y <9AHV mm* %H3A ^HIBI tyw I i iff 3 i a Ad ? i a A N EXAMINATION o F Dr. P R I C E's ESSAY ON THE POPULATION of ENGLAND and WALES; AND THE DOCTRINE OF AN INCREASED POPULATION IN THIS KINGDOM, ESTABLISHED BY FACTS. By the Rev. JOHN HOWLETT, A. B. TO WHICH IS ADDED AN Containing Remarks on Dr. PRICE'S Argument of a decreafed Population deduced from the decreafed Produce of the hereditary and temporary Excife. MAIDSTONE: PRINTED TOR THE AUTHOR BY J. BLAKE; AND SOLD BY T. PAYNE AND SON, MEWS-GATE, LONDON. Stack Annex CONTENTS. INTRODUCTION Page ix Plan or Diftribution into 3 Parts i PART I. Examination into the Caufcs afligned by Dr. PR ici for the Depopulation of this Kingdom z Increafe of our Army and Navy 3 A devouring Capital too large for the Body that fupports it 4 The three long and dcjlruttive Wars in -which we have been involved Jince the Revolution 13 Migrations to our Settlements abroad 15 EngroJJing of Farms 23 Enclofure of Commons, &c. 29 High Price of Provijions, &c. 35 Increafing Luxury 36 A 2 PART iv CONTENTS. PART II. Page Examination of the Proof s adduced by Dr. PRICE to eflablijh the Fad of a decreafed Population 4 1 The Proof sjlated ib. Sufpicious Foundation of two of them ib. Statement of the Dottors Reafoning from the Sur- vivors Returns - A? Dijlmttion between Families and Houjes 46 Infu/iciency of the Dottors Table for ascertaining their Proportion 47 A proper one for that Purpofe 50 Sufpicious Appearance of the Surveyors Returns 52 Returns of Cottages uncertain c 3 The Dolor's Reafoning upon it 54 The true Nature of the Returns Jlated 56 Table Jliewing their Deficiency 50 Gradual Decreafe - . 6 Neither any Proof of Depopulation 61 Examination of Doctor PRICE'S Argument for Depopulation deduced from the decreafed Num- ber of Burials in the London Bills of Mortality. 63 The Supposition of their Decreafe not founded in Fail __ 64 Fallacy of the Arguments from the new Parifhes, and thefuppofed Decreafe of ' Dijj r enters 65-7 The Argument deduced from the dccreafed annual Produce of the Excife 71 Contrary CONTENTS. v Page Contrary Conclufions to be deduced even from the DJ^^'S o:^n Statement of it 72 Its Imperfect: om evinced 73 Diminution of the Number of Victuallers 77 Tlie Eafe with which K. WILLIAM raife d Trcops ib. PART III. Proofs of increafed and increajing Population 80 Regi/ler evidence applied to afcertain the relative Population of London 83 Deficiencies of the Bills of Mortality 84 The fcveral Kinds of Burials not in them 84-93 The total Amount of the London Burials both in and out of the Bills 93 Regi/lers of the neighbouring Villages 96 Of Kent 98 EJJex 102 Suffix - 1 105 Surrey 106 Hants, Wilts, Dorfet, Devon, and Corn-wall 108-9 Suffolk. no Norfolk. - 114 Middlefex, Northampton, Huntingdon, Cambridge Hertford, Leicejler, Stafford, Salop, Berks, Bucks, Derby and Oxford 117-20 Parifhes in Wales 121 The Northern Counties of York, Lancajler, Cum- berland, and Che/ler 122-4 Regijler Returns for the Diocefe of Chejler 1 25-6 CoUeSivc vi CONTENTS. Page Colkftiw View of the Regijler Evidence 128 Incrcafe of Population during the la/I 20 Years 130 Comparative View of the Advance of Population in England and France 104 Prefcnt amount of our Population computed 137 From the returns of Houfes at the Tax-Office 138 Table of Returns - 109 Ditto of Perfom to a Houfe. 144. Number of Inhabitants computed from the Militia 147 Condujion. Sr Some little improprieties in the arrangement of Chapters and Scftions, rendered it inconvenient to make any other references than to the parts and pages ; which, as it can occafion no difficulty to the reader, it is hoped will b j Y/*nl*/3 excufed. PREFACE PREFACE. WHEN two thirds of the materials for the following fheets were col- lected, and more than half the work alu- ally written, Mr. WALES'S Enquiry into the Population of England and Wales fell into my hands. That ingenious performance I have read with pleafure, and it has af- forded me, in fome particulars, no incon- fiderable afliftance. It does by no means however, (as the author himfelf feems to acknowledge;) preclude all further profe- cution of the fubjecl:. And it is a fortunate circumftance, that, as far as we have adopt- ed the fame mode of investigation, our re- fearches have been dire&ed to different quarters. By thefe means we are furnifhed with an accumulation of evidence for the fame purpofe ; and the near coincidence in the refult of our enquiries gives additional weight to the general argument, and mu- tual confirmation to each other's conclu- fions. At At the fame time, I may be allowed to obferve, that the plan I have adopted is more comprehenfive than that of Mr. WALES ; both becaufe I have entered more largely into an examination of Dr. PRICE'S fyftem, and have not contented myfelf with tracing merely the progrefs of population, but have- alfo endeavoured to afcertain its prefent aclual amount. ERRATA. P. 42, line laft, for 1,319,000 read 1,319215. 50 1. 9. column 5. r. i to 1.189. 52 1.5, for 986481, r. 986482. 60 1. 8, for of r. or. 70 1. 20, for 10 r. 20. 86 1. 2, dele dunng i 77 years only 1 1. 87 1. 13 and 14, exchange 285 for 365 and vice verfa. 97 for the total 24782-29662-41183-66286, 1. 12, r. 41183 !o 24782. 100 for the total, 1. 18, r. 34594-346*0-45712.43338, 115 1. laft dele three. 1 16 1. 20, for 1 1000 r. 1 100. 123 for the total r. 20400-19583-47869-37089. * 131 1, 9, for refpett r. rcfpctts. *25 1. 9, after Burgundy r. Provence &c. addenda p. 2, dele i, 2, 3, 4. * N. B. There are alfo (light errors in fome of the totals of other counties ; but as they are too inconfiderable materi- ally to affect the general conclufions, and as they are befides all duly corrected as a foundation for the collective view of the regiftcr evidence, p. 128, it is needlefs to point them out. APPENDIX. for Examination of, r. Remarks on. p. 6, 1. 23. overjlrong beer r. barrclt of. INTRODUCTION. IT has often been afierted, and not uncommonly aflented to, that the ftrength of a nation is proportionate to the number of its inhabitants; but this can be no further true than while every other circumflance remains precifely the fame. Great-Britain and Ireland, which at mod contain not above twelve or fourteen millions, were yet, in the laft glorious war, more than a match for the combined powers of France and Spain, which have at leaft three times that number. Nay, what is greater and more extraordinary ftill, we feem at this very day to maintain our ground with firm- nefs againft the united force of thefe perfidious enemies, aided by the unnatural alliance of our revolted colonies, and our mercenary neighbours the Dutch. But whatever may be the advantages that thus amply compenfate for our great inferiority in point of numbers; whether they arife from our infular fituation, our peculiar form of Government, or that high fpirit of liberty fo alive and vigorous in Englifh breads; it is ftill certain, that in given circumftances, our national confequence muft be ever in exaft proportion to the number of our people. It is, therefore, in a political view, a matter of effential importance, that thefe do not decreafe X INTRODUCTION. decreafe. And it muft afford very high fatisfac- tion to every one who is really attached to the wel- fare of his country, or who wifhes it to preferve its authority amidft the various powerful ftates of Europe, to find that general appearances, in al- moft every part of the kingdom, for 50 or 100 years paft, afford the ftrongeft prefumption that an increafing population muft have been gradually taking place. Our commerce, during this period, has been extending itfelf into every quarter of the globe; our manufactures have been multiplying and improving to an aftonifhing degree; our agri- culture has been daily receiving additional extent and additional perfection; dreary marfhes and barren waftes have been gradually transformed into rich paftures, meadows, and cornfields; fmall hamlets have grown into confiderable villages, and villages have fwelled into large and populous towns. Nor have we, mean time, fuffered thofe public calamities, which, in former ages, fre- quently fpread fuch dreadful devaftation among the human fpecies. Neither famine nor peftilence have repeated, in the prefent century, their peri- odical vifits, which heretofore ufed to fweep fuch multitudes to the grave, and defolate both town and country. While, on the other hand, the arts of medicine and furgery have made no inconfidcr- ablc advances; and almoft every diforder has been fo much more fkilfully treated than amongft our anceftors, as at once to alleviate the miferies of life, and INTRODUCTION. xi and not uncommonly prolong its duration. Duly confidering all thefe favourable circumftances, men of plain common underftandings, would natu- rally conclude that our population muft be greatly increafed; and that notwithftanding the little tem- porary interruptions it may from time to time have received, it muft, upon the whole, during the prefent century, have been a growing and progreffive quantity. But thefe obvious deductions of unbiaffed minds, we have been told, by a writer of acknowledged talents, are mere popular deceptions, and vulgar errors. We have not only heard of the deferted village and the depopulated country in the fictions of poetry; but have been repeatedly afTured, by an able calculator, the Reverend Dr. PRICE, that it is a* clear and indubitable fact that the number of our inhabitants has long been decreafing; that they are now near a quarter lefs than ihey were at the revolution; that for the laft twenty years, in particular, this decline has been uncommonly ra- pid, nnd that the caufes thereof ftill continue to operate with additional force. This aflertion, coming from fuch a quarter, was, it muft be acknowledgedj truly alarming, and produced in my mind many a difma! appre- henfion. I could not but think if this was really He * Eflay on the population of England an:} Wal~s. 7vge , 23, 85; and Supplement to revedionaiy payments, 2d j page 362, &c xii INTRODUCTION. the cafe, and matters continued to go on in this accelerated courfe to deftru&ion, that Great-Bri- tain, fo long the admiration and envy of the world, muft very foon dwindle into perfect infignificance; and, in 50 or 60 years, muft become an uninha- bited ifland, or a mere defolate wafte. Reflecting, however, that in matters level to common under- ftandings the moft ingenious theorifts have fome- times been miftaken, I could not help flattering myfelf that the prefent might be an inftance of that kind, and therefore determined not to give way to the melancholy impreflions, which the peru- fal of his book had made upon my mind, but to enquire a little more minutely into the fubject it- felf. The refult of my enquiries is a ftrong per- fuafion that the real fact is directly contrary to the Doctor's affertion; that our population, fo far from rapidly declining, has long been greatly advancing, and more efpecially for 20 or 30 years paft. What the evidence and the reafons are which have induced me fo totally to differ from a writer of fuch diftinguifhed eminence, I venture, with refpeclful deference, to lay before the public; who will judge of their ftrength or weaknefs with impartiality and candour, and from whofe deci- fion, whether for or againft me, I fhali have ^no inclination to appeal. AN A N EXAMINATION O F Dr. PRICE'S Effay on the Population of Plan or Dijlribution of the SubjeEl. THAT I may not bewilder, either myfelf, or my readers, on a fubjeft of fuch vaft extent and variety, I propofe to obferve the fol- lowing method. I (hall firft examine into the principal caufes afligned by Dr. PRICE for the depopulation of this country; next confider the pofitive proofs adduced to eftablifh the fal of a great and gradual decreafe of our people; and then fubmit to the reader, what appears to me, the real truth of the cafe, according to the beft in- formation I have been able to obtain. B PART PART I; Examination into the Caufes qjfigned by Dr. PRICE for the Depopulation oj this Kingdom. WITH regard to the firft point, the caufes of depopulation affigned by the Do&or, they fprm a long and formidable lift, and are as follows, '* the increafe of our army and navy, and " the conftant fupply of men neceflary to keep " them up; a devouring capital, too large for " the body that fupports it; the three long and " definitive continental wars in which \vc have " been involved during the prcfent century; the " migrations to our fettlements abroad, and, parti- " cularly, to the Eaft and Weft Indies, the en- " groffing of farms; the inclofing of commons and ' : wafte grounds; the high price of provifions: " but above all, the increafe of luxury and of our " public taxes and debts." A (light examination of thefe particulars will, I prefume, be fufEcient to make it probable, at leaft, that moft of them are far from being univrr- fally deftruQive of population, and that fome of them are not unfrequently, to certain degrees, and in certain fituations, aQually Conducive to it. SECT ( 3 ) SECT. I. Increafe of our Army and Navy. WITH refpea to the firft, t: the increafe of our army and navy," what has it -been ow- ing to ? Has it not been occafioned by the amazing increafe of our commerce, which has required a greater number of hands, both to de- fend and proteft it ? If the one has tended to diminifh our people, the other has, perhaps, more than equally tended to augment them. Nay it is far from certain, that a large (landing army and a numerous fhipping, even in themfelves confidered, and during a time of peace, the only time at pre- fent in view, are greatly, if at all, injurious to population. Our foldiers and failors do not, per- haps, fo generally marry, as perfons of other oc- cupations, and. therefore, may not be fuppofed to give fo many fubjecls to the ftate as they otherwife might. But if they do not marry themfelves, they are remotely the caufe of marriage in others. They give conftant employment, of courfe con- ftant fupport and maintenance, to thoufands and tens of thoufands, who, but for that refource, would be idle or ftarved. It is, I believe, no extravagant fuppofition that nearly fifty thou- fand perfons arc fed and clothed from our dock yards alone; and I make no doubt but that twice that number are amply provided for in mak- ing and preparing the many requifites for our army and navy. B 2 But i 4 ) But if our naval and military force have greatly increafed; have not thofe of our neighbours done the fame ? Has not the navy of Ruffia, in parti- cular, and I might almoil fay its army, received, as it were, its very exiftence during the prefent century? Has this depopulated that empire? On the contrary, while it has given birth to commerce, arts, and fcienccs, to fplendor and opulence, has it not likewife prodigioufly multiplied its inha- bitants, and given them a diftinguifhed place among the powers of Europe ? Unfortunate it is if a Gmilar caufe has produced fo different an effect in Great-Britain! As I do not intend, how- ever, a minute difcuflion of this topic, I purfue it no further, but proceed to the next affigned caufe of depopulation, a devouring capital, too large for Hit body that fufiports it. SECT. II. devouring Capital, too large for the Body that fupports it. i Cannot help previoufly remarking that our author fcems here to have fallen into an ob- vious inconfiilency. After having very flre- nuoufly ( 5 ) imotifly laboured to prove that our metropolis, like the reft of the kingdom, has greatly decreafed fince the revolution, he afligns, as a ftill incrcafing caufe of depopulation, an over-grown capital - that is to fay, a. growing caufe of a diminution of people, which caufe, in his own opinion, is every day becoming lefs and lefs. This looks fo very like a contradiction, that I am ftrongly tempted to call it fo. Left, however, the apparent incon- fiftency fhould be really no where but in my own mifapprehenfion, I will (lightly confider what we are to underftand by a devouring capital; and, fup- pofing it aftually to exiil, what are the natural confequences of it. When the Doclor aflerts then, that our capital is too large for the body that fupports it, does he not mean that it contains fo many inhabitants, that the reft of the kingdom cannot conveniently fupply them with the neceffary accommodations of life? Now if this be really the cafe, I apprehend that this difproportioned animal, (to refume the Doctor's metaphor) would vigoroufly beftir its hands and feet, and other members, fmall as they are fuppofed to be, in order to feed its prodigious head; well knowing that every morfel which en- tered its mouth would in return diftribute nourifh- ment to the whole body, by which it would thrive and grow till it rofe to a proper ftature, and became perfcft, full fized, and well proportioned. In plain B 3 terms, ( 6 } terms fhould the city of London to-morrow dou- ble its number of inhabitants, we mould foon find lhat the country like wife on every fide, for 50 miles round, would receive a proportionable aug- mentation. The farmer would have double in- citement to cultivate and improve his grounds; his produces in corn and cattle would every day incrcafe; the tradefman, the manufacturer, the mechanic, would fliare in the general advantage; great additional numbers, mean time, would be conftantly employed in carrying the fruits and riches of the country to the newly augmented metropolis, and in preferving a continual inter- courfe between them. All around neat and ele- gant country houfes would be taking pofieflion of every pleafant hill or vale; and gay villages would be rifing on every fide, which would foon become rich and populous. That this is not mere fpecu- lation or fancy, the amazing growth of the towns of Liverpool, Manchefter, and Birmingham, with- in thefe 60 years paft, and the correfpondent in- creafc, in populoufnefs, beauty, and magnificence, of the towns, villages, and houfes in their refpec- tive neighbourhoods, are ftrong prefumptive evi- dence. But fuppofing the event fhould be otherwife, and that the utmoft exertion of the adjacent coun- try fhould be inefficient to furnifh the ncccfTary Applies for this immenfe capital ; what would be the ( 7 ) the confequence? Why it would gradually dwin- dle till it fhrunk to a fize exa&ly adequate to its foreign fupports. And this indeed fuggefls the true criterion by which to judge, with certainty, when a capital is overgrown and when not. If the manufactures, the trade, the commerce, the agriculture of a country can readily furnilh it with every requifne fupply, it is not too large ; if the con- trary be the cafe, it undoubtedly is. Hence what is too great a capital in one country, is not fo in ano- ther. This depends on local and incidental circum- fiances; the extent of its commerce, the wealth and freedom of its people ; the variety of its manufac- tures; the luxuriance of its foil and ftate of its cultivation. Thus while England, for inftance, maintains its naval fuperiority, and the river Thames runs through the city of London fending the merchandize of our country round the globe, and bringing back the riches of every quarter of the world, it might, perhaps, increafe its numbers to even two millions, not only without detriment to the reft of the kingdom, but even, as above ftated, to its advantage. Whereas Paris, on the contrary, {landing as it does on a muddy ditch, called the Seine, which is navigated only by a few paltry boats; and the inhabitants of France remaining all the while in a kind of fplendid vaffalage; half that number may be too great and highly injurious to the general welfare of the people. B 4 Great 8 Great towns, indeed, in themfelves confidered, and without relation to their influence on the country around them, are very generally, in fome refpefts. prejudicial to population. Where large numbers are collected together, the air naturally becomes more foul and unwholefome; men are more ftrongly incited to irregular con- duel; to luxury, intemperance, and vice. All thefe are at once obftruclions to marriage, and tend to morten the lives of individuals. But the former of thefe evils, may to a confiderable degree, be avoided; while the latter is neceffarily reftrain- ed within certain limitations. The circumftance of unhcalthinefs may be almoft intirciy obviated, partly by choice of fituation; partly by making the ftreets wide and ftrait, and the houfcs large, fpa- cious, and airy. And as to the matter of irregu- larity of conduct, it will generally take place after a town is increafcd to a certain degree, and -will make but little further progrefs, though its in- habitants arc greatly multiplied. Divide the city of London into a dozen parts, and remove them into fo many different quarters of the kingdom, and you will find, I believe, thefe feparate portions juft as virtuous as they are now in the aggregate; jufl as temperate and innocent, perhaps, as are the people of Briilol, Birmingham, Liverpool, and Manchefler. Dr. PRICE obferves, thU great c: towns do more towards ( 9 ) " towards obftru&ing the increafe of mankind, than " all plagues, famines, and wars; and that he has " often thought, with pity zndfurprize, of the zeal " with which Sir WM. PETTY, and after him, Mr. " M AIT LAND, contended, in oppofition to fome (: French writers, for the fuperiority of London " to Paris, or any other city in the world. They " did not confidcr, continues he, that they were " only maintaining that England had a greater evil " in it than any other kingdom." I cannot help thinking that this remark might have been fpared. The zeal of thofe gentlemen was, in my conception, natural and laudable. They were not ignorant probably, that great towns are, in themfelves, very frequently great evils; but they knew alfo, that they are fometimes indi- cations or caufes of greater advantages ; that they are the natural concomitants of overflowing wealth, of extenfive manufactures, of a wide and flourim- ing commerce ; that they give life and animation to arts and fciences, and diffufe fupport and main- tenance, with all the bleflings of induftry, far and wide; and that if, from the too common licenti- oufnefs of their inhabitants, they are not able of themfelves always to keep up their numbers, the encouragement they give to the adjacent country will enable it mod amply to fupply that de- ficiency. But perhaps it is not neceflary to make thefe conceflions. Notwithftanduig what generally hap- pens, pens, it is by no means inconteftably and invari- ably true that large towns, even in themfelves confidered, and independent of external confe- quences, are unavoidably deftru&ivc of population. If proper attention were always paid to choice of fituation; to public, domeftic, and perfonal clean- linefs; to the introduction and circulation of frefh air and fome other circumftanccs, I am inclined to believe that the largeft cities, notwithftanding the many difadvantages infeparable from them, might be rendered nearly, if not altogether, as healthy, as the healthieft of country parifhes. I am led to this conclufion from fome obfervations upon the difeafes and population of the (city of Chefter, made by the ingenious Dr. HAYGARTH of that place, in the year 1774. According to this writer, the annual proportion of deaths in the fix parifhes comprehended within the walls of that city, is, In St. Michael's i in 50 Olave's i in 55 Bridget's i in 66 Martin's i in 59 Peter's i in 61 Cathedral i in 87 Average i in 61 The proportionable number of inhabitants thai die annually in fome country parifhes of diftin- guifhed heahhinefs, is as follows Pais ( 11 ) Pais de Vaiid i in 45 Country parifhes in Brandenburgh i in 45 Others in Brandenburgh i in 50 A country parifh in Hampihire for j> 90 years J V* $ Average i in 47! This account of country parifhes is taken from the fame writer. They have the original authority of Dr. PRICE himfelf, and I have called them parifhes of diftinguifhed heahhinefs, becaufe they appear to be more fo than the generality of thofe which have fallen under my own immediate obfer- vation; in fome of which the annual proportion of deaths on an average of 20 years, is very nearly, thus, Hunton, in Kent i in 45 Boughton i in 40 Toppesfield, in Eflex i in 44 Stifled, in Effex i in 36,5 Brightling, in Suflex 1 in 46,8 Eaftham. in Chefhire, (on an? r \ > i in 44,5 average or 14 years) > St. Kevcrne, a village in Cornwall i in 40,5 Thefe being country parifhes nearly of the fame kind, and not greatly differing in fize, if we divide the fum of their degrees of mortality by 7, the number of places, it will give as accurate an aver- age, I may faTely venture to fay as any of thofc above aboveraentioned. The eftimates arc founded on correft enumerations, and two of them on the medium of different enumerations made at differ- ent times in the courfe of the twenty years. Now this average mortality is about i in 42. Confe- quently, thefe feven country parifhes, moft of which are reputed to be extremely healthy, and, in my apprehcnfion, are really fo as much as any I know, are, in this refpeft, almoft one third in- ferior to the city of Chefter; which contains more than 14000 people, fome of whom are, perhaps, not intirely free from the infection of modern luxury. Here then is one great town, at leaft, that does not feem the grave of the human fpecies, nor to check the growth of mankind quite fo faft as either war, pejlilence, or famine. To what is this owing? If the reader will confult the ingeni- ous obfervations above alluded to, he may form fome probable conjecture. He may too, perhaps, be inclined