UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA TRENDS ^ AND OUTLOOK CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL it Station CIRCULAR 501 CALIFORNIA'S PLACE IN THE CHERRY INDUSTRY Production of sweet cherries in California reached an all-time high of 33,500 tons annually in 1945-49 and then decreased by one-quarter to 25,000 tons in 1955-60. The state's share has remained at about 30 to 35 per cent of the nation's crop during the past several decades. Acreage expanded rapidly until the mid-1930's. California now has 10,400 bearing acres (down 30 per cent from the 1937 peak) and 3,800 non- bearing acres. Over three-quarters of this acreage is located in two counties: San Joaquin and Santa Clara. Yield per acre remained at about 1.6 tons in California until the early 1940's and then rose sharply to 2.9 tons in 1945-60. Average yield has varied widely from year to year. Fresh Sales take 45 per cent of the California crop. Two-thirds of this total is shipped to out-of-state markets. California accounts for 35 per cent of the sweet cherries sold fresh in the United States and markets its supply, because of earlier maturity, before cherry shipments from other areas become heavy. Processing of sweet cherries was limited to canning until 1924, when commer- cial brining to produce maraschino cherries was introduced. Now many more sweet cherries are brined than canned in California, and this is also the situation in other states. California accounts for 25 per cent of all sweet cherries brined and 35 per cent of those canned in the United States. Foreign Trade in sweet cherries is small. Imports of brined cherries amount to about 6 per cent of the United States pack. Exports take 3 per cent of the United States canned pack and only 1 per cent of the fresh shipments. Domestic Use reached a peak in 1945-49. Per capita consumption of California fresh and processed cherries was one-third lower in 1955-60. Farm Prices rose sharply since the early 1930's, mainly because of improved general economic conditions. They vary greatly from year to year because of large annual fluctuations in yield. In California the farm price is 20 per cent lower for cannery cherries and 35 per cent lower for brining cherries than for cherries sold fresh. The Outlook is for increased production in California mainly because acreage is expanding. The present upward trend in farm prices may be stopped for the next few years unless consumer purchasing power increases more rapidly than it has recently. JERRY FOYTIK CALIFORNIA CHERRY INDUSTRY TRENDS AND OUTLOOK V^alifornia is the leading producer of CONTENTS sweet cherries in the United States — but not by a large margin. The state produces about 30 per cent of the nation's crop, I he Industry Oregon 25 per cent, Washington 19 per California's position 4 cent? and Qther stateg 26 cent Growing conditions 6 -,, . . n it i Producing areas 6 . Cherries were grown in California dur- Varieties planted 6 m g the early part of the nineteenth cen- Harvesting 7 tury: by the Russians at Fort Ross and a the Spanish padres at some of their mis- sions. Commercial production remained Location 8 sma U? however, until the 1850's when Varietal composition 9 varieties were introduced from eastern Age distribution 10 nurseries. By 1859 plantings had in- Future acreage 12 cre ased to an estimated 105,000 trees— Yield tne equivalent of some 3,000 acres, or Past changes .14 aDOut 20 per cent of the 1959 acreage. Comparative yields 15 Further expansion of the industry was Future yields 15 delayed until shipping methods to east- Production and Utilization ern , m f k f ts , were developed. The first „-■,., ,, carload of cherries was shipped East by Production trends 16 r r . , 10 or i n ii Future production 16 fast frei g ht in 1885 > and reportedly sold Crop utilization 17 for $1 per pound. Exports and imports 19 Throughout the past 50 years about Domestic use 20 half of the California crop sold fresh and Processing Uses na if was processed. However, the dis- Cannintr 23 tribution of fresh sales changed markedly Brining 23 during this period: shipments to out-of- „ , -, . state markets increased from one-half to t res h Consumption . .,. ■, r r i i *• r> • • r two-thirds ot Iresn marketings. Brming, Sales pattern 25 w hich began commercially in 1924, ex- Uut-ol-state shipments 25 i i • n . i i Auction marketings 27 P ande d rapidly to about one-third the Auction prices 30 crop since 1935. Canning declined cor- ~ „ respondingly — from 50 to 20 per cent of Grower Returns u i all sales. General level 31 California's fresh cherries, because Returns by outlets 32 , ' Future returns 33 tne y matur e early, are marketed before supplies of other fruits and of cherries [3] SOUR CHERRIES AND SWEET CHERRIES Two groups of cherries, sour and sweet, are produced commercially in the United States. They are grown in different sections of the country and are used in different ways. Sour cherries, also called pie or tart cherries (Prunus cerasus) are grown mainly in five states of the Great Lakes region (Wisconsin, Michi- gan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York). Six western states (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Colorado) account for 8 per cent of the crop. Almost the entire crop is canned or frozen ; only 6 per cent is sold fresh and 1 per cent is brined. Sweet cherries (Prunus avium) are grown chiefly in the three Pacific Coast states. The other four western states (Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Colorado) account for 8 per cent of the crop, and the Great Lakes region for 18 per cent. About 40 per cent of the crop is sold fresh, 40 per cent is brined, and 20 per cent is canned. Almost exactly 60 per cent of the average crop (219,000 tons) for 1950-59 was sour cherries and 40 per cent sweet cherries. Sweet cherries represent the vast bulk of all cherries brined (97 per cent) and of those sold fresh (83 per cent). They are much less impor- tant in other outlets — canned, 20 per cent, and frozen, 1 per cent. from other states become heavy. Cherries THE INDUSTRY constitute one-quarter of the fresh de- ciduous tree fruits shipped from Cali- fornia during May 1-June 15. California The United States > with approximately ships 80 to 85 per cent of its cherries by one quarter of the world production, is mid-June while other states ship only *e leading producer of cherries. In this 10 per cent of their crop during that time, country cherries are grown extensively The situation is different, however, for in 12 states > and to some extent in several processed cherries. Although