ilBliliiiii mm |i!|! m THE PRESENT STATE OF IN HF.GAUD TO AGRICULTURE, TRADE, AND FINANCE; WITH A COMPARISON OF THE PROSPECTS OF ENGLAND AND FRANCE. By JOSEPH LOWE, Esq. S^cconU ([Edition, WITH VARIOUS ADDITIONS AND EMENDATIONS. LONDON: PRINTED FOR LONGMAN, HURST, RKKS, ORME, AND BROWN, PATERNOSTKR-nOW } .1. RICHARDSON, 91. ROYAL EXCHANGE; AND MESSRS. CONSTABLE AND CO., EDINBURGH. 1823. London : Priiiteil liy A. & R. Spottiswoode. New - Si I cci-S Effect of a rise of prices abroad on prices at home - 10.> Extent of such effect previous to 1809 - - - 10(1 The same after 1809 - - - - - ibid. Summary of the preceding - - - - 107 Considerations addressed to the advocates of the Bank 108 ■ to the supporters of the Bul- lion Committee - - - - - 110 The Exemption Act viewed in connection with the events of the war - - - - - 11:^ Would the exemption from each payments, if not re- sorted to in 1797, have been adopted at a subse- quent period ?----- ibid. How far was it a source of financial aid ? - - 11(> Mr. Peel's bill ; its effect over-rated - - - 117 a Xviii CONTENTS, CHAPTER V. Our Agiiadlrirc. Section I. Historical Skclch. Page Our Corn trade previous to the Revolution of 1688 - 119 Bounty on export in 1689 ... - 120 Prices stationary during the reign of George II.; rise after 1764 - - - - - - 122 Act of 1773 123 The late Wars - - - - - - 124- The peace of 1814 .... - 125 Fluctuations since 1792, divided into periods: from 1793 to 1800 ; from 1800 to 1809 ; from 1809 to 1814 126 From 1814 to 1819; from 1819 to the present year - 129 Tabular statement of our crops, and average prices since 1790 - - - - - 131 Causes of these fluctuations: the effect of our Corn laws greatly over-rated - - - - 132 Causes of rise after 1763 - - - - 133 during the war - - - 134 Causes of fall since the peace - - - 135 Additional hands employed in tillage - 136 Section II. Situatiott and Prospects of our Agriadturists. Annual produce and rental of Great Britain and Ireland 140 Magnitude of the depression since the peace - 141 Present situation of our landlords and farmers - 143 Consequence of a general reduction of farming charges 145 Comparison of our present prices with those prior to 1793 147 Effect on the price of corn of increasing population - 148 Consumers may increase without raising prices - 150 Effect of a bad season - - . - I'Jl Less felt in peace than in war - - - 153 Reaction of the market price of corn on the cost of its production - - - - _ 254 Mode of such reaction in war - - _ 155 ■ in peace - - . 156 CONTENTn. XIX rage- How far understood by land-surveyors; by farmers; by the Agricultural Committee of 1821 - - 157 Prospect of prices ; — Circumstances conducive to a rise 1 58 Circumstances which render a low price probable - HU Prospect of relief to farmers; tithe; poor-rate - 163 Section III. A protecting Dtiti/. A populous country not necessarily expensive - 1(56 Comparative burdens on French and British agriculture 168 Comparative rental of the two countries - - 173 Are our manufactures benefited by protecting duties? 174? Danger of an over-extension of tillage - - 17G The Corn Committee of 1813; fallacyof their arguments 178 Objections to a high import duty _ . - ibid. Tendency of our legislation to ultimate freedom of trade 180 Physical advantages of particular countries - 181 -~— — • of England - - - J 82 A free import of corn; arguments for and against it - 183 CHAPTER VI. Poor-rate. Origin of our Poor-law- system - - - 186 Its progressive extension - - - - 188 The late Wars - - - - - 190 Amount of poor-rate in the different years from 1813 to 1822 ..--.- 191 Reduction since 1818 .... 192 Workhouses - - - - - 193 Management of the poor in Scotland and France - 191. Poor-rate considered as a tax - - - 197 Its amount estimated in corn - - - 198 Comparative number of paupers since 1688 - - 199 Wages paid by poor-rate .... /^/^/, Particularly in Agricultural districts - - 201 Computed amount of the rental of land and houses assessed to poor-rate .... 202 Comparative comfort of the labouring classes at different periods ..... oqS Is our poor-law system beneficial to the lower orders ? 2(X> Repeal of taxes on the necessaries of life - - ibid. a 2 XX COMTENTS. CHAPTER VII. Popnlalion. Pag*- Penury of early ages .... 