CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION CIRCULAR 368 APRIL, 1947 CALIFORNIA BARTLETT PEARS ECONOMIC STATUS, 1946-47 SIDNEY HOOS AND S. W. SHEAR CALIFORNIA BARTLETT PEAR UTILIZATION and FARM PRICE 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 THE COLLEGE ; OF. AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY BARTLETTS . . . are the most important variety of pear grown on the Pacific Coast, where nearly all of the United States commercial Bartlett crop is produced. California produces about 56 per cent of the Pacific Coast Bartlett crop, Washington, 33 per cent, and Oregon, 11 per cent. What is the Outlook for California Pear Growers? Will Bartlett pear production increase in the next jew years? Pacific Coast production may average 10 to 15 per cent more if decreased returns to growers do not cause reduction in yields per acre and in acreage. Where is the potential increase likely to occur? Most of the increase would occur in the Northwest because its trees average younger than California's and should, therefore, increase in pro- ductive capacity for several years more as they grow older. Will there be much increase in California's production? It is not likely that there will be. California Bartlett acreage has about reached its full-bearing capacity, and conditions in recent years were favorable to high yields. High wartime average yields are, therefore, not likely to be exceeded significantly. In fact, the recent high production level can continue only if net returns make it worth while to maintain current acreage and good wartime cultural care, and if weather and pest conditions remain favorable. Are new plantings advisable? Extensive new plantings of Bartlett pears do not now appear justified. However, some new plantings on good sites might be desirable to replace older, low-bearing trees and maintain current bearing acreage. Will California have to meet extensive Northwest competition? Expanding Northwest production of Bartletts will increase competition with California Bartletts, but more for canning pears than for fresh shipments. Northwest fresh shipments compete directly only with late shipments of California Bartletts. « I How much competition may be expected from other varieties? California Bartletts have met almost no competition from other varie- ties except from Hardys. Because fresh exports were cut off during the war, most Hardys were canned in cocktail and competed directly with canning Bartletts. Future competition with Bartletts depends largely upon how much of the prewar English market for fresh Hardys is re- gained. Will the California Bartlett industry return to the lower level of income received before the war? Aside from the size of Bartlett pear crops and production of important competing fruits, the chief factors affecting prices and usage of Bartletts during the next few years will be domestic consumer purchasing power and export demand. While national income remains near the high aver- age of 1943-1946, Bartlett prices and the quantity and proportion canned will probably be nearer the high level of those very prosperous years than the lower level of the less prosperous prewar years. However, during the next few years, foreign demand for luxury food products like pears will probably be much less than during 1934-1938, when 30 per cent of Cali- fornia Bartlett production was exported, chiefly to foreign countries. The countries which were our chief prewar export markets for several years will have to use their restricted foreign exchange almost exclusively to rehabilitate their homes and industries. All facts considered, it seems probable that growers' net returns for Bartlett pears during the next few years may fall considerably below the highly profitable average of the past five years. Production of Bartletts and important competing fruits is expected to average about as high as in recent years. Prices received by growers will probably decline, and at a faster rate than will the present inflated costs of production, marketing, and transportation. Average net returns from Bartletts, therefore, could not continue to be as profitable as those of recent years even if as high a level of national income and consumer purchasing power were main- tained in this country, which is unlikely. The effect of the war on production and prices raises some perplexing questions for the California pear grower. Chiefly, he is anxious to know whether the recent period of wartime prosperity is likely to be followed by a postwar depression such as occurred in the 1920's after World War I. This report is presented in an attempt to clarify the situation and indicate the outlook for the pear grower, particularly in the Bartlett pear industry. Varieties other than Bartletts are considered to the extent necessary to understand the Bartlett situation. In order to provide a basis for evaluating past de- velopments and the current status, the report includes an examination of trends in production, utilization, and prices. With the statistical trends and other information as a back- ground, the final section presents comments on the general outlook for the California Bartlett pear industry. o Mr. Hoos is Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Associate Economist in the Experiment Station, and Associate Economist on the Giannini Foundation for Agricultural Economics. Mr. Shear is Associate Economist in the Experiment Station and Associate Economist on the Giannini Foundation for Agricultural Economics. CALIFORNIA BARTLETT PEARS: ECONOMIC STATUS, 1946-47 SIDNEY HOOS AND S. W. SHEAR PRODUCTION TRENDS Most of the pear trees in the United States are located on the Pacific Coast, but there are some in New York, Michigan, and around the Great Lakes. Those in the eastern states, although substantial in number, are largely scattered and are generally of noncommercial interest. From 1930 to 1945, the total number of pear trees (bearing and nonbearing) decreased as follows : the United States, 35 per cent ; California, 43 per cent ; Washington and Oregon, 19 per cent ; outside the Pacific Coast, 35 per cent. Such contraction is typical of practically all producing areas, commercial and noncommercial, and was due to depressed prices in the 1930's, the elimination of a considerable acreage of low-yielding orchards and of trees on the wrong rootstock, and losses from pear blight. The severe blight epidemic in 1930 accounted for the removal of almost 4,000 acres in Sacramento County alone. Many growers also removed blocks of trees which had been propagated on Japanese root and which were beginning to show evidences of the black end disease. Considering the number of trees not of bearing age distinct from those of bearing age gives a different and more significant picture of how the geo- graphical distribution of pear trees has changed during the 1930-1940 period. Some major features of the change are illustrated by the figures in table 1, which show the percentage changes from 1930 in the number of bearing and nonbearing pear trees. The number of trees of nonbearing age decreased in all the chief producing states in the country and especially in the Northwest. The decline from 1930 to 1935 was generally greater than from 1935 to 1940. Table 1 GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF PEAR TREES Number of trees Of nonbearing age Of bearing age 1935 ■ 1940 1935 1940 Percentage change from 1930 Pacific Coast -57 -68 -40 -52 -20 -35 -48 -80 -84 -74 -84 -57 -34 -61 + 4 - 3 +22 +23 +20 + 4 + 4 -16 California -26 Northwest + 6 Washington + 5 Oregon + 7 Other States ... -29 United States -23 [5] California Experiment Station Circular 368 FIGURE I Harvested Production of Pears, United States, Pacific Coast, and California 9001 1935 CROP -YEAR Production of pears on the Pacific Coast has grown at a faster rate than for the country as a whole, but California pro- duction has not increased as rapidly as the rest of the Pacific Coast. From 1930 to 1935, the number of bearing trees increased slightly in the United States as a whole. It increased substantially in Washington and Ore- gon, but decreased slightly in California, so that the slight increase (4 per cent) for the Pacific Coast as a whole was equal to that for the entire country. During 1935-1940, however, the trend, except for California, reversed itself. By 1940, California had only about three fourths as many pear trees of bear- ing age as in 1930. In comparison, Washington and Oregon in 1940 had, as a whole, about 6 per cent more pear trees of bearing age than in 1930. Pear acreage decreased greatly after 1930 . . . production increased sharply, mainly on the Pacific Coast Production of All Pears. — Some major trends in pear production are outlined in figure 1, which shows annual