. CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION CIRCULAR 3 80 MARCH, 1948 CALIFORNIA TURKEYS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK, 1948 EDWIN C. VOORHIES RELATIVE CHANGE IN. NUMBER OF TURKEYS RAISED, CALIFORNIA, 929 - 1944 LEGEND 1944 AS PERCENT OF 1929 I | LARGE DECLINE LESS THAN 70 Faixi| SMALL DECLINE 71 - 99 F 77 ! MODERATE INCREASE 100 - 199 } LARGE INCREASE 200 " 249 VERY LARGE INCREASE- MORE THAN 250 THE COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY The Turkey Industry has been marked by many important changes during the past 15 years. This circular discusses these changes and shows what effects they have had on turkey raising in California and in the country as a whole. THIS IS TH£ STORY THIS IS WHAT IT MEANS Improved management practices have re- sulted in increased commercial hatchings and fewer death losses. Production in this state has changed from a side-line to a main enterprise. Since 1943, California has raised more turkeys than any other state. California now produces more turkeys than it needs for home consumption. This change from a deficit to a surplus state has caused a less favorable price in Califor- nia than in the country as a whole. Improved advertising and merchandising methods, and increased storage facilities, have done much to make turkey a year- round food item instead of just holiday fare. This means that turkey is now in continu- ous competition with chicken and red meats on the market. The turkey producer should watch these competing foods closely since changes in their price picture will affect his own. Heavier birds have been developed for the restaurant and freezer trade, but smaller ones are in demand for family use. The industry would do well to keep in mind the advantage of giving the buyer turkey in "smaller packages." The problem of feed supplies is the most serious one facing the producer. At present, feed is scarce, and prices are high. It may be two or three more years before feed supplies increase and feed prices go down. Foreign demands and domestic har- vests will determine what happens here. Because of an early season, prices rose sharply for the Christmas, 1947, market. Taking advantage of this, many producers sold a number of their breeder hens. As a result, the state's present supply of breeder hens is far below the average for the war years, and will probably drop back to the 1937-1941 figures. The U. S. Department of Agriculture's ten- tative goal for 1948 is 30.5 million turkeys raised in the United States. This is about 12 per cent less than the number actually raised in 1947. This means fewer birds available, at higher prices, but these prices will probably not continue beyond 1948. And net returns in the next few years may fall considerably be- low the high profits of 1943-1946 since, in spite of high prices, there will be fewer birds to sell. CALIFORNIA TURKEYS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK, 1948 EDWIN C. VOORHIES Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station and on the Giannini Foundation TURKEY PRODUCTION California is now a surplus state in turkey production. Since 1943, it has raised more turkeys than has any other state. Production Changes Confusion and misunderstanding exist among turkey growers and others with regard to the meaning of some of the terms used in describing production changes. Before 1929, estimated numbers of turkeys on farms on a given date, in certain isolated years, were reported by the Census Bureau. This made it difficult, if not almost impossible, for a turkey grower to know of the frequent changes taking place in his own state or in the country as a whole. Since 1929, total numbers of turkeys have been estimated for the country and its subdivisions each year. These data have not been so useful as might be thought because of changes in production methods, especially in the raising and purchase of poults. The turkey raiser is now able to get along with far fewer breeding birds than formerly. Since 1937, separate estimates have been made of the breeder hens on farms in addition to the total number estimates. The commercial producer of turkeys is concerned with the number of birds actu- ally being raised by all growers. Annual estimates are now made of turkevs raised each year. Again there is at times some misunderstanding of terms used. To state that 5,762,000 turkeys were raised in Cali- fornia in 1945 does not mean that this number was actually eaten in that year. Every grower knows that many of the tur- keys raised in 1945 were added to breed- ing flocks and that a considerable number of these birds were sold in 1946. Some- times it is possible that the number sold in one year may be larger than the num- ber raised in that same year. For example, birds intended originally for breeding purposes may be sold or eaten. In some years a considerable number of birds may be saved to build up the breeding flock. No exact data on turkeys consumed each year are available, but a simple cal- culation can be made. Annual estimates are made of turkeys eaten on farms, to- gether with the number sold. The turkeys sold by farmers are eaten in most in- stances by persons other than those on farms. The number sold plus the number eaten on farms gives a fair estimate of the approximate number of turkeys eaten in the country annually. United States There was a downward trend in turkey numbers in the United States from 1890 to 1920. In 1890, 11 million turkeys were counted on farms, while in 1920, this number had dropped to only three and one-half million. In the 1920's this down- ward trend in numbers was arrested, and in the 1930's the upward trend was rapid. This increase continued until 1945 when [3] CVJ (J) CC O < o Q Z < erf UJ __ * S y S \ - Q UJ co h "c - CC 2; 1 to 1 UJ ern SI . (/ _ tr V \ — > UJ P x V 5 * - oc 'c X. W o> 3 "° H H- u_ O O 1 1 CO 1 (T ^ ^ - UJ \k 