Ex Libris C. K. OGDEN \ THE SYSTEM OF THE WEATHER The British Islands. BY MACKENZIE, ilEUTENANT IN THE ROYAL PERTHSHIRE REGIMENT OF MILITIA, LATE TACKSMAN OF CYDERHALL, &C. COUNTY OF SUTHERLAND. PRINTED FOR THE AUTHOR, BY R. MOB. I SON, (OLD BY CONSTABLE & CO. EDINBURGH ; LONGMAN & CO. LONDON J . MORISON, JUNR. & CO., AND C. SIDEY & SON, PERTH, 1821, LIST OF CONTENTS. PREFACE. point of commencement of the Weather Year and the Seasons, PAGI i, Mode of casting die Average from a list of East Wind, if. Part I. TABLES OF THE WEATHER. FIGURE 1 The System of the Winds. . <2,The System of the Lots of the Winds. Annual Rate of Wind f TABLE I. East Wind Cycle of Averages II. Eighteen Year Period ... ... ... .., ,.. III. Sum of Wind, and Detail of Rain, by Seasons ... IV. Annual Detail and Sum of Rain .,, .., .,. V, Number of Days Rain, Frost, $c. by Seasons and Years IV. Number of Days Cloudy and Clear and Days partly both, by Seasons and Years ... ... ... VII. Number of Days Entire East, West, and Variable Wind, by Seasons ... ... ... ... ... ... VIII. Revolution of the Variables ... ... ... ... IX. Detail of Days Unchangeable Winds, by Seasons Sf Years X. Number of Gales, High Winds, fyc. by Seasons and Years XI, System of the Sum of Rain, by Seasons XII. Monthly Rate of Rain LIST OF CONTENTS. Part II. GENERAL VIEW OF THE SYSTEM, AND EXPLANATION OF THE TABLES OF PART I. PACE. Method of Conducting Observations, and of Calculating the Sum of the Elements of the Weather. Sum of the Direction of the Winds, ... 1 Of the Rain 5 Of the Force of the Winds 5 Of the Frost ... ' 6 Lightning, Thunder, Aurora Boreales ... ... ib. Cloudy and Clear Days, and Days partly both ib. Hour of Mean Temperature ... ... ... ... ib. TABLE I. Of the Annual Rate of the Winds and Averages 7 II. East Wind Cycle of Averages ... ... 8 FIGURE 1. System of the Winds ... ... ... 10 2. System of the Lots of the Wind ... ... 13 TABLE III. Eighteen Year Period 15 Of the Courses or Series of the Weather ... ... 1 8 The Mild Course ... ... ... ... ... ib. The Cold Surumers .. ... ... ... ... ib. The Storm 19 The Wet Year ib. The Increase and Decrease of the Force of the Wind ... ib. The Lightning, Thunder, and furores Boreales ... ib. Of the Courses of the Weather generally 20 TABLE IV. Detail of Wind and Rain, by Seasons ... 21 . IV. & XIL Rules of the Winds, by Seasons ... 22 Conditions of Change, by Seasons ... ... ... 24 TABLE V Annual Detail and Sum of Rain 26 Of the Compression and Comminution of the Elements of the Weather ... 29 Winter Averages ... ' ... ... ib. Summer Averages ... ... .. ... ... 5J. LIST OF CONTENTS. TABLE VI Number of Days Rain, Snow, Frost, %c. 33 VII, Number of Cloudy and Clear Day*, %c. 34- VIII. Number of Days East, West, % Var. Wind 36 .. IX rOf the Revolution of the Variables ib. X Detail of Days Unchangeable Wind ... ... 38 XL ,Gales, High Winds, Barometer and Ther- mometer Averages ... ... ... ... ... 40 force of the \Vind 42 TABLE XII. System or Order of Succession of the Sum of Rain, by the Seasons ... ... ... ... 4-6 Reversion of the Weather ... ... ... 51 List of Averages ... ... ... 54 Explanation of the Tabular Views of Part III 5G Part III. HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. PACK, Tabular View of Winter 1803 57 Summer 1803 59 Winter 1804- 61 Summer 1804 63 Winter 1805 6* Summer 1805 66 Winter 1806 67 Summer 1806 ... ... ... ... 69 Winter 1807 '. . . 71 Summer 1807 74? Winter 1808 76 Summer 1808 77 Winter 1809 80 Summer 1809 ... S3 PAGE, Tabular View of Winter 1810 85 Summer 1810 86 Winter 1811 87 Summer 1811 89 Winter 1812 91 Summer 1812 93 Winter 1813 95 Summer 1813 .'.. 96 Winter 1814 98 Summer 1814> ,.. , 100 Winter 1815 102 Summer 18 1 5 104 Winter 1816 105 Summer 1816 108 Winter 1817 110 Summer 1817 113 Winter 1818 117 Summer 1818 119 Winter 1819 122 Summer 1819 125 Winter 182Q 1^0 Summer 1820 133 Winter 1821 135 May 1821 138 SUMMARY OF THE WEATHER. first Eighteen Year Period .., 139 First Mild Course, 1801 to 1 SOS ... ib. First Cold Period and Storm, 1806 to 1803 140 Second Mild Course, 1808 to 1810 ib. Second Cold Period and Storm, 1811 to 1812 HI Third Mild Course, 1813 to 1815, ib. Third Cold Period, 1816 to 1817 ib. Second Eighteen Year Period 143 First Mild Course 1818 to 1824 ib. ffJST Ol CONTENTS. Part IV. MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS ....... .. ... 145 Order of Succession of the Series of Lots of Excess and Deficiency .................. 147 Excess East .................. 147 Deficiency East ... ... ... ... ... ... 143 Excess West ... ... ... ... ...... ib. Deficiency West ... .* .......... 149 Order of Opposition of the Series of Lots of Excess and Deficiency, and of the Disposition of the Singles. Of the Excess East .............. 14& Of the Deficiency East ... ...... ; ..... 150 Of the Excess West ............... 351 Of the Deficiency West .......... ,, ... 152 Of Ihe Disposition of the Singles ... .;. ... 153 Distribution of the Annual Series of Lots upon the Seasons. Of the Excess East ... .......... 153 Summary ... ... ... ... ... 156 Of the Deficiency East ... ... ...... 157 Summary ... it , ... ... ... 159 Of the Excess West ... ... ... ... ib. Summary ... ... ... ... ... 162 Of the Deficiency West ... ... ... ib. Summary ... ... ... ... ... 163 General Summary ... ... ... ... 164 Extreme Excess and Deficiency ... .. ... 167 Of the Increase and Decrease of the Days Wind with the Increase and Decrease of the Lots and Series of Lots. V r i ( Decrease of East, first Winter of Lots of I Excess East ... ... ... 168 _ < Increase of East, last Winter of Lots of t Excess East ,.. ...... fj> 4 LIST OF CONTENTS. PAG! v _ C In crease of East, last Summer of Lots of I EicessEast 169 ? Increase of West, first Winter of Excess of { Lots of Excess West ib. f Increase of East and Decrease of West, first ii 5, < Summer of Excess East of Lots of Defi- ( ciency East ... ... ... ib. if Decrease of greatest Excess West of the Sum- i 6. < mers of Excess West, and Increase of De- ficiency East, same season ... ... ib. Effect of the Lots of Excess and Deficiency upon the Weather. Of the triple Excess East, years 4, 5, and 6, &c. ... 170} Of the Single Deficiency East, year 3, &c, 172 Of the Single Excess West, year 5, &c. 174 Of the Double Deficiency West, years 4 arid 5, &c. ... 175 APPENDIX. Table of the Rain from the Journal kept by Mr Porteous 177 Copy Letters from the Honourable the Board of Agriculture 180 PREFACE. 'Pus DISCOVERY of the CYCLE of the WEATHER has been accomplished by means of a circumstantial register of atmos- pheric phenomena, from which, by a simple and easy process, the sum of the different elements have been obtained for each year and season ; which sums being in quantities of more and, less in a certain determinate order of succession, form the Cycle of Revolution of the years and seasons. Before entering upon the keeping of a register, it was judg- ed proper to ascertain the probable period of commencement of the weather year : as the civil year did not appear to cor- respond in any degree with the course of the weather, the first day being far advanced in the winter season, and in a course or series of frost and snow : from which consideration especially, the beginning of the winter season, or first day of November, promised to be nearest the period sought for, the weather usually undergoing the greatest change about this day; and accordingly, the calculations from this point to the same, again, by giving the great and small quantities, or sums of each element, by the years, and by the seasons, in their ex- treme limits, and in a certain regular order of succession, esta- blished the assumed probable point, as correct. Moreover, from all other times of the year, excepting a few days before and after the point stated, the result is a confused mass of sums, without the least appearance of order in arrangement, and con- sequently explaining nothing, while the calculations from the 11 . PREFACE. first of November, explained every thing belonging to the sub- ject of the weather for all times, past as well as to come. It was the intention in the event this method did not suc- ceed, to calculate from every day in the civil year to the same again, so that the rules of the weather must have been detected, the weather year necessarily beginning somewhere. The commencement of the register took place on the first of November, 1802, and the mode of making observations dif- fer in no respect from that of ordinary journalists, excepting in the more circumstantial detail, the intensity and duration of every appearance in the atmosphere, being minutely described in the register a,t the time of occurrence. The sum of the principal phenomena of the first years was calculated at the conclusion of each season and year, but no result of any importance could be obtained from the observa- tions of a few years, which is now obvious from the nature of the subject; and it was therefore concluded, that a period of at least twenly years would require to be observed, before any explana- tion could be expected from this difficult subject; and in con- sequence the calculations were relinquished, until the memo- rable summer of 1816, at the end of which season the summing of the phenomena was renewed, not with the view of discover- ing the laws of the weather, but merely to ascertain, if possible, what sort of winter was likely to follow so extraordinary a sea- son. As soon as the particulars of the wind and rain, with a few of the other elements were put together, or in sums, in the order of succession, the most singular and unexpected discoveries were made; for at this time there were a sufficient number of years observed to furnish the averages, which at oncu pointed out the great and email quantities, or sums, and these PREFACE. iii bein<* in a certain order of succession, as stated, shewed the revolving nature of the weather. In this order of winter and summer^ each class of the sea* sons, by itself, and in the order of succession, as arranged in Table IV., the subject was investigated, until most of the laws which appeared to govern the elements by the seasons, were detected, and the whole prepared with a view to publica- tion ; but before this could be accomplished, it occurred, that the annual sum of each weather year should be calculated, by put- ting the sums of the winters and summers together, in case this disposition should contain some new rules; and on the averages of the East and West Winds being found, the order of succession of the great and small sums instantly gave the Cycle of 54 years, as explained in tin course of the work. As in every science an arrangement of the elements is ne* cessary to the right understanding of the subject, it will be perceived that the pitching upon the point which commences the weather year, is the first step to this purpose in the science of the weather, and that the next advance is the method of de- termining the sum of the different elements by the year and by the season ; it being apparent that the year is composed of two seasons, comprehended under the general title of Winter and Summer and the last step leading to an explanation of the problem of the weather, is the finding of the average rate of each element, by which means the more and less quantity is at once discerned, and consequently the order of succession of the sums of the different elements. This method, or ar- rangement is fully explained in the General View, which may be termed the introduction to the subject of the Weather : the averages of the winds being however considered difficult by many, the operation is shewn by the annexed table, which is. IV PREFACE. A. D. Days Days Ab. & Bel. exactly after the ordinary manner E. Wind. Average. of casting an average; the sum, or 1805 1*3 11 quantity of the winds is calculated 4 174 4- 35 by days, but the explanation of the 5 6 143 !_,_ f?i 4- 4 method of finding the number of 7 118 21 days wind is given at length in the R liO 29 General View. In the table sub- > 147 | M p j , i joined, the rate of the East wind is 10 156 -4- 17 11 134 5 .,'iven as a specimen ofthemodeof 12 131 _ 8 finding the average, and the aver- 15 127 12 age of the first fourteen years is J A 15,3 4- 16 * 15 134 5 taken as the regulating average in o o o 16 133 6 the mean time, for reasons explain- 17 112 27 ed at length in Part II. ; this- aver- IS 19 112 144 27 + 5 age is 139 days, but the average of 20 159 + 20 the whole number of years in the 21 4- table will be found to be about 137 is) 2477 (137 Average. c l a y s by the year. The years above average days of East wind by tin's table, are marked in column 3d with the sign plus + and the number of days above the average is attached ; as for instance, the sum of days xvind of the second' year, or 1804, is 174 which is plus the average by 35 days, as marked in column 3. The years under the average ore marked in the some manner in column 3d by the bigu of minus and the number of days below the are rage is attached, as for instance, on the first year, which is the 1803, there are 128 days of East wind, which is minus, or short of the average 1 1 days, as marked in column 3d : up- on the same principle, the average of the West wind is found, as explained in Part II. It is scarcely necessary to men- tion, that the number of days wind of the years in the table are added together, and the sum divided by the number of PREFACE. V the years observed. The order of the lots of years of over and under average is the key, or System of the winds, and the same order returns again (of necessity) after a term of years, that is, 5t years, as particularly explained in the work. The other elements of the weather are also in quantities of more and less continually, according to the state of the wind so that however complex the subject of the weather may appear, from the number of its elements, and the continual variation of the sums of ach, and of the times of such variation, the general structure has its origin in a few simple principles, parti- cularly the winds East and West, which again, it is highly probable, are derived from a still more simple and more remote principle the magnetism of the earth. There are three leading rules in the weather to be par- ticularly attended to, viz. the point of commencement of the weather year and of the seasons, the summer season beginning with the first day of May. the averages of the different ele- ments by years and by seasons, and the order of succession of the sums by the years -and by the seasons. Consequently in the study of this subject, the reader is requested ta attend mosl particularly to the circumstance, that it is the suvi of the elements, by the years and by the seasons, which forms the system, or cycle of the weather; the sum being itself the system, and at the same time the solution of this most inte- resting problem ; for the sum is made or found from all the particulars, and all the particulars make the sum. Therefore* an especial attention is to be given to the sum of each pheno- menon, (which cannot be too often repeated) by the years and by the seasons, and the order in which the great and small sums precede and follow each other; as the mode or order of succession of the great and small sums constitutes the whole VI PREFACE. mystery of the weather, and being in regular series in the time observed by the register, it gives by induction, which* cannot possibly err, the order of succession for all times, past as well as to come, upon the same principle that day and night, winter and summer, &c. alternate with each other con- tinually : for the weather must of necessity proceed upon its own principles, like every thing else. It may be mentioned that the arrangement of the elements of the weather, which has been but partially atterhpted by others hitherto, is one of the chief obstacles to the ready understanding cf the subject; for this being necessarily equally new with the discoveries made, the study of it requires more time and atten- tion than can be convenient for the generality : the keeping of a Journal of the weather, would, however, render the science in a short time familiar, and consequently add to the gratifi- cation of the curious ; there is indeed scarce any other which so nearly concerns all to know, every day in the weather being quite a new operation, and such as never appeared before, and never will appear again, The foreknowledge of the weather must be peculiarly inte- resting to the Agriculturist, as the management of all rural affairs will be disposed so as to suit the nature of the coming seasons but the importance of the discovery of the Cycle, must extend to almost all classes of society, as the more or Ic&s quantity of the elements will always attract a corresponding Attention. TABLES OF C ALCUL4TION THE WEATHER, /:' > I'urt ',".' TABLE I. ANNUAL RATE, OR SUM OF WIND. [See Page. 7. 1 1 2 3 4 5 A. D. 5 Days EAST W Days Deficiency & Excess EAST WIND. Deficiency & Excess WEST WIND. 1803 128 +232 D 11 days. E 1 9 days. 4 +174 182 E 35 D 31 5 + 160 200 E 21 D 13 6 + 143 + 221 E 4 E 8 7 118 + 239 D 21 E 26 8 110 + 254 D 29 E 41 9 + 147 + 218 E 8 E 5 10 + 156 193 E 17 D 20 11 134 + 221 D 5 E 8 12 131 + 23) D 8 E 18 13 127 +233 D 12 E 20 14 + J55 189 E 16 D 24 15 134 205 D 5 D 8 16 133 188 D 6 D 25 17 112 +233 D 27 E 20 18 112 +245 D 27 E 32 19 + 141 205 E 5 D 8 20 + 159 187 E 20 D 26 21 + + E E 22 __ D D 23 + + E E 24 + + E E EAST WIND CYCLE OF AVERAGES. [See Page 8. A. D. Years of Cycle. Averages A. D. Years Averages. A. D. Year Averages. 1803 3 MB 1822 22 MB 1840 40 ,TB 4 4 AI 23 23 AI 41 41 AH 5 5 A'S 24 24 AJ^ 2 42 42 fB 6 6 AJ 25 25 fB 43 43 IB 7 7 fB 26 26 \B 44 44 A i 8 8 L B 27 27 *M 45 45 AS 9 9 A] 2 > *"* 28 28 fB 46 46 | 10 10 A| 29 29 MB 47 47 l^ 11 It fB SO 30 $ 48 48 MB 12 12 M B 31 31 A l 49 49 IB 13 13 B 32 32 AS 50 50 A \2 14 14 A}} 33 33 AJ 51 51 AJ 15 15 'B 34 34 fB 52 52 fB 16 16 B 35 35 1 B 53 53 IB 17 17 B 36 36 I" 54 54 1 B 18 18 L B 37 37 I- 55 1 IB 19 19 4] 38 38 A) 56 2 Aj>i 20 20 A I 3 39 39 AJ 21 21 A J i TABLE III. EIGHTEEN YEAR PERIOD. [See Page 1 5. East Wind Averages, or Deficiency and Excess. 1764- D 1 1783 D 1 1801 D 1 1818 D 1 65 E 2 84 E 2 2 E 2 19 E 2 66 E 3 85 E 3 3 D 3 20 E 3 67 E 4- 86 D 4 4 E 4 21 E 4 68 D 5 87 E 5 5 E 5 22 D 5 69 E 6 88 D 6 6 E 6 23 E 6 TO E 1 89 D 7 7 D 7 24 E * 7 71 D 8 90 E 8 8 D 8 25 I) 8 72 D 9 91 E 9 9 E 9 26 D 9 73 E 10 92 E 10 10 E 10 27 E 10 74- D 11 93 D 11 11 D 11 28 D 11 75 D 12 94 D 12 12 D 12 29 D 12 76 D 13 95 D 13 13 D 13 30 D 13 77 E U 96 E 14 H E 14 31 E 14 78 E 15 97 E 15 15 D 15 32 E 15 79 E 16 98 D 16 16 D 16 33 E 16 80 D 17 99 D 17 17 D 17 34 D 17 81 D 18 1800 D 18 35 D 18 82 D 19 36 D 19 TABLE IV. DETAIL OF WIND AND RAIN BY THE WINTERS- [See Page 21, A.D. Cycle of Winter sum SI1IV.I JI.VU&, short rains Total Rain. Character of each Season. East Wd. West Wd East Wd West Wrt. 1805 D E e 82 d 97 14 If 42 45 Under Average Rain, Mild. 4 E D e 104 d 78 -'7 29 13 75 Very Wet, Snowy, Mild. 5 E D e 88 d 89 s 18 2.5 25' Very Dry, Mild, 6 E E d 60 e 121 13 31 34 51 Above Average Rain, Mild. 7 D E d 46 e 129 8 30 52 47 Av. Wet, Frosty, Wdy. } 8 D E d 55 e 125 i4 21 56 (J55 Wet, Frosty, Windy. 3 9 E E e 85 d 95 18 '25 4G 157 Wet, Mild, Windy. 10 E D e 71 d 99 9 25 3! 45 LTnd. Av. Rain, Mild, Wdy. 11 D E e 72 d 102 li 22 G4 49 Av. Wet, Frosty, Windy, ^ 12 D E d 45 e 153 ) 23 51 51 Ab. Av. Wet, Frosty, Wdy. ) 15 D E d 64 e 115 8 J8 46 44 Und. Av. Wet, Mild, Wdy. 14 E D c 76 d 86 8 25 G8 47 Av. Wet, Frosty, Windy. 15 D D d 55 d 103 4 36 76 52 Ab. Av, Wet, Mild, 16 D D d 48 e 109 1 32 59 40^ Dry, Frosty. } 17 D E d 25 e 147 3 2G 60 39 J Dry, Frosty. ) 18 D E d 47 e 126 9 25 61 48 Average Rain and Frost 19 E D d 50 e 126 10 30 57 52 Ab. Average, Wet, Mild, 20 E D e 78 d 94 13 65 25 Very Dry, Very Frosty. 21 E E e 80 d 98 7 36 49 49 Av. Rain, Days' Frost ab.av. 22 D D 23 E E TABLE IV; DETAIL OF WIND AND RAIN BY TH& SUMMERS- A.D. Cyc East Wd. !e of Winter sum [great rains 'i i 2 H 'I 'I Total "9 i 1 Rain. ijaj Character of each Season. [West | Wd East Wd. West Wd. 1803 D E d 46 e 135 . ;r 72 37 Dry, Mild. 4 E D d 70 d 104 7 2 J .53 42^ Average Rain, Mild. 5 E D e 72 e 111 11 18 39 40) tee Av. Rain, Mild, Calm. i E E e 83 d 100 4 li 4? 25 Very Dry, Temperate. ~) - D E e 72 e 110 7 30 o2 55 Very Wet, Cold, Windy. 3 8 D E d 54 e 130 3 fe4 50 357 Dry, Mild, AVihdy. 4 E E d 62 e 122 5 21 46 34) Dry, Mild, Windy. 10 E D e 85 c 94 13 18 40 43 Average Rain, Mild. 11 12 D D E E d 62 e 85 e 119 d 98 9 2 36 23 60 66 55 36 Very Wet, Cold, Windy. ^ Dry, Cold, Windy; ) 15 D E d 63 e 118 4 "7 50 46 Wet, Mild. 14 E D c 79 d 103 4 23 46 34 Dry, Mild. 15 D D e 79 d 102 3 40 54 r48 Wet, Mild, Calm. 16 17 D D D E e 85 e 87 d 79 d 86 4 4 38 -1 64 53 (50 42 Wet, Cold, Calm. S AT. Rain, Cold, Calm. ) 18 D E d 65 e 119 3 18 IP 35 -\ Dry, Mild. 19 E D e 93 d 79 4 IT J5 333 Dry, Mild, Calm. 20 E D e 81 d 93 8 25 i(5 45 Wet, Mild, Calm* 21 E E d g Av. Rain, Mildi 22 D D 23 E E NOTK. For the different Averages, see the explanation of the Tables PA*T II. TABLE V. ANNUAL DETAIL AND SUM OF RAIX. .svr r- Cyfrle of tlie East Wind. A. D. Great Rains. Modt Rains. Short Rains. Total I Rains. Character of the Years. Cycle of lie Wc-st Wind D 1803 19 3* . 114 82 Dry. i-: E 4 34- 53 96 115 Very Wet. D E 5 15 SO 64 63 Very Dry. D E 6 17 4-3 77 76 Very Dry. E D 7 21 60 lot 102 Wet. E D 8 17 51 106 90 Average. E E 9 23 46 92 91 Average. E E 10 22 43 91 88 Average. D D 11 20 58 10t 104 Wet. E D 12 16 46 117 87 Average. E D 13 12 65 96 90 Average. E E 14 12 48 114 81 Dry. D D 15 7 7G 130 100 ; Wet. D D 16 5 70 123 90. Average. D D 17 7 57 113 81 Dry. E D 18 12 43 131 83 Dry. E E 19 14 47 112 85 Dry. D E 20 8 38 119 71 Dry. D E 21 Average. E D 22 D E 23 E E 23 E D 2t E N DAYS RAIN, FROST, SNOW, &c. BY THE ?e Page 32. w B r- WINTER. SUMMER. ANNUAL. I -' w Ilain Days Frost Days' -Snow ~ Days' Hain Sumr. and Autir. Frost r a r - T r. =r ? : Days' Rain. s. A. D 1S03 74 52 21 93 4 VI. 2 1 " 167 17 E 4- 99 t9 38 84- 1 5 Vt - :; 2 + 183 D E 5 42 58 20 68 2 3 VL i ! ; 110 D E D 6 78 *90 31 26 29 2 li .39 *95 1 3 10 9 '1 193 i i 7 5 9 .3 137 + 185 7 a D fe *97 74 \ 47 s 77 M. !- + 174 E E 1 89 24 24 72 2 58 i 8 _ 1G1 ,: E 10 85 59 24 71 5 M. , 4 ; 1S6 D 1) D 11 12 *97 *88 3 31 31 ^ *IO-) 5 1 1 52 j 5 3 4 j -f- 202 + 179 S E U 13 82 t-9 25 \ 91 1 1 M. 15 8 + 173 E 14 101 77 35 li 73 1 \I. 'j i -f 174 ;) 1) 15 *116 41. 31 . *97 6 37 2 1 8 + 213 D D D 16 17 *92 89 99 1 75 j 39 30 *10fc 88 5 7 11 19 ;'} j 1 3 2 9 5 + 198 -f 177 D E D 18 95 65 25 E 90 )'i 2 1 u. + 185 E E 19 97 34 12 12 76 2 10 35 1 3 ;; + 173 D E 20 76 99 23 57 89 10 53 3 ;o - 165 D E 21 92 76 16 26 f E 1) 22 1) E 23 E E 21 * STABLE vii, DAYS CLOUDY AND CLEAR BY THE See Page ? East Wind. | Q WINTER. SUMMER. h ANNUAL. West Wind. | W A . D . ! o ^ Q o E r h I .-! o Q o c Oi r o 5" r 1 n 1" 3- g 5" Ou Q y m ;i 1 803 51 92 38 53 111 20 104 203 58 E 4 82 86 14 67 102 15 149 188 29 D E 5 60 73 48 63 91 30 123 164 78 D E 6 7* 86 21 50 115 19 124 201 40 E D 7 53 120 8 67 98 19 120 218 27 E D 8 72 98 12 20 146 18 92 244 30 E E 9 68 106 7 28 133 23 96 239 30 E E 10 38 125 18 32 134 18 70 259 36 D t> 11 35 135 11 45 130 9 80 265 20 E D 12 28 153 1 25 158 1 53 311 2 E D 13 46 138 7 28 153 3 74 291 10 E E 14 30 141 10 21 160 3 51 30 J 13 D D 15 43 133 5 22 159 3 65 292 8 D D 16 87 140 5 42 142 79 282 5 D D 17 21 156 4 24 155 5 45 311 9 E D 18 26 143 12 43 132 9 69 275 21 E E 19 36 127 18 41 127 16 77 254 34 D E 20 37 128 17 49 128 7 86 256 24 D E 21 68 95 18 E D 22 D E 23 E E 24 E TABLE VIII. N' DAYS ENTIRE EAST & WEST WIND, VARIABLE & CALM [See Page 56. ^3 _C \ w D WINTER. SUMMER. T< Wi liast )tal ^ .'=. 3 Is* Var. Cah Wes East Wes 1803 76 89 15 2 39 113 V9 3 82 97 46 155 E E 4 88 67 27 61 89 24 10 104 78 70 104 D E g 76 76 25 4 57 87 39 1 88 89 72 111 D E 6 51 102 28 66 79 38 1 60 121 83 100 E D 7 39 108 28 6 53 81 48 2 46 199 72 110 D ft 42 94 44 2 40 96 48 55 125 54 130 E E 9 71 79 30 i 51 100 33 85 96 62 122 E E 10 53 74 43 11 73 80 26 5 71 99 85 94 D D !1 54 75 45 7 46 88 47 3 72 102 62 119 E D 12 36 102 41 3 54 62 67 1 46 138 85 98 E D 13 59 104 16 2 53 97 31 3 64 115 63 118 E E 14 58 65 39 19 59 76 47 2 76 85 79 103 D D 15 46 86 26 23 60 76 45 3 55 103 79 102 D D 16 41 93 23 25 62 58 44 20 48 109 85 79 D 17 22 125 25 9 62 61 50 11 25 147 87 86 p D 1ft 37 99 37 8 47 85 52 47 126 65 119 i* E , 19 36 9o 55 (4) 55 58 71 (12) 51 126 93 79 ) E 2( 21 39 122 (10) 38 44 102 (10) 78 94 81 93 D E 21 31 38 112 (3) 80 98 t^ I) 22 D E 23 E E 24 1 NOTE. The calm days prior to 1819, are deducted from the days of the sea- on, but from this year inclusive, being calculated by the hours, the amount in days are exclusive, as explained in Tart II, &c. TABLE IX. OF THE REVOLUTION OF THE VARIABLES, [See D E E E D D E E D D D E D D D D E E E D E WINTER. SUMMER. ANNUAL. p- w fe"s "O w& *" T3 ^ M ; g 'o 2 o 1 "f- $ ** . 3 . '*~4 =3 ^ "^ ^ tr x i **" r J5? *> * K &? 5 iT 'S s" ~ & 01 )' > d \ ' "ra ' Q A. D. p c SP'S j 5 S e tD 55 6 S ^ S &JL ra ' ? P s ~~? 2 '* S = Ji 2 ^, eg : ^ .- "-- o $.3 . ?* 5 5 -A -5 ;;> sil j> pj |1 5| |" ^ 3 >. ^ L, -3 > 1303 15 155 24 29 137 44 44 292 68 4 27 145 37 24 135 39 51 280 76 5 25 151 26 39 J35 48 64 286 74 6 28 135 46 38 103 80 66 238 126 7 28 107 68 48 109 73 76 216 1-11 8 44 117 63 48 111 73 92 228 136 9 30 96 84 33 J14 70 ; 63 210 15-1 10 43 100 70 26 121 58 69 221 12rf 11 45 90 84 4 7 97 84 ' 92 187 168 12 41 94 85 67 77 106 ! 108 171 19i IS 16 131 48 31 101 80 ; 4 7 232 128 14 39 ^5 77 47 65 117 86 150 194 15 26 97 61 45 88 93 ! 71 185 154 16 23 87 70 44 75 89 67 1G2 159 17' 25 95 77 50 65 108 75 160 185 18 37 79 94 52 68 116 89 147 ^10 19 55 77 99 71 61 111 126 138 20 122 9 163 102 29 155 j 224 38 318 21 J12 25 156 22 23 NOTE From Winter 1819 inclusive, the three columns of each season, in- elude all the days of the season, the calms being calculated by the hours ; but pre- vious to 1819, the days calm being found in a different manner, arc exclusive of tke sums in the columns, as explained in Part II. & (For Table X. see following page. TABLE XI. NUMBER OF DAYS GALES, HIGH WINDS, BY SEASONS AND YEARS. Sfc. See Page 40. i East Win ; d. 1 WINTER. |j SUMMER. ANMMI,. "3 ^ A.D. M y pi 5 c r" ll 1^ tj J a O X -3 B Force of Wind a BO 1 O ,.; D 1803 *9 26 50 10 53 28 78 E E 4 23 47 46 19 34 37 83 D E 5 28 29 49 8 17 16 65 D E 6 45 18 40 37 55 U 44 27 50 64 E D 7 295 38 15 65 39 296 49 15 58 37 295^ 43| .76 E D 8 297 36 49 32 81 32 45 59 140 E E 9 292 42 64 25 1O2 293 53 42 27 70 292J 50 172 E E 10 292 36? 34 24 57 295 22 18 3V 293* 94 9 D 11 292 36 28 61 293 53 37 44 66 2921 127 E D 12 293 37 44 28 73 29i 52 36 31 62 292* 44| 135 B, D 13 294 49 34 82 14 44 32 114 E E 14 295 Jan. 25 44 31 73 35 43 63 136 D D 15 296 41 26 39 48 298 57 11 29 24 297 49 72 D D 16 297 35 40 21 45 298 51 20 38 29 2971 43 74 D D 17 299 39 32 53 45 299 49 13 26 19 299 44 64 E D 18 296 37 28 41 45 297 56 13 39 26 296$ 46* 71 E E 19 297 42 24 41 40 296 55 5 30 13 296$ 481 53 D E 20 296 33 19 29 31 294 53 3 28 U 295 441 42 D E 21 298 40 15 40 29 E D 22 D E 23 & TABLE X. DETAIL OF DAYS UNCHANGEABLE WIND Y THE WINTER. Set Page 58. A.D- W fc ;fc ^ Z, fc W W co ,W 1 W wa CO co to co to CO wsw. *tl i 2 1 NNW. Total Unch. 1803 6 i 3 1 8 1 40 8 21 12 19 4 31 155 4 11 8 7 13 32 12 17 I 3 6 3 29 3 145 9 10 19 36 2 2 29 12 32 151 6 5 7 7 19 6 2 2 4 s 30 11 12 11 14 2 135 7 4 4 7 3 2 7 2 2 22 20 12 11 7 4 107 8 8 1 7 2 2 1 15 o 1 5 17 19 12 8 13 4 117 9 12 5 5 11 9 6 2 1 2 IS 7 7 4 2 4 6 96 10 I 3 8 12 9 4 7 2 5 4 12 7 11 5 7 4 100 11 4 1 3 8 6 3 13 2 1 9 9 9 G 2 14 90 12 8 9 3 2 2 6 S IS 16 14 5 7 4 94 13 3 17 19 7 2! 1 4 7 13 43 9 S 3 131 14 8 S 8 2 8 2 e 4 7 12 3 10 4 6 2 85 15 6 5 4 13 4 7 1 3 21 IS 9 1 8 g 97 16 9 5 1 8 4 1 1 1 11 20 6 4 14 87 17 1 3 2 3 6 3 6 27 17 5 5 IS 4 9.3 IS 1 8 2 3 4 S 22 19 5 6 7 79 19 4 5 1 1 6 2 6 1 7 14 14 5 2 77 20 1 2 1 2 1 o 9 2i 8 o 3 7 4 1 25 22 23 TABLE X. DETAIL OF DAYS UNCHANGEABLE WIND 7 THE SUMMER. A.D- 55 w W 2, W 2 W ! V 4 o W C/2 V3 V3 ao CO 5 73 i I I i \\ i s 5 : * S 5 Total Unch. 1803 s 1 m' ' 5 8 4 1 7 i 7 4 9 5 137 4 4 1 5 3 I 39 6 o 3 19 6 35 1 135 5 6 2 26 4 8 2 6 1 1 2 29 13 6 29 135 6 I 13 10 12 o 8 3 5 3 5 2 S 4 7 5 103 7 2 1 6 12 22 2 1 1 3 14 8 12 4 17 2 109 8 2 11 9 6 4 4 2 10 19 32 3 1 7 1 111 9 4 T6 11 5 2 2 2 8 16 25 8 4 4 5 2 114 10 5 4 27 11 4 2 5 1 5 29 14 9 4 1 121 11 1 1 9 8 6 3 S 1 2 7 35 13 IS 1 4 97 12 1 2 15 2 2 2 1 3 S 9 23 7 1 5 1 77 13 2 ^ 4 14 10 7 1 1 G 3 22 e 5 9 5 4 101 14 1 2 8 5 1 4 9 3 2 10 9 1 6 7 65 15 3 5 3 9 16 4 2 20 15 g 1 5 2 88 16 1 1 S 6 t 5 9 1 18 12 1 10 S 75 17 1 4 3 5 17 1 i 16 2 2 2 4 65 18 1 17 6 1 2 1 13 6 8 10 3 68 19 2 2 12 6 1 2 2 j 6 14 4 1 61 2O 1 1 1 8 5 1 2 20 31 22 23 [For Table XII. see 2d following Page.] TABLE XIII. MONTHLY RATE OF RAIN. WINTER. A. D. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March. April 1803 12 6 7* 5 8 6J 4 16* 101 1^4 !9f 6^ 9 5 s| 3* 4^ H it 33 6 6 Jl Mi 7! 191 H 7 8 Ut 64 ft 7 ft 8 14$. 71 7i Ml 3 lot 9 9j 9 18 $i 3^ 9 10 6 Ifej H 6 H U 11 itf 8 8 t 6 t i iij 12 i4 6J 6 10 8^ 6i 13 !0| Si ti Ht 6t 5 14 4 5i 114 6| 9i 10i 15 9 1't H 11 11 5 J6 3 9 N 4J 8 6* 17 6 6 t 91 101 5t H 18 8| 6 9 5i 10J 8 19 4 8 lei 71 ' 4 5 N 20 *i 5* H 3 st N 21 7 10 10 S| Ht 71 22 23 2* D E E D D D E D D D D E E E D E E STABLE xni. MONTHLY RATE OF RAIN. S U M M E R. A. D. May. June. July. August. Sept. Oct. 1803 n 31 i 4 5i 71. = 9T 4 4 8| 5| 6 5| 12^ 5 H 3 3| 8 10| ~ * 6 3$ 9) *i Gi 4 3i 7 81 Si 6i Hi 1Q| Hi 8 *i 4 4| 3i 51 12 9 5 5i 7| n Si 1 10 M Si 4 1H H fe 11 Hi 7 7 11 3 4 12| 12 6| 7 *i 61 4 7i 13 14 5* 6 H ei 12| 14 N 0| *i 7^ H Si 15 H H 5i Ti 9 io| 16 8i 5* ill 8 4 9t 7i 17 7| 8| 7i I2 t 3 Si 18 6 *i 8^ 3A 7^ 5 19 6 6 5i 2i 5 7i 20 9i 7i 31 8i 7 10i 21 t 22 23 24 E D D E E E E D E E E D TABLE XII. SYSTEM OF THE RAIN BY SEASONS. [See Annual Cycles, j ' '" " r Summer Wind. Winter. Summer. A.D. East. West. EastJWest East. West Sum of Rain. Sum of Rain. I8O3

s 25 If + 46 10 21 E J EJ> e A d e == 49 ' f 22 of over average by themselves, repeatedly, and then the same is to be done of the lots of under average or Deficiency in their order of succession; for the weather must go on while it exists, and it is re- gulated by a constant succession of more and less in the rate of the winds, in the order which has been now happily detected, and which is more particularly explained in the immediate articles succeeding. The first year of the weather observed by the register, and which is necessarily the first in the table, is the I SOS; that is, from the first of November 1 802 to 31st October 1803, is termed the third year of the Cycle, for reasons stated in the explanation of Table III. In consequence of this arrangement, a new Cycle is observed to commence on the A. D. 1855, or the same order of over and under^ averages begin again on this year, as on the first year of the Table; but every year begins and ends this course of over and under ave- rages, so that any 54- years whatever, in succession, contains a com- plete course of the lots of over and under average of the winds, and consequently of the weather. In the succeeding part of the account of this interesting sub- ject, the term of Excess is substituted for the over or above average rate, and that of Deficiency, instead of the below or under average rate, especially of the winds; these terms being much more ap- propriate and convenient: besides that, there is no such thing as an average rate observed, the sum of all the phenomena being con- stantly over or Under the mean rate. In the Table of the East Wind Cycle, which forms the subject of the present article, the years of Excess are in lots which continu- ally alternate with lots of years of Deficiency; and the lots of both classes rise or fall in series, after the following manner, beginning with the first lot of a series of Excess, viz. First, there is a lot of Three years together of Excess East wind on each of the three years ; see the A. D. J8(H 5 6, of the East wind Cycle, Table II. Af- ter this is a lot of two years, each of Excess East win'd, see the years 1809 10^ same table. Lastly is a lot of one year of Excess East wind, see the single E of the year 1814, or the correspond- ing letter A of table II. In other words there is first a Triple Ex- cess, next a Double Excess, lastly a Single Excess; and after this a Triple Excess again, then a Double^ Single, &c. all of the East wind, and so on for ever ; this being the extent of the lots and series of lots of Excess East in all times past and to come. The order of succession of the series of lots of Deficiency East wind, is the following. First, there is a Single or one year at a time of Deficiency East wind, see the year Ib03, with which the list begins. Next is a lot of two years, or a Double Deficiency, see the years 1807 and 1808. Then follow a Triple Deficiency, see the 181112 13; and Lastly, there is a Quadruple Deficiency, or four years together of under average East wind, see the years 1815, 16 1718, after which comes a new series of Single, Double; Triple, and Quadruple Deficiency, and so on for ever : lots of Ex B 2 ID GENERAL VIEW. cess always alternating with lots of Deficiency, and consequently lots of Deficiency always alternating with lots of Excess. The year 1803 begins the list, because this has been the first year observed by the register; but it will appear obvious, upon reading over trie order of the lots, that upon whatever year obser- vations commenced the same circle of Excess and Deficiency would be the resuh, tor the year 1857 gives the same under rate of the EaM wind as the year 1803, which is a single Deficiency : and the year 1858, givt's the same rate as the 1804-, which is' tiie first of a lot of three years of Excess Eas"t wind, and so on continually. Again, the year 1856 gives the same rate or state of the wind as the Ib02, and the year 1855, the same with the 1801, and so on backward or forward, without limitation. This separate and brief account of the annual Excess and Defi- ciency of the East wind is given first, and by itself, for the following reasons; that the East is the ruling wind in the weather, as will appear in course, that the East and West wind are perfectly dif- ferent, having opposite effects, and lastly, that the two winds, may not be confounded together. FIGURE Is/. SYSTEM OF THE WINDS. Trtis figure, which see, is composed of the Cycles of both winds, and that of the West wind will now be more particularly ex- plained, the general structure of the Cycle of the East wind having been explained under the preceding article, and both shew the revol- ving nature of the system of Excess and Deficiency, each wind per- forming the course in the same time, and in the same yea;s, though the one is of opposite construction to the other. In this circular figure referred to, the letter E, for Excess, is substituted for the letter A, of the East wind Cycle in Table IT. and the letter D, for Deficiency, instead of the letter B of the same Table. The first circle from the centre of figure 1, contains the Anno Domini; the 1801, being termed the first year of one revo- lution of the system, for reasons to be stated. The second circle contains the E's and D's, or Excess and Deficiency of the East wind; and the outermost circle contains the E's and D's of the West wind. The figure is so formed, that the year of discovery of the system of the winds, the 1817, is at the top by way of distinc- tion, and it gives the advantage of a fixed position. The arrangement of the series of lots of Excess and Deficiency of the West wind, is in the following order. First, of the lots of Excess, which are in a decl.ning series, there are four years together, or in shorter terms, a quadruple Excess, see the years 1806 7 89, or 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th years of the Cycle. Next is a lot Part //.] sysifiM OF THE WINDS. H of three years, or a triple Excess ; then a double Excess ; and last- ly a single Excess ; after which is a quadruple, triple, double, and tingle again : and so on for ever. The order of the lots of Deficiency West, is thus ; First, there are three years, or a triple Deficiency, see the A. D. 1814- 15 16; Next, are two years, or a double Deficiency; Lastly, one year, or a single Deficiency ; after which conies a triple again, and so on for ever; a lot of Deficiency always alternating with a lof of Excess, and of course, a lot of Excess always alternating with a lot of Deficiency, in both winds. From this circular stiucture of the system, it is evident that the state of the winds, and of course of the weather, may be found to all times, past as well as to come ; the first, by counting for the re- quired year backward, and the last, by counting forward on the circle ; the Cycle of the Weather having necessarily the property of every other Cycle, which is consequently without a beginning, or an end, while every year begins and terminates a revolution of the Cycle. The Cycles, or System of the Winds, shew the proportion of the two winds, as to the sum or average rate, and is found in the following manner. Of the East there are 24 individual Excess, and of the West, there are 30 individual Excess in one revolution, consequently the West wind is more frequent in the proportion of these sums, or one fourth: Again the Deficiency East individual- ly, are ;}(), while the Deficiency West are only 24, hence there is one fourth more in favour of the West wind, both making a diffe- rence of oue half; so that the East wind is as 2 to 3 of the West wind; and the proportion of the East to the West from the years observed, is exceedingly near this rale, being 139 days East and '213 days West ; and for the very slight difference there are reasons quite satisfactory in explanation, of which, by and by; the pro- bable average rate by the system, is 140 days of East, and 210 days of West wind by the year. The line which divides the two winds, or more correctly the axis of the winds correspond with the pole of the magnet, so that it may be presumed as highly probable, that the wind is in fact a magnetic effect or principle. Should the axis of the winds therefore agree with the magnetic pole, it will be necessary when this corresponds with the meridian, to rate the North and South winds as variable; and when the pole veers to the East and West, in a contrary state to that observed at present, it will then be proper to rate the South by West as a West wind, and the North by East as an East wind, and all the intervening points as East and West respectively. This is not mentioned with a view to direct future observations, for long ere the period stated arrives, the proper mode will be fully under- stood ; but to shew the reasons for the present arrangement, which aturally arises from the circumstances under which the winds ope- rate at present. The variation of the axis of the winds may be termed one of the 12 GENERAL VIEW. [Par/ 77, Cycles of the Weather, or properly one of the periods, since the 5ith year system must also vary as to the disposition of the winds, and consequently the effect as to weather will vary according to the position of the axis. Admitting that the axis of the winds and the pole of the magnet are the same, of which there can be little doubt, the Periods and Cycles determined in the weather are the following. J. Revolution of the axis of the winds takes place in* 64>8 years. 1 2. Cycle or System of the winds and weather ditto 54 do. 3. Eighteen year period, or course of wind and wea- ther ditto, 18 do. 4. Annual period ot wind and weather ditto,...., J do. 5. Half yearly period of wind and weather, or the sea- sons ditto, , \ do. The North and South winds calculated in the same manner as the East and West, do not give any system by the averages, but each of these are more or less prevalent according to the state of tlie other winds which form the Cycle: the North and South winds are of rare occurrence, because, as it would seem, that these points are the poles of the winds; but in the East and West the winds are greatly more frequent, so that nature has made a most obvious dis- tinction in these last, and hence the perpetual system of Excess and Deficiency of these winds: the principal bulk of the East and West vinds is usually in the SW. and SE. which is probably owing to the latitude of the country in which the wind and weather has been so minutely observed, as in countries south of the line the principal winds are generally North East and North West. Fifteen days are about the average sum of the Calms by the weather year ; that is, all the Calms of the two seasons being put together, but it seldom happens that the sum of the Calms is about this rate, for most commonly it is much over or under what is here stated as the average, * In the summer of 1 820, it has been stated in the periodical publications, that the magnetic axis began to recede from the West about the month of March 1819, the variation West having been increasing during the previous 162 years from the true North and South ; and it is truly remarkable that this portion of the variation has been accomplished in exactly three revolutions of the Cycle of the "Weather, consequently in twelve revolutions of the Cycle, there is one of the mag- netic pole ; the effect of which must be different winds and weather, to a certain extent, in each revolution of the 54th year Cycle, for the space of 648 years, which is the number in a revolution of the magnetic axis : therefore the weather must be continually observed in all its particulars, in order to determine with accuracy that which is to follow, since there is no knowing wh'at other Cycles and 1'eriods may exist or govern in this department of nature. As the magnetic axis, or as it may be termed, the axis of the winds, is different in position in different places ; hence is easily understood, ihe cause of the variety of the weather upon the same season, in the different quarters of the globe, or even Different parts of the same country. Part //.] SYSTEM OF THE LOTS OF THE WINttS. IS FIGURE 2. SYSTEM OF THE LOTS OF THE WINDS. THE figure of the System of the lots of the Winds, shows more dis- tinctly the order of succession and of opposition pf the different lots, of Excess and Deficiency. In this figure, which see, the Jots.of Excess are represented by the letter E, and the lots of Deficiency by the letter D, with the addition of a figure below each letter, and in a separate cirde, which denote the strength of the lot: the lots of Excess having a large figure, and the lots of Deficiency a small figure for this purpose, each signifying the number of years of each lot. On a view of the engraved Figure II. the lots of Excess and De- ficiency of each wind, are seen in courses, or series, as generally explained in the preceding article ; and each of these courses are repeated a certain number of times in the Cycle of 54- years ; as thus, a course, or series of Excess East, is a Triple, Double, and Single Excess, which is repeated four times in a revolution of the Cycle : while a course of Deficiency East, which consists of a Single, Double, Triple, and Quadruple, is repeated only three times in a revolution ; yet the number of the lots of Excess and Deficiency of East wind in a Cycle, is equal, there being 12 of each. A similar arrangement, though different in order, is to be seen in the courses of the lots of Excess and Deficiency West wind : the course, or series of Excess, which consists of four lots, viz. the Quadruple, Triple, Double^ and Single, being but three times re- peated in a revolution of the Cycle, as of the series of Deficiency East wind ; on the other hand, the series of Deficiency West, which consists of the Triple, Double, and Single, is repeated four times in a revolution, being similar in this and every other respect as to ar- rangement to the order and repetition of the series of lots of Excess East : and in the same manner the number of the lots of Excess and Deficiency West wind, is equal, there being 12 lots of each. The same lots of either wind always oppose each other, notwith- standing that there is a continual change in the order of succes- sion of the lots in both winds, during a revolution of the system, while a lot of Excess always precedes, opposes, and follows a lot of Deficiency, and consequently, a lot of Deficiency always precedes, opposes, and follows a lot of Excess an arrangement which is truly wonderful and regular, and preserving an even balance in all times, and which is accomplished by the singular disposition of the series of lots, there being three in a declining, and one, the series of Deficiency East, in an increasing order. It is not less remarkable, that the small lots in opposing the large, (see Figure 1st) should oppose all the parts of the other in a revolution of the system j as thus, the Double Deficiency 1* GENERAL VTIV. [Pfflrf //. East always opposes the quadruple Excess West at one time it opposes the two frst years of the other; next, and in the order of succession, it opposes the two middle years of the quadruple : final- ly, and HI succession, it opposes the two last years of the quadruple Excess* On the other hand, the Double Excess West in opposing the quadruple Deficiency East, accomplishes th6 same thing, but in a different manner, thus, the quadruple Deficiency which succeeds the quadruple Excess first mentioned above, is opposed on the two Jirst years by the Double Excess West : the next quadruple Defi- ciency in succession, is opposed by the Double Excess West on the two last years of the lot, and the last quadruple Deficiency, in a re- volution is opposed by the Double Excess West on the two middle years of the lot. The manner in which the other lots oppose each other may be seen by viewing the Figures; a more particular ac- count of the disposition of the lots, is given under that part deno- minated, Machinery of the Winds ;' the purpose in the present section being merely to give a general view of the System of the Weather. General Effect of the Lots of ike Winds. THE effect of the lots of Excess East is an increase of the absorbing powers of the air, so that the years and seasons under these lots have, the appearance, and even inconvenience of drought, when the sum of rain is above average, of which the Summer 1820 is a remarkable instance : under these lots appear the greatest extremities of wet and dry winters, ana of dry summers : and under the lots of Defi- ciency East, weak absorbing powers of the air, stormy weather, and cold summers,* and the greatest extremes of wet summers : there is also under tha-first Deficiency of a lot, or immediately after, a wet year, or rain much above the average, so that there are 12 peculiarly wet years in a Cycle. Under the lots of Excess East the greatest falls of rain appear, or the great rains are frequent in proportion to the short rains ; and it is just the reverse under the years of Deficiency East., the short rains being very frequent, and the great rains being comparatively few. All the elements of the weather are distributed under these lots in the same manner condensed under the Excess East, and com- minuted under the Deficiency East : the days on which rain fulls being fewest under the lots of Excess East, and most numerous un- der the lots of Deficiency East. The number ef cloudy and clear * The most unfavourable seasons, in an agricultural view, arc under the lots of Deficiency East, and immediately before and after these seasons, are the most fa- Tourable, and particularly before and after seasons of extreme severity, as for ex-v ample, tlje summers of 1815 H 15, and again, 18181920. Part /I.] GENERAL EFfflCT O7 THE LOTS, &C. 15 days, ara greatest under the former, and days partly cloudy and partly clear, most numerous under the latter. Under the lots of Excess West the high winds are greatly in- creased in force and frequency, and under the lots of Deficiency a proportional decrease of the force and frequency of high winds. The combination of the quadruple and triple Excess West in the period observed, (these lots being separated by only a single Defi- ciency, see year 1810) occasioned an uncommonly long period of windy weather, which was in some degree renewed under the last year of the Double Excess West of 1817 and 1818; at all other times the force and frequency of high winds is low or ordinary, with little variation. The effect of the Excess West, at the commencement of the lots, is a great increase, or rather display of the electric matter; and to- wards the middle and conclusion of each lot, a great increase of t!ie force of the winds, as stated : and under the lots of Deficiency, a decrease of the electric matter, particularly of the lightening and the thunder, and a still more remarkable decrease in the force of the winds, especially under the larger lots of each class. TABLE III. Eighteen 'Year Period. THIS is ttie most distinct period in the weather, it is even more so than the Great Cycle of 5^ years, which includes three Eighteens : the dots on the circumference of the figure of the sys- tem shew the beginning and extent of each period, the commence- ment being always on the last year of the quadruple Deficiency of East Wind, the immediate year succeeding a course of severe sea- sons, of summer especially, which always appear in the middle of this large lot. The commencement of each period is distinguished by moderate and indolent weather, which continues from five to seven years, after which, the violent winds of the quadruple, triple, and double Excess West, with the cold summers of the double, triple, and quadruple Deficiency East, break the weather by degrees, until the extremities, which have been stated, as taking place under the quadruple Deficiency, concludes the course, when a new Eigh- teen year period begins on the last year of the lot. The fir.^1 period, by the Table, is thht beginning with the year J704-,* which is the first of a course of regular, or moderate and mild summers, and terminated with unfavourable and irregular sum- mers in 1782. The 1764- is the last of a quadruple Deficiency, and corresponds with the 1818, each bing the saoie year as to wind * The Eighteen Year Period may be calculated for any ti ice- preceding the i764- la eacU of them a complete revolution of the seasoas takes place. 