University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE AMNUAL AVERAGE F.O.B. PRICES OF PACIFIC COAST CANKED B.-UITLETT PEARS, 1926-27 to 1936-37 toy H. R. Wellman and M. D. Street August, 1937 Contribution from the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Mimeographed Report No. 61 saANCH OF THE ^ MiQtOf AflRlCULTUFE STATISTICAL MALYSIS OF THE imVI\L AVERIGE F.O.B. PRICES OF PACIFIC COAST C/iMED B;JITLETT PE.\RS^ 1926-27 to 1936-37 H. R. Wellinan-i'aiid M, D. Street^ The purpose of this report is to present the results of an analysis of the major factors which havo influonoed the annual average f.o.b, prices received for canned Bartlett pears by canners on the Pacific Coast from 1926-27 through 1936-37. It should be clearly recognized that the results presented heroin explain only what has occurred. They do not forecast what will occur in the future. The analysis is intended merely as a guide to those interested in estimating either the probable price at which a given quantity of canned pears can bo sold or the probable quantity of canned pears which can be sold at a given price under specified conditions. In this analysis the average relationships which prevailed from 1926-27 through 1936-37 between the f.o.b. prices of canned Bartlett pears and three factors were measured. These three factors are (l) total ship- ments of Pacific Coast canned pears, (2) index of nonagricultural income in the United States, and (3) adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruit. It is not to be supposed that these three factors are the only ones which have affected the annual average f ,o.b, prices of canned pears from 1926-27 through 1936-37, or that they arc the only ones which will affect the average f,o,b, prices during the coming years. Neither is it certain that the relationships between the f.o.b. prices of canned pears and the factors measured will be the same in the future as they were on the average during the period covered by the analysis. The f.o.b, prices used in this analysis are weighted average prices for all grades and sizes of cars. During the period June 1336 through May 1937, the average f ,o.b, price per case received by California oannors for No, 2^ choice Bartlett pears was 5 per cent above the average f.o.b, price for all grades and sizes of cans. Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Associate Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station, and Associate Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. >5^RGsearch Assistant on the Giannini Foundation. 2. TABLE 1 Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Pcfirs, Pacific Coast and Important Factors Affecting Them, 1926-27 to 1936-37 Pacific Coast Adjusted Year Ft o.b. canned Index ifidex TDrices June through I,!ay price pear nonagricultural competing shipments income canned fruits 1 2 3 4 dollars 1,000 per per per case No. Pl- cent cent eases 1926-27 4.31 3,378 101 100 1927-28 4.60 2,883 102 88 1928-29 4.13 3,998 106 86 1929-30 4.82 3,580 107 100 1930-31 3.53 4,216 95 88 1931-32 2.82 3,672 78 87 1932-33 2.48 3,532 62 97 1933-34 2.64 4,533 67 103 1934-35 3.05 4,488 72 107 1935-36 2.92 4,560 78 94 1936-37 2.92 5,485 89 83 Sourcci of data: Col. 1: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are v/cightcd average prices for all grades and sizes of cans, f.o.b. caniiery. Col. 2: From table 5, col. 5. Col. 3: Simple average of the monthly indexes of nonagricultural income. Recent figures are given in United States Department of Agri- culture Bureau of /igricultural Economics. The Agricultural Situation, current issues. Col. 4: From table 4, col. 9. Fig. 1. — Cannod pears. Pacific Coast: Average f.o.b, prices received by canners related to (a) shipments of canned pears, (b) index of urban consumers' income, and (C) adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits. 1927-28 to 1936-37. Total shipments — million oases 60 70 80 90 100 110 Index nonagricultural income CO o u ^ +1.00 CO u d :^ +0.50 o I I ca E o u XI •H CO (O OA 0 -0,50 -1.00 c 34^ 35. y >^ ^29 23 2:^2 ^31 •26 1 1 1 1 1 1 , 70 80 90 100 110 120 Adjusted index of competing canned fruit prices On the average (A) an increase in total shipments of canned pears from 4,000,000 cases to 4,500,000 cases has been accompanied by a decrease of 18 cents a case in the average f.o.b. price, and vice versa; (b) a change of 10 points in the index of nonagricultural income has been accompanied by a change in the same direction of 48 cents a case in the average f«o«b» price; and (c) a change of 10 points in the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits has been accompanied by a change in the same direction of 35 cents a case in the average f.o.b. price. ' 