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THE EUROPEAN WAR AND OUR . 
 OPPORTUNITY IN FOREIGN TRADE 
 
 Address by 
 
 WILLARD/ STRAIGHT 
 
 Bcfote the 
 
 Illinois Manufacturers* Association 
 
 Chicago, Illinois, October 27th, 1914 
 
 NEW YORK 
 1914 
 
THE EUROPEAN WAR AND OUR 
 OPPORTUNITY IN FOREIGN TRADE 
 
 Address of Mr. Willard Straight before the Illinois Manufacturers* 
 Association, Chicago, Illinois, October 27th, 1914. 
 
 It is a privilege to be able to meet and to be permitted to 
 address the members of the Illinois Manufacturers Association. 
 Your progressive spirit and the interest in foreign trade which 
 prompted you to send a delegation to study South American 
 conditions will, I am sure, result to your own profit, just 
 as your example already has been beneficial to the entire 
 country. The able report on South American banking and 
 credit made to the Government by the Chairman of your 
 Foreign Trade Committee, Mr. Hurley, contains information, 
 and is published at a time, which will render it one of the most 
 valuable contributions ever made to the literature of the com- 
 merce of South America. 
 
 Mr. Glenn, your Secretary, in inviting me to be present on 
 this occasion, suggested that you would expect, perhaps, a 
 discussion on Far Eastern trade conditions. I shall be pleased, 
 in so far as I am able, to answer any questions you may to- 
 day care to ask regarding this subject. 
 
 At a time such as this, however, one is tempted to search 
 for the fundamentals of a problem rather than to elaborate on 
 any of its phases. At the risk of appearing here under false 
 pretenses, therefore, I will not touch upon the commercial or 
 political situation in the Orient, but, if you will permit me to 
 do so, shall attempt to analyze our general foreign trade prob- 
 lem as affected by the European war. 
 
 Prior to the outbreak of hostilities in Europe, the pressure 
 of increasing production in this country and the enactment 
 of a competitive tariff had forced some of our merchants and 
 manufacturers seriously to consider the possibility of widening 
 
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their markets. The terms of the Federal Reserve Act, permit- 
 ting the estabhshment of branch banks abroad and making 
 provision for the creation of a discount market for commercial 
 paper in this country, promised some of the financial facilities, 
 the absence of which has handicapped our people heretofore, 
 while to the popular imagination the opening of the Panama 
 Canal marked the inauguration of a new commercial era, and 
 aroused an increasing interest in the possibilities of developing 
 our foreign trade. 
 
 Despite the broad views and the keen appreciation of our 
 needs on the part of some of our great manufacturers, mer- 
 chants, bankers and railway men, and the efforts of organiza- 
 tions such as the Illinois Manufacturers Association, and the 
 Chicago Association of Commerce, however, the mass of our 
 people and the majority of their representatives in Washington, 
 have believed that we in this country were very little concerned 
 with world commerce and the questions of international politics 
 arising therefrom. The producers of our great staples — 
 grain and cotton — realized perhaps that their goods were 
 destined eventually to go abroad, but their experience was 
 confined to their relations with middlemen and bankers who 
 purchased and financed their crops for delivery at, and ship- 
 ment from, the seaboard. 
 
 The war has been responsible for a great awakening. Our 
 friends in the southern and central states, who have heretofore 
 little heeded the fact that their real markets were not Phila- 
 phia or Galveston, New Orleans or New York, have suddenly 
 found their interests directly affected by the conflict on the 
 other side of the Atlantic. Grain shipments have been de- 
 layed, complicated by difficulties regarding settlement due to 
 moratoria , or questions of exchange or neutrality. The bumper 
 cotton crop, instead of being a blessing to the South, has be- 
 come a pressing national problem. Manufacturers who have 
 depended upon materials or articles imported from abroad, 
 have found it impossible to obtain supplies necessary for the 
 continuance of their industries. Producers, farmers, mer- 
 
chants and manufacturers, who for years past have been 
 deaf to the agitation for the up-building of an American 
 Merchant Marine, are now conscious for the first time that 
 shipping facilities, regarding the existence of which they 
 were comparatively indifferent but on which they nevertheless 
 relied, are of vital import to the entire country. Bankers who 
 have been innocent of any knowledge of foreign exchange are 
 now rather resentfully aware that credit is an international 
 commodity and the maintenance of normal exchange rela- 
 tions with Europe, particularly with London, has a direct 
 bearing upon their day to day transactions. 
 
