The Silver The Gold ihtestion Ji'.njiX of 4 4 (California \ THE SILVER QUESTION AND THE GOLD QUESTION. THE SILVER QUESTION AND THE GOLD QUESTION. BY EGBERT BARCLAY, AUTHOR OF "THE DISTURBANCE IN THE STANDARD OF VALUE." FOURTH EDITION. LONDON : EFFINGHAM WILSON & CO., KOYAL EXCHANGE. MANCHESTER: J. E. CORNISH, ST. ANN'S SQUARE. SPRECKELS CONTENTS. PAGE INTRODUCTION 1 CHAP. I. BI-METALLISM GENERAL VIEW OF THE QUESTION 11 II, THE NATURE OF MONEY 42 III. THE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY 52 IV. THE VALUE OF MONEY 68 V. INTERNATIONAL TRADE 75 VI. FOREIGN COMPETITION 85 VII. THE PERVERSE RUPEE" 102 VIII. HISTORICAL ASPECT AND PRESENT POSITION OF THE QUESTION ... 130 APPENDICES. A. FRENCH MONETARY LEGISLATION 145 B. VARIATIONS IN THE PRICE OF SILVER PRIOR TO 1873 .. 147 C. THE LATIN UNION 150 D. THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY CONFERENCE OF 1867.. 153 E. GERMAN MONETARY LEGISLATION 157 F. ACTION OF FRANCE AND THE LATIN UNION IN CONSEQUENCE OF GERMAN LEGISLATION 160 G. THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY CONFERENCE OF 1878.. 162 113604 iv. Contents. PAGE. H. THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY CONFERENCE OF 1881.. 165 I. THE BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY CONFERENCE OF 1892 167 J. LORD HERSCHELL'S COMMITTEE, 1892-3 171 K. EARLY AMERICAN MONETARY LEGISLATION 177 L. AMERICAN "BLAND" ACT 179 M. SHERMAN SILVER ACT, U.S. A 181 N. ENGLISH MONETARY LEGISLATION 186 O. THE BULLION REPORT OF 1810 193 P. MR. ERNEST SEYD'S PREDICTIONS 201 Q. EXTRACT FROM SPEECH OF M. EMILE DE LAVELEYE ... 204 R. EXTRACTS FROM FINAL REPORT OF ROYAL COMMISSION ON GOLD AND SILVER, 1888 206 S. TABLE SHOWING ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER IN TROY OUNCES, ETC. 215 INDEX 217 ~ Of THE. UNIVERSITY INTRODUCTION. nnHE silver question and the gold question as -*- monetary questions cannot be separated. When the disturbance of the old relative value of the two precious metals began to show itself, it was the fall in silver only that at first engaged attention ; but it soon became apparent that while silver had fallen, gold had at the same time become appreciated in its purchasing power, and evidence to this effect has of late years become overwhelming. Is this rise in the value of gold connected with the fall in the value of silver? How much also of the apparent fall in silver is due to the enhanced value of the gold standard in which we measure it ? These are questions not of mere curiosity, but of great practical import, for this disturbance in the relative value of these two monetary metals is interfering with commerce everywhere, and it behoves us to inquire Introduction. into the causes to which this disturbance has been due. Are they simply natural causes which can- not safely be meddled with, or are they, on the other hand, causes under human control the result of legislative action, or of the want of it? A belief in the former of these views, that nothing can be done to remedy the present state of matters, has been at the root of the apathy with which so many have regarded this question. They admitted the evil, but believing that only the stern law of supply and demand was involved, they gave the matter no serious consideration, and regarded the opinions of those who took a different view almost with contempt. I think, however, that a better disposition as regards the investigation of the subject now prevails. In the difficulties with which we are now face to face we have the ful- filment of the predictions of such men as M. Wolwoski and Mr. Ernest Seyd,* and surely when actual experience is corroborating those predictions it is well to examine the arguments on which they were based, and the proposals to remedy the anti- cipated evils which they so earnestly urged. * Appendix P. Introduction. 3 How also are the opinions of those who opposed them standing this same test of experience? I select two who in the early days of the controversy were most prominent and influential in their op- position. In his book on " Money and the Mechanism of Exchange," published in 1875, Professor Stanley Jevons wrote : "Within the last year or two the predictions of M. Wolwoski may seem to have been veri- fied in some degree. The price of standard silver, which was at one time 62d. per ounce, has already fallen as low as 57|d., while the demonetisation of silver in Germany is only partially accomplished. . . . but it is by no means certain that it will fall further than it has already done. That a great rise will really take place in the purchasing power of gold is wholly a matter of speculation. We cannot do more than make random guesses on the subject, and as a mere guess, I should say it is not likely to rise. Gold has since 1851 been falling in value, and the increased demand for gold is not likely to do more than slacken, or, at the most, arrest the progress of depreciation." Introduction. In the preface to a collection of his articles on the silver question, published in the Economist, Mr. Walter Bagehot wrote, in February, 1877, just a few weeks before his death : "I consider that the rise in the price of silver from 47d. last summer to 55Jd. now, shows the preceding great fall from 54f d. last February to be only a momentary accident in a new and weak market, and not the perma- nent effect of lasting causes. ... As yet no one can prove that the permanent value of silver, whether in its relation to gold or to commodities at large, will change so much as to render any alteration necessary." These authorities, as well as the two on the other side whom I have named, have passed into the silent land, and while reverently recalling the words in which they ventured to forecast the issue of the question, we cannot fail to see in the light of the experience which we have since gained, that on the point referred to the two first named were right, and the other two wrong. Wolwoski and Seyd stood at first almost alone in raising the voice of warning against the propaganda in favour Introduction. of gold mono-metallism which resulted from the Monetary Conference of 1867.* We catch a glimpse of the spirit of the former from a few pre- fatory words of M. Emile de Laveleye, in an address read before the French Institute in Paris on 10th May, 1881, in which he says : " If I undertake within these walls to speak of .money, it is to obey the wish of my distinguished and regretted master, Wolwoski, who in his last illness wrote me in a hand already enfeebled ' My strength is forsaking me ; but do you continue to defend our cause, which is the truth.' ' Of Seyd's earnestness his writings testify, and the circum- stances of his end show how much his heart was in the cause he so earnestly advocated. He died in a hotel in Paris in April, 1881, whither he had gone for the purpose of watching the proceedings of the Monetary Conference, which was held that year, and which was then beginning its sittings. Of the two others we must speak in similar terms of respect and reverence. Bagehot's influence on those with whom he came in contact seems to have been unique in the loving sympathy and * Appendix D. 6 Introduction. esteem for his genius which he inspired, and perhaps reverence for his opinions still dominates the journal with which he was identified, and influences its attitude towards this question. Nor was the influence which Jevons exercised less re- markable, as was shown by the thrill of sorrow which was everywhere felt, when on that summer day twelve years ago his body was found in the water near the shore where he had gone to bathe. Though opposing the views which it is the object of these pages to advocate, his writings have done much to establish them, more especially the demonstration he has made as to the smaller variation in the value of money in relation to commodities under a double standard of gold and silver than of gold alone. Time, I believe, with him might have wrought further change, for we must bear in mind that the idea that gold was the only standard which civil- ised nations should have, was, seventeen or eighteen years ago, almost universally entertained. It was a cherished dream of perfection in money which the economists of that time held deari Jevons was one of those who saw all the possibili- Introduction. ties as to universal money which the idea involved; and it is not wonderful that he clung to it. Most of those now known as bi-metallists at one time shared the same views, and I think it is not assum- ing too much to believe that the waiting attitude, as "of travellers lost in a fog waiting till the air becomes clear," which Jevons advocated in one of his latest papers on the subject might, in the fuller light which experience is throwing upon this question, have resulted in his making a further advance towards what Wolwoski, with his clearer perception, so early discerned as "the truth." . What we have to recognise is, that the world's money consists of silver and gold, and that the aggregate volume of both these precious metals, in their monetary uses, is a common possession of the nations on which the standard of value actu- ally rests. It is now seen that silver cannot be displaced without affecting the value of gold, and that individual nations cannot make fundamental changes in their monetary laws without the conse- quences being felt in the monetary exchanges of all the capitals of the world. The remedy proposed by bi-metallists is as de- 8 Introduction. finite and clear as the facts to be recognised, viz., that this common possession of metallic money for standard and exchange purposes should be dealt with in concert by the nations, and that they should agree upon a common ratio at which the two metals should be coined. This would secure a steady equivalence between them such as for- merly practically existed. Concerted action of this nature would not affect the volume of money. The precious metals are in the world now as nature yields them to us, doing their monetary work ; they would be there still in unchanged volume; but instead of conflict and discord be- tween the two valuations, there would be harmony, and a rupee or a silver dollar at their par value would always mean definite amounts in English money. The idea of acting independently of other nations in these matters, by which England has been so long dominated, must be abandoned. She of all nations is most interested in the free flow of inter- national trade, and the removal of all barriers, such as this, which hinder it, should be her first concern/ In revising these pages and adding what has Introduction. 9 been necessary to make them a faithful representa- tion of the controversy at the present day, it has been interesting to note the great advance which Bi-metallic views have made, and the new phases of the question that have been developed. At first we had to accept the fact that the then leaders of the science of political economy were opposed to bi-metallic views : the professors were all against us. But to-day the leading authorities, whose teachings are moulding the thought of England on economic questions at our Universities, and also in America and on the Continent of Europe, are nearly all with us.* It is not, therefore, the opinion of the scientists that we have now to fear, but the non possumus of those who are living under the shadow of the old ideas regarding money, and who will not carefully ex- amine the question because they believe that they have nothing new to learn. The chief stronghold of this opposition is in that vague yet formidable thing known as City opinion, which dominates banking circles and influences the monetary writers of the press of the metropolis, and which even * Appendix Q. 10 Introduction. statesmen who know better, and are favourable to our views, say they cannot go against. City opinion, however, may not prove so unchangeable as many think. Formerly it was strong because it was backed up by the opinions of the older economists whose views then prevailed, but now that old things in this respect are passing away, and all things are becoming new, this source of strength is failing, and like a fortress that has lost the outside supports on which it relied, it may suddenly collapse. The serious position in which the Indian govern- ment at present finds itself in consequence of the action that was taken in closing the Indian mints, is forcing the general monetary question upon the attention of our rulers, and I cannot help thinking that ere long the only true solution of all these difficulties by International Bi-metallism will be accepted. March, 1894. CHAPTER I. BI-MBTA.LLISM. GENERAL VIEW OF THE QUESTION. MANY people suppose that bi-metallism is some- thing new. The name may be new, but what it serves to indicate, viz., the use of gold and silver as money, is nearly as old as the history of man. The advocates of bi-metallism do not propose any- thing of a revolutionary character; on the contrary, their action is conservative, and their aim is to resist what has been leading to, and must ulti- mately end in, a disastrous revolution in the world of money. For seventy years prior to 1874 (and for an indefinite time also before the beginning of that period, though less perfectly) bi-metallism was practically in force for all the purposes of inter- national commerce. Individual nations had differ- ent standards some had gold alone, some silver alone, and others gold and silver; but, owing to the uniform relative value of the two metals, silver and gold throughout the world formed practically one mass of metallic money, and the par of ex- change between a gold country and a silver country, or between either of these and a gold and 12 Bi-metallism. silver or bi-metallic country, was, for all practical purposes, a fixed value ; varying almost as little as if all the nations of the world had been mono- metallic that is, had had one metal only as the standard of value. How this uniformity in the relative value of gold and silver was maintained did not engage the attention of economists. The fact was accepted, and it seemed almost an arrangement of nature which the most violent variations in the relative supplies of the two metals could not disturb. But a day came when the true cause of this uniformity was revealed. The promulgation of a new mone- tary law at Berlin, and the decision of France and the Latin Union* to suspend the coinage of silver, showed the world that this uniformity of the two metals had been dependent on the action of the bi-metallic system of France, backed by the equili- brium which was maintained by the counteracting influence of silver mono-metallic countries such as Germany, as against gold mono-metallic countries such as England. With the French lawf in abey- ance, and the general equilibrium disturbed, the world quickly saw that it was human law acting on, and through, the natural law of supply and demand that had linked the two metals so effectually and so beneficially together. While silver was always sold in London as ' a * Appendix F. f Appendix A. General View of the Question. 13 commodity, the coinage ratio of France (15j to 1 of gold) necessarily ruled the price in London. As long as free mintage was maintained in Paris, nc one would sell silver in London at a less price than would result from sending it to Paris and getting it turned into francs at the legal rate ; nor would anyone buy silver in London at a higher price than would result from sending gold to Paris and getting francs for it. The following table shows the ratio of price between gold and silver from the year 1801 to 1889 ; also the annual production of each metal as far as I have been able to obtain them, with further columns showing the proportion which the supply of gold bore to that of silver, and the total supplies of "both metals. The earlier figures are mainly taken from the report of the Silver Committee of 1876. For recent years, the figures indicating supplies are from the statistics compiled by the United States Mint authorities. I give two columns for silver from 1873, one showing the nominal or coining value on the basis of the American Bland dollars of 16 to 1 of gold, or say 59d. per ounce, and the other the commercial value, based on the average price of silver for each year. 14 Bi-metallism. DATE. RATIO. PRODUCTION MILLIONS. Propor- tion of Gold to Silver Ito Total of Gold and Silver. GOLD. SILVER. Coining Value. Commercial Value. 18011810 15-61 2-6 7-7 . , 2-97 10'3 18111820 18211830 15-51 ) 15-80 } 1-6 3-6 2-25* 5-2 18311840 15-67 t , . . 18411850 15-83 . . . . . . 1849 15-80 5-4 7-8 . , 1-44 13-2 1850 15-83 8-9 7-8 0-88 16-7 1851 15-46 13-5 8-0 0-59 21-5 1852 15-57 36-6 8-1 . , 0-22 44-7 1853 15-33 31-1 8-1 , , 0-26 39-2 1854 15-33 25-5 8-1 . , 0-32 33-6 1855 15-36 27-0 8-1 0-30 35-1 1856 15-33 29-5 8-2 , , 0-28 37-7 1857 15-27 26-7 8-1 0-30 34-8 1858 15-36 24-9 8-1 . . 0-32 33-0 1859 15-21 25-0 8-2 , . 0-33 33-2 1860 15-30 23-9 8-2 0-34 32-1 1861 15-47 22-8 8-5 . . 0-37 31-3 1862 15-36 21-6 9-0 0-42 30-6 1863 15-38 21-4 9-8 . . 0-46 31-2 1864 15-40 22-6 10-3 . . 0-45 32-9 1865 15-33 24-0 10-4 0-43 34-4 1866 15-44 24-2 10-1 . . 0-42 34-3 1867 15-57 22-8 10-8 . . 0-48 33-6 1868 15-60 22-0 10-0 0-45 32-0 1869 15-60 21-2 9-5 0-45 30-7 1870 15'60 21-4 10-3 . . 0-48 31-7 1871 15-59 21-4 12-2 0-57 33-6 1872 15-63 19-9 131 0-66 33-0 1873 15-93 19-2 16-3 16-4 0-85 35-6 1874 16-18 18.1 14-3 14-1 0-78 32-2 1875 16-59 19-5 16-1 15-5 0-79 35-0 1876 17-89 20-7 17-5 15-6 0-75 36-3 1877 17.21 22-8 16-2 15-0 0-66 37-8 1878 17-95 23-8 19-0 16-9 0-71 40-7 1879 18-41 21-8 19-2 16-6 0-76 38-4 1880 18-06 21-3 19-3 17-1 0-80 38-4 1881 18-25 20-6 20-4 17-9 0-87 38-5 1882 18-28 20-4 22-3 19-6 0-96 40-0 1883 18-66 19-0 23-0 19-7 1-04 38-7 1884 18-64 20-3 21-1 18-1 0-89 38-4 1885 19-40 21-6 23-7 19-5 0-90 41-1 1886 20-81 21-2 24-1 18-5 0-87 39-7 1887 21-15 21-0 24-8 18-8 0-89 39-8 1888 21-99 21-9 28-4 20-6 0-94 42-5 - 1889 22-09 24-6 32-4 23-4 0-95 48-0- 1890 19-76 24-0 34-7 28-2 1-17 52-2 1891 20-93 25-0 37-2 28-3 1-13 53-3 1892 23-14 26-1 39-3 26-5 1-01 52-6 1893 See further Table, Appendix S. CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 15 A glance at the ratio column will show how small were the variations up to 1874, and how violent they became after that date. In 1876, the action of the German Government in selling their demonetised silver began to tell with full force, and the price was run down to 46Jd. per ounce in the month of July in that year; by the month of January, 1877, the price had rebounded to 58Jd. In March, 1879, it stood at 49d. ; in May, 1882, at 52d. From that time, with variations, the tendency continued downwards till February, 1890, when 42 Jd. was reached. The movement which carried the Sherman Act in America then began to tell, and when that Act was signed by the President in July, 1890, the price was quoted at 54d. Very sliortly afterwards, however, the price again began to give way, and gradually declined, until, upon the closing of the Indian Mints in June last, it fell to 30d. It rebounded to 31d. and now stands at 28d. Every- one knows that the exchanges of silver countries on England have had to follow these violent fluctua- tions, and the losses and disorganisation of business which have resulted therefrom are also well known. Let us look back for a moment at the causes which led to the action of Germany in demoneti- sing her silver. In the year 1867 a conference was held in Paris with the idea of discussing some system of universal currency by which the coins of all nations might be harmonised. A very laudable CHAP. I. 16 Bi-metallism. object, no doubt. These reformers, however, found that a serious obstacle to the realisation of their schemes existed in the different standards of value which the leading nations had adopted, and from that time there began a propaganda in favour of gold mono-metallism. The English system was regarded as the best, and England's commercial prosperity was supposed to have resulted largely from her monetary system. The idea was that gold should become the standard of all the richer, while silver might remain the standard of the poorer nations. These ideas had made consider- able progress in France when the Franco-German war commenced. Had it gone differently, perhaps France would have parted with her silver as Germany has done ; but we all know the issue of that war and its consequences. France lay at the feet of her conqueror, and with the indemnity money in hand, Germany thought she had the power of gaining a further victory over her rival by getting ahead of her in her monetary system. The currency of the German empire sadly needed reform, but more than this was decided upon. Led away by the views of the panegyrists of gold mono- metallism, she decided to change her standard from silver to gold,* and thus put herself in line with England. The operation of trying to get rid of her silver, and of replacing it with gold, proved * Appendix E. CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 17 a costly and difficult one for Germany, and after continuing her sales of silver for four years, she had to suspend them. A large amount of legal tender silver is still circulating in certain denomi- nations of coins, and as these are on the basis of 15 J to 1 of gold she is, so far, practically in the same position as France. It is quite understood that Germany now doubts the wisdom of the move she made. Will she stop short, or go forward in completing the change ? That question has at different times agitated Germany. Her Govern- ment sees the difficulties on both sides, and it is believed that, in view of these, there is a better disposition on her part towards international agreement as to the best solution of the difficulty. The economist who urged the adoption of gold mono-metallism seemed to think that gold and silver would always continue, as they had done, about the same relative value. They did not foresee the effect of their propaganda on the value of silver. It required, however, only one nation to become a convert to their views, and to carry them out practically, to bring about all the disastrous consequences we have seen, and already the prin- ciple of gold mono-metallism is self-condemned. The world sees that it cannot be extended without entailing untold evil, and all monetary authorities those who rank themselves as the opponents of bi-metallism, as well as those who favour it are c 18 Bi-metallism. now equally opposed to the extension of gold mono- metallism. All equally wish to see silver as well as gold maintained as money. But how is it to be done, if not in the way that bi-metallists advocate ? Their opponents do not say. They only say " England must do nothing in the matter." Such a course is not only selfish, but illogical. If nothing is done, nation after nation must give up silver as its standard, and it is only the magnitude of the danger that makes them pause to see if nothing will be done by the leading nations in the direction of bi-metallism. France still waits, but she cannot wait indefinitely. Her currency laws are founded on bi-metallism, and must ere long be repealed if they cannot be put in force. At present they are simply in abeyance as regards the free coinage of silver. Throughout France, pur- chases to any extent can be made with coined silver on as good terms as with coined gold, but nothing fresh can be coined. Her bi-metallic system, with its free coinage of silver for all comers, had, as we have seen, linked gold and silver together, not for France only, but for the world ; but, like some grand old bridge of solid masonry held together more by the cohesion of its materials than by its structural form, it gave way, after resisting many a strain, under a pressure it was never intended to bear. It can never again be restored on the same lines ; a new bridge must be constructed, resting CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 19 on the broad basis of the general accord of nations. France and the United States would willingly join in such an accord, but the co-operation of one other power is necessary to initiate bi-metallism. That power is England, and whenever she can be induced to lay aside old prejudices, and join in a convention, the whole thing will be accomplished, and gold and silver will be again practically re- garded as one metal for all the purposes of inter- national trade. I have referred to the equilibrium formerly main- tained between silver countries and gold countries, and will now indicate more fully what I mean by this. The gold and silver money existing in the world in- the year 1870 was estimated by Mr. Ernest Seyd to amount to about 1,850 millions sterling, consisting of 700 millions gold, and 650 millions silver. The distribution of this amount was as follows : GOLD. SILVER. Coin & Bullion. Coin & Bullion. Full Value. Full Value. England 130 millions . . millions 15 millions France 260 70 14 ,, Germany &\j\j , j 30 \j 9 , 60 ,, 16 ,, Belgium, Holland, Portugal,Denmark, Sweden, & Switzer- land. w ) ) 40 45 10 The rest of Europe . . 60 30 ,, 25 Total in Europe 520 millions 205 millions 80 millions. CHAP. I. 20 Bi-metallism. United States GOLD. Coin & Bullion. Full value. 30 millions SlLVI Coin & Bullion. Full value. . millions !K. Subsidiary Coinage. Debased value. 5 millions Other States in Ame- rica, the Colonies, and generally dis- tributed | 140 ' 50 10 India, and China, the East . Y 250 40 700 millions 505 millions 145 millions Mr. Seyd divides the countries he*re embraced into four groups, the first three having metallic currencies and the fourth having no metallic cur- rency. The first group consisting of England, Portugal, ) Chili, and Aus- [ Under the gold valuation, tralia ) The second group consisting of France, Belgium, \ Switzerland, Spain, f TT , ,, , , , ., , ,. New Granada, EC- ( IInder the S old and Sllver valuation, uador, and Peru . . ) The third group consisting of Germany, Holland,^ Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Mexico, Y Under the silver valuation. Central America, I India, and China.; The fourth group consisting of Turkey, Brazils, United States, Italy, Greece, Aus- Having an inconvertible paper valuation. tria, and Russia. Mr. Seyd further estimates that under the gold valuation there are in a country 88 per cent. Gold coin, legal tender. 10 2 CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 21 Under the gold and silver valuation 60 per cent. Gold coin ) T -, m * 28 P Silver coin j Legal Tender. l l I,' or**T W l [Token money. Under the silver valuation 75 per cent. Silver coin, legal tender. 13 ,, Gold coin, current, but not legal tender. 10 Silver coin, depreciated \ r r -. ,. 