UC-NRLF * B 1?5 flit .; /■ » 'i'r '-' : ; 1 '??. ■«-' ,V:V : ^ ji'U'i'-- • .; ' ■:/_: \i'\i n ^&**7^-Z^t^*^l THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESENTED BY PROF. CHARLES A. KOFOID AND MRS. PRUDENCE W. KOFOID Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2007 with funding from Microsoft Corporation http://www.archive.org/details/fewthoughtsoncotnOObrowrich A FEW THOUGHTS COMMISSION, DIVISIONS OF PROFIT, SELECTION OF LIVES, THE MORTALITY IN INDIA, AND OTHER. SUBJECTS RELATING TO LIFE ASSURANCE, CONTAINED IN A SERIES OF LETTERS RECENTLY PUBLISHED IN THE POST MAGAZINE, UNDER THE SIGNATURE OF " CRITO." BY SAMUEL BROWN, F.I.A. LONDON : W. S. D. PATEMAN, WINE OFFICE COURT, FLEET STREET, 1849. B7f, PREFACE. The following letters were originally forwarded to the Post Magazine, (a useful periodical, containing the reports of Life Assurance Companies, and other information interesting to assurers), as the different subjects happened to be brought before the mind of the writer by accidental discussion, or in the course of business. He has been induced to revise them for republication, from the conviction that some of the facts and figures will be found useful for future reference, and that it would be more convenient to have them collected together rather than to search for them, as scattered through the pages of a magazine. The rates of Life Assurance premium for foreign risks are still in a very unsatisfactory condition, and many years must elapse before any information, that can be depended upon, will be available for the different companies. In fact, it is doubtful whether any, which can be considered of real value to the offices, will be gathered except from their own experience, collected from as many as are willing to furnish the facts, and combined for the purpose of affording a sufficient number for classification, according to the different climates. In the meantime, however, what is already known may serve as a foundation for more extensive enquiries, or at any rate for additional means of comparing and correcting the results. The letters respecting the mortality in India, therefore, are intended to bring into one point of view such information as has been already given to the public on this subject, and by a general summary of the facts, reduced to one standard of comparison, direct attention to the deficiencies, which still remain to be supplied. These observations form but a very small division of a most extensive and interesting enquiry, to which the attention of the statist can scarcely be more usefully and practically directed. M372609 11 PREFACE. Another topic, in which a greater portion of the public as well as the offices are interested, is the effect of the Selection of Lives for assurance on the future divisions of profit. The facts examined will probably lead to the con- clusion in the mind of the reader, that a much larger reserve should be made for future years than it is usual to set aside for this purpose, even if the premiums were not so closely calculated for the early experience only of the companies, as they will, in many cases, be found. But when, besides the future fulfilment of engagements contracted, "we consider the confident anticipation of every assurer that he shall receive at each division of profit at least as large an amount as he obtained before, and the suspicious anxiety with which he regards any falling off in the share allotted to him, we see additional reason for urging caution, where it is so easy to commit an error and so difficult to retrieve it. These notions may be considered excess of prudence. No doubt amongst the number of Life Assurance companies, which have, within a few years., started into being, there must be many individuals, whose attention is occupied in enquiries similar to those which are touched upon in these pages, and some of whom may be disposed to give them- selves with ardour to the newest opinions which are entertained, as being the results of the latest experience, and who would look upon those which are the most popular to be the most correct. Without stopping to enquire into the soundness of this decision, it is fair to assume that they are all actuated by a sincere desire to ascertain the truth, what- ever it may be, and that they will not at once throw aside views, which may differ from those which they find generally received, till they have at least soberly reflected whether there may not be some reason even in opinions, at present but little in fashion. This candour and deliberation of judgment are more especially required on subjects, with regard to which so few collections of facts, which can be relied on, have yet been made ; and in which so much caution and TREFACE. Ill experience are necessary to deduce the conclusions to be derived from them. It must not be forgotten that in form- ing the rates of premium for Life Assurance from insufficient data, or in dividing profits on a presumed great improvement in human life from the experience of a young society, the errors of the original assumption, if there be any, may continue undetected, till in later years there may be no choice between ruin to the shareholders or the insecurity of the assured. To those readers, therefore, who are disposed to reconsider the conclusions at present arrived at, the writer of these pages ventures to appeal for a candid examination of the few facts, relating to the experience of the societies, which he lays before them. There is too much reason to fear that many of the schemes and modifications of Life Assurance in the present day, have been introduced rather by the ardour or the pressure of competition, than by the sober judgment to choose ouly what will, in the end, be mutually beneficial to the companies and the assured ; that the large amount paid away in commission from the savings of assurers, is an unnecessary waste to themselves, and a loss to their families, which they will some day discover and regret; that the opinion which prevails of the great diminution in the rate of mortality, supposed to be found throughout all the ages of assured lives, arises from the want of due reflection on what will probably be the results, when tables deduced from the experience of a few years only, or, as in the case of the Equitable Society, from that of an office carrying on an extensive business at a time when a large proportion of assurances were made for short periods, and under circum- stances very different from those now existing, come to be tested by more complete series of observations hereafter ; that a great proportion of the profits, which were formerly gained by Life Assurance companies, have now ceased to be realised, either from a reduction in the rate of interest, or less frequent forfeiture of policies, or too great diminution IV PREFACE. of premiums, or from more expensive modes of obtaining business ; and, lastly, that considering the great prevalence of the Proprietary over the Mutual system, the public have not reflected sufficiently on the cost at which they are buying the advantages, which the former are presumed to hold out to them over the latter. Of these topics some are interesting to parties who are engaged in the management of companies, and others are of importance to the public generally, who are already beginning to understand that their interests are concerned in their becoming better acquainted with the data, essential to the safety and prosperity of enterprises, in which so large a portion of their savings is invested. These several particulars, it is true, could be but slightly touched upon in so small a space, but the reflection of the reader may fill up the sketch, and the opinions expressed, being con- trary to those now so generally in favour, may, perhaps, on that account alone, secure the attention of some who would otherwise pass them over as undeserving of notice. The author believes that it is no less important to the companies themselves, that the public should moderate their expectations of receiving the large profits, to which they have been so led or have so habituated themselves to look, as the necessary result of joining a society for the assurance of life. If even one great instance of failure in the accom- plishment of these promises or in the fulfilment of these expectations should occur, the consequences might be disastrous in the extreme, and should the perusal of these letters induce a single actuary to re-examine the collections of facts, on which the great reduction in the rate of premiums is now so generally recommended ; or a single assurer to form a more sober and correct estimate of the future advantages, on which he is unfortunately too ready to speculate, these humble efforts to add a trifle to the general stock of information on a subject so engrossing, will not be unproductive of good. TABLE OF CONTENTS. PAGE. On Commission on Life Assurances . . . 1 On the Division of Profits in Life Assurance Companies . . 8 On the effect of Selection of Lives in Life Assurance Companies, Letter 1. . . . . . . 15 Ditto continued, Letter 2. . . .29 On the Mortality in India : Letter 1. — European Officers and Civilians . . . 42 Letter 2. — European and Native Troops, Bengal and Madras Pre- sidencies . . . . .55 Letter 3. ,, The Tenasserim Provinces and Ceylon 71 Letter 4. „ Bombay Presidency . . 83 On the Capital of Life Assurance Companies, Letter 1. . .92 Ditto continued, Letter 2. . . . 97 On Approximations to the Values of Annuities on Joint Lives, Letter 1. 107 Ditto continued, Letter 2. . . .119 ON COMMISSION ON LIFE ASSURANCES. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — The subject of Commission paid by Assurance Companies for the purpose of increasing their business, or, as many are led to believe, for the more patriotic motive of extending the benefit of assurance to the unreflecting public, is forcing itself daily more on our notice. If it be argued, that Commission is not offered in the shape of a bribe, since the members of an honourable profession would scorn the base insinuation, for what purpose is the induce- ment so constantly held out ; more especially by the new companies to whom the accession of business is of the most importance ? Do the offices combine together for the purpose of voluntarily reducing their premiums, or insisting on rewarding the agents for their public spirit and patriotic feelings in thus promoting a great national object ? or is it not rather notoriously the fact, that, either by private or public arrangement, some of the companies continually step ahead of their fellows and hold out the gilded attraction in a still more glittering light. We hear of one office which has advanced from the sober steady five per cent, to an increase of five per cent, more for the first year, and of another which offers 35 per cent, on the first year's premium only, and though a very simple calcula- tion will show us that, at the average age at which parties assure, £5 per cent, per annum is worth more by any Standard Tables of Annuity, than seven years' purchase — (perhaps double this value would be under the mark) — and consequently that the former is a much better bargain for the uncalculating, unselfish adviser than the latter ; yet the assertion which we have made above, that the* temptation must be increased or varied so as to present a more attractive shape, seems fully proved. Where is all this to end ? If the companies are continually to underbid each other, the limit will only be reached where the agents obtain the highest, and the assurers the lowest amount of profit at which the company can exist. What is to be done next ? Like a competitor, who has run himself out of breath, the company, and its circle of paid supporters will, with mutual vexation, observe their more vigorous opponents pass them in the race, and will stand with regret to watch others with greater strength of purse, overtake them in the rush for professional or public favour. In the meantime, who pays the expenses of this lively contest ? It is clear there are but two parties on whom it is possible they can fall — the proprietors and the assured. Let us enquire what proportion of the burthen the former are likely to bear, and we shall then see the benefit which the latter obtain from a system, which many patronise, perhaps, without a thought that they are personal sufferers by it. In a strictly proprietary office, where the assured are guaranteed a given sum, and all the profits are to accumulate for the benefit of the trading body, the expenses must all be paid by the proprietors, and the party already assured is not prejudiced in the bargain, which he has made with them, by any plan that may be adopted, either to increase the number of assurances or enhance the profit derived from them. It is simply for the con- sideration of the Directors whether the profit on the extra number of policies brought in by the agents, pays the expenses of the commission allowed. It would indeed be an ill-managed concern (especially where both examples and warnings exist for their guidance), in which the average profit of the assurances, during the existence of the Society, did not amount to five per cent. Consequently, whatever business could be introduced by agents receiving commission, would produce an advantage to the pro- prietors, and would justify the Directors in maintaining the system of commission to the utmost extent to which it would yield profit. In this case, therefore, the assurer is no sufferer, but at the same time he is no gainer by a well-fee'd agency. But, in an office partly mutual and partly proprietary, new considerations arise. Let us assume that in a company in which the profits are distributed in the proportion of one-third to the proprietors, and two-thirds to the assured, a certain amount of assurances is effected liable to the deduction of five per cent, on the premiums, or what is the same in effect to a reduction of that proportion, which five per cent, bears to the whole of the profit, which these assurances might have produced, had no commission been allowed. The proprietors will find their Funds increased by one-third of the remaining proportion of the profits accumulating from these particular assurances, whilst two-thirds of the, profits thus reduced will be distributed amongst the whole body of assurers, increased by the members to whom these policies belong. As without the payment to the agents they would have divided two-thirds of the entire profits, they consequently partake only in surplus accumula- tions, diminished in proportion as either the commission or the share of profits secured to the proprietor is increased. Let us suppose a simple case. A person at the age of 40 is brought by an agent to assure his life in an office, using the Northampton Table, and dividing one-third of the profits to the proprietors, and two-thirds to the assured. Let us assume the sum to be assured, £5000, and to simplify the matter, that the assurer pays down a single premium of £2692 2s. If the whole profits on this assurance were A0 per cent., they would amount to £807 12s. 7d. equal to a sum (payable when the policy becomes a claim) of £1500, of which the proprietary body would receive £500, and the assured himself £1000. But if five per cent, commission be paid to the agent, at the time of effecting the assurance, he would receive £134 12s., equivalent to a policy of £250, by which amount the total profits would be reduced. The proprietors would con- sequently receive on the death, only £416 13s. 4d., instead of £500, and the assured only £833 6s. 8d., instead of £1000; but the former would wholly gain their share, whilst the latter would lose £166 13s. 4d. The conclusion is inevitable, that whilst the proprietary body, by the system of paid agency, are enabled to accumulate and divide continually increasing gains, it must be at the expense of the assurers generally, who must either be the dupes or the willing victims of their more acute or interested advisers. If, in a partly proprietary office, the general body of assurers suffer for the increased advantage of a few ; in a purely mutual office they sacrifice the whole sum paid away in commission, unless it can be shown that first — some extraordinary advantage arises from the increase of numbers, though a priori each member is supposed only to produce the profits which he receives back ; or, secondly, what is a more common case, that there arc some classes b 2 in the society, sharing in peculiar advantages at the expense of less favoured individuals, and who, by the payment of commission from the common fund, charge the deduction to others, and take the profits to themselves. If the whole body of assurers partook equally of all the profits, it requires no great stretch of under- standing to perceive that a deduction of five per cent, from all the premiums must be equivalent to a deduction of l-20th part of the common accumulations ; or, if the premiums were only calculated to pay the claims, and no more, it would be tantamount to the office being unable to meet its liabilities, since in every instance in which the directors had guaranteed to pay £5000, they would only have accumulated £4750. The increase in the number of assurers produced by the commission would only magnify the evil, and the larger the temptation offered, the greater would be the diminution of the funds. ;^It may be asked then, "In a purely mutual office would paid agency be always against the interest of the company ?" We should be disposed to answer, that the assurers, by common consent, may be justified in spending their own money in any way agreeable to their mutual inclination ; as for instance, if they were to set apart five per cent, of the premiums for the purpose of enjoying a social feast, as was formeily no uncommon rule in the proposed schemes of Benefit Societies, but that the payment of the same sum for commission would in any way tend to the benefit of the company, would be inexplicable, unless an addition of numbers was required for the purpose of security, and to diminish the fluctuations which, in the early stage of every mutual society, might hazard its credit, if not its existence. How far the members of a mutual office, recently established, but the premiums of which are calculated so as to afford a reasonable expectation of future profit, would be acting wisely in depriving themselves of distant accumulations for the purpose of strengthening their present position, and confining within narrower limits, the risks of mortality, at a time when a few extra claims beyond the calculated average might affect their still precarious existence, is a mere point of commercial speculation which the directors, and others best qualified to judge, may be fairly presumed capable of deciding upon. But the continuance in such a course, even if proved at first to be expedient, cannot add to the surplus wealth of the company, nor does it alter the conclusion we have arrived at in the preceding paragraphs, that for a mutual society to indulge in the luxury of paid agency is a voluntary diminution of their own profits for the benefit of a class who can have no other than a mercenary interest in their success, and who are likely to desert their first choice whenever a greater boon is offered by a competing board. It has been suggested, that the expenses of management do not increase in proportion to the number of members, and con- sequently that, in a mutual office, it would be desirable to pay five per cent, commission to induce the admission of fresh members, and thus diminish the proportion of expenses by spreading them over a larger number of contributors. But this would only be profitable, where the expenses already exceed in per-centage on the premiums the per-centage proposed to be given in commission. If the former were less than five per cent, (and it is presumed that only in the early history of a society could any such proportion be required), it would but add to the expenses to bring in additional members by paying commission out of the existing funds of the office, or would diminish the profits, if paid exclusively out of the premiums of the new assurers. It is a point, too, worthy of long consideration, whether the members of a society would not feel it incumbent upon them to exert themselves to introduce their own friends, without other fee or reward than that of strengthening the company, in which they are interested themselves, and profess to be the best adapted for their friends also, rather than depend upon a system, the effect of which, however it may be intended for a good object, is to act as a bribe, and few will deny that bribery, under whatever name it may be concealed, is both vicious in principle and indefensible in practice. It is a system which it is easy to introduce, but from which we, as yet, know no instance of a society extricating itself. These are some of the principal objections to the practice. We may refer to another, which we have heard made, but to which, it is fair to state, that we cannot attach much importance ; that as the agents are more interested in the quantity than in the quality of the goods supplied, if we may use such a term, the offices might suffer materially by the introduction of bad lives. If directors generally were so eager for the increase of their society as 6 to forget its permanent safety, so anxious to display, in glowing colours, the rapidity of its early success as to keep out of view its future prosperity, such an objection would not only be tenable, but, even to the eye of the most thoughtless, would so peril their own property, and interests, that the reaction would soon destroy the system, in spite of the most influential support it could receive from the parties interested in its continuance. But we are willing to believe that the directors, even of the most alluring offices, are desirous to maintain their own credit, and to do their duty to the proprietors, and the assured, and that no worse lives find admit- tance into their companies than the few that may be reasonably expected to slip in, in the general scramble for new assurances. It would take longer time and larger space than you can probably spare in your valuable little periodical, to touch upon many other points which this important subject offers for enquiry, but perhaps, at some other time the opportunity may be afforded of resuming it. To our mind, the general conclusion is, that the system of paid agency is one, which many of its warmest supporters would never have adopted, if they had not been urged on by the pressure from without, and of which they would gladly get rid, provided others could be forced into the same abandonment. I remain, Sir, your obedient Servant, London, October 14th, 1847. CRITO. ON THE DIVISION OF PROFITS IN LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANIES. To the Editor of the Post Magazine. Sib, — It has frequently been assumed, that the members of a Life Assurance Company are scarcely qualified to understand the mathematical reasonings, by which the affairs of the Society are proved to be in a prosperous condition. If these important ques- tions are complicated, as we fear is sometimes the case, in order to present a flourishing account where it might be impolitic to expose the real condition of the company ; the clear understanding of the members may occasionally be perverted by the false arguments, or puzzled by the ingenuity of the parties intent on deceiving them. We believe, nevertheless, that in ordinary cases, an appeal to the common-sense of well educated Englishmen, accompanied by sufficient explanation to lay the case clearly before them, will in general serve more effectually to maintain the real interests of the society, than any attempts to impose on their credulity, or to take advantage of their ignorance. It is true, that, on some occasions propositions have emanated from general courts, which would imply either a lamentable want of knowledge of the consequences, which, if carried, they would produce, or a too keen perception of the eager desire of gain, by which so many are actuated, and of the lengths to which this uncontrollable passion sometimes carries its unfortunate possessors. Such was the resolution, gravely proposed by a member of the General Court of the Equitable Society, even so recently as the year 1826, as mentioned in Mr. Morgan's "View of the Rise and Progress of the Equitable Society," to divide a million of the surplus, without ascertaining what that surplus might be. But this Company had the advantage of the unusual talents and ability of their actuary, Mr. Morgan, who, by his lucid addresses and the natural influence of a superior mind, backed by the support and strong sense of the majority of the members, saved the com- pany from extremities to which it may be feared others, which are not benefitted by such restraining powers, may some day be re- duced. Other methods of obtaining unusual advantages have from time to time been invented, and, amongst others, the very obvious one of assuming for a Division of Profits a different Table for the valuation of policies from that, by which all the other calculations of the Society are made. We have heard that this proposition is even now being pressed by some of the members in a company, whose affairs are still under discussion. The specious proposal is the more dangerous, as, being concealed under a veil of mathema- tical reasoning, the assurers may be induced to believe that in its adoption they pass the limits neither of justice to themselves nor safety to the company. The question, however, is not whether assuming a certain rate of interest and a certain table of mortality the calculations are correct; but whether these assumptions them- selves are right in principle. The subject is one of general interest, and though it will be impossible in the short space to which we must be restricted, with due regard to your other valuable commu- nications, to touch upon many of the important reflections to which it leads, we will endeavour generally to point out what we believe to be both the injustice and the impolicy of such a measure. In any Life Assurance Company there are but two sources from which profit can be derived ; first, that the premiums have been improved at a higher rate of interest than that which formed the basis for their original calculation ; and secondly, that the number of deaths in the society has been actually less than was estimated by the Table of Mortality, from which the premiums were formed. Profits, under whatever head they may be concealed, must spring from one or the other of these variations from the original assump- tion. As all the new offices have had the benefit of the experience of those companies, which, at an early period, undertook what then appeared the great risk of an untried enterprize, none would have been justified in starting with insufficient premiums; and, conse- quently, all have been presumed to obtain a considerable share of profits, even from their earliest establishment, unless, indeed, the amalgamations, which are occasionally used for puffing in the public papers, disguise a disagreeable truth under the profession of advantage to the assured. Various means have been adopted to increase that portion of the profits, which may be obtained from the premiums, by laying them out on mortgages at a higher rate of interest than was originally expected ; by buying in the funds at a cheaper rate and on the day of division assuming them to be worth their increased value, if they have any, by taking advantage of the depressed state of railway debentures, by loans on personal security, or the security of policies, all of which at present we dismiss with the warning, that, as a general rule, where greater gain can be ac- quired than is to be secured in the Public Funds, it must be with an increased risk of loss, since public bodies move slowly, and are not so adapted to take advantage of the slight and frequent changes which the single individual, intent on his own interest, is so quick to seize. We turn to that portion of the profits which arises from the rate of mortality amongst the members of the company being found less than was computed. The first question that suggests itself is : — Is this a permanent source of profit ? Unfortunately for the company, the answer must be in the negative. The selection of lives would tend to bring together a body of individuals in a higher state of health, and consequently exhibiting a less mortality 9 at any given age for some years after selection, than would be ex- perienced in the general mass of the nation. Whilst, therefore, all men's expectations have been excited, and their desire for gain stimulated by the auspicious commencement, at each succeeding division this source of profit will be diminished, till at last the balance will be entirely on the other side. The surviving members, who have been too sanguine in their hopes, and have divided amongst themselves and their deceased co- partners, the provision which ought to have been made for a mortality, which must necessarily increase with the age of the office, will, with reluctance, have to refund part of their too early acquired gains ; or what will be equally detrimental to the success of the company, fall back for assistance on the proprietary body, where any such exists. These may justly feel disposed to cavil at any appeal which they may assert has been brought on by measures which ought never to have been proposed ; and contend, with more than a show of reason, that they cannot guarantee assurers against the consequences of their own imprudence. They may perhaps have shared in the spoil ; but all experience tends to prove that men will take whatever the follies or thoughtlessness of others may place at their disposal ; but will only give back what the law (not always a wise remedy for the aggrieved party) compels. We admit the temptation is strong. The advantage is immediate — the danger distant. But we contend, that the greater part of the societies have not yet existed long enough to know the perils they incur. Out of 108 companies, enumerated in the Post Magazine Almanack for last year, no less than 36 have been formed within the last ten years. Only 7 have existed more than 50 years, and of these some have but recently adopted the business of assurance on lives. Even the Equitable Society, which has, under the care of its able actuary, Mr. Morgan, published the valuable results of its experience, proves that, with all the skill and anxiety of the Directors in the selection of lives, the mortality beyond the age of 60 approaches very close to and in some years even exceeds that by the Northampton Table from which their premiums are calculated. The mortality in the Amicable Society, as exhibited in the important tables prepared by the Registrar, Mr. Galloway, and printed for the c 10 use of the members in 1841, in every age beyond 40, exceeds that in the Equitable Society, and between the ages of 65 and 80 is even greater than that in the Northampton Tables. Extracts are subjoined of two Tables, the first showing the mean duration of life at the age of 40 and upwards, and the second showing the number of deaths, which take place within ten years, out of ten thousand persons who have completed the age stated in the margin. It should be explained that Table A of the Experience of the Equitable Society, shows the duration of all Lives assured in the So- ciety from September, 1762, to January 1st, 1829 ; and that Table B includes the Lives of chose persons only who have become members between those periods, and have either continued their assurances to the latter date, or died in the intervening time. The latter would approximate to the Experience of a Society where few of the policies are forfeited or surrendered. Table III. of the Experience of the Amicable Society comprises only those members who were living on the 5th day of April, 1808, the mortality amongst whom is traced down to the 5th day of April, 1841, separately from that amongst the members admitted since the former date. Table IV. of the Experience of the Amicable Society exhibits the decrements of life amongst the two classes united. These two tables, therefore, form a valuable contribution, as showing the effect of the selection of lives on the experience of a Society, — a subject which will be treated of more fully in the next letter. TABLE I. Showing the mean duration of Life at the respective Ages in the Margin, according to different Tables of Mortality. Age. Equitable Experience, Table A. Equitable Experience, Table B. Amicable Experience. Table IV. Amicable Experience, Table III. Northampton Carlisle. 40 27.4 25.6 259 — 23.1 27.6 50 20.4 19.4 19 18.2 18. 21.1 60 13.9 13.5 12.9 12.5 13.2 14.3 70 8.7 8.7 8.1 8. 8.6 9.2 80 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.5 11 TABLE II. Showing, according to different Tables of Mortality, the Number of Deaths which take place within Ten Years, out of 10,000 persons who have com- pleted the Ages stated in the Margin. Equitable, Amicable, Age. Total Experience. Total Experience. Northampton Carlisle. 40 1175 1291 2140 1336 50 1921 2209 2867 1715 60 3562 4069 3955 3409 70 6111 6638 6193 6031 80 9043 8868 9019 8510 It should be observed, that, whilst the number of deaths on which these calculations were founded was 5144 in the Equitable, it was only 1 792 in the Amicable Society ; and that of the latter number 798 were those of members who entered since January, 1808, and consequently when, from comparatively recent selection, the lives may be supposed better than ordinary. In both societies the next ten years may be expected to produce still more important results. What is the inference from these, perhaps to some parties, startling and unexpected facts ? Certainly we have no wish to deny that, in the early periods of a society's existence, the experience and carefulness of the Directors may bring together a class of men who one with another may enjoy a greater longevity than the ordinary mass of mankind, and that, during this period, a certain increase of profits will be accumulated, which, with a fair allowance for the future, may enter into the present estimation of profits ; but even the vigilance of the most careful Board may be deceived,where self-interest, that powerful spring of action, is on the other side, and it yet remains to be proved what may be the effect hereafter, when the numerous societies lately sprung up have brought their combined, and what in some cases we fear may prove fatal experience to bear upon a subject, the more important because it is indefinitely deferred. " If we could look into the womb of time, and say which seeds will grow and which will not," this objection might appear futile ; but till then we must deem it serious enough to check the hasty decision of those who consider the life-time of a society as the mere repetition of its infancy, and forget that c 2 12 companies, like men, are subject to decay, and that if their strength is prematurely taxed, the earlier the inevitable fate will advance. We pass on to another objection perhaps equally serious ; that by a division on this mode of valuation, all future profits from this source are cut off. The minds of men are progressive and so are their desires and expectations. Companies must either retrograde or advance. They cannot remain stationary, and the advocates of an immediate division of all the profits that can be realized may defeat the object of their own prudence and forbearance, by check- ing the growth of a society from which their children may obtain nothing because they themselves have already eaten the fruit before it was ripe. To illustrate this subject we subjoin the following comparison of the value of £10,000 assured, assuming, as is suffi- cient for our purpose, and as we believe is nearly the truth in most societies, that the average age of effecting an assurance is about 40 years, the premium being calculated according to the Northampton Table at 3 per cent., and a year's premium supposed to be just due. TABLE III. Showing the Value of Policies made at the Age of 40, after different periods of existence. After Years. Age. Northampton. Equitable, Mr. Morgan's Table. See llise and Trogress. Carlisle 3 per Cent. Carlisle 3g per cent. 10 20 30 50 60 70 e or Sur- 1,522 3,199 5,119 860 344 3,154 2,749 5,120 4,874 134 2,501 4,638 Differenc plus . . 9,840 9,134 j 7,967 1 706 1,873 7,273 2,567 9,840 9,840 9,840 9,840 Let us assume that an individual possessed three policies, which having been severally made at the age of 40, according to the Northampton Rates, have existed respectively 10, 20, and 30 years, and that he was prepared to value the same by different Tables, and pay over the surplus to the party assured. By filling up the intervals of ages with other policies, at all ages and periods of assurance, computed in the same way, the supposition may be 13 extended to an office and its division of profits. By the first column will be seen the true value which will just afford payment of the claims, provided the actual deaths exactly correspond with the sup- posed mortality. But if the mortality should be discovered to be the same as that according to the experience of the Equitable Society, a surplus of £706 on these three policies might be handed over to the assurer without failing in the engagement to pay the claims ; provided the experience thus assumed was not disproved by a subsequent collection of facts. By assuming for the valuation the Carlisle Table at 3 and 3^ per cent, a nominal surplus of £1,873, and £2,567, in each case respectively might be created ; but if, in spite of this assumption, the mortality continued the same even as in the Equitable Society, a positive deficit would arise in the for- mer case of £1,167, in the latter of £1,861, which the party who had agreed to distribute the surplus thus artificially created, would have to pay out of his own resources, and this on the present value of the three policies, amounting in the former case to £7,967, in the latter to £7,273. This is a large proportion, and let us reflect what would be the consequence to a company if the same system were carried out on an extensive scale. If the mortality remained exactly as computed by the experience already acquired ; the society could offer no further additions from this source to the end of life. The only method to produce a surplus at each successive division, would then be to assume a Table still more favourable to longevity than at the preceding period. But at what expense these nominal accumulations would be made, the diminution of the capital would soon and fatally show. These may perhaps be considered extreme cases ; but what member would be satisfied with having already spent his additions ? and what would be his opinion of the society where no more were to be obtained ? Both the considerations already suggested deserve close attention. Other objections pre- sent themselves on which we have not space to enlarge. In the valuation of the Policies in the Equitable Society, which were printed for the use of the members in 1829, calculated by the Northampton Table and the Equitable Experience, the difference produced between the two valuations was no less than £700,000 on assurances, and additions amounting to nearly £14,800,000 ; but with this singular anomaly, that all the assurances under the exist- 14 ing age of 37 were not only worth nothing, but even after all the premiums which had been paid, £60,708 according to the latter mode of valuation, was still due by the members to the society ; whilst, by the valuation according to the Northampton Table, the Society would have allowed nearly £176,000 for the surrender of these policies. Is it to be believed, that members of any company, immediately after a division, in case they should wish to dispose of their policies, would be prepared to receive the value, which, for a special purpose, they had just voted them to be worth. We fear not, for in this case, some members, as stated above, would actually have to pay instead of receive. But if not, what society could stand the test of public opinion which on one day should diminish the value of the policies to increase the surplus, and on the next day diminish the surplus reserved to increase the value of the policies ? Let us again suppose that a policy, by some unfavourable chance not entitled to share in the division, had been mortgaged for its full value, according to the usual mathematical rules. On the day of division, the stroke of an actuary's pen is to reduce this policy below its marketable value ; make it, in fact, less than the security it was before, in order to afford a larger profit to more fortunate members ; and the next day, with strange elasticity, it is to resume its former value, and swell once again to its late numerical worth. All this, by its absurdity, renders further comment superfluous. These observations have reference only to a society which has ascertained by a careful and skilful investigation, its own experience ; and is reasoning on the propriety of assuming these past results as the measure of its future prospects. But we fear they would have but little weight with those members of a company, where this experience has never been ascertained ; who, in place of it, should choose to assume a fanciful table which may be safe or not, accord- ing as the experience of the society, when discovered, may confirm or not the conclusions arrived at. This is not an imaginary case. If once this relaxation of fixed principles is to be allowed, we can- not see where it is to be arrested. The same liberality of mind, which imagines a more favourable rate of mortality, may imagine also a more favourable rate of interest, and these two elements of ideal profit being once established, we know not where the hungry expectants would stop short of leaving as the future lot 15 of the company a feeble and dwindling existence, or dividing amongst the living the laborious savings which were to form the heritage of their children after their death. I am, Sir, Your obedient Servant, London, 20th October, 1847. CRITO. ON THE EFFECT OF SELECTION OF LIVES IN LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANIES. Letter 1. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — The subject of my last letter naturally led to some reflections on the effect of a careful selection of lives for Assurance, and the results which such selection might be expected to exhibit in a table of mortality formed from the experience of any office, when compared, either with the table, from which the premiums were calculated, or any other standard tables of mortality. This is a very important subject, though it is one on which, perhaps, no definite idea is formed by the assuring public ; and as it is to this class that I have been anxious, through the pages of your useful and interesting periodical, to address the few observations on sub- jects so intimately connected with their interests, which have appeared in your last few numbers, I hope not to appear treading on professional ground, in bringing together and briefly examining the facts which have been already collected. To the greater part of assurers, it appears that all assurance companies must at least flourish. They seem to differ only in the rapidity with which profits may be realised, or in the agreeable variety of modes in which they offer to return them to the happy individual, who has been so privileged as to entrust his own or his children's fortune in hands so qualified to improve it. All the present is tinged with a " couleur de rose ;" and even the future presents a shadowy and indefinite outline of prosperity, which looms the grander in propor- tion to its distance. If, by the dull appeal to facts, it should be our lot to sober down the ardent imagination of some, who are revelling in these aerial dreams, we shall not less deserve their approbation, should they be thereby better prepared for the disap- pointment which may ensue, if they should be amongst the number 16 who live to feel it. It is not, however, from any desire to excite alarm or unfounded apprehension that we would controul the nights of a too free imagination, but simply to appeal from fancy to reason, and by it, to encourage such moderate hopes as may reasonably be expected to be fulfilled ; and, as the whole theory of life assurance is supposed to be deduced from the observations of facts, to enquire how far those, which have been already collected, warrant the lively anticipations of future and increasing profit, which some, perhaps, promise without believing : and many believe, — too willing to be deceived. It has long been noticed, that the mortality amongst assurers and annuitants presented a striking contrast with the tables, from which the premiums were deduced : yet scarcely any attempts have been made to trace the cause of the discrepancy. It was generally sup- posed, that the more refined habits of society, the application of increased medical skill, and the paternal anxiety of government for the people, evinced or intended to be evinced in measures for the cleansing and ventilation of large towns, had so improved the public health since the formation of these useful institutions, that they shared in advantages which they had not reckoned upon on their first establishment. A few only suspected that the diminished mortality might have arisen from causes, the influence of which would cease with the increased age of the society, when the publi- cation of the valuable collection of facts, which the liberality of the Members and Directors of the Equitable Society, and the skill and practical knowledge of its talented actuary, Mr. Morgan, placed within reach of the public, proved the truth of the supposition. It is to the form in which these important facts were presented, that we are indebted for the means of making the comparisons which we have now to examine ; and which, though the groundwork of many elaborate calculations, are so simply arranged, that the results may be easily made clear to the most ordinary capacity. This novel and very useful contribution to the science of Life Assurance has been since followed by the Amicable Society, and the results of their experience have been exhibited in the same form, under the care and revision of their able registrar, Mr. Galloway. These are the two important collections of facts from which it is proposed to deduce the conclusions on the subject of this letter ; since both 17 being arranged on the same plan, and representing the mortality amongst persons who have been assured, they are the best adapted for comparison one with the other. Since then, however, another very valuable collection has been formed from the combined ex- perience of 17 Life Assurance Companies, and prepared and printed under the superintendence of a committee of actuaries, who deserve the thanks of the community for giving up their valuable time, skill, and labour, to advance what may be con- sidered as a great national object, rather than the private enterprise of a few commercial companies. It will be more con- venient to reserve the consideration of this latter publication for another letter, since the results being founded on the obser- vations of policies and not of persons assured, it will require separate attention, and more space than can be allotted in a single letter. The Tables of Mortality, according to the experience of the Equitable Society, extend from the commencement in September, 1762, to the 1st January, 1829. The total number of lives assured was 21,398, of whom 6,930 were living on the 1st January, 1829; 9,324 had ceased to be members of the society by the surrender, the forfeiture, or the discontinuance of their last policy; and 5,144 had died. The total number of persons assured had apparently enjoyed amongst them 266,872 years of life ; but, assuming that one with another, those who discontinued their policies had ceased to be members, some at the beginning and some at the close of the year, half the number may be reckoned to have remained the whole of the last year of their membership. This correction being made, the assurers had been members of the society for an average term of 12 and a quarter years. The annual mortality had been 1-96 per cent. Mr. Morgan, in his introduction to the Tables, first pointed out the effect of the selection of lives, at different ages, and has presented us with a Table, showing the mortality amongst members who had attained to the same age, but who had entered, respectively, at 5, 10, 15, &c, years previously, and which classes had been kept distinct for the purpose of affording this comparison. An extract from this Table is subjoined, as showing the effect of care in the selection of lives ; but for greater convenience for D comparison hereafter, portion per cent. : — 18 I have reduced the mortality to the pro- TABLE I. Showing the Mortality per cent, between Quinquennial periods of age, out of 100 persons existing at each period, and admitted respectively at intervals preceding, increasing by five years. Between the Ages of Rate of Mor- tality on all 0n7G2per- sonsAssured On743per- sonsAssured On 615 per- sons Assured On 470 per- sons Assured On 321 per- sonsAssured pel sons taken at the Age at the Age at the Age at the Age at the Age collectively. of 30. of 35. of 40. of 45. of 50. 30 35 .77 .70 35 40 1.05 1.12 1.09 40 45 1.14 1.39 1 27 1.08 45 50 1.35 1.72 1.45 1.22 1.09 50 55 1.89 2.04 1.75 1.72 1.79 55 60 2.50 2.94 3.70 2. 2.44 60 65 3.33 4.76 4.35 3.85 3.85 3.57 This Table alone would suffice to show that a considerable differ- ence exists between the mortality of members, who have only been recently admitted, and those who have been members of the Society for any considerable period, even though both classes should be taken at the same average age. Thus it will be noticed, that the mortality between 45 and 50 years of age amongst persons only just admitted at the age of 45, was only 1.09 per cent. ; and that there was an increase of mortality at the same ages for every additional five years since admission, till it is found that amongst those who had been admitted at the average age of 30, or had been members of the society for 15 years, a mortality is exhibited of 1.72 per cent, between the same ages as the above. The average mortality of all the members combined, whether recently or long admitted, be- tween the same ages, may be seen to be 1.35 per cent. It follows, that in a society newly established, where 135 deaths had been reckoned upon between the ages 45 and 50, and on taking a valua- tion in the first five years, it was discovered that only 109 deaths had actually occurred, if the directors or members, who had not looked on the subject in the light which it is here presented, should insist upon a division of all the funds which had been accumulated to pay this difference in the number of the claims, they would be acting against the interests and future stability of the company. For how would they be able to meet the claims arising from the increased mortality between the same ages after 15 years existence, 19 which we see, (if it agreed with the experience of the Equitable Society), would be as high as 172 deaths? This, be it observed, is on the supposition that the general average of mortality in the society exactly corresponded with that which had been previously considered probable. The differences are somewhat irregular, probably in consequence of the paucity in the number of observa- tions at each age ; but the general tendency of selection cannot be mistaken, and it is universally found, that if the mortality in the first few years be less, it increases very rapidly after a short period. Thus in examining the above Table, the following results will be noticed : — TABLE II. Showing the Increase of Mortality, according to years of Membership in 100 persons living between the Ages in the margin. After 5 Years' Membership. " 10 " M ii i 5 u II " 30 " " Many interesting comparisons might be made of the Tables de- rived from the Experience of the Equitable Society with those previously existing, or some which have been since published, but the only point of view in which we regard them at present, is, as they are the only Tables, with the exception of those of the Amicable Society, which give warning of the mischief which would arise to a young society, if the great diminution of mortality which is sure to be noticed in the first few years, (with ordinary care in the selection of the lives,) should be considered as a permanent source of profit, and no provision made for rapidly increasing claims at the same ages in future years. This point must be most carefully distin- guished from the expected increase of claims which arises from the advancing age of the members. These are duly provided for by the premiums, where they are adequate in the first instance, and properly improved afterwards. The distinction is most important. Another mode of showing the increasing risks of a society from the increase of claims at the same ages, when the influence of selection has diminished with the length of membership, will be D 2 20 by examining a short Table of the Mean Duration of the lives assured : — TABLE III. Showing the Expectation of Life in the Equitable Society according to duration of Membership. By Table A., including all the Lives assured. Of Lives admitted respectively between the Ages of Ages. 25—35 35—45 45—55 55—65 30 40 50 60 70 34.53 27.40 20.36 13.91 8.70 32.96 25.49 18.56 12.50 7.78 27.37 20.11 13.67 8.48 20.26 13.93 8.83 14.36 8.62 This Table may be considered as a rough approximation to the number of future annual premiums, which one with another the assured existing at the given ages in the margin, would pay to the society, and on inspection it will be found to be fewer at the same ages, as they hare been members of the society for a longer period. The ages between which they entered, may on an average be roughly estimated to be 2J years before the mean age of each class ; thus those of the class from ages 25 to 35, whose expectation is given at the age of 30, may be supposed to have become members at the mean age of 2 7 J, and of the class between 35 and 45 at the mean age of 3 7 J, &c. Let us compare the mean duration of the lives at the age of 60 ; then of those who may be considered as recently admitted, say about 2J years, the number of payments to be expected from each would be on an average 14|, of those who had been members for ten years longer, not quite 14, of those who had been members for twenty years longer, about 13f, and of those who had been members for thirty years longer, only 12J payments. This explanation is but placing in a different light the same subject which we have before considered ; but a totally different arrange- ment of the materials and a different combination of ages lead to the same result, and so far confirm both the view already taken, and the practical usefulness of the observations, from which these conclu- sions have been formed. The Tables of Mortality deduced from the Experience of the Ami- cable Society were printed for the use of the members in 1841. They are divided into three Tables ; the first showing the duration 21 of lives of members, assured for the whole term of life, from the beginning of 1808 to April 5th, 1841, and none of whom have con- sequently been members of the society for more than 33 years. The total number who had entered in this class was 3,530 ; of whom 2,227 were living on the 5th of April, 1841 ; 505 had dis- continued their assurances ; and 798 had died. The total number of years of life enjoyed by these members in the society was appa- rently 40,135 ; but the members having been added at the time of making their assurance, and not, as in the Equitable Society, at the end of the year, half the number living, as well as half the number who discontinued, must be deducted from this number to show the actual years of life passed over in the society, and their term of membership was consequently eleven years. When compared with the membership in the Equitable twelve and a quarter years, this appears a very large proportion, considering that the observations of the former extend over 67 years, and of the latter only 33 years. By a glance at the following comparison, however, the discrepancy will be explained by the number of persons who have ceased to be members by discontinuing their policies, having been in the former society three times as numerous as they are in the latter ; whilst the proportion of deaths is very nearly equal. Entered. Living at Date of Observation. Discontinued. Died. Equitable 100 32-4 Amicable 100 63 43-6 14-4 24 22'6 This comparison, though slight in itself, forms a serious subject for reflection, since it leaves the impression, that, either one of the causes which led to a more favourable rate of mortality in the Equitable, namely, the number of assurances existing only over a short period after selection, was greatly reduced ; or that some causes have tended rather to accelerate than retard the increase of mortality in the more recent division of the Amicable Society. The average mortality per annum in this class has been 2*06 per cent. As the Equitable Society, from its longer duration, must have comprised a much greater number of old lives, and the average mortality in 67 years was only 196 per cent, per annum, as we have seen, it is evident that the mortality in the Amicable Society is much higher in proportion than even these numbers would indi- 22 cate. On this Table Mr. Galloway remarks, " with respect to the series of members admitted since 1808, it is to be observed that it consists entirely of selected lives, that is to say, of persons who at the time of their admission were all apparently free from disease, and that by far the greater part of those who passed through the younger ages, had lived only a few years in the society, or had been recently selected. The mortality might therefore be expected a priori to be favourable in general, and particularly so in early life ; and this is found to be the case, for on inspecting the different columns of Table V., the Amicable Table II. will be seen to belong to the class of Tables, which give the longest mean duration. From the age 25 to 35 it gives nearly the same mean duration as the Equitable Experience, beginning in fact a little higher ; but it is proper to remark, that from the very small number of persons who passed through the ages under 35 (to say nothing of the recentness of their admission), the Amicable Table possesses little weight at those ages. From 40 to 75 it gives the mean duration of life about half a year less than the Equitable Table. Above the last age, it again becomes uncertain from the insufficiency of the data." Table I. of the Experience of the Amicable Society, a description of which is given above, comprising the last 33 years only, may be considered as giving a fair view of far the greater part of companies now existing, presuming that the eagerness of competition or other cir- cumstances have not tended to induce a less careful selection of members. In the same valuable collection, however, we may examine another Table, which exhibits the experience of a company which has long since ceased to introduce new members. This is a position, to which a society will gradually be reduced, if the new members admitted are not sufficient to fill up the vacancies formed by death or discontinuance. By this Table, from the age of 45 to 51 the mean duration of life little exceeds that by the Northampton Table, and from that age continues less to the age of 80, after which it again a little exceeds the Northampton to the last age of life. This Table represents the mortality experienced amongst 1088 mem- bers who were living on the 5th April, 1808, of which number, more than half were above the age of 57, -when the observations commenced, and the same proportion had been at that time mem- bers of the Society more than 1 1 years. Mr. Galloway observes, 23 that the results of this Table present a striking accordance with the mortality exhibited amongst the male inhabitants of towns in Bel- gium, computed by Mr. De Morgan, from the observations of M. Quetelet ; an agreement which he considers might reasonably be expected on account of the similarity of circumstances. The num- ber of persons who were existing on the 5th April, 1808, was 1088; of whom 64 were living on the 5th April, 1841 ; 30 had discon- tinued their assurances ; and 994 died. PROPORTION PER CENT. Entered. Living at Date of Observation. 1 -Discontinued. Died. 100 5-9 2-7 91'4 In comparing the actual numbers, Table I. Amicable with that of the Equitable Experience, a small allowance must be made on account of the number living in the former, being deduced from the exact ages on entering the society; whilst the lives in the Equitable Society are not taken to account till an average of half-a- year after admission. It follows that the age of 40 in the summary in Table II. of the observations given in Table I. of the Amicable Experience, really represents the mortality at 39j ; and, consequently, in comparison with the Equitable, and other tables, should exhibit a slight difference at the same ages, even were the rate of mortality the same. In Table III., however, the ages correspond exactly. Half the number discontinued, (as before,) and, from the different construction of the Table, the whole number living, must be deducted from the number existing at each age, to give the true number exposed to the risk of mortality in the ensuing year. With this correction, the duration of member- ship of these 1088 persons had been 14-1 years since 1808. The average mortality in this class had been 6*04 per cent, per annum since the same date. Table IV. of the Amicable Experience shows the probabilities and mean duration of life, resulting from the com- bination of the data in the other two Tables. It may be considered as representing the mortality in a company, the numbers of which are stationary, or one in which the old and young members exist in such relative proportion as may be maintained by the constant admission of new members to supply the places, which become vacant by death or the discontinuance of the last policy. It shows 24 a mean duration of life at nearly all ages less than that of the Equitable Society, especially between the ages 40 to 60 ; and above the age of 55 to near 80 less than that of the Northampton Table. Having in my last letter presented a comparison of the mean duration of life, and of the number of deaths which occur within ten years, out of 10,000 persons at each decade of ages from 40 to 80, according to the Equitable, the Amicable, and the Northampton Tables, it will only be necessary at present to make a comparison of the separate classes of ages in the Equitable Society, and of the separate Tables in the Amicable Society. The latter exhibit also the effect of selection, by showing the difference in mortality between lives admitted within the last 33 years, and those, which, having been selected before that time, have remained unmixed with the new members since. The data are perhaps too few to afford any useful results by a similar division into classes of ages, as that of the Equitable Society. TABLE IV. Showing the Annual Number of Deaths in Decennial periods of age, out of 10,000 persons, living at each age, and at different dates from admission, according to the Equitable and Amicable Experience, compared with the Northampton Table. Ages. EQUITABLE EXPERIENCE. Lives I Lives admitted admitted between I between the Ages 'the Ages 25&3S. 35&45 30to40 868 40 "50 1405 50 " 60 2568 60 "70 5160 70 "80 11940 1158 2120 4463 8831 Lives admitted between the Aafes 45&55. 2155 4411 8533 Lives admitted between 55 & s: 3881 9343 AMICABLE EXPERIENCE. rable I Since 1808. 748 1209 2175 4601 10397 Table III. previous to 1808. 2799 5456 10499 Total Experi- ence, Equi- table. 928 1243 2111 4304 8994 Com- bined Ex peri ence, Amica- ble. 767 1374 2465 5081 10314 North- ampton. 1858 2379 3321 4907 9188 The portion of this Table, relating to the division of the members of the Equitable Society into different classes, according to their ages of admission, is deduced from the Tables given by the Com- mittee of Actuaries (in the valuable collection of observations which it is proposed to consider in the next letter). The mortality amongst these classes is in accordance with the actual facts, without any adjustment to produce a more regular gradation of the risks. It will consequently be found to vary irregularly at different ages and periods from admission ; but still to bear out the con- 25 elusions we have arrived at as to the effect of the selection of lives. The remainder of the Table is derived from the observations in the two societies, as they have been corrected for general use. The Tables of the Experience of the Equitable Society as thus cir- culated for the use of the members, were introduced to the notice of the public generally in a valuable paper published, by Mr. Edmonds , in the Lancet, October 21, 1837, in which he has printed various Tables showing the gradual increase of mortality in years from admis- sion, and other Tables, exhibiting the effect of selection, and insti- tuting a comparison between the results and his own theoretical tables of "Village" and "Mean" mortality. The object which Mr. Edmonds has in view, is to use these observations and those of the Amicable Society in support of a theory of a constant increase in the rate of mortality for every year of age, first proposed by Mr. Gompertz in 1825, and a similar notion to which Mr. Edmonds worked out in a series of Theoretical Tables in 1832, and which, in several valuable papers since, he has examined and compared with the additional observations, as they have been published, or with such as he could himself give to the world. In this paper, Mr. Edmonds has made his computation on the average age of making assurance in- stead of the age on the 1st of January in the following year, from which time only (according to the note in Mr. Morgan's introduc- tion,) the new members are added to the number already existing at their then age, and which will consequently on an average be half- a-year older than that reckoned by Mr. Edmonds. But this error has been corrected and the calculations recast in another paper by Mr. Edmonds in the Lancet of 17th September, 1842; and both these articles may well be compared together. In estimating the rate of mortality, Mr. Edmonds does not take merely the proportion of deaths to those existing at the beginning of any year of age, but adds to the latter half the number of deaths, and half the number who were living at that age at the date when the observations ter- minated, as well as half the number who ceased to be members between that age and the beginning of the next. This shows the increased rate of mortality from year to year, and enables him the better to compare the results of actual experience with his hypo- 26 thetical table, but reduces the facts or a table framed from them to an inconvenient form for ordinary use. In comparing the two papers, it must be borne in mind that the results in the first paper, owing to the mistake explained, always correspond with an age half a year older than that stated in the margin. The Experience of the Amicable Society is likewise compared with that of the Equitable, and from both Mr. Edmonds draws what he considers to be very strong corroborative evidence in support of his theory of the rate of mortality. He concludes, that the mortality in the Amicable Society, amongst persons who have not been members for more than five years, when compared with that amongst persons of a longer duration of membership, is as 2 to 3 nearly at all ages, whilst in the Equitable Society, in the same divisions of classes, it is as 3 to 4. Mr. Edmonds refers to differing statements made by Mr. Galloway and the Government calculator, the latter stating that the mortality between the ages of 35 and 50 does not increase with the age ; and the former that it increases 6 per cent, for each year of age in the same interval, and he comes to the conclusion " that the truth lies exactly halfway between these contradictory state- ments, the true rate of increase between those ages being 3 per cent, for each year of age ;" — which is his theory of the rate of mortality generally. This theory may be thus shortly explained ; that there are three distinctly marked periods of human life, one from birth to about 8 years, when the mortality decreases 32^ per cent, annually. A second from the age of about 12 to 55, when the rate of mortality increases 3 per cent, per annum ; and lastly, from 55 and upwards, when it increases 8 per cent, per annum. In the comparison which he draws between the Equitable and Amicable Experience, he 'considers that both these Tables mark the third period as commencing at the age of 52, and therefore com- pares his Table of Village Mortality at the age of 55, with that of 52 by the tables of the two societies, and every other age in the same manner with the one three years older in his Village Table. With this correction the Amicable Tables agree very closely with his for fifty successive years. He considers that the Equitable Table also changes at the age of 52 ; but corresponds with the Village Table of two years older, and that the mortality in the 27 Fquitable Society is at almost every age 8 per cent, higher than in the Amicable Society. As both these observations disagree with the theory in showing an increase of mortality at 52 instead of 55 years, Mr. Edmonds explains that he had been already disposed to predict that the limit was receding in a much greater degree than the infancy limit would be found receding, but as he does not re- gard the retrocession of the limit to be applicable to all classes, he deems this circumstance to be in favour of the use of his Theoretical Tables by Assurance companies. Unless, however, Mr. Edmonds believes that the experience of other assurance companies will be found different from the two now under review, it would appear that what has been already recorded would rather tend to the con- trary effect ; for if the change to an increased mortality takes place at an earlier age, it is evident that a table of premiums, exactly proportioned to the risk by the Theoretical Tables changing from 3 to 8 per cent, at the age of 55, would be inadequate to meet a mortality, which increases in the same manner at the age of 52. This discussion, however, places the subject of these observations in a very interesting light; and it is but just to show how nearly the Tables, corrected as I have explained, will be found to agree with the hypothesis. The reader is referred for more full information to Mr. Edmonds* valuable papers quoted above. It may be as well to state that Mr. Galloway has finally adjusted or corrected the logarithms, which represent the probability of living over a year, by the formula proposed by Mr. Gompertz, using for Table III., which comprises only the members existing on 5th April, 1808, one set of constants from age 45 to 93, and for Table IV., which includes also the new members since that date, one set of constants from age 24 to 68, and another from age 68 to 93. Before and after the period of change, therefore, the same regularity (though not with the same rate of increase,) ought to be observed as in Mr. Edmonds' table. I have given the mor- tality from the Amicable Table III., in order to show the difference from Mr. Edmonds' hypothesis. Mr. Edmonds contends that his corrections deviate less from the actual facts observed, either by the Equitable or Amicable Tables. As they have been arranged, they certainly produce results which very remarkably coincide with his theory. £ 2 28 TABLE V. Showing according to the duration of membership the mortality in five years, by the Equitable and Amicable Experience, out of 100 persons living at the age stated in the margin. AMICABLE EXPERIENCE to 1811. EQUITABLE EXPERIENCE to 1829. Since 1808, Term of Mem- bership. Amongst Members. Years of Membership. Ages. Under 5 years. Above 5 years- Table III lefore 1808 actual facts Previous to 1808. Since 1808. |to5£ sjtoisj Above I5^years Total. 30 3.65 3.32 3.21 4.67 3.79 35 4.83 4.21 5.04 5.39 5.23 40 4.07 6.27 5.66 4.65 5.86 7.77 5.62 45 4.36 7.80 8.05 8.14 6.86 5.67 6.59 8.32 6.72 50 5.43 8.98 11.13 12.76 9.04 8.98 8.99 10.53 9.48 55 8.52 13.46 15.31 13.17 12.58 10.30 11.99 13.53 12.32 60 13.88 18.17 20.82 22.39 19.78 11.59 15.78 18.34 16.52 65 14.25 25.97 27.99 26. 25.12 19.98 23.89 25.61 24.55 70 34.14 37.84 38.15 37.01 31.56 34.41 33.76 75 48.29 47.77 48.14 48.51 47.33 45.44 45.61 80 51.74 59.89 66.18 64.31 52.85 52.85 85 72.36 73.10 74.93 68.58 68.58 TABLE VI. Showing the number of persons at the ages stated in the margin, relative to 1000 surviving at age 55, according to the Equitable and A.micable Experience, compared with Mr. Edmonds' Theoretical Table of Village Mortality. AMICABLE EXPERIENCE. EQUITABLE EXPERIENCE. Ages. Facts observed. Village Table 3 years older. i i Facts observed. Village Table 2 years older. 30 1,409 1,427 35 1,344 1,355 40 1,294 1,289 1,270 1,276 45 1,207 1,200 1,191 1,191 50 1,112 1,105 1,106 1,099 55 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,000 60 866 865 872 875 65 689 700 721 719 70 510 513 541 539 75 320 325 358 353 80 166 166 195 190 85 59 62 92 76 Mr. Edmonds contends, that in all Tables, the average increase of mortality is 33 per cent, for every ten years up to the age of 55 ; but, from the inspection of the above Table, it will appear that in all the selected classes the rate of increase is considerably greater in the same period, arising from the mortality commencing at a lower 29 but advancing to a higher rate than in ordinary Tables. This fact strengthens the suspicion, with which, in most societies, the distri- bution of large and sometimes advertising profits so soon after their establishment, ought to be regarded ; and inculcates the necessity, in all cases, of never dividing without a most careful examination and provident regard for the future. In my next letter, I propose to exhibit a comparison of the mortality by the Equitable and Amicable Experience in years from admission ; and to give a short account of the important Tables prepared by the Committee of Actu- aries from the Combined Experience of seventeen Life Assurance Companies. This letter has already extended to greater length than was originally intended. It exposes to view, however, some serious and striking facts. It shows the rapid increase of mortality, which the advanced age of the members or the diminishing influence of selec- tion produces on the Tables of Observations, and adds weight to the repetition of the warning with which we commenced; a warning, which, if attended to in time, may avert the bitter pang of disap- pointment from many who are now indulging in hopes too sanguine to be realized, and in desires too grasping to be satisfied. I am, Sir, your obedient servant, CRITO. London, 4th November, 1 847. ON THE EFFECT OF SELECTION OF LIVES IN LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANIES. Letter 2. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — On resuming the subject of the last letter, the Selection of Lives for Assurance, I proceed to show, that the mortality in a society must continue to increase annually for many years after its establishment. The provision, which is made for future years, ought to be one, which contemplates the society attained to its full growth ; and, consequently, in the earlier periods of its existence, a continual surplus must accrue, and be carefully improved, with its accumulations, to meet the demands, which at some future time will inevitably be made on the Funds. This rapid increase 30 of the capital, apparently far beyond the present, and to the view of many members of every company, the probable future claims to which it can be liable, is apt to create an incipient desire to share in what appears to be such a large reserve of surplus, and an unwillingness to lay by, for a future generation, the profits which are presumed to be made by the present, from the premiums being far too high in proportion to the risks actually incurred. Few persons are aware of the length of time, which must elapse, before a society attains its maximum of mortality ; and even the opinion of those best qualified to judge, is too frequently pushed on one side, as dictated by self-interest, by groundless alarm, or by a desire to mystify what appears so clear to the assurer, less prejudiced as he supposes himself to be. To such parties, nothing perhaps will prove so unanswerable (we cannot say satis- factory), as an appeal to actual facts ; though we may preface their introduction by an explanation of what they may be intended to prove. If a company were started to assure lives at every age from birth to extreme old age, and if the places of all the lives, which dropped, were supplied by others, from year to year, without any increase in the numbers of the society, and without any improve- ment in the health of the assured, then the mortality of the first year, would be the same as the last, and there would be no increase in the numbers of the deaths, because the average age of the members would remain the same. But if the admission of the lives to be assured was limited between 20 and 60 years of age, then the new members would be all of younger ages, whilst, from year to year, the older assurers, who survived the first, second, &,c, years from admission, would be gradually advancing in age with the existence of the society. With this advance in age would be found a corresponding increase in the mortality, till the youngest class of the members on admission having attained to the greatest age, to which any member was found to survive in the experience of the society, the mortality would then have reached its maximum. In theory, this period, according to the Northampton Tables, in the case just referred to, would not be attained, until upwards of seventy years had elapsed. In practice, however, some allowance may be made on the ground, that the younger lives may be too few to 31 survive to the extreme age allotted to them by the Tables ; yet it may be doubted, whether a society could, from its own experience, safely form an estimate of the number of deaths to be finally ex- pected till a period of at least fifty years from the date of its estab- lishment. Various disturbing causes may hasten or retard this period ; but the admission of lives, which one with another, are younger than those which formed the original body of the society, or the general improvement of health amongst the assured, would tend still further to delay its arrival, and render any conclusions, hastily drawn from experience, even after many years from the for- mation of the company, still fallacious. The average mortality of the Equitable Society, during the 67 years from its commencement, as shown in our last letter, had been 1*96 per cent. ; but the aver- age of the four following years, viz., 1829 to 1832, inclusive, as given in Mr. Morgan's Supplement to the Tables, so frequently alluded to, was 2-81 per cent. In illustration of this subject, the following Tables are presented, showing the increase of mortality in each ten years from admission, both by the Equitable and Amicable Experience. It will be seen, that the increase in the for- mer has been nearly 75 per cent, in each decennial period, except the last ; and in the latter, 80 per cent, increase in the second ten years, 90 per cent, in the third, and 70 per cent, in the fourth. To these Tables are subjoined two columns, showing what would be the total experience of each society amongst 100 persons existing together, composed of equal numbers of such members, as had been admitted in each decennial period from the date of the society to that under observation. From these columns it will be seen, that the mortality in the Amicable Society, between 30 and 40 years from admission, was nearly the same as that in the Equitable be- tween 40 and 50 years from admission. These numbers do not give the actual mortality in either society ; because the assumption that members are existing in equal numbers, according to different periods from admission, can never be correct in fact ; since the numbers exposed to the risk of mortality continually diminish, as the mortality itself increases. It is necessary, however, for the purpose of comparison, to reduce them to the same standard. 