p 2 C5 i/i THE AMBM-ICAN REVIEW REVIEWS m^ 33 CIIIr^TI REEK DISASTER AND EUROPEAN DISCORD By FRANK H. SIMONDS FENSE OF THE FORDNEY-McGUMBER TARIFF By EDWARD NELSON DJNGLEY OUR EXPERIMENT IN NICARAGUA By CHARLES E. CHAPMAN ITALY'S POLITICAL CRISIS By LEONARDO VITETTI WOMEN LEADERS OF MODERN EGYPT By GRACE THOMPSON SETON LUTES FOR ANTHRACITE By GEORGE H. GUSHING COLORADO'S GREAT TUNNEL By WAYNE C. WILLIAMS TWENTY YEARS OF LA FOLLETTE I Many other current topics in editorials, leading articles, pictures and cartoons '"^g^y^^rnP «^3^^ -^mm Are You Going Abroad? IF YOU are planning a trip to Europe, send the information blank below to your Government. Send it now, no matter when you intend to go, and learn about the great American ships — your ships — which now will take you there. You will be proud of this splendid fleet that is operated by the United States Lines. The George Washington, the America, and other ships of the line are among the finest afloat. 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You will be under no obligation, \ INFORMATION BLANK To U. S. Shipping Board ' Information Section Wasliington, Dj. C. U. S. B 1827 Please send without obligation the U. S. Governl-nent Booklet giving: travel facts and also information regaj-din? the U. S. Government ships. 1 am considering a tiip to Europe D to The Orient D to South America Cl, If I go date will be about Mj 'Same Lusiness or Profession Mj Street No. or R. F. D. Town V^ y UNITED STATES SHIPPING BOA Information Section B Washington, The American Review of Reviews EDITED BY ALBERT SHAW CONTENTS FOR OCTOBER, 1922 vr^.Lxvi Yvd) Mrs. Warren G. Harding The Progress of the World- Republican Prestige on the Wane. . Party Loyalty Desirable Shall We Have Another Deadlock? A Badly Staged Tariff Measure Politics in Making Tariffs. ■ ■ ■ 339 ■ 339 ■ 339 ■ 339 • 340 The Final Bill as Reported 340 The Embargo on Dye-stuffs 340 The Question of Potash 341 Mr. Fordney Accepts the Verdict 341 An Expert's Defense of Fordney 342 Both Parties for High Duties 342 American Markets Eagerly Sought 342 How Tariffs Affect Prices 343 The New Tariff is a Business Fact 343 National, Not Sectional 344 Next, the Bonus Bill 344 How the Senators Divided 344 Mr. Harding the Final Umpire 345 Financial Aspects of the Bonus 345 The President Under Criticism 346 No Personal Ruler Needed 346 The Public Must Be Aroused 346 Mr. Harding and His Party at the Polls. . . . 347 Bossism No Longer Controls 348 The Maine Elections 348 La Follette and Wisconsin Primaries 349 Michigan and the Newberry Issue 349 California and Hiram Johnson 350 From Puget Sound to Cape Cod 350 Maryland Takes the Primaries Serioush". . . . 350 Hard wick and Blease Defeated 351 "Run-offs" in Texas and Mississippi 351 State and Local Activity 352 The CoalMiners Return to Worl: 353 The Anthracite Agreement Later 353 British Coal Helps Out 353 The President's Unavailing Efforts 354 The Railroad Strike. 355 A Poorly Managed Episode 355 Incomes and Profits Fall Off 356 The Rates Are Too High 356 Ships at Wholesale 356 Supporting Our Merchant Marine. 357 America in East and West 357 Ireland's Griefs and Hopes 358 Recovery Proceeds in Europe 358 Opening the Public Schools 359 Pursuit of Higher Education 360 Phi Beta Kappa Becomes Active 360 With portraits, cartoons, and other illustrations Record of Current Events 361 With illustrations American Problems — in Cartoons 365 Investment Questions and Answers, 371 380 Frontispiece Greek Defeat and European Discord. . By Frank H. Simonds The Women Leaders of Modern Egypt. By Grace Thompson Seton With portraits A Tariff to Raise Revenue and Reduce Unemployment 387 By Edward Nelson Dingley Substitutes for Anthracite 395 By George H. Gushing Twenty Years of La Follette 398 By an Onlooker With portrait Colorado's Great Tunnel ' 401 By Wayne C. Williams With portrait and other illustrations An American Experiment in Nicaragua . 405 By Charles E. Chapman With portrait and other illustrations Brazil in Pictures 411 Italy's Political Crisis 417 By Leonardo Vitetti With portraits Efficiency in State and Local Govern- ment 421 By Marjorie Shuler Leading Articles of the Month — The Victorious Turk 422 Germany and the League of Nations 424 Industrial Courts 425 Chicago's Clearing House for Freight 427 Doing Business by the Weather 428 "Game" as an Economic Asset 429 Oral Funeral Rites in Ireland and Elsewhere . 43 1 Assimilation of Foreigners in France 433 Italy Misunderstood by the French 434 French Railroads and the Eight-Hour Law. . . 