University of California 
 College of Agriculture 
 Agricultural Experiment Station 
 Berkeley, California 
 
 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE AMNUAL AVERAGE F.O.B. PRICES 
 OF PACIFIC COAST CANKED B.-UITLETT PEARS, 1926-27 to 1936-37 
 
 toy 
 
 H. R. Wellman and M. D. Street 
 
 August, 1937 
 
 Contribution from the 
 Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics 
 Mimeographed Report No. 61 
 
 saANCH OF THE ^ 
 MiQtOf AflRlCULTUFE 
 
STATISTICAL MALYSIS OF THE imVI\L AVERIGE F.O.B. PRICES 
 
 OF PACIFIC COAST C/iMED B;JITLETT PE.\RS^ 1926-27 to 1936-37 
 H. R. Wellinan-i'aiid M, D. Street^ 
 
 The purpose of this report is to present the results of an analysis 
 of the major factors which havo influonoed the annual average f.o.b, prices 
 received for canned Bartlett pears by canners on the Pacific Coast from 
 1926-27 through 1936-37. 
 
 It should be clearly recognized that the results presented heroin 
 explain only what has occurred. They do not forecast what will occur in 
 the future. The analysis is intended merely as a guide to those interested 
 in estimating either the probable price at which a given quantity of canned 
 pears can bo sold or the probable quantity of canned pears which can be 
 sold at a given price under specified conditions. 
 
 In this analysis the average relationships which prevailed from 
 1926-27 through 1936-37 between the f.o.b. prices of canned Bartlett pears 
 and three factors were measured. These three factors are (l) total ship- 
 ments of Pacific Coast canned pears, (2) index of nonagricultural income 
 in the United States, and (3) adjusted index of prices of competing canned 
 fruit. It is not to be supposed that these three factors are the only ones 
 which have affected the annual average f ,o.b, prices of canned pears from 
 1926-27 through 1936-37, or that they arc the only ones which will affect 
 the average f,o,b, prices during the coming years. Neither is it certain 
 that the relationships between the f.o.b. prices of canned pears and the 
 factors measured will be the same in the future as they were on the average 
 during the period covered by the analysis. 
 
 The f.o.b, prices used in this analysis are weighted average prices 
 for all grades and sizes of cars. During the period June 1336 through 
 May 1937, the average f ,o.b, price per case received by California oannors 
 for No, 2^ choice Bartlett pears was 5 per cent above the average f.o.b, 
 price for all grades and sizes of cans. 
 
 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Associate Agricultural 
 Economist in the Experiment Station, and Associate Agricultural Economist 
 on the Giannini Foundation. 
 
 >5^RGsearch Assistant on the Giannini Foundation. 
 
2. 
 
 TABLE 1 
 
 Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Pcfirs, Pacific Coast 
 and Important Factors Affecting Them, 1926-27 to 1936-37 
 
 
 
 Pacific Coast 
 
 
 Adjusted 
 
 Year 
 
 Ft o.b. 
 
 canned 
 
 Index 
 
 ifidex TDrices 
 
 June through I,!ay 
 
 price 
 
 pear 
 
 nonagricultural 
 
 competing 
 
 
 
 shipments 
 
 income 
 
 canned fruits 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 
 dollars 
 
 1,000 
 
 per 
 
 per 
 
 
 per case 
 
 No. Pl- 
 
 cent 
 
 cent 
 
 
 
 eases 
 
 
 
 1926-27 
 
 4.31 
 
 3,378 
 
 101 
 
 100 
 
 1927-28 
 
 4.60 
 
 2,883 
 
 102 
 
 88 
 
 1928-29 
 
 4.13 
 
 3,998 
 
 106 
 
 86 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4.82 
 
 3,580 
 
 107 
 
 100 
 
 1930-31 
 
 3.53 
 
 4,216 
 
 95 
 
 88 
 
 1931-32 
 
 2.82 
 
 3,672 
 
 78 
 
 87 
 
 1932-33 
 
 2.48 
 
 3,532 
 
 62 
 
 97 
 
 1933-34 
 
 2.64 
 
 4,533 
 
 67 
 
 103 
 
 1934-35 
 
 3.05 
 
 4,488 
 
 72 
 
 107 
 
 1935-36 
 
 2.92 
 
 4,560 
 
 78 
 
 94 
 
 1936-37 
 
 2.92 
 
 5,485 
 
 89 
 
 83 
 
 Sourcci of data: 
 
 Col. 1: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are v/cightcd 
 average prices for all grades and sizes of cans, f.o.b. caniiery. 
 
