3506 H3k The Commerce and Prospects of England E Garnet Man ;■/ -SIM saiidtins AMVMan "^^ oamiaa THE COMMERCE AND PROSPECTS ^ OF EXGLAND, AND A REVIEW OF THE Agricultural %u\\, and (rotti}n ^radc^j. BY E. GARNET MAN, OF THE MIDDLE TEMPLE, BABEISTER-AT-LAW, LATE GOVERNMENT ADVOCATE BBIIISll BaKMAH SPECIAL CORKESPOSDENT OF THE "TIMES" DCRISG THE PEBAK WAB, ANr> FELLOW OF THE STATISTICAL SOCIETY. LONDON : WILLIAM RIDGWAY, IGl) PICCADILLY. 1880. Frice Si.rpence. LONDON C. SORMAS AND SOS, PRINTERS, 29, MAIDEN LANE, COVKKT UABDEN. 350^ PREFACE. I pretend to no originality in these pages. Actuated by a spirit of inquiry, I have culled from Mr. GifFen's able reports in the Statistical Society's Journals — from Mr. Mongredien's Free Trade pamphlet — from the Board of Trade Reports, and from The Times^ TJie Hj Standard^ The Colliery Guardian^ and other sources, — CO >■ sufficient data, to warrant my giving a sketch of g the state and prospects of the trade of this Empire. Ij It may be, that my statistics maybe proven erroneous, 5 and my inferences fallacious ; that the future prospects o of this country may justly be painted in a more roseate hue than in these pages delineated. If it should g thus happen, I shall rejoice as an Englishman naturally cS interested in the welfare of the land of his birth and in the commercial greatness of his country. 43335 <> CHAPTER I. State of our Exports and Imports to June, 1880. Tuis country is now said to be slowly recovering from a commercial depression of unusual severity, extent, and duration. The evil, however, may not be unattended by countervailing good, should it lead to such an investigation, as may enable us to trace the latent causes of distress. I lately had occasion to travel in England, and over a portion of Ireland. During my tour, I was everywhere greeted with the same tale of depression of trade, and with gloomy forebodings for the future. All classes seemed to join in the universal cry : " That the trade of the country was going to the dogs." So I determined to judge for myself, and to ascertain, if possible, whether these complaints were well-founded ; whether there was now a re-action ; and whether the causes which had led to the alleged depression were permanent or merely transitory. The result of my investigations are condensed in this slight sketch. Some perliaps, may read it, avIio might otherwise be deterred from perusing long columns of dry statistics, and may turn their attention, to a subject of paramount importance to all interested, in the prosperity and welfare of this Empire. That there has been a great depression ; no one can deny ; that — aggravated by bad harvests, this depres- sion has extended over five or six years is patent, and that — the re- action long hoped for, and said to have arrived at the end of 187^ and commencement of 1880, has disappointed the hopes of the sanguine is also generally allowed. The statistics of the Board of Trade show that with the exce[)tion of the years 1871, '72, and '73, we had up to 1879, in the last eighteen years, imported goods to the value of £322,000,000 over those exported. Out of this amount, £231,000,000 represent the excess on the four years of 1875, '70, '77, and '78, alone. We exported in 1875, £223,000,000 ; in 1870, £200.000,000; in 1S77, £198,000,000; in 1878, £1'J2,( 100,01)0 ; in 1879, £191,000,000, which shows a steady and nlanniiiLr decrease. Xincty-lwo j)rr cent, ol" these ex]»orts, consist of iii:iniir:i(t m-<(l L'^oods. niid (tnl)' eight jx.t cent, of raw produce, of whicli t wo-tliii'ds consist of eoal, coke, and iron. Jt is then move particularly with regard to manufactured articles and iron, that the reader's attention is requested. It is not suggested, that because the Imports exceed the Exports that the country, is by that difference, so much the poorer. For the country, by its very wealth, has been able to advance loans to foreio;n States, and they repay the interest not in specie but in goods. In fact, no large international payments are ever wholly made in specie. Even the French indemnity to Germany was paid thus :* Frencli gold and silver .... £6,400,000 Bank Notes, French and German . . 8,200,000 Bills of Exchange on Belgium and Holland 16,000,000 Germany . . 40,000,000 „ „ England . . 