UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA WALNUT SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION H. E. ERDMAN and W. U. FUHRIMAN BULLETIN 475 September, 1929 CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GIANNINI FOUNDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA 1929 OBJECTS OF THIS STUDY This study is one of a series on the various crops and products of California. The object of making it was to assemble, analyze and present in convenient form such facts and figures bearing on the California walnut industry as would help walnut growers understand economic conditions in their industry. Developments in any industry result from many independent actions taken by individuals. If each individual has a clear understanding of the industry as a whole, the combined action of all is most likely to result in sound development for the industry. It is hoped that the facts herein presented will promote such an understanding. Growers can readily keep up to date some of the more important tables by entering additional figures as they become available from the sources mentioned. CONTENTS PAGE Objects of this Study 2 Summary 5 Nut growing in the United States 7 Walnut-producing areas of California 8 Distribution of walnut acreage 8 Trend of bearing acreage 10 Walnut production in the United States 11 Future trend of California production 14 Market classification of California walnuts 17 Walnut production in foreign countries 21 France 21 Italy 24 Roumania 26 China 26 Czechoslovakia 28 Spain 28 Asiatic Turkey 29 Jugoslavia 29 International trade in walnuts 29 Changes in foreign trade since pre-war years 30 Summary on international trade 32 Imports of walnuts into the United States 35 Unshelled walnut imports 35 Shelled walnut imports 36 Seasonal distribution of imports 36 United States walnut imports by countries of origin 40 Unshelled walnuts 40 Shelled walnuts 40 Tariff 42 Walnut consumption in the United States 42 Prices of California w r alnuts 45 Relation of opening price to growers' prices 45 Opening price and purchasing power 45 Appendix of tables 49 LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. Bearing and non-bearing walnut trees, and average number of trees per farm reporting, in Pacific Coast states, in area outside of Pacific Coast states, and in the United States, 1920 8 2. California walnut acreages and plantings, 1914-1929, and forecasts of bear- ing acreages, 1930-1932 10 3. California walnut production (orchard run), 1895-1928, trend of produc- tion, and departure from trend 12 4. Bearing acreage, total production, and average yield per bearing acre of walnuts in California, 1914-1928 '. 15 5. Production of merchantable walnuts by counties, 1922-1928 16 6. Percentage of total California Walnut Growers Association shipments of walnuts in the several market classifications, 1914-1928 20 7. Estimated production of walnuts available for export in France, 1922-1928.. 24 8. Estimated production of walnuts available for export in Italy by commer- cial varieties, 1922-1928 25 9. Estimated production of walnuts »available for export in Roumania by dis- tricts, 1923-1928 25 10. Estimated production, consumption, and exports of walnuts from various countries 33 11. Imports of walnuts into United States, 1900-1927 34 12. Walnut imports by months 38 13. Production, imports, and apparent United States per-capita consumption of walnuts in equivalent of merchantable whole nuts, 1913-1914 to 1928-1929 44 14. Opening prices and purchasing power of California No. 1 soft-shell walnuts, 1898-1927 , 46 15. Deductions from opening price values as made by the California Walnut Growers Association, 1923-1927 48 16. California walnut acreage by counties, 1924-1929 50 17. Walnut exports from China by countries of destination, 1912-1925 51 18. Walnut exports from Italy by countries of destination, 1907-1926 52 19. Walnut exports from France by countries of destination, 1910-1928 53 20. Monthly imports of unshelled walnuts into the United States by country, 1924-1925 to 1927-1928 54 21. Monthly imports of shelled walnuts into the United States by country, 1924-1925 to 1927-1928 56 22. Imports of walnuts into United States by months for crop-sales years, 1912-1913 to 1927-1928 58 23. Opening prices as named in the organized walnut industry 59 WALNUT SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 1 H. E. ERDMANs and W. U. FUHRIMAN* SUMMARY Three kinds of nuts are produced on a commercially important scale in the United States — walnuts, pecans, and almonds. The United States production of two of these — almonds and walnuts — is confined almost entirely to California. Pecans are grown in the southern states from Texas to North Carolina. Walnut acreage in California has increased rapidly. Of the total walnut acreage of 1929, 31 per cent is not yet in bearing, and probably not over 40 per cent is in full bearing. The production of walnuts in California has increased at the rate of about 6.5 per cent a year. Whether recent heavy planting will maintain or increase the rate of growth in production will depend upon a number of factors. Chief among these are the facts that (1) some of the newer plantings are on inferior land on which yields will be disappointingly small; (2) current high prices for Valencia oranges are leading some growers to pull up walnut trees and plant to Valencia oranges; (3) in Los Angeles and Orange counties some walnut acreage is being subdivided ; (4) difficulties of controlling pests may lead some growers to pull up orchards; and (5) soil, water or irrigation problems are developing in some sections. In spite of these difficulties, prospects are for further increases in production in California. 1 Paper No. 2, The Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. 2 The following organizations and individuals have given the authors generous assistance in the preparation of this bulletin: the California Walnut Growers Association, the California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service, the Statistical and Historical Division of the United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics, and the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. Members of the University staff from whom numerous suggestions have been received are: R. W. Hodgson, L. D. Batchelor, W. B. Hooper, and S. W. Shear. Assistance is also acknowledged from Mrs. M. J. Abbott, Carl A. Scholl, Mrs. Ruth Howe, George Gardner, A. H. Bledsoe, and H. E. Tilden. 3 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economist in the Experi- ment Station, and Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. * Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Utah State Agricultural College. 6 University of California — Experiment Station Production in certain foreign countries is likewise increasing. Unless purchasing power in these countries increases they will prob- ably continue to offer keen competition to California producers. Imports both of shelled and unshelled walnuts have, however, decreased during the past three years (see table 11). The main foreign walnut-producing countries are, in order of their importance, France, Roumania, Italy, and China, France is by far the greatest producer of walnuts and has supplied about 25 per cent of our unshelled and 70 per cent of our shelled imports during recent years. Italy has supplied around 45 per cent of our unshelled imports. China has supplied about 16 per cent of the unshelled and 17 per cent of the shelled imports of the United States. Roumania sends but few walnuts to the United States, but its crop is a large factor in the European trade. The exports from France, Italy, and China have increased materially since pre-war years, and the United States has absorbed most of this increase. Since most of the California crop is sold unshelled, it is the imports of unshelled walnuts that compete most directly with the California crop. A rapid increase in California production may bring about a decrease in the unshelled imports to the United States in the future by keeping prices in the United States at so low a level that foreign producers will find other markets more profitable. A factor that must be considered by California producers of walnuts is the increasing production of pecans. Recent heavy plant- ings in the southeastern part of the United States are of budded stock and may be expected to lead to greatly increased production. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation NUT GROWING IN THE UNITED STATES Three kinds of nuts are produced on a commercially important scale in the United States — walnuts, pecans, and almonds. 5 Over 99 per cent of the almond trees and about 92 per cent of the walnut trees in the United States are in California. 6 Pecan growing, on the other hand, is centered in the belt extending from central Missouri across Oklahoma to south central Texas and to the coastal plain in Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, Mississippi, and nothern Florida. About one-half of the pecan trees are in Texas and Georgia. Nut growing has increased rapidly in the past fifteen years. Just how rapidly it is difficult to say in exact percentage. The United States census reports the number of trees for recent cenus periods including that of 1920, but in the 1925 census of agriculture the number of almond and walnut trees are not mentioned. The number of trees per acre varies widely from section to section, and earlier plantings were much closer than later ones. A calculation made by the writers indi- cates, however, that from 1910 to 1925 bearing acreage has increased roughly 375 per cent for almonds, 175 per cent for pecans, and about 140 per cent for walnuts. From the point of view of California walnut growers, the prospective growth of the pecan acreage is probably of most importance because price studies thus far made seem to indicate that serious competition may be met from that source. Census figures on the number of pecan trees are not satisfactory. They have obviously included only a portion of the wild trees from which nuts are harvested. There is no doubt, however, that there has been a rapid increase in the number of bearing trees and that the peak of bearing acreage is not yet in sight. 7 Moreover, there is a rapid increase in the number of budded trees and the 1925 census figures for non-bearing trees probably represent largely budded trees. 5 Peanuts should perhaps be mentioned as a fourth group, since to some extent they compete with other nuts, particularly for confectionary and baking purposes. e According to the United States Census of 1920, California had 91.7 per cent of the bearing and 78 per cent of the non-bearing trees. See table 1, p. 8. 7 The census figure for 1925 is 4,434,000 bearing and 4,439,000 non-bearing trees. At 15 trees per acre, this would mean 295,633 acres of bearing and 295,965 acres of non-bearing pecan trees. (See: U.S. Com. U.S. census of agriculture; summary of states 1925:48. 1928, and Fourteenth census of the United States, 1920; Agriculture 5:874. table 150. 1923.) A comparison of figures on pecan production (United States Department of Agriculture. Year- book of Agriculture 1927:865. 1928.) and census figures on number of trees in various states (U.S. Dept. Com. U. S. census of agriculture; summary by states 1925:48. 1928.) leads the authors to believe that the number of trees reported is too low in the states in which most of the trees are seedlings, particularly in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Texas. 8 University of California — Experiment Station In the case of almonds the bearing acreage may have reached its peak in 1929 unless recent fairly profitable prices bring on increased plantings. The peak of bearing acreage of walnuts is probably several years ahead unless there develops increased pulling up of orchards because of cultural difficulties in certain sections of the state or because prices of Valencia oranges hold up well for a few more years. The only important walnut-growing area outside of California is in the Willamette Valley of Oregon and the adjoining counties of Washington. This area has somewhat more than 5,000 acres. 8 In 1920 this area had 7 per cent of the bearing and 19.2 per cent of the non-bearing walnut trees of the country. Less than 2 per cent of the United States total were outside of Pacific Coast states in 1920. TABLE 1 Bearing and Non-Bearing Walnut Trees and Average Number of Trees per Farm Eeporting, in Pacific Coast States, in Area Outside of Pacific Coast States, and in the United States, 1920 Bearing Non-bearing Number of trees* Average number per farm reporting Per cent of total Number of trees* Average number per farm reporting Per cent of total California 1,274,434 88,695 10,703 16,229 82.19 27.64 10.68 3.98 917 6.4 0.8 1.1 455,814 93,214 18,760 15,454 51.24 21.95 14.00 3.94 78.2 Oregon 16.0 3.2 Remainder of the U. S 2.6 Total U. S 1,390,061 100.0 583,242 100.0 * Fourteenth Census of the United States, 1920; Agriculture, 5:879, table 153. 1923. Trees per farm reporting calculated by authors from census data. The data of Table 1 are now nearly a decade old. The 1925 Census of Agriculture does not give comparable data, but the relationships shown above have not changed appreciably since 1920. WALNUT-PRODUCING AREAS OF CALIFORNIA Distribution of Walnut Acreage. — The larger and most specialized walnut-growing region of California, comprising 76 per cent of the bearing and 67 per cent of the non-bearing acreage in 1929* lies in the southern part of the state and is scattered over parts of six counties — Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Santa Barbara. ^ s Unofficial estimates place total Oregon acreage at 8,000 or 9,000 acres. Schuster, C. E. Walnut growing in Oregon. Diamond Walnut News, 10(5): 8-9. Dec, 1928. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation Walnut Acreage by Counties, 1929 Fig. 1. — The principal walnut-growing areas are in southern California. On the whole, the acreage is in scattered areas, some of which lies as far north as Tehama County. 10 University of California — Experiment Station The walnut acreage outside of the above district is distributed rather widely over the state. The San Joaquin County area east of Stockton extends from Gait to Farmington. The Walnut Creek area of Contra Costa County extends from a distance north of Concord to a little south of Danville. The Santa Clara area includes the country from north of San Jose to Gilroy and extends west to Los Gatos. Another area lies along the south shore of Clear Lake in Lake County. An area near the city of Visalia in Tulare County has considerable acreage. These five counties have about 16 per cent of the total walnut acreage. The remaining 9 per cent of the acreage is in small widely scattered areas. The map in figure 1 pictures the distribution of walnut areas in a general way. The bar diagram at the bottom of figure 1 shows the bearing and non-bearing acreage for the more important counties. A large proportion of non-bearing acres in any county indicates that plantings have been relatively extensive there during recent years. Outside of the counties of the southern California district, already mentioned, Santa Clara, Lake, San Diego, and several less important counties show a relatively large proportion of non- bearing trees. TABLE 2 California Walnut Acreage and Plantings, 1914-1929, and Forecasts of Bearing Acreages, 1930-1932 Year Bearing acres Non-bearing acres* Plant- ings! Year Bearing acres Non-bearing acres* Plant- ings! 1914 34,138 34,453 35,379 45,687 48,520 50.900 58,963 61,781 65,530 66,951 68,572 69,629 13,132$ 20,363$ 20,5811: 22,277$ 18,809$ 1926 1927 1928 1929 71.779 75,307 83,252 87,564 43.079 50,657 46,460 39,921 9.672 1915 4,772 1916 3,022 1917 1918 1919 Forecast 1920 1921 1922 20, 862 § 21.546J 25,000 29,084 36,700 2,405 6,844 7,912 9,335 7,913 1930 1931 1932 93,700 101,300 107,500 1923 1924 1925 * Does not include plantings of the current years. fPIantings during Jan.-Mar. of years indicated. From annual issues of the California Crop Report. California State Dept. Agr. $ California State Comm. of Hort. Mo. Bui. 1914-1919. § Letter from N. I. Nielson, Fruit Statistician, California Coop. Crop Rept. Service, Mar. 16, 1929. 1 California State Dept. Agr. Mo. Bui. 12:363. July-Dec. 1923. Data taken from annual reports of California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service unless otherwise indicated. Trend of Bearing Acreage. — The bearing acreage of walnuts in California increased rapidly from 1916 to 1922. From 1922 to 1926, the increase was not so rapid. Beginning with 1927 acreage has again Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 11 increased more rapidly. In view of the fact that nearly a third of the total California walnut acreage of 1929 is non-bearing, and that the plantings during the past five years have averaged nearly 7,000 acres a year, it is apparent that increases in bearing acreage may be expected for several years to come. (See, however, the elements of uncertainty mentioned on page 17.) Table 2 gives the data for bearing acreage back to 1914 and for non-bearing acreage and plantings as far as data are available. The non-bearing acreage has increased each year for which data are avail- able since 1918, except during the last two years. WALNUT PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES9 California has in recent years furnished about 97 per cent of the walnuts produced in the United States. Outside of California, Oregon is the most important walnut-producing state and in 1928 produced about 1,000 tons, or about 4 per cent of California production. The production of walnuts in Oregon may be expected to increase con- siderably because of plantings in recent years, but this increase will not soon be a large factor in the total United States production. The production of walnuts outside of the three Pacific Coast states is probably not far from 1 per cent of the California production. In comparison with the total this is an insignificant amount, most of which doubtless is sold in scattered local markets. The increase in the California walnut crop during the past twenty- nine years is shown in table 3 and figure 3. 10 In general, the rate of increase in production has been fairly steady throughout this entire 9 for a discussion of the varieties of walnuts grown in California see: Batchelor, L. D., and O. Lee Braueher. Walnut culture in California. Cali- fornia Agr. Exp. Sta. Bul. 379. 1929. (In press.) !0 Significance of semi-logarithmic or ratio charts. — In picturing statistical data it is often desirable to emphasize comparisons of percentage or propor- tional changes rather than absolute amounts. For the purpose of showing such relative changes, a ratio scale, such as the vertical scale in figure 3, is most useful. Equal vertical distances on the semi-logarithmic paper on which the figure is plotted picture equal percentages (rates) of change. For convenience in plotting and reading, however, the scale has been numbered in thousands of tons. With the usual or arithmetic scale on ordinary cross-section paper such as was used in figure 2, the distance between the vertical lines 20 and 40 is twice as great as the distance from 10 to 20. In figure 3, however, the distance between 20 and 40 is just equal to the distance from 10 to 20, for the reason that 20 bears the same ratio to 40 that 10 does to 20. It is obvious that 20 is twice as great as 10; in other words, 20 is 100 per cent greater than 10. Like- wise 40 is twice as great as 20, or in other words 40 is 100 per cent greater. Equal distances on the scale correspond to equal relative or percentage changes, and not, as in figure 2, to equal absolute differences. Equal percentage increases over a series of years, when plotted on semi-logarithmic paper, are represented by a straight line. 12 University of California — Experiment Station period. The trend line indicates that there has been approximately a constant percentage increase of 6.5 per cent from year to year over the period. That is, each crop has normally been 6.5 per cent larger than the crop of the previous year. Measured in tons of walnuts pro- duced, the increase has been growing larger each year. Thus the normal increase of 1910 over 1909 was 660 tons; that of 1920 over 1919 was 1,200 tons, and that of 1928 over 1927 was about 1,980 tons. TABLE 3 California Wajlnut Production (Orchard Run), 1895-1928, Trend of Production, and Departure from Trend Year Actual production* tons Trend of productionf tons Percentage which actual is of trend per centt 1895 3,385 4,127 82.02 1896 6,200 4,393 141 13 1897 4,610 4,678 98 54 1898 5,650 4,980 113 45 1899 5,580 5,302 105 24 1900 5,430 5,644 96.20 1901 6,900 6,009 114 82 1902 8,570 6,398 133.94 1903 5,500 6,811 80.75 1904 7,590 7,251 104.67 1905 6,400 7,720 82.90 1906 7,000 8,219 85.16 1907 7,400 8,750 84.57 1908 9,200 9,315 98.76 1909 9,350 9,918 94.27 1910 9,600 10,560 90.90 1911 12,500 11,220 111.40 1912 11,250 11,970 93.98 1913 11,350 12,740 89.08 1914 8,900 13,560 65.63 1915 14,825 14,440 102.69 1916 14,600 15,370 94.99 1917 16,500 16,370 100.79 1918 19,950 17,430 114.45 1919 28,100 18,550 151.48 1920 21,000 19,750 106.32 1921 19,500 21,030 92.72 1922 27,000 22,390 120 58 1923 25,000 23,830 104 90 1924 22,500 25,380 88.65 1925 36,000 27,020 133.23 1926 15,000 28,760 52.15 1927 51,000 30,620 166.56 1928 25,000 32,600 76.68 1929 34,710 1930 36,950 • Kaufman, E. E. A California Crop Report for 1927. California Dept. Agr. Spec. Pub. 86: 35. 1928. t The trend of production has shown a constant percentage increase of about 6.5 per cent yearly. Actual calculations by method of least squares. The figures for 1929 and 1930 are not predictions. % Calculation by dividing actual by trend figures. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 13 California Walnut Acreage,, Bearing and Non-Bearing, 1914-1929, and Forecasted Bearing Acreage, 1930-1932 130 /20 NO \ so SO 70 «~ ^ SO $ <40\ n \A/os7~JbQort/*p ocreopm % IPIII " ■ Slip ii i i i i fSIA '/S VS V7 VS '/9 '20 '2f '22 *23 '24. '25 '26 '27 '28 '25? *30 '3/ Fig. 2. — Bearing acreage of walnuts has shown a rapid increase in recent years. 32 California Walnut Production (Orchard Eun), 1895 to 1928, and Trend of Production ■ 3C{ 0.2O V o M Acf-uo/ /at-otftjcS/ort • ■ ■ ■ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I III n n INI I Mill I II I Fig. 3. — Production has increased at the rate of about 6.5 per cent each year since 1895. 14 University of California — Experiment Station The annual crops have, of course, varied greatly from this trend as is shown in figure 3 and in column 3 of table 3. These variations have increased, not only absolutely, but also relatively. Such abrupt changes in supply lead to difficulties in marketing. An enormous crop one year requires strenuous sales effort if the crop is to be moved without ruinous cuts in price. Any permanent results of such effort are likely to be lost if consumer habits or trade interest cannot be capitalized because of a short crop the next year. Average Yield per Bearing Acre of California Walnuts, 1914-1928 /* /J * I" ft « n n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1 1 1 1 ii i n in ii 1 1 1 1 1 ii i ii in A9A* '/S '/€ V7 V3 VS V80 •*/ >ZZ 'Z3 *** 'ZS *26 '27 'ZS Fig. 4. — Yields of bearing walnut acreage in California have varied widely. Table 5 gives production of merchantable walnuts by county and by section. The group of counties north of the Tehachapi Mountains has been increasing in importance, as indicated by a rise in the per- centage of the total merchantable crop produced. Future trend of California Production. — Judging from present conditions, interpreted in the light of previous experience, it seems reasonable to expect a big increase in production of walnuts during Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 15 the next few years. The non-bearing walnut acreage of California is at present nearly half as large as the bearing acreage. Although 69 per cent of the acreage of 1929 is reported as bearing acreage, it is probable that not over 40 per cent of it is in full bearing, i.e., only about 40 per cent of the acreage has trees 16 years or more of age. 11 These facts point definitely to increased bearing acreage. During the past fifteen years, the bearing acreage has been a fair index to the trend of walnut production in California. During this period the average production has been around two-fifth of a ton (800 pounds) per bearing acre, as shown in table 4 and figure 4. The figures on average yield do not show any trend toward increased yields per acre from the numerous improvements in production or from the adoption of improved varieties, which in observed individual cases always lead to increased yields. Any favorable results are hidden in the averages because there are many instances where yields have decreased because certain production difficulties have become more general, because the percentage of partly bearing acreage has increased, or because lower-yielding lands have been planted. TABLE 4 Bearing Acreage, Total Production, and Average Yield per Bearing Acre of Walnuts in California, 1914-1928 Year Bearing acreage 1 Production 2 Average yield per acre 3 acres tons pounds 1914 34,138 8,900 521 1915 34,453 14,825 860 1916 35,379 14,600 825 1917 45,687 16,500 722 1918 48,520 19,950 822 1919 50,900 28,100 1,104 1920 58,963 21,000 712 1921 61,781 19,500 631 1922 65,530 27,000 824 1923 66,951 25,000 747 1924 68,572 22,500 656 1925 69,629 36,000 1,034 1926 71,779 15,000 417 1927 75,307 51,000 1,354 1928 83,252 25,000 600 Sources of data: Cols. 1 and 2 taken from: Kaufman, E. E., California Crop Report for 1927. Cali- fornia Dept. of Agr., Spec. Pub. 86: tables 22 and 18. 1928. Col. 3 computed by converting figures in col. 2 into pounds and dividing by corresponding figure in col. 1. 11 Cowan, Con G. Taking the guesswork out of walnut marketing. Diamond Walnut News, 11 (2): 10. Apr., 1929. Estimate is made that in 1928, 35.8 per cent of total trees were non-bearing, 24.3 per cent in partial bearing, and only 39.9 per cent in full bearing. 