ft 1 
 
 THE LIBRARY 
 OF 
 
 THE UNIVERSITY 
 
 OF CALIFORNIA 
 
 LOS ANGELES
 
 HOME POLITICS, 
 
 OR THE 
 
 GROWTH OF TRADE 
 
 CONSIDERED IN ITS RELATION TO 
 
 LABOUB, PAUPERISM & EMIGRATION. 
 
 BY 
 
 DANIEL OKANT. 
 
 i 
 
 , L- 
 
 ; 
 
 
 LONDON: 
 LONGMANS, GREEN, READER AND DYER, 
 
 TATERNOSTER ROW. 
 
 1870.
 
 
 V 
 
 x> 
 
 21 OCT 1920 
 
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 (T'CA 
 
 ENTERED AT STATIONERS HALL. 
 
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 PREFACE. 
 
 This book has been written with the desire to 
 keep it entirely removed from party politics. The 
 great problem — How are the people to find work 
 and food— is a distinctly social one, and is so 
 important for all classes of society that any effort 
 which can be made to solve it is worth the labour. I 
 had no pre-conceived theory to uphold, and through- 
 out I have stated the facts simply as I found them ; 
 the deductions I have ventured to draw seemed to 
 flow naturally, but how far the conclusions are 
 accurate I must leave others to judge. 
 
 Daniel Grant. 
 
 March, 1870. 
 
 12, Cleveland Gardens, 
 Hyde Park. 
 
 ;>i;8^9i
 
 CONTENTS, 
 
 The Condition of the People ... 1 
 
 Free Trade and Reciprocity - - - 10 
 
 The Growth of Trade 19 
 
 Our Future Trade ..... 62 
 
 Population and Food 78 
 
 Labour 93 
 
 Pauperism 106 
 
 Emigration ------- 126 
 
 India 146 
 
 Resume - ..... 168
 
 HOME POLITICS 
 
 OR THE 
 
 GROWTH OF TBADE 
 
 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 
 
 Among the many great questions that are now pressing for 
 solution, there is one that imperatively demands an answer : 
 How are the people of our country to be fed? How are 
 the people to obtain both work and food ? Under all phases 
 and through all kinds of circumstances this question is ever 
 presenting itself— it appears in those thrilling episodes of 
 human misery, when the tortured and the broken, the half- 
 starved and the reckless, hopeless of the future, flinging on 
 one side all questions : — seek refuge in death : it appears in 
 that sense of sullen but half muttered defiance, which is more 
 or less distinctly traceable amongst a large mass of our 
 population ; it appears in the outbreak of the Famine Fever, 
 the continuous increase of our pauper returns and an ever 
 growing taxation. The reason why this question should take 
 precedence of all others, is to be found in the broad fact that 
 it goes to the root of the happiness or the misery, the well 
 being or the destitution of the great mass of the nation. 
 
 B
 
 2 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 
 
 However much we may disguise or slur over the fact, we 
 have to stand face to face with difficulties, probably as 
 profound as those which swept over this land, previously 
 to the repeal of the Corn Laws. It is well whilst there is 
 yet time, that we should grasp the problem in its entirety 
 and do our best to find the solution. The question travels 
 over a very large surface of ground. It asks what has been 
 the cause of the past growth of our trade ; and why has it 
 now ceased to expand ? It asks what is our probable future 
 with regard to the commerce of the world ? and which way 
 does our path lie through the dangers that menace us ? 
 
 It forces these questions on us, not as abstract problems 
 on which themes may be written and theories discussed, but 
 as the great practical necessities of life which are as essential 
 to our existence as the air we breathe. It has been asked 
 before, and it may be asked again : is it possible that there 
 are in this very London of ours the elements of revolution ? 
 "Who shall answer ? But, whether it be so or not, there is no 
 question that hunger makes strange havoc with pet theories, 
 and men, who are placable and kind, when they are passingly 
 comfortable, are dangerous and deadly, when they crave in 
 vain both work and food. It cannot be the wish of the great 
 landed interests of this country, that the large questions 
 connected with territorial property and their right of holding, 
 should be bandied about from mouth to mouth, when men 
 are maddened by the sense of want. It cannot be either 
 their wish or interest that the fierce sense of wrong, implied 
 in the fact of class legislation, should be driven home to 
 fester amid sorrow and despair. The names that many of 
 them bear, who by labours at the bar, or services in the 
 battle field, are traditional elements of intellect and courage; 
 and there is no higher testimony to the aristocracy of our land 
 than to say, that, representing as they do the relics of the 
 middle ages in laws that are at once hard, grasping and
 
 CONDITION OE THE PEOPLE. 8 
 
 unjust, they have contrived by their broad common sense, 
 large courtesy and far reaching fairness, to stand amongst 
 us to-day as a class greatly honored ; but if the sense of 
 sorrow and misery that now overshadows our land should 
 deepen, as most probably it will ; if the cry for aid ; — aid 
 by thought ; aid by care ; aid by law ; should arise and be 
 not responded to, the monitions and warnings that are every- 
 where around us will have spoken in vain, and history will 
 chronicle the results. 
 
 Let us for a moment think what are the conditions of 
 our poor to-day. Apart from the question of our agricul- 
 tural population, whose almost hopeless lot is best told by 
 the simple fact, that in many places the luxury of meat is 
 comparatively unknown; apart from the questions of special 
 emergency, such as the cotton famine, or the East End 
 Emigration Society, which has been brought into existence 
 for the purpose of relieving the great mass of destitution and 
 poverty in that neighbourhood; apart from all such special 
 and exceptional cases, we have the general sense of depression 
 and want everywhere spread around us. It is not necessary 
 to dwell on the scenes of human misery, where wholesale 
 suicides or cruel murders, mark the profound despair or 
 those who lay trembling on the confines of want. It is 
 equally unnecessary to recall those verdicts that appear 
 time after time at coroner's inquests under the simple but 
 expressive phraseology — " Death from Starvation." It is 
 not necessary to recall these things, because the newspaper 
 press of the country drives these truths home without stint 
 and without compromise ; but it may be important to 
 remember that the individual cases, which thus come to the 
 surface, are known only by accident, and that the great mass 
 of misery that suffers and dies, — dies and tells no tale. 
 Occasionally and by accident the curtain is drawn on one 
 side, and we see into the midst of the life of poverty that 
 
 b 2
 
 4 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 
 
 surrounds us ; and we then know by the glance thus afforded 
 us what the general life must be: wasted by poverty, deci- 
 mated by fever, shattered by want ; and it thus rises before 
 us, in the full force of its appeal to that sense of human 
 sympathy which is common to us all. 
 
 But the general acceptance of the positions here stated 
 will be aided by a few facts. Let us see what the barometer 
 of pauperism has to tell us. Our pauper population in 
 
 1866 was - 920,344 
 
 1867 „ - 958,824 
 
 1868 „ - 1,034,823 
 
 and the number is still increasing ; yet these numbers shew 
 that our pauper population has increased by 114,479 persons 
 in two years or at the rate of more than 1,000 per week. 
 Even this large increase does not indicate the exact extent 
 of poverty, — it points to the still wider field of misery that 
 exists among the classes from which pauperism is fed. Let 
 any one think what is the state of destitution through which 
 a man passes, before he is willing to accept relief and allow 
 himself to be branded as a pauper. Those who know the 
 working classes best, know the profound abhorence they 
 entertain of the Workhouse. Any privation, any sorrow, 
 any destitution rather than that ; and the natural inference 
 is, that the pressure of want is not only severe but has been 
 long enough sustained, to have swept away all articles of 
 clothing, as well as all household goods, before the sufferers 
 bend to their fate. Let us take some few instances of what 
 the present condition shows. A3 one illustration of the 
 state of destitution take the following : 
 
 " Monday, March 8, 1869. — At the last meeting of 
 " the Chester Guardians, Mr. Brittain, one of the relieving 
 " officers, stated it as his belief that there never was 
 " so much destitution in the city, even in an inclement 
 season, as there was at the present time. He knew 
 
 ««
 
 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 5 
 
 " poor people who were living on Indian meal and a ' little 
 "buttermilk."' 
 
 The same general illustrations is afforded by this 
 extract taken from the Pall Mall Gazette of September 
 30, 1869:— 
 
 " Dr. Mitchell, reporting to the commissioners in Lunacy 
 for Scotland, states that on the occasion of his visit to 
 Shetland, he saw much stronger and deeper signs of 
 poverty than he had ever seen before. In the parish of 
 Unst the year's poor rate is no less than 7s. Id. per pound 
 of the gross rental. When the taxes, charges and burdens 
 on land are added to this, he was assured that less than 
 one-third of the rental will be left the proprietor. All over 
 Shetland the poor rate has been rapidly and steadily 
 increasing during the last twenty years— the increase in 
 some parishes being 700 or 800 per cent. In the parish of 
 Lerwick, it is said to have risen since 1845 from £40 to 
 <£900. After his visit to the county he wrote to the 
 chairman of one of the parochial boards, urging the 
 extension of relief to a melancholic who clearly needed 
 care and treatment in an asylum. His request received 
 prompt attention, but the chairman, a gentleman most 
 charitably inclined, said, 'in our dealings with the poor we 
 have always to consider our own impending ruin.'" 
 The same journal in referring to the general state of 
 pauperism has the following. — 
 
 " July 14, 1869. — Our great industrial centres are 
 " apparently applying with a free hand some dangerous 
 " palliative of distress, the money doles of the relieving 
 " officer, unwarned by the bitter experience of the agricultural 
 "counties of the southern half of England. Wait awhile, 
 '• and Lancashire, at her present rate of pauper development 
 " may range with Wilts, Dorset, or Devon." 
 
 The following is extracted from the Lancet of October 9,
 
 
 6 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE, 
 
 1869 : and adds one more illustration of the general destitu- 
 tion incident to the Metropolis : — 
 
 "Famine Fever. — The interesting communication of 
 " Dr. Murchison, which we print in another column, draws 
 " attention to the renewed prevalence in London of a 
 " disease which, fortunately, has of late years heen rarely 
 " seen in this country. Relapsing fever may be broadly 
 " said to be the product of destitution pure and simple ; 
 " but once established, it becomes communicable by con- 
 tagion. As regards the spread of the disease in London, 
 the statistics of the Fever Hospital undoubtedly point, as 
 " Dr. Murchison observes, to the fact that the disease is 
 " becoming distinctly epidemic, — the numbers of admission 
 " for the months of May, June, July, August, and September 
 " being 4, 3, 7, 15, and 34, respectively; and 7 admissions 
 " having taken place on October 1st. The poorer classes of 
 " London are, we fear, threatened with a terrible scourge 
 " during the approaching winter ; for not merely is there 
 " great danger of relapsing fever taking formidable dimen- 
 " sions, but, as Dr. Murchison reminds us, such an event 
 " is nearly always accompanied by an increased diffusion 
 " of typhus." 
 
 In addition to all these, the reports from every part of 
 England indicate a great and growing pressure, not only on 
 the absolutely poor, but on the trading classes immediately 
 above them. In one parish of London, that of Lambeth, it 
 has been found necessary at one sitting to issue 400 warrants 
 of distress, in order to obtain payment of the poor rates. 
 At another place, that of Willesden, a magistrate stated that 
 he had done nothing all one day but sign summonses and 
 warrants for the same purpose. Facts of this kind are not 
 open to statistical accurracy, but they are almost beyond the 
 necessity of statistics, for they are matters of universal accep- 
 tance, and can be more or less distinctly verified by us all.'
 
 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 7 
 
 The general recognition of our present condition of pau- 
 perism and labour is best illustrated by the great number of 
 pamphlets that issue from the press and by the acknowledged 
 utterances of our leading men; although the reasons and 
 explanations given by them are strangely at variance. One 
 gentleman finds the cause of our present distress to be 
 drunkenness; another finds it in the want of education; 
 a third in the present condition of the land ; a fourth in 
 Trade Union combinations; Mr. Bright thinks it is con- 
 nected with the want of cheap cotton, whilst Lord Overstone 
 thinks it is an ordinary check and that it will right itself. 
 In the face of such divergencies, with a stagnant or 
 retrograde trade, and with a large mass of our population 
 unemployed, it seems time that we should collect our facts 
 and see what they teach us. 
 
 The possible results of a condition, akin to our present, 
 is thus referred to in Mr. John Stuart Mill's Political 
 Economy, when speaking on the question of Wages, there 
 is the following: — 
 
 " If the growth of the towns and of the capital 
 " there employed, by which the factory operatives are 
 "maintained at their present average rate of wages 
 "notwithstanding their rapid increase, did not also absorb 
 " a great part of the annual addition to the rural popu- 
 " lation, there seems no reason in the present habits of the 
 " people why they should not fall into as miserable a 
 "condition as the Irish previous to 1846; and if the 
 " market of our manufactures should, I do not say fall 
 "off, but even cease to expand at the rapid rate of the 
 " last fifty years, there is no certainty that this fate may 
 " not be reserved for us." 
 
 In the first place, it is undeniable that we have a pauper 
 population considerably in excess of one million of people ; 
 in the second place, it is unquestioned and unquestionable,
 
 8 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE, 
 
 that our export trade has not grown for more than three 
 years : — 
 
 Our export3 in 1866 were £188,917,536 
 
 „ 1867 „ 181,183,971 
 
 1868 „ 179,463,644 
 
 But, to understand the force of these figures, it must be 
 clearly remembered, that England cannot feed her own peo- 
 ple ; — that we have been under the necessity of importing 
 foreign corn since 1793, and that the probability is, that one- 
 half of the entire population of our country is fed by corn, 
 grown on foreign soil. This corn that thus feeds our people, 
 has to be paid for by some means ; and it is paid for by the 
 means of our export trade. So long as our export trade 
 continues to grow at a sufficiently rapid rate, all goes well; 
 but, so soon as that trade ceases to grow, the pressure of an 
 ever increasing population trenches on the means of life, and 
 pauperism and destitution increase. 
 
 The significance of the position will be best appreciated 
 by the recognition, that our clear nett gain, as a mere matter 
 of population, is about 220,000 per annum, or at the rate of 
 more than 4,000 per week, the statistics being: — 
 
 1865 .... 20,990,946 
 
 1866 .... 21,210,020 
 
 1867 ... - 21,429,509 
 
 1868 .... 21,649,377 
 showing a clear increase of 658,431 since 1865. The question, 
 therefore, before us, is not only how are we to feed our existing 
 population, but how are we to feed one that is continuously 
 increasing and increasing at the rate here indicated. Our 
 trade during twenty years, 1847 — 1866 had answered all 
 questions, because it had grown with a rapidity sufficiently 
 great to find work for the ever increasing population ; but, 
 as its growth for the time seems definitely checked we stand 
 face to face with the problem : how are the people to find at 
 once both work and food ?
 
 CONDITION OF THE PEOPLE. 9 
 
 The results that will follow from our present position 
 are very evident, for, as population continues to grow, 
 whether there is work or not, it will be obvious that we 
 may look forward to a continual increase of pauperism and 
 destitution until some counteracting' agency comes into play. 
 The question will then arise, in what do these counteracting 
 agencies consist 1 To obtain an answer, it will be necessary 
 to weigh the question of Free Trade and Reciprocity to 
 trace out clearly the causes of the growth of trade, specify- 
 ing those which are under our own control and those that 
 will, in the ordinary course of events, continue to develcpe 
 trade by their own action. Beyond these, it will be neces- 
 sary to trace out the present condition of labour in our own 
 country ; the relation of population to food ; the probabilities 
 that surround the question of foreign competition as affecting 
 our future trade; the question of emigration and coloniza- 
 tion, as affording the proper means of removing a certain 
 portion of our surplus population and at the same time 
 developing trade ; and lastly, the value of our Indian 
 dependency. But all these points will fail of carrying their 
 necessary weight, unless the conviction is unwaveringly 
 fixed, that the time has come when the country requires 
 definite and vigorous efforts to restore it to its own place 
 amongst the growing powers of the world, and that, in order 
 to achieve this result, it is necessary to see our exact 
 position. 
 
 The first point which will be discussed is Free Trade 
 and Reciprocity.
 
 10 
 
 CHAPTER I. 
 
 FREE TRADE. 
 
 There is no term more misused than that of Free Trade. 
 From many platforms, in many newspapers and from the 
 mouths of many men, who are accepted as the leading 
 exponents of far reaching political thought, the term Free 
 Trade is used with a laxity and carlessness that cannot be 
 too strongly condemned. No fact is more patent than the 
 one that, either from ignorance or indifference, men are 
 applying to Free Trade arguments and reasonings which 
 were never enunciated by its founder, and which are not 
 legitimate deductions from its principles. Free Trade, in its 
 broadest and fullest sense, means the absolute freedom for 
 every country to deal with every other country, without the 
 intervention of either import or export duties. It asserts 
 still further that such a course of commercial policy is 
 distinctly beneficial to all concerned ; but it neither asserts 
 nor does it imply, that the reduction of import duties in one 
 country will be the cause of the growth of the export trade 
 of that same country, except so far as that reduction will 
 stimulate reflex action. 
 
 It seems almost idle to point out, that the reduction of an 
 import duty upon any one article of home consumption — 
 such as sugar for instance — can have no reference as to the 
 growth of any one of our exports — such as iron for instance — 
 except so far as the mere incidental relationship of the 
 countries whence the sugar comes, may be stimulated by the 
 purchase of more iron goods arising from the increased profits
 
 FREE TRADE, 11 
 
 of an increased trade. The reduction of an export duty is 
 based on the assumption, that the cheapness and freedom, 
 induced by the removal of the duty, will stimulate increased 
 consumption; but such duties are almost non-existent, and for 
 all practical purposes may be left unnoticed. The reduction of 
 an import duty finds at once its justification and explanation, 
 by the growth of the imports on which the duty has been re- 
 duced. If the import duties on tea had been reduced and the 
 consumption of tea had not increased it would have proved 
 that, with the classes who drink tea, the duty did not 
 prejudice the sale, and as such, the reduction of duty would 
 have been a mistake, as it would have wasted a given amount 
 of revenue. But when we find, as we do find, that when the 
 duties are reduced upon the great necessaries of life, the 
 rebound is large and vigorous, no further justification is 
 required as to the wisdom of the abolition of the duty. 
 The broad fact, that each reduction of our import duties 
 has been followed by increased consumption, in some cases 
 to so large an extent as to enable the reduced duty to 
 produce a larger revenue than it did under the higher rates, 
 establishes once and finally the wisdom of such legislation. 
 It is necessary to insist that this is the justification of the 
 reduction of our import duties ; because there is a grave 
 tendency to appeal to the growth of our export trade as a 
 justification of the reduction of our import duties. The two 
 points are broadly and essentially distinct. Our export trade 
 grows by, and is dependant upon, a series of special causes 
 which is altogether distinct from the question of the reduction 
 of our import duties. In what these consist is attempted to 
 be shewn in the next chapter. 
 
 All duties are in themselves evils, but which must exist, 
 and solely, for the purposes of revenue; being justifiable, only 
 on the ground, that they afford the most certain and the 
 least onerous mode of collecting such revenue. By a mere
 
 12 FREE TRADE. 
 
 accident, some duties on manufactured goods have acted 
 as a protection to home manufactures ; and by an entire 
 transition of thought, the duty, instead of being viewed as a 
 means for producing revenue, has come to be viewed as a 
 means for protecting home manufacturers from foreign 
 competition. It is therefore wise, for all who accept the 
 doctrine of Free Trade, to admit that the reduction of a 
 duty may be distinctly prejudicial to a special class who 
 have been fostered by the existence of the duty into a state 
 of dependance. The reduction of the duty on silk is said 
 to have produced a large amount of misery at Coventry 
 and Macclesfield and men clamour for its re-imposition ; 
 by a curious coincidence, numerous meetings have been 
 held in France to effect the same purpose in that country. 
 In each country the special injury, inseparable from change 
 of tariff, has produced a clamour, which marks a sense of 
 depression and want, but which is absolutely worthless as a 
 matter of argument. And it may be very justly asserted that 
 the outcry of the silk-weavers of our country is, in one 
 sense, a direct justification of the removal of the duty ; 
 for it proves conclusively that our own manufacturers were 
 unable to compete on fair terms with France, and therefore 
 the whole of the country was indirectly taxed to uphold the 
 special branch of trade carried on by the silk- weavers. 
 
 The same general feeling, that has been expressed in 
 connection with the Cobden Treaty, was expressed by the 
 agriculturists at the time of the projected repeal of the 
 Corn Laws : it was asserted throughout the whole of the 
 agricultural districts, that the farmers could not hold their 
 own if the import duties on corn were removed. The Corn 
 Laws were, however, repealed in spite of the clamour of 
 the agriculturists, and what has been the result? Our 
 
 iculturists have not only been enabled to hold their own, 
 but have improved their position year by year ever since,
 
 FEEE TRADE". 13 
 
 and the farmer of to-day is not only much richer but, as 
 a class, the whole character is changed : from being slow, 
 careless and heavy, he has become shrewd, scientific and 
 active. The nobler qualities, that often lie latent in the 
 English nature, have been developed by necessity, and the 
 man who, according to his own idea, was unequal to the 
 task of fighting the battle of competition without aid, has 
 proved himself more than equal to the emergency. The 
 same results will follow with reference to silk weaving, when 
 the consequences of change have had time to right themselves. 
 When the circumstances settle down to their natural level, 
 the men, who are to-day desponding, will look around and 
 find, that, as the field is perfectly open, they will be able 
 to hold their own by using the energy, care and taste that 
 are inherent in us as a people, Already some facts clearly 
 show, that they are beginning to see such a way out of their 
 difficulty. And it is quite clear, that as we buy our silk free 
 of import duty (the French can be no better placed) and there- 
 fore any protective duty would be simply a premium on 
 incompetence; — a condition, which is not only unsound, but 
 one, that our own manufacturers would be the very first to 
 repudiate, when brought clearly home to their minds. The 
 difference between the French and ourselves is simply a 
 difference of machinery and skill. 
 
 It is of course quite conceivable, that very harsh results 
 are at times to be traced to the rapid removal of an import 
 duty on manufactured goods. Many men who have been 
 reared in a trade, and who know no other, find, when old 
 age is creeping on them, that their trade is passing from 
 them by an Act of Parliament. It would seem that, placed 
 as our country at present is, some action should be taken to 
 soften the severity of such legislative changes. It may be 
 necessary, as a matter of broad policy, to remove a special 
 duty ; but it can never be wise to produce misery in so doing.
 
 14 FREE TRADE. 
 
 There are some countries in which Free Trade has had 
 some opportunity of realizing the ideas of those who uphold 
 its doctrines — in Europe notably in the Hanse Towns and 
 Holland — and it has proved itself true to the principles of its 
 originator. These states have reduced the duties on their 
 imports and, as a consequence, their imports have grown. 
 
 It appears necessary to insist again and again upon 
 Free Trade axioms, as there is a distinct tendency to uphold 
 changes on grounds that will not bear analysis. It has 
 been more or less definitely asserted, that the growth of 
 our export trade has been due to our recent legislative enact- 
 ments, meaning by that, that our reduction of import duties 
 has been the cause of the growth of our export trade, the 
 result is, that, when our trade ceases to grow with its 
 accustomed energy, men turn round and attack Free Trade 
 for the shortcomings, for which Free Trade is in no sense 
 responsible. The term " Free Trade " first obtained its 
 currency during the agitation for the repeal of the Corn 
 Laws, the point aimed at being Free Trade in Corn ; but 
 when that result was achieved, the men who had aided 
 in the passing of the great measure had become known 
 as Free Traders and thence has originated the very open 
 phrase of Free Trade. The wonderful growth of our export 
 trade since 1848 had dazzled men's eyes so completely, that 
 they neither asked nor cared to know how it came about. 
 They assumed, with a grave respectability, that it was due 
 to Free Trade; what was implied by the term, what were 
 the limitations, or what was the general reasoning on which 
 it was based, few cared to inquire and still fewer cared to 
 say. Circumstances have now somewhat changed. For 
 the first time during the last twenty years our commerce 
 has ceased to expand and it is every where asked — Why is 
 this ? How comes it that the powers that have fostered our 
 trade, until it has become the envy of the world, have
 
 FREE TRADE. 15 
 
 ceased to operate ? At a late Free Trade meeting at Man- 
 chester Mr. Wilson, in quoting statistics to show the value 
 of our Free Trade policy or what passes current under 
 that name, gave, with admirable clearness and force, the 
 statistics illustrative of the general growth of our trade ; 
 and, so far as the reasoning had reference to the advantages 
 derived by the great mass of the people from the abolition 
 of duties on all the necessaries of life, the position was 
 absolutely unanswerable ; but when from the same figures 
 deductions were made, as illustrative of the cause of the 
 enormous growth of our export trade, the result aimed at 
 was neither so conclusive nor so satisfactory, and the reason 
 why is not far to seek. So long as the question rested upon 
 the removal of import duties and the growth of our imports, 
 the figures were clear and the connection positive and 
 satisfactory. One tabulated form after another answered 
 one question after another, until the brain wearied of the 
 endless iteration. Beyond this, there was the great moral 
 truth, that the toiling millions of our country have the 
 unchallangeable right to buy food in the cheapest markets 
 of the world. But when the orator, growing with his subject, 
 spread out before his enthusiastic audience the growth of our 
 export trade — marvellous in its very fecundity — and claiming 
 to be the direct result of Free Trade action, the reasoning 
 halted. With an instinctive sagacity, men asked, and asked 
 justly, what is the connection between the reduction of 
 import duties and the growth of export trade ? Where is 
 the link ? What is the sense of dependance that unites the 
 one to the other ? To say, as men have said, that the growth 
 of our imports is the direct stimulus to the growth of our 
 exports, is to say that which the veriest tyro in the 
 knowledge of statistical facts will know to be inaccurate. 
 A reference to the Board of Trade returns will show what 
 such assertions are worth. The totals of our imports and of
 
 16 FREE TRADE. 
 
 our exports bear some relationship to each other, but the 
 imports from, and the exports to, individual countries vary- 
 to an enormous extent. But it is said, if the growth of 
 our trade be not dependent upon the connection between 
 our imports and exports, on what does it depend ? How 
 comes it, that more or less coincident with the repeal of our 
 various import duties, there has ever been an increase in our 
 export trade ? The answer is, firstly, that this is not strictly- 
 accurate ; and secondly, that a series of other causes was at 
 play whose influences are distinctly traceable. With regard 
 to the first, from 1840 to 1848, a period of nine years, the 
 total growth of our export trade was as follows : — 
 1848 - - - - £52,840,445 
 1840 --- - 51,406,430 
 
 Being a nominal increase of - £1,434,015 
 And yet, during these years, our Free Trade policy had been 
 more or less definitely at work — the duties on corn, rice, 
 coffee, timber, currants, wool, glass, sugar, cotton, butter, 
 cheese, &c, had either been repealed or largely reduced. If 
 the reduction of our import duties be a cause of the growth 
 of our export trade, how came it that no more definate 
 evidence of it was shown during the nine years here specified? 
 To all this there seems but one answer, that is, that, either 
 from the apparent insignificance of the subject or from the 
 pleasure derived in following out the wondrous harmony that 
 always belongs to a great general principle, the bulk of those, 
 who have been instrumental in bringing our country to a due 
 recognition of the acknowledged value of Free Trade, did not 
 think it worth while to trace out the more common-place 
 causes that absolutely underlie the development of all 
 trade. But, as different times are now dawning upon us, 
 and, as the claim for reciprocity is loudly proclaimed, it 
 becomes necessary to trace out more definitely some of the
 
 / 
 
 FREE TRADE. 17 
 
 causes that have developed our trade, in order that we may 
 clearly understand on vrhat influence we can rely for its 
 further growth. 
 
 Throughout the whole of the discussion it has been 
 assumed that Free Trade really exists ; yet nothing can be 
 further from the fact. Free Trade exists in part in England, 
 but as regards both Europe and America it has substantially 
 no existence. With certain exceptions heavy import duties 
 are still levied on English goods throughout the continent 
 generally. The same remarks apply with reference to 
 America, so that our position is this : we, as a country, buy 
 in the cheapest markets, and the great bulk of the nations 
 of the Continent and America do not. The government 
 has just issued a return of the duties levied on English 
 manufactures, entering foreign ports, and which embraces 
 the following countries: Russia, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, 
 Zollverein, Hamburg, Bremen, Holland, Belgium, France, 
 Portugal, Spain, Italy, Papal States, Austria,- Switzerland, 
 Greece, Turkey, United States. With one exception, that 
 of Hamburg, every article of English manufacture has to pay 
 duty. In one case as high as £56 10s, 4d. per cwt., and 
 on a large number of cases at 15, 20, 25, 30, and 40 per 
 cent, ad val\ so that the check upon the growth of our 
 manufactures is both very strong and very marked. There 
 is one point, on which those who claim reciprocity, are 
 distinctly right. They see, and seeing claim, that other 
 nations should trust us as we trust them ; but the error of 
 this position is, that we have no power to compel other 
 nations to follow out our doctrines and any attempt to 
 punish them by reimposing import duties would simply 
 recoil on ourselves. If import duties were imposed as a 
 mere matter of reprisal, the actual result would be that all 
 consumers throughout the country would be taxed for the 
 mere support of a particular trade. Besides which the mere 
 
 c
 
 18 FREE TRADE. 
 
 fact of a tariff being imposed as a coercion would in itself be 
 a mistake, for though something may be gained by judgment 
 and tact, but little can be hoped for from threats and anger. 
 The position of our manufacturing industry is one of grave 
 difficulty, but we shall achieve more by calm sense and good 
 temper, than we shall ever approximate to by quarrelling. 
 
 There is no doubt that if the foreign tariffs could be 
 reduced the immediate effect would be a large increase of 
 our export trade. But, as that is one of those things still 
 lying in the future, we can only recognise that Free Trade 
 has not done its work, and that, as we cannot compel other 
 nations to modify their tariffs against their will, our business 
 is to leave these points to the action of the future, and to 
 trace out other causes that will stand us in equally good 
 stead. And as a preliminary, it will be necessary to analyze 
 carefully the various conditions connected with our past 
 growth of trade, for which purpose we will pass to the 
 next chapter.
 
 19 
 CHAPTER n. 
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 It has been asserted that the evidence already deducible 
 from our export trade points to the existence of a series 
 of special causes influencing and developing its growth. 
 The question now before us is to understand clearly in what 
 they consist, and how and under what circumstances they have 
 come into play. In order that the point may be distinctly 
 understood, it will be wise for us to take some special year 
 from which all comparisons shall be made ; for that purpose 
 the year 1840 has been selected, it being previous to the 
 development of Free Trade doctrines ; and, as the comparison 
 will be carried on up to the present year, 1869, we shall have 
 before us the whole range of figures and events on which our 
 present commercial policy is founded. 
 
 To obtain a clear conception of a subject, it may be neces- 
 sary, at times, to analyse it carefully into its component parts. 
 In applying this course to the question before us, we find that 
 our exports from 1840 to 1868 show a growth of about 128 
 millions: our exports in 1840 being £'51,406,430, and our 
 exports in 1868 being £179,463,644. The questions then 
 arise, — how have our exports grown ; to what countries have 
 they gone ; and what special causes can we trace by which 
 their growth has been accelerated or retarded. As a broad 
 statement of the case, the increase of our exports has been 
 mainly in those sent to France, Holland, Ilanse Towns, 
 Russia, Turkey, Egypt, Japan, California, the United States, 
 Australia, India and China; and the growth in the exports to 
 these respective countries is more or less directly coincident 
 with certain special causes that came into play at the time 
 
 c2
 
 20 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 their trade was developed. For instance, the growth of oar 
 trade with France was distinctly dne to the Crimean War and 
 the Cobden Treaty ; that with the Hanse Towns to our Exhi- 
 bition and their own reduced tariffs; that with Kussia and 
 Turkey, to the Crimean War and to the relationship esta- 
 blished with those countries by the influence of our govern- 
 ment and capital ; that with Japan and Hong Kong to the 
 opening of free ports ; that with Australia and California to 
 the gold discoveries ; and that with India and China to the 
 military operations connected with our position. The statis- 
 tics of our trade with each of these countries will be taken 
 separately in detail, and traced through to their legitimate 
 results. By this means we shall arrive at a sound con- 
 clusion on the principles that more immediately affect the 
 growth of trade. 
 
 It will be well, as a preliminary step, to have before our 
 minds the one broad fact, that the producer and consumer 
 form the basis of all trade ; and that the merchant, wholesale 
 dealer, exporter, agent, and retail seller are simply middle 
 men by whom, for the sake of convenience, the goods pass 
 from the producer to the consumer. We have also to shift 
 our mind away from the totals of exports, which are only 
 the chronicled results — to the consideration of the causes that 
 produce sale amongst the consumers themselves. When we 
 say that so many hundreds of millions of yards of cotton 
 have been exported, we have to bring our mind to watch in 
 detail, how the great mass becomes disintegrated piece by 
 piece until we notice where a few yards are sold by the retail 
 seller to the poor consumer. That point forms the turning 
 point of commerce. The causes that influence the develop- 
 ment of such sales are the causes that influence our whole 
 export trade; for the commerce of the world is based on the 
 necessities of the many, not on the fancies of the few ; and 
 whatever cause can be pointed out as naturally acting on
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 21 
 
 the great body of the people may be accepted as a cause 
 that developes our bulk trade. 
 
 What, then, are the causes that directly affect the develop- 
 ment of trade amongst consumers ? 1st, Knowledge of the 
 existence of manufactures ; 2nd, knowledge of the people by 
 whom these are produced ; and, 3rd, the opportunity to 
 purchase. With regard to the first, it does not matter how 
 good, how cheap, or how useful any goods may be, if they 
 are not known to those to whom they are fitted, no trade 
 takes place. Nor does it matter how superb an article 
 may be, unless it fulfils the conditions of sufficient publicity 
 the same result will follow. If a man had a statue by 
 Phidias or a picture by Michael Angelo and placed it 
 in a back street, it might remain for hundreds of years 
 unsold and unknown ; but if the same statue or picture were 
 placed in a leading thoroughfare of London or Paris, it 
 would soon find a purchaser : because the knowledge of its 
 existence would be sure to reach those who desired to possess 
 it. A nation is in a back street whose intercourse with other 
 nations is limited, and whose means of communication are 
 imperfect. And any cause, such as railways, that tends to 
 remove these impediments is a cause that developes trade. 
 
 It adds but little te the force of this assertion to say that, 
 it is an accepted axiom, that a tradesman requires to make 
 his wares known, in order to bring their use, beauty or fitness, 
 clearly and definitely before those whom he wishes to become 
 purchasers ; and should he fail or be prevented doing this, 
 his trade will stand still. If, on the contrary, he takes the 
 opposite course, and bring his wares well under the notice 
 of other men, he will create a want and supply it at the 
 same time. How many of us are there who go on from 
 year to year without some given article, until by accident 
 we see it in a shop window, are struck by its appropriateness 
 and purchase it, and ever after it becomes to us a necessity.
 
 22 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 Such a case is a simple illustration of the processes by which 
 trade grows; and the public recognition of this principle, 
 which bears evidence, in our export returns, of having 
 aided the growth of our past export trade, first found its 
 utterance in our International Exhibitions, which are nothing 
 more than great national bazaars. 
 
 The illustrations given are simply the illustrations of 
 the influence the goods themselves have upon the develop- 
 ment of trade by being brought into sufficient notice. 
 Such a cause is perfectly apart from any question a3 
 to who the producer or seller may be; but, beyond the 
 mere influence of the goods themselves, there is always 
 the secondary influence mutually exercised by peoples. So 
 long as a nation suffers from prejudice and the want of 
 knowledge, so long as one people stands to another in the 
 relationship that they neither know nor care to know, so 
 long does trade languish. Any cause that removes these 
 obstacles, developes trade : and no cause has more clearly 
 produced these results than War. 
 
 It will be readily admitted, that the knowledge that 
 one nation has of another will vary very largely under 
 the action of different causes. For instance, it will be 
 quite clear that the sort of knowledge the Turks, as 
 a people, had of us as a people, would be very dif- 
 ferent after, to what it was before, the outbreak of the 
 Crimean war. The mere contact of the two peoples, under 
 such circumstances, would inevitably create a sympathy 
 different from that which previously existed. The same 
 remarks will apply to Egypt, France and Kussia and, with 
 some modifications, also to India and China, and the 
 results are manifested in our trading with these various 
 countries. It has been asserted that war has a distinct 
 influence on the Growth of Trade. The statistical proofs 
 of this fact will appear further on, detailed in connection
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 23 
 
 With the various countries that have been selected ; but the 
 broad question is, how comes it, that war should produce 
 such results? The answer is, war acts through a series of 
 causes. Not only are people brought distinctly into con- 
 tact with one another; — not only are conditions established 
 which underlie all commercial life; but the power of a 
 country to buy or sell, the characteristics that belong to 
 her, her capacities of growth, her undeveloped resources 
 are all more or less brought vividly into view, and thus 
 stimulate trade. Notably has this been the case with 
 Turkey — and the result has been, that Capital, the great 
 sinew alike of war and peace, has flowed continuously into 
 her coffers. Loan has followed loan and each successive 
 advance has tended to bind our commercial relations more 
 closely and to lift her, so far as she can be lifted, into a 
 position of respectability and power. The mere fact, that the 
 strong brains of English Capitalists are thrown into the 
 question, is in itself an element of growth, and an element 
 that probably would not have existed but for the outbreak of 
 the Crimean war. 
 
