^/ojnviHO^ 3 /OJIlVJ-JO kOKAHFQfy _M \ & % *%HVH8IH^ I I S fe I ?' o 1 I < I a 5 S i ^LIBRARYC u? ^OKAllFQBfc Ml s ll&Auviian-s^ ft I i I 35 ^Aavnan-^ clOSANCElfj., a i? I I s s i .1 FACTS ADDRESSED TO THE SERIOUS ATTENTION OF THE PEOPLE OF GREAT BRITAIN RESPECTING THE EXPENGE OP THE WAR, AND THE STATE OF THE NATIONAL DEBT, Flagitio additis Damnum. HOR. By WILLIAM MORGAN, F. R. S. FOURTH EDITION, IMPROVED. LONDON: PRINTED FOR J. DEBRETT, PICCADILLY, AND T. CADKLL, JUN. ATJB W. DAVIES, (SUCCESSORS TO T. CA- ELL) STRAND. 1796. Stack Annex sr PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION. IN the following tract I have confined my- felf entirely to an examination of the effects which the war has already produced on the finances of this country; and I think it will appear that the expenditure of the laft three years has added fo enormoufly to the national debt, that if the fame unexampled diflipation of the public treafure be continued much longer, it muft inevitably terminate in bank- ruptcy and ruin. I have not entered into a defcription of the carnage and the miferies by which this war has been fo peculiarly diftinguilhed, and which muft ficken every friend of humanity, well A 3 know- knowing that confederations of this kind . fel- dom influence the councils of ftatefmen, or even fufficiently roufe the indignation of a people. While the ravages of war are fpread^. ing death and defolation at the dillance of a thoufand miles they are but little regarded, Misfortune muft make very near approaches to the great mafs of mankind before it excites their alarm. It muft prefs immediately upon themfelves before they ferioufly begin to feel for the miferies of their fellow creatures. In whatever deteftation, therefore, I may hold this war both in regard to its principle and the manner in which it is conducted,. I have chofen to appeal to the lower paiTion of felf- intereft, rather than to the fublime feelings of humanity; being convinced, notwithstanding this country may boaft of as many good men as any other, that this is the only means of awakening an effectual oppofition to the pre- fent fyftem. I have been much indebtcfi, in the compo- fition of this work, to a pamphlet bearing 3 th 6 the fame title, which was published during the American war by Dr. Price and another learned and eminent patriot who is ftill living ; and I had once intended to have divided it into the fame general heads of the " King's Civil Lift," " The Chancellor of the Exchequer's Civil Lift," * The firft Lord of the Admi- ralty's Civil Lift," &c. But the lofs of our property is not the only lofs we have fuftained by the prefent war, and therefore whoever reads that admirable pamphlet, will foon per- ceive that it was more expedient at this time to adopt a different plan. Having no other wifh than to promote the happinefs and li- berty of this country, I am anxious only to expofe the errors and mifconduct of minifters fo far as to awaken the public attention to the calamities with which we are endangered ; be- ing fatisfied that, when thefe are clearly feen and underftood, the authors of them will be fufficiently reprobated without the trouble of expatiating on their wickednefs and incapacity. January ith, 1796. ADVER- ADVERTISEMENT SECOND EDITION. THE principal additions which have been made to this work in the prefent edition, may be found in the pth page, in two notes in the i6th and 4^d pages, and in the Appendix. February iqth, 1796. Pullijhed by the fame Author > and printed for 1. Cadell y Jun. and W. Davies in the Strand, REVIEW or Dr. PRICED WRITINGS ON THE FINANCES OF GREAT BRITAIN. To which are added, the Three Plans communicated by him to Mr. PITT, in the year -1786, for redeeming the National Debt an Account of the Real State of the Public Income and Expenditure, from the Efta- blifhment of the Confolidated Fund to the year 1791 -and alfo a Supplement continuing the Account to 1795, and dating the Amount of the Public Debt in the Beginning of that Year. Second Edition, Price 2s.6d. FACTS, &c. SECTION I. On tie EXPENCE of the Prefent War, W*! HATEVER difference of opinion may be entertained refpecting the jujlice and necef- ftty of the prefent war, there can be none in regard to the enormity of the expence with which it is attended. Compared with every other war in which this country has been in- volved, it will appear to be fo ruinous, as hardly to admit of any provocation fufficient to juftify the evils which it has already pro- duced. We are faid to be contending for all B that that is mofl important to property, focial order, and the religion of mankind, and are called upon to facrfice every other intereft rather than not fucceed in attaining thefe ob- jedts. But have not wars, fo far from im- proving, always been found to deftroy the property of a nation ? and have not the cru- fades which have hitherto been carried on in the name of religion,* invariably difgraccd and ruined the caufe they profefied to main- tain ? The confequcnces of this war may pof- fibly be different ; although its warmeft ad- vocates mud: acknowledge that the profpect at prefent is neither encouraging nor confolatory. Feeling, however, no difpolition to enter upon this part of the fubjecT:, 1 mean only to ftate a few fa efts concerning the public expen- diture for the laft three years, being fatisfied that if thefe do not imprefs the reader, it would be in vain for me to attempt it by arguments of any other kind. It is a melancholy truth, that every war in which we have been engaged for the laft cen- tury, has uniformly proved more xpenlivq than any that had preceded it. But the Ame- * This, I believe, is the firft cru&Ue for focial order. ricaa ( 3 ) rican War was fo peculiarly diftingiufhed in this refpecfl, as to create an opinion that we had then arrived at the higheft point of pro- fan" on, and that neither the credit nor the re- fources of the country could furvive a repeti* tion, much lefs an aggravation of this evil. The experience, however, of the laft three years has fhewn this opinion to have been ill- founded, and that the limits of our expendi- ture were at a much greater diftance than the extravagance and diffipation even of that war had taught us to place them. Of this fact no doubt can be entertained by any perfon who is in the leaft acquainted with public affairs ; and the following ftatements are given, not with the view of proving what is already fo well known, but in order to point out the enormous magnitude of the fum by which the expences of the firft four * years of the pre- fent war have exceeded thofe of the fame term in the American war. * This is faid on the fuppofition that the fupplies for the next campaign are provided for. B War TLjlabtiflmenl actnrdlnf to the EJlimatts of Lord NOK.TH. Navy Army {In the Year 1776.) . 