435 An Extreme German View 436 Pan-Germanist Propaganda 437 King Constantine's Return to Greece 439 Narcotic Dreams and Their Aftermath 440 Forest Fire Losses of 1922 441 Instinctive Habits of Spiders 442 The British Farmer 443 News of Nature's World 444 With portraits, cartoons, and other illustrations The New Books , 446 Page 6, advertising section TERMS;— Issued monthly, 35 cents a number, S4.00 a year in advance in the United States and Canada. Elsewhere $4.50. Entered at New York Post Office, as second-class matter. Entered as second-class matter at the Post Office Department, Ottawa, Canada. Subscribers may remit to us by post-office or express money orders, or by bank checks, drafts, or registered letters. Money in letters is sent at sender's risk. Renew as early as possible in order to avoid a break in the receipt of the numbers. Bookdealers, Postmasters and Newsdealers receive subscriptions. THE REVIEW OF REVIEWS CO., 30 Irving Place, Nev^^ York Pacific Coast Office, 327 Van Nuys Bldg., Los Angeles, Calif. , Albert Shaw, Pres. Chas. I>. Lanier, Sec. and Treas. 337 Bachrach MRS. HARDING, WHOSE ILLNESS AROUSED THE NATION'S SYMPATHY (It was announced on September 8 that the wife of the President had been taken seri- ously ill, and for several days the bulletins were far from encouraging. After a week, however, came the cheering news that the invalid was out of danger. Our Presidents have generally been fortunate in the support and co-operation of wives who have gained the affectionate esteem of the country by reason of their display of the best qualities of American woman- hood. No President, it may be said, has been more fortunate than Mr. Harding in having the constant support and aid of a wife who has not only exceptional fitness for the social duties of her place as mistress of the White House, but who has a talent for affairs and is an adviser of calm judgment and rare wisdom. She was Miss Florence Kling, of Marion, Ohio, and was married to Mr. Harding July 8, 1891, The future President had gone to Marion and engaged in newspaper work at the age of nineteen or twenty, and he was not yet twenty-six when he married Miss Kling) 338 AN AMERICAN EXPERIMENT IN NICARi^GUA BancroWibr^ CHARLES E^^HAPMAN '^^^'^ (Associate Professor of Hispanic American History in the University of California) IN his pre-election campaign in 191 2 Woodrow Wilson denounced President Taft's intervention in Nicaragua as an un- justifiable act of imperialism. That, no doubt, represented the honest opinion not only of Mr. Wilson but also of thousands of thinking people in the United States. It was a natural supposition that the company of Marines sent to Managua, the capital of Nicaragua, by President Taft would at once be withdrawn following the inauguration of President Wilson. But the Marines stayed. And they are there yet. Furthermore, Pres- ident Wilson began a series^ of interventions in other American countries that surpassed the combined efforts of his predecessors of more than half a centur^^ In Mexico, Vera Cruz was occupied, and later Pershing was sent on a wild-goose chase after Pancho Villa. Cuba and Panama were forbidden to indulge in the local sport of revolution as a means of choosing a President. And Haiti and Santo Domingo were effectually occu- pied by armed forces of the United States which still control the destinies of those island republics. An ac- count of the American intervention in both coun- tries appeared in the July number of this Review. A report by Dr. Carl Kel- sey, of the University of Pennsylvania, gives full details of our occupation of the island. Clearly some explana- tion of these acts should be forthcoming. At first sight, one might otherwise be pardoned for believing that the apostle of "self- determination of peoples" was in fact as great a "hypocrite" as he has been charged with being by certain Spanish-Ameri- can writers. The truth seems to be that Mr. Wilson did not fully understand the situation before he came into office. After- ward, he became at least partially in- formed, realizing the unavoidable necessity of some action in the nearer republics of Hispanic America. He may be criticized for the ways in which he carried out his numerous interventions, but not for the facts of the interventions themselves. It is the purpose of this article to give a rapid survey of one such intervention- begun, indeed, by President Taft — an inter- vention which, on the whole, reflects credit on the American people. TJie Interests of Europe The five republics of Central America, of which Nicaragua is one, have been the scene of probably more revolutions in the past hundred years than any other region of equal area in the world. If the Central