- \ \> UN A Publication of The College of Agriculture IVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CANNED APRICOTS REVISED ANALYSIS OF F.O.B. PRICE RELATIONSHIPS Sidney Hoos and R.D.ApMn UNIVERSITY OF CAL DAVIS ORNIA I9i3 APR 3 l:brar CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION GIANNINI FOUNDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Mimeographed Report No. 147 March 1953 CAN^TED APRICOTS— REVISED ANALYSIS OF F.O.B. PRICE REIATIOMSHIPS by 1/ 2/ Sidney Hoos- and R. D. Aplin- Contents Page Introduction , «... 1 Data 1 Results * * k k Note 5 Table 1. F.O.B. Prices of Canned California Apricots and Related . . Economic Variables from 192U-25 ....... 7 Table 2. Actual and Estimated F.O.B. Prices of California Canned Apricots, Average All Grades and Sizes from 1926-27 .... 9 Table 3. F.O.B. Prices of Canned Fruits from 19214-25 ........ 10 Table U. Construction of Revised Index of Prices of , Canned Fruits , Competing with Canned Apricots from 192l|.-25 • 12 Table 5. Canners' Domestic Shipments of Canned Fruits from 192Ur25 » lU Table 6, Canners* Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Cali- fornia Canned Cling Peaches from l'^2U-25 ......... 16 Table 7. Canners' Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Pacific Coast Canned Pears from 192U-25 .... 18 Table 8. Canners' Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Cali- fornia Canned Apricots from 192U-25 20 Table 9. Canners' Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Cali- fornia Canned Freestone Peaches from 192h-2S 22 Table 10. Canners' Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Canned Fruit Cocktail from 1936-37 23 Table 11. Index of Competing Canned Fruit Prices Adjusted by United States Nonagri cultural Income and Canners' Carry-Overs of Apricots as Per Cent of Shipments from 192U-25 ...... 2h Table 12. Canned Apricots, Multiple Regression (Least Squares) Equations and Auxiliary Constants (1926-27 to 1951-^2 Excluding 19hO-i|l to 19U6-U7) 26 1/ Professor of Agricultural Economics and Economist in the Experiment Station and on the Giannini Foundation. 2/ Research Assistant on the Giannini Foundstion. CAMMED APRICOTS—REVISED ANALYSIS OF F.O.B. PRICE .RELATIONSHIPS Sidney Hoos and R. D. Aplin INTRODUCTION Apricots are one of the major canned fruits produced in California and help to make the state the leading producer of canned fruits. Along with canned peaches, cling and free, and with canned pears and canned fruit cocktail, the growing and canning of apricots comprise an important agricultural undertaking. To provide growers, canners, distributors, and purchasers with economic information, reports have been issued shortly before the opening of the new marketing year. The reports have been used by individuals, groups, and govern- ment agencies. In order to provide the canned fruit industry with market in- formation, the economic-statistical analyses of the f.o.b. prices of canned apricots were revised periodically. Revisions at times were minor, and at other times, more significant. The intent was to make available the most re- cent analysis that the current circumstances and available information permitted. DATA The objective of this report is to introduce major revisions in the eco- nomic-statistical analysis of factors affecting the f.o.b. prices of canned apricots. Developments in the canned fruit industries call for their adequate reflection in the analysis, and research for and with market information has made it possible now to introduce appropriate changes in the analysis. Thus, in a sense the economic-statistical analysis is brought more in line with cur- rent needs. The market information developed v/ith the use of the report thereby may be put on a firmer basis, 1/ The latest issue in the aeries is Sidney Hoos, "Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Apricots, 192U-25 to 1951-52," August, 1952. (Calif. Agr. Exp. Sta, Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 133) 2. The revisions introduced may be briefly indicated as follows: the index of competing canned fruit prices has been broadened by adding canned fruit cock- tail and canned freestone peaches; the relative weights applied to prices in the index of competing canned fruit prices have been revised to reflect the current relative importance of the various canned fruits j the index of United States nonagricultural income has been replaced by an index of the United States dis- posable income; and the base periods for the indexes of competing canned fruit prices and income have been shifted from 1935-1939 to 19l47-19li9. The index of competing canned fruit prices has been broadened by adding canned freestone peaches and canned fruit cocktail to the three fruits previ- ously included in the index, canned cling peaches, canned pears, and canned pineapple. The base period of the index has been shifted from the 193^-1939 period to that of 19U7-19U9. This shift in