00 • \ tt^ 2 11 1 ' en 3 <7> CVJ en #1 en Z — / £ c — ^^^% 5 < X i; • UJ > h- Q. i O O y • CO a. i X • T3 u_ | 1 • • • E 3 * 1 1 J\ / . rr 1 1 \ " ^ : UJ Q. o iii 1 ° 1 » CO ;s \ < or [ * 1 1 1 CO a> 1 \ > ) \ ui CO rr £ 1 1 1 1 • 3 to i \ 1- % 1 1 \ • 1 It / 1 • * / • 1 i O in O O SNomiw CVJ SA3*um jo yaaiMfiN all records of production were broken, with approximately 44,221,000 reported raised. Sixteen years earlier, in 1929, pro- duction was estimated at 18,476,000. The increase in the sixteen years was only slightly less than 160 per cent. The aver- age number of turkeys raised in the five years 1940-1945 was more than twice the average for 1929-1933. In 1946, numbers raised dropped about 8 per cent below the 1945 record. Although the United States Department of Agriculture announced a goal of 40.38 million turkeys for 1947 (an increase of 6 per cent over 1946) , final returns from 1947 production will probably show a drop of about 16 per cent from the previ- ous year. The number raised, however, will be about 5 per cent above the average for 1939-1943. No one cause, in itself, explains the declines in 1946 and 1947. The 1946 downturn was most pronounced in the three Pacific Coast states, largely because many growers were unable to obtain feed. Because of the number of heavier and older birds sold, the total number of tur- keys actually eaten in 1946 was about the same as in 1945. A factor having con- siderable effect on the 1947 production was the price drop which occurred after Thanksgiving in 1946. Another, and more decisive, factor was the deteriorating rela- tionship between turkey and feed prices. California Available evidence indicates that in all probability California's turkey produc- tion trended downward after 1890. From the census data it would appear that the subsequent upturn got underway in Cali- fornia earlier than in the nation as a whole— probably about 1915. When, in 1929, the number of turkeys raised was estimated, indications were that only Texas, North Dakota, and Minnesota ranked California. From 1929 to 1939, California produc- tion practically doubled, and in the latter year only Texas produced a larger crop. Rapid production continued so that in 1943, the state was first in numbers raised. In pounds of turkey produced, California became the number one state in 1941, and insofar as sales from farms are con- cerned, the first position was attained in 1940 and held through 1947. In 1945, the number of birds raised was 5.8 million, or about one eighth of the United States total. Numbers raised in 1946 dropped by 1,152,000 birds, or 20 per cent from 1945. The number consumed on and sold from farms declined by only 741,000, in- dicating that inventories were being cur- tailed. The 1946 drop was primarily the result of a severe feed shortage. Prelimi- nary 1947 estimates indicate a drop of almost 700,000 birds from 1946-a de- crease of approximately 15 per cent. This is about the same rate of decrease as was estimated for the nation. Although the California production goal of the United States Department of Agriculture for 1947 was almost the same as for 1946, the actual production was lower. Farm Income from Turkey Production Farmers as well as organizations have expressed an interest in the relative im- portance of certain agricultural products as compared with others. Conclusions are often misleading because of a failure to state exact terms of comparison. In 1945, the cash farm income from California tur- key sales was estimated to have been six times that of 1929— while in the United States the income between the two years had increased fivefold. Beginning in 1936, cash income from turkey sales was larger in California than in other states— a position held through 1947. These figures do not include an esti- mate of returns from sales of eggs and poults, nor is the value of turkeys con- sumed on the farms of the growers taken into account. In the period 1944r-1946, the cash in- come from turkeys sold from California farms exceeded that from sales of chick- ens (not including broilers from com- [5] mercial broiler plants) . In 1945, the cash income from turkeys sold was estimated to have been almost half as large as that from chicken egg sales. There was a de- cided decline in 1946 and 1947. What has been stated for California with reference to cash income from turkey sales does not hold for the United States as a whole. The nation's cash income from turkey sales has grown more rapidly than that from farm chicken sales, and in some years (1945) has amounted to almost one half as much. But the cash farm income from turkey sales has grown less rapidly than that from the sales of commercial broilers. These facts show the increasing importance of California in the turkey field as compared with the nation as a whole. Per-capita Production In 1929, approximately 0.15 turkeys per person were raised in the United States. By 1939, this had grown to 0.25, and in the 1945 peak production year it was almost 0.32. The drop to about 0.24 in 1947 put per-capita production back to an average below that for the five years 1939-1943. Because turkeys vary in weight (p. 10) from year to year, and from state to state, more accurate production comparisons could be made if data were based on the pounds of turkey produced per capita. From 1940 through 1946, when such data became available, there was an incease from about 3.8 pounds to almost 5 pounds in the United States. The western states have been heavy producers in relation to population. In 1929, approximately 41 birds per 100 in- habitants were raised, 57 by 1939, and almost 86 in 1945. The 1947 production was only 52— or 60 per cent of the 1945 average. On a poundage basis, the per-capita production in the western states increased from approximately 10 to 12 between 1940 and 1946. Even with the rapid increase in Cali- fornia's population, turkey numbers