16 GENERAL VIEW. \JPdtt //. and weather of two different revolutions of the system. The 1783 is tfie last year of the succeeding quadruple Deficiency, and is the first of another course of fine regular summers, and terminated with irregular and unfavourable summers in 1800. The 1783 is the same with the 1837, both having the same state of wind and weather, and being the same year of two different and successive turns of the Cycle, and of the same quadruple Deficiency. And the 1801, last year of the quadruple Deficiency, is the first of a third course or Eighteen year period, which commenced with fine miid and regular summers, and like the others, terminated with unfavourable in 1816 and 1817. These three courses complete a revolution of the Sys- tem of the Weather, the conclusion of each having unfavourable summers, but all differing in character, because the quadruple De- ficiency in each instance is differently opposed, preceded, and follow- 'ed by the other lots of the winds : there are however other summers in the progress of each course, under the double and triple Defi- ciency^ inferiorly remarkable lor severity, according to the state of the other lots in opposing, preceding, and folloxving these stated. The first period from 1764 to 1782, extends to 19 years; the second'from 17S3 to 1800, extends to 18 years : and the thiid, which completes a revolution, from 1801 to 1817, all inclusive, extends to 17 years; and so on continually: the mean or average of all these periods is just 18 years, and is hence termed the Eighteen year period : that now current, is the longest in the Cycle, it being 19 years, and terminates with the 1836, which is the same with the noted 1782. From the less extent of the last period, that is, from 1801 to 1817* which have all been observed by the Register, excepting the two first years, the weather of this portion of the Cycle is the most re- markable, the first half being exceedingly regular, and the last half as much the contrary; yet owing to this very arrangement, individual seasons, of summer especially, of a severer character, will appear in the other two succeeding periods of the Cycle. In each period there is exactly the same course of the series of lots of Deficiency East, and Excess West, but differently arranged with regard to the intervals between each lot, in each course ; the Excess East, and Deficiency West, having an independent course, which varies, in a considerable degree, the weather of each period, while the general outline is similar, there being three great changes of weather under each course of Deficiency East, which much af- fects the summers, together with a number of minor changes, which apply more to the winters. The period from 1801 to 1817, has been remarkable for mild winters, and alternate lots of mild and cold summers, as the lots of Excess and Deficiency East alternate, for the East is the ruling wind in the weather ; but that period now in progress will be chiefly distinguished by frosty snowy winters, and a more equable character of the summers. From this account of the Eighteen year period, it will partly ap- Part //.] EIGHTEEN YEAR PERIOD. '\*J pear why the 1801 is pitched upon for the commencement of the Cycle or System, since it not only begins one of those periods, but being the first year of a century of the A. D. it becomes well adapt- ed to form the first year of the first Cycle ; for every year of the first 54> of the century corresponds in the number with the years of one revolution, which is a circumstance of some importance in a science so new, and in which the continual recurrence of figures and calculations tend to occasion perplexity and mistake. 1 hough the first year of the first Cycle cannot be determined, there is no doubt respecting the time of the year in which the commencement took place, which must have been on or about the first day of November. By what has been stated of the lots of Excess East causing mild and regular weather upon the summers, though not in all instances dry, it becomes apparent why the last of a long lot of Deficiency East should always commence a course of fine summers,* because upon such years the East wind must be upon the increase, the next being Excess; so consequently, the increase or renewal of this wind must have a favourable tendency, as the decrease or Defi- ciency occasions the contrary ; and it is on this account that the years of Single Deficiency East, which is the first lot of Deficiency after the Quadruple, have all mild summers, whether wet or dry, this state of the wind being rather more of the nature of Excess, on account that this lot is limited in operation to a single season, of which more hereafter. On the same principle the last year of every other lot of Deficiency East observed by the Register, viz. the 1808 and 1813 had fine mild summers, each being after a lot of cold sum- mers and frosty winters ; and in the Quadruple Deficiency of 1815 16 17 18 ; the first as well as the last were fine mild summers, the decrease of the East wind in this long lot being but moderate on the first year. The summer 1798, which was also the first of a Quadruple Deficiency, was peculiarly favourable, and is still remem- bered as such. As however the last of each lot of Deficiency Ease is combined with the last of each lot of Excess West, or nearly so, the eminent mild character of the summers of these years is to be attributed equally to this state of both winds, in the course observed. * The first summers of every Eighteen Year Period, however, partake of the cold and irregularity of the concluding years of the former period iu the meaa temperature being lower than ordinary. 2 GEKEHAL VIEW. [Pflrf 1L Of the Courses, or Series of the Weather. As the changes in the weather are generally of some contiiiance, extending to seasons and years (and Cycles of years) as well as to days, it becomes necessary to distinguish these changes by some ap- propriate designation, expressive of the character of each; such as have been observed from the commencement of the Register, are as follow. THE MILD COURSE. The distinction of the mild course re- lates to the summer weather, as frosty, cold winters, more or less, occur in all states of the annual winds, though equally subject to rules with every other appearance. These mild courses are of va- rious extent, and depend upon the strength and order of combina- tion of the different lots of the winds; as for example, at the be- ginning of every eighteen year period, there is the longest mild course, since the first change which affects the summers is under the double Deficiency East ; a lot which is always a considerable way in advance in each period, or from five to seven years. When a triple Excess East (as in the current years) is preceded by a quadruple Deficiency, and followed necessarily by a single Defi- ciency, and this again by a double Excess East of course; the pe- riod of mild summers is of unusual duration, in consequence of which severe frosty winters fall under these years, because in this arrangement of the winds, the cold is confined to the winters: * but when the triple Excess East is differently disposed at the commence- ment of the eighteen year period, the mild course is shorter ; and the shortest mild courses are when a small lot of Excess East comes in between large lots of Deficiency East, for these last having each cold summers, the times or number of mild summers intervening are limited in proportion to the extent of the lot of Excess Ea>t. THE COLD SUMMERS This change so far as observed i/y the .Register is always under Deficiency East wind by the annual rate, which is to be always understood where no explanation is made as to the Excess or Deficiency being by the year, or by the season : the mean temperature is sometimes very low in summers under lots of Excess East, but owing to the regularity of the weather and power of the sun under this state of the winds, these seasons are uever as yet reckoned, nor even in common acceptation, are ever suspected of being cold. The lots of Excess West wind also occa- sion cold upon the summers, (excepting the single), and in degree according as these are combined with Deficiency East, which indeed is always the case in some mode or other and the Excess We>t even tempers the weather when in combination with Excess^East ; the lots, however, always terminate with mild weather, in the same * This is explained elsewhere upon other principles particularly th leaning of the East wind upon the summers of these years. Part //.] COURSES OR SERIES OF THE WEATHER, 19 manner as observed and stated of the Deficiency East. The single Deficiency East has been mentioned as having mild summers, that of 1803, at least, was mild, and the next single, which falls upon 1822, being somewhat under unfavourable circumstances, will de- termine whether this lot is always an exception. THE STOKM. There are several changes in the weather which might be included under this head, but it has been judged most pro- per to apply this term only to those changes, which, besides being' stormy, have cold summers and frosty winters ; so th.it thus restrict- ed, the Storm comes always in combination with the foregoing ser ries of weather, and consequently comes under the same, or nearly the sime state of the winds. The Cold and Storm, however, per- form a most singular revolution upon each other in every Eighteen year period : in the period observed by the Register, the cold in the first change came a season before the storm, and both under the quadruple Excess West, and double Deficiency East : on the se- cond change, the cold and storm came together, and terminated together ; both courses coming under the triple Deficiency East and triple Excess West : on the third change, which inpludes all changes of this description in the Eighteen year period, the storm came a year before the cold, which last combined with the other in its pro- gress, and both appeared under the quadruple Deficiency East, and double Excess West- each course of cold and storm continuing two years, excepting the first storm, which is shorter by a season, on account of the lesser limits of the Double Deficiency East. In the other Eighteen year periods, these rules of the cold and storm may he reversed, or at least in a different order, since the lots of the winds are in a different arrangement. The principal character of the storm, is great commotion and comminution of all the elements of the weather ; and that the winter weather, or in other words, the storm extends through the summers. THE WET YEAR. There is one such at the commencement of each storm, and one in addition, under or immediately after the single Deficiency East, and single Excess West. On these years is a singular rotation of the Excess and Deficiency East wind by the seasons, of which a brief account is given in the explanation of table 5, and a more detailed statement in the History of the, Weather. THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF THE FORCE OF THE WIND. , This interesting course of weather has been generally explained and accounted for when stating the effects of the lots of the winds, and more in detail in the succeeding pages. THE LIGHTENING, THUNDER, AND AURORA BOREALES. The display of all electric phenomena have their cause -of more or Jess frequency in the state of the winds, as will be found explained at length. There are many series of appearances in the weather, which are noticed in order in the History, &c. the following statement corn* prehends a general view of the series or courses of the weather. GENERAL VIEW. \_Part II. Of the Courses of Weather, generally. ALL the phenomena of the weather are continually in series of wore or less; for instance, there are Great Rains, Moderate Rains, and Short Rains, with more or less intervals of fair between each, which are also in series: there are likewise Gales, High Winds, and Windy Days Hard, Moderate, and Slight Frosts ; even the clouds follow the general law of more or less, and the very calms being di- visible in the same manner, in short all that can be recognised in the atmosphere, which are consequences arising from the arrange- ment of the annual lots of the wind, are in more or less quantity ; for these winds being combined in all possible ways, by the years, by the seasons, and by the day, occasion the subordinate series, or pheno- mena of the weather to appear in every possible form and circum- stance, within certain limits, according as the annual lots are limit- ed in power and extent, which is shewn by the prevalence of Great Rains under certain lots, and of the Short Rains under certain other lots; also, the prevalence of heat at one time and cold at another, or different proportions of the different series of every denomination, as the different lots of the annual, half-yearly, and daily winds, are disposed in succession, and against each other. Moreover, all the series are observed to begin and end at different times, taking the annual winds as the prime elements, which begin and terminate as lots and series of lots upon different years each of these, with all the consequent subordinate series, revolving from the winter to the sum- mer, in continual rotation, so that the whole machinery may be com- pared to a twisted cord, in which every 6bre begins and ends at differ- ent points from all the rest; in consequence of which structure it cannot be broken by any power inferior to itself. In other words, there is a continual circulation of all the principles of the weather, in less or more, from one series of years to other series of years, from winter to summer, from day to day, even to the most minute porion of time. The rules, however, which determine the appearance of the se- ries of weather for shorter periods than by the seasons, as yet eludes, every calculation, though the daily weather may be said to be known with that of the season : in like manner series of weather exist of a far more extensive nature than the system discovered ; and there must be one which embraces all time, that is, the time of continu- ance of the fabric of these some may be detected, while others will remain unknown, but the result necessarily arising from these con- eidrations, is, that no two seasons, in the age of the world, can be 1 ever exactly alike in all circumstances, however long the machi- nery may operate. fart //.] WIND AND KAIN BY SEASONS. TABLE IV- Detail of Wind and Rain by Seasons. The Averages of this Table are as follow: Winter Wind East, 68 Wind West, 105 Sum Rain, 48. Summer W T ind East, 71. Wind West, 108. Sum Rain, 41. THESE are the Averages of the first 14 years; the title at top of each column sufficiently point out the contents; the circumflexes on the left hand of the sum of the rain, indicate that these are a pair of wet seasons; and the circumflexes on the right of the sun? of rain, shew the pairs of average and of dry seasons, by winter and by summer; the same mark in the columns containing the charac- ter of each season, denote the pairs of frosty winters, and the pairs of cold summers ; all the other seasons, but especially the summers, are alternately wet and dry, but differing in the degree. In the columns of the system of the wind by the seasons, the small letters e and d signify Excess and Deficiency, as in the columns containing the annual system, the letters of which are capitals as usual. In the general calculation, the averages of the first 1-t years are preferred, because these come nearest as yet to the real averages of the system of 54? years, or the averages of all times : the manner of determing the proportion of the averages of the annual winds has been explained at page 11. The reason why the 'averages of the annual winds is at present too low, that is, in particular, if the ave- rage of the eighteen years observed be taken, arises from the cir- cumstance of the great lots of both winds coming together in the period, or but separated by the least possible lots of the opposite description see the triple and quadruple Deficiency East, which are separated by only a single Excess on 1814 see also the qua- druple and triple Excess West, which are separated by only a single Deficiency in 1810. This sort of combination reduces tlie rate of East wind below ordinary level, and increases the quantity of W T est wind in the same manner : yet the sum of each lot is not in the one case so low, nor in the other so high as it would have been were the intervals between each lot greater, for the Double Excess West of 1817 IS, which is as far from any other lots of Excess as pos- sible, occasioned more West wind than the triple Excess, since it extended to four winters of Excess in succession, (that is, includ- ing the winter preceding and succeeding the lot) and to one sum* mer of Excess, whereas the triple is limited to two winters and two summers of Excess, in consequence of being in the near neigh- bourhood of the quadruple Excess, and all these seasons of Excess are slender, one winter excepted. 21 GENERAL VIEW. IPart JJ % The other averages of Table 4 are retained on the same account, there being no doubt of the rate of rain following the rate of the winds ; these rates in general terms, as to rain, are, extreme dry, very dry, moderately dry, low average, mean average, high average, moderately wet, very wet, extreme wet : and the same of the other elements. The range of the rate of wind and rain must be great, but the exact limits is not to be determined from the observations of a tew years : the least quantity of the East wind on the seasons, is in the winter of 1817, last year of the eighteen year period, in which there were only '25 days; and the greatest quantity of the vVest wind is upon the same season, the number of days being 147 : the greatest quantity of rain is upon winter 1804, the sum being 73; on this same season is the greatest sum of East wind observed, the number of days being 104 ; also, on this season is the least quantity or sum of West wind, the number of days being 78. The least sum of rain is on the winter of 1805, which is only 23, but no extremity of the winds appear on this season. The average sum of rain by the year is 89, and this must therefore be the limits which cannot be sur- passed upon any of the seasons and in the other extreme, the quan- tity may be so low as ; but it is to be observed that the average rate rises and falls, even in short periods, and therefore the extent of the range can only be known in a course of ages it is possible also, that the same remark may be applied to the rate of average of the winds, &c. This Table may be said to be of a leading character, whose ex- planation properly is to be found in the statement given of the other Tables, but more particularly under the article on the com- pression and comminution of the elements. TABLE IV. & XII. Rules of the Winds by the Seasons. THE Excess and Deficiency of each wind by the seasons are not in such regular series, as to be made out by induction for a revolu- tion of the system, this property appearing more conspicuous in the sum of rain of the seasons, of which in course. There are however a set of rules in the distribution of the annual winds upon the sea- sons, equally regular with the lots of the system, but upon some- what different principles: and what is a little singular, every Eighteen year period of. one revolution appears to have rules peculiar to each, which is owing to the varying position of the annual lots in the order of succession, and of opposition in each period. These rules in combination with the order of the annual lots, render the system considerably complex, in as much that there are averages, or Excess and Deficiency of each wind, by the seasons, aa Part 77. ] RULES OF THE WINDS, &c. 23 well as by the years ; and each class of the seasons, are, in a great measure, independent of one another, forming, as it were, a suc- cession of shorter years, that is, the winters by themselves, and the summers by themselves, with rules peculiar to each class; while every winter and summer forms the annual period in other words, a winter has more of a reference to the preceding and succeeding winter, than to the summer immediately following, and the same remark applies to the summers, so that each class is in a system by itself, while 54- winters and summers make the annual system at the same time that every period of the system has its own peculiar rules whatever be the extent, so that there is a variation from first to last, while the general outline of the system is still preserved. The rules of the first eighteen year period observed, which have been all registered, excepting the two first years, are Under every lot of Exces?, by the annual rate, or system, there is one season of Deficiency of the ruling wind in each year, except* ing one year of the lot, in which there is an Excess upon both sea- sons ; forming a pair of Excess iivsuccession. Under every lot of Deficiency by the annual rate, there is one season of Excess in each year of the ruling wind, excepting one year of the lot, in which both seasons are Deficiency; forming a pair of Deficiency in succession. Under every lot of Excess by the annual rate, the Excess upon both seasons is in the last year, excepting the triple Excess East, and the quadruple Excess West, these having the Excess upon both seasons of the middle years, the quadruple having Excess upon both seasons of the two middle years. Under the lots of Deficiency the rules are equally regular, with this difference, that the lots of Deficiency East wind have the De- ficiency upon both seasons on the last year of the lot and that the lots of Deficiency West have the Deficiency upon both seasons on the fast year of the lot. The pairs of Excess and Deficiency of the winds by the seasons, are the same in number with the pairs of dry average and wet seasons, of which more particularly when explaining Table XII. in order. All the lots of Excess and Deficiency by the annual rate, com- mence in Excess and Deficiency upon the winter, and terminate in Excess and Deficiency upon the summer; excepting when the two largest lots of Excess West are separated by only one Deficiency : see the single Deficiency West of 1810, which divides the quadru- ple and triple Excess West : it appearing necessary to separate the operation of these large lots as much as possible, in order to re- duce the power or effect of this unusual, or near combination of these long lots : but though the triple Excess, for the reason stated, began upon the summer of the first year, it also, like the quadru- ple and double Excess, terminated with Excess upon the last sum- mer of the lot more particulars on this head are given under the article of the " Force of the Wind." GENERAL VIEW. [Pflrf //. Conditions of Change by tlie Seasons. THE conditions, or state of the wind (for this is ever}' thing in the \veather) which indicate, or lead to the roost important changes by the years, have been briefly noticed ; such as the storms which fall 'under the lots of Deficiency East, in which the summers are ge- nerally wet and cold, c. and the winters frosty but it is to be observed here, that the frost which comes under this state of the wind, differ considerably in the mdile or circumstance of distribu- tion, from the appearance of the same phenomenon under the Ex- cess East, by the years ; for in the first state the weather is much broken, or comminuted, frost and fresh continually alternating, and in short, all the elements are in great activity, or commotion, and there appears little or no rest: but under the lots of Excess East, the weather is much more regular and uniform, the frost in particu- lar, being for the most part long continued, even when at an under average rate, and but comparatively little commotion in the atmos- phere, (excppting when the lots, or part of the lots of Excess East is opposed to the last years of the larger lots of Excess West), and that little at considerable intervals, and all the summers more or Jess regular. All the changes of the weather are accomplished by the changes of the winds from Excess to Deficiency, and from Deficiency to Excess, in each, both by the years and by the seasons : so that by calcu'ating the number of the lots of each kind, the number of changes in a Cycle of 54> years are very many, or almost continual, from which comes the proverbial character of the weather, which to those who have no knowledge of the system, appears to form an in- superable objection to the discovery of the rules but the lovers of the science will find that the weather is as strictly bound by laws, as the most familiar department of nature. The conditions of change, by the seasons, are the following: After every summer with Excess East wind, in the first instance, the succeeding summer is wet, and this order continues until the third instance in succession of Excess East, provided the first sum- mer of Excess is under the last of a lot of annual Excess East. There is however an Excess East occasionally, which is merely nominal, as in the summers of 180,5 7, which is but just percep- tible, and accordingly do not affect the weather, particularly in these instances, because there is an Excess West at the same time, that is, on the same seasons, which corrects the other Excess. A great Excess East as that of 1806 10 14, are complete condi- tions of change, not only on this account, but that each Excess is on the last year of a lot of Excess, so that the storm, or change, follows with every advantage under the Deficiency East by the Part //.] CONDITIONS OF CHANGE BY SEASONS. 25 year: the Excess of ISH being rather moderate, the change con- sequent is modified by this circumstance ; of which more in detail in the History of the Weather. And the first Excess of 181'2 and 1819, though very high, have but a still more partial effect, for that of 1M2 is under the middle year of a lot of Deficiency by the Annual Kate, in which the weather current is broken by the great Excess of summer 1810. And the Excess of the summer of 1819, is on the first year of a triple Excess East, so that no change could happen from this state, excepting the mere augmentation of the quantity of rain on the summer following ; the weather otherwise being but little affected agreeable to the rules, therefore After every first Excess East by the summers, provided it be an actual or great Excess, (a small Excess being virtually a Defi- ciency), and immediately followed by Annual Deficiency of East, there succeeds a Storm, which commences directly on the winter after the Excess East, in which the elements appear in an unusual commotion and comminution for two years, provided the last An- nual Deficiency of the lot is beyond the two years, otherwise the Storrr. is curtailed ; for the last Annual Deficiency makes a fine sum- mer, especially if opposed-by the last Annual Excess West of a lot ; this curtailment can only happen under the double Deficiency East, unless the sign of change should occur in the course of the lots of Deficiency, instead of the last year of the lots of Excess East : The storm continues at each repetition until the first summer of Defi- ciency East, and Excess West, which season is itself fine, mild, and regular weather ; and the regular state continues until after the succeeding summer of Excess East, when there follows another fctorm as before, provided as mentioned already, that a lot of Defi- ciency East, by the Annual Kate, comes immediately after the summer of Excess East ; otherwise the nature of the change is al- most wholly different a wet summer, that is, rain above the aver- age, is the result indeed, but the weather is regular with an absence of the cold in summer, however intense the frost of winter. Accordingly after every summer of Excess East, if the follow- ing year or years are Excess East, the succeeding winter is frosty, but regular in character, and the succeeding summer is wet, or the rain is above average, but not particularly cold, for it seldom hap- pens that a wet summer is peculiarly mild, especially if considerably wet : the comminution observed under the years of Deficiency East going away, or gradually changing to the compressed state after the appearance of Excess East by the Annual Rate. Alter every summer of Excess West wind, the succeeding sum- mer is dry, until the third instance in succession, which is followed by an average ; this at least is the rule in the Eighteen year period observed ; in fact, the rules here given, are only applicable to this period, though the greater number will probably hold at all times. After every winter of Excess West, if the annual state is Ex- cess West at the same time, the summer succeeding is cold, or D 26 GENERAL VIEW. [Part //, but temperatCj if the other annual wind, the East, is in Excess also ; and the cold continues both winter and summer, until the last win- ter and summer of Excess West; both which last seasons, and par- ticularly the summers are always mild and regular weather : and the cold does not appear again, at least upon the summers in any re- markable degree, until after a summer of Excess East, which is fol- lowed by annual Deficiency of East, on which last comes another cold course, as before explained. After every first year of Excess West upon both seasons, all the succeeding summers are dry, until after the first summer of Excess East, whatever be the number of years and seasons intervening, average seasons, in this rule, being considered as dry ; but from the limitation of the annual lots of the winds, it is apparent that the dry Seasons can never exceed a certain number at a time. After every summer of Excess West, the winter following is wet, until the third instance in succession of Excess West, when the winter after is about average. After the wind comes the rain, or drought, according to the parti- cular wind which prevails, but as there is always some of each wind on every season, so there is always some dry, and some wet weather, though one greatly preponderates over the other at times and the rate of the rain generally correspondswith the rate of the winds, especially the first wind of a lot by the years and by the seasons, of which the instances will be found in the History of the Weather. The rate of the frost is also in proportion to the rate of the wind, at least very generally, for all the summers with great Excess East wind, are followed by frosty winters, in the first and second in- stances, but continued repetitions of Excess East by the summers t are at last followed by the contrary, and all lots of Excess, or Dei ficiency, by the years, and by the seasons, when of any consider- able extent, increase or decline in effect, with the strength or extent of the lot, of which the instances will be found under |Yi otherwise termed " Machinery of the Winds." TABLE \ r , Annual Detail and Sum of Rain. THE explanation of any of the Tables, in the full extent of this term, .is only to be found from the perusal of the whole work on the System of the \Veather ; for the subject should properly be includ- ed in a single table, or scale of the seasons, as attempted in the first account published in 1818, a plan which will most probably be deemed preferable when the science is more generally known. From each of the tables, however, the most prominent peculiarities are in general selected for an explanation. Part //.] ANNUAL DETAIL AKD SUM OF RAIN. 2? Of the present table the account to be given in this article, com* prehends principally, the rotation of the East wind, which has been stated as observed upon the wet years see the rate of the Eait wind by seasons in Tables 4- and 12, and is as follow. The first wet year is the 1801 see the great sum of rain of this year: in which there is an Excess East wind upon the winter, and Deficiency of the same wind upon the summer. The second wet year is the 1807 when the East wind is Defi- ciency upon the winter, and Excess upon the summer* The third wet year is the 1811, when the East wind Is Excess upon the winter, and Deficiency upon the summer. The fourth wet year is the 1815, when the East wind is Defi- ciency upon the winter, and Excess upon the summer* These are all the wet years of the Eighteen year period, and are the same in number in every such period, though differently arranged as to intervals, &c* in each period. After a considerable interval, the fifth wet year falls under the 1822, (this year having the first lot of Deficiency East after the 1815) in a new course of the winds, and in the second Eighteen year pe* riod ; but the East wind on that year will be the same as on the last wet year, that is Deficiency upon the winter, and Excess upon the summer, which is the reverse of the state under the first wet year of the first Eighteen year period. This change in the rotation, is probably itself a rotation which revolves upon each course of Defi- ciency East alternately. The state of the wind, on the 1822, i made out by a process of induction, and shewn in another part of the work. The Excess Rain of 1804?, or first wet year, fell wholly upon the winter, the summer after having an average; which disposition of the fall appears to be owing to the previous lot of Excess West, (the single) being upon the season preceding, summer 1803. The Excess Rain of 1807, or second wet year, fell wholly upon the summer, the winter preceding being average: hence, the gene- ral sum is less than the former wet year, the average, or sum of rain by the summers, being considerably less than that of the winters. The Excess Rain of 1811, or third wet year, is also wholly upon the summer, as in the last instance, and for the same reason is in- ferior to the sum of the first wet year. The Excess Rain of 1815, or fourth wet year, is nearly equal upon the winter and the summer, considering the average rate of each season; but the general sum is least of all the years of Excess Rain, which appears to be owing to the previous Deficiency West, and the weakness of the previous lot of Excess East, it being only a single, and that this single is followed by an unusual long lot of Deficiency East. The disposition of the fifth wet year of 1822 is not at present so evident as the distribution of the windf of that year, but the fourth wet year having been nearly equal upon both seasons, it indicates D 2 23 GENERAL VIEW. [Part II. the return of the rains upon the winters, as upon the first wet year, though it cannot be near the same amount, from the state of the annual winds the single Excess West of J821 being accompanied by Excess East on the same year, and being followed by Deficiency East on 1322. A wet year, it seems, always follows, or comes under every lot; of Deficiency East, by the annual rate that the Excess rain of 1804? did not fall like the others under the previous single Deficiency East appears to be in consequence of the Excess West, (a necessary contingent in the production of rain) which is also a single, being upon the same season, summer Ih03; whereas, in the other in- stances, the Excess West appeared previous, or immediately before the lot of Deficiency East : for there is every reason to suppose, that when the Excess West is considerably before the Deficiency East, the Excess rain is in proportion reduced : see the fourth wet year of 1815, in which is the least Excess rain, owing to the pre- ceding Excess West being so far back as the 1813. As this last had the least quantity of rain from the causes stated, so the first wet year had the greatest quantity from the close con- tact of the Deficiency East and Excess West, both being upon the same season, and preceded by a number of dry years : moreover, the Deficiency East and Excess West in question, were followed by the first of a large lot of Excess East, (triple Excess of 1801, 5, and 6) which appears under all circumstances to have above average rain on the first winter of the lot, excepting probably when preceded by several years of Excess west, as is the position of the triple Excess East of 1 844-45-i6, (see the figure of the System), when a contrary effect is the consequence : the other wet years ob- served having a sum of rain in proportion to the perfection of the conditions stated as the cause, and also taking into consideration the strength of the lots of Excess and Deficiency East, and of Ex- cess West, since it appears that the stronger the lots the less rain upon any particular season, or year, which is a providential result, as a different disposition would leave too little rain for the other years of these lots. It is a curious fact, in the period observed, that every first win- ter of Deficiency East is always wet, while the first summer of Ex- cess East is always dry, whatever be the state of the annual winds. A further explanation of the table will be found in the succeeding article. Part //.] OF COMPRESSION AND COMMINUTION, &C. Of the Compression and Comminution of the Elements of the Weather. THE most characteristic appearance of the weather arises from the more or less compression, or comminution of its elements, par- ticularly of the Rain : these distinctions are most evident by tables 4- and 5. The mode of explanation is by taking the averages of different times, such as the first sixteen years observed by the Re- gister, which comprehends nearly the whole of the first Eighteen year period, and in which the distinctions stated are most remark- able ; in order to shew these principles in the strongest light, these 3 ears are divided into two divisions of 8 years each, the first being from 1803 to 1810 inclusive, and the last from 1811 to 1818 inclu- sive. In illustrating the more or less comminution, the sum or* number of the short rains is selected in giving the comparative aver- ages, the sum of each wind, &c. for the same period being exhi- bited of course. WINTER AVERAGES. Average sum of Rain first 8 years, 49") Average sum of Rain last 8 years, 4.5 \ Average sum or number of the Short Rains first 8 years, 43 Average sum or number of the Short Rains last 8 years, 60 By this statement is seen the comparative superior compression ef the rain first 8 years, the short rains being Jess frequent on the first period than on the last, and the great rains the contrary, as may be observed by a glance at the Tables ; and accordingly, the sum of rain is greater on the first than on the last : but the Regis- ter shews that the comminution of the last 8 years much exceeded the proportion given by the averages, for the short rains of the first period consisted of single slight falls in general upon each day, whereas on the last 8 years the short rains consisted of a number of slight falls upon each day, also very generally ; the one state changing to the other gradually, and the same of the moderate and great rains, which the tables shew, are much less frequent on the last than ,on the first division, as may be averaged. The cause of these different Results may be readily seen by looking over the state of the Annual winds of the sixteen years in question : in the first 8 years are to be seen five years of Excess East, and in the last only one year of Excess ; or what is more to the purpose, in the first division are only three years of Deficiency East, and in the last no less than seven years of Deficiency: making an annual average, in the first 8 years, of 112 days of -East wiail, and only 129 on the 30 GENERA t VIEW. [Part fL last 8 years. Hence, the prevalence of the East, and the compara- tive absence of the West wind, compresses the elements of the weather together, because both winds are in this division more on an equa- lity ; this is the compressed state, while under the Deficiency East and Excess West, the elements are loosened or dissipated, which is the state of comminution. It remains to be observed, however, that the Excess East occasions remarkable compressed weather, only when the Excess is principally upon the winters, and when some years advanced in the Eighteen year period, as in the instance in point: for the weather is always much broken by the quadruple De- ficiency East, and requires some years more in settling into the re* gular state. WINTER AVERAGES CONflNUED. Average number of days East wind first 8 years, 741 Average number of days East wind last 8 years, 64 j Thus, the cause of compression and comminution appears more particularly ; and to this is to be added the very regular wind and weather ot the first 8 years, of which subsequently more in detail. When the East wind is frequent, especially upon the winters, the rains are rarer, but heavier and of longer continuance, and the con- trary when the East wind is at a low rate, particulary in the win- ters. Hence, it is known that a period of equal compression and comminution cannot happen until the same years come round again, since no equal portion of the Cycle of the winds have so many years of Excess, and so many years of Deficiency clubbed together in the same order, at least between the single Deficiency, and the last of the quadruple Deficiency East; for the compressed and commi- nuted weather are always in extremes in the course of these lots, but not equally in extremes in every Eighteen year period of the Cycle. From these modes of the distribution of the rains, there are seasons in mild periods and under Excess East, which have a con- siderable quantity abo"e the average, yet have all the appearance and even inconvenience of drought; for under this state of the wind the absorbing power of the air is great the recent summer of 1820 is a remarkable instance in point: on the contrary, under Deficiency East, a quantity of rain considerably below the average, by being much comminuted, appears to constitute a wet season; but in these cases the absorbing power of the air is feeble : examples of both these cases- have been repeatedly observed in the sixteen years. WINTER AVERAGES CONTINUED. Average number of days West wind first 8 years, 104 1 Average number of days West wind last 8 years, 115j The increase of the West wind assists the comminution, but it ia the state of the East wind which appears to have the most powerful effect in causing these varied phenomena, especially the state in winter. Part //.] OF COMPRESSION AND COMMINUTION, Ac, 31 SUMMER AVERAGES. Average sum of Rain first 8 years 397 Average sum of Rain last 8 years, 43 J Average number of Short Rains first 8 years, 49 ) Average number of Short Rains last 8 years, 57 j The comminution of the rains of summer is something greater than that of the winter, considering that the quantity on the former is less by about one-sixth on the average ; and it does not shew equal extremes, the cause of which will presently appear. SUMMER AVERAGES CONTINUED. Average number of days East wind first 8 years, Average number of days East wind last 8 years, Average number of days West wind first 8 years, 113? Average number of days West wind last 8 years, 103 j WINTER AND SUMMER AVERAGES OF THE SHORT RAINS. Average number Short Rains by winters in 16 years,....521 Average number Short Rains by summers in 16 years, 53 J The state of both winds, by the summers, is exactly the reverse of the state by the winters in this period ; in the former the sum of East wind is increasing, and the sum of the West decreasing, to which is owing the greater equality in the rate of compression and comminution of the summer rains ; a contrivance, the wisdom of which cannot be sufficiently admired, for notwithstanding this most favourable arrangement, the deplorable summers of 1816 and 1817, are among the last 8 years of the present calculation ; so that matters would have been infinitely worse had not the East wind been greatly on the increase upon the summers of these years. Never- theless, it is the state of the winter winds, which is most powerful in effect, as it determines the summer weather, the comminution being greatly increased on these seasons, notwithstanding of the op- posite state of the winds ; this last arrangement, however, appears intended to correct the effect of the other, as in times of great Ex- cess East in the winters, such a took place in the first 8 years, there is commonly Deficiency upon the summers, which in the re- sult oppose each other ; so that in this distribution an equal incon- venience, though of opposite character, is avoided, as is the case * This is about the mean of the short rains, calculating from the line to the poles of the earth ; the short rains increasing with the latitude, and the great rains thu contrary : the extremes of these classes cannot be determined by the Author, not having been beyond the British Islands; but the rate of the short rains increases, and the rate of the great rains decreases, both considerably within the limits oV Croat Britain, from south to north. 32 'GENERAL VIEW. [Part II. ' in the other division, but in a less degree. Hence on the whole, a mean state is preserved at all times, as far as the nature 'of the sub- ject will admit. The winter, moreover, being the first half of the weather year, in which is the root or origin of the winds, is of course more powerful in determining the yearly phenomena; for the sum- mer winds may be compared to the branches, and hence the infe- rior rate of all the elements of this season : the winter winds are also the most powerful in force and effect, the most steady or regular, yet all possible extremes Jail upon the winter season ; of which many examples appear in the years observed, see the History of the Wea- ther, Pali III. TABLE VI. Number of Days Rain, Snow, Frost, $c. INT this Table, the title at top of each column shew the contents ; the circumflexes denote the pairs of frosty winters, and the pairs of cold summers: the asterisks point out the seasons in the different storms. The Cycles of the winds are, one on the right and one on the left hand of the tables. The average number of days on which rain falls in winter is 88, in summer 8-1-, and the annual average 172, The average of the frost in winter is 60 days; the frost of summer and autumn is marked in the 2d column of the summer table, with the letters s and a. The principle of increasing comminution, in the first sixteep years of the table, will be recognised in the increase of the number of days on which rain fell, especially in the three great changes, or storms of each lot of Deficiency East, which gradually increases from the first to the last. The compressed state is observed to be on the return on the latter years of the table, owing to the same, or nearly the same state of the Annual winds being at hand, as on the first years of the table; that is, en 1821 the single Excess VVcv-t appears, and on the following year the single Deficiency East, both which will materially compress the weather, from the circumstances of the storm and cold preceding by several years, and there being several more years before the next storm or change, or until 1825, which will have the first change of this description, the lot of double Deficiency East and quadruple Excess West, being then in operation. In each of the storms and cold periods are a pair of frosty win- ters, yet the winter with the hardest frost in the first Eighteen year period, is under the single Excess East of 1814-, partly owing to the previous wet summer; yet both these seasons are in a course of mild and regular weather : all the winters hitherto have been frosty after a wet summer, so that this must be a general rule in the wea- Part //.] NUMBER OF DAYS RAIN', &C. 33 The thunder appears much more frequent on the summer of the first year of Excess West of a lot, when the Excess West begins with the previous winter; and there is thunder in winter when the East wind is in Excess previous summer. There were Aurorae Boreales observed on the first winter in the list, but not committed to the Register, as at that time it was not supposed that this phenomenon had any connection with the wea- ther; but in the succeeding seasons this omission was corrected: the other spaces not containing any A. B.* shew that none were ob- served. This interesting object is more frequently to be seen in Scot- land than in England, while it is the reverse with the lightening anci the thunder; this last, in the former country, is scarcely ever heard in winter, excepting after Excess East wind in the summer, but in more southern latitudes it is said to be more or less common at all times. The temperature of the last five summers of the table is low, m consequence of the long continued Deficiency of East wind upon the winters ; and though the Excess East of winter 1 820 is nominally something considerable, it is virtually very low, the winds of this season being chiefly northerly, and extremely variable. All the lots of Deficiency East are accompanied by a low state of the tempera- ture in the summers, but the quadruple Deficiency is not only par- ticularly low, but is even followed by a low state for several years; yet the summers immediately succeeding the 1817 were among the warmest by da)', since the commencement of the Register, while the night air, with little exception, was unusually cold. This shews the deteriorating nature of this state of the wind ; and there can ba no remarkable amendment of the mean temperature by the sum- mers, until after the single Excess West, and single Deficiency East of 1821 and 22 appears. The summers of 1807 and 1817 were the two coldest in the list, and the frost much exceeded the ordinary rate in each ; yet the very next summers in both instances, though not remarkable for a high temperature on the average, are wholly without frost, as if this ele- ment had been exhausted on the previous summers. This is the rule with most or ail the phenomena of the weather one extreme comes after another. The October foggs appear most frequent before frosty winters, and therefore form one of the signs indicating the nature of the succeeding seasons; at least this has been the rule in the pe- riod observed. But the great number noted in 1813, is partly owing to the elevation of the place of observation, the registering * When the A. B. are seen on any night, though past midnight, which ia not very often the case, it is termed one appearance of the phenomena ; but when there is frost on a night, it counts as (wo days of frost in the Register, that is, if there is frost oyer the whole night ; at times, however, the frost appears but for part of the night, either early in the evening, or early in the morning, in which fases it rates but as one day of frost, 84- GENERAL VIEW. [PfflH //. of this season being made at DARTMOOR FOREST io DEVONSHIRE, which is at least 800 feet above sea level. Experience will deter- mine the propriety of this calculation in the weather. TABLE Vll. Number of Cloudy and Clear Days, fyc. THE state of compression and of comminution is most conspi- cuous by this Table : the greatest number of cloudy and clear days being in the first years, when the great rains prevailed, and when the years of Deficiency East are fewest ; and when by the seasons the Excess East is greatest upon the winters, and the Excess West most frequent upon the summers. The cloudy and clear days are at a moderate rate under the current triple Excess East, (but in- creasing rapidly) because the weather has been extremely broken by the recent quadruple aud triple Deficiency East, and that the rate of the East wind under, the current triple Excess East, is at a low rate upon the winters: but there is a gradual increase observed on account of the weather settling, and the extreme of regularity will take place between the lots of single and double Deficiency East which succeeds, as observed between the same lots in the first Eighteen year period registered, when the cloudy and clear days were most prevalent after which the same process in the reduction, or change of this state, but not with the same rapidity and to the same extent, for reasons to be stated in the succeeding pages. Under the first triple Excess East of 1801 5 G, and a few; subsequent years, when the weather was most regular, settled, and mild, the clouds were most commonly of great extent, and very in- dolent, obscuring the sky for many days together at a time, and the clouds almost always of the same uniform character, such as have received the denomination of " Cumulo Stratus." The clear spaces were likewise .of great extent; but the change, or storm of 1807, and the frequency of high wind under the quadruple Excess^ began to break these enormous masses, or sheets of clouds, which however appeared no easy matter, the elements having acquired a great firmness by so many years of rest and these storms and high winds continually attacked the weather under each of the succeed- ing lots of Excess West, until the year 1818 inclusive, from which is a slow return to the original state, in consequence of the return ot the same state of the winds, with some variation in the arrangement; Under the second triple Excess however, the compressed state is in- ferior in degree, to that under the first triple, because the second, or current triple comes immediately after the quadruple Deficiency;- whereas the first is preceded by a single Deficiency, and this again by a single Excess, which throws it more forward in the Eighteen year period, ty a part in which the weather is naturally more com- Part ///] Off CLOUDY AND CLEAR DAYS, &C. 85 pressed, from the repeated years of mild and settled weather moreover, the previous quadruple Deficiency, at the termination of the last century, was itself not accompanied 1 bv the most remarka- ble comminution, because of the quadruple being preceded by a tlouble Excess East, instead of a single Excess which preceded the quadruple observed by the register. The principle reason why the cloudiness is greatest under the larger lots of Excess East, assisted by moderate, mild, and regular weather, such as accompanied the first j*ipic, appears to arise from the circumstance of the two winds (the East and West) being in this n, therefore it will be easy for Journalists to detect the sum for their own gratification for the system of the winds having been once discovered, it not only preserves itself, but it teaches how the subject ought to be treated, $s happens in every other science. TABLE X. Detail of Days Unchangeable Winds* THIS Table contains the number of days unchangeable winds in all points of the compass, but' of which only sixteen or alternate points are given, the wind of those omitted, being rated upon the points contained in the Table. The comparative compression is in the same order as in all the other Tables: in the present the increase of comminution is pointed out by the increase of the variables, and consequent decrease of the invariables, or unchangeable days wind; and on the very last year is so low that the principle cannot possibly be extended further, which indicates that an immediate return to the original steady winds is to be expected ; most probably, however, the wind will not be quite so regular, as on the first years observed, until the same portion of the Cycle comes round again. In the course the year 1813, and in particular the winter of that year, is a most singular excep- tion to the general run of the variables, which are almost as few as those of the first winter in the list. It might be even enquired, wh ,- the wind of this first winter of the lot is so regular, since the Excels PdTt I/.] DAYS OF UNCHANGEABLE WINDS. 