Wv \%\ 
 
 ^11 
 
 University of California 
 College of Agriculture 
 Agricultural Experiment Station 
 Berkeley, California 
 
 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE Sa'.SOMAL AVER'.GE F. 0. B. 
 PRICES OF CALIFORNIA WINTER .'KD SUl'i.ER ORj'j^GES, 1922-23 to 1939-40 
 
 \^ 
 
 H. R« Wellman and G. M. Kuznets 
 
 March, 1942 
 
 UNIVERSITV OF CALIFORNIA 
 
 LIBRARY 
 
 COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE 
 DAVIS 
 
 Contribution from the 
 Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics 
 Mimeographed Report No. 77 
 
STATISTICAL AIIALY3IS OF THE SEASONAL AVERAGE F. 0. B. 
 PRICES OF CALIFORNIA WHITER AITO SUIER ORANGES, 1922-25 to 1939-40 
 
 by 
 
 1/ 2/ 
 H. R. Wellman — ' and G. ?I. Kuznets — 
 
 The purpose of this report is to present the res^ults of an analysis of the 
 major factors which have influenced the seasonal average f.o.b. prices of Cali- 
 fornia winter and suniner oranges from 1922-23 through 1939-40. Winter oranges are 
 ^ those shipped during the six months November through April, which for California 
 consist mainly of VJashington navels. Summer oranges are those shipped during the 
 six months ilay through October. For California, summer oranges consist mainly of 
 Valencias. During the six months, May through October, California normally con- 
 tributes 80 to 90 per cent of the Ihited States shipments of oranges; during the 
 six months November through April shipments from California constitute only 
 45 to 55 per cent of United States shipments of oranges. 
 
 For each of the two classifications — winter oranges and summer oranges — 
 the average relationships which prevailed from 1922 to 23 through 1939-40 between 
 the seasonal average f.o.b. prices of California oranges and three factors were 
 measured. These factors are: (1) Lhited States supply of oranges, (2) non- 
 agricultural income payments, and (3) trend of demand for oranges. For the 
 eighteen-year period covered by the analysis these three factors account for 
 about 92 per cent of the variation in the f.o.b. prices of California winter 
 oranges and for about 93 per; cent of the variation in the f.o.b. prices of 
 California summer oranges. £./ 
 
 While the use of these variables results in a large reduction of the 
 variance of the dependent variable, it is not to be supposed that they are the 
 only ones that have affected the f.o.b. prices from 19*22-23 through 1939-40, or 
 that they are the only factors which will affect f.o.b. prices during the coming 
 years. Neither is it certain that the relationships between the seasonal average 
 f.o.b. prices of California oranges and the factors considered will be the same 
 in the future as they were, on the average, during the period covered by the 
 analysis. 
 
 i 
 
 The characteristics of deinand functions under two different h37potheses are 
 sumr^iariaed in table 2 for winter oranges and in table 6 for summer oranges. From 
 an a priori standpoint both formulations are legitimate hj'potheses concerning the 
 relation between price and the associated variables. The essential feature of 
 the first hypothesis (arithmetic form; is that the net regressions retain their 
 slope irrespective of their positions. Equations 1 and 2 of table 2 and equations 
 
 — ' Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economist in the Experi- 
 ment Station and Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. 
 
 2/ 
 
 — Instructor in Agricultural Economics, Junior Agricultural Economist in the 
 Experiment Station and Junior Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. 
 
 3/ 
 
 — See tables 2 and 6 for values of the adjusted coefficients of multiple 
 correlation. The values given above are the averages of their squares. 
 
2. 
 
 1 and 2 of table S give the results of applying this hypothesis to winter and 
 summer oranges respectively. The basic characteristic of the second hypothesis 
 (logarithmic form) is that the absolute amount of shift of a given net regression, 
 with a specified change in the other independent variables, is influenced by the 
 point on the net regression from which the change is measured. Equations 3 and 4 
 in table 2 and equations 3 and 4 in table 6 embody this hypothesis for winter and 
 summer oranges respectively. 
 