16 University of California — Experiment Station & p o O h P 1 W n 0 CM CM CO t~- >0 CO 00 ffl «5 i-l S O "5 H H io to » oo n <-h CO 00 CO CO <-l ffl O CO ^NlOOlO^COH NOOHNMCOHCO o ■** t^ oo M -< ffl 00 00 CM CM T(i N to cq US U) •* o us o CO OO CO «5 wow* O t^ *< ^H CM t^ CO T-< rH OS CM CO IO OO O *fi> CO i-i i— i io «3 iC 00 o> *-i a> •«*i * ,-i >0 CM ■^ O O t^ O co cm t~ CO 00 O «5 * CO CO ffl H N O0 ffl CM "5 00 O r^ -* CO O ffl t-^ CO ■* OO O0 rt H CO * N if) N h N CO CM CO *l -h CM i-H ffl CM d 5 a3 > o-g ' co 3 £ "3 PQ O •J J j§ a a CO ,£ o o3 ,9 9 »2 i? 13 «3 "3 «3 "3 cj r 3 4».H o £ II Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 17 Assuming then, that yields will not change greatly in the immediate future, the forecasted bearing acreage becomes our best guide to future production. The forecasted bearing acreage for 1930 is 7.0 per cent above that of 1929 ; the forecasted acreage for 1931 is 8.1 per cent above that for 1930; and that for 1932 is 5.9 per cent above the figure for 1931. The yearly increase in the trend of pro- duction, it will be recalled, has been about 6.5 per cent. Certain elements of uncertainty must, however, be considered with any look ahead. At least five factors tend to offset the expected increases in production from new plantings. They are: (1) Some of the newer plantings are on inferior land which will produce dis- appointingly low yields. (2) Valencia oranges are in some instances replacing some of the less profitable walnut groves. (3) In Los Angeles and Orange counties some walnut acreage is being subdivided for residential purposes. (4) In some cases increased difficulty of con- trolling pests may cause growers to pull up walnut orchards, par- ticularly where alternative crops pay well. The codling moth in particular is threatening in some areas. (5) Drainage and alkali difficulties are developing in some areas and may lead to the pulling up of some acreage. It is not possible at this time to tell how important these factors are to become. Some may fade into insignificance as control measures are discovered, whereas others may become increasingly important. MARKET CLASSIFICATION OF CALIFORNIA WALNUTS The California Walnut Growers Association, which handles about 85 per cent of the California walnut crop, has found it advantageous to standardize its grades so that walnuts packed by various local associations can be sold with full assurance that they will come up to specifications set forth by the standardization committee of the central association. Grading standards were in process of development even before the formation of the present association in 1912, when a rather loose association known as the Walnut Growers Association of Southern California was in existence. Particular attention has been given to the subject of grade standardization during the past decade. The California market classification of walnuts is based on a com- bination of quality, size, and variety characteristics, as indicated in the following: 18 University of California — Experiment Station Market Classification of Walnuts Brand Size Variety Market classification Large [Seedlings JBuds [Fancies Diamond No. 1 Soft Shell Diamond Large Buds Diamond Large Fancies Diamond Medium (Seedlings JBuds [Fancies Diamond No. 1 Soft Shell Diamond Medium Buds Diamond Medium Fancies Small fSeedlings] \ Buds [ [Fancies j Emerald Babies 12 Large fSeedlings ^Buds [Fancies Emerald No. 1 Soft Shell Emerald Large Buds Emerald Large Fancies Emerald Medium (Seedlings ^Buds [Fancies Emerald No. 1 Soft Shell Emerald Medium Buds Emerald Medium Fancies k Small [Seedlings] | Buds } [Fancies J Emerald Babies Large fSeedlings JBuds [Fancies California No. 1 Soft Shell California Large Buds California Fancies California Medium fSeedlings •JBuds [Fancies California No. 1 Soft Shell California Medium Buds California Fancies Small fSeedlings] \ Buds f California Babies [Fancies The central association maintains an inspection system under which a sample from every shipping lot is subjected to a cracking test before the lot leaves the state in order that shipments comply with specifi- cations. The samples and cracking tests are retained at the central office, but in case of dispute a final sample is also taken at destination. Briefly the specifications for the market classification may be set forth as follows : 1. Quality classification — brands. Diamond — 90 per cent sound, edible kernels; 60 per cent light, rest may be amber. Emerald — 86 per cent sound, edible kernels; 40 per cent light, rest may be amber. California — 80 per cent sound, edible kernels. 12 Small nuts of Diamond quality are now sold under the Emerald brand. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 19 2. Size classifications. Large \ (Based on specific size of openings in grading screens Medium I through which nuts do or do not pass. Eange in size of Small \ openings is from 6% 4 inches in diameter to "%4 inches.) 3. Variety classifications. Seedlings — mainly soft shells. Buds — budded or grafted varieties, mainly Placentia. Fancies — Mayette, Franquette, Concord, Payne, Eureka. California Walnut Growers Association Shipments of Merchantable Walnuts by Market Classifications, 1928 Per c ey? + S /O /S 20 J Q Ones 224 L orge Budded- — /Q.6 v Fancies A2.*J Farrc/es Medium £3 added- -3 'I Ones. JO.8 £orge Budded.... 8.5 $\ BoJb/e s *2 S.9\ fancies S'4\ Medium Suds- --./*& Co/iforrt/o /Q.& Fig. 5. — Almost two-thirds of the merchantable walnuts are shipped under the Diamond Brand. Table 6 gives the percentage of nuts shipped under various market classifications by the California Walnut Growers Association from 1914 to 1928. It also shows the change in classification which was adopted with the opening of the 1926 season. It will be noticed that in recent years the relative proportion of the three quality classifi- cations are approximately 60 per cent Diamond, 30 per cent Emerald, and 10 per cent California. These proportions, of course, vary some- what from year to year. Figure 5 pictures the relative importance of the several market classifications of the 1928 crop of nuts. Figure 6 shows the data of table 6 plotted under the market classifications of 1914 to 1925 with the highest-priced nuts at the bottom and the lowest-priced at the top. Figure 7 pictures the same data in per- centage of the total shipments each year. It will be noted that No. 1 Soft Shells which have most frequently been used as typical of the price level of any given year are decreasing in relative importance, although their production has continued roughly about constant. The change in relative importance has arisen from the rapid increase in production of Budded and Fancy varieties. 20 University of California — Experiment Station o ^ h «1 * 1— 1 or) o CI o OJ 09 i— i DO 4- tH "3 o H OOOOOOOOOO©© oooooooooooo OOOU»«C-C5-Hi— IC5 0«OCOCO'*t >> O a 03 Ot^UOOOOOCOlOOCO-TfOO 00 HHHH^Tf*e«N 0) 13 13 pq 13 03 13 C 03 co ©OOOOOOOOOOOOOO ooo> c c 03 M1001N'OeilN*MH»T|( c©«00005»rtO!NWNOCIlO* MOOOOONe(DlO»tOl(5^ ^WChOOOlOHNM^W HHHHHrtNNNNINN 03 §§§ o H 03 fl o oo >o te CO 00 o 'S , " H u 13 w 03 - i-( U5 £ « W fe 1" O'R £« « N (N 03 o3 Q fe - s^ 8.2-S DO i-l (N 073^3 O N i-l g ep 3 III IC OS i-H 03 0) ^ qSm 2 13 2 ol^ a> us ifs (M ■* 00 £►3,2 1—1 h n a 03^3 r>. o> CO N (D 0O o3j 3 5 « 2 « o3^-a f -co ezz W eg 13 S3 c 2 00 —l <* O ^h *JZS 'XG *27 VZ8 '29 Fig. 6. — The higher-priced nuts are pictured at the bottom of the chart, the lower-priced at the top. Increases in production have been mainly in the Fancy varieties and Budded nuts. The chart is made up by applying California Walnut Growers Association shipping percentages to estimated merchantable crop figures. Data for 1926 to 1928 converted to classification used prior to that time. See table 6 for new classification. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 23 The quantity of Cornes produced is usually about one-third more than that of Marbots. The Cornes district is the most important walnut-producing district of France. Batchelor points out that French walnut production decreased somewhat from 1904 to 1921, but since then has been increasing. During the next ten to fifteen years the production of Marbots may be expected to continue about as at present, while Grenoble production may increase somewhat. Production in the Corne district may be expected to increase considerably. Market Classification of California Walnuts in Percentage of Total Merchantable Production (Old Classification Basis), 1914-1928 /OOP so 25 /p/4. >/5 >/6 "7 */J} >/9 >20 '2/ *22 '23 '2*- '25 '26 '27 '28 >29 Fig. 7. — Although No. 1 Soft Shells have remained about constant in quantity, they have decreased in relative importance because of increases in the produc- tion of Fancy varieties and Budded nuts. Data for 1926 to 1928 converted to classification used prior to that time. See table 6 for new classification. Most estimates of the usual total production of walnuts in France are between 44,000 and 55,000 tons. The most reliable information gives the production of walnuts available for export since 1922 as in table 7. Moreover, this series comes through the same sources for each year, hence the figures may be considered fairly comparable. The same authority estimates that 45,100 tons might be considered a normal crop for 1928. The following statements show some of the discrepancies in the various statements and are typical of information on foreign crops: 24 University of California — Experiment Station Various Estimates of Normal Production in France (Thousands of tons) 25 to 30 United States Department of Commerce (U.S. Com. Eept. 25th yr. 2(1.5) :73. Apr. 10, 1922.) 44 (for 1918 to 1922) United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics (Foreign Crops and Markets 11(6) :195. Aug. 10, 1925.) 55 (normal crop) United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics (Foreign Crops and Markets 9(21) :519. Nov. 19, 1924.) 49.5 (yield in good years) United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics (Foreign news on nuts W12:l-2. (mimeo.) Dec. 13, 1926.) 44 ("usual estimate") California Fruit News (Calif. Frt. News 76(2050): 17. Oct. 22, 1927.) 47 (average for past 12 years)... L. D. Bachelor (Walnut culture in France. Dia- mond Walnut News 8(2) :3. 1926.) 45.1 (estimated for 1928) California Walnut Growers Association representa- tive in Europe. TABLE 7 Estimated Production of Walnuts Available for Export in France, 1922-1928 Other table Shelling Year Grenobles Marbots Cornes varieties varieties Total tons tons tons tons tons tons 1922 4,400 4,620 2,475 1923 1,815 2,310 3,740 5,500 27,500 40,865 1924 2,475 3,300 3,465 5,500 27,500 42,240 1925 3,960 4,235 6,435 7,700 38,500 60,830 1926 2,200 770 1,980 19,250 9,625 33,825 1927 3,300 4,950 4,950 8,800 44,000 66,000 1928 Source of data: Figures supplied to the California Walnut Growers Association by its European representative. Italy. — Walnut production of Italy is greatest in the southern part of the peninsula. The most important districts are around Naples, Salerno, and Sorrento, in the west central part of the Campania Province. Most of the southern Italy crop is Sorrentos, 17 a soft- shelled variety that is easily cracked with the fingers, which is largely confined to the plains of southern Italy. The mountain variety has a thick shell and is grown on the mountain sides at altitudes of from 800 to 2,500 feet. The mountain variety, only, is grown in northern Italy. The Turin district, at the western end of the Poe Valley, is the only district of commercial walnut production in northern Italy. 17 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W3:l-2. (mimeo.) Aug. 21, 1925. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 25 Estimates of the total production for Italy also vary widely. The average for the three years 1924-1926, according to the estimates of the Minister of National Economy of Italy, is about 31,500 tons a year. His estimates are considered high by the trade. 18 The Italian crop may be expected to increase considerably during the next few years. Many of the recent plantings are in orchards and may be expected to yield better than the scattered trees. Batchelor estimates that commercial walnut production in Italy is likely to increase by 100 per cent during the next decade. 19 Most of the more recent plantings are in orchards rather than scattered plantings. Table 8 gives an estimate of walnut production available for export in Italy by commercial varieties since 1922. The normal for the crop of 1928 was placed at 9,625 tons by the Association representative. TABLE 8 Estimated Production of Walnuts Available for Export in Italy by Commercial Varieties, 1922-1928 Year No. 1 Naples Sorrentos Current Naples Wild Naples Total 1922 tons 6,435 5,500 4,950 7,425 7,260 8,800 tons 1,375 1,100 825 1,375 1,650 1,650 tons tons 7,810 1923 6,600 1924 1925 1926 1927 825 1,045 2,090 1,925 6,600 9,845 11,000 12,375 Source of data: Figures supplied to California Walnut Growers Association by its European repre- sentative. TABLE 9 Estimated Production of Walnuts Available for Export in Koumania by Districts, 1923-1928 Year Bessarabia Moldavia Transylvania Total tons tons tons tons 1923 1,650 2,200 1,430 52,800 1924 5,750 7,700 2,200 15,650 1925 2,475 5,500 1,650 9,625 1926 6,600 13,750 2,750 23,100 1927 3,300 8,250 1,650 13,200 Source of data: Figures supplied to California Walnut Growers Association by its European repre- sentative. "U.S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign Crops and Markets, 14(17) :533. Apr. 25, 1927. 19 Batchelor, L. D. Walnut culture in Italy. Diamond Walnut News, 9(1) :7. 1927. 26 University of California — Experiment Station Roumania. — Walnut trees in Roumania are rarely planted in orchard form. Trees are numerous in the hilly sections, where almost every peasant has a few trees in his yard or pasture. The production of walnuts is confined largely to the section east of the Carpathian Mountains and north of the mouth of the Danube, i.e., the provinces of Bessarabia (formerly part of Russia), Bukowina, and Moldavia. Transylvania (formerly part of Hungary), in the central mountainous part of Roumania, is also of some importance. 20 Bessarabia is the most important section and its production has been increasing rapidly since the war. The number of walnut trees in this province is estimated to have increased from 403,156 in 1919 to 765,085 in 1922. 21 The percentage of the total crop produced in the various provinces is given as follows: Bessarabia and Bukowina 46 per cent Moldavia 37 per cent Transylvania 17 per cent The best series of data for the total production are those given in table 9. However, other estimates vary widely from those in table 9 and from each other. The normal crop for 1928 was estimated by the same authority to be 9,900 tons " available for export." China. — The main production of commercial walnuts in China is in the northern provinces of Chihli, Shansi, and Shantung, the central province of Honan, and to some extent in the western province of Szechwan. 22 The best variety of walnut produced in China — the paper shell — is grown in the Chihli Province along the coast northeast of Tientsin, in the Tang Shan Valley about fifty miles northeast of Peking, and in an extensive area in the Shansi Province to the south- west of the city af Fen Chow. 23 A few sections in these districts are the only places in China where walnut orchards are given special care and cultivation. In most places throughout China the walnut crop is of only secondary importance to the farmer. The most important variety grown is the medium-shelled. The double-shelled, which is the lowest grade, comes next, while the paper-shell is of least importance. In the hilly section west of Klagan and around Tatungfu between the outer and inner great Wall in Shansi, around Tsing Chow-fu and 20 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W22:l. (mimeo.) Sept. 2, 1927. 