 This situation has produced a nation-wide realization, rather 
 than an appreciation, that the United States has a certain, 
 well-defined place in the mechanism of world-trade, and as a 
 natural corollary has evoked a general feeling that since our 
 competitors are handicapped by the European struggle the 
 United States should have a splendid chance to supply the 
 demand hitherto filled by European exporters. During the 
 past two months, therefore, we have heard great exultation 
 over the wonderful opportunities for the extension of American 
 commerce, and much enthusiastic comment as to the possibili- 
 ties of capturing British and German trade. 
 
 As a matter of fact, aside from the sudden demand for mili- 
 tary supplies, which has brought large orders to some of our 
 industries, the great proportion of our merchants and manu- 
 facturers actually engaged in foreign trade have found their 
 sales decreased, rather than increased, by the war. Exchanges 
 have been disorganized ; shipping was for a time interrupted and 
 is now carried on under rather abnormal conditions, and mora- 
 toria have actually, or in effect, been declared on every side, 
 making collections extremely hazardous. The urgent question 
 at the present time, therefore, is not the extension of our com- 
 merce but the retention of that which we heretofore have had. 
 
 The Administration at Washington with commendable 
 promptitude has endeavored, as far as possible, to meet the 
 ■emergency. Congress has adopted measures designed to en- 
 
4 
 
 courage American owners to transfer to American registry, 
 ships heretofore operated under foreign flags. A Government 
 Bureau for war-risk insurance is already in operation and under 
 the auspices of the Treasury Department bankers have been 
 and are attempting to relieve the exchange situation by 
 underwriting the New York City notes and the establishment 
 of a gold pool. Plans are now being discussed, with the 
 patriotic cooperation of Chicago bankers, which, it is hoped, 
 will enable the Southern farmers to cany that portion of the 
 cotton crop which they are unable to export because of the war. 
 
 American Branch Banks Abroad. 
 
 Even before the outbreak of hostilities, the National City 
 Bank had decided to open branches in South America and this 
 institution, in so far as it has been able, has granted accommo- 
 dation to our merchants engaged in the South American trade. 
 National banks which have signified their intention of entering 
 the Federal Reserve System are now permitted to accept bills 
 of exchange and an earnest effort is being made to facilitate 
 trade movement by the gradual creation of a discount market. 
 
 There has been a pressing need for the establishment of a 
 direct dollar exchange with South America and the Far East. 
 It was proposed to establish a merchants' clearing house for 
 matching South American credits, in the hope that, by virtue 
 of this mechanism we might be able to settle for our large 
 purchases of South American goods by increased exports to 
 that region, rather than by transmitting funds or goods to 
 Europe to liquidate our South American balances as has here- 
 tofore been the practice. 
 
 The suggestion, however, upon careful investigation was 
 found to be impracticable. Our exporters to South America 
 and the Far East are hampered, therefore, not only by the 
 difficulty of making collections, but by the impossibility of 
 securing adequate accommodation in this country from 
 American banking institutions, while importers, who have 
 heretofore settled through Sterling credits, have been penalized 
 
by the prevailing price of London exchange, or greatly em- 
 barrassed by the moratorium in England. 
 
 The present emergency, however, cannot continue indefi- 
 nitely. Our Export trade may be materially lessened; it is 
 inconceivable that it should entirely cease. As the situation 
 more nearly approaches normal, therefore, trade will tend 
 to revert to its old accustomed channels, or will continue to 
 avail itself of such new facilities growing out of present needs as 
 may economically justify their permanent operation. 
 
 Eminence of Sterling Exchange. 
 
 It is folly to hope that, as some enthusiasts have predicted, 
 the United States will soon become the financial center of the 
 world as the result of the war. London has held this position 
 for many years. Commercial bills, covering imports from, 
 and exports to, every comer of the globe, are accepted by 
 London houses and discounted in the London market. China, 
 Japan, Australia, South Africa and South America have been 
 developed chiefly by British capital and must each year pay 
 their toll of interest settlements in London. British merchants 
 are everywhere; British ships on every sea, and although the 
 necessity of maintaining gold reserves and settling balances by 
 gold shipments still persists. Sterling exchange, not gold, in 
 reality to-day constitutes the credit basis for the world's trade. 
 
