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 TRADE, POPULATION AND FOOD.
 
 TRADE, POPULATION AXD FOOD. 
 
 A SERIES OF 
 
 PAPERS ON ECONOMIC STATISTICS. 
 
 BY STEPHEN BOURNE. 
 
 .... " a question which ha* given rise to great discussion of late, and 
 
 which by some has been consiiiereil a most serious matter to our commercial 
 position : I mean the fjreat anil growing difference between the value of the 
 imports and export ■; of this country. I think the credit is due to Mr. liourne, 
 a valued member of our .Society, for having first called attention to this 
 
 phenomenon in a paper which he read last year Though I do not 
 
 share in the gloomy conclusions which Jlr. IJourne draws from these figures, 
 yet I think they are well worthy of consideration and require an explana- 
 tion." — Speech by Afr. Sluiw-Lefevre as I^esulent of the Utatistical Hvcieti/, 
 2oth June, 1878. 
 
 LONDON: 
 GEORGE BELL AND SONS, 
 
 YORK STREET, COVENT GARDEN. 
 1880.
 
 CHISWICIC PRESS .— C. WHITTINGHAM AND CO. TOOKS COURT, 
 CHANCERY LANE.
 
 3-5 0Q> 
 
 TO THE 
 RIGHT HOX. EARU GRANVILLE, K.G., 
 
 SECRETARY OF STATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS. 
 
 My Lord, 
 
 Having at an unusnally early age become inte- 
 rested in the progress of political life during the stormy 
 period which succeeded the Relief Act of 1829 and pre- 
 coded the Reform Bill of 18o2, I have never wavered in 
 attachment to those great principles which later on dic- 
 tated the Abolition of Slavery in the West Indies (where 
 I resided during the transition period) in 1834 and the 
 removal of Restrictions on Trade in 1845. 
 
 Having also in my boyhood been honoured by the patron- 
 age of the then Lords Holland, Brougham, and John Russell, 
 and received my first appointment in the public service at 
 the hands of Lord Melbourne, I learned to venerate the 
 champions of that liberal legislation which raised our 
 country to its proud position of prosperity at homo and 
 honour abroad. 
 
 In your Lordship I now recognize the connecting link 
 between the policy of those days and the more I'ccent de- 
 velopment of the present times, — the able representative of 
 British interests at the Court of our nearest neiy:hbour for a 
 
 42.'i'.iJ).'?
 
 Vi DEDICATION. 
 
 considerable portion of the interval between the two periods, 
 — and the enlightened administrator of our Foreign rela- 
 tions at the present moment. 
 
 Permit me, then, although personally unknown to your 
 Lordship, to thankfully accept your permission to dedicate 
 to you this volume, the result of many years of thought and 
 labour spent in tho public service, in the hope that it may 
 be received with favour as a slight contribution to the 
 knowledge of the trading position in which the Empire 
 stands. 
 
 With much respect, 
 
 Your obedient Servant, 
 
 Stephen Bouene. 
 
 London, Wtfi October, 1880.
 
 CONTENTS. 
 
 FAGK 
 
 Introductory. — Thk present Crisis in Tr.vde . . xi-xxvii 
 
 I. The Official Trade and Navigation Statistics . . 1 
 
 ]\Ietho(ls adopted for collecting — Imports — Sources of 
 information — Particulars required — Country of origin — 
 Description of gords — Quantities — Values — Exports — 
 Nature of records and publications — Alterations in sys- 
 tems — Bill of Entry — Conclusion. 
 
 II. The Progress of olr Foreign Trade — Imports and 
 
 Exports during Twenty Years . . . . .(l 
 
 Values, official, real, computed, declared — Gradual pro- 
 gress of commerce — Proportion of trade — Principal arti- 
 cles — Transhipments — Total imports, re-exports — Total 
 exports — Value of imports — Value of exports — Pi-incipal 
 articles of import and re-export — Ditto of export British 
 produce — Quantities — Imports — Re-exports — Quantities 
 and values of food — Raw Materials — Surplus of imports — 
 Position of Trade — Tal)les, imports, exports. 
 
 III. The Growing Preponderance of Imports over Ex- 
 
 ports ........ a') 
 
 Earlier period of trade — Period from 1854 to present 
 time — Alterations to be made in relative values — Excess 
 of imjjorts during past twenty years — Preponderance of 
 imports in recent years — Conchuling remarks. 
 
 IV. The Increasing Dependence of this Cointry ipox 
 
 Foreign Supplies of Food ..... 76 
 
 Value of imports for series of years — (Jrain converted 
 into beer anil spirits — Quantities of principal articles of
 
 Vin • CONTENTS. 
 
 PAOB 
 
 food — Quantities of bcverajjes and tobacco — Comparison 
 of foreign supply witli home produce — Quantity oi'' home- 
 raised wlieat and meat — Dependence upon extraneous 
 sources for food of nation — Financial relations with rest of 
 world. 
 
 V. The Nature and Extent of our Fobkign Food Sup- 
 plies, AND THE Sources from whence they ark 
 
 DERIVED . . . • . . . .103 
 
 Value of food imports — Sources of supply — Different 
 kinds supplied by different countries — Comparison of home 
 with foreign supplies. 
 
 VI. The Growth of Population with Relation to the 
 
 Means OF Subsistence . . . . .114 
 
 Theories of Malthus — Census Reports of 1871, sub- 
 division into classes — Agricultural class — Industi-ial — 
 Census division into sexes — Food-producei's — Objections 
 to unlimited numbers — Increase of productive power a 
 source of prosperity — False economy of restriction. 
 
 VII. Duties on Wine. ....... 133 
 
 Proposed alteration — Rates of spirit duty on different 
 liquors — Suggested rates of duty to be charged — Objec- 
 tions — Difficulties. 
 
 VIII. Excess of Imports and Trade Depression . . .138 
 
 Are we consuming capital ? — Figures of Imports, exports, 
 and excess of former — Sources from which to be met — 
 Probability of improvement — Foreign competition — Subdi- 
 vision — Effects of excess imports — Want of economy — 
 Remedy. 
 
 IX The True Relation between Imports and Exports . 162 
 
 Origin of trade— Its progress — Conditions under which 
 excess of imports is satisfactory — Also when exports are 
 so — Trade from 1699 to 1815-^From 1S16 to 1878— Trade 
 of Russia — Franee^United States — Our trade with the 
 United States — Balance of trade — Food and wages — Reci- 
 procity — Protection — Proposed remedies.
 
 CONTENTS. - IX 
 
 PAGE 
 
 X. Some Phases of the Silver Question . . . 199 
 
 Connection of gold with silver — Relation of production 
 and quantity of precious metals to state of trade — Suffi- 
 ciency of gold supply — Fall in prices — Purchasing power 
 of gold — Variations in tlie value of gold — Production and 
 depreciation of silver — Depression of trade — Bi-metallic 
 and other theories — Concluding remarks — Postscript. 
 
 XI. The Decay of our Export Trade .... 236 
 
 Progressive decline in its total value — Question whether 
 in volume or value— Tables, 1872, 1873, 1877, 1878, 1879 — 
 Sources of variations in exports — Imports not more satis- 
 factory — Causes of decay and remedy — Free trade and 
 protection. 
 
 XIT. Social Aspect of Trade Depression . . . . 250 
 
 Long continuance of — Natural condition — Prosperity *^ 
 
 of 1872-3 — Trade inflation — Progress of export trade — 
 Social revolution imjiendlng — Bad iiarvests — Reduced ex- 
 ])enditure — Undue exaltation of wealth — Xcw motives — 
 Proper pi-inoiples. 
 
 XIII. Extended Colonization a Xecessity for the Mother 
 
 Country ........ 2G7 
 
 Population of United Kingdom — Production of Fond — 
 Probability of lesser demands — Sources from which defi- 
 ciency met — Extensive emigration necessary — Facilities 
 ami advantages — Wherein lies source of wealth — Value 
 of life — Relationship of mother country to dependencies — 
 EHurts to meet necessity — Home-residents and colonies 
 — Public opinion. 
 
 XIV. DiuNKiNG and Depression ...... 301 
 
 Probable privation during ensuing winter — Retrench- 
 ment necessary — Should begin with drink — Depression 
 enhanced by expenditure on alcohol — Increases outlay for 
 imports — Curtailment would quicken export trade — 
 Awakening perception to truth. 
 
 XV. Ri:t EXT Revival IN Trade . . . . , .311 
 
 Originated in orders from America — Examination into 
 exports — Increase more in quantity than price — Imports,
 
 -a CONTEXTS. 
 
 PAGE 
 
 decided advance in price — Conntries to which exported 
 and iinportcd from — Imports increased beyond exports — 
 Food at bottom of (luctuations — Revival very much owing 
 to bad harvest. 
 
 XVI. TirE Finance OF " NATiojJAr. Insurance " . . . 326 
 
 Scheme of Mr. Blackley — Financial question — Table of 
 supposed ftind — Amount proposed insufficient — Rate of 
 investment — Accumulation necessary — Ultimate charge 
 on fund — Disadvantages to thrifty — Advantages to impro- 
 vident — Fallacies on which supported — Weaknesa of 
 scheme — Unlikely to be adopted.
 
 INTRODUCTORY.— THE PRESENT CRISIS 
 IN TRADE. 
 
 IF it savour somewhat of presumption thus to place before 
 the public a series of papers which with a few exceptions 
 have ah'eady appeared in the published Proceedings of 
 various Societies, the apology to be offered is that in the 
 opinion of friends, the accuracy of whose judgment it would 
 be still more presumjotuous to dispute, their appearance is 
 justified by the importance of the subjects of which they 
 treat. These friends know that the information they con- 
 tain has been honestly and laboriously collected, and though 
 the conclusions which the figures are employed to support 
 may not altogether meet with unchallenged acceptance, they 
 think the facts are yet worthy of attention as evidence to- 
 wards the working out of problems of the highest interest. 
 
 It was at first intended to rewrite the whole of the papers, 
 bringing down the figures compiled for the earlier to the date 
 of the later ones, and eliminating from each whatever had 
 been introduced into the others; so reducing the bulk of the 
 volume, and giving greater completeness to the whole. It was, 
 however, found that to do this would involve the preparation 
 of a mass of new figures which would not have altered the 
 reasoning of which they were the ba.sis, involving great 
 labour without any corresponding advantage. On the con- 
 trary, that though in a few instances the repetition of figures
 
 xu INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 and the restating of results may be found in some degree 
 wearisome, yet as illustrating different branches of the sub- 
 jects, and leading up to conclusions which harmonize and 
 support each other, the iteration is valuable for strengthening 
 the opinions arrived at through diffci-ent channels on kindred, 
 yet not identical topics, all converging to the same end. 
 The papers, therefore, excepting that in some few instances 
 later figures have been added to some of the tables, and 
 here and there a verbal alteration has been made, are repro- 
 duced in the same state as they first appeared. They are 
 also ranged in chronological order rather than with reference 
 to their subject-matter; so that wherever similar points 
 are touched, the later paper gives contact with the latest 
 facts. It is hoped that in their collected form these essays 
 may not be altogether useless to those statesmen, political 
 economists, and leaders in philanthropic movements to 
 whom the present trading and social relations of the country, 
 whether home or foreign, must at this time be a source of 
 the deepest interest as well as keenest anxiety. 
 
 The mention of one other reason for publication may 
 perhaps be pardoned. It has been a source of much solace 
 to the wi'iter during the many weary years through which 
 he has been officially engaged in the compilation of trade 
 statistics, to trace the information they afford backwards to 
 its sources, and onwards to its bearings upon the progress and 
 prosperity of the community : thus, by utilizing the labour 
 bestowed — beyond the mere results shown in the published 
 trade accounts — relieving the tedium of perpetually deal- 
 ing with dry and uninteresting details. With this object he 
 has ever sought to improve and simplify the methods for pro- 
 curing, recording, and compiling the various accounts ; and 
 had some share in bringing about the extensive changes of 
 system in 1870 which form the subject of the first of the
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. xiu 
 
 following papers. Since then, finding himself — whether 
 from the accidents of official life, the results of political 
 changes, or as the penalty of too great pertinacity in pur- 
 suing those plans of statistical reform which then received 
 the highest sanction and have since obtained the highest 
 praise — in a great measure shut out from the honour and 
 responsibility of carrying them into practice ; it has been 
 to him no less a labour of love than of presumed duty to 
 give the country which has paid for his services the 
 benefit of such light, the result of long training and close 
 observation, as it might be in his power to throw upon 
 the various subjects with which the trade returns are so 
 intimately connected. It must, however, be understood 
 that, whatever the shape in which the figures are condensed 
 or reproduced, they rest upon official sanction only in so far 
 as they emanate from the recognized official authority, and 
 that the author is solely responsible for the forms in which 
 they are presented in the following pages, as well as for the 
 opinions expressed or the deductions which to him they 
 appear to sustain. With these explanations and in this 
 spirit he desires to offer a few preliminary observations on 
 the momentous trading crisis through which the country has 
 been passing of late years, the end of which has certainly 
 not yet arrived. 
 
 The subjects treated of in the following pages may bo 
 ranged under three heads : the progress of our Trade, the 
 increase of our Population, and the supplies of Food which 
 our commerce procures for our people to consume. The 
 sequence in which they stand in the title-page of the 
 volume indicates the order in which they claim considera- 
 tion. 
 
 A retrospect of the early history of our foreign trade will 
 show that it arose from the same cause which induced
 
 XIV INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 Solomon to scud sliips to Ophir for gold and to bring home 
 from thence the " silver^ ivory, apes, and peacocks/' Our 
 ancestors desired to possess some of the treasures which 
 travellers had discovered other lands to contain, and to 
 consume the luxuries which their own soil and climate failed 
 to bring forth. But very early the cnterpi^se which took 
 our discoverers abroad induced them to settle in the new- 
 found countries, and by degrees to establish trading posts 
 and colonies to an extent which no other nation has at- 
 tempted, first, for the collection and transport of the articles 
 produced by the natives, and then for themselves to culti- 
 vate or manufacture the goods they found to be in demand 
 at home. This required supplies for their maintenance, 
 materials for their fisheries, farms, and factories, which 
 could only be obtained from home, and thus, in addition to 
 the sending out of goods in payment for those we received 
 from thence, there was a growing export of those things 
 which formed the capital worked by the settlers, but mostly 
 owned at home. To this, in process of time, became added 
 goods purchased on credit or paid for by loans, stocks, and 
 shares furnished by capitalists at home. There was thus 
 a continually expanding export trade, furnishing employ- 
 ment to the growers, manufacturers, and traders at home. 
 During this period the import trade had likewise been pro- 
 gressing, and was maintained, first, by the demand for 
 articles wherewith to repay those who had furnished the 
 foreign supplies for our own use ; then in the return of 
 interest, earnings, and profits on capital and labour bestowed 
 both at home and abroad ; and, finally, for goods purchased 
 by this country with the proceeds of repayments made by 
 others. The remarkable development of this trade in both 
 directions during the twenty years of its greatest prosperity, 
 1854-74, forms the subject of the second paper, that on
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. XV 
 
 " The Progress of our Foreign Trade/' read in 1875 ; its 
 predecessor, that on the " Official Trade and Navigation 
 Statistics," having given information as to the nature of the 
 returns from which the particulars of this progress were 
 derived . 
 
 It was then that the phenomenon alluded to by Mr. 
 Shaw-Lefevre in the quotation on the title-page, that of 
 the '^ Growing preponderance of Imports over Exports," 
 was brought to view in No. III. paper of 1876 bearing that 
 title. It will be seen however, from the concluding para- 
 graph of the previous paper (p, 52), and still more from 
 the notes on p. 223 that at a still earlier date (1873) the 
 analysis to which the trade returns had been subjected, led 
 to doubts as to whether the rapid rise in our imports was 
 altogether compatible with the prosperity of trade, when 
 unaccompanied by a corresponding expansion in that of our 
 exports ; and from this arose the attempt in that paper, not 
 so much to give the explanation of this phenomenon, which 
 after its reading was in Mr. Shaw-Lefevrc's opinion still 
 needed, as to state plainly the circumstances of our trade, in 
 order that its condition might be properly investigated . This 
 paper was the precursor of many others, from the pens of 
 Mr. Newmarch, Mr. Giflfcn, Mr. Mundella, and Mr. Shaw- 
 Lefevre himself, all dealing with the various points suggested 
 to account for this remarkable change in the balance of our 
 ti'ade. In truth, however, no satisfactory explanation has 
 been afforded. In one quarter it was thought that tlie 
 difference was more apparent than real, inasmuch as the 
 values given were subject to deduction on one side, and 
 addition on the other. This was admitted and calculated 
 for in the paper itself, and after much discussion the degree 
 iu which these alterations affect tlio results is not a point 
 ou which there is much diversity of opinion; and at best it
 
 XVI INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 docs not explain tlio rapid transition from one condition 
 of trade to the other, amounting to a change of nearly 
 £100,000,000 as between 1872 and 1877. Another opinion 
 was, that the difference was due to the large profits on our 
 trade, and the greatness of our income realized abroad and 
 remitted home ; but there was no apparent reason why 
 these sources should have so suddenly augmented, or the 
 receipts from them liave coincided with the setting in of a 
 period of depression. It was then argued that the rapidity 
 of our accumulations at home forbad the supposition that 
 our importations were excessive. Subsequent experience, 
 however, has shown that the appraisement of our national 
 property was set too high, and a fresh valuation would now 
 considerably lower the estimate. Again, the condition of 
 manufactures abroad was thought to be such as to dispel 
 any fears that our manufacturing supremacy was in danger ; 
 notwithstanding this, it must be admitted that progress in 
 this direction at home has scarcely kept pace with its rapid 
 strides abroad. Another idea put forth was, that those to 
 whom we had lent money in our colonies and other places 
 were paying off their debts ; but the figures proved that if 
 this were so, payment was being made in articles of food, 
 the consumption of which would not only cancel the debts 
 but destroy the wealth they represented. A nearer ap- 
 proach to a satisfactory solution may be found in the sug- 
 gestion that the discrediting of foreign loans which took 
 place at this period had restricted sales for export. This, 
 however, would show that in the measure that former ex- 
 ports had resulted from the expenditure of these loans in 
 this country, the manufacturing interests had gained at the 
 expense of the investing members of the community, and 
 that the diminution of these transactions was beneficial. 
 Yet it iu no wise accounted for the vast increase of the
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. xvil 
 
 imports which, but for our necessities, ought to have les- 
 sened with our diminished power to effect exchanges of our 
 own produce. Nor docs the supposition that we were 
 ceasing our investments abroad at all support tlie argument 
 that om* continued increase in imports was advantageous. 
 It simply shows that we were sending forth our money to 
 purchase perishable commodities for consumption instead 
 of for profitable investment. Neither of these views ex- 
 plains how wo could fail to become poorer by buying more 
 than we were selling. No. VIII., on " Excess of Im- 
 ports," written though not published early in 1878, and 
 No. IX., on the " Relation between Imports and Exports," 
 late in the same year, are both of them efforts to discover 
 some of the reasons for the existing state of things, and 
 the principles which should guide to a right judgment re- 
 garding them. The two Papers XI. and XV. carry on the 
 facts necessary to a correct understanding, by analyzing 
 the figures for the worst year of the depression, and show- 
 ing the " Decay of our Exports " in 1879, and those which 
 manifest a partial " Revival in Trade " up to the present 
 time. 
 
 The last paper to be mentioned in this section is No. X., 
 " On the Silver Question," in which, besides dealing with 
 the history of the production and prices of the precious 
 metals, it was maintained that there had been neither such 
 an appreciation of gold as to account for the depreciation 
 of silver, nor such a scarcity of the superior metal as would 
 either considerably enhance its value or impede trade 
 transactions. The soundness of these opinions would ap- 
 pear to be shown in the subsequent rise in prices, and the 
 absence of the anticipated drain of gold for the expansion 
 of the circulation in other places. When that drain does 
 take place it mil occur, not because gold ia wanted for use in
 
 xviil INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 America or clsowhcro, but bccauao other means of settling 
 balances have become exhausted. 
 
 On all these points there is room for much divergence of 
 opinion, but the facta remain unaltered: that this prepon- 
 derance of imports still exists, that though for the few 
 intervening years the balance was reduced, it never before 
 reached so high as it has done during the past year, and 
 that as shown by the most recent returns — those issued 
 whilst these sheets are passing through the press — its 
 dimensions are still increasing. 
 
 Neither is there any room for questioning — whatever may 
 bo inferred from it as to the prosperity or adversity of trade 
 or manufactures — that the cause of this continuous balance 
 exists in '^ The Increasing Dependence upon Foreign Sup- 
 plies for Food," the details of which are put forward in 
 Paper No. IV., compiled early in 1877. Whilst manifesting 
 that these had been trebled since 1857, it yet fails to show 
 the still higher totals which have since been reached. In 
 a subsequent paper, No. V., on " the Nature and Extent 
 of our Food Supplies, and the sources from whence they 
 are derived,'^ information will be found which may serve as 
 material for guiding to some conclusions as to the bearing 
 of these facts on the welfare of the nation. Other papers 
 contain figures also which may aid in the same direc- 
 tion. 
 
 The second division under which a portion of these papers 
 may be classed is that which relates to Population. Just as 
 our trade in its origin and growth has widely differed from 
 that of other nations, so have there been peculiar conditions 
 under which the inhabitants of the United Kingdom have 
 progressed to their present numbers and social positions. 
 In China and India we have examples of nations existing for 
 ages in much the same condition, cultivating the land as
 
 THE PRESENT CKISIS IX TRADE. xix 
 
 their forefathers had done, trading more between them solves 
 than with foreigners, but constrained by the pressure of in- 
 creasing numbers to seek commercial intercourse with other 
 countries — principally with England — and thus sharing in 
 the benefits of Western civilization, enabling them to ex- 
 change tlio products of their industry in the shape of raw 
 material and food for the finished articles sent from our 
 own and other shores. In the United States wo have an 
 example of a different kind : a comparatively new people, 
 occupying lands of great richness in agricultural and mineral 
 products, increasing with great rapidity, by natural addi- 
 tions, consequent upon freedom of space and abundance of 
 food, aided by the attractive influence of the same causes 
 bringing immigrants from the older countries; employing 
 itself mainly in agriculture, and so obtaining manufactured 
 articles from abroad, mainly from the Mother country, 
 although now endeavouring to rival her in both manufacture 
 and trade. The same may be said with a great degree of 
 truth of our own Australian and African colonics, who, liko 
 the United States, in becoming peopled have not only sus- 
 tained themselves upon the food resources of their own 
 lands, but have been able to produce large quantities both 
 of this and of raw material for transport to the old world — 
 again up to very recent times chiefly to this country. The 
 soil has created the population, and with it tho means of 
 subsistence. Here, however, we for many years past, though 
 rapidly adding to our numbers, have ceased to grow more 
 of food or clothing, and thus are yearly becoming moro de- 
 pendent upon our manufacturing and trading operations 
 for obtaining the necessaries of life. It is the trade which 
 has created our population, and that in three ways — tho 
 natural increase which it fostered, the restraint it put upon 
 emigration, and tho immigration of those who found better
 
 XX INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 employment here than in tlie places of their birth. On the 
 maintenance and the rapid enlargement of that trade we 
 depend for the life and the increase of our people. Hence 
 the depression and suffering resulting from the lessening or 
 decay of our exports, and the grave anxiety with which the 
 present state of affairs must be regarded. 
 
 In Paper No. VI., " On the Growth of Population," &c., 
 1877, it was sought to be shown that up to the date 
 when that paper was written there had been no increase out- 
 stripping the means of subsistence produced at home or 
 procurable from abroad in exchange for our manufactures. 
 In No. XII., "The Social Aspect of Trade Depression^' as 
 the status of the several members were affected by it was set 
 forth, whilst in No. XIII. the necessity for extended colo- 
 nization as a consequence of that depression was contended 
 for ; and in No. XVI., on the " Finance of National In- 
 surance," the practicability of the proposed measures for 
 the prevention of pauperism was investigated from a finan- 
 cial point of view. The objections to which this scheme 
 lies open on the ground of expediency, as well as for social, 
 moral, and even religious reasons, are numerous. There 
 was not space for dealing with these, which may form the 
 subject of future consideration should the National Club 
 still be a candidate for public acceptance. 
 
 The third subject dealt with in these papers is that of 
 Food, which besides having the two already alluded to de- 
 voted entirely to it, finds a place or places in almost every 
 one of them; for the necessity of obtaining supplies of food 
 forms so important a consideration in every trade question 
 that scarcely any can be separated from it. To our trade 
 we owe the increase of our population, and to the extent of 
 that increase we owe the necessity for trading in food. It 
 is thus the first, the last, and the all-imjjortant subject on
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. XXI 
 
 which hinges the continuance or advance of our national 
 prosperity, for herein we differ from almost every other 
 nation, and it is the end and aim of trade to remove the 
 existing consequences of that difference. We cannot avoid 
 supplementing our deficient home supplies by drawing upon 
 the superfluous growth of other countries ; we must neces- 
 sarily work for the production of something wherewith to 
 pay for those supplies, and we have no means of carrying on 
 the exchange but through the medium of the trading rela- 
 tions we establish or maintain with the rest of the world. 
 Closely connected with this are the facts spoken of in paper 
 No. XIV., on " Drinking and Depression," which deals with 
 the waste of money expended on alcohol, and the degree 
 in which this affects wages, and through wages the enhanced 
 cost of our manufactures, thus heavily weighting our com- 
 merce with the world. Paper No. VII., though relating 
 solely to an article which can only be classed with food, 
 more properly belongs to the first group, that of trade, since 
 on the adoption of some satisfactory settlement of this matter 
 much of our trade, with France especially, depends. Yet 
 it is impossible not to see that if we would dispense with the 
 consumption of tliat article we might save for devotion to 
 other uses all the labour expended in producing the goods 
 we have to sell or exchange for wine. It will be noticed 
 how closely the principles, on which three years since it was 
 suggested that legislation should be based, are in confor- 
 mity with those proposed by Mr. Gladstone in his recent 
 Budget, but withdrawn to await an agreement with the 
 French Government. Paper No. XIII., on Colonization, 
 enters more fully into the extent of our home supplies, and 
 from their proved deficiency points to the necessity for many 
 of our people to go forth and become food-producers for 
 themselves and for those who remain at home, in some oral! 
 
 h 2
 
 xxn INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 of the magnificent territories which form a part of the British 
 Empire. 
 
 The needed explanation, then, of the phenomenon mani- 
 fested in the growing expansion of our imports beyond that 
 of our exports is simply this, — that with a prosperous stato 
 of trade and manufactures, the mouths we have to feed, and 
 the food required to feed them, have increased beyond the 
 powers of our own soil to provide for; and that other 
 nations have been growing in intelligence, wealth, and manu- 
 facturing power, and so in the capacity for supplpng their 
 own wants, without increasing, but rather decreasing, their 
 demands upon those products of our labour by which our 
 ability to purchase food from them is largely maintained. Our 
 necessities have been multiplied by continuous seasons of 
 diminished produce from our own soil, whilst agricultural 
 operations have been progressively advancing abroad ; thus, 
 concurrently with lessened crops, there has been a lower 
 range of prices to remunerate our own agriculturists, and 
 they have had less to expend with the manufacturers for the 
 home trade. That we should have been able thus long to 
 stem these adverse currents does, indeed, manifest the pro- 
 gress of our resources, and the accumulations of our past 
 prosperity in trade ; but it does not at all indicate that we 
 may not now be expending more than our income, or at 
 least ceasing to make those accumulations which have con- 
 tributed to our wealth and given us the commercial stand- 
 ing which we still retain. Neither does it forbid the sup- 
 position that if that wealth and that supremacy in trade 
 and manufacture is to be preserved, we must retrace our 
 footsteps, in some directions, and advance vdth greater 
 boldness and rapidity in others. 
 
 One feature in the present aspect of affairs appears to 
 have been lost sight of, or not, at least, suflficiently appre-
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. xxui 
 
 ciated — namely, the extent to which the wealth — not only the 
 floating but the realized capital we have — may be held as 
 bankers rather than owners, and how large a portion of our 
 trade wo carry on as agents rather than principals, earning 
 commissions instead of realizing profits. It may bo that 
 during the years of depression through which we have been 
 passing, this has been the most profitable position to occupy, 
 for there seems to be a growing tendency towards in- 
 creasing the rewards of the distributor rather than those 
 of the producer. All the experience we gain from an 
 insight into the methods by which fortunes have been 
 accumulated by individuals, or dividends earned for share- 
 holders in banks, shows that boldness in speculation by the 
 one, and the almost unlimited expansion of credit in the 
 other, have been the sources of success. It is amazing to 
 see how vast a superstructure credit builds upon a slender 
 basis ; how little of actual available capital serves to carry 
 on the most gigantic undertakings. It is thus that money 
 held simply in custody, often enables its holder to obtain 
 and expend so large an income. It may he that thus we 
 have been enabled to tide over times in which we have 
 certainly been spending more than we have been earning, 
 and fortunate will it be for us if we thus sustain our com- 
 mercial pre-eminence, until we can take the new departure — 
 to use a nautical phrase — which the altered conditions under 
 which the voyage must be pursued renders an absolute 
 necessity. 
 
 What then are the steps we must retrace ? Clearly those 
 of individual and national extravagance, of deterioration in 
 the quality of our manufactures, and the honesty of our 
 trade — of undue exaltation of wealth, and dependence upon 
 skill or smartness in obtaining the larger share of that which 
 already exists, rather than upon industry and perseverance
 
 XXIV INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 in creating and preserving, not money alone, but all that 
 really adds to the wealth of the world. What, too, are those 
 in which we must advance ? Aa individuals we must attach 
 more value to honest labour, whether of the hands or the 
 brains, employed in actual production, or the improved use 
 and lessened destruction of that which labour has already 
 created ; and must use the hours reserved from laborious 
 occupation as opportunities for real recreation, not for in- 
 dulgence in enervating pleasures or exhausting pursuits. 
 As citizens we need to set a higher value upon the powers 
 of life, by sanitary improvements to lessen mortality, by 
 hygienic measures to improve and strengthen the health of 
 the populace, and by police regulations to repress, so far 
 as these can possibly do, all interference with that which 
 wastes time or substance. As producers and manufacturers 
 we need to study and practise whatever may lessen the cost 
 of production and increase the power of labour; to culti- 
 vate those branches in which we have a natural or sure 
 superiority over other nations, and cease to increase those 
 in which it is certain that other countries must ultimately 
 excel ourselves. As traders we need to lessen the cost of 
 distribution, to discourage costly rivalry, to increase facilities 
 of transport, and to seek out new openings for the sale of 
 our goods and the bringing home new articles of utility, 
 whether as food or for manufacture. As labourers we should 
 cease from ruinous strikes and aU interference with the 
 devotion of time, strength, and talent, wherever and for how- 
 ever long they may be profitably employed. As capitalists 
 we must cultivate those close and cordial relations with 
 labour through which alone money can be made to increase ; 
 eschew all those speculations which merely seek to trans- 
 fer it from one pocket to another, and even risk it wher- 
 ever at home or abroad it may help honest labour to increase
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. XXV 
 
 production. As statesmen we must economize the national 
 resources, and, so for as is compatible with the detection of 
 crime or the prevention of pauperism, the spread of educa- 
 tion and the preservation of healthy life, remove every re- 
 striction upon individual liberty. We must so regulate our 
 intercourse with other nations as to avoid expenditure in war 
 or the destruction of the life and property of those who by 
 peaceful measures might be made our customers and friends. 
 As disciples and teachers of Economic science, we must seek 
 for the more universal diffusion of those principles of action 
 which in our individual case or national experience have 
 been proved to encourage labour and enhance capital in 
 harmonious union. We must repudiate any attempt to 
 revert to the policy of protection, or the imposition of reci- 
 procal restrictions upon the fullest freedom in the inter- 
 change of commodities, in the utmost confidence that what- 
 ever of real utility is best produced or manufactured in 
 any one part of the world, it is the best that every country 
 should obtain at the lowest cost and in the readiest manner. 
 We must seek to have all fiscal regulations so applied as to 
 afford the greatest freedom in the handling, storing, and 
 dealing with all dutiable goods which may be consistent with 
 the safety of th« . revenue, so long as the exigencies of 
 the State render the continuance of Customs or Excise 
 duties absolutely indispensable. 
 
 It will be said, however, that all these are truths well 
 known and generally approved. They recommend no 
 specific measures, suggest no new courses of action. Is it 
 not the fact, however, that in these days we are in danger 
 of forgetting that it is just in proportion as we have put 
 them into practice we have prospered in times past, and that 
 because through their imperfect recognition on the one side, 
 and their undue exaltation, as the means of rectifying every
 
 xxvi INTRODUCTORY. 
 
 natural or acquired disadvantage which wo find ourselves un- 
 able wholly to overcome, on the other, there is a growing dis- 
 position on the part of many to revert to a selfish and exclusive 
 policy ? This may only retard the progress of a young and 
 mainly agricultural country like the United States, but would 
 inevitably result in the speedy decay of an old covmtry like 
 ours, whose prosperity has hitherto resulted from the advance 
 of its trade with the whole world. It is painful to have to 
 repeat the truths which should be accepted as axioms, to 
 refute those fallacies which were thought to be exploded- 
 but so long as there remains any considerable body of states- 
 men or economists who cling to protection or would restrict 
 freedom of trade, the compilation of statistics and the re- 
 stating of the facts they substantiate can scarcely be deemed 
 a work of supererogation. 
 
 It is often unjustly charged on those who dwell upon 
 the admitted excess of imports, that they take unnecessarily 
 gloomy views of the trading condition of the country — at 
 least it was so charged when first the fact was brought to 
 notice in 1873 ^ — but it can scarcely now be said that any 
 unfavourable anticipations then entertained were worse than 
 the experience of the intervening seven years ; nor that the 
 present state of our trade is so satisfactory or encouraging 
 as to support the roseate hues in which their opponents 
 represented this preponderance of imports as our unalloyed 
 gain. It is unfortunate for those ardent free-traders who 
 yet doubted the soundness of all the trade which was then 
 being carried on, and who foresaw the adversity which has 
 since existed, that the facts they adduced have been 
 perverted to the support of Protectionist theories ; but this 
 would have been less the case had there been any dis- 
 position on the part of those who believed in the con- 
 
 ^ Pace 223.
 
 THE PRESENT CRISIS IN TRADE. xxvii 
 
 tinuancG of unexampled prosperity, to admit that there was 
 any cause for anxiety. The fact remains undisputed that 
 the disparity between the two continues to exist, and that 
 the years through which it has lasted have not been marked 
 by a prosperous progress. Even now, whilst these words 
 are being written, the trade returns which are being pub- 
 lished show the increase of an adverse balance, and that tho 
 food imports very nearly swallow up the whole value of the 
 produce and manufactures we export. Yet we do not hear 
 that traders or manufacturers are reaping large profits, 
 that labourers are able to command exorbit-int wages, or 
 that there is any plethora of work for those who are seekin"" 
 employment, such as would naturally result were we truly 
 advancing in wealth in the measure that tho goods we 
 receive from abroad exceed those that we are able to sell 
 for export. Still there is no reason to doubt the strength 
 of our natural position, or that there are abundant means 
 for tlio comfort and happiness of all, and many more than, 
 tho present members of the Empire, if only we will discard 
 our sense of false security, forsake the vices prosperity has 
 engendered, and learn to practise the virtues which are 
 taught by adversity. There may not be room within these 
 islands for all who would like to remain at home, or for the 
 employment of all the labour and capital which may bo 
 redeemed from unprofitable uses; but there is ample scope 
 for all of tho present and many successive generations in 
 manufacturing for the yet uncivilized nations of tho world, 
 and developing tho producing powers of tho uninhabited 
 portions of our own Empire.
 
 I. 
 
 The Official Trade and Navigation Statistics.' 
 
 p I ^HE following paper was prepared soon after the exten- 
 X sive alterations in the methods and arrangements for 
 compiling the statistical returns which took place in the year 
 1871. It was drawn up and promulgated, not without advice 
 from competent authority that it was expedient to make the 
 public acquainted with the changes which had then ]>een 
 made; and although the system then introduced has now 
 become thoroughly establislied, it is perhaps more than ever 
 necessary to detail its character, so that those who compare 
 the accounts of one period with another may be made aware 
 of the points in which the comparisons need correction. In 
 subsequent papers the degree in which these changes, affect 
 tlie information collected from the published returns is more 
 fully pointed out ; and if these several alterations are borne 
 in mind, they will serve to correct many erroneous deduc- 
 tions from figures which are not so fully in concord as they 
 would have been had one uniform plan been in use from the 
 earliest to the latest period.] 
 
 It was my intention, in the paper I have the honour of 
 laying l^cfore you this evening, to have grouped the several 
 articles of import and export, as shown in the trade returns 
 for the past year, into distinctive classes — according to the 
 use for Avhicli they are, brought hero, or the purposes to 
 which ihoy are to be ajiplicd — and to have instituted a com- 
 
 ' llfiul l)L'luiT the Statistical Society, 21st May, 187-2. Vol. xxxv. 
 
 B
 
 2 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 parison between the quantities thus shown and those of one 
 or more former years similarly classified. The classification 
 proposed for the imports would have embraced the distinc- 
 tive headings of articles of food and personal consumption, 
 of fuel and lighting, of clothing and habitation, of works of 
 art and the gratification of taste and amusement, of raw 
 materials for manufacture, of those for agricultural opera- 
 tions, and any others which might appear of a sufficiently 
 distinctive character to be worthy of forming a separate 
 class. The years chosen for comparison with 1871, would 
 have been 1861 and 1851, and possibly another decennial 
 period ; selecting those in which the census was taken, as 
 being convenient periods for considering the figures so ob- 
 tained in connection with the growth of our home popula- 
 tion, and thus showing our increasing dependence upon the 
 supplies we obtain from abroad. We should thus have seen 
 the extent and the several degrees in which our comfort and 
 happiness — if not our very existence — depend upon the 
 maintenance and growth of our commercial relations, and 
 have had, as I venture to think, a more distinct view of the 
 wide-spread benefits of the unrestricted intercourse we are 
 enabled to carry on with every producing and manufacturing 
 country throughout the world. In like manner, by a similar 
 classification of our exports, but varied in accordance with 
 their character and origin, rather than with their appropria- 
 tion by those to whom we send them, a comprehensive view 
 might have been presented of the various commodities which 
 enable us to pay for the goods we import, whilst at the same 
 time furnishing employment to so large a portion of our in- 
 dustrial population, and adding so greatly to our stores of 
 material wealth. A further statement of the articles drawn 
 hither, simply as to a depot, from which other countries may 
 obtain their supplies, would have shown how large a propor- 
 tion of our foreign trade results from the facility with which 
 its operations are here carried on — the consequence of our 
 wealth, our intelligence, our industry, and the undisturbed 
 peace we have so long enjoyed.
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. O 
 
 In the process of this investigation I should have had to 
 take into account the extensive alterations which have re- 
 cently been made in the substance and form of our statistical 
 returns, whereby the comparison between different periods 
 is much disturbed and often rendered difficult. This would 
 have led rao to notice the nature and extent of those 
 changes, to have reviewed the history of our statistical pro- 
 gress, and to have given some consideration to the character 
 and scope of our present arrangements for collecting, re- 
 cording, and publishing the information obtained through 
 their instrumentality. In pursuing this plan, I should have 
 had to derive my facts from the various tables compiled for 
 public use, and though in dealing with them I might have 
 had some advantage from having through many years of 
 official engagement become conversant with their details 
 and uses, the conclusions to which I might have been led 
 would have been entirely of personal authority, and have 
 been in no way invested with official sanction. In like 
 manner, for any opinions I may now express or inferences I 
 may draw — myself, and myself alone, must be hold respon- 
 sible. Having, however, proceeded some distance in the 
 path thus marked out, I became aware of two serious diffi- 
 culties which stood in the way of a satisfactory completion 
 of the task on the present occasion. In the first place, an 
 unlooked-for delay in the compilation of the annual state- 
 ment, which it was fully expected would have been in the 
 printer's hands at the termination of last quarter, prevented 
 the necessary figures from beiug available. Had the read- 
 ing of this paper taken place earlier in the session it might 
 have been well to have dealt with the figures for 1871, pub- 
 lished in the December monthly account, imperfect and 
 insufficient as they might be ; but since those of the revised 
 and perfected annual accounts are so near being ready, 
 it seemed a pity to em]iloy any considerable amount of time 
 or labour upon those which are subject to con*ection ; and 
 still moi*e undesirable to place on record quantities or calcu- 
 lations which would, though even in minor particulars,
 
 4 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 differ from the final results of the yearns transactions. And 
 in the second placo^my object being to put before you such 
 a statement of the principles upon which our collection of 
 statistics rests, of the sources from whence they are derived, 
 of the manner in which they are dealt with, and the results 
 which these labours produce, as may in some measure 
 explain their value and aid in their employment, I found it 
 impossible to compress these remarks within less space than 
 is afforded by the limited time that I am privileged to ask 
 your attention. I am, therefore, most reluctantly compelled 
 to fail for the present in the first part of my self- allotted 
 task, and to seek your indulgence for confining myself to 
 such observations as it may be in my power to ofier upon 
 the latter portion of the subject. Should I in so doing over- 
 step the line which separates matters of public or special 
 interest from those of purely ofiicial importance, you will, I 
 trust, make allowance for the difiiculty of getting out of the 
 groove in which the thoughts of an official are so apt to 
 traverse. If, again, I may seem to enter upon details which 
 are of too trivial a nature to warrant being brought under 
 your notice, I would ask you to bear in mind that the 
 integrity of the accounts depends upon the care which is 
 taken to secure accuracy in the original rendering of small 
 particulars; and seeing to what an extent the official depart- 
 ment must be dependent upon the public interest in the 
 attainment of this object, I would hope to enlist your sym- 
 pathy with such an end, and to provoke your individual and 
 collective influence towards its attainment. It must be quite 
 needless to enlarge upon the advantage to a great commer- 
 cial country like ours, of having all the information which 
 can serve to illustrate the progress of its commerce collected 
 together; neither can it be requisite to dilate upon the 
 necessity that such information should be as full and accurate 
 as it is possible to make it; but it may not be unimportant 
 to familiarize the minds of those who furnish the materials 
 for, and those who make use of, the publications of this kind, 
 with some of the processes by which they are prepared, and
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. ' 5 
 
 the means by wLicli their completeness and truthfulness may 
 be secured. 
 
 I. — Methods Adopted for Cofleding Statistics. 
 
 The earliest attempt to obtain anything like a systematic 
 collection of authentic commercial statistics, would seem to 
 have taken place inthe year 1G97, when theoffice of Inspector- 
 General of Imports and Exports was established on a system, 
 by which ''provision was made that an account should be 
 kept of the trade carried on by England with each foreign 
 country and each of the British settlements and possessions 
 abroad, showing the goods imported and exported, methodi- 
 cally enumerated and classified ; their quantities by weight, 
 tale, or measure ; and their equivalent in money, computed 
 at certain official rates of valuation then first assigned." 
 The necessary information was obtained and condensed by 
 tabulation into prescribed forms at the several ports through- 
 out the kingdom, and being transmitted to this office by the 
 different collectors of customs, was then collected into the 
 required records. From these, as occasion offered, extracts 
 were made and collections formed in obedience to requisi- 
 tions from the proper authorities; or periodically presented 
 to Parliament and issued to the public by the Board of 
 Trade. In later years it was found that the Examiner's — an 
 office originally created to exercise a check upon the correct 
 receipt of the revenue — could conveniently collect the statis- 
 tics for the port of London, by a system which computed 
 the duties due upon each article of import in the process of 
 biinging them together for the use of the Inspector-General. 
 In 1849 this plan was extended to the out-ports, which, in- 
 stead of framing accounts each for itself, transmitted to the 
 Examiner duplicates of the original entries passed by the 
 importers. Thus his books of record contained the particu- 
 lars for the whole kingdom, and it became his duty to for- 
 ward the whole of the periodical accounts to the Inspector- 
 General, by whom they were again transcribed into tbo
 
 6 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 various appointed forms and books. This concentration of 
 the preliminary work under one head was a decided step in 
 the right direction. It ensured greater uniformity in deal- 
 ing with all matters of detail, lessened the time employed in 
 its performance, and considerably diminished the expense. 
 But there still remained the three offices — Examiner's, In- 
 spector-General's, and Board of Trade, all engaged in the 
 same duty. It became apparent that " to arrest the work 
 at a certain stage of advancement in one office, for the pur- 
 pose of committing its completion to an entirely different set 
 of workmen, involved a considerable sacrifice of both time 
 and strength, for which no corresponding advantage was 
 gained,'' and " that the union of the two Customs' depart- 
 ments would permit an earlier rendering of the periodical 
 returns, and result in a marked advancement of the service 
 in efficiency and economy." Yet it was not till 1870 that 
 effect was given to the recommendations made so far back 
 as 1857. Towards the close of the latter year, directions were 
 given for the fvision of these two offices into one ; that of 
 Inspector-General of Imports and Exports as well as that of 
 Examiner ceased to have an independent existence, and the 
 new " Statistical Department " undertook the whole duty ; 
 the Board of Trade ceasing to have any share in the pro- 
 duction of the accounts, but retaining its control over their 
 nature and form. This change, so long anticipated and 
 laboured for, has, notwithstanding the temporary confusion 
 incidental to a period of transition, been attended with marked 
 success, and gives promise of still greater satisfaction in its 
 further progress. 
 
 This office having thus become the depository for all the 
 information bearing upon commercial statistics, which it is 
 in the power of the customs' officers to collect; it is evident 
 that its work will resolve itself into the three branches of 
 recording facts, compiling accounts, and publishing returns; 
 and that, though these duties are primarily undertaken for 
 the service of the Government, they are intended ultimately 
 for the benefit of the public, and must, therefore, be so shaped
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 7 
 
 as to meet the wants of those for whom they are performed. 
 It may not be without interest to trace tlio successive pro- 
 cesses by which this is effected, and, in so doing, to take first 
 those which relate to the importation of foreign and colonial 
 goods. 
 
 II. — Imports. 1. Sources of Information. 
 
 There are three sources from which information regarding 
 these can bo obtained : the report by the master of the 
 vessel of the cargo she brings; the entry by each importer 
 of the precise portion of that cargo which belongs to himself; 
 and the accounts given by the officer who superintends the 
 vessel's discharge. Powers are confei-red by Act of Parlia- 
 ment upon the Board of Customs, to require from the first 
 two of these, such statements as may answer the desired 
 end ; the third, being its own servant, is necessarily 
 amenable to such orders as it may issue. The master of 
 every vessel is bound within twenty-four hours of his 
 arrival, and before breaking bulk, to report to the Collector 
 of Customs for the port at which he may arrive, the place 
 from whence he comes, with the number and description of 
 all the packages or parcels of goods comprised in his cargo. 
 Then the importer or owner is bound, before he can obtain 
 permission to have his goods landed, to make an entry 
 setting forth the ship in which, and the country from which 
 brought, the number of his packages, and description of his 
 goods, with their quantity by weight, tale, or measurement, 
 as well as their value. In the comparison of those two 
 statements we have the means of discovering whether one or 
 both have duly brought to the knowledge of the authorities 
 the fact of such importation, pecuniary penalties being 
 attaclied to negligence or inaccuracy in these respects. Tho 
 master has a general knowledge of the nature of the goods 
 he is bringing, but of their precise description or quantity, 
 aud still less of their value, he can have no means of forming 
 a correct opinion. These particulars, however, must bo
 
 8 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 (moro or less) known to the parties to whom they are con- 
 signed, and this knowledge tho Crown demands that they 
 shall impart to its officers, not from any inquisitorial desire 
 to know the secrets of each individuals trade, but for the 
 security of tho revenue, and the acquisition of statistical 
 information from those best qualified to afford it. 
 
 The importer's entries are of three kinds, first, those in 
 which the goods being liable to import duty, ho tenders 
 payment of the amount due upon them ; secondly, those on 
 which duty being chargeable, he wishes to place them in 
 bond until such time as he is ready to pay the duty, or to 
 re-export the goods without such payment ; and thirdly, 
 those on which no duty being due to the Crown, the goods 
 come into his possession so soon as landed. There is also 
 a fourth kind of entry, when the duty is paid upon goods to 
 be taken out of the warehouse. The first and second to- 
 gether include all the dutiable goods imported ; the first 
 and fourth the portion of the same delivered for home con- 
 sumption. 
 
 These entries are passed in duplicate, the originals, when ' 
 completed, becoming the warrants, by virtue of which the 
 goods they represent are delivered from the ship or ware- 
 house ', and the copies, technically termed bills, the founda- 
 tion for the statistical accounts ; for which purpose they are 
 forwarded daily from every port in the kingdom to the cen- 
 tral office in London. Those for articles on which duty is 
 being paid, must give correct quantities, otherwise the goods 
 are detained until the error is rectified. They have for 
 man}'" years past been recorded daily in the office registers; 
 but those on which no duty is taken, have not, till since the 
 general revision of last year, been so dealt with ; the records 
 being raised from separate accounts furnished by the officers 
 so soon after the discharge of the vessel as they can be made 
 up. Thus two systems prevailed, goods paying duty being 
 deemed an importation or delivery of the day on which the 
 entry was passed ; whilst others only dated from the com- 
 pletion of the lauding account, often weeks or months after
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. V 
 
 their actual arrival ; and the weekly or monthly return which 
 ought to have shown the full imports for the period, really 
 only included those which were finally examined, and tho 
 accounts respecting them made up. This has now been 
 altered, and since the commencement of last year every 
 entry is recorded at once. It therefore becomes of impor- 
 tance that the particulars they contain should be correctly 
 given, and means taken to detect and rectify any errors 
 which may creep in. This being done, it only remains for 
 the department faithfully to perform its functions, and 
 correct statistics must be the result. 
 
 2. Particulars required. 
 
 The points on which it is essential that accurate state- 
 ments should be made in these entries are four, relating, first, 
 to the country froui which tho goods are brought ; secondly, 
 tho description of each article ; thirdly, its quantity ; and, 
 lastly, its value. 
 
 A. Country of Origin. 
 
 For the guidance of the officers and all persons concernedin 
 the passing of entries, there is issued an authorized " List of 
 countries and di\asions of countries as they are henceforward 
 to be distinguished on the statistical records of the com- 
 merce and navigation of the United Kingdom." This list 
 formerly enumerated I 78 countries or parts of countries, 
 mauy of them being subdivided according to certain arbi- 
 trary boundaries, as, for instance, France and Spain, as 
 within and -without the Mediterranean ; the United States, 
 whether north or south. Many of these distinctions it was 
 found impossible satisfactorily to maintain, and others ap- 
 peared to bo useless. They were, therefore, swept away, 
 and a now list issued with only I I 2 distinct headings. Tho 
 result of this condensation will be tliat certain countries, 
 which have hitherto been sjiccified, will no longer have a 
 separate place, but be included with others in larger divi-
 
 10 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 sions. Thus the West Indies are now divided solely accord- 
 ing to nationality ; all those belonging to Great Britain 
 are included together, and the trade of Jamaica, Barbadocs, 
 &c., will be found merged with the smaller islands under 
 British West Indies. The presidencies of India and the 
 divisions of Australia are still separately retained. 
 
 A complicated question, however, here arises, as to the 
 way in which goods passing through other countries in tran- 
 sit to or from this should be dealt with ; whether as imports 
 or exports from or to the original country, or from that to 
 which they are shipped to this country or landed abroad. A 
 ship takes goods from London to Portland in America, to be 
 thence forwarded to Quebec; shall these be deemed as ex- 
 ported to the States or to Canada? Another brings goods from 
 Boulogne, which have been brought by rail from Marseilles, 
 which place they reached, from Naples. Are these to be impor- 
 tations from France or Italy ? In former times, when railway 
 transit and forwarding companies were unknown, a very simple 
 rule sufficed ; goods taken on board at any port were deemed 
 to be an importation from that port ; and goods sent to any 
 place were deemed, to be exported to the port at which the ship 
 in which they were sent was to unload her cargo. An adhe- 
 rence tothisrule leads now to the most anomalous results ; very 
 large quantities of goods are received or taken from here, on 
 " through rates,''^ which means that the journey is performed 
 in many stages, and with many changes of conveyance, and 
 yet it can be of little consequence how they are carried to or 
 from their viltimate destination or place of origin. It is 
 often mere matter of accident by which route they are con- 
 veyed ; yet it makes a vast difference to the trade accounts 
 whether they are assigned to one or the other, and may de- 
 stroy altogether the comparison of one year with the other. 
 This will be made plain by referring to the trade with British 
 India, or with the countries on the Pacific shores of America. 
 Goods shipped in Calcutta, by a vessel coming round the 
 Cape of Good Hope or through the Suez Canal, will be taken 
 as arriving from Bengal; but should they break their voyage
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 11 
 
 by a railway transit across the Istlimus, and bo re-sliipped at 
 Alexandria, they will bo entered as if from- Egypt. Again, 
 a Liverpool company is engaged in carrying goods to and 
 from Chili, Peru, and other countries in the Pacific, as well 
 as to Mexico, Cuba, the West India Islands, China, Japan, 
 &c. All those for places this side of the Isthmus of Panama 
 are rightly assigned to their respective countries, because 
 the Liverpool vessel receives or discharges them there ; but 
 all which are sent across the isthmus and there delivered by 
 the railway, or carried further by the ships of the same or 
 an allied company, are considered as from or to Colon in 
 New Granada, where the first vessel commences or ends her 
 voyage. JSTor is this evil one that can be easily remedied; 
 and, in the absence of a remedy, the old rule still prevails in 
 some instances, and in others the simpler plan is adopted of 
 disregai^ding the changes or breaks in conveyance, pro\aded 
 only the journey be continuous. Until this is universally 
 aclcnowlodgod, any attempt to ascertain the extent of our 
 trade with such countries as have indirect as well as direct 
 channels for the passage of their goods, or to compare the 
 results of different years, must be utterly fallacious. In all 
 cases the parties entering their goods at the Custom houses 
 here, must know from whence they are receiving or whither 
 they arc sending them, and it is quite as easy, indeed more 
 so, to declare the final rather than the intermediate port. 
 The only principle upon which it is safe to act, seems to be 
 that of considering tho terminal points in the journey the 
 goods jierform, as those of departure and arrival. [The 
 principle here contended for is now adopted, and since it is 
 tho practice to carry all imports to the country of origin, 
 and exports to that of ultimate destination, so far as these 
 are known, and are disclosed in the documents prepared by 
 the traders. It is probable, however, that some of thcso 
 escape being so noticed, and hence that the trade conducted 
 with countries reached by circuitous routes and inland com- 
 munication fails to be fully shown, whilst that with countries 
 having transit ports, is, to some extent, unduly magnified.]
 
 12 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 Yet this will fail to bo precise when they change hands be- 
 tween these points, and is at best insufficient to deal with those 
 which are re-packed or arranged for further transit. Jamaica 
 at one time owed its commercial importance to being the 
 depot for goods afterwards sold to the traders with South 
 America. St. Thomas and Nassau are still places of con- 
 siderable trade, but of small consumption. There are some 
 countries, such as Switzerland (from her having no ports) , 
 with which we appear to have no trade ; and many, 
 Austria for instance, which show but little, because the 
 greater part passes through others ; although our relations 
 with both these may in reality be as direct as it is in cases 
 where it is more clearly manifest. It is very desirable that 
 attention should be directed to all these points, as showing 
 that many of the results at which we arrive cannot be taken 
 without some limitation, and also for the purpose of eliciting 
 opinions which may aid in the acquisition of perfectly accu- 
 rate statistical knowledge. 
 
 B. Descriptions of Goods. 
 
 The next essential point is that which determines the 
 precise description of the articles imported. This, like the 
 country of origin, is regulated by a " List of articles of mer- 
 chandise, imported into the United Kingdom, showing the 
 designations by which they are to be distinguished," enume- 
 rating 389 distinct articles, and having an appendix for 
 " certain articles which are not specifically enumerated in the 
 import list, showing the revised denominations under which 
 they are to be distinguished in the entries,^^ in which 417 
 other articles are mentioned. The lists under which the 
 articles were kept in the accounts prior to last year were ex- 
 tended to 886 heads, embracing numerous subdivisions now 
 omitted, because it had been found that the attempt to keep 
 them up only tended to produce errors. In the case of 
 articles of large import and distinctive character, there is no 
 difficulty in determining to what denomination they belong.
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 13 
 
 Wheat, cotton, tea, wine, at once assume their proper posi- 
 tion, but with many articles, manufactured ones especially, 
 the class in which they should be placed is very doubtful. 
 A clock, for instance, would seem to be a clear title under 
 which to include every description, but in many of those 
 imported, the timepiece is the least valuable part ; for the 
 case and stand may be works of art, of metal, porcelain, 
 wood, or other material, and would then properly fall under 
 one of these heads. The list at present in use has been 
 prepared with much care, with a desire to give a distinct 
 place to every article of commercial importance, and to ex- 
 clude those of limited or unfrequcnt importation ; yet many 
 are excluded or grouped together, which the importers or 
 producers of the article would wish to see specially distin- 
 guished. It is to bo feared that in the condensation which 
 has taken place, information which for many reasons would 
 be very valuabje has ceased to be noted. Those who con- 
 sult these accounts from time to time discover omissions 
 which they regret, and endeavour to have them repaired ; 
 but there is this great difficulty, that any alteration not only 
 increases labour, but destroys comparison with the accounts 
 already published under a different regulation. 
 
 c. Quantities. 
 
 The third point has reference to the quantities of the 
 article. With those that are liable to duty there is not so 
 much difficulty, since sooner or later they will be weighed or 
 measured for the assessment of duty ; but for those which 
 yield no revenue this would be impracticable. Besides the 
 expense, it would involve such a delay in dealing with the 
 goods as to seriously impede the operations of trade ; and in 
 very many cases goods are so packed as to make it trouble- 
 some and destructive to ascertain the contents of the pack- 
 ages in which they are contained. Until recently, the im- 
 porter's entry for free goods, although stating the number, 
 weight, or measurement, as the case might be, was not
 
 14 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 taken as correct until endorsed by an officer who, without 
 actually examining the goods, exercised such a supervision 
 over their landing as would, it was thought, enable him to 
 detect any serious error. With dutiable goods goinginto bond, 
 no weight, &c,, at all was stated by the importer, and none 
 could therefore be taken to account until the necessary exa- 
 mination of the goods discovered the exact quantity. It 
 was proposed many years ago, that the importers should 
 render an account of the contents of their several packages, 
 but a fear lest they should not be able to do so with sufficient 
 accuracy prevented this plan being adopted until recently. 
 The extreme importance, however, of obtaining information 
 on this point at an early period, and the consideration that 
 in dealing with large numbers of entries, minor errors would 
 balance each other so as to leave the ultimate results sub- 
 stantially accurate, induced a change of system. Now the 
 first records are made from the importer's entries. Most 
 articles are brought here in packages of certain recognized 
 sizes, the usual weight or measurement of which become 
 known to those through whose hands they pass, and even in 
 the absence of any invoice or other statement, the exercise of 
 ordinary care in computing the quantity a number of pack- 
 ages will contain, is certain to give a very near approach to 
 accuracy. 
 
 As before stated, in the case of goods liable to duty on 
 consumption in the United Kingdom, it becomes necessary 
 for revenue purposes to ascertain the exact quantities, and 
 therefore the statement in the entry is only provisional. It 
 may and does serve a temporary purpose, but the permanent 
 records are corrected so soon as the landing accounts are 
 made up. The same means of correction do not exist with 
 respect to goods that are free of duty. These are subjected 
 only to a cursory inspection by the examining officers, who 
 are directed to satisfy themselves by examination of the 
 goods or the wharfinger's landing accounts, that the variation 
 is not excessive. If the error be beyond lO per cent., either 
 more or less, a coiTection is made, but those of a lesser
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 15 
 
 degree are tLought to balance each other, on the principle 
 that where the basis on which the calculation rests is sound, 
 the average result may bo safely taken. Given the usual 
 weight of a cask of tallow, or the contents of a pipe of wine, 
 and it is very improbable that the sum of a thousand esti- 
 mates will be very far from the truth. 
 
 D. Values. 
 
 There remains then but one point in which the accuracy 
 of the statistics depends upon that of the information derived 
 from the importer's entry, namely, the value, and this is 
 one of great difficulty, the results hithei'to obtained being 
 far less satisfactory than they have been in other respects. 
 So far as regards any particular ai'ticle, and comparison in it 
 of one year with another, quantity is a far better test than 
 value, the one being a fixed, the other a fluctuating stan- 
 dard ; but for the purpose of bringing together the various 
 articles which each country sends us, or of ascertaining tho 
 extent of our trade WTth the whole world, no other means 
 exists but the reducing of all to one common equivalent. 
 The asking of these values from the importer is quite an 
 innovation on previous methods of acquiring this knowledge. 
 Previous to 1871, the real values of all articles that could bo 
 entered either by tale, weight, or measurement, was com- 
 puted, not declared ; the basis of computation being ob- 
 tained from special lists of prices furnished by appointed 
 agents, an examination of the ordinary prices current, and 
 any other available source which could guide the judgment 
 of those by whom they wore estimated. This system had 
 the defect that it could take but little account of tho special 
 qualities of tlio parcels of goods at any time imported, but 
 only the average market pi*icc of each month, excepting in 
 so far as the agent employed had knowledge of tho class of 
 goods then coming forward. For some articles, tin's ave- 
 rage was very accurately ascertained ; of these, tea may bo 
 cited as an example, but then almost all of it is brought to
 
 16 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 tho port of London, and is there disposed of by public sale, 
 or through tho instrumentality of a few brokers to whom tho 
 actual quality of each month's arrival is well known. But 
 in others, say wine, the quality, and therefore the value, 
 could scarcely bo ascertained; yet even in it a tolerably 
 correct average could be struck by those who had the oppor- 
 tunity of consulting the various importers. The present 
 system has great disadvantages, arising from the want of 
 knowledge on the part of the importers, the indifference of 
 many who pass the entries, and the impossibility of the de- 
 partment exercising a valid check. It is well known that 
 a very large proportion of the goods sent to this country 
 are on consignment, and not on purchase, in which case there 
 is no invoice or statement of prices. In these cases tho 
 consignee is very much in ignorance of their quality or 
 price,and therefore unabletofix a proper valueuntil they have 
 been examined and sampled. Where, again, as is very fre- 
 quently done, the entry is made by a mere agent, who may 
 gather the description of the goods from the ship's report, 
 and estimate the weight from the nature of the packages ; 
 there is no guide at all to the value. In other instances 
 there is great indisposition to let the true value be known. 
 Supposing, as is constantly the case, wine to be brought 
 from Hamburg in casks, branded with the mark of the best 
 Spanish vintages, it is very improbable that, however vile the 
 stuff may be, it will be valued at less than the price of good 
 sherry. The greatest vigilance, therefore, is necessary to 
 guard against the most erroneous values, but the department 
 can only interfere in extreme cases, for it is unable to discover 
 or question any but very extravagant departures from the 
 average. The law has given it the power of calling for in- 
 voices or other proof, which is frequently done, and fines 
 are often inflicted for wilful or careless departures from the 
 truth. The only real security, however, is in exciting an 
 interest amongst those who have to declare the value. When 
 once it is understood that these and other particulars are of 
 real importance, there is, in importers generally, too much
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 17 
 
 good feeling and desire to do what is right, to permit of 
 other than the best information it is in their power to give 
 being placed at the disposal of the authorities. There seems, 
 however, no way of providing for the very numerous cases 
 in which the consignee is ignorant of the value, pr the agent 
 who puts in the entry is without instructions to guide him. 
 At present, the change of system produces, in many articles 
 of import, an apparently great divergence between the 
 values of this and former years. Had the old plan, as was 
 done in 1851, been maintained for one or two years, in 
 conjunction with the new, it would have served as a basis of 
 comparison, and have shown whether the present method is 
 of sufficient accuracy to compensate for the labour and 
 cost its adoption entails. 
 
 In the earlier stages of the system established on the 
 formation of the Inspector-GeneraVs office, the value was 
 taken from fixed official rates, founded on the ascertained 
 prices which all known articles bore in the year lG9i ; with 
 the addition of such new articles as afterwards sprung up, at 
 the prices they each bore in the first year of their introduc- 
 tion. These values remained unaltered, and were used down 
 to 1870, for the computation of the "official value'' now 
 altogether abandoned. It was supposed that by a con- 
 tinuous computation of the value at the same rate year after 
 year, a comparative statement would be arrived at of the 
 true progress of trade ; and that by applying the same price 
 on all occasions, the total value would furnish a measure of 
 quantity. This was strictly true as regarded the articles 
 singly, and would also be true of them collectively, so long 
 as the relative quantities of each bore the same proportion to 
 that of others and to the whole. Thus France sends us both 
 wheat and wine ; if in any one year the quantities were 
 equal, but in another year the quantity of the one be reduced, 
 and that of the other increased, each by one half, the 
 "official value" of the whole, to be a measure of quantity, 
 ought to be the same ; but inasmuch as the rate of the two 
 articles would diiTcr, the calculated result would diflVr also.
 
 18 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 Againj tliis country is a largo impoi-tcr of agTicultural pro- 
 duce and raw material, many articles of which, fi-om increased 
 demand and diminished supplies, have greatly risen in 
 value ; and is a largo exporter of manufactured goods, 
 which, from improvements in machinery and extended em- 
 ployment of capital, have fallen in the cost of production. 
 Last year we imported, principally from France, 3,35 I, I o6 
 great hundred of eggs, valued at £1,265,484, and exported 
 to France 87,969,530 yards of cotton, at a value of 
 £1,688,094, leaving us creditors of that country, so far as 
 these two articles are concerned, for nearly half a million of 
 money. The actual value of the eggs was about 6s. per 
 great hundred, and of cotton 4^fZ. per yard, but the "official" 
 rates were gd. and is, 6d. respectively. Calculating the 
 values at these, the eggs would be worth but £ 1 25,666, and 
 the cottons £6,597,700, showing a balance in our favour of 
 nearly six and a half millions, instead of only a half million. 
 This is doubtless an extreme case, but some such process of 
 change has been going on in most of the articles and 
 countries with which we have trading relations. It is 
 clear, therefore, that any reliance upon the " official values " 
 could only lead to mistaken opinions and fallacious results. 
 It was considerations of this kind that led to the substi- 
 tution of a declared value for exports in 1798, and a com- 
 puted value for imports in 1854, this latter being again 
 changed last year to a declared value like that given for the 
 exports. 
 
 III. — Exports. 
 
 An analogous process to that thus described for the im- 
 ports is pursued with the exports of British produce and 
 manufacture. The countries are kept under the same head- 
 ings, and a similar list enumerates 2 11 articles of which a 
 separate account is kept, in lieu of 446 which the former one 
 contained, whilst an appendix describes the proper places to 
 which I 20 others are to be carried. The law imposes on every
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 19 
 
 shipper the duty of putting in a "■ specification '^ for each, 
 shipment, stating the vessel and country to which she is 
 proceeding, and the number of packages, with their contents 
 in quantity and value. This document must be filed within 
 six days after the sailing of the vessel, by which time also 
 her master or owner is bound to deliver a manifest setting 
 forth the whole contents of her outward cargo. The specifi- 
 cation and the manifest being compared together, show that 
 every article has been properly entered, and the same 
 provisions which secure a correct statement of the various 
 particulars on importation also rule with exporters. These 
 have for many years past furnished all the information pro- 
 cured respecting British goods, and with much greater 
 assurance that the weight and value can bo correctly given 
 than in the case of imports ; since these particulars must in 
 all cases be within the knowledge of those by whom the 
 goods are shipped. It is feared, however, that with regard 
 to both, there is less attention paid than there ought to be 
 to full and accurate information being given; and if it seems 
 that in these observations too much space has been given to 
 these small matters, it has been from the conviction that it 
 cannot be too widely known how utterly impossible it is for 
 the department to prepare or furnish coiTCct accounts, if the 
 materials put into its hands for that purpose are not sub- 
 stantially accurate. There has been too much disposition to 
 consider the passing of Customs entries as a mere formality, 
 imposing an impediment to the prompt transaction of com- 
 mercial business, a disagreeable duty to be got through or 
 slurred over with the greatest ease and rapidity. In many 
 cases, too, there is reason to think that there is an indispo- 
 sition to make known the full particulars, from a fear that in 
 so doing the nature of operations which it is not desirable to 
 divulge may thereby become known to others who fire pro- 
 bably rivals in trade. It is to be hoped, however, that a 
 more enlightened spirit will prevail, and that in proportion 
 as the benefits of full information on all points of trade 
 become felt, greater care will be exercised by all with whom
 
 20 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 it rests to make tho trade accounts as perfect as possible. If 
 what has been hero said on the subject have any effect in 
 helping on so desirable a result, the time and attention given 
 to it will not have been in vain. 
 
 [In republishing these observations as they were written, 
 it is necessary to express regret that they should have 
 been unfortunately open to the construction that they 
 were intended to throw discredit upon the method adopted, 
 whereas the object held in view in thus pointing out the 
 dangers which existed, and the difficulties which might 
 arise, was to incite those by whom the original entries were 
 prepared to greater diligence in ascertaining and furnishing 
 the correct particulars. That much trouble did arise from 
 this source is well known to all who transact this business ; 
 also that, even after years of experience and exercise of the 
 greatest care, there is room for much improvement in this 
 respect on the part of those who appraise and declare the 
 values of their goods.] 
 
 IV. — Nature of Records and Fuhlications. 
 
 If the foregoing remarks have, as it is hoped, fully ex- 
 plained the sources from which statistical information is 
 obtained, they will also have shown the nature of the re- 
 cords kept in the Statistical Department. Receiving the bills 
 each day, they are at once entered into appropriate regis- 
 ters, which show in detail the trade carried on, both inwards 
 and outwards, at each port in the United Kingdom ; these 
 are ranged under Articles and Countries, and specify in 
 each case the quantity in its appropriate denomination, and 
 the value as declared by the parties passing the several 
 entries. By the addition together of the several items and 
 tabulating the totals in proper forms, every description of 
 information within the range supplied by the first entries 
 can be obtained at pleasure. Their stated use is to supply 
 the periodical returns to be laid before Parliament, or pub- 
 lished in the ^'Gazette" for public information, but they
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 21 
 
 arc also drawn upon to no small extent for special accounts 
 moved for by mcmLers of Pai'liament, and supplied to tho 
 Government, or, by its direction, to various individuals or 
 public bodies making application for them. Records of this 
 nature, more or less fully compiled, are in existence fj-oin 
 the year 1696, and every successive year adds to the sum of 
 the knowledge we possess of tho history and progress of our 
 national industry and commerce. 
 
 The magnitude of this work will appear from the number 
 of documents which have to be dealt with. Those for goods 
 paying duty on arrival or going into the warehouse, many 
 of which contain more than ono article, exceed i 20,000 
 annually; those for free goods, 230,000; for delivery from 
 the warehouses on payment of duty, 1,300,000 : for the ex- 
 ports there are close on 1 00,000 for dutiable articles, many 
 of them containing six to ten items, and for British goods 
 more than 500,000, averaging five or six articles in each. 
 These have to be distributed over the 135 ports in the United 
 Kingdom, subdivided into tho 600 articles contained in tho 
 two lists, and the 1 1 2 countries. 
 
 The regular publications for which the department is re- 
 sponsible arc, 1st, a weekly account of corn, inserted in each 
 Tuesday's " London Gazette,'' containing a statement of 
 all that has been imported or exported up to the preceding 
 Saturday ; 2nd, tho Monthly returns of trade printed for 
 the House of Commons, and issued on the 7th of each 
 month, containing condensed accounts of the principal 
 articles of imports and exports during the preceding montli, 
 aud a cumulative account for so many months as have 
 elapsed in the same year, compared with similar periods in 
 two preceding years ; 3rd, Quarterly accounts of the value of 
 merchandise imported, and the British produce aud manufac- 
 tures exported to each foreign country and British posses- 
 sion in the past quarter, and six, nine, or twelve months in 
 each of the three years ; and, 4th, an Annual Statement of a 
 nmch more elaborate character, which makes its appear- 
 ance in the shape of a largo quarto volume, after the pro-
 
 22 THE OFFICIAL TllADE 
 
 ceding accounts have been subject to revision and cor- 
 rection. 
 
 A variety of tables are also published in the " Statistical 
 Abstract for Fifteen Years/^ issued annually by the Board of 
 Trade; and much valuable information is given in the Annual 
 Report presented by the Commissioners of Customs. 
 
 In using these accounts, it is needful to bear in mind that, 
 for reasons to be presently explained, those for the weekly, 
 monthly, and quarterly periods are all prepared from the 
 importers' entries, and therefore liable to correction; but 
 that the Annual Statement has bestowed upon it all the care 
 which it is possible to give, and is, before publication, made 
 as correct in all particulars as it is in the power of the office 
 to make it. 
 
 V. — Alterations in System. 
 
 In the system on which these accounts are prepared, as 
 well as in the form in which they are issued, very great 
 alterations took place at the beginning of last year. Nume- 
 rous complaints having been made both in Parliament and 
 the public prints, that they were delayed so long as to be 
 practically useless, and that they seldom agreed with the 
 statements put forth by other parties, a Treasury committee 
 was appointed, by whom the whole subject was thoroughly 
 investigated, and on whose recommendation the changes 
 took place. The delay in the production of the monthly 
 account was found to arise from an endeavour to compile it 
 from the landing accounts, which often take six weeks or 
 two months in completion ; and the differences between the 
 official and private statements, from the fact that all these 
 landing accounts could not be got in for the proper month, 
 and, therefore, some of them had to stand over till the fol- 
 lowing one. In reality, the official account was not, nor did 
 it pretend to be, an accurate one for the specific month, but 
 only so far as the examination of the goods had been com- 
 pleted in time for them to be included. The assumption that
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 23 
 
 SO much as was left out at one time would bo compensated 
 by an equal quantity on the next occasion, proved utterly 
 fallacious, as was thus represented to the committee: — " If 
 this information [the landing officer's account] could in all 
 cases be obtained prior to the preparation of the account, it 
 would be, in every respect, the most satisfactory source from 
 whence it could be supplied, but weeks and months often 
 elapse before it is received. In one bundle of bills acciden- 
 tally taken for inspection, all of which were going into the 
 October account, only eight properly belonged to that 
 month, whilst there were eight, eight, and ten, belonging to 
 June, July, and September respectively. It thus happens 
 that the monthly account, as published about the 2-jth of the 
 succeeding month, contains only a portion of the month's 
 imports, -with a largo remanet from the preceding month, 
 and smaller quantities of two, three, and four months further 
 back. The weekly account of corn is probably two or three 
 weeks out of date. It is true the average may be correct, 
 but so great are the fluctuations in the arrivals, that, as at 
 present given, the accounts aflford no sort of reliable infor- 
 mation for the specific period they profess to represent. So 
 serious is the divergence from the truth, in the article of tea 
 for instance, that the account would often be many millions 
 of pounds out, but that a plan has recently been adopted of 
 adding an estimate of the quantity arrived but not weighed, 
 thus altogether departing from the principle of using only 
 such landing accounts as are made up. In tobacco, wine, 
 brandy, and sugar, it is known that the deficiencies must be 
 quite as large, but no means exist of obtaining estimates." 
 '' Would it not be well that these statistics should be divided 
 into two classes ? The one possessed of transitory interest, 
 as the guide for present commercial and financial purposes, 
 the other of lasting value as the permanent record of tlie 
 national trade and progress. For the one (embracing weekly 
 and monthly accounts), early publication is essential, whilst 
 only a proximate accuracy and fulness is required. For tlio 
 other, that they should be strictly correct and full in detail.
 
 24 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 wliilst sufficient time may bo taken in their preparation to 
 ensure these important requisites. What is wanted in the 
 first case, is not a statement of such goods as are actually 
 landed and accounted for, but of such as are really in the 
 country, available for consumption, the subject of bargain 
 and sale, and capable of influencing calculations as to future 
 operations. This information the mercantile world have at 
 present no means of obtaining, except from the circulars of 
 the brokers or others engaged in particular branches of 
 trade, which are only to be relied upon to the extent of the 
 knowledge within reach of their several compilers. To give 
 eflfect to this view it is proposed that in the first instance the 
 importer's account of weights, &c., should be taken at once 
 instead of waiting for the landing officer's return. That from 
 these the records in the registers should be made, reserving 
 an additional column or spare line in which to insert the 
 true quantity when ascertained. These entries would be 
 made from day to day, and at the close of the month adopted 
 for the transitory account. So soon as accurate information 
 can be obtained, a correct total should be made for the 
 annual and permanent one. In this mode the one might be 
 ready in three to five days after the month ends, instead of 
 the 20th or 25th as at present ; and for the other we should 
 obtain that which now we never get, a really true record of 
 the imports of each respective month." These representa- 
 tions and suggestions met with approval, and have been 
 carried out since 1st January, 1871. How far the anticipa- 
 tion of approximate accuracy for the prompt account, and 
 of real results for the permanent one, have been realized, 
 will appear from the following table of the weights as given 
 by the importers' entries, and the actual quantities of the 
 principal dutiable goods imported within the year.
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 
 
 25 
 
 
 Importers' Entries. 
 
 Actual Quantities. 
 
 Percentage of Error. 
 
 Cocoa 
 
 17,096,729 
 
 189,977,648 
 
 1,040,619 
 
 13,984,412 
 
 1 1,086,362 
 
 171,094,275 
 
 72,231,263 
 
 16,605,774 
 
 17,132,236 
 
 191,907,045 
 
 1,024,940 
 
 14,007,514 
 
 1 1 ,232,2.S4 
 
 109,770,570 
 
 70,592,930 
 
 10,821,045 
 
 - 0*2 I 
 
 - lOI 
 
 + 1-53 
 
 - 4-27 
 
 - 1-30 
 + 077 
 
 - 570 
 
 - 1-30 
 
 Coffee 
 
 Currants 
 
 Siiirits 
 
 SiiTiir 
 
 Tea 
 
 Tobacco 
 
 Wine 
 
 
 All dutiable ar-"| 
 tides together, f 
 
 492,431,233 
 
 499,905,922 
 
 - 1-50 
 
 Theso articles are selected because, for revenue purposes, 
 they are actually weighed or measured ; and there can be no 
 reason for supposing that in those which are not so tested, 
 the importers^ entries need be less correct. This change is 
 the basis of the present system, rendering it possible to pro- 
 duce the monthly account sufficiently early to be of material 
 use, and making it a substantially accurate statement of the 
 transactions of the period which it professes to represent. 
 
 The other groat feature in the altered accounts, which has 
 before been entered upon so fully, is that of substituting a 
 declared for a computed value. There are no means of test- 
 in<r the results of this in the same manner as there arc with 
 the weights,and as yet (1872) it has not been in operation long 
 enough to affirm with certainty that it may not secure as 
 correct returns as were formerly obtained, although the ten- 
 dency of many observations is to point in a conti-ary direction. 
 
 Allusion has before been made to the fusion of the two 
 statistical offices into the one present department, and the 
 direct publication of the returns which emanate from it as 
 the means whereby much economy of time and uniformity 
 in practice has been promoted. In addition to this, the 
 practice has been introduced of prolonging the official 
 labours for the three or four first days of the month, to a lato 
 hour in tho evening, according to a ])lan for ox])cditiug tho 
 preparation of the accounts proposed in 1857, but only now
 
 '20 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 carried out. Without this it would bo impossible to collect 
 together the innumerable items, the totals of which fill two 
 columns in every one of tho fifty or sixty pages which make 
 up the monthly issue ; and thus secure its early production, 
 without at all interfering with the current work. 
 
 Although not exactly appertaining to the object with 
 which this paper has been written, it maybe satisfactory shortly 
 to state that these several alterations and improvements have 
 been conjoined with a considerable reduction of the amount 
 formerly expended in the production of statistics. It is very 
 difficult to estimate how much of the charges for the Cus- 
 toms establishment must be set down to the collection of the 
 I'cvenue, or how much to the multifarious duties, unconnected 
 with the receipt of money, which it has to perform ; but an 
 examination of the Estimates for last year, as well as this, in 
 comparison with those for 1870, will show a saving in the 
 Statistical offices alone of some £ 1 8,000 per annum, being 
 from a- third to one-half of the previous annual expenditure. 
 
 VI. — Bill of Entry. 
 
 Notwithstanding the length to which this paper has ex- 
 tended, the subject would be left incomplete were no men-, 
 tion made of another branch of statistics relating to trade, 
 which, though springing from an unofficial source, are often 
 confounded with those of official origin, namely, the publi- 
 cations of the Bill of Entry in London, and many of the larger 
 ports. These comprise daily lists of ships arriving and sailing, 
 with accounts of their cargoes and other particulars of consi- 
 derable interest to the trading community, as is evidenced 
 by the large sale of these printed lists. In addition to these, 
 manuscript accounts are rendered on special application. It 
 is not perhaps so generally known as it might be, that for a 
 moderate charge any kind of information that can be gleaned 
 from the Customs records is supplied by this office, and, 
 though not possessing any official authority, it may be relied 
 on as obtained from official sources. The office from which
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 27 
 
 these are issued, though having a local habitation in tho 
 Custom House at London, and more or less intimately con- 
 nected with those at other ports, is not at all under the 
 authority of the Customs Department; it is a singular rem- 
 nant of the old times, when peculiar pnvileges were con- 
 ferred on favoured individuals for their pecuniary advantage. 
 One of these acquired, in the year IGGO, by letters patent, 
 the exclusive right of access to all official documents con- 
 nected with the Customs reports and entries, and of obtain- 
 ing and publishing any portion of the information they con- 
 tain. This patent has some years yet to run, having been 
 renewed upon satisfactory evidence having been adduced 
 that the work it performs is of public utility, and such as no 
 other machinery is in existence to carry on. It has been 
 proposed for the Government to take over the duties of this 
 office, and to merge them in those of the Statistical Depart- 
 ment ; but it is at least questionable whether the kind of busi- 
 ness it transacts is one which could be managed ^vith the same 
 profit as by private parties, or whether much of it could be 
 efficiently regulated under the system of management neces- 
 sary for a public office. It is certainly not that which ought 
 to be performed at the public cost, but should, as it is, bo 
 paid for by those for whom it is done. An additional reason 
 for maintaining it on the present footing is to be found in 
 the circumstance that the patent is held by the trustees of 
 the Customs' Benevolent Fund, which is conducted on the 
 principles of a life assurance society for the benefit of the 
 widows and children of Customs officers. All tho profits ac- 
 (juircd by the Bill of Entry business go in aid of the pre- 
 miums paid on life assurance and annuity policies taken up 
 exclusively by members of the Customs Department, of whom 
 it cannot be said that they are an overpaid portion of tho 
 public service. [Since this paragraph was written the patent 
 has expired, but, pending permanent arrangements, those 
 already in existence remain in operation.]
 
 28 THE OFFICIAL TRADE 
 
 VII. — Conclusion, 
 
 In gathering up the substance of the foregoing some- 
 what discursive statement, it may be repeated, — 
 
 That the object of our system of trade statistics is to keep 
 an accurate record of the trade carried on by each port in 
 the United Kingdom, in every article of import and export; 
 distinguishing that with each foreign country or British 
 possession; and showing the quantity and value of the 
 several goods. To collect their several items into weekly, 
 monthly, quarterly, and yearly totals, tabulated in conve- 
 nient forms ; and to publish these at the respective periods. 
 
 That the Board of Trade prescribes the nature and extent 
 of the returns so given, which, under the authority and 
 direction of the Treasury and Board of Customs, are prepared 
 and published. That these returns are condensed and sim- 
 plified in the number of countries or divisions of countries 
 shown, and in the number of articles specified ; it being de- 
 sired to show distinctly each article of importance by itself, 
 and those not sufiiciently important in groups or classes. 
 
 That this preparation and publication devolves upon the 
 Statistical Department, which receives, with some few ex- 
 ceptions, daily from every port in the United Kingdom, in 
 original when they can be spared for the purpose, or other- 
 wise in duplicate, the several documents by which the 
 owners of the goods enter and clear them ; and from these 
 compiles the records and publishes the returns. 
 
 That the several importers and exporters are required, 
 under penalty imposed by Act of Parliament, to supply all 
 the information required in the several particulars of country, 
 goods, quantity, and value. 
 
 That the Statistical Department possesses checks for the 
 countries, and, to some extent, the goods, in the masters^ 
 reports of cargo ; upon the quantities or the weights, &c., 
 so far as dutiable goods arc concerned, and in a cursory 
 inspection over goods free of duty, taken and exercised by
 
 AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 29 
 
 tho Customs officers, upon whom the safety of the revenue 
 rests. But that for the value, it has no means of ascertain- 
 ing whether it is correct or not, excepting by a demand for 
 the invoices or other proof, whenever a wide departure 
 from the usual average justifies a call for these documents ; 
 and that unless the information furnished as to value be in 
 all, or nearly all, cases so much more precise than could be 
 obtained by any estimate or calculation, all tho labour of 
 this method will be entirely lost. 
 
 That through the alterations recently made in the Statis- 
 tical offices by the union of the two into one, by the simplifi- 
 cation of the particulars given and distinctions preserved, 
 by the extension at certain seasons of the hours of atten- 
 dance for the various employes, and by the direct action of 
 the department, the monthly account has been diminished 
 in bulk, and is now issued on the 7th instead of the 25th of 
 each month, containing all the transactions of the month to 
 which it relates; and that tho publication of the Annual 
 Statement can be much expedited. 
 
 That by these alterations the charge upon the estimates 
 for statistical work is reduced to between two-thirds and 
 one-half of what it formerly was. 
 
 From all that haa been said, it will be apparent that, with 
 honesty and accuracy on the part of those who provide the 
 information, and fidelity and industry on the part of the 
 Statistical Department, the means exist of supplying full, 
 trustworthy, and complete intelligence of the country^s pro- 
 gress in its commercial intercourse with the whole world. 
 
 In conclusion, allow me to repeat, that in thus bringing 
 these several points to your notice, my object has'bcen two- 
 fold ; to explain and assist the use of the several statis- 
 tical publications which are prepared at the expense of tho 
 country, and to bring all the influence which it is possible to 
 obtain, to bear upon the accuracy and fulness of tho infor- 
 mation on which they are founded. If, in so doing, I have 
 failed to collect or impart the statistical facts or results 
 which might have been expected from this paper, the Society
 
 30 THE OFFICIAL TRADE AND NAVIGATION STATISTICS. 
 
 may command my services to repair the omission in any way 
 it sees fit to prescribe. If^ in entering upon so many details, 
 1 may be thought to have attached undue value to matters 
 of minor importance, I trust they will not therefore be 
 deemed to bo of but little moment. And if, in dealing with the 
 subject, I have prolonged these observations to a wearisome 
 length, I trust you will set it down to the enthusiasm of one 
 who has spent the best part of an official life, now long past 
 its meridian, in constant efforts to increase the value, lessen 
 the cost, and improve the character of the various records 
 and publications which make up the sum of our trade 
 statistics.
 
 II. 
 
 The Pkogeess op our Foreign Trade, Imports and Exports, 
 DURING Twenty Years, 1854-74/ 
 
 THERE are two purposes for which statisticians exist ; 
 two objects to be kept steadily in view by every col- 
 lector of statistical information. The first is that of carefully 
 gathering together facts and figures on every subject " cal- 
 culated to illustrate the position and prospects of society,'' 
 and so storing them up as to be accessible to all who may 
 need the information they afford. The second, that of from 
 time to time selecting from the stores so accumulated such 
 particulars as should command attention, whether from their 
 intrinsic importance or their relation to the subjects occupy- 
 ing the thoughts of those who may not have time or oppor- 
 tunity for the task of personal research — thus giving a 
 present value to past labour, and in eflTect materially influenc- 
 ing the course of human thought and action in all that re- 
 lates to the property of the nation or the welfare of its 
 members. It is the latter of these purposes which is at- 
 tempted to be served by the present paper. 
 
 There can be little question as to the importance of tho 
 subject, or the interest which is taken in it, by those who are 
 inhabitants of a country so essentially dependent for its pros- 
 perity upon the continued progress of the trade and manufac- 
 tures to w^hicli it owes its present greatness ; and a belief 
 that some light may bo thrown upon our present condition 
 
 ' Read before the Statistical Society, 18th May, 1875. "\'ol. xxxviii.
 
 32 rROGKESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, 
 
 and our future advancomcnt, by a careful consideration of the 
 history of tlio past, must be the excuse, if such be needed, 
 for this endeavour to place its more prominent features be- 
 fore the Fellows of this Society. 
 
 In thus tracing back for some years the course which our 
 foreign and colonial commerce has taken, recourse has been 
 had to the successive volumes of the " Annual Statement of 
 Trade and Navigation ^^ issued by the Statistical Department 
 of the Board of Trade, from 1833 to 1870, and since then by 
 the Statistical Department of the Customs. The whole of 
 the figures used are taken from these publications, and there- 
 fore rest upon official authority, although for their collection 
 into the tables appended to this paper and the calculations 
 or conclusions founded upon them, the writer is individually 
 responsible. The period of twenty yeai's has been chosen 
 not alone as a convenient one for which to exhibit the com- 
 parative results of our trading operations, but likewise from 
 the circumstance that in 1854 a change took place in the 
 method by which the import values and those for the ex- 
 ports of foreign goods were ascertained, which renders any 
 accurate comparison with former years quite impossible. 
 Prior to that year the values given were " official ; " since 
 that time " real ; " " computed " up to and including 1870, 
 and then " declared. ^^ By " official" is meant a calculation 
 from the quantities '^according to rates of value fixed so 
 long back as 1G94.^^ ^ By " computed real" is to be under- 
 stood the average market value, " including all the charges 
 of freight and landing, but exclusive of duties."^ The " de- 
 clared " values should represent '' the actual value of the 
 goods at the time of importation," ^ derived from a declara- 
 tion required from the importers on the first entries passed 
 by them for their goods. The " computed" and '' declared '' 
 values should in the aggregate be alike, and may therefore 
 be fairly compared with each other. Not so, however, with 
 the " official," as was shown by a comparison of the two for 
 
 1 "Preface to Annual Statement," 1854. 2 j^i^j^ 
 
 ^ "Monthly Account of Trade and Navigation," July, 1871.
 
 IMrOKTS AND EXPORTS, 18')4-74. 38 
 
 the year 1854, in which they were prepared upon both 
 
 systems, when — 
 
 X. 
 Tlic old offiirial value of imports amounted to' ... 124,338,478 
 New computed real value 152,591,813 
 
 Showing an exce.ss of real value of 22 J per cent.= 28,253,335 
 
 At the same time the exports of foreign and colonial pro- 
 duce were— 
 
 £ 
 
 Old official value 29,821,656 
 
 New real value 18,648,978 
 
 The old value being in excess 38 per ('cnt.= 11,172,678 
 
 Two or three instances, taken from the same source, will 
 still further illustrate the fallacy of this system, and show the 
 impossibility of comparing the results attained under it with 
 those under the present plan : — 
 
 18.-)4. New Keal Value. Old Official Value. 
 
 Wo(k1 
 
 Corn 
 
 Cotton, raw 
 Tea 
 
 r 
 
 f 
 
 11,064.094 
 
 1,812,(W0 
 
 21,760.283 
 
 10,138,778 
 
 20,175.395 
 
 •i,s,Go6,7o6 
 
 5>54oJ35 
 
 8,579,20.3 
 
 These examples are worthy of note, because it so often 
 happens that ignorance of the change of system leads to the 
 quotation of figures for values prior to 1854, as if they were 
 of cfjual worth to those from that date forward. The same 
 difficulty does not exist with regard to the export of British 
 goods, the declared value for them having been adopted as 
 far back as 1798. 
 