base period from the prewar to re- cent postwar years is in line with current developments in other index numbers and has already been introduced in various statistical series issued by the fed- eral government. In addition, the prices of the canned fruit in the index have been given new weights, reflecting the relative importance of the individual fruits as measured by their annual shipments. It may be noted that these changes in the index make it more acceptable in the sense that it reflects current de- velopments. Another change introduced concerns the measurement of national income re- flected in the analysis. In the reports issued during the recent postwar years, an index of United States nonagricultural income, with the average for 1935- 1?39 = 100, was used. For the years beginning with 1929-30, that index novr has been replaced by an index of United States disposable personal income, with the average for 19h7-l'5[i9 as the base. The disposable income is derived from per- sonal income by adjusting for tax obligations. The new base period was intro- duced for the same reason as noted above for the price index of competing canned •j . T • . • ■ ■ ■ ••'tTtvyfj. 3» fruits. It is deemed desirable to introduce the new index since many users of the report use disposable income figures in review of the market situation* Thus, the inclusion of disposable income in the analysis should help to coordi- nate it with the other income information used by the industry. During the latter half of the 1930 's and also during the postwar years, fruit cocktail developed and then maintained a significant position as one of the major canned fruit items. The expansion in the production and sale of canned fruit cocktail emphasized the need for inclusion of its price in the in- dex of competing canned prices. This was not done earlier since appropriate price data for canned fruit cocktail were not available. More adequate data have now "been compiled and analyzed. Accordingly, fruit cocktail has been introduced into the index beginning with the year 1936-37; adequate price data for earlier years are not available. The absence of fruit cocktail from the index for the years prior to 1936-37 does not impose a serious limitation, hovf- ever, since in those years the volume of canned fruit cocktail was relatively less significant. Although canned freestone peaches are not packed in as large volume as are canned cling peaches, there is evidence that competitive demand relations exist 2/ between canned freestone and canned clingstone peaches.- The new index of com- peting canned fruit prices includes canned freestone peaches beginning with the year 19U0-[il; earlier years were not included because of the unavailability of appropriate price data. The price data used for canned freestone peaches are f.o.b. prices of California Elberta peaches which are the most important variety of canned freestone peaches in recent years. Comparable price data for Cali- fornia Elbertas are not available for earlier years. Price data during those earlier years are available for canned Lovells, the most important variety of 2/ Hoos, Sidney, and W. G. 0' Regan. "Statistical Analyses of Competitive Relations Betvreen Canned Clingstone and Canned Freestone Peaches." I9I4.9. (Calif. Agr. Exp, Sta, ) ; 'in: V V'!'' V. s^rotrjt'* '.! i ,■ ■ ' ■ . ■■ - ' .... ■ . • ; ^ freestones then canned. Since Elbertas are the canned freestone of most impor- tance now, the Elberta prices were used for freestone peaches during the postvfar years. The statistical data used in the report are given in complete detail in the appended tables. The footnotes to the tables explain the sources of the data and how the various series were constructed. But here it is pertinent to note that the price data for canned cling peaches, canned apricots, and canned pears, as well as the postwar data for canned fruit cocktail, are industry aver- age prices reflecting actual experience of the canneries as reported to the Cling Peach Advisory Board or its preceding and associated agencies. The price data for canned fruit cocktail in the prewar years, canned freestone peaches, and canned pineapple reflect published quotations supplemented by trade informa- tion^ Comparative checks of those published data suggest that they are appro- priate for use in the analysis in the sense that their year-to-year changes are indicative of the market price behavior, RESULTS Using the revised data indicated above and shovm in more detail in the appended tables, the economic-statistical analysis was revised. Various formu- lations of the relations between the f,o.b. prices of canned apricots and the various market factors related to them were considered. The results of some of these formulations are summarized in Table 12, Careful consideration of the various sets of resiilts, giving attention to the combined views of economics, statistics, and marketing — as well as practical problems in the use of the re- sults — suggests the presentation of the formulation whose results are described below; that formulation not only compares very favorably with others, but also has the advantage that it carries on the general understanding developed in the industry in recent years. 