39 West is upon the summer of the year, and since the current win- ter of 18'Jl is distinguished by an opposite state, though the Excess West is like the former on the summer season of the year ? The ex- planation of this question is to be found in the circumstance of the single Excess East of 1S02, coming after the quadruple Deficiency, whereas the single Excess East which succeeded, is before the next quadruple Deficiency, on the ISI^, which is the principle cause of the great comminution of all the elements of the weather under this quadruple Deficiency^ and in degree to the present time. In this remarkable year of 1813 alluded to more than once, the unchangeable winds are above average in the four cardinal points, in the same manner as under the previous triple Excess East, while on the other years, particularly those following, these winds are all under the Average or Deficiency. A most unexpected result appears on summing the days invaria- ble wind in the East and West of the whole period, the total being almost exactly in the proportion which the one wind bears to the other, as given by the general system, there being 1395 days un- changeable East, and 21 A3 days unchangeable West, a coincidence wholly unexpected, and which shows that the line of division, or axis of the wind has been almost if not exactly pitched upon, and is the more remarkable from the continual change in the place of observa- tion : and there can be no doubt that by proper observation and cal- culation these two sums will be exactly in the proportion of 2 to 3 in a revolution of the Cycle. So far as observations have been made, there is always one or more entire days of unchangeable wind in the South East point every winter, and in the South West point every summer. The order of these winds beginning with the most frequented points, is the following, SW. NW. SE. WSVV. W. NE. ENE. E. SSW. VVNVV. S. N. ESE. SSE. NNE. NNW. by the annual rate. The only seasons upon which there is a whole day of unchange- able wind in all the points given in the table, are the winters of 1808 and 1809, and summer 1813; the two first being on the two last years of the quadruple Excess, and the last on the concluding year of the triple Excess West: the single Excess West at the com- mencement, and the double Excess West at or towards the conclu- sion, being most irregularly distributed, but each lot in a very dif- ferent manner and proportion : and it is not a little remarkable, that the winter of 1809 i? the mid-season of the Eighteen year period, and on which the winds are most evenly spread upon the compass. The whole process of the unchangeable winds, by this table, having a strong resemblance to a tree of three or four main trunks, spring- ing as it were from the single Deficiency East and single Excess West of the year 1803, each trunk spreading around in branches to the JbO.9 or middle of the period, when all the points of the compass are occupied, and then again contracting to the root form, by the tiaie of the succeeding single Deficiency East and single Excess 40 GENERAL \ f !EW. [Part II. West appearing ; in another view, the branches, it may be said, continue spreading from the 1809 downward, into the minutest de- gree possible, which is made apparent by the great increase of the variables the root form suddenly, taking place under the singles stated in 1821-22. See the SE. S. SW. VV. and NW. points, whose $ums of unchangeable winds, on the first years of the table, being very high, may be compared to the trunks, which on the succeed- ing years spread about as explained. Therefore, as the winds are most condensed on the first year, which is a single Deficiency East and single Excess West, and as this year is near the commence- ment of the Eighteen year period, so under the single Excess West of 1821, and single Deficiency East of 1822; the condensation of the winds upon a few points will again take place on these years, which are as before near the commencement of the current Eigh- teen year period : but the condensation will not be equally great, as these two singles of 1821 and 22 are upon different years, whereas both were formerly not only on the same year of 1803, but also upon the same season, the summer of that year: an equal condensa- tion of the winds at least, will probably not again take iplace, until the same year or state of wind returns, which will be in 1857. TABLE XI. Gales, High Winds, Barometer and Thermometer Averages, $c. IT were to be wished, (though only for the sake of uniformity) that observations upon the Barometer and Thermometer, had com- menced and been more regular in the first years ; but frequent jour- nies, &c. rendered this impracticable : in fact, it was intended to carry on observations without employing any instruments, though the Thermometer is one which ought not to be neglected. The result by the first instrument do not correspond with expec- tation generally: by the average, it stands lowest of all the seasons on the dry cold summer of 1812, but some allowance is to be made ac- cording to the elevation of the place of observation ; the season in question was observed at EDINBURGH, where the mercury stands lower by three or four lines, than at sea level : this season was not only dry and cold, but it was windy in a considerable degree, which is the main cause of the low state of the Barometer. The season of greatest elevation is also a cold one, the summer of 1817, which had average rain, and very calm; it was observed at PERTH, which is on the level of high water spring tide. The cause of the low and high state of this instrument is more particularly explained in the History of the Weather; from which it appears that the altitude depends upon the rate of comminution of the elements, especially of the wind and the rain, so that the increasing rate of the altitude, Part II."] GALES, HIGH WINDS, &C. 41 under the triple and quadruple Deficiency East is an index of the state of comminution of the elements." The state of the wind, as to force, generally determines the al- titude of the Barometer, but not always, for winter lf-08, which was very windy, with a great sum of rain, and the niObt snowy of all the seasons has a high average altitude : it had however the ad- vantage of heing observed on sea level.* It is probable the state of wind this season, as narrated in the preceding article, may in some degree explain the high state of the barometer, for the un- changeable winds are in all points of the compass this season : the succeeding winter exceeds in wind and rain, but mild, and the Ba- rometer is sufficiently depressed. The Annual average rate of the Thermometer coincides, in a re- markable degree, with the lots of Excess and Deficiency of East wind, being almost constantly lowest on the last ; but this corres- pondence is still more striking on the summers of these Iot8. The number of gales and high winds is greatly increased under the quadruple and triple Excess West, while the number ot' windy days is greatest generally, under the other states of the Annual winds. ' The gales to 1815, inclusive, are multiplied by 6, and divided by 4-, as stated in the article on the ' mode of conducting of observar tions, t by two rains a like correspondence is observed between the two dry summers of 1818 19, the last being dryer by two rains which is such an uniformity of prin- ciple as establishes the correctness of the individual sums of rain beyond all manner of doubt. This uniformity is not observed be- tween the single seasons of wet and dry, the range among these being considerable ; but the averages of both seasons are among themselves within two rains of the mean, though it is probable the range exceeds this rate at times. In the average rate of rain the same order is observed as of the wet and dry, no more than a pair of average seasons being together, whether in succession or rcjpec-f tively : and when wet and dry alternate by single seasons, the aver- ages in these courses are likewise limited to single seasons ; but af- ter or before a pair of wet or dry, is a pair of averages but when all the seasons of two successive years are in pairs, as in the instance of 180S 9, where the winters are a pair of wet, and the summers are a pair of dry, the first pair, in addition to the usual rule, is pre- ceded by a single average winter, and a pair of averages follow the pair of dry summers, see summer 1810, and winter 1811, already referred to The pair of wet summers is followed by a pair of aver- ages, summer 1817, and winter 1818, which pair of averages at the same time follow the pair of dry winters of 1816 17, but the pairs of wet and dry though closely following each other in this case, are not on t\vo successive years, as in the former instance, see the Table : this pair of averages also precede the pair of dry summers, 1818 19. The pairs of dry summers are in each case followed directly by a dry winter, see the dry winters of 1810 and 1817j Part //.] SYSTEM OR ORDER OF THE SUM OF RAIN, &C. 49 but the pair of dry winters is not followed by a dry summer. In the same manner, though the circumstances are reversed, the pairs of wet winters and wet summers are preceded, the first by a wet summer, and the last by a wet winter ; see the wet summer of 1807, which precedes the pair of wet winters 180S 9, and the wet winter of 1815, which precedes the pair of wet summers 181,5 16. A pair of wet or of dry seasons in one weather year is still more rare than any of the pairs stated, there being only one instance of each, viz. winter and summer of 1803, are both moderately dry, and winter and summer 181.5 are both moderately wet : the first pair is follow- ed on the summers by a pair of averages, and the last pair is followed on the wjnters by a pair of dry : so that wherever any pair ap- pears, there is a certainty of some other pair, or pairs being in con- tact, either by the winters, or by the summers, or by both. In the eighteen years committed to the Register, no average seasons are observed excepting in the transition from wet to dry, or from dry to wet, never standing by themselves, not only in the natural succession of the seasons, but a!so in the succession of win- ters and of summers, respectively; unless, indeed, when in pairs as in 1801- 5, which is preceded and followed by dry summers. In all transitions however an average is not found, that is, from dry to wet, and from the same wet to the next dry ; for if an average comes between the dry and wet, it does not come again between the same wet and the next dry ; and if an average do not come between the dry and wet, it is certain to come between the same wet and the next dry yet there appears nothing improbable in an average coming both before and after a pair, or before and after a single season of any other description. When however there are two extremes together, as in the win- ters of 18Q4> 5, there is a seeming exception to the above rules, as the average comes directly before the extreme dry, and also after the same extreme, but the first mentioned of these averages is evi- dently owing to the extreme wet which preceded for the extreme dry winter of 1820, by coming without the other extreme, is only followed by an average on the winter of 1821, this average could not fall upon the summers after the extreme ctry, as there was an average on summer 1817, before the pair of dry summers of 1818 and 1819, and before another average could appear upon the sum- mers, there ought, by the rules, to intervene some wet as well as dry seasons, therefore summer 1820 being above average rain, and pre- ceded by an extreme dry, it should be followed by an average winter, and a low average, it being after an extreme dry winter, and after a moderately wet smmmer : further, the average winter when preceded, by a dry winter, is followed by a wet winter, which is the winter of 1822, this winter, it is probable, forms one of a pair of wet winters, as from the state of the winds, the winter of 1823 promises to be also wet. All the rates of the rain, as wet average, and dry, appear PC" G f.O GENERAL VIEW. \_Purt 11. casionally In pair?, and between the pairs are all those rates in single seasons alternately, with this difference, that the rate of the pairs is al- ways a mean of the wet, a mean of the dry, or a mean of the aver- age ; for no season in a pair is ever in extreme but though the pairs have been observed of all descriptions, and in a continual variety of positions, and the single seasons in still greater variety as to sums and position, there is reason to believe that there is a continual change of position of all the rates during one revolution of the Cycle, Within certain limits, as the annual winds are limited. The general order of succession of the sum of rain by the win- ters is dry, average, wet, which order is repeated three times in succession, but never the contrary, as \vet, average, and dry ; both orders are however observed on the summers, one instance of each ; and always alternately wet and dry by single seasons between the pairs: the pairs being alternately wet and dry of course. The rules of the succession of the more and less quantities of the rain by the seasons, is by no means exhausted in this account of the period observed ; nor is that accuracy in the arragement of these rules as yet attained which is desireable ; moreover, a more extended view would swell this part of the work too much, especially as some fur- ther explanation will naturally come to be offered in the " History of the Weather,'* not only respecting these rules, but also of every other part of the subject : In the mean time it will be necessary to treat, and briefly, of the connection of the various rates of rain, especially that of the pairs, with the pairs of Excess and Deficiency of the winds, not only of the annual state, but also of the state by the seasons. The pairs of wet, average, and dry seasons, are almost always and particularly the regular pairs, under pairs of Excess and Defi- ciency of the winds by the Annual Rate, taking each of the quadru- ples as two pairs : thus, under the quadruple Excess^, double Defi- ciency, and double Excess East, which are all direct, or in succes- sion, are five pairs of wet, average, and dry ; that is, two pairs of wet, two pairs of dry, and one pair of average ; a pair of wet, and a pair of dry, being djrect in the columns of the table, or two winters, and two summers together, as marked by the circumflexes, (and with the pairs of averages are termed regular pairs) the others being across the columns, or one of each pair in each column : and it is remarkable that the quadruple Deficiency East, the double Excess and double Deficiency West, which are together, or in succession, have exactly the same number of pairs, and of the same kind, as Tinder the first lots just mentioned, which are the reverse of each Other, and accordingly the arragement of the pairs is reversed, with this further difference, that the pair of averages comes in between the two pairs of dry, whereas in the first course under the quadruple Excess the pair of averages are last, owing no doubt to the different arrangement of the doubles of Excess and Deficiency ef the annual us opposed to the quadruples. Part //.] SYSTENf OR ORDEIl OF THE SUM OF RAIX, &C. 51 Under the double Deficiency West of the 1804- 5, just before the quadruple Excess, is a pair of averages which is direct in the co- lumns of the Tables, whereas all the other pairs of averages arc across, or one of each pair in each of the seasons. The triple De- ficiency East and triple Excess West have no pairs direct, but there are under these lots two pairs across, though somewhat irregular, of which one is wet and the other dry. Under the single Deficiency East and single Excess West of the first year, are also a pair, which is dry : but under the single Deficiency East, and single Deficiency West of 1822, the indication is different, there being on this year, most probably, a pair of wet seasons : while under the single Excess West, and last of triple Excess East of the 1821, the probability is a pair of average seasons, see the small figures denoting the pairs. By the seasons the pairs of Excess and Deficiency are always, it would appear, of the same number with the pairs of wet, average, and dry, for down to 1819 inclusive, the number of pairs of each class are just 11, those of the winds are seven of Excess, and seven of Deficiency, of which three are Excess East, and four Excess West ; and three Deficiency East, and four Deficiency West : those of the rains are, five pairs wet, six pairs dry, and three pairs aver- age. Though no more than a pair of wet, or of dry seasons, have appeared at a time since the commencement of the Register, there is reason to suppose, that the bounds of wet and dry is more extend- ed, but the precise limits cannot be determined, except by conti- nued observations of the weather. Reversion of the Weai1ier t *!N continuation of the preceding article, the pair of wet winters appeared under the quadruple Excess, with a pair of dry summers upon the same years ; while opposite weather, a pair of wet sum- mers, and followed as in the other case, by a pair of dry winters, appeared under the quadruple Deficiency ; the sum of each pair by winters and by summers, being in the proportion which the average rate of these seasons bear to each other; the weather and sum of rain being reversed on the reversion of the winds : at the same time, it might be supposed, that the quadruple Excess West, and the quadruple Deficiency East, were the same thing, but it is not so, for the quadruple Excess is opposed by a double Deficiency East, and the quadruple Deficiency East is opposed by a double Excess West it must be owned that this explanation leaves the distinction as before, and that the term ' Reversion' is not quite satisfactory, the difference being more of the nature of the ' Positive' and Ne- gative' as employed in electricity, &c. The principle of reversion is general in all the circumstances of 52 GENERAL VIEW. [Part II. the weather, through the whole system, and through all time the time of revolution of the reversion in the Eighteen year period ob- served, is seven years, this being the number elapsing from the first season of the triple Excess East to the first season of the triple De- ficiency East ; the weather of the first lot being reversed under the second, and that of the second on the first again in the order of succession,\so that the weather of one triple Excess East is nearly the same under the succeeding triple Excess, the difference being According to the different arrangement of the other lots. Also it is the same number of years from the pair of wet winters, to the pair of wet summers from the pair of dry summers to the pair of dry winters, and from the alternate single seasons of dry and wet win- ters to the alternate s-ingle seasons of dry and wet summers a'l which are so many examples of the nature of reversion in the wea- ther, the wet and dry winters, after a certain time coming round as fret and dry summers in the same order, &c. In the current Eighteen year period, which commenced with ]818, a new arrangement appears, for the time, intervening between the first season of the triple Excess East to the first season of the triple Deficiency East, is nine years, and the times of reversion un- der the third period is different from both the others; the lots of triple Excess East and triple Deficiency being beside each other, and this conjunction is observed in the last division of the current period. A more particular account of the nature of the reversion of the weather on the reversion of the lots of the winds is the following : the first and last winters of the first triple Excess East are wet, and the middle winter dry : on the other hand, the first and last summers of the triple Deficiency East, see these lots, are wet and the middle summer dry, the two first being almost exactly in proportion to the corresponding winters of the triple Excess, the winter weather cf the Excess revolving upon the summers of the Deficiency, with a general reversion of the temperature, the mild winters making cold summers, and the contrary. Again, the weather of the current triple Excess East is the reverse of that observed under the triple Defi- ciency, the mid summer of the triple Excess being wet, and the others dry, whereas the mid winter is dry, and the others wet and average, or exactly the reverse of the order under the lot of triple Deficiency East ; see the different lots of the winds by the years and by the seasons, with the sum of rain in each of the last, together with the temperature as contained in the Tables in short, it will be necessary to become familiar with all the circumstances of each sea- son to be able to perceive the connection of one with another, of one lot with another, and finally of one Eighteen year period with ano- ther : but for this purpose, it will be necessary to consult the ' His- tory of the Weather,' wherein every particular belonging to the subject is brought into view. Notwithstanding of the beautiful regularity in the order of the Part //.] REVERSION OP THE WEATHER, &C. 63 sum of rain by the seasons and it is hard to determine which most to admire, the system of the winds or of the rains, though the last is wholly dependent upon the first ; it is yet possible that the dis- position to a certain extent may be different in dfferent revolutions of the Cycle : for the annual Excess and Deficiency of the winds admit of an almost infinite variety, in the mode of distribution upon the seasons, and the rain of course be distributed accordingly ; though the annual system itself, however the averages of the wind and rain may rise or fall, must remain fixed, since this is the great regulator of the weather. And it may be stated in concluding the General View, that the rate of wind and rain, and all the other ele- ments of the weather, is never at an average, the quantity of each being always above, or always below the mean and that it is pro- bable this mean is of great range in long periods of time, so that what forms an Excess at one time, may not be equal to the Defi- ciency of another, and the contrary. The system of the winds was discovered in an instant, but the dis- covery of the rules of the rain has been made by slow degrees, and took a course of years in accomplishing, and even some of the most important were only perceived while preparing this account for the press nor can a proper account be completed until a whole revolution of the Cycles of the wind and rain is observed by the register. In the investigation which led thus gradually to the pro- gress made, one particular rose upon another, though the sums are all as calculated in the first instance, (excepting the sum of the winds, in which is a slight difference from the discovery of the true axis,) as may be seen by the publications in 1818, and the manu- script copies and explanations of the Cycles of the Wind distri- buted at EDINBURGH previous to the printing, at which time there was not the smallest suspicion of the nature of the principles which regulated the succession of the sums of the rain. 54 GENERAL VIEW. [Part IT, List of Averages. AVERAGE SUM OF RAIN OF SEVEN DRY WINTERS, viz. Winters 1803, 5, 10, 13, 16, 17, & 20, average sum rain 37 rains. Average winters left out of course. AVERAGE RAIN OF SEVEN WET WINTERS, viz. Winters l&Oi, 6, 8, 9, 12, 15, & 19, average sum rain 56 rains. AVERAGE FROST OF SEVEN MILD WINTERS, viz. Winters 1803, 4, 6, 9, 13, 15, & 19, average days frost 40 days. Average winters left out of course. AVERAGE OF EIGHT FROSTY WINTERS, viz. Winters 1807, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 & 20, average days frost 80 days, AVERAGE RAIN OF EIGHT DRY SUMMERS, viz. Summers 1803, 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 18, 19, average sum rain 33 rains. AVERAGE RAIN OF SIX WET SUMMERS, viz. Summers 1807, 11, 13, 15, 16, & 20, average sum rain 50 rains. Average summers in both instances left out of course. GENERAL AVERAGES. Winter Average Rain, < 4-8. Summer Average Rain.... .....4-1 Winter Average Frost, in days 60. Summer Average temprt 55? Winter Wind East, do .... 68. Summer Wind East, in days, 71 Winter Wind West, do... 105. Summer Wind West do 108 Winter Average Days Rain, 88. Summer Average Days Rain 84 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. Mild Winters, 42 1 Mild Summers, 58 \ Mean, 50 1 Mean, 47 Frosty...,.do 36 J Cold Summers, 51 J Mean, 44 j FAHT. Monthly Temperature. May. June. July. Aug. Sept. Oct. Mean. Mild Summers,! 55 61 62 62 57 50) 57 & Cold Summers,]" 46 53 56 55 51 46 j 5H Difference, 9 8 6 7 6 4 6f The average of the summer monthly temperature is taken from the first fifteen years : it is something lower than it will be found from a revolution of the Cycle, as the first fifteen years observed Part //.] LIST OF AVERAGES. 55/ had more cold summers than is contained in any other equal num- ber of years; say mean annual temperature of the British Islands, from 4*9 to 50. These averages are however a mere approximation to the real averages, the observations having been made in different quarters of the Island ; besides, the averages are continually fluctuating from less to more, and from more to less, in different periods of time, and in different places : but the results obtained are sufficiently accurate for general purposes. The limits of mild winters and cold summers fe the mean rate, or about 49* FAHRENHEITS' A warm summer may be as'many degrees above this rate, as a cold winter may be under : the winter 1816 is li below the, mean, therefore a summer may be as man^ degrees above, but the extent of heat and cold must be something greater than thus instanced. Every place, whether as to latitude or longitude, elevation or depression, &c., has its own peculiar mean rate of temperature, of rain, and of every other phenomenon of the weather : and even places on the same latitude and elevation, have a different mean rate, which depends upon an almost infinity of circumstances, but especially upon the neighbourhood of the ocean, or other waters, mountains, being upon opposite coasts, &c. : as for instance, an average rate of rain, or temperature, &c. on any season, will be of a different rate in every place, yet every place has the average rate, EXPLANATION or THE TABULAR VIEWS OF THE SEASONS, &c. OP III. PREFIXED to each season is a Tabular View of the sum of the different pheno- mena of -the Weather of the Season. The Excess and Deficiency of the princi- pal elements, by the seasons, or half-year, are distinguised by the ordinary si^ns of plus -J~ and minus , and th.e sign of equal or average =, in the lower column. The indications furnished by these sums are stated in the descriptive part fol- lowing : the sign or state of wind by th.e year, from the System or Cycle, is given in letters, and also in words at length at the top of every winter list : the first capi- tal letter means the East wind Excess or Deficiency, as the case may happen ; and the second letter, the West wind Excess or Deficiency : the places where^ the sea- son is observed, are stated immediately over the Tabular View in small print : and under the ' Character of the Season,' is detailed the rate of the winds, as the Ex- cess or Deficiency of East and West, according to circumstances, followed by a description of the other most prominent particulars for which the season may be remarkable. Advantage is taken of the rules of the System in the descriptive part, of prog- nosticating the weather expected in the succeeding seasons : and the notes upon the harvest, or such other matters as are not immediately connected with die Science of the Weather, are inserted at the bottom of the pages. in. TABULAR VIEW WINTER 1803. Commencing on the first day of November 1802, being the Jirst. Season of the third year of the Eighteen Year Period. D. E. Year of Single Deficiency East, & Single Excess West Wind. SCTHERLAJJDSHIRE. Bar. Ther. G reat Hains. Alodt. Hains. Short Rains. ^ A.B. Snow. | Tliun- ' Light- der. ning. 14 18 42 21 i Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Days Frost. Wind Var. Wind EAST. Wind WE.T. 29 26 2 74 45 52 15 82 97 Cloudy Clouds. ."?! 9*2 Clear. 58 14 8 + 14 8 CHARACTER OF THE SEASON. Great Excess Eatt, and Deficiency West 'vind, Under Average Rain t Mild, Modefale, and Clear, tvitk considerable IViiidiness. WHEN the East wind prevails much in the winters, the weather is always more or less regular, even when the quantity of rain great- jy exceeds the average, and in particular when the wind is steady, as in the present, which is the winter with the least number of va- 53 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [P>/ ///. riable flays whirl in the whole list : the variables of the tabular views consisting of the changes from East to West, or from West to East, generally ; the variables from one point to another, being given iu Table 9, and explained in the General View, Part II. All the winters of Excess East, in the first Eighteen year period, have been followed by dry summers, at least not exceeding an aver- aye, therefore this ruust be a general rule in the system ; but the? actual quantity of rain for next summer from the state of the pre- soiit season only, is not to be determined ; as the previous quanti- ties of the preceding seasons have been calculated from other Jour- nals, which is given in the Appendix, but as there could he no Excess West for sortie years back, the indication for next season is an under average rale of rain : it will be sufficient for the present however to note the quantity which falls, the rules displaying them- selves, as the years and seasons observed are multiplied. The state of the wind this season is opposite to that of the yearly rate, it being Excess East and Deficiency West, whereas the An- nual rate is Deficiency East and Excess West ; consequently a great reverse must take place in the summer winds, in order to implement the rate for the year : therefore, the summer should have a very high Excess West, and a proportionable Deficiency of East wind. It is shewn by the Cycle, and stated in the General View, that the Deficiency East, and Excess West of this year are singles, that 'is, each compose a lot by itself, the preceding and succeed- ing being of an opposite description. From the explanation guen of the effect of the single Excess West, in producing most regular wind and weather, it happens to be the very best calculated for a commencement of observations, since under this state it is easy to find the sum of the winds : had the register been undertaken at those parts of the Cycle, which are so remarkable fqr irregular winds, especially between the double and single Excess Westj the secret of the System of the winds, might have remained long unknown, eyen with the most careful attentign to the phenomena of the weather. In this winter the Aurora? Boreales appeared several times, con- densed and beautiful, and on some few occasions of a blood-red co- lour, low down or near the ground, and accompanied by a thrum- ming noise which might be compared to thunder in miniature; the v/eatber being at the same time very settled : the appearance of this phenomenon was not marked, in the Register of this season, as explained in the General View. The chief singularity for which the present season is distinguish- ed, is by the very low rate of the variables, which are so few as to amount to little more than two changes in the month ; whereas in \f inter of 1820, almost every day is variable, though the 3 7 ear is immediately before tlie same stace of wind, as that presently treated of. Notwithstanding of the steady fixed character of the winds or* the present season, there was variety enough of the weather, with Part WINTER 1803. however a high proportion of the great rains, and a low rate of the short rains, a result of the steady winds ; for when the great rains are few and the short are many, the winds are almost always variable in proportion for instance, the winter of 1820, already alluded to, li ad the greatest number of variable days wind ; and accordingly, on that season not one great rain appears, which is the only excep- tion of the kind. The crossing of the winds of the seasons of this year is remark- ably decided, and opposite to the annual state, and is a crossing which favours a considerable elevation of the temperature on the summer: but when this element is active, as it must be under Ex- cess West, (though moderately so in the present instance, it beinpr a single Excess) the temperature under such circumstances cannot be at an extreme; this happening under the more indolent state ot Deficiency West, and even Excess East : this last being but a weak wind compared with the Excess West. SUMMER 1803. SL'THERLAKDSHIRF. Bar. Ther. Great Mcxlt. Rains. Rains. Short Rains. Oct Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. , 5 1?5 72 2 7 \ \ Gaels. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain.! Frost. t Var. EAST. WEST. 10 53 3 93 37 s. a. 4 29 46 135 CIdy. 53 Clouds 111 Cltar. 20 + 9 4 25 + 27 CHARACTER. Very great Deficiency East t and Very great Excess. West. Dry, Sultry. THE excessive comminution of the rain, which is without exam- ple in the period observed, by the summers, shew the effect of the single Deficiency East and single Excess West, when combined upon a single season, which however only happens once in a revolution ; and this isthe more remarkable, that the state of the rain and winds of the preceding winter have been quite the contrary the indication from this excessive number of the short rains, is an approaching great fall, and the more intense from the Excess West of this seasoa, 60 HISTORY of THE WEATHER. Part Ill.j forming not only a whole lot by itsejf, but by the system is a fresh wind, it being preceded by a triple Deficiency West, and being crossed on the next year by a great lot of Excess East ; and by the rules of the current Eighteen year period, it shews also a mild win- ter, but the frequency of Aurora; Boreales in the autumn indicates considerable cold, or much snow with the rain. Tn this season some cold weather took place in the last days of May, and first days of June, which may be reckoned as the remains of the deteriorated weather of the quadruple Deficiency East, which preceded ;* but the rest of this last month and July were dry and sul- try, with a most arid air, which greedily absorbed the moisture :f a state always observed as an effect of great Excess East in winter, which would in the present instance have been still more forcibly felt, but for the great Excess West of the summer, while the effect of a great Excess East in the summer is quite opposite on the win- ter following, particularly when the annual state is Deficiency East. The quantity of rain of both the seasons of this year, is unlike in order to any of the others in the whole course or Eighteen year period to which it belongs, for each is under average. An oppo- site order is however observed, and but once in the same course, and is also under Deficiency East, but the first of a long lot, the quadruple Deficiency ; upon both seasons of which there is an over average rate of rain, and moderately so, as that of the present year is but moderately under. The meaning of the low rate of East wind this season, (at least in one sense) is explained under the summer of the last year of the quadruple Deficiency, which conclude?/ as the present commences^ \ a whole course of Deficiency East. \ J The very few instances of thunder, is occasioned by the great Excess East, and Deficiency West of the preceding winter. The sum of the variable days wind, is among the lowest in the list by the summers, which shews that the rate is a beginning course, since there is a general increase down to 1820, (the year immedi- ately before the next single Excess West) on which there is an ex- treme of the opposite state. The principal bulk of the wind is North West, which in part is owing to the high latitude of the place of observation. See Table of unchangeable winds. * This irregular distribution of heat and cold was still more remarkable on the previous summer of the lt-02. f The crops were in consequence much stunted, particularly in the northern counties. Part lit ] WINTER 1801. WINTER 1804. Fourth Year of the Period of Eighteen Years. E. D. First year of Triple Excess East, and first year of Double Deficiency West. CAITHNESS. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 27 29 43 38 i 1 Gales. Windy Calms Days Rain. Amount Rain, Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 23 47 99 73 49 11 27 104 78 Cldy. 'Clouds Clear. , 82 86 14 + 25 + 36 -27 CHARACTER. Vert/ great Excess East, and Very great Deficiency West t Extraordinary Wet, Mild, Cloudy, with much Snow. NOTWITHSTANDING of an almost overwhelming quantity of rain, this season appears to have the most compressed weather of any in the list, the great and moderate rains much exceeding the number of the short, which is without example in the period of the weather observed, so that on this account it may be termed the most regu- lar of all the seasons ! This season, and those about this period, form a perfect contrast to those subsequently observed under Defi- ciency of East wind : all the appearances are different from those coming in a storm, though the days snow are seldom equalled, or the quantity which fell, yet the frost is considerably under average : it could not be otherwise with such excessive rains. There are a con- siderable number of windy days, while the gales and high windsare not many, a result owing to the moderate activity given to the wind by the previous Excess West, which had a high rate of windy days see last summer. The number of cloudy days is the highest observed upon any season, at least of the current Eighteen year period, and is partly the result of the very frequent great rains. The number of days 62 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par/ ///. partly cloudy and partly clear is among the lowest, while the num- ber of the clear days is considerable, which is always the case under Excess East wind, because under these lots the North wind is most frequent. The Excess East of this season is also without example, and the Deficiency West the same, at least by the winters, it being now as much short of the average, as last season it was over ; it is to be understood when comparing of seasons, that those in a pe- riod of Eighteen are signified. It would appear that the very compressed weather of this period 5s on account of the extraordinary quantity of rain of the present season, as without this providential arrangement, the effect of so ranch rain upon a single season (it. being more than the whole quan- tity of the j'ear following) would have been severely felt ; for let it be only supposed that an equal quantity were to fall. in times of* great comminution, what must have been the result ? It is elsewhere stated that this sum of rain is the greatest which falls upon any sea- son in all the yearsof the Cycle, and for this andother reasons that the compression of the weather is not equalled in any Other portion of the Cycle : now if no such extreme quantity of rain falls on any other season, neither is there occasion for equally compressed wea- ther. The indication from all these circumstances, which are quite uncommon, is a dry summer : but after so much rajp the summer is not to be expected to exceed in dryness, so great a fall not being terminated at once : for the dryest summers come after moderately wet winters, or before, or after wet summers. The rery great Ex- cess East indicates a mild and cloudy summer, but the heat is not usually at an extreme after a great Excess East wind in winter, and with annual Excess East, Under which northerly winds are most common, the warmest summers being under Deficiency East by the year, and by the winters ; and the coldest are also under the same state, of which more particularly when the examples of each come to be treated of. All the winters are wet after an Excess West in summer, if the Excess is at the commencement of a lot of annual Excess, until the third instance in succession, while the wet summers are always after a summer of Excess East, and also until the third instance in suc- cession ; so that the summer state of wind indicates the winter and summer weather to follow; an arrangement which maybe termed providential, the summer weather being of most importance to bo foreseen. The other indications are after an extreme comes an average,; if the average do not precede : and the absence of the thunder, at least in high northern latitudes, indicates a dry summer the absence of this phenomenon in such a waste of rain and snow is truly surpris- ing, Snd serve to confirm the laws under which it takes place in winter, viz. an Excess of East wind in the previous summer -in the present instance this previous Excess is greatly in the West. Part ///.] SUMMER 18(H, &C. The principal sum of unchangeable wind is nearly the same as in the preceding winter, with more of East, and less of West ot course. SUMMER 1804. CAITHNESS. Bar. /flier. Oreat Rains. Mod-.. Rains. Short Rains. Oct.. Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 7 24 53 2 S Gales. Windy Calms. Davs Rain. Amount Rain Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 19 34 10 84 42 s. 1 a. 5 24 70 104 Cldy. 67 Clouds 102 Clear. 15 = + 1 I _^^ 4 CHARACTER. Deficiency East, Deficiency West; Average Rain, Mild, Cloudy. THOUGH the quantity of rain is moderate, or average, the num- ber of short rains exceeds that of last season., which would shew that the deposition of rain resulting from the great Excess West of the preceding summer, only terminated with the present season; for the number of the short rains is greatest at the commencement and termination of every change. AH the phenomena of the present season are about average, ex- cepting the cloudy days, which exceed any of the summers in the list i and also the days variable wind, which are few. The Deficiency West wind, which is the next greatest, though but a slight deviation froon the average, is one of the conditions lead- ing to a succeeding wet summer, but as the other condition, a great Excess East is wanting ; the next summer is indicated to have aver- age rain likewise. The Deficiency West in the whole of this year now expired, points to a dry winter in the next, and an average rate of the frost, after an average rate of rain. The absence of Ex- cess East, of Aurorce Boreales, and of October Foggs, on the present season, indicates a mild winter. It is a rule to rate average frost as a mild winter, provided the average quantity be not an almost one continued iVost, which may probably sometimes happen : a really frosty winter is much above the average ; see the List of Averages. The year now done is the first of the denomination, which is term- ///. ed " Wet'' in the List, the state of the wind being Excess East in winter, and Deficiency in the summer, and Deficiency West in both seasons. See the Table of the sum of rain by the season, with the account of the rotation of the East wind on the wet years. WINTER 1805. Being the Fifth \ear of the Period of Eighteen Years. E. D. The Second Year of Triple Excess Easl, and last of Double Deficiency West. CAITHNESS. SUTHERLAND&HlBe. Bar. Ther. Great Modt. Rains. Rains. Short Rains. i Days Snow. A. B. Thun- der. Light ning. 5 Calms. 12 25 20 3ales. Windy Days Rain. Amonnt Raii; Frost. Var. EAST. Wfc-ST 2* 29 4 42 23 58 25 88 ; 89 Cldy. 60 Cloud? 73 Clear. 48 46 25 2 + 20J K CHAKACTER. Great Excess East, Great Deficiency West : Extraordinary Dry, Mild, Clear. EQUALLY uncommon is this with the preceding, in the opposite extreme, the Deficienpy of rain this season, being equal to the Ex- cess of the other. The rains were doled out upon each month in almost equal shares as if the utmost economy was necessary after the pro- fusion of the former winter; so that one winter is more connected with another, than with the summer; and the same rule with the summers: Why this wonderful reversion in the character and con- dition of two successive seasons of winter, at least in the sum of rain, may be seen by the state of the winds, the wet winter being pic- ceded by Excess West, and the dry winter being preceded by De- ficiency West wind. But the mere change from Excess to Defi- ci^ncy West wind would not have effected such great extremeties ; Part 111.'] WINTE& 1805. C5 these are as much owing to the excessive Excess East of the first winter, (the great Excess of winter 180%) and the continuance, or repetition of nearly the same Excess East on the current winter. Tlfte System of the Weather may be said to shew a general pro- vidence, but the distribution of the elements by the seasons, shtiv a special, or particular providence, according to the nature of the materials. It results from the effect of this state of the wind, that when a triple Excess East, or any other lot of Excess East is not imme- diately preceded by Excess West, the consequence must be very dry weather, until the Excess West appears, but there are few lots of Excess East so circumstanced, and none of tlie triples, which would occasion serious inconvenience ; the double Excess East of 1823 24-, k the first instance of this kind, but both these years of Excess are opposed by Excess West, so that the consequent effect of the double Excess East is immediately corrected ; besid-es, that the first season of the first year of Excess East, deposits much rain, though preceded by Deficiency West ; the same remark applies to to the double and single Excess East of the 18j? 38, and the 8401 see these lots in die Cycles. l?f corroboration of these remarks, it appears by the very next Reason that a change to Excess takes place, though under annual Deficiency, which is followed by proportionable rain on the next win- ter ; thus, dry and wet continually alternate, according to the al- ternation of Excess and Deficiency of the winds by the years and by the seasons, whether positive or negative, the extremes taking place under the first of these states. The prognostication for the ensuing season is, a mild winter with Excess East and Deficiency West, is followed by a dry mild sum- mer : but the East wind being on the decrease, and the West in- creasing, the succeeding season cannot be remarkable for mildness, because the East is beginning to forsake the winters to blow on the summers : and the warmest sunnners are when the East is increas- ing and the West diminishing. As to the other indications, they may be wholly overlooked, since after every extreme dry, or wet, there comes an average, the present extreme having the singularity of being preceded and fol- lowed by average, because of the two extremes which earcie together on the winter of 1804-, and the current. The total absence of A. B. which means that none were observed, is remarkable, there being much clear sky and near average frost, nor were any other electric appearances remarked. The regular and settled weather of this season is uncommon, yet there is more wind, than, under such circumstances, would be expected. The num- ber of clear days stand unequalled, but the cloudy days are consi* derable, (almost always the Cumulo Stratus'), a? also the pronor* tron of snowy days, and the frost most commonly slight. G6 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part lit. The principal winds by Table X. are mucb the same as last winter, only in addition there is an increase of the South West, in whrch hitherto there is but little wind bv the winters. CAtTHNlSS. LONDON. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. Thun dcr. Light- ning. 11 18 S9 1 l 1 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. East. West. 8 17 1 68 40 S. 2 a. 5 39 72 Ill Cldy. 63 Clouds 91 Clear. 