NRLF 
 
 rea 
 
 BLEM 
 
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 BY LORD RHOND1; \ 
 
THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
THE 
 
 WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 Based on Remarks made in the Presidential 
 Address to the British Association 
 at Bristol in i 
 
 REVISED WITH AN ANSWER TO VARIOUS CRITICS 
 BY 
 
 SIR WILLIAM CROOKES, O.M., F.R.S. 
 THIRD EDITION 
 
 WITH PREFACE AND ADDITIONAL CHAPTER BRINGING THE 
 STATISTICAL INFORMATION UP TO DATE, AND A CHAPTER ON 
 
 FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 
 
 BY 
 
 SIR R. HENRY REW 
 
 WITH AN INTRODUCTION BY LORD RHONDDA 
 
 LONGMANS, GREEN, AND CO. 
 
 39 PATERNOSTER ROW, LONDON 
 
 NEW YORK, BOMBAY AND CALCUTTA 
 
 1917 
 
 All rights reserves. 
 
! 
 
o 
 
 V 
 
 INTRODUCTION 
 
 PARLIAMENT in enacting the Corn Production Act 
 has decided rightly or wrongly that our National 
 policy for some years to come shall be to 
 make our country more self-supporting in the 
 matter of food. The time has therefore come for 
 us to consider the fundamentals of the task which is 
 set before us. 
 
 If we grow food, we should grow the best 
 food. Contemporary physiology ratifies the ancient 
 opinion that bread, and above all wheaten bread, 
 is the staff of life. Recent discoveries of " vita- 
 mines," or " accessory factors " of diet, merely 
 confirm this opinion when they demonstrate the 
 richness of wheat not only in all the ingredients 
 hitherto recognised as necessary for our support, 
 but also in these newly-identified factors. 
 
 Wheat then is the food we should grow, and 
 increased food production really resolves itself into 
 growing more wheat. Now more wheat can be 
 grown in two ways by increasing the area under 
 that crop or by increasing the yield per acre. The 
 Corn Production Act will increase the wheat area. 
 It is the part of science to increase the yield. 
 
 Much has been done already in this direction. 
 The work of Professor R. H. Biff en and the 
 Cambridge School of Agriculture based upon the 
 Mendelian conception of heredity, which was 
 demonstrated in this country by Professor William 
 Bateson, has resulted in the production of new 
 
 372317 
 
vi INTRODUCTION 
 
 varieties of wheat which yield 10 per cent, more 
 grain per acre than other varieties and possess also 
 the excellent milling and baking qualities of the 
 highest grade wheat from Canada and the United 
 States. 
 
 Furthermore, the work of the Rothamsted Experi- 
 mental Station, founded by Sir John Lawes and 
 directed by the late Sir Henry Gilbert and more 
 recently by Mr. A. D. Hall and his successor, Dr. 
 E. J. Russell, has demonstrated that the prime 
 factor in wheat production is a sufficient supply of 
 nitrogenous manure. Yields of wheat exceeding the 
 national average have been reaped from certain of 
 the Rothamsted plots continuously every year for 
 eighty years by judicious cultivation and manuring, 
 and there is at least one instance in this country of 
 successful continuous wheat-growing on the farming 
 scale on Rothamsted lines. Experience gained 
 during the war has further shown that fine crops of 
 cereals can be grown by suitable manuring on newly 
 broken up grassland without the expense of grow- 
 ing preparatory non-cereal crops. Obviously, the 
 accepted views as to rotation of crops stand in 
 need of revision. 
 
 Another point which has for years gained universal 
 acceptance in agricultural circles the view that 
 livestock with its by-product farmyard manure is 
 the backbone of wheat production is also in the 
 melting pot. Farmers are far too prone to regard 
 farmyard manure that variable mixture of un- 
 known chemical compounds, bacteria and protozoa 
 as the panacea of all the ills that soils are heir to. 
 It is true that farmyard manure supplies a quantity 
 of nitrogenous food to the plant which should be 
 
INTRODUCTION vii 
 
 zealously preserved for manurial purposes, but it is 
 also true that on the average half of this is lost by 
 the rough and ready methods of preservation prac- 
 ticable on the farm. It must not be forgotten, too, 
 that farmyard manure supplies humus to the soil 
 without which permanent fertility is difficult to 
 maintain. But in spite of these considerations, it 
 cannot be denied that a greatly increased home 
 production of nitrogenous manure is indispensable 
 if the home production of wheat is to be increased 
 to anything like the extent required to make the 
 country self-supporting. 
 
 The value of fixed nitrogen in the form of Chilian 
 Nitrates has long been known. Longer still have 
 the chemists known that our atmosphere is mostly 
 nitrogen and that this element can be fixed or com- 
 bined with other elements by certain means as by 
 lightning, for instance. Man may command Nature 
 by obeying her, in Bacon's phrase, and imitate 
 the electric process. The electrical production of 
 nitrates is now many years old. 
 
 The fixation of the atmospheric nitrogen is sug- 
 gested by the chemist as his contribution to the 
 maintenance and extension of the civilisations which 
 depend upon wheat. 
 
 Such was Sir William Crookes's argument in the 
 last decade of the nineteenth century. The time 
 has now come when it is urgently necessary for us 
 to avail ourselves of this gift from knowledge. 
 
 In Southern Norway, for years past, atmospheric 
 nitrogen has been fixed to feed cereals. In Germany, 
 especially since the War, our blockade having cut off 
 the supply of Chilian Nitrates, nitrogen has been fixed 
 by a more recent method, for food and for explosives. 
 
viii INTRODUCTION 
 
 Foreseeing the very plight in which his country, 
 thanks to its aggression and our Navy, now is, the 
 German chemist, Ostwald, devoted himself a few 
 years ago to the practical development of nitrates 
 from ammonia, and to the catalytic production of 
 that compound from its constituent elements, nitro- 
 gen and hydrogen. 1 Some very small beginning 
 has lately been made in this country with the 
 employment of Ostwald's method. The production 
 of synthetic ammonia depends in no degree upon 
 a cheap supply of electricity. It is as feasible in this 
 country, therefore, as in Southern Norway, and 
 deprives us of our last excuse for our long neglect 
 of this subject. Alike for agriculture, explosives, 
 and dyes, synthetic ammonia is the beginning 
 and it is ours in any quantity for the making. 
 
 In the United States an immense scheme for the 
 purpose is now afoot. In the country of the great 
 chemist whose Presidential Address to the British 
 Association roused all thoughtful minds nineteen 
 years ago, comparatively little has been done. At 
 the present time, there is in this country a shortage 
 of artificial fertilisers, chiefly because there is a 
 shortage of freight space. The nitrates are in 
 abundance in Chili, but we need them here and shall 
 increasingly need them. 
 
 The extent to which farmers in this country 
 rely solely on farmyard manure is an instance of 
 their conservatism or ignorance of modern develop- 
 ments in agricultural knowledge. The effect has 
 lately been demonstrated by Mr. T. H. Middleton 
 in a report for the Board of Agriculture, in which 
 
 See 'Chemistry in the Service of Man," by Professor Alexander 
 Findlay, Second Edition, 1917, pp. 123-129- (Longmans, Green & Co). 
 
INTRODUCTION ix 
 
 he shows that, starting far behind in the race a 
 generation ago, the German farmer now produces 
 much more food per acre than the British, though 
 he has a poorer soil and climate. 
 
 Farmers will ask what is to become of the enor- 
 mously increased quantity of straw which will 
 result from doubling or trebling the present corn 
 area. It cannot be made into farmyard manure on 
 present lines without doubling or trebling the 
 livestock of the country, and that is impracticable, 
 for we are already self-supporting as regards milk, 
 we already produce two-thirds of the meat we 
 consume, and the horse population is likely to 
 decrease further as the use of motors increases. 
 
 Fortunately, there are other outlets for straw. A 
 large quantity can be profitably disposed of for 
 making straw board and the coarser kinds of paper, 
 and if this does not suffice, it is by no means im- 
 possible that processes may be worked out which 
 will make it practicable to convert straw into good 
 fertilising material by the direct agency of bacteria 
 without the assistance of animals. 
 
 In such circumstances, Sir William Crookes has 
 revised and largely re- written his book. In this new 
 edition he has considered not merely the recent 
 statistics of wheat production, but also the judg- 
 ments contained in certain of the valuable publica- 
 tions which we owe to the United States. The 
 thoughtful American reader will do well to recognise 
 in the following pages much that concerns him, 
 scarcely less than it concerns ourselves. In the 
 fixation of atmospheric nitrogen both Britain and 
 the United States are laggards for whom it is difficult 
 to find excuse. 
 
x INTRODUCTION 
 
 The attention which can scarcely fail to be directed 
 to this subject by Sir William Crookes's treatise 
 ought now to result in the action which we should 
 have taken a decade ago. We lacked nothing but 
 the foresight and the will ; we had the knowledge, 
 we had the power, if not in falling water then in 
 coal. To-day no foresight is required to recognise 
 the need, and necessity is spurring our will. If 
 we are to feed ourselves, we must begin by 
 securing a continual provision of the fixed nitrogen 
 which is necessary to feed our best food, and which 
 we can begin to make for ourselves, in any quantities, 
 whenever we please. 
 
 The present edition includes a chapter on our 
 Future Wheat Supplies, written at my suggestion by 
 my friend Sir Henry Rew. This chapter contains 
 valuable information on the wheat production of the 
 world and is a fitting conclusion to the book. 
 
 My attention was first directed to Sir William 
 Crookes's book, and to the fact that it was all too 
 little known, by an article published by Dr. C. W. 
 Saleeby in July, 1915, and it was a pleasure then 
 to undertake the financial responsibility for the 
 revision and republication. That pleasure is not 
 lessened now when the work appears and finds me 
 as Food Controller occupying a post in relation 
 to the Nation's food which probably no one could 
 have foreseen when the present revision was under- 
 taken. I shall count myself well rewarded if the 
 re-issue of this book may help to increase the 
 production of food within our own shores and so 
 render more secure our national existence. 
 
 LONDON, RHONDDA. 
 
 November, 1917. 
 
PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION 
 
 THE present volume arises out of the comments 
 and criticisms provoked by the Address I delivered 
 before the Members of the British Association in 
 September 1898. There were difficulties in the 
 presentation of my subject. Limited to little more 
 than an hour, I was compelled, from consideration 
 to my audience, to deal with the results of study 
 rather than with details leading to such results. 
 And constrained by respect for my responsible 
 position to treat the matter soberly and without 
 exaggeration, it was impossible for me to do more 
 than barely outline the serious peril awaiting 
 wheat-eaters who contentedly pursue the present 
 wasteful system of cultivation. My remarks took 
 the form of a warning rather than of a prophecy. 
 To put the matter briefly, I stated that under 
 present conditions of heedless culture, a scarcity 
 of wheat is within appreciable distance ; that 
 wheat-growing land all over the world is becoming 
 exhausted, and that at some future time in my 
 opinion not far distant no available wheat land 
 will be left. But I also pointed out that Nature's 
 resources, properly utilised, are ample. I urged 
 
xii PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION 
 
 that, instead of being satisfied with an average 
 world-yield of 12*7 bushels an acre, a moderate 
 dressing of chemical manure would pull up the 
 average to 20 bushels thus postponing the day 
 of dearth " to so distant a period that we and our 
 sons and grandsons may legitimately live without 
 undue solicitude for the future." 
 
 It was tar from my intention to create a sensa- 
 tion, or to indulge in a " cosmic scare." After 
 considerable study, I placed before the public hard 
 and formidable facts. I have been assailed with 
 criticism unfavourable, abusive, suggestive but, 
 having pondered disputed points, I cannot in any 
 material degree modify my estimates of the future 
 producing capacity of the wheat fields of the globe. 
 
 In preparing this volume, I have endeavoured to 
 give in greater fulness the data on which my con- 
 clusions are based. The actual and potential wheat- 
 producing capacity of the United States is and 
 will be for years to come the dominant factor in 
 the world's bread supply. I therefore give promi- 
 nence to criticisms launched against me in refutation 
 of the intrinsic part of my argument. I have had 
 invaluable assistance from Mr. Wood Davis, of 
 Peotone, Kansas, a wheat grower and statistician 
 of recognised authority. Mr. Davis appears to be 
 the sole person who deals with the problem in a 
 manner to determine such essential factors as 
 average acre yields for long periods, unit require- 
 ments for each of the primary food staples of the 
 temperate zones, and the ratios existing during 
 different recent periods between the consuming 
 
PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION xiii 
 
 populations and the acres employed in the pro- 
 duction of each of the primary food staples. Mr. 
 Davis has contributed to this volume a chapter in 
 which he goes over the whole ground, and practi- 
 cally corroborates all my statements. 
 
 I am also permitted to include in my volume, by 
 the kindness of the proprietors of the North 
 American Review, an article written by the Honble. 
 John Hyde, Chief Statistician to the Agricultural 
 Department of the United States, in which the 
 wheat problem is discussed with especial reference 
 to the future food supply of the States. In an 
 appendix I include still later figures received from 
 Mr. Hyde. 
 
 I have no wish to be gloomy, and certainly no 
 wish to consider myself infallible. If at the end 
 of another generation of wasteful culture my fore- 
 cast is invalidated by the Unforeseen, I cheerfully 
 invite friends and critics to stone me as a false 
 prophet. 
 
 WILLIAM CROOKES. 
 
 July, 
 
PREFACE TO THE PRESENT EDITION 
 
 IN preparing a new Edition of this work I have 
 deemed it best to repeat in full my Address delivered 
 before the meeting of the British Association for 
 the Advancement of Science in 1898. The 
 articles by Mr. C. Wood Davis and the Hon. 
 John Hyde have been omitted and their place 
 taken by an important contribution from Sir H. 
 Rew on " The Future of Wheat Supplies," while 
 I have added some further matter on the present 
 aspects of the Wheat Problem, and also have brought 
 many of the statistics up to date, and discussed some 
 subjects more fully than was possible at the time of 
 the original Address. Since that date the fixation 
 of atmospheric nitrogen has been carried out on a 
 commercial scale, and much useful work has been 
 done upon the improvement and cultivation of wheat 
 and meanwhile the growth of the wheat crop in 
 England has shown a steady decline, the serious 
 aspect of which has been almost unrecognised by 
 the public at large. The outcome of the attitude of 
 our leaders and of the Nation towards agriculture is 
 accentuating the present crisis in our food supply and 
 it is in the belief that no means should be neglected 
 
xvi PREFACE TO THE PRESENT EDITION 
 
 to demonstrate the importance of the question and 
 the danger of taking half-measures now and trusting 
 to the future to look after itself, that I have felt it my 
 duty once more to state the wheat problem and to 
 put my conclusions before the public. Various 
 suggestions have been made to remedy the state of 
 agriculture in England, such as the establishment of 
 industrialised farms and the extension of the system 
 of co-operative small holdings, but it does not lie 
 within the scope of this work to discuss such pro- 
 posals in detail. As far as pure science is concerned, 
 it is well to keep constantly in view the very great 
 deviation of the average yield of wheat per acre 
 from the highest attained, and the problem before 
 the scientific man is to learn how to control the 
 yield so that the average may be steadily raised. 
 Perhaps the most disquieting feature of the whole 
 question of the world's wheat supply is the very 
 poor increase of yield which has been effected in 
 the last twenty years, and it is to this fact that I 
 wish to direct attention, as well as to the decline 
 of wheat-growing in England. 
 
 WILLIAM CROOKES. 
 
THE WHEAT PROBLEM 1 
 
 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 
 
 * 
 
 FOR the third time in its history the British 
 Association meets in your City of Bristol. The 
 first meeting was held under the presidency of the 
 Marquis of Lansdowne in 1836, the second under 
 the presidency of Sir John Hawkshaw in 1875. 
 Formerly the President unrolled to the meeting a 
 panorama of the year's progress in physical and 
 biological sciences. To-day, the President usually 
 restricts himself to specialities connected with his 
 own work, or deals with questions which, for the 
 time, are uppermost. To be President of the 
 British Association is undoubtedly a great honour. 
 It is also a great opportunity and a great responsi- 
 bility ; for I know that, on the wings of the Press, 
 my words, be they worthy or not, will be carried 
 to all points of the compass. I propose to deal with 
 
 1 This forms the major portion of my Presidential Address, delivered 
 before the British Association for the Advancement of Science, at 
 Bristol, on the evening of 7th September, 1898. The only alterations 
 I have made are the corrections of one or two minor inaccuracies, 
 and the incorporation of the matter originally consigned to an Appendix 
 into the body of the Address. 
 
 B 
 
2 . THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 the important question of the supply of bread to 
 the inhabitants of these islands. I shall not attempt 
 any general survey of the sciences ; these, so far 
 as the progress in them demands attention, will be 
 more fitly brought before you in the different 
 Sections, either in the Addresses of the Presidents 
 or in communications from Members. 
 
 And now I owe a sort of apology to this brilliant 
 audience. I must ask you to bear with me for ten 
 minutes, for I am afraid what I now have to say 
 will prove somewhat dull. I ought to propitiate 
 you, for, to tell the truth, I am bound to bore you 
 with figures. Statistics are rarely attractive to a 
 listening audience ; but they are necessary evils, 
 and those of this evening are unusually doleful. 
 Nevertheless, when we have proceeded a little way 
 on our journey I hope you will see that the river 
 of figures is not hopelessly dreary. The stream leads 
 into an almost unexplored region, and to the right 
 and left we see channels opening out, all worthy of 
 exploration, and promising a rich reward to the 
 statistic explorer who will trace them to their source 
 a harvest, as Huxley expresses it, " immediately 
 convertible into those things which the most sordidly 
 practical of men will admit to have value, namely, 
 money and life." My chief subject is of interest 
 to the whole world to every race to every human 
 being. It is of urgent importance to-day, and it 
 is a life and death question for generations to come. 
 I mean the question of Food supply. Many of 
 my statements you may think are of the alarmist 
 order ; certainly they are depressing, but they are 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 3 
 
 founded on stubborn facts. They show that England 
 and all civilised nations stand in deadly peril of 
 not having enough to eat. As mouths multiply, 
 food resources dwindle. Land is a limited quantity, 
 and the land that will grow wheat is absolutely 
 dependent on difficult and capricious natural phe- 
 nomena. I am constrained to show that our wheat- 
 producing soil is totally unequal to the strain put 
 upon it. After wearying you with a survey of the 
 universal dearth to be expected, I hope to point a 
 way out of the colossal dilemma. It is the chemist 
 who must come to the rescue of the threatened 
 communities. It is through the laboratory that 
 starvation may ultimately be turned into plenty. 
 
 The food supply of the kingdom is of peculiar 
 interest to this meeting, considering that the grain 
 trade has always been, and still is, an important 
 feature in the imports of Bristol. The imports of 
 grain to this city amount to about 25,000,000 
 bushels per annum 8,000,000 of which consist of 
 wheat. 
 
 What are our home requirements in the way of 
 wheat ? The consumption of wheat per head of 
 the population (unit consumption) is over 6 bushels 
 per annum ; and taking the population at 40,000,000, 
 we require no less than 240,000,000 bushels of 
 wheat, increasing annually by 2,000,000 bushels, to 
 supply the increase of population. Of the total 
 amount of wheat consumed in the United Kingdom 
 we grow 25 and import 75 per cent. 
 
 So important is the question of wheat supply 
 that it has attracted the attention of Parliament, 
 
 B2 
 
4 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 and the question of national granaries has been 
 mooted. It is certain that, in case of war with any 
 of the great Powers, wheat would be contraband, as 
 if it were cannon or powder, liable to capture even 
 under a neutral flag. We must therefore accept the 
 situation, and treat wheat as munitions of war, and 
 grow, accumulate, or store it as such. It has been 
 shown that at the best our stock of wheat and flour 
 amounts only to 64,000,000 bushels fourteen weeks' 
 supply while last April our stock was equal to 
 only 10,000,000 bushels, the smallest ever recorded 
 by Beerbohm for the period of the season. Similarly, 
 the stocks held in Europe, the United States, and 
 Canada, called " the world's visible supply," 
 amounted to only 54,000,000 bushels, or 10,000,000 
 less than last year's sum total, and nearly 82,000,000 
 less than that of 1893 or 1894 at the corresponding 
 period. To arrest this impending danger, it has 
 been proposed that an amount of 64,000,000 bushels 
 of wheat should be purchased by the State, and 
 stored in national granaries, not to be opened except 
 to remedy deterioration of grain, or in view of 
 national disaster rendering starvation imminent. 
 This 64,000,000 bushels would add another fourteen 
 weeks' life to the population ; assuming that the 
 ordinary stock had not been drawn on, the wheat 
 in the country would only then be enough to feed 
 the population for twenty-eight weeks. 
 
 I do not venture to speak authoritatively on 
 national granaries. The subject has been discussed 
 in the daily Press, and the recently published Report 
 from the Agricultural Committee on National Wheat 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 5 
 
 Stores brings together all the arguments in favour 
 of this important scheme, together with the difficulties 
 to be faced if it be carried out with necessary com- 
 pleteness. 
 
 More hopeful, although difficult and costly, would 
 be the alternative of growing most, if not all, our own 
 wheat supply here at home in the British Isles. The 
 average yield over the United Kingdom last year 
 was 29*07 bushels per acre, the average for the last 
 eleven years being 29*46. For twelve months we 
 need 240,000,000 bushels of wheat, requiring about 
 8,250,000 acres of good wheat-growing land, or 
 nearly 13,000 square miles, increasing at the rate 
 of 100 square miles per annum, to render us self- 
 supporting as to bread food. This area is about 
 one-fourth the size of England. 
 
 Last year there were under corn crops in the 
 United Kingdom : 
 
 Wheat . . 3,025 sq. miles, producing 56,296,000 bushels. 
 Barley . -3.447 
 Oats . . 6,580 
 
 TOTAL . 13,052 
 
 There is now as much area under mixed cereals 
 as would have to be devoted solely to wheat to 
 make our country self-supporting. 
 