to doubt, whether if this city were converted into a country parifh, it would be much more healthy than it is at prefent. SECT ( 13 ) SECT. III. The three long and dejlruttive Continental Wars in which ioe have been involved Jincc the Revolution. THE next caufe of depopulation affigned by by our author, is, the three long and dejlruttivc continental wars in -which we have been involved* Now the carnage of war it muft be owned, will necefiarily diminifh the numbers of the contending parties. It may, however, be obferved that this is not always injurious to population, in full propor- tion to the numbers (lain, added to thofe who pe- riih by ficknefs and military hardmips, and the change and variety of climate. We have already remarked the great multitudes employed in making the various inftruments of deftruftion, and the other requifites of armies and navies. And this confideration is of fo much importance, that could we fuppofe the cafe of a war carried on with per- fect fecurity to our manufactures, commerce, and agriculture, inftead of diminishing our inhabitants, it would, probably, on the whole, tend to increafe them. However, granting the matter to be otherwife, I fee not why our author has affigned the deftruc- tion of people occafioned by thefe continental wars, as either peculiar to this nation, or to this century. C The ( '4 ) The fields of Oudenard, of Blenheim, and of Hochftet; the plains of Minden, and innumerable other places [by fea and land, in almoft every quarter of the world, are ftrong evidence that in two of thefe wan at leafl our enemies fuffered rather more than we, and yet their numbers, it feems, have notwithftanding greatly increafed. But if foreign continental wars have fo wonderfully depopulated our country, muft not civil and domcf- tic wars have done fo infinitely more ? And have not thefe been few or trifling fince the revolution compared with thofe that fo frequently happened before? Did our manufactures, our agriculture, our population, receive fo i r evere a check during any of the wars abovementioned, as in the grand rebellion of the laft century, when all was confufion and carnage from one end of the kingdom to the other, and our fields and plains, in almoft every county, were drenched in the blood of the braveft of our countrymen? Or what was even that to thofe inceffant fcenes of (laughter, of havock and devaftation, during the dreadful contefts between the houfes of York and Lancafter ? Can, therefore, the three continental wars in which we have been involved fince the revolution be mentioned, with any propriety, as caufes of increafmg depopulation^ peculiar to the prejcnt century? SECT. t '5 ) SECT. IV. Migrations to our Settlements abroad; and particularly to the Eqfl and Weft Indies. AS to migrations to our ftttlcmcnts abroad, and particularly to the Eajl and Weft Indies, the diminution of inhabitants arifing from thence is by no means proportionate to the number which actually leave us for that purpofe. Thofe who remain behind have probably more ample means of fubfi Hence. They have ftronger encourage- ments to marriage, and are likely to be rendered better and more ufeful members of fociety. Emigrations to the Eaft and Weft Indies, in particular, which the Do&or marks as contribut- ing more to depopulate our country than any other, I am inclined to think, on the contrary, have done the leaft towards it. The hopes of railing a for- tune, or obtaining an advantageous eftablimment, in one of thefe places, has, perhaps, operated on the minds of the middle ranks of people in the kingdom at large ; in the fame manner as the prof- peel of comfortable fubfiftence from the rifing towns of Liverpool, Manchefter, and Birmingham has up- on the apprehenfions of both the middle and lower claffes,in their refpcclive neighbourhoods. The pea- fants and inferior farmers are firmly perfuaded that, fhouldthey have ever fo many children, they (hall find ample employment, consequently decent f jp- C 2 port port and maintenance, from the growing manu- factures of thofe flourifhing towns. All fears of a burdenfome family are removed, and they form the matrimonial connexion as foon as may be. A numerous offspring is the confequence; this is a powerful incitement to the mod active in- duftry ; and the children are, at length, many of them provided for in the manner which the original rea- foning of their Parents taught them to expect, and the remainder gain fubfiftence from that increafcd and improved agriculture of the circumjacent country, which has been the natural confequence of its fortunate fituation. Whereas had there been no fuch rifing and flouriming towns near thefe men, they would probably have funk under the difcouragement of their narrow views, and pafled their days in a (late of celibacy. Of fimilar influ- ence are the profpefts opened to the Eaft and Weft on the minds of pcrfons of middle and higher rank. A young man of tolerably good education, but (lender fortune, is often deterred from marriage by the alarming apprehenfions of poverty anddiftrefs. He has perhaps no talents for mining at the bar, no abilities or connections to raife him in the church, no relifh for the hardfhips, dangers, and diflipations of the army and navy. If his views, therefore, do not extend beyond the limits of this ifland, he is in danger of finking into a very ufelcfs and infignificant being. To refcue him from thii defponding ftate ; both the Indies fpread their ( 17 ) their treafures to his view. He is tranfported at the idea of fudden opulence; he obtains an ap- pointment to a lucrative poft; he eagerly embarks, and fafe*ly arrives at the deftined port. He is foon admitted to a profitable fhare in the merchandize of the place. In ten, fifteen, 'or twenty years, h acquires an affluent fortune, the love of his native country, or the ambition of making a diftinguimed figure in it, fends him home. He marries a wife, buys an eftate, makes a thoufand fancied improve- ments, whether right or wrong, judicous or inju- dicious, is of no great importance; the induftrious poor are employed, the hungry are fed, and the naked clothed; while his houfe, mean time, is filling with a family of his own. Grant that all adventurers of this kind are not equally fortunate, but that fome perifh by the way, and that others fall a facrifice to change of climate; yet if one in three or four return as above defcribed, much more is done for the general advantage and population of the kingdom than if they had ftaid at home, and fpent their time in that torpid ftate in which they would otherwife moft probably have remained. In conformity to the above obfervations, I might here remark that the Greek and Roman dates were never more flourishing and populous than when their emigrations were moft frequent and numerous. And we are aflured, in modern times, that thofe provinces in Spain which fend the greateft num- C 3 bers frers to their South American colonies ftill remain the fulleft of people*. Thefe fafts might afford the fpeculative reafoner a ftrong prefumption that this may likcwife have been the cafe with ourfelves; that what has increafed the number of mankind in other countries may poflibly have done the fame in our own. But, unlefs I am greatly miftaken, I have fomething more than fpeculative reafoning to depend upon; I have, I think, nearly pofitivc proof that what occafioncd, at leaft, accompanied, an ad- vance of population amongft the Greeks, Romans, and Spaniards, has produced, or been uniformly attended by, a fimilar effect among Britons. Y- As the kingdom is made up of counties, and counties compofed of parifhes, I prefume it will be readily allowed, that what can be certainly fhewn to have taken place in the laft, muft probably like- wife hold good with regard to the two firft. This principle admitted, I have no doubt of evincing, to very general fatisfaftion, that emigrations have been far from depopulating our country. The beft evidence * Mr. EDEN'S letters to the Earl of Carliflc, letter 5, page 183. The latter part of the above aflertion feems ftrongly countenanced by Mr. DILLON, in his late travels through Spain, where he tells us, page 5, that the population of that whole kingdom from the year 1768 to 1778 was advanced more than one tenth. And as the Spanifh commerce to their fouthern fettlements has been vaftly increafed during that period, the Spanifh emigrations thither moft probably have been more numerous than heretofore. As to the Greek and Roman dates, they fcem to have been one continued feries of emigrations from their morning dawn, to their meridian iplendor. ( '9 ) evidence in this cafe are the pariih regifters* which, where there are no diffenters, exhibit the number of baptifms and burials, and confequently fhew, with confiderable accuracy, whether there have been any emigrations and how great. If the burials and baptifms are equal, it is to be prefumed there have been no emigrations at all; if the baptifms exceed the burials, that excefs mews the number of perfons that have left the parifh ; and on the con* trary, when the burials are more numerous than the baptifms, the place muft have been recruited from fome others. Allowing thefe principles, then, and that this fource of information is fatisfaftory, we may eafily judge, from the following fhort table, whether emigrations have fo wonderfully thinned this kingdom of inhabitants as is fuppofed. c 4 TABLE; TABLE of the Number of BAPTISMS and BURIALS in Country Parijhes in different and dijlant Counties for twenty Years each, at two different Periods, the former beginning a few Years before or after the Revolution, the latter between the Years 1749 and 1760. B E. Former Period. Latter Period. Counties. *Parifties. Bap. Bur. Bap. Bur. Emigr. Hunton 148 108 2 33 192 41 E. Farleigh 201 184 302 219 83 Boughton 213 M3 316 242 74 i ' i Loofc 182 144 250 186 Linton '59 157 296 223 73 tawj Debtling' 11 121 119 139 7 6 Kent< Hawkhiirft 5 21 59 778 55 2 73 Barming 85 74' 118 96 22 Brabourne 184 137 166 148 l8 ./ ! Monk's ) i . i Horton $ 106 64 100 55 45 T. Sutton *54 186 265 221 44 Chart 164 130 192 10 5 87 ^Otham 93 74 155 145 10 Lancaft.Stalmin 528 560 6 33 462 171 Stafford. Hanbury 433 472 485 476 9 Eflex. Toppesfield 252 149 339 266 73 Chefter.Eaftham 463 380 680 520 160 Totals 4207 3 6 79 5447,4137 1310 We * Many of thcfe pariflies have no diflenters at all; the reft extremely few. The reader is alfo defired to remember, that, being country parifhes, very little part of the different propor- tion between the baptifms and burials at the two periods is occafioncd by any different degree of healthincfs. . ( 21 ) We here fee that in the courfe of twenty yean no lefs than 1310 perfons, nearly the fourth part of the whole, emigrated from thefe 17 parifhes; and yet that the remaining population is ftill confidera- bly greater than it was 90 years ago (i. c.) comput- ing by the bapdfms, one fourth, by the burials, one eighth, and by the joint ratio of both, about one (ixth. It is immediately obvious likewife, on the flighted infpeftion of the table, that, in general, agreeable to the reafoning above adopted, thofe parifhes have had the greateft increafe of people from which the emigrations have been moft numer- ous. And, I prefume, no one will pretend to affirm that it is a matter of any confequence in the prefent argument, whether the perfons that thus to appear have left their refpe&ive places of nativity, went to London, Briftol, or Liverpool; to North Ame- rica, to the Eaft or Weft Indies. In each and all the cafes, the conclufion in favour of emigrations is precifely the fame. In fhort, mere emigration, in itfelf confidered, proves nothing at all. It will increafe or diminim a people according to the caufe from whence it proceeds. If it be occafioned by lofs of trade, decreafe of manufactures, decline of hufbandry, and confequently want of employ- ment, depopulation of a country will rapidly follow. If, on the contrary, it arifes from extent of foreign pofleffions, which enlarge the demands for domeftic commodities, whether the products of agriculture, or the fabrications of art, it will conftantly aug- ment ( 22 ) ment the remaining population, and, perhaps, the more, that under thefe circumftances go away, the more will ftill be left behind. I cannot better ap- ply this to the emigrations from our kingdom dur- ing the prefent century, nor can I more clearly illuftrate, or more ftrongly confirm its truth and propriety, than in the words of a writer, whofe au- thority Dr. PRICE will not be difpofed to contro- vert, Dr. BENJAMIN FRANKLIN*. In his thoughts written in the year 1751, on the peopling of countries, " there are fuppofed, fays he, to be now upwards " of one million of Englijh fouls in North America; " and. yet, perhaps, there is not one the fewer in " Britain, but rather many more, on account of *t the employment the colonies afford to manufac- ," -twers at home. A well regulated nation is like "# .polypus; take away a limb, its place is foon "ifuppjied; cut it in two, and each deficient part " fhaH fpeedily grow out of the part remaining. ' Thus, as you may, by dividing, make ten poly- " pufes out of one; you may, of one, make, ten * c nations, equally populous and powerful; or ra- " ther, increafe a nation tenfold in numbers and " ftrength." SECT, * Political, mifccllaneouj, and philofophical pieces, page 10. printed at London, 1779. SECT. V. Engrojfing of Farms. THE engroffing of farms is the next caufe affign- ed by Dr. PRICE for a diminution of people. Now this may poffibly be productive of that effel in fome particular cafes, in certain fituations, or when carried to an extravagant length; but, in general and as far as ufually takes place, I am perfua- ded, from my own obfervation in more counties than one, it is far otherwife. That we may proceed with greater clearnefs and certainty on this fubjecl:, I will put a plain intelligible cafe, and which carries the fyftem of engroffing even further than what com- monly happens. Suppoie, then, fix farms nearly, or quite contiguous to each other; four of 25 pounds a year a piece, with about three fourths arable and the reft pafture. The remaining two 50 pounds a year each, containing 70 or 80 acres of land, and the fame proportion of arable and pafture. Let thefe be firft occupied by fo many different farmers. A perfon poffeffed of more than a hundred and fifty pounds will hardly condefcend to take one of the fmallcr fize. Such a man after having furnifiied his houfe, laid in his flock, and paid for the pre- vious tillage of the land, has not a farthing to fpare. Jf the foil be hard and rocky, or ftiff and heavy, the little team he can afford to keep, two horfes at mpft, is not fufficiently powerful to plough it as it ought ( 24 ') ought to be. He and his next neighbour, there- fore, occafionally join their forces. The confe- quencc is that both farms, each in its turn, are unfeafonably ploughed and unfeafonably fown. Hence a frequent failure of crops. They proba- bly too want money to manure and improve their grounds; which alone could render them productive. Or fuppofe them not deficient in thi* refpecl; yet is their cxpence, their labour and in- duilry, for the moft part, but poorly recompenfed; in order to have a due proportion of corn and fal- lows, or a fufficierit variety of produces, their fields are fmall, at moil three or four acres a piece. If inclofed, the feparations arc probably hedges, with perhaps many a large pollard or tall timber tree; thefe fo obRruft the fertilizing rays of the fun, and draw fo much of the nutricious qualities of the foil, that, for two or three rods around every field, the land becomes good for but little, and fcarcely pays the mere expence of tillage. When harveft arrives, there is about half a crop. During the courfe of the year, the horfes, hogs, cows, and fheep. fenfi- bly feel their maftcr's poverty. You fee them {talking about, half flarved and like fo many fkele- tons. Hence a ftrange deficiency in the produce of the dairy; and if the butcher can be perfuaded to take any of their half-fed hogs, fheep, or cows, it muit be at an under price. Two of thefe wretched farmers find employment for one labouring family; and they pafs their days in in continual drudgery and fatigue; for ever encoun- tring greater difficulties, and greater hardfhips than perfons who have nothing to fupport them but their daily labour. With regard to the affair of population, it ap- pears, from the above detail, that there are upon the four fmaller farms, fix families, four of farmers, and two of labourers; which, upon an average computation, will amount to about 28 or 30 perfons. In the two remaing farms of 50^. each, all the above particulars will be fomewhat mended. The farmers will each do their bufinefs within themfclves; their lands will be more feafonably and more effec- tually cultivated; every confequence will be more advantageous; while four labourers are conftantly employed, and their families, in a great meafure, fupported and maintained. The number of inha- bitants therefore on thefe two farms will be about 25 or 30 perfons; which added to thofe on the fmaller farms, amount, in all, to 55, or 60. Let us next fuppofe thefe feveral farms in the occupation of a fingle perfon. If he has a proper capital, which ought not to be lefs than 1500 or 2000 pounds, he immediately fets himfelf to culti- vate and improve them to the utmoft of which they are capable; ftubs up every ufelefs pernicious hedge; enlarges the fields and paftures; drains thofe that are ( 26 ) are too wet; overflows thofc that are too dry; fetches manure from every quarter; howeverdillant and however cxpenfive; ploughs, fo\vs, and per- forms every other part of hufbandry, in its proper feafon, and in the moft thorough and effectual manner. When harveft arrives, his crops arc plentiful ; his barns are filled ; flacks arife on every fide; and when his corn is threfhed, taking advan- tage of the variety of markets, he fells it for the beft price. His cattle, mean time, arc numerous and well fed; battening on his highly improved paftures, they every way turn to the bed account; are pleafing to the eye, ftrong for labour, or fat and fleck for (laughter. His dairy fhares the gene- ral advantage; at once producing greater quantities of cheefe and butter, and, perhaps, of fuperior quality and better Jlavour. While all thefe things are going forward, he employs eight or ten, or, as I have fometimes feen in very high degrees of cul- ture and improvement, even 15 married labourers; befides the fervants in his own family. So that in- cluding the farmer and his houfhold, thefe labourers and their refpetive wives and children, there are, in a great degree, maintained and fupported from this cngrofling mode of cultivation not lefs than between 60 and 70 perfons; whereas in the former feparate one there were at moft not above 60. But granting that in the former fcale of occupa- tion there were really more handj immediately employed employed upon the feveral farms, as will certainly fometimes happen; it would by no means prove it more favourable for population than the latter. The engrofling method, as it evidently raifes greater quantities of corn, and an increafed and improved produce of every kind, muft naturally lay the foundation for an encouragement of manufac- tures, and, confequently, an increafe of inhabitants, in other parts of the kingdom. The cngroffing of farms, therefore, fo generally and fo loudly complained of, while attended with thofe improvements in agriculture, which it almoft always occalions, is fo far from being upon the whole, a caufe of the depopulation of our country, it is either productive of the contrary effeft, or a prefumptive evidence that this contrary effecl is really taking place in the nation at large. One very ftriking confequence, indeed, of the engrofling fcheme, and at firft fight, not the moft pleating one, is the greater increafe of labouring poor, and, in the end, of neceffitous and indigent perfons. And hence one principal fourceofthat rapid growth of our parifh rates, the fubje6l of fuch common andjuft complaint. But this, difagreea- blc and painful as it may be to the tender and feel- ing heart, in other refpefts, is, I conceive, highly favourable to an augmentation of the general flock of our people. It is allowed, on every hand, that early and general marriage is of all things moft con- ducive ducive to this defirable purpofe. But amongft whom docs this mod univei Tally take place ? Is it not among the lower and labouring part of mankind? Go into any country town, village, or parifh, and who are the unmarried? Who are the maids and batchelors between the ages of twenty and fifty? Are they not of the middle and higher ranks? The number of regularly working people, when com- pared with their fuperiors, are, perhaps, three to one; and yet of thcfe latter I think I may venture to affirm, there are almoft three times as many (in- gle pcrfons, as of the former; confequently the marriages among the lower claffes of fociety are to thofe among the middle and higher orders, in the proportion of nearly nine to one.* Thefe latter have a certain pride of Ration; a Ihame and fear of defcending beneath it; a fuperior, perhaps, a falie, refinement of thought; a luxury and delicacy of habit; a tendernels of body and mind, which ren- dering formidable the profpecl of poverty, and thereby checking the impulfes of nature, frequently prevent matrimonial connections. The former, on the contrary, having none of thefe impediments to furmount, readily obey the fuggcflions of natu- ral N * Since writing this I have made an aftual enumeration of the perfons of the different ranks here mentioned, in five or fix country parHhes, and their proportion to each other, and their relative number of marriages for the lad 30 years. From this refearch, as far as hitherto carried, the labouring poor are to all the fuperior ranks, nearly as 3 to i ; but their mar- riages as about 6 to i. In large towns and villages this dif- ference is probably much greater, and the proportion may br little lefs tlun that Hated above, ral conftitution, and embrace the firft opportunity of an infeparable union with fome one of the other fex. They are perfectly regardlefs of what they may meet with in their paffage through their hum* ble walk of life. Let the worft happen that may, it will be nothing more than what they have been enured to in their earlier years. They have alrea- dy trod the rugged path, and felt its thorns and briars; at all events, thofe of higher rank, and who have plenty of money, muft help them forward, and afford them every neceflary fupport. What, there- fore, is apparently the worft confequence of engrof* fing farms, is highly conducive to an increafe of people. SECT. VI. Enclojure of Commons and wqfle Grounds. ANOTHER afligned caufe of depopulation is the enclofure of commons and wafte grounds. This I confefs, from the very nature of things and amerefpeculative view of the matter, appears to mypoorunderftanding, a moft extraordinary para- dox. There is in my own neighbourhood a fine heath, confiding of about a thoufand acres. In its prefent uncultivated ftate, it does not fupport a fingle poor family; nor does almoft any one receive benefit from it but fome of the farmers around, who occafionally D turn ( 30 ) turn a few of their cattle upon it. Whereas, were it enclofedwellcultivatedand improved, it would make fix or eight good farms, from fcventy to a hundred a year each. Thefe, befides the farmers and their feveral houfeholds. would require near 30 labourers, who, together with their wives and children, added to the tradefmen and mechanics, that would be necefiary to fupply their refpcclive wants, would raife the population on this fingle fpot, in the courfe of a very few years, at leaft, 200 perfons. The produce of the ground, mean time, upon an annual average 500 quarters of wheat, 200 of barley or oats, and other things in proportion, would afford provifion for an augmentation of people in other places. Thefe public advantages might be eafily obtain- ed without the leaft degree of private injuftice. Whatever benefit any one at prefent enjoys might be amply compenfated by a certain allowance of inclofure fecured to him as his peculiar and per- manent property. If the poor man's cow has hi- therto furnifhed fuftenance to himfelf and his numerous family; if his geele and poultry help him to pay his rent; if his horfe or his afs fave him many a weary ftep as he returns from the labours of the day, in God's name, let him not be plundered of thefe bleffings without an adequate return. But thefe and every other requifite amends, whether claimed on the foundation of ancient right. right, or enjoyed only from connivance, may eafily be made. A hundred acres, well fenced, fecured, and cultivated, would be more than equiva- lent to every advantage poffefled at prefent; nine tenths, therefore, would ftill remain clear profit to the public, as well as to numerous private individuals. Where, indeed, arable land, in confequence of inclofures, is converted into pafturage, depopula- tion, on that particular fpot, muft naturally follow. Undoubtedly the tending of fheep and feeding of oxen require much fewer hands, than tilling the ground, threfhing and fowing of corn, reaping and gathering into barns. This kind of inclofures, I am informed, has particularly taken place in the counties of Northampton, Leicefter, Warwick, Huntingdon, and Buckingham. And there was a fort of neceffity for it. The foil being extremely wet, it was very little fuited to the plough; it was, confequently, miferably cultivated, and its pro- duce proportionably fmall. Since its tillage has been exchanged for pafture, the intire quantity of food produced by it for the benefit of mankind has been greatly increafed. Thoufands and tens of thoufands have been fed by its beef and mutton more than ever were by its wheat and barley; the landlords have doubled their rents; the farmers have increafed in wealth; while the hides, tallow, and wool of their oxen, and fheep have furnifhed D 2 materials ( 32 ) materials for increafing imployment, increafing manufactures, and increafing people in various places. If, therefore, in thofe particular fpots where thefe inclofures have been made, the num- ber of peafants and labourers has been confidera- bly diminiflied, and the country parifhes deprived of many of their inhabitants; mechanics and arti- ficers have greatly multiplied, and neighbouring towns and villages become rich, large, and populous. Since writing thefe remarks I have met with Mr. YOUNG'S ingenious publication, called Political Arithmetic, which affords, I think, ample fatisfac- tion on this head; and, indeed, whoever will con- fult that performance will find many juft obferva- tions, with much judicious reafoning, on the caufes and principles of population in general, as well as on other fubjecls of civil and political importance. The reader I am perfuaded, will require no apo- logy for my introducing here part of two pages from this author. They do equal credit to the clearnefs of his judgement, and the vigour of his fancy; while I flatter myfclf they are alfo a ftrik- ing illuftration of what is above advanced, and mufl carry conviction to every mind that is open to it. " Dr. PRICE, fays he, and the other writers " who affure us we mould throw down our hedges " and wafte one third of our farms in a barren *' fallow by way of making beef and mutton cheap, will ( 33 ) " will confine themfelves to the inclofures which " have converted arable to grafs. What fay they " to thofe that have changed grafs to arable? " They chufe to be filent. I do not comprehend " the amufemcnt lhat is found in conftantly look- " ing at thofe objects which are fuppofed to be " gloomy, and in regularly lamenting the evils " that furround us, though they flow from caufes " which fhower down much fuperior bleffings. " When I look around me in this country, I '' think I every where fee fo great and animating ' a profpecl, that the fmall fpecks which may be " difcerned in the hcmifphere, are loft in the " brilliancy that furrounds them. I cannot fpread " a curtain over the illumined fcene, and leave " nothing to view but the mere fliades of fo " fplendid a piece. " What will thefe gentlemen fay to the inclo- " fures in Norfolk, Suffolk, Nottingham/hire, Dcrby- "Jhire, Lincoln/hire, York/hire, and all the northern, " counties? What fay they to the tends of Suffolk, ' : Norfolk, and Nottingham/hire, which yield corn " and mutton, and beef, from the force of inclofure t: alone.? What fay they to the wolds of York and " Lincoln which from barren heaths, at one {hilling " an acre, are by inclofure alone rendered profita- " ble farms? Afk Sir CECIL WRAY if, without in- 11 clofure, he would advance his heaths by fanfoin <; from one milling an acre to 20? What fay they D 3 ta ( 34 ) tl to the vaft tra&s in the peak of Derby, which '' by iriclofure alone are changed from black re- <: gions of ling to fertile fields covered with cattle? ct What fay they to the improvement of moor in " the northern counties, where mclofures alone, have " made thofe countries fmile with culture which " before were dreary as night?"