2 ^ Coppercom j Token money. In 1870 there was therefore the hi-metallic group forming a centre, and on either side the gold and silver groups; the former, with its 88 per cent, gold, forming a counterpoise to the latter, with its 75 per cent, silver. Keeping this arrangement in view, one can understand how it was that no undue strain came upon the mints of France and the other States of the Latin Union* which held to the bi-metallic system. Gold and silver alike passed freely through their mints, and, as a rule, there was no undue accumulation of either metal. The gold which they could spare found its way to the gold States, and the silver to the silver States. But when Germany and the smaller States which she influenced retired from the silver group and joined the gold group, this equilibrium was destroyed. Germany had 60 millions in silver to dispose of, and she required 60 millions in gold to take its place. In alarm, as we have seen, and afraid that she might be deprived of her gold as well as inundated with silver, France * Appendix C. CHAP. I. 22 Bi-metallism. closed her mints, and the system which had secured the uniform relative value and free use of silver and gold throughout the world collapsed. Silver, thenceforward, for international purposes, hecame nothing more than a commodity, while gold as- serted itself as the only and supreme standard throughout the world, " el Rey de todos los Reyes," in the empire of money. It is just possible that if France and the other bi-metallic countries had held boldly to their system the danger might have passed, and that the excessive supplies of silver sent from Germany to her mint might have found their way, as they had done formerly, to other countries where they were required. But why should France be exposed to such a risk ? It was right also that the world should recognise the beneficent services she had been rendering, and that other nations, such as England, which had benefited so largely by her action, should see the necessity of also bearing their part in maintaining the proper relation of the two metals as money. The world was staggered by the consequences which ensued upon the closing of the French mint. There was the grossest ignorance prevailing every- where regarding the matter ; and, to intensify the difficulty, the rich results which were reported as being obtained from the working of the new silver mines in Nevada and California, especially from CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 23 the Comstock lode, for a while caused the greatest alarm lest silver might become as cheap and plenti- ful as copper or tin. This, however, proved only a short-lived scare, and the output of new silver actually kept comparatively steady. The theorists who opposed bi-metallism pointed to this increase in the supply, and ascribed the whole disturbance in the price of silver to the natural law of supply and demand. They over- looked or shut their eyes to the fact that equally sudden, and far greater, variations in the supplies of the two metals had frequently occurred during the previous seventy years without disturbing their relative value. The table to which I have already referred also shows this.* In the parallel column 'against each year will be found the relative supply of the two metals, from which it will be seen that while the ratio in price of the two metals kept almost uniform, the proportionate supply had varied from 2.97 of silver to 1 of gold, to '22 of silver to 1 of gold. In the early years of the century there had been a great increase in the relative supply of silver. Again, on the discovery of the gold mines of Cali- fornia and Australia, the supplies of gold sprang from 5 millions in 1849 to 36 millions in 1852, without any corresponding increase in the supply of silver. Yet the price of silver remained the * See page 14. CHAP. I. 24 Bi-metallism. same. These facts effectually dispose of the idea that it was the supplies of silver from Nevada and California that led to its depreciation. Under the breakdown of the old system they intensified the difficulty, but apart from this they might have had no effect. I will now notice briefly a few of the practical effects of the disturbance in the relative value of gold and silver. I have shown that prior to 1874 the two metals were practically one in constituting the metallic money of the world. When econo- mists spoke or wrote of money in connection with international trade, they meant the precious metals silver and gold, not one of these metals only* and the two together in their aggregate volume formed the metallic basis of exchange by which the trade of the world was carried on. Economists justly assert that, while metallic money is a stand- ard of value in relation to other commodities, it is also itself a commodity ; and, as such, is subject to the laws which rule the value of all other com- modities. Scarcity must enhance its value, and abundance must diminish its value. If the quantity is increased, its value in relation to all other com- modities must fall ; if it is reduced, its value in relation to these must increase. Now take, for illustration, the estimated figure of ,1,350 millions, * John Stuart Mill's "Political Economy," Book III.,' chapters 19 and 21. CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 25 or say 1,400 millions, as the value of the metallic money of the world half this amount being gold and the other half silver. Suppose that amount were rapidly diminished, values of commodities everywhere would fall ; suppose it were increased, values would be augmented. If silver were every- where effectually demonetised, this would reduce the metallic money in the world to 700 millions of gold, and, as this 700 millions would have to do the exchange work which is at present done by 1,400 millions of the two metals, its value would be correspondingly increased. One sovereign would have the same purchasing power as two sovereigns now have, prices of commodities would seem to fall to this extent in relation to money, but in reality it would be that money had become en- hanced in value owing to its scarcity. It requires little demonstration to prove that this would be an immense evil. The whole balance of values would everywhere be disturbed. Not to speak of the immediate loss to the holders of silver, every debtor who owed gold would have, practically, to pay double the amount which he owed. National loans, contracted in gold, could not be discharged without the surrender of double the property which these loans, when made, could have bought. In fact, everywhere the debtor would suffer and the creditor gain. Of course, this is putting the thing in an extreme light, but it serves to show how it THE 26 Bi-metallism. must work. With the partial demonetisation of silver and the old equilibrium destroyed, we have already seen a great depreciation in its relative value, accompanied by a great appreciation in the value of gold ; and, as the process of demonetising silver goes on, as go on it must, unless effectually arrested by the adoption of bi-metallism, this divergence must increase, affecting money values and all debts, including our own National Debt, in the manner I have indicated. With regard to the National Debt also it is necessary to remember that the 850 millions, which existed when the legislation of 1816 estab- lishing the gold standard came into force, had all been contracted on a silver or on a bi-metallic basis ; that is, the nation had received from the bondholders money based on silver or on silver and gold, and, in equity, the nation had the right of repaying what it had borrowed on the same basis ; but the law of 1816* stepped in between the bond- holders and the nation, and said that this debt must be recognised as a gold debt. As we have seen, owing to the general action of the bi-metallic system over the world in maintaining the old ratio of value between the two metals, no practical in- justice ensued, though it might have been other- wise. Now, however, if the demonetisation of silver is allowed to go on increasing the weight of * Appendix N. CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 27 all gold obligations, this question may become im- portant, and the British taxpayer feel that he is suffering under an arrangement which, in this phase of it, was morally wrong.* In speaking of money, it is too often regarded only as the medium of exchange. Its functions, as one writer asserts, being merely " to express by a kind of shorthand the relative value of one com- modity as compared with another." This is so far true, but it is far short of all the truth. Besides, the attribution to the precious metals of these functions of exchange gives them, as we have seen, their substantial value as wealth, and it is in this capacity that they become our standard of value. Who doubts that the gold in the vaults of the Bank, and circulating throughout England, con- stitutes so much real wealth ? So with silver money also where it exists. No doubt, anyone who has looked into the matter knows that, in relation to the immense settlements which are made without the intervention of metallic money (say by bills, clearing-houses, &c.), the extent of the transactions in which it is used appears trifling. Nevertheless, metallic money is the basis on which these credit documents rest, and the pivot on which all these settlements turn. We know that the reserves in the Bank of England cannot decline * See for a full reference to this aspect of the question " The Standard of Value," by Mr. Leighton Jordan. (London: David Bogue.) CHAP. I. 28 Bi-metallism. a few millions without affecting commerce every- where. And the contraction from the depreciation of silver must have had its effect in other countries as surely, though not so visibly. There is a mysterious power which the monetary reserves of the world possess, and writers on all sides of the question have shown that the periods when the largest increase of the precious metals took place, were those marked by the greatest advances in commerce. The period succeeding the conquests in South America by Spain, with the large influx of gold and silver into Europe which resulted, witnessed such an advance ; and, after the gold discoveries of California and Australia, we know that a long period of prosperity followed, during which commerce everywhere advanced. No doubt other causes also were at work, but I believe that the increase in the money basis of trade was the most potent. A relatively increasing supply of metallic money is necessary for the growing trade of the world, and the contraction of that supply, in whatever way, must be adverse. The effect of the disturbance in the relative value of silver and gold on Exchange transactions is the most apparent of the evils to which it has given rise, though it may not be so fully under- stood by those who are not trading with foreign' countries. It may be well, therefore, to explain CHAP. I. General Vieiv of the Question. 29 that what is known as par value is the exact equiva- lent of the coins of one country measured in the currency of another ; that is, reducing both to their exact value as metals. If the course of trade requires the money of England to be sent to any foreign country, it will be worth there its par value plus the cost of transmission of specie ; if, on the other hand, the balance of trade is against that country, and specie has to be sent to England, then the money of England will only be worth there its par value minus the cost of transmission. There are other minor causes, such as rates of interest, usance, &c., that affect the rates, but, in the main, the figures which indicate par value plus the cost of transmission of specie, and par value ininus that cost, are the two points which mark the limits of variation beyond which quotations cannot go far. Par value is like the polar centre of the compass over which the needle point of Exchange quotation oscillates, and towards which centre if will always tend to return. In the case of silver countries prior to 1874, say for instance India and England, the par value of the rupee was almost as steady as if both had been gold countries. The sterling value of the rupee varied under the con- ditions as to the balance of trade which I have described, but the variations in the relative prices of gold and silver were so small that there was hardly any perceptible variation from this cause, 30 Bi-metallism. and, in all average adjustments throughout India, 2s. per rupee was the recognised average of the relation of the two currencies. After 1874, however, the matter became very different, and we have seen the exchange value of the rupee following all the violent fluctuations that have taken place in the price of silver up to 26th June last, when the Indian Government closed its mints for the coinage of silver, and entered upon the dubious experiment of attempting to give the rupee an exchange value apart from the price of that metal. Silver, however, still remains the money of India ; and cannot be long independent of its outside value. In China, and all the other Eastern countries where the silver dollar is used, the exchange continues necessarily to follow the value of silver. The inconvenience of this state of matters is evident, and in the presence of such uncertainty the merchant is face to face with a danger that well-nigh appals him. He can calculate and arrange for the ordinary risks of exchange; but, besides this, to gauge the probable prospective price of silver, is both beyond his province as a merchant trading with a particular market, and beyond his power. The Manchester market is fully conscious of this danger, and the market reports concerning cotton goods and yarns give- full prominence to these variations in silver, know- General View of the Question. 31 ing that the operations of buyers for India and other silver countries must be at once affected by any sudden change. Would not the course of commerce with silver-standard countries be much more safe and clear if this danger could be obviated ? But, further, let us see for a moment how the present system works. The London market rules the price of silver. It is sent to London, not to be stored and dealt with as any other commodity, but it is remitted as money, and the shippers wish it permuted at once into sterling. A number of shipments arrive together at a moment when there is no demand, and the supply dams up at once as against a dead wall, until it forces an outlet at a reduced price. A fortnight later there may be no stock in the market, and some petty demand is able to drive up the price again one or two per cent. Meantime all the silver exchanges of the world are affected by these comparatively unim- portant transactions. But why should this in- tolerable evil continue ? Short of the cutting out of silver altogether as money, with all the conse- quences which this would involve, there can be no remedy but in the general adoption of bi-metallism. Bi-metallism once established, the two metals would be virtually one, each being equally con- vertible into money at the fixed ratio, and the sale price of silver would be on the same basis as that of gold ingots is now. Silver would not then find CHAP. I. 32 Bi-metallism. its way into the monetary mass only through the narrow denies of the London market, requiring to go there to have its value determined ; but in many gentle streams it would quietly come in, not to disturb, as at present, but to add, with its allied metal, gold, to the general prosperity of the world. I will now glance at the chief objections urged against bi-metallism. Some persist in regarding the thing as meaning two standards, and, under this view, say it is incompatible with that unity which the idea of a standard implies. They say that the standard of value must be a unit, and, therefore, that gold and silver cannot both be one standard. They cannot see, in regard to these two metals, that a thing may be duplex in its nature and yet one in relation to the purposes for which it is used. For clearness of argument I state the matter thus : 1. " The standard of value must be a unit." 2. Gold by itself can be thus used, and forms a unit. 3. Silver by itself can be thus used, and forms a unit. 4. Gold is an indestructible metal, and the world's stock is the accumulation of ages, not materially affected by the supply from year to year. 5. Silver is an indestructible metal, and the CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 33 world's stock is the accumulation of ages, not materially affected by the supply from year to year. 6. The value of gold mainly results from its being used as money. 7. The value of silver mainly results from its being used as money. 8. Suppose an area where gold was the standard of value, and silver was never seen ; and suppose another area adjoining where silver was the standard of value, and gold was never seen. 9. Suppose that the value or purchasing power of each metal in its respective area was found to be at the ratio of 15 J of silver, in the silver area, to 1 of gold, in the gold area. 10. Suppose now that the barrier between the two areas was removed, and that the gold which had circulated in the one, and the silver which had circulated in the other, were each to have free circulation over the combined area. 11. Before this was done an arrangement would be made that the two metals should pass current, say at the ratio of 15 j to 1 ; in other words be freely coined at this ratio for the use of the whole area, it being immaterial now how the two metals distributed themselves. 12. This would be in accordance with their already existing relative value, and, while being confirmed by law, it would rest on those natural conditions which fit both gold and silver for being 34 Bi-metallism. money, give them value, and mark out the respec- tive ratio of the one to the other, as seen in 4 to 7. 13. We thus arrive at money, dual in its nature, but one in relation to all other commodities, and practically a unit. 14. The combined area which I have supposed is the world. International law would secure all that I have described. It is not a creation of law that would be seen, but the regulative power of law keeping order, and giving harmony to the forces it controlled. I would ask attention to the foregoing illustra- tion, for not only does it meet the supposed diffi- culty as to the unity of the standard, but it also illustrates what bi-metallic law has done in former times, and can as readily do again. The fixing of a ratio is not the fixing of the price of silver any more than it is the fixing of the price of gold, but simply the fixing of the relation of the two metals so that they may do their work in harmony. The two metals form the money of the world, and if we conceive a ratio fixed under the simple conditions I have supposed, it will help to clear away the haze of difficulty on this point which is so apt to dis- courage inquirers. In spite of the prevalence of what I consider false views, and even when the preference of some nations for a single gold standard has been work- ing mischief, the two metals in their aggregate CHAr. I. General View of the Question. 35 have always been practically one as the basis of money. Neither can have an independent value apart from the other ; and it is as vain to think that England can have an independent standard in one metal, unaffected by the value of the other, as that the British Islands could have an independent atmosphere. A thin india-rubber ball filled with air will expand when the air surrounding it becomes rarefied; and it will collapse if the surrounding air becomes compressed. So with our fancied perfect gold standard; its affinity to the general volume of money outside cannot be restrained, and its quality as a measure must be affected by outside influences. -It is often asserted also that, under bi-metallism, the cheap metal would drive out the dear. There is no meaning in this. The fact is that those who make this assertion are living in the past, and using the language of the earlier economists, who, in the infancy of international commerce, neces- sarily only viewed the matter from an insular standpoint. They are thinking of particular bi- metallism, that is, individual nations adopting it, and the undoubted evils to which this would be subject. I am no advocate of any one nation becoming bi-metallic. It is international bi- metallism that is wanted ; though, to secure this, it is not necessary that every State should first CHAP. I. 36 Bi-metallism. sign a convention. As I have said before, two or three of the leading nations could at once bring it into play, and give it all the force of universal law. The advantage would be so manifest, however, that every other nation which coined silver would also quickly fall in with the general arrangement. In the first seventy years of this century, the system that then existed, as we have seen, practically secured the free passage of gold and silver, and universal bi-metallism would effectually do so. If all nations, or only the leading nations, agreed to freely coin silver and gold at a fixed ratio, there would be no undue pressure on either metal. There would be no cheap or dear market for the one as compared with the other; and, therefore, the supposed evils to which I have referred could not arise.* It is urged as a further objection that bi-metal- lism would cause great change, and lead to great confusion in England. This is altogether a mistake. There would be no change evident to the great mass of her people. Instead of all her silver coins being simply token money, as at present, she would have one genuine silver coin say a double-florin or four shilling silver piece, as the French, in their system, have their pure silver five- franc piece. The small silver of England could * Vide page 49. CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 37 remain as at present. The only difference would be that the reserve in the Bank of England would be partly silver and partly gold. There might be ten millions silver and twenty millions gold, fifteen millions silver and fifteen millions gold, or twenty millions silver and ten gold. Whatever the pro- portion, the metallic reserve would be there, just as effective as if all were gold; though I believe the actual distribution of the metals over the world would continue to be much as it is at present. It may be well also to notice an objection that has recently been urged against bi-metallism, or rather, a charge that has been made against Bi- metallists, viz., that they seek to raise the price of silver with the view of raising the price of Indian wheat, and thus protecting the British farmer. In making this charge, our opponents do not see that they practically concede one of the main positions of the bi-metallic argument, viz., that while silver has fallen in Europe, it has retained its old purchasing power in the East, for it is only in virtue of this fact that the Indian grain grower has an advantage, in cheap silver, over the English farmer. If gold were the only real standard everywhere, as the mono-metallic theory implies, then silver money, like inconvertible paper money, would quickly adapt itself in its purchasing power to its altered equivalence to gold money, and there 38 Bi-metallism. could be no permanent advantage favouring the Indian grain-grower. In the early days of the controversy, no charge of Protectionism such as this was ever made, and had bi-metallism been adopted when the evil results of closing the French mints were first seen, the fall in silver would at once have been arrested^ and no advantage to the Indian, or disadvantage to the British, farmer would have resulted. Bi- metallists raised the alarm when they saw the evils that were flowing from the demonetisation of silver in Europe, but their counsels were derided, and they were assured that there would be no per- manent change in the relation of silver to gold that what was happening " was only a momentary accident, and not the permanent effect of lasting causes." Now that silver has fallen, and the evils which they predicted have been realised, they are told that they must do nothing to undo these evils, because, silver having fallen, any improvement in its value must lessen the power of India to com- pete, and thus enable the British farmer to get better prices for his produce. He has, admittedly, suffered from the fall in silver stimulating Indian competition, but nothing must be done to check that fall because it would interfere with Indian competition. Is this a fair argument ? If the ghost of Protection is present in this silver questio'n, why was it not discovered while, all these years, CHAP. I. General View of the Question. 39 through the depression of silver, it was helping and protecting the Indian producer ? Has it not often been a matter of congratulation as regards India that the depreciation of silver was helping her in this way ? It is only when the British farmer seems likely to benefit by the re- appreciation of silver that the phantom is dis- covered, and held forth as a bogey before the eyes of the British consumer. It is admitted on all hands that differences from variations in silver values are in a different category from the ordinary factors that regulate prices. They come in to perplex the producer and the trader, and are due to defective monetary arrange- ments. It is in the high interests of all nations that there should be a reliable standard on which international transactions can be based, and to establish, or rather re-establish, such a basis, is the aim and object of bi-metallism. Silver having fallen since the upsetting of the old arrangements, a just settlement of the question may have the effect of restoring, more or less, what has been lost ; but this is incidental, and it may come about, as is happening to-day, from the individual action of other nations. Sudden advances, however, are only less hurtful to trade than sudden falls, and bi-metallists wish to obviate both. I have thus tried to give, briefly, a general idea CHAP. I. 40 Bi-metallism. of the question. Now it is a silver question affecting exchange; now a gold question affecting values. We see it interfering with the movements of capital. We see it causing a scramble for gold, always and everywhere making itself felt, touching all interests and affecting every class. The remedy proposed is a simple one, and even our opponents do not deny that it would be efficacious if carried out. They can only rail at the proposal. "Who is to draw the treaty?" "What power of persuasion will induce all countries and Govern- ments to accept this gospel ?" I would reply, nations know their true interests, and can combine for a common purpose as loyally as individuals ; and if France, England, America, and Germany were to adopt a common ratio, all the nations of the world would necessarily and gladly accept it ; and I can conceive of no reason, nor any probable circumstance of war or civil commotion, that would lead to its being disturbed. Every year it existed it would become more firmly fixed. It would be a common blessing, equally cherished by all, and any single nation attempting to be hostile supposing that possible could only show its hostility at great cost to itself, without the likeli- hood of doing much harm. There would be no difficulty with the other nations if England con- sented. All the difficulty lies in getting England to take her proper part in the work. The sup- General View of the Question. 