 A total area of land in the United Kingdom 
 equal to a plot no miles square, of quality and 
 climate sufficient to grow wheat to the extent of 
 29 bushels per acre, does not seem a hopeless 
 demand. 1 It is doubtful, however, it this amount 
 
 1 The total area of the United Kingdom is 120,979 square miles ; 
 therefore the required land is about a tenth part of the total. 
 
6 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 of land could be kept under wheat, and the necessary 
 expense of high farming faced, except under the 
 imperious pressure of impending starvation, or the 
 stimulus of a national subsidy or permanent high 
 prices. Certainly these 13,000 square miles would 
 not be available under ordinary economic conditions, 
 for much, perhaps all, the land now under barley 
 and oats would not be suitable for wheat. In any 
 case, owing to our cold, damp climate and capricious 
 weather, the wheat crop is hazardous, and for the 
 present our annual deficit of 180,000,000 bushels 
 must be imported. A permanently higher price for 
 wheat is, I fear, a calamity that ere long must be 
 faced. At enhanced prices, land now under wheat 
 will be better farmed, and therefore will yield better, 
 thus giving increased production without increased 
 area. 
 
 The burning question of to-day is, What can 
 the United Kingdom do to be reasonably safe 
 from starvation in presence of two successive 
 failures of the world's wheat harvest, or against a 
 hostile combination of European nations ? We 
 eagerly spend millions to protect our coasts and 
 commerce ; and millions more on ships, explosives, 
 guns, and men ; but we omit to take necessary pre- 
 cautions to supply ourselves with the very first and 
 supremely important munition of war food. 
 
 To take up the question of food supply in its 
 scientific aspect, I must not confine myself exclusively 
 to our own national requirements. The problem is 
 not restricted to the British Islesthe bread-eaters 
 of the whole world share the perilous prospect and 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 7 
 
 I do not think it out of place if, on this occasion, 
 I ask you to take with me a wide, general survey of 
 the wheat supply of the whole world. 
 
 Wheat is the most sustaining food grain of the 
 great Caucasian race which includes the peoples of 
 Europe, United States, British America, the white 
 inhabitants of South Africa, Australasia, parts of 
 South America, and the white population of the 
 European colonies. Of late years the individual 
 consumption of wheat has almost universally in- 
 creased. In Scandinavia it has risen 100 per cent, 
 in twenty-five years ; in Austria-Hungary, 80 per 
 cent. ; in France, 20 per cent. ; while in Belgium it 
 has increased 50 per cent. Only in Russia and Italy, 
 and possibly Turkey, has the consumption of wheat 
 per head declined. 
 
 In 1871 the bread-eaters of the world numbered 
 371,000,000. In 1881 the numbers rose to 
 416,000,000; in 1891, to 472,600,000, and at the 
 present time they number 516,500,000. The 
 augmentation of the world's bread-eating popula- 
 tion in a geometrical ratio is evidenced by the fact 
 that the yearly aggregates grow progressively larger. 
 In the early 'seventies they rose 4,300,000 per 
 annum, while in the 'eighties they increased by more 
 than 6,000,000 per annum, necessitating annual 
 additions to the bread supply nearly one-half greater 
 than sufficed twenty-five years ago. 
 
 How much wheat will be required to supply all 
 these hungry mouths with bread ? At the present 
 moment it is not possible to get accurate estimates 
 of this year's wheat crops of the world, but an 
 
THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 adequate idea may be gained from the realised 
 crops of some countries and the promise ot others. 
 To supply 516,500,000 bread-eaters, if each bread- 
 eating unit is to have his usual ration, will require 
 a total of 2,324,000,000 bushels for seed and food. 
 What are our prospects of obtaining this amount ? 
 
 According to the best authorities, the total 
 supplies from the 1897-98 harvest are 1,921,000,000 
 bushels. The requirements of the 516,500,000 
 bread-eaters for seed and food are 2,324,000,000 
 bushels ; there is thus a deficit of 403,000,000 
 bushels, which has not been urgently apparent 
 
 TABLE I. 
 
 The World's Wheat Crop of 1897-98 from Contributory Areas. 1 
 
 United States . 
 
 France 
 
 Russia and Poland. 
 
 Austria-Hungary . 
 
 Germany . 
 
 Spain 
 
 Italy .... 
 
 Trans-Caucasia and 
 
 Siberia . 
 Argentina 
 United Kingdom 
 Canada . 
 Roumania 
 Caucasia (Northern) 
 Australasia 
 Bulgaria . 
 Turkey in Europe . 
 Belgium . 
 Chili . 
 
 1 Outside the better known areas of wheat supply a certain propor- 
 tion of wheat comes from India, Persia, Syria, Anatolia, and North 
 Africa. But it is impossible to get accurate figures as to acreage and 
 yield from these countries ; as bread-eaters derive less than one per 
 cent, of their supplies from these outlying sources, it is convenient to 
 call the ordinary areas " contributory areas," and to deal with the ex- 
 ternal areas no further than to show the volume of imports yielded 
 from year to year. 
 
 BUSHELS 
 5IO,OOO,OOO 
 240,000,000 
 230,000,000 
 135,000,000 
 105,000,000 
 96,000,000 
 82,000,000 
 
 64,000,000 
 60,000,000 
 56,000,000 
 
 Uruguay, Brazil, etc. 
 Portugal . 
 Servia 
 Holland . 
 Denmark . 
 Sweden and Norway 
 Greece 
 Switzerland 
 Bosnia, Montenegro 
 Cyprus, etc. 
 South Africa . 
 
 BUSHELS 
 9,000, ooo 
 7,000,000 
 6,000,000 
 5,000,000 
 5,000,000 
 5,000,000 
 4,000,000 
 4,000,000 
 
 4,000,000 
 4,000,000 
 
 43,OOO,OOO 
 40,000,000 
 38,000,000 
 30,000,000 
 
 i 
 Add imports from 
 Asia and North 
 Africa . 
 
 ,890,000,000 
 31,000,000 
 
 l6,OOO,OOO 
 15,000,000 
 
 Total available 
 wheat supply i 
 
 ,921,000,000 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 9 
 
 TABLE II. 
 
 Table showing the Variations in the Bread-eating Populations, and 
 the Available Supply of Wheat in the Five Yearly Periods from 
 1878 to 1897, in Millions of Bushels, and Annual Averages. 
 
 YEARS. 
 
 Bread- 
 eating 
 Popula- 
 tion. 
 
 Wheat 
 grown by 
 1 Contribu- 
 tory areas.' 
 
 Imports 
 from Asia 
 and North 
 Africa. 
 
 Remain- 
 ders from 
 former 
 harvest 
 
 Total 
 available 
 supply. 
 
 Required 
 for seed 
 and food. 
 
 Supply- 
 in excess 
 of year's 
 needs. 
 
 1877-81 
 
 407-0 
 
 1797-0 
 
 I3'8 
 
 I74H 
 
 1985-2 
 
 1812-8 
 
 172-4 
 
 1882-86 
 
 432-8 
 
 1937-6 
 
 41-4 
 
 294-0 
 
 2273-0 
 
 1946-0 
 
 327-0 
 
 1887-91 
 
 460-8 
 
 2043-5 
 
 43-2 
 
 260-2 
 
 2346-9 
 
 2IO2-O 
 
 244-9 
 
 1892-96 
 
 490-9 
 
 2199-2 
 
 23-6 
 
 265-4 
 
 2488-2 
 
 2233-8 
 
 254-4 
 
 1897-98 
 
 510-0 
 
 1890-0 
 
 3i'0 
 
 300-0 
 
 222I-O 
 
 23IO-0 
 
 Deficit 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 89-0 
 
 owing to a surplus of 300,000,000 bushels carried 
 over from the last harvest. Respecting the prospects 
 of the harvest year just beginning, it must be borne 
 in mind that there are no remainders to bring over 
 from last harvest. We start with a deficit of 
 103,000,000 bushels, and have 6,500,000 more 
 mouths to feed. It follows, therefore, that one- 
 sixth of the required bread will be lacking unless 
 larger drafts than now seem possible can be made 
 upon early produce from the next harvest. 
 
 The import requirements for wheat are as 
 follows : 
 
 TABLE III. 
 
 BUSHELS 
 United Kingdom, 
 
 about 180,000,000 
 Belgium . . . 24,000,000 
 Germany . . . 35,000,000 
 Holland . . . 13,000,000 
 Switzerland . . 13,500,000 
 France . . . 40,000,000 
 Sweden . . . 4,000,000 
 
 Spain .... 
 Portugal 
 Greece. 
 Denmark . 
 Islands and tropical 
 lands 
 
 BUSHELS 
 10,000,000 
 
 4,000,000 
 
 4,500,000 
 
 2,000,000 
 42,000,000 
 
 UlilCV. Al/jWV/VSjWWW 
 
 'eden . . . 4,000,000 TOTAL . . 372,000,000 
 
 The majority of the wheat crops between 1882 
 
10 
 
 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 and 1896 were in excess of current needs, and thus 
 considerable reserves of wheat were available for 
 supplementing small deficits from the four deficient 
 harvests. But bread-eaters have almost eaten up 
 the reserves of wheat, and the 1897 harvest being 
 under average, the conditions become serious. 
 
 Between 1882 and 1897 the wheat crops were 
 so abundant that over 1,200,000,000 bushels were 
 added to our stores, beside large accumulations of 
 rye. During this time of golden harvests, the 
 exports from Russia increased, in consequence of 
 the Russian decline in unit consumption of 13*5 
 per cent. These reserves have been gradually 
 drawn upon, but enough still remained to obscure 
 the fact that the 1895-96 harvest was 75,000,000 
 bushels, and the 1896-97 harvest was 138,000,000 
 bushels below current needs. 
 
 The following table has been compiled from 
 statistics carefully collected by Mr. Davis and 
 other observers. 1 The prophetic figures are on 
 
 1 1 have taken the unit consumption including seed at 4-5 bushels 
 and the yield per acre at 127 bushels per annum, this being the average 
 of the whole world. The exact yield varies with the country in which 
 wheat is grown, as shown by the following table : 
 
 TABLE IV. 
 
 Average Yield of Wheat per Acre in 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 Denmark . 
 
 
 41-8 
 
 Poland 
 
 
 
 
 I6'2 
 
 United Kingdom 
 
 
 29-1 
 
 Canada 
 
 
 
 
 I5-5 
 
 New Zealand 
 
 
 
 
 Argentina 
 
 
 
 
 13-0 
 
 Norway 
 
 
 
 
 25-1 
 
 Italy . 
 
 
 
 
 
 Germany 
 
 
 
 
 23-2 
 
 United Stat 
 
 es (n 
 
 lean 
 
 
 I2'0 
 
 Belgium 
 
 
 
 
 21-5 
 
 Australasia 
 
 
 
 
 IO'O 
 
 Holland 
 
 
 
 
 21-5 
 
 India . 
 
 
 
 
 9*2 
 
 France 
 Hungary 
 
 
 
 
 19-4 
 18-6 
 
 Russia in Europ 
 Algeria 
 
 e 
 
 
 8-6 
 7*5 
 
 Roumania 
 
 
 
 
 18-5 
 
 South Australia 
 
 
 
 7-0 
 
 Austria 
 
 
 
 
 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 
 
 ii 
 
 the assumption that population, unit consumption, 
 and steady development will increase during the 
 next forty-three years as they have increased since 
 1871 : 
 
 TABLE V. 
 
 
 
 Food and 
 
 
 With yields 
 
 Date 
 
 Bread-eaters 
 
 Seed 1 required 
 per unit. 
 
 Requiring bushels 
 of wheat 
 
 averaging 12*7 
 bushels acreage 
 
 
 
 Bushels 
 
 
 required 
 
 1871 
 
 37I,OOO,OOO 
 
 4'!5 
 
 1,540,000,000 
 
 I2I,OOO,OOO 
 
 1881 
 
 416,000,000 
 
 4-38 
 
 I,822,OOO,OOO 
 
 143,000,000 
 
 1891 
 
 472,600,000 
 
 4-50 
 
 2,I27,OOO,OOO 
 
 l67,OOO,OOO 
 
 1898 
 
 5l6,5OO,OOO 
 
 4'5o 
 
 2,324,000,000 
 
 183,000,000 
 
 1901 
 
 536,100,000 
 
 4*50 
 
 2,4I2,OOO,OOO 
 
 I9O,OOO,OOO 
 
 I9II 
 
 603,700,000 
 
 4-50 
 
 2,717,000,000 
 
 214,000,000 
 
 1921 
 
 674,000,000 
 
 4-50 
 
 3O33,OOO,OOO 
 
 239,000,000 
 
 1931 
 
 746,IOO,OOO 
 
 4*50 
 
 3.357.000,000 
 
 264,000,000 
 
 1941 
 
 819,200,000 
 
 4'5o 
 
 3,686,000,000 
 
 290,000,000 
 
 1 The seed quota is kept constant at 0-6 bushel per unit per annum, 
 but the unit food requirements are found to increase in each five- 
 yearly period. There has been a steady increase of unit wheat require- 
 ments by reason of the decrease of unit consumption of rye, maslin, 
 spelt, and buckwheat. 
 
 To supply these bread-eaters, the world inhabited 
 by bread-eating populations grew the following 
 quantities of wheat in each of the designated five- 
 year periods : 
 
 TABLE VI. 
 
 Years 
 
 Bushels Annual average 
 
 Acres Annual average 
 
 1871-75 
 1876-80 
 1881-85 
 1886-90 
 1891-95 
 
 1,580,000,000, grown on 
 1,746,000,000 
 1,926,000,000 ,, 
 1.987,000,000 ,, 
 
 2,201,000,000 ,, 
 
 131,000,000 
 I43,OOO,OOO 
 I52,OOO,OOO 
 154,000,000 
 I59,OOO.OOO 
 
 Within the same periods wheat was imported 
 
12 
 
 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 from Asia and North Africa by the " bread-eating 
 countries as follows : 
 
 TABLE VII. 
 
 Years 
 
 Bushels Annual average 
 
 Acres Annual average 
 
 1871-75 
 1876-80 
 1881-85 
 1886-90 
 1891-95 
 
 8,000,000, the net product of 
 12,000,000 ,, ,, 
 36,000,000 
 39,000,000 ,, ,, 
 34,000,000 ,, 
 
 750,000 
 I,I2O,OOO 
 3,360,000 
 3,640,000 
 
 3,200,000 
 
 Broadly speaking, 2,000,000,000 bushels are now 
 consumed in the countries where they are grown, 
 either as food or for seed, while the balance is 
 exported. 
 
 That scarcity and high prices have not prevailed 
 in recent years is due to the fact that since 1889 we 
 have had seven world crops of wheat and six of 
 rye abundantly in excess of the average. These 
 generous crops increased accumulations to such an 
 extent as to obscure the fact that the harvests of 
 1895 and 1896 were each much below current 
 requirements. Practically speaking, reserves are 
 now exhausted, and bread- eaters must be fed from 
 current harvests accumulation under present con- 
 ditions being almost impossible. This is obvious 
 from the fact that a harvest equal to that of 1894 
 (the greatest crop on record, both in acre-yield and 
 in the aggregate) would yield less than current 
 needs. 
 
 At the present time the disproportion is even 
 higher, owing to unit consumption gradually in- 
 
STATEMENT JOF THE PROBLEM 13 
 
 creasing from year to year, accompanied by slow 
 shrinkage in the wheat area. 
 
 TABLE VIII. 
 
 - 
 
 1871 
 
 1884 
 
 1897 
 
 Percent, of increase 
 or decrease in 
 twenty-six years 
 
 Population 
 Wheat acres 
 Rye acres 
 
 371,000,000 
 125,800,000 
 111,000,000 
 
 432,800,000 
 154,300,000 
 110,300,000 
 
 510,000,000 
 158,000,000 
 106,500,000 
 
 37-5 increase 
 25*6 increase 
 4- 1 decrease 
 
 The area planted with the two great bread-making 
 grains is actually less now than thirteen years ago, 
 despite enormous additions to the population. The 
 area under all the bread-making grains is abso- 
 lutely 2*2 per cent, less than thirteen years ago, 
 notwithstanding an increase of one-fifth in require- 
 ments for bread. 
 
 It is clear we are confronted with a colossal 
 problem that must tax the wits of the wisest. When 
 the bread-eaters have exhausted all possible supplies 
 from the 1897-98 harvest, there will be a deficit of 
 103,000,000 bushels of wheat, with no substitution 
 possible unless Europeans can be induced to eat 
 Indian corn or rye bread. Up to recent years the 
 growth of wheat has kept pace with demands. As 
 wheat-eaters increased the acreage under wheat 
 expanded. The world has become so familiarised 
 with the orderly sequence of demand and supply, 
 so accustomed to look upon the vast plains of other 
 wheat-growing countries as inexhaustible granaries, 
 that, in a light-hearted way, it is taken for granted 
 that so many million additional acres can be added 
 
14 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 year after year to the wheat-growing area of the 
 world. We forget that the wheat-growing area is 
 of strictly limited extent, and that a few million 
 acres regularly absorbed soon mount to a formidable 
 number. 
 
 The present position being so gloomy, let us 
 consider future prospects. What are the capabilities 
 as regards available area, economic conditions, and 
 acreage yield of the wheat-growing countries whence 
 we now draw our supply ? 
 
 For the last thirty years the United States have 
 been the dominant factor in the foreign supply of 
 wheat, exporting no less than 145,000,000 bushels. 
 This shows how the bread-eating world has de- 
 pended, and still depends, on the United States 
 for the means of subsistence. The entire world's 
 contributions to the food-bearing area have averaged 
 but 4,000,000 acres yearly since 1869. It is scarcely 
 possible that such an average, under existing condi- 
 tions, can be doubled for the coming twenty-five 
 years. 
 
 Notwithstanding this expansion, the supplies of 
 wheat were hardly sufficient for the food demands 
 of the world. As the area under wheat has increased, 
 that under rye has diminished, with the result 
 that scarcely an acre has been added to the world's 
 wheat and rye since 1890 ; and there was in 1897 a 
 deficit in the two principal bread-making grains of 
 more than 600,000,000 bushels. 
 
 Almost yearly since 1885 additions to the wheat- 
 growing area have diminished, while the require- 
 ments of the increasing population of the States 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 15 
 
 have advanced, so that the needed American supplies 
 have been drawn from the acreage hitherto used 
 for exportation. Practically there remains no un- 
 cultivated prairie land in the United States suitable 
 for wheat-growing. The virgin land has been rapidly 
 absorbed, until at present there is no land left for 
 wheat without reducing the area for maize, hay, 
 , and other necessary crops. 
 
 Stocks of wheat and flour in the United States 
 were, relatively to population, probably never 
 smaller, if so small as now. The following table 
 (from Bradstreet) shows the visible supply of wheat 
 in the States on ist June since 1893 : 
 
 TABLE IX. 
 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 1893 . . . 93,700,000 
 
 1894 . . . 80,500,000 
 
 1895 . . . 72,800,000 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 1896 . . . 71,300,000 
 
 1897 . . . 39,200,000 
 
 1898 . . . 32,500,000 
 
 It is almost certain that within a generation the 
 ever increasing population of the United States 
 will consume all the wheat grown within its borders, 
 and will be driven to import, and, like ourselves, 
 will scramble for a lion's share of the wheat crop 
 of the world. This being the outlook, exports of 
 wheat from the United States are only of present 
 interest, and will gradually diminish to a vanishing 
 point. The inquiry may be restricted to such 
 countries as probably will continue to feed bread- 
 eaters who annually derive a considerable part of 
 their wheat from extraneous sources. 1 
 
 But if the United States, which grow about one- 
 
 1 See Note, p. 8. 
 
i6 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 fifth of the world's wheat, and contribute one-third 
 of all wheat exportations, are even now dropping 
 out of the race, and likely soon to enter the list of 
 wheat-importing countries, what prospect is there 
 that other wheat-growing countries will be able to 
 fill the gap, and, by enlarging their acreage under 
 wheat, replace the supply which the States have so 
 long contributed to the world 's food ? The with- 
 drawal of 145,000,000 bushels will cause a serious 
 gap in the food supply of wheat-importing countries, 
 and unless this deficit can be met by increased 
 supplies from other countries there will be a dearth 
 for the rest of the world after the British Isles are 
 sufficiently supplied. 
 
 Next to the United States, Russia is the greatest 
 wheat exporter, supplying nearly 95,000,000 bushels. 
 In 1896 the area under wheat in the Governments of 
 Russia and Poland was 36,000,000 acres. But the 
 yearly consumption of wheat per head during the 
 last ten years has declined 14 per cent., and the 
 consumption of bread is quite 30 per cent, less than 
 is required to keep the population in health. The 
 grain reserved for seed has likewise decreased the 
 peasantry limiting their sowing with the rise of 
 taxation. The reduction of 14 per cent, in the unit 
 consumption of bread in Russia has added, during 
 the last eighteen years, 1,360,000,000 bushels to the 
 general wheat supply. This factitious excess 
 temporarily staved off scarcity in Europe. 
 
 Although Russia at present exports so lavishly, 
 this excess is merely provisional and precarious. 
 The Russian peasant population increases more 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 17 
 
 rapidly than any other in Europe. The yield per 
 acre over European Russia is meagre not more 
 than 8*6 bushels to the acre while some authorities 
 consider it as low as 4-6 bushels. The cost of 
 production is low lower even than on the virgin 
 soils of the United States. The development of 
 the fertile though somewhat overrated ; * black 
 earth," which extends across the southern portion 
 of the empire, and beyond the Ural Mountains 
 into Siberia, progresses rapidly. But, as we have 
 indicated, the consumption of bread in Russia has 
 been reduced to danger point. The peasants starve, 
 and fall victims to " hunger typhus," whilst the 
 wheat growers export grain that ought to be con- 
 sumed at home. 1 
 
 1 This was written in the summer of 1898. What the situation is 
 in Russia twelve months later may be judged from the following 
 description sent from Moscow, under date 22nd May, and published 
 in The Globe for 26th May, 1899 : 
 
 " THE FAMINE IN RUSSIA. 
 