 In each formulation both price and quantity were used as dependent 
 variables. Shifts in the demand for oranges during the period \inder review have 
 been reflected both in changes in prices paid and in quantities taken. In general 
 those changes in demand from year to year that were occasioned by changes in the 
 incomes of consumers have appeared mainly in the form of price movements; whereas 
 the gradual change in the demand over the years that was caused by factors sub- 
 sumed under time has appeared mainly in the form of quantity movements. By 
 presenting statistical measurements of shifts in the demand for oranges in terms 
 of quantities taken as well as in terms of price, a more comprehensive picture 
 of the actual situation is obtained than by using either alone. 
 
 The results secured with these different treatments were found to be in 
 substantial agreement. All of the equations employed show the demand for winter 
 and summer oranges to be inelastic. The net relation of price and quantity to i/^' 
 come was foiind to be well approximated by a straight line for both winter and 
 summer oranges under both hypotheses. In all of the formulations considered in 
 connection with winter and summer oranges, introduction of curvilinearity into 
 the regression on time improved total fit. The results secured suggest that dur- 
 ing a large part of the period 1922-25 to 1939-40 the demand for winter and summer 
 oranges in this country relative to the buying power of consumers shifted upward 
 but at a diminishing rate. The peak in this upward shift of demand for winter 
 oranges was apparently reached between 1935 and 1938. Whether the demand for 
 winter and especially summer oranges relative to incomes of consumers during the 
 last part of the period rera:iined stationary or turned downward is not cleai'ly 
 revealed by the analysis. 
 
 The average relations between f.o.b. prices of v/inter oranges and each 
 of the three independent variables imder the first hypothesis are shown graphically 
 in figure 1. Expressed in numerical terms the relations indicated in panels A and 
 B of figure 1 are as follows: (a) With both the nonagricultural income payments 
 and the trend of demand held constant a change of one million boxes in the United 
 States supply of winter oranges was, on the average, accompanied by a change in 
 the opposite direction of 16 cents a box in the f.o.b. price of California winter 
 oranges; and (b) with both the IMited States supply of winter oranges and the 
 trend of demand held constant, a change of 10 points in the index of nonagricul- 
 tural income was, on the average, accompanied by a change in the same direction 
 of 48 cents a box in the f.o.b. price of California winter oranges. 
 
 Figure 2 presents similar information for summer oranges. Expressed in 
 numerical terms the relations portrayed in panels A and B are as follows : 
 (a) With both the nonagricultural income payments and the trend of demand held 
 constant, a cliange of one million boxes in the LMted States supply of summer 
 oranges was, on the average, accompanied by a change in the opposite direction 
 of 33 cents a box in the f.o.b. price of California summer oranges; and (b) with 
 both the liiited States supply of summer oranges and the trend of demand held con- 
 stant, a change of 10 points in the index of nonagricultural income was, on the 
 average accompanied by a change in the same direction of 49 cents a box in the 
 f.o.b. price of California summer oranges. 
 
3 
 
 TABLE 1 
 
 Seasonal Average F.O.B. Prices of California w'inter Oranges 
 and iTiportant Factors .'effecting Them, 1922-23 to 1939-40 
 
 Year 
 
 
 
 Index of non- 
 
 November 
 
 F.o»b. 
 
 United States 
 
 agricultural 
 
 through y.pril 
 
 pri ce 
 
 ;;upply 
 
 inc ome 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 
 vi U X J. ax £3 
 
 100 000 
 
 
 
 per box 
 
 boxes 
 
 100 
 
 1922-23 
 
 2 . 71 
 
 189 
 
 83 
 
 \JxJ 
 
 1923-24 
 
 
 
 Q? 
 
 1924-25 
 
 3.60 
 
 198 
 
 *? o 
 
 1925-26 
 
 3.50 
 
 206 
 
 100 
 
 192o-27 
 
 
 
 
 1927-28 
 
 4.39 
 
 
 
 1928-29 
 
 
 290 
 
 V/ W 
 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4 .45 
 
 
 