41 porters of bi-metallism, however, are rapidly in- creasing, and a more correct appreciation of the whole question is steadily growing. To many, light on the subject often comes suddenly. In looking through a stereoscope, we sometimes at iirst see two confused pictures ; but we continue to look and, gradually, our eyes adjust themselves to the focus when, all at once, not two, but one beauti- ful picture stands out boldly before our eyes. So I trust it may be with many who will read these pages. From regarding bi-metallism as a double and confused standard, they will, I hope, come to see that it brings into their proper bearings the two sides of the picture " money " and unites them in one harmonious whole. -I have not referred directly to the ratio of relative value which should be fixed, contenting myself with asserting the necessity and practica- bility of the principle of bi-metallism. The actual rate would have to be settled by an International Conference, in view of all the interests that would be affected by the adjustment. CHAPTEK II. THE NATUEE OF MONEY. THE object sought by bi-metallists, viz., the promo- tion of stability of values, is generally admitted to be a good one. Why, then, does not bi-metallism commend itself to all interested in commercial enterprise, and to all students of Monetary Science ? I answer, because of the prevalence of false ideas as to the nature of money, and inadequate concep- tions as to its functions. Certain axioms regarding money which have been received as true, and as embodying the whole truth, block the way for many minds to the investigation of the subject. " Money," say our opponents, " whether gold or silver, or any other commodity, is a natural product and subject to fluctuation, in accordance with the law of supply and demand." " Any endeavour to equalise the exchangeable value of two or more commodities, being unscien- tific, must result in loss, be fruitful of injustice, and is therefore to be deprecated." My first object will be to examine these state- ments and see where the errors which they cover lie, and then to indicate the more general scope of the functions of money, which I think are too much overlooked in the discussion of this subject. I CHAP. II. The Nature of Money. 48 begin with the oft-repeated question : " What is Money" ? Without tracing the history of money from its earliest forms as a substitute for barter, it will be sufficient for my purpose to take it up at the point where National Law, formulating and making obligatory what usage had already practi- cally established, intervenes for the regulation of money. And in examining the subject at this point it will be useful to separate, for the purpose of investigation, the nomenclature by which money is known from the thing itself; the name or rather the idea from the substance. The famous question, asked by Sir Robert Peel in discussion, " What is a pound ? " implies a distinction of this kind, for it supposes an abstract idea, and its embodiment in a material substance. The legis- lation of 1816 might have fixed differently what the latter should be. It might have fixed a few grains more or less of gold than it actually did. It might have fixed it to mean the silver pound of the days of Elizabeth, or it might have restored, or rather continued, the bi-metallic pound sterling of the previous century. In every other country, also, we find a unit of money corresponding to that which we have in the pound sterling here. It may be a dollar, a franc, or a mark, and in each case we may also distinguish between the abstract idea which such units implies, and the amount of gold or silver which they at present denote, for these too CHAP. II. 44 The Nature of Money. have been altered just as our pound sterling has been. There is, therefore, the pre-existing abstract idea of the unit in the first place, and in the second the legislative act which determines definitely of what substance, and of how much, that unit shall consist. We see here, therefore, the full action of Law. It singles out gold or silver, or both, to be used as money, and gives them special functions which it confers on no other commodity. In virtue of this selection, the demand for these metals is greatly increased, and as they are only of limited production, their value is increased accordingly. They are natural products, and as such are com- modities. When coined into money, this money as an article of value is also a commodity, subject, like all other commodities, to variation in value, according to the law of Supply and Demand. I can, therefore, accept the first of the two proposi- tions I have quoted as far as it goes, but I must also give full prominence to Monetary Law as an important factor affecting the demand for gold and silver, both as metals and as coined money, and I must further recognise the special functions which these metals as money perform. I am not speaking abstractly of what law can do, or may attempt to do, in the matter of money ; I am referring simply to what law actually does in a country such as our own. It is something more than a mere impressing of a certificate of weight CHAP. II. The Nature of Money. 45 and fineness. The thing thus stamped as coin becomes legal tender, and the measure of all other commodities attributes which other commodities do not possess and the selection of the precious metals for these uses gives them a position which dominates all other commodities. " Money/' as has been said, " is wealth raised to its highest power. He who has it in his hands can buy every- thing. He who has only commodities has first to sell them and obtain money." One service which Lord Sherbrooke rendered in his cynical attack on bi-metallism, was to show the power and the action of law in this matter ; and although he made the quotation for a purpose of his own, he re-quoted the words of Aristotle, so often quoted by bi-metal- lists, " that money is so called because it exists, not by nature, but by law, and it is in our power to change it, and make it useless for this purpose." Besides this distinction there is another equally important, which must be kept in view viz., the indestructible nature of the precious metals. The cost of production, which is so potent an element in determining and equalising the value of other commodities, is slow and imperceptible in its action as affecting these metals. Price, Jevons, and other mono-metallists all admit this to a degree which I think quite inconsistent with the place they assign to the cost of production as affecting money. Cost of production is an element in the value of com- 46 The Nature of Money. modities which acts in inverse ratio to the duration of any given article. In the case of other articles, the stock may be no more than a year's or a couple of years' production ; but the stock of the precious metals is an abiding quantity, and instead of fresh production having to renew the stock, as in the case of other commodities, it simply, after deduct- ing what is consumed in gilding, electro-plating, abrasion of coin, &c., adds from year to year a small percentage to the stock already existing. John Stuart Mill clearly perceived the force of this fact when he said, " From the durability of gold and silver, the total quantity in existence is at all times so great, in proportion to the annual supply, that the effect on value, even with a change in the cost in production is not sudden, a very long time being required to diminish materially the quantity in existence, and even to increase it very greatly being no rapid process."* "While, therefore, regarding metallic money as a commodity, there are thus two most important elements of the question which must be kept in view. First The influence of Monetary Law ; and Second The abiding nature of the precious metals, resulting from the fact that they are practically inde- structible. Any deductive reasoning which ignores these facts cannot be expected to arrive at the * " J. S. Mill's Principles of Political Economy," Book IIL, chapter 7. The Nature of Money. 47 truth. The second proposition, or statement, which I have quoted at the beginning of this chapter, does ignore them, therefore it cannot be true as applied to money. It is true as regards other commodities, but these are not already interfered with by law, nor are they indestructible like silver and gold; and what would be unscientific and impossible in the one case, becomes quite possible and the only truly scientific course in the other. True science is not blind to facts, and it must recognise these facts, and also the further fact, that gold and silver already unitedly constitute the money of the world ; that they are interdependent, and act and react upon each other. Their fitness for money has been recognised in all ages and by all peoples, and has constituted them, whether coined or uncoined, the potential money of the world. But even when we recognise the due position of law in the doctrine of money, we must not exaggerate that position. It simply selects metals already precious, and confers upon them the attributes of money. In doing so, however, and in making them legal tender, it gives them, as we have seen, a position distinct from that of all other commodities, and their natural qualities and durability lend themselves to their being dealt with in this way by law for the pur- poses of money as no other commodity could. If this money of the world formed one metallic mass instead of being comprised of two metals, the 48 The Nature of Money. present difficulty would not, of course, exist. As matters stand, however, we must either put both under the segis of law, on which their use as money depends, or see one of them gradually disappear as money, to the enhancement of the value of the other. Law, which can make one metal legal tender, can also make both silver and gold legal tender at a fixed ratio. It did so in our own country for a hundred and fifty years. It did so in France, with absolutely free coinage of both metals for seventy years, and bi-metallic law is still in force there, and throughout the Latin Union, for all coined money. Let us suppose, therefore, that the object pro- posed by bi-metallists was attained, and that all the leading countries of the world agreed to coin gold and silver at a fixed ratio. What forces could neutralise the effect of this fixation? This supposition assumes that both metals would become money everywhere, and could be equally tendered for any just debt. Where, then, could the in- equality of demand for the one metal rather than the other come from ? Or how could inequality of supply of the one metal or the other have any effect, if both practically lose their identity in the thing called money ? Where would there be room for bullion speculators moving either gold or silver from one country to another for the sake of making CHAP. II. The Nature of Money. 49 a profit in the exchange of the one metal for the other ? Is it not as clear as any demonstration can be, that if one ounce of gold is equal to 15i ounces of silver in one country, which we will call A, and exchangeable at exactly the same propor- tionate value in another country, which we will call B, there can be no inducement in arbitrage differences to cause either the one metal or the other to be moved from A to B, or vice versa ? On the contrary, there would be an absolute barrier in the cost of transit to such operations. The only movement of metallic money from one country to another would be for the legitimate purposes of trade in the adjustment of international balances. The demand would be for money, and money, whether gold or silver, would satisfy that demand. This would not prevent the question, "How will you have it ? " being put, just as it is put every day over a banker's counter, or the convenience of the country, demanding payment, being as fully considered and accommodated as that of the bank's customer. The general convenience and prefer- ences of different nations would, I think, practically result in the distribution of the precious metals over the world continuing to be much the same as it is now. There would probably be no change visible to the general public, either in the general movements of bullion, or in the use of coin as we at present see it, except that all movement of the E 50 The Nature of Money. metals for purely arbitrage purposes would be paralysed. The effect, I think, would be to stereo- type the existing distribution, for I hold that it has been the absence of international agreement, and the force of circumstances through the action of individual nations in self-defence against the monetary legislation of other countries, that has led to the changes we have seen. These causes, and not any preference for the one metal as compared with the other, have led to change of standards. I think that much that has been written and said as to the tendency towards a gold standard being a result of advancing civilisation, is very wide of the mark. Chevalier certainly had no idea, when he recommended a silver standard, that he was advocating something that would be regarded as a mark of retrogression. There are rich and poor in all nations, and the preference of the rich for gold will assert itself independently of standard, even in those nations which, under this view, would be classified as barbarous. Indeed, a universal bi-metallic standard, if there is anything at all in this preference of the rich for gold rather than silver, as affecting the distribution of the two metals, would give fuller scope to its free and legitimate play than any other arrangement. Of course this argument is based upon the sup- position of a general bi-metallic arrangement being fully carried out. Is that possible ? I say most CHAP. II. The Nature of Money. 51 distinctly, Yes, and if the way how were the only difficulty, it would very quickly be solved. If there were a desire on the part of England to see it carried out, and if she sent representatives free to do so, they would not be long in reporting that the way was clear. Unfortunately, the present position of England isexpressed by the words " We sha'n'tmove" and this is the difficulty that has to be overcome. As regards the varying supplies of the two metals having any effect on the fixation, we may also feel perfectly at rest. The demand being for money, the aggregate production of the two metals would go together to form the supply of fresh money. During the regime of the French Bi-me- tallic Law, as already pointed out, the important varfations in relative supply which resulted from the Californian and Australian gold discoveries had practically no effect on the ratio, and if this were the case in the past we may feel assured that under more perfect bi-metallism no probable varia- tion in the future would be likely to tell. The table which I have already given (page 14) shows the separate and aggregate supplies of the two metals. There is no reason to expect greater fluctuation in the future than in the past, and keeping in view what I have said as to the dura- bility of silver and gold, and the proportion that these supplies bear to the existing stock, there is nothing to fear. CHAPTEE III. THE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY. PROFESSOK JEVONS, in his book, entitled " Money and the Mechanism of Exchange," already referred to, indicates the functions of money as follows : 1. A medium of exchange. 2. A common measure of value. 3. A standard of value. 4. A store of value. In discussions regarding money, I think it is all important to keep fully in view these several func- tions which money performs. It is very common to regard money simply as a medium of exchange and common measure of value, and absorbed in this view of it, to say, as Lord Sherbrooke has done, that "however the currency of a country may be appreciated, it will always be able to perform what has been shown to be its leading function, the regulation of prices." Jevons also, forgetting the other functions of money, as he himself has de- scribed them, has said, " So long as sudden changes of supply and demand can be avoided, it is almost a matter of indifference, within certain limits, whether there is much gold or little ; prices haying once settled themselves, it is only a question of CHAP. III. The Functions of Money. 53 carrying a little more gold or a little less in our pockets." Now, if we had to regard money simply as a medium of exchange and common measure of value, all this might be admitted. The value of money might vary without much inconvenience if all transactions were immediate exchanges in which money simply prevented a resort to barter. But, as we know, the whole structure of trade is based on credit and time contracts, and in view of this the medium of exchange, which is also a standard of value, cannot vary without inflicting serious injury either upon debtor or creditor. Stability of value in our money standard, as these writers otherwise clearly show, is an all-important element of money, and it is strange to find Professor Jevons, in ihe very same article* from which I have already quoted, after estimating that bi-metallism, by ap- proximating the value of silver and gold, would be equal to a reduction in the value of money of 6 per cent., saying that " the adoption of the bi-metallic regime would be a coup d'etat affecting the value of all past monetary contracts in a degree incapable of estimation." Look on this picture and look on that ! In the one case the Professor can calmly contemplate the disappearance of silver as money, meaning a difference in the value of money of perhaps 50 per cent., but when it is a question of restoring silver, meaning only a difference of 6 per * Contemporary Review, May, 1881. 54 The Functions of Money. cent., he shrinks back from it as a revolutionary coup d'etat! We do not disguise the fact that the application of the remedy will have its disadvan- tages ; but what of the injury that has been done by the lowering of silver, and would we not be exposed to the same drawbacks if silver without bi-metallic agreement were to rise to the old level ? We saw it rise in 1876-7 from 46|d. to 58d. in six months, and in 1890 it rose from 42 J to 54 in a still shorter period, and we may see variations as violent again if nothing is done internationally. The surgeon's probe may be painful, but it is necessary to the cure. Nor is the fourth function of money, viz., its being a store of value, less important than the others. In theoretic discussion it is too often overlooked, but in practical life there is no func- tion of money that is more fully recognised. What do our bankers mean when they speak of the necessity of keeping up their reserve? Is this metallic reserve a myth ? Is it not real wealth, a store of value which enables them to meet all demands that may be made upon them ? Bi- metallists do not believe, as Lord Sherbrooke in- sinuated, that money and wealth are identical. Wealth may exist in a thousand different forms ; of these money is but one, but it is the most potent, and the simple hind who hoards his two or three gold sovereigns, and knows that they will always CHAP. III. The Functions of Money. 55 be available as wealth wherever he goes, has per- haps a juster conception of this function of money as a store of value than the noble and learned lord who tells us " that there is nothing more certain than that the existence of these two phenomena (money and wealth) is separated by an indefin- able period "(!), language which I must confess puzzles me, unless it be given to supply an illus- tration of his phrase an " empty nothing that it jerks one to kick at it." It might be well here to look for a moment at this cognate question, " What is wealth"? Without going into it fully, we know that utility is a main element of wealth in any article. Now, if we regard money even only as a tool, a go-between, or medium of* exchange, it serves a useful purpose, just as a steamboat or railway does; and as these are things in which wealth resides in virtue of their utility, so also is money. It is altogether fallacious to argue, that because money simply obviates barter it in itself is nothing, and that real wealth only dwells in the articles exchanged through the medium of money. The world doubtless could get on, in a way, without metallic money, just as it did get on, and could still get on, without railways and steam- boats ; but it has found out the convenience and utility of money in the one case, no less than of railways and steamboats in the other. We do not eat money, nor can it of itself clothe us or carry CHAP. III. 56 The Functions of Money. us, but in civilised society it has become a necessity for its uses as a medium of exchange in procuring what we require, and as an available store of value which is easily movable. Besides, it provides a stable basis for the great structure of credit, which commerce has reared a basis as necessary as the foundation of any building, and which must, like the foundation, be adequate in proportion to the size of the structure reared upon it. We see here, therefore, the relation that money bears to wealth in general. That it is a component part of the world's wealth no one can doubt. An excess of gold or silver, however, forced into the currencies of the world, I readily admit, would not mean more wealth to the world, if it were more than these currencies could readily absorb in the growing wants of trade just as the constructing of a new line of railway to run alongside of an exist- ing line, which was amply sufficient to convey all the traffic, would not mean in reality an increase of railway wealth. But railways are not so placed; on the contrary, there is room sufficient in the world for fresh railways, which will prove to be an increase of marketable railway wealth, and which will develop by their creation the general wealth around them. And so with money ; the increase of gold or silver brought to the mints of the world does not necessarily force itself into the active circulating currencies of the world beyond what CHAP. III. The Functions of Money. 57 these can readily absorb. It may pass through the mints, but it is simply, in the first place, to enter the world's great storehouses of value, in bank reserves and private hoards, and it may either remain in these, giving fresh basis to the increased credit it would create, or issue forth into new fields. In either case it would become a creator of fresh wealth in other things as well, and so make for itself -a counterpoise, which would maintain the equilibrium of value between these other things and money itself. This characteristic of money in its relation to general wealth has never been clearly defined, but as to the fact of its having this charac- teristic there can be no doubt. In his essay on the "Battle of the Standards," M. de Laveleye says : "Every atom of precious metal which issues from the mine makes an opening for itself, stimulating along its course fresh activities. The proof of these curious phenomena will be found in the very complete chapter devoted by Tooke and Newmarch, in their ' History of Prices/ to the influence of Australian and Californian gold on social progress. . . . After 1850 M. Michel Chevalier predicted that gold would fall 50 per cent. Newmarch in- sisted that the new gold would find employ- ment, if only in the construction of railways, and would consequently lose none of its value. Newmarch has proved to be right." 58 The Functions of Money. Some people call this vivifying power of money inflation, and shake their heads over it as some- thing to be deplored, but this is mere cant. It is no more inflation than the bounteous harvest, which results from seed thrown into the ground. Money is like seed, which must fructify. No one is content to let money lie idle. If you cannot employ it suitably yourself, you can lend it, and get interest for it from some one who can, and this general confidence that money direct from the mine or otherwise must always command interest is a confirmation of its wealth-creating power, which the facts given by Newmarch attest. It is, I think, in this aspect* of money in its relation to general wealth that the professors who at first opposed bi-metallism went wrong. They had been so impressed with the reasoning of Adam Smith and those who followed him in demonstrat- ing the falseness of the theories regarding money, embodied in the mercantile system which he over- turned, that from regarding money as the only permanent embodiment of wealth they went to the opposite extreme, and in theory robbed it of the attributes of wealth altogether. Smith's illus- tration comparing the relations of money and wealth to a road in the one case and houses at either end in the other, powerful as it was for the purpose for which he used it, means more than Smith intended, if you take it literally as implying The Functions of Money. 