 " The Russian public has at last awoke to the fact that there really 
 is a famine in the land, and money is beginning to flow in from all 
 sides for the relief of the starving moujiks. The aristocracy is par- 
 ticularly generous in making donations, and this may perhaps be 
 ascribed to its former connection with the peasants, their old serfs. 
 Unfortunately, this sudden outbreak of charity comes all too late. 
 Even so far back as last autumn one of the leading journals of St. 
 Petersburg drew attention to the fact that there would be a great 
 famine, and described even then the terrible condition of the peasantry. 
 As the journal in question was rebuked by the Censor, and partially 
 suppressed for taking the trouble to speak the truth, few papers dared 
 to devote much space to the approaching famine. Some papers utterly 
 ignored it, and, after reading the leading newspapers of Russia, one 
 remained in happy ignorance of the gaunt spectre of famine already 
 stalking through the land, and claiming its thousands and tens of 
 thousands of victims. At last, when the winter was well-nigh past, 
 the Press summoned up courage, and began to speak in a vague manner 
 of the failure of the crops in certain parts of Russia, and allusion was 
 made to the consequent starvation of the people. But this informa- 
 tion came too late, and thousands are now no more whose lives might 
 
18 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 Considering Siberia as a wheat grower, climate 
 is the first consideration. Summers are short as 
 
 have been spared had the full truth of this awful calamity been pub- 
 lished in the autumn instead of towards the close of the winter. 
 
 " As the outside world is still unaware of the enormous extent of 
 this famine, and of the terrible sufferings of the famine-stricken, I send 
 you the following extracts from one of the leading Moscow papers : 
 
 " ' Every possible sacrifice must be made to aid the distress, which 
 is now at its height. The spring has now come, when the moujiks 
 need all their energies for their work, and they seem to have lost all 
 hope and energy. Instead of our rich and powerful " Mother Russia," 
 there lies before us a bewitched country teeming with starving beggars. 
 In travelling from village to village, and in passing from cottage to 
 cottage, one wonders how human beings can remain human while 
 living in such a terrible situation. To make matters worse, the 
 general need does not grow less ; it increases with terrible power. 
 The aid now being given is altogether insufficient in proportion to the 
 distress, and reminds one of a jet of water that is being directed on a 
 house burning on all sides.' 
 
 " Letters of this kind are now filling the Press at the eleventh hour, 
 when the actual state of things was known to thousands in Russia six 
 months ago. A landowner, who at first made appeals for aid, and is 
 himself now besieged for help, writes : ' Those who are living far 
 away cannot believe that all this suffering is so terrible, and that now 
 on the eve of a great national holiday, the centenary of Pushkine, 
 which aims at glorifying Russian culture, the value of human life in 
 Russia has sunk to a few roubles. Yet such is the state of the case. 
 At the cost of a bottle of champagne it is possible to save several 
 human lives. If we were even now to make up the total of the famine- 
 stricken, we should arrive at figures before which no living soul could 
 fail to be touched.' Some authorities put the number of starving 
 moujiks at 20,000,000 ; others say the number is far less. Strange 
 to say, the peasants bear their sufferings with a resignation worthy 
 of martyrs. They regard the famine as being the will of God, or as a 
 punishment for their sins. Were not this religious spirit of resignation 
 the spirit of ' Kismet,' so strongly developed among the Russian 
 peasantry, the interior of the country would now be the scene of rapine 
 and revolt. The village priests tell their flocks that it is the will of 
 God that they should thus starve, or that it is the will of the saints ; 
 thus the simple, uncomplaining moujik sinks into death without a 
 murmur on his lips. Life, even at the best, is scarcely worth living 
 for the majority of Russian peasants. 
 
 " The poor sufferers have hit on all kinds of devices in order to 
 still the pangs of hunger. A friend of mine, who has just visited the 
 peasants in the Government of Kazan, states that the women in one 
 cottage were in the habit of heating the stove in the evening, and 
 then of allowing the fumes to spread through the room instead of 
 escaping properly by the chimney. As a result of this, all the inmates 
 lost their senses until the morning, and thus the pangs of hunger 
 were escaped until dawn. The experiment is highly dangerous ; but 
 the women plead that it is better thus to die in one's sleep than to 
 perish slowly of hunger. These little devices, which the peasants 
 relate with an attempt at grim humour, are only too common. 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 19 
 
 they arc in all regions with continental climates 
 north of the 45th parallel and the ripening of 
 wheat requires a temperature averaging at least 
 65 Fahr. for fifty-five to sixty-five days. As all 
 Siberia lies north of the summer isotherm of 65, 
 it follows that such region is ill adapted to wheat 
 culture unless some compensating climatic condi- 
 tion exists. As a fact, the conditions are exception- 
 ally unfavourable in all but very limited districts 
 in the two westernmost governments. The cultivable 
 lands of Western Siberia adapted to grain-bearing 
 neither equal in extent nor in potential productive 
 powers those of Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. 
 
 " ' Last August,' a correspondent of one of the leading journals of 
 Moscow writes, ' it was well known that in many districts the land did 
 not hold out a single hope for the peasantry, and that hundreds of 
 thousands of people must endure the so-called " half -famine " ; that is, 
 they would receive assistance every month which would enable them 
 to live for two weeks without starving. The result of this state of 
 affairs was not long in making itself felt ; the population became 
 exhausted, and began to die.' 
 
 " In the Government of Kazan alone, even in March, there were 
 more than 10,000 people helplessly ill. But this number is, of course, 
 much lower than the actual figures, because the doctors were not able 
 to help the suffering. The ' circuits ' allotted to the country doctors 
 contain often as many as 50,000 persons to be attended by one doctor. 
 The sickness was even greater in the Government of Samara during 
 the last famine. It is, nevertheless, a fact that during the height of 
 the distress, the existence of the last famine was stoutly denied by the 
 Novoe Vremya, the Grashdanin, and by other leading journals in Russia. 
 
 " The peasants are so wretchedly poor for the greater part thai 
 they have not the means to pay for medical attendance ; in conse- 
 quence, most of the doctors congregate in the towns, and the country 
 districts are thus left practically bare of medical aid. I have known 
 districts containing from 20,000 to 30,000 inhabitants with only one 
 doctor to minister to the wants of thousands of sick persons. Such is 
 the state of the country ; in the towns it is far different, for they contain 
 some of the best doctors and the finest hospitals in the world. It is 
 said that the hospitals of Moscow and St. Petersburg are second to 
 none in Europe as regards order, cleanliness, and being up to date in 
 every respect. In the interior of the Empire doctors and hospitals 
 are few and far between. I may say, in conclusion, that the Russian 
 moujik has so far reduced his wants that, as an actual fact, he is now 
 able to exist during the present famine on three or four kopecks a day ; 
 in other words, a shilling will keep him alive for about a fortnight." 
 
 C 2 
 
20 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 There are limited tracts of fair productiveness in 
 Central Siberia, and in the valleys of the southern 
 affluents of the Amoor, but these are only just 
 capable of supporting a meagre population. 
 
 Prince Hilkoff, Russian Minister of Ways and 
 Communications, declared in 1896 that " Siberia 
 never had produced, and never would produce, 
 wheat and rye enough to feed the Siberian popula- 
 tion/ 1 And, a year later, Prince Kropotkin backed 
 the statement as substantially correct. 
 
 Those who attended the meeting of the British 
 Association last year in Canada must have been 
 struck with the extent and marvellous capacity of 
 the fertile plains of Manitoba and the North- West 
 Provinces. Here were to be seen 1,290,000 acres 
 of fine wheat-growing land yielding 18,261,950 
 bushels, one-fifth of which comes to hungry England. 
 Expectations have been cherished that the Canadian 
 North- West would easily supply the world with 
 wheat, and exaggerated estimates are drawn as to 
 the amount of surplus land on which wheat can be 
 grown. Thus far performance has lagged behind 
 promise, the wheat-bearing area of all Canada 
 having increased less than 500,000 acres since 1884, 
 while the exports have not increased in greater 
 proportion. As the wheat area of Manitoba and 
 the North- West has increased, the wheat area of 
 Ontario and the Eastern Provinces has decreased, 
 the added acres being little more than sufficient to 
 meet the growing requirements of population. We 
 have seen calculations showing that Canada contains 
 500,000,000 acres of profitable wheat land. The 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 
 
 21 
 
 impossibility of such an estimate ever being fulfilled 
 will be apparent when it is remembered that the 
 whole area employed in both temperate zones for 
 growing all the staple food crops is not more than 
 580,000,000 acres, and that in no country has more 
 than 9 per cent, of the area been devoted to wheat 
 culture. 
 
 The most trustworthy estimates give Canada a 
 wheat area of not more than 6,000,000 acres in the 
 next twelve years, increasing to a maximum of 
 12,000,000 acres in twenty-five years. The develop- 
 ment of this promising area necessarily must be 
 slow, since prairie land cannot be laid under wheat 
 in advance of a population sufficient to supply the 
 needful labour at seed time and harvest. As popula- 
 tion increases so do home demands for wheat. 
 
 The net exports average 8,970,000 bushels yearly, 
 being 24*3 per cent, of the net product. 1 
 
 The fertility of the North- West Provinces of the 
 Dominion is due to an exceptional and curious 
 circumstance. In winter the ground freezes to a 
 
 1 TABLE X. 
 
 Acreage, Crop, and Exports of Wheat from Canada 
 from 1891 to 1896 : 
 
 Year 
 
 Population 
 
 Acres 
 
 Total bushels 
 
 Bushels exported 
 
 1891 
 
 4,833,000 
 
 2,690,000 
 
 62,600,000 
 
 3,000,000 
 
 1892 
 
 4,885,000 
 
 2,9IO,OOO 
 
 49,700,000 
 
 10,200,000 
 
 1893 
 
 4,936,000 
 
 2,8oo,OOO 
 
 42,700,000 
 
 11,000,000 
 
 1894 
 
 4,986,000 
 
 2,550,000 
 
 44,600,000 
 
 11,000,000 
 
 1895 
 
 5,040,000 
 
 2,560,000 
 
 57,500,000 
 
 9,200,000 
 
 1896 
 
 5,090,000 
 
 2,700,000 
 
 40,800,000 
 
 IO,4OO,OOO 
 
 t897 
 
 5,140,000 
 
 2,9OO,OOO 
 
 56,600,000 
 
 8,000,000 
 
 | 
 
 
 
 
 
22 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 considerable depth. Wheat is sown in the spring, 
 generally April, when the frozen ground has been 
 thawed to a depth of 3 inches. Under the hot 
 sun of the short summer the grain sprouts with 
 surprising rapidity, partly because the roots are 
 supplied with water from the thawing depths. The 
 summer is too short to thaw the ground thoroughly, 
 and gate-posts or other dead wood extracted in 
 autumn are found still frozen at their lower ends. 
 
 Australasia, as a potential contributor to the 
 world's supply of wheat, affords another fertile field 
 for speculation. Climatic conditions limit the 
 Australian wheat area to a small portion of the 
 southern littoral belt. Professor Shelton considers 
 there are still 50,000,000 acres in Queensland 
 suitable for wheat, but hitherto it has never had 
 more than 150,000 acres under cultivation. Crops 
 in former days were liable to rust, but since the 
 Rust in Wheat Conferences, and the dissemination 
 of instructions to farmers, rust no longer has any 
 terrors. I am informed by the Queensland Depart- 
 ment of Agriculture that of late years they practically 
 have raised wheat vigorous enough to resist this 
 plague. For the second season in succession the 
 wheat crop last year was destroyed over large areas 
 in Victoria ; and in South Australia the harvest 
 averaged not more than about 3! bushels per acre 
 after meeting Colonial requirements for food and 
 seed, leaving only 684,000 bushels for export. In 
 most other districts the yield falls to such an extent 
 as to cause Europeans to wonder why the pursuit 
 of wheat-raising is continued. 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 23 
 
 New Zealand has a moist climate resembling 
 that of Central and Southern England, while South 
 Australia is semi-arid, resembling Western Kansas. 
 Only two countries in the world yield as much wheat 
 per acre as New Zealand these are Denmark 
 and the United Kingdom. Notwithstanding the 
 great yield of wheat, due to an equable climate, New 
 Zealand finds fruit and dairy farming still more 
 profitable. The climatic conditions favourable to 
 wheat are also conducive to luxuriant growths of 
 nutritious grasses. Thus the New Zealander ships 
 his butter more than halfway round the world, 
 and competes successfully with Western Europe. 
 
 During the last twenty-seven years the Austro- 
 Hungarian population has increased 21*8 per cent, 
 as against an increase of 54*6 per cent, in the acreage 
 of wheat. Notwithstanding this disparity in the 
 rates of increase, exports have practically ceased by 
 reason of an advance of nearly 80 per cent, in unit 
 consumption. There can be little doubt that 
 Austria- Hungary is about to enter the ranks of 
 importing nations, although in Hungary a con- 
 siderable area of wheat land remains to be brought 
 under cultivation. 
 
 The land under wheat in Austria-Hungary, ac- 
 cording to the latest official figures, is 11,000,000 
 acres. The 1897-98 crop, including that of Croatia- 
 Slavonia, is 55,000,000 bushels below that of 1896-97, 
 and as exports during the last five years have averaged 
 less than 4,000,000 bushels per annum, the imports 
 of wheat are expected to be large. 
 
 Roumania is an important wheat-growing country. 
 
24 THE WHEAT .PROBLEM 
 
 In 1896 it produced 69,000,000 bushels, and exported 
 34,000,000 bushels. It has a considerable amount 
 of surplus land which can be used for wheat, although 
 for many years the wheat area is not likely to exceed 
 home requirements. 
 
 France comes next to the United States as a 
 producer of wheat ; but for our purpose she counts 
 but little, being dependent on supplies from abroad 
 for an average quantity of 14 per cent, of her own 
 production. There is practically no spare land in 
 France that can be put under wheat in sufficient 
 quantity to enable her to do more than provide for 
 increase of population. 
 
 Germany is a gigantic importer of wheat, her 
 imports rising 700 per cent, in the last twenty-five 
 years, and now averaging 35,000,000 bushels. Other 
 nations of Europe, also importers, do not require 
 detailed mention, as under no conceivable condi- 
 tions would they be able to do more than supply 
 wheat for the increasing requirements of their 
 local population, and, instead of replenishing, would 
 probably diminish the world's stores. 
 
 The prospective supply of wheat from Argentina 
 and Uruguay has been greatly overrated. The 
 agricultural area includes less than 100,000,000 
 acres of good, bad, and indifferent land, much of 
 which is best adapted for pastoral purposes. There 
 is no prospect of Argentina ever being able to devote 
 more than 30,000,000 acres to wheat ; the present 
 wheat area is about 6,000,000 acres, an area that may 
 be doubled in the next twelve years. But the whole 
 arable region is subject to great climatic vicissitudes, 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 25 
 
 and to frosts that ravage the fields south of the 37th 
 parallel. Years of systematised energy are frustrated 
 in a few days perhaps hours by a single cruelty 
 of Nature, such as a plague of locusts, a tropical rain, 
 or a devastating hail storm. It will take years to 
 bring the surplus lands of Argentina into cultivation, 
 and the population is even now insufficient to supply 
 labour at seed time and harvest. 
 
 During the next twelve years, Uruguay may add 
 1,000,000 acres to the world's wheat fields; but 
 social, political, and economic conditions seriously 
 interfere with agricultural development. 
 
 At the present time South Africa is an importer 
 of wheat, and the regions suitable to cereals do not 
 exceed a few million acres. Great expectations have 
 been formed as to the fertility of Mashonaland, the 
 Shire Highlands, and the Kikuyu plateau, and as 
 to the adaptation of these regions to the growth of 
 wheat. But wheat culture fails where the banana 
 ripens, and the banana flourishes throughout Central 
 Africa, except in limited areas of great elevation. In 
 many parts of Africa insect pests render it impossible 
 to store grain, and without grain-stores there can 
 be little hope of large exports. 
 
 North Africa, formerly the granary of Rome, now 
 exports less than 5,000,000 bushels of wheat annually, 
 and these exports are on the decline, owing to 
 increased home demands. With scientific irrigation, 
 Egypt could supply three times her present amount 
 of wheat, although no increase is likely unless the 
 cotton fields of the Delta are diverted to grain grow- 
 ing. In Algeria and Tunis nearly all reclaimed lands 
 
26 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 are devoted to the production of wine, for which a 
 brisk demand exists. Were this land devoted to 
 the growth of wheat, an additional 5,000,000 bushels 
 might be obtained. 
 
 The enormous acreage devoted to wheat in India 
 has been declining for some years, and in 1895 over 
 20,000,000 acres yielded 185, 000,000 bushels. Seven- 
 eighths of this harvest is required for native consump- 
 tion, and only one- eighth on an average is available 
 for export. The annual increase of population is 
 more than 3,000,000, demanding an addition to 
 the food-bearing lands of not less than 1,800,000 
 acres annually. In recent years the increase has 
 been less than one- fourth of this amount. 1 
 
 In surveying the limitations and vicissitudes of 
 wheat crops, I have endeavoured to keep free from 
 exaggeration, and have avoided insistence on doubtful 
 points. I have done my best to get trustworthy facts 
 and figures, but from the nature of the case it is 
 impossible to attain complete accuracy. Great 
 caution is required in sifting the numerous varying 
 current statements respecting the estimated areas 
 and total produce of wheat throughout the world. 
 The more closely official estimates are examined, 
 
 1 So long ago as i6th April, 1891, the following statement, by a 
 leading Indian economist, appeared in the Daily Englishman of 
 Calcutta : " People do not realise the fact that all the wheat India 
 produces is required for home consumption, and that this fact is not 
 likely to be realised until a serious disaster occurs, and that even now 
 less than 9 per cent, is exported. It is a self-evident fact that a slight 
 expansion of consumption, or a partial failure of crops of other food 
 grains, will be sufficient to absorb the small proportion now exported. 
 Besides, we have a steady increase of consumption, in consequence of 
 the natural growth of the population, as well as in the gradual improve- 
 ment of the condition of a considerable part of the people in the cities. 
 I believe that, comparatively speaking, India will in a few years cease 
 to export wheat, and soon thereafter become an importing country." 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 27 
 
 the more defective are they found, and compara- 
 tively few figures are sufficiently well established 
 to bear the deductions often drawn. In doubtful 
 cases I have applied to the highest authorities in 
 each country, and in the case of conflicting accounts 
 have taken data the least favourable to sensational 
 or panic-engendering statements. In a few instances 
 of accurate statistics their value is impaired by age ; 
 but for 95 per cent, of my figures I quote good 
 authorities, while for the remaining 5 per cent. I 
 rely on the best commercial estimates derived from 
 the appearance of the growing crops, the acreage 
 under cultivation, and the yield last year. The 
 maximum probable error would make no appreciable 
 difference in my argument. 
 
 The facts and figures I have set before you are 
 easily interpreted. Since 1871 unit consumption 
 of wheat, including seed, has slowly increased in 
 the United Kingdom to the present amount of 
 6 bushels per head per annum ; while the rate of 
 consumption for seed and food by the whole world 
 of bread-eaters was 4-15 bushels per unit per annum 
 for the eight years ending 1878, and at the present 
 time is 4*5 bushels. Under present conditions of 
 low- acre yield, wheat cannot long retain its dominant 
 position among the food stuffs of the civilised world. 
 The details of the impending catastrophe no one 
 can predict, but its general direction is obvious 
 enough. Should all the wheat-growing countries 
 add to their area to the utmost capacity, on the most 
 careful calculation the yield would give us only an 
 addition of some 100,000,000 acres, supplying at 
 
28 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 the average world-yield of 12*7 bushels to the acre, 
 1,270,000,000 bushels, just enough to supply the 
 increase of population among bread-eaters till the 
 year 193 1. 1 
 
 At the present time there exists a deficit in the 
 wheat area of 3 1 ,000 square miles a deficit masked 
 by the fact that the ten world crops of wheat harvested 
 in the ten years ending 1896 were more than 5 per 
 cent, above the average of the previous twenty-six 
 years. 
 
 When provision shall have been made, if possible, 
 to feed 230,000,000 units likely to be added to the 
 bread-eating populations by 1931 by the complete 
 occupancy of the arable areas of the temperate zone 
 now partially occupied where can be grown the 
 additional 330,000,000 bushels of wheat required 
 ten years later by a hungry world ? What is to 
 happen if the present rate of population be main- 
 tained, and if arable areas of sufficient extent cannot 
 be adapted and made contributory to the subsistence 
 of so great a host ? 
 
 Are we to go hungry, and to know the trial of 
 scarcity ? That is the poignant question. Thirty 
 years is but a day in the life of a nation. Those 
 present who may attend the meeting of the British 
 Association thirty years hence will judge how far 
 my forecasts are justified. 
 
 If bread fails not only us, but all the bread- 
 
 1 An average wheat crop on the 1897-98 acreage would be 
 2,070,000,000 bushels. Adding to this 1,270,000,000 bushels makes a 
 grand total of 3,340,000,000 bushels. But the estimate on page n 
 shows that in the year 1931 the bread-eaters will require 3,357,000,000 
 bushels. Thus there will be in 1931 a deficiency of 17,000,000 bushels, 
 unless the average yield per acre be increased. 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 29 
 
 eaters of the world what are we to do ? We are 
 born wheat-eaters. Other races, vastly superior to 
 us in numbers, but differing widely in material and 
 intellectual progress, are eaters of Indian corn, rice, 
 millet, and other grains ; but none of these grains 
 have the food value, the concentrated, health- 
 sustaining power of wheat, and it is on this account 
 that the accumulated experience of civilised mankind 
 has set wheat apart as the fit and proper food for 
 the development of muscle and brains. 
 
 It is said that when other wheat- export ing countries 
 realise that the States can no longer keep pace with 
 the demand, these countries will extend their area 
 of cultivation, and struggle to keep up the supply 
 part passu with the falling off in other quarters. 
 But will this comfortable and cherished doctrine 
 bear the test of examination ? 
 
