University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE AMNUAL AVERAGE F.O.B. PRICES OF PACIFIC COAST CANKED B.-UITLETT PEARS, 1926-27 to 1936-37 toy H. R. Wellman and M. D. Street August, 1937 Contribution from the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Mimeographed Report No. 61 saANCH OF THE ^ MiQtOf AflRlCULTUFE STATISTICAL MALYSIS OF THE imVI\L AVERIGE F.O.B. PRICES OF PACIFIC COAST C/iMED B;JITLETT PE.\RS^ 1926-27 to 1936-37 H. R. Wellinan-i'aiid M, D. Street^ The purpose of this report is to present the results of an analysis of the major factors which havo influonoed the annual average f.o.b, prices received for canned Bartlett pears by canners on the Pacific Coast from 1926-27 through 1936-37. It should be clearly recognized that the results presented heroin explain only what has occurred. They do not forecast what will occur in the future. The analysis is intended merely as a guide to those interested in estimating either the probable price at which a given quantity of canned pears can bo sold or the probable quantity of canned pears which can be sold at a given price under specified conditions. In this analysis the average relationships which prevailed from 1926-27 through 1936-37 between the f.o.b. prices of canned Bartlett pears and three factors were measured. These three factors are (l) total ship- ments of Pacific Coast canned pears, (2) index of nonagricultural income in the United States, and (3) adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruit. It is not to be supposed that these three factors are the only ones which have affected the annual average f ,o.b, prices of canned pears from 1926-27 through 1936-37, or that they arc the only ones which will affect the average f,o,b, prices during the coming years. Neither is it certain that the relationships between the f.o.b. prices of canned pears and the factors measured will be the same in the future as they were on the average during the period covered by the analysis. The f.o.b, prices used in this analysis are weighted average prices for all grades and sizes of cars. During the period June 1336 through May 1937, the average f ,o.b, price per case received by California oannors for No, 2^ choice Bartlett pears was 5 per cent above the average f.o.b, price for all grades and sizes of cans. Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Associate Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station, and Associate Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. >5^RGsearch Assistant on the Giannini Foundation. 2. TABLE 1 Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Pcfirs, Pacific Coast and Important Factors Affecting Them, 1926-27 to 1936-37 Pacific Coast Adjusted Year Ft o.b. canned Index ifidex TDrices June through I,!ay price pear nonagricultural competing shipments income canned fruits 1 2 3 4 dollars 1,000 per per per case No. Pl- cent cent eases 1926-27 4.31 3,378 101 100 1927-28 4.60 2,883 102 88 1928-29 4.13 3,998 106 86 1929-30 4.82 3,580 107 100 1930-31 3.53 4,216 95 88 1931-32 2.82 3,672 78 87 1932-33 2.48 3,532 62 97 1933-34 2.64 4,533 67 103 1934-35 3.05 4,488 72 107 1935-36 2.92 4,560 78 94 1936-37 2.92 5,485 89 83 Sourcci of data: Col. 1: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are v/cightcd average prices for all grades and sizes of cans, f.o.b. caniiery. Col. 2: From table 5, col. 5. Col. 3: Simple average of the monthly indexes of nonagricultural income. Recent figures are given in United States Department of Agri- culture Bureau of /igricultural Economics. The Agricultural Situation, current issues. Col. 4: From table 4, col. 9. Fig. 1. — Cannod pears. Pacific Coast: Average f.o.b, prices received by canners related to (a) shipments of canned pears, (b) index of urban consumers' income, and (C) adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits. 1927-28 to 1936-37. Total shipments — million oases 60 70 80 90 100 110 Index nonagricultural income CO o u ^ +1.00 CO u d :^ +0.50 o I I ca E o u XI •H CO (O OA 0 -0,50 -1.00 c 34^ 35. y >^ ^29 23 2:^2 ^31 •26 1 1 1 1 1 1 , 70 80 90 100 110 120 Adjusted index of competing canned fruit prices On the average (A) an increase in total shipments of canned pears from 4,000,000 cases to 4,500,000 cases has been accompanied by a decrease of 18 cents a case in the average f.o.b. price, and vice versa; (b) a change of 10 points in the index of nonagricultural income has been accompanied by a change in the same direction of 48 cents a case in the average f«o«b» price; and (c) a change of 10 points in the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits has been accompanied by a change in the same direction of 35 cents a case in the average f.o.b. price. ' 'Stt •'Hi t. i TABLE 2 Actual and Estimated F.O.B, Prices of Canned Pears, Pacific Coast 1926-27 to 1936-37 Prices Adjustment Adjustment Prices Hc xuax estimated • Residuals for nonagri-- Residuals for competing explained Col. 1 June tnrougn May prices from from culture,! income from fruit prices bj three minus Hp. iil ^ ^ Til fig. lA from fig. IB fip. IB from fie. IC factors col. 7 1 o O 4 5 6 7 8 dollars dollars dollars dollc^rs dollars dollars dollars dollars per case Der case per case per case per Cise per case per case per case J. j