California other sta tes where the fruits are used on packs its supply earlier, canned and the farms or sold on local markets, brined cherries processed in this state ,. £ . , . . are sold in direct competition with those California s Position packed in other states. No sour cherries are produced com- This circular examines the factors re- mercially in California. The state pro- sponsible for past changes and estimates duces 30 per cent of the nation's sweet future prospects. It may help cherry cherry crop. farmers, processors, and marketers in Table 1 shows how California utilizes their planning by projecting for the fu- its crop in comparison to other states, ture various factors that will affect the In each of the three Pacific Coast states profitability of cherry production in Cali- about 20 to 25 per cent of the production fornia. is canned. The relative importance of THE AUTHOR: Jerry Foytik is Associate Professor of Agricultural Eco- nomics and Associate Agricultural Economist in the Agricultural Experi- ment Station and on the Giannini Foundation. AUGUST, 1961 Table 1. U. S. Sweet Cherry Production and Utilization, 1950-59 Average Use California Oregon Washington Other U.S. total Calif, as % of U.S. Shipped fresh Brined Canned* Tons, fresh use 35.4 25.6 34.4 11,920 8,680 5,640 3,280 11,760 5,110 10,080 2,000 3,350 8,380 11,520 2,300 33,660 33,960 16,400 Total sales Farm use Not utilized Total crop Per cent of sales Shipped fresh Brined Canned 26,240 300 20,150 1,480 15,430 760 420 22,200 1,320 140 84,020 3,860 560 31.2 7.8 26,540 21,630 16,610 23,660 88,440 30.0 45.4 33.1 21.5 16.3 58.4 25.3 65.3 13.0 21.7 37.7 51.9 10.4 40.1 40.4 19.5 * Includes small quantities frozen. Note : See box on last page for source of data appearing in all tables and charts shown in this circular. brining and fresh sales, however, varies Washington's sales are shipped fresh and widely by state. In Oregon fresh ship- only 13 per cent is brined. California has ments represent 16 per cent of sales and an intermediate position — 45 per cent is brining 58 per cent. Almost two-thirds of shipped fresh and 33 per cent is brined. CHERRY PRODUCTION DISTRICTS Counties for each production district are listed in descending order of present acreage : Stockton District includes San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties and con- stitutes 52 per cent of the state's total acreage. Santa Clara District includes five counties to the southeast of San Fran- cisco: Santa Clara, Alameda, Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito. About 33 per cent of the state's cherry acreage is located in these counties. North Bay District includes Sonoma and Napa counties and represents 3 per cent of the acreage. Other Areas, representing 12 per cent of the acreage, include all of the 49 remaining counties of California. Twenty-three of these have no com- mercial acreage, seventeen have limited plantings of less than 30 acres each and nine have acreage ranging from 35 to 430. [5] Growing Conditions Cherries are very sensitive to soil and climatic conditions. Generally, best re- sults are obtained on light, well-drained, loamy soils. Most areas of the Central Valley are not well adapted to the cherry because temperatures are high and hu- midities low. An exception is San Joa- quin County which is the most important cherry-producing area of the state. The rain falling during the growing season in most areas does not provide enough moisture for vigorous tree growth. Most cherry orchards are irri- gated. The number of applications varies from a single irrigation to as many as six. The number of irrigations necessary and the amount of water to be applied is in- fluenced by rainfall, climate, and soil of the area. Sweet cherry varieties will not produce crops when self-pollinated. In addition, some are cross-unfruitful — that is, inter- barren with each other. Hence, securing proper pollination is essential. Care must be exercised to select profitable varieties which are interfruitful and bloom at the same time. Other cultural practices such as fertilization, weed control, disease and insect control, require attention as they do for all fruits. Producing Areas Climate, cultural requirements, and economic factors have limited commer- cial production in California largely to a few specialized areas where cherries can be grown most profitably. Conditions in other fruit-growing areas of the state are less favorable. These relative advan- tages are reflected in plantings made in former years and more recently. How- ever, cherries are now going into some areas which appear to be less favorable, including older areas where trees were removed. The trees being planted are virus free (not available in earlier years) and of newer varieties. It is too early to know whether these newly-planted areas will remain in production or even will expand. As production became more commer- cialized, growing areas became more sharply defined. For example, 35 coun- ties had plantings of at least 20 acres each in 1919 compared to 22 counties in 1960. During this 40-year period acreage tripled (from 3,560 to 11,220 acres) in the two leading counties and declined sharply (6,840 to 3,010 acres) in the other counties. Over three-fourths of the present acre- age is located in two counties: San Joa- quin and Santa Clara. By adding nearby counties with smaller acreage to these production centers we arrive at the prin- cipal cherry-producing districts listed in the box. The two main cherry areas rep- resent five-sixths of the present acreage — 52 per cent in the Stockton District and 33 per cent in the Santa Clara District. North Bay is established as a separate district because Sonoma County is the third county in Royal Ann acreage and was the leading county until the early 1940's. Varieties Planted Although numerous varieties have been and can be grown in California, only a few are of commercial importance now. About 90 per cent of the present acreage is in three varieties: 53 per cent is planted to Bing, 28 per cent to Royal Ann, 9 per cent to Black Tartarian. A total of 7 per cent of the acreage is planted to Lambert, Chapman, Republi- can, and Burbank. Other varieties rep- resent only 3 per cent. The seven varieties named differ, sometimes markedly, in appearance, ma- turity dates, eating quality, suitability for processing, tree growth, and other re- spects — see box. Such differences influ- ence the marketability and profitability of different varieties and should be in- cluded among the factors considered when you choose varieties you wish to [6] son for his orchard