24,000,000 £94,600,000 In such a transaction as the above, we see that hardly one -sixteenth of the whole amount was paid in specie ; and it would naturally be supposed that as we apparently bought more by £322,000,000 than we sold, that we would have had to pay a portion of thiii in specie, and that our export of specie to pay for the same would exceed our imports. But such is not the fact, for we have actually received from abroad, during * These statistics are taken horn A. Mongredien's Free Trade pamphlet and the Journals of the Statistical Society. 1* a series of eighteen years, an excess of specie amounting to over £92,5(jO,000. Again, wlien those exports are taken into considera- tion and analyzed, it will be found that a large amount of the decrease is owing to a depreciation in the money value of the goods exported, or, in other words, to a dechne in prices. The average decline of price in our exports may be taken, at about 23 per cent. Mr. Mongredien, in his able treatise on Free Trade, written in 1879, says : ^' He arrives at the conclusion, that since 1861, the average price of commodities (after rising for some, years) has again fallen, and is now 22^ per cent, below the average of that year, and 30|- per cent. below the high figure which it liad reached in 1872. ]\Ir. GifFen in his pa[)er read before the Statistical Society on the 21st January, 1879, calculates that the average fall of prices is about 24 per cent., as deduced from the declared quantities and values in each year, from 1801 to 1877, and that prices in 1879 were at a much lower level, than they were after the depression of 1805. Mr. riinTcn goes on to say; that the exports of British niid Irish produce, show a falling off in total value, between 1878 and 1877, of about 22 percent.; and Ix'iwr'cn 187.'3 aud 1879 of 25 per cent. The Exports in 1873 were . . . £255,105,000 Do. 1877 .... 198,893,000 Do. 1879 .... 191,504,000 There has been a diminution in quantity as well as in price, but allowing for argument, that the quantity of goods exported, has been the same, but the price has fallen, we arrive at this conclusion, — That the country is at a stand-still, and this notwithstanding the steady increase of population. Our manufacturers and traders are producing the same amount of goods with their profits diminished at the rate of 23 per cent. It has been to meet this loss, that wages have been lowered; but taking into consideration all the circumstances of cheapened raw material, wages, &c.j there is no doubt, but, that our trade is now carried on, at a seriously decreased margin for profit, and in many instances, at a positive loss. But there has been in reality a decrease, not only in price, but in quantity. Besides the Board of Trade Returns, to which further reference will be made, the following extract from the Times of June 10th, 1880, fairly and ably portrays the hopes, that had arisen and the natural disappointment felt from those hopes proving fallacious. " The Trade and Navigation Returns for May show a considerable slackening in the activity of our manufactures aud our commerce. It may be that this is only a temporary abatement of a recovery that was for a time unduly stimulated, yet it must be confessed that it is in some degree a disappointment. It seemed as if the long depression of trade had passed away. The new life infused in it came, indeed, almost wholly from one quarter, but we had hopes it would endure. The prosperity of the agricultural States of the American Union proved our gain in a double fashion. But the effect of these causes of reviving prosperitj'' has now suffered some arrest. The exports of the month of May show a falling-off from the exports of the previous month, and we might almost think that the wave of prosperity was passing aicay as it came. This deduction might be true, were it not that other causes of recovery promise to be soon operative to supplement and maintain the improvement derived from, &c. &c." — " If, for example, we look at our exports of cotton manufactures, we lind that Inst year they amounted to £3,900,000 hi April and to £4,191,000 in May — an increase of no great im^wrtance, but sufficient to eliminate from the comparison any suggestion that the trade has seasonable variations. This year the exports