3, 12 7,o 5 6 -3,461,282 ce 472:817 Total. (IntheY Kavy Army Ordnance 8,576,714 (lathe Year 1778.) : Navy . .4,00.1,895 Array 4^59,107 Ordnance 683,300 - 9>544>32 97>9i5 Army 3>9937i5 Ordnance 783,767 Total. 8,749,397 (In the Year 1794.) Navy 6,340,000 Army 5,525,000 Ordnance 1,345,000 I3,2IO,CO (In February 1795.) Navy 6,315-523 Army 11,036,967 Ordnance 2,321,011 (In December 1795-) Na\y 7,071,000 Army 9,6^0,000 Ordnance 1,744,000 18,416,000 Amount of the Efti- mates for four Years .60,048,898 , Neither of thefe fums include the votes of credit, mifcellaneous fervices, &c. which be- ing nearly in the fame proportion to each other as the above eftimates, do not affect the con- clufion to be drawn from this flatement ** That the expences of the firfl four years ** pf the prefent war are two-thirds greater i " than ( 5 ') " than thofe of the firft four years of the moft " extravagant war in which this country had 44 ever been engaged."* Had the compari- fon been made with the expenditure of other wars, the refult would have been much more ilriking.-f But it is to be obferved, that the prefent year has produced the new phenome- non of two budgets, and therefore in order to give a full and adequate idea of the expence of this war compared with that of the Ame- rican, it will be necelTary to ftate the whole amount of the debt incurred by both wars during the fame period from their commence- ment. As the expences of the next campaign are faid to be provided for by the loan in De- cember laft, I mall in this account give the whole of the debt incurred from the year 1776 * If the year 1775 had been taken as the firft year of th* American war, the excefs would have been ftill greater. f In the year 1704, which was diftinguiflied by the battle of Blenheim, the capture of Gibraltar, and other exploits, Lord Godolphin's eftimates, as laid before Parliament, were, for the Navy, - 2,693,135 Army, - 1,801,005 - Ordnaoce 153,000 ^.4,647,140 which is not one-fourth the amount of the eftimates for the laft campaign. to C 6 ) to 1780, which includes an equal number of campaigns with the prefent war, admitting even, againfl all probability, that the expences of the next campaign will not exceed the pro- viiions which have been made for them by the laft loan. Debt ( 7 ) *lOO OOO <** *o *s\ N vr,oo 00 1 ilji5l - rt fc cj; 5 Q 5 in 5 5 < 3 S o o o ,8 8 8 ^ *? 5 * 3 o o o o 1.0888 C <^ O O O O . ^S i^ o O O 1 9, o o ) 00 C> ^ C = 8S *s 2 M ' 9 S TS. ^ 1 I .31 ^ s 3 ! o- g o > .S 2 t^ ^ " 25- V5 < ^.-.g M 'ft Q s?88^8 5*^' 1 u r^ 1 | i *"fciUj ili'l l| 5 CO 3 . ==^ ol ^M K I Is* S 8 ! rjlj -a 5 S 2s C w v v2 I " ft I e Si'is I 2 a ?' < s ; ^ 1 5u H S- I ii It ! i II X I I o ^ i ill ua ( 9 ) The probable expences which cannot im- mediately ceafe with the termination of the xvar, and which have been eftimated in the account of the American war, together with the bounty on corn, the arrears now due for the cloathing and pay of the army, the fums borrowed of the Bank on the anticipation of the land and malt tax, the addition to the navy debt lince Chriftmas, and other articles too numerous to be mentioned, may not only be placed againft fo much of the unfunded debt as was incurred previous to hoflilities, but may be ftated fo far to exceed it, that ex- cluflve even of the Emperor's loan which has already been granted him, and of another loan to him with which this country is threat- ened for the enfuing campaign, the expence of the war, which commenced only in February 1793, may be fairly eftimated at one hundred millions. In other other words, the debt in- curred by the prefent war is more than double the debt incurred during the fame period by a war which was then reprefented with truth to be the moft expensive that had ever been car- ried on by this country. C Were ( 'P ) Were the progrefs of our expences to be traced during the feveral wars in which we have been engaged for the lait century, we ihould find it uniformly accelerating in every department. We mould find the accounts of the navy, the army, and the ordnance, as if proud of keeping pace with each other and furpafling thofe that have preceded them, con- tinually increafing in the enormity of their amount. But the limits which I have affign- ed to this treatife will not allow me to enter into a minute detail of thefe particulars, and therefore I mall confine myfelf to one article, which may perhaps be fufficient to give the reader a proper idea of the reft. Ordnance EJfimates voted in the Tears t - - I75* 2 99> T 57 i??^ 47 I S i 7 T 793 783.76? J 757 437> 6 " '777 59 1 .? 1 ? J 794 1,345,000 1 75% 391*807 1778 683,299 (Feb.) 1795 2,321,011 1759 554>277 J779 9^7.373 (Dec.) 1795 i,744> Total in 4 years 1,68^,863 2,666,316 6,193,778 From this flatement we may perceive the progreflive increafe of 'the ordnance eftimates. In the American war they were one half grea- ter ter than in the preceding war. In the prefent they are more than double what they were in the American war: nay in the laft year* alone they were nearly equal to their whole amount in the firfl: four years of the Ameri- can war : and in the prefent year they are more than equal to the whole amount of the firfl four years of the preceding one. In the army and navy the expenditure has increafed in the fame proportion. Nor is the evil con- fined to thefe important departments only. In every inferior department it has proceeded with an equal pace : even the fecret fervice money, which in the war of 1755 was 44,ooo/. per ann. and which had increafed in the American war to 86, coo/, per ann. amounted in the laft year to the ihipendous fum of 151,0007. / But it is unneceffary to enter further into particular inftances. The accounts which I have given of the debts al- ready incurred by this war afford fufficient proof of its exceeding ail others in expence. * The ordnance eftimates in this year were rx *e than half the air.ouiit of Lord Godolpbins eftimates tor the whoic of the war eftablifhment in 1704, and in the prefent year they fau ery Kttle fliort of the whole of the army eftimates in that memorable year. (See Note, page 5.) C 2 Whe- Whether thefe debts have been compenfated by the value of our conquefls in Corjica^ Uljle Dieu, and elfewhere or whether the public money has been expended with ceco- nomy and wifdom, are matters which admit of much doubt, but being entirely foreign to my purpofe, I fhall not enter upon the confi- deration of them. My defign in this treatife is not to examine