3 5. The results of the revised analysis selected for presentation may be sum- marized as follows, indicating the average market relations prevailing during the period analyzed (equation 7, Table 12), A change of 1,000,000 cases (2h No. 2| basis) in the domestic movement of California canned apricots, with both United States disposable income and com- peting canned fruit prices held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the opposite direction of about hh cents a case in the f.o.b. price (average all grades and sizes) of canned apricots. An increase of 10 per cent in the index of United States disposable income, with both the domestic movement of California canned apricots and the prices of competing canned fruits held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the same direction of about 30 cents a case in the f.Oob. price (average all grades and sizes) of California canned apricots, A change of ten points in the index of prices of competing canned fruits, with both the domestic movement of California canned apricots and United States disposable income held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the same direction of about 18 cents a case in the f.o.b. price (average all grades and sizes) of canned apricots. The above average price relationships are summarized in this preliminary report at this time so as to provide a convenient background fcr the canned apricot industry in its discussions preparatory to the 19$3-5U season. As the current season comes to a close and market data reflecting its experience become available, another report including the data for 1952-53 will be developed. That report, it is presently intended, will include a price analysis developed along the same general lines as the one here summarized. NOTE The formulations of price relationships summarized in Table 12 include the results of some experiments with variables not explicitly referred to in the 6. above comments. Such variables include canners' carry-over at the beginning of the current season and in terms of its level in relation to the current season's shipments as well as in relation to the just-past season's shipments. Other formulations continue the inclusion of United States nonagricultural income but with the new base period of 19k7-19h9, rather than introducing the index of United States disposable income. Another variation replaces the index of com- peting canned fruit prices with an index of competing canned fruit shipments to reflect the impact of the market situations in canned fruits other than canned apricots. A detailed comparative analysis of these various formulations is not intended here. It may be noted, however, that in terms of application and utility in projection the formulation whose price relationships are sum- marized above compares favorably with the other formulations and has the advantage of being related to a hypothesis of market price behavior which is generally familiar to the industry. Yet, continued development of and ex- perimentation with various formulations is intended so as to approach one which is adequately acceptable from the combined views of economics, statistics, and marketing. i i ■ ■OP 1 1 mBLE 1 F.O.B. Prices of Canned California Apricots and Related Economic Variables from 1924-25 F.o.b. prices of Index of canned California Domestic movement Index of iiarketing year. apricots (averase all of California United States competing canned June through ilay trades ana sizes) canned apricots disposable income fruit prices 1 2 1 3 4 thousands of cases — dollars per case 24 No. si" basis 1947-1949 = 100 1924-25 3.91 1,235 252,9 1925-26 3.72 1,755 37.5 201.4 19 26 - 27 3.85 2,038 oo • o 1927-28 3.97 1,779 38.6 172,9 1928-29 3.67 2,195 40.1 169.1 1929-30 3,97 2,259 41,7 193,8 1930-31 3.32 2,183 36.5 170.4 2,64 ■ 1,541 29.6 170,5 1932-33 2. 23 1,521 . o 178,5 1933-34 c, O ( 2 03A 25,9 201.6 1934-35 3.47 1,477 29,3 189.5 1935-36 2.93 1,951 33.2 162,3 1936-37 2.75 2,992 36.7 151,6 1937-38 3.02 2,901 36.5 165,6 1938-39 2,55 2,562 36,3 138,7 iyoy-4u 9 77 2,640 38.7 143.3 1940-41 3.23 2^012 43,8 121.6 (VJar years) 1947-48 5,20 2,415 95,6 107.2 1948-49 4.55 3,528 102,1 105,5 1949-50 4.11 3,072 102.3 87,8 1950-51 4,83 3,566 116,4 92.3 1951-52 5,29 3,374 123.0 88.1 (Continued on next page.) I ■ " ■ " •—• ■■■! Table 1 continued. Sources: Col. 1: Table 3, col. 2. Col. 2: Table 5, column 2. Col. 3: Table 4, column 4. Col. 4: For sources and method of construction, see Table 4. 9. TABIE 2 Actual and Estimated F.O.B. Prices of California Canned Apricots, Average All Grades and Sizes from 1926-27 Marketing year, June through May Actual price Estimated price Difference: column 1 minus column 2 Column 3 j as j per cent of column 1 \ 1 2 3 h 1 dollars per case 1 . car cent ' 1926-27 3.85 3.95 -.10 - 2.6 1 007 oR All U.J ! 