 Beiny: thus restricted in the date to which wo can <jfo back 
 for import values, the series commences with 1854. Another 
 year would liave been more satisfactory, since the Russian 
 
 ' " Annual Statement for 1H.>4." 
 U
 
 34 riiOGRESS OF OUR FOREKiN TRADE, 
 
 War, which then broke out, may \)0 deemed to have affected 
 the trade of tliat and tlie following year; h)ut not to bo 
 great an extent, however, as might be supposed, as will 
 appear from the official values for it, and the few preceding 
 years wherein there is much the same sequence, as is 
 manifested by the real values of Table I. for succeeding 
 years. 
 
 
 Impdrts. 
 
 British Exports. 
 
 1849 
 
 £ 
 
 105,884,263 
 100,469,067 
 110,484,997 
 
 io9.33i'i58 
 123,099,313 
 124,338,478 
 
 £ 
 63,596,025 
 
 '50 
 
 71,367,885 
 
 '51 
 
 74,448,722 
 
 '52 
 
 78,076,854 
 
 '53 
 
 '54 
 
 98,933.781 
 97.184,726 
 
 
 
 There are two aspects in which the commerce of the 
 kingdom may be viewed : the one embracing all goods im- 
 ported and exported, including those brought to it for a 
 market and again carried abroad; the other excluding these 
 and showing only the foreign and colonial goods retained, 
 and the British goods exported. The first may be deemed 
 the merchant's view, since to him it matters not whether the 
 goods he sells are for home or foreign use, of home or foreign 
 production. The latter, however, is the more important view 
 to the political economist, since the general condition of the 
 country is evidenced and influenced by its ability on the one 
 hand to pay for the goods it consumes, and, on the other, 
 by its power to produce and sell the articles on which the 
 employment of so large a portion of its population depends. 
 
 The several tables ' have been drawn out with the design 
 of clearly showing : — 
 
 Several of the tables to which reference is made have not been in- 
 serted ; and the same omission has been followed in those appertaining 
 to subsequent papers. Their bulk would have unduly swelled the 
 volume, aud possibly have given it a forbidding appearance. The
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1854-74. 35 
 
 1st. The gradual yearly progress of our commerce under 
 the three heads of original imports, re-exports, and reten- 
 tions for homo consumption or manufacture, with the per- 
 centage of increase or decrease upon its immediate prede- 
 cessor in each year, and upon 1854, the first year of the 
 series. Also, in like manner, the total exports, divided into 
 those of foreign or colonial oi'igin, and those of home pro- 
 duce or manufacture; but it must be borne in mind that the 
 exports of foreign and colonial articles thus shown are only 
 those which leave our hands in an unaltered condition, for if 
 subject to any manufacturing process or change of character, 
 they become classified as of British manufacture, and are in- 
 cluded as such in the columns devoted to that class. 
 
 2nd. The proportion of trade carried on both inwards and 
 outwards with the principal countries of whom we are cus- 
 tomers, and to whose markets we send our ])roductions. 
 These figures, on account of the space which would be 
 occupied by a statement of each year's traflBc, are only shown 
 for every fifth year, and the percentage of increase as before 
 upon the figures of 1854. A very imperfect idea, however, 
 will be given of the extent to which we trade with many 
 countries, from the indirect routes by which much of the 
 transport is effected, and the varying channels through 
 which this takes place. With some countries there is little 
 but direct trade. Russia, for instance, neither receives nor 
 sends us much but in vessels from or to her own ports and 
 ours; but Germany obtains a large portion of her supplies — 
 and forwards hers to us — through the ports of Holland, and 
 even by railway through France. The goods which in ordi- 
 nary seasons are shipped from Hamburg, when that port is 
 closed by the ice come to us via Altona, and then get 
 credited to Denmark. A line of steamers in connection with 
 the French steamers to the Ea«t, periodically takes large 
 
 special points of interest are in general incorporated witli the text, or 
 are contained in other pnpers, and references are given to the oriu'infll 
 vohimes in which they may be found by those who desire a more inti- 
 
 niato a('f|iuiiiitaiioo willi llicir details.
 
 36 TEOGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, 
 
 cargoos to Marseilles, for transmission to China, Hong 
 Kong, Japan, and other places ; and on their return voyages 
 they bring back cargoes from those countries transhipped at 
 the French port. ]iefore the Suez Canal was made, the 
 ships of the Peninsular and Oriental Company which now 
 go through the canal cleared out in this country for Egypt, 
 to which country the goods they carried wore deemed to be 
 exported ; and in like manner goods brought through the 
 Red Sea and overland to Alexandria, were treated as im- 
 ports from that place. The same, thing happens in the 
 winter season with goods to and from Canada via Portland 
 in the United States. This evil is, as stated in the "Monthly 
 Return " for January of the present year, in process of cor- 
 rection, and so far as the ultimate destination is known, the 
 exports are now credited to the countries to which they pro- 
 perly belong. Too much reliance must not, therefore, be 
 placed on the relative extent of our trade with the various 
 countries specified in the tables, since for this reason there 
 is in many cases much intermingling of one with the other. 
 Neither is it always right to judge of the growth or decline 
 from year to year of the trade with any particular country, 
 since with the starting of new lines of communication 
 material changes in this respect may and do arise. 
 
 3rd. The principal articles of which our imports and ex- 
 ports consist are separated for each fifth year in the same 
 manner as the countries are. 
 
 In all these tables we are dealing with the values — neces- 
 sarily so for the first and second pui'poses — since the totals 
 can only be obtained by reducing the denominations of 
 weight, measure, &c., in which the goods are taken to 
 account to the common measure of value in pounds sterling; 
 and this being done for the grand total as well as for the 
 amounts to and from the. different countries, it is well to 
 show the different articles in the same form. These sums, 
 however, fail fully to show the variations from year to year, 
 because, being founded upon the market prices existing at 
 the time, which are constantly shifting, it is necessary to
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1854-74. 
 
 37 
 
 take such fluctuations into consideration in arriving at a 
 correct judgment as to the real increase or decrease which 
 is taking place. To assist in arriving at right conclusions on 
 this point, there have been added tables, showing the quan- 
 tities of some of the articles of greatest magnitude, with the 
 percentage of increase for last year over that of the year 
 with which we commence. A comparison of the rates of 
 increase in the value and the quantity of each article will 
 show whether the additional value is duo to greater bulk or 
 to higher price. 
 
 It should be noticed that one portion of the goods brought 
 to and taken from this country is not included in any of the 
 tables, namely, those which are mei*ely sent hither to find a 
 vessel going to the place for which they are destined, and 
 are transhipped from one ship to another without being 
 landed here, A somewhat rough account is taken of their 
 value (and in many cases the quantities of the articles). 
 This is of some importance, because thus passing into and 
 out of our waters they furnish employment for our ships and 
 men, and its increase is an element of additional mercantile 
 or maritime prosperity. 
 
 The whole value of these transhipments during the past 
 twenty years is as follows:' — 
 
 [In iiiillion £"s to two dcciiiials.] 
 
 1854. 
 
 '55. 
 .'06. 
 
 '57. 
 
 '58. 
 
 '59. 
 
 '60. 
 
 '61. 
 
 '62. 
 
 '63. 
 
 '64. 
 
 5-05 
 
 4-58 
 4-51 
 4"49 
 6-65 
 
 5-14 
 442 
 
 4-71 
 
 5-3^ 
 5"99 
 
 £ 
 
 6-47 
 772 
 6-66 
 
 18G5 
 
 '66 
 
 '67 
 
 '68 7-28 
 
 '69 8-12 
 
 '70 10*94 
 
 '71 11-36 
 
 72 13*90 
 
 '73 1 376 
 
 '74 I "1-42 
 
 ' It would liiivi.' <listiirl)C<l tlio wliole course of the artruniont to have 
 carriod on tlic several lifiures to last year, wlien trade had ai:aiii he- 
 come depres.sed. The figures therefore for the five years whiih iiuve 
 
 42.'Jc*«.'?
 
 38 l'KU(JUKSS OF OLU lOllEIGN TUADI':, 
 
 Before speaking of the general results, it may bo expe- 
 dient to take the several tables in whieh these are shown, 
 and point out the nature and peculiarities of each, bearing 
 in mind that the great object of this paper is to draw atten- 
 tion to the disparity between the transactions in the first and 
 the last years of the series selected. 
 
 In Table I. we find that a total import, valued in 18o4 at 
 £152,300,000, had grown by 187-4 to one of £370,000,000, 
 an increase of 143 per cent., or at the rate of rather more 
 than 7 per cent, per annum ; not, indeed, by regular ad- 
 vances, for there are many fluctuations in the rate of pro- 
 gress, the years of greatest increase being 1856, 1860, 
 1863-64, 1866, 1871, and 1872, those of retrogression being 
 1855, 1858, 1865, 1867, and 1874. The second column of 
 the table shows the extent to which the goods thus imported 
 were again taken away to other countries, the whole impor- 
 tations during the twenty-one years amounting to 5,340 
 millions of pounds sterling, and the re-exportations to 860 
 millions, or about one-sixth part. The increase in this 
 branch of trade has been proportionally greater than that of 
 the imports, namely, 209 per cent,, or at the rate of lolrper 
 cent, per annum, and is somewhat more equally distributed ; 
 the years in which it has receded being 1858, 1866-67, 
 1869-70, 1872-73. In 1861 and 1862 there were great 
 steps upwards, and again in 1871, in which the highest 
 point was attained, namely, an advance on its predecessor 
 of 36 and on 1854 of 225 per cent., since when there has 
 been a continuous fall. Deducting the re-exports from the 
 original imports, we should arrive at the value of the goods 
 retained in the country. And here the increase is not so 
 
 elapsed since this paper was written, are in this and subsequent places 
 inserted for reference, in a foot-note only. 
 
 £ 
 
 1875 I2'i4 
 
 76 1082 
 
 '77 i2-i8 
 
 '78 1116 
 
 '79 10-98
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPOKTS, 1854-74. 39 
 
 great as that of the fir.st receipts, being but i 34 per cent. 
 This gives an annual rate of 6f per cent., fluctuating from 
 an increase in 1856 of 2 ry to a decrease in 1858 of 13-6 
 per cent, on the years immediately preceding. Those in 
 which the greatest rise took place were 1856, 1860, 1864, 
 1866, and 1872 ; those of falling oflf 1855, 1858, 1865, 1867, 
 and 1874. 
 
 Table II. exhibits similar statements for the exports. The 
 second column, that which .shows the foreign and colonial 
 re-exports, being necessarily identical with the same column 
 in Table I. The total increase here has been from i 16 mil- 
 lions in 1854 to 297 in 1874, or 156 per cent., giving an 
 average rate of nearly 8 per cent. — a more regular one th:m 
 in the imports — the greatest range being from an increase 
 in 1863 of i8"5 to a decrease in 1867 of 5'5 per cent. The 
 years of greatest increase were 1856, 1859, 186o-64, 1866, 
 and 1871-72, those of decrease 1858, 1861, 1867, and 1873- 
 74. The whole exports of the twenty-one years amounted to 
 £4,300,000,000, of which 860, or about one-fifth, were re- 
 exportations, leaving £3,400,000,000 as British produce or 
 manufacture. Of these latter the growth has been from 
 £97,000,000 in 1854 to £240,000,000 in 1874, or an aver- 
 age rate of 7 5 per cent, increase, the iri'egularities being as 
 great as iu the other cases, namely, from a decrease in 1861 
 from its predecessor of 7*9 to an increase in 1863 of i8"2 per 
 cent., the years of largest growth being 1856, 1859, 1863-64, 
 1866, 1871-2; those of reccdence 1855, 1858, 1861-2, 1867- 
 68, and 1.874. 
 
 In Table III.' the total value of the imports for every fifth 
 year is divided into that from our Colonial possessions, and 
 from Foreign countries ; and again, between the principal 
 possessions and countries, with the object of showing from 
 whence wo draw our supplies, and the variations in our re- 
 lations with each. To have done this for every year would 
 have taken up too much space, therefore only the perccnt- 
 
 ^ Fur Tal)k's III. to IX., see ".Ii.uriial of Statistical .'^ocicty," .Iiino, 
 
 1«7.5.
 
 40 PROGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, 
 
 ago of increase in 1874 upon 1854 has been drawn out in the 
 last column. From this table it will appear that the pro- 
 portion of receipts from our own possessions at present is 
 between one-third and one-fourth of the whole ; and that of 
 these India is by far the most liberal contributor to our wants, 
 four-ninths of our colonial supplies being drawn from thence. 
 Australia stands next, with rather more than two-ninths, 
 bidding fair by the rapidity of its increase to distance its 
 elder sister; the one having in the twenty years advanced 
 from £4,300,000 to £18,500,000, or 330 percent.; the 
 other from £13,000,000 to £37,500,000, or 189 per cent. 
 Mauritius and South Africa have advanced by 125 per 
 cent., and our North American possessions by half as much, 
 whilst the West Indies remain almost stationary, the increase 
 being but 4 per cent. Of foreign countries by far the 
 greatest sender, at this time, is the United States, from 
 whom we last year drew to the value of £74,000,000 out 
 of £289,000,000, or more than one-fourth of the whole. 
 Next to the States comes France with £47,000,000 or one- 
 sixth, then Russia with £21,000,000, and Germany with 
 £20,000,000. It must be observed, however, that for the 
 reason before alluded to these figures do not altoo-ether 
 accurately represent the relative trade of the different coun- 
 tries — ^France being credited with the goods from the East 
 which pass through her ports in transit ; the United States 
 with some which come from Canada ; Holland and Belgium 
 probably with that of Germany. The bulk of that from 
 Egypt is brought from the East, and the imports which used 
 to be landed on one side of the Isthmus and re-shipped on 
 the other now pass in increasing quantities through the Suez 
 Canal. 
 
 Table IV. serves the same purpose for the exports from 
 the United Kingdom, and here we find a not very different 
 proportion in the relative trade to British and foreign 
 places, from that which we observed in the imports, a total 
 of £297,000,000, giving £77,000,000 to our colonies. 
 The same countries, too, seem to be our largest purchasers.
 
 IMPORTS a:sd exports, 1854-74. 41 
 
 thougli not in the same relative degree. India takes 
 £29,000,000 out of the £77,000,000, and Australia 
 £21,000,000; but the latter does not advance with any- 
 thing like the same rapidity as the former, the respective 
 increases in 1874 over 1854 being 56 and i "/T, per cent. Of 
 the foreign countries, the United States is again one of the 
 largest dealers, £32,000,000 ; but Germany outstrips her 
 by more than £2,000,000, standing at the head of all with 
 £34,500,000. France comes next with £29,000,000, and 
 Holland with £23,000,000; all these being portions of the 
 £220,000,000 sent to foreign countries in 1874. The 
 total growth since 1854 has been from £i 1 6,000,000 to 
 £297,000,000, or 156 per cent.; British possessions have 
 risen from £36,000,000 to £77,000,000, and foreign 
 countries from £79,000,000 to £2 20,000,000, or 113 and 
 177 per cent, respectively. The same remark as to the efi'ect 
 of the transit trade applies to these figures as it did to those 
 of the import. 
 
 Table V. deals with the values of the principal articles 
 for the same years for which the previous table did with the 
 several countries, and in the same manner shows the in- 
 crease in the last year over the first. An attempt has been 
 made to divide the articles into classes, so as to show the 
 different rates of increase ; but this is somewhat imperfectly 
 done, from the difficulty of strictly defining to Avliich class 
 certain goods properly belong.' First in order stand those 
 which undeniably belong to articles of food, beginning with 
 grain and farinaceous substances, going on to living animals, 
 next to animal products, then to vegetable substances for 
 food and drink, supplemented by the addition of alcoholic 
 liquids and tobacco. It is here that the greatest increase 
 has taken place, for whilst that of the whole imports has 
 been but 143, this has been 165, or including spints, wine, 
 and tobacco, 1 5 i per cent. ; nor does this fully represent 
 the growth in our consumption ; for if wheat, which appears 
 
 ' Food tahlc's will be found in r;i|ic'rs IV. and V., "On Foieiirn Fot.d 
 Supplies."
 
 42 PUOGIiESS OF OUIl FOKEIGN TRADE, 
 
 to have been exceptionally large in IHb-i, be left out^ the 
 other articles of food will show an excess of fully 200 per 
 cent., or a treble quantity in twenty years. In some the. 
 additional receipts are really enormous : thus potatoes are 
 multiplied sixty- fold, eggs eleven, bacon and hams seven, 
 Imttcr and cheese four and five-fold. Tea has more than 
 doubled, and in most of these by far the greatest gain has 
 taken place in the last quinquennial period. Live animals 
 are four times greater than in 1854, but do not keep pace 
 with other articles, for there has been a slight falling off 
 since 1869. Spirits show an actual decline of 6 per cent., 
 being the only article in tliis class which is less than in 
 1854 ; but wine has increased 90 and tobacco 187 per cent. 
 
 Next in order are placed the raw materials, which form 
 the staple of our textile fabrics, aud, by way of contrast, the 
 manufactures from these materials, which are imported in 
 their finished state ; the former have increased 1 30, the 
 latter 250 per cent. The most remarkable growth in the 
 raw material is in jute, an article which may be said to have 
 sprung into existence as one of import at the time of the 
 Russian war, and during the cotton famine to have taken 
 such a hold on our markets as to have increased 540 per 
 cent. On the other hand, silk has during the same period 
 declined 14 per cent, in the raw, but increased 298 per 
 cent, in the manufactured article. Wool likewise has in- 
 creased, both raw and manufactured, and in each at almost 
 exactly the same rate — 248 and 243 per cent. There is this 
 difierence, however, that the amount of the raw products 
 is considerable, namely, in 1874, £90,000,000, but in the 
 manufactured only £15,000,000, the one being nearly a 
 fourth, the other only a twenty-fifth part of our total im- 
 ports. In neither does there seem to be any great growth 
 going on, since the imports of both in 1 869 were very nearly 
 the same as those of 1874. 
 
 The metals, which form a not inconsiderable item of im- 
 port, viz., £11,000,000 last year, have increased 211 per 
 cent. ; lead standing first and iron next. In wood there
 
 IMPORTS AND EXTORTS, 18')4-74. 43 
 
 appears to have been but little alteration in the first four 
 periods, whilst in 1874 it is nearly double that of 18(39, the 
 whole increase upon 1854 being 84 per cent. A few other 
 miscellaneous articles are included, in which hides show a 
 growth of 259, and oils a deci'ease of 4 per cent. 
 
 Although numerically these specified articles do not form 
 a large proportion of our total imports, in value they em- 
 brace nearly five-sixths ; and may therefore be taken as a 
 fair evidence of the general progress. It is probable that 
 in some points the comparisons may not be strictly accurate, 
 owing to minor alterations in the classification of dift'erent 
 descriptions of the same goods, by which the totals given 
 may not always include the same subdivisions. This remark 
 applies more to the arrangement under quantities, which will 
 be found in Tables VIII., IX., and X. 
 
 In Table VI. the same particulars are given for some of 
 the articles of which the exports form an important conside- 
 ration. By deducting the values here given from those of 
 the preceding table we may ari-ive at the amount retained 
 in the country, and shall find that in some articles this is 
 but a small proportion of the quantity brought here for a 
 market in 1874. As examples of this, coffee was imported 
 to the value of rather more than £7,000,000, of which 
 £5,000,000 were again taken away ; rice brought in is 
 valued at £3,600,000, and taken away to the extent of 
 £2,500,000; tea came in £11,500,000 and went out 
 £2,500,000, a much smaller proportion. On the other hand, 
 of nearly £31,000,000 worth of wheat we parted with 
 barely £6oo,000 ; of sugar, to £20,000,000, we parted with 
 but £700,000; and of cotton, out of £5 1, 000,000 worth, 
 less than £7,000,000 left us. 
 
 Table VII. is the counterpart of Table V., but dealing with 
 the exports of British produce and manufiicture. The 
 articles enumerated are fewer than those of the imports wore, 
 although they represent about the same proportion, viz., for 
 1874 five-sixths, or £203,000,000, out of £240,000,000, 
 quite suflScient to indicate the general course wliich the
 
 44 PROGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, 
 
 trade has taken. Of these cotton manufactures and yarn 
 together show for £74,000,000, or about three-eighths of 
 the whole. The increase on these has been to the extent of 
 134 per cent. Iron and steel come next with £3 i,000,00O, 
 an increase of 146 per cent., and then woollen manufactures 
 and yarn £28,000,000; these three branches of manufac- 
 ture alone furnishing more than half of all our exports, and 
 manifesting an increase of 142 per cent. Coals afford 
 £12,000,000, linen manufactures £ii, 000,000, and silk 
 £3,000,000 towards the total exports of 1874 — an increase 
 on 1854 of 460, I 13, and 85 per cent, respectively. A re- 
 markable instance of the varied character of our trade is 
 shown in what might have been thought a trivial article of 
 manufacture, namely, empty bags and sacks for packing 
 goods, of which we exported to the value of a quarter of a 
 million pounds in 1854, and one million and three-quarters 
 in 1874. 
 
 In all the foregoing tables we have been treating of values 
 alone, and not at all of quantities. This, as before explained, 
 is necessary for the general purposes of comparing one 
 year's transactions, one country's trade, or the dealings in 
 one article as compared with others ; but for ascertaining 
 with anything like precision the advance or otherwise of the 
 several articles through a series of years, it is indispensable 
 that we should consider quantities as well. Indeed, this is 
 the more important of the two, for fluctuations of price 
 whilst very important in regard to questions of profit and 
 loss, whether to the manufacturer, the trader, or the nation, 
 will be misleading in attempts to form estimates of the in- 
 creased production, sale, or consumption of the various 
 articles, whether foreign or British, in which we trade. 
 Three tables have, therefore, been prepared, in which the 
 quantities of the same articles for the same periods, with the 
 like increase of one year over another are displayed, so far 
 as is possible. In many cases it would be impracticable 
 to do so, because the values alone are capable of being re- 
 gistered. This happens also with some articles of which
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1854-74. 
 
 45 
 
 the values are giverij as woollen nianutactures, which head- 
 ing includes a number of subdivisions, all capable of being 
 grouped together for a joint value, but not so for a common 
 quantity, because the separate quantities, such as weights 
 and measurements, pieces, or pounds and yards are not 
 capable of being added together. Neither must it be taken 
 that in all cases the values shown for any article are for 
 identically the same parcels of goods as are shown uuder 
 quantities, as for instance, wood, where the value includes 
 staves, firewood, and furniture woods, the quantities only 
 those of hewn and sawn ; but with such an article as tea, 
 where the value and the quantity arc for the same amount 
 of goods, the division of one by the other would give the 
 actual average price per pound in each year. 
 
 Table YIII. is for the principal articles of import, and 
 they, though much fewer in number, are ranged in the same 
 order as in Table V. 
 
 Table IX. contains the same details for portions of the 
 foreign and colonial produce re-exported, and Table X. for 
 the exports of British goods. In many of these latter the 
 disparity of increase is so great that it may be well to range 
 them side by side, thus : — 
 
 Alkali 
 
 Hiii^s empty... 
 Boer and Ale.. 
 
 Coals 
 
 Cotton yarn.. . 
 Siitfar, refined 
 Woollen yarn. 
 
 
 Increase in. 
 
 Value. 
 
 Quantity. 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 462 
 
 
 35G 
 
 562 
 
 
 1-043 
 
 86 
 
 
 40 
 
 462 
 
 
 223 
 
 117 
 
 
 49 
 
 463 
 
 
 644 
 
 257 
 
 
 123 
 
 Such are a few of the more noticeable points brought out 
 by an inspection of the several tables, and having, it is 
 hoped, thus far kept >vithin. the strict bounds of a statistical
 
 4() 
 
 rUOGUESS UF OUK FOKKKiN 'J'KADE, 
 
 paper, I would trespass somewhat upon the time and indul- 
 j^'-ence of my hearers or readers — trenching in some mcasuro 
 upon the province of the political economist — to pass in re- 
 view some of the conclusions at which their consideration 
 may enable us to arrive. 
 
 Perhaps the most important feature in the whole is to be 
 found in the enormous increase in the quantities and values 
 of the food, other than that produced in our own country, 
 which we are able to purchase and consume — an increase 
 totally out of keeping with that which has taken place in the 
 population. The estimated number of inhabitants to be fed 
 in 1854 was 27,800,000; in 1874, 32,400,000— a diffe- 
 rence of 4,600,000, or 1 6 per cent. ; whereas the supplies 
 of food from abroad, after making due allowance for those 
 re-exported, cannot be taken at less than 1 50 per cent, 
 more than they were twenty years ago. The reason for this 
 disproportion is two-fold : first, that the production of food 
 at home does not keep pace with the growth of our popula- 
 tion ; and next, that with increasing means of purchasing 
 food, the quantity consumed by the mass of the people is 
 greater, if not in bulk, yet in value. From the official tables 
 — -first, I believe, compiled in 1867 — we find that the acre- 
 age of land under cultivation for corn and green crops in 
 that year was 16,384,000, and in 1873 almost exactly the 
 same, viz., 16,394,000 acres. At the same periods we had 
 of live stock — 
 
 Cattle 
 
 Sheej) 
 
 Pigs 
 
 The population having 
 been 
 
 In 1867. 
 
 8,731,000 
 
 33.818,000 
 
 4,221,100 
 
 3o.335'00o 
 
 In 1873. 
 
 10.154.000 
 
 33,982,000 
 
 3,564,000 
 
 32,125,000 
 
 Except, therefore, to the extent to which improved 
 methods of cultivation had increased the productiveness of
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1854-74. 47 
 
 the soil, it does not appear that in these six years there had 
 been any substantial addition to the quantity of food grown 
 at home. If this be so, the supplies needed for the addi- 
 tional mouths must have been chiefly drawn from abroad. 
 This might probably account for a large portion of the in- 
 creased value within that period, but not for the 30 to 35 
 millions, which have since 18G9 been added to our annual 
 payments for food; and hence it is evident, as indeed other 
 circumstances prove, that there must be greater purchasing 
 power in some or every portion of the community. That 
 both the causes alluded to are in operation is also manifest 
 from the unequal rate at which, in proportion to the popula- 
 tion, the increase of consumption goes on in articles of which 
 part is produced at home and part obtained from abroad, 
 and in those derived from the latter source. Wheat, bacon, 
 butter, cheese, eggs, have all risen with far greater rapidity 
 than sugar, tea, tobacco, and wine. What we have to pro- 
 vide by foreign importations of the first class, is the excess 
 over previous consumption of both home and foreign produce. 
 Of the latter, over foreign alone, and the percentage of in- 
 crease should for the former class be calculated not upon the 
 importations of 1854, but upon these added to the quantities 
 raised at home. 
 
 The contrast between the variations of price in different 
 classes of food is very marked. Take potatoes for one : the 
 increase in value is sixty-fold, in quantity but thirty-three- 
 fold, showing that the price we now pay for the same weight 
 is nearly double what it was twenty years back — in 1854 
 barely 3.S. per cwt., in 1874 more than 5s. per cwt. Wheat, 
 however, which has increased 158 per cent, in quantity, is 
 only 97 per cent, greater in value. So "with rice : 42 I in 
 weight only makes 268 in value. On the other hand, butter, 
 cheese, bacon, eggs, lard, are all dearer than they were in 
 1854 ; in eggs, especially, we see that whilst the number is 
 eight times, the value is eleven times as great; all tending 
 to show that though grain — which is the produce of coun- 
 tries in all parts of the world — is cheaper, meat, dairy pro-
 
 48 TROGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, 
 
 ducc, and thoso articles for wliich wo are limited to places 
 uoar at hand, have risen so much in cost, that practically the 
 necessaries of life are dearer than they were in the year with 
 which our observations commence. 
 
 A very satisfactory indication is furnished by the grow- 
 ing addition to our employment of the raw materials which 
 form the staple of our textile manufactures, and in the 
 metals which are so largely worked up and sent away as 
 British manufactures, as well as in wood, hides, seeds, &c. 
 Turning to the Exports of British manufactures, we find the 
 same results, the increase being very general ; cotton, linen, 
 and woollen manufactures having all more than doubled 
 both in value and quantity, keeping pace with the larger 
 importations of the raw materials from which they are pro- 
 duced. Here again the increase is more than commensurate 
 with that of the population, showing that if the average 
 consuming power is raised, so also is that of producing and 
 manufacturing. Must not this, be due to the extended em- 
 ployment and the superior character of our machinery, 
 through which a far larger amount of material is worked up 
 by each hand ? otherwise such an extension of our manu- 
 factures could not possibly have taken place. 
 
 There are several points of great interest connected with 
 the different countries with which we have the largest 
 trading relations and the progressive growth of these. We 
 must leave Russia out of the question in comparing the two 
 years we have chosen, because of the Crimean War in 1854 ; 
 but the fact of her now sending us nearly twice as much as 
 she takes from us, shows the extent to which she has served 
 as a granary for the United Kingdom. The same cause 
 produces the same result with regard to Fi-ance, and in 
 some degree the United States. On the other hand, Ger- 
 many and Holland are both better customers to us than we 
 are to them. The disproportion between the imports from, 
 and the exports to several countries are so remarkable, that 
 they deserve to be placed in contrast. First, those in which 
 our imports are now in excess.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1854-74. 
 [In million £'8 to two decimals.] 
 
 49 
 
 1874. 
 
 Imj)orts. Exports. 
 
 ! £ ' £ 
 
 Russia 21*40 1130 
 
 Sweden and Norway io'97 "'30 
 
 Belgium I4"93 12-90 
 
 France 4669 2940 
 
 Spain I2"85 7-70 
 
 United States 74-10 ' 32-30 
 
 1879. 
 
 Imports. Exports. 
 
 £ 
 15-88 
 
 8-39 
 1073 
 38-46 
 
 8-40 
 91-82 
 
 £ 
 10-61 
 
 3-94 
 11-89 
 26-56 
 
 3-76 
 25'52 
 
 Then those in which the exports are greater : — 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 1874. 
 
 1879. 
 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Imports. Exports. 
 
 (Tcrmanv 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ i £ 
 21-60 29-62 
 21-96 i 15*45 
 
 Holland 
 
 19 97 1 ^-r «vr 
 
 T r -8 T oo-Rrt 
 
 
 
 "" 
 
 On the whole it will be seen that our imports are now 
 £370,000,000 against exports of £297,000,000. In olden 
 times this would have been thought a serious evil. It was 
 at one time considered that the country which received 
 goods to a greater value than -it returned must inevitably 
 become impoverished. A diflferent theory then arose. It 
 was thought that no country (not being one in which the 
 precious metals existed,) could go on paying in goods more 
 than it got back, and therefore it must bo taken that in 
 some way or other the exports, though smaller in amount, 
 did in fact meet the claims upon us for the larger imports. 
 That consequently the disparity between the two was a 
 source of congratulation, since the excess of value in the one 
 over the other was really so much wealth accruing to us 
 as the balance of our trading operations. To a certain 
 — perhaps a considerable — extent this was true. The ox- 
 
 E
 
 50 PROGKESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, 
 
 port values being fixed at tlie time of shipment, did not 
 represent the charges of transit or the profits to those who 
 shipped them; whilst the import values being those at 
 the time of arrival, did include the expense of bringing them 
 and the profit on their sale by the first importers, most or all 
 of which accrued to this country as being the greatest 
 carrier both out and home, as well as the depot in which 
 they were sold. Such an explanation, however, cannot serve 
 to account for so large a difference as now exists. This to 
 the minds of many can only be accounted for in one of two 
 ways : either that there is some error in the method by 
 which the values are ascertained, or that we are really 
 doing a business which is alarming in its tendency towards 
 ultimate bankruptcy. But surmises and fears like these 
 may well be dismissed, and the belief that the difference 
 is really an accession to the accumulated wealth of the 
 country fully entertained.^ 
 
 It is obvious that for years past there has been an annual 
 increase, not only in the capital devoted to reproductive 
 expenditure, which, when it is judiciously devoted to this 
 purpose, goes on increasing in the way of compound in- 
 terest ; but also in that which seeks investment abroad. 
 That a large amount of capital thus supports foreign loans, 
 makes railways, and likewise maintains gas, water, harbour, 
 and other companies is well understood ; but it is almost 
 impossible to form an estimate of the annual return it makes 
 in the shape of interest or dividends. Beyond this, how- 
 ever, there is reason to believe that considerable sums are 
 invested in private agricultural and manufacturing under- 
 takings, as well as employed in trading pursuits. What 
 more likely than that the manufacturer at home, who finds 
 the demands of labour interfere with his ability to gain an 
 adequate return for his capital here, should carry some of it 
 to like uses abroad ? Or that the merchant who desires to 
 
 ^ It will be seen in the subsequent paper, " On tbe Preponderance 
 of Imports," that this view is much modified bj the progress of trade 
 since the year when this was written.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1854-74. 51 
 
 draw consignments of foreign or colonial produce to his 
 establishments at home, should advance the money which 
 pays for the cultivation of the soil and the gathering in of 
 the produce ; should build or charter the ships, not only 
 those which are employed in the direct trade, but in the 
 coast or international carrying in distant countries ? It is 
 well known that on this system the cultivation of our West 
 Indian colonies was carried on so largely when slavery 
 existed there ; that in this way the Northern States of tlie 
 Union in America reaped the profits of slavery in the 
 Southern; and there is no doubt that scarcely a country 
 exists, or cultivation or manufactures carried on in any 
 part of the world, in which British capital or British skill, 
 paid for in money value beyond the cost of its mainte- 
 nance, has not its share. Now, all this is in reality carried on 
 more by credit than the actual transmission of money, but it 
 nevertheless brings in large profits which in one shape or 
 another must be remitted to this country. And why not 
 in goods for which no equivalent exportation is made ? This 
 will go on in an accelerated ratio, so that it is not abso- 
 lutely impossible to conceive that the time may come when 
 the imports we receive will not do more than represent the 
 returns made for the use of British capital and credit. The 
 recipients of these returns have but to consume the produce 
 of our home growth and labour, in reality paying for them 
 with the goods drawn from abroad; and thus manufactures 
 might flourish and prosperity exist without a single article 
 of export ever being made. The true interest of the capitalist 
 at home, who finds that either there is a supcrabundauro of 
 that which he has to employ, or that the conditions of the 
 labour market here prevent his obtaining an adequate re- 
 turn, seems to be, to seek to stimulate production elsewhere, 
 or to encourage trade in distant places ; himself directing 
 from hence their proper developments, and enjoying hero 
 the fruits of his means and his talents. 
 
 Still the question arises on the face of these figures, 
 whether in truth the trade of the kingdom has not received
 
 52 PROGRESS OF OUR FOKEIGN TRADE, 
 
 a decided check. It will Le seen that 1871-72-73 were the 
 years in which it seemed to have reached its highest point, 
 and that 1874 contrasts unfavourably in every particular. 
 The percentages of increase which in the former years had 
 reached, for retained imports 136, for exports of foreign 
 goods 225, and of British 164 per cent., have in the last 
 receded to 1 56,209, and 1 46 respectively. The four months ^ 
 of the present year manifest a considerable decline upon the 
 corresponding period of last year, and would thus evi- 
 dence that the diminishing process is still going on. Time 
 alone will show whether this is one of those cycles of 
 comparative stagnation from which we have often before 
 recovered, or whether the conditions which regulate the re- 
 lations of capital and labour to each other have not really so 
 changed that we are transferring our superiority to other 
 lands. Enough, however, has been said to show the enor- 
 mous strides which British commerce and manufacture has 
 made within the last twenty years. We may yet indulge 
 the hope that our prosperity, not having reached its climax, 
 will shortly manifest as great a revival as we have often 
 witnessed before; and will in future years attain still greater 
 magnitude, if not with quite as rapid a growth as hitherto 
 has rewarded our national enterprise, wealth, and skill. 
 
 ^ Imports in 1874, £123,915,925; in 1875, £119,549,154. Ex- 
 ports (British) in 1874, £77,234,354 ; in 1875, £73,282,069. Full 
 tables of imports and expoi'ts for subsequent years are given at pp. 61, 
 66, et seq.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 18o4-74. 
 
 r.3 
 
 APPENDIX. 
 
 Table I. — Total Value of Goo/ls Imported into thu United Kingdom, 
 and of those Re-Exported therefrom in each Year from 1854 to 1874, 
 with the Increase or Decrease per Cent, in each on the previous Year, 
 and also on 1854 [1875 to 1879 added atfoot.l 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Imported, 
 
 Re-Exported. 
 
 
 Retained for Home 
 Consumption. 
 
 Year. 
 
 
 Increase 
 
 ";; 
 
 
 Increase 
 
 or 
 
 
 Increase 
 
 or 
 
 
 
 Decrease. 
 
 
 Dee 
 
 rease. 
 On 18.51. 
 
 
 Decrease. 
 
 
 Pr. Year. On 1854. 
 
 Tr.Year 
 
 Pr.Year. On 1854. 
 
 
 
 
 £ 
 
 Per cnt. ■ Per cnt. 
 
 £ 
 
 Per cnt. 
 
 Per cnt. 
 
 £ 
 
 Per cnt. Per cnt 
 
 1854 .. 
 
 i52'39 
 
 - 
 
 — 
 
 18-63 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 133-75 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '55 .. 
 
 i43'54 
 
 - 5-7 — 
 
 5 '7 
 
 21 -oo 
 
 4- 12-7 
 
 4- 
 
 12-7 
 
 122-54 
 
 — 8-4 — 
 
 8-4 
 
 '56 .. 
 
 <72'54 
 
 + 20-2 + 
 
 13-2 
 
 23 '39 
 
 4- 11-4 
 
 I4- 
 
 255 
 
 I49'i5 
 
 4-21-7 4- 
 
 "-5 
 
 '67 .. 
 
 187-84 
 
 + 8-4 + 
 
 233 
 
 24-11 
 
 4- 3 
 
 4- 
 
 29-4 
 
 163 73 
 
 4- 9-8 4- 
 
 224 
 
 '58 .. 
 
 164-58 
 
 — 12-4 + 
 
 7 '9 
 
 2317 
 
 — 3-9 
 
 4- 
 
 24-4 
 
 141-41 
 
 — 13-6 I4- 
 
 5-7 
 
 •59 .. 
 
 179-18 
 
 + 8-8 ^4- 
 
 .7-6 
 
 25-28 
 
 4- 9-1 
 
 4- 
 
 35-7 
 
 153-90 
 
 4- 8-8 4- 
 
 1 
 
 15-1 
 
 1860 .. 
 
 210-53 
 
 + 17-5 + 
 
 381 
 
 28-63 
 
 4- 13 2 
 
 1 
 4- 
 
 53-7 
 
 181-90 
 
 4- 18-1 
 
 4- 
 
 36-0 
 
 '61 .. 
 
 21749 
 
 + 3-3 1 + 
 
 42-7 
 
 34'S3 
 
 4- 20-6 
 
 4- 
 
 85-4 
 
 182-96 
 
 4- 0-6 
 
 4- 
 
 36S 
 
 '62 .. 
 
 225-72 
 
 + 3-9 + 
 
 48-1 
 
 42-18 
 
 4- 22- 1 
 
 4- 
 
 126-5 
 
 183 54 
 
 4- 03 
 
 4- 
 
 37"2 
 
 •63 .. 
 
 243-92 
 
 + 10-0 + 
 
 63-3 
 
 S0'30 
 
 4- 19-2 
 
 4- 
 
 170-0 
 
 198-62 
 
 4- 8-2 
 
 4- 
 
 48-5 
 
 '64 .. 
 
 274'95 
 
 4- 10-6 + 
 
 80-4 
 
 52-14 
 
 4- ;v7 
 
 4- 
 
 1800 
 
 222-81 
 
 4- 12-2 
 
 + 
 
 66-6 
 
 1865 .. 
 
 271-07 
 
 - 1-4 1 + 
 
 77'9 
 
 S3'oo 
 
 4- 16 
 
 4- 
 
 184-7 
 
 2i3o8 
 
 - 21 
 
 4- 
 
 63-0 
 
 '66 .. 
 
 295-29 
 
 + 9-0 + 
 
 93-8 
 
 49'99 
 
 4- ^.-7 
 
 4- 
 
 1680 
 
 245 30 
 
 4- 12.5 
 
 4- 
 
 834 
 
 '67 .. 
 
 275-18 
 
 — 6-8 4- 
 
 806 
 
 44-84 
 
 — 10-3 
 
 4- 
 
 140-9 
 
 230 34 
 
 — 61 
 
 4- 
 
 72-2 
 
 '68 .. 
 
 294-69 
 
 + 7-1 4- 
 
 93'4 
 
 4»-io 
 
 4- 7-3 
 
 1 + 
 
 1584 
 
 246-59 
 
 4- 75 
 
 4- 
 
 84-3 
 
 •69 .. 
 
 295-46 
 
 + 0-3 4- 
 
 93'9 
 
 4706 
 
 — 2-2 
 
 4- 
 
 152-8 
 
 248-40 
 
 4- 0-8 
 
 4- 
 
 85-7 
 
 1870 .. 
 
 303-26 
 
 4- 2-6 + 
 
 99-0 
 
 44'49 
 
 — 5-5 
 
 U 
 
 i39'o 
 
 258-76 
 
 4- 4-2 
 
 4- 
 
 93-4 
 
 •71 .. 
 
 331 02 + 9-2 + 
 
 117-2 
 
 6o'5i 
 
 4- 35 9 
 
 4- 
 
 225-1 
 
 27051 
 
 4- 4-5 4- 
 
 I02'2 
 
 '72 .. 
 
 354-69 , + 7-2 + 
 
 i32"7 
 
 53-33 
 
 — 3-6 
 
 4- 
 
 213-4 
 
 296-36 
 
 4- 9-5 4- 
 
 121 '6 
 
 '73 .. 
 
 371-2^ + 4-7 1 + 
 
 143-6 
 
 .S5-84 
 
 — 4-3 
 
 4- 
 
 200-0 
 
 3'5-45 
 
 4- 6-5 4- 
 
 1358 
 
 '74 .. 
 
 370-08 - 0-3 
 
 4- 
 
 142-9 
 
 58-09 
 
 4- 30 
 
 4- 
 
 2(1 '6 
 
 311-99 
 
 — 0-9 4- 
 
 132-5 
 
 Total \ 
 
 I'l I 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 5.339'7' 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 863-61 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 4,476-10 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 years ) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 ' 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Aver- 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 age 
 
 25427 
 
 
 
 4111 
 
 
 
 
 21314 
 
 
 
 1H75 .. 
 
 373-94 + I'O + 
 
 M5'4 
 
 58-15 
 
 4- 0-1 
 
 4- 
 
 2' 1-9 
 
 315-79 
 
 + wV 
 
 136- 1 
 
 •7« .. 
 
 375"'S 
 
 4- 0-3 4- 
 
 146 2 
 
 56 14 
 
 — 3 4 
 
 4- 
 
 201 '2 
 
 319-01 
 
 4- 1-3 4- 
 
 >39"3 
 
 •77 .. 
 
 394'42 
 
 4- 5-1 4- 
 
 158-1 
 
 53-45 
 
 — 4-8 
 
 4- 
 
 186-7 
 
 340-97 
 
 4- 6-9 4- 
 
 '54 "9 
 
 '78 .. 
 
 368-77 
 
 — 6-5 4- 
 
 142*0 
 
 52-63 
 
 — 1-6 
 
 4- 
 
 182-3 
 
 31614 
 
 — 7-314- 
 
 136-4 
 
 ■79 .. 
 
 362-99 
 
 — 1-6 4- 
 
 138-2 
 
 57-25 
 
 4- 8-8 
 
 4- 
 
 207-1 
 
 305-74 
 
 — 3-3 4- 
 
 138-6
 
 54 
 
 PROGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE. 
 
 Table IT. — Value of Goods Exported from the United Kingdom, dis- 
 tinguishing those of Foreign and Colonial Produce, and those of 
 British Manufacture, in each Year from 1854 to 1874, with the 
 Increase or Decrease per Cent, in each Year, on that of its prede- 
 cessor, and also on 1854. [1875 to 1879 added.'] 
 
 [In million &'a to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Exported. 
 
 Foreign and Colonial. 
 
 British. 
 
 Year. 
 
 
 Increase or 
 Decrease. 
 
 
 Increase or 
 Decrease. 
 
 
 Increase or 
 Decrease. 
 
 
 
 Pr.Year. On 1854. 
 
 Pr.Year. 
 
 On 18.54. 
 
 Pr.Year. On 18.54. 
 
 
 £ 1 Per cnt. 
 
 Per cnt. 
 
 £ 
 
 Per cnt. 
 
 Per cnt. 
 
 & 
 
 Per cnt. Per cnt. 
 
 1854 .. 
 
 115-82 1 — 
 
 — 
 
 1864 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 9718 
 
 — 1 — 
 
 '55 .. 
 
 116-69 1 + 0-7 
 
 + 0-7 
 
 21 'oo 
 
 + 12-7 
 
 + 12-7 
 
 95-69 
 
 - 1-5 1- 1-5 
 
 '56 .. 
 
 139-22 1 + 19-0 1+ 20-2 
 
 23 39 
 
 + 11-4 
 
 + 25-5 
 
 "5 83 
 
 + 21-0 ,+ 19-2 
 
 '57 .. 
 
 146-17 + 6-0 
 
 + 26-2 
 
 24-11 
 
 + 3-0 
 
 + 29-4 
 
 122-06 
 
 + 5-4 
 
 + 25-6 
 
 'r.8 .. 
 
 i39'78 
 
 — 4-4 
 
 + 20 2 
 
 23-17 
 
 — 3-9 
 
 + 24-4 
 
 11661 
 
 — 4-5 
 
 + 20 "o 
 
 '59 .. 
 
 iS5'69 
 
 + 11-4 
 
 + 34'4 
 
 25-28 
 
 + 9-1 
 
 + 35-7 
 
 130-41 
 
 + 11-8 
 
 + 34-2 
 
 1860 .. 
 
 164-52 
 
 + 5-7 
 
 + 42"! 
 
 28-63 
 
 + 13-2 
 
 + 53"7 
 
 i35'89 
 
 + 4-2 
 
 + 40-0 
 
 '61 .. 
 
 159 '63 
 
 — 3-0 
 
 + 377 
 
 3453 
 
 + 20-6 
 
 + 85-4 
 
 125-10 
 
 — 7-9 ;+ 28-7 
 
 '62 .. 
 
 166-17 
 
 + 4-1 
 
 + 43"5 
 
 4218 
 
 + 22-1 
 
 +•126-5 
 
 123-99 
 
 — 0-9 + 27-6 
 
 '63 .. 
 
 196-90 
 
 + 18-5 
 
 + 70 '0 
 
 50'30 
 
 + 19-2 
 
 + 170-0 
 
 146-60 
 
 + 18-2 + 50-8 
 
 '64 .. 
 
 212-59 
 
 + 7-9 
 
 + 83-4 
 
 52"i4 
 
 + 3-7 
 
 + 180-0 
 
 16045 
 
 + 9-4 
 
 + 65-1 
 
 1865 .. 
 
 218-83 
 
 + 2-9 
 
 + 88-9 
 
 S3'oo 
 
 + 1-6 
 
 + 184-7 
 
 165-83 
 
 + 3-4 
 
 + 70-6 
 
 '66 .. 
 
 238-91 1 + 9-1 
 
 + 106-3 
 
 49 "99 
 
 — 5-7 
 
 + 168-0 
 
 188-92 
 
 + 13-9 1+ 94-3 
 
 •67 .. 
 
 225-80 ! — 5-5 
 
 + 94'9 
 
 44-84 
 
 — 10-3 
 
 + 140-9 
 
 18096 
 
 — 4-2 !+ 86-2 
 
 '68 .. 
 
 227-78 ! + 0-9 
 
 + 96-7 
 
 48-10 
 
 + 7-3 
 
 + 158-4 
 
 179-68 
 
 — 0-7 ,+ 84-9 
 
 '69 .. 
 
 23702 +40 
 
 + io4'7 
 
 4706 
 
 — 2-2 
 
 + 152-8 
 
 189-96 
 
 + 5-7 
 
 + 95 4 
 
 1870 .. 
 
 244-08 + 3-0 
 
 + iio"8 
 
 44"49 
 
 — 5-6 
 
 + 139'° 
 
 i99'S9 
 
 + 5-1 
 
 + 105 '3 
 
 71 .. 
 
 283-58 + 16-2 
 
 + I44"9 
 
 60-51 
 
 + 35-9 
 
 + 225-1 
 
 223-07 
 
 + 11-8 + 129-5 
 
 '72 .. 
 
 314-59 i + 10-9 
 
 + i7i'6 
 
 58-33 
 
 — 3-6 
 
 + 213-4 
 
 256-26 
 
 + 14-9 1+ 1636 
 
 '73 .. 
 
 3II-OI i - 1-1 
 
 + 168-6 
 
 5 5 '84 
 
 — 4-3 
 
 + 200 
 
 255-17 
 
 — 0-4 + 162-5 
 
 '74 .. 
 
 297-65 1 — 4'5 
 
 + 156-4 
 
 5809 
 
 + 30 
 
 + 211-6 
 
 239-56 
 
 — 6-2 + 146-3 
 
 Total ) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 21 f 
 years J 
 
 4.3i2"43 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 863-62 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 3,448-81 
 
 — — 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Aver- 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 age 
 
 205-36 1 — 
 
 
 4X12I _ 
 
 ~ 
 
 164-23 
 
 
 1875 .. 
 
 281-61 
 
 — 0-5 
 
 + i43'2 
 
 58-15 
 
 + 0-1 
 
 + 211-9 
 
 223-47 
 
 — 6-7 
 
 + 129-9 
 
 '76 .. 
 
 256-78 
 
 — 8-8 
 
 + 127-1 
 
 Sfi'M 
 
 — 3-4 
 
 + 201 2 
 
 200-64 
 
 — 10-1 
 
 + 106-4 
 
 '77 .. 
 
 252-35 
 
 - 1-7 
 
 + Ii7'i 
 
 S3'4S 
 
 — 4-8 
 
 + 186-7 
 
 198-89 
 
 — 0-9 
 
 + IQ4-6 
 
 '78 .. 
 
 245"48 
 
 - 2-7 
 
 + 112-0 
 
 S2'63 
 
 — 1-6 
 
 + 182-3 
 
 192-85 
 
 — 30 
 
 + 98-5 
 
 '79 .. 
 
 248-78 
 
 + 1-3 
 
 + it4-8 
 
 57 '25 
 
 + 8-8 
 
 + 207-1 
 
 191-53 
 
 — 0-7 1 
 
 + 97-1
 
 III. 
 
 The Growing Preponderance op Imports over Exports 
 IN THE Foreign and Colonial Trade of the United 
 Kingdom/ 
 
 SINCE 1872 a marked alteration has taken place in the 
 relative values of the imports and exports of the 
 United Kingdom. Up to that date, and indeed until the 
 middle of 1873, the general progress of our trade showed 
 a steady increase in both branches ; and if here and there 
 special circumstances caused one year to fall short of its 
 predecessor, the deficit was speedily more than restored. 
 We had come to look upon continual growth as the normal 
 condition of our commerce, and though for about half a 
 century the balance had been in favour of imports, this 
 excess arose from their continuous increase, not as now, 
 partly from the decrease of the exports. For 1872 the 
 difference between the two — the balance of trade as it is 
 usually termed — was 40 millions, for the present year it is 
 nearly three times as much, i 1 8 millions. So decided and 
 rapid a change demands more than a superficial inquiry 
 into its causes and effects, and it is hoped that the figures 
 now to be produced will at least aid investigations as deep 
 and searching as the importance of the subject requires. 
 
 I. — Earlier Period of Trade, 1816-53. 
 
 Before considering the particulars furnished from oflicial 
 sources regarding the trade of more recent years, it would 
 have been interesting and useful to have taken a survey of 
 an earlier period, and in so doing to have glanced back- 
 
 ' Read before the Statistical Society, IDtli Decouibor, 187G. Vol. xl.
 
 56 PREPONDERANCE OF 
 
 ward so far as we have any data on which reliance can he 
 placed. 
 
 Having this object in view, it would have been possible 
 to commence with the year 1699, when both imports and 
 exports were each estimated as slightly under six millions. 
 Unfortunately, however, the accounts were kept in what 
 were termed " official values ; " that is, a tariff' of prices 
 supposed to represent the values of the various articles — 
 and really doing so at the time when each first became 
 known to, or distinguished in the trade accounts — was 
 employed for the purpose of representing quantities by 
 money. Such a system had its use as a means of com- 
 paring the current year with its immediate predecessor, 
 but as prices altered, and the relative quantities of goods 
 changed, it would so far depart from accuracy as to be of 
 little worth. Exporters were for other reasons called upon 
 to declare the values of their respective shipments, and the 
 collected amounts were recorded; but no such step was 
 taken for the imports until much later on. The figures, 
 therefore, in the following table must be taken with great 
 limitation. 
 
 The year 1816, with which the table commences, may be 
 deemed the opening one of a new era in our commercial 
 operations. The long period of continental and other 
 warfare, culminating in the events of 1815, must have so 
 disturbed our trading relations as to render any comparison 
 of prior with succeeding years very unsafe. From that 
 year to 1853 there appears to have been a steady progress 
 in both imports and exports, but not by any means in the 
 same I'atio. The figures are here reproduced as an inte- 
 resting if not an absolutely necessary introduction to the 
 more definite details of the subsequent period ; and the 
 " declared ^' as well as " official " values of the British exports 
 shown for the purpose of correcting many erroneous esti- 
 mates which have been formed of the worth of our export 
 trade during those years. 
 
 In the two columns on the opposite sides of the next page
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 
 
 57 
 
 Table I. — Value of Goods imported into, and Exported from, the l^tiited 
 Kingdom, from 1816 to 180.3, Computed at the Official Ita'fs ; 
 showing also the Declared Value of the British Exports. 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Foreign and Colonial Merchandise. | 
 
 Produce and Manufacture 
 
 Total 
 
 
 (Official Vuliic 
 
 '.) 
 
 of United Kingilom. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Years. 
 
 Total 
 
 Exported 
 from 
 
 Retained 
 
 for 
 Home Use. 
 
 Official 
 
 Declared 
 
 Official 
 
 
 Impoiti*. 
 
 United 
 Kingdom. 
 
 Value. 
 
 Value. 
 
 Values. 
 
 
 £ 
 
 ^• 
 
 X- 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £. 
 
 1816 ... 
 
 27-43 
 
 13-48 
 
 13-95 
 
 35-72 
 
 41-65 
 
 49-20 
 
 '17 ... 
 
 30'^3 
 
 1029 
 
 20-54 
 
 40 11 
 
 41-82 
 
 50-40 
 
 '18 ... 
 
 3689 
 
 1086 
 
 2603 
 
 42-70 
 
 46-47 
 
 53-56 
 
 '19 ... 
 
 3078 
 
 9-91 
 
 20-.V7 
 
 33-53 
 
 35-21 
 
 43-44 
 
 1820... 
 
 32-47 
 
 10-56 
 
 21-91 
 
 38-39 
 
 36-42 
 
 48-95 
 
 '21 ... 
 
 30-84 
 
 10-63 
 
 20-21 
 
 40-83 
 
 3666 
 
 5 1 -4a 
 
 '22 ... 
 
 30-53 
 
 9-23 
 
 2 1 -30 
 
 44-24 
 
 3697 
 
 53-47 
 
 '23 ... 
 
 35-80 
 
 8-60 
 
 27-20 
 
 43-83 
 
 35'3(> 
 
 52-43 
 
 '24 ... 
 
 37*47 
 
 10-21 
 
 27-26 
 
 48-73 
 
 3842 
 
 58-94 
 
 182.'>.. 
 
 44-21 
 
 9-17 
 
 35-04 
 
 47-15 
 
 38-87 
 
 56-32 
 
 '26 .. 
 
 37-81 
 
 io-o8 
 
 27-73 
 
 40-96 
 
 31-54 
 
 51-04 
 
 "27 ... 
 
 44-91 
 
 9-83 
 
 35-08 
 
 52-22 
 
 37-^S 
 
 6205 
 
 '28 ... 
 
 45-17 
 
 9-95 
 
 35-22 
 
 £2-78 
 
 36-81 
 
 62-73 
 
 '29 ... 
 
 43-99 
 
 10-62 
 
 33-37 
 
 56-22 
 
 35-S4 
 
 6684 
 
 1830... 
 
 4630 
 
 8-55 
 
 37-75 
 
 61-15 
 
 3S-27 
 
 69-70 
 
 '31 ... 
 
 49-73 
 
 IO-75 
 
 38-98 
 
 60-68 
 
 37-16 
 
 71-43 
 
 '32 ... 
 
 44-61 
 
 1105 
 
 33-56 
 
 65-02 
 
 3645 
 
 7607 
 
 '33 ... 
 
 45-94 
 
 9-83 
 
 36-11 
 
 69-99 
 
 39-67 
 
 79-82 
 
 '34 ... 
 
 49-37 
 
 11-56 
 
 37-81 
 
 73-84 
 
 41-65 
 
 85-40 
 
 1835 ... 
 
 4903 
 
 12-80 
 
 36-23 
 
 78-36 
 
 4T37 
 
 9116 
 
 '36 ... 
 
 57-30 
 
 12-39 
 
 44-91 
 
 85-22 
 
 53-29 
 
 9761 
 
 '37 ... 
 
 54-76 
 
 13-24 
 
 41-53 
 
 72-54 
 
 42-07 
 
 85-78 
 
 '38... 
 
 61-26 
 
 12-71 
 
 48-55 
 
 92--)5 
 
 5006 
 
 105-17 
 
 '39 ... 
 
 62-05 
 
 1 2 80 
 
 49-25 
 
 97-39 
 
 53-23 
 
 11019 
 
 1840 ... 
 
 67-49 
 
 13-77 
 
 53-72 
 
 102-71 
 
 51-41 
 
 116-48 
 
 '41 ... 
 
 64-44 
 
 14-72 
 
 49-72 
 
 102-18 
 
 51-64 
 
 116-90 
 
 '42 ... 
 
 6525 
 
 13-59 
 
 51-66 
 
 100-25 
 
 47-38 
 
 113-84 
 
 '43 ... 
 
 70-22 
 
 1396 
 
 56-26 
 
 117-87 
 
 32-28 
 
 131-S3 
 
 '44... 
 
 75-45 
 
 14-40 
 
 61 05 
 
 131-55 
 
 5S-5S 
 
 145-96 
 
 1845 ... 
 
 85-30 
 
 16-28 
 
 6902 
 
 134-60 
 
 6o'ii 
 
 150-88 
 
 '46 .. 
 
 7593 
 
 16-30 
 
 59-63 
 
 132-31 
 
 57-79 
 
 14862 
 
 '47 ... 
 
 90-92 
 
 20-04 
 
 70-f-8 
 
 12613 
 
 58-84 
 
 146-17 
 
 '48... 
 
 9355 
 
 18-38 
 
 75-17 
 
 132-61 
 
 52-85 
 
 150-99 
 
 '49 ... 
 
 10588 
 
 25-56 
 
 80-32 
 
 164-53 
 
 6360 
 
 19009 
 
 1850 ... 
 
 100-47 
 
 21-89 
 
 78-58 
 
 175-44 
 
 7' 37 
 
 197-33 
 
 '51 ... 
 
 110-48 
 
 23-73 
 
 86 75 
 
 190-66 
 
 7445 
 
 214-^,9 
 
 '52 ... 
 
 109-33 
 
 2333 
 
 86 00 
 
 19618 
 
 78-08 
 
 219-51 
 
 '53... 
 
 123-10 
 
 27-75 
 
 95-35 
 
 214-32 
 
 98-93 
 
 242-07 
 
 38 years 
 
 2-267-29 
 
 522-77 
 
 1-744-52 
 
 3-395-46 
 
 1-845-75 
 
 3918-23
 
 58 PREPONDERANCE OF 
 
 will be found the yearly total values of the imports and 
 exports as derived from official sources. The middle 
 column on the import side of the table sets forth the value 
 of imported articles exported to foreign countries, which, in 
 any comparison with British exports, should be deducted. 
 This is done in the next column, which shows the difference 
 between the two, or the value of the imports retained in 
 the country for home use. Adjoining this will be found 
 the value of goods of home produce and manufacture 
 exported, constituting what may be termed the credit side 
 of the account. The difference between the two, as also 
 that between the right and left-hand columns, will give the 
 nearest approach to the preponderance or otherwise of 
 imports or exports it is possible to abstract directly from 
 these records, for the years embraced in this table. 
 
 For the reasons above stated, prior to 1854, we have no 
 means of accurately ascertaining in what relation the values 
 of our imports stood to those of our exports, but by a 
 change of system in that year the real import values were 
 obtained ; and from this we learn that whilst the market 
 prices of the exports were continually falling, the not 
 unnatural result of improvement and competition in manu- 
 facture, those of the imports were constantly rising ; the 
 equally rational effect of demand overtaking supply, and 
 the growing wealth of those who were the purchasers. In 
 that year the actual value of 152 millions of imports stood 
 officially at 1 24, whilst the true value of 1 16 millions of 
 exports was represented officially as 243 : an official deficit 
 in the one case of 28, and an excess in the other of 127. 
 Reasoning from the official valuation, we should conclude 
 the balance in favour of exports to have been 120 millions, 
 whereas the true figures show it to have been 37 millions 
 in favour of imports. Such being the case with the figures 
 up to ] 853, any attempt to deal with them as showing the 
 progressive preponderance either way would be hopeless. 
 An attempt has been made to convert " official " into 
 " actual " for the imports, but it soon became evident that
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 59 
 
 the labour of such an effort would be greatly beyond the 
 worth of the results to be obtained, results too doubtful to 
 support any argument or to guide any judgment. It is 
 probable, however, that in assuming the official value of 
 14 millions for the imports retained in 1816 to have been 
 really equal to I 7, as against 4 1 of British exports, and 
 the 95 millions in 1853 as really i 30 against 99 of exports, 
 we shall not be far wide of the mark. If these be correct 
 estimates, the foreign goods consumed in this country had 
 between 1810 and 1853 multiplied sevenfold in value, and 
 the exports of British goods only doubled, thus altering 
 the excess from one side of the account to the other. It 
 is probable that the time when the imports overtook the 
 exports was about the year 1825, since when there has 
 been a growing preponderance in their favour. 
 
 II. — Period from, 1854 to the Present Time. 
 
 From 1 854 the import values, as published in the monthly 
 and annual accounts of trade and navigation, assumed a new 
 aspect. They still continued to be computed, but upon the 
 basis of the current market values of the articles, and as the 
 declared values of the exports were given by the merchants 
 upon the same foundation, the two sets of figures may be 
 fairly brought into comparison. As such they are given 
 in Table II., which is continued in the same form as Table I., 
 with two exceptions. The official value, although discarded 
 from the Trade accounts, continued until 18?0 to be pub- 
 lished in the Finance accounts annually presented to Par- 
 liament. For information, therefore, and as illustrating 
 the discrepancies between them and the real values, they 
 are inserted in the table as a second line for each year. 
 Another column, too, has been added, in which the exports 
 having been deducted from the imports, the difference is 
 shown as an excess of the latter, and the percentage of this 
 excess upon the export value has been brought out. An 
 average for the twenty-three years 1854-76 inclusive, is 
 likewise shown : —
 
 (;o 
 
 J'UEl'UNDEUAXCE OF 
 
 Table II. — In co/itinuafion of Table I., from 18.54 (o 1876, showing the 
 Compnfed Real Vdlnes of Imporla vp to 1 870, the Declared Values 
 of Imports from 1871, and of Exports for the whole Period; also 
 the Offu'ml Values up to 1869. [1877 to 1879 uddrd.'] 
 
 Note. — Figures printed thus (is2'3g) are computed to 1870, declared to 1876, 
 those in italics are official.
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 61 
 
 1877...! 394"42 53-45 ! 340-97 I 198-89 252-34 
 
 '78...! 36877 52-63 316-14 I 192-85 245-48 
 
 '79...! 36299 ; 57-25 i 305-74 1 191-53 , 248-78 
 
 142-08 
 123-29 
 114-21 
 
 71 
 64 
 60 
 
 III. — Alterations to he made in Belative Values. 
 
 Beginning then with 1854, we leave a period in which 
 arbitrary and antiquated prices were employed to convert 
 quantities into value, and come to one in which the values 
 being based upon existing prices and known market rates, 
 the figures given may be taken as a fair valuation of the 
 goods at the time when they arrive and leave the country. 
 They thus afford satisfactory information of the amount of 
 trade which is being transacted, and by comparison of suc- 
 cessive years of its advance or decay ; but they are still in- 
 sufficient for enabling us to determine the balance of trade, or 
 as it may be better stated, the actual amount of money or 
 money's worth which is necessary for the settlement of the 
 balances between the nation and its customers. And for 
 this reason amongst others : that it is essential for uniformity's 
 sake to lay down a rigid rule as to the time and ])lace at 
 which the valuation is taken, whilst under the actual condi- 
 tions of trade the selling and the purchasing prices admit of 
 continually changing adjustments. The goods which are 
 sent abroad increase or decrease in value before they are 
 used in payment for those we receive; these again are seldom 
 placed upon the market at home at the same price as that at 
 which they change hands abroad, and it is easy to perceive 
 that the pound of value assigned to the import is not neces- 
 sarily or often equivalent to the pound of export. For 
 statistical purposes the value required is, that which the 
 articles bear at the time when the vessels in which they are 
 conveyed arrive at, or depart from, the several ports in the 
 kingdom ; that is, the sum of money which should be given 
 in exchange for the bill of lading, which is the title for pos- 
 session of the property. This includes the cost of bringing 
 our imports hither, but excludes that of conveying the ex-
 
 C)2 rilErONDERANCE OF 
 
 ports to tlieir destination, and thus leaves a considerable 
 margin to be deducted from the one total or added to tho 
 other before the true difl'erence can be ascertained. Again, 
 in the official totals no account is taken of the coin and bullion 
 which passes to and fro, and as regards the exports there are 
 goods other than what is ordinarily termed merchandise, 
 which need to be brought into the account, with other cir- 
 cumstances, to all of which a consideration in detail must be 
 given. 
 
 To take the imports first. There is a large amount of 
 specie and precious metal continually passing backwards and 
 forwards between the various countries as a circulating 
 medium, or in adjustment of the exchanges at the different 
 monetary centres. The same coin or ingots may be, and 
 are, transferred from one place to another very many times 
 in the year, and though a separate account is kept of these 
 removals, and much care is bestowed to make this as cor- 
 rect as possible, the value is not included in the totals of 
 either the imports or the exports. To add the whole would 
 unduly swell both amounts, but the balance must clearly be 
 placed to whichever side it belongs. This will consist of the 
 floating stock which for the time being happens to be re- 
 maining in the country, together with such quantities as are 
 absorbed in the arts and manufactures, or employed in the 
 increase or renewal of the coinage. 
 
 It is a far more difficult task to ascertain what allowances 
 should be made for the charges upon bringing the articles of 
 import from the place of production or pm-chase, to that at 
 which the value is assigned, but the extreme importance of 
 obtaining a correct estimate has been made the occasion of 
 a series of extended and minute calculations, by which it is 
 hoped an approximation to the actual cost has at least been 
 obtained ; and as no mere statement of the results would 
 caiTy conviction to the minds of those who are conversant 
 with trade, it may be well to briefly describe the method 
 which has been pursued. With cotton — the greatest of all 
 our importations — as an example, quotations have been ob-
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 63 
 
 taincd of the actual amounts paid for freight from each of the 
 principal ports in America^ for the last twenty years ; regard 
 has been paid to the quantities shipped from each of these 
 ports, and the periods of the year, whether in the slack or 
 busy season, at which these have been made. An average 
 has thus been arrived at for each year, and applying this to 
 the average price per pound at which the cotton stands for 
 the same year, the charge per cent, on the value has been 
 ascertained. Similar processes have been gone through 
 with corn, tea, sugar, wine, timber, &c., &c., to such an ex- 
 tent as to justify the conclusion that the declared import 
 value is from this cause enhanced by Sl to i 21 per cent. 
 On a consideration of the whole it would seem that 1 1 per 
 cent, is a fair average, and at this ratio the freight has been 
 worked out for each year since 1854. 
 
 The validity of this estimate may be tested in another way. 
 We have now from 44- to 5 million tons of British shipping 
 employed in the foreign carrying trade ; assuming £6 per 
 ton per annum as a fair estimate of gross earnings, of which 
 one-fourth is chargeable to the export trade, we shall have 
 say 22 millions J but perhaps one- third of the imported 
 goods are brought in Foreign ships, and one-half of this sum 
 must be added for the freight carried by these, giving thus 
 a total of say 33 millions — not greatly below the 35 millions 
 which has been assumed as the deduction for the present 
 year. To corroborate these calculations, the ascertained 
 import freight lists of several vessels for a series of years, 
 actually give an average of Sgs. per ton, which very nearly 
 corresponds with four-fifths of the £6 above assumed. 
 
 On the export side, all the alteration will be in the shape 
 of additions. In the first place, wo build many vessels for 
 foreigners, which, sailing away with cargoes, are not them- 
 selves deemed to be exports, but are just as much so as other 
 goods taken from the country. Careful inquiries by an 
 eminent shipbuilding firm as to the average contract price 
 per ton in each year for sailing vessels and steamers, have 
 furnished a sum to be added on this account. Another item
 
 64 PREPONDERANCE OF 
 
 is that of victualling supplies and stores, which, though never, 
 included in the exports, should be, inasmuch as they are so 
 much goods sent away for profit in the shape of freight to bo 
 earned on both outward and homeward voyages. It has been 
 estimated, from a comparison of actual outlays obtained from 
 various firms, that these will amount to 20s. a ton per annum 
 for sailing vessels, and 30s. for steamers, and at these rates 
 the calculation has been made. A further addition must be 
 made for the quantity of coals shipped for the use of steamers. 
 No record of this was kept until within the last two years, 
 but dividing these quantities by the tonnage of the vessels 
 to which they were supplied, and assuming a similar rate of 
 consumption for previous years, it is not difficult to find a 
 value for each year according to the prices given for cargoes 
 exported at the same times. 
 
 It has been necessary to specify at some length the various 
 methods by which these estimates — for they are not positive 
 facts — have been obtained, in order that those conversant 
 with the various branches of business may form some ideas 
 as to their probable accuracy. Conjectural amounts may 
 not be very safe to rely upon, but these have all been very 
 carefully made upon data collected from numerous au- 
 thentic sources, and have been subjected to most exhaustive 
 computations, involving a mass of figures and a large expen- 
 diture of time, in order that the result might be deemed to 
 have real worth. The several details are displayed in the 
 following table : —
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 
 
 65 
 
 Table III. — Showing the Corrections of Excess of Imports {Table I J.) 
 by Addition of Balance of Bullion aiul Deduction for Freight ; and 
 by Additions to Exports for Ships Built for Foreigners, Victualling, 
 and Ships' Stores, and Coals for use of Steamers. [1877-9 added.^ 
 
 [In million £'.s to two ilecimul^.] 
 
 
 
 I nip 
 
 irts. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Assumed 
 Balance 
 
 to l)e 
 
 Years. 
 
 Apparent 
 
 JKxce.ss 
 
 of 
 
 AiUl 
 
 DcliRt 
 
 Add 
 
 Add 
 
 Add 
 
 
 Imiwrts. 
 
 — 
 
 
 .Ships for 
 
 Victualling 
 
 Coals 
 
 Provided 
 
 
 
 Bullion. 
 
 FroiRht. 
 
 and 
 
 for 
 
 for. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Foreigners. 
 
 Stores. 
 
 Steamers. 
 
 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 1854... 
 
 36-6 j 
 
 not 
 
 i-1 
 
 not 
 
 1 2-8 
 
 •2 
 
 
 
 
 iiscertained 
 
 recorded 
 
 ' 
 
 
 
 '55... 
 
 26-9 
 
 >) 
 
 ^JS 
 
 ■9 
 
 J' 
 
 •2 
 
 
 
 '56... 
 
 33-3 
 
 „ 
 
 16-4 
 
 I'2 
 
 3'3 
 
 •2 
 
 
 
 '57... 
 
 41-7 
 
 .. 
 
 iSo 
 
 1-2 
 
 J3 
 
 '3 
 
 — 
 
 1858... 
 
 24-8 
 
 99 
 
 15' 5 
 
 ro 
 
 3-4 
 
 •3 
 
 14-5 
 
 '59... 
 
 23-5 
 
 1-4 
 
 i6'<p 
 
 '9 
 
 J4 
 
 •3 
 
 3-4 
 
 1860... 
 
 460 
 
 — 26 
 
 20'0 
 
 '5 
 
 3'2 
 
 •3 
 
 19-4 
 
 '61... 
 
 57-9 
 
 — 2-1 
 
 20-I 
 
 3 
 
 3-3 
 
 •3 
 
 31-8 
 
 '62... 
 
 69-5 
 
 2-3 
 
 20-2 
 
 7 
 
 35 
 
 •3 
 
 37-1 
 
 '63... 
 
 520 
 
 3-5 
 
 21- S 
 
 ■6 
 
 J8 
 
 '4 
 
 28-9 
 
 '64... 
 
 62-4 
 
 4-6 
 
 2-f5 
 
 '9 
 
 4'2 
 
 V 
 
 37-0 
 
 1865... 
 
 52-2 
 
 6-4 
 
 24'0 
 
 /• r 
 
 4'4 
 
 '5 
 
 28-6 
 
 "66... 
 
 56-4 
 
 12-6 
 
 27-0 
 
 1'2 
 
 44 
 
 •6 
 
 35-8 
 
 '67... 
 
 49-4 
 
 9-5 
 
 2S3 
 
 I'l 
 
 4-6 
 
 •8 
 
 27-1 
 
 '68... 
 
 66-9 
 
 4-6 
 
 27-1 
 
 '•4 
 
 4-6 
 
 •8 
 
 37-6 
 
 .'69... 
 
 58-4 
 
 41 
 
 27'3 
 
 '9 
 
 4-6 
 
 ■8 
 
 28-9 
 
 1870... 
 
 59-2 
 
 IO-5 
 
 2S-5 
 
 1-7 
 
 4-6 
 
 '9 
 
 34-0 
 
 '71... 
 
 47-4 
 
 4'4 
 
 2g-8 
 
 i'4 
 
 4-7 
 
 ro 
 
 14-9 
 
 '72... 
 
 40 1 
 
 — 7 
 
 J2-6 
 
 33 
 
 5'o 
 
 2'I 
 
 — 3-6 
 
 "73... 
 
 60-3 
 
 47 
 
 S-f7 
 
 4-0 
 
 5-2 
 
 2-6 
 
 18-5 
 
 '74... 
 
 72-4 
 
 1-5 
 
 34'3 
 
 3-3 
 
 5'4 
 
 2-4 
 
 28-5 
 
 1875... 
 
 92-3 
 
 5-6 
 
 34'7 
 
 1-8 
 
 5-3 
 
 rg 
 
 54-2 
 
 '76... 
 
 118-4 
 
 7-6 
 
 3SO 
 
 •6 
 
 5-5 
 
 2-0 
 
 82-9 
 
 19 yrs. 
 
 1100-0 
 
 88 o 
 
 4970 
 
 2S0 
 
 Sj-o 
 
 ig'o 
 
 5590 
 
 A^Tge. 
 
 58-0 
 
 S-o 
 
 26'0 
 
 ''5 
 
 5'o 
 
 ro 
 
 300 
 
 1877... 
 
 142-1 
 
 -2-7 
 
 srs 
 
 •6 
 
 5'7 
 
 r8 
 
 93-8 
 
 '78... 
 
 123-3 
 
 51 
 
 34-S 
 
 1-5 
 
 59 
 
 rg 
 
 84-3 
 
 '79... 
 
 114-2 
 
 — 4'4 
 
 33-6 
 
 rS 
 
 &i 
 
 r8 
 
 66-5 
 
 On the assumption, then, that the foregoing table has 
 been correctly constructed from sufficiently accurate data, 
 the fi"-ures in its final column should show the balances for 
 each year since 1857, which England, in its trading relations
 
 06 PREPONDERANCE OF 
 
 with the whole world, has had to provide for or to adjust. 
 They are, in fact, the money values of the goods she has 
 from time to time bought, over and above those she has 
 sold ; and for them, in some shape or other, value has to be 
 given. Owing to various causes which affect the traffic of 
 particular seasons, the years do not present such regularity 
 as would justify a separate treatment. It will be best, 
 therefore, to consider generally the average for the whole 
 period, and then particularly the balances since 1872, when, 
 as will be seen, a marked change commenced. 
 
 IV. — Excess of Imports during the Past Twenty Years. 
 
 Taking the official figures as shown in Table II., we shall 
 find that during the twenty years ending in 1876 we had in 
 round numbers : — 
 
 Imported foreign and colonial merchandise to the £ 
 
 value of 5,600,000,000 
 
 Exported foreign and colonial merchandise to the 
 
 value of 900,000,000 
 
 Retained in the country 4,700,000,000 
 
 Exported of British produce and manufacture 3,500,000,000 
 
 Leaving an excess of 1,200,000,000 
 
 Equal to an annual average of 60,000,000 
 
 But taking into account the additions and deductions set 
 forth in Table III., this will be reduced to one-half, leaving 
 the true average or balance to be dealt with not far from 
 £30,000,000. 
 
 Two things are quite evident : first, that the country 
 cannot have suffered to this extent by any drain upon its 
 stock of precious metals 3 for we have taken into account 
 the ebb and flow of the coin and bullion, and with the ad- 
 ditions to our circulating medium and the gold and silver 
 absorbed in the arts and manufactures, there must be more
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 67 
 
 of these with us than there ever was before ; to say nothing 
 of the present accumulation in the Bank coffers. Secondly, 
 that we have not become debtors to other nations, for we 
 have proof in the large loans they have contracted here and 
 the heavy investments we have made abroad, that as capi- 
 talists we have increased rather than diminished our hold- 
 ings. Nor is there any difficulty in seeing in what manner 
 the settlement has been effected. 
 
 In the first place, the investments of which we speak 
 produce an annual income which has either to be remitted 
 here or placed to our credit with those from whom we pur- 
 chase. Mr. Seyd, in a paper read before the Society of 
 Arts in March last, estimates the indebtedness of other 
 countries to this at from i ,000 to i , i OO millions of money, 
 yielding an annual interest of from 40 to ^O millions. 
 Professor Levi, in a paper published in the Society's 
 '^Journal" for June, 1874, thus quotes from a Parliamen- 
 tary paper the sums assessed to the income-tax as derived 
 from foreign securities: Indian, £7,032,000; colonial, 
 £2,840,000; foreign, £9,341,000; together, £19,2 I 3,000. 
 Since that year, notwithstanding that several of our creditors 
 have proved to be defaulters, the amount must have become 
 much larger, and the exact sum not being important to the 
 present question, it may serve to take the mean of the two 
 estimates. This will bo about £30,000,000 at this time, 
 but cannot have averaged more than one-half or two-thirds 
 as much for the twenty years. 
 
 "VYe have next to take into account the drawings by the 
 Government here on its Indian revenues, amounting to some 
 I 5 millions per annum. This also has been growing, or has 
 been almost entirely created since 1854, and cannot there- 
 fore have gone very far in the past, although it is a most 
 important item at the present, and will probably be still 
 more so in the future. 
 
 Possibly these two sources of income have furnished 
 nearly if not quite enough to pay for the excess of imports, 
 and if so, the adjustment is complete. But further than this.
 
 ()8 I'REPONDERANCE OF 
 
 we have the profits of trading in the goods which go to form 
 the large amount of imports and exports, together making 
 a total of 1 0,000 millions for the twenty years, or an average 
 of 500 millions, which should have yielded a profit of some 
 20 to 30 millions per annum. 
 
 Another item in favour of tliis country will arise from the 
 earnings of her ships in the transport of goods to and 
 between foreign ports, the net proceeds of which having 
 to be remitted to the owners, vsdll form a set-off against the 
 goods purchased abroad for importation at home. Any 
 estimate of its amount must be very doubtful, and may 
 range from 5 to 10 millions annually, subject, however, to 
 a deduction of such portions of both it and the home freights 
 as are payable to colonial shipowners. The freight on im- 
 •ports, being settled at home, cannot in any way enter into 
 the account. 
 
 In addition to all these, there must be a large return for 
 trade carried on abroad by our countrymen, who remit the 
 profits here to be spent or invested in this country ; and 
 there are also the entirely unknown proceeds from capital 
 invested in private manufacturing and agricultural pursuits 
 by those who, remaining at home, expend the income 
 here. 
 
 From these facts we may safely draw the conclusion that 
 the surplus value of the imports must until recently have 
 been far from suflficient to meet all the claims this country 
 has upon others ; and that the difference, whatever it may 
 be, must have remained abroad, swelling the indebtedness 
 of other nations to us, increasing the English capital employed 
 in foreign undertakings. 
 
 In itself, therefore, there is no reason why either the 
 excess of past years, the greater surplus of the present, or 
 she still larger sums we may conceive of for the future, 
 thould be deemed prejudicial to our interests, or likely to 
 derange the finances of our country. As was remarked in 
 a former paper which slightly touched upon these points, 
 '' manufactures might flourish and prosperity exist without
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. Q9 
 
 a single article of export ever being made/' We do not 
 take it as indicative of poverty in London^ nay, rather as a 
 proof of its wealth, that the articles it receives so greatly 
 exceed those it parts -with. We might even point out whole 
 districts which, abounding in every token of wealth and 
 luxury, are nothing but recipients, and why ? Because 
 there are congregated in these quarters those who draw 
 thither the returns which labour, skill, and capital combine 
 to produce at the different seats of our national industry. 
 Let us look upon England as the metropolis of the world, 
 the residence of those whose capital flows to every land, 
 whose skill directs the employment of that capital in combi- 
 nation with the labour of emigrants from her own shores, 
 still more of the workers she finds ready to her hands almost 
 wherever she turns her thoughts; and she may go on receiv- 
 ing Avithout payment those imports which thus serve to 
 support her own population, and purchase all the products 
 of their industry. Let the increase of our capital abroad, 
 and the openings found for its profitable employment, only 
 keep pace with, or exceed, the increase of numbers, wants, 
 or desires at home, and there will ultimately be true reason 
 to measure the prosperity of the nation by the amounts it 
 can afford to receive without the necessity for sending their 
 value away. But if, on the other hand, investments abroad 
 lessen in productiveness, our manufactures cease to sell on 
 profitable terms, and our consumption at home shall require 
 increasing foreign supplies ; we shall by degrees be eating 
 up the wealth accumulated in the past, and the rapidity with 
 which our imports increase will then be the measure of our 
 national decay. 
 
 V. — Preponderance of Imports in Recent Years. 
 
 In 1872 the true excess would seem to have been on the 
 side of exports rather than imports, to the extent of nearly 
 £4,000,0005 but in the following year the imports again 
 predominated, and have continued to do so with increasing
 
 70 rREPONDERANCE OF 
 
 weight up to the present moment. The figures by which 
 this is shown demanding particular investigation, another 
 table has been prepared in which both imports and exports 
 are separated into three classes. This division is necessarily 
 rather a rough one, so many articles not belonging decisively 
 to either class. Again, there are many substances not 
 strictly food, which are yet entirely consumed in supplying 
 our inner wants or inclinations, and leave nothing remaining 
 but the bodily power they support, beyond that which, as 
 unfortunately too often happens, they impair or destroy. 
 The broad distinction between that which enters the mouth, 
 and that which employs the hands, has decided whether 
 each article should be classed as one of food, or a material 
 for manufacture. Wine, spix-its, tobacco, have all thus been 
 deemed food, as well as wheat, meat, or sugar. Manufac- 
 tured articles, and those which admit of no particular classi- 
 fication, form the third head under imports. With the 
 exports it has been attempted to distinguish between those 
 originating in foreign materials and such as are of home 
 produce alone. However imperfectly this distinction may 
 have been capable of maintenance, it is equally correct or 
 incorrect for the different years, and may thus serve as a 
 guide for comparison. There are some features in these 
 figures which shed great light upon the main subject of this 
 paper, namely, the growing increase of our imports and 
 decrease of our exports.
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXTORTS. 
 
 71 
 
 Table lY. — ClassiJicd Tiiipnrtfi and EsjiOrts for the Year/f 18.34 to 1876, 
 Di.sfiiiji^iiisfiiii.'^ Articlm for Food from the Imports of Raw Mtitr- 
 riuLs for Mdiiufdctare and other Articles, and the Exports tf British 
 3Iannfuctures Produced from Foreign Materials, and those (f Home 
 Growth. [1877-9 added.'] 
 
 [In Millions of £'s.] 
 
 
 Imports. 
 
 n.-.ii 
 
 Excess 
 
 Exports. 
 
 i 
 
 Total 
 
 \ 
 
 RftAV 
 
 Materiiil-i 
 
 for 
 Manufac- 
 ture. 
 
 
 Manu- 
 
 Manu- 
 
 
 Total 
 
 s 
 
 Retaineil 
 
 for 
 
 Home 
 
 Con- 
 
 Articles 
 
 for 
 
 Food . 
 
 Other 
 Articles. 
 
 'of 
 [mports. 
 
 factured 
 
 from 
 }Iritish 
 
 .M;ite- 
 
 factured 
 from 
 
 Foreign 
 Mate- 
 
 Articles 
 
 of 
 
 Food. 
 
 British 
 
 I'rodiice 
 
 ami 
 
 Jlaiiu- 
 
 
 sumption. 
 
 £ 
 
 
 
 
 riuLs. 
 
 rials. 
 
 
 fuctures. 
 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 1854 
 
 ^34- 
 
 59- 
 
 61- 
 
 14' 
 
 — 
 
 27- 
 
 66- 
 
 4" 
 
 9T 
 
 '55 
 
 J23- 
 
 52- 
 
 57- 
 
 14- 
 
 — 
 
 25- 
 
 65- 
 
 6- 
 
 g6- 
 
 '56 
 
 149- 
 
 62- 
 
 72- 
 
 15" 
 
 — 
 
 31- 
 
 78- 
 
 r 
 
 11& 
 
 '57 
 
 164' 
 
 64- 
 
 82- 
 
 i8- 
 
 — 
 
 35- 
 
 81- 
 
 6- 
 
 122' 
 
 '58 
 
 141' 
 
 57- 
 
 68- 
 
 i6- 
 
 /J* 
 
 30- 
 
 81- 
 
 5" 
 
 I1& 
 
 '59 
 
 154- 
 
 56- 
 
 84- 
 
 1 4' 
 
 —J" 
 
 33- 
 
 91- 
 
 6- 
 
 130- 
 
 1860 
 
 lS2- 
 
 80- 
 
 85- 
 
 17- 
 
 26- 
 
 34- 
 
 97- 
 
 5' 
 
 I3& 
 
 '61 
 
 iSs- 
 
 82- 
 
 79- 
 
 22- 
 
 32' 
 
 31- 
 
 es- 
 
 6- 
 
 I2S' 
 
 '62 
 
 183- 
 
 89- 
 
 71- 
 
 23- 
 
 37' 
 
 33- 
 
 se- 
 
 5" 
 
 124^ 
 
 '63 
 
 igg- 
 
 79- 
 
 94- 
 
 26- 
 
 29' 
 
 37 ■ 
 
 104- 
 
 6- 
 
 147' 
 
 "64 
 
 223- 
 
 79- 
 
 119- 
 
 25- 
 
 37' 
 
 37- 
 
 118- 
 
 5- 
 
 j6o' 
 
 '65 
 
 2i8- 
 
 78- 
 
 112- 
 
 28- 
 
 2g- 
 
 38- 
 
 123- 
 
 5' 
 
 16& 
 
 '66 
 
 245- 
 
 91- 
 
 126- 
 
 28- 
 
 3(>' 
 
 42- 
 
 141- 
 
 6- 
 
 iSg' 
 
 '67 
 
 230- 
 
 lor 
 
 100- 
 
 29- 
 
 27' 
 
 42- 
 
 134- 
 
 s- 
 
 i8r 
 
 '68 
 
 24T 
 
 105- 
 
 110- 
 
 32- 
 
 38- 
 
 42- 
 
 133- 
 
 5- 
 
 i8o- 
 
 '69 
 
 248- 
 
 106- 
 
 108- 
 
 34- 
 
 2g- 
 
 50- 
 
 135- 
 
 5- 
 
 /go' 
 
 1870 
 
 259' 
 
 lOO- 
 
 119- 
 
 40- 
 
 34' 
 
 53- 
 
 1.59- 
 
 r 
 
 igg- 
 
 '71 
 
 271- 
 
 118- 
 
 117- 
 
 36- 
 
 /J* 
 
 58- 
 
 155- 
 
 lo- 
 
 223- 
 
 '72 
 
 2g6' 
 
 136- 
 
 125- 
 
 35- 
 
 —4' 
 
 76- 
 
 173- 
 
 T 
 
 256- 
 
 '73 
 
 315- 
 
 147- 
 
 133- 
 
 35* 
 
 ig- 
 
 85- 
 
 161- 
 
 9' 
 
 255' 
 
 '74 
 
 312- 
 
 143- 
 
 130- 
 
 39- 
 
 2g- 
 
 78- 
 
 154- 
 
 8- 
 
 240' 
 
 '75 
 
 J/6- 
 
 157- 
 
 118- 
 
 41' 
 
 54' 
 
 67- 
 
 149- 
 
 r 
 
 223- 
 
 '76 
 
 3'9- 
 
 159- 
 
 119- 
 
 41" 
 
 83' 
 
 57- 
 
 138- 
 
 T 
 
 201' 
 
 1877 
 
 34'- 
 
 177- 
 
 121- 
 
 43- 
 
 9f 
 
 .55- 
 
 136- 
 
 8- 
 
 igg- 
 
 '78 
 
 3,6- 
 
 167- 
 
 103- 
 
 44" 
 
 84' 
 
 53- 
 
 133- 
 
 7- 
 
 '93' 
 
 '79 
 
 30& 
 
 167- 
 
 100- 
 
 39- 
 
 6t 
 
 52- 
 
 133- 
 
 7- 
 
 ig2' 
 
 It may be obscrvod in the first place, that articles for food 
 which in 1851' were imported to a rather less value tliau 
 those for manufacture, are now vastly in excess. In IS7I
 
 72 TRErONDERANCE OF 
 
 they were nearly equal to each other; by 1875 the one had 
 increased from Il8 to 157, the other scarcely at all. In 
 the present year it is believed the disproportion will be 
 greater. The total amounts of both are less than they would 
 be but for the low prices which have prevailed — a cause, 
 however, which has certainly not affected materials more 
 than food. The conclusion that we are buying more food 
 and selling fewer manufactured goods tallies with the diminu- 
 tion of our exports. 
 
 Again, it may be noticed that the exports of manufac- 
 tures from foreign materials, which in 1854 only exceeded 
 the value of the materials imported by 8 per cent. (66 to 
 61), were last year 18 per cent, in excess (149 to I 18), 
 seeming to comport with what we know of the increasing 
 cost of labour. 
 
 These two circumstances — the growing expenditure for 
 food, and the increasing cost of manufactures — cannot both 
 arise from the prevalence of low prices, nor are they likely 
 to be remedied by any revival of trade to which present in- 
 dications point. If food become dearer it will not cheapen 
 the manufactures we sell, and if at present prices we are 
 being undersold by foreign producers, it is scarcely pro- 
 bable that a general rise in values will at all check the rapid 
 growth of excess in our imports. To recur to the net 
 balances which have to be adjusted ; we find that they are 
 larger than they have ever been before, that they are in- 
 creasing in an accelerated ratio, and that our export trade 
 furnishes no indication of being able to alter their amount, 
 any more than our import does of their being reduced. 
 Further, that all this occurs conjointly with default in remit- 
 tances for dividends on foreign loans, and that on all sides 
 we hear that this extended import and diminished export 
 trade is unaccompanied by the usual rate of profits. 
 
 Unless, therefore, some radical change take place in the 
 conditions of our trade and manufacture, or the system upon 
 which they are conducted, these unfavourable symptoms 
 will every year become more painfully apparent.
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 73 
 
 VI. — Concluding Bemarks. 
 
 Whatj then, are tho requisite changes ? How may the 
 growing evils indicated by the figures we have before us be 
 checked or averted ? Those are questions for the political 
 economist rather than the statistical inquirer. If, however, 
 the investigation we have been pursuing has at all served to 
 make clear facts of importance as regards our natural posi- 
 tion as a manufacturing and trading community, I crave 
 your indulgence for the utterance of a few thoughts which 
 have arisen during its progress. 
 