'Stt •'Hi t. i TABLE 2 Actual and Estimated F.O.B, Prices of Canned Pears, Pacific Coast 1926-27 to 1936-37 Prices Adjustment Adjustment Prices Hc xuax estimated • Residuals for nonagri-- Residuals for competing explained Col. 1 June tnrougn May prices from from culture,! income from fruit prices bj three minus Hp. iil ^ ^ Til fig. lA from fig. IB fip. IB from fie. IC factors col. 7 1 o O 4 5 6 7 8 dollars dollars dollars dollc^rs dollars dollars dollars dollars per case Der case per case per case per Cise per case per case per case J. j<iD— C / ft .Ol -U . i / +0 .04 -0.21 +0 .14 4.66 -0.35 1927-28 4.60 4.78 -0.18 +0.10 -0.28 -0.28 4.60 0 1928-29 4.13 4.15 -0 .02 — o . ou — u • oo +0 .Uo 1929-30 4.82 4.37 +0.45 +0.34 +0.11 +0.14 4*85 -0.03 1930-31 3.53 4.06 -0.53 -0.24 -0.29 -0.28 3.54 -0.01 1931-32 2.82 4.32 -1.50 -1.05 -0.45 -0.33 2.94 -0.12 1932-33 2.48 4.40 -1.92 -1.81 -0.11 +0.03 2.62 -0.14 1933-34 2.64 3.96 -1.32 -1.57 +0.25 +0.25 2.64 0 1934-35 3.05 3.97 -0.92 -1.34 +0.42 +0.39 3.02 +0.03 1935-36 2.92 3.95 -1.03 -1.05 +0.02 -0.08 2.82 +0.10 1936-37 2.92 3.76 -0.84 -0.53 -0.31 -0.46 2.77 +0.15 Sources of data: Col. 1: From table 1, col. 1. Col. 5: Col. 3 minus col. 4. Col. 2: Readings from curve in fig. lA. Col. 6: Readings from dia,gonal line in fig. IC. Col. 3: Col. 1 minus col. 2. Col. 7: Col. 2 plus col. 4 and col. 6. Col. 4: Readings from diagonal line in fig. IB. 5. TABLE 3 Pack, Carryover, Shipments, and Exports of Canned Pears, Pacific Coast 1926-27 to 1936-37 Carryover Carryover Year from Available into June through IJiay Pack preceding for f olloiving Shipments Exports year shipment year 1 2 3 4 5 6 1,000 l,oOO 1,000 1,000 1,00C; cases* oases* cases* cases* cases* cases* 1926-27 3,266 514 3,780 402 3,378 1,409 1927-28 2,648 402 3,050 167 2,883 1,236 1928-29 4,124 167 4,291 295 3,998 1,821 1929-30 4,221 293 4,514 934 3,580 1,163 1930-31 4,175 934 5,109 893 4,216 1,595 1931-32 3,652 893 4,545 873 3,672 1,618 1932-33 3,088 873 3,961 429 3,532 1,381 1935-34 4,377 429 4,806 273 4, 533 1,766 1934-35 5,505 273 5,778 1,290 4,488 1,503 1935-36 4,230 1,290 5,520 960 4,560 1,894 1936-37 5, 355 960 6,315 830 5,485 1,465 * No. 2-|-oan basis. Sources of data: Col. 1: Compiled by the Canners League of California and the Northwest Canners Association. Cols. 2 and 4: Figures for California compiled by the Canners League of California, Figures for Pacific Northwest estimated from reports of canners, except for 1932 through 1934 which were compiled by the Northwest Canners Association, Col. 3: Col. 1 plus col. 2. Col. 5: Col. 3 minus col. 4. Col, 6: United States Department of Commerce. Monthly sumiuary of foreign commerce of the United States. Fjqoorts in pounds converted to approximate cases of 24 No. cans at 45 pounds to the case. TABLE 4 Constru-ction of Index of PricciS of Canned Fruits Competing with Canned Pears, 1926-27 to 1936-37 Yesr Prices Relatives of price s Unadjusted index of competing canned fruit orices Index of 1 nonaf ri- cultursl income Adjusted index of competing canned fruit oriccs June through 'lay Canned clingstone poaches Canned apricots Canned pineapples Cannad slingstone Deaches Canned apricots Canned pineapples 1926- 27 1927- 28 1928- 29 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 34 1934- 35 1935- 36 1936- 37 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 dollars dollars dollars per 1924-29 1924-29 1924-29 1924-29 = 100 iOl 90 91 107 84 68 60 69 77 73 74 192-^-23 ^ 100 101 102 106 107 95 78 62 67 72 78 89 1924-29 = 100 100 88 Q C 00 100 88 87 97 103 107 94 83 Der case Der c-se dozen cans = 100 = 100 = 100 103 92 96 103 92 66 70 79 79 79 79 3.66 3.17 3.22 4.08 2.88 2.55 1.97 2.31 2.69 2.51 2.66 3.85 3.97 3.67 3.97 3.32 2.64 2.23 2.37 3.47 2.93 2.75 2.35 2.10 2.20 2.35 2.10 1.50* 1.60 1.50 1.80 1.80 1.80 99 86 87 111 78 69 53 63 73 68 72 i 100 103 95 103 86 69 58 62 90 76 71 • Opening price, $1.75; account taken of break in prices during season. Sources of dfta: Cols. 1 and 2: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are weighted average prices for all grades and sizes of cans, f.o.h. c^nnory, California. Col. 3: Opening prices for No. 2i Sliced Fancy Pine-.pple, Ha^^aii, as given in Western Canner and Packer, 1937 Yearbook, p. 85. Cols. 4, 5, and 6: Prices given in cols. 1, 2, :.nd 3 in per cent of their 1924-29 averages - canned clingstone peaches, $3,687; canned apricots, $3,848; and canned pineapples, $2,292. Col. 7: Weighted, combination of relatives given in cols. 4, 5, and 6, using following weights: canned clingstone peaches, 8; canned apricots, 2; and canned pineapples, 6. (Table continued on next page) Table 4 continued. Col. 8: From table 1, col. 3. Col. 9: Col. 7 divided by col.