the operations of the ivar minifter, but thofe of the minifter of finance. Inflead therefore of inquiring into the manner in which the public money has been expended, I fhall now inquire into the mann^a; in whicfy it has been borrowed. SECTION, ( 13 ) SECTION II. On the LOANS In the prcfent .H.AVING in the foregoing fed ion exhi- bited the enormous amount of the expenditure in the laft three years, it may be neceflary here to add, that this has been done by an administration which at its commencement had aflumed to itfelf the greatefl merit in re- ducing the public debts. From fuch an ad- miniflration, therefore, it will be naturally expected that the money has been raifed to- wards providing for this expenditure by bor- rowing on the moil frugal terms, and that care has been taken that no needlefs addition has been made to the capital of a debt which had alarmed the nation by its magnitude long before this expenditure had become neceiTary. It has been very juflly objected to Lord North's loans, that they were chiefly made in a flock which bore a low interefl, by which means the ( 14 ) the capital of the public debt was increafed in a much greater proportion than it would have been, had they been made in a flock which bore a higher intereft. The following comparifon of the loans made in the firft four years of the American war, and thofe which have been made in the prefent war, will mew how far Mr. Pitt has corrected the errors of his predecei'ibr. Borrowed in Cafe rcccivtJ. - f 1776, 2,150,000 Stock in the 3 per cents, ?.'. 85 per cent. 1,^7,500 1 777 5,000,000 Stock in the 4 per cents, at 95 per csnt. 4,750,000 1778, 6,000,000 Stock hi the 3 per cents, a: 66^ per cent. 3,990,000 1 779 7,000,000 Ditto at 60 per cent. 4,200,000 20,150,000 Capital Ca(h received 14,767,500 1793, 6,250,000 Stock int!i^ ? per cents, at 72 per cent. 4^500,000 1794, 11,000,000 Ditto at 67! per cent. 7,425,000 1794, 2,750,000 Stock in the^per cents, at 84 per cent. , J 7,no,oco 1795, 6,000,000 Ditto at 80 .per cent. -* Rb. 1795, 18,000,000 Stock in the 3 p:r cents, at 62 per cent. Ii,i6o,coo Dec. 1795, 26,100,000 Do. ^at 66 per cent. 17,226,000 70,100,000 Capital f Cafh received 47,421,000 It appears from this account, that Lord North for receiving the fum of 14, 767,5007. * The average price of ftock in thofe yeaiCi f Exclusive of the Emperor's loan. added added to the capital 5,382,5007. more than the money advanced, and that Mr. Pitt for the fum of 47,421 ,ooo/. has added to the capital 22,679,0007. more than the money advanced, which ought not to have exceeded 1 7, 284,0007. had he borrowed even upon no better plan than his predecefTor. If the Em- peror's loan in the three per cents be added to the above account, the capital in this cafe will be 73,933,0007. and the fum received 49,568,0007., which will make the excefs of^ the former above the latter equal to 24,365,0007. During the whole courfe of the American war, Lord North funded 73,4OO,ooo/. in the three and four per cents, for which the fum of 47,968,0007. was ad- vanced. Mr. Pitt therefore in the firft four years of the preient war does not feem to have borrowed money on a much better plan than Lord North did during the whole term of the American war j the one having created a need- lefs capital of more twenty-two millions and a half on a fum of 47,421,0007.,* the other having created a needlefs capital of twenty-five millions and a half on a fum of 47,968,0007. * Or, including the Emperor's loan, of 24! millions on a fum of 49,568,0007. 3 But But if this war be protracted, the terms of the loan muil necefTarily become worfe and \vorfe, fo that by the time it has continued as long as the former war, it will be well if the capital of the debt increafes only twice as fail as the money is advanced. By adopting the ruinous method cf borrowing in the three per cent s y Mr. Pitt has, in this inilance at leail, relinquiihed the principles with which he commenced his adminiftration. He was then aware that the redemption of the public debts was facilitated by the converilon of this fiock into another bearing a higher intereil, and fubmitted a plan for that purpofe to the consideration of Dr. Price* If the debts be redeemed with greater eafe in a flock bearing a high intereil, they mull neceffarily accumu- late fafler by borrowing in a flock bearing a low intereil, -f- This is the flock, however, in which * See my Review of Dr. Prices writings on the finances of Great Britain, p. 19, &c. f Some perfons of the firft abilities have maintained, that it makes no difference in what (lock the money is borrowed, fince even- loan is to be considered only as a perpetual annuity; and therefore it is of no confequence how much the capital is increafed. This opinion (which I cannot imagine Mr. Pitt to. entertain) is founded on the fuppofition that the debts are neve? ( '7 ) "which the Minifter has chofen to make th6 principal part of all his loans, but particu* larly the laft, which almoft wholly confifts of it. In that loan eighteen millions have been borrowed by creating a capital of 26, ioo,ooo/* flock in the three per cents, and granting an annuity for 64 years of 58,5007., which, reckoning intereft according to the rate at which this money was raifed, is worth i,2i2,ooo7. If thefe two fums be added, their amount will be equal to 27,312,0007. which is juft one half greater than the money .received; that is, for every ioo/. received in money, the public debts are increafed I5O/. Had this money been raifed in the Jour per cents, by granting 1 2o7. flock for every ioo7. .advanced, the capital would have been increafed only to 2i,6oo,ooo7. and the intereft in both cafes would have been very nearly the fame. For according to the prefent terms, the public creditor for every ioo7. advanced, is allowed an annuity of 6s. 6d. 1457. flock in the three per to be paid, and confequently that "every addition to them is 4 nearer approach to bankruptcy. If this be true we muft be acknowledged to have taken very long and alarming ftrides to- wards ruin in the laft three years. D cents cents (the interefl of which is 4/. 75.) and alfo a drawback in the proportion of i/. los. to I2O/. flock in the three per cents, amounting to i/. i6s. id. which is nearly equivalent to is. per annum in the long annuities. Thefe three fums, 6s. 6d. 4/. *js. and 2s. amount together to 4/. 15^. 