 Let us take another case; the one the most opposed 
 to the probability of the view here enunciated; — that 
 of Eussia. Previous to the outbreak of war, Russia 
 had stood to this country as a great menace ; the power 
 wielded by the Czar had been developed with such un- 
 tiring energy and skill, that the subtle diplomacy of 
 the Muscovite was a favourite illustration amongst all 
 European diplomatists. This reputation for power and 
 ability was aided by the anomalous position at that 
 time maintained alike by Prussia and Austria. Their 
 complicity in the dismemberment of Poland bound them 
 by a tie, none the less real, because it was equally dis- 
 honorable. But connected as the German powers were, at 
 that time with Russia, by treaties, intermarriages and
 
 24 THE GROWTH ^OF TRADE. 
 
 blood relationships, it seemed almost a possibility that 
 the words of the 1st Napoleon might be realized — that 
 Europe would become either Cossack or Republican: — and 
 taken in conjunction with the events of 1848, and the 
 utter and unsparing stamping out of the very embers 
 of the Revolution, it seemed more probable to be the 
 former than the latter. The results of the Crimean war 
 changed all this. The power of Russia was shattered and 
 the morale of her position destroyed. A change was 
 produced in her people both extensive and distinct, and 
 the position in which we stood after the war was marked 
 by the general rising of our status as a nation — not only 
 throughout Europe — but perceptily throughout Russia her- 
 self; and thus the stand point of our commercial interests 
 had risen, from the mere fact that we had conquered. 
 
 Beyond the immediate action of war in the development 
 of trade, there is that more silent and more subtle influence 
 which belong to the civilising agencies that we, as a nation, 
 are exercising upon all other nations with whom we come 
 in contact. Without arrogating to ourcelves any special 
 supremacy, there can be little doubt that at the present 
 time all things English have a certain repute and fashion. 
 To what an enormous extent this and similar influences affect 
 our export trade is not at first sight clearly apparent. But 
 let us take two or three instances and see whither they lead 
 us. At the present moment, throughout the whole of Europe, 
 as well as in India and America, English thoughts and 
 English habits are largely gaining ground. In Germany our 
 language is being taught in the great majority of the schools ; 
 in France the present Emperor has stamped English 
 idiosyncrasies on French thought, even to the bull terrier 
 and jockey club. At our universities the same influence is 
 at work, and we find there the heirs presumptive to various 
 thrones mingling in English life and imbibing tastes that will
 
 THE GROWTII OF TEADE. 25 
 
 inevitably be stamped in some degree on the people whom 
 they are intended to govern. All these causes combine and 
 recombine towards one end, — that of creating a demand for 
 English productions. 
 
 It may and probably will be urged that this growth of 
 trade is due to the goodness of our manufactures. In one 
 sense this is true. Our manufactures would not be per- 
 manently sold if they were not good ; but if they were ever 
 so good, from the point of view which is now being urged, they 
 would not obtain the same sale if they were not fashionable. 
 The term fashionable is here used in a very open sense — 
 meaning, not the mere follies that are prevalent to-day and 
 thrown aside on the morrow ; but that largely appreciative 
 sense thathasa tendency to infuse itself into the very life of a 
 people, and which is only imbibed by them when time has 
 established the warranty of its goodness and soundness. We 
 may also refer here to the influence of the English travelling 
 public. Whatever else they may do, they carry our language, 
 our habits, and our manners throughout Europe, and by their 
 own wants, as well as their general influence, aid the cause 
 here indicated. The result is to be traced in the great silent 
 growth of our trade over the whole of Europe, as illustrated by 
 the rise of our exports through the Hanse Towns and elsewhere. 
 
 W e now pass to the consideration of the influence that the 
 Gold Discoveries and Emigration have had upon our Export 
 trade. The result of the Gold Discoveries in California and 
 Australia were, at the time, most marked, so far as the 
 power exercised on the minds of all intending emigrants. 
 The public mind was influenced to an extent rarely seen, 
 and men of all classes and conditions of life threw up 
 steady pursuits to follow the dream of a probable Eldorado. 
 The results show themselves in the returns. In 1851, the year 
 of the discovery of gold in Australia, the number of emigrants 
 who left England for Australia and New Zealand were 21,532.
 
 26 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 1852 .--- 87,881 
 
 1853 --- - 61,401 
 
 1854 --- - 83,237 
 
 The mere fact that this mass of population was poured into a 
 new country would naturally produce an increased growth of 
 our exports. And the results are apparent in the amounts 
 themselves. Our exports to Australia in 
 
 1852 were - - 4,222,205 
 
 1853 - - - 14,513,700 
 
 1854 - - - 11,931,352 
 
 And the same general facts appear with regard to California. 
 
 In 
 
 1846 our Emigrants - 82,239 
 
 1847 ---- 142,154 
 
 1848 .... 188,233 
 
 And our exports during the same years were as under : — 
 
 1846 - - - 6,830,460 
 
 1847 - - - 10,974,161 
 
 1848 - - - 9,564,909 
 
 The reason why the statistics to Australia are taken for 
 one year later than for America, is that the great distance 
 between Australia and England throws the returns so many 
 months later than would be the case with America. The 
 connection between our own country and America being so 
 rapid and intimate, the action of any cause at once 
 manifests itself. With regard to California, there is some diffi- 
 culty in getting at the permanent influence the discovery of 
 gold exercised either upon emigration or our export trade, as 
 the returns are so made up as to blend California with the 
 United States. It also happened that the discovery of gold 
 in California was coincident with the great mass emigration 
 from Ireland, which immediately followed the Irish famine 
 in 1845 — 1846. We have therefore two difficulties before us. 
 The one, the imperfection of the returns ; the other, the co-
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 27 
 
 incidence of another cause of emigration. But, as the 
 assumed value of the discovery of gold in any particular 
 part of the world is based on the ground that the direct 
 influence of such discovery is to develope trade through 
 the instrumentality of a large emigration to that particular 
 place, any cause which happens to act simultaneously to 
 produce the same result, may be classed with it; as the 
 principle point, that the discovery of gold enables us to clear 
 up, is the direct and tangible influence exerted upon our 
 export trade through the aid of a large emigration. 
 
 With regard to the influence of emigration, it will be 
 quite clear, that those, who have been nurtured in our habits 
 of life, who have our tastes, manners, and customs, will 
 carry their predilictions for our special manufactures into 
 any new home they may found. The thoughts and feel- 
 ings that are moulded into our being through the plastic 
 life of childhood and ingrained into us through the more 
 enduring, if less sensitive, time of our manhood, will remain 
 with us, as an inalienable portion of our being through all 
 circumstances and in any part of the world. No educa- 
 tion is stronger than the education of habit ; it is with us 
 a second life, to be worn out only by slow decay; and 
 this quality links our emigrants to us, and in so doing aids 
 our manufacturers. The artisan, who lands at New York 
 or Melbourne with little money and no friends, whatever 
 else may have failed him, has fully tested the trustworthiness 
 of his clothes and his tools; and with the instinctive rever- 
 ence that ever clings to the known and tried, he will 
 greet with pleasure in a new world and amid new faces 
 the familiar names of English manufacturers. In one sense 
 we are all conservatives ; we hold to that which we have 
 tested and not found wanting, and that great mass wave of 
 population that flows ever from our shores, to be absorbed by 
 other lands, still clings to us by this feeling of the past. The
 
 28 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 conditions here asserted are mere matters of reasoning. What 
 are the facts ? Let us take the two cases now chosen, that 
 of Australia and that of the United States and California, 
 and place in opposite columns the growth of our exports and 
 the mass of our emigration, year by year, so that we may 
 have the circumstances clearly before us. 
 
 The first thing that shows itself, in looking over these re- 
 turns, is the absolutely stationary character of our export 
 trade with Australia from 1840 to 1849, the returns in those 
 two years being almost identical in amount. The next point 
 is, that the trade showed distinct signs of retrograding up to 
 the year 1847, and that during that time the emigration and 
 exports fell off together. It is also apparent, that when 
 emigration again set towards Australia, our exports again 
 rose ; and they sprang into full force and power under the 
 influence of the gold discovery in 1851. The rise of our 
 exports in the two following years to more than five times 
 their previous amount will be a clear illustration of the 
 influence of that discovery. In 1853 — 4 the exports from 
 England to Australia had been largely in excess of the 
 demands, and the consequence was that in 1855 our exports 
 receded, until the natural impulse of growth again forced 
 them upwards. It would be tedious to point out all the 
 minute influences that go towards making up the sum total 
 of an export trade ; and also the various causes that affect 
 it, such as good or bad harvests, agreement or disagree- 
 ment between the houses of Legislature ; and yet all 
 these tend to elevate or depress returns. Enough will 
 have been done if the statistics show clearly the con- 
 nection between emigration and export trade ; and also the 
 special influence exercised on that trade by the discovery of 
 gold. The next case — that of California — is less simple in its 
 results, but it illustrates more vividly the immediate action 
 of such discoveries.
 
 THE GKOWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 29 
 
 
 
 AUSTRALIA. 
 
 
 Year. 
 
 
 Emigration. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 1840 
 
 - 
 
 15,850 
 
 £2,051,625 
 
 1841 
 
 - 
 
 32,625 
 
 1,336,626 
 
 1842 
 
 - 
 
 8,534 
 
 958,952 
 
 1843 
 
 - 
 
 3,478 
 
 1,307,062 
 
 1844 
 
 - 
 
 2,229 
 
 791,994 
 
 184.5 
 
 - 
 
 830 
 
 1,244,121 
 
 1846 
 
 - 
 
 2,347 
 
 1,441,640 
 
 1847 
 
 - Irish famine - 
 
 4,949 
 
 1,644,170 
 
 1848 
 
 . 
 
 23,904 
 
 1,463,931 
 
 1849 
 
 - 
 
 32,191 
 
 2,080,364 
 
 1850 
 
 - 
 
 16,037 
 
 2,602,253 
 
 1851 
 
 Discovery of Guld 
 
 21,532 
 
 2,807,356 
 
 1852 
 
 - 
 
 87,881 
 
 4,222,20£ 
 
 1853 
 
 - 
 
 61,401 
 
 14,513,700 
 
 1854 
 
 - 
 
 83,237 
 
 11,931,352 
 
 1855 
 
 - 
 
 52,309 
 
 6,278,966 
 
 1856 
 
 - 
 
 44,584 
 
 9,912,575 
 
 1857 
 
 . 
 
 61,248 
 
 11,632,524 
 
 1858 
 
 - 
 
 39,295 
 
 10,463,032 
 
 1859 
 
 - 
 
 31,013 
 
 11,229,448 
 
 1860 
 
 . 
 
 24,302 
 
 9,707,261 
 
 1861 
 
 - 
 
 23,738 
 
 10,292,771 
 
 1862 
 
 - Exhibition - 
 
 41,843 
 
 11,944,506 
 
 1863 
 
 . 
 
 53,054 
 
 12,498,534 
 
 1864 
 
 - 
 
 40,942 
 
 11,857,213 
 
 1865 
 
 - 
 
 37,283 
 
 13,339,241 
 
 1866 
 
 . 
 
 24,097 
 
 13,643,326 
 
 1867 
 
 Dead Lock at Melbourne 14,466 
 
 9,613,739 
 
 1868 
 
 . 
 
 12,809 
 
 12,071,435
 
 80 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 The same general remarks that were made with reference 
 to Australia will apply also to the returns of the United States 
 and California. Emigration and exports are clearly and 
 distinctly co-related. The first great impulse in our exports 
 occur in 1847, the year of the discovery of gold in California 
 and the commencement of that great mass of emigration that 
 set for seven years so steadily from this country towards the 
 United States. It must be understood that emigration is only 
 considered as one cause — and a cause that will be modified 
 one way or the other, according as any second influence 
 is in favour of, or opposed to, the development of our trade. 
 For instance, the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861 and the 
 closing of all trade with the Southern States, manifested itself 
 by reducing our exports one-half, In this case the Civil War 
 acted by destroying our existing trade with the Southern 
 States ; and so has reduced the apparent influence of our 
 emigration. The converse holds good in 1866, when, under 
 the influence of speculative capital brought into play through 
 the general mania of the time, our exports reached their 
 highest point. W T hat is intended to be asserted is, that our 
 export trade is due to a series of causes, of which emigration 
 is one ; and that these causes combine and recombine to produce 
 a total result. That, in order to trace those causes out clearly, 
 it is necessary to take them one by one and watch their in- 
 fluences under circumstances when they are the least disturbed. 
 For that purpose Australia and the United States have been 
 chosen under the aspect now delineated, as illustrations of the 
 influence of emigration, combined with the discovery of gold. 
 
 It is curious to note how the tide of emigration ebbs and 
 flows. Under the impulse of the panic induced by the famine 
 of 1845, it rose to its height in the years 1850, 1851, 1852, 
 and 1853, and then gradually receded, until, in 1858, it 
 reached its former level ; it has again bounded forward, and 
 promises in the next year or two to reach its highest point.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 31 
 
 UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA. 
 
 Year. Emigration. Export. 
 
 1840 - - - 40,642 - - - £5,283,020 
 
 1841 - - - 45,017 - - - 7,098,642 
 
 1842 - - - 63,852 - - - 3,528,807 
 
 1843 - - . 28,335 - - - 5,013,514 
 
 1844 - - - 43,660 - - - 7,938,079 
 
 1845 - - - 58,538 - - - 7,142,839 
 
 1846 Irish Famine - 82,239 - 6,830,460 
 
 1847 Discovery of Gold 142,154 - - - 10,974,161 
 
 in California » ' ' 
 
 1848 - - - 188,233 - - - 9,564,909 
 
 1849 - - - 219,450 - - - 11,971,028 
 
 1850 - 223,078 - - - 14,891,961 
 
 1851 Exhibition - 267,357 - - - 14,362,976 
 
 1852 - - - 244,261 - - - 16,567,737 
 
 1853 - - - 230,885 - - - 23,658,427 
 
 1854 - - - 193,065 - - - 21,410,369 
 
 1855 - - - 103.414 - - - 17,318,086 
 
 1856 - - - 111,837 - - - 21,918,105 
 
 1857 Financial crisis . 126,905 - - - 18,985,939 
 
 in England ' ' ' 
 
 1858 - - - 59,716 - - - 14,491,448 
 
 1859 - - - 70,303 - - - 22,553,405 
 
 1860 - - - 87,500 - - - 21,667,065 
 
 1861 outbreak of civil . 49,764 - - - 9,064,504 
 
 War » ' ' 
 
 1862 - - - 58,706 - - - 14,327,870 
 
 1863 - - - 146,813 - - - 15,344,392 
 
 1864 Limited Liability . 1 47,042 - - - 16,708,505 
 
 Act. 
 
 1865 - - - 147,258 - - - 21,227,956 
 
 1866 - - - 161,000 - - - 28,499,514 
 
 1867 - - - 159,275 - - - 21,826,703 
 
 1868 - - - 155,532 - - - 24,410,184
 
 32 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 Let us now pass to the considerations of the influences 
 that Exhibitions are supposed to have exercised on trade, 
 At the opening of the Exhibition of 1851, the whole of 
 the circumstances, that could produce a successful result, 
 were brought freely into play. Imperial pageantry, inter- 
 national courtesy and diplomatic suavity were all made 
 to aid in the development of a royal idea, and the success 
 of the Exhibition, simply as an Exhibition, was unequalled. 
 Not only as a mere show was the effort successful; its 
 influence on trade was also very large. For the first time 
 in history, nations were invited from all parts of the world 
 to take part in rendering homage to mere commercial 
 pursuits ; and for the first time it was proclaimed as a prin- 
 ciple, that trade was paramount, Dreams of universal peace 
 and universal brotherhood were largely indulged in, until 
 they were disturbed by the rude utterances of war. 
 
 Yet with all this, there were some results that were left 
 unchallenged. The Exhibition ennobled commerce : men 
 from various parts of the world had learned to look upon 
 trade, and more particularly English trade, from a point of 
 view they had never previously approached, and the result was 
 that trading relations were not only cemented but extended. 
 The ideas associated with our Palace of Industry were those of 
 royalty, wealth and elegance, and all these were aided by the 
 very structure of the building, as it rose in its fragile beauty 
 spanning the noble trees and looking out to the clear sky 
 beyond. To ourselves as well as to others it was a great 
 lesson, the influence of which has not yet died out. It 
 taught us not only what we could, but what we could not 
 do, and it placed before us by illustrations, stronger than any 
 language, how much inferior our art productions were to 
 those of our compeers : and from that teaching has emanated 
 our South Kensington Museum and our present demand 
 for Technical Education.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 33 
 
 All these things influence trade, both directly and 
 indirectly. In an earlier part of this chapter it was pointed 
 out, that the personal knowledge of buyer and seller forms 
 an important link in the growth of trade, and in one sense the 
 first Exhibition aided this. Men, who for years had known 
 each other by name, came to know each other as a matter of 
 fact, and thus built up relations that produced a mutual good. 
 The mere prestige of the "world's bazaar" brought men 
 from every quarter of the habitable world and they carried 
 away with them to their distant homes the memory of 
 English productions, that bore fruit then and has borne 
 fruit since. At the time, amongst the whole of our manu- 
 facturers it was recognised as an unchallengeable fact, that 
 the Exhibition had stimulated trade, that orders were 
 plentiful and that its success was great. 
 
 The statistics do more than bear this point out, the bound 
 in our exports is both clear and decisive. It will be 
 necessary to notice here that the direct results of the 
 Exhibition would not be manifest until the year after 
 it closed, and would most probably extend twelve 
 months beyond. The Exhibition did not close until the 
 end of the year, the orders given during the time would 
 be delivered partly in the year 1851 and partly in 1852 
 and the return orders some months later, so that the 
 effects would appear in the following years. The statistics 
 here given show very markedly the growth of our exports 
 at the particular epochs. 
 
 Our Exports in 1851 were £74,448,722 
 
 1852 „ 78,076,854 
 
 1853 „ 98,933,781 
 Showing an advance in the two years of £24,485,050 
 
 The same results are apparent in the two years after our 
 second Exhibition :
 
 34 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 Cur Exports in 1862 were £123,992,264 
 
 1863 „ 146,602,342 
 
 1864 „ 160,449,053 
 Showing an advance in the two years of £36,456,789 
 
 In looking at these figures it must be remembered, that 
 the results here manifested embrace the action of other causes 
 besides that of the Exhibition. For instance, in 1851 the furore 
 of the gold fever in Australia was in full force, and there was 
 also flowing from our shores the great emigration that fol- 
 lowed the Irish Famine ; both these causes would combine to 
 swell the returns of 1S52, 1853. At the second Exhibition 
 another influence was at work, the results of which are 
 quite as manifest, viz. : the operations brought into play in 
 connection with Limited Liability. This act came into 
 operation in November 1803, was immediately taken up 
 by speculators and was in full force in 18C4. The result is 
 manifested in the returns of our export trade in that year, 
 and also in those of 18G5, 18G6. To some it may appear 
 dubious that the Limited Liability Act should have this 
 influence ; a little examination will shew the reason why. 
 There is no question that, at the time of the speculation 
 mania, companies for every conceivable purpose w T ere floated 
 into existence, some useful, some stupid and some mere 
 frauds ; but, whether good, bad or indifferent ; whether they 
 paid dividends or not ; whether they ruined shareholders or 
 not, during the time of their existence they stimulated trade. 
 To what extent they acted may be gathered from a statement 
 that appeared in the Money Article of The Times, in which 
 it was stated that during the continuance of the mania, 
 companies, representing a capital of 800 millions, had either 
 been projected or actually brought out. A mere moiety of 
 the amount here named would be sufficient to explain a large 
 increase in speculative trading. 
 
 The companies that were brought into being ranged
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 35 
 
 from those that were absurd by their triviality to those 
 that propounded to their shareholders the idea of con- 
 structing railways and rebuilding cities. All were equally 
 available for the mere purposes of creating a direction 
 and robbing the credulous. Amongst those who dealt in 
 such operations it was considered of great value to give 
 a look of mercantile reality to the transaction ; and for 
 furthering such views foreign contracts, foreign railways 
 and foreign banks were made to float largely on the surface : 
 and, as a rule, the} 7- had some connection, more or less real, 
 with our foreign trade. If a railway were projected, it 
 would be necessary to make some show of work ; and the 
 consequence was that rails, carriages, engines, tenders, 
 etc., &c, would be bought from our manufacturers, and would 
 figure in the total of our export trade. The same remarks 
 can be applied to a series of cases, and would furnish 
 an explanation of some portion of that large growth of our 
 export trade during the time referred to. 
 
 Let us now pass to detailed causes ; the general reasoning 
 that connects war and trade has already been given. We 
 have now to trace out the results, and see how far it has 
 actually operated in the growth of our exports. The various 
 wars, that fall within the time specified, 1340 — 1869, are the 
 Crimean War, the China War and the Indian Mutiny. The 
 New Zealand War, the Abysinian War and the Caffir War 
 are omitted, because the reasoning which will be true of 
 the larger, will be true of the smaller, and also because, as 
 a substantial result affecting our export trade, we can afford 
 to disregard the latter. 
 
 Let us take a case which will include the largest variety ; 
 and place most conspicuously the results of the action of 
 war within our grasp. For that purpose the Crimean War 
 has been selected ; it was the most important as well as 
 the longest sustained, and its influence on France, Italy, 
 
 d2
 
 38 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 Turkey and Russia herself can be clearly traced ; the 
 facts in each case bearing 1 out the inference now sought to 
 be deduced. 
 
 FRANCE. 
 
 The country which has been first taken is that of France, 
 for the reason that it embraces three points : the first is the 
 action of war, which affects the exports, from 1854 to 1857 ; 
 the second is the influence of the Cobden Treaty, which affects 
 our exports from 1860 to the present time ; and the third is 
 the influence of our speculative mania of 1864, 1865, and 
 1866. In each case, it will be found on examination, that our 
 exports rose very clearly and distinctly in connection with 
 each of these three causes. 
 
 It will be seen in looking over the figures that our exports 
 show little or no variation from 1840 to 1853, with one 
 exception, that of the year 1848, at which date they receded 
 to one-half their usual amount. The explanation is to be 
 found in the fact that the year 1848 was the year of the 
 outbreak of the Revolution, and, as a consequence, great 
 slackness of trade and a profound sense of insecurity were 
 general throughout France. When the first burst of its 
 influence had passed away, trade once more resumed its usual 
 conditions, and our exports stand at the ordinary amount, and 
 at this standard they remained until 1853. The year 1854 
 saw the outbreak of the Crimean War, and our association 
 with France in the struggle was at once manifested in our 
 returns, which immediately rose about half a million ; the 
 next year our exports were doubled, and at this height they 
 remained until the close of the war. The great impulse to 
 trade connected with our stiuggle gradually faded out, 
 until our exports had receded to what might be considered 
 their normal amount, an amount less than that which was 
 reached during the height of the war, but still considerably
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 37 
 
 FRANCE. 
 
 1840 ---... £2,378,149 
 
 1841 - - - - - 2,902,002 
 
 1842 ...... 3,193,939 
 
 1843 - - - - - - 2,534,898 
 
 1844 - - - - - - 2,656,259 
 
 1845 -----. 2,791,238 
 
 1846 ...... 2,715,963 
 
 1847 - - - - - 2,554,283 
 
 1848 - - Revolution - - 1,024,521 
 
 1849 - - - - - 1,951,269 
 
 1850 ...... 2,401,956 
 
 1851 - - First Exhibition - - 2,028,463 
 
 1852 ...... 2,731,286 
 
 1853 ...... 2,636,330 
 
 1854 J - - - - - - 3,175,290 
 
 1855 f - . - - 6,012,658 
 > Russian War 
 
 1856 ( - - - 6,432,650 
 
 1857 J - - - - - - 6,213,358 
 
 1858 ...... 4,863,131 
 
 1859 ...... 4,754,354 
 
 1860 - - Cobden Treaty - - 5,249,980 
 
 1861 ..-.-. 8,895,588 
 
 1862 - - Second Exhibition - - 9,209,367 
 
 1863 - - - - - 8,673,309 
 
 1864 - - Limited Liability - - 8,187,361 
 
 1865 - - - - - - 9,062,095 
 
 1866 ...... 11,700,140 
 
 1867 .... . 12,121,010 
 
 1868 ...... 10,633,721 
 
 398G91
 
 38 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 in advance of what it bad been previously to tbe out- 
 break of tbe war itself. Tbe final results would appear to 
 be, tbat war developes new relations wbicb continue to act, 
 although witb diminished force, after the original cause is 
 entirely removed. The next cause tbat influenced our 
 exports witb France was that of the Cobden Treaty. It 
 came into operation in I860, and under its influence our 
 exports in two years made an advance of nearly four millions; 
 and although the full amount has not been permanently 
 maintained, yet tbe result is sufficiently clear to indicate tbe 
 influence tbat treaty has exercised upon our commerce witb 
 France. Tbe action of our Limited Liabilitv Act and the 
 general speculative mania manifested itself in our exports to 
 France, as well as to other countries. 
 
 It is difficult, on looking at the points here indicated and 
 contrasting the time they came into play with the actual 
 returns of our exports, not to feel that they are related as 
 cause and effect. It seems equally impossible, on the theory 
 of tbe general cause of Free Trade, to make any sensible 
 explanation of the phenomena tbat present themselves to our 
 notice. Our trade with France remained stationary for 14 
 years and yet, during the whole of that time, Free Trade bad 
 been more or less definitely in action ; our exports then doubled 
 themselves. We naturally ask what is the cause ? We do not 
 suppose tbat orders drop from the skies, or that some fairy 
 has created an imaginary want ; men of common sense be- 
 lieve, and believe very naturally, that there is a cause for 
 every change, even where a tangible explanation is not 
 forthcoming ; but when the known requirements of war are 
 considered and our capacity as a manufacturing country to 
 satisfy those very requirements, tbe rise of our exports 
 through the action of war seems inevitable and, as a matter 
 of fact, tbe orders given to this country by France for all war 
 materials were very large.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 39 
 
 There is one point here that ought to be borne in mind 
 in order that the results may be put down at their proper 
 value. A cause of any kind may be in operation some 
 months before its effects are visible, and the results will 
 continue, after the cause has ceased to act. Let us illus- 
 trate this. Orders for goods whenever given, if represent- 
 ing any large amount, will usually take some months to 
 deliver, and they will only appear in our exports when 
 shipped from this country. In the present instance a 
 portion of the goods that appear in any year's returns, 
 say 1855, must have been ordered in 1854, so that an 
 allowance of time must be made before the actual results 
 appear in our export returns. The same remarks will apply 
 with reference to the continuance of a cause even after its 
 apparent action has ceased; let us push the same point 
 further. Suppose that our manufacturers had contracted 
 with the French government for given quantities of supplies 
 — those contracts must have been made on the footintr that 
 the war would have to be fought out, and as its duration, 
 until actually settled, must have remained an uncertainty, all 
 contracts would be made on full war conditions ; and the 
 moment the war ceased, the orders then existing would take 
 some number of months before they were completed. The 
 result would therefore be, that the influence would not at 
 first sight be so apparent, and -would remain an influence 
 after the cause, that brought it into play, had entirely ceased 
 to operate. This actually coincides with the facts, our 
 exports show no great expansion in the year of the out- 
 break of the war, but they appear in force for 12 or 15 
 months after its cessation. The actual influence of war on 
 our export trade will be most apparent when we bear in 
 mind, that for 14 years our trade with France had not grown 
 at all, and that the year after the outbreak of the war, 
 our exports with France had more than doubled themselves.
 
 40 THE GKOWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 TURKEY. 
 
 Our trade with Turkey evidences the influence of two 
 causes: the first, that of the Crimean War; the second, that of 
 our last Exhibition. With reference to the first, our exports 
 to Turkey do not show any growth from 1840 to 1854, 
 the years 3844, '45, '47, '48, '49, '50, all figure in our 
 exports for larger amounts than the years immediately pre- 
 ceding the outbreak of the war. So that, taking the fourteen 
 years here referred to, 1840 — 1853, we may assume that, the 
 differences which appear are differences arising from the 
 ordinary fluctuations of trade, and not those that indicate the 
 increase or decrease arising from fresh influences. It is 
 worth noticing that war was almost identical in its action 
 on France and Turkey. In both cases there was a mode- 
 rate increase in our export trade in the year of the out- 
 break of the Crimean War ; but in the year following 
 there was a remarkable expansion. In the case of Turkey 
 the cessation of the war produced the immediate effect of 
 a falling off in our exports ; but in the case of France the 
 same result w r as not manifested for some time after, being 
 due to the fact that the prominent position of France neces- 
 sitated larger and more permanent arrangements, which, 
 as a consequence, required a longer period before they 
 were fully completed. On the outbreak of the war our 
 exports to Turkey rose three-quarters of a million ; the 
 next year they doubled themselves ; and although they 
 receded from that amount, they never again sunk to their 
 original level. When they reached their lowest point, the 
 effects of the Exhibition of 1862 began to be felt, and our 
 exports again rose and have since permanently maintained 
 their position.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 41 
 
 TURKEY. 
 
 1840 £1,164,386 
 
 1841 - 1,254,945 
 
 1842 1,489,826 
 
 1843 ... - - 1,729,777 
 
 1844 ...... 2,319,605 
 
 1845 2,246,855 
 
 1846 - 1,749,125 
 
 1847 2,363,442 
 
 1848 2,664,281 
 
 1849 2,373,669 
 
 1850 2,515,821 
 
 1851 1,937,011 
 
 1852 2,079,913 
 
 1853 ..---- 2,029,305 
 
 1854 - Outbreak of Crimean War - 2,758,605 
 
 1855 - - - - - - 5,639,898 
 
 1856 4,416,029 
 
 1857 3,107,401 
 
 1858 4,255,612 
 
 1859 3,750,996 
 
 1860 4,408,910 
 
 1861 2,987,800 
 
 1862 - - Exhibition Year - - 3,487,761 
 
 1863 .----- 5,714,550 
 
 1864 5,977,918 
 
 1865 - - - - - - 5,677,830 
 
 1866 - 6,346,041 
 
 1867 5,482,153 
 
 1868 6,293,782 
 
 Up to the year 1845 the returns of Turkey include 
 
 Greece, Moldavia, and Wallachia.
 
 42 THE GROWTH OE TRADE. 
 
 ITALY. 
 
 The statistics of the Kingdom of Italy have not been 
 detailed out, as they are so blended with those of Austria and 
 the Papal States that they cannot be easily distinguished ; but, 
 those, who are curious on the matter, will find, on reference to 
 the returns, the same general principle manifesting itself as 
 appears in the returns of France and Turkey. 
 
 RUSSIA. 
 
 It may be here noticed that the actual exports in 1840 
 are about £400,000 more than they were in 1853; but as 
 the actual return of exports from year to year varies 
 from minute and often very trivial causes, it is deemed 
 unnecessary to take any notice whatever of any amount either 
 above or below an average, if it can be fairly assumed to be 
 a mere fluctuation, not a definite increase or decrease. 
 
 From 1845 to 1854, not only had there been no increase, 
 but the whole appearance of our exports indicated a steady 
 falling* off. The years when our exports reached their highest 
 were 1844 and 1845, and from those years the exports show 
 a gradual decrease, indicating either stagnation or retro- 
 gression, until the actual outbreak of the Crimean war. With 
 regard to the effect of war on Russia, the result will speak 
 for itself. Immediately on the peace our exports assumed a 
 higher point than they had held for some years previously to 
 the war, and then advanced with great rapidity for the three 
 following years. The force of the impetus that the war had 
 given to our trade then sank slowly away, until the year of 
 the Exhibition, 18G2, when our exports again rose, and since 
 then have advanced without ceasing.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 43 
 
 RUSSIA. 
 
 1840 £1,602,742 
 
 1841 ... - 1,607,175 
 
 1842 .-.--- 1,885,953 
 
 1843 ------ 1,895,519 
 
 1844 ------ 2,128,926 
 
 1845 ------ 2,153,491 
 
 1846 ------ 1,725,148 
 
 1847 - - ... 1,844,543 
 
 1848 ... . 1,925,226 
 
 1849 - .... 1,566,175 
 
 1850 - ... - 1,454,771 
 
 1851 - ... 1,289,704 
 
 1852 ------ 1,099,917 
 
 1853 - - - - - - 1,228,404 
 
 1854 - - Outbreak of War - - 54,301 
 
 1855 - - War 
 
 1856 - - Peace - - 1,595,237 
 
 1857 ------ 3,098,819 
 
 1858 - - - - - - 3,092,499 
 
 1859 ------ 4,038 ; 696 
 
 1860 ------ 3,268,479 
 
 1861 - 3,041,448 
 
 1862 - - Exhibition - - 2,070,918 
 
 1863 ... - 2,695,276 
 1864 2,846,409 
 
 1865 - - - 2,923,006 
 
 1866 - - - 3,176,656 
 
 1867 - - - - - - 3,944,035 
 
 1868 - - 4,250,721
 
 44 THE GEOWTH OF TEADE. 
 
 EGYPT. 
 
 The position that Egypt occupies is essentially different 
 from that of Turkey, and is one of those cases where a series 
 of causes combines to produce a total result. There seems to 
 be little difference of opinion asto the fact that the Viceroy of 
 Egypt has exhibited and still exhibits great energy and con- 
 siderable ability in his government. He has also manifested a 
 clear perception of the value of an intimate alliance with 
 England and France ; and the result is everywhere apparent in 
 the general internal organisation of his kingdom, as well as in 
 his active endeavours to develope its trade. In this attempt 
 he has been aided by the planning and carrying out of our 
 overland route to India. The mere fact, that Egypt forms 
 the highway between ourselves and our dependency, with its 
 135 millions of people, is a tangible reason why our exports 
 to that country should grow. Egyptian commerce has also 
 been largely aided by another influence — that of the out- 
 break of the Civil War in America. For many years Egypt, 
 like Brazil, had furnished our markets with a moderate 
 quantity of cotton ; but the entire cessation of all supplies 
 from the Southern States, consequent on the war, forced our 
 manufacturers to look to other countries for that staple of 
 which they were thus suddenly deprived. Egypt answered 
 to the call, and furnished us with considerably increased 
 quantities, whilst, at the same time, the value of the cotton 
 itself rose with great rapidity, as the figures subjoined will 
 
 show : — 
 
 Cotton. — Value per cwt. 
 1660 .... 
 
 1861 .... 
 
 1862 .... 
 
 1863 .... 
 
 1864 .... 
 
 1865 .... 
 
 1866 .... 
 
 £3 15 
 
 6 
 
 4 4 
 
 9 
 
 7 1 
 
 4 
 
 10 11 
 
 8 
 
 12 15 
 
 3 
 
 8 16 
 
 1 
 
 8 14 
 
 3
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRxVDE. 45 
 
 This increase of wealth, the natural result of our existing 
 commercial arrangements, aided the development of our 
 export trade. 
 
 EGYPT. 
 
 1840 - - - - - - £79,063 
 
 1841 ------ 238,486 
 
 1842 - - - - " - - 221,003 
 
 1843 - - - - - - 246,565 
 
 1844 ------ 402,101 
 
 1845 - - - - - - 291,850 
 
 1846 - - - - - - 495,674 
 
 1847 ------ 538,308 
 
 1848 ------ 509,876 
 
 1849 ------ 638,411 
 
 1850 ------ 648,801 
 
 1851 - - - - - - 968,729 
 
 1852 ------ 955,701 
 
 1853 ------ 787,111 
 
 1854 - - Outbreak of War - - 1,253,353 
 
 1855 ------ 1,454,371 
 
 1856 ------ 1,587,682 
 
 1857 ------ 1,899,289 
 
 1858 ------ 1,985,829 
 
 1859 ------ 2,175,651 
 
 1860 ------ 2,479,737 
 
 1861 - - - - - - 2,278,848 
 
 1S62 - - Exhibition - - 2,405,982 
 
 1863 ------ 4,406,295 
 
 1864 ------ 6,051,680 
 
 1865 ------ 5,990,943 
 
 1866 ------ 7,556,185 
 
 1867 - - - - - 8,198,111 
 
 1868 ..--- 6,068,569
 
 46 THE GROWTH OF TKADE. 
 
 CHINA. 
 
 There Lave been two Chinese wars, the one in 1840 the 
 other in 1860. The influence of the first war was sup- 
 plemented by the opening of the port of Hong Kong, and 
 was manifested in the fact, that our exports within two years 
 reached the highest point they ever attained before the outbreak 
 of the Indian Mutiny. The second great impulse on onr 
 trade with China occurs in 1859, the year when Englrnd 
 and France were preparing their joint expedition ; and this 
 rise in our imports is to be accounted for by the fact that 
 goods were shipped from England for the purposes of, or in 
 connection with, the war itself, which took place in the 
 middle of the next year (1860). After the war was over 
 the same result followed as was apparent in our trade with 
 France after the Crimean War ; our exports sank slowly ; 
 not to the level they had occupied previously to the outbreak 
 of the war, but lower than they had been during the time the 
 actual influence of war was at work. From that point they 
 have since rebounded and have grown continuously to the 
 present time. 
 
