University of California
College of Agriculture
Agricultural Experiment Station
Berkeley, California
AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRICES RECEIVED FOR CANNED APRICOTS BY CANNERS
IN CALIFORNIA — SEASONS, 1924-25 THROUGH 1935-36
by
H. J. Stover
June, 1936
Contribution of the
Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics
Mimeographed Report No. 47
AN ANALYSIS OF THE FRICSS RECEIVED FOR CANNED APRICOTS BY CANNERS
IN CALIFORNIA SEASONS, 1924-25 THROUGH 1935-36
H. J. Stover^
This report presents the results of an analysis which has been made for
the purpose of determining the more important factors which have been responsible
for the variations in the annual average f.o.b. prices received for canned apricots
by canners in California from 1924-25 through 1935-36 and of measuring the influence
of each of these factors upon those prices.
Users of this report should clearly recognize the fact that the results
presented herein are based entirely upon what happened during the seasons included
in the analysis. They do not forecast what will happen in the future. They are
designed to serve as a helpful guide in estimating either the probable price at
which a given quantity of canned apricots can be sold or the probable quantity that
can be sold at a given price, under given conditions. In making such estimates, it
is first necessary to determine the probable future positions of the factors which
have affected canned-apricot prices in the past,
Pack. Carryover. Shipments, and Prices of Canned Apricots in California . —
The pack of canned apricots in California in X935 amounted to 3,164,000 cases, on
a 2i-can basis (table l). The carryover from the preceding season was 227,000
cases, which, added to the pac^c figure, gave a total supply of 3,391,000 cases
available for shipment during the 1935-36 season, Shipments between June 1,1935
and June 1, 1936 amounted to 2,547,000 cases, leaving a carryover into the 1936-37
season of 844,000 cases. The average f.o.b, price received by canners for canned
apricots shipped during the 1935-36 season was, according to the reports received,
$2,93 per case.
Data on packs, carryovers > shipments, and prices of canned apricots for
the past twelve seasons, comparable to those given above, are presented in table 1.
Relation Between the FtO,B, Prices and Shipments of Canned Apricots . --
One of the more important factors affecting the price at which a product has been
sold is the quantity of the product sold at that price. Other factors remaining the
same, the larger the quantity sold, the lower must the price be in order to find
sufficient buyers for the product. Conversely, the smaller the quantity sold, the
higher will be the price.
In figure 1 the f.o.b.. prices received by canners given in column 6 of
table 1 are plotted against the shipments of canned apricots given in column 4 of
table 1, The average net relationship between these two factors (meaning the
relationship which would be expected after relationships with other factors have
been taken into account) is indicated by the curve in this chart. Comparisons of
the actual f.o.b, prices of canned apricots with the prices estimated from this
curve are made in table 2, The portion of the variation in the actual prices which
has not been accounted for by the relationship expressed in figure 1 is given in
column 4 of table 2.
.V Ass istant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Assistant Agricultural
Economist in the Experiment Station, and Assistant Agricultural Economist on the
Giannini Foundation,
a,
A comparison of the prices of canned apricots estimated from shipments of
canned apricots with the actual prices is shown graphically in figure 2.
Influence of the Levels of Consumer Incomes Upon Canned-Apricot Prices .
During recent years, the dominant factor affecting the prices of most products has
been the status of general demand conditions. One of the best available indicators
of these conditions is an index of national income, excluding agricultural income,
compiled and published by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the United States
Department of Agriculture. The monthly figures for this index from June, 1924 to
date are given in table 3 and presented graphically in figure 3.
Logically the net effect of a change in the levels of consumer incomes
upon the price of a product is directly proportional to the change in incomes. For
example, if, during a period when consumer incomes were at levels referred to as
100 per cent, a given quantity of a product sold at a price of $4,00 per unit, one
would expect that with the levels of incomes at 70 per cent the same quantity would
sell at a price of $2,80 (70 per cent of $4.00) per unit. Departures from this
figure would be due to the influence of other factors, some of which might be closely
related to changes in the levels of consumer incomes. F'or instance, if the 70 per
cent levels of consumer incomes referred to above followed levels of 60 per cent, the
effect would probably differ considerably from that resulting if the 70 per cent
levels follov/ed levels of 80 per cent. The direction of the change in consumer
incomes would, in that case, be an additional, but distinct, factor.