of cotton goods reached £5,300,000 in April, and fell to £4,709,000 in May — a decline where we at least have hojied for a steady trade. The other great branch of industry we are led to consult is that of h-on, the leading representatives of which were received yesterday at the Foreign Office by Lord Granville, and stated their case for more favourable consideration in the renewal of the Commercial Treaty with France. In this trade we find the same lesson. In April of last year the export of iron was not very considerable (£1,481,000), but increased in May (£1,814,000), while in April of this year it amounted to £3,203,000, and fell last month to £2,655,000. We might give further illustrations of the same truth, but enough has been quoted to show that during recent weeks there has been a reversal of the progress we had witnessed in the earlier part of the year." CHAPTER II. The Agricultural, Corn and Cattle Trade. The Agricultural interest may be considered to repre- sent, about one-tenth of the trade of the country. Mr. Chaplin asserted in the House of Commons, that 2,700,000,000 of money was credited to agriculture and the population dependent upon it, could not be computed at less than ten or twelve millions of people. A succession of bad harvests for the years 1875, 1876, 1877, and which culminated in 1879, has mulcted the agricultural interest of over thirty millions a year, at the most moderate calculations. But such a loss cannot solely account for the present plight of the farmers. It is true, that a deficient harvest is a diminution of national wealth to the amount of the deficiency. In fact, corn imported not in the ordinary course of trade, but in order to make good the deficiency of an unfavour- able season, may be regarded as being paid for twice over. And although an increased importation of foreign corn equivalent to tlie diminution in the home supply, may prevent the price of corn from rising to the consumer, it cannot prevent a loss of wealth to the country, and tliat loss falls more directly upon the agricultural iiilcnst. What, then, must that loss have ])C(i) \n1iiii ur li:i\f to record five l);i(l harvests ? Jt is ominous for the farmers that despite bad harvests the price of corn has not proportionately risen to recoup them, for the deficiency in quantity. America has intervened with her boundless resources, facilitated by cheapness of transport, and poured in from her granaries sufficient to supplement the deficiency in England, and to keep down the price of corn. The following table will explain this : — Estimated Consumption and Home and Foreign Supply of Wheat for the United Kingdom. Harvest Year, 1st Sept. to 31st August. Home Produce Available for Consumption. Imports of Wheat and Flour, De- ducting Exports. Total Available for Consumption. Average Trice of British Wheat for 12 Months, 1st July to June 30 Quarters. Quarters. Quarters. s. d. 1866-67 .... 1 1 ,440,000 7,600,000 19,040,000 58 '67-68 .... 10,390,000 9,010,000 19,400,000 69 3 '68-69 .... l_5, 790,000 7,880,000 23,670,000 51 8 '69-70 .... 12,490,000 9,580,000 22,070,000 45 11 70-71 .... 14,100,000 7,950,000 22,050,000 53 5 '71-72 .... 1 1,970,000 9,320,000 21,290,000 55 3 '72-73 .... 10,1 10,000 11,720,000 21,830,000 57 1 '73-74 .... 10,550,000 11,230,000 21,780,000 61 3 '74-75 .... 13,700,000 11,640,000 25,340,000 46 4 '75-76 .... 9,134,000 13,940,000 23,064,000 46 3 '76-77 .... 9,665,000 12,156.000 21,821,000 55 3 '77-78 .... 9432,000 14,508,000 21,940,000 54 78-79 .... 11,825,000 14,417,000 26,242,000 41 10 '79-80 ... 5,990,000 18,000,000 ? 24,000,000 ? - Mean of | 13 years j 1 1,583,000 10,842,000 22,425,000 53 6 10 The mean of thirteen years cndmg 1878-79 shows an annual home production of 11,583,000 quarters and imports 10,842,000 quarters, making the total mean consumption of wheat 22,425,000 quarters. "While our home production has fallen off 28 per cent. — comparing the first five with the last five years (in fourteen years ending 1879), the imports have hugely increased. In the first five years we imported on an average 8,404,000 quarters ; but in the last five years (ending 1878-9) the quantity averaged 13,332,000 quarters per annum, or an increase of over 58 per cent. In the last two years we imported 14,508,000 and 