59 that roads were not part of a nation's wealth. We know that they are, and we know also that the humble labourer breaking stones by the roadside is a real contributor to the common weal, just as the banker who takes toll on the monetary highway performs a useful part in seeing that the way is properly maintained. Far be it from me to underestimate in the slightest degree the great service which Adam Smith rendered in freeing the world from the false views which prevailed in his days, but the blaze of light which he threw on the intermediary functions of money must not be allowed to hide from our view its other functions, and the practical bearing of these on the great questions of our day, which an altogether new era of international commerce has raised. Money is not simply a " tool " or medium of exchange, but also a standard of value and a store of value, and it is in the two latter aspects chiefly that the question of bi-metallism becomes import- ant ; for we say that this standard of value must be a stable one, and uniform in all trading nations, and that this store of value must be free to move from country to country, as it may be required. In the earlier years of this century, when Lord Liverpool wrote, and when Sir Kobert Peel legis- lated, international commerce was a comparatively insignificant thing, and the idea of international CHAP. III. 60 The Functions of Money. commercial legislation was never thought of. The individuality of each nation was the dominant idea in all law making, and except in the way of " Holy Alliances," for purposes of war, combined action was never taken. The foreign commerce of Eng- land in the period from 1816 to 1820 averaged Imports 20,660,000, Exports 40,310,000, and the foreign commerce of other nations was even more insignificant. We know what the figures of British commerce now amount to, and all nations have shared in this progressive expansion of foreign trade. There are also wheels within wheels intertwining the interests of different countries, one country becoming the paymaster of another, or the pivot on which many others adjust their exchanges, and in all this ramified movement of commodities, and adjusting of interests, money has the chief part to perform. The importance, therefore, of unity in the standard of value, so that this move- ment may be unhindered, becomes all the more apparent. The legislator who, in 1820, scarcely required to look beyond his own country in guiding its commercial interests, and who, even when he did so, never thought of the possibility of co-opera- tive action with other countries, has now a wider field to survey. He has become accustomed to international action in a variety of ways, and never doubts the validity and force of agreements made CHAP. III. The Functions of Money. 61 in this way when once entered into. The great men of the past had not to deal with the question as it presents itself to us now, and I think that Mr. Grenfell was perfectly justified in saying he believed "that if Sir Kobert Peel and Lord Liverpool were living at this moment, and were as keenly alive as they were in their own days to all the events passing around them, they would have come to the conclusion that this question (of standard) must be reconsidered." It was only through the action of the French Bi- metallic Law, practically conferring upon England and the world the advantages of bi-metallism, that the want of general agreement was not felt earlier. When France ceased to do this work, under circum- stances with which all are familiar, the anomaly of present arrangements quickly showed itself, and I cannot but think, that notwithstanding the present apathy of England, her opposition to an agreement will ere long disappear, and be as much a matter of wonder to all, as it now is of regret to those who see the mischief it is working. Commercial England is the centre of a circle whose circumference embraces the globe, and to her of all others this question, involving as it does the free circulation of capital and commodities, is a matter of the first importance. Much of her capital, to be suitably employed, must go abroad, and devoted as she is to the doctrines of Free 62 The Functions of Money. Trade, she would allow nothing to stand in the way of their full development. Linked also to India with her silver standard, England forms with her a vast confederacy united by the strongest political and commercial ties, but with the anomaly of what has been called bi-monometallisni prevail- ing in the Empire, which should be one in its money standard if the highest advantages of im- perial unity are to be attained. "Why limit ourselves to bi-metallism ? " asks Lord Sherbrooke, showing that with all his pro- fessed attempt to understand it, he is utterly ignorant of what it means. Why Bi ? Simply because we are dealing with a Bi. The world's money consists of two metals, and we simply want to regulate existing money, not to create anything new. " The essence of bi-metallism," says Lord Sher- brooke, " is not plurality but inequality." The essence of bi-metallism is neither plurality nor inequality, but unity. The world's commerce, in regard to its monetary power, is at present like a twin screw steamer driven by two engines working separately, swaying from side to side, and losing force from the necessary effect of the helm trying to keep it straight. Lock the two engines together, and all this irregularity and retarding will cease. So with the gold and silver money of the world'; link the two together by the tie of a fixed ratio, CHAP. III. The Functions of Money. 63 and you will have unity of action, and all the advantages which must result therefrom. I sometimes think that it is the very simplicity of the bi-metallic proposal that excites the disdain of so many of our supposed authorities, and leads them to turn away from it, Naaman-like, " in a rage." " Are not the great teachings of the past on which their theories rest better than the modern ideas which are now promulgated?" Eeverence for the great names of the past, however, should never lead us to stand still at the point where their teachings left us. Truth at all times is like a living germ working ever onward and upward in the progressive development of human thought, and the true use for us of the great teachings of the past is not to bring them forward as fossils incrusted in former surroundings, but to take the essence of these teachings in its bearing on the questions which we in our age have to deal with, and to let it have its due effect. Locke, Newton, and Adam Smith, with his fol- lowers, have all differed from each other on many points ; but through their writings truth has been gradually evolved and economic science advanced, which, dealing with the questions of their days, has in our time to grapple with the fresh practical problems that extended commerce and multiplied communications have raised. We are, indeed, forced to adapt ourselves to the 64 The Functions of Money. changes ever occurring around us. No one, for instance, in the earlier years of this century, would have thought of proposing that the true time of each locality as marked by the sun-dial should be interfered with ; but no sooner had railways and telegraphs begun to be developed, than the neces- sity of one uniform standard of time throughout Great Britain became apparent, and Greenwich time forthwith was adopted. Local time did well enough in the days of stage-coaches, but the era of railways required an artificial adjustment of time to be made for the general convenience, which has never since been objected to. The Great Western Railway Company, backing up the opinion of its great engineer, determined to have its own way in the matter of gauge as against what was otherwise being adopted throughout the kingdom. All know what has been the result on the fortunes of that railway. It was compelled in a most complicated and expensive way, to put itself in harmony with the general gauge of the other railways of the kingdom, and its separate broad gauge is now altogether abolished. I think this experience should teach a salutary lesson, as bearing on the present attitude of England towards other nations in their attempts to solve the present difficulty as to the monetary standard. Brunei at first believed that there was no system like his own, and that it must prevail, and even when , The Functions of Money. - actual facts in the general adoption of Stephenson's gauge were against him, he still persevered. " What have we to do with other nations in the matter of standard ? Let us hold to our own system, which suits us so well," say those whose voice still prevails. Apart from the question whether it does so or not, this attitude, besides being a selfish one, is a dangerous one, in view of unexpected develop- ments and changes in commerce, which are always taking place. Our only safety is to keep well in the general running, unembarrassed by any diffi- culties of standard, if we are to maintain our place in the great race of competition with other nations, which is becoming every day more keen. England is generous in the matter of Free Trade, and- anxious to see other nations appreciating the advantages which it brings, and thinks they are selfishly blind in not following her example. But how does she treat them in the matter of monetary standard, which they are so anxious to see settled ? In the one case she is all for the common good ; in the other she is all for herself. The question, how- ever, in all phases, I believe, affects England quite as much as, if not more than any other nation, and I fear we shall see no sustained revival of trade until it is settled. The only hope of dealing with the matter effectively is by international agree- ment. If all hope of this were lost, the other nations must steadily set their faces towards a CHAP. III. 66 The Functions of Money. single gold standard. There could be no alter- native but the gradual elimination of silver as money, with the necessary enhancement of gold, leading to a protracted fall in prices, when stag- nation in trade would become more and more intense. For when prices are continuously falling from the enhancement in the value of money, enterprise becomes impossible from the certainty of loss in every investment, and the best thing for the capitalist is to hold money, as its purchasing power is always increasing. The continuous fall in prices in the early years of the century, which resulted from the enhancement in the value of money, due mainly to the legislation of 1816 to 1819, furnishes a parallel to what we have lately seen, and may further realise if nothing be done. It is also a description of present times to read in the pages of Sismondi, published in 1827, the following : "A cry of distress is raised from all the manufacturing towns of the Old World, and all the fields of the New World re-echo it. Everywhere commerce is struck with the same langour; everywhere it encounters the same impossibility of selling. It is five years at least since the suffering began ; far from being allayed, it seems increasing with time. The distress of the manufacturers is the -most severe, because, unlike agriculturists, their The Functions of Money. 67 entire livelihood depends on exchanges. . . At the same time farmers and landlords com- plain of being ruined. They loudly cry for protective laws, for monopolies; they declare they cannot stand foreign competition."* I would recommend the perusal of this pamphlet. Headers will find in it a clear and philosphical exposition of bi-metallism, and will also learn how much commercial difficulties, and the great decline in prices, which followed the resumption of specie payments in England, were aggravated by the decision to make gold alone the basis of our currency. * "International Bi-metallism, and the Battle of the Stan- dards," by M. Emile de Laveleye. London : P. S. King. CHAPTEE IV. THE VALUE OF MONEY. THE lending of money, and the parting with money in exchange for commodities or property, are very distinct operations, and the value of money for the one purpose in discount rates or interest is no measure of its value for the other. A man lends his money because he does not wish to part with it, and he does not wish to part with it because he finds that its value in relation to commodities is appreciating. The higgling process which deter- mines value goes on between the holders of money on the one hand and the holders of commodities on the other, and in depressed times the advantage is all on the side of the former, tending to their making the best bargain. The potentiality of money thus becomes intensified when prices are falling, and apart from its use as a medium of exchange, the desire to hold it as the most avail- able form of wealth becomes stronger. The holders of it, however, do not wish to let it lie idle, and while retaining their hold upon it are anxious to lend it, so that in the meantime they may gain interest. There is another feature of the case which, from CHAP. IV. The Value of Money. 69 a banker's point of view, also comes into play. The banker can only lend upon ample security, and when values are declining, and wealth where it once existed is slipping away, he finds his area for lending circumscribed, and this, it may be, at a time when deposits are being poured in upon him more freely. Causes adverse to trade may therefore tend to low rates for loans, while at the same time the exchangeable value of money as against com- modities may be appreciating. These remarks may appear to be mere truisms, but it is well to mark fully the distinction between these two senses in which the terms " value of money " are employed, and it may help to a clearer understanding of the subject. Money is not simply a fool, as some economists would have us believe, but a tangible something desired by all, not merely for immediate use, but also to retain for prospective use. What, then, is money ? Is it simply the coin and bullion which make up the currencies of the world ? No, and yes. None of the fiduciary money of the world in bank notes and other credit docu- ments can stand alone. Apart from convertibility, these are simply shadows without substance ; only metallic money can stand by itself as money. Given the condition of convertibility, however, fiduciary money is to the holder of it as real as metallic money. But though by the intervention of credit documents the power of the world's money CHAP. IV. 70 The Value of Money. for exchange purposes may thus be increased a hundredfold, the metallic basis is after all the main determining element in the value of money. This basis is the only real store of value in money, and it is on this that all the holders of fiduciary money believe that they have an ultimate and absolute lien. It bears a mathematical relation to the vast superstructure of fiduciary money resting on it, and to the exchange work it has to do. If this work increases, and there is no corresponding in- crease in the mass of the metallic basis, the value of the basis its purchasing power must increase. If, on the other hand, the mass of metallic money increases in relation to the exchange work, then it falls in value, that is, its purchasing power de- creases. It is to be noted, however, that in both cases a concurrent modifying action comes into operation. In the former, the fall in prices of com- modities from the increased value of money, checks commercial transactions; and in the latter, from the stimulus to trade which advancing prices give, commercial transactions increase. The one process means decaying trade ; the other, prosperous times such as were experienced, with only slight inter- ruptions, during the long spell of expanding com- merce which followed the gold discoveries. The process of adjustment is more rapid in the latter case than in the former, and some maintain that the value of money did not in the period that CHAP. IV. The Value of Money. 71 followed the gold discoveries materially decline owing to the greater amount of exchange work which from the expansion of commerce had to be done.* Prior to 1874 the world's metallic money in silver and gold practically formed one metallic mass. Now, however, the two have become disjoined, and gold is now more fully the supreme standard. When Germany and other nations discarded silver, an increased demand for gold naturally set in, and there has since been a greater scramble for it. A given supply and stock of gold has now to do a larger amount of exchange work for the nations, and can only do so by an alteration of its value, hence the appreciation of gold. . Let us now follow out the effect of this change on the prices of commodities. Take the total money of the world at the figures given in 1870, say 1,400,000,000, 700,000,000 of which was gold and 700,000,000 silver. Let us represent these two amounts by the figures 7 and 7, and let these figures also represent the then purchasing power of each. Owing to the demonetisation of silver, the purchasing power of the world's money in that metal fell, say to 6, while the purchasing power of gold advanced in equal proportion, aay to 8. Our coin, however, remains the same, and we still regard 7 sovereigns as equal to 140s., but * See Annual Commercial Review in Economist, March, 1872. 72 The Value of Money. the purchasing power of these sovereigns is now as 8 to 7, and the power of each shilling is likewise increased, so that 17s. 6d. is equal in purchasing power to 20s. formerly (8:7:: 20s. : 17s. 6d.). Take now 8s. as the value formerly of a given article under the old level ; the price from enhance- ment of the value of gold, under the same propor- tions, will run out at 7s. (8:7:: 8s. : 7s.). While I give these figures for illustration, I would not dogmatise as to the extent of the appreciation of gold. The fact that it has appreciated to an im- portant extent, and that this is due to the causes I have pointed out, are, I think, sufficiently obvious. It is very obvious also that if silver were further or altogether demonetised as a standard, the apprecia- tion of gold would be greatly intensified. Property as well as commodities must, of course, be affected to the extent to which the appreciation of gold has actually taken place, and this is seen everywhere. The decline is intensified, however, as regards property in many localities from local causes, and cannot in these cases be taken as a measure of the appreciation of gold. Everywhere, however, there is a shrinkage in value from this cause, making the weight of charges in ground rents and mortgages much heavier. Mills and machinery have been affected in the same way. A new mill also can be built to-day much cheaper than formerly, and its existence at once depreciates CHAP. IV. The Value of Money. 73 the value of existing mills equally good in quality. This fact of the newest always being cheapest furnishes a lever to promoters in floating new concerns for which, in view of the actual condition of the given trade, there may be no need. Every- where we have evidence, in these and similar things, that the value of money has undergone an important change, and is still becoming appreciated. While money, as identified with gold, and as the international measure of commodities, has thus undoubtedly advanced in value, the question arises whether silver, as the internal measure of value where it alone is the standard, has fallen in rela- tion to general commodities. Has it not, owing to the general decline in prices, practically conserved nearly all its old purchasing power for every purpose except the purchase of gold ? The experience of India, to which I refer further on, points conclusively to this ; and it is now evident that the enhancement of the value of gold rather than the depreciation of silver has mainly resulted, thus far, from what has taken place. The gold-miner, with an ounce of gold can, to-day, command much more of everything, including silver, than he could fifteen years ago. The silver- miner, with an ounce of silver can, to-day, com- mand perhaps about as much of all commodities, except gold, as he did formerly. CHAP. IV. 74 The Value of Money. As long as silver maintains its position as the money of the East, it may be that the process of demonetising silver in Europe and America will always tend more to appreciate gold than to depreciate silver. It is evident, however, that this divergence cannot go on indefinitely, and the present action of India, in trying to give the Eupee an exchange value apart from the value of silver, shows the difficulties which the present situation is creating. If India, however, in common with the other Eastern countries, will not and cannot have gold for its internal circulation, as the best authorities declare, silver must hold its old place there and the present experiment ere long prove abortive, showing afresh that there can be no effective settlement of the difficulties but by International Bi-metallism. CHAPTER V. INTERNATIONAL TRADE. FOREIGN commerce, viewed from the English stand- point, embraces three main classes of transactions the importing of foreign products, the exporting of English manufactures and products, and the lending of English money. Foreign merchants are often both importers and exporters. Formerly they nearly always combined both classes of business, but of late years there has been an increasing tendency to separate the two. To the importer, the matter of exchange variations wears a different aspect from what it does to the exporter. The former, we will say, is a merchant importing tea from China, or cotton from India. In going into any transaction, the rate of exchange enters into his estimate as an element of cost, but he is in a sense indifferent to what the rate may be, as it affects him and all his competitors alike ; and the simple question he has to decide is whether he can buy the produce he has in view, at a price that will run out in sterling either on board or de- livered in England at the figure he has prescribed to him, or fixed for himself, as his limit. The same merchant, however, or another, selling English CHAP. V. 76 International Trade. goods, is in a different position. He sells them in the currency of the foreign country where he is trading, and prices there are regulated by demand and supply, not by the cost price in currency, whether as affected by home cost or by difference of exchange rate, until these have gradually affected the supply. His selling price therefore does not move with the fluctuations of exchange, and when he sells on credit he is exposed to further loss from any fall in exchange which might take place before his sales mature. In consequence of the disturb- ance of exchange with silver countries, when the matter first became acute, instructions were every- where sent to foreign correspondents, " Sell on prompt terms, or, if you must give credit, discount sales and remit proceeds, so as to avoid risks of exchange/' The effect of this, in another view of the matter, was to restrict the facilities of our foreign cus- tomers, and this is one of the many ways in which they were crippled by the withdrawal of English capital from foreign enterprise. In more recent years the whole system of our business with foreign countries has been under- going a change, under the pressure of this exchange difficulty. Merchants now try, as far as they can, to throw the risk upon the native dealers, by selling to them in sterling ; and Exchange banks or other intermediaries are availed of for forward exchange CHAP. V. International Trade. 77 contracts, as an insurance against the risk. But, however the thing may be guarded against, when a sudden drop occurs, a real loss is usually made in some quarter. If the merchant escapes, the native dealer, who cannot safeguard his interests so well as the merchant can, looks aghast when he has to pay for sterling invoices with rupees at a lower sterling value than he had calculated upon ; while perhaps his competing neighbour, by buying in rupees, is free from this loss. The banks also, which must look after their own interests, may at the most critical moment refuse to contract, from inability to make contra contracts, and so leave the merchant in the lurch. Even the produce buyer (the importer from the English standpoint), who has contracted for the sale of his exchange at a less favourable rate for him than he could have secured if he had kept the matter open, cannot feel com- fortable under the knowledge that competitors who have acted differently will have the pull over him in the lower sterling cost of their produce. He is rightly judged to have acted more prudently than they, but the operation of securing by forward con- tract is scarcely less speculative than leaving the matter open, and the risks of importing are no doubt also greatly increased by this exchange diffi- culty, no matter how it may be met. As regards the lenders of money, they simply decline to have anything to do with silver exchange, 78 International Trade. and will only lend in gold, making it impossible for India and other silver countries to borrow to any extent in their own currency. Nor have English banking companies established in silver countries any freedom in lending money. In discharging this function of banking, they must act simply as native bankers, that is, they can only lend money which they hold on loan locally; for English share- holders will not permit their capital to be exposed to the risks of loss which lending it in silver cur- rency would involve. I have referred to these different aspects of this exchange matter for the sake of those not engaged in foreign commerce, so that they may see that there are different standpoints from which even foreign merchants may regard it. They will thus understand how it is that Manchester, which sees the difficulty mainly from the exporter's point of view, is much more alive to it than London, where the importer's view of the matter is perhaps more generally before the commercial mind, where also the money-lending interests feel assured that they can make their own terms in gold, and be indepen- dent of silver currency risks. Some among this last class also may take the selfish, if not immoral view, that it does not matter though debtors may lose from the rise in gold, seeing that they, as creditors, will make a gain from this. Theorists of the old school look complacently 'on CHAP. V. International Trade. 79 these difficulties, assuring us that " international trade (importing and exporting) is simply an ex- change of commodities, and that alterations in the value of money do not permanently affect the com- mercial intercourse of nations." That alterations in the value of money may temporarily affect the commercial intercourse of nations, they inferentially admit. That we have had such changes, the tem- porary effect of which, at least, has been injurious, no one who has watched our Eastern trade of late years will deny. Now, an effect which in its nature should only be temporary, if it occurs frequently, may become practically as bad as if it were perma- nent, and this, I hold, is what has actually been the case. If it were only one change in the value of money that we had to deal with, the above state- "ment could be accepted, for money, in international trade, is simply the measure of commodities, and prices once adjusted to the altered measure, trade would go on without interruption. But if the measure is constantly changing, and fresh inter- ruption to trade ever and anon occurring, the effect must be in the highest degree injurious. The scales, so to speak, are out of order, and the trader has no certainty that just weight will be meted out to him, and this uncertainty is no doubt seriously affecting international trade, and spoiling results which the trader has a fair right to expect. Some mono-metallists make light of the difficulty CHAP. V. 80 International Trade. arising from these exchange variations, and one who has been prominent in his opposition to bi- metallism has committed himself to the following statements regarding the matter. " The benefits of great facility of exchange may themselves be readily exaggerated " Even serious evils may have to be endured, because, relatively, they are unimportant compared with the great objects proposed in a sound currency. Moreover, the question of exchange concerns only the foreign trade of the countries affected; that trade being, at most, a fraction of their whole trade. Whatever injury great fluctuations of exchange may inflict, they can only do so by hindering the development of a part of the whole trade of the country even in this country, perhaps, only a sixth or an eighth part of its whole trade. . "Thus, fluctuations in change are neither so formidable to trade as they are frequently repre- sented, nor are the exchanges so likely to be unsteady, as a rule, without bi-metallism, as its advocates have been in the fashion of maintain- ing."