UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA SERIES ON CALIFORNIA CROPS AND PRICES ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY EDWIN O. VOORHIES BULLETIN 437 October, 1927 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA 1927 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of California, Davis Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/economicaspectso437voor CONTENTS PAGE Foreword 5 Summary 5 The development of the dairy industry 10 United States 10 California 16 Ratio of dairy cows to dairy heifers, 1920-1927 24 Geographic distribution of dairying 26 United States 26 Pure-bred dairy cattle 26 The general dairy situation 28 Importance of the dairy industry, United States 28 Importance of the dairy industry, California 31 Dairy-feed conditions in California 35 Average production per cow in California 37 Production of dairy products 42 Manufacturing and distributing plants in the Western States 42 Butter production 45 Cheese production 52 Production of condensed and evaporated milk 54 Production of ice cream 57 Production and distribution of market milk 58 Production of other dairy products 63 Consumption of dairy products 64 Utilization of milk 64 Apparent consumption of dairy products 66 Prices and purchasing power of products of the dairy industry 72 Farm prices of milk cows in the United States and California 72 Prices of dairy products 77 Butterfat prices 77 Butter prices 81 Cheese prices 96 Market-milk prices 100 Sweet-cream prices 107 Milk prices at condenseries 109 Powdered skim milk 110 Veal 110 Prices of discarded milk cows Ill Cost factors in the production of milk 112 General considerations 112 Feed costs 114 Labor 117 Land values 120 Storage of dairy products 121 Cold storage of butter 121 Cold storage of cheese 124 Condensed and evaporated milk 127 PAGE Domestic trade in products of the dairy industry 128 Dairy cattle 128 Domestic trade in butter 131 Domestic trade in cheese 140 Foreign trade in dairy products 146 California's share in foreign trade 146 Imports and exports of dairy products, United States 149 Tariff on dairy products 159 The international trade in dairy products 160 The foreign dairy situation (Argentina — Australia — Canada — Denmark — Esthonia — Finland — France — Germany — Great Britain — Holland — Italy— Irish Free State — Latvia — Lithuania — New Zealand — Switzer- land — Russia — Sweden) 165 Oleomargarine 170 Relation to butter 170 Price relationship of butter and oleomargarine 172 Production of oleomargarine 174 Consumption of oleomargarine in California 174 Tuberculosis 176 Freight and express rates 178 Sources of current information on the dairy industry 178 Appendix of tables 181 ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY EDWIN C. VOORHIESi FOREWORD This bulletin represents the results of a study undertaken at the request of the various dairy interests of California. The primary object has been to analyze the chief available statistical data relating to the industry. Those interested in specific products of the dairy industry are asked to consult the table of contents (p. 3). The material has been so arranged that data on the production of various dairy products will be found in one section of the publication, while those on con- sumption will be found in another, etc. For those who wish to quickly obtain the conclusions set forth in the body of the publication, the summary found in the first few pages will be helpful. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Acknowledgment is due the directors and members of the Food Research Institute, Leland Stanford Jr. University, under whom this work was undertaken. Especial thanks are given Dr. J. J. Frey, Chief, Bureau of Dairy Control, California State Department of Agriculture, without whose cooperation a large part of the data contained in this publication would not have been available, and to J. Murray Davison, Assistant Farm Advisor, Alameda County, California, for his untiring assist- ance in making statistical computations. Credit is due the many individuals and agencies who contributed materially by way of suggestions and the furnishing of data. SUMMARY California cannot be detached from the United States in any consideration of the dairy industry. In turn, a view of the world situation must be obtained in order to understand present domestic conditions and to formulate future policies. 1 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics and Associate Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station. b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION This state produces approximately 3.7 per cent of the total milk supply of the United States (1924 data), and on January 1, 1927, contained 2.73 per cent of all the cows kept for milk purposes. Because of the many products, the dairy industry is difficult to analyze as an entity. Although in the long run there is a tendency toward an equilibrium in the production of the various dairy products, in some countries and sections readjustments between the production of these are necessarily slow. During and since the World War, a number of important changes have taken place in the dairy industry. These changes are summarized in the following dis- cussion under (1) The World Situation, (2) The United States, and (3) The Western States, Including California. 1. The World Situation. — Butter, cheese, and concentrated milk are the three dominant dairy products on the world markets. Although the first two have long been important articles of commerce, the latter has only recently come into especial prominence. One of the pronounced changes in the world dairy trade began before the World War with the development of the industry in the southern hemisphere, particularly in New Zealand, Argentina, and Australia. The maladjustments in Europe's agriculture at the close of the World War afforded the countries of the southern hemisphere an excellent market for butter and cheese. Shortly afterwards efforts were made by the European nations to win back their former trade with Great Britain and Germany — the two leading importers of butter and cheese. Supplies of the latter two products and concentrated milk on the world market are far greater today than they were before the World War, owing to the greatly increased supplies from the southern hemisphere and in many cases increased offerings from Europe itself. Fortunately for this situation Germany in 1924 began to import greatly increased amounts of butter and cheese and this condition has afforded an additional outlet. According to the best available infor- mation attempts are being made to make up for the deficiency of dairy products in Germany itself. Trade in concentrated milk has more directly concerned the United States, and in it almost revolutionary changes have taken place since 1914. Through the European demand the United States became the leading exporter of concentrated milk during the war. The larger part of this was brought about by army requirements of the United States and allied powers. Holland, which before 1913 was unim- portant in this trade, has gradually become the dominant exporting nation of the world, displacing the United States in the European field. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 7 World conditions and prices do not point to any considerable opportunities in foreign trade for the United States at this time. At present (January to October, 1927) increased offerings on world markets are being taken at lower prices, as reports from both London and Copenhagen indicate. 2. The United States. — Nation-wide prices of dairy products are difficult if not impossible to obtain. Data of the Bureau of Agricul- tural Economics indicate that butter prices since 1923 have been almost normal, although during the war they failed to rise as rapidly as commodity prices in general. Milk prices, on the other hand, have been low — especially milk destined for concentration purposes. The dairy industry of the United States in its entirety should experience a steady, sane growth which should be at the same rate as that in population, provided the consumption requirements do not change. The numbers of dairy cows should increase relatively less rapidly than production as the production of butterfat per cow should increase. Increased efficiency and quality of the product are far more important than an increase in numbers of dairy cows. Although the consumption of all the important dairy products has increased during the past ten years, there is no certainty that this upward trend will continue, particularly with the increased pressure of all types of food upon population, which has come about during the past few years in this country. One of the most certain methods of main- taining consumption is by increasing quality. While under present conditions indications do not warrant any large increase in the number of animals, the dairyman of the United States should never lose sight of the fact that it might prove detrimental to the industry and himself if prices were considerably higher relatively than those for other foodstuffs. This is particularly pertinent in the case of butter with the number of partial substitutes offered. However, with the thousands of actual and potential producers the danger is far more likely to come from over than from under-expansion. Questions about far eastern trade possibilities have been raised continually. While this trade may develop, it will be necessary to conduct considerable pioneer work first. High-quality dairy products from this country have been in a position to compete with those from foreign countries. The concentrated-milk exports have been tending to shift from the east to. the west coast and it is probable that this shift will continue, although the export trade as a whole is decreasing and will probably continue to do so. It would not be possible for this country to remain on an importing basis with butter and cheese 8 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION and on an exporting basis with concentrated milk if the present differ- ential between domestic and foreign prices of butter continues, since there will be a tendency for an equilibrium in the production of these three products. 3. The Western States Including California. — The eleven western states may be considered as an entity in the dairy industry because they are, for all practical purposes, self-sufficient, cheese being im- ported, concentrated milk being exported, and butter shipments balancing. The western area has not only grown more rapidly in population than any other section, but its dairying has increased in a like manner. Butter and cheese production in the last ten years have forged ahead more rapidly in the sections of this area outside of California. This state for some time has been deficient in butter and cheese production, increasing amounts having been shipped in from other states and foreign countries. The fact that the state is an exporter of concentrated milk should not be lost from view. The factors making for a relatively larger increase in butter and cheese production in the other western states have been many. Alfalfa hay and certain concentrates have been cheaper in many of the dairy sections of the west, especially in Idaho and Montana. Difficulties in exporting alfalfa have forced a greater utilization of it near produc- tion centers. In many of the sections competition between various crops has not been as keen as it has been in California. Prices of dairy products did not drop relatively as low as those of other staple agricultural products and in general they have been more constant. Whether butterfat areas in this state can produce more cheaply than in the other western states is problematical. California has an advan- tage in transportation, compared with most sections of the western area producing for California markets. This has made, together with other factors, for a higher price of butterfat in this state than in the surplus sections. In general, cows in California are higher producers than elsewhere, and the lack of a decided seasonal production in many sections has been an advantage. Additional butterfat will be needed and a steady, conservative growth should be contemplated. The growth in the numbers of cows should proceed more slowly than that of population or butterfat. If the state is to continue to produce large amounts of butterfat for other than market-milk purposes it must do so on the basis of cows of higher producing ability. Especial caution should be exercised in regulating numbers of animals supplying market-milk needs. With a product such as milk it is highly essential that a high-quality supply be maintained. Pro- BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 9 ducers, distributors, and consumers alike should be interested in an orderly growth of this supply; such growth cannot come about through large and sudden accessions to the herds in any section. Unfortunately, in many sections sufficient data do not exist upon which to base estimates of future needs nor to determine seasonal demands. Certain sections of the state, particularly in the vicinity of Los Angeles, require large importations of dairy cattle to supply additions and replacements for herds producing market milk. These cattle are largely shipped into the state and the need for high- producing, disease-free cattle ought to be filled in this state. Incomplete data serve to indicate that, as in the nation, the per capita consumption of dairy products has increased ; but it is doubtful if the past rate of increase can be continued. Per capita consumption of dairy products in California is higher than in the nation. Every effort should be made to encourage the production of quality products. The maintenance of quality is vital to the California dairyman with shipments of butter and cheese from the outside. Furthermore, on the basis of quality California dairy products have been able to compete with cheaper products from abroad. Prices for dairy products in California lagged behind general commodity prices during the war. Compared with general com- modity prices the trend in the prices of the major dairy products has been upward since 1916, when they were at the lowest point com- pared with the prices of all commodities. With the exception of 1923, prices for butterfat in churning cream have been slightly below general commodity prices based upon a 1910-1914 average. These comparisons are for unit prices of dairy products only. Since the production of fat does not fluctuate as much from year to year as that of may crops, these comparisons may serve as the basis of general conclusions. It is believed that considering relative prices only, the dairy industry in California is in a better position than in the nation. The trend of feed prices since 1910 has not risen as rapidly as that of butterfat prices. Wages have risen relatively more than the prices received for butterfat. No general conclusions can be drawn from these statements, as these two important items of cost affect various producers differently. To generalize with reference to land values in a state such as California might prove misleading. It should be pointed out that in all probability land values have remained at higher levels in this state during the past few years than they have in the other western states. On account of the great variety of crops, competition between them has been more keen in this state. If the 10 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION population of California continues to increase, it is highly probable that the production of market milk and cream will occupy an increas- ingly important place in the dairying of the state, and in addition this production will have the choice of area. It is highly probable that dairying for other purposes will always be important in both the north and south coast sections from Del Norte to San Luis Obispo counties and indications point to an increase in the mountain counties. Southern California, with the exception of Imperial Valley, will no doubt continue to be an area for market-milk production. Especial care should be taken to correlate production with demands in the southern section of the state. Increases in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Imperial valleys will depend on general conditions surrounding the industry and on the efficiency of production. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY United States. — Until comparatively recent times cattle of the dairy breeds were not clearly differentiated from those of the beef breeds, and thousands of the latter are still used as milk cows. Com- parisons between the dairy-cow population for different years are not satisfactory except as such information many serve to indicate very general changes, including the relative distribution of animals. Further complications arise from the fact that the dates of the census enumerations are not the same for each census year, and in addition, the dairy cow of today is far more highly developed than formerly. Where marked improvement is taking place from year to year, it is not strictly accurate to make comparisons of numbers, even for succeeding years (table 11, p. 38). Cattle were brought to the new world first by the Spanish in the sixteenth century and by the settlers on the eastern shores of the present United States in the seventeenth. These early cattle not only provided milk, meat, butter, and cheese for the settler, but served as draft animals. Since colonial days there has been an increasing differentiation between the functions performed by cattle. With the growth of urban centers along the eastern seaboard, together with the development of commerce and shipping, dairy- ing began to develop. The export statistics of 1790 indicate that appreciable amounts of butter and cheese were produced above home requirements, the average exports of the three years 1790-1792 being 948,000 pounds of butter and 133,000 pounds of cheese. 2 2 Larson, C. W. The dairy industry. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1922 : p. 302. 1923. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 11 With the growth of such centers as New York, Boston, and Phila- delphia, and the advances made by manufacturing after the War of 1812, a supply of market milk for the North Atlantic states became a necessity. Butter and cheese-making, even at this stage in the history of the industry, began to move to the back country. In 1839 the states reporting the largest aggregate values of dairy products were New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Vermont, Ohio, and New Hampshire. By 1850, over 46 per cent of the milk cows in the country were west of the Alleghany Mountains. During the two decades, 1850-1860 and 1860-1870, a rapid increase occurred in the north central states and New York. The decade 1870-1880 witnessed the greatest relative growth in the number of dairy cattle in the United States — 39.3 per cent (Cali- fornia 28.0 per cent). Coupled with this increase was a rapid expan- sion in the agricultural area and in the number of farms. By 1880 the Mississippi Valley contained over 60 per cent of the milk cows of the country and this proportion has been maintained ever since. During the period 1880-1890 the largest actual increase in the number of milk cows occurred. This was the decade of expansion of the industry in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. Expansion was slow during the decade 1890-1900, with the exception of a marked increase in the mountain states which accom- panied the extension of irrigation and settlement. Estimated milk production for the latter area in 1899 was 100 per cent greater than it had been in 1889. Since 1900 the most rapid development in dairying has been in the mountain and Pacific States, California sharing in this growth. The estimated milk production of the United States in 1924 was approximately 27 per cent greater than that in 1899. Population growth during the same period was over 50 per cent. If the last five years of the above-mentioned period are considered, production in 1924 exceeded that in 1919 by almost 18 per cent, while population increase amounted to approximately 8 per cent. Although these data are fragmentary and incomplete with reference to milk production, indications are that over the first quarter of the present century milk production increased less rapidly than population, but that during the latter part of the period milk production has been growing more rapidly. 12 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION pq # ■* CO © •* CT> OO M N N tO CO CO rt "3 O CM lO CO rt rt rt WOOHOIWOONOH ■maiaoNNooNiN OO •"* © lO CO CO OO CO 05 fq lO ^" iH 1H rH i« »C T co ■<*" t-T -h rt io © r^ * N N N O U) e N N H N H rt l^rtrtrtrtlOCMlOt^ ^TflOlHOO^OINOl t^ * » "* n h q h cn (N M IN rH* rt rt w ^ o) co a co co «-l CM rt CO rt o oo o h w a co as ■** tJ< O CO «5 OO © OO CO t~- © t— OO OO N a .2 -O « oj a 2^ § _<•> 5 3 CI 52 >> rt _-* frt o3 = -« o >> . 0) TO ^w sjrt 5 ~ a DQ O CI t> +-> 03 rH ~-oa F] OT O pj on on OB Fh m CO P< OJ CJ fl „ Srt - o rd so ^4 Ox] rt O 3 * 8- • •xi • o — o3 1|| no." V-irt OJ lO CO ~ •-; -rt rti O C-J 03 TO fa .9 ""d ^ W 03 • 03 M T3 OS •si- fl C3 el w-5 r°v2"5 Urt o a _v 5 3 CO (J • TO o en ^ ° r ~rH 03 bfi S ^ P4 o o j-j M O „ o . 03 OQ ^ > be rt° rt^ fl rt 03 03 CS g rt=i rtrt-g - A^ +> -t 3 CO . o o a irt-^j "Sm 03" _3 03 .^- 03 ".2^2 I all S> c3"-l „ rt"a | h fl -rt) .-J a s-2 g WFivrt 03 h ° ,"3 ED SJ " 03 rt oo rt fl OO rt ^ .jH O ^ 03 fH 00 P*U2 O 00 p, *H rH C3 g •- .2«Qrt include M ral: Ohio Maryland sippi. We tes ent ire, ssis rt-t-jg M rt3 =3 -O-g 03 03* ll u I — +J ..rt> C co « o3 M o3-rtrt E ^« £-5<< 8 Ph P s s S t- «3 03 rtfl 2°'rtO » ^ Ph . fS O 03 lO 03 £> -^ CO ,0 SS S a ••03 „ Ci rt . * s s © -+H o rH rt 05 O . O H > 3 O bo £ <1 i" (M W Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 13 Comparisons between the milk production for 1899 and 1924 for the Pacific and mountain states show increases of 146.8 per cent and 229.1 per cent, respectively. Comparing 1924 with 1919, the moun- tain states showed an increase of 39.2 per cent while that for the Pacific states was 22 per cent. California did not expand its milk production as rapidly as Oregon and Washington during the twenty- five-year period, although the five years 1919-1924 give evidence of a greater relative growth, which, however, is far below that of the mountain states. Population gains for both divisions of the western states have been large, that for the mountain states from 1900-1925 being approxi- mately 129.5 per cent, while for the Pacific states it has been 171.2 per cent. Census estimates for the five year 1920-1925 indicate a 17.7 per cent gain for the Pacific states and 15.2 per cent for the mountain states. Unlike the entire country, milk production in the eleven western states (table 13,. p. 40) during the first quarter of the present century gained more rapidly than population. The same was true for the five years 1919-1924. TABLE 2 Percentage Distribution of Dairy Cattle, on Farms, 1880-1925, United States Division and state United States. Geographic Divisions: New England Middle Atlantic East North Central . West North Central South Atlantic East South Central.. West South Central. Mountain Pacific Mountain: Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Pacific: Washington Oregon California 1880 100.0 6 00 19.64 24 04 19.38 10.29 9.21 8.05 1 00 2.39 09 0.10 03 23 0.10 07 0.26 11 0.22 0.48 1.69 1890 100 4.98 15.32 22.72 27.18 8.29 7.95 9.19 1.32 3.04 15 17 07 47 0.11 03 28 06 43 69 1.92 1900 100 5.21 15 19 23.12 26.42 8.07 7.38 9 54 1.92 3.13 0.63 0.71 1.79 1910 (as re- ported) 100.0 4.08 12.59 23.42 25.83 8.78 7.89 10.91 2.49 4.01 0.38 0.42 16 70 0.25 14 0.37 0.08 0.90 0.84 2.27 1920 100.0 4.28 12.70 25.67 22.92 8.50 8.53 9.57 3.15 4 68 0.65 0.59 0.18 0.98 0.19 0.16 0.34 0.07 1 21 0.92 2 55 1925- 100.0 4.49 13.33 28.50 20.87 7 54 7.76 8.26 3.40 5 85 0.59 0.79 0.19 0.93 0.22 0.19 40 10 1 51 1.16 3.18 1925-b 100.0 3.64 10.64 24.72 27.51 7.70 7.61 9.59 3.75 4.84 0.83 71 0.29 1 00 28 0.16 0.39 0.08 1 26 1.00 2.58 Source of data: Calculations by author based upon table 1. 14 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION An attempt was made in obtaining the 1925 farm census to differentiate more clearly between dairy cattle and other cattle. The returns (table 1) show clearly the degree to which California special- izes in dairy cattle compared with other states. TABLE 3 Cows and Heifers Two Years Old or Over Kept for Milk, United States, 1920-1927 (Thousands, i.e., 000 omitted) State and division 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 Percent 1927 is of 1920 176 98 292 150 22 114 1,499 131 893 171 96 298 154 22 115 1,477 130 893 165 94 302 160 23 115 1,462 127 900 162 90 303 164 23 116 1,449 126 925 160 86 298 157 22 116 1,422 124 898 156 85 287 148 22 118 1,383 123 889 150 80 288 140 22 116 1,362 . 123 862 148 78 285 138 21 110 1,318 119 845 84 1 79 6 97 6 92 95 4 96 5 87.9 90.8 Pennsylvania 94.6 North Atlantic 3,375 3,356 3,348 3,358 3,283 3,211 3,143 3,062 90.7 Ohio 918 659 1,047 824 1,832 1,359 1,120 800 430 467 535 695 927 653 1,027 815 1,858 1,405 1,120 792 426 462 540 709 936 659 997 823 1,882 1,503 1,160 799 440 480 594 723 936 652 1,029 831 1,921 1,525 1,220 799 457 500 606 730 964 659 1,029 847 1,981 1,535 1,280 805 494 520 612 737 964 679 1,049 850 2,015 1,560 1,341 835 520 544 625 760 945 665 1,039 858 2,055 1,560 1,341 827 530 539 625 730 926 645 988 841 2,014 1,529 1,314 827 498 534 613 715 100.8 97.8 94.4 102.1 109.9 112.5 117.3 103.3 115.8 114.3 114.6 Kansas 102.9 10,686 10,734 10,996 11,206 11,463 11,742 11,714 11,444 107.1 33 166 377 193 300 195 408 73 32 169 384 197 306 193 396 75 32 172 392 201 312 187 396 78 33 174 402 207 309 185 376 82 34 179 385 215 306 182 366 82 34 184 376 255 312 176 354 70 35 182 347 221 303 155 340 74 35 178 326 207 303 158 343 78 106.1 107.2 86.5 107.3 101.0 81 84 1 Florida 106 8 1,745 1,752 1,770 1,768 1,749 1,731 1,657 1,628 93 3 455 445 420 475 450 220 564 930 450 445 410 451 428 209 536 948 450 453 390 446 436 204 556 995 462 467 380 437 396 203 564 1,004 457 458 370 433 378 205 554 1,014 473 462 365 411 382 206 582 985 464 434 340 379 374 200 570 936 464 425 350 379 374 210 581 973 101.9 95.5 83.3 79.8 83.1 95.4 103.0 Texas 104.6 3,959 3,877 3,930 3,913 3,869 3,866 3,697 3,756 94 9 Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 15 TABLE 3— (Continued) State and division 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 Percent 1927 is of 1920 148 118 55 202 58 35 72 14 245 200 515 148 122 57 202 61 30 72 15 250 202 530 155 128 59 206 63 35 75 16 255 202 550 162 134 62 209 63 36 80 17 270 205 580 174 147 64 217 63 36 84 18 275 218 595 187 160 66 224 64 37 87 19 283 225 579 192 163 69 224 64 32 88 20 275 214 596 188 170 70 224 64 35 89 20 264 214 596 127.0 144 1 127.3 110.9 110 3 100 Utah 123 6 142.8 107.7 107.0 115.7 1,662 1,689 1,744 1,818 1,891 1,931 1,937 1,934 116.4 United States 21,427 21,408 21,788 22,063 22,255 22,481 22,148 21,824 101.8 Sources of data: 1920-1926, 17. S. Dept. Agr., Monthly Supplements to Crops and Markets; 1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. Comparisons of changes in the milk-cow population since 1920 can be made more readily from the estimates of the Bureau of Agri- cultural Economics as listed in table 3. From 1920 to 1927 these estimates indicate that there has been only slight gain in the number of milk cows and heifers (397,000 or 1.85 per cent) in the United States — far less than the growth in population (11.4 per cent). With the growth of cow-testing associations and the resultant higher pro- duction per cow, the actual gain in milk production has been greater than the mere comparison between the numbers of milk cows would indicate. Comparisons between either milk production or milk cows should be used in a general way. Although fluctuations in production are undoubtedly less than is the case with many other agricultural products, production can be increased or decreased materially by matters of management and feeding, a fact which is often overlooked in making comparisons. That the increase in milk production has been less than the actual requirements of the country can be seen by noting the foreign-trade balance in dairy products (fig. 39, p. 152). During the past seven years the western and north central states have made actual gains in the milk-cow population, while the other sections have experienced decreases (fig. 1). During and immediately after the World War prices of dairy products did not rise as rapidly as those of several of the other chief farm products. Prices for dairy products fell along with those for general commodities but the diminution was less than for cereals and meat animals. There had not been a pronounced movement into the dairy business as there was into many other lines of agricultural 16 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION endeavor, partly because of the moderate price, and in part due to the difficulties involved in expanding the dairy output greatly. Increased dairy production calls for a proportional increase in labor require- ments and considerable time. Furthermore, new dairy farms call for initial investments of considerable capital. Various states have vigorously prosecuted tuberculosis-eradication work, which perhaps has made for a slower increase. Mi/lions f/OOO /oooo 9000 8 000 7000 eooo 5000 4000 -3000 ZOOO IOOO o Y//\ January 19Z0 January 1927 North Atlantic North Central 5outh Aflontic Souih Central Western Fig. 1. — Milk cows in the United States, January, 1920, and January, 1927. The north central states contain over 50 per cent of the milk cows in the United States. California is included in the western states and contains about 30 per cent of the milk cows in this group. Numbers have increased only in the north central and western groups since 1920. Data from table 3. California. — The census of 1860 reported a number of dairy cattle in the Pacific states, especially in California and Oregon. 3 Many of these cattle were native, milked on account of the demands for dairy products resulting from the influx of settlers. 3 The census of 1860 enumerated the number of milk cows per 100 persons, together with the production of butter and cheese per cow, as follows: Section Milk cows to every 100 persons Butter per cow — pounds Cheese per cow — pounds 1860 1850 1860 1850 1860 1850 21 24 27 29 56 27 22 25 28 30 16 27 75 87 58 22 15 53 72 80 49 19 10 49 32 25 10 »/u 5 12 44 31 13 6 /l6 2 X A 16 Dept. Interior, U. S. Census Office, Agriculture in the United States in 1860, pp. cxviii-cxix. 1864. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 17 Compared with that in the United States, the expansion of the dairy-cattle population in California has been, omitting the period 1890-1900, far more rapid since 1880, which might have been expected owing to the relatively greater growth of the human population. The increase in the estimated milk production in the state has been rela- tively larger and in addition it has been more pronounced than the increase in the number of milk cows, indicating a marked improve- ment in the production per cow since 1889. The census of 1860 indicated that the main dairy-cattle sections were two: (1) the San Francisco Bay area, and (2) the Sacramento Valley. The bay counties (Marin, Sonoma, Napa, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo, and San Francisco)) con- tained 36.2 per cent of the dairy cows, while the Sacramento Valley accounted for 30.2 per cent. The San Joaquin Valley claimed 19.01 per cent of the animals and outside of the three sections mentioned dairying was of minor importance. During the two decades, 1860- 1870, and 1870-1880, the north and south coast sections (see tables 4, 5) witnessed the greatest growth both numerically and relatively, while the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys lost in numbers. A general shifting of the dairy-cow population of the state began in the period 1880-1890. The coastal sections, although maintaining approximately the same number of dairy cattle, began to lose their relative positions. Almost 58 per cent of the dairy cattle in the state were found in these two geographic divisions in 1880, while in 1925 there remained less than one-third. The Sacramento Valley, although gaining in absolute number of dairy cattle since 1880, has not in- creased so rapidly as either the San Joaquin Valley or southern California (figs. 2 and 3). The San Joaquin Valley has shown the most rapid growth of dairy-cow population in the state, containing one-tenth of the animals in 1880 and one-third in 1925. This growth has largely been the result of the development of irrigation and the subsequent growing of alfalfa. Between 1870 and 1890 the southern California dairy-cow popu- lation started to grow rapidly and this growth continued until 1900. Between 1900 and 1920 this section of the state held its relative posi- tion. During the five-year period 1920-1925, its dairy cows increased 34,755, making a relatively rapid growth. The expansion of the dairy industry in the southern section of the state was occasioned mainly by the rapid growth in population and the subsequent demand for market milk. In relative importance the southern section of the state 18 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION ranked next to the San Joaquin Valley in 1925. Since 1919-1920, when butterfat-production records were first made available, there has been a marked development in many of the mountain counties of the state, more distant from the chief centers of population. tach Dot - IOOO Cows Fig. 2. — Dairy cattle on farms, California, 1890. Until the great expansion in the irrigated areas of the state, the dairy industry was largely confined to the coast sections. The beginnings of the industry in the San Joaquin Valley can be detected. Relatively the Sacramento Valley was a more important dairy section in 1890 than in 1927. One dot = 1,000 cows. Data from table 1. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 19 Each Dot - IOOO Cou/s Fig. 3. — Milk cows in California, 1927. The largest numbers of dairy cattle are found in the San Joaquin Valley. Increases particularly in the vicinity of Los Angeles have been marked during the past few years. Pasture conditions in the coast sections north of Los Angeles County make for a considerable concen- tration in Humboldt, Sonoma, Marin, Alameda, Santa Clara, Monterey, and Santa Barbara counties. One dot = 1,000 cows. Data from E. E. Kaufman, Agricul- tural Statistician, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. of Agricultural Economics, cooperating with California State Dept. Agr., Sacramento, Calif. 20 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 4 Dairy Cows on Farms, California, 1860-1925 (Thousands, i.e., 000 omitted) California Geographic Divisions: North coast counties. South coast counties. Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley Southern California ... Mountain counties North coast counties: Del Norte Humboldt Klamath Trinity Mendocino Lake Sonoma Napa Marin Indian Reservations- South coast counties: San Francisco Alameda San Mateo Contra Costa Santa Clara Santa Cruz San Benito Monterey San Luis Obispo Sacramento Valley: Shasta Tehama Glenn Butte Yuba Colusa Sutter Nevada Placer Sacramento Yolo Solano El Dorado Amador San Joaquin Valley: San Joaquin Calaveras Stanislaus Tuolumne Merced Mariposa Madera Fresno Tulare Kings Kern 205 42 16 1870 164 1890 317 1900 307 1910 382 74 72 54 109 57 17 3 18 1 5 1 20 5 20 1920 502 62 173 77 18 1925- 557 112 17 Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 21 TABLE 4— (Continued) (Thousands, i.e., 000 omitted) 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1925-a 1925-b Southern California: 3 2 4 1 5 2 10 2 10 4 3 9 3 17 4 6 4 6 10 2 17 2 5 4 9 8 6 2 2 3 5 2 24 5 4 5 7 24 7 2 3 2 2 8 3 37 10 7 8 10 28 7 2 3 2 1 8 3 3 1 2 1 38 10 7 9 San Diego 2 1 4 7 11 29 Northern and Eastern Mountain counties: Siskiyou 6 3 4 2 2 4 1 4 3 3 4 1 6 3 3 4 1 8 4 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 Plumas 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 Eighth census of the U. S., Agriculture, Ninth census of the U. S., Statistics of Tenth census of the U. S., Statistics of Sources of data: 1860: Dept. Interior, Census Office, (p. 10). 1864. 1870, Dept. Interior, Census Office, agriculture (p. 105). 1880, Dept. Interior, Census Office, agriculture (p. 144). 1883. 1890, Dept. Interior, Census Office. Eleventh census of the U. S., Eeport on the statistics of agriculture (p. 278). 1895. 1900, Dept. Interior, Census Office. Twelfth census of the U. S., 5 : 420-422. 1902. 1910, calculations by author based upon census returns in Dept. Commerce and Labor, Bur. Census. Thirteenth census of the U. S., Abstract, with supplement for California (pp. 638-643). 1913. The 1910 statistics represent 81.83 per cent of the actual number recorded. Those recorded were animals born before January 1, 1909. The calculations represent estimates of those two years old or over. 1920, Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Fourteenth census of the U. S., State compendium, California (p. 80). 1924. 1925a, Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. U. S. census of agriculture: 1925. Cali- fornia (pp. 26-33). 1926. 