 1930-31 
 
 2.17 
 
 296 
 
 91 
 
 1931-32 
 
 1.80 
 
 274 
 
 75 
 
 1932-33 
 
 1.43 
 
 255 
 
 61 
 
 1933-34 
 
 l.o5 
 
 271 
 
 69 
 
 1934-35 
 
 1.80 
 
 314 
 
 74 
 
 1935-36 
 
 1.95 
 
 272 
 
 32 
 
 1936-37 
 
 2.53 
 
 2bl 
 
 93 
 
 1937-38 
 
 1.46 
 
 313 
 
 88 
 
 1938-39 
 
 1.38 
 
 360 
 
 90 
 
 1939-40 
 
 1.60 
 
 344 
 
 97 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Col.l: From the California Fruit Growers Exchang,e, Prices are 
 the weighted average prices per packed box received for oranges shipped 
 during the six months Noveraber through x^pril. Since November 1, 1929 
 Arizona oranges are included. Since May 1, 1930 prices include loose 
 fruit on a packed-box basis. Government purchases for relief distribut- 
 ion are not included. 
 
 Col. 2: From table 4, col. 7. 
 
 Col. 3: Simple average of the monthly indices of national 
 income, excluding, agricultural income, average 1924-1929 equals 100, 
 compiled from the United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of 
 Agricultural Economics, The Agricultural Situation, current issues. 
 
TABLE 2 
 
 Winter Oranges: Regression Coefficients and Auxiliary Constants, 
 Arithmetic and Logarithmic Forms, 1922-23 to 1939-40 
 (Figures in parentheses are standard errors) 
 
 Equation 
 
 Dependent 
 variable 
 
 Constant 
 term 
 
 Net regression coefficients* 
 
 Adjusted 
 coefficient 
 of multiple 
 correlation 
 R 
 
 Flexibility of 
 price 
 
 63 
 r 
 
 Elasticity of 
 demand 
 
 'I 
 
 «1 
 
 ^2 
 
 
 t; 
 
 
 .1 
 
 2 
 
 T 
 
 4- 
 
 5 
 
 6. 
 
 7 
 
 8 
 
 9 
 
 10 
 
 11 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 ^1 
 
 ^2 
 
 2.6660 
 189.3100 
 
 -45.4719 
 (7.6434) 
 
 -0.0161 
 (0.0027) 
 
 0.0480 
 (0.0059) 
 
 2.1941 
 (0.4781) 
 
 0.0243 
 (0.0134) 
 
 2.2406 
 (0.4993) 
 
 -0.0022 
 (0.0007) 
 
 -0.0862 
 (0.0450) 
 
 0.95ol 
 0.9543 
 
 -1.6953 
 (0.2827) 
 
 -0.4314 
 (0,0728) 
 
 Equation 
 
 Dependent 
 variable 
 
 Constant 
 term 
 
 Log Xj^ 
 
 Log Xg 
 
 Log X3 
 
 t 
 
 t2 
 
 R 
 
 
 
 3 
 4 
 
 Log 
 
 Log Xg 
 
 0 .9644 
 1.1209 
 
 -0.5208 
 (0.0847) 
 
 -1.4288 
 (0.2323) 
 
 1 
 
 1 
 
 1.4875 
 (0.1665) 
 
 0.7734 
 (0.1617) 
 
 0.0017 
 (0.0019) 
 
 0.0027 
 (0.0009) 
 
 -0.0005 
 (0.0001) 
 
 -0.00023 
 (0.00008) 
 
 0.9668 
 0.9550 
 
 -1.4288 
 (0.2323) 
 
 -0.5208 
 (0.0847) 
 
 X3_ Seasonal average f.o.b. price of California winter oranges (in dollars per box). 
 
 Xg United States supply of winter oranges (in units of 100,000 boxes), 
 
 X3 Index of nonagricultural income payments in the United States, November-April (1924-1929 = 100). 
 t Time in units of half-years (origin between 1930-31 and 1931-32)^ 
 
i 
 
 ; 
 
 ; 1 , 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 i 
 i 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 set''' 
 
Fig. 1. — Net Regression of F«O.B. Prices of California Vifinter oranges. 
 Arithmetic Form, 1922-23 to 1939-40 on: A, United States Supply 
 of Winter Oranges; B, Index of fiKonagri cultural Income 
 
 Payments; C, Time 
 
 Index of nonacrl cultural Incoiiie ! 
 
 ■, ' ■ i 
 
I 
 
 ] 
 
 I 
 
6. 
 
