University of California
College of Agriculture
Agricultural Experiment Station
Berkeley, California
Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B, Prices
of California Canned Asparagus, 1925-26 to 1949-50
by
Sidney Hoos
April 1950
Contribution from the
Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics
Mimeographed BepoJTt No, 106
UBKARY
rnt i irrj OF AGRICULTXJRB
DAVIS
statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices
of California Canned Asparagvis, 1925-26 to 1949-50
Sidney Hoos^'''
This report is another in the annual series issued hy the Giannini Fovindation
of Agricultural Economics for use iiy the California canned asparagus industry.
The report summarizes the results of statistical analyses of the annual average
f .o.b, prices of California canned asparagus and is based on data for the period
beginning with the 1925-26 marketing season and ending with the 1949-50 marketing
season. The war years 1941-42 through 1945-46 are excluded from the analyses
because of the abnormal conditions prevailing then, such as federal price control.
The primary purpose of the report is to provide canning asparagus growers,
and the packers, distributors and purchasers of canned asparagus, with the latest
available statistical analyses of the major factors which have influenced the
chfiuiges in the annual average f.o.b, prices of California canned asparagus. Such
major factors include the domestic movement of canned asparagus from California
canners, the level of nonagricultural income in the country, and the volume of
asparagus canned in other states. Those price-influencing factors are shown,
for the period under consideration, in table 2 appended to this report.
The f.o.b, prices of California canned asparagus are industry average prices;
they are based on records of canners and reflect actvial operations of the canneries
packing asparagus in California. The domestic movement of California canned as-
paragus has been derived from statistics issued by the Asparagus Advisory Boards
and the Canners League of California j the total movement from canneries has been
1/ Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Associate Agricultural
Economist in the Experiment Station and on the Giannini Foundation.
•.■tro-'-''
■M.-'i
adjusted for exports from California (San Francisco and Los Angeles ports) to
derive the movement to the domestic market. The index of United States non-
agricultural income is based on reports issued by the United States Department
of Commerce, The data on canned asparagus pack of states other than California
are from reports issued by the National Canners Association and the Canners
League of California, Specific sources for the several series of data, and more
detailed specifications, are noted in explanatory footnotes to tables 1 and 2,
In the statistical analysis, the average relationships which prevailed,
during the period from 1925-26 through 1949-50 (excluding 1941-42 through 1945-46),
between the f.o.b, prices of California canned asparagus and three major factors
were measured. These three major price-influencing factors include (l) domestic
shipments of California canned asparagus, (2) nonagricultural income payments in
the United States, and (3) volume of asparagus canned outside of California.
Figure 1 shows graphically the average relations between the f.o.b, price
and each of the major factors or independent variables, as determined by equation
1 in table 3, Expressed in numerical terms, these average relations are as
follows for the period of years under consideration:
(a) With both the nonagricultural income payments and the volume of
asparagus canned outside of California held constant, a change of
100,000 cases in domestic shipments of California canned asparagvis
was on the average accompanied by a change in the opposite direction
of about 10 cents a case in the f.o.b, price of California canned
asparagus. This relation is shown graphically by the line in panel A
of figure 1.
(b) With both domestic shipments of California canned asparagus and the
volume of outside pack held constant, a change of 10 per cent in the
index of nonagricviltural incme payments was on the average accompanied
■'r:.\ • it.:
- ■ ■ ■
.-O : .
T .... .
V;..-; ,i,:t:- ;
3.
Ijy a change in the same direction of about 40 cents a case in the
f.o.b, price of California canned asparagus. This relation is shown
graphically tsy the curve in panel B of figure 1,
(c) With both domestic shipments of California canned asparagus and
nonagricultural inccane payments held constant, a change of 100,000
cases in the volume of asparagus canned outside of California was
on the average accompanied by a change in the opposite direction of
about 10 cents a case in the f.o.b, price of California canned as-
paragus. This relation is shown graphically by the line in panel C
of figure 1.
Differences between the actual prices and those estimated by equation 1 of
table 3 are given in table 4, column 3, The differences are also plotted as
deviations from the respective net regression lines in figure 1, The differences,
expressed in terms of per cent of the actual price, vary from about two tenths of
1 per cent in 1926-27, 1928-29 and 1929-30 to about 9 per cent in 1947-48 and 1949-
50.