19256, computations by author from data in 1925a. Notes regarding changes in boundaries of counties: Colusa — part taken to form Glenn in 1891; Del Norte — part annexed to Siskiyou between 1880-1890; Fresno — part taken to form Madera in 1893, and part annexed to Kings in 1909; Glenn — organized from part of Colusa, 1891; Humboldt — part of Klamath an- nexed in 1874; Imperial — organized from part of San Diego in 1907; Kings — organized from part of Tulare in 1893 and part of Fresno annexed in 1909; Lake — part annexed to Napa in 1872; Los Angeles — part taken to form Orange in 1889 ; Madera — organized from part of Fresno in 1893 ; Modoc — organized from part of Siskiyou in 1874; Monterey — part taken to form San Benito in 1874; Napa — part of Lake annexed in 1872; Orange — organized from part of Los Angeles in 1889; Biverside — organized from parts of San Bernardino and San Diego in 1893; San Benito — organized from part of Monterey in 1874; San Bernardino — part taken to form part of Biverside in 1893; San Diego — part taken to form part of Riverside in 1893; part taken to form Imperial in 1907; Santa Barbara — part taken to form Ventura in 1871; Siskiyou — part taken to form Modoc in 1874, a part of Klamath annexed in 1874, and a part of Del Norte annexed between 1880 and 1890; Tulare — part taken to form Kings in 1893; Ventura — organized from part of Santa Barbara in 1871. 22 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 5 Percentage Distribution of Dairy Cattle on Farms in California, 1860-1925 California. Geographic Divisions: North coast counties. South coast counties. Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley Mountain counties Southern California... North coast counties: Del Norte Humboldt Trinity Mendocino Lake Sonoma Napa Mann Indian Reservations... South coast counties: San Francisco Alameda San Mateo Contra Costa Santa Clara Santa Cruz San Benito Monterey San Luis Obispo Sacramento Valley: Shasta Tehama Glenn Butte Yuba Colusa Sutter Nevada Plaser Sacramento Yolo Solano El Dorado Amador San Joaquin Valley: San Joaquin Calaveras Stanislaus Tuolumne Merced Mariposa Madera Fresno Tulare Kings Kern 100.00 20.48 22.15 30.20 19.01 3.91 4.25 0.44 0.79. 0.37, 4.05 7.81 2.90 3.78 0.58 7.74 2.40 4.91 3.60 1.00 1.48 0.44 0.84 2.16 2.63 1.68 2.14 1.82 0.58 1.03 5.64 4.41 2.49 2.14 2.63 3.75 1.77 4.62 0.86 0.47 0.88 4.24 2.42 1870 100.00 28.76 25.13 11.22 0.43 3.47 0.26 2.09 1.11 9.12 0.69 11.37 1.93 2.23 3.13 3.27 4.60 1.32 5.71 2.93 0.74 1.31 1.42 1.77 1 62 2.21 0.70 0.95 5 51 2.25 2.51 2.32 0.90 4.27 1.22 1.38 1.02 0.53 0.56 0.61 1.24 0.38 100.00 31 59 26.06 17.74 9.99 7.22 7.40 1.04 4.99 0.29 2.13 70 8.73 1.95 11.76 2.01 2.58 3.19 2.03 4.36 1.64 1.29 2.71 6.27 0.93 0.89 1.29 1.10 1.11 0.92 0.86 0.88 3.54 1.58 1.94 1.64 1.07 1.78 0.98 1.03 1.10 1.04 0.30 21 0.75 0.75 1890 100 00 26.70 28.50 16.72 11.22 5.21 11.65 0.90 4.70 0.22 1.67 0.66 7.75 1.79 9.00 1.39 1.94 3.75 1.91 2.55 1.54 1.72 4.88 8.83 1.09 0.79 1.11 0.53 1.11 0.76 0.64 0.95 3.27 1.21 2.89 1.24 1.13 1.55 0.61 0.85 0.31 0.96 0.52 1.88 3.01 1.52 1900 100.00 28.12 20.66 14.19 15.71 6.19 15.13 1.09 6.87 0.23 1.96 0.63 6.94 1.44 8.90 0.06 1.63 2.71 2.59 1.98 2.40 1.51 1.30 3.12 3.42 0.87 0.69 0.44 0.87 0.48 0.56 0.89 0.60 0.68 2.86 1.94 1.84 0.85 0.62 2.59 0.47 1.44 0.49 1.33 0.25 35 4.45 2.26 1.10 0.97 1910 100 00 19.24 18.80 14.07 28.43 4.56 14.90 0.76 4.62 0.17 1.38 0.32 5.34 1.34 5.31 0.35 1.96 1.74 2.03 2.58 0.90 1.03 3.00 5.18 0.63 0.74 0.79 1.01 0.48 0.67 1.44 0.51 0.52 2.56 1.54 1.99 0.60 0.59 2.55 0.39 42 38 21 19 34 4.76 5.73 3.98 1.48 1920 100.00 18.28 15.93 12.34 34.51 3.59 15.35 0.79 4.81 0.08 1.35 0.38 4.97 0.96 4.94 0.04 2.35 1.38 1.98 2.40 67 0.68 2.98 3.46 0.31 0.64 1.09 1.18 0.36 0.56 1.07 0.37 0.41 2.51 1.43 1.68 0.47 0.25 4.23 0.17 7.22 0.17 6.30 0.04 1.05 4.64 5.76 3.60 1.33 1925-a 100.00 17.00 15.83 10.83 33.44 3.03 19.87 2.00 1.76 1.53 2.13 0.61 0.47 3.75 3.58 0.44 0.61 1.36 0.97 0.45 0.58 0.70 0.24 0.42 1.76 1.56 1.19 0.35 0.19 4.42 0.11 6.61 0.18 6.19 0.01 1.11 4.08 5.38 3.58 1.78 Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 23 TABLE 5— (Continued) i860 1870 1890 1900 1910 1920 1925- 1925-b Southern California: Santa Barbara Ventura Los Angeles San Bernardino Orange Riverside San Diego Imperial Northern and eastern mountain counties: Siskiyou Modoc Plumas Sierra Alpine ... Mono Inyo 1.32 1.65 0.36 1.50 0.38 1.81 0.49 2.36 1 00 0.87 0.77 1 74 3.02 0.84 0.05 1.09 2.11 0.54 0.53 0.33 0.48 1.72 1 .13 0.93 1.71 0.66 15 0.32 0.61 3.17 0.76 3.28 1.37 0.93 2.13 1.26 0.96 0.82 1.25 0.32 05 21 0.34 2 80 0.82 5.38 1.22 1.85 1.16 1.90 1.84 0.84 1.04 1.23 0.44 0.13 0.17 0.51 2 50 57 4.39 0.65 1.32 1.12 2.28 2.07 1.50 0.62 0.62 0.74 0.33 0.16 0.10 49 1 04 0.44 4.82 0.94 0.80 1.02 1.44 4.86 1.46 0.45 0.55 0.40 0.32 0.04 0.03 35 1.40 0.54 6.60 1.83 1 20 1.50 1.79 5.02 1.24 42 0.45 0.30 0.24 0.04 04 30 1.38 0.54 6.54 1.79 1.18 1.50 92 1.40 0.68 0.54 0.41 0.24 0.05 0.05 0.33 Source of data: All computations by the author based upon data in table 4. See notes at foot of table 4. Estimates made January 1, 1927, indicate that the number of cows and heifers kept for milk in California has increased 15.7 per cent since January 1, 1920 (table 3, p. 14). Estimates based on careful analyses of the data on hand (table 11, p. 38) indicate that actual butterfat production in the state has increased between 30 and 40 per cent during the years 1920-1926. Exact comparison is impossible because of differences between calendar and fiscal-year statistics. Estimated population growth during the period has been about 33 per cent. The apparent increase in the imports of dairy products into the state has no doubt come about through a larger per- capita consumption and a greatly increased export of concentrated milk. Taking the eleven western states as a unit there is not, from the evidence at hand, a shortage of dairy products. While receipts at only a few of the markets in the United States are available, indications are that the shipments from the western states (in milk equivalents) are greater than the shipments into the area from other parts of the nation. The area apparently has a surplus of butter and concentrated milk and a deficiency of cheese. The percentage of milk cows of the United States in the eleven western states is approximately the same as the percentage of the country's population living in this area. On account of the larger 24 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION production of milk per cow in this area, the percentage of milk produced (1924) exceeded the percentage of milk cows reported on July 1, 1925. During 1924 the western states produced 10.7 per cent of the milk with approximately 8.5 per cent of the milk cows. Cali- fornia's percentages were 3.7 and 2.6, respectively. It is of passing interest to note that California's estimated population on July 1, 1926, made up 3.7 per cent of the total of the continental United States. On January 1, 1927, California possessed 596,000 milk cows (2.73 per cent of the number in the United States). Ratio of Dairy Cows to Dairy Heifers. — There was in California on January 1, 1927, one heifer (one to two years old) for each 4.4 cows kept for milk (table 6), compared with the ratio 1:5.3 for the United States. The western states since 1920 and California since 1923 have maintained a smaller ratio than the nation and its sub- divisions, indicating that the western section is increasing the number of dairy cows more rapidly than other sections. Accompanying the decline in milk cows in 1926 was an increase in the number of heifers being raised. TABLE 6 Number of Dairy Cows per Heifer, United States and Subdivisions, 1920-1927 Date United States North Atlantic states North Central states South Atlantic states South Central states Western states California Jan. 1 1920 1921 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.3 5 5 6 3 6.9 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.5 6.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.2 5 6 5.2 4.9 5.2 5 6 5.3 5 2 5.7 6.1 5.6 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.0 4.8 5 5.3 5 1 4.6 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 5.2 1922 5.5 1923 4.7 1924 3.9 1925 1926 4.4 4.4 1927 4.4 Source of data: Computations by author based upon data in U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets, 4: p. 38. 1927. Warren and Pearson 4 call attention to certain sections of the country (north central and south central states) where feed is cheap and many heifers of a dual-purpose type are raised. This, however, is not generally true of California at present and the indicated in- crease, therefore, in dairy cattle will be relatively greater in Califor- nia than the figures in table 6 would indicate. 4 Warren, G. F., and F. A. Pearson. Katio of dairy cows to dairy heifers. N. Y. State Col. Agr., Farm Economics (p. 506). Aug., 1926. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 25 p 9* g g Co ^ >— ! tr 1 3 26 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF DAIRYING United States. — The production of dairy products closely follows the milk-cow population, the latter being generally found in sections where hay is grown extensively or climatic conditions favor the maintenance of green pastures (fig. 4). Population exerts an in- fluence on this distribution, on account of the economic advantages of producing market milk in proximity to centers of human popula- tion. On January 1, 1927, the northeastern states (north of the Ohio river and east of the Mississippi) claimed almost 39 per cent of the milk cows of the country. On the addition of the west north central states to this area the percentage rises to nearly 65 per cent. Numerically, the southern states are second in importance in the dairy-cattle population, and in these states it is fairly well distributed. (Number of cows and heifers, two years old or over, kept for milk in the south Atlantic and south central states, January 1, 1927, = 5,384,000 or 24.67 per cent of the total in the country.) Production is low in the South (fig. 7, p. 39). Scattered over the arid western section of the United States are relatively large numbers of dairy cattle in the irrigation centers, and in addition to this development there is considerable concentration of dairy cattle in the more humid section of the North Pacific Coast (fig. 4). The aggregate number of milk cows in the western section (Pacific Coast states and mountain states) is small in comparison with the United States as a whole (1,934,000 or 8.9 per cent). PURE-BRED DAIRY CATTLE The 1920 census showed that approximately 2.9 per cent of the dairy cattle of the United States were pure-bred, while California returns showed 2.5 per cent (fig. 5) Most of the pure-bred cattle in 1920 were in the northeastern states. Of the registered dairy cattle in 1920 about 58 per cent were Holstein-Friesian, 25 per cent Jerseys, 9 per cent Guernseys, 3 per cent Ayrshires, and 1 per cent Brown Swiss. Unfortunately, data are not available from the 1925 farm census. Taking the yearly registrations from 1915 to 1925 as a basis, the increase in the number of registrations for the three breeds were as follows: Guernsey, 184.8 per cent; Holstein-Friesian, 72.4 per cent; and Jersey, 54 per cent. 5 5 Straight-line trends were fitted to the yearly registration data, the resulting equations being: Guernsey 2/=20,464.9+1965.8 x Holstein y = 98,703.5+5243.9 x Jersey 2/=43, 617. 9+1856.9 x with origins at 1920. Bui/. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 27 Fig. 5. — Pure-bred dairy cattle in the United States, 1920. Pure-bred dairy cattle are widely distributed over the United States, the greatest number being found in the northeastern and Great Lake states. In number per state, New York was first in 1920, Wisconsin second, California twelfth, Oregon seventeenth and Washington eighteenth. Figure furnished by courtesy of the U. S. Dept. Agr. Data from 1920 census. Fig. 6. — Percentages of pure-bied bulls in the United States, 1920. In 1920, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and Arizona had more than 50 per cent of their dairy bulls pure-bred. For the most part those states with the largest percentage of their dairy cattle pure-bred have the largest percentage of their bulls pure-bred, and also have the largest average production of milk per cow. (Compare with fig. 7, p. 39.) Figure by courtesy of the U. S. Dept. Agr. Data from 1920 census. 28 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Information with reference to the trend in the number of pure- bred animals within the state is very meager. Officials of the Holstein- Friesian Association have expressed the opinion that the number of pure-bred Holsteins in each state is closely correlated with the membership of the Holstein-Friesian Association in that state. If this be true California contained approximately 2.1 per cent of the pure-bred Holsteins in the United States in 1926. This state has experienced a more rapid growth than the nation as a whole, the increase in membership in this state from 1915 to 1926 being 224.4 per cent while the increase in the entire country was 165.4 per cent. 6 Registrations of Guernsey cattle within the state since 1919 also point to an upward trend more rapid than that of Holsteins during the same period. Comparable data for Jerseys and Ayrshires could not be obtained. In the number of pure-bred dairy bulls the northwestern and western states rank high (fig. 6). The effects of this can be seen in the production per cow in the various sections of the country. Owing to the dairy improvement work of the Agricultural Extension Service of the University of California there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of pure-bred bulls in California. THE GENERAL DAIRY SITUATION IMPORTANCE OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY, UNITED STATES According to the census of 1920, dairy cattle were reported on 70.8 per cent of the farms of the United States. Cows were milked on 78.3 per cent of the farms in 1924. In addition to these, there were a considerable number within the limits of towns and villages. In 1920 the number over two years old thus enumerated was 1,220,564 or 6.2 per cent of the number on farms (19,675,297). Unfortunately, similar data from the 1925 farm census are not yet available. On the basis of aggregate value, in 1926 dairy products ranked first among farm products of the United States, exceeding the value of corn, cotton, hay and forage, and total vegetables produced. The crops not fed to livestock had an estimated farm value of $5,685,000,000, while animal products aggregated $7,300,000,000 (table 7). Three major divisions comprised the animal-products group: (1) dairy products, accounting for 40.3 per cent of the animal products' total; (2) animals raised, 42.0; (3) poultry products, 16.2. e Straight-line trends fitted to the entire membership of the Holstein-Friesian Association from 1915-1926 gave the following equation: y — 18827.3 + 1420.1a;, and for the membership in California the equation was y c= 387.3 -f 34.1 x. Bul.437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 29 Wool, together with minor products, made up the remaining 1.5 per cent. If the dairy animals slaughtered were included under the first group the dairy industry would make up an even larger percentage of the gross value of farm production. TABLE 7 Estimated Gross Value of Farm Products, United States, 1919-1926 (In millions of dollars, i.e., 000,000 omitted) Crops Animal products Total crops not fed and animal products Dairy products Per cent dairy products are of Year Gross Not fed to live stock Total animal products Crops not fed and animal products 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1919 16,561 11,578 7,759 9,430 10,401 10,770 10,170 9,266 9,402 7,102 4,679 5,560 6,111 6,317 6,387 5,685 8,275 7,709 5,589 5,651 6,271 5,902 6,647 7,300 17,677 14,811 10,268 11,211 12,382 12,219 13,034 12,985 2,970 2,885 2,217 2,097 2,652 2,586 2,746 2,952 35.9 37.4 39.7 37.1 42.3 43.8 41 3 40.3 16 8 1920 19.5 1921 21 6 1922.... 18 7 1923 21 4 1324.... 21 2 1925 21.1 1926 22.7 Sources of data: Cols. 1, 2, 3, and 4, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets, 4: p. 251. 1927. Col. 5, U. S. Dept. Agr. Farm production. U. S. Dept. Agr. Yearbook, 1923: 1143-1144. 1924. U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets, 2: p. 84. 1924; ibid., 3: p. 226. 1926; ibid., 4: p. 251. 1927. Cols. 6 and 7. Computations by author; col. 6 = col. 5 divided by col. 3; col. 7 p= col. 5 divided by col. 4. The production of meat, although secondary to milk production, is nevertheless an important factor in the dairy business. The United States Department of Agriculture has estimated 7 that more than 23 per cent of the total carcass beef in 1920 was produced from dairy cattle and that probably 80 per cent of all the calves -slaughtered were of dairy breeding. It is difficult, if not impossible, to measure the material contribu- tions which dairy cattle make to soil fertility. This factor is often lost from view. During the eight years, 1919-1926 (inclusive) there has been a tendency for dairy products to occupy a more important position among all farm and animal products. 7 Larson, C. W. The dairy industrv. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1922: p. 338. 1923. 30 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 8 Total Farms and Cows Milked in the United States, 1925 Total farms in state Farms reporting cows milked Cows milked State Number 2 Percentage of total farms 3 Number 4 Per farm reporting 5 237,564 10,802 221,995 136,409 58,025 23,240 10,257 59,217 249,101 40,582 225,597 195,786 213,481 165,879 258,511 132,451 50,033 49,001 33,454 192,326 188,227 257,227 260,484 46,896 127,727 3,913 21,065 29,671 31,687 188,754 283,492 75,970 244,703 197,215 55,911 200,443 3,911 172,767 79,535 252,669 466,395 25,992 27,786 193,716 73,267 90,380 193,155 15,509 139 183,666 6,438 159,655 65,630 45,771 18,439 7,523 23,382 176,121 31,931 204,602 173,502 199,895 146,705 214,010 73,574 38,859 36,587 23,774 162,998 170,515 164,311 224,488 34,381 114,474 2,515 15,263 19,338 16,443 154,961 177,007 67,305 214,841 162,915 43,345 165,727 3,086 107,607 68,724 208,155 334,973 20,854 24,044 156,493 54,879 80,126 177,486 11,427 48 77.31 59.60 71.92 48.11 78.88 79.34 73.35 39.49 70.70 78.68 90.69 88.62 93.64 88.44 82.79 55.55 77.67 74.67 71.06 84.75 90.59 63.88 86.18 73.31 89.62 64.27 72.46 65.17 51.89 82.10 72.44 88.59 87.80 82.61 77.52 82.68 78.91 62.28 86.41 82.38 71.82 80.23 86.53 80.78 74.90 88.65 91.89 73.68 34.53 325,578 33,317 332,241 540,295 229,700 109,834 32,589 62,940 331,397 151,722 943,799 656,898 1,202,142 694,454 469,194 164,896 150,433 173,170 141,234 823,118 1,407,219 358,044 808,732 167,967 566,619 18,768 77,652 117,099 60,594 1,347,975 296,805 446,695 931,717 526,681 206,869 873,015 21,855 163,233 451,751 447,597 849,240 82,898 268,122 375,594 276,010 219,342 1,904,869 57,849 582 1.8 Arizona 5.2 Arkansas 2.1 California 8.2 Colorado 5.0 Connecticut 6.0 4.3 2.7 Georgia 1.9 Idaho 4.8 Illinois 4.6 Indiana 3.8 Iowa 6.0 Kansas 4.7 Kentucky 2.2 Louisiana 2.2 Maine 3.9 Maryland 4.7 Massachusetts 5.9 5.0 8.3 2.2 3.6 Montana 4.9 Nebraska 4.9 Nevada 7.5 New Hampshire 5 1 New Jersey 6.1 New Mexico 3.7 New York 8.7 North Carolina 1.7 North Dakota 6.6 Ohio 4.3 3.2 Oregon 4.8 5.3 7.1 South Carolina South Dakota .*. 1.5 6.6 2.2 Texas 2.5 Utah 4.0 Vermont 11.2 2.4 Washington 5.0 Wisconsin Wyoming 2.7 10.7 5.1 District of Columbia 12.1 Totals 6,372,263 4,988,493 78.28 19,272,110 3.86 Sources of data: U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census, culture: 1925. County tables. 1927. U. S. Census of Agri- BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 31 THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY IN CALIFORNIA The dairy industry in this state is more specialized than in the United States as a whole, the 1925 farm census indicating that cows milked in California in 1924 were kept on only 48.1 per cent of the farms, while the corresponding percentage for the United States was 78.3. Returns show that the average number of cows milked per farm for the United States was approximately 3 ; for California the number was 3.9. 8 Comparisons between the value of dairy products and other products in this state are difficult to make. The California State Department of Agriculture reports that the farm value of the milk fat (butterfat) sold in 1926 was $72,383,000 and the wholesale value of the dairy products amounted to $130,130,782. 9 (These items are not inclusive of the butter and cheese made in small amounts on farms.) If to these items were added the value of animals sold for slaughter, manure produced, etc., the dairy industry would appear to be among the most important in the state from the standpoint of the aggregate value of the products produced. The estimated farm values of the leading crops in 1926 were : 10 1. Oranges $72,000,000 2. Hay (tame and wild) 62,541,000 3. Grapes (raisin, table, and wine) 52,955,000 4. Peaches . 19,890,000 5. Barley 18,792,000 Data for the farm value of the products of other animal industries have not been compiled for recent years except for poultry and wool. The value of poultry products in 1924 was estimated at $44,423,606 and that of wool at $7,803,135. 11 Intensity of Dairying, California. — Indications point to a slight tendency toward larger and relatively fewer herds of dairy cattle in California if statistics from 1920 to 1925 are compared. In 1920 approximately 54.1 per cent of the farms of the state reported dairy cattle while in 1924 the percentages reporting cows milked and dairy cattle were 48.1 and 43.3 respectively. s Preliminary computations by author on the basis of the 1925 farm census. 9 Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Publication 71: 1-47. 1927. !0 Mimeographed report, California Dept. of Agriculture, issued Jan. 5, 1927. n U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bureau Census. United States Census of Agricul- ture: 1925, California (p. 7). 1926. 32 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION <* t~- o OO -* co CO CO in ^ Tt< CO o "0 CO TH CO Ol CO 00 00 00 ■* Ol CM OO C 9 co »* o» ~ 1-H CO 1- CO -f o OS CM M lO M 00 CO CO t~ Ol CO o ee ■^1 °. °! t- tr. 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CO 0) JS o 1 a - a a 3 co M e. 3 £ a ■n -r d p cj c 01 sr 1 > (- «. > o o C C L, t: g j "3 1 "3 1 a c 4, 1 £ T a C •x i CO *■ SI " 1 !■ E B c c C a E £ 1 £ 1 t X CD CO Ol ft >> "3 4 3 a 8 i cp £ f c £ 1,5 c ! < e c 1 £ a T t t j- c c T a \ i T C c I - a a IE 8 T a D C a — c c s T a c a a c i 1 T a E a X 9 & a t- ~ c a a ~ g E s ij , El e -^ 51 'a £ T c T3 C el n c3 * *^ * "S a E c 1 1 £ | "i £ CT — 3 'c s s i c "cc > - c £ ja o : > > S DC c3 cc a a 5 ; 5 X PC O C i* C^ t ric § < c P 5 < ^ PC c c E- -S 5 i2 o o o •3-3 .2 i2 2 -2 c d c d 0) CJ CD > > > 'i CO CO CO CO «*- TJ TJ -0 T3 G G G G cp G 3 G 3 3 O O O O -^ ft ft ft ft > o o o o G S I I § u o* o" o" o" C3 o o o o (£] q q q oi_ 1 to o to* oo" I i-H CM CM CO Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 33 TABLE 10 Numbers and Percentages of Farms with Milk Cows, California, 1925 Section and county North coast Del Norte Humboldt Trinity Mendocino Lake Sonoma Napa Marin South coast San Francisco Alameda San Mateo Contra Costa Santa Clara Santa Cruz San Benito Monterey San Luis Obispo Sacramento Valley . Shasta Tehama Glenn Butte Yuba Colusa Sutter Nevada Placer Sacramento Yolo Solano El Dorado Amador San Joaquin Valley San Joaquin Calaveras Stanislaus Tuolumne Merced Mariposa Madera Fresno Tulare Kings Kern Farms Total number 219 153 258 223 809 978 350 887 761 250 17 149 981 938 959 232 997 922 055 924 195 785 544 465 704 ,139 ,694 40S ,44* ,921 ,852 ,524 883 362 ,457 ,640 022 ,177 57S ,722 270 ,721 ,463 ,106 ,359 ,793 Report- ing cows milked 9,033 146 1,898 129 1,269 530 3,542 924 595 8,751 1,515 400 871 2,088 1,029 478 959 1,411 11,090 707 1,035 1,046 1,170 455 541 775 313 684 1,774 1,125 777 544 144 22,633 2,873 414 3,455 278 2,306 168 899 4,959 4,091 1,626 1,564 Report- ing dairy 8,339 142 1,677 88 1,156 478 3,331 883 584 8,000 1,363 387 832 2,025 1,007 361 825 1,200 8,967 477 828 921 978 286 444 603 262 631 1,527 1,019 564 393 34 21,114 2,593 127 3,371 271 2,228 13 734 4,720 3,940 1,592 1,525 Total number cows milked 95,825 4,544 25,310 400 7,656 1,871 26,481 4,193 25,370 78,565 10,180 8,201 6,295 12,059 3,332 2,723 16,852 18,923 60,664 3,140 3,812 6,969 7,719 2,487 3,162 3,991 1,438 2,173 8,530 7,994 5,786 2,221 1,242 181,348 24,033 1,144 35,347 993 32,022 320 5,920 23,064 30,013 19,527 8,965 Cows nnlked per farm report- ing 10.6 31.1 13.3 3.1 5.9 3.5 7.5 4.5 42.6 9.0 6.7 20.5 7.2 5.8 3.2 5.7 17.6 13.4 5.5 4.4 3.7 6.7 6.6 5.5 5.8 5.2 4.6 3.2 4.8 7.1 7.5 4 1 8.6 8 8.4 2.8 10.2 3.6 13.9 1.9 6 6 4.7 7.3 12 5.7 Percentage of— Farms on which cows were milked 7 63.5 95.4 84.1 57.8 70.1 54.2 55.8 54.8 78.2 43.2 48.1 40.8 44.9 30.0 46.1 47.9 49.9 68.7 53.0 59.2 58.0 67.7 47.5 64.6 47.5 45.8 76.7 47.2 45.2 60.7 51.0 61.6 39.8 55.9 50.9 66.6 66.7 48 1 62.0 60.9 52.2 47.4 55 6 68.9 56 Farms report- ing dairy cows 58.7 92.8 43.3 39.5 42.9 29.1 45.1 36.2 42.9 58.4 42.9 39.9 46.4 59.7 39.7 40.6 39.0 35.6 64.2 43.6 38.9 55.0 37.1 44.5 9.4 2 4 52 20. 65.9 46.9 59.9 4.7 42.7 45.1 55 5 67.5 54.6 Farms report- ing dairy bulls or calves 23.3 81.7 39.3 20.2 27.1 17.7 15.5 11.8 54.3 12.6 9.7 20.2 11.0 5.5 9.0 12.3 19.4 37.1 16.9 22.9 20.4 36.3 14.7 19.2. 16.8 14.2 34.3 11.4 6.1 23.8 14.1 20.1 5.5 22 8 18.8 7.2 34.7 18.7 38.2 2.5 20.3 12.9 21.6 37.8 23.8 34 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 10— (Continued) Farms Total number cows milked 5 Cows milked per farm report- ing 6 Percentage of— Section and county Total number 2 Report- ing cows milked 3 Report- ing dairy cows 4 Farms on which cows were milked 7 Farms report- dairy cows 8 Farms report- ing dairy bulls or calves 9 37,671 1,363 1,647 12,380 5,697 4,466 4,960 3,967 3,191 2,892 952 670 425 181 68 23 91 482 12,022 887 923 2,698 1,263 1,059 1,892 1,644 1,656 2,101 638 531 336 142 60 13 44 337 11,371 816 880 2,588 1,216 989 1,764 1,524 1,594 1,327 343 266 247 112 49 7 35 268 104,353 7,103 2,904 36,024 9,867 6,087 8,131 8,982 25,255 19,540 7,148 3,596 2,829 2,270 1,325 218 272 1,882 8.7 8.0 3.2 13 4 7.8 5.8 4.3 5.5 15.3 9.3 11.2 6.8 8.4 16.0 22.1 16.8 6.2 5.6 31.9 65.1 56.0 21.8 22.2 23.7 38.1 41.4 51.9 72.6 67.0 79.3 79.1 78.5 88.2 56.5 48.4 69.9 30.2 59.9 53.4 20.9 21.3 22.2 35.6 38.4 50.0 45.9 36.0 39.7 58.1 61.9 72.1 30.4 38.5 55.6 10 1 18.4 9.8 7.2 6.9 5 4 10 3 11 6 28.3 32.9 25.8 30.0 39.8 55.3 55.9 30.4 18.7 36.1 State totals and averages.. 136,413 65,630 59,118 540,295 8.2 48.1 43.3 17.2 Source of data: Cols. 2, 3, 4, and 5, U. S. Dept. Commerce. U. S. Census of Agriculture: 1925, California, county tables, 8-13, 1927. Cols. 6, 7, 8, 9: computations by author; col. 6 = col. 5 divided by col. 3; col. 7 — col. 3 divided by col. 2 ; col. 8 = col. 4 divided by col. 2 ; col. 9 = number of farms reporting bulls or dairy calves divided by col. 2. A larger percentage of the farmers in the mountain counties milked cows than in any other section of the state according to the 1925 farm census. The north coast, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley, south coast, and southern California counties followed in order (table 10). Since the mountain counties reported a large number of beef cattle milked, the percentage of farms reporting dairy cattle is also enumerated in table 10. A rough approximation to the amount of dairy blood in the cows milked might be obtained by com- paring the percentages of dairy cows and cows milked. It is evident that in the southern section of the state the percentages of farms reporting dairy cows and cows milked differs but little. On the other hand, there is a wide difference between these percentages in the mountain counties. The number of farms reporting dairy cows in the Sacramento Valley is low compared with the number on which cows were milked. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 35 In order to give an approximation to the percentage of farms which operated as commercial dairy farms the percentages of those reporting dairy bulls or calves is given in table 10. Approximately 25 per cent of the farms of the state reported dairy cows but neither dairy bulls or calves. It is highly probable that in this category would be included many of those who were not largely dependent on the dairy business. Only 17.2 per cent of the farms in the state reported either dairy bulls or calves. The north coast and the mountain counties contained the largest number of cows milked per farm, both when the total number of farms was considered and when only those on which cows were milked were taken into account. The Sacramento Valley was far below the average of the state in both connections. DAIRY-FEED CONDITIONS IN CALIFORNIA Coast Counties. — Dairying is carried on in almost all parts of California, under widely different conditions. Production in the coast counties is influenced more by climatic conditions, especially rainfall, than in most other sections of the state. Seasonal variation in production is pronounced. Indices of seasonal variation calculated from receipts at a number of plants in Humboldt County indicate that on the basis of 100 as a. normal the production for the various months is as follows : 12 January 36.60 July 144.28 February 24.52 August 125.36 March 69.38 September 106.85 April 138.83 October 97.48 May 166.90 November 76.15 June 155.58 December 58.07 South of the Humboldt area the months of low production usually occur in the fall, September to November, varying with the season. The peak months, on the other hand, usually fall during March to May. In the Humboldt-Del Norte area the use of pasture crops, usually clover and rye grass, is an outstanding practice. To supple- ment the pasture, use is made of soiling crops and roots. Considerable use is made of concentrates. In the Marin-Sonoma area pasture is commonly utilized during the months of April, May, June, and July. During the remainder of the year cows are fed hay and concentrates witli some succulent feeds such as silage, carrots, potatoes, and pumpkins. Oat hay is the prin- cipal roughage, although some alfalfa is imported from other sections. 12 Calculations based upon Persons ' method of link relatives. 36 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Many of the dairies in the Monterey-San Benito-Santa Cruz area operate with irrigated alfalfa and other field crops. Pasture, either natural or alfalfa or grain stubble, is common practice. Alfalfa hay is usually fed either alone or as a supplement to the pasture. Various succulent feeds such as silage, sugar-beet tops, green alfalfa, green barley, green grass, potatoes, sugar beets roots, and carrots are often utilized. Dairying is a major and important enterprise in the San Luis Obispo section, being conducted on the rolling hills and small valleys with much of the land in pasture. Pasture is more or less available the year round; the best of it is available from April to October. Oat hay is the common roughage, and with roots, squashes, and con- centrates, it is utilized during the remainder of the year, in amounts depending on the carrying capacity of the pasture. 13 Sacramento and Sa?i Joaquin Valleys. — In the interior valley from Red Bluff to Bakersfield and from the Sierra Nevada Mountains to the Coast Range, intensive dairying is practiced. Land values are high in a large part of this area, and the dairyman must purchase or rent land on the basis of the returns from fruit growing, truck gar- dening, and other intensive farming enterprises. In this basin with its long, warm summers, seasonable variation is not great. The main feedstuff used for dairy cattle in this section is alfalfa, and the expan- sion of the industry is dependent to a large degree upon the alfalfa acreage. There is a high degree of correlation 14 between the actual number of dairy cattle over two years old and the alfalfa acreage (using 1925 data in both instances). Mountain Counties. — In the northern interior counties of Shasta and Siskiyou, and in counties along the eastern boundary of the state will be found numerous valleys varying in size from a few thousand acres to many square miles, where irrigation is possible and in many instances already practiced. Although mountain range is convenient and cheap, alfalfa is grown to a considerable extent in certain of the valleys. Both pasture and alfalfa hay are utilized. This area has been extending its dairy operations during the past few years. Southern California. — In that part of the state south of Kern and San Luis Obispo counties, the two principal dairy sections are in I jos Angeles and Imperial counties. Dairying for the purpose of supplying market milk is carried on in other sections of the southern portion of the state. The basic feed is alfalfa, although outside of 13 Adams, R. L. The cost of producing market milk and butterfat on 246 California dairies. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 372: 1-164, figs. 1-9. 1923. 14 Coefficient of correlation r= + 0.964. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 37 Imperial Valley much of it has to be imported. Imperial Valley with its water supply and warm, long growing season can produce a large amount of feed per acre. Seasonal variation in production is not large. Dairying, however, must meet competition with cantaloupe, cotton, lettuce, and early-vegetable crops. AVEKAGE PRODUCTION PEE COW IN CALIFORNIA California ranks high in the average production of milk and butterfat per cow. In 1919 the estimated production of milk per cow in the United States was 366 gallons (2947.6 pounds). 15 During the same year the production reported per cow in California was 536 gallons 16 (4609.6 pounds). This latter production was exceeded by only two states — Washington with 571 gallons (4910.6 pounds) and Rhode Island with 550 gallons (4830 pounds) (fig. 7). The figures quoted included only milk reported from farms, estimates being omitted. It is estimated that the average milk production per cow milked in the United States during 1924 was 440 gallons (3784 pounds), while for California it was 630 gallons (5418 pounds). 17 The same general conclusions with reference to California 's high aver- age milk production will be reached if instead of computing the milk production per cow milked the average production of milk cows on farms is computed 18 (table 13). California's record is exceeded only by that of New Jersey with 651 gallons (5599 pounds). 19 While the statistics for 1924 are not strictly comparable with those for 1919, indications are that there has been a decided increase in the production of milk per cow. In making comparisons between states the fact that different breeds are more largely represented in certain states, thus making for a decided difference in milk flow, should not be overlooked. Several states report comparatively large numbers of cows of the beef breeds milked, the result being that the production of milk per cow in those states is low. California, on the other hand, is highly special- ized in its dairying operations, only 20,685 cows of beef breeds being milked out of a total of 540,295 cows used for milk purposes. 20 is U. S. Dept. Commerce, Fourteenth census of the U. S., 1920, 5: p. 654. is Ibid., p. 657. 17 U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau Census. U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1925, California, p. 26. 1926. is The 1925 Farm Census reported the number of cows actually milked. The Bur. Agr. Econ. has made an estimate of the number of cows kept for milk purposes (table 3, p. 14). 19 U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau Census. U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1925, New Jersey, p. 15. 1926. 20 U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bureau Census. U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1925, California, p. 26. 1926. 38 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 11 Estimated Average Butterfat Production of Milk Cows, Two Years Old and Over, in California, 1920-1926 Year 1 Milk cows, number 2 Total butterfat production, pounds 3 Average butterfat production per milk cow 4 1920 * 522,500 540,000 565,000 587,500 587,000 587,500 596,000 95,598,555 102,554,689 112,751,390 122,665,521 125,458,622 125,043,036 129,085,384 183 1921 189 9 1922 199 6 1923 208 8 1924 213.7 1925 212 8 1926 216.6 Sources of data: Col. 2, 1920-1926; number of milk cows for each year in California based upon averages of estimates for January 1 of each year, e.g. : 1920 = average of number of milk cows on January 1, 1920 and January 1, 1921. Original data in the following: Kaufman, E. E. California crop report, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 74: p. 45. 1927. Col. 3, 1920-1924, butterfat production is the average of production of two succeeding fiscal years, e.g., 1920 == average of production for 1919-1920 and 1920-1921. 1925-1926 data obtained for calendar years. Original data in col. 3 from J. J. Frey. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71: p. 18. 1927. Col. 4 = col. 3 divided by col. 2. TABLE 12 Partial Sales of Pure-Bred Dairy Cows and Heifers, California, 1921-1923 Record of dam Open heifers Bred heifers Total Pounds of butterfat in seven days Number Average price Number Average price Number Average price Over 30 24 39 59 115 $533.33 340.96 215.30 215.02 19 41 57 62 $687.89 411.58 348.07 332.82 43 80 116 177 $601.63 25.0-29.99 377.16 20 0-24.99 278.08 Under 20.0 256.29 237 307 268.05 $151 02 179 159 391.81 $221.54 416 466 321.30 $175.08 Seven-day butterfat record of animal sold Cows 2, 3, and 4 years Cows 5, 6, 7, and 8 years Over 30 . ... 