per 100 inhabitants increased from about 25 in 1929 to 48 in 1939, and to 69 in the peak year of 1945. In 1946 and 1947, there was a drop to 48 and 40, respec- tively. The latter numbers are not high compared with the average for the years beginning in 1936. Between 1940 and Table 1 TURKEYS CONSUMED ON AND SOLD FROM FARMS: CALIFORNIA, WESTERN STATES, AND UNITED STATES Period California Western states United States Relative changes 1929-1933 = 100 Cali- fornia Western states United States Averages : 1929-1933 1935-1939 1940-1944 Annual : 1945 1946 thousands of turkeys 100 168 276 410 356 100 138 211 307 269 100 124 172 219 218 1,374 2,309 3,787 5,629 4,888 4,548 6,281 9,594 13,953 12,254 19,424 24,038 33,364 42,501 42,287 [6] 1946, even with the rapid population in- crease, the number of pounds per capita increased from about 8 to 9. Shifts in U. S. Production Areas Shifts between areas of production have occurred with great rapidity and, as will be seen below, have altered Cali- fornia's position in the industry most markedly. In 1890, the northern and southern sec- tions of the Mississippi Valley contained 50 and 20 per cent of the nation's turkeys, respectively. The Atlantic Coast states ac- counted for some 26 per cent, leaving less than 4 per cent for the eleven western states. By 1920, all major sections of the coun- try except the eight mountain states had lost numbers. The relative position of the western and southern Mississippi Valley states was higher than it had been previ- ously. The industry was moving westward and southward. This movement continued so that by 1929, the south central and north central states each accounted for almost a third of the total turkey crop. The western states by this time were raising over a quarter of the nation's total turkey crop. Production in the south central states changed only slightly during the 1930's when increases were particularly rapid elsewhere. Western production continued to grow, actually and relatively, com- pared with the country as a whole. The largest relative gains in production, how- ever, occurred in the industrial northeast (the north Atlantic states and the east north central states) . The pull toward the West continued during the war period, although again the largest relative production gain was in the north Atlantic states. In 1944 and 1945, the western states led all other areas of the nation in turkey production, and California was in the first place among all states for those two years and for 1946 and 1947 as well. Declines in 1946, compared with 1945, were almost all reported from the three Pacific Coast states and Utah, and were largest in areas of commercial flocks. Lack of feed supplies was responsible. In Table 2 TURKEYS RAISED: CALIFORNIA, WESTERN STATES, AND UNITED STATES Period Averages : 1929-1933 1935-1939 1940-1944 Annual : 1945 1946 1947*... . ] Number raised Relative changes 1929-1933 = 100 California Western states United States Cali- fornia Western states United States thousands of turkeys 100 175 269 410 328 279 100 143 212 313 243 204 1,405 2,465 3,786 5,762 4,610 3,918 4,587 6,572 9,731 14,342 11,134 9,354 19,944 27,006 33,536 44,221 41,109 34,667 100 135 168 222 206 174 Indicated crop. [7] the midwest, however, many small pro- ducers, and even some larger ones, who had adequate feed supplies actually in- creased their turkey offerings. The 1947 production estimates were rather uni- formly lower than those for 1946 in all sections except the north Atlantic and east north central states, where the de- cline was materially less. Shifts in California Production Areas Available evidence indicates that be- fore 1900, two thirds of the state's pro- duction was in the Great Valley. The re- maining third was from sections scattered throughout the state. By 1929, the Great Valley still raised about two thirds of the state's turkeys— the northern part (Sacramento Valley) about 40 per cent, the southern part (San Joaquin Valley) 24 per cent. Southern California followed with about 20 per cent. Between 1929 and 1939, the San Joa- quin Valley and southern California forged ahead with increases of 224 and 206 per cent, respectively. The San Joa- quin Valley counties raised 39 per cent of the state's turkeys in 1939 as compared with 24 per cent in 1929, while produc- tion in the southern California counties rose from 20 to 30 per cent of the state's total in that ten-year period. The Sacra- mento Valley, during that same decade, showed some increase in actual numbers raised but its share in the state's total dropped from 40 to 22 per cent. Outside of the Great Valley and southern Califor- nia, most of the remaining turkeys have been reported from the coast counties (north of Santa Barbara) . By 1944, census returns showed an- other pronounced shift in production. In the San Joaquin Valley, production rose to 53 per cent of the state's total, 45 per cent of this from five counties— Merced, Stanislaus, Fresno, Tulare, and San Joa- quin— which reported 1,840,233 turkeys raised in 1944. Between 1939 and 1944, southern Cali- fornia reported a gain of 100,000 in num- bers raised, but its percentage of the state's production dropped back to 20— the same as in 1929. The Sacramento Val- ley, with only 13 per cent of the state's total, failed to gain in relative importance. The concentration of production in the turkey industry differs from that in the state's chicken and egg industry. Through- out the turkey industry's history, the Great Valley has been the dominant area, with from 60 to 70 per cent of the total production over the past five decades ori- ginating there. This concentration results from certain physical factors, such as the relatively dry climate, nearness to range, irrigated pastures, and grain. The con- centration in the egg industry is more largely in the coastal areas. The produc- tion of chickens as a percentage of the