 The gravity of the situation lies in the fact that whilst we 
 are every year becoming more dependent upon foreign sup- 
 plies for the support of our population, the products of its 
 industry are becoming less necessary to the countries from 
 which those supplies are drawn. Whilst fancied security in 
 our ability to defy competition, and a knowledge of the large 
 profits hitherto accruing to our manutacturers, have induced 
 our artisans and labourers to grow more exacting in their 
 demands, and their masters to be more lavish in their ex- 
 penditure, other nations liave been profiting by our experi- 
 ence, and rival manufactories have been springing up on all 
 sides. Whilst we have been appropriating a large portion of our 
 earnings to the increaseof our productive powers, othernations 
 have been calling forth and utilizing their natural advantages ; 
 so that, for a time at least, supply has overtaken demand, and 
 competition has lowered prices to such an extent as to render 
 a large recovery very doubtful. Whilst we have been freely 
 lending our money to other nations, thereby enabling them to 
 pay for their purchases from us, more than one of those 
 deeply iu our debt have been repudiating or neglecting 
 their pecuniary obligations to us, and so acting that it 
 seems uncertain whether national expenditure may not be 
 forced upon us for their maintenance, or repression, as the 
 case may be. Is it, then, for us to sit down in inactivity or 
 despair? Such has not been the Anglo- Saxon character
 
 74 PREPONDERANCE OF 
 
 hitherto ; such "will not be the conduct of Anglo-Saxons 
 now. If we have been running riot in the "seven ears full 
 and good," and are about to suffer from the " seven thin 
 ears blasted with the cast wind/' we may learn such lessons 
 from adversity as to lay the foundation of a higher state of 
 prospeinty than any we have yet attained to. 
 
 Our labourers must learn that if trade is to be maintained 
 the cost of production must be limited. To this end wages will 
 have to fall, but if so, the cost of living will fall also ; and 
 if not, there is no need for them to earn less, for temperance 
 and economy of time will enable them to produce more. 
 It is said that we spend annually i 50 millions in intoxica- 
 ting drinks, as much as all our food imports cost us. At 
 least one-half of this might be easily saved by the lower 
 classes for better employment, and the country would be 
 spared the expenditure of an enormous sum in the mainte- 
 nance of poor-houses, hospitals, police, and gaols. 
 
 Our capitalists, and those who live upon them, need to 
 restrain the heavy expenditure accompanying the cravings 
 of ambition, the undue pursuit of pleasure and frivolous 
 idleness. They will seek to invest their money in places 
 where new industries are to be established, and new markets 
 to be found, whilst a large number of those whose brains are 
 their only capital, must cease from the wild speculation by 
 which so many strive to live ; seeking to make their fortunes 
 not by honest industry, but by being sharper than their 
 neighbours, thus, in truth, enhancing the cost to the con- 
 sumer of all that passes through their hands. 
 
 Our rulers, now that the days of heavier taxation are 
 looming before us, may well endeavour to reduce the costly 
 expenditui-e of preparation for war, and devote more atten- 
 tion to extending our peaceful influence upon, and inter- 
 course with, the countries which want but this to become 
 valuable customers and faithful friends. 
 
 But are we not all labourers, capitalists, rulers ? and as 
 such are not these lessons for ourselves ? The food we eat, 
 the water we drink, the air we inspire, are but so many con-
 
 IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS. 75 
 
 stituentsin creating and maintaining the physical power and 
 the nervous energy which must be expended in labour of 
 some sort, or they become inert ; are there not abundant 
 fields for their employment, as so many have already found, 
 in new countries, or in old ones capable of being renewed ? 
 
 Are we not all capitalists ? The knowledge we have 
 imbibed, the experience we have inherited or acquired, the 
 brain power we possess, are but so much capital capable of 
 profitable investment; especially when accompanied with, 
 or supported by, the money capital of which there is no lack 
 for promising uses. 
 
 Again, are we not all rulers ? The liberty for self-govern- 
 ment, the parental, conjugal, and social relationships in which 
 we stand, are so many powers to be wisely employed in 
 ruling ourselves and others, for our own and their advan- 
 tage, which need but to be so devoted for the economizing 
 of our present means, and the production of material addi- 
 tions to our varied resources. 
 
 I firmly believe that Britain now stands tottering on the 
 eminence to which she has attained, and that it rests entirely 
 with her sons whether a further rise or a rapid fall is to mark 
 her future history. It may be said that no nation has 
 hitherto stayed in its upward progress without suffering a 
 speedy descent. Other nations have possessed wealth, 
 science, art, but none have ever combined with these the 
 higher gifts which we enjoy. Let these but be consecrated 
 to the advancement of civilization and Christianity through- 
 out the world, and I, for one, have no fear for our lasting 
 prosperity or enduring glory. Say not these are but the 
 visions of an enthusiast: such enthusiasm has had its share 
 in making us what we are, it may yet play an important part 
 in* the salvation of our country, and the regeneration of the 
 world.
 
 IV. 
 
 On the Increasing Dependence of this Country upon 
 Foreign Supplies for Food/ 
 
 HAVING occasion, in preparing a recent paper for the 
 Statistical Society of London, to divide the value 
 of the Imports, under the several headings of Food, Raw 
 Materials, Manufactures, &c., I was surprised to find how 
 large a proportion of the whole fell to the first of these, 
 viz.. Articles for Food : — and having been honoured by a 
 request from your President that I would contribute a 
 paper to the Transactions of this Society, I felt that I could 
 not well choose a more appropriate subject than the one 
 which stands for to-night's discussion. To citizens of this 
 northern metropolis, which has so large a share in pro- 
 viding clothing, not for our own country alone, but for the 
 inhabitants of the whole world, the question of how its 
 workers are supplied with food can scarcely fail to be one 
 of the greatest interest ; whilst the present position of our 
 trade and manufactures rendei's its due consideration of the 
 highest importance to the national progress and well- 
 being. 
 
 In treating this matter, I propose first to inquire what 
 are the actual facts as to our present consumption of food 
 from abroad, and to trace the growth of the provision 
 imports in their several subdivisions. Next, to compare 
 the foreign supplies with those of home growth, touching 
 upon the sources from which our necessities are supplied. 
 
 ^ Read before the Mancliester Statistical Society, April lltli, 1877.
 
 DEPENDENCE UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 77 
 
 Then to consider briefly some points of special importance 
 as regards the interests of both consumers and producers ; 
 and, lastly, to view the question in connection with the 
 financial and other relations in which this country stands 
 to the rest of the world. 
 
 I. That we may get a connected and comparative view 
 of the food imports for a series of years it will be well, in 
 the first place, to look at them in their total money value, 
 that being the only denomination under which the various 
 weights, measures, &c., can be collected together. Yet 
 this is in some measure faulty, for the fluctuations from 
 year to year in the prices of the different articles prevent 
 the value from being a strictly true representative of 
 quantity. This we shall be able to see for the several 
 articles, but not quite accurately for all together. In the 
 paper referred to, I started with 1854, that being the 
 earliest year in which the values were collected on a system 
 at all analogous to that now adopted, so that one period 
 could be compared with another. For the present purpose 
 1 commence with 1857, as being just twenty years back, 
 and the first also of the peaceful era which followed on the 
 termination of the Crimean War. In that year the total 
 value of the foreign and colonial goods retained for con- 
 sumption in this country amounted to £164,000,000, of 
 which 64 was for articles of food, 82 for raw materials for 
 manufacture, and 18 for manufactured articles.^ Last year, 
 (1876) these amounts were a total of £319,000,000, of which 
 159 was for food, 119 raw materials, and 41 other; from 
 which it will appear that 39 per cent, of the whole in the 
 former year, and 50 per cent, in the latter, went for food. 
 In making this separation of food from other articles it is 
 not possible to be absolutely correct, for so many substances 
 admit of a two-fold use. Take, for instance, olive oil, Avhich 
 is actually used both as food and in manufactures ; or the fat 
 of animals, which may appear on our table at meal-times for 
 food or in the shape of candles to lighten its darkness. 
 ^ Vide J). 72.
 
 78 ON OUR INCI{EASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 Again, it may be askocl wliat is food ? Meat and tobacco 
 are totally different in their use or abuse, but both enter 
 the mouth and arc tliere consumed ; both tlierefore are 
 classed under this head, together with wines, spirits, &c. 
 
 In the following table the figures for each successive year 
 since 1856 are set forth in millions (to two decimals,) and 
 placed alongside the ascertained population of the United 
 Kingdom ; and as it would be unsafe to take for compari- 
 son the amount of either in a single year, an average for 
 the first and last three years has been worked out, showing 
 that whilst the number of consumers had increased from 
 28f to 321 millions, the food furnished from abroad had 
 advanced from 59 to 153, a growth of the one by 16, of the 
 other by 160 per cent. This means that on an average 
 each member of the community now consumes to the value 
 of two and a half times as much foreign food as he did 
 twenty years back, somewhere about £5 for £2.
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUITLIES FOR FOOD. 
 
 79 
 
 Table I. — Shuwiiig the Total Vulne of Food imported hctirecn 18o7 and 
 \87(i, under the several heads of Animal and Cereal Food, Sugar, 
 ^"c, and Beverages, Alcoholic, and other. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Years. 
 
 Popula- 
 tion. 
 
 Total 
 Value. 
 
 Animal. 
 
 Cereal. 
 
 Sugar, 
 Fruit, &c. 
 
 Beverages. 
 
 Miscel- 
 
 Alcoholic. 
 
 Other. 
 
 laneous. 
 
 1857 
 
 28-19 
 
 64-00 
 
 7-60 
 
 20-51 
 
 18-52 
 
 5-68 
 
 5-63 
 
 6-06 
 
 '58 
 
 28-39 
 
 57-00 
 
 6-00 
 
 21-50 
 
 15-81 
 
 1-13 
 
 5-90 
 
 6-66 
 
 '59 
 
 28-59 
 
 56-00 
 
 6-77 
 
 18-24 
 
 14-83 
 
 3-69 
 
 6-59 
 
 5-88 
 
 '60 
 
 28-78 
 
 80-00 
 
 11-15 
 
 32-13 
 
 13-90 
 
 5-43 
 
 7-59 
 
 9-80 
 
 '61 
 
 28-97 
 
 82-00 
 
 12-46 
 
 35-94 
 
 15-62 
 
 5-07 
 
 7-25 
 
 5-66 
 
 '62 
 
 29-26 
 
 89-00 
 
 13-28 
 
 39-5 J 
 
 15-20 
 
 4-88 
 
 8-60 
 
 7-51 
 
 '63 
 
 29-43 
 
 79-00 
 
 14-01 
 
 26-99 
 
 1515 
 
 5-51 
 
 10-39 
 
 6-95 
 
 '64 
 
 29-63 
 
 79-00 
 
 16-96 
 
 20-92 
 
 18-94 
 
 6-63 
 
 8-56 
 
 6-99 
 
 '65 
 
 29-86 
 
 78-00 
 
 2005 
 
 21-28 
 
 15-30 
 
 4-96 
 
 8-83 
 
 7-58 
 
 '66 
 
 3008 
 
 91-00 
 
 20-40 
 
 31-00 
 
 14-86 
 
 6-45 
 
 1004 
 
 8-25 
 
 '67 
 
 30-33 
 
 101-00 
 
 17-28 
 
 42-67 
 
 16-31 
 
 7-78 
 
 9-20 
 
 7-76 
 
 '68 
 
 30-62 
 
 105-00 
 
 16-65 
 
 41-29 
 
 18-54 
 
 7-32 
 
 1083 
 
 10-37 
 
 '69 
 
 30-91 
 
 106-00 
 
 21-37 
 
 39-61 
 
 19-45 
 
 7-31 
 
 9-22 
 
 901 
 
 '70 
 
 31-21 
 
 100-00 
 
 20-.i8 
 
 34-39 
 
 20-37 
 
 7-63 
 
 9-17 
 
 806 
 
 '71 
 
 31-51 
 
 118-00 
 
 23-53 
 
 42-60 
 
 22-05 
 
 9-39 
 
 9-40 
 
 11-03 
 
 '72 
 
 31-84 
 
 136-00 
 
 22-27 
 
 52-89 
 
 28-04 
 
 9-15 
 
 10-71 
 
 12-94 
 
 '73 
 
 32-12 
 
 1-1700 
 
 28-41 
 
 52-69 
 
 27-06 
 
 10-75 
 
 10-64 
 
 17-45 
 
 '74 
 
 32-43 
 
 1 43-00 
 
 30-44 
 
 51-47 
 
 26-21 
 
 9-09 
 
 11-20 
 
 14-59 
 
 '75 
 
 32-75 
 
 157-00 
 
 34-14 
 
 54-7-1 
 
 27-34 
 
 9-48 
 
 13-26 
 
 18-04 
 
 '76 
 
 3309 
 
 15900 
 
 37-20 
 
 53-04 
 
 27-69 
 
 10-54 
 
 11-43 
 
 19-10 
 
 In 20 
 years 
 
 
 202700 
 
 380-35 
 
 733-43 
 
 391-19 
 
 137-90 
 
 184-44 
 
 199-69 
 
 Averages 
 
 30-40 
 
 101-35 
 
 19-02 
 
 36-67 
 
 19-56 
 
 6-90 
 
 9-22 
 
 9 98 
 
 1st 3 
 years 
 
 28-39 
 
 59-00 
 
 6-79 
 
 20-08 
 
 16-39 
 
 3-50 
 
 6-04 
 
 6-20 
 
 Last 3 
 years 
 
 32-75 
 
 15300 
 
 33-93 
 
 53-09 
 
 27-08 
 
 9-70 
 
 11-96 
 
 17-24 
 
 Increase 
 percent. 
 
 16 
 
 160 
 
 403 
 
 165 
 
 62 
 
 184 
 
 101 
 
 174 
 
 1877 
 
 33-45 
 
 177-00 
 
 35-62 
 
 6.^-29 
 
 35-98 
 
 9-50 
 
 1300 
 
 17-61 
 
 '78 
 
 33-88 
 
 167-(I0 
 
 39 '.(8 
 
 60-11 
 
 29-15 
 
 7-84 
 
 12 08 
 
 17-84 
 
 '79 
 
 34-16 
 
 107-00 
 
 39-14 
 
 63-23 
 
 30-30 
 
 7-99 
 
 11-79 
 
 14-55 
 
 The further columns of this table subdivide the total 
 values under the different heads of animal, cereal, and 
 other vegetable food used in a solid state ; such as arc
 
 80 ON OUIl INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 employed for beverage are divided into alcoholic, and non- 
 alcoholic : with another column (partly estimated) of such 
 as scarcely fall under either definition, or are not sufficiently 
 distinguished in the official accounts to be assigned to their 
 proper heads. Amongst these latter we have tobacco, 
 spices, oil, &c., and also a class of articles which at first 
 sight may appear most improperly placed — namely, guano, 
 manure, &c. These, however, are mainly employed to 
 stimulate the soil in its production of food, and therefore 
 add to the supply just as much as they would if by their 
 means the larger crops were raised for our use abroad 
 instead of at home. Thus much of explanation is necessary 
 to guard against undue conclusions being drawn from these 
 figures, and it must also be remembered that as in the 
 selection of food from other substances, so in this further 
 separation complete certainty is not attainable ; but as in 
 each year the same rule has been followed, the progress in 
 each class may be truly traced. A few words on each 
 heading may be desirable, reserving closer remarks till we 
 come to deal with quantities. 
 
 In none of the classes has the value risen to anything 
 like the extent that it has in animal food, the average for 
 the first three years being under 7, for the last three nearly 
 34 millions, fully five times as great as in the former. In 
 this class there are included living animals, fresh and salted 
 meat, fish and poultry, and their products, butter, cheese, 
 eggs, lard, &c. The increase in price on live and fresh 
 meat being neutralized by reductions in other descriptions 
 renders the comparison between the two periods fair. 
 
 Under the head of cereal produce is included every 
 description of grain, flour, rice, and farinaceous substances 
 generally, no distinction being made between that which is 
 adapted for human as distinct from animal food. That 
 which is consumed by oxen, sheep, and poultry is in fact 
 but human food under another form ; but it would have 
 been desirable, had it been possible, to have excluded at 
 least so much as serves for the support of horses. Another
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 
 
 81 
 
 deduction also is requisite on account of the grain used for 
 malting and distilling. The quantities thus employed 
 cannot be ascertained, but an estimate is possible of the 
 whole consumption for these purposes of home and foreign 
 produce taken together, and since whatever of home growth 
 is converted into beer or spirits has to be replaced by 
 importations from abroad, it will not be unfair to deduct it 
 all from the heading of cereal food, and add it to that of 
 alcoholic beverage. The following table shows both 
 quantity and value of the grain thus converted, and in 
 addition those of sugar and molasses which are devoted to 
 the same use. 
 
 Table II. — Quantities and Value of Grain converted into Beer and 
 Spirits, also of Sugar and Molasses. 
 
 [Millions to two decimals.] 
 
 Years. 
 
 Grain. 
 
 Value. 
 
 Sugar and 
 Molasses. 
 
 Value. 
 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 £ 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Jg 
 
 1857 
 
 25-60 
 
 10-88 
 
 •03 
 
 •05 
 
 '58 
 
 24-40 
 
 9-13 
 
 -06 
 
 •06 
 
 '59 
 
 25-90 
 
 9-20 
 
 -08 
 
 -07 
 
 '60 
 
 23-60 
 
 10-02 
 
 •u 
 
 -12 
 
 '61 
 
 24-35 
 
 9-91 
 
 •34 
 
 •24 
 
 '62 
 
 23-62 
 
 7-36 
 
 •51 
 
 •30 
 
 '63 
 
 25-76 
 
 9-05 
 
 •31 
 
 •19 
 
 '64 
 
 28-61 
 
 9-55 
 
 •05 
 
 •05 
 
 '65 
 
 28-46 
 
 9-50 
 
 •08 
 
 •07 
 
 66 
 
 29-34 
 
 11-25 
 
 •22 
 
 •18 
 
 '67 
 
 26-77 
 
 12-19 
 
 •47 
 
 •45 
 
 '68 
 
 27-88 
 
 13-43 
 
 •47 
 
 •44 
 
 '69 
 
 30-07 
 
 11-55 
 
 -46 
 
 •47 
 
 '70 
 
 32-11 
 
 12-32 
 
 •34 
 
 •31 
 
 •71 
 
 30-11 
 
 11-74 
 
 •41 
 
 •42 
 
 '72 
 
 33-81 
 
 12-84 
 
 •56 
 
 -53 
 
 '73 
 
 35-31 
 
 13-77 
 
 •84 
 
 •84 
 
 '74 
 
 35-03 
 
 15-41 
 
 1-04 
 
 1-06 
 
 '75 
 
 35-41 
 
 14-87 
 
 1-01 
 
 1-04 
 
 '76 
 
 37-43 
 
 1310 
 
 1-08 
 
 1^01 
 
 
 583-57 
 
 227-07 
 
 8-47 
 
 7-90 
 
 Average 
 
 29-18 
 
 11-35 
 
 ■42 
 
 -40 
 
 The correction thus made under this head materially 
 reduces the value of the cereal supplies, making the 
 
 G
 
 82 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 average of the first throe years to be 10*34 millions instead 
 of 20"08 as shown in Table I., and that of the last three 
 38*61 instead of 53*07. The increase of one period over 
 the other being 273 per cent, instead of 165 per cent. 
 
 Next in order is the class of sugar, fruit, and vegetables, 
 which are thrown together as being all of them vegetable 
 products occupying a subsidiary place to that of the staple 
 articles of bread and meat. A transfer from this head to 
 that of alcoholic beverage, similar to that from the previous 
 head, must also be made here, though not to anything like 
 the same amount, for as yet the quantity of saccharine 
 produce used in brewing and distilling is but small in 
 comparison with that of grain. The two averages will be 
 16*33 millions instead of 16*39, and 25*59 instead of 26*63. 
 The rate of increase 57 instead of 62. Sugar forms by far 
 the larger amount of value under this head, and though the 
 increase is less than with meat, it would have been some- 
 what more than it is but for the extensive reduction in the 
 price consequent upon the diminution first, and total aboli- 
 tion of the duty afterwards. This is one of the articles, 
 the consumption of which is likely to grow rapidly, and to 
 continue at a low price. 
 
 The vanous substances in use as beverage, whether 
 imported in the liquid form fit for drinking, or as the 
 materials to be subsequently prepared for consumption, 
 admit of division into the two sub-classes of alcoholic and 
 other liquors. Making the necessary transfers from cereals 
 and sugar, we find that the first three years averaged 13*30 
 millions for the one and 6*04 for the other, whilst the last 
 three show totals of 25*43 and 12*15 respectively, the in- 
 crease upon the one having been 91 and the other 101 per 
 cent. This, it must be remarked, does not represent either 
 . the total or the comparative expenditure by the consumers 
 of alcoholic as compared with non-intoxicating fluids, for 
 the major part of the value assigned to the former is simply 
 that of the raw material from which the liquor is prepared. 
 This, in the case of spirits and beer, is a very small proper-
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 83 
 
 tion of the outlay, the chief cost being in the manufacture 
 of the finished liquor, whilst tea, coffee, &c., require little 
 or no expense to fit them for immediate use. 
 
 Thus far we have been dealing with values only, and find 
 that during the period of twenty years the total cost of our 
 foreign food has been rather more than two thousand 
 millions of pounds sterling, thus made up : — 
 
 Cereals 506 millions. Average 2.5'3 
 
 Sugar and A^egetable Products 382 „ „ 19"I 
 
 Animal Products 381 „ „ 19-05 
 
 Beverages — Alcoholic 374 „ „ 18*7 
 
 „ Non-alcoholic 185 „ ,, 9*25 
 
 IMiscellaneous 199 „ „ 9*95 
 
 2,027 „ „ 101-35 
 
 Or, if wo take the averages of the two triennial periods 
 as the present and former consumption, we should say the 
 expenditure is in round numbers, for — 
 
 £ £ 
 
 Cereals 39 millions, as aga 
 
 Animal Products 34 „ 
 
 Sugar, &c 26 „ 
 
 Beverages — Alcoholic 25 „ 
 
 „ Non-alcoholic 12 „ 
 
 Miscellaneous 17 „ 
 
 nst 10 formerly. 
 7 „ 
 17 „ 
 13 
 
 6 „ 
 6 
 
 153 59 
 
 The true measure, however, of our dependence upon 
 foreign supplies is furnished by quantities rather than 
 values. The principal ones are set forth in the following 
 table, in which wheat is divided from other grain and from 
 rice ; the living animals are reduced to their weight in 
 meat, and added to the importations of that coming here 
 either salted or fresh ; including also fish, but excluding 
 poultry, the weight of which is not ascertained. Butter, 
 cheese, and lard are separately shown, as also sugar and 
 dried fruit (currants and raisins). These several articles
 
 84 
 
 ON OUR INCIIEASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 mako up tho bulk of the food, properly so called, received 
 from abroad. Those used exclusively as beverages, find a 
 place in a separate table, both being constructed upon the 
 same plan as that relating to values ; and showing the 
 results, as before, in millions to two places of decimals : — 
 
 Table III. — Showing the Quantities of the principal Articles of Food. — 
 Imports retained for Home Consumption, 1857-76. 
 
 
 Animal. 
 
 Cereals, &c.. 
 
 &c. 
 
 Other Vegetable's. 
 
 Years. 
 
 Meat. 
 
 Butter, 
 
 Cheese, 
 
 and Lard. 
 
 Wheat. 
 
 Other 
 Grain. 
 
 Rice. 
 
 Sugar 
 
 and 
 
 Molasses. 
 
 Currants 
 
 and 
 Raisins. 
 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 18.57 
 
 1-35 
 
 1-00 
 
 17-23 
 
 18-09 
 
 2-24 
 
 8-01 
 
 •44 
 
 '58 
 
 1-17 
 
 •86 
 
 2316 
 
 21-50 
 
 2-56 
 
 9-56 
 
 •64 
 
 '59 
 
 1-21 
 
 •92 
 
 21-43 
 
 18-99 
 
 •33 
 
 9-56 
 
 •78 
 
 '60 
 
 1-85 
 
 1-61 
 
 31-81 
 
 33-43 
 
 •35 
 
 9-33 
 
 •92 
 
 '61 
 
 1-81 
 
 2^01 
 
 36-26 
 
 27-90 
 
 1-61 
 
 10-26 
 
 -91 
 
 '62 
 
 2-46 
 
 2-21 
 
 49-95 
 
 25-86 
 
 2-65 
 
 10-49 
 
 •98 
 
 '63 
 
 2-99 
 
 2^20 
 
 30-74 
 
 30-25 
 
 1-46 
 
 1019 
 
 1-08 
 
 '64 
 
 3-31 
 
 2-04 
 
 28-74 
 
 19-31 
 
 1-53 
 
 10-24 
 
 103 
 
 '65 
 
 3-48 
 
 2^04 
 
 25-79 
 
 24-63 
 
 •57 
 
 11-17 
 
 109 
 
 '66 
 
 3-16 
 
 2^23 
 
 29-30 
 
 34-82 
 
 113 
 
 11-70 
 
 1-06 
 
 '67 
 
 2-55 
 
 2-27 
 
 38-88 
 
 27-79 
 
 1-76 
 
 1209 
 
 ]-07 
 
 '68 
 
 2 29 
 
 2-17 
 
 36-19 
 
 31-27 
 
 2-85 
 
 12-22 
 
 115 
 
 '69 
 
 3-22 
 
 2^45 
 
 44-36 
 
 36-83 
 
 3-74 
 
 12-47 
 
 1-15 
 
 '70 
 
 3-08 
 
 2^36 
 
 35-34 
 
 38-40 
 
 2-25 
 
 13-86 
 
 1-11 
 
 '71 
 
 3-96 
 
 2^93 
 
 43-31 
 
 40-59 
 
 2-37 
 
 13-86 
 
 1-23 
 
 '72 
 
 4-07 
 
 2-60 
 
 47-39 
 
 55-68 
 
 4-03 
 
 14-08 
 
 1-35 
 
 '73 
 
 5-48 
 
 3^15 
 
 50-53 
 
 44-32 
 
 3-33 
 
 15-35 
 
 1-23 
 
 '74 
 
 511 
 
 3^39 
 
 48^47 
 
 45-23 
 
 3-00 
 
 15-47 
 
 1-30 
 
 '75 
 
 5-69 
 
 3-55 
 
 59-45 
 
 49-51 
 
 3-48 
 
 17-91 
 
 1-25 
 
 '76 
 
 6-31 
 
 3-65 
 
 50-97 
 
 67-14 
 
 3-05 
 
 16-62 
 
 1-46 
 
 In 20 
 years. 
 
 64-55 
 
 45^64 
 
 749-30 
 
 691-54 
 
 44-26 
 
 244-44 
 
 21-23 
 
 Average 
 
 3-23 
 
 2-28 
 
 37-47 
 
 34-58 
 
 2-21 
 
 12-22 
 
 1-06 
 
 First 
 3 years. 
 
 Last 
 3 years. 
 
 1-24 
 
 •93 
 
 20-61 
 
 19-53 
 
 1-71 
 
 9-04 
 
 •62 
 
 5-70 
 
 3-53 
 
 52-96 
 
 53-96 
 
 3-18 
 
 16-66 
 
 1-34 
 
 Increase 
 percent. 
 
 360 
 
 280 
 
 157 
 
 176 
 
 86 
 
 84 
 
 116 
 
 
 32 
 
 5 
 
 1G3 
 
 8 
 
 S
 
 UrON FOREIGN SUrPLIES FOR FOOD. 85 
 
 Looking first at the animal food^ and especially at the 
 meat, we shall see that the quantity now imported is very 
 nearly five times as great as it was twenty years since, the 
 exact increase being 360 per cent., and that this has been 
 reached by tolerably steady progress. Each year^ with a 
 few exceptions, has advanced upon its predecessor in an 
 accelerated ratio, until now we have a total supply of more 
 than 6 million cwts. which, if equally divided amongst all 
 the inhabitants of the United Kingdom would give rather 
 more than 21ilbs. per head per annum. Although not 
 shown in the table, the proportion of live to dead meat was 
 last year as G to 15, one which will be speedily altered if 
 the importations now taking place from America are con- 
 tinued. During the thi'ee months of this year already 
 elapsed, the beef fresh or slightly salted has been 132,000 
 cwts., and meat preserved otherwise than by salting, 
 125,000 cwts., as against 24,000 cwts. and 38,000 cwts. in 
 the same period of last yeai', more than quadrupling the 
 amount. 
 
 With butter, cheese, and lard, the growth has been 
 equally continuous, though not so large. The increase is 
 280 per cent., or nearly four times, the total quantity at 
 present being rather more than half the weight of meat — if 
 equally divided 12 fibs, per head. Taking the two together 
 the increase is 325 per cent., and the weight falling to the 
 share of each individual about H-oz. per diem throughout 
 the year. The bearing of these calculations will be seen 
 further on when comparing the foreign supply with home 
 ])roduce. But even this scarcely represents the full acces- 
 sion to the stock of animal food for which we are indebted 
 to foreign supplies, since a considerable portion of grain, 
 notably barley, peas, and maize, as well as oil-cake, is 
 employed in feeding home-raised cattle and pigs. We 
 have seen that of the farinaceous articles imported last 
 year some 37 out of 07 million cwts. are probably appro- 
 priated to alcoholic production, either directly or to com- 
 pensate for home produce so employed. The balance may
 
 86 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 perhaps be equally divided between feeding for horses and 
 meat-producing animals. To what extent, however, this 
 may increase the home-grown animal food there are not 
 sufficient data for determining. We may here notice the 
 different rate of increase in the quantity and the value, 325 
 per cent, against 403, showing an advance in price on the 
 whole equal to 19 per cent. 
 
 Of the corn and grain, other than wheat, very little can 
 be deemed directly available for human food, although most 
 of it, as we have stated, virtually serves this purpose, and 
 what does not, leaves the land at home free to grow that 
 which does ; but rice, of which only a small quantity is used 
 for distilling, may fairly be classed with wheat. Taking 
 these two together, we find that the average of the first 
 three years, 23 million cwts., has grown to 56 in the last, 
 more than doubling the supply. This quantity, divided 
 amongst the whole population, would • provide a daily al- 
 lowance of rather more than half a pound weight of bread 
 for each person. In this class of food the advance in price 
 has been almost identical with that in quantity. 
 
 The quantity of wheat shown in the table includes flour, 
 of which 1 cwt. is reckoned equivalent to 1^ cwt. of wheat. 
 The quantities of this and other descriptions of grain vary 
 from time to time more than most articles — a necessary 
 consequence of fluctuating yield in home produce and vary- 
 ing harvests in the countries with which we deal. Dividing 
 the twenty years into periods of five, we find the supply 
 from abroad to have averaged per head : — 
 
 . 11/3 
 9/9 
 11/10 
 10/10 
 
 1857-1876 132-52 10/11 
 
 How far this rate of increase results from greater popu- 
 
 1857-61 . 
 
 . 97-73 lbs. 
 
 Price per cwt. 
 
 1862-66 . 
 
 . 119-71 „ 
 
 i} 
 
 1867-71 . 
 
 . 139-84 „ 
 
 >3 
 
 1872-76 . 
 
 . 173-01 „ 
 
 f>
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 87 
 
 lation, combined with stationary or diminished home growth, 
 will be seen when the two are considered together. 
 
 Of the rice imported, some portion, perhaps a consider- 
 able one, is employed for other purposes, such as the manu- 
 facture of starch, &c., but the whole quantity 3*18 million 
 cwts. is so small compared with that of wheat, that any 
 allowance for these purposes, or for distillation, would but 
 little affect the average. 
 
 Coming then to the last class, sub-di\adcd into sugar and 
 dried fruit, we find that the first average of 9"66 millions 
 has grown into 18"00 in the latter, the increase of 86 per 
 cent, being far lower than in the classes of animal food and 
 of wheat. Of sugar, itself, after allowing for that converted 
 into alcohol, the difference between the first and the last 
 years of the series is that between 7 'OS and 15 "54, equal to 
 96 per cent. In value, the variation has been in a contrary 
 direction, 14*41 having only grown to 17'09, or but 12 per 
 cent., the difference of the two rates thus showing a fall in 
 price equivalent to 40 per cent. 
 
 The several articles thus enumerated constitute the bulk 
 of the solid food imported, but there are two others, of some 
 importance, included in the value table (though to save space 
 not particularized in the quantity one), eggs under animal, 
 and potatoes under vegetable. 
 
 Of these we imported : — 
 
 In 1857— Eggs 126-82 millions. 
 
 Value -32 
 
 „ 1876— „ 753-36 „ 
 
 „ 2-61 
 
 „ 1857— Potatoes -96 „ 
 
 „ -18 
 
 „ 1876— „ 6-03 „ 
 
 ,, 1-74 
 
 1 • 1 
 
 In the next table there are shown those articles which 
 are imported in the liquid form, or are designed for use as 
 beverage ; and one other, not belonging either to food or 
 drink, but yet properly classed amongst those pertaining 
 to the ordinary consumption of a large portion of the 
 population.
 
 88 
 
 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 Table IV. — Showing the quantities of the principal Imported articles 
 retained for home use as Beverages ; also of Tobacco. — 1857-76. 
 
 
 Alcoholic. 
 
 Non- Alcoholic. 
 
 Tobacco. 
 
 
 Spirits. 
 
 Wiues. 
 
 Tea. 
 
 Coffee. 
 
 Cocoa. 
 
 
 Gals. 
 
 Gals. 
 
 lbs. 
 
 lbs. 
 
 lbs. 
 
 lbs. 
 
 1857 
 
 4-73 
 
 6-60 
 
 69-13 
 
 34-35 
 
 2-65 
 
 32-68 
 
 '58 
 
 4-58 
 
 6-27 
 
 73-20 
 
 35-21 
 
 2-86 
 
 33-92 
 
 '59 
 
 4-93 
 
 6-78 
 
 76-30 
 
 34-33 
 
 3-01 
 
 34-63 
 
 '60 
 
 5-52 
 
 6-72 
 
 76-82 
 
 35-50 
 
 3-23 
 
 35-23 
 
 '61 
 
 5-19 
 
 10-69 
 
 77-93 
 
 35-20 
 
 3-41 
 
 34-83 
 
 '62 
 
 5-19 
 
 9-76 
 
 78-79 
 
 34-45 
 
 3-62 
 
 35-42 
 
 '63 
 
 5-57 
 
 10-42 
 
 85-18 
 
 32-76 
 
 3-71 
 
 37-37 
 
 '64 
 
 6-30 
 
 11-40 
 
 88-60 
 
 31-36 
 
 3-86 
 
 38-01 
 
 '65 
 
 6-74 
 
 11-99 
 
 97-83 
 
 30-51 
 
 3-83 
 
 38-90 
 
 '66 
 
 7-80 
 
 13-24 
 
 102-27 
 
 30-63 
 
 4-05 
 
 40-50 
 
 *67 
 
 8-34 
 
 13-67 
 
 110-99 
 
 31-28 
 
 4-23 
 
 40-72 
 
 '68 
 
 8-40 
 
 15-06 
 
 106-82 
 
 30-36 
 
 5-11 
 
 40-98 
 
 '69 
 
 8-17 
 
 14-73 
 
 111-80 
 
 28-84 
 
 5-70 
 
 41-37 
 
 '70 
 
 8-44 
 
 15-08 
 
 117-55 
 
 30-23 
 
 6-15 
 
 41-37 
 
 '71 
 
 8-93 
 
 16-14 
 
 123-40 
 
 30-60 
 
 7-25 
 
 42-50 
 
 '72 
 
 9-07 
 
 16-77 
 
 127-66 
 
 31-17 
 
 7-79 
 
 43-68 
 
 '73 
 
 10-26 
 
 17-91 
 
 131-88 
 
 31-79 
 
 8-28 
 
 45-48 
 
 '74 
 
 10-68 
 
 17-17 
 
 137-28 
 
 31-26 
 
 8-85 
 
 46-58 
 
 '75 
 
 11-85 
 
 17-24 
 
 145-33 
 
 32-05 
 
 9-96 
 
 47-82 
 
 '76 
 
 11-55 
 
 18-66 
 
 149-13 
 
 33-34 
 
 10-43 
 
 48-57 
 
 In 20 years... 
 
 152-24 
 
 256-30 
 
 2087-89 
 
 645-22 
 
 107-98 
 
 800-56 
 
 Average 
 
 7-61 
 
 12-81 
 
 104-40 
 
 32-26 
 
 5-40 
 
 40-03 
 
 „ first 3 yrs. 
 
 4-75 
 
 6-55 
 
 72-88 
 
 34-63 
 
 2-84 
 
 33-74 
 
 „ last 3 „ 
 
 11-36 
 
 17-69 
 
 147-25 
 
 32-22 
 
 9-75 
 
 47-66 
 
 Increase per 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 cent 
 
 140 
 
 170 
 
 102 
 
 —7 
 
 243 
 
 41 
 
 
 1 
 
 57 
 
 
 ■v 
 
 . 71 
 
 
 
 We have already (Table II.) seen both quantity and value 
 of the grain, &c., converted into alcoholic beverage, and in 
 this table only deal with the spirits and wine imported in a 
 completed state ; the amount of beer brought hither being 
 quite inconsiderable, • not more than two to three thousand 
 barrels a year. Taking wine and spirits together, the
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 89 
 
 growth since 1857 has been from 11*30 to 29"05 million 
 gallons, or 157 per cent. That of spirits alone from 4*75 to 
 11'36, or 140 per cent.; and of wine from 6'55 to 17*69, or 
 170 per cent. The total value has risen from 3'50 to 9'93, 
 or 184 per cent., not so great a difference as to render par- 
 ticular observation necessary. Both have fallen in price, 
 spirits more than wine, but wine being the dearer article 
 and the one which has increased the most, has tended to 
 raise the whole value. 
 
 The class of non-intoxicating drinks, or rather the ma- 
 terials from which they are derived, manifests on the whole 
 an increase of 71 per cent. only. This arises mainly from 
 the declining use of coffee, which is now actually 7 per cent, 
 less than it was in 1857. Tea has increased 102 per cent., 
 and cocoa 243, or together 107 per cent., considerably less 
 than the alcoholic liquors have done. The average quan- 
 tities in the first and last years having been : — 
 
 Tea 72-88 
 
 and 147-25 
 
 CofTce 34-63 
 
 and 32-22 
 
 Cocoa 2-84 
 
 and 9 7 -J 
 
 Comparing this increase of quantity with that of value, it 
 appears that tea, by far the larger of three articles, has in- 
 creased in weight almost in the same ratio as the whole has 
 in cost, that is, in both instances almost exactly double. 
 
 Of tobacco, the growth has been from 33*74 millions to 
 47*66, or 41 per cent., happily a less rate of progress than 
 (excluding coffee) in any other article. Its price has not 
 very materially altered, nor, being in its imported state a 
 cheap article {8d. to Is. per lb. for the principal portion) , is 
 its value sufficient to afi'ect greatly any calculations of our 
 total imports. Yet as an indication of the tendency of the 
 popular taste, it becomes no less important than it is to the 
 revenue as one of our highly remunerative tax-pajring 
 articles. 
 
 II. In endeavouring to compare the extent of foreign 
 supply with that furnished by home produce, it -will bo 
 necessary to take a lesser range of years, since the infer-
 
 90 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 mation of the earlier period embraced in the tables was not 
 collected with the same detail as it now is^ but a fair com- 
 parison can be drawn for the last ten years. In 1868 Mr. 
 Caird thus calculated the average value of the agricultural 
 produce of the United Kingdom, consumed annually : — 
 
 Corn of all kinds £84,700,000 
 
 Beef and mutton 47,200,000 
 
 Butter and cheese 30,100,000 
 
 Potatoes 18,000,000 
 
 £180,000,000 
 
 The foreign supplies for the same articles he placed at 
 £40,000,000, giving a proportion of one-fifth of the total 
 supply. Since that period it is not probable that there has 
 been much variation in the home produce, but the foreign 
 supplies have increased 80 per cent. The average of the 
 two columns, Animal and Cereal, in Table I., during the first 
 ten years, gives £39'67, singularly near to Mr. Caird's esti- 
 mate, and for the last ten years £71*78. This proportion 
 agrees well for the total value of the food imports, which, 
 as we have seen before, has, during twenty years, risen 160 
 per cent., or, assuming an even progress, 8 per cent, per 
 annum. For the past year, however, these two classes give 
 a total of £91,000,000, and if we add to this £2,000,000 for 
 potatoes, we shall have £93,000,000 j rather more than half 
 the estimate for home produce. On this showing we at 
 present depend for corn, meat, and potatoes together, on 
 foreign supplies for somewhat more than one-third the value 
 of that we consume. 
 
 Turning, however, to quantities, we descend into closer 
 comparison as regards the two staple articles of bread and 
 meat. In the following table a careful estimate has been 
 made of the relative weights drawn from the two sources. 
 Mr. Caird has kindly furnished me with estimates of the 
 average produce of wheat per acre in this country for each 
 year since 1867, and applying these to the number of acres
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 
 
 91 
 
 shown by the Agricultural Returns to be in cultivation, I 
 arrive at the quantities given, averaging a growth of 
 54,000,000 cwts. Against this there is a foreign supply at 
 the average of 45,000,000 ; but if wo take the foreign im- 
 portations for the last three years we get an average of 
 53,000,000, from which it may be safely inferred that our 
 bread is equally of home and foreign origin. 
 
 Table V. — Quantities of Home -raised Wheat and Meat, compared with 
 Foreign Imjwrtations, during the last ten years. [1877-9 addedJ] 
 
 
 Wheat. 
 
 JI 
 
 -at. 
 
 Years. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Home. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 Home. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 Cwts. 
 
 1867 
 
 40-65 
 
 38-88 
 
 25-22 
 
 2-55 
 
 '68 
 
 74-26 
 
 3619 
 
 24-61 
 
 2-29 
 
 '69 
 
 62-27 
 
 44-36 
 
 24-11 
 
 3-22 
 
 '70 
 
 65-22 
 
 35-34 
 
 2496 
 
 3-08 
 
 '71 
 
 53-62 
 
 43-31 
 
 25-37 
 
 3-96 
 
 '72 
 
 54-53 
 
 47-39 
 
 26-13 
 
 4-07 
 
 '73 
 
 44-77 
 
 50-53 
 
 26-23 
 
 5-48 
 
 '74 
 
 62-43 
 
 48-47 
 
 26-46 
 
 5-11 
 
 '75 
 
 42-12 
 
 59-45 
 
 2604 
 
 5-69 
 
 '76 
 
 43-99 
 
 51-06 
 
 25-87 
 
 6-31 
 
 
 543-86 
 
 454-98 
 
 25500 
 
 41-76 
 
 1877 
 
 37-27 
 
 62-54 
 
 25-63 
 
 6-24 
 
 '78 
 
 5;j*35 
 
 58-76 
 
 2500 
 
 6-99 
 
 '79 
 
 28-00? 
 
 70-32 
 
 24-00? 
 
 7-94 
 
 As regards meat, an eminent agriculturist, Mr. H. 
 Thompson, in '' The Journal of the Royal Agricultural So- 
 ciety," 1872, entered into an elaborate calculation of the 
 annual produce of our flocks and herds. Applying his data, 
 as to numbers and weight of those killed for this purpose, to 
 the existing number in each year — as stated in the Board of 
 Trade Returns, I obtain the weight given in the table, — 
 averaging 25t million cwts. per annum. The weight thus 
 derived is less than it would be were the data employed 
 those on which Dr. Playfair founded his calculations in a
 
 92 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 paper published in 1870 ; but as the object here is to compare 
 the British and foreign supplies^ rather than to ascertain the 
 actual amount^ and Mr. Thompson gives data for estimating 
 both, it is safer to adopt his figures. For two reasons, 
 however, it is probable that an addition should be made to 
 the home weight, — the cattle are brought to market at an 
 earlier age, and therefore the proportion slaughtered is 
 greater, — and they are fed to an heavier weight. It will be 
 right, too, to take into consideration the supply of fish which 
 takes the place of meat. It may not, therefore, be incor- 
 rect to set down the whole supply at 36 million cwt., of 
 which one-sixth comes from abroad. 
 
 In calculating their relative worth as " flesh formers '^ it 
 is estimated by Dr. Play fair that the requisite daily allow- 
 ance of albuminous material is three ounces per head, which 
 for the year will be found in 480 lbs. of corn, or 550 lbs. of 
 meat, that is 8 lbs. of meat will only go as far in support of 
 the animal frame as 7 lbs. of corn. On this supposition our 
 30 million cwt. of fish and flesh is equivalent to about 2G of 
 corn, and our 6j- millions of foreign to 5~. 
 
 Of potatoes, Mr. Caird estimated the weight consumed in 
 1867 to be equal to that of bread, about 1 lb. daily for each 
 person; but there were then 1,500,624 acres under crop, and 
 now only 1,394,254. In converting wheat into flour there 
 is a loss of one-fifth, and flour into bread a gain of one- 
 third. This would give a consumption of 90 million cwts., 
 but as compared with grain. Dr. Playfair estimates the feed- 
 ing power to be but one-tenth, equal, therefore, to 9 millions 
 cwts. of wheat for home, and half-a-million for foreign. 
 
 Of other grain, some portion enters into the supply of 
 human food, and so does rice ; but in the absence of any 
 data on which to make calculation, I assume that these on 
 either side follow the proportion of wheat, &c. Butter and 
 cheese also enter largely into consumption, the home produce 
 of the latter has been estimated to me by a good authority 
 at 100,000 tons, and butter at half the cheese. The impor- 
 tations of last year amounted to 75,000 tons of cheese and
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUrrLIES FOR FOOD. 93 
 
 81,000 of butter, together rather more than that of native 
 manufacture. 
 
 To sum up these several estimates for reducing the various 
 descriptions of food to their equivalent in wheat, our con- 
 sumption may be thus stated : — 
 
 Home produce. Foreign supply. 
 Wheat . . . .54 million cwts. 53 
 
 Meat, equal to . . 26 „ ,, 5^ 
 
 Cheese and Butter = 3 „ „ 3 
 
 Potatoes . . . ^ 9 ,, ,, i 
 
 92 62 
 
 The conclusion thus arrived at would appear to be that 
 for absolute sustenance we rely upon home and foreign 
 produce in somewhere about the proportion of three to two- 
 fifths. The articles which hold a secondary place as means 
 of support are more foreign than British, and adding these 
 to those of higher importance, it is probable that both in 
 value and quantity, about one-half of our food is of foreign 
 origin. 
 
 One more calculation may be made. If the nutrition to 
 be found in wheat is such that 480 lbs. suffices for a year's 
 food, and in meat that 550 lbs. is necessary, then 
 
 53 million cwts. wheat will support 121 millions people. 
 6'r „ „ meat do. 1| „ „ 
 
 6 „ „ potatoes do. 5 „ „ 
 
 3 „ ,, butter and cheese 4- ,, 
 
 14^ 
 
 Hence on this computation of the 33 millions of inhabitants 
 in the United Kingdom, 18 millions may be sustained 
 on food grown at home, and 15 on that received from 
 abroad. 
 
 The results obtained by these different processes, though
 
 94 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 not identical, are sufficiently near to each other to justify the 
 opinion that neither can he very far from the truth. 
 
 If such be the case as it at present stands, the question 
 arises what alterations are likely to take place in the future ? 
 Our capacity for home production is by no means exhausted. 
 If we were wise enough to retain the refuse which now pol- 
 lutes our rivers and is lost in the ocean, the soil would yield 
 larger returns. Higher cultivation and the reclamation of 
 waste or imperfectly drained lands might add to the ave- 
 rage under crops, and increase the fertility of that already so 
 employed ; but we can scarcely expect any of these mea- 
 sures to be extensively adopted. They are all dependent 
 upon the cost, and every day^s experience seems to show 
 that it is cheaper to bring from abroad than to force pro- 
 duction at home. Were it even otherwise, should our 
 country continue a prosperous one, the growing demands 
 for space to build on, to plant for pleasure grounds, and to 
 cover with roads, are likely to outstrip any additions which 
 can be made. Neither can it be desired that we should be 
 content with diminished or stationary supplies. The popu- 
 lation ought, under the influence of sanitary regulations, and 
 the spread of hygienic knowledge, to increase more rapidly 
 than it has hitherto done, and to substitute meat food for 
 alcoholic drink. 
 
 From the combined influences of these several causes we 
 must calculate upon an extended rather than a diminished 
 demand upon the productions of other countries, and every 
 year look to depend less upon our own resources. 
 
 III. To be thus dependent upon extraneous sources for 
 so large a portion of the national food may probably to some 
 minds be the occasion of much anxiety, as rendering our 
 very existence precarious, and as being derogatory to our 
 national pride ; but provided our circumstances be such as 
 to preclude it resulting in financial embarrassment, we shall 
 find it to be in every respect advantageous, or at least to have 
 so many benefits connected with it as to far outweigh any 
 considerations of an opposite character. Leaving for the
 
 UrON FOREIGN SUITLIES FOR FOOD. 95 
 
 present the question of finance, it may not be out of place to 
 briefly state some of the reasons why we should welcome 
 rather than deprecate such a condition. 
 
 In the first place, as a manufacturing nation, having some- 
 thing to ofi'er in exchange for the products we require, it is 
 a powerful inducement for other nations to become our cus- 
 tomers. Large portions of the world as yet less civilized 
 than our own, where labour is consequently cheaper than 
 with us — having climates more suitable than that of Eng- 
 land for producing the food we need — are enabled to raise 
 wheat, to feed cattle, and to grow sugar on easier terms 
 than we, and thus the whole world may, in one shape or an- 
 other, become tributary to our necessities. With our com- 
 mand of shipping, there need never be any real difficulty in 
 transporting their produce to our shores, and the cost of 
 conveyance, instead of being so much paid out of the coun- 
 try, repays our own sailors and shipowners for the labour 
 they bestow and the capital they employ. By this means 
 we are brought into close and constant communication with 
 various nations, to whom, but for the necessity for inter- 
 course, we should remain strangers. From many of them 
 we may learn much, and to many more we may be the in- 
 struments, as we have been and now are, of conveying the 
 knowledge of the arts and sciences, the blessings of civili- 
 zation, and the truths of religion. There is nothing like 
 extended intercommunication for enlarging the mind, 
 sharpening the intellect, and warming the heart. 
 
 For ourselves, confined as we are within a few degrees 
 of climate and limited, so long as we maintained our insular 
 isolation, to the vegetable and animal products of our own 
 narrow sphere, it is something to have almost all the varie- 
 ties of meat, fruit, and vegetables which the world brings 
 forth, placed within our reach. Variety of food is no less 
 beneficial to the health than pleasant to the taste and grati- 
 fying to the sight. It is generally admitted that we owe 
 most of our national vigour to the admixture of class and 
 race, and when properly adjusted there can be little doubt
 
 9G ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 that a variety of food is conducive to bodily health and en- 
 joyment. With the present search after appliances for the 
 removal of perishable substances from one side of the ocean 
 to the othor^ there is no saying to what extent this may be 
 pursued, or that the most delicate products will not ere long 
 be capable of being transported hither from the very ends 
 of the world. If meat can bo brought from America, in such 
 perfect preservation as that which is now arriving daily, the 
 game, the fish, the fruit, the vegetables of every clime may 
 be furnished to our tables. New markets being thus found 
 for the superabundance of other people, we shall also find 
 new openings for the sale of our manufactures. The natural 
 advantages of more favoured countries will thus be shared 
 with us, and the acquired comforts which we possess may 
 be participated in far more largely than they otherwise 
 would be by those who are separated from us by the longest 
 distances. 
 
 Again, nothing is more likely to prevent war than the 
 mutual dependence of one nation not on another only, but 
 upon all others. Where commercial relations exist, and 
 friendships arise, there will ever be a desire for the peaceful 
 settlement of all differences ; and in this respect, the nation 
 which is the strongest, whether it be in money, in manufac- 
 turing skill, or in productive power, will always have more 
 depending upon it than it has upon others. The larger 
 the sphere over which its operations extend, the less the pro- 
 bability of any one country being able to interfere with its 
 dealings with others. 
 
 It would be very easy and pleasant to enlarge greatly on 
 this head, but to pursue it further would unduly extend the 
 limits of this paper. We proceed therefore to the last topic 
 with which I propose to tax your attention. 
 
 lY. There remain for consideration, then, the financial 
 relations of this country with the rest of the world, resulting 
 from this importation of food. During the past year (1876) 
 the value of goods of foreign origin retained for use in this 
 country was, as shown in the ofiicial returns, £319,000,000 ;
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 
 
 97 
 
 and that of the produce of this country's growth and manu- 
 facture exported from hence £200,000,000, showing an ap- 
 parent excess of imports to the extent of £119,000,000. 
 Certain revisions of these figures have, however, to be made, 
 such as allowances for freight, &c., &c., which justify the 
 assumption that the realexces.s of imports for which we have 
 in some way or other to make provision is somewhere about 
 £75,000,000. The connection between this balance and the 
 food question will be best seen by an examination of the 
 figures for the last ten years. The original values are de- 
 rived from the publications issued from the Custom House 
 and Board of Trade, representing the worth of the foreign 
 goods retained for home use at the time of their arrival in 
 this country; and in like manner of the British exports at 
 the time of their departure. The revised figures do not in 
 any way conflict with the official. They are an estimate of 
 my own, based upon reasons on which it is not necessary 
 here to enter, but which will bo found fully detailed in a 
 preceding paper. They are presumed to represent the cost to 
 this country of the goods it receives, and of those with which 
 it parts ; the difference between the two being the amounts 
 which have to be met by actual payments in money, or by a 
 set ofi" in the adjustment of accounts between this nation and 
 those with which it trades. The sums are shown in millions 
 of pounds only. 
 
 
 5C 
 00 
 
 1 
 
 i 
 
 o 
 
 00 
 
 00 
 
 00 
 
 CO 
 
 187-1. 
 1875. 
 
 » 
 
 Original Values. 
 Imports 
 
 £ 
 
 230 
 181 
 
 £ 
 
 247 
 180 
 
 £ 
 
 248 
 190 
 
 £ 
 
 259 
 200 
 
 £ 
 
 271 
 223 
 
 £ 
 
 296 
 256 
 
 £ 
 
 315 
 255 
 
 £ 
 310 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 319 
 201 
 
 Exports 
 
 240 224 
 
 1 
 
 Excess of former 
 
 49 
 
 67 
 
 58 
 
 221 
 196 
 
 59 
 
 231 
 207 
 
 48 
 
 2-in 
 
 230 
 
 40 
 
 263 
 266 
 
 60 
 
 281 
 267 
 
 72 1 92 
 
 118 
 
 Revised Kstimate. 
 Imports 
 
 •205 
 188 
 
 220 
 187 
 
 278 
 •>51 
 
 281 
 
 284 
 
 Exports 
 
 209 
 
 
 
 
 Balance 
 
 17 
 
 33 
 
 25 
 
 24 
 
 10 
 
 —3 
 
 14 
 
 27 ^R 
 
 75 
 
 
 

 
 98 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 The total of these balances gives an average of 27 mil- 
 lions a year, but the steadiness and rapidity with which they 
 have latterly grown forbids the expectation that so small an 
 amount is all that will have henceforth to be provided for. 
 Judging by the indications the trade of the past quarter 
 affords, a further increase of 25 millions on that of last year 
 is by no means unlikely. Be it, however, 75 or 100 mil- 
 lions, the sum is so large that it may well excite uneasiness 
 as to how it is to be met. The connection of this with the 
 outlay for food is obvious. It is evident that this country, 
 not being one in which the precious metals are found, can- 
 not pay for its purchases in gold or silver ; it may do so for 
 a limited period by suffering a drain upon the bullion pre- 
 viously accumulated, but this has not been the case hitherto. 
 Out of the past twenty years there have been only three in 
 which the import of bullion has not exceeded the export, 
 the average rate of addition to our stock having been five 
 millions per annum, a quantity not more than requisite to 
 meet the extensions of our circulation and the absorption in 
 the arts and manufactures. This year, from the fulness of 
 our cofiers, and the diminution of our exports of goods, is 
 likely to be one in which some considerable amount of 
 treasure may be sent away. 
 
 The other som'ces from which the country may derive 
 the means of meeting its obligations are two-fold — the 
 dividends or interest of capital lent or accumulated abroad, 
 and the profits or earnings remitted to this country for use 
 or investment. Of neither is it easy to estimate the amount, 
 nor, however valuable or interesting such information 
 would be, is it necessary for the present argument, which is, 
 that it cannot be increasing in the ratio of our liabilities. 
 We have but to note the defaults of the nations to whom we 
 have lent largely, to see that the stream from the first source 
 is not enlarging ; and to listen to the universal chorus of 
 complaints as to the diminished profits of trade abroad to 
 understand that the flow from the second source must be 
 lessening. I am quite aware that it is now a received axiom
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 99 
 
 in the science of political economy that a prosperous coun- 
 try should import more than it exports, otherwise its trade 
 cannot be profitable; but we are not simply traders sending 
 out so much to sell at a profit, and with the proceeds to pur- 
 chase that which will be of greater value when it reaches 
 our shores than when it left the place from whence it came. 
 We are capitalists also, investing our means in foreign 
 countries to which we can only remit them in the shape of 
 goods exported, or by suffering the profits accruing abroad to 
 remain for employment there instead of at home. AVereall 
 our capital absorbed in investments here, the excess of im- 
 ports of goods and bullion would represent the gains of trade, 
 })ut scattered as our capital is all over the world, the excess 
 may anse either from increased income accruing abroad or 
 from capital withdrawn from foreign uses. Another expla- 
 nation may be offered, and probably this is the right one, 
 that in the five years in which our exports were the largest, 
 1871-75, we were lending or had lent largely to foreign 
 nations, and that those loans were remitted partly in goods 
 — money we did not send — whilst a large portion never 
 went out at all, being absorbed in commissions, &c., by 
 operators at home. But if so, what does this prove ? That 
 the trading and manufacturing prosperity of those years 
 were at the expense, not so much of the foreigners who 
 bought our goods, as of our capitalists at home who lent 
 the money with which they were paid for, and that to revive 
 our trade we must resort again to reckless lending. 
 
 In whatever light, therefore, we may view those growing 
 balances, it would seem to be sound policy — it may shortly 
 become absolutely unavoidable — that we should seek to re- 
 duce them in one or both of two ways, by buying less or by 
 selling more. It is with the former of these expedients we 
 have to deal in relation to our present inquiry, yet a few- 
 words on the latter way may not afterwards be out of 
 place. 
 
 The following figures for the same period will sliow tlio 
 proportion of the above total imports, which nri' due to
 
 100 
 
 ON OUR INCREASING DEPENDENCE 
 
 articles for food, raw materials for manufacture, and other 
 articles respectively : — 
 
 
 1 
 
 00 
 2 
 
 00 
 
 00 
 
 1871. 
 1872. 
 
 00 
 
 
 ui 
 
 50 
 
 00 
 
 Food 
 
 Raw Materials 
 
 Manufactures 
 
 £ 
 
 101 
 100 
 
 29 
 
 £ 
 
 105 
 110 
 
 b2 
 
 £ 
 
 106 
 108 
 
 34 
 
 £ j £ £ 
 
 100 118 136 
 
 119 117 125 
 
 40 36 35 
 
 £ 
 
 147 
 
 133 
 
 35 
 
 £ 
 
 143 
 130 
 
 39 
 
 £ 
 
 157 
 118 
 
 41 
 
 £ 
 
 159 
 119 
 
 41 
 
 
 1 "' 
 
 315 1 312 
 
 470 450 
 
 
 Total Values 
 
 Percentage of Food .... 
 
 230 
 440 
 
 247 
 43° 
 
 248 
 43" 
 
 259 271 -296 
 39°, 44'' 46" 
 
 316 
 
 50" 
 
 319 
 50» 
 
 Percentage of Food j 
 to Raw Materials. 1 
 
 101 
 
 95 
 
 98 
 
 84 101 109 111 110 
 
 133 
 
 134 
 
 An examination of this table will show that of 319 mil- 
 lions worth of imports for last year 159 were for food, 119 
 for raw materials, and 41 for manufactured and miscel- 
 laneous articles, and that of these the past ten years^ growth 
 has been the most rapid in articles for food. We must not 
 wish for any reduction in the supply of raw materials, lest 
 thereby we reduce also the manufactures we have to sell. 
 Of manufactured articles we may somewhat curtail the sup- 
 ply from abroad by reverting to a less extravagant style of 
 living, but even then we shall lose in the customers from 
 whom we take them. In food, as we have already seen, 
 there is no probability that we can do without the staple 
 articles of which our imports are largely composed, but in 
 one branch we may, and 1 believe we must retrench, that is 
 in our consumption of alcoholic liquors, both those which 
 are imported as such, and those which are manufactured 
 from grain, whether imported or of home growth. 
 
 Referring back to Table I. we shall see that the value of 
 alcoholic beverages imported last year amounted to 
 £11,230,000, and in Table II, that grain to the value of 
 £13,100,000, with sugar and molasses to the value of 
 £1,010,000 were converted into beer and spirits, gh'ing a 
 total of more than twenty-five millions of money. This it
 
 UPON FOREIGN SUrPLIES FOR FOOD. 101 
 
 must be remembered is not the expense to the consumer, 
 that is something far beyond ; but the simple cost to the 
 nation of the materials of which its " drink " is composed, 
 and just in proportion as the use of alcohol is lessened may 
 this charge upon its resources be diminished, or, what 
 would be far better, devoted to productive uses. Of food 
 proper, that which nourishes life and creates the force, 
 which, rightly employed, produces the manufactures with 
 which to purchase food, we cannot have too much ; but 
 whatever opinions may be held as to the use of alcoholic 
 liquors at all, it is undeniable that the greater portion of 
 our consumption goes to impair life, health, strength, and 
 thus to curtail the productions we need to exchange for 
 our food. Nor is this all, it exhausts our resources in pro- 
 viding for repression of crime and the relief of destitution, — 
 it diverts from profitable employment the time, thought, 
 talent, on the right use of which our national prosperity 
 depends ; and by debasing the character, and destroying 
 the skill of our workers in all ranks, it unfairly weights ua 
 in the race of competition with countries where temperance 
 is the rule and intemperance the exception. If it be 
 thought that I dwell unduly upon this point, I do so from 
 the thorough conviction that it is to a radical reform in our 
 national ideas and habits in this respect that we must look 
 for a revival or maintenance of our manufacturing and 
 trading prosperity. 
 
 Something further than this is, however, necessary. Wo 
 must not only utilize our food supplies by converting them, 
 through the bodily and mental power they maintain, into 
 products wherewith we may trade with other nations ; but 
 must seek, as well, to enlarge the sphere of our mercantile 
 operations. At present it would seem as if our produce 
 and manufiictures had exceeded the wants of the world, or 
 at least its power to pay for them, and it is of little use to 
 manufacture more if customers are not forthcoming. This 
 evil can only bo met by opening up new markets, l)y send- 
 ing forth our brains and our bullion to find emj)l()yinen.t in
 
 102 DErENDENCE UPON FOREIGN SUPPLIES FOR FOOD. 
 
 places, such as those in Africa, where there are lands of 
 surpassing fertility, rich in vegetable and mineral wealth. 
 These countries are teeming with peoples, wanting but our 
 help to raise them from the degradation in which they are 
 sunk to the level at least of such civilization as may create 
 the wants which we have the power to supply, and enable 
 them in return to bring forth the food and other com- 
 modities which our growing population and increasing 
 desires may enable us to consume. Let us as a nation be- 
 come thrifty and temperate ; cherish the character for 
 honesty and justice which the greed of gain has gone far to 
 destroy, and there are untold stores of wealth ready to be 
 brought to our shores. There are unnumbered blessings 
 ready to be poured out upon us, if we will be but true to our 
 creed ; and whilst not unmindful of the advantage to our- 
 selves, strive to cultivate higher aims in colonizing, civi- 
 lizing, and Christianizing the lands and people which geo- 
 graphical discovery and scientific research are daily bringing 
 within our reach.
 
 V. 
 
 The Nature and Extent of our Foreign Food Supplies, 
 AND THE Sources from whence they are Derived.' 
 
 THE latest published official returns of the trade of the 
 United Kingdom show the total value of the imports 
 during last year to have been very little short of £394 
 millions, that of the preceding year having been a trifle over 
 375. Looking back for a period of twenty years, it vnll be 
 seen that in 1857 the value was £188 millions. Of this 
 amount £24 millions was exported, thus leaving 164 for 
 consumption or manufacture at home. The proportion 
 thus taken away in 1877 is not yet ascertained, but that of 
 1876 having been rather more than £56 millions, that of last 
 year may, allowing for the slackness of trade, be safely esti- 
 mated at 53, which would leave the value retained in the 
 country at £341 millions, being £22 millions beyond that of 
 1876, and more than double that of 1857. The goods thus 
 allowed for as re-exported are only those which leave the 
 country in an unaltered state, having simply come to it as 
 a market from whence other nations draw their supplies. 
 Dr. Forbes Watson, in a very interesting paper recently read 
 before the Colonial Institute, has carried this deduction a 
 step farther, and reasoning from reliable data, estimates 
 that in 1876 foreign raw material to the value of £58 
 millions was worked up into goods which, having undergone 
 manufacture here, were exported as British. Applying 
 
 ' Siippli'iuent to the " Statist,'' March 23rd, 1878, and "Jouniul of 
 Statistical Society," June, 1878.
 
 104 
 
 THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF 
 
 the same method of calculation to the exports of 1857, we 
 may assume that the value of foreign goods thus dealt with 
 would then have been £36 millions. Again, dealing with 
 the figures for 1877 in the same manner, we may assume 
 that in addition to the foreign goods exported in their 
 original condition there were those converted into }3ritish 
 manufactures of the value of £56 millions. The comparison 
 between the two periods will stand thus : — 
 
 [000,000's omitted.] 
 Foreign and Colonial Goods Imported 
 
 1857. 1877. 
 
 .£188 ... £394 
 
 Exported unchanged 24 
 
 Exported worked up 3G 
 
 53 
 56 
 
 60 
 
 109 
 
 Ketained and consumed at home £l28 £285 
 
 Such being the full value of the goods for which we are 
 indebted to foreign producers, the portion in each of these 
 years which consisted of food has been shown in the previous 
 paper, in which the growth of consumption and population 
 were compared. 
 
 Without pretending to very strict accuracy of detail, the 
 total values of the first and last year in the series may be 
 thus subdivided : — 
 
 [000,000's omitted.] 
 
 1857. 
 
 Animal £8 
 
 Cereal 10 
 
 Sugar and other Vegetables 18 
 
 Beverages — Alcoholic 16 
 
 —Other 6 
 
 ^Miscellaneous 6 
 
 £64 
 
 1877. 
 
 £36 
 52 
 36 
 23 
 13 
 
 n 
 £177 
 
 The extreme importance of these figures, and the great 
 disparity between those of the two periods, become more
 
 OUR FOKEIGN FOOD SUPPLIES. 105 
 
 apparent when brout^ht into juxtaposition with the value of 
 goods exported at the same dates ; thus : — 
 
 [000,000"s omitted.] 
 
 1857. 1877. 
 
 British Produce and Manufacture £l22 ... £199 
 
 Deduct Foreign Material in tlieiu 3() ... 56 
 
 £S6 ... £143 
 
 f'oreign Food Consumed 64 ... 177 
 
 Other Foreign Goods retained 64 ... 108 
 
 £128 £285 
 
 In the former year we exported, as the produce of Briti.sh 
 labour and capital, £86 millions, to meet an import of food to 
 the extent of £64, an excess of £22. In the latter, £143, 
 to meet £177, a deficiency of £34 millions. 
 
 Although for the purpose of comparing one description of 
 food with another and the several years one with the other, 
 as well as for viewing the whole subject in its financial 
 bearings, it is necessary to express the whole in money value, 
 the true measure of our dependence upon foreign supplies is, 
 since the prices vary so much from time to time, best fur- 
 nished by quantities rather than cost. The staple articles 
 obtained from abroad were fully shown in the tables of the 
 preceding paper (pp. 84, 88) . 
 
 The Sources of Supply. 
 
 Coming now to consider the sources from whence these 
 supplies are derived, and following the same subdivision of 
 articles under the principal heads into which the various 
 descriptions of food may be conveniently divided, the table 
 hero given will show the value of each kind which we 
 received from the diflcront countries to whom we are 
 customers for the year 1870. The several totals vr[\\ not 
 altogether agree with those of the former totals, because 
 in both many small items fail to be included and get sunk
 
 106 THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF 
 
 among the miscollanoous. Neither is it possible to deduct 
 from each country the amount of its produce which is 
 re-exported. This, however, is of little importance, the 
 ohject being not altogether to see how much from each pro- 
 ducing country we keep to supply our wants, but how much 
 there is available if we should wish to keep it. The miscel- 
 laneous items not being shown here, the comparison must be 
 with the total of the first of the tables already referred to, less 
 those there included; and deducting 18"42 from 159'00, we 
 have 141 '58, an almost identical total with that of 141*29 
 arrived at in the latter table after deducting from the full 
 value of the goods re-exported the whole amount stated as 
 imported. The totals of the different kinds come suffi- 
 ciently near to the former ones to establish the substantial 
 accuracy of each compilation.
 
 OUR FOREIGN FOOD SUPPLIES. 
 
 107 
 
 Table showing the Countries from irhich the specified Articles of Food 
 Imported in 1876 were obtained, with the respective values of each 
 class. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimaliij 
 
 Countries. 
 
 Russia 
 
 Sweden 
 
 Norway 
 
 Denmark 
 
 Germany 
 
 H..llan<l 
 
 Belgium 
 
 France 
 
 Pi)rtugal 
 
 Spain 
 
 Italy 
 
 Austria 
 
 Greece 
 
 Turkey 
 
 Other Places. 
 
 Europe. 
 
 British India . 
 
 Australia 
 
 China 
 
 Japan 
 
 Other Places . 
 
 Egypt 
 
 Cape Mauritius, &c. 
 Other Places 
 
 Africa. 
 
 United States 
 
 Canada & Newfoundland 
 
 South America 
 
 West Indies 
 
 Total 
 Value. 
 
 7-16 
 2-38 
 •20 
 .3-74 
 0-33 
 8-56 
 3-35 
 8-12 
 1-93 
 4-39 
 •95 
 •56 
 1-59 
 5-74 
 108 
 
 7008 
 
 13-34 
 1-98 
 
 10-54 
 
 •07 
 
 2^49 
 
 Asia & Australia..: 28-42 
 
 2-41 
 
 •98 
 
 103 
 
 4-42 
 
 3648 
 4-66 
 4-59 
 871 
 
 Animal 
 Produce. 
 
 •16 
 2*64 
 4-87 
 
 1-72 
 6-23 
 
 •34 
 •42 
 •02 
 
 •13 
 
 Cereal 
 
 and 
 Farina- 
 ceous. 
 
 22-39 
 
 7-15 
 
 208 
 
 •04 
 
 1-10 
 
 2-67 
 
 -27 
 
 •02 
 
 1-90 
 
 -17 
 •42 
 •56 
 
 4-99 
 •51 
 
 21-88 
 
 •36 
 
 •36 
 
 4-84 
 1-GO 
 
 •06 
 •13 
 
 Sugar, 
 Fruit, 
 and 
 Vege- 
 tables. 
 
 2-24 
 1-87 
 134 
 4-48 
 
 •31 
 1-72 
 
 ■38 
 
 1-59 
 75 
 •41 
 
 15-09 
 
 1-54 
 
 •40 
 
 2-30 
 
 6-63 
 
 4-24 
 
 2-15 
 -02 
 •50 
 
 2-67 
 
 America I 54-44 
 
 Imported 
 
 JU-exiwrted . 
 
 Total. 
 
 157-36 
 1607 
 
 141-29 
 
 I3'90 
 
 I -So 
 
 •09 
 
 1579 
 
 38-54 
 1-54 
 
 3700 
 
 21-41 
 
 2-81 
 
 •54 
 
 •06 
 
 •25 
 -86 
 
 •44 
 
 Beverages. 
 
 Alco- J 
 holic. 
 
 Other. 
 
 •01 
 
 •53 I -02 
 
 •76 
 
 •21 
 
 5-51 
 
 1-28 
 
 2-08 
 
 •13 
 
 •03 
 
 10^54 
 
 •02 
 •02 
 
 •02 
 
 •06 
 
 1-55 
 
 •01 
 •04 
 •07 
 
 •12 
 
 75 
 
 •OS 
 
 2-23 
 
 6-65 
 
 24-82 
 
 9-68 
 
 5600 
 2-42 
 
 53-58 
 
 30-56 
 2-55 
 
 28-01 
 
 -31 
 
 1-01 
 
 12-04 
 1-29 
 
 •ID 
 •06 
 
 •18 
 
 6-94 
 
 10-14 
 01 
 •04 
 
 i7-»3 
 
 •06 
 •02 
 
 •08 
 
 1-73 
 •99 
 
 1^32 I 2-83 
 
 20-22 
 S-27 
 
 10-75 j 11-95
 
 108 
 
 THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF 
 
 Looking; first to the magnitude of our demands upon the 
 several producing countries, we find that the United States 
 stands far before any other ; next in rank comes France, 
 British India, China, and Germany ; then the West Indies, 
 Holland, Russia, Turkey, and British North America — the 
 values from these ten standing relatively in the following 
 order : — 
 
 [000,000's omitted.] 
 
 United States £36 
 
 France 18 
 
 British India 13 
 
 China 11 
 
 Germany 10 
 
 West Indies £9 
 
 Holland 9 
 
 Russia 7 
 
 Turkey 6 
 
 British North America... 5 
 
 These together amount to £124 millions, very nearly four- 
 fifths of the contributions to our necessities from the whole 
 world. Of these, Germany and Holland, more particularly 
 the former, are to a great extent not the real sources of 
 supply, but only the countries through which the rivers and 
 railways of the Continent pass their supplies to our shores. It 
 is probable that some portion of the receipts from the United 
 States are really the produce of Canada, shipped from Port- 
 land during the month when the na\ngation of the St. 
 Lawrence is closed. Turkey too gets the credit of much 
 Austrian produce which finds its way down the Danube. 
 China, on the other hand, sends, to the extent of perhaps a 
 million, by way of Hong Kong. 
 
 Pursuing another mode of division, and collecting together 
 those which come from our own Indian and Colonial posses- 
 sions, we shall find about £31 millions, or one-fifth of the 
 whole, to come from places which own our sway ; this pro- 
 portion being nearly equally divided between India and the 
 Colonies, both together, however, falling short of that which 
 the United States alone sends us. 
 
 The geographical division between the four quarters of the 
 globe will be apparent from an inspection of the table itself; 
 Europe, as would be expected from its contiguity and its 
 more ancient settlement and populous condition, being the
 
 OUR FOREIGN FOOD SUrPLIES. 109 
 
 largest supplier. America, however, is rapidly advancing 
 upon her, and will doubtless before long do more towards 
 provisioning us than the older continent. Asia and Australia 
 are yearly becoming of more value to us in this respect, but 
 the development of Africa as a granary and grazing terri- 
 tory yet remains to be accomplished. 
 
 Tlie Different Kinds supplied by Different Countries. 
 
 Passing from the extent of our whole supplies to the nature 
 of those which each country furnishes, it appears that of 
 animal food the United States again sends us the most — 14 
 millions out of 39; and judging from the speed with which 
 she is taking up the trade of butcher as well as of provision 
 merchant, her superiority in this branch of supply will yearly 
 advance. Next to her comes France, with 6 millions, largely 
 derived from the poultry yard, 2 millions being in eggs and 
 chickens, with nearly 4 in butter. Holland figures for 
 between 5 and G millions, of which 3 millions are in dairy 
 produce and 2 in meat, mostly alive; Germany for nearly 
 5 millions divided much in the same proportion as Holland; 
 Denmark for nearly 3 milbons, and Belgium less than 2. 
 Our own Canadian Dominion sends nearly 2 millions. 
 
 As supplying grain and flour, the United States again heads 
 the list with 21 millions, her vast and luxuriant corn-fields 
 enabling her to send from both sides of the continent ; near- 
 ness of access from the Atlantic being as much to her 
 advantage there as the superior quality and ability to 
 bear the transit in a marketable condition is to the Pacific. 
 Russia docs not send us in an appreciable quantity any food 
 other than grain, of which we took fi-om her in 1876 to the 
 value of £7 millions. This quantity was largely increased 
 in 1877, probably by 50 per cent., her desire to anticipate a 
 blockade of her ports pushing forward the supplies which 
 pecuniary necessities rendered it very desirable to convert 
 into cash, and inducing the forwarding of considerable 
 quantities by way of internal communication through other
 
 110 THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF 
 
 Continental ports. Turkey, including of course the 
 Roumanian provinces, has sent us £5 millioDS, of which some 
 considerable portion will be of Austrian or at least Hungarian 
 growth. British India stands next, with not far from £5 
 millions, having always largely supplied us with rice, and 
 thanks to railways and irrigation she is now becoming a 
 considerable exporter of wheat. Our own North American 
 province stands for nearly £3 millions ; Germany for almost 
 as much ; whilst Sweden contributes rather more, and 
 Australia rather less, than £2 millions each. 
 
 Our next class is that of sugar, fruit, and other vegetable 
 productions not being either cereal or for use as beverages. 
 To this the AVest Indies, our own colonies, in the proportion 
 of about two-thii'ds, contribute nearly £7 millions, the pro- 
 duce of their cane-fields. France more than £4 millions, the 
 outcome of her State-subsidized manufacture, to which also 
 Germany, Holland, and Belgium largely owe their ability to 
 find purchasers with us to the extent together of £5 i; millions. 
 The contributions of Spain, Greece, and Turkey to that class 
 consist mainly of dried fruits. And it must not be forgotten 
 that considerable supplies of sugar come from our own Eastern 
 possessions, as well as those of Java and the Philippines and 
 even China, as well as from the ancient settlements on the 
 continent of South America. 
 
 Of beverages containing alcohol there are but three chief 
 producing countries, and France yields one-half the whole 
 supply, namely, £5^ out of £1 2 millions, rather more than 
 half being wine, the remainder, with the exception of a few 
 liqueurs, brandy. Spain contributes £ 2 in wine, and Portugal 
 rather more than half as much in the same ; Germany and 
 Holland together £i million in Geneva and potato spirit; 
 the West Indies, principally our own, £i million in rum. 
 
 Of other substances for producing beverages, China sent 
 £10 millions in tea, of which one-fifth is again exported; 
 India £24- millions in the same, and more than as much in 
 cofiee from Ceylon, in all nearly £7 millions. Central and 
 South America £ I ^ millions ; and the West Indies £ I million
 
 OUR FOREIGN FOOD SUPPLIES. Ill 
 
 in coffee and cocoa, the larger proportion of these articles 
 being again exported, principally to the Continent. 
 
 Comparison of Foreign vnth Home Supplies. 
 
 The most obvious impression on perusing these details is 
 one of surprise at the extent to which the wants of the 
 country are supplied from abroad, and the ease with which 
 the provision is made; not unmixed with a measure of 
 anxiety at the dependence in which it places us upon other 
 countries, and the inconveniences which might ensue upon 
 interference with peaceful relations or other national dis- 
 turbances. Nor is the force of this impression lessened by 
 a comparison of the quantities produced at homo with those 
 received from abroad, as seen in the table of the quantities of 
 home-raised wheat and meat, compared with foreign impor- 
 tations, also contained in the former paper (p. 91), 
 
 [The conclusions thus forced upon us would seem to be 
 that of substantial food the proportion drawn from abroad is at 
 least two-fifths of the whole; that the actual consumption is 
 in value about equal ; or by a computation based upon 
 the flesh-forming constituents of the quantities imported, 
 some fifteen millions out of the thirty-three inhabiting the 
 United Kingdom are sustained upon foreign supplies.] 
 Since, therefore, we are making no material progress in 
 extracting more food from our own soil, and the population 
 goes on to increase ; could anything happen to deprive us of 
 access to our neighbours^ stores, more than half of our popu- 
 lation would be destitute of food. The bare possibility of 
 such a catastrophe need not, in the face of its extreme 
 improbability, excite more alarm than the apprehension that 
 our coal-fields are on the verge of exhaustion ; for if, on the 
 one hand, our demands are enormous, on the other, the 
 sources from whence they can be met are practically bound- 
 less. Although at present the Eastern Hemisphere yields 
 the larger proportion of both animal and cereal produce, two- 
 thirds of our vegetables, nearly all our alcoholic and other
 
 112 
 
 THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF 
 
 beverages, the Western is pressing forward in the race for 
 custom. Were the Northern Latitudes to fail in their accus- 
 tomed tribute to our necessities, the Southern woukl soon 
 step forward to meet our wants. Whilst, should the old 
 countries lose their power or their will to fill our storehouses, 
 the new ones would not be long in laying their treasures at 
 our feet. Our insular position has facilitated approach to 
 our shores from every quarter of the globe, and hitherto 
 our wealth and our enterprise have drawn to us sufficient for 
 every need. 
 
 With all this, however, there are not wanting signs that 
 times of distress may be at hand, and it is too evident that 
 we are already in the vortex of a severe crisis. It is on our 
 trade in times past that we have had to rely for progress, 
 and whatever grounds there may be for confidence in the 
 future, it is clear that at present this is far from being as 
 productive as it has been. A reference again to the official 
 returns from which the figures already used have been 
 compiled, will enable us to see to what extent the countries 
 from whom we buy so largely are taking from us in 
 exchange. The ten previously stated as standing highest 
 on the list thus show the values of British produce and 
 manufacture which we exported to them during the last 
 year : — 
 
 [000,000's omitted.] 
 
 United States £l6 
 
 France 14 
 
 British India 29 
 
 China and Hong Kong 8 
 
 Germany 20 
 
 West Indies £6 
 
 Holland 10 
 
 Russia 4 
 
 Turkey 6 
 
 British Xorth America... 7 
 
 These together amount to 120 millions, or 4 millions 
 less than the food we take from them, to say nothing of 
 all the raw material and manufactured articles we also pur- 
 chase. 
 
 Coupling this with the great difference in the total 
 values of the food iuiports for the two years compared on a 
 former page, viz., 1857, £64, and 1877, £177 millions (which
 
 OUR FOREIGN FOOD SUPFLIES. 113 
 
 periods most fairly compare with each other from the 
 similarity in the price of wheat ruling in those years), the 
 whole situation is one of extreme gravity, and well worthy 
 of the closest consideration. It is quite evident that there 
 is no lack either in the will or the power of other nations to 
 produce all the food we may need for the support of our 
 population, and equally so that we have both the means and 
 the desire to manufacture more than sufficient goods where- 
 with to make payment for the supplies they send ; but this 
 ever-increasing divergence between the amount of our pur- 
 chases and our sales cannot continue growing to an indefi- 
 nite extent. Whatever may be our accumulations of wealth 
 at home, they will not suffice to ward off a scarcity of food, 
 if those who have it to give us will not take the produce of 
 our labour and capital in exchange ; and viewed in this aspect 
 the problem seems difficult of solution. True wisdom 
 points, therefore, to economy in the use of food, especially 
 in cutting off such articles of consumption as are not really 
 of any use in sustaining life ; in endeavouring still further to 
 cheapen the goods we manufacture for sale, so as to induce 
 customers to come to us ; and beyond this in seeking to 
 open up new markets in which we may find purchasers on 
 more profitable terms than the old ones are disposed to 
 accord. AVhatever wealth we may derive from our invest- 
 ments or our earnings abroad, it cannot be a satisfactory 
 state of things that all the exertions of our labourers, all the 
 skill and capital of our manufacturers, all the enterprise of 
 our traders, fail to provide the food they consume ; not 
 because we are slackening in our efforts, but because our 
 customers cease to require what we are willing to sell them, 
 or to give us such prices as will prevent the necessity for 
 our drawing upon other resources.
 
 VI. 
 
 On the Growth op Population with Relation to the 
 Means of Subsistence.^ 
 
 FROM the time when Malthus propounded his theories 
 on population, the minds of many have been con- 
 cerned with the question whether such a growth as he 
 deprecated is not indeed an evil to be warred against. 
 These theories appear to have been — 
 
 1. That growth of population must follow or be regulated 
 by the means of sustenance. 
 
 2. That the tendency of population was to increase in 
 geometrical, that of subsistence in arithmetical, progression, 
 and therefore that without some corrective the one must of 
 necessity outstrip the other, and the world become unable 
 to support the lives thus produced. 
 
 o. That this correction was found in the natural or un- 
 natural occurrence of famine, pestilence, and war, at the 
 cost of much misery, which it would be wise to prevent by 
 restraining the natural increase of population through the 
 avoidance of early marriages. 
 
 In later times our sense of decency has been shocked by 
 the outspoken denunciation, not of marriage, but of its 
 consequences ; and the bold inculcation of means whereby 
 the gratification of natural inclinations may be conjoined 
 with the violation of nature's laws and the frustration of 
 nature's ends. Upon the consideration of such a question 
 
 ^ Eead iu Section F, British Association, at Plymouth, 1877.
 
 GIJOWTII OF POPULATION. 115 
 
 it would be manifestly improper to enter here. It", indeed, 
 any place or time be fitted for such discussion, it nmst be 
 some other than this one. But whatever opinion may exist 
 as to the means thus proposed for our adoption, it is a 
 thoroughly legitimate subject for inquiry, whether the 
 growth of population is, as these philosophers (?) assume, an 
 evil to be averted ; or, as others assert, a burden to be 
 borne ; or, as many believe, a source of wealth to be prized. 
 
 Again, looking at the trepidation which Malthus felt at 
 the misery certain to follow upon any largo accession to the 
 seven millions of inhabitants which England then supported, 
 and comparing the condition in which it now holds and 
 maintains more than throe times that number, we may smile 
 at the folly of his forebodings. Yet the question is still an 
 open one, whether the limits of sustenance may not have 
 boon reached, and the time have arrived when to follow his 
 counsels would be true wisdom. It is a desire to see what 
 light can be thrown upon these two subjects for investigation, 
 that has suggested the attempt made in this paper to ascer- 
 tain how the various sections of our population are distributed 
 as to occupations, and tlie proportions engaged respectively 
 in providing food, other necessaries, and luxuries. 
 
 Taking as a basis in our inquiry the Census Reports for 
 the year 1871, we shall find the population for the three 
 divisions of the United Kingdom thus stated : 
 
 England and Wales . . . 22,712,206 
 
 Scotland 3,300,018 
 
 Ireland 5,412,377 
 
 31,1.81.,001 
 
 Since that date it is estimated to have increased by 
 1,001',570, so that at present it amounts to slightly more 
 than 33 millions. But as there are no means of distributing 
 these additional inhabitants amongst the several occupations, 
 it will be necessary to cunliuo our attention to the figures
 
 116 
 
 ON THE GROWTH OF POPULATION WITH 
 
 furnislied for tho census year. These are divided by the 
 llegistrars-Gcneral into six classes, in this order : 
 
 i. 
 
 Professional . 
 
 891,160 
 
 ii. 
 
 Domestic 
 
 . 6,804,769 
 
 iii. 
 
 Gommercial . 
 
 1,035,737 
 
 iv. 
 
 Agricultural 
 
 2,989,154 
 
 V. 
 
 Industrial 
 
 . 6,425,137 
 
 vi. 
 
 Indefinite 
 
 . 13,338,704 
 
 
 31,484,661 
 
 The individuals composing these classes are alike in one 
 respect — that they are all consumers, and need to be pro- 
 vided -with the means of subsistence. They difier, how- 
 ever, greatly in another — in that only a portion are pro- 
 ducers, and on the productive power of this portion must 
 the whole rest for support. It is impossible minutely to 
 separate the one from the other ; but we cannot greatly err 
 in adopting the above division into classes, and for the 
 present purpose may include the third, fourth, and fifth as 
 the productive, and the remaining three — the first, second, 
 and sixth — as those whose labour does not actually con- 
 tribute to the supply on which they, in common with the 
 producers, depend for sustenance. This, in a sense, the 
 commercial class does. Strictly speaking, the merchant 
 may be no more essential to the welfare of the community 
 than the schoolmaster ; but the one assists in procuring the 
 means whereby life is supported, whilst the other, in this 
 respect, does but consume a portion of that on which 
 existence depends. Thus, separating the population into 
 two divisions, we shall have — 
 
 Producers . 
 Non- producers 
 
 10,450,028 
 21,034,633 
 
 31,484,661
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 117 
 
 The latter being very nearly double the former. Further 
 dividing the class of producers, we find those engaged in 
 agricultural operations to be 2,980,154, and the industrial 
 and commercial together 7,460,874 ; in round numbers 
 three, and seven and a half millions respectively. 
 
 I. The agricultural class embraces those engaged in 
 the cultivation of the soil, whether " in fields and pastures, 
 1,447,481 ; " '' in woods, 7,861 ; " or '' in gardens, 103,695,^' 
 including not alone the actual agricultural labourers, shep- 
 herds, farm servants, and gardeners, but all those returned 
 simply as landed proprietors; all farmers, graziers, bailiffs, 
 agents, and others whose sole or principal employment is 
 upon or about the land. It further comprises all persons 
 engaged about animals, such as horse-keepers, game- 
 keepers, drovers, cattle- salesmen, fishermen, and others, 
 the business of all of whom is the capturing, rearing, and 
 dealing in beasts, birds, and fishes; the whole class thus 
 comprehending all whose manual or mental labour, whose 
 time, thought, and capital, are devoted to calling into 
 existence and utilizing the various products of animal and 
 vegetable life. It is obvious, however, that not all of these 
 are engaged solely in the production of human food, which 
 numbers, for our present purpose, it is important to ascer- 
 tain. The value of the wool and flax grown at home has 
 been estimated at 6 per cent, of the whole produce, that of 
 the oats at 13 per cent., of the barley at 1 1 per cent., of tho 
 peas, beans, and rye at 4 per cent. ; in all, 33 per cent. 
 The corn and hay for the support of horses not employed 
 in farming operations is of considerable value, whilst a large 
 number of woodmen and gardeners, grooms and game- 
 keepers, are solely engaged in ministering, not to sub- 
 sistence, but to enjoyment, or in other useful operations. 
 To discover the exact proportion thus employed would bo 
 difficult; but it cannot be deemed an undue estimate if we 
 say that one-fourth at least must devote their labours to 
 other objects than tho raising of food. If we make a 
 deduction to this extent, it follows that two and a quarter
 
 118 ON THE GROWTH OF POPULATION WITH 
 
 ■millions of the population arc sufficient to produce all the 
 home-grown food. This is estimated at about three-fifths 
 of the whole consumption of the kingdom, the remainder 
 Ijoing derived from foreign supplies, received in exchange 
 for the produce of our mines and manufactories. Assuming, 
 as may faii-ly be done, that each individual employed in 
 manufacturing operations will produce goods for export 
 equivalent at least to the food which he could raise directly 
 from the soil, we arrive at the conclusion that two-thirds 
 of two and a quarter millions, say one and a half million, 
 should be deducted from the industrial and added to the 
 food-producing class, and thus that three and three-quarter 
 millions are actually engaged in producing or procuring 
 food for all the inhabitants of the United Kingdom. 
 
 But we must go a step further. There are other things 
 which are absolutely essential for those who thus labour : 
 houses to live in, clothing to wear, and several minor articles 
 of food, over and above that which is raised at home. To 
 provide these, some of our mechanics and operatives must 
 devote their time either directly to their production, or in- 
 directly to producing that which will procure them from 
 abroad. For reasons which will be better explained when 
 speaking of the industrial class, the number thus employed 
 may be computed at half a million of workers. The result 
 of these calculations may thus be stated in round numbers : 
 
 Census return of agricultural class . . 3,000,000 
 
 Less ^, producing hay, wool, flax, hides, oils, 
 
 &c 750,000 
 
 2,250,000 
 1,500,000 
 
 Add, manufacturers of goods to be ex-| 
 changed for food . . . | 
 
 Ditto, of necessaries for food-producers . 600,000 
 
 Giving a grand total of . 4,250,000 
 
 whose labour in one shape or another sufficed to maintain
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 119 
 
 in food the 31,500^000 ascertained inhabitants of the king- 
 dom in 1871. 
 
