University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ANNUAL AVERAGE F.O.B. PRICES OF CALIFORNIA CANNED APRICOTS, 1926-27 to 1936-37 by H. R. Wellman June, 1937 Contribution from the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Mimeographed Report No. 60 OIWEKSITYOF CALIFORNIA > LIBRARY 1 BRANCH OF THE rmlEGE OF AGPICULTi;'- STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ANNUAL AVERAGE F.O.B. PRICES OF CALIFORNIA CANNED APRICOTS, 1926-27 to 1936-37 H. R. Wellman U The purpose of this report is to present the results of an analysis of the major factors which have influenced the annual average f.o.b. prices received for canned apricots by canners in California from 1926-27 through 1936-37. It should be clearly recognized that the results presented herein explain only what has occurred. They do not forecast what will occur in the future. The analysis is intended merely as a guide to those interested in estimating either the probable price at which a given quantity of canned apricots can be sold or the probable quantity of canned apricots which can be sold at a given price under specified conditions. In this analysis the average relationships which prevailed from 1926-27 through 1936-37 between the f.o.b. prices of canned apricots and two factors were measured. These two factors are (l) total shipments of California canned apricots, and (2) index of prices of competing canned fruits. It should not be assumed that these two factors were the only ones which affected the annual average f.o.b. prices of canned apricots from 1926-27 through 1936-37, or that they are the only ones which will affect the average f.o.b. prices during the coming years. Neither is it certain that the relationships between the f.o.b. prices of canned apricots and the factors measured will be the same in the future as they wore on the average during the period covered by the analysis. The index of prices of competing canned fruits reflects not only changes in the supplies of canned peaches, canned pears, and canned pineapples from year to year, but in addition it takes into account changes in the supplies of other pro- ducts which compete with canned fruits and also changes in the buying power of consumers. It would, therefore, be a duplication to include these factors in the analysis after having already used an index which reflects them. For reference purposes, however, the shipments of canned peaches, canned pears, and canned pine- apples, and the index of urban consumers' income in the United States are given in table 5. 1/ Associate Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station and Associate Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. TABLE 1 Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of California Canned Apricots and Important Factors Affecting them, 1926-27 to 1936-37 California Index Year V n K canned prices June through May price apricot competing shipments canned fruits 1 2 dollars 1,000 per cent per case cases* 1926-27 3.85 2,847 99 1927-28 3.97 2,409 90 1928-29 3.67 2,789 90 1929-30 3.97 2,988 106 1930-31 3.32 2,597 82 1931-32 2,64 2,037 66 1932-33 2.23 1,997 59 1933-34 2.37 2,572 67 1934-35 3.47 1,714 74 1935-36 2.93 2,547 71 1936-37 2.75 3,515 73 t * No. 2 1/2 can basis. f Preliminary — subject to. revision. Sources of data: Col. 1: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are weighted average prices received by canners, f.o.b. cannery or dock, for all grades and sizes of cans on an unadvertised basis. Regular brokerage, cash discount, swell allowance, label allowance and case allowance are included. Col, 2: From table 3, col. 4. Col. 3: From table 4, col. 7. Fig. 1. — California canned apricots: Average f.o.b. prices received by canners related to (a) shipments of canned apricots, and (B) index of prices of competing oanned fruits, 1926-27 to 1936-37. On the average (A) an increase in total shipments of canned apricots from 2,500,000 cases to 3,000,000 cases has been accompanied by a decrease of 21 cents a case in the average f.o.b. price, and vice versa; and (B) an increase in the index of competing canned fruit prices from 70 to 80 has boon accompanied by an incrjaso of 59 cents a case in the a-vorago f.o.b. prico, and vico vorsa. r TABLE 2 Actual and Estimated F.O.B. Prices of California Canned Apricots 1926-27 to 1936-37 Prices Adjustment Prices Year Actual estimated Residuals for competing explained Col . 1 June through May prices from from fruit prices by two minus fie. 1A from fig. 13 factors col . 