 TABLE 3 
 
 Actual and Estimated F.O.B. Prices of Cpliforria Winter Oran-i 
 Arithmetic Forn, 1922-23 to 1839-40 
 
 Year, Fovei^her 
 
 Actual 
 
 Estimated 
 
 Re t^i dnfl 1 
 
 throui^h April 
 
 price 
 
 price 
 
 col. 1 r.inv.s 
 
 
 
 
 col. 2 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 ~^ 
 
 3 
 
 1922-23 
 
 2, 71 
 
 2,57 
 
 0.14 
 
 1923-24 
 
 2.12 
 
 2.56 
 
 -0, 44 
 
 1924-25 
 
 5.60 
 
 3.26 
 
 0.34 
 
 1925-26 
 
 3. 50 
 
 3.62 
 
 -0.12 
 
 1926-27 
 
 3.4-5 
 
 3.49 
 
 -0.04 
 
 1927-28 
 
 4.59 
 
 4.10 
 
 0.29 
 
 1928-29 
 
 2.80 
 
 2.91 
 
 -0.11 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4.45 
 
 4.35 
 
 0.10 
 
 1930-31 
 
 2.17 
 
 2.25 
 
 -o.oe 
 
 1951-32 
 
 l.SO 
 
 1.88 
 
 -0.08 
 
 1932-33 
 
 1.4-3 
 
 1.55 
 
 -0.12 
 
 1933-34 
 
 1.65 
 
 1.69 
 
 -0.04 
 
 1934-55 
 
 i.no 
 
 1.23 
 
 0.57 
 
 1935-36 
 
 1.95 
 
 2.27 
 
 -0.32 
 
 1936-57 
 
 2.53 
 
 2.61 
 
 -0.08 
 
 1937-38 
 
 1.46 
 
 1.' J. 
 
 -0.35 
 
 1958-39 
 
 1.38 
 
 1.07 
 
 0.31 
 
 1939-40 
 
 1.60 
 
 1 !:;o 
 •!-.>- 
 
 0.02 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 I 
 
 Col. 1: From tahle 1, col. 1. 
 
 Ccl, 2: Based on equation 1, table 2, j 
 
7. 
 
 TABLE 4 
 
 United States Supply of V/inter Oranges, 1922-23 to 1939-40 
 
 Year 
 
 United States 
 
 Shi pments 
 
 Receipts 
 
 Total : 
 
 United 
 
 United States 
 
 November 
 
 Calif- 
 
 Other 
 
 Total : 
 
 from Rierto 
 
 col. 3 
 
 States 
 
 supply: col. 5 
 
 thr ough 
 
 ornia- 
 
 states 
 
 ool . 1 
 
 Rico and 
 
 plus cJol.4 
 
 exports 
 
 minus col. 6 
 
 April 
 
 Arizona 
 
 
 [jIus ool . 2 
 
 imports 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 7 
 
 
 Thousand boxes 
 
 1922-23 
 
 10,353 
 
 8,712 
 
 19,365 
 
 557 
 
 19,922 
 
 1,070 
 
 18,852 
 
 1923-24 
 
 12,546 
 
 11,452 
 
 23,998 
 
 171 
 
 24,169 
 
 1,402 
 
 22,767 
 
 1924-25 
 
 11,135 
 
 9,603 
 
 20,76& 
 
 2 65 
 
 21,033 
 
 1,194 
 
 19,839 
 
 1925-23 
 
 12,838 
 
 8,679 
 
 21,517 
 
 360 
 
 21,877 
 
 1,308 
 
 20,569 
 
 1926-27 
 
 15,107 
 
 9 ,215 
 
 24,322 
 
 252 
 
 24,574 
 
 1,656 
 
 22,918 
 
 1927-28 
 
 13,119 
 
 7,670 
 
 20,789 
 
 431 
 
 21,220 
 
 1,418 
 
 19,802 
 
 1928-29 
 
 L f fO OO 
 
 XO , DC 1 
 
 
 