6d. which is within Jix- pence per cent, of the interefl on 1 2O/. flock in the. four per cents. In other words, by borrowing this year in the three per cents* rather than in the four per cents, Mr. Pitt has faved 45OO/. per ann. on the whole loan, which is worth about ioo,ooo/. but has created a needlefs capital of more than five millions and a half. I fay needlefs capital, for certainly, if the commiflioners, inflead of confining themfelves to the three per cents, had occafionally purchafed in the four per cents (and which they ought to have done) that ilock would have fo rifen in value as to have enabled the Minifter to have borrowed even upon better terms than I have flated. There cannot be a flronger proof of this than the fudden rife in that flock pro- duced by the commiflioners purchafing in ic for a few days jufl before the opening of the loan. A common obferver might have been led ( '9 ) led to infer from this circumftance, that the Minifter, aware of the bad confequences of borrowing in the three per cents, had re- folved to change his plan, and had taken this courfe in order to facilitate his operations, and render them more advantageous to the public. But the plans and operations of Mi- nifters of ftate do not lie open to common ob- fervers. The loan, as is well known, was made in the three per cents, which being de- prelTed by this fudden and temporary change in the conducl: of the commiffioners, contri- buted, with other circumftances equally curi- ous, though not perhaps fo unaccountable, to render this loan one of the moft diftinguifhed for its extravagance of all the loans that have ever been made in this country.* Thus, then 4 , it is evident that the expencesof the war have not hitherto been rendered lefs enormous by any wifdom or ceconomy in raiting the money to provide for them, . On the contrary, the profufion in borrowing feems to keep pace with the profufion in expending^ and the public debt, which terrified the na- tion by its magnitude when it approached to * See note A, Appendix. D 3 v fifty fifty millions, has in ten months received even an addition which greatly exceeds that fum. If the debts be increafing at this rate, it will naturally be alked, " to what ftupendous **. amount muft the whole mafs of them have " accumulated by this time?" Thisisaquef- tion of the utmoft importance to the intereft and happinefs of the country, and the follow- ing fe&ion will be employed in the folutioa of it-* SECTION SECTION III. On the NATIONAL DEBT. of the Funded Debt on the ijl of January, 1796, "which had been incurred previous / the If ear I 784. Principal. ** 618,437 1 8,000 Intereft & Managern & 80,204 54* 80,202!. Exchequer annuities, of which nine years remain uncxpired, value Annuities for Lives, with benefit of furvivorihip, granted by 5 Geo. III. Life Annuities granted in the years 1745, 1746, 1757, and 17821, which, in 1783, were 64,574!. but now fuppofed to be 52,000!. valued at eight years purchafe "88,029!. Long Annuities for 64 years Stock in the 4 fer cent. Confolidated B; 408,880!. Short Annuities for 12 years Stock in the 5 fer cent. Bank Annuities Bank Stock ,Reduced Bank Annuities Confolidated Bank Annuities Annuities borrowed in 1726 South Sea Annuities Ditto boirowcd in 17^ Whole amount of the capital and intereft of the 3 fer cents . 187,611,254 5,7*4,434 416,000 52,000 ears ^14,323,000 688,029 d Bank Ann. 52,750,000 ',3*4,737 :ars 3,895,800 408,880 lities 17,869,994 9Qii54: 11,686,800 41,540,074 107,399,696 1,000,000 24,065,024 1,919,600 Total 257,502,485 * Thefe and the Short Annuities are computed at the fame rote of intcreft as the 3 fer cents, produce when they are at 64, which was the intereft al- lowed by the ChanceUor of the Exchequer on his laft loan. to the Funded Debt finee ike Year 1788. Borrowed on a tontine in 1789 l4,ooil.Sh.Ann.fori2years,hor.i789 Stock in the 4 ptr cent. Consolidated Bank Annuities, borrowed in 1794 2,750,000 Ditto in ditto borrowed in 17 95 6,ooo,o?o Val.includ. Managtnu 63,350!. Long Annuities borrowed in . 1794 1,314,000 86,255!. ditto borrowed Feb. 1795 1,789,000 58,980!. ditto borrowed Dec. 1795 1,220,500 Stock in the 3 per cent. Confol. Bank Ann. borrowed in 1793 6,250,000 Ditto in ditto borrowed in j 794 1 1,000,000 Ditto in ditto borrowed Feb. 1 795 18,000,000 Ditto in ditto borrowed Dec. 1795 21/00,000 Ditto in the Reduced Bank Ann. borrowed in ditto 4,500,000 Nary Bills converted into 5 ftr tent. Bank. Ann. in 1794 I >94933O Ditto ditto in 1795 2,012,040 principal. jt>" 1,002,140 Intertft & Managem. *43,ooo- 14,001 ,750,000 353,93* 4>3*3>5 0<9 208^027 61,350,000 j,S6?,ic8 Total 79,520,402 Debt contracted prior to Jan. 1785 (fee p. 21) 257,502,485 'Whole of the funded debt an . irs inter-ft 337,oiZ ; 887 Amount of the unfunded debt and irs intereft at 3 per cent, (fee p. 8.) 16,000,000 353,022,887 2,686,923 Emperor's loan, confif- ting of ftock in the 3 per cents. Annuity of 230,0001. for 25 years, worth 3,371,800 231, 507 J Topjl of the debt and its annual expence, inclu- ding the ftock redeemed hy the comraiffioners for managing the consolidated fund Prime. Int. -\ ,S33,333 116,725 ! ,371,800 i3i>57-' 11,857,286 800,000 12,657,286 360,228,020 13,005,518 * Takjyi at random, but probably much below the truth. With With a debt of between three and four tired millions, and a war ftill raging which threatens to increafe the amount with many millions in addition, is it poffible to contemplate our fituation without alarm ? Or can the cir- cumftance of our enemies being in the gulph of bankruptcy and ruin (even admitting it to be true) fecure us againft the danger arifing from a perpetual accumulation of new debts and taxes ? Our refources, great as they are reprefented to be, muft inevitably fail if this fyftem be continued; and when we are in- volved in the fame ruin with our enemies, it can afford us but little confolation to reflect that they have plunged into the gulph before us. This country has the greaterl reafon to la- ment, or rather to execrate thofe meafures which have fo often interrupted_its peace for the laft century. By the feven years war, which be- gun in 1755 and ended in 1762, the public debts were increafed above feventy-one mil- lions. By the American war, which begun in 1775 and ended in 1783, they were in- creafed above one hundred and twenty mil- lions ; and by the prefent war, which begun only three years ago, but which may not end till till the next century, they have been already increafed above one hundred millions ; fo that the intereft and management of the debt, the money appropriated for the finking fund, together with the civil lift and other expences of government, even were peace concluded immediately, would require taxes to be raifed annually to the amount of twenty -two millions ! I had obferved on a former occafion,* that the yearly rents of all the landed eflates in the kingdom were not fuppofed to exceed eighteen millions, and therefore that they were not fuffi- cient to pay the ordinary expences of govern- ment. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has lately maintained in the Houfe of Commons that thefe rents amounted to twenty-five mil- lions annually. I am unacquainted with the fource from which he derives his informa- tion, though I am the lefs difpofed to confide in its accuracy from his having chofen at the> fame time to affert, that the perfonal property of the nation exceeded 600 millions, without adducing either proof or argument in fupport * See the Appendix to my Review of Dr. Price'* writings on the Finances of Great Britain, p. 14. I Of of his aflertion ; arid to eftimate this and the landed property together at 1300 millions, without making any allowance for that part of the one which is inverted in mortgage upon the fecurity of the other, and which ought to have been deducted before the value of both kinds of property could have been ftated with tolerable correctnefs. If it be confidered that the land tax at four millings in the pound, though charged not only upon lands and houfes, but alfo upon places and pen/tons (which certainly have not declined of late) produces in general about 1,900,0007. per annum, it is highly probable that the Miniiter's eftimate greatly exceeds the truth ; for two millions would not be more than fufficient to account for a rental of twenty millions annually, on the fuppolition even that this tax were afleffed only in the proportion of ha/fthe fum which is voted by Parliament, and that the growing produce of the place and penfion-lifl were to- tally excluded from the account. Admitting, however, the accuracy of Mr. Pitt's ftate- ments, and we have then the confolatjon to think that the taxes have not yet exceeded the annual produce of all the landed property in the kingdom, but that the war may be conti- E nued (26 ) nued even at its prefent rate of expence,* al- mofl: fjteen months longer before this will be effected. Perhaps the hopes and expeditions of fomt perfons may be flattered with the idea that, though our debts are accumulating fafler than ever, they are alfo difcharged with increafing rapidity, and that the period mufl come when the operations of the finking fund will relieve us from the greater part of the taxes with which we are now loaded. How far thefe hopes arc well founded, and how foon they are likely to be realifed, may poflibly be inferred from the following feftion. * In February laft taxes were laid to the amount of 1,645,000^ and in the following December other taxes were propofed to the amount of i,i23,ooo/. and yet the intereft of many millions of the debt ftill remains to be provided for. SECTION SECTION IV. On tke Progrefs which has hitherto been made in difcharging the Public Debt. IT appears from the ftatement in the forego- ing Section (page 21) that the national debt in 1786, or at the time in which the confoli- dated fund was eftablimed for its redemption, exceeded 257 millions, and that this debt at the prefent time has increafed to the enormous fum of 360 millions.* Out of this latter fum, however, muft be deducted the flock which has been purchafed by the commifiioners in the interval between the two periods above- mentioned, and the remainder will "give the real amount of the national debt at this time, as well as mew the degree in which it has ac- cumulated fatter than it has been difcharged. But as the purchafes (with the exception of a * If the Emperor's loan be excluded from the debt, this fum will be 353 millions. E 2 few few thoufands) have always been made by the commiffioners in the three per cents, it will be neceflary, before an accurate idea can be formed of the amount of the debt in 1786, compared with its prefent amount and with that part of it which has been redeemed, to convert the whole of the debt at thefe two pe- ri o*ds into the three per cents. Amount .2 2 a 3. . j O v ^f S- - r's loan, confiding of ft per cents. *1. annuity, equivalent 4 ||||1U [iftipl ^;*ggii< in m MI *! H n *! ( 30 } With the exception of the tontine and fhort annuities borrowed in 1789 (amounting to-, gether to 1,769,000 three per cents,) thej \vhole of the above difference > exceeding i 1 2 millions, (or including the Emperor's loan, 121 millions,) h;:s been added to the public debtjiince the commencement of the prefent war. By the addition of frefh taxes in confequence of every new loan, and by the annual appro- priation of one million from the confolidated fund, about 17! millions * of the three per cents have been redeemed fince the year 1786; that is, the public debts have accumulated in three years to a fum which is feven times greater than the fum paid offin ten years. Com- pared with the whole amount of the debt at the prefent time, the ftock redeemed is to the whole flock in the proportion of one to twenty-four nearly, and the national debt from this com* parifon will appear to have been leflened in the courfe of ten years about ten-pence in the pound ! At this rate it is obvious that the total difcharge of the pubjic debt muft be a tedious procefs. Suppoiing the war to be now ended, * It (houkl be obferved, that this is only about tijrcc-fourtbs of the nee Jir/s capital which has been already created by the loans for die prefent war. the ( 3' ) the fums appropriated for the finking fund to bo faithfully applied, a itricT: ceconomy to be ob- ferved in all the expences of government, and the peace of the country to remain uninterrupted for the next forty years, the amount of the public debt at the end of that period might, perhaps, be reduced to one hundred and Jiflv millions. But this profped:, dark and com- fortlefs as it is, in our prefent circumllances is much too favourable. The termination of the war feems to be at as great a diflance as when hoftilities firft began. Inftead of ceco- nomy, therefore, an increafed profufion in the public expences is likely to continue, and not only to add to the debt, but to produce an alienation of that fund whofe operations with- out any fuch addition were already much too feeble for any ufcful purpofe. What reafon alfo have we to believe, when the prefent war is concluded, (admitting even that its pre- tended objects are attained in the eftabliihment of focial order, religion, and morality) that this couutry (hall be bleffed with the undif- turbed enjoyment of peace during the long in- terval of forty years ? How much of the lafl forty years, or of thofe that preceded them, has been thus diftinguifhed ? I fear that the experience ( 3* ) experience of thofe years will afford but a melancholy prefage of what