American countries alone were to be con- sidered, one might indeed keep "hands off," and let them "stew in their own juice." THE REPUBLIC OF NICARAGUA IN ITS RELATION TO OTHER CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES 40s 4o6 THE AMERICAN REVIEW OF REVIEWS So, too, might the United States forego the undoubted rights in international law of her own citizens to protection of life and prop- erty in their legitimate dealings with those republics. But there is a third element which cannot thus easily be put off — the interests of Europeans. European nations have been unwilling to *'tum the other cheek" or "bare the solar- plexus" for the blows which Central Ameri- can revolution and bankruptcy would rain upon them. England, in particular, has in- sisted that the rights of her nationals be protected, including payment of debts owing to them. Carried to a logical conclusion — as they have been in every continent of the world except the two Americas! — the de- mands of European Powers would long ago have resulted in annexations or protec- torates in the greater part of Hispanic America, if it had not been for the Monroe Doctrine. Under the circumstances, Euro- pean "diplomatic pressure" in Central America has not always been effectual. Therefore, Europe has gone to Washington, and said: "If you are unwilling tohave us go into these countries, see to it yourself that our rights are protected." Obviously, the United States has been obliged to do one of two things: intervene, or abandon the Monroe Doctrine. No American Presi- dent has as yet consented to drop the famous principles enunciated in 1823. Therefore, there has been intervention — of a sort, usually half-hearted, ill-informed, badly managed. Among all such interven- tions in recent years that in Nicaragua stands out like a luminary in the heavens as one that has been a success — in spite of misunderstanding at our national Capital that at times threatened to kill it. ~ Revolution and an Empty Treasury In 1893 General Jose Santos Zelaya came into power in Nicaragua as the result of a successful revolution. From that time for- ward, for sixteen years, he ruled Nicaragua as his own interests and caprice dictated. He robbed and murdered. He desecrated homes. He rode roughshod over foreign interests, so that it was impossible to have any dealings with him. In 1909 a revolution against Zelaya broke out in Bluefields. Early in the campaign two Americans, Groce and Cannon, who were fighting on the revolutionary side, were captured by Zelaya and brutally put to death. This incident, of no [;reat impor- tance in itself, seems to have determined President Taft to get rid of Zelaya. So when the latter's troops approached Blue- fields, which is in fact a center of foreign interests along the Atlantic coast, the United States Government forbade them to bombard the town. Consequently, Zelaya w^as unable to take Bluefields. This proved to be the decisive factor of the war, which shortly afterward resulted in victory for the revolutionary party. Zelaya himself got safely away to Europe, there to enjoy the loot which sixteen years of unbridled rule in Nicaragua had given him. The American Collector of Customs The situation which the new government faced was chaotic in the extreme. The Nicaraguan peso had declined from a nor- mal value of fifty cents to ten, and two years, later fell to five. The treasury was empty, and it became necessary to default on the country's bonds. In this situation the Nica- raguan Government in 19 10 appealed to the United States for help. The State Depart- ment responded with much friendly assis- tance, and was the means of arranging for a loan from two New York banking houses. Brown Brothers & Company and J. and W. Seligman & Company. A treaty negotiated between the United States and Nicaragua provided for the appointment of a Collector General of Customs approved by the Presi- dent of the United States. This was in- tended to restore a sound financial condition in Nicaragua. The treaty failed in the United States Senate, but through the aid of the New York bankers, under the aus- pices of the State Department, the main idea was nevertheless carried out. Ten years have passed since the American intervention got fairly under way in 191 2. If an attempt had been made to pick the very worst time in the history of Nicaragua for the experiment, this decade might well have been chosen. Right at the outset, in 191 2, there was a serious revolution, headed by General Mena, the powerful Minister of War. The State Department had gone too far to draw back now, and, at the request of the