CALIFORNIA 
 AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICE 
 
 CIRCULAR 39 
 FEBRUARY, 1930 
 
 The 1930 Agricultural Outlook 
 for California 
 
 CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 
 GIANNINI FOUNDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 
 
 PUBLISHED BY 
 
 THE COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE 
 
 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA 
 
 Cooperative Extension work in Agriculture and Home Economics, College of Agriculture, 
 University of California, and United States Department of Agriculture cooperating. Dis- 
 tributed in furtherance of the Acts of Congress of May 8 and June 30, 1914. B. H. Crocheron, 
 Director, California Agricultural Extension Service. 
 
 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE 
 
 BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA 
 
 1930 
 
CONTENTS 
 
 PAGE 
 
 Preface 3 
 
 Apples 4 
 
 Apricots 5 
 
 Cherries 7 
 
 Grapes 9 
 
 Peaches 12 
 
 Pears 15 
 
 Plums 17 
 
 Prunes 19 
 
 Oranges 21 
 
 Grapefruit 23 
 
 Lemons 25 
 
 Almonds 26 
 
 Walnuts 28 
 
 Beef Cattle 29 
 
 Dairy 31 
 
 Hogs 32 
 
 Poultry 33 
 
 Sheep 33 
 
 Asparagus 35 
 
 Beans 37 
 
 Cotton 38 
 
 Lettuce 39 
 
 Potatoes 40 
 
 Rice 41 
 
 Sugar Beets 42 
 
 Wheat 42 
 
 Barley 44 
 
THE 1930 AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 
 FOR CALIFORNIA* 
 
 Prepared under the direction of 
 
 H. R. Weixman 
 
 with collaboration of 
 
 E. W. Braun, E. C. Voorhies, S. W. Sheaji, and H. E. Erdman 
 
 PREFACE 
 
 This report presents a summary of the present available facts 
 bearing upon the future economic conditions of important farm 
 products in California. If farmers are to avoid the losses which result 
 from extreme expansion or contraction, they should consider carefully 
 the probable outlook w^hen increasing or decreasing acreage of crops 
 or numbers of livestock. Plans should be made on the most probable 
 outlook and not on the most optimistic outlook. Such an outlook need 
 not be mathematically exact to be helpful. Outlook reports are 
 designed to be of assistance in making plans and not in recording 
 results. 
 
 This report does not attempt to advise individual farmers as to 
 what they should or should not do. The statements herein necessarily 
 represent the state point of view and in many instances must be modi- 
 fied to meet local and individual conditions. Many conditions may 
 arise that will nullify the most careful estimates. It is believed, how- 
 ever, that the presentation of the more important facts bearing upon 
 the future economic conditions will be of benefit to farmers in adjust- 
 ing their production to market demands. 
 
 Adjustment of acreage or of breeding plans alone cannot, of 
 course, assure satisfactory profits. Reduction in costs, improvement 
 in quality, and efficiency in marketing are all important considera- 
 tions. Even in a time of declining prices, some farmers located on 
 land particularly suited to one crop may make more money by grow- 
 ing that crop than by planting another which is on a rising price level 
 but to which the land, climate, or market facilities are ill adapted. 
 Farmers need to consider both the probable future prices, as dis- 
 cussed in this circular, and the costs of production on their own 
 
 Paper No. 9. The Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. 
 
4 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 farm, or at least in their own locality. Recent cost and enterprise 
 efficiency studies, made in cooperation with the farm advisors' offices 
 in various counties, are presented in Agricultural Extension Circular 
 24. Readers of this circular are also referred to that publication. 
 
 In the preparation of this outlook report information has been 
 obtained from many sources. The Federal Outlook Report prepared 
 by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics has been quoted extensively 
 for those products grown throughout the United States. The Cali- 
 fornia Cooperative Crop Reporting Service, the Federal-State Divi- 
 sion of Markets, many cooperative marketing associations, and com- 
 mercial companies have furnished much information. 
 
 APPLES 
 
 According to the Federal Outlook Report the apple industry of 
 the United States has made a considerable recovery from the disturbed 
 conditions which accompanied the rapid and excessive expansion of 
 commercial plantings in the Northwest and other sections about 20 
 years ago. The drastic adjustments which followed this period of 
 over-planting have gradually placed the industry on a sounder 
 economic basis. There are still sufficient young trees in commercial 
 orchards, however, to maintain production at a high level for a period 
 of years, and in seasons when weather and other growing conditions 
 are especially favorable production will be so heavy as to be burden- 
 some. 
 
 In 33 of the states which produce over 90 per cent of the United 
 States apple crop, 25 to 30 per cent of the trees in commercial 
 orchards were less than 9 years old at the beginning of 1928, 
 and 65 to 70 per cent were less than 19 years old. In view of this 
 proportion of young trees in commercial orchards together wdth the 
 general tendencies toward an increased bearing life and an increased 
 productive capacity per tree, owing to improved orchard manage- 
 ment and to the larger proportion of orchards on better locations, it 
 seems reasonable to expect a further increase in commercial produc- 
 tion for several years. This prospective increase in commercial pro- 
 duction, however, will be partially offset by the declining production 
 in family orchards, which contain nearly one-third of the apple trees 
 in the United States. 
 
 Most of the increase in the commercial production of apples is 
 expected to occur in the barreled-apple states. Present indications 
 are that production in the Northwest is near its peak. During the 
 past five years production has averaged only 6 per cent larger than 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 5 
 
 during the previous five years. Recent plantings in that area have 
 been light and removals in the less favorable sections have continued. 
 In California the peak of production of Newtowns has apparently 
 been reached. About 93 per cent of the total acreage of Newtowns in 
 1928 was in bearing while only 7 per cent was nonbearing. Further- 
 more 24 per cent of the bearing acreage was over 31 years old. On 
 the other hand a further increase in the production of Gravensteins 
 is expected. In 1928 16 per cent of the total acreage of Gravensteins 
 was not in bearing while 21 per cent of the bearing acreage was not 
 in full bearing and only 4 per cent was over 31 years old. 
 
 APRICOTS 
 
 The outlook for apricots does not justify additional plantings 
 except in those localities where consistently large yields can be 
 obtained at a relatively low cost. 
 
 The commercial production of apricots in the United States is 
 practically confined to California. During the past decade there has 
 been a rapid expansion in bearing acreage in this state, rising from 
 46,100 acres in 1919 to 82,300 acres in 1929, an ancrease of 36,200 
 acres or 80 per cent. According to the forecasts of the California 
 Cooperative Crop Reporting Service, the upward trend in bearing 
 acreage will continue for the next three years, but at a slower rate. 
 In 1932 it is estimated that there will be 85,500 acres in bearing, a 
 total increase of 3200 acres over the bearing acreage in 1929, or an 
 increase of 1100 acres a year. The average increase between 1922 and 
 1929 was over 3000 acres a year, almost three times as large as the 
 average prospective increase during the next three years. 
 
 With yields during the coming years equal to the average of 
 recent years the trend of production in 1932 may be expected to be 
 around 210,000 tons. The average annual production during the five 
 years .1925-1929 amounted to 180,000 tons, about 30,000 tons, or 17 
 per cent, less than we may normally expect three years from now. 
 It is entirely possible, of course, that the production in any given 
 year may be much above the trend. Weather conditions throughout 
 the state as favorable to high yields as in 1923 could easily result in a 
 crop 35 per cent greater than the largest crop ever produced. 
 
 A part of the apricot crop has a three-way outlet ; it may be dried, 
 canned, or shipped fresh. During the past five years an average of 
 68 per cent of the commercial crop has been dried, 29 per cent canned, 
 and 3 per cent shipped fresh to eastern markets. 
 
6 California Agricultural Extension Service [Cm.c. 39 
 
 Dried Apricots. — The annual output of dried apricots has in- 
 creased from an average of 13,000 tons in 1920-1922 to an average 
 of 24,000 tons in 1927-1929, an increase of 9,000 tons or 85 per cent. 
 As a result the prices paid to growers have declined. The trend of 
 prices was at 17 cents a pound in 1921 and at 15 cents a pound in 
 1928. Prices in 1929 were considerably above the trend, largely a 
 result of the short fruit crop. While the apricot crop was larger in 
 1929 than in 1928, the production of nearly all other fruits was much 
 smaller. 
 
 The future trend in the output of dried apricots may be expected 
 to be upward in view of the prospective increase in total apricot pro- 
 duction, but the increase will probably not be as large as in the past. 
 Consequently, it is not likely that there will be as great a downward 
 trend in prices as that which has occurred. It must be expected, of 
 course, that in the future as in the past prices will be generally un- 
 profitable in some years, particularly when a large production of 
 apricots is accompanied by a large production of other fruits. 
 
 Exports of dried apricots from the United States were about 4 
 per cent larger in 1928-1929 than in 1927-1928 and about 35 per cent 
 larger than the average annual exports between 1924-1925 and 1927- 
 1928. A considerable part of the increase in exports since 1924-1925 
 has gone to Germany. In that year Germany imported only 1540 
 tons from the United States as against 3870 tons in 1928-1929. 
 
 Canning Apricots. — The canning-apricot situation is closely re- 
 lated to the dried-apricot situation. When the price of canning apri- 
 cots is high, growers send a large proportion of their crop to the 
 canneries; when it is low they dry a larger proportion. 
 
 The pack of canned apricots in the state has increased from an 
 average of 2,094,000 cases in 1921-1924 to an average of 3,142,000 
 cases in 1927-1929, an increase of 50 per cent. This increase in the 
 pack has been accompanied by a downward trend in prices to grow- 
 ers. In 1921 the trend of prices was at $72 a ton and in 1928 at $62 
 a ton. The 1929 price averaged about $75 a ton, chiefly because of 
 the very short crop of canning peaches. 
 
 Growers should not plant additional apricots in the expectation 
 that the high prices received in 1929 will prevail during the coming 
 years. The 1929 canned pack of apricots was over a million cases 
 larger than the 1927 pack, for which growers received $70 a ton. 
 The 1927 pack, however, did not move readily into consumption and 
 about one-third of it was carried over. The pack in 1928 amounted to 
 2,097,000 cases, but with the carryover from 1927 of 1,002,000 cases 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 7 
 
 the supply available for consumptipon was approximately equal to 
 the 1927 pack. In order to dispose of that supply canners had to 
 reduce their selling* prices below those asked at the beginning of the 
 1927 season. While the canners' opening prices in 1929 were even 
 higher than in 1927, indications are that the present large pack is 
 not moving readily into consumption. Fortunately, the future in- 
 crease in the pack of canned apricots is not likely to be as great as 
 in the past. Some increase, however, is in prospect, which may cause 
 a further downward trend in prices. 
 
 Exports of canned apricots from the United States were smaller 
 in 1928-29 than in any year since 1923-24. The United Kingdom, 
 although continuing to be the largest foreign market for our canned 
 apricots, was less important this past year than the year before. Only 
 402,560 cases were exported to the United Kingdom in 1928-29 as 
 against 583,850 cases in 1927-28. On the other hand, exports to 
 France increased from 24,880 cases in 1927-28 to 59,490 cases in 
 1928-29. 
 
 Fresh Apricots. — Although the interstate shipments of fresh apri- 
 cots have increased gradually, they now afford an outlet for only a 
 small proportion of the crop. The chief limiting factor in shipping 
 fresh apricots to eastern markets is the extreme perishability of the 
 fruit. The necessity for handling them quickly makes it desirable 
 to sell them in the few large auction markets rather than in the many 
 private-sale markets. Consequently, the distribution of fresh apri- 
 cots has been limited. The widening of the markets depends mainly 
 upon improvement in harvesting, packing, and refrigeration methods. 
 Even if it were possible, however, to find profitable markets for double 
 the present interstate shipments, they w^ould provide an outlet for 
 only a small part of the prospective increase in production. 
 
 CHERRIES 
 
 Unless the domestic markets for maraschino and glace cherries 
 can be greatly expanded, it does not appear that large additional 
 plantings of Royal Ann cherries are justified. Nor, in view of the 
 large increase in production already in prospect, does it appear that 
 the acreage of cherries for fresh shipment can be profitably expanded, 
 except in particularly favorable localities. 
 
