THE WRITIN< ON THE WAL THE- NATION ON TRIAL TSHER W THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES GIFT OF Gift U.C. LiUary THE WRITING ON THE WALL Underwood and Underwood THE COLORS THE WRITING ON THE WALL THE NATION ON TRIAL BY ERIC FISHER WOOD Author of "The Note Book of an Attache'" ILLUSTRATED WITH PHOTOGRAPHS AND MAPS NEW YORK THE CENTURY CO. 1916 Copyright, 1915, 1916, by THE CENTUHT Co. Published, January, 1916 PUBLISHER'S NOTE Mr. Wood is the author of "The Note-Book of an Attache." He served under Mr. Herrick at the Amer- ican Embassy in Paris during the first months of the war. He witnessed the mobilization of the armies of the French republic, and saw these armies in action along the Marne and the Aisne and be- fore Calais. Later he traveled as a bearer of des- patches through England, Holland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Hungary. He has observed the French, British, Belgian and German troops in action, and in addition has seen the armies of Austria, Switzerland, Hungary and Holland on a war foot- ing. He has made a very thorough first hand study of the Swiss system of Na- 557469 PUBLISHER'S NOTE tional defense, both in peace time and upon a war footing. His military knowledge is such that he has not only made detailed reports to the army war college in Washington, but has by request delivered lectures on his observations and conclusions to the general staff at Governor's Island and to the officers and cadets at West Point. In "The Writing on the Wall" he acts as unofficial spokesman for our pro- fessional military authorities, who have much of vital importance to tell us about Military Preparedness but are prevented from speaking for themselves by a political censorship more rigorous than the military one now maintained in Europe. Mr. Wood, though reluctant to incur the enmity of the present administra- tion, has felt impelled to write as fully and justly as he has in order to follow what he considers his line of duty towards his country. INTRODUCTION I commit myself to the verdict that no civilian is competent to give de- cisions in military matters. It there- fore becomes necessary to explain why I, a civilian, am hereby delivering my- self of pronounced opinions on these same military subjects. In giving reasons for the immediate and pressing need of preparedness to defeat any attack upon our country, I stand on my own recent experiences in Europe, and need no outside prompt- ing. In my mind are scenes terrible scenes which constantly pass across my mental vision crying out their warn- ings for America. When, however, we come to a discus- vi INTRODUCTION sion of the means by which such prep- aration can best be accomplished, or by what method we may soonest protect ourselves, I am absolutely depending upon expert military opinion. While in Europe, during the first seven months of the great war, I diligently gathered in every country I visited, from every battle-field I studied, and from every army-officer I interviewed, all data or information which might bear upon the situation and needs of my own country. The conclusions I drew from these ob- servations, and the plans I am outlining, were formulated only after I had sub- mitted the material which I had gath- ered to the judgment of the army and navy authorities of the United States; only now that my opinions and conclu- sions have been modified, revised, and approved by our highest military ex- INTRODUCTION yii perts do I feel justified in presenting them for public consideration. Therefore, in outlining what seems to be the best method of military pro- tection for our own country, I do not violate my own dictum that only mili- tary experts are competent to give ad- vice in purely military matters, since I offer not my own opinion, but the ver- dict of competent army- and navy-of- ficers whom regulations forbid to speak for themselves. None of us realizes our danger more absolutely than these ex- perts ; none would be more willing to in- struct their countrymen ; no others could be better fitted to show us our errors if they were not subjected to a censorship as rigorous as that which now prevails at the battle-front in Europe. Our politicians, in order to protect themselves from the exposure of their yiii INTRODUCTION numerous administrative blunders, which they naturally commit when they attempt to perform duties for which they are utterly unqualified, have muz- zled our officers, and thus the only men who are thoroughly competent to reveal the woeful inefficiencies of our army and navy are forced to keep silence. They are even compelled to bear the dis- credit for blunders for which they are in no way responsible, and from which they would protect us if they were al- lowed freedom of speech. Occasionally their devotion to their country impels them to risk everything and to break through this senseless barrier, thereby injuring the reputations and the polit- ical careers of some of our well-known "statesmen." The fate of Admiral Fiske, who recently, when questioned before a congressional committee, dared INTRODUCTION ix to tell unpleasant truths about the pres- ent lack of organization in our navy, is the latest warning that indiscreet out- bursts of truth and patriotism will promptly result in ruined careers. To muzzle our experts on national safety is almost as ridiculous as it would be to force the Doctors Mayo to keep silent on surgery, or to forbid Edison to speak about electricity. CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES . . 3 II PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHIS- TRIES 27 III PREPARATIONISTS ARE PACI- FISTS 47 IV A WARNING AND AN EXAMPLE . 58 V ARMY REFORM 74 VI THE SWISS SYSTEM . . . . .86 VII EDUCATIONAL IMPORTANCE OF MILITARY TRAINING .... 97 VIII TEMPORARY EXPEDIENTS . . .105 IX THE ESSENTIAL BASIS OF ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS .... 112 X ESSENTIAL SUPPLEMENTARY RE- FORMS 123 XI THE NATION ON TRIAL .... 133 CONCLUSION 148 APPENDIX PUBLIC OPINION ON PREPARED- NESS . . 153 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS The Colors .... Frontispiece FACING PAGH Comparative Map of Europe and the United States 28 "The Vulnerable Heart of the United States" 32 Congressman Augustus P. Gardner . 40 Congressman Claude Kitchin . . 41 Theodore Roosevelt .... 72 William Jennings Bryan ... 73 Rear Admiral Fiske . . .104 Josephus Daniels . . . . .105 Dr. Lyman Abbott . . . .120 President Emeritus Charles W. Eliot 136 THE WRITING ON THE WALL CHAPTER I REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES NO Americans are alive to-day who saw Washington burned and sacked in 1814, and few still live who dwelt in the Shenandoah Valley in 1864. The Americans of the present genera- tion have passed their lives in quiet pas- tures and beside the still waters. It is difficult for them to picture what war and invasion really involve. They do not clearly distinguish between the war of history and romance and that other 3 THE WRITING ON THE WALL war which is hell. They fail, for in- stance, to comprehend that it is not the soldier boy who suffers most in war time, but the women of an unprepared country who in the day of reckoning have no trained and organized bodies of men to defend them from the poverty and degradation which invariably exist in a conquered land. The real agony of war is endured by the civil population of the defeated and invaded nation; beside that the suffer- ing of the men who die in battle is as nothing. The suffering of the civil population stretches out beyond its own generation to future generations, robbed of their very birthright; it stretches out for twenty-five, fifty, even a hundred years, and is the penalty which a nation pays for being over-con- fident and unwilling to face facts. 4 REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES With the exception of persons like myself whom chance has thrust amidst scenes of war in foreign countries, few living Americans have beheld the hor- rible reality with their own eyes; few have seen, and therefore few have un- derstood. We who have worked in the ruined countries know what invasion means. We have seen the proud cities of yesterday to-day smoldering in ashes. We have seen nations of happy artisans and farmers reduced in a twinkling to a starving mob of dumb creatures whom Fate has robbed of all the fruits of a life of faithful toil. We have seen dear old white-haired men and women wandering cold, hungry, and penniless across a desolated land. We have seen refined women, the elite of a nation, insane with fear, pain, and sor- row. We have seen the counterpart 5 THE WRITING ON THE WALL of every American woman we know, alone, unprotected, and hopeless, with the look of a hunted animal in her eyes. Verily the supreme agony of war is not to be found on the march, in camp, nor upon the field of battle. We who have beheld the present gi- gantic struggle with our own eyes feel and understand how far-reaching it is, and how much more far-reaching it may well become. When we return from Europe and find our countrymen ap- parently asleep to all this, we are ut- terly amazed at their apathy. We be- come possessed by an almost irrepress- ible impulse to shake them until they are thoroughly awake ; we long to open their sleepy eyes to the full significance of such facts as that the casualties of the first year of this war are probably greater than the casualties of all the 6 REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES other wars in the last thousand years; and that while in 1815, at the close of the last world war, the combined total of all the armies of the allies and of Napoleon numbered only 250,000 men, the armies now embattled number more than one hundred times that many. That last world conflict eventually reached across the broad Atlantic to bring America the War of 1812 and the Louisiana Purchase. How soon may the present struggle spread across the now narrowed ocean, and what fate may it bring to America? We who have beheld the very letters of the writing on the wall and have copied them down to bring to our fellow countrymen, are met with reserve. We are called jingoes, the one thing which men who have looked upon the actual face of war can never be. Having seen 7 THE WRITING ON THE WALL the suddenness with which glowering war may burst in upon a tranquil na- tion, we are surprised to find Americans lacking in any stronger sentiments than a conventional disapproval of the viola- tion of Belgium and an equally conven- tional pity for the sufferings of the soldier on the fighting line. We are chiefly impressed by the fact that mod- ern Wars are such complicated affairs that even latent power is valueless if it has not been organized in advance. We know that it is equally useless if it has been wrongly or inefficiently de- veloped. We know that the volunteer system by which armies are organized only after the beginning of hostilities is and always has been a total failure. We feel it to be significant that America's great men have ever opposed it even REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES since the very birth of the nation. Washington inveighed against it; so did Hamilton and Monroe. In 1790, Washington said, "In time of peace prepare for war." Later, in the first year of his Presi- dency, when addressing a joint session of Congress, he cried, "To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." Four years later, in his annual ad- dress, he said: "The United States ought not to indulge a persuasion that, contrary to the order of human events, they will forever keep at a distance those painful appeals to arms with which the history of every other nation abounds. There is a rank due to the United States among nations which will be withheld if not absolutely lost by the reputation of weakness. If we desire 9 THE WRITING ON THE WALL to avoid insult, we must be able to repel it; if we desire to secure peace, one of the most powerful instruments of our rising prosperity, it must be known that we are at all times ready for war" In 1787, Alexander Hamilton stated that "the rights of neutrality will only be respected when they are defended by an adequate power" In 1822 James Monroe said, "The history of the late wars in Europe fur- nished a complete demonstration that no system of conduct, however correct in principle, can protect neutral powers from injury from any party; that a de- fenseless position and distinguished love of peace are the surest invitations to war; and that there is no way to avoid it, otherwise than being always pre- pared and willing, for just cause, to meet it." 10 REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES Adequate military preparedness for the United States does not necessarily imply the possession of an increased standing army, but only of an efficient military system for defense. It may not entail for America a larger ex- penditure than is now devoted to the maintenance of our army. It does, however, require that what is spent shall be efficiently spent ; it implies that our military budget must be laid out by the nation's competent military ex- perts, and not by party politicians. It means that the safety of the nation must no longer be a prey to the vaga- ries and idiosyncrasies of political the- orists and charlatans. The citizens of other great countries do not permit their politicians to juggle and traffic with the national safety. Among the nations of the earth we are 11 THE WRITING ON THE WALL almost the only one which still allows laymen almost entirely to manage the expenditures of the moneys devoted to national defense. In consequence our ineffective standing army now costs us $100,000,000 a year, but can put into the field to protect our land fewer than 50,000 men. The efficient Swiss sys- tem of military preparedness, which is run by trained military experts, costs only $8,000,000 a year in peace time, and yet can promptly put into the field a compact army of more than 400,000 trained soldiers. This comparison shows that it costs the United States one hundred times more per year for each man available to repel invasion than it does Switzerland. My various observations and experi- ences in the war zone have led me to a conclusion that is concurred in by each REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES and every American who has had op- portunity to study the appalling con- ditions now prevailing in Europe, which is that the only rational insurance against unprovoked attack is adequate military preparedness. Among the most ardent of its advocates whom I have interviewed since the war's begin- ning are Americans who had journeyed to Switzerland as delegates to an inter- national peace conference, and were there caught by the sudden outbreak of hostilities. They could not fail to per- ceive that adequate military prepared- ness, and that alone, had saved Switzer- land from war. They still demand peace, but they now demand it at the price of preparedness. There are very strong arguments against our possessing a large standing army, but there is no valid argument 13 THE WRITING ON THE WALL against adequate military prepared- ness. In this country those who do not demand better preparation for na- tional defense have either not had sufficient opportunity to study the mat- ter, or they suffer from a mental blind spot a blind spot like that which renders the habitual criminal incapa- ble of seeing that crime does not pay. The nations of the earth have entered upon a political era of cold-blooded ag- gression wherein burglary and violation are ordinary proceedings and wherein the individual nations are acting with brutal selfishness. Each works solely for its own interest, and without the least consideration for the interests of others. Germany's violation of Belgium is, alas! only typical of this era. It has REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES become notorious in the eyes of Amer- ica because Germany happens to be the nation which gave the first and most spectacular demonstration of the mod- ern political immorality. In the more recent months of the war neither Great Britain nor Russia has shown any re- spect for neutrality. They violated it just as Germany violated that of Bel- gium. One of the chief differences between Germany's violation of Bel- gium and the Allies' more recent vio- lation of Greece is that Greece valued existence more highly than honor. It has many times been shown that any great nation will unhesitatingly violate the neutrality of a country which is unprepared vigorously to de- fend herself. Even the United States did not arbitrate with Colombia over Panama; nor did our forefathers ar- 15 THE WRITING ON THE WALL bitrate with the American Indians, driven step by step from the land they loved and in which they had lived for a thousand years ; nor did the Southern States arbitrate with the unprepared Union. No world power of to-day would arbitrate any vital matter with Amer- ica, for whatever an enemy coveted she could take from us by force as easily as an efficient thug lifts a wallet from a fat millionaire, unworthy heir of virile grandsires. Never will Great Britain, Russia, Germany, or Japan ar- bitrate a vital dispute with America if they have power to dispense with arbi- tration and smash us to our knees with a, sudden blow. To expect arbitration without pre- paredness is ridiculous; it is indeed a contradiction of terms. How much 16 REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES would it avail a sheep to propose arbi- tration to his butcher! A sacred agreement resulting from solemn arbitration is certainly of far greater value than any mere prospect of arbitration, for it is the realization of the most sanguine hopes of the arbi- trators. Yet within this very year past the futility of depending solely upon such agreements has been proved upon the naked bodies of unprepared Bel- gium, Persia, and China. When the war broke out, brave and thrifty Swit- zerland was fully prepared to defend her freedom and her honor, despite the fact that both were already "pro- tected" by the most solemn interna- tional treaties of fair-minded arbitra- tors. Belgium, preoccupied with business affairs and with money-making, trusted 17 THE WRITING ON THE WALL almost entirely to sacred treaties, also the product of calm arbitration. For America the fate of Belgium is as a writing on the wall which plainly pro- claims that the only valid insurance against unprovoked attack is adequate military preparedness. Had Belgium been adequately prepared to resist mili- tary aggression, then and then only would Germany have respected arbi- tration and its sacred treaties, and have invaded France across the Franco- German border. Despite sentimental exaggeration in the Allied press, the Belgian army was so small and ill prepared that it suc- ceeded in retarding the main German advance into France only about four days. Theoretically, the Belgian first line of fewer than 80,000 men could be reinforced by as many more reserves, 18 REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES just as our line in America is theoreti- cally backed by many thousand militia. Actually, Belgium's reserves were so inefficiently organized that few of them ever got into action, and those that did were nearly useless. Treaties between nations are like contracts between persons: an unscru- pulous person will refrain from break- ing a contract only when the penalty attached thereto is greater than the gain. This is so generally recognized that men invariably attach penalty clauses to contracts which they make with one another. The only penalty attached to the vio- lation of the contract for Belgium's neutrality was the insufficient one of British intervention. From Ger- many's point of view the possibility of this intervention did not offset the 19 THE WRITING ON THE WALL manifold advantages to be gained by a surprise attack upon France, which would result in confining the horrors of war to the enemy's territory. Had Belgium been prepared