* All this is ftrong, perhaps, decifive evidence, in favour of inclofures, and I am glad to find that the practical good fenfe of the nation is every day fo far furmounting the ideal fuggellions of fpecu- Jation that feldom a feffion of parliament paffcs without frefh bills being granted for this purpofe, in fome part of the kindom or other. Provided they are fairly obtained, and the feveral allotments of ground equitably and judicioufly apportioned, I have never yet met with afolidobjeclion to them. With thefe precautions therefore, and under thefe reftriclions, I hope and truft they will go on till there is fcarcely an uninclofed, or wafle and barren fpot, from one extremity of the ifland-to the other; but all are converted into fruitful fields, or paf- tures, and the whole refembles one large rich and variegated garden. SECT Political Arhhmcticj pa^c 149. ( 35 ) SECT. VI. High Price of Prom/ions and, the increafe of public Debts and Taxes. AS to the high price of provifions and the in- creafe of the public debts and taxes, they may be caufes of depopulation or not, ac- cording to their proportion to other things. If they rife remarkably higher than they are among neighbouring nations, they may difcourage our hufbandry and manufactures; may check our trade and commerce, and thereby probably obftruci the further increafe, perhaps, actually diminifh the prefent number of our people. But while the price of provifions rapidly advances likewife *among our neighbours, \vhich every one who has vifited them knows to be the cafe; and whilft they are plunged in debts in full proportion to their refources, ours may, perhaps, continue to rife ftill higher and yet produce no very mifchievous confequences as to the purpofe in queftion. D 4 SECT * I mvfelf vifited France and Flanders in the years 1770, and 1776; and I think I may venture to affirm that the price of provifions, and the expence of travelling in general, in that very fhort fpace of time, were increafed one fifth. But nothing can be fafely built on a foundation fo extremely fluc- tuating. Whoever will confult the accounts at our victualling office will fee that the leading and more fubftantial articles of human food were, on an average of ten years, in the latter end of the reign of Queen Anne and the beginning of that of George the firfl, as dear as they have ever been fmce. ( 36 ) SECT. VII. Increajing Luxury. BUT our author feems to lay the greatefl ftrefs, on our increafing luxury. As he has no where exprefsly defined the term, and as in the common ufe of it, there is fomething extremely vague and indeterminate, it is, perhaps, not abfo- lutely clear what we are to underftand by it. T f by luxury be meant the ufe of whatever accommo- dation, convenience, or elegance is beyond the mere neceffities of nature, it is certain that there may be various degrees of it, not only without in- jury, but with great advantage, tofociety; with- out impairing either the morals, the health, or the fortune of the individuals that indulge in it, while it affords comfortable fupport and maintenance to thofe who are employed in providing its objects. The Doctor mentions as inftances of the advanced prevalence of luxury the many fplendid houfes about London, the great increafe of coaches, and the almofl doubled confumption of coals. Now furely thefe are all very harmlefs things; a man may live in a large commodious houfe, may adorn it with handfome furniture, may be conveyed in a carriage, inftead of going on foot or on horfe back; may have a comfortable fire both in his kitchen and parlour, without danger of either fhortening his days, or bringing on a fingle diforder ddtruftive to ( 37 ) lo the human conftitution. Grant that it operates on a few individuals as a check to marriage; to a great majority it certainly furnilhes the itrongeft motives for forming that connection. Grant that a few weak men, from an ambition of aping their fuperiors, are carried beyond the limits of their fortune, ruin their credit and fink into poverty and wretchednefs; on what numbers, mean time, does the fafhion of fplendid expence beftow fub- ftantial benefits? What multitudes of induftrious artificers is it warming and clothing and feeding? The carpenter, the mafon, the upholfterer, the cabinet-maker, the coach-maker, the painter, the collier, the failor? If it has not the merit of charity, it produces at leaft fome of its beneficial effefts, conveyed through the channel of inceffant in- duftry. Let me not here, however, be underftood to maintain the pernicious do6lrine that priv ate -vices are public benefits. When luxury corrupts the heart, and produces irregularity of conduct, it is highly mifchievous to the community. If a man, in the delicacies of eating and drinking, proceeds to excefs and intemperance; or if he fo gives way to the indulgences of nice accommodation, and elegant refinement as to become flothful and effe- minate, utterly incapable of any noble exertion; he is then a contemptible being; wretched in him- felf, ancj of little fervice to his country. But thefe, however ( 38 ) however they may difgrace a few individuals among us, are not, I apprehend, the general chara6ter of the age. The brutal exceflcs of gluttony and drunkennefs difgraced, perhaps, the manners of our early anceftors; but they are now driven from polite fociety and confined, in a great degree, to the low and the vulgar. And with regard to ef- feminate refinement , inactivity, or incapacity for noble and manly exertion, where is the founda- tion for the charge ? When was that high fpirit which has fo often diftinguimed the inhabitants of Britain more alive than at prefent? Have not per- fons of every rank, almoft of every age, capable of lifting a fword, or bearing a mufket, readily ftept forth in defence of their country? Have they not eagerly left their private affairs for the public fervice; and quitted the enjoyments of domeftic life, for the tumult of a camp, and the fatigues of military duty ? Do not the courage and conduct of our officers by fea and land and the -valour and intrepidity of OUT foidiers and failors equal their highffl character in any age? Have not RODNEY, and Co R N w A L L i s given repeated proofs' of (kill and judgement, and a cool determined courage which have hardly been exceeded by our greateft commanders in the moft fplendid periods of our hiftory? Upon the whole, whatever progrefs luxury may have made amongd us, we have not been prefented with any convincing evidence that it lias produced* very pernicious confequences in the minds ( 39 ) minds and manners of our people at large, or fo operated as a check to marriage as to have thinned our country of inhabitants. There feems, indeed, little more truth and accuracy in the Doctor's eftimate of our prefent principles and manners, than there was in that ejlimate of the principles and manners of the times given by a celebrated writer at the commencement of the laft war who drew a pifture of our national character as little confo- nant to faft as to that high reputation for genius and good fenfe, which by his former productions he had fo juftly. acquired. He confidently repre- fented us as deftitute of every moral and manly principle; as loft in diflipation or devoted to plea.- fure and amufement; as fo enfeebled by luxury and indolence as to be incapable of purfuing with vigour our moft favourite objecls; as having loft the ufe of all our limbs, and therefore forced to be conveyed like helplefs infants from place to place. He maintained that we had neither ftrength nor courage to defend ourfelves ; that we muft fall at the firft attack of our neighbours, and quietly fink into the moft wretched and contemptible flavery. The indignant Englifh made no other reply to thefe groundlefs imputations, than (as VOLTAIRE, I think, fome where exprefles it) by immediately beating their enemies in every quarter of the world, and carrying terror and conqueft where ever they went. But our prefent author extends his accu- fations of luxury even ftill further. He does not merely ( 40 ) merely afTert that it has deprived us of ftrength and courage to fight, but even of fpirit and refo- lution, to continue our fpecies. I hope, however, to evince, to a great degree of probability, at leaft, that we have all the while not only been keeping up our old ftock of inhabitants, but actually in- creafing them as faft as ever. I have now taken the propofed curfory view of the affigned caufes of depopulation ; and al- though I have not attempted to difcufs them with that degree of accuracy which would be requifite to give perfect fatisfaftion ; yet there has appear- ed, I think, in the courfe of even this flight ex- amination a weight of argument againft them fully fufficient to juflify our difTent from them, if only fupported by mere perfonal affertion, or fpecu- lative reafoning. But our author, to do him juftice, does not pretend to claim our affent on his own perfonal authority, or mere abftraft fpeculation. He pro- duces what he efleems ckar dccifivc proofs of the foci, and pronounces them to be altogether as fa- tisfaclory as an atual enumeration of the inhabi- tants of the whole kingdom could be *. What thefe proofs are and how much to be relied on, let us now proceed to confider. PART * Appendix to the eflay on the population, &c. page 38. ( 41 ) PART II. Examination of the Proofs adduced by Dr. PRICE to ejlablifh the fad of a decreased population. nr JL H E S E proofs we are told are three ; the I. Is deduced from the decreafed number of houfes in the returns of the furveyors of the window lights ; the II. From the decreafed number of burials in the London Bills of mortality ; and the III. From the decreafed produce of the heredi- tary and temporary excife. All thefe, it feems, are in fuch perfeft confor- mity, and fo mutually corroborate each other's teftimony, that they form together a body of evi- dence little inferior to mathematical demonftra- tion. Before I venture to attack thefe proofs in form, I muft beg leave to obferve, in order to foften a little the formidable appearance they have af- fumed, that the firft and laft of them, the returns of the furveyors, and the produce of the excife, are obvioufly built on a fufpicious foundation. All public accounts, in confequence of the impofition of ( 42 ) of any public tax, -will always be extremely un- certain. There are never wanting a number of perfons who are interefted to attempt connivance and concealment. Orders are accordingly no fooner iffued for a general return to be made on fuch occafions, than the wife heads of every pa- rim are immediately laid together, how beft to evade and defeat the intention of the legiflature, whatfoevcr that may be. Nor let it be laid that this will equally take place, at every period, and that consequently, the deception muft be as great at one time as at another. For it is, on the contrary, a fair pre- fumption that it will gradually increafe with in- creafmg taxes ; the motives for this fpecies of cunning are thereby ftrengthened and multiplied, and, therefore, allowing the fame degree of vir- tue and morality in the conduct of men, the ope- ration of thefe motives muft be proportionably advanced. Having made thefc general remarks let us now come to an examination of the particular pre- tended proofs. The firft is deduced from the fur- veyors' returns. That this argument may appear in its full force I will here place it before the reader, according to the Doctor's own ftatement. Total number of houfes in Eng-^ land and Wales from the hearth book. > 1.319,000 in the year 1690, } Number f 43 ) NUMBER OF HOUSES IN ENGLAND AND WALES IN 1759, 6l, AND 77, FROM THE RETURNS OF THE SURVEYORS OF THE HOUSF AND WINDOW DUTIES. In 1759 In 1761 In 1777 Houfes charged 679,149 678,915 682.077 Uninhabited Houfes 24,904 25,628 19,396 Houfes excufcd-v on account oK 282^29 276,149 251,261 poverty } Total 986,482 980,692 952,734 According to this ftatement the whole of the Doctor's reafoning in all its efiential parts, ftands thus. In the year 1600 the number of ) i r i i > 1 53 1 9> 21 'l homes in the kingdom was ^ Of people at five to a houfe 6,596,075 In the year 1759, that is 70 years af- ) ft - ter, the number of houies was only ) Of people, 4,932,410 Dccreafe of houfes > 33 2 -733 Of people . 1,663,665 Two years after, i. e. in 1761, the) c J C 900.092 number of houfes was no more than) Of people _ . 4,903,460 Further decreafe of houfes 5:79 Of people. 28.950 In the year 1777 the number of > houies was reduced to S Of C 44 ) Of people to . ' 4,763,670 Still further decreafe of houfes 27,958 Of people 1 3979 Total decreafe from 1690 to 1777? gg (both inclufive) of houfes ) Of people ' 1,832,405 The fubftance of thefe feveral deductions is, that, in the firft feventy years of thefe periods, the decreafe of our people was more than a million and a half; and in the next eighteen years a further gradual decreafe to the amount of almoft a hundred and feventy thoufand more ; and in the whole 89 years a decreafe of more than a mil- lion and eight hundred thoufand perfons ; or con- fiderable more than one fourth part of the whole; If we allow only 4^ to a houfe, the number of individuals in each period refpe&ively would in- deed be confiderably lefs, yet, as the general proportions would ftill remain the fame, and the eflence of the argument continue unaltered, I make no other allowance than that of Jive to a houfe ; which, I am likewife ftrongly perfuaded, notwitbftanding what the Doftor has aflerted to the contrary, is by no means too great an ave- rage for EngliJIi houfes, whatever it may be for Dutch, Swifs, French and Sicilian, fo flrangely in- termingled with them, when the fole purpofe was to afcertain a proportion for our own country only, and not any foreign one whatever. From t 45 ) From a fair and attentive confideration of the accounts for the feveral periods as dated above, I am fully convinced that the reafoning founded upon them is every where erroneous ; that fome of the accounts themfelves are improperly intro- duced at all, and others manifeftly inconfiftent with the conclufion of the whole. With regard to the number of houfes in 1690, according to the returns in the hearth books, Mr. EDEN, in my apprehenfion, has fhewn, with great appearance of probability at leaft, that by houfes was meant, not the buildings that people lived in, but the families contained in them. He has clearly evinced, by pafTages from Dr; DAVENANT'S book, where he is exprefsly reafoning upon this fubjecl, and from which the above account was taken, and not from the official hearth books, that be ufes the words houfes and families as fyndnimous terms, and without any other reafon for the choice of the one or the other, but the mere variation of phrafe. And indeed this promifcuous ufage of the two words I am fully convinced by feveral letters I have re- ceived during my prefent enquiries, is, in fome counties, extremely common to this very day. Mr. EDEN further obferves that this conftruc- tion of DAVENANT'S words is countenanced by the aftual produce of the hearth tax, from which the account itfelf was extracted. Nay, as he very E juftly ( 46 ) juflly obfcrves, the very table itfelf (hews that Dr. DAVENANT muft have meant families and not the buildings which they inhabited. For accord- ing to this return there were in the kingdom in the year 1690, 1,319115 houfes, and 2,563517 hearths. Under Dr. PRICE'S conftruclion of the word houfes there are lefs than two fire hearths or Jtoves to every dwelling-houfe in the whole king- dom, a thing utterly incredible, as there is fcarcely even a cottage, or at moft not one in 500, that has not at leafl two hearths. Noto if Dr. DAVENANT by the word houfes meant families and not the buildings themfelves, it is evident that the number of inhabitants calculated from his return muft be lefs than Dr. PRICE has made them ; becaufe there is frequently more than one family to a houfe, and upon an average the number in a family is undoubtedly lefs than the number in a houfe. This reafoning, however, Dr. PRICE does not admit; for he tells us Dr. DAVENANT con- fidered the number of houfes and the number of families as fo nearly the fame that he did not think it neceflary to diftinguifh between them. I am unwilling to believe that DAVENANT was under this miftake. According to all the obfervations I have yet been able to make the difference is very confiderable. Dr. PRICE, indeed, has produced, p. 6, of his eflay, a long lilt of towns and parifhcs to ( 47 ) to prove the near equality between them ; but I muft take the liberty to obferve that of the 38 articles which he has given us, only three are di- rectly to the purpofe ; that of the town of Not- tingham, the parifh of Manchefter, and the town of Liverpool ; and, unfortunately, thefe are full and ftrong againft him. In Nottingham the differ- ence between houfcs and families is more than a twelfth, in Manchefter near a twentieth, and in Li- verpool more than a fifth. An average formed from a conjunction of all three is above one eighth ; which, aflumed as an average for the whole king- dom, would make a difference of feven or eight hundred thoufand people; a number furely of fome confequence. As to the remaining articles of this table, 35 in number ; fome in themfelves, and the reft from the partial manner in which they are ftated, are, with refpeft to the fact to be afcertained, abfo- lutely ufelefs. In one part of them he has given us the number of perfons in a houfe, without tell- ing us how many there were in & family; in another we have the number in a family, but are not in- formed how many there were in a houfe. From, this partial ftatement nothing can be concluded with certainty. As the numbers, however, in/0- milics and houfes often appear near an equality, the only probable deduction is, that thefe words hovjes and families were ufed, by thofe that gave E 2 the ( 48 ) the information, promifcuoufly to fignify one and the fame thing ; that what are called families in one place, are deemed hoitfes in another, and fo reciprocally with regaid to moft, if not all, of them. What thus appears on the very face of the ta- ble, to be extremely probable; I beg leave to af- lure the Doftor is the real facl. with refpeft to all thofe places from which I have yet received au- thentic information, which are no inconfiderable part of the whole. I will mention only one, the town of Eolton in the county of Lancafter. In the Doctor's table there appears to be only 4 to a houfe in this crouded manufacturing town. I have good authority to believe there are more than fix. A letter now in my hands affures me that the inhabitants are really fo thick that it is no uncommon thing for one family to live in the cel- lar, and another in the garret ; and I leave the reader to guefs whether the intermediate apart- ments are uninhabited. In fhort, wherever in the Doctor's table there appears lefs than fac to a houfe, there the word houfe, (as far I have yet been able to dif cover) Another part of this catalogue, confifts of ac- counts from foreign countries, as Holland, France, Switzerland, Sicily ; but why thefe are introduced in ( 49 ) in a table profeffcdly intended as a ground to efti- mate the proportion between Englijh houfes and families I cannot conceive. One thing however, is flrikingly obvious in them. The average num- ber of perfons in the houfes and families of thefe countries refpe&ively, Holland in particular, is confiderably fmaller than among ourfelves ; and it confequently proves, with at leaft a ftrong de- gree of prefumptive probability, that the Eng- Hfh are more prolific and England more populous, than any of thofe places. (i Any communications the Doctor informs us, " pag. 82, will be received with gratitude which " may enable him to form a more perfect table of " this kind." I will endeavour to oblige him. The following table is formed, partly from the only pertinent part of his own, partly from the obliging communications of friends, partly from my own immediate rcfearches, and partly from a table of a fimilar kind in a pamphlet lately pub-< limed by the ingenious Mr. WALES. E 3 TABLE 50 TABLE SHEWING THE PROPORTION BETWEEN- ENGLISH HOUSES AND FAMILIES. TABLE, Counties. Parifhcs. Hou. Fam. Proportion Cumberland Carlifle 891 1,605 i to 1,8 Nottingham Nottingham fr*<>7 3.556 i to 1,088 Lancafter Manchefter parifli b 2,412 2,525 i to 1,046 Liverpool 6 34 8,002 i lo 1,088 Chefter Chefter 2,883 3'4 28 Effex Toppesfield 105 129 i to ,228 Stebbing 200 212 to ,06 High Roding 6 3 79 to ,254 Kent Maidftone 1,106 1,276 to ,153 Eaft Mailing 1 75 186 to ,006 Boughton 87 1O2 to >!73 Addington 29 33 to ,013 Hunton 7 1 82 to ,*54 Otham 37 5 1 to ,351 Tunftall 7 20 i to ,017 Suffolk from ) Haverhill 146 220 i to ,,506 MJT.WALES ) Hawfton 5 60 5 to 6 Blythiord 21 3 i to 1,428 Sotherton 62 83 i to 1,253 Spexhall *,5 22 i to 1,466 Bramfield 4 1 66. i to 1,609 Henham 24 3 i to 1,250 Helton 1 5 J 7 1 to 1,133 Swelland 21 2 9 r\ i to 1,380 Tuddcnham 27 43 i to 1,592 i Wangfoid 47 63 i to 1,340 Wenhafton 56 87 to 1,553 Waterfield 24 4 1 to 1,708 Wefthall 45 61 10 1 .355 Wiffett 38 54 to 1,421 Witncfham 50 78 to 1,560 Average proportion 7 to 8 E 4 It It is evident from this table that the difference between the number of houfes and families is much greater in country parifhes than in large towns. In the former the proportion is often 3 to 4, and 2 to 3. Could we therefore have obtained as many country houfes, as of thofe of towns; the average proportion would probably have been at leafl as g to 6. At the aera of the revolution the difparity was, perhaps, confiderably lefs. I will fuppofe the pro- portion to have been .only what appears in the table as 7 to 8. Apply this to Dr. DAVENANT'S ac- count, and, fuppofing that by the word houfes he meant families, as is upon the whole moft probable, it will reduce the number of inhabitants at that pe- riod to about 5,771566. But