Nicaraguan Government, sent in a body of Marines to protect foreign interests. In effect this caused the failure of the revo- lution. It was clear that another would break out as soon as the Marines were with- drawn; so the government of Nicaragua v asked that they should remain at Managua. ), This they did, and at the express and re- I AN AMERICAN EXPERIMENT IN NICARAGUA 4C7 iterated wish of the Nicaraguan authorities they have remained ever since. The treaty of 191 1 had provided for a loan from the New York bankers of $15,- 000,000, most of which was intended to be appUed in refunding the national debt, and in settlement of claims. The establishment of a National Bank, stabilization of the currency, and build- This was a grave setback, but the Nicara- guan Government went ahead as best it could. The State Department persuaded the New York bankers to lend $1,500,000 for the establishment of a National Bank and stabilization of Nicaraguan currency on a par with the dollar. A Mixed Claims Commission was established, two of whose three members were ing of a railroad to the Atlantic coast were other features. Security for pay- ments of interest and for the eventual repayment of the loan was based pri- marily on the Cus- toms Revenues, and the control of the National Bank by the New York bank- ers. At the sug- gestion of the State Department, Colonel Clifford D, Ham was appointed Collector General of Customs. Colonel Ham came to this post after a long experience in the Philippines, through which he learned not only how to handle cus- toms revenues but also — and this was more important — how to deal with a Spanish civilization. He took charge in December, 191 1, and is still in ofhce. When Nicaragua Faced Bankruptcy But, as already stated, the United States Senate failed to ratify the treaty, and the loan was not made. The result to Nicaragua is summed up by Colonel Ham as follows: The failure of the treaty delayed the reforms for seven years, all except the new currency system, and the railroad has not been built yet. If the Senate had ratified the treaty, the Revolution of 191 2 might not have happened (it cost Nicaragua a couple of millions more), the creditors and claim- ants could have gotten better terms, and a settle- ment in 191 2 and 1913 instead of 1917-1918, and the railroad would probably have been built before now. The financial difficulties of the years 1913 to 191 7 would probably not have happened. The Senate cost Nicaragua dearly. © Harris & Ewing HON. CLIFFORD D (Who has been Collector-General of Customs for the Republic of Nicaragua since 1911. Previously Colonel Ham had performed similar work in the Philippines, after service in the Spanish- American War) appointed by the American Secretary of State. This body worked from 191 1 to 1 9 14, passing on nearly 8,000 claims, reducing them in amount from $13,- 800,000 to $1,800,- 000. Only the small- est claims could be paid at the time, however, owing to lack of funds. In 191 2 occurred the already - men- tioned Mena revolu- tion, adding to the financial embarrass- ments of the coun- try. In 1 9 13 En- gland, France, Italy, and especially Ger- many, made strong representations both at Managua and Washington in favor of debts owing their nationals. By this time the Wilson Ad- ministration had come into power, and it began to see matters in a different light from that of preelection days. European diplomats were informed that the United States would take a friendly interest in their claims. The Great War, breaking out in 19 14, postponed political pressure, but nearly ruined Nicaragua finan- cially. That country had depended primarily for its revenues on its shipments of coffee to Europe. This source of income now failed. Only the consent of the American and En- glish creditors to a suspension of interest and sinking-fund payments on their bonds car- ried the government over the next three years. Even so, teachers and many other employees of the government — always ex- cepting the army and the police! — had to go for months at a time without pay. HAM, OF IOWA 4o8 THE AMERICAN REVIEW OF REVIEWS Various expedients were tried to relieve the situation. One of these was the sale of 51 per cent, of the stock of the Pacific Rail- road to the bankers for $1,000,000. Of far greater importance was the Chamorro- Br>an Treaty of August 5, 19 14, negotiated before the outbreak of the Great War, but not ratified until considerably later. The principal feature of this treaty was the pur- chase by the United States from Nicaragua, for $3,000,000, of an option for the United States to build a canal through