14,417,000 quarters. It is calculated that every third loaf we have on our tables is made from American flour. And we are putthig into the pocket of the American, that which has been taken out of the pocket of the English farmer. It is true, that by the price of corn being kept down, the public at large is benefited. Yet, it is to be recollected, that depression in one trade, causes depression in others. The farmers are now unable to spend as they did formerly ; their operations are curtailed ; money does nut circulate so freely, and although the public get their l)read cheaj)er, the farmer's loss is brought indirectly liome to them in various ways. As Mr. Chaplin says, " It is impossil)le not to perceive that the income and lortunes of all the tradesmen, shopkeepers, men of business, mechanics, and others, as well as those wliom 11 they employed, residing in the rural capitals of agricultural counties, were intimately bound up and connected with the property of agriculture." But even with favourable harvests, the farmer can hardly now compete with American corn, and notliing portrays this clearer, than the fact, that the corn cultivation in England has decreased as much as half a million of acres, in the last five years. There has been a reduction in the wheat area of 10 per cent., and of the yield by 37 per cent. Next to the corn trade, the cattle trade may be considered the most important to the agriculturist; but here again, foreign competition is placing the Eno^lish farmer at a disadvantao'e. It misfht be said, let him drop corn growing and take to cattle breeding, but what a change has come over the spirit of the dream since 1848. In that year the thin end of the wedofe was inserted which has now nearlv ruined the trade. I extract the following from the Times of December 5th, 1843. " Smithfield- Market, Monday, Dec. 5. " The effects of the new tariff are beginning to show themselves more and more; the places of exports have increased both in number and distance. Until to-day the foreign cattle imported into England has been entirely confined to the continent, but now it will be 12 found that the most distant shores have contributed to the market. The number so received, however, is on the smallest scale, yet not the less interesting as coming from Lower Canada and from the East Indies. The official account on which the duty has been paid for the week ending the 3rd inst. gives the following result :— 3 cows from Rotterdam; 1 ditto from Quebec; 1 ditto from Montreal; 1 ditto from St. John's, New Brunswick; 1 bull from Calcutta — making a total of seven head. The number at market to-day was about five, all of which were of a vcr}^ bad quality, and commanded little or no attention. The prices realized for three were perhaps lower than on any former occasion." There were imported from America, 299 cattle in 1875; 380 in 1876 ; 11,523 in 1877; and 20,733 in the first five months of 1871). From this it will be seen how the import cattle trade has increased by leaps and bounds, and how hard it must be for the farmer to struirirle a£!:ainst the advan- tages that America possesses in her boundless prairies, upon which no rent is paid, and where many herdsmen own 75,000 head of cattle, costing them but £1. 5s per head to breed and raise, and which can be landed in England at an average freight of £2. 10s or £3 per head. Australia is also attempting to send her meat into the market. l)ut it is too early yet to count upon any serious opposition from tluit country. ] The following table will give an idea of the increase in the value of import as regards cattle, &c. from 1859, to 1879. Table E. — Population* of the United Kingdom and Value of Imports of Live Stoch, Corn and Grain, and various Kinds of Dead Meat and Provisions in each of the Years 1852 to 1878, aiid Proportion per Head, of Population. Population* of the United Kingdom, Estimated at the middle of each Year. Imports. Tears. Live Cattle Sheep, and Pigs. Corn, Grain, and Flour. Dead Meat and Provisions. Total. Value per Head of Population. No. £ £ £ £ £ s. d. 1859.. 28,590,224 1,6.34,766 18,044,203 4,680,629 24.359.598 — 17 — '60... 28,778,411 2,117,860 31,676,353 8,076,304 41,870,517 9 1 '61... 28,974,362 2,211,969 34,922,095 9,151,078 46,285,142 11 11 '62... 