jpUB-NCBffe. s i A N EXAMINATION O F MR. P I T T's PLAN FOR DIMINISHING THE PUBLIC DEBTS, BY MEANS OF A SINKING FUND, PART II. LONDON: FOR JOHN STOCKDALE, op POUT* B V RL IKCTON-HOUSE, PICCADILLY. MbccLxxxvn. / [ Price Six-pence. ] .II 5012431 ( 3 ) A N EXAMINATION OF MR. PITT's PLAN, &c. IN the former part of this work, we have been only trying to explain the nature and principles of the Scheme for Diminifhing the National Debt; and whoever has read that with attention, will now be competent to enter into a more particular examination of the probable fuccefs of Mr. Pitt's Plan. A 2 By 1140306 By taking one Fund alone, and that at an higher price than it has been, we only reckoned .1,261,718 to be purchafed ; whereas, in Let, the public have now at Midjummer, 1787, the fum of . 1,343,100 {landing in their name ; and by having pur- chafed in feveraLof the Funds, the interest is received quarterly, inflead of half-yearly - 9 fo that at the end of one year, we are in the fame ftate, as if we riao? on the laft transfer- day of that year, purchafed the whole Million, at about 74!-, or ioo/. Stock, for 74/. js. 6d. or thereabouts. The confe- quence of this would be much the fame as if every period of the former Table, was reduced from four years and an half to four years ; and confequently, that whatever the Sinking Fund would have amounted to in 63 years, it will at this rate do in about 56 years. But ( 5 ) But a Table is here added, upon the fame fuppofition as in the former part, by which our probable iituation may be readily ftated in a few minutes, on every other fuppofition of encreafe of Debt, or price of Stock. A TABLE A TABLE, Shewing the Effefts of MR. PITT'S SINKING FUND. i ft. Suppofing the prefent Debt to be 240 Millions. zd. The 3 per Cents, to be bought in at 80, all Charge included. 36. An Addition to the Debt of i o Millions in 3 Years, or 1 5 Mil-* lions in 4^ Years. COL. i. 2d. 3d- 4 th. 5 th. 6th. 7 th. 8th. Chriftmas 1790 4* 15 6,occ,ooo c,ooc,ooc 149,000,000 2 55 iSc,oco Midfum. 9,; 9 3 I3,c8c,ccc 16,920,000 256.920,000 Z?O 392,400 Chriftmas 9< '3f 45 21,43^,400 235 6 5> 6cc ^63, 565,600 285 643,031 Midfum. i So/ iS 60 31,292,592 2^,707,408 26^,707,408 300 93 8 777 Chriftmas o i2f 75 42,915,254 32,074,746 27->7474 6 3'5 4*7757 Midfum. 12 27 90 56,6^1,796 3;>34 8 -- 2 4 2 73 ,34S,204 330 ! > 6 99'553 Chriftmas 17 3'i 105 72,849,114 32,150,886 272,152,886 345 2,185,473 Midfum. 22 36 120 91,961,952 28,0^8,04^ 268,038,04? 560 2,758,858 Chrhtmas 26 4i 135 114,515,100 22,4^4,000 260,484,900 375 3435>453 Midfum. 31 45 ISO 141,127,818 8,872,182 248,872,182 390 4333 8 34 Chrtfmas 3? 49i l6 5 173,130,822 8,130,8:2 231,869,178 405 5,193,924 Midfu'n. 40 54 180 210,294,366 30,204,366 zoo, 705, 634 420 6,308,830 Chriftmas 44 |*i 195 i 54>i47>346 59J 1 47;34 6 180,852,654 435 7,624,420 Midfum. 4c 63 210 305,893,866 95,893, 8b6 144,106,134 45 9,176,815 Chriftmas 5-; 67* 225 3^6,954,756 141,954,756 98,04.5,244 465 1 1,008,642 Midturn. 5? 7^ 240 459,006,602 r 9 9,006,608 4>99^>39 2 480 f3, 170,198 Chriftmas 62 ?6i 2 55 524,027,796 269,027,796 =9-7>79 6 495 15,720,833 The Half Years No. of >Jo. 01 Amount of difference The Part of The Annual In- at which each Vcars Mil- Stock bought jetween the the whole whole tcreft of the Period ends. : rom ions for the Pub- 3d and 5th Debt, which Debt. Stock rur- Mid- added ,ic. Column. (till belongs chafed at "um- to the to thePublic each period. mer, >re- Creditors. 1786. ent Debt. Explanation ( 7 ) Explanation and Ufa of the foregoing TABLE. The Table confifts of Eight Columns, of which the ift. Is the day and year which compleats a period of 4^ years, from Midfummer, 1786, when the Sinking Fund, on the prefent Plan, took place. 2d. Is the number of years elapfed in all from the commencement of the Plan. gd. Is a number of even millions, which may be fuppofed poflible to be added to our prefent debt, by future wars, &c. 4th. Is the fum which at the end of every period will have been purchafed by the public of its own debts. 