8 28 71 153 $850.00 706.79 583.73 398.82 36 67 89 74 $916.95 669.32 416.35 304.12 44 95 160 227 $904.77 25.0-29.99... . 680.37 20 0-24.99 490.63 Under 20 367.95 260 369 496.37 $309.69 266 146 516.60 $288.70 526 515 506.60 $303.74 Source of data : Computations by author on basis of records compiled by Arthur Folger, Division of Animal Husbandry, University of California. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 39 40 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 13 Milk Produced on Farms by Divisions and States and Average Milk Production per Cow (Million gallons, i.e., 000,000 omitted) Milk produced in millions of gallons Average production per cow in gallons 1889 1899 1909 1919 1924 1909 1919 1924-a 1924-b 5,210 339 1,097 1,423 1,296 333 332 187 46 156 ' 7,266 490 1,338 1,928 1,682 492 500 474 110 252 7,466 401 1,273 1,980 1,731 518 469 522 174 392 7,805 386 1,248 2,247 1,718 518 459 459 260 510 9,198 403 1,264 2,615 2,275 1,048 490 589 362 622 362 476 490 410 325 286 288 232 339 475 366 449 490 423 312 291 255 208 362 536 411 487 523 474 374 324 291 274 440 572 440 524 541 East North Central 497 West North Central 408 South Atlantic 343 312 West South Central 314 452 608 58 43 91 83 11 54 100 61 142 106 13 69 70 44 123 90 12 60 78 43 122 76 12 55 71 38 128 87 14 66 445 439 463 526 522 487 433 429 414 506 550 480 450 447 438 568 614 562 473 492 477 613 618 598 New York 664 64 369 773 78 487 783 81 412 756 70 422 742 76 446 519 522 441 502 532 464 529 617 500 550 651 511 Ohio 327 201 367 225 304 426 263 457 310 472 362 217 396 353 667 396 239 370 383 858 426 271 435 424 1,059 400 342 377 460 453 419 354 354 461 467 442 405 419 500 530 457 412 461 515 556 183 487 194 27 60 145 202 304 536 258 49 99 190 245 409 490 221 101 117 198 218 476 361 229 139 124 168 221 664 516 274 199 173 198 252 377 348 258 388 317 323 296 354 315 272 309 272 294 309 429 394 334 393 325 320 337 472 429 339 446 383 Nebraska 349 363 11 47 5 78 59 55 24 53 5 13 64 75 105 84 90 44 82 10 11 60 5 104 76 97 50 100 13 11 59 0.5 111 74 96 53 102 12 13 74 5 127 77 108 50 99 19 307 358 713 293 316 314 278 247 108 340 353 723 292 347 310 273 247 152 383 408 400 428 826 335 326 350 279 274 254 339 349 364 306 Georgia 298 306 118 108 56 51 159 147 96 97 141 129 98 96 147 130 94 88 166 149 95 90 344 326 250 224 310 290 226 185 357 323 260 212 354 332 293 250 Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 41 TABLE 13— (Continued) (Million gallons, i.e., 000,000 omitted) Milk produced in millions of gallons Average production per cow in gallons 1889 1899 1909 1919 1924 1909 1919 1924-a 1924-b 54 13 1.5 118 110 39 74 251 98 48 134 240 88 33 136 203 99 38 178 275 230 173 253 237 190 154 234 214 260 184 313 275 297 230 337 Texas 323 Montana 6 5 3 20 0.75 0.75 9 2 5 16 15 5 38 3 3 25 4 26 31 10 52 11 11 26 7 51 52 15 79 13 14 29 6 73 79 24 96 19 18 41 11 341 359' 298 357 213 389 347 383 333 414 313 348 257 433 403 448 406 511 374 438 300 505 478 621 436 517 Wyoming 420 421 314 Arizona 553 Utah 493 612 Washington 20 25 111 50 48 154 92 72 229 141 93 276 170 112 340 495 417 491 571 489 536 609 507 580 615 Oregon 542 630 * Averages are not strictly comparable between years — 1909 and 1919 averages are per dairy cow; 1924-a average per cow kept for milk purposes. The Bur. Agr. Econ. estimates of number of milk cows for Jan. 1, 1924 and Jan. 1, 1925 were averaged and used in making estimate used in computation. 1924-b average per cow milked in 1924. Sources of data: 1889, 1899, 1909 milk production. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Milk produced on farms by divisions and states: 1889-1919. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census, Fourteenth Census of the U. S., 5: p. 658. 1922. 1924 data from individual state reports issued by U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census, U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1925. 1909, 1919 average production per cow, U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Milk produced on farms by divisions and states, 1889-1919. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Fourteenth census of the U. S., 5: p. 655. 1922. 1924a-1924&, computations by author based upon returns from U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1925. Although no accurate statistics of butterfat production for the country have been issued, estimates can be made of butterfat pro- duction per cow in California since 1920 (table 11, p. 38). There has been a consistent improvement in the production of the cows of the state. The amount of butter made on the farm for domestic purposes and the milk used on farms is not included in the statistics of butterfat production and this would serve to increase the average amount of fat per cow. The statistics as used are comparable, although the average production per cow might be slightly higher than is shown in table 11. There are several causes contributing to the marked increase in efficiency of California dairy cattle during the 1920-1926 period. During the last quarter of a century there has been a continuous 42 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION flow of the blood of the dairy breeds into this state — a fact which should serve to keep production on the upward trend. Cow-testing associations have been fostered in this state to a marked degree, and in the wake of this movement have come better sires, improved feeding practices, and advanced methods of management. An increase in the production of the dairy cattle now in California is of far more importance than the establishment of new dairies or the addition of cows to present dairies. Attention to matters of improvement will enable the dairyman to meet both outside compe- tition and the competition of other lines of agricultural endeavor. It is not unreasonable to expect an annual average production of 265 pounds of butterfat from the cows of the state. Production also influences the value of dairy cattle. Data on sales of animals by the California Sales and Pedigree Company, of Sacramento, Califor- nia, over a period of two and one-half years, January, 1921-June, 1923, give some indication of the influence of production on the sale value of dairy cattle (table 12, p. 38). These records of production are unfortunately for short periods. In every instance, whether open or bred heifers, young or mature cows are considered, those animals which are tested or have tested dams have sold at higher prices than those without any evidence of production behind them. It should not be unreasonable to expect a considerable part of the needed increase in fat production in the next few years to come from cows of higher production and efficiency. Stress on these points rather than upon numbers merits the support of all those interested in the dairy industry and the state's development. PRODUCTION OF DAIRY PRODUCTS MANUFACTURING AND DISTRIBUTING PLANTS IN THE WESTERN STATES While creameries are generally scattered throughout the eleven western states, this is not so true of other types of dairy plants (fig. 8). California has a large number of plants of almost all descriptions distributed through the dairy districts of the state. Pro- duction is generally more concentrated in California than in the other western states (fig. 9). From one standpoint this is a desirable condition, insuring competition between the various dairy industries for the farmer's raw material. On the other hand, it is likely that too large a number of plants will entail a heavy overhead charge, especially when there are insufficient supplies of raw material. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 43 Between the years 1919-20 and 1926 the number both of creameries and cheese factories in California decreased materially. The decrease in the former is especially noticeable when Los Angeles County is omitted. The tendency for fewer plants is pronounced in almost all sections of the state with the exception of those in the larger cities. LOCATION OF creameries Cheese factories milk condensers butter and cheese factories factories manufacturing condensed or evaporated milk and either butter or cheese FACTORIES MANUFACTURING CONDENSED OR EVAPORATED MILK AND EITHER BUTTER OR CHEESE "ST Each dor represents one factory 2^ Fig. 8. — Much of the dairy farming is done in the vicinity of the manufactur- ing plants. Although cream may be shipped a considerable distance, the milk received by cheese factories and condenseries is generally produced within a few miles of the manufacturing plants. The data for California were compiled from Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agriculture, Special Publication 62: 18-37. 1926. Data for the other ten states are of 1926 and were furnished by the Bureau of Agricultural Econom- ics, Dairy and Poultry Products Division. Figure used by courtesy of Byron Hunter, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Although many of the city plants are operated on a large scale (especially in San Francisco), a considerable number are for the especial purpose of utilizing surplus milk, manufacturing cottage cheese, etc. 44 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION THOUSANDS OF GALLONS ^ 1 ~^ ^^\~-J^ I I Under 500 |||| 2^000 to u,ooo \ A m 500 to 1,000 gggjj 4,000 to 8,000 X^ V/t/A i.ooo to 2,000 m 8,000 and Over Fig. 9. — Milk production in the western states, 1924. The heaviest milk pro- duction in the western section of the United States is in California and Washing- ton. Population makes for a considerable concentration of the dairy industry, especially in California. Figure used by courtesy of U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Data from 1925 farm census. While the manufacture of ice cream in California has increased at a most rapid rate, the number of plants has increased still more rapidly. Consolidations have occurred, but there have been ever increasing numbers of concerns manufacturing only a few gallons of the product during a season. This increase has been general except in San Francisco and the counties of the San Joaquin Valley. The number of market-milk distributors has likewise increased more rapidly than the amount of milk distributed. This expansion has also been general in the state with the exception of San Francisco County. In the latter county there were 120 distributors in 1906 and Bul. 4371 ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 45 in 1927 but 16. 21 The growth in other sections can perhaps be ex- plained by the agricultural surroundings of the cities and towns, as in most sections milk-distributing plants may be established with far more ease than in a city such as San Francisco. BUTTER PRODUCTION United States. — Owing to the large volume of butter manufactured upon farms, statistics on the total butter production of the country have not been entirely satisfactory. Revolutionary changes have taken place in the manufacture of butter. Until 1917 farm-butter production exceeded that of the creamery product. Since 1879 the latter product has made a relatively rapid growth, while the former has been declining, the peak having been reached about 1899. Whether or not butter production over the last several decades has been gaining more or less rapidly than population is a matter of conjecture, as comparisons based upon one year's data are almost certain to be erroneous. The figures obtained by improved technique in collecting data on butter production since 1917 indicate that it has gained more rapidly than population, the larger amounts of butter having found on outlet in increased consumption. Cert x« \^ s-1917 li ">: 'ft \ « \>^ \ *^^ 8 ,192 5" ^ / ^»^^fc« ^ •t** 4. *£r O Uan. rob. Mar. Apr. May *Juna Julu Aug. Sepf: Oct. /Yov. Dec. Fig. 10. — Percentage monthly production of creamery butter, United States, 1917, 1921, 1925 (expressed as percentage of totals of annual production). May, June, July, August, and September are the months of the largest butter produc- tion of the country. The necessity for cold storage is clearly shown above. Data from table 15 (p. 47). 21 Letter from Wm. E. Moore, Milk Dealers' Association of San Francisco, to author. 46 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 14 Butter Production in the United States and in California, 1849-1926 (Thousand pounds— i. e., 000 omitted) United States California Year Creamery 1 Farm 2 Total 3 Creamery 4 Farm 5 Total 6 1849 313,345 459,681 514,083 777,250 1,024,223 1,071,626 994,651 1 3,095 7,970 14,084 26,776 20,853 15,302 14,348 13,394 12,439 11,485 10,530 9,576 8,622 7,668 6,113 5,758 5,375 4,992 4,609 4,226 3,844 3,461 3,078 1859 1869 1879 16,471 181,285 420,127 624,765 793,721 1,205,508 1,491,753 1,621,796* 2,074 272 13,147 37,283 45,989 50,381 54,941 55,543 59,286 67,522 70,030 68,373 60,485 62,449 68,127 72,254 74,010 76,976 78,562 72,226 74,118 16,159 1889 27,048 1899 34,000 52,585 60,337 1909 1910 1911 63,775 1912 67,380 1913 67,028 1914 .. 786,003 69,816 1915 77,098 1916 760,031 759,511 793,285 849,994 863,577 1,055,938 1,153,515 1,252,214 1,356,080 1,361,526 1,345,389 78,652 1917 908,000 710,000 707,666 675,000 650,000 625,000 610,000 600,000 590,000 580,000 1,667,511 1,503,285 1,557,660* 1,538,677 1,704,938 1,778,515 1,862,214 1,956,180 1,951,526 1,925,389 76,041 1918 66,598 1919 68,207 1920 73,502 1921 77,246 1922 78,619 1923.. .. 81,202 1924 82,406 1925 75,687 1926 77,196 * Total amount of butter includes 17,955,316 pounds manufactured in establishments engaged pri- marily in manufacture of products other than butter, cheese, or condensed milk in 1919; 2,381,212 pounds in 1909. Sources of data: Col. 1, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919, U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Fourteenth census of the U. S., 5: 661-662. 1922; 1914, 1916, 1917-1926, fur- nished to author by U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Col. 2, 1849, 1859, 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919, U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Fourteenth census of the U. S., 5: 661-662. 1922; 1917-1926, furnished to author by U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ.; 1926, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. The Agricultural Situation, 2: p. 15. 1927. (1926 figures subject to revision). Col. 3, sum of cols. 1 and 2. Col. 4, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Fourteenth census of the U. S., 5: 661-662. 1922; 1910-1925, Frey, J. J., Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 62: p. 12. 1926; 1926, Frey, J. J., Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71: p. 18. 1927. Col. 5, 1849, 1859, 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Fourteenth census of the U. S., 5: p. 662. 1922; 1924, U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Bur. Census. United States census of agriculture, 1925, California, p. 7. 1920, 1910-1918, 1920-1923, 1925-1926, estimated by author. Col. 6, sum of cols. 4 and 5. Bul.437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 47 Seasonal Production in the United States. — As is evident from table 15 the seasonal variation in the production of creamery butter has been changing during the past nine or ten years (fig. 10), hence a single number representing the index for seasonal variation during a given month would not be accurate. With the exception of the month of May, there has been a distinct trend toward an equal pro- duction (8.33 per cent) for each month of the year during the period 1917-1926. This tendency has undoubtedly had the effect of lessening the proportion of butter placed in cold storage in the country as a whole. The months of November, December, January, and February are still considerably below normal in production, while May, June, July, and August are above the normal. TABLE 15 Monthly Production of Creamery Butter Expressed as Percentages of Total Annual Production, United States, 1917-1926 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1917 5.8 5.6 6.2 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.4 5.9 6.5 6.2 y 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.41 6.9 7.1 7.1 6.8 7.7 7.1 7.2 7.9 7.0 7.8 7.5 8.0 7.8 7.9 8.3 9.9 10.8 12.2 10.1 11.3 11.5 10.7 10.3 10.7 10.7 13.0 13.2 14.0 13.3 12.4 13.0 12.6 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.8 10.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 11.6 11.0 11.1 10.7 9.9 10.5 10.6 9.9 9.7 10.2 10.0 9.2 10.1 9.1 8.1 8.9 8.5 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.4 8.1 6.9 7.5 8.0 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.1 5.6 5.8 5.3 6.2 6.6 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.3 6.2 6.3 5.7 5.5 6.1 6.8 6.1 6.2 5.1 6.7 6.3 100.0 1918 100.0 1919 100.0 1920 100.0 1921 100.0 1922 100.0 1923 100.0 1924 100.0 1925 100.0 1926 100.0 Sources of data: Computations by author based upon the monthly production of creamery butter. Monthly production of creamery butter, 1917-1924. U. S. Dept. Agr., Creamery butter production, United States, 1917-1924. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1924: p. 881. 1925. 1925-1926, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. 1925-1926. Areas of Production in the United States. — Approximately 80 per cent of the creamery butter is produced in the east and west north central states (fig. 11). During the eight years 1918-1925 actual de- creases in creamery-butter production have come about in the middle and north Atlantic states, while increases have been especially notable in certain of the middle-western, southern, and western states. Undoubtedly a considerable part of the increase in the middle-western and southern states has been accompanied by a decrease in the output of farm butter, so that the actual increase of butter production has not been as great as it might appear. 48 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION There is apparently a tendency for production to center in the now leading butter-production states of the middle west, namely, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Ohio, although the last- named state has shown little or no increase during the five years 1921-1925. The greatest relative increase in butter production (1917-1925) has been in the western states other than California. 22 In the latter state market milk and cream production have tended to displace butter production- in relative importance, a tendency which is in evidence in the more populous areas of the north Atlantic states. California. — In California there has been a greater competition between crops. In analyzing the reasons for the failure of a larger relative growth in butter production not only has the greater com- petition between crops been left out of account but in addition butter may be a product of least disadvantage elsewhere. The principle of 22 Straight lines of trend fitted to yearly production data of creamery butter for the United States and the western states during the period 1918-1926 give the following equations and the percentages of increase during the nine years. All equations center at July 1, 1922. Equation Increase United States y= 1,131,101,700+86,614,100 x 88.3 per cent Western States (excluding California) y = 87,490,200+ 7,789,167 x 110.6 per cent Western States (including California) y = 156,627,200+ 9,885,350 x 67.5 per cent California y= 69,137,000+ 2,096,200 i 27.6 per cent Arizona y= 1,161,700+ 36,570 x 28.8 percent Colorado y= 16,031,000+ 883,317 i 56.5 per cent Idaho* Montana y= 9,372,000+ 1,504,150 x 358.6 per cent Nevada y= 2,255,100+ 126,030 x 40.3 percent New Mexico* Oregon y= 17,754,400+ 1,346,960 i 87.1 percent Utah y= 5,935,900+ 653,750 z 157.5 per cent Washington y= 24,077,300+ 1,436,400 x 62.7 per cent Wyoming y= 1,567,100+ 155,600 i 131.8 per cent , * The increases in both Idaho and New Mexico have been such that suitable curves cannot be drawn. In 1918 the amount of creamery butter manufactured in Idaho was 4,330,000 pounds, while in 1926 the total was 18,456,000 pounds or an increase of 326.2 per cent. New Mexico manufactured 10,000 pounds in 1918 and 455,000 pounds in 1926. Since considerable quantities of butter are produced on farms in the United States and in the western states outside of California, an attempt has been made to indicate the total increase in butter production of the United States and its sections. This has been accomplished by adding to the computed production of creamery butter (above equations) for 1918 and 1926 the estimated production of farm butter for the same years. These latter estimates are based on farm butter production in the various states in 1919 and 1924. These figures show more accu- rately the relative increases than the figures on creamery butter. The increases on this basis are: United States 38. 8 per cent Western States (excluding California) 66.0 per cent Western States (including California 46. 6 per cent California 20.5 percent Arizona 35.6 percent Colorado 33.8 per cent Idaho (comparison of actual data 1918 and 1926) 140.5 per cent Montana 118.4 percent Nevada 31.2 per cent New Mexico (comparison of actual data 1918 and 1926) 69.9 per cent Oregon 62.2 percent Utah 85.4 percent Washington 43.9 percent Wyoming 84.4 percent Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 49 comparative advantage is stated by Black as follows: ''Each area tends to produce those products for which its ratio of advantage is greatest as compared with other areas, or its ratio of disadvantage is least, up to the point where the land may be needed by some product less advantaged in the area in order to meet the demand for them at such prices as will come to prevail under such circumstances." 23 The failure of California to increase butter production more rapidly has been the subject of considerable discussion within the state. Whether the production of butter does increase will depend on more factors than the one usually mentioned — distance from markets. Such factors as competing crops, both in this state and adjacent states, will have to be taken into account, together with those of land values, crop yields, wages, etc. It is not possible to stop at state lines in the discussion of this problem. Thousand Per pounds cent Minnesota 199,960 /6 2 Wisconsin 144.268 II. 7 I ova. 140688 11.4 Ohio 80.122 6. 5 Nebraska 76.713 6.2 California 73.714 60 ffichiyon 64237 52 Illinois 52514 4.3 Indiana 51.243 4.2 Missouri 50,712 4.1 Hon sos 42,898 3.5 Washinjton25.'d27 2.1 5oJ?otota 24.263 2.0 fojokota 24244 2.0 Sets York 22320 1.8 0ther5tattsf62.002 13.1 Fig. 11. — Eelative importance of the chief states producing creamery butter for the period 1921-1925. California ranked sixth among the states in creamery- butter production, considering the average of the years 1921-1925. If farm butter production data were available other states would be listed in advance of California. Data computed by author on the basis of the following: 1921-1924, U. S. Dept. Agr., Division of Dairy and Poultry Products. Creamery butter pro- duction in factories in the United States. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1925: p. 1084. 1926. 1925 data furnished to author by Bur. Agr. Econ. 23 Black, J. D. Production economics, xvi + 975 pp., 79 figs. Henry Holt and Co., New York. 1926. 50 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION If the population of California continues to increase it is highly probable that the trend in figure 12 will continue and that the state will be dependent more in the future than at present for its supply of dairy products from points outside the state boundaries. It might be well to consider the eleven western states as an entity in the matter of the semi-perishable dairy products. of Rounds' /OO 90 eo ro eo so Creamery -Buffer Producfion - Unifad Sfa-fes Farm Buffer Praduaft'an - United Sfafes Creamery —Buff er Praduafi'on - Co/ifbrni'a S^^S I9Z?. J9Z3 I9Z4- /9Z5 I9Z6 Fig. 12. — Production of creamery butter in the United States and California, 1922-1927, and farm butter in the United States, 1925-1927. This graph shows an upward trend in the monthly production of creamery butter from 1922 to 1927 and considerable difference between the highest monthly production during the flush season and the lowest monthly production during the slack season. While monthly data for farm butter are available for a short time only, indications are that there is a greater relative fluctuation between the high and low months. Production of creamery butter in California has not shown a definite trend during the period depicted. Production is far more uniform in California and the peaks and troughs are from two to three months in advance of those in the country as a whole. Sources of data: 1. Creamery-butter and farm production for the United States from U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. 2. Creamery-butter production for California, 1922-1925, computed by author from records in the Bureau of Dairy Control, California State Dept. Agr., and 1926 data furnished author by Dr. J. J. Frey, Chief of the Bur. of Dairy Control, California State Dept. Agr., Sacramento, Calif. A rapid change from the production of farm to creamery butter occurred in California, the maximum of the former having been produced about 1889. Since then farm-butter production has been BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 51 declining rapidly, and was exceeded in amount by creamery butter during the first part of the decade 1900-1910. At present the amount produced is small. Seasonal Variation in California. — The dairy statistics of the Bureau of Dairy Control, California State Department of Agricul- ture, have been utilized in obtaining the seasonal production of butter within the state. Although the period on which calculations are based is rather limited, the results appear worthy of presentation, since there is little disagreement between the five years studied and, in addition, the figures obtained agree substantially with the monthly record of production obtained during 1921 by the United States Department of Agriculture. With 100 as the average monthly butter production, the actual indices of seasonal variation for butter pro- duction in the state are as follows: January 91.5 July 105.9 February 89.2 August 95.1 March 115.4 September 83.0 April 130.0 October 85.3 May 123.9 November 82.6 June 112.1 December 86.0 A comparison of production in the United States and California indicates that there is less variation in the latter than in the former. Another characteristic of California production is its earliness, which is strikingly brought out in the months of March and April. In a number of years in the past this heavy production in the state has caused prices to sag, and at times it has been found profitable to ship butter out of the state during the early spring. The higher winter production within the state is noticeable. California does occupy a favorable position in the seasonal production of butter. Areas of Production in California. — The San Joaquin Valley and the coast counties north of San Francisco Bay are the two main butter-producing areas of the state. On account of changes in the methods of obtaining statistics comparable data are available only since July, 1919. No pronounced trend is evident in either section. During this same period there has been a tendency to manufacture less butter in San Francisco ; this has brought about a decrease in the production of the south coast counties and a resultant increase in the Sacramento Valley and mountain areas. The southern California section has not shown a definite trend, the increase of butter manu- factured in Los Angeles preventing an actual decrease (table 101, p. 185). 52 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION CHEESE PRODUCTION United States. — The transition from the production of farm cheese to that of factory cheese occurred about the time of the Civil War, and today the production of the former product is almost negligible. Although the trend of production has been upward since 1909, it gives evidence of considerable fluctuation, especially if it is compared with that of butter production. Since 1916 production has more than kept pace with population. An outlet has been found in increased per-capita consumption, which since 1920 has necessitated increasing imports (table 85, p. 153). Data for 1926 indicate a considerable decrease in production compared with 1925 ; the first six months of 1927 give evidence of a still further decrease when compared with the similar periods for 1925 and 1926. Approximately 80 per cent of the cheese made is of the American type, although since 1923 there has been an extremely large increase in the production of cottage, pot, and baker's cheese. TABLE 16 Production of Farm and Factory Cheese in the United States (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Year Factory cheese Farm cheese Total cheese 1849 105,536 103,664 53,492 27,272 18,727 16,372 105,536 1859 103,664 1869 109,435 215,885 238,035 282,634 317,145 311,176 377,513 314,717 372,540 352,622 379,320 362,431 355,838 369,980 394,697 413,940 443,514 427,416 162,927 1879 243,158 1889 256,762 1899 , 299,007 1904 1909 9,406 320,582 1914 . 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 6,000 5,000 4,250 4,000 4,000 361,838 1922 374,980 1923 398,947 1924 417,940 1925 447,514 1926 Sources of data: 1849-1925, furnished to author through courtesy of T. E. Pirtle, Bur. Agr. Econ., Washington, D. C. 1926, furnished to author by U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. BUL. 437J ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 53 wm Two states, Wisconsin and New York, have produced between 83.2 and 85.1 per cent of all the cheese manufactured in the United States during the eight years 1918-1925. The former state during the same period produced between 66.0 and 72.2 per cent of the total, increas- ing at the expense of New York. The remaining production is scattered. With the exception of California, in which a relative and actual decrease has taken place, the western states have made the greatest increases in the country. 24 These increases have been noteworthy in Washington, Idaho, and Colorado, while Oregon, with its large actual production, has experienced a slower relative growth. Oregon is now (1924-1925) the third largest state in cheese production. Seasonal Variation. — During the six months beginning May first, between 70 and 80 per cent of the American cheese has been made in the years 1917-1924. During these eight years there has been a pronounced tendency for a more even production throughout the year. Swiss-cheese production gives evidence of a greater seasonal variation than that of American cheese, almost 90 per cent being manufactured in the six months beginning May first. California. — Production statistics of the United States Department of Agriculture and the Bureau of Dairy Control of the California State Department of Agriculture are not in agreement. Because of the system of collecting complete statistics of the latter agency, and to the checks upon such information, it is probable that its data are the more accurate. Both sets of data indicate a downward trend in cheese production in this state during the ten years 1917-1926. The 24 The production of cheese on the farm is negligible. Straight line trends have been fitted to the production statistics for the years 1918-1926. The equations are given below together with the computed increase or decrease over the period. Attention has already been called to certain discrepancies existing between data of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics and the Bureau of Dairy Control of the California State Department of Agriculture. In order that the data may be comparable statistics of the former bureau have been used in making calculations. All equations have their origin at July 1, 1922. Equation United States 2/=391,555,560+9,276,300 x 20.9 per cent increase Western State (exclusive of California) y = 21,671,780+2,254,300 x 142. 6 per cent increase California y= 5,984,560— 716,670 x 64 . 8 per cent decrease Colorado y = 954,110+ 153,380 i 274.6 per cent increase Oregon 2/= 9,048,000+ 411,250 i 44.4 per cent increase Washington y= 2,422,440+ 337,300 x 251.4 per cent increase Curves do not fit data of the remaining western states. The following increase or decrease is between the actual reported production in 1926 and 1918. Arizona 29. 9 per cent increase Idaho 284.8 percent increase Montana 212. 1 per cent increase Nevada Data lacking. New Mexico Data lacking. Utah 59.9 per cent increase Wyoming 87. 1 per cent increase 54 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION production of various types of cheese manufactured in California has fluctuated considerably. The general trend of Cheddar, California, Jack, and Swiss-cheese production has been downward. Since 1922- 1923 there has been a noticeable tendency for an increase in the production of soft cheese. While every area of the state has given evidence of a tendency to decrease the production of cheese, the coast sections both north and south of San Francisco Bay lead the state in production; Stanislaus, however, is the leading cheese county. Not only on account of climatic conditions, but also on account of the greater seasonal variation in milk production and transportation, the manufacture of cheese adapts itself to coast regions. These same conditions may in the future lead to a larger production in the mountainous regions in the northern and eastern sections of the state. Production in the southern section of the state is somewhat erratic, owing to the great variations in the production of both Los Angeles and Imperial counties. Cottage-cheese production has shown a marked upward trend since 1922-1923 as the following production data show : 1919-1920 1,280,093 pounds 1920-1921 1,968,445 1921-1922 2,665,420 1922-1923 1,512,006 1923-1924 3,625,058 1925 10,051,863 1926 11,073,076 This increase has been the result of new and better methods of manufacture and distribution. PEODUCTION OF CONDENSED AND EVAPOEATED MILK The concentrated milk process, invented just before the Civil War, has been responsible for one of the most rapidly growing of the major dairy industries. The European War and the relief work abroad immediately following greatly stimulated production, the peak being reached in 1919. Production decreased from 1919 until 1922. Owing to the recovery of the industry abroad, the stimulation of the industry at home, and the resultant low wholesale prices in this country, pro- duction has been stationary during the four years 1923-1926. During the latter year demand went ahead of production with a resultant depletion of stocks on hand. The first eight months of 1927 gave evidence of a greatly increased production over 1926, accompanied by an increase in the trade output. Stocks were again built up. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 55 Over 80 per cent in 1925 (83.8 per cent) of the production is centered in the states of Wisconsin, New York, Michigan, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and Washington. Certain pronounced shifts have been going on between these states. Since 1914 California has been increasing production more rapidly than any of the dom- inant producing states, although the largest aggregate increase has been in Wisconsin, where over 30 per cent of the product is now manufactured. Relative decreases have occurred in both Illinois and Washington. Production in California has shown a distinct upward trend (table 17). An increase in the export trade has come about from California ports. On the production side this state offers marked advantages in most sections, because a more constant supply of milk can be obtained, and in addition production is somewhat concentrated. TABLE 17 Production of Condensed and Evaporated Milk in the United States and California, 1899, 1904, 1909, 1914, 1916-1926 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Year United States California 1899 1904 186,922 308,485 494,797 873,410 997,835 1,353,606 1,674,898 2,030,958 1,578,015 1,464,163 1,431,349 1,774,881 1,700,548 1,757,858 1,733,504 4,314 1909 16,983 1914 1916 18,610 1917 1918 1919 46,600 1920 84,926 1921 67,195 1922 98,050 1923 114,651 1924 120,311 1925 138,991 1926 150,063 Sources of data: United States, 1899, 1904, 1909, 1914, California, 1899, 1909, 1914, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Butter, cheese, and condensed milk. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. of Census, Census of manufactures, 1914, 2: 353-354. 1919. United States, 1914-1924, U. S. Dept. Agr. Production of condensed and evapo- rated milk. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1925: p. 1076. 1926. United States, 1925-1926, information to author from Bur. Agr. Econ. Califor- nia, 1916, State Dairy Bureau, Beport of State Dairy Bur., Eleventh Biennial Report, 1915-1916: p. 43. 1916. (Year ending September 30.) California, 1920-1924, years ending June 30; 3925-1926, calendar years — Frey, J. J. Statis- tical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr. Special Pub. 71: p. 18. 1927. Note. — Data for 1919, 1921, and 1923 reported by the Dept. Commerce for the United States are 2,150,182,000, 1,758,451,000, and 1,821,143,315 pounds respec- tivelv. See table 18. 