 II. The industrial class, nuiiiLcring six and a quarter 
 millions, includes all persons engaged in art and mechanic 
 ]n-oduction, and those working and dealing in textile fabrics 
 and dress, in foods and drinks, and in animal, vegetable, 
 and mineral substances. To these we may, as before stated, 
 add the commercial class, one million; not that thoj ai-e actual 
 producers, but because their employment is necessary for 
 the distribution and exchange of that which others produce, 
 and which without such assistance could not be utilized. 
 To these seven and a quarter millions we must add the 
 three-quarters of a million of the agricultural class, whom 
 we considered as employed in producing other articles than 
 food, but deduct the one and a half million the product of 
 Avhose labour we reckoned as applied to the purchase of 
 food imported from other countries ; leaving six and three- 
 (|uarter millions of workers engaged in producing, for the 
 benefit of the whole population, substances not to be con- 
 sumed as food. In like manner, however, as wo added to 
 the food-producers half a million for those providing articles 
 necessary to their existence, so must we deduct this Haifa 
 million from the industrial producers, together with, say, 
 three-quarters of a million similarly employed upon neces- 
 saries for these workers themselves. 
 
 These two numbers, thus transferred as necessary for the 
 workers, are to a certain extent conjectural, yet not alto- 
 gether arbitrary. A close examination of the sub-orders 
 and divisions of the Census Return under the various occu- 
 pations of the industrial class leads to the conclusion that, 
 after making the deduction for goods manufactured to be 
 exchanged for food imports, one-half of the workci's may bo 
 assigned to the production of articles of necessity, and as this 
 would give some three or three and a half millions, the pro- 
 portion for the consumption of the workers thomsclvos 
 would be about a quarter of a million for the agricultural 
 and threc-cjuarters of a million fur the industrial. Tims wo
 
 120 ON THE GROWTH OF TOPULATION WITH 
 
 get five and a half millions, the products of whose labour 
 supply themselves with food and necessaries, and the rest of 
 the community with everything it uses, beyond the absolute 
 food on which it subsists. 
 
 Assuming that the necessary supplies for the wants of 
 the non-productive population (including most of the women 
 and all the children) will absorb the labour of two and a half 
 millions more, we shall have left some three millions for the 
 production of luxuries or superfluities, and the accumulation 
 of wealth ; nearly one-third of the total workers. 
 
 These calculations may be tabulated in round numbers 
 thus : 
 
 Census return of industrial and commercial . 7,500,000 
 Add \ of agricultural class who do not produce 
 
 food 750,000 
 
 Deduct — 8,250,060 
 
 Producers of foreign food . 1,500,000] 
 
 „ necessaries for pro- [ 2,000,000 
 
 ducers . . 500,OOoJ 
 
 ■ 6,250,000 
 necessaries for industrial workers 750,000 
 
 Leaving . . 5,500,000 
 Assumed to be employed in manufacturing ne- 
 cessaries 2,500,000 
 
 Leaving for the production of superfluities . 3,000,000 
 
 The powers of the whole population will thus be ex- 
 pended :
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 121 
 
 In tlie production of food .... 4,250,000 
 „ „ other necessaries . . 3,250,000 
 
 ,, „ superfluities . . . 3,000,000 
 
 10,500,000 
 Consumers only 21,000,000 
 
 31,500,000 
 
 Although resting upon a sound basis, as regards the num- 
 bers employed and the class of occupation, these calculations 
 can only claim a presumptive accuracy as to the purposes 
 which such employment serves. There is not much reason 
 to question the proportion of the nation^s power assigned 
 to the production of food; but opinions may differ as to 
 how much is required for the supply of its necessities, and 
 the degree in which the product of the remainder is to be 
 considered essential to comfort and happiness, or to be 
 looked upon as unnecessary or even hurtful. It is not, 
 however, requisite that there should be precise agreement 
 on these points. Let it bo granted that, after providing 
 the means of subsistence (whatever that may be deemed to 
 include), there is any surplus at all, the national welfare 
 cannot really be imperilled by its existence. That such is 
 the case needs no proof. The rapid growth of its wealth, 
 the luxurious living of so many of its members, and the 
 ability of so many to exist and spend without any labour, 
 all prove that the means of subsistence have hitherto kept 
 ahead of the increase of the population. 
 
 III. Another line of argument, founded also upon the 
 Census Returns, will lead up to the same conclusion. 
 Dividing the whole population, as ascertained in 1871, 
 according to sex and age, we find that there were 15,301,830 
 males and 16,182,831 females; viz.:
 
 122 ON THE TiKOWTII OF POPULATION WITH 
 
 Males. Females. Both Sexes. 
 
 Under 15 years . 5,706,589 5,383,083 11,090,272 
 
 Over 65 „ . . 721,997 501,306 1,223,303 
 Wives and Women] 
 
 performing house- ...... 5,058,298 5,058,298 
 
 hold duties . i 
 
 6,428,586 10,943,287 17,371,873 
 Between 15 and 65, | 
 
 excluding house- 8,873,244 5,239,544 14,112,788 
 hold women . / 
 
 15,301,830 16,182,831 31,484,661 
 
 In making this division, it is assumed that the working 
 period of life is between 15 and 65, whilst all under and 
 over those ages are unable to labour for their own support 
 or that of others. It is true that many children below 15, 
 and aged persons beyond 65, do in part earn the means of 
 subsistence ; but there is probably an equivalent number 
 between 15 and 65 who do not actually work, and thus one 
 may be set against the other. Married women, too, and 
 those engaged in household duties, although in some in- 
 stances assisting as bread-winners, must, generally speaking, 
 be excluded from the class of productive workers. These 
 together amount in round numbers to 17i: millions, leaving 
 14 millions of an age and position to be profitably employed. 
 So far, however, as being actually productive members of 
 the community, we must except the professional class and 
 those engaged in domestic service, together numbering 
 3^ millions. Deducting these from the 14 millions at the 
 working age, we have lO^j^ millions to perform the various 
 agricultural and industrial operations on which the nation 
 depends for its sustenance (necessary and superfluous) and 
 its growth in wealth. By the former separation into pro- 
 ductive occupations, we found that 10|: millions were so 
 classed — a number so singularly near to the lO^f millions
 
 KELATIOX TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 123 
 
 arrived at by the division into ages, as to confirm the 
 accuracy of the reasoning by which we arrive at the follow- 
 ing results ; viz. : 
 
 1. That one-third of the population is capable of labour- 
 ing, and actually does labour for its own support, and that of 
 the remaining two-thirds which are dependent upon it. 
 
 2. That of the productive portion of the community 
 about 40 per cent, are either directly or indirectly engaged 
 in the production of food, from 25 to 30 per cent, in that of 
 other necessaries, leaving 30 to 35 per cent, free for those 
 occupations which furnish us with luxuries for consump- 
 tion, or wealth for accumulation. 
 
 3. That therefore the growth of population in this country 
 has not hitherto unduly pressed upon or overtaken the means 
 of subsistence. 
 
 IV. If then, as these two sets of figures seem conclu- 
 sively to show, one worker, besides procuring food and 
 necessaries for his own support, can and does produce the 
 food which nourishes six or seven others (4^: to 3 li millions), 
 whilst there are on the average no more than one adult and 
 one child dependent upon each producing member of the com- 
 munity (IO4.- to 10^^ over, and 11 under 15 years), there can 
 be no doubt whatever that the power employed in raising 
 the means of subsistence is far below what might be made 
 available should more be required. If again the strength 
 of the nation can, after allowing for the employment of 
 nearly one-half of its producing power (5 out of 101- rnil- 
 lions) in labour for their own necessities and the food of 
 others, have more than the other half (5^ millions) left to 
 supply the remaining wants of the other 21 millions, and 
 the further desires of the whole 311 millions, there can be 
 no true reason why the growth of the population needs to 
 be restrained. Neither is there any room to fear that such 
 a ratio of increase as the present progress furnishes can do 
 other than add to the productive power of the nation. If 
 such restriction be advocated, let it bo honestly done 
 with the object of confining the use of the nation's wealth
 
 124 ON THE GROWTH OF TOPULATION WITH 
 
 in unduo proportion to a part of the community, or of sub- 
 stituting luxurious self-indulgence for the natural use of our 
 powers and privileges. 
 
 The numbers and the conditions of existence with which 
 wo arc now dealing are those of the present time, when it 
 is admitted that much room exists for sanitary, hygienic, 
 and moral improvement, the beginnings, or rather some 
 advance in which we already witness. From such improve- 
 ment there would certainly result a strengthening of our 
 position. Disease lessens the power of those who live, and 
 premature death destroys the power which has cost much 
 to rear. The children under fifteen years of age are rather 
 more in number than the productive workers, and reckon- 
 ing the average consumption of each as equal to half that 
 of an adult, they must absorb one-sixth of the food and 
 necessaries produced by the workers. This they more than 
 repay during mature years. If, however, life is cut short 
 before maturity, every year that it has lasted has been a tax 
 upon the means of subsistence, for which there is no recom- 
 pense. Infant mortality is confessedly higher than it ought 
 to be. Every life which knowledge or care can rescue is 
 an addition to future producing power, and so to the surplus 
 which makes the nation's wealth. Still more is this the 
 case with improved health amongst producers, because to 
 the extent which disease exists it not only destroys power 
 in the sufferer himself, but draws upon the resources of 
 those whose own power is thus directed to unproductive 
 uses. It is not too much to hope that an improvement 
 in this respect is taking place, by which a considerable gain 
 may ensue, the whole of which will be that of surplus power. 
 
 Beyond this, the constant increase of mechanical power, 
 and of economy in its uses, largely adds to the producing 
 capacity of those who call it to their aid. Whatever is 
 thus applied to the actual forcing of a greater yield from 
 the soil, or to the manufacture of the necessaries for home 
 use, must be a clear gain ; but so much as increases the 
 product of manufactures for exchange vrith other nations
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 125 
 
 may not really be any gain^ if thereby, through competition 
 or other causes, the value of the articles produced sustains 
 an equivalent diminution. To make this plain, the reap- 
 ing-machine will set free so many reapers to reclaim and 
 plant other land, but an improved steam-engine may only 
 increase the produce of the loom without ensuring its value 
 in exchange for food being any greater. The whole 
 tendency, however, of growing intelligence, knowledge, 
 and wealth, is to render the employment of power more 
 ])roductive, and thus to increase the available surplus. If 
 therefore there be any surplus at all at present, and wo 
 have seen that there is a considerable one, increase of 
 population should cause it to become still greater. 
 
 V. Two objections, however, may arise, which it is im- 
 portant to meet. It may be asserted that there must be a 
 limit to the numbers which our country can hold and main- 
 tain, and that the time when this limitation makes itself felt 
 has arrived, or is soon to come. Again, many will main- 
 tain that we have even now no true surplus of productive 
 power, because the producers and their dependents are 
 both straitened in their consumption, and overstrained by 
 the amount of labour which is necessary to procure even 
 that they have, whilst a proper supply of necessaries and a 
 just limitation of labour would consume or lessen the surplus 
 now produced. 
 
 To deal first with this latter argument in both its 
 branches. If we look at the so-called working classes, it 
 is impossible not to see that in both the quality and quantity 
 of food they consume, in the sufficiency and finery of the 
 clothes they wear, and in the comfort and size of the houses 
 they inhabit, they are better off at this time than at any 
 previous period. There may bo much of squalid poverty, 
 many ill-filled stomachs and ill-clad backs, uncomfortable 
 houses and miserable homes j but there is still more of 
 lavish expenditure in drink and tobacco, of wasted food and 
 unsuitable clothing, of ill-kept habitations and mismanaged 
 homes. The relief from want is to be obtained by the
 
 126 ON THE GEOWTII OF POPULATION WITH 
 
 repression of extravagances, and comfort is to be procured 
 by the economic use of time and money ; for there can be 
 little doubt that the wages earned, if properly employed 
 and fairly distributed, are amply sufficient to purchase food 
 and necessaries for a larger population than they now. sup- 
 port. With the middle class the strain and privation, not 
 perhaps of the absolute necessaries, but in those which habit 
 and education have made such, is probably much greater than 
 in the lower strata. There is more difficulty in finding profit- 
 able employment for sons, and fitting homes for daughters; 
 but here, too, the cause is to be found in the improvident 
 expenditure of money and time, ill-regulated desires and 
 undue aspirations; not indeed here or in the lower classes 
 always on the part of those who suffer, for the misery- 
 maker is too often not the one who endures the sufiering. 
 With the higher classes there can be no question as to the 
 actual means of subsistence or of comfortable existence ; it 
 is one of maintaining their present position, or of failure in 
 attaining a higher one, should the numbers amongst whom 
 existing or prospective means are to be divided greatly 
 increase. Looking to the rapid growth and concentration 
 of wealth on the one hand, and the equally rapid increase 
 of luxurious expenditure on the other, it cannot be for a 
 moment maintained that, even supposing this accession of 
 means not to keep pace as it has hitherto done with the 
 growth of population, there is not ample for division 
 amongst greater numbers. Besides this there seems to be 
 some natural cause or effect whereby the accretion, posses- 
 sion, or expenditure of wealth is generally attended with a 
 stationary or decreasing family. 
 
 As regards the supposed undue amount of labour exacted 
 froro those who produce for themselves or work for others, 
 almost the same course of reasoning may be pursued. It 
 is not that the aggregate amount of exertion is more than 
 the whole body can well put forth, it is the unequal distri- 
 bution among its various members. There is scarcely a 
 family or neighbourhood — certainly not a town or county —
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 127 
 
 in "wliicli we do not see quite sufficient available power for 
 the relief of those who are unduly pressed. The time which 
 is devoted to pleasure, or spent in frivolity and idleness, 
 and the strength which is wasted unnecessarily or exhausted 
 by dissipation, is amply sufficient for lessening the strain 
 put upon the overworked members of the community ; nay 
 more, it needs no argument, for it is self-evident to the most 
 ordinary observer, that a just appropriation of time and a wise 
 administration of power would produce far more than at 
 present without at all limiting the hours which may rightly 
 be devoted to rest, improvement, and enjoyment. Excepting 
 for our follies and our pleasures, it cannot be said that as a 
 nation we are on the whole overworked, or that we need to 
 restrict the total time devoted to labour. 
 
 But granting, for argument's sake, that these e\dls do 
 exist, are they to be removed or lessened by restraint upon 
 marriage or increase ? Is the disease one which may be 
 cured by the prescriptions of cither Malthus or Bradlaugh ? 
 Do we find that deferred matrimon}" or life-long celibacy 
 really add to the productive power which the abstainers put 
 forth ? Is it not a fact, that as a rule the larger families 
 thrive the best, and that a large number of those who have 
 none dependent upon them, themselves become dependent 
 upon others ? Let a young man feel that he has no homo 
 to make or to keep, and he too often loses the stimulus to 
 putting forth his productive power, and fails to preserve it 
 by healthy exercise. He is tempted to expend his earnings 
 in unprofitable or hurtful enjoyments, if even he does not 
 exhaust his energies by dissipation and self-indulgence. 
 Let a young woman feel that she is debarred from having 
 a home of her own wnth those for whom she may expend 
 her powers and cultivate the best feelings of her nature, 
 and let her know that, instead of being provided for by the 
 husband or sous on whom she may lavish her affections 
 and her care, she must earn her own livelihood ; and she is 
 too often forced into uncongenial pursuits and exhausting 
 labours, which go far to depress her vital powers, and ulli-
 
 128 ON THE GROWTH OF TOrULATION WITH 
 
 raately extinguish her capacity, not so much for being her- 
 self a producer as a real helper to those who are such. 
 When, on the contrary, the young of both sexes feel that 
 they may possess a united homo, in which the obligations 
 of parental love may be an incentive to the preservation 
 and development of their powers ; they are supplied with 
 the strongest inducement to the right use of the health and 
 strength which makes them an addition to the nation's pro- 
 ductiveness. There is nothing in this to enforce matri- 
 mony and its consequent multiplication of life upon those 
 who are unfitted or unwilling to enter upon it, nor yet to 
 encourage premature, imprudent, or ill-assorted unions ; on 
 the contrary, the steady contemplation of the married state 
 as a legitimate object to be attained, will be the best 
 encouragement to prudent preparation. A knowledge of 
 the duties it entails, and the noble self-sacrifice it requires, 
 will be the most effectual restraint upon those to whom it 
 has no attractions ; whilst those who realize the fulfilment 
 of their desires will be far more likely to have healthy off- 
 spring, and in adding to the numbers of the population 
 to give those who will be an increase of its productive 
 powers. 
 
 VI. Thus far it has been assumed that an increase of 
 productive power is a source of strength and prosperity ; 
 but here the former of the two objections which were sug- 
 gested requires to be met, and we need to be satisfied that 
 with possession of increased power we have a sufficient field 
 for its employment. 
 
 Mai thus thought, that the prudential limit of population 
 for our island was nearly reached, and trembled for the 
 time when the world might have more inhabitants than it 
 could possibly feed. The only possible justification for 
 Bradlaugh's philosophy is, that we are already full enough, 
 and that an addition to our numbers can but add to our 
 misery. 
 
 Political economists, social reformers, and practical 
 philanthropists of the highest stamp have thought that the
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 129 
 
 growth of population i:i unduly pressing upon the nation's 
 means, and there can be no doubt that the problem is one 
 of somewhat difficult solution. For a series of years the 
 national expenditure for food has gone on increasing simul- 
 taneously with a diminishing receipt from the sale of the 
 manufactures which our producing power enables us to send 
 to the countries with which we trade. 
 
 Since 1872 each year has been worse in this respect than 
 its predecessor, and the present year promises to be the 
 worst of all that have yet passed. Every succeeding year 
 the home resources afford a less amount of food per head of 
 its population, and every year the money value of our 
 exports is also less per head. There are those amongst us, 
 whose judgment is entitled to respect, who view this state 
 of things without anxiety, believing cither that the growth 
 of our income abroad advances at least in proportion to our 
 draughts upon it ; or that the present depression of trade 
 is but temporary, and will soon give place to returning 
 prosperity. There are some too who really believe that, 
 despite all adverse tokens, the profits in our manufacturing 
 and trading operations are really greater, and so compen- 
 sate for the larger supplies we draw from abroad. With 
 the soundness or fallacy of these different views it is not the 
 business of this paper to deal ; but we have to consider 
 what bearing these circumstances have upon the continued 
 increase of the mouths we have to fill, the wants we have 
 to supply. 
 
 Let it be granted again, that there is a real evil to be 
 overcome, what does it mean ? that we must interfere with 
 nature's laws, or natural results ? or that we must learn the 
 lessons those results are designed to teach ; that we must 
 obey the other laws which nature enacts ? Is it impossible 
 to bring increased supplies to our people ? And if it be so, is 
 it out of our power to carry our ])eople where they may find 
 scope for the employment of their productive power, in 
 making pi'O vision for their wants, and securing possession 
 of comforts and luxuries ? 
 
 K
 
 130 ON THE GKOWTII OF POPULATION WITH 
 
 When Abraham and Lot found the land too small to 
 pasture their flocks, they agreed to extend the borders they 
 occupied. When Solomon wanted the wood of Lebanon, 
 and the gold of Ophir, he exchanged the surplus products 
 of his own land for those of others. We in times past have 
 done both, and we must still do both in larger degree ; for 
 we have this advantage, that the two go hand in hand — ■ 
 the one helps the other, and thus lessens the strain on both. 
 Every family which goes forth to cultivate an unoccupied 
 space, to render the earth productive where it has never 
 hitherto yielded fruits, or to make two blades grow where 
 only one grew before, furnishes additional customers for our 
 industrial class at home, and enables our land in comfort to 
 hold increasing numbers. 
 
 It is probable that there never was a time when coloni- 
 zation was so easy as it might be now. We have capitalists 
 who can prevent our emigrants going out empty-handed, 
 and can prepare the way for them with the certainty that 
 the investment will pay. We have ships that can carry 
 them with speed, safety, and economy. We have broad 
 acres under our own sovereign's sway where we may plant 
 or consolidate our laws, our customs, our principles of 
 justice and religion ; or we have peaceful relations with 
 other nations who will only be too glad to receive our 
 people. We have scientific means for lessening the hard- 
 ships incident to a new life, and we have still brave hearts 
 and true to go up and possess the lands. We have, then, 
 mechanical skill, industrious workers, rich capitalists and 
 manufacturers at home to receive the products of industry 
 abroad, to cheaply convert them into articles of utility and 
 luxury, to speedily return them in their useful forms to those 
 who have raised the raw materials ; and we have facility of 
 intercourse to prevent the entire rupture of family ties, to 
 cement old friendships, and to create new tastes and incli- 
 nations in those who are in reality less separated in time 
 and distance than were our forefathers when actually within 
 the borders of om* own little island.
 
 RELATION TO THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE. 131 
 
 Again, colonization in the present day may be different 
 in its character from that of previous times. We then went 
 forth to conquer, rob, oppress, and exterminate the aboriginal 
 inhabitants of the settlements wo chose. We now go, or 
 ought to go, to them with the open hand of friendship, 
 teach them our laws, instruct their ignorance, help their 
 weakness, carry to them the blessings of civilization and 
 Christianity, and thus make them at once our friends and 
 onr customers. 
 
 In all these several ways a small exodus from home may 
 serve to restore the balance and to furnish the means of 
 subsistence for the many who remain behind. By so doing 
 a redundancy of population will become the means of pro- 
 ducing redundant food, health, happiness, and wealth. 
 
 VII. Away then with the false economy and cold expe- 
 diency which would stifle all the finer feelings of our nature, 
 cramp all the expansive powers of our minds, rob us of all 
 the warmer desires of our hearts, which would check the 
 progress of the world in all that can constitute real greatness, 
 by selfishly refusing to convey to the dark regions of the 
 earth the light which art, science, and religion have per- 
 mitted us to enjoy. Away still more with the impure 
 philosophy which would degrade us to mere machines for 
 the gratification of the inclinations given us for wise and 
 noble ends — creatures of the flesh rather thau of the mind 
 and spirit, wallowers in the filth of this world rather than 
 aspirants for the purity of heaven. 
 
 Whether therefore we examine into the present resources 
 and demands of the population, or whether we look to tho 
 economy of the vegetable or the animal world, the experience 
 of human history, the record of human progress, the con- 
 stitution of the human frame, the objects of human existence, 
 or the prospects of our race in tho future of this world and 
 tho eternity of the next, we shall find that the law of in- 
 crease is of natural and divine enactment. Let us honestly 
 strive to discover wherein lies the secret of our strength, 
 the security for our happiness, and we shall realize the con-
 
 132 ON THE GROWTH OF POPULATION. 
 
 viction that it is to be found in fulfilling the terms of the 
 charter whereby wo hold possession of the earth and domi- 
 nance over the lower creatures : " Be fruitful, and multiply, 
 and replenish the earth/^
 
 VII. 
 
 The Duties on Wine. 
 [October, 1877.] 
 
 THERE can be little doubt that it is both expedient and 
 necessary to make some considerable alterations in the 
 existing duties on wines. The Spanish growers, and with 
 them those of Portugal and Australia, complain that their 
 products are unduly weighted in the competition with those 
 of France and the Rhine. The French producers, on the 
 other hand, arc anxious for the introduction of their commoner 
 vintages on such terms as may enable them to appeal to 
 the tastes of those in our country who are now consumers of 
 beer. Again, the distillers complain that the stronger for- 
 tified wines are used for the adulteration of spirits, and like- 
 wise that the alcohol in wine is admitted at so much lower 
 a rate than that contained in spirits proper. These two last 
 considerations are not unworthy of attention in the inte- 
 rests of the revenue. It is broadly asserted that Hamburg 
 sherry enters largely into the composition of the lower 
 kinds of Irish whiskey as sold by the retailers ; and that by 
 a lartre class of customers it is used more as a di-am than a 
 beverage. Thus used, it may extensively supplant both 
 the home and foreign manufactured brandy, gin, and 
 whiskey. 
 
 An examination into the several rates of duty charged 
 upon liquors containing spirit, shows that the alcohol they 
 carry is charged with duty at very difforent rates, — that in
 
 134 THE DUTIES ON WINE. 
 
 beer and ale being the lowest of all. Adopting the Excise 
 estimate that two bushels of malt will make a barrel of or- 
 dinary beer, and assuming that such beer contains from 
 8 to 9 degrees of proof spirit, we have somewhere about 
 three gallons for 5s. 5cZ. duty, equal to about Is. lOcl. per 
 gallon. Next in order come the wines that are admitted as 
 under 26 degrees, but as many of these do not nearly come 
 up to this strength, we may take the average at 22, which 
 at Is. would give 4s. 6d. per gallon. The higher rating at 
 2s. 6cl. up to 42 degrees may probably average 40 degrees, 
 and thus give a charge of Qs. ScZ. per gallon. Lastly come 
 spirits paying, if of home manufacture, 10s,, and if of foreign 
 production, 10s. bd., for each gallon of proof spirit they con- 
 tain. This order of progression is quite sound in principle, 
 but it may be doubted whether the present ratings for wine 
 are altogether the most advisable. Those for beer and 
 spirits are not likely to be altered unless a plethoric state of 
 revenue should permit a response to the appeals of the agri- 
 culturists for a remission of the malt duties ; or a necessity 
 for sustaining the national income, on the one hand, or a 
 desire for the advancement of temperance on the other, 
 should induce an additional charge on spirits. Looking at 
 wine as what it really is, a distinct article from spirits, it is 
 right that those kinds which contain little alcohol should 
 pay a small duty, and that just in proportion as the other 
 descriptions approach to the character of spirits, the alcohol 
 in them should bear a corresponding charge. This object 
 may probably be more fully attained by a rating different to 
 that at present existing. 
 
 It is understood that the Spanish Government desires a 
 substitution of 34 degrees for that of the lower limit of 
 rating at 26, and with this many of the home merchants 
 agree. It would be better that 34 should take the place 
 of the higher limit (that of 42) as the extreme range of 
 strength allowed for wine proper. This proportion of 
 alcohol is quite sufficient for the preservation of any well 
 fermented and pure wine. It is not beyond that which the
 
 THE DUTIES ON WINE. 135 
 
 natural fermentation of a rich juice from the grape will often- 
 times reach. Its adoption would lead to an abandonment of 
 the practice of stopping fermentation by the addition of spirit, 
 and thus tend to produce a sounder, more wholesome, and 
 altogether higher class of wine. 
 
 At the other end of the scale, it would be expedient to 
 admit wines below, say, 16 degrees, at a rate more analogous 
 to that charged upon beer ; thus aftbrding opportunity for 
 testing the taste of those who prefer the weaker beverage, 
 and, even if not availed of, satisfying the claims of the 
 French exporters. 
 
 Although wine may not be charged at the same duty as 
 it would pay if treated as diluted spirit, it should still be 
 dealt with upon an alcoholic basis, both in fairness to the dis- 
 tiller and for the security of the revenue. No rating, either 
 by quantity of liquid or by value, would effect this end, nor 
 would it bo promoted by yielding to the clamour for the 
 admission of all wine, or of that up to 34 degrees, at the 
 uniform duty of Is.; but with due regard to the interests of 
 all parties, — producer, consumer, and Exchequer alike, — 2s. 
 would be a fitting charge for the highest limit, that of 34, 
 and a 6(1. rate for all below 16, with intermediate charges 
 upon those between, say Is. up to 24, Is. 6d. up to 30. In 
 assessing strengths beyond 34, it would then be right to 
 adjust the charge upon the same principle, that of increasing 
 the alcoholic impost with a greater strength, until the spirit 
 duty is reached. This might be done by putting an addi- 
 tional 3r?. upon every two degrees up to 42, which would 
 then pay 3s., and upon every single degree beyond, so that 
 at 50 degrees it would amount to 5s., equivalent to the 10s. 
 on proof spirit at which all beyond 50 would be taken. 
 
 One rather serious objection to these proposals presents 
 itself in the necessity they involve of subjecting, if not all, 
 yet nearly all the importations to the test of strengtli, a 
 process involving some measure of expense and delay. Under 
 the present rating it is only those samples which come near 
 the limits of 20 and 42, and those beyond the latter, which
 
 13G THE DUTIES ON WINE. 
 
 demand more than observation and tasting. When first the 
 duties were levied according to strength there were four 
 distinct rates, 18, 26, 40, and 45 degrees, and some diffi- 
 culties arose in affixing the proper charges, but since then 
 the process of testing is very much simplified. It is now 
 adopted by several wine merchants upon wines in their own 
 cellars merely for their own guidance. It could not be an 
 insuperable obstacle to a method which seems to possess 
 many advantages, and to be based on the only principle 
 which, at the same time dealing fairly with the several sorts, 
 yet serves to protect the spirit duties. 
 
 To obviate the inconvenience attendant upon sampling 
 and testing wines in bottle, it would be well that these 
 should all pay at the same rate, say 2s. This would include 
 the stronger champagnes, some of which there is reason to 
 believe now obtain entrance at Is. duty, although over 26 
 degrees. The higher value of most case wines would enable 
 them to bear the somewhat greater charge, and it might not 
 be inappropriate to extend it even beyond 2s. [The objec- 
 tions raised to this charge as since proposed by Mr. Glad- 
 stone, would be obviated were it left open to the importer 
 to claim the privilege of having his wines tested and rated 
 according to their alcoholic strength. This would prevent 
 an undue charge on those of inferior quality imported in 
 large parcels, whilst for those of higher quality and in 
 smaller quantity, the testing would seldom be claimed.] 
 
 The precise stages at which it is proposed to increase the 
 rate may possibly admit of some adjustment on the experi- 
 ence of the practical officers, and possibly it would not be 
 unacceptable to the trade to have threepenny instead of six- 
 penny rises by introducing the limits of say 21, 28, 32. 
 Should any alteration at all be made it would be but just to 
 admit sweetened spirits, which now pay a fixed duty without 
 reference to strength, to the privilege of being tested in the 
 same manner as wine, and charged as spirits upon the proof 
 quantity they contain. 
 
 There are many objections to the suggested plan for an
 
 THE DUTIES ON WIXE. 137 
 
 ad valorem rating, wlietlior as an alternative charge to that 
 now levied, or as a supplementary one to remedy existing 
 inequalities. The most obvious of these is that it would in- 
 volve a complete reversal of the policy of late years, which 
 has been entirely opposed to any charge depending upon 
 value. Also, that of all the several articles contributing to 
 the revenue, wine is the one whose value it is the most diffi- 
 cult correctly to appraise. The variations in quality are so 
 great, the diversities in taste so delicate, the caprices of 
 fashion and the supplies from special vintages so varying, 
 that the most experienced judges will be sure to differ widely 
 as to the merits of particular importations. There is thus 
 a certainty of such frequent conflicts of opinion between the 
 officers and the importers as to prevent a correct standard 
 of value ever being adopted. 
 
 It would further lie open to the objection that the same 
 method is not applied to other articles, such as tea, where 
 the commonest congou is taxed as highly as the choicest 
 pekoe ; or spirits, where the oldest cognac pays no more 
 than the newest potato spirit. This would inevitably lead 
 to demands from the dealers in those articles for a like con- 
 sideration being given to differences of quality and price in 
 tea, tobacco, spirits, &c. 
 
 But the chief difficulty lies in the absolute cheapness of 
 spirit when coiu pared with wine, which destroys altogether 
 the relation of value to strength. The spirit manufactured 
 in Germany averages on importation here little more than 
 Is. GtZ. per gallon, whilst the value of wine from the same 
 country is nearly 5s. Brandy from France averages 6s. 6d., 
 and wine 8s. per gallon. Thus the addition of alcohol actually 
 renders the mixture of less pecuniary value than before, and 
 the more nearly wine can be made to resemble spirits, the 
 loss would it pay if value, not quantity or strength, were made 
 the basis of ratinir-
 
 VIII. 
 
 Excess op Imports and Depression op Trade. 
 
 [January, 1878.] 
 
 POLITICAL economists are puzzled to reconcile the 
 growing preponderance of imports over exports in the 
 present depressed condition of trade and commerce, with the 
 generally received opinion that a nation^s prosperity may be 
 fairly measured by the excess of value which it obtains in 
 goods received over the value of those with which it parts. It 
 is still true that a nation which barters its produce and 
 manufactures for less value fi-om other countries cannot be 
 prospering, but there are those amongst us who, without 
 reviving the exploded theory that there should be an excess 
 of exports, yet believe that the continuous increase in our 
 imports, combined with a corresponding decrease in our ex- 
 ports, cannot be indicative of satisfactory progress. Hence 
 the discussions in the daily and weekly journals of such 
 questions as, " Ai-e we consuming our capital ? '' " Has 
 England become a spendthrift ? " The immediate occasion 
 of recent attention being given to the subject is to be found 
 in a letter addressed by Mr. Rathbone, M,P., to a journal of 
 high financial repute,* which led to such a demand for 
 copies of the issue in which it was published as to neces- 
 sitate its re-issue as a supplement to the succeeding number. 
 Prior to this, the reading of two papers before the Statistical 
 
 * "Economist," Nov. 24th, and Dec. 7tli, 1877.
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 139 
 
 Societies of London * and Manchester '^ had placed the fiicts 
 of the case as figured in the official returns issued from the 
 Custom House before the public, and laid the basis for 
 argument as to the causes and effects of the condition of 
 affairs thus disclosed. The progress of these since then has 
 not been in any way such as to lessen anxiety, or to render 
 further investigation unnecessary. The case for inquiry 
 may be thus stated. 
 
 For a long series of years, with but little more than an 
 occasional trifling fluctuation, the growth of our trade, both 
 inwards and outwards, has been largely and steadily in- 
 creasing. Going back to the earliest year in which the official 
 records were compiled upon such a system as to admit of 
 fair comparison, we find that the value of the imjDorts has 
 risen from £153,000,000 in 1854 to £354,000,000 in 1872; 
 or, deducting those articles exported to other countries 
 (£19,000,000 and £58,000,000 respectively), there were 
 retained for home use, £134,000,000 in the former, and 
 £290,000,000 in the latter year, showing an increase of 121 
 per cent. Taking the same period, the exports were, in 
 1854, £110,000,000, in 1872, £315,000,000, which, again 
 deducting the values of foreign goods as above, gives 
 £97,000,000 in the former year, and £256,000,000 in the 
 latter, being an increase of British produce and manufac- 
 tures to the extent of 162 per cent. Fi'om that year, 
 which was the one in which our exports attained the 
 highest recorded value, down to the one just expired, the 
 imports have gone on increasing, but the exports have 
 steadily declined, as will be seen from the following figures 
 taken from the published official accounts : — 
 
 ' Ante, page 55. ' Aute, page 77.
 
 140 
 
 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 
 Total 
 Imports. 
 
 Again 
 Exported. 
 
 Retained 
 for Home 
 
 Use. 
 
 British 
 Produce and 
 
 Manufacturos 
 Exported. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Excess 
 
 of 
 Imports. 
 
 1872 
 
 354 
 
 58 
 
 296 
 
 2.j6 
 
 314 
 
 40 
 
 '73 
 
 371 
 
 56 
 
 315 
 
 255 
 
 311 
 
 60 
 
 '74 
 
 370 
 
 58 
 
 312 
 
 240 
 
 298 
 
 72 
 
 '75 
 
 374 
 
 58 
 
 316 
 
 224 
 
 282 
 
 92 
 
 '76 
 
 375 
 
 56 
 
 319 
 
 201 
 
 257 
 
 118 
 
 '77 
 
 394 
 
 53 
 
 341 
 
 199 
 
 252 
 
 142 
 
 The figures as given in tlie Twenty-first Report of the 
 Commissioners of Customs vary somewhat from these — the 
 diflFerence arising from bullion and specie — which are pub- 
 lished separately in the ordinary returns, being here incor- 
 porated with the merchandise. They are as follows, stated 
 in millions of pounds only : — 
 
 
 Imoorts. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Excess of Imports 
 over Exports. 
 
 
 British. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 Total. 
 
 British. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 1872 
 
 384 
 
 287 
 
 58 
 
 345 
 
 97 
 
 39 
 
 '73 
 
 405 
 
 284 
 
 56 
 
 340 
 
 121 
 
 65 
 
 '74 
 
 400 
 
 262 
 
 58 
 
 320 
 
 138 
 
 80 
 
 '75 
 
 407 
 
 251 
 
 58 
 
 309 
 
 156 
 
 98 
 
 '76 
 
 412 
 
 230 
 
 56 
 
 286 
 
 182 
 
 126 
 
 The two sets of figures are here given, because, in dis- 
 cussing the subject, writers appeal sometimes to the one 
 and sometimes to the other. It is as well that the apparent 
 divergence, and yet the real agreement of the statistics, 
 should be rightly understood. 
 
 The preliminary question, however, is thus raised — 
 whether in estimating the trade of either this country or 
 those with which we deal, it is proper to mingle goods and 
 bullion together ? This depends entirely upon the purpose 
 for which the figures are used. In stating the volume of our 
 trade there can be no doubt that the gold and silver ex-
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 141 
 
 tracted from the earth in Australia or Nevada stand in the 
 same category as the coal and iron raised from our own pits. 
 Both are really goods in which we trade. Nor is the case 
 altered when the mints of Sydney or Japan, for convenience, 
 convert the precious ore into coin. The manipulation does 
 not make it cease to be the produce of the country any 
 more than the manufacture '^^'ith us of iron into rails or 
 hardware makes that metal less an article of export. When, 
 however, the ingots or specie arc once transferred from the 
 country of production to that of use, they cease to be goods 
 in which trade is carried on, and become circulating medium, 
 or the representative of value in the settlement of accounts. 
 The coin goes and comes in the same manner as bank notes 
 or bills of exchange j and to reckon it again in the exports 
 and imports is to double the extent of trade. For instance. 
 Bank of England notes frequently cross the Channel, and, 
 when used in that way, they as effectually cancel a debt or 
 pm-chase an article as the sovereigns they represent would 
 do ; and the bullion just as fully performs its office when 
 lying in the bank cellars as when actually transported 
 abroad. The true method of compiling the trade figures 
 would be to include all production as first produced, and 
 afterwards to exclude everything that passes from hand to 
 hand simply as a means of payment ; but, as matter of fact, 
 there is no means of separating the one from the other, 
 and, therefore, it is perhaps best to leave both out. 
 
 When, however, we are dealing with the balance of 
 trade, the surplus of import over export, or vice versa, be- 
 comes an important element. Still, for reasons which will 
 be shown hereafter, it would seem well to consider remit- 
 tances of specie to and fro as one of the means by which 
 the balance is adjusted, and, in the first instance, to en- 
 deavour to get at the real difference which arises in bartering 
 the goods received and delivered. There are some other 
 considerations to which attention must be given before we 
 can strike a proper balance between the two. 
 
 Were our trading operations now conducted upon the
 
 142 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 simple conditions which prevailed in earlier years, there 
 would be little difficulty in balancing the incomings and 
 outgoings, and so ascertaining the extent of profit or loss 
 which they yielded. Then, a venturer, either owning a 
 vessel himself, or working in conjunction with others, would 
 purchase goods at home to be sent abroad. There he would 
 dispose of them by sale or barter for other articles for which 
 a demand existed at home, and, on completing the return 
 voyage, turn these into cash. The difference between his 
 first outlay and the sum finally received would show the 
 exact result of the transaction. The aggregate of these 
 operations would constitute the gain to the nation. Now 
 there are many modifications of this system. A large pro- 
 portion of the trade is carried on for the benefit of those 
 abroad, who may be Englishmen or foreigners, and a com- 
 mission only accrues to those who earn it at home. As 
 capitalists we are investing and lending money all over the 
 world. As bankers we are exchanging large sums with other 
 nations which at best but yield a percentage of profit. We 
 have large sums remitted here for investment or expendi- 
 ture, some belonging to foreigners, but most to our own 
 countiymen living abroad. Now all these various transac- 
 tions, however large or complicated, must find a balance in 
 the goods or bullion which we import and export ; and it 
 becomes necessary, in the first instance, to have a clear idea 
 of what the figures on which arguments must be based really 
 mean. 
 
 Putting aside, then, for the present the question of how 
 the balance is to be provided for, it will be well to treat the 
 question as one of simple barter, and see if it be possible at 
 some given point to fix what is the real difference between 
 the two values. The official figures being the only ones from 
 which information can be obtained, and these being taken 
 at our own shores, the object to be kept in view is to ascer- 
 tain how far the goods we export will go in liquidation 
 of the claims against us for those we import ; and what, 
 supposing the difference had to be discharged in actual
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 143 
 
 money, would bo the sum needed to balance the account. 
 How or when that balance is actually settled is a further 
 branch of the inquiry. It may not be possible to get at this 
 balance for any given year with absolute certainty; but that 
 is not so much a point of importance as it is to be assured 
 that the calculations for several years are relatively correct, 
 and in doing this there is little difficulty. 
 
 First take the imports. The value given should be 
 the '^wholesale market price at the time and place of 
 arrival/' and, therefore, includes freight, which, being paid 
 in this country, does not need to be met by a corresponding 
 export of goods, and must, therefore, be deducted from the 
 official values. Then, on the export side, the value given 
 represents the cost of the goods at the time they leave the 
 country. But there are several items, such as the value of 
 ships built for foreigners, coals shipped for use of steamers, 
 victualling stores, &c., none of which are included in the 
 account, though, in fact, they should be added to the 
 amount. 
 
 Without entering into the details shown in the statistical 
 paper before alluded to, we may say that the several correc- 
 tions, the necessity of which we have just specified, are 
 estimated to alter the apparent excess of imports in the 
 undermentioned years, as follows : — 
 
 1872 from £40 millions to— £3 
 
 1873 
 
 }i 
 
 60 
 
 >) 
 
 14 
 
 1874 
 
 >) 
 
 72 
 
 }) 
 
 27 
 
 1875 
 
 }) 
 
 92 
 
 >) 
 
 48 
 
 1876 
 
 )) 
 
 118 
 
 }) 
 
 75 
 
 1877 „ 112 „ 97 
 
 We thus arrive at the conclusion that, supposing all tho 
 goods imported were paid for on their arrival here, and all 
 those exported exchanged for money at the time of exporta- 
 tion, the cash balance which in 1872 would have been 
 £3,000,000 in our favour, was in 1877 £97,000,000 against 
 us; and that so much money or money's worth has to bo
 
 144 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 provided from some source or other out of tlio country, for 
 if we add the bullion and specie it would not materially alter 
 the figures. In 1872 the excess would be about £700,000 
 more ; in the four next years the figures are respectively b, 
 2, 6, and 8 millions of increase, and in 1877 they show 2 
 millions of pounds less. These are not serious amounts, but 
 deserve to be stated for the sake of accuracy. 
 
 The figures thus assumed as showing the balances which 
 have had to be provided for are not put forward with any 
 pretension to absolute accuracy, although they are believed 
 to fairly represent the actual results of each yearns trade, 
 and the calculations on which they are based having been 
 some time before the statisticians of the country have not 
 been impugned. It follows then, we repeat, that in 1872 
 this balance was in favour of the exports by about 
 £3,000,000, but that it had turned against us in 1877 to the 
 extent of £97,000,000, the intervening years also showing 
 an excess of imports of 14, 27, 48, and 75 millions respec- 
 tively. These are the sums which, after setting ofi" the 
 whole value of the goods we have sold out of the country 
 against those we have bought into it, remain to be paid or 
 adjusted with our co-traders and producers abroad ; and the 
 subjects for inquiry are in what way these claims have been 
 liquidated, how they are to be met in future years, and 
 what effects they indicate or are likely to produce upon our 
 national prosperity. On these points the greatest difference 
 of opinion prevails, arising from the difiiculty there is in dis- 
 entangling in very complicated business transactions the one 
 detail from the other, and the greatest confusion of ideas 
 exists for want of attention to the several relations subsisting 
 between this country and the rest of the world. 
 
 Now there are but three sources from which the above- 
 specified obligations can be discharged : the transmission of 
 bullion, the diversion of income accruing abroad, or the ab- 
 sorption of capital invested and debts owing to us in other 
 countries. 
 
 The first method has certainly not been adopted, for the
 
 DEPKESSION OF TRADE. 145 
 
 balance of bullion and specie transmitted is very inconsider- 
 ablCj and only in the first and last of the years of which we 
 are speaking have they been on the export side. If we 
 include these figures, the" balances will be changed to 3'6, 
 18"5, 28"5, 54"2, 83', and 9o* millions of pounds sterling. 
 
 The main source of supply is doubtless the income arising 
 or accruing abroad, which is in fact remitted here in goods 
 rather than in money, and, so far as this goes, the higher the 
 amount it may reach, the greater the prosperity it evidences. 
 \V^hatever it may be, it is won for the country, by the 
 labour, the intellect, and the capital operating beyond our 
 own shores ; whether of those actually living abroad, or of 
 those directing and supporting such operations by their 
 talent and their credit whilst remaining at home. What 
 the whole of such income may be, it is perhaps impossible to 
 ascertain. Such an investigation would expand this paper 
 far beyond the limits of space within which it must be con- 
 fined. All that can be here done is bi-icfly to mention the 
 various channels through which it may flow. 
 
 There are, first, the profits derived from the purchase and 
 sale of goods abroad on account of those residing at homo 
 and those who remit such gains to this country. Whatever 
 is spent or invested before it comes here clearly cannot bo 
 applied in payment for goods sent here, neither can any in- 
 crease of price obtained after they an"ivc be so applied 
 without its forming part of the goods or bullion sent away; 
 and both these values have been already applied to prevent 
 the balance accruing. The difference between the price 
 paid for wheat or sugar in the countries of produce and that 
 which the article fetches on arrival here is so much to the 
 good as against the balance only when it is retained here, 
 and not when it has to be remitted to the sender. In like 
 manner, the difference between the sum paid for goods 
 shipped outwards, and that they may realize on arriving at 
 their destination is only to the credit of this country when it 
 is received by the shipper here. On what may be bought 
 or sold here on behalf of speculators abroad, commission 
 
 L
 
 140 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 and interest on advances are all that accrue. Probably 
 this, at any rate in depressed times like the present, is a 
 surer and better return than the profit made in the trading; 
 and considering the large proportion of business which is 
 done on commission, five per cent, on the total imports will 
 be an ample estimate. Commission obtained on the exports 
 must not be reckoned, having been already included in the 
 value. 
 
 Next to these, there must be a considerable sum derived 
 from the salaries and earnings of employes and labourers in 
 foreign countries, the surplus of which comes to this country 
 for the support of their families and for investment. 
 
 Again, there will be the net earnings of British shipping 
 on that portion of the work they do which is paid for abroad. 
 That portion which is paid at home constitutes a charge on 
 the imports after, and on exports 'before, their valuation, 
 and consequently does not enter into the account. 
 
 Then we have the remittances from the Indian Govern- 
 ment in repayment of moneys expended on its account in 
 England ; also the dividends on foreign loans, including 
 commission on their raising and management at home; and 
 the profits on manufacturing operations for which the capital 
 and some of the working expenses are provided here. 
 
 In short, whatever income may be receivable in this 
 country from any source out of it will come here in the shape 
 of goods, oftentimes not directly, but in the end, in the 
 ultimate settlement of accounts between indi\aduals and 
 nations ; and, if it be equivalent to the balance which has to 
 be provided, the magnitude of our imports is a cause for 
 congratulation — a proof of wealth and prosperity. 
 
 Against these items, however, must be set ofiF the value 
 of whatever goods we send abroad, the proceeds of which 
 are not actually realized in this country. If we lend money 
 to foreigners, invest it in commercial or manufacturing 
 concerns abroad, or send out machinery and plant to be 
 worked, not paid for, it will all appear in the shape of ex- 
 ports, which have been already set ofi" against the imports.
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 147 
 
 There is no doubt that in the earlier years of the period em- 
 braced in the figures of which we are treating^ the exports 
 were swollen largely by the foreign loans and investments 
 we were then embarking in, and that now these are not 
 being repeated ; but it is well known that English capital is 
 still being invested in trading, agricultural, manufacturing, 
 and mining concerns abroad. All this must be either so 
 much diverted from remittances homo or be transported 
 abroad in the shape of goods. 
 
 The simple enumeration of the various sources — actual, 
 probable, possible — from which the means may be obtained 
 of liquidating the cost of our imports is sufficient to show 
 how very uncertain any estimate of their total produce must 
 be. Yet the question is of the utmost importance, for on its 
 answer depends whether we are indeed only arrested in 
 our national prosperity — simply ceasing to accumulate our 
 savings — or are actually parting with our investments in 
 other lands. Mr. Rathbone, M.P., and other writers boldly 
 assert that we are doing the latter, and even cautious autho- 
 rities are ready to admit the probability that wo are reducing 
 the amount in which the world is indebted to ourselves. For 
 this is the only remaining ivay in ivhich our ohligations can he 
 discharged. Nor are there wanting indications that the case 
 really stands in that way. No one of any weight seriously 
 asserts that our foreign income, great as it may be, is equal 
 to 80 heavy a demand. The public are known to have 
 become distrustful of many foreign securities ; and the ple- 
 thora of unemployed capital enhances the price of those that 
 are of undoubted stability, so that seekers for high-paying 
 stocks or shares are fain to hold back for better times. 
 
 ]Jut whatever be the true state of the case as regards our 
 power to pay without withdrawing capital from paying in- 
 vestments or occupations, it is perfectly clear that wo must 
 now be worse off l)y a hundred millions — unless indeed it 
 can be shown that our income has grown to that extent since 
 1872 — and, moreover, the figures are very suggestive of a 
 further decline. The descent has been constant, 17, 13, 21,
 
 148 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 27, and 22 millions in successive years, without any prospect 
 yet that the downward limit has been reached. The amounts 
 in the last published account show that December improved 
 slightly over the same month of last year in the exports, but 
 there is nothing like so great an increase as is shown in the 
 imports. 
 
 Looking forward to the future, it wall be well now to con- 
 sider whether there is a probability of an improvement set- 
 ting in. As regards an increase of income from our present 
 investments abroad, there is little room for hope. The 
 borrowing States which have proved defaulters, either in 
 whole or part, seem more likely to become utterly bank- 
 rupt than to be able to pay up the lapsed dividends. 
 Some of the public undertakings, such as railways, &c., may 
 possibly improve in their dividends, but others will pro- 
 bably fall off; so that the total yield is not likely to be greater 
 than hitherto. There is more hope that the recent invest- 
 ments in private undertakings, manufacturing and mining, 
 may give better returns ; but the incomes derived from 
 trade, besides the fact that the return is not so lucrative as 
 before, manifest a growing tendency to fall into the hands 
 of permanent residents abroad. With the extension of 
 capital, of experience, and of intelligence on the part of 
 those who in their own countries devote themselves to these 
 pursuits, a greater proportion of the business transacted 
 falls into their hands, and less comes to the share of those 
 who remit the surplus profits home. Then economical con- 
 siderations are reducing the salaries of officials and the 
 gains of professional men, part of which they were in the 
 habit of sending home. Even shipping, which is now in so 
 depressed a condition, will probably become owned to a 
 greater extent by foreigners, although with the growth of 
 commerce it is not improbable that we, who have been for so 
 long the masters of the seas, may still monopolize the greater 
 share of the carrying trade, and may perform it on more 
 remunerative rates. Thus the conclusion is that there is no 
 well grounded expectations of a speedy enlargement of the
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 149 
 
 sources from which the claims upon us can be met from 
 foreign receipts. 
 
 Can we, in the next place, hope to increase our exports ? 
 It is often asserted that the diminished value of these arises 
 from the fall in price rather than in quantity. Let us take 
 the three great branches of exporting industry, which to- 
 gether contributed last year 110 millions out of the 199 
 millions of total exports. 
 
 In 1872 we exported Cotton 3,.';37 inilliun vanls, in 1877, 3,8;36. 
 „ „ Iron 3,383 „ tons, „ 2,34o. 
 
 „ „ Woollens 412 „ yards, „ 262. 
 
 It thus appears that iron has actually fallen off 77 per cent, 
 and woollen goods 58 per cent. ; although cottons have in- 
 creased 8 per cent. Thus extraordinarily low prices, such 
 as really leave but little if any room for profit on the manu- 
 facture, have failed really to stimulate demand; though it 
 is well understood that a large portion of the shipments are 
 owing to the reduction in price, but for which they would 
 not have taken place at all. The truth seems to be that 
 supply has outstripped demand. The extraordinary sales 
 of 1871-3 raised expectations which led to a vast increase 
 in the means of production at home, and prompted the 
 creation of such means in other countries, whose competi- 
 tion forces down prices to the detriment of ourselves and 
 them. It is the fashion in some quarters to decry foreign 
 competition and to point to the failure of works carried on 
 in other countries to realize profitable returns, but the 
 reality of such competition is too well known to those who 
 are best informed. The foreigners have had to struggle 
 witli all the difficulties incideifb to starting in new under- 
 takings, we have had all the advantages of long established 
 concerns ; and yet the lower cost at which labour can bo 
 ]irocurcd assures that under present conditions they will 
 first feel the benefit of a revived demand whenever such 
 shall arrive. So long as coal and iron were more acces- 
 fiible to us at homo than thuse abroad, we might bo said to 
 be masters of the situation. These we no longer retain in
 
 150 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 almost exclusive possession, and our manufacturing popula- 
 tion feels the result in diminished wages and shorter hours. 
 
 This question of foreign competition is worthy of the 
 closest investigation. It has recently been asserted* that 
 compared with our home trade^ the foreign is of so little 
 importance that its extinction would be borne without much 
 injury. To support this opinion it is alleged that after 
 deducting the cost of raw material imported and used in 
 the manufacture of the £200,000,000 of value exported, 
 there may be left at the most £140,000,000 of income derived 
 from our foreign trade, whilst the aggregate income of 
 the country is estimated at £1,200,000,000; and supposing 
 some other use to be made of the machines and tools now 
 employed in producing what we send to foreigners, — were 
 the whole of our foreign custom to be lost, — it would not 
 deprive us of more than a tenth or twelfth of our whole 
 income. The estimate of 1,200 millions sterling is amved 
 at by considering that the gross annual value charged to 
 the Income Tax being 500 millions, to which another 
 hundred millions may be added for exemptions and incomes 
 under Schedule D, which escape payment, " the net in- 
 comes of the Income Tax paying classes,^^ it is said, 
 " must be somewhere about 600 millions sterling," and it 
 is added that " the incomes of the wage-receiving and non- 
 paying section can hardly be taken as less than another 600 
 millions.^' Is it, however, correct to take assessment to 
 the income tax as a basis, seeing that the same income is 
 charged over and over again as it passes through difiFerent 
 hands ? It is charged at its first inception and at many of 
 its subsequent distributions, and hence arises one very 
 cogent argument against the fairness of the tax at all. 
 
 This may be illustrated by supposing the case of two 
 individuals deriving incomes of equal amounts, either from 
 the cultivation of the soil, investments in the funds, or from 
 the profits of any manufacture. Each pays the same amount 
 of tax. The one spends all in the maintenance of his 
 ' " Times," 19th Nov., 1877, "Foreign Competition."
 
 DEPRESSION OF TIJADE. 151 
 
 family at home and the employment of labom* on liia estate. 
 The other pays a clergyman to teach the adults on his 
 property^ a schoolmaster to teach the children, he sends his 
 daughters to school and educates his sons for a profession, 
 and the amounts he pays for each of these objects on passing 
 into the hands of other persons are again assessed, being 
 reckoned in their respective incomes. Again, all these per- 
 sons pay the butcher and the baker, the physician and the 
 lawyer, and in every one of these cases another charge is 
 raised. Yet all the while the total income, so far as the 
 country is concerned, remains actually the same. Indeed, the 
 incomes of the wage-receiving classes become indirectly as- 
 sessed, for their earnings pass into the hands of the tradesmen 
 with whom they deal, whose profits become chargeable. The 
 error consists in supposing that the aggregate of indivi- 
 dual incomes and the income of the country are one and 
 the same. That only is true income which is created, and 
 none of those who are non-producers adds anything to the 
 national income, although they may have to contribute to its 
 taxes. They are simply agents in this sense of distributing 
 that which has been. produced by others. 
 
 But a still gi-aver eiTor exists in the supposition that any 
 amount of money passing between individuals at home can 
 have any effect upon that which is required for transmission 
 abroad. In relation to the rest of the world our only 
 income is that which we have power to spend -u-ith it. So 
 long as A fattens sheep and B weaves cloth, they may \vith 
 advantage exchange their respective produce, but neither 
 is one step nearer to obtaining the sugar or the fur he 
 requires from abroad. If the producer of these will not 
 take the wool of the one or the cloth of the other, both A 
 and B must go without. Nor is the real nature of the 
 transaction at all altered because C and D come between 
 them, buying from the one and selling to the other. Let 
 the money, which is simply the medium of exchange, bo 
 but sent out of the country to pay the sugar-pluuter in 
 Jamaica or the hunter in North America, and neither A
 
 152 
 
 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 nor B will long have any. Suppose the l-iO millions as- 
 sumed to be the profits of our foreign trade to he lost, then 
 we should necessarily have by so much to reduce our im- 
 ports, for if we attempted to pay for them in bullion, national 
 bankruptcy must speedily ensue. Do away with our foreign 
 trade, or let it be taken from us by foreign competition, and 
 we must be content to exist only on that which we can raise 
 within our home boundaries, excepting always that which 
 our investments and earnings abroad provide the means of 
 paying for. 
 
 This brings us to the consideration of what probability 
 there may be of our being able to lessen the extent of our 
 imports, the value of which for each of the last six years 
 has already been given. An analysis of these figures in one 
 of the papers already alluded to ' shows the following dis- 
 tribution under the various headings of Food, Raw Material, 
 and Manufactured Goods in million pounds sterling for the 
 ten years, 1867-76. 
 
 
 Food. 
 
 Eaw 
 
 Material. 
 
 Manufactured 
 Material. 
 
 Total. 
 
 1867 
 
 101 
 
 100 
 
 29 
 
 230 
 
 '68 
 
 105 
 
 110 
 
 32 
 
 247 
 
 '69 
 
 106 
 
 108 
 
 34 
 
 248 
 
 '70 
 
 100 
 
 119 
 
 40 
 
 259 
 
 '71 
 
 118 
 
 117 
 
 36 
 
 271 
 
 '72 
 
 136 
 
 125 
 
 3.5 
 
 296 
 
 '73 
 
 147 
 
 133 
 
 35 
 
 315 
 
 '74 
 
 143 
 
 130 
 
 39 
 
 312 
 
 '75 
 
 157 
 
 118 
 
 41 
 
 316 
 
 '76 
 
 159 
 
 119 
 
 41 
 
 319 
 
 The returns for 1877 are not yet completed, when they 
 are it will probably be found that the whole increase of 22 
 millions has been on articles of food. If so, the growth of 
 consumption during these last ten years has been 80 per cent, 
 on food, 20 per cent, on raw materials, and 40 per cent, on 
 
 ' Manchester Statistical Trausactions.
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 153 
 
 manufactured articles; and that our present demands in 
 these ways require 180, 120, and 40 millions respectively. 
 It will be observed that the increase has been least in the 
 raw materials used in manufacture, which fact corresponds 
 with the falling off of our exports, the bulk of which are 
 manufactured out of imported material. These scarcely 
 admit of reduction unless our manufacturing industries are 
 to be still further crippled, which would imply, as is already 
 apparent, a diminished power of purchase on the part of our 
 artisans and labourers. Neither can we wish any material 
 reduction in manufactured articles, excepting in so far aa 
 those of foreign manufacture are superseding the work of 
 our own operatives. It is to be feared that a considerable 
 portion of the increase is due to this cause. We may be 
 well content to avail ourselves of the skill and industry of 
 other nations in rendering natural products fit for use or 
 ornament, so long as we can persuade them to take the 
 works of our hands in exchange ; but surely foreign compe- 
 tition is to be dreaded when it is directed against our own 
 manufactures. 
 
 Nor would any well-wisher of our own people desire to 
 sec any diminution in the supplies of food, but rather he 
 would seek a constant addition to the quantity, excepting 
 indeed in the case of those articles falling under this head 
 which minister to the national vice of intemperance. These, 
 for 1876, are valued in the paper we have quoted from at 
 £1 1,000,000 of imports in the form of drink, and £ 14,000,000 
 for the materials converted in our own brewencs and dis- 
 tilleries. Amounts such as these under this head, even if 
 saved, as is to be hoped, will only for a short time prevail 
 in the face of the larger increase which must arise in neces- 
 sary articles of food for our over-increasing population. It 
 is calculated that though we have 3'3 million inhaliitant.s in 
 the United Kingdom, the home growth of food is only suf- 
 ficient to maintain 18 millions, leaving 15 millions of our 
 people dependent on foreign supplies. The natural increase 
 of pojiulation is not quite ouo per cent, per annum, far less
 
 154 EXCESS OF IMPOliTS AND 
 
 than it should be if life and health were properly cared for ; 
 but at this rate we have every year from a quarter to one- 
 third of a million more to provide for. We are not increas- 
 ing in home growth of food, and therefore the whole supply 
 for this addition to population must come from abroad. This 
 alone ^vill require an annual addition on our imports to the 
 value of from 3 to 4 millions, sufficient in a very few years 
 to swallow up any savings from the abandonment of useless 
 or vicious expenditure in food. 
 
 From all these and some other considerations we are 
 forced to the conclusion before stated, namely, that we need to 
 have an income drawn from sources entirely outside the United 
 Kingdom of at least 100 millions sterling per annum to pay 
 our way with the other nations of the world, and that, un- 
 less there be some radical amendment or alteration in our 
 trading and manufacturing condition, there is no prospect 
 for some time to come of this necessity being lessened. To 
 this point, then, it will be well that those who have the 
 means of investigating or discovering the real amount of 
 the world's annual indebtedness to this country should apply 
 their researches. If our receipts in that way be just the 100 
 millions, we are consuming it all in food, to say nothing of 
 other perishable purchases, leaving nothing for saving or 
 accumulation. If the sum exceed that amount we may be 
 adding to our investments in other countries, and so pro- 
 viding for the growing enlargement of demands on our 
 foreign resources by as much as the excess may be. But 
 if, on the other hand, the receipts fall short of the sum 
 named, we must be calling in our credits, parting with our 
 securities, or creating debts for futm'e liquidation. Which- 
 ever way we look at it, we see that we are less prosperous 
 than we were six years ago, and it may be that our present 
 position is one of actual or coming adversity, — that we are 
 now, or soon shall be, really living upon our capital. 
 
 It is, however, asserted that we cannot be doing this, be- 
 cause we are making constant accumulations at home.^ The 
 ^ " Times," 7th Dec, 1877, " Excess of Imports."
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 155 
 
 same fallacy pervades this argument as the cognate one 
 regarding home income. Accumulations at home may add 
 to our comfort, but cannot avail us in our dealings with 
 foreign countries, unless the accumulations be of moveable 
 wealth which we transport abroad ; and even this will bo 
 of no avail if we cannot persuade foreigners to take it in ex- 
 change for those products of their lands which we need or 
 desire. We may cover our own land with buildings, increase 
 our rent-rolls to any extent, fill our houses with costly fur- 
 niture, and adorn them with works of art; we may drain 
 our marshes and embank our rivers ; we may extend our 
 railway system, multiply horses and chariots ; we may dress 
 in fine linen and fare sumptuously every day ; — but not one 
 morsel of foreign food will any of these things bring to our 
 shores, if we cannot barter them with other nations. If we are 
 stocking our warehouses with goods in the expectation of 
 revived demand ; if we are erecting factories and machinery 
 which may enable us to produce those goods when that 
 demand shall arise ; if we are building ships to carry them 
 away, or laying down railroads to facilitate their transport ; 
 we may be laying the foundation for a future accession of 
 wealth, but we are not, in doing this now, accumulating 
 that wealth, we are only preparing for its acquisition, and 
 the wisdom or the folly of such procedure must remain in 
 doubt until subsequent events may justify or condemn our 
 forecast. 
 
 Another course of reasoning is constantly to be met with, 
 namely, it is argued that an excess of imports cannot really 
 be at all injurious, since other nations with whom there is an 
 excess of exports arc suffering from the same depression of 
 trade. The error here lies in coupling together circum- 
 stances which happen to exist at the same time, but which 
 do not necessarily stand in the relation of cause and effect. 
 Trade is depressed both in England and the United States, 
 and from the same cause, — the producers are more than are 
 needed to produce the quantities of goods consumed. But 
 there the parallel ends ; — wo produce more than we can find
 
 15G EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 buyers for, the Americans owing to maintaining a protective 
 policy produce at a greater cost than consumers are willing to 
 pay. Again, with us, agriculture is barely, if at all, profitable, 
 because we produce at high cost; with them agiiculture is 
 flourishing, because they raise their produce at such rates 
 as induce buyers. We buy because we have not enough 
 food at home to support our population ; they sell because 
 they have more than enough. We can sustain doing this 
 for a time, because in former times we have lent them 
 money, the securities for which we can exchange for their 
 food. They from the produce of their fields are paying off 
 the debts incurred in warfare ; we are receiving payment 
 of their obligations and eating it up as fast as we get it. 
 But what would be the position of each country were all 
 trade suddenly to cease, and each people were thrown upon 
 its own resources ? We should have empty bellies ; the 
 Americans might have bare backs. They, finding no market 
 for their surplus food, would devote their labour to turning 
 their cotton and their wool into clothing ; we should with 
 difficulty, perhaps by costly methods, strive to increase the 
 produce of the soil, and having exhausted our stores, be- 
 come destitute of clothing, and whilst the corn was growing, 
 the would-be eaters would starve. In short, we, losing 
 our past gains and consuming our accumulated savings, 
 should fall into decrepitude ; they, husbanding their re- 
 sources, and unable to spend their means in foreign extra- 
 vagances, would be prepared, when circumstances altered, 
 to step into the place from whence we had fallen. To them 
 the stoppage of trade would be painful; to us it would be 
 absolutely fatal. More than one-half of our population will 
 soon be absolutely dependent upon foreign supplies for their 
 daily food ; and but two methods of supplying their wants 
 lie open — either to make our land produce double crops, or 
 to maintain the trade by which we exchange our manufac- 
 tures for food and other necessaries, A third course is, 
 indeed, open, and that is to transj^ort our population to 
 places where food may be grown more cheaply, where those
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 157 
 
 who grow it would be thereby enabled, not only to support 
 themselves, but to become purchasers of our manufactures. 
 
 If these things be true the nation is passing through 
 a crisis of greater severity than most of us are aware, 
 and until a radical change take place in our manufac- 
 turing and trading relations, we must look for a still 
 greater disparity between its expenditure and its receipts, 
 for the sup])lies it obtains and renders. By some it is con- 
 sidered that foreign manufacturers having, like our own, 
 been over-producing, are recklessly selling at unremunera- 
 tive prices their accumulated stocks, and that we, being pos- 
 sessed of more capital than they, will be able to hold out 
 longer, and sooner be able to obtain higher prices for larger 
 quantities. By others the cause of depression is sought 
 in the disturbances occasioned by the war now raging, and 
 they argue that when this is settled there will be an imme- 
 diate revival of trade. By others the reason of the existing 
 state of things is found in the unftivourablc harvests in this 
 country of the last few years, and, believing that the sea- 
 sons run in cycles, they predict that the turn will soon come 
 for years of abundant yield. Others, again, lay the blame 
 at the door of Free Trade and long for some modification of 
 our treaty arrangements, which shall secure reciprocity, if 
 not exactly a return to the old days of Protection. Once 
 more, it is affirmed by others, that the evil arises from over- 
 population, and that were measures taken to repress our 
 increase in numbers, a different state of things would 
 result. 
 
 Now all these several causes and reasons, though in some 
 degree they throw light on the condition in which we stand, 
 appear to be insufficient to explain why the excess of im- 
 ports should be so large and trade so depressed as it is. 
 Nor does there seem to be any well-grounded hope that tho 
 existing evils will bo speedily removed. It is with no desire 
 to excite undue alarm that these conclusions are dwelt upon, 
 but solely from the conviction that, when disease exists, a 
 correct diagnosis is the first step towards effecting a cure.
 
 158 EXCESS OF IMrORTS AND 
 
 Without tliis^ the true remedies cannot be applied^ nor even 
 effectual palliatives bo prescribed. The patient whose phy- 
 sician fails to comprehend the true nature of the attack will 
 suflfer loss of strength till the sickness becomes chronic, and 
 all anticipations of recovery become hopeless. 
 
 Where, then, is the remedy to be found ? In discontinu- 
 ing the deep-rooted extravagance and want of economy 
 which characterize the present age — extravagance in the 
 expenditure of means, want of economy in the employment 
 of time and strength. It is not that we have too many 
 people, for, as the figures are capable of showing, even with 
 our present consumption of food and other products, the 
 proportion of the population employed in producing these 
 leaves an ample number for producing what are not articles 
 of necessity. With the wages our labouring classes have 
 been receiving, there ought not, until very recently, to have 
 been destitution or poverty amongst them, and, but for their 
 lavish expenditure, comfort might have universally pre- 
 vailed. It is high wages which enhance the cost of our 
 manufactures, and so drive trade from the country; it is the 
 misemployment of those wages which causes privation, and 
 leads to sufiering. Were abstinence from drink, or even 
 moderation in the use of alcoholic liquors, imiversal, there 
 is no need, or at least there was none until recently, why 
 hunger or nakedness should be undergone by so many. 
 Look at what has been spent in this way. The 25 millions 
 sterling mentioned before is simply the cost of the materials 
 from which spirituous liquors are made. The heavy duties 
 so properly levied on these beverages come to at least 
 treble the cost of the material, and the labour employed in 
 their manufacture must more than quadruple the price to 
 the consumer. Let us add to these items the interest of 
 capital devoted to their manufacture and sale, and we shall 
 see how vast is the cost to the consumer. It is a low esti- 
 mate which would put this sum down at an amount equalling 
 the balance against our trade. Thus the whole difficulty 
 would be solved could we effect a reformation in the drink-
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 159 
 
 ing habits of the people. -To find so many labourers on an 
 average spending more than half their earnings on this one 
 gratification, leaves no room for surprise that labour is dear 
 and distress so general. 
 
 The labouring class, however, are not alone to blame in 
 this matter of extravagant expenditure — the middle and 
 higher classes set the example. To outvie each other in the 
 magnificence of their entertainments, equipments, and dress, 
 seems to be the chief olyect in life to many; and whilst this 
 feehng exists as it does in the upper classes, we must not be 
 too hard on those lower in position who manifest an equal 
 degree of folly. These may appear harsh words, but they 
 are not too strong. The contrast which is manifested 
 between the splendour of the rich and the squalor of the 
 poor is utterly wrong, — it disgraces both our Christianity and 
 our boasted civilization. We load our tables with course 
 after course, whilst there are thousands whose vital power 
 is impaired for want of proper nourishment ; we cover our 
 persons with clothing ^yhich we cannot wear out, whilst 
 women and children are perishing for -j^ant of necessary 
 protection against the inclemency of our climate ; we fur- 
 nish our houses with gilded finery, whilst the homes of 
 hundreds are loathsome with filth. Nay, more than this, wo 
 carry the same principle into our religion, lavishly spending 
 in meretricious ornament the wealth which would provide 
 the means of decent worship for the masses who never enter 
 the places now set apart for religion, and wo spend the timo 
 of our clergy in multiplying those neglected services rather 
 than in sending them to meet with the outcasts of society 
 who herd in the back streets of our cities and towns, whilst 
 our charities are too many of them so bestowed that the im- 
 portunate rather than the unfortunate become the recipients. 
 Let it not be thought that this is condemnatory of genuine 
 hospitality and honest social intercourse, of refined taste 
 and liberal expenditure in adorning our homes or our per- 
 sons, of elegance and graudt-ur in the erection of churches 
 and chapels, or of frequent invitations to the services in our
 
 160 EXCESS OF IMPORTS AND 
 
 sanctuaries — for all those there is ample room, without 
 waste of wealth and time. It will not do to say that the 
 owners of wealth may spend it as they please, — consuming 
 much and producing nothing. They are but stewards and 
 trustees for the general welfare, as happily so many of our 
 nobility and capitalists are acknowledging in increasing 
 numbers ; but until this truth is universally admitted, there 
 will never be the needed economy in the use of wealth, time, 
 and influence. 
 
 It will perhaps, however, be said that if all our people 
 were to become frugal, industrious, and sober, we should 
 increase the products for which there is no demand. Well, 
 then, we must create the demand, — not by competing with 
 other nations in their own markets, or bolstering up effete 
 and decaying peoples who will never be satisfactory cus- 
 tomers, — but by seeking out fresh fields, and sending our 
 capital to the newly discovered regions which we may 
 colonize, so finding customers amongst the many natives 
 and the comparatively few of our own population whom we 
 should need to send. Whilst such large portions of the 
 globe are ready to yield their food productions to labour, 
 and teem with multitudes who, with civilization, will bestow 
 that labour, and for that which it raises will take our manu- 
 factures in exchange, it cannot be a necessity that there be 
 starvation and misery at home. 
 
 It was remarked in one of the papers to which allusion 
 has been made, that " Britain now stands tottering on the 
 eminence to which she has attained.'^ Since that was said, 
 her stability has not become more assured. She still stands 
 tottering, — not from the instability of the foundation on 
 which she rests, or from the want of strength to grasp the 
 supports which may insure her safety, — but simply from the 
 intoxication of success, the excitement of overstrained 
 nerves, the difficulty of breathing in the elevated region she 
 has reached. We have gained so much that we are living 
 too fast. Let us check our progress in this direction, and 
 we shall regain the means of still further progress in higher
 
 DEPRESSION OF TRADE. 161 
 
 ends, and shall attain yet more glorious results. If Xerxes 
 wept that ho had no more worlds to conquer, so, now, let us 
 rejoice that there are new worlds to subdue peacefully to the 
 cause of civilization and Christianity. 
 
 M
 
 IX. 
 
 On the true Relation in which Imports and Exports 
 should stand to each other in the trade of a pro- 
 SPEROUS country/ 
 
 SO mucli has been written and spoken of late on tlie 
 question of Imports and Exports in their relation to 
 the Balance of Trade, that it may seem superfluous to tender 
 any further facts or opinions upon this question, but it is 
 only necessary to refer to the proceedings of the Statistical 
 Societies of London and Dublin as well as that of this city 
 during the past year, to show that the subject is by no 
 means exhausted. It may however be doubted whether 
 there would have been so many utterances had there been 
 anything like a thorough understanding or general con- 
 sensus of opinion as to the principles by which our judgment 
 should be guided in deciding on the evidence which these 
 facts afford as to the prosperity or otherwise of a trading 
 community such as that of the United Kingdom. The 
 keen discussions which have arisen whenever these subjects 
 have been under consideration, and the number of able 
 papers which were read during the course of the last session 
 in London, bear testimony to the wide interest which has 
 arisen regarding these matters. It may not therefore be 
 out of place to take this as the subject of the paper which 
 your secretary has done me the honour to ask at my hands 
 for this evening's meeting. 
 
 Trade in its earliest form must have consisted in the 
 
 ^ Read November 20tb, 1878, before tbe Manchester Statistical 
 Societj.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS. 1G3 
 
 mutual exchange or barter of articles of consumption pos- 
 sessed by one and needed or desired by another ; and 
 would probably take place first in supplies of food. It 
 would early be discovered that a concentration of time and 
 strength on the production of one class of articles would 
 yield greater results than if each individual attempted to 
 raise or procure everything that he needed, whilst diversity 
 of taste as well as circumstance would fix the pursuits in 
 which each would engage. One being a tiller of the soil 
 would obtain the animal food he required by giving up a 
 portion of the grain or fruit which he either found or raised 
 by his labour and skill. At first, and in the absence of 
 any imperishable substance as a medium of exchange, the 
 transaction would be one of simple barter, and the standard 
 of value or rate of exchange be determined by the time em- 
 ployed in the production of each of the articles in which 
 they dealt. This would be truly payment in kind, and so 
 long as the produce of a day's labour was given for that 
 which bore a similar charge, perfect equality of bargains 
 would exist, each party gaining more than he could obtain at 
 the same cost, but neither more than he gave to his neigh- 
 bour. Soon however, disparity in bodily strength, in skill or 
 disposition, together >vith the advent of seasons and other 
 circumstances favouring one occupation more than another, 
 would produce inequality, and though for a time the balance 
 might fluctuate, ultimately prosperity would probably attend 
 the one and adversity overtake the other. Then would 
 come the necessity of the weaker to submit to the one in a 
 stronger position, who, such is human nature, would not be 
 slow to take advantage of the opportunities afiforded by the 
 other's need to exact unequal terms ; and thus the clement 
 of profit and loss would be introduced. At the outset, this 
 would probably be confined to dealings in food or other 
 articles of prime necessity in which the buyer would be 
 more or less at the mercy of the seller, but in those of 
 more durable character and less indispensable to existence 
 or comfort, the buyer would have the advantage. Since ho
 
 1G4 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 need not purchase unless ho willed, ho would refrain until 
 ho got or thought he got the best of the bargain,- — -but so 
 soon as through custom, habit or overpowering inclination, 
 the objects of desire became as good as real necessities, the 
 one who sought to possess them would be led to yield to 
 the demands of their owner ; and thus the most laborious 
 or skilled whether of body or mind, as well as the least 
 scrupulous would cause every exchange to be to his 
 advantage. 
 
 Then in process of time the most durable and the least 
 easily obtained articles would become the representatives or 
 standard of value. When jewels and the precious metala 
 were discovered, these as being the most attractive lasting 
 and portable of known substances would naturally become 
 the medium of exchange, the recognized tokens of value; 
 and payment in kind would be transformed into what was 
 equivalent to our present cash payments, more distinctly 
 such, when metals being stamped as coin had a definite 
 nominal worth attached to each. 
 
 Proceeding onward, the necessity real or fancied for one 
 party to secure the food, clothing, or articles of utility and 
 desire, although at the time destitute of the proper medium 
 in which to make payment ; and on the other hand the wish 
 of the possessor to part with his goods, on the belief that 
 deferred payment would yield him a greater return than a 
 present exchange; would lead to his acceptance of a promise 
 to be fulfilled at a future time, and thus purchasing on 
 credit would take its rise. 
 
 Advancing a step farther, the owner of wealth accumulated 
 beyond the power of personal employment, seeing those who 
 desired advances — either under the pressure of poverty, or 
 the belief that the temporaiy possession of what they had not 
 themselves might gain for them more than they would have 
 to repay — would be led to trust such persons with the use 
 of his means on being secured a share in the profits arising 
 from its application to purposes of manufacture or trade, 
 and thus investment on loan or security would come about.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 165 
 
 Another form of this would be where undertakings were 
 started too large for one or a few individuals to compass 
 with their own labour or substance ; these would join their 
 powers to those of others in like positions, employing 
 partners or agents to carry on operations for their joint 
 benefit, and in this manner partnerships and public com- 
 panies would come into existence. 
 
 Now just as it is with individuals so is it with nations ; 
 and this sketch of the various stages of progress, which 
 must be familiar to all who have devoted thought or study 
 to the subject, has been introduced to bring to view dis- 
 tinctly that which happens in the processes by which com- 
 merce is carried on. To see clearly the true bearing which 
 imports and exports have to each other, we must personify 
 each country, gathering all individual traders as it were 
 into units, and, disregarding all internal interchange of 
 wealth or goods, just as we would the transfer of our purse 
 from one pocket to the other, consider only that which 
 takes place to or from the shores of each nation. 
 
 Looking at it in this aspect, we shall see that all the 
 several processes we have described are being carried on 
 at one and the same time in the business of each trading 
 nation, or at any rate in that of our own ; and that the true 
 meaning or effect of the apparent balance between imports 
 and exports depends upon the degree or extent in which 
 either or all of these several methods prevail. In the 
 infancy of trade, such for instance as exists in Africa — so 
 many pounds of beads, or so many yards of calico are sent out 
 to bo exchanged for as much ivory or oil as the untutored 
 natives will part with. Here, although no money passes 
 between the sellers or buyers, the money value of the goods 
 sent out, together with that expended in transporting them 
 from the place of production to that of barter, being set off 
 against the price obtained for those brought back, less tho 
 expense of bringing them home, will show the true amount 
 of profit ; and wore all trade of this description tho excess of 
 imports over exports would bo the exact measure of the
 
 KK) ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 nation^s gain. In like manner, although in the first instance 
 the goods may be sold for money, and others purchased with 
 the proceeds brought back, or where one or more exchanges 
 of goods or money may take place on the way ; wherever 
 that which comes home is wholly procured by that which 
 goes out, the difference between the money value of the two 
 will be the nation^s gain or loss, and if the trade be profitable 
 there must be an excess of import. These are in truth 
 payments in kind between the nations engaged in the 
 transactions. 
 
 Again, supposing money to be sent home for goods 
 exported, or money to be sent out for goods imported, the 
 difference between the value of the goods on exportation 
 and the money received in the one case, or in the other, be- 
 tween the value of the goods when imported and the money 
 with which they were purchased, is to the advantage of the 
 country ; and if the amount of money in each instance is the 
 same, the difference of value in the goods parted with and 
 the goods received will be the exact gain or otherwise 
 resulting to the trader. Imports must exceed exports in 
 value if the trading has been successful; but the amount of 
 money thus used may not be the same on each occasion, and 
 then the difference between the two will be a cash payment 
 to the advantage of whichever has parted with the most 
 goods. 
 
 These are truths so simple and eleinentary as scarcely to 
 need expression, were it not for the fallacy which pervades 
 so many statements in which it is assumed that because 
 imports exceed exports it necessarily follows that the one 
 must have been purchased with the other, and that the 
 difference is wholly gain ; at least so much of it as is not 
 absolutely the produce of earnings or dividends abroad, 
 turned from money into goods, and sent home in this state, 
 instead of bullion or cash. Such writers appear to forget 
 that in the present day the bulk of the trade carried on is 
 not by means of either payment in kind or by cash pay- 
 ments, but on credit. It is true that the individual credits
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 167 
 
 are of short duration, and must be speedily balanced ; but 
 they may be, and are, balanced by other credits, not per- 
 haps between the same parties, but between the nations 
 thus trading together ; and it is utterly impossible to say as 
 between these, how long or to what extent such credit may 
 be given or taken. 
 
 Once more, it docs not follow that the goods thus trans- 
 ferred from one country to another are even paid for by 
 credit. Of course, so far as each trader is concerned, they 
 will be settled in one way or at one time or another; but 
 the nations to which these traders belong may by means of 
 ■other individuals be entrusting money to borrowers or bo 
 investing money in property or joint-stock undertakings; 
 and if so, all these must be taken into account before a true 
 balance of profit or loss can be struck ; and therefore the 
 apparent balance may in truth represent only temporary or 
 permanent investments, or the calling in of those made at 
 times long since gone by. 
 
 It follows, then, that an excess of imports is satisfactory 
 whenever it results : — 
 
 1. From a direct exchange of goods, those an-iving being 
 of greater value than those sent out to be bartered. 
 
 2. From money realized by the sale of exports, instead 
 of being remitted in payment, being exchanged for goods 
 which acquire additional value from transport home ; always 
 supposing that their value on arrival is beyond that of those 
 whose proceeds procured their purchase. This, though 
 somewhat differing in form, is really the same as the 
 previous case. 
 
 3. From the money with which they are paid for being 
 so much income accruing abroad, whether as earnings from 
 labour, profits in trade, or dividends on investments. 
 
 Under all those conditions there may be a constant and 
 growiug excess of imports, the extent of which is the indi- 
 cation and measure of national trading prosperity. To 
 these must be added: — 
 
 4. When the excesses of goods imported are stored up for
 
 1G8 ON 'J'lIE TRUE RELATION IN WIIICII 
 
 omploymGnt in the production of articles for export, such 
 excesses being only temporary^ and balanced by an excess of 
 exports at a future time. 
 
 On the other hand, an even amount or an excess of 
 exports will be satisfactory when the money they realize is 
 beyond their value on leaving, and is : — 
 
 1. Remitted home in cash. 
 
 2. Lent on good security abroad. 
 
 3. Invested in profitable undertakings or the acquisition 
 of property in other countries. 
 
 Applying now these principles to the past and present 
 history of our own country^s trade, let us seek to discover 
 the true import of the changes in its condition which the 
 official accounts record and proclaim. 
 
 In tracing the earlier history of British commerce, many 
 difficulties stand in the way of arriving at any definite con- 
 clusions. It is very uncertain whether full or accurate 
 information was supplied, or the records kept with sufficient 
 care ; and the mode adopted for reducing the quantities of 
 the several articles of trade to their equivalent in money 
 was by no means satisfactory. For reasons more fully ex- 
 plained in two papers read before the Statistical Society 
 (London) ^ this, known as official value, however correct in 
 the outset, failed as time went on to give anything like a 
 fair representation of the respective worth of goods passing 
 inwards and outwards. It consisted of fixed prices assigned 
 to each then known article of trade, to the list of which new 
 goods were from time to time added, at the market rates 
 attached to them at the period when they came to be of 
 sufficient importance to be specially noted ; and this con- 
 tinued to be adopted in the official returns down to 1854. 
 The values were also thus compiled for the purposes of 
 comparison so late as the year 1869, when this method of 
 computation finally ceased to be adopted. As regards the 
 exports of British produce and manufacture so early as 
 
 ^ "Statistical Journals," Vol. xxxv., June, 1872, pp. 207-8; Vol. 
 xxxviii., June, 1878, pp. 215-16 ; Vol. xl., March, 1877, pp. 19-22.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 169 
 
 1798, for tlic purpose of levying a war tax under the name 
 of '* Convoy duty/^ shippers were called upon to make a 
 declaration of the actual value. This obligation still rests 
 upon exporters, and we have thus an unbroken record of 
 declared values down to the present day. For the imports 
 a system was introduced in 1854, whereby the " official 
 values " were discarded, and " computed " ones made by 
 officials at the current market prices were substituted. 
 These gave place in 1871 to values declared by the im- 
 porters on each entry for the landing of their goods, and thus 
 the values now shown in the official returns for both imports 
 and exports are derived from similar sources, — the owner's 
 declaration, scrutinized by the officials who super\dse the 
 landing and shipment of the goods, and the Statistical 
 Department of the Customs from Avhence the published 
 returns emanate. 
 
 The following table gives an epitome of the trade from 
 1699, the earliest date of which there are any sufficient 
 records, to the close of the last century, with the addition 
 of the first fifteen years of the present one, showing the 
 annual growth in value of the goods imported and exported, 
 and the annual increase per cent, of each period over its 
 immediate predecessor. For the first eighty years the par- 
 ticulars are for England alone, from thence to the end of the 
 century Scotland is included, and from thence forward the 
 whole of the United Kingdom. The values on both sides 
 of the account are the "official'' ones, none other being 
 obtainable for imports during the whole period ; and though 
 the ''declared values" might have been given for the last 
 portion of the export account, those corresponding to the 
 import have been retained.
 
 170 
 
 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 Table I. — Showing the Annual Average Amount (in Official value} of 
 the Imports into and Exports from England, in each decennial 
 period from 1699 to 1778 inclusive, and those into and from Great 
 Britain from 1779 to 1800 inclusive, together u-ith the Average 
 Annual Increase per cent, in each successive period. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Period. 
 
 Impoi 
 
 ts. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Annual 
 Average. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Annual 
 Average. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Into England : 
 1699 — 1708 
 
 £ 
 
 4-58 
 5 03 
 6-23 
 7-09 
 6-71 
 7-58 
 9-56 
 10-86 
 
 12-3.5 
 18-61 
 26-16 
 
 10 
 24 
 14 
 — 5 
 13 
 26 
 14 
 
 14 
 51 
 41 
 
 £ 
 
 5-85 
 
 6-.50 
 
 7-18 
 
 8-35 
 
 8-97 
 
 11-02 
 
 12-98 
 
 12-44 
 
 12-58 
 21-55 
 31-97 
 
 
 1709—1718 
 
 11 
 
 '19 — '28 
 
 10 
 
 '29 '38 
 
 16 
 
 '39 — '48 
 
 7 
 
 '49 — '58 
 
 23 
 
 '59 — '68 
 
 18 
 
 '69 — '78 
 
 — 4 
 
 Into Great Britain : 
 1779 — 1788 
 
 I 
 
 '89 — '98 
 
 71 
 
 2 years, 1799—1800... 
 
 48 
 
 The same into the United Kingdom from 1801 to 1815 in quinquennial 
 periods : — 
 
 Into United Kingdom: 
 
 1801 — 1805 
 
 '06 — '10 
 
 28-92 
 30-29 
 29-85 
 
 11 
 5 
 
 1 
 
 33-01 
 37-02 
 45-08 
 
 3 
 
 12 
 
 '11 — '15 
 
 22 
 
 
 
 For the reasons already alluded to, absolute dependence 
 cannot be placed upon these figures, and it would be rash 
 to conclude either that they afibrd a trustworthy record of 
 the whole value of the goods on either side, or that the 
 difference between the two is certainly the balance for any 
 or all of the years included in the table. There is, however, 
 no reason to doubt that relatively to each other, and com- 
 paratively one year with another, they may be taken as fair
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 171 
 
 evidence of the condition of our trade. Having values for 
 later years for both imports and exports on the two systems 
 for the same year, it is quite possible with justice to arrive 
 at the conclusion that however insufficient or erroneous the 
 system may have been, the probabilities of error on either 
 side of the accounts arc equal. We know that for the first 
 few years of declared export value, it was in excess of the 
 official ; and, therefore, that the figures given above were 
 below the truth. That the same variation, though in less 
 degree, attached to the import figures may be inferred from 
 a comparison of the two rates given in later years. Again, 
 the import values include the cost of bringing the articles 
 hither, and the profit obtained on their trading, whilst the 
 export prices exclude the charges and profit realized upon 
 their sale abroad. These, in the earlier days of commerce, 
 were proportionately heavier than at present, hence the 
 real proceeds of our exports as applied towards the payment 
 for imports would be much larger than they now are. The 
 apparent balance in our favour would fail to adequately 
 represent the gain to the country upon the exchange of its 
 produce for the commodities of other lands. 
 
 It will be observed on an inspection of the table, that we 
 started with a balance in favour of exports, and not only 
 maintained this through the whole of the 117 years over 
 which it ranges, but progressively increased it, the imports 
 for the last of the series being Gi times greater than in the 
 first, whilst the exports were multiplied 7} times. Taking 
 into consideration the causes of disparity it is safe to con- 
 clude that in 1818 the purchases wo made could not have 
 absorbed one-half the proceeds of the sales we effected. Now 
 this is just what might have been expected. England was 
 then laying the foundation of her trade, settling her 
 colonics, and starting her connections in foreign countries. 
 To both of these she was sending her sons, not empty- 
 handed, but carrying with them the products of homo in- 
 dustry, wherewith to supply the capital necessary for esta- 
 blishing her settlements and businesses in their new homes.
 
 172 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 Not idle, or wasteful, but earning money, and employing 
 their savings for future profit abroad, rather than remitting 
 them home. In the first instance trade would take the 
 form of simple barter, inexpensive articles of home produc- 
 tion being exchanged for those of foreign growth and 
 manufacture, which as articles of luxury would fetch high 
 prices when brought hither. But the necessity of support- 
 ing life and the growing stability of the colonist and settler 
 would also ensure the conversion of the goods from home 
 into the food and other necessaries for the use of those 
 whose labour and skill produced or acquired property 
 abroad. 
 
 Again, it must be remembered that excepting with gold 
 or silver-producing countries, there are no means of remit- 
 ting money from one place to another, and no way unless 
 to a very limited amount, for one country to obtain property 
 in another, but by first sending it there in some tangible 
 shape, when it must appear as an export from the place of 
 origin to that of occupation. That England has become 
 possessed of large holdings in land, merchandise, and secu- 
 rities all over the world no one will dispute. She can only 
 have done this by first sending it forth either as goods ex- 
 ported, or as living beings to produce and earn, first main- 
 tenance, and then property. Under such circumstances it 
 is utterly fallacious to say that she could benefit only to the 
 extent of her imports — an excess of exports was necessary 
 to the creation and continuance of her wealth outside her 
 own shores. 
 