The influence of changes in the levels of consumer incomes upon the
prices of canned apricots in California is taken into account in the computations
given in table 4. In 1934-35, for example, the index of national income, excluding
agricultural income, amounted to 72 per cent of the 1924-29 average. According to
readings from the curve in figure 1, if shipments of canned apricots had been the
sole factor, a price of $4.45 per case for canned apricots would have been expected
in that year. The actual price was $3,47 per case. By taking account of the index
of income of 72 per cent, an estimate of a price of $3,20 per case is obtained (72
per cent of $4.45 is $3,20).
A comparison of the prices of canned apricots estimated from shipments of
canned apricots and an index of national income, excluding agricultural income, with
the actual prices is shown graphically in figure 4.
Effect of the P rices of Ca nned Fruits Competing With Canned Apricots Upon
the Prices of Canned Apri cots. --^ To a certain extent, one canned fruit can be sub-
stituted for another by the consumer. If the price of canned apricots is high
relative to the prices of canned peaches, canned pears, and canned pineapples -- the
main competitive canned fruits a certain amount of substitution takes place which
reacts upon the prices which can be obtained for a given quantity of canned apricots.
An index of the prices of canned fruits competing with canned apricots,
designed for use in measuring the influence of this factor upon canned-apricot
prices, has been constructed. The methods used in the construction of this index
are indicated in table 5. The weighting factors of 8 for peaches, 3 for pears, and
6 for pineapples were determined from estimates of the aggregate values of these
products during the 1924-29 period. Adjustments v;ere made in the index for the
influence of changes in the levels of consumer incomes, a factor already included
in the analysis. The index as used in measuring the effect of the prices of canned
fruits competing with canned apricots upon the prices of canned apricots is given
in column 9 of table 5.
The relation of the index of the prices of competing canned fruits to the
prices of canned apricots has been measured by taking the portions of the canned-
apricot prices which were unaccounted for by the relationships with shipments of
3.
canned apricots and an index of national income, and relating these to the compet-
ing-canned-f ruit-price index (table 6 and figure 5), For example, as indicated
above, the actual price of canned apricots in 1934-35 was $3.47 per case. An
estimate of this price based solely upon shipments of canned apricots ajnounted to
$4.45 per case. Account being taken of consumer incomes as an additional factor,
the estimate became $3,20 per case. The unexplained portion of the price of $0.27
per case still remaining ($3.47 minus $3,20) was, as shown in table 6 and figure 5,
partially accounted for by the prices of competing canned fruits which, in that
particular year, were relatively high.
A comparison of the prices of canned apricots estinated from shipments of
C canned apricots, an index of national income, excluding agricultural income, and
an index of the prices of competing canned fruits with the actual prices is shown
graphically in figure 6.
Use of the Results of this Analysis .-- As indicated earlier in this
report, this analysis has been made for the purpose of providing some basis for
estimating the probable quantities of canned apricots which might be sold during a
given season at various prices and with various assumed deinend conditions.
The curves plotted in figure 7 and the readings from these curves, given
in tables 7 and 8, are presented for the purpose of illustrating the proper use of
the results of this analysis. If, for example, one should assume that during a
particular season demand conditions would approximate those of the 1935-36 season,
an estimate of the price which might be expected for shipments of 2,500,000 cases
would be $2.96 per case (see either table 7 or figure 7). Under similar conditions,
shipments of 2,000,000 cases might be expected to sell for around $3.30. Consider-
ing the problem from the point of view of estimating the quantities of canned
apricots which might be sold at a price of , let us say, $3.00 per case, one would,
from readings in table 8, or figure 7, estimate that under conditions similar to
those of the 1S35-36 season, 2,430,000 cases could be sold.
Assuming demand conditions in the neighborhood of those prevailing in
1935-36, an increase in shipments of canned apricots from 2,200,000 cases to
2,400,000 cases, or from 2,400,000 cases to 2,600,000 cases, may be expected to
result in lower prices for canned apricots to the extent of approximately 12 cents
per case. A rise in the index of national income, excluding agricultural income,
from 75 to 80, or from 80 to 85, other things remaining the same, may be expected
to result in higher prices for canned apricots of about 19 cents per case. The
net effect of the index of competing canned fruit prices is to raise the price of
canned apricots approximately 10 cents per case with each increase of 5 per cent
in the index, after account is taken of changes in the index of national income.