 This expansion coincides with the time when the influence 
 of our second Exhibition came into play, and affords one more 
 illustration how causes blend one with the other. The 
 assumption, that our Exhibitions have influenced our past 
 trade, appears warranted, not only by the general thought that 
 underlies all such gatherings, but by the mode in which our 
 exports to particular countries have risen at these periods. 
 It is worthy also to note that the influence of our first 
 Exhibition manifested itself on the countries near home, 
 whilst our second Exhibition acted upon those that were scat- 
 tered throughout the more distant parts of the world, such 
 as China, Japan, Brazil, &c. 
 
 It may be said, that the growth of our trade with China 
 is due to the reduction of our duties on tea. It may be wise
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 47 
 
 CHINA. 
 
 1840 - - Outbreak of War - £.324,198 
 
 1841 - 862,570 
 
 1842 - Opening of Port of Hong Kong 969,381 
 
 1843 .--.-- 1,456,180 
 
 1844 ------ 2,305,617 
 
 1845 2,394,827 
 
 1846 - - - - - - 1,791,439 
 
 1847 ------ 1,503,969 
 
 1848 ------ 1,445,959 
 
 1849 ------ 1,537,109 
 
 1850 ------ 1,574,145 
 
 1851 ------ 2,161,268 
 
 1852 - - - - - - 2,503,599 
 
 1853 ------ 1,749,597 
 
 1854 ------ 1,000.716 
 
 1855 - 1,277,944 
 
 1856 2,216,123 
 
 1857 - - Indian Mutiny - 2,449,982 
 
 1858 ------ 2,876,417 
 
 1859 4,457,373 
 
 1860 - - Second China War - 5,318,636 
 
 1861 ------ 4,848,657 
 
 1862 - - - Exhibition - - 3.137,342 
 
 1863 ------ 3,889,927 
 
 1864 ------ 4,711,478 
 
 1865 ------ 5,152,293 
 
 1866 ------ 7,477091 
 
 1867 ------ 7,468,278 
 
 1868 - - - - - - 8,498,966 
 
 These returns include our exports to LTong* Kong.
 
 48 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 that this view of the case should be briefly inquired into. It is 
 curious, but none the less true, that the immediate effect of 
 our reduced duties, was not to create an immediately increased 
 demand. Our imports of tea are as follows, and the date of 
 reduced duties is marked with an asterisk : — 
 
 1853 - .... lbs.70,735,135 
 
 *1854 ------ 85,792,032 
 
 1855 - - - - - - 83,259,257 
 
 1856 ------ 86,200,414 
 
 1857 ------ 64,493,989 
 
 *1858 ------ 75,432,535 
 
 1859 ------ 75,077,451 
 
 1860 - - - - - - 88,946,532 
 
 1861 ------ 96,577,383 
 
 1862 ------ 114,787,361 
 
 1863 ------ 136,806,321 
 
 *1864 ------ 124,359,243 
 
 1865 ------ 121,271,219 
 
 *1866 ------ 139,610,044 
 
 1867 - - - - - - 128,026,807 
 
 It will be noticed, that in each case the year following 
 the reduction of the duties on tea, the imports are lower. 
 Any probable or reasonable explanation is difficult to give, 
 excepting that the demand for tea is largely dependent upon 
 influences broadly removed from the mere question of the 
 reduction of duty. The consumption of tea, as of all other 
 necessaries of life, is dependent upon two causes : first, 
 the gross increase of our population, and, second, the general 
 condition of the people. The causes that affect the condition 
 of the great mass of the people, will affect the totals of our 
 imports of the necessaries of life. When trade is very pros- 
 perous, and when, as a consequence, population increases 
 rapidly, our imports will rise in proportion, being stimulated 
 by the action of prosperity. When men are in full work and
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 49 
 
 at good wages, the question of extra duty on a pound of 
 tea does not produce any marked influence to stop its sale ; 
 but when poverty and distress fall upon them, when pauper- 
 ism rises rapidly, such influences affect the whole mode of 
 living, and definitely arrests the consumption of the neces- 
 saries of life. Viewed from this point, the variations in our 
 figures explain themselves ; looked at as a whole, the imports 
 of tea show a steady advance, the fluctuations up and down 
 being probably due to mercantile speculations and the varia- 
 tion of quantities held in bond. It would therefore appear, 
 from a review of all these circumstances, that the advance 
 in our exports to China must be considered as being depen- 
 dent upon causes altogether apart from the question of im- 
 position or removal of the duties upon the special produce of 
 that country. 
 
 The considerations that have now been advanced tend to 
 show how the influence of w T ar has acted upon the develop- 
 ment of our export trade to the various countries whose 
 returns have been subjected to examination. It will be 
 well before finally closing this portion of the question, to 
 recognise that the consideration of the action of any cause, 
 such as war, is accepted, by the gieat teachers of Political 
 Economy, as being judged quite apart from its moral 
 bearings. 
 
 No man of ordinary feeling will do otherwise than depre- 
 cate the existence of a state of war. Devastation, misery 
 and rapine have and ever will follow in its train. But 
 the consideration of the secondary causes that flow from, 
 though not contemplated by war, is a question that appears 
 at once legitimate and wise. What reason can there be 
 why we should hesitate to follow out the action of those 
 secondary causes, whose silent but beneficial influence tends 
 to further the progress of that great civilizer — Trade? In 
 such a sense, and in such a sense only, has war been 
 
 • E
 
 50 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 viewed in the relationship it bears to onr commerce. In 
 life all causes are more or less distinctly co-related, the 
 operation of to-day ramifies through a thousand channels, 
 and produces consequences on the distant future that were 
 never intended; thus, from despotism has sprung freedom, 
 and in the blood of our martyrs have been written the 
 articles of our faith. When viewed in this sense, the con- 
 sequences that flow from the action of war may be accepted 
 without shrinking, and may be regarded as being in harmony 
 with the great teachings of the past, which show us how 
 the wars of Imperial Rome laid the foundations for the 
 civilization of the world. 
 
 This digression seemed necessary to prevent miscon- 
 ception of the sense in which war was viewed. We will 
 now return to our last illustration, that of 
 
 INDIA. 
 
 Following the same course that has been adopted with 
 regard to the returns of other countries, we find that the 
 outbreak of the Mutiny produced an immediate effect upon 
 our exports; — they rose the same year more than one million. 
 In the next year they advanced more than five millions. 
 This increase was, on an average, maintained until the 
 Exhibition of 1862, when our exports again rose another 
 five millions; and that amount has been substantially 
 maintained from that time to the present. From 1840 
 to the outbreak of the Mutiny, a period of seventeen 
 years, our exports had advanced about 4^ millions. 
 Since that date, a period of twelve years, our exports 
 show a permanent advance of more than ten millions, and 
 this advance remains in full force, in the face of the 
 gigantic failures incidental to, and connected with, the Bank 
 of Bombay.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 51 
 
 INDIA. 
 
 1840 - - - - - £6,023,192 
 
 1841 ...... 5,595,000 
 
 1842 ...... 5,169,888 
 
 1843 - - - - - - 6,404,519 
 
 1844 ...... 7,695,666 
 
 1845 ...... 6,073,778 
 
 1846 - - - - - 6,434,456 
 
 1847 - - - - - - 5,470,105 
 
 1848 ..-.-. 5,077,247 
 
 1849 -.-... 6,803,274 
 
 1850 ...... 8,022,665 
 
 1851 ...... 7,806,596 
 
 1852 ...... 7,352,907 
 
 1853 - 7,324,147 
 
 1854 - - Russian War - - 9,127,556 
 
 1855 --.... 9,449,154 
 
 1856 ...... 10,546,190 
 
 1857 - - Indian Mutiny - - 11,666,714 
 
 1858 ------ 16,782,386 
 
 1859 --.... 19,844,920 
 
 1860 ------ 16,965,292 
 
 1861 16,411,756 
 
 1862 - - Exhibition ■ - 14,617,673 
 
 1863 - - - - - 20,002,241 
 
 1864 ------ 19,951,637 
 
 1865 --.-.. 18,260,413 
 
 1866 - - - - - - 20,009,490 
 
 1867 ---... 21,805,127 
 1868 21,211,343 
 
 E 2
 
 52 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 HANSE TOWNS. 
 
 Hamburg and Bremen are the entrepots of Europe, and 
 the returns that appear under this heading must be regarded 
 as representing a portion of the general trade that is distributed 
 throughout the whole of the Continent. Reference has before 
 been made to the growth in the appreciation of English 
 manufactures, induced partly by our status as a nation, partly 
 by the goods themselves and partly by association. The influ- 
 ence of these causes, blended into one, would manifest itself 
 in the increased trade through those ports which may be 
 accepted as partially representing the centres of distribution 
 for all Europe. By a coincidence the tariff of the Hanse 
 Towns was reduced in the year of our first Exhibition, so 
 that this cause must be joined to the others. We must also 
 note and make allowance for one other influence, which is 
 continuously on the increase, viz., the development of the 
 railway system throughout Europe. 
 
 It has justly been said that steam is the great civilizer, 
 and the railway system the great revolutionizer, of the world. 
 Not only are barriers broken down, time economized, and coun- 
 tries linked together that were previously widely separated, 
 but the teaching that springs from such causes is ever present. 
 It brings before men, in phases that cannot be blotted out, the 
 constant growth of thought and the constant stir of enter- 
 prise, and, despite the difference of names, makes Europe one 
 great whole. The energy and force, inseparable from all railway 
 life, must tend to quicken the latent activities of the people. 
 It will be at once obvious, that the mere increase of facilities 
 must exercise a large influence on the various countries, by 
 bringing them into more perfect union, and thus enabling 
 commerce to be more rapidly carried on. The action of these 
 causes, when combined, afford a sufficient explanation of the 
 development of our trade through the Hanse Towns.
 
 THE GROWTH OP TRADE. 
 
 53 
 
 HANSE TOWNS. 
 
 1840 
 
 1841 
 
 1842 
 
 1843 
 
 1844 
 
 1845 
 
 1846 
 
 1847 
 
 1848 
 
 1849 
 
 1850 
 
 1851 
 
 1852 
 
 1853 
 
 1854 
 
 1855 
 
 1856 
 
 1857 
 
 1858 
 
 1859 
 
 1860 
 
 1861 
 
 1862 
 
 1863 
 
 1864 
 
 1865 
 
 1866 
 
 1867 
 
 1868 
 
 03 ZJ 
 
 <= > 
 
 f- o 
 
 o ,2 
 
 f~ — , 
 
 © S3 
 
 »3 — r 
 
 h a 
 
 ~ 
 
 Exhibition 
 
 Exhibition 
 Limited Liability 
 
 £5,408,499 
 
 5,654,033 
 
 6,202,700 
 
 6,168.038 
 
 6,151,528 
 
 6,517,796 
 
 6,326,210 
 
 6,007,366 
 
 4,669,259 
 
 5,386,246 
 
 6,755,545 
 
 6,920,078 
 
 6,872,753 
 
 7,093,314 
 
 7,413,715 
 
 8,350,228 
 
 10,134,813 
 
 9,595,962 
 
 9,031,877 
 
 9,178,399 
 
 10,364,237 
 
 9,298,463 
 
 9.740,336 
 
 10,806,092 
 
 13,418,826 
 
 15,116,658 
 
 13,555,988 
 
 17,229,251 
 
 19,320,647
 
 54 THE GEOWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 HOLLAND. 
 
 "In the case of the Dutch Tariff, the liberal system was 
 introduced in 1850. Further reductions were made in the 
 years 1854 and 1862." Our trading with Holland had 
 shown no development from 1840 to 1851 ; over the whole 
 of these years we have slight fluctuations, but nothing more. 
 The years 1841, 1842, 1843, and 1846 all show larger 
 amounts of exports than the remainder of the years, in- 
 cluding that of 1851. We may therefore fairly assume that 
 the trade with Holland was absolutely stationary, until the 
 new influences of the Exhibition and the reduction of its own 
 tariff came into play. It seems only fair to consider these two 
 causes as acting in unison. For instance, the reform of the 
 Dutch Tariff took place in 1850, yet the next year shows 
 no advance ; the returns for the two years being almost 
 identical in amount, whilst the two years that follow the Ex- 
 hibition show an advance of nearly one million. The truth 
 seems to be, that these two causes form the real explanation. 
 Attention has more than once been drawn to the growth 
 of our export trade in connection with the Limited Liability 
 Act, and illustrations of its influence through the years 
 1864, 1865, and 1866, appear in the returns of Holland, 
 France, Egypt, Hanse Towns, Belgium, and United States, 
 and can also be traced, although less definitely, through a 
 large proportion of our dependencies. The influence of the 
 speculative mania, incidental to the years referred to, made 
 itself felt, not only in company gambling, but through the 
 more direct avenues of legitimate trading : in the one case 
 dying out with the mania that brought it into existence, and, 
 in the other case, founding new channels of commerce that 
 have still retained their force.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 55 
 
 HOLLAND. 
 
 1840 ------ £3,416,190 
 
 1841 ------ 3,610,877 
 
 1842 ------ 3,573,362 
 
 1843 ------ 3,564,720 
 
 1844 - - ... 3,131,970 
 
 1845 ------ 3,439,035 
 
 1846 ------ 3,576,469 
 
 1847 ------ 3,017,423 
 
 1848 ------ 2,823,258 
 
 1849 - - - - - - 3,499,937 
 
 1850 - - - - - - 3,542,632 
 
 1851 - - Exhibition - - 3,542,673 
 
 1852 ------ 4,109,976 
 
 1853 ------ 4,452,955 
 
 1854 4,573,034 
 
 1855 ------ 4,558,210 
 
 1856 ------ 5,728,253 
 
 1857 - - - - - - 6,384,394 
 
 1858 ------ 5,473,312 
 
 1859 ------ 5,375,468 
 
 1860 ------ 6,114,862 
 
 1861 ------ 6.434,919 
 
 1862 - - Exhibition - 6,046,242 
 
 1863 - - - - - - 6,324,696 
 
 1864 - - Limited Liability 6,884,937 
 
 1865 --..-. 8,137,753 
 
 1866 ------ 8,999,713 
 
 1867 - - - - - - 9,422,742 
 
 1868 ------ 10,392,253
 
 56 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 BELGIUM. 
 
 1840 ------ £880,286 
 
 1841 ------ 1,066.040 
 
 1842 - - - - - - 1,999,490 
 
 1843 ------ 984,650 
 
 1844 1,471,251 
 
 1845 1,479,058 
 
 1846 ------ 1,158,034 
 
 1847 ------ 1,059,456 
 
 1848 ------ 823,968 
 
 1849 ------ 1,457,584 
 
 1850 ------ 1,136,237 
 
 1851 ------ 984,501 
 
 1852 - - - - 1,076,499 
 
 1853 - - - - - 1,371,817 
 
 1854 - - - - 1,406,932 
 
 1855 --- - - 1,707,693 
 
 1856 - - - . . 1,689,975 
 
 1857 ------ 1,727,204 
 
 1858 ------ 1,815,257 
 
 1859 --- - 1,479,270 
 
 1860 ------ 1,610,144 
 
 1861 ----- 1,925,852 
 
 1862 - - Exhibition - 1,828,622 
 
 1863 ------ 2,107,332 
 
 1864 - - Limited Liability - - 2,301,291 
 
 1865 ------ 2,935,833 
 
 1866 ------ 2,861,665 
 
 1867 ------ 2,816,481 
 
 1868 ------ 3,149,709 
 
 The returns of Belgium show no positive increase until 
 the Exhibition year, 18G2, and from that date they have 
 continuously advanced.
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 57 
 
 Having now so far analyzed the returns of the various 
 countries in connection with which our exports have most 
 distinctly grown, and which, when taken as a total, may be 
 said to represent the gross amount of our increased returns, 
 it becomes necessary to take the gross yearly totals, and see 
 how far the increase — the increase manifested by them — coin- 
 cides with the existence of the causes thus laid down. 
 
 It will be necessary to refer to the fact that from 1840 to 
 1849 there is no marked growth of trade. There is large 
 variation, but no defined increase. But it may be as well to 
 notice, that a small increase year by year may be allowed as 
 the mere result of the growth of population all over the 
 world. For the same reasons that we are necessitated, by 
 the increase of our population, to import continuously increas- 
 ing quantities of corn to feed our people, so will the centres of 
 our commerce increase in their demands, through the increase 
 of the populations by which they are surrounded and which 
 they supply. This may be taken as a cause that is always in 
 operation ; and which will, in all probability, act with greater 
 force year by year. But such an influence will not produce 
 sudden bounds of trade, similar to those which our returns con- 
 tinually show ; so that, whilst admitting the cause, as being at 
 once distinct and permanent, it does not form one of that 
 group which has reared our past commercial success. 
 
 Passing from the consideration of this influence, we have 
 those special causes that manifest themselves, and which have 
 been already referred to, in examining the returns of individual 
 countries. But we have yet to consider how far their value 
 is manifested when the totals of our commerce are passed in 
 review. In looking over our exports, certain indications mani" 
 fest themselves very clearly. Our trade from 1840 shows no 
 marked advance, until the influence of the gold discoveries of 
 Australia and California, combined with the mass emigration 
 of Ireland, produced their effect. The next influence that
 
 58 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 TOTALS OF OUK EXPORTS,— 1840 to 1868. 
 
 1840 - - - - - - £51,406,430 
 
 1841 ------ 51,634,623 
 
 1842 ------ 47,381,023 
 
 1843 - - - - - - 52,279,709 
 
 1844 ------ 58,584,292 
 
 1845 ------ 60,111,082 
 
 1846 ------ 57,786,876 
 
 1847 - Discovery of Gold in California 58,842,377 
 
 1848 - - Mass Emigration - 52,849,445 
 
 1849 - - - - - - 63,596,025 
 
 1850 ------ 71,367,885 
 
 1851 - - First Exhibition - 74,448,722 
 
 1852 .-.---- 78,076,854 
 
 1853 ------ 98,933,781 
 
 1854 - - Outbreak of Crimean War - 97,184,726 
 
 1855 ------ 95,688,085 
 
 1856 - - Peace with Russia - 115,826,948 
 
 1857 - - Indian Mutiny - 122,066,107 
 
 1858 ------ 116,608,756 
 
 1859 ------ 130,411,529 
 
 1860 ------ 135,891,227 
 
 1861 ------ 125,102,814 
 
 1862 - - Second Exhibition - 123,992,264 
 
 1863 ------ 146,602,342 
 
 1864 - - Limited Liability Act - 160,449,053 
 
 1865 ------ 165,835,725 
 
 1866 - - Financial Panic - 188,917,536 
 
 1867 ------ 180,961,923 
 
 1868 - - - - - - 179,463,644
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 59 
 
 came into play was that of our Great Exhibition, assisted also 
 by the reduction of tariffs in different parts of Europe. These 
 were again followed by the outbreak of the Crimean 
 war, and, on the incoming of peace, our export trade 
 again rose through the influences established in France, 
 Italy, Turkey, and Russia by the war itself. Our Indian 
 mutiny once more taxed our energies, and the greatest 
 dependency in the world passed from under the sway of a 
 private company, to be ruled as an integral portion of our 
 Great Empire. The steps deemed necessary to retain our 
 grasp on India, in case of a second revolt, found its expres- 
 sion in the development of the railway system, and the larger 
 infusion of English life into the army — these causes again 
 combined to raise our export trade. With but little variation, 
 our trade remained stationary for six years ; and when it 
 again bounded, the cause was apparent in the Exhibition of 
 1862, aided, as it was, a year or two later by the gigantic 
 creation of fictitious capital ; and, since that bubble has col- 
 lapsed, our trade has once more ceased to grow. 
 
 No reference has been made to that energy of character, 
 which has everywhere developed our commerce, and which 
 has made us the traders of the world ; such reference was 
 not necessary, as the question before us was, What were 
 the special causes that had produced the rapid growth of our 
 export trade ? For the same reason no reference has been 
 made to the capacity for trading that each nation may 
 possess. The power to purchase must be assumed as an 
 existing fact before any trade can be carried on ; and so far as 
 the government of states develops or retards the internal life 
 of a country, it was foreign to the purpose now in view to 
 investigate the question : but some illustrations bearing upon 
 this matter are pointed out in consideration of the future 
 influences of India. 
 
 We have now arrived at a point where it will be well to
 
 60 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 look over the principles enumerated, and see how far they are 
 trustworthy. The conditions connected with trade have been 
 traced through three phases. First, on the broad principle 
 that must underlie all trade — the simple principle of know- 
 ledge ; knowledge of goods themselves, knowledge of the 
 people who sell them, and the gradual advance of civilization 
 and its associate, the railway system. In the second place 
 the individual action of special causes such as War, Exhibi- 
 tions, Emigration, and Capital have been traced through 
 those countries' returns, which more or less clearly represent 
 the bulk of our increased trade. And in the third place, the 
 totals of our exports have been viewed as totals ; to see how 
 far they correspond with the principles laid down. The 
 answers in each case appear to be the same : and the results 
 seem to be connected as cause and effect. 
 
 GENERAL STATISTICAL SUMMARY. 
 
 1840 1868 
 
 France - £2,378,149 - £12,633,721 
 
 Italy - - ■ 1,560,338 - 4,980,210 
 
 Egypt - - - 79,063 - 6,068,569 
 
 Turkey - 1,164,386 - 8,137,686 
 
 Eussia - - 1,602,742 - - 4,260,721 
 
 China - - - 524,198 - - 8,498,966 
 
 India - - - 6,023,192 - - 21,211,343 
 
 Australia - - 2,051,625 - - 12,071,435 
 
 United States - 5,238,020 - - 21,410,184 
 
 Holland - - - 3,416,190 - 10,392,253 
 
 Hanse Town - 5,408,499 - 19,320,647 
 
 Belgium - - 880,286 - - 3,149,769 
 
 Japan ... — - 1,106,069 
 
 68 other Countries and 
 
 Possessions - 21,034,742 - - 46,222,071 
 
 Total Exports - £51,406,430 £179,463,644
 
 THE GROWTH OF TRADE. 
 
 61 
 
 The total of our export returns appear under about 82 
 headings, of that number the above 14 have been selected as 
 representing not only the most important, but the most 
 characteristic, of our customers ; the remaining 68, which are 
 enumerated in the Board of Trade returns, are included here 
 under the general heading, " Other Countries and Possessions." 
 The effect of this arrangement is largely to increase the special 
 amount under the heading, although it still remains relatively 
 small ; the variation it shows between 1840 and 1868 having 
 been equalled by the amount of variation exhibited by the 
 United States at different years during the same period. In 
 order that this may appear on the surface, the figures are 
 subjoined to show the relative differences. 
 
 Amount of Exports to 
 68 Countries and Possessions. 
 
 1868 
 1840 
 
 46,222,071 
 21,034,742 
 
 Difference- 25.187,329 
 
 Amount of Exports to 
 the United States of .America. 
 
 1866 - 
 
 1842 - 
 
 Difference - 
 
 28,499,514 
 3,528,407 
 
 24,971,107
 
 62 
 
 CHAPTER III. 
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 It has been wisely said, that the value we derive from the 
 past is the teaching it yields for the future ; and therefore 
 the sketch of the causes that have developed our trade will 
 be of value only if they enable us to decipher the probabilities 
 that surround our trade in the future. The questions that 
 everywhere surround us, and press with an increasing force, 
 as day follows day and week follows week, is, Whither are 
 we drifting ? How comes it that the natural reaction has not 
 yet come ? In the past all other panics righted themselves 
 rapidly, why not this one? Such are the questions that 
 are everywhere uttered, until they become wearisome by 
 their very sameness. The assumption that runs throughout 
 them all, is, that there is a natural and inevitable power in 
 trade to right itself. The warnings that speak through our 
 commercial statistics from 1815 to 1840 are either unknown 
 or ignored. The terrible trials incidental to long continued 
 commercial stagnation, which made themselves felt in the 
 past, are forgotten ; and the only grave warnings that come 
 to the surface are those daily increasing bankruptcies, which 
 tell of slackened trade and increased competition. It will be 
 necessary, for our purpose, that we keep close to our ques- 
 tion, and watch how the causes of the Growth of Trade, when 
 carefully traced out, can help us to elucidate the probable 
 conditions of our future. 
 
 If the reasoning advanced in the last chapter be correct, 
 the rapid growth of our past trade may be reduced to the 
 following causes : —
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 63 
 
 First. — The growth of population and civilization all over 
 the world. 
 
 Second. — The influence of emigration in connection with 
 the discoveries of gold. 
 
 Third. — International Exhibitions. 
 
 Fourth. — The action of war as developing new relations 
 with other countries. 
 
 Fifth. — The opening of new ports of trade, and the 
 reduction of import duties. 
 
 Sixth. — The influence of capital. 
 
 We have now to consider which of the causes will con- 
 tinue in force without assistance ; which of them we can 
 stimulate; and which of them are likely to cease. It 
 will also be necessary to bring into view the causes that 
 operate against trade generally and our own trade in par- 
 ticular ; such, for instance, as high tariffs and increased 
 competition ; and, when these are all fairly before us, we 
 shall have a clear view of the question we have to decide. 
 
 With reference to the first cause, it may be fairly assumed 
 that it will continue. The inhabitants of the world are ever on 
 the increase and, as our commerce is world-wide, it must, from 
 this one cause, be ever on the growth. We may also add to 
 this, as an element inalienable from it, the gradual advance 
 of civilization and education, both of which act as stimulants 
 to trade, through the influence of increased knowledge and 
 increased requirements ; necessarily including in these the 
 continuous development of the railway system, and its adjunct, 
 the telegraph. 
 
 With reference to emigration, the whole tendency of events 
 is to foster its increase. Not only has the desire to emigrate 
 become very widely spread, but it is rapidly growing, and 
 will be still further quickened by the gradual increase of 
 labour in proportion to work. The totals of our emigration 
 returns show a decrease since 1863, arising, no doubt, from
 
 64 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 the increased demand for labour at home, that characterised 
 the years 1864, 1865, and 1866 ; but, as that demand has 
 ceased, and as we have no probability of its resuscitation, 
 the mere pressure, that will be exercised by the agency of 
 want, will necessarily develope emigration. The capacity that 
 this power possesses to aid our future trade is more specially 
 detailed in the chapter headed " Emigration." 
 
 With reference to future Exhibitions, it may be said, 
 that the more clearly the results are appreciated, the greater 
 will be the care used to bring them into action, and to 
 make them worthy of the purpose for which they were 
 originally designed. That they have produced a large exten- 
 sion of our trade in the past seems beyond doubt, and that 
 they possess an equal capacity for its development in the 
 future, seems equalty clear; the one question being, in what 
 shape and under what circumstances they shall be called 
 into action. With proper limitations there seems every 
 reason to believe that we may anticipate from this cause 
 a powerful influence in the development of our future trade. 
 It will be obvious that the success of any Exhibition is more 
 or less dependent on the mode in which it is carried through; 
 if either from want of care, want of interest, or want of 
 judgment, it be allowed to sink to the level of a private 
 speculation, the power it would exercise over other countries 
 would be proportionably reduced ; if, on the other hand, the 
 might of our national position be brought to bear, the success 
 that would follow may be assumed as accomplished. 
 
 With regard to wars, they may be considered as almost 
 things of the past : the power they have exercised has 
 been specified, but their action in the future must be con- 
 sidered as very dubious : first, because the influence they 
 possessed of causing nations to know one another is being 
 rapidly superseded by other and more quiet means ; and, 
 secondly, because the whole weight of our influence and
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 65 
 
 position is opposed to their recurrence ; we having proclaimed 
 to the world that our policy is a policy of peace. 
 
 With respect to the probability of the opening of new 
 free ports, it must bo remembered that the condition of 
 Japan was entirely exceptional, and the circumstances 
 that surrounded it will not probably occur again. The 
 nearest approach to it is that of China ; but the modifica- 
 tions introduced into our relations with that country since 
 the war of 1860, leads to the belief that a more intimate 
 commercial union may be anticipated between that country 
 and our own. This tendency will be aided by the great emi- 
 gration that has already made itself felt in Australia, and 
 which is being: organised for the Southern States of America. 
 The results inseparable from a knowledge will follow, and 
 those who return to China will carry with them associations 
 and ideas that will fructify in the common interests of 
 us all. Apart from the question of China, the pretension 
 of isolation, so far as a country is concerned, can scarcely be 
 said to exist. "We cannot, therefore, anticipate any aid in 
 our commercial future similar to that given to us, by Japan 
 and the opening of its ports. 
 
 "With respect to the reduction of tariffs, the tendency in 
 Europe is evidently to bargaining, something after the 
 manner of the Cobden Treaty, rather than the enunciation 
 of Free Trade doctrines such as we have made. Whilst 
 referring to this question, it may be considered whether 
 it is not very questionable policy for us, in the present 
 state of our labour market, to largely reduce our own. 
 There is a time for everything ; and the time for modi- 
 fying our import duties does not appear to be peculiarly 
 that of the present. Amongst a large section of our artisan 
 class, there is a feeling that the reduction of any import duty 
 exposes some particular trade to an increased competition — 
 an opinion that no one who has watched the action of the 
 
 F
 
 66 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 Cobden Treaty can for one moment doubt to be correct. It 
 therefore becomes a grave question, whether it be wise, in 
 the face of our present manufacturing" difficulties, to make 
 any change. The total results of the Cobden Treaty, when 
 considered by its action on our trading population, are not 
 of such a character as to justify us in proceeding further 
 without very careful scrutiny. 
 
 We have yet to weigh one point which will very 
 largely affect our export trade : and that is, the present 
 course of policy pursued by the United States of America. 
 The question is, whether it is probable that the United 
 States will reduce or change their tariff? Our imports at 
 the present moment are so heavily taxed as to natu- 
 rally check our trade ; and, considering the peculiar ties 
 of our relationship, there is probably no one cause that 
 would so inimediately increase our export trade as the 
 removal of import duties from our goods entering America, 
 It is well, therefore, to see what probability exists that the 
 duties will be reduced or repealed. 
 
 It has been asserted, that the conditions that surround the 
 customs of America are analagous to those that surrounded 
 our own customs immediately preceding the change in our 
 tariff ; it is therefore considered probable that the duties will 
 immediately be reduced. In the next place it is asserted, 
 that " Leaguers in New York and Boston are actively 
 "disseminating the principles of Free Trade; and it cannot 
 " be doubted by any, one who is acquainted with the facts, 
 "that, as soon as the task of re-construction is completed, 
 " Free Trade will be the great question in the United 
 " States." This may be so, and the result may be in 
 accordance with the principles, but the reasoning does not 
 appear to be satisfactory. 
 
 The assumption, that there is any tangible ground of 
 comparison between the existing conditions of England and
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 67 
 
 those of the United States, is so far removed from the 
 ordinary laws of common sense, that it seems scarcely to 
 require answering, England is a country so over populated, 
 that she is absolutely dependent upon foreign trade to find 
 food for a large portion of her people. America is a 
 country where a great expanse of territory is still virgin 
 soil, and which would, under proper cultivation, feed an 
 almost indefinite population. England was driven to the 
 revision of her tariff to find work and food for her people. 
 America, embracing as she does every condition of climate, 
 and possessing every necessary mineral, could shut herself 
 off from the entire world and still grow as a great nation. 
 What point of comparison can there be, when the funda- 
 mental conditions of existence are so utterly removed the 
 one from the other? 
 
 But there are also other questions, quite apart from this 
 point of view, which it will be wise for us to keep in mind. 
 The policy laid down by the United States is, that her tariff 
 affords the readiest means of collecting a revenue ; and, look- 
 ing at the enormous expanse of territory and the obvious 
 difficulties of collection incidental to remote districts, there 
 would appear some reasons for the maintenance of such an 
 idea. In this view they will also be supported by the whole 
 of their manufacturers, whose interests are identical with its 
 continuance ; and, considering the influence that manu- 
 facturers have exercised on this side of the water, it does not 
 appear probable that any change will take place in opposition 
 to their wishes. 
 
 In the Times of Nov. 23, 1869, is the following, apparently 
 from one who, whilst a Free Trader, yet recognises the difficul- 
 ties by which the question is surrounded. " Occasionally the 
 " Free Traders invade Philadelphia, the citadel of Protection, 
 " and although they have not yet mustered strength enough 
 " to warrant a public meeting, they placard the blank walls 
 
 f2
 
 68 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 " and fences with huge posters, disseminating* the heretical 
 " doctrines. The Protectionists on their side are not idle. 
 " Their journals defend the principle, and on the heels of the 
 " Detroit Free Trade meeting, they held another in that 
 " city, advocating* Protection, challenging* their opponents to 
 " a discussion, and forming a Protectionist Society. They 
 " have the advantage of wealth, numbers, and the control 
 
 " of the dominant party Both sides, therefore, 
 
 "are organising their forces for the struggle that is to begin 
 " in the next session of Congress, but which will never be 
 " settled until the re-admission of all the Southern members 
 " and the strengthening of the West by the increase of its 
 " members consequent upon the new apportionment, folio w- 
 " ing the census of 1870, give the Free Traders the prepon- 
 " derance of numbers and a partial victory. The first 
 " congressional battle will be fought upon the question 
 " whether the American shipbuilders are to be relieved from 
 " the depression on their trade caused by the high tariff 
 " of imported shipbuilding materials. In this no doubt the 
 " Protectionists will ultimately be beaten ; but the interests 
 " of the different sections of the country are so diverse that it 
 " is scarcely possible for the Free Traders to gain a complete 
 " victory. The tariffs will never be any higher, but it will 
 " be some time before any material reduction can be secured, 
 " the present Congress being thoroughly Protectionist. 
 
 " Bills increasing the tariff, according to intelligence 
 "from "Washington, are prepared there for introduction into 
 " the House as soon as the session begins, although their suc- 
 " cessful passage, after the fate attending similar measures at 
 " the last two sessions would seem almost hopeless. The wool 
 " interest, the cotton manufacturing interest, the iron and 
 " steel interest are all making loud lamentations about ruined 
 " trade and successful foreign competition, in order to raise 
 " a popular sentiment in favour of a further screwing up of
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. C9 
 
 *' the duties on these articles." ... In the same letter, 
 when referring to the opinions held by the President, he adds 
 the following: "Mr. Kelly says that the President showed 
 " that he had been studying the subject, and spoke particu- 
 " larly against abolishing the duty on bituminous coal, as 
 " such a step would take from the revenue a large amount 
 "annually. . . . Mr. Kelly then went on to explain 
 " his views on the tariff, recommending as the best plan to 
 " put all articles of raw materials which America does not 
 " produce on the free list, and to reduce the duties on articles 
 " manufactured from raw mateiials which do not come into 
 "competition with American productions; while the duties 
 " should be advanced on all imported articles which can be 
 " produced and manufactured in this country. With these 
 "ideas Mr. Kelly says the President expressed concurrence, 
 " and said he thought such a plan would simplify the tariff, 
 " and afford the kind of protection needed to foster and 
 " encourage home industry." 
 
 It is also well that we should have before our minds the 
 opinions enunciated by Adam Smith, who, when speaking of 
 Protection, says ("Wealth of Isations," Vol. II., pages 
 176 — 177) : — " By restraining, either by high duties, or by 
 " absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from 
 " foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly 
 " of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic 
 "industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition 
 " of importing either live cattle or salt provisions from foreign 
 " countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the 
 " monopoly of the home-market for butchers'-meat. The high 
 " duties upon the importation of corn, which in times of 
 " moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advan- 
 " tage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of 
 " the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to 
 " the woollen manufacturers. The silk manufacture, though
 
 70 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 " altogether employed upon foreign materials, has lately 
 " obtained the same advantage. The linen manufacture has ' 
 " not yet obtained it, but is making great strides towards it. 
 " Many other sorts of manufactures have, in the same manner, 
 " obtained in Great Britain, either altogether, or very nearly 
 " a monopoly amongst their countrymen. The variety of 
 " goods of which the importation into Great Britian is pro- 
 " hibited, either absolutely, or under certain circumstances, 
 " greatly exceeds what can easily be suspected by those who 
 " who are not well acquainted with the laws of the customs. 
 " That this monopoly of the home -market frequently gives 
 " great encouragement to that particular species of industry 
 " which enjoys it, and frequently turns towards that employ- 
 "ment a greater share of both the labour and stock of the 
 " society than would otherwise have gone to it, cannot be 
 " doubted. But whether it tends either to increase the general 
 " industry of the society, or to give it the most advantageous 
 " direction, is not, perhaps, altogether so evident." 
 
 And although Adam Smith goes on to show that, as a 
 broad principle, protection is unwise, yet, for the immediate 
 purpose for which protection is now used by the Americans, 
 the authority of the great founder of political economy can 
 be adduced in support of the present tariff. 
 