30 -16 1 + I + 3 CHARACTER. Slight Excess, or Average East, find Slight Excess, or Average West : Average Rain, Mild, Calm, Clear. THE number of days rain is considerably under average, while the quantity is scarcely short of this sum, which shews the continued condensed state of the elements in consequence of the long preva- lence of the East wind in the winters, and the average rate upon the last and present summer ; but in particular this is owing to the East wind being what may be termed a true East and exceedingly steady, for at other times Excess East appears without great com- pression^of the weather, but in these cases, much, or most of the East wind is made up of North and South, and variables especially, \vhich have rather a contrary effect. Compare the detail of wind nnd weather of the current triple Excess East, with the triple Excess E-ist of 18192021. The very low rate of the force of the wind indicates that a change in this respect is at hand at the same time there were scarce any calms ; it could not be otherwise with an Excess of both winds upon one season. The sum of the force is low on account of a number of years preceding having a Deficiency of West, for the single Ex- cess West of lc:03, being combined with a single Deficiency East had but little effect of a contrary tendency : but the quadruple Ex- cess West beginning upon the next year, explains wLy the sum of Part ///.] SUMMER 1805, &C. 67 t!ie force is now so low, since it increases greatly under this long jot, it being a la\v of the weather that one extreme comes before another. Fro:n the rules observed, the indication for next winter is rain in proportion to the present Excess West, that is, a little above aver- age and chat next summer, would be dry, the temperature de- pending upon the quadruple beginning upon the winter or the sum- mer : the temperature of the winter is indicated mild, for an Excess West, and particularly a negative Excess like the present, in a mild summer, is followed by a mild winter, providing the summer of Ex- cuss West be not wet; but the mild character of the succeeding winter is more owing to the absence of Excess East upon this and preceding sun;meis. The Excess East upon both seasons of this year, indicates that the Enst wind is leaving the winters to revolve, or exceed upon the, summers, it also indicates a change of the weather not far distant. The steady, or unchangeable wind of this season, is more gene- rally spread upon the compass, and prevails considerably in the North E:ist and South West, having almost deserted the South East, to which it was prone under the lots of Excess East for many years before the commencement of the Register it is decreasing rapidly in the North West, a circumstance partly owing to a change of the mace of observation. WINTER 1806. S'ulh Year of the First Eighteen Year Period, E. E, Lust of Triple Excess East, and first of Quadruple Excess West. SCARBOROUGH. LONDON, EDINBURGH. B.ir. Ther. Great 'Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B Thun- der. Light- ning. 4fi IS SI 34 26 2 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. East. West. 18 40 78 51 31 28 GO 121 Cldy. 74 Clouds 86 Clear. 21 10 + 3 -8 + 16 GS HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. \_Pd)t III. CHARACTER. Deficiency East and Excess West ; above Average Wet, Mild, Clvudy. THE quantity of rain is above average, while the number of days on which rain fell, is in the same proportion under ; on this account the season is singular: the constitution of the weather is not aft'ected by a considerable Excess West in the first instance, because not only is its force at an under rate, but repeated seasons of Excess East has given such a firmness to the elements, that it is not easily broken, and again, the present Excess is but one of many in succession. Before the weather is broken under such circumstances, it is ne- cessary that a great Excess of summer East wind appears, which is the principal condition of change by the seasons; after which it is seen how the distribution of the rain is disposed, or altered, with every other phenomena of the weather. Hence it is the Deficiency East of the summer 1803, which caused the great comminution of the rain, rather than the Excess West. For the same reason the Excess West of the present season is not accompanied by cold : and as there is an Excess East for the current year, as well as an Excess West, consequently the former will fall upon the succeeding summer, which at the same time will feel the effect of the present Excess W'est in being slightly cold, but the weather regular, as the annual Excess East still continues. The thunder and other electric appearances have been very rare from the commencement of observations, owing to the great prevalence of the East wind in the winters : the present however having an Excess of the contrary wind, and being followed, or cros- sed by Excess East in the summer, will occasion frequent thunder on that season : these conditions, or state of the winds always evolv- ing the thunder in much greater frequency than under all the other states. The quantity of rain is always small or moderate in summer, after the first winter of Excess West, provided it be under annual Ex- cess, unless the winter of Excess West is preceded by a full Excess East on the previous summer : again, the quantity of rain is al- ways small or moderate on every summer of Excess East in the first instance ; hence putting both circumstances together, the sum of rain for the next summer must be very limited. The unchangeable winds of this season are spread very generally upon all the points of the compass, excepting the East South East, but chiefly prevails upon the South \Ve$t, and East by North ; at the same time that there is a sensible decline of the total of an- changeable winds. Part ///.] SUMMER 1806. SUMMER 1806. IDINBCHGH. LONDON. SUTHERLANDSHIRE. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B Thun- der. Light- ( ring. 55 4 12 43 1 9 7 1 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 11 44 1 59 25 s. 1 a. s 38 83 1OO Cldy. 50 Clouds 115 Clear. 19 25 1.6 + 12 8 CHARACTER. Great Excess East, and Deficiency West. Extraor* dinary Dnj t Temperate, and very regular Weather. THIS is the dryest of all the summers observed, and is owing to the long continuance of Excess East on the winters, and particularly the Deficiency East by the summers ; the slight Excess of the former being virtually Deficiency ; yet but for this slight Excess the pre- sent season would have been still dryer ; all first summers of Excess East are however more or less dry and this exceeds in drynosl from the nature of the lot of Excess Bast, it being the largest of its class, the other lots of Excess East made dry summers also, but i* an inferior degree, from the greater commixture of the winds East and West, on the previous years, whereas in the present instance the Excess West is just at the commencement, and the Excess East of the summer belongs to the triple Excess East, and the effect of this crossing, in the first instance, is merely the disengagement, ordisplay of the electric matter, there being great frequency of thunder and Aurora: Boreales the rain coming on the succeeding seasons. It is remarkable that the crossing of the different winds (though in a particular manner) should resemble in the effect, the crossing, or friction of the surface of other bodies. The state of each wind, last and present season, is opposite to that observed hitherto, for the seasons have exchanged winds, par- ticularly the East wind : the consequence of this shifting on all oc- casions, is a change in the weather; and in the present instance especially, all the conditions leading to change, or bad weather or in short, a storm, are complete before the commeneement, be- cause of the very highly condensed and favourable state of wind and 70 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par/ ///. weather for several years past, and hence is not easily, or readily broken : and fur the same reason, together with the quick return of a fresh lot of Excess East, the storm is found to he of shorter duration than common or in other words, it is shorter on account of the small extent of the lot of Deficiency East which succeeds the present lot of Excess now done. In subsequent times in the course of the current series of lots, when the state of the annual winds are different, or opposite, the change of weather is brought about with comparative ease, and .follow in rapid succession, as the lots of Excess Ea^t diminish in power and extent. A small quantity of rain is always spread upon a large surface, as witness the high rate of the short rains of the present season, when compared with the small sum, at the same time the number of days rain is much within the average. It will be observed ho\v much more a small quantity is extended in succeeding seasons, un- der a different state of wind the repetition of annual Deficiency East. Alter a great Excess East wind in summer, and under the last of a lot of annual Excess, the winter succeeding is always frost v, at least for two instances in succession, because after every summer of Excess East, the next summer is wet, and it is a constant rule in the weather, that a wet summer is followed by a more or less of a frosty winter : but as a long storm succeeds every such Excess by suinruer, particularly when the summer Excess is followed by annual Deficiency, as in the present instance, the frost is never con- tinuous, nop long without interruption, but is continually alternating with fresh, from the unusual commotion and comminution of the ek'~ pients ; continued frost only happening in regular weather, espe- cially after a wet summer in a mild period, or under annual EX;T?S East, when the elements of the weather are in a general state of compression, regular and more settled. To the same purport is the rather freqqent Aurora: Bore-ales in the autumnal months, and the absence of October faggs. The rule that after an extreme comes an average, is applicable to the present season, it being an extreme dry, but the winters all incline to dry alter every great Excess East in summer: on the con- trary, the succeeding summer will be an extreme wet ami cold, which last however will terminate by the summers, with the next summer, or 1S07, because it made its appearance in the current, for no more than two cold summers are together, though properly the temperature of the present is al average. Had the temperature of the present season, which is but moderately low, or at a mean rate of the summers, been observed under other circumstances of wind and weather, it would have a different signification, there being reason to believe, that after much deterioration of the weather, such as happen especially under and after the quadruples of Deficien- cy, the temperature is low by the average for several summers in suc- cession but in these cases other alleviating conditions are observed which qualify the cold: such as much sun and compressed weather. SUMMER 1803, &C. -71 Under the triple Excess East which has now terminated, are three seasons of uncommon description the extremes of wet and dry in the winters, and of dry in the summers, the last being naturally to be expected after the previous extremes in the winters ; for all cir- cumstance* of weather revolve from winter to summer the imme- diate sign of the extreme dry appears in the double, or pair of averages by the summers, which precede. And no other equal extremes of wet or dry have been observed in a whole course of the series of the lots of the winds ; but botli wet and dry seasons have occurred in this period, in which the effect has been more severe- ly felt. The rate of unchangeable winds is much on the decline this sea- son, at the same time it is very generally spread upon all the points of the compass, and no particular prevalence on any: this spread- ing of the wind must doubtless have some meaning, and the proba- ble one is, that, the change or storm following may be kept within reasonable bounds. WINTER 180T. Seventh year of the Eighteen Year Period. D. E. First of Double Deficiency East, and second of Quadruple Excess West. SUIHEKLAMJSHJRE. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modi Rains Short Rains. Days Snow. A.B. Thun- der. Light- i ning. | 2 Snow. A. B. Tauu- der. Light- ning. 29 t 7 36 14 27 56 47 8 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 49 32 2 97 55 74 44 55 125 Cldy. 72 Clouds: Clear. , . 98 ! 12 + 7 -1-14 13 -{- 20 CHARACTER Great Deficiency East, and Great Excess West, Wet, Frosty, Very Snowy, Great Increase of Gales, Very Windy, Cloudy. THE northern lights, though commonly accompanying the frost, are here declining, probably from the continuance of Excess West, and that mildness is at hand : from this, and the non-appearance of the other electric signs, a dry mild summer might be indicated ; but this has been determined by the annual wind, and in particular, by the low rate of the East last summer, together with the small Excess West, and by the rule which limits the cold to two summers at a time, or rather to one summer under the double Deficiency East. It has been stated that three wet seasons in succession seldom Part 1/7.1 WINTER 1808, &C. 77 happens, at least if it could, the present state of the wind affords the very best opportunity, the West being in Excess for three win- ters running, during after and again under a great Excess East : it will soon appear that it was as near affecting this as possible, and that it brought rain enough, but the disposition is in such a manner as to leave the rule for the present quite determined. This is the first season on which there is an unchangeable wind upon all the points of the compass, or at least on all those contained in the Table. The bulk of these winds is from the South West to the North West inclusive, and considerable in the South East, tak- ing to account the low rate of the East wind, which is probably the principal cause of the great degree of cloudiness prevailing : the South winds being chiefly distinguished on this account, as the North is for the contrary. The number of windy day* is singularly low, considering the high rate of the gales which is analogous to the few short rains of winter 180l>, when the great rains were so numerous and the short the contrary. None of the high winds however could b.ear a com- parison with the Christmas gale of the last winter, so that some re- duction of the force, by single gales, takes place, as the number in- creases. The number of snowy days is uncommonly high, or rather un- exampled, and the reason can only be found in the circumstance, that the sum of rain is without a paralel on any frosty winter ob- served for even a mild winter, with a great quantity of rain, as 180*, much exceeds the ordinary rate of snow. It may be stated here that the rate of the winds, though indi- cating drought or wet, does not shew the exact quantity of the rain, this being found rather from the rules dedqcted from Table XII. of the General View. SUMMER 1808 Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. no . ,s 24 50 4 8 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. 54 WE'"- 32 45 77 35 48 Cldy. 20 Clouds 146 Clear. 18 7 6 14 ill 78 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Pflrf III. CHARACTER. Great Deficiency East, and Great Excess West. Dry, Mild, Windy, Clear, Regular. THERE appears no frost in the summer or autumn parts of this season, which is the first instance of the kind, whereas the preced- ing summer had the most frequent frosts hitherto, which looks as if this element had been exhausted for the present ; but if certain states of the wind occasion more or less frost, certain other states might occasion a total absence of this phenomena ; since it is not so uniform in appearance as the wind and rain. There was not only an absence of the frost, but the heats towards the latter end of the gumraer months in England were very powerful, especially from the 9th to 19th July, in which time the Thermometer ranged in the shade from 80 to upwards of 90. Observations upon the tempera- ture, by the Thermometer, were not committed to the Register this season. This summer in many respects resembled the first in the list, ex- cepting in the high winds, and consequent form of the clouds, it is something dryer as to the mere sum of rain, but the absorbing power of the air did not appear nearly equal, notwithstanding the almost continual wind, and the less frequent rains, and that the East wind is of a higher rate than in the season alluded to ; but the increase of the variables, and the Excess wind being West, may be considered as the principal cause of the difference observed. Though a general clearness prevailed, the number of clear days is moderate on account of the blowing wind, which dissipated the clouds, as may be seen by the high number of day? with clouds, while the number of cloudy days is the lowest in the list. The rains also appear rather comminuted, considering the limited quantity of the season, and from the same cau*e : yet though the sum of wind and rain of this season and 1803 be nearly similar or equal, the comminution is inferior on the present, because of the previous consolidation of the weather, whereas before the 1803, it was a pre- vious comminution, the quadruple Deficiency almost immediately preceding. As the Excess West has now decidedly left the winters for the summers, and as next year is Excess East, it being the first of a double Excess* and there being an Excess West at the same time, it becomes evident that the succeeding winter will have Excess East : and as, the present great Excess West indicates another wet winter, that season will have considerable resemblance to the winter of 1801-, which followed the single Excess West, making allowance for the previous winter being wet; for the other signs of an equal fall of rain are wanting, viz. the multitude of short rains, Aurorcg Borea- es, &c. the total absence of this last may however in part be owing /o the present season having been observed in the south of Eng- landother distinctions remain to be stated, and are these, that the present Excess Weal is but one of a lot ; and the Excess East sue- Part ///.] SUMMER 1803. 79 ceeding is weaker, being only part of a double Excess, all which circumstances shew a less quantity of rain next winter compared with winter ISO*. The next winter is indicated as mild, from the great Excess West, combined with the absence of Aurora; Borcales and October foggs, and the Excess East of that season, together with much rain ; there being rarely much frost, with a great quantity of rain and snow. The summers with prevailing West wind, give a dry summer 1 on the next, and until the third instance in succession, after which it is neither dry nor wet, but average the present Excess being only the second in succession, next summer will be both dry and mild, and this order will continue until after a great Excess East on these seasons. It appears that when the East wind prevails in the same manner upon a number of summers in succession, as under the quadruple Deficiency, the same order of dry and average winters, and of wet summers follow; which is in other words, the weather of the qua- druple Excess coming upon the quadruple Deficiency, but reversed as to season, temperature, and the state of wind. The Excess West in both seasons of this year, as well as the last, must have some signification in the weather, and the obvious one \s to restore mild, moderate, and regular weather, with the least delay. The unchangeable wind of this and two preceding summers, is much at the same rate, the present having the greatest quantity of South, South South West, and South West of any summer in the list. See Table of unchangeable winds. Though the Excess West of the season is very great, the varia- bles from East to West, and from West to East, are at the same rate as last summer, which is rather remarkable. Sec Tables VIII. and IX. of the variables. 80 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER; Part ///.] WINTER 1809. Ninth Year of the Eighteen Year Period. E. E. First of .Double Excess East* and last of Quadruple Excess West. LONDOX. DOTR. Bar. Ther. Great Rains Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B. Thun- der. Light ning. 29,2 42 18 25 46 24 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. 89 Amount Rain Frost. Var. EAST. WEST 1 64 25 1 57 24 30 85 96 Cldy. 68 Clouds 106 Clear. 7 + 1 + 9 36 + 17 10 CHARACTER. -Great DefidencifUst^. and Great Excess Mild, Windy* Clear, Regular. IT does not appear evident why the cloudy character of the foregoing winter should exceed the present, which has still more rain and blowing wind, together with a much greater rate of the TJast wind, at the same time that the rain is in a state of greater compression. The same difference is observed of the pair of dry winters of 1816 i7, the first being more cloudy than the last, while the sum of wind and state of the rain is very nearly the same in each : compare the pairs of wet and dry seasons by the Tables. The present winter had the greatest sum of rain next to that of 1804> the state of the winds is similar, but the sum of East is infe- rior in proportion to the sum of rain, and the strength of the lot of Excess East: and as last winter, and the current are both wet, the next will be on the dry side, whatever be the state of the winds. Though the quantity of rain is greatly in Excess, there is only one day of rain above the average, which shews that the season has no connection whatever with a storm, it being totally unlike the Part 7/7.3 SUMMER 1809. 81 two former winters, and that the elements Began immediately to condense with the first appearance of Excess East \vrnd, and the commencement of the mild period; and the condensation is increas- ing as it were in the teeth of the high winds, because these were as much East as West. This sudden return of very regular weather is a consequence of the storm of the two last years being -the first change in the Eighteen year period ; but regularity is not so quickly restored when the storms are repeated in a comparatively short time ; as will appear in the sequel. It is a curious circumstance that the compression of the elements begins with the beginning of the season of Excess East, (and the same of the comminution under Deficiency) whereas the actual Excess of the wind does not appear of course till towards the con- elusion, so that the first wind of a season is of the same nature with the last ; in consequence of which rule, the state of the wind for a season may be known, as soon as the effect, or tlie nature of the weather is observed, which is an advantage when it may be uncer* tain whether the wind be Excess or Deficiency of either by the season, at least this may happen to be doubtful at times, until a re- volution of the Cycle is observed} and possibly at all times. A comparison may be made between the present high rate of gales, and the tides of the ocean the greatest sum of the force is not when there is most West wind, but some time after, as in the present season, which is one of Deficiency West, and the first af- ter Excess; and again, the force is no ways augmented on the first appearance of Excess West, but some time after: in like manner the highest tides are not when the operating cause is most power- ful, but some time after, &c. for reasons which are well understood- the general principles of nature are always the same. This year is the last of the quadruple Excess, and the sum of the force of the wind has been 'rapidly increasing through the lot ; by the next year, which is one of Deficiency West, it will appear how much the sum of the force is reduced, though still considerably above the levej of low rate, which is just such a result as might naturally be expected from one year of Deficiency, preceded and followed by such large lots of Excess. The indications are a great Excess East in winter is followed by a mild and dry summer. The absent signs, electric appear- ances, give the same result. As the state of wind for the year is an Excess of both East and West, the last must be in Excess upon the summer, as the first is in Excess upon the current season, which shews that another change of the weather is not immediately at hand, since this is always brought, about by Excess East in the summer : hence, the weather of eighteen months is determined, because the following season having E\cess West, must be succeeded by one more year certain of regular weather. The crossing of the wind, that is, the la?t year is Deficiency East, while the present is Excess, appears to be the cause or rule L 82 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part III. for the Excess rain of this winter, since every Deficiency and Ex- cess East make a wet or a frosty winter under the Excess, in the first instance; and yet none of these are connected with a storm, or at least a. storm with cold summers : on the other hand, every Excess and Deficiency East make a wet summer under the Deficiency, (especially if there be more than one year of Deficiency at a time) which is always in a storm with cold summers. There are excep- tions under the single Excess East, which depend upon its position as coming iai'r.ediately after Excess or Deficiency West, for this Jut ij twice preceded hi a revolution of the Cycle by two of a triple Deficiency West, which must alter the nature of the weather and Sum of rain* under and after these singles. The doable Excess East is twice preceded successively by a single Deficiency West in the same time, or in a revolution . but the triple Excess East, is al.vays preceded by Excess West, and as the effect of this position, or conjunction, is a more or less wet winter on the first year of Excess East, it may be concluded as certain, that a contrary state is followed by a comparatively dry winter on the first year of Excess East, and particularly under the singles of Excess stated, as more fully explained in the article, * Machinery of the Winds.' There is observed a decline in the sum of rain of these first winters, as may be seen in the tables. On the winter of the first year of the first triple Excess East, and preceded by Excess West, the sum is 73; on the winter of the first year of the first double Excess East, (the current) and preceded by Excess West, the sum is 57; on the winter of the first single Excess East, and preceded by Excess West, the sum of rain is 47 all these winters had Excess East, but the first winter of the second triple Excess East is Deficiency, yet being preceded by Excess West the sum of rain is slightly above average the first winter of Excess East, under this last lot, is preced- ed by Deficiency West, and accordingly, the sum of rain is only 2C : so that while the general conditions of wind are similar, the rate of rain is above, or at least an average, being at the last rate under tho weakest lot of the wind : and the under average comes when the conditions are contrary, or Deficiency West, and the Excess East on the second year of the lot, and otherwise of an imperfect na- ture See the account of winter \b c 20. The Excess East of this season, being under and after a long course ot Excess West, has in conseque.nce an almost overwhelming quantity of hith winds: in the same manner, the single Exct-s-s Lust, being after a very long course of Excess West, though actually under the first of a lot of Deficiency West, is aiso a windv season, that is,- the winter of the single Excess. The great bulk of the unchangeable wind of this season is from the East South East, to North, but like the former winter, it is spread upon all the points of the compass> which are the only in- stances of the kind by the winters, and the more remarkable, by 7/7. WINTER 1809, &C. one Jiaving a great Excess West, and the other a great Excess East ! and at the same time there is a considerable decrease in the mmiler of unchangeable winds by Table X, while by Table \ 1H the variables are but few ! SUMMER 1809. Bar. 293 Ther. Great Rains. 5 Modt. Rains. ~ Short Rains. 46 Oct. Fo, gs. 4 A. B. Thun- der Light- ring. 58^ 8 9 Gales. 42 Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 122 27 72 34 s. a. 2 33 62 Cldy. 28 Cloud;- 133 Clear. ~23 12 7 9 + 14 CHARACTER. Deficiency East, Excess IVest.- Windy, Clear, Regular, -Dry, Mild, Very HERE the compresssion is still increasing these two summers though under Excess West, and great increase of gales, because of the increase of the East wind from winter 1808. The West wind having been now three summers running in Excess, and the year now expired with the present season being the last of the quadruple Excess, and the next year, the last of the double Excess East; consequently the succeeding summer will have Excess East, for there is one sum- mer of Excess East at least, under every lot of this wind ; it will therefore bring on another change or storm, the last Excess East being upon the last summer of the lot and this change coming so quick after the former, there being only three mild summers inter- vening, including the next, must naturally have an effect upon the storm, which consequently should be of a more moderate character : hence the weather may be foreseen to the end of summer 1812, should the storm continue for two years, which is to be expected from the long lot of Deficiency East, (the triple) succeeding: and the nature of the weather may be known further, as there must come a regular course of mild seasons after the storm or in short, the alternation of the lots of Excess and Deficiency determines the weather of all times. i.2 8t HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part HI. All the indications given by the present season are favourable, excepting our foggy days in October, which portend some consi- derable frost. The thunder and lightning were frequent and severe this season, which is the more remarkable from the preceding winter having Ex- cess East, and that the Excess West is the last of a long lot : but in England, where the season was observed, the thunder is always more frequent than in Scotland. The Aurora: Boreales do not ap- pear by the Table, but this probably, and the other certainly arises iram the latitude of the place of observation. The third Excess of any of the winds in succession, upon one of the seasons, has been stated as having a contrary effect Jo that of the first and second, consequently the succeeding winter will lean to dry: this is made out by another rule of the weather, which is, that when there are two seasons wet in succession, if the average rate do not precede, it will follow; therefore winter 1807 being average, next winter will be dry for the same reason the two dry summers, now over, having been preceded by a very wet season, (summer 1807) the succeeding summer will be an average; for two wet or two dry seasons together, either winter or summer, are always preceded or followed by an average : but no very dry season is to be expected for a long time to come, the winds being so tho- roughly mixed the lots of Excess East being small, and the suc- ceeding lots of Excess West being in the same state. This season shews more clear days than any in the list of sum- mers, (1805 excepted) yet the cloudy day? are few, but in the ge- neral run of the seasons and years of the first Eighteen year pe- riod, there is a decrease of both, while the days partly cloudy, and partly clear, are consequently much on the increase See the Ta- |)le of cloudy, &c. days. The number of gales and high winds exceed that of any other summer in the list, while the windy days are nearly the fewest : this state is owing to the continued Excess West wind. The frost has just made its appearance in the autumn, and may be expected to Continue more or Jess upon the summer season until the next crisis. There are no calms in this summer, (nor in the last), owing ta the present year having to furnish an Excess of both East and West wind. The unchangeable winds are spread upon all points, one only excepted, which is the North North East ; in the general sum is a slight increase from the last summer, the wind being necessarily more steady when there is Excess of both winds upon one year, find especially when this is the case upon one season, as on the sum-- mer 1805, &c. Part ///.] WINTER 1810. WINTER 1810. Tenth Year of the Eighteen Year Period. E. D. Last of Double Excess East, and Single Deficiency West. SUTHERLA,"'DSH1RE. LONDON. DOVER. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Q Days A. B. Snow. | Thun- Light- der. ning. 292 36? 9 25 51 24 2 Gales. Windy. Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 34 24 11 85 45 59 43 71 99 Cloudy 38 Clouds 125 Clear. 18 3 3 1 + 3 6 CHARACTER. Slight Excess East, and Slight Deficiency Under Average Rain, and near or Average Frost ; Windy. THIS season is near a general average ef all the phenomena : the Deficiency West of the year and season has however occasioned more calms than have been observed on any winter hitherto : the high winds are nevertheless above the average which is natural, as one year of Deficiency, or the first of any lot of Deficiency West, excepting that coming after a Single Excess, do not reduce the wind at once ; nor do the first Excess much increase the force, or frequency of high winds, these processes being somewhat gradual. The average of the temperature is stated as doubtful, observa- tions on this head having been made only upon the first four months of the season ; the mild character is however distinct, the frost being rather below average, and the number of days snow moderate. The effect of the second year of Excess East, and single Defi- ciency West, is but moderate, because this state of the wind is after four years of Excess West, the rate of rain for the year being aver- age, fpr every long lot of the wind produces the greatest effect upon the first years, as happens under the shortest. The unchangeable winds are more even'y spread upon the com- pass than any other winter, the North North East excepted, hav- ing none. The number of cloudy days is the lowest hitherto, that is to 1821, while the clear days are considerable, HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. I Part HI. SUMMER 1810. HOVER. EDINBURGH. bar. ,, GieatjMoclt. ' Rains.) Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. J'lain- der. L,ight- oirig. 295 13 I 18 40 7 1 ! 4 2 Gales, Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain Frost Van EAST. WEST. 22 18 5 71 43 s. a. 5 26 85 94 Cldy. 32 Clouds 134 Clear. 18 i IS ^_^ Q + 14 11 CHARACTER. Great Excess East, and Deficiency West; Average Rain, Mild. IF the winter previous had a little leaning to change, Mie inten- tion this season is p;ist doubt, the East wind being in Excess, in the same manner, but to a greater amount than in summer ISOt'j, which was thq preparative to the first storm of the current Eighteen year period. The number of Great Rains is equal to the notable summer of 1807, an>l superior to all the other aummers, and considering the few short rains, with the limited number of days on which rain fell, the condensation of the elements is at a high rate and though the clear days of the year are above the medium, the clouds continue in the same broken state as left by the storm, or change of 1807. The indications are a storm, which commences with the ensu- ing season ; but as the cold did not appear sensible on the present. summer, as in 1806, it may be inferred, that the storm and cold would set out together, and particularly so, since the considerable, or rathe rfrequent foggs of October, indicates a frosty character for the ensuing winter. The consequence of the cold and storm setting out together must have a favourable tendency, as both are observed to be moderate throughout in consequence of this mode of combi- nation ; for when the conjunction is different, or one begins before the other, there is a sort of extremity at the point of contact, as for examples, the summer of 1807, and that of 181(5. The state of wind which leads to these storms, or changes, is always in a dry summer, which is a providential arrangement, for had the first Excess East of summer been accompanied by much Part III.'] SUMMER 1810, &C. rain, the frost of the succeeding winter would have been intolera- ble ; but as this could not happen under a great commotion of the elements, it is therefore so ordered, that as few of the conditions leading to severe weather appear together as possible ; for a dry summer indicates a mild winter, but with Excess East, it indicates frost, and when a summer is wet, it seldom has Excess East, or if so, it is after a preceding Excels East, when the repetition is less effectual nevertheless the frast which succeeds a wet summer is (he hardest and most continuous. An Excess East upon both seasons of the current year is observ- ed, which is the preparative to the succeeding change of the weather. In the unchangeable winds the North East and South West greatly prevail, and about these points: in the South South East, and North North West, on the contrary, are scarce any winds. WINTER 1811. Eleventh Year of the Eighteen Year Period, D. E. First of Triple Deficiency East, and first of Triple Excess West. ZDISBCBCH. SCTHKRLANHSHIRF. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt Rains Short Rains. Days Snow. A a Thuii- A ' B ' der. Light- ning. 29,2 11 | 22 64 31 3 2 3 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 36 23 7 97 49 70 45 72 + * 102 Cldy. Clouds Clear. 135 11 + 9 + 1 + 10 3 CHARACTER.: Slight Excess East, and Slight Deficiency West : Average Rain, Snoivy, Frosty, \\indii. Tins storm coming so quickly after the former, the comminution of the elements is consequently much increased, for the number of the short rains of the present seasou considerably exceeds those of ffc HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part 111. winter 1807, on which commenced the former storm : this shews that the constitution of the weather is not now so strong, the inter- val of mild weather being but short, and that the present change would be of longer duration this part of the subject is treated of more at large on the succeeding change or storm. The thunder took place in December, and was particularly severe and general, and the other electric appearances alarming 1 the signs are always significant and numerous, taken in detail, when great changes are about to commence, never coming by surprise the present formidable preparations may be said to have a reference to the quick return of this change after the former. The rather favourable state of the wind, a negative Excess East, and Deficiency West, argues that however wet the ensuing summer, it would not exceed in cold, nor equal that of 1807 in severity, for a *mall Excess East in winter, even in a storm, tends to meliorate the temperature of the succeeding summer : the circumstance how- ever is very rare, but the storm commencing with Excess of frost, the following season should be slightly cold, especially as it is under the first Deficiency East by the year. The Excess East and Deficiency West of this winter is remark- able, and is occasioned by the sudden return of the triple Excess West, after the quadruple, only one Deficiency intervening, which is the least of the lots : hence it became necessary to put off the operation of this new lot of Excess West as far as possible to the next summer. All these circumstances tend to one common point the moderation of the cold, and force of the wind in this change : for the Excess West of next summer is so sudden a return of the same state of wind of the previous summers, which were mild, that it cannot exceed in cold, a greater interval of rest of the winds being necessary to produce much cold, or in other words, a longer interval of mild regular weather and the same arguments apply as to the force of the wind, which is rendered much less by the ar- rangement stated. See the account of the quadruple Excess West under the article, ' Force of the Wind,' in the General View. The change of the wind by the System is complete this year, that is, there is a change in both the East and the West wind, but the amount is so small that the effect must be in proportion : as the present season is Excess East and Deficiency West, contrary to the sign for the year, the summer therefore must have the Excess West and Deficiency East, which completes, or implements the change, and with this advantage, that the summer succeeding must be dry, and the effect of the storm in consequence limited. As however the triple Excess W T est which begins with the current year, should operate upon the next winter, or winter of the second year of the triple, it will make the summer after, that is, 181^, still colder than that succeeding the present season, because the first winter of Ex- cess West which comes in course of the storm, increases the cold, which is the constant rule. But it is so contrived, by the favoura- Part 7/7.] SUMMER 1805, &C. ble wind at the commencement of the storm, and the small amount of the annual Excess and Deficiency of the first year, (the current) together with the cold and storm having set out simultaneously, that the had or unfavourable sit^ns are greatly qualified, and a conse- quent moderation in the change. The sum of unchangeable wind is the lowest as yet, by the win- ters ; they are evenly spread upon all the points, excepting the NNW. as last winter the only vacant space is the NNE. SUMMER 1811. IDIXBL'HQH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. L c |Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 293 53 9 36 60 5 4 3 Gales. Windy jCalms. Days Rain. \mount Rain. Frost. Var. East. West. 37 Cldy. 45 44 3 105 55 s. - a. 5 47 62 119 Clouds! Clear. 130 ! 9 ~*~ -{- 14 9 + n CHARACTER. Deficiency East, and Excess IVat. Very Wet, Cold t Windy, Cloudy. THIS summer is equally wet with the 1807, but from the favour- able wind, last and present season, it was scarcely colder than what might be said to be unavoidable with so much rain, it being more than probable that an equal quantity of rain never falls upon a mild summer, though the greatest quantity is always upon a mild winter. The number of days on which rain fell is but just exceeded on the notable summer of 1816, yet the sum of the present is consider- ably greater. The number of Gales and Windy days are both high, which is the combined effect of the quadruple and triple Excess, for the present increase of the Windy days is owing to the triple, and the frequent Gales is chiefly the continued effect of the quadruple ; some few of these were very powerful, especially on the 13th of October. In September the weather of the first three weeks was of the finest description possible ; there is almost always somi? regular dry fine weather in every wet season, excepting the 90 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. \_Part III. weather of some of the summers under the .quadruple Deficiency East.* The indications are every wet summer is followed by a frosty winter: and five foggy days in October, an additional indication to the same purpose ; but the slenderness of the crossing of the winds and the absence of Aurora Boreales qualify the foregoing and more especially the combination of the cold and storm on the firat year, moderates the character of the change throughout. The winds of the present sfeason are crossed every way, first iii being preceded direct by an Excess East, though but small, and relatively or respectively by a great Excess East previous summer, and hence the full complement of rain. As no winter in, a storm ever much exceeds in the quantity of rain, for much rain, or even much snow, make a mild winter of ne- cessity, at least under the present course of the winds, the Excess West of this summer which is but moderate, will not have much effect upon the winter, for this only happens when the Excess West of summer is followed by Excess East of winter, and in proportion to each when the last is under annual Excess : in the present case it is quite the reverse, the whole lot of Excess West, now current, being opposed by Deficiency East, on which accobnt there is a ne- gative Excess East on the first winter of the lot but the Excess West of the present season, though moderate, will make a wet win- ter of course, for in addition to all these reasons, it is the first Ex- cess of a lot, and upon the summer. The thunder was very violent this season though not very fre- quent, the cause of which is not very evident, unless it be that stated, the Excess being the first of a lot. This is the third wet year by the annual rate, *it\a contrary state of the East wind to that of the last wet year< the 1807, it being now Excess East in winter and Deficiency in summer, while the rain is disposed exactly in the same manner : the distribution of the suc- ceeding wet year will be found different from any of the former. The cloudiness of the present season is considerable, though the number of cloudy days is but moderate : the clear days are decreasing rapidly from the increased comminution of the clouds and other elements, brought about by the repeated storms and con- tinuance of high winds, the decrease of the lots of Excess East, and increase of the lots of Deficiency East. At this rate it will be long ere weather resembling the first years observed appears again and it is mosi; probable that no equal compression and co.nmimltion occurs in any other portion of the System, for in these the lots are dift'er- ently'disposed, and more favourable to an equality of the compres- sion : in fact it is the great compression of the first yesrs observed, which is the cause of the great comminution which followed, of * Yet the harvest of the present season was much damaged by the previous and succeeding raing, together with the frequent high winds. Part ///.] SUMMED 1811, &C. which more in explanation at the next change or storm, and the remainder of the System is upon the same principle. It is probable that the sum of rain this season i> a little higher than it would have been, were observations made about the usual level, it was registered at PENNYCUICK, eleven miles south of EDINBURGH, which is upwards of 500 feet aboye the coast side, and there is no doubt more rain falls upon the higher grounds than upon the lower, each place having its own average according to the altitude, &c. The temperature of the first summer of every storm, is increas- ing in proportion to the increase of the lots of Deficiency East, so that the first summer of the quadruple is actually a fine mild season viz summer 1807, temperature 49. The temperature of summer 1811 is at 53 ; and that of 1815 is at 57 ; so that there is a singu- lar and regular increase of the temperature of every first summer of each storm in the period of Eighteen, which will probably serve to point out in after times, the rate and proportion of the tetn a- ture of the first summer of every lot qf Deficiency East, and the same comparison of the other years may detect the temperature of these also. The unchangeable winds are very generally spread upon all the points, but much more frequent about the South West, the pre- ponderance of the East wind is about East by North. ^WINTER 1812. liat/th Year of the Eighteen Year Period. D, B, Second of Triple Deficiency East, and second of Triple Excess West. EDINBURGH. Bar. Then Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B Thun- der. Light- ning. 233 37 14 23 51 31 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. East. W 44 28 3 88 51 72 41 46 133 Cldy. 28 Clouds 153 Clear. 1 = + 3 -f 12 22 -f- 28 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par/ CHARACTER Very Great Deficiency East, and Very Great Excess IVcrt ; Above Average JVtt, Sno.n-y, Frosty, Windy , Cloudy. THIS winter has every character of the storm, excepting the com- minution of the rain, which is at an average, a circumstance not easily accounted for, unless it be the consequence of the Excess East of the three preceding winters, but in the degree it is a singu- lar exception, particularly from the great Excess West of the sea- son these however have been observed not to operate in the first instance, but according to the previous state, thus, the first winter of Excess under the quadruple, had short rains 34; first winter of Excess under the triple Excess West, had short rains 51 ; and the first winter of Excess West under the double Excess West, had short rains GO; so that the strength and order of succession of the Jots determine the comminution of the first winter of Excess \Yes$ of each lot.* The entire absence of electric phenomena indicate an ensuing dry summer ; it is singular that so many signs of wet and dry should constantly appear ; this result has been obtained by the state of wind last summer, and the present Excess \Vest is to the same pur- port ; for all first Excess West by winters under annual Excess, are followed by a dry summer, and at most by an average, as appears from the preceding and subsequent seasons. As last summer has been slightly cold, the succeeding, being after a first Excess West by winters, will be still colder, and the state of the wind of that season will determine the weather of the summer succeeding. The average condensation of the current season is remarkable : it appears that all changes which begin in the summer, are always of a favourable and temperate kind thus, the present storm was pre- ceded by the usual signs, but the crowing of the winds began with the summer, the first Excess of the triple Excess being on that sea- son, (last summer) an arrangement which, with any other previous signs, would insure mild and regular weather. The comminution of the clouds, on the other hand, is very great this saeson, and the number of clear days is the lowest in the list of winters. It seems that the first winter of Deficiency East is always mode- rately wet, independent of the state of wind by the summers, or by the year. * The effect of the first Excess West of winter is equally regular riz. First winter of Excess under the quadruple, followed by rain in summer 25. First win- ter of Excess under the triple, followed by rain in summer 56. First \vii.ter of Excess under the double Excess, followed by rain in summer 42 ; so that the ^rength and order of succession, with the intervals between each. &c. determines 4je (juautity of rain on the following summer. fart ///.] WINTER 1812, &C. 93 The bulk of unchangeable winds is about the West by South, and the North East, there being however several points in the East with- out any wind : the entire and variables by Table VIII. being nearly the same as last winter. SUMMER 1812. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 291 52 2 23 66 3 1 4 1 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 36 31 1 91 36 S "" ~ a. 1 67 85 98 Cldy. 25 Cioudt 158 Clear. 