56 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 18 Changes in Production of Condensed and Evaporated Milk, 1904, 1909, 1914, 1919, 1921, 1925 (Million pounds— i.e., 000,000 omitted) State 1904 Total Per cent 1909 Total Per cent 1914 Total Per cent 1919 Total Per cent 1921 Total Per cent 1925 Total Per cent Wisconsin New York Michigan California Pennsylvania ... Ohio Illinois Washington All other states Total of U. S.... 12 102 3.7 33.2 9.0 2.5 6.6 .6 30.3 4.5 9.6 100 31 121 32 38 115 54 79 495 6.2 24.4 6.5 * 5.3 7.6 23.1 10.8 16.1 100.0 150 132 77 70 51 167 85 143 873 17.1 15.1 8.0 5.8 19.2 9.8 16.4 100.0 513 480 182 47t 185 119 178 165 281 2,150 23.9 22.3 8.4 2.2 8.6 5 5 8.3 7.7 13.1 100.0 519 255 156 111 122 112 271 1,758 533 261 147 147 114 101 281 1,758 30.3 14.8 8.4 8.3 6 5 5.8 5.0 4.9 16.0 100.0 * California included in all other states. t Exclusive of condensed milk. Sources of data: 1904, 1909, 1914, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Butter, cheese and condensed milk. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census, Census of manufactures, 1914, 2: 353-354. 1919. 1919, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Manufactures of Butter, cheese, and condensed milk, U. -S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census, Thirteenth Census of the United States, 10: p. 34. 1923. 1921, U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Census. Butter, cheese, and condensed milk manufactured, Census of Manufactures, 1923: 10-11. 1925. 1925, data furnished author by U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Thousands Go//ons Z8OOO0- 240000 ZOO OOO /d 0) C CD p cd CD c+ CD P P P d CD ►d arq p p - a -> •d o p M CO Hs CC - 3 c oo o 5 p o ►d d p c+ S p* cd CD CO 3 5 O P pj o CD T3 o <^ P p+ o e+ P Pj 3 n P OTQ o & CD 0) ^ c+- ►d o CD O *>. «-J Pj 3 P co'd n CD ►d CD c H *"* p P O Mj w O CD 3 CO BE CD ^ 3 d 3 O O CD P P r+ h-i CD w c 3 05 CD P CC 4 P -i B9 e+ CD ►i CD P- h3 to = CD p |_i ! ! EJ' CO 5T 3 1 — 1 > " -: f- 1 °S U P co CO Ci CD |>0 H >d p. Ci o CD P p " S -r H <"i P d 9 p R CD CD CO CD — CS P t- CD >d CO ►d rs CD - CD O CD - __ >B '""' 3 5 in co[: P 2 to 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 or 2* ^^^^^™ ' o- m z • ? c 3 a to O m m to m ■^^■i O O z ~o tJP< O 2 c CO £° ~2 r ^ z O o 0) O m O m > 68 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION A careful perusal of table 25 might lead one to believe that a long- time trend of butter consumption would fail to show a pronounced upward tendency, in view of the high apparent per-capita con- sumption in 1889, 1899, and 1909. The same might be said of the consumption of cheese. Although milk consumption has increased during the years since 1917, no exact data exists with reference to years previous to the war. Most of the increase has undoubtedly been in urban areas, as the records of receipts at certain cities show. There can be but little doubt of the continuous upward trend in concentrated-milk and ice-cream consumption. There is no ground, however, for believing that this upward trend will continue. Habits of diet have changed rapidly and some of the changes may have an effect on the consumption of certain dairy products. Bread con- sumption is decreasing and butter is a complementary product. Cheese consumption during the past nine years has increased more rapidly than that of any of the other dairy products. This may perhaps offset the decreasing consumption of meat. TABLE 25 Annual Per-Capita Consumption of Dairy Products in the United States, 1849-1926 Year Milk Butter Cheese Condensed and evaporated milk Ice cream 1849 gallons 42.4 43.0 43.0 43 49.0 50.0 53.0 54.75 54.75 55 3 pounds 13.9 15 1 13.7 15 8 19.5 19.9 18 17.0 15 4 14 6 14.0 14.8 14.7 16.1 16.5 17 17.38 17.39 17.82 pounds 4 3.2 3.3 2.1 2.9 3.7 3.85* 4.60* 3.04 2.89 3.00 3.50 3 50 3 50 3.70 3.90 4 20 4 26 4 36 pounds gallo7is 1859 1869 . 1879 1889 1899 1909 1.04f 1914 1.68 1916 2.08 1917 10.49 12.50 12.30 10.17 11.40 12.69 13.25 14.00 14.87 14.32 2 07 1918 2.14 1919 2.49 1920 2.46 1921 2.28 1922 2.43 1923 2.68 1924 2.50 1925 2.80 1926 2.77 * Including cottage cheese, not included for other years, t For the year 1910. Source of data: Furnished to author by U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 69 The per-capita consumption of milk and cream increased rapidly from 1920 to 1923, but the increase has been slight since the latter date. The daily consumption of milk and cream per capita increased from 1.200 pints in 1925 to 1.212 pints in 1926, or 1 per cent. The estimated yearly per-capita consumption for 1926 was 55.3 gallons per person as compared with 54.75 gallons per person in 1925. The estimated daily per-capita consumption of milk and cream on farms and in rural communities was estimated at 1.47 pints in 1926, which is the same figure for farm consumption as has prevailed for the past four years. An estimate of 0.967 pints of milk and cream con- sumed per capita daily in cities in 1926, is based upon reports received by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics from 373 cities which had a population of approximately 39,000,000. The consumption in cities for different sections of the country for 1925 and 1926 is shown in table 26. TABLE 26 Daily Per-Capita Consumption of Milk and Cream in Cities in Various Sections of the United States, 1925, 1926 1925 1926 pints 1.0504 0.9388 0.6184 1.0114 pints 0.9889 1 . 0389 0.6113 0.9767 0.9510 0.9670 Source of data: Information from Bur. Agr. Econ., Div. of Dairy and Poultry Products, to author. TABLE 27 Estimates of Family Consumption of Dairy Products and Oleomargarine, United States, 1918 Article and unit United North South North South States Atlantic Atlantic Central Central 337 412 155 364 177 77 95 73 48 85 66 75 56 53 60 12 12 13 12 11 16 8 9 30 16 6 4 5 11 3 Western Milk, fresh quart Milk, evaporated pound.. Butter, pound Cheese, pound Oleomargarine, pound Nut margarine, pound... 377 92 Source of data: U. S. Dept. Labor. Betail prices, 1890 to 1925. U. S. Bur. Labor Statistics, Bul. 418: p. 4. 1926. 70 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION The improvement in the quality of milk, butter, and cheese has been a factor in increasing the consumption of these products. Education in the use of milk has played a considerable part. Indi- cations point to the influence of prosperity on the consumption of dairy products. The passage of the Eighteenth Amendment has perhaps caused an additional supply to be consumed. If dairy products continue on their present high level of consumption or raise this level, it will be because of high quality and comparatively moderate price. In view of the present keen competition between foods it may be difficult for dairy products to hold the present level without extensive propaganda. Apparent Consumption of Dairy Products, California. — Although production statistics for California's dairy products are relatively complete, interstate shipments interfere with the possibility of obtain- ing reliable figures of consumption except for 1925 and 1926. Approximately 100,026,686 pounds of butter were consumed in Cali- fornia during 1926 (22.34 pounds per capita), 30 or six pounds more than that of the United States as a whole. Of this, 74.1 per cent was manufactured within California. Statistics for 1925 indicate that butter consumption in that year was 22.61 pounds per capita — con- siderably greater than in 1926. 31 The per-capita consumption of cheese is high compared with that for the nation (see table 25). According to estimates of the Cali- fornia State Department of Agriculture for 1926, it was 6.45 pounds, and for 1925, 6.73 pounds. Over 71 per cent of the cheese consumed in the state in 1926 was manufactured in other states and in foreign countries. An almost phenomenal increase in the production and the con- sumption of cottage cheese has taken place. Conservative estimates indicate an apparent per-capita consumption of 2.46 pounds in 1926, a gain of approximately two pounds in the seven years 1920-1926, although consumption in 1926 was approximately the same as that during 1925. The consumption of ice cream has increased rapidly, although it appears to be slightly less than that for the nation. The apparent per-capita consumption in 1926 was 2.69 gallons, a rise of almost 33 per cent in the five years 1920-1925. Consumption of ice cream 30 Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California Dept. Agr., Special Publication 71: p. 14. 1927. 3i These results are slightly different from those published by the California State Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Dairy Control, as different estimates of population have been used in making computations. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 71 in California has been as follows: 1919-1920, 1.89 gallons; 1920-1921, 2.11 gallons; 1921-1922, 1.90 gallons; 1922-1923, 2.09 gallons; 1923- 1924, 2.22 gallons; ]925, 2.05 gallons. The market milk produced per capita has increased from 17.46 gallons (150 pounds) in 1919-1920 to 23.56 gallons (200 pounds) in 1925 — an increase of 33% per cent. Data for 1926 indicate a further addition to 24.1 gallons. Market milk in this instance does not include milk consumed by farm families nor is account taken of cream production. It should not be inferred that this is the amount of milk consumed per capita; this is no doubt far greater than the amount of market milk produced per capita. A comparison between California and the country as a whole cannot be made. In addition to the production of market milk, an added amount of market cream has been made available within the state. The apparent consumption per capita in 1926 was 1.32 gallons. The trend of market-cream consumption has been upward. Statistics of the consumption of condensed and evaporated milk and other dairy products are not available, although indications point to a high per-capita consumption (table 27, p. 69). That the per-capita consumption of certain dairy products is high in the western states compared with other sections of the country is borne out by the studies of the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor (table 27, p. 69). Consumption of Dairy Products in Various Countries. — While but little information exists on the per-capita consumption of milk in various countries, there are evidently considerable differences. Sweden and Denmark are reported to have a consumption of 1^2 pints a day, 3 ' 2 while that of the United States is approximately 1 pint. In 1923 the per-capita consumption of milk in England and Wales was approximately 19 gallons annually, or less than 0.5 pints daily. In 1926, Germany consumed between 24 and 25 gallons per capita yearly or over 0.6 pints daily. 33 Data for butter consumption are available for a few countries and those show rather wide variations (table 28), which occur on account of the relative price of the product, dietary habits of the people, prosperity, etc. The per-capita consumption of cheese for the countries listed in table 28, evidences even wider varia- tions than that of butter. While food habits are changing rapidly, the factors causing either an increased or a decreased consumption 82 Imperial Economic Committee. Report on marketing and preparing for market of foodstuffs produced within tlie Empire, pp. 1-147, fig. 7. His Majesty's Stationery Office, London. 1926. 33 Estimate by author based upon data in International Institute Agr. Inter- national Crop Report and Agricultural Statistics, 17th year: p. 489. 1926. 72 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION in other countries do not necessarily prevail in the United States. The argument that the people of this country should consume as much cheese per capita as those of Switzerland or an amount of butter equal to that consumed per capita in Canada is not sound unless it is founded on more than mere comparisons of consumption. TABLE 28 Apparent Per-Capita Consumption of Butter and Cheese in Certain Countries Butter Cheese Country Year Apparent per capita consumption Country Year Apparent per capita consumption 1925 1925 1925 1923 1926 1925 1924 1922 1923 1925 pounds 27.0 26.6 21.0 18.6 17.8 16.3 13.2 11.1 10.9 8.4 1923 1923 1923 1925 1924 1926 1924 pounds 23.3 Canada 13.5 13.5 Denmark United Kingdom 9.8 United States 4.9 4.4 3.3 France Sources of data: Butter in Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, and Switzerland and cheese in United Kingdom and Canada: Imperial Economic Com- mittee. Marketing and preparing for market of foodstuffs produced within the Empire. Fourth report — dairy produce. 147 pp., 7 diag. His Majesty's Station- ery Office, London. 1926. Butter, cheese in United States: table 25 (p. 68). Butter in Sweden: information to author from U. S. Dept. Commerce. Bemaining information furnished author by T. R. Pirtle, Assistant Marketing Specialist, Bur. Agr. Econ., U. S. Dept. Agr. PRICES AND PURCHASING POWER OF PRODUCTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY FARM PRICES OF MILK COWS IN THE UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA Reliability of Data. — The value per head of milk cows varies not only with condition, quality, age, size, and weight, but also with actual or estimated production. The farm prices (tables 29 and 30) are more variable than those of beef cattle or veal calves per 100 pounds live weight. 34 Trends in Prices. — Prices in the United States have risen less rapidly since the pre-war period than general wholesale prices, although during 1926 and the first few months of 1927. a decided advance over the previous five years is indicated (fig. 16). Low beef 34 Sarle, Charles F. Reliability and adequacy of farm-price data. U. S. Dept. Agr., Dept. Bui. 1480: 1-65. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 73 and until recently low veal prices undoubtedly have had an influence on prices of milk cows. Higher prices are realized in California and the New England and Middle Atlantic states. These are the result not only of the proportionately large amount of milk used for direct consumption, but also of the higher average production per cow. No pronounced seasonal variation in prices is evident in this state and indications do not point to a direct relationship between the prices of butter and alfalfa hay, or barley (fig. 17). It is highly probable that the price of milk cows is affected by a number of different factors such as prices of feeds, prevalence of disease, prices of dairy products (including butterfat, market milk, etc.), veal, and beef, together with the outlook for the changes in the future. Milk-cow prices are not subject to so great a degree of fluctuations as those for alfalfa hay, as alfalfa and other crops are influenced more by variations in climatic conditions over which man has little control. Comparisons of milk- cow and alfalfa-hay prices may show either a favorable or unfavorable relationship for the purchaser or seller of the former! Oftentimes when hay prices are high the dairyman is a purchaser rather than a seller of hay, but the opposite often holds true. Per Head 110 \ 1 J X r* \ •\ Aj J V-< A r f\ k ft] r* •TO A" fV 4>f J K /*>' \ t fr* ,-J S 1 T~y *"\ji V 50 40 30 20 10 o e \N< Uf Unft ed S t-o+es >v J& • /9IO II /2 13 14 1915 16 17 18 19 /9Z0 Zl ZZ Z3 Z4- I9Z5 Z<5 Z7 Fig. 16. — Farm prices for milk cows in the United States and California, 1910-1927. Prices paid to producers for milk cows have generally been higher in California than in the country as a whole. This situation might be expected on account of the higher production per cow in California. The drop in prices in the state during 1920, 1921, and 1922, was not as pronounced as that in the country as a whole and prices during the six years 1921-1926 have remained on higher levels. The increased production of dairy cattle in the state has undoubt- edly exerted some influence, as has the demand for cows for market-milk purposes. Attention is called to the rapidly rising prices during the 1910-1914 period, which is used for a base in table 31. Undue emphasis should not be placed on purchasing power as used in table 31. Data from table 29 and 38. 74 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 29 Milk Cows: Farm Price per Head on the 15th of the Month in the United States, 1910-1927 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1910 $41.18 $40.35 $41.75 $42.22 $42.38 $43.46 $42.86 $42.77 $42.68 $43.20 $43.34 $43.41 $42.47 1911 44.70 44.48 45.42 44.81 44.54 43.86 42.44 42.26 42.22 42.69 42.70 42.72 43.57 1912 42.89 43.40 44.09 45.14 45.63 45.84 45.41 46.11 46.79 47.30 47.38 48.62 45.72 1913 49.51 51.42 54.02 55.34 54.80 55.20 54.80 54.78 55.78 56.47 57.71 57.19 54.75 1914 57.99 59.09 59.23 59.60 59.85 59.82 59 67 60.72 59.58 59.53 58.77 58.23 59.34 1915 58.47 57.99 58.00 57.78 58.29 58.59 60.31 58.34 58.38 58.76 57.35 56.79 58.25 1916 57.79 57.99 59.51 60.68 60.98 61.63 62.04 61.32 61.41 62.19 62.67 63.18 60.95 1917 63.92 65.93 68.46 72.09 72.78 72.87 72.81 72.53 73.93 75.79 75.00 76.16 71.86 1918 76.54 78.36 80.71 82.45 84.11 84.74 84.97 84.06 85.21 85.41 84.51 85.78 83.07 1919 86.10 86.15 88.15 90.91 93.43 93.84 94.51 94.72 93.42 93.43 93.27 95.54 91.96 1920 94.42 95.27 94.94 95.36 94.56 94.56 91.23 90.50 89.40 85.90 77.56 70.42 89.51 1921 66.82 63.44 65.37 64.35 62.63 59.89 56.55 55.85 54.33 53.39 53.28 53.30 59.10 1922 52.83 53.54 54.87 54.46 54.76 54.87 54.20 52.67 52.79 52.86 51.62 53.21 53.56 1923 54.01 54.15 55.29 56.14 55.91 56.34 56.22 55.45 56.13 55.51 55.39 54.66 55.43 1924 55.57 55.49 55.88 55.92 56.37 56.45 55.46 55.74 55.54 54.30 55.05 54.00 55.48 1925 54.81 54.79 56.19 56.85 57.88 57.79 57.95 58.26 58.68 60.17 60.69 60.38 57 87 1926 62.06 63.41 63.17 65.65 66.63 66.74 66.68 65.37 66 12 $66.26 $67.26 $66.74 $65.51 1927 $66.77 $68.22 $70.18 $71.98 $72.43 $74.19 $74.15 $74.00 $76.00 Sources of data: 1910-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr. Milk cows: Estimated price per head received by producers. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1925: p. 1051. 1926; 1926-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. TABLE 30 Milk Cows: Farm Prices per Head on the 15th of the Month in California, 1910-1927 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1910 $35.10 $37.00 $43.50 $40.00 $44.00 $50.00 $46.00 $44.50 $47.00 $47.00 $56.00 $53.10 $45.27 1911 56.10 55.80 54.30 49.50 53.00 56.90 55.50 54.60 51.00 56.00 54.00 55.20 54.33 1912 52.00 56.00 54.70 57.00 60.00 55.00 59.00 57.00 60.00 58.90 60.00 62.00 57.63 1913 59.00 60.00 62.00 62.70 59.60 59.40 55.90 60.00 64.00 61.40 64.10 66.00 61.18 1914 65.00 66.90 65.00 66.70 70.00 74.70 77.00 70.00 72.50 75.00 73.50 74.20 70.88 1915 76.00 66.20 74.80 73.10 74.00 72.00 67.00 70.50 69.20 69.40 70.00 70.00 70.93 1916 67.50 67.70 70.80 68.00 69.20 67.40 70.00 68.70 66.60 66.80 70.00 66.00 68.21 1917 69.80 69.60 72.90 73.80 75.00 73.10 73.00 70.20 72.40 77.00 78.40 74.60 73.31 1918 76.10 70.30 78.00 76.50 80.00 80.00 77.00 83.00 77.70 80.00 81.00 85.00 78.72 1919 86.00 87.30 92.50 91.70 94.00 98.50 100.00 101.50 98.20 102.30 102.00 114.00 97.33 1920 106 00 107.00 107.00 104.30 107.20 109.30 101.50 101.00 102 00 102.00 102.00 100.00 104.11 1921 97.00 95 00 95.00 95.00 90.00 90.00 87.00 85.00 86.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 89.58 1922 78.00 80.00 85.00 86.00 80.00 80 00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 75.00 80.33 1923 75.00 76.70 80 00 77.00 79.00 78 30 78.60 80.00 79.00 82.50 82.50 83.00 79.30 1924 80.00 82.00 85.00 84.60 84.00 82.00 80.00 76.00 70.00 67 00 72.00 70.00 77.72 1925 72.00 74.00 76.00 81.00 80.70 74.30 78.30 78.00 78.00 85.00 80.00 77.10 77.87 1926 80.40 86.40 84.00 82.00 85.00 90.00 85.00 82.00 80.00 $83.00 $86.00 $87.00 $84.23 1927 $87.00 $85.00 $90.00 $92.00 $89.00 $87.00 $89.00 $87.00 $87.00 Sources of data: 1910-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Prices of farm products received by producers; 4, Mountain and Pacific states. U. S. Dept. Agr., Statistical Bui. 17: p. 144. 1927. 1926, 1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 75 TABLE 31 Relative Prices and Purchasing Power of Milk Cows, United States and California, 19] 0-192(5 All Commodity Index 2 United States California Year 1 Relative price 3 Purchasing power 4 Relative price 5 Purchasing power 6 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 102.7 94.7 100.9 101.8 99.9 102.6 129.0 180.3 197.7 210.1 230.2 149.6 151 5 156.5 152.4 162.0 154.0 86.4 88.6 93.0 111.4 120.7 118.5 124.0 146.1 168.9 187.0 182.0 120.2 108.9 112.7 112.8 117.7 133.2 84.1 93.6 92.2 109.4 120.8 115.5 96.1 81.0 85.4 89.0 79.1 80.3 71.9 72.0 74.0 72.7 86.5 78.3 93.9 99.6 105.7 122.5 122.7 117.9 126.7 136.1 168.2 179.9 154.8 138.9 137.1 134.3 134.6 145.6 76.2 99.1 98.7 103.8 122.6 119.6 91.4 70.3 68.8 1919 80.1 1920 78.2 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 103.5 91.7 87.6 88.1 83.1 94 5 Sources of data : Col. 2, Bur. Labor Statistics, All commodity index 1910-1914 = 100. Col. 3, table 29. 1910-1914 = 100. Col. 4, col. 3 divided by col. 2. Col. 5, table 30. 1910-1914 = 100. Col. 6, col. 5 divided by col. 2. TABLE 32 Amount of Alfalfa Hay Required to Purchase Dairy Cow in California, 1914-1927 (Tons) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1914 10.00 8.81 13.32 10.28 13.28 9.57 11.29 8.81 10.98 8.65 10.71 8.46 9.42 7.00 7.73 6.27 1915 9.27 7.70 8.31 8.70 8.49 1916 6.62 6.37 6.32 6.80 8 44 6.36 6.36 6.02 5.84 6.18 5.83 5.15 6.36 1917 5.37 4.63 4.24 3.65 5.35 5.22 4.68 4.74 4.70 4.64 4 45 3.73 4.62 1918 3.46 2.83 3.36 3.75 4.60 4.65 4.38 4.46 4.00 4 44 4.55 4.88 4.11 1919 1920 5 73 4 14 4 64 3.93 5.31 3 54 6.12 4.01 6.35 5.05 6.39 4.97 6.49 4 34 6.04 4.76 5.28 5.10 5.66 5.10 5.20 5.10 5.53 5.27 5.73 4.61 1921 5.70 7.31 7.31 10 55 10.00 10.00 9.66 9.44 9.55 9.45 8.50 6.74 8.68 1922 6.00 5 71 6 07 5.37 6.66 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.27 6.15 5.33 5.00 6.46 1923 4.93 4.56 5.00 5.13 5.26 5.59 5.95 6.66 5.34 5.89 5.81 5.32 5.45 1924 4.88 4.55 4.72 4.55 4.57 4.55 4.49 4.00 3.89 3.52 3.67 3.76 4.26 1925 3.56 3.59 3.52 4.13 4 21 5.38 5.36 5.91 6.84 6.85 5.71 5.50 5.04 1926 1927 5.66 6.44 5.14 6.20 5.83 6.20 5.94 6.76 7.08 7.41 7.15 7.56 7.39 7.74 7.45 L'6.96 6.61 6.59 6.58 6 37 6.54 6.39 Source of data: Computations by author based upon prices reported for alfalfa hay and dairy cattle in U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets. 76 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION "Ions J3 IZ // /O 9 5 4 3 \=L _ J^AIfah c a [ \i L \i \ ving \A 1 r A - IZ - ho/iTn /'/O Average Ir j i f A / I \ (\ 1 ' A -L A, r i \ Sl\ j r\^ J i\ r\ v r r ^ y 'w > t * v I 1 \ t ' w J *— - f4= /5/4 /5K5 /<& /7 /S /^ /ae£7 ^/ ZZ Z3 Z4 J9Z5 Z6 Z7 Fig. 17. — Price ratio of dairy cows to alfalfa hay in California, 1914-1927. The tons of alfalfa hay required to purchase a milk cow are shown in the above figure. No definite relationship between the two prices apepars to be evident. Data from table 32. TABLE 33 Kelative Farm Prices of Dairy Products and General Farm Products* in the United States, 1910-1927 (On 5-year base, August, 1909-July, 1914 = 100) Relatives Year and month Relatives Year and month Dairy products General farm products Dairy products General farm products 100 97 103 100 100 98 102 125 152 173 188 148 134 103 95 99 100 102 100 117 176 200 209 205 116 124 1923 148 134 137 136 144 143 139 140 136 132 130 129 135 135 1911 1924 134 1912 1925 147 1913 1926 136 1914 1927— January 126 1915 February 127 1916 March 126 1917 April 125 1918 May 126 1919 June 130 1920 July 130 1921 August 132 September 140 * General farm products includes 30 groups of the more important farm products of the United States. Sources of data: 1910-March, 1927. U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Index numbers of farm prices, 63 p. 1927. April-September, 1927, U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 77 PRICES OF DAIRY PRODUCTS United States. — The Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the United States Department of Agriculture has constructed an index of prices for dairy products, made up of prices of milk sold by farmers and of butter which is given a weight to represent butterfat and cream sold by farmers (table 33). Throughout the war period, 1914-1918, and until 1921, the relative prices of dairy products lagged behind general farm and all-commodity prices. Since 1921 the tendency has been for the relative prices of dairy products to remain above those of farm prices, although below the wholesale level of prices. Butter prices appear in a far more favorable light than prices paid to producers for milk in the United States, e.g., in May, 1927, the farm price of butter as a per cent of the pre-war average (August, 1909-July, 1914) was 165, while that of milk was 125. BUTTERFAT PRICES Importance of Butterfat. — From the standpoint of value in exchange, butterfat is the important constituent in milk. As a basis for setting the price of milk products, about 95 per cent is credited to butterfat and 5 per cent to milk solids, not fat. 35 Hitherto the other constituents of milk have not been of particular interest to any but research workers and certain manufacturers of dairy products. Scientific work has brought about the discovery of vitamines and other constituents of milk not previously known. New uses for the constituents of milk other than milk fat have been found and their values in use are reflected in the demand and consequently in the price. For example, Beach and Davis 36 discovered a new use for lactose or milk sugar as a practical specific for coccidiosis in chickens. The general public is becoming aware of the fact that mere fat con- tent or "richness" of milk is only one item to be considered in its purchase. California Prices. — Through the cooperation of creameries in the state it has been possible to construct a series of prices paid to pro- ducers of butterfat for churning purposes (fig. 18). There was a tendency for the prices of wholesale commodities to rise more rapidly s 5 Lecture by C. E. Gray, Golden State Milk Products Company, University Farm, Davis, 1926. 36 Beach, J. R., and D. E. Davis. The influence of feeding lactose or dry skim-milk on artificial infection of chickens with Eimeria avium. Hilgardia, 1: 167-181. 1925. 78 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION than the price of butterfat during the years 1914-1917. Since 1917 the tendency has been for butterfat prices to gain on general whole- sale prices. The comparisons between the relative wholesale prices of one commodity and those of wholesale commodities in general are often termed "purchasing power." The term is somewhat mislead- ing, as the dairyman selling butterfat does not purchase all of the commodities used in making up a series of wholesale-price relatives. TABLE 34 Estimated Prices Eeceived by Producers for Butterfat in the United States on the 15th of the Month, 1924-1927 (Cents per pound) Geographical unit Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1924 North Atlantic states North Central states 44 36.6 43.0 36.6 43.0 37 43.0 41 1 1925 North Atlantic states.. North Central states.. South Atlantic states.. South Central states . Western states California United States 40 47.0 37.9 46.5 41.8 39.7 37.6 41.6 46.0 41.5 45.1 40.3 40.5 37.2 41.5 45.0 40 5 45.0 39.6 40.1 37.0 40.0 45.0 40.3 43.5 40.4 36.9 36.3 41.1 46.0 39.9 45.5 40.2 38.1 36.5 43.9 51.0 40.5 43.8 41.5 39.6 35.9 47.5 53.0 41.3 46.9 42.5 38.1 37.6 49.0 56.0 42.6 51.8 47.6 42.0 40.8 52.3 59.0 47.1 52 48.1 43.4 41.2 55 4 64 47.8 52.9 47.9 42.4 41.8 52.5 59 47.6 1926 North Atlantic states.. North Central states . South Atlantic states. South Central states . Western states California United States 51.9 49.8 48.6 45 4 45.1 43.6 44.7 46.1 45.1 45.9 51.8 44.3 42.8 42.6 40.2 38.5 39.4 38.4 38.0 40.5 43.2 45.5 45 41.9 40.6 40.2 39.4 38.8 36.5 36.9 39.7 39.1 41.2 41.0 38.9 38.8 36.4 35.3 35.2 .34.3 33.8 35.6 37.6 39.1 47.5 44.6 45 4 42 40.4 41.4 40.2 40.8 43.1 44.8 44.6 53.0 48.0 49.0 44 43.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 46.0 45.2 43.1 42.9 40.4 39.1 39.3 38.6 38.6 40 5 42.4 44.8 51.1 49.3 43.3 41.4 45.2 46.0 47.9 1927 North Atlantic states.. North Central states . South Atlantic states. South Central states . Western states California United States 52 1 47.9 42.9 41.2 47.9 51.0 51.7 48.1 43.4 40.8 47 4 50.0 46.8 52.4 49.3 44.2 42.4 48.6 51.0 48.0 50.8 48.6 45 3 42.0 44.7 46.0 47.1 50.6 44.0 41.1 38.6 42.8 46.0 43.6 46.4 41.5 38.2 35.3 41.2 45.0 40.8 46.4 40.7 38.8 35.0 41.0 45.0 40.3 44.4 39.9 37.1 34.3 40.9 45.0 39.4 42.2 40.3 35.8 44.0 48 41.6 Source of data: 1924, 1925, 1926, U. S. Dept. Agr. Monthly Supplements to Crops and Markets. 1927 current data, U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets, published monthly. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 79 Furthermore, dairymen even in the same state may purchase widely different commodities. The farmer purchases many commodities which are not included in the so-called index of wholesale prices. The price of many of these commodities has actually been lowered by mass production. Oftentimes prices averaged during a base period vary greatly. Comparisons between prices of a specific commodity and general wholesale prices should be used only in a general way. To correctly gauge purchasing power, the volume of production should be taken into account. This latter information is not available. Attention is called, however, to the probable greater uniformity in the production of a product such as butterfat than in the production of most agricultural crops. With these and perhaps other limitations it can be said that the unit price of butterfat in the state has been normal during the five years, 1923-1927, considering as normal the wholesale prices of commodities listed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Per- 1 1 1 75 to 60 as 50 «5 AC 35 30 25 SO 15 K> 5 ,Bu f-rerf c a+ Price s /I A \ ( \ / \J\ I tf 1 t kj T iz- A Moni-h f /eraga } lovint 7 w V V V V r V V /a 1915 16 17 18 19 /9ZO Zl ZZ Z3 Z4 I9Z5 Z& Fig. 18. — Prices paid to the producer for butterfat in churning cream in Cali- fornia, 1910-1926. Prices paid f.o.b. dairy plants for butterfat in churning cream did not begin to rise until 1916. Although the rise av;is rapid, it did not equal that of general commodities. The fall in butterfat prices was less pronounced than that of general commodities in 1921. Prices in 1923 and 1925 were prac- tically normal, with 1926 slightly below. The first part of 1927 gives evidence of another normal year. Data from table 35. 80 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 35 BUTTERFAT PRICES FOR CHURNING CREAM, CALIFORNIA, 1910-1927 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. II 8 sir .>^ -So «2 1910... 38.1 36.5 32.3 29.5 30.8 32.2 34.4 36.3 36.5 38.8 39.5 38.3 34.79 104.0 1911... 36.8 34.3 28.3 24.5 25.5 25.2 25.3 28.0 29.5 33.8 35.5 38.0 29.85 89.3 1912... 41.0 39.0 35.0 29.9 29.0 31.8 32.6 36.5 38.7 40.0 40.5 39.5 35.59 106.4 1913... 41.5 41.0 41.0 33.0 31.3 31.9 33.9 36.5 39.5 37.2 37.8 35.7 36.47 109.1 1914... 33.5 30 26.4 26.3 28.0 28.5 28.5 31.3 33.5 34.9 37.5 33.7 30.50 91.2 1915... 31.8 31.3 27.0 26.0 27.1 29.0 30.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 32.0 31.5 29.59 88.5 1916... 32.3 34.5 31.8 30.8 28.9 29.0 29.9 30.9 35.3 38.0 40.0 39.9 32.99 98.6 1917... 42.7 43.0 40.0 42*5 41.3 42.1 45.6 49.8 51.1 53.1 49.8 53.8 45.61 136.4 1918 ... 57.0 55 52.0 43.5 45.0 49.0 56.0 57.3 64.3 69.5 67.1 71.0 55.95 167.3 1919... 65.8 60.0 66.0 62.9 65.8 65.7 64.0 65.0 72.0 74.0 75.1 75.6 67.17 200 8 1920... 73.4 72.9 69.3 65.3 62.0 63.8 69.0 71.0 75.9 67.5 63.5 58.0 67.50 201.8 1921... 50.0 54.0 43.2 39.1 35.9 38.6 45.5 49.3 50.2 53.5 54.0 48.0 45.99 137.5 1922... 42.0 45.0 38.4 36.5 40 43.5 47.0 46.0 54.0 57.2 54.0 56.0 45.65 136.5 1923.... 56.9 53.6 50.0 48.9 50 5 53 50.0 54 56.5 57.0 58.0 57.0 53.35 159.5 1924... 56.8 54.7 52.0 41.7 40.5 44.5 44.2 45.7 44.0 44.8 44.0 48.4 46.63 139.4 1925... 49.5 49.3 49.0 45.8 46.7 51.5 54.4 57.0 59.5 63.5 64.0 56 53.05 158.6 1926. ... 49.0 51.0 47.4 46 3 46.0 46.0 45.7 48.2 49.0 49.8 49.3 51.0 48.00 143.5 1927.... 52.5 52.3 50 47.7 46.5 48.0 48.0 Source of data: Information furnished to author by creameries in various parts of California. Comparisons of Butterfat Prices. — The Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the United States Department of Agriculture, quotes an estimated price received by producers of butterfat. Comparisons made since September, 1924, indicate that prices in California have averaged higher than those of the other western states, while the latter as a group have ranked next to the north Atlantic states. During March, April, and May, the differential is apparently less than during the other months of the year, because of the larger production in the state during these months (see fig. 12, p. 50). This relatively favorable position of California has been brought about by a local market for a large proportion of the dairy products. The increasing proportion of the milk production which is being utilized for high-priced products, together with the facilities for the manufacture of various by-products, have been contributing factors in favor of this differential. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 81 BUTTER PRICES Farm Butter in the United States. — The farm prices received for butter constitute one of the few series of butter prices for the entire country. The quantity of farm butter has been decreasing steadily, as creamery butter has increased, and the quality has materially improved. A much larger proportion of farm butter is sold at the retail price level than was the case ten or fifteen years ago. 36 A comparison with the wholesale commodity index will be of interest although no definite conclusions should be drawn. Except for the three years 1916-1918, butter prices have been steadier than the prices of wholesale commodities. During the four years, 1923-1926, the deviation from 100 per cent in the so-called purchasing power has been slight. Although butter is only one product of the dairy industry, it undoubtedly gives a better picture of general price trends than some of the other dairy products such as market milk, market cream, etc., which are greatly influenced by local conditions. During the war period, 1914-1920, there was a tendency for butter prices to increase more slowly than general farm prices but since 1921 the relative prices for butter have been more favorable. Pre- liminary data for California farm prices are now being assembled. It can be shown fairly accurately that eggs have not kept so close to 100 per cent in purchasing power as butter. 38 Farm Butter in California. — This product is unimportant in Cali- fornia, but since the only price quoted over a long series of years for the entire country is on farm butter, those prices obtainable in this state may be of interest and value. It seems reasonable to expect that the production might follow creamery butter in the state and the weighted average price per year is based upon this stipulation. Dur- ing the period 1910-1926 the actual prices received for farm butter in California have been higher than those obtained in the United States as a whole, although the relatives have not been quite so high. This latter situation has come about on account of the probability that there has been little difference in the method of disposing of farm butter in this state during the past few years. Comparisons between the prices received for farm butter in various sections are of somewhat doubtful value owing to Avide variations in quality. so Sarle, Charles F. Reliability and adequacy of farm-price data. U. S. Dept. Agr., Dept. Bui. 1480: 1-65. 1927. 38 Voorhies, E. C. The California poultry industry: A statistical study. Cali- fornia Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 413: 1-172. 1926. 82 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 36 Prices and Purchasing Power of Butter, Farm Prices, United States, 1910-1926 Year Butter prices (cents per pound) 1 Butter- price relative 1910-14 = 100 2 All- commodity index 1910-14 = 100 3 Purchasing power of butter 4 Weighted average price (cents per pound 5 Butter- price relative based on 5 6 Purchasing power based on 3 and 6 7 1910 25.9 23.3 26.2 27.0 25.5 26.0 28.5 36.3 43.7 50.9 54.6 38.4 35.8 41.0 40.0 41.1 41.6 101.2 91.0 102.3 105.5 99.6 101.6 111 3 141.8 170.7 198.8 213.3 150.0 139.8 160.2 156.3 160 6 162.6 102.8 94.7 100.9 101.8 99.9 102.6 129.1 180.4 197.9 210.2 230.3 148.8 151.5 156.5 152.4 161.6 154 98.4 96.1 101.4 103.6 99.7 99.0 86.2 78.6 86.3 94.6 92.6 100.8 92.3 102.4 102.6 99.4 105.6 25.5 22.9 25.7 26.7 25.1 25.7 28.0 35.9 42.7 50.3 54.3 37.0 35.3 40.4 39.4 40.7 41.1 101.2 90.9 102.0 106.0 99.6 102.0 111.1 142.5 169.5 199.6 215.5 146.8 140.1 160.3 156.4 161.5 163 .2 98 4 1911 96 1912 101 1 1913 104.1 1914 99.7 1915 ....: 99.4 1916 86.0 1917 79.0 1918 85.6 1919 95.0 1920 93.6 1921 98.7 1922 92.5 1923 .. 102.4 1924 102.6 1925 99.9 1926 106.0 Sources of data: Col. 1, average of monthly prices given in U. S. Dept. Agr. Butter: estimated price per pound received by producers, in the United States, 1910-1925. Year- book, 1925: p. 1092. 1926. 1926-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets. Col. 2, computations by author. 'Col. 3, Bureau of Labor Statistics all commodity index. Col. 4, col. 2 divided by col. 3. Col. 5, weighted average prices. Col. 6, butter price relative based upon col. 5. Col. 7, col. 6 divided by col. 3. Weights used in computing average yearly prices of butter for the United States were based upon the production of creamery butter, 1922. These weights are: Jan. 6, Feb. 7, Mar. 7, Apr. 7, May 11, June 13, July 12, Aug. 10, Sept. 8, Oct. 7, Nov. 6, Dec. 6. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 83 TABLE 37 Monthly Pricks Received ky Producers for Butter on the Farm in California, 1910-1927* (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average 1910 34 34 35 34 34 32 32 36 50 60 65 54 46 48 51 49 47 51 32 32 35 35 31 30 32 39 50 56 64 48 43 47 51 46 51 48 31 30 33 34 28 28 30 38 50 55 64 46 41 46 52 46 48 48 29 27 31 32 27 26 28 36 46 55 62 42 38 44 45 49 44 45 28 26 30 30 26 26 28 36 44 56 60 38 38 45 43 46 43 45 28 26 29 29 26 26 28 37 44 57 60 37 40 46 44 47 44 44 28 26 30 30 28 28 28 40 48 57 58 38 42 46 43 52 43 45 30 27 31 31 28 29 28 42 51 56 60 43 42 46 46 53 46 44 32 29 32 34 30 30 30 44 53 58 63 46 44 46 46 55 47 47 34 30 34 35 32 30 32 46 58 62 64 47 48 49 46 58 46 35 32 35 36 34 30 34 47 61 66 64 48 50 52 48 62 48 36 34 35 36 34 32 36 48 62 66 62 50 50 50 50 57 49 31 1911 29 1912 33 1913 33 1914 30 1915 29 1916 31 1917 41 1918 51 1919 59 1920 62 1921 1922 45 44 1923 47 1924 47 1925 52 1926 46 1927 * Prices are for first of month from 1910-1923. Prices are for fifteenth of month from 1924-1926. Sources of data: 1910-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Prices of farm products received by producers in mountain and Pacific states. U. S. Dept. Agr., Statistical Bul. 17 : p. 145. 1927. 1926-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. TABLE 38 Prices and Purchasing Power of Butter on the Farm, California, 1910-1926 Year 1910.. 1911.. 1912.. 1913. 1914. 1915. 1916 11117 1918. [919 1920 1921. 1922 1923 . 1924 1925.. 1926 Butter price (cents per pound) 1 Butter-price relative 1910-14 = 100 = 31 cents 2 All-commodity index 1910-14 = 100 3 Purchasing power of butter 4 31 100.0 102.8 97.3 29 93.6 94.7 98.8 33 106.5 100.9 105.6 33 106 5 101.8 104.6 30 96.8 99.9 96.9 29 93.6 102.6 91.2 31 100.0 129.1 77.5 41 132.3 180.4 73.3 51 164.5 197.9 83.1 59 190 3 210.2 90 5 62 196 8 230.3 96.9 45 145 2 148.8 97 6 44 141 9 151.5 93.7 47 151.6 156 5 96 9 47 151.6 152 4 99.5 52 167.7 161 6 103.8 46 149 4 154 97.0 Sources of data: Col. 1, table 37, p. 129 (unweighted average). Col. 3, Bureau of Labor Statistics, all commodity index, 1910-1914 = 100. Col. 4, col. 2 divided by col. 3. 84 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION /860 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 /900 05 10 15 20 Z5 30 Fig. 19. — Wholesale prices and purchasing power of butter in San Francisco, 1860-1927. Actual wholesale prices of butter at San Francisco give evidence of two long-time swings, 1865-1895 and 1895-1926. Making calculations upon a 1910-1914 base, butter shows a generally favorable purchasing power until 1913. Since 1917 the purchasing power has been rising rapidly. During the entire (ireat War period, prices were out of line with those of general commodities. The base period 1910-1914 occurred during a period of fairly constant prices, 1907-1914. Data from table 41, p. 89. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 85 Wholesale Prices of Butter. — Wholesale butter prices have been quoted in San Francisco since 1860 ; a summary of the average yearly prices is given in table 41 (fig. 19). Price is not the only factor which should be taken into consideration in connection with a product. The purchasing power of butter is perhaps of more general significance to both the producer and consumer than is the mere money price. The wholesale price of butter is of greater significance to the con- sumer and producer than that of most other wholesale commodities, TABLE 39 Net Monthly Wholesale Prices of Butter in San Francisco, 1910-1927 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1910 1911 1912 1913 35.87 32.12 35.00 35.00 33.50 29.87 34.50 34.25 29.40 26.70 31.87 35.50 26.25 21.75 26.62 28.25 29.62 22.75 25.60 27.20 28.20 21.80 27.62 27.75 29.50 23.25 27.62 28.60 32.00 25.70 31.40 32.50 32.20 26.75 33.37 34.87 34.20 30.75 34.10 32.50 35.50 31.37 33.10 33.00 35.30 33.75 34.00 31.10 31.79 27.21 31.23 31.71 1914 29.75 27.00 22.75 23.20 24.00 24.00 24.37 28.00 30.50 30.50 31.50 29.87 27.12 1915 27.75 28.62 24.00 23.00 23.37 24.75 26.50 27.37 27.00 27.00 28.00 27.50 26.24 1916 27.75 31.25 27.70 26.50 24.75 24.90 26.00 27.30 30.62 33.00 34.60 34.50 29.07 1917 35.87 38.00 35.70 37.75 35.60 35.75 38.75 42.40 43.87 45.50 42.60 47.12 39.91 1918 48.50 47.25 44.25 36.50 38.80 42.37 47.00 48.30 53.60 59.25 57.10 60.75 48.64 1919 55.40 50.25 54.80 53.60 56.00 52.50 53.70 53.60 59.60 62.30 63.40 63.60 56.56 1920 61.00 60.80 58.40 55.30 51.70 53.70 56.40 58.30 63.80 56.70 53.60 47.60 56.44 1921 42.20 45.40 37.10 33.70 30.60 33.30 38.20 41.40 43.20 45.90 46.20 40.30 39.79 1922 35.70 40.30 32.80 31.40 33.30 35.80 38.10 38.80 45.20 48.90 44.30 47.40 39.33 1923 47.50 45.20 41.40 40.50 41.90 43.80 41.50 45.10 47.60 47.20 47.40 47.70 44.73 1924 47.50 45.10 44.20 36.40 35.40 37.80 37.30 39.00 37.00 37.10 37.80 41.30 39.66 1925 43.70 42.30 42.50 39.90 39.90 44.00 48.30 50.00 51.70 54.00 54.30 48.70 46.61 1926 1927 43.80 47.20 45.80 47.70 42.40 45.60 40.40 42.00 40.10 41.20 40.50 41.80 41.70 41.60 43.50 44.30 44.30 46.70 44.60 44.50 47.30 43.16 Sources of data: Monthly quotations computed by author on basis of the aver- age (arithmetic mean) of Thursday quotations, for each month. For the years 1918-1925 all quotations were discounted before being averaged. Current quota- tions are published daily by the Bur. Agr. Econ. (p. 178). Prices quoted by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics during a portion of the 1918-1925 period indicate that the exchange quotations were slightly low. The Bureau quotations were: Aver- Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. age 1918 59 58 62 1919 56 49 56 56 56 54 54 55 60 63 64 65 57 1920 62 62 59 56 53 54 57 59 64 58 53 48 57 1921 42 46 38 34 31 34 39 42 44 46 46 41 40 1922 36 40 33 32 35 38 39 39 46 49 45 47 40 1923 48 46 42 41 42 44 42 45 48 47 48 48 45 1924 47 46 44 38 37 40 39 40 39 39 39 43 41 1925 44 42 43 40 40 44 47 49 52 54 54 49 46 86 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION because both the price paid to the producer for butterfat and the price paid by the consumer for butter are closely correlated to the wholesale price of butter. The trend of prices from 1865 to 1895 was downward, yet at the same time the purchasing power was, with the exception of five years, above 100 per cent. At the beginning of the World War butter prices took an upward turn, yet the increase did not keep pace with general commodity prices. Since 1918 whole- sale butter prices i-n San Francisco have continued to show a steady rise when compared with general commodity prices. Los Angeles prices since 1910 show the same general movement as those at San Francisco (fig. 20). 60 40 -Pun -has ng j ?ow& '/- V*^ 'Z't-ict » Pur- chasing Poisor- 130 IZO I/O /OO 90 80 70 /9IO II IZ 13 14 15 16 17 /8 19 ZO Zi ZZ Z3 Z4- Z5 Fig. 20. — Wholesale prices and purchasing power of butter in Los Angeles, 1910-1926. The disparity between the wholesale prices of butter at Los Angeles and general commodity prices in the United States started in 1914. Since 1917 the general trend of the purchasing power has been upward. Data from table 44 (p. 92). Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OP THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 87 TABLE 40 Relative Monthly Wholesale Prices of Butter in San Francisco, 1910-1927 Months 1910-1914 = 100, e.g., January, 1910-1914 = 100, etc. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1910 106.9 105.3 100 5 104.1 115.4 109.0 110 6 107.0 102 1 105 5 107.9 107.6 106.6 1911 95.7 93.9 91.3 86.3 88.1 84.3 87.2 85.9 84.8 94.9 95.4 102.9 91 3 1912 104 3 108.4 109.0 105.6 99.1 106.8 103.6 104 9 107 1 105.2 100.6 103.7 104.8 1913 104 3 107.6 121 4 112.1 105 3 107.3 107.2 108.6 110.6 100.3 100.3 94.8 106 4 1914 88.7 84.9 77.8 92.0 92.9 92 8 91.4 93.6 96.7 94.1 95.8 91.1 91.0 1915 82.7 89.9 82.1 91.2 90.5 95.7 99.4 91.5 85.6 83.3 85.1 83.9 88.0 1916 82.7 98.2 94.7 105.1 95.8 96 3 97.5 91.2 97.1 101.8 105 2 105 2 97.5 1917 106 9 119.4 122 1 149.7 137.8 138.2 145.3 141 7 139.1 140.4 129.5 143.7 133.9 1918 144.6 148.5 151.3 144.8 150.2 163.8 176.2 161.4 169.9 182.8 173.6 185.2 163.2 1919 165.1 157.9 187.4 212.6 216.8 202.9 201.4 179.1 189.0 192.2 192.8 193.9 186.4 1920 181.8 191.1 199.7 219.5 200.2 207.6 211.5 194.9 202.3 174.9 163.0 145 1 189.3 1921 125.8 142.7 127.2 133.7 118.5 128.7 143.2 138.4 137.0 141.6 140.5 122.9 133.5 1922 106.4 126.7 112.2 124.6 128.9 138.4 142.9 129.7 143.3 150.9 134.7 144.5 131.9 1923 141.6 142.0 141.6 160.7 162.2 169.3 155.6 150.7 150.9 145.6 144.1 145.4 150.1 1924 141.6 141.8 151.2 144.4 137.1 146.1 139.9 130.4 117.3 114.5 114.9 125.9 133.0 1925 130.3 132.9 145.4 158.3 154.5 170.1 181.1 167.1 163.9 166.6 165.1 148.5 156.4 1926 130.6 143.9 145.0 160.3 155.2 156.6 156.4 145.4 140.5 137.6 135.3 144.2 144.8 1927 140.7 149.9 156.0 166.6 159.5 161.6 156.0 148.1 148.1 Source of data: Computations by the author based upon table 39. Butter prices for the same grade of product in different sections move with considerable similarity, as for example on the New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco markets (fig. 21). Until quite recently — 1925 — the average yearly wholesale price of butter was lower at San Francisco than at the other cities mentioned. With the increasing demands of the state and a consequent dependence on outside supplies, wholesale prices within the state will be perhaps higher than in sections producing a surplus. With the dairy develop- ment in the other western states there probably will be even more uniformity between California and the Middle West, owing to the ease with which many of the western states can place their products in either California or the middle western states. During the four years, 1923-1926, there have not been any marked differences (except for short inter\ T als) between the wholesale prices at Chicago and San Francisco (or Los Angeles). In California there is a tendency for comparatively lower prices to prevail during the first three or four mouths of the year on account of the earlier season. CENTS PER LB. 50 45 40 35 30 55 50 45 40 35 30 55 50 45 40 35 1921 _ err ^1 \ ^"A -.— ,^*" \\ ^New York ^^^ Son Francisco-"^ ^ jf"" V/ icago T^ ^-5^}— — — — 1922 5c?/7 Franc / /Ven/ Koz-A 1 /jx* . Chicago .^" -*C| , "-i-.. iJs»»s=Cj /y »*" ^ 1 1923 i^ — *^ *"•■«•. |**5 N e» tt/rt .^'\~"^~^. •*"* ^-»^"*^ s+ i So/ Francisc - "• " Chicago 1 1 | | _j 1925 L - .J---i— - V X *N eiv Ko/-/r 3(7/7 rranciSCO ~T^ ^ * »« "*•-•«* — / 1^ * — tws« -— J_ „ L_ , , *■ '""" "" I ■ . 1 1926 ■ <^ n Fran zj'sco-^ --^ <• r** ^^S ^>s- A/ew y&/- <•, >.^ •^i...-- Cht'cc ^° 50 45 40 35 30 55 50 45 40 35 30 JAN. FEB. MAR.. APR,. MAY JUNE JULY AUG 5EPT OCT NOV DEC Fig. 21. — Prices of 92-score butter at New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, 1921-^-1926. During March and April San Francisco prices are usually below those of Chicago and New York. When the flush season of production comes on in the dairy belt, Chicago and New York prices usually drop below the San Fran- cisco price. Data from Yearbooks of the U. S. Dept. Agr. (Coefficient of corre- lation, r= + 0.7158 for correlation between monthly prices, New York and San Francisco, January, 1901-June, 1926. Correlation between Chicago and San Francisco butter prices gave approximately the same results.) Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OP THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 89 TABLE 41 Butter: Actual and Eelative Wholesale Prices, Purchasing Power, San Francisco, 1860-1926 Actual average price (cents per pound) 2 Relative price 3 45.7 153.3 44 2 148.3 49.6 166.4 46.0 154.3 50.1 168.1 62.8 210.7 48.8 163.7 43.3 145.3 46.3 155.3 49.9 167.4 41.8 140.2 38.9 130.5 40.8 136.9 41.8 140.2 38.9 130.5 39.7 133.2 35.8 120.1 38.6 129.5 33.3 111.7 30.3 101.6 28.5 95.6 34.4 115.4 34.7 116.4 31.1 104.3 30.4 102.0 28.1 94.3 25.8 86.6 29.0 97.3 33.9 113.7 24.3 81.5 25.3 84.9 28.9 96.9 26.3 88.2 25.8 86.5 23.5 78.8 19.4 65.1 20.8 69.8 21.4 71.8 23.5 78.8 23.3 78.2 22.8 76.5 21.6 72.5 25.7 86.2 27.6 92.6 23.7 79.5 24.8 83.2 26.1 87.6 30.4 102.0 26.8 89.9 30.7 103.0 All-commodity index 4 Purchasing power 5 90 105 133 170 194 171 154 143 137 127 122 124 123 119 114 106 99 91 172.2 164.8 158.5 116.0 98.9 108.6 95.7 94.4 108.6 122.2 110.4 107.0 110.4 114.0 109.7 116.8 113.3 130.8 122.7 118.1 99.6 122.8 120.0 109.8 114.6 113.6 105.6 117.2 135.4 97.0 102.3 118.2 114.6 109.5 112.6 91.7 102.6 105.6 111.0 101.6 92.2 89.5 100.2 105.2 90.3 94.6 96.3 106.3 97.7 104.0 90 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 41—(Con1initr — '"' r / li Ol - I9Z& \\ \ X / \ — ^— ~ © •? g Sag P — JL Q g. p p « ST <^ ° "2 «> ft P £> ft _ P £ S-m £• tr* pg ft o < ^ p- -< ft r 1 ft y 00 5S 5L ^ t3 3 3 p- •_>• B *■< r-f- (JQ CD , ft CD : p p s- O © 3 | P * ^ B tr cd CD CO B^J g'& el © cd 3. P M- Pj K 3 S3- a"* I U^S P* « «• 2 » s- 2 i s §' ° B I rf P © ^J SO* OB 00 (D . on <1 P <*■ CD B & 2 p, ►— CD ^ 00 ^ P CO oo P OT3 oo O 2 B 3 8 p O c+ CD 2- c+ B P O CD oo 3 <73 Pi S H . 3. - d p Ssr "T3 CD . w /- (0 Co 1 fcS t* ?L 4? if sT M. ? ■*— 1 'X ■u^^, j 3 ft > k 8' 0) 4»_ 4 Ui "% *£ ► ^ » *"^" * ^^ c ^4_ > ^ I cs 112 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION PEICES OF DISCARDED MILK COWS Data over a considerable period are not available. It is highly probable that if prices could be obtained they would be relatively low, owing to the low prices received for live beef cattle (fig. 25). Quotations on cutters and canners have shown a distinct rise at San Francisco and Los Angeles since 1922. 44 ~\ »^\ -Unitt /z-r •^otrt-h Moving Average Cc IZ l/nFor- -Mor rf-h A 'ovihg Ave r-age^ \ '«--* - m ^^ \V >" V ^J*' MB *»^ '/ / /0 /9ZO Zl Z4- /9Z5 Z6 Fig. 25. — Prices of beef cattle in the United States and California, 1910-1927. The lines of trend in this figure are 12 -month moving averages of prices paid to producers for beef cattle in the United States and in California. Since the de- pression in 1921-1922 there has been a distinct upward trend. Prices for dis- carded milk cows follow the above trends. Data: 1910-1925 from U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Statistical Bui. 17: p. 144. 1927. 1926-1927, data from Bur. Agr. Econ., Crops and Markets. COST FACTORS IN THE PRODUCTION OF MILK General Considerations. — Of the many factors entering into the cost of producing whole milk and butterfat the two outstanding items are labor and feed. Studies made by Adams 45 indicated that the com- bined labor and feed items accounted for from 73.5 to 85.7 per cent of the total cost of producing milk ; labor 21 to 37 per cent, and feed 42 to 56 per cent. 44 Quotations from Bureau of Agricultural Economics, San Francisco, and William Armstrong, Los Angeles Union Stock Yards, Los Angeles. 45 Adams, E. L. The cost of producing market milk and butterfat on 246 California dairies. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 372: 150-151. 1923. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 113 TABLE 58 Farm Prices of Veal Calves in the United States, 1910-1927 (Dollars per 100 pounds live weight) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 53 £ 1910 6 41 6.28 6.59 6.54 6.30 6.57 6.37 6.29 6.43 6.41 6.39 6.38 6.42 1911 6.50 6.38 6.48 5.96 5.68 5.72 5.74 5.93 6.11 6.15 6.10 5.98 6.04 1912 6.06 6.07 6.11 6.22 6.23 6.33 6.33 6.62 6.83 6.90 6.77 6.88 6.45 1913 7.00 7.23 7.49 7.38 7.17 7.53 7.46 7.53 7.73 7.72 7.70 7.74 7.48 1914 7.89 7.90 7.92 7.68 7.59 7.69 7.80 8.08 8.06 7.97 7.78 7.61 7.83 1915 7.66 7.62 7.50 7.31 7.35 7.53 7.87 7.75 7.80 7.91 7.69 7.61 7.63 1916 7.67 7.87 8.11 8.00 8.08 8.39 8.54 8.59 8.77 8.59 8.60 8.79 8.35 1917 9.15 9.88 9.94 10.49 10.48 10.60 10.77 10.56 11.08 11.10 10.66 10.98 10.51 1918 11.16 11.17 11.33 11.71 11.62 11.88 12.33 12.22 12.57 12.35 11.94 12.31 11.91 1919 12.39 12.18 12.65 12.78 12.11 12.40 13.38 13.43 13.39 12.87 12.65 12.67 12.76 1920 12.89 13.12 12.98 12.72 11.69 11.68 11.44 11.64 11.88 11.64 10.77 9.27 11.80 1921 9.34 9.08 9.05 7.73 7.55 7.43 7.37 7.31 7.67 7.61 7.20 7.14 7.81 1922 7.23 7.84 7.85 7.26 7.28 7.67 7.49 7.67 8.10 8.17 7.92 7.78 7.68 1923 8.05 8.37 8.20 7.78 7.69 7.66 8.00 8.00 8.34 8.37 7.85 7.75 7.99 1924 8.36 8.51 8.43 8.33 8.14 7.91 7.88 7.94 8.09 8.22 7.89 7.84 8.12 1925 8.50 8.87 9.21 8.80 8.35 8.18 8.65 8.80 9.07 9.52 9.16 9.17 8.85 1926 9.44 9.86 9.75 9.45 8.92 9.65 9.47 9.54 10.06 10.29 9.54 9.44 9.61 1927 9.75 10.10 10.10 9.90 9.37 9.46 9.82 10 37 10.78 Sources of data: kets, 2 : p. 36. 1925. 1910-1924, U. S. Dept. Agr. Supplement to Crops and Mar- 1925-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets. TABLE 59 Farm Prices of Veal Calves in California, 1910-1927 (Dollars per 100 pounds live weight) Aver- Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. age 1910 5.10 5.60 6.00 6.30 5.30 7.00 6.10 5.90 6.50 6.70 6.20 6.30 6.08 1911 7.00 6.30 6.80 7.30 7.30 6.40 5.50 5.90 6.90 6.20 6.20 6.00 6.48 1912 6.00 6 30 6.60 6.80 6 20 6.20 6.10 7.20 6.30 6 40 6.40 6.90 6.45 1913 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.20 7.20 7.30 6.60 7.20 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.00 7.04 1914 7.30 7.60 7.60 7.40 7.40 7.80 7.30 7.70 8.40 7.90 7.70 8.10 7.68 1915 7.90 7.70 7.70 7.80 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.60 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.53 1916 7.60 7.40 7.50 7.70 7.60 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.40 7.70 8.20 7.59 1917 8.00 8.70 8.60 8.80 8.40 8.50 8.40 8.60 9.00 8.60 8.70 9.00 8.98 1918 8 50 8.50 10.00 10.10 10.00 10.00 9 50 10.70 11.10 9.80 10.40 10.30 10.29 1919 10 50 10.80 11 00 11.70 11.43 11.40 11.90 12 00 11.80 11.50 10.60 11.30 11.33 1920 11.00 12 60 12.00 12.00 11.70 10.70 10.90 10.20 10.20 10.20 10.20 10.00 10.98 1921 10.00 9.50 9.20 9.20 8.50 9.00 8.50 8 40 8.30 8 00 7.70 7.70 8.69 1922 7.80 8 20 8.60 8.80 8 50 8.00 7.90 8.00 8.00 8 10 8.00 8.00 8.13 1923 8.10 8 50 8.40 8 50 8 30 8.10 8.60 8.30 8.00 8 50 8.10 7.90 8.28 1924 8.50 8 40 8 80 8.50 8 20 7.50 7.40 7.50 7.80 7.60 7.50 7.50 7.93 1925 8.30 8.60 9.20 9.10 9.20 9 50 9.40 9.50 9.00 9.20 8.80 8.90 9 06 1926 9.70 9.70 9.50 10.00 9.70 9.70 9.10 9.80 9.80 9.10 9 30 9.40 9.57 1927 9.70 9.80 10.10 10.30 10.20 9.50 9.50 9.90 10.00 Sources of data: 1910-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. Prices of farm products received by producers ; 4. Mountain and Pacific States. U. S. Dept. Agr., Statistical Bul. 17 : p. 144. 1927. 1926-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. 114 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 60 Kelative Prices and Purshasing Power of Veal Calves in the United States and California, 1910-1926 All-commodity index 2 United States California Year 1 Relative price, calves 3 Purchasing power, calves 4 Relative price, calves 5 Purchasing power, calves 6 1910 120.7 94.7 100.9 101.8 99.9 102.6 129.0 180.3 197.7 210.1 230.2 149.6 151.5 156.5 152.4 162.0 154.0 93.8 88.3 94.3 109.4 114.5 111.5 122.1 153.6 174.1 186.5 172.5 114.2 112.3 116.8 118.7 129.4 140.5 91.3 93.2 93.5 107.5 114.6 108.7 94.7 85.2 88.1 88.8 74.9 77.9 74.1 74.6 77.9 79.9 91.2 90.2 96.1 95.7 104.5 113.9 111.7 112.6 127.6 146.9 168.0 162.8 128.5 120.9 122.7 117.7 134.3 153.7 87.8 1911 101.5 1912 94.8 1913 102.6 1914 114.0 1915 108.8 1916 87.3 1917 70.8 1918 74.3 1919 79.9 1920 70.7 1921 85.9 1922 79.8 1923 78.4 1924 77.2 1925 82.9 1926 99.8 Sources of data: Col. 2, Bur. Labor Statistics, all commodity index, base 1910-1914 c= 100. Cols. 3, 4, 5, 6, computations by author based upon tables 58 and 59. Col. 3, 1910-1914 s= $6.84 = 100. Col. 4, col. 3 divided by col. 2. Col. 5, 1910-1914 = $6.75 = 100. Col. 6, col. 5 divided by col. 2. FEED COSTS Alfalfa. — As it is difficult to determine the costs of feed to the dairymen in California, perhaps the most valuable information which is available is to be found in a comparison between certain of the more important feeds and dairy products. Since alfalfa is the most important single feed used for dairy cattle, a comparison has been made between the prices of butterfat and alfalfa. That there is con- siderable variation in the quantity of alfalfa hay required to purchase a pound of butterfat may be seen from table 61 and figure 26. No pronounced seasonal variation is evident in the relationship. While a distinct seasonal variation may be discerned with the prices obtained for butterfat, this is not the case with alfalfa hay. Since 1914 there has been a general rise in the amount of hay which one pound of butterfat will buy, showing a rather favorable condition for the farmer purchasing alfalfa hay and showing that it has also been relatively more profitable to market alfalfa hay through feeding. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 115 Pounds k no A \ ft too 90 80 70 Z7 Fig. 26.— Price ratio of butterfat to alfalfa hay in California, 1914-1927. The pounds of alfalfa hay required to purchase one pound of butterfat has varied considerably since 1914. During the twelve years,- 1915-1926, there has been a slight upward trend in the relationship. Butterfat value has been increasing more rapidly that that of alfalfa hay. Data from table 61. The equation for the line of trend is y^= 69.05 + 0.262 x, origin January 1, 1921. TABLE 61 Pounds of Alfalfa Hay Eequired to Purchase One Pound of Butterfat in California, 1914-1927 Aver- Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. age 1914 80 64.5 96.6 82.9 95.8 85.7 102.6 77.5 103.1 77.5 99.7 75.6 96.2 64 79.3 57.3 1915 77.6 73.6 60.0 62.7 71.6 1916 63.3 65.7 56.8 61.6 70 5 54.7 54.9 54.2 61.9 70.4 67.2 62.8 62.0 1917 65.7 57.3 46.5 42.1 59.4 60.1 58.8 67.3 66.4 64 56.6 54.1 58.2 1918 51.8 44.5 44.8 42.9 55.6 57.0 63.6 61.9 66.6 77.2 75.8 81.6 60.3 1919 87.7 64 76.3 83.9 89.5 85.9 83.1 77.8 77.4 82.2 76.6 73.4 79.8 1920 57.6 53.8 45.9 50 2 58.8 58 59.0 67.3 75.9 67.5 63.5 61 1 59.9 1921 58.9 83.1 66.5 86.9 79.8 85.8 101.1 109.6 111.6 118.9 108 76.8 90 6 1922 64.6 64 .3 54.9 45.6 66.7 87.0 94 92.0 98.2 88.0 72 74.7 75 2 1923 74.9 64.2 62.5 65.2 67.3 75.7 75.8 90 76.9 81 4 81 1 73.6 74 1 1924 69.3 60.8 57.8 45 1 43 8 49.4 49.7 48.1 48.9 47.2 45 1 52 3 51.5 1925 49 48.1 45 4 47.0 48.9 74.6 75.0 87.0 105.3 102.4 91.4 80.6 71 2 1926 69.0 60.7 65.8 67.1 78.0 73 79.5 87.6 81.0 79.0 73 76.7 74 2 1927 77.8 76.4 69.0 70.7 77.5 83.5 83.5 Source of data: Computations by author based upon table 35 (p. 80), and the monthly prices for alfalfa hay (to producers in California) published in U. S. D .pt. Agr. Crops and Markets (previous to January, 1927, Monthly Supple- ments to Crops and Markets). 116 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Caution should be used in drawing sweeping conclusions. Oftentimes the dairyman is a purchaser of alfalfa hay when prices are high and a seller when prices are low. Comparatively few dairymen are able to furnish the feed requirements of their dairy animals to a degree approaching exactness. TABLE 62 Butterfat-Barley Eatio in California, 1910-1927 (The number of pounds of barley equal in value to one pound butterfat) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1910 25.7 25.3 21.5 19.4 21.4 25.0 28.4 33.0 31.2 35.3 36.6 33.3 28.0 1911 35.4 31.8 26.2 22.3 19.8 16.8 19.9 21.7 21.1 22.8 22.8 21.5 23.5 1912 23.2 21.3 18.9 15.9 15.3 17.8 20.0 24.7 29.5 27.8 28.9 27.1 22.5 1913 27.7 26.6 29.7 24.8 23.9 24.4 25.5 27.0 28.6 27.0 27.0 25.1 26.4 1914 24.3 21.7 21.1 19.1 23.9 25.2 24.4 34.8 34.9 30.9 34.1 27.4 26.8 1915 26.7 22.7 17.1 18.3 19.6 23.2 30.6 29.2 26.0 27.4 25.6 24.4 24.2 1916 25.0 26.3 21.5 24.3 22.4 22.1 22.8 22.4 23.6 22.5 22.9 20.2 23.0 1917 19.3 20.2 17.0 18.9 15.6 15.7 21.2 23.4 20.6 21.8 20.6 21.5 19.7 1918 21.7 20.8 15.6 12.2 12.6 13.8 19.0 21.0 23.9 29.6 26.8 29.6 20.6 1919 27.4 27.9 24.8 28.5 27.4 22.5 20.3 21.4 25.3 21.6 24.1 25.4 24.7 1920 1921 23.8 27.3 20.4 35.5 20.3 29.6 18.3 29.0 19.3 29.7 18.4 33.0 20.7 34.2 22.4 41.4 27.8 41.5 27.4 45.7 29.5 42.5 27.8 41.0 23.0 35.9 1922 31.1 39.1 29.3 26.1 25.3 25.7 38.8 38.0 46.2 46.5 40.6 42.7 35.8 1923 1924 34.9 37.9 36.7 37.0 31.7 33.3 31.0 25.0 31.6 30.0 31.7 28.5 37.0 21.7 39.1 18.3 43.1 17.6 39.0 18.1 34.3 17.3 39.0 20.2 35.8 25.4 1925 18.5 19.0 23.8 25.3 24.6 29.4 34.9 36.5 39.1 40.7 40.5 36.4 30.7 1926 31.0 37.8 38.5 35.9 38.0 46.0 36.6 39.8 43.4 45.3 41.4 44.3 39.8 1927 45.0 41.2 37.5 34.7 31.0 27.1 28.4 Source of data: Computation by author from table 35 (p. 80) and from prices of barley reported as received by producers in California on the 15th of each month in U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets. Concentrates — Barley. — Perhaps it can be said that no concen- trate is universally used by dairymen in California. One of the methods by which production can be increased is by better feeding practices. That barley is an excellent feed for dairy cattle has been demonstrated by practice and in experiments 46 at the University Farm, Davis. Barley prices have been used to compare with those of butterfat because of their continuity and also because of barley's general availability. In the barley-butterfat ratio (table 62), the prices used have been those received by producers for both butterfat and barley. The relation between butterfat and barley takes into consideration the entire state and relates to no specific section. Since 1910 the trend in the butterfat-barley price ratio has been upward, 46 Woll, F. W., and E. C. Voorhies. The value of barley for cows fed alfalfa. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 216: 1-26. 1914. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 117 butterfat increasing more rapidly in price than barley (fig. 27). The period 1915-1920 was in general unfavorable from the dairyman's standpoint. Since the latter year, with the exception of the period July, 1924-June, 1925, the ratio has been favorable to the dairyman, who is usually a purchaser of concentrates. Bai-)oy 40 30 :4JMM Ww I9IO /I fZ /3 14 1915 17 /8 19 /920 Zl ZZ Z3 Z4 I9Z5 Z« Z7 Yig. 27. — Barley-butterfat ratio in California, 1910-1927. The pounds of barley required to purchase one pound of butterfat has increased steadily since 1910. The trend line should not be extended beyond 1926, as there is no founda- tion for believing that this upward trend will continue. Data from table 62. The equation for the line of trend is y = 27A + 0.699 x, origin 1918. The prices of barley are those reported to have been received by producers and the majority of California's dairymen are not pro- ducers of barley. In most sections of the state barley would be avail- able to the dairymen at prices closely correlated with those listed. The same general movement between butterfat and barley prices characterizes the relationships between the prices of the former and those of rolled oats, coconut meal, and bran for the period 1910-1926. LABOR General Considerations. — While the item of labor is difficult to appraise, general trends in wages can be indicated. Different con- clusions can be drawn from data, depending upon whether a dairy- man is an employer of labor or whether the manual labor is done by himself and his family. California differs from most of -the other western states in that on many of the dairy farms special workers ('milkers') are employed for the milking of cows. In the other states of the west which compete either directly or indirectly with California in milk production this condition is not common as the milking is done by the regular farm help or by the dairyman's family. This latter condition prevails on many of the farms of this state. 118 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Wages of Milkers. — Milkers are employed to milk 'strings' of cows on the larger dairy farms, a 'string' varying from 20 to 33 cows. The milkers' wages listed in table 63 are in addition to board and keep. During the war period these wages increased relatively faster than the prices received for dairy products. The peak was in 1921, the reaction in wages not being felt until 1922. Since 1923 'real' wages paid to milkers have been higher than at any time in the past for which data are available. (Wages can be exchanged for more physical commodities than during previous periods.) There has not been an over-supply of milkers, since the professional milker in this state possesses a skill which the average farm laborer does not attain. In many sections of the state a large percentage of the milkers have been of foreign origin and the restriction of immigration will undoubt- edly cause a further scarcity. For the person or family engaged in doing this type of work the labor income undoubtedly has been larger on this account. TABLE 63 Maximum, Minimum, and Average Monthly Wages Paid to Milkers in California, 1906-1927 Year Low, dollars per month Relatives 1910-14 = 100 High, dollars per month Relatives 1910-14 = 100 Average, dollars per month Relatives 1910-14 = 100 1907. 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 (through October) $30.00 30.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 40 00 40.00 45.00 60 00 80.00 90.00 90.00 70.00 75 00 80.00 80.00 80.00 $70.00 85.7 85.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114 3 114 3 128.6 171.4 228.6 257. 257. 200 214. 228. 228. 228. $40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 45.00 45.00 50.00 50.00 55.00 77.50 100 00 100.00 110.00 90.00 95.00 100.00 100 00 100.00 $100.00 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 107.1 107.1 119.0 119.0 131.0 185.0 238.1 238.1 261.9 214 3 226.2 238.1 238.1 238.1 238.1 $35.00 35.00 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 40.00 40.00 45.00 45.00 50.00 68.75 90.00 95.00 100.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 $85.00 90.9 90.9 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4 104.0 104.0 116.9 116.9 129.9 178.6 233.8 246.8 259.7 207.8 220.8 233.8 233.8 233.8 220.8 Source of data: Murray and Ready, employment agents operating at San Francisco, Stockton, Sacramento, and Los Angeles. Board and room are in addi- tion to the above. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 119 TABLE 64 General Trend of Wages, (Relatr United States and California /es of wages 1910-1914 = 100) , 1910-1927 General wage* level Farm wages t Year and month United States California 1910 101 104 116 132 164 190 227 207 202 220 223 228 234 237 235 233 95 98 102 104 101 101 113 140 185 220 256 151 148 165 168 169 171 160 159 99 1911 102 1912 102 1913 99 1914 99 1915 106 1916 108 1917 140 1918 179 1919 205 1920 247 1921 175 1922 174 1923 214 1924 165 1925 185 1926 182 1927 — January 172 161 July Sources of data: * Weekly earnings of New York factory workers. Weekly earnings in 1914 are considered as 101. Data in New York State Col. Agr. Farm Economics (p. 713). July, 1927. t Wages of farm labor is per diem with board. Original data, Kaufman, E. E. California crop report, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 74 : p. 5. 1927. Data from 1923-1926 based upon July 1 data. General Farm Wages. — General farm wages are of importance on the dairy farm. Incomplete data indicate that these have not risen relatively as high as the wages paid to milkers and further that the decrease has been more rapid since the peak of 1921. Indications are that general farm wages are relatively higher in both the nation and California than the relative wholesale prices of agricultural com- modities, 47 including dairy products. Labor-Saving Devices. — Dairy farmers have been greatly inter- ested in cutting down the cost of labor, since it constitutes one of the largest items of cost. The dairy industry has not adopted machinery as other agricultural industries have, because milk produc- tion has to do primarily with human beings and lower animals. Data from milking-machine firms operating in California indicate that there has been a steady trend towards the adoption of mechanical means of milking dairy cows in certain sections. 47 Yearbooks, U. S. Dept. Agr., and Monthly Supplements to Crops and Markets. 120 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION The other and probably the most important mechanical invention in the dairy business is the cream separator, which revolutionized the skimming of milk on the farm as well as in the large centralized skimming stations and factories. Although the steam boiler, gasoline engine, electric motor, sterilizer, ice-refrigeration plants, silo, feed cutter, and many other machines are standard equipment on the dairy farm, human labor will probably always loom large. LAND VALUES While farm land values are most difficult to measure, the general trend in this and other states may be of interest in the discussion of costs. Comprising from two-thirds to four-fifths of the average farmer's total capital investment, his farm real estate forms his largest single commitment. 48 Since 1912 the greatest growth in the western states in the actual value of both improved and unimproved land has been in California. The period since 1920 is that of especial interest in connection with this study and may serve as a partial explanation of the more pronounced growth of the dairy industry in certain of the other western states. Between 1920 and 1925 the absolute value per acre of farm real estate in the United States decreased 22.8 per cent. All of the western, states with the exception of California shared in this decrease. The latter gave indications of an increase of 9.6 per cent in the absolute value per acre. Whether the reason for the increase was due to an increase in the prices of certain California crops cannot at present be accurately stated. There is an indication that other crops seriously compete with the production of butterfat destined for manufacture into the lower-priced dairy products. In the other western states the competition evidently has not been as keen as it has been in this state, since there are fewer crops with which to compete. Some of the more important crops have been low in price and farmers in many instances have evidently turned to the dairy industry as one of those least disadvantageous. Several of the Rocky Mountain states have been forced to utilize alfalfa which was formerly shipped out and it has been actually and relatively cheaper than in California. It is of especial interest to note that the coast region from Del Norte to San Diego counties, southern California (with the exception of Imperial) and the upper San Joaquin from Merced County north were the areas of largest increase in value. These are among the most important dairying regions of the state. 48 Wiecking, E. H. The farm real estate situation, 1926. U. S. Dept. Agr., Dept. Cir. 377: 1-18. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 121 STORAGE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS COLD STOKAGE OF BUTTER United States. — Such factors as price, current production, esti- mates of future production, etc., determine the amounts of butter which are placed in storage. The influence of a rising price level can be detected by a comparison between peak storage holdings of butter and the production of creamery butter from 1917-1920. The peak of storage holdings has constituted from 5.4 per cent to 8.4 per cent of the total production during the ten years 1917-1926. The percentage relationships between the peak storage holdings (on the first of the month) and the yearly production of creamery butter and the total estimated butter production have been as follows: Year Cold-storage holdings Percentage of creamery butter production Percentage of total butter production 1917 14.4 12.5 15.5 13.4 8.8 9.7 8.2 11.5 9.5 10.3 6.5 1918 6.6 1919 8.4 1920 7.5 1921 5.4 1922 6.3 1923 : 5.5 1924 8.0 1925 6 6 1926 7.2 The indices of seasonal variation 49 in creamery butter holdings for the United States for the period 1917-1925 (indices relate to first day of each month) are as follows: January 88.4 February 61.2 March 37.8 April 18.4 May 11.2 June 22.6 July 105.1 August 175.9 September 197.4 October 188.3 November 163.7 December 129.9 49 Seasonal variations computed by author by Falkner method as described in Mills, F. C. Statistical methods. 604 pp., 87 diag. Henry Holt and Company, New York. 1924. 122 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Cold-storage holdings are at the low point about May first (fig. 28). Although holdings increase during May the bulk of the movement into storage takes place during the months of relatively high pro- duction — June and July. A further into-storage movement occurs during August, the fourth month of the year with an above-normal production. From September (peak of holdings) to May, during eight months of the year, the out-of-storage movement is in progress since during these months there is a below-normal production of creamery butter. The role of storage in equalizing the supplies of creamery butter can thus be readily seen by comparing production (table 15, p. 47) with seasonal indices of storage holdings in the United States. erf at VaH a+ion Jan. I Man/ Mac// July! Sep/:/ Nov./ Fig. 28. — Seasonal variation in cold storage of butter in the United States (based upon data from September, 1916 to August, 1926). The cold-storage season for butter in the United States usually commences about May first, although the earliness or lateness of the season and the subsequent amount of production, together with the price, determine the exact time. June and July are the months of heaviest storage receipts. The into-storage movement usually culminates about September first, butter moving out of storage from October to April. Data from page 121. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 123 TABLE 65 Cold-Storage Holdings of Creamery Butter in the United States, 1915-1927 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Year Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 June 1 1915 , 1916 48,977 46,134 50,726 43,910 53,737 58,682 48,412 26,819 30,229 65,694 52,785 34,355 31,139 30,474 26,618 36,777 38,359 41,486 35,047 16,122 15,246 45,748 39,381 17,967 15,033 16,952 18,808 24,191 22,568 27,103 22,582 8,910 9,847 28,789 26,313 8,086 3,346 6,805 14,629 11,909 12,555 14,732 9,113 4,824 7,842 10,875 17,392 3,033 1,082 3,607 9,536 9,659 7,554 7,712 3,830 3,248 8,913 3,739 17,527 3,432 7,017 1917 9,953 1918 12,698 1919 . .. 29,435 1920 12,872 1921 21,682 1922 13,202 1923 10,112 1924 22,348 1925 13,036 1926 30,561 1927 25,340 Year July 1 Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 1915 68,578 102,537 88,992 88,305 123,546 101,455 82,838 103,151 101,774 134,118 109,075 131,152 145,147 101,662 105,836 108,179 99,334 131,388 115,558 92,292 112,039 102,731 156,440 128,403 138,151 163,037 99,450 100,522 109,154 87,883 121,816 113,385 90,116 96,680 96,117 153,494 114,172 125,342 92,719 85,260 100,115 80,874 100,474 101,778 77,983 73,857 76,472 135,018 94,916 100,871 71,849 1916 53,863 49,982 49,140 90,158 52,526 61,991 67,410 62,768 74,184 63,687 86,897 90,116 79,292 1917 79,928 1918 65,111 1919 73,654 1920 79,750 1921 65,129 1922 47,773 1923 51,508 1924 100,832 1925 74,754 1926 64,381 1927 Sources of data: 1915-1926, U. S. Dept. Agr., Creamery butter: Cold storage holdings, United States. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1926: p. 1077. 1927; 1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. TABLE 66 Cold Storage Holdings of Butter in San Francisco, 1918-1927 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Year Jan. 1 Feb.l Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 June 1 Julyl Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 1918 1,393 2,005 1,559 1,361 1,522 2,015 3,075 1,026 2,223 2,393 1,343 1,947 1,087 1,059 1,408 2,042 3,006 1,299 2,175 2,712 963 1,588 914 867 946 1,630 2,557 1,172 1,852 2,493 784 1,351 809 424 702 1,156 1,707 808 1,476 538 1919 262 475 683 497 115 340 346 814 427 77 233 616 400 175 157 356 609 222 31 312 389 62 118 24 160 251 80 6 220 212 39 5 4 83 362 222 194 264 282 396 380 604 42 724 215 1,035 1,025 866 1,056 881 1,975 522 1,068 860 1,682 1,402 1,288 1,469 1,451 2,646 732 1,836 1,607 912 1920 672 1921 . 414 1922 351 1923 687 1924 936 1925 653 1926 987 1927 Sources of data: August 1, 1918-January 1, 1922, information to author from U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office). February 1, 1922- 1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office). Butter, cheese, eggs, and dressed poultry. (Mimeographed daily one-page market reports). 124 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 67 Cold Storage Holdings of Butter, Los Angeles, 1923-1927 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Year Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 June 1 Julyl Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 1923 157 389 693 898 754 272 140 366 652 526 55 85 304 277 117 60 206 55 251 150 279 1,012 284 607 492 766 1,342 673 1,436 846 2,283 2,514 1,815 2,873 2,119 2,624 3,235 2,533 3,322 2,708 2,549 3,189 2,623 3,127 2,564 1,875 2,424 1,939 2,676 2,244 1,326 1,872 1,622 2,253 932 1924 1,238 1925 1,346 1926 1,678 1927 Source of data: U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office). Butter, cheese, eggs, and dressed poultry. (Mimeographed daily one-page market reports.) Note. — Data published every Monday for holdings of preceding Friday. Figures taken on date nearest to the first of the month. California. — On account of the greater production during the winter months, California is less dependent on storage supplies than other sections of the country. With the earlier season and the sub- sequent greater production the low point in storage is reached about April first (in 1926 and 1927 March first), and the high point occurs earlier — August first (fig. 29). While Los Angeles data are not available over a long period, indications point to a movement similar to that at San Francisco. COLD STORAGE OF CHEESE American Cheese in the United States. — Storage holdings of American cheese differ from those of butter in that there is far less range between the high and low points, which is partially explained by the ripening process through which cheese goes. The into-storage movement usually begins in May when production is increasing and holdings are augmented until the peak is reached on September first. Beginning in October, the production declines rapidly and the out-of- storage movement continues during the period of low production. California. — Owing to the small percentage of supplies produced in the State, the storage situation is prhaps influenced more by out- of-state than by local production. Holdings at San Francisco show a lag behind the country as a whole — the low point (first of month considered) being June first and the high point October first. Data for Los Angeles are not available for a sufficient period to indicate a definite variation. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 125 h 0) i> 3 3 126 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 68 American Cheese: Cold Storage Holdings in the United States, 1915-1927 (Hundred thousand pounds — i.e., 00,000 omitted) Year Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 June 1 Julyl Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 1915 286 241 324 313 1916 286 189 134 84 65 73 164 316 468 496 457 371 1917 319 221 156 98 79 116 342 676 915 907 781 752 1918 668 563 377 280 177 204 301 488 557 421 334 256 1919 198 155 98 68 60 125 375 626 767 814 729 625 1920 532 436 340 234 170 135 297 515 604 550 486 399 1921 341 250 175 143 135 178 349 413 466 452 430 341 1922 277 214 150 107 109 155 331 466 536 495 409 373 1923 336 496 492 585 546 266 405 416 503 461 207 352 346 426 394 145 283 277 380 352 141 262 261 356 325 175 272 296 393 358 368 452 465 541 496 558 659 666 736 671 640 764 765 813 699 624 732 786 777 579 679 719 725 551 1924 587 1925 665 1926 639 1927 Sources of data: 1915-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr. American cheese cold storage holdings. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1925: p. 890. 1926; 1926-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Crops and Markets. TABLE 69 Indices of Seasonal Variation in Cold Storage Holdings of American Cheese, United States, September, 1916-August, 1926 (Indices are for first day of each month) January 1 103.0 February 1 82.2 March 1 60.5 April 1 43.7 May 1 40.3 Junel 47.9 Julyl 96.6 August 1 142.5 September 1 163.3 October 1 157.6 November 1 141.5 December 1 121.0 Source of data: Calculations by author based upon data in table 68. Link relative method used in computing above indices. TABLE 70 Cold Storage Holdings of Cheese, San Francisco, 1923-1927 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omi tted) Year Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar.l Apr. 1 May 1 June 1 Julyl Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 1923 724 841 1,240 877 833 562 619 998 794 644 436 503 905 563 519 337 416 687 394 398 387 278 455 376 295 525 315 416 334 471 748 668 444 449 535 1,006 1,233 979 808 737 1,060 1,475 1,279 904 998 858 1,534 1,297 1,005 924 1,156 1,730 1,202 933 716 1924 1,419 1925 1926 1,089 905 1927 Source of data: U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office.) Butter, cheese, eggs, and dressed poultry. (Mimeographed daily one-page market reports.) Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 127 TABLE 71 Col© Storage Holdings of Cheese, Los Angeles, 192, (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) 1927 Year Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 June 1 Julyl Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 1923 1,328 1,421 1,732 786 2,031 1,555 1,222 1,362 577 1,759 1,206 1,049 1,077 384 1,481 865 605 745 303 1,171 669 389 763 262 872 477 596 810 640 755 888 1,501 1,143 1,112 1,037 1,241 1,851 1,109 1,622 1,343 1,770 2,097 1,307 1,828 1,556 2,103 2,092 1,051 2,014 1,557 2,062 2,015 1,016 2,242 1,884 1924 1,998 1925 940 1926 2,275 1927 Source of data: U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office.) Butter, cheese, eggs, and dressed poultry. (Mimeographed daily one-page market reports.) Note. — Data published every Monday for holdings of preceding Friday. Figures taken on date nearest to the first of the month. CONDENSED AND EVAPOEATED MILK While the storage of butter and cheese are taken for granted, it is not generally recognized that large stocks of both condensed and evaporated milk are usually held by manufacturers (table 72). The peaks and depressions do not occur with as much regularity as in the case of butter in storage although the high points during the seven years 1920-1926 have generally occurred between July first and October first. The depressions usually take place before the flush of the milk season in the country, e.g. from February to April. Gen- erally higher prices prevail for milk destined for condenseries when stocks are low and vice versa. TABLE 72 Total Manufacturers' Stocks of Condensed and Evaporated Milk in the United States on the First of Each Month, 1920-1927 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Month 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 122,917 106,986 136,530 237,005 226,382 218,349 243,571 245,915 275,156 315,381 302,800 274,681 238,894 180,745 135,967 103,699 118,318 178,367 232,558 235,056 174,254 177,672 172,410 188,709 189,355 176,440 155,662 141,883 145,779 173,827 187,518 161,856 158,368 122,833 86,788 69,042 67,780 79,772 83,815 101,000 126,530 170,583 190,343 194,350 228,348 225,940 211,334 191,149 191,418 155,349 138,362 127,464 142,838 199,986 288,459 282,431 242,635 202,977 180,054 159,593 123,428 91,205 90,869 110,565 140,899 193,307 187,636 194,865 212,903 207,263 185,624 165,682 156,272 136,015 118,346 115,417 128,496 153,710 228,156 242,102 241,547 207,422 174,909 137,532 101,320 80,228 70,327 66,610 83,104 48,771 229,433 277,379 300,135 March April May June July December Source of data: 1920-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr. Total manufacturers' stocks of condensed and evaporated milk in the United States on the first of each month. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1925: p. 1077. 1926; 192(3-1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ., Monthly condensed and evaporated milk report (mimeographed one-page report). 128 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION DOMESTIC TRADE IN PRODUCTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY DALEY CATTLE While the exchange in dairy products is obvious, there are perhaps few who appreciate the magnitude of the dairy-cattle trade in this state. Importations of dairy cattle into California have been more or less limited to pure-bred animals in the past and these have con- tributed largely to the producing abilities of the grade animals in the state. Inter- and Intrastate Shipments. — With the increase of California's population, together with the difficulties and expenses involved in raising calves on dairy farms supplying market milk, has come an importation of both grades and pure-breds from other states. During 1926 almost seventeen thousand dairy cattle were shipped into the state; the shipments originated in twenty-seven different states and one foreign country. Arizona, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Washington, Colorado, Wisconsin, Texas, Canada, and Nevada contributed the largest numbers (table 72). Shipments into Los Angeles County. — Approximately two-thirds of these animals were required for replacements and additions to the herds of Los Angeles County. A situation such as exists in this county is not unique to California; similar conditions have been observed in populous areas of both other states and Europe. 50 A realization of the needs of the producers of market milk in sections with a deficiency of feed (in relation to the number of dairy cattle) by dairymen in areas where the reverse is true might prove to be mutually advantageous. Health regulations are becoming in- creasingly important throughout the State. Los Angeles County has recently passed an ordinance 51 requiring that all cattle shipped in (except for slaughter) be free from tuberculosis and in addition originate in herds with less than 10 per cent reactors. One or the limiting factors in supplying the requisite number of animals from within the state has been the prevalence of tuberculosis in many sections. (See fig. 44, p. 177). In addition to being free from tuberculosis, animals destined for market-milk production in the more populous centers must possess a high potential producing ability. 50 Laur, Ernst. Die Betriebsformen der Landwirtschaft. [Types of farm management.] xii + 287 pp. Verlagsbuchhandlung Paul Parey, Berlin. 1920. 51 Los Angeles County Ordinance 1415. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 129 TABLE 73 Importations of Dairy Cows into California, 1926 Destinations by counties Sources by states or country 33 23 3 1 4 13 67 141 7 124 49 410 333 11,341 1 51 1 66 2 14 196 14 8 120 21 3 1,182 61 565 78 29 175 28 1 1,069 2 83 62 46 134 197 46 17 4,145 4 Amador Canada 556 Colorado 767 Connecticut 3 El Dorado 2,313 1 1 Humboldt Iowa 49 Imperial 3 Inyo Kern 277 Lassen Missouri 14 Los Angeles Montana 249 Madera 1 Marin 535 3 Merced 11 New York 6 Monterey North Dakota 10 Ohio 3 Placer 3,584 3 Riverside Texas 590 Utah 1,736 San Benito 1 1,277 San Diego 679 Total . San Joaquin San Mateo Santa Cruz Shasta Siskiyou Solano Sonoma Tehama Ventura Yolo Yuba Total 16,822 16,822 Source of data: California State Dept. Agr., Sacramento, Calif. 130 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 74 Origin of Dairy-Cattle Shipments into Los Angeles County, 1925-1927 (Numbers represent animals originating in state or county listed) State 1925 1926 County (California) 1925 . 1926 Arizona 3,672 1,387 572 227 1,384 49 77 2,958 2,317 1,953 1,301 1,113 1,045 338 307 132 70 35 24 20 Tulare 854 948 Idaho Yolo 756 Colorado Kings 391 427 306 15 195 103 256 357 391 145 181 57 25 643 Oregon Imperial 381 Utah 380 Washington Ventura 340 319 Montana Fresno 314 Texas Kern 278 Wyoming 217 Riverside 229 219 208 26 40 1 202 112 93 Humboldt 89 78 59 11 55 27 451 60 50 23 4 7,652 11,613 4,302 5,730 1927 Interstate Intrastate 805 426 1,106 487 1,173 456 601 562 819 443 1,171 684 1,493 917 1,664 289 Total January... February March April May June July August 1,231 1,593 1,629 1,163 1,262 1,855 2,410 1,953 Source of data: stock Inspector. Furnished by L. M. Hurt, D.V.M., Los Angeles County Live- BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 131 DOMESTIC TRADE IN BUTTER United States. — Distribution of human and dairy-cattle population is such that the semi-perishable and canned products of the dairy industry (butter, cheese, and condensed milk) loom large in trade channels. These can be produced in the localities possessing the great- est possible advantages (or the least possible disadvantages) for the product in question. While California and the other western states place butter on middle western and eastern markets at times, and shipments are made from middle western and eastern states to the west, for all practical purposes the eleven western states can be con- sidered an entity. In the eleven western states California with its large urban population is the dominant factor in demand. California. — Complete statistics on interstate movements of butter from and to California are not available over long periods of time. From references in the press and from the comments of long- established wholesalers such shipments have occurred since the fifties. That shipments of butter from eastern points at times before the war played a considerable role on California markets can be readily seen by observing the quotations on eastern butter appearing in the press. Actual statistics on the origin of butter supplies on the San Francisco market are available since 1921, while similar material for Los Angeles is complete since 1925. The percentage of receipts on the San Fran- cisco market originating in California has been decreasing during the five years 1922-1926 (fig. 30). The largest percentage of receipts originating in other states has in the past generally occurred from May to October, while California offerings are generally the largest from March to June, inclusive. March and April are sub-normal months for the producton of butter in the country as a whole and are the last months of the out-of-storage movement. During May, on account of the early season in California, a considerable volume of butter is being placed in storage in San Francisco, while in the United States in its entirety the storage movement is just gaining headway. Again, the season is earlier in the dairy sections of California than it is in most sections of the western states. Receipts at Los Angeles and San Francisco. — The largest portion of the out-of-state butter on the combined San Francisco and Los Angeles markets originates in the states west of the 100th meridian — Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, and Washington (1926) (figs. 33 and 34). However, there are indications on the San Francisco market, at 132 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION least, that supplies of butter from the Mississippi Valley States of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have been increasing since 1921. The imports from Canada during 1925 were also considerable. Fig. 30. — Keceipts of butter at San Francisco, 1926-1927. There has been a distinct upward trend in butter receipts originating outside the state at San Francisco. Keceipts originating in the state have shown a downward trend, which would be more pronounced if the butter manufactured in San Francisco could be added in the diagram. Data from table 75. The origin of butter supplies on the Los Angeles market are of interest both on account of the large number of states contributing to the supply and on account of the large amount originating outside of the state (fig. 31). In 1926, sixteen states outside of California sent butter to the Los Angeles market (in 1925, nineteen). Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 133 cd -I cd CD 3 3 ? -i 3 2' o -1 CD cd 3 3 3 n ? p" o to os b 3 1 3 3" 3 2' e a CD -1 n CD 3 3 3 3r ? o o H o CD 3 rt- 5 5 L ? o' a o M CD CD 3 n- 3 3 EL ? 3 P* e O -3 > 3 r o to 3S 33 Iff 3 TO « s- d 3 3- i 3 3 CD < P P 3 CD ?; p E if p B c 3 3 o 3' i i 5 3 — p o California Arizona Colorado CO i CO 1,742 88.7 2,055 83.1 1,594 91.3 2,247 73.6 1,827 84.6 1,883 64.5 00 CO h- CO CO OS CO ©to »«». os co »— en p 13 1,582 93.6 1,524 94.6 1,685 94.2 1,597 83.9 1,714 85.8 1,685 71.8 >*». M C 3 Cn Ol tO si OS Cn *». "*. CD cr 2,152 94.8 1,959 98.1 1,926 97.6 2,014 96.6 2,348 87.5 2,120 84.3 to CO 00 to co rf«. co rfs. CO co Cn to © en p 2,619 • 99.1 2,406 96.5 2,613 91.4 2,788 97.9 2,644 86.0 2,641 87.2 to OS OS to CO co to OS Cn to to sj Cn •a o -*° S . M £ . M S . M S . M ® . 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I Fig. 32. — Seasonal variation in butter receipts at San Francisco, 1913, 1914, and 1925. Eeceipts of butter at San Francisco give evidence of a considerable change over a period of years. The peak of receipts is received later in the year than formerly. This condition has been brought about by the increase in receipts from outside of the state, which come later in the year. Some influence may have been exerted by butter manufacture in San Francisco. Data from table 78. Bul, 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 135 136 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA— EXPERIMENT STATION Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 137 c i c •' | j ( d ! I > : 1 i i j I \ 1 9 : i | 5 o ? ■s T> 3 -»• 5 3 ? 3 5' O 9) B 1 ■s 3 3 f 3 2' O o •i r o 3a 1 (J 3 | 3 ' 9 3 f 3 < 1 I > 3 li 1 V i i [• B 3 S" 1 5 c 1 1 - I f f \ j ?! 5 5 2 1 > 2. 8° ■^ St OQ a EG 2,910 66.0 3,358 60.6 2,956 54. p CO CO en . 00 to CO OS CO eo 00 : OS to 4? to to en to eo 4*. 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I_» <° b tO ^5 - CO J 35 o Ui § jL ► 5 to O 138 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION During the past five years, the amount of butter shipped out of the state has been at times considerable, amounting to 3,873,827 pounds in 1926, 52 a large part of this, however, being exported to foreign countries. During 1926, receipts on four markets — New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston — from California amounted to 289,002 pounds, of which 286,947 pounds were unloaded in Phila- delphia. Shipments to eastern points usually occur during the spring months when the production exceeds the requirements. TABLE 77 Monthly Receipts of Butter at San Francisco, 1910-1927 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) Aver- Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total age 1910... 802 916 1,549 1,704 1,668 1,705 1,097 1,285 793 703 969 731 13,922 1,160 1911.... 1,036 935 1,915 2,191 2,176 2,949 1,873 2,009 1,547 1,509 1,738 1,115 20,993 1,749 1912.... 1,408 1,456 5,146 2,500 2,547 2,391 2,903 2,364 1,984 2,023 1,770 1,680 28,172 2,348 1913... 1,726 1,454 1,964 2,711 2,703 2,106 1,711 2,594 1,479 1,538 1,433 1,703 23,122 1,927 1914... 1,932 1,690 2,107 2,811 2,435 1,964 1,872 1,766 1,330 1,464 1,315 1,735 22,421 1,868 1915... 1,594 1,554 2,576 2,996 3,155 2,775 3,599 2,591 2,024 1,921 1,732 1,832 28,349 2,362 1916... 1,791 1,766 2,469 3,404 3,259 3,066 2,212 2,284 2,141 1,881 1,856 1,900 28,029 2,336 1917.... 1,388 1,668 2,378 3,045 3,355 2,685 1,857 1,731 1,626 1,729 2,011 1,557 25,030 2,086 1918... 2,278 1,851 2,564 3,129 2,771 2,170 1,549 1,500 1,278 1,684 1,538 1,332 23,644 1,970 1919... 1,267 1,480 2,014 2,792 2,955 2,457 2,179 1,752 1,090 1,339 1,460 1,332 22,117 1,843 1920... 1,488 1,665 2,174 3,141 2,767 2,197 1,744 1,789 1,661 1,800 1,565 1,572 23,563 1,964 1921... 1,652 1,441 1,982 2,345 2,256 2,306 2,359 2,710 2,064 2,538 2,370 1,718 25,741 2,145 1922... 1,742 1,583 2,152 2,619 2,731 2,742 2,177 2,257 2,034 2,228 1,862 1,789 25,916 2,160 1923.... 2,055 1,524 1,959 2,406 2,462 2,883 2,616 2,224 1,878 1,906 1,656 1,942 25,511 2,126 1924.... 1,594 1,684 1,925 2,613 3,498 2,698 2,552 2,283 1,952 1,806 1,704 2,102 26,411 2,201 1925... 2,247 1,597 2,014 2,788 2,920 2,843 2,829 2,932 2,034 2,254 2,130 2,175 28,763 2,397 1926... 1,827 1,714 2,348 2,644 2,597 2,920 2,604 2,699 2,362 2,491 1,667 1,730 27,603 2,300 1927... 1,883 1,685 2,120 2,641 2,925 3,190 2,919 2,627 1,897 Sources of data: 1910-1911, computations by author based upon data in weekly issues of Pacific Dairy Review, San Francisco, Calif. 1912, U. S. Dept. Agr. Receipts of butter at the seven leading markets of the United States. Yearbook, 1912: p. 687. 1913. 1913, ibid., 1913: p. 469. 1914. 1914, ibid., 1914: 627-628. 1915. 1915, ibid., 1915: p. 525. 1916. 1916, ibid., 1916: p. 677. 1917. 1917, ibid., 1917: p. 728. 1918. 1918, ibid., 1918: p. 608. 1919. 1919-1926, ibid., 1926 : p. 1071. 1927. 1927, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office) Review of the butter market at San Francisco (mimeographed one-page report). Total receipts at San Francisco have shown only a slight upward trend since 1910 (table 77), as large amounts of butter have been manufactured within the city, and in addition it is probable that supplies destined for the East Bay cities of Alameda County were formerly routed through San Francisco more frequently than at 52 Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Statistical Pub. 71: p. 14. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 139 present. Records at Los Angeles would undoubtedly show a phenom- enal upward trend, but unfortunately, data were not, until 1925, col- lected or compiled by either public or private agencies. It is probable that data for Los Angeles are not complete, owing to the difficulties involved in obtaining information on truck shipments. Seasonal Variation in Butter Receipts, San Francisco. — Receipts for San Francisco have been changing seasonally (fig. 32, p. 134). The variation for the period 1912-1925 is shown in table 78. The greatest changes have occurred during March, April, June, July, August, and September. In general the tendency has been to reduce the relative receipts during the first four months of the year with the exception of February, while the opposite tendency is evident from June to December, with the exception of the two months of August and November. From the evidence at hand it would appear that the tendency for June and July to show higher indices is due to the fact that larger amounts of butter enter the state during these months. TABLE 78 Seasonal Variation in Butter Eeceipts, San Francisco, 1912-1925 (Normal month = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1912. 1913. 1914 1915. 1916. 1917. 1918. 1919. 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 85 4 85.4 84.3 83.7 85.9 79.7 78.1 80.3 82.4 80.9 78.9 81.1 80 9 81.0 72.3 72.3 75.4 79.7 81.8 82.8 80.1 81.1 78.7 77.2 75.2 73.6 73.4 73.5 120.9 120.9 119.4 118.5 116.7 118.1 115.6 105.9 106.9 99.2 94.2 92.9 92.3 90.7 134.1 134.1 136.8 144.3 148.0 151.1 147.9 149.8 140.0 127.7 124.5 121.9 120.4 120.6 133.5 133.5 132.0 132.1 144.0 145.7 142.6 135.9 138.3 135.7 132.4 129.6 134.1 134.3 118.5 118.5 117.1 116.2 119.6 121.0 118.5 120.0 123.2 120.9 127.3 127.5 127.1 127.3 92.2 92.2 91.1 90.4 92.7 93.8 105.0 105.2 108.0 107.2 112.4 117.8 117.5 117.6 117.2 117.2 115.8 109.4 87.4 87.8 86.0 87.1 89.4 107.9 107.2 105.5 105.1 105.3 73.0 73.0 78.2 77.6 79.7 80.6 79.8 80.8 83.0 91.1 92.1 93.5 93.3 93.4 84.1 84.1 83.1 82.5 84.7 85.6 86.4 87.5 89.8 88.1 90.1 88.2 88.0 84.8 84.8 83.8 83.2 75.0 76.7 84.5 89.9 81.8 80.3 80.3 78.6 78.4 78.5 84.0 84.0 83.0 82.4 84.5 77.1 75.5 76.5 78.5 83.8 84.8 89.8 89.5 89.7 Source of data: Computations by the author based upon table 77. Seasonal variation computed by method described in University of Illinois, Bur. of Business Research. The method of analyzing business data. University of Illinois, Bur. of Business Research, Bul. 8: 25-46. 1925. Daily Variation in Receipts. — A study of daily receipts might be of value since an even distribution throughout the week might make for a more desirable product. If, as receipts increase these could be available on days which are now low in total receipts, present facilities might be better utilized. 140 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 79 Daily Variation in Eeceipts of Butter in San Francisco, 1924-1926; and in Los Angeles, 1925-1926 (Normal day = 100) San Francisco Los Angeles 1924 1925 1926 1925 1926 100.8 111.0 97.2 94.2 87.2 108.6 102.6 106.2 94.8 96.0 82.8 117.6 105.0 102.7 86.5 101.6 93.0 111.2 71.7 82.5 129.0 79.7 89.6 147.5 79.9 Tuesday Wednesday...- 82.0 129.3 68.4 91.1 149.3 Source of data: Computations by author based upon data in U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. (San Francisco Office) Butter, cheese, eggs, and dressed poultry (mimeographed one-page daily report). In making calculations only ' normal ' weeks were considered. Weeks containing holidays, together with those which might be affected by holidays in previous or subsequent weeks have not been utilized. At San Francisco, Wednesday and Friday have been below normal in butter receipts for each of the three years 1924, 1925, and 1926 (table 79). The San Francisco variation might be somewhat different if the butter manufactured in the city could have been included in the calculations. Los Angeles receipts showed considerable variation during 1925 and 1926. Saturday proved to be the day of high receipts, followed by Wednesday. On the remaining four days, receipts were below normal for both years. The collection of data for receipts on the Los Angeles market is gradually being improved. In the future information on receipts should be more accurate than it has been in the past. Prices showed but little variation between the various days of the week. DOMESTIC TBADE IN CHEESE Interstate. — The concentration of cheese production makes for a trade of considerable magnitude. A study of the receipts of the larger markets together with the production statistics of the country reveals the fact that Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent New York, dominate the cheese trade of the country. While the eleven western states are practically self-sufficient in butter production, evidence based on data for 1925 and 1926 indicates that large amounts of cheese are shipped into the area from middle western and eastern states, and in addition considerable amounts have been imported through Pacific ports. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 141 Shipments into California. — This state has been dependent upon outside sources of supply for a considerable period (figs. 35 and 36), as is shown by reference to shipments from other states contained in the Statistical Reports of the California State Board of Agriculture up to 1918. On the basis of data collected by the Bureau of Agri- cultural Economics and the California State Board of Agriculture, receipts of cheese (including amounts manufactured, interstate ship- ments, and foreign importations) amounted to 31,172,214 pounds in 1926, of which 8,269,127 pounds were manufactured within the state. Thousands Fig. 35. — Receipts of cheese at San Francisco, 1922-1927. Out-of-state receipts (exclusive of foreign imports) give evidence of an upward trend at San Francisco. Receipts from California have been decreasing rapidly. Data from table 80. Receipts during the past five years indicate that both quantitatively (except for 1926) and relatively the amounts received from within the state have steadily decreased. Idaho, Oregon, and Wisconsin supplied the largest amounts of cheese to the combined Los Angeles and San Francisco markets in 1926, and indications since 1921 point to a steady and continuous increase in the percentage of cheese shipped by these three states (fig. 37). California cheese apparently does not take well on certain markets of the state owing to (1) poor reputation of the cheese in the past, (2) small amount manufactured, (3) lack of standardization of this small amount, and (4) lack of advertising. 53 53 Letter from C. A. Phillips (Dairy Industry Division, U. of C.) to author. December, 1926. 142 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Thousands Of* Rounds /9Z& /Bze /9Z7 Fig. 36.— Eeceipts of cheese at Los Angeles, 1925-1927. The amounts of cheese shipped to Los Angeles from California points is small compared with that originating outside of the state. From the data available indications are that the seasonal variations are far greater for the latter shipments than for the former. Data from table 81. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 143 s (D H 2 a e* 3 O p_ o" -1 3 5' a o J? CD -1 a I 3 ■» I i 1. CD to OS s s © a 5, 3" 3 3 CO to J? a s s If i ? 3 to' o to 4- 5? s 3 ? Si f o to CO 7 s 3 I 3 5' CO to to H o ? T 1 ( < 3 5' 5 3| 35' o i. 3 3 p B J 5' 5. o 3 New York Utah 9 * r 3 -1 P P IB s § ° < 3 J - 5' IS 3 5' o c- p V o ©_ o p Co o > o CO P a> 503 43.5 588 43.0 725 34.3 973 42.8 850 13.6 708 21.8 00 Cn o to : Cn to Cn -~J : co Oi s to o : to to : to P-> 4>. ,_i to h- en >*»■ os os e-i SB 634 41.3 571 45.5 944 36.3 534 27.0 530 18.3 703 10.9 Cn co © to i— *. co : oo to to o i— to CD *1 a 1 tO t-i CO CO ,_, >*» -J *» CD ** tO « 1— O ~4 • OO • OS • O • —J ■ !*>. OSOOt-ii— H-K-Ot*»-CnOOs^I OS P-» OO OS »*>■ CO 00 os en m co : CO CO o to oo to OS K- en oo co Cn Cn S H 688 35.9 858 494 700 26.6 667 30.7 1,146 24.1 1,121 21.2 OS to CO CO to H- to CO M » H O _ OS ►-> CO CO to -a > 907 38.5 1,054 35.3 1,046 21.6 1,083 21.6 1,267 25.3 1,284 22.0 to OS to en ~4 CO OS CO OS tK „ HO Cn M m -g Cn CO p << 963 39.6 1,172 33.3 1,227 20.1 1,197 19.9 1,630 23.6 1,369 18 5 OS CO ° I— OS Cn Cn O CO H O H (B tn M Cn to CO H to -a cn os CO oo Cn c CD 901 33.9 1,360 18.6 1,579 11.7 1,613 11.4 1,517 14.1 1,622 14.7 Cn CO cn tO Ol ^ M co to en O Cn M OS OS to M tf>. 00 to 1,148 29.4 1,237 22.6 1,103 15.4 1,703 10 3 1,298 13.0 1,357 18.0 to CO OO co to *- to «© ~J O M Cn h in CO to oo en OS co 877 43.3 985 27.5 837 16.1 1,035 15.0 1,177 10.6 1,122 25 0* ~J £ to O tO !*>• 00 O CO CO ►— CO CO CO to co co CO CO oo to cn g 5 N* *•* tO tO CD O -^J os Cn 00 • CD * CD ■ CD ■ OO MtOMHWMCDMOlO CO o •— to o oo to CO to © CO to Cn to ^i to to CO O 4>. CD *- -4 OS o l-» 1— tO tO ,_, tffc OS OS to >**. - to OS • OO • ~J • *- • Cn to CO *> cn i— OS to to Ilk to » CO * o to to © en |— © o < i_. *- CO u M w : O ~J to O - cn 00 ■ OS • OS ■ o • --J CD O O Cn CO OO en CO >-» to I** tO. OS CO -_r — — - i -. to to en to CO 00 Cn H 00 p *-t5>-'^to^co£co co 05.CO-tO.l-i.~J- Cn • OO • •*»■ • -J • h- cococncn^jootooto^j O Cn to i— OO }o Cn CO o to CO to M Os co "►- cn to oo to 1— coenooi^to m ^ io tocncototo H^ONOo o -J CO to CO to © to oa r ^ -1 2.2 1% !z| o ca o O w H r/j H > H H S er O n •^ 3 a- > 3 O o o O w Si s i J> to H \o o os to *• o g ti 1 I- 1 > o o n 1 to -*J H CD Co § fed 144 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 145 t- a B B r t c ( j 1 I d i : l : : : ; ! ■5 i c I 1 3 3 3 3 5* s o 3S 1 i ( ? 1 3 1 3 3 ? g 3 3' a o -3 5 3 r o S3 3S •- ( i < i 3 < - n s 3 « | ! j i i 5. ! !, - 5 : I 5 1 > 3 =! < > J 1 ! 1 z| i t \ - a : ! i S ! ! j 1 LI F M i ! H ) California Arizona Colorado Idaho Illinois QQ P 0) 877 18.2 851 20.3 874 32.7 00 Cn 1 »*. 00 H- OS 00 CO l-i CO *>. -4 M cn to to Ch P p 523 18.5 599 27.5 677 19.6 en CO CO © to tO OS CD © to 00 >*». H 0O Cn OS en CD 569 32.2 1,128 18.4 900 23.4 to OO to en H bO tO M ►— OS © CO 4*. tO OS OS OO © OS to 00 © OO p CO O - OO CO ■ to • CO en os *- © -J Cn K- OO CO to o to © >4- p-> to to to co to >*- Cn os >-» cn „ K- © rfk H- to M CO tO H o 963 19.3 2,022 12.9 1,029 30.6 to © to to Cn © to Cn i— •** Cn tf*. k- k- ^ i-> Cn h- to tO © © ►-> OS M H 00 tO O p 1,642 8.2 1,519 13.3 1,299 25.8 en CO CO CO en to h-l tO ^) *». to ►— to to CD rf»- Cn to © £ © to C-( g CD 1,427 28.5 1,719 14.1 1,435 17.5 5 CO Cn Cn OS CO CO OO >fc. Cn ^1 OS CD © ►*». to tO « M Cn ">-> >-» to^oscn Cn^j^cocotototOH-to coos^^ioo^i 0>tDO«30>*.OOOltO*HsICO||kM tO tO O CO H o co CD o >*- - © CO CO CM Ot tc s CO © © GO © p to 00 tO CO cn C;> © Cn ^J O O ci- 146 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION FOREIGN TRADE IN DAIRY PRODUCTS CALLFOKNIA'S SHAKE IN FOKEIGN TEADE The Pacific Coast produces a small fraction of the dairy products of the country, yet the exports from this section for the past two years (1925-1926) have accounted for approximately one-third of the total value of exports of dairy products from the United States. Condensed and evaporated milk constitute the largest amounts of exports both from the country and the Pacific Coast. Unlike the United States as a whole during the past few years, California ports have exported increasingly large amounts of these products (table 82). Almost 50 per cent of these were consigned to the Philippine Islands during 1925 and 1926 ; China accounted for fully 20 per cent, and the remainder was absorbed largely by the areas bordering the Pacific Ocean. With the exception of a very few years during the past decade, butter exports from California ports have been greater than the imports. This would be especially evident if the exports to Hawaii were added to the totals shown in table 82. During the two years 1925-1926, approximately 50 per cent of the water shipments from San Francisco and Los Angeles have been consigned to Hawaii, where butter from the mainland competes directly with that from New Zealand. 54 The latter country has an advantage in freight rates over Pacific Coast ports. Mexico, Central America, the west coast of South American countries, the Philippine Islands, China, and Japan obtain considerable quantities of the product exported from California. Competition must be and is upon the basis of quality on account of the higher prices of the California product. A considerable part of the export butter is packed in tins, on account of the great distances of shipment and climatic changes. Since California butter on account of its superior quality has been able to compete, especially in South America, with other butter, in spite of the differential between the world and domestic prices, it seems reasonable to expect a more favor- able position for the California product should world prices improve. Imports of butter through California ports have fluctuated greatly, although since 1920 they have appeared with considerable regularity. 5 4 Imports of butter into Hawaii from New Zealand (thousand pounds) : 1923, 732; 1924, 1,269; 1925, 1,235; 1926 (11 months), 954. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 147 TABLE 82 Expoets of Butter, Cheese, Condensed and Evaporated Milk, Powdered and Dried Milk, California Customs Districts, 1900-1926 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Butter Cheese Evaporated and condensed milk Powdered and dried milk Year ending June 30 k 03 .*« O a J co el 1° Total 1+2 h a .