 Beyond both these reasons, there is one that will 
 weigh both long and heavily with the leading minds in 
 the United States, viz. : — the large revenue yielded by the 
 present tariff and power it thus affords the Government to 
 reduce the war debt. There is no doubt that the most 
 influential citizens of America, ardently desire to pay off 
 their debt, and they will cling with great tenacity to any 
 system, short of direct taxation, that will aid them to carry 
 such a desire into effect. To many minds it is a question 
 whether direct taxation could permanently maintain itself 
 in America; and whilst any system exists that is at once
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 71 
 
 productive and less onerous, there seems little reason to 
 believe that a change will take place. The same remarks 
 will apply, with modifications, to the great majority of 
 the States of Europe, for throughout the whole of the 
 issue now raised, this broad question runs — if the import 
 duties now levied by the various countries of Europe were 
 removed, by what means could a revenue be produced 
 at once so certain and so little felt ? and if so — why 
 should they reduce their import duties? It is very neces- 
 sary that we should endeavour to change the habits of 
 thought in which most of us live, so as to take a 
 fair view of the subject from a foreign stand point. 
 We are so habituated to regard all these matters from 
 the influence they have upon ourselves, as to ignore 
 the fact, that the conditions, which are pressing neces- 
 sities to us, may be a matter of small importance to 
 other countries. "With us the question is, how can our 
 commerce be made to grow ? How can we improve trade ? 
 How can we make other countries do that, which, whilst 
 it is good, for them, is also specially important to us? 
 We say this, so much and so often, that there is ever a 
 tendency on our part to become one-sided in our mode of 
 viewing these questions. It would be difficult to show that 
 the changes of tariffs suggested, by many political econo- 
 mists are compatible with a ready equalisation of tax- 
 ation in those places. Whilst this is the case, and we 
 have keen discussions in our own land, as to the value of 
 free trade itself, it is unreasonable to expect that foreign 
 countries will adopt the policy which is still so vigor- 
 ously challenged, where its teachings have been the most 
 unflinchingly carried out ; we must therefore come to the 
 conclusion, that any modification of existing tariffs, suffi- 
 ciently large to stimulate trade vigorously, must either be 
 abandoned altogether or looked upon as very improbable.
 
 72 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 With reference to any large action of Capital in the imme- 
 diate future, it would appear that this also must be regarded 
 as dubious. The rude shock to which all confidence has been 
 subjected, combined with the glaring effrontery and utterly 
 reckless swindling, developed in connection with our recent 
 monetary collapse, is both too strong and too painful a lesson 
 to be readily forgotten. Capitalists will prefer looking at 
 their money to losing it ; and they will either invest it in 
 securities that are unequivocally sound, or allow their 
 money to lie idle. It remains yet to be seen how long 
 such a course is possble, but it is so at present, and will in 
 all probability remain so for some time to come. 
 
 We have now passed over the various causes that have 
 developed our trade in the past ; and have found that 
 amongst them those appear probable to aid us in the 
 future, are : — the natural growth of population ; the in- 
 fluence of emigration ; and the general rise of civilization 
 all over the world. All these causes are g-eneral causes, 
 the operations of which, whilst very definite, will yet be 
 very moderate, and we may therefore look forward, in the 
 future under existing circumstances, to a very regular, 
 but very gradual increase of our trade : — an increase which, 
 at the largest calculation, could not be presumed to be in any 
 sense-, equal to the necessities of our increasing population. 
 We have yet to consider the counteracting influence of com- 
 petition. 
 
 We have hitherto concentrated our attention on the 
 causes that will develope our trade; but, to arrive at an 
 accurate estimate, it will be necessary to view closely one 
 cause, that threatens to operate with great force in the 
 contrary direction, and that force is Competition. To say, 
 that the greater portion of Europe is entering into direct 
 competition with our leading manufacturers, is to assert that 
 which is generally accepted as an established fact ; but, in
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 73 
 
 order to place the question in a clearer light, it -will be better 
 for us to take one or two distinct trades and follow them 
 through the various influences that are at present acting- upon 
 them; for that purpose, and because they are our leading- 
 manufactures, Cotton and Iron have been selected. 
 
 So far as the mere quantities go, our cotton trade shews 
 no material change, what we were doing in 1866 we are 
 doing to-day ; we hold our position, and no more. But 
 the signs of increased competition are everywhere around 
 us. It is asserted that Belgium cotton goods are being sold 
 in the Manchester markets. It is undoubted that the cotton 
 goods manufactured by Germany, France and Switzerland, 
 are also imported into our country and that the imports are on 
 the increase. 
 
 The figures being 1866 - 1,130,931 
 
 1867 - 1,185,187 
 
 1868 - 1,285,766 
 
 The increase as shown by these figures is not large, but it 
 would appear to be definite. The totals here given would 
 be of small moment except as indicating the capacity of 
 foreign countries to compete successfully with ourselves. 
 Beyond these, we have to remember that America is at the 
 present time entering fairly into the race. It was lately 
 announced that in one state alone, that of Tennessee, twenty- 
 three mills had been erected , and it will be seen from the 
 returns that the amount of cotton reserved for America's 
 own manufacturers is continuously on the increase. Be- 
 yond this, the whole condition of American society would 
 appear to point to a great growth of their cotton trade. The 
 influence of her import duties will necessarily stimulate her 
 home trade, and the natural advantages of climate, soil and 
 position, all point the same way. If we add to these, the 
 development of her railway system, the infusion of Northern 
 blood into the Southern States, the immigration of the Chinese
 
 71 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 coolies, who are at once steady, patient, and tractable, we 
 have combined a series of causes that may at anytime pro- 
 duce a formidable and permanent rivalry. It is difficult to 
 see why America should not eventually lead in the cotton 
 trade ; cotton is not only naturalized to her soil, but that 
 which is produced is unquestionably the best in the world. 
 She has machines equal or superior to our own, and the 
 skill that has made our manufactures famous are leaving* 
 our shores by multitudes to find a new home there. If, 
 then, she has material, skill and machinery, what are the 
 reasons that should prevent her out-rivalling ourselves ? 
 
 The circumstances connected with European competition 
 are also significant. In Dr. Ure's well known work on cotton 
 manufactures, reference is made to various Continental states, 
 the particulars of which are here given. 
 
 A comparative view, given by Messrs. Rossingh and 
 Wumray, of the importance of cotton manufactures in 
 several different countries two or three years since, estimated 
 the number of spindles working : 
 
 In Switzerland, at - - - 1,250,000 
 
 In Austria, at 1,500,000 
 
 In France, at - - 0. '250,000 
 
 In England, at - - 21,000,000 
 
 These numbers, hcwever, are scarcely an index of the state of 
 the cotton works in those countries at the present date. 
 
 Since 1S45, Swirzerland is stated officially to have quite 
 superseded, in the markets of Germany and Austria, the 
 yams of Great Britain. In 1S30, that Republic had in 
 operation 400,000 spindles; in 1840, 750,000; in 1850, 
 050,000; and in 1860 about 1/250,000, the number having 
 more than trebled in thirty years, 
 
 Before the breaking out of the late war, the manufacture 
 of cotton in the Russian Empire was progressing with extra-
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 75 
 
 ordinary activity. The number of Bpindles exceeded 350,000, 
 producing- annually upwards of 10,800,000 lb. of cotton yarn. 
 The barter trade with the Chinese at Kiachta stimulates this 
 branch of manufacutres in Russia, as the article of cotton 
 velvets constitutes the leading staple of exchange at that 
 point for the teas and other merchandise of China. Informer 
 years this article was supplied almost exclusively by Great 
 Britain, but the Chinese prefer the Eussian manufacture, and 
 hence the steady progress of that branch of industry. 
 
 The cotton manufacture is rapidly increasing- in Russia. 
 It is scarcely more than thirty years since the first spinning* 
 mill was erected, and now it has 350,000 spindles in full 
 activity, which produce more than 300,000 poods of yarn 
 (10,800,000 lbs.). 
 
 The amount of cotton imported into Belgium in 185.5, 
 was of the value of 13,500,000 francs, and in 1856 there was 
 an increased import of about 2,500,000 kilogrammes over the 
 preceding years. The export of mixed cotton and woollen 
 and cotton and linen goods has tripled in the last ten years, 
 and Belgium now exports to, and contends successfully in the 
 markets of North and South America with the great manu- 
 facturing countries. 
 
 The illustrations here given all point one way ; and with 
 the teachings derived at once from America, France, Belgium, 
 Germany, and Switzerland, they seem to bear out the force of 
 that reasoning which asserts that the principle of competition 
 in our cotton manufactures is rapidly growing, and it will 
 require all our skill, care, and attention to hold our own in 
 the future. "We are suffering from a too rapid success ; the 
 very grandeur of the fortunes realised in Manchester and else- 
 where has drawn the attention of manufacturers all over the 
 world to the philosopher's stone of cotton-spinning ; and the 
 result is, not only have we over-built ourselves, but other 
 nations have given distinct evidences of their intention of con-
 
 76 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 
 
 testing the race with us in our own markets, and there seems 
 but little reason to doubt that in the future the competition in 
 our cotton manufacture will largely increase. 
 
 The same, in a more modified sense, may be said of iron. 
 In the latter case we have certain natural advantages which 
 will be difficult to nullify : the quantity and quality of our iron 
 ore, its contiguity to coal, the enormous organisation, and the 
 large skill of our manufacturers themselves, all aid in main- 
 taining this branch of our trade ; but there are indications that 
 the competition will even in this be very keen. Of late years 
 Belgium, France and Prussia have entered largely into com- 
 petition with us, in contracts for foreign orders ; and the cost 
 of shipment and transit in the case of all bulk iron goods 
 materially aids their efforts. Not only is this true with reference 
 to our foreign trade, but the same results have been produced 
 in our home market ; rails, engines, and machinery having 
 been supplied by Prussian, French, and Belgian firms to our 
 English consumers. In a note to Mr. Thornton's work " On 
 Labour" are some remarks which are germain to the present 
 consideration of this question and which are here subjoined. 
 
 " There is some reason to apprehend that the limits within 
 "which unionist exactions ought in prudence to be restrained, 
 " have already been in some cases overstepped. The importa- 
 " tion into Hull of doors and window-frames from Stockholm, 
 " the order from Russia of 40,000 tons of iron obtained in 
 " 1866 by a Belgian firm in opposition to English competition, 
 "the contract with the Dutch Government for rails wrested in 
 "the same year by a Liege house from English ironmasters, 
 " the fact of Belgian rails having been laid down on the East 
 " Gloucestershire Railway, and of there being French locomo- 
 " tives running on the Great Eastern line — these, after every 
 " abatement of their significance that can be suggested, are 
 " still ugly symptoms, which our unionist workers in wood 
 "and iron cannot wisely disregard. I have seen it some-
 
 OUR FUTURE TRADE. 77 
 
 " where stated (by Messrs. Creed and Williams, if I recollect 
 "rightly) that the order for 40,000 tons of iron, alluded to 
 " above, involved wages to the amount of £500,000." 
 
 We have now before us the general mass of facts that 
 affect the probabilities of our future cotton and iron trade. 
 It would have been easy to have extended the illustrations 
 further, but these trades have been selected as representing not 
 only a large proportion of ours export, but also as having been 
 characteristically our own ; they may, therefore, be considered 
 more or less typical, and the reasoning that is true of these 
 will be true also of others. The whole result appears to 
 point decisively to the conclusion, that, under existing con- 
 ditions, we have no right to anticipate a further large develop- 
 ment of our future trade.
 
 78 
 CHAPTEE IV. 
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 In the last chapter an endeavour was made to trace out the 
 probabilities bearing upon the growth of our future trade. 
 It now becomes necessary that we should follow out the con- 
 ditions that surround the question of Population and Food, 
 as it is not possible to form a clear conception of the difficulties 
 with which we have to deal, unless the facts connected with 
 this portion of the subject are brought fairly before us-. 
 
 At different times the effect, that excessive population 
 may have upon the well-being of society, has awakened 
 keen and animated discussion, notably so in the case of 
 Malthus and those who follow the same class of thought ; 
 but the fundamental error, which appears to underlie 
 all such discussions, is the attempt to elevate into an 
 abstract theory that which is essentially a practical matter 
 of fact. Throughout the whole of their argument, more 
 or less definitely, the assumption runs, — that the world 
 is already peopled ; — that our knowledge of nature is com- 
 plete ; — and that the capacity of production through science 
 is exhausted. Yet if there be any points absolutely clear they 
 are, — that the world is not peopled; — that our knowledge is 
 not complete ; — and that science is not exhausted. It would, 
 therefore, appear unwise to predict the future conditions of 
 the world or to set limits to its capacity for human life. The 
 mathematical formula that asserts the progresssve rate of 
 population, but denies the same force to our food, altogether 
 ignores the broad fact that life is as indefinitely expansive in 
 the corn plant as in man, and that the law of progressive
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 79 
 
 increase that governs the one governs also the other. To 
 meet this by pointing out the practical difficulties that 
 surround the indefinite development of food immediately 
 changes the whole question to a mere matter of every day 
 life ; and we no longer discuss the abstract problem, but 
 the practical conditions by which we are surrounded. 
 
 So far as the question refers to the immediate present, 
 the world is not half peopled. The vast tracts of land 
 in Asia, Africa, Australia and America that have yet to be 
 be brought under the influence ot modern cultivation are 
 so enormous as to remove the whole question into the remote 
 future, or into the changeful arena of metaphysical specu- 
 lation. It may take long ages before the world is fully 
 peopled, even under existing influences, and according to 
 our present ideas ; but to venture to limit either the power 
 of science or the changes that may be evolved in that vast 
 future is to assume a position that no ordinary reasoning 
 can warrant ; to attempt still further to deal with facts, 
 circumstances and conditions, of which we can have no pos- 
 sible data, appears to be a mere waste of time, whilst 
 practical difficulties remain around us. One illustration 
 bearing upon the possibilities that surround the whole 
 question may here be given, as showing how facts crop 
 up, and how utterly wasteful all speculation must be, on 
 a ground so shifting as that of human food. In Stuart 
 Mill's " Political Economy " we have the following : — 
 
 "There is one contingency connected with freedom of 
 " importation, which may yet produce temporary effects greater 
 " than were ever contemplated either by the bitterest enemies 
 " or the most ardent adherents of free-trade in food. Maize, 
 " or Indian corn, is a product capable of being supplied in 
 "quantity sufficient to feed the whole country, at a cost, allow- 
 "ing for difference of nutritive quality, cheaper even than the 
 " potato. If maize should ever substitute itself for wheat as
 
 80 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 " the staple food of the poor, the productive powers of labour 
 " in obtaining food would be so enormously increased, and the 
 " expense of maintaining a family so diminished, that it would 
 "require perhaps some generations for population, even if it 
 " started forward at an American pace, to overtake this great 
 "accession to the facilities of its support." 
 
 But although the abstract question of population and food 
 may be regarded as an intellectual gymnasium, yet from 
 time to time cases arise in various parts of the world, when, 
 through the force of circumstances, population becomes more 
 dense than the land is capable of supporting, and when the 
 practical question forces itself on our notice, and demands a 
 solution. Such has been the case in Ireland, and such is the 
 case in England to-day. In Ireland, we all know the result. 
 We know how the people clung to the land, with a pas- 
 sionate intensity that poverty only increased ; how, in spite 
 of all warnings, the population grew and grew, sinking 
 lower step by step, until the barest existence, sullenly eked 
 out, was the utmost that could be hoped for. Denser and 
 denser became the population, miserable and yet more 
 miserable became existence, until at last they stood ever 
 on the verge of famine. Under such circumstances the future 
 was not difficult to foresee ; the time was sure to come 
 when starvation would set in, when, by the mere force of 
 numbers, life would crush life out. It came at last : the 
 potato blight fell upon the Irish crops, and the people died 
 by thousands. An eye-witness thus describes it (Trench's 
 " Realities of Irish Life ") :— 
 
 " The crop of all crops, on which they depended for food, 
 "had suddenly melted away, and no adequate arrangements 
 " had been made to meet this calamity, — the extent of which 
 " was so sudden and so terrible that no one had appreciated 
 " it in time — and thus thousands perished almost without an 
 " effort to save themselves.
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 81 
 
 " Public relief works were soon set on foot by the Govern- 
 " ment. Presentment sessions were held, relief committees 
 "organised, and the roads were tortured and cut up ; hills 
 " were lowered, and hollows filled, and wages were paid for 
 " half or quarter work — but still the people died. Soup 
 "kitchens and 'stirabout houses' were resorted to. Free 
 " trade was partially adopted. Indian meal poured into 
 " Ireland ; individual exertions and charity abounded to an 
 " enormous extent — but still the people died. Many of the 
 " highest and noblest in the land, both men and women, lost 
 " their lives, or contracted diseases from which they never 
 " afterwards recovered, in their endeavours to stay this fearful 
 " calamity — but still the people died. We did what we could 
 "at Cardtown, but though the distress there was far less 
 " than in most other places, yet our efforts seemed a mere 
 "drop of oil let fall upon the ocean of misery around us — 
 "and still the people died!" 
 
 How clear the warnings had been, is testified by " Wade's 
 History of the Industrial Orders," published in 1842, in 
 which he says : — " The potato diet of the Irish is a principal 
 " reason that famines are so frequent and dreadful among 
 " them. The national subsistence depends on a single root, 
 " and if the crop of that fails, there is no other substitute to 
 " which they can resort. A wheat-fed population may, in the 
 " event of scarcity, obtain supplies of corn from other coun- 
 " tries ; but a potato-fed population, with wages to correspond, 
 " could not purchase the aid of foreigners, and if potatoes 
 " could be obtained, they are too bulky a commodity to be 
 " imported on an emergency. How different the state of a 
 " people, when bread, and meat, and beer, form the chief food 
 " of the labourer ! Here, there is scope for retrenchment in a 
 " period of scarcity. From wheat, the worldng-man may 
 " temporarily resort to cheaper food — to barley, oats, rice, and 
 " vegetables. He has room to fall ; but he who is habitually 
 
 G
 
 82 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 kept on the cheapest food, is without a substitute when 
 deprived of it. Labourers so placed are absolutely cut off 
 from every resource. You may take from au Englishman, 
 but you cannot take from an Irishman — no more than front 
 a man already naked. The latter is already in the lowest 
 deep, and he can sink no lower ; his wages being regulated 
 by potatoes, the staple article of his subsistence, will not 
 buy him wheat, or barley, or oats ; and whenever, therefore, 
 the supply of potatoes fails, he has no escape from absolute 
 famine — unless he help himself, as the Irish do in dearths, 
 to nettles, sea-weed, and sour sorrel, the last of which was 
 found in the stomach of one poor creature who perished of 
 hunger. "Whatever has been the cause, the consequences 
 of the number of labourers outgrowing the demand for them, 
 have been deplorable. All inquiries respecting Ireland 
 concur in representing the number of the people as exces- 
 sive, and their condition as wretched in the extreme. Their 
 miserable cabins are utterly unprovided with anything that 
 can be called furniture ; in many families there are no such 
 things as bedclothes ; the children, in the extensive districts 
 of Minister and the other provinces, have not a single rag 
 to cover their nakedness ; and whenever the potato-crop 
 becomes even in a slight degree deficient, the scourge of 
 famine and disease is felt in every part of the country. The 
 competition for employment and the competition for land 
 have rendered both wages and profits little more than 
 nominal, and both peasant and farmer are engaged in a 
 constant struggle for the bare necessaries of life, without 
 ever tasting its comforts." 
 The condition here depicted was that which existed 
 
 previous to the outbreak of the dread famine of 1846. 
 
 Since these days a great change has crept over the land ; 
 
 the Ireland of to-day is not the Ireland of thirty years ago, 
 
 for, despite political discontent and social criminality, despite
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 83 
 
 religious differences and secret organizations, her whole 
 position is probably higher than it had ever before reached. 
 This fact is testified by the investments in savings' banks, the 
 increase in the value of farming stock, and in the generally 
 progressive character in the value of land itself, the last the 
 most decisive test of advancement. These great changes 
 have been produced by the exodus of her people, which has 
 diminished the population by one-third, and in short, reduced 
 it to that number which the land can feed. The tale tells 
 itself in the comparison of the population returns in 1845 
 and 1868. 
 
 The year 1845 the numbers were 8,295,061 
 1868 „ 5,532,342 
 
 the smaller number now being fed by the same means 
 and from the same land as the larger number were in 
 1845. If emigration should still further continue, the result 
 will be, that the state of Ireland will still further improve ; 
 but even under existing circumstances it has now only to 
 produce food for two where it had to produce it for 
 three; a problem simple enough for all of us to under- 
 stand. 
 
 The condition produced in Ireland from over population 
 has been chosen as an illustration of a general principle, 
 because it was one near home, and one also with which 
 we are all acquainted. The case was one where the people 
 were fed from the land, and from the land alone ; manu- 
 factures and commerce, as we understand them, had no place 
 in Irish life. But, with some differences, we can press this 
 teaching still more closely home ; for our country also is 
 over populated. England, more emphatically even than 
 Ireland, cannot feed her own people ; but the condition with 
 us has been changed by the fact that, by our commerce, we 
 have made ourselves a part of the entire world, through the 
 creation of an export trade. It was the one channel open to 
 
 g 2
 
 84 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 us, and we availed ourselves of it. What seed time and 
 harvest are to other countries, that our export trade is to us. 
 It represents the fruition and garnering up of the stores by 
 which one-half of us are fed. It represents also that portion 
 of our harvest which has grown to meet the wants and supply 
 the food for an ever-increasing population. When it slackens 
 or ceases to grow, as at the present time, the warnings of 
 destitution and discontent become everywhere manifested, 
 because the people increase whilst their work does not. If 
 in the open race our export trade permanently ceased to 
 grow, the results that fell upon Ireland would also fall upon 
 ourselves, with this difference — our "Saxon thrift and fore- 
 sight would prevent the full force of the calamity, and we 
 should struggle through our difficulties, and find a home 
 elsewhere. But how absolutely our export trade stands to 
 us in the position here indicated will be best appreciated by 
 following out the facts that can be shown to have existed in 
 the past, and by our having before us what England and 
 Wales can do towards the food of the people. 
 
 It has been said that Ave cannot feed our people by the 
 produce of our own land, and this condition has grown upon 
 us very rapidly. Less than a century ago, we not only fed our 
 entire population, but exported food to other lands ; since that 
 date, although our country has been brought more largely 
 under cultivation, and farming has risen to the position of 
 a quasi scientific pursuit, and, as a consequence, the amount 
 of food produced has been enormously increased ; yet the 
 fact still remains the same — we cannot feed our own people. 
 How gradually, how stealthily, but how inevitably this has 
 been so, statistics will most readily teach us ; and they teach 
 it in a manner that admits of neither equivocation nor doubt. 
 In order that the case may be simple and complete, the growth 
 of population is placed side by side with our imports and 
 exports of corn.
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 85 
 
 Imports. Exports. Population. 
 
 Qrs. Qrs. 
 
 1700—1709 - - 1,047,026 - 6,186,815 
 
 1710—1719 - - 1,045,949 - 6,252,427 
 
 1720—1729 - - 1,044,960 - 6,217,861 
 
 1730—1739 - 2,767,130 - 6,168,099 
 
 1740—1749 - - 2,995,591 - 6,244,533 
 
 1750—1759 - - 3,127,164 - 6,528,193 
 
 1760—1769 - 1,384,661 6,936,970 
 
 1770—1779 - 431,575 - - 7,363,64o 
 
 1780—1789 - 233,502 - 7,914,703 
 
 1790—1799 - 3,216,095 - - 8,724,213 
 
 1800—1809 - 5,747,528 - ■ - 9,513,111 
 
 1810—1819 - 6,550,466 - - 11,004,612 
 
 1820—1829 - 8,146,679 - - 12,903,059 
 
 1830—1839 - 15,082,607 - - 14,724,063 
 
 During- a considerable portion of the term here taken we 
 were carrying on a large trade in corn, so that the usual 
 returns of our imports and exports do not exhibit at a glance 
 the actual state of the case ; but, in order that the subject 
 may be simplified, the imports and exports are deducted 
 from one another, and the net result is here given. Each 
 return represents the totals of every successive ten years. 
 
 It will be seen on looking at these figures that from the 
 time that our population (England and Wales) exceeded 
 seven millions we began to import corn, although the 
 amount of the importation is too small for some time, to 
 indicate more than the possible variations incidental to 
 good or bad harvests ; but, no sooner does our population 
 exceed eight millions, than each successive increase of popu- 
 lation is met by increased importations of corn. So clear 
 and definite is this, that it may fairly be said that, under 
 the then existing mode of life in England, and farmed 
 as our land was then farmed, we could feed about that 
 number. Since that time the yield incidental to the in-
 
 86 
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 creased and improved cultivation has largely augmented, so 
 that the actual amount of food producible is probably equal 
 to the requirements of eleven millions of our people under 
 the existing conditions of life. 
 
 But in order that this may be quite clear, it will be wise 
 to take the actual amount of land under cultivation for the 
 production of corn, and compare with it the amount of corn 
 produced, as testified by the amount of home grown corn 
 sold at the different towns of the United Kingdom, and shown 
 by the Government returns. To prevent any misunderstand- 
 ing, it will be well that the whole of the area of the kingdom, 
 and the purposes to which it is appropriated should be placed 
 clearly before us. For that purpose we can refer to the 
 Government Agricultural Keturns, which are here subjoined, 
 as also some remarks bearing indirectly upon the question. 
 
 
 
 Years. 
 
 England. 
 
 Wales. 
 
 Total Population 
 
 Total Aeea (in Statute Acres) 
 
 Abstract of Acreage : — 
 Under all Kinds of Crops, Bare j 
 Fallow, and Grass - \ 
 
 „ Corn Crops - - - j 
 „ Green Crops - - ] 
 
 „ Bare Fallow - - j 
 
 „ Grass : — 
 
 Clover, &c., under ( 
 Rotation - - ( 
 
 Permanent Pasture, \ 
 not broken up in / 
 Rotation (exclusive > 
 of Heath or Moun- ( 
 tain Land - - J 
 
 1868 
 
 20,451,233 
 
 1,198,144 
 
 - 
 
 32,590,397 
 
 4,734,486 
 
 1867 
 1868 
 
 1867 
 1868 
 
 1867 
 1868 
 
 1867 
 1868 
 
 1867 
 1868 
 
 1867 
 1868 
 
 22,932,356 
 
 23,038,781 
 
 7,399,347 
 7,499,218 
 
 2,691.734 
 2,585,019 
 
 750,210 
 799,739 
 
 2,478,117 
 2,070,638 
 
 9,545,675 
 9,703,884 
 
 2,415,139 
 2,503,646 
 
 521,404 
 
 547,873 
 
 138,387 
 128,299 
 
 86,257 
 83,720 
 
 300,756 
 328,232 
 
 1,368,329 
 1,415,327
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 87 
 
 " An increased interest may be taken in returns re- 
 " lating* to the agriculture of the country if the annual 
 " addition to the total number of consumers of food in 
 " Great Britain be considered. In round numbers, about 
 " 240,000 persons are annually added to the resident 
 " population in Great Britain. The additional wheat sup- 
 " ply required for that number at an average of six 
 " bushels per head, amounts to nearly 180,000 quarters, 
 " which, at an average English yield of 28 bushels per 
 " acre, represents the produce of upwards of 50,000 acres, 
 " and of a much larger acreage at a lower rate of pro- 
 " duction." 
 
 The statements here made are no doubt true, so far 
 as the yield of the acre is concerned in certain very 
 favoured localities, such as the fen portions of Lincoln- 
 shire ; but it must be remembered that both in the 
 Northern and Southern counties of England the cultiva- 
 tion would not produce a yield in any sense approaching 
 the amount here named. Taking the average, and look- 
 ing at all the circumstances, it may be doubted whether 
 more than a quarter and a half, or some slight fraction 
 beyond, could be assumed as being generally correct, a 
 fact readily understood when the imperfect cultivation, 
 bad harvests, and poor land are taken into consideration. 
 This opinion is borne out by the returns of wheat, oats 
 and barley of home growth, of which the quantities as 
 sold during ten years are here given. It may be ne- 
 cessary to point out, that the returns of the amount of 
 corn sold, are fuller 1840 — 1849 than they are at later 
 dates, and the comparison as to acreage under culti- 
 vation has been obliged to be taken as late as 18G7, as 
 earlier reliable returns do not exist; and even those now 
 taken are exceedingly imperfect, but it is probable that they 
 are sufficiently accurate for the purposes now sought for.
 
 88 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 Acreage in 1867 under cultivation for Corn was 7,399,347 
 
 1840 Qrs. of Home Grown Corn sold 8,156,855 
 
 1841 - Do. - 8,345,106 
 
 1842 - Do. - 8,869,950 
 
 1843 - Do. 10,289,722 
 
 1844 - Do. - 10,280,444 
 
 1845 - Do. 11,135,681 
 
 1846 - Do. - 10,867,809 
 
 1847 Do. 7,639,081 
 
 1848 - Do. 8,824,446 
 
 1849 - Do. - 7,404,884 
 Average yield, 9,182,297 Quarters 
 
 It will thus appear that the average of acres under culti- 
 vation may be assumed to be at least seven millions, whilst 
 the average produce sold does not much exceed nine millions 
 of quarters ; if we allow a large portion as being retained 
 for home use, so as to bring the total produce up to ten 
 millions five hundred thousand quarters, the result will be 
 that which has been already stated — viz., a yield of one and 
 a half quarters to the acre, or a capacity to feed about eleven 
 millions of people. 
 
 It will be necessary to note that the standard of living 
 
 is on an average much higher at present than it was a 
 
 century ago, and we must, therefore, recognise that some 
 
 proportion of our improvements in agriculture has been 
 
 absorbed by that cause. But making all such allowances, 
 
 it may be said that we can feed about the number stated 
 
 above ; and this estimate is still further borne out by the 
 
 food we import, and which is equal to the requirements of 
 
 the other half of our population — the total number being 
 
 21,042,577. 
 
 The returns of our imports of corn for the last three 
 
 years are here subjoined, and when they are reduced into 
 
 detail they yield about ljlbs of bread to each individual of a
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 89 
 
 population of more than ten millions, and when the vary- 
 ing* conditions of life are kept in mind, such as extreme 
 youth, extreme age, sickness, debility, destitution, poverty, 
 jails, workhouses and hospitals, &c, such quantities per head 
 would appear to be a full allowance. 
 
 3 866. 1867. 1868. 
 
 cwts. cwls. cwts. 
 
 Wheat - - 23,308,615 34,888,369 32,894,073 
 
 Wheat meal - 4,972,280 3,592,919 3,098,022 
 
 28,280,895 38,481,368 35,992,095 
 
 In addition to these imports of wheat and wheat meal, the 
 whole of the quantities returned under the headings, Peas, 
 Beans, Barley, Oats, Indian Corn, &c, &c., hare been 
 intentionally omitted, although they appear in the returns 
 as corn food. It may be observed that several kinds are 
 largely used for human food ; such as oats for oatmeal, 
 barley for groats, peas for many kinds of cooked food, and 
 Indian corn for a variety of purposes, but the figures de- 
 fining what portion is used for brewing, what for distilling, 
 what for human food or what for animal food, are not given 
 in detail and probably do not exist, so that a precise judg- 
 ment cannot be formed, although the broad facts are clear and 
 distinct ; and they point out that the imports of food are 
 larger per head than the quantity which has been taken in 
 the calculations above. 
 
 If these estimates be correct, the result that follows is, 
 that, since the close of the last century, the bulk increase of 
 our population has been fed through the assistance afforded 
 us by the increase of our export trade, and however great 
 may have been our apparent successes in connection there- 
 with, they have all been necessitated by the demand for 
 food. With us it was not a question whether our export 
 trade should grow in a greater or lesser degree ; our position
 
 90 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 was this, that, if it failed to grow, we must either emigrate or 
 starve. What efforts have heen made and what results have 
 followed will be best testified by a comparison between the 
 amount of our export trade at the present time and at that 
 earlier date when we could feed ourselves : — 
 
 1770, £10,013,803 1863, £179,463,644 
 
 Or, in other words, the amount of our exports are eighteen 
 times as great now as they were then. At the present time 
 the mere variation of the returns from year to year is larger 
 than the total of our exports at that earlier epoch. But 
 at that time our commerce represented the exchange of our 
 surplus productions, and the fancies that sprang from 
 accumulated wealth ; to-day our commerce represents the 
 necessities of life, and the means by which our people are 
 fed. 
 
 In order to follow this out, it will be necessary that we 
 should have before us the actual relation existing between 
 the growth of our export trade and population, and this 
 will be best exhibited by the following table. The year 
 1840 has been taken as the starting point, as it was from 
 that date the previous comparisons in connection with our 
 export trade were made. The returns are taken at intervals 
 of five years. 
 
 Exports. Population. 
 
 1840 - - 51,406,430 - - 15,730,813 
 
 1845 - - 60,111,082 - - 16,739,136 
 
 1850 - - 71,367,885 - - 17,773,324 
 
 1855 - - 95,688,085 - - 18,829,000 
 
 1860 - - 135,891,227 - - 19,902,713 
 
 1865 - - 165,835,725 - - 20,990,946 
 
 But the relation that our export trade bears to the people 
 is, not the relation to the population as a whole, but to 
 that portion which may be described as our surplus popu- 
 lation, being that portion over and beyond what we can
 
 POPULATION AND FOOD. 91 
 
 feed by the produce of our own land. Assuming the 
 number we can feed to be eleven millions, the actual con- 
 dition of our export trade with reference to population will 
 
 then be represented as follows : — 
 
 Exports. Surplus Population. 
 
 1840 - - 51,406,430 - - 4,730,813 
 
 1845 - - 60,111,082 - - 5,739,136 
 
 1850 - - 71,367,885 - - 6,773,324 
 
 1855 - - 95,688,085 - - 7,829,000 
 
 1860 - - 135,891,227 - - 8,902,713 
 
 1865 - - 165,835,725 - - 9,990,946 
 
 It will be seen that our later returns show a relatively 
 large increase ; this is partly explained by the general 
 increase of wages, and partly also by the improvements 
 in machinery, which would swell the total amount of the 
 returns, without increasing the demand for labour. The 
 rise in price of the raw material — such, for instance, as 
 cotton — is another cause why our trade might be larger in 
 amount and not larger in reality. "With these allowances 
 and explanations the gross increase of our returns keeps pace 
 with the increase of our surplus population. 
 
 Viewed in the light here indicated, our present condition 
 would appear to be the natural sequence derivable from 
 known facts. If in 1866 when we were at the height of our 
 commercial prosperity, our population was not only equal to 
 all demands that were made upon it for the purpose of 
 producing the requisite amount of manufactured goods, but 
 if at that time, we had a large mass of able-bodied pauperism 
 lying absolutely idle, it was sufficiently clear that labour 
 was then in excess of all demands. Since that date our 
 trade has receded and is not to-day equal in amount to what 
 it was then, and yet our population has grown to the extent 
 of six or seven hundred thousand people. The results that 
 follow appear to be inevitable. If we have more people
 
 92 POPULATION AND FOOD. 
 
 to feed and less means of feeding them, it will be quite 
 obvious, why we have the destitution, misery, and pauperism 
 that now surround us, and why, under existing* circum- 
 stances, it is so continuously on the advance. It would 
 appear to be equally inevitable, that so long as our popu- 
 lation continues to increase and our export trade does not 
 grow in proportion, so surely will the misery that is now so 
 great, deepen in intensity. 
 
 It would ha^e been easy to extend these facts, but 
 the desire has been to place the relation that population 
 bears to food in a clear light, and then allow it to tell its 
 own tale. Through all classes of figures, through all 
 classes of facts, through all classes of life, its teachings 
 may be found. It speaks to us through the Kegistrar 
 General's Eeturns, as day by day we see those figures 
 mount up ; it speaks to us through that cry of sorrow and 
 want that may be heard throughout the land ; and it speaks 
 to us through that ever widening field of human sympathy, 
 that toils to alleviate misery, but toils utterly in vain. The 
 stream of poverty that is diminished to-day swells into 
 mendicity to-morrow, and threatens to overwhelm us by 
 pauperism the day after; and still the cries increase and 
 the struggle deepens. Above all there rises the never 
 ceasing question : — How is the difficulty to be met, and how 
 are the people to find both work and food?
 
 93 
 
 CHAPTER V. 
 
 LABOUR. 
 
 In the last chapter an endeavour was made to trace out 
 the points bearing upon the question of Population and 
 Food ; hut Labour, Pauperism, and Emigration, are so linked 
 and entwined with it, that the reasoning which relates to the 
 one shades off imperceptibly into the other. Press any one 
 of these subjects vigorously, and the others will spring to the 
 surface ; track them all home, and they will be found bound 
 to the same centre, they are the radiating lines of the 
 same general cause. In the present chapter it is proposed 
 to follow the question of Labour so far as its influences 
 can be shown to affect our present circumstances. 
 
 At the outset it will be well to state, that there is no inten- 
 tion to discuss the many abstract questions that are con- 
 nected with the subject; such as, the probable future of 
 labour, the value of machinery to human progress, the 
 relationship it bears to co-operation, and so forth. All 
 these questions are exceedingly valuable ; but the point 
 aimed at here is the practical solution of existing difficulties, 
 for the grandest reach of abstract thought is of little use 
 unless it blends its teachings with the necessities of every 
 day life. 
 
 The question now before us is, "What are the circumstances, 
 at present in force, that tend to affect the demand for labour, 
 and whither do they lead in the future ? With this end 
 in view, it will be necessary to trace out the causes that 
 influence our agricultural pursuits, our home and foreign
 
 94 - LABOUR. 
 
 trade, as well as keeping* in view the effect that machinery 
 now has, and probably will have, upon them all. 
 