 Cheap production of wheat depends on a variety 
 of causes, varying greatly in different countries. 
 Taking the cost of producing a given quantity of 
 wheat in the United Kingdom at iocs., the cost for 
 the same amount in the United States is 6ys., in 
 India 66s., and in Russia 545. We require cheap 
 labour, fertile soil, easy transportation to market, low 
 taxation and rent, and no export or import duties. 
 Labour will rise in price, and fertility diminish as the 
 requisite manurial constituents in the virgin soil 
 become exhausted. Facility of transportation to 
 market will be aided by railways, but these are slow 
 and costly to construct, and it will not pay to carry 
 wheat by rail beyond a certain distance. These 
 considerations show that the price of wheat tends 
 
30 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 to increase. On the other hand, the artificial 
 impediments of taxation and customs duties tend 
 to diminish as demand increases and prices rise. 
 
 I have said that starvation may be averted through 
 the laboratory. Before we are in the grip of actual 
 dearth the chemist will step in and postpone the 
 day of famine to so distant a period that we, and our 
 sons and grandsons, may legitimately live without 
 undue solicitude for the future. 
 
 It is now recognised that all crops require what 
 is called a " dominant " manure. Some need 
 nitrogen, some potash, others phosphates. Wheat 
 pre-eminently demands nitrogen, fixed in the form 
 of ammonia or nitric acid. All other necessary 
 constituents exist in the soil ; but nitrogen is mainly 
 of atmospheric origin, and is rendered " fixed " 
 by a slow and precarious process which requires a 
 combination of rare meteorological and geographical 
 conditions to enable it to advance at a sufficiently 
 rapid rate to become of commercial importance. 
 
 There are several sources of available nitrogen. 
 The distillation of coal in the process of gas-making 
 yields a certain amount of its nitrogen in the form 
 of ammonia ; and this product, as sulphate of 
 ammonia, is a substance of considerable commercial 
 value to gas companies. But the quantity produced 
 is comparatively small ; all Europe does not yield 
 more than 400,000 annual tons, and, in view of the 
 unlimited nitrogen required to substantially increase 
 the world's wheat crop, this slight amount of coal 
 ammonia is not of much significance. For a long 
 time guano has been one of the most important 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 31 
 
 sources of nitrogenous manures, but guano deposits 
 are so near exhaustion that they may be dismissed 
 from consideration. 
 
 Much has been said of late years, and many 
 hopes raised by the discovery of Hellriegel and 
 Wilfarth, that leguminous plants bear on their 
 roots nodosities abounding in bacteria endowed 
 with the property of fixing atmospheric nitrogen ; 
 and it is proposed that the necessary amount of 
 nitrogen demanded by grain crops should be supplied 
 to the soil by cropping it with clover and ploughing 
 in the plant when its nitrogen assimilation is complete. 
 But it is questionable whether such a mode of 
 procedure will lead to the lucrative stimulation of 
 crops. It must be admitted that practice has long 
 been ahead of science, and for ages farmers have 
 valued and cultivated leguminous crops. The four- 
 course rotation is turnips, barley, clover, wheat a 
 sequence popular more than two thousand years 
 ago. On the Continent, in certain localities, there 
 has been some extension of microbe cultivation ; at 
 home we have not reached even the experimental 
 stage. Our present knowledge leads to the con- 
 clusion that the much more frequent growth of 
 clover on the same land, even with successful 
 microbe-seeding and proper mineral supplies, would 
 be attended with uncertainty and difficulties. The 
 land soon becomes what is called " clover sick," and 
 turns barren. 
 
 There is still another and invaluable source of 
 fixed nitrogen. I mean the treasure locked up in 
 the sewage and drainage of our towns. Individually 
 
32 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 the amount so lost is trifling, but multiply the loss 
 by the number of inhabitants, and we have the 
 startling fact that, in the United Kingdom, we are 
 content to hurry down our drains and water-courses, 
 into the sea, fixed nitrogen to the value of no less 
 than 16,000,000 per annum. This unspeakable 
 waste continues, and no effective and universal 
 method is yet contrived of converting sewage into 
 corn. Of this barbaric waste of manurial constitu- 
 ents Liebig, nearly half a century ago, wrote in these 
 prophetic words : ! * Nothing will more certainly 
 consummate the ruin of England than a scarcity of 
 fertilisers it means a scarcity of food. It is im- 
 possible that such a sinful violation of the divine 
 laws of Nature should for ever remain unpunished ; 
 and the time will probably come for England sooner 
 than for any other country, when, with all her 
 wealth in gold, iron, and coal, she will be unable to 
 buy one-thousandth part of the food which she has, 
 during hundreds of years, thrown recklessly away." 
 The more widely this wasteful system is extended, 
 recklessly returning to the sea what we have taken 
 from the land, the more surely and quickly will 
 the finite stocks of nitrogen locked up in the soils 
 of the world become exhausted. Let us remember 
 that the plant creates nothing ; there is nothing in 
 bread which is not absorbed from the soil, and 
 unless the abstracted nitrogen is returned to the 
 soil, its fertility must ultimately be exhausted. 
 When we apply to the land nitrate of soda, sulphate 
 of ammonia, or guano, we are drawing on the earth's 
 capital, and our drafts will not perpetually be 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 33 
 
 honoured. Already we see that a virgin soil cropped 
 for several years loses its productive powers, and 
 without artificial aid becomes infertile. Thus the 
 strain to meet demands is increasingly great. Witness 
 the yield of 40 bushels of wheat per acre under 
 favourable conditions, dwindling through exhaustion 
 of soil to less than 7 bushels of poor grain, and the 
 urgency of husbanding the limited store of fixed 
 nitrogen becomes apparent. The store of nitrogen 
 in the atmosphere is practically unlimited, but it is 
 fixed and rendered assimilable by plants only by 
 cosmic processes of extreme slowness. The nitrogen 
 which with a light heart we liberate in a battleship 
 broadside has taken millions of minute organisms 
 patiently working for centuries to win from the 
 atmosphere. 1 
 
 The only available compound containing sufficient 
 fixed nitrogen to be used on a world-wide scale as 
 a nitrogenous manure is nitrate of soda, or Chili 
 saltpetre. This substance occurs native over a 
 narrow band of the plain of Tamarugal, in the 
 northern provinces of Chili between the Andes 
 and the coast hills. In this rainless district, for 
 countless ages, the continuous fixation of atmospheric 
 nitrogen by the soil, its conversion into nitrate by 
 the slow transformation of billions of nitrifying 
 organisms, its combination with soda, and the 
 
 1 Sir Andrew Noble informs me that a first-class battleship would 
 carry about 63 tons of cordite, and we may suppose that in a general 
 action 40 tons of this would be expended. Now, at Trafalgar, Nelson 
 had twenty-seven line-of-battle ships, and the allied forces thirty-three. 
 If we suppose a similar number of modern battleships and first-class 
 cruisers to be engaged, and each to expend 40 tons of cordite, the total 
 volume of nitrogen set free would be 302,400 cubic metres, or about 
 380 tons, equivalent to 2,300 tons of nitrate of soda. 
 
 D 
 
34 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 crystallisation of the nitrate have been steadily 
 proceeding, until the nitrate fields of Chili have 
 become of vast commercial importance, and promise 
 to be of inestimably greater value in the future. 
 The growing exports of nitrate from Chili at present 
 amount to about 1,200,000 tons. 
 
 At the present time the contributory areas 1 
 devoted to the world's growth of wheat are about 
 163,000,000 acres. These do not include some 
 40,000,000 acres in India, Persia, Turkey in Asia, 
 and North Africa. At the average of 12*7 bushels 
 per acre this gives 2,070,000,000 bushels. But 
 thirty years hence the demand will be 3,260,000,000 
 bushels, and there will be difficulty in finding the 
 necessary acreage on which to grow the additional 
 amount required. By increasing the present yield 
 per acre from 12*7 to 20 bushels we should, with 
 our present acreage, secure a crop of the requisite 
 amount. Now, from 12*7 to 20 bushels per acre is 
 a moderate increase of productiveness, and there 
 is no doubt that a dressing with nitrate of soda will 
 give this increase and more. 
 
 The action of nitrate of soda in improving the 
 yield of wheat has been studied practically by Sir 
 John Lawes and Sir Henry Gilbert on their experi- 
 mental field at Rothamsted. This field was sown 
 with wheat for thirteen consecutive years without 
 manure, and yielded an average of 11*9 bushels 
 to the acre. For the next thirteen years it; was sown 
 with wheat, and dressed with 5 cwt. of nitrate of 
 soda per acre, other mineral constituents also being 
 
 1 See Note, p. 8. 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 35 
 
 present. The average yield for these years was 
 36*4 bushels per acre an increase of 24*5 bushels. 
 In other words, 22*86 Ib. of nitrate of soda produce 
 an increase of one bushel of wheat. 
 
 At this rate, to increase the world's crop of wheat 
 by 7*3 bushels, about i| cwt. of nitrate of soda 
 must annually be applied to each acre. The amount 
 required to raise the world's crop on 163,000,000 
 acres from the present supply of 2,070,000,000 
 bushels to the required 3,260,000,000 bushels will 
 be 12,000,000 tons, distributed in varying amounts 
 over the wheat-growing countries of the world. 
 The countries which produce more than the average 
 of 12*7 bushels will require less, and those below 
 the average will require more ; but, broadly speaking, 
 about 12,000,000 tons annually of nitrate of soda 
 will be required, in addition to the 1,250,000 tons 
 already absorbed by the world. 
 
 It is difficult to get trustworthy estimates of the 
 amount of nitrate surviving in the nitre beds. 
 Common rumour declares the supply to be inex- 
 haustible, but cautious local authorities state that 
 at the present rate of export, of over 1,000,000 tons 
 per annum, the raw material " caliche," containing 
 from 25 to 50 per cent, nitrate, will be exhausted in 
 from twenty to thirty years. 
 
 Dr. Newton, who has spent years on the nitrate 
 fields, tells me there is a lower-class material, con- 
 taining a small proportion of nitrate, which cannot 
 at present be used, but which may ultimately be 
 manufactured at a profit. Apart from a few of the 
 more scientific manufacturers, no one is sanguine 
 
 D 2 
 
34 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 crystallisation of the nitrate have been steadily 
 proceeding, until the nitrate fields of Chili have 
 become of vast commercial importance, and promise 
 to be of inestimably greater value in the future. 
 The growing exports of nitrate from Chili at present 
 amount to about 1,200,000 tons. 
 
 At the present time the contributory areas l 
 devoted to the world's growth of wheat are about 
 163,000,000 acres. These do not include some 
 40,000,000 acres in India, Persia, Turkey in Asia, 
 and North Africa. At the average of 12*7 bushels 
 per acre this gives 2,070,000,000 bushels. But 
 thirty years hence the demand will be 3,260,000,000 
 bushels, and there will be difficulty in finding the 
 necessary acreage on which to grow the additional 
 amount required. By increasing the present yield 
 per acre from 12*7 to 20 bushels we should, with 
 our present acreage, secure a crop of the requisite 
 amount. Now, from 12*7 to 20 bushels per acre is 
 a moderate increase of productiveness, and there 
 is no doubt that a dressing with nitrate of soda will 
 give this increase and more. 
 
 The action of nitrate of soda in improving the 
 yield of wheat has been studied practically by Sir 
 John Lawes and Sir Henry Gilbert on their experi- 
 mental field at Rothamsted. This field was sown 
 with wheat for thirteen consecutive years without 
 manure, and yielded an average of 11*9 bushels 
 to the acre. For the next thirteen years it; was sown 
 with wheat, and dressed with 5 cwt. of nitrate of 
 soda per acre, other mineral constituents also being 
 
 1 See Note, p. 8. 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 35 
 
 present. The average yield for these years was 
 36*4 bushels per acre an increase of 24*5 bushels. 
 In other words, 22*86 Ib. of nitrate of soda produce 
 an increase of one bushel of wheat. 
 
 At this rate, to increase the world's crop of wheat 
 by 7*3 bushels, about i| cwt. of nitrate of soda 
 must annually be applied to each acre. The amount 
 required to raise the world's crop on 163,000,000 
 acres from the present supply of 2,070,000,000 
 bushels to the required 3,260,000,000 bushels will 
 be 12,000,000 tons, distributed in varying amounts 
 over the wheat-growing countries of the world. 
 The countries which produce more than the average 
 of 12*7 bushels will require less, and those below 
 the average will require more ; but, broadly speaking, 
 about 12,000,000 tons annually of nitrate of soda 
 will be required, in addition to the 1,250,000 tons 
 already absorbed by the world. 
 
 It is difficult to get trustworthy estimates of the 
 amount of nitrate surviving in the nitre beds. 
 Common rumour declares the supply to be inex- 
 haustible, but cautious local authorities state that 
 at the present rate of export, of over 1,000,000 tons 
 per annum, the raw material " caliche," containing 
 from 25 to 50 per cent, nitrate, will be exhausted in 
 from twenty to thirty years. 
 
 Dr. Newton, who has spent years on the nitrate 
 fields, tells me there is a lower-class material, con- 
 taining a small proportion of nitrate, which cannot 
 at present be used, but which may ultimately be 
 manufactured at a profit. Apart from a few of the 
 more scientific manufacturers, no one is sanguine 
 
 D 2 
 
3 6 ' THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 enough to think this debatable material will ever 
 be worth working. If we assume a liberal estimate 
 for nitrate obtained from the lower grade deposit, 
 and say that it will equal in quantity that from the 
 richer quality, the supply may last, possibly, fifty 
 years, at the rate of 1,000,000 tons a year ; but, at 
 the rate required to augment the world's supply of 
 wheat to the point demanded thirty years hence, it 
 will not last more than four years. 
 
 I have passed in review all the wheat-growing 
 countries of the world, with the exception of those 
 whose united supplies are so small as to make little 
 appreciable difference to the argument. The 
 situation may be summed up briefly thus : The 
 world's demand for wheat the leading breadstuff 
 increases in a crescendo ratio year by year. 
 Gradually all the wheat-bearing land on the globe 
 is appropriated to wheat-growing, until we are 
 within measurable distance of using the last avail- 
 able acre. We must then rely on nitrogenous 
 manures to increase the fertility of the land under 
 wheat, so as to raise the yield from the world's low 
 average 12*7 bushels per acre to a higher average. 
 To do this efficiently, and feed the bread-eaters 
 for a few years, will exhaust all the available store 
 of nitrate of soda. For years past we have been 
 spending fixed nitrogen at a culpably extravagant 
 rate, heedless of the fact that it is fixed with extreme 
 slowness and difficulty, while its liberation in the 
 free state takes place always with rapidity, and 
 sometimes with explosive violence. 
 
 Some years ago Mr. Stanley Jevons uttered a 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 37 
 
 note of warning as to the near exhaustion of our 
 British coal-fields. But the exhaustion of the world's 
 stock of fixed nitrogen is a matter of far greater 
 importance. It means not only a catastrophe little 
 short of starvation for the wheat-eaters, but, in- 
 directly, scarcity for those who exist on inferior 
 grains, together with a lower standard of living for 
 meat-eaters, scarcity of mutton and beef, and even 
 the extinction of gunpowder. 
 
 There is a gleam of light amid this darkness of 
 despondency. In its free state nitrogen is one of 
 the most abundant and pervading bodies on the 
 face of the earth. Every square yard of the earth's 
 surface has nitrogen gas pressing down on it to the 
 extent of about 7 tons ; but this is in the free state, 
 and wheat demands it fixed. To convey this idea 
 in an object-lesson, I may tell you that, previous 
 to its destruction by fire, Colston Hall, measuring 
 146 feet by 80 feet by 70 feet, contained 27 tons 
 weight of nitrogen in its atmosphere ; it also con- 
 tained one- third of a ton of argon. In the free 
 gaseous state this nitrogen is worthless ; combined 
 in the form of nitrate of soda it would be worth 
 about 2,000. 
 
 For years past attempts have been made to effect 
 the fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, and some of 
 the processes have met with sufficient partial success 
 to warrant experimentalists in pushing their trials 
 still further ; but I think I am right in saying that 
 no process has yet been brought to the notice of 
 scientific or commercial men which can be con- 
 sidered successful either as regards cost or yield 
 
38 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 of product. It is possible, by several methods, to 
 fix a certain amount of atmospheric nitrogen ; but 
 to the best of my knowledge no process has hitherto 
 converted more than a small amount, and this at a 
 cost largely in excess of the present market value of 
 fixed nitrogen. 
 
 The fixation of atmospheric nitrogen therefore is 
 one of the great discoveries awaiting the ingenuity 
 of chemists. It is certainly deeply important in its 
 practical bearings on the future welfare and happiness 
 of the civilised races of mankind. This unfulfilled 
 problem, which so far has eluded the strenuous 
 attempts of those who have tried to wrest the secret 
 from nature, differs materially from other chemical 
 discoveries, which are in the air so to speak, but 
 are not yet matured. The fixation of nitrogen is 
 vital to the progress of civilised humanity. Other 
 discoveries minister to our increased intellectual 
 comfort, luxury, or convenience ; they serve to 
 make life easier, to hasten the acquisition of wealth, 
 or to save time, health, or worry. The fixation of 
 nitrogen is a question of the not far- distant future. 
 Unless we can class it among certainties to come, the 
 great Caucasian race will cease to be foremost in 
 the world, and will be squeezed out of existence by 
 races to whom wheaten bread is not the staff of life. 
 
 Let me see if it is not possible even now to solve 
 the momentous problem. As far back as 1892 I 
 exhibited, at one of the soirees of the Royal Society, 
 an experiment on " The Flame of Burning Nitrogen." 
 I showed that nitrogen is a combustible gas, and the 
 reason why when once ignited the flame does not 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 39 
 
 spread through the atmosphere and deluge the world 
 in a sea of nitric acid is, that its igniting point is 
 higher than the temperature of its flame and not, 
 therefore, hot enough to set fire to the adjacent 
 mixture. But by passing a strong electric current 
 between terminals the air takes fire, and continues 
 to burn with a powerful flame, producing nitrous 
 and nitric acids. This inconsiderable experiment 
 may not unlikely lead to the development of a mighty 
 industry destined to solve the great food problem. 
 With the object of burning out nitrogen from air 
 so as to leave argon behind, Lord Rayleigh fitted up 
 apparatus for performing the operation on a larger 
 scale, and succeeded in effecting the union of 29*4 
 grammes of mixed nitrogen and oxygen at an ex- 
 penditure of one horse-power. Following these 
 figures it would require one Board of Trade unit 
 to form 74 grammes of nitrate of soda, and therefore 
 14,000 units to form one ton. To generate electricity 
 in the ordinary way with steam engines and dynamos, 
 it is now possible, with a steady load night and day, 
 and engines working at maximum efficiency, to 
 produce current at a cost of one-third of a penny per 
 Board of Trade unit. At this rate one ton of nitrate 
 of soda would cost 26. But electricity from coal 
 and steam engines is too costly for large industrial 
 purposes ; at Niagara, where water power is used, 
 electricity can be sold at a profit for one-seventeenth 
 of a penny per Board of Trade unit. At this rate 
 nitrate of soda would cost not more than 5 per ton. 
 But the limit of cost is not yet reached, and it must 
 be remembered that the initial data are derived 
 
40 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 from small scale experiments, in which the object 
 was not economy, but rather to demonstrate the 
 practicability of the combustion method, and to 
 utilise it for isolating argon. Even now electric 
 nitrate at 5 a ton compares favourably with Chili 
 nitrate at 7 los. a ton ; and all experience shows 
 that when the road has been pointed out by a small 
 laboratory experiment, the industrial operations that 
 may follow are always conducted at a cost consider- 
 ably lower than could be anticipated from the 
 laboratory figures. 
 
 Before we decide that electric nitrate is a com- 
 mercial possibility, a final question must be mooted. 
 We are dealing with wholesale figures, and must 
 take care that we are not simply shifting difficulties 
 a little further back without really diminishing them. 
 We start with a shortage of wheat, and the natural 
 remedy is to put more land under cultivation. As 
 the land cannot be stretched, and there is so much 
 of it and no more, the object is to render the available 
 area more productive by a dressing with nitrate of 
 soda. But nitrate of soda is limited in quantity, 
 and will soon be exhausted. Human ingenuity can 
 contend even with these apparently hopeless diffi- 
 culties. Nitrate can be produced artificially by the 
 combustion of the atmosphere. Here we come to 
 finality in one direction ; our stores are inex- 
 haustible. But how about electricity ? Can we 
 generate enough energy to produce 12,000,000 tons 
 of nitrate of soda annually ? A preliminary calcula- 
 tion shows that there need be no fear on that score ; 
 Niagara alone is capable of supplying the required 
 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 41 
 
 electric energy without much lessening its mighty 
 flow. 
 
 The future can take care of itself. The artificial 
 production of nitrate is clearly within view, and by 
 its aid the land devoted to wheat can be brought up 
 to the 30 bushels per acre standard. In days to 
 come, when the demand may again overtake supply, 
 we may safely leave our successors to grapple with 
 the stupendous food problem. 
 
 And, in the next generation, instead of trusting 
 mainly to foodstuffs which flourish in temperate 
 climates, we probably shall trust more and more 
 to the exuberant foodstuffs of the tropics, where, 
 instead of one yearly sober harvest, jeopardised 
 by any shrinkage of the scanty days of summer 
 weather, or of the few steady inches of rainfall, 
 Nature annually supplies heat and water enough to 
 ripen two or three successive crops of foodstuffs 
 in extraordinary abundance. To mention one plant 
 alone, Humboldt from what precise statistics I 
 know not computed that, acre for acre, the food- 
 productiveness of the banana is 133 times that of 
 wheat the unripe banana, before its starch is 
 converted into sugar, is said to make excellent bread. 
 
 Considerations like these must in the end deter- 
 mine the range and avenues of commerce, perhaps 
 the fate of continents. We must develop and guide 
 Nature's latent energies, we must utilise her inmost 
 workshops, we must call into commercial existence 
 Central Africa and Brazil to redress the balance of 
 Odessa and Chicago. 
 
