;dAinirirv>' ^^.OFCALIFOMij^ •^ -< '■'-^oj/\!iNii-3W^' 1 ■"f% '^0/:. ^ ^ n 7\ > 3i .^MM .M!NIVERy/, ■^r: mwmr ON CEllTAIN TESTS THRIVING POPULATION. FOUR LECTURES DELIVERED DEFORE THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD, In Lent Term, 1845. BY TRAYERS TWISS, D.C.L. F.R.S. PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL ECONOMr, AND FELLOW OF UNIVERSITY COLLEGE, OXFORD. LONDON: LONGMAN, BROWN, GREEN, AND LONGMANS, PATERNOSTER -ROW. 1845. London : Printed by A. Spottiswoode, New- Street- Square. O / I "y CO CJJ S i ADVERTISEMENT. The following Lectures have been selected for ^^ publication from the course delivered in Lent ^ Term, 1845, in accordance with the conditions ^ of the foundation of the Professorship of Political Economy. Their form has been slightly re- modelled, from the necessity of omitting some portions which were connected with the subse- quent Lectures, and the tabular results of M. cjD Mallet's researches at Geneva have been inserted g for the first time in the fourth Lecture, as they ==^ could not well be delivered orally. The title which has been prefixed has been selected as explanatory of the questions which have been chiefly discussed ; but the general scope of the course of Lectures was more comprehensive. If, therefore, the accompanying discussions should seem to be incomplete, the requisitions of the foundation must furnish my excuse for their fragmentary character. T. T. University College, Oxford, April 10. 1845. 8/|! .15 ,/?"^ Q .T> TESTS or A THRIVING POPULATION. LECTURE I. Adam Smith, in the 8tli chapter of the " Wealth of Nations," has laid it down that " the most decisive mark of the prosperity of a country is the increase of the number of its inhabitants." " It is plain, however," adds Mr. M'Culloch in commenting on this passage, " that this remark must be received with great modification," and M. Blanqui, in his improved edition of M. Gar- ni er's French version of Dr. Smith's work, ap- pends at the foot of the page the words " et rireland ! " It can hardly be doubted that a decrease of the population is amongst the most conclusive symptoms of the decay of a country ; and if Dr. Smith's statement had been slightly qualified, if he had laid it down that the increase of the 2 TESTS OF relative number of inhabitants, who are of full age and strength to labour, is in one respect the surest indication of the thriving and prosperous state of a community, his position might have been unassailable. Experience, however, has abundantly shown that there are circumstances under which the absolute numbers of a com- munity may increase without any amelioration in their physical condition, and sometimes even with considerable deterioration. " The Wealth of Nations " was pubhshed in 1776. At that time its author, in illustration of his statement above quoted, and in confirma- tion of what he had previously asserted in re- spect to North America being much more thriving than England, observes, that in Great Britain and most other European countries, the inhabitants " are not supposed to double in less than 500 years. In the British Colonies and in North America it has been found that they double in twenty or twenty-five years." How little did this eminent writer then anticipate that within the comparatively short interval which has elapsed since he wrote his great work, the population of Great Britain would have actually doubled itself, that is, within a period of less than seventy years. For, if we take the average estimate of the population of Great Britain in 1776, at 9,100,000, we shall find, from the census A THEIVING POPULATION. 3 of 1841, the numbers increased to 18,844,434. Again, if we cast our eyes a little further back, we shall perceive this acceleration steadily in progress, since the population of England and Wales more than doubled itself in the period between 1740 and 1821. It would be an interesting investigation to ascertain accurately the corresponding progress of Great Britain, in its various branches of ma- terial prosperity. Such an enquiry, however, would exceed the limits to which I propose to confine myself on the present occasion. I shall therefore briefly direct your attention to a few facts. That the prosperity of Great Britain should have increased, would require not merely that its population and the means of subsistence should have doubled in a given period ; for so long as population and subsistence march abreast, no change can take place in the material condi- tion of a people, but that its capital should have increased faster than its population. A money estimate of the capital of Great Britain would not enable us to determine this problem, for such an estimate would be so much afi'ected by the variations in the exchangeable value of money, as to furnish no safe criterion. For in- stance, the increased money value of the rental of land in England would not necessarily indicate the proportion in which the productiveness of B 2 4 CONSUMPTION agriculture had been augmented: if in the course of the last 150 years the money rents in Eng- land should have been trebled, or in some cases quadrupled, Ave should not therefore be war- ranted in concluding that the landlord's propor- tion of the produce had been increased in that ratio. Again, the declared value or money value of our manufactured exports would be a totally false measure of the increase of the quantity exported, if their quantity be looked to as an index of the growth of our manufacturing capi- tal. For our present purpose, therefore, I shall prefer to test the increase in the prosperity of the population by their increased consumption of certain given articles of food, which implies an increased power of procuring the necessaries of life, resulting undoubtedly from the increased efficiency of their labour. Let us take, for instance, the article of grain in the first place. Mr. Charles Smith, in his Tracts on the Corn Trade, estimated the population of England and Wales in 1760 at 6,000,000, which is sufficiently near the truth for our present en- quiry. The entire consumption of grain at that time he estimated to be 7,550,350 quarters, of which 3,750,000 quarters were wheat, and of the remainder 1,026,125 consisted of barley, 999,000 of rye, and 1,791,225 of oats. The change which has taken place in the spe- OF GRAIN IN ENGLAND. 5 cies of grain used for bread in England since the period referred to by Mr. Smith, is notorious. Rye has almost entirely ceased to be employed. The same remark might almost be applied to barley ; and oatmeal and oatcake are not con- sumed to anything like the same extent as in the previous century. Almost every individual now uses wheaten bread, and in some of our manu- facturing towns the inferior sorts even of wheaten flour have been rejected by all, except the most indigent, classes. The total average produce of grain in England and Wales has been estimated, within the last ten years, at 29,450,000 quarters, of which 12,450,000 quarters consist of wheat. (M'Cul- loch's Statistics of the British Empire, i. 529.) It would thus appear that whilst the population of England and Wales has doubled, the con- sumption of wheat, as well as of other grain, has nearly cj[uadrupled ; for the home producer is unable to supply the demand of the consumers, and an annual average of at least 500,000 quar- ters of wheat may be added to the total quantity produced at home, on account of foreign im- portations. In a similar manner, in regard to butcher's meat, if we take the market of the metropolis, we shall find that the number of cattle and sheep annually sold at Smithfield has doubled within B a 6 CONSUMPTION the last century, whilst the weight of the car- case has also more than doubled in that interval. In the early part of last century (1710), accord- ing to an estimate made by Dr. Davenant, the nett weight of the cattle sold at Smithiield averaged not more than 370 lbs., whilst calves averaged about 50 lbs., and sheep 28 lbs. In 1800 the nett weight of the cattle was estimated at 800 lbs., of the calves at 140 lbs., of the sheep at 80 lbs. Owing to a clerical error in the se- cond edition of Mr. M'Culloch's " Commercial Dictionary," where this was stated as the gross weight, a French author has been enabled to make out a more favourable case for the inhabit- ants of Paris than for those of our metropolis ; but the error has since been corrected in the third edition of that valuable work. Again, in 1742 we find 79,601 head of cattle, 503,260 sheep, to be the numbers sold at Smithfield ; in 1842 the numbers had increased to 175,347 cattle, 1,438,960 sheep. According to the cal- culation which Mr. M'CuUoch adopted for the amount in 1830, when he sets down 154,434,850 lbs. for the supply of butcher's meat required in London, if we assume the population to have then amounted to 1,450,000, exclusively of some suburban districts, we should find the average annual consumption of each individual to be very nearly 107 lbs. In the last edition of his OF MEAT IN ENGLAND. 7 Dictionary published in 1842, he sets clown the consumption in 1842 at 228,542,340 lbs. for the metropolis, and consequently assigns 120^ lbs. to each individual. Tliis may, however, be possibly a little above the mark, as the convenience of transport by railroad has made Smithfield the central market of a far larger circle than here- tofore. The returns obtained by the Statistical Society of Manchester, as to the cattle sold in the mar- kets of that town, furnish an annual consump- tion of not less than 105 lbs. of butcher's meat for each inhabitant. In Paris, on the other hand, the quantity has been estimated by M. Chabrol at from 85 to 86 lbs. per head ; and in Brussels it is supposed to average 89 lbs. AVe thus find that the consumption of animal food in the towns of England far exceeds that of foreign cities ; and as this consumption has gone on steadily increasing, we are warranted in con- cluding that the labour of the English people is not only more efficient as compared with that of other nations, but is daily acquiring greater efficiency, if the present be contrasted with pre- vious results. It will be unnecessary to pursue this examin- ation further, as few persons mil deny that the absolute increase of the population of England and Wales has been accompanied not merely with B 4 8 CONSUMPTION a proportionate, but a relative augmentation of material prosperity; nor do I think that it can be disputed, that an absolute increase of national prosperity will be invariably attended with an increase of population. AVhere the means of subsistence are more easily procured, the natural impulse of man will lead him to marry. Celi- bacy cannot be a matter of indifference in a healthy state of society, as it is essentially an incomplete state of existence. The circumstances of Ireland are not identical with those of England ; nor can we apply the same simple tests of the improved condition of its population. Of the 8,000,000 of its people, 5,000,000 are, according to Mr. M'Cul- loch, principally dependent upon the potato for support, and 2,500,000 upon oats. We may form an approximate estimate of the present comparative consumption of the Irish and British people, as indicative of their respective pro- ductive power, in the following rough manner. The money value of the entire annual produce of the land in Ireland has been calculated at 45,000,000/. Of this amount about 10,000,000/. may be deducted for various outgoings, under which the nett rent paid to absentees is reckoned, so that about 35,000,000/. of agricultural pro- duce would remain to be divided amongst a popu- lation of about eight millions. This would allow OF FOOD IN IRELAND. 9 a consumption of rather more than 4/. in value to each individual. In Great Britain, a popula- tion of rather more than eighteen millions con- sumes agricultural produce of the value of about 143,000,000/., which allows nearly the value of 8/. to each individual. We might perhaps be justified in making some allowance in the Irish estimate, from the greater exchangeable value which money possesses in Ireland : on the other hand, if the commercial exports of agricultural produce should be found to exceed the amount of nett rental f)^itl to absentees, the balance would have to be deducted from the home con- sumption. But in estimating the comparative progress made by the two countries, there are greater difiiculties from this circumstance, that whilst the quality of the food used by the English people has improved, the reverse has taken place in the case of the Irish people ; so that the increased value of the gross amount of agricultural produce would not correspond to the increased quantity of pro- duce available for consumption. If it be a correct statement, that, whilst the population of Great Bri- tain has doubled, the quantity of agricultural pro- duce of a given kind has quadrupled, the efficiency of the labour employed in raising that produce will at least have doubled ; but if the produce, as in Ireland, whilst it has increased in quantity. 10 DETERIORATION has deteriorated in quality, tlie efficiency of the labour of the agricultural population will not have increased pari jyassu with the quantity. In 1778, Arthur Young estimated the gross rental of Ireland at 6,000,000?. : in the present day it is calculated to amount to 12,715,478/. In 1771, A. Young estimated the rental of Eng- land and Wales at 16,000,000/. : it was calculated in 1836 to have been a little below 30,000,000/., though in 1815 it was as high as 34,330,462/. If now it be correct to refer the increase of the gross rentals of the two countries to analogous facts, whatever they may be, connected with the increased gross amount of agricultural produce, the value of that gross amount must be supposed to have quadrupled in Ireland, as in the case of Eng- land. But during this interval of less than 70 years, the population of Ireland has trebled itself, for the number of souls which' in 1777 amounted to 2,690,556 had increased in 1841 to 8,175,124, whilst the English population has only doubled itself. The progress, therefore, of the Irish people, in respect of the increased efficiency of their labour, will only have been half as great as that which the English returns exhibit. This circumstance is at once accounted for by the substitution of an inferior article of food, such as the potato, in place of grain ; and though the quantity of agricultural produce must have in- IN QUALITY OF FOOD. 11 creased to support the increased numbers of the population, its value has not increased in pro- portion, from its quality being inferior. It has been remarked that in Ireland the population has increased in a more rapid ratio in those provinces in which agriculture has made the slowest improvement. Thus from the tables of the census of 1831, it appears that in the province of Leinster, where there are several very large towns, and where the agricultural sys- tem has very considerably improved by the side of an increased growth of trade and manufactures, the increase of the population in the preceding ten years was only 9 per cent. ; whilst in Connaught, the agriculture of which has scarcely improved at all, and the manufactures are hardly worthy of notice, the increase has not been less than 22 per cent. To a similar purport we find, from the census of 1841, that in Leinster the an- nual proportion of births to the mean population was 1 in 32*3, whilst in Connaught it was 1 in 28 ; and whilst the increment of population in the former province has been rather less than one thirtieth, that of the latter has been rather more than one twentieth of the respective numbers in 1831. The prosperity however of Connaught has not been commensurate. Mr. M'CuUoch, in his Statistical Account of the British Empire, seems to consider it beyond 12 AGRICULTURAL doubt, tliat this rapid increase of the population in Connaught is wholly to be ascribed to the splitting of land, which is there carried into effect with the most deteriorating influence both on the system of cultivation, and the condition of the occupiers of soil. The smallness of the holdings prevents the cultivators from adopting a generous system of cultivation, and forces a great quantity of pasture land into tillage, inde- pendently of other causes. This system, accord- ing to Mr. Button's evidence, pubhshed in the Report of the Agricultural Committee of 1833, has been carried on to the most injurious extent, and the increase in the growth of oats and barley, as it has not resulted from an improved system of tillage, but rather from turning up improvi- dently old pasture land, has only served to stimulate population unduly. Ireland presents many features of similarity in its agricultural system to those which may be observed in British India. The first volume of Professor H. H. AVilson's " History of British India from 1805 to 1835 " contains much valu- able information on the subject of landed tenure in our Indian possessions ; and I should be de- sirous, on a future occasion, to trace out the more important features of resemblance in this respect between the two countries. Connaught is not the only province of Ireland Avhere minute SYSTEM IN IRELAND, 13 subdivision of land is a prominent evil. In Munster, and even in Ulster, farms are frequently held in partnership, and divided amongst the family of the previous occupant. Dr. Kelly, late Roman Catholic Archbishop of Tuam, in his e\adence before the Select Committee of the House of Commons in 1830, on the state of Ireland, said that he knew a farm in his neish- bourhood which was originally leased on the partnership system to about twenty families, and he afterwards recollected to have seen sixty families living on the same farm. Under such a system of management, where white crops suc- ceed each other as long as the land will produce them, agriculture must necessarily deteriorate, and, with the exhaustion of the soil, the con- dition of the cultivators must become depressed. The con-acre system of allotment, which is per- haps carried to the greatest extent in Connaught, is very prevalent in some parts of Munster, in the county of Tipperary for instance. " Under this system the occupiers of the larger farms sublet to the peasants or cottiers small slips of land, varying from a perch to half an acre for a single season, to be planted with potatoes, or white crops. Old grass land is frequently let out in this manner, and the surface is allowed to be pared and burnt for manure. The rent ex- acted is enormous, sometimes, according to the 14 TARTNERSHIP evidence before the Agricultural Committee of 1833, amounting to 12/. or 13/. per acre. Po- tatoes are usually first planted on con-acre land, and a succession of ten or a dozen corn crops follow ; so that there can be no improvement of the soil : on the contrary, nothing but its extra- ordinary natural fertility could support such destructive treatment. When at last the soil is incapable of producing any thing, it is left to recover itself by the action of the rain and at- mosphere on its elements." The custom of equally dividing the paternal inheritance amongst the several members of each family, either founded upon or giving rise to the generally received notion of the equal and in- alienable right of all the children to the inherit- ance of their father's property, whether lands or goods, has tended to increase the subdivision of land as already alluded to. This custom ex- tends not merely to freehold, but likewise to leasehold property; and it furnishes a remark- able illustration of the fact, how utterly ineffec- tive legislation becomes where the laws are not in harmony with the manners of a people. For though the statute law allows the landlord to prohibit this subdivision by express clauses in the lease, yet courts of law have shown them- selves hostile to such limitation, and juries have uniformly awarded nominal damages, if ever OF FARMS IN IRELAND. 15 their verdict has suj)ported the principle of the law. This subdivision is not limited to the sons, but even the daughters are generally portioned with a patch of land ; and in some districts, strange to say, in the county of Waterford for instance, according to Mr. Wakefield, " when the eldest daughter of a farmer marries, the father, instead of giving her a marriage portion, divides his farm between himself and his son-in-law. The next daughter receives half the remainder, and this subdivision is continued as long as there are daughters to be disposed of. The sons are left to shift for themselves in the best way they can." Whether this peculiar custom is at all to be at- tributed to the distinct origin of the people in this district, it would be foreign to inquire. The custom of portioning the inheritance amongst the daughters instead of the sons, is said by Mr. Walpole to prevail very generally amongst the islanders of the Greek Archipelago. The ten- dency of such a custom is evidently to encourage, if not to force, the youths to marry as soon as possible the daughters of their neighbours: and we should not be surprised to find the forcible abduc- tion of young women so long regarded with sym- pathy in a country Avhere all women are heiresses. Without pausing to examine more closely the opinion of Mr. M'Culloch, that the rapid increase of population in Ireland is wholly ascribable to 16 AGRICULTURAL the splitting of land (" Statistical Account of the British Empire," vol. i. p. 441.), we may be quite satisfied that the custom has taught every individual brought up in the country to look to the land for his support. It has thus secured to the peasantr}' a wretched sort of half-savage in- dependence, and has, in consequence, given a powerful stimulus to population. Scotland presents a remarkable contrast to Ireland both in the principle and the results of its agricultural system. The tenant has rarely the power to sublet or subdivide his farm, and at his death it must descend to his heir-at-law. The younger children are thus made aware that they must not trust to the land for support, but must direct their labour to some other occupa- tion ; and this circumstance has contributed to foster that enterprising spirit, and adventurous temper of mind, for which natives of Scotland are remarkable. The land is thus allowed to follow the ordinary laws which regulate the re- lations of capital and labour. As capital accu- mulates, it is applied on a larger scale to land, and agriculture enlists more and more in its service the aid of science, and the cultivator is thereby enabled to produce the primary neces- saries of life under analogous advantages to those which the manufacturer enjoys. There is one consideration which we must not SYSTEM IN SCOTLAND. 