* The mere recital of these statements is, I think, sufficient to condemn them, and I question whether the writer of them would repeat them now. Practical merchants know better than the mere * The case against Bi-metallism : "Essays in Finance,"- by E. Giffen, pp. 294, 295. International Trade. 81 statistician what these violent fluctuations of ex- change have meant ; and few Englishmen will admit that the foreign commerce of their country is of so little importance as the estimate here given of its relative extent would imply. I think we all realise that it is a much more important matter. Suppose Lancashire, for instance, deprived of her foreign commerce, which takes off at least three- fourths of the products of her staple industry, where would her trade be ? and it is not only the direct foreign trade that would be affected, but also our home trade to the extent to which it depends upon the spending of wages and profits derived from foreign trade. Cut off the foreign trade of England, and I believe one-half of the people would require to emigrate, while the remain- ing half would require to redistribute their occupa- tions so as to provide by tillage for the bare necessaries of life and other things which they could not import from abroad. It is indeed sur- prising that such a line of argument should be adopted in trying to minimise the difficulties of exchange with silver countries. We all know that England's foreign trade is of the highest import- ance to the great mass of her people, and not only so, but we also know that her wealth has resulted largely from the fruitful employment of her capital in foreign enterprise. She cannot live within herself, and if she attempts to hoard her capital, CHAP. V. 82 International Trade. or employ it unduly in home enterprise, it will disappear as effectually as if lent to rotten Govern- ments. The revulsion against foreign enterprise which set in some years ago, supplied the capital and gave the power to promoters of manufacturing and mining companies, which resulted in the unwise and undue expansion of so many industries which we see overdone and prostrate to-day. Foreign commerce, like mercy, is " twice blessed." It has blessed England, and it blesses those countries with which England has traded. Her capital has permanently developed their productive powers, and enabled them to pay for English manufactures, and this not .only by public enter- prises, but also, and far more largely, by the individual action of British merchants scattered over the globe. We have established ourselves often where there seemed, at first, nothing to pay for what we could supply ; but, by patient and kindly aid, we have seen industries grow apace which, ere long, gave a rich reward for our prudent outlay. England cannot remain indifferent to the prosperity of her foreign commerce, nor to the removal of the hindrances which, in the difficulties of this monetary question, at present exist, to the free circulation of her capital and its investment in silver countries, such as India, where it is so much needed. It is usual for those who oppose bi-metallism to International Trade. 83 argue against the ratio of 15J to 1. But the principle of bi-metallism is the fixing of a ratio. Bi-metallists would be perfectly content to leave what that ratio should be to a conference, in which all interests affected by the matter were duly represented. The purely silver interests are little compared with the far mightier interests of inter- national trade which the question involves. When we think of it, indeed, is it not an anomaly that these comparatively petty movements of silver, indicating little or no change in supply, should tell so disastrously upon commerce and the welfare of nations everywhere ? I make bold to say that whenever England wakes up to the importance of the subject, and shows a real desire for an inter- national agreement, all difficulty as to what the ratio should be will disappear. The prospect of England taking a due part in the arrangement would immediately affect the price of silver, and make it tend towards the rate which investigation would prove to be the just one ; and, I believe, that even before the necessary laws could be passed, bi-metallism on the accepted basis would practi- cally be in force. Manchester industries perhaps, at first, suffered more than any others by these disturbances; but now, all the industries are feeling them. Bankers looked on complacently, under the belief that they were able to keep themselves right whatever hap- CHAP. V. 84 International Trade. pened, though they, also, are beginning to realise that there is danger for them too. Merchants tried, as far as they could, to secure themselves by their contracts. But manufacturers and producers, from the necessity they are under to keep their works going, have had less freedom ; and when mer- chants, from a sudden drop in exchange, cannot continue to pay old rates, they have to accept lower prices, whether they can afford to do so or not. All are, however, really in the same boat ; and the anxieties of the banker, as well as those of the merchant and manufacturer, would be greatly lessened were these difficulties to disappear. CHAPTEE VI. FOREIGN COMPETITION. FOREIGN competition is often referred to in connec- tion with the depression of the cotton trade. Some people are impressed with its importance, while others are inclined to make light of it, point- ing to the gigantic strides which have been made in our cotton industries during the last thirty years, and asking " What reason have we to fear? May we not expect that our present difficulties will ere long pass away, as those of previous periods of depression have done ? " It is matter for hopefulness that the energy and enterprise of those engaged in the cotton trade have fully kept pace with all the improvements in cotton manufacturing which recent years have witnessed, and that our mills, in effective, and economical out-turn, both of goods and yarns, are second to none in the world, and in the struggle with competing nations there should be no reason to fear. There is no doubt, however, that we have recently seen a check to the expansion of our trade, and, though a comparison of thirty years shows an immense advance, recent years show greatly diminished progress in our foreign trade. CHAP. VI. 86 Foreign Competition. It is the contrast between these years, and the rapid progress in the long series of years preceding, that demands attention. Whatever the cause or causes, we must all admit that trade everywhere has lost much of the elasticity of former times. Continental nations have suffered from this as much as, if not more than, England has done; and, mainly to protect themselves against the competition of England, they have, one by one, imposed restrictive tariffs. Whether or not they will benefit much by this course of pro- cedure remains to be seen, for the higher level of prices in those countries which must necessarily result will disable them more and more from competing with us in neutral markets, for any nation, to have the fullest power in competing as a seller, must have the fullest freedom in buying. As regards Continental nations, therefore, in relation to the staple industry of the Manchester district, there is not much to fear. We shall still, in spite of tariffs, do an important amount of business with them, and, perhaps, regain more than we lose in other quarters where we compete with them. The necessities, also, of their own export trades will drive some of them ere long to modify their tariffs. As regards the United States of America, there was a time, well within the memory of the present generation, when the trade in cotton staples with CHAP. VI. Foreign Competition. 87 that country was a thing of great importance. All this, however, has for some time been a matter of the past ; and, whilst some in this country may be hoping for the advance of Free Trade doctrines in America, I fear that neither the actual course of opinion there, nor the policy and plans of her statesmen, really warrant any great advance in this direction. The Great Kepublic is a world within herself, and until the distant time when the crowding of population upon her territories will lead her to care more for foreign trade, there is, I fear, little hope of any complete modifications being made in her present policy. My chief reason for referring to the United States, how- ever, is to note the influence which her example ^may have upon our own colonies such as Canada and Australia- where the same desire of promoting local industries by protective duties is already in full play. No doubt, as in Canada, this policy has led (as it must always do periodically) to glut and over-production. Such has often been the case in the United States ; but, though these periodic crises occur, the mills, once erected, remain. Times change, trade again improves, and on they go again in a new period of expansion, displacing foreign goods more and more. As regards our own colonies, therefore, whatever our views may be as to the wisdom or unwisdom of the economic theories by which they are guided, as a matter of fact with 88 Foreign Competition. our older colonies, such as Canada, we must be prepared to lose more and more of our trade with them. We come now to the great Eastern markets, which take off such a large proportion of the pro- duction of our Lancashire mills. These markets, as also a portion of those in South America, have all a currency based on silver. Before examining the exact relation which this fact has to the matter under consideration, I would first glance at the position which our great dependency, India, is beginning to occupy as a producer of cotton goods. Hitherto our trade with her has been one of con- tinued progress, and her resources as a country in which all kinds of tropical produce can, with the aid of her teeming population, be almost indefinitely expanded, marks her out as a field where our trade, in supplying manufactured cotton goods in return for her produce, may be equally expanded. With all the great yardage of cotton goods which we already supply, a division of the same by the figures denoting the millions of her population will show what a large margin there is still to be supplied before, according to the most moderate estimate, what is needful for adequate human clothing can be overtaken. There is, therefore, in India, I think, still wide room for a larger con- sumption of cotton manufactures ; and, in spite of what the cotton mills in Bombay are doing, or may CHAP. VI. Foreign Competition. 89 yet do, unless they continue to be stimulated in a way which I will presently point out, there is every reason to believe that the prosperity of India will continue to be, as it has been, a great factor in determining the prosperity of Lancashire. As regards these Bombay mills, it should perhaps be borne in mind that India was the birthplace of the cotton manufactures, and that for ages the spinning and weaving of cotton have formed a part of the industry of her population, and that against foreign competition, in rough and heavy goods, native pro- duction has always held a place. It was natural, therefore, that the power loom should follow in the wake of the hand loom, and in this department there is a fair field for the increase of cotton mills, which might not for many years materially inter- fere with our trade. The import duty on cotton goods from England, which was abolished some years ago, no doubt acted as a stimulus to the increase of these mills, but I think a stronger element has been, and is still, at work in giving to them what amounts practically to Protection, both as regards the supply for India herself, and in con- ferring special advantages in competing with England for the supply of adjacent countries. I refer to the special position in this respect which the unsatisfactory state of the silver question has produced. India, China, Japan, and other Eastern countries CHAP. VI. 90 Foreign Competition. have a silver standard, the variations of which, in relation to our own gold standard, have in recent years been very violent. While the value of silver, however, has fallen, and the rupee, in its exchange value with England, has also fallen, the currency of India for internal purposes has not materially changed, it being generally asserted by those acquainted with India that the rupee, as regards the necessaries of life, has not yet lost much of its old buying power ; and the Government of India, we know, still clings to the old average rate of 2s. per rupee as a basis for the adjustment of its accounts. Such being the case, looking at the matter from the Indian standpoint, the fall in silver affected only the external value of the rupee, leading to the increased cost in rupees of all im- ported articles. To illustrate what would take place when the fall first began, and what is fre- quently happening, let us take, for example, an article which cost 100 rupees on the old basis, and suppose that a dealer in India has the option of importing the article from England or of buying it from a Bombay mill. While he is debating where he should purchase, a sudden fall in silver takes place, say of 3 per cent. This would make it impossible for him to bring the article from Eng- land without a payment of 103 rupees., while for the payment of 100 rupees he could still buy it from the Bombay mill. Take now the further Foreign Competition. 91 example of a dealer in Japan who is in the habit of importing yarn from India or from England, as the price in silver dollars laid down in Japan may suit him best. For 100 dollars he can com- mand a certain quantity of yarn from either place, but a fall of say 3 per cent, in exchange intervenes, and, while the cost in silver from India remains unchanged, he must now pay 103 dollars if he brings the yarn from England. There is no doubt, under these circumstances, to which country the order would go. The fact, therefore, of Japan and India both being silver countries, practically gives India an advantage in dealing with the former similar to what would result from a differential duty being in force in Japan in favour of India as against England ; for in Japan and China the buying power of the silver dollar, like the rupee in India, has remained unchanged for internal pur- poses ; while for importing from England it has lost about 25 per cent, of its old purchasing power, the rupee having lost in this respect to a similar extent. I by no means say that all this remains in favour of the Bombay mill owner, but a consider- able part of it does; and when sudden changes take place, such as I have indicated, the immediate effect upon existing stock is nearly altogether to the extent of such change in his favour. As regards cotton, we know that the competition of Europe will raise its price in rupees in proportion CHAP. VI. 92 Foreign Competition. to any fall in exchange, and the machinery, which has to be imported for new mills, will also be enhanced in its rupee value, but wages and other elements of production will remain unchanged, and when the levelling up, as regards cotton and other imported articles which the millowner re- quires, is completed, there still remains a consider- able difference in his favour owing to the fall in silver from its old value. Besides this, also, the comparative steadiness of his price, both as a seller in India and an exporter to China or Japan, gives him a great advantage as against his English competitor, who is continually hampered by the fear of sudden fluctuations in exchange not the simple fluctuations which are common between all trading nations from the swaying tendency of the balance of trade, but from the varying relations of the metals upon which the exchange is based. Between India and China the basis is upon one common metal silver. Between England and India or China the par of exchange itself is vari- able, from the varying relation of silver, the standard of India and China, to gold, the standard of England. Some people, looking at these matters theoreti- cally, and regarding foreign trade as simply an exchange of commodities, are apt to sink the individual who must depend on money as the medium of his business, but in practical operations Foreign Competition. 93 the individual cannot sink himself. It is no con- solation to the Lancashire manufacturer, upon whom falls the necessity of accepting 3 per cent, less for his shirtings, in consequence of a drop in exchange, to be told that the cost of tea imported to this country will be 3 per cent, cheaper, or that the importer of indigo, or any other class of Indian produce, will get the benefit of what he is losing. Money is the measure of his commodities, and the article in which he gets his returns, and it is purely a loss from the international scales being out of order, and not a necessary condition of business, from which he suffers. What is the meaning of the cry that we now so frequently hear from India, " The Indian Govern- ment must buy all its stores as far as possible in India ! " The object is to avoid loss in exchange ; and if there is a saving to India from buying in India, and if there is a desire on the part of the Indian officials to give the preference to articles manufactured there, what is this but Protection, brought about by the necessity of avoiding loss from the ever-increasing difficulties of this silver question ? I think this fact alone is conclusive, and com- pletely proves the statement I have made; but I can also appeal to official figures, the inference to be drawn from which cannot be mistaken. There is little direct data obtainable showing the dis- 94 Foreign Competition. placement of British manufactures in India itself by the Bombay mills. As negative evidence, how- ever, the almost stationary figures of the imports from England, as shown in the Indian statistics, which give fuller details than our own Board of Trade Eeturns, are very suggestive. For the last thirteen years, the quantities imported from the United Kingdom were as shown on the opposite page. THE DECLARED VALUES OF THESE IMPORTS WERE AS FOLLOWS, SHOWING IN THIS RESPECT A HEAVY DECLINE : GOODS. Rupees. 000 omitted. YARNS. Rupees. 000 omitted Average Exchange for year. STERLING VALUES. GOODS. YARNS. 1880-81 22,09,34 3,62,09 1/7.96 18,374,356 3,011,413 1881-82 20,22,36 3,15,02 1/7.90 16,768,785 2,612,045 1882-83 20,74,92 3,30,86 1/7.53 16,884,717 2,692,410 1883-84 20,95,63 3,38,76 1/7.54 17,061,988 2,758,084 1884-85 20,48,40 3,27,23 1/7.31 16,481,154 2,632,851 1885-86 20,a7,90 3,11,41 1/6.25 15,496,565 2,368,034 1886-87 25,10,02 3,25,19 1/5.44 18,239,545 2,363,079 1887-88 22,96,06 3,51,67 1/4.90 16,168,101 2,476,364 1888-89 26,79,92 3,68,85 1/4.38 18,290,476 2,517,406 1889-90 25,44,78 3,41,78 1/4.57 17,569,634 2,359,756 1890-91 26,26,07 3,68,12 1/6.09 19,794,060 2,774,736 1891-92 24,10,73 3,43,20 ' 1/4.74 16,814,854 2,393,876 1892-93 21,84,81 2,60,64 1/3 13,655,077 1,629,051 CHAP. VI. Foreign Competition. 95 il 111 2 o CO CO O 2 $ -3 5 1 g ,0 2 6 96 Foreign Competition. As regards the increase of exports from India, the following figures speak for themselves : EXPORTS OF YARNS FROM INDIA TO CHINA, JAPAN, &c. (From Indian Trade and Navigation Returns.) YEAR. QUANTITY. Ibs. VALUE. Rupees. 000 omitted. Average Exchange for year. STERLING VALUE. s. d. 1876-77 7,926,710 36,73 1/8.51 313,891 1877-78 15,600,201 68,20 1/8.79 590,833 1878-79 21,333,508 88,64 1/7.79 730,972 1879-80 25,862,474 ,10,92 1/7.96 922,512 1880-81 26,901,346 ,28,25 1/7.96 1,066,675 1881-82 30,786,304 ,36,88 1/7.90 1,134,993 1882-83 45,223,000 ,81,68 1/7.53 1,478,435 1883-84 49,876,606 ,92,61 1/7.54 1,568,216 1884-85 65,897,183 2,44,11 1/7.31 1,964,068 1885-86 78,241,721 2,75,52 1/6.25 2,095,139 1886-87 91,803,444 3,33,68 1/5.44 2,424,766 1887-88 113,451,375 4,07,73 1/4.90 2,871,158 1888-89 128,906,764 5,20,70 1/4.38 3,553,845 1889-90 141,962,242 5,74,92 1/4.57 3,969,382 1890-91 169,275,304 6,54,33 1/6.09 4,932,060 1891-92 161,253,234 5,77,10 1/4.74 4,025,295 1892-93 189,174,726 6,77,34 1/3 4,233,392 EXPORTS OF PIECE GOODS FROM INDIA TO CHINA, JAPAN, &c. YEAR. YARDS. VALUE. Rupees. 000 omitted. Average Exchange for year. STERLING VALUB. S. d. 1876-77 15,544,168 37,36 1/8.51 319,165 1877-78 17,545,464 37,23 1/8.79 322,508 1878-79 22,661,231 42,01 1/7.79 346,448 1879-80 25,800,501 44,43 1/7.96 369,516 1880-81 30,424,032 54,07 1/7.96 449,691 1881-82 29,911,017 55,64 1/7.90 461,355 1882-83 41,563,000 68,63 1/7.53 558,206 1883-84 55,613,763 86,19 1/7.54 701,758 1884-85 47,968,017 81,86 1/7.31 658,685 1885-86 51,577,727 81,34 1/6.25 618,589 1886-87 53,416,097 88,21 1/5.44 641,008 1887-88 69,485,747 1,06,74 1/4.90 751,656 1888-89 70,265,379 1,08,48 1/4.38 740,384 ' 1889-90 59,496,551 90,45 1/4.57 624,529 1890-91 67,665,939 1,04,20 1/6.09 785,448 1891-92 73,383,941 1,13,42 1/4.74 791,110 1892-93 79,791,494 1,22,58 1/3 766,175 CHAP. VI. Foreign Competition. 97 It will be noticed that this increase has been developed during the period of the silver difficulty, 1876 having been the year when it began to tell with full force upon exchange rates. When we talk of developing the resources of India as tending to increase our trade relations with that country, it is, of course, agricultural de- velopment that is mainly thought of ; but with this element favouring the native manufacture of articles she is now getting from England, is there not danger that the development may also take a form very different from what we are thinking of? Anyone who has looked over the Indian census list of occupations must have been struck with the vast number of artisans, workers in every department of human industry, which that list gives. There the workers are to be found in millions. On the other hand, of what is the soil of India not capable ? Hitherto it has only produced short staple cotton, and even this, we know, has been gradually im- proving ; but will it stop there ? Is it not probable that ere long the finer and longer grades of cotton will also be produced ? And then we must look for further advance in the competition of her mills with ours. The initiating of the native population into factory work has, no doubt, been difficult, but already a large nucleus has been formed, and is rapidly growing. Private capital also, which can- not be got to aid agriculture or for public works, H CHAP. VI. 98 Foreign Competition. comes forth readily for these mills, so that there are all the elements for a wide and rapid develop- ment of a trade wh'ich must compete keenly with Manchester, and, if we allow the special advantage which I have been pointing out to continue, it must go on developing. So far as we have seen, it is chiefly in coarse goods and yarns that she has become our competitor, and in these her natural advantages and position must in any case favour her. But why, to our own disadvantage, should we allow a state of matters to continue which is giving her practically all the advantages of Protec- tion within her own borders, and conferring a pre- ferential position, as against us, in competing for the trade of adjacent countries ? I am not unmindful that this depreciation of the currency for outside purposes, whilst retaining its old internal value, stimulates agriculture as well as manufactures. In recent years we have seen that grain has been exported much more freely from India in consequence of the low exchange rates at which it can be shipped. No doubt there is a real and immediate advantage in this to the grain grower, and India may gain from the false basis thus created; but would she not gain something that would be of far more permanent value, even to the grain grower, if English capital could be freely employed in developing the resources of India, and in improving facilities for communica- Foreign Competition. 99 tion in roads and railways, which are so much needed ? Besides, we do not wish to see the Indian agriculturist practically protected as against the British agriculturist, any more than we wish to see Indian manufactures practically protected as against British manufactures. This is only one phase of a question that has been working mischief all these years ; and while placing it side by side with the prohibitive tariffs of foreign countries, which were avowedly enacted to shut out British manufactures, we have only been noting one of the evils with which it is charge- able. I believe the unsettled relation of silver and gold is at the root of the general contraction, or want of elasticity, from which trade everywhere has been suffering. It is stifling Free Trade, not merely in becoming the ally of Protection, in the way I have pointed out, but also as an element which is adversely affecting trade on the Continent, and leading Continental nations to adopt protective duties. Besides, it is hindering the free movement of money and capital, which is as necessary for the general well-being as the free movement of com- modities. The foregoing remarks bearing on the trade with China and Japan are given just as they appeared in the third edition. Now, owing to the closing of the Indian mints, and the creation of an artificial value for the rupee apart from silver, while the CHAP. VI. 100 Foreign Competition. dollar in China and Japan is still based upon the price of that metal, India is in turn handicapped in her trade with these countries. The export trade in cotton yarns and piece goods from Bombay has been checked, and an impetus given to the estab- lishment of new mills in China and Japan. There is, therefore, now, the same thing coming into play against the Bombay mills as Manchester felt from the former stimulus given to these in consequence of exchange differences. In former editions I did not refer to the develop- ment of Jute manufacturing which has also been stimulated in India as against Dundee by the silver difficulty. The following table will show the ad- vance in this respect that has been made : CHAP. VI. Foreign Competition. 