32 TABLE I. Showing a comparison between the mortality according to the Equitable and Amicable Experience in years from admission. EQUITABLE EXPERIENCE TABLE A. AMICABLE EXPERIENCE SINCE 1808. Deaths amongst 100 persons exist- ing in equal pro- Years from ad- 3 BJ'S 2 6m'C 8 M ft M .O O »* S ** ° s CO o fc JA o tat o br/C CO ^ go -a s CO Is *>' « c o S portions, accord- ing to Decennial periods from ad- mission. mission. Equit- able Amic- able un. 10 59.83 156,811 1,972 1.26 68.10 26,403 398 1.51 1.26 1.51 10 " 20 27.58 72,279 1,651 2.28 26.47 10,262 287 2.80 1.77 2.15 20 " 30 10. 26,203 1,042 3.97 5.19 2,011 105 5.22 2.50 3.17 30 " 40 2.36 6,187 419 6.77 .24 92 8 8.70 3.57 4.55 40 •« 50 .23 594 55 9.26 4.71 100 262,074 5,139 100 38,769 798 In estimating the mortality of a society in years from admission, it becomes of importance to ascertain whether a larger proportion of lives may not have entered at later periods of life in one society than in another. If this were the case in the Amicable Society, it would in some degree, explain the greater mortality experienced amongst its members, than amongst those of the Equitable Society. By the following Table this conjecture is proved to be in accordance with the fact. TABLE II. Showing the Proportion per Cent, at different Ages of Members, who entered in the Equitable and Amicable Societies. A«-es. to 7 10 „ 20 „ 30 „ 40 „ 50 „ 60 „ 70 &c. Equitable. •56 3-70 25-90 34-30 22-60 10-30 2-60 •04 Amicable. •91 14-14 35-00 28-20 15-30 6-00 •45 100- 100- From this comparison, it appears that out of 21, 398 persons assured only 35.5 percent, entered the Equitable after 40 years of age j whilst out 3,530 assured in the Amicable, 50 per cent, were beyond the same age when they were admitted into the company : still, as so much greater a proportion of the lives in the latter society were existing within 20 years from admission, when exposed to the chances of mortality, this explanation is not sufficient alone to account for the increased number of deaths, as exhibited above. Enough has been shown to prove that, both by theory and the prac- tical results, in existing companies, the mortality must continue to increase for many years after admission, even if the actual experience of the societies corresponds with the tables used for their calculations. But if a more favourable rate prevailed, the period in which the maximum of mortality would be attained must either be longer deferred, or the claims would increase, at the last, with such rapidity, as after a long course of confidence in growing prosperity, would excite alarm in the minds of those members of the company, who had not considered that this was a consummation which ought to have been foreseen and duly provided for. The continual accumu- lation of the capital, then, in the early existence of a society, which many, not accustomed to the subject, are too apt to consider as the effect of excessive caution, and are sometimes with difficulty restrained from breaking in upon, ought to be regarded as a sacred fund, not to be diminished without the most skilful and diligent enquiry into the future prospects, as well as the past history, of the society. How these future prospects are to be estimated is a ques- tion which we believe cannot safely be settled, till tables be published drawn from a much longer experience than any company has yet the power to offer. Those, which can be relied upon, are, as we have already seen, rather discouraging than favourable, to the nattering hopes which are so generally entertained. The Tables, exhibiting the law of mortality deduced from the Com- bined Experience of seventeen Life Assurance offices, which we will now examine, contain many valuable and striking facts ;. though it is to be regretted that the observations do not extend over a greater length of time. We consider, also, that some well-founded objec- tions may be made to the observations referring only to policies, not to the lives assured. The proportion of policies to lives assured probably differs but little within the first few years after the com- mencement of a society ; but as the members advance in age, it is reasonable to expect that the proportion will be different. If these 34 Tables should hereafter be eontinued, the difference will probably be found to be much greater at a period when it may not be con- venient to alter an arrangement once adopted. It should also be remembered, that it is towards the extremity of life, when the obser- vations in any table are liable to irregularities from the paucity of numbers, that the proportion of policies will be the greatest, and likely still further to derange the results of the observations. Let us suppose, for instance, that two members were living at extreme age, the one holding one policy, the other four on his life : if the former failed, in any given year, the mortality would be but 20 per cent. ; but if the latter it would be 80 per cent. ; whilst if the lives , and not the policies, had been under observation, the correct ratio of mortality would be 50 per cent. An assurer, also, holding two or more policies and suddenly dropping one, would by that policy be withdrawn from the number living, and consequently increase the apparent risks of life at his age ; and he and other members would, thenceforth, appear subject to an increased rate of mortality, though it does not follow that his health is affected because circumstances induce him to discontinue his policy. If an assurer, also, be included in a class entered some years previously, and by a new policy is united with a class, just being formed, he would appear, in one case, subject to a law of mortality different from what he is in the other. He may indeed be considered as chosen a second time, and consequently equivalent to another select life at his pre- sent age ; but the chances are greatly against the probability that three or four individuals selected at different times, should all expire in the same year, and yet this is an assumption made in every case where three or four policies are effected upon one life. Although it may be true that the repetition of the same life in the tables was unavoidable, where an individual might have assured his life in different offices, and thus, when their experience was combined, would, without being distinguished, be in the same position, as if he were assured by more than one policy in a single office ; still the enumeration of the lives only in the latter case would be a step nearer to correctness, even though the exact truth could not be ascertained. This subject, it appears, however, was debated in the Committee of Actuaries, and these and other objections no doubt allowed their full weight. The abilities and experience of those 35 gentlemen must be our guarantee that these Tables are presented in a manner the best adapted to serve the end proposed, or, at least, in the best form which was attainable amidst the obstacles and difficulties naturally to be expected in an undertaking, where a public benefit was to be procured, with the least possible disregard to the interests and convenience of the private companies concerned. The Committee of Actuaries was appointed at a meeting of per- sons interested in the subject, and proceeded, by well prepared forms, to collect the facts and observations from the offices, that had agreed to contribute their experience ; but it was not till after the middle of the year 1841, that the whole returns were received ; nor from the diversity of classification, and other circumstances, could the tables be prepared in their present shape until 1843. The particulars are divided into six classes, Town, Country, and Irish, each of these being classed in assurances on male and female lives. The total number of policies, in which the sexes were distinguished, was 40,616 ; of which 25,462 were in existence at the termination of the experience ; 11,226 policies had been discontinued ; and 3.928 had become claims by death; 36,414 were on the lives of males, and 4,202 on the lives of females. Proportion per Cent Entered. Living. Discon- tinued. Died. Males. Females. 100 62.7 27.6 9.7 89.7 10.3 In the remainder of the returns, the sexes were not distinguished, and to these were added the observations of the Equitable Society, which then increased the number of policies to 83,905 ; of which 44,877 were in existence at the termination of the experience ; 25,247 had been discontinued ; and 13,781 had become claims by death. It should be noticed that the Tables of the Equitable Society, being observations on lives and not on policies, must have had the effect of somewhat increasing the number of deaths in proportion to the number existing at any age ; since, had all the policies, made for short terms in the earlier periods of the Equitable Society, been taken into account, the number of years of life en- joyed by the assurers would appear to be greatly increased. This f 2 36 strengthens the objection, which we have before urged to the com- bination of policies with lives assured. The materials have been arranged with great skill so as to exhibit various important results. The Combined Town Experience, which includes the Amicable Tables (liable, however, to the same objection which we have ven- tured to offer on the combination of the Equitable tables), com- prises 48,702 assurances ; whilst the total experience of all the offices is exhibited in another Table, comprising the large number of 83,905 assurances. This number would be ample to afford most important and interesting results, and more than sufficient for a guide to the operations of future societies, if the duration of the offices had allowed of any judgment being formed of the maximum of mortality, to which the societies might hereafter be subject. The observations, with which we began this letter, however, throw a doubt on the present value of these returns for any immediate pur- pose of practical utility ; since, laying on one side the Tables of the Equitable and Amicable Societies, which had been previously printed, and from their different method of compilation, are clearly more fitted for separate examination, ten out of the fifteen remain- ing companies, which contributed their experience, had been formed within twenty years preceding the. date of these enquiries. The causes of death would also have formed an interesting subject of enquiry, especially as some offices are now undertaking the risks of diseased and unhealthy lives ; but the lists were too deficient to allow of any classification being made. The average duration of the policies in nearly one-half of the experience was only five and a half years, and including that of the Equitable and Amicable toge- ther, not eight years and a half. The returns made by the British Commercial and the Sun were confined to assurances on Irish lives. The observations on these extend to 27 years from admission, whilst those of the other companies were for 23 years only. From all these observations, some unexpected results were ob- tained. 1st. It has been generally assumed, that the salubrity of the country air, and the freedom from the excitement, anxieties, confinement in close situations of business, and other evils, incident to a residence in large towns, were favourable to a greater longevity : — yet the mortality annually at all ages taken together is less in town assurances than in those in the country. 2ndly. 37 Female lives from the experience of the Government Annuity Office and other sources of information, were always judged to be of longer duration than male lives ; — yet the mortality among assured females is greater than that amongst males ; and 3rdly, as might probably have been suspected, the mortality amongst Irish lives is greater than that either amongst town or country as- surances, and very nearly approaches at all ages taken together, to within 5 per cent, of the Northampton Table ; so long and so loudly decried, as proving by its exorbitant charges, the never- failing source of wealth and profits to the older companies. Under the age of 60 the Irish assurances exhibit a mortality rather less than that of the Northampton Tables ; at every age above 60, the mortality is greater amongst these assurances. The number of Irish male lives assured was 8391 ; of females, 845 ; being about the same proportion as in the other Tables stated above. The Tables are not sufficient to exhibit the increasing mortality in years from admission, as we have previously given those of the Equitable and Amicable Society ; but the following summary is presented to show the value of the enquiries, as far as they have been conducted, and the interesting character of the facts which have been brought together. TABLE III. Showing the mortality in Decennial periods of age, according to the Experience of Seventeen Life Assurance Companies. TOWN , COUNTRY. & IRISH COMBINED. IRISI MALE AND ONLY, MALES. FEMALES. FEMALE. CO Ji . cu M Js V M CO -s . • CO 1 Is ■3 . CO "eS 8 en M a ll — "3 O) o 05 si II ■ 3 >» II s 5 I! u 73 X. s o. *t~ 3 g. M K^ s c- ^, B"3 •< 11 m * o < fl 0> «% e Is c3 1/ o Q 3 Q d o o Q 10 under 20 2375 19 25 15 M0 4 9 5 281 2 3 2 20 „ 30 19101 166 307 151 2009 33 32 16 2703 44 44 22 30 „ 40 00813 604 1138 641 3S70 61 72 41 11285 162 212 120 40 „ 50 61646 900 1457 878 5387 85 129 77 1550 i 333 369 221 r>o „ 60 3c>054 916 1240 679 5207 115 172 95 13240 425 436 241 oo „ 70 15094 63 1 705 590 3223 119 153 128 7176 349 339 284 7(J „ 80 2420 199 193 171 642 56 51 47 1363 124 108 100 80 „ 90 8 J 10 14 12 19 4 3 3 41 7 7 6 90, &c. 5 2 8 5 2 2 199620 3451 5081 3321 21167 477 621 412 51599 1446 i520 998 1.000 1.472 .91; 1.000 1.302 .864 1000 1.051 .690 38 By the following Tables, it will appear, that the mean duration of life amongst the town and country assurances, is nearly the same, though the difference is slightly in favour of the former. The Irish Table comprises both male and female lives. TABLE IV. Showing the mean duration of life according to the Experience of Seventeen Life Assurance Companies. Age. Males. Females. Town. Country. Irish. Northampton 20 39.84 35.86 41.22 40.33 34.95 33.43 30 33.17 31.73 34.84 34.20 29.71 28.27 40 26.06 26.36 27.53 27.38 23.36 23.08 50 19.41 20.05 20.58 20.48 17.76 17.99 60 13.47 13.78 14.23 14.03 12.67 13.21 70 8.34 7.93 8.61 8.48 7.92 <| 8.60 TABLE V. Showing the annual number of deaths out of 10,000 persons living at each age in Decennial periods of age, according to the Experience of Seventeen Life Assurance Companies. Ages. Males. Females. Town. Country. Irish. 20 to 30 899 1677 922 1008 1479 30 " 40 976 1572 863 1030 1387 40 " 50 1482 1575 1257 1308 2157 50 " 60 2521 2238 2120 2101 3283 60 " 70 4453 3984 3936 3917 5063 70 " 80 10181 11859 9310 10568 10981 This Table may be compared with one, given in the last com- munication on the same subject, containing the results of the Equitable, and Amicable experience, and the proportion of deaths by the Northampton Table between the same ages. By the comparison it will be perceived, that, in spite of the short duration of the offices previous to the end of the observations, the mortality in each class exceeded that by the Equitable Tables up to the age of 60, and was much higher again above 70 ; that the mortality amongst females up to the same age, considerably exceeds that, either by the Equitable, or the Amicable Tables, except by the latter between 50 and 60, and though the mortality amongst females is greatly diminished between 60 and 70, it again rises at the older ages much beyond the rate in the two Tables mentioned ; and that the mortality amongst Irish assurances, at each interval of age below 60, exceeds that of the Equitable Society by 50 per cent, on the deaths. It must be borne in mind, too, that the 39 observations on these latter assurances have, one with another, extended only over a period of 25 years. If the arguments, by which, at the commencement of this letter, it was shown, that the mortality will probably continue increasing for nearly double that period, be well considered, it will appear clear that the offices, which have been recently extending their business in this class of assurances, will either have to form a separate fund for them as for a special risk, with proportionate higher premiums, or will, we fear, as in most of the other concerns of that ill-fated country, have to provide for the claims at the expense of the English proprietors and members. The collection of facts, which we have thus briefly described, is extremely interesting ; and if it be looked upon as an instalment of future information,orthe publication, as an example to be followed by other companies, whose longer experience will add to their practical value, the public will have cause to be grateful for the labour and skill, thus gratuitously bestowed for the advancement of their interests. Every good, however, may be abused till it becomes an evil. If the publication of these observations, manifestly im- perfect as they are, and as even fresh additions to them must continue for many years to come, and ill-adapted as they are to afford deductions of theories, by which any extensive public com- pany ought to be regulated, is used as the means of exciting the public to look for increasing profits at reduced rates, or to set up, as a standard rate of mortality for all the future, the experience of little more than twenty years, the mischief may exceed the benefit they are calculated to produce. The Committee of Actuaries themselves, men celebrated in their profession, whose judgment, skill, and complete acquaintance with the subject in question, entitle their opinion to the greatest credit, have, with the fear of this misapplication before their eyes, given a very judicious warning against the hasty adaptation of these facts to practical purposes ; yet, in spite of this weighty advice, some companies have already advertised Tables of Premiums, deduced from the observations, with a margin which appears to us scarcely sufficient to cover the fluctuations of the early mortality of a society, much less the increase, which we have shown, may be reasonably expected in a few years. In public companies, the responsibilities of which are deferred to 40 so distant a period, and in which the consequences of an imprudent commencement will be felt, not by the present, but by some future generations — companies, in which so many millions of capital are invested, and the failure of which would lead to unequalled depression and misery in classes of society the least qualified to bear it, widows and orphans left destitute by their fall — it has been debated, whether government ought not to interfere to ensure for the public the safety at least, to which they are entitled, if not the fulfilment of all the promises, by which they have been allured. The interference of government in commercial concerns has not often been happy. The supply of the commodities, luxuries, and all the other requirements of mankind, is better adjusted, in pro- portion to the demand, by the self-interest, which is prompt to discover the wants of society, and hastens to provide for them. If they should even be anticipated, and the miscalculating speculator be deceived by false information, or suffer loss by error in judgment, the detriment to the country generally is but small ; since others have perhaps discovered the right direction of the public will, and have profited by it in their stead. If, therefore, a number of societies have sprung up to take advantage of the new impulse of the nation's mind towards a prudent provision for the future, when the excitement caused by the ardour of competition has ceased, the sobered judgment of the public will discern the steady companies, to whom they can trust the future welfare of their families, from the ephemeral and mushroom enterprises of speculators, who, by high sounding titles, and varnished tales, fill the ear of the greedy aspirer after gain, whilst they profit by his unsuspecting eagerness, to fill their own pockets, ere they vanish from the scene. Although it may be a debateable point, whether the interposition of government would be of any avail to check the career of imprudence, unless the good sense of the public (which, indeed, would be sufficient without the assistance of authority), would lend itself to their aid ; still there can be no doubt, that they are bound, by all their professions of regard to the public interest, to place at the disposal of the people all the information, that may be in the possession of the state, likely to prove of service in promoting such great national objects. In the Government Annuity office, must be continually increasing collections of facts, 41 which, if published in the form of the Tables, which we have already examined, would throw great light on the many interesting topics here discussed, and which many persons, interested in these pursuits, have long endeavoured in vain to have rendered available to the public in the simple form, by which alone they could be made useful for comparison. The Tables, which were prepared by Mr. Finlaison, the Government calculator, and ordered by the House of Commons to be printed in 1829, contain observations on the lives of Government Annuitants in several different classes, and the elaborate calculations made from them are correct no doubt to the ten millionth part of a pound, as they are printed ; but they do not enable us to ascertain the rate of mortality at the same age according to different periods from admission, or, in other words, to trace the effect of selection on Tables of Mortality, formed from Annuitants, in the same manner as those of the Equitable and Amicable societies afford facilities for such enquiries amongst Assured Lives. Without disparaging, therefore, that gentleman's laborious services, the publication of the materials in some such form would be a great boon to the public, for individuals might, from the original facts, discover many peculiar laws, and form comparisons, by which much light might be thrown on these abstruse subjects, and society be greatly benefited by the result. It is not beyond the province of our rulers to afford every support to those better feelings of our nature, which it was the original object of assurance companies to foster and promote. It is the duty of every government to check, as far as possible, that cold and sordid selfishness which fixes all its thoughts on the enjoyment of the present, and to bring into repute instead, that prudence, foresight, and self-denial, which by a provident regard for the future, would, at some cost to ourselves, improve the condition and increase the happiness of those who are destined to succeed us. These are virtues, which deserve encouragement ; for whilst they adorn the lives of individuals, they elevate the character of a people, and when they are wanting, the painful example of a neighbouring kingdom is unfortunately too near at hand to prove to us, that the happiness, the dignity, and the independence of the nation may perish too. I am, Sir, your obedient servant, London, Nov. 17, 1847. CRITO. G 42 ON THE MORTALITY IN INDIA. EUROPEAN OFFICERS AND CIVILIANS. * Letter 1. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — A century and a half has not yet elapsed, since a company of merchants, with a capital of £30,000 divided into 101 shares, set foot upon a land then little known, with the purposes of legiti- mate traffic and peaceful trade. Their first adventure consisted of the cargoes of five ships in merchandise and bullion, and the result was encouraging. In 1611, they obtained from the Mogul permis- sion to establish factories in four different places. Since then, possession has been added to possession, and one kingdom has suc- cumbed after another, till the territory of this company of princely merchants is computed to comprise above 600,000 square miles, and their sway to extend over 80 millions of inhabitants ; besides allies and tributaries,who may number 50 millions more. Such an empire, obtained by means so moderate, and with a rapidity of conquest * This and the three following Letters on the Mortality and Sickness of Europeans and Natives in our Indian territories, contain merely a com- pilation of the principal facts which have been collected on this subject, reduced to the same standard of comparison, and showing only the results, clear of the multitude of figures, which will be found in the original Tables. Reference is, therefore, made to the different works in which these Tables are given at large, that the reader who desires to prosecute the subject may turn to the authorities quoted. The writer was led to the comparison of these data by a few observations and some enquiries addressed to him in a private letter from a Medical Officer at Madras, and conceived that it might be convenient to many actuaries to be able to turn at once to a general summary of facts relating to this subject. They may be useful for the present ; but he sincerely hopes, for the advancement of science, and the interests of the public, that the valuable collection of documents, extracted with immense labour from the books of the East India Company, and in the possession of Mr. Neison, whose important labours have been referred to in the letters, may shortly be given to the world. They will, by their com- pleteness, and the variety of information they afford, supersede all that has yet been written respecting the mortality amongst both the Military and Civil Officers of the Company, together with the effects of the climate on the male and female constitution. The services which Mr. Neison has already rendered to the cause of statistical science, have been acknowledged by those from whom praise would come with greater weight than from the present writer, and the practical usefulness of such a publication would be only another proof of the talents and industry of that gentleman, by which society has already profited so largely. 43 so unheard of, is unexampled in history, and for its acquisition re- quired that desperate enthusiasm in the instruments, which prompts men to the boldest and most hopeless enterprises, without counting the cost, or hazarding a thought of defeat. India was a world of romance — a region of enchantment — an El-dorado,where the dreams of the most extravagant avarice, or the most unbridled ambition, might be alike realized. No doubt, in the early part of the history of our successes there, some such feeling as animated the Spaniards to achieve, with a handful of adventurers, the conquest of the new world, acted upon the stirring spirits of this country, and sent men forth, dazzled with the brilliant career before them, and reckless of life, to run a violent but rapid course of glory. No wonder that during this period of excitement but little regard was paid to those statistical enquiries, which would demonstrate the waste of life with which these great advantages were obtained, or the amount of physical sufferings which necessarily attended the employment of Europeans in a climate to which they were not inured, and amidst privations and distresses for which no sympathy was felt, and no remedy proposed. These sufferings were the lot of thousands : whilst the glory and the profit fell into the hands of a few. Of late years, however, a great change has come over the minds of men, and whilst national objects have been by no means neglected, more attention has been paid to the health and comfort of the humbler instruments by whom the destinies of kingdoms are reversed. It is only within a very few years that enquiries have been made into the sanatory condition and the mortality of the European and Native troops in India ; and the few scattered notices which have appeared are totally inadequate, at present, to give a general idea of the varieties of climate to be encountered in the wide divisions of so vast an empire. These inquiries have, however, awakened attention to the subject, and are important, because, as will be seen, it is almost entirely by the aid of military returns that we shall be en- abled to form some judgment of the effect produced by the climate of India on Europeans exposed to its influence, We propose to bring together and examine such observations as have been already made ; and by comparing the results with each other, the value of the information acquired will be more readily perceived, and the deficiencies to be hereafter supplied more easily pointed out. Inde- g 2 44 pendent of the important application of these results to purposes of military economy, it will not fail to be seen that they are not less interesting to those assurance companies which have either many of their members exposed to such risks, or have it in contemplation to extend their business into the wide sphere here opened to view. Many, no doubt, under the guidance of the experienced and talented men by whom their affairs are directed, have already procured sufficient information to enable them to decide on these points ; but to judge from the widely varied rates demanded for Indian risks, either very different conclusions have been drawn from the same facts, or they possess private intelligence, which, seeing the poverty of our present information, they may be induced, for the interests of science, to communicate to the public. This trifling con- tribution to the general store, will not, in either case, be without its use. Amongst the most important Tables, are those published in the Statistical Journal for May, 1847, drawn up by Colonel Sykes, to whose indefatigable perseverance, liberal mind, and scientific attain- ments, we are indebted for many other valuable papers, throwing light on the peculiarities and internal economy of our vast Indian Empire. The Reports by Colonel- Tulloch on the Sickness, Mor- tality, and Invaliding of Her Majesty's troops serving in various parts of the world, will ever remain memorials of skilful and laborious research ; and the conclusions which he has drawn from the facts, and their practical application as evinced in the improve- ment, (where his suggestions have been put in force), of the health and condition of the troops in so many of our colonies, and by the alleviation of suffering and the diminution of mortality, of which they have been the proximate cause, will add to his name as a man of intellect and science, the still nobler title of friend of humanity. The report which, on this subject,we shall have more particularly to notice, is that on i% The Sickness, Mortality, and Invaliding amongst Her Majesty's troops serving in Ceylon, the Tenasserim provinces, and the Burman Empire." Other notices on this subject will be found scattered in the pages of the Statistical Journal ; in Annesley on the Diseases of India, and in papers by Mr. Edmonds, Mr. Woolhouse, and other writers. All the documents, however, which have yet been published, are only trifling contributions on this very 45 important topic ; but, as it will be seen that some of the following Tables are drawn from the records of the East India Company, there must exist in their possession collections of facts, from which the Statistical Department lately established, will be enabled to supply the serious deficiencies, and correct the numerous errors to which the vague sources of information at present existing must undoubtedly be liable. Time will be required to bring together and collate the immense stores of information which lie buried in the Reports and Documents, laid by amongst their archives, and which will probably be brought to light by the establishment of this new branch of their official business : but it is difficult to over estimate the importance of its formation, both for the interests of science, and the future advantage of India and this country. In order to simplify the subject as much as possible, we propose to divide it into two parts : — 1st. The Mortality amongst Europeans, whether military or civil, in the three Presidencies ; and 2nd. The Mortality in the Native army, in the three Presidencies, arranged in the same periods of service as those of the European troops, so as to examine and compare it with that amongst Europeans, placed under similar circumstances, bringing together in the course of the investigation any other notices which will throw light on these enquiries. In order to save space, we shall merely present the results of the observations, reduced to the same standard, since any reader, desiring to pursue the subject further, will, of course, avail himself of the sources of information to which we refer, and will there find the original collections of facts. A return made to an order of the House of Commons in 1846, represented the total military force employed in India as follows : — Return of the total strength of Her Majesty's Troops, Cavalry and Infantry, in each of the Three Presidencies of India, on 1st May, 1845. BENGAL. MADRAS. BOMBAY. TOTAL. Cavalry. Infantry Cavalry. Infantry Cavalry. Tnfantry European Officers . . Non-commissioned, 1 rank and file . . J 70 1959 367 11117 34 721 264 7313 32 694 196 5345 963 27149 46 Return of the strength of the European and Native Corps of the Regular Indian Armies, on 1st May, 1845. European Officers 3,151 .. Ditto Non-commissioned, Rank and File 11,115 Native Commissioned, Non-commissioned, and Rank and File . . 235,684 But ^f nee then we have been favoured with the copy of a Return, which brings down the number to October, 1845 ; and by which it will be seen that an increase had been made in all ranks : — Bengal. Madras. Bombay. Total. European Officers Ditto, Non-commissioned and ) Rank and File j Native Commissioned, Non-com- ) missioned, and Rank and File . / 2,846 19,175 133,586 1,736 12,016 63,447 973 7,948 43,322 5,555 39,139 240,355 155,607 77,199 52,243 285,049 The mortality amongst officers and civilians in the three presi- dencies, will first engage our attention, and, for this purpose, we must turn to a very valuable paper, by Mr. Edmonds, published in the Lancet of 23rd June, 1838. The Tables which he gives, are drawn from the East India Registers for 20 years, from 1809 to 1828 inclusive. These registers contain the name and rank of every officer, and of the regiment to which he is attached, if living, and the date of his death, if deceased. They afford, therefore, ample materials for the deduction of the mortality in the different ranks. The ages of the officers are not stated ; but as the appoint- ment of cadets is fixed to be made between the ages of 16 and 18, it is found, that the average age at which they arrive in India, is within a very small fraction of 18, and which it is therefore quite sufficient to assume as the commencement of Indian experience. Lieutenants must have resided three years longer in order to attain that rank ; and captains may be reckoned to have been in the country 12 or 13 years on an average. It has frequently been asserted and believed, that the effects of climate were so fatal on the first introduction to the country, as to level the distinctions of age, and raise the mortality of the young to that of the old. It will be seen, however, by inspection of the Table, that the mortality increases with the rank, and consequently with the age, in the same manner, though not at the same rate, as that of similar classes in this coun- try. The mortality amongst officers of infantry exceeds that of 47 cavalry or engineers, and amongst medical men, that of the average of military officers of all ranks. In order to afford a comparison drawn from another source, a column is subjoined, showing the mortality amongst the same class, proved by an investigation ijiade by the Secretary of the Bengal Government, and quoted by Colonel Tulloch in the Statistical Journal for November, 1838, containing out of 1184 deaths of officers, in the Presidency of Bengal, the num- ber who died per cent, of each rank. The average age of different ranks of officers are here given; Lieutenants 18 to 33, Captains 36, Majors 40, Lieutenant- Colonels 51, Colonels 61. Mr. Griffith Davies, however, by a more minute calculation, fixes the average ages of officers in Bengal, as follows : — Ensigns 19, Lieutenants 26, Captains 37, Majors 48, Lieutenant-Colonels 51. TABLE I. Showing the average annual mortality per cent, amongst different ranks of Officers in the Three Presidencies, as given by Edmonds, and the same for Bengal from Prinsep's observations. Ensigns . Lieutenants Captains . Majors EDMONDS' TABLES. Avemge annual mortality per cent, of Officers, during 20 years, 1809 to 1828. Average Aee. 19 26 37 48 All the above ranks . . . Same of Cavalry and Artillery Lieutenant-Colonels \ « , Colonels . . . . J acc ' ' Assistant Surgeons .... Surgeons ..,...• Civil Servants under 45 . . " above 45 . . Bengal, 2.95 2.80 3.48 4.10 3.05 2.13 4.67 3.21 3.84 2.02 498 Madras. Bombay 3.60 4.39 4.53 4.88 3.37 4.05 4.14 4.98 4.32 3.61 4.94 4.45 4.54 1.94 5.13 4.02 3.41 5.75 4.29 4.04 2.73 5.92 Total. 3.26 3.58 3.98 4.53 3.67 2.85 4.95 3.79 4.13 2.10 5.14 PRLNSEP. Deaths per cent. per annum amongst Officers. Bengal. 2.34 2.75 3.45 4.10 4.84 5.94 From an examination of this Table, it will appear, that the most healthy locality for officers is the Presidency of Bengal : Bombay ranks next in salubrity ; and the greatest mortality of all ranks of officers up to Majors prevails in the Presidency of Madras ; but amongst Majors and the Civil Servants the mortality is greatest in the Presidency of Bombay. It is generally supposed, that the mor- tality of officers bears a certain fixed proportion, about one third 48 less than that of private soldiers. On the average of all the stations (with the exception of Sierra Leone), enumerated in Colonel Tul- loch's reports, this proportion was ascertained to be as 12 to 19 per 1000; but we shall be able hereafter to consider this point more conveniently when we examine the mortality of European troops in India. It may be mentioned, however, that the proportion will probably be found higher in India since the officers have not the same opportunities and facilities of returning home as in other countries. The requirements of assurance companies have led gentlemen, connected with these pursuits, to take the lead in investigations, which are capable of far more general application than to the immediate purposes for which they have been prosecuted. Medical science and political economy are alike benefited by their labours. In addition to Mr. Edmonds' valuable observations, we have other Tables drawn from similar sources, one by Mr. Woolhouse, from the " Alphabetical List of officers in the Indian army with the dates of their respective promotion, retirement, resignation or death, whether in India or Europe, from the year 1760 to 1834 inclusive, corrected to Sept. 30, 1837," published by Dodwell and Miles ; and another by Mr. Christie, which he introduced in a paper read before the Statistical Society in 1838; and which was printed in the volume of their proceedings for that year. Mr. Woolhouse has assumed, as before, the age of cadets to be 18 when first brought under observation. The total number of officers who died or were withdrawn from observation was : Bengal 6,017 Madras ..... 4,260 Bombay 2,003 Total. . . 