17 overlook in instituting comparisons between the national divisions of the British Empire in re- spect to the increase of their respective popula- tions : we must remember that England is the centre to which two very considerable tides of local migration converge from Ireland and Scot- land, and that a steady current of emigration from Ireland sets in toward the manufacturing districts on the west coast of Scotland. With this caution in view, we may admit the fact as certain, that the increase of population in Scotland, as compared with the increase of Avealth, has been less rapid than in England, and much less rapid than in Ireland. In consequence of this the Scotch are said to have made a greater advance than the English or Irish people in their means of com- manding: the necessaries and conveniences of life. AVe should be prepared to expect such a result, as far as the effect of emigration is concerned. Emigrants to an old established country like England can hardly be expected to thrive so well as those whom they have left behind in Scotland; for those who are left behind have not merely the advantage, most probably, of pursuing an occupation to which they have been trained from infancy, but they have also the assistance of the fixed capital in the establishments which they have inherited, and which ought to enable them to employ their circulating capital or their labour c 1 8 EFFECTS Avith greater effect than the emigrant to England can hope to do. In regard, however, to the Irish emigrant to England, he may be in a very different situation relatively to his companions whem he has left at home. He, indeed, may hope to thrive more rapidly ; for he has sought a country where the industrial system is far better organised than in that which he has quitted, and where the subdivision of labour is carried out so completely as to afford to every kind of industry a place ; whilst he has left behind him a popula- tion battling with the soil for support, single- handed, as it were, without the aid of capital, whose condition must of necessity become daily more depressed from no accumulation of capital being possible under such circumstances. It is clear, however, under any circumstances, that the Scotch system, as a fact, has been attended with results which have not been surpassed in any European country, whether we regard the progress of Scotland in material prosperity, or in the civilization which has accompanied it. If, however, we admit that extensive emigration will account in some degree for the comparatively slow increase of the agricultural population, still emigration acts only in the manner of a positive check to population, the influence of which will be absolutely inappreciable, unless there are pre- ventive checks in simultaneous operation. But OF EMTGRATIOX. 19 the circumstance that the progress of population has been less rapid than the progress of wealth may assure us that there are adequate preventive checks in operation, growing out of either the social institutions or the moral habits of the Scotch people. I have employed the terms positive and pre- ventive to distinguish the two great classes of checks upon population in accordance with the nomenclature of Mr. Malthus. Perhaps, were I called upon to coin new terms, I might be in- clined to adopt the expression diminutive in pre- ference to positive, distinguishing the checks to population according as they effect an actual decrease in numbers, by shortening the duration of human life, or preclude an increase by re- straining the natural inclination of man to con- tinue his race. In proposing, however, a change in the classi- fication of actual checks, as laid do^vn by Mr. Malthus, and adopted by the most eminent economical writers without objection, amongst whom Mr. Senior and Mr. M'Culloch may be enumerated, I feel considerable diffidence. It is almost invariably found to be the case, that no system of classification will be quite exhaustive, if I may use such a term to imply a classifica- tion of which the heads are entirely distinct. On the contrary, even in the moral classification of c 2 20 DIFFICULTY actions under the heads of vokmtary and in- voluntary, it was found that there was a class of actions which, when regarded from one point of view, presented the appearance of voluntary actions, whilst from another they seemed rather to be the result of some force or necessity, so that a third head of mixed actions was intro- duced. The comprehensive mind of the great founder of the most influential school of prac- tical philosophy — the author, I might almost call him, of the system of logical classification — found himself thus constrained to admit this unscientific exception to his proposed twofold division of human actions. He found a class of actions which, if he looked at the immediate circumstances attending them, seemed voluntary, because at the moment of action the agents preferred to do them ; but if he looked at the principle involved in them, they appeared to have been performed against the will of the agents. Such, I apprehend, will invariably be the difiiculty in reducing practical matters to scientific laws. It is impossible to subject them strictly to the same laws of accurate reasoning to which questions of a purely intellectual cha- racter admit of being reduced. In all attempts to classify, the intellect dictates the principles of classification ; but those principles, when they come to be applied to the various phenomena OF CLASSIFICATION. 21 of man's life, are found inadequate in their strictness to comprise all the facts. They are, as it were, intellectual formuloe applied to the deter- mination of practical questions, and the result is much the same as when the formulae of pure mathematics are applied to the solution of pro- blems in physics, where the result is only an approximation to the truth. Subsequent ob- servations, it is true, by the discovery of new phenomena, may subject many of these problems more strictly to the existing laws of classification, or mathematical analysis may discover more com- prehensive laws. Thus, the orbits of comets were supposed to satisfy the theory of bodies moving in a parabola : subsequent observation, however, has determined their orbits to be el- lipses whose major axes are infinitely greater than their minor axes. On this hypothesis they will fulfil different laws from those which would govern bodies moving in parabolas : they will return at regular intervals, as integral though eccentric members of the great system in which our sun and its attendant planets revolve. If, then, in physics, further and more correct ob- servations are found to warrant modifications of former methods of classification, a fortiori we should be prepared to expect further observa- tions in questions so contingent as those which are connected with the growth of human com- c 3 22 PREVENTIVE munities, to warrant changes in some of the branches of classification. Mr. Senior, in his " Lectures on Population," p. 10., observes, " Mr. Malthus has divided the checks to population into the preventive and the positive. The first are those which limit fe- cundity ; the second, those which decrease lon- gevity. The first diminish the number of births, the second increase that of deaths. And as fecundity and longevity are the only elements of the classification, it is clear that Mr. Mal- thus's division is exhaustive." Similar language, however, might, as it appears to me, have been used in commenting upon Aris- totle's division of human actions into voluntary and involuntary. Yet precisely as in attempting to apply this principle of classification, which was logically exhaustive, it was found that there were certain actions of an anomalous character, which, though they might be conditionally re- garded as voluntary, yet were absolutely per- formed by the agent against his will ; so in the attempt to group prudence or self-restraint, moral evil or vice, and physical evil or distress, under the twofold division of preventive and positive checks, moral evil or vice seems to elude our grasp, and, when regarded in one light, bears the appearance of a positive, in another of a pre- ventive, check. Mr. Malthus and Mr. Senior AND POSITIVE CHECKS. 23 both class moral evil under the head of preventive checks. I am disposed to consider that it should rather come under the division of positive or diminutive checks. I am not unaware that the greatest caution is requisite in ascertaining accurately the meaning in which these distinguished writers use the term " moral evil." Mr. Malthus certainly seems to admit that there are certain positive checks of a mixed nature, which are brought upon us by vice, and their consequences are misery, such as wars, sensual excesses, &c. These, indeed, when their result is physical evil, he would class with positive checks ; but inasmuch as there are many such checks, the general tendency of which is to produce misery, though they may accidentally, in their immediate or individual effects, not pro- duce it, as their result does not bring them under the head of physical evil or distress, and their effect, in his opinion, is rather to prevent an in- crease than cause a decrease in numbers, he considers they must be classed amongst the pre- ventive checks, and yet be distinguished by a peculiar name from prudence or self-restraint. But it appears to me, that if we look to the vicious habits of any society as exerting a check upon population sufficiently important in its ef- fects as to require to be classed under a distinct head, their operation will be found to be rather of c 4 24 MORAL EVIL, a positive than a preventive character. Doubt- less there have been societies in heathen times, or in heathen countries, as in Rome, for instance, under the emperors, or in China and some of the islands of the Pacific Ocean in the present day, where the habits of life of a great mass of the people are calculated to retard the rate of in- crease by limiting fecundity. The condition of our own West Indian possessions would, a short time ago, have furnished us with a peculiar in- stance of a more anomalous kind ; but as it was so remarkably artificial, though on a rather large scale, it may be neglected in the consideration of general causes. But in resrard to the civilised communities of modern Europe, it would seem that we are well warranted in inferring the case to be otherwise, and that the effects of vice are exhibited rather in an increased mortality, than a diminished rate of increase. The data, which the more accurate statistics of the French police have of late furnished, and which the careful researches of such writers as Parent Duchatelet, Fregier, Ducpetiaux, and others have confirmed, seem to be quite decisive as to the fact, that the positive check which vice exercises on the growth of population in diminishing longevity is infinitely greater than the preventive check ; and that as vice partakes of a mixed character, we are justly entitled to class it with those A rOSITIVE CHECK. 25 checks with whicli it seems most akin in its re- sults. Mr. Malthus S3ems to admit that the general tendency of vice is to produce physical misery, and that the contrary result is an ex- ception to the general rule. But surely, in at- tempting to clothe such investigations in a philosophical dress, we must direct our atten- tion to the general, and not to the particular ope- ration of each cause ; and there appear to be two valid reasons why it is more desirable to class vice under the head of positive checks, in Avhich respect its influence is very considerable, than under the head of preventive checks, in which I agree with ]\Ir. Senior, that its social effects may be disregarded. The first and obvious reason is, that as the object of such investigations is to discover the true laws which regulate the growth of popula- lation, it is of the utmost importance that the mode in which each check operates should be correctly determined ; otherwise the statesman mio;ht have his attention misdirected to other than the true causes of certain social evils, and misapply his remedies. In the second place, I cannot but consider that the classification of vice under the head of preventive checks has been a pretext, if not really a cause, for much of the popular outcry against the doctrine of Mr. Mal- ;hus, though no doubt the fundamental objection 26 OBJECTIONS TO THE to his views was to be found in the averseness of society to recognise the obnoxious necessity of discouraging rather than stimulating popula- tion by positive legislation. But at the time when he first published his Essay on the Prin- ciple of Population, the mass of mankind could little foresee the great changes, the dawn of which was slowly approaching. Hobbes had pronounced the state of nature to be a state of war, and even Locke had asserted that captives taken in a just war became by the right of na- ture the slaves of their captors. But a period was approaching when statesmen were destined to correct the errors of philosophers. The French Revolution, like the tempest which puri- fies the atmosphere, swept away on the con- tinent of Europe many worn-out traditions of the Roman Empire ; and whilst the genius of Napoleon made war loathsome to the nations of Europe, and his overthrow taught the French nation itself how little permanency even that genius could secure for conquests by the sword, the successful career of Great Britain was teach- in »• the world the surer mode of national ad- vancement through the arts of peaceful industry. War has thus lost its ancient sway in Europe over the imagination of nations, and the demand for new lives, which was entailed by its former frequent recurrence, with famine in its train, DOCTRINE OF MR. MALTHUS. 27 and pestilence not unfrequently following in its rear, has ceased to operate amongst the more en- lightened states, whilst the great problem which statesmen are employed in solving, is, how to combine the full employment of their own people with their free enjoyment of the fruits of their neighbours' industry. If, then, it be correct to take the view above suggested of moral evil, and to regard it as exerting a positive rather than a preventive check to population, there will be no objection to laying down broadly this proposition, that the advance of a nation in true civilisation will be commensurate with the mitigation of the posi- tive, and the increased action of the preventive, checks : in other words, that the prosperity of a country will vary inversely with the intensity of the positive checks, directly with the efficacy of the preventive checks. It is full time that the term Malthusian doctrine should cease to be a by- word of reproach. It was of the utmost im- portance that the world should rightly appre- ciate the startling statement of Mr. Malthus, that whilst food had a tendency to increase in an arithmetical, population has a tendency to increase in a geometrical ratio. Since, however, the correspondence of Mr. Senior with that dis- tinguished and much misrepresented writer has supplied the necessary correction for the errors 28 DOCTRINE OF MR. IMALTHUS which the unconditional statement of the ab- stract proposition might occasion, no one need fear to speak of Mr. Malthus's work with com- mendation. He may indeed, with the pardonable egotism of a discoverer, have exaggerated some- what the importance of his own conclusions, and by his abstract mode of propounding a great practical truth, have risked its immediate re- ception ; yet it cannot be denied that the con- troversy to which his essay has given rise, has led to the examination and solution of many prac- tical problems of the greatest interest, and that Mr. Senior has justly pronounced him to be en- titled to the gratitude of mankind, as a bene- factor, by the side of Adam Smith. " Whether, in the absence of disturbing causes," says Mr. Senior, " it be the tendency of subsistence or of population to advance with greater rapidity, is a question of slight importance, if it be acknow- ledged that human happiness or misery depends principally on their relative advance, and that there are causes, and causes within human con- trol, by which that advance can be regulated." And to use the words of Mr. Chancellor Raikes, " whilst many excellent men have deemed them- selves bound to impugn a system which, accord- ing to their views, impeached the benevolence of the Deity, those circumstances which a hasty view of the theory led men to think were in- MISUNDEESTOOD. 29 compatible with what they knew of the goodness of the Creator, have been shown by Bishop Sumner, in the second volume of the Records of the Creation, to be evidences of that very truth which they were supposed at one time to impeach." 30 INCREASED DURATION LECTURE II. It may be objected to the test of the prosperity of a people which has been adopted in the pre- vious lecture, — namely, its increased consumption of certain articles of food, as implying a pro- portionate increase of its productive power, — that it is of too general and vague a character to furnish any satisfactory criterion of the improved condition of individual life. A case might be supposed, where the growth of population should have been considerable from the number of births far exceeding the number of deaths, and the general productive power of the country, as evinced by the increased amount of produce, have been more than commensurately augmented, yet the result be consistent with the substitution of rude in the place of skilled industry, of infant in the place of adult labour, resulting from the in- vention of improved machinery. The productive power of the adult population might, consistently with such a state of things, be declining, the moral and material condition of the individuals might be deteriorating, and their tenure of life be, as a consequence, shortened. The condition of a country thus circumstanced could hardly be or HUMAN LIFE. ,^> I considered one of true prosperity, however much it might exhibit the external semblance. If, on the other hand, it should be found that, Avith the growth of its population, its productive power has increased, and with the increase of its pro- ductive power the average duration of human life is augmented, it can hardly be doubted that the necessary elements of prosperity are here combined, and that a state of things which fulfils these conditions must be one of satisfactory and substantial progress. But the determination of the question, whether the cypher of vitality has been raised or dimi- nished in the case of a given population during a considerable period of time, — such, for instance, as that of England and Wales, — is a more com- plicated task than might be reasonably supposed from the profusion of tables, upon which calcu- lations of the expectation of life are daily made in the numerous Life Insurance Offices. It might be expected that a comparison of the results exhibited by the later tables with those of the earlier tables would suffice to solve this problem : but, upon a careful examination of the various tables, it will be found that the re- sults presented by them are conclusions deduced irom very different data, and arrived at by very different methods ; and therefore they do not furnish any safe grounds for comparison. For 32 MEAN AGE AT DEATH. instance, " the mean age at death " alone supplies the data for calculation in the case of certain Life Tables, whilst the ages of the living, out of whose number the deaths have occurred at the several periods of life, form the important element in the construction of others. But " the mean age of the living" in a country where the births far exceed in number the deaths, diiFers very widely from " the mean age at death," and the former may be increasing whilst the latter has been reduced. These have been so often erroneously confounded, that it is most desirable to distinguish carefully from each other the facts which they represent. Thus the mean age at death is obtained by merely summing up the ages at which people die, and dividing the amount by the number of deaths ; but the mean age of the living is the quotient obtained by dividing the sum of the number of years which a given number of persons born in the same year have altogether lived, by the num- ber of persons. For instance, if 4,115,890 years be the sum total of the number of years which 100,000 persons born in the same year have lived, this sum being divided by 100,000 would give us 41 years and a fraction of a year as the mean duration of their lives. The mean age at death on the other hand does not require illustration. It is a conceivable supposition that the registers of two nations should exhibit the same number MEAN AGE OF THE LIVING. 