is lengthened because Harvesting trees are picked two and even three times When harvesting begins in a particu- and several varieties are grown, lar orchard depends on the intended Care is taken in picking the fruit. Cher- outlet for the crop. Different stages of ries for fresh shipment must have the maturity are desired for fresh shipment stems attached, otherwise the skin is and processing. Usually the grower broken and the fruit spoils quickly, knows in advance the outlet for his fruit Processing cherries are normally also and picks accordingly. The picking sea- picked with stems attached. CHERRY VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA The seven varieties are listed in order of approximate ripening dates. Chapman, the earliest, is a sweet, tender-fleshed, black cherry. The fruit is of only medium size and fair quality, which helps explain the large acreage decrease for this variety. Burbank is a sweet, tender-fleshed, dark red, early cherry of medium size. It has lost consumer favor because of flesh softness, size and quality. Burbank yields less and cracks more during rainy periods than Chapman. The trees are susceptible to virus attacks. Black Tartarian is a tart-flavored, tender-fleshed, black cherry of fairly large size. It accounts for most of the cherries marketed fresh before Bing moves in volume. In some years the fruit produced is quite soft and of small size. Bing, the most important variety grown in California, is a sweet, firm, black cherry of large size and excellent quality. It is shipped fresh in large volume and is used also for canning and brining. In some years the trees tend to produce double fruits. Bing experienced a sharp acreage increase during the 1950's. Royal Ann is a large, firm, juicy cherry of good quality. It is light- colored (yellow with a red blush) whereas the other six varieties are dark red to black. Almost the entire crop is canned or brined. The trees are very productive but produce many doubles and are susceptible to virus. Also the fruit cracks badly during seasons of even light rains. Royal Ann is known as Napoleon in all parts of the world except the Pacific Coast. Republican is a sweet, very firm, roundish, black cherry, generally of small size. It ships well but its principal use at present is brining. The trees are very productive. Lambert, the latest-ripening of these varieties, is a sweet, firm, dark red to black cherry of very large size. It ships well and is considered by many people to be the best flavored cherry grown commercially in California. Generally this variety escapes damage from cracking because the fruit matures after the rainy season. If rains come late, however, the fruit cracks badly, as do other cherries. [7] Cherries to be shipped fresh to eastern markets are harvested at or near the mini- mum maturity requirements specified by the California Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Standardization Act — see the Agricul- tural Code. Somewhat more mature cher- ries are shipped to nearby markets and to processing plants since less ripening will occur during transport. Two benefits result from delaying har- vest as long as it is possible economically after minimum maturity requirements are met. Quality develops better in cher- ries picked at the later stage of maturity; and yields are raised since fruit size and total tonnage increase rapidly from mini- mum maturity to tree-ripened fruit. The reason why less-mature cherries are shipped east lies in the fact that the wholesale trade in the East prefers the bright red fruit, even though quality is poorer, and generally pays a higher price for it. In consequence, growers harvest their cherries at or near minimum ma- turity. They should determine for them- selves whether their returns might be in- creased, because of greater yields, by shipping more mature fruit, even though it sells at a lower price. ACREAGE Location, varietal composition, and age distribution of cherry acreage have changed considerably in the past. Cur- rent trends indicate future changes. Past Trends In 1919 California had 3,000 acres of nonbearing cherry trees. Nonbearing acreage reached a peak of 5,800 in 1926 and then declined to 920 in 1945-46. Heavy plantings during recent years in- creased the total to 3,800 in 1960. Bearing acreage doubled from 7,400 in 1919 to a peak of 14,900 in 1937, a decade after the peak in nonbearing acre- age. It then decreased by over one-third to a level of 9,400 maintained during 1950-57. In 1960 bearing acreage was 10,400. Total acreage reached a peak of 18,000 in 1932 — 75 per cent above 1919 — and then decreased, more or less steadily, to an average of 11,800 in 1948-54. The subsequent increase in nonbearing acre- age raised total acreage to 14,200 in 1960, which is 20 per cent below the 1932 peak. Location Although bearing acreage was the same in 1960 as in 1926, its location had changed substantially. Bearing acreage more than tripled (from 1,600 to 5,210 acres) in the Stockton District and in- creased 30 per cent in the Santa Clara District. It declined 70 per cent for the remainder of the state. As a result, the relative importance of the districts changed drastically. The proportion of the state's bearing acreage in the Stockton District increased sharply since 1921 — from 13 to 50 per cent. Santa Clara dipped from 33 per cent in 1921 to 24 per cent in 1931-36 and then increased to 35 per cent in 1959. For the balance of the state bearing acreage de- creased from 54 per cent of the total in 1921 to 15 per cent in 1960. Figure 1 shows this shift for the period 1921-59. The top panel indicates the dis- trict composition of the state's bearing acreage. The bottom panel gives the per- centage located within each district. Furthermore, commercial acreage within each district has become more concentrated in its principal county. Since the 1920's the relative importance of San Joaquin County increased from 94 to 99 per cent of the Stockton Dis- trict's acreage. Santa Clara County in- creased from 65 to 87 per cent of the five-county acreage in Santa Clara Dis- trict. Sonoma County increased, in rela- tive importance, from 71 to 90 per cent of the acreage in North Bay District. About 57 per cent of the present acre- age in "Other Areas" is in four counties adjacent to the Central Valley: Contra Costa, Solano, Sacramento, and Sutter. [8] 15 10 -Santa Clara Dist. 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1959 40 1 1 II __ _^^ Other Counties 1 1 1 1 Stockton Dist. ^^ - ^^^^^^O^ ^S^J3< rj Q — ^ 1 1 2 Exports - Canned ^ - ^^^^^ Fresh mmmmm m * *^ n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 Fig. 5. Cherries: U. S. Imports and Exports, 1925-1958. 