With the index of national income at the 80 per cent level, a rise of 5 per cent
in the adjusted index (adjusted for changes in the index of national income) is
equivalent to a rise of 4 per cent in the unadjusted index.
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4.
Pack, Carryover, Shipments, and F.O.B. Prices of Canned
Apricots, California, 1S24-25 to 1935-36
June
through
May
Pack,
2^ -can
basis
Carryover
from the
preceding
year
Supply
availarjle
for
shipment
Shipments
Carryover
into the
following
year
F.o.b.
prices
of canned
apricots
1
Z
3
4
5
6
thousand
cases
thousand
cases
thousand
cases
thousand
cases
thousand
cases
dollars
per case
1 , ybo
oc c
0
1,951
3iD
o . y 1
<c , uy4
'ADO
ci
t. no
OOP. on
O , <CC /
ci
o y »i4o
O U A 1
c, 04 /
4U1
"Z f) c
"x con oci
Lac, 1 -co
O C CTi
c , y bU
/I m
4Ui
Of obL
(C, 4uy
Geo
y
0 . y /
Ls CjO — cL^
T Q Q '1
Q c; o
y
c , y4o
O "7 0 0
c; , / oy
1D4
"z en
/I r\o%
4 , UcO
4,1//
O Q O D
c , yoo
1 TOO
1 , loy
"z on
o. y /
T Q C; y1
i , ioy
O , i4c)
c , oy /
C A C
D4d
"Z. "Z o
O . od
cL , UUO
c; /I C
04o
c; c: Q
c , DD<c
c, , Uci r
DlO
o c /
d4
1932-33
1,805
515
2,320
1,S97
2. 23
1933-34
2,416
323
2,739
2,572
167
2 , 37
1934-35
1,774
167
1,941
1,714
227
3.47
1935-36
3,164
227
3,391
2,547
844
2,93
Sources of data:
Cols, 1, 2, 4, and 5: Compiled by the Canners League of California.
Col, 3) Col, 1 plus col, 2,
Col, 6: Compiled from records of canners. Prices are v>^eighted average
prices for all grades and sizes of cans, f.o.b. cannery.
These figures are based on reports covering the following numbers
of cases:
1924- 25
1925- 26
1926- 27
1927- 28
1928- 29
1929- 30
978,054
959,970
1,339,092
1,304,610
1,214,527
1,661,305
1930- 31
1931- 32
1932- 33
1933- 34
1934- 35
1935- 36
1,282,475
1,230,679
1,087,403
915,659
895,653
1,206,125
I.
F.o.b, prices
(dolla rs per case)
5
4.50 -
4,00 -
3.50
3.00
2,50
2.00
^31
""32
K 35
>^3
±
1.6
l.i
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Shipments (million cases)
2.8
3.0
Fig. 1. — • Relation between the f.o.b. prices and shipments of
canned apricots, California, 1924—25 to 1935-36, (Data from table 2.)
6
TABLE 2
Relation Between the F.O.B. Prices and Shipments of
Canned Apricots, California, 1924-25 to 1935-36
June
through
Shipments of
canned apricots
F.o.b. prices of
canned apricots
First estimates
of f.o.b. prices
First price
residuals
May
1
3
4
thousand
dollars
dollars
dollars
cases
per case
per case
per case
1924-25
1,S51
3.91
4.16
-0.25
1925-26
2,388
3.72
3.76
-0.04
1926-27
2,847
3.85
3.44
+0.41
1927-28
2,409
3.97
3.75
+0.22
1928-29
2,789
3.67
3.48
+0.19
1929-30
2,986
3.97
3. 36
+0,61
1930-31
2,597
3 • 3<c
3.61
-0.29
1931-32
2,037
2.64
4.08
-1.44
1932-33
1,997
2.23
4.11
-1.88
1933-34
2,572
2.37
3.63
-1.26
1934-35
1,714
3.47
4.45
-0.98
1935-36
2,547
2.93
3.64
-0.71
Sources of data:
Col. 1: Table 1, col. 4.
Col. 2: Table 1, col. 6.
Col. 3: Readings from curve in figure 1.
Col. 4: Col. 2 minus col. 3.
F.o.b. prices
(dollars per case)
2,00 2,50 3.00 3,50 4,00 4,50
First estimates of f.o.b. prices
Fig. 2. — Relation of f.o.b, prices of canned apricots to
estimates of the f.o.b. prices based upon shipments of canned
apricots, 1924-25 to 1935-36. (Data from table 2.)