 O i. f cc*± 
 
 ^ 1 Q7 
 
 c a g \jc f 
 
 1 929-30 
 
 12,542 
 
 8,861 
 
 21,403 
 
 219 
 
 21,622 
 
 1,306 
 
 20,316 
 
 1930-31 
 
 15,982 
 
 15,706 
 
 31,688 
 
 68 
 
 31,756 
 
 2,217 
 
 29,539 
 
 1931-32 
 
 16,216 
 
 12,522 
 
 28,738 
 
 29 
 
 28,767 
 
 1,376 
 
 27,391 
 
 1932-33 
 
 13,816 
 
 12,916 
 
 2^,732 
 
 31 
 
 26,763 
 
 1,223 
 
 25,540 
 
 1933-34 
 
 13,001 
 
 15,498 
 
 28,499 
 
 34 
 
 28,533 
 
 1,406 
 
 27,127 
 
 1934-35 
 
 18,713 
 
 14,177 
 
 32,890 
 
 36 
 
 32,926 
 
 1,588 
 
 31,338 
 
 1935-36 
 
 14,338 
 
 14,886 
 
 29,224 
 
 44 
 
 29,238 
 
 2,043 
 
 27,225 
 
 1936-37 
 
 11,740 
 
 17,809 
 
 29,549 
 
 24 
 
 29,573 
 
 1,494 
 
 28,079 
 
 1937-38 
 
 15,551 
 
 18,724 
 
 34,275 
 
 27 
 
 34,302 
 
 3,037 
 
 31,265 
 
 1936-39 
 
 15,035 
 
 25,243 
 
 40,278 
 
 30 
 
 40,308 
 
 4,321 
 
 35,987 
 
 1939-40 
 
 16,844 
 
 19 ,ood 
 
 36,710 
 
 24 
 
 3b, 734 
 
 2 ,363 
 
 34,371 
 
 Sources of data; 
 
 Col. 1: The figures pertain to both packed and loose fruit. For the 
 years 1922-23 throuj^h 1933-34 estimates of the industry packed fruit shipments 
 were based upon the ratio of the California Fruit Growers Exchange rail shipments 
 to total industry rail shipmer-ts applier to the California Fruit Grov/ers Exchange 
 packed orange shipments. Estimates of the industry loose orant.e shipments were 
 based upon the ratio of the loose fruit sales by local associations affiliated v/ith 
 the California Fruit Grov/ers 'exchange to theit* packed fruit sales applied to the 
 industry pa 'ked fruit shipments. 
 
 Years 1934-35 through 1939-40: From sumiT:aries of xveekly shipments of 
 oranges reported by the Cal if orn ia-i.riz; na Orai^ge and Grapefruit ;.gency. Shipments 
 for weeks which fell in two months were prorated between the months on the basis 
 of daily shipments of California oranges by rail and boat as reported h\' the United 
 States Department of Agriculture, Market Nexvs Service. Government purcnases for 
 relief distribution are net included. 
 
 Col. 2: From Division of fruits and Ve5etables, Surplus i^arKetinj^ Admin- 
 istration, United States Department of Agriculture. j 
 
 Cols. 4 and 6; United States DepartnB.it of Commerce, Bureau of Foreign 
 and Domestic Commerce, Division of foreign Trade Statistics. 
 
TABLE 5 
 
 Seasonal Average F.O.B. Prices of California Summer Oranges 
 and Important Factors Affecting tnem, 1923 to 1940. 
 
 
 