The average f.o.b, price for California asparagus in 1949-50 was the highest
of any year in the analysis. Such an average price occxu*red in the face of a
pack in 1949 which was exceeded only once in postwar years (1946) and was exceeded
only twice in prewar years (l929 and 1930), The 1949-50 marketing season opened
with a carry-over from the preceding year of 130,000 cases, which supplemented by
the 1949 pack, resulted in 2,755,000 cases available for shipment. During the
year, almost 2,5 million cases were moved from California canneries. Exports,
although slightly higher than in the previous year, wore less than during the
immediate postwar years and substantially less than the prewar average exports.
The level of nonagricultural money income in the country continued favorable and
undoubtedly supported the relatively strong market demand for California canned
asparagus.
'f ■
•,,!••■ :<■■
,;.;;.i.1.>
•■ • ■ ■ -- , t
:? V .■;
I'
■ .1 '
4
A fact of some importance to growers and packers in the state is that the
1949 pack of canned asparagus outside California was the highest on record. The
statistical analysis indicates that asparagus canned outside of California is
competitive in sales with asparagus packed in California, Hence, the growth
and position of canned asparagus produced in other states merits careful con-
sideration in the formiilation of production and marketing policies and programs
for California canned asparagus.
I
Figure 1
5.
Net Regression of F.O.B. Prices of California Canned Asparagus, 1925-26 to
1949-50, on: A, Domestic Movement of California Canned Asparagus; B, Index
of U.S. Nonagricultural Income Payments; and C, Pack of Asparagus Canned
Outside California
50 100 150 200 250 300
X, : Index of U.S. Nonagricultural Income Payments
(1935-39 <= 100)
i ■
6.
Figure 1, continued
M
K
O
U
o
a
1-1
O
7.0
6.0
I 5.0
o
o
•H
« 4.0
o
(c)
X, = 6.065676
1*4
0.000960 X,
3.0
0
500
1000
4&-50
ft
47-48
1500
2000
X
4'
Pack of Asparagus Canned Outside California
(1,000 cases)
t
7.
TABLE 1
Pack, Carry-over, Shipments and Domestic Movement of California
Canned Asparagus, 1925-26 to 1949-50
California
Year
March
through
February
Carry-over
from
preceding
year
Available
for
shipment
Total
movement
California
exports
California
domestic
movement
1
2
5
4
5
6
in 1,000
cases
1925- 26
1926- 27
1927- 28
1928- 29
1929- 30
1,745
2,236
2,190
2,338
2,673
170
251
407
402
269
1,915
2,487
2,597
2,740
2,942
1,664
2,080
2,195
2,471
2,619
325
278
358
408
506
1,339
1,802
1,837
2,063
2,113
1930- 31
1931- 32
1932- 33
1933- 34
1934- 35
2,663
1,747
1,313
2,135
1,914
323
958
1,059
454
276
2,986
2,705
2,372
2,589
2,190
2,028
1,646
1,918
2,313
1,980
329
264
245
376
412
1,699
1,382
1,672
1,937
1,568
1935- 36
1936- 37
1937- 38
1933-39
1939-40
2,238
2,350
2,072
1,796
1,849
210
305
522
576
450
2,448
2,655
2,594
2,372
2,299
2,143
2,133
2,018
1,922
2,126
438
411
325
251
257
1,705
1,722
1,693
1,661
1,869
1940-41
1942-43
1 Oil X AA
■JLOrtO— 'X'X
1944-45
2,182
1,578
2,258
2,071
2,436
173
399
307
220
177
2,355
1,977
2,555
2,291
2,613
1,956
1,670
2,345
2,114
2,461
116
(n.a.)
in a )
(n.a.)
1,£
40
194^6
1946- 47
1947- 48
1948- 49 .
1949- 502/
2,480
2,783
2,259
1,983
2,625
152
126
189
174
130
2,632
2,909
2,448
2,157
2,755
2,506
2,720
2,274
2,027
2,498
(n.a.)
251
282
17&/
2,489
1,992
1,893
2,325
1950-51^/.