state's total has increased more rapidly in the San Joaquin Valley than elsewhere. FIGURE 2 TURKEYS RAISED CALIFORNIA 1944 aK:.J '■} | 1 DOT- 10,000 TURKEYS [8 RECENT ECONOMIC CHANGES More turkeys are now raised on fewer farms. Sales are year-round instead of at holiday seasons. Demand for light-zveight birds is up. Number of Growers Since 1909, turkey production in the United States has become more centered on fewer farms. The discovery of ways to control Black Head and other diseases, and the development of artificial incuba- tion and brooding have helped encourage larger units. Changes in feeding, and the establishment of modern killing and dressing plants have also worked in this direction. In 1909, 14 out of every 100 of the nation's farmers reported turkeys raised. By 1919, this figure dropped to 10, and twenty years later, to 6. From 1939 to 1944, the number was almost halved, a low of 3 being reached in the latter year. The percentage of farmers in Califor- nia reporting turkeys in 1909 was similar to that reported for the United States. For the following twenty years, the trend was different from that for the entire country, the percentage being 14.3 in 1919 and 14.6 in 1929. During the next ten years, the percentage dropped more than half, to 6.1 in 1939. In the next five years, the state ran counter to the trend in the nation, with an increase to 7 per cent by 1944. Actual growers increased from 8,148 in 1939 to 9,896 in 1944. In Cali- fornia, a number of new turkey ventures have been started since 1939. These new ventures, plus increases in ones already established, have brought California to the front among the turkey-raising states in the nation. Production per Farm The general decline in the number of growers in the United States has been accompanied by a pronounced increase in the number of birds raised per farm. In 1929, some 26 birds were reported raised by each grower, and by 1944 the number had grown to 140. Between 1929 and 1944, the California per-farm production has grown from 63 to 415 birds. This concentration of large flocks has not been limited to California, as Utah and Iowa growers reported 1,411 and 1,247 birds raised per farm in 1944. TURKEYS RAISED PER FARM, UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA 1929, 1939, 1944 CALIFORNIA 1929 1939 1944 1929 1939 1944 ' • ,..— .:,,. ;••,••••.. m . .. . • : ■■-- . -■■■■■■ 3 UNITED STATES 1 1 1 1 i i i i i i i 100 200 300 400 NUMBER OF TURKEYS Oregon, Minnesota, and Washington re- ported a larger production per farm than California— 594, 573, and 437, respec- tively. From 1929 to 1939, the number of California turkey growers dropped al- most 59 per cent while at the same time, the output per grower increased almost 410 per cent— from 63 to 318 birds. The changes were greatest in the San Joaquin Valley, where the number of turkey rais- ers dropped 70 per cent and total output increased 224 per cent in these ten years. On a farm basis, the average output rose from 44 to 446 birds, an increase of over 900 per cent ! From 1939 to 1944, the number of California growers increased a fifth while the output per farm increased by about a third. The increase in growers over the war years apparently was most pro- nounced in the central and northern coast [9] counties. Southern California was next, while the Great Valley reported only a slight increase in grower numbers, but at the same time doubled its total produc- tion. The most pronounced increase in numbers of turkeys raised per farm in this period was in the San Joaquin Val- ley—approximately 950 in 1944. Southern California followed with 327, a slight de- crease from 1939. The Sacramento Valley also dropped— to 235. The central coast area increased the per-farm output from 188 to 274 in the years mentioned. These data would indicate that during the war period a considerable number of new turkey ventures were started, espe- cially in areas where turkey raising had not previously played an outstanding role. At the same time, the large increase in the size of the flocks of the San Joaquin Val- ley emphasizes the growing commercial importance of that area. Average Live Weight of Turkeys Sold Along with an increase in turkey num- bers raised, there has been a decided in- crease in the average weight of birds sold. In 1930 and 1946, the estimates of aver- age weight for the state were 17.4 and 20.4 pounds, and for the nation, 13.4 and 15.2 pounds, respectively. The signifi- cance of these increases may be lost from view when yearly increases are consid- ered. Comparing 1946 with 1929, the number of birds raised in the nation in the former year was estimated to have been slightly over one and one-third greater than in the later year, while if the estimated weights are compared, 1946 ac- counted for two and one-third more pounds than 1929 estimates. Since 1941, estimates have been made on the comparative weights of hens and toms— the averages in the state being 14.1 pounds for hens and 23.6 pounds for toms. It is probable that the larger pro- portion of the broad-breasted type of birds sold has served to increase weights. It should not be inferred that the de- mand has been solely for a larger bird. In fact, the opposite is true. While tur- keys of large size and broad breast have met with much favor from the freezer trade, restaurants, hotels, etc., there has been a decided demand recently for lighter-weight birds. This demand has come particularly in the holiday season and largely from the family trade. Expansion of Sales Period Sales from farms in recent years indi- cate a trend away from November and December although there is still a con- centration in these months, 67.2 and 63.8 per cent of sales in 1945 and 1946, re- spectively. The preliminary estimate for Table 3 NUMBER OF BREEDER HENS: CALIFORNIA, WESTERN STATES, AND UNITED STATES Number on January 1 Relative changes 1937-1941 = 100 Period