5th, Is merely the difference between the gd and 4th column, and ferves to fhew at the end of each period, what proportion the New Debt incurred, bears to the Stock bought in. 6th. Is the fum for which the public credit ftands pledged to the creditors at the end of each period, and which if paid off would wholly annihilate all demands on us. yth. Is the whole fum for which intereft is to be raifed, in order to pay the public creditors their dividends, and alfo to fupply the Sinking Fund with money to pur- chafe ftock for the abolition of the whole debt. 8th. The annual intereft of the ftock at that time Handing in the name of the public, which added to One Million, makes the whole fum to be laid out in ftock the following year, which fum, multiplied by 6, as in the Table of the Firft Pr.rt, gives the accumulated ftpck at the end of the period. The ( 8 ) The foregoing Table is put in fuch a form, that it exhibits to the view, not only the actual condition of our Finances, in cafe the events of future times concur with the fuppofitions adopted, but alfo it may be made to fuit any adual (late in which the country can hereafter be found, as will be prefently fhewn. In the prefent cafe, it is only neceffary to {hew the references the columns have to each other. In the former part it was made clear, that One Million per annum, laid out in 3 per Cents, at 80 /. would, with its growing in- tereft, transfer to the Public, in four years and a half, Six Millions of 3 per Cent. Stock : and if at the end of that period we add to the Annual Million the Intereft of that Six Millions, and multiply the whole by Six, the product will be the farther Sum transferred ( 9 ) transferred in the fecond period, and fo on, for any length of time. The third column, therefore, is a fuppofed addition to the National Debt of Fifteen Millions in every period, war or peace : it is hardly poffible to be a true fuppofition, but it is greater than paft experience war- rants, and on that account, probably, lefs in favour of the Public than the truth : it would admit our borrowing Twelve Mil- lions of money at the rate of Intereft here affumed. The fourth column, which contains the Accumulation of Stock, is in the beginning much fmallerthan the increafe of Debt, but is nearer to it in proportion ns it goes farther on, and by degrees overtakes it, and begins to reduce the actual Amount of the prefent Debt, r! * The ( 1 ) The fifth column is particularly worthy of attention, Jt confifts of the actual difFe^ rence between the Increafe of Debt, and the Accumulation of Stock. Now, though the accumulated Stock bears a greater proportion to the increafed Debt in every fucceeding period than it did before, yet the actual dif-* ference is in a few of the earlier periods greater than in the preceding one. Thus in the third and fourth period, Thirty-one Millions bears a greater proportion to Sixty Millions, than Twenty-one Millions does to Forty-five Millions : yet the actual in- creafe of Debt is Twenty-eight Millions in the latter, and only Twenty-three Millions in the former. But after the fixth period, the debt due to the public creditors begins to diminim, it being then increafed Thirty- three Millions above the prefent Debt, and in the next period only Thirty-two Millions j fo that on this plan we fee the greateft Sum for which this Country can ever be morU 6 gaged, gaged, is little more than Thirty^three Millions more than at the beginning of the year 1786; and that happens entirely from the application of a fingle Million annually for twenty-feven years, in which period we have incurred a new Debt of Ninety Millions, or between Three and Four Millions every year during the whole time. Such is the para- dox which the difference between Simple and Compound Intereft is alone able to folve. The next obfervable period is the tenth, wherein it appears, that the increafe of Debt is nearly done away, for at the end of that period Eight Millions appear due to the public creditors, above the original Two hundred and forty Millions; but in the next line the balance is Eight Millions the other way, and from that time. The Sum in the fifth column is always to be fubftracted from Two hundred and forty Millions, to give the Sum for which the Country is liable, to B 2 fag be called on. This continues to diminish till after the fixteenth period, at which time Forty Millions remain, but the feventeenth Shewing, that Two hundred and fixty-nine Millions have been bought, more than the increaie of the Debt, and the old Debt being but Two hundred and forty Millions, fhews, that before that time, no more Stock would have remained to buy, and confequently no Debt would remain. It therefore follows, that the difference to the Public, at the end of feventy-two years, would be, that if' One Million per annum be employed, as propofed, we {hall only be Forty Millions in Debt; and if it be not fo employed, we (hall be Four hundred and eighty Millions in Debt, the Intercft and Taxes having all along remained the fame, except as to the mere Sum of One Million per annum. It ( '3 ) It now only remains to fhew, how the Table is to be^ moft readily applied to any other flate of facts. It has appeared before, that four years and a half was the period, in which any annual Sum, employed in buying Stock, would have purchafed Stock to the amount of fix times itfelf, at fomething above 80 fer Cent, for 3 per Cents. It has alfo been {hewn, that a longer or Ihorter period would be neceflary for fuch an effect, if the price of Stock was higher or lower : the ufe therefore to be made of the Table, confifts in a very eafy and almoft obvious artifice. Let the fourth column be deemed invaria- ble, and confidered merely as a column of periods, each of uncertain duration. But fuch as will, at the given Price of Stock, amount ( 14 ) amount to fix times the Sum of money ap- plied in one year in 3 per Cent. Stock. Thus at 80 fer Cent, it was found fome- thing more than this effect was produced in four years and a half: therefore we may fay, it would have been exactly produced, had the Stock been bought at about 81 per Cent. So it was fhewn, that at 90 per Cent, this effect would not have been quite produced in five years, but at 88, or 89, we may fay, it would have been exactly produced. Again, at 60 per Cent, we found it con- fiderably more than performed in three years and a half; fo that we may conclude, it would have been exactly done in that time if Stock had been at 62 or 63. The Stock actually purchafed laft year, ending at Midfummcr laft, has been at dif- ferent { ?s ) ferent prices, from 73 to 75 per Cent, and at this rate each period would be about four years. Should this continue the true price, or mould any perfon have reafon to expect it to be fo, for fome years to come, he will expect with equal reafon, that the accumu- lated Stock will, in twenty-four years, be equal to what in the Table is fet down as the produce of twenty-feven years, and fo of any other price of Stock. It now only remains to obferve upon the third column, as to the variations it may be liable to. Whoever confiders the time our prefent Debt was growing to One hundred and forty Millions, and the vaft wars we had to fuftain, will think, a plentiful allowance has been made for the probability of future increafe : and and if he further refle&s on the extravagant expences of the laft 'war, in proportion to the forces employed, will hardly allow, that the prefent debt could have yet fairly arifen to Two hundred Millions inftead of Two hundred and forty. Perhaps the proportion may not be much altered by the price of Stock, becaufe if Twelve Millions of money may be had for Fifteen Millions of Stock, when %per Cents. are at 80 /. only Nine Millions can be had > for the fame when they are at 60 /. So that on the whole the difference to the Public may not be great, whether the funds are high or low, provided the Sinking Fund is allowed to operate in war as well as in peace. But it is to be hoped that a peace of fome duration, and honeft management if war mufl come, will prove, that the third column is upon the whole taken far too high. To conclude, Wifdom and Chriftianity bid as ( 17 ) us pray for peace, but we have no reafon to fear war. No poffible combination of powers can in the next feven years force us to add One Million ptr annum to our prefent bur- thens, which is more than can be faid for the refources of any one of thofe who fhould be fo combined againft us. Note, Although the foregoing Table is carried on to the total extinction of the Na^ tional Debt, it is very problematical whether fuch an event is on the whole defirable* But we have only been examining the power of fuch a fund, and not the moft expedient degree of that power for us to employ. Parliament feems to have adopted an idea of this nature, by providing, that when an in- come of Four Millions is purchafed, the furplus (hall go in eafe of Taxes. But it would net be difficult to point out fome re- fources not yet attended to, by which the Revenue might be fo increafed immediately, C a. ( 13 ) as to eafe the Public of fome part of their burthens immediately, and yet apply more than one Million to the purchafe of Stock : this may probably be the fubje6l of a future invefligation. END OF PART II. NEW BOOKS, Printed for JOHN STQCKDALE, PICCADILIY, LONDON. THE HISTORY OF THE REVOLUTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA, from a Britifh Province to an Independent State. By DAVID RAMSAY, M. D. Member of the American Congrefs. (Illuilrated with a large Map of South Carolina and Parts adjacent, {hewing the Movements of the Britiih and American Armies, together with fevcral other Plans, fhewing the Difpofitiori and Stations of the Fleets and Armies) in two large Volumes Octavo, Price i2S. in Boards. 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