were we to admit at once the accuracy of DAVENANT'S account, and that by the word hoiifcs, he really intended not families but the buildings that men lived in, and confequently that our people were fix millions, or even fix millions and a half; I have no doubt of adding fo much to the returns of the laft period (i. e.) between 1750 and 78, as amply to counterbalance thofe of the former period. And that we may proceed in thefe returns with the more eafe and clearnefs, I beg leave once more to place them immediately under the eye of the reader as ftated by our author.' Houfes ( 5? ) Houies returned in 1759 in 61 in 77 charged 679,1491678,915 682.077. uninhabited 24,904 25,628 19,396 cxcufed on account ) Qn of poverty $ 282,429^76,149 251,261 986,481 980,6921952,734 The Doftor fays that the fa returns have no ap- pearance of incredibility, but that they afford as flrong a proof of progrefiive depopulation as ac- tual furveys can give. For my part, I cannot but think they carry evident marks of inaccuracy on the very face r of them, and that they fuggeft the moft erroneous ideas of our population at thefe feveral periods. I might, in the firft place, take notice of the impropriety of admitting uninhabited houfes into a ftatement intended as a ground on which to form an eftimate of the r umber of people; and that it would lead us to an error of more than a hundred thou&nd in each of thefe periods. However, I pafs this over and proceed to obferve, that as they are he.re introduced they naturally lead us to be- lieve, contrary to the author's afifertion. that our numbers have been gradually incrcajing. In the year 1761 there were above 25,000 uninhabited houfes; but 1777 little more than 19,000. The natural conclufion is that the number of inhabit- ants, at the allowance of only 5 to a houfc, was augmented 30,000. By way of accounting for this, the Dofclor fays there was at this time a greater demand ( 53 ) demand for houfes. I fay fo too; but we differ extremely as to thofe who became the tenants. Into thefe fpare buildings / would put fo many human beings with their refpelive families; whereas he, I fuppofe, will make the monfter luxury to engrofs them all, without the addition of a {ingle individual. Leaving thofe to believe this, who can, I pafs on to another remark, which is this; Jt appears from thefe returns that the number of houfes excufed on account of poverty was fuc- ceffively diminijhcd; which is juft the contrary of what mil/I have been the cafe had the lifts been cor- ret. In the year 1761 there were above 5000 fewer exempted from this caufe than in the year 59, and ia 77 there were even 30,000 fewer. A ftriking evidence this of the incorreQnefs of the returns! It is allowed on all hands that the numbers, as well as diftreffes, of the poor, have greatly increafed fince the firft of thefe periods. If the returns therefore had been accurate, the number of houfes excufed on account of poverty muft have been greater and greater every year; juft the reverie of what appears in the annual lifts. Mr. EDEN, by way of anfwer to the Doctor's firft publication on this fubje6l, aflerts, without producing indeed any fatisfaftory evidence, that the return of cottages excufed on account of poverty is uncertain and defective. To this un- fupported affertion the Doftor has given no clear and ( 54 J and decifivc reply. He has indeed attempted it, but how fuccefsfully I leave the reader to deter- mine. The fingular manner in which he reafons for this purpofe is worth obfervation. In the firft place, he fays, the uncertainty in the returns of houfes not charged does not at all affect the evidence arifing from the diminution of the houfes charged. I muft beg the Doctor's pardon. The number of houfes charged, if correctly re- turned, muft decreafc in exact proportion to the intreafed number of poor ; fince every poor man, who either receives parochial alms, or is exempt- ed from contributing to parochial expences, is alfo exempted from paying the duty on windows and houfes. Now if the number of houfes thus excufcd on account of poverty be not accurately returned, the evidence arifing from the whole, muft be impaired precifely in proportion to that defect. Confequently this argument, or rather this appearance of an argument, for it is nothing more, entirely vanifhes. But it is obferved ,2dly " That the returns of thefe exempted cottages, have not been made with lefs care in 1777 than for 1761." With what care the returns have been made in either period, I mail not here flay to determine ; I muft, however, obferve that if they had each time only been made with the fame care ; the whole number of houfes returned .( 55 ) returned muft from the allowed gradual increafe of poverty, have been continually diminifhed. We are next informed that the diminution which has certainly taken place in the number of houfes charged, proves undeniably that there muft have been a proportionable decreafe in the houfes not charged. Now if I am not ftrangely miftaken it proves the direct contrary. If the number of houfes charged has decreafed, the only natural con- clufion is, that the number of houfes not charged has increafed, and that exactly in the fame pro- portion ; unlefs there is previoufly fomc abfolutc proof of the contrary. Thefc feveral appearances of inconfiftency ; thefe various prefumptive marks of incorrectnefs might induce a philofophic enquirerafter truth not to be over confident that they are any firm ground on which to creel; a demonftrative proof of pro-. greflive depopulation. But by purfuing this enquiry a little further we mail be convinced that the whole of our author's reafoning has not the fmalleft foundation in truth. We are informed that the decreafed returns of the furveyors afford as fatisfactory evidence of the decline of population amongft us as an actual cen- fus or numbering of the inhabitants could do. I muft beg leave to remark, by way of general pre- para- ( 56 ) paratory anfwer, that although thefc returns, when viewed in their true light, (as will appear here- after) afford a tolerable ground of juft compu- tation ; yet, as far as our author has thought pro- per to flate them, inftead of amounting to deci- five proof, they do not enable us to form even probable conjcdurc. The cafe with regard to thefe returns ftands thus. The parochial afleffors are required by aft of parliament annually to make out and return to the commiffioners of the land and window tax a lift of the dwellings chargeable with the duties on windows and houfes in their refpe6live pariflies, fpecifying the number of windows in each of thofe that have more than fix, and charging thofe which have only fix or under, with nothing but the 35. houfe duty. All the other dwellings inhabited by perlons exempted from the ufual taxes to church and poor, are exempted likewife from thefe du- ties, and are confcquently not required to be in- ferted in the annual parochial lifts or duplicates. If the affefTors do infert ,thern they do more than their duty ; which J fuppofe few of thefe gen- tlemen think necefiary. Thefe works of fupere- rogation fome of them however do perform ; but they are a very inconfiderablc part. I have received information from perfons in almoft every county in the kingdom upon this fubjecl; and they, in general, concur in alluring me that the unaffcifed houfes houfes in their annual returns are never mentioned or taken any notice of. Many of them have fa- tisfaftorily confirmed this by giving me the num- ber of houfes returned in their refpeclive pa- rimes, and the number of houfes not returned, nor ever appearing in any official lift whatever. My own immediate and peifonal refearches ex- actly correfpond with thefe accounts. I have examined, with confiderable care and attention, the parochial duplicates of whole divifions, not only for a few years now laft paft, but through almoft every year fince 1747. In about one pa- rim in 15 or 20 I have found the exempted cottages put by themfelves ; while in the reft they are never once mentioned. Indeed, the al of parliament itfelf, in the very ftrain and tenor of it, holds out peculiar mo- tives to omit as many as poffible. In fome other publick returns there are moft powerful induce- ments to accuracy. In the militia returns for in- ftance the conftable, if from private friendfhip or any other confideration he makes out a defi- cient lift of perfons liable to ferve, his neighbours will generally fet him right. For in exact pro- portion to this deficiency the chance to each in- dividual of being ballotted into actual triennial fervice is increafed. Hence thefe lifts in general, but efpecially in fmall country parifhes, where every man is known to his neighbour, are toU lerably. ( 58 ) lerably corre6l. Again with refpecl to the land- tax, if the alfeifor wifhe-s to lighten the burden of one neighbour, he cannot do it without increafing that of another; for the fame total fum mull at all events be railed. If he attempts it, therefore, that other will immediately exert himfelf to bring mat- ters back to their proper equality. But notwith- flanding thefe feveral judicious checks, it is very well known that wealth and greatnefs fo fuccefs- fully prevail over poverty and littlenefs, that there is often great incorre&nefs even in thefe returns. What ihall we fay then to the returns of the fur- veyors of the window lights, where a variety of motives muft operate both on them and the reit of the parifh to frequent connivance and omiffion ? Jf they exempt any perfon, not a {ingle individual pays a farthing the more ; not a fingle individual therefore will probably trouble himfelf about it. If they affefs the cottagers they will only bring an expence upon themfelves and the reft of the parifh by reducing them the fooner to the neceflity of parochial affiftance. Prudent parifhes, therefore, will take care to excufe as many as they con- veniently can. And when once exempted, they will foon vaniih out of the annual returns; and you will very feldom be able ever to find them there again. So that from the very nature of the al of parliament it is reafonable to fuppofe that there have always been a great number of houfes omitted in the annual returns, and that thefe omiflions, from ( 59 ) from the increafe of poverty, as well as other caufes above fuggefted, muft be perpetually increafmg. Thefe obvious conclufions of reafon arc con- firmed by indubitable fafts. I beg leave to produce a few inftances both of abfolutely deficient returns, and of the continued increafe of that deficiency. That they may be perfectly unexceptionable I will place them at hazard, without any motive for felec- tion, out of a great number of parimes from differ- ent counties. In the fequel, when I attempt to af- certain the prefent alual population of the king- dom, I mail prefent the reader with the whole 11 table. TABLE OF THE PRESENT ABSOLUTE DEFICI- ENCY OF RETURNS: . -,Y-.-;Ji, f ;:G, Counties. Parijhcs. ioufes re- Not re- Total. turned. turned. Eflex Thaxftead 102 248 3<5 Toppesfield 38 67 105 Lindfell 21 26 47 Sroxftead 42 50 . 9 2 Little Baddow 40 24 64 Suffolk Haverhill 55 9 1 146 Kent Bough ton 53 34 8 7 Hunton 39 3 2 7* Tudely 56 27 83 Maidftone 623 483 1106 Suflex Brightling 38 42 80 Catsfield 2 3 27 5<> Stafford Abb. Bromley 161 85 246 Old Swinford 414 1165 1579 Chefter Chefter 1227 1656 28% Burton 4i 54 95 From From the flighted infpeftion of this fhort table which I could eafily make five times as long, it is obvious that, upon an average, not half the houfes in the feveral places are returned by the parochial afleffors. Thefe deficient lifts are dcpofited with the clerks of the commiffioners to the land tax, copies of them are fent to the general furveyors for thedivifion or county; by whom they are tranf- mitted to the tax-office, and you may there be furnifhed with the aggregate deficient return for the whole kingdom. Thefe returns to the tax-office afford not the leaft idea, nor give the flendereft clue by which to determine the numbers omitted; confequently, inftead of amounting to dcmonjlrativc proof of our prefent flate of population, they are no ground, in themfelves confidered, and as far as ftated by our author, for even probable conjetture. ' : . ., ........ i ..i That the gradual decreafe in thefe returns is no proof of a gradual decreafe of inhabitants may be clearly concluded from the following fhort table. TABLE OF GRADUAL DECREASE. Counties. Part/lies. 1 7<55 59 61 65 77 80 Total. Effex Thaxftead 167 '57 140 39 108 102 ' < 3.50 Lindfell 3 2 22 22 22 21 21 47 Broxftead 49 49 49 47 4* 4 2 9 2 Kent Bonghton 70 63 74 72 68 5'6 87 Maidftone '747 703 6,56 656 651 6 33 62 3 | 1 106 There There is a gradual decreafe in the returns fof mod of thefe places, though there is actually the fame number of houfes in each refpectively, in fome of them more, than there were 25 years ago, and they are mod of them fuller of people than ever. What then becomes of this argument of gradual depopulation deduced from the gradual decreafe in the furveyors' returns ? For what ap- pears to have been the cafe with refpect to thefe few places, there is no reafon in the world to fup- pofe it is not equally applicable to thoufands of others, or even the kingdom at large ; which we fhould have been enabled to fee, had the clerks to the commiflioners been always careful to pre- ferve the annual returns. But as they have not, we can only make our deductions from analogy ; an analogy however compleatly fatisfactory, as there is not a fhadow of objection, or the fmalleft degree of probability againft it. Upon the whole then the furveyors' returns, in themfelves confidered, are no rule by which to compute the actual population of the kingdom; nor is their continual decreafe any evidence at all of a gradual diminution of people. The. general deficiency is the immediate and natural refult of the act of parliament itfelf ; and the gradual increafed deficiency, only proves, if it proves any thing, either the gra- dual increafe of poverty, or the gradual increafe of cunning, or as fome would rather call it, of F -wifdom ( 62 ) tuifdom and prudence in the parochial afleflbrs, or the pariflies at large. * SECT. * That there have, from time to time, been orders to re- turn the houfes of all denominations, whether charged or not charged, cannot be difputed. But how well thefe orders have been obeyed may be pretty cafily cenjeftured from the follow- ing letter which I have been favoured with, and which was written by a General Surveyor of the window lights in one of our principal counties. FEB. i, 1781. : The cottages have not been returned for many years till " laji year, and then many of the afleflors did not do it till " they came to the meeting, and fo gueffcd at it as near as they could ; fo that you ice they are far from being exaft." Here then it appears that there was no return of the cot- tages at all for many years till the year 1780. What then be- comes of that perfeft and compleat return in the year 1777, ^ " which we are told has no appearance of incredibility, and " which affords as ftrong a proof of progreflive depopulation " as actual fui veys can give ?" In the county above alluded to there w,us doubtlefs no return at all of collages for the year 1777; for three years cannot, I prefume, wiin much pro- priety, be called many years. And when there was a return (which return, by the way, I am aflured upon pretty good authority, was never taken an account of at the tax-office) the parochial furvcyors only gue/ftd at it ; and if there were only 40 or 50 houfes in their parifh they might, perhaps, guejs pretty near the matter ; but as to Lirge towns, in which there had been no previous enumeration, they could almoft as v.-:ll I a T told how many houfe? there are in Pekin or Conflantinople. An aclual furvey or the houfes in two very confiderable places, the town of Stourbridge and parifh of old Swinford in the county of Worccflcr, and the town and parifh of Maidftone in the county of Kent, has been taken this fpring. The total number in each, as well as thofe re- turned by the furveyors of the window lights, arc as follow ; No. f Appendix to the Eflfay on the Population, &c. p. 38. ( 63 ) C H A P. II. S E c T. I. Examination of Dr. PRICE'S Argument for Depopulation deduced from the decreafed Number of Burials in the London Bills of Mortality. WE may now proceed to the author's fecond argument of decreafed population dedu- ced from the decreafed number cf burials in the London bills of mortality. But I muft here beg leave firft of all to obferve that this, fuppofing it true, and fuppofmg likewife that population is to be eftimated from burials alone, without regard to laptifms, would only mew that London is decreafed; which would be fo far from proving that the reft of the kingdom was fo, that, if the Doctor's maxim of the deftruclive influence of great capitals be true, it might afford, perhaps, no inconfiderable prefumption that England was aclu- F 2 ally No. of Houfes returned Stourb ridge and Parifh ? ofoldSwinford Maidftone - - - - - - 1106 - - 623 If Dr. PRICE will produce a return of houfcs -nade at the tax-office Tor either of the fe places fmce the year 1760, in which the amount is within 200 of the truth for each of them refpeclively, I will give him up all the arguments I have ufed upon this fubjeft, and frankly acknowledge they are nothing to the purpofe. On the contrary, if he cannot produce fuch return, I fhall conclude that their force is unimpaired, and that his fyftem of depopulation, as for as built on reafoning deduced from this quarter, is fairly overturned, ( 64 ) ally advancing in numbers; that the inhabitants of the town were retired into ihe country; that they were there employed in ufcful manufactures; in attending to the healthful and important bufmefs of agriculture, and in moft fuccefsfully obeying the great command of increafe and multiply; in a word, that we were likely foon to become a populous, and flourifhing, a great and happy nation. This feems, on our author's principles, the natu- ral refult of the fuppofiiion of a decreafed metro- polisk It is a point, however, on which I lay no ftrefs; becaufe I well know that the fuppofition it- felf is not founded in truth. The number of burials, in the bills of mortality, on which alone his rea- foning is founded, is not lefs at prefent than at the revolution ; on the contrary, it is confiderably great- er. On an average often years immediately fubfe- quent to that period, they amounted to 21242,5 Whereas for ten years now laft paft the average annual number is 23340,5 6 exceeding the former 2098.0 But we are told there are two confiderations that more than counterbalance this. The ift. is, that fince the revolution there have been 12 new parifhes taken into the bills; and that in thefe 12 parifhes there were buried, in the years immediately fuc- ceeding thofe in which they were taken into the bills, 5000 annually. Now this 5000 we are to dedua ( 65 ) deduct, I fuppofe, from the prefent i rn. r annual lilt or and the remainder is only 18340,5 indicating a decreafe of 2902,0 Specious as this reafoning may feem at firft view, it will, if I miftake not, on a clofer examin- ation appear to be a mere fallacy. 'Tis true thefe pariflies did not come into the bills at the time of the revolution. And llrange it would have been if they had. For unlefs my information deceives me, thefe parijhes had then actually no cxiftencc. The fpace of ground, indeed, which they now comprehend was certainly juft where it is at pre- fent, but it had no diftinguifhing parochial name. The true ftate of the cafe, it feems, is this. When the number of inhabitants in the city of London was fo increafed that the old churches were inefficient to contain all who wifhed to aflemble for the wor- ihip of God, upon application to royal authority, new churches were erected; new parijhes were form- ed out of the old; new names were appropriated to them; new regijlers were likewife opened, each thenceforth containing its own refpective burials; and, if our author will take the pains to examine the bills of mortality at the particular periods when thefe changes took place, he will probably find that the burials of each old parifh were immediately di- imniflied in near proportion to the actual number F 3 of ( 66 ) of thofe of the refpeftive new parifhes taken out of it, and that the aggregate of all the diminutions in the old regifters is fully counterballanced by the total amount of numbers in the feveral new regiflers. Confequently the fuppofed addition to the bills becomes nothing more than an addition of names only. I beg leave to illuftrate this matter by, I believe, an exaQly parallel cafe. At the aera of the revolu- tion, the to-wnofDebtford contained only the parifli of St. Nicholas; and. its number of baptifms during twenty years at that period was 4^ 1 7 of burials 4817- After this the parifh was divided into two; and St. Paul's fprung out of St. Nicholas's. The new church immediately exhibited a very refpeftable lift of births and burials; while the old one was diminifhcd in exacl: proportion. Their refpeftive regifters for twenty years from 1758 (land thus; Baptifms. Burials. 3 8 35 49*7 Total 7181 8752 St. Nicholas 3211 St. Paul 3970 Although St. Nicholas therefore has not even yet quite recovered his priftine ftrength, yet when viewed ( 67 ) viewed in conjun&ion with St. Paul, he is more flourifliing than ever; even to almoft the double. The cafe, I prefume is, nearly the fame with the old and new pa rimes in the city of [London. But ftill we are told that the difcnters are greatly dt- creafed, and that from thence great acceffions have been annually made to the bills of mortality. Whether the feffcnttn of the city are increafed or dccrtajei, I mail not at prefent enquire. Our au- thor Jhould and probably does know this matter much better than I. The only thing to the pur- pofe is, whether their burials are more or lefs now than at the revolution. I believe, I may venture to aflert, that they are really not only more, but above three times more. Had this no other authority than my bare aflertion, it might fairly be thought incredible; but I can produce fuch authentic evi- dence as I flatter myfelf, will meet with ready belief. I do not know that we have any certain informa- tion as to the number of diffenting burials in the city at the asra of the revolution, nor at any time prior or fubfequent to that period, but in the year 1729; when Mr. MAITLAND, author of a very voluminous hiftory of the metropolis, collefted, with great induftry and care, a well authenticated lift" of their annual number. This gentleman, who feems ambitious to make our capital appear as large as pofiible, it will not be fufpecled would give F 4 this ( 68 ) this lift much below the truth. The only plaufible apprehenfion would be, that it was above it; to me, however, it carries fuch marks of honeft plainncfs that I fcruple not to believe it was very near the matter; and I will fuppofe too, and I know not any great improbability in the fuppofition, that the diflenting burials were as numerous in 1729 as in 1688. If then another annual lift of thefe bu- rials, of equal authenticity can be obtained for the prefent time, the point in queftion will be afcertain- edwith fatisfa6lory precifion. Such a lift has been made out, with equal induftry, and, I believe with equal accuracy of inveftigation and fidelity of re- port, in this very month of March 1781. Mr. MAITLAND's LIST OF DISSENTING BURIALS NOT ENTERED IN THE BILLS OF MORTALITY IN THE YEAR 1729. BAPTIST. In Mill Yard 28 Sheer-Alley, White-Street - - - - 21 Collier's Rents, White-Street - 22 Glafs-Houfe-Yard, Pick-ax-Street - - - 5 Bandy- Leg- Walk, Southwark - - - - - 51 Broad-Street, Wapping ------16 Peppermint-Street, Southwark - 47 Independents ..----- 118 PRESBYTERIAN. Tindal's Burying-Grqund, Bunhill-Fields, 500 828 DISSENT" DISSENTING BURIALS in the Year 1780, BAPTIST. No. Britain's Ground in Church-Lane, ) White-Chapel $ Langfords Ground. Church Lane. 100 Gothland's Ground, Holywell Mount 600 Brown's, Horfeley Down. Soutnwark 36 Wallin's Ground, May's Pond 75 Crawford's Oround, Ewer-Street in the Mint .153 Mrs. Newton s, Pepper-Street 5 Matlock s, -St. George's, Ratcliff-Highway 40 1329 PRESS YTERIAN. Dr. Watfon's Ground, Deadman's Place 160 Tindal's Ground, Bunhill-Fields. Total Prefoyterian 1560 INDEPENDANT. Cartwright's Ground. Snow-Fields ao Roger's Ground, Collier's-Rents, Long- Lane 70 Total Independent 80 Total of diflenting burials in 1780, 3 lf ^9 In 1729, - 828 Increafe 2341 Upon a co.mparifon of thefe two lifts it appears that the dillenting burials, in the moil confined, fenfc o J fenfe of the -word diffenter. inftead of being dc- creafed. as the Do6lor intimates, are more than three times as many as they ufcd to be. If we add the amount in each period to thofe in the bills refpeftively, we mail fee the fum total of the city burials, as far, at leaft, as appears from this quarter, and the. proportion they bear to each other, at the two periods. i ft period 2 d period Burials annually in the bills 1 3 > 21242 23340 on an average of 10 years ) Diffentirig burials - - 828 3169 Total in each 21070 26509 The latter period exceeds the former - 4439 Or if you even take the average only of the 3 laft years, in the latter period, as, for reafons that will more fully appear hereafter, is but fair, the account will ftand thus. Annual number in the bills on an average of 10 years in the firft period On an average of 3 years in the fecond DirTenting burials in each i ft period ad period 21242 828 20668 3 l6 9 Totals 22070 The latter period exceeds the former 23837 1767 When When I endeavour to afcertain the relative po- pulation of the city, I (hall prefent another lift of deficiencies of various kinds and from various quarters, much longer than that now given. E- nough is here produced to eftablifh our prefent point, which is. that our author's proof of depo- pulation deduced from the bills of mortality, like the former deduced from the official returns of houfes, is abfoiutely nothing at all ; its fuppofed foundation has no exiftence, and the fuperftruc- ture endeavoured to be raifed upon it, of courfe fails to the ground. C A H P. III. SECT. I. Excwination of Dr. PRICED Argument of D-.pnbuLitioii deduced from the deer e of ed t : wd Pi oduce of the hereditary and tern- ' v Excife. AT H I R D proof of depopulation is drawn -om the decreafed annual produce of the hereditary and temporary excife. If this be admitted as a foundation on which to build an eftirnife of the increafe or decreafe of people, one mi^K. deduce con. iufions, even from the Doctor's, own i'hitemrnt o*' the extracts from the excife books, the moft extravagant and incredible. That I may not mifreprefent this matter, I will give his whole table of extracts, page 47. Annual ( 72 ) Annual average of 3 ) ,_ years ending at ) Two years ending at - 1699 381,886 43 8 >573 473-799 1710 449,666 17*9 59 : 37 495 749 1753 5 2 7.