12,280 In his adjusted tables of observation, he has united the two latter Presidencies, partly because the numbers for Bengal differed materially from those of Madras and Bombay, when the two latter are separated, and are nearly equal when they are united; and partly because the numbers for Bombay alone were too few to claim confidence in their value as a separate experience, and because on examination he found the facts observed in the two latter Presi- dencies, led to very similar results. It should be mentioned, how- 49 ever, that this conclusion is different from that to be drawn from the Table given above, and from that of the general mortality of the European armies, as we shall see hereafter. Some very useful Tables have been presented in the reports of Mr. Griffith Davies, on the Bengal Medical Retiring Fund in 1839, and on the Bengal Military Fund in 1844. The former contains a table by the late Robert Richards, of the mortality amongst Military and Medical officers at Bombay, annually from 1789 to 1821. The mortality amongst the Military officers for the average of 33 years, being 3.54 per cent., and amongst Medical officers 4.40 per cent. Mr. Davies assumes an increase of 1 per cent, at each age, on the Table of Mortality amongst the Military in India, given by Mr. Christie (and prepared from data furnished to him by Captain Henderson) as applicable for a Life Table of Medical officers only. In the second report named above, Mr. Davies con- siders, that he might have formed a Table of Mortality from the experience of the contributors to the Fund, but for certain reasons he preferred collecting the data from the list of the Bengal army then recently published by Messrs. Dodwell and Miles, the same source as the Table of Mr. Woolhouse. The total number of lives observed was 6,017, who must have all entered the service at the assumed age of 18^ years. The data with regard to the wives of members, furnished to him in the documents forwarded, were not sufficient to compute from them the interesting table, which more complete observations hereafter may perhaps afford. He has there- fore given a table, showing the mortality amongst the wives of members, drawn from a similar table, which he had prepared in 1839, for the Madras Military Fund. With regard, however, to the widows of members, the documents supplied sufficient inform- ation from the record of 500 widows to enable him to draw up a very important table, showing the rate of mortality and of re- marriages in this class. The Expectation of life amongst them is almost as high as that of the Government Annuity Tables for females, as prepared by Mr. Finlaison. The materials for another valuable Table, prepared by Mr. Christie in 1836, were obtained in consequence of an application to continue a policy of assurance, commenced in India, on more favour- able rates on account of the return of the assurer to England, on his H 50 retirement from the service. To most of his enquiries, it was sug- gested in reply, that the Northampton Table would, under such circumstances, afford a fair rate for the depreciation of health, which the climate of India might have effected on the constitution ; but having obtained permission to search the records of the India House for further information, he extracted a list of all the officers, who had retired from the Indian army, between the years 1760 and 1836. All medical and clerical gentlemen were excluded, as it was difficult to ascertain their ages. The number of lives observed was 930. Beyond the age of 82, he has adopted the Carlisle Table. The deductions are interesting, both to Europeans serving in India, and to their numerous friends, to whom the cheering conclusions he arrives at, may be made known. He found that, though these lives are subject to greater mortality than the selected lives of the Equit- able Society, or to that of the -Carlisle Table, they are considerably superior to those represented by the Northampton Table. Whatever credit may be due to the prudence of individuals, who withdraw from a climate injurious to health, before its effects are made manifest on the constitution, it is still satisfactory to know, that those who escape are not, as a body, so injured by its insalubrity as has been generally supposed. In the following Table will be found a com- parison of all the observations which have been above enumerated , and to which I beg to draw the reader's particular attention, as bringing into one view the results of the most authentic information, which. has hitherto been obtained on this subject. TABLE II. Showing the proportion of deaths out of 100 persons living at each age, according to different observations. MR. GRIFFITH DAVIES' woolhouse's MR. CHRISTIE'S PRIN- TABLES. TABLE. TABLES. c h SEP. pa cs -< is B pq "c3 :-" o m 6 Is * ■a »,5o •-. 3 > 1 ra .1 *£ 3*33 3.2 a <• « 2 13 bo a a> n •0 e . d £ d OS c! •- a T3 I! h Military Officers in ndia, on an average of all the Presidencies, apt. Henderson'* data 5 a t. si ■"• CO CO |s cod t-i u Males Femls 20.29 27.26 10 95 10.78 70.52 34.30 9.50 27.35 33.13 10.96 30.54 15.61 20.39 30.39 31.10 15.61 1 1.31 28.40 38.75 15.61 31.29 39.03 12.84 35.55 18.58 20.16 40.49 37.79 22.41 12.16 22.70 40.01 22 39 38.81 47.13 17.64 49.13 23.79 35.20 50.59 47.88 31.65 14.82 17.02 42.39 31.66 48.90 38.15 28.13 46.40 33.21 41.40 60.69 61.85 46.80 26.31 26.31 49.54 46.80 73.75 54.16 46.77 65.20 49.07 70.79 92.77 88.55 66.37 66.37 92.52 88 55 113.33 103.39 93.36 138.34 91.88 51 The very close approximation under the age of 60, between the Tables of Mortality of the Bengal Military Officers, prepared by Mr. Griffith Davies and Mr. Woolhouse, is no more than might be expected, as they have been formed from the same publication ; but it affords a satisfactory proof of the care and accuracy with which both Tables have been constructed. Above the age of 60, it is probable that the facts were too few to be available without correc- tion, and the different methods pursued may account for the varia- tion after that age. The probabilities of dying at each age, according to the original observations given in the appendix to Mr. Griffith Davies' Report, will be found to approach much more nearly than in the corrected Table to those given by Mr. Wool- house. Mr. Davies' Table of the Mortality in the Military and Medical Departments in Madras (Male Life) will be found to show generally a somewhat lower rate of mortality than that of Mr. Woolhouse. The rate of mortality amongst Female Lives, as given by the former, under the same head, is precisely the same, (except a slight diminution between the ages 20 to 29,) as that of the Wives of Military officers in Bengal ; which was no doubt considered to be sufficiently near to actual experience to serve for the calculations relating to the Fund. The rate of mortality between the same ages, according to the Northampton Table, has been added for comparison, because that Table is still used by several of the Assu* ranee Companies, and many others which profess to charge the assurer very low rates of premium, do, by means of loading the original Table with a heavy per-centage to cover the expenses and afford the probability of profits, approach very nearly in their rates to those deduced from the Northampton Table. But it may be desirable also to compare the increased rate of mortality from the climate of India with the actual Experience of Life Assurance Offices in this country, which we noticed in the preceding letter. For this purpose we must take the actual facts observed in the Actuaries' Tables, because their Adjusted Table G comprises the lives of Females, and the greater part of the Tables of Mortality in India, which we have examined, refer only to Male Lives. h 2 52 TABLE III. Showing the excess of Mortality in India, out of 100 persons (Males) living at every Age, above that of Assured Male Lives, according to the Expe- rience of the Life Assurance Companies. Expe- rience Davies. "WOOLHOUSE. CHjaiSTIE. PlUNCEP. of 17 Offices. Bengal. Madras. Bengal. Madras and Bombay. The Three Presiden- cies. Retired Officers. ! Civil Servants. 20.29 9. 18.3 25.3 18.4 24.1 21.5 2. 11.4 30.39 9.8 21.3 29. 21.5 29.3 25.8 3.1 10.4 40.49 14.8 23 25.2 24. 32.3 25 3 2.8 20.4 50.59 25.2 22.7 17.2 23.7 12.9 11.2 2.9 16.2 60.69 44.5 17.3 5. 29.2 9.6 20.7 2.2 By this comparison it would appear, that out of an equal number of persons existing at every age, the greatest excess of mortality caused by the climate of India is generally between the ages 30 to 50, and according to Mr. Woolhouse's observations, that the excess in the Madras and Bombay Presidencies under the age of 50 is one third greater than in the Presidency of Bengal ; and that below the age of 40, the excess of mortality amongst Military Officers will generally be found more than double that of the Civil Servants of the Company. Recommending this little Table to the more careful examination of those who are interested in Life Assurance, we may conclude this comparison by the following Table of the Mean •Duration of Life amongst the classes compared in Mr. Davies' Tables. TABLE IV. Showing the comparison of the Mean Duration of Life amongst Males and Females in India. Ages. Madras Military Officers.' Bengal Military Officers. Wives of ditto. Widows of ditto. Mean Duration of Widowhood. Northamp- ton. 20 23.48 25.68 35.97 42.42 20.67 33.43 30 21.26 22.31 29.57 36.71 29.23 28.27 40 19.28 18.79 23.73 30.55 27.50 23.08 50 16.63 15.33 18.41 23.87 23.38 17.99 60 13.1 12. 13.57 16.89 16.89 13.21 70 8.56 8.53 8.86 10.40 10.40 8.60 53 We proceed in the few following remarks to notice the mortality of civilians in India. In all the British dominions, the mortality amongst military men during times of peace is found to exceed that of the civil population between the same ages in England. This fact may perhaps be explained by considering that the greater part of the troops are quartered, both for convenience and military policy, in large towns and in localities, in which a much greater amount of mortality will be found than the average of the country at large, and the same causes, which would affect the health of the inhabitants, may be supposed to influence in some degree also that of the military quartered amongst them. Amongst the civilians of India, as a body holding a rank which allows a better comparison with military officers than the general population of a country, some small allowance must be made, in consequence of a wider difference being permitted in the ages of appointment ; but even this may be assumed on an average only two years older than that of cadets, or one with another to be 20 years of age. The following comparison will shew a considerable difference in the mortality between the civil and military population on their first arrival in India. It will be perceived, that the rate of mortality amongst the latter con- siderably exceeds that amongst the former, especially in the first year, though their average ages are two years younger. 1st year of residence 2nd 3rd 4th Civilians Deaths per cent. 1.95 2.35 2. 2.2 Military Deaths per cent. 3.19 2.45 2.55 2.48 From this it might be inferred that the effects of the climate on young lives depend rather on the nature of the service than on the age of arrival. It is to be hoped, however, and it is probable that more recent observations would show a much nearer propor- tion. In the following Table a considerable diminution of mortality will be observed at the period of 10 and 15 years service. This arises from the permission to return to Europe for 3 years, when probably some of the more unhealthy lives are removed from obser- vation. 54 TABLE V. Showing the average Annual Mortality per cent, of each class amongst Civil Servants in India. Prinsep. Edmonds. Ages. Bengal Presidency. 46 years to 1836. 20 years to 1823. Years of Service. Death per cent, per annum. Bengal. Madras. Bombay. Total 20.25 1 to 5 1.99 2.30 1.03 2.74 2.07 25.30 30.35 5 10 2.08 \ 1.66/ 1.58 1.55 2.34 1.83 35.40 40.45 15 20 „ 20 „ 25 2.34 | 3.54/ 2.08 2.87 3.35 2.47 45.50 Above 50 25 30 „ 30 & up. 3.64 | 4.86/ 4.33 4.16 5.79 4.51 Above 55 6.40 7.33 6.45 6.65 At all ages. 2.51 2.38 3.17 2.57 A few observations have been made, from which may be anticipated the improvement, which may be expected in the general health of officers serving in India, by an occasional transfer to the more healthy stations, of which many exist, even in a country where the general effects of the climate have been hitherto so disastrous. The climate of the Neilgherrie Hills, for instance, is as temperate as that of Great Britain, and the range of the thermometer even less. Out of 147 sick officers treated between February, 1831 and 1834, only four died, which is at the rate of 2.7 per cent., whilst the ordinary mortality of the troops in Great Britain is 1.57 per cent, of strength annually, and that of the Foot-guards still higher, being 2.16 per cent, annually. Until a greater number of facts be collected, we must leave this subject for future consideration. We will conclude with presenting our readers with the following interesting Table, quoted from Mr. Griffith Davies' Report, showing the difference existing between the mortality of single and married officers. Average Annual Mortality per cent, amongst Officers in the Bengal Presidency, from 1824 to 1842. Single. Married. Colonels 7.02 ) 4.85 ) Lieutenant-Colonels 6.38 [ 4.12 3.92 [ 3.75 Majors . 2.76) 2.96) Captains 4.18) 2.55 Lieutenants 3.74 [ 3.76 2.86 \ Ensigns 3.61 ) 1.59 55 In the three following letters, it is intended to exhibit a com- parison of the sanatory condition of the European forces, employed in the three Presidencies of India, and, by what has already been effected, to point out the improvement, of which their condition is still susceptible. It has been too much the fashion to charge upon Providence the evils,which the follies or vices of men have brought upon themselves. The license of enjoyment, which strews the path of life with the snares of death, is not to be attributed solely to the difference of climate. The lives of men are more in their own keeping, and, with a heavier responsibility, than they are willing to admit, and when they have availed themselves, without success, of the aids which their own common prudence or the advancement of science can suggest to remedy the evils which beset them, it will be time to complain of the neglect of govern- ment or the decrees of unavoidable fate. I am, Sir, your obedient servant, CRITO. London, December 7th, 1847. EUROPEAN AND NATIVE . TROOPS. Letter II. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — The superior comforts and advantages enjoyed by officers and civilians in India, naturally lead to the conclusion that the mortality ascertained to prevail amongst these classes, as examined in my last letter, should be greatly exceeded by the mortality amongst the private soldiers of European regiments stationed in that country. In a country so widely extensive as our East Indian possessions, comprehending plains, in one of which, that of the Ganges, 60 millions of inhabitants are said to be located ; and mountains, which in some places rise to the height of 20,000 feet, all varieties of cli- mate may be expected to exist. It is not intended to point out the effect of different localities on the health of Europeans, further than can be ascertained by the returns of the grand divisions of the country into the three Presidencies, Bengal, Madras, and Bombay. In the narrow space to which w« must here be confined, this distinction 56 will be amply sufficient to prove the risks of mortality to which European soldiers, as a body, are exposed ; and from the returns of the Native troops, the vast saving of human life which is effected by the employment of soldiers born to the climate. By examining the various classes of diseases, to which these different bodies of troops are subject, some interesting results have already been drawn, and suggestions offered, which, if followed out, may hereafter lead to most important changes, both in the provisioning and in the distribution of the forces ; and perhaps tend to the same saving of human life, which has been accomplished in her Majesty's troops, serving in the West Indies. The following observations only profess to be a compilation of the most important facts, which have been collected by different writers, or printed in the shape of Government Returns. I have merely deemed it necessary to use the results, after reducing them to the same standard for the purpose of comparison, because in this form they will less distract attention by the multitude of figures, and because whoever wishes to make a more thorough investigation, will prefer to turn to the original papers, to which reference is made. In the course of these enquiries, several interesting subjects have been barely touched upon, such- as the prevailing classes of diseases, or the healthiness or insalubrity of particular stations, to which the attention of the medical officers in the Company's service is beginning to be most usefully directed ; but which will require time, talent, and persevering zeal to bring to a successful issue. It is easy to collect information ; but it requires some plan and unity of design to be able to combine for any useful purpose, under the same heads, facts gathered from so wide a field of enquiry by the labours of scientific men, with methods and views so differing from each other. In February, 1847, a very valuable return was made by the Secretary of the East India Company to an order of trie House of Commons, " showing the sickness, mortality, and invaliding in the Hon. East India Company's armies in the Presidencies of Bengal, Madras, and Bombay respectively, from 1825 to 1844 inclusive;" distinguishing the ordinary deaths from deaths by cholera. To this and the other documents referred to in the last letter, must be added the admirable Prize Thesis by Arthur Saunders Thomson, 57 M.D., entitled " Observations on the Influence of Climate on Health and Mortality," and the excellent " Statistical Report on the Sickness and Mortality among the Troops serving in the Madras Presidency," by T. Graham Balfour, M.D., reprinted from the " Edinburgh Medical and Surgical Journal." This ably written treatise, besides a re-arrangement of the different stations, into those on the sea coast, on the plains, and on the Table-lands, includes topographical and descriptive accounts of every station, with observations on the temperature, the prevailing winds, the situation of the barracks, and other circumstances, by which the health of the troops is likely to be affected. From these sources the following comparison of the mortality amongst Europeans and natives may be made. In the general summary of results, the average mortality per cent, is used in a different sense from the mean mortality per cent, in the last line of the Tables ; the former signifying the number of deaths, which actually occurred per annum in every 100 of the force for the whole period; the latter, the mean of the deaths in 100 of the force in each year, which is necessary for the sake of comparing the excess of mortality in one year or period of years above another. 1. Bengal Presidency. — The maximum strength of the European troops returned in the above-mentioned years, was in 1844, 5,034 men ; the minimum force was in 1827, 3,793 men. It should be observed that these are the troops belonging to the East India Company, and do not include Her Majesty's forces serving in India. The maximum number of admissions into Hospital was in 1841, when 11,202 admissions occurred amongst 4,751 men, being about 235 to every 100 soldiers. The minimum of admissions was in 1827, being only 927 in a force of 3793 men, not so much as 1 in 4 ; though the mortality in that year was greater than the average, and out of 927 admissions, the deaths, including cholera, were as high as 325. This small number of admissions into Hospital is very remarkable, though it is correctly copied from the Return made by the Secretary of the East India Company to the Order of the House of Commons, and commented upon by Colonel Sykes, in his examination of this document, without any suggestion of its being an error ; but I have been favoured by a note from Dr. Balfour, who points out that this number " is obviously wrong, i 58 for it reduces the sickness which is usually double that of troops at home to one-fourth of the average of the cavalry in the United Kingdom ; and that for one year only, whilst there is no diminution at all in the same proportion in any other year, or in any of the other Presidencies. From a careful examination of the Return, I conceive the mistake to have arisen from a type being dropped ; and that most probably a 6. If the supposition is correct, the numbers would be 6927 in that year, being in the ratio of 185 per cent, of the strength." It seems more than probable that some such correction is required, and if the suggestion made by Dr. Balfour be the truth, this year will be above the average both in the admissions into Hospital and the mortality. The number of admissions into Hospital for 20 years was 158,160 on a strength of 88,380. For every 100 soldiers there were 179 admissions in the year. The highest mortality, including cholera, was in 1825, being 12J per cent. ; but in that year the invaliding was not above the average, and the deaths by cholera were not half the average. The minimum of mortality was in 1829, being only 5.16 per cent. ; but the invaliding was above the average, being 4.6 per cent. The maximum of deaths from cholera only, was in 1843, 2.13 per cent. : — the minimum in 1830 being only 0.24 per cent; not 1 in 400 soldiers. The average was 1.15 per cent. On the average of 20 years the number of deaths per annum, including cholera, was 7.38 per cent, and the invaliding 3.6 per cent. A regiment was consequently entirely renewed every nine years. By reference to the last letter on " the Mortality in India ;" the mortality amongst private soldiers, as just stated, will be seen to be nearly 2 J times as great as that amongst officers of all ranks up to that of Major in the same Presidency ; a disproportion so unusually great as to require a strict enquiry into the causes which have either led to such fatal results amongst the private soldiers or to the diminished rate of mortality amongst the officers. It may also be noticed, as a singular circumstance, that whilst the average mor- tality amongst officers in this Presidency is less than either of the other two, the mortality amongst private soldiers is nearly double that of Madras, and nearly 50 per cent, higher than that of Bombay. 59 Colonel Tulloch, in a paper read before the Statistical Society, stated the deaths in her Majesty's regiments serving in this Presi- dency, in 1844-5, to be 8.58 per cent., which is even considerably higher than that amongst the East India Company's European Troops. In the Table given below a very striking difference is perceptible in the mortality of the Native troops when compared with the European. The following general summary will aid the reader in clearly understanding the facts. Native Troops. — The average force for the 20 years was 102,321, and the average number of admissions into hospital per annum 55,036, being nearly 54 to 100 soldiers, or every soldier may be considered as admitted at least once in every two years. The maximum of admissions was in 1842, being rather more than 87 admissions to 100 soldiers. The average for the two following years being also very high, Colonel Sykes is inclined to think that a portion of these troops must have been employed in the conquest of Scinde, with the Bombay regiments, and consequently exposed to a greater amount of sickness. The minimum of admissions was in 1827, the same year and the same average (unless the correction be made as suggested), as occurred in the European troops, viz., not one in four. The average number of deaths per annum from all causes for the 20 years was 1.79 per cent. The maximum was in 1834, 2.69 per cent. ; the minimum in 1826, 1.30 per cent. In that and the following year, however, the number of deaths from cholera was unusually small, being little more than 1 in 1000. Exclusive of ckolera, the lowest mortality from other causes was in 1843, being only 1.04 per cent. The average mortality for the 20 years from cholera was only .22 per cent. ; not one fifth of that which prevailed amongst European troops. The highest mortality from cholera only, was in 1833, .33 per cent., being, with the single exception of the year 1830, lower than the lowest mortality from the same cause amongst European troops ; whilst in the year 1831, not 3 in 10,000 of the native troops perished by this much feared disease. These facts are re- markable, for it has been a general impression, that the strength of constitution and more substantial nourishment of the European i 2 enabled him to struggle with greater success against the ravages of this dreadful scourge. The diet of the Hindoos, who are univer- sally non-consumers of animal food, was supposed to be inadequate to support nature under this disease ; yet in the proportions of different castes, which Colonel Sykes has given, in 74 native regi- ments of infantry, the Christians constitute only 1.34 per cent., and lohammedans 15 5 per cent., leaving the remainder, more than 83 per cent., composed of Hindoos, (of which the Brahmins supply 31, the Rajpoots nearly 35, and the Hindoos of inferior castes about 17 per cent,) In confirmation of the small proportion of deaths by cholera, to which Colonel Sykes has already drawn attention, he has in a recent number of the Statistical Journal given an analysis of the report for rong to the Bengal Government, of the mortality in the Jails of the 24 Pergunnahs, Calcutta. The report contains the number of cases, and the number of deaths from this cause an. the prisoners for every month of 31 years, from 1811 to 1847, both inclusive; and the average of the whole period only exhib: mortality of one per cent, on the strength — the average mortality from all causes being 7.11 per cent., or more than half as much again as the mortality of the inhabitants of Calcutta generally. The of cholera were on an average 1 1 ~ per cent, of the strength, and out of 100 attacked, only 8.86 proved fatal. The extremely hot and the extremely cold months appear to have added to the fatality of the disease ; but, in these opposite seasons, " the are fewest in the cold months, and most numerous in the hot months." It should be remembered, that as there was not one year in ivhich cholera was wholly absent from the Jails, and may be expected that the disease, if contagious, must in such a situation have been most severe in its ravages, the conclusion arrived at with regard to this fearful disease is truly encoura_ " that for no one year, nor for any one month, in the whole period of 3 1 years, has the intensity of the mortality been comparable to that which is occurring in Edinburgh, in London, and the provinces it the present moment.'' To return to the Tables we were examining, the invaliding small ; the mean for 20 years being only 1.5 per cent. Adding the invaliding to the mortality, a regiment would be renewed in 30 61 years, or upwards of 3000 European recruits would be required where 1000 natives would suffice to maintain the same military force. As it is computed, that each recruit costs the East India Company nearly £100 in expenses, training, passage money, &c, before he becomes an efficient soldier, it may be easily perceived of how great importance are any observations, which have for their object to ascertain the causes of the great mortality amongst Euro- peans in India, and to suggest the means by which it may be diminished. The following Table contains a summary of the facts presented to parliament. In the original document the details are given lor each year; but it is considered sufficient for our purpose to combine them in periods of five years. TABLE I. Showing the Mortality per cent, amongst European and Native Troops in the Bengal Presidency. Europeans. Natives. Deaths by Cholera only. Deaths from all causes. Invalided. Deaths from all causes. Invalided. Europeans. Natives. 1825-9 1830-4 1835-9 1840-4 7.77 7.04 6.93 7.44 5.3 2.8 2.5 3.8 1.56 2.18 1.96 1.51 1.66 2.12 ' 1.04 1.18 .65 1. 1.08 1.44 .13 .24 .25 .24 Mean . . 7.29 3.6 1.80 1.50 1.09 .22 -Jn the prize essay of Dr. Thomson, to which reference has been made, the mean mortality of British troops employed in the Presi- dency of Bengal for seven years from 1826 to 1832, is quoted from an article by Dr. Burke, in the Edin. Med. Journal, as 57 per 1000, (the average force for each year being 8700 men), and for the single year 1833, at 53 per 1000. Lieutenant- Colonel Tulloch, in a paper in the United Service Journal for February, 1835, estimated the mean mortality amongst British troops in India at 63 per 1000. But as the result in our Table given above is the average of so long a period as 20 years, we may assume that 73 per 1000 is more nearly correct ; and since the mortality in the British army may be estimated at 15 per 1000, the excess to be attributed to the differ- ence of climate must be set down at nearly 58 per 1000, or nearly 62 four times greater than that which prevails in Great Britain. Happily some of the causes, which produce this great increase, may- be removed by attention to diet, to the situation of the barracks, and other circumstances by which the health of the European soldier is injuriously affected. Of the proportion of deaths given by Dr. Burke, 15.4 per 1000 were attributed to different classes of fevers ; 18.4 per 1000 to diseases of the bowels; and 11.5 per 1000 to the cholera, the latter agreeing very nearly with the average for 20 years from 1825 to 1844. With regard to the admissions of European soldiers into Hos- pital, the average of the seven years 1826 to 1832 is given by Dr. Burke as 1717 per 1000. In the year 1826, he states them so high as 2192 ; and in 1827, as 1876 per 1000. The former is above the rate of admission given in the Government returns for that year, but the latter very nearly agrees with the correction proposed by Dr. Balfour, and confirms the accuracy of his suggested alteration. The attacks of sickness amongst European troops in Bengal appear to be on an average more than twice as numerous as when in their own country ; and the severity of disease much greater, for whereas in this country only 1 death is stated to occur in about 70 cases treated, it was found, on the average of the seven years, that 1 in 30 proved fatal. If the year 1833 could be taken as an average year, 129 in every 1000 of the European troops were constantly sick; whilst amongst the native troops, the number very little exceeded that in England constantly sick, the former being 47, and the latter 44. Amongst European troops the average time that *i patient is confined to the Hospital would be 47 days in the year in Bengal; whilst, in England, it is only 18 J days. Madras Presidency. — European Troops. — Pursuing the examination of the returns to Parliament before alluded to, we shall find that the Presidency of Madras is decidedly healthy when compared with that of Bengal ; for the mortality, either from the more careful selection in the localities for stations, or from natural advantages favourable to health, is but little more than half, and the invaliding not two-thirds of that in the latter Presidency. The mean strength was 5060. The average number of admissions into Hospital was 134 to every 100 soldiers. The greatest number of admissions was in 1834, and the least in 1832 ; being in the former year nearly two admissions to every soldier, and in the latter little more than one. The average per-centage of deaths for the 20 years from all causes was 3.85. The greatest number of deaths was in 182-5, during war, when it rose so high as 11.84 ; and even deducting the deaths by cholera it would still remain in that year more than three times as great as the average number. The smallest number of deaths was in 1835 and 1838, being in each of the two years only 2.12 per cent. ; a mortality not equal to that of the Foot-guards in England. The average per-centage of deaths from cholera only for the 20 years was nearly .43 per cent. ; being, as will be seen hereafter, only four-fifths of the losses by the same disease amongst the native troops in this Presidency, and little more than one-third of that amongst European troops in Bengal. The maximum of deaths by this disease was in 1825, 1.38 per cent., and the minimum in 1835-6 — when only two deaths occurred amongst 10,000 men, which does not exceed the lowest average amongst the Native troops in Bengal for the whole 20 years. The average Invaliding was 2.076 per cent., which being added to the average mortality, shows that a regiment in Madras will not be renewed in less than 17 years; or that, one with another, the soldiers will serve very nearly twice as long as in the European regiments in Bengal. According to Colonel Tulloch's returns, the same healthy condi- tion characterises her Majesty's forces employed in this Presidency, only 627 deaths being recorded in a force of 15,385 men, for the two years 1845-6, or 4.07 per cent. ; being less than half the pro- portion, which occurred in the two years above quoted in Bengal. Considering that the mortality amongst officers is stated to be higher in this Presidency than in either of the others, a careful enquiry into the causes of the comparative healthiness of the men appears to be a duty incumbent on the military or medical author- ities. Native Troops. — The average strength of the Native troops for the 20 years was 59,813. The total number of admissions into Hospital during the whole period was 904,325 on a strength of 1,156,250; or in each year 78 ' 64 admissions occurred on an average in every 100 soldiers. The maximum of admissions was in 1825, being 118 to 100 soldiers ; and the minimum in 1831, being less than 59 in the same number. The average mortality was 2.14 per cent., being greater than that amongst the native troops in Bengal ; though the mortality of Europeans is the reverse. The maximum was 434 in 1825, and the minimum 1.25 in 1830. By cholera only, the average number of deaths was .603 per cent., being upwards of one -third more than the "deaths amongst Europeans in this Presidency from the same cause, and more than two and a half times as great as the average amongst Native regi- ments in Bengal from this disease. The maximum was 1.38 per cent, in 1843, and the minimum in 1835, when only two men died of cholera in a force of upwards of 49,000, being little more than the proportion of 4 to 100,000. The invaliding amongst the Native Regiments was nearly one- third greater than in Bengal, being 2.03 per cent. ; which added to the average mortality gives 4.17 per cent, per annum, whence it appears that a native regiment would be entirely renewed every 25 years, or 5 years less than the native regiments in Bengal. A very great disproportion exists between the. relative numbers of Hindoos, and other castes, when compared with the Bengal armies. From 1837 to 1840, in the cavalry, the Moosulmen bore a proportion to all other castes as 7 to 1, and in the infantry as 1 to 1 j. This may in some measure account for the increased rate of mortality by cholera, for as these castes are not subject to the same restrictions as to diet which prevail amongst the Hindoos, an additional confir- mation is afforded to the supposition that the cholera is more fatal where animal food and spirituous liquors are freely indulged in. In vol. 2 and 3 of the Journal of the Statistical Society are con- tained some very complete and valuable returns from this Presidency, drawn up by a committee of the society from returns presented by Mr. Annesley, late President of the Madras Medical Board. That gentleman states in a note to the Secretary of the Statistical Society, that in 1822 he received a copy of the medical returns from 1815 to 1822, and that on his return to India in 1829, being greatly interested in the subject, he prosecuted his researches into the records of the Medical Board from 1829 to 1838. The former 65 returns he published in 1825 in a valuable work on the "Diseases in the different stations and divisions of the Madras Army ;" and the latter are the papers which have been prepared with great care and the results published by the Statistical Society. The returns include the whole of the European troops from 1793 to 1838. The observations amongst the troops serving on the Tenasserim Coast, which, though under the same Presidency, is so far removed, and the climate of which differs so materially, have been separated and presented in a different report. They comprise the returns for the years 1829 to 1838. Those of the rest of the Madras Presidency include observations on the Native troops from 1822 to 1838. The total extent of the East India Company^ possessions in the Madras Presidency is estimated at 250,000 square miles, exclusive of 78,000 square miles in Assam, Arracan, and the Tenasserim Coasts, on the opposite shores of the Bay of Bengal. The Carna- tic is exposed to the N.E. Moonsoon, which commences about the middle of October, with periodical rains, which last till the end of December. From this time till February is the cold season, which is healthy and pleasant. In March and April the southerly or long shore winds prevail, with clouds of dust, inducing slight febrile attacks. The S.W. Moonsoon, which commences in May, bringing the periodical rains, extends over the greater part of the Peninsula. In the Carnatic the hot season continues during May, June and July; August and September are also close and sultry. The Madras Presidency is divided into seven military divisions, for each of which the returns are given in Mr. Annesley's valuable work, together with the description of the climate, the different stations, and the diseases most prevalent in each. To the pages of the Statistical Journal the reader may be also referred for the enumeration of the different wars and other circumstances which have affected the mortality in different years. Our limits will only allow of a general summary, and a comparison with the returns of the East India Company, which we have already examined. From 1793 to 1838 the average force of Europeans was 9,800 men. This includes both her Majesty's troops in the service of the East India Company, and the regiments recruited for the company in England, and as the details are not separated they may conse- 66 quently be expected to differ, in some slight degree, from the previous results, which relate only to the latter description of force. It will appear, both from this and from a previous statement, that the mortality in her Majesty's troops is greater than amongst those of the Company; since by the combination of the two the general average is increased. The returns as presented by the Statistical Society are divided into different terms of years, corresponding with "the most important changes in the operations of the army." These are 1793 to 1800, the Conquest of Mysore ; 1801 to 1809, a general war in the Carnatic, distinguished among other events by the battles of Assay and Argaum, in which the Duke of Wellington, then Colonel Wellesley, began his career of fame. These wars ended in a great accession of territory. In 1810 to 1820, the con- quests of the Isles of France and Bourbon, and the Island of Java, were effected, and expeditions undertaken against the Mahratta States ; in 1822 to 1830, the Burmese war ; and in 1831 to 1838 a small expedition against the Coorg Rajah. In each of these periods a portion comprised years of peace, varying from two to five years. In order not to confuse the reader, we subjoin here the general mortality in each of these periods ; and afterwards subdivide the observations into the years corresponding with those of the East India Company's returns, so as to present a comparison between the two. TABLE II. Showing the Mortality per cent, amongst the Troops in the Madras Presidency. — Statistical Soci< ?ty's Returns. Europeans. Natives. ^ Constantly sick. Admitted into Hospital. Died. Admitted into Hospital. Died. 1793 to 1800 10.0 6.8 1801 l< 1809 10.7 8.0 1810 << 1821 10.5 6.3 1822 n 1830 259. 