1955-58 • Processing sales may increase more for black cherries than for Royal Ann. • Fresh sales may increase more at local than at out-of-state markets. This indication of possible changes in the utilization pattern is merely tenta- tive, based upon the situation as it now exists. Exports and Imports United States exports and imports of cherries, for the period since 1925, are [19 shown in figure 5. The data refer to all cherries since government reports make no separation between sweet and sour types. This information needs to be ex- amined to indicate the importance of foreign trade to the California cherry industry. In recent years (1950-59) about 60 per cent of the total cherry export (on a fresh-fruit weight basis) consisted of fresh cherries and 40 per cent of canned cherries. Fresh shipments abroad averaged 570 tons in 1935-49 and 1,140 tons in 1950-59. Practically the entire quantity (95 per cent) went to Canada. Canned- cherry exports were about 1,500 tons (net declared weight) in 1955-59, the same as in 1935-39, and compared to 450 tons in 1940-54. Since World War II about half this quantity was shipped to Belgium. The bulk of the rest went to Canada, The Netherlands, and West Ger- many. These data indicate that only a small part of the nation's cherry crop is ex- ported — less than 1 per cent since 1950. Before World War II a somewhat higher proportion was exported: 1.5 per cent in 1925-29 and 1.3 per cent in 1935-39. Imports of brined cherries rose to a peak of 67,600 barrels as an average in 1927-29 — equal to about 3.6 times the United States pack. They dropped sharply and remained low during the depression and war period — an average of 3,600 barrels in 1932-45. Since 1950 the average has been about 19,400 bar- rels, or 7 per cent of the domestic pack. Imports of other processed cherries (dried or preserved) averaged 6,000 tons in 1924-26 (the peak period), only 14 tons in 1932-49, and 2,600 tons in 1955-58. The small volume of cherries exported and imported is of significance to the California's cherry industry. Exports never were very large. Even if shipments abroad increased several fold, exports would not take an appreciable portion of California's crop. Imports were a major source of our supply of processed cher- ries other than canned in the 1920's. Since then domestic processing has ex- panded tremendously so that imports represent only a small part of our con- sumption. Of course, a further increase in imports during the next few years would hurt cherry growers but it would not be a calamity. For example, if im- ports of brined cherries doubled by the mid-1960's, the increase (over the 1950-59 average) would be equal to only about 2 to 2.5 per cent of the sweet- cherry crop expected for that time. Domestic Use United States consumption of sweet cherries increased until the late 1940's and then declined: by 23 per cent for fresh use and only 2 per cent for proc- essed cherries. Because of continued population growth per-capita consump- tion followed a somewhat different Table 7. Domestic Consumption* of Sweet Cherries, U. S., 1935-59 Use 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 Total— 1,000 tons (fresh basis) Fresh Processed 28.0 34.3 35.6 35.8 39.6 60.6 35.8 57.5 30.4 59.6 All 62.3 71.4 100.2 93.3 90.0 Per capita — pounds (.fresh basis) Fresh Processed .43 .55 .53 .53 .55 .84 1.39 .46 .73 .36 .70 All .98 1.06 1.19 1.06 * Shipments adjusted roughly for foreign trade by subtracting exports (assumed at half of exports for all cherries) and by adding total imports of brined cherries. [20] 1.5 - to LLI to < 1.0 u .5 _ - ^ ^^r ^ Actual Cases ^^ Equivalent No. 2Vis. - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1933-36 1937-40 1943-46 1947-50 1951-54 1955-59 50 _ 25 _ California Other States 1933-36 1937-40 1943-46 1947-50 1951-54 1955-59 75 _ 50 - 25 - y^ Other / sizes 1933-36 1937-40 1943-46 1947-50 1951-54 1955-59 Fig. 6. Canned Sweet Cherries: Composition of U. S. Pack, 1933-1959. course. The increase to 1945-49 was less and the subsequent decrease was greater. In fact, per-capita consumption in 1955-59 was 24 per cent below the 1945-49 average and only slightly above the 1935-39 average — 1.6 pounds in 1955-59, compared to 0.98 pounds 20 years earlier. This information, presented in more detail in table 7, applies to all sweet cher- ries produced in the United States, of which California cherry growers produce and market almost one-third. The present downward trend in per-capita consump- tion will confront them with a difficult problem if, as is expected, production is increased in the next few years — possibly at a rate greater than population growth. [21] PROCESSING USES The proportion of the California crop going to processors has remained rela- tively constant, at about 50 per cent, during the past 50 years. Relative quan- tities used in different processing outlets changed markedly in the manner dis- cussed above on page 17. Figures 6 and 7 show the volume of canned and brined cherries packed in California and in other states since the early 1930's. Before about 1940, California cherry processing was limited chiefly to the Royal Ann variety. After World War II increasing quantities of black cherries, mostly Bing, have been processed, espe- cially as brined cherries. Generally, less than 30,000 cases of black cherries have been canned annu- ally in California, except in three years (1946, 1949, and 1952), when a much larger quantity was packed — averaging an annual pack of 125,000 cases (actual) compared to 650,000 cases of Royal Ann. (/> 120 j^ Oreg. - Wash. - O U"> CN O 80 * California ^ ' / X ^^^^ t CO ^_ t~~ f ^^^^^M UJ rv s~~~ / / ZY. /s**+^ / / CD „ V^ ^******+*S 'Other States o o o 40 1 1 1 1 1 1 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 60 U en 20 - - y Oreg. - Wash.