33 of births and deaths, yet that the efficiency of the respective popukitions should be very different. In the one case the mortaUty might mainly prevail amongst the adult population, in the other in- stance amongst the infant and youthful members : in the one case the best quality of lives will have been carried off, in the other they will have sur- vived. The mean age at death will have aug- mented on the former of these suppositions, it will have decreased on the latter; whilst the mean age of the hving will have varied inversely as the mean age at death. It would be quite possible even for the mean age at death to have increased, and yet the actual numbers of the population to have diminished : as, for instance, in the case of the city of Amsterdam, where the average number of deaths during the twelve years preceding 1832 exceeded the number of births. A population so circumstanced will every day contain a greater proportion of old lives, and therefore the mean age at death will tend to increase, yet the population itself will be diminishing in numbers if the rate of mortality is constant. During the twelve years just enumerated, the tables of mortality gave the same proportion of deaths as in 1777, namely, 1 in 27. (Quetelet, de Physique Sociale, I. p. 157.) We have, however, assumed that one of the cri- teria of the prosperity of a population was the D 34 MR. milne's view. increase of its numbers: Amsterdam, therefore^ will for this reason not come under the class of prosperous communities. In England, the mean duration of life, accord- ing to the hfe table annexed to the Fifth Report of the Registrar General, is 41 years, (I purposely omit fractions,) and if the population remained stationary, the mean age of those who died would be 41 years, and 1 in 41 would die an- nually. The population, however, has increased nearly 1^ per cent, annually during the last 40 years, and we find that the mean age of the per- sons who died in 1841 was 29 years, whilst 1 in 46 of the population died. This is in perfect har- mony with what Mr. Milne has laid down in his article on Mortahty in the Encyclopsedia Bri- tannica, " that when the population has been increasing, the mean duration of life from birth, according to a table of mortality properly con- structed from the necessary data, mil be less than the number out of which one dies annually, but the difference will be small, except under very particular circumstances ; and again, that the mean duration of life, according to a table of mortality constructed from the number of deaths only in the different intervals of age, without comparing them with the number of living persons in the same intervals, — in other words, the mean age at death, — will fall short MEAN DURATION OF LIFE. 35 of the number out of which one dies annually by a much greater number than in the case just considered." This he illustrates by tables of ob- servations ; but in the case of England and Wales the differences are increased beyond the limit which he has assigned, owing to the very rapid increase of the population. This is a very important fact, and Mr. Milne proceeds to state that where the proportion of people dying annually is known, it will not be difficult to judge whether a table of mortahty for that people has been constructed properly from the necessary data : or, what is more com- mon and more easily effected, merely by the summation of deaths at all ages. In further illustration of the difference between the mean age at death, and the mean duration of life, as gathered from the ages of the living, it appears, in regard to Sweden, that from 1801 to 1805, during which the ages of the living out of which the deaths occurred were carefully enume- rated, the mean age at death was nearly 31 years, whilst the mean age of the living {the true basis, according to Mr. ]\Iilne, for calculatifig the mean duration of life,) was rather more than 39, and the proportion of deaths 1 in 41. In France, the ages of the living out of which the deaths regis- tered in the French census occurred, are not given, but it may be assumed that the calculation made D 2 3G FRENCH CENSUS. by M. Demonferrancl, whose tables were published in the year 1838, in vol. x\t.. of the Journal de I'Ecole Royale Polytechnique, approximates to the truth sufficiently for our present purpose. According to them the mean duration of life in France would be rather more than 39 years, whilst the census of 1831 gives us 34 years for the mean age at death, and the proportion of deaths as 1 in 42. So that the average age of the persons who died, or the mean age at death, would be 34 years in France, 31 in Sweden, 29 years in England, and a calculation of the expectation of life based upon data of this nature would evi-^ dently give a result unfavourable to England. Without attempting to decide what I am aware is a very difficult practical question, whether insurance offices are justified in regulating their transactions by life tables constructed according to this latter method, it is very clear that such life tables will not furnish the expectation of life which will answer the purpose of our pre- sent inquiry, which is to ascertain the efficiency of a given population. This must evidently be determined by the mean age of the living. The reason why the mean age at death is so much lower in England than in France or Sweden, is that the population is increasing much more rapidly. The mass of the people, therefore, are younger, and the mean age at death, which, PREPONDERANCE OF YOUTHFUL LIVES. 37 as already observed, is obtained by dividing the sum of the ages of those who die by the number of deaths, will be lower, as there ^vill be a greater proportion of low numbers among the ages at death. Mr. Milne has stated, what at first seems paradoxical, that in an increasing population the average age at death is less, and the annual mortality less, than in a stationary population having the same expectation of life. The cause of tliis is explained in the Fifth Annual Re- port of the Registrar General, which contains much valuable information on such questions. " The births exceeded the deaths in Eno-land in 1841, the former being registered at 512,158, the latter at 343,847. If the population were stationary, the births would be 343,847; they would maintain the existing poj)ulation. But the annual excess of 168,311 children, more or less, which have been thrown for many years into the English population, has pix)duced a preponderance of the youthful over the aged part of the population. If the law of mortality had remained constant, and the births and deaths had been equal for the last century, it would have been found that on an average about 35 in 100 of the people were under 20, and 14 in 100 above 60 years of age ; but it appears from the census that 46 in 100 were under 20 years, and only 7 in 100 above 60 years of age." T) 3 344G83 38 DE moivre's formula. The great difference here exhibited between the results of observation, and the results which theory would furnish on the hypothesis of the population being stationary, and the decrements of life, that is, the annual deaths being a constant quantity, is very great. Yet the distinguished analyst De Moivre, in the mathematical formulas which he published in 1724, in his treatise on Annuities on Lives, assumed the annual decrements of hfe to be equal, and its utmost limit eighty-six years, and on this hypothesis gave a general theorem, by which the values of annuities on single lives might be determined. Dr. Price, in the first edition of his work on Reversionary Payments, published in 1770, adopted this method in the construction of his Life Tables. On the other hand, the illustrious Enghsh astronomer, Halley, who had calculated what may be termed the first experimental life table so far back as 1693, which was published in the Transactions of the Royal Society of London for that year, had constructed it upon a series of observations on the movement of the popula- tion of the city of Brcslau in Silesia, when " the births did a little exceed the funerals." The question may reasonably suggest itself, if the mean duration of life, which term I shall use to designate the expectation of life calculated from the mean age of the living, is 41 years in halley's table. 39 England, why is the mortality so low as 1 in 46? To use the words of the Report already cited, " the reason is, that as the increase of the population has been long and progressive, an excess has been accumulated of persons between the ages of 5 and 55, among whom the mortality is lower than it is among persons of all ages. With the reduction in the relative numbers above the age of 60, this has more than compensated for the high rate of mortality among the excessive number of children under 3 years of age ; and has reduced the mortality below 1 in 41 an- nually, which would be the case if the popu- lation were stationary. As the populations of France and Sweden have not increased more than half as fast as the English population, the diminution of the age at death has been less considerable, though sufficient to derange all calculations and all comparisons, such as that of the ' mean age at death,' deduced upon the sup- position that in the populations compared the births and deaths have been equal, and the mor- tality uniform, for a long series of years." The statistical facts, therefore, with which our present inquiry is concerned, are evidently the variation in the rate of mortality^ and the varia- tion in the mean age of the living. If, for in- stance, the proportion of deaths to the population be diminished, or if the average life of the great D 4 40 EXPECTATION OF LIFE. mass be prolonged, we may be satisfied that the condition of the nation is improved in respect to vitality. The comparative mean age of the living at different periods would no doubt be the more important fact to ascertain, but it is only of late that the ages of the living out of which the deaths have taken place, have been enumerated in our own country, and that life tables on the more complete data have been cal- culated ; whilst in France, as already stated, this most essential element for calculating the par- ticular expectation of life with which the political economist or the statesman is concerned, has never yet been published. But even in comparing the rate of mortality at different periods there are greater difficulties than might be supposed. We must either have recourse to the actual returns of mortality, and we have no criterion for judging of the degree of accuracy with which the returns of the actual population were made, out of which the mor- tality is supposed to have taken place ; or we must go back to the calculations of scientific men, such as the Northampton Tables of Dr. Price, or the French Tables of Duvillard, which were considered by their respective authors to present all the results of the general mortality, and were made public as representing with suffi- cient accuracy the law of mortality. SWEDISH TABLES. 41 In speaking of the calculations of Dr. Price, founded on the observations of the bills of mor- tality at Northampton, we must carefully dis- tinguish them from the calculations of that justly celebrated author founded on the obseiTations of the population and deaths in Sweden and Fin- land, which had been published by M. Wargen- tin in the Memoirs of the Academy of Sciences at Stockholm in 1776. Dr. Price himself, in his Introduction to the Observations on Rever- sionary Payments, 4th edit. 1783, states, " that there are two kinds of data for forming tables of the probabilities of the duration of human life at every age. One is furnished by registers of m.ortality sho"wing the numbers dying at all ages ; the other, by the proportions of deaths at all ages to the numbers living at those ages, discovered by surveys or enumerations. Tables formed from the former of these data are cor- rect only when there is no considerable fluctua- tion among the inhabitants of a place, and the births and burials are equal. When there are more removals from than to a place, and the births exceed the burials, as is almost always the case in country parishes and villages, tables so formed give the probabilities of Hving too low. When the contrary happens, as is generally the case in towns, they give the probabilities of living too high. But tables formed from the latter of 42 MEMOIR OF M. WARGENTIN. these data are subject to no errors. They must be correct, whatever the fluctuations are in a place, and how great soever the inequalities may be between the births and deaths." He then con- tinues to state that the Swedish observations communicated to him by M. Wargentin " are more curious than any that have been yet pub- lished, and leave us little to wish for on this subject, except that similar observations were made in other kingdoms under the direction of men equally able and ingenious with M. War- gentin." The Northampton table, on the other hand, to use the words of Mr. Milne, in the article " Mor- tality " above alluded to, " was constructed by Dr. Price from the bills of mortahty (from the year 1735 to 1780) of the single parish of All Saints, containing a little more than half the in- habitants of the town ; and as the deaths exceeded the births in number, the author applied a cor- rection to the table under twenty years of age, which, if it had answered the intended purpose under that age, as we are satisfied it did not, could have no effect on any of the numbers above the same age ; and almost all the useful applications of such tables are to ages above twenty." " The table so formed could only be correct pro- vided both the numbers of the li\dng and the annual deaths at every age above twenty years, NORTHAMPTON TABLES. 43 had continued invariable during the 146 years that intervened between 1634, and 1780 ; pro- vided also, that no migration from or to the town took place, except at twenty years of age, and that the annual increase which the popula- tion received by migration at that age was just equal to the excess of the annual deaths above the annual births." It appears, however, from the abstracts of population, that the annual births and annual settlers in Northampton had been increasing ever since about the year 1715 or 1720: also, that although the burials exceeded the baptisms till the year 1802, the supply by immigration was much greater than that excess, and consequently that the numbers of the living had been accu- mulating more at the early ages, and less at the advanced ones, than would have been the case had the population remained stationary. Mr. Milne seems disposed to think that the unsettled state of the kingdom for some years before and after the death of Charles I. had pre- vented or greatly retarded the increase of the an- nual births during the time in which those persons were born, who died past 60 years of age between the years 1734 and 1781, and may account for the table after that age being near the truth, whilst the comparatively rapid increase of the people during the 60 years ending w^ith 1780 44 duvillard's table. appears to explain the great excess of mortality in that table at the early period. In regard to the Table of Duvillard, which is employed in French life offices, and is one of the two French tables given every year in the " Annuaire," we know very little of the data^ excepting that it was calculated upon 100,542 deaths at all ages amongst a population of 2,920,670 in different parts of France. The author first published it in 1806, in his " Analyse de r Influence de la petite Verole sur la Mortahte," and stated that it presented all the results of the general mortahty, according to a considerable number of facts collected before the Revolution in different districts of France, and that it ought to represent mth sufficient exactness the law of mortality. I have not been able to procure the work itself, but it seems that in his calculations the population was supposed to be stationary. M. Jules Bienayme, Inspecteur General de Fi- nances, in a memoir, " Sur la Duree de la Yie en France depuis le Commencement du XIX Siecle," read before the French Institute in 1835, and pub- lished in the Annales d'Hygiene, vol.xviii., states that the circumstance which brought Duvillard's table into repute was, that the census of the year XI (1803), which was taken at the request of La Place, made the proportion of annual births to the actual population very nearly identical with that MEMOIR BY M. BIENAYME. 45 given by Duvillard, namely, as 1 to 28|;. This caused the table of Deparcieux, which will be alluded to in the next Lecture, and which had hitherto been approved by men of science, to be laid aside for a time. M. Bienayme presumes the 101,542 deaths of Duvillard to have been those given by Messance, in his " NouveUes Recherches sur la Population de la France ; " and 2,920,672 persons, the whole number of the population upon which the observations had been made, divided by this number, evidently furnished the quotient 285, which was Duvillard's expectation of life at birth. The births, it will thus appear, were sup- posed not to exceed in number the deaths ; in which case, as above stated, the mean age of the living would be identical with the mean age at death. M. Matthieu had observed, in his notice, " Sur le Mouvement de la Population en France," in the " Annuaire" for the year 1826, that the alterations in the different elements of calcula- tion make this table altogether inapplicable to the present circumstances of the population. In a note to the Fifth Report of the Registrar General it is suggested that this Table probably involves the same errors as the Northampton Table. We must therefore not be surprised to find that the expectation of life calculated upon the more complete data which have been made use 46 M. demonferrand's table. of in constructing the English Life Tables of 1841 in the Registrar General's Report should be in appearance enormously augmented, when compared mth that given in the Northampton Table, or that the approximate expectation of life in France, calculated from official documents by M. Demonferrand, in which, however, there have not been furnished, as already stated, all the necessary elements, should bear a corresponding inordinate disproportion in excess over the table of Duvillard. Thus, whilst the Northampton Table gives the expectation of life at birth at nearly 25j years, the English Life Table of 1841 gives nearly 41^ years ; whilst Duvillard' s table gives us 28f years, the table of M. Demonferrand gives us rather more than 39^ years at birth. It may be observed, that M. Demonferrand gives the expectation of life for each month during the first year of life separately, whilst Duvillard's table gives the expectation of life for the entire first year in one sum ; so that we are at liberty to take the expectation of life at the end of six months, in M. Demonferrand's table, instead of the expectation in the first month, to make the comparison just. On this supposition, the latter table would give us about 42^ years for the average expectation of life in the first year. This very great discrepancy in the results makes it evident that the term expectation oflife^ or vie RATE OF MORTALITY. 47 moyenne, in the earlier tables, represents some very different fact from that which the later tables indicate, as it would be inadmissible to suppose that there had been a gain of 16 years average vitality to the English population, or of 15 years to the French, within a period of less than a century. These tables, therefore, will not furnish us with any basis of comparison in respect to the average duration of life. We must consequently have recourse to the comparative rate of mortality, if this can be ascertained with any degree of accuracy. If it should appear that the rate of mortality has gradually decreased during the last century, the average duration of life will have reciprocally in- creased during that period, though not in so great a ratio ; for, as already observed, in a com- munity where the annual births exceed the annual deaths considerably, which is the case both in England and in France, not only the actual population, but the proportion of young persons in it, must necessarily be augmented. Thus it is found from observation, that the people are younger in England than in France or Sweden, in accordance with the corresponding preponderance of births over deaths in the former country. It will therefore be impossible to attribute the diminished rate of mortality, where it is very remarkable, to any thing but a 48 MORTALITY AMONGST CHILDREN. decided improvement in the vitality of the youth- ful population, which of course implies an aug- mentation of the average duration of human hfe. A nation thus circumstanced will continue to accumulate a greater number of efficient lives. I may observe, by the way, how very important the question of the employment of children in factories becomes in connection with the period of life over which the efficiency of the labour of a population may be supposed to extend. There can be little doubt that the mortality amongst children is not quite so great as was formerly the case, when the means of preserving them by good nursing and medical skill were not so well understood. But in comparing the mor- tality of this part of the population, two errors are to be guarded against. All the births are not registered in the annual tables, even under the present more stringent system of police in this respect : this was even more the case formerly, as there is not the same domestic necessity for registering a birth as a death : the deaths, there- fore, in the first year, will have occurred out of more than the number of births returned, and the real proportionate mortality will have been less than the apparent one. This remark applies more strongly to the early registers of births and deaths ; as the system of registration is now so much more complete, we must make considerable DEATHS AT AN EARLY AGE. 49 allowance for the greater accuracy of nioclern returns in any comparative reasoning. Again, in reference to calculations from the ages at death alone, we must not overlook a possible error, if the births should have exceeded the deaths annually. The deaths, for instance, of children under one year of uge in England, were 74,210 out of a total number of 347,847 deaths in 1841. But it must not be inferred that 74,210 out of 347,847 children died in the first year, because out of 347,847 deaths, 74,210 were those of children under one year. Nothing would be more erroneous, since, as observed in the Re- gistrar General's Fifth Report, the deaths occurred out of a immber certainly not less, and probably more, than 512,000 ; for, although all the births are not registered, the births of 512,158 children were registered in 1841, and 502,303 in 1840. A reason has already been suggested for the great excess of mortality in the earlier ages of the Northampton Table, which represented that more than half the number born died during the first five years of life, while Duvillard's table does not give much more than tw^o fifths as the pro- portion. But even Duvillard, in considering the population as stationary, would liave assumed the number of deaths to be identical with tlie number of births, and would consequently have E 50 DECREASE OF MORTALITY. exaggerated the proportion of deaths at an early age. We have, however, trustworthy data to show that the rate of mortality has decreased in this country during the last 100 years. Thus, the population abstracts of England and Wales, ex- tending over a period from 1720 to 1820, furnish us with the average annual numbers of the bap- tisms and burials. Similar documents, collected at the respective censuses of 1801, 1811, and 1821, furnish the estimated population at the end of each decennial period, and the returned baptisms ; from which it appears that the re- turned baptisms, at those periods, bore very nearly a constant proportion to the estimated population. Hence, supposing the annual aver- age baptisms in each of the above periods to bear a given ratio to the respective population, and the returned burials to represent a similar constant proportion of the annual deaths, we should be enabled to measure mth sufficient ac- curacy the variation in the mortality. It thus appears, that out of the same amount of po- pulation, whatever may have been that which corresponded to 1000 baptisms, there died an- nually, 1068 between 1720 and 1730 1043 — 1730 - 1740 924 — 1740 — 1750 858 — 1750 — 1760 INCREASED DURATION OF LIFE. 51 840 between 1760 and 1770 857 — 1770 — 1780 787 — 1780 — 1790 747 — 1790 — 1800 697 — 1800 — 1805 659 — 1805 — 1810 612 — 1810 — 1815 623 — 1815 — 1820. Observations on Life Assurances. By G. D. (Unpublished.) There can be no doubt, therefore, that there has been a very great dhninution in the rate of mortality in England and Wales during the last 100 years ; and, as the observations which de- termined, that the ratio which the baptisms bore to the estimated population was 1 to 35 with a very slight fractional variation, were made at three different periods during the present century, we may rest satisfied that there can be no great error in the calculation from overlooking a possible increase in the proportion of baptisms by others than ministers of the Established Church. Although, therefore, we must make a con- siderable allowance for the increased proportion of young lives, which would somewhat diminish the average age of the whole community, yet the very great difference of mortality will warrant us in concluding from the above table, that the average duration of liuitian life in England and AVales has received a very decided augmenta- E 2 52 POPULATION OF FRANCE. tion, thouo-'h not to the full extent of the ratio of the diminished mortality. An analogous result has, without doubt, taken place in respect to the population of France. According to a calculation adopted by M. Necker in his work " De I'Administration des Finances," the mortality in France before the Revolution was 1 in 30 or 31i, which Mr. Malthus considered to be an extraordinarily large proportion, and that in so tine a climate as that of France, nothing but the very great misery of the lower classes could account for it. It is possible that this estimate may be rather too high, and may have been based chiefly upon the statistics of towns, from which more accurate returns could most probably be procured at that time than from tlie country, and the mortality in to^\ais, as is well known, far exceeds that amongst a rural population. The French census of 1831 gives the annual mortality of France from 1817 to 1831 as 1 in 42. The general fact, therefore, of a considerable decrease of mortality seems to be established, though we should not perhaps be justified in concluding that the difference in the two proportions just cited measures accurately the extent of it. In confirmation of the statement, that a di- minished rate of mortality, where a population is increasing in numbers, will necessarily be INCREASED PROPORTION OF ADULTS. 