29,255,015 1,888,236 37.774.148 10,630,734 50,293,118 14 5 '63... 29.433.918 2,655,072 25,956,520 10.841, .324 39,452,916 6 10 '64... 29,628,578 4,275,322 19,882,181 12,157,010 36,314,513 4 6 '6.5... 29,861,908 6,54,8413 20,725,483 12,667,838 39.941.734 6 9 '66... 30,076,812 5,839,058 30,049,655 1.3,483,715 49,372,428 12 10 '67... 30.334.999 4,148,382 41,368,349 12,489,331 58,006,062 18 3 '68... 30,617,718 2,698,496 49,432,624 13,227,683 55,408,803 16 2 '69... 30,913,513 5,299,087 37,351,089 15,189,933 54,840,109 17 5 '70... 31,205,444 4,654,905 34,170,221 14,773,712 53.598.838 14 4 '71... 31,513,442 5,663,150 42,691,464 16,593,668 64,948,282 2 1 3 '72... 31.835.757 4,394,850 51,228,816 18,604,273 74,227,939 2 6 8 '73... 32,124,598 5,418,584 51.737.811 23,854,967 81,011,362 10 5 '74... 32,426,369 5,265,041 51,070,202 25,224,958 81,560,201 2 10 4 '75... 32,749,167 7,326,288 53,086,691 25,880,806 86.293,785 2 12 8 . '76... 33.093.439 7,260,119 51,812,438 29,851,647 88,924,204 2 13 9 '77... 33.446.930 6,012,564 63,536,322 30,144,013 99,692,899 2 19 7 '78... 33,799,386 7,453,309 59,064,875 29,478,065 95,996,249 2 16 10 '79... 34,000,000 7,070,892 60,596,389 31,402,080 99,068,851 2 18 3} *Exclusive of the army, navy, and merchant seamen abroad. CHAPTER III. The Cotton and Iron Teade. It is in the memory of many, how England obtained her first supremacy in machinery, how hand-looms and spindles gave way to steam, and how this country became the manufactory^ of cotton goods for the world. The hand-looms of India and elsewhere could not compete with the steam machinery, and England had it all her own way. Enijland was the first in the market with her inven- tions. Her engineers were the most renowned and the greatest in the world. She was enabled to obtain her cotton from other countries, generally in her own ships, the freights gave profits to the ship owners, and on the produce arri\'ing at her ports the cotton was sold and worked up into "[)iece goods, &c., whereby thousands of factory hands were fed and clothed, and millions of pounds spent in wages in the manufacturing districts. A large amount of cotton was re-exported in its manufactured state and sold in tlic markets of America, 15 China, India, Burmali, and elsewhere, giving a profit to the manufacturer and shipper, who speedily became " merchant princes." We have not heard so much of these princes of late years. Thus the time of prosperity culminated in Manchester about the American ^Yar. Manufacturers then, instead of husbanding their resources, spent their quickly-gained profits, in increas- ing their spindles, without reckoning upon the inevitable which has now come to pass. In America and India thinking men with capital had watched the progress the cotton trade was making, and it was naturally suggested — Why should we send our cotton across the sea to the machinery to get it back worked up into piece goods, when we could bring the machinery to the cotton? Consequently, year by year, mills have arisen near the cotton fields. Overseers and managing men, cognizant of the secrets of the trade, have been imported from England, bribed by the promise of large salaries. The natural result has been obtained — that cotton, of local manufacture, competes in India and America with the English manufactured article, plus the advantage of not having to pay two freights, and the incidental charges thereon, and also aided by the fact (particularly in India) that cheap labour is thrown in the scale, against the strikes and heavy wages of the Lancashire operatives. 16 To give some idea of the competition that has arisen agamst the cotton manufacturers in this country, I may state, that in Bombay alone, mills working 948,000 spindles have been started since the American AYar. In the coarser fabrics the monopoly of Manchester has gone, and she must rest content with lessened profits and endeavour to keep her monopoly with the finer fabrics, in which she still holds a supremacy over the other manufactories of the world. America is running her close in the other markets, and the City of Glasgow Bank shareholders are now [)aying for the experience, which Manchester ought to have by that time gained. For out of the millions that were then sunk the major portion has been lost in the Indian