2i U.S. Dept. Commerce Eeport, 26th yr., 4(52) :828. Dec. 24, 1923. 22 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W26:l. (mimeo.) Oct. 5, 1927. 2 3 Thorpe, Carlyle. A journey to the walnut sections of Europe and Asia. pp. 45, 53. Privately printed, Young and McCallister, Inc., Los Angeles. 1923. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 27 Luhengsien in the Shantung Province, and around Laohokow in the Hupeh Province, other districts are found. 24 Some of these districts are more in the nature of shipping centers for surrounding territory, than of definitely concentrated producing areas. The Kansu Province (northwest China) has a large walnut pro- duction but it is so far in the interior that the crop cannot be trans- ported to the shipping centers by present means of transportation. The likin taxes (a local tax collected on commodities moving from one province or even from one district to another) is an additional obstruction to the movement of walnuts. These same difficulties are encountered to a greater or less degree in many parts of China. An American exporting firm in Tientsin 25 has estimated the pro- duction of walnuts for the important commercial provinces as follows : Chihli 2,000 tons Shansi 3,000 tons Honan 3,200 tons Shantung 500 tons In some cases these figures are merely guesses based on trade infor- mation received from dealers. The total production of walnuts in China can be estimated only in a very rough way, because production figures are non-existent and even the most general knowledge of many interior parts is lacking. Thorpe has estimated "the quantity of walnuts produced in sections of China available for international trade" as between 15,000 and 17,500 tons. 26 The Maritime Customs records show that for the years 1921 to 1925 the average shipments of walnuts in terms of whole nuts from ports of China to other ports in China and to foreign countries averaged about 11,500 tons, 27 65 per cent of which enters the shelled trade. About 70 per cent of the commercial crop is exported to foreign countries. The actual crop is undoubtedly very much larger. The quantity entering the trade depends, to a considerable extent, upon the efforts of the dealers in getting the nuts out of the interior. Our lack of knowledge regarding the total crop of China leaves us in the dark as to its future commercial possibilities. It is fairly 24 Calif ornia Fr. News, 67(1804) :4. Feb. 24, 1923. 25 U. S. Dept. of Commerce Eeport, 25th yr., 2(19) :343-344. May 8, 1922. 26 Thorpe, Carlyle. A journey to the walnut sections of Europe and Asia, pp. 45, 53. Privately printed, Young and McCallister, Inc., Los Angeles. 1923. 27 On the assumption that 30 pounds of shelled equal 100 pounds of unshelled walnuts. This is the estimate of the Tientsin exporters. (U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W26:4. (mimeo.) Oct. 5, 1927.) 28 University of California — Experiment Station certain that plantings have not greatly increased in recent years. Thorpe estimated the average age of walnut trees in Shansi at 75 years and said most trees in Tang Shan Valley were from 100 to 200 years old. The Chinese Government (since becoming a republic) has dis- continued the practice of subsidizing the planting of trees and most Chinese farmers are too poor to make investments for future genera- tions. Walnut plantings are not taking place, in spite of the fact that the walnut crop is one of the most profitable crops. Yet without greatly increasing plantings, China's exports of walnuts rose from insignificance to one of great importance in a few years. A part of the walnut-producing area was opened up to world commerce, but that it is so far only a part is generally admitted. 28 If railroad transportation should take the place of coolie porters, the likin taxes be discontinued, cultural methods improved, political order established, and the industry given general encouragement, largely increased quantities might enter the market. Czechoslovakia. — Information concerning production of walnuts in Czechoslovakia is very meager. Such estimates as there are seem too high. Czechoslovakia is not an important exporting country. In fact, it is reported as one of the main markets for the Roumanian crop. 29 Batchelor reports that the estimate of the Czechoslovakia crop are based on the weight of uncured nuts as soon as they are husked. The cured nuts weigh about one-third less. Most of the crop is sold uncured to the merchants of the neighboring villages. 30 An estimate of 10,000 tons is probably not far from normal. Spain. — The total production of walnuts in Spain has been placed at 41,000 tons, 31 but this seems to be much too high. Thorpe estimated Spam's production at from 5,000 to 6,000 tons. Spain's total exports of walnuts average about 1,200 tons, 32 most of which are shelled nuts. Assuming they were all shelled nuts, this would amount to only 2,850 tons of unshelled nuts. Since the walnut industry is almost entirely in the hands of small producers home consumption may be rather large. 28 California Fr. News, 67(1804) :4. Feb. 24, 1923. U.S. Dept. of Commerce Report, 25th yr., 2(19) :343-344. May 8, 1922. 29 TJ. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, Wl:l. (mimeo.) Feb. 26, 1925. Ibid., W22:l-3. Sept. 2, 1927. so Batchelor, L. D. Walnut culture in Czechoslovakia. Diamond Walnut News, 9(4) :7. 1927. 3i U.S. Dept. Commerce Report, 23rd yr., 1(55):1319. Mar. 6, 1920. 32 Computed from export figures of years 1913, 1916, 1917, 1920, 1921, as given in U.S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign Crops and Markets, 6(4): 51. Jan. 24, 1923; and in U.S. Dept. Commerce Report, 23rd yr., 1(55):1319. Mar. 6, 1920; and data for 1914 and 1915 from Spain's official statistics, Commercio Exterior. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 29 Asiatic Turkey. — Prior to the war, Asiatic Turkey had about 300,000 walnut trees and produced on the average about 16,500 tons of walnuts, but because of the World War and the unsettled conditions following it, many of the trees have been destroyed and many others completely neglected. 33 Production in this region will probably increase considerably over recent years if political and economic conditions become stabilized, but it cannot reach its pre-war production for several years. Jugoslavia. 34 — The United States Department of Commerce reports the walnut crop of Jugoslavia for 1928 at 2,200 tons. 35 We are placing the normal walnut production in this country at 2,000 tons in our estimate of world production. Relatively small quantities are exported. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN WALNUTS Statistics on international trade in walnuts are far from complete and those available are not entirely comparable. Indications are, however, that about half the world's crop of walnuts enters into inter- national trade and that nearly a third of that trade is with the United States. Official export figures from France, Italy, and China indicating quantities shipped to the principal importing countries are given in tables 17, 18, and 19 (see " Appendix," pp. 51-53). The average total exports for the last five years available are : France, 25,364 tons ; Italy, 8,248 tons; and China, 6,559 tons. These figures are not comparable because they are simple sums of unshelled and shelled walnuts. China is the only country for which separate data for shelled and unshelled walnut exports are available. The figures for China may readily be converted to terms of whole nuts. The exports of shelled walnuts from Italy are of little importance. With France, however, the quantity of shelled nuts exported is very large. The figure roughly representative of the yearly walnut exports from France in terms of whole nuts is about 40,000 tons. Compared with this the foreign 33 U.S. Dept. of Commerce Keport, 25th yr., 1(71) :378-379. Feb. 13, 1922. Annual Report, 1925 of the California Walnut Growers Association places the production of walnuts in Turkey at 21 million pounds. 34 Jugoslavia includes what was formerly "(1) the independent kingdom of Serbia; (2) the independent kingdom of Montenegro; (3) Bosnia and Herzegovina, annexed by Austria in 1908; (4) Dalmatia, with parts of Styria, Carniola, and Carinthia, belonging to Austria; (5) Croatia, an autonomous province of Hungary; (6) Voivodina (parts of Baranja, Batcka and Banot), belonging to Hungary."' Near East Yearbook, 1927:1. 35 Foodstuffs 'round the world. Conf . Foreign Trade News, p. 5, Oct. 5, 1928. 30 University of California — Experiment Station walnut trade of Roumania is around 15,000, 36 of Italy 8,750 tons, 37 of China 8,000 tons, and of Spain 2,850 tons. 38 Changes in Foreign Trade since Pre-War Years. — The fact that walnut exports from most foreign countries are not separately classified into shelled and unshelled detracts greatly from the value of the data. Nevertheless, the data indicate in a rough way the extent to which the walnut export trade has increased or shifted since pre- war years. The 1921-1925 average exports from France of about 25,500 tons is an increase of 15.5 per cent over the 1910-1914 average of 22,000 tons (see table 19, p. 53). The exports to the United States almost doubled between these periods. Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Canada are the only other countries that show a corresponding increase. These, however, take but a small part of the exports from France. The significant shift during the past fifteen years in French export trade has thus been increased shipments to United States. This increase is about equal to the increase in total exports from France, so that exports to all other countries, though showing no decrease in the absolute quantity, have decreased relative to the total exports. Great Britain received slightly more nuts though a slightly lower percentage. Germany, on the other hand, received fewer both absolutely and relatively. The average exports of walnuts from Italy for 1910-1914 amounted to nearly 5,000 tons; for 1922-1926 they amounted to 8,250 tons— an increase of 65 per cent between the two periods. During this same period exports to the United States almost doubled. They increased from 2,915 to 5,297 tons. Increased exports to the United States absorbed almost three-fourths (72 per cent) of the increase in total exports from Italy. During the first period the United States received 59.3 per cent of the total exports from Italy ; during the latter period it received 64.2 per cent (see table 18, p. 52). 36 Koumania walnut exports: 1922 6,941 tons 1925 14,093 tons 1923 6,927 tons 1926 18,820 tons 1924 19,699 tons 1927 7,115 tons (California Frt. News, 77(2074) :9. Apr. 7, 1928.) There are no separate statistics available for shelled and unshelled walnuts. Eight or ten cracking plants are maintained at various cities and considerable quantities of shelled nuts are exported. U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W22:3. (mimeo.) Sept. 2, 1927. 37 Assuming 5 per cent are exported as shelled walnuts. L. D. Batchelor (Diamond Walnut News, 9(1) :7. 1927.) gives 8,500 tons. 38 See discussion of walnut production in Spain, p. 28. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 31 Unshelled and shelled exports from China are given separately by country of destination in table 17 (p. 53). Unshelled walnut exports from China for 1912-1916 averaged about 3,250 tons. For the period 1921-1925 the average was 3,750 tons, an increase of 15.4 per cent over the earlier period. For the same period the average exports of shelled walnuts increased from 250 to 1,800 tons, an increase of 620 per cent. Expressed in terms of whole walnuts, total exports from China increased from 3,900 to 7,750 tons, an increase of 95.9 per cent. As in the case with Italy and France, most of the increase in walnuts exported from China has gone to the United States. Exports by country from the other walnut-producing regions are not available. Analysis of the United States walnut imports by countries, however, indicated that there has been no increase in exports to the United States from other foreign countries comparable to the increases from France, Italy, and China. Tables 17 and 18 show that the United States is by far the largest importer of walnuts from China and Italy. England leads the United States as an importer of French walnuts on the basis of the French export statistics. However, it should be noted that these statistics do not separate shelled from unshelled, so that comparison in terms of whole walnuts is impossible. A very large part of the United States imports are shelled, and it is quite possible that on the unshelled basis the United States imports a larger proportion of the French crop than Great Britain. The United States really gets a larger portion of the crop from these countries than these tables indicate, for some of the walnuts exported to other countries eventually reach the United States. For example, the United States imports walnuts from England and Japan. These countries are themselves importers, rather than commercial producers of walnuts. Moreover, in some cases larger quantities of walnuts are imported from the producing countries, according to United States import figures, than the export statistics of the respective countries indicate. The following figures are averages for five years, 1921-1925, and include both shelled and unshelled walnuts. France Italy China Quantity imported to United States (U. S. import statistics).. Quantity exported to United States (According to statistics of foreign country) tons 10,809 8,120 tons 5,550 5,297 tons 3,273 3,199 Difference 2,689 24.9 253 4 6 74 Difference expressed in percentage of United States import quantities 2 3 32 University of California — Experiment Station The principal markets for Roumanians walnut crop are the neigh- boring countries. The largest and steadiest demand comes from Poland and Hungary, although Austria and Czechoslovakia also import quantities. 