 The next table continues the account onwards from 1816 
 to the present year. It differs from the previous one in 
 showing, not the total imports, but only those retained in 
 the country for home use, and the exports of British produce 
 and manufacture only. These quantities afi'ord an easier 
 basis for comparison than when burdened on both sides of 
 the account with those merely passing through our hands to 
 foreign customers. The import values are still "official" up 
 to 1854, therefore not quite accurate for comparison with
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 173 
 
 the actual export values. The double valuation in 1854 
 showed that at that date the " oflficial " were short of the 
 " computcd^^ by something like 25 per cent., the result of 
 the assumed prices on which they were founded being fixed; 
 whilst increase of population in numbers and wealth had 
 gradually added to the cost of almost all articles of consump- 
 tion. It is probable, however, that this change was more 
 rapid after the gold discoveries had begun to tell upon 
 prices, and that in the earlier years, say some 10 per cent, 
 would up to 1825 or 1830 represent the departure from ac- 
 curacy. To this extent and more, allowance must be made 
 in comparing the totals with those of the exports. For the 
 first fifty years the annual amount is the average of quin- 
 quennial periods, after that the actual sums for each year 
 are shown. From 1850 to 1870 the values are ''com- 
 puted," and as already explained they may bo accepted as 
 equivalent to the declared ones in use since the latter date 
 up to the present time.
 
 174 
 
 ON THE TIIUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 Table II. — Showing the Annual Average Amount of Imports of Foreign 
 and Colonial Merchandise retained fur Home u-se, and of Exportn 
 of Produce and Mannfucturcs of the United Kingdom in each quin- 
 quennial period from 181G to 1865, and in each year from thence 
 to 1879, 7vith the Annual Increase per cent, in each successive 
 period. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Year. 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Value. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Value. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 1816 to 1820 
 
 20-66 
 
 26-20 
 
 33-83 
 
 36-53 
 
 47-59 
 
 57-54 
 
 72-92 
 
 89-70 
 
 158-01 
 
 201-18 
 
 245-30 
 
 230-34 
 
 246-60 
 
 248-40 
 
 258-76 
 
 270-51 
 
 296-36 
 
 315-45 
 
 311-99 
 
 315-79 
 
 319-01 
 
 340-96 
 
 316-14 
 
 305-74 
 
 21 
 
 27 
 
 23 
 
 8 
 
 30 
 
 21 
 
 26 
 
 23 
 
 23 
 
 27 
 
 22 
 
 —6 
 
 7 
 
 1 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 10 
 
 6 
 
 — 1 
 
 1 
 
 1 
 
 7 
 
 —7 
 
 —3 
 
 40-31 
 
 37-25 
 
 35-93 
 
 40-46 
 
 50-01 
 
 54-00 
 
 60-89 
 
 88-86 
 
 124-16 
 
 144-40 
 
 188-92 
 
 180-96 
 
 179-68 
 
 189-95 
 
 199-59 
 
 223-07 
 
 256-26 
 
 255-17 
 
 239-56 
 
 223-47 
 
 200-64 
 
 198-89 
 
 192-85 
 
 191-53 
 
 —6 
 
 '21 to '25 
 
 —7 
 
 '26 to '30 
 
 —4 
 
 '31 to '35 
 
 13 
 
 '36 to '40 
 
 24 
 
 '41 to '45 
 
 8 
 
 '46 to '50 
 
 13 
 
 '51 to '55 
 
 46 
 
 '56 to '60 
 
 40 
 
 '61 to '65 
 
 16 
 
 '66 
 
 31 
 
 '67 . . 
 
 4 
 
 '68 
 
 —1 
 
 '69 
 
 6 
 
 70 
 
 5 
 
 '71 
 
 12 
 
 '72 
 
 15 
 
 '73 
 
 
 '74 
 
 —6 
 
 '75 
 
 —7 
 
 '76 
 
 — 10 
 
 '77 
 
 — 1 
 
 '78 
 
 —3 
 
 
 —1 
 
 It will be observed that, as in the former table, there is 
 a progressive increase on both sides of the account, although 
 not in the same ratio as before, the imports advancing far 
 more rapidly up to about 1825 than the exports do. So 
 much so, that on making allowance for deficient import
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 175 
 
 value, the two were nearly equal, and they continued so up 
 to about 1845. From this time, under the influence of free 
 trade, both sides progressed with great rapidity, the im- 
 ports, however, outstripping the exports up to 1870. We 
 had then two years, 1871-2, of excessive exports, since when 
 these have rapidly declined, whilst until the present year 
 the imports continued to increase. 
 
 Bearing in mind that the import values are loaded with 
 charges for freight, &c., which are not paid to the foreigner, 
 and the export values are subject to the like additions 
 accruing before they are paid for, it must be understood that 
 to this extent a difference in the amounts here shown does 
 not actually represent the sum to be paid by this country 
 to its customers. Mr. Newmarch considers that to make the 
 comparison just, the imports must be diminished by five 
 and the exports increased by ten per cent. My own calcu- 
 lations, made upon a different basis, ^ do not when spread 
 over a period embracing the last twenty years, materially 
 diflcr from his, and this close concurrence in results of the 
 two estimates goes far to prove them correct. Both methods 
 would place the amounts for 1872 almost on a level, thus 
 leaving no balance either way. Since then the preponde- 
 rance of imports has been so remarkable as to justify special 
 attention to the calculated figures for the few years preced- 
 ing and succeeding 1872, as having the most important 
 bearing upon questions arising out of the present depressed 
 conditions of trade and manufacture. The actual balances to 
 bo provided for may be thus stated : — 
 
 1872 nil. 
 
 1871 £15,000,000 
 
 1870 34,000,000 
 
 18(!9 ;}0,000.000 
 
 1868 37,000,000 
 
 1867 27,000,000 
 
 18G6 36,000,000 
 
 1873 ,£10,000,000 
 
 1.M74 2ft,000,000 
 
 187o 54,000,000 
 
 1876 83,000,000 
 
 1877 94,000,000 
 
 1878 84,000,000 
 
 To sum up these observations, — From the earliest periods 
 ' "Statistical Journals,'' June, 1877, aud September, 1878.
 
 17G ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WlllCn 
 
 up to about 1825 (growing annually up to 1818, thence de- 
 clining) the exports of home produce largely exceeded the 
 imports of foreign. From 1825 to 1872, although the im- 
 ports exceeded the exports, it was not to an extent difficult 
 to be accounted for. From 1872, when there was again if 
 anything a slight excess of exports, the excess of imports 
 has most rapidly increased, until now it must have reached the 
 sum of £94,000,000 per annum. In the first period we 
 were settling our colonies and cultivating trading relations 
 with the world, and by this means accumulating property 
 abroad. In the second, we were proceeding in the same 
 direction, but also enjoying some of the benefits arising 
 from previous outlay, and at its close reached the height of 
 our manufacturing and trading prosperity. In the third 
 we have been declining from this height, and are now ex- 
 periencing the greatest depression in every branch of com- 
 merce and industry both at home and abroad. The causes, 
 efi'ects, and remedies of and for this state of things deserve 
 the closest investigation, but it may be well previously to 
 see what has been the recent progress of some other nations, 
 selecting for this purpose as representative countries Russia, 
 France, and the United States; extracting from official 
 sources^ the particulars so far as they can be ascertained. 
 It is to be regretted that these tables do not go back farther 
 than the year 1860. The period, however, which they do 
 cover is sufficiently long to present a fair estimate of the 
 recent progress of the trade. 
 
 * " Statistical Abstract for Foreign Countries." Board of Trade, 
 1877-8.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 
 
 177 
 
 Table III. — Imports and Expoi-ts of Mrrchandise into and from the 
 liussiun Empire from 1861 to lh7G, icith the animal increase per 
 cent, of each successive year over its predecessor ; also the balance of 
 Bullion thence exported in each year. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 
 Exports. 
 
 
 
 Imports. 
 
 
 
 
 Year. 
 
 
 
 Merchandise. 
 
 Bullion. 
 
 
 Amount. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Amount. 
 
 Increase 
 jier cent. 
 
 Balance 
 exported. 
 
 1861 
 
 2513 
 
 
 
 27-13 
 
 
 
 1-34 
 
 '62 
 
 2272 
 
 — 10 
 
 27-69 
 
 2 
 
 5-16 
 
 '63 
 
 22-95 
 
 1 
 
 28-68 
 
 4 
 
 9-86 
 
 '64 
 
 25-84 
 
 13 
 
 28-53 
 
 —1 
 
 3-70 
 
 '65 
 
 24-57 
 
 —5 
 
 32-13 
 
 12 
 
 3-21 
 
 '66 
 
 31-00 
 
 26 
 
 33-58 
 
 4 
 
 4 06 
 
 '67 
 
 39-97 
 
 29 
 
 36-13 
 
 8 
 
 —3-05 
 
 '68 
 
 41-31 
 
 4 
 
 35-88 
 
 —1 
 
 — 5-.30 
 
 '69 
 
 5414 
 
 31 
 
 41-87 
 
 17 
 
 2 06 
 
 '70 
 
 5319 
 
 —2 
 
 56-99 
 
 36 
 
 3-35 
 
 '71 
 
 58-35 
 
 10 
 
 58-47 
 
 3 
 
 1-62 
 
 '72 
 
 68-91 
 
 18 
 
 51-78 
 
 —11 
 
 —-81 
 
 '73 
 
 70-14 
 
 2 
 
 57-70 
 
 11 
 
 —•93 
 
 '74 
 
 74-65 
 
 6 
 
 68-37 
 
 19 
 
 •15 
 
 '75 
 
 84-09 
 
 12 
 
 60-47 
 
 — 12 
 
 341 
 
 '76 
 
 75-62 
 
 —10 
 
 63-47 
 
 5 
 
 15-49 
 
 The trade of Russia in common witli that of other coun- 
 tries manifests a continuous increase from year to year. It 
 is not large considering the number of its people, imports 
 and exports together not averaging more than 38/- per 
 head, whereas that of France is 181/-, United States 112/-, 
 and the United Kingdom 382/-, but is increasing moro 
 rapidly than either of these other countries. In the earlier 
 of the years under review, the exports would seem to have 
 exceeded the imports, not however to any great extent even 
 when the bullion and specie are added, for being a gold- 
 producing country, the quantity exported is a source of in- 
 come just the same as any other product ; though in countries 
 like ours it is merely the circulating medium, ebbing and
 
 178 
 
 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 flowing and not properly included in the produce of the 
 country. In recent years, say from 1872, the general im- 
 ports have exceeded the exports, though never more than 
 about ten per cent., which is to be accounted for by the 
 known fact that she is improving her internal resources, 
 especially in starting manufactories 3 although at the same 
 time she has been incurring deVjts abroad, besides the heavy 
 ones rendered necessary to meet the outlay incurred by war. 
 Under these circumstances there is nothing to indicate 
 waning prosperity in the fact that she is buying more than 
 she is selling, laying out her money on the increase of pro- 
 perty. She, but for her wasteful war, her expenditure of 
 money and life, would be a growing and improving country, 
 and even in spite of this is really advancing in manufac- 
 turing and trading progress. 
 
 Table IV. — The like Imports and Exports of Merchandise into and 
 
 from France for each year from 1860 to 1877. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Year. 
 
 Merchandise. 
 
 
 Amount. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Amount. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 1860 
 
 75-89 
 
 97-69 
 
 87-94 
 
 97-06 
 
 101-13 
 
 105-67 
 
 111-74 
 
 121-06 
 
 132-15 
 
 1-26-12 
 
 114-70 
 
 142-67 
 
 142-81 
 
 142-19 
 
 26 
 
 —10 
 
 10 
 
 4 
 
 4 
 
 6 
 
 8 
 
 9 
 
 —5 
 
 —9 
 
 24 
 
 — 1 
 
 1 
 
 13 
 
 —8 
 
 91-08 
 97-05 
 89-71 
 105-70 
 116-97 
 123-54 
 127-22 
 113-04 
 111-60 
 123-00 
 11209 
 114-90 
 150-47 
 151-50 
 148-04 
 154-90 
 143-02 
 137-45 
 
 
 '61 
 
 7 
 
 '62 
 
 — 8 
 
 '63 
 
 18 
 
 '64 
 
 11 
 
 '65 
 
 6 
 
 '66 
 
 3 
 
 '67 
 
 —11 
 
 '68 
 
 
 '69 
 
 10 
 
 '70 
 
 —9 
 
 '71 
 
 2 
 
 '72 
 
 31 
 
 '73 
 
 1 
 
 •74 
 
 '75 
 
 140-31 
 141-47 
 
 —2 
 5 
 
 '76 
 
 159-54 
 146-79 
 
 —8 
 
 '77 
 
 — 4 
 
 
 
 

 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 179 
 
 France is of all tlio European nations, the one of most 
 groTving prosperity. We saw her wealth in the ease with 
 which she provided for the German indemnity and the war 
 expenditure, and in the rapidity with which she is recovering 
 from disasters enough to have paralyzed and destroyed 
 nations even stronger than she. Her trade too is not large, 
 though with a population less than half that of Russia she 
 has double her trade; but exceeding in numbers that of 
 the United Kingdom, her trade is less than half of ours. 
 This she owes in great part to the fact that her soil and 
 climate enable her to produce most of the food and other 
 necessaries she consumes, and that she has not, as we have, to 
 seek her supplies in other countries. External trade is often 
 spoken of as to be valued for its magnitude, forgetting that 
 this altogether depends upon the circumstances of the 
 country carrying it on, since internal trade may render 
 external unnecessary, and yet be every whit as advantageous 
 as the other. Like Russia and England, the excess of ex- 
 ports in the earlier years has given place to a deficiency in 
 the later ones, yet not to an extent to cause any anxiety, 
 seeing that she too has had to repair the losses by war, and 
 will be fully equal to liquidating the external obligations 
 she may have contracted. At present and indeed for some 
 time past she seems to be accumulating bullion largely ; she 
 is sharing in the profits from discounting our mercantile 
 bills ; and, notwithstanding that she does import more than 
 she exports, manifests a steady growth in wealth and 
 power.
 
 180 
 
 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 Table V. — The like Imports and Exports of Merchandise and Bullion 
 into and from the United States for each year {ending 30th June) 
 from I860 to 1878. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Years. 
 
 Merchandise. i 
 
 Bullion. 
 
 
 Amount. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Amount. 
 
 Increase 
 per cent. 
 
 Balance 
 Exported. 
 
 1860 
 
 70-06 
 
 
 
 65-88 
 
 
 
 8-70 
 
 '61 
 
 57-22 
 
 18 
 
 42-69 
 
 —35 
 
 -86 
 
 '62 
 
 37-15 
 
 — 35 
 
 37-43 
 
 —12 
 
 4-25 
 
 '63 
 
 46-85 
 
 26 
 
 38-75 
 
 4 
 
 11-36 
 
 '64 
 
 62-73 
 
 34 
 
 29-90 
 
 —23 
 
 19-22 
 
 '65 
 
 43-69 
 
 — 30 
 
 28-52 
 
 —5 
 
 12-05 
 
 '66 
 
 88-22 
 
 102 
 
 27-60 
 
 — 3 
 
 15-69 
 
 '67 
 
 79-38 
 
 —10 
 
 57-84 
 
 110 
 
 8-08 
 
 '68 
 
 71-85 
 
 —9 
 
 56-12 
 
 —3 
 
 16-58 
 
 '69 
 
 84-70 
 
 18 
 
 57-33 
 
 2 
 
 7-78 
 
 '70 
 
 87-46 
 
 3 
 
 78-46 
 
 37 
 
 6-61 
 
 '71 
 
 105-29 
 
 20 
 
 89-25 
 
 14 
 
 16-07 
 
 '72 
 
 127-27 
 
 21 
 
 89-27 
 
 — 
 
 13-78 
 
 '73 
 
 130-14 
 
 2 
 
 105-22 
 
 18 
 
 13-15 
 
 '74 
 
 114-70 
 
 —12 
 
 118-63 
 
 13 
 
 7-95 
 
 '75 
 
 108-09 
 
 —6 
 
 104-02 
 
 —12 
 
 14-84 
 
 '76 
 
 92-90 
 
 —14 
 
 109-50 
 
 5 
 
 8-45 
 
 '77 
 
 91-34 
 
 —2 
 
 122-85 
 
 12 
 
 3-21 
 
 '78 
 
 88-10 
 
 —4 
 
 141-81 
 
 15 
 
 •32 
 
 Total... 
 
 1587-14 
 
 
 1401-07 
 
 
 188-95 
 
 The United States shows for the earlier years a con- 
 tinuously increasing preponderance of imports, and for the 
 later, a rapidly gromng excess of exports, its trade thus 
 standing in direct contrast to that of the countries this side 
 of the Atlantic. From 1860 to 1873, its purchases must 
 have exceeded its sales by nearly 300 millions, of which not 
 more than the half would have been met by the exports of 
 bulHon. Since that year, in exact opposition to the condi-
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 181 
 
 tion of our own trade, its imports have regularly fallen, and 
 its exports risen in a greater ratio. In 1872, the imports 
 were some 40 millions above the exports (not including 
 bullion), in the twelve months ending last June more than 
 50 millions below them. During the first period she was 
 paying for her imports in bonds, and securities, which wo 
 on this side were ready to take ; and putting her purchases 
 to such good use that now she is able to redeem her obliga- 
 tions, and has already almost if not quite balanced the 
 account, with every prospect of its continuing to be greatly 
 in her favour. But for the exhausting influence of her in- 
 ternal warfare, this change would doubtless have taken place 
 earlier, and been even more complete than it now is. Nothing 
 could more clearly demonstrate the fallacy of supposing 
 that prosperity cannot be the occasion of an excess of 
 exports. The following table of the trade between this 
 country and the United States, affords equally conclusive 
 proof that an excess of imports is not necessarily an evi- 
 dence of the nations' well-beinof.
 
 182 
 
 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 Table VI. — Trade between the United Kingdom and the United States 
 from 18G0 to 1878 [1879 added']. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Imports 
 
 into 
 
 United 
 
 Kingdom. 
 
 Exports to United States. 1 
 
 Excess of 
 Imports 
 into the 
 United 
 
 Kingdom. 
 
 Year. 
 
 British Pro- 
 duce and 
 Manufactures. 
 
 Foreign and 
 
 Colonial 
 Merchandise. 
 
 Total. 
 
 1860 
 
 £ 
 44-73 
 
 £ 
 21-67 
 
 £ 
 1-26 
 
 £ 
 22-91 
 
 £ 
 21-82 
 
 '61 
 
 49-39 
 
 9-07 
 
 1-96 
 
 11-03 
 
 38-36 
 
 '62 
 
 27-72 
 
 14-33 
 
 4-84 
 
 1917 
 
 8-55 
 
 '63 
 
 19-57 
 
 15-35 
 
 4-35 
 
 19-70 
 
 —•13 
 
 '64 
 
 17-92 
 
 16-71 
 
 3-46 
 
 20-17 
 
 —2-25 
 
 '65 
 
 21-62 
 
 21-23 
 
 3-94 
 
 25-17 
 
 — 3-55 
 
 '66 
 
 46-85 
 
 28-50 
 
 3-34 
 
 31-84 
 
 15-01 
 
 '67 
 
 41-05 
 
 21-83 
 
 2-29 
 
 24-12 
 
 16-93 
 
 •68 
 
 43-06 
 
 21-43 
 
 2-37 
 
 23-80 
 
 19-26 
 
 '69 
 
 42-57 
 
 24-62 
 
 2-16 
 
 26-78 
 
 15-79 
 
 '70 
 
 49-80 
 
 28-33 
 
 2-98 
 
 31-31 
 
 18-49 
 
 '71 
 
 61-13 
 
 34-24 
 
 4-45 
 
 38-69 
 
 22-44 
 
 '72 
 
 54-66 
 
 40-74 
 
 5-17 
 
 45-91 
 
 8-75 
 
 '73 
 
 71-47 
 
 33-57 
 
 3-12 
 
 36-70 
 
 34-77 
 
 '74 
 
 73-90 
 
 28-24 
 
 4-00 
 
 32"24 
 
 41-66 
 
 '75 
 
 69-59 
 
 21-86 
 
 3-20 
 
 25-06 
 
 44-53 
 
 '76 
 
 75-90 
 
 16-83 
 
 8-39 
 
 20-22 
 
 55-68 
 
 '77 
 
 77-83 
 
 16-38 
 
 3-51 
 
 19-89 
 
 57-94 
 
 '78 
 
 89-15 
 
 14-55 
 
 2-98 
 
 17-53 
 
 71-62 
 
 
 977-91 
 
 429-48 
 
 62-76 
 
 492-24 
 
 485-67 
 
 1879 
 
 91-84 
 
 20-32 
 
 5-20 
 
 25-52 
 
 66-32 
 
 It will be observed that with the exception of the few- 
 years of the war, there has been a constant growth in our 
 receipts from the United States, and since 1872 an equal decay 
 in the supplies she has required from us. In 1860, we took 
 from thence only twice as much as we sent. During the 
 present year we shall take at least six times the amount 
 she draws from us. It would appear that our purchases 
 from her at the present time actually exceed the amount 
 of hers from the whole world.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 183 
 
 It needs but a cursory examination of the foregoing tables 
 and explanations to show that since 1872 a rapid change 
 has been taking place in the trading condition of the United 
 Kingdom, one so marked as to account for the monetary 
 crisis through which we have been passing, and the finan- 
 cial anxieties Avith which we are at present surrounded. 
 The apparent difference between imports and exports in 
 that year was £10,000,000; in 1877 it was £112,000,000. 
 The real balance to be provided for in settlement of our 
 accounts with the rest of the world was last year some 
 hundred millions of money; in 1872 it was nothing, or 
 some four millions less than nothing. It is not for a 
 moment assumed that we have actually to pay the whole of 
 this sum ; a large portion of it is met by the retention 
 abroad of interests on loans, dividends on shares, earninfrs 
 of civil and military servants, freights in the can'iage of 
 goods, profits on trade, &c. These have been variously 
 estimated at from fifty to a hundred millions per annum — 
 the exact amount it is not possible to obtain, nor with any 
 certainty to assume, but various circumstances concur in 
 placing it nearer to fifty than a hundred. The point for con- 
 sideration, however, is not so much the exact amount as 
 wherein it varies from that which existed in the former 
 year, and it is impossible to believe that there is any diffe- 
 rence at all approaching to the increased demands we have 
 to meet. Many of our creditors have failed to fulfil their 
 engagements ; many companies and speculations have come 
 to grief. The story of the Glasgow Bank shows us how 
 business has been carried on without profit, and altogether 
 it is very doubtful whether, taking all the sources of income 
 accruing abroad together, the supply now applicable to re- 
 mittance homo or retention abroad is as great as it was in 
 1872. 
 
 Beyond this we have positive proof that this country is 
 transferring securities largely to foreign owners, and is not 
 making corrca])ouding investments with the proceeds. 
 This is one reason why the process of payment which has
 
 184 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 been going on has failed to excite observation, — has not 
 until now adversely afifected the foreign exchanges with 
 this country. The war with Turkey, before its outbreak, 
 excited distrust in Russian Bonds, of which some twenty 
 millions are known, and double that value are supposed, to 
 have changed hands from home to foreign owners. Every 
 mail from America tells of remittances in her Bonds from 
 this country, and some fifty millions of these, formerly held 
 here, are now possessed on the other side of the Atlantic. The 
 Bank of France, and discount houses in Paris, Frankfort, 
 Berlin, Vienna, and Holland compete with our own money- 
 lenders for the discount of mercantile bills and our own 
 Treasury notes. A very competent authority considers 
 that the amount of British paper in foreign portfolios at the 
 present moment cannot be less than thirty millions of 
 pounds, and that five years back five millions would have 
 more than covered the whole. The German Government is 
 known to have considerable sums deposited in England, to 
 meet its contemplated purchase of gold, and there is reason 
 to believe that foreign holdings in the English Funds and 
 various stocks have been greatly added to. 
 
 Now, what is all this but an actual transferral of capital 
 from this country to America and Europe, not as in the 
 days when we were contracting foreign loans, and support- 
 ing foreign enterprises, but in exchange for the excess of 
 imports we are drawing from foreign sources ? This is 
 clearly shown by the difi"erence in the value of money in 
 London and, for instance, in Paris. It would never pay to 
 send money from here, where it cannot be obtained at less 
 than six per cent., to there, where it is only worth three ; 
 but it does pay to send securities instead of money. This 
 is the very object which the Bank of England seeks to 
 effect by its high rate — for there is no competition for 
 money for home use which could send it up — to prevent 
 gold being sent abroad, as it otherAvise must, to pay for the 
 goods we import. And this process must go on until 
 relief is obtained. The high rate for money here lowers
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 185 
 
 the price of stocks and shares, until it suits the purpose of 
 foreign holders to buy back their own, or to purchase ours. 
 But the inevitable result is a diminution of capital in 
 English hands, a lessening of the indebtedness of the 
 world to this country, and a permanent loss on the income 
 arising from our foreign holdings. It must be admitted 
 that this coincides with a period in which imports largely 
 preponderate. Is it untrue to assert that it is the natural 
 result of such preponderance, and therefore affords proof 
 that an adverse balance of trade is not always to be deemed 
 a sign of prosperity ? 
 
 If now we turn to the United States what do we find 
 there ? A state of things exactly opposed in this respect 
 to that which is existing here. Money is not plentiful, 
 because in times past she contracted obligations which she 
 is now discharging ; trade may not be prosperous because 
 it is contracted, and prices are low — manufactures are not 
 profitable because they are forced, in opposition to the 
 principles of fi'ce trade — of this more hereafter, but amidst 
 it all she is buying back her bonds with the excess of her 
 exports. Just as England is diminishing her monetai'y 
 claims upon the world, so America is diminishing her in- 
 debtedness to the mother country. It is somewhat 
 curious to note, without saying that they are the counter- 
 part of each other, that the fifty millions which we may bo 
 supposed to be parting with is just about the difference 
 between our imports from, and exports to America. 
 
 England, it may be believed, is in the position of a 
 capitalist, who, having invested his money on mortgages 
 upon the shops and plant of his butcher and baker, and 
 finding his annual outlay increasing whilst his income is at 
 the same time lessening, cancels his Christmas bills for 
 meat and bread by writing off portions of the mortgage 
 debt. The United States is the butcher and baker who, 
 gaining more than she wants to spend, is glad to lessen 
 the incumbrances on her properties. The capitalist may 
 thus retain a good balance at his bankers, the tradesmen
 
 186 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 may still have overdrawn accounts, but the one is inevitably 
 growing poorer, the others are surely gaining in wealth. 
 Here again an excess of exports is no token of adversity. 
 
 But we must pursue this question a step farther. Even 
 though it be true that all this monetary derangement and 
 interchange of property and indebtedness result from the 
 state of our imports and exports, these conditions of trade 
 and manufacture are not the causes but only the effects of 
 something more real and lasting which it is of paramount 
 importance to us to discover. The balance of trade in any 
 country may be the result of growth or decay in either 
 imports or exports, or of an opposite condition in the one 
 and the other existing at the same time. With the trade 
 of the United Kingdom there was from 1872 until the 
 present year, when both are decreasing, a constantly in- 
 creasing amount of arrivals inwards and a like decrease of 
 departures outwards, intensifying the evil, if such it be, and 
 rapidly swelling the adverse balance. As the causes of 
 this double movement were totally diverse, each requires 
 its own consideration. To go fully into the question would 
 require larger space than it is possible now to occupy, but 
 the main causes may be briefly stated as an increased con- 
 sumption of food at home, and a decreased or at least 
 stationary use of our manufactures abroad. 
 
 The natural growth of population has something to do 
 with the increased importations of food, but is not the sole 
 or principal cause, for as was shown in a paper on this 
 special subject, which I had the honour of reading on a 
 former occasion,^ in the ten years 1867-76 the addition 
 to the population was barely nine per cent. — while the con- 
 sumption of food (including alcoholic and other beverages 
 and tobacco), was fifty-eight per cent, on the value; in 
 1877 it was fully seventeen per cent, more, and if there be 
 any falling-off for this year, it will be in price only, and not 
 in quantity. It is not meant by this that the average con- 
 sumption of food per head has increased in this degree, for 
 ^ "Transactions Manclicster Statistical Society,' 1877. Pp. 156-181.
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 187 
 
 our home produce having remained stationary, the fresh 
 mouths would have to be fed entirely from foreign supplies, 
 which would likewise have to bear the charge of better 
 quality as well as of quantity. During the same ten years 
 the increase of raw materials for manufacture, both for 
 home use and foreign sale, had only risen nineteen per cent. 
 It cannot be questioned that there was great room for 
 improvement in the quantity and character of the food 
 supplies for our labouring population, and that even now a 
 better supply of wholesale nutriment for many would be a 
 decided gain in the health and strength which it would 
 yield; but it may bo doubted whether the change has been 
 in all respects necessary or advantageous, whether there 
 haTS not been too much, especially in drink and tobacco, 
 which has brought evils with it other than the great in- 
 crease of expenditure it has occasioned, an expenditure far 
 beyond the increase in productive power by which it has 
 been accompanied. Nor have the evils been confined to 
 the lower classes, those of the middle and upper have in a 
 far greater degree adopted a style of living, which in ad- 
 dition to the direct cost for articles of consumption, has 
 also absorbed the labour of many consumers besides, and 
 thus both enhanced the cost, and lessened the quantity of 
 the disposable products of that labour. The higher wages 
 granted to the labouring class, higher not only in nominal 
 amount, but also in the hours' service for which they have 
 been given, combined with the power of lavish expenditure 
 the higher classes have attained, have been very far from 
 unmixed blessings, since to them in a great degree must be 
 attributed the inconvenient increase of our imports. The 
 nation altogether has been living too fast. 
 
 On the other hand the very prosperity which has for a 
 time furnished the means of undue expenditure, has in 
 several ways led to the loss of the power to continue it. 
 It has increased the cost of labour, thus neutralizing the 
 advantages of labour-saving machinery ; it has led to an 
 extension of means of production at a greater pace than our
 
 188 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 foreign customers have been disposed to advance, and it ' 
 has stimulated other nations to compete with us in pro- 
 ducing for their own necessities and the markets of the 
 world. Hence the prices of our manufactures have fallen 
 below those which yield a profit, and in many branches 
 of industry the quantities taken from us are greatly 
 reduced. 
 
 Now this is just what we as a nation cannot possibly 
 afford. Our country only grows half the food which our 
 people consume, and therefore for our continued existence 
 it is absolutely essential that we should produce some- 
 thing else wherewith we may purchase or take in exchange 
 from other nations the food we cannot, or do not raise for 
 ourselves. Herein again we stand in decided contrast to 
 the United States, she grows more food than she can con- 
 sume. Were she blockaded or shut out from access to the 
 products of other nations, the prices of provisions would 
 fall, and her people might be all of them better fed than 
 even now they are. Were England isolated, the cost of 
 everything would rapidly rise, and so soon as the accumu- 
 lated stores were exhausted half her inhabitants would 
 starve. Again, we may say that the necessity which 
 compels imports to exceed exports is the very reverse of 
 prosperity ; the ability which permits exports to exceed 
 imports is an exactly opposite condition to one of ad- 
 versity. 
 
 If, then, these be truths, and that they are so it seems im- 
 possible to deny, is it wise to hide them from view, or to 
 cavil as some do at those who strive to invite public atten- 
 tion to their existence ? Like the ostrich who hides her head 
 in the sand, we may fancy that they are best put out of 
 sight, but the very attempt to deny their existence only 
 serves to magnify their importance to others, and to arrest 
 remedial attempts by ourselves. The patient who will not 
 admit that he is ailing, and the physician who ignores the 
 fact that his disorder is serious, are alike answerable if 
 recovery is protracted or rendered impossible, whilst those
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 189 
 
 who are not afraid to acknowledge the presence of disease, 
 and boldly adopt the most likely measures for restoration, 
 are those who also manifest the greatest confidence in the 
 strength of the sufferer's constitution, and thus help best 
 to maintain it unimpaired. We believe that England is 
 seriously sick, but by no means irrecoverably so. Let us 
 then consider what are the steps to be taken for her preser- 
 vation and the renewal of her vigour. 
 
 Considering the important bearing which a right under- 
 standing of this question must have upon the measures 
 necessary for the preservation or restoration of our national 
 life and prosperity, it is not surprising that some thoughtful 
 minds have been driven to a consideration of the best means 
 for the attainment of these objects. Rather, is it to be 
 wondered at that so few appear to think it of due impor- 
 tance or are disposed to see that a very decided course of 
 action is needed. It would seem as though the influx of 
 prosperity in former years had so intoxicated all those who 
 were drinking in its copious draughts that they could not 
 dream of reverses or listen with patience to any who raised 
 the voice of warning. Even now there are those who deem 
 the present depression a thing of passing note, and who 
 look to a revival of confidence, the settlement of the Eastern 
 question, or the briskness of a war, as destined to restore 
 trade and encourage manufactures to an extent beyond any 
 former experience. It may be that some sudden and unex- 
 pected events will arise to dissipate our fears and restore 
 prosperity ; but true wisdom would dictate a recourse to 
 such remedies as it may be possible to discover and apply. 
 Before, however, suggesting anything in this direction it 
 may be well to allude to a few of the plans which have been 
 suggested, especially to the three methods which find favour 
 with many, viz., reciprocity, protection, and the curtail- 
 ment of production. 
 
 Wherein the adoption of reciprocity consists has never 
 been distinctly stated, but it may bo taken to mean either 
 the removal of some duties or restrictions on our part, in
 
 190 ON THE TRUE RELATIOX IX WHICH 
 
 response to the abandonment by other countries of those 
 which restrict our trade — or the imposition by us of duties 
 or prohibitions in retaliation for those which most impede 
 our trade already — in other words, a system of " limited 
 protection." The first of these plans was that on which 
 Mr. Cobden acted in the treaty he negotiated with France ; 
 but apart from any question as to the soundness of such a 
 policy, it would seem that the wholesale removal of all hin- 
 drances to foreign trade with us, which took place years 
 ago, has left us little or nothing to offer in exchange for 
 such privileges as other countries might be induced to offer. 
 All the Customs duties which we levy are imposed strictly 
 for revenue purposes. Those upon alcoholic liquors fall quite 
 as heavily on home production, and their diminution would 
 entail a loss to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, which no 
 increase of consumption could repay. Any advantage which 
 a freer exchange of these commodities from abroad for home 
 manufactures might procure, would certainly be purchased 
 at a cost to health and morality which no philanthropist 
 could possibly desire. The same may be said of tobacco ; 
 and as regards tea, coffee, and cocoa, the increased trade 
 which a remission of these duties would bring would be 
 wholly insufficient, for many years to come, to compensate for 
 the additional taxation which would have to be imposed on 
 our own people. The I'e-enactment of the former, or the 
 imposition of fresh duties, would in nowise differ from " pro- 
 tection,'' and as such must be approved or condemned. 
 
 A recurrence to '' protection " has many advocates in the 
 present day, and there is no little reason to fear that the 
 specious arguments by which it is supported may meet with 
 such acceptance as to induce an attempt to reverse the free 
 trade policy under which we have had so many years of 
 prosperity. It is useless to contend that the protective 
 policy of other countries — notably that of America — does 
 not in fact most materially injure our trade and restrict our 
 manufacturing industry, but its success in promoting the 
 welfare of the counti-iea in which it is adopted is not so
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 191 
 
 marked, as to ofiFer any inducements for its restoration in 
 ours. Even the protected industries abroad are few of them 
 in a prosperous condition, and whatever prosperity they do 
 enjoy is at the expense of the other members of their own 
 communities. It is true that France injures our sugar 
 refiners, but the injury is paid for by the consumers in her 
 own country. The United States, by protective duties on 
 our iron and cottons, deprives our home workers of the 
 employment they might obtain ; but the growers of wheat 
 and the feeders of stock there are doubly losers, from 
 the enhanced price they pay for the articles they buy, and 
 the loss of sale for the articles which they might exchange 
 for our manufactures. When we slacken — as we must do 
 before long — in the demand we make upon their agricul- 
 tural produce, her farmers will learn that they have much 
 to gain from us, both as purchasers of their produce and 
 sellers of the goods we can produce cheaper than their own 
 manufacturers. At present both France and America can 
 afford to be protectionists, because they have within them- 
 selves all that is necessary for existence. England cannot 
 afford to be so, because she is dependent upon other lands 
 for a large portion of her daily supplies of food, and for 
 these she can only make payment in the produce and manu- 
 factures she can sell. 
 
 Let us see how protective duties if imposed on imports 
 from abroad would work. There is no denying that such 
 as wore levied on articles which we ourselves manufacture 
 would enhance the cost of importation, and so the price of 
 those made at home. The first effect of this would be to 
 restore and quicken extinct or languishing industries here, 
 and so far as these were in articles of luxury no harm would 
 bo done to the purchasers, although possibly it would 
 restrict the sale and so soon defeat its own ends. But with 
 articles of necessity for the labouring class any increase in 
 price would really be ultimately paid in the liiglier wages 
 they would have to receive. If duties were levied on 
 articles of food, the same beneficial effect would at the out-
 
 192 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 set be experienced by the growers at home. But this would 
 in like manner raise the wages of those who manufacture for 
 foreign markets, and thus still farther enhance the cost of 
 those things in which we have to compete with foreign pro- 
 ducers. Few persons seem to be aware how small an 
 amount of manufactured goods for home use are supplied by 
 foreign competitors when compared with the large amount 
 of others which we manufacture for sale abroad. Of imports 
 to the value of £319 millions in 1876, only £41 millions 
 were manufactured goods ; whilst of our own produce, the 
 cost of which must be enhanced if protection be restored, 
 we exported £200 millions. Now, supposing the half of 
 the £41 millions were articles of the kind which enter into 
 competition for home use with those we manufacture for 
 ourselves, any benefit accruing from protection would only 
 affect a value one-tenth of that on which suffering would be 
 inflicted. Competition with foreigners in our own markets, 
 however seriously it may affect many branches of our in- 
 dustry, is insignificant when compared with competition in 
 foreign markets, where protection would not possibly benefit 
 us at all, but must assuredly be of serious injury. We must 
 have food for our population. We can only pay for that food 
 by the products of our industry. Our present difficulty is that 
 we cannot sell sufficient of these to meet our payments for 
 food, and that difficulty protection would inevitably enhance. 
 The third of these supposed corrections — that of curtail- 
 ing production by running short time — is the least likely 
 of all to lead to a satisfactory result. Had we been wise 
 enough when the demand was greatest to see that it would 
 not go on increasing, and have abstained from extending 
 the means of production, the suffei"ing caused by its stop- 
 page would have been less than it now is. But having 
 sunk our mines, erected our mills and furnaces, and gathered 
 together the labourers to work them ; to lessen their pro- 
 ductiveness now would be to increase the cost of their pro- 
 duce. Could we indeed turn part of the plant to other 
 purposes, and employ the workers in other pursuitSj the
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 103 
 
 romainder might still go on producing at a limited cost ; but 
 to sacrifice capital and labour by partial idleness, whilst the 
 interest of money and the support of the labourers must 
 necessarily continue, would encourage the rivalry of com- 
 petitors abroad, whose chief advantage already lies in the 
 cheapness with which they are able to manufacture. If 
 we possessed a monopoly in the production of any article 
 of necessary but limited use, the lessening of stocks at 
 home might enable us to raise the pi-ico ; but when other 
 nations make as well as we, and are prepared to go on 
 making, prices would be little affected by our ceasing to 
 produce in the same quantity ; and in the end those who 
 made the most and the cheapest would be sure to secure 
 what custom was to be had. Inability to continue produc- 
 ing, and the abandonment of the manufacture by some, 
 would doubtless be to the advantage of those who hold on, 
 but the national loss from the sacrifice would be the same 
 whether centred in few or distributed among many. The 
 true policy would seem to be to abstain from adding to the 
 means of production, but at the same time to employ those 
 at present in existence to their utmost capacity for good and 
 cheap manufacture. With the hearty co-operation of all 
 concerned, a quiet endurance of the consequent privation, and 
 a patient waiting for better times, we ought to be able to 
 maintain our supremacy in those industries of which we 
 have so long been masters, and to beat all others in the 
 neutral markets of the world. 
 
 These observations have extended to an altogether unin- 
 tended length, and but little space remains for further re- 
 mark. Yet the subject must not be left shrouded in tho 
 gloom of tho picture they present, mthout at least an 
 attempt to illumine it with some rays of hope. It cannot 
 bo that the enterprise, the skill, and the industry which 
 have created tho position to which wo have i*eaclied, will 
 fail us in the present time of distress. These national 
 attributes will, if still maintained and rightly exercised, 
 sustain and guide us until tho darkness shall pass away, and 
 
 o
 
 1!)4 ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 tho sunaliino of prosperity again overspread the land. Bub 
 before that can happen we have much patient endurance and 
 active exertion to pass through. It will no longer do to 
 act upon the maxim — " Take care of the imports and let the 
 exports care for themselves." This did well enough when 
 tho world was pressing upon us to supply its wants — not 
 now, when we have to press our wares upon tho world. 
 
 The first effort we have to make is one that scarcely needs 
 to be suggested, for it will be forced upon us by stern ne- 
 cessity. Shortened wages for the labouring classes, and 
 too often the absence of any wages at all, will enforce 
 economy in the use of the necessaries of life, and entire ab- 
 stinence from many of the luxuries and enjoyments which 
 have gone far to swell the amount of our imports. Dimi- 
 nished profits in trade and want of employment for many 
 will teach the same lesson to the middle-classes, whilst 
 failing incomes and smaller returns for the use of capital 
 will place the upper ranks in a similar position of necessity. 
 Thus shall we lessen the payments we have to make for our 
 imports, and also reduce the price of many articles of con- 
 sumption for which, under the influence of extravagant ex- 
 penditure, we have raised the charges to an unwarrantable 
 height. It will also be impossible to maintain the shortened 
 hours of service which have been introduced into many 
 employments, or to be satisfied with the insufficient amount 
 of work performed in the hours thus shortened. 
 
 There is the unavoidable evil attendant upon all measures 
 of retrenchment, and the concentration of labour amongst 
 fewer hands, that they throw many persons in all ranks out 
 of employment, and also bring many to seek for profitable 
 occupation of their time who have heretofore had little to 
 think of but spending time, money and strength in the 
 mere enjoyment of life. This consideration brings us face 
 to face with the special conditions which have had more to 
 do in producing the present state of affairs than any other 
 cause of which we know. 
 
 Productive labour and capital have been over-weighted
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 195 
 
 ^vith tlio unproductive members of the community, whom 
 they have had to support. We have had too few producers 
 and too many consumers. In the lower ranks of life this 
 has led to the diffusion of work over too largo a space of 
 time, or the abstraction of too many days for enjoyment or 
 relaxation, rather than to the entire idleness of many indi- 
 viduals. In the ranks of tradesmen, men of business, and 
 professional men, and their assistants or servants, it has 
 manifested itself in the crowding of too many into the diffe- 
 rent occupations, and the unnecessary multiplication of em- 
 ployments. Competition, so far as it stimulates industry 
 and develops skill, or the talents which produce something 
 that shall add to the general stock, is highly beneficial ; 
 but competition which has for its object the obtaining the 
 largest share of that which has been already produced is 
 baneful in the extreme. Now this, in truth, has been the 
 curse of our land. Is there any article of consumption to 
 be sold, two shops for its sale are opened where one would 
 suffice ; extravagant adornment and show are resorted to, 
 to tempt customers from one to the other. Traveller after 
 traveller waits upon the shopkeeper to gain orders for the 
 manufacturer or importer ; advertisements, placards, mes- 
 sengers are all employed to induce support to each of the 
 rivals. The wholesale producer expends upon making his 
 wares attractive, rather than good ; upon outwitting his 
 rivals in trade, or satisfying the fancies of the consumer, 
 rather than meeting his legitimate wants. Is a railway to 
 be made, or some public undertaking to be started ? pro- 
 moters, stockbrokers, solicitors, secretaries, fii*st ; then 
 landowners, contractors, manufacturers, all rush to the front 
 endeavouring to secure the greatest share of the money to 
 be expended, rather than to diminish the outlay by tho 
 shareholders. Is a public office to be filled or a charity 
 to be bestowed ? a crowd of competitors waste their time in 
 struggling who shall obtain the prize. Thus has it come 
 to pass that the cost of everything has been swelled, the 
 expense of division increased, until the difference between
 
 lOG ON THE TRUE RELATION IN WHICH 
 
 the outlay, whether of time or money, on the first produc- 
 tion, has been far below what it ought to have been from 
 the price paid by the ultimate consumer or person who has 
 enjoyed the benefit. Notwithstanding all our contrivances 
 for saving labour, all our intense devotion to business, all 
 our exercise of skill, scarce any object is attained or accom- 
 plished which has not occasioned greater outlay between its 
 first and final stages than was really needed. Too many 
 hands have been employed upon it, to each of which it has 
 paid toll rather than received help, and a feeling has per- 
 vaded a large portion of all classes of society that they were 
 to subsist upon appropriating that which others had pro- 
 duced, rather than that which their own efforts had created. 
 There is everywhere a superabundance of producing power 
 which needs to find employment. Its wasteful expenditure 
 has had much to do with enhancing the cost or lessening the 
 produce of our exports, and thus in diminishing rather than 
 enlarging our foreign trade. This might be borne so long 
 as we were increasing in exports, for its weight fell largely 
 upon the foreign consumer — but with rivals running us so 
 closely in the race, he will no longer consent to help us in 
 bearing it. 
 
 In the previous tables (I. and II.) the trade shown is 
 that of the United Kingdom, not only with foreign countries, 
 but also with her colonies, which are there classified with 
 foreigners, in both the imports and exports. Had the 
 Colonies been left out, the balance would have been greater, 
 for the traffic between us and them is more nearly balanced 
 than it is with other places. Take for instance the year 
 1877, of £394 millions gross imports, £305 were from 
 foreign countries, and £89 from British possessions, and of 
 exports to the extent of £252 millions, the amounts were 
 respectively £176 and £75. The excess of the former being 
 at the rate of 72 per cent, in the one case and 18 in the other, 
 showino- how much better customers are our own kindred 
 
 O 
 
 than foreigners. Had we gone a step further and shown 
 not the trade of the United Kingdom, but that of the
 
 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS SHOULD STAND. 197 
 
 British Empire, including with our own all the regions 
 which go to make up that miglity whole, the total figures 
 would have been much larger, but the balance not very 
 different. But in truth when speaking of our own country 
 we ought not to confine our thoughts simply to the two 
 islands of Great Britain and Ireland — rather extend them 
 to all the continents and islands which own our Sovereign's 
 sway. Geographically they may be distant from us, but 
 with steam and telegraphic communication they are really 
 more closely connected with us than the remote parts of 
 Scotland and Ireland were in the last century. So are 
 they in heart and soul, at least those who are of the same 
 blood. The tendency of all our efforts ought to be to bind 
 together mother and children more firmly than they have 
 ever been before ; and if wo mistake not herein is to be 
 found the only solid and lasting relief from the depression 
 and anxiety we now experience. Economy in the con- 
 sumption of our imports and in the production of our 
 exports will do much to prevent the outflow of capital. The 
 revival of a demand for our manufactures by our old and 
 present customers may do still more. Somewhat better 
 prices for the goods we sell, without a corresponding in- 
 crease in those we pay, it may not bo unreasonable to 
 expect, and we may naturally look for new markets to spring 
 up amongst the people not yet civilized enough to manu- 
 facture for themselves ; but it is futile to expect that the 
 mining and manufacturing industries brought into existence 
 in other countries will be destroyed — and we must antici- 
 pate that every year ^vill strengthen their efforts to pro\'ide 
 for their own wants. All that we may hope for is that they 
 will learn the folly of fettering industry by protective duties 
 and bounties, and recognize the truth that in promoting the 
 interests of mankind at large, by removing all restrictions 
 or regulations which prevent each country making the most 
 of its natural advantages, they Tvill in fact bo most advancing 
 tlicir own welfare. Yet economy in the use of our sub- 
 stance, and therefore in the labour which creates it, together
 
 198 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS. 
 
 with the better preservation of existing life and its natural 
 multiplication, will sooner or later force large numbers to 
 seek new homes. We must biidge over the intervening 
 seas, and extend our borders till we fill the territories which 
 are placed in our charge. We hear much in these times of 
 over-production — there is one branch of it we have never 
 fully tried — that is the over-production of consumers for 
 our products. Yet every life which is sacrificed by crowded 
 dwellings, by neglect of sanitary laws, by the consumption 
 of intoxicating liquors, by insufiicient food, by actual starva- 
 tion, might and ought to be made a source of wealth. The 
 Registrar-General estimates the average money value of 
 each labourer's life, that is, the difi'erence between the 
 wages he may earn and the cost of his sustenance between 
 birth and death, at £150, and that of every man, woman, and 
 child at £159; and it would be difficult to impugn the 
 accuracy of Dr. Farr's calculations. My own researches, as 
 detailed last year to the British Association,^ seem to prove 
 that even at present the productive power of one is able to 
 support eight ; and since the producer has an average of but 
 three persons to provide for, there must be at least one-half 
 free for luxury, enjoyment, or the cultivation of higher 
 pursuits. There is surely something very wrong in the ad- 
 ministration of afiairs which permits the want of food here, 
 and the want of food-producers elsewhere. The coming 
 leader of the State vnW have a problem to solve of far higher 
 moment than the support of dynasties, the maintenance of 
 the balance of power, the rectification of frontiers, however 
 important these may be. He must find out how to feed the 
 people at home, how to people our possessions abroad. 
 The man who shall thus rectify this balance of trade and of 
 population, will be the greatest benefactor with which 
 England, her colonies, and possessions, the united British 
 Empire, has ever been blessed. 
 
 ^ " Keport of British Association, Plymouth," 1878.
 
 X. 
 
 On Some Phases of tue Silver Qdestion.' 
 
 IT is with much difEdenco that I approach the very 
 difficult question which stands for discussion on the 
 present occasion. At other times when it has been my lot 
 either to introduce or take part in the subject of debate, 
 the matters under consideration have generally been thoso 
 upon which official expei'ience had qualified mo for the 
 expression of opinions that might bo held with some con- 
 fidence ; and though thoso opinions have sometimes been 
 at variance with generally received views, the course of 
 events has shown them to have been of some value in 
 directing the course of inquiry, and eliciting information 
 on topics of great national importance. In the present 
 instance the inducement to investigate the question has 
 been the belief that it was fitting that this Society should 
 discuss it, that coming to the inquiry without any pre- 
 conceived notions or special theory to support, and bring- 
 ing to bear upon it the habit of careful observation and 
 comparison, it might be possible for mo to bring together 
 facts and figures such as might serve to call forth tho 
 knowledge and experience of thoso whoso judgment on the 
 various points at issue would bo of greater value than my 
 own. Assured that whatever may bo adduced will meet 
 with kind attention, I shall feel happy if the effort now to 
 be made should succeed in throwing any light on tho sub- 
 
 ' Kead before tlie Stiitisticul Society, 1st April, Is:*). Jouriuil, 
 Vol. xlii.
 
 200 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 joct^ or of drawing out the intelligent thoughts of those to 
 whom it has been an object of interest or study. In thus 
 doing I must disclaim any intention of taking a compre- 
 honsivo grasp of that which in all its bearings and results 
 is too wide for me to attempt^ and I have therefore limited 
 the title of this paper to that of " Some Phases of the Silver 
 Question." 
 
 I. — Connection of Gold with Silver. 
 
 It is obviously impossible to treat of silver apart from 
 gold. The two metals have in common not only that they 
 belong to the same class^ and as articles of consumption 
 subserve much the same purposes ; but that they have by 
 universal consent been selected for use as a medium of 
 exchange — the representatives of value for other articles — 
 and thus as money have an employment distinct from all 
 other substances (excepting the limited use of copper or 
 bronze as coins). In our country when we speak of the 
 depreciation of silver, we mean that a definite weight of it 
 will pass in exchange for a lesser weight of gold than it 
 did ; that the pound sterling will purchase more of it than 
 was formerly the case — that is, that an alteration has taken 
 place in the relative value which it and gold bear to each 
 other. That whereas in July, 1859, when the highest 
 price was reached, 62^d. per standard ounce, 15 grs. of 
 pure silver were exchangeable for i gr. of pure gold ; in 
 the same month of 1876, when it fell as low as 46|f?., it 
 took 20 grs. of the former to purchase one of the latter, 
 the extreme fall being 25^ per cent. Practically, how- 
 ever, we have to deal with a fall from 6oid. — the average 
 for 1871, and also for the whole period from 1833 to 1871 
 — to 49|(Z., the average pi'ice of the last eight weeks, being 
 a depreciation in value as compared with gold to the extent 
 of 1 8 per cent. 
 
 We are so accustomed to speak and think of gold as 
 having a fixed value because a certain weight of it, stamped
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 201 
 
 with tlic Queen's image and named a sovereign, is the legal 
 and tangible representative of the pound sterling in which 
 all our contracts or engagements are expressed, that wo 
 forget that gold too varies in price. For unless we have 
 it in possession we can only obtain it by parting with some- 
 thing else we possess, or promising to pay so many pounds 
 for it at some future time, and to thus obtain it wo must 
 accept the purchasers' terms for the goods, or the promise, 
 we choose to sell. Whenever we try thus to sell, we find 
 that the number of sovereigns to bo received varies with 
 the current value of other articles or the rate of interest on 
 loans. Thus gold measured with other standards alters its 
 relative worth, and it is always difficult to say whether the 
 variation is in the gold or the article, or in both together. 
 The only real fixture in value is the pound sterling, which, 
 though in itself an imaginary standard, becomes a very real 
 one when practically applied.^ Now there can be no doubt 
 that for many years succeeding the gold discoveries in 
 California and Australia the purchasing power of the 
 sovereign became lessened — gold was said, and truly so, to 
 bo depreciated in value ; now again the purchasing power 
 of the sovereign is rising, and gold is said to be undergoing 
 an appreciation. That is, it goes further in the purchase 
 of articles, though not in the payment of debts ; but 
 whether this is due to the increased value of gold in itself, 
 or to a decrease of value in the articles it procures, is a 
 point not easy to determine, and yet in relation to silver it 
 is one of vital moment. It may bo remarked hero, though 
 this point must bo treated afterwards, that dui-ing the whulo 
 course of the plcntifulness of gold, silver never varied more 
 than from 58^(?. per oz. in May, 181-5 (the lowest point 
 imtil recently), to Gild, in July, 1859, a range oi 6i per 
 cent, as opposed to the present fall of 1 8 per cent. 
 
 The arguments on which this assumed appreciation of 
 gold is stated to rest, are: Ist, That the production being 
 diminished, it becomes scarcer, and therefore mu.st increase 
 ' See "PoslscTipt," p. •2-i7.
 
 202 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 in value. 2nd, That there is so general a fall in prices as 
 could only have arisen from the gold with which they aro 
 paid having actually become more valuable. A little 
 inquiry into the accuracy of these views is absolutely neces- 
 sary before we can consider the relative worth of silver and 
 gold. Let us first of all see what are the actual facts as to 
 the quantity of gold in circulation, and the work it has to 
 perform. It will scarcely be contended that so far as our 
 home trade is concerned, there is any want of sovereigns 
 for all the transactions of daily life. If there be scarcity it 
 must be found in impediments to the discharge of inter- 
 national obligations, or the conduct of the larger operations 
 of home trade ; and in neither of these does the difficulty 
 seem to exist. 
 
 II. — Relation of Production and Quantity of Precious Metals 
 to State of Trade. 
 
 There would seem to be the greatest difficulty in obtain- 
 ing any estimate of the total quantity of the precious metals 
 in existence, either at the present or any former period. 
 As regards the production since 1849 or 1852, there is not 
 much difference of opinion. Messrs. Tookeand Newmarch, 
 followed by the '^ Economist,'^ consider that between the 
 former year and 1875 the workVs production of gold has 
 been £573,652,000; whilst Sir Hector Hay ^ gives 
 £572,195,000 from 1852, and during the same period 
 £241,890,000 of silver, together £814,085,000. The 
 same authorities would set down the consumption in the 
 arts and manufactures and wear and tear of coin at about 
 £2,000,000 per annum of each metal; thus if we accept 
 either estimate, leaving something more than 500 million 
 pounds sterling to have been added to the stock of gold, 
 and something less than 200 millions to that of silver. 
 Prior to 1849 it is supposed by Tooke and Newmarch that 
 
 ^ II. C. Com. on Depreciation of Silver, 1876.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 203 
 
 560 millions' wortli of gold was in existence — about an 
 equal quantity to that since produced. If so, there must 
 at the present time be more than I^IOO millions diflfused 
 amongst the various countries in which it is used. 
 Mr. Scyd's ^ opinion is that in 1849 there was about 400 
 millions, that 500 was raised between that year and 1875, 
 but only 350 millions of this was added to stock, the 
 difference having been absorbed in various uses ; so that 
 tliei'e was then but 750 millions in circulation, which, 
 brought down to this year, would be about 800 millions 
 only. Thus both estimates assume that there is now, as 
 near as may be, double the quantity there was thirty years 
 ago. Our concern, however, is not so much with the 
 actual amount, as the rate at which it has increased, and 
 the necessity or opportunity for its employment has arisen. 
 These are points on which great diversity of opinion is sure 
 to be found, and anything like certainty is scarcely to be 
 expected ; but in the following table I have endeavoured 
 to place in juxtaposition some information which may 
 help towards the formation of a tolerably accurate judg- 
 ment. 
 
 The first section sets forth the assumed production of 
 both gold and silver since 1849. It is taken from the 
 Appendix to the Report of the House of Commons Com- 
 mittee on the depreciation of silver, and, excepting for the 
 first and last three years, the figures are those given by Sir 
 Hector Hay.^ Our present purpose is with gold alone. 
 During the first twelve years, that is up to and including 
 18(30, the amount is 278 millions ; deducting 24 millions as 
 used up, and adding the remainder to the 5 60 in existence 
 prior to 1849, it maybe assumed that 814 millions were 
 available for circulation as coin or in bullion in 1860. 
 
 ' Committee of House of Commons Report. 
 
 ^ Tlie lifjurcs from 1870 onwards arc altered from those originally 
 read, Sir II. Ilay havinj^ kindly supplied them with the latest correc- 
 tions, so that the whole of the series, 1852-78, now rests upon the same 
 authority. Other estimates for recent rears are somewhat hicher.
 
 204 
 
 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 TAnLK I. — Shoimng the Estimated Production of Gold and Silver in each 
 Year from 1849 to 1877; with the Imports and Exports of Bullion 
 and Coin, as well as Merchandise, into and from the Principal 
 Countries, since 1860. 
 
 [In million £'8 to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Production 
 of Precious Metals. 
 
 Bull 
 
 ion and Coin. 
 
 Merchandise 
 
 
 Year. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Gold. 
 
 Silver. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Total. 
 
 1849 .. 
 
 5 '42 
 
 8-12 
 
 I3"54 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 _ 
 
 — 
 
 '50 .. 
 
 S-Sg 
 
 8-12 
 
 17-01 
 
 — ' 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '51 .. 
 
 i3'5z 
 
 8-12 
 
 21-64 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '53 .. 
 
 36'55 
 
 812 
 
 44-67 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '53 .. 
 
 31-09 
 
 8-12 
 
 39"2i 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '54 .. 
 
 25'49 
 
 8-12 
 
 33'6i 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '55 .. 
 
 2 7 '02 
 
 8-12 
 
 35"i4 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '56 .. 
 
 29-52 
 
 8-13 
 
 37-65 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '57 .. 
 
 26-66 
 
 813 
 
 34'79 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '58 .. 
 
 24 "93 
 
 8 13 
 
 33-06 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 'o9 .. 
 
 24-97 
 
 8-15 
 
 3312 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — - 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 '60 .. 
 
 2385 
 
 8-16 
 
 32-01 
 
 83'72 
 
 83-30 
 
 167-02 
 
 677-87 
 
 580-69 
 
 1,258-56 
 
 '61 .. 
 
 22-76 
 
 8-54 
 
 3i'30 
 
 71-71 
 
 73-79 
 
 i45'5o 
 
 692-81 
 
 540-56 
 
 1,233-37 
 
 '62 .. 
 
 2i'59 
 
 9-04 
 
 30"63 
 
 91-98 
 
 89-02 
 
 181-00 
 
 681-01 
 
 570-84 
 
 1,251-85 
 
 '63 .. 
 
 21-39 
 
 9-84 
 
 31 23 
 
 97-68 
 
 96-14 
 
 193-82 
 
 745-87 
 
 654-57 
 
 1,400-44 
 
 '64 .. 
 
 22-60 
 
 10-34 
 
 32-94 
 
 108-62 
 
 109-75 
 
 218-37 
 
 829-78 
 
 702-77 
 
 i,532-S3 
 
 '65 .. 
 
 24-04 
 
 10-39 
 
 34'43 
 
 93-22 
 
 72-85 
 
 166 07 
 
 810-25 
 
 729-26 
 
 1,539-51 
 
 '66 .. 
 
 24'22 
 
 10-14 
 
 34 36 
 
 I3i"59 
 
 96-61 
 
 228-20 
 
 892-27 
 
 757-85 
 
 1,650-12 
 
 '67 .. 
 
 22;8o 
 
 10-85 
 
 33'65 
 
 ioi'6i 
 
 64-41 
 
 166-02 
 
 891-76 
 
 749-47 
 
 1,641 23 
 
 '68 .. 
 
 21 '95 
 
 10-04 
 
 3i"99 
 
 94-62 
 
 80-19 
 
 174-81 
 
 949-90 
 
 773-61 
 
 1,723-51 
 
 '69 .. 
 
 21-24 
 
 9-50 
 
 30'74 
 
 86-28 
 
 68-36 
 
 154-64 
 
 983-89 
 
 807-84 
 
 1,791-73 
 
 '70 .. 
 
 19-90 
 
 10-90 
 
 30'8o 
 
 90-57 
 
 70-67 
 
 161 24 
 
 969-18 
 
 831-43 
 
 1,800-61 
 
 '71 .. 
 
 21-10 
 
 u-oo 
 
 32-10 
 
 105-29 
 
 108-.''.2 
 
 213-61 
 
 1,127-78 
 
 9.54-68 
 
 2,082-46 
 
 '72 
 
 20-60 
 
 11-20 
 
 31-80 
 
 104-57 
 
 89-61 
 
 194-18 
 
 1,22625 
 
 1,028-73 
 
 2,254-98 
 
 '73 '.'. 
 
 21-30 
 
 12-20 
 
 33 "5° 
 
 152-58 
 
 145-80 
 
 298-38 
 
 1,273-72 
 
 1,0.56-88 
 
 2,330-60 
 
 '74 .. 
 
 19-40 
 
 12-90 
 
 32-30 
 
 106-45 
 
 69-26 
 
 175-71 
 
 1,251-97 
 
 l,055-.54 
 
 2,307'5i 
 
 '75 .. 
 
 i9'So 
 
 13-40 
 
 32-90 
 
 121-30 
 
 82-32 
 
 203-62 
 
 1,272-37 
 
 1,042-72 
 
 2,315-09 
 
 '76 .. 
 
 19-00 
 
 14-80 
 
 3380 
 
 105-47 
 
 87 03 
 
 192-50 
 
 1,267-28 
 
 1,02.5-04 
 
 2.292-32 
 
 '77 .. 
 
 19-40 
 
 16-10 
 
 35 '5° 
 
 119-89 
 
 99-77 
 
 219-66 
 
 1,236-26 
 
 1,011-85 
 
 2,24811 
 
 '78 .. 
 
 17-80 
 
 14-70 
 
 32"5o 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 
 ~ 
 
 
 ~ 
 
 In the second section there are collected together the 
 imports and exports of coin and bullion in both metals be- 
 tween the principal countries for each year from 18G0 to 
 1877. The countries embraced in this collection are 
 Russia, Hamburg, Holland, Belgium, France, Italy, Austria, 
 United States, with the United Kingdom and her posses- 
 sions in India and elsewhere, constituting probably five- 
 sixths of the world's traffic. The particulars are taken from 
 the several ofiicial '' Statistical Abstracts '' for the United 
 Kingdom, foreign countries, and our colonies. The latter 
 two do not go back further than 1860. With the exception 
 of the quantities received from or sent to countries not
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 205 
 
 named, it is evident that the return will be double, the im- 
 port of one country being in each case the export of another, 
 but by adding the two together and taking the mean amount 
 we may obtain a tolerably correct idea of the movements to 
 and fro in each year. It is not practicable to obtain the 
 separate quantities of gold and silver from all countries, nor 
 to rely implicitly on the division in those in which it is 
 recorded, but Mr. Giffen in a table laid before the Com- 
 mittee has shown that for the United Kingdom the pro- 
 portion of silver to gold stood for the years — 
 
 1858—61 as 0-57 to i 
 
 'G2 — 6G „ 0.63 „ I 
 
 '67 — 71 ,, 0-63 „ I 
 
 '72 — 7.5 „ 059 „ I 
 
 the average of the whole period being 0'6i to i. 
 
 For reasons which it is not necessary to explain, I am 
 induced to think that the proportion of silver for the middle 
 period, 18G2-72, was overstated in the official tables, pos- 
 sibly so for other years, and that 0*50 or 0*55 to i would 
 be a better ratio. Allowing then that between other 
 countries there is more frequent transport of silver, it will 
 not be far wrong to roughly estimate that altogether there 
 would be twice as much gold as silver, and therefore that 
 two-thirds of the movements are in the superior metal. 
 This would show that the quantity of gold carried backwards 
 and forwards in 1860 was 56, and in 1877 73 millions. 
 
 In the third section a like collection has been made of 
 the imports and exports of merchandise, giving a tolerable 
 representation of the trade of perhaps five-sixths of the 
 whole world. Taking, as before, the mean between the two, 
 we got goods to the value of more than 600 millions in 
 18G0, and l,IOO millions in 1877 internationally exchanged, 
 and having to be paid for in specie or by some other mode 
 of settlement.
 
 206 
 
 ON ROME PHASES OF 
 
 III. — Sufficiency of Gold Supply. 
 
 Tlio connection of this information with tlie subject may 
 not at first sight be apparent, but its purport is to show that 
 the trade of the world has not increased in an undue pro- 
 portion to the stock of gold available for the purposes of the 
 settlement of accounts between the different countries. 
 
 This will appear on comparing the progress made from 
 year to year, thus — 
 
 1860 
 
 '61 — 66 average 
 '67—72 ,. 
 
 '73 
 
 '74 
 
 '75 
 
 '76 
 
 '77 
 
 Existing 
 Gold. 
 
 Mlns. 
 
 814 
 
 876 
 
 996 
 
 1,072 
 
 1,089 
 
 1,106 
 
 1,125 
 
 i»i45 
 
 Moving Bullion, 
 
 Mlns. 
 
 84= 10 per cent. 
 
 94=rII „ 
 
 89= 9 
 149=14 
 
 88= 8 
 102= 9 
 
 96= 9 
 110=10 
 
 Moving Merchandise. 
 
 Mlns. 
 
 629= 77 percent. 
 
 717= 82 „ 
 
 941= 94 
 
 1,160 = 109 „ 
 
 l,1.34=:io6 „ 
 
 1,153=105 „ 
 
 1,146=102 „ 
 1,124= q8 
 
 From 1860 up to 1873, the year in which the trade of the 
 world reached its highest point, whilst there was a con- 
 tinuous addition to the stock of gold, and a corresponding 
 activity in the movements of the precious metals, there was 
 a still greater increase in the interchanging of goods. Yet 
 the gold in existence was ample for conducting the necessary 
 exchanges. From 1873 to the present time there has been 
 a steady decline in trade, and all the while an accession of 
 gold, which forbids the supposition that there is an in- 
 sufficient quantity for the purposes of international exchanges. 
 There are no data for determining in what degree the 
 home trade of the various nations has advanced, but it is 
 pretty certain n ot to have done so to a greater extent in the 
 several nations than their foreign has done. Nor are there 
 any indications, so far at least as our own country is con- 
 cerned, that the supplies of gold have been below our needs. 
 The records of the London Clearing House are generally
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION". 207 
 
 taken to show the magnitude of the business being trans- 
 acted, and in these the highest point was reached in the 
 same year, 1875, when the amount of clearing was 6,013 
 millions; having risen from 3,257 in 1868, and now fallen 
 again to 4,885 in 1879. The amount of bullion which the 
 Bank of England was enabled to retain and consequently 
 the extent of its note circulation, as shown in Table 11.,^ 
 together with the same particulars for the Bank of France, 
 would seem to show that there was no lack of gold to meet 
 the uses to which it had to be applied. 
 
 Beyond this, there can be no question that every ounce 
 of gold is at the present moment capable of doing more duty 
 than at any former period. In proof of this it is sufficient 
 to allude to a few of the alterations which have taken place. 
 The opening of the Suez Canal has halved the time occupied 
 in transmitting bullion to and from the East and Australia ; 
 and in like degree abridged the interval between the de- 
 spatch of goods from hence, and the realization of their value 
 in the countries of sale. An almost equal increase in the 
 rapidity and frequency of communication by steam between 
 other parts of the world, and especially in the use of tele- 
 graphic intercourse, has produced much the same result in 
 other directions. Then the extension of banking facilities 
 has rendered unnecessary and unusual the storing up of any 
 quantity of coin by traders or private individuals, and 
 occasioned the vast majority of receipts and payments to be 
 made with the use of very little money ; how little will ap- 
 pear from the following analysis of " the total payments to 
 credit of customers '' kindly furi:;ished by a banker, whose 
 business may be taken as a sample of the general usage : — 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 Bills of exchange 8"6 
 
 Chc'fiues 88-5 
 
 Bank notes 2"6 
 
 Coin o"3 
 
 J00"0 
 
 ' Published in "Statistical Journal" for June. 1870.
 
 208 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 Do not these several observations justify the conclusion, 
 that thoug'h at particular times and places there may be a 
 temporary deficiency of supply ; so far from there being any 
 scarcity of gold, there never was a period in the world^s 
 commercial history when the existing quantity was so large 
 as it is at present, in proportion to the necessity for its use 
 or the purposes it has to serve ? 
 
 IV. — Fall in Prices. 
 
 Much stress has been laid upon the general fall in the 
 price of commodities as an evidence that gold has become 
 appreciated, and hence the inference drawn, particularly by 
 Mr. Giflen in his paper read not long ago before this 
 society,^ that ''very likely gold and silver have both 
 changed." This opinion is so important as to deserve a close 
 investigation into its validity. 
 
 Mr. Giffen puts '' the average /a Z/ of prices between 1873 
 and 1877 at more than 20 per cent., exclusive, of course, of 
 the additional fall in 1878.^' The "Economist," writing on. 
 28th December last, referring to a letter from Professor 
 Jevons in its number of 8th May, 1869, " reasserting with 
 the utmost confidence that a real rise in prices to the extent 
 of 1 8 per cent, had been established since 1849," endeavoui's 
 to show " that a real fall in prices to the extent of 1 6 per 
 cent, has been established since 1869." Each of these three 
 authorities measures the fluctuations which have taken 
 place by a system of index numbers, in which the average 
 prices of a number of articles (twenty-two in one case, fifty 
 in another), ascertained in the years 1845-50, are each 
 represented by i OO, and the variations in every subsequent 
 year by a corresponding addition or otherwise to this num- 
 ber. The aggregate of these several ratios becomes then 
 the '^ index number,^' representing the value of all com- 
 modities, and consequently the general rise or fall which 
 prices have sustained in each successive year for which 
 
 ^ " Statistical Jonmial," vol. xlii. pp. 57 et seq.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 209 
 
 tho calculations have been made. Dividing this number by 
 a3 many articles as have been employed, tho average is 
 ascertained. 
 
 This system appears so well adapted to attain the desired 
 results, that I have followed it in constructing tables, show- 
 ing not only the prices prevailing in this country, but like- 
 wise of some staple articles in the places of their production ; 
 taking as tho price the average of the year's transactions 
 shown in the " Statistical Abstracts for Foreign Countries 
 and for Colonial Possessions/' issued from the Board of 
 Trade. I am unable, however, to adopt tho '^ Economist" 
 figures as they stand, for they seem to me to err, inasmuch 
 as of tho twenty-two articles four are for different descrip- 
 tions of cotton goods ; and as this commodity is subject to 
 unusual fluctuations, tho alterations in price affect the 
 " index number" in a fourfold degree, I have, therefore, 
 corrected the figures by including only one value for cotton 
 (tho average of the four) , and have added coal,^ as an article 
 too important to be left out ; thus obtaining an average of 
 twenty instead of twenty-two articles. Professor Jovons's 
 figures differ somewhat in principle. I should have pre- 
 ferred using them, but that they are not carried forward 
 further than 18(30, and the subsequent years are essential to 
 the question under consideration. 
 
 The ''Economist" numbers, together with the same aa I 
 have ventured to alter them, and those of Profcss.or Jovous, 
 will thus compare together : — 
 
 ^ The exceptionally high prices to whicli coal, together with iron and 
 other articles in the manufacture of which coal is consumed, rose in 
 1872 and following years, umhdy raises the index numbers. IJut fur 
 tiiis cause those for 1872 to 1875 would probably have been 125, 132, 
 127, 124, rather than 133, 142, 136, 130, as shown in column 3 of 
 next page.
 
 210 
 
 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 Year. 
 
 " Economist." 
 
 Same corrected. 
 
 Jevons. 
 
 1847 
 
 104 
 
 107 
 
 136 
 119 
 
 122 
 124 
 
 172 
 162 
 162 
 
 137 
 122 
 121 
 122 
 118 
 129 
 134 
 131 
 126 
 123 
 123 
 116 
 lOI 
 
 103 
 114 
 
 140 
 123 
 118 
 123 
 124 
 125 
 144 
 151 
 138 
 141 
 128 
 122 
 118 
 119 
 118 
 
 !iri33 
 
 i !•/ 142 
 111136 
 ;l|U30 
 123 
 126 
 118 
 106 
 
 122 
 
 '48 
 
 106 
 
 '49 
 
 100 
 
 '50 
 
 lOI 
 
 '51 
 
 103 
 
 lOI 
 
 '52 
 
 '53 
 
 116 
 
 '54 
 
 130 
 
 125 
 129 
 132 
 118 
 
 '55 
 
 '56 
 
 '57 
 
 '58 
 
 '59 
 
 120 
 
 '60 
 
 124 
 123 
 124 
 123 
 122 
 
 '61 
 
 '62 
 
 '63 
 
 '64 
 
 '65 
 
 121 
 
 '66 
 
 128 
 
 '67 
 
 118 
 
 '68 
 
 120 
 
 '69 
 
 119 
 
 '70 
 
 '71 
 
 
 '72 
 
 
 '73 
 
 
 '74 
 
 
 '75 
 
 
 '76 
 
 
 '77 
 
 
 '78 
 
 
 '79 (1st January) 
 
 — 
 
 Note — Average 1845-50, for each series, 100. 
 
 It will bo noticed that all the foregoing numbers relate 
 solely to prices in this country. In dealing "w-ith those in 
 other countries it becomes necessary to adopt a different 
 point of comparison or datum line, because there are not 
 within my reach any available records earlier than 1861 
 from which to ascertain the average of the six years 1845-50,
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 
 
 211 
 
 that •would bo represented by lOO. I have therefore formed 
 a new index number, in which lOO stands for the average 
 of each article for the six years 1877-72, thus working back- 
 wards and showing each of the specified articles for each 
 year in its relation to that number. In this manner it be- 
 comes practicable to compare to some extent the prices in 
 other countries with our own. The following table shows 
 these in detail : — 
 
 Table II. — Index Numbers for Prices of certain Articles in the Covntry 
 of Production. The Avei-age of Six Years, 1872-77, being repre- 
 sented by loo. 
 
 
 
 Wheat 
 
 
 Cotton. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Wine, 
 
 Silk, 
 
 Rice 
 
 Opium, 
 India. 
 
 Tea, 
 
 Year. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 France. 
 
 France. 
 
 India. 
 
 China, 
 
 
 Eng- 
 land. 
 
 United 
 States. 
 
 France. 
 
 United 
 
 .States. 
 
 India. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 1S49 .... 
 
 83 
 
 _ 
 
 _ 
 
 _ 
 
 
 
 
 _ 
 
 
 _ 
 
 
 '5a .... 
 
 75 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 S3 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 87 
 
 — 
 
 '51 
 
 72 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 6i 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 77 
 
 — 
 
 •o2 .... 
 
 76 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 57 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 79 
 
 — 
 
 •53 .... 
 
 100 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 55 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 
 
 87 
 
 — 
 
 '54 .... 
 
 .36 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 56 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 72 
 
 — 
 
 '55 .... 
 
 141 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 55 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 6i 
 
 — 
 
 '56 .... 
 
 J31 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 55 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 70 
 
 — 
 
 '57 
 
 106 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 55 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 74 
 
 — 
 
 '58 .... 
 
 83 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 50 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 92 
 
 — 
 
 '59 .... 
 
 82 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 74 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 108 
 
 — 
 
 '60 .... 
 
 100 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 53 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 _ 
 
 116 
 
 — 
 
 '01 .... 
 
 104 
 
 95 
 
 122 
 
 71 
 
 
 MS 
 
 133 
 
 120 
 
 121 
 
 — 
 
 'f>2 .... 
 
 104 
 
 88 
 
 82 
 
 l.-iO 
 
 103 
 
 156 
 
 III 
 
 126 
 
 123 
 
 — 
 
 '63 .... 
 
 84 
 
 IDO 
 
 63 
 
 376 
 
 '57 
 
 155 
 
 106 
 
 124 
 
 "5 
 
 — 
 
 '64 .... 
 
 75 
 
 103 
 
 74 
 
 529 
 
 258 
 
 141 
 
 108 
 
 I05 
 
 "5 
 
 — 
 
 '65 .... 
 
 78 
 
 MO 
 
 78 
 
 554 
 
 283 
 
 128 
 
 '45 
 
 83 
 
 89 
 
 — 
 
 '66 .... 
 
 94 
 
 109 
 
 96 
 
 277 
 
 '75 
 
 113 
 
 139 
 
 71 
 
 93 
 
 — 
 
 '67 .... 
 
 121 
 
 98 
 
 93 
 
 195 
 
 '53 
 
 114 
 
 114 
 
 89 
 
 107 
 
 — 
 
 '68 .... 
 
 119 
 
 147 
 
 82 
 
 125 
 
 129 
 
 110 
 
 129 
 
 100 
 
 io3 
 
 — 
 
 •69 .... 
 
 90 
 
 I118 
 
 78 
 
 161 
 
 114 
 
 121 
 
 '34 
 
 86 
 
 108 
 
 — 
 
 '70 .... 
 
 88 
 
 loo 
 
 82 
 
 152 
 
 136 
 
 111 
 
 .36 
 
 97 
 
 lOI 
 
 — 
 
 '71 .... 
 
 107 
 
 102 
 
 82 
 
 96 
 
 133 
 
 100 
 
 121 
 
 110 
 
 05 
 
 — 
 
 '72 .... 
 
 107 
 
 113 
 
 92 
 
 124 
 
 104 
 
 112 
 
 112 
 
 I114 
 
 108 
 
 — 
 
 '73 .... 
 
 no 
 
 1(12 
 
 108 
 
 121 
 
 III 
 
 H>1 
 
 99 
 
 102 
 
 105 
 
 — 
 
 '74 .... 
 
 104 
 
 111 
 
 104 
 
 99 
 
 104 
 
 1<K) 
 
 85 
 
 90 
 
 96 
 
 — 
 
 *75 .... 
 
 85 
 
 88 
 
 96 
 
 97 
 
 96 
 
 94 
 
 89 
 
 104 
 
 96 
 
 — 
 
 '76 .... 
 
 87 
 
 96 
 
 93 
 
 8;? 
 
 94 
 
 91 
 
 119 
 
 94 
 
 96 
 
 — 
 
 '77 .... 
 
 107 
 
 90 
 
 107 
 
 76 
 
 91 
 
 101 
 
 96 
 
 107 
 
 98 
 
 — 
 
 '78 .... 
 
 87 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 
 — 
 
 Average ) 
 1872-77 S 
 
 too 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 100 
 
 The mean number of these nine articles, compared with 
 those previously shown as altered from the " Economist," 
 and converted to the datura line of the preceding table, 
 will then stand thus running backwards : —
 
 212 
 
 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 1879. 
 '78, 
 '77 
 '76 
 '75 
 '74 
 '73 
 '72 
 '71 
 '70 
 
 Homo Prices. 
 
 8o 
 90 
 96 
 94 
 99 
 103 
 108 
 
 lOI 
 
 90 
 91 
 
 World Prices. 
 
 18G9 
 
 
 _ 
 
 -"OH 
 
 97 
 
 '67 
 
 95 
 
 "(Ki 
 
 94 
 
 '05 
 
 99 
 
 '04 
 
 107 
 
 '63 
 
 108 
 
 '62 
 
 J 05 
 
 '01 
 
 in 
 
 '00 
 
 Home Prices. 
 
 90 
 
 93 
 98 
 107 
 105 
 
 115 
 109 
 
 95 
 94 
 94 
 
 World Prices. 
 
 Ill 
 
 116 
 120 
 132 
 175 
 170 
 143 
 116 
 113 
 
 It is obvious that these foreign prices are too limited in 
 number and in range of articles to form an adequate basis 
 for comparison, but so far as they go they indicate — more 
 especially in the earlier years — a great diflFerence from those 
 at home. The later years approach much nearer to each 
 other, a proof how much rapid transit, more especially the 
 speed of telegraphic communication, does towards equalizing 
 prices in the most distant places. 
 
 Many curious questions may arise out of these compari- 
 sons, which it would be unfitting at present to discuss, but 
 the figures having been collected at considerable labour are 
 set forth in much greater detail than is perhaps necessary, 
 in the hope that they may be available for other objects 
 than the one we are now pursuing. It is important, how- 
 ever, to notice their great irregularity and the absence of 
 any steady sequence of rise or fall which would establish 
 the fact that prices are affected wholly or even mainly by 
 the existing quantities of gold or silver. 
 
 V. — Purchasing Poiver of Gold. 
 
 There can be no question that with the gold discoveries 
 and the sudden influx of money thus produced, there was a 
 great increase in prices, giving evidence of a diminution in 
 the purchasing power of gold, and there has lately been a 
 lessening of price which materially adds to that purchasing
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 213 
 
 power ; but it may fairly bo questioned whctLcr this is 
 rightly attributed to a depreciation at one time, or appre- 
 ciation at another of the metal itself, rather than to the 
 influence of other causes, appreciating and depreciating at 
 different periods the commodities which gold is employed 
 to purchase. If I may be allowed the expression of an 
 opinion differing from that of so many great authorities, I 
 would venture to assert that the influence of gold in raising 
 or reducing prices depends not so much upon the quantity 
 of it available for use, as on the circumstances attending its 
 production, and the facilities offered for its employment. 
 Wealth of any description easily and rapidly acquired has a 
 tendency to an equally easy and rapid dispersion. The 
 sudden acquisition of money by those who rushed into gold 
 mining, combined with the abstraction of so much labour 
 from other pursuits, and the employment of so much more 
 labour in ministering to the wants of those who ceased to 
 become producers, could not do otherwise than raise the 
 demand for the necessaries and luxuries of life beyond the 
 supply, and thus enhance their cost. Almost exactly the 
 same thing has happened with other commodities than gold ; 
 at one time iron, at another coal, at another something else, 
 has brought about the same result. These have been real 
 additions to the wealth of the world, because they have been 
 articles of real utility, but their influence has been less 
 enduring because of their destructibility, whilst gold as 
 money is almost indestructible. The stone thrown into 
 the pond, partly by its bulk and partly by its imparted 
 force, raises the level of the water with which it comes in 
 contact, but each succeeding ripple becomes lower and 
 lower, till no elevation is perceptible ; so the masses of gold 
 thrown amongst the moving nmltitude of purchasers, raised 
 the level of prices ; but with each succeeding transmission 
 from hand to hand its elevating power became less, and not- 
 withstanding the mass still remains, its inllucnco on prices 
 ceases. Were it otherwise, with the over-increasing stock 
 of gold in the world, and the constant growth of realized
 
 214 ON SOME PHASES <)V 
 
 property, wliicli in the securities by which it is represented 
 answers the purpose of gold for exchanges, there should bo 
 an ever-increasing rise in prices ; and at the present moment, 
 with the store of gold in this country, prices should be 
 higher than ever. We must look then for other causes for 
 the recent fall of prices. They are to be found in the con- 
 dition of the manufacturers for foreign markets, who, unable 
 as before to effect profitable exchanges of the goods where- 
 with to obtain possession of gold to purchase articles of 
 consumption, cannot give high prices, which thus perforce 
 must sink. 
 
 A striking confirmation of the previously expressed views 
 that the alteration in prices must be attributed to other 
 causes than the influence of gold, may be derived from the 
 study of some tables furnished to the " Economist " in July 
 of last, and January of this year, comparing the imports 
 and exports of 1872 with those of 1877, and 1877 with 1878 
 (a similar comparison of 1872 with 1873 having appeared in 
 " Lloyd's Lisf of June, 1873). These tables I have com- 
 bined into one contrasting the import trade of 1878 with 
 1872, and another the exports for the same periods. They 
 will be found in the Appendix (D and E) ; ^ but the results 
 are not so marked as in the originals, because of the rise in 
 many articles which took place between 1872 and 1877, 
 being balanced or varied by the fall which was experienced 
 in the following year. A few extracts showing the actual 
 increases and decreases in prices on the values of certain 
 classes of articles will make this apparent. 
 
 In the face of such irregularities of growth and decay in 
 value as are here manifested, it is impossible to ascribe the 
 changes wholly or chiefly to any assumed alteration in the 
 valuation of the gold in which the values are expressed. 
 These tables were compiled in the first instance to determine 
 how far the diminution of our trade was due to the quantities 
 as they rose and fell, or to the progressive alterations of 
 prices. They have an important bearing upon the present 
 ^ Vide " StatisticalJoiu-nal," June, 1879.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 
 
 215 
 
 question from the disparity they show between imports and 
 exports ; the one for several years manifesting a tendency 
 to increase in price, the other to a fall ; most incontrover- 
 tibly demonstrating that these changes were in the goods 
 themselves and the circumstances of the buyers and sellers, 
 not in the value of gold. Thus — 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Lnporis — 
 
 Animal food 
 
 jj 
 
 Vegetable food 
 
 Cocoa, coffee, and tea 
 
 ?) 
 
 Textile materials 
 
 5? 
 
 Total food consumption 
 
 Total materials for manufacture 
 
 )> 
 Exports — 
 
 Textile manufactures 
 
 >? 
 
 Total British produce 
 
 >> 
 
 Total foreign and colonial goods 
 
 Year. 
 
 Value. 
 
 
 £ 
 
 1877 
 
 36-34 
 
 '78 
 
 40-29 
 
 '77 
 
 I02'l8 
 
 '78 
 
 89-28 
 
 '77 
 
 2082 
 
 '78 
 
 19-80 
 
 '77 
 
 74-92 
 
 '78 
 
 70-43 
 
 '77 
 
 183-77 
 
 '78 
 
 172-67 
 
 '77 
 
 128-12 
 
 '78 
 
 122-34 
 
 1877 
 
 100-55 
 
 '78 
 
 98-65 
 
 '77 
 
 142-36 
 
 '78 
 
 138-46 
 
 '77 
 
 36-63 
 
 '78 
 
 3776 
 
 Increase 
 
 or Decrease 
 
 on 1872. 
 
 £ 
 + 3-50 
 
 — 1-04 
 + 1-52 
 
 — 17-58 
 + 2-38 
 
 — 22-98 
 
 — 25-12 
 
 — 39-19 
 
 9">2 
 
 Increase 
 
 or Decrease 
 
 on 1877. 
 
 £ 
 
 — 375 
 
 — 10-17 
 
 — 0-71 
 
 — 3*34 
 
 — 1574 
 
 — 8-21 
 
 — 2-70 
 
 — 5-31 
 
 — 1-61 
 
 VI. — Variations in the Value of Gold. 
 
 But apart from the variations in the value of gold, as 
 measured by its power to purchase other commodities, some 
 consideration is due to the alterations in its value for use as 
 money, not for expenditure in consumption but in produc- 
 tion. Although absolutely inert in itself, and unable to 
 increase as natural products do, or as the products of labour, 
 whether bodily or mental, do ; it yet has a power to increase 
 in the hands of its holders by drawing to itself that wliich 
 other means have produced. In this sense it may bo said 
 to have two values — permanent and temporary — according
 
 21G ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 as it is devoted to stationary or fluctuating investment. 
 The one value is to bo seen in the price of the public Funds ; 
 the other in the price of short-lived employment, as repre- 
 sented by the Bank rate. The following table ^ shows the 
 price for thirty years of English Consols and French Rentes, 
 each paying 3 per cent, interest, and for the same period 
 the minimum Bank rates in England, France, and Germany. 
 In this country and in others having a gold standard, 
 whereby there is a fixed relation between the ounce of 
 metal and the pound sterling or other unit, having no other 
 term whereby to express value than this same sovereign, 
 we are apt to forget that gold really does fluctuate in value 
 almost as greatly as other commodities ; or at least we are 
 in the habit of thinking of depreciation or appreciation, as 
 a gradual process so slow and steady as to escape notice, 
 except by the occasional comparison of one period with 
 another, whereas in truth an ounce or pound is worth much 
 more at one time than another and in diflerent places at the 
 same time. The average price of Consols during thirty 
 years is shown to be 93|-, yielding thus an annual interest 
 of £3*24. Now, looking to the facts that there is a proba- 
 bility of having to sell or buy at a different price, and that the 
 transfer occasions some small expense, we may strike off 
 the odd '24, and say that in England gold lying absolutely 
 secure without chance of loss or gain is valued at 3 per 
 cent. In France the average price has been 66*03, yiG^<i" 
 ing 4*64 per cent., a difierence due doubtless to the unsettled 
 state of government and other causes rendering it of some 
 risk to hold such securities. But taking 3 per cent, as the 
 absolute value of gold because the value of its representa- 
 tive, we find that during this period its price has varied as 
 much as from 88 to 99^-; that is, a person parting with 
 ninety-nine sovereigns at one time would only receive back 
 eighty-eight at another, or vice versa. A somewhat start- 
 ling variation in a value which is thought to be fixed and 
 unalterable. In France the range has been still greater, 
 ^ Vide " Statistical Journal," as before.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 217 
 
 the same interest-bearing security being at one time 53'65, 
 at another^ 79*5 2. 
 
 Then for temporary use — not dwelling upon the rise once 
 or twice for a few days to 10 per cent. — the yearly averages 
 have varied as much as from 2' I 5 to 7*50 in England^ and 
 from 2*25 to 6" 50 in France, although for the whole period 
 the average has been almost identical, 3'9I here, 4*04 
 there. Yet it has happened more than once that at tho 
 same time gold would purchase in the one place the same 
 or equally good sccunties at prices yielding double the 
 interest it would in the other. The variations in the 
 German rates do not appear to have been so great, although 
 they by no moans show a constant value attaching to either 
 gold or silver. 
 
 The causes of these fluctuations in value it would be out 
 of place to consider on this occasion. All that is necessary 
 to the argument as regards silver, is to show that the price 
 of gold itself is so greatly subject to change that it never 
 can be said to have any natural fixed value in relation to 
 either_tho pound, silver, or any other commodity. 
 
 VII. — Production and Depreciation of Silver. 
 
 So large a space has been devoted to the consideration 
 of the gold question, for the simple reason that having to 
 deal with two elements, either of which or both together 
 may be unstable, it is quite necessary to determine with 
 some precision with which of the two the whole or tho 
 greater part of the instabiUty rests. That it is not with 
 gold to anything like such an extent as the very great 
 depreciation in the gold-value of silver would point, seems 
 to bo pretty clearly established by the evidence already 
 adduced. The way is thus prepared for considering the 
 actual position in which silver now stands.
 