to de- fend her borders this fact, added to the probability of British intervention, would have constituted a prohibitive penalty; for it should be remembered that even a small country may success- fully defend herself from invasion. Serbia for more than a year defiantly held at bay the united power of Aus- tria-Hungary and Germany, and finally succumbed only when she was stabbed in the back by Bulgaria, also a breaker of sacred treaties. Owing to the scientific deadliness of modern weapons it is possible to defend a fron- tier with fewer than 2000 men per mile, if these men have been properly trained 20 REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES and organized. It is, for instance, a well-known fact, in military circles, that Germany has for a year held the west- ern battle-line of nearly six hundred miles with fewer than 900,000 men, al- though opposed by the entire armies of France and Great Britain; and a Ger- man staff officer boasted to me that they could hold it against the world. A small country may defend herself against a big assailant, because her frontiers are short in proportion to her correspondingly small number of men of military age. Belgium's case and its applicability to the United States may be aptly illus- trated by the following example: bur- glars are unscrupulous persons who consider that the prospective gain inci- dental to robbing houses is greater than the penalty attached to the breaking of THE WRITING ON THE WALL their implied contract with society, the penalty being the danger of arrest and prosecution by the police. My own family residence is situated in a New York City block which has of late years been a favorite raiding-ground for sum- mer burglars, who have made a prac- tice of breaking into and pillaging houses left unoccupied during the hot months. My father, concluding from this circumstance that the New York police did not constitute a sufficient penalty clause, prudently decided to be prepared, and so every summer he has had the house wired by a protective as- sociation. The association's sign in the front window furnished a threat, which taken in conjunction with the danger of arrest by the regular police force, protected the house from attack for sev- eral summers, during which many REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES neighboring unprepared houses were looted. In the summer of 1915 the elec- tricians who wired the house tempo- rarily neglected to place their warning sign in the window, thus removing the visibility of the threat. A few nights later, a burglar mounted the front stoop, "jimmied" the outer door, and, entering the vestibule, be- gan the destruction of the lock of the inner door. The instant, however, that he had at- tacked the outer door, an alarm had been rung at the central office of the protective association, and two private detectives had departed on the run. While on their rapid way to the house they were joined by the corner police- man. The three together greatly out- numbered the thug, whom they over- THE WRITING ON THE WALL powered on the very threshold and frontier of the house, which he had not yet succeeded in entering. As he was led away to prison he protested vehe- mently that it was unfair to wire a house without posting it with warning notices. To apply this illustration to Bel- gium, the British army may be repre- sented by the corner policeman and the two detectives may represent the rea- sonable military preparedness for lack of which her house was broken into. It is inconceivable that Germany could ever have been ignorant of the exact state of Belgium's preparedness; but could such have been the case, Ger- many, repelled from the Belgian fron- tier, would doubtless have been as in- dignant as the burglar who was being led to prison. REALITIES VERSUS FANCIES In America we are at present in a worse state than was Belgium in Au- gust, 1914, for we have not, as she had, treaties against invasion guaranteed by other nations which would represent in a sort the corner policeman. It is probable that within the next thousand years there will be evolved some system of international police ca- pable of furnishing a sufficient penalty to insure the observance of treaties. I no more think of gainsaying this than of denying that within the same time the New York police may perhaps con- stitute a penalty clause capable of deterring robbers. No system of in- ternational police can however be ef- fective until each separate nation is prepared to do its share towards main- taining universal peace, backing its promises by power to enforce them. In the meantime, both our country and our houses are in need of reasonable defensive preparation. America, however, still persistently refuses to read the writing on the wall. To the countries engaged in the great European struggle, America seems wilfully to have closed her eyes to the extent and dangers of the present crisis. CHAPTER II PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES TO-DAY the United States is the single peaceful-minded great na- tion of the earth; she stands unpro- tected amid a gang of calculating in- ternational robbers. Although no such thing as a police force of nations yet exists, she nevertheless refuses to arm herself, because, as she naively de- clares, she has no desire to attack any of the burglars. She lives, as it were, in a time of pes- tilence, when all her neighbors have al- ready been smitten with disease, and yet she fatuously claims that it will be time enough to begin to train physicians 27 THE WRITING ON THE WALL when the black death grips her own vi- tals. She stands in the midst of the great- est conflagration of history, which sur- rounds and already scorches her, and yet idiotically maintains that it will be time enough to organize fire depart- ments when her own house catches fire. Her people know little and care less about the complications of international diplomacy, and remain serenely con- fident that the question of war or no war will ever rest in their own hands. And yet within the last two decades every important nation in the world has been involved at least once in a war "to the finish," and Russia, Turkey, Japan, and Great Britain have partici- pated not merely in one such war, but in two. Despite this, America's lead- ing politicians still stick their pudgy 28 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES hands into the breasts of their frock coats and loudly orate that for Amer- ica war is obsolete. Our Government allows more than eighteen months of world war to pass without taking or even seriously considering a single es- sential step toward an adequate system of national defense. There is no valid argument against adequate military preparedness. The anti-preparationists try hope- lessly to defend their theories, but though eternally routed from position after position, they ever refuse to sur- render to reason. As a rule they begin their argument by maintaining that ar- bitration is the never-failing panacea. When driven from that untenable THE WRITING ON THE WALL ground, they retreat, crying that our "mighty" navy could easily prevent any hostile army from landing on our shores. When a score of adverse facts are pointed out to them, such as that we are constructing torpedoes at a rate that would allow each tube in our navy to fire only one torpedo every six months, and that Great Britain can more than reproduce the effective ships of our fleet once every year, they promptly retreat to their next position ; they maintain that our country is too big to be conquered, neglecting the patent fact that our very immensity makes us the more vulnerable to attacks and raids. It is probable that few of us realize how large our country really is. How many know that California is more than three times as big as England, or 30 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES that Wyoming and Colorado are to- gether as large as the German Empire? How many realize that the United States is nearly as large as the entire continent of Europe, as the accom- panying map will show? Consider what Germany might have accomplished with her unexpected of- fensive of 1914, if instead of the nar- row boundaries of France, Belgium, and Switzerland to choose from she had had the entire contour of Europe, or of America, from which to select a point of attack. Let us, however, meet the anti-prep- arationists upon their own ground. They point with pride to the immensity of the United States and remark cheer- fully that mere size would prevent its subjection. I used to argue in that way myself until February, 1915. 31 THE WRITING ON THE WALL Then while in Berlin I tried it in dis- cussion with a staff officer of the Ger- man army. After a moment's hesita- tion, he said in his slow, accented Eng- lish: "It is true that your country is very large; but its heart is very small and very vulnerable, and you must remem- ber, my friend, that in nations, as in individuals, the body falls if the heart is struck. Let us get a map; I will show you." An atlas was brought, and he pointed out to me the vulnerable breast of my country. He, a foreigner, in- structed me in the political geography of my own native land. He drew a line from the north of Chesapeake Bay up the Potomac to its upper reaches and from there along the foot of the AUeghanies, through Gettysburg, to Probible limit of Invulon **44 + + -4- CaplUU of >ute> * THE VULNERABLE HEART OF THE UNITED STATES PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES Harrisburg on the Susquehanna, and along that river to a point near Scran- ton. From there he skirted the foot of the Catskills through Sullivan County to Kingston, and thence passed rapidly along that river and Lake George and Lake Champlain to Canada. This marks out the first great con- tinuous natural line of defense which exists in the eastern part of the United States. It is six hundred miles in length, being about as long as the bat- tle-line now drawn across France from the North Sea to the Alps. But the present battle-front in western Europe lies entirely across featureless country except for the short stretch along the "river" Aisne, a stream which any self- respecting American farmer would call a "crick." It has therefore been neces- sary to construct trenches that amount 33 THE WRITING ON THE WALL to almost siege fortifications along every foot of its length. By contrast the dead-line across the Northeastern States comprises only two hundred and fifteen miles of land, while the remain- ing three hundred and eighty-five miles follow such effective natural barriers as the Potomac, Susquehanna and Hudson rivers, and Lake George and Lake Champlain, none of which can well be classified as creeks. Such a line, once occupied, could easily be held by 400,000 trained troops against any army in the world. An enemy landing at various points along the coast, could defeat the feeble forces which America could immediately oppose to him, and, having defeated them, immediately ad- vance to this dead-line. There once established, can it be doubted that he could hold it against that mythical one 84 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES million men who Mr. Bryan declares would spring to arms between sunrise and sunset? The best result that un- prepared America could hope to achieve would be a guerilla warfare in the fast- nesses of the Alleghanies, the Catskills, and the Adirondacks, which might bring disaster to the enemy's daring cavalry raids against Buffalo, Pitts- burgh, and intermediate points. The territory of the United States lying to the east of this dead-line is about one half of the area which Ger- many now holds in Russia. It com- prises only about 100,000 square miles, or less than half the total area of France. It is only three per cent, of the whole United States. It is not nearly as large as the single State of Montana. With the enemy holding this dead-line, the country east of it 35 THE WRITING ON THE WALL would become a second Belgium, wherein the slightest resistance or in- subordination on the part of individual men would result in the visitation of dire reprisals upon entire communities. Although this eastern region is in area only three per cent, of the United States, it is verily the heart of our coun- try, for it contains nearly all the fac- tories which might be converted into munition producers, the principal navy yards, and the war colleges; the head- quarters of our general staffs ; the capi- tals of the States of Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachu- setts, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania; the executive centers of all our great industries ; New York, the richest city in the world; Washington, the capital of our country, containing 36 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES all the machinery of national govern- ment; half the wealth of the country; and twenty-five million people. If this heart of America should be seized by an invader, the plight of the nation as a whole would be desperate. The paralyzation of its industries and its Government would be beyond the wildest imaginings of the most sen- sational alarmist. Within a week the country would revert to the conditions of its pioneer days, when every man was fully and completely occupied in the struggle to provide life-sustaining food for his family and himself. The fugi- tive President would be the only re- maining vestige of government; from his refuge in St. Louis or thereabouts he would be forced to make peace on any terms and at any price, just as the Government of France, when in 1871 37 THE WRITING ON THE WALL it replaced the deposed and dishonored Napoleon III, was compelled to buy peace on the enemy's own terms in or- der to free Paris and northern France from the German armies that had caught her off-guard and unprepared. Our country could be forced to pay an indemnity large enough to refill the greatest war-chest or to finance two or three European wars. In addition, it would be plundered of Alaska's lumber and gold, of Mexico's minerals, and of Panama, Hawaii and Cuba, the politi- cal and commercial keys of the Western Hemisphere. Verily the grinning thug would have made a rich and rapid haul from the fat, defenseless heir of virile fighting grandparents. His victim would have had no time for argument. 38 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES A speedy peace would be necessary not merely to redeem a hundred cities and a hundred billion dollars' worth of property, but in order to liberate 25,- 000,000 hostages, cut off by the invad- ing army from their accustomed food supply. The inhabitants of the second Belgium would have had no time to es- cape in the terrible disorder and con- gestion which always accompany inva- sion, a confusion which would be in- creased through the destruction of crucial bridges and tunnels by the enemy's spies and raiders. When in the autumn of 1914 the Teutons ap- proached Paris, all the common car- riers running out of the city became so disorganized that the only means of es- cape left to the masses was to travel on foot. The plan of invasion which I have here outlined was included in an THE WRITING ON THE WALL article which appeared in the Century Magazine for November. It imme- diately evoked ridicule from various anti-preparationists, and the Hon. A. P. Gardner, Representative from Massachusetts, wrote to Admiral Dewey the sole American officer who is in position to make public statements as to the nation's military and naval needs asking him for an expression of opinion upon my statements. Admiral Dewey's reply, read by Mr. Gardner in his speech to the House of Representatives on December 16, was in part as follows : "Dear Mr. Gardner: "I beg to acknowledge the receipt of your letter of December 9 asking me to write you, setting forth my views on the question of the possibility of large hostile forces landing on our coast and 40 Brown B CONGRESSMAN AUGUSTUS P. GARDNER Leader of the cause of Preparedness in the House of Representatives Photograph bj Clinedmat, Washington CONGRESSMAN CLAUDE KITCHIN Leader of the Opposition to Preparedness in the House of Representatives PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES inviting my attention to an article by Eric Fisher Wood. "The part of the Atlantic coast men- tioned in Mr. Wood's article extends from Eastport, Me., to Cape Henry, Va. ... It is true that a large hostile force can land on the open coast wher- ever transports can get within a reason- able distance of the shore, especially so where their landing is covered by the gun-fire of the naval escort even though the landing be opposed by troops. . . . From Eastport, Me., to Cape Henry, Va., there are but very few places where large ships cannot approach to within two miles of the coast. . . . "They would prefer to land where there are no railroads, and good roads leading to their objective, which would probably be one of our large cities. Such places are numerous along the coast of Massachusetts, both shores of Massachusetts Bay, the eastern and southern shores of Long Island, and 41 THE WRITING ON THE WALL in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays. . . . "Our main defense and protection from invasion must always rest with the navy, which must ever remain our first and best line of defense. This defense unless adequate is impotent; and as before stated adequacy is not reached until the navy is strong enough to meet on equal terms the navy of the strongest possible adversary. "Sincerely yours, "GEORGE DEWEY." Driven from their contention that America is too big to be conquered, the anti-preparationists, disregarding the fact that preparedness is not a tem- porary issue, maintain that when the present war is over, the nations of Eu- rope will be exhausted and therefore of necessity harmless. But this is not true. The precedents of history prove 42 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES the exact reverse to be the case. Na- tions are never so strong morally and politically and their armies are never so effective, as immediately following a long conflict. "Practice makes perfect." Greece was never stronger than after Plataea and Salamis, nor Rome than after the Second Carthaginian War. The Netherlands were politically most pow- erful at the termination of forty years of combat with Spain, during which they were on the receiving end of nearly every blow. In 1862 France dared to disregard the Monroe Doctrine and invade Mexico to protect her citizens from per- secution by the irresponsible savages who inhabited that territory. In 1865 she meekly agreed to abandon Mexico and Maximilian, for even Napoleon III 43 THE WRITING ON THE WALL had no wish to try conclusions with the veteran army that marched down Penn- sylvania Avenue on May 23, 1865. A nation may begin a war with five million soldiers, and a year later may have lost one million of them, but half of the survivors could probably defeat an unseasoned army of five millions. It is true that at the end of a long war a nation's credit is poor, but this is not vital. It means that large prices must be paid for loans. It does not mean that loans cannot be obtained. If a nation has in prospect a profitable victory it can obtain large loans. Driven from this last position, anti- prep arationists announce that they would not defend even their ideals and their conception of right by force of arms. They advocate immediate and complete surrender in case of attack 44 PRECEDENTS VERSUS SOPHISTRIES a well-intentioned perversion of the turn-the-other-cheek principle. This willingness to be a part of a nation's martyrdom, while it may indicate a kind of passive courage, is largely born of lack of imagination, an utter inabil- ity to picture the fruits of such a pol- icy. If it were typical of the esprit of the nation as a whole; if it were not con-- trary to the laws of our domestic life, to the workings of our National Gov- ernment and to our historic traditions, such a policy would be infinitely pref- erable to our present one of combining an aggressive diplomatic tone with utter physical helplessness. It might be possible to buy off each successive antagonist by handing over to him whatever he happened to covet, just as one child is thrown from a flee- 45 THE WRITING ON THE WALL ing Russian troika to delay the pursu- ing wolves, and save the others. But our nation is neither meek nor soft-spoken. Its citizens are proud, impatient of restraint and discipline, and quick to resent an injury. They could not be made to tolerate out- side interference, much less an invasion. They would not hesitate to attack with their bare hands any invaders even though these enemies were incased in armor, and bore gleaming swords in their mailed fists. CHAPTER III PREPARATIONISTS ABE PACIFISTS THE people of the United States are not divided into pacifists and jingoes. All Americans desire peace, and differ only as to the best means of securing it, or disagree as to the meas- ure of honor or dishonor with which we may buy that peace. It is most natu- rally that we should all earnestly desire peace since we have everything to gain by peace and much to lose by war. Both the preparationist and the anti- preparationist are pacifists. The lat- ter is an idealist, who making the wish father to the thought, believes only that which it is pleasant to believe. The 47 THE WRITING ON THE WALL former tries to search out the unvar- nished truth and having found it deter- mines to face it bravely, whether it be pleasant or unpleasant. He does not try to persuade himself that helpless- ness is any protection from invasion. America has always been a peace-lov- ing nation. In none of the wars of her history has she been the aggressor. At Concord that first shot which was "heard round the world" was not fired by the colonists. In 1846 it needed a horror like the massacre of the Alamo before our Government would face the necessity of dealing rigorously with Mexico. In 1861 the majority of the people in the North were still declaring that the South would never under any circumstances resort to arms when the cannon at Fort Sumter cut short their foolish predictions. 