212 EIFcct of increasing population ... 213 (iradual transition from penury to comfort - - ibid. Is the amount of subsistence limitetl by physical causes? 216 Average increase of population ... 217 Comparison of the present with former periods in history 219 Leading ideas of Mr. Malthus and Mr. S. Gray - 220 Progressive increase of population in Europe; — effects of climate and soil - - - - 224 Effect of easy communication ... 225 Effect of the Protestant Religion - - - 226 Population per square mile; Holland and England - 227 Austria, Prussia, and Poland ; France - - 229 Chief towns of France and England; their comparative population - - - - - 231 Ireland; Italy; Spain .... ibid. Connexion between the increase of population and in- crease of national wealth .... 233 Effect of increasing population on the wealth of indivi- duals ...... 234 Comparison of public burdens in different parts of Eu- rope ...... 237 Rural population ; its stationary condition - - 238 Wealth of town population .... 239 Subsistence more easy of acquisition as society advances 24'2 Cultivation becomes extended throughout a diversity of soil and climate .... 2-t4 Progress of Agricultural improvements - - 245 The comforts of the lower orders increase as society ad- vances ...... 246 Population ought to be left to its natural course - ib\d. Statistical table of Europe in 1823; viz. the comparative taxation and population of different countries - 248 Their surprising increase since the 16th century - 251 Prospect of continued increase on the Continent - 252 In England a still greater prospect ... 253 CONTENTS. XXI CHAPTER VIIT. On the National llevemie and Capital. Page Property annually created in Great Britain and Ireland 255 Tabic of our i)resent taxable income ... 257 Its increase since 1792 ... - - 259 Connexion between the increase of our numbers, and that of our national income . . - - 260 How far is the former a basis for the computation of the latter? ....-- 262 Fluctuations of income since 1792 ... 263 An estimate of them attempted ... 264? Tabular statements of our national revenue since 1792 - 267 Our public burdens ; their proportion to our resources since 1792 . - - . - - 269 France; her national income compared with that of England 270 CHAPTER IX. ItJJ'ccl oj' the War on Ptopciiij^ Individual and National. Difference of opinion among political economists - 274? Mr. J. B. Say, ]\Ir. S. (iray, Mr. Ilicardo - - ibid. Losses to our productive industry in the beginning of the war -....- 277 Burdens incurred during the war . . - 279 Deduction from the apparent amount of these burdens 280 Taxation of other countries - - - - ibid. Our War taxes ; Tithe ; Poor-rate . - . 281 The National Debt . . - . . 283 Effect of a state of war on the habits of individuals - 284- Losses on the Transition from War to Peace - - ibid. Magnitude of the change ... - 285 Similar distress in foreign countries ... 287 Temporary revival of activity in 1818 . - - 288 Our probable situation had peace been preserved - 289 The late wars examined by moral considerations - 290 Comparative estimate of our taxable income in 1813 and 1823 - - - - - - 295 Exphmatory Remarks on this estimate - . - 296 Reduction of income since the peace . - - 290 XXII 4;oNTENTH. rage Comparative pressure of our burdens in war and peace 299 Effect oil our public I)(>bt of tlie rise in tlie value of money ■..-.. 'M)0 Have our public men, since 179'}, understood our finan- cial situation ?.---- 302 Mr. Pitt - - - - - - 303 The successors of Mr. Pitt .... 305 Tlic Opposition ..... 308 Strictures on the education of our public men - - 309 Their conduct of the late Wars - - - 311 . ■ ■ of our internal affairs ... 313 CHAPTER X. I'aliu: of Money. Section I. Fluctuations i7i the Value of Money. Tracts published on this subject - - - 316 Historical sketch of such fluctuations ... 317 Effects of a state of War - - - - 318 Can fluctuations be prevented in future? - - 320 Causes which affect the value of money - - 321 Supply of specie from the mines - _ . Hid. Circulation of bank paper - - - . 323 Supply of agricultural produce ... 324? Probable effects of a state of war ... 