 There are undeniable advantages in the maintenance of one 
 world credit center. It may be disastrous, however, to be 
 without supplementary credit machinery which may be used 
 in times of emergency. Therefore, while we shall undoubtedly, 
 as in the past, continue in the future to transact a large 
 portion of our foreign business by means of Sterling credits, 
 there would seem to be a chance at the present time to build 
 up exchange relations which may, to a certain extent and for 
 a certain proportion of our trade, render us independent of 
 London credits and the London discount market. This, 
 however, cannot be done in a day, or a week, a month or a year. 
 It will require the development of an American international 
 
banking system, a thorough study of foreign credit conditions 
 and commercial custom, and the education of our own mer- 
 chants and manufacturers in business methods with which 
 they are now generally unfamiliar. 
 
 Characteristics of Our Foreign Traee. 
 
 Our foreign trade should be classified in two general divisions; 
 First, our trade with Europe, which is mainly made up by the 
 exchange of raw for manufactured products, although a consid- 
 erable portion of this trade consists of both the import and ex- 
 port of finished articles, and. Second, our trade with the rest of 
 the world which, it may generally be said, consists of the export 
 of manufactured goods and the importation of raw products. 
 The balance of our trade with Europe is heavily in our favor. 
 
 The balance of our trade with South America, Turkey, 
 India and Japan is against us. They must all make large 
 payments in London each year. While taking into consideration 
 European investment in American securities the annual remitt- 
 ances of aliens in the United States to foreign countries and the 
 expenditures of American tourists abroad, it may be generally 
 stated that our trade balance, favorable as far as Europe is 
 concerned, unfavorable as regards the rest of the world, in 
 a way offset each other. In other words, that our large excess 
 of exports to Europe is in reality utilized to meet our own 
 obligations and the interest payments due in London from 
 certain other borrowing nations to which we ourselves are 
 indebted. 
 
 Our attention has been directed toward overseas commerce 
 chiefly owing to our desire to stimulate production in this 
 country. Many of our present troubles are due to the fact 
 that we have been inclined to concern ourselves only with 
 the problem of production, not as a segment in the cycle 
 of foreign trade but as an end in itself. We have in consequence 
 neglected the very vital question of distribution. 
 , Foreign owned and operated transportation and ordinary 
 commercial banking facilities have been available and although 
 it has been frequently asserted that American commerce should 
 
not pay toll to such foreign bankers and shippers, the majority 
 of our manufacturers and merchants have been content to 
 let well enough alone. 
 
 It was to be expected that the war would interfere with our 
 trade with the belligerent nations. Our dependence upon 
 London exchange, however, has in addition seriously pre- 
 judiced our sales to South America and the Far East, with 
 which regions, had proper facilities existed, we might reasonably 
 have hoped that our trade would have increased because of 
 the curtailment or cessation of European exports. 
 
 The war, therefore, in addition to adversely aff ectingproduction 
 in this country has forced upon us an appreciation of the inti- 
 mate interdependence of the three main elements of foreign trade 
 — Production, Transportation and Financing, — First, of pro- 
 duction; Second, of goods in transit, and. Third, of settlement. 
 
 If we really wish seriously and effectively to engage in, and 
 extend, our foreign trade, we must study all the factors by 
 which this problem is affected. 
 
 An American Merchant Marine. 
 
 Although sufficient bottoms are available at the present time, 
 the complications regarding contraband and neutrality have 
 demonstrated the desirability, if not the necessity, of building 
 up an American Merchant Marine, the existence of which would 
 have done much to maintain uninterrupted shipping facilities 
 with Europe and have enabled us to carry on our trade with 
 neutral countries. 
 
 I have no desire to enter into a tariff argument, but unless I 
 am misinformed, the reduction of heretofore protective duties 
 has been justified on the general ground that despite our high 
 cost of labor, we would, because of labor-saving devices be 
 able to maintain our wage scale under a lower tariff and still 
 compete with European industries and their cheaper labor. 
 