Nicaragua. An attempt by the German Government to acquire rights along the canal route was one of the hastening factors in the negotiation of this treaty. But the Senate held up the treaty until June, 1916, Congress failed to appropriate funds until some months later, and the money was not available until July, 1917. How the Problem Was Solved In 19 1 6 and early in 191 7 matters were at their worst. Everybody was dissatisfied. The American intervention up to this point seemed decidedly to have been a failure. It was just at this time that a brilliant scheme was devised which saved the situation and put Nicaragua on her feet. Many persons contributed to the result, but there were sev- eral who seem entitled to special credit. It was the Collector General, Colonel Ham, who suggested the basic idea of the now famous Plan of 191 7 — that of a financial reorganization and readjustment of the na- tional debt. But General Emiliano Cha- morro (President from 1917 to 1921 and now Minister to Washington), Martin Benard (Minister of Finance), and the of- ficers of the bank had much to do with work- ing out the details. The project was so unusual that on one occasion General Cha- morro pointed to a chandelier and said he would hang himself from it before he would accept the Plan. Further study convinced him of its merit, and events have amply proved his latter judgment right. The Plan of 191 7 left the bonded foreign debt intact, but provided for the payment of all floating foreign and internal debts and claims in a reduced amount of cash and domestic lx)nds. The future finances of the countr>' were taken into account through the adoption of a budget system and the establishment of a certain measure of control by the United States Govern- ment. The last-named object was attained through the founding of a High Commission, one of whose members was to be a Nicara- guan and the other an American, appointed by the American Secretary of State. In- case of disagreement, a decision was to be rendered by a third member, also an Amer- ican. The budget stipulated a certain sum that the government could spend each month. Beyond that amount its expendi- tures must, in the main, receive the approval of the High Commission. Other features of the Plan provided funds for payments of interest and the amortization of the do- mestic debt, which w^as to be administered by the High Commission. The whole ar- rangement was approved not only by Nicaragua but also by the bankers and the State Department of the United States. Excellent results were obtained almost at once. The creditors accepted the Plan, and have since received interest regularly on their bonds. These securities, known as Guaranteed Customs Bonds (since they are secured in part by a percentage of the cus- toms revenues) are now in such favor that they are being sought abroad for invest- ment; in 191 8 considerably over half were owned in Nicaragua, while now two-thirds are held by foreigners. The arrears in in- terest on the foreign bonded debt have been paid, and the principal reduced in amount. And the credit of the country was so greatly improved that it was able to negotiate a fresh loan in 1920, with the idea of re- purchasing the 51 per cent, of stock out- standing of the Pacific Railroad and of constructing another road to the Atlantic coast. The first of these objects has since been accomplished, though the manage- ment of the line is still retained by the bankers as part of their security. Some Complaints that Persist Nicaragua is not yet wholly "out of the . woods" economically, but this is chargeable ^ rather to bad luck than to any fault in the • system. She could not escape the world de- pression, though its effects. were not felt until 192 1. In that year, also, heavy rains at the wrong time ruined the coffee crop, re- sulting in an assured continuance of the depression through 1922. So there is still some dissatisfaction. People are prone to interpret the financial system in terms of their personal good or bad fortune. In par- ticular one hears a perfect din of complaints against "the Bank." The writer made an\ attempt to inquire into the precise charges, '1 but, without hearing that institution's side I AN AMERICAN EXPERIMENT IN NICARAGUA 409 of the case, has concluded from the argu- ments of its enemies that it is desendng of praise rather than censure. The complaints — made with fervent sincerity! — are in no respect different from those of cheap-money advocates in all eras of depression every- where. Many of the charges do not merit serious consideration — such, for example, as that of an iniquitous plot to