**"-"* ^^ ^^^- California — ^ ^^ - S Other States 1 1 1 1 1 1 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 Fig. 7. Brined Cherries: Composition of U. S. Production, 1930-1959. [22] Canning California's pack of canned sweet cher- ries increased to 265,000 cases (basis of 24 No. 2l/ 2 cans) in 1930-39. It reached a peak of 460,000 cases in 1945-49 (when the average crop was large) and then levelled at an average pack of about 350,000 cases since 1950. The pack varies greatly from year to year. These annual variations averaged 195,000 cases since 1940, or almost 60 per cent of the average pack. The annual change exceeded 250,000 cases in eight of the past 20 years, was 120,000 to 200,- 000 cases in five, and fell below 100,000 cases in seven. Sweet cherries are also canned in other states, especially Oregon and Washing- ton. These two states account for most of the black cherries canned in the United States. The nation's pack of sweet cherries is just about 1.0 million cases. This level, maintained since 1947, is considerably below the peak of 1.9 million cases packed in 1946. Year-to-year changes in the total pack are large — 40 per cent of the average pack. California's pack has averaged 35 per cent of the United States total during the past 30 years. This proportion, how- ever, varied greatly from year to year depending upon the relative crop of sweet cherries produced in the different states. It exceeded 45 per cent in about one out of five seasons and fell below 20 per cent with the same frequency. The shift toward greater use of smaller can sizes following World War II is is shown in the bottom panel of figure 6. Between 1933-40 and 1955-59 the pack in No. 303, 300 and 8 oz. cans rose sharply from 11 to 77 per cent of the total. No. 2 and 1 Tall cans dropped from 20 per cent to practically nothing, while No. 10 and 2% cans decreased from 69 to 23 per cent. Brining Since the introduction of commercial brining in 1924, the California pack rose to a peak of 86,000 barrels in 1945-49 and then declined somewhat to an aver- age of 70,000 since 1950. Until about 1940 practically the entire pack was proc- essed from Royal Ann cherries. Black cherries, such as Bing, have been used in increasing volume during the past 20 years. Since 1952 they represent over 40 per cent of the cherries brined in Cali- fornia. The pack of brined cherries expanded less rapidly in California than in other states — see figure 7. Hence, California's share has declined more or less steadily from 43 per cent of the U. S. total in 1930-34 to 24 per cent in 1955-59. Table 8. Comparison of Quantities of Brined Cherries Packed and Used for Canning Brined cherries 1930-39 1940-49 1950-54 1955-59 1,000 barrels Packed in U.S 112.1 41.9 17.8 192.2 63.9 44,4 265.1 67.4 55.3 298.0 Packed in California Used for canning in California* 71.2 72.4 * The data shown above as quantities used for canning (fruit cocktail and fruit salad) are estimates since this information is not published. These estimates assume that 1.5 and 1.65 pounds of brined cherries are used per case (24 No. 2 l 2 ) for fruit cocktail and fruit salad, respectively. They were developed from two factors. The brined cherries used by canners must be stemmed, pitted and halved. A yield of about 55 to 60 per cent appears reasonable. Federal grades specify that cherries shall constitute 2 to 6 per cent "by weight of the drained fruit" of total ingredients for fruit cocktail and 3 to 7 per cent for fruit salad. Generally canners tend to go toward the lower ends of these ranges since cherries are the most expensive ingredients in the mixed fruit. [23] i r Out-of-state S _ ^ m «*»» Intrastate 1910-14 1920-24 1930-34 1950-54 1910-14 1915-19 1920-24 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 Fig. 8. California Cherries: Out-of-State and Intrastate Fresh Shipments, 1910-1959. Brined cherries are used in several dif- ferent ways. Some are used in candy, ice cream, and bakery products. Some are processed further and sold as maraschino cherries. California canners require large quantities in their packs of canned fruit cocktail and fruit salad. The importance of this outlet for brined cherries is indi- cated in table 8. Canners' use of brined cherries in- creased, of course, as their packs of canned fruit cocktail and fruit salad ex- panded. Their use of brined cherries was equal to 42 per cent of the California pack in 1930-39, 76 per cent in 1940-54, and 102 per cent in 1955-59. Of course, all of the brined cherries used by canners were not packed in California. Some were shipped in from Oregon and Washing- ton. This upward trend in the use of brined cherries by canners is of considerable importance to the California cherry in- dustry. The pack of fruit cocktail and fruit salad has been increasing and is expected to continue to increase. This means a further expansion in the major outlet for California brined cherries — the channel which takes one-third of the state's production. FRESH CONSUMPTION Fresh shipments increased rapidly to 13,800 tons per year in 1945-49 and remained at about this level during 1950-57. Sales were much lower (an average of only 5,800 tons) in 1958 and 1959 when very small crops were pro- duced — an average of only 12,500 tons compared to 30,000 tons in 1950-57. [24] 250 ira - Santa Clc 2U0 - San Joaq uin ISO 100 50 ITTTT mi May 1-10 May 11-20 May 21-31 June 1-10 June 11-20 June 21-30 Fig. 9. California Cherries: Out-of-State Rail Passings, by County, Ten-day Periods, 1955-1959 Average. Sales Pattern Figure 8 shows the volume of fresh marketings during the past 50 years. Local fresh sales rose fairly steadily from 1,800 tons in 1910-14 to an aver- age of 5,700 tons maintained during 1935-49 and then declined to below 4,400 tons in 1950-57. Out-of-state ship- ments changed somewhat differently. They increased more rapidly until about 1930, remained at an average of 6,400 tons during 1930-44, and then rose to a higher level of 8,800 tons in 1945-57. The proportion of fresh marketings sold within California declined from about one-half of the total in 1910-19 to one-third in 1950-59. This shift oc- curred while population grew much more rapidly in California than elsewhere in the nation and while production of sweet cherries in other states increased. The net effect was a sharp decline in per- capita consumption of fresh sweet cher- ries in California and an even sharper increase in the rest of the country. Aver- age consumption is still higher, by about 50 per cent, in California. It would be reasonable to expect local sales to expand as much as out-of-state shipments, or even more rapidly, during the next few years. The balance of this section deals with information on out-of-state marketings. Comparable data on local sales are not available. Out-of-State Shipments Half of the interstate shipments of fresh cherries come from San Joaquin County and half from Santa Clara County. (This refers to originating ship- ping points not to location of production ; some early shipments from San Joaquin County include cherries grown outside that county). In occasional years ship- [25] merits are made from shipping points in other counties. For example, annual rail shipments since 1945 averaged 715 cars: 362 and 352 came from San Joaquin and Santa Clara county shipping