production since 1919 for the United States as a whole, the Pacific Coast, and California. There have been wide fluctuations in production from year to year, but the trend has been upward. Although California's production began to increase at a slower California Bartlett Pears 7 rate as early as 1927-1929, the increase in the Pacific Northwest did not begin to taper off until some five years later. During the past ten years, harvested production of pears increased at about the same rate in all three of the Pacific Coast states — California, Oregon, and Washington. Bartlett production has grown more rapidly in the Northwest, but California harvests still lead Production of Pacific Coast Bart- letts. — The relative importance of the three Pacific Coast states as producers of Bartletts is evident from the summary in table 2. Since 1925, Bartlett production has increased most rapidly in Washington and next in Oregon. Whereas during 1925-1929 California produced 69 per cent of the Pacific Coast Bartlett pears, by 1940- 1944 production had dropped to 56 per cent. Although the percentage in- crease of production has been less in California than in the other two states, its production has followed a persistent upward trend over the years, and its volume still exceeds that of the other two states combined. However, the Pacific Northwest will probably continue to gain in relative importance as a producer of Bartlett pears because of its relatively large number of nonbearing and young bearing trees which are increasing in productive capacity. California production has grown greatly since 1942 . . . favorable factors increased yields per acre California Production of Bartletts. — During the fifteen years 1926-1942, California's annual harvested produc- tion of Bartlett pears averaged about 200,000 short tons per crop year. The production harvested since 1942, how- ever, has been at a substantially higher level, with a succession of several years of bountiful crops. This production pattern for California Bartletts has been markedly different from the pattern for other varieties. Table 2 PACIFIC COAST BARTLETT PEAR PRODUCTION Total California Northwest Crop years Total Washington Oregon Short tons Averages : 1919-1924 162,000 261,900 315,200 349,400 390,900 496,300 494,000 111,100 179,600 208,800 202,800 219,800 295,000 268,000 50,900 82,300 106,400 146,600 171,100 201,300 226,000 37,100 56,900 79,900 108,400 128,400 145,000 169,000 13,800 1925-1929 25,400 1930-1934 26,500 1935-1939 38,200 1940-1944 42,700 Annual : 1945 56.300 1946 57,000 8 California Experiment Station Circular 368 Wartime Influence on Pacific Coast Pear Production. — During the war years, the prewar trends in Pacific Coast pear production did not change much. Although Pacific Coast Bartlett production increased greatly during the war, the prewar trend toward a decline in the proportion of the total crop con- tributed by California continued. Production continued to expand at a more rapid rate in the Northwest. Consequently, California's relative contribution Table 3 PACIFIC COAST PRODUCTION OF PEARS OTHER THAN BARTLETTS Total California Northwest Crop years Total Washington Oregon Short tons Averages : 1921-1924 44,000 72,800 109,300 140,700 125,600 175,000 193,000 12,000 16,800 29,600 31,200 27,000 46,000 42,000 32,000 56,000 79,700 109,500 98,600 129,000 151,000 14,000 20,900 36,200 52,300 41,800 49,000 58,000 18,000 1925-1929 35,100 1930-1934.. 43,500 1935-1939 . 57,200 1940-1944 56,800 Annual: 1945 80,000 1946 93,000 decreased slightly (from 58 per cent to 56 per cent) , being offset by Washing- ton's increase. Oregon produced about the same proportion (11 per cent) of the Pacific Coast's Bartletts as during the prewar years. California Bartletts have met almost no competition from other varieties except Hardys Production of Pacific Coast Pears Other than Bartletts. — In contrast with Bart- letts, other pears produced in the three Pacific Coast states have not tended to follow a persistent upward trend in production. From 1925 to 1938 there was an increasing trend, but thereafter the trends tended to level out. Oregon, the dominant producer of late fall and winter pears, maintained its level of production better than did Washington or California. These trends are sum- marized in table 3. California not only produces fewer late fall and winter pears than the other two Pacific Coast states, but its relative contribution has tended to decline. For example, during 1925-1934, California produced 25 per cent of the Pacific Coast pears other than Bartletts, but in 1935-1944 its proportion declined to 22 per cent. This decline is not large but is an indication of shifts in production. California Production of Pears Other than Bartletts. — California produc- tion of pears other than Bartletts has fluctuated relatively more from year to year than has production of Bartletts. These fall and winter pears have been increasing in relative importance in California although they still amount to California Bartlett Pears 9 only about one sixth of its Bartlett production. Thus, California Bartletts are not only losing in relative importance as compared with Northwest Bartletts, but also are being gained upon by other pears in the state. Wartime Influence on Production Other than Bartletts. — California's relative position in the production of late pears was about the same during the war period as immediately preceding it, accounting for 21 per cent of the total FIGURE 2 California Pear Acreage, Bearing and Nonbearing, Bartletts and Other Varieties California bearing acreage of both Bartletts and other va- rieties has not changed much since 1941, but nonbearing acreage has decreased greatly. 100.0 -<—> S — _^ BARTLETTS -" y/^TOTAL / OTH ER VARIET ES ~^ TOTAL- V) BARTLETTS-*-.. \ < \\ § o \\ V "N OTHER VARIETIES — r~*\ \ BEARING \ NONBEAF X 0.1 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 (950 CROP- YEAR Coast production during 1940-1944, as compared with 22 per cent during 1935-1939. However, Oregon's contribution increased from 41 per cent in 1935-1939 to 45 in 1940-1944, with a corresponding decrease in Washington. CALIFORNIA ACREAGE, PLANTINGS, AND YIELDS Bearing acreage was maintained in recent years . . . plantings were small . . . nonbearing acreage declined Bearing Acreage.— The rise and decline in California bearing acreage of pears is shown in fig- ure 2, which outlines the trends for both Bartletts and other varieties. Total pear acreage rose sharply after World War I and reached a peak in 1933. The sharp rise was mostly a result of plantings induced largely by the relatively high prices during and after the 10 California Experiment Station Circular 368 first World "War. Significant increases occurred in both Bartletts and other varieties, since growers apparently expected the high prices of World War I and the following years to continue. But with the great depression of the early 1930's, and a drastic decline in the market prices of pears, along with the prices of other agricultural commodities, a substantial contraction in pear acreage resulted. This contraction, due to pullings and decreased plantings, continued until 1942, when the acreage began to increase slightly. The patterns of acreage are similar for Bartlett pears and other varieties in their rise, decline, and then slight increase during the past several years. Table 4 CALIFORNIA PEAR PLANTINGS Bartletts Hardy Other varieties Total Year of report Acres 1936 159 36 17 212 1937 269 . .