 
 Index of non— 
 
 
 r #0 •b • 
 
 uniuQu o osoes 
 
 a j/^r i c ult ur a 1 
 
 "t" r\ n ft 
 
 pr ice 
 
 supply 
 
 1 nc o:ne 
 
 
 X 
 
 o 
 c 
 
 3 
 
 
 dollars 
 
 100,000 
 
 1924-1929 = 
 
 
 per box 
 
 boxes 
 
 100 
 
 1923 
 
 2 .73 
 
 105 
 
 88 
 
 1924 
 
 3.12 
 
 lo2 
 
 69 
 
 1925 
 
 5.26 
 
 69 
 
 97 
 
 1926 
 
 3.59 
 
 105 
 
 100 
 
 1927 
 
 4.11 
 
 119 
 
 102 
 
 1928 
 
 5 .74 
 
 93 
 
 105 
 
 1929 
 
 2.69 
 
 181 
 
 108 
 
 1930 
 
 5.87 
 
 96 
 
 98 
 
 1931 
 
 2.27 
 
 160 
 
 84 
 
 1932 
 
 1.82 
 
 156 
 
 65 
 
 1933 
 
 1.78 
 
 170 
 
 53 
 
 1934 
 
 2 .73 
 
 155 
 
 71 
 
 1935 
 
 2.01 
 
 176 
 
 77 
 
 1936 
 
 2.61 
 
 178 
 
 88 
 
 1937 
 
 3.64 
 
 138 
 
 96 
 
 1938 
 
 1.57 
 
 218 
 
 87 
 
 1939 
 
 1.78 
 
 220 
 
 94 
 
 1940 
 
 1.89 
 
 228 
 
 100 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Col. 1: From the California Fruit Growers Exchan^,©. Prices 
 are the v/eighted aTeraj.-,e prices per packed box received for oranges 
 shipped durin; the six months kay through October. Since ITay 1, 1930, 
 i.rizona oranges are included and prices include loose fruit on a 
 packed-box basis. Government purchases for relief distribution are not 
 included. 
 
 Col. 2: From table 8, col. 7. 
 
 Col. 3: Si:Tiple average of the m^onthly indices of national 
 income, excluding agricultural income, average 1924-1929 equals 100, 
 ccmpiled from the United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of 
 jigricultural Economics, T;he xigricultural Situation, current issues. 
 
S' " 
 
TABLE 6 
 
 Summer Oranges: Regression Coefficients and Auxiliary Constants, 
 Arithmetic and Logarithmic Forms, 1923 to 1940 
 
 (Figures in parentheses are standard errors) 
 
 Equation 
 
 Dependent 
 
 Constant 
 
 Net regression coefficients* 
 
 Adjusted 
 
 Flexibility of 
 
 Elasticity 
 
 variable 
 
 term 
 
 
 X2 
 
 X3 
 
 t 
 
 t2 
 
 coef f 3 cient 
 
 of multiple 
 correlation 
 R 
 
 price 
 
 of demand 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 7 
 
 8 
 
 9 
 
 10 
 
 11 
 
 1 
 
 ^1 
 
 3,9006 
 
 
 -0.0333 
 (0.0040) 
 
 0.0491 
 
 (0.0081) 
 
 0.0709 
 (0.0175) 
 
 -0.0027 
 (O.OOll) 
 
 0.9567 
 
 -1.6118 
 (0.1996) 
 
 
 2 
 
 Xp 
 
 .25.1630 
 
 -25.3088 
 (3.0195) 
 
 
 1.1954 
 (0.2832) 
 
 2.3737 
 (0.3037) 
 
 -0.0586 
 
 (0.0320) 
 
 0.9728 
 
 
 -0.5235 
 
 \ U •UdoI ) 
 
 Equation 
 
 Dependent 
 variable 
 
 Constant 
 term 
 
 Log Xl 
 
 Log Xg 
 
 Log Xj 
 
 t 
 
 t2 
 
 R 
 
 If 
 
 
 3 
 
 Log Xi 
 
 .9017 
 
 
 -1.2488 
 (0.1265) 
 
 1 .1742 
 (0.1662) 
 
 0.0059 
 (0.0017) 
 
 -0.0005 
 (0.0001 ) 
 
 0.9731 
 
 -1.2488 
 (0.1265) 
 
 
 4 
 
 Log Xg 
 
 .9563 
 
 -0.7065 
 (0.0716) 
 
 
 0.7949 
 (0.1644) 
 
 0.0055 
 (0.0009) 
 
 -0.0004 
 (O.OOOl) 
 
 0.9771 
 
 
 -0.7065 
 (0.0716) 
 
 
 X-|_ Seasonal average f.o.b. 
 
 price of California 
 
 Summer Oranges (in dollars per box). 
 
 
 Xg United States supply of summer oranges (in units of 100,000 boxes). 
 
 Xj Index of nonagriculturai income payments in the United States, May-October (1924-1929 = lOO). 
 t Time in units of half-years (origin between 1931 and 1932). 
 
t 
 
 1 
 
 i 
 
 1 
 
 i 
 
 1 
 
 i 
 
 j 
 
 1 
 
 ! 
 1 
 
 
 
 ■ 
 
 
 * . ■ 
 
 ■ ■ r 
 
 - - 
 
 ■ ■ • . . 
 