7.1 83.4 1.74 1831 << 1838 187. 4-3 67.2 1.73 In one of the reports of Mr. Finlaison, the average reported sick at 74 monthly musters in Great Britain, was in the Cavalry 4.02 per cent., in the Foot-guards 4.26 per cent., and in the Infantry generally 4.98 per cent. It will be noticed in the above Table, how great is the diminution of strength in the Army from the above 67 cause, as well as the large proportion of admissions into hospital, when compared with the average of nearly the same period of years already stated. The average mortality in the whole period from 1793 to 1838 was 6.6 per cent., the greatest being in 1799, during the conquest of Mysore, 14.3 per cent., and the next in 1824, during the Burmese war, 13.3 per cent. It is gratifying to observe the improvement, which has taken place since 1830. Deducting the five years from 1822 to 1826, the period of service in the Burmese war, the follow- ing comparison is made with troops in Great Britain. Admissions into Hospital. Deaths. Europeans in Madras Dragoons and Dragoon Guards in the United ) Kingdom x . . . / 18.38 9.29 4.8 1.4 showing only double the amount of sickness, but evidently of a more fatal character, as the deaths in India were 3 J times as numerous as those in Great Britain. During the whole period of 46 years, 21 were years of war, and 25 of peace. In the former the average mortality was 8.2 per cent, per annum, in the latter 5.5 per cent, per annum. "We proceed to consider the average of mortality, derived from the same returns, amongst the Native troops from 1822 to 1838. The comparison with the European regiments has been given above. It will be perceived, that the proportion of sickness has diminished during the last 10 years, and the mortality is less than is stated in the returns furnished by the East India Company to Parliament. The mean strength of the native army is also different. From 1825 to 1838 inclusive, over which period both returns extend, the former shows a strength of 931,171, and the latter only 786,831. The average admissions into Hospital during the period of 1 7 years was 77.3 per cent., very nearly the proportion in the latter returns. Excluding the period of the Burmese war, the average was only 61.5 per cent, "being exactly one-third of the proportion among the European force in the same years, and one-third less than among the Dragoons and Dragoon Guards in the United Kingdom." k 2 68 The average annual mortality was 1.8 per cent., or including the Burmese war, 1.6 per cent. During 7 years of war, the mortality was 2.2 per cent, per annum, and during 10 years of peace 1.5 per cent., nearly the same «as that of the army of Great Britain. With regard to the diseases, which prevail in the Madras Presi- dency, some very important results are obtained from these returns, extending over the years 1827 to 1838, and their comparative influ- ence on Europeans and Natives ; but as this would lead us into a wide field of inquiry, the following Table will be sufficient to show the effects of the more fatal classes. TABLE III. Showing the admissions into Hospital, and deaths per cent, of strength, amongst the Troops in the Madras Presidency, and in the United King- dom, by the more fatal classes of diseases. Madras Presidency. United Kingdom. Europeans. Natives. Dragoons, &c. Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. Fevers 34.9 3.8 11.6 31.4 2.7 .55 .23 .56 1.76 .76 18.9 .4 •• l 3.2 .9 .35 .07 .01 .20 .40 7.5 14 Diseases of Lungs . " Liver . . •' Stomach and Bowels Cholera 14.8 .8 9.4 .4 .77 .04 .08 .12 Of all Diseases . . 183.8 4.86 61.6 1.61 92.9 1.40 The cholera, according to those returns, appears to have been much more fatal amongst European than Native troops ; a result which, though agreeing with the observations in Bengal, differs widely from the average in the returns to Government. It will also be seen, that though the attacks are less numerous, they are of a much more fatal character amongst the Natives, the proportion of Natives attacked being only one -third that of Europeans, but the mortality of the former being more than one-half of the latter by this disease. The most remarkable difference to be observed is in the disease of the Liver, which, so fatal to the Europeans, is scarcely noticeable amongst the Natives. Amongst the Europeans the dis- ease is more fatal at Madras than at any other colony except Sierra J^eone. Even there, the admissions are less numerous, being but 8.2 69 per cent.; though the deaths are rather more than in Madras, being .6 per cent. Another peculiarity, exhibited in the above Table, is the comparative rarity of diseases of the Lungs, not merely amongst the Natives but Europeans also, rendered still more singular by the fact, that, in all the other stations in which Native are quartered with Eu- ropean troops, they generally lose nearly 50 per cent, more than the latter by this disease ; and in the Mauritius the proportion of deaths amongst the Negro troops is more than double that amongst the European troops. Dr. Balfour has pointed out that the term Native troops, as used in the Report, must not in all these stations be consi- dered as natives of the country ; for that the Black Troops in the West Indies and the Mauritius are not native troops ; and that the greater mortality by this class of disease amongst them, therefore, shows merely the different influence of the climate of these colonies on a white and a black immigrant population ; that the only native troops quartered with Europeans, are the Royal Malta Fencibles, the Cape Mounted Rifles, and the armed Lascoreyns in Ceylon ; no sufficient evidence existing as to the effect of Pulmonary disease amongst the first ; its prevalence amongst the second confirming the remark made above ; but the last enjoying a very marked exemp- tion, compared with the Europeans, the deaths being in the proportion of only 16 to 41. The other Black Troops in Cey- lon, though immigrants, enjoy a similar exemption, but not to the same extent. From this, however, the Caffre Negro Troops must be excepted, diseases of the Lungs being more than twice as fatal amongst them as amongst the Europeans. Diseases of the brain, generally supposed to arise from intemperance, in which Europeans unfortunately indulge to excess, whilst it is scarcely known amongst the natives, produces in the Madras Presidency amongst the former nearly seven times more, both of admissions and deaths, than amongst the latter. Without going further into detail, we close this slight though important inquiry with the following Table, exhibiting the proportion of mortality per cent, by the Tables pre- sented to Parliament, for the same years as were given for Bengal, subjoining to it a comparison of the facts, as nearly as possible for the same periods of years, from Mr. Annesley's observations as arranged by the Statistical Society. 70 TABLE IV. Showing the Mortality per cent, amongst the Troops in the Madras Presidency. Beturns from the East India Company. Years. Europeans. Natives. By Cholera only. Mortality from all causes. Invaliding. Mortality from all causes. Invaliding-. Europeans. Natives. 1825.9 1830.4 1835.9 1840.4 6.43 3.89 2 59 2.82 2.1-6 1.94 2.11 2.13 2.47 1.86 2.08 2.17 2.23 1.52 2.07 2.16 .41 .64 .23 .42 .60 .52 .46 .78 Mean. 393 2.09 2.14 1.99 .42 .59 Returns by the Statis- tical Society. Admissions into Hospital. General Mortality. East India Company's Beturns. Statistical Society's Beturns. Europeans. Natives. Europeans. Natives. Europeans. Natives. 1825.9 1830.4 1835.9 7.65 5.28 3.92 2. 1.56 1.8 ; 178. 133.4 123. 83.1 67.7 86.2 263.6 187.5 179.6 89.6 57.9 73.5 The returns by the Statistical Society extending only to 1838, the above comparison terminates with the latter years. It is not necessary in this place to enter into the causes of the difference between the two sets of observations. The more important one, that of Europeans, probably arises from the combination of her Majesty's troops with those of the company. It is gratifying, how- ever, to observe by both returns, that the mortality from general dis- eases appears to have diminished of late years ; though the fact that deaths by cholera have increased, both in the Presidencies of Bengal and Madras, and, as we shall afterwards see, in that of Bombay demands an anxious and searching enquiry. For further observa- tions on the mortality and the most prevalent diseases in this Presidency, the reader is referred to the excellent report by the Committee of the Statistical Society, and as to the effects of the different classes of diseases in the varying climates of the sea-coast, the plains, and the table-lands, to Dr. T. Graham Balfour's admira- ble essay, which has been before alluded to. It was impossible to confine these observations within the limits 71 originally intended ; and the enquiry into the mortality in Ceylon, the Tenasserim Provinces, and the Bombay Presidency, in which we shall have to examine an important table of the mortality amongst the native troops, arranged according to their ages, must be reserved for another letter. The facts contained in this letter are worthy of being preserved for future reference, by all those, who from associations of friend- ship, ties of relationship, or personal recollections, take an interest in the handful of Europeans whose destiny it is to control and maintain our authority in this mighty empire ; and they are en- couraging, as tending to prove, that the attention of government and increased medical experience, have been already rewarded by the diminution of the evils incident to suffering humanity, and give promise of still greater success in the future. I remain, Sir, your obedient servant, CRITO. London, 28th Jan., 1848. THE TENASSERIM PROVINCES AND CEYLON. Letter 3. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — Tenasserim Provinces. — The Tenasserim Provinces on the Eastern shores of the Bay of Bengal are generally supplied with troops from the Presidency of Madras. They originally formed part of the Birman Empire, and were ceded to the East India Company in 1827, by the treaty of Yandaboo, on the success- ful termination of the war with Birman. Independent of their important position, by which the East India Company are enabled to maintain a formidable force on the confines of what might become a troublesome enemy, they have hitherto afforded reason to hope that they may form efficient sanitary stations, in spite of many peculiarities, which might lead to a different conclusion. It is in this point of view only, that we propose to consider them. These provinces extend from about 10° to 17° 40' N. latitude, and are about 450 miles long, by a breadth of 50 to 70 miles, (as far as can be ascertained, for we are at present, but imperfectly acquainted even with our own possessions,) except in the Southern extremity, 72 where they become reduced in breadth to 10 or 12 miles. They are mostly uncultivated, covered with thick forests, with occasional open plains of coarse grass. When first delivered over to the British, it was computed, that the whole population did not exceed 30,000 souls on a territory of upwards of 33,000 square miles ; but since the establishment of cantonments at Moulmein, many of the natives passed over from Rangoon and Martaban, and upwards of 30,000 are now reckoned to be living under British protection, on our side of the Saluen alone. These are mostly natives of Pegu or Thalians, who, having shown great partiality for the British during the war, feared the vengeance of the Burmese, and con- sidered themselves safer under British protection. In this neigh- bourhood there are at present 20 Thalians to 1 Birman. Tenasserim is the place of banishment or penal settlement for India, and 2,000 convicts have been sent there, principally Thugs. On the term of the banishment expiring many have settled and married native women in the country. The principal stations are at Moulmein on the Saluen river ; at Tavay; and at Mergul, situated 100 miles south of Tavay on the Tenasserim river. Moulmein is situated 30 miles up. the Saluen river, where it is nearly a mile broad, and near the junction of the two rivers, the Attaran and the Gyne. The cantonments are on sloping ground, about a quarter of a mile from the native town, backed by a ridge of low hills, which extend to the sea coast. The distance in the straight line being only nine miles from the sea, the station is visited by cool and refreshing breezes, which may counteract the general character of the ground, which is alluvial soil, and so level that it is reckoned that 5,000 square miles are annually under water by the overflowing of the rivers. The quantity of rain that falls is almost incredible. It is computed at 200 inches annually, about five times the quantity that falls in Great Britain, of which 160 inches fall in the four months of the height of the Monsoon. The temperature is considerably below the average of the tropical climates. In the wet season the moisture is described to be so great, that " metals are constantly in a state of corrosion, wearing apparel is completely saturated, and articles of wool or leather are covered with mould in the course of a single night." 16 The troops stationed here usually consist, according to the return, of one of her Majesty's regiments of the line ; a regiment of East India Company's Native Infantry ; a small body of Gun Lascars and Pioneers ; and a company of European Artillery. The following extract from an interesting description of Moulmein by William Henry Scales, Esq., a Medical Officer in the Hon. Com- pany's Service, written in 1843, when stationed on the spot, may prove useful to the reader : — * The situation of Moulmein is exceedingly picturesque, and by nature strong and capable of being easily fortified. There have been many extra batteries erected in the course of last year, on the brow of the hill forming the Eastern boundary which cover the plain, so that it would be impossible for any force to make an attack from the plain unless in a dark night. Gun-boats are continually on the river during the night, and go up a short distance so as to be a security against any sudden attack. There are in addition one of H.M's sloops stationed here, two or three armed schooners, and almost always an armed steamer. The troops now stationed at Moulmein, consist of H.M's 84th Regiment, 1000 strong; two Native Regiments, of about 800 men each; the Talien Rifle Corps of about 300 men ; and a company and a half of Artillery, consisting of about 150 Europeans and 300 Natives. The only force that appears to be insufficient is the Artillery, and that has been strengthened lately by half a company. " The climate is decidedly a cool one compared with India ; and this is owing, in my opinion, chiefly to there being (strictly speaking) no land winds. From the situation of the town, nearly surrounded by water, it is quite evident, that any hot wind must become cooled in its passage across such a body of water, consequently a North wind is an exceedingly cold one, owing I expect to its passing for many miles over the river Saluen, which above Martaban is some miles in breadth. The same observation may apply to a North-east wind ; and the only one that can be called a ' land wind' is an Easterly wind, and from this Moulmein is fully protected ' by the ridge of hills before spoken of.' " European Troop . — The mean strength of the European force from 1829 to 1838 was 974, excluding the year 1835, when the re- turns were incomplete on account of Her Majesty's 62d Regiment being transferred to the Bengal Presidency till November in that 74 year. In 1834, the mortality was very great, in consequence of the arrival of the above regiment, which had suffered greatly on the march from Bangalore to Masulipatam. On arriving at the latter place, they were attacked by fever and dysentery, and when ordered to Moulmein, 17 out of 380 died on the voyage. The average number of admissions into Hospital was 159 per cent, per annum, and the deaths 3.46 per cent. On comparing this with the average for the Madras Presidency, a great advantage will be noticed in favour of Moulmein. Colonel Tulloch, from the returns to the War Office, agrees in the average of admissions, but gives the annual average of deaths from 1827 to 1838 at 4.47 per cent.; but this includes the year 1827, the first formation of the settlement, when a great number of deaths were to be attributed to the previous sufferings of the troops and to the difficulty of obtain- ing fresh provisions. Excluding this year, the average of deaths was only 3.3 per cent. By an abstract of the deaths in a detachment of the East India Company's Artillery from 1827 to 1838 the average mortality appeared to be only 2.9 per cent. Excluding the years 1834-5 the greatest sickness was in 1837, 179 per cent. ; and the least in 1833, 102 per cent. The highest average of deaths (exclud- ing 1834, when it was so high as 1-9 per cent.) was in 1832, 4.87 per cent., and the least in 1831, 2.5 per cent. Native Troops. — The average strength of the Native troops in Moulmein for 10 years was 1156. The average annual number of admissions into Hospital amongst them was 80.4 per cent, and the deaths 1.46 per cent. The mortality in the last five years amongst the Native troops, shows a great increase, being, when compared with the first five years, as 1.62 to 1.26 per cent. At Tavay and Mergui an insurrection broke out in 1829, when for a time these towns fell into the hands of the insurgents. They were soon retaken, and since then a small force has been stationed at each. At both places, the general description of the country very much resembles that of Moulmein, except that in Mergui the barracks are situated on a hill above the town, and exposed to cool and refreshing breezes from the sea. At Tavay the total force from 1829 to 1836 was only 253 Europeans, and at Mergui 226. In this number there occurred only 4 deaths which could be traced to disease, being not equal to 1 per cent. 15 At Penang, 'of Europeans only, a small force of artillery is stationed, amongst whom the average of deaths for 10 years was only 1.77 per cent., though the number of admissions into Hospital was a third more than at Moulmein, being 219 per cent. Of Native troops in Penang, Singapore, and Malacca, the average strength from 1829 to 1838 was 1994. In 1832-3 these troops were engaged in active service in Malacca, and deducting these two years the average annual admissions became 86.7 per cent., and the deaths 1.68 per cent. The following Table comprises all these scattered observations collected and compared in the same periods of years, as far as they can be reduced to the same standard. TABLE I. Showing the Mortality per cent, of Strength amongst European and Native Troops in the Tenasserim Provinces, Penang, &c. Moulmein. Tenasserim Pro- vinces. Penang. Penang, Singapore and Malacca. Years. Europeans. Natives. H.M.'s Troops. 1827 to 1836. Tulloch. Europeans. Natives. Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. Admit'd Died. 1 Admitted. Natives. 1829 1830 to 4 1835 1336 to 8 172. in. 4.33 3.18 3.54 107. .96 87. 1.27 i 62. ! 1.78 1827-9 178 137 1835-6 177 7.50 3.10 2.90 231. 263. 161. 2.11 1.41 130 113 67 2.48 2.23 1.49 Mean. : 159. Excludin Year lfi 3.50 =r the 34. 79. 1.44 149 1829 to 1 3.16 336 219. 1.62 96.6 1.96 With respect to the most prevailing diseases, it will be unnecessary to go further into details, than to state generally, that in spite of the moisture of the climate, rheumatism appears to prevail less amongst Europeans at Moulmein, than in the Madras Presidency; the admis- sions and deaths being each only two-thirds ; but amongst Natives the reverse is the case, in the proportion of 8.7 to 5.3 admissions and .15 to .08 deaths per cent. This may arise from the greater coolness of the climate, injurious as may be expected to native constitutions, besides being deprived of the care and attendance which the Sepoy enjoys with his family at home. Hitherto these Provinces have been remarkably free from cholera. It began l 2 76 in 1827 amongst the native troops, and extended itself to the Euro- pean ; but since then has not shown itself as an epidemic. The general result is, that the climate of the Tenasserim coast is more favourable to Europeans than Madras, the deaths at Moulmein showing a decrease of one-third ; but with regard to the natives, the returns exhibit scarcely any improvement, and even that appears to have diminished of late years. Ceylon. — For the greater part of the observations on the Mor- tality of this island, we are indebted to the valuable report of Colonel Tulloch, already adverted to ; and which deserves an attentive perusal by those interested in the subject. Ceylon, which finally fell into our possession in 1815, is situated between 5° 54' and 9° 50' N. Lat. and 79° 50' and 82° 10' E. Lon. Its extreme length is 270, and the breadth is 145 miles, containing altogether about 24,664 square miles, being nearly equal in extent to Ireland. The centre of the island is occupied by a mass of lofty and broken mountains, rising several thousand feet high, and as may be supposed, the inhabitants in this part are few in number, not exceeding an average of 6 to the square mile : whilst on the low ground on the sea shores, and at the mouths of the various rivers, which run into the sea, much land has been brought into cultivation, and at Galle and Colombo the inhabitants number 150 to the square mile. The fall of rain on the South West Coast averages 70 to 80 inches per annum ; but as the North East Moonsoon passes over a much greater quantity of land, it is less impregnated with moisture, and on the North East coast the fall of rain is but 50 to 55 inches annually. In the interior of the island the rain and dews are abundant throughout the year. The European troops, in this command, generally consist of three complete regiments, or of the service companies of four regiments, with two companies of Artillery, and a detachment of Sappers and Miners. In the early part of our possession, an extra degree of mortality was experienced in consequence of harassing duties, attendant on slight insurrections in different parts of the island ; on marches performed through uncleared districts, abounding in fever and other local disorders ; on scarcity and badness of provisions; and the difficulty of obtaining medical assistance for the different detachments, into which it was necessarv to divide the forces. Arrack 77 also was served freely out to the soldiers, for which, since 1831, a substitute has been found in coffee. The alteration in these causes of unhealthiness and the general improvement in stations and barracks will suffice to explain the great difference in the health of the troops, which is perceptible in late years. European Troops. — The average strength per annum of these forces in the island for 20 years, from 1817 to 1846, was 2149. The average number of admissions into Hospital was 167.8 per cent, and the mortality 6.98 per cent, per annum, according to the medical returns. The returns to the War-office comprise all those deaths which did not come under the observations of the Medical officers, and swell the average to 7.5 per cent. The admissions into Hospital will consequently appear to be twice as great, and the average of deaths five times as numerous as in the United King- dom. The lowest mortality was in 1833, being only 3 per cent. ; and the highest in 1818, nearly 22. per cent. The most fatal diseases were fevers and cholera. In 1818, on the Patipalar river, all the Europeans of one detachment, except four, were in the Hospital with remittent fever, and when a small force of 32 men and an officer were sent to defend the post, the fever began within 1 1 days after their arrival, and attacked every one, including the officer, of whom one-half fell victims within a month. It will be seen hereafter how singularly free the Negro troops are from this class of diseases. Amongst diseases of the lungs consumption is as common as in Canada or Great Britain. The number attacked was .5 per cent., and the proportion of deaths to admission was as 10 to 18. The following Table shows the comparison of mortality by Pulmonary diseases amongst European troops in different parts of the world : — TABLE II. Showing the Mortality per cent, of Strength by Pulmonary Diseases. West Indies Jamaica . . . . . . .70 Canada ...... .45 Gibraltar . . . . . . .43 Malta 42 Ceylon . . . . . . .34 Cape ...... .28 Diseases of the liver form a much greater source of sickness in .91 78 the Eastern than in the Western hemisphere, and the same remark applies, as far as Ceylon is concerned, to the diseases of the stomach and bowels ; the proportion of deaths by dysentery, the most fatal of these complaints, being nearly 50 per cent, more than in the West Indies, though the number attacked is not very widely different. Diseases of the Liver. Dysentery. Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. "Windward and Leeward Command . 2.20 5.50 .18 .49 20.60 21.10 1.60 2.30 Cholera has, at various times, visited all parts of the island. In 1829, it began amongst the Malays, engaged in large numbers in the pearl fishery, and from them spread rapidly amongst the small force of Malay troops employed to protect the fishery. One-fourth of the latter were cut off, but the detachment of the 61st European Regiment escaped. From the history of the cholera in this island no conclusions can be drawn, either as to the influence of climate or its contagious character, though careful observations have been made. In 1819, the weather had been wet and cold ; in 1829 and 1832, on the contrary, it was hot and dry. Facts equally contradictory were observed as to its being contagious or not. The remarks, however, of Colonel Tulloch deserve attention, that " those in immediate contact with the sick in hospitals suffered less than the soldiers in barracks;" and " that of the drunken and irregular part of the soldiers, a fourth part were attacked, and from five to six per cent, died ; whilst of the sober and well conducted only a fifth part was attacked, and from three to four per cent, only died." It has frequently been maintained that, with a lengthened residence in tropical countries, the constitution becomes more fitted to endure the vicissitudes, and is hardened to the effects of the climate ; but Colonel Tulloch gives various Tables, proving that the mortality increases more rapidly than the usual proportion, both with advanceof age and length of residence. The same remark applies to each of the more important class of disorders. Amongst the recruits under one year's residence in Ceylon, the mortality was 4.4 per cent. ; under two years 4.87 per cent. ; and above two years 79 4.92 per cent. The last column of the following Table may be compared with one of the mortality of officers in India, given in the previous letter, making an allowance for the slight difference of ages : — TABLE III. Showing the Mortality per Cent, of the Strength by different Diseases according to Ages. Ag-e. Fever. Diseases of Liver. Dysentery. All Diseases. Cholera in 1832. Under 18 " 18 to 25 25 " 33 33 " 40 40 " 50 .31 .58 .93 2.53 .16 .53 1.00 3.16 1.00 2.02 3.12 2.53 2.33 2.40 5.50 8.64 12.66 1.54 6.35 12.20 6.25 The average number for 20 years constantly sick amongst European troops was 6.7 per cent. The average sick time to each soldier was 24f days in the year. The average duration of each attack of sickness was 14 J days, being rather shorter than in the United Kingdom, where this time extends to 16 days. The greatest increase of sickness is at the commencement of the North East and South West Monsoons, when under the influence of the rains, the vegetation increases with amazing rapidity. The average number of Europeans invalided from 1817 to 1824 was about 3.5 per cent, annually ; since that time the number has been consider- ably less in consequence of stations for invalids having been selected in the island. Before proceeding to examine the mortality amongst the Black troops, it may be interesting to compare that of the European officers with the European soldiers, exposed to the same climate, and during the same periods of years. The average mortality from l r 18 to 1836, was 4.6 per cent, per annum amongst the officers, and 7.5 per cent, amongst private soldiers ; but as the returns were incomplete for the first seven years, the following Table shows the comparative liability to disease from 1824 to 1836. This period appears to have been more healthy than the first seven years amongst officers, since (adding omissions for remote stations) 3.33 per cent, only died per annum ; and each officer on an average was attacked with sickness once in the year. Officers appear to be 80 less liable to all kinds of sickness, though the attacks of fever, when they occur, are more fatal. The comparative exemption of officers from cholera is remarkable here as it is in all the other colonies, where observations have been made ; but in diseases of the brain, though suffering little more in number of attacks than private soldiers, yet the mortality is three times as great. A similar result has been noticed in the stations in the West Indies. TABLE IV. Comparison of Sickness and Mortality per cent, of Strength, amongst Officers and Private Soldiers. Officers. Privates. Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. 20.20 5.60 2.10 16.50 1.10 .20 .95 .10 .10 .55 .46 .10 37.80 7.80 4.90 35.90 1.00 1.90 1.41 Diseases of Lungs „ liver „ Stomach and Bowels . . . „ Brain v Cholera .49 .42 2.08 .16 .55 Black Troops. — These consist of four classes, Malays, Natives of India, Negroes, and Natives of the island. 1. Ceylon Regiments, composed of Malays, who are described as stoutly made, capable of bearing great fatigue, and of energetic character, rarely addicted to intemperance, but some of them indulging in the use of opium. From 1818 to 1836, the average force was 1823 ; the admissions into hospital 105.6 per cent., being less than two -thirds of those amongst Europeans ; and the deaths 2.48 per cent, per annum. By the war-office returns, however, it appears that the total deaths were 2.7 per cent., but as these com- prised two companies of invalids, Colonel Tulloch thinks that, making allowance for this fact and the incorporation of three companies of Negroes in 1825, the average mortality amongst the Malays would not exceed two per cent. The Negroes are mostly natives of Goa or Mozambique, stout, muscular men, five feet six inches, to five feet eight inches in height. The mortality amongst them was 6.1 per cent., being higher than that amongst any of the Black troops ; and as they appear healthy men and receive rations the same as the European troops, this great loss of life cannot be explained. From their remarkable exemption from fever, a peculiarity common to 81 Negroes in all parts of the world, they are employed as pioneers in clearing the jungle, forming roads, &c. As this mortality is given for the years 1816 to 1820, it is possible that they now partake in the increased healthiness, apparent amongst the troops of late years. This description of force was first introduced by the Dutch Government, and it is mentioned as a singular fact, that no descendants can be traced of the 9000 imported by the Dutch before 1803, and that of 4,000 or 5,000 imported since by the British Government, only 200 or 300 remain, though negro women have been brought over, and the soldiers are mostly married men. The Pioneer Corps are principally natives of Madras and Bengal. From 1821 to 1833 the average annual number of admissions amongst them was 156.3 per cent., nearly the same as that of Euro- peans; and the mortality 4.05 per cent., or by the War office re- turns, 4.3 per cent. This large mortality is accounted for by the nature of their occupation, clearing the forests and jungles, forming roads, &c, the unhealthy localities they are often compelled to reside in, their filthy habits, want of shelter and proper food, and (from their being mostly of low caste) their unrestrained indulgence in ardent liquors The Gun Lascars, employed in dragging the guns and taking care of the ordnance stores, though they are of the same class of men, yet being employed under the superintendence of European officers, and living mostly in barracks, with regular duties, and good diet, experience less sickness than even the natives of Ceylon ; the admissions being only 109.6 per cent. : and the total mortality 1.37 per cent. The armed Lascoreyns are natives of Ceylon, raised in 1818 amongst the inhabitants friendly to British rule, and employed in protecting the revenue, and in the duties of police for the interior. Their services are not arduous. They live in barracks, but both the sickness and mortality, experienced amongst them, appear unusually high for natives in their own country; the former being 126.3 per cent, per annum, and the latter by the War office returns 2.58 per cent. We shall conclude by presenting to the reader a general com- parison of the mortality amongst European and Black Troops in M 82 Ceylon, as nearly as possible, arranged in periods corresponding with those given in the last letter. TABLE V. Showing the Mortality per cent, of Strength amongst European nd Black Troops in Ceylon. Her Majesty's Troops. Malays. Pioneer Corps. Constantly Sick. Admitted. Died. i Admitted. Died. Admitted. Died. 1817-9 8.26 228. 14.00 176. 4.95 1820-4 7.32 159. 7.14 108. 2.40 1821-4 161. 5.37 1825-9 7.5 178. 5.04 101. 2.38 141. 2.76 1830-4 4.7 137. 4.80 91. 1.98 1830-3 175. 3.50 1835-6 5.1 130. 4.45 102. 2.25 In a recent report, which Colonel Tulloch presented in September, 1847, to the Statistical Society, showing the improvement in health which had taken place in various stations, he mentions that the average mortality in the years 1844-5 amongst European regiments in Ceylon, was reduced to 4.42 per cent., which being compared with the average for the 20 years preceding 1836, 7.5 per cent., show r s a reduction in the number of deaths of more than 3 per cent, per annum of the strength ; so that the mere saving of human life is equivalent to twice the number of deaths which occur in the British army at home. A similar result occurred in the same period in the Ceylon Rifle regiment, composed principally of Malays, where the mortality, from an average of 2.7 per cent, in the 20 years preceding 1836, was reduced to 2.1 per cent, in the two years 1845 and 6. In drawing attention to these valuable reports of Colonel Tul- loch, as exhibiting the comparative effects of climate on different classes of the men, it may not be out of place to observe, that the mortality amongst soldiers appears to be the' best series of observa- tions from which an unbiassed judgment can be formed. Inde- pendent of the different bodies of troops being nearly of the same average ages, their duties being easily defined, their diet regulated, and their health subject to the most careful medical superintendence, it is the interest of Government to ascertain the causes of every change by which their health may suffer, or their efficiency be pro- 83 moted, and thus a variety of elements exists for an uniformity of observation which would be wanting were a comparison instituted amongst the civil populations of different countries. All the most important facts, reduced to the same standard of comparison, have been collected in this and the two preceding letters, and the reader will find in the documents referred to, other details and observations well worthy of his attentive perusal. It will only remain to notice, in a concluding letter, the sickness and mortality in the Presidency of Bombay. I remain, Sir, Your obedient servant, CRITO. London, 8th February, 1848. EUROPEAN AND NATIVE TROOPS IN THE BOMBAY PRESIDENCY. Letter IV. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sib, — Having in the three preceding letters examined the per- centage of mortality amongst the troops both in the Presidencies of Bengal and Madras and their dependencies, as well as that of officers and civilians in all the three Presidencies, it only remains to collect the facts relating to the health and mortality of the troops in the Presidency of Bombay and the adjoining countries, in which a portion of these forces has been employed. In addition to the return to the order of the House of Commons dated 16th June, 1845, to which we have before alluded, we must avail ourselves of " the vital statistics of the Bombay Native army at every age, from 20 to 52, for the years 1842, 1843, and 1844," presented by Col. Sykes in a valuable paper published in the tenth volume of the Statistical Journal. As these tables have been worked out from the original observations by Mr. Neison it would be unjust to pass oveT without notice the deserved compliment which Col. Sykes pays " to the indefatigable perseverance, love of his subject, and readiness to oblige," with which his valuable coadjutor so freely lent the aid of his great talents and practical experience in investigating this interesting subject. M 2 84 The principal features of the Bombay Presidency are the Western Ghauts or Hills, forming the boundary of the Deccan towards the Sea. They extend from about twenty-one to eleven degrees north latitude. At their commencement, they may be 60 miles from the coast ; but in the neighbourhood of Bombay, they approach within 30 miles, and south of fifteen degrees they almost touch the coast in many places. They are covered with thick forests of valuable wood, teak, and in one part sandal wood, and are traversed by numerous streams which in the rainy season become furious torrents. The tract along the sea shore is covered with sand, on which cocoa-nut and palm trees are abundant, and in the small valleys amongst the hills rice is much cultivated after the rains. The south-west monsoon sets in about the beginning of June, is at its height in July, and terminates in October. The annual quantity of rain in Malabar amounts to 116 inches, at Bombay to 64 inches, and further north still less. The mean annual temperature at Bom- bay is about 80°. The territories annexed to the Presidency of Bombay extend to about 15° north latitude, and the climate of this coast is considered healthy, in spite of the cultivation of rice and the abundance of rain. ^ European Troops. — According to the returns first named, the maximum strength was in 1843, 5022 men, but the average force for 20 years, 1825 to 1844, was 2549, on which number the average admissions into hospital were 4436, being the proportion of 174 per cent. On reference to the previous letters, this proportion will be found to be nearly the same as the average admissions amongst Europeans in Bengal ; but nearly a third more than those in the Madras Presidency. The maximum of admissions was in 1837, and the minimum in 1841. The average per-centage of deaths from all causes including cholera, was 5.08 per cent., nearly one-third less than the mortality in Bengal, but nearly one-third more than the mortality in the Madras Presidency. The maximum was in 1826, 11.52 per cent., and the minimum in 1830, and 2, — 2.48 and 2.43 per cent, respec- tively. By cholera only, the mean mortality for 20 years was .56 per cent., being only half the mortality by the same disease in Bengal, but nearly a third more than in the Madras Presidency. The 85 maximum per-centage of deaths by cholera, in the Bombay Presi- dency, was in 1842, when it rose so high as 1.91 per cent. ; but in 1825, not a single death occurred in a force of nearly 2000 men. The average invaliding per annum for 20 years, was 3.16 per cent, which being added to the total average mortality gives 8.23 per cent. ; which is equivalent to supposing that a regiment would be entirely renewed in little more than 12 years, being three years longer than an European regiment in Bengal, but Jfive years less than one stationed in the Madras Presidency. The average strength of her Majesty's regiments in Bombay for the two years 1845-6 was 5517; and the mortality amongst them was estimated by Colonel Tulloch at 10.52 per cent., being double that of the average of European troops in the Company's service. In 1845, the mortality was 13.05 per cent. ; in 1846 7.15 per cent. But some of her Majesty's regiments had been exposed to the climate of Scinde, and suffered under its effects, or were still sta- tioned there ; and, without knowing the proportion of each force, it would be unjust to draw any conclusions from so short a period, or to institute any comparison without more complete information. Native Tkoops. — The average number of native troops em- ployed during the 20 years, 1825 to 1844, was 31,448; the greatest number being 49,873 in 1844, during the military opera- tions in Scinde. The average number of admissions into hospital was 91.7 per cent., but in the year 1839, when the occupation of Scinde took place, the average number was 105 per cent., and in 1840, 113 per cent. The average of admissions is much higher than either in the Presidency of Bengal or Madras, being in the former only 54 per cent., and in the latter only 78 per cent., as we have already shown. The average number of deaths for the 20 years, from all causes, including cholera, was 1.29 per cent, per annum, being rather more than two-thirds of the deaths in Bengal, and about three-fifths of those in the Madras Presidency. By comparing the mortality with the admissions into hospital, it will appear, that no great reliance can be placed on the latter to prove the fatality of diseases, since the average of deaths is the smallest where the number of admis- sions is the greatest. The comparative facilities afforded for 86 admissions, or the different regulations of the service, may account for great variation in the proportions ; but the statement may be useful, as showing the relative diminution of force in the army from sickness, as it is to be presumed that soldiers not in the hospital are compelled to take some portion of their share in the service. The greatest mortality was in 1839, a year of active warfare, 2.38 per cent. ; but leaving out the year 1843, when it was as low as .69 per cent., not one half of the mortality in the British army at home, and which is probably an incomplete return, the year 1831 shows the least mortality, being only .78 per cent. The mortality by cholera only, averaged .28 per cent., being rather more than in Bengal, but not half the mortality from the same cause in the Madras Presidency. The average invaliding was comparatively high, 3.31 per cent., being twice as high as in Bengal. Adding the invaliding to the mortality, the average result is 4.6 per cent. ; or, one with another, a regiment would be entirely renewed in 22 years, being eight years less than in the Bengal, and three years less than in the Madras Presidency ; but still nearly twice as long as an European regiment in the same Presidency. The following Table exhibits a comparison of the mortality amongst European and Native troops, arranged in the same periods as those for the other Presidencies in the last two letters, and with which it may be properly examined. It is stated that in 1842, the returns from Scinde were incomplete ; but it would appear by the results that 1841 and 1843 were also defective. TABLE I. Showing the Mortality per cent, of Strength of the European and Native Troops in the Presidency of Bombay. Europeans. Natives . Deaths from Cholera only. Admissions into Hospital. Years. Deaths from all causes. Deaths Invalided, from all causes. Invalided. Europeans Natives Europeans Natives. 1825.9 1830-4 1835-9 1840-4 7.11 3.19 5.21 5.32 4.45 2.94 2.94 2.71 1.39 0.97 1.44 1.37 , 2.98 4.18 3.20 3.30 .44 .38 .50 .87 .28 .30 .30 .33 237. 207. 228. 97. 88. 86. 89. 103. Mean 5.21 3.26 l 1.29 I 3.41 .55 .30 192. 92. 87 • The difference between the mortality of Europeans and Natives is still very great. On the average of the last five years the former will appear to be nearly four times the latter. This difference will probably be greatly decreased, as the gradual removal of troops to stations, which experience points out as conducive to health, may be expected to produce a favourable effect. The hills, which rise above the Concan to the height of 4000 feet, are much frequented by invalids in the hot season ; and though the heavy rains, which fall in the hills, may have prevented the establishment of canton- ments, yet a sanatorium has been formed at Malcolmpett, at the height of 4,500 feet, on the Mahabaleshwar hills, about 25 miles from the coast, and has proved of the greatest service. The rain, however, which falls here, averages 239 inches annually, and at Randalla, 1740 feet above the sea, it averages 168 inches. Further eastward, at Poonah, only 23.4 inches fell, when the mortality amongst the European troops was only 2.3 per cent. These troops were removed here and to other stations from the Island of Bombay and Kolabah, where the mortality had been very great. The change is another proof of the advantage to which the prosecution of these enquiries may be expected to lead. The documents, from which the tables of mortality according to ages of the Native troops in the Bombay Presidency, were compiled, were drawn up by the Military Auditor General in Bombay, General Barr. It is unnecessary here to enter into a full description of the original returns. They are complete for the years 1842, 3, and 4, and were prepared for the purpose of ascertaining the climate of Scinde on the health of the troops. The general results may be stated as follows. The average strength for three years was 33,053, and the average mortality, including Cholera, was 2.70 per cent. The mortality appears to have been gradually diminishing, being in each of the three years respectively 3.3, 2.7, and 2.25 per cent. In Tables I. II. and III., the absolute mortality of the Native army in Bombay, and the proportion dying per cent, at each age from 21 to 52 is given, and in Tables IV. and V., the mortality amongst the troops in Scinde is distinguished from those not in Scinde at all during the three years referred to. The average mortality per cent, is also given in quinquennial periods of age ; but we have rearranged them 88 into classes corresponding with the periods of age, quoted in pre- vious letters, so as to allow of a more accurate comparison being instituted. The average mortality per annum at all ages amongst the troops in Scinde was 4.33 per cent., and amongst those not in Scinde 1.97 per cent. Colonel Sykes observes, that, inclusive of the climate of Scinde and the cholera, the average mortality of the troops in the Presidency of Bombay is less than that of the Royal troops serving in the Ionian islands, the latter being 2.83, and the formeralso 2.79 per cent. But a still greater difference will be observed by comparing these results with the mortality for a longer series of years, given from another source in the Table above. To those who are acquainted with the country, the following Table, showing the proportions to the districts which supply soldiers to the Bombay army, and the castes of which they are composed, will be interesting. The Concan is the low land at the foot of the Ghauts north and south of Bombay, and the Deccan is the Mahratta country above the Ghauts, from which Colonel Sykes is surprised to find so small a proportion of the soldiers enlisted. The Jews are described as valuable from their steadiness and ability. TABLE -II. Showing the Proportions per cent, of Country and Caste of the Native Soldiers in the Bombay Army. Country. Christians Jews Moosulmen Hindoos Low Castes Parsees Caste. Concan Goozrat Deccan Hindoostan Madras Malabar 37.6 1.7 6.4 52.2 .8 1.3 1.00 1.00 8.90 76.07 13.00 .03 100. 100. The next Table deserves consideration, as containing almost the only authentic observations, which have yet been brought together, of the mortality amongst the Natives of India according to ages. By an abstract from the Madras Athenaeum, which was reprinted in the Post Magazine for the 12th of February, 1848, it appears, that Natives of India are assured at one office in the Presidency of Bombay, at rates of Premium considerably under those charged for Europeans in the same Presidency. From the comparison of all 89 the previous Tables, there can be no doubt of the safety of such reduction on a general scale; but whether the benevolent anticipations of Colonel Sykes with regard to diffusing the benefits of assurance amongst the civil population in the service of government, could be realized from the present observations, remains still doubtful. It will be seen that the mortality per cent. at different ages varies much, and in a manner different from that of ordinary Tables. It is probable, therefore, that some causes may be at work amongst the troops, which would not affect the civil population. At the same time, these Tables form interesting records of facts, and may lead to subsequent and more important inquiries. TABLE IIL Showing the Mortality in the Native Army in the Bombay Presidency in 100, existing at each Age. Proportion per cent. Deaths per cent, at each existing at different Ages. Age. Actuaries' North- Ages. Table. and Wales. ampton Table. Whole In Not in Whole In Not in Males. Males. Army. Scinde. Scinde. Army. Scinde. Scinde. 21.24 44.98 42.34 46.24 10.13 16.31 7.40 3.50 2.81 6.06 25.29 19.92 23.23 18.36 14.25 21.74 9.55 4.37 4.10 8.14 30.34 7.65 9.29 6.85 13.34 17.50 10.52 4.29 5.06 8.86 35.39 14.06 14.16 14.02 13.74 23.92 8.92 5.47 5,47 9.72 40.44 8.19 7.28 8.63 15.02 23.74 11.69 6.38 7.05 11.13 45.49 3 81 2.99 4.19 16-12 21.54 14.39 8.44 7.18 12.66 50,52 1.39 .71 1.71 9.73 18.55 7.62 5.32 4.29 8.83 100. 100. 100. Amongst the regiments, not serving in Scinde in 1844, were included six regiments, which had been employed in that country in 1842 and 1843, and from the sickness contracted whilst there f the mortality on their return was nearly the same as whilst they were in that country. This would require a deduction of .58 per cent. from the total mortality of the army "not in Scinde," reducing it from 1.97 to 1.39 per cent., which is not widely different from the male population of England and Wales, and under the mortality of the Northampton Table, of Dundee, of France, and the city of Glasgow, as computed by Mr. Neison. On examining the above there will be noticed first, the very singular diminution of numbers existing between the ages of 30 and 34, when compared with the 90 periods before and after ; secondly, that though the total under the age of 29 is nearly the same both "in Scinde " and "not in Scinde," yet the proportion existing between 25 and 29 is much greater, and the proportion under 25 much less in the former territory ; thirdly, that of the army " not in Scinde," the mortality per cent, at each age, under the age of 35, is about 20 per cent. greater than that of the Northampton Table ; but above ,that age, by uniting the periods of five into ten years, it is nearly the same as the latter table : and, lastly, that below the age of 29, which comprised 65 per cent, of the whole army, the mortality "in Scinde " was about two and a quarter times as great as that of the troops "not in Scinde." The following general summary of facts, computed by Mr. Edmonds, for all the three Presidencies, is taken from the paper before referred to, published in the Lancet, for June 17th, 1838, showing the proportions of sickness and deaths which occurred during the years 1827, 1828, and 1829, in the total army of the East India Company, amounting to 11,877 Europeans and 77,442 Native Troops. TABLE IV. Showing the proportion of Sickness and Mortality per cent, of Strength amongst European and Native Troops in all India. Europeans Natives . Cases of Attack. 186.6 54.6 Constantly Sick. 9.20 3.22 Deaths in One Year. 5.33 1.43 Deaths in 100 cases. 2.86 2.63 Mean Dura- tion of each case in Days. 18.0 21.6 This little Table will afford a general measure of comparison with the results more recently given for each Presidency. In the original Table some of the classes of diseases are distinguished under each of- the above heads, and lead to some curious results ; as, for instance, that the duration of each case, though on the general average longer amongst Natives than Europeans, is, by the more severe diseases, such as fever, dysentery, &c, less in the proportion of 14 to 17; whilst the milder diseases are longer amongst the Natives, in the proportion of 28 to 21 days. In this and the preceding letters, want of space would not allow of our examining more in detail the causes, which have produced the great mortality of Europeans in India, when compared with 91 that of Natives ; but the facts which have been brought together deserve attentive consideration. They prove that the indulgence in stimulating food and exciting drinks, intended to increase the appetite and support the strength, have a contrary effect. The substitution of porter and coffee, as beverages, in lieu of the ardent spirits, which formerly were so freely served out, has been found to have the most beneficial effect on the health of the European troops ; and the most healthy even amongst the Natives are those, who, by their religious observances, are restricted to farinaceous or vegetable diet and total abstinence from spirituous liquors. It is not intended to infer that the great sickness and mortality experienced by Europeans in a tropical climate, is entirely attributable to their habits of life, still less that they should, without any precautions, reduce themselves to the diet of the Natives ; but it must be borne in mind, that formerly more stimulating food and beverage was re- commended than the soldier would even be allowed in this country, and what was originally intended for his good, may, by his own excesses, have led to habits fatal to the constitution. Perhaps a still more important enquiry for the European troops is that into the causes of unheal thiness in particular stations. The removal of these causes, or, where that is impracticable, the choice of different stations, may lead to a vast improvement in the sanitary condition of the army in India. It has been shown that localities exist, frequently in the neighbourhood of unhealthy stations, where the mortality scarcely exceeds that experienced amongst British troops at home. Several valuable reports from different stations, furnished by talented medical officers in the Company's service, have been printed at the Calcutta press ; but for want of uniformity in plan and observation are not easily combined into one. The result, however, as far as the examination has proceeded, is most cheering, and the climate of India, formerly considered so fatal, is already beginning to lose its terrors, and we shall probably find, that the European, with the exercise of common prudence and self restraint, may enjoy a comparative healthiness little inferior to that in his own country. I remain, Sir, your obedient servant, CRITO. London, February 21st, 1848. n 2 92 ON THE CAPITAL OF LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANIES. Lktter I, To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — In considering the question of the Capital of Assurance Companies, it is of the utmost importance to distinguish between the accumulation of premiums after the payment of the annua! claims and expenses of management, and that, which is the more correct application of the word — the sum either borrowed or reserved, which the company employs for the purpose of obtaining, securing, or increasing their business. To those, who are accus- tomed to the management of these concerns, this distinction may appear unnecessary, because by them the mistake is not liable to be made. But the mere assurer so frequently falls into error on this subject, that it is by no means an uncommon expression from his lips, " what a large capital such a society has," when he merely means to assert, that it possesses a certain amount of stock in the public funds, or laid out on mortgages. He is perfectly ignorant, whether the society may not be at the same time in a state of insol- vency, and consequently possesses no capital at all. It cannot be too often and too forcibly impressed on the mind of the ordinary assurer, that the amount of stock in the funds or other securities, which he is pleased to consider as capital available for any purpose, but especially for the purpose of being divided amongst the mem- bers, if in their opinion it is increasing too fast, is no guide what- ever to the actual condition of the society. One company may- have doubled the value of its accumulations, and yet be in a state of bankruptcy by having more than doubled the present value of its liabilities; % whilst another, with a much slower apparent increase, may be in a position to give a large per-centage of bona fide profits out of a fund, which may appear a miserable pittance, when compared with that of its more dashing neighbour. We proceed, however, to consider for the benefit of the assuring public ; first, what is the meaning of the Capital of a Life Assurance Company and what is its object ; secondly, at what cost is it obtained ; and thirdly, what are the advantages to be derived from its employ- ment. 1. The two questions, comprised under the first head, are so intimately connected, that they may be almost considered and answered as one. Capital may be employed in a variety of ways. In manufactures, it is the sum which is necessary to purchase the raw material and pay for the wages of the workmen, and the neces- sary expenses of the establishment in which their labour is carried on. The difference between this outlay and the increased value which is given to the raw material by the skill of the workman forms the profits or the interest on the capital invested* But there are other investments of capital, in which the reasons for the wide difference in the profit which it returns, are not at first sight so clearly intelligible, amongst which may be enumerated the different species of the Public Funds, Shares, Foreign Stocks, Railway Debentures, &c. In these, the owner expects to receive such an annual rate of interest for his money, as will bear some proportion to the risk which he runs, of not obtaining the full amount which he has invested, whenever he wishes to withdraw his original capital. In Proprietary Assurance offices, the capital which he advances, is required solely for the purpose of taking off from the assurer the risk of those sudden and violent fluctuations in mor- tality, which may occur more particularly in the early stages of a society, when the number of members is not sufficient to afford an equable and average number of deaths. The premiums, which will be adequate in the long run to pay all the claims, may not, at this early period, have accumulated to a sufficient sum to meet the demands arising from an unusual amount of mortality. The capital, of which we speak, is therefore employed in giving confidence to the assurer, that the engagement made with him by the company will be faithfully fulfilled, and that if the premiums already received, laid out at interest, be not sufficient to afford payment of his claim, he shall have this additional security on which he may rely. The risk which the lender of the capital runs is twofold ; — that of the actual risk of a number of deaths above the average, occurring out of a number of lives, too small to afford the fair average of the popu- lation, from which the Tables of Premiums may be constructed ; — and secondly, that the managers of the company, relying on having a fund, on which they can fall back in case of need, may be less careful in the selection of lives, in order to give a temporary eclat or halo of prosperity at the commencement of an undertaking, and 94 thus increase the growth of the society. The lender of the capital, in the terms which he makes with the society, consequently incurs both these risks, for which he expects to be fairly remunerated. We have here only considered the lender of the capital as a single individual, since it is immaterial in theory into how many shares the amount required may be divided. All the partners are supposed to be placed on the same footing, and to have agreed amongst them- selves, as to the termson whichthey are willing to make their advances. The consideration of what may be deemed a just return for the risks which they run, will come more properly under the second head, where it may be illustrated by a few practical examples, of the cost at which the public are buying this kind of security, yet it may be not out of place here to remark, that in a well constituted proprie- tary office, where the premiums are adequate in themselves to cover the ordinary risks, the greatest peril which the proprietors incur is in the early infancy of the company. As the numbers increase, the doctrine of averages will prove that the deviations from the mean number of deaths become contracted, in proportion, within narrower limits. If the society should comprise a very large number of members, the variations from the average in the number of deaths will be so small, that a mere trifle set apart from the funds of the society, year by year, would be sufficient to assure their own fluctu- ations, and enable them to dispense with the security of the proprie- tary body altogether. Yet it is singular, that in almost every case, the proprietors, who in the first instance generally act sufficiently on the rules of common sense and fair commercial dealing to require an adequate return for the early risks which they incur, instead of diminishing their claims with the growth of the society, share largely in its increasing prosperity, and the less their capital is in danger or their shares liable to calls , the more they obtain for its nomi- nal use. It is true, that if the directors or assurers, believing that the large accumulation of the early premiums and the diminished mortality experienced are to be considered as proofs that the pre- miums have been computed at much too high a rate, should divide a portion of their surplus, without a due regard to the provision necessary for the more advanced and more fatal ages, the share- holders may again have to run the risk which ought to have passed away, and may find themselves at last compelled to provide a 95 guarantee against losses which they have, in many cases, helped to create. But this is an event, which could only arise through bad management, or from a combination of circumstances controlling that watchful regard for their future interests, which it is presumed that Directors, Shareholders, and Assurers are all, in general, anxious to keep in view. The capital, contracted to be supplied by the body of sharehol- ders for the purposes above named, is seldom fully paid up. It is customary for the shareholders to pay a certain proportion, usually not exceeding a tenth part of the whole amount subscribed, and to enter into engagements to pay the remainder whenever due notice is given to them that it is required. By this means, the company is saved from the heavy payments of interest, which would fre- quently be a serious drain on their resources, since they could seldom obtain a larger rate of interest than is yielded by the Public Funds, whilst the shareholders, from the reasons before given, expect an additional interest in proportion to the peculiar risk which they believe they run. The difference between the two rates of interest must be paid by the company out of the premiums received from the assurers. It may be asserted by some parties, that no diffi- culty will be experienced in obtaining 5 per cent, interest on lending out, on good security, the capital borrowed from the proprietors ; but as the very object of the engagement with the shareholders is to have the money always available in case of sudden losses, it would scarcely be prudent either to tie up any amount, where the sum invested could not be immediately realized, or to seek for high rates of interest with increased chances of loss. In whatever way it may be invested, however, it is evident that any amount of capital, larger than is absolutely necessary to render the assured safe, in the event of their own accumulations failing them for the time to meet a particular claim or claims, must be a drag and hindrance to the increase of their business. It checks the growth of the society by diminishing the amount of profit returned to the assured, and a prudent management, if their interest be the same with that of the members, will look closely into every item of unnecessary expen- diture. It is more than probable, that the greater part of the proprietary companies are formed, how r ever, by the shareholders themselves, and the terms are consequently such as to afford them, 96 for the use of their capital, the most favourable terms, which the public are willing to. allow. In most cases the payment of a small portion only of the shave is greatly in their favour, for as the sum appropriated for dividend or bonus upon the shares is in general a proportionate part of the profits, and the amount of which remains the same whether it is to be divided over a greater or a smaller portion of the capital, it, in the latter case, very much enhances the value of the share in the market by increasing the per- centage receivable on the sum actually advanced. Indeed, in this sense, the smaller the amount called up, the more profitable will the result be to the shareholder. But, on the other hand, the assurers may find themselves in a proportionably worse position. The shares in the first instance allotted to persons of whose ability to meet their engagements the Directors have obtained satisfactory evidence, may pass into the hands of others, who are buying them merely as a profitable speculation, and neither intend nor may have the means to complete the contract, to pay up the remainder, when called upon. In case the society should, by a continual course of misfortune or mis-management, have to fall back upon their share holder's assistance, they would probably find that the great inducements held out to the public by a large and guaranteed capital, were merely nominal ; and that repudiation and trickery, such as have so recently disgraced the character of the railway world, would again be the established order of the day. Happily they have hitherto escaped this fate, because hitherto all the good fortune has been on the side of the proprietary bodies ; so much so that, by far the majority of the new companies which have lately sprung up, have been established on this plan of assurance. There remains to be noticed a species of capital, which, though not so clearly at first sight, yet in reality, answers the same pur- pose ; and is to all intents the same protection or guarantee in a Mutual as the subscribed capital is in the Proprietary company. This is the Reserved fund, which, at each division of profits, is set aside to form a security against unusual risks of mortality. This is necessarily larger than need be laid by in a proprietary office ; but where the society consists of a numerous body of members, may with safety be gradually so reduced as to form a very small proportion to the surplus actually divided ; always, however, with 97 the proviso that the Directors have to deal only with a known or established rate of mortality. If it should so happen, that the mortality is increasing from year to year, whilst the number of members remained stationary or actually diminished, a larger reserve would be necessary to meet the increased risk of fluctuation from the average. This is a point, which in a young society, and every one may be called so which has not yet existed for forty or fifty years, would require careful and anxious consideration. In comparing the guarantee afforded by the reserve in the Mutual, with the capital in the Proprietary company, it must be remembered, that in the former the assurers are themselves receiving the annual interest upon the fund set apart, whilst in the latter they are paying away to other parties. As it will be perceived hereafter, that the profits given up to the shareholders, frequently amount even in a very few years, without reckoning the annual interest, to more than the proportion of their shares which they have paid up, it is evi- dent that the assurers might with equal safety have retained it under their own control, for division amongst themselves when the limits of insecurity had been passed. This, however, is a subject which comes more properly under the second head of enquiry, and which it will require another letter fairly to examine. I remain, Sir, your obedient Servant, London, April 14, 1848. CRITO. ON THE CAPITAL OF LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANIES. Letter II. To the Editor of the Post Magazine. Sir, — In continuation of the last letter on this subject, we come now, in the second place, to the consideration of the question, at what cost to the public the system of guaranteeing security to the assurer,by the bargain made with the shareholder, is obtained. Now it is evident that where no trickery is resorted to, to enhance the price, or give a false quotation to shares, the real and intrinsic value of all stocks is that which they bear on the public market. Capitalists soon discover what will afford them the best and most certain rate of interest, and an open competition quickly depresses or raises the shares of an undertaking from the fictitious to the real value. In first introducing to the public notice an undertaking, the merits of which are known only to a few, it is possible that the 98 craft or skill of interested and designing men may enable them to take advantage of public credulity, and dispose of their shares at a premium, which sinks as the real truth gradually, but necessarily becomes known. Whenever it is noticed, that for a considerable period a security, which the holder believes to be as certain as the government funds, is sold at a discount to his imaginary value, so as to pay a much larger interest to the purchaser, he may be sure, that in the long run it is exposed to a peculiar risk which may not be perceptible at first sight. In all these cases we speak of the security referred to, as being open to fair and public competition, when it will almost universally be found, that monied men will neither allow that which is intrinsically good to escape their notice, nor, on the other hand, continue to bid a high price for that which does not possess the elements of stability or prosperity in itself. How stands the case then with Proprietary Life Assurance offices ? The answer is, that the shares of nearly all have quickly risen to a considerable premium, and have reraained so, in spite of all the changes which have taken place in other descriptions of property. The risk to which the holders are liable, of being called upon to pay up the difference, is of course estimated in the price of the day, in the same manner as in railway shares, where the liability to future calls is now the cause of so great depression in the value of all the unfinished lines. The inference is, then, that the assurers are almost in every instance paying more for the guarantee of the shareholders than it is really worth, since it enables the latter to obtain a premium so considerable. Every purchaser at the advanced prices places himself in the position of the original shareholders as to liability, and the premium is, in fact, the measure of the value, which the assurers are giving away out of their own pockets, and for which they receive no return whatever. The case stands thus : A sells to B a property, which C is ready to buy of the latter at a greatly advanced rate, and C would consequently have made better terms with A than B has done. To this it may be replied that when B made the bargain, he was not aware that it would have turned out so favourable to himself. True, but when we see that nearly all similar bargains have been so greatly in favour of the share- holders against the assured, it is not unreasonable to conclude that the latter have not sufficiently considered their own position, or profited by the experience which has preceded them. Indeed, in 99 the prospectus, recently published, of a newly proposed company, the large profits gained by all previous proprietary bodies are held out as a reason for an additional company being sure of success. From whom are these large profits made ? Let the public reflect and answer. It will perhaps hardly be imagined that in 41 companies only enumerated in Mr. Lewis Pocock's useful little work,-" Familiar explanations on the nature, advantages, and importance of Life Assurance," published in 1842, the nominal guaranteed capital was nearly £40,000,000 sterling ; and on looking over a number of prospectuses at the end of 1847, we find 71 offices with a nominal capital of very nearly £56,000,000. Can it be imagined that this amount is ever intended to be called up ? If not, for what purpose does it figure in prospectuses, except to persuade the assurers that if the amount of profit may appear large on the capital actually paid up, it is just that it should be so, because the distant liability to complete the payment of this enormous sum is part of the im- plied contract, and must be remunerated accordingly. On this reasoning it would be both judicious and profitable to the share- holders to double this nominal capital, if advertising such an exten- sion would enlarge the business of the offices ; for the risk would be diminished, and the profits increased. It is difficult to collect a perfect account of the total amount of capital so guaranteed ; of the proportion paid up, and of the present value of the shares ; but the few following cases, extracted from WetenhaH's official list, will sufficiently bear out the preceding observations. TABLE I. Showing the Prices of Shares in Proprietary Life Assurance Companies, on the 4th April, 1848.— From Wetenhall's List. Albion Alliance Atlas British Commercial Clerical, Medical, and General Ea^le Globe Guardian Imperial Law Legal and General Medical, Invalid, and General Rock . No. of Shares. 2,000 50,000 24,000 12,00* 5,000 20,000 Stock. 20,000 7,500 10,000 20,000 10,000 200,000 Amount of Shares. £ 500 ICO 50 100 50 100 100 100 100 50 -so 5 Propor- tion paid up 10 5 100 36 10 10 10 2 2 10 Price. £ s. d 75 17 10 11 2 G 5 17 20 5 17 6 119 41 10 14 10 45 4 10 2 10 4 5 Nominal capital. £ 1,000,000 5,000,000 1.200,000 000,000 500,0001 Total paid tip, Loss to Value. the Assurers £ 100 000 £ 150,000 550,000 875,000 128,000 339,000 .60,000 50,000 70,500 100,000 1,000,000 100,000 117.500 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,190,0(0 2.0CO.000, 730.000J 890,000 750,000! 75,000! 108,750 1;000,000 10(1,000 450,0(0 1.000,000! 40,000 90,000 500,000 20,000| 25,000 1,000,000! 100,000| 850,000 £ 50,000 325,000 211,000 10,500 50,000 17,500 190,000 160,000 33,750 350.000 50,000 5,000 750,000 16,550,0 03053,01 :.202,7£0 2 100 In order that no invidious distinction may appear to be made, the preceding table is taken from a public printed document, and com- prises only those offices to which the prices of the shares were affixed on the date named. There are some against which the number of shares is not given, and others of which the prices are not quoted. What is actually stated is, therefore, merely a sample of what a complete list would be ; but it is probable the result would be nearly in the same proportion. Some of the companies combine the business of fire and life assurance, and consequently profess to need a larger capital ; but as the same doctrine of averages governs the rate of premiums in each, and the mutual system is as applicable to one as the other, the general conclusion showing the large amount of profit, obtained by proprietary com- panies, can hardly be disproved. It is possible, that in some of the offices the number of shares has never been allotted, and if the re- serve were thrown upon the market, the value of the rest would probably be diminished. But this objection w T ould scarcely be suggested by the companies themselves ; for if so, what becomes of the guarantee to the assurers, which depends upon the shares being in the hands of responsible parties, liable to pay up the calls ? The general result of this short table is that upon a paid up capital of £3,053,000, the profit to the proprietary bodies at the prices of the day is £2,202,750 ; being an average gain of upwards of 72 per cent, in the value of the capital, without reckoning the large interest which has been already received, and which has tended to create this enormous increase. In one of these offices, the Guardian, it appears that the original call paid was only £10, and the difference £530,000, though quoted as calls paid up, is really profit, which has accrued upon the shares. This would reduce the proportion actually paid to £2,523,000, and increase the present amount of profit to upwards of 108 per cent. It must not be forgotten that the value thus given is at a period when the public funds have fallen in little more than three years, since January, 1845, nearly 20 per cent., and when all other property may consequently be ex- pected to share in the general depreciation. All this amount of guaranteed capital in the thirteen companies alluded to, must be in addition to the amount arising from the accumulation of the annual premiums : and which must of necessity in these, as well as in 101 every other case in which the shares are at a premium not fictitious, be not only sufficient to meet the liabilities of the company, but, after estimating the value of all claims, to afford a large surplus to the assurers, as well as to the shareholders. If not, the division, which thus enhances the value of the shareholder's property, must be made out of the premium fund, without regard to the claims that may come upon it ; and in that case, woe betide the unfortunate shareholders who are buying at what must then be deemed the present ruinous prices. We do not believe that any respectable companies are resorting to such a dishonest method of increasing the value of the shares, and are compelled to conclude that the as- surers are really paying for this excessive guarantee, whilst they are themselves enjoying a state of prosperity, which, with prudent management, goes far to prove the purchased security an extrava- gant and unnecessary waste of their funds. This brings us to a few observations on the third and last ques- tion, namely, — the advantages to be derived from a proprietary body and a Guarantee Fund ? We are justified in assuming, that on the establishment of every office, care has been taken to ascer- tain that the tables of mortality proposed for the calculations are such as will nearly represent the mortality likely to be experienced amongst the members of the company. If any difference be sup- posed, it is always in favour of the society. It must also be assumed, that in the formation of the table of premiums, the lowest rate of interest has been taken, which, it is probable, will be realized by the investment of the annual surplus. In the latter case, there can be no excuse for falling into an error against the offices, since the prices of the Government funds for so many years may prove an almost c"ertain guide. We may safely conclude, that every company reckons with confidence on obtaining the rate of interest assumed. In fact, therefore, the premiums are of themselves sufficient to cover the ordinary risk which is incurred by the company, and the only guarantee given by the proprietary body, is against a degree of mortality in any particular year, so great as to swallow up all the previous accumulations of premiums and leave the company unable to meet the engagements contracted in the policies. Now there are several advantages enjoyed by the company, which, without any guaranteed capital at all, form in fact a species of reserved fund to 102 meet this very contingency. First, when the Society is in its earlier stages, the difference, at all ages, between the premium for as- surance for the current year, and that which is paid to cover a more distant risk in the extremity of life, in policies made for the whole continuance, is the largest, and consequently of itself affords a surplus to meet the fluctuations in the amount of claims. Thus, at the age of 40, by the Northampton Tables, the premium to assure £100 for the whole continuance of life, is £3.397 ; whilst the pre- mium to cover the risk of paying the same sum in one year only, is £2.028, being a difference or surplus above the actual risk incurred of £1.369, or 67J per cent, on the latter sum. That is to say, that where a payment of £10,000 in the year was calculated upon, the premiums for continuance would allow of an actual payment of £16,750 ; or when 100 deaths were expected, would provide for so large a number as 167, without drawing at all upon the Guarantee Fund. Since no office accepts assurances up to the very extremity of life, a similar difference will be found at every assurable age, diminishing slightly by the Northampton Table as we advance to- wards the older ages. The following little Table will shew the manner in which a surplus fund would thus be created in the first year of assurance ; according to the Northampton rates, for every £100 assured. In offices charging a lower rate of premium at the younger ages, the surplus is considerably greater. TABLE II. Showing the difference between the Annual Premium for continuance and for One Year only, accordiug to the Northampton Rates. Premiums. Age. Whole Life, One Year. Difference. Per cent, on the latter, I 'rem iu in, 30 40 50 GO £ 2667 3.397 4.630 6.366 £ 1.672 2.028 2.754 3.90S £ .995 1.369 1.776 2.458 59 67 61 63 It is true, that this surplus diminishes from year to year, as the age of the assurer increases, thus in the above table, a party assur- ing at the age of 30, would pay £2.667, and would continue to pay the same premium during life. When he has attained to the age of 40, and has consequently been ten years assured, £2.028 would 103 assure him for the year; the difference is, therefore, .639 instead of .995. At the age of 50 the difference is beginning to be on the other side ; but our object is to prove that a surplus arises from the premiums alone, which allows of a very wide fluctuation against the office, at a time when the Guarantee Fund of the shareholders would otherwise be running the greatest risk. As the numbers of the assurers increase, the variation from the average number of deaths becomes less and less. We cannot do better on this head than refer the reader generally to the very valuable and popular " Essay on Probabilities" by Professor de Morgan, a little work which for its sound sense and practical character, if it be not al- ready, deserves to be, in the hands of every one, interested in these subjects. Instead of going into an explanation in this place, of the mathematical reasoning, it will perhaps be sufficient to show by one or two practical examples, the very trifling fluctuation which takes place from year to year in the mortality amongst a large number of lives. TABLE III. Showing the Deviations from the Average Mortality in England for Seven Years, and in the Equitable Society for Four Years, and from the Policies written off in the Equitable Society for Seven Years. Fiom the Registrar General's Seventh Re- Mortality per cent. Number of Policies written port. Deaths per cent. in the Equitable Society, off from the oldest 5000 in England. in the years in the Equitable Society, 1829 to 1832. from 1840 to 1846. Males. Females. 