* * 379 1938 205 40 46 291 1939 92 7 86 185 1940 52 77 4 2 4 10 60 1941 89 1942 273 12 285 1943 99 12 3 114 1944 105 3 108 1945 76 22 98 * Data not at hand for Hardy and other varieties separately. Nonbearing Acreage. — Data on California nonbearing acreage, Bartletts and other varieties, available for years since 1936, are shown in figure 2. They show a marked decrease in nonbearing acreage. Comparison of the trends in bearing and nonbearing acreage (fig. 2) indicates that increased pear pro- duction in later years can result only from : (1) new plantings, (2) increased yields from younger standing acreage as it approaches full-bearing capacity, and (3) increased yields from improved cultural practices and orchard man- agement (see section on yields, p. 11). Plantings. — Table 4 shows that new plantings of pears in California have been relatively insignificant during the past ten years. Furthermore, there has been no persistent trend ; the acreage newly planted has fluctuated fairly widely from year to year. A low point was reached in 1940, when only 60 acres were planted. Since then, there has been only a slight revival in plantings with no definite trend apparent. The insignificance of newly planted acreage is also emphasized by comparison with the present total acreage (fig. 2) . Wartime Influence on Acreage. — In contrast with declining bearing acre- age from 1934 to 1942, during the war period California bearing acreage of pears increased. Although the rise was slight, it was a reversal of the prewar California Bartlett Pears 11 trend. The very small increase in bearing acreage was primarily due to re- duced pulling of old, poor trees because wartime high prices made them temporarily profitable. Nonbearing acreage continued to decrease during the war, but this was a projection of the prewar trend. Total acreage (bearing plus nonbearing) continued to decline in the war years, but at a much slower rate FIGURE 3 Yield per Bearing Acre of California Pears: Bartletts and Other Varieties 8.0 7.0 6.0 oc 5.0 o tr us a. to 4.0 § 3.0 2.0 1.0 - BARTLETTS -^ J *••• • - ■ • - ■ 1 ^* 1 ♦ • / ••••»• - / \ / '. v^\ / : / • * / *\ • - • • ♦»* - \ ^ OTHER THAN BARTLETTS - - - 19 30 19: 35 19' »0 19- *5 I9E CROP-YEAR Since 1935, the yields per bearing acre of both California Bartletts and other varieties have followed a rising trend, and in 1945 were more than double the yields of ten years earlier. than previously. These wartime developments in acreage were of a similar character in both Bartlett pears and other varieties. It is clear that as a result of the war, the decline in total acreage was retarded. Yields. — The preceding figures and comments on trends in acreage and production serve as a basis for considering California yields of pears. The trend in California yield per bearing acre, for both Bartletts and other pears, is shown in figure 3. A marked upward trend in Bartlett yields has occurred, especially since 1935. This upward trend is the result of numerous factors : several seasons favor- able to good crops; improved cultural care and pest and disease control; 12 California Experiment Station Circular 368 elimination of some orchards on poor land and of trees on Japanese root- stock; the almost universal use of hormone sprays, which reduce losses from dropping- and hold the fruit on the tree until it reaches its maximum size ; the increasing proportion of the crop canned which is held on the trees until it is larger than fruit picked somewhat less mature for fresh shipment ; and, prob- ably most important of all, the fact that a larger proportion of the trees are approaching maximum bearing age. For pear varieties other than Bartletts, the trend in yield follows that of Bartletts except for the years 1941-1944. During that three-year period, the crops of other pears were relatively small, due primarily to unfavorable grow- ing conditions rather than reduced bearing capacity. Effect of the War on Yields. — California Bartlett yields per bearing acre have been very high in recent years, and since 1943 have exceeded those of any prewar year. This was true even in 1944 when the yield was much less than in 1943 or 1945. Bartlett yields averaged 6.3 short tons during 1941-1945 as compared with 4.8 short tons during 1936-1940 — an increase of about 30 per cent. In each of the three years, 1943, 1945, and 1946, they averaged 7 tons or more, reaching a peak of 7.7 tons in 1945. Yields of California pears other than Bartletts were not outstanding during the war period, and were much more erratic than Bartlett yields. The yield of California fall and winter pears during the prewar years 1936-1940 averaged 4.4 tons as compared with 4.7 tons per bearing acre during 1941-1945. During all of the war years, yields of late pears were much below those of Bartletts. However, in both 1945 and 1946 they were 7.5 tons per bearing acre, as com- pared with an average of about 7.4 tons for Bartletts for those two years. UTILIZATION TRENDS Canned Bartletts have increased Pacific Coast Utilization. — For greatly ... the Pacific Coast pack has a few years after World War I, more than doubled in 25 years both fresh shipping and process- ing of Bartletts on the Pacific Coast increased rapidly, along with total production. After 1925, however, fresh shipments increased very little, while canning rose rapidly, absorbing nearly all the great expansion in production except the relatively small amount utilized for drying — about 10 per cent. The tonnage canned rose from about 97,000 a year for 1925-1929 to 152,000 for 1935-1939 ; the proportion canned, from about 37 per cent to nearly 46 per cent (as shown in table 5) . The propor- tion of the Bartlett crop shipped fresh declined. However, the quantity fluctu- ated around a fairly constant average level of about 142,000 tons. Fresh utilization rose from an average of 144,000 tons in 1935-1939 to 153,000 for 1940-1944, primarily because of a marked increase in total pro- duction and in spite of government pressure for canning and reduced fresh exports. The proportion shipped fresh actually declined from 43 per cent for 1935-1939 to 40 per cent for 1940-1944. The tonnage and proportion of the crop dried was lowered, primarily by the great increase in the demand for canned and fresh fruit, and partly by the wartime loss of export outlets. California Bartlett Pears 13 Hence, both a larger quantity and a larger proportion went into fresh and canning outlets, the increase in canning being the greatest, chiefly because of favorable price ceilings designed to meet the large military needs in 1943 and 1944 and partly because of the loss of European export outlets for the fresh fruit. During 1940-1944 an average of 212,000 tons were utilized for canning, or 55 per cent of the Bartlett crop. In addition, 12,000 tons a year of other varieties were pushed into canning on the Pacific Coast because of wartime loss of European export outlets for the fresh fruit and the big military and civilian demand for canned pears and mixed fruits. Table 5 UTILIZATION OF PACIFIC COAST BARTLETT PEARS Crop years Percentage of production used for Canning Fresh shipping Drying Averages : 1919-1924 30 59 11 1925-1929 37 54 9 1930-1934 41 49 10 1935-1939 46 43 11 1940-1944 55 40 5 Annual : 1945 44 50 6 1946 52 44 4 Pacific Coast Canned Bartletts. — A significant picture of trends in the pack and movement of Pacific Coast canned pears is shown in table 6. Straight canned pears are packed almost wholly from Bartletts on the Pacific Coast, and usually constitute about 90 per cent of the total national canned-pear pack. Table 6 shows the very rapid growth in Pacific Coast canned pears as such, exclusive of the increasingly large quantities that have been canned for salad, cocktail, and other mixed fruits during the past twenty years. The straight canned pack of Bartletts has grown so much more rapidly and steadily in the Northwest than in California primarily because all of the Northwest Bartletts have been canned directly as pears while California has diverted an increasing proportion — over half — of her canned tonnage into fruit cocktail and fruits for salad during the past ten years. The contribution of Oregon and Washing- ton to the straight pack of canned pears has risen from only about 35 per cent of a 2,100,000 case pack on the Pacific Coast in 1922-1924 to over 65 per cent of recent packs averaging nearly 5 million cases. Over 75 per cent of the 1946 pack of about 5,500,000 cases was canned in the Northwest. A study of the following table shows that before the war, Pacific Coast shipments of canned Bartletts to domestic markets increased relatively more rapidly than exports to foreign countries. During 1922-1924 about 50 per cent was exported as compared with only about 35 per cent during 1934-1938. The drastic reduction in regular exports during the war was more than offset 14 California Experiment Station Circular 368 by the large government requisitions for war services. These took such a large part of the wartime packs that shipments for domestic civilian consumption declined from the prewar record of 4.7 million cases from the 1941 pack to only 1.2 million cases in 1944. Shipments for domestic consumption from the 1945 pack were about 4,200,000 cases, or somewhat less than the peak in 1941. Table 6 PACIFIC COAST CANNED BARTLETT PACK, SHIPMENTS, AND PRICES* (Thousands of cases, equivalent twenty-four No. iy 2 cans) Pack, total California Northwest Canners' carry-in Available for shipment Canners' shipments To domestic markets Exports and war services . . Prices Canners' f.o.b. (dollars per case) Canning to California grow ers (dollars per ton) Pack years beginning June 1 Averages 1922- 1924 2,088 1,377 711 200 2,288 2,088 1,037 1,051 5.09 48.00 1925- 1929 3,530 2,053 1,477 284 3,814 3,350 1,888 1,462 4.66 51.00 1930- 1933 3,821 1,757 2,064 786 4,607 3,991 2,394 1,597 2.87 19.00 1934- 1938 4 700 1,918 2,782 904 5,604 4,674 3,089 1,585 2.95 25.00 1940- 1944 4,964 1,677 3,287 786 5,750 4,930 3,130 1,800 4.70 55.00 Annual 1945 4,465 1,475 2,990 430 