 
 :; M 
 
 ;;.'0'-:.: 
 
 - 
 
 ; 
 
 
 
 -. . . ; . ■.. ■: 
 
 
 
 ; 
 
 
 i 
 
 
 
 
 
 • > ■ - . 
 
 ■ ■ 
 
 ; 
 
 -.--.-i 
 
 L. . 
 
 
 -.--1 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 i 
 
 4 
 
10. 
 
 Fig. 2,— Net Regression of F.C.B. Prices of California Summer Oranges, 
 Arithmetic Form, 1923 to 1940 on: A, United States Supply of 
 Summer Oranges; B, Index of Hoiiiagricultural Income 
 Payments; C, Time. 
 
 o 
 
 CD 
 cti 
 
 O 
 
 04 
 O 
 
 6.40 r 
 
 5.60 
 
 ^ 4.80 
 
 4.00 - 
 
 3.20 - 
 
 " 2,40 
 a. 
 
 1.60 
 
 .80 
 
 .00 
 
 10 15 20 
 
 U.S. Supply - Millions of Boxes 
 
 25 
 
 4.20 
 
 X 
 
 o 
 
 £> 
 
 O) 
 
 n. 
 m 
 nJ 
 
 o 
 ■a 
 
 O 
 •H 
 
 u 
 
 a, 
 
 o 
 
 g 3.80 - 
 
 ^ 3,40 
 
 60 70 
 
 90 100 110 
 
 1,00 
 
 _l 1 I i , I I I I L. 
 
 ' I I I L. 
 
 Index of 
 Nonagri cultural Income 
 
 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 
 Year 
 
TABLE 7 
 
 Actual and Estimated F.C.B. Prices of California Svtmmer 
 Oran--es, Arithmetic Form, 1925 to 1940 
 
 Year, May 
 
 i Actual 
 
 ! Estimated 
 
 He si duals 
 
 throuf;;h October 
 
 price 
 
 price 
 
 col. 1 
 
 
 
 
 minus col. 2 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 1923 
 
 2.73 
 
 2.74 
 
 -O.OJ 
 
 1924- 
 
 3.12 
 
 3.21 
 
 -0.09 
 
 1925 
 
 5.26 
 
 4.99 
 
 0.27 
 
 1926 
 
 
 4.21 
 
 -0.62 
 
 1927 
 
 4. 11 
 
 4.09 
 
 0.02 
 
 1928 
 
 5.74 
 
 5.33 
 
 0.41 
 
 1929 
 
 
 2.75 
 
 -0.06 
 
 1930 
 
 5.87 
 
 5.28 
 
 0, 59 
 
 1931 
 
 2.27 
 
 2.62 
 
 -0.35 
 
 1932 
 
 1.82 
 
 1.96 
 
 -0.14 
 
 1933 
 
 1.73 
 
 1.52 
 
 0.26 
 
 1934 
 
 2.73 
 
 2.-1 
 
 0.22 
 
 1935 
 
 2.01 
 
 2.18 
 
 -0.17 
 
 1936 
 
 2.61 
 
 2.71 
 
 -0 10 
 
 1937 
 
 3.64 
 
 4.47 
 
 -0.83 
 
 1938 
 
 1.57 
 
 1.37 
 
 0.20 
 
 1939 
 
 1.78 
 
 1.64 
 
 0.14 
 
 1940 
 
 1.89 
 
 1.64 
 
 0.25 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Cel. 1: From table 5, col. 1. 
 
 Col. 2: Based on equation 1, table 6. 
 
12. 
 