 Col. 2: From table 5, col. 5. 
 
 Col. 3: Simple average of the monthly indexes of nonagricultural 
 income. Recent figures are given in United States Department of Agri- 
 culture Bureau of /igricultural Economics. The Agricultural Situation, 
 current issues. 
 
 Col. 4: From table 4, col. 9. 
 
Fig. 1. — Cannod pears. Pacific Coast: Average f.o.b, prices received by 
 canners related to (a) shipments of canned pears, (b) index of urban consumers' 
 income, and (C) adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits. 1927-28 
 to 1936-37. 
 
 Total shipments — million oases 
 
 60 70 80 90 100 110 
 Index nonagricultural income 
 
 CO 
 
 o 
 u 
 
 ^ +1.00 
 
 CO 
 
 u 
 
 d 
 
 :^ +0.50 
 
 o 
 
 I 
 I 
 
 ca 
 
 E 
 
 o 
 u 
 
 XI 
 •H 
 CO 
 (O 
 OA 
 
 0 
 
 -0,50 
 -1.00 
 
 
 c 
 
 34^ 
 
 
 
 35. y 
 
 >^ 
 ^29 
 
 
 
 23 2:^2 
 ^31 
 
 •26 
 
 
 1 
 
 1 1 
 
 1 1 
 
 1 , 
 
 70 80 90 100 110 120 
 
 Adjusted index of competing 
 canned fruit prices 
 
 On the average (A) an increase in total shipments of canned pears from 
 4,000,000 cases to 4,500,000 cases has been accompanied by a decrease of 18 cents 
 a case in the average f.o.b. price, and vice versa; (b) a change of 10 points in 
 the index of nonagricultural income has been accompanied by a change in the same 
 direction of 48 cents a case in the average f«o«b» price; and (c) a change of 
 10 points in the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits has been 
 accompanied by a change in the same direction of 35 cents a case in the average 
 f.o.b. price. 
 
' 'Stt 
 
 •'Hi 
 
 t. i 
 
TABLE 2 
 
 Actual and Estimated F.O.B, Prices of Canned Pears, Pacific Coast 
 
 1926-27 to 1936-37 
 
 
 
 Prices 
 
 
 Adjustment 
 
 
 Adjustment 
 
 Prices 
 
 
 
 Hc xuax 
 
 estimated 
 
 • 
 
 Residuals 
 
 for nonagri-- 
 
 Residuals 
 
 for competing 
 
 explained 
 
 Col. 1 
 
 June tnrougn May 
 
 prices 
 
 from 
 
 from 
 
 culture,! income 
 
 from 
 
 fruit prices 
 
 bj three 
 
 minus 
 
 
 
 Hp. iil 
 
 ^ ^ Til 
 
 fig. lA 
 
 from fig. IB 
 
 fip. IB 
 
 from fie. IC 
 
 factors 
 
 col. 7 
 
 
 1 
 
 o 
 
 O 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 7 
 
 8 
 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollc^rs 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars 
 