4,895 4,655 4,200 455 5.50 73.00 1946 f 5,524 1,324 4,200 240 5,764 7.00 91.00 * California pack and shipments to domestic markets include only the smaU part of the California pack that is repacked in manufacturing fruit salad and cocktail, as well as the California pears that are canned directly as pears. California pears used directly in the manufacture of fruit salad and cocktail are excluded from figures in the table. The exports and war services data exclude pears used in canned fruit salad and cock- tail, but they include lend-lease shipments during 1940-1945. Shipments to domestic markets during 1940-1945 reflect civilian consumption only. t Data for 1946, except California pack, are preliminary estimates. Domestic consumption from the 1946 pack will probably be a little smaller, and movement for export and war services slightly larger than for 1945. Per- capita consumption of canned pears increased steadily before the war, aver- aging nearly three times as much during 1936-1940 as twenty years earlier. Prices received by California growers for canned pears followed the typical pattern of falling to a depression low during 1930-1933 and then gradually recovering. Encouraged in some war years by ceiling prices favoring the large packs needed for military purposes, the average pack canned during 1940- 1944 exceeded that of any previous year. Under ceiling prices on canned pears, California growers received $64.00 a ton for canning fruit in 1943. Favored by an emergency rise in the ceiling price for canned pears, in 1944 California Bartletf Pears 15 canning- Bartlett prices to growers rose to $80.00 a ton. In 1945 they averaged $74.00 a ton and in 1946, with no ceiling prices, about $92.00 a ton. A larger proportion of the Northwest Bartlett crop is used for canning than of the California crop Comparison of California and Northwest Utilization. — During the past twenty-five years the in- crease in Bartlett production in Oregon and Washington together has been almost as great as in California, while the rate of increase has been so much more rapid that the proportion of Pacific Coast crop contributed by the Northwest has risen from about 30 Table 7 UTILIZATION OF CALIFORNIA BARTLETT PEARS Crop years Percentage of production used for Canning Fresh shipping Drying Averages : 1919-1924 29 31 28 35 53 44 54 56 56 56 47 38 48 39 15 1925-1929 13 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 Annual: 1945 16 18 9 9 1946 7 per cent during 1919-1921 to about 45 per cent for recent years. The North- west ordinarily dries almost no pears, so its enlarged Bartlett output has prac- tically all been utilized for fresh shipments and canning. Much the greater part of the Bartlett increase in both the Northwest and California has been canned, thereby greatly increasing the direct competition between these two producing areas. Between World "Wars I and II, Northwest canning Bartletts rose from 30 per cent of the tonnage canned on the Pacific Coast to 55 per cent (1935-1939), but during 1941-1945 declined to 44 per cent. During 1935- 1939, over 60 per cent of the Northwest Bartlett crop was canned as compared with about 35 per cent of the California crop, but during 1941-1945, 55 per cent of the Northwest and 52 per cent of the California Bartlett crop were canned. A majority of the acreage in the Northwest, particularly in Washing- ton, produces a better canning than shipping Bartlett. Wartime influence increased canned California Utilization Trends. — California Bartletts . . . decreased Trends in the proportion of Cali- fresh shipments and amounts dried fornia Bartlett pears utilized for canning, fresh shipping, and dry- ing are summarized in table 7. From 1919 to 1934 the proportion of the Cali- fornia Bartlett pear crop utilized in each of the three outlets did not change much : canned absorbed about 30 per cent, fresh shipments about 55 per cent, 16 California Experiment Station Circular 368 and dried pears the remainder of about 15 per cent (see fig. 4) . But the rising demand for canned fruits for salad and cocktail just before the recent war resulted in an increase in tonnage and proportion canned. Drying also took a slightly larger proportion, while fresh use declined in percentage terms. Dur- FIGURE 4 Utilization of California Bartlett Pears 150 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 CROP-YEAR Since 1935, the volume of California Bartlett pears used fresh has varied around a level trend, the volume canned has increased sharply, and the volume dried has decreased. ing the recent war, even with a big increase in Bartlett production, the pro- portion canned increased further, chiefly because price ceilings favored the canning of pears in order to meet the large military requirements. The propor- tion shipped fresh continued to decline, while the percentage dried decreased markedly and remained low after the war in 1945 and 1946. Ceiling prices on the 1945 Bartlett crop favored fresh shipping over canning enough so that fresh shipments reached an all-time high. This was partly California Bartlett Pears 17 responsible for holding down the quantity and proportion of the crop canned even though canners wanted to pack more. In 1946, with no government re- strictions on prices or use, the state canned Bartlett pack reached a record and again utilized about the wartime average of over 50 per cent of a large crop. During the next few years the proportion of California Bartletts canned is likely to continue to be higher than before the war as long as consumer pur- chasing power remains high enough to support a good demand for canned fruits. Exports of canned pears will probably be considerably smaller than in prewar years, as our former chief export outlet, the United Kingdom, prob- ably will use but little of its restricted foreign exchange to purchase luxury products like canned fruits. Before the war it took a very large majority of our canned pear exports, which absorbed about 32 per cent of the California canned pack during the five years 1934-1938. Dried Pears. — California produces practically all of this country's dried pears and over 90 per cent of world production. Furthermore, dried pears are made almost entirely from the Bartlett variety. Thus, trends in United States dried pear production and exports indicate not only California trends, but also trends in utilization of Bartletts in drying. The annual tonnage of Bart- letts dried, shown in figure 4, followed an upward trend until 1939. The decline in absolute and relative importance of dried pears, since then, as an outlet for harvested production was due only partly to the wartime loss of a major portion of the European export market. Another important factor was the relatively greater increase in the demand for fresh and canning pears, leaving fewer of the low-grade pears for drying. This relative decrease in the demand for dried pears occurred even though government purchases for military and lend-lease purposes replaced the prewar export outlet during the war years. The beginning of World War II in Europe was immediately reflected by a large drop in the volume of pears dried, since the export market was the domi- nant outlet, and the demand for canned and fresh Bartletts increased strongly. Effect of the War on Dried Utilization. — The dried utilization of California Bartletts became relatively much less important during the war (see fig. 4). In 1940-1944, only 9 > per cent of the Bartlett crop was dried, as compared with 18 per cent during 1935-1939. Of the 1945 and 1946 crops, only 8 per cent was dried, showing that the prewar proportion was far from achieved. The decrease in percentage of the crop dried was due not only to loss of export markets (see fig. 5) but also to an increased demand for canned pears and fresh shipments, leaving a smaller residual part of the crop for drying. Still another reason for such reduction is the fact that labor costs in the dried-fruit industry have risen more sharply than have the prices of the product. Canned Pears. — The marked increase, since 1939, in the proportion of har- vested production canned is in large part attributable to the demand of the armed services for canned fruits, as well as the increased demand of the general public for canned pears and particularly for mixed canned fruits. The ton- nage and proportion of the Bartlett crop canned in 1945 fell below the war- time average largely because ceiling prices favored fresh shipments. With no ceilings in 1946, a record tonnage of pears was canned. 