48 PREPARATIONISTS ARE PACIFISTS We have ever in the past had war forced upon us, and have ever been un- prepared to meet it. We shall most certainly have wars forced upon us in the future. Shall we continue to be unprepared to meet them? Due to fortunate combinations of circumstances we have not, in four of the five wars of our history, reaped the full penalty of our unpreparedness. We emerged victorious from the Revolution and the War of 1812 be- cause Spain and France waged war against England at the same time and gave us vital aid, choosing those crucial moments to be avenged for old quarrels with England. We won the wars of 1848 and 1898 only because we were pitted against weak nations. Our one terrible lesson, the only les- 49 THE WRITING ON THE WALL son the penalties of which were com- mensurate with our neglect, was the Civil War. In 1860 our need, as demonstrated by contemporaneous ex- ponents of preparedness, was for a com- pact standing army of not more than 100,000 men. To any one who studies the history of that epoch it must be evi- dent that had we possessed such an army, the Civil War need never have been fought. Some military authori- ties even go so far as to state that a sin- gle efficient army corp of 30,000 men would absolutely have prevented that war, in which a million men lost their lives. Our troops could have sup- pressed the disorder in the South long before it reached armed conflict, and forced the South to settle its differences with the Government at Washington by arbitration. 50 PREPARATIONISTS ARE PACIFISTS America is so large that she has no need to fight for more territory, as Japan and Germany have fought and will fight; she is so rich that she has no temptation to strive for indemnities; and she is too proud to indulge in quarrels over trifles. May she, how- ever, never be unready to hold her boundaries against an enemy or to pro- tect herself from invasion! May she likewise ever be prepared to defend the ideals for which she stands! A nation without vigorous ideals is a nation unfit, a nation doomed to destruction. Con- quered nations have sometimes regained their freedom, but no nation without ideals to defend, and the will to defend them, has long survived. If after the battle of Concord the majority of our colonial ancestors had been Tories (the pacifist of 1776) and 51 THE WRITING ON THE WALL had voted peace at any price, we should now be taxed without representation, be ruled by a nation which would allow us no general manhood suffrage, and our territory would still be subject to huge land grants which reserved vast areas for nonresident nobility. By ac- cepting the gage of battle, we won lib- erty and established a great nation. We even freed all England's colonies from the tyranny against which we fought, for by that bitter lesson we taught her the wisdom of granting au- tonomy to her daughters; in conse- quence of which the inhabitants of Can- ada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa to-day really enjoy more freedom than the inhabitants of Eng- land herself. As regards human lib- erty, we, by the Revolution, set forward the hands on the clock of time at least a 52 PREPARATIONISTS ARE PACIFISTS century. We even did England her- self a service; for in her present need, when she is struggling to maintain her privileges, opportunities, and ideals, she is supported by a group of strong and loyal colonies because she has long al- lowed them to share with her those privileges, opportunities, and ideals. No price that can be counted in dol- lars, pounds, or francs is too great to pay for peace. No price that will build up an adequate navy and an efficient army is too great. We all desire that America may have as few wars as pos- sible, but we must face that fact that she cannot always avoid wars. Even to-day one may perceive sev- eral causes pregnant with the possibil- ity of future hostilities for the United States. Mexico is one; South Amer- ica, coveted by Germany, but protected 53 THE WRITING ON THE WALL by the Monroe Doctrine, is another; still a third exists in the fact that our western labor unions refuse to allow us to grant equal rights to certain Orien- tals because of racial antagonism and because these Orientals, being more in- dustrious and efficient than the average American day laborer, are willing to work for lower wages. The labor unions, making might their right, have caused laws to be passed, the object of which is to keep their State for their own use by rendering it virtually im- possible for the Orientals to compete with them industrially. The might upon which this right is founded cannot go forever unchallenged. Sooner or later, in ten years or in ten decades, it may have to be tested by a trial of arms. If the case between the California labor unions and the Oriental immigrants 54 PREPARATIONISTS ARE PACIFISTS were to be submitted to fair and impar- tial international arbitration, it is prob- able that the Orientals would win the decision, but it is evident that our Gov- ernment could not accept such a deci- sion against the will of its own people. Thus from time to time differences arise between nations which cannot be peacefully arbitrated. When a rich nation is politically weak, while a neigh- boring country is poor and cramped but politically powerful, the latter will pos- sess itself of the former's territory, as inevitably as water runs down hill. The attack will come the more quickly if racial differences render the two na- tions naturally antagonistic. It makes little difference whether the rich nation has become relatively weak through race degeneration or through fatuous neg- lect of her defenses. The invasion of 55 THE WRITING ON THE WALL France by the Norsemen, the overrun- ning of the Roman Empire by the bar- barians, and the recent nibblings at China by many nations, are conspicuous examples among many to be found in history. The English, in the days of sailing ships and voyages around the cape, traveled some ten thousand miles to conquer India, a country at that time thirty times larger than England both in area and in population, but disor- ganized and defenseless. The Ameri- cas, Australia, and Africa have in suc- cession been conquered by invasions from Europe, until they are to-day en- tirely held by European races or their descendants. History itself is, in the broadest sense, nothing but a record of successive conquests won over nations lacking suf- ficient military preparedness. 56 PREPARATIONISTS ARE PACIFISTS No distance has ever been great enough to protect any race or nation from attack. Uncoordinated bulk has ever been a danger rather than a protection. La- tent but disorganized resources are valueless. China is potentially the most powerful nation of the world, but this fact has in no way retarded her dis- possession. Like India she would long since have been entirely gobbled up had it not been for the mutual jealousies of her assailants. 67 CHAPTER IV A WARNING AND AN EXAMPLE DURING the present war the terms, struggle for existence, and survival of the fittest, have been often used, but have had read into them strange meanings never warranted by any of the scientists of the evolutionary school. The horrors of the great conflict have shaken the world out of its ha- bitual ruts of thought, and bewildered by the destruction of many of its old formulae, peoples and nations are trying to find some underlying principle which will at least sound like an explanation 58 WARNING AND EXAMPLE of the inexplicable things happening in Europe. Thus many writers have de- clared that Germany, in her present methods of frightfulness, was simply putting into practical use Darwin's theory of the struggle for existence, where brute force was the supreme ap- peal in which all the considerations of humanity and the results of civilization were to be thrown aside until ruthless barbarity would become the determining factor of national survival. To ascribe such a doctrine to Darwin or to any leading evolutionist is mon- strous. The injustice to Darwin is of minor importance, but that the excite- ment of war should bring into promi- nence phrases that give a dangerous twist to public thought is a thing that ought not to go on without a protest. In point of fact, even every half- 59 THE WRITING ON THE WALL baked college boy knows that Darwin never taught that the survival of the fit- test either meant that the best survived, or that the physically most powerful sur- vived. He simply held that in each era those individuals survive and perpetuate themselves who are best able to profit by or adapt themselves to the particu- lar conditions which environ them. For confirmation of the law that sur- vival, national as well as individual, de- pends on the ability to fit oneself to meet surrounding conditions, we need not draw upon the imagination, lean on theories, nor delve into ancient history, since the most striking examples of the practical working of that law have been demonstrated both positively and nega- tively before our eyes in the cases of Japan and China. The American after dinner attitude 60 WARNING AND EXAMPLE of mind is that we rescued Japan from semi-barbarism and politely invited her to enter into the circle of civilized na- tions. In point of fact for long genera- tions before Perry's ship entered the Bay of Yedo, the Japanese had been an educated, civilized and cultured people. The form of their civilization was a little out of date it is true, being feudal in type and non-militant in spirit. They had, wisely or unwisely, some two centuries before decided that their civilization was superior to that of sur- rounding nations. They, therefore, deliberately decided to protect themselves from any unde- sirable outside influences and taking the only possible way to avoid conform- ing to or coming in competition with neighboring races they closed their gates and shut themselves inside the narrow 61 THE WRITING ON THE WALL limits of their island home. No for- eigner was allowed to enter; if he came in by accident as shipwrecked soldiers occasionally did, he was never again permitted to leave. If a Japanese de- parted secretly from his native land he was not allowed to return. Japan thus furnishes the most im- portant example of a deliberate attempt to escape the law that the survival of a nation depends upon adapting it- self to its environment. Her experi- ment was even temporarily successful. It was, however, possible only so long as oceans remained barriers of isolation, when they became highways of com- munication, her defiance of natural Jaw broke down. As long as we Americans continue to pat ourselves on the back, and clasping hands across the Pacific, exhibit Japan 62 WARNING AND EXAMPLE as our ward whom we invited into the family of civilization we completely lose the whole point and lesson of the historic incident. Indirectly we did bring ul- timate benefits to Japan, for which she is now justly grateful and which are powerful reasons for closer and closer unity between the two peoples, but at the time it was quite different; Japan's one desire was to be left to herself to preserve her feudal system, to elaborate her complicated ceremonials, and to de- velop her great art. If our entrance into Japanese affairs was such a love feast, why did we force our way into her harbors with warships? The negotiations extending over some years were carried on, it is true, with due regard to diplomatic usages, many friendly and flattering speeches were ex- changed, but the bare fact remains that 63 THE WRITING ON THE WALL our warships and their guns made somber background for much glitter- ing ceremony. We meant to open the ports of Japan; most certainly by friendly means if possible, but the Japa- nese understood the background of war- ships, and realized that they were no longer able to prevent invasion. With their feudal form of government and their obsolete weapons, they were pow- erless before us. In one moment they were forced to face the consequence of having so long defied the law of evolu- tion by which nations as well as individ- uals must conform to the rules of the game. Had the Japanese been barbarians or even uncivilized they would have gone under ; they were, however, then as now, a brainy, resolute, patriotic and fear- less people. The humility of submit- 64, WARNING AND EXAMPLE ting to demands which they dared not refuse, and were powerless to resist, sank deep into the public consciousness. With marvelous self-control they cov- ered their wounded pride under cour- teous phrases and patiently bided their time. Their whole subsequent history is a conscious, deliberate, and determined ef- fort, and a most successful one to make up for lost time, and thoroughly to fit themselves as a nation for survival in the environment into which America had forced them to enter. They worked rapidly but never too rapidly for thoroughness. Investigat- ing first and executing afterwards, they did not stumble or blunder, nor con- ceitedly try to develop along their ob- solete lines. Revering national tradi- tions, reverencing ancient customs, lov- 65 THE WRITING ON THE WALL ing the arts of peace, they yet threw away everything that was an obstacle to an assured national existence. In any field of accomplishment they asked only what was the best, and hav- ing decided that question, they promptly adopted it, thus profiting by hundreds of years of experiment which has been conducted by other nations. For navy, they modeled after England; for army, after Germany; in electricity and rail- roads, they called on America; for art inspiration they had long since looked to China that they did not at the reor- ganization replace it by occidental meth- ods amply prove that they deemed that inferior to their own. Early in the program for Japanese re-creation it was found that progress was blocked by the feudal organization of the people, involving class division 66 which could not be bridged. Judging that a constitutional monarchy was the best form of government for the new Japan, it became necessary to abolish these class distinctions what France accomplished only after the bloody revo- lution and England has even now only imperfectly secured after centuries of struggle, Japan accomplished in a sin- gle day. In 1876 after several years warning, she abolished the Samurai class, discontinued the pensions they had through generations enjoyed, and made it illegal for them longer to wear the swords which had been the in- signia of their rank as members of the noble class. The leveling of the highest class ac- complished, it next became necessary to raise the lowest class of despised yeta to honorable citizenship, and to 67 THE WRITING ON THE WALL recognition as fellow countrymen. This it was hoped to accomplish through ele- mentary compulsory education where all the children would be constantly as- sociated; but when the public schools were opened it was found that the chil- dren of the Samurai class would not study beside the yeta children, where- upon some of the highest nobles of the country patriotically solved the ques- tion by going, themselves, into the schools and sitting on the benches be- side the despised little outcasts. Thus did Japan ruthlessly abandon, cut out, or destroy anything in her na- tional life which might, in the struggle for national existence, render her less fit to survive. No other nation except France has so freed herself from obso- lete forms and hampering traditions, and France gained her emancipation 68 WARNING AND EXAMPLE only through the most terrible revolu- tion of history. Japan's patriotism permitted her to reconstruct her forms of government, and abolish all privileged classes with calmness and courage, and without bloodshed. Her reward for bringing herself into harmony with the law of evolution is that she has been able, not only to preserve her national existence, but materially to enlarge her borders and to take her rightful rank as one of the great nations of the earth. She realized that she had to sacrifice many beloved ideals to worldly economic fitness if she wished to continue to ex- ist. With Japan's progress is contrasted China's inertia. What she was fifty years ago she practically is to-day; un- wieldy, uncoordinated and self-satis- 69 THE WRITING ON THE WALL fied. Out of harmony with the law of survival she would long ago have fallen to pieces of her own weight if mutual jealousies among the powers had not kept her together by outside pressure. Many nations have nibbled at her bor- ders, and the first one that has a free hand will annex her bodily. Latently she is the most powerful nation of the earth, not only on account of her vast population and great area, but more es- pecially because she is an old race, wise in many things little known to occi- dental peoples. She has forgotten much and neglected more that, if or- ganized, would be of vital use in a na- tional emergency. Her people are the personification of economy, patience and tenacity. There are at present some signs of an awakening in China's centuries of sleep. What future policy 70 WARNING AND EXAMPLE she develops, depends very much upon Japan, whose armed hand at present lies heavy on her unprotected body. Until China complies with the law of survival by adapting herself to conditions as they are to-day, the question of her na- tional existence lies not in her own hands, but in the hands of those na- tions who have already adjusted them- selves in harmony with fundamental evolutionary laws. In an era when all the surrounding nations are armed, if one country delib- erately decides not to fit herself to meet this condition, she cannot hope to sur- vive whether her name be China or the United States of America. If I seem in a work of preparedness for America to have given an undue pro- portion of space to Japanese conditions, it is not by accident, but because Japa- 71 THE