-9i _ _ __ _ 17 6i 57,5,280 Of four years ending at 1768 527,991 1774 5 20 > 6l 3 1778 554,460 From this table it appears that the annual produce for three years ending at :68g \vas ^.740,147 and for two years endingat 1699 only 381.886 and confequently, by a fair application of the Dr's. argument, at leaft as ftated in this table, the in- habitants of the kingdom, in the courfe of ten years, were decreafed almoft one half; a circum- ftance too extravagant for the moft credulous to believe. This is a ftrikipg inftance of the infuf- fkienry of averages taken from Jlwrt, periods, to form any fatisfaftory eftiinate upon. But fuppofe we try it by the tefl of averages deduced from long pmods the only way, in this cafe, of forming any rational eftimate at all (even allowing the in- formation from this quarter of any importance, \vhicli ( 73 ) which we (hall prefently mew it really is not,) how will the matter then ftand ? The average pro- duce from 1686 to 1710, that is for 24 years was . 488,808. And the average from 1751 to) o u r 501,087. 1778, that is for 27 years, was ) Which, upon the affumed mode of reafoning, would indicate a fmall increafe of population. Should we begin the former period at 1693, the average of 17 years would be 435.981 And the latter in the year 1759 the ) r u u C average tor 19 years would be ) Confequently the augmentation of inhabitants more than one fifth. Should this kind of arguing be admitted, therefore, upon the faireft, and moft unexceptionable ufe of it, it would turn againft our author. But the truth is, no argument to eftablifli the comparative number of people at different peri- ods can be deduced from fuch precarious change- able premifes. Could the real confumption of any article at different seras be accurately afcer- tained from the produce of the excife, (which I prcfume, however, cannot always be done) it would ftill authorize no conclufion as to the rela- tive number of inhabitants ; unlefs it was firft proved that that article was at both periods, in the fame degree of common ufe. I will ( 74 ) I will inftance in two mod unexceptionable arti- cles, and at prefent of more univerfal consumption than perhaps any other; I mean wheat and beef. In the northern parts of the kingdom there is, at leaft, ten times as much of thefe annually confumed as formerly. An ingenious man from this quarter, an$ of diflinguifhed accuracy of obfervation, fays, in a very obliging letter he has favoured me with, " Wheat, which is the bread now very generally " ufed, a hundred years ago, was rarely to be (: found, even in the houfes of our gentry. In a " fmall market town, called Ravenglafs, at the " martinmas feafon, when the country lays in their * winter ftores, they now will (laughter 200 black *' cattle, whereas 60 years fmcc they did- not kill " ten." The cafe, I am affured, is fimilar to this, in all the counties of the north; and from the whole taken together, it may be fairly concluded, that they now confume ten, if not twenty times as much leff and wheat as their forefathers did at the time of the revolution. Our author will perhaps fay, that all this increafed confumption is occafion- ed by the enormous growth of luxury; for my part, I can only view it as a pleafing evidence of the increafe of induflry, the Improvements in agri- culture, and the bleflings of heaven, which feldom fail to attend them. But however we may differ in this particular, there is a circumftance in which I am fure we perfectly agree ; and that is, that this increafed confumption of wheat and oxen is no evi- dence ( 75 ) dence of a proportionable incieafe of men and women. And yet, unlefs I am ilrangely miibken, it would be a conclufion altogether as juft as the contrary one deduced from the decrcafed produce of the fared < 7 and temporary excife. For with regard even j beer, the moft unexceptionable objecl of this excife, it would argue a ftrange ignorance of the ufages of the middling and lower ranks of peo- ple among us, to fuppofe that it is nearly fo com- mon and univerfal a beverage, in country towns, villages, and parifhes, efpecially in the maritime counties, as it was before the fo general introduc- tion of fmuggkd jpirits and fmuggled tea. It has been proved to the houfe of commons, upon pretty fatjsfaclory evidence, that the contraband trade in thefe articles, annually deprives the revenue of nearly two millions fterliug.* Now fubftitute the ufe * That this account is not exaggerated may be clearly feen from the following detail, which I am allured is^f indubitable authenticity. In the year 1777 there were 2,500,000 gallons of geneva imuggled from Dunkerciur- ; and i ,500,000 from Holland and other ports; in 'all 4,000.000; which at ss. Gd. per gallon, is , 500,00$ N. B. Hollands's geneva on importation pay's 3, duty of 75. sd. per gallon, whereas the duty in this calculation is only 25. 6d. that being nearly the duty paid for corn ipirits made in England. Rum fmuggled from Guernfey and other ports, 800,000 gallons, which at 55. per gallon is 2OO,oe* Brandies fmuggled from different ports in France, Guernfey, Holland, and Germany, 2,000,000 gal- lons, at 75. per gallon. - . 700,00* In the year 1 778 there were 10.000,000 Ib. of tea fmuggled into England, which on the average duty of 2s. iod. per Ib. is - , - i,5%3>333 The total amount is ( 76 ) ufe of one or the other of thefe in the room of beer, as they notorioufly arc fubllituted by great num- bers of the poorer people, and there may be a very confiderable decreafe in the confumption of this article, without giving rife to any apprehen- fion of a diminution of people. If we afcend from thefe lower claffes to the next fuperior ranks, the farmers and tradefmen, we mail find that although good ale be ftill in ufe in their private houfes, yet, that when they meet for the mutual tranfaftion of bufinefs or for fociety, thofe who were once con- tent with a pot of good October, muft now have their bottle of wine or bowl of punch. All thefe circumftances duly confidered, and that the public confumption of beer notwithftariding is not greatly diminished, from hence alone arifes a ftrong pre- fumption that our number of people, inftead of being leflened, muft be greatly increafed. SECT This I have from the author ef " Obferva^'ons on fmuggling humbly fubmitted to the confederation of the right honourable the houfe of peers and thf honourable the houfe of commons in parliament aflembled, in 1779," ever}' article of which, he aflures me, may be proved on the moft fatisfaftoiy evidence. Befides all this, I may, from the fa-DC authority, remark, that there are at this very time fome thoufands of private ftills in London and its environs that work prodigious quantities of fpirits, which are confumed without paying any duty ; and that this very King's Town and parifh of Maidftone ufes at prefent upon an average 7oolb. of ftr.uggled tea in a week. This I pre- fume will pretty well fupply the place of the ancient morning draught, and ev?n afternoon refreshment. And it is likcwife to be remembered that half this, at leaft, is confumed, not as an article of luxury, but as a common beverage; and, even further, that the fanners on our fea coafts, v -o in former days ufcd to regale their haivcft men with good ocer, now give them gin or brandy. N. B. The duties on geneva, &c above fct at 25. 6d. by the additional duties on fpirits, aie now upwards of 3^. 6d. C 77 ) SECT. II. Diminution of the Number of Victuallers.. TT^ H E diminution of the number of our JL alien our author contends, p. 21, is likewife " a fact of particular confequence to eftablifh " his point; becaufe victuallers include all that " keephoufes for felling ftrong liquors." I am ready to grant that this fact is altogether of as much im- portance to confirm his general alfertion as thofe he had before adduced; but whoever really thinks it of any importance at all, will be much deceived. In all fmuggling counties, \vheretheufe offpiri- tuous liquors is moft frequent, it is notorious, that almoft irf every country parifh there are two or three private unlicenfed brandy Jhops at which five times as much of that liquor, and of thofe of a fimilar kind, are conftantly fold as at the public houfe by the licenced victualler. SECT. III. The Eafe with which King WILLIAM raifed, Troops. OUR author further obferves, p. 22, " that he " cannot help mentioning, as an additio- '' nal fact, indicating a particular degree " of populoufnefs at the revolution^ that King G William ( 78 ) " William wanting, in 1689, to raife 23 new " regiments for the war in Ireland, the levies *' were compleated in fix weeks." In anfwcr to this, it may be fufficient to remark, that the eafe with which foldiers are raifed in any country, is, of itfelf and unconnected with other circumflances, no indication of populoufnefs at all: Towards the clofe of Maryborough's glorious campagnes againft the French, Lewis the XlVth might foon have had the 4th part of the kingdom of France in his ar- mies, if he could but have clothed paid and fed them. And were Great Britain now reduced to the fame deplorable fituation, which, thank God, is far from being the cafe, George the Hid at the i ft beat of the drum, might find a full quarter of his fubje6ts moft ready volunteers. Deflroy our commerce, turn our manufacturers out of employment, and bid the plough ftand Hill, and in two months time, even though our population were much lefs than it really is, you might raife an army, not only of 23 re- giments, but of 23 times 23; provided you could put clothes on their backs, money in their poc- kets, and food in their mouths. Upon the whole, then, neither the fpcculative. arguments urged by the Doftor to evince the de- population of this country, nor the flofitivf proofs he has brought to eftablifh the fact, afford the fmallcft derive of rational conviction. As they were however fo fcrionfly and confidently urged by ( 79 ) by a writer of fo much diftinBion, I fhould hardly have ventured to have called them' in queftion, had I not pofitive evidence to produce that the truth of the cafe is dire&ly contrary to his afiertion* This pofitive evidence I now proceed to lay be- fore the reader: Go PART PART. III. Proofs of increafed and increajing Popu- lation. HAVING fhewn as I conceive in the two pre- ceding parts, that there is no rcafon to con- clude, either from fpeculative arguments, or pofitive evidence, that this kingdom has been, as Dr. PRICE afTerts, wafting away by a gradual depopulation From the revolution to the prefent time, I fhall now endeavour to eftablifh on what I think very folid grounds the direttly oppofite do6lrine ; viz. that the number of our inhabitants has been for many years paft in a ftate of progref- five increafe, and particularly that it is now much larger than it^vvas at the time of the revolution. The moft compleat and fatisfaftory mode of af- certaining this point would have been an aclual enumeration of the people, or at leaft of the houfes at thefe two different periods; but government never having thought fit, (for what rcafon I know not) to adopt this obvious method, we muft be content with fuch other means of calculation as are within our reach. Now the moft authentic fource of information next after this which prefents itfelf, is the evidence of parifh regifters. And this I firfl. fought for in the the regiftries of feveral diocefes. But I foon found that except in a few "inftances, of which I have availed myfelf, but little fatisfa&km was to be ex- pefted from this quarter. My next application therefore was to the clergy themfelves for extracts from the regiiters of their refpeclive parifhes. And here I muft with the greateft gratitude acknowledge that I have been favoured with,a large number of extracts, and much ufeful information, collected with accuracy, and communicated with liberality. There are, it muft be acknowledged, feveral circumftarces which (as fome of my ingenious cor-r refpondents have very juftly obferved) may fome- times affeQ: the force of regifter evidence. But after cpnfidering them with a good deal of atten,- tion, there is only one, which, in the prefent enquiry, appears to me of any great importance; and that is, the different degrees of healthinefs, or to fpeak with more precifion, the different degrees of mortality at the two periods between which we mean to form a comparifon. Both the baptifms and burials of one period may be confiderably more than at the other, and yet the real popula- tion, or the actual number of living inhabitants, may be lefs. Now it will I think be readily ac- knowledged that this circumflance is greatly in fa- vour of the prefent time compared with the aera of the revolution. Confiderable improvements (as J have before obferved) have taken place in the G 3 cleanlinefs eleanlinefs and airinefs of our towns, ftreets and houfes, and the general treatment of difeafes of almoft every kind. Thefe and many other caufes which will readily occur to every thinking man, muft have preferved the lives of prodigious numbers ; and whoever will take the pains to confult the pa- rifli regifters, either of large and populous towns, or even in fmallcr villages and country parimes, and compare their tcilimony at different periods with that of aclual enumerations, will, if I am not much miftaken, find abundant proofs of this facl. I have had an opportunity of making very minute enquiries into this circumftance in the towns of Braintree in EfTex and Maidftone * in Kent, and the refult is an ample confirmation of the pofition here advanced. The detail would be too tedious and unimerefting to lay before the reader ; and therefore I mall only add that I have very good reafons for ftating the average proportion of di- miniihed mortality in great towns at about i-4th, in country parifhes at i-ioth and on a combination of both at more than i-8th,t. Should it then even appear from the regiflcr extracts (which it moft * Judging from regifter evidence alone the town of Maid- rtor.c is not increafcd above one twentieth, fmcc the revo- lution . whereas it is manifeft by aftual furvcys made at the two periods, that it is incrcafed more than i-4th ; which dif- ference evidently arifes from the different degrees of morta- lity at the two periods. r With refpeft 1o country parifhes, Mr. A R T H r R Y o u N c, in fome papers which he has favoured me \vuli, has given a curious detail of the gradual increafc of health.- C 83 ) moft certainly does not,) that the number of bap- tifms and burials at the revolution was even an eighth more than thofe of the prefent time, yet ftill the living population would be nearly the fame. SECT. T. Regifter Evidence applied to afcertain the relative Population of the City oj London. HE R E we muft have recourfe to the bills of mortality which exhibit to us in one view, the regifter evidence refpe&ing London. And from thefe it appears that the medium annual G 4 average >i9ff|}u8. .^.k^a%j healthinefs in the parjfii of North Runclon in the county of Norfolk, during the 150 years now immediately paft, by which it appears that its degree of mortality in the courfe of that period has been diminiihed almoft i~5th, and which he afcribes to the better living of the poor. A ftriking inftance to the fame purpofe in the parifh of Great Chart, near Afhford in the county of Kent, has been fcnt me. Its burials in a period of twenty years immediately fubfequent to the revolution were 192 but almoft 100 of them were occafion- ed by the fmall-pox ; whereas in 20 years beginning with i 760, there appears to have been only 4 or 5 who died of that diforder; This diminution my ingenious correfpondent im- putes to inoculation, and adds " that no regifter can, as yet, 1 properly inform us of the thoufands that have been pre- : ferved by this falutary practice for thefe 20 years paft all : over the kingdom. As they have been chiefly infants and ' young people they are or dinarily too young to die, and fcarcc ' yet old enough to marry ; but they are latent in focicty, and " will greatly fwell both regifters in due time." Thefe in- ftances alone mav induce the reader to believe that the aboi't gf, of diminiflied mortality is not let too high. average of the births and burials for 10 ) years beginning with the year 168 1 is ) For the fame number of years beginning ) with the year 1771 is ) ^55* This mews an increafe of 1 j955> or about one tenth; which fuppofing the bills equally accurate at both periods, and that the healthinefs of the city and every other circum- ftance remained nearly the fame, would enable us to afcertain, the relative degree of population. But in thefe refpe&s there is a prodigious de- ficiency. .''< With regard to the bills I have already noticed their deficiency as far as it is occafioned by the burials of that part of the diflenters, ufually com- prehended under the feveral denominations of Prefiyterians, Independents, and Baptifts. But there are other fe&s, fuch as Quakers, Methodifls, Moravians, &c. whofe annual burials, which are not entered in the bills of mortality, are as follows, in 1729 in 1780 Quakers 245 117 Puckeredge's Ground, Baker's Row, White-chapel, a reputed Quaker, but his Ground com- ^ mon SABBATARIAN. Noble'sGround.MillYardjGood- ) 2O man's Fields ) Morgan's Ground ( 85 ) Methodifts, &c Northampton Chapel 2080 Worfhips Ground, Mile End 138 Wefley's new Ground, Moorfields 41 In the burialGround atWhitfield's > Tabernacle $ Totals 245 2743 Increafe 2498 FOREIGN DISSENTING BURIALS. Dutch Chapel, Auftin Friars 3 Lutheran Chapel, Savoy 22 German Calviniftical ditto 6 Lutheran Church 4 Total 35 In Maitland's Lift 21 Increafe 14 JEWISH BURIALS. Dutch Jews, Mile End 100 Portuguefe ditto . 125 At Hoxton- Square, from the ) Hamburgh Synagogue ) Total 240 In Maitland's Lift 125 Jncreafe 115 ( 86 ) But befides diflenting and jewifh burials, which never enter the annual bills, there is a vafl num- ber of others under the fame predicament. The firft I mall (hew the reader are thofe of St. Paul's cathedral, St. Peter in Vmculo, or Tower of London Church, the Rolls Chapel, the Charter Houfe, the Temple Church, Lincoln s-Inn, Wcjlminjlcr- Abbey and Cloi/lers. From moft of thefe places, by the very aclive refearches of a moft obliging friend, I am furnifhed with the regifter extrafts, both at the revolutional period and the prefent ; and with regard to the reft, which are indeed comparatively inconfiderable, the accounts arc derived from the communication of perfons well qualified in every refpecl to give authentic intelligence. AVERAGE of ANNUAL INTERMENTS AT THE REVOLUTION AND AT PRESENT AT THE FOL- LOWING PLACES. i ft period, zd period. St. Paul's ~~**'KTf ;77 r no regifter. 2 Tower Church during 177 years? ^ only. 11 3 Charter-Houfe 8 8 Temple Church 13 15 Liricoln's-Inn 3 if Weftminfter Abbey and CloiRers 16 12 Let Let us next go to the hofpitals, which make fo magnificent a figure in our capitar, and of which far the greater part has rifen up long fincc the revplution. The total amount of the burials from thefe which do not enter into the bills of mortality, I cannot precifely afcertain. In thofe hofpitals from which I have received fatisfa&ory information they are as follows. i ft period. 2d period. In St George's 95 Guy's about 80 120 Bartholomew's 150 80 285 Increafc 365 Thefe are all the accounts that I can depend upon. Thofe others, however, which Mr. Mah> land has inferted in his lift of 1729, amount to about 45, which I will fuppofe were nearly t}ie lame as the annual average both at the revolu- tion and now. thefe added to the former make the whole of the hofpital burials for the two periods ftand thus. i ft period. 2d period. Increafe 285 Ye ( 88 ) We have hitherto only fought for the dead with- in the limits of the city; we will now extend our enquiries to the villages around it, where we mall fiiid no inconliderable number. The change that has taken place in this refpeft, during the prefent century, is allowed on all hands to have been pro- digious. Modern luxury, or modern vanity, call it which you pleafe, fend out their multitudes both alive and dead, which ancient fimplichy. or ancient poverty confined, both in life and death, to the fame fmoky fpot. The perfon who a hundred years ago would have contented himfelf with lodgings, or at moft a (ingle houfe, muft now have a magnificent building in town, and a- noiher of equal elegance in the country. The greater part of his family are chiefly in the rural manfion, where he himfelf paffes his nights, and only repairs to the city for the tranfaftion of his commercial affairs by day ; and if he himfelf, his family, or any of his domeftics, fall fick, they are probably nurfcd in the country, and if they die are there buried. To thefe we may add thofe multitudes which annually fwarm from this immenfe hive, into al- moft every part of the kingdom, to Bath, Tun- bridge, Scarborough, and other places of general refort, which modern wealth has opened on all fides. Others mean time, crofs the channel and vi- fit our neighbours in France, Flanders, Germany, &c Many of both thefe, whether their excurfions were made for the recovery of health, or mere diffipatioa and amufement, come back no more, but die and are buried in fome diftant part of their native land, or in foreign countries. From all thefe caufes the external burials of London muft be incomparably more numerous than in former days ; efpecially fo long ago as the revolution. It would be to little purpofe to at- tempt to afcertain the total number of the various kinds above alluded to. The utmoft we can hope to know, with any degree of certainty and precilion, are thofe which annually take place in the villages round London to the diftance of ten or twelve miles. Mr. MAITLAND found them even in the year 1729 confiderably more than a thoufand. It is probable that this is three times as much as they were at the revolution ; and it is equally probable that fince that time they have been increafed three times more : this has certainly been the cafe with regard to fome of the moft confiderable of them; I mean Pancras, Paddington and Marybone, as appears from the regifters of thofe three places. From fome other parifhes, I am affured that their burials, which are very numerous, are nearly half of them from London. I am convinced there- fore that 3000 would not be too great an allowance for the prefent annual burials of the city of Lon- don ( 9 ) don in the circumjacent villages. As I wifh, however, to be rather below the mark than alm*e it, I will fet them only at 2000 I will alfo admit that at the revolution ) 500 they were 3 Which is probably more than the truth, there will remain ^5 for the excefs of thefe annual interments of the city in the neighbouring villages beyond what they were at the revolution. The burials from the Eaft India Company's Clips are now annually 500 Iii the year 1729 (when they were pro-} bably much more than at the revo-/" *98 lutiou) they were only Increafe 302 The prefent annual executions, on an average of 8 years the humane Mr. Howard informs us are _- _-_ 34 In Mr. Maitland's lilt they are only - 24 Increafe 10 We have hitherto fought the deficiencies of the bills of mortality in the manfions of the dead. We will now enter on a more agreeable fearch, and give the reader the pleafure of finding them likewife (to ufe a feemingly inconfiltent expreflion) in the houfes of the living. Many of that clafs of humari beings who ufcd to be annually doomed to certain death. death, are now as conftantly preferved, to enjoy the blefling of life, and to be of future fervice to their country. In the year 1767, in confequence of the humane fuggeftionsof Mr. JON AS HAN WAY, an aft of parliament was patted obliging the parifh officers of the cities of London and Weflminfter to fend their infant poor to be nurfed in the country at proper diftances from town. Before this bene- volent meafure took place, not above i in 24 of the poor children received into the work-houfes lived to be a year old; fo that out of 2800, the average annual number' admitted, 2690 died. Whereas fince, only about 450 die in the work- houfes, (where by the acl: they are to be only three weeks,) and 150 in the country; which makes in all 600. Thofe. however, who die in the country are no part of our prefent enquiry. The dimi- nution of the burials in London only is the object of our refearch. And it is manifeft that by the regu- lations of this act they were diminifhed 2240 in the very firft year after its palling. But this is not all. I am allured that before the expiration of the fe- cond year far the greater part of the fmall remain- der of children ufed not uncommonly to be dead likewife. So that we may fairly reqkon that the London burials in the sd year after this act took place were lefTened above 2300. This diminution * o muft have {till continued to go on till the return of the children into the city; which by the law is not, I think, ( 92 ) think, to be before they are fix years old. However, as fome of them, it muft be acknbwleded, certainly come back to their mothers long before that, we will only fuppofe that the 2300 was the annual di- minution, during the firft fix years after the com- mencement of the aft, that is, from the year 1767 to 1773. After the return of the children, as fome of them muft die, this diminution muft have gradually decreafed from the year 1773 inclufive to the prefent time. I will admit that this decreafe now amounts to 200, and the remainder 2100 will Ihew the prefent annual diminution in the burials of ihe bills of mortality from the falutary regula- tions of this act of parliament.