53 attended ^vith an augmentation in the proportion of efficient lives, the following results may be aptly cited. From a table in the appendix to the Supple- mentary Sanatory Report of 1843, by Mr. Chad- wick, it appears that the increase in the propor- tion of the adult population of the United King- dom is very considerable in regard to England and Scotland, though comparatively slight in regard to Ireland. Scotland. 41-01 53.^1 per cent. 1821. Under 15 years Above 15 years 1841. Under 15 years Above 15 years England. 39-09 60-91 36-07 63-93 Ireland. 41-06 58-94 40-44 59-56 36-41 63-6 J per cent. There is thus an increase of 3 per cent, in the proportion of adults in England, and 4 per cent, in Scotland, and only 1 per cent, in Ireland, within an interval of 20 years. I should be dis- posed to think that the emigration of adults from Ireland may account for the great difference which the Irish returns exhibit. E 3 54 VIE MOYENNE. LECTURE III. I HAVE already alluded to the ambiguous mean- ing of the term " expectation of life," or Vie moyenne, that it is employed to designate two very different results : the one arrived at from a calculation of " the mean age at death;" the other based upon the enumeration of the ages of the living. In illustration of the distinct cha- racter of these two results, I will quote a few facts from the Registrar General's Report, which refer to three different portions of the population of this country; namely, that of Surrey (extra- metropolitan), the metropohs itself, and the town of Liverpool. " Surrey presents a specimen of the rate at which life wastes in a country dis- trict ; Liverpool is an example, at the other ex- treme, of the effects of concentration in towns, without any adequate provision for removing the effluvia, and for securing by art the degree of purity in the dwellings and atmosphere, which is partially maintained by nature in an open cultivated country. Surrey, however, has not been selected as the healthiest county, and there are parts of most tOAvns in England as favourable to life as Liverpool. VARIATION IN RATE OF MORTALITY. 55 "The population of the extra-metropolitan parts of Surrey happens to be but little more than the population of Liverpool: yet in 1841 the deaths in Surrey were 4256 ; the deaths in Liverpool, 7556 ; out of 14,450 boys under five years of age, 2087 died in Liverpool ; of 14,045 boys in Sur- rey, only 699 died within the same time. By this immense mortality in Liverpool, the number of males at the age of 10 — 15 is reduced much below the number in Surrey at a corresponding age. The living in Surrey aged 20 — 30 are 18,746, but the influx of immigrants into Liver- pool raised the number of males living there at that age to 23,494, who are, however, rapidly cut down by sickness or death, (unless other acci- dental circumstances cause them to remove else- where) ; so that at the age of 45 — 55, only 7504 males were enumerated in Liverpool, whilst 9281 were living in Surrey." As far indeed as such local facts are concerned, I should conceive that the inferences which might be drawn from the mortality of the young, would be far safer than those which might be gathered from the longevity of the old. For one disturb- ing cause will operate inversely on the respective populations of two districts, so differently circum- stanced as Surrey and Liverpool, as individuals advance in life. The desire to exchange the close atmosphere and confined limits of a town E 4 56 PROBABLE DURATION OF LIFE. for the fresher air and freer range of the country, since such a desire may be more readily gratified as life advances, througli the increased means which a career of successful industry frequently affords, as it will tend to empty Liverpool of a portion of its population above a certain age, so it will be likely to add to the numbers of those who will be found living in Surrey at a corre- sponding age. This fact must not be overlooked in any inquiry connected with the comparative healthiness of two districts, as gathered from such data. According, then, to the Surrey observations, 75 out of 100 children born attain the age of 10, 52 reach the age of 50, and 28 that of 70 : in the metropolis 64 live to 10, 41 to 50, and 16 to 70: in Liverpool 48 attain the age of 10, 25 that of 50, and 8 that of 70. The probable duration of life, the vie probable of the French, differs from the expectation of life arrived at by either of the methods already alluded to. This expression designates the time in which the number born is reduced one half. In the English life table of 1841 it is 45 J years. " It is probable, or, to use Halley's words, it is an even wager, that a child born in England will live 45^ years, for a given number of children born are reduced to nearly half their number at the age of 45. So that there is an equal num- MEAN DURATION OF LIFE. 57 ber of chances in favour of an individual living to, or dying before, the age of 45ig." We have in the previous lecture seen that the mean duration of life is about 41 years according to the English life table. This is less than the probable life, from this circumstance, that the number of those who die in the first year of life exceeds so much the number of those who live after the 90tli. As, therefore, an increased diminution of the mean duration as compared with the probable duration of life indicates a relative increase in the proportion of infants dying in the first year to adults living after 90, this fact may be due either to an absolute increase in the mortality amongst infants, or to an absolute decrease in the number of very old people. "• " The probable duration of life in Surrey is 53 years, in the metropolis 40, in Liverpool 7 or 8 years. The mean duration of life does not differ so enormously ; it is, however, 45 years in Surrey, 37 years in the metropolis, and only 26 years in Liverpool." According to the same authority, the Registrar General's Fifth Report, the mean age at death in Surrey is 34 years, in the metropolis 29 years, the same as the average mean age at death in England, whilst from a table in the First Report of the Health of Towns Commission, it appears that 1 7 is the mean age at death in Liverpool. Tliere A\ill therefore be 58 REGISTRAR GENERAL' S REPORT, a variation in the expectation of life, according as the life tables are calculated upon the mean age at death, or upon the mean age of the living, of not less than 1 1 years in the case of Surrey, 8 years in that of the metropolis, and 9 years in that of Liverpool. " The rate of increase, the duration of the increase of population, the emigration, the rela- tive numbers of children and adults, the mean age of the living, upon all which the mean age at death depends, differ in town and country, in manufacturing and agricultural districts, to an extent which renders any application of this method to the construction of local life tables, or to the calculation of the relative durations of life, difficult and doubtful, if the proper cor- rections be made ; absurd and misleading, if the mean age at death be taken to represent the ex- pectation of life." I have borrowed largely from the Registrar General's Fifth Report, as we are entitled to place more confidence in it than in the works of individual writers on the duration of life, which may have been written not unfrequently with a strong bias, and in many cases with a special object. The Sixth Report, which has been published in the present year, contains some very valuable official returns respecting the popula- tion ot foreign countries. VITALITY OF DIFFERENT CLASSES. 59 Calculations based upon the mean age at death may likewise, in comparative estimates of tlie vitality of different classes of persons^ lead to very erroneous results. For instance, it has been urged as a proof of the severe hardships to which dress-makers are exposed, that the mean age at death of this class is very low, and therefore the nature of their employment must tend to shorten life. But Mr. Grainger in his Report states that " the majority of dress-makers are between the ages of sixteen and twenty-six, and it is un- derstood, if they die after they marry, they are not often designated by that title in the Register of Burials." This source of error in the registra- tion, coupled with the increase of population, will be found to affect the estimate of the in- jEluence of other occupations: and though there can be no doubt that, in this as in many other cases, the lives of individuals are much shortened by the mistreatment to which they are exposed, yet false arguments may injure instead of aiding their cause. On the other hand, very considerable exagger- ation may take place in respect to other classes. In a thriving commercial country, for instance, like England, where there is a continual move- ment amidst the social ranks, where it probably happens that fewer individuals in proportion to the mass retain their original position in society 60 INDEPENDENT GENTRY. during life, than in any other European country, we shall find the class of " independent gentry," or "persons in easy circumstances," on the one hand, and that of " paupers " on the other, ap- parently extremely long-lived, if we look to the mean age at death of persons so described in the Registers of Burial. It is true that every Whittington does not become Lord Mayor of London, but shop-boys in time grow up into aldermen, and tradesmen retire into the ranks of independent gentry. These promotions, how- ever, as a general rule, require time, and those persons only, who live long, attain the higher positions. It would be an error to invert the reasoning, and to suppose that they live long be- cause they attain the higher positions. A relax- ation of labour may doubtless contribute in certain cases to the prolongation of life ; but in many instances the abandonment of their or- dinary occupations, upon which the habits of a long life have been formed, would be found rather to diminish than increase the chances of longevity. The reverse of the picture shows us many individuals, who have not succeeded in their plans of life, compelled to seek an asylum at an advanced age in the workhouse of the parish, and these are rarely designated in the mortuary registers by the occupations which they have followed in manhood, but are classed MORTALITY AMONGST TAUPERS. () 1 under the general head of " paupers." '• The ages of those who die in the ranks of their resj^ec- tive trades and occupations are thus reduced to the same extent as the age of paupers who die in the workhouses is raised above the averajje. Thus, in 1841, the mean age of 45,508 persons who died in London was 29 years, and the mor- tality was 1 in 40. In the same year 4284 persons died in the London workhouses at the advanced (average) age of 49 years, which they must nearly have attained before they entered them, inasmuch as the mortality there appears to have been about 22 per cent, annually ; since at the time when the census was taken, in June 1841, the pauper population in the London '\\'ork- houses was 19,412, and it is supposed to be greater in winter." If we were thus to contrast 49, " the mean age at death " of the paupers in the workhouses, with other statements which make the mean age at deatJi of the same or a superior class of persons to be 16 or 20 years, we should be liable to arrive at very erroneous conclusions. Again, it has been declared by a distinguished French academician, that the mortality amongst the French military in time of peace is greater than amongst civilians. This difference may partly be traced to the circumstance that the conscription collects a number of vouths from 62 MORTALITY AMONGST SOLDIERS. the country and the villages, and exposes them to the greater temptations which large towns aiford, at a very critical period of their lives. The greater mortality, however, amongst sol- diers is for the most part but an apparent result, and is but a particular form in which the general fact displays itself of the rate of mortality re- ceiving a sudden increment about the age of military service. M. Demonferrand has observed that the general rate of mortality decreases from the first year to the fourteenth, after which it increases again gradually to the eighteenth, from which year up to the twenty-fifth it receives a much more rapid augmentation, when it again begins to diminish up to the forty-first. Thus, out of 10,000 youths who reached the age of eighteen, he found that not more than 8885 attained their thirtieth year : but if the rate of mortality ^had not augmented in a greater ratio than during the preceding four years, there would have been 91 74 survivors. The general increased mortality of this period, therefore, alone entailed a loss of 289 out of every 10,000 lives. The mortality, therefore, amongst 10,000 soldiers, when com- pared with that amongst 10,000 of the inhabit- ants at large irrespectively of their age, would inevitably be greater from this circumstance alone. In instituting a comparison, in the previous TABLE OF DEPARCIEUX. 63 Lecture, between the expectation of life, which is given in the most carefully constructed modern life tables both in England and in France, and that which is exhibited in Dr. Price's Northampton Tables on the one hand, and in Duvillard's Tables on the other, I selected Dr. Price's Tables as the oldest English life tables, and Duvillard's as the only French life tables, in which the general law of mortality at about the same period was professed to be represented. There are, how- ever, other tables in both countries, constructed upon very different data, and in which the re- sults are very much more favourable to vi- tality : I allude to the Carlisle Tables, and the Tables of M. Deparcieux. The latter writer published in 1746 an Essay " Sur les Proba- bilites de la Duree de la Vie humaine," accom- panied by six tables of mortality. The observa- tions upon which the first table was constructed, had been made on the nominees of two Tontines in France, created in 1689 and 1696 respec- tively. The use of the term Tontine, so well knoAvn to the generation of the past century, is now almost confined to history, and as its mean- ing may not be familiar, its origin may deserve a'brief explanation. Early in the reign of Louis XIV. of France, soon after he had attained his majority, and recalled Cardinal Mazarin as Prime Minister to his councils, and appointed 64 TONTINES. Fouquet " Suriiitendaiit des Finances," an Ita- lian of the name of Tonti suggested a method of raising a state-loan by an association of life- annuitants on these terms : — that the surplus dividends accruing on the deaths of individual annuitants should be distributed amongst the o surviving subscribers, until the whole body should become extinct. Mazarin's administra- tion was but a series of financial expedients, so that such a proposal found a ready welcome, and for some time this method of raising money for public works, or the necessities of the go- vernment, was successful. But as this system involved a speculation on the part of each indi- vidual against his neighbour's life, and the self- love of man, even in this respect, could not but lead him to undervalue his neighbour's chance of living as compared with his own, and the supposed laws of mortality, upon which the calculations were based, were occasionally far from correct, the nominees in some cases became discontented with the unreasonable longevity of their fellow sub- scribers. Thus, in regard to the three Irish Tontines in our own country, which were created in the years 1773, 1775, and 1778, assertions that nominees were sometimes fraudulently peV- sonated after their death, and their dividends un warrantably drawn for a series of years, so far prevailed at the beginning of tlie present cen- GREATER LONGEVITY OF FEMALES. 65 tury, that a select Parliamentary Committee was appointed to inquire into the fuct, and the result was a report that the mortaUty had not been so rapid as the calculations of Dr. Price had led the subscribers to expect. Mr. Finlaison, the actuary of the National Debt, in his Report on the law of mortality of the Government Life Annuitants, states that there is abundant evi- dence in the subsequent observations, that the subscribers did not die off so fast as Dr. Price had predicted. Four of the remaining tables of Deparcieux were founded on the observations of the mor- tality amongst monks of different orders in France, and the fifth represented the mortality amongst the nuns of several convents in Paris from 1685 to 1745. These were amongst the earhest tables of mortality constructed for the two sexes separately, and by them the greater longevity of the female sex was made evident, — a fact already noticed by M. Kerseboom, in his Essay, in the Dutch language, " On the probable Number of Persons in Holland and AYest Fries- land," published in 1738, of which a notice by Mr. Fames may be found in the Philosophical Transactions for that year. They could, how- ever, be of comparatively little value in deter- mining the general law of mortality, from the peculiar habits of life of the indi\iduals, as it F 66 DEFECTIVE DATA OF TONTINES. appeared that the mortality amongst these classes was below the average under 50 years of age ; but after that time, above the average, and considerably so in the case of the nuns. De- parcieux, therefore, calculated his life table from the mortality amongst the Tontinists. But in both series of observations, he had no data be- yond the age of those who died. " He had not even the advantage of personal access to the original record of the two Tontines, but compiled his facts from the file of flying sheets, which, in the case of all Tontines, used to be published periodically, to announce the deaths of nominees. But in no case whatever did he receive informa- tion either of the sex, or even of the age of the nominee, either at entry or at death, or at sur- viving, because the Tontinists were in classes, persons from 5 to 10 being in one class, from 10 to 15 in another, and so on, without any men- tion of the particular number enrolled or dying at each or every age." M. Finlaison considers that such imperfect data could hardly furnish a sufficient approximation to the truth, although the facts were very numerous ; and in computing an observation on the two Tontines separately, he found that the rate of mortality after forty years in one was very different from that in the other. One strong theoretical objection against the life PICKED LIVES. 67 table of Deparcieux will readily suggest itself, that as the observations on which it was founded were made from picked lives, they can hardly be supposed to represent the general law of mor- tality. Mr. Finlaison, on the other hand, at the conclusion of his Report, after a very extensive ex- amination of not fewer than twenty- two sets of ob- servations, gives his opinion, though he carefully limits himself to a mere opinion, " that there is very little, if any, advantage at all, in favour of selection," and that picked and chosen lives (such as are presented to insurance offices) are not superior in longevity to the rest of the same rank in society, from among whom they are so chosen. If, however, we admit that the table of Deparcieux represents a select mortality which was most probably rather below the general mortality in France in the middle of the last century, the result of a comparison of the re- spective expectations of life given by it, and by M. Demonf errand's life table of 1837, is in favour of an increased vitality amongst the French popu- lation, for its conclusions accord with those Avliich are supplied in the present day by a table for those departments of France where the mortality is most rapid, in which the rate is raised above the average by the returns from Paris and the other great towns. The l^^nglish life tables, Avhicli exliibit results F 2 68 CARLISLE TABLES. most closely corresponding to those at which Deparcieux had arrived, are the Carlisle Tables, published in 1815 by Mr. Milne in his " Treatise on Annuities." They were at that time the only life tables, applicable to the mass of the people, which had been formed from the necessary data, namely, the enumerations of the living from amongst whom the deaths occurred at every age, excepting those of Sweden and Finland, already alluded to, as compiled by M. Wargentin in 1755, from which countries a subsequent series of returns was published by M. Nicander in 1801. Dr. Hey sham of Carlisle had kept an accurate reg^ister of the births and of the deaths at all ages during a period of nine years, from 1779 to 1787, in the two parishes which com- prehend Carlisle and its environs, and had dis- tinguished the sexes. During the same interval, two enumerations of the population of these two parishes had been made in 1780 and 1787 re- spectively, in both of which the ages were dis- tinguished, and the sums total of both sexes. The tables constructed from these data, as may readily be supposed, afford a far higher expecta- tion of life than the Northampton Tables ; and though the observations were only carried on during so short a space of time as nine years, yet this circumstance is of less importance, as during the twenty -two years commencing with 1779, as AUGMENTED DURATION OF LIFE. 69 Mr. Milne lias shown, the proportion of the annual average number of deaths to the mean number of the people, was the same as in the first nine years, namely, 1 in 40. The expecta- tion of life at birth, which the Carhsle tables ex- hibit, is rather more than 88 years. Whether, therefore, we contrast the mean duration of life, or the rate of mortality, as furnished by these tables, with those which the last observations in England and Wales afford, in either case we find an evident improvement ; the expectation of life at birth being at present rather more than 41 years, and the rate of mortality 1 in 46. When the mean duration of life is said to be augmented, it must not be supposed to imply that the term of human existence is in any way extended, but merely that a greater number of individuals attain a mature age — for instance, the age of 45 — 55. 