is to be expected in future. The Seven Years war the Ame- rican war the Spanifh and Ruffian arma- ments and the prefent war, form the hiftory of the greater part of the laft forty years. During this period almoft every year has been marked with new impofitions either to make up the deficiencies of the preceding, or to provide for the expehces of an approaching war. By this means the fhort intervals of peace have had little or no effect: in leflening the public burthens, and the nation has been invariably plunged into every new war with nearly the whole load of debt which had op- prefled it in the preceding one. If, therefore, we reafon from the experience of former times, we mall not be induced to place more confidence in the Minister's operations for re- deeming the national debt, than if we con- fined our reafoning to the particular experi- ence of his adminiftration. I do not know even whether, confidering all circumftances, it would not have been better that the finking fund had never been eftablifhed. If the debt had increafed as it has done within thefe three years, without any profpect of its being dif- i charged, ( 33 ) - charged, the nation perhaps might have been awakened into a fenfe of its danger, and long before this tiii-e have adopted effectual mea- fures towards checking the growth and pre- venting the pernicious' confequences of this evil; But inftead of this, it has been led to place its whole reliance on an impotent plan, and with the hope that this will operate as powerfully in redeeming, as a war does in in- creafing the public debt, it gives itfelf very little concern about the enormity of the amount to which this debt is accumulating. But thefe are delufions which, if perfifted in, muft ter- minate in ruin. It is, indeed, hardly poilible to conceive of a credulity fo abfurd as that which can fuppofe a country to be in a ftate of always maintaining its credit, though its debts are in- creafing twenty times fafter than they are dif- charged. Such, however, appears to be the cafe with this country at prefent, and it is to be feared that we mall learn wifdom only when it is too late to profit by its inltruclions. SECTION ( 34 ) SECTION V. On the Management of the Sinking Fund, LHE plan which the Chancellor of the Ex- chequer has adopted for redeeming the national debt, is well known to be one of the three plans which at his requeft were communicated to him by Dr. 'Price in the year 1786,* and, though originally the weaker! of the three, has not only been mutilated and enfeebled by his alterations at its firft efuablifhment, but rendered Hill more ineffectual by fubfequent neglect and mifmanagement. . In the original plan, the redemptions after the firft three years were all fuppofed to be made either in, the four or the fve per cents ; and this fup- pofition w r as founded on the principle that money might be improved at a higher intereft in thefe flocks than in the three fer cents, and * See my Review of the Writings of Dr. Price on the Fi- nances of Great Britain, Chap, ii. Of ( 35 ) of confequence that the debt would be dif- charged fafler by confining to them the chief operations of the plan. But excepting at a time when it ought not to have been done (which was jufl before the opening of the laft loan) no purchafe hath ever been made in the/bar per cents. On the contrary, a pre- ference has invariably been given to the three per cents ; by which means, though a larger capital appears to be redeemed, the reduction of the debt is in reality retarded. When \hethree per cents are at 70, and the four per cents at 84, money is improved in the one at 4/. $s. yd. and in the other at 4/. i^j. ^d. per cent. If, therefore, one mil* lion were annually laid out during the term allotted for the finking fund, or 26 years, in purchasing three per cents at 70, and ano- ther million in purchaiing/or/>^r cents at 84, the capital redeemed in the former will b$ 65,918,0007., and in the latter, 58,798,0007. But the real value of the ' one is only 46,142,5007,, and its i-ntereft 1,977,5407., while the real value of the other is 49,3-90,2007. and its intereft, 2,351,9207. Hence it fol- - lows that, though greater progrefs appears to be. made in difcharging the national debt F 2 by ( 36 ) by purchasing in the three per cents , (which, perhaps, may account for the preference given to this flock) yet that, in facl:, this progrefs will be retarded, and the free revenue at the end of the term be lefs than it would have been if the purchafes had been made in the four per cents, by 374, 3&o/. per annual. But the price of the four per cents has generally exceeded the price of the three per cents in a much lefs proportion than that of 84 to 70 : confequently the preference given to the latter has been injurious to the finking fund in a much higher degree than I have ftated it. In the year 1792 the three per cents were at 96, while \\iz four per cents were only at 102; and yet the Chancellor of the Exchequer per- fifled in the fame courfe, and chofe to improve the public money at little more tnan ^/. per cent, when he might have improved it with equal eafe at 4/. per cent. But by neglecting the opportunity which the peculiar Hate of the funds then offered, the lofs was much greater than what followed from the mere accumula- tion of compound intereft. When the three per cents had riien to 96, they were within 4/. of being at par, and within 6/. of the price of the four per cents, taking the latter at ( 37 ) at 102. It might therefore have been propofed to the holders of ftock in the four per cents, either to pay them at par, (which in this par- ticular cafe might have been worth while to have done by a frefh loan) or to have allowed them for each ioc7. in that Hock, ioo/. in the three per cents, together with an annuity of i/. for feven years. This being worth 67., and added to 967., the valueof ioo/. in the three per cents would have amounted to 1O2/. ; fo that by the propofed exchange, the holders of both flocks would have been placed exactly in the fame fituation. By this means the pub- lic, at the end of feven years, would have entered on the poffeffion of a free revenue of i/. per cent, on 32,750,0007., or of 327, joo/. per annum. The value of this annuity for ever after the expiration of the above term, and reckoning intereft at four per cent, (which is more than could have been made of money in 1792) is 6,222,5007. It is evident, there- fore, that, by a neglect the moil inexcufable, the Minifter has loft to the public in this {In- gle inftance above Jtx millions. Let this be added to the prefent value of the deficiency in the free revenue after 26 