WRITING ON THE WALL nese prowess and progress has an im- mediate and most vital bearing on our own requirements for army and navy increase. Japan as our friend and well- wisher would be a powerful national as- set. As an enemy or even as a neighbor with a grievance she must remain a seri- ous menace. We in America need first to have better comprehension of her val- uable qualities as a co-worker and a truer estimate of her power as an an- tagonist. Understanding the proud spirit of her people we ought to hesitate to wound that pride. England, who of all nations, has the farthest sight in matters of diplomacy made a defensive treaty with Japan as early as 1902; the later treaty of 1905 was in 1911 renewed for ten years longer. Japan is not a rich country, and her 72 Underwood and L'nde THEODORE ROOSEVELT Preparationist With Mr. Roosevelt are shown also the Russian and Japanese Peace Commissioners who met in America in 1905. V Underwood and Underwood WILLIAM JENNINGS BRYAN Anti-Preparationist WARNING AND EXAMPLE resources were much strained by the war with Russia. We may, however, be sure that she will fight in the future, as she has in the past, whenever her national pride is submitted to too great humiliation. Moreover she is always prepared to fight if needs must be. Her army is kept at high efficiency. She is steadily increasing her navy. Her political im- portance in the world's counsel insures to her valuable allies. Her medical corps is a model for the whole world and she has had experience in three wars. Most important of all, she possesses a united, devoted and intensely patriotic people, to every one of whom any form of self sacrifice for the country's safety, is a joy and consecration. The Japanese have universal service and universal enthusiasm in military luty. 73 CHAPTER V AEMY REFORM IN determining America's specific re- quirement for adequate national de- fense, we should first estimate the num- ber of troops, together with all neces- sary supplies, ammunition, and horses, which could by an enemy be landed upon our coast within a given time. In this connection it is necessary to con- sider as possible opponents not only Japan and Germany but all the other powerful nations of the world, for his- tory shows that the friends of to-day may be enemies to-morrow, or that enemies of this year may be friends the next. Japan and Russia are to-day 74 allies, who ten years ago were bitterest enemies, while Bulgaria and Serbia, who together defeated Turkey in 1912, have since that time already fought against each other in one war and are now in the throes of another. Before an enemy who attacks us can transport troops overseas, he must have almost complete control of those seas. Therefore, if we could be certain that no hostile war fleet could ever deprive us of control of our oceans, we might dispense with military preparedness beyond that needed to protect our out- lying possessions and our Canadian and Mexican borders. Conversely, if we cannot be certain of commanding the two oceans, we must build up an army of sufficient size to discourage invasion. It should be remembered that since we possess two long and widely sepa- 75 THE WRITING ON THE WALL rated coast lines, we cannot be even moderately certain of maintaining sea control unless we constantly maintain a navy virtually twice as large and effec- tive as the navy of any other nation. One man at the Panama might with dynamite cut our navy in two. A land- slide would, and several times has, ac- complished the same result. Moreover, it should be remembered that no navy, however large it is, can absolutely be counted to maintain con- trol of the seas. In a day the Merrimac gained control of the sea for the Con- federacy; and within a few hours the Monitor won it back again. The day Great Britain launched the first dread- nought the other navies of the world became obsolete, and so remained until they too acquired ships of the dread- nought class; since a single dread- 76 nought could sink a fleet of predread- noughts. To possess a large navy reduces the chances of invasion. The larger navy a country possesses, the less likely is she to lose sea control, and the fewer na- tions or coalitions of nations need she fear. It must not be forgotten, how- ever, that in the present war even the second navy of the world has been un- able to leave the shelter of its fortified harbors, and the war is in consequence being fought out entirely on land. It would be inadvisable, if not im- possible for America to maintain a navy larger than that of any other nation. Her geographical situation makes it peculiarly difficult for a navy alone to protect her from attack. She is therefore compelled to possess also adequate land forces. 77 THE WRITING ON THE WALL Having determined that our navy cannot be counted upon to protect us from all attacks, we must next consider the scope of possible invasions and try to determine the minimum defense which would be necessary to meet them with success. Japan, the most power- ful nation on our west, using only half her merchant fleet as transports, could in four weeks land one hundred thou- sand men and twenty-five thousand horses on our Pacific coast, and, as ad- ditional vessels became available, could in each succeeding period of six weeks land another detachment of one hun- dred and forty thousand men and thirty-five thousand horses. Any one of the several militant na- tions on our east could land much larger forces in less time. Germany, for in- stance, could by using less than half her 78 ARMY REFORM merchant marine, in two weeks land half a million men and fifty thousand horses on our Atlantic seaboard. And in each succeeding month would be able to land an army of six hundred thou- sand men. These figures are based upon of- ficial statistics. Lloyd's Register for 1914-15 credits Germany with 5,090,- 331 gross tons of steel merchant ships. The regulations of the German army do not, however, permit the use of steamers of less than 2000 gross tons for the transportation of troops; of such ships Germany possesses, accord- ing to Lloyd, 4,018,185 tons. The Japanese Field Service Regula- tions specify that three gross tons are sufficient to transport a man and all equipment and supplies no matter what the size of the ship. In the United 79 THE WRITING ON THE WALL States Field Service Regulations for 1914 (page 208) three gross tons is given as the minimum allowed for the transportation of a soldier, and ten gross tons as the minimum for a horse ; under ordinary peace conditions larger space is permitted. Lloyd's Register, 1914-15, shows that there is not a single ship of over 2000 tons in the entire German mer- chant marine which does not possess speed enough to cross the Atlantic Ocean in twelve days. By combining these figures it is evi- dent that the statement that Germany could land half a million men upon our eastern coast in two weeks' time is far from a ridiculous one. Before the present war there were many theories as to how long it would take Germany to mobilize after she had declared war 80 ARMY REFORM on France. In point of fact, inside the German border and ranged parallel with the boundary of Belgium, a large German army was marking time before any declaration of war, and at that mo- ment needed only to be given the word to step across the border. It is cer- tainly not unreasonable to suppose that Germany might embark her men before she chose to declare war against Amer- ica. It is naturally to be supposed that we would not be attacked by a small nation, and that if invaded by a power- ful nation she would certainly organize and send against us the largest force possible. We must remember that in- ternational alliances have become the order of the day; that wars are now al- most invariably fought by coalitions of nations. Thus France and Great Brit- 81 THE WRITING ON THE WALL am, although hereditary enemies, com- bined in the Crimea to support Turkey against Russia. To-day Russia, Great Britain, and France have temporarily united against their common rival, Ger- many. Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia, who have long felt toward one another a ferocious hatred, temporarily com- bined in the last Balkan war to attack Turkey, their common foe. It is therefore highly probable that we may some day have to fight against a combination of two or more nations. If, after the present hostilities have ceased, Japan and Germany should both be antagonistic toward us, nothing could be more according to precedent than that they should temporarily com- promise their present difficulties in or- der to deal us more successful blows. This is, however, only a possibility, and 82 ARMY REFORM since I am pleading for the minimum of preparedness rather than for the maximum, I will assume for purposes of discussion that we shall be in conflict with only one nation at a time. An enemy, having fifty-five hundred miles of coast from which to choose a point of attack, would naturally not at- tempt to land near any one of our forti- fied ports, which reminds us that coast defenses are useless without an ade- quate mobile field army to prevent landings in the wide gaps between them. Even the Dardanelles would have fallen in short order had the splen- did forts not been amply supported by the Germanized Turkish field army. It is therefore self-evident that an enemy landing five hundred thousand trained and organized troops on our coast in two weeks would need to be op- 83 THE WRITING ON THE WALL posed by an equal force that could be mobilized in the same length of time. We must be ready to match numbers for numbers, quality for quality, and speed for speed, up to the ultimate limit of the enemy's strength at the point of attack. Effectively to defend the At- lantic coast, we should therefore be obliged within two weeks' time to mo- bilize 500,000 men and transport them to the scene of action. In two months we should need to put into the field against the enemy's principal attack 1,500,000 troops. At least one million additional men would be necessary to guard against feints and raids, to pro- tect our lines of communication and our arsenals from attack by spies and agents of the enemy and to perform transport and base-line duties. Euro- pean armies are to-day employing at 84 ARMY REFORM least as many men behind the battle line and along the lines of communication as they have in the actual front. Thus we arrive at a minimum total of 2,500,000 men necessary to defend us against the attack of a single great na- tion. Such an army would even then rank only eighth in size among the armies of the world. 85 CHAPTER VI THE SWISS SYSTEM IT is manifestly undesirable that we should ever attempt to maintain a standing army of 2,500,000 men. The objections which Americans have to great standing armies like those of Ger- many and Russia are well founded. How, then, can we ever be prepared to mobilize the needed number of trained and disciplined troops in so short a time? In answer to this question our military experts unanimously advocate the adoption of a system of universal compulsory military service based upon and largely copied from the Swiss sys- tem and its counterpart in Australia. 86 THE SWISS SYSTEM These offer us for adoption not an experiment but a thoroughly tested and eminently successful method of na- tional defense. The underlying ideas of the German standing army and of the Swiss mili- tary system are diametrically opposed. Militarism in the extreme type is overbearing, aggressive, and brutal. The patriotism it fosters is two-faced, for it inculcates hatred of neighboring nations quite as much as love of one's own country. In extreme cases it de- velops a patriotism gone mad, while it makes aggression easy and even inevi- table. By contrast, the Swiss and Aus- tralian systems make no preparation for aggressive warfare and therefore do not hold up before the minds of the young any ambition for conflict beyond 87 THE WRITING ON THE WALL their own borders or for the conquest of their neighbors. Adequate prepara- tion for self-defense curtails aggres- sion, and brings nearer and nearer the possibility of combined international action to curb truculent nations and to civilize barbaric races. In the Australian system, military science taught by competent official in- structors, form a compulsory part of the education of every boy between the ages of twelve and eighteen; during those years he undergoes military in- struction coincidently with his other studies, so that he reaches the age of nineteen a trained soldier. His mili- tary education is imparted to him at the most acquisitive age, and does not interfere with his later productive, industrial occupations. When he reaches the age of nineteen he is en- 88 THE SWISS SYSTEM rolled as a soldier in the battalion of the region in which he lives. From that time he is in active service for two weeks of every year, for practice which is intended to keep fresh in mind his military knowledge. He remains a member of the battalion for eight years, until he reaches the age of twen- ty-seven, and throughout that period he is at all times liable for service in de- fense of his country. After reaching the age of nineteen he thereafter under- goes only about one hundred and twelve days' training. He cannot, however, be sent out of Australia unless he expressly volunteers for foreign serv- ice. The Australian army unit is a battalion of one thousand men. The country is therefore divided into units of population each of which contains approximately one thousand young men 89 THE WRITING ON THE WALL between the ages of nineteen and twen- ty-seven. In Switzerland the young men, after having had preliminary training in school, join their regiments in their twentieth year, and during the summer of that year undergo two months of continuous, intensive military instruc- tion. For twelve years thereafter they are at all times liable for immediate service in defense of their country. During each of these years they perform two weeks' training in the field. After the age of twenty, only about thirty weeks of military serv- ice are required, except in case of war. The system recommended by Ameri- can experts for adoption by this coun- try would begin with the training of all boys between the ages of twelve and 90 THE SWISS SYSTEM eighteen in gymnastics, hygiene, the manual of arms, rifle practice, and pla- toon and company formations. In the summer of his nineteenth year every boy would be assigned to his regiment and begin active service with two months of intensive training in bat- talion, regimental, and brigade manoeu- vers, and afterward, he would be en- rolled for service for four years, or until he is twenty-three his service in time of peace being limited to two weeks spent in camp each summer. At twen- ty-three years of age the young man would be mustered out of his regiment and placed in the reserve, from which he could be called to active service only in case of dire need. This system would eventually furnish the United States with an active army of 2,500,000 men under twenty-four years of age, 91 THE WRITING ON THE WALL and with a reserve of nearly 8,000,000 trained soldiers between the ages of twenty-four and forty-five who could be called upon in case of a long war. Thus after his eighteenth year a total of only fourteen weeks' military train- ing would be required of each normal male citizen. No member of the citizen forces would be required either to serve out- side the territory of the United States or to aid in suppressing local civil dis- orders such as strikes. Each year in the United States a mil- lion men reach the age of twenty of whom about 65 per cent, are fit for military service. Military training and service would, under peace conditions, be completely finished by all men before they reached their twenty-fourth birthday, thus in- 92 THE SWISS SYSTEM terfering as little as possible with their productive life. In the event that war were thrust upon us, the casualties would be borne by a class of men who, for the most part, had not yet acquired families or reached positions of great responsibility. It should not be forgotten that the adoption of a system of preparedness in no way increases the liability of the individual to serve as a soldier in the event of war. If we should have a big war in the near future, the draft would, of necessity, be instituted and enforced and our citizens would all have to fight, whether they liked it or not. Pre- paredness renders such an eventuality less likely, and makes it improbable that if we do fight, our dead would have to die in vain. To adopt the Swiss system it will not 93 THE WRITING ON THE WALL be necessary for the United States to institute new units of population, since she already possesses such units in her national congressional districts. Every district could be called upon to furnish a mixed brigade composed of two regiments of infantry, two bat- teries of field artillery, a squadron of cavalry, a transport train, a signal- corps detachment, a company of engi- neers, and a field hospital. Certain western districts would be called upon to support brigades composed of cav- alry regiments and a battalion of horse artillery. The brigades thus formed would be organized into divisions, corps, and armies under the supervision of the gen- eral staff at Washington, presided over by a military secretary of war. The standing army would be limited to 94 THE SWISS SYSTEM staff officers, instructors, and engineers ; to a certain amount of infantry, cav- alry, and field-artillery for foreign gar- rison duty, in Alaska, the Philippines, Hawaii, and the Panama Canal Zone, and for manning in part our coast de- fenses; to such a number of officers as would be sufficient to supervise the mili- tary training of our boys and to main- tain an adequate reserve supply of mu- nitions; it would include certain highly trained crack regiments, especially of mountain, siege, and field artillery, by which the experimental work necessary to determine the proper standard of military efficiency would be carried on. West Point, the army service schools, the garrison regiments, and the crack military regiments would all be used as means of training professional officers for staff appointments and for high 95 THE WRITING ON THE WALL commands in the national field forces. All the company officers and a certain number of the field officers of the line regiments would be civilians who had voluntarily undergone special training and won promotion by marked ability. 