 TABLE 8 
 
 United States Supply of Summer Oranges, 1923 to 1940 
 
 Year 
 
 Unite c 
 
 States 
 
 shipments 
 
 Receipts 
 
 Total: 
 
 United 
 
 
 United 
 
 . ay throu^ 
 
 C a li f- 
 
 Other 
 
 Total: 
 
 from Puerto 
 
 col . 3 
 
 States 
 
 
 states 
 
 October 
 
 ornia- 
 
 states 
 
 doi. 1 
 
 Rico and 
 
 plus col . 4 
 
 exports 
 
 
 supply: 
 
 
 Arizona 
 
 
 plus ^ 
 
 imports 
 
 
 
 
 col. 5 minus 
 
 
 
 
 00 1. 2 
 
 
 
 
 
 col. 6 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 
 7 
 
 
 Thousand boxes 
 
 
 
 10,376 
 
 1,143 
 
 11,519 
 
 89 
 
 11, 608 
 
 1,057 
 
 
 
 1924 
 
 10,316 
 
 1,018 
 
 11,334 
 
 91 
 
 11,425 
 
 1, 218 
 
 
 10,207 
 
 1925 
 
 6,969 
 
 572 
 
 7,541 
 
 117 
 
 7, 658 
 
 784 
 
 
 6,874 
 
 1923 
 
 11,272 
 
 494 
 
 11,766 
 
 69 
 
 11,835 
 
 1,335 
 
 
 10,500 
 
 1927 
 
 12,815 
 
 863 
 
 13,678 
 
 124 
 
 13,802 
 
 1,956 
 
 
 11,346 
 
 
 9,729 
 
 644 
 
 10,373 
 
 28 
 
 lu,401 
 
 1,124 
 
 
 
 1929 
 
 19,681 
 
 1,762 
 
 21,443 
 
 16 
 
 21,459 
 
 3,385 
 
 
 16,074 
 
 1930 
 
 9,455 
 
 938 
 
 10,393 
 
 61 
 
 10,454 
 
 883 
 
 
 9,571 
 
 1931 
 
 16,646 
 
 2,083 
 
 18,729 
 
 14 
 
 18,743 
 
 2,719 
 
 
 16,024 
 
 1932 
 
 16,435 
 
 1,046 
 
 17,481 
 
 3 
 
 17,484 
 
 1,826 
 
 
 15,658 
 
 1933 
 
 16,245 
 
 2,877 
 
 19,122 
 
 2 
 
 19,124 
 
 2,171 
 
 
 16,953 
 
 
 15,426 
 
 1,922 
 
 17,348 
 
 6 
 
 17,354 
 
 1,890 
 
 
 ±U 
 
 1935 
 
 19,661 
 
 1,776 
 
 21,457 
 
 2 
 
 21,459 
 
 3,338 
 
 
 17,621 
 
 193o 
 
 17,523 
 
 2,413 
 
 19,936 
 
 19 
 
 19,955 
 
 2,167 
 
 
 17,788 
 
 1937 
 
 11,063 
 
 3,778 
 
 14,841 
 
 2 
 
 14,843 
 
 994 
 
 
 13,849 
 
 1928 
 
 21,765 
 
 4,620 
 
 26,335 
 
 1 
 
 26,386 
 
 4,561 
 
 
 21,825 
 
 1939 
 
 17,133 
 
 7,025 
 
 24,158 
 
 
 24,158 
 
 2,150 
 
 
 22,008 
 
 1940 
 
 22,392 
 
 1,880 
 
 24,272 
 
 
 24,272 
 
 1,465 
 
 
 22,807 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Col. 1: The figures pertain to both packed and loose fruit. For the years 
 1923 throu^^h 1933 estimates of the industry packed fruit shipments were based upon 
 the ratio of the California Fruit Growers Exchange rail shipments to total industry 
 rail shipments applied to the California Fruit Growers Exchange packed orange 
 shipments. Estimates of the industry loose orange shipments were based upon the 
 ratio of the loose fruit sales by local associations affiliated mth the California 
 Fruit Growers Exchange to their packed fruit sales applied to the industry packed 
 fruit shipments. 
 
 Years 1934 through 1940: r'rom summaries of v/eekly shipments of oranges 
 reported by the Calif ornia-.-.riaona Orange and Grapefruit Agency. Shipments for 
 weeks which fell in tavo months were prorated between the months on the basis of 
 daily shipments of California oranges by rail and boat as reported by the United 
 States Department of Agriculture, Market F.ews Service. Government purchases for 
 relief distribution are not included. 
 
 Col. 2: From Division of Fruits and Vegetables, Surplus Marketing 
 Administration, United States Department of Agriculture . 
 
 Cols. 4 and 6: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and 
 Domestic Commerce, Division of Foreign Trade Statistics. 
 

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