39 During the past few years the United States has imported, on the average, about 750 tons of unshelled walnuts from Roumania. The demand for walnuts by Germany appears to be back to about its pre-war status, as indicated by French exports to. Germany (see table 19, p. 53). Approximate World Production, Consumption, and Export of Walnuts by Countries Estimated Norma/ V\/a/nat /°ro dc/ction by Coart tries O /O 20 30 40 so 7~fi © Cf &■ o rt c* a 60 70 SO 90 /OO of no / arts /ZO /SO j4o /so /60 /7o /so /go z i i i 1 i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 United States 1 Franc e iRoumaniol Ita '^■"•I^IHWSM Estimated C ons um/ot ion of W o/n a fs by Countries I United State* [^^^@^^^j All others ] Wo/nuts fntering Foreign Trade Fr°nc« |«°l~|to!)|%|f|Alloth ^ J L Fig. 8. — The United States is by far the most important buyer of walnuts. Summary on International Trade. — Figures thus far presented on foreign production and on international trade are in a considerable measure fragmentary. It seems desirable, however, to piece together, even though it be roughly, the available parts of the picture in an attempt to get a glimpse of the whole. This is done in table 10 and figure 8. The mere fact that decimal figures have been used should not be taken as an evidence of accuracy. In a few cases the figures are admittedly estimates on the part of the authors, based on general statements gleaned from reading on the subject or on conflicting estimates of others. 39 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W22:2. (mimeo.) Sept. 2, 1927. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 33 TABLE 10 Estimated Production, Consumption, and Exports of Walnuts from Various Countries in Terms of Whole Walnuts* Estimated normal pro- duction of walnuts Estimated consumption of walnuts Walnuts entering foreign commerce 1 2 3 1000 tons 351 50 3 20 6 17.58 20i° ion 7.512 12.513 6i5 416 31 7 2 18 219 321 WOO tons 652 10 4 5 4 8.7* 12* 11" 4.7* 14 14 1.316 14 14 219 1120 1020 51.821 1000 tons 40 5 15 7 Italy 8.89 8 9 2.8i 2 Turkey .... 14 14 Chile 2 7 M 14 Germany 6.021 Total 192.5 192 5 - 83.3 * The figures for some countries doubtless are in error and others are merely the roughest sort of estimates. The estimates of the production of these countries as made by various agencies in many cases show wide discrepancies. They are here given only as a very rough picture of the world situation. 1 Estimated normal for 1928. 2 See table 13, page 44. 3 Association estimated 45,109 tons "available for export." See page 23. Total is probably larger. 4 Obtained by subtracting the walnut exports of these countries from their estimated production. 5 See page 29. 6 Association estimated 1928 normal at 9,900 tons "available for export." 7 Approximate normal based on inspection of exports, 1922-1927. See p. 30. 8 Association estimated 9,600 tons "available for export." Doubtless large amount consumed at home. See pp. 24-25. » See p. 30. 10 Thorpe estimated in 1922 a total production of from 15,000 to 17,500 tons "available for international trade." Thorpe, C. A journey to the walnut sections of Europe and Asia, p. 53, 1923. 11 See pp. 28. 12 See p. 28. 13 See p. 29. Improved conditions believed to warrant an increase in "normal." 14 Included in "other countries." 15 Foodstuffs "Round the World, Confec. Foreign Trade News, Dec. 10, 1926, p. 6. 16 Foodstuffs 'Round the World, Confec. Foreign Trade News, Jan. 28, 1927, p. 4; Apr. 22, 1927, p. 4. Figure for 1925 on exports. Authors' estimate of production. 1 7 Ibid., June 6, 1927, p. 4. 18 Foodstuffs 'Round the World, Confec. Foreign Trade News, Oct. 5, 1928, p. 5. " U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts N 10: 2. (mimeo.). July 29, 1926. 20 Authors' estimate based on import and export data of various countries. 21 Authors' allowance for countries on which adequate data are not available. This includes countries for which production data are given in column 1 and other countries not here listed. 34 University of California — Experiment Station TABLE 11 Import of Walnuts into United States, 1900-1927 Year 1902-03 to 1906-07. 1912-13 to 1916-17. 1922-23 to 1926-27. 1900-01 1901-02 1902-03 1903-04 1904-05 1905-06 1906-07 1907-08 1908-09 1909-10 1910-11 1911-12 1912-13 1913-14 1914-15 1915-16 1916-17 1917-18 1918-19 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27 1927-28 1903-07 to 1913-17.. 1913-17 to 1923-27.. Unshelled Shelled Shelled in terms of whole nuts Total in terms of whole nuts tons tons tons. tons 8,277 2,294 5,462 13,739 11,605 5,838 13,894 25,504 11,631 10,397 24,756 36,387 4,851 1,112 2,472 7,323 5,197 1,297 2,883 8,080 4,468 1,518 3,373 7,841 9,727 1,740 3,867 13,594 8,156 2,089 4,642 12,798 7,515 2,474 5,498 12,513 11,518 3,600 8,000 19,518 10,714 3,549 7,888 18,602 8,716 4,391 9,758 18,474 11,635 5,480 12,179 23,814 10,573 5,622 12,493 23,066 11,104 5,357 11,904 23,008 9,468 5,246 11,659 21,127 13,429 4,379 9,732 23,160 10,543 5,830 12,956 23,499 11,798 7,350 16,333 28,131 12,788 6,382 14,183 26,971 5,561 5,553 12,340 17,901 3,278 4,120 9,155 12,433 12,223 8,737 19,416 31,639 8,712 4,891 10,870 19,582 19,358 8,543 18,984 38,342 9,545 8,965 19,922 29,467 9,615 9,645 21,328 30,991 15,244 11,683 25,961 41,205 11,392 11,568 25,707 37,099 12,095 10,440 22,609 34,970 4,944 7,936 17,805 22,749 Per Cent Increase per cent 42.2 0.2 per cent 154.5 78.1 per cent per cent 85.6 42.7 Sources of data: Cols. 1 and 2. Import data for years 1900-1912 are imports entered for consumption as given in Commerce and Navigation of the United States for various years. For years 1913-1926 the data were compiled from Monthly Summaries of Foreign Commerce of the United States and are for general imports. The difference between imports entered for consumption and general imports is ex- plained by the following statement taken from Commerce and Navigation of the United States: "The statement of imports entered for consumption .... embraces imported articles entered for immediate consumption and imported articles withdrawn from warehouse for consumption. The statement of general imports and the statement of imports entered for consumption for any period will always differ to the extent that the value of entries for warehouse for the period differs from the value of withdrawals from warehouse for consumption." (Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States, 1: v. 1926.) Prior to July, 1912, the data for general imports of shelled and unshelled walnuts were not published separately. As the imports entered for consumption are given in yearly figures only, it was not possible to put imports for 1901-1912 on a crop-sales year basis. However, the difference between the imports by fiscal year and by crop-sales year is usually of minor importance, as the amount imported in July, August and September is relatively small. Data for 1927 from Weekly issues of California Fruit News, 76-77 (2034-2111): July, 1927-Dec, 1928. (Continued on page 35) Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 35 IMPORTS OF WALNUTS INTO THE UNITED STATES In this bulletin the import and consumption data have been given, wherever possible, by crop-sales years, running from October to Sep- tember, inclusively, instead of by calendar or fiscal years. Where this was not possible the fiscal years have been used. The data on the latter basis do not vary greatly from the crop-sales year data because imports during July, August, and September are not great. The crop-sales years are designated by compound numerals, i.e., 1925-26, 1926-27, etc., the first numeral representing the three months of the year in which the crop matures. Thus the California crop harvested in the fall of 1926 is the crop included in the 1926-27 crop-sales year. Stated in terms of merchantable whole walnuts, the imports of walnuts for the years 1913-14 to 1916-17 provided 67.2 per cent of the United States consumption as compared with 53.6 per cent for the years 1925-26 to 1927-28. For the last complete crop-sales year, 1927-28, the percentage fell abruptly to 33.2 per cent, and for the first four months of the 1928-29 crop-sales year for which import figures are available at this date the imports of shelled are but 76.9 per cent of the previous year's imports to the same date, while unshelled are 154 per cent of the previous comparable figure. Unshelled Walnut Imports. — The quantity of unshelled walnuts imported fluctuates greatly from year to year. In the closing months of 1918 there was a scarcity of ships to transport walnuts from Europe, hence imports of walnuts fell to a low point during the crop year 1918. From 1919 to 1922 walnut imports were very erratic. It might be expected that fluctuations in the quantity of unshelled walnuts imported would be caused by variations in California pro- duction, and the high and low prices that would accompany small and large California crops respectively. Such a tendency has not been noticeable until the last four years. In these years imports of whole nuts have been large when our crops were relatively short and vice versa. This relationship may be expected to continue. It may also be expected that if California production increases and prices work to lower levels foreign demand will absorb increasing percentages of the foreign crop, particularly if European purchasing power were Col. 3 was obtained by converting data of col. 2 into terms of whole walnuts by assuming that 100 pounds of merchantable walnuts contain 45 pounds of nut kernels. The actual figure will, of course, vary widely from variety to variety, from country to country, and for walnuts of varying qualities. Conversion factors occasionally used vary from 0.30 used by exporters in China (U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. of Agr. Econ. For. News on Nuts, W 26: (mimeo.) 4 Oct. 5, 1927 to the figure 0.45 used by the present authors and by L. D. Batchelor, of the California Citrus Experiment Station (California Exp. Sta. Bul. 379). Anyone desiring to use a different base in any specified instance can reconvert to unshelled by multi- plying by 0.45 and then dividing by the chosen factor— say 0.42. 36 University of California — Experiment Station to improve. Other factors, such as the world production and demand, may greatly modify the expected effect of the size of the California crop. During the first ten years of the century the imports of unshelled walnuts increased considerably (table 11). Since then marked fluctua- tions, with no apparent trend, have been characteristic of imports. Relative to California production and United States population, the importation of unshelled walnuts has decreased during this period. Shelled Walnut Imports. — With the exception of a few years during the latter part of, and following, the war, the shelled walnut imports of the United States have shown in general a rather steady increase. The average shelled walnut imports for the five-year periods 1910-1914 and 1923-1927 are 5,217 tons and 10,398 tons, respectively, showing an increase of 99.3 per cent between the two periods. A slight decline occurred during 1912, 1913, and 1914, and a more severe decline has taken place during 1926, 1927, and 1928 (see fig. 9). Seasonal Distribution of Imports. — The first important foreign shipments of unshelled walnuts from the new crop come to the United States from southern Italy. Shipments of the Sorrento walnuts from Naples begin during the last two weeks of September, the bulk being exported during October. 40 Shipments from France start during the latter part of October, but November is the great exporting month. 41 The bulk of the unshelled walnuts from China are exported during October. 42 Exportation from Roumania begins about the middle of October. As transportation across the ocean takes considerable time, the months of the largest imports into the United States do not corre- spond exactly with the months of greatest exportation from the supplying countries. Figure 10 shows recent United States imports of unshelled walnuts by months for France, Italy, and China. Large quantities of unshelled walnuts are regularly imported during the first three months of the crop-sales year (last three months of the calendar year). Figure 11 shows the average imports by months for the five-year period, October, 1922, to September, 1927. The figure illustrates in a general way the distribution of unshelled walnut imports back to 1913, which is as far back as data are available. During these five crop-sales years 52 per cent of the total unshelled 40 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W10:l. (mimeo.) Sept. 21, 1926. 41 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W15:l. (mimeo.) May 10, 1927. 42 U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts, W26:3. (mimeo.) Oct. 5, 1927. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 37 imports have arrived during November and 79 per cent have arrived during the three-month period of October, November, and December. France, Italy, and China furnish about four-fifths of the unshelled walnut imports. Imports of Unshelled and Shelled Walnuts, Years Beginning in July from 1900 to 1911, and in october, from 1912 to 1927 Imports of Unshelled Walnuts into the United States 40\ \ZO «5 56 o ZS ZO C /e o X * tii f m i 1 1 ii in i INI III I /a AS ^ A* iz ° o z *zo Imports of Shelleo Walnuts into the United 5tates o * zo 5 * /6 /Z t itt r BlHl-I iiU I II n n i ii ill 1 1 in I III I II II Mill I II li o /o *» /900 Fig. 9. — Imports of unshelled walnuts have fluctuated more widely from year to year than have imports of shelled walnuts. No continuous trend is apparent in either case. The seasonal distribution of shelled walnut imports is very dif- ferent from that of unshelled walnuts. Figure 12, showing the seasonal distribution of shelled walnut imports from France and China, which furnish about four-fifths of the shelled walnut imports, indicates that no one month is outstanding in every year. The peak of shelled imports usually occurs in March, but it may occur in any of the first four months of the calendar year (see table 21) . Figure 11 38 University of California — Experiment Station shows that imports of shelled walnuts are about equal for February, March, and April. During the five-year period, October, 1922, to September, 1927, 17 per cent of the shelled imports arrived in Febru- ary, 17 per cent in March, 15 per cent in April. Thus about half of the total shelled imports came in these three months, while about three-fourths (72 per cent) arrived during the first five months of the calendar year. Monthly Imports of Unshelled Walnuts into the United States from France, China, and Italy for Four Years %s r ron ce ta\y i4\ 'l\ 1 *al I * J 1 * J M • I? .vChi no IX «jL J \/ A 1 1 n^ *£ I X lid 6 -5 < < i_ I92J4-25 1925-26 i926-2T 1927-28 Fig. 10. — Unshelled walnut imports arrive in greatest volume in October, November, and December. TABLE 12 Walnut Imports by Months Averages for five-year period, October, 1922, to September, 1927 Month Unshelled Shelled Shelled in terms of whole nuts Total in terms of whole nuts 1 2 3 4 tons 1,251 6,008 1,936 494 195 434 231 345 246 285 113 105 tons 475 463 795 1,334 1,751 1,761 1,514 1,097 680 235 79 217 tons 1,056 1,028 1,766 2,965 3,891 3,912 3,364 2,437 1,511 521 175 481 tons 2,306 November 7,035 3,701 3,459 February 4,086 March 4,346 April 3,595 2,781 1,757 July 806 288 586 11,643 10,401 23,107 34,746 Sources of data: Col. 1 and 2 computed from data given in Monthly Summaries of Foreign Commerce of the United States. Col. 3 obtained by converting data of col. 2 into whole nuts on the assumption that 100 pounds of whole nuts produce 45 pounds of shelled nuts. See footnote to table 11. Col. 4 is the sum of the data of col. 1 and col. 3. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 39 Walnut Imports by Months, October, 1922, to September, 1927 3, H y6 to H UnsM/eJ ■ She/he/ □ She//ec/ /rt fenm? of whole rrtrfs Oct Nov. DecJ'atr.Feo. Mar. Apt- May June Jv/y Ac/$. Sept Fig. 11.— The heaviest imports of unshelled walnuts come in November, whereas shelled walnuts are imported in greatest volume during the first four months of the calendar year. 40 University of California — Experiment Station UNITED STATES WALNUT IMPORTS BY COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN Unshelled Walnuts. — Italy, France, and China furnish the United States with most of the unshelled walnuts which it imports. During the five calendar years 1923-1927, these countries have supplied 87.1 per cent of the total quantity imported, while during the fiscal years from 1913 to 1917 they furnished 86.3 per cent. 43 Though the pro- portion of the imports furnished by these countries as a group has remained nearly the same, the percentage imported from each has undergone consideraly change. Formerly France furnished the largest part, but during the past decade France and Italy have exchanged places in importance. The proportion supplied by France decreased from 42.5 per cent in the early period to 25.1 per cent in the latter period, while that supplied by Italy increased from 27.6 per cent to 44.3 per cent. Imports of Shelled Walnuts prom France and China by Months, October, 1924, to September., 1928 »i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2.0 S* o Q. A /\ /-Pre nee / China-~\ a \ / 1 1 LJJ i i iWy\ _.1_L2 I.I 10 u I C o «i 0.5 o s. I- 4 * i 6 a. < ~3 < "3 a. < -3 I92M-25 1925-26 1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 Fig. 12. — Shelled walnuts are imported in greatest volume after the first of the year. France and China are the heaviest exporters to the United States. The imports from Japan for the most part are walnuts shipped there from China. Those from England are re-exports from other European countries. Roumania sometimes exports some walnuts to the United States, but usually the Roumanian crop is absorbed by the European trade, through which, perhaps, some of the crop eventually reaches the United States. Greece, Portugal, Turkey, Bulgaria, and some other countries at times furnish walnuts to the United States trade. Canada is sometimes mentioned as an importer. Its imports are through the port of Vancouver, and doubtless are Chinese nuts. Shelled Walnuts.— France has always been the most important source of imported shelled walnuts. The amount supplied by France 43 Unpublished tables compiled by authors. Bul. 475' Walnut Supply and Price Situation 41 has shown a general increase up to the past two years. A decrease in 1927 is largely attributable to a short 1926 crop in France. The percentage of the total shelled imports furnished by France shows, nevertheless, a slight decline. China, our other important source of shelled walnuts, has increased in importance during the past fifteen years. China at times appears to fill up a shortage in the French supply. This is very noticeable in 1927 and to a less degree in 1919. During the past five years France has supplied 69.8 per cent, China 17.2 per cent, and Spain 3.5 per cent of the total shelled import. 44 Tariff Eates on Walnuts in Percentage of Import Values 50 40 11 1 1 1 1 1 / V S~\ Unshe/fedj X fi x \ y^/\ ' AO f\ /\ Shelled, N/r %1 //v M ) S. 10 To - Specific Tariff Rates 10 Cents a pound Unshelled Shelled 1901 -Oct. 4.19/3 Oct4.l9l5-Sept.2Z.l92i Sept.2Z.I92Z-present 3 2 4 S' IZ v - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 x n $883 JS .« £ .3 g & * J5! J5 3 5 s .8 i* .« .3 jsj -3 $ ! S> 5 1901 -1918 Fiscal Years Ending June 30 5 5 i ^ S S: 1919-1927 Calendar Years 5 BfcgSs&as S S S li fi8^ § K! R S IS fl^^ X R ^ § Fig. 13. — This chart pictures the tariff rates as related to value of walnuts imported. The tariff act of 1922 gave shelled walnuts a greater relative increase in protection than unshelled. The data for figure 13 were compiled from Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States, 1901-1926, and for 1927, from the monthly summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, December, 1927. The percentages were obtained by dividing the total duty paid by the total import value of the walnuts. This is equivalent to dividing the specific tariff rate per pound by the import value. The value of imported merchandise "represents, up to and including May, 1921, the actual market value or wholesale price thereof at the time of exportation to the United States, in the principal markets of the country from whence exported, including the value of containers, or coverings, .... and all other costs, charges, and expenses incident to placing the merchandise in condition, packed ready for shipment to the United States Beginning with June, 1921, the import value represents either the actual foreign market value as defined above or 'the export value, including any tax imposed by the country of exportation,' .... whichever value is higher." The Tariff Act of 1922 defined the import value "as the foreign value or the export value, whichever is higher. If neither of these can be ascertained, then the United States value, or if none of the foregoing values can be ascertained, then the cost of production. If there be any similar competitive article manufactured or produced in the United States of a class or kind upon which the President has made public a finding as provided for, then the American selling price." 44 Unpublished tables compiled by the authors. The above percentages are on a fiscal-year basis for the earlier periods and a calendar-year basis in recent years. Crop-sales year data by countries are available only for recent years. If figured on a crop-sales year basis the results are but slightly different. 42 University of California — Experiment Station TARIFF The tariff on walnuts, no doubt, is one of the factors affecting the quantity of walnuts imported into the United States, but its effects are largely obscured by more powerful forces. The tariff act which became effective October 4, 1913, reduced the rate on unshelled walnuts from 3 cents to 2 cents a pound and the rate on shelled walnuts from 5 cents a pound to 4 cents. The tariff act effective September 22, 1922, raised these rates to 4 cents a pound for unshelled and 12 cents a pound for shelled walnuts. This rate has continued to the present time. The year following the enactment of the tariff of 1913 showed an increase in imports of unshelled walnuts, but a decrease in shelled walnut imports. The smallest quantity of unshelled walnuts imported during any crop-sales year of this century was in 1918-19 when the tariff rate was only 2 cents a pound. Curtailed shipping facilities late in 1918 were doubtless the explanation. The year following the enactment of the tariff act of 1922 showed a marked decrease of unshelled walnut imports, but even this decreased amount was larger than imports in 1920-21. Moreover, imports of shelled walnuts increased slightly in spite of the fact that this tariff is especially heavy on shelled walnuts. Furthermore, the imports of walnuts were con- siderably less in 1921 than in 1923 (table 11). Hence the decrease in imports of unshelled walnuts in 1922-23 cannot be attributed entirely to the tariff. WALNUT CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES The consumption of walnuts in the United States has increased more rapidly than the population. The per-capita consumption in terms of merchantable whole walnuts has increased from perhaps % pound at the beginning of the century to about 1% pounds at present. However, consumption fluctuates rather widely from year to year. In the crop-sales year of 1919-20 there was rather an abrupt increase in the consumption, which has been maintained except for 1920-21 and 1926-27. In table 13 an attempt has been made to compute consumption for crop years from 1913-14 to 1928-29. Data on domestic shelled-walnut production are lacking prior to 1922 but would not make an appreciable difference in the consumption figures of the last column. Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 43 Appakent Per-Capita Consumption of Walnuts in the United States, 1913-14 to 1927-28 Q/ O III 1 1 II I II I II II I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 /S/3 '/* */S J /6 77 V2t f Z2 '23 >24 'ZS »Z6 '27 Ye o*~& - sb eg inning Oc fob er /st Fig. 14. — Walnut consumption has increased considerably since the War. Shelled-walnut imports furnish a good index to the consumption of shelled walnuts, since most of those consumed in the United States are imported. It is estimated that only from 10 to 15 per cent of the domestic production is shelled. Figure 9 (p. 37) indicates that there has been a great increase in shelled-walnut imports during the past quarter of a century, although the imports have decreased after 1924-25. Whether imports continue to decrease as domestic produc- tion of nut meats increases remains to be seen. 44 University of California — Experiment Station r/j H p X ^ < £ fe O OS £ c-j rt 1 on H CI fc OS 2 r-H P DQ g >5 -t o rH ■4 CO h H OS Cu 1— 1 3 U M i Ph £ W3 W w ri H o «J H £ 13 ii O O" a 03 O aa Kt^OOOOOCOCOi-Ht^OOO^HCNIOO^H sa II S©0©0©Oi-i©i-i«-i«-ii-i^h©»-i a o ^ (B co 05.-. United State population January 1 llowing harv (000 omitted COO»00(MTtl-HCMlCOO^COr^CMOOO i-li-llOCftlOeN^H^HCOOOOOlOlOOOCNllO NNOlOOOlONTllHtDlBlONOOnN CCOHNn'J'lONOlONTfllONOlO Oi05©©©©00©^^H-H-Hi— li— ICN o parent amption erms of hantable walnuts MOOOCOlNMMfS^HCCfflOHIN ooCDt^.OSlOOOSCNOS'— I«OCO»OOCO'-H S^^O^N^MNOtOONtOHN S^NMHMeqocBooee^ocso ftsi+'oe MW^^MMeWlOlfllflON^N < is sS «*> 05 CO mports terms of chantabl e walnut oo5>— ii— ii— icoooe^c^r^i-Hioososoo cocD05COt^OCOCOOO^tl«D05002CO-* gHijlHOlffiiCtDlOnitlOlNOOlN SmroooesNHOioooiOHN^N CNC^CNCMi-li— icOi-HCOCNCO-^COCOCN 1-1 a v~o C++ o fl *3 o ^TtiOOOOCOCOt^TtlTtilCiiOOI^OOO !2i-l05»O-*00O00i— cOt^lCCOCOOOt^O -3 £ fi.s c -2 C3 c3 co « OO N o ■»*! CO i— l 1^ »o •— l 03 00 -* CO « 00 M< © O 05 © t-h CM i-H M-. 05 O— ' California production i merchantab walnuts o>05t^oeoi^ooN-oo-H»o>OTf00020iO->*lrHOO^H,Hi— 1 i-H i— irtrti— INHNNNININH^N bD C '3^ .3 05 bfi,Q 05 O -a *= So •*t T «C oc CT e OJ o- Tt f. CC oc a ! 05 HHHHrtHNNepNNNNNNN co^»ocot^ooo50rHCMco-<*i»ocor^oo Y« HHHHHHHWWNNNNNOIN o cr cr a cr a CT CT O a Cr a 9 Cr Cr o a li a C 05 Q, 05 ^ 2 S o oo -S "* o 1-1 ." **> CO OJ bfl CD ^5^2 « s e" g ,2 3 s h 3 ^ g • « « S 1:1 fc fl Ph o a ^ ^ oo » 3 5 2 fe -S o N 0) J W 2 ^ ° -Q « .3 § 8 •2 » " 2 03 ^ -e v > cs S « a m o tt o ^ a o >> 45 -a 03 +* 3 o* 03 a 05 co a 3 O .2 +2 .2 si T3 O $ a •s rt P s 05 ^ rfl 03 ■£ 05 ^ >> O 05 S l ^ 2 05 «G 2 a a i5 s 05 -a O* CN o 7 +5 co JH .2 D O 8 U c3 .2 o y pr* ''c e&* £% i\ / 4 v / V ft A m % \ \ J A ; 1 • • *•/ V r J /* "^c/rc /* Ot r/Wy /»« > vv « y -J— _I— i — 1— ,...1 _1— — L- 1 | 1 i I | — 1— /add 'oo *oa *©-* *o« # o« vo y* 7-* '/« va '*o '««£ **-* •*« •** Fig. 15. — There has been a slight upward trend in purchasing power of walnuts throughout most of the period from 1898 to 1928. During the last seven years of the period the purchasing power of walnuts averaged about 7 per cent higher than the purchasing power of farm products as a whole. If, for example, when walnut prices went from 14 cents in 1912 to 28 cents in 1918, all goods which walnut producers buy had gone up in the same proportion, the walnut producers could have bought as much food, clothing, shelter, etc., with each ton of walnuts as before. As a matter of fact, however, prices do not go up in like proportion nor at the same time, and there are long-time contracts. Hence the 48 University of California — Experiment Station producer of any given product is interested in knowing how much of other products his own product will buy from time to time. In column 5 of table 14 opening prices of walnuts have been con- verted to a base which makes allowance for changes in the price level so that this column roughly represents prices as they were during the period 1910-1914, inclusive. Column 6 merely represents the same figures in percentage of the average for the same period. The dotted line in figure 15 pictures roughly such a purchasing power for walnut prices. Purchasing power apparently increased somewhat up to the opening of the European War, then fell slightly, and has improved somewhat in the past few years. 