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 dollars dollars dollars dollars - dollars dollars per case per case per case per case per case per case 1 QPA 97 +0 213 +0.36 3.88 -0.03 1927-28 3.97 3.72 +0.25 +0.12 3.84 +0.13 1928-29 3.67 3.54 +0.13 +0.12 3.66 +0.01 1929-30 3.97 3.46 +0.51 +0.51 3.97 0 1930-31 3.32 3.62 -0.30 -0.21 3.41 -0.09 1931-32 2.64 3.94 -1.30 -1.19 2.75 -0.11 1932-33 2.23 3.94 -1.71 -1.79 2.15 +0.08 1933-34 2.37 3.64 -1.27 -1.11 2.53 -0.16 1934-35 3.47 4.12 -0.65 -0.63 3.49 -0.02 1935-36 2.93 3.65 -0.72 -0.82 2.83 +0.10 1936-37 2.75 3.32 -0.57 -0.69* 2.63* +0.12* * Preliminary — subject to revision. Sources of data: Col. 1: From table 1, col..l. Col. 5: Col. 2 plus col. 4. Col. 2: Readings from diagonal curve in fig. 1A . Col. 3: Col. 1 minus col. 2. Col. 4: Readings from diagonal curve in fig. IB . TABLE 3 Pack, Carryover, Shipments, and Exports of California Canned Apricots 1926-27 to 1936-37 Carryover Carryover Year, June from • Available into through May Pack preceding for following bnipmenx.s KjXporx.s year shipment year 1 g •z A 4 c D D t aaa 1 , UUO T AAA 1,000 T AAA l ,uuu 1 AAA 1,UUU 1 AAA .L , UUU 1 AAA 1 , UUU cases* cases* cases* cases* cases* cases* 1926-27 3,227 21 3,248 401 2,847 809 1927-28 2,960 401 3,361 952 2,409 630 1928-29 1,991 952 2,943 154 2,789 594 1929-30 4,023 154 4,177 1,189 2,988 729 1930-31 1,954 1,189 3,143 546 2,597 414 1931-32 2,006 546 2,552 515 2,037 496 1932-33 1,805 515 2,320 323 1,997 476 1933-34 2,416 323 2,739 167 2,572 538 1934-35 1,774 167 1,941 227 1,714 237 1935-36 3,164 227 3,391 844 2,547 596 1936-37 2,899 844 3,743 228 3,515 525 f * No. 2 1/2 can basis. f Preliminary — subject to revision. Sources of data: Cols. 1, 2, and 4: Compiled by the Canners League of California. Col. 3: Col.' 1 plus col. 2. Col. 5: Col. 3 minus col. 4. Col. 6: Compiled from Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, converted at 45 pounds per case. TABLE 4 Construction of Index of Prices of Canned Fruits Competing with Canned Apricots, 1926-27 to 1936-37 Year Prices Relatives of pri CCS T nH p"v c&.'fiYiB& fruit nri ce s t- i -A. W W k> June through May Canned clingstone peaches Canned Bartlett pears Canned pineapples Canned clingstone peaches Canned Bartlett pears 1 2 3 4 5 c O 7 dollars dollars dollars 1924-29 1924-29 1924-29 per case per case per case = 100 = 100 - i no — xuu — A w W 1926-27 3.66 4.31 2.35 99 90 103 99 1927-28 3.17 4.60 2.10 86 96 92 90 1928-29 3.22 4.13 2.20 87 86 96 90 1929-30 4.08 4.82 2.35 111 101 103 106 1930-31 2.88 3.53 2.10 78 74 92 82 1931-32 2.55 2.82 1.50* 69 59 66 66 1932-33 1.97 2.48 1.60 53 52 70 59 1933-34 2.31 2.64 1.80 63 55 79 67 1934-35 2.69 3.05 1.80 73 64 79 74 1935-36 2.51 2.92 1.80 68 61 79 71 1936-37 2.66 2.94t 1.80 72 61 t 79 73 t * Opening price, $1.75; account taken of break in prices during season. T Preliminary estimate — subject to revision. Sources of data: Cols. 1 and 2: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are weighted average prices for all grades and sizes of cans, f .o.b. cannery. Canned clingstone peach prices are for California; canned Bartlett pear prices, for Pacific Coast. Col. 3: Opening prices for no. Z\ Sliced Fancy Pineapple, Hawaii, as given in Western Canner and Packer, 1937 Yearbook, p. 85. Table continued on next page. a ) i Table 4 continued. Cols. 4, 5, and 6: Prices given in cols. 1, 2, and 3 in per cent of their 1924-29 averages - d clingstone peaches, $3,687; canned Bartlett pears, $4,783; and canned pineapples $2.^92. Col. 7: Weighted combination of relatives in cols. 4, 5, and 6, using following weights: d clingstone peaches, 8; canned Bartlett pears, 3; and canned pineapples, 6- 3. TABLE 5 Shipments of Canned Peaches, Canned Pears, and Canned Pineapple, and Index of Urban Consumers ' Income Shipments Index Year Canned Canned Canned Total urban June through May peaches pears pineapple of three consumers 1 income 1 2 3 4 5 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 per cent cases cases cases cases 1926-27 10,727 3,378 7,465 21,570 LVL.d 1927-28 13,203 2,883 8,603 24,689 101.6 1928-29 12,963 3,998 7,876 24,837 105.8 1929-30 9,572 3,580 7,616 20,768 106.6 1930-31 11,020 4,216 8,994 24,230 94.1 1931-32 7,527 3,672 9,525 20,724 78.0 1932-33 9,922 3,532 6,270 19,724 61.8 1933-34 9,280 4,533 8,327 22,140 67.4 1934-35 9,132 4,518 8,446 22,096 71.7 1935-36 11,030 4,604 9,377 25,011 77.3 1936-37 11,186 88.0» » Preliminary -- subject to revision. Sources of data: Col. 1: Compiled by the Canners League of California and the Canning Peach Industry Board. Figures are for California only and include both clingstones and freestones on a no. Z\ can basis. Col. 2: Compiled by the Canners League of California and the North- west Canners Association. Figures are for Pacific Coast Bartlett pears on a no* Z\ can basis. Col. 3: Compiled from Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, June and December issues. Figures are shipments from Hawaii to the United States for July through June, and were converted at 55 pounds per case. Col. 4: Total of cols. 1, 2, and 3. Col. 5: Simple average of the monthly indices of national income, excluding agricultural income. Average 1924-29 = 100, compiled from the U. S. Dept. of Agr., Bur. of Agr. Econ., the Agricultural Situation, current issues. I -Ml