University of California 
 College of Agriculture 
 Agricultural Extension Service 
 Berkeley, California 
 
 Analysis of the Principal Factors Affecting 
 the Price of Fancy Gravenstein Apples in 
 Sonoma County, California. 1923-1930. 
 
 E. W. Braun 
 July, 1931 
 
 Contribution from the 
 G-iannini Foundation of Agricultural Econoruics 
 
 UN IV 
 
1. 
 
 Analysis of the Principal Factors Affecting the Price of Fancy 
 Gravenstein Apples in Sonoma County. 1923-1950 * 
 
 E. W. Braun 
 
 The year-to-year variations in the prices paid growers for fancy 
 Gravenstein apples in Sonoma County, California from 1923 to 1930 have been in- 
 fluenced mostly by three factors: (l) the quantity of Gravenstein apples shipned, 
 (2) the competition in eastern markets of apples grown locally, and (3) the general 
 price level. There are, of course, other factors which have affected the prices of 
 Gravenstein apples but their influence has been minor during the years studied. 
 
 Table 1, which shows the prices paid gro^^rers for Gravenstein apples, commer- 
 cial shipments of Gravenstein apples, the size of the United States apple crops, and 
 the general price level, gives the basic information as to what has taken place with 
 respect to the principal supply and demand conditions appertaining to Gravenstein 
 apples. The price of Gravenstein apples is. the result of the balancing of these 
 demand and supply conditions. The price level of all commodities is the result of 
 the balancing of demand and supply conditions influencing collectively a great 
 number of commodities. The general price level here used reflects the weighted 
 average change in the wholesale price of 550 commodities at their principal markets. 
 The shipments of Gravenstein apples measure the supply offered for market, and the 
 size of the United States apple crop serves as a measure of the competition which 
 these shipments receive from other types of apples. The only factors over which the 
 Gravenstein apple growers have direct control are the quantity and to some extent 
 the quality of Gravensteins offered to the market. 
 
 The price of Gravenstein apples as shown in figure 1 has fluctuated very 
 violently since 1912. The rise from 1914 to 1921 was a result in part of the rise 
 in the general price level and in part of a succession of short apple crops in the 
 eastern states. Since 1924 there have been violent fluctuations in the price of 
 Gravenstein apples due mainly to violent fluctuations in the quantity shipped and 
 in the size of the United States apple crop as may be noted from figures 2 and 3. 
 For example, in 1925 the price of Gravensteins was unusually high because of unusual- 
 ly small shipments. The United States apple crop was about normal in that year. In 
 1926, however, normal shipments of Gravensteins brought a low price because the 
 United States crop was large. 
 
 In figure 4 the shipments of Gravenstein apples are measured along the hori- 
 zontal scale, the average prices along the vertical scale. The diagonal line repre- 
 sents the average relation that has existed between shipments and prices during the 
 8 years, 1923-1930. From this line it is possible to estimate the prices at which 
 varying quantities of Gravenstein apples could have been sold during those eight 
 years if other conditions had been average. It will be noted that v/ith each change 
 in the volume of shipments of 200,000 boxes there is a change of 20 cents a box in 
 the price. 
 
 The curve in figure 5 shows the average effect that changes in the size of 
 the United States apple crop has had upon the price paid growers for Gravenstein 
 apples. A crop of apples in the United States of from 175 million bushels to 180 
 million bushels may be considered as normal. When the United States crop was from 
 
 * A modification and continuation of a study by Emil Rauchens tein. Factors Affect- 
 ing the Price of Gravenstein Apples at Sebastopol, California Agricultural 
 Experiment Station. Hilgardia 12:325. 1928, 
 
2 
 
 Table 1 
 
 United States Apple Production, Gravenstein Apple Production in the 
 Sebastopol District, Gravenstein Apple Prices, and the General 
 Price Level of Commodities at Wholesale, July 1st, 
 
 
 
 Gravenstein 
 
 
 Gravenstein 
 
 General 
 
 Year 
 
 United States 
 
 Apple 
 
 Price of 
 
 Apple Shipments 
 
 Price 
 
 
 Production 
 
 Production* 
 
 Gravens teins 
 
 Sebastopol 
 
 Level 
 
 
 All Apples 
 
 Sebastopol 
 
 to Grower 
 
 District* 
 
 July 1st 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 b 
 
 
 million 
 
 thousands 
 
 dollars 
 
 
 
 
 bushels 
 
 of boxes 
 
 per box 
 
 cars 
 
 per cent 
 
 1912 
 
 235 
 
 53 
 
 .54 
 
 ... 
 