1 + 7 5 + J4 10 CHARACTER Great Excess East, and Deficiency West ; Dry, Cold, WinJi/y Cloudy. THUS appears fulfilled all the indications : the great number of short rains s:iew the terminating storm, these being most numerous at the beginning and at the e,nd of every change. The temperature is one degree lower than last summer, and only one degree higher than the ever memorable summer of 1816, but the place of observation of the present season is full two degrees colder than that in which the other was observed, (PERTH) espe- cially in winter ; consequently the summer of 1816, at EDINBURGH, would give 49 as the temperature. These seasons resemble each other in many respects, but the quantity of rain being greatly less on the present season, made, it may be said, every difference in the world.* The Excess of East wind on the present season, though at the end of a storm, is of a portentous appearance, and shews that a pro- * It deserves to be remarked, that the crops of this season, though late, were by much the best since the commencement of the register, which shews that a mo- derately cold summer with frequent short rains, nd but few great or moderate, is much more favourable to corn, than a warm sultry summer with a still greater number of short rains, such as was the case in summer 1S05, in which also the sum of rain is something greater, yet the crops of that beaten were defective atjd, tinted. 94 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part III. pensity to wet summers is on the increase ; there will therefore foU low a wet summer on the next year, with thunder on the interven- ing winter : how this change may be qualified by the wet season fal- ling in a mild period, (which is a new circumstance as yet,) will be presently seen, for as there has been now two frosty winters, and two cold summers in succession, the storm must be at an end, conse- quently next winter will be mild, notwithstanding of the present Kxcess East, because the Excess is uqder annual Deficiency: had the high rate of this wind been under any other than the circum- stances detailed, it would insure a frosty winter. The description of the clouds in the Register during this storm, and the season now terminated in particular, has been a most dif- ficult task, from the multiplicity, order, altitude, quantity, &c. tvtr varying. owing no doubt to the very variable winds, and other par- ticulars of the season; whereas in regular weather, or mild periods, the same clouds with the same disposition and character, remained with very little change for many days, and the phenomena con- sequently to be described, always few : yet every season of the Cycie, and probably of all times, have a peculiar arrangement of the clouds, &.c. each differing from the other continually. The constitution of the weather, as it may well be termed, since it and all things connected with this department, are constructed upon the same uniform general principles, received a shock in this storm, from which it recovered but in a moderate degree in the succeeding mild course, the grand catastrophe taking place in ihe last storm, or change of the current Eighteen year period. The storms, cold, Excess West, gales &c. having assailed the weather of late years, without any intermission of the one or the other : in the succeeding change it is seen how far more powerful some, or most oJ' these prin- ciples operated ; a few indeed, such as the gales, and Excess West, being moderated, as otherwise the result would have been fatal. Though there has been no change by the annual rate of the wind this year and the preceding, there appears nevertheless a great change by the seasons, the last winter having an unprecedented Excess West, and the summer the same of the East, an expedient, as it may be said, which will not appear surprising, when the small amount of the annual Deficiency East ai.d Excess West is consi- dered, because this arrangement Only could accomplish the result due upon the previous signs or state of the wind. The fruitfulness of expedients in the weather is truly surprising, and it never rests ! The very high rate of the variable days wind this season is truly astonishing, more particularly so, as the winter and summer of the tery next year are almost of the lowest rate of variables of any in the whole period of weather observed. Something corresponding is observed in the Table of unchange- able winds, in which the variables are the highest of any season to this date, but considerably higher rates occur in subsequent years are unchangeable winds in all parts of the compass this season, Part ///.] SUMMER 1812, &G. excepting the West, but principally abound in the South West, and North East. The regularity of the seasons, in a certain sense, correspond with the rate of the variables by both Tables. WINTER 1813. Thiilccnth Year of the Eighteen Year Period. D. E. Last of Triple Deficiency East, and last of Trip! Excess West* GLASGOW. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B. Tnun- der. Ligru- ning. 294 8 | 28 46 25 l 1 1 Gales. Windy; Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST 49 34 2 82 44 49 16 64 115 Cldy. 46 Clouds 138 dear. _ 6 4 11 4 + 10 CHARACTER. Deficiency East, and Excess West; Dry, Mild, Windy. A MOST remarkable rise of the Barometer took place in the month of December, much above any previous altitude observed ; this might be taken as a sign of the elements having recovered from the effects of the storm ; but however this be, the circumstance is deserving of notice, as a similar instance appears at the termination of the succeeding storm, and at the same time of winter. The present winter being dry, and after a single, or first summer of Excess East, agreeable to the rules, (which also determines that the last summer of every lot of Deficiency East, when opposed by last of Excess West, is Deficiency, so that the succeeding sum- mer is Excess West of course,) the next summer therefore should be wet, and being in a mild course, the sum of rain cannot much exceed the average, especially as the Excess East of last summer, 96 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. \Pari III. which is the sign, is a negative Excess, being under annual Deficien- cy, and that an extreme wet season has been already under the same lot of the wind the summer 1811. The regularity of the wind this season, and also on the next, is truly unaccountable, and no :ess surprising. It might be argued that the crisis of the weather of 1816 17, is rendered of a comparatively moderate character by this arrangement ; the weather at the same time is no less regular, with the exception of frequent high winds on the present season, but at a low rate on the summer. The unchangeable wind is equally extraordinary, there being no less than 4*3 days in the South West alone, which is a sum without example ; it is at the same time prevalent in the North East, and East by North, but several points are vacant. PLYMOUTH. DARTMOOR. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs . n 1'hun- Lignt- Xi .1J* i * ! der. ; mug. 4 37 50 15 8 1 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. . Amount Rain. Frost Var. EAST. WEST. 14 44 3 91 46 + 5 s. 1 a. 1 31 63 118 Cldy .. 28 Cloud- 153 Clear. a -f 7 8 ' + 10 CHARACTER. Deficiency East, and Excess West: Moderately Wet, Mild. THERE has been now three years in succession of the same order of East and West wind by the annual rate, a circumstance only once occurring in a revolution of the Cycle; yet the variety of wind and weather by the seasons in these years, cannot be surpassed in any equal portion of time, though not severe in any of the particu- lars : in the three years there were two frosty winters and one mild ; and there were one wet cold, one dry cold, and one wet mild sum- mer, (the current) so that it seems a very general rule for the lots of Deficiency East to have all the wet summers. The crossing which comes in the succeeding year, from Defi- ciency E'ist t ) Excess, and from Excess West to Deficiency, muss make, as it may be said, more weather ! Parting su.\fMER 1813. tf! This season \ f the second instance of a cbange of weather com- mencing upi.n the sumuier, but the first whicl* is uiat of 10.}, ;;ul properly only the sign ra multitude of short rains ; in the present instance, the rain took eSec- at once, in consequence of the s'-.^r- of the previous summer which had Excess East; the other was con- sequently followed by a ivet winter, and the present, it may be said of course, by a frosty winter. The number of October foggs is high, owing to the place o ob- servation being about StX) feet above sea level, but the foggs pre- vailed unusually over all the low country. Though there was thunder upon eight days pf the summer sea- son, it was not frequent on any ; but it is somewhat remarkable, that this phenomenon should be near equally prevalent on the last sum- mers of the quadruple and triple Excess. The Aurora Boreales are but rarely seen so far South as the place of observation of this season DAKTMOOII FORLST, DEVON- SHIRE. There is an Excess West upon both seasons of this year, and it hag been remarked, that when an Excess of both winds took place on each of the seasons of one year, a change constantly followed, or accompanied, so that when an Excess E6 41 4 36 76 31 7 1 Gales. Windy Calms. ^M Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. i WEST. 26 39 23 116 52 44 26 55 13 103 Cldy. 43 Clouds 133 Clear. 5 + 28 + 4 16 2 CHARACTER. Great Deficiency East, and Slight Deficiency West ; Above Average Rain, Mild, Cloudy. IT is remarkable, that in a revolution of the Cycle, there are eleven years with Excess of East and West wind on -each year, and the same number with Deficiency of each ; the present is the first instance coming under observation of the latter kind. The years of Excess of both winds, 1806 and 1809, had dry summers, the first in the list of cold, and the last in the list of mild summers; whereas the years of Deficiency of both winds, have wet summers, the first mihl, and the last cold but the winters of each set are not altogether so regular, the years of Excess having wet winters, and of the years of Deficiency, the current is also wet, and the other, which is the next, is dry. Indeed the cause or rule for the present, being wet, is not obvious, excepting in the circumstance of having Deficiency East for the first time, after Excess, all such being ob- served to have above average ram. This is the first winter under average gales since 1807, it has all Part III.'] WINTER 1813. 10$ the characters of the storm in an eminent degree, excepting th frost, which is a favourable circumstance for the following summer, in the absence of Excess West wind, though considering the low rate of the East, it may be said, as it is in fact, a virtual Excess West and it may be observed here, by the way, that all other possible states of the wind have been now experienced, excepting an Excess of both in the winters. The very uncommon number of short rains of the present season promises the longest duration to the change, it being at the com- mencement : and it shews that the weather is increasing in commi- nution at every repetition of the storm, which are in quick succes- sion at this time, in the same manner and proportion that the lots of Excess of both, particularly the East wind, are comminuted. But it is the increase of the lots of Deficiency which properly de- termines this increase of the comminution of the elements. The quantity of East wind this season is limited, yet the balance is not carried to the West wind as usual, but a great number of days is lost in calms, which arises from the Annual Deficierc* of both winds : it was the same last winter, on which account the Ex- cess is moderate, and the Deficiency West more considerable than on the present season. From these circumstances, and particularly from the mildness of the current season, the succeeding summrr, cannot be an extreme wet, for this extreme only happens when the cold is combined, and the winter at average rain. The thunder is observed on every winter after Excess East in summer. The entire change which took place last year, by the annual rate, was after three years in which the wind was in one direction, that is, each wind, the triple Deficiency East, and triple Excess West, and the effect in consequence moderate : on the present year is half a change, or of one wind only, from Excess East to Defi- ciency, which has induced the storm, and the effect is in proportion ; thus the wet year of the present Deficiency East is of the lowest rate, and the whole year is mild ; the rotation of the Enst wind is continued as usual. The present mild wet winter corresponds with the cold wet sum- mer of 1807, under the second year of the quadruple Excess, for there is only one wet summer under that lot, as there is only one wet winter under the current quadruple Deficiency. The variables by both Tables VIII. and X. are fewer than on any winter for these seven years past, excepting the singular year of 1813, the wind prevails about the West by South, and East ; the North North East, and South South East having none. Th^e va- cancies however are not in consequence of a want of wind, but oo account of the many variables, which are increasing muth i'lotn this period forward ; whereas it has been quite otherwise in the first years of observation, on which there were but few variables, aad as few calms in proportion. HISTORY OF THE VTBATHSR. [Part 111. SUMMER 1815. B^r. r Grcdt ^ Kains. Modi. Kaius. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. Tnur. dcr. LlglllM 1 298 57 3 i 40 54 2 3 ; 1 1 Gales Windy Calms. JD..y s Rain. Amount Ruin Frost Var. EAST WEST. 11 29 3 97 48 s. a. fc- 45 79 K>2 CIdy. 22 C'ouds l/> : Clear. 3 + 1? + 7 + 8 5 CHARACTER. Excess East, and Deficiency West Wet, Calnj, Cloudy. SUMMER thunder regularly decreases M>ith the decrease of West wind in winter, while every summer of Excess Last throws it upon the winter, as appears hy the succeeding seasons. This season has every character of the storm, exceping the coM, (which will follow of course) as 'may be seen by the number of short uud moderate rains, and days rain, with considerable cloudiness, but much broken, various, and comminuted. The summer of Excess East, be it in the storm or otherwise, thews greater comparative condensation of the elements; the pre- sent much exceeds last winter in this respect, though forming a component part of the storm ; the winter however U the season of all extremes. The Deficiency West wind, for two whole years, must be follow- ed by dryness somewhere, as the Excess VVest under the quadru- ple Excess was followed by much wet; therefore as the \vind is Excess East this summer, (which indicates another wet summer) the succeeding winter will be both dry and frosty. From the few foggs in October, and Aurorce Boreales, but above all, from the na- ture of a storm under Deficiency East, the indication is, that the frost will not be continuous, but frequently interrupted by freshes also, a wet summer is commonly followed by a frosty winter, consequent- ly the summer after will be cold ; and this combination taking place Nor** The Crops this season were also great and good, it could scarcely b tbarwise in a mild summer with rains not excessive, Part ///.] SUMMER 1815. 103 at the end of a storm, considering the state of comminution of all the elements, and the present Excess East, will render ihe summer in question (1816) remarkable. The cold combining towards the conclusion of the storm must have another effect, which is, to render the weather during its course of the stormy character, though the force of the winife is now at a low ebb. which in some respects is much against the current seasons, as more particularly to be mentioned, The Barometer average is very high considering the wet of the season, but this is accounted fr satisfactorily by the few high winds, and the moderate though frequent falls of rain in steadier weather, with occasional high winds and great rains at wide inter- vals, it has stood considerably otherwise. The gradation of the temperature of the first summer of every lot of Deficiency East has been stated as increasing by 4- each time; but the rate of temperature of the summers of the last Defi- ciency of every lot have not been all observed, though there is lit- tle doubt of the same being decreasing as the other is increasing, but not to the same extent The unchangeable winds are becoming irregular in the distribu- tion, and so continue forward during the remainder of the revolution of the varUbles, which commenced with the single Excess West, of 1803, and will terminate with the year before the succeeding single Excess VV'est, the 1820, comprehending just Eighteen years. WINTER 1816. Sixteenth Year of the Eighteen Year Period, D. D ? Second of Quadruple Deficiency East, and last of Triple Deficiency West. JERTH. NEWCASTLE. PERTH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Motlu Rains. Short Rains.

1. As only one year of this storm is under the influence, or con- nected with the cold period, which is the current year, and as there a. 1 ways appear two years together of this description, it remains to be enquired how this is to be effected on the present occasion, which is solved in the following manner. Next summer is stated as wet, therefore winter after will be frosty : and again the double Excess West commences on the next year, and being preceded by a triple Deficiency West, it will appear in Excess upon the winter of the first year, consequently the summer after (1817) will be still colder than its predecessor, agreeable to the usual rule, it being after a frosty winter with a first Excess of West wind, which ad- mits of greater cold, becausfe that year and the succeeding are under Deficiency East. The days unchangeable winds are irregularly spread upon the compass, and the preponderance is on the West, South West, and No r th West. 108 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part HI. SUMMER 1816. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Moclt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct Foggs. A.B. Thun- der. l*ht. j ning. 298 51 4 38 64 i 3 2 2 Gales. Windy Calms. Daya Rain. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 20 38 20 106 50 s. 5 a. 7 44 85 79 Cldy. 42 Clouds 142 Clear. -f- 22 + '9 + " 29 . Great Excess East, and Great Deficiency West ; Wet, Cold t Cloudy. THIS is the third summer in succession of Actual Excess East, with an increase of the Excess present season, which undoubtedly limited the comminution, though still the most extensive of all the summers: the third Excess however appears to operate upon the succeeding summer, in the same manner as the third Excess West, as to quantity of rain, being followed by an average. The Excess of short rains shews the storm to be at an end : but the storm, or same weather continued to the end of November fol- lowing, so that by calculating the short rains from June to the for- mer month, the number is 72, which correspond more particularly \\itli the sum of the first season of the storm, winter J815. It has been observed in the Register that the Auroras Boreales, of late years have assumed an appearance quite different from that noticed upon the first years for at that time this phenomenon ap- peared of a dry, dense, and firm texture of composition, and almost always ranged in upright paralel columns, of a bright yellow green- ish colour generally, very lively, and seeming at a great distance, whereas latterly this solidity has given way gradually to a diffused, soft, and loose consistence of a milky colour, which might be term- ed a state of solution. It also appears generally much lower down, sometimes mixing with the clouds, and even down to the surface of the ground ; the columnar form and lively motion being no longer visible* or but faintly at times; a change which no doubt must be owing to the general state of the elements, which have undergone Part III.] SUMMER 1816. 109 so much alteration from a solid consistency to an almost complete solution of all the principles. A remarkable appearance of the Aurora Borcales on the 23d of September, attracted the admiration, and in not a few, the appre- hensions of the spectator ; their appearances however this season was limited. This summer and that of 1812 resembled each other considera- bly, but differed greatly in the sum of rain : both terminated a long' storm, and had each nearly the same number of short rains, yet the comminution of each will not bear a comparison, for the short rains of the present period are very generally made up of a number of slight falls on each day, whereas on the former storms, the short rains con- sisted generally of single falls on each day.* A remark in the Register of this time, (before the discoveries in the weather) is to the following purport, viz. " The latter years are exactly opposite in character in every particular to the years at the commencement of observation, which shew that an entire revolu- tion has taken place in the seasons." The comminution of the elements this season was most pernicious in the effect : and it is singular that the divisibility of the whole of a moderate Excess rain and cold should have occasioned much more serious effects than greater sums of rain and cold under different circumstances: hence it maybe conjectured, that in a revolution of the System there are severer seasons than the one now terminated. The wonderful power of the single Excess East, is here displayed in the strongest manner, for in the rest of the System it is not com- bined with so great a lot of Deficiency, therefore at other times it cannot be so productive of irregular weather See the single Excess East of I814?, which has been accompanied and followed by Excess East on every summer as yet. In other positions it has not the same power, as I'or instance, there" is a single Excess East upon the year before the commencement of the Register, and preceded in- stead of being followed by a quadruple Deficiency, in consequence its effect was wholly confined to the year of Excess, and as the ef- fect of Excess East including its following Deficiency, is both good and bad weather, the summer of the year in question, was of a mix- ed character, unlike any observed. The short rains of each storm, first and last season, stand thu?, winter 1807, 52; winter 1808, 56; winter 1811, 6i; summer 1812, 66; winter 1SI5, 76; and summer 1816, 72; but in fact the short rains increased in a much greater proportion^ as explained in the preceding pages. Among the wonders of this critical season deserving of particular notice, was a smart shock of an earthquake on the night of the 13th The crops of these two seasons were nearly of the same bulk, but the rain of the cuirent exceeded so njucb, and the wind became so inert in the last months, ttiat the harvest was not only retarded, but spoiled beyond example. 110 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [.Part ///. August, which was strongly felt over the greatest part of Scotland, especially to the North. The day was of ordinary appearance, fair, somewhat cloudy, and windy, from the South West, Bar. 29. 9. Ther. at 8 A.M. 55: hy 8 P.M. clearing from the South, and calmed; the evening and night exceedingly serene and settled, and at a quarter before 1 1, the shock took place, and the percussions continued from about 3 to 4 seconds ; at least such appeared the duration to the writer who happened at the time to be leaning over a table reading. The morning alter was calm, and at 5 A. M. a thin veil of a high cloud, usually termed a Cirro Stratus, from the East, and East by North, and rain at G A. M. much fell on this and three subsequent days, but no particular alteration took place in the Barometer, or Thermometer. The unchangeable winds of the last and present season are very irregular. WINTER 181T. Seventeenth Year of the Eighteen Year Period. D* E. Third of Quadruple Deficiency, and First of Double Excess West. Bar. Ther. Great Rains Medt. Rains. Short Rains Days Snow. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 299 39 i 26 60 30 .23 3 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 32 53 9 89 39 75 25 25 147 Cldy. 21 Clouds 156 Clear 4 + 1 9 + 15 43 +42 CHARACTER. Extraordinary Great Deficiency East, and equally Extraordinary Great Excess Wed ! Dry, Frosty. AN extraordinary season is never seen alone in the weather, there being always a pair together, whether dry or wet, or one dry and the WIXTER1817. Ill other wet ; whatever it be that distinguishes a season, there is always beside it one equally remarkable. The present winter exceeds the last in singularity, and its character is not to be described in few words : the number of the frost equals those of the hardest winters, but they were at the same time almost universally slight, with a clear warm sun in general ! It was on the whole pleasant weather, but such a medley of mildness and frost, that there has been no- thing like it observed This points out a new course of the weather as having commenced with this season. The appearance of Aurora Boreales which were unusually fre- quent, were similarly circumstanced with the frost, that is generally slight, and transient, and but a soft milkiness, particularly in the spring; the same remark applies to the wind and rain, and the ele- ments were become so comminuted, that by the month of March scarce any weather could be obtained : In short all that has been hitherto mentioned of comminution is beggared by the present sea- son, for instead of comminution, the elements might be said to be in a state of solution. This is however as it should be, it having been observed that the winter is the season of all extremes. In many, or in all the other particulars, an extremity appears, which may be strikingly seen by comparing the quantity of rain with the number of days en which it fell; but as before explained, the number of days will not give an accurate comparative idea of the extent of the comminution : the other extremities alluded to are extreme Deficiency of East, extreme Excess of West wind, great mildness with frequent frost : in short, the weather of this season is without its fellow. The cause of these very various appearance?, becomes apparent from the nature of the falls of rain and weather of the succeeding season, and the state of the annual winds. It seems that with this year a new course of wind and weather commenced, for the Defi- ciency of this year, which is the third in succession of the East wind , (and second before the actual Excess) is a beginning course of Ex- cess, which leads to the triple Excess East of subsequent years, and hence the very mixed weather of this season and year ; the mild weather of the Excess being combined with the cold brought by the Deficiency, and both augmented by the double Excess West ; the different lots being so disposed as to inosculate with each other, from which disposition it happens that no two courses of the wind by the annual rate ever commence at the same time. It is on this account that the weather under the current Eighteen year period, is better defined than that of the other periods in a revolution ; for three courses of the series of lots, the Deficiency East, the Excess East, and the Excess West, have all their origin in the short space of four years. (See the first four years observed.) It was curious to observe ia the latter end of March, and the whole of April, now and then all the ordinary preparations and signs of change, such as a depression of the Barometer, increase of cold, 112 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par/ ///. clouds, wind, &Q yet no deposition could be effected, a few parti- cles of snow, or rain, wide scattered in a hurried intermitting wind, and always in the Westerly points, being all the result: and the clouds themselves at last seemed on the point of disappearing, as if the continual West wind had driven them away, hut the Excess West, when unusually high, extinguishes the clouds ; hence the last month of this season is among the dryest observed, and it became evident that there would be no more rain, clouds, nor any thing else, until the return of the East wind for the continuance of one wind with- out opposition, amounts to the same thing as the absence of both . and accordingly, on the last days of April, when the wind began to touch upon the East, the clouds began to form, and rain to fall in large heavy drops with thunder, which was the first instance of the kind in this month coming in the observations of the Register. As the winter East wind is so low, it must henceforth be upon the increase, especially as a mild period is at hand, and a triple Excess East by the annual rate not far off in fact, nothing but a change of wind from Deficiency to Excess East could change the weather which has been these two years remarkably severe ; and it may be stated, that though the annual System was not known, the indication by the seasons point out an increase of the East wind for some of the years to come. The prognostics as to the sum of rain of next summer from pre- sent circumstance*, is the following. By the winters the first Excess West (under annual Excess) is followed by a dry summer, but thd sum being on the increase at every repetition of Excess West, in the course, or current Eighteen year period, the following compa- rative view will serve to determine the quantity. First winter of Excess West under the quadruple, is followed by '2.5, as the sum on the succeeding su.miner ( 1806). First winter of Excess under the triple Excess, followed by rain 36, summer 1812. Therefore at this rate, the first winter of Excess (the current) under the double Excess, will be followed by as much rain as possible, without con- stituting a wet summer, which of course will be about an average. As the sum of West wind this season is the greatest Excess hitherto observed, and being preceded by an equally proportiona- ble great Excess East in the summer it appears why the Ain-orec Boreales, and especially the thunder, are so unusually frequent this season, which extended over all EUKOPE and what is not a little remarkable, the manner of appearance of the former corresponds wi.th the frequency and power of the frost. A higher rate of windy days, (but hurried and intermitting, and frequently a fearful suspence,) have been observed this season, than appears since the winter of 1807, which was the prelude to the many high winds succeeding ; the present great number of windy days is owing to the power of the double Excess West, and have- appeared on the first year of the lot, because it is preceded by only a triple De- ficiency ; whereas the quadruple is preceded by six years of Fait ///.] WINTER 1817, &C. 110 In consequence of these different arrangements, the most powerful aiul most frequent high winds will be upon the next winter, or last year of the doable Excess : but this increase w ill be modified by the circumstance of coining in contact, or on the ?ame year with the last of a long lot of Deficiency East, which appears to re- duce the sum of the force of the winds considerably. About the end of November, and the beginning of Decmiber, the mercury in the Barometer rose unusually high, equal or something more than the elevation in December 1812, already mentioned: subsequent great rises followed, and the clouds assumed a different aspect, but those peculiar to a mild air were totally wanting. The average rate of the Barometer by the winters has been gra- dually rising from the winter of 13 11 ; the two winters preceding being at the same low rate. The unchangeable wind is very irregularly spread upon the points, apd almost all, of course, in the West. It was with the beginning of tin sseason that the calculation in the weather were recommenced, for the reason stated in the Intro- duction the snms of the wind and rain by seasons were completed by the end of December, and a ^reat proportion of the rules of the weather detected, and committed to writing in course of the remain? tier o.' the seu>uo. SUMMER 1817, Bar Ther. Great Rains. ttodt Ranis. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. .rrmii- Li nirg. 299 49| 4 SI 53 1 3 5 9 -> Gales Windy Calms. Days Ram. Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. vEor U 26 11 88 42 S. 11 a. 19 50 87 ' 86 Cidy 24 Clou*.- 151 Clear. 5 + 4 + 1 + 16 22 CHARACTER. Great Excess East, and Great Deficiency West : Average Rain, Cold, Calm, Cloudy. THE quantity of rain is scarce above average, but falling almost whqlly upon the first four months rendered this part of the season tf 11* HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part JI1. very wet, while the two last months were quite otherwise ;* an irre- gularity arising from the year forming the link between the stormy and Settled weather or in other words, from the effects of the con- tact of an expiring and renewed course of the series of lots of the wind from the same cause it is probably owing that the principal rain of the winter and summer of this year, and some subsequent, fell chiefly on the first months of the season ; as in the wet summer of 1807, and some other seasons about that period, when the course of the East wind was in vigour, and the West but just commenced, the principal rain fell upon the last months of the season. A more, or less inequality, however, in the distribution of the rain is observed upon all the seasons, hut the consequent effects are varied as these circumstances happen in mild or cold summers. In the current season the cold by night considerably exceeded that of last summer, or indeed any summer in the list that of 1807 is about the same, but that season, was observed in the country, and near two degrees farther North ; whereas the temperature of the preseat has been taken in the centre of a large low lying town, which must make a difference of greater cojd. by two degrees of FAHREN- IIB;T'S at least. The condensation of this season is considerably different from that of last summer, notwithstanding of the great Deficiency of East wind in winter, and the great cold prevailing : but it was still more considerable in regard of the clouds, which were compact and thick, with much more sunshine than in the former, though its pow- er appeared very feeble indeed in September and October, it was almost continually clear, but cairn, with, frequent frost in the last mentioned month ; all which circumstances appear to be owing to^ the absence of the storm. Rut the most singular appearance of this season, consisted in the close compact showers, and great size of the drops of rain, with very frequent thunder ; these appearances were then considered as a sign of a new course of weather, while the nature of the System was to- tally unkno.wn, though the discovery of the 54* year Cycle was made on the 12th July, of this season, 4ind the state of the winds by the System corroborates the remark. It will be now understood why it happened to be so evident, that the lots must be in the order stated, as under the current distressing weather, it was instantly apparent that the Excess East only could restore moderate, or reasonable weather ; and the current year being so much deficient in East wind, and the third of a lot, or course in succession, shewed at once, that 9 And the harvest season, of course, favourable, but the constant cold air of night through the whole, with the exception of a few days in June, occasioned a slow vegetation, in consequence of which, and the continual calms, a proportion of the crops remained to be secured in the winter months, always an unfavourable tinv for reaping- Purl /TT.j SUMMER 181?. 1U the lot would extend to four years, since the previous (of the same description) consisted of three years, &c. It seems that there is an increase in the sum of rain, after every first winter of Excess West, (under annual Excess of course) and a like increase in the sum of wind of each Succeeding first winter of Excess, with other changes in the relative circumstances; hence as this course is at an end, which means that the lots of the series of Excess West which affect the winters, are at an end, the next first winter of Excess West will be as the first observed, that is, under the quadruple Excess^ which begins in 1823, consequently the sum- mer after the first winter of Excess West will be very dry but most probable not equally so with the 1803, because that quadruple Ex- cess is opposed by a double Excess East, and not the last of a triple Excess East, as in the year stated, but, again, the double Excess East being opposed to tbe tw"o first of the quadruple, promises tp produce a nearly equal effect on the summer of the last, year* of the lot. The increase of the East wind next winter arising from the ope- ration of the second triple Excess East, which begins in absolute Excess in the year succeeding, will occasion a mild and average winter, notwithstanding of the present cold which is at an end with the current season, (indeed a hard cold winter can scarcely follow the last of two cold summers,) but the rain of the present season being a full average, the frost in the succeeding winter will be about this rate : the rain will be also about average, for all the first winters of Excess West have been followed by one with average rain but more especially, the two preceding winters having been both dry, and preceded by a wet, the next winter will be full average, accord- ing to the rules. The Aurora Borealcs of this season are but few, considering the great Excess East after Excess West, but the East wind, thodgh frequent, was exceedingly weak: it was indeed somewhat difficult to detect the exact sum ; for the last storm of the current Eighteen year period being done, the winds as it were, became careless. One appearance of the Aurora Boreales on 19th September, much resembled the solid yellow columnar form remarked as the usual appearance when the weather was regular, the rest were of the diluted sort, customary of late years. This isolated phenome- non appears to indicate much> since the fine regular weather of suc- ceeding years began to shew itself even in this disastrous season, for the blink of very warm weather in the end of June, appears to be an earnest of what was to follow on the succeeding years. There were not any entire foggy days in October, but there were more slight foggs at night than are included in the tabular view ; it being somewhat uncertain how to determine the exact sum of part of the phenomena when in a state of great comminution ; but this state indicates that the frost of the ensuing winter will be slight and \ HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. Part III. frequent. The finding of the sum of the wind, as stated, particu- larly the sum of the East of this season, has been the only one hitherto attended with any difficulty, the calms being continually recurring, particularly in mornings and evenings, and the \v ind at noon very weak, with a high rate of variables, which appear to increase as the lols of Excess become small, and the lots of Deficiency become great, espe- cially of the East wind ; and with this the weather is beginning to lose that decided character which has prevailed from the commence- ment of observations, so that it has now become necessary to calculate the actual times of the blowing ot the winds, as to direction, the Rule of Three not giving the proper result when it happens that a small quantity of one wind is spread upon a greater proportion of days in- a season than that which is actually in Excess. This lias not been exactly the case in the present season, but the principle is beginning to -mahifest itself, as appears by the subsequent year?, which is explained in the General View. This, as may be imagined, was no small embarrassment at the very moment of the discovery of the System, when the particular laws of the wind were but little under- stood ; but the nature of the series of lots, and of the alternate wea- ther observed, left no room for doubt, as all familiar with the pro- cess of matter must perceive at a glance : but it is certainly remark- able that such perplexities, if it may be so called, should occur ar the instant of the discovery. In the period observed, or first Eighteen year course, it seems that on every first year of Excess West, the Excess is only upon the winter, * the summer after having Excess East, (excepting the sin- gle Excess, which is in every respect. quite the contrary ;) it remains to be determined by observation, whether this is the rule in the other courses of the winds, or Eighteen year periods. The unchangeable wind is very irregularly disposed, and is at a low rate. This season concludes the Eighteen year period; when the few remaining years observed, are attended to, it will become appa- rent, why the pertod of Eighteen is made to commence as arranged no other appearing to begin a course of similar weather : but with regard to the series of lots, the single Deficiency East appears pre- ferable as a beginning ; but the weather before and after this lot for some years is of the same u.iiform and indolent character moreover it has been stated in the General View, that one series in the wea- ther began w'ii e another was in progress, and it is just so in regard of the general weather and wind, for a certain stale of the firmer begins, it is true, at a certain state of one of the winds, but the be- ginning of the course of the oiher wind is at more or leas interval* after. In the same manner of the lots of Excess East, which begin with the win. tor, and end with the ,ummer ; so that where one of these classes is differently dis- tributed, that is begins on the summer, and ends with the winter, the same rule is to be expected of the other class, of which the second Eighteen year period pro- mise* examples Part 7/7.1 WINTER 1818, 11? WINTER 1818. First Season of the First Year of the Second Period of Eighleeit. D. E, Last of Quadruple Deficiency East, and last of Double Excess West. PERTH. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Gre 1 1 R*ins. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B Thun- der. Light- nine. 296 37 9 25 6 2.T ' 8 . 1 1 Gales. Windy Calms Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost Var. East. West 28 41 8 95 47 65 b7 47 126 Cldy. 26 Clouds 143 Clear. 12 + ' _ ,~ + 5 21 + 21 CHARACTER. Great Deficiency East, and Great Excess Wed Average Rain and Frosty Clear. \ THIS h the first season of the Eighteen year period, now current. As the last year has been termed the link between the stormy and settled weather* the present season forms the same connection be- tween the cold and the mild. On the high grounds every fall almost was snowy and frosty, which rendered the season in such districts nearly, if not more severe than any experienced since the com- mencement of the Register ; and it was at best a very troublesome average in the most favoured position. The frost is slightly above average as indicated, but considerably under the average of frosty winters, or any frosty winter; at the same time the air was almost continually of a frosty tendency, especially in the spring, which yet were most commonly slight this state is analogous to the great comminution of the other elements of'late years. The rain is just the average indicated, and the condensation ap- pears increased by the number of great rains, but the comminution >! aUu great, from the continued Deficiency of East, prevalence of 11$ HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. \_Partlll. West wind, and cold: the East wind however is considerably on the in- crease, by virtue of the triple Excess East at hand, for the Excess extends to the Deficiency, and the contrary ; but the increase was scarce sensible until the month of April, in which the condensation was remarkable, there being in it four great rains, one moderate, and but four short rains. The electric phenomena were not near so frequent, or formida- ble, as on the preceding winter, because the present is a repetition of an Excess West after repeated Excess East by the summers : the thunder was observed in various quarters, and for the first time no- ticed by the Register in the month of November, all the other months being observed with thunder, so that there is a complete round of this phenomena on all the months of the year, during a course of the series of Excess and Deficiency of each wind. The force of the wind is increased this season, as indicated by the Excess West, but the frequency of gales is reduced in the same manner as has been observed under the second ycar^ of the qua- druple Excess; but this is chiefly brought about, on the present oc- casion, by the last of the double Excess West being opposed by the last of the quadruple Deficiency East, which diminishes the fre- quency of gales ; yet on one or two occasions in January, the force was equal to any instance observed, excepting the memorable storm of Christmas 1805. The Barometer average has already receded, from the new prin- ciples combined in the weather the increase of the great rains, force of the wind, &c. The indication for the succeeding summer stands thus : As the summer Excess East of 1814- 15, have been both followed by wet summers, and the great Excess East of 1816, followed by an aver- age ; so the great Excess East of 1817, will be followed by an un- der average rate of rain, or a dry season ; a variation there is reason to ascribe to the change in the West wind under this Jong lot of Deficiency East. Another rule for determining the rate of rain for next season is, that last summer, and present winter, having each average rain, the next sumraer must have an under rate, it cannot be over, as that would form another v^et year under the same lot of the wind, which appears impossible; therefore next summer will be dry. It is singular that all the average seasons are in the transition of the weather, from dry to wet, or from wet to dry, never Standing alone. The indications for next winter are the following : From the rule by seasons it appears that after every course of dry there must come a course -of wet, either winter or summer, and the contrary. Now, when two dry seasons follow in succession respectively, the next is average, (if an average do not precede the two dry,) and the succeeding is wet: and as winter 1816 17, were both dry, and winter 1818 at average, therefore winter 1819 will be wet ; but the quantity of rain, though determined as wet, will depend upon the Part ///.] WINTER 1818, &C. 119 manner of operation of the triple Excess East, which begins on that year ; if it is Excess East on the winter, it will be very wet, being after immediate Excess West ; and if the contrary, it will be but little above the average, for being preceded by Excess West it can- not be under average ; the temperature at the same a time being mild, as the frost is gradually decreasing with the continuance of Excess West by the winters, from 1816 inclusive, and it must be at under average before the next frosty winter moreover, the summer 1818 being dry, mild, and Excess West, should be followed by a mild winter. This season has been remarkable from the almost total absence of the soft weather clouds ; those appearing, especially in the spring, being always snowy and cold looking, of a particular description, difficult to be explained in words, and much broken or comminuted, from which there resulted a general clearness, while the number ot" entire clear days were but limited: the prevalence of a true East wind in April changed this arrangement to the regular Cumulo Stratus,' but only for the time. It deserves to be stated, that the warm weather clouds which have a peculiar form, and different from the soft weather clouds mentioned, have not been once seen since summer 1815, nor have they been seen in perfection for a number of years previous : their return must therefore be gradual, and not per- fected until after the single Excess West of 1821. SUMMER 1818. EDINBURGH. Bar. Then Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 297 56 3 18 69 2 16 4 2 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain Frost. Var. EAST WEST. 13 39 90 35 s. a. 52 65 119 Cldy. 43 Clouds 13 2 Cleir. 9 + 6 6 6 -HI CHARACTER. Deficiency East, Excess West. Dry, Mild, Clear. THIS was an uncommon season in many respects ; the average temperature is moderate, yet the warmth by day, owing to a gene- 120 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part 111. ral clear sky, chiefly, exceeded any season observed by the Regis- ter hitherto, particularly in the last half of May, and the months of June and July, \vhile the night air was almost constantly cold ; which is accounted for in the usual manner the long continued Deficiency of East wind in the winters, together with the Excess West, and is much the same as the tioted summers cf IbOO I, in which the an- nual wind is Deficiency of both East and West : the double Excess West of that period being opposed to the two first years of the qua- druple Deficiency East ; but the double Excess of the present course being on the two last years of the quadruple' Deficiency, the cloudi- ness continued more considerably through the lot, and the weather otherwise in some degree different. There were many days of the present season so exceedingly bright, (in part owing to the re- flection of partial transparent clouds,) as if the tropical climate had been far removed into the northern latitudes ; this great brightness or lustre of the sky must directly be a consequence of the particular disposition of the electric matter ; yet the thunder and the lightning were not frequent nor formidable, the state of the winds not admit- ting of an active operation of these phenomena. The night air in the autunm months increased in temperature, while that of the day de- creased,* so that this part of ^he season formed the most agreeable weather imaginable. The comminution of the Vain by the summers is the most exten- sive since the same season of 180:5; and (he Excess We*>t is so fur similar that it is like the former, a single, by the summers, and considerably distant from any other Excess of the same kind by these seasons; but being one of u lot, it was not followed bv any thing of a nearly equal wet winter; besides, that the sum of Exces-s West is but moderate, and the Deficiency East the same ; and moreover the succeeding winter had still a Deficiency of East, so that the quantity of rain as indicated, js but little above average ; and probably the power of the triple Excess East only could have deposited so much under all the other circumstances. The hot sun and dry air was particularly severe in England, at least in the South and East, from the general low level of the laud, but in more hilly districts a greater proportion of cloudiness and rain was accompanied by proportionable results. }t appears singularly fortunate, or rather it should be said, most wisely ordered, that tl.e clearest summers are after Deficiendy of East wind in winter, as otherwise the higher night temperature, and stronger absorbing powers of the air, would be infinitely more inconvenient. The frequency of Aurora; Boreales this season, bears some ana- logy to the appearance of the same phenomenon in summer 1803, only at present more considerable, and the same correspondence * The consequence was a most extraordinary vegetation, which continued through the winter ; but the corn crops were considerably stinted by the previous heat and drought, though good in quality. Parl 111. j sr:.iM2a 1818. - 121 may be observed between the succeeding summer and that of ISO], both being the first Excess East by the summers under the respec- tive triples, and in each instance followed by Excess rain, or frosty but in different proportions, and in a different manner, according to the position oi'the summer Excess East in each lot. The present summer being dry, and the succeeding of the same description of course, it being after a summer of Excess \Yeht, is the second appearance of a pair of dry summers : the first pair 1SOS 9, is the combined effect of the double Deficiency East, and the double Excess East, the last and first year of each in the order stated : in the present instance this result is the combined effect of the quadruple Deficiency, and triple Excess East ; and from the principle of equality observed in the weather, the next pair of dry summers will probably be effected between the succveding double Deficiency and single Excess East ; but it is to be observed, that no single, as yet, appears connected with a pair of any description by the winters, or by the summers, that is, respectively other proba- bilities will be found stated in the subsequent pages. Tin's being the last year of the double Excess West, both seasons fire in Excess of this wind, which finishes the course of this lot ; it indicates a dry summer after, and the winter intervening would have been dry under any other state than the first of triple Excess East, and probably the first of double Excess East. The Deficiency East of this season is the highest rate of the East wind under the last Deficiency of each lot by the summers, the in- crease being gradual, as the first winter of Excess East is decreas~ ing from the first triple Excess; from both which, rules or conse- quences are deduced and explained in Part IV. The sum of the force of the wind this season is very moderate, and there were scarce any gales, and but few high winds, of no long continuance; but this being a first and only one Excess West by summers at a time, and opposed by the last Deficiency East of a lot, sufficiently accounts for the moderate rate of the force of the wind. The rate of the thunder is but moderate, and still less on the average than appears by the Tabular View, there being but little on each day, which agrees with the general result of continued Excess West. Notwithstanding of the great heat by day, the clouds did not in- dicate particular warmth, but very generally the contrary; for the air on the surface of the ground only was mild, and that only by day : and it is most probable that whatever be the heat of the day, the clouds peculiar to a mild atmosphere will not appear, until the weather becomes regular, and calms and variable winds disap- pear in a great measure; for though there were few, or no calms this season, owing to the double Excess, in the general weather of the current years, the calms and variable?, greatly prevail, or rather are much comminuted. 