1928-29 3.67 3.51 .16 1929-30 3.97 J4.O6 -.09 - 2.3 1930-31 . 3.32 3.2U 0O8 2.U 1931-32 2.6ii 2.87 -.23 - 8.7 1932-33 2.23 2.U6 -.23 -10o3 I I933-3U 2.37 2.80 -.Ii3 -18.1 j 193l-t-35 3*1x1 3.21 .26 7.5 1935-36 2.93 2.90 .03 1.0 1936-37 2.75 2.56 .19 6.9 1937-38 , 3.02 2.8U .18 6.0 1938-39 . 2.55 2. 18 .07 2,7 1939-hO 2.77 2.73 .OU l.U (War years) 19)47-ii8 5.20 5.02 .18 3.5 I9I18-U9 h.55 It.71 -.16 - 3.5 19li9-50 U.ii U.59 -.U8 -11.7 1950- 51^/ 1951- 52-'^ 1;.83 U.87 -.Oh - 0.8 5.29 5.05 .2k it.5 a/ Preliminary. Sources: Col. It From Table 3} column 2. Col. 2j Estimated by equation 7, Table 12. Col. 3: Column 1 minus column 2. Col. ]xi Column 3 as per cent of column 1, TABLE 3 F.O.B. Prices of Canned Fruits from 1924-25 t California raciiic uoast j California California apricots pears ; freestone California aava 1 lan p ine - Marketing cling (average all (average all peaches ! fruit cock- apple (sliced year, June peaches grades and grades and (,iiiXDerta ! uaix lancy, c.-.^ i.o.u. through May \,cncice £1-2/ sizes) sizes) cnoice c.^,) i (choice 2^7) C; 0'\ v-\ "V* v\ A -1 A 1 Dan rrancisco^ 1 3 4 ! 5 D dollars per case 1924—25 4. (2 3.91 ? .eL\J 1925-20 4.23 3 .72 k 1920-27 4 .10 0 Ai; 3 .05 4.3X k 70 ly2 f "20 3.45 3.9 f . DU k pn 1920-29 3-50 3.b f k 1 ^ 4 .Xj 4 kn 1929-30 4.57 3.91 k Ao k 7n 1930-31 3 -20 3 02 3 • ?3 k nn 1931-32 2.80 2.64 2.82 3.00 1932-33 2.15 2.23 2.48 3.10 1933-34 2.49 2.37 2.64 3.60 1934-35 2.88 3.47 3.05 3.60 -Lyj;?- JO 2 66 ? 2 92 3 .60 -Ly^jo- J ( ? 7Q ? 75 ^ • 1 ^ 2 92 3.90 3.60 J-Vj ( - jo 0 .XX 'K 07 4.00 3.80 9 U4 ? 77 3 .40 3 .40 1939-40 2.56 2.77 3.27 3.75 3.60 1940-41 2.43 3.23 3.06 3.20 3.35 3.60 (War years) 191^7.48 4.78 5.20 7.07 5.60 6.90 6.10 191^8-49 5.10 4.55 7.37 6.10 6.65 6.80 1949-50 4.07 4.11 5.15 5.08 5.70 6.40 1950-51 5.17 4.83 6.90 6.10 6.65 6.80 1951-52 5.53 5.29 6.40 6.20 6.68 6.80 ; (Continued on next page.) i .^fei.a^;- .:. , Table 3 continued. Sources: Col, 1: Based on data compiled by the Cling Peach Advisory Board from reports by California canners as reported in Sidney Hoos, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Clingstone Peaches, 1924-25 to 1951-52. July, 1952. (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 132) Col. 2: Compiled by Cling Peach Advisory Board from reports by canners as reported in Sidney Hoos, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Apricots, 1926-27 to 1951-52. July, 1952. (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 133) For years 192^-25, 1925-26, and I9I+O-UI, from Sidney Hoos and Irving Dubov, Indexes of Competing Canned Fruit Prices. October, 19^9. (Giannini Foundation Report) Col. 3: Compiled from canner reports by Canners League of California and Northwest Canners Association as reported in Sidney Hoos, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Pears, 1926-2? to 1951-52. July, 1952. (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 135) For years 1924-25> 1925-26, and 19^+0-^4-1, from Sidney Hoos and Irving Dubov, Indexes of Competing Canned Fruit Prices. October, 1949- (Giannini Foundation Report) Col. k: California Fruit News, supplemented by trade information. Col. 5: Years from 1936-37 to 19^+0-41, published quotations from California Fruit News. Years from 19^4-7-1+8 to 195I-52, based on information compiled by the Cling Peach Advisory Board from canners reports. Col. 6: Hoos, Sidney, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Clingstone Peaches, 1924-25 to 1951-52. July, 1952. (Giannini Foundation Mimeo- graphed Report No. I32) TABLE 4 Construction of Revised Index of Prices of Canned Fruits Coinpeting v.dth Canned Apricots from 1924-25 Marketing year, J ion e through Hay 1924- 25 1925- 26 1926- 27 1927- 28 1928- 29 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 34 1934- 35 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1939- 40 1940- 41 (Ylar years) 1947- 48 1948- 49 1949- 50 1950- 51 1951- 5 2 •eighted average prices oi competing canned fruits United States d i sposable income dollars relatives. per case il947-1949 =100 5.0336 4.3569 4.3691 3.8495 3.9113 4.6609 3.5869 2.9122 2,5539 3,0120 3.2024 3,1074 3.2095 3.4865 2.9053 3.1995 3,0718 5,9102 6,2155 5.1803 6.1943 6.2511 87.26 75.53 75,74 66.73 67.80 80,80 82,18 50.47 44.27 52.21 55.51 53.87 55.64 60.44 50.36 55,46 53.25 102.45 107,75 89.80 107.38 108.36 billions of dollars 64.6 70.1 71.7 72,3 75.1 78.1 68.4 55.4 46.5 48,4 54.8 62.1 68.6 68,3 67.9 72.4 82.0 178.9 19ia 191.5 217r8 230.2 i Revised index of competing j canne d fruit prices ^ I 5 index, 1947-1949 = 100 34.5 37.5 38.3 58.6 40,1 41.7 36.5 29.6 24,8 25,9 29,3 33.2 36.7 36.5 36.3 38.7 43,8 95,6 102.1 102.3 116,4 123,0 252,9 201.4 197.8 172.9 169.1 193.8 170.4 170.5 178.5 201.6 189.5 162.3 151.6 165.6 138.7 143.3 121.6 107,2 105,5 