 It has been impossible profitably to operate vessels (except 
 under our coastwise monopoly) under the American flag be- 
 cause the cost of labor left no margin of interest return on 
 capital invested. 
 
8 
 
 The present navigation laws are designed to maintain the 
 wage scale and living conditions felt to be the due of Americans 
 at sea. There are few labor-saving devices in steam navigation 
 and, even if there were, our owners could not avail themselves 
 thereof, because our navigation laws stipulate that they must 
 employ more, rather than less, men than are required to operate 
 foreign owned vessels. 
 
 Under such conditions investment in steamship lines has 
 offered little inducement to American capital. Government 
 ownership of ships wo aid seem open to the same objections 
 which have been urged against ship-sab sidles. Those most fa- 
 miliar with this subject (among which number I do not include 
 myself) therefore contend that the most direct and practical 
 way in which to create an American merchant marine would 
 be to so modify our navigation laws that American ship-owners 
 may operate on a labor cost which will enable them to compete 
 with the other maritime nations. 
 
 Until we do have a merchant marine, our export trade will 
 be dependent upon foreign bottoms and, because of British 
 preponderance in the carrying trade, as at the present time, very 
 largely upon the ability of the British Navy to retain com- 
 mand of the sea. 
 
 American Discount Market. 
 
 Our system of commercial banking for foreign trade should be 
 greatly altered and greatly improved by the operation of the 
 Federal Reserve Act and the creation thereunder of a discount 
 market for foreign bills of exchange. The maintenance of 
 this mechanism is so essential and you are so familiar with 
 its purposes, that I shall not venture upon a discussion thereof. 
 I shall, if I may, however, refer particularly to the importance 
 of governmental credits and foreign loans. 
 
 The financing of the transition from the producer to the 
 consumer is, in the case of ordinary commercial transactions, 
 handled automatically as a matter of banking routine. The 
 purchaser may settle at once or arrange for sixty or ninety 
 
days, — or perhaps six months — credit from the merchant, 
 and the merchant, in turn, is either " carried " by his bankers 
 or by the manufacturer who would, in the latter case, also be 
 obliged to rely upon the bank for the necessary accommodation. 
 When the purchaser, however, desires credit for a period of 
 from five to sixty years, it is no longer an ordinary banking 
 transaction; and it becomes necessary for him to obtain funds 
 by the sale, on the market, of stocks or bonds rather than by 
 discounting commercial paper. 
 
 In other words, the purchaser, instead of obtaining credit 
 from the merchant, the manufacturer or the banker, through the 
 banker as his agent, borrows from the investing public. 
 
 Foreign Loans Make Foreign Trade. 
 
 Most of the countries which are now rapidly developing their 
 resources and which cannot themselves finance such develop- 
 ment, must secure money in this way. If we expect to realize 
 the full possibilities of our export trade, we must, by our readi- 
 ness to purchase foreign bond issues, be able to extend to foreign 
 purchasers the accommodation which they now have obtained 
 in the markets of our competitors. 
 
 This, roughly, is the problem of the foreign loan and foreign 
 trade. Its satisfactory solution, which is of vital interest to 
 our merchants and manufacturers, depends primarily upon the 
 attitude of the American investors who, while they may not 
 directly benefit by the increased sale of particular American 
 commodities, will, in addition to the return on their investment, 
 share in the ensuing general prosperity. 
 
 A distinction should be drawn between foreign securities, 
 purchased solely as an investment and foreign loans which, in 
 addition to their investment value, bring to the lender certain 
 collateral advantages. Under the first classification should be 
 included, for example, railway bonds or stocks, issued in the 
 United States, but purchased in Europe for investment or for 
 speculative purposes. In the same category would fall bonds 
 issued by the Russian, Spanish or other Governments, which. 
 
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 though politically and financially independent, have required 
 for their development larger amounts than they themselves 
 are able to supply. 
 
 Foreign holders of such bonds or stocks have not attempted to 
 share in the management of the American railway corporations 
 and have been powerless to control the action of the Russian, 
 Spanish or other Governments, whose needs they have financed. 
 Such loans, therefore, are judged according to their investment 
 value. 
 
 Under the second classification would fall, loans issued on 
 behalf of a foreign government or corporation in the markets 
 of the bankers who negotiate the loan and which, besides the 
 interest return to the actual subscriber thereto, assure certain 
 political advantages to the Government, or returns to the 
 industry, of the lending nation, which are shared directly or 
 indirectly by the investing public. 
 