lower the price of coffee. Indeed, the only concrete thing alleged is that the bank would not lend money to those who needed it, and, through its monopoly of the right of issue, would not put more money into circulation; hence the denunciations on the part of those who could have saved themselves through the medium of a loan — which, incidentally, they could not get, either, from the English banks. The country most assuredly is better off as a result of the bank's sound policy, even if individuals lost. The man in the street will, of course, never recognize this. Thus 'Hhe Bank" in Nicaragua is the same sort of opprobrious epithet as is ''Wall Street" in the United States. Many excellent men there, as here, join in the clamor, and few rise to defend what is, after all, one of the most beneficent institutions in the country. What Nicaragua Has Gained Through American Intervention At this point it may be well to sum up some of the economic advantages thus far derived from the American intervention. Nicaragua has been made solvent, and its money circulates at par with the dollar. How many other countries of the world can say as much? In 1920 and 192 1 the mer- chants of Nicaragua, almost alone in His- panic America, did not reject American goods for which they had previously con- tracted. There were, indeed, some read- justments on goods delivered after prices had fallen from those of the original con- tract, but the amounts involved were small, and there were no disputes over these mat- ters. In the light of the thousands of tons left to rot and ruin on the docks of Cuba, Colombia, Argentina, and almost every- where else, this is a remarkable record. Circulation, in terms of gold, has increased from an average of about $1,300,000 prior to 1909 to over $2,000,000 now. The national debt has been reduced from %^2,- ^ 000,000 in 191 1 to less than $10,000,000 at the present time. And Nicaragua, though desperately poor for the moment, is in a position to profit by the first revival of prosperity. Indeed, few countries of the world are in a fundamentally more sound financial condition than is Nicaragua. Coffee, bananas and sugar comprise more than half of the exports of Nicaragua, while cotton goods, flour, iron and steel manufactures, petroleum, and chemicals constitute nearly half of the imports. In 192 1 the country bought goods abroad to the value of $5,310,000 and sold abroad to the extent of $8,071,000. Trade with the United States, both imports and exports, accounted for $10,000,000 out of a total foreign commerce valued at $13,381,000 in 192 1. Nicaragua's foreign trade, it should be noted, was from two to three times as large in 1920 as in any year prior to the coming of the American financial advisers. Politics aftd Parties It is possible that the political advantages of the American intervention even outweigh the economic. To make this clear, a brief review of events is necessary. At the outset the Liberal party, which has been out of power since the overthrow of Zelaya, was opposed to ever)^ phase of the "Ameri- canismo." They made the fullest use of their opportunity to cry out patriotism as against the foreigner. With the vocal advantage of the party out of power, the Liberals have persuaded both themselves and several: foreign writers that they have an overwhelming majority in Nicaragua, and are only prevented from acquiring control of the government because of the support given the Conservative party by the United States. As to the first of these assertions, the writer is convinced that one would be very rash to claim a ma- jority for either party. The sanitary census of the admittedly unbiased International Health Board, to say nothing of the national census of 1920, is a strong argument in favor of the Conservative contention as to distri- bution of the population, and can be set off against the ardent Liberal insistence in their own superior numbers. The matter has never been put to a real test, however, for it is true that the United States has virtually backed the Conservative party; indeed, our Government has even been obliged to take an interest in the selection of a President, and its wish, if clearly expressed, would be determining. To be sure, there have been a number of elections in the past ten years in which the Conservatives have uniformly tri- 4IO THE AMERICAN REVIEW OF REVIEWS umphed. But there are very few countries in Hispanic America where the party in power ever loses an election! Why has it been necessary for the United States to favor one party as against another? Given the Liberal attitude it was impossible to do anything