18 California Experiment Station Circular 368 As shown in figure 4 (p. 16), the volume of California Bartletts utilized in canning has had an irregular but phenomenally large growth since 1919. After attaining (in an erratic manner) a peak in 1928, there was a decline to a low in 1932, followed by a large increase in 1933 and again in 1934, when the maximum up to that time was reached. But 1935 was another low-volume FIGURE 5 United States Exports of Dried Pears* by Major Areas of Destination OTHER THAN EUROPE 1940 YEARS BEGINNING JULY European countries are our major export markets for dried pears. *Do not include exports of dried pears in dried fruit compote or salad, which in prewar years (1934-38) were about 25 per cent of the total dried pears exported. year, only to be followed by a sharp recovery in 1936 and additional increases thereafter. During the war years of 1941-1945, record California packs were canned, reflecting in part the demands of the armed forces. Loss of fresh export outlets during Canning of Fall and Winter Pears.— the war resulted in the canning The wartime loss of European mar- of most Hardys for fruit cocktail kets for our fresn pears resulted in a marked shift of fall and winter pears into canning, particularly Hardys. Before the war over 99 per cent of Pacific Coast production of pears other than Bartletts were marketed as fresh pears, and about 46 per cent of the fresh shipments of these varieties were exported during 1934-1938, nearly all to Europe. The Hardy variety was most depend- ent on foreign outlets, about 90 per cent being exported, mostly to the United Kingdom. The small remainder marketed here at home met keen competition from the plentiful supply of the more popular Bartlett. California Bartlett Pears 19 When the English market was cut off by the war, it was found that some shipping varieties of pears were satisfactory for dicing for canned fruit cock- tail. In 1940, therefore, a big increase occurred in California utilization of these pears for canning, particularly the Hardy which lost its fresh outlet in foreign markets almost completely after the English entered the war. Before World War II, nearly all the pears canned on the Pacific Coast were Bartletts. During 1930-1939 an average of only about 1,000 tons a year of other varieties was canned, or less than 1 per cent of the 135,000 ton annual average Coast pack during that decade. During 1940-1944, however, approxi- mately 12,000 tons a year of other varieties were canned, or slightly over 5 per cent of the 224,000 ton average of all pears canned on the Pacific Coast. Table 8 CALIFORNIA PEARS OTHER THAN BARTLETTS CANNED, 1939-1945 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 Percentages All 32 68 52 43 48 44 Hardy 45 99 99 79 83 80 Other 16 42 10 3 1 9 Nearly all of this wartime increase in canning of other varieties was in Cali- fornia, and approximately 9,700 tons, or over 80 per cent of the 12,000 ton average, were Hardys. In both 1941 and 1942 about 99 per cent of the Califor- nia crops of Hardy pears were canned ; and during the five years 1940-1944, the amount canned averaged 76 per cent. Most of the Hardys canned since 1939 have gone into fruit cocktail. Small quantities of this and other late shipping varieties have also been used in canned baby food. Much of the Winter Nelis crop from Placerville and Placer County districts was so utilized in 1945. Table 8 shows the percentage of California pears other than Bartletts canned in recent years. The extent to which Hardys and other late shipping pears will continue to compete with Bartletts in canning depends largely on how much of the fresh market for these pears (1) is regained abroad and (2) is retained at home. An increasingly large percentage of California pears has been canned in both fruit cocktail and salad Increasing Mixed-Fruit Canned Outlet. — During the past twenty- five years, canning of pears in Cali- fornia expanded less rapidly than in the Northwest, and an increasingly large part of the state's canning pears has been packed in mixed fruit — mostly cocktail and for salad. As a result, the straight pack of canned pears in the Northwest has grown so much more rapidly than in California that the proportion of the Pacific Coast straight- pear pack canned in California declined from 70 per cent for 1919-1921, when there was practically no mixed-fruit pack, to an average of only 35 per cent just before the recent war. An average of about 35,000 tons of California 20 California Experiment Station Circular 368 pears was canned in mixed fruits during 1935-1939, or about one half of the state tonnage of pears canned and about 23 per cent of the Pacific Coast total. The canned pack of mixed fruits continued to increase at an even more rapid rate during the recent war, utilizing about 94,000 tons of pears a year during 1941-1945, or nearly 70 per cent of the total quantity of pears canned in the state. In 1946, the peak pack to date of mixed fruits, mostly cocktail, absorbed about 125,000 tons of pears or over 75 per cent of the state tonnage canned. Consumption of fresh Bartletts California Fresh Bartlett Ship- has increased . . . proportion used ments. — After World War I, Calif or- fresh has decreased . . . shipments nia fresh Bartlett shipments to both out of the state have declined interstate and intrastate markets rose at a slightly more rapid rate than pro- duction until about 1930. Since then, total fresh shipments have not kept pace with, nor followed the general tendencies of production; the proportion used fresh has averaged much less, largely because interstate shipments, which account for a large majority of the fresh consumption, have been at a much lower level than formerly. In contrast to interstate Bartlett shipments, fresh consumption within California (including Bartletts consumed on farms where grown) since 1930 has continued to follow the general trend of state produc- tion to a considerable extent. Consequently, the people of the state, on the average, have eaten a larger proportion of the crop as fresh fruit than for- merly. Both increasing population and a high per-capita consumption have contributed to the upward swings and high level of fresh Bartletts consumed in California. After World I, California fresh Bartlett shipments rose, along with produc- tion, to an average for 1926-1931 of about 110,000 tons, of which 86 per cent was shipped out of the state (including exports to foreign countries) and 14 per cent consumed in the state (including the quantities used on farms where grown). Depressed demand and low prices in eastern and foreign markets resulted in a steep decline in interstate shipments to a low in 1935, followed by some recovery. Increased fresh consumption within the state, however, offset only a small part of the decline. Consequently, average shipments fell to 91,000 tons during 1932-1938, or about 50 per cent of the state Bartlett output, Of these shipments, about 18,000 tons were exported to Canada and other foreign markets. Wartime Influence on Fresh Consumption. — In the utilization of Califor- nia Bartletts for fresh consumption, there also occurred a shift during the war years. A relatively smaller proportion of the crop was consumed in fresh form : 38 per cent in 1940-1944, in contrast with 47 per cent during 1935-1939 and 56 per cent during 1919-1934. In 1945, there was a return to the imme- diate prewar distribution, and 48 per cent of the California Bartlett crop was used fresh. In 1946, however, the wartime pattern was closely approximated. California Interstate Fresh Bartlett Shipments. — Interstate shipments of California fresh Bartletts rose along with production until 1930. For the period 1926-1931, they averaged 94,000 tons, or 50 per cent of the state crop. California Bartlett Pears 21 During the depression which followed, Bartlett production in the state receded while interstate shipments fell even more, reaching a low in 1935. Production ever since, however, has trended upward. Interstate Bartlett shipments also recovered somewhat, along with production, until 1938. During the whole period of 1932-1938, the interstate movement averaged about 69,000 tons, or 38 per cent of production. About 14,000 tons of these were exported to Canada and western European markets. During 1939-1942, out-of-state shipments FIGURE 6 United States Exports of Fresh Pears by Major Areas of Destination f OTHER THAN EUROPE y TOTAL U.S. J EXPORTS 1 EUROPE l I 1940 YEARS BEGINNING JULY n s 1950 The United Kingdom and other European countries have been our major export markets ■for fresh pears. fell steeply, averaging only 56,000 tons, or 27 per cent of production. Most of the decrease was in exports to Europe. Under the stimulus of strong domes- tic wartime consumer demand, shipments to the East again tended to swing upward but were retarded by federal controls in 1943 and 1944 designed to stimulate canning for military needs. With a bumper crop and no restrictions on fresh sales, interstate movement in 1945 was nearly as