* Thefe muft doubtlefs be taken into the eftimate of the relative population of the city from its bu- rials. And after we have taken an account of them as fuppofed to be de-ad, we are to remember that moft of them are ftill alive; and that inftead of con- cluding from this diminution in the bills, that the inhabitants are decreafed upwards of 40,000, they they arc nearly 25,000 increafed. I cannot here flay to make thofe reflections which the feelings of humanity would naturally fuggeft, and which the lover of his country muft gladly indulge. I muft haften * I cannot too thankfully acknowledge the obliging civility, as well as minute prccifion and accuracy, with which Mr* HAN WAY communicated the fubfbnce of the above informa- tion. If I have deduced any falfe conclufions from it, made it the ground of fallacious rcafoning or fallen into any miftake relative to it, he will not a little increafc the obligation already conferred if he will be kind enough to correci me. I 93 ) haften to prefent the reader, in one collective view, with the whole lifts of burials not entered in the bills of mortality, and of thofe which would have been entered but for the humane and judicious regulations of this aci of the legiflature. DEFICIENCIES IN THE BILLS of MORTA- LITY AT THE REVOLUTION AND AT PRESENT. i ft Period. 2d Period Diffenting burials 828 3169 Foreign Diflenting ditto 21 35 Quakers 245 117 Reputed Quakers 16 Sabbatarian 26 Methodifts, &c. 2701 Jews 125 240 In Weftminfter Abbey, St. Paul's, &c. 48 50 In hofpitals 125 285 In the neighbouring villages 500 2000 In the E. India Corn's fervice abroad 198 500 Executions 24 34 Prevented by Mr. Hanway's aft of Pmt. 2 100 Total 2114 11273 Add thefe two fums to the number of burials in the bills of mortality at the two periods refpefctively and the account will appear thus, ift Period 2d Period Burials included in the bills 21124 20668 Out of the bills 2114 11273 Total 23238 31941 H Increafe 8703 Suppofing therefore the city juft as healthy now as at the revolution, its population is increafed more than i-4th. But it is a pleafing truth, which Dr. PRICE himfelf is ready to acknowledge, that, the circumftance of healthinefs is greatly in favour of the prefent time. It may be rho'ught, at fir.il fight, that the heahhinefs of London is more increafed than that of country towns ; and, as far as it has been occafioned by widening of ftreets, taking down of figns, removing obllruftions, and promoting a fuller and freer circulation of frefh air, it is pro- bably true. But it muft be remembered that the diininifhed mortality of the latter appears to be chiefly owing to the falutary practice of inocula- tion ; whereas, in the former, for want ofuniverfality, it has hitherto been of little advantage. On an average of ten years *ift paft, as appears from the bills of mortality, the number of perfons annually dying of the fmall-pox is confiderably more than in the fame compafs of time immediately fubfe- quent to the revolution. In provincial towns and villages, as foon as this diforder makes its appear- ance, inoculation takes place amongft all ranks of people ; the rich and poor, from either choice or neceflity, almoll inftantJy have recourfe to it ; and where two or threa hundred ufed to be carried to their graves in the courfe of a few months, there are now perhaps not above 20 or 30. At London the cafe, I prefwne, is far different ; a few are inoculated, and. perhaps, the infection by their means is communicated to thoufands, who might other- f 95 ) otherwife have efcapcd the difeafe as long as they lived. But although, for thefe reafons, the dimi- nifhed mortality of the capital may not be fo con- fiderab'c as that of country towns ; I believe it will not be thought an extravagant fuppofition that its degree is at leaft one tenth, the ratio above laid down for the whole kingdom. This, added to the prcfent annual number of burials, will mew the po- pulation to be increafed fmce the revolution nearly one third ; and that its a&ual amount cannot be lefs than between feven or eight hundred thoufand ; even exclufive of Pancras and Marybone, and perhaps fome other places, which may juftly be comprehended under the general idea of our ca- pital, and are chiefly the growth of modern times, and would probably give us an addition of fifty or fixty thoufand. * Having thus difcovered that our metropolis is not in a ftate of depopulation we may proceed with courage to inferior places. The heart of the em- pire is found, and we may hope its limbs are healthy and vigorous. Let us then take a view^of its nearer parts ; I mean the immediate vicinity of London, to the diftance of eight or ten miles. Which way the courfe of population has here been, the follow- ing regifter extracts, for the two periods in quellion, will pretty clearly mew. H 2 BAPTISMS * From the above detail it muft be extremely obvious, that by computing the number of inhabitants in London from the prefent wretchedly imperfeft bills of mortality alone we fall fhort of the truth considerably more than one third ; perhaps very little lefs than three hundred thoufand fouls. ( 96 ) BAPTISMS AND BURIALS IN THE VILLAGES ROUND LONDON FOR TWO PERIODS OF TWENTY YEARS EACH, THE FIRST BEGINNING ABOUT THE REVOLUTION, THE SECOND WITH THE YEAR 1758 60, OR 61. Firft Period. Second Period Paridies. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Clapham 340 400 720 1080 Deptford - - 4618 4817 7191 8951 Streatham 403 448 645 951 Woodford 394 410 704 762 Kenfmgton 1734 2514 2419 3571 Eltham 515 575 731 864 Tooting 139 132 283 328 Fulham 1 434 1640 1793 253 1 Hammerfmith J ^53 1816 2011 2542 Chifwick -'"' 967 1286 1715 2354 Greenwich 3754 3755 5125 5924 Wai th am Row 666 778 877 1125 Dulwich 149 60 523 408 Highgate Chapel 591 219 768 304 Chelfea 1109 *347 2720 4746 Wanftead -'" 156 197 289 462 St. Pancras 539 1281 809 6063 Camberwell 688 965 1549 2681 Weftham - *2O5 1662 3161 3811 Bromley 711 771 1087 1143 Lewifham 707 793 1195 J 39^ Lee ( 97 ) Lee - - - - Paddington Wandfworth Stoke Newington Kentifti Town Total 20782 31342 39383 66276 The burials muft here be thrown intirely out of the queftion, on account of the number of them from London. If we judge then by the baptifms alone the population of thefe parifhes now and immediately fubfequent to the revolution is as 39383, 1020782, or nearly doubled; and if we make the addition of i-ioth for the ratio of dimi- ni med mortality, confiderably more fo. We will now extend our enquiry further into the country and take a view of fome of the prin- cipal parts of the kingdom. And firft let us ex- amine the fertile and populous county of Kent, H 3 KENT. KENT. Firft Period. Second Period. Parifhes. Deptford - Tudely T. Sutton Chart - Goudhurft Chatham Stroud Shorne Otham Staplehurft Cranbrook Farningham Horton Kirby Brenchley Seal Sevenoaks- Yalding Sutton near Dart- ) ford $ Boughton Malhcrb Aylesford Burram Wouldham - Lee - - Bromley - Chiflehurft - . Bapt, Bur. Bapt. R...-. 4617 4817 7181 8, '2 106 57 277 i 7 a 254 186 265 221 164 130 192 105 783 75^ 910 603 4080 4417 5582 5622 986 1123 "99 1405 288 404 322 385 93 74 *55 145 321 33 6 4% 388 880 1196 1202 1178 104 116 2l6 1 9 8 164 154 196 1 3 8 6 33 486 849 492 338 aG8 57 6 468 1150 97 6 M39 1264 470 385 888 578 211 209 308 288 117 loo 209 99 3 l8 312 458 328 75 40 67 53 60 66 102 56 93 138 "5 593 711 771 1087 "43 296 287 421 ( 99 ) Parifhes Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. St. Mary Cray 183 200 322 282 Lewifham - 77 793 1J 95 *39 8 Weft-Wickham - 117 14* *74 *97 Beckenham - 239 223 444 531 Pembury 194 l6 3 28 9 22 3 Laybourne - 72 47 129 74 Boxley - 45 37 54 2 45 2 Sandwich 1765 1865 1408 1229 Eaftry - 300 211- 371 254 Lenham 4 2 3 344 86 9 549 Tenterden 563 669 873 725 Crayford ~ 295 337 696 621 Dodington 74 5 2 1 94 *3 S Wkkling 41 28 74 43 Mereworth - 173 115 304 196 Harrietfham - 181 160 274 177 Weft Farleigh ,85 66 128 102 Teflon 48 47 6 7 75 Cuxton - - 71 95 112 75 Rochefter St. Ni- > l6 226l l66l cnolas ) St. Margaret 1261 1042 984 1038 Hunton - - 148 108 233 192 Eaft Farleigh 201 184 302 219 Boughton 213 143 316 242 Loofe 183 144 250 186 Linton - - 159 157 2 9 6 22 3 Detling 121 119 139 76 Hawkhurft - 521 598 778 505 H 4 Bar- Parities. Barm ing Maidftone Marden - - Brabourne Monks-horton ,Eaft Mailing Addington Sundridge Hollingbourne Alhford - - Great Chart Kingfnorth Welmington Darenth Wrotham - - ( 100 J Firft Period Second Period. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. 85 74 118 96 2608 2984 3 or ) 8 2847 688 55* 683 462 184 J 37 166 148 106 64 100 55 462 574 442 82 75 108 104 373 35 2 411 3 2 7 268 189 441 294 760 784 628 6 34 281 192 301 172 111 106 123 82 210 209 2 13 2 37 188 127 208 188 45 2 343 651 499 345 2 4 3977 43733 4O949 Thefe regifter extracts are perhaps no inade- quate reprefentation of thofe of the intire coun- ty. They comprehend places of every fize and every defcription in it, from its largeft towns to its fmalleft parifhes; if, there are on the one hand the rifing villages in the vicinity of London, there are on the other thofe which have experi- enced peculiar caufes of depopulation. The towns of Maidftone and Cranbrook, the villages of Sutton, Hawkhurft, and Marden have each loft no no inconfiderable manufacture. The lofs how- ever has been amply compenfated, by the great improvements in agriculture, either in themfelves or in the country adjacent; for thefe five places taken together are confiderably increafed. And the population of the whole county appears to be advanced fince the revolution about a fourth. It has long been a general apprehenfion, that the increafe of great towns has been occasioned by the depopulation of the adjacent villages. In particular parts of the kingdom, for reafons already taken notice of, this may, in fome meafure at leaft, have been the cafe. But with regard to the county of Kent, it is manifeft from the flighteft infpeftion of the foregoing table that the faft is dire6lly the reverfe. No places appear fo much decreafed as the* town of Sandwich and the city of Rochefter. The country parifhes, on the contrary, are gene- rally increafed one third and fome are more than doubled. Let us next crofs the Thames into the county of EffeXj and fee whether any dcfolation appears there; ESSEX 1O2 S S E X. Firft Period. Second Period. ParifKcs Felftead - - Stcbbing - - Toppesfield Great Yeldham G. Baddow - Coggefhall ''. -w Copford - - Kelvedon - - Sible Headingham Rayne Afhen - - Tilbury near Clare Ovington - Booking - - Wanftead - Wood ford - Walhamftow Harlow V . . Caftle Headingham Mapleftead - Stifted , - .- . Sandon - - Farnham - - Witham - - Halftead - ., Colne Engaine Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. 473 447 729 549 57 1 435 687 49 * 252 *49 339 266 148 130 246 170 54 568 537 471 857 1741 1454 1789 168 154 2 39 193 37 1 3 o 486 534 5 2 5 383 815 722 177 131 212 157 79 72 141 88 59 61 "5 59 36 3 43 <4 8 17*3 1516 1838 J 9^5 156 *97 289 462 394 410 704 762 666 778 877 1115 446 478 580 59 355 440 3 8 4 423 130 7 1 187 1^8 34 1 270 377 334 132 100 176 149 158 139 196 152 79 1 916 837 1O12 1616 1607 1901 2 99 121 11 9 270 220 High ( i<>3 ) Firft Period. Second Period. Pari flies. High Ongar - Panfield - - Fordham - - Bumftead - Romford - Braintree - H. Roding - Colchefter, Trinity Ail- Saints and St. Botolph St. Leonard - St. James - - Lexden - - Gr. and Lit, Birch Gosfield - - Bardfteld Saling - Great Saling Total 16605 16991 20299 20559 The increafe of population in this county ap- pears from thefe extracts to be only i-5th. But this is mod probably far below the ave- rage increafe of the county; for to avoid all poffi- ble imputation of an unfair feleclion of places, I have defignedly fixed upon four of the largeft towns and the moft unpromifing I could think of. I mean Coicheftef, Coggefhall, Braintree. and Halftcad; for as in all thofe I had reafon to believe the Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. 225 *94 379 282 127 57 142 108 243 166 306 270 258 163 3 1 / 21O 1003 1378 *453 1698 918 J1 73 952 1714 1 5 61 192 .108 462 328 217 2 33 1089 1164 79 6 1051 3*7 628 3 11 443 74 1*34 558 73 6 328 39* 316 282 195 151 252 235 125 !54 226 163 65 67 1 3 1 57 9 75 160 82 the woollen manufactory was greatly declined, I was apprehenfive that no inconfiderable depopu- lation had been the confequence. But I find, to my great fatisfa&ion, that Colchefter is the only one of the four that has fuffered any material di- minution; that the numbers in Coggefhall are advanced very much, and that thofe of Braintree and Halftead are certainly not gone backwards. I mall now give regifter extracts from the coun- ties of Suflex and Surrey. SUSSEX 10 5 U S S E X. Fir ft Period. Second Period. Parifhes. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Hooe 93 1OO 262 121 Ninfield 117 146 290 1 5 2 Crowhurft 96 93 103 87 Warbleton 2 35 220 420 269 Oare near Haflings 78 83 1 3 8 73 Afhburnham 218 163 244 168 Catsfield 140 99 166 9 1 Brightling 214 161 264 1*5 Bexhill 340 49 * 449 2 93 Battle 627 5*8 94^ 605 Penftiurft 73 37 48 21 Mountfield 146 126 265 136 Whatlington 7 1 37 114 54 Seddlefcomb *5 2 *35 250 *73 Hertfmonceux 240 207 407 260 Dallington 229 188 158 128 Northiam 2 37 185 419 254 Pulborough 403 360 684 459 Total 3709 3349 5627 3529 SURREY S U Pariflics. Abinger Albury She re Wotton Newdigate Guildford -St. Trinity Clapham Streatham Tooting Dulwich Dorking Epfom , Carnbervvell Mortlake Richmond Wimbleton R R E Y. Firft Period. Second Period. Bapt. Bur. Bapr. Bur. 21 5 l8 3 37 6 2 53 232 205 221 1 9 8 312 266 413 373 122 104 2 35 188 204 127 37 182 269 270 34i 306 449 467 346 402 340 4OO 720 1080 43 448 645 95 1 139 132 283 328 M9 60 5 2 3 408 1030 !<>39 1378 41 33 619 672 1O22 1218 683 9 6 5 1( H9 2681 6 33 ' 728 684 921 1274 1280 2228 2284 63^ 2 95 589 895 Total 7709 7641 11860 13801 With refpeft to the regifters of thefe two* counties it is obvious that taken together they are advanced above i-3d; and that SufTex is more increafcd than Surrey. This latter circumHance is a frefh confirmation of the falfity of the general idea, that if the inhabitants in tovr.s are 3 are multiplied, it is from the depopulation of country pariflies. For the Suflex regifters are intirely of this latter defcription \vith the {ingle exception of the town of Battle ; which indeed is fcarce an exception, as it is little more than a neat and populous village. With refpecl; to Surrey, it is remarkable that the burials exceed the baptifms ; which is occafioned by a confiderable mare of pariflies being in the vicinity of London. I proceed to the five fouth-weftern counties of Hants, Wilts, Devon, Dorfet, and Cornwall. H A N T S. Firft Period. Second Period. ParilKes. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Fareham 769 708 979 743 Lawton 217 275 491 300 Bifhop's Waltham 778 593 916 698 St. Maurice St. Mary's St. Peter's in Win- > 45 6 9 2 9 1 * chefter Portfea 1455 1303 7243 7598 Total 3838 3335 10531 10251 WILT S. Steeple Langford 221 187 282 289 DEVON. Yealmpton 334 346 524 406 Torrington 1348 1495 $90 963 Puflinch 183 155 238 127 Holfworthy 365 482 411 351 Total 2230 2478 2063 1847 DORSET DORSET. Firft Period. Second Period, ( ^ * ( /V Shillingftone 136 144 186 Stour Pain - 158 137 174 Furftmell Mag. 263 245 253 Bellchallwell 61 54 64 Shroton - - 106 86 236 Total 724 666 913 730 CORNWALL. N St. Kevern - 753 680 994 809 Perhaps thcfe extracts are not fufficiently nu- merous to form a fatisfa&ory average. As far as their evidence goes, we muft conclude thefe counties are nearly doubled, whether we calcu- late by births, or burials, or by the combination of both. The next extracts are from the eaftern counties of Suffolk and Norfolk. And firft SUFFOLK SUFFOLK. Firfl Period Second Period. Parilhes St. Edmund's Bu- ) ry, St. James Bapt. Burials 'Bapt. Burials 2286 2021 1477 !8 55 2 377 518 2 34 106 534 '99 680 953 210 374 308 221 3 6 4 222 334 1217 161 43 379 39 1220 58 53 234! l6 34 2161 438 630 569 ' 440 478 667 122 146 167 554 573 505 220 424 258 72O 691 6 95 7 6 9 872 718 *75 225 172 277 406 278 312 433 3*3 241 140 '49 377 458 416 217 208 i 25 1 476 373 386 1127 1191 1270 229 164 210 484 575 580 246 335 354 28 5 2 23 268 1206 1128 79 '3 1 69 1J 9 232 *49 Homers ( 111 ) Firft Period Second Period Parishes Bapt. Burials Bapt. Burials Homers-field 67 53 90 34 St. Peter's 46 68 6 9 3 2 Sancroft + t 70 46 95 55 Mettingham - 106 94 126 96 St. Andrew Illketmall 103 82 225 *34 Total 13827 13157 13932 12615 From the regifter extracts of this county it feems to be but little increafed. This appear- ance however is delufive; and the deception is eafily explained. In the firft place, I have chofen three towns the moft likely to be decreafed of any in the county; St. Edmunds Bury, Ipfwich, Sudbury: But in fact only one of the three, that is, St. Edmunds Bury, is really diminifhed. The other two, even on the face of the regifter, are a little increafed, and if we take into the account the diminifhed degree of mortality in each, they are confiderably fo. It is to be obferved alfo that in the neighbourhood of moft of the places from which the regifters are taken there is, what is called, a county houfe of indujlry, into which prodigious num- bers of the poor are received, and there employed. In one of them alone, that of Ship Meadow, there are 96 perfons from the towns of Beccles and Bungay ; and the burials from it were laft year ^2. There are, if I am not miftaken, five of thefe houfes la in in the county; a circumftance which muft have greatly lefiened the number of the parochial burials and perhaps fomething even the baptifms. To which may be added that the country parifhes in the above lift, notwithftanding all obftruclions, appear, exactly conformable to the 18 Suffolk parifhes in Mr. WALES'S tables, pages 55 and 59, to be in- creafed one third. Upon the whole therefore we may fairly conclude that this county, upon an ave- rage, is advanced between a third and a fourth' in its population fince the revolution.* Let us now go into Norfolk, of the depopula- tion of which I have heard ftrange accounts; but we fhall, find them juft as confonant to truth as the idea of the depopulation of the kingdom at large. Before I give the reader the evidence of fat for this * This idea might perhaps be confirmed by the very ingeni- ous papers already alluded to of Mr. ARTHUR YOUNG; a writer to whom this country is fingularly indebted for his many valuable publications. It appears by regifter extrafts he has made in. 14 parifhes in this county for two periods of 90 years each, the one dire&ly before the revolution, the other almoft immediately fubfequent, that the number of chriftehings in the latter were nearly -8th more than in the former; and that the exccfs of the baptifms over the burials was as 3 to i in favour of the prefent century. To fhew that this increafe of population, is not confined to this long period he forms a comparifon between the laft thirty years ana the thirty preced- ing. The chriftenings of the latter period furpafled thofe of the former i-ioth, and the increafe of the baptifms over the burials was more than doubled. From whence he concludes that the rapid rife of our population has been in the laft thirty years; for that there can fcarcely be a part of the kingdom where this can be lefs attributed to any but general caufcs ope- rating through the whole of it than in the parifhes in which his extracts were made this purpofc, as deduced from the regifter extra&s of the county, I beg leave to prefent him with the opinion of a native of it, in all refpels well quali- fied to judge in this matter. It is contained in a letter with which he has favoured me, together with much other ufeful intelligence; " As I am a " native of the county, fays this ingenious corref- " pondent, and have always redded in the center of " it, except feven years fpent at Cambridge, having " patTed, faving that exception, 54 years in it, I am " by no means a ftranger to its general flate, and " think myfelf well affured to fay, that the county " of Norfolk at large, was never in a more popu- " lous and flourishing ftate than of late years, or at " prefent. In feveral parts many extenfive com- " mons and wafte lands have been inclofed and " are now inclofing amongft us, and the fpirit of " agriculture and cultivation is very high and alert, " where the preffures of the times have not yet " extended their effects, and where the means yet " remain to perfevere in the improvement of our " lands." This gentleman, I flatter myfelf, will not be dif- pleafed to fee the probable confirmation of his opinion in the following regifter extracts. 1 7 3 NORFOLK, ( U4 ) NORFOLK. Firfl Period. Second Period. Pariflies Bq,t. Bur. Bapt. Bur, Sfrpd .m 608 463 669 499 Catton 197 159 304 251 Thorpe 185 198 178 178 Trower Newton 378 331 396 290 Lakenham 89 86 164 109 Kirby Bedon 127 101 160 123 Sweinfthorpe 50 61 49 62 Altcar 246 148 182 137 Hellefdon 56 44 63 52 Drayton 142 98 167 127 White-Gate 386 212 351 223 Hedenham 121 87 170 109 Dcreham 1198 941 1724 1251 Ellingham 102 80 99 64 Laddon 427 334 407 296 Brome 101 61 106 64 Detchingham 172 155 259 175 4545 3559 544 4010* From thefe extracts it appears that, as far as their evidence goes, the county is increafed at leaft one fifth in its population, exclufive of the addition to be made from the degree of dimi- niihed mortality. * This difparity between the baptifms and burials is partly o;ying to the coitnty houfes of j' A moft obliging and aftive correfpqndent in the city of Norwich, not only furnifhed me with a confiderable part of the above regifter extracts, but likewife fent me the bills of mortality for the city of Norwich for thefe laft 20 years. Thefe bills are much more fatisfa&ory than thofe of London, as they contain the births and burials of all denominations. Unfortunately however they go no farther back than the year 1729. Their annual number of baptifms and burials then and now are as follows. Bapt. Bur. In 1729 877 1136 On an average of c years, be-) r > A1 57 **# ginning with the year 1775, \ From this increafe of the baptifms the popu- lation of the city appears to have advanced one fourth even fince the year 1729. But the augmentation of inhabitants is not the moft pleafing intelligence conveyed by thefe bills. The degree of its mortality is greatly diminimed. In the year 1729 the baptifms were but 3~4ths of the burials ; whereas on an average of five years ending with the year 1780, they -were very nearly equal. Confequently the aclual living population muft be augmented much more than I have juft now faid. This advantageous change in point of heaU thinefs my correfpondent, in fome meafure,afcribes three, and with great plaufibility, to two caufes. I 4 The ( "6 ) The firft is, the amazing increafe of vegetation within the walls of the city during the courfe of the laft thirty or forty years ; infomuch, he fup- pofes, that it now contains more garden ground thrm any city in the kingdom. The fecond caufe of increafed healthinefs is the building many Imali houfes on the out-fide of the city for poor people, vho ufed to be cooped up in fome confined holes wit kin. Should improvements for this purpofe be carried dill further in the city of Norwich, and par- ticularly fhould it adopt the humane regulations fefpecling the infant poor of the cities of London and Weftminfter, it would .become, perhaps, in point of falubrity, little if at all inferior to the healthieft of country parifhes. It feerns indeed fcarcely lefs fo even at prefent. In the year 1752 a furvey was taken of the city, when the inhabitants amounted to upwards of 36000, which, I am affured, was far below the truth. The annual burials were about 11000 which fhews the average of deaths to be about one in thirty-three. Its healthinefs is greatly increafed fmce that time; what would it be, ^ then,, were every remaining unfavourable circuin- ftance removed ? It appears then to be the joint refult of the above remarks, that the population of this county at large, muft like its neighbours have increafed more than one fourth fmce the revolution. I lhall now juft take a flight view of the mid- land counties and then. proceed to the north. MIDDLESEX. Firfl Period. Second Period. Parifncs. Fulham Chelfea Chifwick Kenfington Highgate Iflefworth Twickenham Kentifh Town Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. 