 218 
 
 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 Table ITI. — Extimated Production of Silver in Each Year from 1849 
 to 1878, with Axierage Prices in London Market; Imports and 
 Exports of United Kingdom; Exports to the East; and Bills 
 Drawn on Indian Government for same Period. 
 
 [Ill million £'8 to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Silver 
 
 Price, 
 
 United Kingdom. 
 
 India. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Years. 
 
 Produced. 
 
 London. 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 E.xports 
 to East. 
 
 Bills on 
 
 Indian 
 
 Government. 
 
 1849... 
 
 8-12 
 
 d. 
 59J 
 
 
 7-72 
 
 3-8i 
 
 1-89 
 
 '50... 
 
 8l2 
 
 60A 
 
 — 
 
 4-37 
 
 5-05 
 
 2-94 
 
 '51... 
 
 8-12 
 
 61 
 
 — 
 
 5-08 
 
 1-72 
 
 324 
 
 '52... 
 
 8-12 
 
 604 
 
 — 
 
 5-97 
 
 2-45 
 
 2-78 
 
 '53... 
 
 8-12 
 
 64 
 
 — 
 
 6-15 
 
 3-12 
 
 3-32 
 
 '54... 
 
 8l2 
 
 6H 
 
 — 
 
 6-03 
 
 310 
 
 3-85 
 
 '55... 
 
 8-12 
 
 61A 
 
 — 
 
 6-98 
 
 6-43 
 
 3-67 
 
 '56... 
 
 8-13 
 
 61f5 
 
 — 
 
 12-81 
 
 12-11 
 
 1-48 
 
 '57... 
 
 8-13 
 
 61i 
 
 • — 
 
 18-51 
 
 16-73 
 
 2-82 
 
 '58.. 
 
 8-13 
 
 61t\ 
 
 6-70 
 
 7-06 
 
 475 
 
 •63 
 
 '59.. 
 
 8-15 
 
 &2^ 
 
 1477 
 
 17-61 
 
 14-83 
 
 -03 
 
 '60... 
 
 8-i6 
 
 61H 
 
 10-39 
 
 9-89 
 
 8-48 
 
 — 
 
 '61... 
 
 8-54 
 
 60H 
 
 6-58 
 
 9-57 
 
 6-82 
 
 — 
 
 '62... 
 
 9-04 
 
 61A 
 
 1175 
 
 13-31 
 
 lOIO 
 
 1-19 
 
 '63... 
 
 9-84 
 
 61t 
 
 10-89 
 
 11-24 
 
 8-26 
 
 6-64 
 
 '64... 
 
 IO-34 
 
 61t 
 
 10-83 
 
 9-85 
 
 6-25 
 
 8-98 
 
 '65... 
 
 10-39 
 
 61A 
 
 6-98 
 
 6-60 
 
 3-60 
 
 6-79 
 
 '66... 
 
 1014 
 
 61i 
 
 10-78 
 
 8-90 
 
 2-37 
 
 7-00 
 
 '67... 
 
 10-85 
 
 60^ 
 
 8-02 
 
 6-44 
 
 •64 
 
 5-61 
 
 '68... 
 
 10-04 
 
 60i 
 
 772 
 
 7-51 
 
 1-64 
 
 4-14 
 
 '69... 
 
 9-50 
 
 COtV 
 
 673 
 
 7-90 
 
 2-36 
 
 3-71 
 
 '70... 
 
 10-90 
 
 60t^ 
 
 10-65 
 
 8-91 
 
 1-58 
 
 6-98 
 
 '71... 
 
 1 1 00 
 
 60i 
 
 16-52 
 
 13-06 
 
 3-71 
 
 8-44 
 
 '72... 
 
 1 1 20 
 
 60f\ 
 
 II-I4 
 
 10-59 
 
 5-65 
 
 10-31 
 
 '73... 
 
 I2-20 
 
 59i 
 
 12-99 
 
 9-83 
 
 2-50 
 
 13-94 
 
 '74... 
 
 12-90 
 
 58^ 
 
 12-30 
 
 12-21 
 
 7-09 
 
 13-29 
 
 '75... 
 
 13-40 
 
 56| 
 
 IO-I2 
 
 8-98 
 
 3"7i 
 
 10-84 
 
 '76... 
 
 14-80 
 
 52f 
 
 13-58 
 
 12-95 
 
 10-91 
 
 11-51 
 
 '77... 
 
 i6-io 
 
 5-lM 
 
 21-71 
 
 19-44 
 
 17-00 
 
 8.64 
 
 '78... 
 
 14-70 
 
 52Tlr 
 
 "■55 
 
 11-72 
 
 5-84 
 
 13-97 
 
 The annexed table shows the production of silver since 
 1852, as estimated by Sir Hector Hay, commencing with a 
 yearly produce of about 8 millions, and ending with more 
 than double that amount in the last few years, giving an 
 average of some 10 millions per annum. If from this we 
 deduct 2 millions as absorbed in the arts, wear and tear, &c., 
 the existing silver must have been increasing for the last
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 219 
 
 thirty years at the rate of about 8 millions per annum. 
 There seems to be great difficulty, more so than with gold, 
 in arriving at anything like an accurate notion of the 
 quantity of silver in coin or bullion which the world pos- 
 sessed, either in 1848 or 1879, and so to see what ratio 
 the annual additions bear to the previous accumulation. 
 Mr. Seyd estimates the amount in 1848 as 6oo millions ; 
 but then allows for an increase of 50 millions only up to 
 1875, which, is quite incompatible with the estimate of the 
 successive additions of 8 millions in every year. For our 
 present purpose, however, the actual amount dispersed 
 amongst the various nations by whom it is used is not so 
 important as the progressive growth in that quantity what- 
 ever it may be. Perhaps we are safe in setting the former 
 amount at something like 50O millions, and if so the total 
 increase must bo about one half of that sum. 
 
 The same table shows the average prices in London, per 
 ounce of standard silver, for each of the last thirty years, 
 beginning with 59l(^. in 1819, and ending with 52TVf^' fo^' 
 1878. Since then there has been a further reduction, until 
 the last price quoted to-day is ^Ol-d. Side by side with 
 these will be found the silver imports and exports to and 
 from the United Kingdom, the exports to the East, and the 
 amount of bills drawn at home on the Indian Government, 
 all of which particulars present features of interest, although 
 their sequence is not so regular or so closely following 
 either production or price as to establish any law of intimate 
 connection with either the one or the other. The column 
 of price shows that between 1849 and 1872 thei*e was no 
 very great variation from 59^^.; in the earlier years it rose 
 by slow degrees as high as 62-['zd., in 1859, having in the 
 months of March and July been 62-^(1. (the highest price 
 ever quoted) , and then by almost equally regular descent 
 reached GOrgd. in the latter years, the average of the whole 
 period having been 6 id. It is e\'ident, therefore, that 
 neither the increasing rate of production, nor the varying 
 rates of movement to and fro, nor yet the absorption by the
 
 220 ON so^^E phases of 
 
 East, havG exercised any regular or constant effect upon 
 the price. All these and many other causes must have 
 each had their specific influence, but want of uniformity in 
 their occurrence neutralizing each other, no marked result 
 followed. We must look then for some other cause or 
 causes to account for the marked and rapid decline which 
 has been going on since then. In six years, without 
 reckoning the further changes of the present year, the fall 
 has been from 60g — 6l|- in January, 1872, to 49! — 50^5- 
 in December, 1878, equal to IO+- in seven years, or an 
 average of i^r per annum, being 2 1 per cent, altogether, or 
 3 per cent, yearly. 
 
 In the opinion of the committee of the House of Com- 
 mons, this fall is due to three principal causes : — 
 
 1st. " The greatly increased yield from the new mines in 
 Nevada,^' to which all the increase in production since 
 1870 is to be attributed. 
 
 2nd. " To the introduction of a gold currency into 
 Germany," which commenced at the end of 1871. The 
 total amount of silver which it is estimated has thus to be 
 withdrawn, when the operation is complete, is £48,000,000, 
 of which probably 30 to 35 millions has been already sold. 
 
 3rd. " To the decreased demand for silver for export to 
 India." From a paper laid before the committee by 
 Mr. Waterfield, it would appear that the surplus of imports 
 of silver into India in periods of ten years have been : — 
 
 £ 
 
 1835-36 to 1844-45 20,534,669 
 
 '45-46 „ '54-55 15,327,009 
 
 '55-56 „ '64-65 100,202,612 
 
 '65-66 „ '74-75 62,400,060 
 
 '75-76 „ '77-78 21.873,207 
 
 220,337,557 
 
 Comparing the six years 1866-72, with the same number 
 since that, we shall find —
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 221 
 
 Avprajje. 
 
 18G6-72 5,988,860 
 
 72-78 4,945,240 
 
 1,043,620 
 
 To these the comniitteo add three other causes : — 
 
 1st. The substitution by the Scandinavian Governments 
 of gold for silver in their currency, which is estimated to 
 have caused the withdrawal from employment of £-l,8oo,000 
 between 1873 and 187G. 
 
 2nd. The suspension of silver coinage by the Latin union. 
 
 3rd. The temporary prohibition of silver coining in 
 Holland, by which some £4,000,000 of gold has been 
 substituted. 
 
 These several causes have been so fully entered into, that 
 it may be sufficient here to state the estimate of their col- 
 lected amount of silver thrown out of use during the last six 
 years, to be from 40 to 50 millions. 
 
 Now giving full weight to this amount, and likewise to 
 the fear of effects yet to be produced by the further sale of 
 German silver, these causes seem insufficient to account for 
 the depreciated value at which silver now stands, and I 
 would venture to add some other results of the altered 
 condition of monetary affairs. 
 
 1st. The hoarding of money which was formerly common 
 has very much ceased, both in our own and other countries, 
 especially in France, in consequence of tho great increase in 
 banking facilities, and still more in the creation of numerous 
 interest-bearing securities which aro available for persons 
 of but limited means. Tho vast increase in the deposits in 
 our own savings' banks, and tho number of small holders of 
 French Government stock which tho system of the Emperor 
 Napoleon introduced, are but two instances of this change. 
 
 2nd. Here, and doubtless elsewhere, shopkeepers and 
 petty tradesmen as well as the larger dealers and merchants 
 now have banking accounts, to which at short intervals they 
 carry their receipts, and from which they draw by cheques.
 
 222 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 many of which aro interchanged without the use of coin, 
 the sums required for paying their accounts. Everybody 
 now seems anxious to get rid of coin as soon as received, 
 and the saving thus induced must vastly economize the 
 employment of both gold and silver. 
 
 3rd. The great accession to the stock of gold in the world 
 cannot fail to have its effect upon the employment of silver 
 also. The greater convenience which the superior metal 
 has for all uses excepting that of small change, must tend 
 very much to circumscribe the use of the inferior. This is 
 greatly enhanced by the extension of postal, telegraph, and 
 railway communications, which render the. transport of coin 
 or bank notes so much more rapid and easy, especially of 
 gold or notes, which occupy little space and are easily moved, 
 whilst silver is cumbrous and therefore difficult of transfer 
 from one place to another. Now if it be true, as previously 
 asserted, that the quantity of the precious metals in the 
 world is at present greater in proportion to the uses they 
 have to serve, the weightier and less valuable of the two is 
 sure to be the first to be disused where any option exists. 
 So far from there being any scarcity of gold which should 
 cause an appreciation of its value in relation to silver, there 
 appears to be good ground for believing that a plethora of 
 it exists. It fails to depreciate in value, because it thrusts 
 out silver from use as money and tends more and more to 
 reduce it to the condition of a commodity. Herein pro- 
 bably consists a very potent cause for the overstocking of 
 the silver market, and hence the diminishing price in gold 
 which can be obtained for it. 
 
 VIII. — Depression of Trade. 
 
 It is impossible not to notice the coincidence in point of 
 time of the decay in the value of silver with the earlier 
 stages of that depression in trade of which it is much to be 
 feared we are far from having reached the culminating point. 
 Messrs. Pixley and Abel's circular remarks on the year 1872, 
 "commencement of decline in price of silver," and the
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 223 
 
 remarks at foot will be found in articles on the trade of 
 1873, furnished by myself to " Lloyd's List/^ ^ ^ It was not 
 till the latter half of the year that silver began to fall, nor 
 till the middle of the following year that it assumed any 
 serious proportions, and bearing in mind that it is frequently 
 some months before any change becomes manifest in the 
 official trade accounts, it is clear that silver, the imports of 
 materials for manufacture, and the exports of manufactui-ed 
 articles, all began to decline in price or quantity about the 
 same time. It is to be noticed, too, that silver depreciation 
 
 ^ " The conclusions to be drawn from the facts disclosed in these 
 returns, when viewed in connection with the dimmution in our exports 
 which has been for some time slowly advancing, are by no means con- 
 solatory or reassuring. It is evident that we have commenced to buy 
 less of the materials on which our great manufactures depend ; and that 
 as we sell less and less of these we must diminish still further the im- 
 ports we can afford to purchase ; also, that just in proportion as we pur- 
 chase less, the countries from which we take these products will be the 
 less able to buy the articles into which we manufocture the raw mate- 
 rials. Meantime we are largely and continuously adding to our receipts 
 of articles for food, the cost of which is so much loss to the nation if we 
 cannot find employment for the working power which this food sustains ; 
 or if the price at which that labour is obtained be so enhanced as to 
 render its employment unprofitable." — 30//i July, 1S73. 
 
 * " It is barely possible that the conclusions arrived at by a cursory 
 study of these returns may be somewhat modified on more matured con- 
 sideration of the fuller information to be furnished in the ' Annual State- 
 ment of Trade ; ' but thus far there appears nothing to remove the im- 
 j)ression — that our extending importation of articles to be consumed as 
 I'ood, unaccompanied by an increased exj)ortation of our own i)roduce 
 and manufacture, cannot be a satisfactory condition of trade. So far as 
 the imjjortations of articles necessary for the sustenance of our po])ula- 
 tion are concerned, \mless that Ibod be transformed into some tangible 
 productions of the labour it feeds, with which to pay for its cost, there 
 is to (hat extent a loss of national wcaltli : and the same remark may 
 a]>piy in some measure to those articles which, not strictly necessary as 
 food, enter largely into consumption. The increased sale for these may 
 indicate, as doubtless it does, the possession by the labouring classes of 
 greater means for enjoyment and jjersunal gratification, but, unless our 
 producing power is employed as well as maintained, the supply of these 
 means umst fail, and our importations as well as our exportations will 
 decline both in (piaiitily and value." — 2(i//i January, 1874. ,
 
 224 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 preceded its demonetization by the German Government by 
 some months, although it is probable that the anticipation 
 of this action may have exercised an influence prior to its 
 actual performance. It would be out of place here to go 
 over the same ground as regards imports and exports that 
 has been travelled before, but it must be remarked that the 
 growing balance of trade against us in each year from 1872 
 to 1877 would prevent silver being sent to us in payment 
 for other goods. It would come here either in exchange 
 for gold procured by the sale of secui'ities, or on consign- 
 ment for sale, and thus like any other commodity for which 
 the demand is slack have to suffer in value. 
 
 The direct effects of this silver depreciation upon the 
 trade and financial condition of our own country are not so 
 serious as its indirect results. Our own standard being a 
 gold one, and silver being used only for tokens passing at 
 an artificial value by legislative enactment, no loss on our 
 money is sustained ; but the Mint gains on the metal con- 
 verted into coin to the full extent of the lower price at 
 which it can be purchased. There are never very large 
 stocks in the hands of British holders, and it is probable 
 that the bullion merchants and speculative dealers have 
 realized quite as much profit from fluctuations downwards 
 as they would if the direction had been different. No doubt 
 loss ensues wherever contracts exist which have to be met 
 by receipts of silver, and trade must be impeded in silver- 
 using countries by the necessity of charging higher for the 
 goods we sell to meet the difference in exchange ; but as it 
 does not appear that the prices of articles purchased for the 
 home market have greatly risen in their silver value, there 
 would on these be a corresponding gain. 
 
 As regards India, up to March, 1877, neither the Viceroy 
 there, nor the India OflBce here, seem to think that the pur- 
 chasing power of the rupee had become less, '' The relative 
 values of gold and silver not having varied in the same pro- 
 portion as elsewhere ; " ^ and though " the silver prices of 
 ' Parliauieutary papers relating to silver, 22nd March, 1877.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 22.5 
 
 imported goods had not risou/' this may be accounted for 
 by the fall in the price of their first cost. The Indian 
 finances, however, have suifered most grievously from the 
 revenue having to be collected in silver, and so largo a 
 portion of it having to be paid in gold or its equivalent in 
 England. The bills drawn last year upon India by the 
 Government to meet the expenditure upon Indian account 
 in this country amounted to £ 1 4,000,000, and the fall from 
 60 i to 52t\ represented a depreciation of 13 per cent., 
 making an actual loss to the Indian revenue of nearly 
 £2,000,000 for the one year only, whilst the estimate for 
 the coming year is nearly double that sum. On oflicial or 
 private persons having to remit money either in specie or 
 bills, the same sacrifice is entailed. 
 
 So far as concerns internal circulation in countries where 
 the silver standai'd exists, it matters little what the price of 
 silver in other places may be, but on whatever amounts 
 they have to export to countries having a gold standard, 
 a loss must ensue ; and that not only on the actual trans- 
 mission of the silver, but on all transactions for which it is 
 the standard, or rather upon the balance between the 
 imports and exports. India suffers to the extent that she 
 has to remit money to this counti*y ; but it must be remem- 
 bered that as between the mother country and herself there 
 can be no absolute loss, and India, as a country whoso 
 exports exceed its imports (as shown in the following 
 figures), should gain an equivalent for the loss on remit- 
 tances, and in addition benefit by all payments from this 
 side : —
 
 22G 
 
 ox so:\rE tiiases of 
 
 [In million £*s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Surplus Exports. 
 
 1854-59 (average) 
 
 '60-65 ( ,/ ) 
 
 '66-71 ( „ ) 
 
 '72 
 
 14-83 
 24-67 
 
 32-96 
 32-09 
 
 31-87 
 33-82 
 36-22 
 38-89 
 37-44 
 
 23-99 
 46-46 
 53-18 
 63-19 
 55-24 
 5500 
 56-36 
 58-05 
 60-96 
 
 9-16 
 
 21-79 
 20-22 
 31-10 
 
 23-37 
 21-18 
 
 '73 
 
 '74 
 
 '75 
 
 20-14 
 
 '76 
 
 19-16 
 23-52 
 
 '77 
 
 
 Either the rupee has retained its purchasing power or 
 become depreciated. If the former, it will purchase the 
 same quantity of goods which — were no other cause in 
 existence — would sell here for as many sovereigns as be- 
 fore, and purchase a greater number of rupees or weight of 
 silver. If the latter, then labour and produce must obtain more 
 rupees ; and taxation being levied in rupees, its burden 
 must be correspondingly lightened. It will be observed 
 that the surplus of exports exceeds the remittances that 
 have to be made. The whole question would thus ultimately 
 resolve itself into an adjustment of wages, prices, and taxes, 
 to fit the altered value of money, were it not for the fact 
 that India seems to be yearly growing poorer and less able 
 to bear the charges for its government and expenditure. 
 
 I am aware that far greater evils than these are assigned 
 to this depreciation by a large number of thinkers and 
 writers on this subject. The limits of this paper will not 
 permit a consideration of the various arguments by which 
 it is attempted to be proved that the decline of our exports, 
 the fall in prices, and the general depression of trade, are 
 all due to the altered relation in the value of gold and 
 silver, and to the folly of our Government and others in not 
 agreeing to a fixed and unalterable ratio of value between 
 the two metals. They seem to me to rest upon the fallacy 
 that money, rather than the wants, be they real or artificial.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 227 
 
 of mankind, creates trade, and that you have but to stamp 
 the one metal with an effigy which shall give it a certain 
 value in another metal, to promote an almost unlimited 
 growth and interchange of the products of industry, and 
 thus enhance the welfare of nations. I cannot but think 
 that whilst a sufficiency of tho circulating medium, be it in 
 precious metals, Ijank notes, or other securities which pass 
 readily from hand to hand, economizes labour, and so adds 
 to the wealth of the world, the real prosperity alike of in- 
 dividuals and nations depends upon the judicious use they 
 make of their productive powers, and the right expenditure 
 or consumption of tho products thus created. 
 
 IX. — Bl-mctallic and other Theories. 
 
 Did this paper profess to be an exhaustive one, it would 
 bo necessary to take up the various propositions which have 
 been made for dealing with the difficulties arising from the 
 existing depreciation, or providing against their aggrava- 
 tion in the future. Pretending, however, only to deal with 
 some portions of a subject far too vast to be disposed of in a 
 short paper, this branch of it might bo passed by. Yet a 
 few remarks will probably be expected, and can hardly be 
 omitted. Two classes of suggestions are offered, the one 
 having for its object tho restoration of value to silver by 
 fixing its relation to gold at a higher ratio than at present, 
 such a proportion as till recently it enjoyed ; the other, that 
 of obviatintic tho inconveniences of a fluctuating standard 
 and a varying state of the exchanges, by the substitution of 
 one that may be fixed. The views of ono side favour the 
 adoption of tho bi-motallic standard or even the demoneti- 
 zation of gold ; those of the other, the universal acceptauco 
 of a gold standard, or such measures as would lead to its 
 ultimate adoption. 
 
 The great objection to the bi-metallic system is that it 
 must rest upon an arbitrary valuation of tho two metals, 
 which would with difficulty be maintained in the liome cir-
 
 228 ON SOME rilASES OF 
 
 dilation, and could not be permanently uphold in the inter- 
 national uso of money. Its establishment requires that 
 both metals should be a legal tender within the limits of 
 every State, and therefore renders the choice of metal for 
 the discharge of obligations dependent upon the will of the 
 payer, who, in selecting the coin most convenient for him- 
 self, might not always choose that most acceptable to the 
 recipient. The simple difference in bulk — rendering trans- 
 port difficult — and in the number of coins to be counted or 
 weighed, would in most circumstances be to the advantage 
 of gold and ensure a small premium in its favour. Under 
 other conditions silver might be preferable, and its holder 
 be enabled to dictate the terms on which he would part with 
 its possession. 
 
 A striking proof of the impossibility of maintaining any 
 definite ratio of value between gold and silver is to be seen 
 in the present accumulations of Bi'itish silver coin in the 
 hands of bankers and other holders. Owing to the reduced 
 expenditure on wages and the lesser amounts required for 
 the purchase of articles of consumption, it becomes difficult 
 to dispose of large quantities and a commission is charged 
 on its transfer. This is virtually a fall in value, notwith- 
 standing that its worth in relation to the sovereign is un- 
 altered. It may be said that this results from silver not 
 being made a legal tender to any amount, but the same 
 condition would arise whenever the one metal or the other 
 — almost always silver — was found to be in excess of the 
 requirements for its employment. 
 
 Without entering upon other details or producing illus- 
 trations, it must be evident that in a country under such 
 monetary conditions as ours, the mere possibility of being 
 forced to transact business in the more cumbrous metal 
 would be intolerable. The necessity imposed upon bankers 
 and others of providing a sufficient supply of both to meet 
 all demands would be adverse to economy in the use of 
 money, thus both adding to the expense and raising impedi- 
 ments to the settlement of business transactions. Here,
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. - 220 
 
 practically, no more silver would get into circulation, but 
 much more would have to bo kept in reserve at the Bank of 
 England and the Mint, either of which might be called upon 
 to meet large or sudden demands. Nothing can work better 
 than our system of restricting the use of silver by its limited 
 circulation as a token at an artificial value, and making gold, 
 or notes whose convertibility is secure, legal tenders fur 
 all but trifling amounts. Other nations, even where the 
 standard is silver, are finding the convenience of our system, 
 and the use of gold in preference to the heavier metal is be- 
 coming more desirable every day. 
 
 The introduction of such a system into our coinage could 
 only be efiected in one of two ways, either by replacing our 
 present coins by others of such a standard value as might 
 be agreed upon with other nations, say 1 5 1- to i ; or by the 
 addition to it of new full value pieces of such a size as would 
 keep them distinct from the token coins now current, say 
 those of four or five shillings — the fifth or fourth of the 
 pound sterling — which should contain the requisite amount 
 of pure metal to make them equivalent to gold in all trans- 
 actions either at home or abroad. In our present coinage 
 twenty shillings contain 1,614 S^'^' ^^ pure silver; those 
 proposed would require 1^753, an excess of rather more 
 than 8 i per cent. They would absorb, if the estimate of 20 
 millions as the amount in circulation be correct, at least a 
 million and a half of money, besides all the expense of re- 
 coinage, should new pieces be substituted for the old. It 
 is difficult to see what advantafjo as reg'ards internal circu- 
 lation could arise from cither course, or what difference it 
 would make in the exchange with other nations., over the 
 use of bar silver which now passes freely from one country 
 to another. The advancement of the price of silver in tho 
 liands of British holders, whether as coin, bullion, or plate 
 would bo a decided gain; but for this would bo sacrificed 
 tho favourable standing given us by the gold standard in the 
 face of the diminishing production of that metal and the in- 
 creasing supplies of silver. Should these continue or be
 
 2P)0 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 extended, and wo had the double standard, a drain of gold 
 would most certainly ensue, which would prove emban-as- 
 sing in the extreme. 
 
 The great difficulty with which we have to contend is 
 India. Mr. Seyd's proposition, ingenious as it is, to intro- 
 duce a new silver coin of 350"62 5 grs. fine, which should 
 be declared equivalent in value to four shillings, or one-fifth 
 of the pound sterling, is avowedly dependent for its suc- 
 cess upon a general agreement for a bi- metallic currency on 
 the basis of 154- to I. Colonel Smith's plan, of stopping 
 the coinage of rupees until by their scarceness they had at- 
 tained the artificial value of two shillings, concurrently with 
 the introduction of a ten-rupee gold piece identical with the 
 English sovereign, establishing a still higher ratio of 1 4*6 
 to I (which is the intrinsic value of our present English 
 silver coins) , could never be maintained unless other nations 
 agreed to adopt it ; since, however possible it may be to 
 keep a limited amount of token coinage in circulation, as we 
 do here, it would be utterly impossible to maintain it for 
 the whole currency of a nation. 
 
 Mr. Hendriks's proposal for the introduction of a ten- 
 rupee gold coin worth irths of the sovereign, and an altera- 
 tion of the silver rupee to 1 1 per cent, less pure silver than 
 at present, seems hardly practicable in the face of the pre- 
 sent reduced price of the metal. 
 
 Now all these schemes, as well as the new American 
 dollar, and various other arrangements, seem to be based 
 upon the fallacy that it is possible by any agreement or law 
 to fix an unalterable ratio between two substances the cir- 
 cumstances of whose production and employment are sub- 
 ject to constant variations. We have seen how impossible 
 it is to maintain an equilibrium in the value of gold at 
 different times, or even in difierent places at the same time. 
 It is, therefore, scarcely too much to assert that the attempt 
 to do so with silver must inevitably fail ; for although the 
 internal relation may be enforced by law, the conditions of 
 different countries are so diverse and fluctuating, that each
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 231 
 
 one in its external relations must be subject to ever-chang- 
 ing adaptations, suited to the position of affairs at the 
 moment when the exchanges of commodities, securities, or 
 bullion require to be effected. 
 
 The true wisdom would therefore appear to be found in 
 every country having but a single standard. For facility of 
 intercourse with other countries it would be well if that 
 standard were the same for all, and until some other sub- 
 stance of superior fitness be found, everything points to the 
 conclusion that the best standard is gold. It docs not, how- 
 ever, at all follow that it would be wise for every nation to 
 imitate the example of the German Government by changing 
 from the one metal to the other. The existing stocks of 
 gold are clearly insufficient to supply the wants of tho 
 world should this be done, and at the present price of silver, 
 to say nothing of that to which it would fall if it were 
 everywhere demonetized, such a step would entail heavy 
 and ultimately ruinous loss upon the countries making tho 
 change. Sound policy would seem to dictate that each 
 country should, for the present at least, maintain its existing 
 standard, and that all should put up with the inconveniences, 
 and even loss, which the diversity occasions. Least of all 
 would it be wise for England to forego tho advantage she 
 herself possesses in her gold standard, her convertible notes, 
 and her subsidiary silver and copper coinage. For India, 
 she should wait her time for the introduction of gold, and 
 meanwhile, hard as it is upon that country to be fettered Vjy 
 engagements to pay in gold, or according to the gold 
 standard, large sums which are collected in silver, it really 
 only amounts to a failure of revenue such as might have 
 arisen from other causes, and is a far lesser difficulty than 
 she will have to cope with when, as it assuredly must be, and 
 ihat at no distant date, her opium revenue is extinguished. 
 
 It will be asked, then, is nothing to be done ? Are all 
 tho distresses and inconveniences, public and private, per- 
 taining to tho present state of things to bo unmitigated ? 
 Are all the dcran;jrenjeuts in mercantile affairs to continue
 
 232 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 as thoy aro ? Tho answer to such questioners is two-fold. 
 Firstly : Let us see any remedy proposed which does not 
 create a disease far worse than the one it professes to cure. 
 Secondly : Is there any need for action ? Will not time 
 and patience bring round a recovery ? The depreciation 
 of silver commenced with the adverse turn in the balance of 
 om- trade^ and I firnaly believe that when trade recovers 
 from its present depression, such abundant use will be 
 found for all the silver as will restore it to its former rela- 
 tion to gold j and then the substitution of a gold for a 
 silver standard in India, though it will not effect any stable 
 relation of the one to the other, will obviate much of the 
 inconvenience resulting from the want of a uniform standard 
 for every portion of the same empire. It would be absurd 
 to say that such a restoration may not be retarded, advanced, 
 or even defeated altogether by some new discoveries or in- 
 creased production of either the one metal or the other; 
 but supposing the supplies to continue at the present rate, or 
 not greatly to vary from it, either the opening up of new 
 markets amongst a poor or uncivilized people, or the disper- 
 sion of a large number of our population to open up new 
 colonies or extend the old ones, will call into use quite as 
 much small change as will absorb all the silver yet available, 
 and thus correct the evil which is now the source of so 
 much disquietude. 
 
 X. — Concluding Remarks. 
 
 Slfortly to recapitulate the several phases of this question 
 which have thus passed under observation, we may observe : 
 
 I. That basing our calculations upon the best estimates 
 which can be obtained of the annual production of gold and 
 silver, and comparing the assumed stock of gold with the 
 movements of bullion and merchandise throughout the 
 world, there appears no reason to suppose that the existing 
 .supply is not amply suflScient for all the purposes of trade 
 as at present carried on. 
 
 II. That the general fall of prices in recent years has
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 2/53 
 
 neither been so regular nor so closely connected with the 
 supply of gold and silver, as to prove that alterations in the 
 purchasing power of the sovereign have been due wholly or 
 chiefly to an appreciation of gold. 
 
 III. That the variations in the value of gold itself, as 
 shown by the fluctuations in the price of the funds, and the 
 rates of interest charged for the use of money, prove that 
 it has no constant or unalterable value. 
 
 IV. That, in addition to the well-known eflfects on the 
 value of silver arising from the growing yield of the 
 American mines and the decrease in its use from its demo- 
 netization by Germany, there are others resulting from the 
 increased quantity of gold, the facilities for economizing its 
 use, and its natural superiority to silver, sufficient to 
 account in some measure for the depreciation of the inferior 
 metal. 
 
 V. That the coincidence of the fall in the price of silver 
 with the contraction and depression of trade renders it 
 probable that in this is to be found the most potent cause 
 of depreciation, and that the revival of trade \<n\\ in all 
 probability be accompanied by a restoration of its value. 
 
 VI. That it is not likely that any agreement to establish 
 a fixed ratio in the value of silver to gold could ever be 
 permanently maintained, or not be liable to disruption at 
 any moment from causes incapable of regulation or control. 
 
 VII. That it is a fallacy to suppose that the extent of 
 trade, and consequently the value of the medium through 
 which its transactions are settled, depends so much upon 
 tlio (juantity of money in existence as upon the assiduous 
 and judicious employment of productive power, the thrift 
 l)y which its products are accumulated, and the "vvisdoui 
 which governs their consumption or expenditure. 
 
 In conclusion, lot me say that I offer the foregoing 
 remarks and calculations in thorough consciousness of my 
 own inability to deal with a subject of so much intricacy 
 and so much gravity ; but also with the full knowledge that 
 honest labour, however imperfect iu its performance, never
 
 234 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 fails to be appreciated by the members of this Society, and 
 the earnest hope that however little there may be in what 
 I have written to enlighten those who are better informed 
 than myself, it will be followed by a discussion instructive 
 and interesting to all who may be present. 
 
 Postscript. — The point raised by Mr. Giffcn in the discus- 
 sion which followed the reading of this paper, as to the 
 meaning attached to the value of the pound, will be better 
 seen if some other standard bo assumed wherein to express 
 the value of gold, say consols ; we shall then speak of the 
 sovereign as worth I "2 5 or i"li consols, to express what 
 we now mean by the price of £ioo consols being 80 or 90. 
 The difference between the two prices may result cither 
 from the rising value of the consols or the falling value of 
 the gold. To which of the two it is due would depend 
 upon whether the ultimate caase lay with the one or the 
 other. So with regard to the altered prices of articles : in 
 practice it matters not how it comes to pass that the 
 sovereign purchases more or less, but in theory, and there- 
 fore in relation to other articles, everything depends upon 
 which of the two it is that has changed its circumstances so 
 as to produce the alteration. Political and other causes 
 influence the value of stocks and shares, but not to the 
 whole or principal part of the variation in price. This is 
 oftener due to the present abundance or scarcity of gold, 
 which really rises or falls in value just as silver or any other 
 article does. So with the price of goods. The change 
 may be either with them or with the gold, and to ascertain 
 in which it has taken place is essential to the discovery of 
 the cause, the provision of a remedy, or the forecasting of 
 the future. 
 
 Considerable difficulty arose on the consideration of 
 Mr. Giffon's paper, previously referred to, from the disparity 
 of results in his comparison between two years and those 
 which were then stated in brief, and are now shown in 
 detail.^ The one set of calculations was between 1873 and 
 ^ Vide " Statistical Journal," as before.
 
 THE SILVEK QUESTION. 
 
 235 
 
 1877, the other between 1872 and 1878, and it so happens 
 that there was a rise of price in many articles in 187o and a 
 fall in 1878, but in hoth of these years a considerable fall in 
 quantity.- It was in the latter part of 1872 that the coal 
 famine set in, producing in 1873 an abnormal price for that 
 article, and the many dependent upon it. Thus comparing 
 the exports for the two years : — 
 
 
 1873. 
 
 Over 1872. 
 
 Amoiiut uf altered value 
 due. 
 
 
 Tons. 
 
 Price. 
 
 Tons. 
 
 Trice. 
 
 To Quantity. 
 
 To Price. 
 
 Coals.... 
 
 12-63 
 I-14 
 079 
 
 £ 
 13-21 
 
 7-08 
 10-43 
 
 -0-57 
 
 — 0-19 
 
 — o-i6 
 
 £ 
 + 2-77 
 + 0-37 
 + 0-20 
 
 £ 
 
 — 0-45 
 
 — 0*96 
 
 — 1-72 
 
 £ 
 + 3-22 
 
 + 1-33 
 + 1-92 
 
 Piy iron 
 
 Kailway irou... 
 
 
 — j 30-72 
 
 — 4- 3-34 
 
 — 3-13 
 
 + 6-47 
 
 Thus, when measuring the two years by total value, the 
 increase of price conceals the decrease in quantity, and as 
 these two articles alone represent one-sixth of the whole of 
 the exports dealt with in Mr. Giffen'a table, they cover a 
 large portion of the difference. The same cause operated 
 to some extent to throw out the calculations for 1872 in the 
 other table. But for these inflated prices the decrease on 
 "Total British Produce," there shown as £45"26, would 
 have been £i 0*36 less. Again, for coals andiron, together 
 with the diminished cost of the imported raw material from 
 which many of the articles are manufactured, would cause 
 a shrinkage in value, and thus lessen the total to be brought 
 into comparison with the diminution due to quantity. 
 Making duo allowance for these causes, it is proved that of 
 the lower total value of the British exports in 1878 as com- 
 pared with 1872, two-fifths, if not one-half, represent an 
 absolute falling off in qxiantHij, and as this cannot by any 
 possibility indicate an appreciation of gold, it may not bo 
 assumed that the falling off in prices proves any alteration 
 to have taken place in the value of gold. That fall in price 
 is amply accounted for by the unwillingness or the inability
 
 236 ON SOME PHASES OF 
 
 of other nations to purchase our manufactures to the extent 
 they formerly did, and the necessity under which we are 
 placed of giving a larger quantity for the money in order 
 to effect sales at all. 
 
 It should also be remarked, in answer to one of the 
 questions, that in the foreign accounts of the gold and silver 
 production, ounces are converted into dollars at a fixed 
 rate, and dollars into pounds sterling at the nominal value 
 of 4s. each, so that the estimates really present a proper 
 basis for the comparison of quantities. Rupees also into 
 sterling at 10 to the £,. 
 
 An additional table (see Appendix), in compliance with 
 Mr. Giffen's suggestion, shows the countries whose produc- 
 tion is estimated in Table I. (p. 204), whilst Appendices B 
 and C ^ divide in like manner the values of bullion and 
 merchandise in the same table. 
 
 ^ Vide " Statistical Journal," as before.
 
 THE SILVER QUESTION. 
 
 237 
 
 APPENDIX. 
 
 Production of Cold and Silver throiifrJiout the World (Corrected as re- 
 gards the United States from the "■Financial lieview," published in 
 New York, 1879). Sir Hector M. Hay. 
 
 [In million £'8 to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Gohl. 
 
 Silver. 
 
 Years. 
 
 Australia. 
 
 United 
 States. 
 
 Me.xico 
 and South 
 America. 
 
 Russia. 
 
 Other 
 Couutries. 
 
 X'nited 
 .States. 
 
 Mexico 
 
 ami South 
 America. 
 
 Other 
 Countries. 
 
 18.52.... 
 
 2o'6o 
 
 12-00 
 
 I -00 
 
 2-45 
 
 0-50 
 
 _ 
 
 6-00 
 
 2'12 
 
 •5.3.... 
 
 14-14 
 
 l.-JOO 
 
 I -00 
 
 2-45 
 
 o'so 
 
 — 
 
 6-00 
 
 2*12 
 
 '.54 . . . . 
 
 9'54 
 
 12-00 
 
 I -00 
 
 2-45 
 
 0-50 
 
 — 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-12 
 
 '.5.5.... 
 
 12-07 
 
 noo 
 
 I -00 
 
 2-45 
 
 0-50 
 
 — 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-12 
 
 'r.6.... 
 
 14-27 
 
 n-oo 
 
 I-QO 
 
 2-7.5 
 
 0-50 
 
 — 
 
 600 
 
 2»3 
 
 •57.... 
 
 11-41 
 
 11-110 
 
 foo 
 
 2-75 
 
 0-50 
 
 — 
 
 600 
 
 2-13 
 
 '.58.... 
 
 10 -68 
 
 10-110 
 
 I 00 
 
 2-75 
 
 0-50 
 
 — 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-13 
 
 •69.... 
 
 10-82 
 
 10-00 
 
 o'90 
 
 2-75 
 
 0-50 
 
 0-02 
 
 600 
 
 2-13 
 
 18f,0.... 
 
 10-50 
 
 9-20 
 
 0-90 
 
 2-75 
 
 0-50 
 
 0-03 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-13 
 
 •til ... . 
 
 9-76 
 
 8-60 
 
 o'yo 
 
 3 00 
 
 0-50 
 
 0-40 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-14 
 
 •t>2.... 
 
 -935 
 
 7-84 
 
 0-90 
 
 3(10 
 
 0-50 
 
 0-90 
 
 6 00 
 
 2-14 
 
 '63.... 
 
 8 88 
 
 8-00 
 
 0-90 
 
 3-n 
 
 0-50 
 
 1-70 
 
 600 
 
 2-14 
 
 •64.... 
 
 9'i3 
 
 9 22 
 
 0-80 
 
 2-95 
 
 0-50 
 
 2-20 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-14 
 
 '65.... 
 
 882 
 
 10-64 
 
 080 
 
 3-28 
 
 0-50 
 
 2-25 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-14 
 
 '66.... 
 
 8-84 
 
 li»-70 
 
 0-80 
 
 3-38 
 
 0-50 
 
 2-00 
 
 6-00 
 
 2-14 
 
 •67.... 
 
 7-91 
 
 lo-:!5 
 
 0-70 
 
 3-35 
 
 0-50 
 
 2-70 
 
 6-00 
 
 2 14 
 
 '68.... 
 
 7-64 
 
 9-60 
 
 0-60 
 
 3-60 
 
 0-50 
 
 2-40 
 
 5-50 
 
 2-15 
 
 '69.... 
 
 6-31 
 
 9-90 
 
 0-50 
 
 4-03 
 
 0-50 
 
 2-40 
 
 5 00 
 
 2-10 
 
 1870.... 
 
 7-70 
 
 6-70 
 
 0-50 
 
 4 -.50 
 
 o'5o 
 
 3*40 
 
 5-50 
 
 2-00 
 
 '71.... 
 
 8-60 
 
 6-80 
 
 0-70 
 
 4 -.50 
 
 0-50 
 
 3-80 
 
 5-20 
 
 2-00 
 
 '72.... 
 
 7-30 
 
 7-60 
 
 070 
 
 4 -.50 
 
 0-50 
 
 400 
 
 5-20 
 
 2 '00 
 
 T.\.... 
 
 7-80 
 
 7-80 
 
 0-70 
 
 4-50 
 
 0-50 
 
 5-40 
 
 4-80 
 
 2-00 
 
 '74.... 
 
 5 "90 
 
 770 
 
 0-80 
 
 4 -.50 
 
 0-50 
 
 5-90 
 
 5 00 
 
 2-00 
 
 '75 
 
 570 
 
 8-110 
 
 080 
 
 4 -.50 
 
 0-50 
 
 640 
 
 5-00 
 
 2-00 
 
 •76.... 
 
 4-50 
 
 8 -.50 
 
 J-QO 
 
 4-50 
 
 0-50 
 
 7-80 
 
 5-00 
 
 2'00 
 
 '77.... 
 
 4-50 
 
 8-90 
 
 I 00 
 
 4-50 
 
 0-50 
 
 9-10 
 
 6-iX) 
 
 2-00 
 
 '78.... 
 
 4 'CO 
 
 7-80 
 
 I -00 
 
 4-50 
 
 0-50 
 
 7-70 
 
 6-00 
 
 2'00 
 
 
 246-67 
 
 253-85 
 
 22-90 
 
 93-75 
 
 i3"50 
 
 70-50 
 
 152-20 
 
 5636 
 
 Note. — These amount.s make up the totals shown in the table on pago 204.
 
 XI. 
 
 OxV THE Decay in the Export Trade op the United 
 Kingdom/ 
 
 MUCH attention has been given to the state of our ex- 
 port trade^ and the fact that for several years past 
 there has been a progressive decline in its total value. 
 Considerable discussion has taken place as to whether the 
 fall has been in the quantities of the goods we have sold or 
 the prices which they have realized ; and a large prepon- 
 derance of the opinions expressed has been, that it is due 
 to the latter rather than to the former cause. The Prime 
 Minister on two occasions especially, when the subject has 
 been under discussion, has drawn consolation from this con- 
 viction. Mr. Bonamy Price has treated it in the same light 
 in the '^ Contemporary Review/^ and Mr. Brassey in the 
 " Nineteenth Century/^ whilst most of the leading journals 
 have adopted the same theory. It cannot, therefore, be 
 unfitting to inquire upon what foundation it rests, or 
 whether the few voices which have been raised on the other 
 side may not have some reason for the view they take. 
 
 At first sight it may seem a very easy question to deter- 
 mine whether it be the volume or the value of the exports 
 which has suffered change, and a simple inspection of the 
 figures for any particular article will decide the point so far 
 as that article is concerned. Thus when we see that in 
 1872 we exported cotton piece goods to the extent of 
 
 ^ Read before Section F of the British Assoeiation, at Sheffield, 
 August, 1879. — " Statist," Sept. 6, 1879.
 
 EXPORT TRADE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. 230 
 
 3,o38 million yards at a value of £58,931,000, whilst in 
 1878 our exports were 3,618 million yards, the value of 
 which was £48,086,000, it is evident that the diffe- 
 rence in value is duo to a fall in price. Also when there 
 was an export of sheep's wool in the former year of 7,G05 
 million ll)s. at a value of £629,000, and in the latter of 
 C/iiO million lbs. at a value of £546,000, it is equally clear 
 that the lesser value is owing to diminished quantity, and an 
 easy calculation will show that the average price per lb. was 
 slightly higher in 1878 than in 1872. Again, with linen 
 piece goods the quantities were 245 million yards in 1872 
 and IGl millions in 1878, the respective values being 
 £7,700,000 and £4,91 7,000; it is at once seen that there 
 has been a serious falling off in quantity, whilst the average 
 price has varied but little. In like manner each specific 
 article speaks for itself, but the proportion in which it affects 
 the total result has to be ascertained in combination with 
 that of every other article, before it can bo discovered 
 whether on the whole the admitted fall in value received 
 has been occasioned by diminished quantities or reduced 
 prices. 
 
 Lord Beaconsfield's statement rested upon the authority of 
 a report made by Mr. Giffen, the head of the Statistical and 
 Commercial Department of the Board of Trade, comparing 
 the quantity and value of the goods exported in 1873 with 
 those in 1877, and showing that, whereas in the former 
 year the total declared value of the exports included in 
 the return was £192,433,000, and in the latter only 
 £147,800,000, the changes in the average prices had been 
 so great that had all the exports of 1877 been valued as 
 those of 1873, the total valuation would have amounted to 
 £191,530,000, or less than a million below that returned 
 for the former year. There are many articles of which the 
 statistical records do not show the quantities, but the values 
 only ; these are not included in the above figures, it being 
 impossible to subject them to the same treatment. Those 
 dealt with, however, represented 7o'l per cent, of the tottil
 
 240 ON THE DECAY IN THE EXrOKT TRADE 
 
 exports of 1873, and 74-6 por cent, of 1877. Tlio calcula- 
 tions are carefully worked out, and the deductions are un- 
 impeachable ; yet there is good reason to doubt the correct- 
 ness of the inference drawn, viz., that the export trade of 
 the country is suffering only in the prices and not in the 
 volume of our transactions. 
 
 Tables having the same object, and formed upon a some- 
 what similar basis, comparing the trade for a portion of 
 1872 and 1873, were published in '' Lloyd's List " in July, 
 1873, and that of 1872 with 1877, and of 1877 with 1878 in 
 the " Economist ^^ of July, 1878, and January, 1879, and 
 the " Statistical Society's Journal" for June of the present 
 year contains one contrasting 1872 with 1878. These all 
 point to a real deficiency of quantity as well as value, the 
 latter table showing that whereas the total difference on a 
 value of £195,820,000 in the specified articles for the two 
 years was £5 7,360,000 ; of this amount £45,260,000 only 
 was due to a difference in price, £12,100,000 to an actual 
 diminution in quantity. That is, articles which in 1878 
 were valued at but £138,460,000 would at the prices of 
 1872 have amounted to £183,720,000, or 32-69 per cent, 
 more. 
 
 A similar disparity is manifested by a comparison be- 
 tween the exports for the first six months of the present 
 year and the same period of 1872. In these the difference 
 on a value of £83,460,000 was £28,500,000, of which 
 £21,620,000 arose from altered prices, and £6,88o,000 
 from diminished quantity. That is, the articles which in 
 1879 were valued at but £54,960,000 would at the prices 
 of 1872 have amounted to £76,580,000, or 39*34 per cent, 
 more. 
 
 The main sources from which these variations arise will 
 be more clearly seen from the following selection (Table I.) 
 of the seven principal articles of which the foreign export 
 trade consists, and comparing together the three periods 
 already alluded to, that of 1877 with 1873, 1878 with 1872, 
 and the first half of 1879 with the corresponding portion of
 
 OF THE UNITED KIXGDO>[. 
 
 241 
 
 1872 ; sliowing in each case the total value of the exports 
 in the later year, and the amount wherein it varies from the 
 earlier one, dividing this variation into the respective suras 
 arising from differences in quantity and in price. These 
 seven descriptions of goods embrace between 00 and 70 per 
 cent, of the whole export trade, that is of those which, from 
 being recorded in both quantity and value, permit of being 
 thus analyzed, and are fairly representative of those not 
 thus included. Of goods coming under other denomina- 
 tions, such as apparel, chinaware, machinery, &c., all of 
 which are shown in value only, it may bo assumed that they 
 very much follow the same rules as those that are specified, 
 
 Table I. 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Goods Kxported. 
 
 Cutton Manfs 
 
 (6 Mo.)... 
 Jute „ 
 
 (6 Mo.).. 
 Linen ,, 
 
 (6 Mo.)... 
 Woollen „ 
 
 (GMo.)... 
 Coals 
 
 (GM,..)... 
 Copper 
 
 (Ol^Io.)... 
 Iron 
 
 (6 Mo.)... 
 
 ToUils of) 
 8 pee i tied '- 
 Articles ) (G Mo.)... 
 
 Yours. 
 
 1877 
 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 U 
 
 •7 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 1877 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 1877 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 1877 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 1877 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 1877 
 '78 
 '79 
 
 with 1873 
 ., '72 
 
 '72 
 
 1873 
 '72 
 '72 
 
 1873 
 '72 
 '72 
 
 1873 
 
 '72 
 '72 
 
 187;3 
 
 '72 
 '72 
 
 1873 
 '72 
 '72 
 
 1873 
 '7^ 
 '7a 
 
 1877 
 '78 
 "79 
 
 1873 
 
 "72 
 
 Tot 111 
 Vulii. 
 Later 
 Years. 
 
 Incrense or Decrease 
 in Value due to 
 
 2o-n 
 
 18-40 
 
 125-02 
 12062 
 54-96 
 
 40-20 
 21-6-2
 
 242 ON THE DECAY IN THE EXPORT TRADE 
 
 and would not materially alter the result if it were possible 
 to take them into the comparison. 
 
 Collecting thus these specified articles, it appears that 
 there was exported of them in 1877 a total value of 
 £125*02 millions, which fell short of the trade in them in 
 1873 to the extent of £42*30; and that dividing this fall 
 into the amount due respectively to diminished quantities 
 and prices, there was £2'lO of the one, and £40*20 of the 
 other, or at the rate of rather more than 1 to 20. These 
 years of 1877 and 1873 were the two which have been relied 
 on as establishing the fact that the fall in total value has 
 been almost entirely in pi-ice ; but, as will be shown pre- 
 sently, this conclusion will not bear a close investigation. 
 Extending the comparison to one year further back and 
 another further forward (1878-72), an interval of six years 
 instead of four, and dealing with a total value of £i20'62 
 for the later, it will be seen that the fall from the value of 
 the earlier year was £56" 1 3, of which £14' i 2 arose from 
 lessened quantities, and £42*0 1 from lower prices. Upon 
 comparing the first half of the present year with the same 
 months of 1872, the value for this year is £54*96, or £28*50 
 below that of 1872, divisible into £6*88 and £21*62 for 
 quantity and price, these two periods being in the propor- 
 tion of about 1 to 3 of quantity to price. But even this 
 relation of the one to the other is subject to large coitcc- 
 tions, and would not be supported by a comparison with 
 
 1871 instead of 1872. That year has not been selected on 
 account of an alteration in the system of accounts which 
 then took place interposing a difiiculty. 
 
 It will be remembered by those who have at all watched 
 the market prices of various articles, that in 1872 there set 
 in what may be termed a famine of coal, during which 
 almost fabulous prices were obtained for this article. For 
 the eleven preceding years the export price had averaged 
 9 64s. per ton; the highest of any year not having ex- 
 ceeded 10*396'., nor the lowest fallen below 9s.; but for 
 
 1872 the average was 15*83.'., increasing to 20*905. in 1873,
 
 OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. 2-43 
 
 then by successive stages coming down to 9*46.9. for last 
 year, and 8.91.?. for the first half of the present year. Nor 
 was this rise confined to coal ; it necessarily extended to all 
 articles whose cost was increased by that of the fuel em- 
 ployed in their manufacture. To take pig-iron as an 
 example. The average for the years 18G0-71 had been 
 57'76s., the limit of variation between the highest and 
 lowest years having been but 10*755. It rose, however, in 
 1872 to lOO"85s., and in 1873 to I24"65s., fiiUing again to 
 57'34s.in 1877, 53*525. in 1878, and 48*635. in the present 
 year. The effect of this rise was to raise the percentage 
 which these two articles bore to the whole exports of 
 British and Irish produce exported from the United King- 
 dom from 3'2 in 1871 to 8'0 in 1873, or, including every 
 description of iron, from 14*3 to 20*0. Now, it is obvious 
 that any comparison based on such inflated prices as these, 
 when contrasted with other articles, might, as in fact it did, 
 when the two descriptions were brought into one common 
 total, conceal an extensive decrease in the quantities of 
 those articles which maintained a more equable price. A 
 grocer who found his gross receipts increased by 20 per 
 cent, might be gaining 25 on his tea, whilst losing 5 on his 
 sugar, without being conscious of the fact until he analyzed 
 the different sources of profit and loss. We must, there- 
 fore, before we can arrive at a correct appreciation of the 
 relative influences of the changes in volume and value in 
 the whole of the exports, make large deductions from the 
 value of the earlier years on account of these exceptional 
 prices. 
 
 But yet another correction of the figures is needed. 
 Many of our articles of export are manufactured from 
 materials of foreign gi-owth, the cost of which varies con- 
 siderably at difterent dates ; and any accurate comparison 
 between the values of the finished exports at the two periods 
 requires those values to be reduced by the sums paid for 
 the raw material of which they are composed before the 
 relative rise or fall in price or quantity can be rightly
 
 244 ON THE DECAY IN THE EXPORT TKADE 
 
 estimated. Cotton is a prominent example of this, and it 
 so happens that its cost varied very much in 1872 and 1873 
 from what it did in 1877, 1878, and 1879 — viz., 84s. I id. 
 and Sos. yl. being the average price of importations in the 
 former years, 58.S. jd., 56s., and 43s. id. in the latter. 
 
 In the following table (II.) there are shown, for each of 
 the three periods which have been already brought into 
 comparison, the actual effect upon the collected values of 
 the seven specified classes of articles, of the inflated prices 
 of coals and iron, and these, together with the estimated 
 cost of the foreign cotton used, have been deducted from 
 the earlier years, in order to obtain a fair net value for com- 
 parison, the cost of cotton being in like manner deducted 
 from the later years. All minor variations in the value of 
 the articles influenced by the coal and iron employed in 
 their production, or entering into their composition, have 
 been disregarded, although in the aggregate these must be 
 far from inconsiderable. The influence also of the price of 
 raw cotton on the values of the many articles of export, 
 such as wearing apparel, haberdashery, &c., and also the 
 efiect of the lessened cost of other foreign materials used 
 in the manufacture of other export goods, has not been 
 reduced to figures. The total values thus brought into 
 comparison are for 1873 £lI3'88, with £98^02 in 1877, 
 showing a fall of £i5"86, or at the rate of 13'9 per cent. 
 For 1872 £126-41, with £95-62 in 1878, a faU of £30-79, 
 or at the rate of £24-4 per cent.; and for the first half of 
 1879 £60-77, witli ^43'46, a fall of £17-31, or 28-4 per 
 cent. We arrive then at this result : that in the first period 
 a fall of £15-86 must be divided into £13-76 due to price, 
 and £2-10 to quantity, or in the ratio of very nearly 6 to 1 . 
 In the second period £30-79, into £16-67 to price, and 
 £14-12 to quantity, or the ratio of 13 to 11. In the third 
 period £17-31, into £10-43 to price, and £6-88 to quantity, 
 a ratio of VI h to 11.
 
 OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. 245 
 
 Table IL 
 
 [In Millions £"8 to two decimals.] 
 
 6 Mo. 
 1873. 1872. 1872. 
 
 Value of Specified Articles£167'52 £176-75 £83-46 
 
 Deck. Glial £^'M ...£4-06 ... £ro7 
 
 Iron I3"i7 •■• 9'28 ... 4-12 
 
 Cotton 3400 ... 3700 ... I7"50 
 
 . 53-64 50-34 22-69 
 
 Net value for Comparison... 113-88 126-41 6077 
 
 6 Mo. 
 
 1877. 1878. 1879. 
 
 ;^I25-02 ;^I20-62 £S\9^ 
 
 Less Cotton 27-00 2500 11-50 
 
 9802 95-62 43-46 
 
 ^ct. 
 Fall in Value 15-86=13-9 ^ct. 30-79=24-4^ct. 17-31=28-4 
 
 Due to Price 13-76=120 ,, 16-67=13-2 ,, l(»-43=17-0 
 
 „ Quantity.... 2-10= 1-9 ,, 14-12=11-1 ,, 6-88=11-4 
 
 Two or three observations on these results may be made 
 in passing-. First, that these several deductions from the 
 values of the respective years really account for some con- 
 siderable portion of the lessened total amounts for which 
 the products of our industry have been sold, or rather at 
 which they have been valued. Thus, still keeping to the 
 specified articles, at first sight it would appear that a trade 
 amounting to £167,000,000 in 1873 had dwindled to 
 £125,000,000 in 1877, or a reduction of £42,000,000, 
 whereas the real difference in value was but £ 1 6,000,000. 
 That amounting in 1872 to £177,000,000 had apparently 
 sunk to 121 millions in 1878, a fall of 56 millions, but 
 should only be deemed to bo 31 millions ; and that of the 
 first half of 1872, amounting to 83 millions, had been lowered 
 to 55 millions in 1879, or 28 millions; whereas 17 millions 
 will represent the real extent of depression. Viewed in 
 this light, the severity of our loss in export trade is con- 
 siderably mitigated. 
 
 In the second place, however, it must be admitted that 
 there is no abatement, but rather an increase, of diminution 
 in the actual net amounts we are receiving from the sale of
 
 246 ON THE DECAY IN THE EXPOIIT TKADE 
 
 our commodities. Sixteen millions in 1877, 31 millions in 
 1878, and 17 millions for the first half of 1879 afford no 
 indication that the tide is ceasing to eljb. 
 
 Thirdly, if the comparison of one year's export trade with 
 that of its predecessor affords no grounds for satisfaction, 
 neither does comparison with our imports give much or any 
 reason for congratulation. It is true that the balance of 
 trade — or the difference between the sums we have to pay 
 for the things we buy, over and above that we receive for 
 those we sell — is each year lessening, but solely for the 
 reason that our imports are decreasing in value faster than 
 our exports are. Much of this arises from falling prices, 
 and, happily, in part, from the diminution in the amount of 
 grain we have this year [1878-9] required from abroad; but 
 it is an undeniable fact that we are taking lesser supplies of 
 the raw materials which form the staples of our industries 
 both for home and foreign use. It is well to practise 
 economy in consumption when the necessity arises, but real 
 prosperity is to be looked for in an increasing sale of our 
 manufactures, leading to an increasing demand for the mate- 
 rials from which they are formed. 
 
 Reverting, however, to the main question : these figures, 
 if they have any value at all, demonstrate the fallacy of the 
 too often expressed opinion that the diminished value of 
 the goods exported lies altogether, or almost wholly, in 
 the fall of prices. They distinctly prove that which the 
 experience of merchants and shipowners has already told 
 them — that there is a very serious lessening in the demand 
 for our produce and manufactures. It may not be shown in 
 cotton or jute manufactures, but it is in linen and woollen, 
 to an extent which far outweighs any growth in the others. 
 Coals, too, do not diminish in quantity, nor does copper ; 
 but in iron it assumes proportions so alarming that we may 
 well welcome with joy the hopes now expressed that 
 American orders to this town are the heralds of approaching 
 revival. 
 
 If, then, it be impossible to deny that the lessened value
 
 OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. 247 
 
 of our exports is not confined to a general fall in prices, 
 there are two reasons amongst others with which many 
 seem to be satisfied. The one is that the change is not so 
 much in the real value of the articles as in that of the gold 
 by which that value is estimated — that an appreciation of 
 gold is taking place, in consequence of which its purchasing 
 power is increased. The answer to this assertion is simple. 
 If such were the case, the rise in price would apply to all 
 articles equally, whereas there is no such equable or uniform 
 change of prices as would indicate much alteration in the 
 value of gold. The fluctuations are too great to be due to 
 any such cause, at any rate in any marked degree. The 
 other reason given is that prices are everywhere falling, and 
 must soon rise again in like manner. The reply to this is 
 not so easy; for it is apparent to all that this alteration of 
 prices docs not arise from causes so deep-seated as to render 
 a recovery from them very doubtful. One thing is certain, 
 that at the present time we have to part with a much larger 
 quantity of goods for each sovereign we obtain, and that 
 notwithstanding we do this, the number of sovereigns we 
 receive is continually growing less. 
 
 It is not the purpose of this paper to enter upon an 
 examination into the causes from which this decay of our 
 trade has arisen, nor to inquire by what methods it may be 
 met or reversed. This has been done to some extent by 
 the writer in papers read before the Statistical Societies of 
 London and Manchester, the discussion on which has been 
 full. Briefly, however, it may be stated that the first step 
 is retrenchment. The country must consume less. It is 
 not one class alone, but all classes who have been inflated 
 by prosperity, and become extravagant in expenditure or 
 waste. It must then strive to produce more, not of those 
 things which foreigners decline to buy, but of those which 
 wo at present buy from them, until they learn the folly of 
 shutting out our goods to the detriment of their own pro- 
 ducers of the things we are willing to take in exchange. 
 Yet another course is open to us, dependent as we are for
 
 248 ON THE DECAY IN THE EXrORT TRADE 
 
 our food upon foreign supplies, and, should the demand for 
 our manufactures still continue to decline — over-full as we 
 shall bo with population at home — we must occupy the vast 
 regions we possess abroad, and thus raise up new customers 
 with whom we may exchange our goods, to their advantage 
 as well as ours. 
 
 But there are not wanting those amongst us who, whether 
 from their place in Parliament, in the columns of the public 
 journals, or through the medium of such Associations as 
 this and others, openly advocate a reversal of the com- 
 mercial policy under which our country has risen to its late 
 pi'osperity. At one time under the specious claim for reci- 
 procity, at another under the bolder plea for protection, 
 they seek to bind again the fetters from which trade and 
 commerce have been emancipated. To assertions such as 
 they make, with no little shoiv of soundness, we owe much 
 of the growing desire for either reciprocity or protection, 
 and these are greatly aided by the injudicious arguments of 
 free-traders themselves. These too often forget that free 
 trade is not an active but a negative principle or policy, 
 and they claim for it all the success which has followed its 
 adoption. Now, free trade confers no advantages or powers 
 which were not previously existent ; it but removes ob- 
 structions to the development of that which is inherent in 
 those whom it benefits, and had it not been for the discoveries 
 of gold and the adaptation of steam, combined with the gifts 
 of nature and the acquisitions of science, the introduction of 
 freedom of trade could never have given us the pre-eminence 
 in manufacture and commerce to which we have attained. 
 The exclusive possession of these is now contested by other 
 nations, and will be still more so when they too shake off 
 the self-imposed bondage of a restrictive policy. In a 
 country like ours, which is absolutely dependent upon the 
 produce of other lands for the maintenance of the life of its 
 population, and can only obtain the food which that life 
 needs for its sustenance by the sale of its manufactures 
 abroad, the fullest and freest expansion is necessary. The
 
 OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. 249 
 
 home trade can never flourish if the foreign be destroyed, 
 for much of the one is but the distribution of the surplus 
 wealth which the other creates. Let protection be accorded 
 to the mechanic who devotes his labour and skill to the 
 production of the articles which he exchanges for the food 
 grown for him at home, and it cannot be denied to the 
 agriculturist who grows that food. Let the food of the 
 man who labours for the foreign market be taxed, and he 
 can no longer compete with the foreigner whose food is 
 untaxed, and thus he will cease to be a customer for the 
 produce of the protected agriculturist. 
 
 It is plain, however, that our commercial relations — and 
 with them, too, our political and economic conditions — are 
 being exposed to a severe strain, the continuance of which 
 is probably not yet approaching its end. It is an ungrate- 
 ful task thus to take the pessimist view, and in so doing to 
 be exposed to suspicion ; but the true philanthropist, the 
 real worker for his country's welfare, must not, therefore, 
 shrink from laying bare the actual position in which its 
 trade and commerce stand, if thereby he can arouse attention 
 to the latent sources of evil which lie beneath the surface. 
 Let us but fail to recognize our faults, to unite in learning 
 the lessons which chastisement is designed to teach, to 
 promote that spirit of unity and concord in thought and 
 action which can alone enable us to stem the current of 
 adversity whilst it lasts ; and we shall see the nations whom 
 we have hitherto led in the progress of civilization and 
 wealth stepping into our place, and enjoying the supremacy 
 we shall renounce.
 
 XII. 
 
 On the Social Aspect op Teade Depeession.' 
 
 THE depression of trade under which the country suffers 
 has continued for so long a time, exists under con- 
 ditions so different from those of any preceding seasons, 
 and is as yet so unmitigated in its severity, that it may 
 well be said to form an epoch in the commercial history of 
 our country ; the more so that it is now accompanied by an 
 equally serious state of depression in agriculture. Whether 
 this sister form of suffering be the occasion or the result of 
 that which affects trade, or whether it be a fortuitous occur- 
 rence that the two should accompany each other ; there 
 can be no question that it complicates the matter greatly, 
 causes it to exercise a greater influence over a wider area 
 than did either exist without the other, and renders the 
 present period a more marked one as it affects the social 
 position in which the country stands. An inquiry into the 
 special facts relating to either trade or agricultural depres- 
 sion falls properly within the province of the statistician, 
 just as the investigation of the causes from which they 
 spring, and the remedies with which they should be met, 
 belongs to those who are versed in the principles and 
 practice of political economy. Although neither of these 
 lines of research lies without the range of subjects which 
 may be followed by a Social Science Congress, it is not 
 with them that it is proposed to deal on this occasion ; but 
 
 ^ Read at the Meeting of the Social Science Congress, Manchester, 
 1879.
 
 SOCIAL ASPECT OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 251 
 
 rather to take the condition of things as they now stand, 
 and to consider briefly the social state as thus presented to 
 our view. Some little allusion, however, to the history of 
 the case, and some attention to its special circumstances are 
 absolutely necessary to an understanding of the social con- 
 dition we have to consider. 
 
 It has been noticed by many that crises such as these 
 are of periodic occurrence, inflation being followed by de- 
 pression, and adversity giving place to prosperity, at 
 intervals of ten or eleven years ; and the fact that these 
 periods are coincident with marked appearances on the 
 solar disc has been thought to show that, in some way or 
 other, there is an intimate connection between the spots 
 which darken the sun's visage and the gloom which over- 
 spreads the mercantile world. It has even been started as 
 a theory, by no mean authority, that the abstraction of the 
 sun's heat so lessens the earth's fertility as to diminish the 
 amount of food produced, depriving consumers of their 
 power to purchase our manufactures, and thus deranging 
 the whole course of our trading and manufsicturing opera- 
 tions. But apart from the circumstance that the present 
 depression has been growing for at least half of the supposed 
 cycle, and even if it have yet reached its maximum growth 
 must necessarily occupy some years in the process of pass- 
 ing away — thus filling up the whole or nearly all of the 
 period allotted to both depression and inflation — the cha- 
 racter of the present times is so different from that of any 
 which have gone before, as to suggest a different origin, 
 and to predicate a diff'ercnt course towards recovery. On 
 former occasions some national drain on our resources, or 
 some natural loss of production, has pushed us downwards, 
 or some sudden accession of wealth, or unexpected openings 
 of new channels for trade have borne us upwards, until the 
 force of cither being spent, we have been unable to sustain 
 the elevation we had reached. These have been temporary 
 ebbs and flows of the same tide, but now there seems, 
 besides all these, to be a steady current setting to leeward.
 
 252 ON THE SOCIAL ASPECT 
 
 which, unless wo can find means to resist or to turn it, 
 threatens to strand us amongst the breakers which far- 
 sighted thinkers seem to discover ahead of us. If this be 
 so, it is surely important to know from whence it comes 
 and whither it is tending ; and it may not be useless to 
 inquire whether, paradoxical as it may appear, it is not 
 this : that whereas in former times the streams of produc- 
 tion and consumption, though not always flowing with 
 uniform velocity, did yet keep average pace with each 
 other ; of late years consumption has sped faster than pro- 
 duction — consumption, I mean, of that which is absolutely 
 essential to continued sustenance of individual and national 
 life. Hence, amidst all our abounding wealth, we are in 
 no little danger of absolute poverty. The tenants of a 
 besieged fortress may possess no end of gold or treasure, 
 and yet perish for lack of bread. The State which con- 
 sumes more of the necessaries of life than it produces may 
 have accumulated any amount of capital by past industry 
 and trade, and yet be in abject want if that capital be not 
 held in a form which permits of its exchange for the means 
 of subsistence. 
 
 In the earliest stage of the world's history, when, as we 
 believe, but two individuals were in existence, and the earth 
 ceased spontaneously to produce the requisite supplies of 
 food ; it was ordained, " in the sweat of thy face shalt thou 
 eat bread," and the condition on which man's life depended 
 was that he should " till the ground." When, again, popula- 
 tion was reduced to the eight who emerged from the ark to 
 " be fruitful and multiply and replenish the earth," the green 
 herb of the field needed the husbandry of a Noah ; the wild 
 flocks of the plain were to be hunted by a Ximrod and an 
 Esau ; and the cattle of the fold to be tended by a Jacob. 
 The three necessaries of life, food, raiment, and shelter, 
 could only be procured by the bestowal of labour ; and in 
 a barbaric state of life we may well believe that little else 
 resulted from the employment of man's powers. Each 
 individual family or community had to produce for itself
 
 OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 253 
 
 that which it consumed, and could only exist or increase as 
 production was kept up to, or in excess of, consumption. 
 As, however, knowledge and civilization advanced, the 
 economy of labour and the aid of art enabled more to be 
 produced than there was a need to consume, and production 
 took the form in a great measure of that which ministered 
 to comfort, to luxury, to the increase of wealth. The 
 strong, the thrifty, the wise became the possessors of 
 wealth, or devoted themselves to the production of that 
 which they could exchange for the means of sustenance ; 
 and so far as the necessaries of life were concerned, man- 
 kind became divided into the two great classes of consumers 
 and producers. It mattered not, then, whether each indi- 
 vidual or community produced food or other essentials for 
 his or its own consumption, provided he either had or pro- 
 duced that with which these could be purchased. Two 
 things, however, were absolutely requisite — that the neces- 
 saries for the whole should be produced by some one or 
 more, and that those who did not produce for themselves 
 should be able to induce or compel the producers to part 
 with their superabundant stores. 
 
 Bearing in mind these principles, but not stopping to 
 trace their application to the progress of our country in 
 knowledge, civilization, and wealth, we find that she 
 embraces three classes in her community. Those who 
 produce nothing themselves, but, either by inheritance or 
 the power of ministering to the wants or tastes of others, 
 obtain their share not only of the necessaries but the super- 
 fluities of life ; those who produce that which they can 
 exchange for what they need ; and those who actually pro- 
 duce these necessaries, not only for themselves but for the 
 other members of the community. So long as in any 
 country these three orders can maintain their due relation 
 to each other, and sufficient labour is employed in producing 
 the means of subsistence, it may prosper and increase in 
 wealth, because the labour employed produces more than 
 is consumed, and the surplus goes into accumulation. It
 
 254 ON THE SOCIAL ASPECT 
 
 may be that some have too little, and some too much ; 
 there may be unnatural and unhappy diversities of con- 
 dition amongst its members, but as a whole it goes on and 
 prospers without external aid, or such aid as it derives 
 from abroad in the acquisition of substance is compensated 
 for by the products of its art or its industry. Advancing 
 one step further : just as to the individual it is of no conse- 
 quence whether that which he produces — be it the product 
 of the hand or the brain — is suited to his wants, so long as 
 that which is so suited is produced by others and procured 
 by exchange ; so to the country it mattered not whether its 
 products were such as its consumers needed, or such as were 
 sought by other countries in exchange for that which sup- 
 plied these needs. In such case the producers of that 
 which procured food and necessaries really stood in the 
 same position aa those who directly produced these essen- 
 tials ; but it was absolutely requisite, not only that the 
 supplies for consumption could be obtained, but that they 
 should be obtainable by means of the products of labour 
 so bestowed as to produce what was disposable in ex- 
 change. 
 
 Now England, by which is meant the whole United 
 Kingdom, is just in that position. For a long series of 
 years she fed herself, and obtained the further supplies she 
 needed by exchanging her products for those of other 
 nations ; and, owing to her capital and power, obtained 
 them on advantageous terms. Then, though from the 
 growth of her population and the increase of individual 
 consumption she became dependent upon other lands for 
 her necessary supplies of food and other articles, she was 
 still independent and prosperous, because those lands re- 
 quired and obtained from her the products they took in 
 exchange for the supplies they gave. Now, whether it be 
 for a time only or in perpetuity, many of the products of 
 our industry and skill have ceased to be convertible into 
 those supplies ; and thus the balance has been destroyed. 
 We are at the present consuming more of that which is
 
 OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 255 
 
 really or conventionally necessary for our subsistence than 
 we are either directly or indirectly producing. Hence the 
 rapid spread of adversity and the deepening cry of distress 
 from all ranks and classes of society. 
 
 It is the social aspect of this national condition which 
 forms the proper subject of this Paper, and apology is 
 needed for so long a digression from it. One word more, 
 however, must be pardoned. This statement of the case is 
 fully open to criticism, but to shelve it under the cry of 
 pessimism, anti-free-trade, protectionism or reciprocity- 
 heresy, is as absurd as it is unjust. If the evils exist, and 
 who can deny that they do ? let us honestly and carefully 
 try to discover whence they arise and in what manner they 
 may best be dealt with. 
 
 It was in the years 1872 and 1873 that our trading pro- 
 sperity appeared to have reached the greatest elevation it has 
 ever attained, since when to the present time it has been 
 continuously falling. Just as we may best estimate the 
 unknown depth of a mountain valley by comparison with 
 the height of a known hill, so may we best gauge the trading 
 depression by contrasting it with the late elevation. The 
 height of the one we know, for we have been descending 
 rapidly ; whether we have yet touched the lowest depth re- 
 mains to be seen. There are not wanting grounds for hope 
 that it is so ; but the existence of any solid basis on which 
 to rest a settled belief is not yet clearly visible. During 
 the whole series of years that have elapsed since she entered 
 upon her career as a trading and manufacturing nation, 
 besides accumulating the products of her own 8ur])lus 
 labour — the surplus beyond that expended in raising the 
 means of subsistence for her own labourers — England had 
 been drawing to herself a considerable portion of other 
 nations' produce. At one period, by force of arms, con- 
 quering peoples weaker or less civilized than herself and 
 taking tribute from them ; not as of old by actual forced 
 contributions to her revenue, but for the support of her 
 officers and servants administering the government, or from
 
 256 ON THE SOCIAL ASPECT 
 
 the gains of her trade ; both of these to a considerable ex- 
 tent being remitted home in the shape of produce. It is, 
 however, doubtful whether there is ever any permanent ac- 
 cession of wealth from conquest, for the waste of life, the 
 outlay of money, and the expenditure of power, really con- 
 sume more than they obtain. At another, by the discoveries 
 of the precious metals gaining the power to purchase, 
 though here again it is more than probable that the labour 
 expended in searching for — and the lavish waste of — the 
 gold and silver when found, have really been equal to the 
 value secured. At other times — and this with varying 
 seasons of productive or unproductive trade, though, on the 
 whole, more of the former than the latter — exchanging the 
 products of her own industry for that of others, or increas- 
 ing the value of those products by the further employment 
 of skill in fitting them for use. By all these means there 
 has been a constant addition to her own wealth. She may 
 have given ample return to those from whom she drew these 
 accessions by the introduction of art and science, the esta- 
 blishment of order, the development of resources, and the ad- 
 vancement of civilization, morality, and religion; but there 
 can be no question that England has, and still does acquire 
 and retain, by appropriation to the purposes of her own con- 
 sumption, enjoyment, or accumulation, a large share of the 
 labouring power of the world. How great a portion it would 
 be a curious and not uninstructive statistical employment to 
 estimate and compile. It is to this constant absorption of the 
 results of other men's labours, as well as to her own internal 
 progress and appreciation, that England owes the supremacy 
 she obtained and the social position which so distinctly 
 marked the period of her inflated prosperity. At first, the 
 conquerors and the actual residents in, or traders with, 
 foreign countries or our colonial possessions, were those who 
 thus became benefited. Then the capitalists and manufac- 
 tui'ers through whom were produced the staple articles 
 of our commerce ; then the artisans by whose manual 
 labour these were created, and the labourers and seamen
 
 OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 257 
 
 employed in their transport, all claimed a share in the profits 
 of our foreign trades. Then followed the owners of land 
 and of the mineral products derived from under the soil, 
 who exacted increased rents and royalties. Following upon 
 these came all those who lived by collecting and distributing 
 what others produced or consumed, and the professional 
 class who ministered to the wants, and lived upon the ex- 
 penditure of those who thus grew rich. Beyond all these 
 must be named the horde of speculators, many honest and 
 useful in the exercise of their foresight and talents, but 
 many rapacious and dishonest in grasping that which other 
 men had exhausted their bodily and mental powers in pro- 
 ducing ; sweeping into their nets the savings of a lifetime 
 laid by for the support of old age, or the hardly-won pro- 
 vision for those dependent upon the bread-winner whilst 
 living, and that which he left behind him when taken 
 away. 
 
 There thus arose a general diffusion of wealth ; an almost 
 universal rise of prices ; an extravagance of expenditure, not 
 confined to any class ; a greed in the race of acquisition, and 
 a recklessness in the means by which it was obtained ; an 
 unscrupulousness in the transactions of every-day life which 
 exercised influences of the most unf;ivourable character upon 
 the conditions in which society existed. Easily acquired 
 wealth was lavishly squandered ; dishonest gains were hoarded 
 by the miser, or dissipated by the spendthrift ; every form 
 of luxurious living and sensual gratification was adopted, 
 invented, and indulged in. Nor was this all ; those who had 
 by the most upright conduct, the most patient exercise of 
 talent, the most assiduous devotion to the lawful employment 
 of their powers become possessed of property or income — and 
 especially those whoso fixed incomes admitted of no aug- 
 mentation — were drawn into an undue expenditure either 
 actually or in desire. Habits were being formed, plans in 
 life pursued, time and substance employed, in methods 
 which, however pleasing and even elevating to tho few, 
 were by no means calculated for the real advancement even 
 
 s
 
 258 ON THE SOCIAL ASPECT 
 
 of those fevy, still less of the many who form the bulk of the 
 nation. Just as England herself appropriated more than 
 her fair share of the world's substance, so was her portion 
 of that wealth unequally distributed amongst the different 
 members of her own community. Extremes of affluence 
 and destitution — the continuance of which are wholly incom- 
 patible with any real prosperity — existed side by side. It 
 would take too long to trace out the relation of cause and 
 effect ; but it is too true, that between the satins of St. 
 James's and the rags of St. Giles's, the luxurious living of 
 Belgravia and Manchester and the squalid misery of the 
 courts and alleys in their immediate proximity, the trifling 
 loungers of Pall Mall and the nightly throngs of the Hay- 
 market, there is a much closer connection than many know 
 or will be disposed to admit. The social aspect of trade 
 inflation was unsatisfactory in the extreme ; it carried with 
 it the absolute certainty of its own overthrow. 
 
 Now the point upon which all this turned was the con- 
 tinued progress of our export trade. With a constantly in- 
 creasing population to be fed, and a stationary or retrograde 
 home production of food, our very existence depends upon 
 our ability to produce that which other nations will exchange 
 for food ; and this dependence is the more entire in propor- 
 tion to the increase of average consumption which has grown 
 up with our growth in wealth. In like manner with other 
 necessaries, or those things which habit or education lead us 
 to consider to be necessary. No doubt we have large re- 
 sources abroad in the shape of debts on which interest is 
 paid, shares in undertakings which may be profitable, earn- 
 ings and profits remitted by residents abroad ; but there is 
 no reason to think that these have of late years been increas- 
 ing — rather the reverse. It is to the results of our export 
 trade that we must look for the means of turning the labour 
 at home which is not employed in producing the necessaries 
 of life into those products to be obtained from abroad. 
 Other conditions may possibly spring up : such a wonderful 
 discovery of new sources of wealth like that of gold in
 
 OF TRADE DErRESSION. 259 
 
 Australia; some new dovelopment of agricultural operations 
 at home, whereby the labour now employed in other channels 
 may be diverted to the production of supplies to supersede 
 imported ones ; or some unexpected diminution in our pre- 
 sent draughts upon the world's resources. But failing- any 
 such alterations, the decay of our export trade must involve 
 an entire change in our social condition, and not impro- 
 bably nor remotely our decadence as a nation. It is with 
 no intention of maintaining that this decay must necessarily 
 continue or increase, that on this and on other occasions 
 the real circumstances are sought out and insisted upon. 
 Kather is it desired to direct attention to the facts of tho 
 case, so that whatever means can be adopted to alter exist- 
 ing conditions may be taken in hand. What those means 
 are cannot now be inquired into ; but the alterations which 
 have taken and are taking place in our social condition may 
 bo discussed. A few words, however, as to the way in which 
 this decay has been brought about. 
 
 It would be unreasonable to expect that, however willing 
 the nations of tho world might be in their infancy to depend 
 upon this country for their inanufoctured goods and the 
 articles of luxury they choose to consume, they would con- 
 tinue to purchase them from us by a larger amount of 
 labour bestowed upon the raising of food and raw materials, 
 than we bestow upon the finished articles they take in ex- 
 change. We have had the honour of being the pioneers 
 in arts and manufactures, and have had our reward in tho 
 wealth we have acquired. It is now the turn of other 
 nations to follow in our steps, at least to the extent of sup- 
 plying their own wants ; and this they are sure to do aa 
 they increase in numbers and knowledge. We can have no 
 hope of retarding this progress, but we may repeat tho pro- 
 cess by which we have hitherto succeeded in advancing our 
 own interest — that of civilizing tho nations yet existing in 
 barbarism, of peopling the regions yet uncultivated by 
 man. We have no right to expect, for instance, that 
 America will continue to purchase from us the coals and tlio
 
 2 GO ON THE SOCIAL ASPECT 
 
 iron she has within her own shores, or permit us to fetch 
 from her the raw cotton her fields produce, and take back 
 to her the calico or the hosiery to clothe her population ; 
 but we may abstain from exterminating the naked races 
 who would raise us food in exchange for our clothing. We 
 may laugh or mourn over the folly to themselves and the 
 injury to us, of the United States^ policy in retarding their 
 own progress by refusing to take our products in exchange 
 for their surplus food, until they are able under free trade to 
 supply their own wants ; but we may not in imitation of this 
 revert to the suicidal policy of resorting to protection or 
 reciprocity. It is certainly not in this direction that we 
 can in any way advance the return of trading prosperity, or 
 retard the progress of trade decay. It is by the throwing 
 open of our ports for the reception of whatever the world 
 will send us, that we have fed our population and enabled 
 them to cheapen the goods we have to sell; and just in pro- 
 portion as we stand in need of customers for our manufac- 
 tured products, must we maintain or extend the facilities 
 for the interchange of that which each nation can or does 
 produce in perfection at a low cost. 
 
 It is so much easier to affirm the positive than to state 
 the negative, to observe the object which is displayed in 
 relief rather than that which is cut in reverse ; that it is 
 hoped what has been said of prosperous trade may, in some 
 measure, present to view what adverse commerce means. 
 Yet there are some of the aspects of trade depression which, 
 in piu-suance of the object of this Paper, must be distinctly 
 set out and briefly enlarged upon. 
 
 It would appear that a serious social revolution is im- 
 pending over us, or rather we may say has already com- 
 menced in our midst ; and is only not more distinctly visible 
 because everybody is living in hopes that the present de- 
 pression is but for a time, and even now gives prospect, as 
 many think, to a revival of trade. No one can dispute the 
 vast falling off in the value of our exports. Whether this be 
 duo principally, or only in part, to a diminution of price, and
 
 OF TKADE DElTvESSION. 261 
 
 not of quantity, has been argued elsowhero. Even were it 
 wholly due to the fall of piiccSj it would still remain true that 
 the nation^s resources must be greatly diminished, and the 
 fact that our manufactures can only be sold for so much less 
 money does not alter the state of the case. It is said also 
 that this evil is not confined to England, but has fallen upon 
 other nations as well. Bo it so, the effect on their prosperity 
 is not so serious as on om-s, because in no other nation is 
 there so large a portion of the community dependent for 
 subsistence upon the proceeds of trade ; for none other has 
 to rely so much upon foreign supplies of food. There is also 
 a wide diflference in the effect of depressed prices of goods 
 for foreign and for home consumption. The one absolutely 
 lessens the purchasing power of the nation, the other, how- 
 ever it may for a time disturb and afflict the home traders, 
 is really only a question of internal regulation, entailing 
 no loss on the country, though playing an important part 
 in settling or unsettling the social relations of its different 
 members. 
 
 The first effect of lesser money return for the same quan- 
 tity of goods must obviously be felt by the manufacturer, 
 since the standing cost of plant, &c., cannot be materially 
 reduced, and wages do not fall until profits are diminished or 
 altogether cease. It is generally admitted that at the present 
 time few of the manufacturers of our staple exports are keep- 
 ing up their gains : it is fortunate for many if they are not 
 actually working at a loss. The spending power of this class 
 must thus be greatly lessened. That this is not yet mani- 
 fested more clearly in their expenditure arises from the vast 
 accumulations of prosperous times having been placed in 
 various investments not yet so completely affected, and that 
 many are actually drawing upon capital to tide over disas- 
 trous times. The next in order to suffer are the labouring 
 classes, who are everywhere compelled to accept reduced 
 wages, and thus become able to spend less. These two 
 classes necessarily affect the shopkeepers, from whom they 
 purchase. These, again, the traders and manufacturers from
 
 2G2 ON THE SOCIAL ASl'ECT 
 
 whom they obtain their goods. Then come the landowners, 
 whose hirgely-incrcased incomes of late years have been 
 occasioned and sustained by the general desire of those 
 acquiring fortunes to become occupiers of the soil, and the 
 lavish prices which prosperous trade has enabled them to 
 afford. The professional class and all whose receipts 
 come solely out of the incomes of others, having during 
 prosperity been large recipients, must gradually share in 
 the failing wealth of those by whom they have been sup- 
 ported. 
 
 So far as actual loss to the nation is concerned, agricul- 
 tural depression (excepting as it arises from diminished 
 production — and this, owing to the succession of bad har- 
 vests, is of immense importance — though not falling within 
 the scopeof this Paper) has really nothing to do with it. There 
 can be no ground for believing that for a series of years 
 nature will yield less abundant supplies than formerly ; and 
 so long as on the average equal labour expended upon the 
 soil produces the same return, there is the same amount of 
 sustenance for the population. Not so, however, when our 
 export trade falls off. If it be in quantity, there are fewer 
 hands employed to produce it; and if in price, less return. 
 In fact, the labouriug power both employed and unused 
 procures diminished supplies of necessaries, and an actual 
 loss ensues to one or more classes of the community. It is 
 the fewer millions of money which our exports have pro- 
 duced, to be set against the more millions we have expended 
 on imports to meet the growing numbers, and the increased 
 average consumption of those numbers, which makes the real 
 difference between national prosperity or adversity. Should 
 the times recur when the same employment of labour, in- 
 creasing with the addition to the population, will purchase 
 for us supplies from abroad to a proportionate extent, the 
 social condition of the country may remain unchanged ; 
 without such conditions it cannot do so, and even with them 
 such a result is highly improbable. 
 
 Let it be supposed that our manufacturers and traders
 
 OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 263 
 
 should have as full employment as before — to secure which 
 there must be an increase in the total amount, not only com- 
 mensurate with that of the population, but also of the con- 
 stant ascension from the lower ranks — there is no reason to 
 suppose that it can ever be as profitable as it was. The 
 producing power of the world has been and still is increasing 
 in a higher ratio than the consuming need, and hence pro- 
 ducers can never expect to command the same surplus of 
 profit for themselves on the sale of their manufactures or 
 the conduct of their trade. The continuous and probably 
 increasing loss of income to the higher classes will neces- 
 sarily alter their style of living, and with this their relative 
 social condition. But other causes put in operation by this 
 prime mover will all tend in the same direction. The very 
 largeness of the mercantile and manufacturing firms which 
 have come into existence has led to the formation of com- 
 panies and the general spirit of co-operation, which distri- 
 butes incomes amongst larger numbers. Diminished 
 incomes necessitate a resort to employment by many who 
 have hitherto had money to spend without earning it, so 
 that more will press forward to divide the profits earned. 
 All the old methods of making a business are becoming 
 overtasked. The peculiar means this country possessed of 
 drawing to it the trade of other nations are now being 
 shared with them ; and amongst ourselves it will rarely 
 happen that any new business will exclusively remain long 
 in the hands of those who first start it. When all were full 
 of employment the special ground which one man or firm 
 occupied, as we have many instances in our lai'ge trades, was 
 left to himself; now competitors spring up on every side. 
 The possession of capital gives far less power than it did 
 before the existence of facilities for obtaining money where- 
 with to manufacture or speculate. It is thus tolerably cer- 
 tain that*" the enormous fortunes hitherto so frequently made 
 will not arise, nor will our landowners have the same large 
 amounts at their disposal. In every way the social condition 
 of both must thus be clianged.
 
 264 ON THE 80CIAL ASPECT 
 
 With such materially reduced expenditure must go the 
 means of those who have lived upon the trade of the rich — 
 shopkeepers and other distributors will be lessened in 
 number, and their gains contracted. These then will press 
 upon the working classes, for whom fewer employments will 
 oflFcr and to whom lesser wages will be given. There 
 will be less money to spend and more frugality to be exer- 
 cised. 
 
 Another cause will, it is to be hoped, come into extensive 
 operation. It is impossible not to have seen that in all 
 classes of society the success of those who have prospered in 
 life has in great measure been owing to the ignorance, the 
 folly, or the vice of those who have failed. The advantages 
 and opportunities offered to the many have been embraced 
 by the few ; and excepting in instances of exalted genius, 
 rare skill, or extraordinary circumstances, few men would 
 have risen to eminence or fortune but for the indisposition 
 or incapacity of their compeers to divide with them the 
 success they have obtained. If education, morality, and 
 religion are to increase, many more must be qualified to 
 obtain the prizes, and there must be a more equal division 
 of the benefits which man's labour, his own or others', can 
 create. If this be true as regards individuals and families 
 amongst ourselves, it is also true as regards nations. 
 England's prosperity has been owing not only to the in- 
 dustry, the skill, and the energy she has put forth at home 
 and abroad, but very much to the folly of other nations in 
 neglecting the resources they possessed and wasting their 
 substance in war. We too have had our share of this in 
 time past, and are not free from its indulgence now; but 
 since the days which closed with Waterloo, and again with 
 the termination of the Crimean War, all our rivals in manu- 
 facture and commerce — America, France, Italy, Germany, 
 Austria, and Russia, as well as every minor State, excepting 
 perhaps Switzerland, whether in the East or the AYest, or 
 this side of the Atlantic or the other — have retarded their 
 own progress, and thus left room for us to advance, by the
 
 OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 265 
 
 wholesale destruction of life and tlio products of life's 
 labour. It is the peace which Franco seems determined to 
 enjoy which is enabling her to exercise her powers in sup- 
 plying so much to our markets, and yet take less from us ; 
 whilst the United States, no longer cursed with slavery or 
 dissevered in interests, is able to advance rapidly in fur- 
 nishing herself with manufactured goods, and to spare us of 
 the food sho raises. To these happy causes are owing 
 much of the check which our manufacturing efforts are 
 receiving. 
 