96 CHAPTER VII EDUCATIONAL IMPORTANCE OF MILITARY TRAINING IN addition to its protective value, such a military system yields edu- cational and economic benefits which at least equal its defensive importance. The result most generally obtained, and the one which would be of greatest im- portance to the United States, is the fostering of a sense of mutual responsi- bility between the State and the in- dividual. Even if there were no need of national defense and no rumors of wars, the Swiss system would more than repay its cost to Switzerland in the increased physical vigor and im- 97 THE WRITING ON THE WALL proved mentality of its citizens. It in- culcates promptness, obedience, exact- ness, self-control, and truthfulness. It teaches discipline, and hygiene. It tends to mold the heterogeneous ele- ments of the nation into homogeneity, a result sorely needed by the conglom- eration of assorted nationalities assem- bled, but not yet blended together, under the American flag. Her mili- tary system has made of modern Swit- zerland a fearless and united country, notwithstanding the fact that her popu- lation is made up of French, Germans, and Italians, speaking three languages and acknowledging two religions. If such a system were adopted by the United States every growing boy would be constantly under inspection by trained surgeons and military ex- perts. His physical weaknesses and 98 MILITARY TRAINING mental defects would be considered and, as far as possible, remedied. It is now well recognized that a large proportion of the ineffective, criminal, or insane members of society suffer from physical defects that could so far be modified during childhood as to make useful citi- zens out of potentially dangerous per- sons. Many defects which cannot be detected by superficial inspection be- come very evident during military train- ing, which not only provided the in- structors with an opportunity to study deficiencies, but furnishes also the means and time for applying the rem- edies. Military training, outdoor life, and expert supervision by men who under- stand crude boyish impulses would do much toward converting lawless energy into disciplined power. The women 99 THE WRITING ON THE WALL of Australia at first so strongly opposed the plan for compulsory military train- ing that they retarded and nearly de- feated its adoption; within two years' time, however, the wonders which it had wrought in their own boys con- verted them into its most ardent advo- cates. One of the strongest arraignments of our American civilization is the great number of inefficient, unmoral, or crim- inal persons in whom the State takes no interest unless they have been officially labeled paupers, idiots, or criminals. We make no intelligent effort to di- minish by protective measures such wastefulness of a nation's best asset its citizens. Another serious defect in our national life in America is the lack of loyalty for or sense of duty toward the Government. Europeans emphat- 100 MILITARY TRAINING ically declare us the most unpatriotic nation in the world. These defects would be remedied, or at least greatly mitigated by military training which rapidly develops civic consciousness. It teaches the young to revere their flag. Their patriotism kindled at the most susceptible age, abides with them all their lives there- after. It becomes no longer a phrase, a song, a momentary emotion, but the mainspring of their civic life. It grows with their growth, they breathe it in with every inspiration. As their country makes herself responsible for their well-being, they, in return, feel responsibility for her safety and pros- perity, and realize that it is the right and duty of every citizen to defend his country. They learn that if the need arises, they must even make the su- 101 THE WRITING ON THE WALL preme sacrifice of dying for that coun- try. It is a wholesome thought, which teaches them to make cheerfully the thousand smaller sacrifices of good citizenship. If any one of us questions whether it is worth while to make the supreme sacrifice of dying for the ideals and the safety of his native land, the best au- thority to accept in answer to this ques- tion is the man who is actually making that sacrifice; as, for instance, a mor- tally wounded soldier. It sometimes happens that fatally wounded men lie without pain and with clear minds for several hours before they die. They realize their approaching fate with a certainty which comes only to men who feel that the very foundation of life has crumbled. They live a very long time in those last few hours. They review 102 MILITARY TRAINING minutely their whole lives, weighing and considering. They are detached and unprejudiced, as only those can be who have absolutely nothing more either to. gain or to lose. They can then most justly estimate what is of true value and what is not. In France I have talked with many such men, have taken down their last messages ; have, in answer to their crav- ing for human companionship, sat by them until they died. Most of them were not philosophers, they were not even officers, but only simple soldiers who before the war had been perhaps clerks or farmers; and yet each and every one of them was filled with a sub- lime and radiant contentment because he was dying for his conception of right, for his patrie f for his ideals. Their faces wore beatific smiles, and 103 THE WRITING ON THE WALL their eyes shone with a light of great happiness. Never again can one who has seen such heroic deaths ask himself that coward question, "Is it worth while to make the supreme sacrifice in defense of one's ideals?" 104 REAR-ADMIRAL BRADLEY A. FISKE who recently resigned as Aide for Naval Operations. He graduated from Annapolis, standing second in his class. In 1877 he invented an apparatus for lowering life-boats in a sea-way. In 1889 he invented the famous Fiske tejescope sight. In 1896 he invented an electric signal by means of which the alarm is given in water-tight compartments below decks. In 1904 he invented the turret range finder, an optical instrument by means of which an observer may measure his distance from the enemy while protected within a turret. JOSEPHUS DANIELS Grand Admiral of the American Navy Editor of the Raleigh (North Carolina) "News and Observer." He has been for many years an active Democratic politician. He ably assisted Bryan in nominating Wilson for the presidency. CHAPTER VIII TEMPORARY EXPEDIENTS TO-DAY at least seven nations pos- sess armies of far more than two and one-half million men. An army of that size is, therefore, for us the irre- ducible minimum. No steps which fall short of this mark will be of use except as they lead logically toward it as an ultimate result. The system of universal military serv- ice recommended by our staff officers and based upon the successful Swiss and Australian systems cannot suddenly be put into full operation; legal and polit- ical obstacles must first be overcome, and even when this has been accom- 105 THE WRITING ON THE WALL plished the system will give us an ef- fective army only after it has been for several years in process of development. It is imperative that for the interim we make some immediate provision for na- tional safety; since an international cri- sis may confront us at any time. The one effective means of thus quickly protecting ourselves is to adopt and promptly put into operation such an extensive program of naval construc- tion, as would give us a mighty fleet in the shortest possible time. This would involve a procedure totally different from that advocated by the present ad- ministration, which will not result in any increase in the relative effectiveness of our navy. We have at present in service only twelve dreadnoughts and no battle cruisers and are greatly ham- pered by lack of proper auxiliaries. 106 TEMPORARY EXPEDIENTS Of battle cruisers and dreadnoughts Japan possesses twelve, Germany twenty-six and Great Britain forty- three. Our immediate needs involve the laying down of at least eight super- dreadnoughts, together with a propor- tionate number of battle cruisers, cruisers, destroyers and auxiliaries, and their completion in record time. Such a program is of course too extravagant to be made a permanent custom. It is urged as an emergency measure and as the only effective temporary expedient that will tide us over until we have at- tained the Swiss system in full opera- tion. If properly carried out it would in two or three years double the battle efficiency of our navy. The necessity for such a program quickly becomes apparent when we con- 107 THE WRITING ON THE WALL sider the condition of our army as it now is. At the present moment * the only adequately trained and organized mobile troops stationed east of the Mis- sissippi are two regiments of regular cavalry and two regiments of regular infantry, a total of about four thousand men. These constitute the sole mobile forces now in that wide area having suf- ficient tactical cohesion and enough ex- perience in the art of war to withstand the shock of battle. It would be utterly impossible to place our state militia organizations in any sort of fighting trim in less than six months. Good marksmanship and un- coordinated bravery are in the conflicts of to-day very much at a discount be- fore efficiency and organization. At the beginning of the present war * December, 1915. 108 TEMPORARY EXPEDIENTS Great Britain's territorial battalions were probably better trained than the best of our militia regiments, and yet despite the desperate need of reinforce- ments at the front, no British terri- torial organization could be brought to a state of efficiency that permitted its use in battle in less than eight months. It is an axiom in both the German and French armies that troops which have had less than a year's preparation are literally worse than useless, their ad- dition to a weak army only tending to make it still weaker. From the days when Alexander's crack little army smashed the unnum- bered, but untrained, Persian hosts, down to the immediate present, when the Germans, with comparatively small losses, have in a little over a year in- flicted six million casualties upon Rus- 109 THE WRITING ON THE WALL sia's unwieldy and disorganized hordes, reliance upon mere numbers has ever been a delusion and a snare. It has been said that when two forces meet in combat the actual battle merely secures a decision as to the relative values of two completed machines, and their degrees of preparedness for use. The lay mind grasps the significance of these facts slowly and with difficulty. It does not immediately perceive that since we have 5500 miles of coast line, we must have troops to protect the wide gaps between our isolated coast de- fenses. Our field army is, as a matter of fact, so insignificant that it could not protect even the flank and rear of our permanent forts. We have therefore no single fixed gun which is safe from a raiding party which might be landed from a hostile fleet. 110 TEMPORARY EXPEDIENTS Two seasoned army corps of 40,000 men, once gaining foothold on our shore, could work their will with us for at least six months. There are several great nations any one of which could within a month land a dozen such corps upon our coast. We must therefore, until we have adopted the Swiss system, make such a disaster as improbable as possible; this can be accomplished only by an immediate and systematic ex- travagance in naval construction. Ill CHAPTER IX THE ESSENTIAL BASIS OF ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS LET us next consider the various steps which would lead upward toward the adoption of the Swiss sys- tem, and the attainment of our irre- ducible minimum of military prepared- ness. We find at the very start that our present military system is fundamen- tally wrong, and that we must have not only an increase in quantity but a radi- cal change in kind. To begin with, the only firm founda- tion of efficiency in defense and the nec- essary first step toward any subsequent ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS progress is the appointment as secre- tary of the navy and secretary of war of trained professional men selected for special fitness and proved ability. These most important offices are now conferred as political rewards usually for having assisted in electing a Presi- dent. A lawyer is invariably chosen as attorney general and a man with bank- ing experience is always selected to fill the post of secretary of treasury, but any faithful political henchman has thus far been considered good enough to be secretary of the navy or army. No civilian, be he editor, college presi- dent, politician, author, or legislator, is qualified to formulate plans for our na- tional defense or to hold any high mili- tary office. The profession of arms is to-day one of the most intricate and technical in existence. Moreover, its 113 THE WRITING ON THE WALL errors are far more costly than those of any other profession. A surgeon who performs unskilfully and unsuccessfully a major operation has only one vic- tim, while a brigade commander who through lack of training makes a serious mistake sacrifices the lives of thousands of men and places his commanding gen- eral at a tactical disadvantage that is likely to prove even more costly. The incompetent politician who without any training attempts to plan out the de- tails of a mobilization or to pass upon the efficiency of a naval unit jeopardizes the lives and prosperity of millions of people. Politicians are just as incom- petent in military science as they would be without technical education in one of the learned professions. Only the high profession of politics seems to require neither training nor experience. 114 ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS It is often said that American officers are not altogether unselfish in their de- sire to see civilians removed from our ministries of defense. Even if this is true, can they be blamed? Would not a member of any other high profession be indignant if through political influ- ence a man untrained in that profession were suddenly to be made autocratic chief over him and all his fellows? Therefore I must maintain that no mat- ter what system of defense we institute or how large a bond issue we declare, we can never have safe and sound reor- ganization and enlargement of our army and navy until we have military and not civilian secretaries of war and marine as members of the President's cabinet. No matter how great his ability or how wide his experience in political fields, no statesman lacking special 115 THE WRITING ON THE WALL training in the profession of arms is fitted to act as director of the army or navy. Without question Abraham Lincoln was the greatest statesman and the no- blest patriot that our country has yet produced. No one ever questions his supremacy as a leader or his preemi- nence as a man of wide and intensely practical knowledge of human affairs. Would that we possessed any one half as able as the victor of 1860 to lead us in the campaign of 1916! If any un- trained civilian could ever by any pos- sibility have successfully directed mili- tary affairs, President Lincoln, cooper- ating with Mr. Stanton, the least in- competent of our long line of secre- taries of war, would certainly have been successful What were the facts? 116 ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS Col. G. R. F. Henderson, one of the foremost authorities on our Civil War, writes that, "In assuming control of the Union armies, Lincoln and Stanton made the Confederates a present of at least 50,000 men." Field Marshal Viscount Wolseley says: "To hand over to civilians the administration and organization of an army, whether in peace or war, or to al- low them to interfere in the selection of officers for command or promotion, is most injurious to efficiency; while dur- ing the war, to allow them, no matter how high their political capacity, to dic- tate to commanders in the field any line of conduct, after the army has once re- ceived its commission, is simply to insure disaster." ". . . In the first three years of the War of Secession, when Mr. Lincoln and Mr. Stanton practi- 117 THE WRITING ON THE WALL cally controlled the movements of the Federal forces, the Confederates were generally successful . . . the North- ern prospects did not begin to brighten until Mr. Lincoln, with that unselfish intelligence which distinguished him, abdicated his military functions in favor of General Grant." In Grant's memoirs we find the fol- lowing illuminating passage: "In my first interview with Mr. Lincoln alone he stated to me that he never professed to be a military man nor to know how campaigns should be conducted . . . but that pressure forced him into issuing his series of military orders. He did not know but they were all wrong and did know that some of them were. "He submitted a plan of campaign of his own, which he wanted me to hear and then do as I pleased about it; he 118 ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS pointed out two streams which emptied into the Potomac, and suggested that the army might be moved in boats and be landed between the mouths of these streams. We would then have the Po- tomac to bring our supplies and the tributaries would protect our flanks while we moved out. I listened respect- fully but did not suggest that the same streams would protect Lee's flanks, while he shut us up. I did not com- municate my plans to the President nor did I to the Secretary of War." * To one who is familiar with the extremely moderate tone in which Grant's memoirs are written, such a statement is doubly convincing. If Abraham Lincoln, great genius that he was, proved himself incompetent to direct armies in warfare, what would * Written of an epoch after Lincoln had abdicated his military powers. 119 THE WRITING ON THE WALL happen to us in case of a conflict if our defenses had to be organized by the petty politicians of to-day? It has been said, "The fool never learns at all, the average man learns from experience, the wise man learns from the experience of others." Let us in the present case try to learn from the experience of others. Germany, in preparing for the pres- ent World War, selected as executive heads of her army those of her general staff-officers who were thought to be most capable. Results have certainly vindicated her judgment. The very first step deemed necessary by Great Britain after declaring war on Germany was to make Lord Kitchener her minister of war. In France, General Joffre, before he could begin the Battle of the Marne, 120 DR. LYMAN ABBOTT Preparationist ARMY AND NAVY REFORMS had to threaten to resign his command in order to force the removal of an in- terfering and incompetent minister of war. After fifteen months of unsuc- . cessful campaigning, she had been re- luctantly compelled to admit that her difficulties had been largely due to civilian interference, and in conse- quence, after deposing the civilian in- cumbents, she has appointed General Gallieni minister of war and Rear- Admiral Lacaze minister of marine. Germany and Italy, the two coun- tries that have most consistently left war preparations to soldiers, are also the countries that have had to undergo few- est defeats and submit to the smallest measure of invasion. Let us learn by the experience of others, and remove the chieftainships of our army and navy from the category 121 THE WRITING ON THE WALL of political plums. Not only is such a step the first toward better things, but it is one which can be made at once. No antiquated legislation needs to be removed, no new statutes must be passed. Nothing intervenes but the will of a single man. CHAPTER X ESSENTIAL SUPPLEMENTARY REFORMS HERE are numerous minor T changes which can be made al- most as quickly and which tend logically toward the attainment of adequate preparedness. Not the least of these would be to transfer the command of our state regi- ments from the hands of the governors to the Federal Government. This would result in the nationalization of the militia, and would be a distinct step in the right direction. It would allow the militia of the various States to serve their country directly, without the serv- ices of forty-eight middlemen. It THE WRITING ON THE WALL would result in unification and stand- ardization and in a more efficient body of trained civilian officers. To make the militia a national army would be a step toward making it a national army of the Swiss and Australian type. To secure for the militia the best ele- ment of our population the hard-work- ing, clear-thinking, and truly patriotic citizens two changes in our pres- ent methods are absolutely necessary: first, we must pay adequate wages to our militia when in service, and, second, we must cease to demand of our state regiments that they render strike duty. This last is the chief obstacle to enlist- ment, for the better class of working- men will not volunteer for a service that may at some time oblige them to shoot down their fellow workmen. An ideal citizen is the man who is a good soldier SUPPLEMENTARY REFORMS in time of war, and an active participant in political and economic problems in time of peace. But if he fulfils the sec- ond of these two requirements, he is and should be partizan; and if he is forced to perform the duties which properly belong to a state police force like the gendarmerie of France or the Royal Northwestern Mounted Police of Can- ada, he either hesitates to suppress his confederates or is