years, in confe- quence of r^urchaflng always in the three per cents 9 ( 3S ) tfttts y rather than in the four per cents, and the amount of the whole lofs will exceed (en mil- lions / Such are the Minifter's operations of finance in regard to the finking fund, or rather in dlf- charging the public debt. What they are in accumulating this debt has already appeared in the foregoing fections. In both cafes they are without a parallel ; but the operations in the former are conducted on a fcale fo much more contracted than thofe in the latter, that I am apprehenfive of appearing to trifle with the reader by dwelling fo long upon them. SECTION C 39 ) SECTION VL Mlfcellaneous Obfervatiens* r ROM the firft eftablifhment of the confo- lidated fund in 1786, the expenditure has in- variably exceeded the revenue ; but more par- ticularly fince the commencement of the pre- fent war. The deficiencies in the fix years preceding the war amounted to feven mil- lions nearly, which were fupplied by loans and extraordinary receipts.* In the laft three years, though additional taxes have been laid to the amount of four millions, thefe de- ficiencies have conftantly increafed, fo as in the prefent year to fall very little fhort of two millions. -f It is probable, therefore, that an- nual loans will become necefTary in future to provide for the ordinary expences of a peace * See my Review of Dr. Price's Writings on the Finances of Great Britain, Chap. iii. f See note B, Appendix, cfta- ( 40 ) a eftabliiTiment j and thefe loans, by requiring new taxes, will produce further deficiencies, fo that by borrowing each year, not only to pay the deficiencies of the preceding year, but alfo the interefl on the deficiencies in former years, the national debt will be increasing at compound interefl: in the fame manner as it is reduced, but with this alarming difference, that the operations in the one cafe are ten times more powerful than in the other. If thefe are likely to be the effects of the public debt with the expenditure only of a peace eltablimment, or on the fuppofition that the war were immediately clofed, what mud be the confequences of obftinately perfiiling in a fyflem of profufion, which, if long con- tinued, would ruin any country, however un- impaired its flrength and refources ? That the deficiency in the revenue proceeds chiefly from the diftreffed and overburthened ftate of the nation is felf-evident : but it mull alfo be acknowledged, that it proceeds in fome degree from the nature of the taxes which have lately been impofed. Thefe, in order to ren- der the war lefs obnoxious, have been laid in fuch a manner as to caufe the lead immediate preffure on the poorer part of the people. Now, 2 as ( ft ) as this clafs conftitutes the great bulk of the nation (and if the prefent war continues, is likely to conftitute a much greater) it is obvi- ous that a tax which is not immediately paid by them can never be efficient. Such taxes as thofe for licences to wear hair-powder, to kill game, &c. may do to fill up the column of ways and means in a Minifter's budget, but their produce, compared with the ferious mag- nitude of the public exigencies, muft always be trifling and contemptible* Our difficulties are great, and are daily becoming greater* The only way to furmount them is, by meet- ing them fairly, and by being made fenfible, by the Itrong meafures which they really re- quire, of the danger with which they threaten us. Inftead of this manly conduct, the hopes of the nation are buoyed up by delufive repre- fentations of its wealth and profperity.* The public . * There cannot be a more convincing proof of this than the exaggerated computations of the Chancellor of the Exchequer in regard to the probable future amount of the revenue, when he opens his yearly, or rather his half yearly budget to the Houfe of Commons. The grounds upon which fome of thofe computations are founded, are very curious. Thus, in Fe- bruary laft, although the produce of the permanent taxes had gradually diminiftied for- the three preceding years, he take* G the ( 42 ) public are taught to believe that a tax upon the moft infignificant articles will prove to be an important branch of the revenue. Hence a mul- titude of thefe taxes are levied, a multitude of new officers become neceffary to collect them ; thus influence increafes and the revenue fails, and the deficiencies being blended with the fupplies of die next year, are not only over- looked, but by increafing the amount of thofc fupplies, are perverted even into a proof of the fiourifhing ftate of the country : for the cir- cumftance of being abk to raife a large loan has conftantly been adduced as an argument in favour of the greater ability of the nation to the mean of thofe taxes for four years as the probable amount of their produce in the following year; and in December laft, notwithftanding the experience of the former half year had proved his fuppofitions to be wrong, and that the revenue was ftill diminishing, he again takes the mean of the three foregoing years as the probable amount of the taxes m the enfuing year. It is hardly neceflary to obferve, that the plain way would hav been, to have deducted the average of their deficiencies in the three preceding years from their amount in the laft year,, and taken the remainder as the probable amount of Uieir produce in the next year. But this method of computation, by lefiening; the prefent revenue, would have rendered it neceflary to have iiicreafed the number of new faxes ; and therefore another fpe- -cies of arithmetic was adopted, lefs accurate, indeed, in it* principle, but much better fuited to the purpofes of a minifter wf Hate, i bear ( 43 ) bear it. The competition of rapacious loan- mongers to fhare in the fpoils of the country, fupported by the fictitious credit of paper mo- ney, may perhaps enable the Minifter to tri- umph in the facility with which the public debts are accumulated, and the temporifing expedient of ineffectual taxation may ferve him as a proof of our inexhaustible refources to provide for thofe taxes. But a fyftem founded upon delufion mufl end in difappoint- ment and ruin. It was the boaft of a French minifter of finance, that the American war was carried on during his adminiflration without impofing a new tax upon the French people, and it was this very circumftance which produced the revolution. He borrowed immenfe fums annually, and endeavoured to provide for them by the ineffectual means of ceconomy j for in that country taxation had then arrived at its limits.