high as the 1930 peak of 116,000 tons, even though European exports had not been regained. The 107,000 tons shipped from the state in 1945 accounted for 37 per cent of the largest crop to date — 295,000 tons. Preliminary estimates indicate that in 1946 about 77,000 tons were shipped fresh out of the state, or about 30 per cent of a Bartlett crop of approximately 265,000 tons. Intrastate Fresh Bartlett Consumption. — Although fresh consumption within the state has been the least important outlet for California Bartletts, it has increased relatively more than total production or than any other outlet 22 California Experiment Station Circular 368 during the past twenty-five years. From 6 per cent of state Bartlett production in 1919-1925, it rose to an average of between 11 and 12 per cent for the past fifteen years. The quantity consumed in the state rose steeply from about 6,000 tons a year in 1919 and 1920 to about 22,000 tons in 1931. It remained at about this level on an average for over ten years and then made a notable rise to a peak of 31,000 tons in 1945. Before 1929, the fresh Bartletts consumed in California accounted for about 12 per cent of the state's total fresh Bartlett shipments and since then, an average of over 25 per cent. Most of the increase in consumption within the state before 1940 was the result of a rapid rise in per-capita consumption from an average of 1.8 pounds for 1919-1924 to 3.7 pounds for 1930-1939. During World War II, a decline in the per-capita consumption to an average of about 3.0 pounds was more than offset by the rapid increase in the population of the state resulting largely from wartime industrial expansion. Wartime Influences on Inter- and Intrastate Shipments. — Wartime influ- ences, chief of which was the loss of European export markets, resulted in a reduction in interstate movement, lowering total shipments for 1939-1942 to an average of about 77,000 tons, or 38 per cent of production. An upward swing in both interstate and intrastate fresh shipments brought the 1943-1946 aver- age to nearly 110,000 tons, or 42 per cent of production. This is the same as the previous peak average tonnage shipped fresh during 1926-1931 which, how- ever, included a significantly larger quantity of exports to European coun- tries than can reasonably be expected during the next few years. Large quantities of Bartletts Unharvested Production. — The were unharvested in the 1930's . . . volume of California Bartlett pears mainly due to depressed markets not harvested reached very signifi- cant amounts in some prewar years. For example, as much as 59,000 tons were unharvested in 1932. This was almost twice as many tons (fresh weight) as were dried in that year, and 59 per cent more than were canned. Although conditions in 1932 are, of course, an extreme example, other years experienced conditions where relatively large quantities of Bartlett pears were not harvested; for instance, 30,000 tons in 1930, 15,000 tons in 1931, 33,000 tons in 1933, 10,000 tons in 1937, and 16,000 tons in 1938. It is of some importance that even in 1945, which was a year of generally good business conditions, high consumer incomes, and relatively high prices, as many as 8,000 tons were unharvested. This illustrates that conditions other than market prices — for example, available labor, mate- rials, and their costs — may result in supplies produced but not harvested. Before the war, most fresh and Exports of Fresh and Dried Pears. dried pear exports went to Europe, -The importance of prewar exports chiefly to the United Kingdom pf fresh pears from California is indicated by the fact that during 1934-1938, they averaged about 31,000 tons, or about 26 per cent of the total California fresh-pear shipments. Prewar exports of California fresh Bartletts were approximately 14,000 tons a year, or about 15 per cent of the state's total California Bartlett Pears 23 fresh shipments of this variety. Europe was, by far, the largest importing area during the same period, taking an average of 24,000 tons a year, or about 20 per cent of California fresh shipments. The rise and decline of total fresh- pear exports from the United States is shown in figure 6 for the period from the crop year 1930-31 to the crop year 1944r-45. Previous to World War II, the United Kingdom was the largest export market for fresh pears, accounting for 55 per cent of the United States exports. The loss of the European market, because of the war, resulted in a heavy shrinkage of exports. For example, exports averaged 65,400 tons per year during 1935-1939, as compared with 15,000 short tons per year during 1940-1944. During the prewar years, 1934^1938, California dried an average of 32,000 tons (fresh weight) of pears annually. Of the quantity exported, 70 per cent went to Europe and the remaining 6 per cent went to other countries. The breakdown of dried-pear exports, by major areas of destination, and certain important features of the dried pear export industry are shown in figure 5 (p. 18). During the prewar years until 1934-35, Germany was the most important single export outlet for dried pears. However, after 1934-35, Ger- many ceased to be an important export market for our dried fruit, due to many factors, chiefly exchange control and special trade agreements. For- tunately, the decline in the German market was offset by an increase in exports to other European countries, especially to France and the Netherlands. Because of the great importance of the European market as an outlet for dried pears, the future of the dried-pear industry hinges primarily upon the resumption of international trading and the role of dried fruit, as well as fruit in general, in exports. Some pertinent points on this topic will be con- sidered below in connection with a general appraisal of the outlook for Cali- fornia Bartletts during the next several years. AUCTION PRICES AND ON-TREE RETURNS Auction prices of fresh Bartletts Delivered Auction Prices. — Fig- slumped in the 30's . . . war pushed ure 7 presents weighted-average them much above depression levels season auction prices for Califor- nia and Northwest Bartlett pears, respectively. The two price series followed the same general trend, declining from the post World War I period to depression lows, with some recovery before national defense and World War II activities caused prices to advance sharply. There were, however, some important differences in the behavior of Bartlett prices and of other varieties. The auction prices of California and Northwest Bartletts moved very closely together, with California Bartletts selling at a premium in most years. During 1922-1929, auction prices of California Bartletts averaged about $3.00 per box, ranging from $2.75 per box for 1922 to $3.60 per box for 1929. Beginning in 1930, there was a succession of years with depressed prices, with a low point of $1.93 per box for 1932. Not until 1942, after this country declared war, did auction prices of California Bartlett pears exceed those of the prosperous 1920's. The 1943 price averaged $4.98 per box, over two and one-half times as much as the 1932 depression low point. The large crops of 1944 and 1945 24 California Experiment Station Circular 368 experienced successively lower prices, but were still much higher than for any year between the two world wars. There were ceiling prices for fresh sales in 1943 and 1944 but not in 1945. In 1946, with no government controls and a large crop, Bartlett auction prices rose to $4.43 per box. Auction prices of California Bosc and Hardy pears, as shown in figure 8, followed a downward trend from 1922 to 1933. They remained relatively low FIGURE 7 Prices of California and Northwest Fresh Bartlett Pears* 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 i / *\ / \ \ /l 1 CALIFORNIA AT AUCTION . A / Vi / A h: \ WASH., ORE., AT AUCTION CALIFORNIA .•♦* FOB. / ' A \J ■ V \ .-. i • ** • i f\/f- ;? \/-- n i * r : »* A .* "•! • • • • < > V •• •*• •* • ** ...