California Western states United States Cali- fornia Western states United States thousands 100 188 160 100 165 144 Averages : 1937-1941 349 655 557 771 1,274 1,108 3,818 4,426 4,213 100 1942-1946 116 1947 estimate 110 [10] 1947 indicates that the total proportion of the season's sales in November and De- cember will be 67.1 per cent. The most pronounced increases in sales have oc- curred in October and September. Mar- ketings from farms during those two months varied from 11.2 to 23.2 per cent of the year's total during the years from 1941 to 1946 inclusive. July marketings have been almost negligible while those during the first six months have reached as much as 10 per cent of the year's total. The western states have the widest vari- ation in seasonal sales. California, al- though producing early birds, has led the country in heavy birds marketed in Jan- uary, or after, for the freezer market. Since California has been foremost among those states producing birds for the freezers, this has influenced a trend to- ward larger weights. Flocks of early birds are easier to raise throughout much of the country. They have smaller death losses and are in less danger of early winter storm losses than later-hatched poults. Producers have real- ized that one method for increasing sales was increasing consumption outside of the "holiday period." Another reason for early production in certain years has been the relationship of feed costs to turkey prices. For example, high feed prices and relatively low turkey prices late in 1946 undoubtedly influenced growers toward earlier marketings in 1947. About three fourths of the early turkeys are produced in the western and west north central states, with California, Iowa, and Minnesota leading all states in pro- duction for the October and November markets. Technical and Management Factors Although it does not seem advisable to discuss management factors in this pub- lication, there have been a number of changes within the industry which have had such profound economic effects on its setup that they cannot be ignored. While perhaps no one factor is alto- gether responsible for changing turkey raising, in many sections, from a small side-line to the main, and, in some cases, to the only enterprise, some factors are worth mentioning. Commercial flocks were reported as early as 1888 in Califor- nia, but until recently, production was long confined to small farm flocks. De- velopment and improvement in artificial incubation and brooding have offered an opportunity for expansion and concentra- tion in California and elsewhere. Data released by the California Crop and Livestock Reporting Service in 1947 indicated for the first time how exten- sively turkey poults were used to supply the growers of the state. Evidently the record crop of birds produced in 1945 came largely from the almost 8 million poults produced by commercial hatch- eries in that year. In the following year, the number dropped to less than six and one-half million. The principal area of production is in the Great Valley where 70 per cent of the hatcheries used exclu- sively for turkeys are located. (See figure on cover.) For a good many years, California has been one of the largest shippers of hatch- ing eggs to the middle west, and it may continue in that role if some of the dif- ficulties in the adjustment of supply and demand can be solved. During 1942- 1946 the average number of breeder hens estimated for the state was 88 per cent larger than in the previous five years- compared with a 16 per cent increase for the nation. Advances in knowledge of the preven- tion of certain turkey diseases and a ten- dency for turkey losses to decline with improved management practices have made for fewer physical hazards. While it is extremely difficult to offer exact infor- mation on causes for turkey losses, the fact remains that the percentage of young turkeys lost and of breeding stock lost has dropped. This decline, especially notice- able from 1941 through 1946, no doubt influenced the concentration of produc- [in tion in certain areas. In the United States, 1941-1943, from 27.8 to 29.7 per cent of the young turkeys were lost (per cent of total numbers bought and home-hatched) . In the following three years, this percent- age ranged from 21.7 to 25.7. Similar losses in the western states for the same periods were 21-22 and 16-22 per cent, respectively. Breeding stock lost (per cent of breed- ers on hand January 1) was estimated at from 10.5 to 11.4 in the three years from 1941 through 1943, and 3.3 to 10.4 in the following three years. The western states showed the lowest losses in these six years, 7-8 per cent for the first half of the six- year period, 6-7 per cent for the second half. TURKEY CONSUMPTION California's turkey consumption is higher than the nation's. Cold- storage holdings make turkey avail- able throughout the year. United States Numerous factors, some of which have been described, have led to a steady in- crease of approximately 0.1 pound per year in turkey consumption over the eighteen years from 1929 through 1946. While no consumption data are avail- able for California, certain indications point to a higher consumption in the state than in the country as a whole. For a number of years, the state has been one of surplus turkey production. Per-capita income has been higher than average. The state is dependent upon other areas for a large part of its heavy breeds of chick- ens. Higher relative freezer holdings in the state are reported for recent years. The increase in turkey consumption from 1929 to 1947 is the result of not just one, but of several changes. At present, turkey meat is eaten the year round. For- merly, consumption was limited to two or three holidays— Thanksgiving, Christ- mas, and perhaps New Year's. Many American families eat in restaurants more often than formerly. This has increased