 It is not forgotten that with these social changes — should 
 the present promise be realized — there will bo a large addi- 
 tion to the present overstocked labour market, and that tlio 
 problems will have to be solved how that labour is to find 
 employment, and how those who yield it are to find food. 
 But it must be remembered that with less wasteful and 
 luxurious living, whether it be in the destruction or misuse 
 of food, or the awful extravagance in drink which are in- 
 dulged in by both rich and poor, there will be enough to fill 
 many mouths. There is a certainty that with lesser wages 
 and smaller profits, together with greater honesty in tho 
 processes of manufacture and the conduct of trade, we shall 
 find for a time at least many customers, especially amongst 
 the least civilized people, who will be ready to grow food 
 wherewith to purchase our clothing and other productions. 
 It is not impossible that our own soil may be made to yield 
 a larger supply ; and if that fail, who shall estimate tho 
 countless multitudes for which food can be raised in our 
 colonies when our superabundant labourers go forth to 
 people their fertile valleys and their sun-clad hills ? 
 
 To come back to the point from which we started, Eng- 
 land has for a long series of years appropriated and ex- 
 pended in consumption and accumulation the proceeds of a 
 larger share of tho world's labour than she has herself con- 
 tributed. This she has been enabled to do through the force 
 of her Anglo-Saxon character, her early discovery of the 
 mineral treasures she possessed, and her power to utilizo
 
 2G6 SOCIAL ASPECT OF TRADE DEPRESSION. 
 
 thorn ; her indomitable perseverance in seeking out and 
 occupying new places for the employment of her energies, 
 and new mai'kets for the sale of her products. By the main- 
 tenance of peace and the cultivation of intercourse with all 
 the world to a larger extent than any other nation which 
 ever existed, by shaking off the trammels in which her trade 
 was fettered, and thus giving the widest expansion to all 
 her powers. Possessing, however, no special monopoly of 
 any of these gifts, her success has induced other nations — 
 especially those to whom she has herself given birth — to 
 follow more or less in her footsteps, and thus to become 
 suppliers of their own wants first, and then competitors for 
 the custom of the world. Concurrently with this, the 
 wealth which has fallen to her share has been unequally 
 divided amongst her own children ; deservedly so, because 
 the industrious, the wise, the thrifty, have only done to their 
 fellows what England has done to the world. Nevertheless, 
 the result has been an undue exaltation of wealth, an un- 
 due desire for its possession, and the use of undue means 
 for its acquisition. This struggle for existence — for the 
 enjoyment by each of more than he himself produces — has per- 
 vaded all classes, and both led to, and been fostered by, the 
 inflated prosperity of the few years centring in 1871-72. 
 Society has become divided into unnatural extremes, and a 
 social condition grown up which is for the benefit of neither. 
 It is utterly impossible for it to continue without the infusion 
 of new life, or the obtaining of new support. These are to be 
 found if sought for; but it is equally improbable that society 
 can either continue on its old lines or fall back upon them 
 again. If trade and agricultural depression together drive 
 us into new channels of thought and action, prompt us to 
 give play to new motives, and inculcate upon us higher 
 principles by which to regulate our conduct ; they will prove 
 the seed of a richer harvest of happiness, honour, and real 
 glory, than all the accumulations of the past have ever 
 yielded.
 
 XIII. 
 
 Extended Colonization a Necessity to the 
 Mother Country.* 
 
 THE Paper which I have had the pleasure and privilege 
 of preparing for this evening's meeting differs some- 
 what from those which are usually presented to the mem- 
 bers of the Colonial Institute, inasmuch as it neither con- 
 tains information respecting any portion of our Colonial 
 Empire, nor does it treat of the subject from a Colonial point 
 of view. It is the sequel to a series of papers read in other 
 places on the trading condition and prospects of this coun- 
 try, out of which it would seem that there arises a necessity 
 for action, with special reference to the advantages the 
 Colonies offer as helps to the Parent State. Yet so closely 
 are the interests of the children bound up with those of the 
 parent, that whatever may prove to be for its welfare should 
 also be the source or occasion of benefit to them. Some 
 apology is needed fi'oin one who has so recently become a 
 member of the Institute for attempting to deal with so wide 
 and important a subject. I throw myself on your indul- 
 gence for the incomplete manner in which it i^i treated, with 
 the full expectation that it may at least serve to promote a 
 discussion that will have some influence in guiding public 
 opinion, and it may be, in invoking legislative action to- 
 wards effecting the desired cud. 
 
 I. The population of the United Kingdom in the ye.ir 
 
 ' Read at tlic 0|icninf: Moetinn; of Session 1879-80, of Tbc Roval 
 Colonial Institute, Noveniher '2't, 1879.
 
 268 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 1871, that in which the last census was taken, numLered 
 31,484,001. The estimated increase since that time has 
 been 2,071,452, and a like rate of growth between this and 
 1881, when the next enumeration will take place, would 
 give a further increase of 727,905, bringing up the total to 
 very close upon 35 millions, for whom food, raiment, and 
 shelter must necessarily be found. In 1871 there were 
 3,831,054 acres of land appropriated to the growth of wheat, 
 the calculated produce of which being 53,020,000 cwts., was 
 supplemented by importations from abroad to the extent of 
 43,310,000 cwts. Last year there were 3,381,701 acres, 
 yielding, it is supposed, 55,350,000 cwts., and the foreign 
 supplies were 58,760,000 cwts. This year the cultivation 
 has been reduced to 3,056,428 acres, and it is probable that, 
 owing to the bad harvest, the whole yield will not much exceed 
 the half of last yearns production ; whilst the foreign impor- 
 tations have already reached to 57,000,000 cwts., and there 
 are yet two months of the year to run. Mr. Caird puts the 
 annual home produce at 55,000,000 cwts., and the quantity 
 taken from abroad at an equal weight, thus giving 110,000,000 
 cwts. as the present consumption. 
 
 Other cereal products to some extent aid the supply of 
 wheat, but, roughly speaking, they may be said to about 
 compensate for the wheat devoted to other uses than that 
 of human food ; and some 3,000,000 cwts. of rice are im- 
 ported, of which, however, only a portion is eaten. 
 
 Of meat it is supposed that 25,370,000 cwts. were raised 
 in 1871, and an additional quantity of 3,960,000 cwts. im- 
 ported. The same calculation gives 25,000,000 cwts. of 
 home produce for last year, and 6,990,000 cwts. obtained 
 from abroad. Butter and cheese may probably be taken at 
 3,000,000 cwts,, both now and for 1871, and the milk con- 
 sumed as equivalent to 6,000,000 cwts. more. Adding this 
 to the meat may make the weight of home-raised animal 
 food 34,000,000 cwts. Of foreign butter and cheese, in- 
 cluding lard, the impoi'tations were 2,930,000 cwts. in 1871, 
 and 4,580,000 cwts. in 1878 ; together afi'ording a present
 
 TO TIIE MOTHER COUNTRY. 269 
 
 annual weight of 39,000,000 cwts. of animal food furnislied 
 for the use of the whole population. 
 
 Potatoes are another important article of diet, of which 
 probably 100,000,000 cwts. are usually grown at home, 
 whilst the importations were, in 1871, 850,000 cwts., and in 
 1878, 8,7-15,000 cwts. 
 
 If we go back for another ten years to 18G1 it will bo 
 seen that the population was then only 28,974,302, the im- 
 portations of foreign wheat 36,200,000 cwts., of meat 
 1,810,000 cwts., of butter, &c., 2,010,000 cwts., and of pota- 
 toes 112,374 cwts. There are no records from which it is prac- 
 ticable — very satisfactorily — to calculate the various home 
 products for that year, but it may be assumed that there 
 were no great variations from the present average amounts. 
 
 These several descriptions of food, however, have varying 
 degrees of life-sustaining powers, according as they are rich 
 or otherwise in the flesh-forming constituents they contain. 
 For instance, it is generally admitted that 480 lbs. of wheat 
 per annum are capable of supporting one person, whilst 
 550 lbs. of meat would be necessary for the same purpose, 
 and that 10 lbs. of potatoes go no further than 1 lb. of 
 wheat. In estimating, therefore, the extent to which the 
 whole will avail in feeding our population, as well as in as- 
 certaining tho proportion in which wo are dependent upon 
 home and foreign supplies, it becomes necessary to reduce 
 them to a common standard, and thus to express their worth 
 as food in that of wheat. It is not necessary hero to show 
 tho several calculations. The basis on which these, as well 
 as the estimates of quantities, rest, will bo found in several 
 ])aporK by Mr. Caird, Mr. H. Thorn ])son, and Dr. Play fair. 
 Of their experience and judgiuent I availed myself in pre- 
 paring a paper containing copious details, which will bo 
 found in tho " Transactions of the ^Manchester Statistical 
 Society for 1877. '^ ' Some extracts from tables given in a 
 recent treatise published by Mr. Caird, near tho close of last 
 year, form the following table, and I may perhaps be allowed 
 ' Auto, pp. 76-102.
 
 270 
 
 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 to appeal with some confidence to the figures set forth in my 
 own paper when they are corroborated to so great an extent 
 by the calculations of one who is justly deemed an authority 
 in these matters : — 
 
 Quantities and Values of Home and Foreign Agricultural Food Produce 
 consumed annualli/, as estimated by Mr, Caird} 
 
 [In million £'3 to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Quantities. 
 
 Values. 
 
 
 Home. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Home. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 Total 
 
 Wlieat 
 
 Barley 
 
 cwts. 
 
 55-00 
 
 44-00 
 
 6400 
 
 14-00 
 
 cwts. 
 55-00 
 11-00 
 12-00 
 500 
 20-00 
 
 cwts. 
 11000 
 55-00 
 7600 
 19-00 
 20-00 
 
 & 
 32-19 
 19-80 
 28-80 
 
 6-30 
 
 £ 
 32-19 
 495 
 5-40 
 2-25 
 7-00 
 
 £ 
 64-38 
 24-75 
 
 Oats 
 
 34-20 
 
 Peas and Beans 
 
 Indian Corn 
 
 8-55 
 7-00 
 
 
 
 Total Corn . . 
 
 177-00 
 
 111-00 
 
 24-50 
 
 3-00 
 
 103-00 
 
 5-00 
 6-30 
 3-10 
 
 280-00 
 
 116-00 
 
 30-80 
 
 6-10 
 
 87-09 
 
 16-65 
 87-00 
 13-50 
 26-00 
 
 51-79 
 
 ■75 
 22-05 
 14-00 
 
 138-88 
 
 
 17-40 
 
 Meat, &c 
 
 109-05 
 
 Cheese and Butter. 
 Milk 
 
 27-50 
 26-00 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 230-24 
 
 88-59 
 
 318-83 
 
 Reducing, then, the other articles to their equivalents in 
 wheat, and adding the whole together, it will be seen that 
 the two years 1871 and 1878 compare thus : — 
 
 1 " The Landed Interest and its Supply of Food." By James Caird, 
 C.B., F.R.S. 1879.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 
 
 271 
 
 [In million cwts. to two decimals.] 
 
 1871. 
 
 Wheat 
 
 Meat equal to 
 
 Dairy produce 
 
 Potatoes 
 
 Wheat— value of total 94 
 
 1878. 
 
 Wheat 
 
 Meat equal to 
 
 Dairy produce 
 
 Potatoes 
 
 Wheat — value of total. 
 
 Home. 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 53-62 
 
 43-31 
 
 22-16 
 
 3-45 
 
 8-00 
 
 2-38 
 
 10-00 
 
 •09 
 
 94- 
 
 49- 
 
 55-35 
 
 58-76 
 
 21-82 
 
 5-74 
 
 8-0 
 
 3-72 
 
 10-00 
 
 -87 
 
 95- 
 
 69- 
 
 Total. 
 
 96-93 
 25-61 
 10-38 
 10-09 
 
 143- 
 
 11411 
 
 27-56 
 11-72 
 10-87 
 
 164- 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 Home. I Foreign. 
 
 55-32 
 86-53 
 77-07 
 99-11 
 
 66- 
 
 48-50 
 79-17 
 68-26 
 92-00 
 
 58- 
 
 44-68 
 13-47 
 22-93 
 
 •89 
 
 34- 
 
 51-50 
 
 20-83 
 
 31-74 
 
 8-00 
 
 42- 
 
 For 1861 the totals would probably be 
 
 96- 
 
 39- 
 
 135- 
 
 71- 
 
 29- 
 
 Dividing these totals of 135, 143, and 164 million cwts. 
 amongst the existing population, they would show a supply 
 of nutriment equivalent to wheat for each individual of 522 
 lbs. in 1861 ; 512 lbs. in 1871 ; and 538 lbs. in 1878; or an 
 average of 524 lbs. Allowing for the export in various 
 forms of prepared food, of perhaps 5 per cent., and for some 
 waste, this weight comes singularly near to the 480 lbs. 
 computed to be necessary for each person, thus supporting 
 the presumed accuracy of the calculations. 
 
 But besides these principal articles of food there are 
 many others of smaller importance — eggs, vegetables, fruit, 
 &c. — both of home and foreign production, which aid in 
 supporting life ; and many, such as beverages, both alco- 
 holic and other, without which, according to the habits of 
 the people, life would be scarcely endurable. The former 
 class is chiefly of homo growth, although the foreign is 
 rapidly increasing in relative importance. The latter are 
 mostly of foreign production. These are not capable of 
 being dealt with in quantities, as we have previously done
 
 272 
 
 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 witli tlio staple articles, yet a comparison of their collected 
 values at the two periods may be serviceable; always re- 
 membering that for specific dates the money value is not 
 an altogether safe guide, because of fluctuations in prices. 
 For a series of years they are safer. A table of these ex- 
 tracted from the paper already referred to, and continued to 
 1870, will be found at page 79. One of a similar character 
 taken from the Agricultural Statistics of the Board of Trade 
 recently issued, which has this year for the first time thus 
 grouped the various articles of food and shown their value, 
 is as follows : — 
 
 Values of Food Imports ft^om 1859-78, arranged in Groups, as sTiown in 
 Official Abstract of Agricultural Returns, prepared by Mr. Giffen, 
 of the Board of Trade. 
 
 [In million &'a to two decimals.] 
 
 Year. 
 
 Total 
 Value. 
 
 Live 
 Animals 
 
 Meat, 
 
 Cheese, 
 
 &c. 
 
 Wheat 
 
 and 
 Flour. 
 
 Cereal, 
 
 Sugar, 
 
 Spices, 
 
 &c. 
 
 Beverages. 
 
 Fniit 
 and 
 Vege- 
 tables. 
 
 Miscel- 
 laneous. 
 
 
 
 I. 
 
 II. 
 
 ni. 
 
 IV. 
 
 V. 
 
 VI. 
 
 VII. 
 
 1859 
 
 56-66 
 
 1-63 
 
 5-18 
 
 11-11 
 
 20-98 
 
 13-21 
 
 3-09 
 
 1-46 
 
 '60 
 
 78-79 
 
 2-12 
 
 9-05 
 
 20-87 
 
 25-45 
 
 16-00 
 
 2-93 
 
 2-31 
 
 '61 
 
 84-67 
 
 2-21 
 
 10-37 
 
 24-00 
 
 27-13 
 
 15-44 
 
 3-47 
 
 2-05 
 
 '62 
 
 91-00 
 
 1-89 
 
 11-82 
 
 28-59 
 
 24-47 
 
 18-21 
 
 3-60 
 
 2-42 
 
 '63 
 
 83-62 
 
 2-65 
 
 12-07 
 
 15-54 
 
 25-61 
 
 21-47 
 
 4-02 
 
 2-26 
 
 '64 
 
 82-83 
 
 4-28 
 
 13-08 
 
 13-51 
 
 25-61 
 
 20-03 
 
 3-64 
 
 2-08 
 
 '65 
 
 83-04 
 
 6-55 
 
 13-65 
 
 12-40 
 
 23-68 
 
 20-55 
 
 3-50 
 
 2-71 
 
 '66 
 
 94-03 
 
 5-84 
 
 14-93 
 
 16-78 
 
 28-06 
 
 22-70 
 
 3-79 
 
 2-53 
 
 '67 
 
 104.05 
 
 4-15 
 
 13-39 
 
 28-50 
 
 28-97 
 
 21-94 
 
 4-20 
 
 3-50 
 
 '68 
 
 98-13 
 
 2-70 
 
 14-17 
 
 24-90 
 
 33-77 
 
 15-38 
 
 4-64 
 
 2-57 
 
 '69 
 
 110-72 
 
 5-30 
 
 16-55 
 
 23-30 
 
 34-42 
 
 23-01 
 
 4-82 
 
 3-32 
 
 '70 
 
 106-42 
 
 4-60 
 
 JO-19 
 
 19-65 
 
 35-75 
 
 23-53 
 
 4-27 
 
 2-37 
 
 '71 
 
 125-68 
 
 5-66 
 
 18-50 
 
 26-82 
 
 38-20 
 
 27-53 
 
 5-32 
 
 3-59 
 
 '72 
 
 141-53 
 
 4-39 
 
 19-35 
 
 30-26 
 
 47-93 
 
 28-77 
 
 7-96 
 
 2-87 
 
 '73 
 
 149-48 
 
 5-42 
 
 24-38 
 
 34-39 
 
 43-60 
 
 31-00 
 
 7-43 
 
 3-26 
 
 '74 
 
 147-20 
 
 5-26 
 
 20-33 
 
 30-92 
 
 45-69 
 
 28-72 
 
 7-10 
 
 3-18 
 
 '75 
 
 158-65 
 
 7-33 
 
 28-04 
 
 32-38 
 
 47-75 
 
 31-01 
 
 7-55 
 
 3-99 
 
 '76 
 
 158-77 
 
 7-26 
 
 31-45 
 
 27-92 
 
 49-25 
 
 30-81 
 
 8-77 
 
 3-31 
 
 '77 
 
 178-23 
 
 6-01 
 
 31-23 
 
 40-69 
 
 55-50 
 
 30-45 
 
 10-22 
 
 4-13 
 
 '78 
 
 167-36 
 
 7-45 
 
 33-98 
 
 34-22 
 
 50-97 
 
 28-08 
 
 9-48 
 
 3-18 
 
 Total. 
 
 2,302-06 
 
 92-76 
 
 363-77 
 
 496-75 
 
 712-79 
 
 469-10 
 
 109-80 
 
 57-09 
 
 2sote. — The above Table includes all Imported Produce, whether for Home 
 Consumption or Export, and does not comprise articles such as Guano and 
 Chemicals, employed in the production of Food.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 273 
 
 The totals which the table (page 79) displays for the 
 two years stand thus : — 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 1871. 1878. 
 
 Animal Food £-23-53 £39-98 
 
 Cereals 4-2-(i0 or 30-86 60-11 or 47-11 
 
 Sugar, fruit, &c 22-0.5 29-15 
 
 Beverages, alcoholic 9-39 or 21-13 7-84 or 20-84 
 
 „ other 9-40 12 08 
 
 Miscellaneous 11-03 17-84 
 
 £118-00 £16700 
 
 The corrected figures for cereal and alcoholic are the re- 
 sult of a deduction from the one and addition to the other 
 of the value of the grain employed in distillation and brow- 
 ing, thereby entirely changing its character. 
 
 Mr. Caird thus compares certain of the above articles for 
 the past year with those of home growth : — 
 
 lldino. Foreign. 
 
 Corn £87-09 £ol-79 
 
 Potatoes 1 () "(iS -75 
 
 Meat 87-00 22-05 
 
 Cheese and butter 13-50 1400 
 
 £204-24 £88-59 
 
 In one respect these figures fail to convey an accurate 
 idea of the dependence upon foreign supplies, since a largo 
 portion of the home meat and dairy produce is fed upon im- 
 ported corn and other food, or on grass and roots which 
 owe much to the aid of the manures and chemicals included 
 under the head of miscellaneous in my foreign estimate. It 
 may not be too much to say that one-half of the two items, 
 cereal and miscellaneous, say £38 millions, should be de- 
 ducted from Mr. Caird's home estimate, thereby reducing 
 the total to £166 millions — very nearly the amount at which 
 the foreign supplies are valued by me. 
 
 Mr. Caird himself says in the book from which these 
 particulars are quoted : " Wo now receive our bread in 
 equal proportions from our own fields and those of the 
 
 T
 
 274 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 stranger ; " and again : '' This country thus derives from 
 foreign lands not only half its bread and nearly one-fourth 
 of its dairy produce, but must also depend on the foreigner 
 for almost the entire addition that may be further required 
 by an increase of its population/' Nearly two years pre- 
 viously it had been stated by myself : " It may be safely 
 inferred that our bread is equally of home and foreign 
 origin ; " and, " The conclusion thus arrived at would ap- 
 pear to be that for absolute sustenance we rely upon home 
 and foreign produce in somewhere about the proportion 
 of three to two fifths." Also : " On this computation, of 
 the 33 million inhabitants of the United Kingdom, 18 mil- 
 lions may be sustained on food grown at home, and 15 
 millions on that received from abroad." Since that date 
 the proportions have somewhat altered, with increased 
 numbers and larger supplies. 
 
 Fortified by this concurrent testimony and the figures 
 which have been adduced — at a length and in detail 
 which must have been somewhat tedious, and would have 
 been unnecessary but for the extreme importance of attain- 
 ing to right conclusions on the subject — it is not too much 
 to say that of the 35 millions which the next census will 
 show as inhabiting these islands, at least 17 millions must 
 be fed on food which is not produced at home. Further- 
 more, that if the present rate of increase continue — since 
 the whole of it must rely upon foreign supplies — in another 
 ten years (and such a term is not too long for our statesmen 
 to forecast) the seventeen will have grown to twenty, and 
 thus fully if not more than one-half the inhabitants of the 
 United Kingdom will be absolutely dependent for their 
 existence upon foreign food. 
 
 II. If, then, the food produced at home suffices for the 
 wants of little more than half its inhabitants, two ques- 
 tions arise : first, whether it is possible so to economize its 
 use as to make it serve for the sustenance of a larger 
 number ; secondly, what probability there is of success in 
 attempting to increase its amount.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 275 
 
 There can he little or no doiibt that the prosperity which 
 marked our trading and manufacturing progress for many 
 years has tended to much waste. Luxurious living on the 
 part of the rich has in many ways led to the consumption or 
 destruction of some amount of food, the distribution of 
 which would have supported more lives, and in many house- 
 holds there is an actual waste which it is painful to observe 
 whilst there is any real destitution in the laud. The ex- 
 tremes of high and low li\ang are far greater than they 
 ought to be, yet it is pretty clear that any changes in this 
 respect would but equalize consumption, since for those who 
 consume unduly there are surely as many who suffer real 
 deprivation or absolute want. We are not concerned now 
 with the causes or the remedy, simply with the fact, and 
 whether it have any bearing on the extent of available 
 supplies. There is also an extravagant waste of food from 
 ignorance, and indifference of and to the best kinds of food, 
 the best mode of cooking it, and the proper seasons for its 
 enjoyment ; but here, again, it is doubtful whether the 
 diffusion of sound information or the adoption of right 
 principles would produce any other result than equalization. 
 If there are many who are badly fed from misuse, there 
 are surely as many who are underfed because what they 
 have is not wholesome or sufficient. Adversity may en- 
 force the judicious use of the food we possess, and it is 
 certain that there is enough supplied, were it properly em- 
 ployed, to support vigorous life in all our people, but not 
 more than may bo beneficially consumed by the whole. 
 The gain would be great in health and strength, and the 
 prolongation of life, more than in any power to sustain a 
 larger number. One exception, however, must be made to 
 these remarks — they do not apply to the wasteful destruc- 
 tion of food by its conversion into alcoholic drink. A series 
 of elaborate calculations show that during the twenty years 
 ending with 1876, 581,000,000 cwts., giving an average 
 of nearly 30,000,000 cwts. per annum of grain were thus 
 converted into beer and spirits. A considerable portion
 
 27G EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 of this would be wheat and oats, capable of direct applica- 
 tion for human food — all of it might have been converted 
 into meat and eggs for the same purpose. Chemists tell 
 us that the actual amount of nutriment left when thus 
 changed in its character is insignificant, and we are justified 
 in assuming that as food the quantity thus destroyed would 
 be ample to maintain healthy life at the very least in some 
 3,000,000 persons. Could a change to this extent only — 
 which would still leave untouched all the imported alcoholic 
 drinks — be effected in the drinking customs of our country, 
 this number might be transferred from the foreign to the home- 
 supported portion of the population. Further than this, it 
 does not appear that any better employment or more equal 
 distribution of the existing home-raised food would assist 
 the land in providing for the wants of those who occupy it. 
 The question whether any alterations in the conditions 
 under which agricultural operations are carried on would 
 enable the land to support a greater number, is one of 
 much wider range, and involves, as does also the one we 
 have just left, not only the possibility, but, still more, the 
 probability of such changes being affected. 
 
 There are many who believe that amendment of the land 
 laws would be followed by increased productiveness of the 
 soil, because of the greater facilities which might be afibrded 
 for its profitable working, and hence the larger amount of 
 capital which might be drawn to this class of investments. 
 Granted that this would be the effect of the desired legisla- 
 tion, it does not therefore follow that a larger number of 
 people would be thereby sustained. More would depend 
 upon the kind of produce which would be raised in enlarged 
 quantity. Of all the edibles for the growth of which our 
 soils and climate are suited, the potato is that which will 
 feed the greatest number per acre; but then the race it pro- 
 duces and sustains is deficient in power, and if measured not 
 by numbers but by capacity for work it yields less than 
 others. The legumes are coming into credit as admirably 
 adapted for economically sustaining both life and strength j
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 277 
 
 but, taken altogether, there is h'ttle likelihood that wheat 
 will be deposed from its supremacy as the staff of life, 
 whether from the weight which each acre will produce as 
 compared with other descriptions of food, or from its fitness 
 for man's consumption. Now, this is just the kind of crop 
 which seems the most likely of all to be displaced by that 
 of foreign growth. The acreage devoted to its cultivation 
 has for years past been gradually diminishing, and the 
 tendency of the present day is towards its restriction, if not 
 its abandonment, as an article for the home farmer to raise. 
 In 1871 there were 3,831,054 acres growing wheat, in 1879 
 only 3,056,428, and of this diminution 325,273 took place 
 as between this and the last year. The throwing of land 
 out of wheat culture into that of any other description of 
 food, however desirable or profitable it may be for the cul- 
 tivator, lessens the number per acre which it can feed. 
 This is especially the case with a change from arable to 
 grazing purposes, since for every acre of land on which 
 wheat is grown, eight will be required to give the same 
 amount of nourishment in the shape of meat. Fruit and 
 vegetables, again, however desirable it may be on the score 
 of health and enjoyment to extend their use, will not con- 
 tribute anything like the same degree of sustenance as 
 would be afforded by the wheat of which they take tho 
 place. A prosperous and happy people will seek for more 
 meat and green food, and be enabled to obtain more wheat 
 from distant places, thus materially diminishing tho sus- 
 taining power of the homo soil. 
 
 Again, an increasing population and thriving trade absorb 
 more land for the erection of buildings, tho means of transit, 
 and open spaces for recreation, all of which must bo obtained 
 at the expense of the food tho land can bring forth. There 
 is thus every reason to wish fnr a restriction in the extent 
 of surface thus employed, unless indeed it can be obtained 
 by tho reclamation of that which is waste ; and there is no 
 reason to expect more will bo dono in this direction than 
 will be absorbed in others.
 
 278 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 It is as yet open to doubt whether high farming and 
 improved machinery or modes of cultivation will hold their 
 ground against the vast tracts of unoccupied land being 
 every day rendered available in other countries, and the 
 increased facilities for bringing their produce to our markets. 
 If they do, it will almost certainly be by the production of 
 such foods as need to be raised near at hand, which are 
 just those that require the larger space for growth in pro- 
 portion to their food- value. 
 
 There is one direction in which we are sadly deficient, 
 namely, in not retaining and returning to the soil that 
 which we have taken from it after its purpose has been 
 served. True husbandry would teach that all refuse, 
 whether animal or human, should be replaced rather than 
 be sent to poison our water-courses and then be lost in the 
 sea. Nature destroys nothing, simply changes its consti- 
 tution ; and with all the inorganic matter we are continually 
 bringing to the surface, where it can, through the instru- 
 mentality of vegetable life, be organized, and all the organic 
 matter we are continually bringing from abroad, our soil 
 ought to be growing richer instead of poorer, and in this 
 way be able to minister more largely to our wants. 
 
 On the whole, therefore, we cannot expect the life- 
 sustaining capabilities of the land to increase. Unless con- 
 tinued adversity should drive us to the use of simpler food, 
 there is little reason to expect that an actually larger amount 
 of nutriment will be raised at home; but rather, every 
 reason for believing that each succeeding year will diminish 
 our power to support increasing numbers upon the food 
 which our own islands are able to give us. 
 
 Nor are we better able, without resorting to the produce 
 of other countries, to clothe than to feed our people. All 
 the cotton, as well as silk and jute, are of foreign growth, 
 and so is a large proportion of the flax, leather, and wool 
 employed in the manufacture of wearing apparel and house- 
 hold requisites. The following figm-es show the value, on 
 an average of the past twelve years, of the imports of
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 
 
 279 
 
 materials retained for use and manufacture, with the portion 
 of them left after deduction of the estimated value contained 
 in the exported articles, and the corresponding values of 
 the home produce : — 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Foreign. 
 
 Home 
 Produce. 
 
 
 - , Home 
 
 Imrorts. Consumption. 
 
 Cotton 
 
 £ 
 
 42-23 
 
 5-16 
 
 2-47 
 
 15-18 
 
 15-55 
 
 £ 
 
 9-72 
 3-02 
 2-19 
 12-40 
 5-06 
 
 £ 
 nil. 
 
 Flax 
 
 200 
 
 Jute 
 
 nil 
 
 Silk 
 
 nil. 
 
 Wool 
 
 8-50 
 
 
 
 
 80-59 
 
 32-39 
 
 10-50 
 
 It thus appears that probably one-fourth only of the 
 materials from which our clothing is manufactured are of 
 home growth. For the erection of buildings and manu- 
 facture of furniture, wo are more than ever compelled to use 
 wood of foreign growth. 
 
 III. Before passing to the consideration of the sources 
 from which the deficiency in our home supplies is met, we 
 may briefly inquire whether there is any probability of 
 lessened demands upon these supplies in coming years, or 
 whether, in truth, the present rate of increase of consumers 
 is not lower than we have every reason to expect it will bo 
 in the future. 
 
 Dr. Farr, in his report to the Registrar-General of the 
 mortality in England during the ten years 1801-70, points 
 out that in the healthy districts of England the annual deaths 
 are only 17 to the 1,000 living; and though the number 
 for the whole kingdom raises the average to 22 per 1,000, 
 there is a gradual approximation to the lower rate, any 
 excess over which " is not duo to the mortality incident to 
 human nature, but to foreign causes to be repelled, and by
 
 280 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 hygienic expedients conquered : " the overplus due to the 
 operation of these preventable causes being 115,833 out of 
 479,450, or very nearly one-fourth. With the rapid spread 
 of sounder views on subjects relating to health and the 
 preservation of life, together with the greater attention now 
 being paid to sanitary arrangements, it is not too much to 
 hope that the diminution by death will be less than it has 
 been ; nor is it altogether Utopian to expect that the re- 
 markable progress of public opinion in favour of temperance 
 will not only liberate from destruction a considerable amount 
 of food, but that the devotion of this food to its proper uses 
 will tend to the conservation of life, and thus to swell the 
 numbers for whom provision has to be made. Furthermore, 
 if the nation is at all to advance in morality and religion 
 its rate of increase in population will assuredly not be 
 thereby lowered. On every ground we may expect that the 
 causes at present in operation, and their probable extension, 
 will lead to the multiplication rather than the diminution of 
 the human species. 
 
 It is important here to notice that unless some means be 
 found for adding to the number of those to whom agricultural 
 operations furnish employment, whatever increase does take 
 place in the population must all serve to swell the ranks of 
 those who depend upon trading and manufacturing pursuits 
 for their means of subsistence. Of the 31,484,661 enume- 
 rated at the last census, 2,989,154 are classified as agri- 
 cultural,and 6,425, 137 as industrial; these numbers including 
 not only the actual workers, but also their wives, children, 
 or other dependents. In the next census the industrial 
 may probably amount to eight millions, if we include a fair 
 proportion of the commercial class who have to deal with 
 the products of industrial occupations. A growth of popu- 
 lation at the same rate during the succeeding ten years 
 would raise the number to twelve millions, requiring for 
 their employment that every branch of manufacturing 
 industry must be extended at least fifty per cent. The 
 enormous surplus of goods thus created to seek for pur-
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 281 
 
 chasers, would require our export trade to be doubled or 
 trebled. Such an enlargement is quite within the bounds 
 of possibility ; but would it be so much for the prosperity 
 of the country generally thus to convert it into one huge 
 workshop, with all its attendant overcrowding and other 
 evils at the seat of manufacture, rather than to disperse its 
 inhabitants to found free and happy colonial homes ? 
 
 IV. The next stage, then, in our investigation must be 
 into the methods by which those for whom our own soil 
 fails to produce the needful food are supplied with this and 
 the other necessaries of life, and how far those or other 
 methods are likely to continue sufficient for the present 
 population, and to keep pace with its future growth. 
 
 It clearly matters little towards this end in what manner 
 individual labour is employed, so long as its purpose is to 
 procure what is required, and that this aim is realized. A 
 ton of coal or of iron, though useless in itself as food, is of 
 equal value to a hundredweight of wheat or of meat, so 
 long as the one is interchangeable for the other ; but loses 
 all its value when this ceases. In the earlier stages of our 
 commercial history, this country not only produced food 
 enough for all its inhabitants, but had some to spare where- 
 with it could procure the various articles it chose to obtain 
 from abroad ; and up to the period when the food produced 
 or retained at home sufficed for all who had to eat it, it was 
 not their existence, but their comfort, their welfare, or 
 their wealth which depended upon the continuance of tho 
 nation's trade. From the moment when it became neces- 
 sary to make use of foreign food, it also became essential 
 that our foreign trade should bo made, and its extension 
 with the same rapidity as the population increased could 
 alone save us from starvation. Tho following figures, taken 
 from the official tables for the last twelve years, will show 
 that our exports (of all articles) attained their maximum in 
 1872, and our imports not till 1877, so that between these 
 years wo had a continually increasing balance against us. 
 Since 1878 both have been decreasing, the imports more
 
 282 
 
 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 than the exports, thus slightly dt^creasing the balance. 
 Certain corrections, however, have to be made by deductions 
 from the imports, because we do not really pay for them 
 the whole sum at which they are valued on arrival ; and 
 additions to the exports, because we receive for them more 
 than their cost on departure. It is well, therefore, to show 
 side by side the official figures and the revised estimate. 
 There is room for dijfference of opinion as to how far the 
 revision given is correct, and much controversy has arisen 
 on this subject, but substantially there is not much difiFerence 
 of variation amongst those who have given most attention 
 to the calculations. 
 
 [In millions of £'s sterling.] 
 
 
 Official Values. 
 
 Kevised Estimate. 
 
 Year. 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Excess of 
 Imports. 
 
 1867 
 
 230 
 
 181 
 
 205 
 
 188 
 
 17 
 
 '68 
 
 247 
 
 180 
 
 220 
 
 187 
 
 33 
 
 '69 
 
 248 
 
 190 
 
 221 
 
 196 
 
 25 
 
 '70 
 
 259 
 
 199 
 
 231 
 
 207 
 
 24 
 
 '71 
 
 271 
 
 223 
 
 240 
 
 230 
 
 10 
 
 '72 
 
 296 
 
 256 
 
 263 
 
 266 
 
 — 3 
 
 '73 
 
 315 
 
 255 
 
 281 
 
 267 
 
 14 
 
 '74 
 
 312 
 
 240 
 
 278 
 
 251 
 
 27 
 
 '75 
 
 316 
 
 2-23 
 
 281 
 
 233 
 
 48 
 
 '76 
 
 319 
 
 201 
 
 284 
 
 209 
 
 75 
 
 '77 
 
 341 
 
 199 
 
 304 
 
 208 
 
 96 
 
 '78 
 
 316 
 
 193 
 
 281 
 
 202 
 
 79 
 
 '79 
 
 306 
 
 192 
 
 272 
 
 201 
 
 71 
 
 It was contended by the extreme school of political 
 economists that the imports, however much in excess, 
 must really be paid for by the exports, and thei'efore, that 
 their magnitude only shows the profit that accrues from the 
 exchange. But the events of the last few years, and the 
 extreme depression of our trade, must surely show the 
 fallacy of this theory. It is now generally admitted that 
 we have been liquidating the balances against us by the
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 283 
 
 sale of bonds and other securities accumulated in tlio times 
 of our prosperity ; and the recent rise in the Bank rate is 
 due to the apprehension that America, from whom we are 
 large purchasers, especially of food, whilst she buys little 
 or nothing from us, having re-obtained possession of her 
 bonds, &c., will now demand payment in gold. 
 
 Others, again, assert that the dividends and earnings 
 accruing to this country from its Colonial and Foreign 
 investments and trade are equivalent to the deficiency. 
 There arc no means of ascertaining even approximately to 
 how much these receipts may amount ; no doubt they are 
 large, but it is more than probable that, as our Colonial 
 investments are continually going on, very much of that 
 which would otherwise be applicable to payment for our 
 purchased imports is really expended on loans and goods 
 invested abroad, and thus they become additions to our 
 capital rather than disposable income. 
 
 The important bearing which these questions have upon 
 the ability of this country to sustain its people by its foreign 
 trade will be seen in the figures, which show how largely 
 the increase in our imports arises from our purchases of 
 food ; this increase in the later years being really greater 
 than it appears to be, on account of the low prices which 
 have prevailed : — 
 
 [In millions of £'s sterling.] 
 
 1867 101 1871 118 1875 157 
 
 1868 105 1872 136 1876 159 
 
 1869 106 187.3 147 1877 177 
 
 1870 100 1874 143 1878 1(17 
 
 It will be specially noted that whereas in 1867 our exports 
 of British produce and manufacture exceeded our imports 
 of food by £80,000,000, last year the excess was but 
 £20,000,000, a sum quite insutticicnt to pay for the raw 
 materials of foreign growth which arc worked up into so 
 large a portion of the manufactured goods wo export. In 
 short, that at the present time the whole products of the 
 labour expended and the capital emi)loyod in British in-
 
 284 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 dustries for exportation, fail to realize enough to pay for 
 the food we import for consumption. Let the figures be 
 examined and their import scrutinized in what way we will, 
 the conclusion is irresistibly forced upon us, that at the 
 present moment England is unable to provide food for her 
 people either from the produce of her own soil, or by the 
 exchange of her manufactures and produce. 
 
 But it will be answered that these are times of universal 
 depression ; the whole world is suffering as well as we. 
 That we have a great advantage, in that the savings of the 
 past will tide us over the time of ebb, and that a glorious 
 flood of prosperity awaits us in the future. The reply is 
 twofold. Even if it be true that others are suffering as 
 well as we, it is not to the same extent, nor is it so likely 
 to continue with them as with us. It is not to the same 
 extent, for, with few exceptions, the trading and manu- 
 facturing interests in other countries are the minority, with 
 us they are the majority. We are essentially a productive 
 and commercial nation ; we have been the manufacturers 
 for the world, but are every day becoming less exclusively 
 so since others have discovered that they possess the same 
 sources of mineral wealth as we do. They have increased 
 in numbers and grown in wealth ; they have learnt by our 
 experience, profited by our skill, are copying and improving 
 upon our processes, and are determined no longer to be 
 dependent upon us for that which they can produce for 
 themselves. There may be some revival of trade ; let us 
 welcome the gladdening symptoms which are showing 
 themselves at the present moment, but not deceive our- 
 selves by over-estimating their importance or believing 
 that the inflation of 1872-3 is about to return. If the 
 figures which have been produced, and the arguments by 
 which they have been supported, are of any value, they can 
 scarcely fail to establish the fact, that on financial gi'ounds 
 alone there is a necessity for extended emigration. We 
 have hitherto been parting with thousands ; it must now be 
 • by hundreds of thousands, even if not by millions.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 285 
 
 V. Weighty reasons also why an extensive emigration 
 is necessary, are to be drawn from the social and moral 
 condition in which large masses of our population are found 
 to exist. The rapid and continuous expansion of our 
 manufacturing concerns, together with the consequent 
 growth of our trade, have caused a continual drain from 
 the country; and the congregation of increasing numbers in 
 the towns, which both on the sea-coasts and in the centres 
 of industry, have been growing with unexampled rapidity. 
 It is in these that the additions to the population mostly 
 take place j and to find employment year by year for those 
 who are swelling the ranks of our artisans and labourers 
 will require not only the maintenance of our present trade 
 and manufactures, but such an enlargement as the most 
 sanguine can scarcely expect to see. The healthy arrange- 
 ment of dwelling-houses, and the adoption of sanitary 
 improvements, become more difficult in proportion to the 
 density of the population congregated within limited areas, 
 and demand an expenditure the burden of which has been 
 unwillingly borne even in times of the greatest prosperity, 
 and in adverse times becomes the occasion of much outcry 
 from the ratepayers. The crowding together of large 
 numbers, and the distance from open spaces and fresh air, 
 have a most injurious effect upon both health and character. 
 Something has been done of late by the widening of streets 
 and the multiplication of breathing-grounds, but these 
 require continued expenditure, and after all scarcely keep 
 pace with the additional necessity. It is only those who 
 make it their business to visit the haunts of the poor, and 
 the homes of even the better class of our labouring popu- 
 lation, who know the wretchedness of overcrowding, in- 
 sufficient ventilation, and deficient means for the removal 
 of refuse ; or understand how these undermine the health 
 and lower the moral standard of those who exist rather than 
 live. To these are to bo attributed most of the addiction 
 to drink and the want of morality that fill our poor-houses 
 and hospitals, our gaols and lunatic asylums. There aro
 
 286 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 festering sores hero which all our costly efforts fail to heal. 
 There are hot-beds of vice, infidelity, and disaffection which 
 may lie dormant whilst work is tolerably plentiful and wages 
 reasonably good ; but may become active under the strain 
 of long-continued depression such as we have lately passed 
 through^ and from the recurrence of which we are by no 
 means safe. We are wisely erecting schools, and giving 
 better training to the young, but education, while it cannot 
 cure these evils, will but render more dangerous to the 
 welfare of society those who, lacking employment and 
 suffering want, have every inducement to discontent and 
 disloyalty. It is painful to think how much time and 
 money, how much philanthropic effort and heartfelt sym- 
 pathy, how much religious zeal and untiring energy, are 
 absolutely wasted in merely palliating the evils they are 
 powerless to overcome. It may be doubted whether any- 
 thing but a general breaking up of associations such as 
 extensive emigration would cause, will prevent the growth, 
 and ultimately the manifestation, of such disorders as are 
 utterly inconsistent with real national prosperity. 
 
 VI. Such being the condition of our agricultural and 
 manufacturing industries at home, as well as of our trading 
 relations with the rest of the world, let us for a moment 
 consider what would happen supposing that through some 
 extraordinary convulsion of nature there were an upheaval 
 in the Western Ocean of a cluster of islands, or even a 
 whole continent, whose situation should be as contiguous 
 to the shores of Ireland as the Emerald Isle itself is to the 
 Mersey. Let us imagine further, that amongst these 
 islands were to be found some with a tropical climate suited 
 for the production of the sweets and the spices that we get 
 from the East and the West; some with broad acres of 
 pasture capable of supporting and fattening the cattle and 
 sheep our Englishmen cannot well do without ; others with 
 the soil of California or Manitoba, bringing forth luxurious 
 crops of wheat, and the various cereals without which we 
 can scarcely live ; others dotted with magnificent forest
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 287 
 
 trees, or the humbler plants which, whether for food or 
 medicine, minister so much to our needs, and furnish the 
 raw materials from which we manufocture our clothing and 
 drape our apartments; that in others, beneath the soil, or 
 cropping to the surface, were seen minerals like those which 
 constitute so large a portion of our wealth. Let us again 
 conceive of these new-found lands aa tenanted by flocks 
 and herds, their rivers teeming with life, the air swarming 
 with fowl and game, in fact, with every form of animated 
 nature known to man, but all destitute of human beings, and 
 thus waiting the advent of him for whose use they were all 
 created. And that nothing might be wanting to complete 
 the attractions of these favoured spots, that they had hills 
 and mountains reaching to the very sky, sloping valleys 
 stretching till they meet the sea, rolling rivers and spark- 
 ling fountains, sights and sounds and scents to satisfy all 
 the senses and charm the most fastidious tastes. Would 
 such places remain long unoccupied ? Would not our 
 surplus labourers rush thither to till the soil or gather its 
 fruits, our capitalists find the means of transport, and 
 our ships bring back their products ? Would there not 
 be a speedy exodus from our shores, till all at least who 
 failed to find profitable employment here, had transferred 
 themselves to such enticing spheres for labour and enjoy- 
 ment? 
 
 Once again, let us suppose that an adjoining continent, 
 possessing every natural advantage, had for its inhabitants 
 multitudes already used to gaining their own food, but satis- 
 fied with scanty clothing and rudo shelter ; yet willing to 
 be taught the arts of husbandry and tillage which would 
 increase their produce, and to exchange these for better 
 clothing and all the articles which natural or artificial want 
 requires to bo supplied vnth. Would not our manufac- 
 turers set their looms and forges at work to meet the de- 
 mands upon their stocks ; our traders hasten to cultivate 
 amicable relations with the several people, our men of money 
 furnishing the moans and sharing the profits of trade ?
 
 288 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 Should wo not, as our American brethren are doing, move 
 on to the Far West ? 
 
 Wherein, then, lies the difference between the picture 
 which fancy draws, and that which our maps exhibit and 
 our books of geography and travels show us ; for we have, 
 in truth, all these places in our possession or easily attain- 
 able so soon as we need them ? Simply in the distance by 
 which they are separated from us. But surely this is far 
 from being an insuperable obstacle. Australia is now almost 
 as easily reached as Ireland was in the days when first colo- 
 nized ; and the passage scarcely costs more money than it did 
 when vessels first traded thither. If it pays to bring bullocks 
 across the Atlantic only to be slaughtered, it ought not to 
 be unremunerative to transport human beings to places 
 where they may work to repay the outlay. This outlay, too, 
 it must be remembered, would all be spent in furnishing em- 
 ployment to our shipbuilders, clothiers, provision dealers, 
 sailors, and other labourers. The only real loss is that of 
 the time spent in the transit, and devoted to the first settle- 
 ment. Once settled and thriving, those who go out will 
 require supplies of clothing from our manufactories at home, 
 and send in return food, &c., to support those who produce 
 them. 
 
 One grave objection is often started — that emigration 
 takes from us'the wisest and the strongest, leaving behind 
 the foolish and the feeble. This is a real difiiculty, but if, 
 on the one hand, we have inherited the wealth previously 
 acquired, we must not, on the other, complain of the 
 charges with which it is encumbered. Nor can we escape 
 the evil by suffering those who might grow up wise and 
 strong in homes of freedom and plenty, to become enfeebled 
 and debased from overcrowding and want of food in their 
 present abodes. Besides which, experience proves that 
 those who are successful abroad do not forget the aged and 
 the young whom they have left at home ; they make large 
 remittances for the support of parents, and the bringing out 
 of the brothers and sisters when old enough to come.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUXTIJY. 1^89 
 
 Hitherto many have looked forward to returning to spend 
 their last days in the old country, and this will still bo tho 
 case with the most fortunate ; but when colonization be- 
 comes more general it will be a permanent settlement for 
 most, and it is well that it should be. Attachment to the 
 mother country may and will continue, but the centre of 
 attraction to the majority will be the homes and the sur- 
 roundings in the new country. 
 
 Colonization will necessarily bo of two kinds. The one 
 that which brings into cultivation unoccupied territories : 
 this will absorb the larger number of emigrants. The other 
 that which cultivates intercourse and trade with the uncivi- 
 lized inhabitants in possession of lands which may yield us 
 food; this will provide employment and sustenance for the 
 greater number at home. Both should proceed simulta- 
 neously, and together not only lessen the population which 
 may bo superabundant, but also largely increase the power 
 of the mother country to support successive additions to 
 its numbers. 
 
 There is a wide contrast between the advantage to bo 
 derived from the sending of emigrants to our own colonies 
 and to foreign countries. Apart from all other considera- 
 tions they are better customers in the one than they are in 
 the other. The following figures, showing tho values of our 
 exports, prove that whilst our trade has been expanding to 
 the former, it has been contracting to the latter. The value 
 of British produce and manufacture exported since 1871 has 
 been to —
 
 290 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 [In milliou £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Year. 
 
 British 
 Possessions. 
 
 Foreign 
 Countries. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Per Cent. 
 
 British. | Foreign. 
 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 £ 
 
 
 
 1871 
 
 51 "2.5 
 
 171-82 
 
 22307 
 
 23- 
 
 77- 
 
 '72 
 
 60-56 
 
 195-70 
 
 256-26 
 
 24- 
 
 76- 
 
 '73 
 
 66-:3.'3 
 
 188-83 
 
 255-16 
 
 26- 
 
 74- 
 
 '74 
 
 72-28 
 
 167-28 
 
 239-56 
 
 30- 
 
 70- 
 
 75 
 
 71-09 
 
 152-37 
 
 223-46 
 
 32- 
 
 68- 
 
 '76 
 
 64-86 
 
 135-78 
 
 200-64 
 
 32- 
 
 68- 
 
 '77 
 
 69-92 
 
 128-97 
 
 198-89 
 
 35- 
 
 65- 
 
 '78 
 
 66-24 
 
 126-61 
 
 192-85 
 
 34- 
 
 66- 
 
 
 5-22 -53 
 
 1,267-36 
 
 1,789-89 
 
 29- 1 71- 
 
 Upon every ground, therefore, efforts should be made to 
 direct the stream to our own possessions, and away from 
 other countries, especially from those adopting hostile 
 tariffs. We may then fairly claim and expect from our own 
 Colonies the utter abandonment of all protective legislation, 
 and the freest admission of our own products for the use of 
 our own people. 
 
 VII. Thus far we have been treating the matter as one 
 of compulsion, of stern necessity, enforcing upon the mother- 
 country the duty of providing the necessaries of life for 
 the children whom she can no longer feed from her own 
 bosom, and for whom she has increasing difficulty in procu- 
 ring supplies from extraneous sources. It requires no little 
 courage to maintain these views in face of the revival of 
 trade, which is at this time kindling the hopes of all save 
 those who are immediately dependent on agricultural pros- 
 perity ; but the truth still remains that a country, depend- 
 ing so largely for the means of existence upon the proceeds 
 of its foreign trade, cannot look with complacency upon an 
 insufficiency in its exports, or be satisfied with diminishing 
 sale of out-goings, accompanied by more extensive pur- 
 chases of in-comings. At present the additional cost of our 
 food imports is fourfold that of our increased exports, and
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 291 
 
 the artisan who gets fuller work or ampler wages has to pay 
 far higher for the food he consumes. The recent activity 
 in the trade of the United States is chiefly in its exports, 
 the result of deficient crops on this side the Atlantic, which 
 their abundance of wheat enables them to supply ; and at 
 the same time by their own increased consumption of dairy 
 produce and other articles to raise the prices which we have 
 hitherto paid. Anticipation of continued demands on our 
 part are leading to the extension of their railway system, 
 which brings them as customers to our markets, and hence 
 the orders with which our manufacturers' books are filled. 
 Should this continue it will furnish our people vnth. means 
 for the purchase of food, and thus support our trade ; but it 
 would be a great calamity should attention be diverted 
 from the far more enduring basis of prosperity, which the 
 extension of our Colonies is fitted to afford. The essential 
 difference between our home and foreign or colonial trade 
 must never be put out of sight. The employment of labour 
 in the production of articles which minister to our comfort 
 or enjoyment, and the distribution of wealth which it pro- 
 motes, are results of the highest value ; but so far as sus- 
 tenance is concerned it does nothing to procure the supplies 
 we need. It may be well to turn gold into stocks of iron 
 or chemicals, but unless these are exported they cannot 
 purchase more beef or bread than are raised at home. 
 
 The necessity of which we have been speaking might be 
 received with alarm, were it not for the truth of the old 
 adage that " necessity is the mother of invention." It is 
 quite consonant vnth the Anglo Saxon character to evolve 
 prosperity from adverse conditions, to thrive best when com- 
 bating trials and overcoming difllculties. Nowhere is this 
 more clearly displayed than in the liistory of our American 
 cousins. Necessity for economy of power has led them to 
 become pre-eminent in the invention of labour-saving 
 machines. Necessity for economy of money to repair the 
 waste of intestine commotions, has led them to find out the 
 value of patient self-denial, and of paying off the debt in-
 
 292 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 curred in tlieir time of trouble. Our necessities will become 
 real blessings if they enable us to find out the true value of 
 our Colonies, and in no respect greater than in teaching ua the 
 extreme importance of maintaining and multiplying human 
 life, as the surest method for the acquisition of wealth. 
 
 The question is often asked, wherein lies the source of 
 wealth ? The answer frequently given is that it comes from 
 the soil. This is strictly true, though but in a limited sense. 
 Gems and gold, the most precious substances derived from 
 the soil, are only the representatives of real wealth, and 
 this they owe to the trouble of obtaining them, or the 
 scarcity in which they exist. Did the alchemy of nature 
 produce them in profusion they would cease to be deemed 
 wealth. Whatever of real worth is extracted from the soil 
 owes its chief, if not its only, value to the labour which 
 brings it forth. 
 
 Is labour, then, the source of wealth ? Not altogether, 
 for it may be expended in the destruction as well as creation 
 of wealth ; and wealth is often formed — as in the fruits 
 which the earth spontaneously produces — without its agency. 
 The true source of wealth is to be found in life, and life 
 alone. Without life the earth would be barren and deso- 
 late, as it was in the remotest period to which history reaches, 
 " without form and void.^^ Take the lowest form in which 
 it is manifested, that of vegetable life. By its agency inert 
 matter assumes the various forms and characteristics which 
 make it capable of supporting the higher grades of life and 
 furnish other substances of real wealth. In the next stasre, 
 animal life still further can-ies on the processes of conver- 
 sion, until through the instrumentality of the living power 
 inherent in man, the brain becomes fitted for the exercise 
 of thought and power by the direct gift of the Creator, im- 
 parted when he became a living soul. It is by the exercise 
 of these gifts through which man wields dominion over 
 animate and inanimate nature that the higher forms of 
 wealth are called into existence. In limiting life we lessen 
 the production of wealth ; by its preservation and multipli-
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 293 
 
 cation, ■we may best increase our store of liches. We think 
 and act thus with our fields and our flocks ; ought it to bo 
 less true with respect to our families ? There must be some- 
 thing radically wrong in our social or political condition 
 when the words of Scripture, " happy is the man who has 
 his quiver full of them," cease to bo true ; and that wrong 
 may be set right if we will only properly use the unbounded 
 means for the support of life which our Colonial Possessions 
 place within our grasp. 
 
 Two illustrations may serve to establish this proposition. 
 The Registrar-General in his last annual report, after calcu- 
 lating the average earnings of each inhabitant of Great 
 Britain, and likewise the average cost of his maintenance 
 through life, comes to the conclusion that the money value 
 of each is £159, this being the difference between the wages 
 received or money earned, and that necessarily expended 
 for the support of life. In the period which has elapsed 
 since first accurate registration took place, the kingdom has 
 parted with some eight million of its people, which Dr. Farr 
 sets do V? n as a money gift to the world of £ 1 ,400,000,000. Of 
 these, some 2i millions have settled in Colonies, and 5^: mil- 
 lions gone to the United States. Further than this, he 
 considers that even in this country, under proper hygienic 
 regulation, the rate of increase which is now 1*3 per cent, 
 should be 1'8, so that the population, instead of doubling 
 itself in fifty-five years, should do so in every thirty-nine. 
 
 It is to be regretted that the Colonial records afibrd very 
 meagre information by which to judge of the relative rate at 
 which the population increases from natural causes in the 
 Colonies as contrasted with that at home. For the Austra- 
 lian Colonies the accounts of the last five years do show the 
 numbers of births and deaths from which the increase can 
 bo ascertained, and thus compared with similar results ob- 
 tained for the United Kingdom : —
 
 294 
 
 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Year. 
 
 United Kingdom. 
 
 Australia. 
 
 Pop. 
 
 Inc. 
 
 Per . Cent. 
 
 Pop. 
 
 Inc. 
 
 Per Cent. 
 
 1873 
 
 32-12 
 
 -43 
 
 1-33 
 
 2-12 
 
 -048 
 
 2-2G 
 
 '74 
 
 32-43 
 
 •42 
 
 1-30 
 
 2-23 
 
 -045 
 
 2-02 
 
 '75 
 
 32-70 
 
 •39 
 
 1-18 
 
 2-33 
 
 •039 
 
 1-67 
 
 '76 
 
 33-09 
 
 •48 
 
 1-44 
 
 2-41 
 
 -047 
 
 1-95 
 
 '77 
 
 33-45 
 
 •49 
 
 1-45 
 
 2-52 
 
 -051 
 
 2-02 
 
 Total increase in five years U.K. 2,199,013 = 6-85 per cent. 
 
 „ „ Australia 230,408 = 10-81 „ 
 
 Average annual rate of increase U. K. 1-34 
 
 ,, ,, Australia 1-98 
 
 The only available statistics from Canada, though insuffi- 
 cient for arriving at any accurate conclusion, yet help to show 
 that this superior rate of increase is not confined to Australia, 
 but extends to other colonies in a like manner. 
 
 To view this part of the subject in another aspect. Some 
 calculations regarding the division and employments of the 
 people of this country in 1877, which will be found in the 
 Transactions of the British Association for that year,' show 
 that in the then circumstances of the United Kingdom 
 some 40 per cent, of the actual workers supplied food for 
 the whole population, and some 25 to 30 per cent, more, 
 other necessaries, lea"sang 30 to 35 per cent, free to provide 
 the luxuries of life and to accumulate wealth. The fact 
 seems thus to be established that each individual life is, or 
 ought to be, of actual money value to the State. Were it 
 not so, there could be no growth of substance or wealth. 
 In the earlier days of settling, no doubt the whole time of 
 every worker needs to be occupied in provision for daily 
 wants ; but after a short period there is more to spare for 
 enjoyment or acquisition than is possible in the old country, 
 with all its concentration of power and machinery for econo- 
 mizinir labour. 
 
 Ante, page 116 ct seq.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 295 
 
 VIII. Ono other motive which should induce the mother- 
 country to foster the further colonization of her dependencies 
 remains to be noticed — it is the sense of responsibility 
 arising from the relationship in which she stands towards 
 them. It is not only that her own soil fails to provide 
 sufficient for the wants of her growing population ; that 
 there seems little likelihood of greater or improved cultivation 
 increasing her produce to the necessary extent; that our 
 manufacturing and trading operations, which have hitherto 
 procured supplies from abroad, now fail to keep pace with 
 the growth of those whom they have to support, and our pro- 
 ducing power appears to be overtaking the demands of our 
 customers. These are urgent reasons why we should send 
 forth a large number of our people. It is not only that 
 the conditions of existence which have grown up amongst 
 us, the modes of life fostered alternately by inflated pros- 
 perity and seasons of depression, require the breaking up of 
 many connections, the changing of many habits, the infusion 
 of new life into the several classes of society ; these offer 
 many inducements to place our people in altered circum- 
 stances, and to surround them with new influences. Neither 
 is it solely because by the difi"usion of our people, the fresh 
 start they may make and the development of multiplied life, 
 there is much wealth to be gained. These are encourage- 
 ments to the occupation of new lands and the enlargement 
 of our intercourse with the natives occupying many of our 
 possessions. It is that, above all these, there should be 
 the conviction that we have solemn duties to perform and 
 sacred trusts to execute. 
 
 If we trace the various means by which England has 
 become lord of the vast territories which already own our 
 Sovereign's sway, and those which it seems we cannot 
 avoid acquiring — at one time by right of discovery, and 
 another by that of conquest ; at others for the purpose of 
 restoring order or preserving peace ; at one period in pur- 
 suance of selfish policy dictated by the greed of gain ; at 
 another from motives of the purest philanthropy and the
 
 296 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 most earnest desire to benefit those whom we have brought 
 under control — we cannot fail to see that it is neither by 
 accident nor for useless ends that we have thus been led to 
 appropriate so vast a portion of the earth^s surface. What- 
 ever our past policy may have been, we cannot ignore our 
 present obligations, nor refuse to admit our responsibilities 
 in the future. Whether for good or evil the burden rests 
 upon us, and we cannot cast it off. The destinies of many 
 nations are in our keeping, and the peopling of many 
 countries at our disposal. If we have been enabled to 
 settle our own freedom on a firm foundation, we have to 
 secure the same liberty and to give the same relief to those 
 who are as yet unable to claim, or unfit to exercise the full 
 privileges of British subjects. If we have drawn to our 
 shores the wealth created in our Colonies or obtained by 
 trade from other nations, we have to employ our capital in 
 fostering commerce and manufactures for their benefit. If 
 we have arrived at so great a knowledge of, and obtained 
 so great a mastery over the powers by which the earth's 
 products may be utilized, we have to impart these gifts to 
 those who are yet in ignorance, and therefore in poverty. 
 If we have joined the ends of the earth together for our own 
 convenience, we have to unite the whole of our possessions 
 together and to ourselves by yet closer links and more en- 
 during ties. If we are in the enjoyment of all the comforts 
 and benefits which a high state of civiKzation confers, we 
 have to train our dependents to secure the same advantages. 
 If the principles and the practices of morality are to prevail, 
 we must introduce them where they are unknown, and fill 
 our lands with those who will aid in their propagation. If 
 we ourselves are blessed with the light of religious truth, 
 we must strive to cast the reflection of that light over the 
 dark places of the earth, and seek to raise up a seed to serve 
 Him by whom it has been bestowed. These are solemn 
 duties we dare not decline; glorious privileges we would 
 not lose. 
 
 IX. It does not fall within the scope of this paper to
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 297 
 
 discuss the various methods by which the desired ends may 
 be attained. Its purpose is rather to prove the necessity 
 which exists, and to stimulate all, home-residents and colo- 
 nists alike, to determined efforts to meet that necessity. 
 The times and the circumstances are every way favourable. 
 At home we have the people, and the money wherewith to 
 assist their removal. We have the ships to carry them, 
 and the power to build more if wanted. We have capital 
 seeking for investment, which may be advantageously em- 
 ployed either directly by its owners, or indirectly through 
 the agency of public companies, in making harbours, laying 
 down railways, clearing lands, and building habitations in 
 the colonies with far better hopes of success than in many 
 of the wild schemes in which we are so prone to embark. 
 We have abundance of implements and tools for every de- 
 scription of agricultural, mining, and building operations, the 
 manufacture of which would furnish immediate employment 
 for many of our artisans, and give an impetus to many 
 trades. We have been educating the young, so that they 
 at least need not go out unprepared for entrance into new 
 life. The ranks of every profession are over-filled, so 
 that we have teachers — religious and secular — physicians, 
 engineers, lawyers, clerks, together with farmers, trades- 
 men, mechanics, all in sufficient numbers to direct and caro 
 for the families and individuals who may cross the seas. 
 Facilities exist and may be provided such as never before 
 were to be found in so great a degree ; and really nothing 
 seems to stand in the way but want of knowledge, desire, 
 and will. 
 
 In the Colonies there is abundance of unoccupied land, 
 every variety of climate, every description of food and of 
 material for clothing. Pioneers have gone forward to pre- 
 pare the paths for those who are to come after them, so that 
 there are few places in which friends and companions are not 
 to be found ; whilst postal and telegraph communications 
 keep up constant and close intercourse ^vith those who 
 may be separated by wide continents or broad seas. In
 
 298 EXTENDED COLONIZATION A NECESSITY 
 
 many of our possessions, and in other uncivilized parts 
 which are ready for forming attachments with us, there are 
 large bodies who would soon become our customers for 
 merchandise and our growers of food with whom a profit- 
 able trade will in time be developed, if only we send as 
 settlers amongst them those who are prepared to cultivate 
 amicable relations, rather than to extort from them the 
 goods or the labour they have to give ; to carry the gifts 
 of civilization, rather than those of the sword. 
 
 In former times two classes were disposed to emigrate — 
 those whose spirit of enterprise and desire for wealth led 
 them to brave hardships, in the hope of returning home 
 to spend their later days in ease and plenty ; and those 
 who, having misconducted themselves or otherwise broken 
 down at home, found it desirable to seek new places to live 
 in. Hence Colonial life was rude and rough. Few cared 
 to become steady settlers, or to cultivate the comforts and 
 happiness of home. These may still go out in consider- 
 able numbers, but we also want those who, "svith settled 
 intention and hearty desire, change their country, but carry 
 with them or speedily make permanent homes wherever 
 they may go. The increasing numbers and the rapidity 
 with which these are added to in newer countries forbid the 
 expectation of return. The many must, once for all, trans- 
 fer themselves to the fresh locality, seeking to make it as 
 much like the old one in everything that is good, and as 
 much unlike it in everything that is ill, as they possibly 
 can. The feeling must not be that of expatriation, but that 
 of extending the borders of the fatherland. 
 
 This, too, should be the spirit to actuate the Home Go- 
 vernment in all its relations with existing or yet to be 
 formed Colonial possessions. All distinctions of laws and 
 customs should be swept away, and the same principles and 
 methods of rule should be adopted, or only withheld for a 
 time in the case of untutored natives. Whatever institu- 
 tions, religious, educational, scientific, or philanthropic, have 
 been found to work well at home, should be founded.
 
 TO THE MOTHER COUNTRY. 299 
 
 improved, and adapted to the special requirements of each 
 place. Whether it would be possible to form an entire 
 federal union of all parts of the British Empire, so as to 
 have the same fiscal laws and regulations, is too wide a sub- 
 ject to be entered upon on this occasion; but there can be 
 no question that if practicable it should be adopted, and if 
 not altogether feasible, that no unnecessary obstacles should 
 be placed in its way, or any departure from its spirit en- 
 couraged. If it be necessary for revenue purposes, on ac- 
 count of the different positions in which they are placed, to 
 have different rates of duties on the importation of goods, 
 they should undoubtedly differ as little as possible, and 
 every attempt to establish Protection on either side as 
 against the other be utterly repudiated. 
 
 It is the duty of the mother country to set the example 
 and exercise her authority for the general welfare, but it is 
 also the duty of the children to follow and acquiesce in that 
 which is for the benefit of both. The idea of separate inte- 
 rests or independence of each other is utterly inadmissible. 
 The object on all sides should be to draw tighter the bonds 
 of union, to weld every portion of our Dominions together 
 into one harmonious whole, to make everyone within the 
 bounds of the British Empire feel and act as an inhabitant 
 of the 07ie United Kingdom. 
 
 I have spoken of the necessity imposed upon the mother 
 country that she should extend and perfect the coloniza- 
 tion of her numerous possessions, but is it not equally a 
 necessity to those possessions that they should be fully 
 colonized ? She has more than an abundance ; they, with 
 few exceptions, a paucity of population. She is unable to 
 raise her own food, they can raise more than they can con- 
 sume. She has a plethora of wealth whicli seeks employ- 
 ment in foreign lands : they have need of more than she 
 can give to develop their untold resources. She has tho 
 knowledge, tho refinement, tho treasures of art and science, 
 accumulated in the course of tho years that ai*o past ; they 
 have yet to obtain these invaluable possessions in the years
 
 300 COLONIZATION A NECESSITY TO THE COUNTRY. 
 
 that are to come. The necessity is mutual : let both bo 
 gainers by its being met and supplied. These are conside- 
 rations which can no longer be neglected or evaded. They 
 force themselves upon us in our homes and our offices, in 
 solitude and society, in the palace and the hovel ; they will 
 tax* our intellects and should lie near our hearts. When 
 these sentiments prevail, and — presumptuous though it may 
 be in me to say so — not till then, will there be any solid 
 return of national prosperity. Whensoever they are held 
 by the leaders of public opinion, and responded to alike by 
 the voice of those at home and those in our colonies, the 
 work will be viewed as the most important that can occupy 
 public attention, and all together will join in its perform- 
 ance. Then the most important and influential member of 
 the Government will not be the Minister who sits at the 
 Home Office, not the one who presides over War, not even 
 he who rules at the Exchequer, but the honoured individual 
 into whose hands Her Most Gracious Majesty commits 
 the affairs of the Colonial Office.
 
 XIV. 
 
 Drinking and Depression.* 
 
 THERE is every indication that the winter upon which 
 wo have now entered will bo one of much privation, 
 and it may be of severe suffering to a large portion of the 
 labouring classes. The proposed reduction of wages in the 
 agricultural district of Kent and Sussex, which is resisted 
 there — though, we believe, tacitly accepted in other parts 
 of the kingdom — cannot be without effect upon the comfort 
 of many homes. Even that, however, is better than strikes 
 and locks-out at a season of the year when work is always 
 scanty, though the wants of the workers are increased. Nor 
 are things any better in other quarters. In the coal dis- 
 trict there are accumulations of stocks. Lord Londonderry 
 speaks of having 60,000 tons lying on the banks for want 
 of purchasers. In the Cleveland district, as well as the 
 Scotch and other centres of the iron trades, numbers of fur- 
 naces are blown out, and mills are standing idle. The same 
 tale is told in Lancashire as regards the cotton mills, which 
 are working short time, and the condition of manufacture is 
 very nearly alike in the woollen district of Yorkshire. Every- 
 where there is lessened opportunity for working — conse- 
 quently smaller earnings f(jr the support of the families, and 
 there seems no prospect at present of a favourable change. 
 The demand for tlie products of our manufacturiug industry 
 has fallen off; other nations are producing for themselves, 
 and hence prices have been lowered below those which 
 
 ' " The Cliurcli of Eiijiliuul Temperance Clironiclc," Novcmbir 30lh, 
 December 7tL and 14tl), 1«78.
 
 ;^02 DRINKING AND DEPRESSION. 
 
 yield profit, and it cannot bo expected that employers will 
 continue to increase their losses by continuing to give 
 wages that raise the cost of the goods beyond that which 
 customers will give. In the agricultural counties the cause 
 is somewhat different, though the result is the same. The 
 abundant supplies which pour in fromall parts of the world 
 so reduce the price as to leave little or no profit to the 
 farmers, and there is no doubt that they are compelled to seek 
 relief in reduction at both ends, the rents they are charged 
 and the wages they pay. However much we may sympa- 
 thize with the poor who suffer, there would appear no possi- 
 bility of avoiding the reduction, nor any immediate hope of 
 the necessity passing away. 
 
 Now, it is just because we do most deeply feel for those 
 who are thus deprived of their usual amount of earnings, 
 that we would point out to them one effectual means of 
 meeting the evil ; that is, by reducing the consumption of 
 beer and other alcoholic liquors ; or, better still, cutting it 
 off altogether ; for the strongest advocate for the moderate 
 use of these will admit that where retrenchment is neces- 
 sary it may better begin* with drink than meat, with beer 
 than bread. The estimated average value of the intoxi- 
 cants consumed by each individual being 90s., and the 
 average number of each family being five, of which two at 
 the most are bread-winners, and one of these not able to 
 earn more than half a full worker's wages ; it follows that 
 the average charge upon each income must be 90s. multi- 
 plied by 5 divided by 1tZi:£15, fully 6s. for each week of 
 work throughout the year. This is the average for the 
 whole kingdom and for all classes, but we believe that the 
 poor do really consume their full share, for though some 
 families amongst the rich may expend much more, they are 
 not sufficient in number to actually lower the average to a 
 great extent. Besides this, if the large number of abstainers 
 — all of whom are included in the calculation which pro- 
 duces the average — were left out, it would have fewer con- 
 sumers amongst whom to divide the total consumption. If,
 
 DRINKIXG AND DEPRESSION. 303 
 
 further, it be admitted that the agricultural labourers from 
 their lower wages, and country as opposed to town life, 
 are more abstemious than the mining and factory workers — 
 the self-imposed tax by reason of the amount spent in liquor 
 is yet far more than equivalent to the reduction in wages 
 which the Kent and Sussex labourers are crying out against. 
 Thus the complaint inscribed on one of the banners carried 
 in procession to the Exeter Hall meeting becomes the chief 
 ground of offence : " We grow the hops, but we must not 
 drink the beer.^' Let but the beer be cut off, and the re- 
 duced wages will go as far as those hitherto received in pro- 
 viding solid substance for the labourer and his fsimily. To 
 the operatives in other kinds of employment the same means 
 of compensation for lower earnings lies open. We very 
 much doubt if all the recent reductions in wages amount to 
 nearly the sum which might be saved by the abandonment 
 of excess in the consumption of drink. 
 
 To one class immediately above the labourers and opera- 
 tives, that of shopkeepers and dealers, the reduction of 
 wages or earnings has scarcely yet arrived, for the wholesale 
 prices of all articles of food — excepting meat and milk — 
 have been much lower than they were, whilst the retail 
 prices have not fallen in proportion. But it cannot be long 
 before diminished power of spending reaches them also ; 
 indeed it has done so already where, as in Wales and 
 Durham, the number of persons in employment has dimi- 
 nished ; and if not so, they have probably, through loss of 
 work, more claimants amongst whom to divide their means 
 or profits. To these, however, the same course, namely, 
 abstinence, wholly or in part, is open, and they have thus 
 the power of mitigating, if not of altogether averting, tlio 
 present or threatened evils. 
 
 But is it in truth an evil ? The prophet tells us, " When 
 Thy judgments are in the earth, the inhabitants of tlie world 
 will learn righteousness." Wo as a ])eoplo havo "grown and 
 become strong," and in our pride liavo said, " Is not this 
 great Babylon that I havo built by the might of ray power ? "
 
 304 DRINKING AND DErRESSION. 
 
 May wo not liopo that tho judgments which are even now 
 in the earth will render counsel acceptable to us, so that we 
 may ^' break off our sins by righteousness ?" Amongst the 
 sins which our nation has to break off, that of intemperance 
 holds a prominent position, and where it exists righteous- 
 ness can find no place. 
 
 We would earnestly press upon our workers and friends 
 tho consideration whether these are not times in which self- 
 denying and vigorous effort in the temperance cause is most 
 imperatively called for, and full of promise. There is 
 already a perceptible decrease in the quantities of wine, 
 beer, and spirits which are taken out for consumption. This 
 may be attributed to two causes — one, we hope, is the 
 spreading influence of sound knowledge and right princi- 
 ples ; the other, the lessened means wherewith to purchase. 
 Whatever is due to the former is an encouragement to go 
 forward in the work we have undertaken ; whatever to the 
 latter renders the continuance of that work easier and more 
 likely to succeed ; for when abstinence is enforced by neces- 
 sity, its benefits may be understood and appreciated, so that 
 the habit, once broken, may not be resumed when pro- 
 sperity returns. 
 
 2. 
 
 We alluded last week to retrenchment in expenditure on 
 alcoholic liquors as an effectual means for mitigating the 
 privations attendant upon the general reduction in wages 
 which agricultural labourers and others have to accept. 
 This diminution of earnings has its origin in the long- 
 continued depression of trade which the country has to 
 sustain; and until its removal there is little prospect of 
 any class of labourers or operatives being able to obtain the 
 wages they have until very recently enjoyed. It would, 
 however, appear that this depression of trade is in some 
 measure the result of, or is at least enhanced by, the undue 
 consumption of alcohol, as was pretty clearly proved by
 
 DRINKING AND DEPRESSION. dOo 
 
 some figures produced by one of the speakers at the recent 
 great temperance meeting in Manchester. The details of 
 this question are too elaborate for quotation or discussion 
 in these columns — some of them will be found in the 
 Appendix to Canon Ellison's evidence before the Lords' 
 Committee — but it may not bo uninteresting to state the 
 general results of this and other investigations. 
 
 Owing partly to the growth of population, but still more 
 to the increase in the average consumption of food, bever- 
 ages, and tobacco, amongst all classes of society, it has come 
 to pass that Great Britain and Ireland do not produce much 
 more than half the supplies which their inhabitants consume. 
 The remainder has to bo supplied from foreign sources, 
 and must be paid for with the products of the skill and in- 
 dustry of those who in one shape or other labour for the 
 support of themselves and those dependent upon them. 
 There is much difference of opinion among statisticians 
 and political economists as to the causes and effects of the 
 disproportion which late years have manifested in the 
 quantities and values of the goods imported and exported 
 into and from this country. But there is no room for ques- 
 tioning that want of economy in the use of what we have to 
 purchase, and a diminution in the receipts for such articles 
 as we have to sell, cannot add to the nation's wealth or the 
 spending power of its people. That intemperance acts 
 prejudicially in both directions it is not difficult to prove. 
 
 It is admitted that some six years ago, when trading and 
 manufacturing prosperity was at its height, the goods we 
 sent out of the country fully paid for those we brought into 
 it ; whereas now the value of the one is at least £9^,000,000 
 a year less than the other. Those who take an interest in 
 these particulars vnW fiud much of information and dis- 
 cussion in the Transactions of the Statistical Societies of 
 London and ^Manchester. The important points fur tem- 
 perance advocates to bear in mind are, as regards the im- 
 ports, that fully £25,000,000 out of the hundn-d is ex- 
 pended on the purchase either of alcoholic liquors them- 
 
 X
 
 30G DUINKING AND DEPRESSION. 
 
 selves, of the grain used in the manufacture of beer and 
 spirits in this country, or of that which is needed to com- 
 pensate for the barley, &c, of home growth which is thus 
 consumed. Now, just in proportion as we lessen or extin- 
 guish the payments made for such beverages, or the materials 
 from which they are formed, may we retain in the country 
 for our own use the goods we give in exchange for them, or 
 the money which arises from their sale. The whole of the 
 £25,000,000 or more thus annually parted with is abso- 
 lutely lost to the country. All that we get in return is the 
 life (?), health (?),and strength (?) which its consumption 
 creates, or the poverty (!), sickness (!), and vice (!) which 
 follow upon its being thus used up. This is an altogether 
 different matter from the amounts taken out of the pockets 
 of the consumers in payment for what they drink, on the 
 one hand, and the money which flows into the exchequer 
 as the result of duties levied on these drinks, or the earn- 
 ings of those who manufacture or deal in these articles, on 
 the other. We are here speaking only of that which is 
 actually transported out of the country in payment or 
 exchange for the intoxicants or their materials brought 
 into it. 
 
 It may doubtless be argued that the traflBc in the goods 
 which this twenty-five millions represents does bring profit 
 to our merchants and shopkeepers ; and their manufacture, 
 wages and profits to some of our labourers and their em- 
 ployers ; but to this it may be answered that the same 
 expenditure for any articles of absolute utility would yield 
 equal or greater profit. The real question is, what do we 
 gain in return for this payment, and how does it act in 
 elevating or depressing the trade of the country ? Those 
 who see in the moderate use of these beverages a real bene- 
 fit to such as partake of them, must admit that their im- 
 moderate use destroys instead of creating. Food, which 
 maintains life, forms the bones and muscles, strengthens the 
 nerves, and fits the brain for action ; creates the power of 
 production, and increases the numbers and wants of the
 
 DRINKING AND DErRESSION. 307 
 
 consumers. It thus encourages manufiicture and stimulates 
 trade. Drink, which destroys life, enfeebles the constitu- 
 tion, and paralyzes the mind and heart ; lessens the power 
 of production, imposes a dead weight upon those who do 
 produce, diminishes the numbers and the means of spending to 
 those who might be consumers, and so checks manufacture 
 and depresses trade. We had our cycle of prosperous 
 years, and have had the folly to waste much of our substance 
 in the extravagant consumption of alcohol. We have now 
 our period of adverse seasons, shall we learn the wisdom of 
 husbanding our means by retrenching in the expenditure on 
 alcohol ? Or shall we as a nation pursue the path of pro- 
 digality, till trade, manufacture, and commerce recede from 
 our shore to those of nations more temperate, and therefore 
 wiser, than we ? Our hope lies in the spread of temperance 
 principles, and our trust is in the Lord, who is thus own- 
 ing, encouraging, and blessing the servants whom Ho calls 
 to His help against the mighty power of evil which has 
 overspread our land. 
 
 We must reserve for another number the endeavour to 
 show how the same cause which increases our outlay for 
 imports, diminishes the quantity and value of the exports 
 with which we have to meet this expenditure. 
 
 3. 
 
 If it be true, as we essayed to prove a fortnight since, 
 that there is to be found in a retrenchment in the con- 
 sumption of alcoholic liquors an ample equivalent for any 
 reduction which has taken place in the wages of agricul- 
 tural and other labourers; and if the curtailment of the 
 nation's expenditure on these articles would go tar to rectify 
 the balance against us- in our dealings with the rest of the 
 world, it is not less certain that the same measure would 
 have a most powerful effect in (|uickening our export trade, 
 and thus in finding the means of payment for the food and 
 other necessaries which wo are compelled to procure from
 
 308 DRINKING AND DErRESSION. 
 
 abroad. This truth may not at first sight be so apparent 
 as the others, nor is it so easy to explain within a limited 
 compass, but a little consideration will demonstrate the fact. 
 
 A reference to the Kegistrar-GencraFs report upon the 
 last census will show that in the four great industries of our 
 country, the raising of coal, the manufacture of iron, and 
 the spinning and weaving of cotton and wool, and in deal- 
 ing with these productions, there are some million and a 
 half of people employed. On the computation already made 
 the dependents upon these, will raise the number who have 
 to be supported by their earnings to some five millions — 
 amongst whom the consumption of beer, spirits, &c., must 
 entail an expenditure of say £22,500,000 per annum, a 
 sum which the most strenuous advocate for the moderate 
 use of these articles must admit to be some twenty millions 
 more than is needed. 
 
 If, then, we turn to the records of our foreign trade it will 
 be seen that our exports of coal, iron, cotton and woollen 
 manufactures for last year were valued at £120,000,000, on 
 which a charge of £20,000,000 is equal to 16 per cent. 
 It may of course be argued that the operatives by whom 
 this amount is assumed to be expended on alcohol, produce 
 a larger value of goods than that named for export, inas- 
 much as they manufacture for their own wants as well as 
 for home use by others. But then their own direct con- 
 sumption of alcohol by no means includes the whole charge 
 their earnings have to bear; for the houses they live in 
 have been built and furnished by those who have been like 
 consumers ; the bread and meat they eat, the clothes they 
 wear, the comforts they enjoy, the rates they pay, have all 
 in the same manner been enhanced in cost by the value of 
 the liquor consumed by those engaged in their production. 
 In fact, this expenditure so runs through everything that it 
 is impossible to say where it begins or where it ends. It 
 imposes a tax upon whatever is grown or made, used or en- 
 joyed, and its reduction or extinction would lower the cost 
 of everything, so that a diminution of earnings or profits
 
 DRINKING AND DEPRESSION. 309 
 
 would really leave the recipient no worse off than at present ; 
 to say nothing of the absolute saving of the outlay on the 
 crime, sickness, and poverty which are the sure attendants 
 on the habitual use of intoxicants. 
 
 If, then, we are not wrong in charging this £120,000,000 
 of export with the £20,000,000 of unnecessary expenditure, 
 it is clear that if the prices at which we sell our goods can 
 bo maintained, there miglit be so much more money to be 
 shared between those by whose capital, skill, and labour 
 they are produced ; to be applied to purposes which in them- 
 selves would require more labour, support a larger popula- 
 tion, and employ more persons to supply their wants. If, 
 on the other hand, our foreign customers fall off in their 
 demands for our manufactures, as they have of late been 
 doing, the surest way to bring them back will be by a 
 reduction in price, such as might be done without injury, 
 at least to the extent of the amount saved on alcohol. 
 Dependent as we are upon other countries for the help we 
 find needed for the maintenance of our population, it is a 
 matter of vital importance for us to maintain our present 
 markets, and to extend rather than contract the sale of our 
 manufactures. 
 
 Whether, therefore, we look to the facility there exists 
 for reducing the cost of home produce and the expenditure 
 in foreign markets, or to the advantages to be derived from 
 lowering the expense of our manufactures for abroad, we see 
 most urgent reasons for the disuse in part, or even wholly, 
 of the present amount of stimulants. "We do not say that 
 tho ])resent depression of trade is to be attributed to this 
 cause alone — far from it — but we do say that it is an im- 
 portant factor in the case, and that its removal is one of tho 
 surest and safest remedies to which recourse may be had. 
 The subject may be somewhat difficult to elucidate or to 
 gain attention for, but the facts on which it rests and the 
 arguments by which it may be supported are not beyond 
 the reach of our intelligent working men and women, nor 
 by the elder boys and girls in our schools. To none of
 
 310 DRINKING AND DErRESSION. 
 
 these will they be wanting- in interest when fairly brought 
 to their notice. 
 
 In these and the previous remarks we have been seeking 
 to derive instruction from the statistics of the past, for the 
 surroundings of the present are none the less gloomy. Nor 
 are there many appearances of brightness in the prospects 
 of the future. We fear that there are hard lessons yet to 
 be learnt. It is not alone the vice of drunkenness which 
 has overspread the land, but the insidious habit of relying 
 upon stimulants to sustain forced exertions and continuous 
 labour, which is wasting so much money and sacrificing so 
 much power. It is this which prepares the way and leads 
 on to the more open evil. We rejoice, therefore, in the 
 awakening perception to the truth in this matter, and trust 
 that the financial arguments, though not the highest ground 
 to be taken, may in the present juncture of affairs prove 
 conclusive to many minds. Amidst all the distress and 
 anxiety which is causing '' men's hearts to fail them for fear 
 and for looking after those things which are coming on the 
 earth,'' we are reminded of the prophet's question, " Shall 
 there be evil in the city and the Lord have not done it ? " 
 May not these evil results of intemperance be permitted to 
 the end that we may see more clearly its enormity and 
 hasten to put away the accursed thing from among us ? 
 
 {^This paper has been inadvertently placed out oj" order ; it 
 should have stood No. X., p. 199.]
 
 XV. 
 
 On the Recent Revival in Trade.' 
 
 THE latest issued official accounts of the foreign and 
 colonial trade of the United Kingdom, together with 
 those of the several preceding months, bear testimony to a 
 very considerable increase in the quantity and value of both 
 imports and exports. The figures in which these are set 
 forth have been received as evidence that a real revival of 
 trade has set in, and is about to extend beyond the bounds 
 which have been reached in former years. Such an analysis 
 of these figures as may serve to indicate their real bearing 
 on the welfare of the country — both present and future — 
 will not, therefore, bo uninteresting; either to those engaged 
 in trade or manufacture, or to those who aro any way 
 concerned to understand the position in which we stand, or 
 that to which we may look forward. 
 
 It was during the sitting of the British Association in 
 the manufacturing town of Sheffield last year, that the first 
 gleams of returning prosperity were distinctly seen. There 
 had been for some months previously more frequent ap- 
 j)earances of ''paper" in the London Money Market of 
 American origin, which were taken as indications that there 
 was a stir in American trade ; and many proofs that the 
 depression into which trade on the other side of the 
 Atlantic had fallen was passing away. Not a few hopes 
 were expressed that this country would in like manner 
 
 ' Read ill Section F uf, the IJritisIi .Vssociution, Swansea, An;,'. 27, 
 1.S80.
 
 312 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 emerge from the depth into which its trade had fallen, so 
 soon as prosperity was again brightening the prospects of 
 the United States. The receipt, therefore, of orders for 
 various descriptions of our iron products — and especially 
 for rails — was immediately viewed as a precursor to manu- 
 facturing activity. Nor was the expectation unwarranted 
 by the results. A spirit of confidence at once sprung up, 
 and prices rose so high as to show that in addition to that 
 which had a sound basis, much speculative business was 
 going on. Thus a stimulus was given to production. 
 Higher* prices were asked and given, and for a time 
 there seemed to be no lack of buoyancy in almost every 
 market. Prices again gave way, but are now being par- 
 tially recovered, and the opinion is almost universally enter- 
 tained that a new era of prosperity is being entered upon. 
 Such being the case, it may be worth while to compare a 
 yearns transactions with those of the preceding one. The 
 early date at which the monthly accounts are now issued 
 from the Custom House gives us the means of compiling 
 for such comparison the twelvemonth ended July 31 last 
 with those which came to a conclusion on the last day of 
 July in 1879. We can thus place side by side the figures 
 for the worst year of depression and the first year of re- 
 covery. 
 
 Before entering into an examination of the details of the 
 last two years, it may be well to state the totals for each 
 year since 1871 — that is, so far back as they were collected, 
 on the same system as now exists ; and to show the diffe- 
 rence in value between the goods imported and those ex- 
 ported, as follows : — -
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 Year ending 
 
 Imports. 
 
 Exports. 
 
 Excess of 
 Iini)orts. 
 
 July 31, 1880 
 
 4J 
 
 404-31 
 345-78 
 
 387-35 
 38976 
 
 37^37 
 369-48 
 
 375-'2 
 3^6-43 
 
 349-85 
 
 il 
 271-24 
 239-H6 
 250-59 
 254-31 
 2(i(i-81 
 28S-H7 
 .'501-23 
 3-20-72 
 304-73 
 
 i: 
 
 13307 
 105-92 
 136-76 
 
 135-45 
 
 10556 
 
 80-61 
 
 '79 
 
 '78 
 
 •77 
 
 „ '76 
 
 „ '7.5 
 
 '74 
 
 73-89 
 45-71 
 4512 
 
 „ 73 
 
 " '"^ 
 
 It will thus be seen that of the irajiort.s the twelve 
 months jiast ended were the highest, and those of the pre- 
 ceding twelve the lowest of the whole series. Of the ex- 
 ports, the period ending in 1879 was likewi.se the lowest, 
 but that just ended was by no means the highest ; whilst 
 as rcgard.s the preponderance of imports, the most recent is 
 very nearly the greatest, there having been, until 1880, a 
 progressive decline in the value of the exports. Comparing 
 the years ending in 1880 and 1870 together, they differ in 
 all these particulars more widely from each other than any 
 of the preceding years, the growth in imports having been 
 £58'53,in exports £31-38, and in the excess of the former 
 £27*15. These figures include the whole of the imports 
 — those again sent away, as well as those retained for home 
 consumption ; and of the export.s both the re-exports and 
 the articles of British produce and mauufacture. 
 
 Separating the one class of exports from the other, it 
 appears that in the latter year they have amounted in value 
 to £2 14,000,000 Uritish, and about £57,000,000 foreign 
 and colonial, as against £187,000,000 of the one and 
 £53,000,000 of the other. These figures are not exact, 
 for the accounts of the foreign goods are only shown iu 
 total at the proper end of each year, but they are accurate 
 enough for the present purpose, and tell the increase of
 
 314 ON THE RECENT llEVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 Britisli to have been 2 "] , and of foreign between 4 and 5 
 millions of pounds. These foreign and colonial goods 
 show the activity of trade, and add to the national receipts 
 by the commissions and profits on their sale ; but, as regards 
 the employment of labour and capital, are of inferior im- 
 portance to the British. 
 
 In estimating the worth of this increase, very much 
 depends upon whether it has taken place in the quantities 
 of the goods that have been sold, or in the prices they have 
 realized. From so many of the articles being shown in the 
 accounts in value only, it is not possible to say how this may 
 have been as regards the whole, but by abstracting the 
 principal articles that are stated in both quantity and value, 
 the relation of the one to the other may be ascertained for 
 such portion of the exports, and it is not likely that the 
 proportions of the remainder will vary greatly. Classifying 
 the articles so abstracted, and calculating how far the 
 difference in value is due to greater quantities or altered 
 values, the following results appear. As before, in million 
 pounds to two decimals : —
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 315 
 
 [In million £"s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 Value of 
 E.xjHDrts, 
 1879-80. 
 
 More or 
 less than 
 1878-79. 
 
 Increase or decrease 
 due Vt 
 
 Quantity. IVice. 
 