122 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. tPart lit. The rate of the variables is considerably high by all the tabled, and consequently the unchangeable wind is limited, and very ir- regular. WINTER 1819. Second Year of the Second Period of Eighteen. E. D. First of the Second Triple Excess East, and First of the Second Double Deficiency West. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt Rains Short Rains. Days Snow. A.B. Thun- der. Light- ning 297 42 10 30 57 12 12 | Gales. Windy Calms. ^T 8 (Amount Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 24 4-1 4 97 53 34 55 50 " 126 Cldy. 36 Clouds Clear. 127 { 18 + 9 + 4 26 + 21 CHARACTER. Gre at Deficiency Easl, and Great Excess Went. Above Average Rain, Mild, Clear. AM unexpected contrast appears under this first winter of the second triple Excess East, as compared with the winter of }8O4-, which is exactly under the sam'e stale of the annual winds ; in other particulars this season is singular, and the only one which hears a resemblance, is the winter 1806. The character of the present as a mild winter will be long remembered, but it was not so much dis- tinguished by a high temperature as by an almost entire absence of snow, far though the number of days on which snow fell amounted to twelve, the quantity was very small indeed : yet the season quoted exceeded in mildness, as it averaged 45 w , though there was about an ordinary rate of snow ; both seasons have nearly the same rate of rain, but a great difference in the mode of distribution F 3d Winter of Excess W. 18O8, D. East. Frost 74. Snow 47. Rain in Summer 35 1st Winter of Excess E. 1809, E. East. Frost 24. Snow 24. Rain in Summer 34 The nature of the frosty winters in both these lots oi Excess We?t, are nearly similar, being under Deficiency East by the an- nual rate, and in a storm ; but those following the 1819 are wholly different, being in more regular weather, and in which, the cold is confined to the winter season, at least nearly so. Although the great rains are considerable in number this present season, from the Excess East of the year, there were scarce any of longer continuance than necessary to constitute the distinction; nor indeed has there been any very great rains for a, number oi years past, or since the Excess East were frequent, as is known by the general absence of great spcats through the country, especially in the Northern parts of Scotland, where the coouninution is always more extensive than in the South as explained in the General View The frequent appearance of Aurora Boreales, though ni-t very numerous is somewhat singular, considering the continual Excess West by the winters, and especially the mildness of the present sea- son : as these phenomena are undoubtedly connected with the winds, it is to be expected that the continuance of observation will in some time determine the exact rules under which they form : it is still remarked in the Register, that the warm temperature ex- tend:, but little above the surface of the ground, the upper air^-be- ing continually cold, which is ascertained tiv ui the form and gene- ral appearance of the clouds, so that this state admits of the ap- pearance of Aurora Doreules in greater frequency than common : 12} IIISTOIW OF THE WEATIIEK. [Part 111, pt prercnt tlicy have most likely a reference to the hard frosty win- ters generally expected for several years to come. The wind being considerable Excess West this season, the Excess Ea^t in summer ought to he very high to constitute an Ex- cess East for the year, and the West should be a still lower Defi- ciency, both whiph are possible enough, for the greatest Excess hi- therto observed by the summers is under annual Deficiency East iSee the summer of 1817. This necessary Excess East will bring weather unlike any observed, a hard frosty winter following, an4 an over average of rain summer after, and both under annual Excess East, on J.vjo. The immediate effect of Excess East next season will he more cloudiness than observed last summer ; the degree however will de- pend upon the regularity of the East wind, and rate of the varia- bles ; but being after a Deficiency East in winter, the air by night will be 'still cold whatever be the temperature by day; and as the former pair of dry summers much resembled each other, the same correspondence may be expected on the present pair, making al- lowance for the different state of wind on each. The unchangeable winds are still decreasing, and the variables of course increasing, and the irregularity in the distribution equal- ly so. As new courses and periods commenced with the last year, a brief general view of the distribution of the mild and cold series under the first Eighteen year period may be given here. Every lot with unfavourable weather always terminate in favourable, while one series of lots have fine or favourable weather throughout, the whole, good and bad, being under Excess and Deficiency East : the lots having good or fine, are four, and those having bad or un- favourable, are three ; all the lots of Excess East, and single De- ficiency having fine weather throughout each lot, and the unfavour- able under the remainder of tke lots of Deficiency, but these last liave in addition one-half of fine or favourable weather: hence, the proportion of good to bad is greatly superior, or as 11 of the .first to 4 of the last, reckoning by the surnmers ; thus in detail, all the years of Excess East, the single Deficiency, the second and third of the triple Deficiency, and the first and last of the quadruple De- ficiency are all mild or favourable summers, while only the first of the double, first of the triple, and second and third of the quadru- ple Deficiency, are cold and unfavourable this at least is the order observed in the first Eighteen year period, or course of the winds : moreover, the series of cold and wet summers came together with the least possible intervals of mild courses in the 11 years from 1807 to 1817 inclusive ; but in the remaining periods of a revolu- tion of the Cycle, these cold series or lots of summers, are gene- rally separated by the longest periods of mild summers, which pro- portionably diminishes the effect of the others; in consequence of '. ; hich arrangement nothing like the weather observed in the eleven Part ///.] WINTER 1819, &C. 120 years stated will appear until the same section of the Cycle conies round again ; though particular years and summers will be found at wide intervals as severe, and probably more so than have been experienced in the period stated. As an instance, showing the manner in which this may be brought about, the following may be given as a specimen : The quadruple Deficiency which first ap- pears on the 1834 l . : >o 36 S7, is preceded by a triple Excess East; now this last must have a powerful effect in mitigating the bad weather of the quadruple, that is, the bad weather will be com- pressed upon the middle of the lot in a more remarkable degree than observed of the recent quadruple Deficiency, \vhich is preceded by only a single Excess, and debilitated weather, as it may be term- ed, &c. It will be unnecessary to enter into a more particular ex- planation, as the nature or effect of the different position of the lots must be obvious to every one curious on the subject and it would swell the work to a tedious degree, were an attempt made to ex- plain all the cases and conditions more minutely. SUMMER 1819. EDINBURGH. SUTHEELANDSHIRE. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 296 55 4 17 55 11 3 I Gales. 5 Cldy. 41 Windy Calms. Days Rain. 76 8 Amount Rain. Frost. Var. 71 EAST. 93 WEST. 30 Clouds 127 12 33 8 s. 2 a. 10 79 Clear. 16 4- 22 29 CHARACTER. Very Great Excess East, and Very GfCtit Deficiency Dry* Mild, Clear, Calm. NOTWITHSTANDING the low average temperature of this season, the sun was even more powerful than in the last summer, while the night air was still colder, at least until the middle of July ; in, 126 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Part III. the last days of May there was a severe hoar fro^t,* such as has not been witnessed in tho summer months since the keeping of the Register. The temperature of October being so uncommonly low as 44, re- duced that of the season 2: in this month there were frequent cold, variable northerly winds, and frost, with some snow; so that these winds in regular weather, make hot or frosty reasons, according to the time of the year; or in other terms, if the Excess East appears in summer at the beginning of a lot, the summer is hot, and the winter after is frosty ; but when the Excess East by summers is in the last year of a lot, as observed in all the lots of Excess East in ti first course or Eighteen year period, the summers in these cases have indeed been mild, and the winters after, frosty ; but the frosts were continually interrupted by the constant change or commotion of the elements, induced by the Deficiency East. The number of days rain is at last below the average, a circum- stance which has not occured by winters from the 1813, or by hum- mers from the ISM, and the sum of rain is a trifle less than on the last summer, as usually the case when there is a. pair of dry seasons, the sum being 32^, but there were a number of slight falls, which individually could not be rated as forming any rjuantity, in conse- quence of which a fraction is added to complete ihe number ',>'.>. These slight falls are peculiar to this season, as if the habit of the weather was giving way by degrees they did not result from a partial cloud, on the contrary, great preparations seemed to be made before each, such as, depression of t!:e Barometer, increase of cloudiness, with a threatening aspect, and ultimately a few drops of rain, after which presently the clouds broke up, and fine clear warm weather succeeded this is generally the appearance in dry seasons that is, rain clouds pass over, but no deposition takes place, as it' some unusual obstruction was in the way; but in wet seasons it is quite otherwise in general, the rain being ready to fall without much preparation. The clouds which passed thus charged with rain in the present season, were almost always from the South Westerly points, (which is the almost invariable rule) while there wns scarce- ly any wind going about, and what of it generally contrary, that is, in opposition to the direction of the clouds a circumstance of fie- quent occurcnce. The Aurora Roreales are considerably numerous, as of late years, in which the general atmosphere has been unusually cold, it was the same this season also, which was indicated by the form, texture, and general appearance of the clouds: the prognostication therefore is a frosty winter. The clouds were generally light films * This frost destroyed all the garden fruits, but the corn crops of this season \vs rather more bulky than on tht preceding, though the quality was something defective from the too powerful sun and drought in the last half of July, and ali August, Part I//,] SUMMER 1819. 12^ of the order ' Cuntulo Stratus,' without much of the usual, Or ordi- nary character; nor were they at any time so bright and dazzling as upon the last summer, but rather of a light rusty colour. Indeed the weather of the present period is composed of the shreds of for- mer years, which is probably the result of the very variable winds and calrus, which now prevail in an unusual degree, and which nothing can correct, until the Excess West conies, when the weather has recovered from the effects of the quadruple Defici- t'ncv the cloudy days of the year are however on the increase, which shew that regular weather is approaching by degrees. The thunder was not frequent nor formidable, considering the F.xcess East, but this in consequence of the Excess West by win- ters being the last of a long course, and withal a negative Ex- cess nor will there be much thunder on any season until the suc- ceeding quadruple Excess West. The wind was among the weakest of any season observed, not only owing to the great Deficiency West, which is occasioned part- ly by the frequent calms, bat also to the dryness of the season, for this stato is always attended with less rain than the contrary. The variable winds are much on the increace from a prevalence of Northerly winds in the current year : these winds were frequent, though not so changeable under the former triple Excess East; hut this lot happening then to be more forward in the Eighteen year period, or in other words, further removed from the quadruple Deficiency the consequence as to weather was very different of course. The commencement of the current triple Excess East upon the summer has been rather an unexpected circumstance, from the li- mited view furnished by the few years observed, which may be per- ceived by such as have the rirst published account of tiie System of the Weather in 1818; but it seems the rule of alternation in the ueather is genera!: the next lot of triple Excess East probably commencing in winter, and so on : the effect of such an arrange- ment is different weather, under the alternate order, of course, while one uniform general result is observed a wet winter on the first year of every triple Excess, which shews that the very great quantity of rain in 180-t is owing principally to the previous single Excess West, which is of more virtue by being preceded by a triple Deficiency West; consequently the single Excess West of 1821 will not be followed by an equal quantity of rain, which is rendered still more certain, by this being followed by a single Deficiency East, instead of Excess, tor the lots of the uind have more effect as they are farther detached from lots of the same kind thus, the single Excess East of 1814* being as far as possible from every other lot of Excess East, has its power augmented in proportion, and according to the necessity of the cafe, that is, in its influence upon the succeeding lot of Deficiency ; whereas the single Excess Eu*t of 1802 is as much limited as possible in position and 1-8 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER, [Part III. effect, being followed by a triple Excess East, with an interval of only a single Deficiency though in consequence of this quick suc- cession of these lots it operated On its own year with considerable effect. It has been observed as a constant rule, that after every summe? of Excess East, the succeeding summer is wet, and the system of the rains establishes this point, as a pair of dry summers, if preced- ed by an average, is followed by a wet : now, summer 1817 is'aver- nge, that of 18 and 19 a pair of dry, therefore summer 1820 will be wet, but not an extreme wet, notwithstanding of the present ;reat Excess East, because it is made up of very slrght winds, that wet summers have been recent, and that an extreme wet only hap- pens in a wet year, or when preceded by an average winter, where- as the succeeding winter ought to be dry, being after a summer of great Excess East and great Deficiency West. Tlie wet sunnm'r of J820 will therefore differ in character from any observed, it being in regular weather, (under the limitation repeatedly stated) ami under the second year of the triple Excess East, when the com- pression must be so'mething considerable, together with an increase of the cloudiness ; and according to the general state of the weather, that is, the cold being stil! prevalent, at least in the upper air, it will not consequently be remarkable for mildness, by the average, nor yet exceed in cold ; but from the new principle which appeared, these two summers past in particular, viz. rcat heat, by dar, though cold by night, it is not easy to determine how far the same character will prevail upon next summer, under an over average rate of fain. It is a fortunate circumstance that the great Excess East of .summer in the first instance is accompanied by dry weather, as otherwise the winter following could not be endured ; but it is so coiv Trived that all the signs of severe weather are spread upon different years and seasons, or when an unusual combination happens, other fa- vourable signs are so disposed, that the most moderate change possi- ble is the consequence. Witness the triple Excess West, which fol- lowed the quadruple, with the least interval : see also the position of the triple Excess West, which correspond with the noted 17:3'.) and 174-0.* The succeeding triple Excess West of 1S30, &c. being opposed to the last of triple Deficiency East, and the two first of triple Excess East, cannot operate in a particularly unfavourable mannef. The Deficiency West of this season is considerably less than the Excess East, which is a rare circumstance, only observed upon one * \V~hen the weather under ftrfy lot is extraordinary severe, or the contrary, it moderates the effect of the other lots for many years, ami it is probable that the U>ts which have very remarkable weather, are nut again of this description during several revolutions of^the Cycle the remarkable weather as it were taking the lot* alternately : all the lots however h'avo the same general characteristic weather at all times, but subject to the more or less settre, &c. Part ITT.] SUNIMER 1819. l2> winter of the first triple Excess East, and on two summers under the quadruple Deficiency. In the first of these instances, this is- brought about by the high rate of the Excess East, that is, the Ex- cess East wholly occasions the Deficiency West, but in the last in- stances only in part by the Excess East, and the remainder by calms: on the present season these last, and especially the Defi- ciency West, is spread upon more days of the summer than the great Excess East, which is a circumstance wholly new to observa- tion : in consequence of this disposition it became necessary to cal- culate the actual times of the blowing of the wind both East and West : the number of days on which there were calms amounted to 68, and have been gradually increasing of late years. There appears Several, indeed many strong reasons, why the present triple Excess East should begin upon the summer ;* and one is this, that there are now commenced six years running of the same description, with one exception, the single Deficiency East, which is a greater number tog-ether than occurs in a revolution of the Cycle : it is for the same reason that the winter is Excess West, and that the rate of the West is so high, and the East so low by the year, in order to counteract as rnuch as possible, the effect of so many years of Excess East, for being principally upon the summers, the effect is greatly lessened ; yet the properties of Excess East and Deficiency West of this year are as strongly marked as on any sea- feon or year observed the winter having average compression of the rain, after a course of great comminution ; and the days rain of summer under average, and for the first time, since the former lot of Excess East : moreover the season of actual Deficiency Westj which is the present, had of all the seasons the least sum of the force of the wind ; and so lias the year, frqm the only Excess by the annual rate beginning upon the summer. There is the lowest number of unchangeable wind this season of any, and equally irregular in the distribution : in fact the variables are much on the increase, and appear to be the principal means of collecting sufficient rain for the seasons, being as it were a gleaning after the regular winds of the great lots of Excess West, and the principle will go on increasing until the single Excess West of 1821, which will concentrate the winds upon a few points, in the same manner as under the first single Excess West and single Defi- ciency East of the year 1803 ; but the condensation will not be near equal to the year of these singles, because the succeeding singles of Excess West and Deficiency East are upon different years. * This alternation of the Excess, from winter to summer, gives the benefit of the Excess and Deficiency of the winds equally to both hemispheres of the glob* of the earth. 130 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [PartllL WINTER 1820. Third Year of the Second Period of Eighteen. D. E. Second of Triple Excess East, and Last of Double Deficiency West. SfTHERLANDSHlRK. Bar. Ther. Great Rains Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Days Snow. A. B. Thun- der. Light ning.' 296 36 13 63 23 57 1 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Raiii Frost. Var. EAST. WEST 19 29 10 76 25 99 122 77 93 Cldy. S7 Clouds 128 Clear. 17 12 23 + 39 + 9 12 CHARACTER. Excess East Deficiency West Very Dry, Very Frosty, Very Clear, Calm. THIS is a most violent change of weather from the last winter, which is a perfect contrast to the present, agreeable to the remark, that one extraordinary season is accompanied by another, though dif- fering in character; but though the intense frost* of this season will he long remembered, the principal singularity is the extraordinary rate of the variables, and consequent low rate of the invariable or un- changeable winds. If the term * (i leaning' was suitable to the state of wind last summer, it is still more so to the present season, the winds being continually veering round the compass, whether in a gentle breeze or a blowing gale; but of this last there were few in- stances, and these of rather short continuance. This extraordinary increase of the variables shews that a change to the contrary is close at hand, which is also indicated by the Cycles of the winds, an explained in the General Viewj for on the succeeding winter the variables will be on the decrease, and the in- variables will be on the increase. * By which it would appear that the frost may be compressed, even When the winds are most variable. Part ///.] WINTER 1820. 131 The frost was intense and continuous in the winter months, but with interruptions at wide intervals, and what is not a little remarkr able in the history of this season, mild weather came after the '23d or' January, at a time in which the frost is usually most vigorous ; there were however occasionally some frost in the course of the spring months, but altogether the weather of this part of the season was unusually fine and dry. The winds were much about the northerly points throughout the season, which accounts for the general clearness prevailing, it could not be otherwise with a continual shifting wind. In the beginning of January an extraordinary rise of the Barometer was observed in many parts of Europe, which attracted general notice; this rise pointed to the very mild weather which subsequently took place in the end of the month, and was particularly so through all Fe- bruarv. The usual mode of explanation of these great elevations ef the Barometer, which supposes it to be a consequence of an ac- cumulation of the atmosphere, is not satisfactory ; it bejng inipps- t-ible that such an accumulation could be general at the same t;;ne. Another perfectly singular feature of this season is, the total ab- sence of great Rains, which however is agreeable tp the state of the wind ; for no sooner d\d rain commence than the wind shifted to other points, and from that again continually varying, and every one knows that a change of wind brings a change of the weather : this circumstance, in combination with the ever varying wind, shews that the process is actually a gleaning of the remains of the weather, which has been in a great measure the same from the commence- ment of the quadruple Deficiency in 13!5; but the Excess of both winds of the succeeding year 1821, will form the beginning of a new order in the mode of arrangement and distribution of all the elements, which will consist in a greater regularity, as observed in the first years committed to the Register, so that the description of the seasons, for a number of yeajs to come, will be less elaborate, or more simple, than of late this return of things is to the author of a similar nature to the renewing of an old acquaintance. It will be an easy matter, under this new state, for all such as observe the weather to detect the sum of wind in particular, as the current will be constant, though generally moderate, and less frequently changing, calms being more rare, excepting on the year Jb22 in which both winds are Deficiency in this year, by the way, is the first attack upon the weather under the current Eighteen year peri- od, since it will have partly the character of a storm. It is singular, that the mid winter of each triple of Excess East should have almost exactly the same low rate of rain; this close correspondence could not happen under the current lot sooner, be- cause the first year is after a double Excess West and quadruple Deficiency, and not after a single Excess West, and single Defi- ciency East, which are the conditions before the first triple Excess East; the other variations under each lot will of course be seen to 132 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par/ 111. depend upon the other conditions being different, especially the com- mencement of the current triple Excess on the summer. This is the first winter under average of days rain from winter of 1814 inclusive ; it could hardly be otherwise with so small a sum ; but in consequence of the previous long continued comminution, it is much more spread upon the season than the quantity of winter 1805, but this last is farther advanced in the Eighteen year period, it being the fifth year, and the lot preceded by the single Excess when the general weather of course is compressed, whereas the present sea- son is in the third year of the period, and before the single Excess West, with the weather in a high state of comminution, which is but in a moderate degree corrected by the Excess East, in as much that the present season is the first of Excess East from winter 1814-, and but very moderately in Excess, and the least effective Excess from the very variable state of the wind. The number of days on which there were calms this season, is 68, and on the average four hours of calm each day, making in all twelve days of calm a list of the days on which the calms prevailed through the whole period of the weather observed, would shew the increasing rate of this state, as in most of the phenomena; but the principle being understood for the present is sufficient other tables also remain to be calculated, which will be given in some subsequent period; which want of time, or rather the delicate state of heahh of the author, will not admit of attempting meanwhile. The frequency of Aurora Boreales this season, is not the least singular phenomenon of the Tabular View ; their appearance was quite regular and of the condensed form observed in the first years of the register from the very great frequency of this interesting object, it might be supposed That a change of some sort was about to take place in this article, as in the state of the winds but this re- mains to be observed. The other articles of the Tabular View may be passed over, as the subject must explain itself at a glance, and moreover the season being so recent, a further description will be unnecessary. The in- dications are a moderately wet summer ; it cannot be very wet, for one extreme after another is not observed to follow directly the consequence of the Excess East, imperfect as it may be said it is, will tend to equalise the temperature of the day and night of the suc- ceeding summers, that is, compared with the preceding summers, consequently there will be a succession of wet and dry through that season, with more cloudiness than of late the variable state of wind must continue through that season also, as in the current, but not in an equal degree, as the summer never equals the winter in variety. The further indications respecting the summer, are given in the ar- ticle Table XII. in the General View, together with the rate of rain fur the winter the other particulars of that season, are, an over average of frost, it being after a moderately wet summer. fart ///.] SUMMER 1820. 138 SUMMER 1820, SUTHERLANDSHIRK. PERTH. EDINBURGH. Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains. Short Rains. Oct. Foggs. A. B. Thun- der. Light. ning. 294 52i 8 25 56 5 10 3 Gales. Windy Calms. Days Rain. Amount Rain. Frost, a. 10 Var. East. West. 3 Cldy. 49 28 10 89 47 102 81 93 Clouds 128 Clear. + 5 + 6 + 10 15 CHARACTER. Excess East, Deficiency West. Above Average Rain, Mild, Calm. THE first two months of this season greatly resembled the corres- ponding months of summer 1817> heavy showers, calm, and cold ; but the remaining part of the season was of the finest and most regu- lar weather, with strong absorbing powers of the air, as usual under Excess East wind : in consequence of which this part of the season, had all the effect of great drought, though every month, July ex- cepted, had above average rain ; but the falls were short and heavy, with very dry intervals ; * the great rains are considerably on the increase, and the short rains as considerable in number these last cannot, it would seem, be much reduced until after the single Ex- cess West of next year, and not immediately thereafter, as this is followed by a single Deficiency East ; they will however be under the general average when the double Excess East of 1823 24 appears: moreover the short rains must abound until the variables are reduced in number, which will be particularly effected under the double Excess East stated. The temperature of the season by the average, is very low con- sidering the warmth by day, a state which it would appear will con- tinue until the more regular weather which succeeds the single Ex- * It is scarcely necessary to offer any remarks 03 to the crops, the season being so recent. J34r HI&TORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par* ///. cess West of next year. This season has the lowest sum of the force of the wind of any in the list, and the same remark is to be made of the sum by the year. The number of cloudy days is the highest by the summers, since the year 1807, while the clear days are but few. Both seasons of this year are Excess East, as observed of the middle year of the former triple Excess: and both seasons are De- ficiency West, which is contrary to the state under the first double Deficiency West observed, that lot having the Deficiency West upon both seasons of the first year of the lot, so that there appear^ a new order of distribution of the winds under the current Eighteen year period. The indications for next winter, are, the Aurora Boreales, * Excess East, and over average rate of rain, shew that the number of frosty clays will be above average, but from the considerable de- cline of the East wind from that of last summer, the frost may be expected to decline in proportion ; also the present summer having considerably above average rain, and the preceding winter being an extreme dry, the succeeding should be at average, and a low aver- age, it being directly after a moderate over average, and relatively after an extreme dry, but the rate of the average depends upon the rate of the succeeding winters, as a pair of wet winters promises to succeed. The variables, as already stated, must be numerous, but on the decrease, the season being under the single Excess NVt^t, which of necessity must make more regular winds. The sum of the force of the wind must be also slightly on the increase from the same cause, especially on the succeeding summer, which will have average rain on account of the Excess East of the present season being considerable : under any other state of the East wind the succeed- ing summers would be very dry, as in 1808. * The beams, or rays of this luminous phenomenon, being always in the same line with the pole of the magnet, and most probably corresponding with tiie dip in other respects, such as the projection, in particular, shew an intimate connection between these principles, (for they can hardly be termed elements,) on which ac- count it would be more correct to give the name of Magnetic Lights' to this first link of its order : it being most probable, that the Northern Lights, and other elec- tric appearances in general, arc to magnetism, what the clouds, and rain, &c. ar<_ ts> the wind, Part III. ] WINTER 1821, 135 WINTER 1821. Fourth Year of tlie Second Period of Eig E. E. Last Year of Triple Excess East, and Single Excess West, Bar. Ther. Great Rains. Modt. Rains Short Rains. Dayst Snow. A. B. Thun- der. Light- ning. 298 40 7 36 4f) 15 26 2 Gales. WindyiCalms. V s iAmount Rain. Rain. Frost. Var. EAST. WEST. 15 40 3 92 49 76 112 80 + 12 98 7 Cldy. 68 Clouds 95 Clear. 18 + 4 + 1 + 16 CHARACTER. Excess East, and Deficiency West Wind; Average Rain, Mild, Cloudy. THE character of this winter appears contrary to the Tabular View, which contains 16 days frost above average, but this is upon the same principle with dry seasons whereon the days rain are similarly above the average ; the frost of the season was commonly slight, but in the number of days corresponding with the previous indication : in ordinary acceptation however, 'this moderation of the frost, after full signs to the contrary, indicates a prevalence of a corresponding degree of cold upon the ensuing summer, but the lo\v average tem- perature of this, and the preceding summer of 1820, is fully ac- counted for by the repeated Excess East of the summers of 1819-20. The quantity of rain is something above the ordinary high aver- age rate, but if the two following winters are above average, as at present indicated, the high average rate of the present season will stand correct ; this explanation is sufficient in the mean time, should, the result prove otherwise, a different one offers. 136 HISTORY OJ THE WEA7HZ*. [Part JIT, The quantity of the wind by days, as determined by the Rule of Three, is in the Tabular View, which fixes the rate of the East for the summer at 60 days and that of the West at 212 days, being the sums that will be required to furnish an over average rate of each for the year, agreeable to the System, but should the quantity of either be less, it will then become necessary to calculate the actual times of the blowing of the winds of each season, which is a possible circum- stance from the high rate of the variables, and the moderate rate of the Excess of each wind. The high rate of the variables shew that the Excess of each wind this year must be low. Owing to this high rate of the variables of the present season, as in the rest of the cur- rent triple Excess, there was but little of the very regular weather of the former triple Excess East observed excepting the rate of the cloudy days, which is remarkable enough'. The compression is otherwise also remarkable, for the moderate rains are almost be- yond example, while the short and great rains are at an under rate. The sum of the force of the winds is the lowest yet observed by the winters, while the number of windy days is on the increase from last winter, owing to the operation of the single Excess West of the year, and the contiriued Excess East. From the rate of the variables continuing so high under the single Excess West, the consequence is not only a moderate Excess of both winds this year, but a probability that the Excess and De- ficiency of the current course of the winds will be also moderate, and that the rate of variables will be decreasing through the whole Eighteen year period, which indicates that no extremity of rain will appear in this course ; this last is supported also by the circumstance of the summer Excess East being on the first years of the lots ot Excess East, instead of the last, as on the first Eighteen year period so that the nature of the irregular weather of the lots of Defici- ency East of the current course, must be different from that observed under the former course, which therefore cannot be known until these lots are on the eve of appearance unless it should Iiappea that correct Journals are found, whereby to find the sum of rain and cold of the years corresponding, in the previous revolution of the Cycle. The indications of the seasons hitherto have been given gene- rally ; in the present an enumeration is made of each, at least such as form the principal characteristics of the weather, as this season concludes the work. Indication I. Of the winds, the rate of each for the ensuing summer, have been stated above in respect of the force, the sum or number of windy days will be about the rate of summer IbOS, for though the quantity of West wind of the ensuing season must be considerably low as compared with that season, the difference as to force, is made up by the season being the last of a triple Excess East, which increases the force in sofne degree. Indication 2. The quantity of rain for the ensuing summed is an average, for the great Excess East on summer 18 Jy, was followed fart III.'] WINTER 1S21. 137 by only a moderate Excess rain summer 1820, consequently the more moderate Excess East of summer 1820, will be followed by a still more moderate quantity of rain summer 1821*, but owing to the single Excess West falling on the summer 1821, the Indication 3. Is, that the number of days rain will be considerably above the average, and Indication 4. That the number of short rains of the season will be above average the great and moderate rains the contrary. Indication 5. The sura of the force of the winds will be on the increase from last summer. Indication 6. A slight increase of the average temperature from last summer. Indication 7. A decrease of the variables from the last summer, and the last to be mentioned in this statement, is Indication 8. An increase of the days partly cloudy and partly clear, from the preceding winter: an indication from each of the particulars in ihe Tabular View might be given at length, but this is rendered unnecessary from the previous explanation of the subject. In concluding this part of the work, it may be mentioned that as the Rules of the Weather for lesser periods than the seasons re- main unknown, the remarks as to the daily weather have been con- sequently but few ; it is deserving of being stated however, that the first appearance or origin of all the phenomena, excepting the Au- rorce Boreales, (which by consequence connect the magnetism and, the weather) is within the tropics ; where the winds of course have their point of commencement, where it is observed in greatest force, and where the rains are most concentrated, or in the heaviest falls, and in the greatest quantity : from this point each of the elements spread North and South in pulsations or quantities of more or less, and with the advance towards the poles, becoming more and more comminuted, and reduced in quantity; the heat at the same time decreasing, and the cold increasing with the increase of the lati- tudes. In other words, 'there is a pulsation of continual accumula- tion, or progressive movement of the atmosphere from the poles to the line, by virtue of the rotatory motion of the globe, together with the combined attraction of the solar and lunar bodies -and the return or re-action is on the surface of the earth as stated. Hence, the changes of the weather first appears in the South of Europe ; and even in the British Islands, the wind, rain, cold, heat, &c. ar& experienced in England some days, before corresponding changes are observed in Scotland ; for the march of the weather is almost uniformly from South to North in Northern latitudes, whatever be the direction of the winds on the surface of the ground. Consequently the drought must occasionally b inconreivient to the .Agricul- turist, &c. 138 HISTCUIY O? THE WZATHE3. [Part III. THE Work on the CYCLE commenced printing on the 15th day of March, and was concluded with this present sheet, containing the season of winter of 1821, on the Slst day of May the weather of this month is therefore subjoined in a tabular and descriptive statement. MAY 1821. Bar. Ther. Moderate Rains. Short Rains, High Winds. Windy. Frost. A. B. 2G9 47 2 15 3 10 10 1 Thunder. Days' Rain. Sum Rain. Cloudy. Clear. EAST. WEST Var. 2 17 si 4 1 7 8 16 The weather of this month agrees in all aspects with the descrip- tion of May and June of the year 1767, (the corresponding year of the previous revolution of the Cycle) as mentioned in the Magazines. The average temperature at 8 A. M. is the lowest of ail the months of May of the mild summers see list of averages, Part II. : and even the maximum or average of greatest heat, which is but .53 is considerably lower than the mean of the sarn-3 month on all the mild summers; though there was a greater proportion of sunshine than usual, in consequence of the variable winds and little rain. The quantity of rain for the month is moderate, while the num- ber of short or slight rains is much above the ordinary rate, as is also the number of windy days, though May on the average is the least windy of all the months, which are all agreeable to the indi- cations furnished by the previous weather, and the state of the an- nual winds. The propriety of the single Excess West coming upon the sum- mer of the last year of the triple Excess East, must now be abun- dantly apparent. P, S. The account of the System published in 1818 has been considered as not properly explained, which arose partly from the complex nature of the subject, and partly from other causes not necessary to be stated ; yet it may not be improper to mention, that with all the labour and experience of now nearly five years from the commencement of the discoveries, which has been devoted to the formation of the best disposition or arrangement, it will be found still generally difficult, at least in the first instance : but the difficulty cannot, it is presumed, be now charged to this department of the work, though doubtless the explanation may be susceptible of farther improvement, for the arrangement adopted having arisen naturally from the subject, and having detected every propeity or principle belong- ing to the science, must of course be deemed perfect, there being none other pos-; sible wherewith to accomplish the same thing it could not indeed be expected, though the Author was not fully aware of the circumstance at the first publication, that the most important and most interesting discovery ever made would be equally easy of being understood with the ordinary norelties of the day, THE WEATHER, FIRST EIGHTEEN YEAR PERIOD. A SHORT summary of the weather, from the History, is given, ori account of the advantage of a still more general view of the subject, which naturally falls to be distinguished by mild and cold summers. FIRST MILD COURSE. From Winter 1801 to 1803, inclusive. Six YEARS. THOUGH summer 1802 was irregular, and at times slightly cold ; this mild period properly commenced with 1801, nor was the cold of the severe seasons of summers 1799 and 1800, remarkable ; but there being no other rules accurately known for these years, ex- cepting the mere annual state of the winds, these years and seasons ma}', for the present, be left out of the question. The period stated included a wet year, the 180i, but being mild it did not alter or derange the character of the seasons mentioned. An inspection of the tables shev that this mild course exceeded in duration any of the succeeding within the Eighteen year period ; and the first mild course of every period is always the longest, it being after the longest course of cold and irregular weather, the cause of which has been so often stated, that it is unnecessary to re- peat it here. Though the weather of this period was exceedingly regular, par- ticularly in the years observed, it is worthy of remark that there xvcre more cloudy da\s in it than in any of the succeeding courses, while there was at the same time more clear days, the clouds being most generally of the order denominated * Cumulo Stratus,' of very great extent, and passing slowly in dense sheets for days together without breaking : but the frequent high winds which succeeded under the quadruple Excess, with the quick repe- tition of the stormy and cold years, began to break these masses, and to comminute them gradually into smaller pieces, which, at the same time, appeared under different characters, especially the ' Cumu- 140 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. [Par/ 777; lus,' * Nimbus' and ' Cirro Stratus' of Journalists, until at last scarce a cloud was to be seen, especially under the quadruple Deficiency, which obscured the sky for more than a very few hours ; but these in con- Sequence, became unusually numerous^ and occasioned a great gene- ral obscurity. This revolution took many years in accomplishing, as may be seen by the table of cloudy and clear days. The cause of the uncommon mildness of this course, (not that the summers were very warm,) appears to be, owing to the series of Excess West, being wholly exhausted before the coming of the triple Excess East, and that this, and the other lots of Excess East in the period, were principally distributed upon the winters; and the same cause accounts for the uncommon compressed state of the elements ; for there succeeds eight years of Excess West, (with the exception of the Deficiency West of 1810,) which again caused an extreme comminution, agreeable to the rules of shorter periods, in which one extreme is observed to come before another. lRST COLD PERIOD, AND STOHJVt. The Cold Period from Summer 1806 to Winter 1808, inclusive Two YEARS. " The Storm from Winter 1807 to I80S, inclu- sive. EIGHTEEN MONTHS. 