46 The purchasing power of walnuts averaged about 7 per cent above that of farm products as a whole from 1922 to 1928. Wholesale prices to retailers will, of course, be 5 or 6 cents above the opening prices of the association, since they allow for transpor- tation and mechandising expenses and profits. TABLE 15 Deductions from Opening Price Values as made by the California Walnut Growers Association, 1923-1927 Year Trade discount Adver- tising Broker- age General expense Rebates Total deductions Deductions for advertising, brokerage, and expense only 1923 per cent per cent 2 21 If 2\ If per cent 11 li li n li per cent 1 3 1 1* 11 per cent per cent 51 5§ 8^ 6§ 5* cents per pound* 1.23 1.39 2 .01 1.83 1.38 per cent 4£ 4 5^ 4^ cents per pound* 1.01 1924 1.14 1925 1926 3* .96 1.55 1927 1.13 Source of data: Annual reports of Manager to Board of Directors of California Walnut Growers Association. * Compiled from data on opening price values and quantity of merchantable nuts sold. Data as follows: Year Pounds Opening-price values 1923 39,753,800 $8,961,906 1924 34,975,100 8,894,370 1925 48,160,170 11,572,141 1926 18,834,000 5,327,474 1927 34,564,000 8,648,872 46 For a comparison with purchasing-power figures for other commodities, consult other experiment station bulletins dealing with the economic aspects of given crops or products. See for example: Shear, S. W. Economic aspects of the pear industry. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 452:37, 38, 89, 90. 1928. Similar publications are available on approximately twenty California crops. A list of publications available may be obtained by writing to the College of Agriculture, Berkeley, California. APPENDIX OF TABLES 50 University of California— Experiment Station O (M O 1-1 ^ C^» Oi rH ^ m w bJD U> o rH U CI CO t* rO r-\ m $H o ^ fc hn 1 pq 3 < S3 H < bJO u 3 3 « 1» CD *1 rH O OcOrHCOOOOCOOOCO(MOO C C -* rH CM i-l — 03 "E a^ -2 Mg H £ us •* O ^Hcocoot~-cMOO-*r~-oo C3 00 ~H CO U5«13HHTJT(lH 01 O i- <^ CM CM OOOONICIO^OIHCIOM rQ a t^ US rH COIOCMCOCMCOOCOCOi-(t-( e O) CO y-> ~* CM ^H 1 S CO ■>* o t^iOCOOOCOOO CO>C(Mi-l >o rH CO CO(MCOCOcMCMcMO»-<* OO lO ^!0»HNIl}»WOJI011} w © 1 CO CO COi-HCOCD00500i-HO(McM rQ kv* rH rH CM rH G a© O fc 00 o C005t^-«*<>005COO"5t^O 5J C-) CM O ^^lOiOOOOO^NCOOOOO © iO CO M»«T)IINNT|IU}«0)a CJ OS i— i CM rH CD CO t- O0 -«H Oi co Oi •V» !JJ '-I •* o t^CMCOOOO»OcOI>.cMcMO V> <» f-i l~- H t^t^-H^iococoOi— i eo O t-» ^ s 1 ■«*< r- CM^t^rH M H N 11} W H .a i-l «5 rH H f) i-l !l CM rH cnosoooosoo-^ioco-* 03 cj O o CM»OcMOCOCO-«* ■* CO O lO-^lcOCOCMCOI^OOiOCO cc 00 C OOOOiiOCOiOOOCMCOiO !^ >o CO C iflHNONcoiotoniflTii 3 00 CO IH NiflHNNNMlflU} CO CM rH rH o oo ie ^HCM05I^t^.-HC0»000-^O o l^ CM rH r-l OB O CO OHWOOllNHOiON^ COCOOi»OOSi-HCJiOO»r-(^ CO r- us c CM S- t^ CO l> 0050510i-lTt<^HCMt^lO>0 OS CM CMCO rH-^rHCMtOrH T* M (^ CM rH rH a cr o ic 0»-HcOCMO>OCOOTfNHMOOMNT(iai o3 OS 4) § a CN CMCO H Tjt H H T» H CO pq CC CM rH rH N O t~ 003t^rHOCM03«OCO-*»0 "# t^ o c -HOO^Hcoiot^cMooeo-H-£ O rl MWHOoooo»OOlO 00 CC OOiOCOOcOCMOOcot^ >o i-IOOCOCOOrHi— 1 C O * 9 CM rH COCOr-I^HTtlO CM EC CM rH rH a a 03 03 a ja O V 03 cS rd J3 QJ (U H H >i "o "o "£ O XI rP H, a os o o e t t- e L ■ -2 § a a e 'a b e D a l I c Bernardi ta Barbar I! CC '/J OJ o> 1 ? ^ Cd-5«l(JI>fl(Sflr-rH c ) ) r- a c a f c c s c- > ^ ^ Ml S O a> b, o3 2 w .;-< ol &^ I s ° H «*; o a ° ^ o "S rH 03 ^ III leg g £ 8 G 13 r-J oa S ^ Bul, 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 51 W t5 |J * EH CO v_ w s M H P K co a> co •3 8 o-g ■h oo *o o- co co CM ir ee CM oc o" 'X O t^ i - Tot in ter of wh wain »o os ■>*< r- e> ee oc co cr >r cr C a- **■ >C cmT co" r-T t^ ^ !C >r te, cr c CO- c- >o cx oc -f CM t^ t^ -X o o "3 N N •* K se co CO C c^ CN t« c o o CO Ifl >c C >c CO ^1 •^ o" «« -X o H o U! c^ K c- CO U~3 K CO 0) N » ifl •* CC oc t> ■*t a OO Tf 1^ US M rt CO eu'E N CO t^ IN co X ■c* CO o ■«t «t cr •>* CT 5fi 00 CM T3 1 03 -»— -i— -t— cy C a- « ifl t>. c o- a- OO OS t-- OS 00 t# cr o GC a •»t 10 I « oc O CM CM >r CC CN I- ec 00 t- 1^ ~r d a i •K N » « ■<* »c w «* oc ec c ^ CO ■<* c<- CM O CO »C cr oc « [^ "* CC O CM — "O CM r- CM CO — co -* oc CC co ee t- CO CC OS t-~ >0 ^H c3 •-B 73 co M K) H X C oc IC c OC o- « 1- 1 CM a CO d * IC o CC ■d CO C o o "3 r- oo o •* t^. ■* fr- o- a CO oc c> ifl o o o H tji t~ cn in f^ ee- C X b- 5 tc tf "- ": E CN CO CO CO C « CM ■^ *d P t^ t^ CC i^ en OS O CO CC oc t co ■y- CC ec ee *C CC t^ CO OS 0) >- lO CO OO CC co t> -X M o CC oc 1^ oc o ■* OS CO c<" "* OS CM CC r^ oo a r- o o — ■x CC ec .r OS (-- ec I- •^ , CO -x 0) i-H CO t- u- oo w ttl cc" ic- k« 1 t>- o -G . . - 1 ■* cq CO o3 h CO « b- cr cr CO a ►"* P 1 -9 O CM CO C IG CC ec a c^- a OS CO 00 f 1 1 «c cr | O CO • - a io o oo -* « r^ i^ cr « >c- 1 CC ■JZ -H CO CM CO o e> — o CM C- co CM CM CM 1 ■«*< CO ^ 1— c pq 1 M be CO IN H c 2 •■- oc OS OS or CC CO CN IC i^ | CO CO -H CO oo -* GC oc V c" 00 ir iC. a - ~h cm co ir. O ■«* ec OS f- X CC 00 o cc o o K^ 1 "0 co * DO CN K t^ oc £ Cr oc CN c- CT 1 c OS CO CD CD N rt LC5 « CC ee tv a t> >f- oc ic- 1 cr T CC N OO - IX C rt l> 1 "* CM CM CO "35 pec - 1 ■ N 115 CM* c-4 — IC a CM T- ■>* c 1 ~ 1 Tf 1 1 I CO 1 Ih o Q. ec IC X B< cp (-. CO- a eS "e3 93 CM — s O a «♦- CO lO O rt (M a bj ) c T T 1 d V 1 j d 3 o 01 8 _~ eu O o 'Z u d '>. M ^ C IS a "5 G -r- ^Q o g ■e . 2 s « D os o S - V o> u 2 « £ § a § o -a 52 University of California — Experiment Station o §~ °§ CO o M ° § M s §1 » "^ CO oo oo CM o> x* o iO tO ia W3 01 o o C> r> CO >o O o "3 1h »-Hi-t^-<* t*< CO OS -G -5 COOO»OlOCOt^-t^l^05COCOCN05 (N lO ■* O) OS i-i o M^MOsn*M^«:o)>**!00 m oo Tj< ^ m O oo iO o O 3 o ^" ; rt c> o3 C©CMt~00C0t^OC0O»0 -t— -t— r— tj< ^_ _ l _ H l l t^ -*— X** -»— 3 bfi CM i-H •»*< lO t>- * O 00 *_ *_ H- «- «- t> CM lO if O t— a) Cp t-, r+ if m i-h rt >> c NN**tOOll50)a)-l-+- -»— -t— 00 -1— H— lO CO Tf t^ ^ 1^ 1*< 03 ■*NOOO)H*< s CM ^H lO if O CO -* if 00 o oo co CP o CO -H CO i-H l-H 8hhi8iOh^hN+- H— -1— H— CM •)— -1— -*—-»— H- OJ -t- o> ■*— s & if ^H if OO O OO — I (O H lO oo +-> bfi •H rt N CO H (N CO CM CM ss a 2 ^ CCO>CetO^M* O *h O co r— "«*< CO CO Oi WNiSOOl^NOlOSCCCNtOOOtN M£) O M O) CM CO i-H .-H CN CO CO CO i-H M Ol M CM CO M N N 00 »o ^* U> CO cS 14 fc J-c S^3 0)!Ort»-*NtOMfflHU5N(0» «o OO >o O O CM -^ CM CO ooooicNiooecoioaiMcNiO'* CO CO 'H CM O ^H o- NN"O^CO*nN «-H if »0 CO CO 00 CO CM iO «3 «5 CO CO ^ C T3 ificNCOifi-HOiOCNOTOicoOOOcN NetNO^NrtCN^lOHO^tN : » © N N O o ^ Ol O Grea Britai and Irelan : O if CN tf5 O t^ CN ■ tONHOiNOOOOlNONCNUSh : ^h O OS O iO OS CO os oo j l-H CN l-H l-H t3 CO CN05i-H^HOOlOOOOOOiOt^ifasifa3i-HCOOOr^t^ C35 CO CO CM

o>oocooaiooift^io*aco COOl^CNCNOOOOOCOCOifCOOcOCNCOCOCOOOC CN O" oo »o •2 o3 lO CO C -3 MW")»>OMffllO»NtO t^*OOi00©OiCNCN »o C pOQ CO c O a T»< CC X 03 i-H CN a> s en a >H O CN 3 2 ^H CS en a v H< CO <*- ^H (M O os as CD ill ++ b O OS OS N » » 6 -H N CO - S £ £3 S3 ^ £ £ ^» f— i <— % — ^^,^1-h^Hi-Hi-h*— t i— ti-HcNCNCNcNCNCNCN a> u * -1 "~ ' >• V a a a a a a a e e a a a a cr c O- a cr CT cr < P-. o ^ es O e o o « 9 3 S o P 5 « S « tills . « a e t, T3 -*• -a ct3 * CM t, 'S CO Ol pq a 2 o h O N o S -2 5 O cj 3 up « -h T3 » S "S ^ ^H .a cp s O rt -CO §^2 cp a a H^ 'o e i ? . ii 3 ^ h CN T3 .5 en s -S * ^ j|{ai .6 S S3 • ■ § 5 2 •t^ . . S « t: s 2 -2 6 3 o d 5 S « o 3 a? - ♦» Bul. 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 53 o CO SO EO ** ■* r~ eo co o o * o OS O o i - o "c3 >-it'^co _^ rt^^NlflOlOONN* (N © -H t~- ■*»< O oo •* CO CO a t^tO-^f^OS^COlNtO OS 00 IN -* OO > W N ^ IN CN CO IN lO IN -h "5 IN N CN IN o o bo H ^ a 00 >0 O IN * 00 M * « IN f 00«H » N IN ■** 1 - •— 1 IC N 0O OO IO N N Tf N if N U5 OO O to t~- -.*.— oo r^ co -> 03 * # ♦ » CO to to tO * co r^ to r-~ » -**< c© OS CO CO O O) N i- 1 rt Ol tO i- 1 to OS ■H O »-H CO •»*< IN ■»*< K5 IN CO «• o O c 0) * to tO * * t* ^H to * * N O * U5 N N OO CO -H OO ^-<*< "* o o GQ cS o3 OS-*-^<* OCOIOiONiONOOh O l« * IN » O) cm os NiOiOiOHNNH t~-.O^tO^HT-< T* OS G 03 i-H IN ° : h -HOSOSCNtotOOS*H©-«00-«* 03 fc~ gium nd xem- urg ,H-H»oooa>* ocoT*. © © OS O0 ^OOMNMNlOONN os t~- IN MO OO CN © IN OS (N !>• O CN 00 tO CO 13 s 3^> ■-« to" CO l-< -H ,-T ^H ■»* IN —l m ^ >> | c 03 N* ")l'llll5NOOlOH O-ftNt^^H^^t^O-^Ot^tNCOtOCO-^t^ OS to CO CO &i Ot^'— I CO •— l©l^00tNOSOSOS00OSCOt"~tO O to O Tt< t- .« tO -f ^£ NtNtN*<*NH<*»Olil5tON00iNi-iOl CN Ot i-iCNeOCNi-ii-Hi-iT-i »-l t-l CN CN IN IN ON ON "3 CO .-t^iotNi-ios ON O" t^ o <1) 0) Ot^(NCO-H'-l03CO > ■Jl J3 as a o 3 ^= & ♦J a Walnuts into the United States by Country, 1924-25 to 1927-28 (Thousands of pounds, i.e., 000, omitted) France Italy Spain Roumania China All other countries 1924-25 October 100 5,071 1,219 1,116 285 519 241 447 13 3,216 3,864 3,060 532 30 412 287 34 32 6 32 62 11 * 9 83 2,475 1,007 553 318 1,259 506 173 * 5 176 66 547 62 13 February 6 44 679 April 229 May 697 June 163 211 80 32 215 July 39 49 146 66 Total 9,060 11,567 26 772 6,374 2,698 1925-26 October 28 4,612 1,317 493 5 2,448 5,229 820 266 10 68 105 19 33 62 3 6 100 1,993 57 34 9 132 November 120 373 284 22 146 87 22 893 December 259 January 85 93 20 April May 6 288 1,118 15 169 203 July 43 117 270 28 232 18 25 1 Total 8,051 9,395 104 1,054 2,449 1,733 1926-27 370 374 517 143 194 316 49 55 246 268 198 59 2,510 8,343 770 23 * * 5 525 4,142 449 132 190 192 15 200 1 50 793 1,234 1,038 229 11 * 4 22 62 23 57 387 July 280 1 178 69 Total 2,789 11,652 * 2,049 5,846 2,388 Less than 500 pounds. Bul. 475 Walnut Supply and Price Situation 55 TABLE 20 (Concluded) France Italy Spain Roumania China All other countries 1927-28 195 999 173 14 54 50 43 86 103 2,074 2,039 441 1 1 1 70 2,279 86 20 299 7 98 5 5 2 25 41 25 5 1 4 34 July 10 171 227 157 61 Total 2,101 4,567 7 7 2,531 692 Sources of data: Figures for 1924-25 to 1926-27 from: U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts W32: 4-6. (mimeo.) Dec. 15, 1927. Data for 1927-28 compiled from: U. S. Dept. Com. Bur. For. and Dom. Com. Imports of walnuts and peanuts into the United States, by countries, (mimeo.) Figures for last year are preliminary and subject to revision. 56 University of California — Experiment Station table 21 Monthly Imports of Shelled Walnuts into the United States by Country, 1924-25 to 1927-28 (Thousands of pounds, i.e., 000, omitted) France Italy Spain Roumania China All other countries 1924-25 580 795 1,418 2,443 3,768 2,534 2,152 1,280 1,202 192 21 469 J60 75 19 40 27 57" 82 87 102 1 51 2 18 151 418 390 866 760 470 304 115 126 11 3 39 61 122 347 129 97 152 73 2 33 26 48 58 39 14 6 8 4 102 February 169 167 April 194 May 131 June 46 July 15 14 Total 16,854 750 1,034 203 3,631 913 1925-26 October 828 940 1,608 2,415 2,660 3,163 1,871 1,845 1,464 667 194 179 25 30 16 39 25 19 86 16 46 47 35 7 6 71 44 113 81 76 54 192 113 6 3 40 36 7 28 3 72 153 171 62 11 104 420 497 468 836 307 135 42 67 97 120 8 February 136 March 82 April 45 May 102 22 July 13 August 34 September 33 Total 17,834 391 759 507 2,973 671 1926-27 October 888 460 758 1,180 1,192 1,141 911 667 759 377 101 154 69 62 37 44 56 19 9 10 10 14 11 61 175 83 40 59 133 3 16 53 6 73 152 56 151 194 14 .140 430 1,274 1,641 1,989 1,066 838 560 91 57 November 15 180 188 February 552 March 472 April 385 May 183 23 July. 42 15 12 4 Total 8,588 328 595 699 8,029 2,116 Bui* 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 57 TABLE 21 (Concluded) France Italy Spain Roumania China All other countries 1927-28 249 766 1,265 1,982 2,227 1,875 1,094 1,245* 1,217 322 22 129 43 32 28 17 17 22 17 22 1 4 8 20 7 6 117 116 383 372 451 410 18 29 11 54 123 19 85 1,310 3 48 216 187 21 11 3 136 63 117 July 27 87 51 Total 12,393 203 300 38 1,880 2,291 * May value for France was listed for Austria but as it seemed this value should have been for France i nstead of Austria it is listed here as imports from France. Sources of data: Figures for 1924-25 from: U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign news on nuts W32: 4-6. (mimeo.) Dec. 15, 1927. Data for 1927-28 compiled from: U. S. Dept. Com. Bur. For. and Dom. Com. 'Imports of walnuts and peanuts into the United States, by countries, (mimeo.) Figures for last year are preliminary and subject to revision. 58 University of California — Experiment Station TABLE 22 Imports of Walnuts into United States by Months for Crop-Sales Years, 1912-13 to 1927-28 (Thousands of pounds, i.e., 000, omitted) UNSHELLED Oct. 1 to Sept. 30 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. 