 From 1921 to 1926 there was a gradual increase in the bearing 
 acreage of cherries in California, amoiuiting on the average to 
 almost 400 acres a year. During the past three years the increase has 
 been much more rapid, amounting to about 800 acres a year. Indi- 
 
8 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 cations are that this rapid increase will be maintained during the 
 next few years. In 1929 there were 13,260 bearing- acres in the 
 state and 5647 nonbearing acres. The California Crop Reporting 
 Service estimates that by 1932 the bearing acreage will amount to 
 16,300 acres, an increase of 23 per cent over the bearing acreage in 
 1929. 
 
 The production of cherries, however, has not kept pace with the 
 increase in bearing acreage. Conditions have been unfavorable to 
 high yields in the past few years. The average yield per acre for 
 the state as a whole was only 1.33 tons during the past six years, 
 whereas the average yield during the five years from 1919 to 1923 
 amounted to 1.63 tons. The available information indicates that at 
 least a part of the decline in yield is a temporary and not a perma- 
 nent condition. Similar periods of low yields followed by periods 
 of higher yields have occurred at two other times during the past 
 25 years. With yields per acre equal to the average of the past six 
 years, the trend of production in 1932 may be expected to be at 
 around 21,000 tons. But if yields should average as high as they 
 did between 1919 and 1923 the trend of production in 1932 may reach 
 26,000 tons. The average annual production during the past three 
 years amounted to 15,200 tons. 
 
 Fresh Cherries. — Although many of the other western states pro- 
 duce large quantities of sweet cherries for fresh consumption, they 
 do not come on the market until our season is nearly completed. 
 Consequently, they do not compete to any serious extent with our 
 fruit. 
 
 The trend of interstate shipment of fresh cherries from this state 
 has been upward, rising from 570 cars in 1921 to 730 cars in 1929, 
 an increase of 33 per cent. This upward trend may be expected to 
 continue, since about 65 per cent of the present nonbearing acreage 
 of cherries in the state is planted to black varieties which are shipped 
 fresh. 
 
 Thus far the demand for California fresh cherries has kept pace 
 with the upward trend of shipments. Consequently, there has been 
 no downward trend in prices. Whether the demand for cherries will 
 continue to increase cannot be definitely determined from the data 
 now available. However, there is as yet no evidence that it has been 
 checked. But even with a further increase in demand it does not 
 appear that the level of prices will rise above the average of recent 
 years if the prospective increase in shipments materializes. And if 
 conditions are particularly favorable to large yields there may even 
 be some decline in the trend of prices. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 9 
 
 'Canned Cherries. — The Royal Ann cherry is the principal variety 
 used for canning, and a considerable part of- the Royal Ann crop is 
 so nsed. As contrasted Avith our fresh cherries, our canned cherries 
 come in direct competition with those packed in Oregon, Washington, 
 Idaho, and Utah. Some of the states east of the Rocky Mountains also 
 produce large quantities of canning cherries, but their cherries are 
 the sour varieties. Consequently, they do not compete seriously with 
 our sweet cherries. Although there has been a downward trend in 
 the canned pack in this state since 1919, there has been a pronounced 
 upward trend in Oregon and Washington. The increase in those two 
 states has more than offset the decline in California. The total pack 
 of canned cherries of the Pacific Coast has increased about 18 per cent 
 in the past nine years. The increase in the pack of canned cherries, 
 however, has been small as compared with the increases in most of 
 the canned fruits. 
 
 The demand for canned cherries has just about kept pace with the 
 relatively small increase in the pack. Consequently, there has been 
 no pronounced downward trend in prices paid to growers. 
 
 Unofficial estimates indicate that there are about 2,500 acres of 
 nonbearing Royal Ann trees in the three Pacific Coast states. When 
 this acreage comes into bearing production will be increased. While 
 canning may be expected to provide an outlet for a gradual increase 
 in the supply of Royal Anns, it does not appear that a very large 
 increase in the canned pack can be sold except at lower prices. 
 
 Maraschino Cherries. — In recent years the manufacture of mara- 
 schino and glace cherries has provided an annual outlet for more 
 than 5,000,000 pounds of sulfured and brined Royal Ann cherries that 
 were produced on the Pacific Coast. This amount, however, has 
 constituted only a part of the sulfured and brined cherries which the 
 United States annually uses in the manufacture of maraschino and 
 glace cherries. During the past six years the total imports of cherries, 
 most of wdiich were sulfured and brined cherries that had been 
 stemmed and pitted, amounted to an average of 17,000,000 pounds 
 a year. 
 
 GRAPES 
 
 The outlook for additional plantings of grapes is unfavorable. 
 Prices are likely to continue at a relatively low level unless further 
 reductions are made in the acreage or large additional markets are 
 developed. Because of the ease with which certain varieties of grapes 
 can be utilized for raisin, table consumption, or juice, any substantial 
 
10 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 change in the prices of one class of grapes is likely to be reflected in 
 the prices of the other .classes. 
 
 As a result of unfavorable weather conditions the 1929 yields per 
 acre in California were about 20 per cent below the average of the 
 past five years. The 1929 crop, which is now estimated to be 1,751,000 
 tons on a fresh basis, was the smallest since 1924, and only 75 per 
 cent as large as the crops of 1927 and 1928. In each of those two 
 years, however, about 150,000 tons were not harvested. With yields 
 equal to the average of the past five years the total production during 
 the next few years may average only about 5 per cent less than the 
 tonnage harvested in 1927 and 1928. 
 
 The total bearing acreage of grapes in the state, which practically 
 doubled between 1919 and 1927, has experienced a small decrease dur- 
 ing the past two years. In 1929 there were 639,900 acres in bearing, 
 as against 658,800 acres in 1927, a decrease of 4.4 per cent. By 1931 
 it is expected that there will be a further decrease in bearing acreage 
 of about 2 per cent. But it appears that heavy production is in pros- 
 pect during the next few years, whenever weather conditions are 
 favorable to high yields, unless, of course, the prospective rate of 
 decline in bearing acreage is greatly accelerated or the vineyards are 
 much neglected. 
 
 Of the total bearing acreage of grapes in California in 1929, 51 
 per cent was classified as raisin grapes, 28 per cent as juice grapes, 
 and 21 per cent as table grapes. 
 
 Raisins. — The bearing acreage of raisin grapes in California in- 
 creased from 170,000 acres in 1919 to 347,200 acres in 1926, when the 
 peak in bearing acreage was reached. Since 1926 there has been a 
 gradual decline. In 1929 the bearing acreage was 21,100 acres smaller 
 than in 1926, a decrease of 6 per cent. This decline will probably 
 continue during the next few 3^ears. By 1931 it is expected that the 
 bearing acreage will be around 311,700 acres, 4 per cent smaller than 
 in 1929 and 11 per cent smaller than in 1926, 
 
 The production of raisins in California increased from an average 
 of 224,000 tons in 1921-1923 to an average of 281,000 tons in 1926- 
 1928. During the same period there was also a substantial increase 
 in raisin and currant production in foreign countries. The total pro- 
 duction of raisins in Australia, Smyrna, and Spain amounted to an 
 average of 72,000 tons in 1921-1923 as against an average of 104,000 
 tons in 1926-1928, and the total production of currants in Greece and 
 Australia increased from an average of 131,000 tons in 1921-1923 to 
 an average of 173,000 tons in 1926-1928. 
 
1^30] '£iij.^ i9;^Q Agricultural Outlook for California 11 
 
 As a result of the large world production of raisins and currants, 
 prices of California raisins have been relatively low during recent 
 years. In no year since 1921 have the average prices paid to growers 
 been as high as 4 cents a pound and in four of the past eight years 
 prices have been 3 cents a pound or less. Prices in 1929 averaged 
 about 3.5 cents a pound. The 1929 world crop of currants and raisins 
 is now estimated to be 465,200 tons, about 17 per cent less than the 
 average crop from 1926 to 1928. 
 
 The relatively low prices of raisins since 1921 led to a substantial 
 increase in the fresh shipments of both Thompson Seedless and Mus- 
 cats. According to estimates of the California Cooperative Crop 
 Reporting Service, an average of 55,000 tons of raisin grapes were 
 marketed fresh during the three years of 1920-1922 as against an 
 average of 278,000 tons during the three years of 1926-1928. The 
 total fresh shipments in ca riots of Muscats and Thompson Seedless 
 have increased from 4700 cars in 1921 to an average of 17,000 cars 
 during the past three years. 
 
 Table Grapes. — The large increase in the fresh shipments of raisin 
 grapes relieved the raisin situation to some extent but augmented the 
 rapidly increasing shipments of table and juice stock. The total 
 interstate shipments of fresh grapes rose steadily from 30,200 cars 
 in 1921 to 71,100 cars in 1925. In 1927 and 1928 shipments were even 
 larger than in 1925, but in 1929 they were about 20 per cent smaller. 
 
 As a result of the large increase in fresh shipments between 1921 
 and 1928 there was a pronounced decline in prices. The delivered- 
 auction prices of the principal varieties of grapes average $2.11 a lug 
 in 1921 as against an average of $1.19 a lug during the two years of 
 1927 and 1928. In 1929 prices averaged $1.36 a lug, the highest since 
 1925. 
 
 The average delivered-auction prices of the two principal varieties 
 of table grapes, Malagas and Tokays, declined from $2.13 a lug in 
 1921 to $1.26 a lug in 1925. Since 1925, however, there has been no 
 further downward trend. During the three years of 1926-1928 prices 
 have averaged $1.27 a lug. In 1929 Malages and Tokays brought an 
 average of $1.39 a lug, the highest prices that have been received 
 since 1924. Shipments of table stock up to November 10, 1929, 
 amounted to 18,328 cars as against 23,005 cars for the same period in 
 1928. Most of that decrease occurred in the shipments of Tokays, 
 Malagas, and Emperors. Shipments of Thompson Seedless in 1929 
 were almost 1000 cars larger than in 1928. During the past few 
 years Thompson Seedless have gained considerable favor as a table 
 
12 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 ^rape. In 1925 only 2757 cars of this variety were shipped as table 
 stock, as against 5020 cars in 1929. Delivered-anction prices of 
 Thompson Seedless in 1929 averaged $1.48 a Ing, as compared with 
 $1.37 a lug for Malagas, $1.41 a lug for Tokays, and $1.62 a lug for 
 Emperors. 
 
 The bearing acreage of table grapes in the state increased from 
 60,000 acres in 1921 to 143,000 acres in 1927, when the peak in bear- 
 ing acreage was reached. In 1929 the bearing acreage was 10,100 
 acres smaller than in 1927. This downward trend is likely to con- 
 tinue during the next few years, although the amount of the decline 
 from 1929 to 1931 is estimated to be only 2900 acres, or 2 per cent. 
 
 Juice Grapes. — Until 1927 juice grapes commanded a premium 
 over table grapes. From 1924 to 1927, however, there was a gradual 
 decrease in that premium and during the past two years table grapes 
 have brought higher prices than juice grapes. In 1921 the delivered- 
 auction prices of Alicante Bouschets, Carignanes, and Zinfandels 
 average $2.46 a lug. By 1928 the average prices of these three varie- 
 ties had declined to $1.09 a lug. In 1929 as the result of smaller ship- 
 ments prices advanced to an average of $1.19 a lug. Shipments of all 
 juice stock in 1929 amounted to 35,211 cars as against 41,815 cars 
 in 1928. 
 
 There is some evidence that the demand for juice grapes has fallen 
 off in the last two years. In 1928 and 1929 shipments of juice stock 
 were smaller than from 1925 to 1927, yet the clelivered-auction prices 
 were lower. Whether this apparent slackening in demand will prove 
 permanent or only temporary is uncertain. But in view of the heavy 
 production of juice grapes that is in prospect, indications are that 
 the next few years may be difficult ones. 
 
 As contrasted with the prospective decline in the bearing acreage 
 of raisin and table grapes it is expected that the bearing acreage of 
 juice grapes will be even larger during the next few years than in 
 1929. By 1931 it is estimated that there will be 187,000 acres of 
 juice grapes in bearing, approximately 6100 acres more than in 1929. 
 
 PEACHES 
 
 Clingstone. — The outlook for clingstone peaches does not warrant 
 large additional plantings at this time. The production already in 
 prospect may be difficult to sell at prices profitable to the majority 
 of the growers. Unless many trees are removed or the orchards are 
 much neglected, the peak of production is not likely to be reached 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 13 
 
 until 1931 or 1932. At that time it is probable that the trend of 
 production will be about 15 per cent hig^her than in 1928. 
 