44 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 abandoned, not because of the unwillingness of 
 the people to grow wheat at current prices, but 
 because wheat refused to grow one year in three. 
 The settlers exhausted their own means, and often 
 that of friends, and mortgaged their lands for the 
 means of subsistence. Crops again failing, the 
 unfortunates were glad to accept loans of seed wheat 
 from the State and from railway companies, who 
 made such loans to retain population and traffic. 
 Despite these efforts railways were abandoned, and 
 the rails themselves removed from numbers of the 
 luckless districts. Russian emigrants, however, 
 employing Russian methods and varieties of seed, 
 proved more successful in wheat-growing in these 
 drier regions, and it is now known that the crop 
 may be profitably raised if a species such as the 
 cluvum is used, which requires little moisture and 
 has other valuable qualities. It is said that a wheat 
 crop may be grown and harvested without receiving 
 any rain whatever if surface mulching is efficiently 
 performed and suitable rotations are introduced. 
 Another statement by the same critic was to the 
 effect that there were then in the United States fully 
 100,000 square miles of land, 64 million acres, fully 
 suitable to the production of wheat at 15 bushels to 
 the acre, practically unoccupied in any branch of 
 agriculture, which would be devoted to wheat on 
 an assured price of a dollar a bushel (33 shillings a 
 quarter) in Mark Lane, yielding 960 million bushels. 
 The acreage under wheat and the yield per acre have 
 steadily crept up, and it has been estimated recently 
 that as much as 1,000 million bushels may possibly 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 45 
 
 be obtained from the United States, and an equal 
 amount from Canada, where Saskatchewan has seen 
 an extraordinary increase in wheat-growing in the 
 last few years. But 1,000 million bushels is less 
 than one-third of the world's harvest, which has 
 increased 43 per cent, in three decades. 
 
 I propose in this appendix to discuss shortly some 
 of the new data which have been accumulated and 
 to consider the wheat problem in the light of our 
 growing knowledge of its nature, and of our realisa- 
 tion of the importance of the question of our food 
 supply. The time has come to take stock of the 
 resources and needs of the civilised world, and in 
 particular of the possibility of, and urgent necessity 
 for, increasing our home wheat supply. The first 
 step towards the betterment of our position is the 
 consideration of the scientific, practical, and eco- 
 nomical aspects of the question of the cultivation 
 of the wheat crop. In this connection the statistics 
 which have recently been given of the comparative 
 produce per hundred acres of cultivated land in 
 Great Britain and Germany provide food for serious 
 thought. These are given in the following striking 
 table, which is based upon data recently published 
 in the Yellow Book of the Board of Agriculture 
 (Cd. 8305). 
 
 TABLE XI. 
 
 Average Farm Produce of 100 Acres of Cultivated Land. 
 
 GREAT BRITAIN. GERMANY. 
 
 15 tons corn 33 tons corn 
 
 1 1 tons potatoes 55 tons potatoes 
 
 4 tons meat 4 J tons meat 
 
 170 tons milk 28 tons milk 
 
 Negligible quantity of sugar 2f tons sugar 
 
46 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 The British farmer feeds from 45 to 50 persons 
 per 100 acres, while the German farmer feeds 
 from 70 to 75. 
 
 The comparative value of the produce per acre 
 of British and Belgian land, which closely resembles 
 it as far as natural fertility is concerned, is said to 
 be as 19 : 80, so that the British farmer appears to 
 be very much behind the Continental farmer in 
 extracting money from the soil. The explanation 
 of the greater productivity of the German farm 
 becomes clearly apparent when the consumption 
 of artificial fertilisers is examined. This is shown 
 in the following table. 
 
 TABLE XII. 
 
 Average Consumption of Fertilisers per Acre. 
 
 POTASH NITROGENOUS 
 
 FERTILISERS. FERTILISERS. 
 
 Germany. . . 10-68 Ib. 7-21 Ib. 
 
 France . . . 0-71 3-65 
 
 United Kingdom . 0-09 ,, 2-22 ,, 
 
 It is said that Germany imports about ten times 
 as much Chilian nitrate as the United Kingdom, 
 and one-third of all the nitrate exported is consumed 
 by Germany alone ; hence it is hardly surprising 
 that the yield per acre of German farms has nearly 
 doubled in thirty years. 
 
 The unit consumption of wheat in the United 
 Kingdom has not appreciably increased since 1898. 
 In the decade 1891-1900 the consumption per head 
 of population was 5*9 bushels, while in 1901-10 it 
 had risen to 6*0 bushels. The percentage of supplies 
 imported was 76 in the former and 80 in the latter 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 47 
 
 period. It is worth noticing that the corresponding 
 figures for France and Germany are as follows : 
 
 TABLE XIII. 
 
 Consumption per head Percentage of supplies 
 
 in bushels. imported. 
 
 1891-1900. 1901-10. 1891-1900. 1901-10. 
 
 France 8-1 7-8 n 3 
 
 Germany . 2-9 3-1 27 36 
 
 These data have been obtained from a valuable 
 paper on the " Statistical Study of Wheat Cultiva- 
 tion and Trade, 1881-1910," by Dr. T. F. Anstead, 
 appearing in the Geographical Journal for August 
 and September, 1913. 
 
 It is noteworthy that of the whole world produc- 
 tion of wheat only n per cent, is exported, and of 
 this amount the United Kingdom imports over 35 
 per cent. We grow only 20 per cent, of our total 
 consumption. The average yield per acre in the 
 United Kingdom rose to 28 bushels in 1901-10, 
 while during the same period in the German Empire 
 the rise was from 19 to 29 bushels per acre. The 
 average yield over the whole world amounts to only 
 13 bushels per acre, the regions giving the lowest 
 yields being parts of South America, Africa, Australia, 
 and Russia in Europe. When the percentages ex- 
 ported are carefully examined, it is found that if the 
 production of Germany, Russia, Austria, France, 
 and Serbia were reduced by 10 per cent., and that 
 of Belgium by 50 per cent., more than half the 
 exportable surplus would disappear, and Russia, for 
 example, would become an importer. 
 
 It was pointed out in the address that the area 
 
48 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 in the United Kingdom under corn crops in 1897 
 was roughly 8*35 million acres, of which 1*94 
 million acres were given to wheat, and, moreover, it 
 was shown that in order that we might be more 
 independent of imports for our bread supply the 
 total area devoted to corn crops would have to be 
 used for bread alone. According to recent estimates, 
 out of 47 million acres in Great Britain 8*5 millions, 
 would be required to grow all our breadstuffs, 
 which bears out the original statistics. In 1866 the 
 wheat area was 3-7 million acres, which in 1913 
 had fallen to r8. 
 
 The Report of the Royal Commission on the 
 Supply of Food and Raw Material in War Time 
 which appeared in 1905 dealt with the question 
 of our wheat supply, and laid stress upon the 
 shortage of freight which would undoubtedly follow 
 on the outbreak of hostilities. It was the opinion 
 of the majority of the Commission that supplies 
 would reach us in practically undiminished quanti- 
 ties, but naturally no allowance was made for the 
 reduction of the world's supply owing to the 
 deficiencies of the crops in the fighting area : the short- 
 age of male labour in the belligerent countries, the 
 diminution in the number of horses, and the difficulty 
 of getting agricultural implements and supplies of 
 manures must inevitably be contributory causes 
 to this decrease, which may wipe out half the 
 exportable surplus of wheat of the whole world. 
 But without taking into consideration this probable 
 deficiency the Report pointed out that the require- 
 ments of the Admiralty must give rise to a shortage 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 49 
 
 of freight, and as we now know, the devastations of 
 submarines have also seriously impaired our carrying 
 power. Various suggestions were made to remedy 
 the threatened failure of our wheat supply. For 
 example, it was thought that our stocks of wheat 
 might be very considerably increased by providing 
 warehouses for grain at our principal ports ; a 
 Government subsidy amounting to 6d. per quarter 
 per annum was to be given to these warehouses, 
 which would in return provide free storage for 
 wheat. A scheme of Government insurance was 
 also suggested against losses due to war. But the 
 difficulties of storing grain in large quantities and 
 at the same time preventing it from undergoing 
 deterioration are very considerable, and, moreover, 
 the purchase of it would necessarily force prices 
 up. Again, a suggestion has been made that all 
 the surplus wheat grown in the Empire should be 
 brought to the United Kingdom instead of to any 
 other importing country, but this would undoubtedly 
 place the Dominions in an unfavourable position 
 with regard to trade connections with other countries, 
 and, moreover, it must be remembered that the 
 harvests in Canada, Australia, and India, upon which 
 we should be dependent, are very variable. 
 
 The only remedy against which no objections can 
 be urged, although the difficulties of applying it 
 are great, is to grow more of our own wheat. When 
 the decline of wheat-growing in England is more 
 investigated some rather remarkable facts are brought 
 to light. For example, in 1801 there were 35^ acres 
 of wheat per 100 of population in England and 
 
 E 
 
THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 Wales, while in 1914 the acreage per 100 people 
 was reduced to 5. The quantities grown per head 
 of population had decreased from 8| to i\ bushels 
 in the same time. The following table, based upon 
 the statistics of the Board of Agriculture, gives the 
 areas under various crops, showing the relations 
 between the ten years average and the year 1915. 
 
 TABLE XIV. 
 
 
 Average of 
 ten years. 
 1905-1914. 
 
 1915. 
 
 Differences. 
 
 Actual. 
 
 Per cent 
 
 All crops and grass 
 Arable land . 
 Permanent grass 
 Wheat . 
 Potatoes 
 Small fruit 
 
 Acres. 
 27,280,740 
 H-356,799 
 15.923, 94 1 
 11,735.927 
 434.949 
 76,291 
 
 Acres. 
 27,053,100 
 10,965,707 
 16,087,393 
 2,170,170 
 463.399 
 74.187 
 
 Acres. 
 227,640 
 391,092 
 + 163.452 
 + 434,243 
 + 28,450 
 2,104 
 
 0-83 
 
 3-44 
 1-03 
 25-02 
 
 6-54 
 2-76 
 
 The actual crops produced in 1915 and 1913 are 
 compared in the following table, which shows the 
 increase or decrease of each. 
 
 TABLE XV. 
 
 Crops. 
 
 *9 1 5- 
 
 1913. 
 
 Increase or 
 decrease. 
 
 
 Tons. 
 
 Tons. 
 
 Tons. 
 
 Wheat 
 
 2,048,000 
 
 1,576,000 
 
 + 472,000 
 
 Barley 
 
 I,II2,OOO 
 
 1,580,000 
 
 468,000 
 
 Oats 
 
 3,148,000 
 
 2,930,000 
 
 + 218,000 
 
 Beans 
 
 2I2.OOO 
 
 204,000 
 
 + 8,000 
 
 Peas 
 
 67,000 
 
 9I,OOO 
 
 24,000 
 
 Potatoes 
 
 7,540,000 
 
 7,605,000 
 
 65,000 
 
 Turnips and s\\ edes 
 
 24,431,000 
 
 25,314,000 
 
 884,000 
 
 Mangold 
 
 9,696,000 
 
 9,276,000 
 
 + 420,000 
 
 Hay . 
 
 12,449,000 
 
 15.395,000 
 
 2,946,000 
 
 Hops . 
 
 13,000 
 
 13,000 
 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 51 
 
 The following diagram shows the actual crops of 
 wheat in the United Kingdom since 1881 (repre- 
 sented by the continuous line) and the fluctuations 
 in the ten years averages (shown by dotted line). 
 Geographical Journal, page 169. 
 
 PRODUCTION OP WHEAT IN THtf UNITED KINGDOM, 1881-1910. 
 
 With regard to the quantity of wheat imported 
 into the United Kingdom the Report of the Agri- 
 cultural Committee of the Tariff Commission pointed 
 out that " no other country shows so marked a 
 decline of agriculture ; no other country depends 
 to so large an extent upon importation from abroad 
 
 E 2 
 
52 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 for its food supply ; in no other country has the 
 balance between agriculture and manufacturing 
 industries been so completely disturbed to the 
 disadvantage of agriculture." 
 
 Italy, which comes next to us in the list of import- 
 ing nations, imports only one quarter against our 
 four-fifths of the total breadstuffs consumed. In 
 1901-10 the chief sources of supply were as 
 follows : 
 
 TABLE XVI. 
 
 MILLION BUSHKLS. 
 India . . 27 
 
 Canada 
 Australia . 
 United States . 
 Argentina . 
 Russia 
 Roumania 
 Austria-Hungary 
 
 26 
 
 15 
 
 68 
 
 34 
 
 29 
 
 3 
 i 
 
 Supplies are now drawn more from British sources 
 than was the case twenty years ago. It may be 
 pointed out that the decrease per cent, of imported 
 wheat, including flour, in the first twelve months 
 of war (1914-15) was 1*39 per cent, as compared 
 with the corresponding twelve months in 1913-14, 
 while the total weight of all foodstuffs imported 
 increased by about 0*2 per cent. 
 
 The chief causes of the reduction in the acreage 
 devoted to wheat in the United Kingdom appears 
 to be, first, that corn-growing requires more capital 
 than stock-raising or dairy-farming, and, secondly, 
 that it involves more risk. In a Report on the Agri- 
 cultural Output of Great Britain issued in 1912 by 
 the Board of Agriculture the gross yield of culti- 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 53 
 
 vated land (arable and grass) in Great Britain in 
 1908 was put at 4 i os. per acre. The average 
 yield of the corn crops comes to about 6 ros. per 
 acre, while from wheat alone the gross yield is 8 
 per acre. Thus wheat gives a very decidedly higher 
 yield than grass, even when the price per quarter 
 amounts, as in 1908, to only 325. Wheat-growing, 
 moreover, produces by-products bran, pollard, 
 middlings, etc. which enable pig-keeping to be 
 undertaken at a considerable profit, and farmers 
 are agreed that dairy-farming is actually more 
 profitable on arable than on grass land. On the 
 other hand, arable land requires more labour, 1 and 
 the price of wheat fluctuates to such an extent that 
 there is more uncertainty of profit in growing it 
 than in producing meat or milk. When the prices 
 per quarter of British corn are examined for the 
 years 1885-1914 it is found that the lowest it 
 touched was 22S. lod. in 1894, while it was up to 
 345. i id. in 1914, thus varying between wide limits. 
 Besides the risk of low prices, the farmer always 
 has the certainty of having to wait nearly a year for 
 his returns. 2 
 
 In his address to the Farmers' Club in December, 
 1914, the late Professor John Wrightson gave an 
 interesting analysis of the proportion of each county 
 in England under wheat. He showed that more 
 than half the wheat produced in England is grown 
 
 1 Even ten times as much, according to some estimates. 
 
 * Various suggestions have recently been put forward for arresting 
 the decline of agriculture, and more particularly of arable farming, 
 in Great Britain, and it is earnestly to be hoped that organised efforts 
 will at once be made in this direction. The establishment of co-opera- 
 tive small-holding colonies, of industrialised farms working under skilled 
 
54 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 in the twelve Eastern, South-Eastern, and East 
 Midland counties Beds, Berks, Cambridge, Lincoln, 
 Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent, Sussex, Hunts, Herts 
 and Northants which devote from one-fourth to 
 one-sixth of their total arable land to wheat, and may 
 be looked upon as doing their full share. The 
 defaulting counties are chiefly in the north and west, 
 which are equally suited to wheat-growing. Pro- 
 fessor Wrightson suggested the following practical 
 means of increasing our home wheat supply : 
 (i) Allotting about one-sixth of arable land to 
 wheat in the following eight counties Cornwall, 
 Devon, Yorks, Durham, Northumberland, Cumber- 
 land, Cheshire and Lancashire which would then be 
 giving the same proportion as in Bedford, Cambridge, 
 Essex and Herts. This would mean the addition 
 of 225,000 acres. (2) Reversion to the five-course 
 system in the remaining counties, which would give 
 an increase of 396,000 acres. (3) An increase of 
 the wheat area in Scotland might amount to 56,000 
 acres, and (4) a million acres might be deducted 
 from the English and Welsh oat areas. Thus the 
 total wheat area would be increased by 1,677,000 
 acres without touching permanent pasture. Further 
 increases could be obtained by breaking up perma- 
 nent grass land and by growing wheat twice in four- 
 course rotations. Many objections have been raised 
 against ploughing up pasture which has been proved 
 to be valuable for stock feeding, but the fact remains 
 
 management, and the establishment of secondary industries, such 
 as the manufacture of beet sugar, have all been shown, at any rate on 
 paper, to be practicable, while there is considerable scope for the 
 reclamation of unused and at present unprofitable lands. 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 55 
 
 that its productivity as available land would be at 
 least two or three times that as grass land, however 
 good. Although Professor Wrightson's figures and 
 suggestions are undoubtedly open to criticism, and, 
 moreover, he hardly attended to the question of 
 increasing the produce per acre by the freer use of 
 artificial fertilisers and by other means, there appears 
 to be no reasonable doubt that we could at any rate 
 very materially increase our wheat area without 
 prejudicing the growth of other foodstuffs. Other 
 factors, however, than the natural suitability of the 
 soil must obviously be taken into account when the 
 possibility of increasing our home supply is under 
 discussion. 
 
 An increase in the yield per acre depends very 
 largely upon the use of appropriate fertilisers, in 
 which the British farmer has undoubtedly shown 
 himself backward in the past. Although the produc- 
 tion of ammonium sulphate in 1914 very greatly 
 exceeded that of previous years, amounting to 
 421,000 tons, a large proportion of it was exported, 
 although it could have been used much more 
 advantageously in Great Britain. The exports 
 reached 250,000 tons in 1916, and this in spite of 
 the fact that the Sulphate of Ammonia Association 
 had spent large sums of money in proving the value 
 of the substance as a fertiliser. The position is the 
 more serious because only about 25 per cent, of the 
 amount of nitrate usually imported will reach this 
 country in 1916, so that it would appear that the 
 wheat crop is being most unwisely starved of its 
 principal food requirement. 
 
56 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 The British crop of 1916 has fallen considerably 
 below the average of the ten years 1906-15, although 
 other crops show that the season has on the whole 
 been remarkably productive. The world's wheat 
 crop in 1916 was only So' 2 per cent, of that of 1915 
 and 94*9 per cent, of the five years' average ; the 
 deficiency being chiefly due to the failure of the 
 crop in Canada and the United States. The need for 
 investigation and more widely spread education on 
 the subject of fertilisers is clearly evident ; important 
 work is now being done by botanists in studying the 
 question of the production of new and more profitable 
 varieties of wheat, and in this connection an artificial 
 method of causing the wheat plant to tiller (or 
 produce additional stems and roots) described by 
 the Rev. E. Seeley may be mentioned. A new 
 implement designed for the purpose is drawn along 
 the lines of seedlings when these have formed three 
 small blades. The tiller pushes earth from the ridges 
 to the furrows in such a way as practically to bury 
 the young plants. When these have again grown up 
 the process is repeated, and finally the soil is slightly 
 earthed up round the plants. The results are claimed 
 to be most satisfactory. A large increase is noted in 
 the number of ears of the tillered as compared with 
 a control crop, and also an increase in the average 
 length of the ears, amounting to about half an inch 
 with spring-sown wheat incompletely treated and 
 three-eighths of an inch with autumn-sown wheat 
 treated by the simplest method. The rooting is 
 much stronger, and thus the crop is prevented from 
 lying down in bad weather. 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 57 
 
 The farmer is obliged to consider the question 
 of selling price and cost before venturing to embark 
 upon an increased production of wheat in place of 
 other crops, and although the price now ruling 
 (785. per quarter December, 1916) would appear to 
 be extraordinarily favourable, it must not be forgotten 
 that the question is one of comparative and not of 
 absolute proceeds. If there is less risk and almost 
 as great a profit per acre to be expected from a field 
 of oats rather than wheat, the farmer, who has 
 suffered from low prices and a mistaken policy in 
 the past, is not unnaturally chary about displacing 
 the former in favour of the latter. The price he 
 gets for his wheat depends mainly upon the price 
 of imported corn, and it has been recognised that 
 the establishment of a fixed price would help to 
 keep the cost of the country's food supply at a 
 steady level. In the case of wheat this price has 
 been fixed at 6os. per quarter, and similar regula- 
 tions are to be made about other cereals and feeding- 
 stuffs. The cost of production necessarily differs 
 > very largely in different regions. All expenses have 
 materially increased, and some requisites such as 
 fertilisers and agricultural machinery are procurable 
 with difficulty. The labour problem has become 
 acute in many districts, and as yet very little organised 
 attempt has been made to solve it, so that the 
 prospects of the crop of 1917 in Great Britain are 
 gloomy. Owing to bad weather not more than three- 
 eighths of the usual area was sown in the autumn, 
 and although something can be done in the spring 
 towards making up the deficiency, it is computed 
 
58 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 that spring-sown wheat yields on an average only 
 20 to 24 bushels per acre, while from an average 
 autumn-sown crop 30 bushels may be expected. 
 Only certain varieties are suitable for spring sowing 
 such as Red Marvel, or April Bearded and 
 much loss may be incurred if the variety is not 
 judiciously selected. 
 
 Turning from the question of the wheat supply 
 in Great Britain to that of the whole world, it may 
 be pointed out that Professor Dickson in his Presi- 
 dential Address to the Geographical Section of the 
 British Association for the Advancement of Science 
 in 1913 estimated that the earth might be able to 
 supply permanently 1,000 million wheat-eaters if 
 the average yield was increased to 20 bushels per 
 acre. The average wheat harvest would have to 
 be 6,000 million bushels, whereas in the decade 
 1901-10 it amounted to 3,233 million bushels. This 
 last figure represents an increase of 1,322 million 
 bushels on the figures given in my Address for the 
 season 1897-98. The following table has been 
 compiled from statistics of the Board of Agriculture 
 and the Bulletins of the International Institute of 
 Agriculture. The figures are calculated from the 
 total wheat and rye crop, allowing 31 per cent, of 
 the crop for rye. 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 59 
 
 TABLE XVII. 
 
 Wheat Crop for the Year 1912-13. 
 
 
 
 MILLION 
 
 
 MILLION 
 
 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 Russia . 
 
 
 1,280 
 
 India 
 
 2 45 
 
 Germany 
 
 
 416 
 
 Australia 
 
 71 
 
 Austria-Hungary 
 France . 
 
 
 277 
 253 
 
 New Zealand 
 United States 
 
 4 
 531 
 
 Belgium . 
 