tempted to oppress his antagonists. A good citizen may logically be a soldier or a policeman ; he cannot justly be both at once. This is so generally recognized in European armies that they have their own police forces, which as a rule do no fighting. One of the most necessary items of Preparedness for the United States is the development of its Sanitary Corps. Wars are now won not so much by the 125 THE WRITING ON THE WALL numbers of the enemy who are killed, as by the numbers of one's own men who can be kept fit and in the field of action. The most important duty of the medical corps is not to care for the sick and the wounded but to superin- tend the general hygienic conditions of the army in service. The Japanese, in their war with Russia, gave the most admirable demonstration of efficiency in caring for the health of their men, and our own United States is on record as having shown the most inexcusable, almost criminal neglect of its soldiers during the Spanish-American war. Both stories have often been told but, unfortunately for us, they will be retold as long as sanitation of armies is dis- cussed, or histories of wars written. Disgraceful as our own record was, it is not wise for us to thrust it out of 126 SUPPLEMENTARY REFORMS mind until we have first learned the lessons it can teach us of the evils of the volunteer system and conversely of the need of Preparedness. In wars before the Japanese-Russian conflict the average number of deaths by disease was to those killed in battle in proportion as four to one. In our own little affair with Spain, it rose to fourteen to one. The Japanese in their war with China had lost nearly the general average of four dead of disease for one killed in battle. Ten years later in the Russian war, however, they by adequate development of their medi- cal corps, reversed these figures and in- stead of having sixteen die of sickness to four who died of wounds, they had only one who died of disease for four of wounds or a decrease of 1,600 per cent. The Japanese army in the field is 127 THE WRITING ON THE WALL supposed to have averaged about 600,- 000 men. Of these, a little less than 9 per cent, or about 53,000 were killed in battle or died of wounds received in battle while those who were lost by dis- ease numbered only 12,000. If the average of former wars had been main- tained 262,000 of their soldiers would have died of illness. If they had ap- proached the average of our record of the Spanish war, disease would have destroyed their entire army. In a war where they were opposed by a nation so overwhelmingly superior in numbers as Russia and which commanded almost unlimited resources, the low rate of deaths by disease was an element so im- portant that without it the Japanese could never have won the war. No matter how great their courage, or how- ever perfect the purely military side of 128 SUPPLEMENTARY REFORMS their preparations for the conflict, the loss of those 250,000 men, who were saved to the army by sanitary precau- tions, would certainly have turned the tide against them. It was because the Japanese so clearly realized this, be- cause they had worked out the startling fact that an army in active service kills by neglect many more of its own men than it destroys of the enemy that it concentrated so much of its effort in preparation on the medical aspect. It is important that the heads of the army and navy should have the privi- lege of the floor in the House of Rep- resentatives and in the Senate. It is ludicrous that only roundabout and un- official means of communication are available for information and confer- ence between the legislative and defen- sive branches of our Government. 129 THE WRITING ON THE WALL The enlargement of West Point would be another distinct step in the right direction, for that institution now furnishes us with only one-third the of- ficers who are needed for even our pres- ent diminutive army. It would help matters if the entrance tests were less severe and the "trying out" during the first year more crucial, thus eliminating undesirables by real rather than by ar- tificial tests for military aptitude. It would be an improvement if admission depended upon nation-wide competi- tive examinations, instead of being made by congressional appointment. The effectiveness of even our diminu- tive army is further reduced by the fact that it is scattered about across the con- tinent in some fifty unrelated and use- less little army posts. That our land forces do not attract to their enlisted 130 SUPPLEMENTARY REFORMS ranks the best class of young men is due to the fact that service in insignificant army posts, situated "back home" in some congressman's bailiwick can not be other than unattractive. For purely political reasons we possess so many army posts, for so few soldiers, that a great part of the enlisted man's time must be spent not in studying his pro- fession but in the unkeep of the build- ings and grounds; grass cutting is sub- stituted for rifle practice, and shoveling snow for manoeuvers. Secretary Garrison's plan to estab- lish a volunteer continental army of 400,000 men is impractical. In addi- tion, it is founded on false principles. It is not only the right, but the duty, of every citizen to defend his country. In the present day and generation one can- not defend his country unless one has 131 THE WRITING ON THE WALL been suitably prepared and trained. Therefore such preparation should be general and compulsory. Pericles said, "If ye would save your country, you must go and stand in the ranks your- selves." It is as unpatriotic and un- democratic to hire men to fight for us as it would be to hire them to vote for us. The only good thing that can be said for the Garrison plan is that any- thing would be better than what we now have. 132 CHAPTER XI THE NATION ON TRIAL IT is to be hoped that the present ad- ministration will not continue to support the policy which brought us disaster in 1812 and which was re- sponsible for the occurrence of the Civil War. If it does decide to continue in its dilatory tactics, it will, in order to hold its prestige, be forced by public sentiment at least to seem to do some- thing. It must create the impression that it labors in the cause of prepared- ness if only in order to lessen the chance that its opponents in the next election will make preparedness the dominant issue. To steal the thunder of its ad- 133 THE WRITING ON THE WALL versaries, it may make trivial changes in our present army and navy and thereafter point with pride to its efforts in the cause of preparedness. It is perhaps too early to determine whether the present administration is really trying to bring about a state of adequate preparedness, or if its leaders, asleep to the needs of the country, are merely embarking upon a voyage of compromises and subterfuges. Results are always the final test. Mr. Wilson came into office a teacher and a theorist, with little of that experience called "practical." He apparently believes that wars are things of the past. His administration officially recommended that it might be well to use our battle-ships to carry the mails, or as public training schools for boys. 134 THE NATION ON TRIAL To-day he evidently feels that, no matter what wicked foreign nations may be perpetrating, for the United States at least war is an anacronism and the nation is growing more and more out of sympathy with his present policy based on that idea. The other members of the admini- stration do not altogether command public confidence; one especially mis- trusts any who belong to the Bryan faction, of whom Josephus Daniels is but one example. Mr. Daniels is an exceedingly shrewd and expert poli- tician. It would be a mistake to meas- ure his general political ability by his ignorance of naval affairs. Few poli- tical tricks are unknown to this man who was a faithful follower of Bryan during sixteen unfruitful years. He is suspected of several clever 135 THE WRITING ON THE WALL ruses the object of which is to abate without satisfying the public clamor for preparedness. His demand for fifty small so-called coast-defense subma- rines is an example. In point of fact the day of toy submarines is past, and the era of submersible cruisers, which can attack the enemy's battle-ships upon the high seas, or voyage unaccom- panied from the Kiel Canal to the Hel- lespont, has begun. Even Mr. Daniels must know that until we can build up an adequate army the only way to protect ourselves from invasion is to dominate the ocean between us and possible ene- mies, and that once our inadequate fleet was sunk or driven into harbors, no number of small submarines could pre- vent a landing from being made some- where along our 5500 miles of coast line. Germany's fleet of submarines has yet 136 Brown B PRESIDENT EMERITUS CHARLES W. ELIOT Preparationist THE NATION ON TRIAL to sink a single British transport carry- ing troops to the ports of Calais and Boulogne, and even if transports had been sunk, the landing of other troops would not thereby have been prevented, for it is a soldier's duty to take risks. Moreover, the safe bases of the German submarines would within a week be de- stroyed by British landing parties were it not for the German army, which pro- tects them. Great Britain has been saved from invasion not by submarines and coast defense vessels but by her capital ships which alone control the seas. This les- son is one for America soberly and seri- ously to consider. During the last decade our naval pol- icy has been renewed year by year. In that time we have built battle-ships at a rate of approximately two and a half 137 THE WRITING ON THE WALL a year, and no single Congress has ever received credit for authorizing more than three capital ships. The keen po- litical mind of Daniels evidently per- ceived a chance to befog the issue of 1916 by placing before Congress a bill demanding the building of twenty bat- tle-ships in the next eight years. He thus creates the impression that he is about to construct twenty battle-ships when, as a matter of fact, he is merely recommending the perpetuation for eight years to come of the totally in- adequate rate of increase of the last decade ! It is true that the size of the battle- ships we build is constantly being en- larged, but this fact is not significant since the rate of increase in the ships of other nations is even greater. President Wilson, in his message to 138 THE NATION ON TRIAL Congress, recommended the building of only ten battle-ships, in the next five years; whereby in effect he approves the building of even fewer battle-ships in future than we have per year aver- aged to add to our navy in the past. Dreadnoughts and super-dread- noughts are technically classed as capi- tal ships. These carry at least eight modern high-power big guns, and are able to steam twenty-one or more knots an hour. Of such ships Great Britain has forty-three, Germany twenty-six and Japan twelve. We have only twelve at present in service. Sea con- trol absolutely depends upon the pos- session of these ships. Our obsolete battle-ships, which carry four old type guns and steam only seventeen or eigh- teen knots, can in no way affect sea su- premacy. Such ships are useless ex- 139 THE WRITING ON THE WALL cept to a navy which already controls the ocean, in which case they are of serv- ice for patrol or blockade duty. The reason that capital ships are necessary to maintain sea control is ex- plained by the simple fact that in battle a ship having great speed and long- range guns can choose and maintain just that distance which will permit her to pound a smaller ship to pieces, while remaining herself outside the range of that enemy's less powerful guns. Although we possess some first-class, capital ships, in war time these would be almost hopelessly handicaped by our lack of proper auxiliaries. Four for- eign nations each own battle-cruisers which carry eight high-power guns and can steam more than thirty-one knots an hour. We have no battle-cruisers 140 THE NATION ON TRIAL either built or authorized. We have no scout cruisers less than ten years old. In the Battle of the North Sea the cruiser BlilcTier was sunk by the British because she could not exceed a speed of twenty-six knots an hour. We have no cruiser that can approach twenty-four. Although our navy list contains the names of sixty-two destroyers, a score of these were built fifteen years ago, and we have only three which can make more than thirty-one knots an hour. The enemy's battle-cruisers would run down the others as a wolf runs down sheep. Nine voters out of ten, however, are to-day fooled by clever sophistry like that of Mr. Daniels. This will, we trust, by November, 1916, no longer be the case, for even to-day thousands of men of prominence and power who less than a year ago were indifferent or op- 141 THE WRITING ON THE WALL posed to any increase of army or navy are to-day better informed and are join- ing the general cry for an adequate de- fense which shall be in proportion to our wealth and population, and num- bered with due regard to the dangers which now walk abroad. Six months ago any one who talked about a foe invading America was con- sidered sensational; to-day the majority of our most thoughtful, educated citi- zens are ready to accept the possibility of war, and are eager to make due prep- aration to prevent it. The reconstruction of our army and our navy, however, even though it is attempted with vast appropriations of money and countless numbers of men, will not of necessity give us an effective army or an efficient navy. All the wars in history have proved that it THE NATION ON TRIAL is always organization and discipline which win against numbers. At this moment preparation for defense has al- ready become in the minds of the ma- jority the one great national problem, the rational solution of which will in the next few years elect presidents, develop statesmen, and undermine many a pop- ular politician. Even now laggards are running to cover or hastening to enlist in the popular cause. In the early forties, my great-uncle, George Bradburn, the anti-slavery ora- tor, was often pelted with rotten eggs and cabbages because he spoke for abo- lition. On such occasions he used to cry: "Gentlemen, if you wish fame, join us now; to-morrow the cause will have grown popular, and even rascals will be with us. The mob will then cheer what they now hiss." It is the 143 THE WRITING ON THE WALL duty of our public men to interest them- selves in the question of national de- fense now while their help is all impor- tant; to-morrow all creation will cry, "Prepare!" It is not alone the politicians who must concern themselves in the matter, but the citizens of the nation. National defense is every man's business and every man's duty. The fatal mistakes that Congress has heretofore made in managing military affairs, and the reck- less waste of public funds voted for mil- itary equipment, would not have been possible if the public had taken greater personal interest in the army and navy and kept informed as to the use of na- tional appropriations. Our army costs one hundred times as much per man available for defensive duty as the Swiss army, and is far less efficient and less THE NATION ON TRIAL ready for emergencies. For this the nation is now on trial. If our present leaders will not make any of the basic moves which might lead to better things ; if they will not nation- alize the militia, if they will not quad- ruple the capacity of West Point, if they will not give the heads of the army and navy the privilege of the floor in the House and Senate, if they will not elim- inate strike duty for militia, if they will not abolish the forty useless and ex- pensive little army posts, which were es- tablished and are maintained for pork- barrel purposes, if they will not appoint proper ministers of war and marine, and, above all, if they persist in polit- ical subterfuges, then they must not be allowed to remain in power. They must be overwhelmingly defeated in 1916. That election will then be the 145 THE WRITING ON THE WALL first time since 1860 upon which has de- pended the fate of our nation. I am advised by legal authorities that Section Eight of the First Article of the Constitution, which empowers the National Congress to raise and support armies, gives Congress, by virtue of subsequent interpretations, all the au- thority necessary to institute in the United States the Swiss system of gen- eral compulsory service, or any other military system deemed necessary, without the delay of referring the mat- ter to the vote of the individual States. This fact has a most vital bearing on the fate of the United States. It sig- nifies that if one of the contending polit- ical parties, in the Presidential election of 1916, makes the question of ade- quate military preparedness its plat- form and wins a decisive victory, the 146 THE NATION ON TRIAL Congress then elected can within a few months pass all enactments necessary for the institution of general military service, adequate national defense, and valid peace insurance. As matters stand to-day, our nation is doomed to irretrievable disaster in its next war. No sacrifices made after the hour has struck will avail to save us. It is not upon the battle-fields of that war that our national existence is to be saved, but in the next Presidential cam- paign. Aux armes, citoyen^I Formez voa bataillons! CONCLUSION IT is not only the right but the duty of all able-bodied citizens to defend their native land. Modern warfare, however, is waged in a manner so intri- cate and so scientific that it is impossible for untrained individuals to help de- fend their country. Therefore mili- tary training should be universal. To be universal it must be compulsory. Therefore the United States should adopt a system of universal compulsory training. This system should be pat- terned upon those of Switzerland and Australia, since these have proved ade- quate without being unduly burden- some to citizens, and since they make 148 CONCLUSION provision for defense only and do not contemplate attacks upon neighbor- ing nations. Our system should be planned out by those of our country- men who have devoted their lives to the study and practice of military matters, and not by party politicians. 149 APPENDIX APPENDIX PUBLIC OPINION ON PREPAREDNESS IT was made clear to-day that the in- fluence of President Wilson and his Administration would be opposed to the proposal of Representative Augus- tus P. Gardner of Massachusetts for a public enquiry by a commission of Con- gress into the allegations that the naval and military forces of the United States were not prepared for war. Represen- tative Sherley of Kentucky, chairman of the Committee on Fortifications, will lead the opposition in the House of Representatives and it is already ap- parent that he will have the backing of 153 APPENDIX several of the Democratic leaders in that body. The President is understood to be of the opinion that no good can be accom- plished at this uncertain time by a sen- sational agitation of this topic. . . . the President . . . will be disposed to op- pose anything that savors of a propa- ganda to give the country the impres- sion that from a military and naval viewpoint the United States is in a bad way. New York Times, December 5, 1914- Representative Gardner's demand for a hearing on his resolution for an investigation into the military prepared- ness of the country was voted down to- day by the House Rules Committee by a straight party vote of five to three. All the Democrats voted against it. New York Times, December 13, 1914- 154 APPENDIX Mr. Gardner before the House Na- val Committee, December 10, declared that "if war were to break out to-day, it would be found that our coast de- fenses had not sufficient ammunition for an hour's fighting. 