101 EXPORTS OF JUTE MANUFACTURES FROM INDIA TO ALL PARTS. Twelve months, 1st April to 31st March. Year. GUNNY CLOTH. YARDS. GUNNY BAGS. NUMBER. VALUE. Rupees. 000 omitted. Average Exchange for year. STERLING VALUE. 1881-82 988,796 42,072,819 1,09,60 s. d. 1/7.90 908,788 1882-83 4,601,247 60,737,651 1,48,59 1/7.53 1,209,199 1883-84 7,049,165 63,645,984 1,33,16 1/7.54 1,084,189 1884-85 15,344,279 82,779,207 1,54,03 1/7.31 1,239,365 1885-86 20,154,251 63,760,546 1,12,82 1/6.25 857,937 1886-87 12,799,225 64,574,657 1,14,93 1/5.44 835,217 1887-88 13,682,912 74,367,620 1,74,09 1/4.90 1,225,833 1888-89 15,160,592 99,790,587 2,56,01 1/4.38 1,747,305 1889-90 37,144,007 97,415,895 2,76,04 1/4.57 1,905,828 1890-91 29,854,029 98,749,416 2,46,28 1/6.09 1,856,352 1891-92 37,289,300 106,250,612 2,50,90 1/4.74 1,750,065 1892-93 40,060,110 123,974,986 3,23,18 1/3 2,019,927 CHAPTEE VII. THE PERVERSE RUPEE. IN replying to an address from the bi-metallists of Manchester, Mr. Goschen said : "One of the most extraordinary points of the whole of this case is that the rupee in India has not acted as according to the laws of political economy the rupee ought to have acted. It has remained stationary while it ought to have followed the prices of silver in other countries, and it is the perverseness of the rupee in India which has caused so much of this difficulty." To appreciate fully the delicate irony of these remarks, and the direction in which they were meant to tell, it is necessary also to quote the following words from the same speech : "Now, for my part, I have held and on NOTE. In this chapter I have also thought it well to make no change from what appeared in the third edition as published in 1890, the entire argument being based upon the conditions in India as they existed prior to the closing of the mints on 26th June last. In the following chapter the new condition of affairs as regards India is fully dealt with. CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 103 that point I have understood I am on the side of bi-metallists that the question of the value of silver and gold was not a simple question of natural supply and demand, and that position on my part, I dare say, is looked upon as a heresy by the extreme disciples of the mono- metallic school." I proceed to examine this perverseness. Is the rupee simply sulking, and like some rebel local authority, defying for the time the general laws to which it must ultimately submit ; or is there some error regarding these so-called laws of political economy, and their application to the case in question ? In pursuing this inquiry it is well, first of all, to define the standpoint from which this perverseness is determined How are we measuring the rupee ? It has no independence as a coin apart from the metal of which it is composed, and is in no sense a token as our English shilling is. You may take any quantity of silver to the mints of India, and get it turned into rupees, or you may melt these rupees and still be no loser from holding bars of silver in place of rupees. It is certainly, therefore, not in relation to silver that the rupee is perverse. Is it, then, in relation to general commodities ? Here, also, the answer is, No. For the rupee to-day, in common with silver everywhere, remains CHAP. VII. 104 The Perverse Rupee. practically unchanged in its purchasing power as regards general commodities, and keeps in line with these. There is only one thing towards which its relation is changed, and that is gold; and it is in looking at the rupee from the gold standpoint alone, and measuring it with gold, that it is pronounced perverse. I will now enquire further. What are the specific laws of political economy that are set at nought by this perverse action of the rupee ? Mr. Goschen's remarks, in the second quotation from his speech, dispose of the idea that the natural laws of supply and demand are the only operating force here, so that the laws which the rupee ought to obey, and does not obey, must be something besides these. I find it difficult to make out what the laws are to which he refers. I presume that all that is meant is, that gold being now the supreme standard of value in Europe and America, the power of silver should everywhere conform to the altered relation of the two metals there. This, however, is simply an assumption, not a law, and the admitted fact that the rupee maintains an independent course, shows that the assumption is not a correct one. It points, moreover, to the pro- bability of there being some misunderstanding as to the facts by which the matter is governed. Let us examine these facts. It seems to me that the way in which the two monetary metals are CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 105 actually distributed over the world is an important factor in the case, and one which requires full consideration. If gold and silver were equally distributed over all the nations of the world, and amongst all the trading classes of these nations, the ideas of the European nations as to their relative value would, no doubt, more readily make themselves felt over the whole area ; but the precious metals are not equally distributed in this way, the actual fact being that the nations of the world are practically divided into two classes in this respect, one of which has silver money, and knows little or noth- ing of gold, and the other gold money with little silver, or practically gold money only. While in ^Europe, therefore, we may regard silver as the inferior metal, and think of gold in the monetary system as an element whose superior gravity, so to speak, should necessarily control the power of silver, we are overlooking the fact that gold and silver are still to a very large extent co-ordinate powers. The demonetisation of silver in Europe, while it has led to the alteration of the relation of the two metals there and where they come into contact, has not affected the power of silver money over the enormous areas and among the vast populations of the East, where silver alone is the sole standard of value, and where there is no contact with gold valuations. CHAP. VII. 106 The Perverse Rupee. The two monetary metals are like two orbs moving in different planes. While the rending of the tie of the bi-metallic ratio, which France main- tained, and which kept their relative power in Europe steady, has led to the divergence of the two valuations there, silver in its own sphere, where it alone is supreme as money, remains un- affected by what has happened. The Eastern races in their internal transactions, in all the small channels of trade, and in the numerous bazaars throughout the East, know nothing of gold as money. The East also is always absorbing silver money, never requiring to export it. What it receives is no more than is required for its expanding trade, and for hoarding. Every ounce of fresh silver imported by the East has the same purchasing power as any other ounce of the existing monetary mass, and nothing happens to shake the confidence which the hundreds of millions of the world's population there, who still use silver, have in its power as money. The quantity of silver also in use throughout the East is immense, say, at least equal to .400,000,000, and the fact that this silver money, and the silver ornaments which the people possess, and which are akin to it, are actu- ally in the hands of the people, gives a potentiality to silver valuations there, which enables them to hold their own against gold valuations. The ideas which may prevail in Europe regarding silver CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 107 count for nothing in the matter, so long, at least, as Eastern Governments do nothing in attempting to interfere with existing laws, or existing usages with regard to it. I believe that in these facts we have the explanation of what Mr. Goschen has styled " the perverseness of the rupee ;" and if so, what an uncomfortable prospect of continued disorganisation of the money of the world does the consideration of them present ! When this monetary difficulty first began to perplex merchants, the mono-metallic school to which Mr. Goschen refers, as I have indicated in the Introduction, was unanimous in assuring us that if left alone matters would right themselves ; but experience has proved that these assurances were wrong, and when fully analysed it is seen that the conditions are such that the disorganis- ation arising from the conflict of the two valuations must inevitably continue, and become more aggra- vated unless something is done to put the matter right. The central idea of what is known as the bi- metallic movement is to restore the unity of money; to re-establish unity between the two centres of valuation the gold valuation and the silver valua- tion so that they may again do their work in harmony. Unfortunately, the name " Bi-metallic " does CHAP. VII. 108 The Perverse Rupee. not clearly convey this idea, and instead of seeking restoration and unity, the movement is too often supposed to be one for the initiation of something new, and an attempt to create an impossible duality. It is necessary, therefore, to question history regarding the matter ; and when this is done, it is found that it is gold mono-metallism, and the ideas regarding money which are identified with it, that are the novelties. The dual basis of money in gold and silver always existed, and still exists. Formerly, the two metals were linked together, and formed practically one thing for the purposes of money. The triumph of mono-metallic ideas has brought with it the duality of money from which we are now suffering. The overthrow of these ideas will lead to the restoration of the unity and har- mony which formerly existed. When England first adopted gold mono-metallism, in 1816, it was a new departure in the history of money a distinct innovation made on former usage. In her early history, England's standard was silver, and for 150 years prior to 1816 she had had a bi-metallic standard, both metals being freely coined, and their relative value legally declared. The coinage of silver was suspended in 1797, as it is suspended in France at the present moment, but this did not affect existing coin and its legal relation of twenty-one shillings to the gold guinea, say, equal to a ratio of 15*21. CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 109 Other nations were bi-metallic at the same time that England was under bi-metallic law, and con- tinued to be so after England made the innovation of adopting gold mono-metallism. Owing to this, and to these nations keeping their mints open to all the world for the free coinage of gold and silver at the fixed ratio of 15 J to 1, the parity of value between the two metals was still everywhere main- tained. The mono-metallic school, all unconscious of the lateral support which the English gold standard was thus receiving, preached up the example of England, until other nations began to follow it, vainly imagining that gold might be the supreme standard for all nations, and that silver, in a sub- ordinate position, would still maintain its old rela- tive value. Experience has proved how fallacious these views were. The old parity was maintained solely by the action of France and the Latin Union, and as soon as the support which their free coinage laws gave was withdrawn, the two valuations began to diverge. The gold standard never was, and never can be, an independent standard of value, unless in the now admittedly impossible case of silver being everywhere abolished as legal tender. Short of this, the presence, and in a large degree the independence of silver must always be counted upon, and whether we will or no, must make itself felt. CHAP. VII. 110 The Perverse Rupee. In seeking unity of standard in one metal, the mono-metallic school has, in effect, brought about the destruction of the unity of money. It ignored the actual conditions of money throughout the world, and overlooked the inter-dependence which must necessarily exist between the gold money and the silver money of the world. These form in their aggregate, whether working together or separately, the basis of monetary valuations, and although to a large extent, as we have seen, moving in different orbits, they act and react upon each other. When silver is demonetised, gold must take its place, and more work must consequently be thrown upon gold. This leads to the appreciation of gold, and creates the conflict of valuations now going on between Europe and the East. Here, then, is the true position of this monetary question. The inono-metallist is the partisan of a school of innovators, whose idea of setting up a standard of value in one metal which would be a true measure of value has lamentably failed, and has resulted in the monetary confusion which we see to-day. The bi-metallist, on the other hand, seeks to arrest this confusion by returning to the old paths, and restoring the unity of money by again linking gold and silver together, and making them virtually one by the tie of a fixed ratio. I would not, for a moment, charge the mono- metallic school with any intentional purpose of CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. Ill bringing about the results which we see to-day, even though some of the interested partisans of that school regard the injustice as between debtor and creditor, which this confusion is causing, with indifference, if not with satisfaction, because the money-lending interests of England are identified with gold, and are benefited by the changes. The mono-metallic school, however, whose theories re- garding money brought about these changes, had no ideas of this kind when they were carrying on their propaganda. Their aim was pure and high. They had in view the need which the world has of a true standard of value, which will measure always and everywhere the same. Their object was to make more perfect the unity of money, and they thought that by having one metal only as the standard of value in all nations, this object would be secured. The mono-metallic school, though basing its ideas on what England had done in 1816, and justifying its agitation by the apparent success of the English system, had, by the middle of the century, formulated ideas regarding money and the single gold standard far in advance of anything entertained by the statesmen under whose auspices the gold standard was established in England. These statesmen had no intention of virtually out- lawing silver by the measures which they adopted. The Act of 1816 itself is described as " An Act to CHAP. VII. 112 The Perverse Rupee. provide a new silver coinage, and to regulate the currency of gold and silver coins ; " and the message of the Prince Regent referring to it speaks of it as "a measure to remedy the defective state and inadequate amount of the silver coinage of the realm/' The anti-silver views, and the idea that the advance of civilisation required that all civilised nations should have the unit of value fixed in gold alone, culminated in the Conference of 1867, and a reference to the proceedings of that Conference will show how a metrical uniformity of the unit of value, and an exact mathematical definition of it, were the prevailing ideas of that Conference ; as if it could be defined for all the world on the same lines as a measure of length or as a measure of quantity. The Latin Union, instituted two years before, had been a success, and this success had been secured by taking into account the actual conditions of the money of the contracting powers, and basing the agreement upon the existing ratio of value for the two metals forming their currencies ; but in suggesting monetary uniformity for the whole world, the conditions of money over the world-wide area that was contemplated were ignored, and the fallacy that a true unit of value could be found in one metal alone was endorsed and recommended by the representatives of all the Powers of Europe. This in due time, as we know, CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 113 resulted in Germany decreeing a gold currency. The consequent sales of German silver money in turn led first to the restriction and, finally, to the closure of the French mints for the coinage of silver, and to the destruction, in this way, of the parity of value which was thereby maintained between the two monetary metals which the world uses. The mono-metallic school believed that the unit of value could be fixed in one metal, and be inde- pendent of all national law beyond that which fixed the fineness and weight of the coin identified with that unit. They thought that the relative values of silver and gold were affected solely by the laws of supply and demand, in the same way as ordinary commodities were, and they did not contemplate ^divergence of value between the two metals in Europe or anywhere else from other causes. They seem further to have believed that if the relative value of the two metals did diverge to any extent, silver as money, in all lands where it was used, would conform, in its purchasing power, to its altered relation in Europe to gold, just as incon- vertible paper money everywhere does. Now, the perverse rupee is the witness that comes into court to show the fallacy of these views. Its reduced value in Europe in relation to gold shows the effect which the demonetisation of silver has had in producing a wide divergence from its i CHAP. VII. 114 The Perverse Rupee. old relation to gold, and its unimpaired purchasing power in the East shows that it has maintained its independence in its own sphere, and remains un- affected by these changes. Our mono-metallic friends cannot, surely, be content with the present position of affairs. Their dearest aim was to secure the perfect unity of money in the high interests of trade and commerce everywhere, and surely when their schemes have failed, and only confusion and greater difficulty in trading have resulted from the attempt to realise their ideal, the time has come when they must either show how their cherished ideal of the unity of money is now to be secured, or stand aside and cease to obstruct the efforts of those who seek for the restoration of the monetary unit in the two metals, with a fixed parity of value between them. I have so far, in this chapter, referred chiefly to the evils resulting from the want of parity between the two monetary metals, and to the varying diver- gence that now exists. In forming a judgment on the general question, it is necessary also to ascer- tain clearly whether this divergence marks an appreciation of gold or a depreciation of silver. It is a self-evident fact to many minds, and, I think, should be to all, that if the general level of prices in Europe has fallen a thing now universally ad- mitted the medium in which they are measured, i.e., gold, must have acquired greater purchasing CKAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 115 power. Commodities measure money, just as money measures commodities, and if it requires the surrender of a larger quantity of commodities to obtain a given amount of money, it is evident that the relation that formerly existed between them has become altered, and this is just another way of saying that gold has become appreciated. If it be said that improved appliances and new discoveries have led to cheaper production, you have to admit that these improvements and dis- coveries have not equally affected gold ; so that, even in view of this exception, you are forced to the conclusion that gold has become appreciated in value. The fall in the value of commodities in relation to gold, and what we call the fall of silver in rela- tion to gold, have been about equal. Silver now being ranked as simply a commodity in Europe, it keeps in line with commodities, and, though its relation to gold has altered, its relation to com- modities remains the same as formerly. Its pur- chasing power where it is money, and its value against other commodities where it is not, continue practically unchanged. In this we have further conclusive proof that the divergence between the two metals results in the main from the apprecia- tion of gold, and that silver has not so far in any real sense fallen in value. In his speech Mr. Goschen said that there were CHAP. VII. 116 The Perverse Rupee. still some who disputed the appreciation of gold. We know that he does not do so, and he has given us, on former occasions, good reasons for its ap- preciation in showing the greater work that gold has now to perform as money in consequence of the demonetisation of silver. I have already in- cidentally referred to this, but there are also other ways, not so obvious, in which matters have been working to bring about this result ; and these, though more subtle and more difficult to trace, are perhaps even more powerful as effective causes in the matter. To find the exact value of an article at any given moment, the process of higgling between buyer and seller has to be gone through. Apart from actual transactions made in this way, all declared values are only estimates based on experience of what has formerly been done. When general business is flowing smoothly, the record of actual sales forms the basis of what is called market price, and becomes the guide for fresh transactions, but it is simply a guide, for values may be upset at any moment, and the past is no certain guarantee of what the next sale may be. Commercial men all know say, for instance, in the stock market that, when something unusual has happened, busi- ness is, for the moment, interrupted, until a price is made by an actual transaction taking place, which immediately forms the basis of other transactions. CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 117 The forces that come into play in making a price in this way, cannot be definitely gauged. They include all the motives by which man is swayed prejudice, and vague hope or fear, as well as logical reasons, not infrequently influencing his action. Though not generally so observable as in the case instanced, this process is always going on. It is fully at work when prices with the East are un- settled by a sudden fall in silver, and a new price has to be made in consequence of the altered rela- tion of the currencies for the articles which the East requires, and a new price has also to be made in the produce markets, where Eastern produce can from the same cause be offered more cheaply. Over the entire area of commerce the repeated unsettlement of values from these silver variations, and the necessary effort to bring buyer and seller again to a point, are constantly tending, by the cutting down of price, to the enhancement of the metal (gold) in which European prices are mea- sured. The disfavour also with which silver, as money, is now regarded, makes itself felt by caus- ing everyone to look more and more to gold as the only monetary equivalent in which security against depreciation can be found, and all the ups and downs of silver throw it more completely into the line of ordinary commodities, making the possession of gold more desired. Even, therefore, though there may be no great CHAP. VII. 118 The Perverse Rupee. quantitative difference in the relative amounts of gold and silver money still in use in the world, these disturbances in the relation they bear to each other all tend to the enhancement of gold. It is the one exception to the general fall in value that is going on, and beyond this, from carrying in itself the premium of continual appreciation, which is now generally recognised, it is the more eagerly coveted. Not that people take to hoarding, for so long as there are securities, such as Consols, that are practically equal to gold, they do not need to do so; but everybody wishes that someone else should take the risk of commercial and industrial under- takings, or if money is lent for these, care is taken that it is secured by a large margin of capital, which must first disappear before the loan can be imperilled. One of the fundamental propositions of political economy is that " capital is kept up not by preser- vation, but by perpetual reproduction,* and if this perpetual reproduction, through industrial enter- prise, cannot be safely pursued, what becomes of the capital which these industrial enterprises represent ? Silent mills are of no value, and concerns that are yielding no adequate return upon the capital invested in them must quickly come into the same category; and if we add the fact that * "J. S. Mill's Principles of Political Economy," Book I,,, chap. 5, sec. 6. CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 119 land is going out of cultivation, because in some cases, even without rent, it cannot now be culti- vated profitably, surely we have a state of matters that ought to give rise to the deepest concern, and which cries loudly for the fullest investigation by our statesmen. They must not be misled by the abundance of capital seeking for safe investment. This is not altogether the result of increased accu- mulation. It means the desire to avoid commercial risks, and is a direct result of the appreciation of gold that is now going on. It is well for the Chancellor of the Exchequer to avail of these circumstances to reduce the burden of interest which our National Debt entails ; but it would be more satisfactory for the nation if they did not exist ; and the necessary tendency to effect 're-arrangements of this kind shows how every in- terest in turn, even those supposed to be most secure, must suffer from the present monetary confusion unless it is brought to an end. In the speech to which I have been referring, Mr. Goschen, in the character of candid friend of the bi-metallists, pointed out that when dealing with the fall in price a, and referring to the evils resulting therefrom, there was danger of the bi- metallic movement being regarded as an advocacy of Protection. We have to thank Mr. Goschen for giving this warning ; but did he or any other person ever hear of a movement touching the per- 120 The Perverse Rupee. sonal interests of men, where it could not be plausibly shown that some individuals or classes would be protected in this sense to the disadvan- tage of others ? The repeal of the Corn Laws was avowedly for the purpose of protecting the consumer against the landlord interests of the country, and every reform has to fight against vested interests that would be affected by it. Common sense, however, will not long sit on the rail and remain inactive because such things can be urged. It will examine them, and give due weight to all that can be said; but if the movement be necessary for the vital interests of the country and for the true interests of trade everywhere, and moreover is based on justice and equity, such ob- jections will not long prevail. Tn*e mere assumption that prices will be affected by the restoration of the parity of value between gold and silver is a practical admission that prices have been affected and have fallen through want of that parity ; but to raise prices is not the objec- tive aim of the bi-metallic movement. The primary aim, as I have already indicated, is to restore the unity of the world's money. Knowing that the continuous fall in prices which has been going on is mainly due to the appreciation of the gold standard in which prices are measured, and recog- nising in this a great evil, they seek to arrest this fall by correcting the standard to the variations in CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 121 which it is due. The restoration of the unity and smooth working of the two monetary metals, while it would check the fall, would no doubt also tend to raise prices again, not, I believe, owing to any quantitative difference that it would produce in the actual volume of money, but rather from the general effect on trade which the removal of the present conflict of the two valuations would pro- duce. Consumers have not really benefited by the unnatural fall in values that has taken place, because all have suffered in their resources from the effects of that fall. Manufacturers would will- ingly pay rather more for their raw materials, and could work more profitably even on a higher basis of cost for these, if the conditions of trade were steadier, and the necessity that now exists for the continuous scaling down of values were removed.