1838 2.340 2.140 1829 2.561 1840 268 1839 2.279 2.096 1830 2.745 1841 247 1840 2.375 2.205 1831 2.743 1842 269 1841 2.238 2.083 1832 3.211 1843 232 1842 2.239 2.095 1844 249 1843 2.198 2.041 1845 251 1844 2.236 2.074 1846 247 Mean 2.272 2.105 2.815 252 Greatest ex- cess above the average .103 -.100 .396 17. By this it will be seen that in the population of England, esti- mated on the 1st of July, 1841, at 15,928,000 the greatest variation in excess above the average mortality in 7 years, was little more than 4| per cent, amongst males, and 4§ per cent, amongst females. The mean number of living from 1829 to 1832 in the Equitable Society 104 was 6,740 ; and the greatest excess of mortality above the average was in 1832, which it will be recollected was a year of unusual sickness. The excess in this year was so great as 14 per cent. ; and may be considered as one of those extreme fluctuations to which an established assurance office would be subject. The ex- cess above the average number of policies, written off from the oldest 5000 policies in seven years, is not equal to 7 per cent, in any one year. These two latter statements are taken from printed documents of the Society ; the first from the publication to which we referred in a former letter on the selection of lives, and the latter from a paper given away with the Prospectuses. The general conclusion then is, that as the assurers increase in number, the fluctuations of mortality diminish or become contracted. There remains yet another point in favour of the office, and that is discrimination in the selection of lives. Most of the tables of premiums, except those formed from the actual experience of the offices, are formed on the supposition that the tables of mortality from which they are drawn, represent the average rate of mortality in the population, from whom the assurers are selected. If the Directors, therefore, by the skill of their medical officers, are en- abled to choose only those lives which are above the average degree of health, it results, both in theory and practice, that the mortality in the first few years at least should be considerably in favour of the company. Against all this, it may be urged, that the public would rather purchase security at any price. It may be so, if they are ignorant of the extreme improbability that their own funds should be inadequate to meet the early claims ; but if they consider these reasonings, which we trust are made simple and clear enough for the ordinary man of business, they may deem on the contrary, that the guarantee of other parties may be purchased too dearly, and that it would be quite as safe and far more profit- able for each living member to contribute his proportion of the claim of the deceased member, in the improbable case that they should be so unfortunate as to have lost the whole of the accumu- lations of their own funds. They may rely upon it, that, with a due number of members and proper management, such an event must have been preceded by a general calamity or sickness, such as would render doubtful even the guarantee of the most respect- 105 able proprietary. One argument may be, and has been strongly urged in prospectuses in favour of some Proprietary companies, that the shareholders are compelled by their agreement to assure or to keep on foot assurances, in proportion to the amount of their shares. To this it may be answered, that as they take the profit in a double capacity, both as shareholders and assurers, this can in no wise benefit the other members of the company. It only places them in the very singular position, so far as these policies are con- cerned, of guaranteeing themselves payment of their own claims. In other cases it is stated, that there is both a Guarantee Fund and a Reserved Fund ; thus the Clerical, Medical, and General distribute one-half of the profits to the assurers, one-sixth to the proprietors, and one-third is reserved ; the Westminster and General gives four- fifths of the profits to the assured, one-tenth to the subscribers, and one-tenth to the guarantee, or, what may be called, the reserved fund. This appears to be equivalent to saying that the assurers maintain a reserved fund for their own benefit, and a guarantee fund for the benefit of the proprietors, who thus enjoy the remu- neration for the latter without incurring the risk. Is our object then to point to any violent derangement of existing proprietary companies ? Certainly not. This would indeed be to patronize revolution on an extensive scale, and of this we have enough already. What is theoretically good, it may yet be the very wan- tonness of mischief to force into immediate practice. Rights may be established — engagements contracted — legal and equitable difficulties may lie in the way of the alteration of a system, which might nevertheless be proved to be defective by reasoning, which cannot be denied. The attempt to correct hastily even an acknow- ledged evil may end in a thousand mischiefs more fatal than those existing. Bickerings and disputes might lead to want of confidence, and want of confidence to ruin ; but if the assurers, in a well established company, had it in their power, by mutual agreement with the shareholders, to persuade them to give up their claims for a more than just — a liberal compensation, they might hereafter obtain for themselves the full benefit of their own resources, which are now being paid away for what cannot but be considered in many cases, merely imaginary advantages. A few of the offices have already had the wisdom to propose some such amicable arrange- p 106 ments, and the shareholders the good sense to accede to them. The assurers in the Economic, for instance, in 1844, paid off their shareholders with 100 per cent, profit, and are now flourishing as a purely mutual company. The Westminster and General also propose that the subscribed capital shall be eventually paid off, and the Society thenceforth conducted on mutual principles. The Imperial from 1820 to 1841, divided profits only once in every ten years, and the shareholders then received one-third of the surplus, but, at the latter period, an Act of Parliament was obtained enabling them to divide every five years, and the shareholders voluntarily consented to receive one-fifth instead of one-third of the profits. The shareholders in the Victoria have in the last year, voluntarily reduced their claims from one-half to one-fifth of the profits, but are entitled to receive 5 instead of 4 per cent, on the paid up capital, a moderate and judicious compensation. The directors of the Rock have advertised their intention of applying to Parliament for power to make, with the concurrence of their share- holders, some very important and extensive alterations, which will offer much greater advantages to the public, and probably open up a new career of prosperity to the company. These are merely cited as instances, that the difficulties are not insuperable, and that the advantages of the course suggested are recognized even in existing companies. The assurers may at least, in all future bargains with proprietary bodies, consider whether the terms hitherto granted have not in general been somewhat exorbitant, but if on reflection, they are satisfied with the result, we can only congratulate the shareholders on having had the good fortune so " to win the favour of a discerning public." I remain, Sir, Your obedient servant, CRITO. London, April 20th, 1848. 107 ON APPROXIMATIONS TO THE VALUES OF ANNUITIES ON JOINT LIVES. Letter I. To the Editor of The Post Magazine. Sir, — I do not remember any work, in which the following very simple method of obtaining an approximation to the values of annuities on joint lives at the next higher or lower rate of interest, from any Tables of Mortality, from which the values of annuities on Joint Lives are already calculated, for three rates of interest (with equal intervals), or at the two next higher or lower rates, where those at four rates per cent, (with equal intervals), have been already computed. From the very great labour necessary to form such Tables, involving, from the combination of each age with every other age, the necessity of several thousand calculations, any approximation which needs but a small amount of time and labour, and does not greatly err from the truth, will be of great assistance to those who may occasionally require the values of annuities on Joint Lives at rates one or two per cent, higher than those given in existing Tables. This approximation is derived from the calculus of finite differences, and the rule is so exceedingly short and simple, that even if it should happen to be already known to some of your readers, whose professional studies have led them to improvements in the application of the doctrines of Life Assurance, it deserves to be more generally spread abroad. The rule is merely this : — Rule 1. — Having the Values of Annuities on Joint Lives at Three Rates of Interest (with equal intervals) from any Table of Mortality given, — to find an Approximate Value at the next Higher or at the next Lower Rate of Interest. For the first, — From the value at the lowest given rate of interest, deduct three times the difference between the values at the other two rates. For the second, — Merely reverse the operation. To the value at the highest rate of interest, add three times the difference between the values at the other two rates. In the former case, the error will always be a plus quantity, and in the latter a minus quantity. The result in each case will be an approximate value for every combination of ages, so near the truth as to appear quite surprising, from the small amount of labour required in the computation. This rule possesses many advantages in the particular cases ■ ' p 2 108 named, over the approximations at present given in the standard works on Annuities, which we will presently examine. First, — Its extreme shortness and simplicity, and that it is equally applicable to Single Lives as to Joint Lives. Second, — That it may be known to a certainty, on which side of the truth the error lies. Third, — Considering merely the difference in ages, that the error is always the greatest where the pairs of Joint Lives are at equal ages (not a frequent occurrence), and diminishes in proportion as the difference in the ages is greater. Fourth, — Considering the ages merely, — that the error is always greatest at the youngest lives, and diminishes with every increase of age. And Fifth, — That the error always diminishes in proportion, as the value sought is at a higher rate of interest (the most frequent case required). The principal point to be considered is the comparative accuracy of the results by this rule, and in order to explain this by Tables, to which the reader can refer, I will take the values of Single and Joint Lives from the Northampton and Carlisle Tables, the former being given for 3, 4, 5, and 6 per cent, in Dr. Price's " Observa- tions on Reversionary Payments," and the latter, for every com- bination of ages, in " Milne's Treatise," — both of which, will be found reprinted in Mr. David Jones's very useful work on the " Values of Annuities and Reversionary Payments." To compare with these I have also added the yalues of Single and Joint Lives, deduced from the combined experience of several of the Life Assurance Companies, from which a complete collection of Tables has been computed and published by Mr. Jenkin Jones. I have only given the comparison from Mr. Edmonds' Table for Single Lives, and at the equal ages of Joint Lives, because it is probable that as his Tables are formed upon the hypothesis of a certain Law of Mortality, and the probability of dying in a year increases at every age in a regular progression up to the age of 55 ; and thence with the same law, but at an increased rate, to the end of life, a rule could be found which would give the exact value at any given rate of interest for Joint Lives as well as Single Lives. The following Tables, therefore, show the values of Annuities on Joint Lives at 6 per cent., deduced by the rule above given, from the values at the same ages at 3, 4, and 5 per cent. ; and to prove its general application, also the values of Single Lives, from the North- ampton and Carlisle Tables ; in every case marking the error, which may be verified by turning to the correct values in the original Tables. 109 TABLE I. Values of Annuities on Single Lives at 6 per cent., deduced from those at 3, 4, 5, per cent. Northampton. Carlisle. Error by Milne's approximation from the Expec- tation. Age. Value of Annuity. Error.+ Value of Annuity. Error. + 10 30 50 70 90 13.511 11.795 9.451 5.720 1.689 .226 .113 .034 .004 nil. 14.764 13.169 10.676 6.004 2.268 .316 .149 .045 .006 .002 -1.212 - .651 - .345 - .023 TABLE II. Values of Annuities on Single Lives at 8 per cent., deduced from those at 5, 6, 7, per cent. Northampton. Carlisle. Value of Annuity, j Error. + Value of Annuity. Error, -f 10 30 50 70 90 10.811 .197 9.643 .059 8061 .020 5.177 .001 1.624 -.001 11.476 10.571 9.014 5.412 2.135 .142 .073 .027 .002 .002 In comparing the error by Milne's approximation, deduced from the Expectation, with that produced by using the preceding rule, the errors in the latter, must be considered all minus ; Mr. Milne's values being those at 3 per cent., and the errors, by the rule, of the values at 3 per cent., deduced from 4, 5, and 6 per cent., being just the reverse of those at 6 per cent., deduced from 3, 4, and 5 per cent. TABLE III. Values of Annuities on Joint Lives, at 6 per cent., deduced from those at 3, 4, and 5 per cent. Northampton. Carlisle. Experience of Offices. Edmonds' Mean Mortality. Ages. Value. Error. Value. Error. Value. Error. Value. Error. 10.10 11.476 .131 13.225 .189 13.036 .185 12.709 .161 80.30 9.415 .055 11.251 .078 11.543 .080 10.705 .063 50.50 7.037 .007 8.638 .021 8.295 .015 7.913 .014 70.70 3.790 .009 4.028 nil. 3.751 nil. 3.532 .001 90.90 .899 .004 1.025 nil. .673 nil. .833 nil. 110 Difference of Ages Ten Years. Ages. Northampton. Carlisle. Value . Error, -f- Value. Error, -f 10.20 30.40 50 60 70.80 10.804 8.826 6.198 2.597 .085 .031 .009 .001 12.744 10.579 7.136 2.926 .150 .053 .009 .G01 Difference of Ages Twenty Years. 10.30 30.50 50.70 70.90 10.304 7.985 4.826 1.458 12.089 9.584 5.420 1-831 .116 .030 .005 nil. Difference of Ages Thirty Years. 10.40 30.60 50.80 9.578 6.848 3.041 .041 .011 .002 11.234 7.657 3.610 .067 .012 .003 Difference of Ages Forty Years. 10.50 8.569 . .021 10.067 .039 30.70 5.182 .002 5.651 .003 50.90 1.589 .001 2.155 .002 The preceding Tables are useful, not merely for examples, but in practice ; because, as the error always diminishes after any given age, and at any higher rate of interest at the same age, whoever uses the approximation will see at a glance whether it will come sufficiently near to the correct value, according to these Tables of observation, to answer his purpose. If greater accuracy be required, the following equally simple and almost equally short rule, may be applied to deduce from the four rates, which are published, the value of Annuities on the Joint Lives at the next higher or next lower rate. -R n \e 2.— Having the Values of Annuities on Joint Lives at Four Rates of Interest (with equal intervals), from any Table of Mortality given, — to find an Approximate Value at the next Higher or the next Lower Rate of Interest. Begin with the lowest value, and take the differences between the values at the given rates of Interest ; call these differences b, c, d, — then add to the first value four times d, and deduct twice the difference between b and c. Ill The result will be very near indeed to the value at the next lowest rate of interest. If the value sought be a lower value, take the differences, beginning with the highest value, and merely reverse the first sign in the above rule, deducting four times d, instead of adding it. The errors by the former rule were, in every case, the third difference of the first term of the series of values ; by this rule they will be the same as the fourth difference, and seldom exceed a fourth or a fifth part of the former errors. It should, however, be particularly remarked, that the approximate value by the latter rule, (whether the series of values be increasing, or decreasing,) will in every case be less than the truth. The reader must judge whether they will in either case be too great for his object ; but they appear to me to be so small, that the approximate value, even by the first rule, is sufficiently near for every ordinary purpose of business. I have not thought it neces- sary to show how any more distant term could be obtained by a more general rule ; because the error would be too great, if the values at much higher rates of interest were sought to be deduced from existing Tables, and as the chief advantages of the rules given are the few operations they require, and their great simplicity, they would lose in favour, perhaps, by the calculator having to take out a greater number of differences. I now proceed to show how the rules are formed. They are both derived from the common theorem, in the calculus of finite differences, n— 1 a n =: a -\- n A a -\- n. A 2 a 2 n . n — 1 . n — 2 -\ A 3 a . . . (n -\- 1 terms) 2 . 3 by taking only n terms of the series, and neglecting the last as comparatively very small ; and being in fact, in every case, the difference between the approximate and the correct value, or the error which we have noticed in the examples. Let the values at the given rates of interest be, a, a lt a 2i and let a n be the value sought. a a x a 2 First differences Aa A«! Second difference A 2 a Then, if the series is increasing, a 4. 3 A a + 3 A 2 a -\- A 3 a = a n take only the first three terms: but A a -\- A 2 a = A a lt and therefore 3 A a -|- 3 A 2 « == 3 A «i ; and consequently (neglecting the last term), a -f- 3 A a i = a n very nearly. 112 When the series of values is decreasing, the first difference will be — the second -\- ; and — Ao-f A 2 at — Aa x : therefore, in a decreasing series, a — 3 A a 1 — a n very nearly. This is the expression from which the first rule is derived, when only three values are given. For the second, in which four values are given, the series and the differences will be carried one term further : thus, a a x a 8 a 3 Aa Aa^ Aa 2 A 2 a A-a x A 3 a Then, if the series is increasing, a -f 4 A a -f 6 A 2 a + 4 A 3 a -+- A*a = a n Take only the first four terms. But A a -\- A 2 a =: A a x ; and A a a -\- A'a l : therefore, 4 A a -f 4 A«a = 4 Aa 2 -f- 2 A 2 a -f- 4 A 3 a = +4 A 2 ^ — 2 A 3 a 4 A a -j- 6 A 2 a -f- 4 A 3 a = 4 Aa^ + 4 A 2 a 2 — 2 A 2 a but 4 A a A -f 4 A 8 ^ =4Aa a ; and consequently a -\- 4 A a^ — 2A s a = 8„ very nearly. If the series of values is decreasing, every alternate sign in the equation will be reversed, the first differences being minus ; thus, a — 4 A a + 6 A 2 a — 4 A 3 a + A*a 5= a» By reasoning in the same manner as before, it will be found that — 4 A a + 6 A 2 a — 4 A 3 a = -4Aa 1 +4 A 3 d 1 — 2 A 2 a but — 4Aa l -|-4A 2 a 1 ss — 4Aa 4 ; arfd consequently, when the series of values is decreasing, a — 4 A a a -\- 2 A^a = a M very nearly. It will appear plain from the two equations, why, by the first rule, the error in the approximation is always a minus quantity when the series of values is increasing, and plus when it is decreasing; because, in the former case, the third difference being plus and neglected in the approximation, will leave the value found less than the truth; whereas, in a decreasing series, the third difference being minus, and neglected in the approximation, will leave the value found more than the truth. . By the second rule, one term more being taken, the fourth difference will, in each case, be a plus quantity, and being neglected in the approximation, will leave the value found in each case less than the truth. It will easily be perceived, from the preceding reasoning, that another rule may be given to deduce the values of annuities on joint lives, at eight per cent, or at one per cent., having, as before, the values at three, four, five, and six per cent. It might be 113 sufficiently correct for a rough approximation, where the lives are past the middle ages, or where there is a great difference in their ages ; but as the errors in this case would be five times the fourth difference, added to the fifth difference, the result would scarcely be near enough to the truth to render it generally useful. In a descending series of values, also, the error will be greater than in an ascending series. In each case, however, the errors will be minus. By applying the rule to the differences of the logarithms, instead of those of the natural numbers, the error will be very small indeed. Rule 3 — Having the values of annuities on the Joint Lives at four rates of interest (with equal intervals) — to deduce the values at the second lower or second higher rate. For the first : — take the differences as in Rule 2, beginning with the lowest value. Then, add to this value five times, b, and ten times the difference between c, and d. For the second : — 'take the differences, beginning with the highest value, and proceed as above, merely reversing the sign of b, and deducting five times b, instead of adding it. Example. — Carlisle Table. Single Life Annuities. 8, from 3, 4, 5, 6, per cent. 3, from 5, 6, 7, 8, per cent. Age. Value. Error. — Error by Log. Value. Error.— Error by Log. 10 40 70 10.797 9.758 5.403 .537 .117 .007 .038 .012 23.149 17.035 7.110 .363 .108 .013 .006 .042 I now proceed to give examples for the two former rules, and choose the Carlisle Table, as showing wider differences between the values than the Northampton Table. I have also given the rates at 7 and 8 per cent., in order to exhibit more clearly the amount and nature of the error in the approximation. Carlisle Table. — Single Life Annuities. — Age 40. Rates per cent. 3 4 5 6 7 8~~ Values 17.143 15.074 13.390 12.002 10.845 9.875 First differences 2.069 1.684 1.388 1.157 .970 Second .385 .296 .231 .187 Third .089 .065 .044 Fourth .024 .021 Fifth difference .003 By the first rule, from the values of the Annuity at 3, 4, and 5, deduce the value at 6 per cent. 17-143 — (3 X 1-684) = 12-091 Error -f- -089 = the third difference. Q 114 By the same rule, from the values at 5, 6, and 7, deduce the value at 4 per cent. 10-845 + ( 3 X 1*388) = 15-009 Error — -065 = the third difference. By the second rule, from the values at 3, 4, 5 and 6 per cent., deduce the value at 7 per cent. 17-143 _ (2 x "385 -f 4 X 1*388) = 10 821 Error — -024 ==. the fourth difference. By the second rule, from the values at 4, 5, 6, and 7, deduce the value at 3 per cent. 10-S45 -f 4 X 1-684 — 2 X "231 = 17-119 Error — -024 = the fourth difference. In the application of these two rules to practical purposes, it is evident that for the former there are required Tables of Annuities at three rates of interest (with equal intervals), and for the latter at four similar rates. Where a greater number is published, it will be easy to extend the principle on which they are grounded, to ensure a very close degree of accuracy for the next or the two following /ates with but little addition to the labour of calculation. For the computations on Single Lives most works on Annuities contain Tables at three or four rates of interest at least ; but it is for the saving of the time and labour in the ordinary mode of approximating to the values of Annuities on Joint Lives, that I would venture to recommend these simple rules, and the number of such Tables is more restricted. The following are the only Tables of the kind to which at present I could suggest their application. 1. — The Northampton Tables, in Dr. Price's Works, showing the values of Annuities on the Joint Continuance of Two Lives, at 3, 4, 5, and 6 per cent, interest. 2. — Milne's Carlisle Table, for the same and at the same rates. Both these Tables are republished in Mr. David Jones's Treatise. 3.— Edmonds' Theoretical Tables of Mean Mortality for the same rates of interest. 4. — Tables of Annuities for the Joint Lives, deduced from the experience of the Life Assurance Companies, and published by Mr. Jenkin Jones, for the above rates. There are other Tables of Annuities on Joint Lives, deduced from vaiious observations, but no other work, which I can call to mind, containing those for three or more rates of interest (at equal intervals), from the same observations, with the exception of a Table in Simpson's Select Exercises, deduced from the Probabilities 115 of Life in London, and republished by Dr. Price, and also in Baily's work on Life Annuities ; but which Tables would now be of no practical value. Baron Maseres, in 1783, published two Tables of Annuities on Joint Lives, computed to six places of decimals, from De Parcieux's observations, at 3J and 4J per cent. These will be found reprinted in Baily's " Doctrine of Life Annuities and Assurances." There is also in Dr. Price's works, a Table of the values of Annuities on Joint Lives from the Sweden observations (males and females collectively), at 4 per cent., which is likewise copied in Baily's work. In the Registrar General's Sixth's Report, Mr. Farr gives the values of an Annuity at 3 per cent, on the Joint Lives of a Male and Female at equal ages, or the Female being 10 or 20 years younger than the Male, deduced from the English Life Table, which was formed from the mortality in England for one year, and the number living at the last Census ; and a similar Table for the Joint Continuance of a Male and Female Life, computed at 3 and 5 per cent., from the observations at Chester, i3 published by Mr. David Jones, in the treatise before referred to. As far as I can remember, therefore, there are no Tables available for the three rules given in this paper, except the four Tables numbered ; but two of them are in such constant use, that if the values of Annuities on Joint Lives at 7 and 8 per cent, should be required, they would probably at present be used in preference to any of the more recent Tables. It remains only to examine the approximations to the values of Joint Lives at present recommended in standard works. Dr. Price, in his " Observations on Reversionary Payments," vol. I., page 227, 7th edition, gives a rule to ascertain the values of the Joint Lives, as derived from the Expectation, on the hypothesis of an equal decrement of life annually ; and in note (L) at the end of the same volume, will be found the formula, which Mr. Morgan has explained in another note. The value of an annuity on the Joint Lives, at any given age, and at any one rate of interest, being computed, then the difference between this value and that derived from the Expectation, according to the rule, must be added to or deducted from the value obtained by the same rule, at the required rate of interest, according as the correct value is more or less than Q 2 116 that derived from the hypothesis in the first instance. Dr. Price considers that, by this rule, the deduced values are sometimes almost the same with the correct values ; that generally they do not differ more than one-twentieth or one-thirtieth of a year's purchase ; that in Joint Lives they differ less than in Single lives ; and that the values come equally near to one another, whatever the rate of interest may be. Milne, vol. I., page 266, referring to Dr. Price's hypothesis, concludes, with him, that u as the values between different rates of interest are nearly equal, and the proximate ones are determined from them by the same method of approxima- tion, it is evident that the error in one approximation must be very nearly equal to that in the other, and consequently that the difference between them will be much less than either of the errors themselves." This approximation requires the value of an Annuity on the Joint Lives to be deduced twice from the Ex pectations, on the hypothesis of an equal decrement of life annually — once at the rate of interest, at which the correct value is known; and secondly — at that at which the value is sought. Mr. Milne's formula somewhat shortens the rule delivered by Dr. Price, and I give it in words at length. Price's and Milne's approximation to the values of Joint Lives. Rule. A.dd half a year to the perpetuity and the Expectation of the older life, and deduct from the sum the Expectation of the younger life. Mul- tiply the last difference by the present value of an Annuity certain of £1, for a term equal to the complement (or twice the Expectation) _ of the older life divided by the said complement, and deduct the product from the perpetuity. Multiply the last difference by £1, increased by its interest for a year, and divided by the Expectation of the younger life, and deduct the product from unity. This last difference, multiplied by the Perpetuity, will be the approximate value of an annuity on the Two Joint Lives, deduced from their Expec- tation. Having ascertained the approximate values of the Joint lives by this rule, at the two different rates of interest, find the difference between them, and add it to, or deduct it from the correct value at the known rate of interest, according as the value deduced from the Expectation is greater or less than the correct value known. These operations are somewhat long and laborious, but the rule possesses the great advantage of being applicable to any table, from which the Expectations of life at all ages, and the values of Annui- ties for Joint Lives at one rate of interest only, have been computed ; since it is found that the difference is not very great between the 117 approximate and correct value, at whatever rate of interest the latter may be required. In the Appendix to the Registrar General's Sixth Report, 1844, p. 590, Mr. Farr gives a Table of the Expectations of the Joint Lives of a male and female, deduced from the English Life Table ; and, in Mr. David Jones's work, will be found the Curtate Expectation of the Joint Lives (*' being the average number of years, which the two lives jointly complete, exclusive of the frac- tion, which they jointly enjoy, of the year in which the joint exist- ence fails"), computed from the Carlisle Table, for every yearly difference of age. It is probable that these Expectations may be used in the same manner as those of a Single Life (for which see Milne's treatise), as a substitute for the long operation required by the above rule. As an instance of which, it may be stated, that the value of an Annuity on the Joint Lives of 30 and 40 by the Carlisle Table at 5 per cent, deduced from the correct value at 4 per cent., and using the Curtate Expectation above mentioned + .5 is found to be 11.610, differing only -.003 from the true value. I shall conclude with one other approximation, suggested by Baron Maseres, in his work on the principles of " The Doctrine of Life Annuities," published in 1783. In this work, the learned Baron, in his desire " to explain these principles in an easy and familiar manner, so as to make them intelligible to as many readers as possible, without having recourse to Algebra, or the books written on the Doctrine of Chances," has become rather prolix and weari- some. Computations are seldom considered as very lively reading, and when we have to follow every step of the process to the mil- lionth part of £1, they may end in being fatiguing, if not confusing. This minute attempt at accuracy, also, appears unnecessary, where the result of the approximation itself frequently differs more than 4 per cent, from the correct value. Still the work is that of an in- genious mathematician, and the approximation referred to, which is described in p. 546, is so much shorter than Milne's, that if it can be found by other tables to be rather nearer the truth than it appears to be by De Parcieux's Tables, it is worthy of attention. Maseres, having computed the values of joint lives at 3 J and 4| per cent., considers that we can obtain sufficiently near values at three, four, and five per cent., by assuming that the values will form pretty 118 nearly an arithmetical progression, or that they decrease by nearly equal differences. But above five, or under three per cent., he is inclined to think this method not sufficiently correct, and he gives a formula, which, after getting rid of the equivalent quantities, and expressing it in a more convenient notation, may be described as follows : — Let r =r £1 with its interest for a year. A = the younger life, B the older, and B the value of an annuity on the older life p p x z=. the probability of living a year at the age of A, and at one year older than A q q x = the same at the age of B, and one year older than B r—q l then B.p. =z the value of Annuity on the Joint Lives nearly. m • f— -Pi*7i This rule, expressed in words,will be (A being the younger and B the older life) : — Approximation to the value of an Annuity on Two Joint Lives by Maseres. Rule. — From £1 increased by its interest for a year, deduct the probability of a life one year older than B living a year ; and also the probability of two lives, each one year older than the given lives, both living a year, and divide the former remainder by the latter. Multiply the quotient into the probability of A living a year, and also into the value of an Annuity on the life of B. The product will be the value of an annuity on the joint lives nearly. This rule requires only for its application the values of Annuities for Single Lives, and the Table of Observations from which they are deduced. It dispenses with the Expectations, and, it will be seen, is much shorter than Price's and Milne's rule, and, like those, it professes to apply to any table, and at any rates of interest. It does not appear, however, to approach so near to the truth by De Parcieux's Table, from which Maseres has made his compu- tations, nor by the Northampton Table, from which the following comparison of all the rules is given. True values of Joint Lives compared with approximations, Northampton 3 per cent. Ages. True value. Deduced from 4,5,6, per cent. Rule 2. Error. — Price's approxima- tion from 4 per cent. Error. Maseres' approxi- mation. Error. 15.15 40.40 60.60 15.40 30.60 50.60 15.229 10.763 6.606 12.459 8.378 7.461 .109 .030 .013 .039 .011 .009 -.045 -.008 +.086 -.091 +.018 +.010 +.413 -.453 -.585 -.256 -.577 -.104 119 In conclusion, I may observe, that though the rules which I have given, deducing the values from those at three or four existing rates of interest, can only be used with sufficient accuracy in the next or in the two next rates, either higher or lower, yet in these they will save so much time and labour, that I cannot but believe their pub- lication may be useful to many persons engaged in the business of Life Assurance. I remain, Sir, Your obedient servant, CRITO. London, 15th January, 1849. ON APPROXIMATIONS TO THE VALUES OF ANNUITIES ON JOINT LIVES. Letter II. Sir, — Before proceeding to show that the formula for approxi- mating to the values of annuities on Joint Lives is equally applic- able to fractional values of w, or to rates of interest at any intermediate values to those which are known, I may remark, that in the course of taking out the differences to prove the practical usefulness of the former rules, I had noticed, that by using the ratios of increase or decrease from the value at one rate of interest to that at another, instead of the mere differences of the values, a greater approach to correctness, might be obtained, and conse- quently that with a slight addition of labour, the rule might be applied with much advantage to the differences of the logarithms, instead of those of the natural numbers. I am gratified also, in acknowledging a suggestion to the same effect, made by Mr. Ed- monds, who correctly anticipated that the deviation from the true value would by this method be still less. Above the age of 50, for either single or joint lives, the errors are so small by applying the rule to the differences of the natural numbers, that it is unnecessary to resort to the trouble of taking out the logarithms ; but below that age, if greater exactness be required, I repeat the rule as ap- plied to logarithms, and add some examples of the nearer approxi- mation to the true values, which may be obtained by its use in this manner. 