326 Injurious consequences of these fluctuations - - 327 Particularly on annuitants - - . - - 328 Section 11. Plan for lessening the Injurij from Fluctiuition^ and giving a uniform J'alue to Money Incomes. A table of reference for time contracts - - 333 Effect of the proposed plan on the labouring classes - 336 Effcet of such a plan on agriculture ... 338 on tithe ... - 339 ■ on the public funds and govern- ment annuitants ..... 341 Objections ant^wercd .... - 343 Concludimr remarks .... - 344. CONTENTS. XXIII CHAPTER XL Our Finances. Page The National Debt - - - - - 347 Fluctuations in the price of stock since 1720 - - 34-9 Mr. Pitt's administration .... 250 Reduction of the Five per cents. ... 352 Our other financial measures since 1815 - - 353 The Sinking Fund ; its limited operation - - 355 Compound interest a delusion - - - . 357 Advantages of a low rate of interest of money - - 359 Objections to a large Sinking Fund - - . 350 Estimate of our annual expenditure - . . 352 Stockholders ; distinction between permanent and tem- porary depositors ----- 364- Comparative Taxation of England and France - - 368 Section" II. Our Prospects in Commerce and Finance. Probability of continued peace - - - 371 Causes of war that no longer exist - - - 373 Our prospect of augmented resources - - 37'!- Computed increase of our national income - 378 Its surprising increase in the course of last century - 379 Parallel of the resources of England and France - 381 Section III. Vieias of Finance suggested by our Situation and Prusj)(rts. How far is taxation a cause of embarrassment ? - 387 Tabular statement of our taxes - . - - 389 Examples of injury from taxation ; in the distillery ; insurance ; shipbuilding . - - - 390 Relief that would arise from u reduction of taxes - 392 Objections answered ----- 395 M. Nccker ; his plan of fnumcc - - - ^^7 t.ONTINTH. Pagr The Qufslion ol'a hnuill Annual Loan in lieu (»lTaxcfc State of the nionied interest - - - - 4CX) Transmission of capital to foreign countries - - 401 Would the proposed loan affect the rate of interest? 'K)4- Would it attcct the price of stocks ? - - 4-^^ Limitation to borrowing - - - " ^^^ The bill for transferring half-pay and pensions into long annuities ----- ''"■^ Mr. Pitt; his ability in finance - - - 4-11 The period from 178 !• to 1793 - - - 4-1'^ Conclusion ; summary of the work - - - ^^^ Subjects which remain to be treated - - - 415 CONTENTS OF THE APPENDIX. CHAPTER IL T^e late Wars. Our war expenditure in the form of tabular statements [1 J The war of 1793, distinguished from that of 1803 [3] A siniilar statement of our exports, and an explanation of the custom-house term, " official value" - [4] Our exports greater since 1814< than during the war [5] Decline in the price of manufactures since 1818 - [7] The present prices of manufactures compared to those of the reign of King William - - - iltid. Taxation ; its effect on trade _ _ - [8] CHAPTER III. Hise of Prices during the War. Lower orders : Table of their family expenditure since 1792; — the country labourer - - - [9] The town mechanic - . - - ibid. rONTEVTS. \xv ■The niidtlle and higher classes: similar fluctuations in their fiimily expenditure ... ["10] Proportion borne by each Jiead of expence, (food, clothing, and lodging,) to the total of family expen- diture - - - - - - [11] Comparative situation of the lower orders in war and peace - - - - - -[12] Effect on housekeeping, of a rise in the price of corn [12] .. — in the rate of labour [IS] . of a depreciation in our paper currency - - - " [l-"^] Annuitants on mortgage - - - - [I'^l CHAPTER IV. Currency atid Exchange. On the amount of Bank of England notes in circulation [15] Uncertainty of inferences from such amount - [16] Fluctuations in the circulation of Bank of England Notes [17] Circulation of country banks ... f/;/V/. The exemption from cash payments: its effects -. [IS] The time of its operation .... [19] Discounts: their increase explained - - - [19] The rate of interest ; its rise prevented by the exemp- tion act ..... ['20] This act considered as an economizing expedient - ibid. Remarks on the Bullion Committee - - [21] Questions at issue between their supporters and op- ponents .-.