 The whole condition of agricultural labour reduces itself 
 into the simple question, of the amount of land under cul- 
 tivation, and the amount of labour that is required to 
 cultivate it, according to our present standard. It is of 
 course possible to conceive a state of things in which 
 agriculture may be carried to a much higher develop- 
 ment than it is at present, but we must remember that 
 the practical question is, at what point can agriculture be 
 made to pay, and it is idle to expect it will be carried 
 beyond. Under the pressure for food that has existed now 
 for nearly a century, all the more available and valuable 
 lands have been appropriated ; and although it may be 
 anticipated, that in consequence of the vigorous demands 
 which will probably be made upon the Government, some 
 portions of the waste lands of the kingdom will be brought 
 under cultivation, yet such an effect will be too slow and 
 too small to materially affect the present question. We may 
 therefore assume that so far as consumption of labour is 
 concerned the demand in connection with agricultural re- 
 quirements is amply supplied at the present time. 
 
 But there are new causes now rising into existence which 
 will tend to make the existing supply of labour in agricul- 
 tural pursuits more than equal to all requirements ; and one 
 prominent cause is the introduction of machinery. Within 
 the last twenty years steam ploughing, steam thrashing, 
 steam hoeing, and steam drilling, have passed from the 
 domain of speculation into that of practice, and the result 
 is, and will necessarily be, a gradual diminution in the 
 demand for that manual labour, which had been previously 
 employed in doing the work. 
 
 It is very often assumed that the introduction of steam 
 into any industry in reality creates labour. In certain trades
 
 LABOUR. 95 
 
 this is true ; for instance, when the introduction of steam- 
 power so cheapens an article that the demand for it is 
 enormously increased ; or in the case of a newspaper, where 
 the question of rapid production is the very element of its 
 existence, and, as such, an adequate supply can only be pro- 
 duced By th aide of steam. Under such circumstances the 
 introduction of steam machinery creates a demand for labour 
 instead of reducing it. But it is impossible to apply the same 
 reasoning to agricultural pursuits ; a plough, whether drawn 
 by horses or driven by steam, will only plough the land, and 
 the element of time, which makes steam the necessity in a 
 newspaper, does not exist with reference to land. If the land 
 is not ploughed to-day it can be ploughed to-morrow ; but the 
 newspaper that is not printed to-day is not printed at all. 
 Steam thus becomes a necessity in the one case, but not in the 
 other. If therefore steam is used in agriculture, it is used 
 primarily because it does work both cheaper and better. We 
 may therefore naturally anticipate that as the value of 
 steam in agricultural operations becomes better appreciated, 
 it will be more extensively used, and, as a consequence, the 
 demand for labour will be further lessened. 
 
 The general result here indicated is borne out by the 
 population returns, for it is found that the actual numbers 
 employed in our agricultural pursuits are less now than 
 they were formerly, and this has taken place notwithstanding 
 the influence of the Enclosure Act, which has already added 
 504,391 acres to the general area under cultivation since 
 1845, This diminution in the demand for labour in our 
 agricultural districts is proved by our population returns. 
 In 1851 the number employed was 2,011,447 ; in 1861 
 the number employed was 1,924,110 ; showing a diminution 
 of 87,337. 
 
 Another reason may also be given. The introduction of 
 railways has had the tendency to draw people from the
 
 96 LABOUR. 
 
 country into the large towns, and thus reduce the labour 
 seeking employment in the more rural parts. Still one 
 further reason may be added, the marked tendency to large 
 instead of small holdings of land, the effect of which is to 
 economise the expenditure of labour ; but, whatever may be 
 the exact causes, the result is clear. Our farming to-day, 
 although over a larger area and more carefully attended to, 
 is carried out with less manual labour than was previously 
 required. And it seems difficult to conceive any circum- 
 stances that will permanently stay the increasing tendency 
 to the reduction of labour in connection with our agricultural 
 pursuits, It would therefore appear probable that we must 
 anticipate a diminution in the demand for labour so far 
 as agriculture is concerned. Let us now pass to the con- 
 sideration of the conditions that surround our home require- 
 ments. 
 
 It is impossible to avoid seeing that another portion of 
 our home requirements is dependent upon the condition of 
 our export trade. When our export trade is good, when 
 orders are large, and when as a sequence manufacturers are 
 prosperous, the whole condition of the country improves, 
 and labour is better paid. But the opposite condition is 
 also true ; when trade is stagnant, manufacturers cease to be 
 busy, and depression settles down upon our home trade. 
 This is our condition to-day ; and it appears probable, 
 for the reasons which have already been given, that it will be 
 still worse in the future. AVe may therefore accept as 
 a broad proposition, that the growth and development of 
 our export trade is a large and permanent cause affecting 
 the condition of our home trade, either for prosperity or 
 adversity. 
 
 Entirely beyond this portion of the question, there are 
 several reasons which must be considered before we can 
 cume to any reliable conclusion ; first among these must be
 
 LABOUR. 97 
 
 the recognition that during the last thirty or forty years 
 we have passed through a series of circumstances that have 
 made large demands for labour, but which cannot, under 
 the ordinary conditions of life, again occur. During thai 
 period we have founded, constructed, and developed thb 
 entire of our railway system, and we have done this at an 
 enormous cost of time and money. Short connecting lines 
 here and there, a new station at one place, or a new junction 
 at another, will be continuously occurring; but the system, as 
 a system, is built and founded, and will not, therefore, require 
 the amount of labour in the future that has been required 
 for its construction in the past. 
 
 These facts will be more clearly developed if we bring 
 definitely before our mind the amount of capital invested in 
 our railway system, and picture to ourselves the quantity 
 of labour that has been required to bring it to its present 
 position. In 186(3 the amount invested was £481,872,184, 
 of which sum more than 200 millions had been expended 
 since 18^3. We niay readily conceive what a large influence 
 the expenditure of this capital has had upon the whole 
 labour market of the country, for we must remember that a 
 greater portion of this money was employed in paying for 
 labour, — labour of constructon, labour for engines, rails, 
 carriages, &c, &c, and although in the future a certain 
 amount will still be required to effect the changes inci- 
 dental to all large operations, and a further amount must be 
 allowed for wear and tear, yet the greater proportion of 
 all such labour will be required no more. 
 
 The same general remarks will be found applicable to 
 many of the changes that have taken place in London. A 
 simple enumeration of some of the works which have been 
 carried out within the last few years will best illustrate 
 this ; a list of some portion of such works is here sub- 
 joined : —
 
 98 LABOUR. 
 
 Main Drainage Works, 
 
 Thames Embankment, 
 
 Soutk-Eastern Junctions and Stations, 
 
 London, Chatham, and Dover Stations, 
 
 Midland Do. (King's Cross), 
 
 Metropolitan Railway, 
 
 Westminster Bridge, 
 
 Hammersmith Bridge, 
 
 Blackfriars Bridge, 
 
 Holborn Viaduct, 
 
 City Improvements, &c, &c. 
 All these works may be regarded as permanent works, 
 not requiring renewal for some centuries ; and yet these 
 works have, by a series of causes, been condensed into 
 ten or twelve years, absorbing during their construction a 
 very large amount of labour, and liberating the same quan- 
 tity of labour on their completion. If works of equal mag- 
 nitude and of a similar character do not require to be con- 
 structed in the future, how is the labour to find employment? 
 "We may press the question still further home by remem- 
 bering that the enormous expansion of our past commerce has 
 called forth an equal development of factories, workshops, 
 and machinery. So much has this been the case that 
 the constructive capacity of our country has grown until 
 it has reached a level equal to its greatest demands. The 
 full force of this will appear when we remember that the 
 existing conditions of our factories are at least equal to an 
 export trade of 200 millions per annum, and our present 
 trade is 20 millions less than that amount. 
 
 We are prone to ignore or forget the fact that the work- 
 shops of the country do not require continuously rebuilding. 
 We have built in the past, because— with few exceptions 
 — our commerce has grown continuously in the past, and 
 we needed more mills and more workshops to produce the
 
 LABOUR. 99 
 
 goods for our ever increasing trade ; but when that com- 
 merce ceases to expand the demand for new buildings and 
 new machinery must cease also. 
 
 The conditions that surround the great bulk of the people 
 will also make themselves felt one way or the other. If 
 trade be prosperous, the general status of the people 
 rises, and this influence spreads by bringing into play 
 dormant capital through the increased demand for improved 
 modes and circumstances of living. This result was evidenced 
 in our time of prosperity from 1851 — 1861 by the more than 
 proportionate increase of houses that were built in comparison 
 with the increase of population. The detailed statistics are 
 given at page 91, " General Eeport of Census, 1861." But 
 when circumstances change, when the pressure of want falls 
 upon the people, the demand for new houses ceases, and 
 this cessation in the demand for building enacts fresh want 
 by the mass of labour which is thus thrown out of em- 
 ployment. 
 
 We have yet to consider another power whose in- 
 fluence is not only permanent, but is rapidly gaining ground, 
 in the sway it is exercising over labour — that power 
 is steam machinery. Notice has already been taken of 
 the influence it is exercising upon agricultural labour 
 in England, but the reasons that have been thus urged 
 apply with still greater force to manufactures. At the 
 present moment, as well as in the past, the whole weight 
 and force of the best inventive brain of the country is, 
 and has been, directed to the production of machinery 
 that will economise labour ; the qualities of rapidity and 
 certainty of production being in another form mere economy 
 of labour. To what an extent this force of invention acts 
 may be judged of by the fact, that in cotton machinery 
 alone, from 1,200 to 1,500 patents have been taken out 
 for improvements. Every conceivable modification has been 
 
 h2
 
 100 LABOUR. 
 
 worked out, many that are utterly useless have been tried, 
 but, as a final result, our cotton machinery is almost self- 
 acting-. Nothing' can be more beautiful, more delicate, more 
 finished, or more perfect; but, as a final result, there is 
 an enormous economy of labour. 
 
 The same general principle is found to run through all 
 manufactures. Machinery and processes for the economisa- 
 tion of labour are everywhere adopted. At the present time, 
 under the existing system of intense competition, an inven- 
 tion that successfully realises the specified conditions, creates 
 a large fortune to the holder of the patent : the consequence 
 is, that the whole sweep of thought relating to manu- 
 factures is devoted to the production of improvements. 
 One case may be selected that will illustrate this. A 
 few years ago it was announced that iron could be 
 converted into fine quality of steel by the simple pro- 
 cess of casting. This assertion, which was at first ridi- 
 culed, has since become an accepted truth and is now 
 known as the " Bessemer process," and some of the 
 facts connected with it are thus stated in Koscoe's 
 "Spectrum Analysis:" — "I may mention in connection 
 with these different carbon spectra, the application of spec- 
 " tram analysis to the important branch of steel manufacture, 
 " which has been introduced and is well known under the 
 " name of the Bessemer process. In this process five tons 
 " of cast iron are in twenty minutes converted into cast steel. 
 " Steel differs from iron in containing less carbon, and by 
 " the Bessemer process the carbon is actually burnt out of 
 " the molten white-hot cast iron by a blast of atmospheric 
 "air." It will be obvious that the mere result of this in- 
 vention is, to make steel available for purposes usually 
 requiring iron; such, for instance, as our lines of rails, 
 &c, &c. : and as the wearing power of steel is very largely 
 in excess of iron, the effect is to reduce the demand for 
 
 i<
 
 LABOUR. 101 
 
 labour in this branch of industry to the difference existing 
 between the two materials. 
 
 But the illustration here given might be multiplied in- 
 definitely. Inventions exist for sawing and polishing stones, 
 making doors and sashes, moulding bricks, etc., &c, and, 
 in fact, there are in all large branches of manufacturing in- 
 dustry, inventions of some kind or the other for the economy 
 of labour, and this tendency is ever on the increase. One 
 more illustration is here added, which w T ill tell its own 
 tale : — " Pall Mall Gazette, June 4, 1869. — A labour dispute 
 " of considerable magnitude threatens the East Worcester- 
 " shire district of the black country, the principal seat of the 
 " wrought nail trade. In the neighbourhood of Bromsgrove 
 " about 2,000 nailers are already on strike, and the dis- 
 " content is so great in the villages around Dudley and 
 " Stourbridge that it is feared the workpeople in those parts 
 " of the district will be induced to join the movement. Mass 
 " meetings are being held in Bromsgrove, at which the half- 
 " starved but resolute nailers express their firm determination 
 " to hold out. The wrought nail trade — on which some 
 " 25,000 persons in this district depend for subsistence — has 
 " been revolutionized by the introduction of machinery, and 
 " in many departments the wages of the handicraftsmen have 
 " been reduced to the lowest ebb." 
 
 Some few facts have now been given and it may be well, 
 before leaving the subject, briefly to examine the results lure 
 indicated. It may be asserted that the whole force and value 
 of machinery rest upon the economy it effects in labour. 
 All railways, all spinning machines, all paper mills, &c, 
 are based upon this one idea ; and as the force of thought 
 connected with manufactures is continuously directed to- 
 wards this end, and as competition increases, individual 
 men are induced to make still more vigorous efforts to 
 succeed in the race of life, and the result is that new
 
 102 LABOUR. 
 
 ideas and new inventions spring into existence, and, as a 
 consequence, the demand for labour is still further lessened. 
 
 In the past the tendency to reduce employment by the 
 introduction of machinery has been held in check, by the 
 enormous development of our export trade. The mere fact 
 that we now export 130 millions per annum beyond what 
 we exported in 1840, will explain how it was that our 
 increased population found employment, whilst our im- 
 proved machinery largely reduced the demand for labour, 
 for the labour, then liberated, became rapidly absorbed 
 by the demands incidental to the growth of other branches 
 of industry. This explains our condition in the past, but it 
 altogether fails to explain how the requirements of our 
 future are to be satisfied, except by a rapid and con- 
 tinuous expansion of our export trade. As our labour 
 market stands to-day, our position is this, we have to find 
 employment, not only for our increasing population, but 
 also for those workmen who are thrown out of work by 
 the reduction in the demand for labour, the result of 
 improved machinery. 
 
 Men seem afraid to admit this truth ; they appear to 
 shrink from the acknowledgement that the introduction of 
 machinery lessens the demand for labour, yet it will be idle 
 to blind ourselves to the fact that machinery, as a broad 
 principle, does, to a great extent, supersede labour; and if it 
 failed to do this the machinery would be worthless. Such a 
 recognition is quite compatible with the definite acknowledg- 
 ment that machinery is not only valuable but absolutely 
 indispensable ; it produces evil results only when we allow, 
 as we have allowed to-day, the other conditions of life to 
 overlap one another. The slightest investigation would show 
 that even as England is placed, it would be utterly impossible 
 that the great bulk of the people could either be clothed, 
 fed, or house 1, as well as they now are, but for the extensive
 
 LABOUR. 103 
 
 use of machinery; yet this very recognition is embraced in 
 the assertion that machinery lessens the demand for labour, 
 not only as a temporary influence, but as a permanent 
 result. 
 
 We have now briefly travelled over the points that affect 
 labour through the existing means being more than equal 
 to our requirements, and the consequent certainty that the 
 skill which was required to bnild railways, bridges, work- 
 shops, &c, will not in the future be required to the same 
 extent as in the immediate past. We have also traced out 
 how the whole tendency of machinery is to lessen the exist- 
 ing demand for labour, and to lessen it both rapidly and de- 
 finitely. We have now to examine one more influence that 
 acti upon our labour market before we are in a position 
 to form a sound judgment, and that is the relationship of 
 the labour market of Europe to ourselves. We all accept 
 the statement that ease and rapidity of communication have 
 a direct tendency to equalise existing conditions ; and this is 
 true of labour as of all else. The various strikes, riots, 
 &c, &c, both at home and abroad, induced by the intro- 
 duction of foreign workmen into our own land, or from the 
 introduction of our own workmen into foreign lands, will 
 be an illustration of the effect of this influence. We have 
 therefore briefly to consider, is it probable that the labour 
 market of the Continent can absorb any of our surplus 
 labour, or is the tendency the other way ? 
 
 To this it may be answered that the labour market of 
 Europe is already full to overflowing. At the outset we 
 are met by the pregnant fact, that Germany, Switzerland, 
 Belgium, and France are keenly competing with us, in the 
 various markets of the world ; a valid proof that in all these 
 countries, labour is in excess of its demands. Still more 
 conspicuous are the facts that in Germany emigration to the 
 United States, and in Switzerland migration over the whole
 
 104 LABOUR. 
 
 of Europe are marked and permanent conditions of ex- 
 istence in these countries. In Belgium life is exceedingly 
 dense ; whilst in France the greatest efforts are made to 
 keep down discontent by the various devices to stimulate 
 trade, and by the creation of Imperial workshops ; all 
 these various efforts are made only because the population 
 can find work by no other means. But amongst our French 
 neighbours this question of excess of population over work 
 has spoken out again and again. It peered through the 
 embers of the First Revolution, and found its answer in 
 the wars of the First Napoleon. It awoke the teachings 
 of Fourierism, St. Simonism, Socialism, and Pied Repub- 
 licanism, all which gained heart and strength from it alone. 
 The inequalities of life may give point and force to anarchy, 
 but the key of sedition is to be found in the grasp of 
 hunger. Looking, therefore, alike at the past and the pre- 
 sent, labour in Europe would appear to be in excess of all 
 demands, and the probabilities are that the Continent will 
 send labour to compete with ourselves, rather than that they 
 will be in a position to relieve us from our surplus. 
 
 Before leaving this question, it will be well to note the 
 position of the existing armies of Europe. It is not neces- 
 sary to trace out the evils that arise from great standing 
 armies, but simply to mark their effect upon labour. At 
 the present moment the number of men under military 
 service is believed to exceed five millions. From time to 
 time the enormous expense incidental to their maintenance, 
 forces under consideration the question whether a general 
 disarmament cannot be carried out ; and although under the 
 existing circumstances of political life, such a step must be 
 considered impossible, yet a reduction will probably take place 
 sooner or later. The creation of armies to their present 
 magnitude has taken place within the last twenty years, and 
 the effect has therefore been, that the labour market has been
 
 LABOUR. 105 
 
 relieved to the total number of men thus absorbed. We have, 
 therefore, to consider, first, what will be the effect if no war 
 of magnitude should intervene, ? and, secondly, what would 
 be the effect of a grand reduction of the standing armies ? In 
 both cases the result would be the same : the overstocked 
 labour market would be still further pressed by the surplus 
 labour liberated from military service and the effect of such 
 a step as a general disarmament it is impossible to foresee ; 
 but it obviously differs from that which many of its most 
 urgent supporters anticipate, A rapid disarmament in the 
 face of a stagnant trade would not improbably manifest itself 
 in wide spread revolution. 
 
 Looking, therefore, at all the circumstances connected 
 alike with our home and export trade, the relation that we 
 bear to the labour markets of Europe, and the very powerful 
 influence that machinery is destined to effect in' the future, 
 it would appear to be inevitable, that the demand for labour 
 in our own country is at present on the wane. Let us 
 track out how this bears upon that question which is ever 
 rising, and never answered — the condition of Pauperism.
 
 106 
 CHAPTER VI. 
 
 PAUPERISM. 
 
 What is the future of Pauperism ? Is it to remain the evil 
 that it has heen for so long, or has the time arrived when 
 we shall be driven to face a great and growing difficulty by 
 the mere weight of its pressure ? The great mass of figures 
 that stands before us as a menace — varying with the seasons, 
 the march of epidemics, and the greater or lesser depression 
 of trade rouse us from our lethargy, and challenge our 
 reply. Are we to be content with tabulation, classification, 
 and supervision ? Are we to be content that this huge force 
 of waste labour, degrading and degraded, shall remain for 
 ever in the midst of us, accepted as a part of our normal life ? 
 or have we a right to demand that the question shall pass 
 from the condition of more or less efficient organization 
 into that of remedial statesmanship ? 
 
 Nothing can be more clear than the one fact, that the Poor 
 Law Board neither attempts, nor pretends to attempt, to deal 
 with any of the broad questions that bear upon pauperism. 
 It accepts and wields its position as a simple administrative 
 power, limiting its range and scope of thought to planning 
 schools, arranging nurseries, or erecting infirmaries. From 
 beginning to end it is content with this position ; it treats 
 pauperism as an element of our social life, for the well being 
 and training of which it is responsible, but responsible for 
 nothing more. If pauperism increases or decreases it asks 
 no questions. It supplies the existing wants, carries out 
 the necessary detail, and leaves the rest to chance. To 
 the ever-recurring questions, How is pauperism to be met? 
 what are the causes from which it springs ? why does it
 
 PAUPERISM. 107 
 
 ebb and flow ? the Poor Law Board affords neither hint nor 
 suggestion — it is not its function. But the time is fast 
 coming when the question will force itself before us by the 
 mere weight of an ever increasing burthen, and will raise the 
 broad issue ; Are we to accept pauperism as an inevitable 
 necessity, or are we to struggle on with an incubus that 
 threatens to crash us ? This is the question of which all 
 other discussions are mere outlying points. 
 
 It is easy for men — even honourable and upright men, who 
 do not feel the pressure of poor-rates — calmly to point out 
 that the evil has been as great before, and has conquered 
 itself. But to those who stand on the verge line of struggling 
 life, inheritors alike of poverty and toil, — that huge class 
 from which pauperism is fed ; — to them the question is not 
 one of balancing and weighing, but one of overwhelming and 
 crushing necessity; to them the question rises up in its 
 naked significance, when their home totters to its fall under 
 the mere pressure of ever increasing rates. 
 
 There need be no evasion of the broad fact, it is the poor 
 who feed the poor ; it is in the pauperised districts where the 
 rates mount up, and where pauperism is most bitter and the 
 longest sustained; and it is in those districts where the load 
 weighs most heavily. But if this were all, the mere re- 
 organization and redistribution of our poor rates might meet the 
 di B&culty ; but the causes lie far deeper : they lie partly in the 
 fact that population is in excess of work, and in the still 
 more important fact that the prospects of the future point 
 decisively to the increase of this difficulty. 
 
 By some it is asserted that the causes of pauperism can 
 be traced to imperfect education, drunkenness, epidemics, or 
 bad harvests ; and although all these influences are powerful 
 as partial agencies, they are utterly unequal to explain the 
 broad facts of the case, or to check those more potent in- 
 fluences that underlie the whole. If education were perfect,
 
 108 PAUPERISM. 
 
 if drunkenness were extinct, if epidemics ceased to exist, 
 and if bad harvests were unknown, there would still be some 
 portions of our social life that would belong of necessity 
 to the pauper class. No conceivable conditions can blot 
 out the possibilities of accidents, imbecilit}*, or disease ; and 
 no organization, however perfect, can struggle against those 
 powers which spring into play when trade slackens, and 
 employment is no longer to be found. We must, therefore, 
 recognise, and accept whilst we recognise, that pauperism is 
 an inalienable portion of all human society ; and that the 
 ameliorating influences of sanatary laws, education, and 
 sobriety may reduce, but cannot extinguish, the evil. 
 
 But the teaching that stands up before us is, that pau- 
 perism, as we now understand it, is a thing of modern 
 life, and that the mode of dealing with it which was befitting 
 a state of society such as existed at the time of Elizabeth 
 is useless for the changed conditions of to-day. The very 
 enactment that was passed indicated a class who are now 
 represented by our mendicants — the sturdy beggars who 
 could work but who would not, those who had been fostered 
 into idleness through doles at convent doors or church 
 porches, those who lived, and were content to live, by beggary. 
 To such a state of society the law that introduced the labour 
 test had a substantial meaning. The enactment runs as 
 follows : — ' ' The churchwardens and overseers, with the con- 
 ' sent of two justices, shall take order, from time to time, for 
 ' setting to rcork the children of all such whose parents shall 
 ' not, by the said churchwardens and overseers, or the greater 
 ' part of them, be thought able to keep and maintain their 
 ' children ; and for setting to work all such persons, married 
 ' or unmarried, having no means to maintain them, and 
 ' using no ordinary and daily trade of life to get their living 
 ' by ; and for the necessary relief of the lame, impotent, old, 
 ' blind, and such other among them being poor and not able
 
 PAUPERISM. 109 
 
 " to work. Thus it clearly appears this was an act for enforc- 
 " ing industry, not for encouraging idleness. No one was to 
 " be relieved, either child or adult, except, if able, by setting 
 " to work. The subsequent practice of granting money 
 " allowances, without equivalent labour, to able-bodied 
 " persons, and thereby creating a band of parish pensioners, 
 " was certainly never contemplated by the authors of this 
 " celebrated piece of legislation. . . . Between the age 
 " of Elizabeth and the present exists this important distinc- 
 " tion — the difficulty in the former was, as has been shown 
 " in the preliminary history of the industrious orders, to 
 " compel men to work; the difficulty is now to find them 
 " work to do. The idea of an able-bodied person willing 
 " to labour but unable to get employment, was never enter- 
 " tained by Lord Burleigh and his contemporaries. The 
 " object of their great measure was to meet the evil of 
 " idleness and vagabondage, which grew out of the decline 
 "of feudality. Hence I conclude that the obligation (if it 
 " exist) of parishes to relieve or find employment, for able- 
 " bodied paupers, has grown entirely out of the altered cir- 
 " cumstances of society, and that as these circumstances did 
 " not exist in the time of Elizabeth, the act passed in her 
 " reio*n could not have been framed to meet them." — Wade. 
 Let us consider what are the circumstances connected with 
 the pauper life of to-day? and what course of action it is 
 necessary to follow out ? The first glance at the question 
 indicates that there are three distinct classes of paupers : — 
 
 Those who cannot work ; 
 
 Those who will not work ; 
 
 Those who cannot find work to do. 
 
 Those who cannot work are composed of the deserted, the 
 
 broken, the aged, and the helpless ; the waifs and strays of 
 
 life, those elements which are an inherent portion of every 
 
 society, and which every society will accept the responsibility
 
 110 PAUPERISM. 
 
 of maintaining without a murmur. But this element of our 
 pauperism is the smallest part ; and even the proportion 
 it now bears to the remainder is due to the general condition 
 of our overloaded labour market, for the pressure that tells 
 upon the artisan tells still more upon those to whom he 
 is the natural protector ; and, the consequence is that a 
 large proportion of those who are now reduced to seek 
 relief would, under more favourable circumstances, be taken 
 care of by their own friends. 
 
 The class that will not work the class which trades on 
 our pity, infests us with letters, whines at our elbow, or 
 loiters at the area gate, is being brought under the influence of 
 mendicity laws, through the effort now being made to propa- 
 gate societies founded on the system so ably and successfully 
 established at Blackheath, through the agency of the Bev. Mr. 
 Hart, and which aims at ridding us of shams by placing itself 
 in connection with the parish ; relieving exceptional cases by 
 exceptional means, and having for its final aim the check of 
 mendicity. We must not shut our eyes to the fact that this 
 course of action will not reduce mendicity ; it simply changes 
 its place and character. The mendicity that is driven 
 from Blackheath finds its outlet at Westminster, driven from 
 Westminster, it infests Paddington ; driven from Paddington, 
 it goes elsewhere ; and, if driven from all positions, it even- 
 tually comes back upon the rates as a part of our recognised 
 pauper population. It may be, and possibly is, wise to force 
 this result ; but it is equally well to recognise what the end 
 is that we eventually achieve. The effect here pointed out 
 follows from the one fact, that able and efficient workmen 
 are in superabundance in every trade, and whilst respecta- 
 bility struggles in vain to obtain work, mendicity has little 
 chance of employment. The result, therefore, will be that 
 if mendicity societies actually succeed, mendicity will sink 
 either into pauperism or crime.
 
 PAUPERISM. Ill 
 
 But even if mendicity were capable of being dealt with in 
 its entirety, it would be but a small portion of pauperism. 
 The class which is at once the largest, the most respectable, 
 and the most difficult to deal with, is that class which seeks for, 
 but cannot find, employment, and which represents not only 
 the greatest number, but also that portion of pauperism which, 
 under existing conditions is, and must be, steadily on the in- 
 crease. It is curious to note how the tide of pauperism ebbs 
 and flows, but still more curious to note how its ebb and flow 
 are dependent upon the state of our trade. In order that the 
 evidence may be clear, the last twenty years have been taken, 
 and, on the assumption that our export trade represents the 
 means by which our surplus population are fed, the com- 
 parison is here instituted between the expansion and contrac- 
 tion of our trade, and the increase or decrease of pauperism : 
 
 
 Paupers. 
 
 Export. 
 
 1849 
 
 934,419 
 
 63,596,025 
 
 1850 
 
 920.543 
 
 71,367,885 
 
 1851 
 
 860,^93 
 
 74,44^,722 
 
 1852 
 
 834.424 
 
 78,076,854 
 
 1853 
 
 798,822 
 
 98,933,781 
 
 1854 
 
 818,337 
 
 97,184,726 
 
 1855 
 
 851,369 
 
 95,688,085 
 
 1856 
 
 877,767 
 
 115,826,948 
 
 1857 
 
 843,806 
 
 122,066,107 
 
 1858 
 
 908,186 
 
 116,608,756 
 
 1859 
 
 867,470 
 
 130,411,529 
 
 1860 
 
 851,020 
 
 135,891.227 
 
 1861 
 
 890,423 
 
 125,102,814 
 
 1862 
 
 946,166 
 
 123,992,264 
 
 1863 
 
 1,142,624 
 
 146,602,342 
 
 1864 
 
 1,009,289 
 
 160,449,053 
 
 1865 
 
 971.433 
 
 1< 5,835.725 
 
 1866 
 
 920,344 
 
 18^,917,536 
 
 1867 
 
 958,824 
 
 180,961,923 
 
 1868 
 
 1,034.823 
 
 179,463,644
 
 112 PAUPERISM. 
 
 In looking over these figures, it is perfectly clear that 
 when trade expands, pauperism decreases ; when trade con- 
 tracts, pauperism increases. A large number of the class, 
 who seek einploynient hut cannot find it, come to the parish 
 only when driven to it by want of work, and they pass from 
 the parish books so soon as trade improves. There are two 
 exceptions in the table which it will save trouble to explain — 
 those of the years 1856 and 1863. In the year 1856 the 
 influence of a bad harvest, combined with the reaction con- 
 sequent upon the termination of the Crimean War, led to a 
 gseat increase of pauperism. In 1863 the influence of the 
 Cotton Famine, an event without parallel in the history of 
 trade, made itself felt, and sufficiently explains the excep- 
 tional increase of our pauper returns. 
 
 This element of pauperism is gravely important because 
 it represents a class that is reduced through the influence 
 of circumstances which they cannot control. The magnitude 
 of this portion of our pauper population will be best appre- 
 ciated by some remarks made by Lord Houghton. Speaking 
 in the house of Lords, April 17, 1869, on the question of 
 pauperism and emigration, Lord Houghton said: — "What 
 " are called the able-bodied poor considerably exceed 150,000, 
 " that being an increase of 7 per cent, on the numbers in 
 " 1867, whilst those numbers again were an increase of 6 per 
 " cent, on the numbers in 1866. It is apparent therefore 
 " that, notwithstanding the increase of wealth, pauperism is 
 "steadily advancing." The numbers here given are equal 
 to that of a large army, and since that date they have 
 much increased, but even at these figures it will be quite 
 apparent how great a proportion of the whole pauper class 
 they must represent, when the children belonging to them 
 are taken into account. If then this element of pauperism — 
 that which seeks work but cannot find it— be as it would 
 appear to be, the largest portion of our whole pauper class,
 
 PAUPEKISM. 113 
 
 any suggestion that attempts to deal with pauperism must 
 deal with it through the relation it bears to labour, or by- 
 direct removal of the paupers themselves. 
 
 There is one phase of the question which is of grave 
 importance and now presses itself prominently upon our 
 notice : the tendency that exists to create a pauper class, 
 through the influence of long continued relief. As facts at 
 present stand, our every effort has a tendency to recoil upon 
 ourselves ; the relief that is given to-day, saps the self-sus- 
 taining energy of the recipient, and if long enough continued, 
 destroys not only the inclination to work, but all sense of 
 self-respect. The difficulties of this position are intensified 
 by the fact that a large number of those, who at present rank 
 amongst the pauper class, are driven to that position through 
 the state of trade. The evils that this inflicts are twofold, 
 not only is the morale of the class lowered, but the whole 
 tone of thought in connection with pauperism itself be- 
 comes insensibly changed. It is impossible to feel the 
 same pitying contempt for those who are driven on to the 
 parish by the mere badness of trade, as we should feel for 
 the idle and dissolute, who sink by their own want of 
 principle. A feeling of commiseration, which is naturally 
 awakened for the hard working man, overcome by circum- 
 stances, is thus gradually extended to the whole of the 
 pauper class, and is aided by the utter impossibility of 
 discriminating one from the other. Under these circum- 
 stances, and if long enough continued, the whole character 
 of pauperism will change ; and the brand of the pauper — 
 in its present meaning — will pass away. 
 
 The gravity of this danger it is impossible to deny, and 
 it is still further increased by the broad fact that we have in 
 the midst of us a permanent population of more than one 
 million who receive aid, and who live on from year to year, 
 acknowledged by us, as an integral part of our national life. 
 
 i
 
 114 PAUPERISM 
 
 It is impossible to believe that such a proportion of our popu- 
 lation can permanently exist as paupers, without the moral 
 influence of such a position eventually reacting upon our 
 own thought. Such a result is already beginning to manifest 
 itself in the criticisms of some portions of our daily press ; 
 and if this influence be strengthened by the element of 
 misfortune now furnished by slackness of trade, we may 
 anticipate a large development of the feeling. If the 
 opinion but once gains firm hold, that pauperism is an evil 
 to which the honest and hard working are equally liable 
 with the careless and improvident, the check that is now 
 imposed by a sense of self respect will exist no longer. 
 The inevitable entails no disgrace : and the destitution that 
 springs from causes we are powerless to control, brings no 
 shame. 
 
 Amongst the other difficulties that surround pauperism, 
 there is one that springs from the existence of a purely 
 pauper class, those who are born from and belong to what 
 may be called the pauper blood. There is no fact in 
 physiology better established than the one which teaches 
 that like produces like, the pauper begets the pauper, the 
 taint, be it what it may, that runs in the blood, appears 
 and reappears in spite of all training and all circumstances ; 
 manifesting itself time after time under conditions where it 
 would be least looked for ; exhibiting all the qualities of in- 
 competence and recklessness ; and the pauper, ever drifting 
 back to the parish, quietly submits to his condition, and 
 accepts it with contentment. This class is well known to 
 all guardians, and may be regarded as the true pauper type. 
 In striking contrast to this are the cases that from time to 
 time occur where the child of a brave man's nature, nur- 
 tured though it may be in the very hot bed of pauperism, 
 shows, as the force of life gains upon him, the thirst for 
 freedom, and the willingness to maintain himself by
 
 PAUPERISM. 115 
 
 labour; the typical child of the pauper makes his effort by 
 the mere force of education, and, when these conditions are 
 not all in his favour, gradually sinks back into the depths 
 from which he had emerged. The importance of this portion 
 of the question comes more clearly before us when we 
 remember the large number of children that are born in 
 the workhouse. 
 
 It is needless to sav that a large number of these children 
 are illegitimate. Born under such conditions, and reared 
 amidst paupers, what is more natural than that the taint 
 of the mother should reappear in the child? If the evil 
 of indiscriminate alms-giving creates mendicity, what is the 
 probability but that pauper children, reared as they are 
 and passing out into life under the circumstances that created 
 the first taint, must, sooner or later, return to the work- 
 house ? The facts are so ; for it is well known that a 
 large number of pauper born children eventually come upon 
 the rates. 
 
 Many see the outlet to this difficulty in the force of a 
 larger education ; but what education is so strong as the 
 education of habit ? the teaching from books, great as it 
 undeniably is, cannot compete with the teaching of facts, 
 and the first knowledge of a pauper child is the fact that he 
 is a pauper amid paupers. The atmosphere that belongs to 
 the outside world has no existence for him ; the fierce play 
 of individual energy that belongs to our struggling life 
 comes to the pauper child only when he moves out from the 
 system of which he is a unit, to take his place in the world. 
 And the training that had reared him, considerate as it 
 may have been, is still the training associated with pauper 
 thought and not the one best fitted to give him that 
 streno-th to strujnrle with those difficulties which are in- 
 separable from his position. Some attempts have been made 
 to meet this difficulty by the introduction of a system of 
 
 i 2
 
 116 PAUPERISM. 
 
 " farming' out," based on the idea that the teachings of life 
 are more soundly inculcated by the children being reared 
 amongst that class to which they naturally belong and to 
 which they must revert when they have to earn their own 
 bread. This system promises well, the one great advantage 
 being that the child is brought up free from pauper asso- 
 ciation. But the difficulty connected with our pauper 
 children is still increased by the tendency that exists to 
 teach them the usual handicraft and trades, whilst skilled 
 workmen are already in large excess, the consequence is, 
 that their first start in life is hampered by the difficulties, 
 inseparable from such a set of circumstances. Robust 
 natures may struggle through, but feebler natures will 
 sink back to the Union. It has therefore been urged 
 that it would be wise to bring up some portion of pauper 
 children to a knowledge of agricultural pursuits, with a 
 distinct idea that their future lot will be best secured by 
 emigration. 
 