 
 24 
 
 Argentina 
 
 "5 
 
 Servia . 
 
 
 10 
 
 24 other countries 
 
 515 
 
 Italy . 
 
 
 135 
 
 
 
 United Kingdom 
 
 
 39 
 
 TOTAL . 
 
 4.065 
 
 Canada . 
 
 
 150 
 
 
 
 The average yield of wheat per acre in the decade 
 1901-10 for the different countries is shown in the 
 following table. When it is compared with Table IV. 
 page 10, it will be noticed that there is a decided 
 increase in yield, except in the cases of Denmark, 
 Roumania, and Argentina. In all probability the 
 return for 1896 for Denmark, which gave 40 bushels, 
 was somewhat exaggerated. 
 
 TABLE XVIII. 
 
 Average Yield of Wheat per Acre in 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 BUSHELS 
 
 Denmark . 
 
 
 
 35 
 
 Austria-Hungary 
 
 
 18 
 
 Belgium . 
 
 
 
 35 
 
 Roumania 
 
 
 
 17 
 
 Holland . 
 
 
 
 33 
 
 United States 
 
 
 
 *4 
 
 United Kingd( 
 
 >m 
 
 
 32 
 
 Italy. 
 
 
 
 13 
 
 New Zealand 
 
 
 
 3i 
 
 Argentina 
 
 
 
 ii 
 
 Germany 
 
 
 
 29 
 
 Australasia 
 
 
 
 ii 
 
 Scandinavia 
 
 
 
 27 
 
 Russia in Eurc 
 
 pe 
 
 
 10 
 
 France 
 
 
 
 20 
 
 Algeria 
 
 
 
 10 
 
 Canada , 
 
 
 
 19 
 
 India 
 
 
 
 ii 
 
 The discussion of the possibilities of largely 
 increasing the world's wheat supply occupied the 
 next part of the Address. With regard to the United 
 
60 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 States a very comprehensive study of the problem is 
 to be found in the Geographical Journal for April 
 and May, 1912 (" The Climatic Limits of Wheat 
 Cultivation, with Special Reference to North 
 America, 5 ' by Dr. Anstead). The main conclu- 
 sions which Dr. Anstead draws from his inquiry 
 into the limits of wheat cultivation set by climatic 
 conditions in North America are, first, that the total 
 acreage under wheat may be very greatly increased 
 by extension into the colder parts of Canada and 
 into the drier parts of Canada and the United 
 States, and, secondly, that more scientific methods 
 may greatly increase the yield per acre. He regards 
 it as quite possible that nearly 2,000 million bushels 
 may in the future be produced by almost equal 
 shares by the United States and Canada. But the 
 population of the United States will almost certainly 
 continue to increase rapidly, and the fear expressed 
 in the Address that the export of wheat from the 
 United States will cease seems likely to be realised. 
 The following table (reproduced from Dr. 
 Anstead 's paper in the Geographical Journal) shows 
 the percentage of the total harvest exported 
 in three decades, and it appears by no means im- 
 probable that in the not very far distant future the 
 United States may consume all its own wheat. 
 
 TABLE XIX. 
 
 "^ .Percentage of Harvest Exported from the United Stales. 
 
 1881-1890 . . . 27 
 1891-1900 ... 32 
 1901-1910 ... 19 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 61 
 
 In Russia the corresponding percentage has fallen 
 from 27 to 23 in the same period, and the proportion 
 is likely to continue to get smaller as the population 
 increases, and also the consumption per head. The 
 yield per acre increased from 8' 2 bushels in the 
 first period to 10 in the last. As yet, as I fore- 
 casted, there has been no direct export of wheat 
 from Siberia to other countries. With regard to 
 Canada the estimate of six million acres in the next 
 twelve years has been accurately fulfilled, while 
 the percentage of harvest exported has risen to 38. 
 The following table shows the actual increase. 
 
 TABLE XX. 
 
 DOMINION OF CANADA. 
 
 
 Area 
 
 Produce 
 
 Net Exports. 
 
 Consumption. 
 
 Period. 
 
 Sown 
 with 
 wheat. 
 
 Per 
 acre. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Re- 
 quired 
 as seed 
 
 Wheat 
 and 
 flour. 
 
 Per- 
 cent- 
 age of 
 harvest 
 
 Per- 
 centage 
 of flour 
 
 Total 
 (as 
 
 food) 
 
 Per head 
 
 
 Million 
 Acres 
 
 Bushels 
 
 Million 
 , bushels 
 
 Million 
 bushels 
 
 Million 
 
 bushels 
 
 ex- 
 ported 
 
 exports 
 
 Million 
 bushels 
 
 Bushels 
 
 1881-90 
 
 2'3 
 
 16 
 
 38 
 
 3 
 
 2 
 
 7 
 
 O. 
 
 33 
 
 7'2 
 
 l8gi-OO 
 
 3'i 
 
 18 
 
 55 
 
 4 
 
 13 
 
 24 
 
 20 
 
 33 
 
 7'3 
 
 1901-10 
 
 5'9 
 
 19 
 
 no 
 
 9 
 
 42 
 
 3 
 
 19 
 
 59 
 
 9'4 
 
 As before stated, a great extension of the area 
 under wheat in Canada may be expected in the 
 future, but the estimate of 500,000,000 acres of 
 pr6fitable wheat land, spoken of in the Address, 
 remains, and will remain, unrealised. Austria- 
 Hungary in the decade 1901-10 was forced to import 
 i per cent, of her total supplies, while in 1881-90 
 
62 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 she exported 7 per cent. The prophecy that she 
 would soon enter the ranks of importing nations was 
 fulfilled perhaps sooner than was expected in 1898. 
 Germany in 1901-10 imported 36 per cent, of her 
 supplies against 16 per cent, in 1881-90. With 
 regard to Argentina the prophecy made in the 
 Address has not been altogether fulfilled, although 
 the acreage has been doubled as forecasted. There 
 are indications, however, that both the acreage and 
 the yield per acre may be very considerably in- 
 creased. The decline in the wheat harvest in India 
 which was observed in 1891-1900 ceased, and there 
 was an increase in 1901-10, the percentage exported 
 again reaching its old level. 
 
 The general conclusion which may be drawn 
 from these data appears to be that the extension 
 of the wheat-growing area is nearing its limits and 
 more intensive cultivation must be the means to 
 ward off the crisis. 
 
 The possibility of raising the average yield of 
 wheat per acre over the whole cultivated area at 
 present amounting to only 13 bushels, while the 
 highest obtained in any country is about 35 bushels 
 (although yields up to 50 bushels have been obtained 
 in this country, and it is said that 30 quarters may 
 be obtained by hand cultivation) depends mainly 
 upon the use of artificial fertilisers, especially 
 nitrogenous compounds, and careful inquiry must 
 be made into our available sources of such com- 
 pounds, for which there is a rapidly increasing 
 demand, and not for agricultural purposes only. 
 As I pointed out in 1898, the most important source 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 63 
 
 of supply is Chile saltpetre, the export of which is 
 shown in the following table. 
 
 TABLE XXI. 
 
 Export of Chile Saltpetre. 
 
 1830 
 1850 
 1890 
 1900 
 1902 
 
 1,000 tons 
 
 25,000 ,, 
 
 1,000,000 ,, 
 
 1,454,000 
 
 1,379,000 
 
 1904 
 1906 
 1908 
 1910 
 1911 
 
 1,497,000 tons 
 1,732,000 
 2,052,000 
 2,324,000 
 2,449,000 ,, 
 
 The export fell off largely in 1914 and the first six 
 months of 1915, but then increased again very con- 
 siderably. The total production and export from 
 1913 to 1916 is shown in the following table, taken 
 from a bulletin of the International Institute of 
 Agriculture. 
 
 TABLE XXII. 
 
 Summary of Production and Trade of Chilean Nitrate. 
 
 
 1916. 
 
 First six months. 
 
 1915. 
 
 1914. 
 
 1913. 
 
 
 Metric Tons. 
 
 Production . 
 Export . 
 Consignments for 
 consumption 
 Visible stocks 
 
 1,488,792 
 1,356,029 
 
 *73o,4i7 
 (1)919,102 
 (30 June) 
 
 I.763A39 
 2,031,014 
 
 *86o,778 
 
 *99i,34 
 (31 Dec.) 
 
 2,464,427 
 1,847,586 
 
 2,248,976 
 *i, 190,078 
 (31 Dec.) 
 
 2.773.552 
 2.739.530 
 
 2,556,973 
 1,772,161 
 (31 Dec.) 
 
 * Incomplete data, (i) Chilean Coast only. 
 
 It is difficult to form a trustworthy estimate of 
 the amount still available, but at any rate it is certain 
 
64 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 that sooner or later the beds must be exhausted. 
 Large quantities of ammonium compounds are 
 obtained by the distillation of coal, the world's 
 production in 1913 (the last year for which complete 
 data are available) being 1,389,520 metric tons, and 
 the nitrogen contained in peat has recently been 
 recovered and utilised in the form of an ammonium 
 salt by a process which will be described later. All 
 these sources of supply, however, will in the not 
 very far distant future be insufficient to meet the 
 constantly increasing demand for combined nitrogen, 
 and the solution of the nitrogen problem is to be 
 found in the fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, which 
 since the time of my Address has been effected upon 
 a commercially successful scale. The processes 
 which have been perfected may be classified as 
 follows : 
 
 (i) Those in which nitrogen and oxygen combine 
 directly. 
 
 (ii) Those in which nitrogen is fixed by means of 
 carbides. 
 
 (iii) The fixation of nitrogen by metals. 
 
 (iv) The preparation of synthetic ammonia. 
 
 (i) The Direct Union of Nitrogen and Oxygen. 
 
 The union of nitrogen and oxygen takes place 
 with absorption of heat, and hence can be effected 
 only if the temperature is kept high. In the Birke- 
 land and Eyde process the oldest employed com- 
 mercially an alternating arc flame is made to assume 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 65 
 
 a circular shape by the action of an electro-magnet. 
 Air is led into the flame, and the exit gases are 
 rapidly cooled from a temperature of 5000-6000 F. 
 to 1 800- 1 900 F. The electrodes are made of copper 
 tubing, and are cooled by a current of water passing 
 through them. The nitric oxide produced is allowed 
 to combine with free oxygen to produce nitrogen 
 peroxide, which passes up an absorption tower, where 
 the greater part is converted into nitric acid by a 
 stream of water ; the residual NO is absorbed in 
 other towers by means of a solution of caustic soda, 
 sodium nitrite being thus produced. The nitric 
 acid obtained in the first tower is converted into 
 calcium nitrate and sold as Norwegian saltpetre, 
 or into ammonium nitrate. The SchOnherr and 
 Pauling processes resemble Birkeland and Eyde's in 
 essentials, but the arc is respectively circular and 
 fan-shaped. The direct union of nitrogen and oxygen 
 can also be brought about by burning gas under 
 pressure, small quantities of nitric oxide being thus 
 produced. In the Beudes process natural methane 
 gas is used for the purpose, while in the Hausser 
 process coke oven gas is exploded under pressure 
 with oxygen, giving a small yield of nitric oxide. 
 The gases are first compressed separately, passed 
 into a bomb, exploded, and immediately cooled. 
 The consumption of power is considerably smaller 
 than in any process involving the use of electricity, 
 and apparently it will be found possible to increase 
 the yield materially by adding a larger proportion of 
 oxygen to the air. The process will enable an 
 otherwise wasted surplus of coke to be turned to 
 
 F 
 
66 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 good account, and natural gas or crude oil can be 
 substituted for coke oven gas. 
 
 (ii) Fixation of Nitrogen by Carbides. 
 
 When nitrogen gas, obtained from the atmosphere 
 by the Hinde or other process, is passed over heated 
 calcium carbide, calcium cyanamide, NC.NCa, is 
 produced, carbon being separated. The carbide, 
 made from lime and Welsh anthracite, is first ground 
 in air-tight vessels, and screened and graded. The 
 nitrogen gas is absorbed at a temperature of about 
 800-900 C., much heat being evolved in the process. 
 The product, which contains about 60 per cent, of 
 calcium cyanamide, is ground, and sold under the 
 name of nitrolin. It can either be used directly as 
 a fertiliser or can be converted into ammonia by the 
 action of superheated steam. This process requires 
 a cheap source of electric power, and has been worked 
 successfully in Norway, where water power is 
 abundant and cheap. Since certain objectionable 
 qualities attached to the original product have been 
 removed, nitrolin has taken its place as a valuable 
 nitrogenous fertiliser. 
 
 (iii) Fixation of Nitrogen by Metals. 
 
 A process which has been successfully worked in 
 France is that due to Dr. Serpek, in which raw 
 bauxite (natural aluminium oxide containing about 
 20 per cent, of iron oxide) is first reduced in an 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 67 
 
 electric furnace, yielding a ferro-aluminium alloy. 
 This is then heated to a temperature of about 
 1800 C. in an atmosphere of nitrogen, when 
 aluminium nitrite is formed. When this is boiled 
 with water or treated with steam under pressure it 
 gives up all its nitrogen in the form of ammonia, 
 and pure alumina, which can be used for the prepara- 
 tion .of the metal, is obtained as a highly valuable 
 by-product. Baryta can also be used for the fixation 
 of nitrogen, and in presence of carbon it has been 
 found to absorb the gas at a lower temperature than 
 alumina. The barium cyanide thus obtained readily 
 gives up its nitrogen as ammonia, and baryta is 
 regenerated. This process has as yet hardly passed 
 the experimental stage, but it seems probable that 
 it may be worked on a commercially successful scale 
 in the future. 
 
 (iv) The Preparation of Synthetic Ammonia. 
 
 It has long been known that in certain circum- 
 stances nitrogen and hydrogen will unite when a 
 spark is passed through a mixture of the two gases ; 
 the amount of ammonia produced is exceedingly 
 small, and the action is reversible. The proportion 
 of ammonia can be greatly increased by compressing 
 the mixed gases, and a comparatively low temperature 
 is favourable to the reaction. In the Haber process, 
 which has been worked successfully on a large scale 
 by the Badische Anilin- und Soda-Fabrik, the two 
 gases are induced to combine by the presence of a 
 catalyst the exact nature of which is at present 
 
 F 2 
 
68 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 not known. Osmium, uranium, and iron have all 
 been experimented with for the purpose, but many 
 failures (caused by the poisoning of the catalyst) 
 were experienced before success was finally achieved. 
 The mixed gases, which have to be obtained in a 
 very pure state, are subjected to pressures of from 
 150 to 200 atmospheres, and are passed over the 
 catalyst heated electrically to a temperature of almost 
 500 C. The exit gases are passed through a freezing 
 mixture, by means of which the ammonia is liquefied, 
 and the uncombined nitrogen and hydrogen are then 
 again passed over the catalyst. The ammonia can 
 be converted either into ammonium sulphate or 
 into nitric acid by oxidation. The advantages of 
 the Haber process are many, the chief being that it 
 does not require a cheap source of electricity. It 
 has recently been very rapidly developed in Germany, 
 the yield, according to some estimates, being already 
 about 300,000 tons of ammonia per annum, or 
 1000 per cent, of the yield in 1913. The output in 
 1917 will probably reach 500,000 tons. The suc- 
 cessful working of the process has enabled Germany 
 to produce the requisite quantity of nitrogenous 
 fertiliser, and has also provided some of the vast 
 amount of explosives she has used. The details of 
 the Haber process are kept secret, and the German 
 Government is backing the enterprise in the hope 
 of being able in the future to control the market in 
 nitrogenous substances. 
 
 A method of fixing atmospheric nitrogen dis- 
 covered by Thorssell, and depending only upon 
 chemical reactions, has recently been worked in 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 69 
 
 Sweden, but no details of the process are available. 
 The products are ammonia, ammonium nitrate, 
 cyanide compounds, saltpetre, and sulphuric acid, 
 and the Swedish company will shortly be able to 
 place them upon the market. 
 
 The impossibility of removing by mechanical 
 means the water present in natural peat has 
 hitherto militated against the employment of peat 
 for obtaining producer gas and the recovery of 
 the ammonia from it. This difficulty was over- 
 come in Germany by an electrical method. It 
 was discovered that the water is present in the 
 colloidal state in peat slime or in very wet bogs, and 
 consequently when a high voltage current is passed 
 through cataphoresis occurs, and a firm mass of 
 peat is obtained. A process for the same purpose 
 has also been satisfactorily worked in Scotland. 
 The wet peat is passed through iron tubes heated 
 to a moderate temperature, and the colloidal com- 
 pound is thus decomposed. The mass is then 
 pressed into cakes, which can be used for gas pro- 
 duction. The nitrogen can thus be recovered in the 
 form of ammonium sulphate. 
 
 In France, cyanamide is for the present reserved 
 exclusively for Government purposes, and none will 
 be available for agriculture next spring. The output 
 of Norwegian nitrate of lime has also been much 
 reduced. The following table (from a bulletin of 
 the International Institute of Agriculture) gives the 
 imports and exports of nitrogenous fertilisers since 
 
THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 TABLE XXIII. 
 
 Imports and Exports of Synthetic Nitrogenous Fertilisers : (a) nitrate of 
 ammonia ; (b) nitrate of lime (Norwegian) ; (c) cyanamide. 
 
 Country. 
 
 Years. 
 
 First six months. 
 
 m. 
 
 1914. 
 
 1913- 
 
 1916. 
 
 W 
 
 1914. 
 
 Metric tons. 
 
 Import. 
 
 Germany 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 78,257 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 31,038 
 
 Denmark 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 5,o66 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 France (6 and c) 
 
 2,458 
 
 3,809 
 
 10,010 
 
 4.914 
 
 1,426 
 
 1,531 
 
 Russia . 
 
 o 
 
 1,360 
 
 2,326 
 
 o 
 
 
 
 11,360 
 
 Sweden (a) . 
 
 
 
 101 
 
 62 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 ., (b) . 
 
 o 
 
 3 
 
 24 
 
 o 
 
 (") 
 
 (ii) 
 
 Canada (a) . 
 
 *437 
 
 *97 
 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 United States 
 
 
 
 14^891 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 Algeria (c) . 
 
 4 
 
 '487 
 
 1,091 
 
 o 
 
 
 
 438 
 
 Egypt (c) . 
 
 
 
 771 
 
 971 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (ii) 
 
 Export. 
 
 Germany 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 30,463 
 
 (i) 
 
 (i) 
 
 22,440 
 
 France (6 and c) 
 
 64 
 
 373 
 
 839 
 
 109 
 
 o 
 
 320 
 
 Norway (a) . 
 
 26,459 
 
 11,959 
 
 9,107 
 
 20,407 
 
 9,177 
 
 6,oii 
 
 a (b) . 
 
 38,168 
 
 75.176 
 
 79,927 
 
 27,710 
 
 22,742 
 
 31,200 
 
 ,. (c) 
 
 24.787 
 
 13.720 
 
 22,111 
 
 12,505 
 
 13,476 
 
 io,355 
 
 Sweden (c) . 
 
 16,553 
 
 4.755 
 
 16,913 
 
 9,487 
 
 
 (ii) 
 
 (i) Data not available, 
 (ii) Corresponding statistics unavailable. 
 * Twelve months ending 3ist March. 
 
 The foregoing brief accounts of recent work on 
 the fixation of atmospheric nitrogen show how the 
 discoveries of the chemist and the engineer have 
 been applied to the solution of the problem of the 
 raising of the world's average of wheat production 
 per acre. The extension of scientific knowledge will 
 no doubt lead to a wider use of artificial fertilisers 
 by the British farmer, who is at present credited 
 with a reluctance to take the fullest advantage of 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 71 
 
 them. Much research work is waiting to be done on 
 the most economical methods of using manures ; 
 thus the relationship between the efficiency of 
 fertilising action and rotation has yet to be thoroughly 
 elucidated, and the question of the sickness of the 
 soil requires investigation in detail. 
 
 There is need also of systematically spreading a 
 knowledge of the possibilities of increasing yield by 
 the judicious use of fertilisers, and of the limits set 
 by natural conditions to their favourable action. 
 The following table (from " Soils and Manures," 
 by Dr. E. J. Russell) shows striking differences of 
 yield on good and poor wheat soils, and the effects 
 of manuring are apparent, - although the naturally 
 good soil always has the advantage over the poorer 
 soil. 
 
 TABLE XXIV. 
 
 Yield of Wheat from Various Soils. Bushels per Acre. 
 
 
 Good wheat 
 
 Soil less suited to wheat, 
 
 
 soil. 
 
 Rothamsted. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Artificial 
 
 
 Sussex brick 
 earth. 
 
 Un- 
 manured. 
 
 Dung. 
 
 manures. 
 Very heavy 
 
 
 
 
 
 dressing. 
 