87.8 92.3 88.1 (Continued on next page.) Table 4 continued. Sources: i*ce s • Col.'l: Canned fruit (other than apricots) prices vreighted by their corresponding shipments. F.o.b prices (other than apricots) given in Table 3 v/eighted by corresponding domestic shipments given in Table 5. Col. 2: Figures in column 1 expressed as percentages -with 1947-19i9 = 100. Col. 3: Based on income data published in U. S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business from 1924-25 to 1928-29, U. S, Nonagri cultural Income, from 1929-50 to 1951-52, U, S. Disposable Personal Income. Col. 4: Figures in column 3 expressed as percentages vd.th 1947-1949 = 100. Col. 5j Column 2 as per cent of column 4, TABLE 5 Carjiers' Domestic Shipments of Canned Fruits from 1924-85 Ma y*Vp "hi n cr Total, excluding JliT' 0 California Pacific California Cali fornia Cali fornia clin't Cali fornia Coast freestone fruit canned peaches apricots pears peaches cocktail Pineapplefy Total apricots 1 2 3 4 5 b 7 8 thousands of cases — 24 No. 2^ basis 1924-25 1 y C.OD 6,611 13,467 12,232 lc)25-26 7,484 1,755 1,293 6,611 17,143 15,388 1926-27 8,599 2,038 1,957 7,465 20,059 18,021 X ;i / — Ct) 10,867 1,779 1,637 P F.Ci 9? RRfi ?1 107 10,490 2, iy b c, 1. lU 7,876 22,731 20, 536 7 >4o«5 ii, (sDy xoo 9 617 8,994 23,051 20,868 1 931-3? O yV ( 0 9,525 19,032 17,491 1932-33 8,148 1,521 2,200 6,270 18,139 16,618 1933-34 7,415 2,034 2,767 R "^97 1 R '^09 7,685 1,477 2,984 7,500 19,646 18,169 1935-36 8,452 1,951 2,670 8,600 21,673 19,722 1936-37 9,358 2,992 3,997 1,450 10,400 28,197 25,205 1937-38 6,854 2,901 2,681 1,589 9,100 23,125 20 , 224 1938-39 10,127 2,562 3,114 2,070 8,200 26,073 23,511 1939-40 8,673 2,640 2,768 2,151 10,100 26,332 23,692 1940-41 ll,4o3 2,012 4,150 1,233 4,448 11,500 34,776 32,764 (l/ar years) 1947-48 13,843 2,415 4,866 1,291 8,770 10,100 41,285 38,870 1948-49 12,382 3,528 3,660 1,690 6,732 11 , 500 39,492 35,964 1949-50 15,649 3,072 5,613 1,493 7,021 11,900 44,948 41,876 1950-51 14,305 3,566 4,815 1,396 8,003 12,400 44,985 41,419 1951-52 13,402 3,374 4,354 2,471 6,448 11 , 500 41,549 38,175 a/ Packers' and importers' shipments for domestic civilian consumption. (Continued on next page.) v. • , . • ■ . ^ ■* * T i »' * 1 ■ -■ . ■ - ■ ' : * ■■ .- ..'■"'.'•* -'fj 1 ■ 1 ■ '*" ij' f 1 1 ■ » Table £ continued. Sources : Col. 1: Column 7, Table 6, Col. 2: Column 7, Table 8, Col, 3: Column 7, Table 7. Col. 4: Column 5, Table 9, Col. 5: Gol\iiim 8, Table 10, Col. 6: For years 1924-25 and 1925-26, averages of the corresponding two-year packs compiled by Pineapple Growers Association of Hav/aii as reported by trade sources. For years 1926-27 through 1933-34 from H. R. Yfellman, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.E. Prices of California Canned Apricots, 1926-27 to 1936-37. June, 1937. (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report Ho, 60) Figures are shipments from Hawaii to United States for July through June and converted at 55 pounds per case. For years 1934-35 through 1949-50, U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Packers' and Importers' Shipments for Domestic Civilian Consumption, Fruit and Vegetable Canning Industries, 1934-35. Industrial Series IIo. 15 and U. S, Department of Com^ierce, Office of Industry and Commerce, Canned Fruits and Vegetables Industrj^ Reports, from Pineapple Growers Association of Haimii, (Bulletin No, 207) For years 1950-51 and 1951-52 as compiled from trade sources. Col. 7: Sum of columns 1 through 6. Col. 8: Colum 7 minus column 2., 16. TABLE 6 Canners* Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of California Canned Cling Peaches from 192^-25 Marketing year, June through May 1 . Pack Canners ' stocks on hand at beginning of year Total supply Canners ' stocks on hand at end of year Total movement from canners ' hands United States exports Domestic movement 1 2 3 I4 5 6 7 thousands of cases — 2U No. 2-5- basis 192lj-25 1925- 26 1926- 27 1927- 28 1928- 29 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 3ii 193)4-35 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1939- i40 19l:i0-Ul 10,h99 ll4,U39 7,12k 13,17i4 8,3it9 6,Uli4 10,2Uh 8,258 10,850 10,236 12,205 9,Uli6 10,579 9,608 1,391 709 hh9 3,730 1,322 3,109 1,629 3,922 U,826 1,359 2,389 1,836 1,929 l,li98 5,578 2,737 2,690 111, 229 15,761 10,833 lit, 803 12,271 11, 2U0 11,603 10,6ii7 12,686 12,165 13,703 15,021| 13,316 12,299 709 kh9 3,730 1,322 3,109 1,629 3,922 li,826 1,359 2,389 1,836 1,929 1,1498 5,578 2,737 2,690 779 12,907 12,652 9,20ii 10,881 7,l4l45 9,881 9,21l4 8,811 10,757 10,667 8,125 . 