1^ consequence of the long continuance of favourable wind and weather preceding these courses, the cold came on imperceptibly in the summer of 1SOG, in a season of the utmost regularity of the weather. The cold made its appearance after the first winter of Excess West, which is the last winter of the first mild course, and is the first exchange of the winds ; the cold was however very mode- rate, and the summer being very regular and dry, it did not excite particular notice, but the temperature at night, and at 8 A. M. was sensibly below the average of mild summers. The storm which appears always connected with a cold course, one way or another, did not commence until the next season after the cold, and in consequence, or partly so, was curtailed by a sea- son shorter than usual, and both terminated with winter 1808. Hence appears the imperative nature of the cold periods, which it seems must not exceed two years, for this is the utmost extent ob- served under all the possible lots of Deficiency East, and Excess West, arranged in a manner the most powerful in eliciting the cold in point of duration. SECOND MILD COURSE. From Summer 1808 to Summer 1810, ind. Two YEARS & A HALF, THE high winds increased greatly on the concluding season of the former period, and continued through the whole of the present, which comprehend three summers in succession, two of which were dry, and the last average. By the average of unchangeable winds, Part ///.] SUMMARY. HI Deficiency in all the points begin to appear in this. course, but the gq ural run is Excess. SECOND COLD PERIOD, AND STORM. From Winter 1811 to Summer 1812, inclusive. Two YEARS. THE frequent high winds of the former course, continued in the whole of this. Both the cold and storm of this period were of a mo- derate character, from the circumstance of having set out and ter- minating together, as hy this means the whole of the cold and storm were evenly distributed upon the two years. In this storm, by the average of unchangeable winds, there is Deficiency in all the cardi- nal points* THIRD MILD COURSE. Ffom Winter 1813 to Summer 1815, inclusive, and includes Jirst year of t lie third Storm. THREE YEARS. Tins course differed much from the preceding mild courses, it having had one frosty winter, and two moderately wet summers, which shews an increase of the frost, and that the weight ot rain which commonly fell upon the winters hitherto, is now thrown upon the summers, owing to the general change of the East wind from Excess to Deficiency. The most singular circumstance in this period, is the state of the wind and the weather of the first year. l>y the average of unchangeable winds, it is this year Excess in all the cardinal points, while on the immediate years before and after, the same are Deficiency. This year (the 1813) has been noticed elsewhere, as being very regular weather, and the number of the va- riable days, wind, by all the tables, is among the lowest in the list, which corroborates the observation that the most regular winds make the most regular weather. The last year (1815) is the first of the third storm, mild, and the summer moderately wet ; the first summer of every storm being always more or less wet, and likewise the first summer of a cold, period, if combined with the storm. The high winds began to re- mit in this last year, and the indolence of this element in the re- maining part of the storm, and cold period, which belong to the next course, was the cause of distressing effects. THIRD COLD PERIOD. From' Winter 1816 to Summer 1817, inclusive, and including last year of the third Storm. Two YEARS. FROM the singular revolution of the cold periods with the storms, one year of the third and last storm is in the former course, and the other in the present period ; the cold combining in the progress of the storm, as in the first change of the weather, the storm combin- ed, or fell in with the cold after part of its course was over, while T }r2 HISTOUi" OF T11E WEATHER. \_PariIlL in the middle, or second change, both set out together, and termi- nated together, of course ; hence, in the supposition that the an- nual System was not discovered, ic might be calculated when either the cold or storm appeared again ; and as neither can appear by itself, it is evident, the conjunction could not take place until a cer- tain number of years of mild weather pa=.sed over; and as the storms returned every fourth year, and the cold periods every fifth year, con- sequently at the time the fourth storm should appear, which by this Supposition ought to be on winter 1;-, l'J> the cold period could not come in contact, because it should commence in lb!2!, which is the tilth year from 1816. Hut this mode of reasoning, though it shews that the next change and combination must be distant, cannot determine the true time of appearance of the next course of cold and storm this only can be known from the System of the winds, wherein the double Deficiency East appears on the 1825, which consequently will have the first storm and cold course But it is not a little re- markable, that the supposed years of the next storm and cold, viz. the 1819 and 1822 have something analogous, the last especially, on which there is a modified kind of change, or rather wet summer, if not slightly cold ? Lut to return, the storm terminated soon after the commencement of 18 17, having continued a trifle over the two years, owing to the combination stated, the cold continued for ano- ther year, and terminated with summer 1S17, which completed the period of two years of cold, as usual. Though the storm of 1807 is shortened by the cold appearing first, it is on the contrary length- ened when the cold combines in its progress, which is very natural. By this and preceding statements, an entire revolution has taken place in the first Eighteen year period, among the cold periods, storms, arid winter Excess West wind, which have all combined and revolved upon one another in all possible ways : and under this pro- cess one complete course of all the series of the lots of the wind took place ; so that a certain set of changes of the weather may be expected under every course of the series of lots of the wind, or as previously stated, on every Eighteen year period. In the firs^ 'change and combination in 1806 under the quadruple Excess, the Excess West appeared first on the winter, then on the summer im- mediately after, the cold, and in the season succeeding under the first year of the double Deficiency, the storm. In the second change of 181J, under the triple Deficiency East and triple Excess West, the cold and storm commenced and terminated together ; the Excess West appearing on the winter of the last year of the combined storm and cold, more in quantity and more vigorous than on the former occasion. Jn the third change of 1815 the storm took the Jead, the cold combining in its course in the last year, and the Ex- cess West did not appear until the storm was quite done, and the cold period half its course over : for on the last winter of the cold course, the Excess West (of the double Excess) appeared, and in, greater frequency than any of the former Excesses ; so that every Part ///.] SUMMARY. 143 possible combination took place between all these series of appear- ances which the annual arrangement of the winds admitted, being one course of Deficiency East and of Excess West in a certain order, together with a peculiar determinate order of the Excess East and Deficiency West, which completes a course of wind and weather of bne of the Eighteen year periods : And as the last Jot of Deficiency East, or the quadruple, is always opposed by a double Excess West* consequently every course, or Eighteen year period, contains a repe- tition of all the storms, cold summers, and Excess* and Deficiency ot the winds, which have been mentioned as observed in the first period; but in the others differently operating according to the different dis- position of the lots: therefore as the storms, and cold summers depend especially upon the lots of Deficiency East, there will be no change of the description stated, uritil the succeeding double Deficiency East of the 1825 26, but particularly the former year, which is much under the same conditions with the 1807, the year 1824- re- sembling the 1806. But as cold of some description must appear irt the seven years which intervene from the last cold summer of 1817, it is to be inferred, that regular frosty, snowy winters, will prevail in this time, which is rendered the more likely by the storms of the remainder of the Cycle having generally wider intervals of regular weather between each, than has been observed from the )S07to 1817, inclusive and moreover, the lots of Excess East in the second Eighteen year period especially, generally commence with the Ex- cess upon the summers, which augment the frost of the following in proportion. Second Eighteen Year Period* FIRST MILD COURSE. From Winter 1818 to Summer 182t, inchtsrcc. SVEN THIS period is long in proportion to the unfavourable circuits Stances at and before the commencement the general cold state of the atmosphere consequent Upon the low rate of the East wind, the repeated cold summers, and rather frosty winters which preced- ed, from which the mean temperature of the first summers of this period is low. The compression of the elements in this mild course is by no means equal to the degree observed in the commencement of the former Eighteen year period ; and one of the reasons is, that the succeeding quadruple Excess is followed by a triple Deficiency, 144 HISTORY OF THE WEATHER. Part III. eo that the windy weather is interrupted sooner than in the former period, and the rate of increasing compression in the current period is consequently retarded, as compared to the rate on the former, there being not the same necessity for an equally compressed state on the latter. In the spring of 1821 the warm weather clouds (termed by Jour- nalists the ' Cirro Cumulus'} began to appear, but not equally well defined as in established regular weather: the last appearance of these clouds in 1815 was similar in many respects so that the cha- racteristics of the appearance, in this and all things, have a relation to the time, or age, duration, and perfection of the condition. NOTE. While the current mild course is agreeable to the rule deduced from the System of the Weather, and consequently confirming the truth of the discovery, yet this, in the estimation of many, is but little regarded, the attention being di- rected rather to weather of a contrary description ; and hence it is thought that if a remarkable bai! year, or years, were observed to agree with the System, the proof would be complete, as if the exception established the rule ! a mode of reasoning which no doubt must be founded in the nature of things, since the impression ap- pears so general, and since the author was induced to re-commence the calculation of the weather in consequence of the severe summer of 1816. Yet, in strict pro- priety, the one correspondence is as much a proof of the certainty of the discovery as the other, for both equally belong to the subject, but ordinary, or regular weather, being the most common, is regarded as a matter of course. Arid it happens als>o, that an extremity of weather is at a considerable distance as to time, as explained, which, however favourable in the meanwhile to the comforts of society, has tlii- effect of lessening the public curiosity on the subject of the newly important very of the Cycle of the Weather. iv. MACHINERY OF THE WINBS. PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS. JL HE principal properties and arrangement of the Cycles of Aver- ages of the Wind* having been stated in the introductory part of the work, a short account follows under the present head of the position of the lots and series of lots, in regard to one another, in ihe order of succession and of opposition, and thereafter by a more minute detail of the la\vs of distribution of the annual lots upon the seasons; or, as it has been elsewhere denominated, ' The System by Seasons,' and the effect of each lot upon the weather, with ge- neral remarks. The first singularity which Journalist observed on the construc- tion of the Annual Hate Table, was the alternate order of the Ex- cess East in lots, and being in series ; the lots of Deficiency inter- vening between the lots of Excess next surprised, being in a regu- larly increasing order : For first, there appeared one year of Defi- ciency, then after a lot of Excess fivo years of Deficiency, after another lot of Excess v three years of Deficiency; and after 'the last lot of Excess, (the single) there stood two Deficiency, which com- pleted the fourteen years then observed : and from the state of the wind and weather by seasons, and the winter East wind being at a very low rate, together with the weather being uncommonly irre- gular and severe, it appeared as most probable that there would be in this unfinished lot,ybM/ - years together of Deficiency : this sup- position was further confirmed on observing the state of the averages uf the West wind, for the letters E and D were attached ro the sums of Over and Under Average at the moment of constructing the Table: in this wind, with the exception of the first, (the single Excess at top of the list) the lots of Excess beginningwitb /Mr y~ars, then tliree years, and coniinuing the hint r ceived, followed out with /a-*?, and then with one Excess : after this there seemed nodif- * The wind has been termed the first principle in '...e weather, hut there is rea- son to believe that the magnetism of .he Karl' is a link in the chain of opttatioo iu this department still nearer the un:; n 1 ca J\.'e/y/, may i.ct the magnetism of the North aud South, be to each other as the Jtkist i to the We.t win J ? H6 MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. [PltrilVi ficulty in ascertaining the order of the Deficiency West ; for first appeared two Deficiency* then one, and after, three Deficiency, con- tinuing thus all the lots and series of lots in the order given, until the 55th year was observed to bfe the same with the first, as already mentioned. The discovery of this arrangement of the lots, and the drawing up of the Cycle, was the work of an instant, which seemed as if under the influence of magic. Some days of relaxation were necessary to recover sufficient steadiness to proceed with the calcu- lations, the surprise and satisfaction being extreme. The Deficiency West afforded at the time the strongest proof of the correctness of the'calculations, and of the whole Cycle, be- cause the last lot of a series, and the first lot of a series were in- cluded in the table of fourteen years ; and the strength and order of this series, established at once the extent of the other series, which were only in part comprehended in the table, with the ex- ception of the Excess East; but on a further acquaintance there remained not the least possible doubt of the correctness of the whole discovery. It has been mentioned, that the Excess and Deficiency comes out strongest on the first of November, and grows weaker as the .calculation recedes or advances from this day ; that is, about the l!5th October* and the 6th of November, the smaller Excess and Deficiency begin to disappear, and if the calculation is made at a still greater distance from the point stated, the result is a confus- ed mixture of Excess and Deficiency, together with the stronger Excess and Deficiency of the Cycle, which continue to appear at a considerable distance from this point ; so that the whole forms a mass of E's and D's without any order in the arrangement ; and, it is the same confused list by calcUluting from any other time of the year, which is a result just such as might be expected by the sums deriv- ed from parts of different years beinjj added together: but the wea- ther year at once gives the regular Excess and Deficiency. Ilence^ the inference is, that the elements were originally set in motion about the first day of November that chronologers should have been so near this point when determining the a?ra of creation is truly sur- prising.* In the Cycle or System of the weather, the East wind has al- ways the first place, for the several reasons mentioned; it is entitl- ed to this distinction on another account that it may have been, * The lowest Excess East is 143 days, and the highest Deficiency of the same wind is 134 days ; so that there is a range of 8 days between the Excess and De- ficiency of the East wind. The lowest Excess West is 218 days, and the highest Deficiency is 205 days, which leave a range of 1 2 days for the West wind ; the Weakest and least frequent wind having tiie least range, because there is the less danger of this wind exceeding the bounds ; and the contrary of the other wind. It is" truly remarkable, that the sums of these ranges arc to each other exactly as the sum of the one wind is to the other ; that is, the range of the West wind is erne- half greater than the range of the East* IV. .] PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS. 147 or still is, the first wind ; and that the East wind is all that appears necessary to produce a West wind, which is possibly no more than the return of the East wind, after becoming softened and expanded by being longer in circulation, in the proportion of 3 to 2, which is the comparative rate of the sum in direction and force of each wind. The Cycle not only gives the state of the wind and weather of all times past and to come, but it is also omnipresent, being the same everywhere: why it is of the peculiar form discovered, is no doubt for the very best of reasons, being that which admits most conveniently the greatest sum of vegetable life over the whole globe : for had the lots been larger, inconvenient extremities would have been continually recurring ; and had they been smaller the variety would have been too limited for the extept of the surface of the Earth. The most surprising circumstance in the weather, is the fact of the System being derived from the Sum of the Direction of the Winds, whereas this result would be looked for from the sum of the; force ; but there is not even an approximation between this last and the other, for on the first years of long lots of Excess West in par- ticular, the sum of the force is very low, and on the first years of long lots of Deficiency, the contrary : or any lot of Deficiency which comes after a long lot of Excess, is above the average rate in the sum of the force. ORDER OF SUCCESSION Of tlie Series of Lots of Excess and Deficiency. IN stating the order of succession of the series of lots, the high- est lot is first mentioned, at whatever part of the Cycle it begins, and whether the process or movement is backward or forward; but as one of the series begins with unit, and all the rest with the highest number, the strength or years of the first lot of each series is parti- cularised, and the progressive or retrogadc motion of each in the Cycle. EXCESS EAST. Beginning at a certain part of the Cycle, the first triple Excess East comes after a quadruple Deficiency : see the triple Excess of the 19 20 21 years. Second triple Excess East comes njtcr a triple Deficiency; see the next triple in succession. Third triple Excess East comes after a double Deficiency: see the next triple in suc- cession. Fourth triple Excess East comes after a single Deficiency : see the four triples in succession, which complete a Cycle ; and so on the same round continually and progressively. Again, the triple Excess East comes before a quadruple Defi- ciency, beginning a series after the first above mentioned ; next, the l-i-8 MACHIKLRY OF THE WINDS. \_Parl IV. triple Excess comes before a triple Deficiency ; then before a double Deficiency ; lastly, before a single Deficiency; and so on, this order is progressive in the Cycle. The double Excess East (succeeding the triple Excess, which comes before the quadruple Deficiency) comes after a qua- druple Deficiency, (of course) ; next, the double Excess comes after a triple Deficiency, then after a double; lastly, after a single, and so on progressively- The double Excess East of the next series to the prrcedingr, comes before a quadruple Deficiency ; succeeding series, it conies before a triple ; then before a double, single, and so on progressively. The single Excess East which succeeds the first double Excess last mentioned, comes after a quadruple Deficiency, next single Excess after a triple Deficiency ; the single succeeding comes after a double Deficiency, and the last single Excess of a Cycle, after a single Deficiency, and so on progressively. The single Excess East just opposite to the lost mentioned, in the figure of the Cycle, comes before a quadruple Deficiency, the next single before a triple, then double, single, and so on pro- gressively. All these lots, and series of lots, may be read in reverse, as, the triple Excess East is preceded by a single Deficiency ; next preceded by a double Deficiency ; then preceded by a triple ; last- ly, by a quadruple : and so on in a retrograde motion. DEFICIENCY EAST. THE lots of this series run thus: the single Deficiency comes after a triple Excess, then after a double, single, and so on pro- gressively. The Double Deficiency East, the same. The Triple Deficiency East, the same. The Quadruple Deficiency East, the same : each beginning a series before the other, but the succession is in a progresshe move- ment. The lots of Deficiency East come before the same order of Ex- cess, but beginning at a different part of the Cycle ; or a series be- fore the former, and is progressive. EXCESS WEST. A few examples of the order of succession of the lots of Excess West, areas follow: The Quadruple Excess follows a declining series of Deficiency; thus, a quadruple comes after a triple Defi- ciency ; next, it comes after a double Deficiency ; lastly, after a single, and so on progressively. The double Excess West comes after a triple Deficiency begin- ning a series before the last stated, ; then after a double, single, and so on. Part IV.~\ ORDER OF SUCCESSION, &c. 119 The preceding paragraph is to be read thus:-.- The triple Excess West comes after a triple Deficiency, beginning a series before the former ; then after a double, single, and so on. The double Excess West conies after a triple Deficiency, begin- ning a series before the last stated ; then after a double, single, and so on. The single Excess West comes after the same order of Defi- ciency; beginning a series before the last referred to. The quadruple Excess comes before a triple Deficiency; this or- der beginning with the series before the quadruple Excess which comes after the triple Deficiency : and the same of the triple, double, iatid single Excess, progressively. DEFICIENCY WEST. THE triple Deficiency West comes after a quadruple Excess ; riext after a triple Excess ; and so on : this order is retrograde ; the progressive is this The triple Deficiency comes after a single Ex- cess, next after a double, then after a triple, quadruple, &c. Ano- ther and progressive order is A triple Deficiency conies after a quadruple Excess ; then, the double Deficiency comes after a qua- druple ; then the single Deficiency comes after a quadruple Excess, and so on. It is unnecessary to state further examples of the regu- larity with which the lots, and series of lots succeed and alternate with each other : and it appears that all possible combination takes place between all the lots of Excess and Deficiency in each wind, in a revolution of the Cycle; so that all possible weather appears in the same time. This contact of all the lots of each wind is truly wonderful, since it is by the surface all bodies operate upon each other, as shewn by the weather itself, which is the result of the joint Action of the surface of the earth and atmosphere. ORDER OF OPPOSITION Of the Series of Lots of Excess and Deficiency t and of the Disposition of the Singles. OF THE EXCESS EAST. THE first triple Excess East of the A. D. 180i 5 6, of the 4th, 5th and 6th years of the Cycle, is opposed by a double Defi- ciency West, and first of a quadruple Excess. The second triple Excess East, years 19 20 -21, also by a double Deficiency, and a single Excess. The third triple of the 3! 32 33, by the two last of a triple Excess West, and first of A double Deficiency West. And the fourth triple, years 41 45 46, by the two last of a qua- u 150 MACHINERY Of THE W1KDS. [Part IV. druple Excess, and first of a double Deficiency West. The triple Excess East is but once opposed by a single, which is Excess ; and is opposed twice in succession by the whole of a double Deficiency West, and the two next in succession by the first of a double De- ficiency West, which is opposed to the last of the triple Excess. The first double Excess East, years 9 and 10 of the Cycle, is opposed l>y the last of quadruple Excess, and single Deficiency. The second, years 23 and 24, the double Excess East is opposed by the two first of a quadruple Excess. The third double Excess East, years 38 and 39, is opposed by a single Excess, and first of a triple Deficiency. And the fourth double Excess East, years 50 and 51, by the last of a triple Excess, and single Deficiency West. Thus, the double Excess of East is three times out of the four opposed by singles, two of which are Excess, and two Deficiency, of the West wind of course. The first single Excess East, year 14, is opposed by the first of a triple Deficiency. The second single Excess East, year I z7, pre- cisely the same. The third and fourth singles of Excess East, year 4-1, and year 2 of the Cycles, are opposed by the last of a triple Deficiency a change of position which entirely alters the properties or powers of these singles. The single Excess East ia never opposed by another single. The number of singles opposed to the series of Excess East are four, of which two are Excess, and two Deficiency, West wind. OF THE DEFICIENCY EAST. THIS series is in an increasing ratio, while all the others are de- creasing. The first lot of Deficiency East is a single, year 3, and is opposed by a single Excess, end the only instance of the kind. The second single Deficiency, year 22, is opposed by a single De- ficiency. The third single, jear 40, is opposed by the middle num- ber or year of triple Deficiency West. Thus, the single Deficiency East is twice opposed by singles, one of which is Excess, and the other Deficiency, West wind. The double Deficiency East is alwaj's wholly opposed to the qua- druple Excess. The first double Deficiency, years 7 and 8, is op- posed to the two middle numbers of the quadruple Excess. Second double Deficiency, years 25 and 26, opposed to the two last of the quadruple. Third double Deficiency, years 42 and 43, opposed to the two first of the quadruple Excess. a and liO, by the two last of a triple Deficiency, and first of a tripU Excess West. Third triple Deficiency, years 47, 48, and 49, by the last of a double Deficiency, and two first of a triple Excess. Thia lot is never opposed by a single. The quadruple Deficiency East is always opposed by the whole of a Part IV.] ORDER OF OPPOSITION, &c. 151 double Excess. In the first instance, years 15, 16, 17, and 18, it is opposed by the two last of a triple Deficiency, and a double Ex- cess. In the second instance, years 34, 35, 36, and 37, it is op- posed by the last of a double Deficiency, a double Excess, and single Deficiency. In the third instance, years 52, 53, 54-, and 1, as usual, by a double Excess, and two first of a triple Deficiency. Thus, the quadruple Deficiency is on one occasion opposed by a single, which is Deficiency ; and corresponds with fhe triple Excess East in admitting the opposition of a single Excess, once. OF THE EXCESS WEST.. THE quadruple Excess is never opposed by a quadruple, triple, or single Deficiency East, but is always opposed by the whold of a double Deficiency East, either at the beginning, middle, or end. First, the quadruple Excess, of the years 6, 7, 8 and 9, is opposed by the latt of a triple Excess East, a double Deficiency, and first of a double Excess. Second quadruple, years 23, 24-, 25 and 26, js oppo>ed by a double Excess, and a double Deficiency. Third and iast quadruple, years 4-2, 4-3, 44 and 4-5, by a double Deficiency, and two first of a triple Excess. The triple Excess West is never opposed by a quadruple, a double, or single Deficiency of East. It is opposed by a triole De- ficiency, as in years 11, 12 and 13, or a triple Deficiency, and tri- ple Excess combined as in 30, 31 and 32, or a triple Deficiency jind double Excess as in 48, 49 and 50. The double Excess West always opposes a quadruple Deficiency, either at the beginning, middle, or end ; and what is remarkable, it has never the assistance of any other Excess, against such an host of Deficiency, being always preceded and followed by Deficiency of course : and in the same manner that the double Deficiency East in opposing the quadruple Excess, has never the assistance of any other Deficiency, it being always preceded and followed by Excess of course : but un|ike the doubte Deficiency East, the double Excess West admits of the support of a single on one occasion, which is Deficiency, and on the other side is only a double Deficiency, whereas in all the other positions it is accompanied by a triple De- ficiency. See year 37 of the Cycle. Thus, the Quadruple Excess is opposed by one-half of Deficiency, and the other half of Excess: and the quadruple Deficiency, opposed by one-half of Excess, and the other half of Deficiency, at each time; while there is a sort of inequality in the opposition of the smaller lots, which is only equalised in a whole course or revolution of the Cycle : and hence may be seen why the weather intervening be- tween the quadruples of Excess and Deficiency, is something of an irregular cast, while the general weather of one quadruple is re- versed upon the next. The single Excess West is first, and only once opposed by ano- 152 MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. [Part IV. tber single, which is Deficiency See year 3. In the next appear- ance 21, it is opposed by the last of a triple Excess East : and last- ly, .'18, by the first of a double Excess East. Jt is odd enough that the singles in general hre allowed as it were to play among them- selves, as if unfit for higher powers. But the singles come into con- tact more frequently, because one series begins as the other ends, and three of these end with a single, and one begins with a single. When singles are combined, or together, they are confined to one season of the year, the larger lots preceding or following, extend- ing to the other season, as if to cement the system : but when a single comes alone, its power is extended, or equal to a larger lot - See the Excess East of winter 1803, and the Excess East summer 1822, each being in an opposite state to the annual wind. Thus, the u hole series of lots of Excess West, collectively arid individually, is but once opposed by a single, which is a Deficiency, year 3. OF THE DEFICIENCY WEST. THE first triple Deficiency West, years H, 15 and 16, is oppos- ed by a single Excess East, and part of a Quadruple Deficiency. The second triple Deficiency, years 27, 28 and 29, by a single Ex- cess Ea f ^t, and part of a triple Deficiency. The third triple, 39, 40 and 4-1, by part of a double Excess East, a single Deficiency, and a single Excess East, (the weather of this triple Deficiency "West must be very strange !) And in the fourth instance, years 54*, 1 and 2, it is opposed by part of a quadruple Deficiency, and a single Excess East. Thus, the triple Deficiency West is always opposed by a single Excess East, and once in addition by a single Deficiency. The double Deficiency West in the first instance, years 4 and 5, is opposed by the two first years of a triple Excess East. In the se- cond instance, 10 and 20 the same. In the third, 33 and 34, it is opposed by the last of a triple Excess,' and first of a quadruple De- ficiency And in the fourth, 46 and 47 by the last of a triple Ex- cess, as before, and fir^t of a triple Deficiency. This lot is never opposed by any of the singles or doubles, being devoted as it were to the triple Excess East ; these two lots always opposing each, other, as s observed of the great Jots of quadruple Excess and Deficiency, and the doubles of Excess and Deficiency, though not with the same precision. The same disposition is observed between, the triple Deficiency East and the triple Excess West ; or in other words, the triple Excess East, and double Deficiency West ; the triple Deficiency East, and triple Excess We.*t, are each set al- ways in contact : hence the weather of the triple Excess East is reversed under the triple Deficiency, as in the quadruples. The single Deficiency West, year 10, is opposed by one of a double Excess East. In the year 22 by a single Deficiency: year 3% by the last of a quadruple Deficiency : and lastly, year 51 by thq Part IV.~\ OPPOSITION OF THE LOTS. 153 last of a double Excess East, as at first. The single Deficiency West is once opposed by a single, which is Deficiency ; in this re- spect resembling the single Excess West, which is only once oppos- ed by a single, and, like the one in point, is a Deficiency. The whole series of Deficiency West is six times opposed by singles, of which four are Excess, and two Deficiency. SUMMARY OF THE DISPOSITION OF THE SINGLES* Excess East opposed four times Two Excess and Two Deficiency, West Deficiency East three times Two Deficiency and One Excess, West THUS, one half the singles is opposed to the East wind series of lots. Excess West opposed once by a single, which is Deficiency, East. Deficiency West opposed six times Four Excess, and Two Deficiency, East. The singles opposed to the East, are Three Excess, and P'our Deficiency ; and the singles opposed to the West, are Four Excei -, and Three Deficiency. See the System of the Lots. DISTRIBUTION Of the Annual Series of Lots of the Wind upon the Seasons. OF THE EXCESS EAST. THE first lot of this series begins on the second year of observa- tion, or fourth year of the Cycle, and is of the highest number, be- ing a lot of three years, or a triple Excess East. The increase occasioned by this lot, commenced on the winter of the preceding year, in consequence of the singles of that year, and is a high Excess : this Excess is partly owing to the single Excess East of the second year it is ascribed to both these Jots for the present, until the rules, or properties of the lots of the wind are better known. In the first year of the triple Excess East, tlr. cess is upon the winter likewise, and much increased, being the highest rate of East wind upon any season, probably in the C with almost an average rate upon the summer succeeding. !n the second year of triple Excess, there is an Excess upon both seasons, diminished upon the winter, and but sensible upon the summer. In the third and last year of the triple Excess East, the Exc wholly upon the summer, and considerable ; the winter having De- ficiency East and Excess West, there being an Excess West for the year, as well as an Excess Vast : for when there is a. 1 Excess of both grinds for the year, one of the seasons has an Excess of one 154 MACHINERY OF THE WIND. [Par/ IV. and the other season an Excess of the othe"r wind. Thus, the East wind shifts gradually from the winters to the summer?, or revolve upon the seasons; the West taking the place of the East wind in the winters, a change that led to a long storm. , In the year following the triple Excess East, which is one of De- ficiency ; (see year 7) there is still a small Excess East on the summer, but rendered inert, as on the second summer of the triple Excess East, there being an Excess West present at the same time these three summers of more or less Excess East, shew the tendency of the East wind of the triple Excess under different cir- cumstances of the other lots of the annual wind. Thus, the three years of Excess East operate by seasons upon a year before, and a year after the lot, commencing with Excess upon the winters, and terminating with Excess upon the summers; (an ex- tension which is wholly owjng to the slenderness of the lots of De- ficiency which preceded and followed,) altogether including five years, being three seasons of winter, and three seasons of summer in Excess in succession, respectively ; the middle year havinjr an Excess upon both seasons ; resembling exactly, as far as an inferio- rity in number, or power would admit, the operation of the quadru- ple Excess West, as will presently appear, both being the highest lots of their class. The triple Excess East made a complete round upon the seasons, though comparatively slow, and is followed by a a year in which both seasons are Deficiency East (>ee year 8.) After which the same process begins again by the operation of the succeeding lot of Excess East, which is a double, with a difference proportionable to the strength of the lot, and the circumstances which precede, oppose, and follow. The next lot, as mentioned, and succeeding the triple Exces, is the double Excess East. It begins also in the winter in Excess, (see year 9.) But as this lot is more limited, and especially being followed by three years of Deficiency, the Excess docs not extend to the winter before the lot, as in the case of the triple Excess; but commences directly at a high rate with the first winter of the first year of Excess, and is the most sudden and extensive increase of the East wind in the period of weather observed; on the summer after there is a Deficiency of East wind, and Excess West, this be- ing a year on which there is an Excess of both winds. In the se- cond winter and last year of the double Excess East, there is an Excess East, but greatly diminished, and the following summer has great Excess. This change of the wind from Excess in the winter, to Excess in the summer, like the former course of the same kind under the triple Excess East, induced, or led to a long storm ; but owing to the quick revolution of the East wind of this lot from win- ter to summer, the change is of a moderate character. The Excess continued upon the third winter (year 1 1 ) at the same low rate as on the former winter, with a Deficiency upon the summer after ; both which seasons are in the first year of the lot of Deficiency which Part IV."] DISTRIBUTION OF THE LOT*. 155 succeeds the lot of double Excess East. The fourth winter appears with Deficiency East, but a great Excess upon the summer follow- ing, 1 which is the second year of Deficiency by the annual rate, and introduced a partial change: it is partial because it is under the same lot of Deficiency under which a change had already taken place, and immediately after the double Excess East. It is proba- ble that the moderate character of this change is partly owing to the other change mentioned, the one following so quick after the other. A full account of the cause of limitation of the first change is given in the History of the Weather. See the wet mild summer of the year 13, and the frosty winter which followed. As the lots of Excess East decrease in power or number, and the lots of Deficiency increase, the former extends in proportion into the latter, that is, there is one season of Excess East on every year of Deficiency un- til the last year of the lot of Deficiency, when both seasons are Deficiency. The double Excess East had one year, which is the last, upon which both seasons are Excess, it extended to two years after the annual Excess ceased, owing it seems to the triple Deficiency suc- ceeding ; which is a salutary circumstance, .^s the Excess East upon years of Deficiency corrects in some measure the bad effects of ac- tual, or virtual Excess West, which always prevail when there is Deficiency of East ; yet the Deficiency East at the conclusion brings good weather, which continues during the succeeding Excess. The double Excess extended in all to four years : to three winters in succession, and to two summers, with one of Deficiency interven- ing of these four years, there were one winter and two summers of Deficiency. After the double Excess had ceased operating, one entire year of Deficiency upon both seasons succeeded, as after the triple Ex- cess, (see year 13,) and followed by the single Excess East, year 14-; it began in Excess like each of the former lots on the winter; but there being only one year of Excess, it did not extend by winters beyond the year of Excess, on account of a quadruple Defi- ciency succeeding : the summer after the winter stated had a mode- rate Excess, after which the weather broke as usual : but the Excess East of this lot revolving upon the seasons in one year, the first year of the storm is the most moderate of all the periods of change, and in an agricultural view was one of the best ot years. On the winters after are a great Deficiency, while upon the second, third, and fourth summers, and all upon years of Deficiency, there appear a greater Excess than upon the first, increasing rapidly from the two first to the two last, and the West wind of each decreased until the third from the beginning of this order, when a slight increase appears on the fourth summer of Excess East in succession. This extension, or power of the single Excess East upon the summers, seems to be ow- ing to the quadruple Deficiency following, and is on the same princi- ple with the extension of the double Excess upon the succeeding 156 MACHINERY Of THE WIKP- [.Part IV. triple Deficiency, though somewhat in a different manner, each operating according to the necessity of the case, or agreeable to the rule of the first Eighteen year period, that on every year of Defi- cie.icy Ea^t there is an Excess upon one season until the last year,; when there is a Deficiency upon both. Thus, one year of Excess extended to four years, and to five seasons, after which is a year whereon both seasons are Deficiency, (see year 18). The distribution of the wind of the second triple Excess East (now, April 18^1, almost done) is totally different from the 6rst triple; the first winter under this lot being a great Deficiency, and the sum- mer after a still greater Excess : the second winter is a considerable Excels, and the summer after she same ; the third winter is also Ex- cess, with which the lot terminates. The seasons of Excess are in continuation from the first to the last ; as thus, summer 1819, winter 1820, summer 1820, winter 1821, which is a new arrangement of this lot, ard opposite to that of the first, though the number of seasons of Excess in each are the same : the middle year of each are so far bimilar as to have Excess upon both seasons of the year. On this principle of reversion of the distribution of the winds in the current or second Eighteen year period, the curious may deter- mine the stjte of the winds by the seasons to the 1830, when the third triple Excess East commences, under which a different order of distribution from both the former courses of Excess East will take place. SUMMARY. THE first triple Excess East extended to five years ; the first dou- ble to four years ; the first single to four years ; also, respectively to six, five, and five seasons ; but leaving out the year of single Defi- ciency East, to four years, and five seasons each lot ; while the sea- sons of Deficiency during the operation of the Excess (leaving out the single Deficiency) are three Seasons each lot, not reckoning the entire years of Deficiency : including these, they are exactly equal in number to the Excess, that is, the Deficiency of each wind by seasons, is equal to the Excess. Also the greatest Excess in the first triple Excess is upon the winter of the first year of Excess: the next greatest upon the sum- mer of the last year of Excess. In the first double Excess the same, only that there is a still greater Excess on the middle summer of the lot of Deficiency succeeding. In the first single Excess there is an Excess only upon one winter, and but moderate, and the Excess by summers is greatest on the last summer of Excess, which is the fourth in succession, and the third under the lot of Deficiency which follow the single Excess. This summer, which is that of 1817, had a higher number of days East wind than any other under the lot, but it was by much the Weakest or smallest wind which came under ob- servation, before this year at least, which arose from the long con- tinuance of Excess East by the summers, so that it seemed to be dying away insensibly, which is remarkable as this is the last Part IV.~\ DISTRIBUTION OF THE LOTS. 157 season of the Eighteen year period : but circumstances similar have been observed generally in the weather, the beginning and end of changes being most comminuted. The lots of Excess East always began in winter, and ended in summer, whether the lots of Excess be strictly taken by themselves, or by including the years of Deficiency with Excess upon any of the seasons this is the constant rule in the first Eighteen year period, but the very first lot of the second Eighteen, begins on the oppo- site season the summer, which is probably the rule through the whole course, at least to 1S30. OF THE DEFICIENCY EAST. THE first Deficiency observed is a single, and commences a series i as the triple Excess East which immediately followed and extended to the winter before the lot, (but this might, or most probably has been the consequence of the single Excess East of the year 2, ) which is that of the year of single Deficiency, the Deficiency East was necessarily confined to the summer 1803. The Deficiency of the following summer, which is almost nothing, may be attributed to the one in hand as its property ; and it is probable that the single Excess West of the same season was preceded on the year before by a slight Excess of both winds upon the summer, which makes the two singles equal. The second lot of Deficiency is a double, years 7 and 8, and fol- lowed the triple Excess ; it operated upon the winter before the first year of Deficiency* that of 1806, and continued its operation for three winters in succession and for three summers in succession, actually, or virtually, the latter in 1S07, and the former in 1808 1809, the two last winters, and two first summers, being the two yeais of Deficiency, (see years 7 and 8.) This is a most extensive operation of two annual Deficiency of East, which is occasioned by being opposed to the two middle years of the quadruple Excess; consequently under such circumstances, there must have been much Deficiency of East wind : therefore a double Deficieacy can never exceed this range, however varied its effect at other times when differently posted against the quadruple Excess: and the reason why it is always opposed to the quadruple Ex- cess may be readily seen, for supposing a quadruple Deficiency to be opposed to the quadruple Excess, and the former to begin on the last years of the latter, as is the case with the double Deficiency at times ; it is evident, that by such an arrangement there would bean end of all reasonable weather, since with great Excess "\Vt-st, an Excess East is necessary as soon as possible, for without this, matters would be at a stand, or run into extremes of great, in- convenience ; now a quadruple Deficiency in the position stated, would not admit of the Excess East in time, and hence the least lot of Deficiency East, excepting the single, is most proper for the end required, by being opposed to the quadruple Excess West, 153 MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. [Par* IT. In the last year of the double Deficiency, both seasons are De- ficiency. The third lot is a triple Deficiency, years 11, 12, and 13: unlike the former, it did not operate till the summer of the first year of Deficiency, the reason of which is that the lot is not opposed by greater lot of Excess, as the case with the double Deficiency, but merely by an equal lot j again, the triple Deficiency East did not commence like the double on the year before, nor upon the winter of the first year, becatise>the triple Excess opposed is! a" sudden retnrn of a great lot after a still greater, with only a single Deficiency West intervening see year 10 of single Deficiency West, and the explanation on this head in the History of the Weather. This lot, it has been stated, did not operate until the summer of the first year; the Deficiency East continued upon the two winters following, and upon the summer after tJttf.las.t, which is the last year of the lot. It did not extend to any season beyond the lot, as in the case of the double Deficiency, because another still more powerful lot of Deficiency was close at hand the quadruple. The triple Deficiency altogether included two winters and two summers, and on the last year is Deficiency upon both seasons. The fourth lot is a quadruple Deficiency East* commencing on the year 15. The first Deficiency by the seasons is in the winter of the first year of the lot, and continued increasing to the third win- ter inclusive, which signifies that the sum of East wind is decreasing to the third winter. On the fourth winter 1818, there is an increase of the East wind, because the succeeding triple Excess East begins to operate, but is slill a great Deficiency, with a Deficiency upon the summer after, this being the last year of the quadruple Deficiency, on which of course there is Deficiency upon both seasons. But a new order of Excess and Deficiency appears under the se- cond triple Excess East of the 19, iiO, and 21 years, (which however belongs to the second period as stated) for the Deficiency of the quadruple extends to the triple Excess East, the first winter of tiie first year of Excess being still Deficiency East, which makes five winters of Deficiency in succession ; a circumstance not only new but quite unexpected. The arrangement of the quadruple Deficiency is peculiar ; all the winters of the lot are Deficiency, and all the summers Excess, ex- cepting the last, which is obedient to t^ie rule common to all the lots of Deficiency East, of the first course at least. The same re- mark is applicable to the triple Deficiency West, which made all the seasons under the lot. Deficiency, (excepting the last winter), and the fourth or succeeding summer in addition. Thus, all the lots of Excess of the first course or Eighteen year period, had one year in which there is Excess upon both seasons ; and in like manner all the lots of Deficiency (excepting the single Deficiency East and single Excess West) have one year in which both seasons are Deficiency. . IV.~] DISTRIBUTION OF THE LOTS. 159 SUMMARY. THE single Deficiency of East is similarly circumstanced with the single Excess West, both fell upon the same season : the Deti- ciency extended to the season succeeding respectively, and the greatest Deficiency upon the year and season of Deficiency : it is more probable however that the influence, or effect of the single is limited to the season, and that the Deficiency which succeeded is merely a property of the Excess. The double Deficiency extended to four years, to three winters, and three summers in succession ; the last year of the lot, (but not the last summer of Deficiency,) having Deficiency upon both sea- sons ; the greatest Deficiency upon the winter of the first } ear of Deficiency (but not the first winter of Deficiency) of the lot, and next greatest Deficiency upon the summer of the last year of De- ficiency. The triple Deficiency extended to three years, to two winters, and two summers; being the summer of the first year of the lot, the winter after, and the following winter, and the summer after the last winter, which is the last year of Deficiency of the lot, and both seasons Deficiency. The greatest Deficiency upon the first winter of Deficiency, or winter of the second year of the lot ; the rest of the Deficiency being about equal. The quadruple Deficiency extended to five years, (similar to the triple Excess East) to five winters, and one summer, the last on the concluding year of the lot. The greatest Deficiency upon the third winter. Thus, it is seen that every succeeding lot of Defi- ciency, after the single, affected a summer less than its predeces- sor, while each succeeding lot increases in extent, or numerical pew? ~\ DISTRIBUTION Of THE LOTS. 161 Excess upon the last winter left but one entire year of actual De- ficiency West upon both seasons, as usual. The third lot is a double Excess. It commenced upon the win- ter of 1817i which is the first year of the lot, and is Deficiency upon the summer; it is in Excess upon the next winter, and the succeed- ing summer 1818, being the only summer of Excess under this lot; the Excess which was induced however by this lot, commenced, in ^a slight degree, on the winter before the lot, that of 181G, it conti- nued also upon the winter after the lot, on 1819, so that under this lot there were four winters of Excess, and one summer, arising from the lots of Deficiency preceding and succeeding, being of the high- est power, or number, viz. a triple and a double Deficiency, and is on the same principle with all the other lots of Excess which inter- vened between large lots of Deficiency, and the contrary. The frequency of West wind on the first winter of the double! Excess is most extraordinary. It seems that each lot of Excess West increases in quantity, or frequency, as the strength of the lot decreases, that is, in the triple Excess, the West wind is more fre- quent under, or on the first winter of Excess, than upon any winter, of the quadruple Excess ; and upon the first winter of the double Excess, it is more frequent than upon either of the former, as by the following statement : \Vinterl807, Highest Excess under the quadruple Excess. days wind 1 29. Winter 1812, First & highest Excess under the triple Excess days wind 15.