points, re- spectively, and 1 car from points in other counties. Shipments from the two principal counties differ in seasonal movement. About 20 to 25 per cent of the cherries from San Joaquin County are shipped by May 20, two-thirds during the next three weeks, and 10 per cent after June 10. Shipments from Santa Clara County follow a similar pattern but are made about 10 days later: 20 to 25 per cent in May, two-thirds during June 1-20, and 10 per cent after June 20. Usually, San Joaquin County accounts for 90 per cent of California's shipments made in May 1-20, 65 per cent in May 21-31, 50 per cent in June 1-10, and 15 per cent in June 11-30. Thus shipments from both counties are substantial only during late 1,000, May and early June. This comparison in shipping seasons is shown in figure 9 for 1955-59. California ships 35 per cent of its cher- ries in May, another 50 per cent during June 1-15 and 15 per cent after June 15. No cherries are shipped from other states in May and only 10 per cent of the sea- sonal movement is marketed by June 15. Hence during May 1-June 15 almost 600 cars come from California and about 125 cars from other states — chiefly Washing- ton, Oregon, and Utah. After mid-June shipments from California are small in relation to those from other states — about 100 cars compared to almost 1,100. Thus, California, which ships only 35 per cent of the cherries sold fresh in the United States, markets almost all of its supply before shipments from other areas be- come large. The seasonal pattern of cherry ship- ments for 1955-59 is shown in figure 10. These data are on a monthly basis be- 800 600 400 200 Others Oregon - Washington California i^ms May June July Aug. Fig. 10. Sweet Cherries: Monthly Carlot Shipments, by State, 1955-1959 Average. [26] Table 9. Rail Carlot Shipments of Certain California Fruits, 1950-59 Commodity 1950-54 average 1955-59 average May June July Season* May June July Season* Cherries 302 471 773 191 416 607 Apricots 20 434 95 549 22 223 46 291 Plums 80 1,517 1,328 3,742 124 1,386 1,406 3,692 Other deciduous. . . . 12 357 3,850 9,940 39 611 3,190 8,610 Total deciduous tree fruits 414 2,779 5,273 15,004 376 2,636 4,642 13,200 Strawberries 666 286 207 1,435 996 712 483 2,675 Melons 1,010 4,118 4,978 20,840 426 2,707 5,924 18,920 Grapes 20 630 1,716 27,657 60 660 1,895 24,960 Total above 2,110 7,813 12,174 64,936 1,858 6,715 12,944 59,755 * Includes months after July. cause shipments from most states are not reported for shorter periods. California cherries are also marketed before most other deciduous fruits are shipped. This means that cherries arrive at consumer markets while the supply of competing fruits is far below the quan- tity available in the next two months. Monthly rail shipments of cherries and other California fruits, 1950-59 aver- ages, are summarized in table 9. The relative earliness of the cherry season is apparent. Although cherries constitute only 5 per cent of the decidu- ous tree fruits shipped from California, they account for 60 per cent of the vol- ume moved in May, one-third of the shipments during the first ten days of June, and 10 per cent of the total in June 11-30. Auction Marketings Data on auction sales and prices are not published for cherries in as much de- tail as for several other fresh fruits. The available information, however, does pro- vide a description of auction marketings and an indication of changes which have taken place. Table 10 summarizes sales at the New York auction market for 1935-37 and for 1955-59. The data for the later period include two years (1958 and 1959) when shipments were small because production was low. Nevertheless, these auction sales represent a large portion of out-of-state shipments and give a fairly satisfactory indication of the varietal composition of sales. Sales at one market, the New York Auction, represented 55 per cent of the fresh cherries shipped from California in 1935-37 and 31 per cent in 1955-59. The importance of auction marketings, rela- tive to private sales, decreased during the past quarter century, as it did for other California fruits. For example, since 1935-39 sales at all auction markets de- creased from 80 to 66 per cent of apricot shipments and from 68 to 47 per cent of plum shipments. The varietal composition of auction marketings changed markedly since 1935-37. Relative sales increased for two varieties: Bing from 41 to 64 per cent and Lambert from a small volume to 6 per cent of the total. Black Tartarian de- clined from 37 to 25 per cent. Other va- rieties decreased even more — from 22 to 4.5 per cent of auction sales. [27 Table 10. New York Auction Sales of California Cherries, 1935-37 and 1955-59 Variety 1935-37 average 1,000 pounds Per cent 1955-59 average 1,000 pounds Per cent Bing Black Tartarian Republican Chapman Royal Ann Lambert Other varieties All Other sales Interstate shipments * Lambert sales included with other varieties years than sales for any listed variety. t Less than 0.05 per cent. 2,640 2,355 640 245 85 * 445 41.1 36.8 10.0 3.8 1.3 7.0 6,410 5,190 11,600 100.0 2,900 1,145 45 90 2 285 68 4,535 9,865 14,400 64.0 25.3 1.0 2.0 t 6.2 1.5 100.0 in 1935 - 37 since they were considerably less in these Most California cherries are marketed during a period of five weeks. Usually sales at eastern markets are small until mid-May, reach a peak on about June 10 and decline rapidly within another week. One-half the total is sold during the first two weeks of June and 85 per cent be- tween May 25 and June 25. Figure 11 shows the distribution of weekly sales for 1955-59. It indicates WEEK OF SEASON Fig. 11. California Cherries: Weekly New York Auction Sales, by Variety, 1955-1959 Average. [28] the extent to which the major varieties are sold at different periods. These va- rieties reach maximum sales at terminal markets in a series of peaks, in accord- ance with progressively later maturity dates. Chapman and other early varieties are sold within two weeks or so. Practically all of these cherries are sold by May 20 before other varieties become available in volume. Black Tartarian, the second major variety to come onto the market, is available in large volume by May 20, reaches its peak movement a week later (during the third week of the season), and is practically off the market by June 10. Sales of Bing cherries begin about the fourth week of the season, the end of May, while Black Tartarian is still in heavy supply. Bing dominates the cherry market during June 5-25, when 80 to 85 1925-29 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 ^* *\ s' \ ** \ Chapman \ \ \ \ A \ 120 \ \ - Bing ^S*. \ \ V^ ^^^^^Lambert inn Black \ ^ Tartarian **. V m ~~...y*- • • • Nr ••• # H sn _ Republican i * * * * • • • • • 1 ' i i I i i 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 Fig. 12. California Cherries: New York Auction Prices, 1925-1959. [29] per cent of the season's movement of this variety is sold. During these three weeks Bing represents over 80 per cent of Cali- fornia's cherry sales. After about June 20 (week 6), when Bing sales decline rapidly from their peak, other California cherries, especially Lambert, are mar- keted, and sweet cherries from Oregon and Washington begin to arrive in large volume. Auction Prices Terminal market prices for each va- riety decline sharply for about three weeks, as sales increase in volume, and then level off. There is a definite tend- ency for each succeeding major variety to sell at a higher price than the variety going off the market. Thus, as soon as Black Tartarian begins to move in vol- ume during the second or third week of the season, this variety brings a substan- tially higher price than Chapman then being marketed. Again, two weeks later Bing brings a higher price than Black Tartarian or other varieties sold at that time. This pattern indicates the usual changes in weekly price for California cherries sold at eastern markets. Prices begin at a high level and fall rapidly for about a month as supplies increase. Then they remain fairly stable for another month or so because varieties of higher quality, such as Bing, constitute a larger proportion of the supply. Finally as the season for California cherries draws to a close, prices may decline again because of increased shipments of cherries from other states and of heavy supplies of other fruits competing with the cherries on the markets. New York auction prices for the period since 1925 are shown in figure 12 by five- year averages. The average for all va- rieties decreased from 24 cents per pound in 1925-29 to 14 cents in 1935-39 and then increased (by about 1.4 cents per year) to 42 cents in 1955-59 (see top panel of figure 12). In comparing relative prices (lower panel of figure 12) it is well to disregard the 1940-44 period since relationships were distorted by war conditions. Rela- tive prices remained fairly stable for two varieties. Bing sold at a premium of about 10 per cent during most of the period since 1925 and Republican at a discount of 15 per cent. Lambert prices, available only since 1940, rose from 95 to 103 per cent of the average. Relative prices declined for the other two vari- eties — from 140 per cent of the average in 1925-34 to 78 per cent in 1950-59 for Chapman and from 96 to 81 per cent for Black Tartarian. Changes in relative prices alone do not explain shifts in sales since usually they are in the same direction — e.g., both relative prices and sales have increased for Lambert and decreased for Chapman. This situation is explained by consumer preferences for particular varieties. East- ern buyers are unwilling to buy Chapman and Black Tartarian except at prices which become lower and lower relative to prices for other California cherries. They are willing, on the other hand, to buy greater quantities of Bing and Lam- bert at the same or higher relative prices. Relative prices for Republican were maintained only by a sharp reduction in sales. GROWER RETURNS Farm price, as reported by the Cali- fornia Crop and Livestock Reporting Service, refers to the payment received by producers for "naked fruit at the first delivery point." Such prices are available for each year since 1919 for the cherries sold in each major utilization outlet and for "all uses." Other meanings for farm price are sometimes used: for fruit on the tree, for fruit delivered by a grower to the packing house or processing plant, for fruit sold by him to a wholesaler or retailer, etc. [30] General Level Changes in consumer purchasing power and in farm production are the main reasons for fluctuations in farm prices for cherries. Consumer purchas- ing power is particularly important in setting the general movement of prices. Production changes also affect this long- run trend, but are more influential in explaining variations in annual prices. Farm prices have varied widely during the past 40 years. They were at a record low of $60 per ton in 1932, at the depth of the depression. A peak of $461 was reached in 1959, when consumer pur- chasing power was high and a very small crop was produced. Average farm prices dropped steeply from $175 per ton in 1926-29 to $63 in 1932-33. They increased gradually over the next decade to $139 in 1940-42 and then jumped to $236 for the war period, 1943-46. Because production has varied so sharply during the past few years, it is difficult to indicate the level toward which the price movement has been tend- ing. But it appears that the upward trend prevailing during the immediate postwar years is continuing. The average price of $342 received in 1955-59 may be a little above the level expected because production was very small in 1958 and 1959. Year-to-year price changes have been large for cherries, as for most other fruits. For example, since 1940 (when the price averaged $276 per ton) the price changed from one season to the next by more than $120 in four years, by $50 to $90 in seven other years, and by less than $40 in nine. Table 1 1. Yield and Grower Returns for California Cherries Year Yield Grower returns Per ton Per acre 1945 Tons per acre Dollars 3.1 282 880 1946 2.8 304 863 1947 2.5 251 629 1948 2.2 326 733 1949 4.4 182 808 1950 3.3 272 896 1951 2.1 361 754 1952 4.1 221 915 1953 2.8 299 851 1954 2.5 336 855 1955 3.6 3.7 3.2 1.3 1.4 2.87 267 287 285 415 454 302.80 972 1,050 935 531 617 819.30 1956 1957 1958 1959 Average Average change * .91 70.57 120.64 Ratio (per cent) f 31.6 23.3 14.7 * Average of changes from one year to the next. t Average annual change divided by average for 1945-49, expressed as is approximately equal to the statistician's coefficient of variation. i percentage figure. This result [31] CO— I li-LU o> >2 CCUI 1.1U 400 Averages - 200 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 J I I I I L ^*V ^ Out-of-state Fresh — _. - J Intrastate Fr -\ rS W - fanned \l ^*~ -"V - 1 1 \ r 1 1 1 1 1 1 ,- 1920-24 1930-34 1940-4/1 1950-54 1950 Fig. 13. California Cherries: Grower Prices by Type of Utilization, 1920-1959. These price fluctuations are highly correlated inversely with changes in an- nual production. (In statistical terms, the correlation coefficient is r = — 0.81. This result indicates that for 1940-59 about two-thirds, r 2 , of