 There is no doubt that the question of how to rear pauper 
 children forms one large element of the responsibility of 
 parishes, but, great as that responsibility is, it does not 
 end there ; the difficulty that presents itself in the future 
 is one almost equally as great, for it is impossible to 
 avoid, and it is senseless to slur over, the ever recurring 
 question, how are they to live when they arrive at maturity? 
 No doubt exists that every home occupation is full even to 
 overflowing, and it is equally true that in every branch of 
 trade the effort that is necessary to make a livelihood is at all 
 times very great. How then are we to meet the position ? 
 The answer clearly is, to place the children in circumstances 
 where a demand for labour exists, and where the largest 
 advantages are offered for their future, both morally and 
 physically, and there is no opening so befitting as that of 
 emigration to our colonies.
 
 PAUPERISM. 117 
 
 Those who see in emigration a great means of lifting up 
 our status as a people, and those who see in the same 
 course of action an utter wasting of our strength, yet cordially 
 concur in the testimony that skilled manufacturing labour in 
 all our colonies is in excess ; and all equally agree that the 
 skill of the farm servant and husbandman is in demand. This 
 one fact would seem to point out the wisdom of dealing with 
 pauper children, by recognising that the colonies are their 
 natural home, and by giving them such an education and 
 trainng as will fit them for an employment for which the 
 demand not only exists in the present, but will be much 
 larger in the future. The objection that exists to the 
 emigration of pauper adults does not exist to that of pauper 
 children ; the colonies absolutely reject the one, but would 
 be willing to receive the other ; and if, when children, these 
 paupers be removed to fresh scenes, and planted amid fresh 
 influences — if placed where the teaching to rich and poor 
 is, — Help Yourself — the profound value of such circum- 
 stances it is impossible to over estimate. It may be urged 
 that the expense would be unduly large, and one that a 
 parish has no right to undertake ; but it is exceedingly doubt- 
 ful whether the cost would be at all equal to the permanent 
 drain now made upon the ratepayers by the continuous call 
 for the support of those who could support themselves. But 
 entirely beyond all this, there rises the broad question whether 
 pauperism cannot fairly claim government assistance for such 
 a purpose. Such a concession would not be very large, nor 
 is there much probability it would be refused, if the question 
 were fairly brought forward. 
 
 We have now arrived at the point where emigration 
 rises to the surface, and where a series of causes combine 
 to point out its value ; but we have yet to trace out the 
 influence that mass emigration has had upon pauperism 
 itself, as illustrated by our statistical returns. The condition
 
 118 PAUPERISM. 
 
 of Ireland after the famine affords us this opportunity, and 
 it affords it also, under circumstances exceptionally clear, 
 and the teaching thus yielded is both marked and decisive. 
 At the time of the famine, in 1846, the numbers were 
 enormously large, but no returns were taken, the first 
 being those in 1849, at which time a large reduction of 
 the pauper population had already taken place, through the 
 influence of state-aided emigration. 
 
 
 Paupers. 
 
 Population. 
 
 1849 
 
 620,747 
 
 7,256,314 
 
 1850 
 
 307,970 
 
 6,877,542 
 
 1851 
 
 209,187 
 
 6,514,473 
 
 1852 
 
 171,418 
 
 6,336,889 
 
 1853 
 
 141,822 
 
 6,198,984 
 
 1854 
 
 104,604 
 
 6,083,183 
 
 1855 
 
 85,296 
 
 6,014,665 
 
 1856 
 
 72,247 
 
 5,972,851 
 
 1857 
 
 55,183 
 
 5,919,454 
 
 1858 
 
 49,308 
 
 5,899,814 
 
 It will be noticed that year by year the population de- 
 creased, and pauperism decreased in proportion. In ten 
 years the mass emigration from Ireland had the effect of 
 reducing the number on her pauper roll from 620,747 to 
 49,308, and the reduced number ma}^ be considered about 
 the normal proportion that pauperism bears to her popu- 
 lation, for since that date, with very slight variations, the 
 numbers have remained the same. We have, therefore, 
 this one fact, that in Ireland the effect of her great emigra- 
 tion has been to reduce her pauper population to one -twelfth 
 of what it was, and to keep it at that position. This 
 will be still further enforced by a comparison between the 
 two countries. At the present moment, population for popu- 
 lation, there are five times as many paupers in England as
 
 PAUPERISM 119 
 
 there are in Ireland. In England the proportion is nearly 
 
 1 in 20, in Ireland nearly 1 in 100 : 
 
 1868 Population. Paupers. 
 
 England and Wales 21,649,377 - 1,034,823 
 
 Ireland - - 5,532,243 - 56,663 
 
 One fact connected with Irish emigration, and the 
 influence it has had upon pauperism, it is necessary to 
 point cut. The Irish emigrate in families — men, women, 
 and children, old and young, all go together; whilst in 
 England, the very opposite is the case At the present 
 time English emigrants are represented by the youngest 
 and most energetic portion of the population, — those who 
 have sufficient foresight and sufficient courage to dare all 
 risks, and seek to found a home for themselves elsewhere. 
 They go alone ; the ties of kinship, which form so strong 
 a trait in Irish character, has little or no existence amongst 
 this portion of our population, and the result is, they leave 
 behind the aged and the feeble, who have to shift for 
 themselves or come upon the rates. This difference in the 
 class of emigration from the two countries goes far to 
 explain the cause of the existence of one portion of our 
 pauperism, — those who cannot help themselves — and to 
 indicate how it might be avoided. It seems difficult to 
 believe that we shall be content to allow pauperism 
 the same latitude in the future as we have allowed it in 
 the past. It seems still more difficult to believe that the 
 power of emigration can longer be ignored as a means of 
 reducing within moderate limits the great incubus of our 
 pauper population. It is not intended to urge that the 
 same amount of emigration is necessary for England as 
 was necessary for Ireland, but the lesson is best taken at its 
 worth, be the teaching what it ma} T . 
 
 The question of emigration, as bearing upon pauperism 
 and destitution generally, was discussed in connection with
 
 120 PAUPERISM. 
 
 Lord Houghton's motion in the House of Peers, and the 
 opinions enunciated by men eminent alike by their ability 
 and position was distinctly opposed to the furtherance of 
 emigration even as a means of relieving the labour market. 
 Lord Overstone said, " He wished their lordships to consider 
 " seriously what was the evidence that this country was in 
 " such a condition as to require that we should resort to an 
 " extensive system of emigration. In his opinion all the 
 " elementary principles which affect the social condition of a 
 " country told a very different tale from that with which the 
 " noble lord who brought forward the question sought to im- 
 " press the House. He recollected that a few years ago the 
 " noble earl, who was at the head of the Government, had said 
 " to him, with a tone of surprise, that an eminent financial 
 " authority had told him that our annual savings amounted to 
 "£75,000,000, and had asked him if he believed the state- 
 " ment to be correct. His answer was that he would have 
 " stated the amount at a much higher figure, and subsequently 
 " he had occasion to notice that all the ablest statisticians of 
 "the country had put its accumulation of capital at some- 
 " thing like £150,000,000 a year. Now, the capital of a 
 " nation was its labour fund, and yet, with the enormous 
 " accumulation of capital which he had just mentioned, we 
 " were told that we must resort to every means in our power 
 " for exporting our labour. . . There were two main causes 
 " of distress and want of employment. First of all there was 
 " what he might term local congestion, by which certain classes 
 "in particular parts of the country were thrown out of work. 
 " . . . . Another cause of distress was the periodically 
 " recurring causes of commercial crisises ; but he had always 
 " maintained such events were the seed of expanding pros- 
 " perity in the future." Earl Grey, after complimenting Lord 
 Overstone, said, "He entirely concurred with him in believing 
 " that the country was not, in the ordinary sense of the word,
 
 PAUPERISM. 121 
 
 " over peopled. There was no excess of population beyond 
 " what the country was well able to bear. . . . He niain- 
 " tained that to reduce the numbers of our working population 
 "would be to take away the very sinews and strength of the 
 " country." The Earl of Carnarvon followed in the same 
 strain. These opinions have been quoted, not because of their 
 force of thought, or accuracy of statement, but because they 
 were found sufficient to silence the discussion, being considered 
 absolutely conclusive by the House of Peers, Yet what in 
 reality are the reasonings that carry so much weight, and 
 what are the evidences advanced in support of the reasoning ? 
 The arguments advanced by Lord Overstone were the only 
 ones in which any attempt was made to bring the subject 
 home to ordinary minds, by appealing to plain facts and 
 acknowledged principles, and it is worth while, not only on 
 account of the gravity of the question itself, but also on 
 account of the eminent position held by Lord Overstone, 
 to examine carefully the general reasoning advanced by that 
 nobleman in support of his assertion that there is no necessity 
 for large emigration. Reduced to brief phraseology, the case 
 may be stated as follows : — 
 
 1st. — That destitution was partial, being- due to local 
 
 congestion of trade, which would right itself. 
 2nd. — That our present depression was due to an ordinary 
 commercial crisis, which, instead of being an evil, 
 might be regarded as the condition from which would 
 spring increased prosperity. 
 3rd. — That the profits of the country, formed the labour 
 fund of the country, and as our profits were equal to 
 150 millions per annum, it was impassible to regard 
 our present position in any other light than a mere 
 passing disarrangement. 
 With regard to the first, if there be any facts clear, they 
 are those that point out the very opposite of the position to
 
 122 PAUPERISM. 
 
 that laid down; for instead of depression being merely local, 
 it exists, more or less, all over the country and the cases 
 of activity of trade are not only local and exceptional, 
 but due to very special causes; the evidence of these facts 
 are to be met with in the general discussion throughout the 
 whole of the press, in the demand for free emigration and 
 in the great rise in our pauper returns. 
 
 With regard to the second point, that the present 
 is a mere commercial crisis due to over speculation, the 
 answer is, that there is no case in our past commercial 
 history, where the stagnation from a commercial crisis 
 has been equal to that of the last four years, and this stagna- 
 tion has existed in the face of an export trade, that is to-day, 
 very much larger than it was ten years ago ; our commer- 
 cial panic produced large stagnation, but the endeavour to 
 explain a series of compound causes by one passing influence 
 fails, not because the principle itself is not true, but because 
 it is only a small part of the truth. 
 
 No mistake is greater than that which assumes that mere 
 commercial panics greatly affect trade ; when any such occur, 
 the speculative few may be injured, but the real trade of the 
 world remains substantially unaltered, for the great nations 
 who buy our calicoes neither know of, nor care, for a finan- 
 cial panic ; they eat, drink and are merry, whether it 
 occurs or not ; the power they possess to buy of us, 
 and the power we possess to supply their wants, remain 
 absolutely unchanged by the question of any panic. Beyond 
 this it must be recognised that a commercial crisis is a result 
 not a cause; a result not of over trading but of over produc- 
 tion, and when that occurs in the sense that it occurs to-day, 
 when we can produce not only all the world asks from us, 
 but an amount of manufactured goods very greatly in excess 
 of all possible demands under the existing conditions of life ; 
 we thus have that which we have now, a great commercial
 
 PAUPERISM. 123 
 
 crisis, permanent depression and long continued want. It 
 is therefore unreal to explain a great phenomenon, like 
 that of the present condition of our country, by reference 
 to a commercial crisis that passed oyer our commerce nearly 
 four years ago. The explanation is, the power of production 
 is greater than the power of consumption. 
 
 Another point to which Lord Overstone refers, and on 
 which he lays great stress, is, that as the profits of a 
 country form its labour fund, and as our profits are 
 enormously large, the demand for labour in our country 
 must increase in like proportion. It seems very neces- 
 sary to point out the grave error that runs throughout the 
 whole of this reasoning. The assumption that labour will 
 increase in proportion to our profits, is not only not correct 
 but is opposed by the most common -place facts. It is 
 quite true that profits do really form the labour fund of a 
 country ; but it is even more emphatically true that our 
 country has long since passed the position when she could 
 make use of her profits for the extension of her trade. The 
 mere fact that on our Stock Exchange loans for every con- 
 ceivable purpose, and from almost all the countries of the 
 world, are not only now, but have for a very long time 
 past, been taken up by our surplus capital seems a final 
 answer to any question about the action of profits upon the 
 labour market. A century ago, a demand existed for money 
 to supply the various requirements incidental to wars, the 
 growth of trade, and the springing up of our commercial 
 relations all over the world ; these causes demanded a large 
 amount of capital, and as a consequence, our profits then 
 formed a large element in the growth of trade; but, 
 when these needs were satisfied, our profits had to find 
 outlets elsewhere, and they have found them in the 
 various foreign markets. Some part of the haziness of 
 thought that surrounds this portion of the question is due
 
 124 PAUPERISM. 
 
 to ideas promulgated by Adam Smith, who pointed out 
 how the realised profits formed a fund which aided labour. 
 This condition was true of his time, but the circumstances 
 are so utterly changed that in our country to-day, instead of 
 capital being required, it is already largely in excess ; the 
 difficulty at the present time being, not to find the capital, 
 but to find the legitimate use for it. When therefore it is 
 gravely in excess, what effect can the mere increase of that 
 excess have upon the demand for labour or the growth of 
 trade? Not only do these facts exist as now stated, but 
 throughout the whole country our manufactories are all built, 
 and the capital necessary to develope and carry them through 
 is already in existence ; what is now required for the present 
 condition of our trade, is not the capital for the construction 
 of larger powers of production, but the demand for the goods 
 which our factories are capable of supplying. We must 
 therefore except as altogether apart from the question any 
 endeavour to connect the influence of profits with any direct 
 increased demand for labour. 
 
 We have now arrived at the point where it is necessary 
 to count up the whole of our results. Putting on one side all 
 the minor questions of mendicity, &c, &c, the evidence points 
 out that probably the largest portion of our pauperism is due, 
 directly or indirectly, to the excess of labour over employ- 
 ment, or in other words, a large portion of our pauperism comes 
 from want of trade ; it still further points out how some 
 portion of the residue of our pauperism is due to causes that 
 are capable of being still further reduced by such means as 
 the emigration of our pauper children, and by aiding in the 
 carrying out a system of family emigration as distinct from 
 individual emigration. We therefore stand face to face with 
 these two conclusions, that a development of our trade will 
 reduce pauperism, and that a large emigration will have the 
 same effect. The question now before us is how can these
 
 PAUPERISM. 125 
 
 two ends be accomplished so as to act with justice to all 
 concerned. 
 
 The first question will be the condition of Emigration in 
 its double aspect as a means for relieving our over loaded 
 labour market, and as a means for developing our export 
 trade ; and, in the second place, the capacity that India 
 possesses for the consumption of our manufactures, in both 
 cases acting as a direct agency for the reduction of our 
 pauperism and the elevation of our people. The con- 
 viction is gaining ground slowly, but definitely, that 
 emigration is one great power for good; and beyond this 
 arises the idea that the country needs not only a great 
 emigration system, but one aided, developed, and controlled 
 by government agency. The question is, how can this be 
 carried through so as to aid the manufacturer, elevate the 
 artisan, and reduce the rates? On its capacity to effect these 
 three things depends the large value of emigration.
 
 126 
 
 CHAPTER VII. 
 
 EMIGRATION. 
 
 Emigration is a great law of the world ; it was so in the 
 past, it is so in the present, and it will be so in the future. 
 Its teaching's come down to us through the dim light of 
 tradition, and the fuller light of history; and above the 
 changes of dynasties or the wreck of empires its course 
 moves on unchanged ; whilst its influence has done more to 
 mould history than the action of warriors or the efforts 
 of statesmen, for it belongs to, springs from, and is a part 
 of, that widest of all wide laws — the growth of population. 
 Men must live : if the country yields an insufficiency of 
 food, the common instinct of self-preservation bids them 
 find a home elsewhere; and hence comes the great principle 
 of emigration. 
 
 The need for its fulfilment is heavy upon us to-day ; 
 with every avenue of trade filled to overflowing, with desti- 
 tution widely spread, with a giant mass of pauperism, with 
 machinery lessening the demand for labour, and with a 
 population whose increase is more than four thousand per 
 week, the question rises before us in a form at once vivid 
 and startling, and points out the gravity and necessity for 
 such a step as large emigration. Many see and accept this 
 conclusion; they recognise with an unwavering distinctness 
 the aid that emigration can bring: towards the solution of our 
 present difficulties, and they crave with a great craving the 
 opportunity to test its capacity. This is evidenced by the 
 huge mass of people who crowd to every emigration meeting, 
 by the testimony of working men's societies and by the
 
 EMIGRATION. 127 
 
 appeals again and again brought forward asking f ur Govern- 
 ment aid. These tendencies force upwards the questions 
 why is aid refused? and in what relation should the colonies 
 stand to the mother country ? 
 
 The reasons for refusing Government aid are not difficult 
 to find. They rest on the assumption that the necessity 
 which would justify such a step does not now exist; they 
 rest still further on a feeling, more or less widely spread, 
 and more or less distinctly enunciated, that the removal of 
 our surplus population would destroy the strength of the 
 country. It should in justice be said that those who hold 
 such opinions are quite removed from the position where 
 the logic of hunger has the opportunity of speaking out. 
 The refusal for aid rests also upon the belief that our trade 
 will revive sufficiently to re-absorb our suplus labour ; and, 
 in the meantime, the compressibility of life, short work, 
 poverty, rates in aid, and the workhouse, will carry the 
 difficulty through in some way or the other, 
 
 By some it may be considered altogether unwise to raise 
 these questions; but from beginning to end the discussion 
 of these subjects is not a matter of free choice, they are 
 forced upon us bj the conditions of life that now surround 
 us. If pauperism did not exist, if destitution did not exist, 
 if starvation did not exist, it would not be idle but it would 
 be wearisome to discuss the huge idea of a continuous mass 
 emigration, fostered and carried through under government 
 superintendence ; but, when the question rises before us in the 
 shape of ever increasing rates and ever increasing misery, 
 and when it is pressed still closer home by the mutterings 
 of socialism, and by open air discussions as to who are the 
 rightful owners of the land, it is at once lifted out of the 
 ordinary conditions of political life into that status when it 
 must be dealt with, whether we will or no. 
 
 Let us suppose that Government aid be refused, let us
 
 128 EMIGRATION. 
 
 still further suppose that private aid is lavish, and through it 
 an organization is brought into being to remove some portion 
 of our surplus population; such a step can only temporise 
 with the evil, and a year or two later it will have assumed a 
 still greater proportion. The actual growth of our population 
 for which there is no work and no prospect of work, is 
 220,000 per annum ; can private aid grapple, or perma- 
 nently deal with a problem so great as this ? Beyond this it 
 must be remembered that mere emigration, that is, the mere 
 removal of the surplus population from our own shores to 
 that of any other shore, will not solve the problem. Sooner 
 or later such a course would produce evils, almost as great 
 as those we now seek to remedy, at the points where our own 
 people were landed : and we should thus not be grappling with 
 the difficulty itself, but simply shifting it on to other places. 
 It will be quite clear that any great mass of emigration directed 
 towards any of our colonies, without previous provision being 
 made for their reception, would eventually entail great destitu- 
 tion and misery. Besides this, it is obvious that such a course 
 of action could not permanently maintain itself, for foreign 
 countries and our colonies would very vigorously object to 
 being treated in any such manner. We must therefore be 
 prepared to face the absolute condition of the question that 
 emigration has the double phase: the removal of our surplus 
 population from our own shores, and the more or less direct 
 preparation for their reception elsewhere. And the probability 
 would appear to be, that we must ultimately accept a distinct 
 system of colonization. 
 
 There are some persons, although it may be assumed 
 not many, who will wrap themselves up in their own self- 
 sufficient wealth and affect to ignore the gravity of our present 
 position. Let them not be mistaken. The warning notes of 
 danger rise high in the air and challenge the whole condition 
 of our present social life, and if less evident are none the less
 
 EMIGRATION. 120 
 
 real. Those, who know the under current must thoroughly, 
 know, that discontent is deep, stirring and wide-spread, and 
 that the angry outbreak, which now and then rises to the sur- 
 face, is but the spark that springs from the fire of sedition 
 which smoulders below. One thing is quite certain, men are 
 not prepared to starve, and rates in aid will scarcely silence 
 the awkward questions concerning the land which will be 
 madly discussed, when want drives the teaching home. What 
 those questions are, whither they tend and what they teach, 
 may be gathered from open air speeches and socialistic 
 discussions ; whether right or wrong, they exist and will 
 gain force, point and consistency from the pressure of 
 want. 
 
 Emigration would modify, if not remove, all this. Our 
 people are patient, hard working and long suffering ; only 
 show them how they can earn their bread, and hot political 
 discussions will sink to the regularity and temperance of 
 House of Commons debates. Let the contrary take place, 
 let the recognition sink into the minds of the people, that 
 political crotchets are considered of more importance than the 
 lives or well being of the people themselves, and the educa- 
 tion of political thought will grow with strange rapidity ; no 
 teacher like hunger and no harvest time of sedition so prolific 
 as that of idleness and want. But beyond all this their rises 
 the question, why should aid be refused? The logic that sees 
 strength in myriads of people even though pauperised and 
 starving, and would chain a population to our shores for 
 which we have neither need nor work, is so utterly puerile 
 that it needs no answer. The question stands up, clearly 
 and distinctly in its two phases; on the one side there is 
 hunger, desperation and danger, on the other a growing 
 trade, an improving national life and hope for the future. 
 The question is, which shall be chosen, and if chosen how 
 chosen, and in what manner acted upon. 
 
 K
 
 130 EMIGRATION. 
 
 There can be little doubt which course will eventually be 
 chosen ; the press of life thickens every day, and the pressure 
 of thought evolves more and more vividly the elements of the 
 great problem of our future, and so soon as men grasp clearly 
 and fixedly the broad fact that mass emigration is a great 
 necessity, all the consequences that flow from that position 
 will follow very rapidly ; but it would appear to be wise before 
 such a time arrives to recognise clearly what it is that has to 
 be done. The first requirement that stands out is the neces- 
 sity for creating a system of free passage to our colonies by 
 Government aid ; and the second requirement is, distinct 
 arrangements with our various colonial authorities so as to 
 ensure work to emigrants when they arrive at their various 
 destinations. Around these two points a number of questions 
 revolve, which it will be wise to examine. 
 
 One objection may, and probably will be, urged against 
 such an idea. It will be distinctly said that it is not the 
 place of Government to undertake any such arrangements, 
 for by the ordinary law of supply and demand, things will 
 right themselves. But what is meant by supply and de- 
 mand ? There are cases that from time to time rise to the 
 surface where, from sheer pressure of want, all energy, 
 all forethought, all hope is more or less crushed out. It 
 may be asked, How can such people find for themselves a 
 home elsewhere ? How can those who know not where the 
 bread of to-morrow is to be found find means to pay for 
 emigration ? They may be honest, willing, and hardworking, 
 but they are powerless ; they are so utterly beaten by circum- 
 stances, that there is no possibility of their being lifted up but 
 by help from without. Leave them where they are, and permit 
 the law of supply and demand to work its own results, and 
 what will follow? Starvation, mendicity, and the workhouse. 
 What they need is aid to lift them up and to place them where 
 the struggle for life is less bitter. The argument that applies
 
 EMIGRATION. 181 
 
 to the lowest of this class will, with modification, apply also to 
 the highest. Many an artisan may possess the power to pay 
 for his own passage to another country, but has no means to 
 pay for those who belong to him, and if he avails himself of 
 the advantages of emigration, he must go alone, and leave 
 his wife and children as a burden to the parish. It is for 
 these reasons we must recognise that aid is so imperatively 
 needed ; those who have the means and the will to emigrate 
 need no consideration ; they ask no questions, seek no 
 favours, and carry their energy where they will. But for 
 those who are so beaten down as to be utterly helpless, those 
 who have no hope, no means, and no friends, to all such 
 state aid must be given if they are to emigrate at all. 
 
 The question naturally arises, if aid be given, in what 
 form should it be given, and with what intentions. It 
 has been suggested by Lord Carnarvon that, however the 
 problem may be worked out, the most prudent arrangement 
 that is open to us is by means of loans to our colonial 
 governments. Such a course seems at once simple and 
 wise ; but it will be necessary that a more decisive state- 
 ment of the case should exist. If money be lent to our 
 colonial governments it would appear necessary that it should 
 be lent for a three-fold purpose : first, the benefit of the 
 mother-country : by relieving the overloaded labour market, 
 freeing us from some portion of our destitution and pauperism, 
 and for the purpose of developing our commerce. In the 
 second place, the benefit to the colonies by the influx of 
 labour, the means for whose payment and use would be 
 guaranteed by the money lent by the Home Government ; 
 and, in the third place, the benefit to the emigrant by the 
 opening up of a new field for labour, in which the ad- 
 vantages would be all in favour of those who work. 
 
 It would seem only reasonable that any scheme of emigra- 
 tion should combine all these results, and also that the 
 
 k 2
 
 132 EMIGRATION. 
 
 reasons on which the whole movement is based should be so 
 clear that all persons could understand them. Differences of 
 opinion will be sure to exist, but, in proportion as the absolute 
 necessity of emigration becomes more and more evident, the 
 difference will be that of detail, and not that of principle. 
 It is also reasonable to recognise that, as England will have 
 to bear the first brunt of the burden connected with any 
 emigration scheme, the value the movement can have to 
 her position and to her commerce should stand clearly in the 
 foreground. The growth of our commerce is to ourselves an 
 unconditional necessity, and the power that emigration 
 posseses to effect this end is only beginning to be recognised 
 even by those who take the largest interest in these questions. 
 But, keeping these points in view, let us trace the idea 
 through. 
 
 The great field of enterprise that is open to us, in connec- 
 tion with a widely spread and carefully nurtured system of 
 emigration, it is almost impossible to realize, and the part 
 that it is capable of playing in our future commerce has 
 scarcely attracted the attention it deserves. The vast area of 
 our colonial empire is to-day practically untouched, myriads 
 of acres of land lying waste and useless, the natural mines 
 of wealth of our future as soon as they are brought into use. 
 The capacity they possess to feed an enormous population is 
 recognised as an abstract fact — but very little more, and they 
 are only considered in this sense when the prospect of wide- 
 spread destitution forces the question to the surface, as is the 
 case at the present time; but this mode of viewing the subject 
 is at once spasmodic and fragmentary, and shuts out the con- 
 dition of value that our colonies can be made to bear to our 
 future commerce. 
 
 At the present time our colonies buy from us a large 
 portion of our exports, about one quarter of the whole, and 
 there is no substantial reason why they should not be made
 
 EMIGRATION. 133 
 
 customers to an amount equal to the total of our present 
 export trade with the entire world. This assertion may 
 at first sight appear unreasonable, but let us examine the 
 whole conditions of the question. At the present moment 
 the probable total of our colonial population — apart from 
 India— is about ten millions of people, and they are spread 
 over a space equal to one quarter of the globe, located 
 on the mere borders of our colonial possessions. It has 
 hitherto been found that as these populations increase, either 
 by the natural growth of population or by the increase 
 of emigration, our exports increase in proportion, being 
 checked only by high tariffs and the growth of their own 
 manufactures, The result, therefore, resolves itself into 
 this : that so soon as our colonial population has increased 
 fourfold we may anticipate our exports will have increased in 
 like rates. An illustration of this capacity for absorbing our 
 exports was given by Australia at the time of the discovery 
 of gold ; a second was given at the time of the Californian 
 gold fever ; and it has already been pointed out in the 
 chapter on the Growth of Trade, that there is a distinct 
 connection between the mass of our emigration and the 
 increase of our exports. 
 
 The reasons for this being so are very large. All new 
 countries must purchase their manufactured goods from 
 Europe or America and will continue to do so until they 
 erect manufactories of their own. It is therefore obvious 
 that the direct action of emigration is to increase our ex- 
 port trade. We have also to remember that the land which 
 is valueless, whilst it remains unfilled, creates wealth by 
 the action of labour ; and the ploughman, who is a burden 
 on his parish in Hertfordshire or Somersetshire, or who 
 migrates to the nearest market town to swell still further the 
 poor rates there, rises into position and use in those parts 
 of the world where the land reouires his labour, and, as he
 
 134 EMIGRATION. 
 
 thus rises in life he always becomes a larger pnrchaser of 
 •our home manufactures. The first essential of all trading' 
 is the capacity to pay for what is bought, and this power of 
 payment, in any large sense of the term, must come out 
 of the land, and the only way it can come out of the land 
 is by work. The result that follows is, that the first 
 element in creating an export trade is to place the labour 
 that is useless at home on the land that is useless in other 
 parts of the empire. We stand to-day in the condition when 
 the balance between agriculture and manufacture has been 
 disturbed, and when we can produce more manufactured 
 than we can use and less food than we can eat ; the effort 
 must therefore now be made to re-establish the balance, by 
 fostering a development of our agricultural power through a 
 great emigration to our colonies. 
 
 The power of emigration as a means of developing our 
 export trade can scarcely be overestimated ; of what value 
 are the exceeding poor to our manufacturers whilst they 
 remain at home ? What can be the consumption of English 
 manufactured goods by that class, whose life is but one step 
 above the savage? What can be the demand whilst care and 
 want are the elements of life amongst a large portion of our 
 English artisan class? And on the other hand, who shall 
 place limits to their power of consumption when settled in 
 other lands, where their every days toil not only produces 
 for them the means to live, but the power of accumulating 
 wealth to purchase whatever their inclination dictates ? In 
 this sense the growth of our population is a profound good for 
 the manufacturing interest, if it be only properly utilized. 
 
 But looking at the subject from this point of view, the 
 necessity for care and judgment in carrying the arrangement 
 out in its entirety, becomes only the more apparent. It is 
 quite true that our past emigration has fostered our export 
 trade, both rapidly and decisively ; but, that emigration was
 
 EMIGRATION. 135 
 
 entirely different, both in class and character, from a free 
 emigration carried out by Government aid; and the con- 
 ditions that would evolve success and prosperity in the one 
 case, might produce care and destitution in the other. We 
 have therefore to consider what plan will be necessary to 
 produce satisfactory results under the proposed conditions. 
 
 It is quite obvious that no arrangement can be made with 
 the shifting bulk of poverty and semi-poverty to which the 
 thought connected with Government aid naturally turns ; 
 it is equally impossible that any satisfactory arrangement 
 could be made through the existing channels of emigration 
 agency ; the risk would be too great, and the difficulties 
 too large. We must, therefore, turn to the assumption that 
 satisfactory arrangements can be made through our various 
 colonial governments. In order that such a supposition may 
 not seem extravagant, let us remember what is proposed to 
 be done, and what is the point aimed at. In the first place it 
 is quite clear that no arrangement can be suggested to a 
 colony that is not a direct benefit to itself, but it must at the 
 same time be remembered that there is no benefit so direct 
 and so unequivocally accepted as that of emigration, pro- 
 viding it be of the class required. We, therefore, start with 
 the groundwork sound : the colonies want that which we are 
 willing to give viz., population. The circumstances just now 
 are peculiarly in favour of any arrangement being readily 
 carried out ; the best evidence of this is the desire, broadly 
 and strongly expressed by the colonists themselves, for a 
 more distinct and intimate union with England, beyond this, 
 no condition would tend so absolutely to bind ourselves and 
 our colonies together, as a great emigration carried out by 
 arrangements between the colonies and the mother country. 
 We have, therefore, two points clear: one is the desire of the 
 colonies for our emigrants, and the other is the desire for a 
 more intimate alliance with ourselves. It is nut necessary
 
 136 EMIGRATION. 
 
 to analyse the motives, or the conditions on which the last is 
 based. It may be the desire, as has been very openly 
 expressed, to have some portion of our army ready to do 
 their righting ; or it may be the consciousness that the 
 colonies gain in dignity by closer association ; but, be it 
 what it may, it answers all purposes, so long as the fact 
 is so. We may, therefore, assume that with these feelings in 
 existence, but little difficulty would be experienced in work- 
 ing through an arrangement with our colonies to receive, on 
 equitable terms, our surplus population. 
 
 There are two distinct elements in the question of Emigra- 
 tion which it is necessary to clear up before we proceed further: 
 the one is, the necessity that exists on our part to relieve 
 ourselves of our surplus population, and the other is the ad- 
 vantage that our surplus population would be to our colonies. 
 This last point has been considered so important by some of 
 the writers in the public press, as to induce them to discuss 
 the probability that the colonies would undertake the whole 
 responsibility of the Emigration movement, and so relieve us 
 from all further trouble. Putting on one side our own 
 position and our own necessities, it is not by any means clear 
 that our colonies would be at all disposed to take any such 
 steps. It is quite true that our surplus population would be 
 of enormous advantage to them, but it must be remembered 
 that our colonies are growing rapidly by their own natural 
 increase of population and by that portion of emigration which 
 now exists, and although large emigration would be to them 
 a great good and a great pecuniary advantage, it is not 
 an absolute necessity. It must also be remembered that 
 there is no special reason why the colonies should do now 
 that which they have hitherto left undone. In the past, as 
 well as in the present, it has always been in the power of 
 the colonies to grant sums of money for free emigration 
 if they had so chosen, but the advantages derivable by
 
 EMIGRATION. 137 
 
 the colonies from such a course has never been sufficiently 
 decisive to induce them to adopt it ; and the temptations 
 to such a step at the present time are naturally diminished in 
 proportion as our necessities become more apparent. There 
 are, also, important reasons on the other side why England 
 should desire, and why it would be wise, that the mother- 
 country should be the active agent in so important a 
 matter. In the first place it will permit us the better to 
 consult our own necessities, so far as excess of popula- 
 tion is concerned ; and, in the second place, it will the 
 better enable us to discuss those tariff relations which 
 ought to form so essential an element in any Govern- 
 ment plan. The probabilities would therefore appear to be 
 greatly in favour of the assumption that action must be taken 
 by the Home Government if emigration is to be efficiently 
 carried through ; under such circumstances the question will 
 again be as to how the money is to be employed, and how 
 it is to be repaid. In order that the idea of Government 
 emigration may be understood, it is suggested — 
 
 1st. — That emigration should, as a final resource, be 
 absolutely free so far as immediate payment was 
 concerned. 
 
 2nd. — That emigration should take place, as far as prac- 
 ticable, by families. 
 
 3rd. — That each emigrant should be entitled to a certain 
 area of land for the purposes of cultivation, subject 
 to Government control until the emigration money 
 be repaid. 
 
 4th. — That each emigrant should bind himself to repay, 
 to our own or the Colonial Government, the money 
 advanced for his transit, as well as any expense 
 incidental to his arrival in the colonies.
 
 138 EMIGRATION. 
 
 5th. — That such bond should be a first charge upon the 
 land assigned to the emigrant. 
 
 6th. — That all money so advanced should bear interest at 
 the rate of 3 per cent, per annum. 
 
 7th. — That all intending emigrants should be chosen by 
 fitness, character, &c, &c, and those who could 
 deposit a portion of their passage money to have the 
 preference. 
 
 Assuming that the funds are forthcoming from the Im- 
 perial Government, as a loan at 3 per cent., to the Colonial 
 Government, it may be asked, What is required from the 
 Colonial Government ? The answer is, that they shall make 
 arrangements to find the emigrants work. Such an under- 
 taking would entail considerable care and forethought, but 
 ought not to present grave difficulty. In an old country 
 where all the conditions and all the more marked require- 
 ments of life are already perfect, the difficulty of finding work 
 fer new hands is always very large, but all the points that 
 tell against an old country tell in favour of a new one. In 
 England, for example, all our great public works are finished, 
 in Canada and Australia most of the great public works have 
 yet to be carried out ; the land has to be cleared and tilled, 
 roads to be made, houses to be built, and all the conditions of 
 life that are complete at home have still to be perfected in 
 our colonies, so that a vast field of labour lies open before 
 them. But it must not be ignored that to prevent the 
 labour from being too dense at any one place supervision 
 and foresight is an absolute and unconditional necessity. 
 So long as emigration is left to kself, the numbers of 
 emigrants hold themselves in check, by the difficulties 
 inseparable from emigration itself, and b} T the uncertain- 
 ties that surround it; but, so soon as emigration becomes 
 exceedingly easy, the numbers who will leave our shores
 
 EMIGRATION. 189 
 
 will be so great as to necessitate some previous organization 
 at the point of their destination, in order to avoid famine, 
 disease, and want. This portion of duty should belong of 
 right to the Colonial Government. 
 
 Assuming that the Colonial Government would be willing 
 to undertake the responsibility, and, still further, to guarantee 
 the interest and repayment of the money advanced, because 
 of the obvious advantages connected with a large emigration 
 movement directed towards their own shores, it may fairly be 
 asked how can the Colonial Government see its way to secure 
 the repayment of its own money ? The answer is, that the 
 labour that goes into the land is inalienable security. The 
 land that is valueless whilst it was untilled, springs into value 
 the moment the labour is placed on it, and we thus, by the 
 mere action of labour, create value and security at the same 
 time. This would be true with regard to all our colonies, but 
 it has often been asserted, with reference to Canada, that there 
 exists a constant tendency on the part of all emigrants, when 
 they reach that country, to find greater temptations in the 
 United States, and gradually re-emigrate there. It is, there- 
 fore, assumed as a probability that some such difficulty 
 would belong to any large system of emigration to that 
 colony : it may be answered, that no great undertaking 
 can be carried on, involving the varying feelings and interest 
 that belong to a great mass of people, without some such 
 condition being possible. But the probability becomes ex- 
 ceedingly limited if the emigration takes place by families 
 instead of by individuals. There is the unwritten law of life 
 which binds men to their homes and their families, and those 
 who would hesitate to desert their children in England, would 
 exhibit the same hesitation in Canada ; the bonds of feeling 
 are strong enough to hold men under temptations far greater 
 than this. 
 