257
a/ Preliminary, subject to revision, (n.a,), not available.
b/ March through December 1948,
Sources of data:
Cols, 1-4: Canners League of California and Asparagus Advisory Boards, Carry-
over figures are total stocks on hand, sold and unsold.
Col. 5: Compiled from reports of United States Bureau of Foreign Commerce,
United States Department of Commerce. Shipments from ports of San
Francisco and Los Angeles only. Pounds converted to cases on the
basis of 34 pounds per case.
Col, 6: Column 4 minus column 5,
8,
TABIE Z
Annual Average F,0,B, Prices of California Canned Asparagus and Important
Factors Affecting Them, 1925-26 to 1949-50 (excluding 1941-42 through 1945-46)
Year
March
through
February
F.O.B. price
of California
canned asparagus
Domestic move-
ment of Cali-
fornia canned
asparagus
Index of U, S,
nonagri cultural
income
(1935-1939=100)
Canned asparagus
pack of states
other than
California
1
2
3
4
dollars per case
10,000 casesV
per cent
1,000 c
ases
1925- 26
1926- 27
1927- 28
1928- 29
1929- 30
$6.01
5,69
5.44
5.63
5.69
134^
18o)gQP
184, pO
206, rab
211,W)
110
114
115
119
123
A O
48
37a/
4ca/
53
1930- 31
1931- 32
1932- 33
1933- 34
1934- 35
5.64
5 54
4.10
3.49
4.30
170^
194,11^0
157
110
94
72
71
80
10C&/
142
20
184
235
1935- 36
1936- 37
1937- 38
1938- 39
1939- 40
4.55
4.75
5.22
4.48
4.44
170 ,'{300
172 000
169,006
166,0^5'
187,j^0
87
103
106
101
108
281
438
631
607
671
1940-41
4,68
184,^0
117
927
:
(war years)
*
•
?
/ .
1946- 47
1947- 48
1948- 49
1949- 50^/
6.86
7.21
8.32
8.59
249, dOp
199,^
189,1^0
232 , 0M
258
285
306
309
1,659
1,658 ■
1,715
1,865
, ..1.1. 1 i
a/ Preliminary, subject to revision. ^ Ij^fO cases rounded to nearest ithousand.
Sources of data:
Col. 1: Years 1925-26 to 1935-36 compiled from records of canners, Years 1936-
37 to 1948-49 f rcan reports of Asparagus Advisory Board and records of
canners.
Col, 2: From table 1, column 6,
Col, 5: All figures obtained from the following sources, converted to 1935-1959
base by dividing by 62,22; 1925-26 to 1928-29: U,S,B.A.E. mimeo, dated
2/2/42; 1929-30 and all subsequent years tStatistical Supplement to Survey
of Current Business, July 1947, table 48j Survey of Current Business,
montW^r issues and weekly supplements; 1949-50 reflects data through
January 1950.
(Continued on next page.)
Table 2 continued.
9.
Col, 4: Years 1925-26 to 1932-33 from U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Biennial Census
of Manufactures, with 1926-27, 1928-29, and 1930-31 estimatedj years
1933-34 to 1941-42 compiled from Canned Food P&ck Statistics, National
Canners Association; years 1942-43 to 1949-50 derived from data in
Canners League of Galifomia, Asparagus Report, December 9, 1949,
San Francisco,
G
■ • ■ - It" ■'■
• 1 Oj <■ .
TABLE 3
California Canned Asparagus
Regression Coefficients and Auxiliary Constants for Miiltiple Regression Analyses
Covering 1925-26 through 19^9-50 (excluding 1941-42 through 1945-46)
Equa-
tion
Dependent
variable
Constant
term
Net regression coefficients^/
(figures in parentheses are t-ratios)
Adjusted co-
efficient of
multiple cor-
relation "R
Xg
^3
log,Q(X3)
\
t
t2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
b
9
10
11
1
^1
-12.594223
-0.009885
9.775417
-0.000960
/It /NT ■7li'7A\
.UJL C* (O)
0.9707
-423.854186
-34.929064
390.053079
\j . j'-t'D iy)
-0.030135
0.7365
3
^1
-10.649874
-0.009469
(2.702337)
8.564089
(13.944589)
-0.056642
(3.807408)
0.9691
4
-337.025724
-33.094791
(2.702337)
335.961800
(3.312785)
-1.563127
(1.359706)
0.7232
5
1
^1
3.520163
-0.008764
(2.544671)
O.C27772
(5.162778)
-0.101366
(4.074592)
-0.004046
(0.827487)
C.971I+
6
^2
207.910367
-34.407126
(2.544671)
1.347813
(3.056947)
-4.273985
(2.163785)
-0.388403
(1.308644)
0.7087
a/ X, » Annual average f.o.b, price of California canned asparagus; in dollars per case (see table 2, coliunn 1) .