else. Otherwise there would have been a revival of the familiar cycle: revolution — repudiation — European de- mands — and a fresh intervention, or else an abandonment of the Monroe Doctrine. In this connection the fact that the State De- partment influenced the New York bankers in the making of their financial arrangements with Nicaragua cannot be overlooked. The situation has not been a pleasant one for our Government to face, and there have been complaints in Nicaragua because the State Department has at times endeavored to dodge its responsibility. Thus, in the presi- dential election of 1920, the State Depart- ment announced that it would not favor any single candidate over another, and this has brought about something very like a split in the Conservative party. Nevertheless, a long-continued intervention in the face of a hostile majority, or near-majority, could hardly be viewed with favor in the United States. It is therefore important to see whether there has been any change in the situation which gives promise of freeing us from our obligations in Nicaragua. The Liberal, or Opposition^ Party Happily, it is true that the attitude of the Liberals — ^certainly that of their leaders — has changed. There are still some bitterly '* an ti- Americanist" Liberals against the in- tervention on every score. There are still occasional attacks not only against ''the Bank" but also against the Marines. Sev- eral months ago there was a shooting affray between some of the Marines and the police of Managua. Thereupon, the Liberal press clamored to high Heaven for the removal of this foreign host — incidentally, one hundred and thirty men. Then came rumors that Washington was considering whether the Marines should not be taken away permanently — and, as if touched by a magic wand, the Liberal papers relapsed into silence. The truth is that the Liberals are now more interventionist than the Conservatives — at least, temporarily. In conversation they will tell you that they accept American management of the customs revenues; in- deed, the efficiency and honesty of the cus- toms service is pretty well recognized. In like manner they accept the High Commis- sion. They approve of the presence of the Marines as an assurance of peace. They ask for further intervention in the form of American control of elections. In fact, the only thing they clamor against is the Bank. The writer is inclined to believe that a year of prosperity in 1923, which now seems probable, will somewhat soften the asperity of their opposition to the Bank. In the light of the financial achievements of the past ten years, the Bank would seem to be ' a poor political issue. The Conservatives' might meet it by claiming that financial success was due to them — perhaps despite the Bank. The real complaint of the Liberals is that they do not have a fair chance, at present, to win an election. This they are not likely to get until they drop their cry of "anti-Americanismo." Meanwhile, a first step has been taken look- ing toward the solution of the election problem. An expert in political science. Dr. H. W. Dodds of New York, has re- cently spent several months in Nicaragua working out a just election law and has submitted his findings to the government. One may well wonder why there has been such a change in Liberal opinion. Two fac- tors are primarily responsible: the econdinic benefit that has come to Nicaragua, despite disheartening handicaps, though there are many who still fly in the face of facts and deny any economic improvement; and the growing confidence in the friendliness of the United States, convincing all elements in Nicaragua that no American conquest is in contemplation. This much is surely a great achievement! The United States obtains the purely negative advantage of protection of her citizens, and safeguarding of the Monroe Doctrine. Beyond this it is plainly to her interests not to go. Not only is a realization of this dawning in Nicaragua, but there is also a glimmer of appreciation ot that fact in the other Central American countries. Guatemala, Salvador and Costa Rica are just now negotiating loans that must involve a similar penetration of Amer- ican interest, if the loans go through. Eventually, it is to be hoped, it will be possible to bring about an entire withdrawal of American control without risk of revolu- tion and a total upsetting of political and financial stability. The day that the sever- ing of the American connection shall come depends upon the Nicaraguans themselves. ^^^■.-^■^mjm0^ Lithomount Pamphlet Binder Gaylord Bros. Makers Stockton, Calif P^T- WN 21. 1908 ' i ■i