120 Having the values of Annuities on Joint Lives at three rates of interest (with equal intervals) given, to find an approximation to the value at the next higher or the next lower rate : Rule, for the former : — From the logarithm of the value at the lowest given rate of interest, deduct three times the difference between the logarithms of the values at the other two rates. For the latter : — To the logarithm of the value at the highest given rate of interest, add three times the difference of the logarithms of the values at the other two rates. Comparison of the errors by the above rule, as applied to the logarithms or the natural numbers : 6 deduced from 3, 4, and 5 per cent. Annuities on Single Lives. Age. 10 so 50 Northampton. Error By natural number. By log .226 .113 .034 .035 .018 .003 Carlisle. Error By natural number. By Log - . .316 .149 .045 .052 021 008 Annuities on Joint Lives. Ages. Northampton. Carlisle. Em By natural number. r By Log. * Error. By natural number. 1 By Log. 10.10 30.30 50.50 .131 .055 .007 .035 .018 .001 .189 .078 .021 .031 .012 .005 10.20 30.40 .085 .031 .016 .006 .150 .053 .023 .006 10.30 30.50 .065 .019 .012 .003 .116 .030 .022 .004 10.40 .041 .006 .067 .009 We now come to the application of the formula to the fractional values of n, or to the values at rates of interest intermediate to those already known. The formula remains the same as before, and n may represent any rate oF interest lying between the rates of 3 and 6 per cent., or with the slight variation from the truth which our examples have shown, even between one or two per cent, above or below these known rates. Greater exactness may be obtained by using the differences between the values at four rates of interest, but I believe that in practice it will be found quite sufficient to The co-efficient of the first dif- ference of a. The co-efficient of the second difference of a. n =r | then « = 1 M n = If „ »=1| „ + i + f :! + f -h + & + § 121 take only the differences between the values at three of the known rates, for those at any rate between them. My present object is therefore only to give a few rules, expressed in words, to obtain the values most frequently required, and to prove the close approxima- tion, computed from only three rates of interest, by examples from existing tables. Let the lowest given value be called a. (1) Let n (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Rule 1. — Having the values of Single and Joint Lives at 3, 4, and 5 per cent, to find the value at 4§ per cent. Beginning with the lowest given value, take the differences between the values of 5 and 4, and 4 and 3 per cent. Call the former difference b, and the latter c, and also take the difference between b and c, which call d. In this case n in the formula = k. Then add to the given value at 5 per cent. | of b, and deduct from the sum ioftf. Carlisle. Single Lives. Age 40 Kates per cent. 5 4 3 4^ 3^ Values . . 13.390 15.074 17.143 14.189 16.053 1st difference 1.684 2.069 2nd difference .385 Example 13.390 + 1^ — £ 8 JL = 14.184 Error -.005 2 8 Rule 2. — Having the same values given, to find the value at 3§ per cent. In this case n in the formula =. 1| Using the same notation as above, add f of b to | of d, and then add three times their sum to the lowest given value. Example 13.390 + 3 fll 6 _^-f _'i?£^ 3 = 16.060 Error 4- .007 V 2 8 / With only the three differences called b, c, d, which are required for the working of these rules, it will be found shorter and more convenient in fractional rates per cent, to use the second difference of a, instead of reducing the equation to terms of the first difference, as was the case in Rule I. given in the former letter. I believe that no tables of Life Annuities have been printed at rates differing from each other less than half per cent., either for Single or Joint lives. We cannot, therefore, readily find examples of the comparative correctness of the rule* applied to annuities on R 122 Lives at rates which vary by only a quarter per cent., but in a work published about ten years ago by Mr. Peter Hardy, the highly talented Actuary of the Mutual Life Assurance Society, entitled " The Doctrine of Simple and Compound Interest, Annuities and Reversions, analytically and practically explained"* will be found tables of the amounts and present values of sums and annuities at compound interest, for every ± per cent, up to 5 per cent. Taking from this work the present values of annuities certain, the following table will show the errors arising from the rule in deducing the values at 4^ and 4J per cent, from the values at 3, 4, and 5 per cent. Any other terms of years or rates might be assumed, but I did not wish to overload this paper with figures beyond what are necessary to show the practical working of the rule where the errors can be compared with the true values according to existing tables. The remainder of the examples are taken from the Carlisle Table, from which the values of annuities on Single and Joint lives have been computed at 3| and 4^ per cent., and will be found in Mr. David Jones's work before referred to. Deduced by the rule from the values at 3, 4, and 5 per cent. Annuities certain. 10 20 30 40 4| per cent. Value. Error 7.8161 12.7293 15.8158 17.7529 4£ per cent. Value. Error. 8.0107 13.2933 16.7756 19.0697 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0075 * In referring to this little work, I cannot but express my regret, in com- mon with many others, that Mr. Hardy should have been prevented by his important official duties, or active occupations, from continuing the " Trea- tise on the Doctrine of Life Assurance and Annuities," of which this valuable Essay is stated to be only the introduction. From the clearness and elegance of the mathematical reasoning in these preliminary chapters, and from a short Essay on " A new and General Notation for Life Contin- gencies," also published in 1840, which contains the most comprehensive and masterly system of notation which has yet been proposed by any writer on the subject, the public will be prepared to judge of the high qualifications which he would bring to the task, whilst those members of the profession who, having the pleasure of knowing him, are still more intimately acquainted with his distinguished abilities and great mathematical attain- ments, would welcome the completion of the proposed work, as one which could not fail to add to the improvements of all preceding writers, and to place in the clearest light that which still may be obscure to the young student. The practical experience of the accomplished author for so many years in the business both of Assurance and Reversionary Interest Com- panies, and in all cases which come before the notice of an Actuary, would invest the treatise with a ralue which the book of a mere closet mathema- tician could not be expected to possess. 123 Carlisle Table. Annuities on Single Lives. Ages. i\ per cent. Error. — 3$ per cent. Error. + 10 30 50 70 17.999 15.715 12.236 6.517 .023 .011 .003 nil 21.421 18 132 13.558 6.911 .026 .011 .004 nil Carlisle Table. Annuities on Joint lives. 10.10 15.842 .013 18.422 .015 30.30 13.131 .006 14.814 .006 50.50 6.661 .002 10.486 nil 70.70 4.277 .001 4.459 nil Having thus shown by examples how useful the Theorem which I pointed out in my last letter will be found both from its near ap- proximation to the truth, its simplicity, its shortness, and the facility with which it can be retained in memory, I will leave it to the reader to pursue the subject at greater length, if it should be thought to deserve more attention. I remain, Sir, Your obedient servant, CRITO. London, 14th March, 1849. 124 INDEX. A. Page. Admissions into Hospitals in Bengal Presidency, amongst European Troops . . . . . . . . . 57 ,, „ Native Troops 59 „ in Madras Presidency, amongst European Troops 62 „ „ Native Troops . 63 ,, at Moulmein, amongst European Troops . . 74 „ „ Native Troops . . 74 „ in Ceylon, amongst European Troops . .77 „ ,, Black and Native Troops . 80 „ „ Pioneer Corps . .81 „ „ Gun Lascars . . .81 ,, „ Armed Lascoreyns. . . 81 ,, in Bombay Presidency, amongst European Troops 84 ,, . ,, Native Troops . 85 Ages, Mortality according to, amongst Native Troops in Bombay Presidency . . . . . . . .87 Amicable Society — Comparison of mean duration of life amongst old and recent members with Northampton Table . . .10 „ Experience of, as examined by Mr. Edmonds . 26 „ „ corresponds with Edmonds' Village Table, two years older . . . .26 „ Proportion entering at different ages . . 32 Annesley, Dr., Medical Returns from Madras Presidency . . 64 Approximations to the_Values of Annuities on Joint Lives' . .107 „ Rule, having the values at three rates of interest, to deduce the value at the next higher or lower rate . 110 ,, „ at four rates . . . 113 „ „ applied to the Logarithms of the Values . 120 -„ „ „ to fractional rates of Interest . .121 . 114 . 115 . 117 „ Tables, to which the rules can be applied „ by Dr. Price .... ,, by Baron Maseres Average Mortality, Deviations from, amongst Lives and Policies very small 104 125 B. Page. Balfour, Dr., Statistical Report on the Sickness and Mortality amongst the Troops serving in the Madras Presidency . . .57 Bengal Presidency, Mortality amongst'European Troops in .57 „ „ Native Troops . . .59 Bombay Presidency, General description of . . .8 Mortality [amongst European Troops in .84 „ H.M.'s Troops . . .85 „ Native Troops . . .85 „ Do., according to ages . 87 ,, Do., of Troops in Scinde, and not in Scinde. . . . .88 Burke, Dr., Mortality in Bengal, and admissions in Hospital amongst European Troops . . . . . . .62 C. Capital, Accumulation of in early years of a Society, important. . 33 „ of Shareholders not to be tied up in doubtful investments . 95 „ Difference between, and the accumulation of premiums . 92 „ Employment of, in Proprietary Assurance Companies . .93 „ Amount of, in Proprietary Companies . . . .99 Ceylon, Description of . . . • . -76 „ Mortality amongst European Troops in . . . .77 „ „ Native and Black Troops in. . .77 „ „ Pioneer Corps. . . . .81 „ „ Gun Lascars . . . . .81 „ „ Armed Lascoreyns . . . .81 Cholera, Mortality from, in Bengal Presidency, European Troops. . 58 „ „ ,, Native Troops . . 59 ,, „ in the Jails, Calcutta . . . .60 ,, „ in Madras Presidency, European Troops . 63 ,, „ „ Native Troops . . 64 „ „ in Ceylon . . . . .78 „ „ in Bombay Presidency, European Troops . 84 ' „ ,, Native Troops . . 86 Companies, Life Assurance, large proportion recently formed . . 9 Diseases amongst the Troops in Madras Presidency, more fatal classes . 68 „ „ inMoulmein . . . .75 „ „ in Ceylon ... .78 „ „ according to ages . . 79 126 E. Page. Edmonds' Theory of Mortality explained. . . . . 2& Equitable Society, Mean Duration of Life in, compared with Northamp- ton Table . . . . . . . .10 „ Experience of, as examined by Mr. Edmonds . 25 M ,, corresponds with Edmonds' Village Table, 3 years older . . . .26 „ Proportion of Members entering at different ages . 32 Experience, Description of Tables of Mortality according to that of Equitable Society. . . . . . . .17 „ ,, ,, Amicable Society 20 ii „ Do., amongst older Members. 22 „ Combined, of 17 Life Assurance Companies . .33 ,, „ Description of . .35 „ ,, Objections to their being founded on Policies, not Lives assured . . . .33 „ „ Compared with Equitable and Amicable Ex- perience . . . . .38 G. Galloway's Tables of Amicable Experience, adjusted by Gompertz's formula . . . . . . . . 27 Guarantee Fund, of Proprietary Companies how employed . .101 „ in Mutual Offices, formed by excess of premiums for life above the risks for the current year . .102 „ and Reserved Fund together, a benefit to Shareholders 105 I.J. India, Return of Military Force employed in . . .46 „ Average age of different ranks of officers in . . .47 India, Mortality in, works on, referred to. . . . .44 ,, increases with the age . . . .47 Mr. Edmonds' Tables of . . . .46 Mr. Woolhouse's Table . . . 48 49 Mr. Griffith's Daviess Tables . . .49 ,, ,, amongst Medical Officers . . 49 ,, ,, Amongst Wives and Widows . . 49 ,, „ His Table compared with Mr. Wool- house's . . . .51 ,, ,, Mean duration of different classes . 52 Christie's Table . . . . .49 ,, Compared with the Experience of 17 Companies . 52 ,, Excess of, produced by climate . . .52 Page. 61 . 53 ,,,] 53 ilU 54 37 39 107 02 67 63 67 . 17 *y 21 . 23 127 India, Mortality in, amongst European and Native Troops „ amongst Civilians .... ,, „ compared with that of Officers . „ amongst Military Officers in Bengal, married and single . .... Irish Lives, Assurances on, not profitable . . a Joint Lives, Rules for approximations to the values of Annuities on M. Madras Presidency, Mortality amongst European Troops in m „ Native Troops. Membership, Average duration of, in Equitable Society . „ ,, compared with that of Amicable Society „ „ amongst the old members of Do. Mortality, Diminution of, in early years of a Society, not to be con- sidered a permanent source of profit. . . .19 ,, Increase of, for many years after establishment of a Society explained . . . . . . .30 ,, Maximum of, not attained for 50 years at least . .31 „ in Equitable and Amicable Societies, in each 10 years from admission . . . . . . .31 „ Increase of, in Ceylon, with length of residence . . 79 „ Diminution of in 1844-5 by Col. Tulloch's Return . . 82 „ amongst European Officers compared with Private Soldiers in Ceylon . . . . . . .79 Moulmein, Description of . . . . . . .73 „ Mortality amongst European Troops in . .73 „ „ amongst Native Troops . . . .74 O. Officers, Proportion of Mortality amongst, compared with private soldiers 48 „ „ in Bengal Presidency . . 58 „ ,, of Sickness „ in Ceylon . . .79 Penang, Mortality amongst European Troops in . . .75 ,, Native Troops . . . .75 Profit, Average of, on shares in Proprietary Companies . .100 Profits of a Company, whence derived . . . . .8 ,, from Selection of Lives, likely to be diminished with the age of the Society . . 9, 11 „ from using a different Table for the valuation, may leave nothing for future division . 1 3 128 Page. R. Reserved Fund, in Mutual Companies, similar to the Share Capital in Proprietary Companies . . . . . .96 » h Dividends on, received by the assured . . .97 Risks, incurred by shareholders, in the early periods of a Proprietary Company . . . . . . , .94 S. Selection of Lives, Effect of, pointed out by Mr. Morgan . .17 „ in favour of an office at starting , . . 104 „ shown by Table of Expectation of Life, according to ,, duration of membership . . .20 Shareholders, required to keep up assurances, guarantee themselves . 105 „ paid off by the assurers in various companies . . 106 Shares, Proportion of, generally paid up . . . .95 ,, Advantages of calling up only a small instalment on . . 96 ,, Risk to the Assurers, of the remainder not being paid up . 96 „ Price of, in public market, sign of real value . . ,98 ,, Table of prices . . . . . . .99 „ Premium on, shows the assurers are paying too much for the guarantee . . .. . . . .98 „ if not allotted, no guarantee to assurers . . . 100 „ Average profit on, in Proprietary Companies . . .100 T. Tenasserim Provinces, general description of . . .72 Tulloch, Colonel, Reports on the Sickness, Mortality, and Invaliding of H.M.'s troops . . . . . . .44 TABLES. Selection of Lives and Comparison of the Experience of Companies. Table I. — Comparison of Mean Duration of Life by the Equitable, Amicable, Northampton, and Carlisle Tables . . 10 II. — Mortality within 10 years, out of 10,000, at the ages in the margin, by ditto. . . . . .11 III.— Value of £10,000 policy, made at age 40, after 10, 20, and 30 years, by Northampton, Equitable, and Carlisle Tables, compared . . . . .12 I. — Mortality per cent., between quinquennial periods of age, out of 100 persons existing at each period, and admitted res- pectively at intervals preceding, increasing by five years (Equitable Experience) , . . .18 129 Page. Table II. — Showing the increase of Mortality according to years of Membership, in 100 persons, living between the ages stated in the margin (Equitable Experience) . .19 III. — Showing the Expectation of Life, in the Equitable Society, according to duration of Membership . . .20 IV. — Showing the annual number of deaths, in decennial periods of age, out of 10,000 persons, living .at each age, and at different dates from admission, according to the Equitable and Amicable Experience, compared with the Northamp- ton Table . . . . . . .24 V. — Showing, according to the Duration of Membership, the mortality in five years, by the Equitable and Amicable Experience, out of 100 persons, living at the ages stated in the margin . . . . . .28 VI. — Showing the number of persons at the ages stated in the margin, relative to 1000 surviving at the age 55, accord- ing to the Equitable and Amicable Experience, com- pared with Mr. Edmonds' Theoretical Tables of Village Mortality . . . . . . .28 I. — Showing a comparison between the mortality, according to the Equitable and Amicable Society, in years from admission 32 II. — Showing the proportion per cent., at different ages, who entered in the Equitable and Amicable Societies . 32 III. — Showing the mortality, in decennial periods of age, accord- ing to the Experience of 17 Life Assurance Companies 37 IV. — Showing the Mean Duration of Life, according to the Experience of 17 Life Assurance Companies . . 38 V.— Showing the annual number of deaths, out of 10,000, living at each age, in decennial periods of age, according to the Experience of 17 Life Assurance Companies . 39 Mortality in India. I. — Showing the average annual mortality per cent., amongst different ranks of officers, in the three Presidencies, as given by Mr. Edmonds, 1809 to 1828, and the same for Bengal, from Prinsep's observations . . .47 II. — Showing the proportion of deaths out of 100 persons living at each age, according to different observations (Davies, Woolhouse, Christie, Prinsep) . . 50 III. — Showing the excess of mortality in India out of 100 persons (Males), living at each age, above that of assured Male Lives, according to the Experience of the Life Assurance Companies . . . .52 S 130 Page. Table IV. — Showing the comparison of the Mean Duration of Life, amongst Males and Females in India . . .52 V. — Showing the average annual mortality per cent, of each class, amongst Civilians in India . . .54 I. — Showing the mortality per cent., amongst European and Native Troops, in the Bengal Presidency . . 61 II. — Showing the mortality per cent, amongst the Troops in the Madras Presidency (Statistical Society's Eeturns) . 66 III. — Showing the Admissions in Hospital, and deaths per cent. of strength, amongst the Troops, in the Madras Presidency, and in the United Kingdom, by the more fatal classes of diseases . . . „ .68 IV. — Showing the mortality per cent, amongst the Troops in the Madras Presidency (Returns from the East India Com- pany, and the Statistical Society, compared) . . 70 I. — Showing the mortality per cent, of strength, amongst European and Native Troops, in the Tenasserim Provinces, Penang, &c. ; . . .75 II.— Showing the mortality per cent, of strength, by Pulmonary Diseases, in different parts of the world . .77 III. — Showing the mortality per cent, of strength, in Ceylon, by different diseases, according to ages . . .79 IV. — Comparison of Sickness, and mortality per cent, of strength, amongst officers and private soldiers in Ceylon . 80 V.— Showing the mortality per cent, of strength amongst European and Black Troops in Ceylon . . 82 I. — Showing the mortality per cent, of strength amongst European and Native Troops in the Bombay Presidency 86 II, — Showing the proportion per cent, of Country and Caste of the Native soldiers in the Bombay Army . . 88 III. — Showing the mortality in the Native Army, in the Bombay Presidency, in 100 existing at each age . . .89 IV.— Showing the proportion of sickness, and mortality per cent, of strength amongst European and Native Troops in India (Edmonds) . . . . .90 GENERAL TABLES. I. — Showing the prices of Shares in Proprietary Life Assurance Companies, on the 4th April, 1848 (from Wetenhall's List) 99 II.— Showing the difference between the Annual Premium for Continuance and for One Year only, according to the Northampton rates . . . . .102 131 Page Table III.— Showing the deviations from the average mortality in England for seven years, and in the Equitable Society for four years, and from the policies cancelled in the Equitable Society for seven years . . .103 I.— Values of Annuities on Single Lives, Northampton and Carlisle Tables, at 6 per cent., deduced by the rule for the approximation, from those at 3, 4, 5 per cent. . 109 II.— 1)6. at 8 per cent., from 5, 6, 7, per cent. . . . 109 III. — Do. on Joint Lives (Northampton, Carlisle, Experience of 17 Offices, and Edmonds' Mean Mortality), at 6 per cent, deduced from those at 3, 4, 5, per cent. . . 109 W. S. D. Pateman, Printer, Wine Office Court, Fleet Street. COLONIAL LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANY, (-REGISTERED AND EMPOWERED UNDER ACT OF PARLIAMENT, 7 AND 8 VICT., CAP. 110.) CAPITAL, ^6-500,000. Established for (he purpose of effecting Assurances on the Lives of Persons Resident in or about to proceed to the Colonies of Great Britain, India, or other places abroad. Governor— THE RIGHT HON. THE EARL OF ELGIN ^AND KINCARDINE. Edinburgh, 1, GEORGE STREET.— London, 4a, LOTHBURY.— Glasgow, 35, ST. VINCENT PLACE. EDINBURGH BOARD OF DIRECTORS. "WILLIAM STUART WALKER, Esq., Chairman. ALEXANDER J. RUSSEL, Esq., C.S. GEORGE MERCER, Esq. of Gorthy. JAMES DUNCAN, Esq. Merceant, Leith. PETER RAMSEY, Esq. Banker. GEORGE MOIR, Esq. Advocate. JAMES HAY, Esq. Merchant, Leith. ARCHIBALD HORNE, Esq. Accountant. J. MACALPINE LENNY, Esq. of Dalswinton. CHARLES PEARSON, Esq. Accountant. JAMES ROBERTSON, Esq. W.S. GEORGE ROSS, Jun. Esq., Advocate. Medical Adviser— HENRY MARSHALL, Esq., Deputy Inspector-General of Army Hospitals . Actuary— WILLIAM THOMAS THOMSON, Esq. Auditor— CHARLES PEARSON, Esq. Secretary— HENRY JONES WILLIAMS, Esq. LONDON BOARD. THE RIGHT HON. THE EARL OF MINTO, Chairman. D. LAING BURN, Esq. 12, Kensington Palace Gardens. ALEX. MACGREGOR, Esq. 31, Chester Street, Grosvenor Place. PETER EWART, Esq., 82, King William Street. ALEX. GILLESPIE, Esq. of Gillespie, Moffat, and Co., 5, Gould Square. T. HOLDSWORTH BROOKING, Esq. of Robinson and Brookings, 3, Alderman's Walk. JOHN SCOTT, Esq. 4, Hyde Park Street, Hyde Park. Medical Adviser— J)T. WOODFALL. Secretary— JOHN G. AULD, Esq. Bankers— Messrs. COUTTS and Co. THE COLONIAL LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANY has been established for the purpose of extending to the Colonies of Great Britain, and to India, the full benefit of Life Assurance • and for the purpose of giving increased facilities to persons visiting or residing in foreign countries! Before the establishment of the " Colonial," Life Assurance in the Colonies was almost un- known ; and where its protection was afforded, the rates demanded were so exorbitant as to be almost a complete bar to such transactions For the purpose of giving increased facilities also in the Company's transactions, the Directors have appointed local Boards of Management and Branch Offices, where Assurances may be effected and Premiums paid, in the different places to which they have extended their business. PROTECTIVE ASSURANCES— WHOLE.WORLD-LICENCE. Persons effecting Life Assurance Policies as a security for money advanced, generally run the risk of the party going beyond the limits of his policy, and incurring a forfeiture. The Colonial Company are ready to grant Policies at a slightly increased rate of Premium (varing from 5s. to 10s. per cent J covering the risk of a party proceeding to any part of the world at an after period, provided always that the Company are satisfied that the party has no present prospect or intention of going to any unhealthy Climate. The Company will also grant " Whole World Licences " to persons having the intention of proceeding abroad, at rates of Premium corresponding to the circumstances of each case. Every other information may be obtained at the Offices of the Company, 4a, Lothbury, London ; 1, George Street, Edinburgh ;"35, St. Vincent Place, Glasgow ; or at any of the Agencies in the Colonies. WILLIAM THOMAS THOMSON, Actuary JOHN G. AULD, Secretary to the London Board, CHURCH OF ENGLAND LIFE AND FIRE ASSURANCE I N S T I TU T ION",- LOTHBURY, LONDON. Empowered by Special Act of Parliament, 4 and 5 Vic., Cap. CXIl. SUBSCRIBED CAPITAL, ONE MILLION. (Av LIST OF THE PEOPEIETOE8 ENBOLLED IN THE HIGH COURT OF CHANCEBI.J DIRECTORS. MAJOR JAMES OLIPHANT, H.E.I.C, Chairman. MAJOR JAMES ADAIR. THE VERY REV. THE DEAN OF EMLY, REV. W. HARNESS, M.A. J. HOPKINSON, Esq. BENJAMIN JACKSON, Esq> REV. H. J. KNAPP, D.D. JAMES LAMB, Esq. CAPTAIN MACDOUGALL. WILLIAM AMBROSE SHAW, Esq. GEORGE SLOANE, Esq. EDWARD HEATHCOTE SMITH, Eso> REV. H. T. TUCKER, M-.Ax JOHN WALKER, Esq. SIR WILLIAM WHITE, Bankers— '. REV. RICHARD WOOD, B.D, Auditors— Ri S. CAHILL, Esq.; and M. R. SCOTT, Esq. HERRIES* FARQUHAR, and Co.-; and COMMERCIAL BANK OF LONDON. Solicitors— Messrs. E. and C. HARRISON, Secretary— WILLIAM EMMENS, Esq, SCOTTISH BRANCH. Edinbubgh- OFFICE, 55, GREAT KING STREET. Agent and Secretary— WILLIAM F. SKENE, W.S. Glasgow— OFFICE, 24, GORDON STREET. Agent and Secretary— ROBERT BAIRD, Jun. INDIAN BRANCH. CALCUTTA COMMITTEE. JAMES STEUART, Esq. I J. SPENCER JUDGE, Esq. ANDREW HAY, Esq. Wm. McADAM STEWART, Esq. Dr. DUNCAN STEWART, Agents and Secretaries— Messrs. COLVIN, AINRLIE. COWIE, and Co. MADEAS COMMITTEE. EDWARD F. ELLIOT, Esq. I ROBERT FRANCK, Esq. WALTER ELLIOT, Esq, Rev. G. W. MAHON. RAMSEY SLADEN, Esq. Agents and Secretaries— Messrs. PARRY and COMPANY. SPECIMEN OF RATES. HOME. INDIAN. Age. Seven Years. Life. Age. Civil. Military. Seven Years.! Life. 1 Seven Years, Life. 25 30 35 40 £ s. d. 1 2 9 1 3 7 1 5 2 1 8 2 £ s. d, 1 17 6 2 2 7 2 9 1 2 17 8 25 30 35 40 Rs. 28 31 34 38 Rs. 38 46 47 53 Rs. 37 39 43 97 Rs. 45 49 53 59 Prospectusses, the necessary Forms, and every requisite Information for effecting Assur- ances, may be obtained on application to tbe Secretary at the Head Office in London, or to the Agents and Secretaries in Scotland and India as above. WM. EMMENS, Secretary. BRITISH MUTUAL 'LIFE ASSURANCE SOCIETY, V7, NEW BRIDGE STREET, BLACKFRIARS. DIRECTORS. HENRY CTJRREY, Esq., 4, Lancaster Place, 22, Brook Street, and St. Thomas's Hospital SRALPH ET WALL, Esq., Andover, and Nurs- ling, near Southampton. THOMAS EVANS, Esq., M.D., Stockwcll Park House, Surrey. -JOHN S. FELTOE, Esq., Belvidere Walk, Larrtbeth. «EORGE GODWIN, Esq., F.R.S., F.S.A., Alexander Square, Brompton. HON. WILLIAM GORE, wnton Crescent, Belgrave Square. THOMAS HAMBER, Esq., Barnsbury Park, and Court of Bankruptcy. JOHN LODGE, Esq., Ivy House, Godstone, LIEUT -COL. MONTRESOR, Ospringe House, Kent. GEORGE ALFRED WALKER, Esq., St. St. James's Place, St. James's. Bankers.— Messrs. MASTERMAN and Co., Nicholas Lane, Lombard Street. Physician.— NICHOLAS PARKER, Esq., M.D., Finsbury Square. Surgeon.— ROBERT GRUEBEE SHUTE, Esq.,F.R.C.S., Mecklenburgh Square. Solicitors.— Messrs. MILLAND and MACERELL, Cordwainer's Hall, City. Resident Secretary.— CHARLES JAMES THICKE, Esq. The plan of this Office will be found to embrace all the solid advantage of Life Assurance at the least possible expense, while the equitable adjustment of the premiums to the several ages, and the peculialy mode of distributing the surplus, secure to the Members— A BONUS ANNUALLY, <in shape of low. premiums,) equal to those of other offices granted every three, five, or seven years, and the PROSPECT OF A LA.RGER BONUS than can possibly be obtained at those offices in the equitable and beneficial distribution of the profits. Assurances may be effected for any sum from £20 to £5,000 >. upon any known system of Orffe Assurance. No entrance or Admission-money required. A Life may be assured at any age for any certain time, or for the whole continuance of life, •upon payment of either a gross sum, or by annual, half-yearly, or quarterly payments, to be continued during the whole term of life, or during a limited number of years. Annuities, immediate or deferred, or endowments to children, or sums to be received at any *pecifled age, may be contracted for on equitable terms. The prices may be obtained on parti- culars being stated. The sum Assured may be made payable to the individual himself, onfhis attaining 60, or any specified age; if he should die before that time, his representatives will reap the benefit of bis Assurance in the usual way. Where a Policy for the whole term of life shall be in force seven years, the fair value of the policy will be paid on its being surrendered, or a new policy given in lieu of it, correspond- ing to the premium previously paid, no further premiums being required in either case ; by this provision, the objection to Life Assurance, from the fear that at some future time the party may <*e unable to continue the payment, is effectually removed. All payments are-made payable on one of the quarter days. •Claims payable in three months after satisfactory proof of death shall have been given. A Board of Directors and Medical officers are in attendance on Tuesdays, at Two o'clock, and every facility is afforded for effecting Assurances on any other day. A liberal commission allowed to Solicitors, and others, introducing business to the Society. Forms of Proposals, and every information, may be obtained on application to any of toe -Agents, or-at the Offlee, No. 17, New Bridge Street, Blackfriars, or by letter to the Secretary. GREAT BRITAIN MUTUAL LIFE ASSURANCE SOCIETY. IN DIA AND LONDON LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANY, 14, WATERLOO PLACE, AND 52, KING WILLIAM STREET, CITY. THE CHI9HOLM, Chairman. RICHARD HARTLEY KENNEDY, Esq. Deputy Chairman. DIVISION OF PROFITS. This Society is established on the tried and approved principle of Mutual Assurance. A Division of Profits was declared at a General Meeting of Members held on the 26th May last, agreeabiy to the Deed of Settlement, when a Bonus of 30 per cent, was given in reduction of future premiums on Participating Policies which had been in force five years, and hereafter this Society will make an Annual Division of Profits. Credit is allowed for half the Annual Premium for the first five years. The following Table exemplifies the effect of the present reduction :— Age when Amount Annual Premium Reduction of Annual Premium Assured. Assured. hitherto paid. 30 per cent. now payable. £ £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. 20 1,000 20 17 6 6 5 3 14 12 3 30 1,000 25 13 4 7 14 17 19 4 40 1,000 33 18 4 10 3 6 23 14 10 50 1,000 48 )6 8 14 13 34 3 8 INDIA AND LONDON LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANY. capital, £250,000, in 5000 shares, £50 each. This Company assures the lives of healthy persons in any part of the world, at as low rates of premiums as can be taken consistently with perfect security, whilst for the accommodation of the assured, a Half Premium Table (No, 2) has been constructed, affording greater advantages to parties assuring for short periods, with tbe option of continuing for the remainder of life. Also Invalid Lives, whether afflicted with mental or bodily infirmities. And Lives of Naval and Military Officers and Civilians in India, in any of the Colonies, or other parts of the world . Annuities granted, and Endowments for Widows and Children, on a plan peculiar to this EXTRACT FROM THE TABLES FOR AN ASSURANCE OF 1000 RUPEES, OR rf'lOO Age. 18 25 35 45 Military or Civilians. Naval Officers. Rupees 29 .- Rupees 38 „ 33 42 „ 42 ,. 50 ,. 55 62 London. 14, Waterloo Place. R. IRVINE, Manager. WESTERN LIFE ASSURANCE AND ANNUITY SOCIETY, 3, PARLIAMENT STREET, LONDON. DIRECTORS, HENRY E. BICKNELL, Esq., 28, Upper Bedford Row. WILLIAM CABILL, Esq., Newlngton Place, Surrey! THOS. SOMERS COCKS, Jun., Esq,, M.P. Charing Cross. GEORGE HENRY DREW, Esq., Bermondsey Street. WILLIAM EVANS, Esq., Chesham Street, Belgrave Square. WILLIAM FREEMAN, Esq., MUlbank St. FRANCIS FULLER, Esq., 29, Abingdon Street, and Addington. JOSEPH HENRY GOODHARN, Esq., Upper Tooting. THOMAS GRISSELL, Esq., New Palace Yard* Westminster. JAMES HUNT, Esq., 3L, Parliameut Street. J. ARSCOTT LETHBRIDGE, Esq., Green- wich Hospital. EDMUND LUCAS, Esq., MUlbank Street. JAMES LYS SEAGER, Esq., MUlbank. JOHN WHITE, Esq., MUlbank Street, and JOS. CARTER WOOD, Esq., Artillery Place, Westminster. TRUSTEES. W. WHATELEY, Esq., Q.C., Great George Street, Westminster.— L. C. HUMPHREY, Esq. v <Q.C, Great Queen Street, Westminster.— GEORGE DREW, Esq., Bermondsey and Streatham, Consulting Countel.— WILLIAM P. WOOD, Esq., M.P., 3, Stone BuUdings, Lincoln's Inn. Conveyancing Counsel.— SAMUEL JAY, Esq., 10, Old Square, Lincoln's Dm. Physician.— WILLIAM R. BASHAM, M.D., 17, Chester Street, Grosvenor Place. Surgeons.— ALFRED LEGGATT, Esq., Ebury Street, Eton Square— GEORGE D. POLLOCK Esq., 39, Bruton Street, Berkley Square. Bankers.— Messrs. COCKS, BIDDULPH, and Co., Charing Cross. Solicitor.— J. C. LETHBRIDGE, Esq., 25, Abingdon Street, Westminster. Actuary and Secretary.— ARTHUR SCRATCHLEY, Esq., M.A., F.R.A.S VALUABLE NEW PRINCIPLE.— Payment of Premiums may be occasionally omitted without forfeiting the Policy, on a new and valuable plan, adopted by this Society only, as fuUy detailed in the Prospectus. PROPOSALS are entertained by this Society for every variety of ASSURANCE, or ANNUITY, contingent in one, two, or three lives. Policies of Assurance are granted from £50 up to .£5000. The payments of Premiums may be made Annually, Half -Yearly, Quarterly, or Monthly, or may be compounded for by one single payment, commonly caUed the single premium, or they may be made on descending or ascending scales. MILITARY and NAVAL MEN (not in Actual War Service) are assured at the ordinary rates. ENDOWMENTS for CHILDREN, on their attaining the age of 14, or 21, and PROVISIONS for OLD AGE, (by which a party secures a sum, payable to himself, on attaining the age of 60, 65, or to his family, in oase of previous death,) are granted by this Society, on apian, presenting several ADVANTAGES not offered by other Societies. PARTIES desirous of providing for the RENEWAL FINE in their LEASES, can do so with faciUty in this Society. TEMPORARY POLICIES of Assurances are granted to Borrowers in BUILDING SOCIETIES, upon a new plan, offering peculiar advantages to the FamUies of the Borrowers, and Security against the heavy loss their deaths would occasion. Prospectuses, and further information, can be obtained, free of expense, from the Actuary > 3, ParUament Street, London, or from any of the Society's Agents in the country. * Now ready, Price 6s., 8vo., {Copywright.) A PRACTICAL TREATISE ON BENEFIT BUILDING SOCIETIES; with Rules and Tables, intended for the use of Officers and Members. By A, Soratchley, M.A., Actuary to the Western Life Assurance Society, 3, ParUament Street, Westminster. London: JOHN W. PARKER, West Strand. MEMBERS OF BUILDING SOCIETIES, in London or the Country, who are desirous ■of ascertaining whether the Associations they belong to are conducted upon sound and equitable principles, or at present are in a safe position, can obtain (gratis) the necessary inves tigation papers, and the correct form of the LiabiUty and Assest Account, which should be made out Annually by their Society, on applying personally, or by letter, with two postage stamps, to the Actuary, No. 3, Parliament Street, London. COLLEGIATE SCHOOL, BRIXTON LODGE-BRIXTON, SURREY. The premises are in the highly respectable neighbourhood of Brixton, Surrey, four miles south of the Royal Exchange, on the Brixton Road; and the grounds, \the class-rooms, dining-hall, and bed-rooms, are spacious, and well adapted to the requirements of a large establishment ) Principal— J. HOOPER HARTNOLL, (OF THE UPPER NAUTICAL SCHOOL, ROYAL HOSPITAL, GREENWICH.) Classics— William S Horry, L.L.D., St. John's, Oxon. Mathematics (and Greek Lecturer) — Thomas Atkinson, M.A., Scholar of Corp. Ch. Coll., Cambridge. English Literature, Language, and Composition— Mr. Haktnoll. French Language— -Mon. Cordelier Victor, of the College de la Fleche. German Language— Dr. Horry. Navigation and Nautical Astronomy— Mr. Hartnoll. Fortification and Military Drawing— -Mr. Atkinson. Drawing Master— Mr. Adkins. Dancing Master— Mr. Seaton. Drill Master— Sergeant Wilkinson. The general course of instruction adopted in the school is varied according to the Pupil's probable destination in life.— When it is intimated that a youth is intended for employment in the Commercial world, less extensive application to the classics affords additional time for atten- tion to those particular branches of instruction which have a direct bearing upon Commercial operations.- Pupils intended for the Legal or Medical Profession, are carefully advanced in the Latin and Greek Languages.— Those who are to proceed at a suitable age to one of the Univer- sities, are introduced to the higher classical authors. Mathematics, and the application of Mathematical Laws to Natural Philosophy,~occupy a prominent place in the course and it may be desirable to intimate to gentlemen connected with Life Assurance Societies, who are anxious to educate their sons, with a view to their being qualified for undertaking the duties of Actuary, that every facility, for the purpose, is afforded in this establishment. Pupils destined for the Royal Navy, or Mercantile Marine, derive the benefit of the Prin- cipal's long experience in the Upper Nautical School, at Greenwich : and as he is intimately acquainted with the qualifications required for the admission of Students into the Military Academies, it may be observed that Young Gentlemen preparing to enter the Service, under the new regulations, or to proceed direct to India, enjoy peculiar educational advantages in Brixton Lodge. The French and German Languages are attended to, under resident Masters, with a diligence apportioned to their importance as branches of modern education ; whilst earnest attention is given to secure for the pupils a graceful style of penmanship, the advantage of good reading, a thorough acquaintance with their own language, facility in composition, and other adjuncts in education too frequently disregarded in public schools. The extensive experience of the Principal of this Establishment, and the Professional reputation of his Colleagues, render it unnecessary to enter into details respecting the mode of instruction pursued in it. Systems of education are, not unfrequently, the resources of in- dolence, or the expedients of quackery. The organization, natural strength, and flexibility of the mind, are as varied as the corresponding qualities of the body ; and no man will ever be- come an efficient instructor until he has acquired that quickness of perception of the natural powers and dispositions of young persons which enables a teacher to engage the confidence and affection of his Pupils. As an impression exists in some quarters that the Business of this School is limited to Students of advanced age, Mr.HARTNOLL deems it proper to observe that the greatest advan- tage a teacher can enjoy is to have the laying of the foundationon which the future superstruc- ture is to be raised. TERMS. Pupils under 11 years of age, 45 Guineas per annum— above 14 years of age, 50 Guineas per an. Weekly Boarders, 30 Guineas ;— Day Boarders, 20 Guineas; — Day Pupils, 12 Guineas per an. Laundress, 15s. per quarter. Seat in church, 5s. per quarter. It is requested that all articles of dress be properly marked ; and each young gentle is to be provided with a silver table-spoon, six towels, comb, brushes, and linen clothes bag. VC1K6155