12,287 10,626 11,520 2,0li0 2,162 1,721 1,62)4 1,1469 1,733 1,799 1,126 2,305 1,309 1,271 2,160 1,953 87 14,607 7,14814 8,599 10,867 10,U90 7,1483 9,257 5,976 8,1U8 7,i4l5 7,685 8,1452 9,358 6,851i 10,127 8,673 11,1433 (War years) 19)^7-U8 I9I18-I49 19i49-50 1950- 51 1951- 52 15,309 111, 650 16,525 lli.,lii7 I9,lii5 i ii56 1,2U7 3,061 2,058 531 15,765 15,897 19,585 16,1475 19,676 1,2U7 3,061 2,058 531 3,lil8 1)4,518 12,836 / 16,332^^ ll4,77l|^ 13,81i2-/ 675 .I45I4 U83 I466 I4U0 13,8143 12,382 15,8)49 114,305 13,1402 a/ Excludes government school lunch purchases of 865,000 cases in June, 19[i9- March, 1950, and an additional 331,000 cases in April, 1950. If school lunch purchases were included, total movement would he 17,528,219 cases. b/ Excludes government purchases of 1,172,766 cases. If government purchases were included, total movement would be 15,9U3,675 cases. c/ Excludes government purchases of 2,^16,000 cases (1,970,000 Quartermaster and U46,000 school lunch). If government purchases were included, total movement would be 16, 258,UOO cases. (Continued on next page, ) 17. Table 6 continued. Sources: Cols. 1, 2, and kt CoL. 3: Col. 5: Col. 6; Col. ?.: Canners League of California as reported in Sidney Hoos and J. M, Boles, Selected Statistics on California Cling- stone Peaches for the 1952 Canning Season. July, 19$2-, (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report ) Column 1 plus column 2. Column 3 minus column k» TI. S. Department of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States as reported in Sidney Hoos, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Canned Clingstone Peaches, 192U-25 to 1951-52. July, 1952c (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No-. 132) All exports are considered to be clings since no breakdown between clings and frees is available. Column 5 minus column 6. For years 192li-25> 1925-26, and 1926-27, see Sidney Hoos and lining Dubbv, Indexes of Com- peting Canned Fruit Prices. October, 19^9. (Giannini Foundation Report) Compiled by Canners League of Cali- fornia and Cling Peach Advisory Board. I 18. TABLE 7 Canners' Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Pacific Coast Canned Pears from 19214-25 Marketing Canners ' Total J. \J vCL J. 1 year. SoocKS on Canners • m n VPTTI p rfh. lii'U V due- l-Lv June nanu ax stocks on from United through beginning Total hand at States Domestic May Pack 01 year supply end of year "h a nH Q inovement c. 3 h < 6 7 thousands of cases- basis 192li-25 1U2 51 i,oiU 1925-26 51 507 -L, uuy 1,293 1926-27 3,260 507 3,767 Uoi 3, 300 1.637 T Q07 oft 3,0U0 167 2.873 1.236 1 OOP, OQ li U, -LJ-O XU f U,283 292 3,991 3.5U6 1,821 1,163 2,170 2,383 ?9? U,U98 952 9 j 19[i9-50 5,U59 761 6,220 UU8 5,772 159 1950-51 6,Ol;8 6,i;96 566 5,930 215 1951-52 6,215 566 6,781 1,575 ! 5,206 95 1 a/ Excludes 900, 5h9 cases in 1950-51 and 758,000 cases in 1951-52 purchased by U. S. Defense Department fQuart-.nnaEtor Corps). If Quartermaster purchases were included, domestic shipments would amount to 5,715,000 cases in 1950-51 and 5,111,679 cases in 1951-52. (Continued on next page.) i . ■■■ i'. ■•V ••.1 ' ■ ■ , • I- . . . • . ' ■ . V ■ 19. Table 7 continued^ Sources: As reported in Sidney Hoos, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Pears, 1926-2? to 1951-^2. July, 1952, (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 135) Cols. 1, 2, and I4: Compiled from reports of Canners League of California and Northwest Canners Association. Col. 3s Column 1 plus column 2, Col. 5: Column 3 minus column Col. 6; Compiled by U. S. Department of Commerce, Monthly S^ommary of Foreign Commerce of the United States (exports con- verted at US pounds per No. 2|- equivalent case, April- May, 1952, exports estimated). Reported in Sidney Hoos, Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 135. Col. 7: Column 5 minus column 6. For the years 192U-25, 1925-26, and 19U0-iil» see Sidney Hoos and Irving Dubov, Indexes of Competing Canned Fruit Prices. October, 19ii9. (Giannini Foundation Report) Compiled by Canners League of Cali- fornia and Cling Peach Advisory Board. 20. TABIE 8 Canners' Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of California Canned Apricots from 192)4.-25 Canners ' ■ 1 Total stocks on Canners ' movement hand at stocks on from United W 11 U.^ii beginning Total hand at canners' States Domestic iVidJf r cLL-iV of year siipply pnd of* vear hands exports movement 1 2 3 5 6 7 1 thousands of oases— —2]l No. 2j basis 29o 315 J-, <^3p 315 21 1,755 1926-27 3,227 2,960 dl 3,2Uo Uoi ouy 2,038 1927-28 Uoi 3,361 952 2,It09 630 1,779 1928-29 1,991 1 AO O 952 2,9U3 15U 2,789 59U 2,195 i 19'i9-30 15U ii,177 2,^88 2,597 729 2,259 1930-31 1.95k 1,189 3,1U3 5U6 hlh 2,183 2.006 1 8o5 5U6 2,552 515 2,037 h96 l,51il 515 2,320 323 1, 997 hie 1,521 7 J ..J J"4 2,m6 323 2,739 l,9iil 167 2,572 538 2,03li 193li-35 1,77U 167 227 1,71U 237 1,U77 1935-36 3,16U 227 3,391 3,7i;3 01.1, 2,5U7 596 1,951 1936-37 2,899 6hh 228 3,515 523 2,992 1937-38 5,553 228 5,781 2,305 3,ii76 575 2,901 2,562 1938-39 1,5U7 2,305 3,852 526 3,32U 762 1939-i;0 3,338 528 3,866 ii79 3,387 7U7 2,6UO 19liO-m 2,012 (Far years) 19h7-l;8 i 3,063 279 3,3ii2 639 2,703 288 2,U5 19U8-li9 li,65l 639 5,290 1,508 3,782 25U 3,528 19h9-50 2,307 1,508 3,815 532 3,283 U,078 211 3,072 / 3,566g; 3,37U-/ 1950-51 3,661 U,538 532 It, 193 115 135 1951-52 115 li,653 61I1 ii,039 1U5 a/ Excludes government (Quartermaster) purchases of 375, 56U cases. If government purchases were included, total domestic shipments would be 3,9li2,072 cases. b/ Excludes government (Quartermaster) purchases of 520,000 cases. If government, purchases were included, total domestic shipments would be 3,89ii,217 cases. (Continued on next page.) ■ ? 