 
 per case 
 
 Der case 
 
 per case 
 
 per case 
 
 per Cise 
 
 per case 
 
 per case 
 
 per case 
 
 J. j<iD— C / 
 
 ft .Ol 
 
 
 -U . i / 
 
 +0 .04 
 
 -0.21 
 
 +0 .14 
 
 4.66 
 
 -0.35 
 
 1927-28 
 
 4.60 
 
 4.78 
 
 -0.18 
 
 +0.10 
 
 -0.28 
 
 -0.28 
 
 4.60 
 
 0 
 
 1928-29 
 
 4.13 
 
 4.15 
 
 -0 .02 
 
 
 — o . ou 
 
 — u • oo 
 
 
 +0 .Uo 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4.82 
 
 4.37 
 
 +0.45 
 
 +0.34 
 
 +0.11 
 
 +0.14 
 
 4*85 
 
 -0.03 
 
 1930-31 
 
 3.53 
 
 4.06 
 
 -0.53 
 
 -0.24 
 
 -0.29 
 
 -0.28 
 
 3.54 
 
 -0.01 
 
 1931-32 
 
 2.82 
 
 4.32 
 
 -1.50 
 
 -1.05 
 
 -0.45 
 
 -0.33 
 
 2.94 
 
 -0.12 
 
 1932-33 
 
 2.48 
 
 4.40 
 
 -1.92 
 
 -1.81 
 
 -0.11 
 
 +0.03 
 
 2.62 
 
 -0.14 
 
 1933-34 
 
 2.64 
 
 3.96 
 
 -1.32 
 
 -1.57 
 
 +0.25 
 
 +0.25 
 
 2.64 
 
 0 
 
 1934-35 
 
 3.05 
 
 3.97 
 
 -0.92 
 
 -1.34 
 
 +0.42 
 
 +0.39 
 
 3.02 
 
 +0.03 
 
 1935-36 
 
 2.92 
 
 3.95 
 
 -1.03 
 
 -1.05 
 
 +0.02 
 
 -0.08 
 
 2.82 
 
 +0.10 
 
 1936-37 
 
 2.92 
 
 3.76 
 
 -0.84 
 
 -0.53 
 
 -0.31 
 
 -0.46 
 
 2.77 
 
 +0.15 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Col. 1: From table 1, col. 1. Col. 5: Col. 3 minus col. 4. 
 
 Col. 2: Readings from curve in fig. lA. Col. 6: Readings from dia,gonal line in fig. IC. 
 
 Col. 3: Col. 1 minus col. 2. Col. 7: Col. 2 plus col. 4 and col. 6. 
 
 Col. 4: Readings from diagonal line in fig. IB. 
 
5. 
 
 TABLE 3 
 
 Pack, Carryover, Shipments, and Exports of Canned Pears, Pacific Coast 
 
 1926-27 to 1936-37 
 
 
 
 Carryover 
 
 
 Carryover 
 
 
 
 Year 
 
 
 from 
 
 Available 
 
 into 
 
 
 
 June through IJiay 
 
 Pack 
 
 preceding 
 
 for 
 
 f olloiving 
 
 Shipments 
 
 Exports 
 
 
 
 year 
 
 shipment 
 
 year 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 
 1,000 
 
 
 l,oOO 
 
 1,000 
 
 1,000 
 
 1,00C; 
 
 
 cases* 
 
 oases* 
 
 cases* 
 
 cases* 
 
 cases* 
 
 cases* 
 
 1926-27 
 
 3,266 
 
 514 
 
 3,780 
 
 402 
 
 3,378 
 
 1,409 
 
 1927-28 
 
 2,648 
 
 402 
 
 3,050 
 
 167 
 
 2,883 
 
 1,236 
 
 1928-29 
 
 4,124 
 
 167 
 
 4,291 
 
 295 
 
 3,998 
 
 1,821 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4,221 
 
 293 
 
 4,514 
 
 934 
 
 3,580 
 
 1,163 
 
 1930-31 
 
 4,175 
 
 934 
 
 5,109 
 
 893 
 
 4,216 
 
 1,595 
 
 1931-32 
 
 3,652 
 
 893 
 
 4,545 
 
 873 
 
 3,672 
 
 1,618 
 
 1932-33 
 
 3,088 
 
 873 
 
 3,961 
 
 429 
 
 3,532 
 
 1,381 
 
 1935-34 
 
 4,377 
 
 429 
 
 4,806 
 
 273 
 
 4, 533 
 
 1,766 
 
 1934-35 
 
 5,505 
 
 273 
 
 5,778 
 
 1,290 
 
 4,488 
 
 1,503 
 
 1935-36 
 
 4,230 
 
 1,290 
 
 5,520 
 
 960 
 
 4,560 
 
 1,894 
 
 1936-37 
 
 5, 355 
 
 960 
 
 6,315 
 
 830 
 
 5,485 
 
 1,465 
 
 * No. 2-|-oan basis. 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Col. 1: Compiled by the Canners League of California and the 
 Northwest Canners Association. 
 
 Cols. 2 and 4: Figures for California compiled by the Canners 
 League of California, Figures for Pacific Northwest estimated from reports 
 of canners, except for 1932 through 1934 which were compiled by the 
 Northwest Canners Association, 
 
 Col. 3: Col. 1 plus col. 2. 
 Col. 5: Col. 3 minus col. 4. 
 