 If, in addition to this, it becomes clear to the colonist
 
 140 EMIGRATION. 
 
 that by his own labour he can win for himself his own 
 home, his own land, and his own independence, all proba- 
 bilities are in favour of his abiding by his agreement. 
 It has been demonstrated again and again that there is no 
 spur so strong as the spur of property, and when a man sees 
 before him the possibility and the probability of realising 
 an absolute independence by his own labour, the temptation 
 to remain where he is becomes overpoweringly great, and 
 under these circumstances and with these prospects before 
 him the labour that he will put on his ground is alike un- 
 stinted and unwavering. It will also be quite obvious that, 
 when a colonist is settled on his land, he is bound by every 
 tie to remain where he is, because the fruits of his labonr 
 are in it ; and as the land improves under his efforts, it 
 also improves by that which is not his effort, viz., the mere 
 increase of population ; and thus his capacity to repay the 
 money lent him will grow and his chances of independence 
 will grow in the same proportion. We have, therefore, 
 two securities for the repayment of the money : the one is 
 the man's own individual exertion on the land, and the other 
 is the increased value of the property by the increase of 
 population. Looking, therefore, at the whole case, there does 
 not appear any grave difficulty in carrying out an arrange- 
 ment that would be an aid to the colonies, advantageous to 
 the colonist, and a benefit to ourselves. 
 
 It may be asked, Why should we so specially select our 
 own colonies ? If emigration is to be brought into action, 
 why should we not make use of that plan which is at once 
 the cheapest and most direct, — viz., a free passage to the 
 United States. The answers to this are manifold. In the 
 first place it is exceedingly dubious whether the United States 
 would submit to a permanent continuance of a mass emigra- 
 tion from any country such as is here referred to. The 
 facts connected with New York, and the other great seaboard
 
 EMIGRATION. 141 
 
 cities of America, already point to the existence of a large 
 mass of pauperism, doubtless due to the continuous influx 
 of emigrants. So long as this is the mere action of private 
 will and private enterprise, so long must the United States 
 submit to a state of things which is a temporary evil, but 
 which it cannot alter; but the moment the question passes 
 from that of private action into that of Government arrange- 
 ment, they would have a distinct right to protest, and no 
 doubt such a result would follow so soon as our emigration 
 was found to be more than the ordinary conditions of life in 
 America could readily absorb. It has also been urged that 
 by our aiding the emigration to America, we are in reality 
 building up a great rival. It seems altogether beneath the 
 dignity of our country to express any fear for the growth of 
 the power of the United States, her greatness be it what it 
 may, is in one sense a greatness of our own ; they are our 
 descendants, shoots from a great parent stem; they inherit our 
 language, our literature, and our laws, and they illustrate and 
 enforce the value of those qualities on which we most pride our- 
 selves; but, in the present state of their commercial relations, 
 they have deemed it wise to enforce a tariff on all imported 
 goods, that acts almost as a prohibition of our manufactures. 
 In this course of policy, success is its own justification ; but, 
 placed as England is to-day with an enormous manufacturing 
 power that requires work, with a large population dependent 
 upon its activity, it becomes a first necessity that any 
 state aid that is given to emigration, should be given where 
 the direct and indirect influences are the most decisively in 
 favor of our home manufactures, and these conditions are best 
 fulfilled by aid to our colonies. 
 
 The very magnitude and power of our colonial empire to 
 aid us in our demand for increased commerce and to fulfil 
 all that is required, become more distinct the more closely 
 it is examined. The following facts will illustrate this : —
 
 142 EMIGRATION, 
 
 " Our colonial empire covers about a third of the earth's 
 " surface, and contains nearly a fourth of mankind. Its area 
 " is more than thirty times as extensive, and its population is 
 " more than five times as numerous, as those of the United 
 " Kingdom. It is estimated in the latest accessible official 
 " returns (in which, however, considerable discrepancies are 
 "noticeable) that its area is somewhat under 4,750,000 
 " of sqnare miles, and its population is somewhat over 
 " 155,000,000 of persons. Of this vast dominion about 
 " 1,000,000 square miles are in India, more than 2,500,000 
 " square miles are in Australia, and more than 600,000 
 " square miles are in North America. The population of 
 " British India is nearly 145,000,000, of British North 
 " America nearly 4,500,000, and of Australasia nearly 
 " 1,700,000, Our possessions in the West Indies (including 
 " Tropical America), the Cape (including Kaffraria), and 
 " Ceylon, have together an aggregate area of about 460,000 
 " square miles, and an aggregate population of about 
 " 3,730,000 persons." — Westminster Review, Jan. 1870. 
 
 With a territory as large as that here depicted, embracing 
 every condition of life and every variety of climate, there 
 exists no obstacle to the development of a commerce im- 
 mensely great. Not only this, but our colonies contain 
 all the elements for the building up of a great outlying 
 empire, fostered by the mother country, but controlled by 
 themselves. Under these circumstances, the broad question 
 is, in what relation ought we to stand to our colonies, and in 
 what relation ought our colonies to stand to us ? It would be 
 mere waste of time to discuss the supposition that any set of 
 circumstances would warrant us in endeavouring to guide our 
 colonies by any more intimate imperial machinery than that 
 which at present exists ; whatever may be its value or what- 
 ever may be its failings, colonial representative government 
 is an existing fact, and it would be impossible, even if it were
 
 EMIGRATION. 143 
 
 wise, either to modify or change it. The whole course of 
 events, not- only throughout our colonies but throughout the 
 whole world, points to a freer political thought and freer 
 political action, and any policy that seeks to be permanent 
 must contain within itself the germ of those conditions that 
 will satisfy the needs cf the future. 
 
 There is a mode of viewing our colonial empire which has 
 originated with the idea that it is more trouble than it is 
 worth, and if a country's policy were to be guided by 
 irritability of temper instead of calm common sense, it would 
 be quite possible to conceive conditions which would apologise 
 for such opinions ; but, as events are rapidly developing, the 
 recognition that the enormous power our colonial empire pos- 
 sesses can be readily utilized, both in a monetary and social 
 point of view, we may anticipate a very great change in our 
 existing policy. Viewed in a large sense, our colonial empire 
 may be considered as simply the outlying portions of Great 
 Britain, which for the sake of convenience and economy now 
 govern themselves, and which it would be at once our policy 
 and wisdom to associate intimately with ourselves in our 
 future career. 
 
 It may be difficult to predict the future, but it requires 
 but little foresight to perceive, that our colonial empire must 
 grow both rapidly and continuously. The mere mass of 
 emigration that would flow from our shores would be a cause 
 sufficient for such a result. The question is, how shall it 
 be moulded? Shall it take the impress from our thoughts 
 at home, or shall it grow into whatever form chance dictates? 
 Shall we strive to make our colonies an integral part of the 
 empire, and from which the future affords no reason to antici- 
 pate a separation, or shall we regard an eventual separation 
 as the natural development of the life of a colony ? The 
 answer to these questions will depend upon the mode in which 
 the whole subject is viewed. By those who regard war as the
 
 144 EMIGRATION. 
 
 beginning and end of life, and peace a mere armed neutrality, 
 by them our colonies wiil be considered sources of weakness 
 and danger. But those who look upon war as a system fast 
 dying out, and who see in the future an ever increasing 
 necessity and an ever increasing probability of the permanent 
 maintenance of peace — they will believe that the colonies 
 contain within themselves the true germs of our future 
 strength, ever developing silently the grandeur of our 
 empire ; whilst in the present they can absorb and use 
 that surplus population which now festers in our streets 
 and that surplus capital which is now lying by, waiting 
 for employment. Under such possibilities the relation that 
 we bear to our colonies and that our colonies bear to us 
 becomes of grave importance. If wisely ordered, the whole 
 relationship would become more intimate and more reci- 
 procal year by year, and the little jealousies that now crop 
 up would die out under the spell of mutual benefits, and we 
 should grow together as the units of a great and wide spread- 
 ing people. 
 
 We have now before us the rough outline of what emigra- 
 tion can be made to do. It can be made to release our over- 
 loaded labour market, reduce pauperism, and to help those 
 who cannot help themselves. It can be made to act with 
 enormous power upon the advancement of our commerce, and 
 it can be made to build up with great force the undeveloped 
 powers of our vast empire. All these things are more than 
 possible, they flow naturally from our existing conditions. 
 The question is, shall the effort be made ? Shall emigration 
 be organised and developed on a systematic plan, or shall it 
 be left to drift as ciscumstances may dictate ? Shall it be 
 worked out by private aid, or shall it be a matter of state 
 policy? The answer to these questions is not difficult to 
 foresee : sooner or later the magnitude of the whole subject 
 and the evidence by which it is supported, will force them-
 
 EMIGRATION. 145 
 
 selves so overwhelmingly on men's minds, that state aid 
 in some form will be accepted as an unequivocal necessity. 
 By an instinctive sagacity the working-men themselves feel 
 that emigration is the true panacea for the existing condition 
 of things, for, to use their expressive phraseology, " they 
 are too thick here." It is curious, but none the less true, 
 that the great underlying thoughts that guide national 
 policy often commence at the base of society ; the reason 
 for this is not far to seek : the pressure of necessity 
 forces on men the habit of continuous thought in connection 
 with subjects which are essential to their own well being, 
 and with limited knowledge, limited opportunity', and limited 
 education, they thus seize with an intense force the point 
 that is vital to themselves. It is thus that their opinion has 
 value, it is thus also that they enunciate the necessity for free 
 emigration, for they know their own need, and we may, there- 
 fore, be content to accept the plain common sense and prac- 
 tical thought that points out the permanent value of State 
 aided emigration. Let us now consider the great question of 
 our Indian Empire, and the means by which we can elevate 
 the status of its people and promote the growth of our own 
 manufactures.
 
 ] in 
 
 CHAPTER VIII. 
 
 INDIA. 
 
 From what point of view are we to regard our great Indian 
 Empire? Shall we be content to chronicle the brilliant 
 deeds of Clive, Hastings and Wellesley ? Shall we track out 
 that line of policy by which a company of quiet merchants 
 built up the grandeur of our Indian rule, or shall we turn to 
 the every day conditions of life, and ask: What benefit do 
 we, as a people, derive from that empire, which has been won 
 by the genius, valour and toil of our great men ? The tinsel 
 of governing far reaching dependencies has shrunk into 
 its natural proportions, and we have now reached the point 
 where we no longer claim to measure our strength by the 
 extent of our dominions, whilst it is long since that lacs of 
 rupees formed the reward of successful pillage or atrocious 
 mendacity. The very term — lacs of rupees — awakens in our 
 memories the Begum speech of Sheridan, and the vigorous 
 denunciations of Burke. It recalls from the pages of 
 Macaulay those dramatic paintings of Indian society drawn 
 from the life, whilst his words re-create into being the timid 
 form of the crouching Bengalee ; yet it is by comparing that 
 past with our present, that we are enabled to recognise how 
 fast our scope of thought has changed both in intensity and 
 character, Within a few years our great dependency has 
 passed from the rule of a company of merchants to be welded 
 into the inner life of our empire, and that change recalls the 
 question, of what use is India to us ? We are no longer in 
 the dreamland of poetry and imagery, but living in the midst 
 of a pre-eminently practical age, and we, therefore, again ask 
 of what use is India to us ? Glorious as are the brilliant
 
 INDIA. 147 
 
 scintillations of genius that sparkle over the pathway of 
 history, they are yet mere playthings when the struggle 
 of life deepens in its stern intensity, and when through the 
 mutterings of sorrow there rises the ever recurring question, 
 how are the people to find bread? It is from this point of 
 view that the great value of our Indian Empire can be best 
 estimated, and from this point of view let us see wither it 
 leads. 
 
 The conditions of the climate of India forbid our regard- 
 ing it as the normal home of any portion of our race ; on the 
 hill-side, up the mountain fastnesses and in the Himalayas 
 there may be parts that are suitable to our people, but as a 
 broad whole India belongs to the dark skinned races. But 
 India, with its area of 947,292 square miles and its population 
 of 135,000,000 of people, possesses a capacity for the absorp- 
 tion of our manufactures so enormously great, whilst the result 
 achieved is so infinitely little, that the circumstance challanges 
 our attention. At the present time the total of our export 
 trade to India is a little over 20 millions per annum, this 
 amount ranking with our exports to America or the Hanse 
 Towns. It seems an extravagant thing to say, but there 
 appears no tangible reason why our exports to India should 
 not be equal to our present commerce with the whole of 
 the world; and if they do not become so it will be our own 
 fault. A statement so broad as this requires some facts to 
 justify it, and some explanation of the grounds on which it is 
 founded. Let us place side by side two points, illustrative 
 of the variations in our exports, and note the teaching. 
 Previously to the outbreak of the Indian Mutiny our exports 
 to India amounted to £11,660,714, in the same year our 
 exports to Australia amounted £11,632,524; or in other 
 words, the exports to India and Australia were about equal, 
 whilst the population in India was one hundred times 
 greater than that of Australia, the approximate number 
 
 l2
 
 148 INDIA. 
 
 in both cases being : India, 135,000,000, and Australia, 
 1,350,000. If, therefore, we can so stimulate commerce in 
 India that each individual could take from us one quarter the 
 amount that each individual in Australia now takes, the result 
 would be achieved. 
 
 Since the date of the comparison here instituted India has 
 passed under Imperial rule ; a larger force of Europeans has 
 been stationed in the Indian Empire, railways have been 
 built, and generally more activity infused into Indian life, 
 our exports have doubled themselves and we have, therefore, 
 so far started on the path of working the problem out, but 
 even at the present the amount is so utterly disproportioned 
 both to its area and population, that we are naturally driven 
 to seek the reason why. 
 
 The reasons are not difficult to find, they are expressed 
 in the two great causes — imperfect cultivation and imper- 
 fect communication. It is quite clear that, when a people 
 is pressed by want and subject to famines, when its 
 means for cultivating the land are utterly undeveloped, 
 their power of purchasing our manufactures must be re- 
 duced to the very lowest ebb. It is equally clear that so 
 long as the country has imperfect roads, no large im- 
 provement can take place, for each part will remain more 
 or less isolated and the conditions of trade will be feeble 
 and uncertain. 
 
 No error is more usual than that which associates with 
 India the idea of enormous wealth. The traditions of our 
 early conquests and the memory of our early successes have 
 tended to foster this belief. The barbaric splendour of her 
 princes, the hoarded lacs of rupees and the wonderful precious 
 stones have all tended to distort our view and cause us to 
 consider great wealth as the natural condition of life in 
 India. It is only when men of the world place their 
 experience plainly before us, and when the warnings of
 
 INDIA. 149 
 
 famine, like that which occurred in Orissa, stand clearly out, 
 that we begin to recognise that India is very poor, but, she 
 is poor, whilst she possesses wondrous capacities and contains 
 within herself the elements of a boundless prosperity. In Mr. 
 Chapman's India is the following: — 
 
 " The several topics of the poverty of the people, famines, 
 " and the land-tax may be grouped together, from their 
 " actual or supposed connection with each other. That the 
 " bulk of the population of India is extremely poor is, I 
 " believe, a fact no longer concealed from us by the present 
 " or traditional splendour of its princes, or by the ruinous 
 "magnitude of the armies it formerly maintained. The 
 " consequences of this poverty, and the means of remedying 
 " it, require discussions which do not permit space for inquiry 
 " into its remote history ; but I may go so far as to express 
 " an opinion that it is by no means recently that India has 
 " fallen under this heavy disadvantage. 
 
 " Food, very scanty clothing, and often worse habitations, 
 " constitute at present the chief possessions of the majority of 
 " the Indian growers of cotton : a few hoarded rupees or 
 "jewels, and the means of making family shows, are the 
 ** utmost of their hopes." 
 
 The implements of labor and the general ideas of the 
 people are in perfect harmony with this description, and a few 
 words place before us with almost photographic distinctness 
 this element of life in our Indian Empire. 
 
 " But in Western and Central India there are almost no 
 " machines for raising water ; certainly none moved by 
 " inanimate power. The wheel and pots, actuated by feet 
 " and hands of a man, and the direct pull of bullocks, in rais- 
 " ino; a leathern bucket from a well, seem to be all the devices 
 " in general use. As to the employment of wind or water for 
 " any such purpose, it seems never to have entered the
 
 150 INDIA. 
 
 " imagination of any of the natives ; and a pump is altogether 
 " unknown in the interior except to a few as a curiosity." 
 
 But if this be true as to the ordinary habits of life, still 
 more instructive are the conditions connected with great 
 tracts of country which to-day retain their original character 
 in all their savage wildness. In some cases, one half of the 
 area is cultivated, in others one third, and in some cases one 
 thirtieth, these simple facts go to aid the explanation why we 
 export so little to our Indian Empire. 
 
 In the north-west provinces the total ai'ea assessed was 
 49,150,995 acres, of which 24,177,161 were under cultivation 
 during 1867 — 68. In the Punjaub the area is 106,768 square 
 miles, of which 32,432 are returned as cultivated, 32,780 as 
 culturable, and 39,556 as unculturable. The greater portion 
 of that mentioned as culturable is situated in tracts where the 
 rainfall is so scanty, that cultivation without irrigation would 
 be impossible. The central provinces are thus described :— 
 The south-eastern portion of the Nagpore Province is a 
 great wilderness : that to the north of the Indrawatty is 
 entirely uncultivated and uninhabited. The lower portion 
 is described as a primeval forest ; and, out of 114,718 
 square miles, which is the area of the province, 24,950 
 alone were cultivated. With regard to British Burmah it is 
 said : — " The total area of this province has been estimated 
 " at 90,070 square miles, of which one-thirtieth part is under 
 " cultivation." These extracts, taken from our Government 
 returns, will exhibit clearly the general characteristics of 
 large portions of our Indian Empire ; but the conclusion 
 derivable from it becomes all the more absolute when the 
 general state of cultivation and the general condition of the 
 life of the people rise fairly before us. If the absolute area 
 under cultivation is thus limited, we can understand how 
 forcibly these conditions will tell upon our export trade, but 
 still more will this be so when we recognise that the portion
 
 INDIA. 151 
 
 which is cultivated is rendered of comparatively little value, 
 from the want of those sources of irrigation which are so 
 absolutely necessary in a climate like India. All authorities 
 are agreed that irrigation is the first necessity for successful 
 cultivation, and all authorities are equally agreed that the 
 means for carrying it out do not exist. 
 
 In some returns issued by the India Office, in July, 1869, 
 entitled Statistical Information with Reference to India, are 
 these remarks : — " One of the most important branches of the 
 administration of British India is that which is entrusted 
 with the development of the resources of the country by 
 means of public works. In a country like India the direct 
 aid of Government to industry is required for a variety of 
 purposes which in more advanced countries are sufficiently 
 and even better provided for by private enterprise. The 
 most important of these works are irrigation, by means of 
 which the land is rendered more fertile, and a certain 
 remedy is provided against the loss of crops during seasons 
 of drought, and communications which benefit not only the 
 staple produce of the country by providing means for its 
 export from the place of its production, but they also in a 
 like manner benefit the imports of the country, thus in- 
 directly stimulating the trade of other countries also." 
 In speaking of one portion of public works, and having 
 reference to one product of India, a writer of considerable 
 eminence adds : — 
 
 " If we look to any one measure of improved cultivation 
 " as more important in India, and yet of more difficult 
 ''attainment than any other, we shall probably select irriga- 
 " tion. Nearly every experiment tends to show that, in 
 " some way or other, not yet much understood, the due 
 " supply of moisture, whether to the soil or the air, neither 
 " too much nor too little, nor at improper times, is an 
 " indispensable element in the means of a successful growth
 
 152 INDIA, 
 
 " of cotton.' The natural advantages of the countries of suit- 
 " able temperature, both in India and elsewhere, which most 
 " cheaply produce cotton of acceptable qualities, seem to lie 
 " in a considerable degree in the fact, that their soil and 
 " climate fulfil, of themselves, this necessary condition in 
 " respect of moisture." 
 
 But what is so specially true of cotton is true of all other 
 kinds of vegetation. The various famines that from time to- 
 time decimate India are due to the fact that irrigation works 
 do not exist to supply the deficiency occasioned by long con- 
 tinued drought. The same writer adds : — 
 
 " But in the cotton-growing' countries of Central and 
 " Peninsular India, irrigation, to be practised in the months 
 " when it is most needed, must be effected by cheaply and 
 " readily lifting water from wells, or from the beds of rivers, 
 " from 30 to 100 feet below the surface to be irrigated ; a 
 " process of no great difficulty or expense, if suitable mechani- 
 " cal means were employed, especially where, as in many 
 " places, steady wind is mostly available. But there is no 
 " suitable skill in the country, — a deprivation the impoverish- 
 " ing consequences of which may be judged of when it is 
 " stated that irrigated lands, even in the districts near the 
 " Ghauts, pay three times as much tax, appeal' to afford ten 
 " or twelve times as much labour, and to yield twelve or 
 " fifteen times as much profit, as the same area without 
 " irrigation." 
 
 " The Concan is well known to grow little or no cotton ; 
 "but it does not clearly appear whether this is owing to 
 " natural disadvantages or to other causes. The remarkable 
 " success of Mr. Elphinston at Rutnageree, is said to prove 
 " that nothing can be done in that quarter without artificial 
 
 " irrigation But Mr. Elphinston, at Rut- 
 
 " nageree, by careful crossing produced cotton of remarkable 
 " excellence, while, by irrigation, which cost nearly half of
 
 INDIA. 158 
 
 " the first year's total expense of cultivation, he obtained 
 "plants which eventually yielded a profit." — Chapman. 
 
 All this information points one way, that agriculture is 
 imperfectly carried out and that irrigation works are a pro- 
 found necessity. How, then, has the Indian Government 
 dealt with a question which they themselves recognise as of 
 paramount importance, both commercially and socially. The 
 details of the amount expended are here given : — 
 
 Statement of Sums allotted for Irrigation Works during the 
 past Six Years including State Outlay on Guaranteed and 
 aided Irrigation Works. 
 
 1864—65 - - - £510,322 
 
 1865—66 - - - 522,405 
 
 1866—67 - - - 645,482 
 
 1867—68 - - - 966,100 
 
 1868—69 - - - 1,205,100 
 
 1869—70 - - 1,777,397 
 
 If it were intended to turn the whole subject into ridicule, 
 
 nothing could be better fitted than these figures, and the 
 
 proportion they bear to other portions of Public Works in 
 
 India are worth noting. The following quotations are from 
 
 the Moral and Material Progress of India, Printed by Order 
 
 of the House of Commons. 
 
 " Public Works. — The expenditure on account of public 
 " works in the Lower Provinces exceeded a million pounds 
 " sterling, being considerably larger than in the preceding 
 " year. It may thus be classified : — 
 
 By the regular Public Works establishments £801,856 
 By civil officers in purchase of land for East 
 India Irrigation and Canal Company in 
 Cuttack ----- 11,582 
 By local establishments organized like the 
 
 regular establishments ... 103,008 
 And by civil officers ... 90,652 
 
 Total £1,007,098
 
 154 INDIA. 
 
 " The aggregate expenditure in the province of Oude on 
 " account of public works during 1867-68 amounted to 
 "£237,753, of which £27,435 was on account of establish- 
 " ment. £93,800 were expended on civil works, and £116,517 
 " for military purposes. Among the former the largest items 
 " appeared under the heads of public buildings and com- 
 " munications such as roads and bridges. And under military 
 "expenditure that for barracks amounted to £90,871. A 
 " commencement was made last year towards the introduction 
 " of irrigation works into this province, for which object a 
 " staff of engineers had been appointed to survey the country 
 " and prepare a project for canals from the Sarda river." 
 
 Speaking of British Burmah : — 
 
 " The total sum expended in the province during 1867-68 
 " on Imperial works was £248,538. The cost of the establish - 
 "ment connected with the above expenditure being £34,952* 
 " The sum expended from local funds, including cost of 
 " establishment, was £52,420. The gross income received 
 " in cash in the Public Works Department was £5,742. 
 
 " There are no public works for irrigation purposes in 
 " this province, but a large area of land has been reclaimed 
 " from swamp by the erection of a bund in the Myan-Oung 
 " district. Communication is kept up between the Rangoon 
 " river and the Sittang by deepening a stream which connects 
 " the Sittang and Pegu rivers, and is called the Pyne-kune 
 " creek or canal." 
 
 These illustrations will suffice to exhibit the position 
 which irrigation holds in the midst of other public works, 
 and from the facts and figures now given some judgment 
 can be formed how little effort is made to meet this profoundly 
 important requirement. 
 
 In rough words, the expenditure on works of irrigation 
 may be considered as one million and a half per annum ; 
 how utterly inefficient such an amount is for carrying out the
 
 [NDIA. 155 
 
 changes required over such an area as the peninsular of India, 
 in its present condition, will be obvious to all who look at 
 the facts for themselves. What value can flow to us, in a 
 commercial point of view, from an expenditure sp small that 
 it is utterly inappreciable when spread over a great empire ? 
 At our present rate of action, five hundred years hence 
 India may be properly irrigated, and our countrymen (if 
 they are then traders), receive the benefit of the operation ; 
 but as regards our present or our immediate future, the 
 whole thing is so trivial that its effects are utterly in- 
 appreciable. Yet the importance and need of more vigorous 
 efforts are recognised by the Indian Office itself, but the 
 difficulty of carrying out what is necessary arises from the 
 whole condition of Indian finance. At the present time it 
 requires all the care of clever men to establish a balance 
 between income and expenditure, and this difficulty will 
 be a permanent one so long as our great public works have 
 to be paid for out of income. 
 
 There is great necessity for us to recognise how absolutely 
 the poverty of the people re-acts upon, and limits, its trading 
 capacity. No matter wdiat the causes may be, so long as a 
 people remains poor so long will it be unable to purchase 
 largely of any manufactures. The first condition that stands 
 before us in our endeavours to develope the commerce of 
 India is that we must make India herself prosperous, for the 
 first essential of all trading is the means to pay for what is 
 bought, and this can only be done, in the present condition of 
 life in India, by large works of irrigation spread throughout 
 the country. The ordinary reply that will be made to this 
 is, that all such undertakings are best left to private enter- 
 prise, and such an answer would be true in connection 
 with ordinary trading transactions, but, under the special cir- 
 cumstances which surround our Indian Empire, the ordinary 
 commercial system would not effect the purpose required.
 
 156 INDIA. 
 
 Some illustrations are here appended connected with private 
 enterprise. 
 
 " In the year 1859, a guarantee of interest on their capital 
 " was given to a company formed for the purpose of con- 
 " structing works of irrigation in the Madras Presidency; 
 " and in the following year a company was started to carry 
 " out works of a similar character in the Bengal Presidency ; 
 " without the aid of such assistance from Government, but 
 " the latter company having failed to raise the necessary 
 " capital for carrying out their works, have, since the com- 
 '• mencement of the present year, relinquished all their rights 
 " in those undertakings to the Indian Government in return 
 " for a repayment of the sums expended by them, together 
 " with a small additional amount as compensation to their 
 " officers, &c. 
 
 " With reference to the operations of the East India Irri- 
 " gation and Canal Company in Cuttack, a loan of £120,000 
 " was made to the company at the beginning of the year, to 
 " enable it to prosecute certain works which it was unable to 
 " carry out from want of funds." — Progress of India, 1869. 
 
 These two illustrations show, how, under the most advan- 
 tageous circumstances, private enterprise is unable to carry 
 through with success the works of irrigation that are known 
 to be required; and this occurs not on account of the works 
 themselves being unprofitable, but, because shareholders are 
 unwilling to embark in enterprises which are so far removed 
 from themselves and their ordinary habits of thought. 
 
 It is obvious, that enterprises of this kind would come into 
 existence, only when the probable profits would be sufficiently 
 large to cover all risks. But it is difficult to conceive that 
 it would be the sound policy of any Government, to permit 
 an organization which would be vital to the well being of 
 its people to pass from its own control to that of others 
 whose only motive could be the obtaining good interest
 
 INDIA. 157 
 
 for their money. Beyond this it is quite obvious, that 
 such arrangements would lack the essential elements which 
 underlie the idea itself. There are many parts of India, 
 where irrigation works would be a lucrative investment ; but 
 there are other parts, where the results would be uncertain, 
 and where also the true value would come indirectly ; that 
 is, more from the increase of trade than by large dividends 
 from the works themselves. The result would, therefore, 
 be that certain portions of India would be irrigated by 
 Joint Stock Companies whilst the more remote parts would 
 be left in their present condition. There are also other 
 objections to such a system ; it would be fragmentary, 
 uncertain, and slow in its operations. Under these circum- 
 stances, the point desired to be achieved would utterly fail, for 
 the condition of our home manufactures requires, that an effort 
 should be made to develope our trade in connection with 
 India, both rapidly and decisively. For this there are no 
 means so certain as enabling the people to lift themselves 
 out of their present poverty by the aid of irrigation works 
 and good public roads. It will also follow that, by so aiding 
 them, we shall aid ourselves, for their demand for our manu- 
 factures would increase in proportion to their means of paying 
 for them. 
 
 Mr. Chapman, after giving some facts, adds : — 
 " From this instance it may be safely inferred that the 
 " readiness with which the natives of India, and even the 
 " lowest of them, fall into the use of manufactures, can 
 " hardly be exceeded in America ; and the facts further show 
 " that the use of our articles depends on our bringing into 
 " action the means of paying for them, by affording employ - 
 " ment to the waste energies of the country and people. It 
 " should also be noted that the natives of India in general 
 " are so much more advanced than the Goands here spoken 
 ' ' of, that their appreciation of the comforts and conveniences
 
 158 INDIA. 
 
 " of life is much more easily awakened, and might clearly be 
 " made to operate much more effectually in the establishment 
 '" and extension of commerce." 
 
 The necessity for large works of irrigation has now been 
 briefly stated, but irrigation, powerful and important as it 
 may be, is only one of the powers necessary to enable us to 
 develope the commercial prosperity of India. The condition 
 of the roads is one of equally vital importance and there are 
 some points connected with their present state which are 
 almost past belief. The special correspondent of the Times, 
 writes as follows : — 
 
 " Bengal, under the jurisdiction of a Lieutenant Governor, 
 " is of the size of France and Switzerland combined, and how 
 " many miles of metalled road do you think it has? Not 500, 
 " or to be more accurate 498. I mean in the rural districts. 
 " . . . . There is no Parish system in Bengal. There 
 "is no link between the district officer and the thousands of 
 " villages under him. Hence, if anything is to be done, 
 "Government must do it; if the people have no stocks of 
 " food as in Orissa, half-a -million may die before the Govern - 
 " ment can know it." — Times, Dec, 6th, 1869. 
 
 " The roads in the interior are mere tracks ; and even 
 " with important lines is this the case. In this matter the 
 " Deccan is probably not at all peculiar among native states." 
 — Moral and Material Progress of India. 
 
 " In estimating the effect of want of roads on our exports, 
 " it must be remembered that the disadvantage commonly 
 " applies not so much to the cost of conveying our manufac- 
 ' ' tures inwards, as to that of bringing to the coast the heavy 
 " agricultural and other produce which is to pay for them ; 
 " and we shall see a few instances, both in America and India, 
 " where the effect is mitigated by the substitution of a lighter 
 " material of commerce. Notwithstanding, however, the 
 " occurrence of a few such instances, it must still be true, in
 
 INDIA. 159 
 
 " general, that no country little advanced in the mechanical 
 ' ' arts can pay for manufactures in other than crude and 
 " heavy produce ; and such a country can make little progress 
 " besides that which is permitted by the means it may possess 
 " of cheaply transporting that produce to more advanced 
 " countries and more thickly-peopled seats of consumption. 
 " This, which is true of all countries, is especially so of India : 
 " the subject matters of its export commerce, if that com- 
 " merce is to be much extended, must necessarily, for a long 
 " time to come, be of a coarse and ponderous character ; and 
 "by so much does its need of roads, and the effects of its want 
 " of them, afford a just parallel with the case of South 
 " America ; the apparent exceptions also to the operation of the 
 " principle in both cases confirm its general truth." — Chapman. 
 
 The advantages here pointed out are curiously upheld 
 by some remarks having reference to Mysore. The follow- 
 ing is an illustration — "£14,722 w T as expended during the 
 "past year, entirely upon village and district roads, with 
 " the exception of small sums for wells and trees connected 
 "with them; much good work has been done both in the 
 " past and previous years, and the direct benefit of these 
 " cross roads was reported to be of great value to all classes 
 " of the community, but particularly to landowners." — 
 — Moral and Material Progress of India. 
 
 " By affording easier and cheaper means of transport, and 
 " by consequently enabling industrial products to be sent 
 " to more distant markets, railways undoubtedly not only 
 " enable home-producers to obtain higher prices from foreign 
 " customers, but also give a new stimulus to home-produc- 
 " tion, causing fresh lands to be brought under cultivation, 
 " or to be planted or sown with more remunerative crops, 
 " and encouraging equally the extension of manufacturing 
 " mining, and miscellaneous industry. Two distinct incre- 
 " ments of national wealth are in consequence made, consist-
 
 160 INDIA. 
 
 " ing, first, of enhanced receipts from abroad for part of the 
 '• previous aggregate of national produce ; second, of the 
 "entire net profits on the sale." — Chapman. 
 
 The importance of good roads is unequivocally clear, 
 for no large trade, either import or export, can be carried 
 on where they do not exist. Hitherto the considerations 
 have been directed to the influence that roads and irriga- 
 tion have upon the general productions of India and 
 the reflex action upon our export trade. But there is 
 one more view which deserves to be considered in the 
 possible value that India may be to ourselves and that is 
 the relation it bears to our cotton manufactures by the 
 growth of cheap cotton. At the outbreak of the cotton 
 famine, the cotton that India supplied to our market 
 immediately rose in value, and attention was also directed 
 to the question whether it would be possible to grow better 
 qualities. A number of experiments was made, and 
 generally the result desired was achieved ; but, even at the 
 present time, the power of India may be considered substan- 
 tially undeveloped. The following extracts will enforce this 
 view. Mr. Chapman, after discussing an area fitted for the 
 cotton plant, adds : — 
 
 " If one-half of it is occupied by mountain ranges, 
 " sites of towns, beds of rivers, and unsuitable soils, the 
 " other half contains 67,500 square miles, or 43,200,000 acres, 
 " applicable to the growth of cotton fit for English use. If 
 " one-fourth of this were cropped every year, and the produce 
 " were equal to the average of Guzerat and Candeish, or 
 " 100 lbs. per acre, the weight of the whole crop would 
 " be 1,080,000,000 lbs. per annum, or 2J times the entire 
 " quantity annually consumed by the manufactures of Great 
 " Britain, on the average of the thirteen years ending in 
 " 1846. But Indian cotton, of the quality at present supplied, 
 " is not suited to more than 75 per cent, of our manufactures,
 
 INDIA. 1G1 
 
 " that is, we could take from India only 360,000,000 lbs. 
 "per annum out of the 480,000,000 lbs. we now work up; 
 " so that this part of India alone, being probably capable of 
 " producing 1,080,000,000 lbs. per annum, could grow for us 
 " three times as much as we could take, and could therefore 
 " amply and fully stock us, even if we had no other source of 
 " supply, except for the very fine varieties required by a 
 " small part of our manufactures." 
 
 A writer in the Cotton Supply Reporter (Mr. J. Login, 
 C.F., F.R.S.E.) also adds:— 
 
 " That of Egypt appears to me far in advance of anything 
 ' I have seen in India, for, taking cotton as an example, one 
 " acre of properly irrigated land can produce eight or ten 
 " times as much cotton as the same area now produces in 
 " Northern India ; so that, without increasing the area under 
 " cotton cultivation, I believe, by the introduction of the 
 " Egyptian system of agriculture into India, the produce may 
 " be doubled or quadrupled, without it being necessary to re- 
 " duce the quantity of land required for food. I have no doubt 
 " at all that cotton in much larger quantities, and of a better 
 " quality, could be produced in India by an improved system 
 " of agriculture. What I would venture to suggest is, that 
 " a dozen or two of Egyptian cultivators should be selected 
 " and sent to the various provinces of India, to aid in bring- 
 " ing about an improved system of farming, as possibly the 
 " natives may be more willing to listen to their advice than 
 " to that of Europeans." 
 
 It would, therefore, appear that the capacity that India 
 possesses for producing raw cotton is practically unlimited. 
 As we can consume enormous quantities of this article 
 of her produce, India, in return, can consume enormous 
 quantities of our manufactured goods. The conditions by 
 which such a result can be achieved are still in the future ; 
 because those necessary elements, irrigation and good roads, 
 
 M
 
 162 INDIA. 
 
 do not exist. So long as these conditions remain unfulfilled, 
 so long will it be that India will hold the inferior position 
 with regard to ourselves which she holds at the present 
 time. 
 