trade. Goods were sent out to India and drawn against. As the bills became due, they had to l)e renewed, and this Avent on until the goods had to Ije sacrificed and sold at a ruinous loss. It was merely a question of time as to how long such a state of affairs could last, and it finally culminated, in the collapse of firms like CoUey and Co. and of the City of Glasgow liank. Added to this, manufacturers have weiiihtcd their fj^oods with sizino- until confidence in tluir marks has been destroyed in the foreign markets. I have been present at the opening of a bale of piece goods in liunnah, and the bystanders were sent into 17 fits of sneezing, by the clouds of wliile dust wliirli liiid emanated from the parcel. The following shows the decrease of exports to the East in 1877, '78, and '79. There was exported of cotton yarn and twist — 1877. 227,651,000 lb. valued at £12,192,000. 1878. 250,631,000 „ „ 13,017,000. 1879. 23.3,770,000 „ „ 12,102,000. There were also exported piece goods of all kiiuls amounting to, — In 1877. 3,837,820,000 yds. valued at £52,442,000. „ 1878. 3,618,665,000 „ „ 48,104,000. „ 1879. 3,718,138,000 „ „ 46,836,000. Total of all cotton manufactures, including lace, hosiery, socks, threads^ and other manufactures — 1877. £57,035,000. 1878. 52,918,000. 1879. 51,843,000. If we take the five months of 1880, with the five months of 1879, 1878, we find the exports as follows : Total exports of cotton yarn and twist in lbs. were in — In value . . £5,216,567 . . 4,702,492 . . 4,488,235 2 1878 . . 101,403,700 . 1879 . . 94,963,800 . 1880 . . 77,532,500 . 18 It" Ave take cotton iiiaiiufactiiivs of all descriptions, and coin|)arc' the five months of the [)rc.scnt year with the five months of the last two j-ears, we find that there has been an increase in tlie sales of over two millions of yards, giving an excess of over four millions of pounds in value over 1879. In iron and .steel there is an excess of over five millions, but in woollens and silks a decrease, and, taking the whole declared value for tlie five months, we find as follows : — Exports. Imports. 1878 . . £79,568, 7G2 1878 . . £160,980,751 79 74,242,953 79 . . 144,872,943 '80 89,170,852 '80 . . 173,323,060 " Th(^ delixeries of raw cotton to all p]uroj)e," according to Messrs. Ellison's circular, "amounted to 2,13G,8GG,00() pounds in 1878-79; but the total, as long ago as 1870-71, was 2,104.724,000, and this has been exceeded in several years in the interval. In ut the value has not increased in a ratio with the (piantity. Usqioiis (if Irvn of all JJescrijjtion, indudiug Wire. Tons. Prick. 1H77. 1,678,000 £9,676,000 1878. 1,628,000 7,997,000 1879. 1,959,000 8,070,000 Our exports to German}' and to other parts of the Continent have been decreasing jcarly. This may be partly owing to ihc uni>ersal depression that has been felt all o\er the world, but also to the iact that there is an inci eased production on the Continent ready to supply the home market. Our workmen's si) ikes lia\c gix at]\' a>.>-isti d Ihlginni, Germany, and America to ccinpete Avith us in other 28 trades. Girders are now rolled in Belgium clieaper than we can roll them here, and 1 have been told that there is a bridge near Middlesborough made of Belgian iron. Window-sashes, door-frames, &c., have been made up in Belgium and America for England. In fact, all the internal fittings of houses are now shipped over to England, ready-made, at a price much less than the same can be supplied in this country. A glance at the Board of Trade returns will show the same proportionate results in other trades. But with the beginning of this year there has been a slight turn for the better, and, summing up the results, it can safely be said, that for the last seven years there has been a hea\'y cloud over the trade of this country, and that the cloud has been further darkened by an unprece- dented run of bad harvests. Through the mist, however, a slight glimmering of the silver lining has become apparent ; may Providence grant that the cloud be entirely dispersed and the country allowed once more to bask in the sunshine of prosperity. There is nothing, however, at present to warrant very sanguine hopes on that score. A succession of good harvests may stay an etliux of money from the country, and thereby