 The total acreage of clingstone peaches in California in 1929 
 amounted to about 86,600 acres. Of that amount 76,000 acres were 
 classified as bearing and 10,600 acres as nonbearing. Approximately 
 12,800 acres, or 17 per cent of the bearing acreage, were only four 
 and five years of age, and consequently, will not be in full bearing for 
 several years. Furthermore, only 23,100 acres, or 30 per cent of the 
 bearing acreage, were over ten years of age. It is evident, therefore, 
 that the normal loss in acreage as the result of old age is not likely to 
 be large during the next few years. It is entirely possible, of course, 
 that many trees might be taken out earlier than normally. In 1928 
 approximately 4900 acres were removed. About 1500 acres, however, 
 would normally have come out in that year. 
 
 The canned pack of peaches in California, which is practically 
 equivalent to the national pack, increased from nearly 6,000,000 
 cases in 1921 to almost 15,000,000 cases in 1928. This great increase, 
 however, was retarded by the steady decline in the quantity of free- 
 stones canned. In 1921 about 1,633,000 cases of freestones were 
 canned, in 1928 only 164,000 cases. Only a small further decline in 
 the freestone pack can occur, and in some years, as in 1929, it may 
 even be expanded. 
 
 As a result of the pronounced upward trend in the pack there was 
 a downward trend in prices paid to growers, falling from an average 
 of $46 a ton in 1921-1922 to an average of $21 a ton in 1927-1928. 
 The high price paid for clingstone peaches in 1929 can be directly 
 attributed to the very short crop, which amounted to only 179,000 
 tons as against a harvest tonnage of 344,000 tons in 1928. 
 
 It is impossible to measure accurately the future trend of prices 
 with the data now available. However, the fact that in the past it 
 has been necessary to lower prices in order to induce people to eat 
 more canned peaches, together with the prospective increase in pro- 
 duction, indicates that the next few years may be trying ones. After 
 that, however, the situation may improve. There probably will be 
 some increase in the demand for canned peaches, and if a small 
 downward trend in production occurs after about 1932, such as is now 
 indicated, the situation in later years will be decidedly more favorable. 
 The favorable prospect, however, is in part based upon the assump- 
 tion that plantings will be relatively small. There is probably no 
 better way of preventing the clingstone peach industry from return- 
 ing to a more favorable position than by planting a large additional 
 acreage during the next few years. 
 
14 California Agricultural Extension Service [C'ikc. 39 
 
 Freestones. — As contrasted with the rapid increase in the produc- 
 tion of cling"stone peaches, our production of freestone peaches has 
 actually declined during recent years. The average annual produc- 
 tion of freestones in California during the three years of 1920-1922 
 amounted to 227,000 tons as against an average of 196,000 tons dur- 
 ing the three years of 1926-1928, a decrease of 14 per cent. All of 
 this decline has been in canning peaches. During the three years of 
 1920-1922 an average of 35,000 tons of freestones were canned, while 
 in 1928 less than 4000 tons were canned. The output of dried peaches 
 and the interstate shipments of fresh peaches have remained at 
 approximately the same levels. If the downward trend in total pro- 
 duction continues, the output of either dried or fresh peaches or both 
 will tend downward. 
 
 The available data on the acreage of freestones in California indi- 
 cates that a further decline in production is in prospect during the 
 next few years. Of the 67,400 acres of freestones in this state in 1929, 
 60,400 acres, or 90 per cent, were in bearing and only 6700 acres, 
 or 10 per cent, were nonbearing. Furthermore, 71 per cent of the 
 present bearing acreage is eleven years of age and older. Since the 
 average commercial life of a peach tree is only 20 or 21 years, it is 
 evident that a considerable decrease in bearing acreage due to old 
 age may be expected. Nor is the number of young trees now planted 
 sufficient to replace the loss that will normally occur in the old trees. 
 
 A considerable part of this prospective decline is likely to be in 
 the principal drying peach varieties. The total acreage of Muirs and 
 Lovells in 1929 amounted to 35,800 acres, of which 94 per cent were 
 bearing and only 6 per cent nonbearing. Furthermore, 75 per cent 
 of the bearing acres were eleven years of age and older. 
 
 During the past five years foreign markets have taken an increas- 
 ingly larger proportion of our dried peaches. Approximately 22 per 
 cent of the 1928 crop was exported, as compared with 19 per cent of 
 the 1927 crop, 12.4 per cent of the 1926 crop, 10.3 per cent of the 
 1925 crop, and 9.5 per cent of the 1924 crop. 
 
 Production of fresh peaches in the United States is now at about 
 the peak and present indications are that there will be a decline in 
 the trend of production during the next few years. This decline, how- 
 ever, is not expected to be rapid ; and whenever conditions are favor- 
 able to high yields heavy production and low prices are likely to 
 prevail. 
 
 In the five state of Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ten- 
 nessee and Arkansas commercial plantings in recent years have not 
 been sufficient to maintain the present bearing average. The propor- 
 
1930] Tpie 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 15 
 
 tion of young trees in these five states is now much less than four 
 years ago. In 1929 only 25 per cent of the trees were less than six 
 years of age as against 67 per cent in 1925. In Georgia about 30 per 
 cent of the trees that were in commercial orchards in 1925 have been 
 taken out or abandoned, and plantings have only been sufficient to 
 replace one-third of them. More than 80 per cent of the decrease in 
 the number of trees, however, has occurred in the southern district 
 from which the earliest shipments are made. 
 
 PEARS 
 
 Unless disease takes heavy toll from the industry, the prospective 
 increase in the production of pears is likely to be sufficient to cause a 
 do\Miward trend in prices during the next few years. The most 
 uncertain element in the future of California production is the prob- 
 able damage from black-end, a disease chiefly affecting pears grown 
 on Jap root. 
 
 During the past decade there has been an extraordinary expansion 
 in the bearing acreage and production of pears in this state. In 1919 
 there were 23,000 acres in bearing and in 1929, 69,500 acres — an 
 increase of 46,500 acres. Production has almost kept pace with the 
 increase in bearing acreage. The average production during the three 
 years of 1919-1921 amounted to 101,000 tons as against an average 
 of 204,000 tons in 1926-1928. In 1929, as a result of very unfavor- 
 able weather conditions, the crop was reduced to 186,000 tons. 
 
 According to the forecasts of the California Cooperative Crop 
 Reporting Service the upward trend in bearing acreage may be ex- 
 pected to continue. It is estimated that by 1932 the bearing acreage 
 will amount to about 82,200 acres, an increase of 12,700 acres, or 18 
 per cent, over the bearing acreage in 1929. If yields per acre during 
 the next few years equal the average of the past ten years, the trend 
 of production by 1932 will be about 35 per cent above the 204,000 
 tons average of the three years 1926-1928. Nor is it likely that the 
 peak of production will be reached in 1932. Of the 94,000 acres of 
 pears in the state in 1929, about 26 per cent was nonbearing. Further- 
 more, only 36 per cent of the bearing acreage was in full bearing 
 while 64 per cent was in partial bearing. 
 
 About 87 per cent of the total pear acreage in California in 1929 
 was Bartletts and 13 per cent late varieties. Of the 81,500 acres of 
 Bartletts 23 per cent was nonbearing and 77 per cent bearing. Only 
 37 per cent of the bearing acreage, however, was in full bearing. 
 
16 California Agricultural Extension Service [Oirc. 39 
 
 The Bartlett pear has a three-way outlet : it may be shipped fresh, 
 canned, or dried. During the past five years approximately 53 per 
 cent of the California crop has been shipped fresh, 34 per cent 
 canned, and 13 per cent dried. 
 
 Fortunately, during most of our shipping season, California fresh 
 Bartlett pears meet with little competition from pears produced 
 elsewhere. The great bulk of California Bartletts reach eastern 
 markets by the first of September and are sold before supplies from 
 Oregon, Washington, and the eastern states become heavy. The inter- 
 state shipments of fresh pears from California, which include a small 
 proportion of late varieties, have risen from an average of 4860 cars 
 in 1920-1922 to an average of 9200 cars in 1926-1928. This rapid 
 increase in shipments, however, resulted in only a small downward 
 trend in prices. If the demand for California Bartletts had not 
 increased substantially, however, prices would have declined much 
 faster. With interstate shipments of 9600 cars in 1928 California 
 Bartletts averaged $2.95 a box in New York City. It is estimated 
 that in 1921, when the demand was considerably less, 9600 cars would 
 have sold for only about $2.60 a box. In 1929 the average price of 
 California Bartletts at New York was $3.70 a box. The much higher 
 price received in 1929 as compared with 1928 can largely be accounted 
 for by the smaller interstate shipments of pears — about 28 per cent 
 less than in 1928 — and the smaller supply of competing fruits. There 
 will probably be a further increase in the demand for fresh Bartlett 
 pears, but unless the demand is increased faster than it has in the 
 past, the prospective increase in interstate shipments will probably 
 be sufficient to cause a further gradual downward trend in prices. 
 
 During the last three years an average of about 22,000 tons, or 
 11 per cent, of the California pear crop has been estimated as fall 
 and winter varieties. In 1928 California late shipments amounted 
 to about 1900 cars, or about 20 per cent of total pear shipments by 
 rail out of the state. Unlike our Bartletts, most of these late varieties 
 are shipped after the middle of September, competing with eastern 
 pears and with the rapidly increasing production of late pears from 
 Oregon and Washington. Annual pear shipments from the Pacific 
 Coast after the middle of September — the best available indicator of 
 the trend of winter pear production — are now three times the normal 
 movement from the coast ten years ago. The percentage of trees still 
 to come into bearing is larger than for Bartletts, indicating that pro- 
 duction of winter pears is likely to increase even more rapidly than 
 that of Bartletts during the next few years. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 17 
 
 About 25 per cent of the entire Pacific Coast pear acreage consists 
 of late varieties. They constitute between 45 and 50 per cent of the 
 Northwest acreage, and about 13 per cent of the California acreage. 
 Of the 12,000 acres of fall and winter varieties in the state, 72 per 
 cent are less than 9 years old compared with 46 per cent in the case 
 of Bartletts. Although the proportion of such young trees in the 
 Northwest is considerably less than in California, there is sufficient 
 young acreage to indicate further rapid increases in winter pear 
 production in that section as well as in California. 
 
 Since 1921 rapidly increasing production of winter pears on the 
 Pacific Coast has caused the prices of Bosc and Cornice to decline 
 much more raipdly than fresh Bartlett prices. As a result the 
 premium in their favor has shrunk so much that growers' returns per 
 box at the orchard are now only about the same as for Bartletts. 
 Although the price premium in favor of Anjous has not decreased in 
 recent years, the big prospective increases in its production and that 
 of other late varieties on the coast indicate that the price of all winter 
 pears will probably be lower during the next few years, unless better 
 adjustment of production to demand is brought about and big strides 
 made in increasing demand and otherwise improving distribution. 
 Considering the peculiar difficulties of producing good yields of some 
 varieties of late pears and the lower prices in view, caution suggests 
 that new plantings should be made only in localities definitely known 
 to be well adapted to producing large yields of excellent quality. 
 
 PLUMS 
 
 Judging from the available facts it does not appear that the trend 
 of plum prices is likely to fall materially during the next few years, 
 but neither is there likely to be any pronounced upward trend in 
 prices. About all that can reasonably be expected is that the level of 
 prices prevailing since 1921 will be maintained. 
 
 During the past decade there has been a rapid expansion in the 
 bearing acreage and production of plums in California. Between 1919 
 and 1929 the bearing acreage doubled. According to the forecasts of 
 the California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service the upward trend 
 in bearing acreage will continue, but at a slower rate. By 1932 it is 
 expected that there will be about 35,900 acres in bearing, an increase 
 of 1700 acres over the bearing acreage in 1929. This prospective 
 increase is smaller than that which has occurred. During the three 
 vears from 1926 to 1929 there was an increase of over 4000 acres while 
 
18 California Agricultural Extension Service [Cmc 39 
 
 during" the previous three-year period, 1924-1926, there was an 
 increase of over 6000 acres. 
 
 Based upon the forecast of bearing acreage, it appears that the 
 trend of production in 1932 will be around 72,000 tons, assuming that 
 yields during the coming years equal the average of recent years. The 
 average annual production during the four years 1925-1928, amounted 
 to 61,000 tons — 11,000 tons, or 18 per cent, less than we may normally 
 expect three years from now. 
 