8.
TABLE 3
Monthly Index of National Income, Excluding Agricultural
Income, United States, June, 1924 to March, 1936
(Seasonally corrected, 1924-29 equals 100)
June
through
May
Juno
July
Aug.
Sept,
Oct,
Nov,
Dec,
Jan,
Feb.
Mar,
Apr,
May
Average
1924-25
90
89
90
91
91
92
93
94
94
94
94
95
92
1925-26
96
97
97
97
99
100
100
100
100
101
100
98
99
1926-27
100
99
100
101
102
101
101
102
102
102
102
102
101
1927-28
102
102
102 ••
102
100
100
100
102
102
102
102
102
102
1928-29
104
105
106
106
106
106
106
106
106
106
106
107
106
1929-30
108
108
109
109
109
106
107
105
104
105
104
104
107
1930-31
103
100
97
96
96
93
93
92
91
91
90
88
94
1931-32
87
85
83
81
80
79
78
77
75
72
70
68
78
1932-53
66
64
62
62
63
63
62
63
61
58
58
60
62
1933-34
62
62
64
65
65
67
68
71
72
71
70
72
67
1934-35
69
70
70
69
69
71
72
74
76
74
72
74
72
1935-36
74
72
74
76
74
77
80
79
78
82
79
77*
1936-37
* Preliminary estimate.
Sources of data:
U, S, Dept. Agr. Bur, Agr, Econ. The Agricultural Situation, Figures for
June, 1924-February, 1936 from April 1, 1936 issue, p, 5.; Mo.rch, 1936;
May 1, 1936, p, 3| April, 1936; Juno 1, 1936. p. 16,
Index
(1924-59. = 100)
June Juno June Juno Juno .June June
1924 1926 1923 1930 1932 1934 1936
Fig. 3,— Monthly index of national income, excluding agricultural
income. United States, June, 1924-March, 1936, (SoasoDally • corrected,
1924-29 equals 100.) (Data from table 3.)
{
\
TABUC 4
Relation Between the F.O»B, Prices of Canned Apricots
and an Index of National Income, Excluding
Agricultural Income, 1924-25 to 1935-36
June
through
May
F.o»b» prices
of canned
apricots
First
estimates
of f.o.b.
prices
Index of national
income excluding
agricultural
income
Second
estimates
of f.o,b.
prices
Second
price
residuals
1
2
3
4
5
dollars
per case
dol larpi
v_t w ^ Jt. X *J
per case
1924-29 = 100
dollars
per case
dollar s
per case
1924-25
3.91
4.16
92
3.83
+0.08
1925-26
3.72
3.76
99
3.72
0
1926-27
3,85
3.44
101
3.47
+0.38
1927-28
3.97
3.75
102
3.82
+0.15
1928-29
3.67
3.48
106
3.69
-0.02
1929-30
3.97
3.36
107
3.60
+0.37
1930-31
3.32
3.61
94
3.39
-0.07
1931-32
2. 64
4.08
78
3. 18
-0. 54
1932-33
2.23
4.11
62
2.55
-0.32
1933-34
2.37
3.63
67
2.43
-0.06
1934-35
3.47
4,45
72
3.20
+0.27
1935-36
2.93
3.64
77*
2.80
+0.13
Preliminary estimate.
Sources of data:
Col. 1: Table 2, col. 2.
Col. 2: Table 2, col. 3.
Col. 5: Table 3.
Col. 4: Col. 2 multiplied by col. 3.
Col. 5: Col. 2 minus col. 4.
-
Second estimates of f.o.b, prices (dollars per case)
Fig« 4,— Relation of f.o.b. prices of canned apricots to estimates
of the f.o.b, prices based upon shipments of canned apricots and an
index of national income, excluding agricultural income, 1924-25 to
1935-36. (Data from table 4o)
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14
TABLE 6
..... Relation Between the F.O.B. Prices of Canned Apricots
and an Index of the Prices of Competing Canned Fruits, 1924-25 to 1935-36
June
through
May
TndpY of
prices of
competing
canned fruits
Second
price
residuals
S p P. n n H
price
residual
estimates
Third
price
residuals
Fob
prices
of canned
apricots
Third
estimates
of f.o.b.