 Col, 6: United States Department of Commerce. Monthly sumiuary 
 of foreign commerce of the United States. Fjqoorts in pounds converted 
 to approximate cases of 24 No. cans at 45 pounds to the case. 
 
TABLE 4 
 
 Constru-ction of Index of PricciS of Canned Fruits Competing 
 with Canned Pears, 1926-27 to 1936-37 
 
 Yesr 
 
 Prices 
 
 Relatives of price 
 
 s 
 
 Unadjusted 
 index of 
 competing 
 
 canned fruit 
 orices 
 
 Index of 1 
 nonaf ri- 
 cultursl 
 income 
 
 Adjusted 
 index of 
 competing 
 canned fruit 
 oriccs 
 
 June through 'lay 
 
 Canned 
 clingstone 
 poaches 
 
 Canned 
 apricots 
 
 Canned 
 pineapples 
 
 Cannad 
 slingstone 
 Deaches 
 
 Canned 
 apricots 
 
 Canned 
 pineapples 
 
 1926- 27 
 
 1927- 28 
 
 1928- 29 
 
 1929- 30 
 
 1930- 31 
 
 1931- 32 
 
 1932- 33 
 
 1933- 34 
 
 1934- 35 
 
 1935- 36 
 
 1936- 37 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 7 
 
 8 
 
 9 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars 
 
 dollars per 
 
 1924-29 
 
 1924-29 
 
 1924-29 
 
 1924-29 
 = 100 
 
 iOl 
 
 90 
 
 91 
 107 
 
 84 
 
 68 
 
 60 
 
 69 
 
 77 
 
 73 
 
 74 
 
 192-^-23 
 ^ 100 
 
 101 
 102 
 106 
 107 
 
 95 
 
 78 
 
 62 
 
 67 
 
 72 
 
 78 
 
 89 
 
 1924-29 
 = 100 
 
 100 
 88 
 
 Q C 
 
 00 
 
 100 
 
 88 
 
 87 
 
 97 
 103 
 107 
 
 94 
 
 83 
 
 Der case 
 
 Der c-se 
 
 dozen cans 
 
 = 100 
 
 = 100 
 
 = 100 
 
 103 
 92 
 96 
 
 103 
 92 
 66 
 70 
 79 
 79 
 79 
 79 
 
 3.66 
 3.17 
 3.22 
 4.08 
 2.88 
 2.55 
 1.97 
 2.31 
 2.69 
 2.51 
 2.66 
 
 3.85 
 3.97 
 3.67 
 3.97 
 3.32 
 2.64 
 2.23 
 2.37 
 3.47 
 2.93 
 2.75 
 
 2.35 
 
 2.10 
 
 2.20 
 
 2.35 
 
 2.10 
 
 1.50* 
 
 1.60 
 
 1.50 
 
 1.80 
 
 1.80 
 
 1.80 
 
 99 
 86 
 87 
 111 
 78 
 69 
 53 
 63 
 73 
 68 
 72 
 
 i 
 
 100 
 103 
 95 
 103 
 86 
 69 
 58 
 62 
 90 
 76 
 71 
 
 • Opening price, $1.75; account taken of break in prices during season. 
 
 Sources of dfta: 
 
 Cols. 1 and 2: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are weighted average prices for all grades and sizes 
 of cans, f.o.h. c^nnory, California. 
 
 Col. 3: Opening prices for No. 2i Sliced Fancy Pine-.pple, Ha^^aii, as given in Western Canner and Packer, 1937 
 Yearbook, p. 85. 
 
 Cols. 4, 5, and 6: Prices given in cols. 1, 2, :.nd 3 in per cent of their 1924-29 averages - canned clingstone 
 peaches, $3,687; canned apricots, $3,848; and canned pineapples, $2,292. 
 
 Col. 7: Weighted, combination of relatives given in cols. 4, 5, and 6, using following weights: canned clingstone 
 peaches, 8; canned apricots, 2; and canned pineapples, 6. (Table continued on next page) 
 
Table 4 continued. 
 
 Col. 8: From table 1, col. 3. 
 Col. 9: Col. 7 divided by col.