benefit not only the agriculturist, but the whole bulk of the people. It cannot, however, do more ; but the permuncnt causes of 24 depression in trade in England may be summed up, as follows : — The destruction of the monopoly which England has hitherto held as a manufacturing country. The facili- ties now given for cheap transport from one country to another. — The luxur}^ which years of peace and pro- sperity have engendered amongst the people. — The strikes of the workmen and the diminution in their hours of toil. The old feeling of sympathy which once linked class to class has died out. Loyalty to the employer has given place to a kind of " uppishness " in the lower classes, as if there were a desire on the part of the employed to assert that " Jack was as good as his master," and a determination to perform as little work as possible for him. The old manners have been doffed with the smock frock which was once the characteristic garb in all the country villages, but which is now a thing of the past. At the same time, country sfpiires M'ho used to live at their countr}^ seats and mix with the people, while their wives and daughters acted as " tlie Ladies Bountiful " amongst the villngers, now take tin ir families to town and to the sea-side. The intercourse between the aiii'icultural labourer and the Sfjuii'(! and his ftnnily is narrowed or entirely done away with, lo llic (letiinicnl of l)Otli. ]\Ianufacturers, who;5C i'alli< r.- liai'dly < \ c r (juiltcd their mills or their 25 country houses, now must have a house in London, and live up to and often beyond their means, believed toeare little as to the state of those Avho work for them, and feeling sore against their employes for striking whenever they see prices rising, and for attempting to get as much as they possibly can by fair means or foul out of them. Drunkenness is also making fearful strides, and as wages have increased — with a want of thrift peculiar to the English — the money earned has been squandered. But it is not the working class of England alone w^ho are to blame. Luxury, a desire for show, and a general living beyond their means, is emasculating the middle class. Last winter letters appeared in the papers, com- plaining that feet warmers were not allowed in third- class carriages. I was travelling with a retired Indian officer when one of these letters appeared, and he stated, that when a boy he travelled with others outside the mail coach, in the depth of Avinter from London to Exeter and neither he nor his companions complained, although the}' had nothing but straw for their feet. What would be said now of the hard- ships of such a journey? The very st}le of domestic architecture bears evidence of the ostentation now prevailing. Comfort is sacrificed to big receptiun rooms for guests, who spend Ijut a short time there. 26 while the bedrooms are small and dark, and the servants' quarters are either damp cellars in the basement or wretched attics in the roof. First of all the nation accumulated wealth by a luck}'- concatenation of circumstances; — A long era of peace ensued while others were at war. Inventions and discoveries in steam and manufacture gave an impetus to her trade, and threw capital into the country. Then her children went to all parts of the world, and toiled and amassed fortunes, and returned with their wealth to inhabit those palatial mansions, M'hicli have arisen within the last twenty years, in the vicinity of the Marble Arch. Ihit fortunes are not made in the East nor in the West, as they were wont to l)e made when those houses Avere built. An Indian nabob is now a thing of the past. In short, this country ma}' be said to derive her income from two sources, — from the interest on her capital lent to other countries, and from her exports. She is livin<>' now on her interest I'rom her foreiiiii loans. Iler exports do not keep her. Extensively engaged iu foreign trade, and lately exposed to distress and vicissitudes from distinct and dissimilar sets of causes — I merely reiterate what has l>een oi'ten said before — she is suffering i'rom deficient 27 harvests, a diminished demand for finished ^ootls. derangement in the currency, and changes in the accustomed channels of industry. 