~. Winter 1817, First & highest Excess under *tlie double Excess, days wind 147. TKis rate is a pulsation wholly different from that of the Excess, East which is retarded, or limited in number, and prolonged in ope- ration as the lots are diminished, and is accounted for by the range of the East wind being less in a given time, because it is less fre- quent on the average by one-half than the West wind, and also by the lots of Excess West being necessarily greater than the lots of Excess East, while the number of lots is the same, being twelve of each : the former therefore must be hurried as it were in proportion to the difference, and the latter equally retarded, as for example, "Winter 18O4, Highest rate of wind tinder the triple Excess East days 104. Winter 1809, Highest rate of wind under the double Excess East days 85. Winter 1SH, Highest rate of wind under the single Excess East days 7G. It is very singular that whatever be the interval between each lot of either wind, the time between the highest rate under each lot is the same, viz. five years. The last and fourth lot of a course of Excess West is a single, a lot which is observed in the first year of Journal; it will appear again in the twenty-first year of the Cycle, and belongs to the second Eighteen year period, now current; it will be limited to a single season, the summer, as before observed; (though 16? MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. [Part IV. it be in a different position, and wholly separated from the single Deficiency of East), the lots of Excess West commencing on alternate seasons, or winter and summer about ; but no single ap- pears exposed to such a variety of position as the single Excess West, unless the single Deficiency West form an exception, as on the twenty-second year. SUMMARY. THE single Excess West extended to one season the summer, and is a great Excess. The quadruple Excess extended to hve years and seven seasons; the triple Excess extended to three years and four seasons : the double to four years and five seasons. All the lots, strictly limited to the years of Excess, commenced upon alternate seasons the single upon the summer, the quadruple upon the winter, the triple upon the summer, and the double upon the winter, and the second single upon the summer; and it is remark- able that they all terminate upon tlie same season the summer : the alternation of the West wind is necessary for the reasons stated in the preceding page, and because an arrangement simi- lar to the Excess East would require too much time, and the proper proportion of West wind could not blow. The first single Excess West had the greatest Excess of course, on the season to which it was confined : the quadruple had the greatest Excess by winters, upon the second winter of Excess, and a still greater upon the second summer of uninterrupted Excess : the triple had the greatest Excess upon the first winter of Excess : the double the same ; the second single is moderate, as explained, and for the rea- sons stated in the History of the Weather. OF THE DEFICIENCY WEST. THE first lot of this rate observed, is a double Deficiency on the years and 5. It is remarkable that the double Deficiency of East and W T est of the first course of the winds have three winters of Defi- ciency in succession, while the summers are of all rates. In the lot in, point, the summer of the first year is Deficiency, which is the rule \i\ the double Deficiency East, though nominally a small Excess : ano- ther rule in both is, that the winter before the first annual Defi- ciency is Deficiency ; while each lot is followed by a summer of Deficiency in the year after. The next lot is a single, and the last of a course or series. It extended to the winter before the lot, and the winter after, each of the three winters being Deficiency West See winters 9 10 11. On the year of Deficiency, the summer is also Deficiency ; and a Deficiency appears upon the second summer after the last winter of Deficiency, as in the double Deficiency the boundary of the lots ot Deficiency being the years with Excess upon both seasons, as the Boundary of the lots of Excess are the years of Deficiency upoi\ Part IT.] DISTRIBUTION* OF THE LOTS. 163 both seasons. The ramification and 'power of this single Deficiency is truly wonderful ; but when it is considered that it is placed among the greatest possible number of Excess, its power is necessarily in- creased to the utmost : had it been otherwise circumstanced, its in- fluence would have been proportionally circumscribed. The succeeding lot is a triple Deficiency, which is properly the first of a course t there is Deficiency upon all the winters and sum- mers of thrf years of Deficiency, excepting the third and last winter, and upon the Sfc*Bml summer after the last year of Deficiency, as after the other lots of Deficiency. See 14* 15 16 years. The next lot to the above is a double Deficiency, as at first ob- served, and on the 19 and 20 year, it belongs to the second Eigh- teen year period : the rules under which are different from any of the former lots, on account of a new arrangement of the distribution which begins as stated, with the triple Excess East of the 19 20 21 years: instead of the first year of the double Deficiency, being 1 Deficiency upon both seasons, like all the previous lots of Defi- ciency there is an Excess West upon the winter, and the pair of Deficiency is on the last year of the lot, which is Deficiency upon both seasons, there being a Deficiency upon the winter of the year following ; so that there are four seasons in succession of Defi- ciency West, as there are at the same time four seasons of Excess East. This new order observed under the second triple Excess East, and second double Deficiency West of the second Eighteen year period, renders it probable that the pairs of Excess revolve upon all the seasons and years of the lots in all possible ways in one revolution of the Cycle, and the same of the pairs of Deficiency under this second triple Excess however the pair of Excess is upon both sea- sons of the middle year of the lot, as in the first lot ot triple Excess of 1804- .5 6 ; and the pair of Deficiency under the second lot of double Deficiency West, is on the last year of the lot, which is the reverse of the order observed under the first double Deficiency of the 1804 5. SUMMARY. THE double Deficiency of the first course operated upon four years and five seasons, being a winter before, and a summer after the actual years of Deficiency, or of the lot. On the first year of the lot both seasons are Deficiency; the winter of the next year, and second summer after, or the summer of the first year after the lot, the next year having Excess upon both seasons, which termi- nate the Deficiency of this lot. The greatest Deficiency is upon the second winter, or winter of the first year of Deficiency, and the least Deficiency upon the summer of the same year. The single Deficiency under the first course, extended likewise to four years, three winters in succession, and two summers, ex- 164; JttAdttiNERY OF THE WINES. [Part IV. actly in the same order as the previous double Deficiency, differing only in this, that the greatest Deficiency is upon the summer of the year of Deficiency, and the least Deficiency upon the last winter of Deficiency. The triple Deficiency of the first course extends to only four years like the rest: it had Deficiency upon all the winters (the last excepted) and summers under the lot, and upon the summer of the year succeeding the lot, similar to the other lots preceding: it in- cluded seven seasons ;* thus resembling in power the quadruple Excess: the Deficiency is greatest upon the last summer of the lot, but not the last summer of Deficiency, and the least Deficiency upon the winter of the middle year of the lot. It was terminated by the Excess upon both seasons, on the year after the last Defi- ciency, as usual. But it is seen by the Cycle that this last rule, viz an Excess upon both seasons of one weather year in each lot, cannot always hold, for after the second double Deficiency West there succeeds but a single Excess West, which is opposed to the last of the current triple Excess East : the two seasons of that year there- fore cannot have Excess West agreeable to the rule stated : and it appears that the succeeding single Deficiency East and West are similarly circumstanced, and followed by two years of Excess East and West in each i but the usual conditions return, or at least are admissible on the two last years of the quadruple Excess, each of these being opposed by Deficiency of East, so that there may be Excess West upon both seasons of these years for an Excess upon both seasons of any year can only happen when one of the annual winds is Excess and the other Deficiency. GENERAL SUMMARY. Averages of the Wind by the Seasons. Winter Wind,. ..East, 68. Winter Wind,. ..West, 105. Summer Wind, East, 71. Summer Wind, West, 108. IK the recapitulation following, the greatest and least Excess and Deficiency of each wind, are stated in numbers, which may be compared to the above averages. The triple Excess East in the first period, f is Excess upon both seasons of the middle year of the lot, viz. Winter 1805, Excess East Trind 88. Summer Excess Ea^t wind 72. The greatest Excess is on the first winter of the lot winter 1804. * This lot operated only upon six seasons, the third winter stated as De- ficiency having a slender Excess See winter 1816. Its power therefore resembled that of the quadruple Deficiency; as well as the quadruple Excess, for the last, strictly limited to the years of Excess, operated only upon six seasons. t That is the fir>t Eighteen year period, and is expressed thus ia the present article for the sake of brevity. 7F.] GENERAL SUMMARY. IG5 Excess East 101. Next greatest Excess by summer?, on tlic last summer under the lot, 1806. Excess Ea-' S3. The least Excess, summer US 05. Excess 72. The greatest Deficiency is on the last winter under the lot, 1S06. Deficiency 69. The clcuhle Excess East of the first course, is Excess upon both seasons of the last year of the lot, which tire Winter 1810, Excess East wind, 71. Summer Excess L!a<-t, 85. The greatest Excess East is on the first winter, ai;d the last sum- mer ot the lot Winter 1809, Excess East, 85. Summer 1810, Excess East wind, 85. Greatest Deficiency, summer of the first year of the lot, the 1809. Deficiency 62. The single Excess East could only have Excess upon both sea- sons on the year of Excess Winter 1814, Excess East, 76. Summer Excess East, 79. The greatest Excess and Deficiency of course as above. The triple Excess East of the second course of the winds, is Excess East upon both seasons of the midd'e year of tiie lot as before, winter Excess East, 76; summev Excess, bl. The great- est Excess is on the first summer of the lot : summer 1819, Excess East, 9.5. Next greatest Excess is on the last winter of the lot: winter 1S21, Excess E.ist, 0. The greatest Deficiency is on the first winter of the lot, winter J819, Deficiency 50. The single Deficiency East of the first course is limited to one season the summer of 1803, Deficiency East 46. The double Deficiency East, is Deficiency upon both seasons of the last year of the lot, being Wi liter of 1808, Deficiency East, 55. Summer Deficiency East, 54. The greatest. Deficiency is on the first winter, and last summer under the lot, of course, as these seasons have the greatest Excess West, and are Winter 1807, Deficiency East, 46. Summer 18O8, Deficiency East, 64. The triple Deficiency E'.ist, is Deficiency upon both seasons of the lasl year of the lot, which are Winter 1815, Deficiency East, 64 Summer Deficiency East, 03. The greatest Deficiency is on the second winter of the lot of course, as on that season there is the greatest Excess West Winter 1812, Deficiency East 46. Three of the Deficiency equal, or 62, 64, 63. The quadruple Deficiency is Deficiency upon bot:i seasons of the last year of the lot Wi liter 1818, Deficiency East, 4". Summer Deficiency East, 65. The greatest Deficiency is upon the third winter, but is great on all Winter 1817, Deficiency East, 25. Jbree otliw Peficiency, 55. 48, 4T. y 1G6 MACHINERY OF THE WIND. [Part I}'. The quadruple Excess West is Excess upon both seasons of the two miidle years of the lot, viz. Winter 1807, Excess West, 129. Summer Excess West, 110. Winter 1808, Excess West, 126. Summer Excess Wesr, ISO. The greatest Excess is upon the first winter and last summer of the above list. The greatest Deficiency i* on the Jast winter nf ILe lot, as Winter 1809, Excess West, 95. The tiip'e Exces West is Excess upon both seasons of the last year of the lot. Winter 1813, Excess West, 115. Summer Excess West, 118. The greatest Excess is on the first winter of Excess, winter 1812. D * Excess West 183 The greatest Deficiency on the middle summer of the lot, or the season immediately succeeding the greatest E^- cess, summer 1812, Deficiency West, 98. The double Excess West is Excess upon both seasons of the last year of the lot. Winter 1818, Excess West, 126. Summer Excess West, 119. The greatest Excess is on the first winter of the lot, and the great* est Deficiency on the summer after the greatest Excess, viz Winter 1817, Excess West, 147. Summer Deficiency West, 86. The single Excess West is limited to one season, the summer of 1803, Excess West 135, being under the same rule and season with the eingie Deficiency East. The double Deficiency West, is Deficiency upon both seasoas in the first year of the lot, as Winter 1804, Deficiency West, 78. Summer Deficiency West, 104. The greatest Deficiency is upon the winter stated. The single Deficiency West is Deficiency upon both seasons, on the year of Deficiency, of course, and similar to the single Excess East. Winter 1810, Deficiency West, 99. Summer Deficiency West, S4, The greatest Deficiency on the summer of the year of Deficiency, as above. The triple Deficiency West, is Deficiency upon both seasons in the first year of the lot. It has been stated that all the years of the uiple Deficiency are Deficiency upon both seasons, but the two - last winters are, one virtual and the other slightly actual Excess, as explained. Winter 1814, Deficiency West, 8j6. Summer Deficiency West, 103. The greatest Deficiency is on the Jast summer, and first winter under the lot. 1814, Deficiency West, 86. Summer 1816, Deficiency Vcst^ ?9< Part 7T.} GENERAL SUMMARY. K>7 In the second double Deficiency, the Deficiency upon both sea- sons is on the last year of the lot, which is the reverse of the di.s- position of the first double Deficiency. The greatest Deficiency is that of the first summer, which is 79. EXTHENfE EXCESS AND DEFICIENCY. THE greatest Excess East wind is under the first winter of the first triple Ex-* *eas East, winter ISOi. Excess East wind, 104 The greatest Deficiency East in the first course or period is on the third winter of die quadruple Deficiency 1817. Deficiency East...... 25 The greatest Excess West wind in the same course, is on the first winter of the double Excess \Vest 1R17. Excess West, :...,;. 147 The greatest Deficiency West in the same course, is on the first winter of double Deficiency West, 1804. Deficiency West, 78 These four extremes are upon two winters of the period, a paif of opposite extremes upon each season, with an interval of thirteen year? between each pair : and by the above tabular view the com- parative range of the East wind is much greater than that of the West, the greatest sum of East being near five times that of the least, whereas the greatest sum of West, is not double that of the least : yet the range of the West is exceedingly greater in a given or limited time ; as for instance, in summer 1816, the sum of West wind is 79, and on the immediate winter after, the sum of West wind is 14-7, whereas the East wind is thirteen years^n accomplish- ing the extent of the range stated : in a general view however the greatest extremes of the West wind correspond in time with tha East wind, viz from winter ISO^, which is the least, or 78 days, to the winter of 1817, which is the greatest, or 14-7 days. Of the Increase and Decrease of the Day? Wind, with the fit* crease and Decrease of the Lots and Series of Lots* THE continual increase and decrease of the wind as the lots in- crease and decrease, furnishes a method of detecting the sum of future years and seasons, and thereby to determine much of the na- ture of the vVeather to follow, which must be of peculiar importance during the remaining years of the first Cycle of the weather ; though there is little doubt that it will be always necessary to observe the state of both, as these must vary in the sum?, and in the mode of distribution and operation upon the years and seasons. It has already been shewn that there is a general decrease of the East wind, and an increase of the West by winters in the first course of the weather observed, and the reverse upon the summers : so that the original general run may not only be soon expected to return, but is actually commenced. 1G8 MACHINERY OF THE \VIXDS. \_PartlV. The decline of the East wind by winters, is mat regular on thtf 'first season of every let of Excess of the first course, and has even extended into the first lot of the current : while the increase of the Ea.^t wind by the summers on the last seasop of every lot 6f De-. fici.'-ncy is equally remarkable and gradual. A gradation is also ob- served from the. first to the last Jot of a course, in various other* some of which may be seen by the following tabular views : C First vrhitcr of triple Excess East, 1804 Sinn of wind P'.a^t in clays, 104 E* - J First winter of double Excess East, 18O9 Sum of wind East in days, 8.5 E. y First winter of single Excess East 1814 Sum of wind East in days, 76 *E.- (_ First winter of triple Excess East, 1819 Sum of wind East in days, 50 D. The cbcnge from Excess to Deficiency is with a new course of the lots. The probable indication from this continual decrease during the f urse of Excess East, is, that it will be on the increase on the succeeding course; but at the same time it cannot be high on the next, or third triple Excess East, because the first year is op- posed to the middle year of a triple Excess West, but the high rate will be thro-.vn upon the summer of the last year of the lot, which is opposed by Deficiency West, but most probably there will be an Excess upon both seasons of that year, the 1833. C Last winter of trip'e Excess East, 1806 Days wind East, 60 D. \ last winter of double Excess East, 1810 Days wind East 71 E. j Last winter of single Excess East, 1814 Days wind East, 76 E. (^ La-st winter of triple Excess East, 1821 Days wind East, 80 E. This increase, which is regular and gradual, shews the probable state of wind on the last winter of the triple Excess East current,* which determines the season upon which the single Excess West of that year falls, and consequently the nature of the weather follow- ing under the succeeding single Deficiency Eist arid West. As the winter East wind decrease?, the summer East wind increases, but on opposite lots, or the lots of Deficiency, as follow fLast Deficiency urnler single Deficiency, summer lf-'0~, days wind East, 46 D. J Last Deficiency under doultle Deficiency, summer 1^08, days wind East, 54 D. 5 ^ Last'Deficienoy 'under triple Deficiency, summer 1813, days wind F.nst, 63 D. | La^t Deficiency under quadruple Deficiency, sumr. 1818, days wind East, 65 D. (^Li'ot Deficiency under single Deficiency, summer IS22, days wind East, ~,2 E. The change from Deficiency to Excess being with a new course of the lots. This gradual increase points out the state of the Enst wind of tlio summer 18^2, which is tlic- more likely, as all the ye:irs of De- ficiency of both winds had an Excess East upon the summer : indeed tlie years of Deficiency East and Excess West have generally Ex- Cgss East upoi: the summers. This arrangement i- jn^t the oppose of that piven by the win- ter East wind, which declines much in the same proportion as this "' This part of the account was drawn up in 1820. Part 7T.] INCREASE AND DECREASE, &C. J69 increases, and points to a decrease of the East wind on the last sum- mers of the lots of Deficiency East in the next course. The following statement gives a view of the increase of the rate of the West wind first winter of Excess of each lot C First winter of Excess under the quadruple 180i? days wind West 121 4 3 First winter of Excess under the triple Excess 1812 days wind \Vcst K~~ ^ First winter of Excess under the double Excess 1S17 days West wind.. ..147 From what is known however of the West wind, the operation of the succeeding quadruple will resemble that of the quadruple- observed Why the West wind should increase so remarkably when the lots are decreasing, is not very apparent, (excepting as ex- plained.) especially as the double Excess is at a wide distance from any other lot of Excess, unless it be accounted for by the great decrease of the East wind of the same period, for great and frequent Deficiency East, admits of great and frequent Excess West, yet the one is not in proportion to the other of late years, in parti- cular since the 1814, calms being prevalent in an unusual degree. A reverse arrangement is observed in the summers of the same course, but upon the same princple, the Deficiency West being oc- casioned by Excess East, generally, as thus ( First summer of double Deficiency East 1 SOT, Wind East 72. Wi-.id West 1 10 E 5 3 Second summer of triple Deficiency East 1 S 1 2, Wind East ?5, Wind WtM 93 D ( Third sumr. of quadruple Deficiency East 1617, Wind East 87 Wind West 86 D This is the rate of increase of the East wind by the summers of the lots of Deficiency, but it is something greater by taking the whole lots of Deficiency, comparatively; and it is curious to re- mark, that five years form the intervals of increase, as in the view of the decline of the East Excess, first winter: and of the rise of the Deficiency East, by the last summer, in the preceding page. la this View too, there is a singular agreement, for the last winter East wind changes from Deficiency to Excess between the triple and double Excess; and in the present, or View ,">, the West wind changes from Excess to Deficiency between the double and triple Deficiency East C Gienfcst Excess single Excess west, snmr. I30,~, Wind West 1.35, Wi:id East 4 P. \ Greatest Ex toss quadruple Excess sumr. ISOS, Wind We>t I~0, Wind East 54. y Greatest Excess triple Excess summer 1815!, Wind West 119, Wind Ka>t C". ^Greate-,1 Excess double Excess summer 18i, Wind West 119, Wind E.jst o'J. Summer ISl'i is substituted for thr:t of 1 81 1, there beiivg bnt one day of difference, because the gradation i< generally at tiis rate of" five years between each greatest Excess and Deficiency. By this statement it would appear that the single Excess West is the first of a course, and the Eighteen year period determines the samo ; but by the list of Uie increase of East wind under the last 170 MACHINERY OF THE WIND*; [Part IP Deficiency of each lot by the summers, it appears that the increase goes on after a new course of West \vind has made its appearance, Which is the single Excess of 1821 : yet as this single, and the two first of the succeeding quadruple Excess, are each opposed to Ex- cess East, it is highly probable that the annual rate, and even the rate by seasons of either wind will be but moderate, until the two last years of the quadruple, which are opposed by Deficiency East; this is supported by the gradual decline of the summer West wind of the whole period observed, which is analogous to the decline of the winter East wind first stated, and indicates a slow increase of the West wind by the summers under the next course under the lots of Excess West, and a decrease under the lots of Deficiency East, that is, a gradual decrease of the East wind under the last Deficiency of East by the summers. Such is. a brief sketch of the Machinery of the Winds by seasons, and by years ; it will remain a question for future ages to determine in what manner this element is moulded into lots of a fixed quantity, and order of succession of these quantities. Yet, however regular and admirable the construction, it will one day perish, since there is a constant necessity of the renewal of the parts, even in short pe- riods, to preserve the structure from breaking it being the nature of all machinery to wear in time, while time itself is but a part of the machinery. EFFECT OF THE LOTS Of Excess and Deficiency upon the Weather* OF THE TRIPLE EXCESS EAST, YEARS 4, 5, & 6, &C. IN T this lot all the summers are dry and mild, though not remark- able in the latter quality; and the winters also mild : the exception *s to slight cold in the summer of the last year of the lot, shews the difficulty of inducing cold under an annual Excess East on the iu.nmers, particularly with a true and regular East wind, which was eminently the case under this lot. The cold is however in pro- portion to the single previous sign, or condition an Excess \Ves-t wind, and also regular, on the winter of the year. But a complete exception appears in respect of the other lots of Excess East in the Hrst course the single having a hard frosty winter. The other- wise absence of cold and frost under the Excess East, has been stated as resulting from the frequent and quick repetition of storms under the first course, which follow in succession under the most fa- vourable circumstances possible, (to the perfection of the storm), Part IV.] EFFECT OF THE I.QTSL, 171 the lots of Excess declining in power as the lots of Deficiency increase. In the other parts of the System, the large lots of Ex- cess come in between the large lots of ^Deficiency, which conse- quently meliorate the weather of the latter; and in one part (rio\y current) two of the largest lots of Excess East are crowded together, with the least interval possible, being only separated by a single Deficiency : and as all these have mild summers, though not remarkably so, and the period of considerable, or rather great; ex- tent without a storm, the cold will fall in a natural manner upon the winters in frosty snowy weather. The effect of the East wind is perfect dryness, but there being always a mixture, or a crossing of the West wind, more or less, it operates in proportion as exposed to this wind ; in consequence the first winter of the triple Excess is very wet as explained: but the two winds cross by the day as well as by seasons, and by years, so that a perfectly dry season never appears. The second year of the triple Excess is the dryest in the list, and on it i the smallest sum of West wind observed ; but the dryness is partly in consequence of the great deposition of rain on the previous year : but a slight Excess West on the *ummer of this year, not only occasioned an average rate of rain on the season itself, but ig followed by a slight Excess of rain on the succeeding winter, whic^i is in the third year of the triple Excess: on this season is also the first Excess West of the quadruple Excess; but on the summer suc- ceeding, the East wind of the last year of the triple Excess pre- vailed considerably, the consequence appears to be a dryer sum- mer than any other in the list. Thus, the triple Excess would have ended in perfect drought but for the Excess West which com- bined towards its conclusion In the double Excess East both years are dry, though the first winter is very wet and mild, as in the case of the first winter of the triple Excess ; it being preceded in the same manner by great Ex- cess West, which however formed but a part, or one of a lot, and rot a whole lot by itself, as in the instance of the single Excess West: and accordingly the quantity of rain is inferior, and for another reason, that the double Excess East is weaker than the triple Excess East. The most singular circumstance connected with the double Ex- cess East, is, that it contributed on its first year to form one of a pair of wet winters, and one of a pair pf dry summers ; vvhereas the double Excess West which followed some years after, con- tributed on its first year to form one of a pair or ury w inters, and on its last year one or' a pair of dry summers the last wet and dry winter of each pair being on the first year of each lot, or pair uf Excess; and the first of the last pair of dry summers being on the last year of the double, or pair of Excess West. The next pair of wet winters will determine whether there be a 172 MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. [ Part IV. necessary connection between the pairs of wet r.<:d dry winters and summers, and the pairs of Excess and Deficiency of either wind. In the single Excess East, the year is dry and the summer mild, but being in the middle of a mild period of some duration, and pre- ceded by a moderately wet summer, the winter of this year is frosty in proportion. In the second triple Excess East, the weather differs much in the particulars, from that of the first triple ; and the state of the Vvirid by seasons still more all the summers however are mild, and all the years dr}', but the middle summer is rather wet, and the two last winters frosty ; the sum of rain by the winters correspond wiih the iirst triple so far, that the first and last are above average, and the middle near equally low. The rate of rain of the middle year is very near the same with the middle year of the (list triple, and the sum of West wind is low : which is a proof that the very great quantity of rain under the iirst winter of the first triple, is owing to the previous single Excess West, and that the very great dryness of the second winter of each triple is the combined effect of continued Excess East and Deficiency West, which is opposed ; the current triple Excess East being preceded by a double Excess West, could not consequently shew equal extremes with the first triple Excess which was preceded by a tingle Excess West. OF THE SINGLE DEFICIENCY EAST, YEAR 3, &C. As the Excess makes wet winters alternately, so the Deficiency itv.'ki'S wet summers alternately ; that is, in each case generally : but there being larger lots of the last than of the first, the prujx.ity of the last year of Deficiency, is to restore the weather of the Excess; which is a matter of course seemingly, the last Deficiency being ne- cessarily a recommencement of the Excess. Under tin's head thtre- fore will be stated merely the weather in genera! tcrr.;s, The single Deficiency which begins the list, is limited to one sea- son, similar to the single Excess of the same year these might be termed the same thing, or the plus and minus, were they not at times upon different years, which renders them distinct lots of each wind, and with properties peculiar to each. These singles in the present case took place upon the same season, summer 1S03, the effect is also limited to a single season the winter succeeding : the summer of this Deficiency is among the warmest experienced, owing to the slender amount of the annual gum of Deficiency East, and being followed by a lot of Excess in other words, it i? of the na- ture of Excess, partaking of the previous and succeeding lots of Excess East. In the double Deficiency, the first wet and cold summer appear?, vcith two frosty winters; but the frost under Deficiency East, is pro- bably never severe, nor continuous the summer under the last De- ficiency is warm and dry, and the first of a pair of dry summers : the Part 7F.] EFFECT OF THE LOTS. 173 last winter under the lot is the first of a pair of wet winters, plready noticed under the double Excess East : but the pair of dry winters are. both under the quadruple Deficiency, and partly under the dou- ble Excess West. In the triple Deficiency is much variety, as under the quadru- ple, but in less space, there being one slightly cqld and wet summer, one dry, and one^wet mild summer in the order stated, with t\vo frosty winters on the years of pa*W summers, and less severe than those under the double Deficiency ; the last summer under this lot being wet, could not be expected to exceed in mildness, but it was tine regular and mild weather. In the quadruple Deficiency, the first summer vet, mild, and very fine; the second, wet, cold, and cloudy, with frequent calms; the third average, and very cold and calm ; the fourth, dry, mild, c!oar : one wet rnild, two frosty and dry, (the pair of dry winters) and one winter average rain and frost all in the order stated. The great mildness of the last summer of the quadruple, which formed a sub- ject of admiration after the recent cold, was more apparent than. real, as it may be termed, there being much of a clear sky and a powerful sun, but the nights were, unusually cold for so fine a season See the low rate of the annual temperature of this period, which is gradually increasing with the increase of the East wind, Thus, all the bad summer weather and frosty winters in the pe- riod ending with the quadruple Deficiency, fell upon the years of Deficiency East in both these particulars the weather of the first course of the wind, or Eighteen year period, exceeded in the fre- quency of each, because all the great lots of Deficiency East are crowded together in less space than appears in any other equal part of the Cycle : for from the first of the double Deficiency to the last of the quadruple, are only twelve years, in which were three storms of two years each. In these lots of Deficiency East, the frost of. winter generally extended through the whole of the half year, and the rains and cold of summer distributed in the same manner ; \vhereas in the other parts of the system, it may be expected from. the order of alternation of the lots, that the same uniformity cannot take place for the frosty winters observed before the undertaking of the Journal seldom extended much into the spring months, and the wet of the summer generally limited to a part of the season, and no extraordinary cold on these seasons, at least from the year 1782, which no doubt must be owing to the lots of Deficiency East com- mencing as far from each other, or at wider intervals than in the period particularly observed, as may be seen by a view of the Cycle of the winds the effect of such an arrangement being in one resj.ect less cloudiness in general, from which would result in the latter part of the winter season much sunshine, and a consequent termination, or mitigation of the frost and in the summer more favourable weather. 174 MACHINERY OF THE WJNDS. [Par/ IV. OF THE SINGLE EXCESS WEST, YEAR 3, &C. THE effect of this state of the wind, Excess West, is an aug- mentation of the force, which is at times very formidable : the combmation --ihe begiMHo of a course of Excess West, with the beginning of a course of Excess East, is followed by much rain ; but the combination of the last lots of Excess West in a course witli repeated Deficiency East, or even the Small lots of Excess East -or in other words, the prevalence of one wind only, for a length of time, is followed by general dryness, though the very dryest seasons are observed near the commencement of a new wind, and always under Excess East : in proof of which there have not appeared any very dry seasons in the last years of the first course, nor yet any very great rains in the same period, or from 1812, while both extremes of wet and dry have occurred in the first years of Excess Eastj and Excess West wind. The first lot of Excess of West observed, is a single, the effect of which in combination with the first of a new course of East wind- has been repeatedly mentioned. As the single Excess is always the first Excess of this wind in the Eighteen year period, it may be termed the first new West wind in each course, or period. The next lot which succeeds is the quadruple : as soon as it be- gan to operate on the winters, the cold appeared on the summers : but this being only one of the conditions leading to cold, it rtas con- sequently very moderate, until the other condition appeared, which is the Deficiency East, when both produced a full effect ; but the lot of Deficiency being small the continuation of the cold is cut short, and not only on this account, bat also because the Excess West left the winters for the summers almost directly, which assi.^f- ed in restoring mild summers. All the bad weather of this lot fell upon the two last winters of Excess West, mild weather coming on the first summer of Deficiency East; so that it seems all the sum- mers of Deficiency East under annual Deficiency Last and at the Conclusion of the lot, are al! mild. This great lot of the wind began mild and ended mild, the cold being in the middle of the lot : the same result is observed under the quadruple Deficiency, which make a part of three changes of the weather under one lot of the wind; (the other wind however making also three changes) whereas the other lots partake of but two rhanges ; and under the singles the weather is uniform. The triple Excess West had the same weather with the triple Deficiency East, both lots being upon the same years and seasons, the mild weather coming as usual with the Deficiency East and Ex- cess West upon both seasons of the last year. The double Excess did not appear until after another storm, which succeeded that under the triple Excess, and commenced on the first year of the quadruple Deficiency? the storm and cold oc- cupied the first three years of this last lot, the cold being continued Part /T.j EFFECT OF THE LOTS. 175 the usual time of two years by the operation of the first of double Excess West; the last Excess of this wind or lot bringing mild wea- ther as usual or, the mild weather came with the first year of De- ficiency East and Excess West upon both seasons. The single Excess West of 1821 will fall upon the summer like the former single of 1S03, but more moderate in quantity ; the win- ter after will be above average wet, of course. The frosty seasons as connected with Excess West are in the following order : the second and third years of the quadruple Ex- cess; the first and second of the triple, and the first of the double, ivere frosty winters; but the frosty, winters, and wet summers, par- ticularly the last, are to be charged to Deficiency East coming af- ter Excess East, in the arrangement observed in the first course. There is a singular alternation of the frosty and mild winters of the period, as connected with the series of lots of the wind. The first winter of the first year of the whole series of Excess Westj (the quadruple) being very mild, and all the other first winters of Excess West being frosty, while the winter of the last of the whole series of Excess East (the single Excess) is very frosty, and all the other first winters of Excess East, are very mild ! so evenly balanced is every thing in the weather. Another and a different rule appears, under the current series of Excess East at least : the first winter under the triple Excess ( itself however being Deficiency ) is mild, and the second winter, with first Excess, is frosty ; and the 1 same character is promised by the succeeding years under Excess East, until near the storm of 1825, those in the storm being necessarily frosty, but broken weather. The winter under the next single Excess East promises to be mild for the same reason, that it is followed directly by a storm, (this reasoning does not ap- ply to the single Excess of 1814) which would agure that the winter weather under the current course of Excess East, is the reverse of that under the course of Excess East observed, at least generally. OF THE DOUBLE DEFICIENCY WEST, YEARS 4 & 5, &C. THE character of this series of the wind is of a negative cast ; the general appearancess however are dry and frosty winters. Under the first lot observed, which is a double Deficiency, fhc most remarkable weather appeared : one winter with an extraordi- nary quantity of rain and snow; and the very next winter with the least quantity of rain of any season, at the same time the greatest comparative proportion of snow, and a general average of frost : but this strange weather in part is undoubtedly occasioned by the single Excess West preceding this lot, as repeatedly stated ; for very different is the result after the double Excels West, which is followed by the same lots of Excess East and Deficiency West. Yet at the same time the different disposition of the wind upon the sea- sons under the last mentioned lots is sufficient, together with the pervious state, to account for the different effect. 176 MACHINERY OF THE WINDS. [Part IV. Under the single Deficiency, a rather dry winter, with a gene- ral average of the frost. Under the triple Deficiency, the first and last winters, are the most frosty under the course, with much snow ; but the quantity of rain, in which the snow is included, do not exceed an average. From the position of the triple Deficiency Weat through the sys- tem, it promises to maintain the frosty character. Under the second double Deficiency, appears weather of a still more remarkable kind, for instead of much snow on the first winter, there is scarcely any, though the mild temperature is not so high as would be expected under such a circumstance. The second winter h frosty indeed, with a great proportion of snow, considering the almost unprecedented small quantity of the rain, and the J**i winter exceeds the average in frost, so that there is a general prin- ciple of reversion pf the weather under the same lots. The Excess East made the round of the seasons in the time oc- cupied by each lot; as thus, the triple revolved from winter to sum- mer in three years the double from winter to summer in two years the single from winter to summer in one year ; eacli lot being fol- lowed -by a storm and cold course ; the cold coming before the first storm ; at the same time with the second, and on the last year of the third : hence the long interval before another storm of the same kind, because the last shews a separation of these courses: the natu- ral period or interval between the storms being two years, or ac- cording to the average returns of Excess East, whereas the period between the cold courses, or cold summers, is three years, or ac- cording to the average returns of Excess West therefore, as there is no Deficiency East to admit of a storm in its full extent, and no lot of Excess West nearer than the next lot of Deficiency East, which admits of cold summers, the cold of the intervening pe- riod will fall in a natural manner upon the winters \\hich precede the lot of double Deficiency East. Now, these regular winters cor- respond with regular summers, which will come round upon the third triple Excess East the winter weather of the first triple being reversed, or upon the summers of the second triple, and the wintec weather of this last being reversed, or upon the summers of the third triple Excess East ; or, in other words, the weather of the triples alternate. The series of Excess East perform a revolution first, in eleven ; second, in nine ; third, in eleven, and fourth, in thirteen years , making four courses of each series in one of the Cycle. The series of Deficiency West, precisely the same. The series of Deficiency East perform each course in sixteerx years making three rounds in one revolution of the Cycle. The series of Excess West precisely the same. APPENDIX THE sura of rain of the accompany-ing Table, from November 1 1796 to October 1?02, is calculated from the very accurate Jour- nal kept by Mr POHTEOUS, which has been alluded to in the course of the work. In this Table are three quadru-- ples, under each the order of the sum of rain is similar, there being so many pairs, and single seasons of the different rates, bat differing in the arrangement ; for under the quadruple Deficiency of 17 9S 99 : 1800 1, the pair of wet winters is on the U'o first years, whereas the pair of wet winters under the quadruple Excess is on the two last years or' the lot : the previous and succeeding winters in both instan- ces being of the same rate; Under the quadruple Deficiency of 1815 16 17 18, the pair of wet sea- sons is on the two first summers of the lot, or in other words, the win- ter weather of the first quadruple Deficiency is upon the summers of the second quadruple Deficiency ; and the summer weather of the first quadruple Deficiency is upon the winters of the second quadruple De- ficie/icy ; all which is not only a proof of the accuracy of the differ- ent sums of rain, though from dif- ferent Journals, but is a proof that the System of the Winds as found by induction, is perfectly correct for all times, backward as forward. A. D. Winter. Summer.': Cycle E E 1797 = 48 + 55 E D 98 + S3 = 45 D E 99 + 55 + 61 D E 1800 45 29 D D 1 39 29 D D ' 2 37 = 43 E D 3 45 37 D E 4 + 73 = 42 E D 5 23 = 40 E D 6 + 51 25 E E 7 = 47 + 55 D E 8 + 55 35 D E 9 + 57 34 E E 10 45 = 43 E D 11 = 49 + 55 D E 12 + 51 36 D E 13 44 + 46 D E 14 = 47 S4 E D 15 + 52 + 48 D D 16 40 + 50 D D 17 89 = 42 D E 18 = 48 35 D E 19 + 52 33 E D 20 25 + 47 E D 21 = 49 E E 22 D D 23 E E well as The cause of variation or change of the wet seasons from the winters of the first quadruple Deficiency to the summers of the se- pond quadruple Deficiency, is readily solved for the double Excea* 178 APPENDIX, "West of the former is opposed to the two first years, and of the las* ter to the two last years, a change of position which entirely alters, the disposition of both winds, and conseqnently a like change is ob- served as to the disposition of the quantity of rain of the seasons: pgain, under the first quadruple is one wet summer, which is pre- ceded by an average, and followed by a pair of dry summers; while under the second quadruple the same order is observed upon the winters, and frpm die same cause. The average summer of 1798 is a high rate, because it is preceded, opposed and followed by very wet seasons; on the contrary, the average which precedes the wet winter of the second quadruple Deficiency is low, because it is pre- ceded and opposed by dry seasons, and followed by a moderate wet winter, agreeable to the rules. The most remarkable circumstance under the fir^t quadruple, is a course of four seasons in succession of very dry weather; while the four dry seasons under the second quadruple and succeeding lots are separated by a pair of averages pn summer 1817 and winter 1818. The disposition of rain under the quadruple Excess is in one respect similar to that of the first quadruple Deficiency, and in ano- ther opposite ; the pair of wet winters of the former being on the two Just years, and upon the latter on the two first years, while the wet summers of both are single seasons, and on the corresponding years of each lot : hence, by this rule, the rains of the ensuing quad* ruple Excess, will be similar to the rains of the quadruple Defi- ciency of 1315 1617 18, with a similar difference, as observed between the two first quadruples ; but the wet and dry seasons of the quadruple Excess in the mean time can only be determined by consulting the best Journals of the weather of the years 1769 70 7172. It is merely necessary to glance at the correspondence of the weather of the other lots, which are similar in strength or quantity as in character. The first single Excess East of 1802 has an average rate of rain on the summer, and the winter is dry; but under the single Excess East of 18fta, the arrangement is just opposite, for the winter is average and the stammer is dry. Under the single De- ficiency West of 1797 is an average winter, and a wet summer ; but under the single Deficiency of 1813 the winter is dry, and the sum- mer is average, so that under the single Deficiency West of 1822, the winter may be expected to be wet, and the summer average ; the first is indicated by the previous single Excess West of 1821 : on the other hand, under the single Deficiency East of 1803, both seasons are dry ; and from the rule of reversion of the weather of the same lots, both seasons of the single Deficiency East of 1822 will be wet ; in both cases moderate, for the two dry seasons of 1803 are pnoderately dry, therefore the two seasons of the Ii22 will be mot wet, The weather of the triples of Excess East has been APPENDIX. 179 already explained, and the further rules will be observed by an inspection of the Table prefixed. The two pairs of dry seasons in 1800 1, and 1801 2, are particularly remarkable, these four dry seasons being all in succession, and under those years which are Deficiency in both winds. Under the last quadruple Deficiency, of which the two first years are also Deficiency in both winds, the same thing could not happen, as the storm only commenced with the first of these years, and every storm contains wet seasons, both by the winters and by the summers. From the above statement, which must be particularly valuable tq those who may be desirous of a corroborating evidence of the Cycle of the Weather, the discovery is under great obligations to the Journal kept by Mr PORTEOUS, and it equally corresponds with the Author's Register, as far as conducted by him, which is to a very recent period. Another satisfactory corroboration, as stated by most respectable authority, is to be found by consulting ' SMITH'S Wealth of Nations,' wherein the remarkable high prices of corn correspond with the severe years of the Eighteen year period. In concluding a work of great labour, but of no doubtful kind, it may be stated, that communications on the subject of the weather having been made at different periods, to the HONOURABLE BOARD OF AGRICULTURE, this distinguished body transmitted two letters to the Author, (copies of which are subjoined) each containing a vote of thanks ; and this at a time when it was necessary to contend with all the inconveniences of a discovery which was not only beyond ex- pectation, but even beyond hope, in so much as to be quite incre* dible to all else: this Attention and approbation of the Honourable Board therefore demands the most respectful gratitude of the Au- thor. Equally grateful and respectful acknowledgements are also due to the noble and highly respectable list of SUBSCRIBERS at the end of the work ; and the Author takes this opportunity of stating that he hopes to appear again before many in the list, in a half-yearly report of the progress of the weather, which will be required for the future, and be published on the first week of November and of May, upon the same plan with the seasons of which the account is here submitted. As the work upon the Cycle of the Weather is intended to be published by Subscription, until fully established in public opinion, such as may be desirous of a copy are requested to address the AU-J thor, (post-paid) at Perth, or at kowhall, Sutherlandshire. COPY OP LETTERS, RESOL VED, BOARD OF AGRICULTURE. SackTille Street, 1 6 tb February, 1819; That tlie thanks of this Board be given to Lieu- tenant George Mackenzie, 11. P. 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