turkey consumption, since public eating places can handle large birds readily. During the war years— and after— a num- ber of factors increased demands for turkey. Among these were rationing, the difficulty of obtaining red meats, and the high buying power of the population. It is not definitely known what influence military requirements had, but it might be emphasized that in the four years, Table 4 CONSUMPTION* OF TURKEY AND CHICKEN, UNITED STATES Period Per-capita consumption in pounds Relative changes in per-capita consumption, 1929-1931 =100 Turkey Chicken Turkey and chicken Turkey Chicken Turkey and chicken Averages : 1929-1931 1932-1934 1935-1937 1938-1940 1941-1943 1944-1946 1.8 2 2 2 5 3.1 3.5 4 20.2 19.6 18.1 18.1 24 8 27 22.0 21.8 20.6 21.2 28.3 31 100 125 142 176 198 227 100 94 90 90 123 134 100 97 94 97 129 141 * Civilian consumption. [12] 1942-1945, the armed forces took 320 million pounds of turkey, or almost 15 per cent of the nation's total production. Although the widening of the mar- keting period has had an influence in expanding the consumption period, con- sumption would not have increased so rapidly without year-round cold storage. Estimates of the Bureau of Agricul- tural Economics indicate that in the early 1930's, less than 25 million pounds of storage turkey were consumed in the United States— less than 5 per cent of the total crop. In 1945 and 1946, in addition to increased holiday demands, consum- ers used more than 50 million pounds of storage turkey— over 10 per cent of the country's annual production. Average United States holdings at the storage peak, from 1943 to 1947, were 87 million pounds, as compared with 19 million in 1932-1936, an increase of about 450 per cent. Corresponding amounts for the three Pacific Coast states were 22 million and 4 million pounds, an increase of approximately 550 per cent. In recent years, about 25 per cent of the freezer supplies have been held on the west coast. With the earlier marketing there has been a decided tendency toward an earl- ier emptying of the coolers— in recent years the low point has been either Sep- tember 1 and October 1 instead of November 1. Recently data have become available which indicate the apparent amount of turkey eaten during the first six months of the years 1941-1946. The average for these six years was approximately 66 million pounds (dressed weight). The estimate for the first six months of 1947 is approximately 110 million pounds. Turkey consumption has undoubtedly been increased by certain improved mer- chandising methods. An increase in frozen eviscerated turkeys has been no- ticeable. In many localities, birds have been in "cut-up" form, such as halves. Wartime requirements resulted in a con- siderable increase in the amount of tur- key canned. Table 5 FARM PRICES OF TURKEYS FOR FOUR SELECTED STATES, 1912-1947, AVERAGE OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER PRICES Years California New York Illinois Texas Differential between California prices and those in: New York Illinois Texas cents per pound Averages : 1912-1915 1916-1920 20.1 32 5 33 8 34.8 19.7 17.9 30 9 34.5 36 3 20.1 34.4 41.3 40.1 23.6 24.0 37 3 48 45 3 15.1 26.4 31.3 29.4 15.7 16.2 29.4 37 5 38.0 11.2 21.9 22.4 22 5 13.1 13 27 3 31 9 33 0.0 -1.9 -7.5 -5 3 -39 -6 1 -6.4 -13 5 -9 + 5.0 +6.1 +2.5 +5.4 +4.0 + 1.7 + 1.5 -3 -1.7 +8.9 + 10.6 1921-1925 + 11.4 1926-1930 +12 3 1931-1935 +6.6 1936-1940 +4.9 1941-1945 +3 6 Annual : 1946 +2 6 1947 +3 3 [13] FIGURE 3 PRICES PAID PRODUCERS FOR TURKEYS AND CHICKENS, CALIFORNIA 40 30 Q Z Z> o Q- cr lu 20 a. (f) i- z UJ o 10 'y ^\ / Turkeys - / /**+* 1/ 0^ \6 ^ Chickens ^^ y 1930 1935 1940 1945 TURKEY PRICES Main factors influencing prices to producers are: consumer buying power; turkeys available; and com- petition from chicken and red meats. Regulatory Measures In any comparison of prices, including those of recent years, we must take into account government support and pur- chasing programs as well as the rulings of the Office of Price Administration. The prices received by farmers were affected by the numerous regulatory measures even though those measures did not always apply to turkeys. Especially important, from the turkey grower's standpoint, were the wartime purchases for use in the armed forces. In November, 1942, turkeys along with chickens (excluding birds weighing less than 3.5 pounds) were brought under a Stabilization Act. This act was designed to support turkey prices at not less than 90 per cent of parity. A support program was announced for 1947. The last date for support will probably be December 31, 1948. In common with other poultry products, turkeys were removed from price controls on July 1, 1946. Producer Prices, United States From 1909 until 1932, prices paid producers for turkeys were reported for the United States and separate states for October, November, December, and Jan- uary. Beginning in 1933, prices were re- ported for all months— some indication perhaps of changes in production, con- sumption, and marketing. Turkey prices in the past have been subject to rather sharp up and down price movements. There were steep price up- trends during and after both world wars— from 14.9 cents per pound in 1915, to 32.0 cents in 1920, and from 15.4 cents in 1940, to 36.2 cents in 1946. [14] Between 1920-1921 and 1924-1925, a price drop of 7 cents was recorded. This was followed by a considerable recovery in the last half of the 1920's. The drop between 1928-1929 and 1933-1934 was even more severe than that in other farm commodities. Although some recovery oc- curred in the latter 1930's, prices were lower than they had been in the corres- ponding period of the 1920's. The 1930's were years of greatly expanding produc- tion. The peak in the postwar price paid to farmers came about October 15, 1946, when a paying price of 40.6 cents per pound was reported. By March 15, 1947, the