X2 - Domestic movement of California canned asparagus; in units of 10,000 cases (see table 2, column 2).
= Index of nonagricultural income payments in the United States, 1935-1939=100 (see table 2, column 3) •
Xi^ = Canned asparagus pack of states other than California; in units of 1,000 cases (see table 2, column 4).
t = Time in years; origin at 1935-36.
' — "1
,-3jt*itQATSC-
—
(2-< .1
. . J
■ ■■
1
(5 - ■)
>.
<■ -r)
~c ..V,
{7:-
' 1) ■
t
■: f
J . J z:^
(r !
■
— , 1
-0* 00r¥?6
1
(T3- ■ •
0
' " ~ '"^ "
1
1 1 —
-.4
X
■
1 ^. 1
. \Jt --' '■
, i_.
1'
h=
A
TO ' .IT ;
1
!
•
1
nj- -> . - ' coi.-
€. . . - :f ci .
vry'i.-'Efcg CO-
jjep teste 8 a yon cot. -£si^\-
IVBTE 3
11.
TABIE 4
Actual and Estimated F.O.B, Prices of California Canned Asparagus
1925-26 through 1949-50 (excluding 1941-42 through 1946-46)
Year
March
Difference :
Percentage diffe
.r—
through
Actual
Estimated
col. 1 minus
ence: col, 3 as
i
February
price
price
col. 2
per cent of col.
1
1
2
3
4
1925-2S
ftfi m
1926-27
5.69
5.70
-0,01
-0,2
1927-28
5.44
5.71
-0.27
-5,0
1928-29
5.63
5.62
0.01
0.2
1929-30
6.69
5.70
-0.01
-0,2
■ \J. WD
1 T
1951-32
5.54
5.19
0.35
6.5
1932-33
4.10
3.89
0.21
5.1
1933-54
3.49
. 3.41
0.08
. 2.S
1934-35
4.30
4.23
. 0.07
1.6
1935-36
4.55
4.41
0.14
S.l
1936-37
4.75
4.96
-0.21
-4.4
1937-38
. 5.22
4.93
0,29
5,6
1938-39
4.48
4.78
-0.30
-6,7
1939-40
4.44
4.79
-0,35
-7.9
1940-41
•
4.68
4.91
-0.23
-4.9
•
(war years)
:
1946-47
6.86
6.93
-0.07
-1.0
1947-48
7.21
7.84
.-0,63
-8.7
1948-49
8,32
8.19
0.13
1.6
1949-50
8.39
7.66
0.73
8.7
!
1
Sources of data:
Col, 1: From table 2, column 1,
Col. 2: Based on equation 1, table 3.
.50 'to Bsal-rt ,0.;).^i .be
• •rriaLf.j'nA. •
-j.v. i-'i §id:bixIoXi>) OB~^•)^?X■ rfgjc ."v.:
1
.:i . j
j3 B « loo j aoxre
Izui'^k ■■■■
5! .loo
i A
L__i , »- ■..- ^
r~ — 1
s
f , —
1
i—— ~ ' '■ .1 1
■■■■■ 1'—
i
I
>
— 1 — .. ..I
so.0-4? ■
IG.O- •
.C'fj.fi' «••
10. 0 .
■
i..r, j .....
... n '■
■ 1
.■
i -.^ .
^' :
/ ■
I
i "-, • '
1 •
•
S3,d .■•
I
05 .0-.
1 ,
i
f
.
(aTjjss'i -iiiw) ■
1
• O.X-V
' ec..a ,
xs,v. ..'
!
: -...^ .
Sv.*J. It
' - - - - . ^ t. IL.. •
:jD<tj3fc to a ootids
:X .-.XoO.
:S •,!•-,')■ ■