 ... 
 
 1913 
 
 145 
 
 42 
 
 .98 
 
 
 
 ... 
 
 1 O 1 /I 
 
 doo 
 
 ( 1 
 
 a 40 
 
 
 
 iy lo 
 
 OTA 
 
 OA 
 
 
 
 
 iyio 
 
 iy4 
 
 yo 
 
 e. 1 
 . Dl 
 
 
 
 1917 
 
 167 
 
 152 
 
 .93 
 
 ... 
 
 ... 
 
 1918 
 
 170 
 
 194 
 
 1.43 
 
 
 
 
 
 j.y xy 
 
 ^ A n 
 
 L'kC 
 
 TOO 
 
 o 
 
 1. yo 
 
 
 
 1 Q OA 
 
 iy<iu 
 
 
 A AA 
 
 X. / O 
 
 
 
 1 QOl 
 Xz) liX 
 
 QQ 
 
 OD I 
 
 1 7 P 
 
 
 
 1922 
 
 203 
 
 714 
 
 .47 
 
 
 
 
 
 1923 
 
 203 
 
 1,172 
 
 .73 
 
 1,551 
 
 93.4 
 
 1924 
 
 172 
 
 794 
 
 1.15 
 
 1,050 
 
 95.6 
 
 1925 
 
 172 
 
 187 
 
 1.96 
 
 247 
 
 104.3 
 
 1926 
 
 247 
 
 916 
 
 .39 
 
 1,211 
 
 99.5 
 
 1927 
 
 124 
 
 687 
 
 1.56 
 
 909 
 
 94. 1 
 
 1928 
 
 187 
 
 1,461 
 
 «43 
 
 1,932 
 
 98.3 
 
 1929 
 
 143 
 
 346 
 
 1.42 
 
 1,119 
 
 98.0 
 
 1930 
 
 164 
 
 1,377 
 
 .61 
 
 1,822 
 
 84.0 
 
 1931 
 
 211t 
 
 
 
 
 72. Ot 
 
 , 1 
 
 ♦Commercial; Napa included, 
 tPreliminary July 1st estimate. 
 
 Source of data; 
 
 Column 1, 1912-1926 U.S. Dept. Agr. , Yearbook of Agriculture, 1926:896, 1927. 
 
 1927-1930 U.S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook of Agriculture, 1931:714, 1931. 
 Column 2, 1912-1922 Data obtained from representative shippers by H. F. Gould, 
 
 and L, W. Fluharty. 1923-1930 from Column 4. 
 Column 3, 1912-1926 obtained by L. W, Fluharty from representative shippers, 
 
 average price of 4 and 4^ tiers. 1927-1930 obtained by Farm Advisor 
 
 from representative growers and shippers. 
 Column 4, 1923-1926 Carload shipments from records of shippers from the 
 
 Sebastopol district, converted to boxes at 756 boxes per car. 
 
 1927-28 Annual statements of the Gravenstein Apple Growers Association. 
 
 1929-30 By letter from the Farm Advisor. 
 Column 5, U.S. Dept. Labor, Bur. of labor Statistics, Wholesale Prices of 
 
 Commodities. (550 commodities) 1926 = 100. 
 
Digitized by the Internet Archive 
 
 in 2014 
 
 https://archive.org/details/analysisofprinci10brau 
 
Figure 1 
 
 Price to Grower of Gravenstein Apples in the 
 Sevastopol District Since 1912 
 
1,600 
 1,400 
 
 1,200 
 
 CD 
 
 2 1,000 
 
 ■s 
 i 
 
 E-i 
 
 800 
 600 
 400 
 
 200 - 
 
 Figure 2 
 
 Commercial Production of Gravenstein Apples in the 
 Sebastopol District Since 1912 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Sebast 
 
 opol District* 
 
 
 
 
 - 
 
 
 
 
 
 - 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 > 11 1 
 
 1 f— ._i 1 
 
 I.... .J 1 -.1. 
 