price had dropped to 29.7 cents. What the total drop would have been without price support is hard to say. Little change in price occurred until September when the new crop of turkeys began to appear on the market. The average 1947 price was only slightly under that for 1946— the result of year-end strengthening. Relative prices for turkeys were higher throughout the 1920's than those for all farm products (or for all commodities) when compared with the 1910-1914 aver- age. The decline during the depression of the early 1930's was relatively greater than that for farm prices in general. In the latter 1930's, turkey prices were a shade lower relatively than general com- modity prices, but relatively above gen- eral farm prices. From 1940 through 1943, turkey prices rose relatively higher than either general farm prices or gen- eral commodity prices. Since 1943 and through 1947, turkey prices have leveled out in a different way from general farm prices or general commodity prices. Producer Prices, California Between 1909 and 1938, California tur- key prices averaged higher than those for the United States. From 1912 through 1931, California prices were approxi- mately 6 cents higher than those for the United States. During the next seven years, when the state's turkey industry was growing rapidly, prices averaged about 3 cents over those in the country as a whole. In 1939, the state's average price to producers fell below that for the United States for the first time. This dip below the national average continued through 1940. From 1941 through 1943, the state again topped the average of the country, but beginning with 1944 and through 1946, a lower than the average nationwide price has prevailed. Geographic Shift in Prices Before 1920, highest producer prices were reported from the Pacific Coast and North Atlantic states, while the lowest were found in the western and southern Mississippi Valley states. Comparisons between producer prices in some of the states will show a few of the price changes which have come about over the last three or four decades. Texas and Oklahoma growers, from 1912 through 1914, were receiving the lowest prices in the United States— slightly over 11 cents per pound. California and New York producer prices were reported at over 20 cents. With the shifting of turkey production westward, a differential in favor of New York began to show up. Since 1914, New York pro- ducers have reported higher prices than California for every year except 1926. While Texas and Oklahoma are still low-price areas, the greatly increased pro- duction elsewhere has narrowed price dif- ferences between those states and Califor- nia. Producer price comparisons between Illinois and California show that pro- ducer prices in the former state have im- proved to a greater extent than have those in California in the past two decades. Prices for Tom and Hen Turkeys Until the last half of the 1930's, there were no great differences between paying prices for young hen and young torn turkeys at either Los Angeles or San Francisco. They have only been wide since 1937. In November, 1940, at San Francisco, paying prices for live young 15] FIGURE 4 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF FARM PRICES OF TURKEYS, AVERAGE 1943 - 1946 toms averaged 16 cents; for young hens, 24.6 cents. In December, 1947, at Los Angeles, corresponding prices averaged 34 and 43 cents, respectively. There seems to be rather conclusive evidence that the family trade has de- veloped a preference for lighter birds. More of these are available when the demand for heavy birds for the freezers is not strong. This demand for a smaller- sized turkey has come about because, though American families have increased in number, their average size has declined. In 1946, the weight of hens sold in the United States was estimated at 13.8 pounds— toms at 21.9. During the war years, the production of heavy turkeys was very high. The trend at present is apparently back toward a higher per- centage of mediums and small birds. This is shown primarily by an interest in Belts- ville Small White turkeys. Large-scale commercial producers demand broad- breasted Bronze turkeys, which means larger birds. Seasonal Variation in Price Among the factors influencing the sea- sonal variation in price is the maturity of the birds. In some years, because of cli- matic and other natural factors, a smaller percentage of the crop is available for market before Thanksgiving than in other years. When maturity is normal or above, there is likely to be less price fluctuation during the marketing season, provided there is fairly accurate information on totals to be marketed. When maturity is slow, a smaller number of turkeys at the beginning of the season will probably sell at a price considerably above the season's average, and the large number available at the season's end will cause a lowering of prices. In 1947, turkey marketings of the coun- try were earlier than usual. The propor- tion marketed before November was par- ticularly large. The effect of this situation showed up clearly in California markets. For example, prices on young hens on the 16] FIGURE 5 TURKEY FEED -PRICE RATIOS* UNITED STATES 1933 - 1947, CALIFORNIA 941- 1947 935 1940 1945 Number of pounds of feed equal in value to one pound of turkey. Los Angeles market moved up 5 cents per pound between Thanksgiving and Christ- mas, 1947. Attention has been called to the in- crease in the number of turkeys in cold storage, especially since 1940. The supply of turkeys in storage in the future will have considerable influence on price- may, in fact, change the seasonal price picture. Large holdings at the time early turkeys are coming onto the market would tend to lower prices. At times (1944-1946) , even the amount in storage at the normal low point in holdings— September 1 or October 1— will have an effect on prices