prices
1
2
3
4
5
6
1924-29 := 100
dollars
per case
dollars
per case
dollars
per case
dollars
per case
dollars
per case
1924-25
124
+0.08
+0.46
-0.38
3.91
4.29
1925-26
103
0
+0.06
-0.06
3.72
3.78
1926-27
98
+0.38
-0.04
+0.42
3.85
3.43
1927-28
88
+0.15
-0.23
+0,38
3,97
3 • 5 Q
1928-29
85
-0 . 02
-0.29
+0.27
3.67
3.40
1929-30
99
+0.37
-0.02
+0.39
3.97
3.58
1930-31
87
-0.07
-0.25
+0.18
3 » 32
3.14
1931-32
85
-0.54
-0.29
-0.25
2.64
2.89
1932-33
95
-0.32
-0.10
-0.22
2.23
2.45
1933-34
100
-0.06
0
-0.06
2.37
2.43
1934-35
103
+0.27
+0.06
+0 . 21
3.47
3 . 26
1935-36
94
+0.13
-0.12
+0.25
2.93
2.68
Sources of data:
Col. 1: Table 5, col. 9.
Col. 2: Table 4, col. 5.
Col. 3: Readings from line in figure 5.
Col. 4: Col. 2 minus col, 3.
Col. 5: Table 2, col. 2.
Col. 6: Col, 5 minus col. 4.
15.
Second price residuals
(dol lar s per case)
+0.50
-0.50
110
120
Index of the prices of competing canned fruits (1924-29 oquals 100)
Fig, 5.— Relation between the variations in the f .o.b. prices
of canned apricots unaccounted for in fig. 4 and an index of the prices
ofcompeting canned fruits, 1924-25 to 1935-36. (Data from table 6.)
16»
F.o.b. prices
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Third estimates of f.o.b, prices
Fig, 6, — Relation of f.o.b. prices of canned apricots to
estimates of the f.o.b. prices based upon shipments of canned apricots^
an index of national income, excluding agricultural income and an
index of the prices of competing canned fruits, 1924-25 to 1935-36.
(Data from table 6.)
i
■ ■ i
»■ ♦
17.
F.o.b. prices
(dollars per case)
1— I I _i I ; I ...
1.6 1.8 2.0 2,2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
Shipments (million cases)
Fig, 7, -.-F.o.b, prices of canned apricots which might be expected
for various quantities of canned apricots with demand conditions similar
those during the 1932-33, 1933-34, 1934-35, and 1935-36 seasons. (For
readings from this chart, see tables 7 and 8.)
TABLE 7
Prices V/hich Might Be Expected for Various Quantites of
Canned Apricots with Various Demand Conditions
Prices which might be expected with demand
conditions similar to these present during the
Shipments
1932-33
season
1933-34
season
1934-35
season
1935-36
season
million
cases
GO xiar s
per case
uoiiars
per case
uo j-xar s
per case
Qoiiar s
per case
1.8
2.35
2.83
3.38
3.48
1.9
2.29
2,75
2.29
2.39
2.0
2.23
2.66
3.20
3.30
2.1
2.17
2,61
3.12
3.22
2.2
2.12
2.55
3.05
3.15
2.3
2.08
2.50
2.98
3.08
2.4
2,04
2.45
2.92
3.02
2,5
2.00
2.40
2.86
2.96
2.6
1.96
2.36
2.82
2.91
2>7
1.92
2,31
2,76
2.85
2.8
1.88
2,27
2.71
2.80
2.S
1.85
2.23
2.67
2.76
Sources of data:
Readings from curve in figure 7.
TABLE 8
Quantities of Canned Apricots Which Might Be Sold
at Various Prices With Various Demand Conditions
Quantities
conditions
which might be sold witl
similar to these presen"
"1 demand
t during
Price
season..
1933-34
season
if O'i — oo
season
1935-36
season
dollars
million
million
million
million
per case
cases
cases
cases
cases
2.60
—
2.10
--
--
£.65
--
2.04
2.93
—
2.70
--
1.97
2.83
2.75
1.90
£.73
2,92
2,80
1.83
2.63
2,80
2.85
--
1.77
2.53
2.70
2.90
1.71
2.43
2.62
2.95
2.52
3.00
2.27
2.43
3.05
2.20
2.34
3.10
2.13
2.27
3.15
2.07
2.20
Sources of data:
Readings from curve in figure 7.