-, /-. • • • • • a 1 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 CROP-YEAR Prices of California fresh shipping Barletts did not increase sharply until after our country entered World War li. *Washington and Oregon prices are for New York auction sales. California auction prices are for all auction sales and f.o.b. prices are based on them. during the 1933-1940 period and then rose sharply along with the prices of all fresh and canning pears during the war. Hardys reached a peak of $5.06 per box in 1943, declined during the next two years ; in 1945 they averaged $3.91 per box, which was higher than any of the interwar years except 1923. However, wartime prices of fresh Hardys may not be significant since so few were shipped fresh. The Bosc prices followed closely those of Hardys ; a major difference was that Bosc prices averaged higher in 1945 than in 1944. Auction prices of pears attained a level during the war years which was higher than those prevailing for about a quarter of a century. Recent high price levels resulted more from war conditions than from a fundamental change in consumer habits or in basic characteristics of the pear industry. California Bartlett Pears 25 Wartime Effects on Auction Prices. — The war years saw delivered auction prices of California pears reach unprecedented high levels. Beginning with the crop year 1942, Bartlett auction prices rose sharply to a peak in 1943, then receded in the following two years. The 1943 peak was partly due to the fact that pear production was abnormally low in that year. The 1945 weighted- average season price, although lower than the two preceding years, was above 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 FIGURE 8 New York Auction Prices of California Hardy and Bosc Pears - ■ i * v f\ 4 BOSC V fl \VU h h fl V ^ HARDY \/ \i V V v \\ ii /I / n a. /^\ / J - r \\ - - ' ' ' , , . , .... .... ■— »— 1 1925 1930 1940 1945 1950 1935 CROP YEAR Prices of California late fall and winter pears were at a depressed level from 1930 through 1940. that of any of the years prior to the war. Hardy and Bosc pears followed the same general pattern. California Bartlett equivalent f .o.b. prices (auction less transportation and commission charges) also rose to unprecedented heights during the war period. Auction prices probably would have reached even higher levels during some war years if there had been no price ceilings. On-tree returns followed general trend of auction prices through de- pression slump to wartime boom On-tree Returns to Growers. — Al- though auction prices are a use- ful indicator of the general level of wholesale prices of California fresh pears in eastern markets, they should not be confused with returns to Cali- fornia growers. Commission charges, transportation costs, packing, picking, and hauling costs, along with other marketing charges, must be met. More 26 California Experiment Station Circular 368 valid and representative measures of returns to growers (but not measures of net returns) for fresh California Bartletts and Hardys are the derived series called "equivalent on-tree returns to growers" pictured in figures 9 and 10 for crop years 1922-1945. For comparison, the delivered auction prices are also shown in those figures. It should be noted that the on-tree returns are not only at the orchard level but are also for all fresh shipments both within and out of FIGURE 9 Auction Prices and On-tree Returns for California Bartlett Pears Marketed Fresh* 5.0 ' AUCTION 4.0" X o CO A aA O. / \ J \ J"*\ ON TREE RETURNS _j 2.0- o Q A / \ / > / / / / 1.0" ' 1 "V / / f - ■ i i ■ • • > . . . ' ' 1 ■ ■ ' i 1925 1930 1935 CROP-YEAR 1940 1945 1950 Highest season auction price for California fresh Bartlett shipments occurred in 1943, and then declined from the wartime peak. Highest on-tree returns occurred in 1944. *The auction prices are for all auction markets, and the on-tree returns reflect all fresh sales in both out-of-state and in-state markets. the state. Auction prices, in contrast, are at the delivered wholesale level and are only for those fresh shipments actually sold in eastern auction markets. The general movements of auction prices and on-tree returns are broadly similar even though the on-tree returns for all fresh shipments reflect not only eastern auction sales and other out-of-state sales but also the large quan- tity taken by in-state markets. The spread between auction prices and equiva- lent on-tree returns for fruit sold at auction represents harvesting and marketing charges. For Bartletts used in fresh consumption, these charges were relatively stable during 1922-1931, dropped slightly in 1932-1936, then increased during 1937-1940; thereafter they rose substantially. Wartime Effects on On-Tree Returns. — Large wartime increases in auction prices should not be confused with a closer measure of returns to farmers. California Bartlett Pears 27 On-tree returns for California Bartlett pears were at a depressed level during 1930-1940. Beginning with 1941, they began to increase and reached a peak in 1944. It is of importance that Bartlett on-tree returns during the war years did not rise as sharply or as much as auction prices. This is reflected by the fact that the auction on-tree spread, which includes harvesting and marketing costs, increased during the war. But with consideration given to such costs, FIGURE 10 Auction Prices and On-free Returns for California Hardy Pears Marketed Fresh* 1930 i i I i i i i | 1935 1940 CROP-YEAR i | i 1945 Highest season auction price for California Hardy pears occurred in 1943, and then declined from the wartime peak. Highest on-tree returns also occurred in 1943. *The auction prices are for New York auction sales, and the on-tree returns reflect all fresh sales In both out-of-state and in-state markets. California Bartlett pear growers were in a more favorable position (in terms of on-tree returns) during the war period than at any previous time since 1924. On-tree returns to growers of Hardy pears also improved during the war, as compared with the immediately preceding years, but they did not improve relatively as much as Bartletts. In fact, the level attained by on-tree returns to growers of Hardy pears approximated the level prevailing during 1922- 1929. Thus, Hardys regained their predepression status but did not exceed it as did Bartletts. 28 California Experiment Station Circular 368 THE OUTLOOK General Outlook Bartlett pears are a good-time At the outset it is important to ap- crop ... a high consumer income preciate that the general outlook for is reflected in present high prices California Bartlett pears will be de- termined largely by the level of con- sumer income and general business conditions in the country. This is especially true for the major swings, over a period of several years, in prices and returns to growers. Other factors, such as the relative volume of competing fruits (canned and fresh) including fresh peaches and plums as well as Northwest Bartletts shipped during the California Bartlett shipping season, influence prices of and returns to California Bartlett growers, with the effect varying from year to year. Figure 11 (p. 30) illustrates the similarity in general movement of United States nonagricultural income and of the farm value or total returns to growers of California pears. In the figure, the period 1935-1939 is con- sidered as the base period so that the current situation may be contrasted with the immediate prewar and previous situations. It may be noted that from 1919 to 1929 pear growers' returns generally increased along with the index of non- agricultural income. Both series declined thereafter and reached a low during the 1932-1933 depression years, the farm value of California pears dropping relatively more than United States nonagricultural income. After the depres- sion trough, although returns to growers fluctuated from year to year, they followed fairly closely the recovery in nonagricultural income and, during the war years, rose to unprecedented heights. Analyses and historical evidence suggest that farm value or total returns per ton to growers of California pears (including cultural, picking, and harvesting costs) will probably con- tinue to follow, in a general way, the trend of national income. On-Tree Returns. — An alternative and more basic view of the outlook for California Bartlett pears from the standpoint of growers pertains to equiva- lent on-tree returns per ton. Figure 12 compares the on-tree returns to growers for California Bartlett pears (used in fresh consumption) with fruit prices, as a whole, received by United States farmers, and with prices paid by United States farmers, including interest, taxes, and wages to hired labor. Although the latter two series pertain to the United States as a whole rather than to California only, the relations are indicative of the situation in California. Figure 12 shows that per-ton on-tree returns to California growers of Bart- lett pears in recent years increased more, in relation to the 1935-1939 prewar period, than did fruit prices received by United States farmers in general. Al- though prices paid by farmers, including interest, taxes, and wages to hired labor, have increased substantially over the prewar level, they did not increase relatively as much as the equivalent on-tree returns to growers. The indica- tions are reasonably clear that California growers of Bartlett pears generally have attained a more profitable position than they held in the immediate pre- war years. California Bartlett Pears 29 Production There may be some increase