during a part of the holiday period. Factors Influencing Turkey Prices Changes in almost all phases of the tur- key industry have been so rapid that few intensive detailed studies have been made of the factors influencing annual prices. Among the supply factors, the number of turkeys available is the main one in- fluencing price. Over a period of time, the relationship between numbers pro- duced and the human population has had an influence. The supply of and prices for all food- stuffs has an influence on turkey prices. The most intensive competition is offered by the number of chickens and broilers produced. A comparison between turkey and chicken prices to producers indicates a close correlation between the two. There is no conclusive evidence to show that supplies of red meats influence turkey prices, but it seems reasonable to assume that they do. Now that turkey is available through what was once considered out-of- season production and more storage birds [17] are used, the consumer has a greater opportunity to compare prices. From 1941 into 1947, a period when turkey became a possible daily article of diet in many localities, beef, pork, and lamb prices undoubtedly had some influence on turkey prices. The amount of money available to peo- ple for spending is one of the dominant factors affecting the level of prices re- ceived by growers. The amount which the average individual in the United States could spend dropped sharply from 1929 through 1933. Although there was a steady increase after the latter year, it was not until 1941 that the 1929 level was reached. From 1941 through 1947, there was so great an increase that the amount available for each person to spend in 1947 was over twice what it had been in 1929. Before World War II, turkey prices reacted as do most prices for the luxury or semiluxury groups of foodstuffs. Al- though this partly explains some of the price movements which prevailed before the war, the question arises as to whether turkeys will continue to hold this position —as a luxury or semiluxury. Unfortunately, retail prices for turkeys are not available for study. In the prin- cipal cities of California, turkeys have been increasingly on display in butcher shops along with red meats. Checks on advertisements indicate that more adver- tising has appeared in the newspapers for the first ten months of 1947 than has ap- peared in similar periods previously. There can be no question but that in the minds of many consumers, turkeys are no longer a luxury or a semiluxury item when comparisons are made between red meat and turkey retail prices. Aside from the number of turkeys avail- able for market and the production of chickens and red meats, the chief demand factor affecting turkey prices during the next few years will be domestic consumer purchasing power. While national income remains near the high average of 1943- 1947, turkey prices will probably be higher than the lower level of the prewar years. Considering the available evidence, it would appear that turkey growers' net returns from 1947 on, and for the next few years, may fall considerably below the highly profitable average of 1943 through 1946. While it is not the purpose of this series of publications to offer marketing advice to growers, it would seem that one of the problems presented to the industry is that of offering consumers turkey in "smaller packages." Except at the holiday season, most families are not likely to be willing to purchase an entire bird. Aside from the weight of even a small carcass, the amount of money required for an entire bird is usually large when compared with a chicken or suitable cut of red meat. From the standpoint of supplying tur- keys, one factor stands out : FEED PRICES Prices continue high. Supplies are still affected by foreign demands. In two or three years, there may be more feed at lower prices. Studies made by the Agricultural Ex- tension Service of the University of Cali- fornia indicate that feed costs may reach as much as 70 per cent (and over) of the total production cost of turkeys. This in- dicates that feed prices will be factors in determining the location of production. Data on a comparison between feed costs and turkey prices are available for the entire country since 1933. The general tendency was for turkey values to com- mand more in grain values through 1945. During 1946 and 1947, turkey values in terms of grain were definitelv lower (fig. 5, p. 17). In the five years 1941-1945, turkey- feed price ratios for the state and nation [18] were very close— on the average, one pound of turkey in the United States was equal in value to 10.5 pounds of grain, while in California, the ratio was 10.3. In both 1946 and 1947, the comparisons be- came more unfavorable for California. For example, the turkey-feed price ratio for the state in 1947 had dropped to 6.6 as compared with 7.7 for the nation. Turkey growers are concerned, and rightly so, over future feed prices. At present (February, 1948) there may be little likelihood of much lower feed prices until the year's (1948) harvests are known. Carryovers of the 1947 crop are small. The demand for grain from Europe will undoubtedly continue for some few years to come. This will in turn be in- fluenced by production abroad as well as production in the United States. It would appear that in two or three years, given normal crops, the demands from the rest of the world should lessen, and feed may be in greater supply at lower prices. i 8£m-3,'48(A7754s) 19 The PUBLICATIONS CATALOG is issued once a year. It lists the printed publications on farm sub- jects, which are available to all farmers without charge at the College of Agriculture. i If you would like to be placed on the list to receive this catalog without charge, send your name and address to: PUBLICATIONS OFFICE • COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY 4, CALIFORNIA