* It is a poor argument, as Mr. Goschen puts it, to say that " if you raise the value to the owner of * At present anyone embarking in any industrial undertaking has to keep in view that besides providing for depreciation from tear and wear, and the effect that the progress of new inventions may have upon existing machinery, must also take into account the scaling down of values over and above all this from the appre- ciation of the gold standard in which the property is measured. The Oldham spinning mills, erected of late years under the Limited Liability Act, were at first supposed to be successful, but in a statement lately made by the secretary of the Masters' Association for Oldham, he declares that taking the whole of these mills at first cost with actual dividends paid, and apprais- ing the property at its present value, they have been making nothing at all for the last ten years. CHAP. Til. 122 The Perverse Rupee. the property, you are raising it to those who wish to buy that property." Notwithstanding low prices, where are buyers of property at present to be found ? Will not the buyer quickly find himself in as bad a position as he who now wishes to sell, if the continuous depreciation now going on is not arrested ? Buyers and sellers everywhere have a common interest in the re-establishment of a true measure of value that will not change as our gold standard under the present conditions is doing. Mr. Goschen also referred to the interests of India, and to the effect which a change in the pre- sent conditions might have upon her power to com- pete as she is now doing with Manchester in cotton goods and yarns, and in grain with the growers of this country. No doubt the action of the perverse rupee has been giving her an important advantage in these respects. Manchester is already concerned at the competition of the Bombay mills, not only in supplying India, but also in competing with her for the trade of other Eastern countries, such as China and Japan. The low sterling prices also at which India can export wheat, have perhaps as much as any other cause tended to the low rates for grain which our farmers here must accept. From the Indian standpoint these considerations may be regarded complacently, but England's in- terest in the matter cannot be ignored. If it be that this double-faced value or power of the rupee CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 123 its stationary value towards India, and its re- duced and fluctuating value towards Europe, is due, not to anything that has come about naturally, but to a positive error that has been committed in attempting to establish the unit of value in gold alone, England would be perfectly within her right in seeking to undo the effects of this error by re- storing the old parity of gold and silver, even though India should have to forego the incidental advantage in these respects which England's error has given her. This is one way of looking at the position. But does India on the whole gain by the present state of matters ? I hold that she is a loser, and that she would benefit greatly, in common with all the world, by the re-establishment of the parity of value between gold and silver. No one denies that the fluctuations of exchange, due to the uncertainty of silver valuations in Europe, are a great hindrance to trade. They involve risk and loss, no matter what arrangements bankers and merchants may adopt to overcome them. Even the mere cost of such arrangements is a heavy burden on trade. India also needs English capital for its develop- ment ; but, under present conditions, the risks and the uncertainty as regards silver stand in the way of this ; and not only is capital withheld, but it is actually being withdrawn. In a speech at a meet- 124 The Perverse Rupee. ing of the Bankers' Institute, Mr. Gwyther, of the Chartered Bank of India, Australia, and China, referring to this, said : " What do we find ? Not that capital goes to India and I speak advisedly but the converse; and that has been going on for the last fifteen years. When the Latin Union stopped the coin- ing of silver on the old ratio, people who had money in the East scarcely realised the effect. Then, when they found that the exchange on England fell continuously, they got into a de- spairing mood, and said : " Things are so bad they cannot become worse/' and they allowed their money to remain ; but for the last three or four years I have noticed that they have finally made up their minds to cut the knot, and have their capital back coute que coute." As regards the Bombay mill industries, they are a mere fraction in relation to the general interests of India. Though bereft of the special advantage which the perverse rupee at present gives them, they would still have a fair field. The natural advantages of their position, and the proximity of cotton which they enjoy, would enable them to a large extent still to hold their own, especially in supplying India herself. It is the vast agricultural interests of India, however, which have mainly to be considered. She has, no doubt, an advantage where she competes with Europe in any article of CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 125 produce, through being able, from exchange differ- ences, to sell at lower European prices; but she loses the advantage that results from this, and probably much more, by the general fall of prices in Europe, which affects the whole of her produce. The great increase of railway communication in India, which late years have witnessed, would, I believe, have tended far more than it has done to the advancement of India, but for the fall in values in Europe that has taken place. Viewing the whole commercial position of India, the advantages she has derived from her indepen- dent silver currency have been rather negative than positive. She has been saved from much of the suffering that gold-standard countries have ex- perienced, but I believe the restoration of the old parity of value between gold and silver, besides removing the difficulties that have so harassed Europe, would also give increased impetus to the trade of India. The interests of India, also, are bound up with the interests of the great comity of trading nations, and what would contribute to the general prosperity of the whole would undoubtedly in the main be for her benefit. Everyone knows how the finances of the Indian Government have been affected by the losses in exchange, for which it has to provide. To get rid of these losses, and the difficulties to which they give rise, would no doubt be a great boon to India, CHAP. VII. 126 The Perverse Rupee. and would leave her statesmen much more free to promote and extend those industrial works which are so necessary for her progress. There are some commercial writers in the London press who try to make out that these exchange differences, which the Indian Government have to meet, are not real losses. I think it would be very hard to convince those who have to deal practically with the matter in India of this. If the rupee in India has remained stationary, then a rupee there must still mean what it has always meant. No more rupees are paid in taxes in consequence ^of. the altered value of the rupee in Europe, and the Government cannot, by any legerdemain, make these rupees go further in meeting the increased amount in rupees which it now takes to defray the interest on gold loans and other gold charges for which it has to provide. The fact that the debts of the Indian Govern- ment are actually discharged by the shipment of commodities makes no difference. Values cannot be denned, or even expressed, without reference to the standard of value, and India's silver standard measures equally what goes into India and what goes out. The silver money of India, like all true money, is an equivalent value in itself of the articles for which it is exchanged, and measures quite independently of any other standard. The mono-metallist can never get rid of the habit of CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 127 looking at values in India through the eye of gold, regarding her money as if it were simply like inconvertible paper money. Hence the confusion of thought and the erroneous ideas of the writers to whom I have referred. They are not even con- sistent in applying the gold measure. If they were, they would be bound also to conclude that the actual wealth of India in silver money, and silver ornaments had been enormously affected by the change in the relative value of silver to gold which has taken place. I have seen the total amount of silver thus existing in India estimated at 600,000,000. Upon this, on the hypothesis supposed, India must have lost about 150,000,000, and alongside such loss any supposed gain other- wise would appear as insignificant. Fortunately for India, however, the East has not bowed down before the golden idol which the West has set up. Silver, as we have seen, maintains its independence, and the effect which the full triumph of mono- metallic ideas must have had upon India in this respect has been averted. But apart from this, and taking the position of silver as it at present stands, I think that no one who looks at the whole of the interests of India as they would be affected by a bi-metallic arrangement can doubt that it would be greatly to her advantage that it should be carried out. I would only further remark here that, while it CHAP. VII. 128 The Perverse Eupee. is necessary to consider the interests that have been affected by the present disorganisation of the world's money, and the interests that would be affected by the steps necessary to restore monetary harmony, no clear conception of the real nature of the question can be gained by merely comparing and balancing these different interests. A malaise admittedly exists, and it is the duty of those who seek for a remedy not merely to discuss the com- parative importance of the different symptoms, but to diagnose the disease, and to understand fully the monetary dislocation that is the cause of it. We have often been told by economists that money is a tool. It is meant to be the servant of man ; but how often do those who oppose monetary reform practically invest our gold standard with far higher attributes, and regard it as a sacred thing that must on no account be touched? It was meant to be a true measure of value, that would be a just equivalent for property and services everywhere. But when it is found that it has lost its stationary quality, and is only a measure of things in relation to itself, then we are told that we must be content to adjust everything else to its altered equivalence. Wages must come down, rents must fall, mortgages and settlements must be revised, but we must not touch our sacred gold standard. Does not this involve the reversing of the proper order of things ; the tail wagging the CHAP. VII. The Perverse Rupee. 129 body, the tool, in place of being a servant, becoming master? The intelligence of the country will, I believe, ere long see all this, and, with omnipotent voice, demand that the matter be put right. CHAPTEE VIII. HISTORICAL ASPECT AND PRESENT POSITION OF THE QUESTION. THE mono-metallists' favourite mode of dealing with this monetary question, is to treat it alto- gether as an abstract question, ignoring monetary history, and the great fact that gold and silver unitedly constitute the world's money. The State, they say, does nothing more than impress a stamp indicating weight and fineness of the gold coin which has been chosen for our standard. This done, the action of supply and demand must have free course, and we are powerless to interfere. The theory thus indicated is beautiful in its sim- plicity, and if we were living in an ideal world, where only one monetary metal existed, there would be nothing to say against it. Unfortunately for the theory, however, our actual world has two metals on which value is based, and the theory which takes cognisance of one only as the basis of value is altogether inadequate as a true represent- ation of the doctrine of money. The solidarity of the world's money cannot be ignored, and, as I have endeavoured to show, it is impossible for any CHAP. VIII. Historical Aspect 131 one nation to have a standard of value in the one metal unaffected by what may befall the other. The older economists, who cherished and idolised the beautifully simple theory to which I have referred, seemed to have England's experience for the first sixty years of her gold standard history in their favour, because the corrective action of the laws of other nations rendered the individual action of England powerless to destroy the steady ratio of value between the two metals. Now, however, that this steady ratio is gone, through other nations trying to follow the example of England, the true value of this vaunted theory is being seen, and it is satisfactory that the professors who now take the lead in economic science are gradually ranging themselves on the bi-metallic side. Professor Sidgwick, of Cambridge, in a work published in 1883, concludes his remarks on the question of standard in the following words : * "So far we have been considering the controversy of the standards, as though the question were one of establishing a currency de novo. Of course it is not in this form that it comes within the range of practical politics. The trade of the world even I may say the internal trade of the British Empire is actually carried on under bi-metallic conditions ; and no one doubts that this will continue to be the * " The Principles of Political Economy," by Henry Sidgwick, pp. 455-6. CHAP. Till. 132 Historical Aspect case for an indefinite period. Indeed, the most eager mono-metallists do not appear to desire a universal adoption of a gold currency, at the risk of a great rise in the value of the medium of exchange. The practical issue, therefore, so far as international trade is concerned, lies not between mono-metallism and bi-metallism, but between rated and unrated bi-metallism." He previously explains that by rated bi-metallism he means " the two metals made legal tender at a fixed ratio," and by unrated bi-metallism the present condition of things. Since the publication of Professor Sidgwick's work, we have seen Professor Nicholson, of Edin- burgh, and Professor Foxwell, of Cambridge, boldly avowing bi-metallic views, and entering into the controversy with all the force and earnestness which strong conviction gives, and almost nowhere do we now find any serious academic opposition to bi- metallic views. In the " Silver Pound,"* by Mr. Dana Horton, we have also recently had an important addition made to our knowledge of the monetary history of England, and the painstaking care with which he has investigated all the leading points of that history and the views associated with the great names identified with it, entitles him to our warmest thanks. * Macmillan & Co., London. CHAP. VIII. and Present Position of the Question. 133 The historical aspect of the question is well worthy of the fullest consideration. Till the present difficulties arose, we in England were in a dream about our supposed perfect gold currency, unconscious that the theories and historical sanc- tions upon which it was based were false and misleading. Unfortunately, our dream was shared very generally by other nations, as was seen in the resolutions of the Monetary Conference of 1867, and a perusal of the documents in connection with same (extracts from which will be found in the Appendices) will show how the unsettlement and mischief from which we have been suffering were set agoing by the decisions arrived at in that Conference. The data given bearing upon English monetary legislation will also help the reader to understand this.* Those who have believed the assertion so often made that law has nothing to do with the matter, may be surprised to find the extent to which law has actually had to do with it ; not merely in the choice of the standard, which mono-metallists must admit, but in regulating the matter all through. The Mint Indentures of Elizabeth, prescribing that the pound troy of silver should be cut into sixty-two shillings, was a fundamental law of Eng- lish money up to the time that it was set aside by the statute of 1816. The standard for gold coin * Appendices N and O. CHAP. Till. 134 Historical Aspect was fixed in the time of Charles II. at 44J guineas to the pound troy. These guineas continued at first to vary in value, but were ultimately fixed in the year 1717 by proclamation of George I., under the advice of Parliament, at twenty-one shillings in England's then standard silver money, and thus a fixed bi-metallic basis was formed which, whatever coin happened to prevail in Eng- land, was her real standard of value. (Clause llth of the statute of 1816 recognises this.) Gold, as will be seen, was still undervalued ; and as a necessary consequence, under particular bi- metallism, the cheap money, gold, drove or rather kept out the dear money, silver, so that for more than three-quarters of a century gold was the chief coin current in England. But the Mint Indentures of Elizabeth and Charles II., and the proclamation of George I., were still in force, potent though passive, just as the law of gravitation is no less potent while controlling the stationary boulder than it is in controlling the falling stone. And this bi-metallism at once showed its vitality when in 1798 the outside price of silver fell to a point that made it suitable to exchange silver for gold at the English ratio. Then silver began again to be brought to the English Mint for coinage; but under a false idea as to the meaning and conse- quences of this movement, the English Mint fdr the coinage of silver was closed. CHAP. VIII. and Present Position of the Question. 135 With the suspension of specie payments at the Bank of England, which happened about the same time, inconvertible paper money became, and for a long period continued to be, the chief money of England, and during that time the true basis of her currency was lost sight of. When this inter- regnum in the reign of metallic money came to an end, gold was enthroned as the supreme standard of England's money. The old laws were all re- pealed by the statute of 1816. Silver, instead of being coined at the rate of sixty-two shillings to the pound, was henceforth to be coined at the rate of sixty-six shillings, and not to be a legal tender for more than forty shillings, while the pound sterling of English money was declared to be a 'hundred and twenty-three and a quarter grains of standard gold containing a hundred and thirteen grains of pure gold, and nothing else. No law in the matter ! Are these enactments mythical ? The extracts which I have given from Mr. Dana Horton's able paper, examining the Bullion Eeport of 1810, on which the legislation of 1816 was founded, will show how, in pursuing the primary object of restoring the convertibility of England's paper money, the Committee failed to perceive the full import of the change in standard which they recommended. Even Lord Liverpool himself, whose views were carried out, could not have had this CHAP. VIII. 136 Historical Aspect fully before him, if we judge from the way in which he wrote regarding the matter.* No doubt a due supply of gold and silver coin for the internal currency of England was effectually secured by the legislation of 1816. As a theoretical arrangement for the " coins of the realm " it suited admirably, and for sixty years, as we have seen, it had no apparent drawbacks ; but it was none the less a revolutionary measure in other respects, though it was so long in bearing its necessary fruits. It is often asserted, in supposed disparagement of bi-metallism, that it means the alternation of the two monetary metals, and that in France, under bi-metallic law, there was an alternating demand, now for the one metal and now for the other, leading to her stock of money consisting at times of more gold and less silver and at other times of less gold and more silver. But what harm did this do ? The mass of her people never suf- fered inconvenience from these changes, and the basis of value (the standard) was never affected by it. It is indeed of the very essence of bi-metallism that it automatically affords play for this alterna- tion, and that whatever may be the strain upon either the one metal or the other, a compensatory action takes place which neutralises any disturb- ing effect upon the standard resulting from it. The full history of the question since 1874 would * See " Standard of Value," by Leightoii Jordan. CHAP. VIII. and Present Position of the Question. 137 form an interesting chapter, but I will only notice a few of the more important circumstances which have bulked out in the public view as the contro- versy has been proceeding. The United States of America under the influence of the old gold craze, and in what is now admitted to have been a surreptitious way,* had in the year 1873 practically demonetised silver when she was codifying her coinage laws. As soon, however, as the American people realised what had been done, a strong movement in favour of the re-establish- ment of that metal began, and quickly became very powerful. This movement resulted in the passing of what was known as the Bland Act, under which silver to the amount of about 5,000,000 per -annum was coined into legal tender dollars. At that time also (1878) America called together a conference of the leading European nations at Paris with a view of getting them to join with her in re-estab- lishing silver on an international basis, but this conference failed. Again in 1881 she called another conference ; this time France joined with her in sending out the invitations. More progress was made in this than in the first conference, but still it adjourned with no definite result. After this the tendency of the price of silver continued down- wards, and the fall became accelerated in the year 1885 when a bill was brought into the American * Appendix L. . CHAP. VIII. 138 Historical Aspect Congress to repeal the Bland Act. The promoters of that bill were bi-metallists, but seeing that Europe would not listen to persuasion, they judged that the only way to force the question upon its attention was to let Europe feel the effect of the stoppage of the American silver purchases upon the value of that metal. Though the repeal of the Act was not then carried out, the mere fear of this led to silver falling from 49d. in July, 1885, to 46d. in January, 1886. In the latter year a very hopeless feeling prevailed regarding silver, and in August the price had fallen to 42d., carrying with it Eupee exchange to Is. 4Jd. The Koyal Commission on the Depression of Trade was then sitting, and that Commission, in prosecuting its investigations, was forced to the conclusion that the change in the relative value of the precious metals was an important element among the causes of that depression, and upon its recommendation a further Commission known as the " Gold and Silver Commission " was appointed specially to examine this change. After a laborious and protracted investigation, this Commission in the year 1888 presented its report in three parts the first, signed by all the twelve members, in which the main facts insisted upon by bi-metallists as to the depreciation of silver and the appreciation of gold, and the evils resulting therefrom, are fully admitted ; the second, signed by six members, who, while admit- CHAP. VIII. and Present Position of the Question. 139 ting the evils, express themselves as unable to recommend the remedy proposed by bi-metallists ; and the third, signed by the remaining six, who express themselves in favour of the bi-metallic remedy, and answer the arguments urged against it.