 Coals 
 
 £ 
 
 8oi 
 
 3-i6 
 
 26T2 
 
 £ 
 •96 
 •24 
 
 8^44 
 
 £ 
 
 1-13 
 •10 
 
 7-63 
 
 £ 
 
 —-17 
 
 Copper 
 
 •14 
 
 Iron 
 
 •81 
 
 
 
 Mineral 
 
 37-29 
 
 9-G4 
 
 8-86 
 
 •78 
 
 
 
 Cotton Piece Goods 
 
 53-42 
 
 2'12 
 
 5-03 
 
 15-95 
 
 7^30 
 •30 
 •49 
 
 119 
 
 7-59 
 •26 
 
 •44 
 1-83 
 
 —•29 
 
 
 •04 
 
 Ijinen ,, „ 
 
 •05 
 
 A\^oollen ,, „ 
 
 — -64 
 
 
 
 Textile 
 
 76-52 
 
 928 
 
 10-I2 
 
 —•84 
 
 
 
 Cotton and otlior yarns 
 
 Alkali .' 
 
 19^02 
 
 2-32 
 
 1-73 
 2*92 
 
 r6i 
 
 •01 
 •38 
 
 — 09 
 
 — 09 
 •01 
 
 —58 
 
 •24 
 
 —•09 
 
 —■23 
 —•03 
 
 -59 
 •14 
 
 lieer 
 
 
 Leather 
 
 •14 
 
 
 -04 
 
 
 
 
 27-60 
 
 •22 
 
 —69 
 
 •91 
 
 
 
 Total specified 
 
 141-41 
 
 1914 
 
 18-29 
 
 •85 
 
 
 
 Since the full value of all the British manufactures ex- 
 ported for the year ia 214 millions, and tliat of these 
 specified articles is nearly 142, the evidence thus afforded 
 relates to two-thirds of the whole. In like manner with 
 the increase, 27 millions for the whole and 19 for the 
 enumerated. 
 
 PLxaiiiining these particulars more closely, it will bo seen 
 that the increase of £19*14 is between 15 and IG per 
 cent, on the exports of the previous twelve months, and 
 that of this aiiioimt ,£i8'29, or 051 per cent., is owing to 
 tlie (piaiitities havinj^^been greater, and only £'85, or l-l per 
 cent., has arisen from better prices having been obtained. 
 But whilst these are the proportions of the whole, the rates
 
 316 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 on the dififerent classes of goods differ very much. Thus in 
 coals and metals the increase has been 35 per cent., on 
 textile manufactures 14 per cent., and in the miscellaneous 
 less than 1 per cent. So in respect to the gain in quantities, 
 the minerals are greater by 92 per cent., and the prices are 
 better by 8 per cent. In textile fabrics the increased 
 quantities should have given 9 per cent, more money than 
 was actually credited, but failed to do so because the prices 
 were less to this extent. On the contrary, in the few mis- 
 cellaneous articles shown above there was a real diminution 
 of quantity, but an increase in price, whereby what would 
 have been a loss of 2 '- per cent, became converted into a 
 gain of something less than 1 per cent. Descending more 
 into detail, iron figures for very nearly one-third of the 
 whole year's gain, viz., £8*44 out of i.2"], and cotton piece 
 goods for £7*30, or one-fourth. Of the gain in iron, one- 
 tenth only is due to price, whilst cotton goods have sold 
 for a trifle less than the previous price. On the other hand, 
 cotton yarn has decreased in quantity but somewhat gained 
 in price, and woollen piece goods, though increasing 13 per 
 cent, in quantity have fallen 4 per cent, in price. 
 
 Taking the whole of the exports together, these figures 
 establish the fact that the very low prices of manufactured 
 goods which prevailed in the latter part of 1878 and the 
 earlier part of 1879, have continued to rule since that time; 
 and that for very nearly all the addition to the values of 
 that which left our shores before the revival, we have had 
 to give extra quantities, the advantage in point of prices 
 obtained having been inconsiderable. If, therefore, the 
 business of selling has yielded any better return, it must 
 have been because the manufacturer received less ; and if 
 the manufacturer gained at all, it must have been either 
 from the lesser value of money or a reduction in the wages 
 of his labourers. Further, as will be shown in dealing with 
 the imports, in the cost of the raw materials from abroad, 
 from which most of our textile fabrics are woven, there has 
 been, especially in cotton, a decided increase.
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 317 
 
 Turning now to the imports, and separating those re- 
 tained at home from those re-exported, we find a total value 
 of about £347,000,000, as against £293,000,000 in 1879. 
 Abstracting, as with the exports, the chief articles, and 
 classifying them according to their uses, the following 
 figures present themselves : — 
 
 [In million £'3 to two decimals.] 
 
 
 "Value of 
 
 Imports, 
 
 1879-80. 
 
 More or 
 less than 
 1878-79. 
 
 Increase or decrease 
 due to 
 
 Quantity. ] Price. 
 
 Meat, live and dead 
 
 £ 
 23-72 
 15-34 
 
 64-35 
 3-68 
 
 32-66 
 8-24 
 1-95 
 
 £ 
 
 4-06 
 
 1-18 
 
 13-96 
 
 1-93 
 
 -26 
 
 1-69 
 
 —•58 
 
 £ 
 
 3-70 
 I-15 
 632 
 
 1-95 
 —-68 
 
 1-18 
 —•18 
 
 £ 
 -36 
 
 Butter and cheese 
 
 •03 
 
 Corn and flour 
 
 7-64 
 
 Potatoes 
 
 — -02 
 
 CoiFee, tea, and sugar 
 
 Spirits and wine 
 
 •94 
 •51 
 
 Tobacco 
 
 —•40 
 
 
 
 Food 
 
 149-94 
 
 2-2-50 1 13-44 
 
 9-06 
 
 
 
 Cotton, raw 
 
 37-63 
 9-31 
 2-64 
 
 1 1-77 
 
 10-50 
 
 7-21 
 
 3-29 
 
 Flax, hemp, and jute 
 
 Silii, raw 
 
 2-66 
 
 •76 
 
 1-79 
 
 2-03 
 
 -92 
 
 2-02 
 
 -63 
 — 16 
 
 Wool, sheep's 
 
 — -23 
 
 
 
 
 Textile 
 
 61-35 
 
 15-71 1 l2-i8 
 
 3-53 
 
 
 
 Iron ore and manufacture... 
 Copper 
 
 5-80 
 
 4-13 
 12-38 
 
 5-02 
 
 1-86 
 
 -34 
 
 2-03 
 
 1-36 
 
 1-78 
 
 2-28 
 1-03 
 
 •08 
 •34 
 
 W..(,d 
 
 —-25 
 
 Hides and luatiicr 
 
 •33 
 
 
 
 Aletals, &c 
 
 27-33 
 
 5-59 ! 5-09 
 
 •50 
 
 
 
 Total 8pecifie<l 
 
 238-62 
 
 43-80 
 
 to- 7 1 i 13-09 
 
 
 
 
 As with the exports, these selected articles form about 
 two-thirds of the whole of tlic importations retained for 
 home consumption or manufacture — namely, 
 
 238 millions
 
 318 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 out of 347; but they absorb more than that proportion of 
 the increase over the previous year — namely, 44 out of ^4, 
 which is equal to four-fifths. 
 
 Coming to details, it will be seen that this increase of 
 4 3 'So is 22|^ per cent, on the value of the previous year, 
 whereas on the exports it was not much more than 15 per 
 cent., from which it is clear that the value of the additional 
 goods received for home use has exceeded that of the de- 
 liveries for sale abroad in the proportion of very nearly 3 
 to 2. Of this amount £30*71, or 70 per cent., is owing to 
 the quantities having been greater, and £13*09, or 30 per 
 cent., from better prices having been obtained. 
 
 The first division in the foregoing table, consisting of 
 food, with which are included beverages and tobacco, is by 
 far the largest, taking more than one-half of the whole sum 
 — 1 50 millions out of 239 ; and its share of the increase for 
 the year is nearly in the same proportion (2 2|: out of 44), 
 the increase itself being 174: per cent, beyond last yearns 
 supplies. In the raw material for textile manufactures — 
 £61*35, which is rather more than a fourth of the whole, 
 shows an increase over last year of £15*71, equal to 34 
 per cent. In the remaining class, including the principal 
 metals, wood, and leather, £27*33, comprising one-sixth of 
 the whole, the increase in the year is £5*59, or 26 per cent. 
 Dividing, then, the surplus between volume and value, it ap- 
 pears that of the increase, that in food has been from 60 per 
 cent., in textile materials 77 per cent., and in the others 91 
 per cent, on the quantities. So, in respect to the prices 
 paid, which have been 40 per cent, on food, 23 on textile 
 materials, and 9 per cent, on metals, &c. 
 
 It needs no very close observation of these figures to 
 discover the marked contrast they present to those for the 
 exports, in that, whilst those showed the rise of prices to 
 have been comparatively little, these manifest a decided 
 advance, particularly in almost every article of food proper. 
 We have not only consumed more, but that consumption 
 has been more costly, as well as more abundant. In proof
 
 ON THE llECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 319 
 
 that this is really the case, two articles may bo singled 
 out, sharing between them in nearly equal portions rather 
 more than half the whole increase in outlay. These are 
 wheat — the food for the body, that on which more than 
 on anything else we depend for the power to manufac- 
 ture ; and cotton, the food for our mills, on which vastly 
 more than on any other article we depend for the mainte- 
 nance of our power to produce that which we can exchange 
 for food. Of wheat we have within the year consumed, or 
 are storing up for consumption, that which has cost us 
 £12,000,000 more than in the previous year; and of this 
 amount £7,000,000 has been spent because our growth at 
 home was deficient in quantity, and £5,000,000 because 
 that deficiency enhanced the price the consumers have had 
 to pay. Of cotton wool we have imported and kept that 
 which has cost us £10,500,000 ; and of this £7,250,000 
 has gone to provide the additional weight, and £3,250,000 
 the extra price at which it has been procured. Of this 
 additional cotton as near as possible one-half has gone 
 away again in the shape of manufactured goods, the other 
 half being added to the stocks on hand, or consumed for 
 home purposes. 
 
 Thus far wo have been considering the articles in which 
 the country has traded, and the money value they repre- 
 sent ; but an important branch of the inquiry relates to the 
 countries with which that trade has been carried on, and 
 the altered conditions in which it stands. The figures that 
 may servo to illustrate these points are not so complete 
 as those with which wo have been dealing, for it is only 
 at the close of each year that the necessary accounts are 
 ])ublished, and these do not show the tnxnsactions of the 
 respective months which must form a portioH of any period 
 ending otherwise than on Decern bor 31. The quarterly ac- 
 counts furnish materials for compiling the value of the whole 
 imports for the twelve mouths ending in June, but not 
 f(ir those re-exported ; and those for the cxjxirts contain 
 only the values of British produce and mauuOutun', I'lom
 
 320 
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 these data, however, it is possible to obtain a pretty clear 
 idea of the directions which the trade has been taking, 
 and the differences between its progress during each of 
 the twelve months completed on June 30, 1879 and 1880. 
 The following is a condensed account of the value of the 
 United Kingdom manufactures which have been exported 
 to the British possessions and foreign countries. 
 
 [In million £'s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 1879-80. 
 
 1878-79. 
 
 Excess of 
 former. 
 
 To British India 
 
 £ 
 28-68 
 
 8-46 
 15-48 
 
 6-50 
 
 8-67 
 
 £ 
 23-39 
 
 8-05 
 18-46 
 
 5-70 
 
 753 
 
 £ 
 
 5'29 
 
 ■41 
 
 —2-98 
 
 •80 
 
 „ Africa 
 
 , , Australia 
 
 North America 
 
 ,, Other Possessions 
 
 1-14 
 
 
 
 67-79 
 
 63-13 
 
 4-66 
 
 To Foreign Countries in Europe 
 
 79-88 
 II-20 
 
 4 26 
 3o"49 
 
 17-05 
 
 80-72 
 
 8-78 
 
 3-97 
 
 15-14 
 
 16-43 
 
 --84 
 
 2-42 
 
 -29 
 
 15-35 
 •62 
 
 ,, „ Africa 
 
 „ United States of America 
 
 „ Other Countries in ,, 
 
 
 
 
 142-88 
 
 125-04 
 
 17-84 
 
 Total to British Possessions and 
 foreign countries 
 
 210-67 
 
 188-17 
 
 22-50 
 
 If we except Australia, to which there has been so 
 marked a decline — the effect, doubtless, of her protective 
 tariff — the only countries that show a great difference in 
 the two years — and these both in the way of increase — are 
 British India and the United States of America. India 
 has taken from us in cotton yarn and piece goods to the 
 value of £l8'99 against £14*72, thus nearly accounting 
 for the above excess, and going far towards repaying us 
 for the raw cotton purchased from her. The United States
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE, 
 
 321 
 
 have drawn upon us for iron and other metals to the value 
 of £i r03 against £3* 14, and for cotton and other textiles 
 £9'56 against £5*34, thus more than returning the in- 
 creased sums paid by us for her wheat and flour. 
 
 Following the same arrangement, the imports for the 
 same periods show thus : — 
 
 [In million £'.s to two decimals.] 
 
 
 187980. 
 
 1878-9. 
 
 Excess of 
 former. 
 
 From Uritish India 
 
 £ 
 
 35 '5 1 
 6-67 
 2326 
 10-69 
 10-30 
 
 £ 
 31-64 
 
 6-01 
 22-80 
 
 9*71 
 
 8*42 
 
 •66 
 
 „ Africa 
 
 „ Australia . ... 
 
 •46 
 
 •98 
 
 1-88 
 
 „ North America 
 
 „ Other Possessions 
 
 
 86-43 
 
 78-58 
 
 7-85 
 
 From Foreign conntries of Eurojjc 
 
 „ Asia 
 
 „ Africa 
 
 United Stiitcs of America 
 
 161-8S 
 
 17-35 
 
 14-19 
 
 100-92 
 
 20*62 
 
 14()-50 
 
 lfi*23 
 
 8-67 
 
 81-63 
 
 19-74 
 
 15-38 
 
 1*12 
 
 5-52 
 19*29 
 
 -88 
 
 Other countries in „ 
 
 
 
 
 314*96 
 
 272-77 
 
 42-19 
 
 Total from British Possessions and 
 Foreign Countries 
 
 401-39 
 
 351-35 
 
 50-04 
 
 
 These figures indicate that the expansion of our import 
 trade has been a benefit to almost every country, though 
 hero India and the United States, with Pigypt, have been 
 the most prominent. In all these the two great articles of 
 corn and cotton have had the principal part. 'J'hat with 
 the various countries of PJuropo is so largo that a slight 
 addition to each, arising in great measure from our de- 
 mands for corn, makes up a considerable total. The chief 
 interest, however, centres in the supplies wo have drawn 
 from the United {States. AVheat and flour together 
 
 Y
 
 322 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE, 
 
 amounted in 1878-9 to £17-46, and in 1879-80 to £26-58; 
 cotton to £2 2 "68 in the formcrj to £28-37 in the latter. 
 
 The analysis to which these figures have been submitted 
 serves to bring out many points of especial interest con- 
 nected with the present revival, and should afford much 
 food for thought as regards its probable course and dura- 
 tion. 
 
 In the first place, it shows that, great as has been the 
 increase in our exportations, that in our import trade is far 
 greater. If we have sold in the last twelve months to the 
 value of £32,000,000 more than we did in the previous 
 twelve, we have also received more goods to the value of 
 £59,000,000, thus leaving a greater balance to be pro- 
 vided for. No doubt a considerable portion of that 
 £27,000,000 will remain with us in payment for freights, 
 commissions earned, or profits realized; but an ample allow- 
 ance for these must still leave a large amount to be met 
 either by payments in bullion, the transfer of securities, or 
 as deferred obligations. Nor must it be forgotten that 
 there is a continual stream of capital flowing from this 
 country for investment in our colonies and in foreign lands, 
 which going out mostly in goods or in bills which serve as 
 payment for goods, the actual receipts for our exports are 
 lessened thereby. There is, on the other hand, capital 
 returning for investment here, which in like manner is 
 represented by imports; but all our experience justifies the 
 supposition that the influx from this cause is less than the 
 eflflux. Much of the former is held here on foreign account, 
 liable at any moment to be withdrawn ; hence the doubts 
 so freely expressed at the present moment whether a drain 
 of gold may not soon set in. 
 
 Secondly, it is evident that on the whole the prices 
 obtained for our exports are only to a trifling extent better 
 than they were, whilst the prices paid for our imports are 
 considerably enhanced. Thus the revival has been much 
 more to the advantage of the sellers of the goods we have 
 consumed than to that of those who sold our own produce
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 323 
 
 or manufacture. In the complicated state of trade transac- 
 tions it is impossible to say whether any or how much of 
 this advantage belongs to our merchants, since this depends 
 upon the ownership at the time when the sales are effected. 
 As between the actual producers and consumers it is clear 
 that a higher rate of payments for imports, with nearly 
 stationary receipts for exports, cannot increase the pro- 
 sperity of either one or the other. It would seem to bo 
 the case that sales are effected because prices are low, and 
 that purchases are made because we need them, although 
 prices are high. Take, for instance, the fact that the 
 cotton used up in the manufacture of our piece-goods has 
 failed to bring in the higher price which the advanced cost 
 of the raw material would justify or require. 
 
 Thirdly, the whole excess in the value of the exports is 
 scarcely equivalent to the extra cost of the food we have 
 imported. Unless we can suppose that large stocks of 
 produce and manufacture, or the means of producing them, 
 are prepared for future sale, in readiness to obtain a profit 
 when parted with, it follows that, as a whole, all the gain of 
 extended foreign outward trade has but gone in the suste- 
 nance of those by whom the goods have been produced, 
 leaving nothing wherewith to recompense capital or for the 
 accumulation of wealth. 
 
 This brings us to the really important consideration 
 whether the food question is not truly at the bottom of the 
 recent fluctuations in trade. For a scries of years our own 
 supplies have been scanty, and the bad harvest of last year 
 rendered us more than ever dependent upon the produce 
 of foreign countries, particularly of America. Purchasing 
 largely from the western growers, and giving them remune- 
 rative prices, they have large profits to expend upon our 
 manufactures. Encouraged by the successive annually in- 
 creasing quantities they were able to sell, they have been 
 laying themselves out to meet our wants, and, anticipating 
 an ever-growing call for their produce, they have deter- 
 mined by means of new railways to bring larger quantities
 
 324 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 
 
 and at lesser cost, from the distant fields in the west to the 
 seaboard in the east. Hence the sudden demand for rails 
 and for the iron to make them which the pits and the mills 
 of their own country could not supply, but which the 
 diminution of prices here enabled them to obtain sufficiently 
 low to counteract the otherwise prohibitory duties of their 
 own tarifi*. Trade thus started in one direction speedily 
 spread in others, and extended far beyond the boundaries 
 in which it emanated. The repeated adversities of former 
 years have caused the depression of 1878-9 to be greater 
 than the causes warranted, and with the changes of last 
 autumn confidence became restored, and this of itself creates 
 trade. 
 
 The supposition that this revival is greatly owing to the 
 failure of our home crops derives much confirmation from 
 the fact, that whilst the best authorities estimate the 
 diminished growth of wheat last year at from five to six 
 million quarters, worth some eleven or twelve millions of 
 money, our purchases of corn from the United States alone 
 were fully that amount in excess ; to compensate for which 
 they took from us iron and other metals and textile manu- 
 factures together to the value of twelve millions more than 
 in 1878-9. We have here a beautiful illustration of the 
 way in which Nature, rather let us say the Author of 
 Nature's laws, the Divine Ruler, who orders the course of 
 Nature for the welfare of His creatures, counteracts one 
 disturbing element by the restorative power of another. 
 When the fertilizing influence of the sun's heat failed us 
 last year, vegetation languished and our fields failed to 
 yield their accustomed supplies. From whence did relief 
 come but from the latent heat, which ages back became 
 imprisoned in the depths of our coal pits, being brought 
 forth and utilized for the production of those manufactures 
 wherewith we purchased corn elsewhere ? Where can we 
 look for a more convincing argument in favour of free trade 
 than is to be found in the blessings it procured for us in 
 permitting this unrestricted exchange of the commodities
 
 ON THE RECENT REVIVAL IN TRADE. 325 
 
 absolutely necessary to our existence, and of special impor- 
 tance to our brethren in America ? Whilst we sympathize 
 ■with our agriculturists in the loss of their substance and the 
 severe trials which they are enduring, let us rejoice that 
 the evil was stayed from spreading to our manufacturers 
 and traders, and thereby involving them in the like suffer- 
 ing. Let us not, however, be led away by undue expecta- 
 tions for the future. A good harvest at home — still more, 
 a succession of them, if conilnnod with greater productive- 
 ness abroad — would so far depress prices as to lessen tho 
 purchasing power of the food-growers at home, whilst we 
 should not need to buy so largely from abroad. Thus those 
 who have latterly supported our markets will fail to pur- 
 chase as they have done, and if our manufacturing industries 
 are to be sustained we must not rely on a repetition of the 
 demands that have latterly been made upon them. 
 
 There is too much danger at present that we shall bo 
 drawn into wild speculations and expectations, such as led 
 up to the fictitious prosperity of seven years back, and cul- 
 minated in the depression of more recent years. Let us 
 not delude ourselves with the belief that the inflation of 
 1871-3 is about to return — that fortunes are going to bo 
 made as rapidly as then, or wages to rise to the same level. 
 Let us not, however, give way to gloomy fears. Cheap food 
 will foster cheap production, and though our old customers 
 may under its influence be enabled to supply their own 
 wants, there are new races of purchasers to be found or 
 called into being, and new homes to be founded by those 
 who are cumbering the ground here I'ather than tilling it in 
 tho distant parts of the Empire. Tho judicious transferal 
 of much of our capital and labour to places abroad, where 
 there is ample room for its profitable employment, together 
 with greater thrift — individual, family, and national — at 
 home, are tho true sources on which to rely for the main- 
 tenance or restoration of our manufacturing and commer- 
 cial supremacy.
 
 XVI. 
 
 The Finance of '^ National Insurance."^ 
 
 THE scheme for the prevention of pauperism pro- 
 pounded by the Rev. W. L. Blackley, in the pages 
 of the " Nineteenth Century/^ of November^ 1878, and so 
 ably defended and enforced in his sermon in Westminster 
 Abbey on September 28th, 1879, and on numerous sub- 
 sequent occasions, commends itself to the sympathies of 
 many who cannot altogether acquiesce in the conclusions 
 at which he arrives, or see the matter to be one so easy of 
 settlement as many of those who support the plan believe 
 it to be. The formation of the " National Providence 
 League for Promoting National Compulsory Insurance 
 against destitution, or sickness, infirmity, and old age,^' 
 Lord Shaftesbury being its president, with a goodly array 
 of clerical dignitaries and well-known philanthropists as 
 its Council, has removed the subject from the region of 
 speculative theory to that of proposed practical application ; 
 and the warm advocacy of the project by Lord Carnarvon 
 in the House of Lords, together with the influential support 
 it has received, and the active exertions made towards 
 securing Parliamentary sanction for the establishment of a 
 National Club, all justify a close examination into the merits 
 of the scheme, in order that if practicable its adoption may 
 be generally promoted, or if impracticable, it may be 
 discarded. 
 
 The plan itself may be stated as one which provides — 
 
 ^ Read before the Social Science Congress at Edinburgh, Oct., 1880.
 
 THE FINANCE OF "NATIONAL INSURANCE." 327 
 
 1st. That every male should be compelled at some period 
 previous to arriving at full age to contribute the sum of 
 £10 to the funds of a National Club, established under 
 Government guarantee. 
 
 2nd. That for this payment he should be entitled to 
 receive " aid in sickness to the amount of 8s. per week 
 till he reaches seventy years of ago, and a pension of 4s. 
 weekly from that age till his death." 
 
 The organized arrangements for receiving and paying 
 these amounts, it is not intended to discuss on the present 
 occasion, nor yet to enter upon the disputed points as to 
 whether such compulsion can or ought to be exercised. It 
 is proposed simply to inquire into the financial soundness 
 of the scheme ; that is, whether the proposed contribution, 
 if made, would suffice to provide for the proposed grants 
 contingent upon sickness during the working years of life, 
 and of definite pensions to the survivors when these years are 
 past. The latter portion of the inquiry is simple enough, for 
 the average duration of life is well ascertained, and the sums 
 necessary for the purchase through the P. 0. Savings' Bank 
 of annuities for life to commence at the age of seventy, are 
 published in every number of the " Postal Guide,^' or are to 
 be obtained from any life assurance office which deals in 
 this branch of business. But it is not so easy to calculate the 
 expected claims on account of sickness, for the average periods 
 during which incapacity for work from this cause prevail 
 at the different ages of life have never yet been accurately 
 determined. The only basis on which such calculations 
 can rest is the experience derived from the records of the 
 various Clubs and Friendly Societies already in existence. 
 There are many reasons why absolute reliance cannot bo 
 placed upon them ; but before alluding to some of these, it 
 may be well to see how far the computations based upon the 
 information furnished from this source ^vill servo to show 
 that the enforced payment will bo sufficient for the ends 
 proposed. 
 
 Mr. Blackley assumes that the proposed £10 will bo
 
 328 
 
 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 paid cither in one sum or by instalments during one, two, 
 or three years, so that it may be completed before the age 
 of 20 years is attained, say on an average at 19. Let us 
 then suppose that such a scheme had been in operation 
 some ten or twelve years, and taking the census figures 
 of 1871 for England and Wales as a guide, calculate the 
 growth of a fund arising from the payment of £10 from each 
 lad of 19 alive in that year, subjected to the anticipated 
 payments for sick allowances through fifty-one successive 
 years, when those who survive would be at the ago of 70, 
 and become claimants for the promised weekly pensions. 
 
 Table showing for England and Wales (a) number of males living in 
 1871 at each age from 19 to 70; (i), estimated average period of in- 
 capacity from sickness in each year ; (c), total number of weeks' 
 sickness for existing lives; (rf), net amount of sick allowances to be 
 provided. 
 
 [In million and decimals.] 
 
 
 
 Sickness. 
 
 Total 
 
 amount of 
 
 sick 
 
 Year of 
 Fund. 
 
 Ages. 
 
 Number living. 
 
 Average in Weeks. 
 
 
 
 Per head. 
 
 Total. 
 
 allowances. 
 
 
 
 (a) 
 
 (f>) 
 
 {c) 
 
 (d) 
 
 
 19—20 
 
 •205692 
 
 •7022 
 
 •145 
 
 £-058 
 
 1st 
 
 —21 
 
 •201047 
 
 •7223 
 
 •145 
 
 •058 
 
 2nd 
 
 —22 
 
 •196061 
 
 •7405 
 
 •145 
 
 •058 
 
 3rd 
 
 —23 
 
 •193070 
 
 •7565 
 
 •145 
 
 -058 
 
 4th 
 
 —24 
 
 •188790 
 
 •7699 
 
 •145 
 
 •058 
 
 5th 
 
 —25 
 
 •184184 
 
 •7803 
 
 -144 
 
 -058 
 
 6th 
 
 —26 
 
 •179723 
 
 •7913 
 
 •141 
 
 -056 
 
 7 th 
 
 —27 
 
 •174938 
 
 •8061 
 
 •141 
 
 -056 
 
 8th 
 
 —28 
 
 •170191 
 
 •8240 
 
 •140 
 
 •056 
 
 9th 
 
 —29 
 
 •165541 
 
 •8444 
 
 •139 
 
 •056 
 
 10th 
 
 —30 
 
 •161023 
 
 •8668 
 
 •140 
 
 •056 
 
 11th 
 
 —31 
 
 •156734 
 
 •8971 
 
 •140 
 
 -056 
 
 12th 
 
 —32 
 
 •152545 
 
 •9258 
 
 •141 
 
 -056 
 
 13th 
 
 —33 
 
 •148492 
 
 •9522 
 
 •142 
 
 -057 
 
 14th 
 
 —34 
 
 •144536 
 
 •9811 
 
 •142 
 
 •057 
 
 15th 
 
 ^35 
 
 •140790 
 
 1^0115 
 
 •142 
 
 •057 
 
 16th 
 
 —36 
 
 •137307 
 
 1-0339 
 
 •143 
 
 •057 
 
 17th 
 
 —37 
 
 •133962 
 
 1^0613 
 
 •142 
 
 -057 
 
 18th 
 
 —38 
 
 •130758 
 
 1-0956 
 
 •143 
 
 -057 
 
 19th 
 
 —39 
 
 •127662 
 
 1-1327 
 
 •145 
 
 •058 
 
 20th 
 
 —40 
 
 •124611 
 
 1-1747 
 
 •146 
 
 •058 
 
 21st 
 
 —41 
 
 •121709 
 
 1-2217 
 
 •151 
 
 •060 
 
 22nd 
 
 —42 
 
 •118745 
 
 1-2766 
 
 -151 
 
 -060 
 
 23rd 
 
 Car. forward 
 
 3-658111 
 
 ! 
 
 3-298 
 
 £1-318 

 
 NATIONAL INSURANCE. 
 
 
 Number living. 
 
 Sickness. 1 
 
 Total 
 amount of 
 
 sick 
 allowances. 
 
 Year of 
 Fund. 
 
 Ages. 
 
 Average ir 
 Per head. 
 
 Weeks. 
 Total. 
 
 
 («) 
 
 U>) 
 
 (C) 
 
 {d) 
 
 
 Brht. forward 
 
 3-658111 
 
 
 3-298 
 
 £1-318 
 
 
 —43 
 
 •1 l.-)90G 
 
 1 -3395 
 
 • I 55 
 
 -0o2 
 
 24th 
 
 —44 
 
 •n;52ti4 
 
 1-4104 
 
 -159 
 
 -004 
 
 25 th 
 
 —45 
 
 •1107'.i7 
 
 r48'.»3 
 
 -164 
 
 -005 
 
 20lh 
 
 —46 
 
 •108537 
 
 1-5701 
 
 •170 
 
 -068 
 
 27tli 
 
 — 47 
 
 •106541 
 
 1-6095 
 
 •177 
 
 -071 
 
 28lh 
 
 —48 
 
 •1()46(»3 
 
 1-7093 
 
 •185 
 
 -074 
 
 29 th 
 
 —49 
 
 ■102047 
 
 1-8758 
 
 -192 
 
 -077 
 
 oOth 
 
 -50 
 
 •O'.);)074 
 
 1-9887 
 
 •198 
 
 -079 
 
 31st 
 
 —51 
 
 •0'.).")S88 
 
 2^1082 
 
 •202 
 
 -080 
 
 32nd 
 
 5-i 
 
 •092400 
 
 2^2219 
 
 -205 
 
 -082 
 
 33nl 
 
 - J3 
 
 •088996 
 
 2-3899 
 
 •210 
 
 -084 
 
 34 ih 
 
 —54 
 
 •085525 
 
 25523 
 
 •218 
 
 -087 
 
 35th 
 
 —55 
 
 •082040 
 
 ? 2-70 
 
 •222 
 
 -089 
 
 36th 
 
 —56 
 
 •078620 
 
 ? 2-86 
 
 •226 
 
 -090 
 
 37 th 
 
 —57 
 
 •075247 
 
 ? 3-03 
 
 •228 
 
 -091 
 
 38th 
 
 —58 
 
 •071936 
 
 ? 3-21 
 
 •230 
 
 -092 
 
 39th 
 
 —59 
 
 •068095 
 
 ? 3-40 
 
 •235 
 
 •094 
 
 40th 
 
 —60 
 
 •065527 
 
 ? 3^60 
 
 •236 
 
 -094 
 
 41st 
 
 —61 
 
 •002434 
 
 ? 3-81 
 
 •240 
 
 -096 
 
 42nd 
 
 — G2 
 
 •059410 
 
 ? 4-03 
 
 •240 
 
 -096 
 
 43rd 
 
 —63 
 
 •056151 
 
 ? 4-27 
 
 •240 
 
 •096 
 
 44th 
 
 —64 
 
 •053548 
 
 ? 4^51 
 
 •241 
 
 •096 
 
 45 th 
 
 —65 
 
 •050094 
 
 ?4 85 
 
 -246 
 
 •098 
 
 46th 
 
 —66 
 
 •047880 
 
 ? 5-14 
 
 •240 
 
 •092 
 
 47 th 
 
 —67 
 
 •045096 
 
 ? 5^34 
 
 -241 
 
 •096 
 
 48th 
 
 —68 
 
 •042340 
 
 ? 5-60 
 
 -240 
 
 •096 
 
 49th 
 
 —69 
 
 •039003 
 
 ? 6-09 
 
 -239 
 
 •096 
 
 50th 
 
 —70 
 
 •036884 
 
 ? 6^45 
 
 -240 
 
 •096 
 
 51st 
 
 
 5-818154 
 
 
 9-317 
 
 £3-719 
 
 
 70 and upwards 
 
 •035535 
 
 @ £76 2s. 
 
 each. 
 
 £2-704 
 
 In per- 
 petuity. 
 
 
 5^853689 
 
 £6^423 
 
 In the foregoing table the first and second columns show 
 for each year of age from 19 to 70, the exact number of 
 males then alive ; and assumintif tlio rate of mortality to 
 remain unchanged, the yearly diminution of numbers, and 
 consequently of claimants for sick allowances in each year 
 of the fund's existence will be soon. The third column 
 contains tho estimated average extent of sicknes.s, in 
 decimals of a week or whole weeks. The fourth column 
 brings out tlio number of weeks for tho wholt! existing 
 number, and the fifth tho sum to which Ss. for each week
 
 330 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 would amount in each year up to 70 ; and for that age the 
 cost of a lifo annuity equivalent to the 4s. of weekly pension. 
 Each line will therefore show the amount for the payment 
 of which the fund would be liable in each successive year, 
 and the total the full amount of liability incurred during its 
 whole duration. 
 
 Dealing, then, in the first instance, with the £10 per head 
 paid by those who in 1871 had completed their nineteenth 
 but not their twentieth year, the fund would start with a 
 capital sum of £2,056,920, the annual interest on which at 
 3 per cent, would yield £61,708, wherewith to provide the 
 8s. per week during the sickness of the next fifty years, and 
 4s. per week for the remainder of life. In the first year the 
 expected sickness per head being "7022 of a week, would 
 for the whole number amount to 145,000 weeks, absorbing 
 £58,000 ; that is, allowing but a moderate sum for expenses of 
 management, not far short of the whole accruing interest. 
 In the following years the number of claimants would be 
 diminished by death to the numbers shown in the table, but 
 the average of sickness increasing with age would for several 
 years keep pace with this diminution, and thus still leave 
 no room for accumulation. In fact, it would seem that the 
 charge on the fund would be the same at the age of forty as 
 at twenty. From that time forward the increase in sickness 
 would overbalance the decrease by death, and the claims 
 begin to exceed the income; and this with considerable 
 rapidity up to the age of fifty-four, when, including expenses, 
 the payments cannot be taken at less than £90,000 per 
 annum, one-third of which would have to be paid out of the 
 capital, as a smaller proportion had been for the previous 
 years since forty-one or forty-two. From the age of fifty-five 
 upwards it is believed that no trustworthy information as to 
 the extent of sickness is to be obtained, but taking the 
 same progressive increase as before, which must certainly 
 err on the side of being too little, the annual claims would 
 probably stand as in the table at about £96,000 per annum 
 for the years between sixty and seventy. Now these succes-
 
 "national insurance." 331 
 
 sive inroads upon the capital with which the fund originally 
 started would, with the accruing compound interest at the 
 rates given, have reached to £1,047,000, or rather more 
 than one-half the commencing sum. Then according to the 
 table the number of those living to pass the age of seventy 
 would be 35,635, each of whom would become entitled to 
 an annuity of 4s. per week, or £10 8s. per annum; to pur- 
 chase which, according to the price given for the Post Office 
 Savings' Bank, would require £76 2s. per head, or a total of 
 £2,704,000. To meet this there would be less than one 
 million of money left. A fund, therefore, formed upon 
 these conditions would become bankrupt before ajl the 
 claimants upon it had expired. If we suppose that in each 
 year a fresh batch of payments were made by those arriving 
 at the required age, we have but to multiply each of these by 
 the number of years that have elapsed to ascertain exactly 
 how much would have been contributed at any given year, and 
 to add together the successive claims in the table up to the 
 same period, to know what would then constitute the out- 
 goings. If we take the state of the fund at seventy years we 
 shall find that £2,056,920 x 51 =£104,902,920 will have been 
 paid, of which a large portion, though not the half, will have 
 been sunk to supply the deficiencies in the amount received as 
 interest ; and that the annual claims for sick allowance, and 
 the purchase of pensions would require £6,423,000, or more 
 than double the income the fund would produce, even if it 
 had suffered no diminution in its progress. 
 
 These figures relate only to England and Wales ; the 
 population of Scotland is about 15 per cent., and that of 
 Ireland some 24 per cent, of the English, and assuming 
 their relative number at the respective ages to be the same, 
 it would need at least £9,000,000 to provide for all. But 
 this is not its full extent, for in these days, when women are 
 so greatly earners of wages, there can bo no reason why they 
 should not be called upon in like manner to contribute. 
 Pauperism prevails far more with them than vnih men, and 
 needs the same provision for sickness and infirmity.
 
 332 TDE FINANCE OF 
 
 Mr. Blackley, however, in fixing the required contribution 
 from each young man at £10, does not calculate upon its 
 being sufficient to provide for sickness and old age in all, 
 for this he would name £15. The calculation is based 
 upon two suppositions — first that whilst all, rich and poor 
 alike, would bo compelled to pay, a large number would fail 
 to claim either allowance. Again, he expects that the funds 
 would be invested at 4 instead of 3 per cent. Both these 
 expectations need to be carefully examined. 
 
 There can be no manner of doubt that, although in justice, 
 every individual who had contributed would be entitled to 
 come upon the fund, many would not do so ; but the 
 abstainers would scarcely be so large a number as might be 
 anticipated. The feeling would be pretty general that the 
 allowances having been fairly purchased might be justly 
 taken. No charitable emotions would interfere, since 
 Government would be paymaster; and in a great many 
 cases it would be the trouble of obtaining the grant, not 
 any thought of shame, which would preclude its being asked 
 for. For a few years the stigma of taking a pauper's allow- 
 ance would attach to the dole ; but this would soon wear off, 
 and pride would not be wounded by the assertion of a pur- 
 chased right. But any saving thus obtained — and it would, 
 after all, be a very considerable one — would probably be 
 counterbalanced by the extra numbers who would be found 
 amongst the very class for whose wants the fund was 
 founded to make provision. The tables of sickness on which 
 the calculations have been made are derived from the ex- 
 perience of clubs and friendly societies in actual exis- 
 tence, and all of these require proof of good health on en- 
 trance. No such barrier could be opposed to joining the 
 National Club. The constitutionally weak and the perma- 
 nently disabled would be just the class — so far as they pos- 
 sessed the means — who would be but too ready to join. In 
 multitudes of cases the parent would have to provide the 
 money for the son, and it is not for a moment to be ex- 
 pected that he would omit paying for the disabled ones — nor
 
 "national insurance." 333 
 
 could tboy with any justice be excluded. Even those who 
 were seriously ill would but be too ready if within their 
 power, to pay a sum wliich it would take but six or nine 
 months' illness to return to them, and the rich man who 
 paid without any reasonable chance of having to accept the 
 benefit, would at once demand that the weak and sickly 
 should be those to partake of it in his stead. Neither is it 
 likely that any Government inspection could so effectually 
 guard against deception as the agency of existing societies 
 does. There is thus no reason to anticipate that the claims 
 would on the whole fall short of the calculated amount. 
 
 Nor is there any bettor reason to rely upon a permanent 
 gain from a higher rate of interest than 3 per cent. If 4 
 could bo obtained the difference would be immense, for in 
 the case we have supposed the annual income, instead of 
 being but just enough to meet the sick allowances, would 
 leave a surplus of some £20,000 a year for more than the 
 first twenty years, and of gradually lessening amounts for 
 ten or twelve moi'C — so that the survivors at the ages of 
 seventy would find more than enough to provide their pen- 
 sions. It is, however, far more probable that the fund would 
 fail to obtain investments so high as three, than that they 
 would be found at four or higher. It is quite clear that any 
 national club or fund must be guaranteed by Government, 
 and therefore that no securities should be taken but such 
 as are absolutely certain. Pnvate persons or bodies, and 
 public also may, without undue risk, make loans on various 
 descriptions of property and receive higher rates ; but the 
 very fact that these rates are given when Government can 
 obtain loans at very little more than three, is an evidence 
 that the security is not so perfect ; for whenever any invest- 
 ments approaching to the secui-ity of those of the Govern- 
 ment are offered — such, for instance, as that of the Public 
 Works Board — the money is obtainable at 3| or little more. 
 When so largo a lender as the National Club would be, 
 came into the market, it would hclj) to keep down the inte- 
 rest obtainable. In fact it would be impracticable for Go-
 
 334 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 vcmracnt to bo largoly borrowing and lending at different 
 rates, and in practice it would como to this, that no higher 
 interest could be obtained than Consols or the other Go- 
 vernment Stocks would yield. The result would be as it 
 is with the Savings^ Banks — the insurance funds would go 
 towards absorbing the National Debt — thus helping to keep 
 the interest down, and ultimately enabling the Chancellor of 
 the Exchequer to force upon the nation^s creditors the ac- 
 ceptance of even lower interest than 3 per cent. 
 
 The calculations in the foregoing table are not put for- 
 ward with any pretensions to the close accuracy that would 
 govern actuarial figures, for which indeed there is not yet 
 sufficient data to base them upon, and the estimate of sick- 
 ness from the age of fifty-five upwards, rests upon an 
 assumption that the progressive increase would be in the 
 same ratio in the later years as the previous ones, which 
 is probably below the truth rather than above it. It is 
 convenient also in considering the progress of the fund, 
 to capitalize the payments after seventy, at the rate for 
 which the requisite annuities may be purchased through 
 the Post Office Savings' Bank, rather than to carry on the 
 calculation to the extreme limit of life. We thus, in the 
 fifty-first year of its duration, arrive at that stage in the 
 history of the fund when all who first became contributors 
 to it, will have passed off, and there will be a regular 
 sequence of new members coming on and old ones passing 
 away ; and were the number of the population to remain 
 stationary, it would stand thus: — 
 
 Provision against sickness would be made for 5,818,154, 
 being the whole of the male population of England and 
 .Wales who had completed their nineteenth year and not 
 passed beyond their seventieth ; the estimated incapacity in 
 each year being 9" 3 millions of weeks, for which the allow- 
 ance of 8^. per week would constitute a yearly amount of 
 £3'72 millions: to this must be added £2*71 for the pur- 
 chase of annuities of 4s. per week for those exceeding 
 seventy years, together requiring that the fund should
 
 "national insurance." 335 
 
 have an income of £6*43 millions of money. Towards this 
 the payment of new contributors would produce £2'0G, 
 and for the remainder reliance must be placed on the inte- 
 rest from the accumulations of previous years. This, how- 
 ever, would only meet the wants of the English and Welsh 
 male population, numbering 11 '09 million persons. That of 
 Scotland, being 1'58, and of Ireland 2*G4, a provision for these 
 at the same rates would require £2"45 annually, of which 
 the contributors coming into the fund would supply £"78. 
 If then to these we add fifty per cent, for the females, 
 who being engaged in occupations and earning wages, cannot 
 on any principle of right be treated otherwise than the 
 males ; we shall have a total annual charge amounting to 
 £13'32 millions of money, and a receipt from the young 
 persons under compulsion to pay, of £4'2G, leaving some 
 nine millions to be provided from the investment of pre- 
 vious accumulations. That is, supposing compulsion to 
 have been applied to all the young men and one-half the 
 young women of the United Kingdom, and thus all so pay- 
 ing to have acquired a right to relief in sickness and old 
 age to the extent proposed — nothing short of an accumu- 
 lated fund of £300,000,000, if interest be reckoned at 3 per 
 cent., would be a sufficient security for the due payment of 
 these allowances. If the money could be invested at 4 per 
 cent., 225 millions would suffice; but should only 2 J, per 
 cent, be obtainable, 360 millions would be requisite. We 
 thus see somewhat of the gigantic proportions of the ques- 
 tion with which we liave to deal. An accumulated fund of 
 from two to four hundred millions, created and maintained 
 by an enforced levy on the wages earned by the youths 
 between seventeen and twenty-one years of age, to the ex- 
 tent of five if not six or seven millions annually, and 
 furnishing the means for dispensing weekly allowances in 
 the aggregate amounting to thirteen millions in each year. 
 In this estimate it is assumed that the population would 
 remain stationary in numbers, whereas it is evidently in- 
 creasing ; if it continued to grow as at present, at the end
 
 336 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 of fifty years it would be doubled or trebled, and the 
 £13,000,000 would be at least £30,000,000, or more. 
 
 It is obvious that such a fund could only be administered 
 by the Government of the country, not solely because of its 
 magnitude, but also from the impossibility of granting com- 
 pulsory contributions without State guarantee ; or the pay- 
 ment of allowances being thus secured, excepting under State 
 control. The responsibility of conducting all the operations 
 of receipt, investment, and payment, whether through the 
 Post Office, the Local Government Board, the National 
 Debt Commissioners, or a special department to be formed 
 for the purpose, would exceed that of any existing Depart- 
 ment, aad necessarily involve a large expenditure ; for 
 though it might not be difficult to arrange for collecting 
 the receipts, the organization for distributing the grants 
 would be far more intricate than the present Poor Law 
 arrangements. It is true that in the first commencement a 
 limited number of transactions would have to take place, 
 and that they would only grow by slow degrees, thus 
 affording time to perfect plans and develope the requisite 
 machinery; but the extent to which that growth would ulti- 
 mately reach must not be lost sight of in considering the 
 practicability of the scheme, or determining the course to be 
 taken in the institution of its working. A real difficulty 
 arises at the very commencement in providing such an 
 instrumentality as may be capable of gradual but certain 
 expansion through the years to elapse before its arrival at 
 full maturity. 
 
 But a much graver difficulty will be found in providing 
 any investment for the monies received other than in the 
 Public Stocks (Consols or 3 per Cents), and this is one on 
 the overcoming of which, it depends how much must be con- 
 tributed by each insurer. Mr. BLackley supposes that 4 
 per cent, will be easily procured, and on this supposition 
 bases his estimate that £10 per head will be sufficient, or 
 even more than enough. If this be so, and the total allow- 
 ances should be as the previous calculations show, there is
 
 "national insurance." 337 
 
 no doubt that this opinion is correct, but if only 3 per cent, 
 bo obtained, £15 or even more, would certainly be required. 
 Private insurance offices may often be enabled to place 
 their monies at 4 per cent., and public bodies borrowing 
 for buildings or drainage works, have frequently to give as 
 much, but not for very large sums. The Board of Works 
 is able to borrow at S^ per cent., and most of the money so 
 borrowed is invested by insurance and other offices. It 
 will not therefore be safe to calculate or expect that the 
 National Insurance funds could bo put out so as to yield 
 more than 3 per cent., and the result would be that as 
 ■wnth the savings' bank monies, they would have to bo 
 absorbed in the reduction of the National Debt, and thus 
 yield only a trifle beyond the lower rate of interest. Nor 
 is it likely that even this would be maintained : there aro 
 already symptoms that the holders of Consols will ere long 
 have to accept, it may be as little as 2^ per cent., and the 
 diminution of this stock offering for actual sale in tho 
 market, would tend to raise the price, and thus facilitate 
 the conversion of tho 3 per Cents, into a lower paying stock. 
 Were the saving thus effected applied from time to time, 
 in addition to that shortly to arise from the falling in of 
 terminable annuities, together with tho provision already 
 made for a sinking fund, a perceptible decrease in tho 
 National Debt would be going on. Thus by the time that 
 National Insurance came fully into play, or even long 
 before the term of fifty years was completed, it might happen 
 that the whole of the National Debt would come to be hold 
 on this account. Already trustees, both public and private, 
 experience tho greatest difficulty in finding safe securities 
 that will yield more than Consols. It is this which helps 
 to drive the price for purchase up so high, and with so 
 much more money to be thus invested, this upward move- 
 ment Avill be greatly accelerated. It is the absence of higher 
 paying securities on which implicit reliance can be placed, 
 that leads to the introduction of so many unstable projects 
 and causes so much loss to unwary investors. A curious
 
 338 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 state of things would result should successive decreases of 
 the National Debt, and successive increases of the National 
 Insurance Fund bring the two to the same level. The 
 State would then be debtor in one capacity and creditor in 
 another, and the simple course would be to abolish the 
 fiction of both separate funds, and transfer the charges 
 on the Insurance Fund, present and prospective, to the same 
 category as that for the interest of the National Debt, 
 namely, the general revenue of the country provided for by 
 taxation in one shape or another. We should thus be 
 establishing another kind of poor relief of far larger extent 
 than that at present aflForded, inasmuch as the proposed 
 allowances would exceed the grants at present given ; and 
 the recipients would not as now be paupers, but actual 
 creditors of the State, having purchased by specific pay- 
 ments in early life, specific grants for sickness and old 
 
 Two fallacies appear to underlie the calculations, or it 
 may rather be said the expectations upon which the scheme 
 of National Insurance is based. First, an undue reliance 
 upon the power for accumulation of compound interest. 
 This is only true as regards that portion of the contributions 
 to the fund which go to provide for old ag-e ; but as the 
 figures in the table show, the claims on account of sickness 
 will at once commence to accrue, and probably swallow up 
 the whole of the interest intended to be re-invested. The 
 fund thus would not grow with anything like the rapidity 
 anticipated, unless the primary contributions were fixed at 
 a higher rate. Secondly, it is forgotten that money has no 
 power of increase apart from judicious employment in con- 
 junction with labour, either that which is put forth in 
 agricultural or manufacturing occupations, or saved, as 
 when public works, such as docks, bridges, &c., render it 
 advantageous to those by whom these are used to pay some 
 portion of their earnings as an equivalent for the labour 
 they would otherwise have to bestow. Such opportunities 
 are limited in number and extent, and therefore there is a
 
 "national insurance." 339 
 
 limited field for the appropriation of the funds proposed to 
 bo raised. 
 
 A question far too wido and deep to be treated within 
 the limits of this paper is here opened up — namely, tho 
 expediency of thus divorcing capital from tho labour which 
 alone can cause it to fructify, and the encouragement of 
 those who possess money in trusting its employment to 
 others, and spending their own lives in expending tho in- 
 terest they receive for its use. The policy of tying up so much 
 money in settlements, loans, and employments unconnected 
 with its owners, is clearly not one of unmixed good, and it 
 may fairly be debated whether in this country we have 
 not already gone too far in this direction. The nation is 
 divided into two classes of debtors and creditors, producers 
 and non-producers, to a degree which may perhaps very 
 soon prove to be fatal to its continued prosperity. But 
 this theme must not now be farther pursued, although there 
 is in it enough of importance to awake anxious thought and 
 prompt to careful inquiry. 
 
 Again, taking into consideration tho magnitude and 
 duration of the engagements into which it is proposed to 
 enter, it is scarcely consistent with sound economical prin- 
 ciples to make contracts of this nature to bind our succes- 
 sors in future and distant years. Whenever money is now 
 lent by the State, or borrowed under its sanction, for tho 
 promotion of public works, it is usually arranged that tho 
 loan shall expire by tho repayment of both principal and 
 interest within thirty years. The National Club, were it 
 established to-day, would become bound for twice that 
 period, by receiving money now, the whole of which would 
 not be repaid till every life now under nineteen had ex- 
 pired ; and its solvency would depend upcm the saiiio 
 rates of interest and other conditions existing unchanged 
 throuirhout the whole intervening time. It is true that this 
 is already done wlienever a Government deferred annuity 
 is sold; but such transactions are so limited in number and 
 amount, as to render it impossible for serious inconvenience
 
 310 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 to ariso, whereas those would within twenty years embrace 
 two-thirds of our population. Nor are the circumstances 
 analogous to those which occur when new Stocks, Consols, 
 or Tliree per Cents, are issued. Then what in effect takes 
 place is the creation of a rent-charge upon the freehold and 
 other property of the kingdom, to the extent of £3 per 
 annum for every £100 of stock. It is called a perpetual 
 annuity, but can at any moment be cancelled by the pay- 
 ment of the principal ; whereas in national insurance no 
 power can be given to terminate the contract save by the 
 decease of the individual contributor. The object in view 
 is to prevent his becoming a pauper, and while life lasts, 
 the State, which has taken payment, must be bound to pro- 
 vide for his incapacity from sickness or old age. Yet even 
 then there is no security that the object sought will with 
 certainty be attained ; for who shall say whether half or 
 three-quarters of a century hence, the specified sums of 8s. 
 and 4s. a week will meet the necessities of the case ? AVith 
 the rapid changes going on in the value of money and in 
 our social condition, these sums may be wholly insufficient 
 or vastly too much. Money is now abundant at three per 
 cent., it may then be scarce at double or treble that amount, 
 or not be loanable at a half or third of that rate. 
 
 On all these and many other grounds which might be 
 specified, the financial aspect of the scheme is scarcely such 
 as to commend it to the sober sense of statesmen. 
 
 Thus far we have been considering the matter as affect- 
 ing the interests and the prospects of the State ; let us see 
 whether its features are more attractive to the individuals 
 whom it is proposed to subject to compulsion. Every such 
 scheme must necessarily have two sides — the one joossessed 
 of advantages, the other the reverse. In this one all the 
 disadvantages would appear to fall on the thrifty, and its 
 chief value to be to the thriftless. This is assumed at the 
 very outset : it su])poses that the contributors are disinclined 
 to save, for if the disposition existed — always supposing that 
 the benefits to bo received are not more than the enforced
 
 "national insurance." 341 
 
 contribution will fairly purchase — the man who can and will 
 restrict hia expenditure, has other openings for the invest- 
 ment of his savings. A policy of insurance or a deferred 
 annuity he can already purchase through the Post Office on 
 as fovourable terms as the fund could safely grant him, 
 whilst for sickness the £10 or £15 which it is proposed to 
 take from him, would, if deposited in the Savings' Bank, 
 serve as a fund on which to draw during incapacity to earn 
 wages ; which in the case of the healthy and the prudent, 
 who, because they are so, suffer less than the average 
 amount of illness, would rarely be exhausted before by 
 restoration to health the power to replenish it was regained. 
 Besides this, there are sound and well conducted sick funds 
 springing into existence — there is no reason why there 
 should not be more — whose terms are better suited to his 
 circumstances than those of the National Club, adapted as 
 they must bo for the imprudent and the fraudulent, could 
 possibly be. One great disadvantage amongst the many 
 that might be mentioned, would be that the man who wished 
 to emigrate could not carry mth him to his adopted country 
 the rights and privileges of the fund, secured to him whilst 
 remaining at homo. With our ever-increasing population 
 and declining or stationaiy production, it must be the lot 
 of many to seek employment abroad : numbers of our young 
 people aro saving up their earnings with this in view, and 
 it would be cruel to drag from them the product of their 
 self-denial and industry to preserve them from becoming 
 paupers in a land they never intend to inhabit permanently. 
 Again, to the man (or woman) who is striving to improve 
 his position, it is all important that his earnings should not 
 1)0 taken from him. The true incentive to thrift is tlio 
 power which money gives to render labour valuable. Tools 
 with which to work ; materials for manufacture, goods for 
 sale, houses to live in, or land to cultivate, nay, even appli- 
 ances tor health and coTufort, or means for the accpiisition 
 of knowledge, are all of infinitely more pecuniary value to 
 the wise and the prudent than the paltry 21 or ;J per cent,, 
 
 z 2
 
 342 THE FINANCE OF 
 
 whicla is all that the borrowing State can afford to give 
 him. It cannot be too strongly impressed upon our youth 
 of both sexes and of all classes, that in the use of capital, 
 in conjunction with physical or mental power rightly em- 
 ployed, lies the secret of success in life, of that advance- 
 ment which should be to all a lawful and laudable object of 
 desire. Once more, the proposed compulsory investment 
 would fall with peculiar hardship on students, apprentices, 
 tor hose who are working without earning, in prospect of 
 future returns for their labour. How many parents are 
 there, petty tradesmen or small mechanics, to say nothing 
 of clergymen, professional men, government servants, clerks, 
 and others of small means and large families, whose sons, 
 and daughters too, need every penny that can be saved for 
 their maintenance and education or training, to whom the 
 abstraction of the £30, £50, or £100 would prove abso- 
 lutely destructive. From how many homes like these 
 would the wail of despair, if not curses loud and deep, arise, 
 let those say who witness the hard struggles of suffering 
 poverty. 
 
 But the chief weakness of the scheme lies in the fact that 
 the reckless and improvident will participate in its advan- 
 tages to the detriment of the industrious and careful. So 
 far as it will operate in restraint of extravagant expenditure, 
 enforce the laying by of something for the future, absorb 
 the earnings which otherwise might be spent in folly and 
 dissipation, and thus compel to the exercise of self-denial 
 during the earlier years of life, its value would be great ; 
 but in the removal of incentive to exertion afterwards, and 
 the security it would afford of subsistence during illness, 
 although the result of misconduct, its effect must be pre- 
 judicial. To the dissolute, the amount of sick allowance 
 would often be an inducement to magnify ailments and 
 feign incapacity for labour, whilst to the right-minded it 
 would be so small as to induce every effort to avoid the 
 sacrifice of earnings by declaring on the fund. "Whatever 
 sum may be fixed upon as the contribution to be exacted.
 
 "national insurance." 343 
 
 it must he that which experience shows to be sufficient to 
 provide the sick and aged allowances. The reckless class 
 would by their claims upon it, both increase the average 
 and absorb the greater share — thus compelling the honest 
 ones to contribute more than would cover their own average, 
 whilst they would actually receive less. It is no answer to 
 this to say that the present effect of our Poor Law is to 
 support or give relief to the undeserving out of funds pro- 
 vided by the deserving. So long as the administration of 
 relief, whether in or out of doors, is vigilantly watched, and 
 granted only as a matter of necessity, much may bo done 
 to check idleness and fraud ; when the allowance can be 
 claimed as a right, no amount of care in dispensing it will 
 altogether prevent a considerable amount of malingering, or 
 prevent its bestowal on those whose only title to claim it 
 arises out of their own improvidence. This danger or 
 difficulty is inseparable from the condition of a payment 
 once for all, whereas the periodical subscription to a 
 friendly society or sick club, brings the conduct of the 
 members under review, and those who are unworthy of its 
 benefits are constantly losing their rights by inability or 
 unwillingness to keep up their payments. Yet it is doubt- 
 ful whether, on the whole, oven the unworthy class would 
 really be benefited by such a fund. The ease with which 
 they could shuffle through seasons of incapacity would have 
 a demoralizing influence, probabl}' leading to such further loss 
 of time and health as to more than counterbalance the value 
 of their actual receipts, and this, in addition to the moral 
 evil produced, would in fact be fiuiincially injurious. 
 
 It is with no desire to find fault with a plan suggestive 
 of so much good, that this criticism has been undertaken. 
 The evils it proposes to remove are so deep-seated, and so 
 detrimental to our national prosperity, that any mode of 
 satisfactorily dealing -svith them would be liailed -w-ith joy 
 by philanthropists and statesmen of every class or jiarty. 
 Neither is there any reason to regret that it has received so 
 large a share of public attention, for it may stimulate many
 
 ,'>44 THE FINANCE OF " NATIONAL INSURANCE." 
 
 to voluutary efforts for tbcir own provision, to learn the 
 channels through which they may be made, and the value of 
 early economy for the purpose of judicious investment. It 
 may encourage a spirit of self-reliance, and go far to 
 determine the course of life of many by showing them the 
 money-value of small savings, -and the ease with which those 
 who have the will may likewise find the way to secure them- 
 selves against the worst trials of incapacity for labour when 
 sick, or entire dependence upon others in old age. The 
 author of the plan has done good service by evoking dis- 
 cussion, and is to be applauded for his earnest efforts to 
 carry it into practice, although he may have failed to 
 demonstrate its financial soundness, or that it is otherwise 
 capable of being adopted. Yet if the figures now produced 
 are correct and the reasoning based upon them be sound, it 
 will be a national evil to waste further time or exhaust further 
 philanthropic effort in endeavouring to procure legislative 
 sanction for a measure which, when treated in all its bear- 
 ings, and traced through all its probable results, must be 
 financially unsatisfactory alike for the thoughtless, the 
 thrifty, and the State. 
 
 P.S. Should the scheme be made to embrace all of both 
 sexes, as was assumed in a discussion at the Church Congress 
 held at Leicester since the foregoing was in type, the annual 
 charge on the fund would be more than proportionately in- 
 creased on account of the superior numbers and greater 
 tenacity of life in females at the later ages. This raises the 
 value of the annuities to be provided for at 70 by at least 
 30 per cent. The difficult question would also arise as to 
 provision for incapacity to work during the sickness inci- 
 dent to maternity, so that altogether the charge could not 
 be estimated at less than £20,000,000 instead of £13,000,000 
 per annum.
 
 I N L) E X 
 
 Accounts, official, alteration of system, 
 22 ; oxpeiiitt'd, 25, 29. 
 
 Aj^riiultiiral condition at home, 286. 
 
 Animal food, (niantities imported, 85. 
 
 Alcolidjic liijuids, increase in impor- 
 tation, 41. 
 
 Alcoholic rates on beer, 134 ; wine, 
 135. 
 
 Articles of export, 30 ; import, 36, 37. 
 
 Articles, principal, values of, 41. 
 
 Balance of trade, 55, 142; how to be 
 discharj^cd, 144 ; to be provided for, 
 144, 175. 
 
 Beer, alcoholic duty on, 134. 
 
 Beverages, articles used for, 88. 
 
 Bill of Entry, 26. 
 
 Bi-motallic tlieories, 227. 
 
 Blackley, Kev. W. (i., scheme for in- 
 surance, 32C ; to be commended for 
 advoiacy, 344. 
 
 Board of Trade prescribes nature of 
 returns, 28. 
 
 ]5ritish jmiducc exported, 43. 
 
 Bullion, imports and exports of, 05 ; 
 inilu<led with goods, 140 ; moving, 
 value of, 200. 
 
 Caird, J., value of agricultui'al pro- 
 duce, 'JO, 269, 270, 273. 
 
 Capital, increas^e in amounts invested, 
 50; ])roductive, and labour over- 
 weighted, 194; transferred to 
 Amerii-a, 184; too much divorced 
 from labour, 339. 
 
 Circuitous routes of transit, 35. 
 
 (•hanges reijuired in trade, 73. 
 
 Clearing House, statistics of, 206. 
 
 Coal-famine, elVect on prices, 243 ; for 
 use of steamers, 05. 
 
 Colonies, reipiire occupying, 297. 
 
 Colonization easy at this time, 130; 
 methods of, 297 : necessary for 
 
 mother country, 207 j two kinds, 
 289. 
 
 Colonists, our best customers, 289. 
 
 Connnerce, progress of, 35. 
 
 Commercial policy, advocates for re- 
 versal of, 248. 
 
 Committee of House of Commons on 
 Silver, 203. 
 
 Consols, fluctuations in, 217; gold — 
 value of, 210. 
 
 Cottons, variations in price, 239. 
 
 Countries with which trade is carrietl 
 on, 320. 
 
 Country of origin, imports, 9 ; des- 
 tination, e.xiKirt.s, 1 1. 
 
 Crises in trade periodic, 251. 
 
 Customs Benevolent Fund, 27. 
 
 Decay of export trade, 237, 247. 
 
 Dependence on foreign trade, 77. 
 
 Depreciation of siher, 2ii.J. 
 
 De|>ression of trade, lo8, 222 ; re- 
 medies for, 158. 
 
 Difference of import ande.xport valuo, 
 50. 
 
 Drink, cost of to nation, 101 ; imports 
 consumed in, 306. 
 
 Drinking conne<-ted with depressi'in, 
 301 ; destruction of food imjorts 
 caused by, 306. 
 
 Duties on Wine, 133. 
 
 Economy forced upon us, 94. 
 
 E.\cess of imjMirts puzzling. l.SS. 
 
 '' E<-onomist,'' index numbers, 210; 
 
 rise and fall in prices, 20S ; tables, 
 
 imports and exp<.irts, 214. 
 Eggs and I'otatoes imfKirted, 87. 
 Emigration, extensive, necessary, 285, 
 
 290, 299. 
 Emigrants, classes disposed to become, 
 
 288, 298.
 
 346 
 
 INDEX. 
 
 Entries, importers', 8 ; do. percentage 
 of error, 25 ; imports, 25. 
 
 Evils, growing, how to be checked, 
 101. 
 
 Examiner's Office, 6 ; fusion with In- 
 spector-General, 25. 
 
 Exports, accounts of, 18, 40, 43 ; ba- 
 lance in favour of, 144; British manu- 
 factures, 2 ; comparison of prices, 
 242; diminution, 223, 261 ; excess 
 of, over imports, 322 ; probability 
 of increase, 149 ; goods from United 
 Kingdom, 1854-74, 53; proportion 
 of, to British and Foreign places, 
 41; relation of to imports, 1G2; 
 quantities of, 18 ; total value of, 39 ; 
 prices of, not enhanced, 322 ; trade, 
 importance of, 258 ; cost of, in- 
 creased by drinking, 307 ; increase 
 for new year to July 30, 1881, 317 ; 
 low price of previous years, 322. 
 
 Expansion of fond purchases, 46. 
 
 Expenditure diminished, 264. 
 
 Extent of foreign supplies of food, 103. 
 
 Extravagance of present age, 158. 
 
 Eall in prices imminent, 208. 
 
 Farr, Dr., on value of life, 280. 
 
 Finance of National Insurance, 326. 
 
 Financial relations to rest of world, 
 96. 
 
 Food, comparison of home with foreign, 
 89, 111 ; animal, 85 ; foreign supply 
 and home compared, 89, HI; eco- 
 nomy of, 265 ; foreign sources' of 
 supply, 109; gi-owing expenditure 
 for, increasing, 73 ; home produce 
 not sufficient, 268, 274 ; imports 
 of, 41, 46, 223; dependent largely 
 upon extraneous sources, 94 ; 
 home produce, imports, 46 ; insuf- 
 cient, 209 ; possibility of increasing, 
 46, 276 ; reduced to wheat standard, 
 93 ; different kinds from different 
 countries, 109; economy of, 291 ; 
 nature and extent of foreign, 103; 
 power of sustaining life, 269 ; 
 methods of supplying deficiency, 
 276, 279, 281 ; values of food im- 
 ports, 79; sources of supply, 105; 
 recent fluctuations in prices, 205 ; 
 waste of, 275. 
 
 Foreign trade, progress of, 31. 
 
 France, trade of, 178. 
 
 Freight and charges estimated, 63. 
 
 Funds of proposed National Club, 
 328. 
 
 Giffen, Mr., accumulation of capital, 
 
 205 ; fall in prices, 208 ; production 
 of gold and silver, 208 ; proportion 
 of gold to silver, 205 ; quantity and 
 value of goods, 235 ; value of food 
 imports, 272 ; value of pound, 234. 
 
 Gold, accession to stock, 222 ; appre- 
 ciation of, 247 ; connection of with 
 silver, 200 ; existing quantity, 203, 
 
 206 ; production of, 202 ; produc- 
 tion of, relation to state of trade, 
 202 ; purchasing power of, 201, 
 212; stock of in the world, 202; 
 sufficiency of supply, 206, 222 ; va- 
 riations in value, 201, 215, 217. 
 
 Goods, descriptions of, 12 ; in transit 
 to other countries, 10-11 ; difficulty 
 in ascertaining re-exported, 45 ; 
 imports and exports, 1854-74,53, 57 ; 
 exportation of, 54 ; quantities of, 
 13; values of, 15-16. 
 
 Grain converted into beer and spirits, 
 81, 275, 306. 
 
 Growth of pojjulation, 115. 
 
 Hay, Su* Hector, estimates of precious 
 metals, 202, 216. 
 
 Harvest, deficient, cause of better im- 
 port trade, 324. 
 
 Hendrik's proposal for gold rupee, 
 230. 
 
 Imports and exports, 31. 
 
 alterations in relative values, 61, 
 
 63, 64. 
 
 countries of origin, 9. 
 
 exceed exports in in(!reasing 
 
 ratio, 322. 
 
 excess of in twenty years, 66, 
 
 139, 313, 317. 
 
 corrections of excess in, 65. 
 
 of food, 42, 77. 
 
 textile materials, 317. 
 
 increase of recently, 317. 
 
 official sources of information. 7. 
 
 preponderance of, in rec-ent years, 
 
 69. 
 
 probability of diminishing, 153. 
 
 quantities of, 18, 45. 
 
 do. inci'eased by drinking, 302. 
 
 from different countries, 32. 
 
 total value of, 38, 79, 84. 
 
 • true relations to exports, 162. 
 
 when excess of satisfactory, 167. 
 
 Income accruing abroad, 144 ; tax as 
 
 test of income, 150. 
 Increasing dependence for food, 76.
 
 INDEX. 
 
 347 
 
 Indebtedness of other countries to 
 
 United Kingdom, 67. 
 Index nniiibers of prites, 208, 210, 
 
 211,212. 
 Index numbers of prices in country of 
 
 production, 211. 
 India, priios of goods in, not risen, 
 224. 
 
 suffers from depreciated silver, 
 
 22"). 
 
 ■ imports and exports, 22G. 
 
 Inflation of 1871-73 notabiut to re- 
 turn, .'^25. 
 
 Inspector-General of Imports and Ex- 
 ports, 6. 
 
 Interest, rate of, .333. 
 
 Investments, amount of, 67. 
 
 Iron, price of affect e<l by coal, 243. 
 
 Island, supposed new one, 286. 
 
 Jevons, I'rofessor, rise in prices, 208, 
 210. 
 
 Labour as source of wealth, 292. 
 Luml should have refuse returned, 
 
 278. 
 Life increa.ses more rapidly in colo- 
 nies, 2'.)4. 
 
 true source of wealth, 292. 
 
 value of, 198, 280, 293. 
 
 Malthus, theories of population, 114. 
 Merchandise, moving, value of, 206. 
 Methods for collecting statistics, 5. 
 Metals, imported value of, 43. 
 Minister for Colonies most important, 
 
 :W). 
 Mother country, responsibility of, to 
 
 colonies, 295, 299. 
 
 Nature and extent of official returns, 
 28. 
 
 Nature and extent of fond supplies, 
 lo.t. 
 
 Kati'iM passing through crisis, 1.t7. 
 
 National Cliilt, firination of, 327. 
 
 National Insurani c, jjrovision forsick- 
 ncss. .''.27 ; provision at death, ."127 ; 
 advantage of to improvidi'ut, .'HO; 
 nniounl of contributions to, 330; 
 compulsory payment to, 327 ; con- 
 trary to sound economics, 3.19 ; fal- 
 lacies of, 338 ; tinanceof, 321>; finan- 
 cial asiK'ct iii't conunended, .■}44 ; 
 funds, investment of, .340; must bo 
 numiiged i)y Uovernment, .3.36 ; not 
 
 advantageous for thrifty, 340; 
 weakness of scheme, 342. 
 Newmarch on produition of gold, SiC, 
 202. 
 
 Official trade and navigation statis- 
 tics, 1. 
 
 Pension after .seventy, cost of, 331 . .344. 
 
 Playfair, Dr. Lyon, estimate of food, 
 92. 
 
 Population of United Kingdom classi- 
 fied, 116; employed in agriculture, 
 &c., 121, 122; evils of over, not to 
 be lessened by restraint, 127 ; growth 
 of, 115; numbers of in 1871, 115, 
 267 ; sufticient subsistence for, 123, 
 131 ; source of strength, 131 ; sup- 
 ported on home and foreign food, 
 155. 
 
 Potatoes imported, 87. 
 
 I'ound, sterling value of, 201, 234. 
 
 Precious metals, consumption in tho 
 arts, 202 ; production of in relation 
 to trade, 202. 
 
 Preponderance of imports over ex- 
 ports, 55, 69. 
 
 Prices, ri.se and fall of, 202 ; correc- 
 tions in, 243 ; index numbers of, 
 208, 210, 211, 212. 
 
 Production, curtailment of, 192; and 
 (juantity of precious metals, 202. 
 
 Productive labour overweighted, 194 ; 
 use of, 198. 
 
 Productive power source of wealth, 
 292. 
 
 Progress of foreign trade for twenty 
 years, 31. 
 
 Pro.sperity led to wast*^-, 275. 
 
 Protection, return to, undesirable, 157, 
 190. 
 
 Publications, official, sUtistical de- 
 partment responsible for, 21. 
 
 Quantities of imports, 17 ; exports, 18. 
 
 Hathbone, Mr., letter to " Economist," 
 
 138, 147. 
 ]?aw materials, 42, 48. 
 KeciprtK'ity desired by some, 157, 189, 
 
 248. 
 Records and Publications, 20. 
 Kelat ion of imports to ex|>orts, 58, 162. 
 Hctrenchment necessary, 30.3. 
 Revival of trade, recent, 307 ; owing 
 
 to bad harvest, .324. 
 HuHsia, trade of, 177.
 
 348 
 
 INDEX. 
 
 Seyd, E., estimate of stocks of gold j 
 and silver, 203, 218; estimates of 
 indebtedness of United Kingdom, 
 67 ; proposition for Indian coinage, 
 2;J0. 
 
 Sick allowance, cost of, 331. 
 
 yitkness, average duration of, 330; 
 extent of provision for, 334. 
 
 Sil\er-(|uestion, phases of, 199 ; reca- 
 pitulation, 232 ; connection of with 
 gold, 200; demonetization of, 221, 
 224 ; depreciation of, 217, 232 ; de- 
 preciation of insufficiently accounted 
 for, 221 ; existing supply needed, 
 233; gold-value of, 217; prices of, 
 200, 218; production of, 202, 217, 
 220 ; sale of German, 221 ; stan- 
 dard, wisdom of, 231. 
 
 Smith, Col. F., coinage of standard 
 rupees, 230. 
 
 Social aspect of trade depression, 
 250. 
 
 revolution impending, 260, 265. 
 
 Soil, failure of, to produce food, 280. 
 
 Specifications for goods exported, 19. 
 
 Spirits, alcoholic, duty on, 135. 
 
 Statistical department of Customs, 6, 
 28 ; fusion with Examiner's, 25, 29 ; 
 responsible for records, 2, 33. 
 
 Statistics, official, mode of collecting, 
 5 ; system of collection altei-ed, 22 ; 
 classified imports and exports, 71. 
 
 Sugar, &c., converted into spirits, 81. 
 
 Tables, coiTection of, for excess im- 
 ports, 65 ; countries from which 
 food obtained, 107; etsimated pro- 
 duction of silver, 218 ; exports to 
 diftei-ent countries, 204 ; exports, 
 value in quantity and price, 241 ; 
 food in wheat equivalents, 273 ; food 
 imports, 1857-1879, 65, 272 ; gold- 
 prices of articles, 214; grain con- 
 verted into beer and spirits, 81 ; 
 home-raised wheat and meat, 91 ; 
 home and foreign produce, 270, 
 271 ; imports classified, 71 ; imports 
 for beverage, 88 ; imports and ex- 
 ports, 1699-1815, 170; 1816-53,57; 
 1816-79, 174; 1854-74, 53, 54; 
 1854-79, 60 ; 1877-79, 215 ; imports 
 and exports, France, 177 ; Russia, 
 178; United States, 180; imports, 
 in excess, 65 ; home and foreign 
 produce, 270, 271 ; live stock, 1867- 
 73, 46 ; pr'ncipal articles of food, 
 
 84-271 ; moving gold bullion and 
 merchandise, 204, 206 ; im[)ort<jrs' 
 entries and actual (juantities, 25 ; 
 index numbers of prices, 210, 211 ; 
 National Club Fund, 329 ; Tran- 
 shipments, 1854-79, 37 ; values of 
 exports to foreign and British pos- 
 sessions, 321; food imports, Giffen, 
 272 ; imports and exports, July, 
 1880; specified artii^les, 245. 
 Temperance cause, present time favour- 
 able for effort in, 304. 
 Textile fabrics, value of, 42. 
 Tobacco imported, 89. 
 Thompson, H., weight of meat gi'own, 
 
 91. 
 Trade, decay of export, 237, 247 ; de- 
 pression of, 222, 247 ; proportion of 
 with principal countries, 35 ; sr>cial 
 aspect of, 250 ; earlier periods of, 
 1816-53, 55, 163, 1854-79, 61 ; and 
 navigation statistics, official, 1; 
 origin of, 252 ; progress of foreign, 
 31 ; prosperity of.greatest elevation, 
 255 ; recent revival in, 311 ; owing 
 to bad harvests, 324. 
 Transhipments, value of, 37. 
 
 Union, Federal, of British Empire, 
 
 299. 
 United States, paying off her debts, 
 
 185; supplies of food from, 109; 
 
 recent activity in trade, 311 ; trade 
 
 of, 180 ; with United Kingdom, 
 
 182. 
 
 Value, mode of giving imports and 
 ejJports, 143 ; agricultural produce, 
 90; alcoholic beverages, 100; pound 
 sterling, 201 ; total of foreign food, 
 112. 
 
 Values of goods, declared substituted 
 for computed, 25 ; alterations in, 61, 
 282; official, 17, 33; official and 
 real contrasted, 33 ; principal ar- 
 ticles, 41 ; real, 33 ; revised esti- 
 mate, 282. 
 
 Variations in prices, 47. 
 
 Vegetable productions imported, 84. 
 
 TVatson, Dr. Forbes, iron material 
 
 worked up, 103. 
 Wealth, general diffusion of, 257. 
 Wheat and meat, increase in, 91 ; home 
 
 compared with foreign, 91. 
 Wine, duties on, 133.
 
 N'.RK SlKKiT, t'CiVliNI CiAKDhW,, 
 ■iliguit, 1876, 
 
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 it will be in a hurry to put it down, for it is a book of uncommon fascination. 
 The storj- is good, the principles inculcated admirable, and some of the illustra- 
 tions simply delicious.'-- yfj/j/j Bull. 
 
 LOB-LI E-BY-THE-FI RE; or, the Luck of Liiigborough. 
 -\nd other 'J";iles. Illustrated by GEORGE Cruiksh.\nk. and 
 Edition. Imp. ibnio. y. 
 
 ' A charming tale by another of those clever writers, thanks to whom the 
 children are now really belter served than their neighbours.' — Spectator . 
 
 ' Mrs. Ewing has written as good a story as her " Brownies," and that i« 
 saying a great deal. " Lob-lie-by-the-fire " has humour and pathos, and teaches 
 what is right withoiu making children think they are reading a sermon.' — 
 Snijf^riay Rci'inv. 
 
 SIX TO SIXTEEN: A Story for Girls. With lO Illus 
 trations by Mrs. Allingham. and Edition. Small post 8vo. 5^. 
 
 ' The homely good sense and humour of the bulk of the story are set off by 
 the pathos of its opening and its close, and a soft and beautiful light, as of daw-n 
 and sunset, is thrown round the substantial English ideal of what a girl's 
 eilucation ought to be, which runs through the tale.' — Spectator. 
 
 ' It is a beautifully told story, full of humour and pathos, and bright sketches 
 of scenery and character. It is all told with great naturalness, and will amuse 
 grown-up people quite as much as children. In reading the story, we have been 
 struck especially by characteristic bits of description, which show very happily 
 the writer's appreciation of child life.' — Pall Mall Ca-M'tte. 
 
 'We have rarely met, on such a modest scale, with characters so ably and 
 simply drawn . . . The merits of the volume, in themselves not small, are 
 much enhanced by some clever illustrations from the pencil of Mrs. Allingham.' — 
 AthtHaunt. 
 
 'The tone of the book is plea.sanl and healthy, and singularly free from that 
 sentimental, not to say "' mawkish,'' slain which is apt to disfigure such pro- 
 ductions. The illustrations by Mrs. .\llingh:im add a special attraction to the 
 little volume.' — Times. 
 
 ' It is scarcely necessary to say that Mrs. Fwing's book is one of the best of 
 the year.' — Saturday Review. 
 
 ' There is in it not only a great deal of common sense, hut there is true 
 humour. . . . Wc have not met a healthier or breezier tale for girls for a long 
 period.' — .'icadoiiy.
 
 Selected Worko. H 
 
 By AIn. Eu'ifix — Continued. 
 
 JAN OF THE WINDMILL; a story of the Plains. Will, 
 
 II llhistnitions by Hki i.\ \i i i\f;HAM. Crown 8vo. 8.>. 'S./. 
 
 /h' Mrs. ORcilly. 
 
 ' Mrs. O'Reilly's works need no commendation . . . the -lyle is si> ■j.ticxi. the 
 narrative so engrossing, and the lone so excellent.' — 7<»//// /!////. 
 
 LITTLE PRESCRIPTION, a,..] ..ther Tales With 6 
 Illustrations by W. H. Pkthekkk and otli<^rs. i6mo. 2s. M. 
 ' A worthy successor of some charming little volumes of the same kind. . . . 
 The tale from which the title is taken is for its grace and pathos an especial 
 favourite ' — Spectator. 
 
 ' Mrs. O'Reilly cmild not write otherwise than well, even if she were to try." 
 ■ Morning r^st. 
 
 CICELY'S CHOICE, a Story for Girls. With a Krontis- 
 picce by J. A. Pa.squier. Fcap. 8vo. gilt edges, y. bd. 
 
 ' A pleasant story. . . . It is a book for girls, and grown people will also enjoy 
 reading it.' — At/iftionim. 
 
 ' A pleasant, well-written, interesting story, likely to be acceptable to younf; 
 people who are in their teens.' — Scotsman. 
 
 GILES'S MINORITY; or, ScetK- at the Retl House. With 
 3 Illustrations, ibiiio. 2.f. 6(1. 
 
 DOLL WORLD; or, Play and Earnest. A Study from Real 
 Life. With 8 Illustrations. By C. A. Saltm.\ksh. i6mo. zj. 6</ 
 
 ' It is a capital child s book, and it has a charm for grown-up people also, a.s 
 the fairy ha7e of " long-ago " brightens every page. We are not ashamed to 
 confess to the " thrilling interest " with which we followed the hislorj- of 
 "Robertina" and ''MaWe.'" — Atlu-ntruni. 
 
 DEBORAH'S DRAWER. With 9 Illustrations. i6nio. 
 
 ■2S. Cd. 
 
 ' Any godmanima who wishes to buy an unusu.illy prctiy and aiiistically 
 written gift-book for an eight-year-old pet cannot do better thAn .spend a florin or 
 two on iTic contenis uf " Aunt Deborah's Dnwcr." ' —Athfintniii 
 
 DAISY'S COMPANIONS; or, Scenes from Child Life 
 A Story for Little Girls. With 8 Illustrations. i6nio. 2j. 6d. 
 ' If anybody wants a pretty little present for a pretty (and good) littl. 
 daughter, or a nie:e or grand-daughter, we cannot recommend a lietter or taxlii < 
 one than " Palsy's Companions." ' Timrt.
 
 22 George Bell and Sons' 
 
 Captain Mairyafs Books for Boys. 
 
 I'niforni rihistinted I'.dition, neatly bound in cloth, post 8vo. -y. 6c/. 
 each ; gilt edges, 4J. 6r/. 
 
 POOR JACK. With Sixteen II- IHK SF/rTL?:RS IN CANADA, 
 
 lustrations after Designs hy With Illustrations by Gll.Hi.KT 
 
 C^i.AKKSoN Sr.XN'FiF.r.n, R.A. and Dalzik.i,. 
 
 THE MISSION ; or, Scenes in TIIK PRIVATEER'S MAN. 
 
 .•\frica. With Illustrations by Adventures by Sea and Land in 
 
 lOHN Gilbert. Civil and .Savage Life, One 
 
 THE PIRATI-: AND THREE Hundred Years Ago. Illustrated 
 
 CUTTERS. Illustrated with with Eight Steel Engravings. 
 
 Twenty Steel Engravings from MASTERMAN READY ; or, the 
 
 Drawings by Ci-.'VRK.son Stan- Wreck of the Pacific. l'2mbel- 
 
 KIELD, R.A. With a Memoir lished with Ninety-three En- 
 
 of the Author. gravings on Wood. 
 
 A BOY'S LOCKER. A Smaller Edition of Captain 
 -Marryat's Books for Boys, in 12 vols. Fcap. 8vo. in a compact 
 
 cloth box. 2T.f. 
 
 By Hans Christian Andersen. 
 
 FAIRY TALES AND SKETCHES. Translated by c. 
 
 C. Peachf.v, H. ^\'.\.K1J, A. Ple.sner, tS;c. With 104 Illustration^ 
 
 by Otto Speckter and others. Crown 8vo. 6.r. 
 
 'The translation most happily hits the delicate quainlness of .\ndersen — 
 
 most happily transpo.ses into simple English words the tender precision of the 
 
 famous story-teller ; in a keen examination of the l)ook we scarcely recall a 
 
 single phrase or turn that oh\iously could have been bettered.' - Daily TeUgraph. 
 
 TALES FOR CHILDREN. With 48 Full-page illus- 
 trations by Wehneki, and 57 Small Engravings on Wood by 
 \\'. Thom.\.s. a new Edition. Cro%\ni 8vo. 6.f. 
 This and the above vohune form the most complete English Edition of 
 -Vndersen's Tales. 
 
 LATER TALES. Translated from the Danish by Augusta 
 Plesner and H. Ward. With Illustrations by Otto Specktkr, 
 W. Cooper, and other Artists. Cloth gilt, 3.?. '6d. 
 
 WON DER WORLD, a Collection of Fairy Tales, Old and 
 
 New. Translated from the French, German, and Danish. With 
 
 4 Coloured Illustrations and numerous Woodcuts by L. RiCHTEK. 
 
 Osc.\R Plet.sch, and others. Royal i6mo. cloth, giit edges, 3^'. bd. 
 
 ' It will delight the children, and has in it a wealth of wisdom that may be of 
 
 practical service when they have grown into men and women.' — Literary World.
 
 Selected Works. 23 
 
 GRIMM'S GAMMER GRETHEL; or, German Fain- 
 
 TaJes and Popular Stories. Translated by Kdgar Tavi.ok. 
 N'umerons Woodcuts after (i. ( 'iMtKsuANK's designs. Post 8vo. 
 
 y. (id. 
 
 LITTLE PLAYS FOR LITTLE PEOPLE; with 
 
 Hints for Drawing-room Performances. By .Mrs. Cui.sHOLM, 
 .Author of ' Rnnn, the Storv of .'• Frog.' ioiiik. with Illnsirations, 
 
 2.. 6,/. 
 
 ROBINSON CRUSOE. Wilh a 15i„yraphical Account u. 
 Df.kok. Illustrated with 70 Wood ICngravings, chiefl\- after Designs 
 by Hakvk.v ; and 12 I'.ngravings on Steel after Stothakd. Post 
 
 8vo. 5-. 
 
 KIRSTIN'S ADVENTURES. A .Stury of JuUai»d Life. 
 
 By the .Author of ' < ■asiniir the I.iltle li.xile,' &-c. With (Unstrations. 
 
 Crown 8vo. y. bt/. 
 ' There i> so much tnii; art :uid natural talent in the book that we are half 
 inclined to take il away from the lx)ys and girls for whom it is « ritten.' — Tiinn. 
 
 KATIE; or, the Sini])lc Heart. Hy D. Ricii.MoNn, .Author of 
 .\niiii' .Maitland.' Illustrated by M. I. H(MtTH. 2nd Kdition 
 Crown 8vo. y. dd. 
 ' The family life w hich surrounds Katie is both pretty and natural. The tone 
 is Kood, and the jiloi — wc speak I'rum experience- eng.iges a child'- interest with 
 almost loo keen a sympathy.' — (iiiirrdr'iiM. 
 
 QUEENS OF ENGLAND from the .\orman Con.jtiesl. 
 H\ A. SiKK Ki.\.si). .\n .Abridged lulilion. with I'ortraii ot 
 .\i. Hilda of I'landers. In 1 vol. crown 8vo. cloth, 6.r. (iti. 
 
 THE ENTERTAINING NATURALIST, lu m,-. 
 
 Lot DON. kevisrd and enlarged li.\ \V "- l>\M \-, IIS. Will, 
 nearly 500 Illustrations. Po.st 8vo. 5 . 
 
 INSECT ARCHITECTURE. HvRinnik Kdite^ibythe 
 
 Rev. |. (;, Wii.iii. Author ol • 1 loiiws NVithoiit Hands.' Post 8vo 
 w illi i)i-,irl\ 200 Illustrations. :;.. 
 
 GLIMPSES INTO PET-LAND. Uy the kcv. j. t.. 
 
 \V<iiii>, M.A., r.l...'>. With l-'ronlispii-ce. Fcap. y. 'j</. 
 
 FRIENDS IN FUR AND FEATHERS. By(;\vv.NKKv.N. 
 
 Illu'-U.ilid uith 8 lilll-p.igc iMigl.uMlg- 1)\ K. W. KKYI., &C. 
 3rd Fdition. llandsomel\ l«)und, 31. th/. 
 
 ' We have alre.idy characterised some other Imok xs the Ixisl raland-du^ 
 book of the season. Wc s.-»ii| so because we had not seen the present little Iwok. 
 which is deli>;h(nd. It is written on au aitislic principle, cuIl^isdn{; of actual 
 biographies of certain cleph.ints, squirrels, blackbirds, and ulial not, who lived ui 
 die flesh : and we only wish that human bioKrapbies \i.ir .il«;ivs .is rnirrlainin^ 
 and inslnutivc.' — Saturday Kf.'irM'.
 
 24 George Bell and Sotifi' Selected Works. 
 
 GUESSING STORIES; or, The' Burpri«\ig' Adventures 
 of the Mnn with the Extra Pair of Eyes. P.y the late Rev. P. Free- 
 man, M.A. 3rd Edition. 
 
 ANECDOTES OF DOGS. Hy Ki.waku Jessk. With 
 
 Illustrations. I'obi 8\(). cloth, -,.<■. With 34 Steel F'^ngravings 
 after Coopf.k, L-VNOSKER, &c. ys. bd. 
 
 NATURAL HISTORY OF SELBORNE. By 
 
 GiLBERi Whiii:. Edited by Jesse. Illustrated with 40 En- 
 gravings. Post 8vo. 5^. ; or, with the Plates Coloured, -js. 6d. 
 
 CHARADES, ENIGMAS, AND RIDDLES. Collected by 
 
 a Cantab. 5th Edition, enlarged. Illustrated. Fcap. 8vo. is. 
 
 POETRY- BOOK FOR SCHOOLS, illustrated with 
 
 37 highly finished Engravings by C. \V. Cope, R.A., Helmsley. 
 Palmer, Skill, Thomas, and H. Weik. 89th Thousand. 
 Crown 8vo. gilt, 2s. 6d. ; cloth limp, is. 
 
 GILES WITHERNE; or, the Reward of Disobedience. \ 
 Village Tale for the Young. By the Rev. ]. P. Parkixso.n, D.C.L. 
 6th Edition. Illustrated by the Rev. F."W. Mann. Super-royal 
 i6mo. IS. 
 
 THE PILGRIM'S PROGRESS. By John bunyan- 
 
 With 281 Engravings from Designs by ^\'ILLI.\M H.VRVEY. Post 
 8vo. 3.f. 6d. 
 
 OLD NURSERY RHYMES AND CHIMES. Collected 
 and arranged by a Peal of Bells. Fcap. 4to. Ornamental binding, 
 2J. 6(i. 
 
 NURSERY CAROLS. By the Rev. Dr. Monsell, Rector 
 of St. Nicholas, Guildford, with upwards of 100 Illustrations by 
 LuDWiG RiCHTER and Oscar Pletsch. Imp. i6mo. ^. 6<f. 
 ■ At once a poet and .1 child lover, full of fun and yet disposed gently to iiutil 
 
 what is good. Dr. Monsell is inimitable in this particular department.' -yij/tw 
 
 Bull. 
 
 LONDON : 
 
 GEORGE BELL & SONS, York Strekt. 
 
 Covent Garden.
 
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