1434 1640 *793 253 1 1109 1347 2720 4746 9 6 7 1286 *7 1 5 2 354 *734 2514 2419 357* 591 219 768 34 1213 1342 1960 2198 97 1 93 1406 1521 539 1281 809 6263 10 559 NORTHAMPTON. St. John, Peterborou. Northampton , All Saints St. Sepulchre St. Giles St. Peter Orlingbury Willingborough EBon Finedon Kingfthorpe Kiflingbury 5628 5095 6174 6742 HUNT- ( "8 ) HUNTINGDON. Firfl Period. Second Period. Parifhes. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Huntingdon - 88l 805 937 908 Whittlefca - 2488 2044 2847 2526 Conington - 76 54 81 64 Stilton 270 2 34 3*3 2 37 Glatton 228 180 261 246 3943 33*7 4439 CAMBRIDGE. Ely, St. Trinity *744 1800 1757 1 59 1 - Mary 800 608 840 695 Cam. St. Mary 315 401 302 295 - Harfton 173 135 243 188 3032 2944 314* 2959 HERTFORD. Bifhops Stortford 1068 741 1085 1034 Sav/bridgeworth 643 530 790 703 Tring - 541 619 v 894 1016 Hempftead 751 768 1326 1436 Berkhampftead 479 529 893 967 Watford 1291 1292 1901 1736 4773 4479 5 88 9 5 8 9 2 LEI- LEICESTER. Firft Period. Second Period. Parifhes Leiceft. St. Martin's Mary's Nicholas Wegftone S T A Abbot's Bromley Cheadle Womborne Hanbury S A Drayton Audlem Shrewfbury,St. Mary's Wellington Bcrrington - B E Newbury Spccn Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. 1052 963 1452 1538 5 8 3 49 8 *93 2 l8 47 282 355 43 610 2320 1461 4349 3385 F F O R D. 745 6 55 85* 646 425 394 681 665 34 * *79 586 383 433 47 2 485 476 1944 1700 2604 2170 LOP. 1239 1223 1691 1:1 3 O 804 643 1101 618 781 740 1134 1312 1474 291 2983 1841 no , no 252 167 4408 3007 7161 5068 R K S. 2237 2119 2384 2230 614 445 795 2851 2564 3179 2971 DERBY ( 120 ) BUCKS, DERBY, AND OXFORD. Firft Period. Second Period. Pari flies. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Bucks. Amerfham 784 740 1222 1084 Chefham 9 6 4 *394 1730 195 1 Oxford. St. Mary 318 345 176 179, St. Thomas 702 602 642 623 93- 39 129 64 Derby. Eggerton 134 129 168 103 Etwall 180 iS 1 1 9 1 149 Mickleover 178 130 2 37 *53 Little-over Chapelry 86 66 J 73 87 Fendern ditto 85 83 109 10 5 Sutton on the Hill 166 *59 229 144 Norbury 127 112 187 "5 3817 393 5196 4767 Judging from thefe extrafts, the midland coun- ties, like thofe of the eaft, weft, and fouth, are in- creafed about one fourthr PARISH PARISHES IN WALES FOR TWO PERIODS or TWELVE YEARS EACH. Firft Period. Second Period. Parifhes. Llanfhaidden 428 412 538 422 Geffillios 262 214 285 176 Llanbedn 137 82 138 72 Llanfwroy - 300 295 416 235 Henlan 275 231 431 323 Thefe Welch parifhes, cflimating by the bap- tifms, are increafed almoft one third, by the burials fcarcely at all. Neither, perhaps, is the exa6t truth. The great excefs of the former over the latter, cannot be owing intirely to their healthinefs, but probably, in a great meafure, to their emigrations into England; while the remaining population is doubtlefs coniiderably increafed. Let us now travel to the north, and we fhall there find population, advanced ftill fafter than any thing we have'yet met with. YORK ( 122 ) O R K. Firft Period Second Period. I I Parifhes. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Leeds 5392 6334 7312 7983 Bingley 1153 973 2178 1724. Wjnnfiddcum j ^ 238 ^ ^ Whitchurch 797 660 1079 557 Thorparch 132 138 164 98 Berwick in Elmet 481 397 610 388 Dewfbury near ) /- Wakefield \ *S7 J 34 455 Marfton 173 143 343 189 Kighly 906 723 2888 2026 Tadcafter 585 414 1028 728 Hinckley 1841 658 1132 1564 Knarefborough 1225 1190 2263 1958 Wycliffe 21 25 41 49 Middleton Tyas 216 183 485 299 Total 13755 13380 24191 20293 LANCASTER ( 123 ) LANCASTER. Firft Period. Second Period. Parifties. Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Walton 475 1121 788 1699 Stalmin 528 560 633 462 Bolton in the Moors 2773 2891 6411 5357 Prefect 1367 1276 3124 3225 Rochdale 4377 3849 8960 7730 Leigh 1960 1666 4235 . 2591 Sephton 564 958 655 850 Preftwich 979 817 2440 2223 Middlemen 1052 906 3233 2065 Hayton ' 732 498 1082 756 RatclifFe 481 360 1459 947 Buiy 1693 1 793 9339 4 8 33 Dean 1560 1316 2862 2316 Flixton 776 450 1097 768 Farnworth ~ 957 1039 1387 1122 Ecclefton 126 83 164 145 CUMBERLAND CUMBERLAND. Firft Period. Second Period. Parifhes Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Deftington 177 138 349 235 Dean 300 254 384 270 Workington 461 341 2113 1586 Egremont 320 283 599 388 Arlerdon 293 138 222 105 Bees 873 518 1255 338 Total 2^24 1672 5921 2922 CHESTER. Hale Chapel 399 339 620 342 Childwall 680 722 1094 1276 A fli ton upon Me r fey 316 276 803 545 Burton 183 198 311 284 Prelbury 6194 5456 13019 7075 Waverham 544 501 1032 727 St. Michael, Chefter 316 317 326 245 Knutsford - 476 656 1072 1008 Ravenfworth - 366 382 540 353 Total 9474 8847 ^317 11875 As far as the regifter extracts of thefe'45 places will enable us to judge the population of the nor- thern counties, whether we compute by baptifms or burials, or by a union of both ; whether we view ( i2 5 J view them feparately or collectively, their popu- lation feems to be even more than doubled. And this eftimation is ftrongly confirmed by the re- gifter returns of the diocefc of Chefter, com- prehending near four hundred parifhes, in the year 17] 7 and 1779. I will not trouble the reader with a detail of the feveral pari flies in them al- though I have fcen the numbers of each, but only prefent him with the return and increafe of each feparate deanry. REGISTER RETURNS for the Diocefe of C^IE^TER, in the Years 1777 and 1779; toiih the INCREASE of each DEANRY. ARCHDEACONRY OF CHESTER. 1717. *779- Increafe. Deanries. Bapt. Bur. Bapf. Bur. Bapt. Bur. Bangor 88 76 148 112 60 36 Blackburn 719 645 1604 1019 885 374 Chelter 608 446 838 711 230 265 Frodlham 649 501 1124 741 47,5 240 Leylancl 3,5,5 285 586 397 231 112 Macclesfield 564 661 961 799 397 138 Mjlpas 144 08 263 146 119 48 Mancliefler 1875 1492 ,5816 3916 3941 2424 Middlcwich 404 325 713 ,500 309 i;j Nantwich 376 320 618 447 242 127 Warrington, cad part 709 521 1518 1267 809 746 -vvcflpart 933 849 2217 2242 1284 1393 Wirral 279 161 38,5 276 100 115 Total 7703-6380-1679 1-12573-9080-6193 K ARCH- (126 ) ARCHDEACONRY of RICHMOND. 1717. *779' Increafe. . ^Deanries Bapt. Bur. Bapt. Bur. iiapt. Bur. Amoundernefs 6,57 653 1091 945 435 292 Furnefs 284 203 372 265 78 62 Copeland 409 310 836 680 427 270 Kendal 226 253 ,591 419 365 166 Londfdale 301 265 498 276 197 11 Richmond 435 321 644 346 209 7,5 Catterick 405 348 36,5 361 100 13 Borough Bridge 184 122 275 215 91 93 Total 2901 2375 4672 3507 1902 982 In the whole > e ,- diocefe $ lo6 4-8755 21463 16030-10990-7175 Dr. PRICE fays, p. 15 of his cffay on the po- pulation of England and Wales, that 35 is by no means too great a multiplier of the annual deaths in France to (hew its population. If he allows me the fame multiplier for England, as I hope he will, the above deanries in the courfe of about 60 years, are increafed 251125 fouls. If he grants me 26 only as a multiplier of the laptifm, which is lefs than he allows for France, the increafe is 285740. Let the Doftor produce a parallel inftance in any province of France, Spain, Italy, or in any king- dom in Europe. The generality of Auvergne in France feems the moft increafed of any part of that nation ; but what does that amount to ? In the ( 127 ) the fame comnaTj of time it was advanced in its annual baptifms from 5681 to 6893 ; at moft about i-^t-h whereas :he above Britijh provinces, have been more tru.n doubled. But even this, great as ,it is, is not the only agreeable dedudion from thefe returns. Dr. PRICI obferves, page 31 of his efTay, " That from Mr. " Moheau's Rccherches 3* Conjulerations'fur la Popu- " latwn de la France it appears that on an average of "jive years ending in 1774 the births of that king- " dom exceeded the deaths zfevenih ; and that this " is probably an excefs which in France more than " counter balances the deftruc\ion occafioned by ".emigration, war, and the fea-fervice." How does this matter ftand with us ? From the above re- turns it appears that the births exceed the burials more than &Jfih, even exclufive of the diffenters ; whom one of themfelves, Mr. Robinfon, (if I re- member rightj eftimates at zjifth of the whole in- habitants of the kingdom. However as this efti-> mate is not to be depended upon, it being found- ed on principles extremely fallacious, I will only fuppofe them to be one twentieth, which will make the excefs of our births over our burials, near a. fourth ; and this is probably an excefs, \vhicrj in England more than counter balances the deftruc- tion occafioned by emigration, war, and the fta- fervice, however great they may be above thofe of France. K 2 SECT. SECT. II. Collc&wt View of the Regifler Evidence. HAVING travelled over the greater part ' of the kingdom, and icen population in- creafed wherever we went, with the ex- ception of not one place in twenty; let us take a furvey of the whole in one collective view, ac- cording to their annual average of births and bu- rials, as exhibited in the following table, together with thofe from Mr. WALES. TABLE. Firft Period. Second Period. Counties. Parishes. Births. Burials. Births. Burials. Kent 64 1729,70 1730,50 2285,60 2166,90 Eflex 43 877,90 942,30 1068,85 1125,95 SufTex 18 185,45 l6 >>45 281,35 176,45 Surrey 17 385,45 382,05 593,00 690,05 5 S. Counties 16 388,30 3 6 7.3 739' X 5 69-5,80 Suffolk 29 698,45 681,15 632,95 729,70 Cy of Norwich 877,00 1136,00 1157,00 1176,00 Norfolk 17 229,25 177.45 272,40 200,50 i2Mid.Coun. 61 2063,70 1952,80 2841,00 3111,01 D.ofChefter 10604,00 8755,00 2 1463,00 l6o8o,OO In Wales 5 116,80 102,60 150,60 102,00 Mr. Wales's 38 1807,24 1518,24 5384. 6 8 3537.62 D.of St.David 1228,90 1077,70 2029,60 1663,60 Total 21 192,14-19090,54-38899,18-31455,58 If ( 129 ) If we eftimate the mean number of inhabitants at the two periods by the baptifms, thole of the latter will be to the former as 38899 to 21192 or as nearly as i s to i. If the deaths be confidercd J f f as the ftandard, the proportion will be as 31455 to 19090, or fomething more than 3 to 2. Should we calculate by an arithmetical mean arifing from a combination of both, it will be nearly as 35177 to 20141, or about 7 to 4. But perhaps this is much too low to reprefent the proportion which our inhabitants bear to thofe at the revolution. The firft period for the diocefe of Chefter does not be- gin till about thirty years after, and that for the diocefe of St. David not till twelve. Taking all this into confideration, together with the diminifh- ed degree of mortality which has certainly taken place, there carmot a tloubt remain that our peo- ple are almoft doubled fmce that celebrated aera. Even granting that we have taken too great a {hare of our regifter evidence from the north, xhat moil growing and populous part of our com- munity ; the deduction to be made on that account, will hardly, it is prefumed, reduce, the increafe to one third. It has, I think, been pretty clearly proved that our metropolis itfelf is augmented in that ratio ; and Mr. RUDDER, by a minute detail of its feveral parimes, has fliewn that the whole county of GJoucefter has raifed its numbers, even K 3 iince the commencement of the prefent century, from about 105,000 to almoft 150,000. But how- ever rich and floiu-ifhing that county may be, there is not the leafl ground of probability to fup- pofe that it has increafed fader than the kingdom at large, even exclufive of thofe prodigious mul- titudes in the northern provinces. Upon every view, therefore, we may fafely venture to con- clude that our population, frnce the diftinguifhed a^ra we have occafion fo often to mention, is, up- on the wKole, and comprehending every part of our jftaridj ; irkeafed full one third* : T.^ JKMJ bn*Ai , '-, >'! t I have omitted to infert the regjfters before given for the northern counties, becaufe the greater part of them are in the diocefe of Chefter; and thofe in the environs of Londofi,. be- caufe comprehended in Eflex, Middlefex, Surrey, and Kent. ,<),) " iiiiuj .... Z' . : ,- -UK, JL.f] Jj:..n...i .. .^a^g E c T< m Increafe of Population during the loft twenty Years. THE great advance population has : rri r a P R I N- ( '36 ) PRINCIPAL TOWNS and CITIES. London, according to its bunais, from i to 1,500 Norwich, its births i to 1.391 Liverpool, a&ual furveys i to 6,000 Manchcfter, from its births i to 3.709 Sheffield, births i to 6.307 Whitehaven, from furveys i to -.000 Workington, births i to 4.583 Walfall i to 3,247 MidcHeton r 5^-*;, . i to 4,090 Rochdale i to 3,061 Warrington i to 2.406 From thefe tables it is obvious, on the very flighteft infpeBion, that the provinces and gene- ralities of France are increafcd only a tenth ; whereas the counties and diocefes of England and Wales are almoft doubled ; that- the metropolis ol the former is enlarged fomething more than an eighth, that of-the latter above a third ; that the cities and towns of inferior rank in the former are rather dimini/he'd, virile thofe or Britain are mul- tiplied almoft/our times* 2 briDin , SECT. SECT. V. The prefent amount of our Population computed. HAVING as I hope pretty clearly eftablifhed the doftrine of an increafed and increafing population, I fhall now try what can be done towards afcertaining its prefent aftual amount. Two modes feem to me tolerably fatisfa&ory for that purpofe. ift. The average proportion which the houfes returned by the window furveyors to the tax-office bear to thofe that are not returned there : and the 3d, The average proportion which the number of men ballotted into the triennial fervice of the national militia in a great number of places of all kinds and defcriptions taken at random bears to to the whole number of inhabitants in thofe places collectively. From ( '38 ) ^ rom the Returns of Houfes at the Tax- Office. \\ J7ITH regard to the returns, it has been fully proved that all the houfes are not returned there; that for great towns it is impoflible, and that for country parifhes it is commonly gurj-'fd at; ourbufinefs then, is to determine the deficiencies arifing from all thefe fcveral quarters. This may be done, if not with perfect accuracy, -with at lead a high degree of probability, by taking indifcrimi- nately the furveyors' returns of a great number of peaces of all forts, fizes, and defections, and com- pa? ing them with the total number of houfes, deter- mined by aclual enumeration, in fuch places v f- peclively, and collecting from thence their joint average ratio. In order to fee how this matter really (lands, I muft beg the reader to confult the following table. TABLE. 139 TABLE Jhe wing the Number of Houfes returned by iht Surveyors of the Window Lights, in different Towns and Pari/hes in different Parts of the Kingdom taken indifcriminately ; together with the total Number of Houfes taken from attual Enumeration, infuch Towns and Panjhes refpeftwdy. B E. Counties. Berks Parities. Hoi Speen afes returned. Total. 187 240 739 79 2 1366 2066 4i 95 1*27 2883 116 13 155 4i8 77 9 204 304 44 104 H4 155 18 65 35 7 2 72 201 244 4OO 25 85 50 60 25 73 AI 6s Chefter Preftbury Riii*fnn Thfftpr Faftham Cornwall Cambridge Devon St. Kevern Little St. Mary's Torrington 1~T nl fwo rt \\ v Dorfet Derwefton ^lTillincrftr>n Effex Stebbing \VitViam R pHcrWpll T-TiorV> f^nomr* Gosfield Hiorh Rnrlincr Counties Counties. Parifh"s. Houics returned Total. 95 445 1540 1940 200 226 1O2 221 2889 4268 6 27 '9 54 19 4 29 88 46 123 2 7 57 20 30 11 2O 3 6 55 8 12 23 63 768 1086 967 1884 55 79 260 338 12 23 169 465 56 146 37 49 86 90 33 6 355 537 54 9 1 38 8o Catsficld Hants Hertford Lancafter Portfea Bifhops Stortford Rainford \^i r\r nPiT/^r Norfolk Helfden f* o ftrvn -Thorpe Minfhull nvf3itfi N nthampton Salop Northampton Shrewfbury Suffolk Eungay -Wrftnn T^ a r f\ u; ^11 SufTex Hertfmonceux Counties. Pariflies. Houfes returned. Total. -Catsfield 23 50 Surrey Epfom 215 345 Albury 48 75 Stafford Abbots Bromley 161 246 Worcefter Old Swinford 414 1579 York Thorpiirch 41 58 -Middleton Tyas Kent Maidftone 623 1106 Marden 186 225 Boughton 57 87 . Tudely 56 83 Sutton nearDartford 103 104 Tenterden 96 198 Crayford 170 190 Lenham 153 *94 Wouldham 9 38 Burham 15 24 Teflon 26 26 Eaft Mailing 175 175 5 2 9 Derby Sutton on the Hill 17 102 Wellington 20 49 Etwall 30 99 . Eggtngton 28 54 , Mickleover - . 42 76 Little-over 33 44 , Findern *8 45 Effex Great Saling 21 54 , Bardfield Saling ** 43 L Herts Counties. Parifhcs. Houfes returned. Total. Herts Berkhamftead 166 22 Tring 107 157 Middlefex Fulham 355 537 Hammerfmith 384 567 Norfolk Rednall with Harlfton 89 157 Brome 19 31 Loddon 69 139 Brooke 34 78 ! Ditchingham 29 44 Northampton E6hm 20 95 Kiflingbury 32 107 Kingfthorpe 63 151 Fincdon 85 177 Leicefter Scrap toft 14 28 Suffolk Ship Meadow 7 13 Mettingham 21 22 St. Andrew, Ilkfhall 45 56 Eliingham 25 39 Ilomersfield - 21 34 St. Peter's 12 14 Total 17225 By this table it appears that the number of houfes returned for thefc towns and parifhes are 17225, but that the total number is 29261, and mcthinks here is a. fufficient number and variety of each kiud to form an average proportion for the ( '43 ) the whole kingdom. This allowed, the number of houfes returned to the tax-office is to the total number of houfes in the kingdom, and as 17225 to 29261. But this, it mud be granted, holds good only for the year 1780; whereas the laft return Dr. Paicfi gives us is for 1777. The returns in 1780, fup- pofing them made, muft have been fomething lefs, for reafons fufficiently apparent in the courfe of this work. This difference muft be made out by a comparifon of fucceflive returns at the tax-office, in different years, at a given interval from each other. Now the houfes returned in the year 1777 were 27958 lefs than in the year 1761 ; which fhews the average annual decreafe in the returns during thefe 16 years was 1747. This multiplied by 3 the number of years from 1777 to 1780 (the latter inclufive) gives 5241 the further decreafe to the laft period, which fubftrafted from 952734 the number of houfes returned in 1777 leaves 947493, the true return for 1780. Refume then the num- ber of houfes in the abovementioned towns and parimes, both total and returned and fay as the number of houfes returned for all thefe 17225 places is to their total number 29261 fo is the number of houfes returned at) the tax-office in 1780 $ 947493 to the total num. of houfes in the kingdom 1,609,555 La We ( 144 ) We have nothing further to do than to afcertain the average allowance of perfons to a houfe. and we fee our prefent aftual population. What this average is may be fatisfa&orily collected from the following table* TABLE SHEWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS TO A HOUSE. CounUes Chefter Lancafler Norfolk Pariflies. Burton -Eaftham Cornwall Devon Effex Kent Chefter St. Keverne Newton Ferrers Toppesfield L. Baddow Maidftone Mardcn Farningham Nottingham -Boughton -Tefton -Tunftall Manchefter -Liverpool -Rainford Norwich -Brooke -Thorpe Nottingham Houfes. Inhabit.To a Ho. 95 448 4! 212 1084 Si 2883 ^7^ 5,'. 4l8 1688 4'. 104 464 42 105 624 6 64 35 2 5i 1J06 5650 59 22.5 J1 73 53 56. 280 5 87 495 K 26 14* Ai 4268 6340 221 7*39 7 8 57 320; ^5 27246 3 6l6 9 5? 489 6$ 272 4^ 1 74i7 5s Suffolk ( 145 ) Counties Suffolk Parifhes. Hawfted *Rradfield ) Houfes. 5 22 34 445 146 5 49 80 10 6025 891 16 9 3 *$ 3 2 21 20 63 22 107 Inliabit.To a Ho* 386 7 | 263 ; 2231 5 1076 74 290 5-* 3 8 73 448 5^ 74 7r- 30804 5 | 62 99 71 no c ^ Combuft ) *Great Wald ) ingfield $ *Lowftoff Havprhill Suflex Catsfield TTooe Rricrhtlirnr Penhurft Warwick Cumberland Birmingham ) in 1770 ) tCarlifle ^"J\I pwtown 4*T4 arraHv 9^ O4- 72 S 'f'f^arlptnn 4 > \\^rpTv 1 33 4i 114 6| 1 92 6 98-41 89 4t 354 5'5 no 5 124 4i- 473 4l fRrifrn 'f'Rotrliar^riTr 4 1 ! Tr r i rrVi t KTT +Rlprkliill 4 w \/r/-v-i-^- T_r^ ^ & Newby $ Northampton Kiflingbury Tot al 34934 ^88419 5; L 3 From Thofe places mark'd * are from Mr. ARTHUR YOUNG; tftofe mark'd t from obfervations on the Cariiiie bills of mortality. ( 146 ) From this table then it appears that the average number of perfons to a houfe is about 5 . But in the city of London it is allowed on all hands that it muft be confiderably more. Mr. WALES makes it 65, and even Dr. PRICE feems not very unwilling to allow 6. This laft number then we may fafely venture to take. The city of London is nearly i-ioth of the whole kingdom; confe- quently the average arifing from the combination of town, and country, is very little lefs than 5*. But left the above table mould not comprehend a fufficient number and variety of places to form a fatisfaciory average upon, and becaufe I would chufe to reprefent our population as rather below the truth than above it. I will affume only 5*. Multiply then the number of houfes 1,609,555 found above by 5?- the average of perfons toahoufe and the producl is 8,691,597. If we confider the feveral deductions and abatements above made, and likewife bring to account the prodigious num- bers hitherto unnoticed; fuch as our foldiers and failors, the multitudes contained in our dock yards, in our hofpitals, in our county work-houfes, or places for the general reception and employment of the poor, it will pretty evidently appear that from this mode of computation the prefent inha- bitants of England and Wales can be very little Jefs than nine millions. The ( '47 ) The Population of the Kingdom computed jrom the average Proportion which the number of Men ballottedfor into the trien- nial Service of the national Militia, from a great number of Places, of every Size and Defcriplion, bears to the whole number of the People in thofe Places collectively. TT T muft here be previoufly obferved that the pro- JL portion which the men ballotted for into the militia bears to the whole number of inhabit- ants will vary according as the exemptions from that fervice are more or lefs numerous and accord-, ing as the returns of thofe liable to ferve are made with more or lefs accuracy. From both thefe caufes it will be much greater in country pariihes than in large populous towns. Clerks, apprenti- ces, feamen, &c. are exempted, and thefe are chiefly refident in large towns. The returns of thofe liable to ferve too muft there be very deficient, on account of the many lodgers and temporary inha- bitants, who though in the place to day will perhaps be abfent to-morrow, nor can the officers appoint- ed to make the returns fo minutely diret their inquiries with refpeft to each individual as may be done in a thin and fcattered neighbourhood. Here are fcarcely any clerks, apprentices, feamen, itiner- ant temporary lodgers, &c, each man too is known to each, and every one is interefted that none be excufed who are really fubjed to be returrred. L 4 Hence ( 148 ) Henqe the proportion of the men returned as liable to ferve, or thofe bailotted into actual fervice for places of fuch different descriptions to the whole number of people in fuch places refpeftively muft be extremely different. The firft thing therefore to be afcertained is this different proportion. How this matter ftands in country parifhes may be collected with fome degree of probability from the following fhort table. Counties Kent !>wfl Effex Suffex Suffolk Devon York Hants Kent TABLE. Parifhes Boughton Hunton - Wouldham Burham - - Tefton - Toppesfield Stebbing Brightling Hawftead Newton Ferrers Marfton Lawton E. Mailing Addington Inhab. Militia 497 2 43* 2 1X 9 1 107 1 M5 If 624 3 95 4f 448 3 386 2 . 464 3 526 2 380 If 953 5 182 i 6213 32 From this table it appears that the average pro- portion of the men bailotted into the national mi- litia ( 149 ) litia in country parifhes to their whole number of inhabitants is nearly as i to 194. What the pro- portion is in large populous towns of various de- nominations, the following lifts will (hew. Leeds Maidftone Birmingham Chefter Prefbury Norwich Manchefter Liverpool Bolton No. of Inhab. Militia 17121 45 5650 26 40000 109 14713 40 16000 52 40000 151 41030 80 40000 42 7000 9 221514 554 The average proportion of militia in thefe towns to the whole number of inhabitants is as i to 399. The medium of this, and that of country parilhes would mew the. average for the whole kingdom, provided there were juft as many inha- bitants in towns as in the country. But this, per- haps, is not the cafe. Dr. PRICE, page 198, 2d; edit, of Obfervations on Revtrfionary Payments, in- forms us from Sufmilch that the number of country to town inhabitants, in Pomerania, Brandenburgh and fome other kingdoms, is nearly as 3! to i. But this proportion is by no means applicable to fo rich, manufacturing, and commercial a nation as England. Upon looking over a return of houfes made made by the clergy of the archdeaconry of Chefler in the year 1779, I find there are more than two- thirds of them from towns containing above 400 houfes each ; which may properly he called rather large \.