 
 1912 
 * Napa included 
 
 1915 
 
 1920 
 
 1925 
 
 1930 
 
 Figure 3 
 
 United States Apple Production Since 1912 
 
 Total United States 
 
 1912 1915 1920 1925 1930 
 
Figure 4 
 
 Influence of Shipments on the Price of 
 Fancy Gravenstein Apples 
 
 2.00 
 1.75 
 1.50 
 
 o 1.25 
 
 Ph 1,00 
 
 w 
 
 ^ .75 
 
 o 
 
 .50 
 
 .25 
 
 00 
 
 6 8 10 12 14 
 Gravenstein Shipments 
 100,000 boxes 
 
 16 
 
 Figure 5 
 
 Influence of Size of United States Apple Crop on 
 Price of Gravenstein Apples 
 
6. 
 
 25 to 30 million bushels below normal the price of Gravenstein apples was around 20 
 cents a box higher than it would have been if the crop had been normal. On the 
 other hand, when the United States crop was from 25 to 30 million bushels above 
 normal the price of Gravenstein apples was around 25 cents a box lower than it 
 would have been if the crop had been normal, 
 
 A third factor that has influenced the prices paid growers for Gravenstein 
 apples was the change in the general price level. On the average a change of one 
 per cent in the general price level has resulted in a change of one per cent in the 
 price of Gravenstein apples. Between 1923 and 1929 there were only minor changes 
 in the general price level. In 1930, however, there was a substantial decline; the 
 index of wholesale prices of all commodities on July 1 of that year was 84, as 
 against an average of 100 for the year 1926. As a result of that decline the price 
 paid growers for Gravenstein apples in 1930 was 16 per cent lower than it would 
 have been if the index of general prices had been at 100. 
 
 From the three factors of Gravenstein apple shipments, size of the United 
 States apple crop, and the general price level, it is possible to explain most of 
 the variations that have occurred in the prices paid growers for Gravenstein apples 
 during the years 1923-1930. This is shown in detail in table 2. For example, in 
 1927 shipments of Gravenstein apples amounted to 687,000 boxes. From figure 4 it 
 will be found that with other conditions being average, shipment of 687,000 boxes 
 will sell for around |l.33 a box. Other conditions in 1927, however, were not 
 average. The United States apple crop was below normal amounting to only 124 
 million bushels, and from figure 5 we find that 30 cents a box must be added. The 
 index of general prices in 1927 m'as at 94.1 and therefore 5.9 per cent or 10 cents 
 a box must be subtracted. The result of these calculations is *il.53 a box. The 
 actual price was $1.56 a box. From table 2, column 7 it will be noted that the 
 prices accounted for by the three factors measured agree closely with the actual 
 prices. The greatest difference is 7 cents a box. 
 
 The above relationships may also be used to assist in determining the 
 quantity of Gravenstein apples which vrill bring the greatest total market return 
 to growers. Such an application to 1930 conditions is illustrated in table 3. The 
 size of the United States apple crop was short, suggesting a price-raising influence. 
 The low level of general prices, however, exerted a price-depressing influence. 
 
 After making average allowance for both factors, the result shows that 
 1,300 to 1,600 cars would probably have brought a price from 76 to 92 cents a box 
 and would have resulted in bringing the greatest total market return to Gravenstein 
 apple growers. 
 
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Table 3 
 
 Estimated Price Range for Different Quantities of Gravenstein Apples 
 in 1930 and Accompanying Probable Market Return 
 
 Quantity 
 
 1930 
 Estimated Price 
 for Various 
 Quantities 
 
 Probable 
 Market 
 Return* 
 
 Carloads 
 
 Boxes 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 cars 
 
 1,000 boxes 
 
 dollars "oer box 
 
 1 000 dollars 
 
 790 
 
 600 
 
 It do 
 
 foo 
 
 1,060 
 
 800 
 
 1.10 
 
 880 
 
 1,320 
 
 1,000 
 
 .92 
 
 920 
 
 1,590 
 
 1,200 
 
 .76 
 
 912 
 
 1,850 
 
 1,400 
 
 .59 
 
 826 
 
 2,120 
 
 1,600 
 
 .42 
 
 672 
 
 * Assuming all apples shipped to be 
 
 fancy grade. "C 
 
 grade apples would 
 
 not change the point of greatest market return unless they were a large 
 per cent of the total. In view of 1930 conditions between 1,300 and 
 1,600 cars would have brought greatest market returns. 
 
 Source of data; 
 
 Columns 1 and 2, A range of shipments. One car considered equal 
 
 to 756 boxes. 
 
 Column 3, 1930 Estimated Price for various quantities placed 
 
 on the market after allowing for the size of the 
 U, S. Apple Crop and the General Price Level.