the year-to-year changes in farm prices are explainable by annual fluctuations in production.) Yield, as well as per-ton price, is im- portant in determining the farmers' gross income, from which production and har- vest costs must be paid. Generally, prices are higher when yield is low and lower when yield is high. For example, during 1945-59 (see table 11) there is a pro- nounced inverse relationship between price and yield. (Statistically, the corre- lation coefficient is r = -0.91.) Because of this correlation, equivalent per-acre returns fluctuate less than prices. During 1945-59 per-acre returns varied (about their average level) only 63 per cent as much as farm prices. This does not mean, however, that the price will necessarily increase sufficiently when yield is low, to maintain per-acre returns. Since 1945, the price was high in five years (1948, 1951, 1954, 1958, [ and 1959) — an average of $378 per ton or 43 per cent above the average ($265) for the other ten years. Per-acre returns for these five years averaged one-fifth less ($698 compared to $880) because yield was so much lower — 1.90 tons per bearing acre, compared to 3.38 tons. A reduction in per-acre return, caused by lower yield, must be compared with the "saving" in harvesting costs. For the five years under consideration the grower would have come out equally well if his harvest costs averaged $123 per ton. He would have been better off if these costs were higher, and worse off if they were lower. Returns by Outlets The relationship among prices for cherries entering different outlets, for the period since 1920, is shown in figure 13. Generally, farm prices were higher for fresh cherries than for those processed. The difference became more pronounced during the past 20 years. Relative prices increased for fresh cherries (from 3 per cent above the average for all sales in 1920-39 to 18 per cent in 1950-59) and 32] declined for brining cherries (from 93 to 79 per cent of the average). They in- creased and then decreased for cannery cherries. In other words, since 1950 brining and canning cherries sold at 67 and 78 per cent, respectively, of the farm price for fresh cherries, compared to averages of 90 and 96 per cent during 1925-39. Future Returns Farm prices, as noted, depend largely on the level of production and consumer buying power. An increase in production during the next few years is expected largely because of expanded bearing acreage (see page 12) . The future course of consumer purchasing power, however, cannot be estimated with the same degree of confidence. If production expands in the manner indicated in this circular, the increased supply of cherries will tend to depress prices. There is no reason for expecting a decrease in shipments of competing fruits. A decline in prices will be checked, at least in part, as long as the American economy continues to grow at or near the recent rate. Farm prices may continue their pres- ent upward trend, if production increases less rapidly than anticipated or declines, if consumer purchasing power expands at a rate above that prevailing recently, and if consumers change their buying habits and want more cherries at higher prices. Since these situations are not likely to materialize, cherry prices are not expected to continue their present upward trend. In occasional years, when bumper crops are produced, farm prices will de- cline sharply, as they have in the past. Price relationships among the different outlets should remain about the same since the utilization pattern is not ex- pected to change much. The tables and charts used in this circular are summaries of more detailed information appearing in "Mimeographed Report 224," published De- cember 1959. This report gives sources in detail and may be obtained by writing to the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, Uni- versity of California at Berkeley or at Davis. Data for table 10 and charts 11 and 12 are based, in part, on unpub- lished material made available to the author by the California Federal- State Market News Service. [33] In brief . . . California cherry production during the past 50 years reached an all- time high immediately after the war, has declined since. Fresh sales have roughly followed the same pattern, canning dominated the pro- cessed-cherries market until 1924 when brining was introduced ; today more California cherries are brined than canned. Farm prices have been rising since the mid-thirties. The chart below gives a summary presen- tation of the past trends. 40 30 - 20- ra Brined Canned and Froz Marketed Fresh Farm Pr ice 400 1910-14 1915-19 1920-24 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 Co-operative Extension work in Agricultur co-operating. Distributed in furtherance o( id Home Economics, College of Agriculture, University of California, anil United States Department of Agriculture Aas of Congress of May 8, ami June 30, 1914. George 13. Alcorn, Director, California Agricultural Extension Service. 6£m-8,'61(C520)J.F. [34] You* Consider^* Future in Agricultural Economics Agricultural economics applies SCIENCE to the BUSINESS OF FARMING ... to the marketing of farm products, to the use of agri- cultural and range resources. If agriculture is to continue as an important segment of our na- tional economy, farmers must be adequately trained in the business of farming. The University of California's course of study in agricul- tural economics is a step toward that goal. The curriculum . . . presented on the Davis campus, places major emphasis on Farm Management ... but also provides instruction in Marketing, Co-operative Marketing. Agricultural Finance, Policy, and related subjects. Supplementary work may also be taken in such branches of agriculture as Agronomy, Animal Husbandry, Pomology, Agricultural Engineering, and the like. The faculty ... is comprised of trained, experienced economists, many with national and international reputations in their fields. The staff is active in service and research work in all of the Western States. Job opportunities ... can best be understood by pointing to positions now occupied by graduates. The largest percentage are farmers. Other lines of endeavor include: Farm Managers • Credit work • Farmer Organizations Marketing Organizations • Agricultural Extension work State and Federal Departments of Agriculture work College teaching and research ■ High school teaching For more information: Write to the Department of Agricultural Economics, or; University of California, Davis. See your University of California Farm Advisor for college entrance requirements.