70 NATIONAL LIFE TABLE. LECTURE IV. The most important object to which a National Life Table can be applied, is without doubt the determination of problems connected with the efficient state of the population, such as the pro- portion of males capable of bearing arms, the numbers whose labour is available for different branches of industry, and the proportion of in- fants and old people for whose support the labour of the efficient portion of the population must be taxed. The secondary use to which they have been applied, and which in reahty led to the study of such contingencies, was the determina- tion of the value of life annuities, pensions, and other financial transactions. It was for this latter purpose that Halley may be said to have invented the form of the life table in 1693, when he presented to the Royal Society of Lon- don an " Estimate of the mortality of mankind drawn from various tables of the births and funerals in the city of Breslau, with an attempt to ascertain the prices of annuities upon lives." — (Philosophical Transactions Abridged, vol. iii. p. 510.) CALCULATION OF LIFE TABLES. 71 Halley selected the bills of mortality of the city of Breslau as furnishing the least objection- able data, for the calculation of a life table, be- cause " the births exceeded a little the funerals, and the confluence of strangers was but small ;" and although he was well aware that he wanted the number of the whole people to ensure the necessary accuracy in his calculation, yet he con- sidered it to give a more just idea of the state and condition of mankind than any thing then extant. Amongst the manifold uses of it which he pointed out, was that it " showed the chances of mortality at all ages, and likewise how to make a certain estimate of the value of annuities for lives, which had previously been effected by an imaginary valuation." The form in which a life table on Halley's principle is constructed may be very briefly stated. If 100,000 persons be the assumed number born alive, which is termed the base or radix of the table, the relative num- bers living in each consecutive year till the whole number is exhausted must be ascertained. Thus the age at which the table terminates will vary with different observations. In the English life table of 1841, the last survivor of a given 100,000 lives did not expire till the 105th year. Upon adding up the column of the relative nuin bers living, in the English life table for example, the sum of their lives amounts to 4,1G5,890 F 4 72 LIFE ANNUITIES. years. From this sum half the number of lives during the first year must be subtracted, as half on the average are born during the last six months of it. The remainder 4,115,890 will give us the whole number of years over which the 100,000 lives have extended. If then this sum be divided by 100,000, the quotient will give us the mean duration of life, which in this case will be 41 "16 years for both sexes. For males, however, it is 40'19, for females 42*18. By repeating this process the mean duration of life at each year of age is obtained, and this may be properly termed the expectation of life. Two years before the publication of Halley's table an act of parliament " was passed for bor- rowing a million upon annuities for lives upon decidedly advantageous terms for the annuitants, but the subscription was not filled up. In the following year the deficiency Avas made good by borromng upon annuities for lives at 14 per cent., or at little more than seven years' purchase. In 1695, the persons who had purchased those annuities were allowed to exchanofe them for others of 96 years, upon paymg into the Ex- chequer 63/. in the hundred ; that is, the differ- ence between 14 per cent, for life, and 14 per cent, for 96 years was sold for 63/., or for 4 J years' purchase. Such was the supposed insta- bility of government, that even these terms pro- LONG ANNUITIES. 73 cured few purchasers." (Smith's Wealth of Na- tions, B. V. ch. 3.). Halley referring to this measure in his paper, read before the Royal Society, remarks that his calculation shows " the great advantage of put- ting money into the present fund lately granted to their Majesties, giving 14 per cent, per annum, or at the rate of seven years' purchase for a life, when young lives at the usual rate of interest are worth above 13 years' purchase." In the ignorance then prevailing as to the duration of life, annuities were granted at the same rate to persons of every age: and Halley pointed out the advantage of young lives over those more advanced in years, " a life of 10 years being almost worth 13^ years' purchase, whereas one of 36 is worth but 11." In a note appended to the Registrar General's Fifth Report, it is observed, that " in declining to convert their life annuities into long annuities of 96 years, the purchasers appear to have well understood their own interests. The instability of government would affect life annuities as much as long annuities. But the life annuity of seven years' purchase was much the best bargain for the purchaser : for the interest of money being 6 per cent., the life annuity was worth, at Halley's estimate, rather more than 13 years' purchase at the age of 10, and an ammity for 96 years was 74 INSURANCE OFFICES. worth only I63- years of purchase. The value therefore of a life annuity of 100^. was 1300?, which was obtained for 714/., and the new offer to the purchaser was that, if he would advance 450/. more, he should obtain an annuity worth 1660/. By accepting the offer he would have gained 496/. on 1164/., by rejecting it his profit was 586/. on 714/. The Chancellor of the Ex- chequer of that day (Sydney, Lord Godolphin) thus attempted to gain more money, whilst he recovered part of the sums which Halley's table showed had been thrown away in the previous transactions." The least important application of life tables in a national point of view, though the most im- portant perhaps to individuals from the daily in- creasing extent of the transactions, is the mer- cantile use of them in computing premiums for life assurances. The immediate object, however, of the cal- culation here is precisely the reverse of what is to be looked to in regard to annuitants. In this case the problem to be determined is, what are " the chances of death ? " in the case of an- nuitants it is, what are " the probabilities of liv- ing ? " If the population, indeed, were stationary, these questions would refer to the same fact ; for the " mean age at death," and the " mean duration of life," would on this supposition be DECEEMENTS OF LIFE. 75 identical ; but if the births exceed the deaths, and that very considerably, there will be a great discrepancy between the numbers which repre- sent these two results. I have already perhaps diverged too far from the proper province of economical inquiry, by entering into details which rather come under the department of the mathe- matician. I shall therefore content myself ^yit\\ stating, that it appears that the " expectation of life," with which the life insurer is concerned, may be very different from that, in which the political economist and statesman are interested. Thus, in France, according to the Annuaire du Bureau des Longitudes, there are assurance com- panies which employ the tables of Deparcieux where the rate of mortality is low, in calculating the value of annuities to be paid during the lives of the assured, and the tables of Duvillard where the rate of mortality is high, in the case of sums to be paid on the deaths of the assured. On the other hand, in England, the returns of certain life offices represent the decrements of life to be less than those given in the tables of De- parcieux, and during the earlier years to be even less than those given in the Carlisle Tables, whilst the experience of other offices has not warranted them in abandoning altogether the use of the Northampton Tables. It must not be forgotten that the experience 76 SPECIAL MORTALITY. of a life assurance office is based upon the num- ber of policies^ not on the number of lives^ on which those insurances were eiFected; whereas there are a great number of instances in every insurance office where several policies are taken out on one and the same life ; and also that the mortality with which each office is concerned must be a special mortality^ requiring a special experience to decide in what degree it differs from the general mortahty. For instance, it may be perfectly true that the mean duration of life in England has very sensibly increased, but it does not follow that the increase is distributed equally over all periods of hfe : it may, for example, be chiefly confined to the younger portion of the population. The experience, therefore, of an insurance office, where there is a greater proportion of pohcies on lives under 40, will furnish a different result from that where the majority are above 40 ; again, the University Life Office, owing to its connection with the clergy, may be expected, in all pro- babilit}^, to exhibit a larger list of septuagenarian insurers than the Law Life, if M. Caspar of Berlin, in his Contribution to Medical Statistics (Beitrage zur Medicinischen Statistik), be cor- rect in his observations, that out of 100 clergy 42 attain the age of 70 and more, whilst out of 100 advocates only 29 reach that age. It should IMrKOVED HABITS. 77 not be forgotten, however, that a clergyman almost always dies under the class of clergy ; whereas an advocate frequently abandons his profession, and is registered under the more in- discriminate head of gentry. ^^^lilst the rate of mortality amongst infants has almost everywhere decreased from various causes, amongst which a better method of nursing exercises a veiy decided effect, the mortality in maturer life has diminished chieflv from im- proved habits of cleanliness and temperance. The influence of manj of the positive checks to population most certainly diminishes, as men become less entirely the slaves of their passions and irregular impulses ; but there is a class of positive checks, which come into operation in the successive sta2;es of advancins: civilisation, such as result from the corruption of the at- mosphere of large towns from defective drainage, or the corruption of the air in dwelling-houses and work-rooms from bad ventilation, Avhich have hitherto been almost overlooked. The extent to which the longevity of a population is reduced by the ravages of such scourges has only of late been made known in England, through the labours of the Sanitary and Health of To^\iis Commissions, and the results appear to be of sufficient importance to warrant a distinct dis- 78 DEFECTIVE DRAINAGE. cnssion of them in the subsequent course of these lectures. Inquiries to the same effect have been carried on in France by M. Villerme, M. Benoiston de Chateauneuf, and others, in Belgium by M. Ducpetiaux and M. Quetelet, and the subject is very justly acquiring a national unportance, and in our o^wn country it is to be trusted that it will, before long, attract the attention of the legislature. It is a melancholy fact, in connection mth the growth of communities, that the health of the infant population of large towns should be liable to be insidiously undermined by the contaminated air which they breathe, not merely within the dwellings of their parents, but even in the streets ; but it is a still more melancholy fact, that the industrious father of a family, the strong and in- telligent operative, should be exposed to be smitten down by fever in a successful career of industry, from his ionorance of the disadvantao:eous cir- cumstances under which he applies himself to his labour. For it is not always the want of employment which is fatal to the operative classes ; it is sometimes the very employment itself, because that employment confines them during the whole day to close and ill- ventilated work-rooms. Thus at Paisley, in May, 1832, during a period when there was almost an entire DEFECTIVE VENTILATION. 79 cessation of work, and such universal distress, that the aid of Government was required to co- operate with private benevolence, the physicians of the Fever Hospital were surprised by a di- minution of at least one eighth in the average of fever cases as compared Avith the previous five years. When, however, a time of brisk employ- ment succeeded, and the whole population were again at work, a new epidemic broke out. In Manchester, a similar reduction of mortality was experienced in the years 1841 and 1842, which were years of great distress as contrasted Avith 1 840. It seems from a host of similar instances, which are collected in various Sanitary Reports, to be a well-ascertained fact, that the unfavour- able effect of a reduction in the supply of food and clothing to our manufacturing population during a period of non-employment, in inducing disease, is more than counterbalanced by the favourable eiFect of their absence from ill-venti- lated workshops, and the accompanying Avant of means to gratify costly and hurtful propen- sities, whereby the causes of disease are dimin- ished. The remedies for such evils as these, which are internal to dwelling-houses and workshops, come rather within the sphere perhaps of do- mestic than political economy, as they originate in defective private arrangements. But the evils which result from defective public arrangements, 80 SUPPLY OF WATER. external to tlie dwelling-houses of indhdduals, affect the community at large. Sanitary regu- lations in respect to them may reasonably come under the notice of the State. For it has been found that the neglect of suitable public arrange- ments in certain districts of our large towns in respect to drainage and the supply of water, has been attended with a moral and physical de- terioration of the inhabitants : that those dis- tricts are not only the seats of the most terrible diseases, but likewise the abode of the great criminals. " The worst place in the parish of Whitechapel is the place where the most dis- honest and profligate portion of the population lives." The Alsatia of modern Rome, for the Sovereign Pontiff still allows of asylums for criminals, (I speak from memory of what was the case in 1834,) is in one of the most unhealthy districts of that city ; and this circumstance was alleged to me as an excuse or apology for the system, that Fever within a very few years makes satisfaction to offended Justice. It may be the case ihat the great criminals of a town popu- lation are found in the most unhealthy districts, because' the better part of the inhabitants decline to occupy them ; still it has been observed that the neglect of decency and comfort which is un- avoidable, when the supply of water is inadequate for the pu^po^;es of cleansing and draining a MORAL EFFECTS OF BAD DRAINAGE. 81 district, has a debasing effect on the human mind. " There is a point of wretchedness which is incompatible with the existence of any respect for the peace or property of others, and to look in such a case for obedience to the laAVS where there is the slightest prospect of violating them with impunity, is to expect to reap where none has sown." It may not be out of place to ob- serve, that it has been found in town districts where the sewerage is bad, the supply of water deficient, and the means of preserving cleanhness altogether unattainable, that the inhabitants not merely " have not the bodily vigour and in- dustrious habits of a healthy and independent peasantry, but they have not the intelligence and spirit proper to such a race." One of the most melancholy proofs of this is, the quiet and unresisting manner in which they succumb to their lot, and it is the feeling of depression attendant on inhaling the atmospheric poison generated in the neglected districts of our large towns, which leads many to seek temporary relief either in stimulants, whose base is alcohol, or sedatives, into the composition of which opium enters in large proportions. To those who are familiar with the aspect of the population in a country district, where malaria prevails during the greater part of the year, such as Italy so frequently presents to the notice of the travel] er, 82 SAVAGE LIFE. this coincidence of mental apathy and physical listlessness will not be surprising. There is a popular mode of regarding the positive checks to population, whether they be those natural to savage life, such as war, pes- tilence, and famine, or those incidental to the various stages in the transition state of civilised communities, such as unhealthy occupations, the corruption of the air in towns, and various com- plicated forms of physical evil, that they form a terrible corrective under God's providence to an excess of numbers, or, in other words, to the pressure of population against the means of sub- sistence. The fearful efficacy of positive checks upon man, in a semi-barbarous condition, cannot indeed be denied. Whole tribes of American Indians have been extinguished by war, when the irruption of an enemy has desolated their cultivated lands, or driven them from their hunting grounds. Forced to seek refuge either in the forest or the mountain, without any portable stores, they have escaped the sword only to perish by famine. In Paraguay, on the other hand, notwithstanding the care and atten- tion of the Jesuits, smallpox and malignant fevers frequently desolated their otherwise flou- rishing missions, from the fact that few of the natives that were attacked ever recovered, owing to the unfavourable circumstances under CIVILISED COMMUNITIES. 83 which they were exposed to these scourges. On the west coast of America, Vancouver traversed 150 miles of coast and saw nothing but deserted villages, and the bones of the dead scattered about promiscuously in great numbers, as if pes- tilence and famine had exercised their united ravages. A people who depend for their food on the occupations of hunting and fishing, and who have probably little, if any, stores, are cut off from their supphes, when attacked by disease ; and famine in this case attends on the steps of pestilence, just as inversely in the case of an agricultural people pestilence frequently follows in the wake of famine. It would seem, however, from the observations of competent enquirers, that the excessive mor- tahty arising from the steady and continuous operation of the peculiar positive checks to Avhich civiUsed communities are exposed, does not so much diminish the numbers of a population as cause it to deteriorate in physical and moral character. Experience has almost invariably shoAvn, that when the increased action of a posi- tive check does not simultaneously reduce the general productive power of a community, and so affect its means of providing subsistence, tlie increased mortality will indirectly stimulate the rate of increase by removing the pressure upon the spring of population. In the Fifth Report of G 2 84 PROPORTION OF BIRTHS the Registrar-General, p. 234., we have a table of the average rate of deaths and burials in the metropolis during the year 1841 ; from which it appears, that whilst in the healthiest sub-districts there was 1 death in 56, and 1 birth in 42, in the unhealthiest sub-districts there was 1 death in 33, and 1 birth in 28 ; whilst the mortality was 66 per cent, higher in the unhealthy than in the healthy districts, the proportion of births was 51 per cent, higher. Again, from a table of the average number of marriages, births, and deaths in different large divisions of England and Wales, it appears that in Lancashire and Cheshire, where the mortality is raised 44 per cent., the marriages and births are raised 21 per cent. ; whilst a comparison of the five most un- healthy and the five most healthy divisions exhibits the same fluctuation, though to a less remarkable extent. Thus the marriages and births are 12 per cent, higher in the five divisions, where the mortality is raised 15 per cent. ; and the excess of 12 per cent, in the births furnishes a number of births more than equal to the num- ber of deaths. To the same effect in France, M. Bossi, in his Statistique du Department de TAin, from documents during the years 1802-4, furnishes this result as to different localities. In healthy mountainous districts, where there was 1 death in 38, omitting fractions, there was INCREASES WITH MORTALITY. 85 1 marriage in 179, and 1 birth in 34 ; whilst in unhealthy, marshy districts, where there was 1 death in 20, there was 1 marriage in 107, and 1 birth in 26. M. Quetelet, in his essay Sur I'Homme et le Developpement de ses Facultes, supplies a comparison between the great capitals of Europe to the same purport. Thus, whilst in London there was 1 death in 46, there was 1 birth in 40 ; in Paris, 1 death in 31, 1 birth in 27 ; in Vienna, 1 death in 22, 1 birth in 20. The preventive check, therefore, seems to be invariably relaxed with an increased intensity of the positive check. One obvious reason for this is suggested by Dr. Griffin in his Report on the Sanitary Condition of the City of Limerick, where the births average about five to a mar- riage, and furnish even a greater proportion in the worst conditioned districts. " I find that as the poor nurse their own children, there is in general an interval of about two years between the birth of one child and that of the next ; but if the child dies early on the breast, this interval will be much shorter ; and if this occurs often, there will be a certain number born as it icere for the purpose of dying ; and these being soon replaced, the same numbers may still be pre- served, as if there had been few or no deaths, or only the ordinary number." The increased fecundity of the parent will inevitably in this G 3 86 CITY OF GENEVA. case be attended with diminished strength in the offspring, from the interval between each birth being reduced. On the other hand, it has been observed, that where the influence of positive checks has di- minished, the operation of preventive checks is proportionately increased. There does not seem to be any invariable rule as to the relation of these two results to each other, in the way of cause and efi'ect. Thus much, however, is cer- tain, that they act and react upon each other ; and in whichever direction the impulse may first be given, their mutual connection is soon per- ceptible. One of the best illustrations of this very important fact is furnished from the Records of the City of Geneva, where registers of the deaths, with some occasional gaps before 1616, have been kept with the greatest care ever since the year 1549, and of the marriages and births in addition, since the year 1693. M. Edouard Mallet, in his " Recherches Historiques sur la Population de Geneve, pendant 1549 — 1833," published in 1837 in the " Annales d' Hygiene, vol. xvii., has given a series of tabular results, which, from the long period of time over which the observations extend, and the more than ordinary accuracy with which they have been made, merit a careful examination. FECUNDITY OF MAKKIAGES. 