 Good years : 1885 
 
 54 
 
 15 
 
 40 
 
 37 
 
 1887 
 
 50 
 
 15 
 
 35 
 
 35 
 
 1899 
 
 53 
 
 12 
 
 43 
 
 59 
 
 Bad years : 1879 
 
 32 
 
 5 
 
 16 
 
 21 
 
 1892 
 
 27 
 
 9 
 
 33 
 
 38 
 
 Average of 5 years : 
 
 
 
 
 
 1900-1904 
 
 44 
 
 10 
 
 33 
 
 39 
 
 1905-1909 
 
 42 
 
 13 
 
 38 
 
 41 
 
 There is necessarily a limit to the beneficial 
 results obtained by manuring, and the application 
 
72 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 of fertilisers above and beyond this limit may not 
 merely be useless but positively harmful ; thus it 
 is known that the use of too liberal a quantity of 
 nitrogenous manure renders the crop more liable 
 to disease owing to the thinning of the cell- walls. 
 A series of field trials carried out in Ireland con- 
 clusively proved that a mixture of artificial fertilisers 
 and farmyard manure gives the most satisfactory 
 results. No practical method of storing farmyard 
 manure so that the loss of ammoniacal nitrogen is 
 reduced to a minimum or altogether eliminated 
 has yet been discovered, although it is known that 
 storage in perfectly air-tight tanks has the desired 
 effect, while providing adequate shelter from the 
 weather for the manure heap has decidedly bene- 
 ficial results. The question of the loss of nitrogen 
 has been studied recently by Dr. Russell and Mr. 
 Appleyard. Two manured crops were selected, 
 and one was allowed to lie fallow, while the other 
 was cropped, and the amount of nitrate in the soil 
 was determined at intervals of ten days. It was 
 found that in both plots accumulation of nitrate 
 occurred up to the middle of September, the fallow 
 plot then containing per 18 in. depth of soil 170 Ib. 
 of nitric nitrogen per acre. The fields then began 
 to lose nitrate, until in February the fallow plot 
 contained only 50 Ib. per acre, having lost an amount 
 equivalent to 7 cwt. of sodium nitrate. The cropped 
 plot in the same time lost as much nitrogen as is 
 contained in 24 Ib. of wheat and the corresponding 
 quantity of straw. The loss on the fallow plot 
 might have been very considerably lessened by 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 73 
 
 planting a quick-growing crop and then feeding it 
 off or ploughing it in, and these experiments clearly 
 show the value of spring dressings of nitrogenous 
 manures. Sodium nitrate can advantageously be 
 used for wheat at the rate of i cwt. per acre, and 
 is best applied as a top dressing in two or three 
 instalments. Calcium nitrate closely resembles 
 sodium nitrate and appears to be preferable for 
 heavy soils. The calcium nitrate recently put upon 
 the market is a decided improvement upon the first 
 samples, which were very hygroscopic and trouble- 
 some to use. Calcium cyanide or nitrolin has the 
 advantage of being insoluble in water, and is hence 
 not readily washed out of the soil. It is slowly 
 decomposed by the bacteria in the soil, giving off 
 ammonia, and hence it is best applied at the time 
 of sowing, to give time for the decomposition to 
 occur. Ammonium sulphate can be used at the 
 rate of about i cwt. to the acre, and the Rothamsted 
 experiments showed that it is rather better manure 
 for barley than sodium nitrate, giving an equal yield 
 and a better quality. For wheat sodium nitrate is 
 generally preferable. Ammonium sulphate has a 
 tendency to make the soil acid when applied alone, 
 and thus hinder plant growth ; hence it may con- 
 veniently be used with sodium nitrate, which has 
 the opposite effect. Sodium nitrate sinks more 
 readily into the soil, and thus encourages deep 
 roots in the plant. The comparative effects of 
 different nitrogenous manures are shown in the 
 following table. 
 
74 
 
 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 TABLE XXV. 
 
 ROTHAMSTED '. Yield per Acre, 1909-1912. 
 
 
 
 
 Mangolds 
 
 
 Barley, 1909 
 
 Wheat, 1910 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 1911 
 
 1912 
 
 
 Little Hoos 
 
 Little Hoos 
 
 L. Hoos 
 
 L. Knot 
 Wood 
 
 
 Grain 
 
 Straw 
 
 Grain 
 
 Straw 
 
 
 
 
 Bush. 
 
 Lbs. 
 
 Bush. 
 
 Lbs. 
 
 Tons. 
 
 Tons. 
 
 No Nitrogen 
 
 28*7 
 
 2,619 
 
 15-4 
 
 1,526 
 
 9-8 
 
 H-5 
 
 Nitrate of Soda . 
 
 48-1 
 
 3,882 
 
 27-0 
 
 3,760 
 
 *5'4 
 
 18-4 
 
 Sulphate of Ammonia 
 Cyanamide . 
 
 49-1 
 45-2 
 
 3.517 
 3,976 
 
 2 4 -6 
 22-4 
 
 2,964 
 
 2,343 
 
 n-8 
 ii-i 
 
 
 Nitrate of Lime . 
 
 46-2 
 
 4.449 
 
 20-6 
 
 3.6i8 
 
 12-7 
 
 18-4 
 
 The time is ripe for an exhaustive stocktaking 
 of the food resources of the British Empire and for 
 the planning of a scheme for developing agriculture 
 upon a scientific basis. It is realised at last that 
 the production of our own food supply is a matter 
 of the greatest moment. Events have shown us that 
 it is not a question of the profit to be obtained by 
 importing wheat or growing, as some of my critics 
 seemed to imagine. Increased agricultural activity 
 has a much wider significance for the welfare of the 
 nation than as a factor, important though it is, in 
 adding to the national wealth, and intimately con- 
 nected with the problem are economic questions of 
 labour, distribution of population, and transport. 
 The detailed discussion of these does not lie within 
 the scope of this book, but the public is showing signs 
 of awakening from its state of apathy concerning 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 75 
 
 agricultural science, and recent events have tended 
 to direct our attention to questions of the world's 
 resources as well as our own. A heavy responsi- 
 bility rests upon the scientific man of the present 
 generation, of which the student of one hundred 
 years ago had barely an inkling. Then the earth's 
 stores of latent energy appeared to be illimitable; 
 now we realise that the exhaustion of some of them 
 is within sight, and that all our faculties must be 
 turned to the problems of utilising them most 
 economically, and at the same time spreading abroad 
 knowledge and a heightened sense of the importance 
 of improving the condition of agriculture in our own 
 country by the employment of more scientific 
 methods. 
 
 The value of the articles by Mr. C. Wood Davis 
 and the Hon. John Hyde, that appeared in an earlier 
 edition appears to be justified, and I propose to 
 supplement some of their statistics by more recent 
 data and to make some comments, based upon 
 fresh work, on their statements and conclusions. 
 
 The rapid increase in the world's bread-eaters 
 has continued in the twentieth century, and the 
 increase in the area devoted to wheat-growing has 
 not by any means kept pace with it. The total 
 wheat area in the world in the decade 1881-1890 
 was estimated at 192 million acres, while in the 
 decade 1901-10 it has risen to 242 million acres, 
 an increase of 26 per cent. The increase in North 
 America in the same periods was from 40*6 to 54*3 
 million acres, or 33*7 per cent., but in these figures 
 no account is taken of any diminution in the area 
 
7 6 
 
 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 devoted to the growth of any other breadstuff such 
 as rye. The latest figures show a very decided 
 increase over those given by Mr. Wood Davis, 
 which is also the case with the wheat areas of Asia 
 and South America, as shown in the following 
 table : 
 
 TABLE XXVI. 
 
 Wheat-bearing Areas. 
 
 
 0) 
 
 <ii) 
 
 (iii) 
 
 Increase 
 
 Increase 
 
 
 1883-4 
 
 1898-9 
 
 1901-10 
 
 (ii) over (i) 
 
 (iii) over (ii) 
 
 Million Areas 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Canada 
 
 2-4 
 
 3'2 
 
 5'9 
 
 0-8 
 
 2-7 
 
 Australasia . 
 
 3'2 
 
 4'5 
 
 5'9 
 
 I'3 
 
 1*4 
 
 Argentina 
 
 i-4 
 
 6-1 
 
 I2-O 
 
 4'7 
 
 5'9 
 
 Siberia 
 
 2-0 
 
 3'3 
 
 14-3 
 
 1*3 
 
 II-O 
 
 * Russia in Asia. 
 
 This table seems to indicate that the increase in 
 area is nearing its limit, which, however, does not 
 appear to have been reached yet. When the quantity 
 exported from the United States is investigated a 
 very disquieting decrease is brought to light. Thus, 
 while in 1881-90 the percentage of the harvest 
 exported was 27, and in 1891-1900 it had risen to 
 32 per cent., it fell in the following decade 1901-10 
 to 19 per cent., showing clearly that the time is not 
 far distant when the United States will consume 
 nearly, if not quite, all her own harvest. In Canada 
 in the same periods the percentage exported shows 
 an enormous increase. 
 
 The part taken by America in supplying the world 
 with wheat is adequately and very judiciously dis- 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 77 
 
 cussed by the Hon. John Hyde, whose estimates and 
 conclusions have been remarkably borne out by 
 facts. The average harvest for the Dominion of 
 Canada and the United States in the decade 1901-10 
 was 767 million bushels, while in 1914 it amounted 
 to 1,051 million bushels. Enormous as the increase 
 is, it must be remembered that the total consumption 
 in the United States in 1901-10 amounted to nearly 
 146 per cent, of that in 1891-1900, and thus appears 
 to be approximately keeping pace with the increase 
 of production. 
 
 The climatic limits of wheat cultivation, with 
 special reference to North America, have been 
 discussed very comprehensively by Dr. T. F. 
 Anstead in the Geographical Journal for April and 
 May, 1912, in an article to which allusion has already 
 been made. The total amount of heat required by 
 any plant to attain full development depends upon 
 two factors : (i) The temperature to which it is 
 exposed ; (ii) the time over which this temperature 
 extends. The accumulated temperature in day 
 degrees has been determined by accurate observa- 
 tions, a day degree being the number of degrees by 
 which the mean temperature exceeds 5 C. for a 
 period of one day. In South-East England the 
 accumulated temperature for wheat ripening has 
 been found to be about 1 100 C. When the accumu- 
 lated temperature required in other regions is 
 investigated it is found that it bears a relationship 
 to the mean temperature of the region, and it is also 
 influenced by another factor, the mean duration of 
 light. If the " index number," i.e., the sum of the 
 
 , 
 
7 8 
 
 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 mean duration of darkness and the mean tempera- 
 ture, is taken, a striking relationship is obtained. 
 This is shown in the following table and diagram 
 (from the Geographical Journal, Vol. xxxix, No. 4, 
 pages 356 and 357). 
 
 TABLE XXVII. 
 
 Locality. 
 
 Accumu- 
 lated 
 tempera- 
 ture. 
 
 Mean 
 tempera- 
 ture. 
 
 Duration of light 
 
 Duration 
 of 
 darkness 
 Mean. 
 
 Index of 
 mean 
 tempera- 
 ture 
 plus mean 
 darkness. 
 
 Total. 
 
 Mean. 
 
 
 deg. C. 
 
 deg. C. 
 
 hrs. 
 
 hrs. 
 
 hrs. 
 
 
 Copper Centre, Alaska 
 
 734 
 
 12-6 
 
 I.77I 
 
 18-4 
 
 5-6 
 
 18-2 
 
 Sitka, Alaska 
 
 8 4 I 
 
 II'I 
 
 2,232 
 
 16-3 
 
 7'7 
 
 18-8 
 
 Dunvegan, Canada 
 
 93 
 
 12-6 
 
 2,012 
 
 16-5 
 
 7'5 
 
 20- 1 
 
 Vermilion, Canada 
 
 948 
 
 13-5 
 
 1,898 
 
 17-0 
 
 7-0 
 
 20-5 
 
 Chippewyan, Canada . 
 
 974 
 
 12-9 
 
 2,030 
 
 16-5 
 
 7'5 
 
 20-4 
 
 Nappan, Canada . 
 
 ,093 
 
 14-7 
 
 ,676 
 
 15-0 
 
 9-0 
 
 23-7 
 
 South Vologda, Russia 
 
 ,100 
 
 16-0 
 
 .750 
 
 17*5 
 
 6-5 
 
 22-5 
 
 Agassiz, Canada . 
 
 ,120 
 
 M'3 
 
 ,879 
 
 J 5'4 
 
 8-6 
 
 22'9 
 
 Kostroma, Russia 
 
 .135 
 
 16-6 
 
 ,668 
 
 17-0 
 
 7-0 
 
 23-6 
 
 Ufa, Russia . 
 
 .157 
 
 16-3 
 
 ,684 
 
 16-5 
 
 7'5 
 
 23-8 
 
 Viatka, Russia 
 
 I 7 I 
 
 17-1 
 
 ,628 
 
 16-8 
 
 7-2 
 
 24'3 
 
 Fargo, U.S.A. 
 
 ,191 
 
 16-7 
 
 ,566 
 
 15-4 
 
 8-6 
 
 25-3 
 
 North Simbirsk, Russia 
 
 .251 
 
 17-8 
 
 ,628 
 
 16-6 
 
 7'4 
 
 25-2 
 
 Indian Head, Canada . 
 
 ,293 
 
 15-3 
 
 ,960 
 
 15-6 
 
 8'4 
 
 23-7 
 
 Bozeman, U.S.A. 
 
 ,293 
 
 15-4 
 
 ,887 
 
 15-0 
 
 9-0 
 
 24-4 
 
 Brandon, Canada 
 
 ,294 
 
 15-8 
 
 ,862 
 
 15-8 
 
 8-5 
 
 24-3 
 
 Poltava, Russia . 
 
 ,297 
 
 16-7 
 
 ,726 
 
 15-5 
 
 8-5 
 
 25-2 
 
 Ottawa, Canada . 
 
 ,33 
 
 I7'3 
 
 ,624 
 
 15-0 
 
 9-0 
 
 26-3 
 
 Don Territory, Russia. 
 
 .387 
 
 18-0 
 
 ,648 
 
 15-4 
 
 8-6 
 
 26-6 
 
 South Samara, Russia. 
 
 ,390 
 
 19-4 
 
 ,562 
 
 16-1 
 
 7.9 
 
 27-3 
 
 Veronezh, Russia 
 
 ,406 
 
 18-1 
 
 7 11 
 
 16-0 
 
 8-0 
 
 26-1 
 
 Bessarabia, Russia 
 
 .436 
 
 18-0 
 
 ,669 
 
 15-2 
 
 8-8 
 
 26-8 
 
 North Taurida, Russia 
 
 ,469 
 
 16-9 
 
 ,829 
 
 14-9 
 
 9-1 
 
 26-0 
 
 St. Paul, U.S.A. . 
 
 ,509 
 
 I7'3 
 
 ,813 
 
 14-9 
 
 9-1 
 
 26-4 
 
 S. Kherson, Russia 
 
 547 
 
 17-6 
 
 ,868 
 
 I5'2 
 
 8-8 
 
 26-4 
 
 From these results the following general statement 
 is deduced, the effects of summer pests being 
 neglected : " Wheat cultivation is possible at stations 
 where the degrees of accumulated temperature, 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 79 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 tory 
 
 
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 eron 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 rida 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 nbirs 
 
 Polta 
 
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 xVi 
 
 atka, 
 
 r J 
 
 Boze 
 Bran 
 
 man 
 don 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Nappan 
 
 xUfa 
 
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 X 
 
 India 
 
 n Hei 
 
 id 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 gass 
 
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 )wyan 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Sitka 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 C/p 
 
 ;rCe 
 
 nire 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 
 
 FIG. 3. DIAGRAM SHOWING THE RELATION BETWEEN THE ACCUMULATED 
 TEMPERATURES REQUIRED FOR WHEAT AND THE INDEX NUMBERS 
 OF MEAN TEMPERATURE PLUS MEAN DURATION OF DARKNESS 
 DURING THE PERIODS OF GROWTH. 
 
 which is experienced between the dates when the 
 mean temperature curve rises above 5 C. in spring 
 
8o THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 and descends to 10 C. in autumn, amount to the 
 number indicated by the straight line in the diagram 
 as that required under the conditions of mean 
 temperature and duration of light during the same 
 period at the respective stations." 
 
 The conclusions naturally apply only to known 
 breeds of wheat, but they are particularly valuable 
 as providing a means of forecasting the possibility 
 or otherwise of growing wheat in regions which 
 have not yet been used for the purpose. It appears 
 that the Canadian territory between Manitoba and 
 Lake Superior is too cold for wheat cultivation, and 
 thus separates the two great wheat-growing districts 
 of the Dominion. As regards the limits to wheat 
 cultivation set by rainfall, which is the conditioning 
 factor in the central and southern portions of North 
 America, it has been shown that the methods known 
 as dry farming and the use of drought-resisting 
 varieties have enabled the semi-arid regions to be 
 employed for wheat-growing. In countries in which 
 the climate is of the Mediterranean type, i.e., having 
 a relatively mild winter and rain in the cooler parts 
 of the year, a rainfall of 10 inches is sufficient, and 
 in specially favourable conditions one or even two 
 inches less may be enough. A mean annual rainfall 
 of ii inches is adequate over the northern portion 
 of the great plains of the United States. This means 
 to say that wheat cultivation may be extended into 
 the drier regions of both Canada and the United 
 States, and though the yield per acre may remain 
 less than in more favoured regions, it may, even so, 
 exceed the average at present obtained. 
 
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WHEAT PROBLEM 81 
 
 Although modern agricultural methods have 
 possibly deferred the time when the wheat problem 
 becomes of extreme urgency, the fact still remains 
 that sooner or later a deficit in wheat must arise 
 which will be met only by the more extended manu- 
 facture and use of artificial fertilisers of a nitrogenous 
 nature. " Starvation will be averted through the 
 laboratory," and the intelligent application of the 
 results obtained by the work of the botanist and 
 chemist will provide an assured future for the 
 millions of bread-eaters in the world. Eighteen 
 years ago I wrote, " We eagerly spend millions to 
 protect our coasts and commerce ; and millions 
 more on ships, explosives, guns and men ; but we 
 omit to take necessary precautions to supply ourselves 
 with the very first and supremely important munition 
 of war- food." The vast amount which this expendi- 
 ture has now reached was then utterly unforeseen, 
 and had I prophesied that it would touch 2,000 
 millions per annum the outcry of my critics would 
 probably have been even louder than it was. It is 
 to be hoped that now at last the necessity of providing 
 ourselves with the first munition of war is under- 
 stood, and a workable and economically sound scheme 
 for the purpose will be organised. 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 
 
 BY SIR HENRY REW, K.C.B. 
 
 THE meeting of the British Association in 1898 
 is memorable by reason of the fact that the Presi- 
 dential Address was devoted to an examination of 
 the problem of the future of wheat cultivation in 
 the world. The argument which Sir William Crookes 
 then developed attracted widespread attention, and, 
 as commonly happens, it became a good deal dis- 
 torted in public discussion. One or two arresting 
 statements which he placed in the forefront of his 
 Address, such as " All civilised nations stand in 
 deadly peril of not having enough to eat," created 
 an impression that a fiat of doom had been pro- 
 nounced by a leader of science, and that the world 
 was destined to come to an end within half a century 
 by a process of lingering starvation. The British 
 public, however, while they receive prophecies of 
 disaster with avidity, forget them with equal alacrity. 
 One reason, indeed, why the Briton is a psychological 
 enigma to friends and foes alike, is that he constantly 
 predicts disaster and never believes in it. He is a 
 confirmed pessimist in words, and an inveterate 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 83 
 
 optimist in deeds. The warning which Sir William 
 Crookes gave, and the advice which he offered 
 like much other warning and advice were popularly 
 regarded as an attempt to make our flesh creep, and 
 the vision of a scarcity of food was treated by the 
 nation at large as a dream. The dream has become 
 a grim reality, and the British people have at last 
 realised, under the stress of a fight for existence, 
 that the question of food supply is the most vital 
 of all national interests. 
 
 After nearly twenty years, Sir William Crookes 
 has republished his Address, and has added a review 
 of the progress of events in the interval. To some 
 extent, the review is reassuring, inasmuch as the area 
 of wheat cultivation has shown greater elasticity than 
 was assumed. The estimate of total possible expan- 
 sion made in 1898 had already been exceeded in 
 1914, and the War has revealed possibilities of still 
 further additions in all wheat- exporting countries. 
 The moral of the statistics presented in 1898 was 
 that the chemist must come to the rescue, and that 
 by the aid of science the production of the wheat- 
 growing lands of the world could be greatly in- 
 creased. Sir William Crookes now shows that the 
 chemist has come to the rescue, and that although 
 there may be a limit to the land suitable for growing 
 wheat, and also to the quantity of stored-up natural 
 fertilisers, there is practically no limit to the resources 
 of nitrogen which science can place at the service of 
 agriculture. 
 
 For many years past it has been my business, and 
 for a still longer period my hobby, to deal with 
 
 G 2 
 
84 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 questions of food supplies, and I have taken every 
 opportunity to emphasise the fact that international 
 statistics of crops and still more of live stock and 
 produce must be discussed with a lavish allowance 
 for probable error. Much has been done by the 
 International Statistical Institute and, later, by the 
 International Agricultural Institute to improve and 
 co-ordinate the statistics of agricultural production, 
 and in nearly every country which is of importance 
 in the world's exchange of foodstuffs the systematic 
 collection of agricultural statistics is now recognised 
 as a national service of primary importance. The 
 demand of the public for statistics of food supplies 
 has been insistent since the War began, but it is not 
 realised that such figures are only available where there 
 is a completeand carefully organised machinery for col- 
 lecting them. Fortunately, in this country machinery 
 has for many years existed at the Board of Agriculture, 
 mainly in consequence of the persistent pressure of a 
 few among whom my old friend and colleague, Major 
 Craigie, C.B., was foremost who induced reluctant 
 Governments to provide exiguous means for estab- 
 lishing a system which, though still imperfect, pro- 
 vides a basis for calculating the food resources of the 
 United Kingdom with a fair degree of accuracy. 
 The British Isles, however, from the statistician's 
 point of view, present a very simple proposition, 
 and nothing but the comparatively trifling cost 
 prevents the establishment of a statistical service 
 which would provide complete and detailed statistics 
 of the production of every acre. But in the larger 
 countries of the world, where square miles are as 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 85 
 
 acres here, it is a more difficult as well as a more 
 costly matter, and a compilation of the returns from 
 every country must obviously embrace statistics of 
 very varying degrees of accuracy. 
 
 Of all international agricultural statistics, those of 
 wheat acreage are, happily, the most complete and 
 the most trustworthy. The latest estimates, made 
 by the International Agricultural Institute (for 
 1913-14), give 273,000,000 acres as the total area 
 under wheat in the world, and it may be reckoned 
 that this is probably accurate within 10,000,000 one 
 way or the other. But, in the nature of things, it 
 is easier to obtain reliable returns of area than of 
 crops. The yield of a crop can only be estimated, 
 and it is evident that a small error in the estimate of 
 the average yield per acre makes a large difference 
 in the total production from millions of acres. For 
 wheat-exporting countries, the trade returns afford, 
 over a series of years, a good test of the crop estimates. 
 It is indeed fortunate for the statistician, who is so 
 frequently called upon to produce bricks without 
 straw, that every nation is compelled, for its own 
 purposes, to obtain returns of the quantities of all 
 commodities leaving or entering its ports. If the 
 home demand remains constant, or is increased only 
 in proportion to increased population, the estimates 
 of the total crop may be checked by the quantity 
 exported. This test can, however, only be applied 
 some months in most cases a year after the crop 
 is harvested, and unusual economic conditions may 
 render it unreliable. 
 