* Lately Mr. Leonard Courtney, one of the six who signed the second part, has declared himself to be now in favor of Bi-metallism, making seven out of the twelve Commissioners who now adhere to the third report. Although the London press took little notice of this report, its importance was none the less significant, and it placed the question in this country upon quite a new footing. Nor was it only in England that it told. On the Continent of Europe the investigation was also earnestly 'watched ; and in America a similar interest was taken in the proceedings of the Commission, and there is no doubt that it had a decided influence in determining the new and bold policy regarding silver in 1890 when the Sherman Act was passed.! Our financial writers in England have all along failed to gauge the true meaning of the silver movement in America. They have seen in it nothing more than the result of the intrigues of the silver mine owners, and under this view they have only sneered at it. The American people, how- ever, have looked upon the matter very differently. They have seen in it a currency question of the * Appendix R. f Appendix M. CHAP. VIII. 140 Historical Aspect highest moment, and her most prominent statesmen recognise the necessity of reinstating silver as the co-partner of gold. America is permeated with bi- metallic ideas, and the various attempts that she has made to secure an international settlement shows how earnestly she has sought this solution. The Sherman Act of 1890, besides having the purpose of supplying increased currency, was carried out under the belief that America would have power, by herself through this Act, so to raise the price of silver that it would advance to nearly the old relation to gold, and with this secured, that it would then be more easy to induce the European nations to join in fixing the ratio internationally at the old rate. The intention was good, but the effect was only temporary ; and the evanescent nature of the improvement which took place in that year, with the subsequent heavy fall in silver and silver exchanges, we all know led to times of great difficulty in our Eastern trade, and to the paralysation of industry from the increased severity of monetary dislocation which resulted. So gene- rally were these evils felt that the late Government was induced to consent to take part in a further Conference of the leading nations upon monetary affairs, which the United States' Government again proposed to call together, and which assembled at Brussels in November, 1892.* * Appendix I. CHAP. VIII. and Present Position of the Question. 141 Unfortunately, the present government, to whom it had fallen to complete the arrangements for the British representation at this Conference, did not look upon it with the same favour as their pre- decessors had done, and to make sure of their own ideas being fully represented, they added to those already appointed to represent English and Indian interests the names of two other gentlemen, one being a government official whose action dur- ing the course of its meetings and whose premature declarations on behalf of the English government in an absolutely mono-metallic sense, destroyed all hope of the Conference agreeing upon any concerted action, and it was generally feared when the ad- journment took place at Christmas, 1892 (and the result has so far justified the fear) that it would 'not meet again. The failure of this Conference owing to the attitude of England, gave a great blow to the prospects of an international agreement. Meantime the extreme financial difficulties of the Indian government, resulting from the fall in the exchange value of the rupee, had forced the English government to take cognisance of this aspect of the question. The Indian government had for many years been urging the home government to procure a settle- ment of the questions by means of international bi-metallism, and had declared that if this were unattainable it should be allowed to act for itself, CHAP. VIII. 142 Historical Aspect and either close the Imperial mints in India against silver, or treat directly with the United States government regarding it, so as to prevent the further fall of Eupee exchange. After the Brussels' conference adjourned, a committee, under the presidency of Lord Herschell,* which had been appointed by the home govern- ment to consider the first of the two alternatives suggested by the Indian government the second being ignored was pressed for its decision, and in an evil hour, contrary to the weight of evidence which it had taken, that committee decided to recommend the closing of the mints. The Indian government now giving up hope of getting England to favor the settlement of the difficulty by international agree- ment, and fearing that the American government might in the meantime precipitate a fresh crisis by repealing the Sherman Act, at once carried out the recommendation of the Herschell committee. The immediate effect of closing the Indian mints was that silver at once fell from 38d. to 30d., while rupee exchange rose from Is. 2Jd. to near Is. 4d. But, alas for the necessities of the Indian government, the exchange rate again began to give way, and there has never since been an exchange market upon which the sale of Council drafts could have been pressed without the certainty of a still greater fall taking place. * Appendix J. CHAP. VIII ~ and Present Position of the Question. 143 Hoping that general trade conditions might, sub- sequently, become more favourable for the sale of these drafts, the government has seen seven months pass over without these hopes being realised, and now finds itself in such financial difficulty that power to borrow in England to the extent of ten millions sterling has had to be taken to meet the pressing wants for Indian payments on this side. One thing which has tended to turn the balance of trade, and prevent the improvement in exchange which the Indian Government expected from the closing of the mints, has been the fact that silver has continued to go to India in as large or larger quantities than ever ; but, in place of going through the Imperial mints, it has got into the hands of the people through the silversmiths, and largely "also as coin through the mints in the native states, with which the Imperial Government has no power to interfere. Mainly to meet this difficulty it is understood that the Indian officials were lately strongly urging the imposition of a heavy duty on silver, but the home government decided against this. If it had been imposed, it would only have been another doubtful step to fortify the first false one: like America, finding the Bland Act ineffective in maintaining the price of silver, following it up by the larger purchases of the Sherman Act, only to land that country in greater difficulty. The last-named Act in America was finally CHAP. VIII. 144 Historical Aspect. repealed, after long discussion, in the American Congress in November last ; and, at the present moment, what were formerly the two great outlets for silver, viz., the open doors of the Imperial Mints in India, and the American monetary absorption of silver, have disappeared. Yet, as we have seen, silver still continues to go to the East, and must continue to do so, as the Eastern nations must have silver, and silver only, for their internal transactions. At the moment all is confusion, doubt, and uncertainty in the business relations of these countries, and what bi-metallists have been so long urging as the only possible solution of the difficulty is now being recognised pretty generally as the one that must, ultimately, be adopted. The legislation in America, which stopped the purchase of silver under the Sherman Act, re- affirmed on behalf of that country its unabated confidence in international bi-metallism. France also has not changed from her former attitude toward it. In Germany a monetary commission is now sitting with the view of joining in this remedy, and I believe we may now confidently hope that the opposition of permanent officials and of influential bankers in England, which has been so powerful in influencing our English statesmen to oppose bi- metallism, will, ere long, be forced to give way before the rising opinion of the country in its favour. APPENDICES. APPENDIX A. FKENCH MONETARY LEGISLATION.* MONETARY LAW OF 1803. Law relating to the Fabrication and Verification of Coins of the 7-17 Germinal, Year XI. of the French Re- public (1803). DECREE. GENERAL DISPOSITIONS. Five grammes of silver, nine-tenths of fine, constitute the monetary unit, which retains the name of franc. TITLE I. OF THE FABRICATION OF COINS. ARTICLE I. The Silver Coins shall be the quarter of a franc, half-franc, three-quarters of a franc, one- franc, two-franc, and five-franc pieces. ARTICLE II. Their fineness is fixed at nine-tenths fine and one-tenth alloy. ARTICLE III. The weight of the quarter of a franc piece shall be one gramme twenty-five centigrammes. That of the half -franc piece, two grammes five de"ci- gramrnes. That of the three-quarters of a franc piece, three grammes seventy-five centigrammes. That of the one-franc piece, five grammes. * "International Monetary Conference, &c., 1878." Wash- ington, 1879. Page 155. 146 Appendix A. That of the two-franc piece, ten grammes. That of the five-franc piece, twenty-five grammes. AKTICLE IV. The tolerance of fineness for silver money shall be three-thousandths, outside as well as within. ARTICLE V. The tolerance of weight shall be for the quarter of a franc piece, ten thousandths outside as well as within ; for the half -franc and three-quarters of a franc piece, seven thousandths outside as well as within ; for the one-franc and two-franc piece, five thousandths outside as well as within ; and for the five-franc piece, three thousandths outside as well as within. ARTICLE VI. There shall be coined gold pieces of twenty francs and of forty francs. ARTICLE VII. Their fineness is fixed at nine-tenths fine and one-tenth alloy. ARTICLE VIII.- The twenty-franc pieces shall be struck at the rate of a hundred and fifty-five pieces to the kilogramme, and the forty-franc pieces at that of seventy-seven and a half. ARTICLE IX. The tolerance of fineness of the gold coins is fixed at two thousandths outside, the same within. ARTICLE X. The tolerance of weight is fixed at two thousandths outside, the same within. ARTICLE XI. The expense of coinage alone can be required of those who shall bring material of gold or silver to the Mint. These charges are fixed at nine francs per kilogramme of gold, and at three francs per kilogramme of silver. (The rates here fixed were changed several times). . APPENDIX B. VAEIATIONS IN THE PRICE OF SILVER PRIOR TO 1873. Keferring to table on page 14, it is proper to note that while the decennial and yearly averages there given show such remarkable steadiness of ratio, the variations within these periods have been at times more important than these averages indicate. There is no doubt that between 1827 and 1872 the price of silver in London touched the extreme points of 58d. and 62Jd. per ounce, which is a difference of seven per cent., or three and a half per cent, on either side of the central point. From these facts mono-metallists have argued that the action of the French law did not actually maintain the steadiness that is claimed for it that increased supplies, now of the one metal, now of the other, asserted their power in determining the relative prices of silver and gold in spite of the French law. They do not altogether deny that it had a steadying power. The fact is too patent for this ; and if they would patiently examine the whole circumstances of these variations of price, they would also be forced to admit that the variations in the supplies 148 Appendix B. of the metals had little to do with the matter; that they were, in fact, caused by "The French Mint charges, the capacity of the French Mints for coining, the state of the French silver coinage, and by the circumstance that, because universal bi-metallism did not obtain, silver must often pass between France and England against the current of the exchange between these countries." The same writer, Mr. J. N. Soderholm, also says : " Morio-metallists have seen in the price of silver in London not only a proof of the impossibility of all bi- metallism, but also a proof of the silver coins, say, in France, are not worth the gold with which they are actually circulating at par. We know that nothing can be more erroneous. The price of silver in London is nothing else than it pretends to be the price of that silver which has been sold in that place at the time when the price is given. It is by no means the price of all silver in all places. And it is therefore also erroneous to strike an average of the London silver prices for a number of years, and offer the same as the true value of silver in general during those years." These remarks sum up a most careful and accu- rate analysis of this matter, by the writer whom I have named.* It is impossible to do justice to his argument by any extracts from it, and I can only recommend my readers to peruse his work, in the * "The Ratio of Value beteen Gold and Silver as Money,-" -by J. N. Soderholm. London : J. N. Soderholm & Co., 72, Bishops- gate Street, E.G. Variations in the Price of Silver. 149 sixteenth and seventeenth chapters of which the matter is referred to. Mr. H. H. Gibbs also deals with the same point in his Colloquy,* and Mr. Tidman in his book, " Gold and Silver Money," gives a detailed table showing the actual variations.! * " A Colloquy on Currency," by Henry H. Gibbs. London : Effingham. Wilson & Co., Royal Exchange. t " Gold and Silver Money," by Paul F. Tidman. London : Kegan Paul, Trench, & Co. APPENDIX C. THE LATIN UNION. Monetary Treaty, concluded December 23rd, 1865, betiveen France, Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland* His Majesty the Emperor of the'French, His Majesty the King of the Belgians, His Majesty the King of Italy, and the Swiss Confederation, equally animated by the desire to effect a more perfect harmony in their Monetary Legislation, and to remedy the in- convenience to trade between their respective coun- tries resulting from the diversity of their small silver coins, and to contribute to the uniformity of weights, measures, and coins by forming a Monetary Union, have therefore resolved to conclude a Convention for that purpose, and have named their Commis- sioners Plenipotentiary as follows : .... ARTICLE 1. Belgium, France, Italy, and Switzer- land unite to regulate the weight, title, form, and circulation of their gold and silver coins. No change is made for the present in legislation relative to copper coins for the four countries. ARTICLE 2. The high contracting parties bind them- selves not to coin, or permit to be coined, any gold other than in pieces of 100, 50, 20, 10, and 5 francs in weight, tolerance, and diameter, as follows : All these coins shairbe of the fineness or standard of 900, with a tolerance of two thousandths above or below the legal * ''International Monetary Conference, &c., 1878." Wash- ington, 1879. Page 787. The Latin Union. 151 standard. The tolerance in weight shall be for the 100 and for the 50 franc pieces, one thousandth above or below ; for the 20 and 10 franc pieces, two thou- sandths ; for the 5 franc pieces, three thousandths. The weights and diameters are these : Gold coins 100 francs, weight 32-258-06 grams, dia- meter 35 millimetres ; 50 francs, weight 16* 129 '03 grams, diameter 28 millimetres 20 francs, weight 6'451'61 grams, diameter 21 millimetres; 10 francs, weight 3'225'80 grams, diameter 19 millimetres ; 5 francs, weight 1 -612-90 grams, diameter 17 millimetres. The different States will receive all the above coins when not worn to one-half per cent, or the devices effaced. ARTICLE 3. The contracting Governments bind themselves not to coin, or permit to be coined, silver pieces of five francs, except in the following weight, standard, tolerance, and diameter. The weight of each 5 franc piece shall be 25 grams ; its tolerance in weight, three thousandths ; its fineness, 900 ; its tolerance in standard, two thousandths ; and its diameter, 37 milli- metres. They will receive the above pieces at par, unless reduced one per cent, by wear or the device is worn off. (These arrangements were based on the established ratio of 15 to 1.) Articles 4 and 9 arrange the size and fineness of the smaller silver pieces which are not full-value coins, the quantities of these which each State is to issue, and the extent to which they are to be received as legal tender between individuals and at the public banks. 152 Appendix C. The remaining clauses refer to further details, one of which provides that any other nation can join the Convention by accepting its obligations and adopting the monetary system of the Union in regard to its gold and silver coins. (Under this article Greece afterwards joined). The treaty was first made for fifteen years, ex- piring in 1880, but it was arranged in 1878 that it should be continued five years longer. Since 1885 it has been continued from year to year on the footing of a year's notice being given of the inten- tion of any of the Powers to withdraw. APPENDIX D. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY CONFERENCE, 1867. This Conference was convened by the French Government, on the suggestion of the leading men who originated the Latin Union. The object is indicated in the following sentences from the French Minister's circular to the United States Government proposing the Conference. " After having brought about the disappearance of diver- gencies of which they recognised the inconveni- ences, the delegates of France, of Belgium, of Italy, and of Switzerland, seeing a population of seventy millions of souls thenceforth endowed with the same monetary system, must quite naturally have been led to fix attention on an interest more general. Without entering on the examination of a question which it was not their mission to solve, they expressed in the name of their Governments the desire to see the Union, as yet restricted to four countries, become the germ of a Union more extended, and of the establishment of a general monetary circulation among all civilised States." The Conference met in Paris, and was attended by representatives from all the leading nations, including England, which was represented by 154 Appendix D. Mr. Thomas Graham, Director of the Eoyal Mint, and Mr. Eivers Wilson, attached to the Treasury. Mr. Eivers Wilson stated "That while consenting to be represented in this Conference, the English Government has found it necessary to place the most careful restriction upon its delegates ; their part is simply to listen to the different arguments, to study the situation as deve- loped in discussion, and to report to their Government. Thus far they have found no difficulty in voting in favour of all the propositions adopted by the Confer- ence, because their principles agreed with the system now in force in England." The following extracts from the final report of the Conference show fully its main decision : " By a most singular coincidence, when only two out of twenty States had gold for a standard, your Confer- ence decided upon it for the standard, with silver as a transitory companion ; and this was done because the double standard was necessary in certain States that were used to it, or where silver was the exclusive standard. " This valuable unanimity on a question so import- ant, tending to perfect the monetary system of the Convention of 1865, will certainly influence public opinion, and certain men in the interior of States who may have retained any doubt on the question. "In thus adopting gold as a basis for the desired union, it was only in a common denominator above the franc that it was possible to realise the useful equa- tions and frequent coincidences in the systems to be brought together ; for, in gold coins, the very minute International Monetary Conference, 1867. 155 differences could not be distinguished with precision by the process of coinage, and already the mere dis- tance of five francs may be sometimes difficult to ex- press sufficiently in the external form of the monetary discs. " The weight of five francs in gold of nine-tenths fineness, the standard which was unanimously ap- proved, and also one of the conditions of the Convention of 1865, then appeared to be the proper denominator for the basis of the desired assimilation between the monetary systems of the twenty States represented. . "If the germs of our collective, enlightened, and benevolent aspirations, freed from the unpleasant compensations that sometimes attend the most seduc- tive reforms, in which we are all animated by the true spirit of civilisation and modern progress, shall come to fructify around you, I hope, gentlemen, you will pleasurably recall the honourable memories of the part you have taken in these delicate scientific discus- sions, with the satisfaction of their joint pursuit, under a presidency so memorable (Prince Napoleon), and with a facility and harmony as perfect as that of delegates from a single nation in its ordinary deliberations." The displacement of silver was thus decreed, and pour-parlers between the different Govern- ments were begun with the view of carrying out the decision arrived at. We get a glimpse of these in their relation to our own country from a speech made on the 6th August, 1869, by Mr. Kobert Lowe (Lord Sherbrooke), then Chancellor of the Exchequer, in which he said : " Well, the French Government have put themselves 156 Appendix D. into communication with us. They have written to me on the subject of international coinage, and wish to know what steps the Government of England are will- ing to take in the matter And so I ventured to say, in answer to the question, that it would be impossible to hold out hopes of assimilation until France made up her mind to give up the silver standard and have only a gold standard; and I am happy to say that France is favourable to the abandon- ment of her silver standard, as I gather from the report of a commission on the subject which I have received." The Franco-German war intervened, and the curtain for a time dropped on the monetary drama. When it again rose it was Germany, not France, that was seen making the first move. APPENDIX E. GERMAN MONETARY LEGISLATION. The following is extracted from Exhibit A, pre- sented by Baron von Thielmann at the first session of the International Monetary Conference of 1881. I. The introduction into Germany of the single gold standard in the place and stead of the silver standard, which prevailed up to 1871 in most of the German States, was enacted by the laws of 4th December, 1871, and 9th July, 1873. The mark of the gold is the ^-fe part of a pound of gold (of 500 grammes) at nine- tenths fine, and is coined in gold pieces of 20, 10, and 5 marks. The right of private coinage exists in so far that every individual is entitled to require the coinage for his own account of gold pieces of 20 marks upon payment of the cost of mintage at the rate of three marks on the pound of fine gold. The coins of silver, nickel, and copper perform the functions of subsidiary coins. In the Imperial silver coins (pieces of five and three marks, and of one mark, and of 50 and 20 pfennings) 100 marks are coined from the pound of fine silver ; the proportion of alloy being of 900 parts of silver to 100 parts of copper, 90 marks in coined silver weighing a pound. Under the law, as it stands, the sum total of Imperial silver coin must not exceed 10 marks per capita of the population of the Empire. No one can be compelled to accept payment of a sum exceeding twenty marks in Imperial silver coins. On. 158 Appendix E. the other hand, these coins are received in payment, with- out limitation as to amount, by the Treasuries of the Empire and of the German States; and may, at pleasure, be exchanged for gold ^at certain offices officially designated for that purpose. As it was not possible at once to withdraw from circulation the former coins of the different States, and to introduce immediately the new Imperial coinage the laws in question established, as a transitory con- dition, a system analogous to that of the double stand- ard, and under which the old coins of the State were recognised as legal tender, at the rate of one thaler for three marks of gold, a rate based upon the proportion of 1 to 15 for the relative value of the two metals. . . The sales of silver were suspended in May, 1879, and have not been resumed since then. The sale of these 7,104,896 pounds of fine silver (comprising the 2,034 pounds above mentioned, as delivered to the Mints upon payment of the value thereof), was made as shown in the table on the next page : IV. If the provisions of the present monetary statutes should be completely carried out, and if, by reason thereof, the sales of silver should be resumed, the Im- perial Government would need to dispose of only, so much of the 410 or 500 millions of marks in thalers now in circulation, as well as of the bar silver which it has held since 1879, as might not be required for the augmentation of the circulation of subsidiary silver coins. German Monetary Legislation. 159 co co c ^4 ,H OS 00 >t) 5 A CO t>. . !> O> O CO O CO r-l p CXJ O Tt< COOOOOSiOCD T}< O CM CO OS O CS Oi ^* 05 CO CO 1^ O CD it. Sco" rjT i-T co" of jc>T O r-H il CO (N t- O CO -g 46. ,, statistics of, 14, 215. Prices, market, 116. Production, cost of, 45. ,, of silver, 215. Proposed import duty on silver in India, 143. Protectionism, charge of, 37. Protection to Indian industries, 93, 98. Ratio of gold and silver, 13, 14, 41. Reserves, Bank of England, 16, 37. Royal Commission on gold and silver, 138, 206. ,, the depression in trade, 138. Royal proclamation fixing price of guinea, 134, 188. Rupee, Indian, 29, 102, 113. Sales of German silver money, 15, 113, 157. Seyd, Ernest, estimates, 19. ,, ,, predictions, 201. Sherbrooke, Lord, 45, 52, 54, 62. Sherman Act, American, 140, 143, 181. Sidgwick, Professor of, Cambridge, 131. Silver : difficulty hindering free trade, 99. East always absorbing, 106. London market for, 31. manufacturing in the East developed by fall in, 89. mines, Nevada and California, 22. monetary confusion resulting from present instability of, 110, 144. Pound, S. Dana Horton, 132. production of, 215. proposed import duty on, in India, 143. quantity of, in ornaments and coin, 127. Royal Commission on gold, and 138, 206. variations in price of, 15, 147, 215. Sismondi, 66. Smith, Adam, 58, 63. Standard Stability of value in, 53. ,, for gold coin, 133, 135, 192. Standard of value, money a, 52. ,, ,, importance of unity in, 32, 60, 110, 114. Standards, battle of the, by M. Emile de Laveleye, 57. Statistics of precious metals, 14, 215. Statute of 1816, 186. Store of value, money a, 52, 54. Suggestions of Indian government, 141, 173. Supplies, variations in the, of Gold and Silver, 14, 23. Suspension of sales of silver by Germany, 16. 222 Index. Tooke and Newmarch, 57. Trade contraction, 70. expansion, 70. of India with China and Japan, 89, 96. Uniformity, former, in relative value of gold and silver, 11. United States : Demonetisation of silver, 137, 179. and France, willingness of, to join hi bimetallic agreement, 19. Value of money, the, 68. Variations hi exchanges with silver standard countries, 15, 30. price of silver, 15, 147, 215. ,, the supplies of Gold and Silver, 14, 23. THIS BOOK IS DUE ON THE LAST DATE STAMPED BELOW AN INITIAL FINE OF 25 CENTS WILL BE ASSESSED FOR FAILURE TO RETURN THIS BOOK ON THE DATE DUE. THE PENALTY WILL INCREASE TO SO CENTS ON THE FOURTH DAY AND TO $1.OO ON THE SEVENTH DAY 9SaT65CD : RFV**F^ I r , r\cv^ LI |_L MM 3 -65-1 3 M ftOV2S1966?6 *CiVED ** 4 **6*rt * ' M r f LOAN DEPr. LD 21-100m-7,'33 fc*