87 IJcaths. Births. Marriages. pytjo „f Years. ropulation. mean. 1 in mean. 1 in mean. 1 in marriage. 1695 — 1710 17,700 623 28 646 27 132 134 4-88 1711—1730 20,000 635 31 667 .30 171 117 3-90 1731—1750 21,500 649 33 677 31 186 115 3-63 1751—1770 23,500 691 34 781 30 213\ 1771—1790 25,000 741 34 756 33 211 J ^ It results from this table, that during each successive period, there has been an augmenta- tion in the total number of the population, a diminution in the proportion of deaths as com- pared with the population, a corresponding diminution in the proportion of births, and an augmentation in the proportion of marriages, coupled with a decrease in the ratio of births to a marriage. The fecundity of marriages has diminished one fourtli during the eighteenth century. An analogous result, though not to the same extent, has been observed in Paris from 1700 to 1790. M. Mallet's own researches during a more recent period, confirm the ten- dencies above exemplified. Ratio of Deaths, Births, Marriages, births to Years. Population. 1 in I in 1 in marriages. 1805—1812 23,250 37 40 161 3-34 1814—1833 27,177 46-92 46-86 141 2-86 It is not unimportant to observe, that, during the last ten years of this period, the number of di- vorces had diminished one fourth, as this circum- stance might considerably afiect the proportion of marriages. It should always be kept in mind thiit the fecundity of marriages may represent a very G 4 88 FECUNDITY OF THE i'OrULATION. different result from the fecundity of the popula- tion. The fecundity of marriages, for instance, may decrease in a country where the mortality is great, owing to the increased proportion of marriages for the second or third time ; yet the fecundity of the population itseK may increase. Mr. Malthus, in his chapter on the Fruitfulness of Marriages, observes, that, with a given rate of increase, "it is clearly desirable to find in the registers a small rather than a large proportion of births to marriages, because the smaller this proportion is, the greater must be the proportion of the born which live to marry, and of course the more healthy must be the country." The same records of the city of Geneva ex- hibit most satisfactory evidence of the increase both in the probable and the mean duration of life of the population during the last four cen- turies, as the following tables will show, which have been carefully examined and corrected, where necessary, by M. Mallet : — From M. Cramer's observations : — Probable life. Mean life. Years. 1560—1600 1601—1700 1701—1760 yrs. in. d. 8 7 26 13 3 16 27 8 17 yrs. m. d. 21 2 20 25 8 2 32 9 24 From M. Odier's 3 observations in continuation of M. Cramer's : — - Years. 1761—1800 1801—1813 yrs. m. d. 32 4 40 8 yrs. m. d. 33 7 38 6 INCREASED DURATION OF LIFE. 89 From M. Mallet's own observations : — Years. yrs. m. d. yrs. m. d. 1814—1823 45 10 171 mean. 40 11 21 mean. 1823—1833 44 6 6J 45 29 40 5 22 J 40 8 7 The excess of the probable life at present above the mean life, is a proof of the very great diminution of mortality amongst the young. With improved medical skill and greater care, the probable may be expected to exceed the mean duration of life ; for though the feeble may be preserved to reach an adult state, they will, no doubt, die sooner than the strong. M. Mallet, in discussing the probable causes of the diminished mortality amongst infants, states some facts in support of the beneficial eiFect of vaccination, which are worthy of attention. Mr. Finlaison, in his " Report on the Law of Mor- tality " amongst the government annuitants, seems to consider that the value of Dr. Jenner's discovery consists, not so much in the number of lives absolutely saved, as in the number pre- served from comparative discomfort; and that the ravages of the smallpox before the intro- duction of vaccination have been over-estimated. " Variolous inoculation," he says, " was little known in general practice before the year 1750 ; and most people are aware that it never was uni- versal, even among the more enlightened classes, from the natural aversion of parents to superin- 90 SMALLPOX. duce voluntarily a loathsome disease, which the child very probably might escaj)e altogether. Now it is an unquestionable fact that there is no perceptible difference at all in the mortality of children from the age of 3 to the age of 20 in the sixty years preceding 1805 ; that from the age of 3 to 12 the mortality regularly diminishes from about 12 in 1000 to 6, 5, and 4 in 1000; and from adolescence to maturity it rises again. Considering, therefore, the innumerable ailments to which children are liable, besides that of the smallpox, it is not in my power to believe that the smallpox in that period was so fatal a scourge as it is supposed to have been, unless indeed its whole severity feU upon infants under three years of age, and on the children of the poorer classes exclusively : because, Avith very great deference to better judges, I am unable to conceive a lower rate of mortality than 4 or 5 per annum in 1000, which was the case when the smallpox had full sway." On the other hand, M. Mallet's researches during the four last centuries tend to show that whilst the mortality between the ages of 10 and 60 gradually decreases in each century, owing as he conceives to a gradual improvement in the domestic and social habits of life, accompanied with better food and clothing, more airy dwell- ings, and better medical and hygienic regula- EFFECTS OF VACCINATION. 91 tions, the mortality under ten years has decreased in a rapidly accelerated ratio during the present century since Dr. Jenncr's discovery : — ge- XVI cent. XVII. XVUI. XIX. 1 25-92 23-72 20-12 15-12 2 8-40 6-99 4-85 4-34 3 4-67 5-05 3-55 2-32 4—5 5-36 5-24 4-64 2-62 6—10 7-59 6-60 5-75 3-63 If we admit the conclusion at which Duvillard, in his investigations " Sur I'lnfluence de la Petite Verole," arrived, that 25 out of 26 cases of small- pox occurred amongst children between the ages of three and ten, to represent the general law, it will be seen from the above table, which forms a portion of a more complete one inserted in M. Mallet's memoir, that whilst the mortality be- tween those ages decreased only one third from the 16th to the 18th centuries, it has diminished at a remarkably accelerated rate during the pre- sent century. The experience, indeed, of several physicians in particular localities has given some countenance to the idea, that the reduction of the mortality by smallpox is more than coun- terbalanced by the contemporaneous increase of deaths amongst children from other diseases, (Dr. Robert Watt's Observations on the Mor- tahty amongst Children at Glasgow during 1703 — 1812, in his Treatise on Chincough, 1813,) and that the smallpox itself may have bceji tlie 92 PRESERVATION OF INFANT LIFE. development of some evil principle in a parti- cular form, which, when opposed and put down in that form, exhibits itself in a state of in- creased activity in some other. What may be the proper scientific solution of this question, and whether or not medical science can do more than merely modify the form in which the fatal result shows itself, must be answered by those to whose province such discussions more pecu- liarly belong. This fact, at least, the registers of Geneva satisfactorily prove, that the causes prejudicial to human life, particularly in the early years, are not necessarily of a permanent character, and that their operation is capable of being very materially checked. The general result, which the miniature picture of a state at Geneva presents in such a clear and definite outline, is that with an augmentation of material prosperity, and a diminution of mor- tality, marriages have come to be contracted with more prudence, and at a later period of life ; so that, though the proportion of marriages has increased, the proportions of births to the population as well as to the actual marriages has been reduced ; but at the same time a greater number of infants born have been preserved ; both of which circumstances may be attributed in a certain degree to the revival of the custom of mothers nursing their o^vn children. In ad- PRESSURE OF PuriJLATlON ON SUBSISTENCE. 93 clition, the proportion of the population that has attained an ethcient state of vigorous manhood has been augmented. To a similar effect the statistical returns both of this country and of France show, that with a diminished mortality and an absolute increase of numbers in conse- quence, the rate of increase in proportion to the numbers is diminished. It may happen either that the positive checks have slackened in inten- sity, because there is less opportunity for them in consequence of the more prudent habits of the community ; or, on the other hand, the pre- ventive checks have come into greater operation, by occasion of the positive checks being miti- gated. That the preventive checks should alto- gether supersede the positive checks ; in other words, that men should refrain from marriage until they are able to provide reasonable support for their offspring, is perhaps not to be expected in any community ; nor am I disposed to think it would be altogether a desirable result. A great nation must always be capable of making extraordinary exertions, when suddenly called upon to do so, and therefore must possess some reserved store of unemployed labour capable of being called into activity on such emergencies. Again; it is the steady pressure of population against subsistence which stimulates the wit of man to new discoveries, which suggests the en- 94 UTOPIAN COMMUNITY. terprize and enforces the necessity of perseverance in its execution. The imaginary community of the Utopians has been represented by Sir T. More to have found " their time set off for labour more than sufficient for supplying them with plenty of all things ; " but we are at liberty to suppose them to have had very few wants, and most assuredly an existing community, if there were any, so circumstanced, would as a state be but little removed above actual barbarism. The discovery of an artificial want is the first step to exertion, and without exer- tion in the individual there can be no progress for the nation. If the law of our existence here were to be reduced in this respect to the standard of the Utopians, society would sink into a state of selfish apathy and languor. As long, however, as the instincts of human nature remain unchanged, our race will be continually subject from the law of its increase to the ravages of positive checks ; but the intensity of them will diminish with every onward step in civilisation. It is true, that new and highly artificial checks come into play in the successive stages of the growth of communities. Their influence, however, need be only temporary. In the vegetable kingdom the antidote is almost invariably found not far remote from the poisonous plant. In a similar manner, if ever the new and improved combina- EEMEDIES WITHIN REACH. 95 tions of power and industry, which the reason of man devises, are found to exercise in their imme- diate and accidental results a prejudicial effect upon human life, we may be assured that the same reason is gifted with the capacity of analysing these destructive influences, and of discovering by the side of the causes of increased mortality the means of controlling their operation within due limits. A P P E N D J X. Page 5. On the Total Average Produce of Grain in England and Wales. It is much to be regretted that there are no means of accurately ascertaining the extent of land in England and Wales under grain crops. Mr. Couling, in an esti- mate laid before the Emigration Committee, supposed the arable land and gardens to amount to 11,143,370 acres. Arthur Young, in his " Eastern Tour," estimated the extent of land under crop in England, exclusive of Wales, at 12,707,000 acres, which Mr. M'Culloch justly conceives to have been too high an estimate, as 1,200,000 acres must be added for fallows. Dr. Bcekc, in 1800, arrived at a conclusion very similar to Mr. Couling's. Mr. Stevenson, in 1812, estimated the arable land at 11,500,000 acres; and Mr. Middleton, in his « Survey of Middlesex," supposed the tillage land to amount to 1 2,000,000 acres. Mr. Comber, in his Appendix to hia work " On National Subsistence," calculated the total acres under cultivation in England and Wales to amount, in 1812, to 1 1,591,000. Mr. M'CuUoch, therefore, can- not be very far from the mark in estimating the total quantity of land under cultivation to be at present 12,000,000 acres. The dlstriliution of crops he con- ceives to be as follows : — H 98 APPENDIX. Acres. Wheat - . _ 3,800,000 Barley and rye - - 900,000 Oats and beans - - 3,000,000 Clover - - - 1,300,000 Roots, turnips, and potatoes - 1,200,000 Hops, gardens, &c. - - 150,000 Fallow - - - 1,650,000 Total - 12,000,000 It is upon this estimate of the quantity of land under tillage, that he proceeds to calculate the total average produce of grain, as follows. It appeared from a Report published by the Board of Agriculture, that the produce of wheat throughout England and Wales was taken, be- fore 1837, at an average of from 2| to 3 quarters (Win- chester measure) per acre, barley at 4 quarters, oats at 4^. Mr. M'Culloch, however, writing in 1837, felt himself warranted in reckoning the average produce of wheat at 3^ quarters per acre, in consequence of the great improvement in its cultivation by the introduction of bone and other artificial manures. On this sup- position he gives the following result : — Produce. Total Produce. Crops. Acres. Qrs. per Acre. Qrs. Wlaeat - - 3,800,000 H 12,350,000 Barley and rye - 900,000 4 3,600,000 Oats and beans - 3,000,000 u 13,500,000 29,450,000 The improvements which have since been carried on in the culture of wheat will probably have raised the amount of the wheat crops very considerably : on the APPENDIX. 99 other hand, I am led to sui)pose, from very good autho- rity, that the extension of raih'oads has exercised a very marked influence in reducing the quantity of spring- crops. It would be very much to be desired that an annual return should be obtained of the quantity of acres under each description of crop, as well as of the average yield at the conclusion of the harvest, and, in the case of the wheat crop, of the average weight of the bushel of wheat. I am indebted to Mr. Henry Dixon, the emi- nent land-surveyor at Oxford, for the following account of the rough method adopted by the dealers in corn for estimating the produce of each approaching harvest with reference to speculations in the corn trade. The present mode of calculating the probable yield of wheat of a given district for the comino; harvest is as follows : — About the time that the wheat is bloom- ing, generally about the beginning' of June, a person will go round with a gauge secreted in a hollow cane, which forms a triangle when opened, and represents a certain portion of an acre of ground. This is placed over various portions of the standing crop in the best and worst parts of a field : the number of ears of wheat comprised within the triangle is counted, and the pro- bable quality of the grain is taken into calculation accord- ing as the spring has been wet or dry. On the former supposition the grain is likely to shrink ; on the latter, to hai'den and come out plump. It may be observed, that if 'there has been a good general rain during the last ten days of April and the first ten days of INlay, on the average, no more wet is required for wheat. An expert ganger will form a very accurate estimate of the probable produce of a given district by this method. The weight of a bushel of wheat is a very important element in the calculation of the pr()l)able (piantily of II 2 1 UU APPENDIX. flour. For instance, " in the best wheat counties, and in good years, the weight of a Winchester bushel of wheat ■\ aries from 60 to 62 lbs. In the Isle of Sheppey, in Kent (where perhaps the best samples are produced), it sometimes weighs, in favourable seasons, 64 lbs. a bushel. Where the climate is naturally colder, wetter, and more backward, or in bad seasons, the weight of the bushel does not exceed 56 or 57 lbs." (M'Culloch's Statistical Account, i. p. 472.) Mr. Dixon has fur- nished me Avitli the following table, which has been submitted by him, I believe, to very competent criti- cism. " JProdvce of Flour from a Bushel of Wheat of different Qualities. " A load of wheat (40 bushels) averaging 63 lbs. to the bushel, will produce about 7^ sacks of flour, weigh- ing 280 lbs. per sack. The average produce will con- sequently be about 65 lbs. of flour from 63 lbs. of wheat. " The following scale of produce of flour may be taken as about the average, according to the weight and quality of the wheat. " 63 lbs. per bushel, about 55 lbs. of flour. 60 — do. — 50i do. 55 — do. — 44 do. 50 — do. — 37 do. 45 — do. — 30 do." The above table wiU at one glance show the import- ance of ascertaining the weight of the bushel of wheat, in regard to any calculation of the quantity of food which the year's crop is likely to furnish. The breadth of acreage under each sjiecies of crop seems to be a subject, for various reasons, well worthy APPENDIX. 101 of inquiry on the part of the state. I am fully aware that it is a very difficult question to determine by what machinery the necessary returns could be procured. Perhaps the means which are employed by the Tithe Commission, or by the Commissioners of the Property Tax, might be most readily made available for sucli a purpose. Page 67. Increased Vitality avioiir/st the French Population. I have omitted, by accident, to insert the conclusion at which M. Matthieu arrives in the Annuaire. From the present returns of the population in France, he considers that on the supposition of its being stationary, according to Duvillard's method, the mean duration of life would now be 33 years, whilst Duvillard only gave an expectation of 28| years. This augmentation of more than foiu' years M. Matthieu attributes to the introduction of vaccination, and to the increase of mate- rial prosperity amongst all classes. Page 78. Defective Drainage. As the lecture in which the effects of defective drainage in increasing the rate of mortality were dis- cussed, does not form part of those which 1 have selected for publication, I subjoin a few striking facts illustrativ-e of the intensity of the evil. In a memoir annexed by Mr. Chadwick in the Appendix to the Sup- plementary Report on the Sanitary Condition of the Labouring Population of Great Britain, p. 241., it is stated, " that in the parish of St. Margaret's, Leicester, during the year 1840, the average age at death in the streets that were drained (and that by no means II 3 1 02 AITENDIX. perfectly) was 23^^ years; in the streets that were par- tially drained, 17^ years; in the streets that were en- tirely uudrained, 13^ years. Though the defective drainage and cleansing was the main cause, it was doubtless not the only cause of this variation. That, however, was a year of heavy mortality, and the ave- rage age at death in that and another district during the years 1840, 1841, and 1842, was, in the streets drained, 25 1 years, in those partly drained, 21, in those not drained, 17 years." In the First Keport of the Health of Towns Com- mission, the Rev. J. Gray has furnished an estimate of the rate of mortality in the town of Preston, vol. i. 8vo., p. 179., from which it appears that the rate of mortality varies very greatly according to the cleansing and drain- age of the several districts. Well-cleansed Moderately Badly Worst Ages. Districts. cleansed. cleansed. Streets. Under 1 year - 15-5 20-8 38-3 44-4 ] Under 5 years - 19-3 31-8 322 29-4VP*^\ Above 5 years - 65-2 47-9 29-5 26-2 J ^*^"'^- In the same volume, p. 206., Mr. H. P. Holland, in his Report on the Sanitary Condition of the Town of Chorlton-upon-Medlock, in Lancashire, gives the fol- lowing return : — Streets of 1st class - 1 in 46 "j 2d class - 1 in 39 |- Rate of mortality. 3d class - 1 in 27 J That a more effective system of drainage will be at- tended with a diminution of mortality, can hardly be doubted after the comparative returns from drained and undrained districts. I subjoin two instances, taken at hazard from the General vSanitary Report, 1842. Mr. Crowfoot, an eminent medical practitioner at Beccles, in Suffolk, reported, p. 29., to Mr. Twisleton, the Assistant APPENDIX. 103 Poor Law Commissioner, that the two towns of Beccles and Bungay, of nearly equal population, and of nearly equal natural advantages of situation, &c., excepting that the inhabitants of Bungay were less closely confined, presented very different results in regard to the mortality of the inhabitants. At Beccles a system of drainage had been adopted about thirty years ago, and no open drain now exists in the place. At Bungay, on the contrary, though the opportunities for drainage are equally favour- able, two or three large reservoirs for refuse filth existed in the town itself, and some of its principal drains are open. The result, as gathered from a careful examination of the registers of burials, has been in accordance with theo- retical calculation. Whilst Beccles has improved con- siderably in salubrity, Bungay has retrograded as its population has increased in number. Years. Beccles. Bungay. 1811—21 - 1 in 67 1 in 69 i 1821—31 - 1 in 72 1 in 67 I Kate of mortality. 