 Although plums are produced in other sections of the United 
 States, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, they do not compete 
 seriously with California fresh plums, the bulk of which are shipped 
 during the three months of May, elune, and July. During this period 
 there are practically no shipments from other states. By the time 
 their shipments become heavy our plums are practically out of the 
 markets. 
 
 Although the interstate shipments of fresh plums from California 
 have fluctuated widely from year to year, there has been a gradual 
 upward trend, rising from an average of 3065 cars in 1920-1922 to 
 an average of 4500 cars in 1926-1928. This upward trend in ship- 
 ments, however, did not result in a downward trend in prices. During 
 the past nine years there has been no definite upward or downward 
 trend in the prices of California plums in the eastern markets. This 
 is evidence that the demand for our plums has increased. Consumers 
 are buying a larger quantity now and are paying as much per pound 
 for them on the average as before. 
 
 Prices at New York in 1929 averaged over 40 per cent higher than 
 in 1928. The high prices were chiefly the result of the short plum 
 crop. Interstate shipments from California amounted to only 2700 
 cars in 1929 as against 4670 cars in 1928. It cannot be expected, of 
 course, that the high prices received in 1929 will prevail during the 
 coming years. In view of the prospective increase in production it is 
 likely that shipments of plums from the state will be even larger on 
 the average during the next few years than they were in 1928. 
 
 A small quantity of California plums are canned each year, 
 amounting on the average to around 5 per cent of the crop. There has 
 been no apparent tendency during recent years for our canned pack 
 to increase, although there has been a material increase in the canned 
 pack of plums and prunes in the Pacific Northwest. With the steadily 
 increasing supply of other canned fruits it does not appear that 
 canning will offer an outlet for any substantial increase in the produc- 
 tion of plums except at lower prices. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 19 
 
 PRUNES 
 
 Growers should not expect the very high prices for prunes which 
 prevailed in 1929 to continue during the coming years. These 
 unusually high prices were largely the result of an abnormally small 
 world crop of prunes, which is now estimated at only 154,000 tons an 
 against 246,000 tons in 1928, 299,000 tons in 1927 and a three-year 
 average, 1926-1928, of 265,000 tons. With weather conditions during 
 the next few years as favorable to high yields as the average of recent 
 years it is likely that the world commercial crop of prunes will average 
 fully as large as in the three years of 1926-1928. 
 
 In the past decade there has been a pronounced upward trend in 
 the world output of prunes. The average world commercial produc- 
 tion (excluding Jugoslavian domestic consumption) in 1920-1922 
 amounted to 204,000 tons as against an average of 265,000 tons in 
 1926-1928, an increase of 30 per cent. As a result of the upward trend 
 in the world output of prunes the trend of prices to California growers 
 has been downward, falling from an average of about 9 cents a pound 
 for 40-50 's in 1921-1922 to an average of about 6 cents a pound for 
 40-50 'sin 1927-1928. 
 
 In California production increased from an average of 109,000 
 tons in 1920-1922 to an average of 198,000 tons in 1926-1928. The 
 1929 crop was reduced to 103,000 tons because of the very unfavorable 
 weather conditions. Indications are that the level of production during 
 the next few years, however, will be as large on the average as from 
 1926 to 1928. Although the yields per acre during the coming years 
 will probably not average as high as in 1926-1928, because in the 
 latter two years of that period they were considerably above normal, 
 the larger acreage that is expected to be in bearing will, with normal 
 yields, produce crops about the same size as the average of those three 
 years. The bearing acreage in 1927 amounted to 165,160 acres. It is 
 estimated that the bearing acreage in 1930 will amount to 179,900 
 acres, and in 1931 to 181,200 acres. For a few years thereafter, how- 
 ever, it is expected that the bearing acreage will remain about 
 stationary. 
 
 The Pacific Northwest is the only prune-producing section of the 
 world that had a large crop in 1929. The 1929 crop in that section 
 is now estimated at 36,000 tons. This is about 10,000 tons larger 
 than the average crop between 1922 and 1927. Although no immediate 
 
20 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ 39 
 
 increase in the number of trees is expected, future production is likely 
 to average even larger than from 1922 to 1927, since a large proportion 
 of the trees are now just in their prime. 
 
 The limited information that is available indicates that the French 
 prune crop is not likely to be any larger during the coming years than 
 it has been in recent years. Production in France has fluctuated 
 widely from year to year but has averaged about 9000 tons during 
 the last ten years. The 1929 crop, although larger than in 1928, 
 amounted to less than 4000 tons. 
 
 During the past three years there has been a steady decline in the 
 exports of prunes from Jugoslavia, falling from 52,000 tons in 1926 
 to 12,000 tons in 1929. According to Mr. M. J. Newhouse, who made 
 a survey of the Jugoslavian prune industry in 1929, a number of 
 factors contributed to this decline. Among the more important ones 
 were a decrease in the number of trees, reduced yield per tree, the 
 increased use of plums in jams and brandy, and the increased exports 
 of fresh plums due to the unfavorable prices of dried prunes in recent 
 years, and the improvement in methods of packing and railway trans- 
 portation. Some of these factors, however, may be temporary rather 
 than permanent in their influence. While there is some doubt as to 
 whether the new plantings at the present time are keeping pace with 
 the tree mortality, there is sufficient land in the low foothills, with 
 good exposure and suitable soil, to maintain an important industry. 
 Peasants are inclined to view the tree losses that have occurred as an 
 opportunity for starting a young and vigorous orchard, since abun- 
 dant new stock is available in the peasant's own hedgerows or in the 
 nurseries at a very small cost. A scale that is now doing much damage 
 is not difficult to control, and if new plantings are given sufficient 
 space and not pruned too high they need not suffer the fate of the old 
 orchards. The unfavorable climatic conditions, which have been partly 
 responsible for the low yields, may not occur again for many years. 
 On the other hand, it is probable that the shipments of fresh plums 
 will continue to increase. Mr. Newhouse points out that while the 
 exports of prunes from Jugoslavia during the next few years will be 
 lower than in the years prior to and immediately following the war, 
 when they averaged about 50,000 tons annually, they will neither con- 
 tinue to decline as they have done during the past three years nor 
 remain at their present low level. 
 
 Exports of prunes from the United States in 1928-29 were the 
 largest in the history of the industry. In that year a total of 134,740 
 tons, or 60 per cent of the crop, were exported. During the previous 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 21 
 
 three years an average of 92,000 tons, or 50 per cent of the average 
 production, was exported. The principal foreign markets for our 
 prunes in order of their importance are Germany, the United King- 
 dom, France, and Canada. During recent years these four countries 
 have taken around 70 per cent of our total exports. 
 
 ORANGES 
 
 Navels. — The available facts point to an upward trend in the ship- 
 ments of both oranges and grapefruit at the time California Navels 
 are marketed. Although it is probable that the peak of production of 
 Navels in this state has been reached, Florida and Texas are capable 
 of producing materially larger crops of citrus fruits than they have 
 yet produced, whenever conditions are favorable to high yields. 
 
 In 1928 the bearing acreage of oranges in Florida amounted to 
 155,000 acres, 50 per cent larger than in 1924. This upward trend is 
 likely to continue during the next few years, since in 1928 approxi- 
 mately 40,000 acres were not yet in bearing. The production of 
 oranges in Florida, during recent years, however, has not kept pace 
 with the increase in bearing acreage. During three of the past four 
 years conditions were particularly unfavorable to high yields. The 
 small crop of 1925-26 was largely the result of neglect arising out of 
 the real estate boom. The 1926-27 crop was injured by frost and hur- 
 ricane, and the 1927-28 crop by frost and drought. In 1928-29, how- 
 ever, yields per acre were materially higher, and with the larger 
 bearing acreage the crop was the largest ever produced in the state. 
 Present indications are that the 1929-30 crop will be about 30 per cent 
 smaller than last year. 
 
 Texas is also likel}^ to become a more important factor in the pro- 
 duction of oranges. The shipping season in Texas, as in Florida, prac- 
 tically coincides with that of our Navels. In 1928 there were approxi- 
 mately 18,900 acres of oranges in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of 
 Texas, of which only 25 per cent were in bearing. 
 
 In addition, the large prospective increase in the shipments of 
 grapefruit during the winter and spring months will probably add 
 further to the competition of our Navels (see page 23). 
 
 Prices of California Navels in 1928-29 were the lowest since 
 1923-24 and only 73 per cent as high as the average prices from 
 1924-25 to 1927-28. These low prices may be directly attributed to 
 the large crop in this country. The combined crop of winter oranges 
 
22 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 in California and Florida amounted to approximately 29,400,000 
 boxes, as against an average of 19,500,000 boxes during the previous 
 four years. 
 
 Fortunately, there has been a substantial increase in the demand 
 for winter oranges during recent years. As a result, a given supply 
 will now sell for about 45 per cent more than the same quantity would 
 have brought in 1923-24. 
 
 Export markets are not likely to offer a large additional outlet for 
 winter oranges. The principal foreign orange-producing countries, 
 Spain, Italy, and Palestine, ship their fruit at the time our Navels are 
 on the market. The tendency is toward increasing production in those 
 countries. 
 
 Valencias. — The outlook for Valencia oranges continues favorable. 
 The relatively low prices received in 1929 are not likely to prevail on 
 the average during the next few years. The 1929 crop was the largest 
 ever produced in the state and the average size of the fruit was the 
 smallest in the history of the industry. Crops that will average as 
 large as that of 1929 cannot normally be expected for several years, 
 and by that time the demand for Valencia oranges will probably be 
 materially greater than it is now. 
 
 Fortunately the prospective increase in the production of oranges 
 and grapefruit in the other states of the union will probably not affect 
 the prices of our Valencias except during April and May. Our 
 Valencias are practically the only oranges in the markets of this 
 country during most of their shipping season. 
 
 During recent years there has been a marked upward trend in both 
 shipments and prices of Valencias. People are not only eating more 
 oranges during the summer months but they are also paying more for 
 them as well. In 1921 the trend of shipments stood at 7,000,000 boxes, 
 in 1929 at 12,000,000 boxes. The actual shipments in 1929 were about 
 30 per cent above the estimated trend. Indications are that the upward 
 trend in shipments will continue. In 1929 there were 112,250 acres 
 of Valencias in the state, of which 20,890 acres, or 19 per cent, were 
 not yet in bearing and an even larger proportion was not in full bear- 
 ing. As the trees come into full bearing production will be materially 
 increased. 
 
 During the past decade the demand has increased even faster than 
 shipments. The demand is likely to continue to increase. While there 
 are some indications that the rate of increase in the demand during 
 the coming years may not be as rapid as in the past, there is no 
 evidence that the upward trend has been stopped. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 23 
 
 In addition to a prospective increase in consumption in this 
 countr^^ export markets offer a promising outlet for our Valencias. 
 Great Britain, for example, is a large consumer of oranges. The great 
 bulk of the oranges in that country, however, have been consumed 
 during the winter and spring months. During the past three years 
 Great Britain has imported an average of 12,750,000 boxes of oranges, 
 77 per cent of which were received during the six months of December 
 to June. It seems reasonable, therefore, to believe that the consump- 
 tion of oranges in Europe during our Valencia season could be greatly 
 increased. To do so, however, would probably require considerable 
 expense. But in vicAv of the prospective increase in our production, 
 the costly work of developing new markets abroad would probably be 
 repaid many times. 
 
 Although most of the European supplies of oranges are received 
 during the winter and spring months, it should not be assumed that 
 California Valencias will entirely escape competition from other 
 oranges in those markets. The shipi^ing season in the Union of South 
 Africa, which is rapidly becoming an important orange-producing 
 country, practically coincides with that of our Valencias. In 1927 
 there were over three million orange trees in the Union of South 
 Africa, of which only one-fourth were in commercial bearing. Most 
 of the exports from the Union of South Africa go to Great Britain. 
 South American countries, particularly Brazil and Argentina, may 
 also become more important sources of supplies of summer oranges in 
 European markets. 
 
 GRAPEFRUIT 
 
 A marked increase in the shipments of grapefruit in the winter and 
 spring months is in prospect during the next few years. On the other 
 hand, it is not likely that the shipments of summer grapefruit will 
 rise above the present level. 
 
 The bulk of the grapefruit from Florida, Texas, Arizona, Imperial 
 Valley and central California is shipped during the eight months of 
 October to May. 
 
 Most of the increase in the bearing acreage of grapefruit in Cali- 
 fornia during recent years has occurred in the Imperial Valley. In 
 1925 there were only 500 acres in bearing in Imperial County ; in 1929 
 there were 4680 acres. During the next few years there is likely to 
 be a further substantial increase, since about 3600 acres have not yet 
 come into bearing. 
 
24 California Agricultural Extension Service [Cmc 39 
 
 The bearing acreage in Arizona increased from 560 acres in 1924 
 to 1600 acres in 1928. The non-bearing acreage in 1928 amounted to 
 2200 acres. It appears, therefore, that the bearing acreage in that 
 state may be more than doubled within the next few years. Further- 
 more, large additional plantings are in prospect. 
 
 During the next few years the increase in bearing acreage in Texas 
 is likely to be even larger than in Arizona or the Imperial Valley. 
 In 1929 there were 53,200 acres of grapefruit in Texas, of which 
 only 7000 acres were five years of age and older. Carlot shipments 
 of grapefruit from Texas increased from only 48 cars in 1922-1923 
 to 1547 cars in 1928-1929. In view of the probable increase in bearing 
 acreage it is likely that the upward trend in shipments will continue 
 during the next few years. 
 
 As contrasted with the large expansion that is in prospect in the 
 Imperial Valley, Arizona, and Texas, only a small increase in bearing 
 acreage is expected in Florida. Of the total acreage of grapefruit in 
 that state in 1928, 93 per cent was in bearing. A considerable pro- 
 portion of the present bearing acreage, however, has not reached the 
 age of full bearing. In 1925 the bearing acreage was only 55 per cent 
 as large as in 1928. 
 
 The 1928-29 crop was the first large grapefruit crop that Florida 
 has produced since 1924-25. Carlot shipments for Florida last year 
 amounted to 21,830 cars as against an average of 15,220 cars during 
 the previous three years. In 1924-25 shipments amounted to 20,090 
 cars. The same conditions which caused the low yields of oranges in 
 Florida (see page 21) were also responsible for the low yields of 
 grapefruit. 
 
 Chiefly as the result of the short crops of both grapefruit and 
 oranges in Florida,, prices of winter grapefruit during the three years 
 of 1925-26 to 1927-28 were relatively high, averaging about 50 per 
 cent above that of the previous three years. 
 
 In 1928-29 prices of winter grapefruit were about 30 per cent 
 below the average of the previous three years. They were higher, 
 however, than in either 1923-24 or 1924-25, although total carlot ship- 
 ments of winter grapefruit were about 18 per cent larger than in those 
 two years. This is evidence that there has been a substantial increase 
 in the demand for winter grapefruit. A further increase in demand 
 can reasonably be expected both in this country and in Great Britain. 
 Unless the future increase in demand is even greater than that which 
 has occurred, however, the very favorable price level which prevailed 
 between 1925-26 and 1927-28 is not likely to be maintained. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 25 
 
 There have been practically no plantings of grapefruit in sections 
 which ship during the summer months. Consequently, the supplies of 
 fresh summer grapefruit are not likely to increase. If a very large 
 expansion in the canning of grapefruit occurs, however, it will tend 
 to extend the marketing of winter grapefruit into the summer months. 
 During the past season 957,000 cases of grapefruit were canned in 
 Florida as against 455,100 cases in 1927. 
 
 LEMONS 
 
 The lemon industry is gradually obtaining a more favorable basis 
 than that which prevailed on the average during recent years. 
 
 The available information indicates that lemon production in this 
 state is now at about the peak. While there may be a further increase 
 in the average yield per acre due to the increased age of the trees, it 
 is not likely to be large, and it will probably be largely offset by a 
 decrease in bearing acreage. Since 1925 the trend of bearing acreage 
 has been downward, falling from 44,270 acres in 1925 to 43,340 acres 
 in 1929. This dow^nward trend is likely to continue during the next 
 few years at least, since the present non-bearing acreage amounts to 
 less than 2950 acres, which is not sufficient for normal replacements. 
 It should not be expected, however, that this downward trend will be 
 rapid. Decreases in the acreage of tree fruits take place slowly. 
 
 Although the quality of the 1928-29 crop of lemons was relatively 
 poor, other conditions were particularly favorable, and as a result the 
 largest shipments on record were sold at relatively high average prices 
 for the sea.son. In the eastern markets unusually high temperatures 
 l^revailed at times during the summer months and fortunately the 
 heat waves came when there were large quantities of fruit available 
 there. Imports of lemons were very small amounting to less than 
 500,000 boxes as against an average of 1,000,000 boxes during the 
 previous five years. The Italian winter crop was short but the sum- 
 mer crop was as large as in 1928. Exports of lemons from Italy to the 
 United States during the period May to August, however, amounted 
 to only 244,000 boxes in 1929 as against 505,000 boxes in 1928. The 
 European demand for summer lemons was strong and Italian exporters 
 were evidently hesitant about consigning a heavy volume to this 
 country in view of the large California crop. 
 
 With imports of lemons around 1,000,000 boxes — the average of 
 the five years, 1924-1928 — our present production is frequently in 
 excess of demand. In recent years when our crop has been average or 
 
26 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 above we have produced more lemons than could be sold at prices 
 which would return a satisfactory profit to growers. Consequently, 
 it has been necessary in years of large production to ship only a part 
 of the crop and send the remainder to by-product plants on a salvage 
 basis. During the winter and spring months of 1929 the volume of 
 California lemons available for shipment was much larger than the 
 market would take. Consequently, the storage capacity of most of the 
 packing houses was taxed to the limit and it was necessary to send a 
 relatively large volimie of lemons to the by-product plants. 
 
 There has been some increase in the demand for lemons in this 
 country, which has been manifested by an increase in the per-capita 
 consumption of lemons. From 1908 to 1917 the per-capita consump- 
 tion averaged around 13.4 lemons annually; during recent years it has 
 averaged around 16 lemons annually, an increase of 19 per cent. Past 
 experience indicates that it is very difficult to increase the demand 
 for lemons. In view of the difficulties involved, however, real progress 
 has been made, and much of this progress can be attributed to the 
 activities of the California Fruit Growers Exchange. With continued 
 effort some further increase in demand can probably be effected, 
 although such progress will be slow, judging from the experience of 
 the past twenty years. 
 
 ALMONDS 
 
 The available facts indicate that the outlook for almonds is reason- 
 ably favorable. While any widespread plantings do not appear to be 
 justified, a conservative expansion in the areas best adapted to this 
 crop may be desirable. 
 
 The bearing acreage of almonds in California, which is the only 
 state in the union in which this crop is grown commercially, is now 
 at about the peak. The new acreage coming into bearing during the 
 next few years will probably be no larger than is necessory to replace 
 the acreage that will normally go out of bearing. Consequently, it is 
 expected that the bearing acreage will remain practically stationary. 
 This expected stationary situation is a distinct contrast to the rapid 
 increase in bearing acreage during the past decade. In 1921 the bear- 
 ing acreage amounted to 41,200 acres, in 1929 to 91,700 acres, an 
 increase of 123 per cent. 
 
 Production of almonds in California has also increased rapidly, 
 rising from an average of 7250 tons in 1921-1922 to an average of 
 12,800 tons in 1927-1928. As a result of the severe freeze the 1929 
 crop was the smallest since 1917, amounting to only 4600 tons. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 27 
 
 Despite the pronounced upward trend in the production of almonds 
 in California, the nation now produces only about one-third of the 
 almonds consumed in this country. The remainder is imported mainly 
 from Italy, Spain, and France. 
 
 From 1921 to 1926 there was a pronounced downward trend in 
 imports. During five consecutive years imports were smaller than in the 
 preceding year. The total decrease between 1921-1922 and 1926-1927 
 amounted to 13,800 tons, in equivalent of unshelled almonds, or 3e5 
 per cent. During that same period the increase in the production of 
 almonds in this state amounted to only 6750 tons. Consequently, 
 there was a substantial decrease in the total supply of almonds avail- 
 able for consumption in this country. The per-capita supply in equiv- 
 alent of unshelled almonds amounted to 0.85 pounds in 1921-1922 as 
 against only 0.67 pounds in 1926-1927, a decrease of 21 per cent. 
 
 Chiefly as a result of the decline in the per-capita supply of 
 almonds in the United States there has been an upward trend in prices 
 paid to growers, rising from 15.0 cents a pound in 1921 to 17.5 cents a 
 pound in 1928. Prices' in 1929 were, of course, high because of the 
 very short crop in this state. 
 
 During the next few years it is not likely that there will be a 
 further pronounced decline in the per-capita supply of almonds in this 
 country, nor is there likely to be a further material upward trend in 
 prices. The continuous decline in imports from 1921 to 1926 has 
 already been checked. During the fiscal year of 1927-28 imports were 
 15 per cent larger than in 1926-27, while in 1928-29 they were 18 
 per cent larger. The earlier decline in imports was largely the result 
 of an increase in the tariff, recovery of European markets, and an 
 increased use of California shelled almonds in the United States. It is 
 probable that the most pronounced effect of the first two of these 
 factors has occurred already. The rise in almond prices in this coun- 
 try has made it easier for importers to pay the additional tariff duty. 
 European markets have made a considerable recovery and it is not 
 likely that they will increase their purchases of almonds as much 
 during the next few years as they did between 1921 and 1926. 
 
 The world production of almonds is likely to average as high dur- 
 ing the next few years as in recent years. Production in this state is 
 expected to remain at about the present level and there is no available 
 evidence that there will be any pronounced downward trend in pro- 
 duction in the principal foreign almond-producing countries. Most 
 of these foreign countries produce a much larger volume of almonds 
 
28 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 than they consume ; consequently, the surplus must be sold in other 
 countries. The United States has been an important market for a 
 portion of that surplus for many years. 
 
 Another factor that growers should consider when deciding whether 
 to plant almonds is the prospective increase in competition from wal- 
 nuts and pecans. The production of both walnuts and pecans is likely 
 to be materially larger during the next few years than they have been 
 in recent years. It appears, therefore, that almonds may be subjected 
 to keener competition from these nuts in the consuming markets dur- 
 ing the coming years than they have experienced in the past. 
 
 WALNUTS 
 
 The outlook for additional plantings of walnuts is unfavorable. 
 The production already in prospect will probably be more than suffi- 
 cient to supply the domestic requirements for unshelled walnuts at the 
 present level of prices, unless there is an extraordinary increase in the 
 demand for them. If such an increase in demand does not occur, the 
 future trend of prices to growers may be expected to be downward. 
 
 The total acreage of w^alnuts in California, which produces about 
 97 per cent of the commercial crop of the nation, amounts to approxi- 
 mately 127,480 acres. Of that amount 87,560 acres, or 69 per cent, 
 are classified as bearing and 39,920 acres, or 31 per cent, as non- 
 bearing. According to the forecasts of the California Cooperative 
 Crop Reporting Service there will be 107,500 acres in bearing by 1932, 
 about 23 per cent greater than the present bearing acreage and about 
 50 per cent greater than the bearing acreage in 1926. 
 
 The production of walnuts in this state amounted to an average 
 of 39,000 tons during the past three years, 1927-1929, as against an 
 average of 22,500 tons during the three years of 1920-1922, an increase 
 of 16,500 tons, or 69 per cent. A part of this increase has been offset 
 by a decline in imports of unshelled walnuts which compete most 
 severely with our product. The average imports of unshelled walnuts 
 during the three years of 1920-21 to 1922-23 amounted to 12,800 tons 
 as against an average of 6190 tons during the two years of 1927-28 
 and 1928-29. On the other hand, imports of shelled walnuts have 
 been about as large during the past two years as they were in 1921-22. 
 They have, however, been considerably smaller than they were during 
 the three years from 1924-25 to 1926-27. During those three years 
 imports of both shelled and unshelled walnuts were relatively large. 
 
1930J The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 29 
 
 As a result of the prospective increase in domestic production and 
 the probability of lower prices in this country, imports of both shelled 
 and unshelled walnuts may average lower during the next few years 
 than in 1927-28 and 1928-29. The potential competition from foreign 
 countries, however, may be even greater during the coming years than 
 it has been in recent years. Most of the United States imports of 
 walnuts come from France, Italy, and China. According to the avail- 
 able information, some increase in walnut production is in prospect in 
 both France and Italy. 
 
 Since the imports of unshelled walnuts are now relatively small, 
 averaging only 6190 tons during the past two years, it is evident that 
 only a further small increase in the production in this state is required 
 to supply our domestic requirements at the present level of prices. In 
 order to dispose of the large increase in production that is in prospect 
 it will probably be necessary to reduce the prices on the unshelled 
 nuts and to shell a larger proportion of the corp. 
 
 The large prospective increase in the production of improved 
 pecans, most of which are marketed in the shell, may add considerably 
 to the competition that California walnuts meet in the consuming 
 markets. A recent survey indicates, that of an estimated total of 
 8,000,000 trees of improved varieties, 65 per cent were planted during 
 the past 10 years and 40 per cent during the past five years. 
 
 BEEF CATTLE 
 
 The high phase of the beef -cattle price cycle which has prevailed 
 since the latter part of 1927 is expected to continue during 1930. 
 However, average prices for all grades for the entire year may be 
 somewhat lower than those of 1929. 
 
 The number of all cattle on farms apparently reached the low point 
 of the production cycle in 1928 and since then the tendency of cattle 
 numbers has been slightly upward. The estimated number of cattle 
 on farms January 1, 1930, was 57,967,000. This was 1,500,000 head, 
 or 2.7 per cent, more than on January 1, 1929, and 2,291,000 more 
 than in 1928. Most of the increase was in cattle kept for milk, includ- 
 ing cows, heifers, and calves. Increases in cattle kept chiefly for beef 
 were relatively small. 
 
 Total inspected slaughter of cattle during 1929 was 8,324,000 head, 
 or 2 per cent smaller than in 1928, and slaughter of calves 4,489,000 
 head, or about 4 per cent smaller. Compared with the record slaughter 
 
30 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ 39 
 
 in 1926 slaughter of cattle and calves in 1929 showed a decrease of 
 2,513,000 head, or about 16 per cent. The 1929 decrease in slaughter 
 was in cows, heifers, and calves; steer slaughter was larger than in 
 1928. Apparently the movement to increase cattle numbers is follow- 
 ing the line of increasing breeding stock and holding back calves. 
 
 The gradual increase in demand for beef which has been under way 
 since 1921 continued during a greater part of 1929. This was evi- 
 denced by the fact that for the year per-capita consumption decreased 
 only 1.3 per cent, whereas retail prices increased 7 per cent over 1928. 
 This is a greater increase in price than would ordinarih^ accompany 
 such a slight decrease in supplies. During the last two months of 1929 
 demand fell off somewhat. This recession in demand is likely to con- 
 tinue during the first half of the year at least. Improvement in 
 demand during the remainder of the year will be largely governed 
 by the extent to which industrial activity increases and by the prices 
 of other meats. 
 
 The upward trend in cattle numbers promises to proceed at only 
 a moderate rate during the next year or two and may not be reflected 
 in materially increased slaughter until the latter part of 1931. It 
 seems altogether likely, however, that the present relatively high level 
 of cattle prices may within a period of several years bring about 
 undue expansion and subsequent lower prices. It is not to be expected, 
 however, that in either phase of this cycle movements will be as 
 extreme as in the last one when the situation was aggravated by the 
 AVorld War and a major industrial boom and depression. 
 
 An unfavorable factor in the beef situation is the possibility that a 
 relatively large number of dairy cows may be sold for slaughter within 
 the next two years. Prices of dairy cows have already reached the 
 peak and are declining. As this decline continues the margin between 
 the prices of dairy and beef cattle will be lessened, which will tend to 
 encourage the sale of dairy cows for slaughter. Furthermore, the 
 lower prices of dairy products will tend to discourage the practice of 
 keeping dairy cows to an older age. 
 
 If cattle growers continue their present policy of expansion 
 through increasing the numbers of breeding stock and selling at 
 younger ages, they will be in a position to make fairly quick adjust- 
 ments in production by close culling of old cows whenever the price 
 situation makes reduction desirable. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 31 
 
 DAIRY 
 
 While the underlying situation is not as bad as would appear from 
 the current butter prices, California dairymen face a period of keener 
 competition than that which has been experienced in recent years. 
 
 With production in 1929 exceeding that of 1928 and demand 
 reduced toward the close of the year, a large surplus of butter accu- 
 mulated, and price fell to the lowest point in several years. On Sep- 
 tember 1, 1929, storage stocks were the largest on record, amounting 
 to 169,000,000 pounds. At the close of the year stocks had been 
 reduced to 82,000,000 pounds, but were still 38,000,000 pounds heavier 
 than a year earlier. Stocks of cheese and concentrated milk were also 
 unusually heavy during 1929. 
 
 The precipitous decline in wholesale butter prices in eastern 
 markets since October has only recently been followed by correspond- 
 ing reductions in retail prices. With reduced retail prices consump- 
 tion will tend to increase and thus enable the surplus stock to move 
 into consumption, which should relieve the present demoralized situa- 
 tion in the wholesale markets. AVhile material improvement in the 
 buying power of consumers is not expected before the second half of 
 1930 the butter and cheese markets have probably felt the worst of 
 the depression. Demand for fluid milk and market cream will prob- 
 ably show some decline in the first half of 1930 as compared to the 
 first half of 1929. Thereafter the demand for all dairy products may 
 continue the upward trend which has until recently prevailed. 
 
 High prices for dairy products in recent years encouraged dairy- 
 men principally in the eastern states, to raise more heifers than were 
 needed for replacement and to provide for the normal increase in 
 demand. In addition they have retained more than the usual number 
 of old cows in the herds. As a result the total number of dairy cows 
 on farms January 1, 1930, was nearly 3 per cent greater than a year 
 earlier, while the number of heifers was nearly 6 per cent greater. 
 Most of the increase in numbers of cows occurred in the eastern states. 
 In California there was no increase in numbers, while in the western 
 states as a whole the increase was less than 1 per cent. There was, 
 however, an increase of 10 per cent in the number of heifers in this 
 state. Most of this increase is needed to maintain the present number 
 of dairy cows, since in the market-milk areas relatively heavy replace- 
 ments are necessarv. 
 
32 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 The tendency to keep more cows throughout the United States does 
 not yet appear to have been checked. December stockyard receipts of 
 cattle from dairy states still showed abnormally small numbers. Unless 
 dairy herds are closely culled and more of the less desirable heifers 
 sent to slaughter there will be a further increase in the number of 
 milk cows during 1930 and 1931. 
 
 Prices of dairy cows have already reached the peak and have 
 started downward. With relatively lower prices of all dairy products 
 than those which have prevailed in recent years, it may be expected 
 that the downward trend in prices of dairy cattle will continue. This 
 is a particularly favorable time for dairymen to dispose of cull cows. 
 
 HOGS 
 
 Hog prices in 1930 are expected to average at least as high as in 
 1929 and possibly higher. A reduction in slaughter supplies is indi- 
 cated, but this probably will be partially offset by a decrease in 
 foreign and domestic demand for hog products. 
 
 The estimated number of hogs on farms on January 1, 1930, was 
 52,600,000 head, or 7.5 per cent less than the revised estimate of 
 56,880,000 head on January 1, 1929. The decrease in the Corn Belt 
 states amounted to 2,521,000 head, or 6 per cent. 
 
 The supply of hogs going to commercial slaughter for the market- 
 ing year ending with September, 1930, is expected to be somewhat 
 smaller than that for the previous marketing year. The pig surveys 
 of the department showed a decrease of about 6 per cent in the 1929 
 spring pig crop of the Corn Belt and an increase of about 4 per cent 
 in the 1929 fall pig crop, or a total crop for the year about 3 per cent 
 smaller than that of 1928. 
 
 Domestic demand for pork products was materially stronger in 
 1929 than in 1928. A 4 per cent increase in wholesale prices was 
 accompanied by a reduction of only 1 per cent in per-capita consump- 
 tion. This is a smaller decrease in consumption than would ordinarily 
 accompany such a large increase in price. Domestic demand for lard 
 declined, however, per-capita consumption being less in spite of lower 
 prices. 
 
 Outstanding points in the European pork situation are: (1) a 
 tendency toward generally increased hog numbers, as indicated by 
 some increases in breeding sows and young pigs, and some upward 
 movement in current marketings; (2) a feed supply considerably 
 larger than that of last year, with breeding being encouraged bj^ low 
 
1930] The 1980 Agricultural Outlook for California 83 
 
 feed prices; (8) a downward tendency in prices of hogs, cured pork, 
 and lard, and (4) no indication of any significant increase in buying 
 power in the leading markets for American pork products during 1980. 
 
 POULTRY 
 
 The level of egg prices in 1930 is likely to be lower than in 1929. 
 The estimated number of chickens on farms is about 5 per cent above 
 that of a year ago. This, together with the higher proportion of 
 pullets and young hens in the laying flocks, indicates a volume of egg 
 production in 1980 greater than in 1929. The number of pullets 
 raised in 1929 was about 10 per cent larger than in the jjrevious year. 
 
 Receipts of eggs at the four principal markets during 1929 
 amounted to 14,940,000 cases, 8 per cent less than in 1928. In every 
 month of the year except December receipts were smaller than for the 
 corresponding month of the previous year, but in December they were 
 slightly larger. 
 
 The annual average price of eggs at San Francisco in 1929 was the 
 highest since 1925 and about 10 per cent higher than in 1928. The 
 high prices in 1925 greatly stimulated the expansion of egg produc- 
 tion, and as a result of that expansion prices declined steadily from 
 1925 to 1927. The unprofitable prices in 1927 resulted in a sub- 
 stantial reduction in the number of birds in laying flocks in 1928. 
 With a reduction of about 10 per cent in the number of pullets raised 
 in 1928 as compar.ed wdth 1927 the number of birds in laying flocks 
 in 1929 was even smaller than in 1928. The decline in egg production 
 since 1927 has been accompanied by advancing prices. The industry 
 is now in a position similar to that of 1925. 
 
 SHEEP 
 
 California sheepmen are not likely to have as favorable conditions 
 on the average for marketing lambs in 1980 as those which prevailed 
 in 1929. Indications are that the competition from fed lambs will be 
 more severe and that the demand in the consuming market will be 
 below that of 1929. 
 
 On January 1, 1980, there were over 5,000,000 head of lambs on 
 feed for market, the largest number in eight years and about 700,000 
 head larger than on January 1, 1929. The increase in lambs on feed 
 this year was largely in Colorado and western Nebraska. Because of 
 unfavorable weather conditions in these states during October and 
 November the lambs made only small gains and the movement of 
 them to market may be delayed somewhat longer than usual. 
 
34 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 The upward trend in consumer demand for lamb that has been 
 under way during the past few years is not expected to continue 
 during 1930. Indications are that the 1930 level will be below that 
 of 1929, especially during the first part of the year. A slackening in 
 the demand for lamb began to develop during the latter half of 1929 
 and was particularly noticeable near the end of the year. 
 
 In recent years large numbers of ewe lambs have been kept each 
 year in order to expand flocks, and this has retarded the increase in 
 supplies sent to market. The tendency to build up flocks has been 
 greatly checked, however, and it may be expected that the normal 
 yearly increase will now go to increase the supplies of sheep and lamb 
 for slaughter. Reduction in the breeding flocks or the failure to keep 
 back sufficient ewe lambs to maintain the present breeding flocks will, 
 of course, add further to the already large prospective supplies for 
 slaughter. 
 
 Although prices of lamb and wool are expected to be lower than 
 the average of recent years, the situation does not appear to be such 
 as to require any drastic liquidation on the part of experienced sheep- 
 men who are in a favorable position with respect to range and pasture. 
 In the past, periods of low prices such as those now prevailing for 
 wool, and as seems probable for lamb, have been followed by higher 
 prices a few years later. No such sharp price declines as took place 
 in 1920 and 1921 are expected unless, of course, unusually large 
 numbers are forced on the market within a relatively short time. 
 
 Wool prices experienced a material decline during 1929. Although 
 prospective world supply and demand conditions do not indicate an 
 immediate improvement in the wool situation, the expected revival of 
 business conditions after the middle of 1930 gives encouragement for 
 anticipating an increased demand for wool in 1931. 
 
 The 1930 world wool clip will probably not be much different from 
 the large clips of 1928 and 1929. Production has been increasing 
 rapidly in recent years, the total in the important countries exclusive 
 of Russia and China rising from 2,566,000,000 pounds in 1923, to 
 3,213,000,000 pounds in 1928. Most of this increase came in countries 
 of the southern hemisphere and in the United States. In view of 
 present low wool prices, material further expansion is not to be 
 expected and some decrease is likely by 1931. It should also be noted 
 that several of the large wool-producing countries of the southern 
 hemisphere are subject to more severe droughts than have occurred 
 in recent years. A recurrence of one of these periods could reduce 
 their sheep numbers materially in a short time. 
 
1930] The 1980 Agricultural Outlook for California 35 
 
 ASPARAGUS 
 
 Canning Asparagus. — The oiitloolv for canning asparagus is favor- 
 able provided growers do not plant too large an acreage. Plantings 
 in the next two years no larger than in 1929 will apparently take 
 care of the necessary replacements and in addition provide for a 
 further substantial increase in demand. 
 
 Practically all of the canning asparagus and about 45 per cent of 
 the table asparagus produced in the United States are grown in Cali- 
 fornia. Of the total bearing acreage of 55,640 acres in this state in 
 1929 approximately 93 per cent was in the Delta District. This 
 district contributes all of the canning asparagus and about 90 per cent 
 of the carlot shipments of table asparagus from California. The other 
 areas in the state producing table asparagus are in Imperial, Fresno, 
 Los Angeles, Riverside, and Orange counties. 
 
 During the past eight years there has been a pronounced upward 
 trend in production in the Delta, rising from 1,300,000 cannery boxes 
 in 1921 to 3,870,000 boxes in 1929. The actual production last year 
 was about 6 per cent below the estimated trend because of the reduced 
 yield due to unusually cool weather during the cutting season. The 
 marked upward trend in production is not expected to continue 
 during the immediate future. With normal yields production during 
 the next two years will probably average only about 5 per cent above 
 the average of the past two years. About 75 per cent of the asparagus 
 produced in the Delta is utilized for canning and about 25 per cent 
 for fresh consumption. 
 
 The canned pack of asparagus, which remained practically station- 
 ary at around 867,000 cases from 1916 to 1921, has increased rapidly 
 during the past eight years. In 1929 it amounted to 2,673,000 cases, 
 an increase of 176 per cent over the 1916-1921 average. Despite this 
 enormous increase the canners' opening prices were 14 per cent higher 
 in 1929 than in 1921. 
 
 The situation during that period, however, Avas not without its 
 difficulties. The pack of 1924, which was 18 per cent larger than in 
 any previous year, did not move readily into consumption at the high 
 prices asked at the beginning of the season, and the carryover into 
 the 1925 season amounted to about 170,000 cases. As a result the 
 opening price, which was $3.85 a dozen cans in 1924, was reduced to 
 $3.10 a dozen in 1925. In 1926, with a pack 28 per cent larger than 
 in 1925, a further reduction of 10 cents a dozen was made. The lower 
 
36 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 prices together with the extensive advertising campaign which was 
 started in that year, greatly stimnlated consumption. About 25 per 
 cent more canned asparagus was sold in 1926 than in 1925. And in 
 1927 and 1928, despite small advances in opening prices, sales con- 
 tinued to increase, although at a somewhat slower rate. 
 
 A further increase in the demand for canned asparagus can reason- 
 ably be expected. In order to supply that increase at the present 
 level of prices, a larger bearing acreage than we now have will be 
 necessary. The chief danger in the situation is that growers may 
 plant a much larger acreage than is warranted, just as they did in 
 1923 and 1924. 
 
 Table Asparagus. — Only in particularly favorable localities are 
 additional plantings of asparagus for fresh consumption alone likely 
 to be justified. As contrasted with canning asparagus, California 
 table asparagus meets with considerable competition from that grown 
 in other states, particularly in Georgia and South Carolina. Indi- 
 cations are that the production in those states will average materially 
 higher during the next few years. The acreage in South Carolina 
 was 32 per cent larger in 1928 than in 1926, while in Georgia it was 
 29 per cent larger. These increases, however, have not yet resulted 
 in corresponding increases in production, since asparagus does not 
 come into full bearing for several years after it is planted. On the 
 other hand, it is not expected that the upward trend in shipments 
 from this state will continue during the next two or three years ; 
 neither is there likely to be any downward trend. 
 
 Until about the middle of April the larger proportion of California 
 shipments of table asparagus go to eastern markets, but thereafter 
 most of them go to markets within the state. This is largely the result 
 of the increase in the supplies in the eastern markets from other states. 
 During the latter part of March and in April receipts from South 
 Carolina and Georgia arrive in the eastern markets, while in April, 
 May, and June receipts from the late-shipping states arrive there. It 
 is only during February and the first part of March that California 
 asparagus escapes competition in the eastern markets from that grown 
 elsewhere. 
 
 During the three years 1921-1923 the annual average prices of 
 table asparagus were high, averaging $5.90 a crate at New York and 
 $3.75 a crate at San Francisco. During the past three years, however, 
 prices have been much lower, averaging only $4.35 a crate at New 
 York and only $2.70 a crate at San Francisco. That decline was 
 largely the result of the great increase in carlot shipments, not only 
 
1930] The 19')0 Agricultural Outlook for California 37 
 
 from this state, but also from South Carolina and Georgia. The 
 combined shipments from these three states have increased from an 
 average of 517 cars a year in 1921-1923 to an average of 1974 cars a 
 year in 1927-1928. 
 
 BEANS 
 
 The acreage planted to beans in 1929, both in the United States 
 as a whole and in California, will apparently produce under average 
 growing conditions about all of the beans that can be sold at satis- 
 factory prices. Yields per acre in the United States in 1929 were 
 about 6 per cent below the average of the past four years. In Cali- 
 fornia and Michigan yields were particularly low, but in Colorado 
 and Idaho they were much above average. 
 
 The average United States production of all beans during the five 
 years 1924-1928 was 10,396,000 bags. Supplemented by net imports, 
 the average annual supply for domestic consumption during this five- 
 year period was about 10,800,0000 bags. Consumption of beans has 
 increased at the rate of about 300,000 bags annually. During the 
 period July 1, 1928, to July 30, 1929, a total of about 11,130,000 bags 
 moved into consumptive channels. Imports during this period were 
 below average, owing to the small crop of 1928 in other countries. 
 In 1929, however, the bean crop was large in Rumania, Japan, and 
 other important producing countries. Unusually heavj^ imports of 
 567,000 bags during the first four months — September to December — 
 of the 1929-30 marketing season, were encouraged by the high United 
 States price level of beans at that time, by depleted stocks, and low 
 production of Small White beans in this country. These imports have 
 had a depressing influence on prices, especially those of Small White 
 beans and other white beans. 
 
 The harvested acreage in Michigan and New York composed 
 largely of Small White beans, was 28 per cent greater in 1929 than 
 in 1928. Because of low average yields, however, the production of 
 Small White beans was only 3,300,000 bags, which is 480,000 bags 
 below the average for the preceding five years. An average yield on 
 an acreage equal to that harvested in 1929 would result in a total 
 production of over 4,200,000 bags, which appears to be somewhat 
 larger than can be sold at satisfactory prices. 
 
 The combined acreage of Limas and Baby Limas in California 
 amounted to 130,000 acres in 1929, as compared with 113,000 acres 
 for 1928. The yield, however, was only 10.1 bags per acre, which is 
 15 per cent below the average 1925-1928 yield of 11.9 bags. The total 
 
38 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 production, therefore, was only 25,000 bags above that of 1928. Unless 
 yields per acre are again unusually low in 1930 or total Lima-bean 
 acreage is reduced, it is likely that prices will be lower. With an 
 acreage equal to last year and with average yields, the crop may be 
 expected to reach 1,550,000 bags, which is about 15 per cent below^ the 
 record crop of 1926. 
 
 The total production of Pink beans produced in 1929 is reported 
 to be 58,000 bags less than the 1928 crop of 588,000 bags. Prices, 
 however, were slightly lower, because of the unusual large crop of 
 Pintos, a variety which competes with Pinks. The Pinto crop was 
 736,000 bags larger in 1929 than in 1928, the prices were $1.10 per 
 hundred pounds lower. The carryover of Pintos into the 1930 season 
 will probably be large. On the other hand, there is little probability 
 that the yield per acre in Colorado will be as high in 1930 as it was 
 in 1929. 
 
 The production of California Blackeyes in 1929 is reported to be 
 490,000 bags as against 428,000 bags in 1928. Prices have averaged 
 lower than last year, but are still considerably above the average of 
 recent years. 
 
 Prices of Bayos in 1929 were the highest since 1925 and about 
 15 per cent higher than in 1928. Production of Bayos in 1929 
 amounted to only 12,000 bags, the smallest crop on record. 
 
 COTTON 
 
 Cotton prices are likely to be lower in 1930 than in 1929 unless the 
 acreage in the United States is materially reduced or the yields per 
 acre are below average. 
 
 The acreage and production of cotton in the United States has 
 increased each year since 1927. The acreage harvested in 1929 
 amounted to 46 million acres, being exceeded only by that harvested 
 in 1925 and 1926. Yields per acre in 1929, however, were much 
 below the 1926 yields and somewhat below the 10-year average yields. 
 Drought in Texas and Oklahoma and weevils and storms in North 
 Carolina resulted in unusually low yields in those three states, which 
 in 1929 contained over one-half of the total cotton acreage. 
 
 Despite increasing production of cotton in this country during the 
 past three years, world consumption of American cotton has exceeded 
 production. Consequently, the excessive carryover of 7.8 million bales 
 of American cotton at the end of the 1926 marketing season has been 
 gradually reduced. The carryover into the 1929 season amounted to 
 only 4.9 million bales. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 39 
 
 The estimated production of cotton in the United States in 1929 — 
 14.9 million bales — is only 1.5 per cent below the world consumption 
 of 15.1 million bales of American cotton during the 1928-29 season. 
 Thus far in the 1929-30 season, world consumption of American 
 cotton has been below that of the corresponding' period of last year. 
 Until the first of November all of this decrease oecurred in European 
 countries, which is to be attributed primarily to less favorable business 
 conditions in those countries in 1929 than in 1928. Exports of 
 American cotton during the last five months of 1929 were about 
 600,000 bales less than in the corresponding five months of the 
 previous season. On the other hand, the very good domestic demand 
 conditions which existed in 1928-29 continued into the first part of 
 the present season, and up to the first of November domestic con- 
 sumption was larger than in 1928. In November and December, 
 1929, however, domestic mill consumption declined considerably and 
 sales of cotton cloth were about 12 per cent less than for the some two 
 months of 1928. 
 
 LETTUCE 
 
 With the constant tendency toward expansion of lettuce acreage, 
 particularly in California and Arizona, the industry is faced with a 
 real problem in the orderly distribution of the crop, in the prevention 
 of serious overlapping of shipping periods in competing districts, and 
 in the production of high-quality lettuce. 
 
 A moderately increased total commercial production of lettuce in 
 the United States in 1929 over that in 1928 was marketed at higher 
 average prices. The pronounced increase in the demand for lettuce, 
 which has characterized the past several years, continued in 1929, and 
 there is as yet no evidence that the peak of demand has been reached. 
 
 Growers should not, however, assume that markets can be expanded 
 sufficiently to absorbe a very large immediate increase in production 
 at the i^resent level of prices. Production in New York in 1929 was 
 73 per cent larger than in 1928 and as a result prices dropped 58 per 
 cent. Similar conditions were experienced in the Imperial Valley of 
 California in 1926-27 and in the California spring lettuce area in 
 1928. 
 
 The influence of quality upon the price of lettuce also deserves 
 emphasis. The general experience has been that poor-quality lettuce 
 will ruin a market faster than anything else. Although it takes a little 
 time for this factor to be felt, it is very consistant and exerts a strong 
 influence. It usually pays, therefore, to grow lettuce in given sections 
 only at those times when lettuce of good quality can be produced. 
 
40 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 The commercial acreage of lettuce in the United States has 
 increased each year since 1918 with but one exception. Carlot ship- 
 ments of lettuce have shown an increase each year since 1918. During 
 this period the area in commercial plantings has grown from 16,090 
 acres to 141,430 acres ; and shipments have increased from 13,788 cars 
 to 53,260 cars. Practically all of these increases have been in the 
 states producing Iceberg-type lettuce, principally California, Arizona, 
 and Colorado. 
 
 POTATOES 
 
 Preliminary reports on acreage which growers intend to plant in 
 1930 incidate a total potato area of 3,570,000 acres. This is nearly 
 6 per cent larger than the area harvested in 1929. If the intended 
 acreage for 1930 is i)lanted and a yield in line with the trend in 
 recent years is secured, the total production in the United States 
 would be around 421,000,000 bushels, which would be about the 
 quantity produced in 1924, when prices fell to disastrously low levels. 
 
 Reports received from potato growers seem to indicate that in 
 nearly all states a larger acreage will be planted in 1930 than in 1929. 
 In practically all of the late-potato states except Maine and Idaho, 
 a majority of the commercial growers who reported harvesting large 
 acreages of potatoes in 1929 intend to plant reduced acreages this 
 season, the most extensive commercial growers planning the sharpest 
 reductions. On the other hand, a large proportion of the growers in 
 these states who reported they had harvested 10 acres or less are 
 planning increases, the largest percentages of increase being planned 
 by growers with less than 5 acres. In all of the early-potato sections 
 north to Virginia, Missouri, and Kansas substantial increases are being 
 planned by all classes of growers. It is impossible at this time to 
 determine accurately the total acreage which growers intend to plant 
 but considering the large proportion of the potato crop grown in fields 
 of less than 10 acres the average increase planned in the United States 
 as a whole is believed to be about 6 per cent larger than that planted 
 last year. This would indicate about 3,570,000 acres for harvest next 
 fall. This acreage would include about 2,296,000 acres in the so-called 
 surplus late-potato states, an increase of nearly 5 per cent over the 
 acreage harvested last year; 848,000 acres in the sixteen states grow- 
 ing late potatoes in quantities insufficient for their local needs, an 
 increase of nearly 4 per cent over the acreage harvested last year ; and 
 426,000 acres of early and late potatoes in the thirteen southern states, 
 an increase of nearly 18 per cent over the acreage harvested last year. 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 41 
 
 November reports from commercial potato growers in twelve 
 important early and second-early states indicated that an increase 
 of about 12 per cent in the commercial early-potato area was intended. 
 Recent reports show further increases over these intentions. At the 
 present time the reduced buying power of consumers from the high 
 level of 1929 appears to have prevented the seasonal price advance 
 which was expected. 
 
 A favorable factor in the early-potato situation, however, is that 
 the stock of old potatoes on hand at the beginning of the marketing 
 season for early potatoes will probably be unusually light. Stocks of 
 merchantable potatoes on hand January 1, 1930, in the thirty-five late 
 states were probably about three-fifths of the quantity on hand 
 January 1, 1929, and were probably the lowest since January 1, 1926. 
 As the relatively light holdings on January 1, 1930, will probably 
 find outlets at good prices, early potatoes will meet correspondingly 
 less competition. 
 
 RICE 
 
 An acreage of rice in California in 1930 equal to that in 1929 
 would with average yields produce a crop that would about fulfill the 
 requirements of the domestic markets and Hawaii. Production in 
 excess of this amount must be sold in foreign markets, particularly 
 Japan. 
 
 Yields per acre in California in 1929 were unusually high, but 
 with a decrease in acreage of 28 per cent below that of 1928, pro- 
 duction amounted to only 6,175,000 bushels as against 8,171,000 
 bushels the previous year. Stocks on hand at the beginning of the 
 crop year in 1929 were less than on the same date in 1928. The 
 1929-30 supply of California rice, therefore, is considerably less than 
 last season but is still definitely on an export basis. 
 
 Present indications are that exports of the 1929 crop will be 
 sufficiently large to result in a further reduction in stocks on hand 
 at the beginning of the 1930 marketing season. The smaller pro- 
 duction of rice in Japan in 1929 and the recent stabilization of 
 Japanese currency are favorable factors in the export situation. On 
 the other hand, the low prices prevailing in Asiatic rice-exporting 
 countries may tend to restrict purchases of California rice by Japan, 
 while the large rice crops of Italy and Spain may tend to reduce 
 California exports to Europe and South America. 
 
42 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ 39 
 
 SUGAR BEETS 
 
 According to the federal outlook report the world sugar produc- 
 tion probably will continue large and prices relatively low, but appar- 
 ently the tendency to increase production has been checked and some 
 slight improvement in prices is in prospect. The world production 
 in the current season (1929-30) may be slightly less than that of the 
 past season, but any decrease will be partially offset by the larger 
 stocks at the beginning of the season. The prospect for reduction is 
 in cane-sugar production. The world beet-sugar crop appears to be 
 about equal to that of a j^ear ago. According to present prospects 
 Cuba, Java, and India have smaller crops. 
 
 Reports to date indicate that the world raw-sugar production for 
 the present season may be about 3 per cent below the record crop of 
 the past season, but still 4 per cent above the 1927-28 crop. The 
 record of stocks on hand is not complete but available data indicate 
 an increase not quite equal to the prospective decrease in production. 
 In the meantime, world consumption has continued to increase. World 
 consumption for the past season has been estimated at about 30 million 
 short tons as compared with over 28 millions in the previous season. 
 This increase in consumption was, of course, partly due to lower 
 prices. 
 
 The world expansion in the production of both cane and beet sugar 
 appears to have been checked temporarily at least. European beet 
 acreage increased rapidly after the war, reaching a peak in 1928. 
 The area outside of Russia in 1928 was more than 20 per cent greater 
 than before the war. Russia has recovered her average prewar area 
 in sugar beets. The area of beets now being harvested in Europe is 
 slightly less than that of 1928. This reduction may prove to be only 
 temporary or it may mark a check in the European expansion of 
 beet-sugar production. 
 
 WHEAT 
 
 According to the federal outlook report there is little in the wheat 
 situation in the United States and other countries at present to indi- 
 cate that prices for the 1930 crop of the United States will be much 
 different from those prevailing for the 1929 crop. World stocks will 
 be somewhat lower on July 1, 1930, than on July 1, 1929, but the 
 world acreage will probably not be materially changed and yields 
 per acre are not likely to be so low as in 1929, when they were below 
 
1930] The 1930 AcxRicultural Outlook for California 48 
 
 average. World demand for wheat appears to be increasing, although 
 the annual increase may be checked occasionally by unfavorable 
 financial or international trade conditions. This increased demand is 
 due to growth of population and to the tendency to shift in consump- 
 tion from other breadstuffs to wheat. World production of wheat, 
 however, is keeping pace with the increasing demand, so that there is 
 little prospect for a general upward trend in prices for some years 
 to come. Farmers of the United States, therefore, must expect to 
 meet continued keen competition in export markets from Canada, 
 Australia, Argentina, and later on possibly Russia. 
 
 The estimated world total acreage, exclusive of Russia and China, for 
 harvest in 1929 was 245,000,000 acres, as compared with 244,700,000 
 acres in 1928, and a five-year average of 234,000,000. There has been 
 a tendency to increase acreage in all important exporting countries 
 during the last five years. It is possible that acreage expansion may 
 be checked temporarily^ by the experience of the last two seasons. 
 Preliminary estimates indicate that the acreage harvested last season 
 in European countries (outside of Russia) was somewhat less than 
 the high figure of 1928. Conditions are not very favorable for 
 expanding the wheat area during the coming yaer in surplus-produc- 
 ing countries competing with the United States. It is possible that 
 Canada will maintain its present acreage, but a low price in the 
 1928-29 season, followed by a season of low yields in 1929-30 and 
 only moderate prices, may discourage expansion for a short time. 
 Furthermore, the prairie provinces went into the winter with a 
 deficiency of moisture, which may tend to reduce yields below average 
 in 1930 unless the spring season is very favorable. Not much, if any, 
 expansion is to be expected in Australia, where some areas have had 
 a short crop in the season just closing. In Argentina low wheat 
 prices and low yields may tend to encourage shifting from wheat to 
 corn and flax, for corn prices have been good and there is prospect 
 of a good crop, and flax prices are unusually high. 
 
 The production of forty-one countries in 1929 (which in 1928 
 harvested 96 per cent of the world's crop, outside of Russia and 
 China) is now estimated to be 3,272,000,000 bushels, as compared with 
 3,800,000,000 last year, and the five-year average (1924-1928) of 
 3,524,000,000. However, the reduced production in 1929 was brought 
 about by reduction in yield and not by reduction in acreage. The 
 average yield per acre for all countries reporting acreages and yields 
 in 1929 was 14 bushels, as compared with 16 bushels in 1928, and 
 the five-year average of 15 bushels per acre. Although there are some 
 indications that yields per acre have a slight upward tendency, it 
 
44 California Agricultural Extension Service [Circ. 39 
 
 appears certain that the yields in 1928 were abnormally high, whereas 
 the yields of last season were about as much below average as those 
 of the previous season had been above. 
 
 It is probable that stocks will be somewhat reduced by the begin- 
 ning of the next crop year, July 1. Stocks on farms in the United 
 States on January 1, 1930, were about 50,000,000 bushels below stocks 
 a year ago, but this is largely offset by an increase in the visible 
 supply and mill stocks compared with a year ago. The carryover of 
 old wheat for North America at the close of the marketing year 
 July 1, 1930, will probably be large but if the expected increase in 
 exports over those of this season to date materialize during the next 
 few months, stocks will be less than on July 1, 1929. Stocks of wheat 
 in Argentina and Australia will probably be smaller on account of 
 the very short crops, so that export demand for United States wheat 
 should be better in June, July, and August than in the corresponding 
 months last year. With a smaller carryover, world prices might 
 average slightly higher, but any great improvement in prices could 
 result only from yields below average. Similarly a season of yields 
 higher than average would result in lower prices. 
 
 BARLEY 
 
 The price of California barley is affected to a considerable extent 
 by the export demand for malting grades as well as by the require- 
 ments for feed. Since 1921 the price of export barley at San Fran- 
 cisco has varied inversely with the quantity of barley exported. 
 California exports have declined from an average of 347,000 tons for 
 the three crops of 1921-1923 to an average of 225,000 tons for the 
 crops of 1927 and 1928. This is a decline of 35 per cent. During 
 this same period California barley production has declined only 8 per 
 cent. Information is not available regarding the prospective demand 
 for barley for malting purposes in European countries during the 
 coming year. 
 
 According to the federal outlook report, no material improvement 
 in demand for United States barley is in prospect for the crop year 
 beginning August 1, 1930. Prospective numbers of livestock indicate 
 no expansion in domestic requirements, while European prospects 
 suggest only a slight increase in foreign demand. Some increase in 
 hog numbers in several European countries and the likelihood that 
 such bountiful crops of feed grains as were produced in 1929 will 
 not be repeated in 1930, promise somewhat larger European imports of 
 feed grains than during the past season. Such an increase in European 
 
1930] The 1930 Agricultural Outlook for California 45 
 
 demand for feed grains may be reflected in greater takings of United 
 States barley, although increased competition may be expected from 
 Canada and Argentina where acreage is expanding. 
 
 A record acreage of barley in the United States totaling 13,212,000 
 acres was harvested in 1929. Yields were about 5 bushels per acre less 
 than in 1928 but only slightly below average, and a total crop of 
 307,105,000 bushels was produced as against 357,487,000 in 1928. 
 Farm and market stocks on August 1 totaled 24,880,000 bushels, com- 
 pared with 11,147,000 the previous year, so that total supplies of 
 barley were only about 10 per cent below the record amount of 
 last season. 
 
 Barley production in Europe in 1929 was about 9 per cent above 
 the 1928 crop and in addition Europe had large oat and potato crops 
 and an exceptionally large corn crop. There was also increased com- 
 petition from Danubian and Russian barley in European markets 
 during the past season so that imports of American barley were 
 greatly reduced, and there are no prospects of any material improve- 
 ment in export demand during the remainder of this crop year. 
 United States barley exports from August 1 through December totaled 
 only about 14,500,000 bushels, compared with 41,000,000 bushels for 
 the corresponding period last year. While the 1929 United States 
 crop was about 50,000,000 bushels below the record crop of 1928, most 
 of this decrease has been offset by the increased stocks at the beginning 
 of the season and by the reduced exports, so that the carryover next 
 August now promises to equal the large supplies in store at the begin- 
 ning of the current season unless there is an unexpected increase in 
 domestic consumption or in exports. 
 
 38m-2,'30