 Peaceful Influence of Investment 
 France, Great Britain, Germany, the United States, Belgium, 
 Switzerland and Holland, have been the chief lending nations. 
 Switzerland and Holland have been concerned primarily with 
 investing their surplus capital. The British, German and 
 Belgian — even the Russian and Japanese — and particularly 
 the French, Governments, however, have in the past recog- 
 nized the value of their investing power as a political instrument 
 in the great diplomatic struggle in which all have been engaged 
 to secure markets for their foreign trade. 
 
 A highly efficient mechanism of economic production has 
 only a potential value. The aggressive strength of a nation 
 depends on its political and financial stability, and its inter- 
 national position upon its investing power and the disposition 
 of its government effectively to represent its citizens or sub- 
 jects and to assist in the extension of their trade. 
 
 The great lending nations have recognized both these facts. 
 They have utilized their investing power as a national asset. 
 By building up weaker nations through financial reorganization 
 
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 and the development of their resources, they have created 
 for themselves a financial and political influence which they 
 have converted to their commercial advantage. In this task 
 Government, ankers, merchants and manufacturers, sup- 
 ported by the investing public, which the Government repre- 
 sents, and of which the bankers, merchants and manufacturers 
 are an integral part, have cooperated for the common good. 
 
 United States Market for Foreign Securities. 
 
 The United States, at the present time, is the only country 
 with fully developed banking facilities and great financial re- 
 sources, not involved in the European war. Some of the belli- 
 gerent governments have already attempted to sell their 
 securities in this country, it being understood that the proceeds 
 of such sale would be deposited here for the purchase of supplies 
 in the United States. But upon the cessation of hostilities the 
 question of governmental credits and foreign loans may well 
 become acute, for at that time, it is not at all unlikely that a 
 number of the European nations may attempt to obtain funds 
 in the United States. 
 
 The American public has not heretofore purchased foreign 
 securities to any great extent. The interest awakened by, 
 and the information acquired as a result of, the war, however, 
 and the interest return which capital will command at its 
 conclusion, may render our people more inclined to widen their 
 investment field. 
 
 Dollar Exchange. 
 The opening of branch banks in South America and the Far 
 East, by making possible the establishment of a dollar exchange 
 and the creation of commercial paper which should find a 
 market in this country when the provisions of the Federal 
 Reserve Act become operative, should greatly facilitate our 
 trade. Our ability to build up new markets, however, will 
 depend upon the readiness of our investing public to furnish 
 capital for the development of our customers. American in- 
 
12 
 
 vestors in loans to European powers or to Japan would derive 
 merely their interest return. There would be no collateral 
 benefits to the country at large and the funds obtained would 
 be utilized by the borrowing nations in building up the very 
 industries with which our own manufacturers must compete. 
 We should, therefore, now begin to consider whether, when the 
 proper time comes, we will utilize our loaning power to assist 
 the recovery of our competitors or to build up customers in 
 South America and the Far East, where the interest to be 
 earned would be attractive to us and at the same time fair to 
 the borrowing nations. 
 
 Post-Bellum Readjustment. 
 
 The readjustment which will follow the present struggle will 
 doubtless place the European nations on a stable basis which 
 will be maintained at least for many years to come. Our in- 
 vestors, therefore, may feel a confidence in the position of 
 European countries and Japan, which they may not consider 
 justified in the case of China and some of the South American 
 republics which now require funds. Russia, Chile, Brazil and 
 the Argentine, however, will need money for their development 
 and should offer attractive fields for American investment, 
 and promise large returns for American industry if loans are 
 granted on condition that the proceeds be expended in the 
 purchase of American goods. 
 
 The willingness to loan funds to China and certain of the 
 Latin-American Republics, however, will depend largely upon 
 the American investor's confidence in the readiness of our own 
 Government, not to act as their collecting agent, but by 
 diplomatic good offices to support them in case their interests 
 should be imperiled. 
 