«- o CO o3 as co Total 4+5 a 03 co 03 dl CO Total 7+8 d 03 ~ 22 as CO as m'P U o -a ^3 co Total 10+11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1900 625 426 383 586 304 165 201 220 73 76 85 139 272 47 105 1,638 2,099 763 292 194 698 1,016 869 1,167 1,044 1,033 840 1,031 8 7 5 5 5 6 4 15 2 6 5 5 9 * * 10 13 22 306 8 15 30 38 1 37 49 45 43 633 433 388 591 309 171 205 235 735 81 90 143 280 47 105 1,648 2,112 785 597 202 713 1,046 907 1,168 1,081 1,082 885 1,074 591 634 562 614 506 498 319 327 284 271 263 217 253 250 243 277 285 385 702 755 548 523 523 404 312 269 259 242 10 14 10 9 6 7 5 8 7 3 8 6 10 * 9 8 13 16 25 37 50 61 600 647 573 623 513 505 323 335 291 274 270 223 263 250 243 286 298 398 719 781 585 574 584 405 351 314 300 275 887 1,950 2,326 1,487 1,116 6,146 4,049 3,488 2,517 2,154 8,079 6,536 16,833 16,634 18,321 25,653 30,613 29,522 87 117 101 * 86 76 137 260 90 229 232 193 9 244 315 291 305 973 2,067 2,427 1,487 1,116 6,231 4,125 3,625 2,777 2,244 8,308 6,768 17,026 16,643 18,564 25,967 30,904 29,827 224 37 632 567 574 65 80 31 1 1 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 Calendar years 1918 1919 1920 224 1921 37 1922 663 1923 40 45 41 33 568 1924 575 1925 .. 65 1926 1 81 * Statistics for Southern California not segregated. Sources of data: 1920-1925, Dept. of Commerce, Commerce and Navigation of the United States, 1920-1925. 1926, information furnished to author by the Dept. of Commerce. Cheese exports from the ports of the state have always been of minor importance. Excluding Hawaii, which received approximately 350,000 pounds during 1925 and 1926, China, the Philippine Islands, Mexico, and Central America took the bulk of the remainder. 148 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Cheese imports through the state's ports, on the other hand, are of considerable magnitude. Before the war these had reached over three million pounds in one year. Since 1919 they have steadily increased, until in 1926 the pre-war level was again reached. The imports originate in the main in Europe, particularly in Italy and France. Undoubtedly the foreign population of the larger centers contribute appreciably to this demand for foreign cheese. TABLE 83 Imports of Butter and Butter Substitutes, Cheese and Cheese Substitutes, California Customs Districts, 1900-1926 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Butter and butter substitutes Cheese and cheese substitutes Year ending June 30 San Francisco Southern California Columns 1+3 San Francisco Southern California Columns 4+5 1 2 3 4 5 6 1900 632 805 881 1,083 1,326 1,344 235 1,900 1,665 1,529 2,359 2,407 2,682 1,567 3,290 2,812 1,855 376 76 62 1 69 196 962 1,193 2.015 2,307 2,107 15 6 647 1901 811 1902. 881 1903 10 50 26 10 209 126 160 121 178 290 314 494 153 53 16 3 2 4 9 22 97 203 371 439 545 1,083 1904 1,376 1905 1,370 1906. . 1 1 245 1907 . 2,109 1908 1,791 1909. . 1,689 1910 2,480 1911 19 19 2,585 1912 2,972 1913 57 1,638 248 57 1,638 248 1,881 1914 3,784 1915 2,966 1916 1,909 1917 392 1918 1,024 489 1,024 489 79 Calendar years 1918 64 1919 5 1920 378 2,158 620 536 84 606 114 378 2,158 620 750 84 607 114 77 1921.. .. 219 1922 1,059 1923 214 1,396 1924 2,386 1925 1 2,746 1926 2,652 Sources of data: Dept. Commerce, Commerce and Navigation of the United States, 1900-1925. 1926, information furnished to the author by the Dept. of Commerce. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 149 The question of increasing the exports of dairy products to the Orient is one which apparently interests producers and manufacturers of the entire Pacific Coast. Thus far the condensed and evaporated milk trade has been augmented but that in butter and cheese remains small. Difficulty in obtaining supplies of fresh milk in the Orient unquestionably has been responsible for a large proportion of the former trade. Evidence points to the inclusion of canned milk in the diet of some of the peoples of the Orient. Any increase in the exports of either butter or cheese to the Orient will materialize only through the medium of education as to the value of these products and the cultivation of a liking for them. In addition, prices cannot be prohibitive in the countries to which they are sent. If a trade should develop, the Pacific Coast states would have to meet severe competition from Canada, Australia, and New Zealand in supplying these products. IMPOETS AND EXPOETS OF DAIEY PEODUCTS, UNITED STATES The foreign trade of the United States in dairy products has not been extensive during the past few decades (fig. 38). In 1880 the exports of butter amounted to 40 million and those of cheese to 125 million pounds. By 1890 butter exports had dropped to about 30 million and cheese to 95 million pounds, while in 1900 butter exports had decreased 10 million pounds and cheese had fallen to less than 50 million. During the pre-war' period, 1909-1913, the country ex- ported an average of 2,479,000 pounds of butter or about 0.15 per cent of the approximate production during those years. During the same period cheese showed a net import balance of an average of 41,204,000 pounds or approximately 12.5 per cent of the estimated domestic production of the period. Net exports of condensed and evaporated milk during the pre-war period amounted to 14,354,000 pounds or less than 3 per cent of the total production. With the destruction in Europe and the subsequent diminution in the number of dairy cattle, prices abroad for dairy products were exceptionally high in 1918 and 1919, at the close of the war. Net exports of butter reached 25 million pounds in 1919 (or about 1.6 per cent of the domestic production) and cheese exports for 1918 amounted to a net total of almost 41,000,000 pounds (or about 10 per cent of the total production). Condensed milk exports increased at a phenomenal rate during the war on account of the demands for army use, reaching the peak in 1919 when the net total amounted to 836,000,000 pounds (over 40 per 150 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION cent of the production for the year). Since 1919 there has been a pronounced tendency for a decline. With the falling of world prices in 1920 the American butter price was the best obtainable, and butter began to flow into the country. Imports have exceeded exports in every year since 1919 with the exception of 1922. Cheese imports have shown an increasing tendency to rise during the six years, 1921-1926. Mi///on Pounds 40 30 ZO to - a\\ /\ \ A / i n \ \ •^. \ r t ~)ome ~xpo ri~s y f \\ / \ \ \ -h + -t- +- i I i l 1 \ / Vl- i\ I 1 V ^^ i J \n 1 \ 1 ■ 1 /mporis ~for i i 1 1 Consump-f/on ■ • , 1 1 i i I I j \ i 1 / 1 1 I i \\ \C i 1 / 1 I i 1 /900 OZ 04 06 08 /9/0 /2 14- /6 /8 I9Z0 ZZ Z4- Z<8 Fig. 38. — Domestic exports of butter from the United States, 1900-1926; and imports of butter for consumption in the United States, 1918-1926. No definite long-time trend is discernible in domestic exports of butter. Since 1919 the trend has been definitely downward. Imports for consumption have been erratic, showing no definite trend. The dairy industry is delicately adjusted at present and a pronounced increase in production making for an excess of exports would result in a disturbed condition on the butter markets of this country. Data from table 84. The production of the three products (condensed milk, butter, and cheese) can be expressed in terms of whole-milk equivalents. Con- verting the three products into whole-milk equivalents, the period Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 151 1909-1913 gave evidence of an import balance of approximately 325,000,000 pounds of milk (fig. 39). From 1915 to 1922 the United States showed a balance of exports (milk equivalents of three products). Since 1922 the balance has been on the side of imports, tnat for 1926 being approximately 500,000,000 pounds (513,431,907). The total import balance would be considerably higher if the net imports of milk and cream were taken into account. The author estimates that approximately 300,000,000 pounds should be added for milk and cream to the 1926 balance. The latter imports were almost exclusively from Canada. The import balance is very small, being approximately 1 per cent of the production of the nation. TABLE 84 Domestic Exports and Imports for Consumption of Butter, United States, 1910-1926 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) Year Exports Imports* Year Exports Imports 1910 1911 3,104 6,375 5,105 3,115 3,688 17,943 26,561 7,193 26,194 1,386 894 1,006 1,178 7,788 3,696 721 524 1,479 (1,593)* 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 34,556 17,488 8,015 10,938 5,846 8,257 5,343 5,483 6,962 37,626 1912 17,735 1913 7,111 1914 20,810 1915 19,279 1916 6,861 1917 6,727 1918 * Imports 1910-1917 are for fiscal years. (1593)= imports for fiscal year 1918. Domestic exports represent butter manufactured within the United States; imports for consumption represent butter which is to be consumed in the United States, e.g., butter manufactured in Canada and imported into the United States but not intended for consumption would not be included in imports for domestic consumption. Source of data: 1910-1925, yearly summaries from U. S. Dept. Commerce, Commerce and Navigation of the United States, 1910-1925. 1926, information furnished to the author by the U. S. Dept. Commerce. Destinations of Butter Exports. — A small amount of butter (be- tween 5 and 6 million pounds) has been absorbed by comparatively steady markets during the past few years. Of these, Mexico is the largest, importing about one million pounds annually. Cuba follows, although purchases from this country during the last five years have decreased. 55 Increased competition with Europe and an increased Cuban production have contributed to this decrease. 55 Wulf ert, M. A. United States foreign trade in dairy products. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Commerce Eeports, 12: 728-730. 1927. 152 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Cheese Concen-f rated Milk ieo<3-/8 1 1918 /9I9 ■ /9ZO | I9ZI I9ZZ I9Z3 /9Z* /9ZS /9Z6 1 1 Buffer- , Cheese, and Concenirai-ed Mi/A- Combined /mpor+s fTxpof—f-s eoo d <*" M 3 3" « ft> P as _ P CD >-* ^t * 9^ w o' S" ^ hi ct? Ss ft (u U| ^ *> * -fck £ § Qo o N ft a grt. Kja> p « H^ o O * P h ^C^ t? P ^H2 5° Co P 3 P« CO H DO OQ 2 d o O t3 co Q o T3 hj CD 5" 3 P - 5' p rt p Pj o CO P P o < O Ms so ! 3 < CO ►"< CO P O Hj CD P CD rt- CD P rt CD P co O a P "• TQ O P pu M ro P O P rt O CD O* s«/ p P H» rt O «5 CD B t> H er 1 9 CO P HJ P o p rt- it T) o pj P+ d •5 3 rt 5 P co" < P P P co rt P CO ^ A O CD P □B o 3. 9 P u a d p r O 3 o o p GO CO d i-i ro w t -i pa s " CO BE Pj p p ;* '-1 ft Pj > P p 3 as | J o — p *\ he rt P G p co d Bj 4 W > C a d CD g J* 9 CD rs P CD Ci I rt < d rt X OQH5 CD Hj P P CD CD O r» P P >-i CD t* N fc \ x*" — X r- — — s y f ~~* •MM <■ '**■ *** •— ' — V. -«— . •*«.„ — . ^ ^* *>-. > f> s 1 | ^-». -**, t- > T*° ii ^ •js* ^ *< •-• ""••"^ < . -^ \ **>^ ** ^. >» ^> f ^ «*'***' .— — — ^mm y , x> 4 -> 158 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 87 United States Foreign Trade in Cheese, 1922-1926 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) IMPORTS (General) Countries 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 Denmark 93 210 379 435 4,444 1,817 31,256 2,899 13,632 319 984 1,048 105 445 1,413 270 112 5,567 1,491 33,829 2,937 15,993 288 209 89 265 516 3,259 782 16,628 2,254 12,011 268 6,351 3,913 4 1,010 5,121 1,456 28,034 2,498 16,982 797 3,105 4,343 1 1 1,871 5,424 Greece Italy Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom Canada 2,570 35,026 3,471 16,736 258 11,835 232 78 320 1,297 33 2,053 Total 46,573 64,420 59,176 62,402 78,420 EXPORTS (General) Germany Canada Panama Mexico Cuba Jamaica Haiti Virgin Islands (U. S.)... Honduras Peru China Philippine Islands Other countries Total.. 39 321 332 1,294 1,345 389 107 25 705 5,007 757 349 920 1,474 231 91 70 105 75 134 98 3,983 8,331 432 173 359 872 1,146 189 81 116 122 100 554 1,299 3,204 1,301 420 1,001 1,057 261 114 67 74 148 246 112 1,186 11 248 441 797 850 277 100 67 70 130 187 115 610 3,903 Sources of data: 1922-1924, Wulfert, M. A. International trade in butter and cheese. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Trade Promotion Series, 31: p. 43. 1926. 1925-1926, Wulfert, M. A. United States foreign trade in dairy products, 1926. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Commerce reports, 12: 728-730. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 159 Imports of Cheese, — A total of 78,420,296 pounds of cheese were imported into the United States in 1926, this amount being 14,000,000 pounds larger than the record imports of 1923, while exports were the lowest since 1914. Italy supplies nearly one-half of the cheese imports, followed by Switzerland, Holland, France, Greece, and Canada. The latter country during 1926 contributed nearly twelve million pounds, compared with 208,871 pounds in 1925 and 984,072 pounds in 1924. TABLE 88 United States Exports of Concentrated Milk, 1922-1926 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) Country 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 United Kingdom Germany 19,302 28,437 19,254 3,874 3,474 3,137 6,937 4,838 7,069 91,175 32,835 31,201 28,412 5,059 3,933 4,784 12,173 5,242 6,157 64,468 28,782 62,281 33,771 4,681 4,165 3,565 16,315 4,300 6,892 41,528 29,481 31,223 19,550 4,569 3,818 4,680 19,015 5,870 6,962 22,595 23,341 4,809 Cuba 17,359 Panama 4,171 Mexico 4,424 Peru 3,288 Philippine Islands 17,664 China 7,066 Japan 5,231 Other countries 27,196 Total 187,497 194,264 206,280 147,763 114,549 Source of data: U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. Foreign and Domestic Commerce, information to the author. Powdered Milk. — Exports of this product have been erratic with reference to amounts shipped. Demand from Europe, especially from Germany and Great Britain, has greatly lessened. Trade with the American tropics, South America, and the Far East has declined less than that with Europe. Imports on a considerable scale have been received from Canada. TARIFF ON DAIRY PRODUCTS The tariff on various dairy products is shown in table 98. The tariff will benefit the dairymen only if domestic demand is equal to, or in excess of production. A tariff under ordinary circumstances is of little benefit if the country is on an exporting basis. 160 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN DAIRY PRODUCTS The types of dairy product originating in different countries and the demands for them are so dissimilar that it is necessary to discuss individually each of the three chief products entering into interna- tional trade. The trade between producing and consuming countries experienced an upheaval during the World War, from which some of them have not yet emerged. Butter. — During the five years, 1909-1913, an average of approxi- mately 700,000,000 pounds of butter was annually placed upon the world market. 56 The bulk of the international trade in butter in the years just before the war was between European countries, although Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina had become factors of some importance. During the World War shipments dropped as low as 206,000,000 pounds. The destruction of dairy cattle and the scarcity of feedstuffs throughout Europe caused dairy production to be cur- tailed. With the close of the war the world trade began to be resumed somewhat upon the old lines. European production gradually in- creased as feed became plentiful and cheap. Outside of Europe production had been stimulated and in 1926 the butter entering into the international trade totaled over 900,000,000 pounds, a greater quantity than before the war. The United States, Germany, France, and Denmark are the world's largest producers of butter, although a study of the world trade reveals that these countries do not rank in the export trade in this same order. The leading exporters are Denmark, New Zealand, Holland, Russia, and Argentina. The increase in butter supplies during the past two decades has come largely from the southern hemisphere — New Zealand, Argentina, and Australia. Denmark and Holland have again reached the pre-war export levels. Russia did not reappear on the world markets until 1923 and exports still remain lower than before the war, even when the exports from the former Baltic provinces of Russia are taken into consideration. Between 1909 and 1913 Russia ranked second only to Denmark in the amounts of butter exported. Before the war, as well as at present, the United Kingdom was by far the world's largest market for butter, taking approximately s 6 Wulfert, M. A. International trade in butter and cheese. U. S. Dept. Commerce Trade Promotion Series, 31: p. 51. 1926. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 161 75 per cent of the world exports. After allowing for re-exports, the amount of imports retained for consumption was 626 million pounds in 1926 against 616 million pounds in 1925, 570 million in 1924, and 452 million in 1913 (see table 89). TABLE 89 International Trade in Butter of Various Countries, 1910-1926 (Hundred thousand pounds — i.e., 00,000 omitted) Exports Imports Year Argen- tina Austra- lia Canada Den- mark Nether- lands New- Zealand Russia Ger- many Switzer- land United Kingdom 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 63 31 81 83 77 102 125 217 418 449 474 569 540 615 654 593 642 879 1,017 667 758 541 180 754 723 411 390 924 1,276 796 538 1,111 1,285 829 46 31 88 8 12 27 34 80 49 137 176 97 84 132 223 266 98 1,951 1,975 1,878 2,007 2,101 2,240 2,111 1,355 323 806 1,650 2,030 2,076 2,462 2,720 2,707 2,921 725 665 863 817 844 934 798 542 54 302 456 445 510 528 766 876 1,004 399 339 423 417 486 471 402 285 483 387 349 1,006 1,255 1,400 1,422 1,395 1,307 1,244 1,687 1,608 1,720 1,190 1,194 928 1,236 1,225 1,196 110 120 119 112 89 57 9 4 1 133 183 160 151 147 200 191 178 4,845 4,819 4,486 4,636 4,462 1915 4,316 1916... 2,436 1917 2,023 1918 1,768 1919 1,747 1920 172 34 24 29 1,179 2,130 2,159 1,906 1921 3,947 1922 4,781 1923 1924 1925 1926 110 445 551 5,707* 5,922* 6,557* 6,518* * Excluding Irish Free State, from which shipments were not separately reported prior to April 1, 1923; the corresponding imports were: 1923—515,553; 1924—540,498; 1925—610,556; 1926 . Sources of data: 1910-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. International trade in butter and cheese. Foreign Crops and Markets, 13: 182-185. 1926. 1926, Argentina, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Argentine dairy industry during the year 1926. Foodstuffs 'Bound the World. World Dairy and Poultry News, p. 1. July 15, 1927. Australia, computations by author based upon data in Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), Copenhagen, Denmark, 1927 (35) : p. 616. 1927. Canada, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Canada has increase in butter and decrease in cheese production in 1926. Foodstuffs 'Round the World. World Dairy and Poultry News, p. 4. March 25, 1927. Denmark, Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets. Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), 1927 (26) : p. 466. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. Netherlands, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Netherlands production and export of butter and cheese. Foodstuffs 'Round the World. World Dairy and Poultry News, p. 3. June 3, 1927. New Zealand, monthly data reported by U. S. Dept. Commerce added by author to obtain total. Monthly data given in various issues of the U. S. Dept. Commerce. Foodstuffs 'Round the World. World Dairy and Poultry News. Germany, Landbrugsraadet. Landsbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), 1927 (3) : p. 37. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. 162 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Germany in pre-war years was second only to the United Kingdom as a butter-importing country, the imports amounting to an average of 111,440,000 pounds annually during the five years 1909-1913. During the period from the close of the war until the summer of 1924 the imports of butter were small for economic reasons. With the stabilization of German currency in 1923 the imports reached the pre-war level in 1924, and during 1926 amounted to 215,577,000 pounds. A considerable amount of this increase has come about through the decrease in domestic production, which is lower than during pre-war years. The butter imports into other countries are comparatively small. Cheese. — The volume of world trade in cheese is not quite so large as that of butter. Owing to the various types of cheese entering into this trade, some of them are not competitive. During the period 1909-1913, approximately 530,000,000 pounds represented the volume of the world trade. The pre-war level was reached in 1922 and a steady increase has taken place since that time. The increase in exports has originated almost wholly in the southern hemisphere. The largest cheese producing countries are Italy, the United States, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, Switzerland, and New Zealand. Previous to the World War, Canada was the greatest exporter; this position has been taken by New Zealand, which is now followed by Holland, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, and France. The United Kingdom is the market for approximately 50 per cent of the cheese entering world trade, although Germany, Belgium, France, and the United States are large importers. Russia has not been a factor in the cheese trade. Condensed and Evaporated Milk. — Comparing the post-war with the pre-war period, the world trade in concentrated milk has increased phenomenally. Radical changes have come about in the relative positions of the exporting nations. Before the war, Switzerland was the principal exporting nation, followed by Norway, the United States, Italy, and Canada. The Netherlands and the United States now occupy the dominant positions in the export trade, followed by Switzerland, Denmark, and Canada. The United Kingdom is the principal market for concentrated milk as for other dairy products, although Germany, the Philippine Islands, France, South Africa, India, Japan, and China have taken considerable quantities. The Asiatic markets have been of particular interest to the Pacific Coast. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 163 TABLE 90 International Trade in Cheese of Various Countries, 1910-1926 (Hundred thousand pounds— i.e., 00,000 omitted) Exports Imports Year Canada France Italy Nether- lands New- Zealand Switzer- land France Italy Ger- many United Kingdom 1910 1,809 252 575 1,228 506 694 466 148 460 2,751 1911 1,819 240 614 1,136 492 666 494 119 460 2,630 1912 1,635 277 675 1,311 646 664 476 101 473 2,586 1913 1,552 314 723 1,453 685 787 519 124 579 2,573 1914 ... 1,447 223 660 1,496 967 776 455 98 2,726 1915 1,376 136 658 1,903 915 748 467 35 3,054 1916 1,690 117 393 1,996 1,063 472 263 3 2,917 1917 .. . 1,807 74 23 1,236 992 129 120 3,300 1918 . 1,695 44 9 329 989 27 112 7 2,640 1919 1,522 62 18 274 1,761 14 152 112 2,372 1920 1,264 127 28 997 1,369 32 212 59 503 3,080 1921 1,337 144 167 1,153 1,533 106 351 18 600 3,156 1922 1,339 218 321 1,438 1,301 462 506 156 520 2,978 1923 1,162 279 504 1,366 1,614 390 457 102 249 3,179 1924 1,215 344 741 1,704 1,786 438 390 42 967 3,234 1925 1,507 357 862 1,757 1,542 517 406 39 1,487 3,474 1926 1,347 315 729 1,857 1,538 620 347 79 1,413 3,375 Sources of data: 1910-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. International trade in butter and cheese. Foreign Crops and Markets, 13: 182-185. 1926. 1926 data, Canada, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Canada has increase in butter and decrease in cheese production in 1926. Foodstuffs 'Bound the World. World Dairy and Poultry News, p. 4. March 25, 1927. France, Italy, U. S. Dept. Commerce. International trade in butter and cheese. Commerce Reports, 1927 (40) : p. 22. Netherlands, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Netherlands production and export of butter and cheese. Foodstuffs 'Round the World. World Dairy and Poultry News, p. 3. June 3, 1927. New Zealand, monthly data reported by U. S. Dept. Commerce added by author to obtain total. Monthly data given in various issues of U. S. Dept. Com- merce. Foodstuffs 'Round the World. World Dairy and Poultry News. Switzerland, Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Announcements), 1927 (12) : p. 273. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. Germany, Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), 1927 (12) : p. 273. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. United Kingdom, Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricul- tural Council's Announcements), 1927 (3) : p. 37. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. 164 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 91 International Trade in Concentrated Milk, Average 1909-1913, Annual 1923-1925 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) Year ended December 31 Country Average — 1909-1913 1923 1924 1925— Preliminary Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Exporting: 4,463 259 c ll 806 e 39 261 3 201 727 4,575 d 4,724 5,913 55 132 32,106 80,539 rf 16,200 6 79 177 4 987 163 3 989 177 10,398 1,016 668 645 7,083 9,443 46,948 1,546 25,124 8,872 12,623 10,752 16,855 51 190 10,697 249,859 6 12,726 41,056 66,969 6,791 227,393 1,443 16,069 55,827 194,264 156 104 Canada 155 40,251 71,198 13,559 233,901 1,408 13,311 58,225 206,280 13 281 119 40,614 57,739 Italy Netherlands 855 236 31 685 120 6,619 946 1,399 1,426 010,033 9,461 47,974 1,740 20,168 26,753 12,642 10,926 17,890 8 150 10,026 244,379 771 291 93 ' 1,169 68 6,964 1,187 4,313 17,324 248,674 1,144 Norway Switzerland 16,848 67,555 147,763 Importing: 742 / 8,694 11,236 4,484 28,457 M.628 2,458 66 10,061 c 6,136 12,311 5,605 28 21,227 121,175 5 / 1,096 217 "87 A 14,124 Cuba 125 7,483 582 61 160 4,916 570 74 1,171 19,991 28,392 *4,637 253 France Germany ; Japan 4,140 12,080 6,001 1,428 *110 c 74 43 91 9,922 247,523 92 I 48,221 20 1 13,825 51 1 11,023 Union of South Africa . United Kingdom 6 14,299 Total, twenty-five 240,351 209,578 415,349 645,112 424,622 655,309 340,869 620,859 a Includes some preserved milk. 6 Year beginning July 1. c Two-year average. d Four-year average. e Three-year average. f Not separately stated. Source of data: U. S. Dept. Agr., Bur. Agr. Econ. densed milk. Foreign Crops and Markets, 13: p. 186 9 Twelve months' sea-trade, three months' land-trade. h Sea-trade only. 1 One year only. 1 Includes some powdered milk. * Five months ' Less than 500 pounds. International trade in con- 1926. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 165 THE FOREIGN DAIRY SITUATION Dairying is of importance in almost all of the occidental countries in both the northern and southern hemispheres (table 92). The industry was one of the first in Europe to begin re-establishing itself after the close of the war in 1918. The trend of imports and exports in both butter and cheese for the chief countries participating in the international trade in these two products will be found in tables 89 and 90. The foreign dairy situation in the various countries con- cerned with international trade is briefly described in the following paragraphs. A continued increase in exports from the southern hemisphere and northwest Europe does not appear probable. Supplies are large and prices have been falling (outside of the United States). In addition, ocean freights have risen during the past two years. Argentina. — There has been but little change in the exports of butter from Argentina since 1923. In common with the other export- ing nations in the southern hemisphere the dairy industry experienced its greatest growth during the war period. Cheese exports are rela- tively unimportant. Australia. — Exports of butter have been declining since 1925. In the first eleven months of the season 1926-1927, exports totaled 75,200,000 pounds. A corresponding period in 1925-1926 reported 95,400,000 pounds; 1924-1925, 140,000,000; and 1923-1924, 62,200,- 000. 57 This reduction in exports has been brought about by a reduced production and an increased consumption. Cheese exports have never assumed great importance. Canada. — Exports of butter have been irregular, but those of cheese have been fairly constant. The trend in cheese exports has been downward over the past twenty-six years. Until 1913 (1901- 1913) Canada was the world's largest exporter; at the present time it is below both New Zealand and Holland. Denmark. — A steady upward trend in butter exports has been maintained, and first place over New Zealand has been held. The first six months of 1927 indicated an increase of 6-7 per cent over the similar period for 1926. Cheese exports declined. The general increase in exports is due to a pronounced increase in the number of cows, especially during 1925. Prices for butter were approximately 57 Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), (25) : p. 454. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. 166 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION 7 per cent lower in 1927 than in 1926. 58 Concentrated-milk exports have been declining during the three years 1924-1926. TABLE 92 Head of Cattle and the Number of Cows in Various Countries Country 1 Year 2 Specification 3 Number of dairy cows, in thousands 4 Total cattle, in thousands 5 Percentage of cows as compared with total i cattle 6 1922 1924 1923 1926 1920 1926 1925 1925 1927 1925 1926 1926 1926 1925 1926 1926 1918 1923 1923 1921 1926 1924 1924 1924 1920 1926 1925 1921 1924 1926 3,295 2,305 1,075 892 83 3,951 119 2,332 1,513 361 1,292 7,701 9,160 3,164 901 1,421 2,600 57 580 1,086 1,280 765 1,686 612 1,739 873 3,800 2,264 20,166f 22,290 37,065 13,357 2,163 1,712 1,877 9,160 4,335 4,691 2,912 555 1,860 14,282 17,195 7,368 1,848 4,614 8 9 17.3 49.7 52.1 4.4 43.1 4.4 49.7 52.0 65.0 69.4 53.2 53.3 Cows and heifers in milk or in calf. Cows 42.9 Hungary.. 48.8 30.8 Italy 1,469 891 2,064 3,413 1,114 5,400 3,436 2,734 1,587 8,000 6,202 38,632 59,289 3.9 Cows Cows in milk or in calf. Dairy cows Milk cows Cows in milk Dairy cows 65.1 52.6 37.5 68.6 31.2 17.8 63.6 55 Ukraine 47.5 36.5 Union of Soviet Republics 52.2 United States Milk cows 37.6 t The number of cows in the Union of Soviet Republics in 1925 was 23,849,200, according to The World's Butter Review, Future of the butter industry in Russia. The World's Butter Review 1(2) :29. 1927. Sources of data: International Institute of Agriculture. Annuaire Inter- national de Statistique Agricole, 1924-1925: (International Yearbook of Agri- cultural Statistics for 1924-1925) pp. 26, 39, 55, 61, 83, 94. 1925. International Institute of Agriculture. International Crop Report and Agricultural Statistics, 15: pp. 196, 594. 1924; 16: pp. 129, 279, 603. 1925; 17: pp. 84, 85, 181, 553, 685. 1926; 18 : pp. 32, 33, 75, 129-130, 171, 283, 347. 1927. International Insti- tute of Agriculture. Dairy cow testing in different countries. Wir'tschaft und Statistik, 3 : p. 66. 1926. 58 Landbrugsraadet. Communications), 1927 Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's (26) : 469-470. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 167 Esthonia. — Since the war the former Baltic provinces of Russia have shown a decided tendency to increase exports of butter. With the exception of Finland, comparisons before 1920 are not available. Exports of butter from Esthonia during the past five years 1922-1926 have been as follows: 59 1922 2,203,280 pounds 1923 5,174,420 " 1924 7,026,180 " 1925 14,207,500 " 1926 19,293,300 " Finland. — Exports of both butter and cheese now exceed those of 1913. Since 1923 the exports of both products have shown a dis- tinct upward tendency as the following data indicate: 00 Exportslof_Butter Exports of Cheese 1913 27,866,144 pounds 2,698,430 pounds 1923 14,475,404 " 2,943,141 " 1924 18,183,541 " 5,610,707 " 1925 29,083,083 " 8,421,572 " 1926 29,127,175 " 6,364,680 " The first nine months of 1927 show substantial increases in the amounts of butter exported, and cheese exports have been a third larger than those of 1926. France. — Little change in milk, butter, or cheese production has taken place in France during 1924, 1925, 1926. Milk and butter production are slightly less than they were in 1913 ; cheese production is slightly larger. Germany. — The reappearance of Germany on the world market has afforded a much needed outlet for the increased supplies of butter and cheese. Imports of both butter and cheese during 1926 were far in excess of what they were at any time since the war. This situation has been brought about mainly by the depletion of herds during the war. Boundary changes have had some little influence no doubt in making for the larger imports. There has been a steady increase in the number of dairy cows in Germany during the three years 1924-1926, and with the interest taken in cow-testing work so U. S. Dept. Commerce. Butter exports from Esthonia. Foodstuffs 'Round the World— World Dairy and Poultry Products, pp. 2, 3. Mar. 11, 1927. 60 Bank of Finland. Exports of the most important articles. Monthly Bui. 5: p. 13. Helsingfors, Finland. 1927. 168 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Germany may steadily become more self-sufficient. Imports during the first seven months of 1927 indicate a tendency for imports of both butter and cheese to be approximately the same as for the corre- sponding period in 1926. Great Britain. — Imports of butter into the United Kingdom are now considerably larger than they were before the war. Approxi- mately the same amounts of butter were imported during the first eight months of 1927, 1926, and 1925. There has been an actual increase in imports, although a considerable portion of it occurs on account of the separate statistics now used for the Irish Free State (see Irish Free State). Formerly butter exported from the Irish Free State to England was not classed under imports. Cheese importations attained the largest volume in history in 1925, although a slight falling off was noticeable in 1926. The United Kingdom is the leading importer of butter and cheese and likewise of concentrated milk. Imports of the latter product are twice as large as before the war. Holland. — Exports of cheese, butter, and concentrated milk have shown a decidedly rapid upward trend since 1918, offerings of the latter two in 1926 being larger than before the war. Exports of cheese have shown a distinct tendency to rise during the first quarter of 1927. Holland is rapidly displacing the United States in the European market for concentrated milk. Factory methods have been applied to dairy manufacturing activities, and as a result Holland appears to be in a strongly intrenched position in the dairy industry as far as markets are concerned. Italy. — Italian cheese exports reached the largest total on record in 1926, a large amount of which found a market in the United States. The large number of Italians who are now resident in the United States has had an influence on the cheese exports from Italy. Italy's cheese exports amount to only about one-eighth of the total produc- tion, as domestic cheese consumption is very large. Italian cheese exports had reached considerable volume in 1913 but the war almost stopped the trade. The recovery since 1919 has come about with almost phenomenal rapidity. Irish Free State. — Since exports have been recorded separately from those of Great Britain a pronounced trend in butter exports is not present. The exports for 1924, 1925, and 1926 in millions of pounds were 51, 45, and 56, respectively. BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 169 Latvia. — The Republic of Latvia, another of the former Russian Baltic provinces, has evidenced along with all of the east Baltic areas a distinct recover since the war. The following are the exports of butter: 61 1921 33,000 pounds 1922 1,850,000 1923 6,391,000 1924 8,109,000 1925 15,708,000 1926 22,345,011 Lithuania, — This, the most southerly of the east Baltic provinces of the former Russian Empire, has based high expectations on the potentialities of butter export. The amount of butter shipped in 1926 was 3,858,050 pounds, against 2,054,687 in 1925. 62 New Zealand, — The most rapid growth of the export trade in both butter and cheese during the first quarter of the twentieth century has been experienced by New Zealand. Natural and climatic condi- tions together with low freight rates have combined to make the exports large. A great impetus was given to the entire dairy industry at the close of the war. The peak in exports was reached in 1924, although present indications point to a decided increase during 1927. The comparatively low prices obtained are making for changes from intensive dairying to more extensive sheep raising at the present time (July, 1927). Concentrated milk production has never been large and it is doubtful whether New Zealand will become a serious competitor in this trade. Switzerland. — The mountain republic is both an importer and an exporter of dairy products, butter being steadily imported, while the markets for cheese and concentrated milk are world wide. Butter imports have been fairly steady since the war, being larger than before 1914. Exports of cheese have steadily increased since 1919 but as yet have failed to reach pre-war levels. Switzerland was one of the first countries in the export field for concentrated milk. Although exports increased to 73,940,079 pounds in ]926, they are still below the pre-war level (table 91). Russia. — Before the war Russia was an important exporter of dairy products, and since 1923 the exports of butter have been appear- 6i Keport submitted by John Farr Simmons, American Consul, Riga, Latvia, July 12, 1926, furnished to author by W. G. Jamison, Specialist, Perishable Products, U. S. Dept. Commerce, Oct. 9, 1926. 62 Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), 1927 (27) : p. 492. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. 170 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION ing again in large amounts. Care should be taken in comparing present statistics with those for pre-war periods. Several important dairy areas — namely Esthonia, Latvia, Finland, Lithuania, and a portion of Poland have become independent. It is very probable that if comparable statistics were available the butter exports would be approaching normal. Some indication of the recovery of the export trade can be obtained from table 89 and the following data may also be of interest in this connection. Butter exports for the fiscal year 1925-1926 amounted to 60,026,849 pounds, compared with 53,981,836 pounds in 1924-1925, and 49,530,748 pounds in 1923-1924. 63 Sweden. — In common with the other Baltic areas, Sweden pro- duces considerable amounts of butter. Although production is approxmately the same as before the war, less butter has been ex- ported because of the increased domestic consumption. Exports since 1918 have shown an upward trend along with that in production. The quantity exported in 1925 was approximately 50 per cent of that from 1913-1915. While the per-capita consumption of butter in Sweden was over 70 per cent greater in 1925 than in 1913, it has been declining since the peak year, 1921. OLEOMARGARINE Relation to Butter. — In the analysis of the dairy industry a con- sideration of animal and vegetable oils cannot be ignored. The rapid increase in the production of the latter has presented problems to the dairy and swine industries. Both of the oils have been manu- factured into compounds generally referred to as oleomargarine. The product in its original form was produced as a substitute for butter, but by large sections of the population, especially in Europe, it is also used as a lard substitute. Vegetable oils have been increasing in importance, and in the manufacture of oleomargarine, in the United States, cocoanut oil is now the most largely utilized of all the oils. Considering the long-time trend (since 1887) the production of oleomargarine has been relatively more rapid than has been the growth of population. Taking into consideration a short trend (since 1920) a decline in production will be noted. Considering only the long-time trend there has been a decided increase in the apparent per-capita consumption of oleomargarine (fig. 41, p. 172). 63 Landbrugsraadet. Landbrugsraadets Meddelelser (Agricultural Council's Communications), 1927 (9) : p. 213. Copenhagen, Denmark. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 171 TABLE 93 Production of Oleomargarine in the United States, 1887-1926 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Year ending June 30 Year ending June 30 Year ending June 30 Year ending June 30 1887 (8 mos.) . 21,514 34,326 35,664 32,324 44,392 44,365 67,224 69,622 56,958 50,853 1897 45,531 57,516 83,130 107,045 104,944 126,316 73,286 50,203 52,012 55,435 1907 71,367 74,188 92,283 141,862 121,163 128,601 145,228 144,021 145,810 152,510 1917 233,170 1888 1898 1908 1918 326,529 1889. .. 1899 1909 1919 359,217 1890 . 1900 1910 1920 391,283 1891 1901 1911 1921 281,082 1892 1902 ... 1912 1922 190,950 1893 1903 1913 1923 209,182 1894 1904 1914 1924 239,699 1895 1905 1915 1925 215,402 1896 1906 1916 1926 247,920 Sources of data: Years 1887-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr. Oleomargarine produc- tion and consumption in the United States. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1925: p. 1104. 1926. 1926, compilations by author from monthly data in U. S. Dept. Agr. Crops and Markets. TABLE 94 Monthly Production of Oleomargarine Expressed as Percentages of Total Annual Production, United States, 1916-1926 Year 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 Jan. 6.7 6.6 9.4 11.2 10.0 11.0 8.8 9.1 10.7 8.2 9.3 Feb. 7.3 7.0 10.4 5.8 88 10.0 7.9 8.2 9.9 7.4 8.5 Mar. 8.5 8.0 9.2 8.0 10.2 10.9 8.6 9.2 9.7 Apr. 7.8 8.2 6.7 9.3 8.6 9.1 7.5 8.3 8.8 8.0 8.1 May 7.7 8.7 6.8 8.4 9.7 6.5 7.5 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 June 6.5 5.6 5.3 6.7 4.1 6.7 6.2 6.6 6.5 7.4 July 5.0 5.9 5.8 6.6 6.6 5.1 6.6 5.8 6.6 6.8 Aug. 6.3 7.0 5.2 7.3 7.2 8.0 7.1 7.3 6.9 7.4 Sept. 8.6 9.3 8.3 7 4 8.5 8.1 7.7 8.4 8.3 Oct. 10.6 11.9 12.5 9.6 8.5 8.7 11.0 Nov. 12.1 10.3 9.4 10.1 8.2 8.7 10.4 9.8 7.4 10.4 Dec. 12.8 10.6 10.7 11.0 7.0 8.6 11.5 10.2 8.8 10.3 10.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Sources of data: Computations by author based upon data in following: 1917-1922, U. S. Dept. Agr. Oleomargarine manufactured by months. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1923: 928-929. 1924. 1923, U. S. Dept. Agr. Oleomar- garine manufactured by months, 1923. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1924: p. 892. 1925. 1924-1925, U. S. Dept. Agr. Oleomargarine production by months. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1926: p. 1088. 1927. 1926, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Pro- duction of oleomargarine. Survey of Current Business, 66: p. 81. 1927. 172 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Parallel with the increase in the consumption of oleomargarine in the United States may be observed a similar increase in Europe. Table 97 (p. 174) gives a comparison between the consumption of certain European countries in 1913 and 1924. Price Relationship of Butter and Oleomargarine. — There is a high degree of correlation 64 between the wholesale prices of butter and oleomargarine. It is generally admitted that the price of the latter product is based upon that of the former. Pounds SI /"> 3.0 Z.0 /.o Tr&rnz t /890- /9Z<8 8 .7 pS>>J .6 ~5 A .1 1887 1890 1900 /9/0 /9ZO J9Z7 Fig. 41. — Apparent per-capita consumption of oleomargarine in the United States, 1887-1926. The long-time trend in the apparent per-capita consumption of oleomargarine has been upward. If the short period since 1920 is considered, a considerable drop is in evidence. Data from table 95. The equation for the line of trend is log y = 2.07264 + 0.01772 #, origin 1908. G4 Coefficient of correlation r= 0.843 based upon wholesale prices of 92-score butter, New York, and wholesale prices of oleomargarine, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data for period 1913-1924 was used. In calculating cycles of prices three-year moving averages of both butter and oleomargarine were employed. The relationship would remain intact had Chicago instead of New York prices been used. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 173 TABLE 95 Per-capita Consumption of Oleomargarine in the United States, 1887-1926, Year Ending June 30 (Pounds) 1887 35 .53 .54 .49 .67 .65 .97 .97 .68 0.64 1897 0.57 .73 1.04 1.36 1.30 1.54 81 .54 .53 .51 1907 0.76 .81 .99 1.51 1.26 1.32 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.47 1917.. 2.23 1888 1898 1899.. 1908 1918 3.11 1889 1909 1919... 3 28 1890 1900 1901 1910 1920 3.49 1891 1911 1921 2 58 1892 1902 1912 1922 1.73 1893 1903 1913 1923 1.85 1894 1904 1914 1924 2.11 1895 1905 1915 1925 1.87 1896.. 1906 1916 1926 2 12 Sources of data: 1887-1908. U. S. Dept. Agr. Oleomargarine production and consumption in the United States. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1924: p. 892. 1925. 1909-1926, U. S. Dept. Agr. Oleomargarine production and consumption in the United States. U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook, 1926: p. 1087. 1927. TABLE 96 Total Sales and Per-capita Consumption of Oleomargarine in California, 1919-1926 Year ending June 30 Pounds of oleomargarine sold 2 Population of California January 1 3 Apparent per-capita consumption pounds 4 1919 6,945,467 10,538,639 13,633,522 10,938,234 12,481,326 16,034,620 14,611,538 19,561,087 17,922,107 3,321,193 3,426,861 3,588,606 3,750,351 3,912,096 4,073,841 4,235,586 4,397,331 4,559,076 2.09 1920 3.08 1921 3.80 1922 2.92 1923 3.19 1924 3.94 1925 3.45 1926 4.45 1927 3.93 Source of data: column 2, Bur. of Dairy Control, Calif. Dept. Agr.; column 3, 1920 U. S. Census; 1925, mean of July 1 estimates by Census Bureau for 1925 and 1926 ; other estimates by author based upon 1920 census and estimates for 1925 and 1926; column 4, calculations by the author. 174 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Production of Oleomargarine. — A comparison of tables 15 and 94, together with figure 43, clearly indicates a negative correlation be- tween butter and oleomargarine production. Relatively high butter production and low prices make for relatively low production of oleomargarine and vice versa. Mere inspection of statistics of butter consumption (table 25) would indicate that the period 1917-1921 was below normal, while the money price was high. Figure 41 clearly indicates that during these same years there was an above-normal consumption of oleomargarine. TABLE 97 Apparent Per-capita Consumption of Oleomargarine in Certain Countries of Europe, 1913, 1924 (Pounds) Year United Kingdom Holland Germany Belgium France Denmark Norway Sweden 1913..... 1924 7.76 11.77 4.40 15.69 7.93 12.34 3.32 7.42 0.88 1.54 33.06 45.63 24.03 35.27 9.92 12.27 Sources of data: Imperial Economic Committee. Eeport on marketing and pre- paring for market of foodstuffs produced within the Empire. Fourth report — Dairy produce, pp. 1-147. 7 diag. His Majesty's Stationery Office. London, England. 1926. Consumption of Oleomargarine in California. — Since dealers in oleomargarine must be licensed and a federal tax is levied on the product sold, accurate information on the amount sold can be obtained. Since 1919 there has been a steady increase in the amount of oleo- margarine sold and in the apparent per-capita consumption in Cali- fornia. This increase has been realized through extended advertising. The manufacturers in this state have utilized vegetable oils in the production of oleomargarine and so have not had to overcome the prejudice against a product made from animal oils. Monthly data for this state during the three years 1924-1926 indicate that larger sales for oleomargarine are made during the months of relatively high prices for butter and vice versa. Bul. 437 ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 175 Pier Cent of Tot. raorly Prod. IZ // >o 9 e 7 e s 4- /9,r ^\ y — ^ .--' \ ^ * / /'^s /9Z/ <£~~ o~ v> n\ -& /9Z4- w ~ 00 ~ > -\ fc^— •— \ / \ \ ." . Apr lot/ Acq. Ssp+. Ocrh. Fig. 42. — Monthly production of oleomargarine in the United States expressed as a percentage of the total annual production, 1917, 1921, and 1924. Oleomar- garine is generally produced in large amounts from September to April. If this figure is compared with figures 11 and 43, it will be seen that production is just the opposite that of creamery-butter production. Data from table 94. \ y£ u-hf, w / / 'V — . ^«< \ / > 7\ ^" \ / X i / f \ \ / / \ ' S /' V V ,'" / * o sen arq qr/n b- *>** \ [-"" H -Jo/i.reA Mar. Apr. rloy June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov Doc Jon. Feb Mar. Apr rToy June July Aug. 5opt Oct. Nov. Oec /9Z4 I9ZS Fig. 43. — Monthly production of creamery-butter and oleomargarine in per- centages of total yearly production, 1924-1925. While the amounts of butter and oleomargarine vary from month to month and from year to year, the season for oleomargarine manufacture is generally the reverse of that for butter manu- facture. The largest amounts of oleomargarine are manufactured in the fall and winter months. The peak of butter production, on the other hand, occurs during spring and summer. Data from tables 15 and 94. 176 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TUBERCULOSIS Dairy stock from within the State of California have been found to be better producers than the majority of cattle which are shipped in from outside states. For this reason and also because there would be a saving in time and freight charges, it would seem highly desirable that stock necessary for southern California and other areas be pur- chased from within the state. Until the passage of a tuberculin-test ordinance by Los Angeles County 65 from 75 to 90 per cent of the cows originated in the central and northern sections of the state. 66 Estimates made by the Bureau of Animal Industry and the Cali- fornia State Department of Agriculture indicate that the percentage of tuberculosis in cattle in California is high (fig. 44). Both of the agencies mentioned have been cooperating with livestock owners for several years in tuberculin-testing individual herds of cattle for accreditation. Cooperative work in testing all of the cattle in Modoc and Lassen counties has resulted in materially reducing the extent of the infection. Area work is being carried on in Tehama County at the present time. A number of counties have passed ordinances similar to that of Los Angeles County. The dairyman in the badly infected areas will undoubtedly experience increased difficulties in disposing of his dairy stock. 1 ' One of the handicaps in conducting tuberculosis-eradication work in California is the policy of the state not to provide funds for the payment of indemnity for the cattle condemned and destroyed. In- demnity is being paid in practically all the other states. For instance, in the State of New York there is made available annually by the legislature $3,500,000 to reimburse owners whose cattle are condemned and destroyed on account of tuberculosis. Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin have approximately $1,000,000 per annum for the same purpose, and the other states have amounts less than those enumerated herein." 67 The federal government has contributed to a state in- demnification fund in instances where the states have made appro- priations. Since California has not made such appropriations in the past, such federal money as might have come to California has been used in other states. Congress appropriated the sum of $4,878,000 for indemnification during the fiscal year beginning July 1, 1927. G8 65 Los Angeles County Ordinance No. 1415 (New Series). 1926. so Statement by Col. Ben A. Ehoades to author, Mar. 19, 1927. 67 Quotation from a letter of J. E. Mohler, Chief of Bureau of Animal Indus- try, U. S. Dept. Agr., to author, January 3, 1927. 68 Letter from R. P. Steddom, Acting Chief of Bureau of Animal Industry, to author, August 19, 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 177 3 s B" - & GO C3 " ■ 3 Oh >1 t> » 3 £- — . M "» i> o "^ o o OK} 3 ,_,. 2 <. 5 S Q ^g. S>3 * 5£.o 3 3 2. P ca c 3 c+ fD Hj go oo go z5 fatitbjjg s • i i li - s is ^ Sr n> o S w o m 5 g 178 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION FREIGHT AND EXPRESS RATES In the discussion of the comparative advantages of various areas of the western states for butter and cheese production for California markets, shipping points in this state have a considerable advantage (table 99). In addition to freight charges, the icing charge would necessarily be less than from Rocky Mountain points. Charges from the latter points to Pacific Coast markets are, on the other hand, less than to either middle western or eastern markets. SOURCES OF CURRENT INFORMATION ON THE DAIRY INDUSTRY Dairymen and others interested in following the current de- velopments in the dairy industry will find the following government publications of value: 1. Daily Market Reports of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, issued from the local office at San Francisco, contain wholesale prices of creamery butter on the principal markets of the Pacific Coast, together with selected markets in other sections of the country. Cheese quotations are also given for San Francisco and the Wisconsin primary markets. The cold-storage movement on the coast and in the country at large is reported regularly. Exports and foreign destina- tions of dairy products cleared from San Francisco are reported every two weeks. These reports are distributed free by mail upon request. 2. Weekly Review of the Butter Market at San Francisco, issued by the representative of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics at San Francisco, contains information concerning the trend and tone of the butter market at San Francisco and at other points. The origin of receipts of dairy and poultry products by states at . San Francisco and Los Angeles, together with United States cold-storage holdings are published at regular intervals. These reports are dis- tributed free by mail upon request. 3. A summary of dairy production in California is issued yearly by the Bureau of Dairy Control, California State Department of Agriculture, Sacramento, California. This summary should be obtained by those particularly interested in the industry in this state. The publication usually appears in May or June. Single copies can be obtained from the above address for 25 cents. 4. Crops and Markets, published monthly by the United States Department of Agriculture, contains current statistics covering almost BUL. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 179 all phases of the dairy industry. The information on the dairy industry consists chiefly of data on production, receipts, and storage of dairy products, together with price data. From time to time statistics on the dairy-cattle population in the various states and in the country are given. Craps and Markets may be obtained from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Wash- ington, D. C, at a cost of 60 cents a year. • 5. A concise statistical summary of the production and movement of the more important dairy products is reported monthly in The Agricultural Situation, issued by the Bureau of Agricultural Eco- nomics. A brief summary on the dairy situation in the country is published regularly. The subscription price is 25 cents per year payable in cash or money order to the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C. 6. The United States Department of Agriculture's Yearbook of Agriculture, which is issued annually, contains important summaries of statistics of dairy cattle and dairy products. All phases of the industry are covered in these tables. As with many other crops and products, the figures for the latest year appearing in the yearbook are preliminary and may be revised in the following yearbook. 7. The Domestic Dairy-Markets Situation, published monthly by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, contains articles on the foreign and domestic dairy situation. A summary of the production, storage, and output of butter, cheese, and condensed and evaporated and dry milk is published regularly. This publication may be obtained from the Market News Service, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Room 427, Bieber Bldg., Washington, D. C. Conditions on the cheese markets of the United States are reported weekly in the Review of the American Cheese Markets, published by the Chicago office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 1209 City Hall Square Bldg., Chicago, 111. In addition to numerous articles, a statistical summary of dealers' stocks on hand and receipts at Chicago, New York, Boston, and Philadelphia are reported regularly. 9. The Fluid Milk Market Report for the United States is pub- lished monthly by the Market News Service, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Room 425, Bieber Bldg., Washington, D. C. It contains prices paid to producers for standard milk in the various sections of the country, together with selling prices of dealers to both the whole- sale and the retail trade in important cities of the country. 180 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION 10. The Monthly Condensed and Evaporated Milk Report quotes prices paid by manufacturers to farmers for milk in different sections of the country, together with reports on sales made by manufacturers at distributing points. Statistics on production, stocks on hand, and exports are published regularly, together with news items surround- ing the condensed and evaporated milk industry. This mimeographed report may be obtained from the Market News Service, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Washington, D. C. 11. The Dry Milk Market Report published monthly contains reports of actual sales of dry milk by manufacturers, stocks of the same on hand, and statistics of production and foreign trade. Com- ments on the market situation are made monthly. These reports are distributed free by mail upon request by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Washington, D. C. 12. Monthly export reports, published by the Market News Service of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, contain the quantities and destinations of exports of dairy products, oleomargarine, and eggs. 13. Articles on phases of dairying abroad appear every two weeks in a mimeographed pamphlet issued by the U. S. Department of Commerce, World Dairy and Poultry News. This is part of a series of publications entitled Foodstuffs 'Round the World. Another of this series, Canned and Dried Foods, published weekly, contains articles of timely interest on the concentrated-milk markets abroad. Information on subscription rates can be obtained from the Food- stuffs Division, Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C. APPENDIX OF TABLES a a 33 p-p. SB re o L, a S i— i M R» 3" 3 O Bf ta g. a rt- 1 O c* << P tJ c » si co S 1 CO re •o to as to to CP << to co to M O e n co o CO Date of Act 2 oo ? * t3 re cr •a re to cr o re ►1 OS __ re cr ? a p ^ &ga& 5ct per lb. not less than 25% to OS to o S3 •a re -1 OS .— re cr S-^a re 8|.*§ 8 re " to re re re "* to EL 3? r;re 2 to EL re *> en era o EL 5? re re re •"» in (W re EL 2 tj ro re 3S- ■a re _^ re d re a a » re 3 p. re re •0 re cr re re to re •c re j? o o a p- re i re P- 3. J? 5 s « S.I 1 S - 1 9 — ^ a* cr « 2 to o re re re re W re ■-< tn >— » cr OR r" E5 P? re 1 1 re cr 4 Er o re - g i? ■a o 1 ■a re >— w cr O re P 3 5 s o CO E 3 to o £5 re P. s ^ |3(=2 fro.' 182 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Us o o §§ o o o o o o o o o o o o o o §§ o ooooooooooo • 4) £1 c ■* ^^.^.^l^^^^,^,^,^ § CM NNNN«N«NNN« -TJ3 c3 o * -»— » -4— ^"3 03 J O OOOOOOOcMI-^iOCN© O OOOOOOOOO^HlOOOCM O CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO ^ 73 «- * j> J3 PnpQ >J O OOCO»O^H-<*OOt- o O0 00000)N«OON10 CM J lO ]s o ooooooooooo o ooooooooooo o. o_ o_ o_ o_ o_ o__ o__ o_ o_ o__ o^ . 5 ci s iO CO nnWMMNNNNcNM gs SI J CO COCOCOC005CMC©»0 CM o ~*i -»*<3<-^* »3 » -»- 3« iJ OH*5»IS01t!|S^ CM oo N00COCO1IU5NCCNX U5 N N o h5 ,_,^H^Hr-(CMcMe i 1 QQ S o o £3 A - 13 *s CU 3" 3J3 OO Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 183 TABLE 100 Production of Butterfat in California, by Counties and Sections, 1919-1926 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 North Coast: Del Norte 977 6,996 1,084 7,177 7 887 368 3,751 700 4,341 1,061 6,840 3 833 353 4,814 517 3,908 871 6,955 855 8,039 10 1,203 491 4,824 656 4,500 1,010 7,151 19 1,060 216 4,817 698 4,892 983 7,377 Trinity 24 790 346 4,013 791 3,390 1,096 547 4,904 814 4,745 1,127 256 4,313 767 4,387 17,303 18,315 18,328 19,932 21,069 19,862 19,233 South Coast: 229 1,869 1,410 1,759 2,459 613 807 3,289 2,531 415 2,367 1,417 1,500 3,051 523 729 4,306 2,551 22 2,866 1,770 1,492 3,165 472 564 5,393 2,833 28 2,982 2,263 1,636 4,189 469 630 5,432 3,258 38 2,568 1,899 1,712 3,480 433 656 5,070 3,083 175 2,491 1,654 1,135 3,317 514 833 4,968 3,548 260 2,100 1,536 1,592 3,340 Santa Cruz 388 San Benito 746 5,197 3,046 14,966 16,858 18,577 20,888 18,939 18,635 18,206 Sacramento Valley: Shasta 131 330 1,035 978 437 663 617 234 287 2,434 1,058 1,457 286 115 119 388 810 1,091 764 531 1,006 143 212 2,308 1,085 1,125 214 273 203 332 1,110 845 556 347 641 138 173 2,628 1,465 1,101 498 135 227 530 1,347 956 392 421 671 189 346 3,351 1,283 1,822 526 191 309 402 1,089 1,171 398 614 539 196 387 2,885 1,439 1,692 510 217 390 567 1,461 1,310 412 696 666 190 322 2,088 1,726 1,425 230 206 510 Tehama 426 Glenn 1,551 Butte 1,207 Yuba 452 748 Sutter 615 207 Placer 204 1,887 Yolo 1,689 Solano 1,497 El Dorado 327 169 10,062 10,070 10,173 12,253 11,847 11,689 11,488 San Joaquin Valley: 3.601 54 8,976 60 5,642 4,157 82 9,932 82 5,696 2 4,932 38 9,476 56 6,747 15 6,377 42 10,560 86 7,393 12 6,911 44 11,674 85 8,601 12 6,723 31 9,104 68 9,883 4 7,276 67 9,977 84 Merced 10,256 5 184 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 100 — (Continued) (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 San Joaquin Valley: — Cont. 936 3,405 4,216 3,799 1,298 1,401 3,798 4,740 4,473 796 972 3,197 5,441 5,567 902 1,010 3,701 6,534 6,003 1,306 1,211 4,497 7,014 5,157 1,715 1,524 4,954 7,173 4,318 1,497 1,316 4,948 Fresno Tulare 8,295 Kings 4,730 1,257 31,986 35,157 37,343 43,024 46,922 45,279 48,213 Southern California: Santa Barbara 439 205 6,331 385 512 635 1,104 5,067 614 74 6,680 633 846 1,576 1,558 5,465 563 67 7,091 569 1,191 1,046 1,634 6,342 916 219 7,547 938 1,417 1,713 1,729 6,519 1,020 273 8,109 1,718 2,036 2,400 1,878 6,452 1,377 509 11,878 1,760 1,564 1,293 1,654 6,371 1,403 Ventura 408 12,717 2,319 1,427 1,674 1,732 6,388 14,678 17,448 18,502 20,999 23,886 26,407 28,069 Mountain: 1,112 292 372 213 283 4 920 192 227 109 117 1,340 260 302 161 159 1,590 292 376 176 200 1,575 416 466 170 132 16 1,298 551 594 187 302 19 19 202 1,748 700 674 212 303 15 43 266 251 301 328 326 180 2,541 1,816 2,522 2,962 3,102 3,172 3,877 Total 91,534 99,663 105,446 120,057 125,274 125,043 129,085 Sources of data: 1919-1920, Hoyt, C. F. California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Cir. 3: p. 34. 1921. 1920-1921, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 21: p. 7. 1922. 1921-1922, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 30: p. 8. 1923. 1922-1923, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1922-1923. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 39: p. 7. 1923. 1923-1924, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1923-1924. California State Dept. Agr.,, Special Pub. 50 : p. 6. 1924. 1925, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 62: p. 8. 1926. 1926, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71: p. 11. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 185 TABLE 101 Manufacture of Butter in California, by Counties and Sections, 1919-1926 (Thousand pounds — i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 North Coast: 1,043 6,378 1,088 7,010 1,058 6,543 948 6,196 1,073 6,824 1,156 6,113 1,251 6,515 Trinity 728 390 4,297 623 2,519 964 422 4,068 583 3,505 913 75 5,048 221 1,337 437 106 5,569 316 1,356 483 118 5,524 212 1,374 514 114 5,750 248 1,635 437 112 5,399 Napa 211 1,460 15,978 17,640 15,194 14,928 15,608 15,531 15,384 South Coast: San Francisco 11,319 2,323 29 27 245 254 115 447 3,418 12,055 2,133 33 19 235 220 145 531 4,114 11,885 2,371 18 11 162 178 133 522 3,608 7,768 2,046 21 4 224 192 117 544 4,078 6,704 666 497 924 310 455 323 907 2,555 677 638 898 443 367 300 813 2,842 2,007 San Mateo 217 Santa Cruz 165 San Benito 120 Monterey 372 3,567 6,639 6,978 18,178 19,486 18,888 14,993 13,153 Sacramento Valley: Shasta 116 351 1,001 995 443 760 555 222 236 1,477 956 716 312 110 116 405 963 1,107 853 568 937 141 181 1,269 935 655 245 325 148 129 758 228 323 380 146 149 350 377 324 338 1 37 2 2,169 112 453 38 144 197 135 380 322 400 594 1 37 2 2,917 107 407 38 168 293 360 Tehama Glenn 1,245 310 395 687 1,556 Butte 383 Yuba 411 489 Sutter 7 Sacramento 1,751 119 74 2,133 108 2,892 3 126 2,082 Yolo 105 2,385 El Dorado 3 51 83 8,249 8,703 3,968 4,640 5,704 8,192 7,856 San Joaquin Valley: 2,353 60 6,525 28 4,312 2,954 95] 7,164 29 4,028 1,306 1,229 971 1,116 1,134 Stanislaus 6,374 7,674 10 919 7,865 10 789 6,835 9,272 664 1,099 1,080 186 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 101— (Continued) (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 San Joaquin Valley: — Cont. Mariposa 1,086 3,264 4,685 4,548 1,001 1,198 3,056 5,269 5,125 674 417 4,045 4,961 8,499 683 4,270 2,109 9,385 2,267 6,084 3,248 8,079 634 5,686 2,409 7,508 306 5,743 2,220 7,781 286 Tulare Kings 27,862 29,593 26,949 27,863 27,681 24,959 27,516 Southern California: 402 4 78 16 12 24 431 5,648 526 44 96 219 130 417 1,219 33 33 1,046 5,363 263 25 635 12 1 136 895 5,518 251 20 99 66 33 23 372 6,228 304 910 23 4 1,196 5,056 132 1,291 11 1 1,074 5,076 758 20 111 844 5,008 6,614 7,347 7,537 7,681 8,459 7,484 7,012 Mountain: 1,256 316 312 246 344 5 1,009 193 204 130 145 1,418 230 133 1,480 192 189 19 144 1,396 197 229 13 33 1,449 344 264 1,816 545 357 72 Sierra 85 169 215 Mono Inyo 304 313 319 353 353 215 191 2,784 1,993 2,184 2,378 2,221 2,440 3,197 Total 68,127 72,254 74,010 76,976 78,562 73,600 74,118 Sources of data: 1919-1920, Hoyt, C. F. California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Cir. 3: p. 9. 1921. 1920-1921, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 21: p. 7. 1922. 1921-1922, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 30: p. 8. 1923. 1922-1923, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1922-1923. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 39: p. 8. 1923. 1923-1924, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1923-1924. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 50 : p. 6. 1924. 1925, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 62: p. 9. 1926. 1926, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71: p. 13. 1927. Note. — In 1919-20 and 1920-21 statistics were collected on the "production of butter made from cream produced in the different counties of the state." Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 187 TABLE 102 Production of Cheese in California, by Counties and Sections, 1919-1926 (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 North Coast: Del Norte 400 1,112 597 663 503 813 429 856 38 732 101 793 70 743 Trinity 279 3 594 263 945 189 235 226 597 474 336 594 262 612 628 212 624 878 179 350 971 123 412 581 15 970 539 698 3,597 2,917 3,016 2,918 2,873 2,934 2,385 South Coast: 10 119 73 Alameda 48 308 4 883 193 571 1,146 319 93 409 11 906 219 638 1,417 255 137 63 247 112 371 151 611 San Mateo 106 Santa Clara 2,063 143 44 808 192 634 206 348 849 204 773 127 488 691 18 526 107 703 647 54 584 Santa Cruz 85 San Benito 587 Monterey 441 32 3,471 3,949 3,453 2,441 2,456 2,559 2,448 Sacramento Valley: Shasta 45 30 36 87 20 Tehama 5 Butte 115 71 31 111 14 36 116 120 Yuba Colusa Sutter 109 44 29 Nevada Placer Sacramento 395 61 21 585 117 92 418 33 105 46 32 34 5 29 Yolo 36 Solano 3 El Dorado Amador 849 1,112 597 195 182 54 44 San Joaquin Valley: 842 971 342 391 148 133 217 1,707 885 797 1,398 1,258 1,176 1,079 989 840 1 122 353 81 453 188 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 102 — (Continued) (Thousand pounds— i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1919-20 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 San Joaquin Valley: — Cont. 14 155 200 150 11 5 11 6 5 3 7 Kings 29 3,937 2,858 1,140 1,917 1,762 1,407 1,760 Southern California: 158 Ventura 20 27 2 8 2 25 434 5 224 Orange 22 636 23 157 53 160 56 Imperial 300 248 516 837 497 185 213 300 248 796 Mountain: 56 93 167 139 107 135 13 52 120 6 16 181 2 265 107 3 145 58 477 117 92 12 328 381 185 203 374 206 686 Total 13,018 11,715 8,575 7,888 7,948 7,408 8,119 Sources of data: 1919-1920, Hoyt, C. F. California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Cir. 3: p. 13. 1921. 1920-1921, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 21: p. 8. 1922. 1921-1922, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 30 p. 9. 1923. 1922-1923, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1922-1923. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 39: p. 8. 1923. 1923-1924, Frey, J. J. Statistical re- port of California dairy products, 1923-1924. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 50: p. 8. 1924. 1925, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 32 : p. 10. 1926. 1926, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71: p. 15. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 189 TABLE 103 Production of Ice Cream in California, by Counties and Sections, 1921-192( (Hundred gallons— i.e., 00 omitted) Section and county 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 North Coast: 55 566 52 465 59 Humboldt Trinity 277 431 593 23 147 96 403* 221 31 214 80 596 425 26 178 3 456 162 32 153 Sonoma Napa 954] 308 48 688 474 Marin 25 1,610 1,084 1,518 1,859 2,169 South Coast: San Francisco 7,483 5,458 138 142 1,293 128 42 274 217 12,129 5,902 124 92 716 93 67 286 248 16,802 12,437 198 47 492 410 41 293 293 19,566 12,807 105 352 1,972 388 44 538 467 12,900 Alameda 16,970 San Mateo 167 Contra Costa 502 Santa Clara 2,083 Santa Cruz 503 San Benito 38 Monterey 823 San Luis Obispo 596 15,176 19,658 31,014 36,239 34,583 Sacramento Valley: Shasta 21 85 34 36 137 92 6 578 511 44 251 79 61 564 567 50 298 Tehama 8 Glenn 19 Butte 139 531 43 124 323 62 584 Yuba 438 Colusa 53 Sutter Nevada 66 66 122 114 124 Placer Sacramento 3,970 266 527 3,887 308 366 4,378 315 549 4,387 544 568 4,803 Yolo 5! 8 Solano 366 El Dorado Amador 81 100 109 137 161 5,731 5,306 6,841 7,322 7,452 San Joaquin Valley: San Joaquin 1,908 2,035 2,469 2,277 3,387 972 114 237 1,073 81 248 983 85 302 1,054 105 290 1,181 121 37 190 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 103 — (Continued) (Hundred gallons— i.e., 00 omitted) Section and county 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 San Joaquin Valley: — Cont. Mariposa Madera 4,135 675 162 1,257 5,367 719 149 4,265 5,312 672 91 1,129 6,421 433 89 1,438 5,757 115 Tulare 35 1,640 9,460 13,939 11,043 12,107 12,273 Southern California: 319 62 268 150 25,239 344 1,143 81 2,444 72 394 145 48,888 567 1,145 96 4,759 593 559 145 Los Angeles 33,882 84 868 493 3,451 67 34,882 253 1,405 473 3,991 51 53,953 San Bernardino 971 Orange 1,255 695 San Diego 5,737 673 39,164 41,117 29,741 56,587 63,988 Mountain: Siskiyou 170 360 306 337 434 Lassen 82 195 127 69 37 39 34 253 555 433 445 505 Total 71,393 81,658 90,589 114,559 120,971 The amounts of ice cream manufactured in 1919-1920 and 1921-1922 were estimated at 6,468,745 and 7,572,874 gallons respectively. Sources of data: 1921-1922, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 30: p. 10. 1923. 1922- 1923, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1922-1923. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 39: p. 9. 1923. 1923-1924, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1923-1924. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 50 : p. 9. 1924. 1925, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 62: p. 12. 1926. 1926, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71: p. 17. 1927. Bul. 437] ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 191 TABLE 104 Distribution of Market Milk in California, by Counties and Sections, 1921-1926 (Thousand gallons — i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 North Coast: Del Norte 24 873 11 530 262 1,174 273 826 35 661 37 816 32 666 248 1,435 315 1,339 60 572 60 132 104 860 373 1,162 60 913 Trinity . 25 673 248 1,483 378 1,134 357 103 1,143 456 1,127 3,973 4,612 4,889 3,323 4,184 South Coast: 12,090 8,344 574 1,326 2,373 742 161 266 337 12,532 8,026 486 1,179 2,127 746 362 576 406 14,334 8,870 391 1,121 2,422 671 277 762 480 15,392 11,163 1,119 653 2,818 925 366 909 545 15,762 Alameda 12,568 San Mateo 1,028 Contra Costa 1,055 Santa Clara 3,084 Santa Cruz 618 San Benito 160 807 460 26,213 26,439 29,328 33,889 35,543 Sacramento Valley: Shasta 105 239 217 879 172 335 55 252 293 3,375 286 957 603 266 151 263 159 666 212 197 36 180 398 2,616 463 1,076 415 186 147 263 159 909 260 189 97 179 487 2,469 481 918 415 186 157 333 470 641 391 318 318 125 458 2,973 351 1,013 125 125 198 Tehama 161 Glenn 120 Butte 595 Yuba 324 Colusa 230 Sutter 117 Nevada 125 Placer 476 Sacramento 3,366 Yolo 385 Solano 1,126 El Dorado 125 Amador 126 8,035 7,018 7,160 7,799 7,474 San Joaquin Valley: San Joaquin 1,502 42 604 140 237 1,991 40 620 158 589 3,127 40 716 159 597 1,915 60 771 77 501 1,723 65 Stanislaus 729 75 345 192 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 104— (Continued) (Thousand gallons — i.e., 000 omitted) Section and county 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1925 1926 San Joaquin Valley: — Cont. 38 64 1,759 828 400 916 37 127 1,726 1,081 356 1,109 27 140 1,726 1,134 349 1,336 13 177 2,287 1,091 456 1,524 16 Madera Fresno Tulare 120 2,052 1,411 253 Kern 1,840 6,531 7,834 9,349 8,870 8,629 Southern California: 795 252 19,891 1,036 1,145 548 2,624 310 ' 1,062 560 '24,548 1,440 1,141 1,018 4,029 282 1,067 679 30,227 1,810 1,998 957 2,827 417 1,223 1,113 36,321 1,216 1,260 666 4,287 669 935 1,058 41,019 1,605 1,967 820 3,677 772 26,600 34,079 39,982 46,754 51,855 Mountain: Siskiyou Modoc 483 299 119 156 49 641 350 429 182 87 639 350 370 182 87 175 75 490 60 60 60 60 91 219 70 195 100 20 95 134 134 75 1,201 1,824 1,763 1,071 678 Total 72,552 81,806 92,470 101,706 108,363 The amounts of market milk distributed in 1919-1920 and 1920-1921 were estimated at 59,831,000 and 60,110,000 gallons respectively. Sources of data: 1921-1922, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 30: p. 8. 1923. 1922- 1923, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1922-1923. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 39: p. 7. 1923. 1923-1924, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1923-1924. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 50: p. 7. 1924. 1925, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1925. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 62 : p. 16. 1926. 1926, Frey, J. J. Statistical report of California dairy products, 1926. California State Dept. Agr., Special Pub. 71 : p. 12. 1927.