1831—41 ~ 1 in 71 1 in 59 J It may be as well to guard against the conclusion that neglect of house -drainage is only to be dreaded in towns. Single houses and small groupes of cottages in the country present, not unfrequently, instances of as perilous and disofusting a character. In the same Report, p. 35,, Mr. J. Thomson, of Clitheroe, gives an account of a small cluster of houses, called Littlemoor, the situation of which Avas remarkably healthy and agreeable, and the soil by no means marshy, as its name would seem to uuply. There were six houses, containing twenty-one inhabitants, with a single inade- quate, half-choked up drain, the only under-ground outlet for the filth and refuse of these habitations, which had been constructed forty years ago, when a single 104 APPENDIX. cottage alone occupied the spot. The surplus water was carried off by a deep open ditch into a shallow stagnant pool. A pig-sty had been erected in the centre of the ojDen area, where all the filth of the houses was poured out in open channels to be conveyed away by the above- mentioned under-ground drain, and the litter of the pig- sties not only obstructed the drain, but occasioned an additional pool of filth to accumulate. Fever appeared here in the middle of May, and before the middle of August fifteen cases had occurred, of which nine were residents acclimatised, as it were, and six nurses from the neighbourhood. Mr. Thomson, believing the source of pestilence to be connected with the want of drainage, had the sty pulled down, the filth cleared away, and a large under-ground drain constructed, with which covered troughs from each house could communicate ; and from the hour of the removal of the filth no fresh case of fever occiu-red. It is extraordinary how the existence of so great a nuisance as that of large open drains in the midst of towns, or in their immediate vicinity, is frequently over- looked. There are many reasons why this should happen in our manufacturing towns ; but it is rather remarkable that almost immediately adjoining the celebrated Long Walk in Christ Church Meadow, at Oxford, there is a foul and pestilential open drain, at least 200 yards in length, and from five to seven feet in width in the part termed Merton Meadow. In illustration of the pro- bable effects of such a drain, if the wind were to set in steadily for some time from the drain towards Merton College, I must refer my readers to the evidence of Dr. Baker on the effects of a large open drain in pro- ducing typhus fever in a row of houses in Litchurch Street, Derby. It may be found in the most convenient form in the General Sanitary Report for 1842, p. 26. APPENDIX. 1 06 Page 79. Defective Ventilation. The prejudicial effects of the habitual respiration of impure air upon the health of individuals has been re- peatedly pointed out by medical practitioners. Sir J. Clarke, in the " Cyclopaedia of Practical INIedicine," vol. iv. p. 320., observes, " If an infant born in perfect health, and of the healthiest parents, be kept in close rooms, in which free ventilation and cleanliness are ne- glected, a few months will often suffice to induce tuber- culous cachexia," that is, " the constitutional affection which precedes the appearance of consumption." " There can be no doubt," he adds, " that the habitual respiration of the air of ill- ventilated and gloomy alleys in large towns is a powerful means of augmenting the hereditary disposition to scrofula, and even of inducing such a dis- position de novo^ In illustration of the increased mortality attendant on ill-conditioned dwellings, Mr. P. H. Holland sujiplies this table from Chorlton-upon-Medlock, upon an average of the five years preceding 1843. (Health of Towns Commission, vol. i. p. 207.) Houses of 1st class - 1 in 52 "j 2d class - 1 in 40 |- Rate of mortality. 3d class - 1 in 29 J Dr. Laycock, in his Report upon the City of York, in the same volume, p. 235., gives the following return : — Best drained and ventilated Mortality per cent. Mean Age at Death. parishes Intermediate, ditto 40-2 52-5 35-32 27-70 Worst drained and venti- lated, ditto 62-8 22-57 106 APPENDIX. Of" tlie favourable results of an improved system of ventilation as a corrective of the evil, there are on all sides the most undeniable proofs. I select two instances. "In 1832 there were 600 pupils at the Norwood School, amongst whom scrofula had broken out extensively, and great mortality had occurred, which was ascribed to bad and insufficient food. The case was investigated by Dr. Arnott : the food was proved to be most abundant and good ; and defective ventilation, and consequent atmospheric impurity, was assigned as the cause. Ven- tilation was applied by his direction ; the scrofula soon after disappeared : and llOOchildx'cn are now maintained in good health, where the 600 before ventilation were scrofulous and sickly." — Health of Towns Commission, i. p. 78. In the same volume, p. 70., a more remarkable instance is given from a treatise by M. Baudelocque, " Sur les Maladies Scrofuleuses." At the village of Oresmeaux, about three leagues from Amiens, situated in an open and elevated plain, the greater part of the inhabitants were engaged in weaving linen in their houses, Avhich were for the most part low, and exceedingly close and dark. Humidity was thought necessary to keep the threads fresh, so that air and light were scarcely allowed to penetrate into the workshops. Nearly all the inhabit- ants were seized with scrofula, and many families, con- tinually ravaged by that malady, became extinct. " A fire destroyed nearly a third of the village : the houses were rebuilt in a more salubrious manner ; and by degrees scrofula became less common, and disappeared from that part. Twenty years later, another third of the village was also consumed : the same amelioration in buihling, with a like effect as to scrofula. The disease APPENDIX. 107 is now confined to the inhabitants of the older houses, which retain the same causes of'insakibrity." On the defective economy of places of work in respect to ventilation, the General Sanitary Report, 1842, p. 98., may be consulted, from which it will be seen that measures of prevention are both more easy and less costly than measures of relief. THE END. LoNlJON ; Printed liy A. Spo'itiswoude, New- Street- S(]uaie. March 31, 1845. A Catalogue of New Works and New Editions, PRINTED FOR LONGMAN, BROWN, AND CO. AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AFFAIRS. Pages Bayldon On valuin? Rents, &c. - 3 Crocker's Land-Survcyms . . 7 Davy's Ajricultural Chemistry . 7 Greenwood's (Col.) Tree-Lifter - 10 Hannam on Waste Manures - - 10 Johnson's Farmer's Encyclopcedia 14 Loudon's Encyclopaedia of Agri- culture - - - 17 " Self- Instruction for Far- mers, Sec - - - 17 " (Mrs.) Lady's Country Companion - - 17 Low's Elements of ■\ericulture - W " Breeds of the Domesticated Animalsof Great Uritain- 18 " On Landed Prnpr-rtv - - IS Whitley's A15r1cultur.1l Ge.;ior>- - 32 ARTS, MAMUFACTURES, AND ARCHITECTURE. Brande's Di.t.nnary of Science, Literature, an.l Art . - - 5 Budge's Miner's Guide - - . 5 Gwilt's Encyclopa'dia of .Architec- ture 10 Haydon's Lectures on Painting and Design - - - _ _ ij Loudon's Encyclopsedia of Cottage, Farm, and Villa Architecture and Furniture - - - . . 17 Petrie's Round Towers of Ireland - 23 Porter's Manufacture of Silk - - '23 " " Porcelain& Glass 23 Reid (Dr.) On Warming and Ven- tilating - . - - - 21 Savage's Dictionary of Printing - 26 Steam Ensinc.hy the Artisan Club 28 L're's Dictionary of .Arts, Manufac- tures, and Mines - - 31 " On Recent Improvements in Arts, &c. - - - - 31 Wathen's Egypt. Arts& Antiquities 31 BIOGRAPHY. Aikin's Life of Addison - - - .1 Bells Lives of the most eminent British Poets . - - 4 Biographical Dictionary of the So- ciety for the Diffusion of Useful Knowledge - - - - . 4 Dover's Life of the King of Prussia 8 Dunham's Lives of the Early M'ri- ters of Great Britain - 8 " Lives of British Dramatists 8 Forster's Statesmen of the Com- monwealth of England - - 9 Glei^'s Lives of the most Eminent British Military Commanders - 9 Grant's (Mrs.) Memoir and Corre- spondence ----- 9 Hunter's Life of Oliver Heywood - 14 James's Life of the Black Prince - 14 " Lives of the most Eminent Foreign Statesmen - - - 14 Leslie's Life of Constable - IG Mackintosh's Life of Sir Thomas More 18 Maunder's Biographical Treasury- 21 Roberts's Duke of Monmouth - 25 PiOfCoe's Li\csof British Lawyers- 25 Russell's Correspondence ol the Fourth Duke of Bedford - - 4 Shelley's Lives of the most eminent Literary Men of Italy, Spain, and Portugal - 2S '* Lives of tlie most eminent French Writers - - 27 Smith's Memoirs of the Marquis De Pomlial - - . .27 Southey'8 Lives of the Admirals - 27 Tate's iloratius liestitutus - 2!) BOOKS OF GENERAL UTILITY, Acton's C'ookery - - - - 3 Black's Treatise on Brewing - - 4 Collegian's Guide (The) - - G Donovan's Domestic Economy - H Hints on Etiquette - - - 1 1 Life U Hudson's Parent's Hand-book - 13 " Executor's Guide - - 13 " on Making Wills - - 13 Lorimer's Letters to a "Voung ' Master Mariner - - - 17 Loudon's Sclf-ln-truction - . 17 Maunder's Treasury o) Knowledge 20 Maunder's Sc-icntitic and Literary Treasury - - - 21 CLASSIFIED INDEX. Maunder's Treasury of History - "20 " Biograpliical Treasury - 21 Universal Class-Book - 21 Parkes's Domestic Duties - - 24 Pycroft's (Rev. J.) Course of En- glish Reading - - - - 24 Riddle's Latin-Eng. Dictionaries 24 Short Whist - - . - . '^7 Thomson's Domestic Management of the Sick Room - 30 Interest Tables - - 30 Tomlins's Law Dictionary - - 30 Weh.ter's Encvclnpxdia of Domes- tic Economy '- - . .32 BOTANY AND GARDENING IN GENERAL. , Callcott's Scripture llcrhal - - 6 Conversations on Botany - . g Druinmond's First Steps to Botany 8 Glendinning On the Culture of the Pine Apple - - _ 9 Greenwood's (Col.) Tree-Lifter - 10 Henslow's Botany - - - - 11 Iloare On Cultivation of the Grape Vine on Open Walls - 11 " On the Management of the Roots of Vines - - - 11 Hooker's British Flora - - - 12 " Icones Plant,arum - - 12 " and Taylor's Muscologia Britannica - - - 12 Jackson's Pictorial Flora - - 14 Knapp's Gramina Britannica - 15 Lindley's Theory of Horticulture . 16 " Outline of the First Prin- r^^t Kitchen Garden " Introduction to Botany - 16 " Flora Medica - - - 16 " Synopsis of British Flora IS Loudon's Ilortus Britannicus - 17 '* " Lignosis Londinensia 18 Self-Instruction for Gar- deners, &c. - - - 17 " Encycloprcdia of Trees and Shrubs - - 17 ** " Gardening 17 " " Plants - 17 " Suburban Garden and \'iila Companion - 18 " Cemeteries & Church-yds 18 Repton's Landscape Gardening and Landscape Architecture - - 24 Rivers's Rose .Amateur's Guide - 24 Roberts On the Vine - - - 24 Rogers's Vegetable tiultivator - 25 Schleiden's .Scientific Bot,inv - 2fi Smith's Introduction to Botai y - " English Flora - CHRONOLOGY. Blair's Chronological Tables - 4 Calendar (Illuminated) & Diary, 1845 14 Nicolas's Chronology of History - 22 Riddle's Ecclesiastical Chronology 24 Tate's Iloratius Rcstilutns - - 29 Watben'sChiunulog; of Ane. Egyjit 31 COMMERCE AND MERCAN- TILE AFFAIRS. Kane's (Di.) Induslrhil Resources of Ireland - - - - 14 Lorimer's Letters to a Young Master .Mar.ner - - . . 17 .M'fulbKhs Dictionary of Com- inei.-.andC.iinnier. Naiigatlon- 19 Spacknian's St;. tisti(!al Tables - 27 Stt cI's Shipmaster's Assistant - 28 GEOGRAPHY X ATLASES. Butler's Sketch of Ancient and Modern Geo-rapby - 6 " Atlasof .Modern Geography 6 " " Ancient do. - - 6 Coolcy's World Surveyed . . 7 De Strzelecki's New South Wales - 8 Finch's Nat. Boundaries of Empires 9 Hall's New General Atlas - - 10 Howitt's Australia Felix - . 13 -M'Culloch's Geographical Dictionary 18 Maltc-Brun's Geogralihy - - 19 Murray's Encvclop. of l/cographv - 22 Parrot's Ascent of .Mount Ararat 7 HISTORY X CRITICISM. Adair's (SnU.) Memoir of his Mis- sion to Vienna - - - - 3 Pa^es Addison's History of the Kni-hts ' Templars - - " - 3 Bell's History of Russia - - 4 Blair's f'hron. and Ilistor. Tables - 4 Bloomfield's Edition of Thucvdic'ea 4 " Tran.lation of dii. - j Cooley'9 History of Maritime and Inland Discovery - - - 7 Crowe's History of France - . 7 Dahlmann's English Revolution - 7 Dunham's History of Spain and Portugal - . fl " History of Europe dur- ing the Middle Ages - 8 " Hist, of the German Emp. 8 History of Denmark, Sweden, and Norway- 8 History of Poland - 8 Dunlop's History bf Fiction - - 8 Fergus's History of United States 9 Grant's (Mrs.) AXemoir and Corre- spondence - - - . _ 9 Grattan'sHistory of Netherlands - 9 Halsted's Life of Richard III. - 10 Horslej 's (Bp.) Biblical Criticism - 12 Jclfrey's (Francis) Contributions to Tlie Edinburgh Review - - 14 Keightley's Outlines of History - 15 Laing's Kings of Norway - - 15 Macaulay's Essays contributed to The Edinburgh Review - - 18 Mackintosh's Miscellaneous Works 18 M'Culloch's Dictionary, Historical, Geographical, and Statistical - 18 Mackmtosh's History of England - 18 Maunder's Treasury of History - 20 Moore's History of Ireland - - 21 Miiller's Mythology - - . 2i Nicolas's Chronology of History - 22 Ranke's History of flie Reformation 24 Roberts's Duke of Monmouth - 2.5 Rome, History of - - - - 25 Russell's Correspondence of the Fourth Duke of Bedford - - 4 Scott's History of Scotland - - 26 Sismondi's History of the Fall of Roman Empire - 27 " Italian Republics - 27 Stebbing's History of the Church- 28 " History of Reformation 28 Switzerland, History of - - -29 Sydney Smith's Works - . - 27 Thirlwall's History of Greece - 30 Tooke's History of Prices - . 30 Turner's History of England - 31 Wright's Hist, of Society in England 32 JUVENILE BOOKS, INCLUDING MRS. MARCET'S WORKS. Boy's own Book (The) - - . 5 Ilawcss Tales of the North Ameri- can Indians ----- 11 Howitt'5(Wra.) Jack of the Mill - 13 " " Boy's Country Book 13 Hewitt's (Mary) Child's Picture and Verse Book - 12 Ladies' (the Young) Book - 32 Marcet's Conversations — On the History of England - 20 On Chemistry - - . ]•) On .Natural Philosophy - - 19 On I'tjlitical Economy - - 19 On Vegetable I'bvsioIogT - 19 On Land and W.aer - - 20 " The (J inie .■( (;rammar - 20 " Will, s(,,,,,„„Kir - - 20 " L. ,."!-, ni, \,,nn:,ls,&c. . '20 " 'nil-,. iKih. .11.. nn Language 20 Marryata M.i^;, iuj.iu Keady- - 20 •' ScUlLisuil a.iada - 20 Maunder's Universal Class-Ilook - 21 Pycroft's (Rev. J.) English Reading '23 Summerly's (Mrs. Felix) -Mother's Primer 28 Uncle Peter's Fairy Tall 9 - - 31 MEDICINE. Bull's Hints to Mothers - . . f, " .Management of Children - i Copland's Dictionary of Medicine - 7 Elliolson's Human I'iivsii.logy - R Holland's Medical Notes - - 11 Lefevre's (Sir George) Apology for the Ner^rs ir. Micleod ( In Rheumatism and Wilhs ( Drs.) on Disease ira On Food and Diet - .■■sMeilical Guide Sandby On Mcs iierisin - - 1 Wigan (Dr.) On Du.tlity of tlie Mind ; MISCELLANEOUS. ^ Pages Beale's (Nliss) Vale of the Towey - 4 Illack's Treatise on Brewins - - 4 Bray's rhiloso])hy of Necessity - 5 Burtin on Amateurs of Pictures 6 Clavers's Forest Life - - - 6 Collegian's Guide (The) - . 6 Colton's Lacon _ - - - 6 De Morgan On Probabilities - 8 De Strzelecki's New South Wales - 8 Finch's Natural Boundaries of Empires ... - - 9 Good's Book of Nature - - - 9 Graham's English - - - - 9 Grant's Letters from the Mountains 9 Guest's Mabinoeion . - - 10 Hand-book of "Taste - - - 11 Hobbcs (Thos.), English 'Works of 12 Horace, by Tate - - - - 29 Holland's Proffressive Education - 11 Hewitt's Rural Life of England - 12 " Visitsto Remarkable Places 13 Student- Life of G erraany - 13 Sural and Domestic Life of Germany - - - 13 •* Colonisation and Chris- tianity - - - 13 " German Experiences - 12 Humphreys' lUuminatedBooks - 14 Illuminated Calendar - - - 14 Jetfrey's (Francis) Contributions to The Edinburgh Review - - 14 Laing's (S., jun. ) on National Distress (Prize Essay) - - 15 Lefevre's (Sir George) Apology for the Nerves ----- 16 Letters on American Debts - - 27 Life of a Travelling Physician - 16 Loudon's (Mrs.) Lady's Country Companion - • - - 17 Macaulay's Critical and Historical Essays ------ 18 Mackintosh's Miscellaneous Works 18 Marx and Willis (Drs.) on Decrease of Disease ----- 20 Miiller's Mythology - - - 23 Sandby On Mesmerism - - - 25 Sandford's Church, School, & Parish 25 Seaward's Narrative of Shipwreck- 2G Smith's (Rev. Sydney) Works - 27 Rummerly's (Mrs. Felix) Mother's Primer - - - - - 28 Taylor's Statesman - - - 29 Walker's Chess Studies - - - 31 Welsford on the English Languige 32 Wigan (Dr.) On Duality of the Mmd ,32 Willoughby's(Ladv) Diary - - 32 Wright's History of Society in Ecg. 33 NATURAL HISTORY. Callow's Popular Conchology - 6 Gray'sI-'iguresofMoUuscousAnimals 9 " and Mitchell's Ornithology - 10 Kirby and Spence's Entomology - 15 Lee's Taxidermy - - - - 16 " Elements of Natural History 16 Proceedings of Zoological Society - 23 Stephens's British Coleoptera - 28 Swainson On Study of N atural Hist. 29 '* .\nimals - - - - 29 ** Taxidermy - - - 29 Quadrupeds - - - 29 Loudon's Encydoptedias — Pages Trees and Shrubs - - - 17 Gardening - - - - 17 Agriculture - - - - 17 Plants n M'Culloch's Geographical Dictionary 19 " Dictionary of Commerce I'J Murray's Encvclop. of Geography - 22 Savage's Dictionary of Printing - 26 L're's Dictionary of .\rts, Manufac- tures, and Mines- - - - 31 Webster & Parkes's Dom. Economy 3.; Pages Brewster's Optics - - - - 5 Conversations on Mineralogy - 7 De la Beche On the Geology of .vall,&c. - 7 Do iChe strv Birds Animals in Menageries - Fish, Amphibians, am] Reptiles Insects - - - - Malacology - Habits and Instincts of Anil - 29 Transactions of Zoological Society Turton's Shells of theBritishlslands .u Waterton's ?;ssays on Natural Hist. 33 "Westwood's Classification of Insects 31 NOVELS AND WORKS OF FICTION. Bray's (Mrs.) Novels - - - 5 Carl^n's Rose of Tistelbn - - 6 Doctor (thel - - 8 Dunlop's History of Fiction - 8 Howitt's (Anna Mary) Betrothed Lovers ----- 12 " (Mary) Neighbours - - 12 '* Home ----- 12 " President's Daughters - 12 " Diary, &c 12 " TheH Family, &c. - 12 Marryafs Mastcmian Ready - '' Settle IS in Canada Opie's (Mrs.) Novels K.imblesofthe Emperor Chirg Tih b TroUope's (Mrs.) The Lauiriiigtons 30 ONE-VOL. CYCLOP/EDiAS AND DICTIONARIES. Blaine's Encyclop. of Rural Sports 4 Brande's l)iction.ary of Science, Literature, and .\rt - - - 5 Copland's Dictionary of Medicine - 7 G^^ilt's Encyclop. of -Architecture - 10 Johnson's F.trmer's Encyclopa-dia- 11 POETRY AND THE DRAMA. Aikms (Dr.) British Poets - - 26 Baillie's New Dramas . - - 3 " Flavs ot the Passions - 3 Bowdler's Family Shakespeare - 26 Chalenor's Walter Gr.ay - . 6 " Poetical Remains - 6 Costello's Persian Rose Garden - 7 Goldsmith's Poems . - - 9 Horace, by Tate - - - - 29 L. E. L.'s 'Poetical Works - - 16 Macaulay's Lays of Ancient Rome 18 Montgornerv's Poetical Works - 21 Moore's Poe'tical Works - - 21 " Lalla Rookh, medium 8vo. 21 •• " " Icp. 8vo. - 21 " Irish Melodies - - - 21 " Do. illustrated by Maclise 21 Moral of Flowers - - - - 21 Nisbet's Poems - - - - 23 Southey's Poetical Works - - 27 " British Poets - - - 26 Spirit of the Woods ... 28 Tliomson's Seasons - - - 30 Turner's Richard III. - - - 30 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND STATISTICS. M'Culloch's Geographical, Statisti- cal, and Historical Dictionary - 19 " Dictionary of Commerce 19 " Literatxire of Political Economy ----- 19 " On Funding & Taxation 18 Kane's (Dr.) Industrial Resources of Ireland - - - - - 14 Spackman's Statistical Tables - 27 Strong's Greece as a Kingdom - 28 Tooke's History of Prices - - 30 RELIGIOUS X MORALWORKS. Amv Herbert 3 Bailey's Essays on Pursuit of Truth 3 Bloomfield's Greek Testament - 5 *' College and School do. 4 " Greek & English Lexi- con to New Testament 5 Burder's Oriental Customs - - 5 Burns's Christian Philosophy - 5 *' ** Fragments - 6 Callcott's Scripture Herbal - - 6 Dibdin's Sunday Library . - 28 Doddridge's Family Expositor - 8 Englishman's Greek Concordance of the New Testament - - 8 Englishman'sHeb.&Chald. Concord. 8 Fitzroy's (Lady) Scrip. Conversations 9 Ford's New Devout Communicant 9 *' Century of Prayers - - 9 Hints on Life ----- 11 Hoisley's i Bp.) Biblical Criticism - 13 Kip[iis's Collection of H}-mns, &c. - 15 Marriage Gift 20 Parkes's Domestic Duties - - 23 Pearson's Prayers for Families - 22 Riildle's Letters from a Godfather - 24 Robinson's Greek&EnglishLexicon to the New Testament 25 Sandford's Parochialia - - - 25 ** Female Improvement - 25 1 " On Woman - - 25 Sermonon the Mount (Thel - - 26 Spalding's Philosophy of Christian Morals ----- . 27 Farey On the Steam Engine - Fosbroke On the Arts, Manncis, Manufactures, and Institutions ofthe Greeks and Romans - Greener's Science of Gunnery - 1 " On the Gun - - - 10 Herschcl's Natural Philosophy - 11 '* Astronomy - - - 11 Holland's Manufactures in Metal - 12 Hunt's Researches on Light - - 13 K.ane's Elements of Chemistry - 14 Kater .and Lardner's Mechanics - 15 Lardner's Cabinet Cyclopxdia - 15 " Hydrostatics and Pneu. matics- - - -16 " and W,alker's Electricity 15 " Aritlimetic - - - 16 ** Geometry - - .16 " Treatise on Heat - - 16 Lectures on Polarised Light - - 16 Lerebours' rhotography,byEgerton 8 Lloyd On Light and Vision - - 16 Low's Simple Bodies of Chemistry 18 Mackenzie's Physiology of Vision - 18 Marcet's (Mrs.) Conversations on the Sciences, &c. - - - 19 Moseley's Practical Mechanics - 22 *' Engineering&.\rchitecture 21 Narrien's ( eometry - - - 26 " Astronomv and Geodesy 26 Owen's Lectures on Comp. Anatomy 22 Parnell On Roads - - - 22 Pearson's Practical Astronomy - 23 Peschel'sEleKents of Physics - 23 Phillips's Palreozoic Fossils of Cornw.all, &c. - - 23 " Guide to Geology - - 22 " Treatise on Geology - 2;! " Introduct. to Mineralogy 23 Portlock's Report on the Geology of Londonderry - - - - 23 Powell's Natural Philosophy - - 23 Quarterly Journal of the Geological Society of London - - - 24 Roberts's Dictionary of Geology - 25 Sandhurst's Mathematical Course 26 Scoresby's Magnetical Investigations 26 Pcott's Arithmetic and Algebra - 26 Thomson's Algebra ... 30 '^Vilkinson's Engines of War - - 32 IVood On Railroads - - - 32 TOPOGRAPHY AND GUIDE BOOKS. Addison's History of the Temple Church ... 3 " Guide to ditto - - 3 Britton's Picture of London - • 5 Howitt's German Experiences - 12 " Astraha Felix - - - 13 - 20 - 20 22 Tate's History of St. Paul - - 29 Tayler'sDora'Melder - - - 29 " Margaret; or, the Pearl - 29 " Sermons - - - - 29 " Lady Mary; or. Not of the World - - - 29 Turner's Sacred History - - - 31 Wardlaw's Sociuian Controversy - 32 Willoughby's (Lady) Diary - - 32 RURAL SPORTS. Blaine's Dictionary of Sports - 4 Hansard's Fishing'in \\ales - 11 Hawker's Instnicfionsto Sportsmen 11 Loudon's (Mrs.) Lady's Country Companion - - - - - 17 Ronalris's Fly-fisher's Entomology 25 Thackers Courser'sRemembrancer 29 Coursing Rules - - 22 THE SCIENCES IN GENERAL AND MATHEMATICS. Bakewell's Introduction to Geology 3 Balmain's Lessons on Chemistry - 3 Brande's Dictionary of Science, Literature, and .\rt - - - 5 TRANSACTIONS OF SOCIETIES. Transactions of Societies: — British Architects - - - 30 Civil Engineers ... 30 Entomological . - - 30 Linnaean - - - - 30 Zoological - - - - 30 Proceedings ofthe Zoological Society 23 Quarterly Journal ofthe Geological Society of London - - - 24 TRAVELS. Allan's Mediterranean - . . 3 Beale's (Miss) Vale of the Towey - 4 China, Last "i'ear in - - - 6 Cooley's World Surveyed . - 7 De Custines Russia - - - 7 De Strzekcki's New South Wales - 8 Harris's Highlands of ^Ethiopia - 11 Howitt's Wanderings of a Journey- man Taylor ----- 13 ** German Experiences - 13 " (^R.) Australia I- elix - 13 Laing's Notes of a Traveller - - 15 " Residence in Norway - 22 " Tour in Sweden - - 22 Life of a Travelling Ihysician - 16 Modern Syrians - - - 21 Parrot's .\scent of Mount .\rarat 7 Postans's Observations on Smdh - 23 Seaward's Narrative - - - 26 Strong's Greece as a Kingdom - 28 Von Orlich's i ravels in India - 31 VETERINARY MEDICINE AND AFFAIRS. Field's Veterinary Records - - 9 Morton's Veterinary Medicine - 21 " *' 'Toxicological Chart 21 PercivalTs Hippopathology - .23 " Anatomy of the Horse - 23 Spooner On p'oot and Leg of Horse 28 Tui-ner On the Foot ofthe Horse 31 White's Veterinary .Art - - - 33 " Cattle .Medicine - - 32 CATALOGUE. xVCTON (ELIZA.) -MODERN COOKERY, In all its Branches, reduced to a System of Easy I'ractice. For the use of Pnvato Families In a Series of Keciipts, all of which have been strictly tested, and are fjiven with the most miimte exactness. By Ei.iza Acton. Dedicated to the Youni' Housekeepers of Knffland Fcp. 8vo. illustrated by woodcuts, 7s. 6d. cloth. " Aware of our own incompetency to pronounce upon the clainn of this volume to the confidonce of thoie most interested in its contents, we submitted it to more than one pn.fessor of the art of cookerv. The rctwit m.ade to us IS more than favourable. We are assured tliat Misr. Action's instructions m:,v he safelv followed -Tr redoes are dlstln^'Ulshcd f.)r eicellencc. The dishes prepared .iccordin^ to Miss Acton's direct ons—n 11 of iChich she telU us, have been tested and approved— will give satisfaction by their dclic;i. y, and will be found economical in price as well as delicious in flavour. Witli such attestations to its supeiior wortli, there is no dou'it that tlie vcdume will be purchased and consulted hy the domestic authorities of every family in which irood cookerv, combined with reeid economy, is an object of interest." — Globe. " ° ADAIR (SIR ROBERT).-AN HISTORICAL MEMOIR OF A MI.SSIOX to the COURT of VIEXN.X in 180B. Hy the Ki-ht Honourable Sir Hohkrt Adair, G.t.'.B. With a reelection from his Despatches, published by permission cf the proper Authorities. 8vo. ISs. cloth. ** Sir Kobert Adair's valuable Memoir needs no commendation. Its obvious utility, the nature of its contents and the name of the author, will command the notice and appreciation of statesmen and historians." ATjfEN.»:uM.' ADDISON.-THE KNIGHTS TEMPLARS. By C. G. Addison, Esq., of the Inner Temple. 2d Edition, enlarged. Square crown 8vo. with Illustrations, 18s. cloth. ADDISON.-THE TEMPLE CHURCH IN LONDON: Its History and Antiquities. By C. G. Addison, Esq., of the Inner Temple ; Author of " The History of the Knights Templars." Square crown 8vo. with Si.x Plates, 5s. cloth. Also, A FULL AND CCMPLETE GUIDE, HISTORICAL AND DESCRIPTIVE, TO THE TEMPLE CHURCH. (From Mr. Addison's " History of theTempleCluircli.") Sijuare cr. 8vo. Is. sewed. AIKIN.-THE LIFE OF JOSEPH ADDISON. Illustrated by many of his Letters and Private Pajiors never before published. By Lucy AlKlN. 2 vols, post 8vo. with Portrait from Sir Godfrey Kiieller's i'icture, K^s. cloth. ALLAN. -A PICTORIAL TOUR IN THE MEDITERRANEAN ; Comprising Malta, Dalmatia, Tvirkcy, Asia Minor, Grecian Archipelago, Kgyi)t, Nubia, Greece, Ionian Islands, Sicily, Itr.ly, and Spain. By J. H. Allan, .Vloniber of the .\theninn .Xrchao- logical Society, and of the Egyi ti an Society of Cairo. Imperial 4to. with upwiirds of Forty Lit hosrraphed' Drawings, and 70 \S ood Engravings, .^3. .3s. cloth. AMY HERBERT. By a Lady. Edited bv the Tev. William Se'well, B.D. of Exeter College, Oxford. 2d Edition, 2 vols. fcp. 8vo. 9s. cloth. "' Amy Herbert' paints nature to the life. It is by ' a Lady,' for whose soundness Mr. Sewell Is sponsor. It is a^lmirably adapteil for the youn;; of the higher classes, and we sincerely hope it may not be the fair ^luthor's last pro- duction." — C'HRISTl VN ReMEMURAN'CEK. BAILEY.-ESSAYS ON THE PURSUIT OF TRUTH, And on the Progress of Knowledge. By Samuel Bailky, Author of " Essays on the For- mation and Publication of Opinions." "Berkeley's Iheory of Vision," &c. 2d Edition, revised and enlarged. 8vo. 9s. 6d. cloth. BAKEWELL.-AN INTRODUCTION TO GEOLOGY. Intenf'i'd to convey Practical Knowledge of the Srieii'-e, and comprising the most important recent discoveries; with explanations of the f;icts ami phenomena which serve to contirm or invalidate various Geological Theories. By Kodkkt Bakkwki.i,. Filth Edition, considerably enlarged. 8vo. with numerous Plates and Woodcuts, 21s. cloth. BALMAIN.-LESSONS ON CHEMISTRY, BAYLDON.-ART OF VALUING RENTS AND TILLAGES, And the Tenant's Right of Entering and Quitting Farms, explained by several Specimen; Valuatinns; and Remarks on the ("nltivation pursued on Soils in (lillerent Situations Adapted to the Use of Landlords. Land-Agents, Appraisers, Farmers, and Tenants. Bv J.S. Bavldon. 6th Edition, corrected and revised. By.IoiiN Donaldson, Land-Stewarif, Author of " A Treatise on .Manures and Grasses." 8vo. 10s. fid. cloth. CATALOGUE OF NEW WORKS BEALE (ANNE) -THE VALE OF THE TOWEY; Or, Sketches in South AVales. By Anne Beale. Post 8vo. 10s. fid. cloth. "Miss Beale has been sojournin;; in the Vale of the Towev ; and has thrown her enioyment of its scenery, and her observations on the manners of its rustic population, into tLe form of a series of sketches. These, either by original design, or by the mode in which she happened to cast them, become connected together, as tlie book proceeds, by means of the charaeters, incidents, and fortunes involved in a rural Inve-matcb,— which, like all other love, does not run quite smooth to its ending. The great merit of her book is its truth ; which leaves a strong im- pression on the reader's mind." — Spi:ctator. BEDFORD CORRESPONDENCE. - CORRESPONDENCE OE JOHN, FOURTH DUKE OF HEDFORD, selected from the Originals at VVoburn Abbey: with Introductions hv Lord John Russell. 8vo. Vol. 1 (1742-18), 18s. cloth ; Vol. 2 (1749-60), 15s. cloth. " The second volume of this pubUcation includes a correspondence having relation to the period from the Pence of Aix-la-ChapcUe to the death of George II. Its most remarkable portion bears upon an important question on which there exist some differences of opinion at the present time, viz. the intrit^ues which led to the junction of the Duke of Newcastle and Pitt, in 17.'j7. The letters respecting the state of Iieland under tlie Viceroyalty of the Duke of Bedford, also here, are not a little interesting." — Morning Herald. BELL.-LIVES OF THE MOST EMINENT ENGLISH POETS. By Robert Bell, Esq. 2 vols. fcp. 8vo. with Vignette Titles, 12s. cloth. BELL.-THE HISTORY OF RUSSIA, From the Earliest Period to the Treaty of Tilsit. By Rouert Bell, Esq. 3 vols. fcp. 8vo. with Vignette Titles, 18s. cloth. BIOGRAPHICAL DICTIONARY Of the Society for the Diffusion of Useful Knowledge. Half-volumes 1 to 7 (Aa to Az-ZUBEVDI, comprising the letter A), 8vo. 12s. each, cloth. %* Published Quarterly.— The work will probably not exceed Thirty Volumes. **We have carefully examined the articles under letter A, now completed, and have no reason to complain of any want of uniformity. There seems to have been, on the whole, a judicious apporti'ining of space, according to the importance of the individual. In order to secure this necessary uniformity, a society, which had no pecuniary profit as its end, was more likely to succeed than a private publisher, or body of publishers. In style, execution, and completeness, the lives are far superior to those of any bioi^raphical dictionary with which we are acquainted. The only one, indeed, with which, for completeness, it can be compared, is the French * Biographic Universelle,' but in this respect it has very greatly the advantage." [The reviewer institutes a comparison hi favour of the English work, too loni; to be quoted, and ends his parai^raph as follows :] — So that tlie Society's Dictionary must be regarded as a labour not only for Great Britain, but for Europe. — In all the articles there are two points in which they are fuller and more accurate than any previous work of the kind ; and these are, the titles, dates, and places of publi- cation of books, and their editions, and the sources from whence the materials have been derived for the biography.'* Athen^um. BLACK.-A PRACTICAL TREATISE ON BREWING, Based on Chemical and Economical Principles: with Formula; for Public Brewers, and Instructions for Private Families. By William Black. Third Edition, revised and cor- rected, with considerable Additions. ' The Additions revised by Professor Graham, of the London University. 8vo. 10s. fid. cloth. ** I take occasion, in concluding this article, to refer my readers to the * Practical Treatise on Brewing,* hy Mr. William Black, a gentleman of much experience in the husiness. His little work contains a great deal of useful in- formation." — Dr. Uhe's Supplement to his " Dictionauy." BLAINE.-AN ENCYCLOPiEDIA OF RURAL SPORTS ; Or, a complete Account, Historical, Practical, and Descriptive, of Hunting, Shooting, Fishing, Racing, and other Field Sports and Athletic Amusements of the present day. By Delabere P. Blaine, Esq. Author of " Outlines of the Veterinary Art," '■ Canine Pathology," &c. &c. Illustrated by nearly 600 Engravings on Wood, by R. Branston, from Drawings by Aiken, T. Landseer, Uickes, &c. 1 thick vol. 8vo. di2. 10s. cloth. BLAIR'S CHRONOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL TABLES, From the Creation to the present time: with Additions and Corrections from the most authen- tic Writers ; including? the Computation of St. Paul, as connecting tlie Period from the Exode to the Temple. Under the revision of Sir IIknky Ellis, K.H., Principal Librarian of the British Museum. Imperial 8vo. 3ls. 6d. half-bound morocco. " The student of history, long accustomed to the Doctor's ponderous and unmanageable folio, will rejoice over this hand-i.tne and handy volume. It is the revival and enlargement, in a far more compact and available form than the <.n„Mii:iI, of the celebrated ' Chronolos^ical Tables' of Dr. Blair. It comprises additions to our own time, and correc- tion, ir'.m the most recent authorities. The outline of the plan is faithfully preserved and carried out, with every iiiiid iivt'ineut of which it was susceptible." — Examiner. BLOOMFIELD.-HISTORY OF THE PELOPONNESIAN AVAR. By Thucydides. 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Svo. 6s. cloth. nple and spontaneous effusions of a mind apparentlv filled with feelings which render the fireside happy, ' ■" "■ ' " " ■' ■ ■ ■ •- ~ l^j,/, ay with benefit be received into the * happy liomes of Engla >'s Edinburgh Jouknal. CLAYERS.-POREST LIFE. By .Marv Clav.'jrs, an Actual Settler; Author of "A New Home, Who '11 Follow?" 2 vols, fcp. Svo. r2s. cloth. COLLEGIAN^S GUIDE (THE); Or, Uecollections of Colleg:e Days, setting forth the .-Advantages and Temptations of a Univer- sity Kducation. By **** ******, JM.A. College, Oxford. Post Svo. ICs. 6d. cloth. COLTON.-LACON ; OR, MANY THINGS IN FEW WORDS. By theUev. C. C. CoLTON. New Edition. Svo. 12s. cloth. CONVERSATIONS ON BOTANY. 9th Edition, improved. Fcp. Svo. 22 Plates, 7s. 6d. cloth ; with the plates coloured, 12s. cloth. 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M'CULLOCH.-THE LITERATURE OF POLITICAL ECO- NOMY ; beinir a Classified Catalogrue of the piiiiripal Works in tlic diflViciit (lipartniciits of Political Ecoiioiiiy, interspersed with Historical, Critical, and biographical Notices Hv J R. M'CuLLOCH, Esq. 8vo. [In the i>'ress MCCULLOCH. -A DICTIONARY, PRACTICAL, TTIEORETI- CAL, AND HISTORICAL, OF COMMERCE AX!) COMMERCIAL NAVKi \TI()\. Illus- trated with Maps and Flans. Hy J. R. iM'Culloch, Esq. Member of the Institute of France. An entirely New Edition, corrected throuarhout, enlarged, and improved. 1 very thick vol. 8vo. 50s. cloth ; or 55s. strong-iy half- bound in rnssia, with fle.vible back. "Without exaggeration one of tlie most wonderful compil.itions of the age. The power ofcontinuoux labour the wi.Ie ranse of inquiry, and the power of artistical finisli, wliicli have hcen hrought into play hy this work' are prot).ibIy unrivalli-d in the history of literature Compared with all previous attempts to compile a commercial dictionary, Mr. M'CuUoch's appears as the realisation of an idea which former projectors had conceii-cd too va-niely to he able to c.irry into execution. It is superior to them all, quite as much for the spirit of judicious selretion brought by the author to his task, as for any other quality. The great merit of the work is, that, while omitting nothing of essential importanre, it contains nothing that is useless or mcrel v cumbrous The sui'c-c^s of the earlier editions of Mr. MTuUoch's Dictionary is, after all,"^ the best proof of its merit : the facts attending it, j/rove that the mercantile, political, and literary public were in want of such a work, and that thev were satisfied m ith the manner in which Mr. MTalloeh had performed his task. No reader can rise from the perusal of any one of the larger articles without feeling that no previous writer has concentrated so much valuable information within so small a compass, or conveved his information in so agreeable a style. And the remark is equally aiiiilicable to all the nume- rous articles of which this crammed volume is composed It is, indeed, inv:ilual)le'as a book of reference to the merchant, the insurance-agent, the statesman, and thr journalist; and its articles, from the care and talent with which they are executed are a.s well calcuhit.M to mii'I'Iv the wants of the patient inquirer as of the hurried man of business. Mr. M'Culloch occupies a hi^'h ph,.,/ :imnii:;-t tlie authors of the day as a hard-headed original thinker in political economy; a still higher, as one of the IlU)^t iralous-and successful' labourers in rendering that science popular ; but, of all his publications, his Commercial Dictionary is the one least likely to encounter tlie rivalry of a work of superior or even equal value." — .\bridged from The Spect-^tor. M'CULLOCH -A DICTIONARY, GEOGRAPHICAL, STATIS- TICAL, AND HISTORICAL, of the various Countries, Places, and Principal Natural Objects in the WORLD. By J. R. ai'CuLLOCH, Esq. 2 thick vols. Svo. illustrated with Six Large important Maps, sCi. cloth. " The eitentof information this Dictionary affords on the subjects referred to in its title is truly surprising. It cannot fail to pro\e a vade-mecum to the student, whose inquiries will be guided by its light, and satisfied by its clear and frequently elaborated communications. Every public room in which commerce, politics, or literature, forms the subject of discussion, ought to be furnished with these volumes." — GtobE. MALTE-BRUN.-A SYSTEM OE UNIVERSAL GEOGRAPHY, Founded on the Works of M.\ltk-Brun and I?aliu, eiijbraciii;^- an Historii al Skitcli of the Procrress of Geographical Discovery, the Principles of Mathematical and Physical (jieot;rapliy, and a complete Description, from the most recent sources, of t!ie Political anil Social Condition of all the Countries in the \Vi rid : with numerous Statistical Tables. 8vo. 30s. cloth. MARCET.-CONVERSATIONS ON CHEMISTRY; In which the Elements of that Science are familiarly ICxplained and Illustrated by Experiments. 14th Eilition, enlaif^ed and corrected. 2 vols. fcp. Svo. 14s. cloth. MARCET.-CONVERSATIONS ON NATURAL PHILOSOPHY; In which the Elements of that Science are familiarly e.xplained, and adapted to the compre- hension of Young- Persuiis. 10th Edition, enlarged and corrected by the Author. Fcp. svo. with 23 Plates, 10s. Gd cioth. Of the General Proj-,ertie.s of Bodies; the Attraction of Gravity ; the Laws of .Motion ; Compound Motion; the -Mechanical Powers; Astronomy; Causes ot the Earth's Motion; the "lanets ; the Earth; the Moon; Hydrostatics; the Mechanical Properties of Fluids; of SpriiiL;s, Fonntains, &c. ; Piieuiuatics ; the Mechanical Properties of Air ; on Wind and Sound ; t)|)tics; the Visual Angle and the Rellection of Mirrors ; ou Refraction and Colours ; on the Structure of the Eye, and Optical Instruments. MARCET.-CONVERSATIONS ON POLITICAL ECONOMY; In which the Eleineiits of that Science are familiarly explained. 7th Edition revised and enlarged. Fcp. Svo. 7s. 6d. cloth. Introdnction; on Property; the Division of Labour; on Capital; on Wage.s and Population ; on the Condition of the Poor; on Value and Price; on Income; Income from Landed Property ; Income from the Cultivation of Land ; Income troiii Capital lent ; on Money ; on Commerce ; on Foreign Trade ; on E.vpeiiditure and Consumption. MARCET.-CONVERSATIONS ON VEGETABLE PHYSIO- LOGY; comprehending the Elements of liotany, with their api)lication to Agriculture. 3d Edition. F'cp. Svo. with 4 Plates, Ds. cloth. Introduction; on Roots; on Stems; on Leaves; on Sap; on Cambium and the peculiar .luices of Plants; on the .Action of Light and Heat on Plants; on the .Valiirali/.ation of Plants; on the Action of the Atniosplirre on Plants; on the Action of Water on Plants; on the Artilicial Mode of Watering Plants ; on the Action of the Soil mi Plants ; on the Propagation of Plants by Subdivision ; on Grafting ; on the Multiiilication of Plants by Seed ; the Flower ; on Com- pound Flowers ; on Fruit; on the Seed ; on the Classiiication of Plants ; on Artilicial Systems ; on the Natural System; Botanical Geography; the Inlhience of (.'ii.tiire on Vegetation; on the Degeneration' and Diseases of Plants; on the Cultivation of Trees; on the Cultivation of Phiiits which iirodiice Fernienled Liijuors ; on the (-'ulti\ation of Grasses, Tuberous Roots, and Griiin ; on Oletiginous I'lants and Culinary Vegetables. MAIICET.-CONYERSATIONS FOR CHILDREN ; On Lanii and Water. 2(1 Kdition, revised and corrected. l'"cp. 8vo. with coloured Maps, sliovvinsr the comparative altitude of Mountains, 5s. 6d. cloth. "This is so f.ir superior to tlii> u>.ual class of mo.k-in Ijooks, in which it is thought necfssary to giro instruction u MA^CE^-COnVeRSATI^ bN^LvKGUAGEr For Cliildren. By Mrs. Marcet, Author of *' Mary's Grammar," " Conversations on Che- iiiistrxs" &c. 18mo. 4s. 6(1. cloth. "In tli.'M' rniivii>;itinns Mrs. Wairet travels over a ffreat deal of ground, with her wonteil skill in adaptint; know- Ifdiir tn till ■ 1 ; 1 I .' tin- yo\m^. The nature of artirulatc sounds, ami the origans of spi-ech, the history ol'm;inknid to ini!ir;it. t ^ i, ni'dijl'erfnt languages, the manner in which English has b^en indi-hted to Latin, the pro- balilt or pn~ I |. ,11,^1 linguage, and tlie use of cognomeus aud uunaus, are all familiarly displayed in this iiistiuc- MARCET -AVILLY'S GRAMMAR ; Interspersed witli Stories, and intended for the Use of Boys. By Mrs. Marcet, Author of " Alary's Grammar," &c. 18mo. 2s. 6d. cloth. •' A FouuJ and simple work for the earliest a^es." — Quartekly Review (of '* Mary's Grammar"^. MARCET.-TIIE GAME OF GRAMMAR, With a Hook of Conversations shewing- the Rules of the Game, and affonline: Examples of the manner of playinj? at it. In a varnished box, or done up as a post 8vo. volume in cloth, 8s. MARCET.-LESSONS ON ANIMALS, VEGETABLES, AND MINERALS. By Mrs. Marcet, Author of " Conversations on Chemistry," &c. 12mo. 2s. cl. 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Germ. Hanov. ; Mulii. &c. &c. 3d Edition, corrected. Svo. illustrated with 1240 Engravings on Wood, 50s. cloth. URE.-RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN ARTS, MANUFAC- TURKS, and MINKS; beinic a Sui)pleii;eiit to his Dictionary. By Andkeav Uiiii, M.D. r.ll.S. &c, Svo. with iiunierons wood Engravings, 14s. cloth, " The great progress which our arts and manufacture's have made within the few years since the publication of Dr. Ure's ccluhrate-i! Dictionary-at once tlic ablest and mt.sl jx-puli-r ^^in^k uf iW Vim] ^^lli^h ever w;is xvrittni— lias furnished anijil'' iiniii .,il. Inr the present most acceptablead.llMMii I, . ii , .unl wc.n. li'i';',' '^'-i^ tl,,ir ;l,r ,m'l,,,i i^is made the bt-^f i - -i' - i > nt them. The practice of every l-i . i i > i , : , . t. ■ :■.--{ cxifitin^ stiitt , I l.r Hi,; M . I i!,(nl-> introduced are clearly st;ii - . r i , , ■ i v ; , , i u and sagacity. M u> i. t,, tir denvid fium private sources, to which he has had exclusive access." — MKCHANlCb' Mauahink. YON ORLICH (CAPT.) -TRAVELS IN INDIA; Inchidiiif^-Scincloand tlic l^injub,in 1842 and lS4o. Hy ('apt. Lko polo Vtjx Orlich. Translated from theGornina, by Jl. Evans Lloyd, lisq. 2 vols. Svo. with coloured Frontispieces, and numerous Illustrations on Wood, 25s. cloth. '* The subjects or topics of ("apt. Von Orlich's volumes embrace the outward and homeward voyage by Eg^ypt and the Red Sea; ttombay ; an ascent of the Indus, with remarks upon the country adjoining; its banks'; the grand doin^^t of the Go\ernor-Genei'al (Lorl EllenborouijhJ in his procuresses and recei)tion»; an embaysy of ceremony to the court of Lahore; and a return joxu-ney to Calcuttu, through Uelhi, Agra, and Cawnpoor^ with an episodical Visit to Lucknow, the capital of the Kini^ of Oude. 'J'hc route is not new in itself; but Vou Urhch has some qualifi- cations adapted to f^ive iharacter to obseivation. The ei)iriled woodcuts intersj*erM-d throujjh the pa;>e^. ol the volumes shew an arlistical .-ye as well as a facile pencil. The correspondence with Ilumhuldt ttci ulmm, and In Carl Rilli-r, the lelteis U.rmin- the work are addressed) indicate scieuLific tastes and acquii. mcnts ; ;.nd, what i» mm.' tn the puriio-c, the httirs (hemselvcrf are rapid, lively, and well stored with matter. \\v think that the de^i ripliuns ul* \on<)rlich ((mvcy a better idt a of Indian life in camp, or on the journey, than other accaunts we have met wilh. Captain Von Orlich is also an observer of native life, of the natural and artificial features of the country, and of the character and effects of the Indian government. Upon these loj>ic8 his remarks arc curious and mtcresting." Sr£CTATOR. WALKER (GEO.)-CIIESS STUDIES; ('oiiij)risiiii^ One 'I'housand Ciiiiiii's nf Chess, as really played by the first Chess Players ; fonninti: a coiiii)lete Kncyclopiedia of Ucleruiice, and iircsenting the si cutest Collection extant of tine specimens oi' strategy in every staj^e of the Game. Selected and urraiiH:ed hy Ghouoic Walkeu, Authorof" Chess made liasy," " A NewTreatise on Chess," &c. Svo. 10s. '6d. sewed. 32 CATALOGUE OF NEW WORKS PRINTED FOU LONGMAN AND CO. WARDLAW -DISCOURSES ON THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OV THK SOCINIAX CONTKOVE KSY— the Unity of God, and the Trinity of Persons in tlie Godhead ; the Supreme Divinity of Jesus C'hrist ; the Doctrine of the Atonement ; the Christian Cliaracter, &c. By Ralph Wardlaw, D.D. 5th Edition, Svo. 15s. cloth. WATERTON.-ESSAYS ON NATURAL HISTORY, Chiefly Ornithology. DyCHAULEs Wateuton, Esq., Author of " M'anderin In -ur]i.i>M-,l l,v that of the successful author. In taking leave of her unique and iiitii. sting lirmk, we express our roi dial bu[pe that it will tiud its way to tlie toilette of every tilled and untitled lady in WRIGHT (THOMTsr'- THE HISTORY OF SOCIETY IN ENGLAND during the MIDDLE AGES, By Thomas Wright, Esq. M.A. F.S.A. Corres- ponding Member of the Institute of France. 2 vols. Svo. [/« //"• press. juj;\mii 3i»' ^ 4 =o 3 ^OFCALIFO/?^ .vVlOSANCElfj> ■^a3AINn-]WV '"a ^ •.G[Lf/^ (^^ ^.OFCALIFOfiV S iO-^ L 005 1 17 001 7 jNv-so\^ ^/^aaAiN[V3v\v ^(JAavdiiii-^^ K^mFr, UC SOUTHERN REGIONAL LIBRARY FACILITY AA 001 171421 9 ^;?.v/; .\^ ^ox.. M' v: '^OM :UJiiyj-du-' ■Jili'JNViiUl-^' i.JNilJU^ c^^-UBRARYOc^ A\^FUNIVER.V/; >i UNIVER?//;, ^aOS-ANGflfj.;>. ^j,OFfAllF0% ^^OF-CAl!F0% ^^WFUM!VER.9^; AlNfl-3WV i\\V %• \