 Attitude of Government. 
 At the Foreign Trade Convention, held in Washington last 
 May, the Secretary of State said in part as follows: 
 
 "It is the earnest purpose of the Department of State to 
 
13 
 
 promote commerce and close industrial relations with other 
 countries. So far as it is possible to do so, it is our desire to 
 obtain for Americans equality of opportunity in the develop- 
 ment of the resources of foreign countries and in the markets 
 of the world. It is our intention to employ every agency 
 of the Department of State to extend and safeguard American 
 commerce and legitimate American enterprises in foreign lands 
 so far as it can be done consistently with the sovereign rights 
 of other governments. It should be distinctly understood, 
 however, that this Government in its efforts to advance the 
 interests of its citizens abroad will know no favorites. Honesty 
 of purpose and endeavor, and ability to perform obligations 
 assumed will command at all times its hearty support." 
 
 The assurances given were categorical and should be satis- 
 factory. It has been frequently asserted, however, that our 
 Government has failed to support the interests of American 
 investors in Mexico, and this has been advanced as an argument 
 against any purchase of foreign securities. The Mexican situa- 
 tion is not yet settled. Critics of the Administration, theiefore, 
 are not yet justified in stating that its final solution will not 
 result in the satisfaction of just claims and in the establishment 
 of relations between the United States Government and the 
 Republics of Mexico and Central America which will warrant 
 investors in loaning their capital for the development of these 
 regions. 
 
 Above all, however, if we are to be successful in extending our 
 foreign trade we must think nationally and act nationally; 
 settle our own differences between ourselves; present a united 
 front to the world and bargain collectively with our customers. 
 
 The tariff should be recognized as an instrument to protect 
 American industry at home and as a diplomatic currency to 
 be expended in return for concessions calculated to secure for 
 us access to fresh markets abroad. 
 
 Increased Investing Power 
 It should be realized that our investing power will be in the 
 future, by comparison, greater than ever before, and we should 
 
14 
 
 regard it in the aggregate as a national asset, to be utilized for 
 the benefit of the United States as a whole, as well as for the 
 profit of the individual investor. 
 
 Our Government should not be called upon to protect our 
 fellow-Americans who desire to exploit our neighbors, but sup- 
 port for legitimate enterprises abroad should be assured. 
 
 Great wars have almost invariably served to stimulate in- 
 dustry. It is ridiculous, therefore, for us to believe that our 
 competitors will be handicapped permanently by the conflict 
 in which they are now engaged. On the contrary, they who 
 are already trained to foreign trade, who have long established 
 connections abroad and a just appreciation of the relations of 
 oversea commerce and domestic prosperity, will be stimulated 
 to new efforts, by the pressing need of recovering from the 
 effects of the present struggle. They will be disciplined by the 
 trials they have undergone; hardened by deprivation; rendered 
 keener by the present crisis. Within but a short space of 
 time their competition will be more effective because more 
 aggressive. They will be satisfied with a smaller margin of 
 profit and will be willing to work harder than before. 
 
 We in this country have been prodigal ; thoughtless, careless, 
 because of the very magnitude of our national resources. 
 We have developed a remarkable initiative and intelligence, 
 because the scope for our enterprise has been so vast. We are 
 as a nation, however, just beginning to learn the necessity of 
 thinking, not individually, but collectively, of cooperating for 
 the common, instead of striving each for our own, good. 
 
 A great foreign trade opportunity is to-day presented to us. 
 We are not, however, invited to enter an El Dorado. There is 
 no " New West " opening to our endeavors. 
 
 Our competitors are less active than they have been in the 
 past. They will, for some time to come, be handicapped by 
 the results of the war, but their recovery from its effects will 
 be more rapid than some of us are now led to believe. 
 
 Our real opportunity lies in our suddenly awakened con- 
 sciousness; that after all we cannot hold aloof but, whether we 
 
15 
 
 will or no, must play our part in a world game. The war 
 has granted us a breathing spell in which to look strange 
 new facts in the face; to take stock of our abilities, to over- 
 haul the existing and to construct new machinery for carry- 
 ing on our foreign trade. The European struggle has not 
 brought us a lottery prize; it has given us a job in which it 
 is up to us to make good. This is our foreign trade oppor- 
 tunity. It is an opportunity which carries heavy responsi- 
 bilities, — responsibilities which you, gentlemen of the Illinois 
 Manufacturers Association have already shown your desire 
 and your ability to assume. 
 
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