15 ut deeper causes of decline may be slowly, imperceptibl}', and fatally at work, — Alterations in the leading channels of communication, such as the Suez Canal, foreign inventions, the discovery in other countries of less costly means of obtaining some important material or implement of reproduction, the acquisition by rival States of sujx^rior efficacy in the application of labour, and hostile combinations in the shape of protection. — These causes may now, as formerly, lead to those revolutions in the commercial world, those subversions of industrial centres, of which Carthage, Venice, the Italian Cities, and the Kcpublic of Holland, have been successively the victims^. But, beyond this, amidst all our boasted civilization, the religion, honour and probity of the people seems JecreasiniT. Wealth has weakened their backbone. Expediency seems to be the rule of the day. A desire to grow rich has seized upon the peer as well as the peasant. The old respect for blue blood, foolish and snobbish as it is thought by some to be, was better than the present worship of Mammon; for in the latter vortex the aristocracy and the middle class are now merged and mingled together, to the detriment of 433352 28 both. The taint of expediency has debauched and weakened tlie moral eliaracters of those in commerce, but worse still, of those who should be the leaders of the nation. We have latel}' seen one whose gigantic intellect, all must acknowledge, stumping the country, and, intro- ducing the worst phases of American political life into English political warfare. We have seen a religious and highly respected Nonconformist, urging his co-reli- gionists to vote for one, who denies the existence of a deity, and for what ? — To turn one set of Englishmen out and to put another set of Englishmen into power, for at the most seven years; — and the justification is, — on the ground of party expediency. In fact the holding out the hand of fellowship to one who denies the Saviour is an acquiescence in that denial; - It is making a seven A'cars' lease of power of greater value than religious consistency or fealty to God — " ex uno disce onnies." If such are the leaders of the nation, what can the body of the people be like. It is, as the advance of Atheism, merelv a siiiii of the times, the small cloud - f(jr troulile in the future. Has not the reader noticed, liow in the da}'s when I'jiglaixl A\!is making for lici'scll tlie nol>le position she has since attained amidst the nations of the world, and laxinL'' the foundation of her commercial i^reat- 2Ji ness, now .shaking lo its bnse — has nol the reader noticed how deep was tlie respect evinced ior (!od and religion, by those okl Britisli merchants, the founders of such greatness? Fanatical and bigoted they might have been, but their steadfastness and relio-ious fervour shines out from the dim vista of the past, like the last rays of the setting sun, as it gilds the placid ocean on a summer's night. I do not intend to judge other men, and I do not argue as to the truth or falsehood of divine revelation. I assert, however, tliat the pro- pagandism of infidelty is fast telling its tale upon the masses, upon those who are becoming the arbiters of the fate of the nation. Religion may be a superstition, but it teaches the highest code of honour between man and man. It is most important for the commercial greatness of a nation that there should be such a high standard of morals, but 1 fear that religion is fast losing its hold upon the people. Expediency will not keep men honest. The word of an Englishman Avas once considered as good as his bond. His goods were as a rule, unadulterated, and he was trusted in foreign countries. But is it so now ? Infidelity and a general sacrificmg of principle to expediency is a rock ahead for England's commercial greatness. But, — It was in the Englishman, ' such as God made him in this island, that the moving cause of ,^0 the commercial [)re-emiiience of the comitry was to be tbiiiul, niul his title to that pre-eminence may still be secured, if he can in himself l)ut be preserved, or even rescued from deo'eneracv and atheism.' U/Vi ^'^•*^v-.T,«au..,.. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS ANGELES THE UNIVERSITY LIBRARY -^ lUIHlHrjUKilDNAl liHUAHY lACIiH 'I I AA 001 007 959 ililiji 1 1 n h 9 ^Hfc,