4 \ ( '-. f 1 '.-'V'- • ."it...* - ,1 r?-. 1 : 1 21. Table 8 continued. Sotirces! As reported in Sidney Hoos, Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O..B. Prices of Canned Apricots, 1926-27 to 1951-52. July, 19^2. (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report No. 133) Col.lthrough Si Compiled by Canners League of California. Col. 6: Compiled from U. S. Department of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States (exports converted at hS pounds per No. 2^ equivalent case, April-May, 1952, exports estimated). Col. 7t Column 5 minus column 6. For years 192h-25, 1925-26, and 19hO-Ul, see Sidney Hoos and Irving Dubov, Indexes of Com- peting Canned Fruit Prices. October, 19U9. (Giannini Foundation Report) Compiled by Canners League of California and Cling Peach Advisory Board. ! 22. TABLE 9 Canners* Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of California Canned Freestone Peaches from 192U-25 Marketing year, June through May 192i|-25 1925- 26 1926- 27 1927- 28 1^28-29 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 31; 193U-35 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1939- UO I9I1O-UI (War years) 19lt7-U8 19)48-li9 I9I19-50 1950- 51 1951- 52 Pack Canners • stocks on hand at beginning of year Total supply Canners ' stocks on hand at end of year T thousands of cases — 2U No. 2-| basis* Total movement from canners • hands^/ 3IU 157 376 120 72 23 65 3ii0 365 i;75 1,0U3 376 882 1,13U l,h97 1,708 1,U99 1,677 2,793 176 193 ho 5U 29 19 2 2 21 112 69 U35 269 273 hi 2H8 265 271 52 li90 350 hl6 17U 101 h2 67 3U2 386 587 1,112 811 1,151 l,i407 1,538 1,952 1,76U 1,9U8 2,8U5 193 ho 5U 29 19 2 2 21 112 69 h35 269 273 17ii 2U8 265 271 52 37U 1,030 1,027 Iili7 296 310 362 1U5 82 ho 65 321 27U 518 677 5h2 878 1,233 1,291 1,690 1,U93 1,896 2,ii71 a/ No exports of canned freestone peaches are reflected; exports of all canned " peaches are considered as clings since no breakdown between exports of clings and frees is available. Sources: Cols. 1, 2, and ht Col, 3: Col. 5; Canners League of California as reported by Sidney Hoos and J. N. Boles, Selected Statistics on Cali- fornia Clingstone Peaches for the 1952 Canning Season. July, 1952. (Giannini Foundation Mimeographed Report) Column 1 plus column 2. Column 3 minus column 14. For years 192U-25, 1925-26, and 1926-27 see Sidney Hoos and Irving Dubov, Indexes of Con5)eting Canned Fruit Prices. October, 19li9. (Giannini Foundation Report) Compiled by Canners League of California and Cling Peach Advisory Board. 5, 'I iit- TA.3LE 10 Oanners' Pack, Carry-Ovei-, Shipments, and Exports of Camied Fruit Cocktail from 1936-37 Marketing Canners ' Total ; year. carry-over Ganners ' movement June Remanu- on hand at carry-over from United through Direct factured beginning Total on hand at canners ' States Domestic Hay pack of year supply end of year han sa/ (s-jfTtort s shi nmen t s 1 2 1 T 4 S 1 T 1 7 1 thousands of cases — 24 No. 2§ basis — — — 1936-37 2, 221 2, 595 335 2, 259 809 1,450 1£ 37-38 3,078 228 336 3,642 1,295 2,347 758 1,589 it oo-oy 1 , yoo 1 0 1,295 3,337 288 •z AAQ o,u'±y ' 1939-40 3,580 73 288 3,942 747 3,195 1 1,044 2,151 1940-41 4,262 98 747 5,108 687 4,521 73 4,448 (We.r years) 1 1947-48 9,324 125 62 9,511 299 9,212 ! 442 8,770 1948-49 9,754 85 299 10,139 3,016 7,122 390 6,732 1£ 49-50 6,135 445 3,016 9,596 2, 104 7,492 1 471 7,021 1950-51 6,810 302 2,104 9,217 490 8,727 i 724 8,003 1 1951-52 8,999 -- 1 1 490 9,488 2,335 7,153 1 705 6,448 ! a/ I?!avemenfc figures may not be precisely consistent with other figures due to rounding errors. Sources ; Cols 1, 2, 3, and 5» Based on records of canners as compiled by Canners League of California and published in its numbered bulletins. Col. 4r Col. 6: Col, 7: Col. 8: Sum of columns 1, 2, and 3, Column 4 less coluinn 5. U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Monthly Summiy of Foreign Commerce of the United States, June, 1936-December , 1947. U, S, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census , lieport FT 410, U. S. Exports of Domestic and Foreign lierchandise , January, 1948-I,iay, 1952. Column 6 minus column 7. to 'lilBLE 11 Index of Compsting Canned Fmit Prices Adjusted by United States Ilcnagricultural Income and Canners' GB.rry-Overs of Apricots as Per Cent cf Shipments from 192-i--25 Marketing year, June throue;h May 1924- 25 1925- 26 1926- 27 1927- 28 1928- 29 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 3'i 1934- 35 1935- 36 1936- 27 1957-38 1938- 59 1939- 40 1940- 41 (War years) 1947- 48 1948- 49 1949- 50 1950- 51 1951- 52 Weighted average price relatives of competing canned fnaits Index of competing canned fruit prices adjusted for Index of United States j United States nonagricultural income ' nonag ri cultural income 2 i 3 87.26 75.53 75,74 66,73 67,80 80.80 62.18 50.47 44.27 52. 