 If statistics of crops harvested can only be 
 
86 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 approximately accurate, forecasts of future crops are 
 obviously much more speculative. Every year 
 forecasts are made by the corn trade of the probable 
 supplies during the ensuing cereal year, which 
 for general purposes is usually reckoned as 
 beginning on August ist, although for calculations of 
 available supplies for this country I have usually 
 adopted the year beginning September ist, by which 
 date a fairly trustworthy opinion of the outturn of the 
 home crop can be formed. Since the outbreak of war, 
 the normal difficulties of making such forecasts have 
 been greatly aggravated, while their importance, not 
 only to the United Kingdom, but to France and Italy, 
 was immensely increased. In August, 1914, it was 
 necessary to make a careful calculation of the probable 
 supplies of wheat during the next twelve months, a 
 calculation which had to be revised when the 
 Dardanelles were closed. By that time, there was 
 no possibility of an increase of wheat acreage in the 
 Northern Hemisphere, which would affect the actual 
 supplies to meet the demands up to the next harvest. 
 Some commercial estimates, made on the basis of 
 previous years' figures of supply and demand, sug- 
 gested that there was not enough available wheat in 
 the world to satisfy the requirements of the wheat- 
 importing countries, even allowing for the elimina- 
 tion of Germany. But such estimates did not allow 
 sufficiently for the new economic conditions, which 
 disturbed all calculations made on the basis of the 
 past. From the United States and Canada, which 
 had fairly good crops, the rise in prices drew 
 out a larger proportion than had ever previously 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 87 
 
 been known, while India, which had time to increase 
 her wheat acreage by 4,000,000 acres, was favoured 
 with an unusually good crop. The measures taken 
 by the Government to purchase and hold a certain 
 quantity of wheat, and, in co-operation with the 
 Government of India, to secure the early shipment of 
 a large part of the Indian surplus, ensured a sufficiency 
 of supplies for this country, but at the end of the 
 cereal year 1914-15 there was very little available 
 wheat left in the world. In 1915 the United Kingdom 
 increased its wheat acreage by nearly 450,000 acres, 
 Canada by 2,700,000 acres, Australia by 3,000,000 
 acres, and the United States by 7,000,000 acres. It was 
 remarkable that in Canada and Australia, as in India, 
 the extension of acreage was accompanied by excep- 
 tionally good harvests, so that the quantity available 
 from these sources was unprecedentedly large, and 
 supplies for the cereal year 1915-16 were ample for 
 all requirements, and in fact only a small part of 
 the Australian surplus was drawn upon. For 1916-17, 
 prospects looked at first fairly favourable, owing to 
 the large " carry-over " in Australia and India, 
 notwithstanding that the crop in the United States 
 and Canada was very unsatisfactory. Very pessi- 
 mistic forecasts of the probable supplies from 
 North America were made, and obtained credence. 
 But again too little was allowed for economic factors 
 in stimulating export, and the quantity actually 
 shipped was nearly double that which some 
 " experts " predicted. In this year, however, the 
 difficulty of tonnage which had been steadily in- 
 creasing became much more acute, in consequence 
 
88 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 of the rapid development of submarine activity, 
 and the locality of wheat supplies became almost as 
 important as their quantity. 
 
 The following table shows, for the five main 
 sources of wheat supply during the war, the acreage 
 under wheat before the war, and the changes made 
 under the influence of war conditions. The years 
 given are those in which the crop was harvested, and 
 the figures represent millions of acres : 
 
 1914 1915 1916 1917 
 
 United States of America . 53-5 60-5 57-3 59-1 
 
 Canada 10-3 13-0 12-9 13-4 
 
 Australia .... 9'3 9'7 12-5 12-5 
 
 India 28-5 32-5 30-1 33-0 
 
 Argentina .... 16-2 16-4 16-4 16-1 
 
 An addition or reduction of acreage obviously does 
 not represent a proportionate change in the quantity 
 of wheat grown, which is dependent mainly upon 
 seasonal conditions. Other factors, such as the 
 supply of mechanical or manual labour, the quality 
 of seed, and the use of fertilisers, may affect the 
 yield, but, as between one year and another, the 
 benevolence or malevolence of Nature has a far 
 greater influence than any operation of man. Over 
 a series of years seasonal influence may be averaged, 
 and acreage is a fair index of production, but this 
 does not apply to single-year comparisons. 
 
 The crops in the wheat- exporting countries for 
 each of the four years were in millions of quarters 
 estimated as follows : 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 89 
 
 1914 1915 96 1917 
 
 United States of America . 111-5 126*6 80-0 82-0 
 
 Canada 20-2 47-0 27-5 31-0 
 
 Australia .... 12-9 3 k i 22-5 19*0 
 
 India 39-1 47*^ Wf* 47'8 
 
 Argentina .... 14*3 21-1 21-6 10-0 
 
 ' * t *j% jk 1 7|j \ A \ (ft 
 
 The figures for 1917 are subject to revision, 
 especially in the case of the United States and 
 Canada. 
 
 Even the crop figures are not a measure of actual 
 supplies for the needs of purchasing countries. 
 The wheat available for export is the surplus over 
 home consumption, and this consumption may vary 
 within somewhat wide limits. Wheat is an excellent 
 food for animals, as well as for man, and a certain 
 proportion of the inferior or " tail " corn is normally 
 not marketed, but fed to stock. If the price which 
 the grower is offered for his wheat is not higher than 
 that at which he can profitably feed it to his cattle, 
 he will not sell. On the other hand, if it is sufficiently 
 tempting, he will part with every bushel which can 
 be used by millers, and will feed his stock on other 
 materials. 
 
 The proportion of the harvested crop which is 
 exported varies in normal times very greatly in each 
 of the countries above mentioned. On the average, 
 for the four years before the War Argentina exported 
 57 per cent, of her crop, Canada 46 per cent., the 
 United States 16 per cent., and India 14 per cent. 
 Australia stood even higher in this respect than 
 Argentina for this particular period, but the annual 
 fluctuations in the Australian crop are so great that 
 
90 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 it is difficult to rely upon any average as a guide. 
 In the cereal year 1914-15, Argentina exported 
 55 per cent, of her crop, Canada 54 per cent., and 
 the United States 37 per cent. It was evident that 
 Canada made a special effort, as she exported only 
 1,000,000 quarters less in 1914-15, from a crop of 
 20,000,000 quarters, than she had exported previously 
 from an average crop of 25,000,000. But the effect 
 of the exceptional drain on exporting countries 
 during 1915 was felt in the following year, as the 
 complete exhaustion of all available supplies and 
 the consequent absence of any " carry-over " for the 
 next year established as a first charge on the 
 succeeding crop the restoration of home stocks. 
 The United States, for example, although having a 
 larger crop in 1915, was, in fact, able to spare a 
 smaller quantity for export than she had done from 
 the crop of 1914, while Canada, while exporting a 
 much larger quantity, was, nevertheless, compelled 
 to retain also a larger quantity for home demands. 
 
 The main point in regard to which the experience 
 of war conditions may illuminate the general question 
 of the world's future wheat supplies is the evidence 
 of rapid response of wheat acreage to economic 
 pressure. The five countries on which the importing 
 countries had to rely increased their area under wheat 
 by 14,000,000 acres, or 12 per cent., in a single year. 
 The bounty of Nature assisted the enterprise of 
 man, and the quantity harvested was increased by 
 47,000,000 quarters, or 24 per cent. In the two 
 succeeding years, Nature withheld her assistance, 
 and although the acreage was maintained, and in 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 91 
 
 1917 somewhat increased, the total crop was no 
 greater than that yielded by the acreage of 1914. 
 
 These fluctuations illustrate another point. Every 
 year, in normal times, there is a theoretical risk of a 
 world famine of wheat. The difference between a 
 good and a bad harvest in any country may easily 
 vary from 25 per cent, above to 25 per cent, below 
 an average. In the extreme cases in the United 
 Kingdom the yield has ranged from 38! bushels 
 per acre in 1863 to 15! bushels per acre in 1879. 
 If in any one year the wheat crop all over the world 
 were to fail, the exporting countries might have little 
 or none to spare, while the importing countries 
 would require more than usual. The British Isles, 
 if no wheat were purchasable from other countries, 
 would obviously be in a state of famine, while even 
 in a normally self-supporting country like France 
 a deficiency of 25 per cent, in her home crop, without 
 any chance of supplying the deficiency from abroad, 
 would involve serious privation. In time of peace 
 this theoretical risk is practically negligible. The 
 extended range of wheat-growing is the best security 
 against a universal failure of the crop. 
 
 On the whole, it would appear that the outlook for 
 the maintenance of a sufficient supply of wheat for 
 the world's demand has brightened. Just before 
 the War, in the annual review of the world's agri- 
 cultural statistics issued by the Board of Agriculture, 
 I took occasion to summarise the latest available 
 figures of wheat acreage, in relation to population, 
 and the conclusions reached were briefly summarised 
 thus : 
 
92 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 ' The figures summarised showed that in the 
 British Empire the increase in the acreage under 
 wheat had been 45*5 per cent., and in population 
 6*6 per cent., during the ten years 1901-11. In 
 Europe the wheat area had increased by 17*1 per 
 cent., and population by 15*6 per cent., while in 
 the other countries for which comparative figures 
 could be given Algeria, Argentina, Japan, Siberia, 
 United States, and Uruguay the wheat area had 
 increased by 19*9 per cent, and population by 
 20*6 per cent. It was pointed out that the popula- 
 tion of the wheat-growing countries are not all 
 wheat-eaters, so that the comparison could not be 
 regarded as very precise, and a calculation if such 
 were possible of the increase of wheat consumers 
 would be necessary for a complete analysis of the 
 situation. The figures given represented that the 
 amount of land devoted to wheat over the greater 
 part of the world including the main wheat areas 
 and all the chief wheat-eating nations had increased 
 from about 0^28 to about 0-31 of an acre per head, 
 and in view of the fact that on the whole the produc- 
 tion per acre has increased the position was regarded 
 as fairly satisfactory." 
 
 In view of the authoritative facts given 
 as to the aid which science can render to 
 wheat-growers in their attempts to increase the 
 produce from their land, and in view also of the 
 evidence, which the War has furnished, that there 
 is a greater elasticity in the world's wheat supplies, 
 under present conditions, than might primd facie 
 have been assumed, it would seem that, for any 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 93 
 
 period which can reasonably be calculated, the risk 
 of an insufficiency of wheat in the world may be 
 regarded as not in itself affording immediate cause 
 for anxiety to the present generation. 
 
 The existence of a plenitude of wheat in the world 
 does not, however, ensure a sufficiency for the 
 British Isles. This question has lately taken on a 
 new aspect. Prior to the War the position in which 
 the United Kingdom would be placed if the free 
 access of grain ships to its ports were impeded was re- 
 garded with serious anxiety by comparatively few. The 
 appointment of a Royal Commission on Food Supplies 
 in Time of War testified to the fact that the Govern- 
 ment of the day recognised the existence of the 
 problem, and, prior to this, a Committee formed by 
 the late Mr. Yerburgh, with the assistance of the 
 Central Chamber of Agriculture, had examined in 
 some detail a proposal to establish national granaries 
 as a security against interruption of oversea supplies. 
 In the light of present knowledge, it is easy to 
 condemn the neglect to make some such provision 
 for insurance against a grave risk, as was recom- 
 mended by those who regarded the risk as existent. 
 The fact was, however, that the nation generally 
 did not take the risk seriously. The majority 
 of the people regarded the German menace in much 
 the same way as they regarded the Yellow Peril, 
 or the collision of a comet with the earth events 
 which were theoretically possible, but for which it 
 was not practically necessary to make provision. 
 Of the minority who knew that an attack by Germany 
 was within the limits of serious probabilities, the 
 
94 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 greater number argued that so long as we maintained 
 the supremacy of our Fleet, and held the command 
 of the sea, no question of the starvation of the country 
 could arise. 
 
 During the first two years of the War those who 
 trusted in the Fleet as a sufficient safeguard of our 
 food supplies appeared to be justified. The inter- 
 ference of the enemy with our shipping was less 
 effective than even pre - War optimists had 
 reckoned. The rate of insurance against war 
 risk settled down, after the first few weeks, to a 
 figure which was an eloquent testimony to the 
 impotence of the enemy at sea. Even those 
 who had foreseen the activities of the submarine 
 had underestimated the possibilities of defence 
 against its attacks. If it was formidable, it was also 
 found to be vulnerable, and it entirely failed in 
 closing the narrow seas where it was expected to be 
 found most effective. For over three years our 
 cross-Channel lines of communication have been 
 secured, and the daily passage of men and material 
 has been almost uninterrupted. But the power and 
 range of the submarine have been developed, and 
 from a pest of the narrow seas it has become a pirate 
 of the ocean. The under- water raider has become a 
 menace to the world's shipping, against which it 
 appears impossible to devise complete protection, and 
 the supremacy of the sea appears never likely again tobe 
 secured in the old sense. That access to the British 
 Isles can be entirely prevented is inconceivable, 
 so long as British seamen retain the spirit of their 
 race. No risk of attack, however deadly, or of 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 95 
 
 savagery, however fiendish, will deter them from 
 putting to sea. But, if we are not likely to be 
 beleaguered in a literal sense, it is clear that we may 
 be so far besieged that the garrison should be pro- 
 visioned for emergencies. 
 
 It is not possible, under any conditions short of a 
 drastic reduction of population or an abandonment 
 of a large part of our commerce and industries, that this 
 country can produce from its own soil all the various 
 food supplies which it requires. But a substantial 
 increase in the home supply of breadstuffs is possible. 
 To supply the existing population of the United 
 Kingdom with bread at the normal rate of consump- 
 tion requires about 34,000,000 quarters of wheat per 
 annum, which at the present average yield would 
 occupy nearly 9,000,000 acres. The largest acreage 
 under wheat of which we have actual record is 
 3,981,000 acres in 1869. During the Napoleonic 
 wars of a century ago the estimated acreage was 
 3,160,000 acres in England and Wales. There are 
 no available figures for Scotland and Ireland at 
 that period, but it is improbable that the total for 
 the United Kingdom exceeded 4,000,000 acres. 
 Trustworthy agricultural returns were commenced 
 in 1866, and prior to that date any figures are 
 uncertain. The reduction of wheat-growing was 
 steadily progressive during the last quarter of the 
 nineteenth century, and reached its climax in 1904, 
 when the total area under wheat was 1,407,000 acres. 
 There has been some recovery during the present 
 century, and under war conditions the acreage 
 reached 2,335,000 acres in 1915. If it be granted 
 
g6 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 that what has been done may again be done, there 
 is nothing unreasonable in assuming that 4,000,000 
 acres of wheat may be grown in the United Kingdom 
 on land which is suitable for its cultivation. 
 
 What are the conditions necessary to secure this 
 acreage ? This question engaged the attention of 
 the Royal Commission on Food Supplies in Time 
 of War, and the evidence of several representative 
 witnesses was taken on the point. In reviewing 
 the evidence the Commission observed : 
 
 !< It appears from the returns of the Board of 
 Agriculture that when the acreage under wheat and 
 the consequent production in the United Kingdom 
 was equivalent to that which Mr. Read hopes to 
 restore by raising prices to 403. per qr., the price 
 of wheat was over 505. per qr. Mr. Rew also 
 suggested in his evidence that to restore the acreage 
 which has already been lost is a very different thing 
 from maintaining it. He pointed out that farmers 
 abandoned wheat-growing with reluctance, and 
 perhaps held on longer than the financial position 
 warranted ; so that in order to induce them to grow 
 the same quantity as in former years, the change of 
 system having been made, it might be necessary to 
 offer them a greater temptation than the price which 
 then obtained. The opinion has also been expressed 
 that even if prices had been maintained at their level 
 of 20 or 30 years ago, wheat would still have gone out 
 of cultivation, because farming has become relatively 
 more profitable in other directions, such as dairying, 
 the cultivation of barley, and raising and feeding of 
 stock." 
 
FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLIES 
 
 97 
 
 Whatever force there may be in these contentions, 
 it is to be noted that when in 1869 farmers 
 placed nearly 4,000,000 acres under wheat, the 
 average price in the two preceding years had been 
 643. per quarter. Even if it be allowed that increased 
 cost of production may be set off by higher yield per 
 acre, it would still be sanguine to assume that the 
 wheat acreage of 1869 can De recovered under the 
 influence of a substantially lower level of price. 
 
 Assuming, however, that 4,000,000 acres can and 
 may be maintained under wheat in the United 
 Kingdom, it is desirable to realise clearly the 
 extent to which the security of our bread supplies 
 would be thereby assured ? The years 1868 and 
 1874 were distinguished as being two of the most 
 bountiful harvests ever known in this country, while 
 the harvest of 1879 was tne worst in the memory of 
 living man. The records of these years, with 1869 
 added as the year of maximum acreage, are as 
 follows : 
 
 Year. 
 
 Acreage. 
 
 Produce. 
 
 Yield per acre. 
 
 
 
 Qrs. 
 
 Bushels. 
 
 1868 
 
 3,951,000 
 
 16,730,000 
 
 34 
 
 1869 
 
 3,981,000 
 
 13,420,000 
 
 2 7 
 
 1874 
 
 3,830,000 
 
 13970,000 
 
 2 9 i 
 
 1879 
 
 3,056,000 
 
 5,9IO,OOO 
 
 I5i 
 
 Fifty years ago 4,000,000 acres represented 13 
 acres, whereas now it would represent less than 9 
 acres, per 100 inhabitants. With a maximum yield 
 we might reckon, at our present normal rate of 
 
 H 
 
98 THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 consumption, on about six months' supplies, but 
 with a minimum yield on less than three months' 
 supplies. 
 
 Wheat, however, as the public has now realised, is 
 not the only possible breadstuff. When the Food 
 Controller last January announced that it was 
 necessary to economise bread, he also determined 
 that it was essential to economise wheat. For the 
 first economy he trusted the people, and his confi- 
 dence, having regard to the fact that the country 
 had the shortest crop of potatoes on record, was 
 justified. The second economy was effected by 
 compulsion. The consumption of wheat was reduced 
 to the extent of over 20 per cent., with the result 
 that it was possible to build up a reserve which 
 should be sufficient for emergencies if the con- 
 sumption of bread is not increased. Such a change 
 in conditions which intimately affect every individual 
 in the country could not be expected to be made 
 without difficulties arising, both among the makers 
 and the consumers of bread, but on the whole it 
 is creditable to the adaptability of both classes 
 that the period of disturbance was so short, and 
 the unfamiliar war bread so speedily became accepted 
 by all but an inevitable minority of inveterate 
 " grousers." 
 
 The cereals, other than wheat, grown in this 
 country which may be regarded as potential bread- 
 stuffs are barley, oats, rye and beans, and the 
 quantity of rye and beans available is negligible. 
 The production of barley and oats together, in 1916, 
 was 28,000,000 quarters, and, including wheat, the 
 
FUTURE WHEAT : $UPPf.fpS 99 
 
 total quantity of bread corn produced was over 
 35,000,000 quarters. The quarter, however, is 
 different in each case. Reduced to weight, 4! 
 quarters of wheat are equal to 5 quarters of barley, 
 or to 7 quarters of oats. The proportion of each of 
 these kinds of grain which is suitable for human 
 consumption also differs considerably. In ordinary 
 times about 70 per cent, of the wheat berry is 
 extracted for flour but, as at the present time, 80 
 per cent, can be readily utilised for bread-making. 
 The lower rate of extraction is, in fact, a compara- 
 tively recent innovation, made possible by the 
 replacement of the old stone mills by the elaborate 
 machinery of modern times, and stimulated by the 
 irrational preference of the public for artificial 
 whiteness in the loaf. The rates of flour extraction 
 from barley and oats are however much lower. 
 
 The cultivation of oats in the United Kingdom 
 has been maintained at about the same level for the 
 past forty years, while the acreage of wheat, and in a 
 less degree of barley, has declined. In the 
 " 'seventies/* oats occupied about two-fifths of 
 the total area under white corn crops, while for many 
 years past the acreage under oats has been larger 
 than the acreage under wheat and barley together. 
 The new conditions of a guaranteed price for wheat 
 and oats will affect the relative areas under the three 
 crops, and it is difficult at present to estimate what 
 the proportions in the future will be. It is probable, 
 however, that any extension of wheat acreage will be 
 accompanied by at least an equivalent addition to 
 the acreage under oats. One probable result of 
 
ioo THE WHEAT PROBLEM 
 
 war experience will be to establish an increased 
 consumption of oats as human food, though, on 
 the other hand, the development of motor traction 
 will reduce the demand for oats for horses. In any 
 case, it is necessary, in making an estimate of 
 increased self-sufficiency to take oats into account, 
 although it must be noted that an acre of oats 
 represents in potential breadstuffs only about three- 
 fifths of the value of an acre of wheat. 
 
 The conclusion of the matter is that the new 
 agricultural policy will materially improve the 
 position of this country by reducing its dependence 
 on imported wheat supplies but that the precise extent 
 of the improvement cannot yet be calculated. It is 
 earnestly to be hoped that the future will see not only 
 a larger acreage under wheat, but also a substantial 
 increase in the average yield, now that every corn- 
 growing farmer can confidently incur, without serious 
 risk of loss, the outlay necessary to obtain maximum 
 crops from his land. If absolute security in the 
 sense that at any time of the year the country is 
 entirely independent of oversea supplies cannot be 
 obtained by any increase of corn acreage which can 
 reasonably be anticipated, there is a fair prospect 
 that the anxieties of the past year as to the nation's 
 food supply will in the future be very substantially 
 diminished. 
 
 IN GRRAT BR1TA1H BY RICHARD CKAY AND SONS, LTD., 
 BRUNSWICK STREET, STAMFORD C'iRKKT, B.I. 1, AND BVKOAY. SUFFOLK. 
 

372317 
 
 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY