UC SOUTHERN REGIONAL LIBRARY (-AGILITY 
 
 AA 001 189 124 9 
 
 SRLh / 
 
 YRt ^ 
 
 Issued November 25, 1911. 
 
 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, 
 BUREAU OF STATISTICS— CIRCULAR 17 (Revised). 
 
 VICTOR H. OLMSTED, Chief. 
 
 GOYERNMENT CROP REPORTS: 
 
 THEIR VALUE, SCOPE, AND PREPARATION. 
 
 WASHINGTON : GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1911
 
 ORGANIZATION OF BUREAU OP STATISTICS. 
 
 Statistician and Chief: Victor H. Olmsted. 
 Associate Statistician: Nat. C. Murray. 
 Assistant Statistician: Samuel A. Jones. 
 Chief Clerk: Frank G. Kelsey. 
 
 Division of Domestic Crop Reports: Fred. J. Blair, Statistical Scientist in Charge. 
 Division of Production and Distribution: George K. Holmes, Statistical Scientist in 
 
 Charge. 
 Division of Research and Reference: Charles M. Daugherty, Statistical Scientist in 
 
 Charge. 
 Crop Reporting Board : 
 
 Victor H. 0lm3ted, Chairman; Nat. C. Murray, Associate Statistician; George 
 K. Holmes; two or more persons called in from the corps of special field 
 agents and State statistical agents. 
 
 (2)
 
 LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL 
 
 U. S. Department of Agriculture, 
 
 Bureau of Statistics, 
 WasJiington, D. C, October 10, 1911 '. 
 Sir: I have the honor to transmit herewith and recommend for 
 pubHcation a revision of Circular 17 of this bureau, entitled "Govern- 
 ment Crop Reports: Their Value, Scope, and Preparation." This 
 material has been prepared in the present convenient form so as to 
 meet numerous inquiries as to the value, methods, and scope of the 
 crop-reporting service of this department. 
 
 Very respectfully, 
 
 Victor H. Olmsted, 
 
 Chief of Bureau, 
 Hon. James Wilson, 
 
 Secretary of Agriculture. 
 
 [Cir 17] (3)
 
 CONTENTS. 
 
 Value of Government crop reports 7 
 
 Origin of the crop-reporting service 10 
 
 Methods of crop reporting 11 
 
 Scope of crop reports 12 
 
 Transmission of reports to bureau by correspondents 14 
 
 Preparation of reports '. 15 
 
 Method of issuing reports 16 
 
 [Cir 17] (5)
 
 GOVERNMENT CROP REPORTS : THEIR VALUE, SCOPE, 
 AND PREPARATION. 
 
 VALUE OF GOVERNMENT CROP REPORTS. 
 
 Prices of agricultural products are primarily governed by the law 
 of supply and demand; therefore early information concerning the 
 supply is of value to all. Those who produce and those who con- 
 sume are vitally interested as well as the dealer who stands between 
 them. The mutual relations and interests of agriculture, industry, 
 commerce, and labor demand that there should be pubhshed at brief 
 intervals during the crop season reliable information on the condition, 
 acreage, production, and value of the principal crops, by States and 
 agricultural areas. 
 
 The question is frequently asked, Of what value are Government 
 crop reports to farmers? 
 
 The Government crop reports are especially valuable and bene- 
 ficial to farmers, who are benefited by them both directly and indi- 
 rectly. All farmers benefit by them in an indii*ect way, but only 
 those who read these reports and ''keep posted" by them are 
 benefited in a direct way. 
 
 It is well known that speculators and large dealers in farm prod- 
 ucts do not depend entirely upon Government reports for informa- 
 tion concerning crop conditions. They have traveling agents and 
 correspondents (usually local buyers) throughout the United States, 
 who keep them posted ; and the large buyer or speculator, in return, 
 gives to these local buyers or correspondents information in regard 
 to general conditions. These local buyers know the conditions of 
 crops in their vicinity better, as a rule, than the average farmer, 
 because it is their business to keep well informed. Tlie farmer can 
 not, by refusing to report for his locahty the condition of crops, 
 prevent buyers or speculators from knowing the condition of the 
 crop. But how about the farmer, if Government crop reports, 
 wliich are made up largely "by and for liim, should be discontinued ? 
 He may know very well the condition of crops in his own locality, 
 but he must depend upon reports of others, in the newspapers or 
 otherwise, for the conditions of the entire crop. Prices in his local 
 market are influenced, as a rule, more by the condition of the whole 
 
 [Cir 17] (7)
 
 8 
 
 crop than by local conditions. The entire wheat crop of his county 
 may be destroyed and prices be low, if the entire crop is large, or 
 his county may have a bumper crop and prices be very high, if the 
 entire crop be short. 
 
 Some private crop reports published in newspapers are honestly 
 prepared and more or less reUable; on the other hand, misleading 
 crop reports are frequently sent throughout the country to affect 
 prices in the interest of speculators. Does the average farmer know 
 which reports are rehable and which are sent out to mislead? The 
 Government reports are intended to enable farmers to keep them- 
 selves informed as to the general conditions. The question, then, 
 resolves itself to this: Does it benefit the farmer to "keep posted"? 
 
 But even those farmers who do not keep posted are indirectly 
 benefited by the publication of Government crop reports, for these 
 reports check and lessen the injurious effects of false reports sent 
 out in the interest of speculators. As a pohce and constable force 
 tends to check but not entirely prevent crime, so Government 
 reports check but do not entirely prevent the circulation of false 
 and injurious reports. 
 
 The more certainty there is as to the supply of and demand for 
 a crop the less hazard or speculation there is in the business of dis- 
 tributing the crop, to the benefit, in the long run, of both producer 
 and consumer. 
 
 Large manufacturing fu'ms, agricultural implement or hardware 
 companies, who neither buy nor sell farm products, are much inter- 
 ested in the prospects and conditions of crops. This knowledge 
 enables them to distribute more economically their wares, sending 
 much to sections where crops are good and farmers have the power 
 to buy, and less to sections of crop shortage, and therefore with less 
 buying power. Few farmers reaHze how much is saved by the even 
 distribution of wares wliich they buy, wMcli is secured from a knowl- 
 edge of crop prospects. In this saving farmers in the long run are 
 benefited. 
 
 It is important to railroads to know the probable size of crops in 
 the country in order to provide sufficient cars to ship the grain. The 
 more nearly they can learn the size of the crops the better able are 
 they to move them economically. Here, again, in the long run, farmers 
 are indirectly benefited by the cheaper distribution of the crop, due 
 to better information of crop conditions. 
 
 Under modern trade regulations and conditions, prompt and reli- 
 able information regarding agricultural areas, prospects, and yields 
 is also an important factor in the proper conduct of commercial, 
 industrial, and transportation enterprises. The earlier the informa- 
 tion regarding the probable production of the great agricultural 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 commodities can be made public, the more safely can the business of 
 the country be managed from year to year. 
 
 Retail dealers in all hnes of goods, whether in city or country, 
 order from wholesale merchants, jobbers, or manufacturers the goods 
 they expect to sell many weeks, frequently months, before actual 
 purchase and shipment. Jobbers follow the same course, and manu- 
 facturers produce the goods and wares handled by merchants of 
 every class far ahead of their actual distribution and consumption. 
 
 For example, retail slio.e dealers place their orders in summer for 
 shoes to be sold during the fall, winter, or following spring months. 
 Wholesale shoe dealers and jobbers, similarly, order from manu- 
 facturers the particular quahties and styles of shoes indicated by 
 the orders of the retail dealers in such quantities as the orders show 
 to be necessary. The manufacturers, constantly receiving these 
 orders, adjust, as closely as they can, their purchases of material, 
 employment of operatives, and quantity of output so as to enable 
 them to supply the quantity of shoes which have been or are likely 
 to be ordered, their aim being, on the one hand, to meet fully and 
 promptly the requirements of trade (in other words, the demand of 
 the purchasing pubhc) and, on the other hand, to avoid such over- 
 production as will result in a large surplus unsalable except at a loss. 
 
 The same ideas and rules prevail throughout every branch of 
 trade, commerce, and transportation, the shoe business being simply 
 an example of other hnes of business in the matter of "doing things 
 in advance." 
 
 Now, it is universally conceded that farming — agriculture — is the 
 basic industry upon which all other industries greatly depend. The 
 measure of the country's crops is to a large extent the measure of 
 the country's prosperity, and the purchasing power of the people is 
 increased or diminished as the crops are bountiful or meager. There- 
 fore the commercial interests of the country are vitally affected by 
 the quantity and quahty of the crops; and it becomes a matter of 
 vast importance to them to know "in advance" what the crop pros- 
 pects are during the growing season and what the output is at harvest. 
 
 With such information carefully and scientifically gathered and 
 compiled, and honestly disseminated, so that it can be depended upon 
 to be as rehable as any forecast or estimate can possibly be, and 
 reUed upon as emanating from an impartial and disinterested source, 
 the merchants and manufacturers of the country can certainly act 
 with a degree of prudence and intelligence not possible were the 
 information lacking. 
 
 If reports show, during the growing season, that the condition of 
 wheat is such as to indicate a full crop on a large area, the merchants 
 of the wheat-producing sections of the country know that they can 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 10 
 
 give liberal orders for goods to be handled by them several weeks or 
 months later; the manufacturers, located far from the wheat fields, 
 know where there will be a large demand for such of their products 
 as are used by all dependent upon the wheat industry; the railroad 
 companies know they will have heavy freights to transport; and so 
 the advance knowledge regarding the probable future outcome of the 
 crop serves as a gviide to every branch of commerce and trade con- 
 nected with the wheat-growing areas of the country. The same is 
 true as to the other crops — corn, cotton, oa^ts, rye, tobacco, etc. 
 
 If, on the other hand, the condition of growing crops is unfavor- 
 able, rehable information to that effect is equally, in fact more, 
 important to trade and commerce than when the promise is good. 
 For, when conditions are unfavorable, the merchants, manufacturers, 
 and transporters must move with a degree of caution not necessary 
 when the prospects are highly encouraging. 
 
 It was to remedy the evils and to subserve and protect the interests 
 of aU, as above noted, that Congress provided for issuing monthly 
 crop reports, and the crop-reporting service of the Department of 
 Agriculture aims to supply the pubhc at large with impartial, unbiased 
 information regarding crop areas, conditions, and yields which, it 
 must be apparent, is highly essential and beneficial not only to 
 farmers, but also, equally, to our commercial interests of every kind 
 and class. 
 
 ORIGIN OF THE CROP-REPOIITING SERVICE. 
 
 The first enactment authorizing the collection of agricultural sta- 
 tistics by the Department of Agriculture was the act, passed May 15, 
 1862, establishing the department, "the general design and duties 
 of which shall be to acquire and to diffuse among the people of 
 the United States information on subjects connected with agricul- 
 ture, in the most general and comprehensive sense of that word." 
 The commissioner was required by this act to "procure and preserve 
 all information concerning agriculture which he can obtain by means 
 of books, correspondence, and by practical and scientific experi- 
 ments, accurate records of which experiments shall be kept in his 
 office, by the collection of statistics, and by any other appropriate 
 means within his power." 
 
 The first appropriation for collecting agricultural statistics by the 
 department was provided for by the act of February 25, 1863, which 
 was made in bulk for the work of the department, amounting in all 
 to $90,000. The then Commissioner of Agriculture allotted a part of 
 this amount for collecting agricultural statistics, and appointed a 
 statistician for that purpose. For the fiscal year entk^l June 30, 
 1865, the first distinct and separate provision was made for (jollecting 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 11 
 
 agricultural statistics for information and reports, and the amount 
 of $20,000 was appropriated. 
 
 From an allotment of a few thousand dollars each year at first the 
 crop-reporting service has been evolved, perfected, and enlarged into 
 the Bureau of Statistics of this department. 
 
 The appropriation act for the Department of Agriculture for the 
 fiscal year ended June 30, 1912, carried appropriations of about 
 $232,000 for the Bureau of Statistics. As the appropriations for the 
 statistical and crop-reporting service have been gradually increased 
 during the past several years, the field service and organization of 
 the bureau have been correspondingly enlarged. 
 
 METHODS OF CROP REPORTING. 
 
 The Bureau of Statistics issues each month detailed reports relating 
 to agricultural conditions throughout the United States, the data 
 upon which they are based being obtained through a special field 
 service, a corps of State statistical agents, and a large body of vol- 
 untary correspondents composed of the following classes: County 
 correspondents, township correspondents, individual farmers, and 
 special cotton correspondents. 
 
 The special field service consists of 20 traveling agents, each 
 assigned to report for a separate group of States. These agents are 
 especially qualified by statistical training and practical knowledge 
 of crops. They systematically travel over the districts assigned to 
 them, carefully note the development of each crop, keep in touch with 
 best informed opinion, and render written and telegraphic reports 
 monthly and at such other times as required. 
 
 There are 47 State statistical agents, located in different States. 
 Each reports for his State as a whole, and maintains a corps of 
 correspondents entirely independent of those reporting directly 
 to the department at Wasliington. These State statistical corre- 
 spondents report each month directly to the State agent on 
 schedules furnished him. The reports are then tabulated and 
 weighted according to the relative product or area of the given crop 
 in each county represented, and are summarized by the State agent, 
 who coordinates and analyzes them in the light of his personal 
 knowledge of conditions, and from them prepares liis reports to the 
 department. 
 
 There are approximately 2,800 counties of agricultural importance 
 in the United States. In each the department has a principal county 
 correspondent who maintains an organization of several assistants. 
 These county correspondents are selected with special reference to 
 their qualifications and constitute an efficient branch of the crop- 
 reporting service. They make the county the geographical unit of 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 12 
 
 their reports, and, after obtaining data each month from their assist- 
 ants and supplementing these with information obtained from their 
 own observation and knowledge, report directly to the department 
 at Wasliington. 
 
 In the townsliips and voting precincts of the United States in 
 which farming operations are extensively carried on the department 
 has township correspondents who make the townsliip or precinct the 
 geographical basis of reports, which they also send directly to the 
 department each month. There are about 32,000 township corre- 
 spondents. 
 
 Finally, at the end of the growing season a large number of indi- 
 vidual farmers and planters report on the results of their own indi- 
 vidual farming operations during the year; valuable data are also 
 secured from 30,000 mills and elevators. 
 
 With regard to cotton, all the information from the foregoing 
 sources is supplemented by that furnished by special cotton corre- 
 spondents, embracing a large number of persons intimately concerned 
 in the cotton industry; and, in addition, inquiries in relation to 
 acreage and yield per acre of cotton are addressed to the Bureau of the 
 Census's list of cotton ginners through the courtesy of that bureau. 
 
 SCOPE OF CROP REPORTS. 
 
 Beginning with planting, data are gathered and reports made 
 as to the condition and acreage of each of the principal agricultural 
 products, such as corn, wheat, oats, rye, barley, potatoes, hay, cotton, 
 tobacco, rice, etc. As the crops progress the prospects are reflected 
 in monthly condition reports upon each growing crop; such reports 
 being expressed in percentages, 100 representing a normal condition. 
 A normal condition of 100 would be the condition of the plant where 
 it gives promise of such a crop as might be expected if the plant were 
 not subjected to damaging influences, but grew bountifully and under 
 favorable conditions, including favorable weather, freedom from 
 damaging insects, etc. A ''normal crop" is not a crop which might 
 be raised by exceptional skill or by an exceptional farmer, but such 
 a crop as, planted and cultivated, will be produced if not subjected 
 to damaging influences. Condition reports, expressed in percentages 
 of a normal, when published, are coupled with a statement of the 
 averages of similar reports at corresponding dates in preceding 
 years (usually ten-year averages) ; by such comparison the condition 
 of crops in comparison with the average condition is readily obtained. 
 At harvest time the yields per acre are ascertained, which, being 
 multiplied by the acreage figures already ascertained, give the pro- 
 duction or quantitative figures for the year. 
 
 Eleven monthly reports on the principal crops are received yearly 
 from each of the special field agents, county correspondents. State 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 13 
 
 statistical agents, and township correspondents, and one report relat- 
 ino- to the acreage and production of general crops annuallj^ from 
 individual farmers. 
 
 Tlie following tabulation is designed to show, in abbreviated form, 
 the scope of monthly crop inquiries of the Bureau of Statistics, in 
 1911, and the time and nature of inquiry for each crop. Slight 
 modifications may be made from time to time. Characters are 
 placed xmder months in which reports are pubUshed. Explanatory- 
 key is given at the bottom of the tabulation. 
 
 Scope of monthly crop inquiries. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Crop. 
 
 Jan. 
 
 Mar. Apr. 
 
 May. 
 
 June. 
 
 July. 
 
 Aug. 
 
 Sept. 
 
 Oct. 
 
 Nov. 
 
 Dec. 
 
 Cereals: 
 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 
 sf 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 
 c 
 
 OS 
 Ac 
 c 
 sc 
 c 
 AYq 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 Yq 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 Yq 
 
 c 
 
 w 
 Yq 
 sYq 
 
 w 
 
 F 
 
 
 
 
 F 
 
 
 sfm 
 sf 
 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 
 c 
 Ac 
 
 c 
 
 s 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 F 
 
 Oats 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 
 F 
 
 
 
 
 rF 
 
 
 v+ 
 
 "sf" 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 AcF 
 
 Wheat (all) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 ac 
 
 c 
 Yq 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 pq 
 
 
 
 Yq 
 
 w 
 w 
 
 F 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 re 
 
 AcF 
 
 Forage (grasses): 
 
 Alfalfa 
 
 
 
 p 
 p 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 P 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 ac 
 
 c 
 Yq 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 P 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 Ac 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 p 
 
 c 
 
 yp 
 
 
 Hav (all) 
 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 sfc 
 
 c 
 
 F 
 
 
 
 
 p 
 p 
 
 ayp 
 
 
 Millet 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 Timothy 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Fruits: 
 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 e 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 }T>q 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 p 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 p 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 ypq 
 j-pq 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 p 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 p 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 p 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 D 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 ypq 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Watermelons 
 
 
 
 
 
 e 
 P 
 
 c 
 
 p 
 
 
 
 
 Vegetables: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 Ac 
 ac 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 e 
 
 Ac 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 p 
 p 
 p 
 p 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 p 
 p 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 p 
 yq 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 Beans (Lima) 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 
 SV + 
 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Onions 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Yq 
 
 yq 
 
 F 
 
 Sweet potatoes 
 
 
 
 
 
 V 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Miscellaneous: 
 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 F 
 
 Ac 
 
 "Yq" 
 
 rY 
 
 
 
 
 F 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Peanuts 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 j-pq 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Sorghum 
 
 
 
 
 
 ac 
 c 
 c 
 Act 
 w 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 y 
 
 c 
 c 
 Yq 
 
 V 
 
 Sugar beets 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 ac 
 
 ayp 
 TF 
 
 Sugarcane 
 
 
 
 
 
 Tobacco 
 
 
 
 
 
 Wool 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 14 
 
 Scope of monthly crop inquiries — Continued. 
 
 * Crop. 
 
 Jan. 
 
 Mar. 
 
 Apr. 
 
 May. 
 
 June. 
 
 July. 
 
 Aug. 
 
 Sept. 
 
 Oct. 
 
 Nov. 
 
 Dec. 
 
 Live stock: 
 
 nv4- 
 nv 
 nv+ 
 nv+ 
 
 
 de 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Other cattle 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 dec 
 de 
 dec 
 deb 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 nv+ 
 nv+ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 he 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 I""" 
 
 
 
 
 Key.— (A) Acreage, total production, percentage of last year and total, (a) Acreage in percentage of last 
 year only, (b) Number of breeding sows compared with last year, (c) Condition, (d) Losses from disease, 
 (e) Losses from exposure. (F) Final estimates of acreage, and value, (f ) Percentage of crop shipped out of 
 county where gro^vn. (h) Number stock hogs compared vnth year ago. (m) Percentage of crop of mer- 
 chantable quality, (n) Number, (p) Percentage of full crop produced, (q) Quality, (r) Acreage remain- 
 ing after abandonment. (3) Supplies on farms, (t) Area and condition by types. (T) Acreage, production 
 and value by types in December supplement, (v) Values. Prices of products marked (v+) in January 
 are asked each month, (w) Weight per bushel or fleece. (Y) Yield per acre and total production, 
 (y) Yield per acre only. (%) Percentage done May 1. 
 
 TRANSMISSION OF REPORTS TO BUREAU BY CORRESPONDENTS. 
 
 Previous to the preparation and issuance of the bureau's reports 
 each month the correspondents of the several classes send their re- 
 ports separately and independently to the department at Washington. 
 
 In order to prevent any possible access to reports which relate to 
 speculative crops, and to render it absolutely impossible for prema- 
 ture information to be derived from them, all of the reports from the 
 State statistical agents, as well as those of the special field agents, 
 are sent to the Secretary of Agriculture in specially prepared en- 
 velopes. By an arrangement with the postal authorities these envel- 
 opes are delivered to the Secretary of Agriculture m sealed mail 
 pouches. These pouches are opened only by the Secretary or Assist- 
 ant Secretary, and the reports, with seals unbroken, are immediately 
 placed in the safe in the Secretaiy's office, where they remain sealed 
 until the morning of the day on which the bureau report is issued, 
 when they are dehvered to the statistician by the Secretary or the 
 Assistant Secretary. The combination for opening the safe in which 
 such documents are kept is known only to the Secretary and the 
 Assistant Secretary of Agriculture. Reports from special field agents 
 and State statistical agents residing at points more than 500 miles 
 from Washington are sent by telegraph, in cipher. The reports 
 from the county correspondents, township correspondents, and other 
 voluntary agents are sent to the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics 
 by mail in sealed envelopes. 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 15 
 
 PREPARATION OF REPORTS. 
 
 The reports received by the department from the different classes 
 of individual correspondents are tabulated and compiled and the 
 figure for each separate State computed. After the reports from the 
 different counties are tabulated a true weighted figure for the State 
 is secured by taking into consideration the relative value which the 
 total acreage or production of each county in the State bears to the 
 total acreage or production of the State. The weighted figure show- 
 ing the value of the county is appHed to the acreage, yield per acre, 
 or condition, whichever it may be, and from the totals of the weights 
 and the extensions a weighted average for the State is ascertained. 
 
 The work of making the final crop estimates each month culminates 
 at sessions of the crop-reporting board, composed of five members, 
 (presided over by the statistician and chief of bureau as chairman), 
 whose services are brought into requisition each crop-reporting day 
 from among the statisticians and officials of the bureau, and special 
 field and State statistical agents who are called to Washington for 
 the purpose. 
 
 The personnel of the board is changed each month. The meetings 
 are held in the office of the statistician, which is kept locked during 
 sessions, no one being allowed to enter or leave the room or the 
 bureau, and all telephones being disconnected. 
 
 When the board has assembled, reports and telegrams regarding 
 speculative crops from State and field agents, wliich have been placed 
 unopened in a safe in the office of the Secretary of Agriculture, are 
 delivered by the Secretary, opened, and tabulated ; and the figures, by 
 States, from the several classes of correspondents and agents relating 
 to all crops dealt Avith are tabulated in convenient parallel columns; 
 the board is thus provided with several separate estimates covering 
 each State and each separate crop, made independently by the respec- 
 tive classes of correspondents and agents of the biu-eau, each report- 
 ing for a territory or geographical imit with which he is thoroughly 
 familiar. 
 
 Abstracts of the weather condition reports in relation to the dif- 
 ferent crops, by States, are also prepared from the weekly bidletins 
 of the Weather Bureau. With all these data before the board, each 
 individual member computes independently, on a separate sheet or 
 final computation slip, his own estimate of the acreage, condition, 
 or yield of each crop, or of the number, condition, etc., of farm 
 animals for each State separately. These results are then compared 
 and discussed by the board under the supervision of the chairman, 
 and the final figures for each State are decided upon. 
 
 [Cir 17]
 
 16 
 
 The estimates by States as finally determined by the board are 
 weighted by the acreage figures for the respective States, the result 
 for the United States being a true weighted average for each subject. 
 
 METHOD OF ISSUING REPORTS. 
 
 Reports in relation to cotton, after being prepared by the crop- 
 reporting board, and personally approved by the Secretary of Agri- 
 culture, are issued on the first or second day of each month during 
 the growing season, and reports relating to the principal farm crops 
 and live stock on the seventh or eighth day of each month. In order 
 that the information contained in these reports may be made avail- 
 able simultaneously throughout the entire United States, they are 
 handed, at an announced hour on report days, to all apphcants and 
 to the Western Union Telegraph Co. and the Postal Telegraph 
 Cable Co., who have branch offices in the Department of Agricultiu-e, 
 for transmission to the exchanges and to the press. These com- 
 panies have reserved their lines at the designated time, and forward 
 immediately the figures of most interest. A mimeograph or multi- 
 graph statement, containing such estimates of condition or actual 
 production, together with the corresponding estimates of former 
 years for comparative purposes, is prepared and mailed immediately 
 to newspaper publications. The same day printed cards containing 
 the essential facts concerning the most important crops of the report 
 are mailed to the 77,000 post offices throughout the United States 
 for public display, thus placing most valuable information within 
 the farmer's immediate reach. 
 
 Promptly after the issuing of the report, it, together with other 
 statistical information of value to the farmer and the country at 
 large, is published in the Crop Reporter, an 8-page publication of 
 the Bureau of Statistics, under the authority of the Secretary of 
 Agriculture. An edition of over 165,000 copies is distributed to the 
 correspondents and other interested parties throughout the United 
 States each month. 
 
 [Cir 17] 
 
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