in If a decrease in growers' net returns Pacific Coast Bartlett production, does not cause reduction in acreage, but mainly in the Northwest and if yields are maintained during the next few years, Pacific Coast Bartlett production might average 10 to 15 per cent higher. Most of this potential in- crease would occur in Oregon and Washington, as their trees on the average are younger than California's and hence should increase in productive ca- pacity for several years as they grow older. California Bartlett acreage has about reached its potential full-bearing capacity, so that its high wartime yields are unlikely to increase significantly. The state's recent high produc- tion level can therefore be maintained only if weather and pest conditions remain favorable and net returns stay high enough to maintain wartime cul- tural care. Such tentative conclusions, it is emphasized, assume that extensive new plantings will not be undertaken ; if they are, the above conclusions will not be valid and production eventually will increase substantially and have a corresponding depressing effect on prices. Utilization and Outlets Prosperity and depression affect Canned Bartletts. — As previ- canned usage more than fresh . . . ously noted, ceiling prices on the dried use depends on foreign demand 194 ^ crop of Bartletts favored fresh shipping over canning. However, the proportion canned still exceeded substantially the prewar pat- tern. The proportion used fresh in 1945 regained its prewar 1935-1939 aver- age ; but the percentage dried remained at its war-period level. Although the utilization of the 1946 crop returned nearer the wartime pattern, continued canning of such large tonnages of pears may reasonably be expected only if consumer incomes remain near the level of recent years. Dried Pears. — Present indications are that the exports of dried pears may approach their prewar level sooner than exports of fresh or canned but it is unlikely that the proportion dried will average more than the 18 per cent level of 1935-1939. European countries, especially the United Kingdom — the domi- nant prewar importer — may be expected to conserve their foreign exchange and purchasing power for commodities considered more essential than fresh and canned fruits. Dried fruits will likely be preferred by foreign importers because of their relatively high food value per unit of weight and price, as compared with fresh and canned ones. The volume of dried pear exports dur- ing the next several years, however, cannot be accurately predicted. Not only do foreign consumers presently lack adequate purchasing power — a situa- tion which may continue for several years — but the allocation of available exchange and its expenditure on specific items is subject to obtaining import licenses in Great Britain, as well as in other countries which were our leading fruit customers. 30 California Experiment Station Circular 368 Canned Hardys. — The war years saw the utilization of late fall and winter pears, especially the Hardy variety, primarily in canning of fruit salad and cocktail. Since it is now evident that Hardy pears can be successfully canned, it is likely that in the future some will be so utilized, competing, as during the war years, directly with canning Bartletts. Bartletts, however, will make FIGURE 1 1 Total Returns (Farm Value) to California Pear Growers and United States Nonagricultural Income (Index Numbers: 1935-39=100) Compared with the situation in 1935-1939, the farm value of California pears rose much higher during the war years than did United States nonagri- cultural income. up the major proportion of pears canned in the state. The relative volume of Hardys so utilized will depend upon alternative outlets and prices. As long as fresh-pear exports remain at a low level, there will be pressure for Hardys to be canned, since a large majority of these pears were exported to the United Kingdom during prewar years. Fresh Bartletts. — The outlook for California Bartlett pears utilized in fresh consumption may be considered from two viewpoints : those used fresh within the state and those shipped fresh out of state to export markets and eastern states. The volume used fresh within the state may be expected to keep pace with the state's growth in population. The volume shipped fresh out of the state has tended to follow the general level of consumer income and California Bartlett Pears 31 business conditions in the country, indicating that during relatively prosper- ous periods consumers in other states tend to absorb more California fresh Bartletts than in depressed business years. Increased competition between late California and Northwest fresh Bartlett shipments to eastern markets appears to have developed in recent years. Analysis indicates that the volume of North- FIGURE 12 On-tree Returns for California Bartletts, Fruit Prices Received and Prices Paid by U.S. Farmers* (Index Numbers: 1935-39=100) *On-tree returns are for Bartletts used in fresh consumption. Prices paid by United States farmers in- clude prices paid for living, pro- duction, interest, taxes, and wages to hired labor. The on-tree returns are eguivalent on-tree prices, per ton, to California farmers for Bart- letts consumed fresh. Since the in- dexes of prices paid and fruit prices received by United States farmers reflect conditions over the country as a whole rather than California only, such indexes indicate only roughly the conditions faced by California farmers. west Bartletts shipped east during the California Bartlett fresh shipping sea- son affects the prices received for California Bartletts. Such an influence is of importance to California Bartlett growers and shippers since the produc- tion of Bartletts in the Northwest, especially Washington, is increasing con- siderably. Prices and Returns Consumer purchasing power largely determines the demand and profit out- look for California Bartlett pears Analysis shows that the level of consumer income is one of the dominant factors affecting the season average auction prices of California fresh Bartletts as well as packers' f.o.b. prices of canned pears. Thus, the future course of prices for Bartletts used in fresh consumption and in canning depends largely on future business conditions in the country as a 32 California Experiment Station Circular 368 whole and the resulting income available to consumers for allocation among all goods they desire and are able to purchase. As mentioned previously, sup- plies of Northwest Bartletts shipped east affect the prices received for Cali- fornia Bartletts. Also, increasing quantities of pears are being canned in the Northwest. In addition, supplies of fresh and canned plums, peaches, and other canned fruits affect pear prices. It is significant that several important forces influencing Bartlett prices are largely beyond the control of California producers. In fact, the only major price influences over which they can exer- cise some control are the volume, quality, size distribution, and timing of shipments and sales. These partially controllable influences, in combination, have had less effect on prices than have the influences mentioned above, which are beyond the control of growers and shippers. During the war years the on-tree returns to growers for California Bartlett pears were very favorable as compared with the previous ten years, and indica- tions are that net returns also were favorable. One may question what basic factors influencing price are different now from those of the prewar period. Consumer money incomes and the general price level of all goods and agri- cultural products have risen sharply, but prices paid by farmers have also risen, although to a relatively lesser extent. It is impossible to state with cer- tainty what the future course of prices and returns to Bartlett growers will be. However, it may be expected that they will continue to follow closely the gen- eral level of business activity and of fruit prices. In addition, it is not unrea- sonable to expect that the spread between prices received by growers of Bart- letts and their costs of production and harvesting will narrow and return nearer to the relations existing before the w T ar. Whether the on-tree and net returns remain favorable or tend to the depressed level experienced during the 1930's depends, it appears, chiefly on whether the country's business activ- ity and consumer income remain high or fall to a depression level. NOTE Mimeographed copies of the detailed tables upon which this study is based can be obtained by writing to the Giannini Foundation of Agri- cultural Economics. The sources of the data used are various federal, state, and private agencies, and these are set forth in the mimeo- graphed statistical supplement. 7i»!-4.'47(A3150)