1912-13 1,105 8,161 3,354 443 331 299 834 1,226 385 1,129 559 1,110 1913 3,105 10,982 6,992 1,683 776 583 197 449 702 598 464 326 1914 2,562 4,411 9,716 1,712 1,214 334 562 416 23 37 19 80 1915 2,470 7,519 7,490 2,594 725 744 248 280 425 202 645 255 1916 882 4,924 10,970 4,102 1,321 519 1,148 488 211 266 505 241 1917 1,081 2,158 5,139 1,160 641 402 280 155 107 * * * 1918 * 109 451 368 102 225 349 910 827 729 1,765 821 1919 1,120 5,322 8,798 4,040 1,596 1,200 888 879 121 342 51 89 1920 1,136 2,912 2,819 868 453 335 413 1,678 1,430 2,083 2,333 966 1921 3,409 9,828 9,619 7,626 2,114 2,459 1,813 482 475 259 416 216 1922 1,096 9,722 5,150 969 403 275 305 532 570 11 4 53 1923 1,797 10,623 2,766 280 336 370 459 999 547 615 292 241 1924 3,415 12,133 5,413 2,214 683 2,869 1,263 1,351 423 256 307 160 1925 2,741 12,909 2,829 1,168 139 234 191 250 288 1,421 150 465 1926 3,455 14,690 3,199 309 388 592 92 312 634 548 377 128 1927 2,359 5,596 805 25 55 77 85 115 142 181 227 218 1928 SHELLED 1912-13 519 967 1,093 1,358 1,670 1,922 1,041 954 694 113 17 143 1913 604 516 1,069 1,082 1,376 1,593 1,217 748 449 72 2 30 1914 162 180 869 1,326 1,664 2,197 1,822 1,422 1,362 376 80 201 1915 553 851 1,349 1,777 2,044 2,001 1,909 1,602 1,487 709 249 171 1916 414 597 1,026 1,341 1,305 2,167 2,401 1,151 1,529 479 266 90 1917 196 313 1,020 402 1,236 1,319 1,737 2,576 1,523 512 170 102 1918 60 24 47 655 741 567 "804 2,649 1,365 505 769 55 1919 615 300 1,236 1,326 2,892 3,700 2,663 1,889 1,554 775 299 225 1920 88 130 277 735 1,601 1,854 1,983 1,029 1,646 339 46 56 1921 313 878 2,852 3,213 2,909 2,058 1,407 1,403 1,554 105 99 295 1922 764 852 1,550 2,498 2,325 3,356 2,829 2,085 848 348 98 377 1923 1,110 1,096 1,276 1,653 3,454 2,748 3,315 2,270 1,021 350 84 819 1924 896 907 1,682 3,151 4,749 3,811 3,324 2,134 1,733 333 151 494 1925 899 1,077 1,899 3,023 3,402 3,880 3,045 2,633 1,842 786 333 316 1926 1,081 694 1,539 3,013 3,580 3,812 2,624 1,845 1,355 526 116 162 1927 320 834 1,386 2,221 2,698 2,486 1,725 1,792 1,748 371 109 180 1928 * Less than 500 pounds. Sources of data: Monthly Summaries of Foreign Commerce of United States, July, 1912, to Dec, 1927. Later figures compiled from: Imports of walnuts and peanuts into the United States, (mtmeo.) Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, U. S. Dept. Commerce. For totals see table 11. The totals will not always correspond exactly with the sums of the above monthly figures since the latter are in part unrevised. Bul, 475] Walnut Supply and Price Situation 59 TABLE 23 Opening Prices as Named in the Organized Walnut Industry Date of naming opening prices Opening prices as named by walnut associations of southern California* Prices paid by Santa Ana Association Year No. 1 Soft Shell No. 2 Soft Shell No. 1 Hard Shell No. 2 Hard Shell Budded to members for No. 1 Soft Shellt 1896 Sept. 15 cents 8 9 7 8f 10 9* 10 12* ii 13 n 15 m hi 15 14 cents 6 7 5 71 8 n 8 loi 9 9 8 12 8* n ii ii cents 61 n 6 8i 91 8 91 12 101 m m 141 12 11 141 13* cents 4* 5* 4 7i 7* 7 7* 10 8* 8* 7* 11* 8* 7* 11 11 cents cents 1897 1898 Aug. 8 6 43 1899 Sept. 23 .. 7 41 1900 Sept. 15 . 9 50 1901 Sept. 21 Sept. 13 Sept. 16 8 52 1902 9 44 1903 11 94 1904 10 44 1905 Sept. 23 11 84 1906 Sept. 8 10 02 1907 Sept. 21 13.55 1908 Sept. 15 10 74 1909 Sept. 26 10 65 1910 Sept. 26 17* 16* 14 05 1911 Sept. 30 12 50 Opening prices of California Walnut Growers Association^ (old organization discontinued) No. 1 Soft Shell No. 1 Standard Hard Shell No. 2 Soft Shell and Hard Shell Fancy Budded Standard Budded 1912 Oct. 5 cents 14 16 16* 13 6 151 20 1 28 31* 22* 24* 22* 22 25 24 cents 13* 15| 1 cents 10 111 12 10 6 12* 16.1 25 26 16* 17 17* 15 16 15 cents 16* 19 20 17 19 24.1 31.5 34 25* 28 26 26 29 29 cents 1913 Oct. 4 1914 Sept. 24 1915 Oct. 2 1916 Sept. 30 1917 Oct. 2 21 1 1918 Oct. 1 29 1919 Oct. 1 32 1920 22* 1921 24* 1922 Oct. 3 22*11 1923 Oct. 4 1924 Oct. 9 25 1925 Sept. 30 22 Diamond No. 1 Diamond large budded Diamond medium budded Emerald No. 1 Emerald large budded Emerald medium budded Emerald babies 1926 cents 28 21 26 cents 32 25 98i cents 25 19 95 cents 25 18* 92 cents 28 22* 25 cents 23 17 29. cents 18 1927 Oct. 5 13 1928 Oct. 8 18* (Footnotes on page 60) 60 University of California — Experiment Station TABLE 23 (Concluded) FOOTNOTES * Opening prices as named by the Walnut Associations of southern California from 1896 to 1912 were compiled from the annual reviews of the walnut industry as published in the annual review number of the Calif. Fruit Grower from 1896-1912. The figures have been checked against the market reports of the Pacific Rural Press and agree rather closely with them. t These prices represent the prices paid by a large local to its members after all commission charges and local association expenses have been deducted from the opening price. The price series is as reported in: Calif. Walnut Growers Assoc. The walnut in California, p. 58. Calif. Walnut Growers Assoc, Los Angeles, 1919. t These figures have been compiled from the market and annual reviews of the Calif. Fruit Grower (later Calif. Fruit News) and have been checked against current market quotations in the Pacific Rural Press, the Western Canner and Packer, Bui. 379 (of the University of California), and with memoranda in the office of the Calif. Walnut Growers Assoc. As the latter source appears to be a compilation, some slight discrepancies occur, but, except in recent years, the figures from other contemporary sources have received preference. § Standard budded have at times also been called "Golden State Budded." ^ The grade of No. 1 Standards became relatively insignificant due to the elimination of the hard- shell walnut. Although some are grown the larger sizes are thrown into No. 1 Soft Shell and the smaller sizes go in with the smaller sizes of No. 2 Soft Shell. The No. 2 Soft Shell have been given the trade name of "Baby Soft Shell" by the Association. || Only a few Standard Budded — mixed with other grades. STATION PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION No. 253. 262. 263. 268. 277. 278. 279. 283. 304. 310. 313. 328. 331. 335. 343. 344. 346. 347. 348. 349. 350. 354. 357. 361. 362. 363. 364. 365. 366. 367. 368. 369. 870. 371. 373. 377. 380. 885. 386. 387. 388. 389. 390. 391. 392. 393. 394. 395. BULLETINS No. Irrigation and Soil Conditions in the Sierra Nevada Foothills, California. Citrus Diseases of Florida and Cuba Compared with those of California. Size Grades for Ripe Olives. Growing and Grafting Olive Seedlings Sudan Grass. Grain Sorghums. Irrigation of Rice in California. The Olive Insects of California. A Study of the Effects of Freezes on Citrus in California. Plum Pollination. Pruning Young Deciduous Fruit Trees. Prune Growing in California. Phylloxera-resistant Stocks. Cocoanut Meal as a Feed for Dairy Cows and Other Livestock. Cheese Pests and Their Control. Cold Storage as an Aid to the Mar- keting of Plums, a Progress Report. Almond Pollination. The Control of Red Spiders in Decid- uous Orchards. Pruning Young Olive Trees. A Study of Sidedraft and Tractor Hitches. Agriculture in Cut-Over Redwood Lands. Results of Rice Experiments in 1922. A Self-Mixing Dusting Machine for Applying Dry Insecticides and Fun- gicides. Preliminary Yield Tables for Second- Growth Redwood. Dust and the Tractor Engine. The Pruning of Citrus Trees in Cali- fornia. Fungicidal Dusts for the Control of Bunt. Avocado Culture in California. Turkish Tobacco Culture, Curing, and Marketing. Methods of Harvesting and Irrigation in Relation to Moldy Walnuts. Bacterial Decomposition of Olives During Pickling. Comparison of "Woods for Butter Boxes. Factors Influencing the Development of Internal Browning of the Yellow Newton Apple. The Relative Cost of Yarding Small and Large Timber. Pear Pollination. The Cold Storage of Pears. Growth of Eucalyptus in California Plantations. Pollination of the Sweet Cherry. Pruning Bearing Deciduous Fruit Trees. Fig Smut. The Principles and Practice of Sun- Drying Fruit. Berseem or Egyptian Clover. Harvesting and Packing Grapes in California. Machines for Coating Seed Wheat with Copper Carbonate Dust. Fruit Juice Concentrates. Crop Sequences at Davis. I. Cereal Hay Production in Cali- fornia. II. Feeding Trials with Cereal Hays. Bark Diseases of Citrus Trees in Cali- fornia. The Mat Bean, Phaseolus Aconitifo- lius. 397. 398. 400. 402. 405. 406. 407. 408. 409. 410. 411. 412. 414. 415. 416. 418. 419. 420. 421. 423. 424. 425. 426. 427. 428. 429. 430. 431. 432. 433. 434. 435. 436. 438. 439. 440. 442. 443. 444. 445. Manufacture of Roquefort Type Cheese from Goat's Milk. Orchard Heating in California. The Utilization of Surplus Plums. The Codling Moth in Walnuts. Citrus Culture in Central California. Stationary Spray Plants in California. Yield, Stand, and Volume Tables for White Fir in the California Pine Region. Alternaria Rot of Lemons. The Digestibility of Certain Fruit By- products as Determined for Rumi- nants. Part I. Dried Orange Pulp and Raisin Pulp. Factors Influencing the Quality of Fresh Asparagus after it is Har- vested. Paradichlorobenzene as a Soil Fumi- gant. A Study of the Relative Value of Cer- tain Root Crops and Salmon Oil as Sources of Vitamin A for Poultry. Planting and Thinning Distances for Deciduous Fruit Trees. The Tractor on California Farms. Culture of the Oriental Persimmon in California. A Study of Various Rations for Fin- ishing Range Calves as Baby Beeves. Economic Aspects of the Cantaloupe Industry. Rice and Rice By-Products as Feeds for Fattening Swine. Beef Cattle Feeding Trials, 1921-24. Apricots (Series on Californfa Crops and Prices). The Relation of Rate of Maturity to Egg Production. Apple Growing in California. Apple Pollination Studies in Cali- fornia. The Value of Orange Pulp for Milk Production. The Relation of Maturity of Cali- fornia Plums to Shipping and Dessert Quality. Economic Status of the Grape Industry. Range Grasses of California. Raisin By-Products and Bean Screen- ings as Feeds for Fattening Lambs. Some Economic Problems Involved in the Pooling of Fruit. Power Requirements of Electrically Driven Manufacturing Equipment. Investigations on the Use of Fruits in Ice Cream and Ices. The Problem of Securing Closei Relationship Between Agricultural Development and Irrigation Con- struction. I. The Kadota Fig. II. Kadota Fig Products. Grafting Affinities with Special Refer- ence to Plums. The Digestibility of Certain Fruit By- Products as Determined for Rumi- nants. Part II. Dried Pineapple Pulp, Dried Lemon Pulp, and Dried Olive Pulp. The Feeding Value of Raisins and Dairy By-Products for Growing and Fattening Swine. Laboratory Tests of Orchard Heaters. Standardization and Improvement of California Butter. Series on California Crops and Prices : Beans. Economic Aspects of the Apple In- dustry. No. 446. 447. 448. 449. 450. 451. 452. 453. 454. No. 87. 115. 117. 127. 129. 164. 166. 178. 202. 203. 209. 212. 215. 232. 238. 239. 240. 241. 243. 244. 245. 248. 249. 250. 252. 253. 255. 257. 258. 259. 261. 262. 263. 265. BULLETINS- The Asparagus Industry in California. The Method of Determining the Clean Weights of Individual Fleeces of Wool. Farmers' Purchase Agreement for Deep Well Pumps. Economic Aspects of the Watermelon Industry. Irrigation Investigations with Field Crops at Davis, and at Delhi, Cali- fornia. Studies Preliminary to the Establish- ment of a Series of Fertilizer Trials in a Bearing Citrus Grove. Economic Aspects of the Pear In- dustry. Series on California Crops and Prices: Almonds. Rice Experiments in Sacramento Val- ley, 1922-1927. (Continued) No. 455. Reclamation of the Fresno Type of Black-Alkali Soil. 456. Yield, Stand and Volume Tables for Red Fir in California. 457. Series on California Crops and Prices: Oranges. 458. Factors Influencing Percentage Calf Crop in Range Herds. 459. Economic Aspects of the Fresh Plum Industry. 460. Series on California Crops and Prices: Lemons. 461. Series on California Crops and Prices: Economic Aspects of the Beef Cattle Industry. 462. Prune Supply and Price Situation. 463. Series on California Crops and Prices: Grapefruit. 464. Drainage in the Sacramento Valley Rice Fields. Alfalfa. Grafting Vinifera Vineyards. The selection and Cost of a Small Pumping Plant. House Fumigation. The control of Citrus Insects. Small Fruit Culture in California. The County Farm Bureau. The Packing of Apples in California. County Organization for Rural Fire Control. Peat as a Manure Substitute. The Function of the Farm Bureau. Salvaging Rain-Damaged Prunes. Feeding Dairy Cows in California. Harvesting and Handling California Cherries for Eastern Shipment. The Apricot in California. Harvesting and Handling Apricots and Plums for Eastern Shipment. Harvesting and Handling California Pears for Eastern Shipment. Harvesting and Handling California Peaches for Eastern Shipment. Marmalade Juice and Jelly Juice from Citrus Fruits. Central Wire Bracing for Fruit Trees. Vine Pruning Systems. Some Common Errors in Vine Prun- ing and Their Remedies. Replacing Missing Vines. Measurement of Irrigation Water on the Farm. Support for Vines. Vineyard Plans. Leguminous Plants as Organic Fer- tilizers in California Agriculture. The Small-Seeded Horse Bean (Vicia faba var. minor). Thinning Deciduous Fruits. Pear By-Products. Sewing Grain Sacks. Cabbage Production in California. Tomato Production in California. Plant Disease and Pest Control. CIRCULARS No. 266. 267. 269. 270. 273. 276. 277. 278. 279. 282. 284. 287. 288. 289. 290. 292. 293. 294. 295. 296. 298. 300. 301. 302. 304. 305. 307. 308. 309. 310. 311. 312. 313. 314. Analyzing the Citrus Orchard by Means of Simple Tree Records. The Tendency of Tractors to Rise in Front; Causes and Remedies. An Orchard Brush Burner. A Farm Septic Tank. Saving the Gophered Citrus Tree. Home Canning. Head, Cane and Cordon Pruning of Vines. Olive Pickling in Mediterranean Countries. The Preparation and Refining of Olive Oil in Southern Europe. Prevention of Insect Attack on Stored Grain. The Almond in California. Potato Production in California. Phylloxera Resistant Vineyards. Oak Fungus in Orchard Trees. The Tangier Pea. Alkali Soils. The Basis of Grape Standardization. Propagation of Deciduous Fruits. Growing Head Lettuce in California. Control of the California Ground Squirrel. Possibilities and Limitations of Coop- erative Marketing. Coccidiosis of Chickens. Buckeye Poisoning of the Honey Bee. The Sugar Beet in California. Drainage on the Farm. Liming the Soil. American Foulbrood and Its Control Cantaloupe Production in California. Fruit Tree and Orchard Judging. The Operation of the Bacteriological Laboratory for Dairy Plants. The Improvement of Quality in Figs. Principles Governing the Choice, Op- eration and Care of Small Irrigation Pumping Plants. Fruit Juices and Fruit Juice Beverages. Termites and Termite Damage. The publications listed above may be had by addressing College of Agriculture, University of California, Berkeley, California, 20m-9,'29