\i&nfmall towns, as their inhabitants are pro- bably between two and three thoufand. In the county of Gloucefler alfo. comprehending the ci- ty and county of Briflol, the inhabitants of large towns are almoft twice as many as thofe of the country. Our capital too contains as many peo- ple as the country inhabitants of five or fix coun- ties. Although therefore in fome of our counties the country may be four times as many as the town inhabitants, I think I may fafely venture to fay that, on an average applied to the whole kingdom at large, the latter are at lead half the number of the former. Confequently agreeable to the ratio of their refpeftive quotas to the militia above af- ccrtained, the towns furnifh one quarter as many men as the country. How many then is the fum total furniflied by both ; or rather that would be furnifhed if the militia laws uniformly extended to every place ? The number at prefent required to be raifed is 30840. Hut the Tower Hamlets and all that part of the city of London which retain the p/'vilcge of raifing the train-bands, and the tinners of the counties of Devon and Cornwall, arc exempted from this fervice. How many ihefe exempted perfons amount to and how many men they would furnifh to the militia if thefe exemp- tions were removed, it is impofliblc to fay with any ( '5' ) any degree of precifion. I will fuppofe, however, and I think it will be allowed no extravagant fup- pofition, that the latter would not be lefs than 2 1 60. This would make the whole body of militia 33000. One fifth of thefe, or 6600, the above reafoning requires to be furnifhed by the towns ; and the ratio of their militia, to their whole inhabitants is as i to 399, confequently 6600 multiplied by 399 gives 2,633400, the number of our inhabitants refident in large towns. This multiplied by 2 pro- duces 5,266,800 the number of inhabitants in the country, which added to thofe in the towns makes 7.900,200 for the whole population of the king- dom. That this calculation from the militia, like the former one from the houfes, is rather below the truth is extremely probable. The county of Gloucefter and the city and county of Briftol con- tain, as appears partly from aclual furveys and partly from general eftimates, little tefs than 300000 inhabitants. But they altogether furnilh only 960 men to the militia. This would give more than 300 as a multiplier ; which, aflumed for the whole kingdom, would make our popu- lation amount to almoft ten millions. But confi- dering the vaft fize of Briftol, fo much beyond that of any other city in the nation, except the capital, I dare not take fo large an average. And yet when I reflect on the amazing increafe, and prefent populoufnefs of all the northern counties, I am ( 152 ) I am inclined to think it is not much too great, and that we may fafely admit the above eftimates to be below rather than above our prefent numbers. This is ftrongly confirmed too by the lift of regi- fter extracts before produced. If, as Dr. PRICE contends, the inhabitants of the kingdom at the revolution were fix millions, they muft at prefent, on the clear teftimony of regifter evidence, even exclufive of the confideration of a diminifhed mor- tality, be fully equal to what is deduced from the foregoing computations. -V'~. CONCLUSION. TH E refult of the whole enquiry does, I apprehend, afford the faireft grounds for concluding that upon every mode of in- vefligation, and according to the mod moderate eftimate, the inhabitants of this kingdom muft have been increafed one third lince the revolution, about one fixth" during the laft twenty years, and that their prefent amount cannot be lefs than be- tween eight and nine millions. A variety of collateral circumftances incline me to believe that all thefe computations are below the truth. Dr. PRICE himfelf acknowledges that 10,000 houfes in and about London have been built within the laft twenty years ; to thefe I may add near 40,000 that have rifen up in only about two thirds of the archdeaconry of Chefter, fince [the ( J53 ) the year 1720. With regard to the vicinity of the to;vn of Manchefter, I can, on the authority of a clergyman of diftinguifhed ingenuity and uncom- mon accuracy of remark in that quarter, venture to aflert that the people there are multiplied twenty fold within thefe laft thirty years. Wonderful as this may feem I can eafily credit it after being in- formed, that in feveral parifhes of that neighbour- hood three or four new chapels of eafe to the mo- ther church have been creeled within little more than that compafs of time. In perfecl agreement with this are the prodigious numbers which were a few years ago confirmed in that part of the kingdom. At the general confirmation for the diocere of Chefter in 1778, the number of young perfons confirmed amoumed to above 37.000, and in the laft for that of York to upwards of 75,000; And it is to be remembered that almoft all thefe were between the ages of fourteen and eighteen ; which defcription I have feldom found to compre- hend above a twentieth, or even a twenty-fifth of the whole inhabitants in any place. If to thefe you add the papifts and diffenters, which abound there more than in any other quarter, you will find in thefe two diocefes alone, nearly two thirds as many people as our celebrated calculator could difcover in the whole kingdom. After viewing this unparalleled growth of population in thefe counties and a very confiderable one in all the reft, "ve need not wonder that in the courfe of the lail lix or feven years, we have recruited our ar- my ( '54 ) my and fupplied our navy with more than two hundred and fifty thoufand effective men. Had \ve been the poor depopulated nation that we have been taught to believe ourfelves, thefe aftonifh- ing drains would have left us no hands to till the earth, to make our clothes and prepare our food. We muft have been our own labourers, millers, and bakers, taylors and fhoemakers, or have been naked and ftarved. But in facl this amazing mul- titude is fcarcely miffed from amongft us. The plough ftill goes brifkly forward, our fields (land thick with corn, our workfhops and manufactures are as yet but little thinned, and all ranks and or- ders are as well clothed and fed as ever. All thefe circumftances taken together form a ftrong prefumptive teftimony in favour of a greatly increafed population, and tend to corroborate the pojitive proofs of it, which have been adduced in the courfe of this eifay, and on which the me- rits of the queftion mull principally and ultimately reft. Thefe proofs are (as the reader will recollect) the deficiencies in the London bills of mortality ; the deficiencies in the returns of the furveyors of the houfe and window tax ; the numbers ferving in the militia compared with the whole number of inhabitants in the refpe&ive places and diftrifts by which they are furnifhed, and the feveral ta- bles of baptifms and burials in the two requi- fite periods, extracted from the regifiers of eight r nine hundred parimes. If thefe evidences and the ( 155 ) t ' e arguments founded on them are admitted, they muft effectually overthrow Dr. PRICE'S fyftem, and eftaM fh a very different, and, to every fin- cere lover of his country, a much more comfor- tab ] e do&rine. And it is not, I hope, affuming too much, or tranfgreffing the bounds of candour to mggeft, that as the ingenious author has un- doubtedly fuffered the weaknefs of his fpirits, or the ftrcngth of his prejudices to miflead his judg- ment, in estimating one mo/l important branch of our national force, they may have given the fame gloomy tinge to his reprefentation of our other r -arces alfo ; and that he may have been almpft as much miftaken in the ftate of our finances as in the ftate of our population. At lealt, this confi- deration furnifhes the flrongeft reafon againft ad- mitt 1 ng any of the principles, of what may be called his political arithmetic, without a thorough e *minaticn, or adopting any of his difcouraging cjnclufions. without great caution and confider- able deductions. ^ hat this kingdom is at prefent in very critical circumftances ; that our enemies are powerful and nrjierous; that our taxes are heavy, and our public debts and incumbrances -great, it is im- poffible to deny. But whoever will allow himfelf to review with coolncfs, deliberation, and impar- tiility the whole of our fituation 1 oth abfolute and relative, will, I conceive, find realon to think that the pidure which has been drawn of us, as an en- feebled. f 155 ) feebled, impoverimed, and utierly ruined and de- voted people, is overcharged and exaggerated be- yond all bounds of credibility and truth. We have in former times fhewn ourfelves greatly fuperior to France and Spain united. Since thofe times it appears that the population of England has ad- vanced more than twice as faft as theirs. Scotland and Ireland, judging from the lateft and beft wri- ters on the fubjeft, have probably multiplied with almoft the fame rapidity. This addition of inter- nal ftrength will, I truft, be more than a balance for the increafed number of our external enemies. We have already made fuch efforts againft them as have aftonifhed all Europe ; and there is little reafon to doubt, but that with the blcfling of pro- vidence upon our councils and our arms ; with firmnefs in our governors, with intrepidity in our commanders by fea and land, and unanimity a- mong ourfelves, we mall be able to refift effectually the formidable confederacy that has been perfi- dioufly formed againft us ; and that we mall nei- ther want men, money, fpirit, nor perfeverancc to continue the war into which we have been moft unhappily and unwillingly drawn, till we can clofe it by that moft defirable of all events, a fafe and honourable peace. The END. ADDENDA. TH E following Articles, which are much too important to be omitted, came not time enough to be arranged in their pro- per places. REGISTER EXTRACTS. Firft Period. Second Period. Counties. Berks. Pari flies. Read.St.Giles i St TV^^rv Bapt. 1301 1440 1261 878 277 809 73 2 1488 69 1189 2302 700 112 2036 Bur. 1130 1213 J 33 23 660 *395 803 207 686 906 1189 49 8<59 2195 609 87 1733 Bap. 1649 1320 68 781 1764 9 J 3 574 1615 1312 2361 86 1129 2625 879 *57 6,575 Bur. 1896 1676 l6 99 2 9 1626 908 498 1946 1617 1920 77 827 2573 676 60 5408 St. Laurence -Milton loyvs. Wendover Avlefbury Towcefter Crick St. Nicholas St. Peter's Witney Drayton ~) Par flow 10 > years ) Bampton Shrewfbu- ? ry,St.Chad ) Bucks. Northampton. Nottingham Oxford. Salop. Rodington Wai fall Stafford. Total 16441 1,5074 2,5238 24150 ADDENDA Baptifms Burials. Firft Period 16432 15074 Second Period 2 5 2 38 24150 Increafe 8806 9076 Thefe feventcen parifiies are increafed by more than half of their original number; and on the moft moderate eftimate. have added near 15,000 to their inhabitants fince the revolution. But the town and parifh of Sheffield, as feems extremely probable from information I have juft received from thence, has acquired an addition of almoft 15,000 people during the laft 13 years; and it alfo appears from the regifter extracts with which an ingenious and very obliging clergyman of that place has favoured me, that its annual average of baptifms 200 years ago was lefs than 100, whereas now it exceeds 1000. HOUSES. Counties. Parishes. Houfcs returned. Total. Northampton Towcefter 157 395 Berks Reading, St. Giles 189 653 St. Mary 210 304 Bucks Aylefbury 425 653 - Wcndover 152 230 Stafford Walfall 667 1600 1800 3835 Here ADDENDA. Here, upon an average, not half the houfes in thefe feveral places are reMirned. If I have mif- underftood the information of any of my corre- fpondents they will be kind enough to correft me. ADVERTISEMENT. * "'HE following paper, with the commu- -* nication of which I have been favoured by a perfon of high rank and the moft dif- tinguifhed abilities, having come too late to be inferted in its proper place, I have given it intire to the reader, who will im- mediately fee that it was drawn up by the hand of a mafter. APPENDIX TO THE EXAMINATION O F DR. PRICE'S ESSAY O N POPULATION. A a APPENDIX. Examination of Dr. PRICED Argument for a decreafe of People, deduced from a de- creafe of the hereditary and temporary Excife. DR. PRICE has referred to the account of the produce of the hereditary and tempo- rary excife as affording a ftrong evidence of his propofition, that the number of the people in England is confiderably diminimed fmce the revolution. If an accurate account is taken of the amount of a tax upon an article of general confumption at two different periods, the comparifon will af- ford a fair ground to judge of the relative numbers of the confumers; but, in ftating fuch account it is neceflary ift, to take periods fufficiently long to exclude the operation of temporary or accidental caufes. 2dly, to enquire whether all the circum- ftances attending the perception of the tax are the fame in both periods. Dr. PRICE has chofen to compare the average amount of the duties payable under the name of hereditary and temporary excife for three years end- ing in 1689, with the average amount of four A 3 years years ending in 1768; the refult of which com- parifon he finds to be a diminution of at leafl 100,000 1. per annum. It has been already fliewn in the appendix to Mr. EDEN'S letters to Lord Carlifle, that a very different conclufion would follow from a compa- rifon of the average amount of other years during the fame aera; but it may alfo be fhewn with as much certainty as belongs to arguments of this nature, that upon a full and fair ftate of the evi- dence which the excife accounts afford, there ari- fes a clear proof of an increafing population from the revolution to the year 1778, and it is believed that the two laft years would confirm this inference. A period of 18 years is fufiiciently long to pre- vent any variation from feafons, or other tempo- rary caufes, that may affeft confumption. and in order to avoid any errors that may arife from ftating the amount of the fums paid upon this tax (which includes other articles befides malt liquor) it will be proper to ftate the quantity charged with the duty. StrongBeer. Small ditto For 18 years ending at Midfummer 1701, the quan- tity of beer charged was on an average 3,958,233-2,422,928 For 18 years ending at Midfummer 1778 4 J 1 3 2 J 8 57" 1 8l 5: 2 75 The . ( vii ) The heer thus charged is not the whole quantity confumed, for that which is brewed for private ufe is not liable to the duty. No juft comparifon can therefore be made without fome eftimate of the extent of the private brewery in each of the two periods compared, for if it has been greater in the one period than in the other, the comparifon would evidently lead to an erroneous conckifion as to the numbers of the confumers. In the firft period the duty faved by brewing at home was only 2s. 6d. per barrel of ftrong, and 6d. per barrel of fmall beer. In the latter period the duty amounts to 8s. upon the barrel of ftrong and is. 4d. upon the barrel of fmall beer; it feems therefore reafonable to fuppofe that the quantity made in the private brewery mould have increafed in the latter period, becaufe the faving is a much more confiderable inducement to undertake the trouble and rifk of it. If this fuppofition is juft we mall find the proof of it in an increafe of the duties upon malt and hops, to which beer made for private confumption is equally liable with that made for fale. A duty of 6d. per bufhel upon malt was firft impofed in the year 1697 anc ^ excepting the years 1700 and 1701 has been continued to the prefent time. In 1760 an additional duty of 3d. per bu- fhel was impofed, of which an account is kept dif- tincl: from the old duty. A comparifon of the amount amount of the old duty in the firft 18 years and in the laft 18 years is, in one refpeft, difadvanta- geous to the latter period, for an increafe of duty has a tendency to diminifh confumption, and it is fuppofed that the additional malt duty had occa- fioned the common brewer to make a larger ufe of other materials for increafing the ftrength of their beer. The average produce of the 6d. per bufhel on malt for the firft 18 years is 584.206 Jn the laft 18 years it is 653,190 The increafe is 68,984 . . > .",'.. j d The duty on hops commenced in the year 1711, the average of the firft 18 years is 54^229 Of the laft 18 years it is 76,025 The increafe is -*- 21,796 The increafe upon the malt is more than the i -91)1 part, that upon the hops' is above i-3d. But the latter period of this duty has a confiderable advan- tage over the former, as it includes the duty on hops exported to Ireland; though the quantity of hops exported will by no means account for the difference between the increafe of hops and malt, and fomething ought to be allowed for the facility pf finding a cheap fubflitute for the malt, yet I fhali fhall take the increafe of the private brewery, to be no greater than what the malt duty proves it, viz. i-gth fince the beginning of this century. But there arc other circumftances to be taken into confideration before a fair comparifon can be formed between the two periods for the purpofe of afcertaining their relative population. The confumption of beer may be leflened by the intro- duction of Ionic other beverage. Without affording any argument that the number of the containers is diminished, and it becomes neceffary to inquire whether any other liquors are ufed in greater quan- tities in the one period than in the other ? Wine, cyder, fpirits and tea, may each of them in fomc degree fupply the place of beer. Wine, being an high priced commodity, and the duty upon cyder not having been impofed up- on the maker, except from 1763 to 1767, during which period the amount was very considerable, no cftimate of thefe articles can be formed that would apply to this argument. We only know in general that the ufe of both is not leffened of late. The quantity of fpirituous liquors diftilled and imported is very greatly increafed. In 1685 duty was paid for ,593.645 gallons diftilled -------- 1,414,614 ditto imported In 1778 duty was paid for 2,954,000 gallons diftilled. ------- 2,102,000 ditto imported Tea ( * ) Tea is now more generally confumed than even fpirits among the lower ranks of people ; and there can be no doubt that it muft interfere with the confumption of malt liquor, it fupplies the place of the morning draught at leaft, and it is only in the ufe of the perfons whofe circumftances are very eafy that it can be rated as a fuperfluity. The quantity confumed about the beginning of this century was very moderate. If we only take an account of what pays duty, the quantity con- fumed is now about fix millions of pounds, but it is very well known that a large proportion both of the fpirits and tea confumed pays no duty. The account of the number of barrels charged with the excife duty in the two periods compared prefentsus with an increafe upon the ftrong beer of 174,624, and a decreafe upon the fmall of 607,653 That is upon the whole quantity ftrong and fmall 433.029, which is nearly a i-i5th. The increafe of the ftrong beer certainly fhews an increafe of confumption, 'but the decreafe of the fmall beer does not in like manner prove that the quantity confumed is diminifhed. DAVENANT has obferv- ed pag. 192, and the fat is certain, that the in- creafe of the excife duty had given rife to a prac- tice of brewing the liquor of an extraordinary ftrength to avoid the duty, and that liquor being afterwards reduced, the quantity is much greater than it appears from the charge. On this confi- deration deration, it might fairly be argued that the quan- tity confumed is greater upon the whole by an increafe of 174,624 barrels ftrong, notwithftand- ing the apparent decreafe of the fmail beer charged. But in the above account there is a great fallacy, for an alteration took place in the collection duty, which greatly diminifhed the nominal quantity charged. By an aft of the jft of King William c. 24. the brewers are entitled to an allowance of i-ioth upon every gage made upon the warm worts, and 34 gallons are allowed for the barrel of ftrong beer which before was rated only at 32 gallons, the barrel of fmall beer was at the fame time re- duced from 36 gallons, its former rate, to 34, the regulations as to the meafure affected only the country brewery, the London brewery being al- ready upon the fame footing, but the allowance of i-ioth affected the whole. The commiffioners of excife in a memorial pre- fented to the treafury on the 291!! of March, 1690, while this meafure was under consideration, com- pute the diminution of the duty that would take place upon account of the i-ioth allowance at 52,655!. and upon the .alteration of the meafure 29,675!. DAVENANT indeed, in his EJTay on the Manage- ment of the King's Revenues, vol. i. 185, difputes the the accuracy of this calculation, and allows the difference to be only 30.000!. but, one objeft of that eflay being to decry the conduct of the com- miflioners of excife, his obfervations muft be re- ceived with fome caution, and it is remarkable that he proves the accuracy of their calculation, in one refpeft, though he is not aware of the in- ference ; for he fays in p. 186, " The duty in "London has decreafed 17001!. on a medium " of 7 years ; in the country on a like medium "155 592!. why mould the fall in London be but cj i-ioth of the general decreafe and yet the duty " in London be about i-4th part of the whole " excife." He proceeds then to account for this from mifmanagement, whereas it is evident that the whole London brewery, being only affecled by the i-ioth allowance, the decreafe there ought to be no more than he flates it. He likcwife ftates, that the duty fell in the firft year after this regu- lation 60,653!. But in truth upon a medium of feveral years the calculation of the commifnoners is fully proved to be very moderate. In order to form a fair comparifonof the quan- tity of beer confumed during the two periods com- pared, the number of barrels charged before the year 1690 ought to be reduced to the prefent flandard of allowance and meafure. The morteft method of finding the proportion that ought to be dedu&ed on this account, will be, be, to take the amount of the duty in thefe years, and deduct from it the amount of the di- minution which took place in confequence of the alteration of the allowance. DAVENANT p. 175 has given an account of the produce of the duty on beer and ale in each year from the year 1683 to the year 1696. The average of fix years from 1685 to 1689 both inclufive, omitting the fractions of a pound 13644,994!. If we fuppofe the commiflioners to be right in their calculation, which rates the probable diminu- tion at 82,331!. the amount is nearly i-gth, but taking it only at 60,653!. the decreafe of the firft year after the alteration took place it is more than i -nth, or taking it even at 30,000!. the difference would greatly exceed the nominal decreafe of 433,029 barrels, the duty on which at 6d. would only be 10825!. The real quantity of beer brewed for fale in the laft period of 18 years muft then exceed that which was brewed "in the firft period. If we take into confideration the increafe of the private brewery, proved by the increafe of the duties on malt and hops, and the great additional confumption of fpirituous liquors and tea, there can remain no doubt, that as far as an increafed confumption of articles of general and almoft ne- ceffary ufe proves an increafe of confumers, the number C number of the people of England muft be much greater no\v than at the time of the revolution. It may be faid however that an increafe of con- fumption proves only that a greater degree of wafle or intemperance prevails at one period than at another, and though the proceeding obfervations may be fufficient to refute Dr. PRICE'S argument, they do not eftablifh the contrary doftrine. An inquiry into other articles that are not the obje&s of any appetite, nor afford the means of intemper- ance will mew what weight there is in this ob- jedion. The duty on leather took place in 1712. The amount of the firft full year was 149,967!. By a gradual increafe, except whilft the diftemper amongft the horned cattle prevailed, the duty has rifen to 229,656!. the amount of the year ending at Midfummer 1778. The duty on candles took place in 1711, the firft full year it produced 118,925!. By a gra- dual rife that duty came to be in 1778, 205,776!. It was unneceffary to take any average of dif- ferent periods for thefe duties, becaufe they have been regularly advancing. One might add to this another, circumftance, that the number of victual- lers has decreafed from 47,343 the average for the years 1687, 1688, and 1689, to 31,814 The number of common brewers has at the fame time increafed increafed, though not in fo great a proportion, but the quantity of beer now brewed by the com- mon brewers is about 3-4ths of the whole, whereas the victuallers formerly brewed 3-5ths of the whole. The brewer cannot by law retail the beer in fmall quantities; the victualler does, and if there are fewer retailers, the inference feems pretty fair that the beer confirmed at the publick houfe, bears a lefs proportion to that which is bought for domettick ufe than it did formerly. This is not offered as a very conclufive argument, nor would it have afforded matter of obfcrvation, if Dr. PRICE had not taken notice of the decreafe of victuallers as arguing a decreafe of confumption. The greater part of the confumption of leather and of candles is a matter of mere neceffity ; the increafe upon thefe duties mews, that it would be unjuft to afcribe to excefs in living, the great increafe of the quantity of li- quors confumed; it may probably be true that more is confumed by an equal number of people now than at the time of the revolution, becaufe they can better afford it, but the increafe upon the various articles which are become matters of ne- ceffary ufe, is too confiderable to be accounted for folely upon that reafon. FINIS. University of California SOUTHERN REGIONAL LIBRARY FACILITY Return this material to the library from which it was borrowed. s Mi A 000090812 9 ,.\\. uni LIU/// - <$ s < <3 -T rS