21 55.51 53.87 55.64 60.4'x 50.36 55.46 53.25 102.45 107.75 89.80 107.38 108.36 1947-1949 = 100 34,7 37.6 38,5 38.8 40.3 40.4 35,6 29.0 22.8 24.8 27.2 30,0 35.5 34.5 34.1 36.6 40.7 95.3 101.5 103,2 116.6 128.5 251.5 200,9 196.7 172,0 168,2 200.0 174.7 174.0 194.2 210.5 204,1 179.6 156,7 175.2 147,7 151.5 . 130,8 107.5 106.2 87.0 92.1 84,3 Canncrs ' carrj''-over of apricots at beginning of year as per cent of shi. pme n t_s_ in yo a r just Opened Cloi 1.2 19.7 53.5 7.0 52.6 25.0 33.4 21.2 8.2 15.4 , 43.3 7.6 79.5 20,6 . 3.0 26.5 42,7 17.3 3.2 1.0 22.5 43,4 6.8 54,5 ■ 35,4 33,9 15.9 11.3 11.6 28,2 7,9 90.0 20.0 11.6 18,1 49,1 14.9 3.4 {Continued on next page,) • • ... - . ■ • t • * - - 1 k ■ f • • I.- « * 1 Table 11 oantinued. Sources : Col. 1: Table 4, column 2* Col. 2: Based on monthlj^ income data ecnd revisions as published in U. S. Departnient of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, Col. 3: Column 1 divided by column 2. Col. 4: Table 8, column 2 divided by column 7 of preceding year. Col. 5: Table 8, colvtmn 2 divided by column 7 of same year. ^5 TABLE 12 Canned Apricots, Multiple Regression (Least Squares) Equations and Auxiliary Constants (1926-27 to 1951-52 Excluding 19^0-41 to 19^6-47) Equa- ) Depend- tion ! ent num- ! vari-^ ber ableS:/ Independent va.riablesr' a/ Constant X2 Log X: X4 X 5_ X Xn Xi Xn net X, regre'ssTon coefficients, with their corresponding t-ratios in jparentheses and beta coeff i_cients_ in brackets -9.915498 -0.000430 ( 2.833029) L -0 . iU'+VeiV J 7.109754 (10.811522) r 1 fllio876 1 0.017526 (4.376424) fo 772001 1 0.352159 -0.000451 ( 3.0133^0) [-0.318239] 0.796454 ( 0.808092) [ 0.206220] -8.963530 -0.000419 ( 2.700736) [-0.296190] 6.756421 ( 8.116113) [ 1.749390] 0.015395 (3.047012) [0.678122] -9.197754 -0.000419 ( 2.66429r) [-O.296C08] 6.826750 ( 7.873943) [ 1.767600] 0.016079 (3.239759) [0.708242] -8.9631^3 -0.000440 ( 2.823440) [-0.310970] 6.776260 ( 7.890066) [ 1.754527] 0.015489 (2.957863) [0.682260] Page 26, Table 12, equation 6, is revised to 0.041955 (4.425639) [0.974390] -0.000099 0.712571) -0.058814] -0.001945 ( 0.519197) [-0.043117] -0.002253 ( 0.622790) [-0.052348] t - 0.95U S.14779U6 - O0OO0515X5 + 7.5o59?6 log X, ( 3c 115217) (8 i;l49001) i follows ; Oc 00008 5x„ (3=$02969r ,A)o8ilU66/ -0.000059 ( 2.932666) [-0.571634] on next page.-) ro ON Table 12 continued. Equa-; Depend- tion ' ent msm- ber van- . §/ Independent variables^' / able§'/ i Constant ■ Log X2 j Log Log Xc) ; Log X;i^Q i Log X^^^. '11 R i net regression coefficients, with their corresponding t-ratios in pa rentheses and beta coefficients in brackets 8 X. Log Xn .IO.2U8952 0.639108 -0.00014-37 ! ( 2.869655)1 [-0.308359]! -0.366297 i ( 2.27^084) 1 r-o.^86q4ol I i 7.255078 i 1(11.73^553)1 i[ 1.789301^] ; 0.018256 \ (ii. 809225) '[0.737519] Page 27 f Table 12, equation 9, is revised to read as follows ; 0.682113 i 0.01+1956 ,( 6.252053 1(1.61+5501+) ir 1.^8oqi2l ir 0.2957691 __ - 0..921 a/ Specif icatlohs of variaoies: log I, - 2 .057366 " 0.2?mii9 log X. * 1.337908 log X - 0.680639 log X ( lo 577953) (6o720857) ^ ( 2o388727) ^ /To c 2367817 /I-8273937 /^0.8363U37 O.96I+ 0.885 0.911 X]_ = F.o.b. Prices of Canned California Apricots (average all grades and sizes) in dollars per case (Table 1, column 1) . X2 = Domestic Shipments of California Canned Apricots in thousands of cases, 2l+ Wo. 2-l/2 basis (Table 1, coliamn 2) . X^ = Index of United States Nonagricultural Income, I9I+7-I9I+9 = 100 (Table 11, column 2) . Xi. = Index of Competing Canned Fruit Prices Adjusted for United States Nonagricultural Income, 19'+7-19^9 = 100 (Table 11, column 3) ., X^ = Weighted Average Price Relatives of Competing Canned Fruits, IShj-l^k^ = 100 (Table h, column 2) . Xg = Canners'- Stocks of Canned Apricots at Beginning of Year, in thousands of cases, 2l+ No. 2-l/2 basis (Table 8, column 2) . (Continued on next page.) r ■" ■ " ' — — ^ ' ' ■ " " ' I '' ^-T ■ — ' " " ■ " • ■"• - ' ■ ' ■ T i ' T [ T V • - ■ " • - . ■' i . . 1 i ( - , 1 1 1 1 i Table 12 continued. Xj = Canners' Carry-Over of Apricots at Beginning of Year as Per Cent of Shipments in Year Just Closed (Table 11, column k) . Xq = Canners* Carry-Over of Apricots at Beginning of Year as Per Cent of Shipments in Year Just Opened (Table 11, column 5) • Competing = Canners' Domestic Shipments of /Canned Fruits, thousands of cases, 2k No. 2-l/2 basis (Table 5, column 8). X-j_Q = Index of United States Disposable Income, 1947-19'+9 = 100 (Table 1, column 3) . X-^^ = Index of Competing Canned Fruit Prices, Adjusted by Index of United States Disposable Income, 19^7-1949 = 100 (Table 1, column 4) . ro OD 1%