* A fyftem of ceconomy under * The taxes, exclufive of the expences of collection, amounted to 24,375,ooo/. and the number of inhabitants ex- ceeded 27 millions. In Great Britain the taxes, iuppofingthe war now terminated, ought to produce 22 millions at lead, although the number of inhabitants, on the moft extravagant calculation, does not amount to eight millions. Compared therefore with the inhabitants in each country, the taxes in Great Britain are G 2 three ( 44 ) under a government -which exiftedby corrup- tion neceffarily failed. New loans became neceflary to pay the intereft of former loans. The mafs of debt continued to accumulate, till at length it overwhelmed public credit and buried the government in its ruins. With fuch an awful warning before us, ought we not topaufe? Our refources are not incxhauf- tible, nor is our credit unbounded. During the laft 40 years, the national debt has been increafed almoil: 300 millions, and at this very moment it is increafing fatter than ever. \Vith two loans in one year, amounting to 36 mil* lions flerling ; with a loan alfo in the fame ^year to our ally, the Emperor, of 4,6oQ,oooA and with an addition to the navy debt of one million and a half j the whole fupplies for the next campaign ftill remain unprovided ! The extravagance of Lord Chatham's adminiftra-? tion, in the feven years war, was long the fubject of animadverfion, till it was fucceeded three times greater than they were in France when their refources totally failed. How far we may be able ftill further to increafe the proportion before we arrive at the fame ftate, may perhaps be inferred from the produce of the revenue during the laft three years, as well as from the difficulty of finding proper objects of taxation, for the prefent year, ( 45 ) by the greater extravagance of Lord North's adminiftration in the American war. The enor- mity of public profurion was now fuppofed to have attained its highefl point, and pro- voked, one of the heft patriots which this or any. other country ever produced, to exprefs his fentiments of it in the following words: " J have in this edition inferted a brief " hiftory of the finking fund, and alfo a " particular account of the increafe of the " public debts from 1776 to 1783, and of " the ftate of our finances at the time of fign- " ing the preliminaries of peace. This ac- " count is, I believe, as correct as it is pof- * ' {ible at prefent to make it j and I have " chofen for many reafons that it fhould " form a part of this work. Hereafter, " probably, it will be read with amaze- *' ment. Our folly, in this inftance, is " without example. Lord North enjoys the " fingular diftinclion of having contributed " more to it than any former m milter. By a " war which has degraded the kingdom, and *' a difiipation of treafure which was never " equalled, he has, fn the fhort compafs of " feven years, doubled a debt before too ** heavy to be endured; and let future ge- " negations ( 46 ) '< nerations rife up, and if poflible, let them " call himble/ed."* Had Dr. Price lived to have witneffed the profuflon of the laft three years, he would have retracted, or at leaft he would have moderated a part of this cen- fure ; for Lord North no longer enjoys the difHnction of being the moft extravagant mi- nifter that has ever affliled this country. * Dr. Price's Preface to the 4th edition of his Treatife oa Reverfionary Payments. APPENDIX. ( 47 ) APPENDIX. NOTE A. (Page 19.) THE minifter, in communicating the late loan to the Houfe of Commons, congratulated them on his being able, in the fourth year of a war, to borrow money at fo low an interest as 4/. 13*. &/. or rather 4!. i$s. 6d. percent. If every addition to the debt is to be confidered as a perpetual burthen upon the public, this triumph perhaps may have been well founded. But if, on the contrary, according to his own profefled principles, regard is to be had in the terms of every new loan, to the difcharge ot the debt as weil astolhd payment of the intereft, a little attention will con- vince us that the plan he has adopted of borrowing in the three per cents, although it has the fpecious appearance of Teflening the in-* tereft, does, in facl:, by creating a needlefs capital, increafe it very confiderably. In the laftloan, the creation of 145*. ftock for every lool. received, rendered it neceflary, in addition to the intereft of 4/. 155. 6d. percent, to appropriate i/. 9*. per ann. for the redemp- tion of this ftock. The whole intereft, therefore, on each tool, of this loan amounted to 61. 4*. 6d. Suppofing on the return of peace that the three per cents will continue on an average at So per cent, (which is 16 per cent lefs than they Avere before the com- mencement of the prefent war) then will the abovementioned an- nual fum of i/. 9J. redeem at that price a capital of 14.5,1. in thirty- feven years and a half; but if the ftock is higher, it will ofcoudc be a proportionably longer time before this is effected. Now ha for as mo/t of the articles confirmed in war are charged with heavy duties to government, it is obvious that the greater the profufion of the public money, the greater mud be the produce of tiie public re* Tenue. In the prelent \\ar, which exceeds all that ever preceded it in the enormity of its expence, the revenue vnuft of courfc be increafed in a higher degree than in any other war, and confe- quently whenever it tenni".atesj the deficiency mult be fo much the more alarming. During the American war, the extraordinary annual expenditure amounted, on an average, to abcut fixteen millions; in the prelent war it amounts, on the mod moderate computation, to twenty-five millions. On the termination of the one, the revenue became deficient oncmilliyn and a quarter, in the produce of the old taxes; and I think it may be fairly expected that on the termination of the other, the whole deficiency will fall very little fhort 6f two millions; for the expences are not only greater, but the taxes have been.fo much increafed fmcethe Ame- rican war, that were the expences equal in both, it is probable that the effect produced on the revenue, in this fingle circum- ftance, would be very nearly in the proportion abovementioned. It might alfo be obferved, that every additional tax is a frefh en- couragement to fm'iggling, and therefore that it is to be appre- hended that the public revenue will be injured by thofe illicit prac- tices in a much higher degree than ever. But I feel no pieafure in anticipating evil ; i am only forry that there is not virtue enougJs to prevent it. FINIS, i S $ < = 25 I i 1 .8 i S s i I ~ i 1 1 ? --i o >- 2 5 1 1 & S > < ^ ^< S V*'/ M 2 t** J& vvtOS-ANCElf, .^ I 1 5^r ^ ~&^~s ' ^^-^ *^ ^^ ^-^4 ^MiNna^v* ^ojnvj-jo^ ^ojnv3-jo>"