 All the points now referred to require, for their fulfil- 
 ment, Government aid; private enterprise, even at its best, 
 is inefficient and uncertain, and would deal only with minor 
 points and on no general plan. Whilst the power that 
 Government possesses to carry through any system is co- 
 equal with its own organization. In an article on India, 
 having reference to the idea that the large public works 
 should be carried out by government The Westminster 
 Review has the following : — 
 
 " Every one is familiar with the usual stock objections 
 " to Government interposition wherever it can be dispensed 
 " with. That the state should do nothing for the public 
 " which the public can do equally well for themselves, has 
 " almost passed into a proverb, and far be it from us to 
 "dispute the soundness of the maxim. On the contrary, 
 " we are ourselves inclined to carry the proposition to an 
 " extreme. To us the fostering of habits of self-help and 
 " self-dependance, appears such an important element in 
 " national education, that within certain, and those pretty 
 " wide limits, we should say, better for the public to do 
 " things badly for themselves than to have them well done 
 " by others. But in saying this it is essential, especially 
 " where the construction of public works is in question, to 
 " distinguish carefully between the integral public and its 
 " individual components, as well as between countries in 
 ■' which the land belongs to individuals, and those in which 
 " — as in India, for example — the Government is the supreme 
 " landlord. Better, no doubt, that the inhabitants of a town 
 " or district in England, where the general principle of land- 
 " tenure is what it is, should make their own roads, docks,
 
 INDIA 163 
 
 " bridges, gas-works, and water-works, than pay for having 
 " them made by the Central Government; but if the local 
 " community will not itself undertake their construction, it 
 "by no means follows that the next best thing is to leave 
 " them to be constructed as a commercial speculation by 
 " private adventurers. For with respect to public works, it 
 " is desirable, not only that they should be as suitable as 
 " possible for their special purposes, but that the public 
 " should have the use of them on the cheapest possible con- 
 " ditions, which they obviously cannot have if private specu- 
 *' lators are permitted to make profit by them; while without 
 " the prospect of profit speculators will not undertake them. 
 " That surely cannot be the best arrangement for the public 
 " under which public needs become the subject of private 
 ** gain, under which individuals profit at the expense of the 
 *' general. Evidently it were better, if possible, that what- 
 " ever gain is made at the public expense should go back 
 " into the public purse, 
 
 " So soon as the doctrine that the land belongs to the 
 " people as a whole shall obtain complete recognition, road and 
 *' canal making, and irrigation on that gigantic scale which is 
 *' essential to eastern countries, will be found to be among 
 " the few important functions of Government, when restricted 
 *' to the proper sphere of its activity. 
 
 " The more attention is given to the question — Who 
 " ought to construct the public works ? — the more distinct 
 " we believe will be the answer that the duty rests with the 
 " Government. Assuming that political economists and 
 " statesmen will ultimately concur in this judgment, they 
 " will probably be also of opinion that whenever such works 
 " would undoubtedly yield a large indirect profit to the state, 
 " by developing and enriching it as a whole, they ought to 
 " be constructed even though they should fail to yield a 
 " direct profit on their cost and management." 
 
 m 2
 
 1G4 INDIA. 
 
 There are some points connected with India about which 
 there can be very little doubt. There is no difference of 
 opinion that so long as a country remains imperfectly cul- 
 tivated, devastated by famine, and without roads, it must of 
 necessity be poor. These are the conditions of India to-day, 
 and they can only be removed by changing the circum- 
 stances that have produced them. If the first essential of 
 successful cultivation in India be large irrigation works, 
 as all competent authorities concur in asserting, it is 
 quite clear that, so long as these do not exist, imperfect 
 cultivation must be the rule. But if irrigation works were 
 erected throughout the entire of the Indian Empire, the 
 question would only be half answered : roads and railroads 
 are equally as imperative necessities, if India i3 to be 
 utilized to us as a great market for our manufactures. No 
 large advance in India can take place without improved 
 cultivation, and no large trade without improved roads : the 
 one is a complement of the other ; they are each good, but to 
 be fruitful to us in a commercial point of view, they must be 
 combined. A step has already been taken with reference to 
 the construction of railroads, but to what extent and on what 
 scale may be judged by the fact, that we have spent five times 
 as much money on railroads in England as we have engaged 
 to spend on the railway system of India. 
 
 The policy that governs a country must vary from time 
 to time and change as circumstances change. It may 
 have been that the policy which guided the old East India 
 Company was true and sound for their time and their cir- 
 cumstances, and they therefore could afford to reap their 
 harvest from a less anxious policy than what is needed now. 
 Placed as England is to-day, it has become of very high 
 importance that every power we possess, whether acquired 
 by military daring or built up by commercial prudence, 
 should be utilized for the good of the people at home. Our
 
 INDIA. 165 
 
 colonies need no such consideration ; but we are placed where 
 the struggle of life deepens with an ever increasing intensity, 
 and where the need for work has made such a policy of ever 
 increasing importance. It is from this point of view that 
 India can largely aid us, for she can be made to absorb year 
 by year a larger amount of our manufactured goods. But 
 there is one point pre-eminently clear : we can only aid our- 
 selves by first aiding India; we can only create markets for 
 our goods by first creating the conditions by which they can 
 be paid for; and we can only create these conditions by a 
 large expenditure of public money on public work. The 
 probability that such expenditure will realize good interest 
 is borne out by the results which appear in connection with 
 our Indian railways. And the probabilities are still larger 
 in connection with those works that are the more immediate 
 agents in the production of national wealth. 
 
 The conditions here pointed out all lead to one conclusion : 
 the necessity on the part of Government to undertake this 
 responsibility. But the construction of vast public works will 
 require au entire change in the existing financial policy of 
 India. At the present time there appears a distinct objection 
 on the part of the Imperial Government to any loan being 
 contracted by the Indian Government. It appears to be 
 held that the various improvements that are required shall 
 take place by private enterprise or be paid for out of income; 
 and the consequence is that India must languish for want 
 of that money which now lies waste at home. 
 
 The present condition of our money market affords a 
 curious commentary upon this position. Lord Overstone, 
 in a late debate in the House of Lords, stated that the 
 absolute nett growth of capital was about 150 millions 
 annually; and sooner or later the question will arise, what 
 is to be done with it ? It is easy to find speculative 
 adventures and unsound investments; it is easy to lend to
 
 166 INDIA. 
 
 defaulting governments and repudiating states, but it is 
 not so easy to find legitimate openings for investment, 
 that will yield a moderately large percentage and at the 
 same time be absolutely safe. It is not difficult to see that 
 in England we have already a plethora of capital, and that 
 the tendency is for that plethora to increase. In the first 
 place, money has now been for some years at a very low rate 
 of interest, and the great bulk, that has been taken from our 
 market, has been taken in foreign loans. In the next place, 
 it is equally clear that in 1866 the capital of the country was 
 more than equal to all its emergencies, and nearly four years 
 have gone by since then. If we then take Lord Overstone's 
 estimate as being right, we have had an accumulation of 
 capital of more than 500 millions since the panic, and under 
 existing conditions this accumulation is still going on. 
 
 It must also be recognised that so long as our export trade 
 continues at its present amount, the profit produced by it 
 will be nearly as large now as on any past occasion. The 
 same may be said with reference to the existing incomes of 
 those who hold realised property. The depression that now 
 exists will fall, as it has fallen, on the artisan, the shop- 
 keeper, and the manufacturer ; whilst the surplus incomes of 
 the wealthy will remain intact. We shall, therefore, have a 
 profit always accumulating and nearly as large, at the present 
 time, as it would be under more favourable circumstances ; 
 the difference being that in prosperous times all classes 
 benefit, whilst, under existing circumstances, only a limited 
 number, but that limited number is represented by the class 
 of capitalists. 
 
 It should also be remembered that the demand for 
 money at home in the future will be relatively small. 
 The capital necessary for building our railways, making 
 our docks, erecting our warehouses, constructing our ma- 
 chinery, and generally perfecting the conditions of our
 
 INDIA. 167 
 
 working and social life, already exist and any demand in 
 the future in connection therewith must be limited. We 
 are in the position of a merchant with a workshop attached 
 to his house ; we have built and furnished our house, erected 
 and fitted our workshop, and constructed, in every way, the 
 arrangements necessary for our business and our living, and 
 the money that was required to put us in this position, when 
 once expended, does not require to be expended again ; very 
 little thought will show that such is substantially our case. 
 In the first place, since the introduction of our railway 
 system, we have spent over 480 millions of money in 
 perfecting it; but, once being finished, it will not require 
 rebuilding. The same may be said of our docks, ware- 
 houses, manufactories, dwelling-houses, &c. It is of course 
 quite true that a certain amount will be spent annually 
 in keeping the arrangements of our country in their proper 
 working order, but beyond this it would appear probable 
 we shall not have at home much employment in the 
 future for our savings. So that in the ordinary course of 
 events, with the accumulation of capital continuously going 
 on, we shall have a continually increasing mass of deposits, 
 which will seek employment and will have great difficulty in 
 finding it. If these illustrations be correct, we have capital 
 seeking outlets and India requiring capital. The question, 
 therefore, rises up : — Shall these two conditions be made 
 mutually beneficial to each other? Shall we elevate our 
 Indian Empire by the aid of English capital expended upon 
 large public works of commercial utility, carried out under 
 Government inspection and built by the aid of Government 
 loans; and by so doing help to renovate into fresh life our 
 now stationary export trade ?
 
 1C8 
 
 RESUME. 
 
 At the outset of this book the question was asked, How are 
 the people to find work and food ? and this question is 
 forced upwards from the condition in which England stands 
 to-day. We have an enormous- pauper population, and 
 a population still greater just above pauperism. We have 
 an export trade that is stationary; a limitation in the 
 demand for labour through the introduction of machinery; a 
 decrease of employment through the force of foreign com- 
 petition, and, to intensify all these, we have a population 
 whose increase is at least six hundred per day. How are 
 these conditions to be dealt with ? It is idle and weak to 
 speak of the great wealth of England as a panacea for our 
 present evils, whilst starvation exists in our streets and 
 pauperism and destitution threaten to overwhelm us. The 
 weight of our present position is beginning to produce its 
 natural effect, and men, who are usually removed from the 
 impulses that guide public life, are looking around them and 
 saying, where is this to end? It is known that manufac- 
 turers are wasting the fortunes, which they had amassed in 
 the past, in the endeavour to keep on their mills at half- 
 time. It is known that every kind and every class of 
 employment are not only filled to overflowing, but the appli- 
 cants are hopeless in their endeavours to obtain work. In 
 the streets of London, men are to be found by thousands 
 who are ready to toil and cannot find the work to do, 
 and, as week passes week, fresh circumstances continually 
 crop up, showing that underneath all this, there are states 
 of destitution still more terrible; and it is thus, that the
 
 RESUME. 1G9 
 
 question comes fairly home, how is this to end ? If the subject 
 be played with; if men fold their arms and look on; if they 
 say, as has been said before, that all this will right itself, 
 then the law of self preservation will be powerful enough 
 to sweep away the existing organization and place us face 
 to face with difficulties more profound and more real than 
 any that this country has ever had to contend with. The 
 difficulties of our position become all the more clear the more 
 closely they are viewed, and instead of being linked with 
 any individual or passing influence, the causes are general 
 and the results are general also. 
 
 In the earlier chapters of this book, the subject has been 
 briefly and rapidly traced out, with the facts on which it rests 
 and the evidence by which it is supported. What is the 
 broad teaching that it contains ? what are the causes of our 
 present position? and what is the conclusion to which it 
 points ? Plainly and clearly and past all questioning stands 
 the rough fact that we cannot feed ourselves ; equally 
 clearly, and equally definitely, stands up the second fact 
 that the numbers we cannot feed are ever largely on the 
 increase. These two truths represent the great elements 
 of the whole problem ; but the teachings they contain and 
 the consequences to which they lead are either not recog- 
 nised, or recognised with the lazy indifference with which 
 we regard unimportant facts. Yet they underlie our whole 
 commercial policy, will mould the conditions of our future, 
 and are vitally important, because the conditions that belong 
 to them will grow with an ever-increasing force. No man 
 doubts the broad fact that we cannot feed ourselves. It 
 has been accepted by Parliamentary Committees, made the 
 plea for large Inclosure Acts, and it caused the repeal of the 
 Corn Laws ; equally as little can it be doubted that this con_ 
 dition is ever on the increase, for it is shown by the Registrar- 
 General's returns, and the ever increasing competition for
 
 170 RESUME. 
 
 work. Day by day the tell-tale of our population mounts 
 higher, and its results are to be found in the increasing re- 
 quirements for foreign food. But at great Manchester meet- 
 ings men tabulate out this enormous increase, and appeal to it 
 a3 an evidence of the value of free trade ; whilst the facts 
 are that our imports of food have only the one meaning, viz : 
 we import that food which we cannot produce for ourselves. 
 The relation that food thus bears to our population makes 
 itself felt in a variety of ways : it changes the character of our 
 pauperism, the conditions of our destitution, and the price 
 of food itself; it also enforces the importance of our export 
 trade and the danger of foreign competition. All these cir- 
 cumstances, so apparently remote, are linked together by 
 the one tie, that our land cannot feed our people. 
 
 With respect to the first point, the state of our pau- 
 perism, it is so changed that it no longer represents its 
 original elements. The first poor law was based on the idea 
 that paupers were the idle and the worthless, and to such 
 a labour test was the natural limitation of help ; but to-day 
 men seek work and cannot find it, enfored idleness saps 
 energy, and thus it is they sink slowly down to pauperism. 
 The same may be said of destitution with even greater force : 
 that silent, hopeless, broken misery, which is too powerless 
 to create work, too feeble to force it, and too proud to beg — 
 that poverty which sinks, suffers, and dies; that destitution, 
 of all others the most fearful and the most real, also springs 
 from over population. 
 
 This influence of over population also manifests itself 
 in the ever advancing price of food: silently and steadily, 
 various kinds of produce are ever on the increase, and this 
 increase makes itself felt through various channels. It can 
 be traced through trade-nnion strikes, and the power of 
 foreign competition. When men struck for higher wages, 
 they made use of a plea at once vigorous and sound ; they
 
 RESUME, 171 
 
 stated that they required more wages, because the money 
 would not purchase so much now as it would have purchased 
 some years ago, and it is thus that the claim for higher wages 
 has a moral basis and a political meaning. This advance in 
 the price of food becomes even more important, when we 
 trace the relation it bears to that struggle of continental 
 competition on which we are now entering. It is true that 
 England draws her corn from the granaries of the world, 
 and it is equally true that we reap an advantage by so 
 doing, for we have no longer the enormous fluctuations in 
 value to which corn was previously subjected. But when 
 those countries from which we draw our corn are also 
 entering into the race of manufactures with ourselves, it 
 is clear that they start with this condition of life in their 
 favour, for they only sell to us their surplus food. We 
 must therefore recognise that some portion of their power 
 of competition, depends upon circumstances which we are 
 powerless to change. All men will agree that throughout 
 the Continent the means of living are cheaper than they are 
 with us ; if we add to this, better climatic conditions, greater 
 abundance of food and less density of population, we have 
 the explanation why wages are lower on the Continent, and 
 why, even under equal conditions of life, Belgian cottons and 
 Prussian iron can be sold cheaper than our own. This 
 continental competition which is now growing so rapidly, 
 and which will grow still more rapidly in the future, is 
 produced by the same influences as those that affect us at 
 home — increase of population. The whole of Europe is 
 becoming more densely peopled, and the density of popula- 
 tion is awakening a fiercer struggle for life, and from this 
 comes competition in our various manufacturing products. 
 It is important for us to recognise that France, Belgium, 
 Germany, and other countries can manufacture more cheaply 
 than we can, and it is still more important that we should
 
 172 RESUME. 
 
 clearly recognise the reason why this is and the probability 
 that exists of its increase. 
 
 It has been suggested, that the way to meet the difficulties 
 incidental to foreign competition is to impose duties on 
 foreign goods and to insist upon the principles of reciprocity, 
 but any attempt to deal with this difficulty through the in- 
 fluence of protection would be idle and worthless. It is possi- 
 ble that heavy import duties would help that portion of labour 
 which belongs to our home manufactures, but such duties 
 would help labour at the cost of the whole nation. Beyond 
 this the result would be altogether trivial when compared 
 with the total manufactures of our country; and it is quite 
 clear that, in the open markets of the world, protection could 
 have no existence, Our struggle for life is not limited to the 
 area of the British Isles, for our commerce stretches over the 
 whole globe and has to compete in all markets. And the 
 warnings, that now rise from the pressure round our very 
 firesides, will tell us how the force of the same competition 
 will be, sooner or later, co-equal with our commerce. Let 
 us then carefully consider the whole question. Let us 
 recognise, that we are in the midst of a dilemna which 
 springs from a surplus population, ever on the increase, 
 and pressing every day more severely on the means of life. 
 Let us also recognise that this difficulty is still further in- 
 tensified by the existence of a foreign competition, that is not 
 only large in the present, but promises to increase with still 
 greater force in the future. And let us recognise still fur- 
 ther that this clement of foreign competition grows not only 
 by the pressure of population in France, Belgium, and 
 Germany, and by the advantages of food, position and 
 climate, but also by those accumulations of capital that 
 are now to be found on every large exchange in Europe. 
 
 How then are we to meet these difficulties, and which 
 way is our position drifting? To answer these questions we
 
 RESUME. 173 
 
 must recognise where we have been and where we now 
 are. A century ago it would have been possible for us 
 to have shut ourselves up in our island home, and lived 
 utterly excluded from the outside world. The land then 
 yielded sufficient produce to feed the then existing popula- 
 tion. To-day the case is so utterly changed that we 
 are dependent upon other parts of the world for one-half of 
 our food: the difference between these two conditions marks 
 the change between the past and the present. In the past 
 we were dependent upon the yield of our own soil alone for 
 the food that we ate, and our export trade was simply 
 the exchange of superfluities. To-day, our numbers are 
 more than the land can feed, and we are therefore dependent 
 upon the amount of our export trade to pay for the extra 
 food we require. Unless our export trade grows with the 
 growth of our population, we shall have the destitution, misery 
 and death that we have in our land to-day ever increasing. 
 
 There are men who so utterly misunderstand this relation, 
 that they point to this expansion of our export trade as 
 though it were the embodiment of all success, and they see 
 in its enormous growth a theme on which their fancy 
 can dilate. But when it is reduced to the hard realism of 
 life, the growth of our export trade simply means, that there 
 have been so many more people to work and so much more 
 work has been done. It will therefore follow that the 
 continuous increase of our export trade is as much a matter 
 of necessity as the increase of our importations of food are 
 necessary to feed our ever increasing people. We may be 
 gratified when our export trade expands, because its ex- 
 pansion indicates that the people have employment, and 
 we may be equally warned when it ceases to expand, for 
 then the people will starve. The conditions of the question 
 will, therefore, resolve themselves thus : in the past we fed 
 ourselves entirely from our own land; in the present we
 
 174 RESUME. 
 
 feed ourselves partly from the land and partly by the aid of 
 our export trade. What are the probabilities that surround 
 our future, and how can the necessary balance he maintained 
 in the face of a rapidly growing population ? 
 
 The answer to this question is, that we can keep the 
 balance either by the continuous expansion of our export 
 trade or by reducing the number of our people by the aid of 
 emigration. But to arrive clearly at our conclusions, we 
 must ascertain by what means our trade has grown in the 
 past, and which of these causes can be depended upon for 
 its growth in the future ? Also, what is the condition of our 
 colonies at the present time 
 
 Let any man turn to the map in this book and note how 
 our export trade has grown: at times it remains stationary 
 for years and then springs forward, it once more becomes 
 stationary, then again advances. "What is the explanation 
 of such phenomena? It is to be found in the action of 
 special causes. For instance — it cannot be doubted that the 
 discovery of gold in California and Australia developed our 
 export trade, and equally as little can it be doubted that 
 the introduction of the railway system brought people into 
 more intimate relations and developed commerce. Beyond 
 these, the effect of wars and exhibitions is to bring people 
 into more intimate relations, and so to lay the foundation 
 for increased trade. That wars exercise such influence 
 upon trade is a matter of reasoning, but the teachings 
 derivable from our exports to France, Turkey, Russia, India 
 and China, in connection with our military operations, all 
 seem to point to the conclusion that the reflex action of war 
 is to increase trade. Our exhibitions were also constructed 
 on the thought that, by bringing together the various nations 
 of the world to exhibit their special productions, we should 
 increase trade, and the results that followed appear to uphold 
 it. New markets and speculative manias have also aided
 
 RESUME. 175 
 
 this result. But the question here arises, how many of 
 the same influences can we reckon upon for our future trade? 
 Exhibitions have ceased to be novel; Gold Discoveries no 
 longer create their first enthusiasm; the Kailway System in 
 Europe has produced its first great changes, and the revo- 
 lution of thought and life it introduced will grow slowly in 
 the future. War happily is becoming every day more depre- 
 cated, and every day less probable. New markets come 
 but rarely, and the results of our speculative manias have 
 caused men to dread rather than respect them. All these 
 causes — causes which were powerful in our past for the rapid 
 growth of our export trade — afford us but little hope for 
 the future, and there appears no reason to anticipate that 
 we shall be able to awaken analogous powers to supply 
 their places without making distinct efforts for ourselves. 
 
 There are some who so misconceive the whole question as 
 to assert with strange pertinacity, that the entire of the increase 
 of our past trade has been due to the action of free trade, 
 but the facts do not warrant this. All men are more or 
 less agreed in the general truth of Free Trade doctrines ; and 
 placed as England is to-day, free trade is her soundest policy ; 
 but the endeavour to build up the whole of the wonderfully- 
 complex relations of trade by one simple idea, is as futile 
 as it is unreal. If free trade were the all powerful element 
 that its too enthusiastic advocates would make it, how comes 
 it that trade ever slackens ? How comes it that America, with 
 an excessively high tariff, continues to import ever increasing 
 quantities of foreign manufactures 1 The answer, as a matter 
 of free trade reasoning, is difficult to find, but as a matter of 
 every day common sense it is clearly on the surface. Our 
 trade grew during the last twenty years because new stimu- 
 lants were applied from time to time, and it has ceased to 
 grow because no new stimulant is forthcoming. Let any man 
 look at the figures from 1848 and see how the trade grew ;
 
 17f> RESUME. 
 
 not gradually, but by bounds; and note also, when it thus 
 rebounded, some definite and known causes are clearly re- 
 sponsible for the result. Let any man again look at the totals 
 of our export trade from 1815 to the present time and he will 
 then see that until 1848 it never definitely grew, It varied 
 from year to year, but its changes were changes only ; our 
 exports in 1815, 1840 and 1848 are substantially the same. 
 It would take too long to trace out the conditions of the 
 earlier times referred to, but it may be broadly stated, they 
 are removed from the question of protection duties. With 
 regard to high tariffs in America they act there as they 
 act everywhere else, they check consumption and they 
 check it to the extent that the price of the goods is in- 
 creased by the duty. This influence is lessened when a 
 population is rapidly increasing both in numbers and pros- 
 perity, as is the case in America to-day, and under the 
 special circumstances in which that country is placed the 
 question of import duties has a different significance from 
 what it has with ourselves. With us, any modifications 
 that we can make in our import duties, so as to stimulate 
 foreign trade will be the best course open to us. If our home 
 territory were large enough to feed our population, our de- 
 pendence on foreign countries would cease, and the question 
 of the importance of our foreign trade would be reduced to 
 the very smallest dimensions. But such a condition not 
 being possible, we are driven to consider by what means we 
 can increase our future trade. 
 
 It is important for us to remember, that the necessity that 
 our trade shall grow with increased force in the future is 
 proved by conditions not at first sight on the surface. Not 
 only is it true that foreign competition is growing with great 
 rapidity ; not only is machinery lessening the demand for 
 labour; but the construction of our great public works which 
 has hitherto afforded employment to a large number of
 
 RESUME. 177 
 
 our labouring- classes, may be considered as completed, 
 and this source of employment will, therefore, exist no 
 lono-er. The combination of these causes render more 
 imperative the necessity that new channels for our com- 
 merce and new arrangements for dealing with our surplus 
 population should be brought into action. "What those 
 arrangements could become will be more apparent when we 
 trace out the possibilities and powers of our Colonial Empire. 
 Our Colonial Empire, exclusive of India, has been reckoned 
 as one-quarter of the world, and now contains a population 
 of about ten millions. It is found, that this colonial popu- 
 lation absorbs, at the present time, a large and continually 
 increasing quantity of our exports, and that any large 
 accession to their numbers, by way of emigration, causes 
 a direct increase in the amount. The facts connected with 
 our export trade to Australia and California arising from the 
 emigration to these countries, may be considered conclusive 
 proofs of such results ; and it would therefore appear, that 
 any course of action, which will develope emigration, will 
 also develope our export trade. It may, therefore, be said, 
 that the first element out of which to build up an increasing 
 commerce exists within ourselves, for we can stimulate emi- 
 gration as we will. It is found that this increase in our 
 exports is always greater in connection with emigration to 
 our colonies than with that to America or elsewhere. It 
 would, therefore, appear that it will be to our advantage 
 that the current of our emigration should be directed to the 
 finest portions of our Colonial Empire. The value of emi- 
 gration, both to the colonies and ourselves, is accepted as 
 an established truth, and the desire is generally expressed 
 for its increase. But as to the manner in which it shall be 
 carried into effect there is large divergency of opinion. On 
 the one side there are those who insist that, in the existing 
 conditions of society, emigration should be carried out by 
 
 N
 
 178 RESUME. 
 
 means of State aid ; whilst, on the other side, there are 
 those who insist that the ordinary influences of life are 
 equal to all emergencies, and it would therefore be unwise 
 to interfere in any way. The question is, which of these is 
 right? The advocates of State aid reply to the doctrine of 
 our allowing things to work themselves out, that such a 
 course would be productive of profound misery, and they 
 point to the past conditions connected with Ireland as an 
 illustration of the truth of their opinions; and whea under 
 such circumstances the people died by hundreds of thousands. 
 Such a course may have been palliated by the teachings 
 of political economy, but it was not statesmanship. If 
 this result were true of Ireland twenty-four years ago the 
 truth is equally pregnant with warning for our own land 
 to-day, since we have in the midst of us a population of one 
 million of paupers and another population of two or three 
 millions of people but one step above pauperism, whilst the 
 trade by which they are fed is stagnant and waning. Leave 
 these conditions alone, let the problem work itself out, 
 give no help : and what must follow — starvation or revolu- 
 tion. The one is the dictum of political economy, the 
 other has an uglier name. 
 
 It would be undesirable, that any such results should 
 come to pass whilst the means to avoid them are at our com- 
 mand, and these means are at our command in the proper 
 use of our Colonial Empire. In it we have the elements out 
 of which can be woven a great social and a great political 
 triumph. On the one side we have land lying useless, 
 myriads of acres waiting to be tilled. At home, we 
 have an enormous surplus population, crushed by sorrow 
 and want, lying hid in dingy courts and close alleys, and 
 ever generating and dispensing the elements of physical and 
 social disease. So long as they remain with us, so long 
 will these conditions intensify, until at last, by the mere
 
 RESUME. 179 
 
 magnitude of the danger, we shall be driven to face the 
 question whether we will or no. Let us at the same time 
 recognise that these very elements, so prolific with evil, — 
 evil alike for themselves and others, are the very elements out 
 of which good can be woven. The circumstances by which 
 such a result can be achieved are plainly before us. Let us 
 bridge over the ocean that lies between ourselves and our 
 colonies ; let us place the labour that is useless here on the 
 land that is useless there, and the danger that now menaces 
 us, and the sorrow and want that now surround us would 
 cease of themselves. To effect this result thoroughly and 
 efficiently, Government aid is required; for Government 
 alone has either power or knowledge sufficient to deal with 
 so great a subject. The plea that individual energy, private 
 benevolence, or parish organisation should be left to work the 
 result out is a mere evasion of the difficulty, and not a solution 
 of it, for even at their best they would fail. Individual 
 energy is crushed out in those cases where men are steeped 
 in poverty and utterly broken down; private funds already 
 slacken and, at their greatest strength, are utterly inade- 
 quate to the magnitude of the necessity; and parish organis- 
 ation has neither knowledge of nor association with, our 
 colonies sufficiently large, to enable them to deal with the 
 question as a whole. Government, on the contrary, has 
 all these points, and so soon as it gets over the mental 
 difficulty, and recognises that it is at once its wisdom and 
 duty to undertake it, all other difficulties will disappear. It 
 is not necessary to discuss the various suggestions that are 
 supposed to be involved in the idea of Government aid. 
 The vital question is, is such a step necessary ? The answer 
 to this is to be found in the one fact that we have an annual 
 increase of population of more than two hundred thousand 
 persons for whom no work exists at the present time, and 
 for which there is no probability of work in England in the 
 
 n 2
 
 180 RESUME. 
 
 future ; this one condition affords the explanation of the need 
 for Government aid. 
 
 The objections, that have been raised, spring from views 
 of the relation between Government and people that belong 
 essentially to the past ; the traditional ideas remain, even 
 when the spirit is dead, and it is thus we have disinclination 
 or apathy, even when no clear reason can be given. But 
 as we have now arrived at a period when a Government 
 may be supposed to represent the necessities of a people, the 
 probability is very large, that under the pressure of events, 
 the mode in which this subject will be viewed will undergo 
 a marked change. TV T e shall have the question of Govern- 
 ment aid to emigration first ignored, then discussed, and 
 finally passing into the condition of an accepted necessity. 
 Common-sense suggests its prudence and its value, for it is 
 clearly wise, that the aid given to those, who cannot help 
 themselves, should be such as will place them in a position 
 where they will be enabled to earn their own living and 
 where they can also indirectly aid our manufactures; and 
 by no means can this be done so efficiently as by aid to 
 emigration. There are also large reasons why this question 
 should not be considered or treated as a local one. Our poor, 
 concentrate where they may, are the poor of the nation; 
 special circumstances may have driven them into special 
 localities, but questions of parish arrangements lose their 
 significance in the face of great national difficulties like 
 those of the present, and we are thus entitled to ask that 
 the question shall be dealt with as a whole, and not in detail. 
 Under our present conditions such a course becomes at 
 once a necessity and a policy : a necessity to remove from 
 our shores that labour which vainly seeks for work ; and a 
 policy because emigration would not only relieve us from 
 our surplus population, but would at the same time develope 
 and increase our export trade.
 
 RESUME. 181 
 
 The idea of Governmental interference has yet another 
 arena, the condition of our Indian dependency calls loudly for 
 its exercise. Without challenging either the wisdom or justice 
 of the rule of the East India Company, there are yet some 
 broad facts clear. For nearly a century a large portion of 
 our existing territory has been under their rule, and yet India 
 to-day is so undeveloped that her capacity to absorb our manu- 
 factures is at a very low ebb, and it is at this low ebb because 
 the means for cultivation, such as works of irrigation, are 
 imperfect ; and the means for communication, such as good 
 roads, are imperfect also. Their is no denial of the fact that 
 India is very poor, and there is equally little denial of the 
 cause from which that poverty springs. It is accepted on 
 all sides that the imperfect condition of her agriculture, 
 the paucity of irrigation works, and the absence of good 
 roads, are the more immediate causes of the poverty of the 
 people. It may be assumed that it is to us a wise policy to 
 stimulate the wealth of the natives of India — altogether 
 apart from any question of humanity or good government, 
 because in stimulating the material well-being of the natives 
 of India, we create the means by which our own manu- 
 factures can be purchased. The present condition of India 
 is so remote from its possible capabilities that we can 
 only speculate as to what it might have been under 
 different circumstances. How far the East India Company 
 is responsible for these defects, and how far it is our duty to 
 see that they are removed, will depend upon the view that 
 may be taken of the functions of government. If it be 
 considered that our position in India is simply to rule, that 
 is, to maintain our position and uphold our status as the 
 conquerors, then roads are mere military necessities, and 
 irrigation works are of very dubious advantage. But if our 
 position is to govern India, and to govern her so that we can 
 elevate her people by developing their material resourses,
 
 182 RESUME. 
 
 and aid ourselves by creating new markets for our manufac- 
 tures ; in such case, large expenditure by Government on 
 internal improvements is a profound necessity. If these 
 conditions be carried out, India, with her myriads of people, 
 will grow rapidly in wealth, and the consequence will 
 .be, that her power to absorb our manufactures will grow 
 rapidly also. With India thus growing, and with our 
 Colonial Empire absorbing our surplus population and each 
 year consuming larger quantities of our goods, the means 
 by which we can solve our present difficulty appear fairly 
 before us. 
 
 The condition of our country is fast changing, and we 
 are on the eve of a new national life. Through much 
 bloodshed and through many changes we have built up our 
 position of to-day, and noble as it is, it is yet chequered with 
 danger and full of warning. It is true, that our export trade 
 has grown in the past with sufficient rapidity to meet our 
 necessities, but there have been times, when, from the fact 
 of its not so growing, enormous misery and wide spread 
 destitution has been the result. Such was the state of 
 our country from 1836 to 1846, those ten years spoke of 
 bread riots, discontent and sedition, and we must not shut 
 our eyes to the fact, that since then we have passed through 
 strange and stirring episodes. Some twenty years ago the 
 Bank of England was fortified, and London in the possession 
 of the military; it was believed that the phantom of revolution 
 that had swept over Continental life would be re-awakened in 
 our own streets. The danger was imminent; for political dis- 
 content was surging through the land; chartist orators roused 
 the people to a sense of their misery and the mutterings of 
 revolution swept far and wide, and all this was so, because 
 trade was slack and poverty was everywhere ; these con- 
 ditions are once more reappearing, and will once more 
 produce the same results. It may be said that history
 
 RESUME, 183 
 
 chronicles our military triumphs, reproduces our state treaties 
 and dwells upon our royal pageants; but its real life lies far 
 lower, it is to be found in that silent growth of thought 
 that moulds our institutions and builds up the fabric of 
 human society, and it is thus that the well being of the people 
 to-day becomes one of vital importance. Everywhere the 
 conditions are unsound and unsatisfactory, poverty is stalking 
 through the land, and hunger, that great teacher in the past, 
 is also the great teacher in the present. The wild upheav- 
 ing of the first French revolution, which changed the entire 
 structure of European society had its origin in the same cause; 
 the want of bread. The warnings long preceded the event, 
 the passionate teachings of Rousseau and the bitter sarcasms 
 of Voltaire were bandied from mouth to mouth, and spread 
 throughout the land, because they appealed to existing sor- 
 rows, and the people who knew the depth of their own 
 misery, clung with passionate intensity to that teaching, 
 which promised a better future. 
 
 We too have had the teachings that were to regenerate 
 society ; and these panaceas appeared in Chartism, Socialism 
 and Land Schemes ; how far these ideas were true, how far 
 worked out, and how far opposed to the profoundest elements 
 of human life does not now matter, they were taught and 
 they were believed. That this could have been possible 
 marked clearly the state of the people at that time — marked 
 their sorrow and their poverty. That danger passed away 
 through the influence of an accident. The discovery of gold 
 in California and Australia and the consequent vivid awaken- 
 ing of our export trade found work for the people, and it 
 was under such influences that the dogmas of political 
 theorists and the dreams of philanthropists and philosophers 
 sank to their natural level. Under such influences the 
 thought of the people passed from the questions of revo- 
 lution to the construction of trades' unions and building
 
 184 RESUME. 
 
 societies. Once more we have lived past our prosperity, 
 and once more we stand in the position, where our trade is 
 checked whilst life is rapidly on the increase, and where, 
 through such adverse conditions, we are drifting back to the 
 same point once more to re-awaken our old discussions. 
 To-day the indications are everywhere around us, they may 
 be found in the uneasiness of society, in the special discus- 
 sions that now press forward in politics, in the broad and 
 often repeated assertion, that the land is the heritage of 
 the people, and that our national success is the success 
 of the few and not the success of the many. All these 
 signs are signs of warning, and it is well for us to note 
 their meaning. We are all too apt to forget how slight 
 is the structure of our past success, and how short is the 
 time that separated us from great danger — our commercial 
 greatness is limited by about twenty years — and immediately 
 behind that time, arose the threat of revolution. It is true 
 that we lived that difficulty down as we should have lived 
 down a greater, but the teaching is none the less real. Since 
 then we have had the vision of universal peace paraded before 
 us and the assertion that England would grow to be the 
 workshop of the world. That dream is already a dream of the 
 past: war has made itself felt, other nations have entered the 
 race, and although we are still the great traders of the world, 
 the singularity of our position has gone. America, Germany, 
 France, Switzerland and Belgium are all competing with us 
 in every market, and it is therefore necessary for us to note 
 the change of our circumstances and mould our position 
 into accordance with them. It is true that in the open race 
 we are no longer alone, but it is equally true that we have 
 still enormous advantages over all other nations and these 
 advantages only require utilizing to enable us once more to 
 bound forward in our career, and to distance all compe- 
 tition. Those advantages are to be found in the value
 
 RESUME. 185 
 
 of our Indian dependency and in the enormous area of our 
 Colonial Empire. Let us but aid India in accordance wit It 
 her requirements; let us but weld together our colonies so 
 as to form them into an integral part of our empire, let us 
 but utilize that money which now lies idle in our markets, 
 or seeks outlets in foreign loans ; let us but aid emigration 
 largely, freely and with well planned schemes, and the 
 growth of our commercial prosperity will be greater than the 
 most enthusiastic dreamer could picture. But these con- 
 ditions require energy, decision and care, those great 
 elements of English character, never more conspicuous 
 than when most required. 
 
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