'We must depend in every time of national peril, upon citizenry trained and accustomed to arms,' says the President. "But how are we to get enough citi- zenry, as he calls us ordinary people? Does the President realize that there are only 120,000 militiamen in this whole nation? Does he understand that 23,000 of them did not even ap- pear last year for annual inspection? Does he know that 31,000 did not ap- pear at the annual encampment? Is he aware that 53,000, or nearly half of this citizenry, never appeared at the rifle 155 APPENDIX range during the whole course of last year? Where is this citizenry to get the weapons of war? According to the last report of the Chief of the Staff we are short 316 field guns and 1,322,384 rounds of ammunition necessary to equip our militia in time of war. Last year General Wood asked for enough guns and ammunition to bring the United States up to the standard of Bulgaria. That immodest demand was gently but firmly rejected. "The statement that we have only enough field artillery ammunition to last for a single day's battle if all our guns were engaged was made to me by one of the highest officers in the United States army. The Chief of the Staff tells us that the ammunition for the coast defense mortars would last one-half hour, and for the coast 156 APPENDIX defense guns three quarters of an hour." New York Times, December ll y 1914' Secretary Daniels, at a luncheon fol- lowing the launching of the U. S. ship Pennsylvania, said : "There never was a time when the navy was so powerful, so ready, so efficient, as now." Rear- Admiral Bradley Allen Fiske, Aid for Operations in the Navy De- partment. "Resigned" April, 1915. Previously he had made certain state- ments to the House Committee on Navy Affairs. These statements did not jibe with some previously made by Secretary Daniels. Among the remarks made by Admiral Fiske were the following ones : "I think it is well known that we are behind other nations in mines and air- 157 APPENDIX craft and that in case of an attack upon our coasts the need would be keenly felt. If we should become involved in war we might be attacked very quickly, pos- sibly in the vicinity of New York. "Every navy with the exception of our own has an organization that is thoroughly military. Every possible contingency has been carefully worked out and provided for, and the game of war is changed from time to time as conditions change. The Admiralties in charge of the navies of other countries keep them up to a stage of war at all times, and the general organization is as complete as the general organization of the individual ship. Every nation that has a navy, including Argentina, han- dles that branch of the service through a general staff, with the sole exception of the United States." 158 APPENDIX In answer to a question of Mr. Rob- erts : "Then if we have a war to-mor- row we must handle our navy in a hap- hazard way?'* he answered, "Yes, that is true." In answer to the question: "How near New York City would a hostile fleet have to come to use its aircraft in dropping bombs on that city?" he re- plied: "They could direct them from quite a distance out in the ocean, and I think they could probably send them in from four hundred to five hundred miles." Admiral Fiske further stated that it would take from three to five years to put the navy of the United States into serviceable condition. He said, "Twenty-one ships of our battle fleet and some destroyers are ef- ficiently manned, but there are not suf- 159 APPENDIX ficient officers and enlisted men to man our other ships. "The gunnery of other nations is su- perior to our own a very small differ- ence in gunnery might turn the tide of battle if we ever come in contact with an enemy. "We have one mine layer. We need five additional mine layers. On board that one mine layer are only three hun- dred and thirty-six mines. Germany had twenty thousand mines when the war started." In a supplementary written state- ment to the House Naval Committee to-day, Rear-Admiral Victor Blue, Chief of the Navigation Bureau, said the navy was suffering more from a 160 APPENDIX shortage of officers than from a short- age of men. "There are altogether 4565 men and 203 line officers short of the number nec- essary to man the vessels of military value which can be used in time of war," he said. "While there is little doubt that this demand would be met by the ex-service men now in civil life, confu- sion and delay would result unless or- ganization was perfected prior to the outbreak of the war. "A shortage of officers in the total re- quired is more serious than that of men. It will necessarily be several years be- fore the requirements can be met, as the supply of officers is regulated by the naval academy yearly output. From captain to admiral officers are being pro- moted at an age that will permit of very 161 APPENDIX little service in the latter grade before retirement. A board which has been considering these conditions is now pre- paring its report." New York Times, December 13, 1914- Captain Gardner of the navy has said: "The truth of the matter is that the United States navy instead of mak- ing any important advance is deteriorat- ing relatively compared with the navies of other nations. We lack scout sub- marines, aeroplanes and ammunitions. "Eighty fighting vessels of our mod- est navy are not available for battle." Admiral Dewey has said, "It cannot be too often repeated that ships without a trained personnel to man and fight them are useless for the purposes of war. The training needed for the purpose is long and arduous and cannot be done 162 APPENDIX after the outbreak of war. This must have been provided for long previous to the beginning of hostilities. Any ship of the fleet found at the outbreak of war without provision having been made for its manning by officers and men trained for the service can be. counted as only a useless mass of steel whose existence leads only to a false security." Secretary Daniels announces details of National Defense Program. President Wilson will urge Congress to adopt the five-year program of naval increase recommended by Secretary Daniels. Here are the new units, which it is proposed to add to the navy dur- ing that period: 163 APPENDIX 1917 1918 1919 19SO 1921 Total Battleships 2 2 2 2 2 10 Battle-cruisers 2 1 2 1 6 Scout-cruisers 3 1 2 2 2 10 Destroyers 15 10 5 10 10 50 Fleet submarines 5 4 2 2 2 15 Coast submarines ... 25 15 15 15 15 85 Gunboats 2 1 3 Hospital ship , 1 1 Ammunition ships ... 1 1 9 Fuel oil ships 1 1 2 Repair ship 1 1 Total 55 34 27 35 34 185 AUTHOR'S NOTE We have built twenty-five battle- ships in the last ten years. New York Times, October W, 1915. Claude Kitchin of North Carolina, floor leader of the House of Repre- sentatives gives reasons for his op- position to Wilsons program. "This sudden, radical, and stupen- dous move for war preparations is go- ing to shock the civilized world. The militarists and war traffickers of every nation will point to our conduct as a 164? APPENDIX reason why they should renew war preparations on a larger scale than ever before, on a scale limited only by the ability of the nations undertaking it. However our own people may remain in ignorance of the terrible seriousness of the preparedness program, every other country will feel convinced that in this tremendous self-imposed burden upon our resources we have other designs than mere self-defense. "They know, if our people do not, that our navy to-day is twice as large as Japan's, and that it is far superior to that of Germany. This is the absolute fact, and it is not to be lied away by such a false and deceitful publication as the 'Navy Year Book,' which is issued by our Navy Department, or by any statements of the so-called 'patriotic' de- fense leagues that are now playing the 165 APPENDIX game of the war traffickers and the peo- ple who want to make their millions by the sale of munitions to our Govern- ment. I cannot listen with any pa- tience whatever to this talk that we are unprepared, because I know from personal experience in Congress and by long study that this is not the case." New York Times, November 19, 1915. There was great rejoicing through- out the navy not long ago when it was announced that a sum approximately $2,000,000 was available from previous appropriations for the purchase of a modern vessel to supplant the hospital ship Solace which has long been recog- nized as hopelessly inadequate for the needs of our modern fleet. This rejoicing was short lived, for it 166 APPENDIX was learned that because of his great solicitude lest America should be sus- pected of war-like preparations, Secre- tary Bryan had vetoed the proposal and the plan to provide a properly equipped haven for the sick men in the service was abandoned. According to naval officers familiar with the circumstances, Secretary of the Navy Daniels was talking with Secre- tary of State Bryan when he happened to mention that the fleet was about to get a new hospital ship and that it would be paid for and equipped with money that was available from the savings of bureaus in the Navy Department. The Secretary of State frowned upon the proposal, promptly asserting that in his opinion it would be an unwise move to acquire such a vessel since to do so might create the impression that the United 167 APPENDIX States was preparing for trouble some- where. "General Boards of the navy have ad- vised, time and time again," a naval of- ficer said yesterday, "the construction of a hospital ship worthy of the service, but up to the present Congress has not seen fit to pass the legislation that would make possible this much needed addi- tion to the greatest of American fleets. "Immediately following the occupa- tion of Vera Cruz by naval forces under Admiral Fletcher last April, which cost the fleet nineteen lives and scores of wounded bluejackets and marines, the fact that the naval service was badly off so far as fleet hospital equipment was concerned, was brought home forcibly to the authorities of Washington. It was admitted on all sides that the situa- tion demanded immediate attention. 168 APPENDIX "Naval officers thereupon began to look about for a way to give the fleet a fit hospital ship. It was found that up- ward of $2,000,000 was available from previous naval appropriations which, under the law, could be used to purchase a modern liner, and that enough money would be left over to pay for the trans- formation of the liner from a passenger ship to a hospital ship. The proposal was submitted to Secretary of the Navy Daniels, and he approved it and told of- ficers to go ahead. Surgeon Theodore W. Richards, one of the best-known medical officers in the navy, was selected to superintend the conversion of the liner into a hospital ship, and he came to New York with approved plans in his possession. The ship selected was one of the best vessels of the Ward line." Now that the navy's dream of a 169 APPENDIX proper floating hospital has been shat- tered, the Solace, a ship of only 3300 tons, twenty years old, and very much the worse for wear, is being made ready so far as it is possible to do so, to ac- company the Atlantic Fleet on its an- nual winter exercises off Guantanamo. New York Times, January 11, 1915. "In the first place," said Mr. Daniels, "if we eliminate from consideration the three dreadnoughts authorized and the proceeds from the sale of the Missis- sippi and the Idaho to Greece we have a balance available from previous ap- propriations and the total to be ex- pended in building this year would be $44,091,000. We shall spend $5,000,- 000 more than we did last year. Now as to building dreadnoughts in case of emergency, it is the present policy to 170 APPENDIX equip the navy yards so that they can build battleships. The New York Yard is now prepared to carry on the building of two dreadnoughts at once. We are going to build submarines at the Portsmouth Yard and we can build va- rious auxiliaries at Philadelphia, Bos- ton, and Norfolk." "How many dreadnoughts," asked Mr. Butler, "could we build after we got into a war?" "The private yards that contract for battleships have a known capacity," said the Secretary. "The Cramps can build two at a time. The Newport News Shipbuilding Company could do the same, the Fore River Yard a like number, and the New York Ship Build- ing Company the same." Mr. Browning of New Jersey inter- rupted to say that the New York Ship 171 APPENDIX Building Company had three slips and could build three dreadnoughts at one time. Two of these slips, he said, were covered so that construction could pro- ceed more rapidly. "The New York Yard," continued the Secretary, "could build one ship cer- tainly and probably two. That would make ten ships that could be under con- struction in case of emergency. No yard on the Pacific coast could build even one battleship. Mare Island Yard is not fitted for it, and it would require dredging out the channel to make it possible there. At Bremerton, with some expenditure of money, prep- aration could be made for building a dreadnought, but that would be out of the question as an emergency measure. League Island at Philadelphia can now build a transport but it would be neces- 172 APPENDIX sary to enlarge the slip there to lay down a battleship. I hope to be able to recommend next year that the yard there be improved so a battleship can be built there. Under pressure it would appear we can build ten dreadnoughts at one time in the country." "How far can we depend on getting them built in time to use them in a war in which we might be engaged?" asked Mr. Roberts. "That all depends on the length of the war. If it was two years long we could not get them: if three we could/' replied the Secretary. Captain Winterhalter, the Secre- tary's aid for material, was asked his ideas as to the time it would take to com- plete dreadnoughts after a war began. He said that we should judge by what was going on in the British yards, which 173 APPENDIX were of a much greater capacity than ours. They were there getting out in two years what heretofore had taken three, and it was being done at an in- crease of $2,000,000 in the cost of each ship. He thought we might count on finishing ships laid down after a declara- tion of war in two years, the time usu- ally being thirty months. This in- cluded armor and armament. The guns could be produced in time for the finished ships. The whole matter would depend on organization and the force of workmen available. Coming to the subject of aviation for which branch of the service the gen- eral Board urges an appropriation of $5,000,000, Secretary Daniels said: "I appointed a board on aviation a year ago, and we went on and estab- lished an aviation school at Pensacola. 174 APPENDIX We have tried to get a good type of ma- chine, but so far have not succeeded. If I had $5,000,000 now I could not spend it. I think that if we get a suc- cessful aeroplane we shall have to build it ourselves. I would not now advise setting up a plant to do so, but we should have to provide a plant ulti- mately I think. All we need now we can spend under the appropriation of $300,000 provided in the allowances for the Bureaus of Construction and Re- pair and Steam Engineering. At pres- ent the money might better be spent in experimentation. Next winter we may be able to present a program." "Well, Mr. Secretary," said Mr. Roberts with an accent of irritation, "we have in all, in both services but twenty-three aeroplanes, and Great Britain has 1400 aeroplanes and 12 diri- 175 APPENDIX gibles; Germany has 1400 aeroplanes and 60 dirigibles; Russia has 1000 aero- planes and 20 dirigibles; France has 900 aeroplanes and 30 dirigibles; even Belgium has 60 aeroplanes. Austria has 600 aeroplanes and 8 dirigibles. There is no great hope we shall ever get what we need in this matter unless the department makes progress and is pushed from this end." New York Times, December 1%, 1914> General Wood said in December, 1914 before the House Military Com- mittee: "We have enough field guns for an army of 40,000 men and a sup- ply of field ammunition which would last one complete day." The concentration of our army on the Mexican border in 1911, required 176 APPENDIX ten days. The Germans mobilized 1,500,000 in seven days last August. There is not in the United States a sin- gle one of the heavy field mortars which has played such an important part in the European war. No provision has been made for am- munition trains. Major-General Leonard Wood's Ad- dress to members of Technology Club, Gramercy Park. "We have got to make a lot of offi- cers," said General Wood. "I do not think that the people realize how few we have. All told the number of line officers in the United States, and the figures include those of the National Guard as well as those of the regular army, do not total much more than 11,- 177 APPENDIX 000 men, whereas for an army of 1,000,- 000 men we would need at least 35,000." New York Times, October 28, 1915. J. H. Hammond, Jr. The peoples of Europe regard the general attitude in this country toward preparedness as one of the inexplicable results of the war, according to John Hays Hammond, Jr., who discussed last night the Ford peace ship and the duty of the United States in the present crisis. He has just returned from England and France, after spending two months there in conference with the naval and military authorities. "No one in Europe can understand how there can be the necessity for a campaign for preparedness here," he said. "They seem to think that the 178 APPENDIX calamity that has befallen England, France, and Russia should be sufficient argument to show the people here that preparedness is an absolute necessity of national existence. "The navies of England and Ger- many will be twice as strong at the end of next year, while that of the United States, even if the outlined plans are carried out, will only occupy the same relative position as it does now. Then there is the naval program being carried out by Japan. Their navy is being rapidly and greatly increased. All I can say is that it is significant to com- pare the programs of the United States and that country. "It seems needless to comment on the anti-preparedness or peace campaign being carried on by Henry Ford and Bryan. Two weeks at the front, any- 179 APPENDIX where in Europe two weeks in Eng- land or France would show them that their peace proposal is absurd. "The people of Europe are thinking of anything but peace, and I predict that Mr. Ford's peace ship and peace envoys will meet with a very frosty re- ception. The national spirits of the various countries of Europe have been aroused of Germany, as well as the Allies. There is no national spirit here, as the opposition to the prepared- ness campaign has shown. It seems as though only war will bring it out. "The war is regarded in Europe as the greatest argument for preparedness. France and England feel that if they had been prepared, the war would never have taken place. It was only their condition of comparative unarmedness that led Germany to make her attempt 180 APPENDIX at world power. They have learned their lesson well during the long months of the war and will never again be found unprepared. "I would not be surprised to see Henry Ford return here and become one of the most ardent advocates for preparedness. He is a very intelligent man and the lesson he will learn will show him that his present position is both unpatriotic and wrong." New York Times, November 26, 1915. Dr. John Grier Hibben, President Princeton. Twenty-first Lake Mo- honk Conference on National Arbi- tration in May, 1915. "I do not advocate preparedness for war," he said, "but a preparedness against war a preparedness which in the event of the catastrophe of war it- 181 APPENDIX self will prevent the enormous initial sacrifice of human lives which has char- acterized every war in which the United States has been engaged throughout our past history. "No one," he declared, "can be so blind regarding the significance of pres- ent conditions as to take the position that a grave national emergency is not at least a possibility. "I am not in sympathy with the peace propaganda which is being prosecuted in many of our schools, so far, at least, as it endeavors to quicken the peace sentiment by impressing upon the minds of the young children the horrors or the economical losses of war. . . . "By all means let us pay any price which can buy peace restraint of pas- sion, long sufferance, sacrifice of ma- terial wealth or of every personal con- 182 APPENDIX venience and comfort. Let us sacrifice it all, everything which can buy peace. But let us not forget that there are some things which cannot buy peace. If we sacrifice them in order to secure peace, the peace thus sought becomes for us the veriest torment of a living hell. We dare not trade honor for peace, we dare not betray duty in order that we may bargain for peace. We dare not indulge ourselves in the en- joyment of the blessings of peace while we turn deaf ears to the cry of distress or to the summons of a righteous cause." Never in the twenty-one years of its existence had the Lake Mohonk Con- ference heard such a call to arms. The Princeton president's appeal aroused intense interest and discussion among the more than two hundred delegates here from all parts of the country. 183 APPENDIX Roosevelt after reading Wilson anent the Lusitania. "There is such a thing as a man be- ing too proud to fight. There is such a thing as a nation being so right that it does not need to convince others by force that it is right." Asked if he cared to make any com- ment upon the speech of the President, Mr. Roosevelt said : "I think that China is entitled to draw all the comfort she can from this statement, and it would be well for the United States to ponder seriously what the effect upon China has been of man- aging her foreign affairs during the last fifteen years on theory thus enunciated. "If the United States is satisfied with occupying some time in the future the precise international position that China now occupies, then the United 184, APPENDIX States can afford to act on this theory. But it cannot act on this theory if it de- sires to retain or regain the position won for it by the men who fought un- der Washington and by the men who, in the days of Abraham Lincoln, wore the blue under Grant and the gray un- der Lee. . . ." New York Times, May 1, 1915. Rev. Dr. Malcolm James MacLeod, Collegiate Church of St. Nicholas, Forty-eighth Street. Thanksgiving Day Sermon on Preparedness. "I am sorry to confess that I am not an optimist in believing that world peace is not far away. The old prophets looked forward to a time when swords would be beaten into plow- shares, but 2500 years have passed and we seem to be a long way from it yet. 185 APPENDIX No military victory is going to bring it about. Nothing is going to bring it about but a change in the hearts of the people. "We hear much about the dangers of militarism. There is as much dan- ger of militarism in our country as there is of feudalism or the divine right of kings. Militarism is wicked. No true American wants it. But cowardly ac- quiescence in wrong is infinitely more wicked. It is possible for a nation to experience the loss of national self-re- spect. " I do not believe we should trust the safety of the institutions that we love to the kindness of heart of any sultan or czar or mikado, or king, or kaiser. We have read of shocking crimes dur- ing the year that would have made a black Hottentot blush ; helpless mothers 186 APPENDIX with their babies slaughtered; Ameri- can citizens drowned; the American flag treated with contempt; 800,000 Armenians exterminated. And what have we done to correct all these hor- rors? What are patience's limits? 'How long, O Lord, how long?' "I am a man of peace. I love peace ; but I have learned, too, that there are times when soft words have no weight. I believe in Christian meekness, but I think when you 're dealing with pagans Christian meekness is folderol. I be- lieve in nonresistance when my own in- terests are concerned, but I do not be- lieve in nonresistance when my family and my home are at stake. Then I be- lieve in vigorous resistance. If a bully abuses my child I 'm not too proud to fight, and I 'm not going to write him any letters. I want to thrash him. 187 APPENDIX Jesus used a scourge. We insure against fire, why not insure against the greatest calamity that ever cursed man- kind? The nation that refuses to safe- guard its homes and stand up for the poor and oppressed, or to champion the cause of righteousness and justice is not worthy of its liberty. It ought to be enslaved." New York Times, November 26, 1915. Plaza Dinner. Dr. I. lyenaga, Jap- anese Professor. The failure of Americans to under- stand the position of Japan in the Far East is likely to result in a more seri- ous situation than that caused by the "Japan-California controversy," Dr. I lyenaga, professor of history at the University of Chicago, told prominent Americans and Japanese at a dinner 188 APPENDIX given at the Hotel Plaza last night by Major George Haven Putnam, Charles A. Coffin, Lindsay Russell, and Emer- son McMillin. "After all the golden words for Ja- pan which I have heard from so many distinguished Americans," he said, "I don't know if it is right for me to speak bluntly, but the chairman has asked me to speak, and it would be discourteous of me to remain silent. Even at the height of the California-Japanese con- troversy, that affair appeared to me as less serious than the matter which has been before us in the past few weeks. Until Japan and America come to a better understanding and until Ameri- cans see and appreciate the position of Japan in the Far East, I am afraid that it will be a little more serious than at present. 189 APPENDIX "You know that Japan is only about one half the size of Texas and has a population about two thirds of that of the United States. Now what are we going to do ? How is our nation going to continue to exist in so small a terri- tory? We are advised to promote in- dustries and create wealth. We are doing that as well as we can, but our resources are limited." New York Times, May W, 1915. Professor Kirchwey would call World Council to draft new War Rules. Columbia's pacifists heard Prof. George W. Kirchwey and Prof. John W. Erskine plead against a rush to arms yesterday in Havemeyer Hall. The theme was the sinking of the Lusi- tania. Professor Kirchwey was applauded 190 APPENDIX when he declared he would never go to war for national honor. He said the questions arising out of the Lusitania were purely legal and he would have the President call a conference of all na- tions, whether neutral or at war, to draft a new code of war rules. "I am frank to say, and you may call me any kind of pacifist you wish," said Professor Kirchwey, "that I would never to go to war because the honor of the country was affronted any more than I would shoot a man who insulted me in the street. It might be that I might not kill him because I was re- strained and forced to count one hun- dred. America, even if her honor has been affronted, has had time to count and has no reason for going to war now. "My advice to the President would be: Don't be too fine or too stiff 191 APPENDIX about the rights of neutrals. Don't take an attitude from which you can't withdraw without war. I would make the American people count until they get over this bellicose feeling." New York Times, May 14, 1915. Nathan Straus addressing 2nd Conven- tion of Laymen s Efficiency League. "In the last analysis is there anything at all in this war but miserable, con- temptible brawl between the two big- gest powers? And is there any reason at all for this war except that there was no concert or community among na- tions sufficiently powerful to prevent it? "Now, the power to do this thing the power to prevent war can be achieved only by the most thorough preparedness on the part of the nations that want peace and order in the world. 192 APPENDIX This, I maintain, is the overwhelming reason why America should have a pow- erful navy and a strong army, and the thorough equipment essential to the ef- ficient use of this power. "We need preparedness not to fight battles, but to prevent battles being fought. We need preparedness, not to defend this nation against foes, but to compel and guarantee world peace. And America alone of all the nations is in the position to make such use of power as will curb and control the bick- ering, jealous nations that keep this world in such turmoil. "I deny emphatically that prepared- ness leads to war. I assert with deep conviction that thorough preparedness on the part of America will be the best guarantee that the world can have that there will be no more wars." APPENDIX "It is the duty of our Government, concentrated on the welfare of the United States, to make such prepara- tions and authorize such expenditures as will save us from the experience, the horrors inflicted upon the nations of Europe. "I believe in peace and that it can be permanent; to work for peace and to strive to keep it when at last we get it. That is our duty. To prepare this na- tion vigorously, fully, against war, so that no nation may think of attacking us that is our duty. And, blessed as we are among the nations, in peace, in prosperity, in safety, let us give gen- erously to the less fortunate, and prove ourselves worthy of peace and its blessings. That is, above all, our duty." New York Times, October 0, 1916. 194 APPENDIX Mr. Ford condemns War, blames Cap- italism. Asked if he did not believe that the sentiment for preparedness was spread- ing throughout the country, Mr. Ford admitted that it was, but insisted that it was "transitory and doomed to ulti- mate abandonment." "This growing cry, this cringing wail for preparedness is one of the most das- tardly influences ever at work in this na- tion," he said. "It is a snake that every clean, decent-thinking man should fight with every ounce of strength there is in him. "Do you want to know the cause of war the cause of murder in Europe, the cause that will bring war to Amer- ica if it ever comes? It is capitalism, greed, the dirty hunger for dollars. Take away the capitalist and you will 195 APPENDIX sweep war from the earth. Take it away to-day and the war in Europe will stop to-morrow. Take it away and the world will have seen the end of bar- barism." "Is n't that rather an inconsistent sentiment for you to express?" he was asked. "Are n't you yourself a million- aire, a man of whose wealth dominates other men; in short, a capitalist?" He smiled broadly, and then broke into a laugh. "My dear sir, the difference between me and a capitalist is that I earn my living honestly. I produce. . . ." New York Times, November 15, 1915. Henry Reuterdahl, "Metropolitan Magazine" December, "Arm or Sur- render." "Our patriotism is waning and drift- 196 APPENDIX ing away on the ebb tide of indifference, and as a nation our manhood is on the decline; national conscience we have not. No longer can an American hold up his head abroad. Our place in the world is that of a money bag. In Ger- many we are laughed at, despised as spineless weaklings; our money alone is feared. England thinks we are cow- ards, and American life a commodity which can be paid for in cash. The French shrug their shoulders. . . ." Invasion by an European power he regards as ridiculously easy. "Right before our very eyes," he says, "our navy and army have de- teriorated. So far, no one cares. It has been demonstrated and proved be- yond argument that the American navy is not strong enough to maintain the command of the sea and uphold the 197 APPENDIX Monroe Doctrine. With the Ameri- can fleet swept off the sea, the enemy's invasion on our soil becomes but a mat- ter of steamer schedule. Twice this has been done in the war games of our own fleet. "The army cannot defend all its forts," he continues. "It has no auto- mobiles to transport all its baggage ; its shoes are for the parade ground and will wear out under two months' march- ing; it has nineteen motor ambulances for its wounded. Its supply system cannot stand the strain of war, but will break down as it did during the Span- ish war. It is without ammunition trains, armored automobiles, armored railroad trains, heavy mortars for field work, has ammunition but for a couple of days' battle and with less than one hour's supply for coast defense guns, 198 APPENDIX and has not sufficient field artillery. The mobile army in the continental United States is but a little larger than twice the New York police force, and its reserve counts some sixteen men. It masters ten aeroplanes, all of which cannot fly. "Practically all the great rifles for coast defense are from the design of the Ordnance Department, and their dis- appearing carriages are the invention of the present bureau chief. Many are obsolete, and the carriages of the heavy guns have to be remodeled. They per- mit only a limited degree of elevation and through faulty design good guns are rendered inferior in range to those of the enemy's ships. For want of foresight the bureau placed this handi- cap on every large-calibered, direct- firing gun of our coast defense from 199 APPENDIX Maine to California. The pieces are now useless against the latest super- dreadnoughts until this handicap is re- moved. "The inefficiency settled upon the army by Congress and the army's un- preparedness for war is visualized by the hopeless and pathetic state of its Aviation Corps. America is the land of the aeroplane. Here it was born, but the army has now but ten machines one fell recently in the sea and killed its aviator. Our loss in aviators has proportionately been almost as heavy as in flying corps of the great armies now engaged in war. "The American army is trained to travel on a pillow. Soldiers must go to maneuvers in a tourist sleeper, of- ficers in Pullmans. At least that is our peace method. To the Texas ma- 200 APPENDIX noeuvers a regiment was ordered from Indianapolis. It could have pulled out in six hours, reaching its destination in thirty, traveling in box cars as in France and Germany. But this regi- ment had to wait three days for tourist sleepers. The orders to move came in February; not until four months later did the force reach its maximum strength, but without regiment of light artillery, ambulances, field hospitals, engineers, and signal force. No am- munition nor adequate supply trains nor transports existed, and these regiments never reached proper war strength. 'What are you going to do about it?' To which I answer, Trust the army, chuck politics sky high, again put the fear of God in Congress, kill the graft of the useless army posts, do away 201 APPENDIX with the bureau system, and let the fighting army run its own show, accord- ing to the lines laid down by the Gen- eral Staff. They are trained for it; Congress is not. Establish a Council of National Defense so that the army may be represented on the floor of Con- gress and the demands and opinions of the efficient soldier may be heard throughout the land. Give it a budget system as exists in every country where defense means something. "Military training must be gen- eral. It is no hardship to the youth of Switzerland or Australia. Why should it be to ours? On the other hand, it will make a better man of him, teach obedience, strengthen his undisci- plined character, and there will be less use for slums and less need of reforma- tories. The day of the small, highly 202 APPENDIX trained army is past. A small army is a useless expense it will not prevent attack, and when attacks come, it can- not resist. War demands every unit of a nation even down to the humblest baker. The fighting line is but the edge of the knife ; the steel behind it is represented by the resources of the na- tion expended with fullest unity." HERALD BUREAU, No. 1,502 H STREET, N. W., WASHINGTON, D. C., Sunday. Senator Key Pittman, of Nevada, newly chosen democratic member of the Committee on Naval Affairs, au- thorizes the Herald to announce to-day that his attitude toward national pre- paredness for war has undergone a complete change as a result of careful study of conditions which brought 203 APPENDIX about the conflict now in progress in Europe. When he came to the Senate three years ago Senator Pittman believed that all disputes could be settled by a court of arbitration, and he was there- fore opposed to heavy armament for the United States. He has now come to the conclusion that "peaceful settle- ment of differences between nations is impossible so long as such nations are suspicious and distrustful of the mo- tives, honor and integrity of each other." Senator Pittman is therefore con- vinced that the United States should have a powerful navy to prevent war. IS INVOLVED COMMERCIALLY "The United States," said Senator Pittman, "while not involved in the APPENDIX European war, is involved both politi- cally and commercially by the war, and always will be so involved by great European or Asiatic wars. I believe that the prosperity of the people of the country in every walk of life and the progress of the government are abso- lutely dependent upon the maintenance of American principles and the protec- tion of American citizens and Ameri- can commerce in every part of the world. I have far less fear of an inva- sion of this country than I have of the destruction of the lives of American citizens and American commerce. I am not an advocate of a large standing army. "It is astounding that so many of our citizens do not realize that the destruc- tion of our foreign commerce would bring upon our country a most dis- 205 APPENDIX astrous calamity that would extend to every industry and every walk of life. The prosperity of this country depends upon its ability to market its surplus products abroad. Deprive us of that power for one year and the factories would close, the mines shut down, the farms grow up in weeds, our vast ranges, now stocked with fattening herds of cattle and horses, would be abandoned, mortgages would be fore- closed without means to satisfy and a fifth of our population would be de- prived of the means of earning a liveli- hood. And yet it is within the power of a foreign nation or a group of foreign nations to bring upon us such a calam- ity, and who can say, in the light of present events, that no nation or group of nations would have the desire to ac- complish such a purpose? 206 APPENDIX "In my opinion the only way that such an eventuality would be prevented is by the United States possessing a sufficient navy to make such an act too dangerous to any foreign Power or group of Powers. "When I came to the Senate I was a strong believer in the creation of an in- ternational tribunal for the settling of all international disputes. The prin- ciples enunciated at The Hague espe- cially appealed to me. As principles I still believe that they are correct, but experience has conclusively demon- strated that they can only be enforced and maintained by sufficient force. "Any tribunal of arbitration will be controlled by some combinations of Powers. Would any of the warring nations trust their disputes to a court controlled by their enemies? If so, 207 APPENDIX why not trust their disputes to their enemies without a court? Would the Teutons submit the questions involved in the present war to a court controlled by the Allies, or would the Allies sub- mit the questions to a court controlled by the Teutons? Would the United States submit the maintenance of the Monroe Doctrine to a court controlled by European and Asiatic Powers? To suppose such conditions is absurd. "Possession of a powerful navy by the United States, in my opinion, does not mean war, but means prevention of war. "I have little patience with considera- tions of economy when the vital ques- tion of the life and peace and happiness of our people is involved." New York Herald, January 3, 1916. 208 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY Los Angeles This book is DUE on the last date stamped below. Form L9-25m-9,'47(A5618)444 THE 7 OF r -\UFORN1A LOS ANG1 S UC SOUTHERN REGIONAL LIBRARY FACILITY A 000 690 962 6 UA23 W849w