--- [23] Connection between the circumstances of our agricul- turists and the circulation of country banks - [24] The power of banks over-rated ... [25] Inefficacy of an exemption from cash payments in peace ..--.. ibid. Mr. Peel's Bill ..... [2(j] Publications on the subject of exchange; INIr. J. R. M'CuUoch ...... ibid. CHAPTER V. Our Agriculture. Effect of increasing population on the price of corn - [29] Not understood by the Agricultural Committee of 1821 [30] National disadvantage of a high price of corn - ibid. XXV i CONTENTS. I'age Subsistence not enhanced by increase of population - [32 J Uncertainty of speculative opinions - - ibid. Arguments in favour of a free trade in corn, by Mr. Bannatyne, Colonel Torrens, and Mr. M'Culloch - [33] Computation of Poor-rate and Tithe - - [3.5] Connection between increase of population and increase of tithe - - - - - - [36] The same in regard to the rent of land - - [36] Comparative burdens on British and foreign agriculture [39 J A protecting duty ; evidence of Mr. Tooke - ibid. Reasons in support of that evidence - - [^O] Competition of Continental agriculturists - - [4-1] Probable limitation of our corn imports in peace - ibid. Opinion of Mr. llicardo . - _ _ [43] A protecting duty; ought it to be suspended in a dear season? ..---- [44] Observations of Mr. S. Gray on the Corn Trade - [45] The case of Tenants on lease, and of Debtors on mort- gage -..-.. [45] The question of interference by courts of justice - [46] Dr, Smith on agricultural improvers . - - [47] Value of land during last century ... ibid. Price of wheat on the continent and in England pre- vious to 1793 - - - - - [48] Average prices of our corn in 1822 - - - [49] Exports and imports of Coi*n since 1697 - - ihid. The Agricultural Report of 1821; abstract of its con- tents -..--- ibid. Remarks on that Report - - - - [51] Corn law of 1822; abstract of its provisions - - [53] Additional labour bestowed on tillage since 1814 - \.5o\ CHAPTER VI. Our Poor-rate. Tabular statements of poor-rate for England and Wales [57] The same for the metropolis - . - . [58] Highway, church and county rate - - - [59] Report of 15th July 1822, on the poor-rate returns - ibid- 10 CONTENTS. XXVll CHAPTER VII. Popidatioii. Page Employment ; its subdivision as society advances - [60] Its minute division in a great city - - - [51] National income apportioned among different classes - [62] Population ; ratio of its increase in different stages, as society advances ... - - [63] The mercantile or manufacturing stage - - [64'] Effect of the enlargement of farms . - . [65] Effect of machinery . - - . - ibid. Great increase of population in the present age - [66] Proportion of marriages to the whole population - [67] Deaths : decrease in their proportion - - [67] Counties of England and Wales ; their comparative extent ..-.-. [68] ^— — — — productive power [69] ■ — their rank in den- sity of population . . . _ [70] Census of 1821 ; the increase since 1811, exhibited by counties . - - . . [71] Increase of our principal towns ... [72] Distribution of our population into classes, and com- parative numbers of each . - . - ibid. Superior increase of town population - - [733 In what manner do population returns indicate an in- crease of national wealth ? - - - - [74-] Census of England in 1377 - . - ibid. CHAPTER Vin. Otir National Revenue. Is our consumption equal to our production, or how far is there an annual addition to national income ? - [75] A table of our annual consumption - - - [77] Proportion of national income exempt from taxation - [78] Case of Ireland . - - - • ibid. of France ----- [79] National capital ; estimate of it in 1792, 1812, 1.S22 - [82] Public burdens in the present year (1823) discriminated into taxes, poor-rate, and tithe - - - [85] rovTrvTs. CHAPTER X. Fbictuatiojis in Mo7icy. Page Abstract of Sir G. Shuckburgh's table - - [85] Comparison by Arthur Young, of prices in the 17th and 18th centuries - - - - [86] Progressive prices of several articles of manufacture ; of horses and cattle ... - [87] General progression of prices since the 13th century - [88] Annual consumption of gold and silver computed - [89] Comparative rate of prices in France and England - [90] M'Culloch (Mr. J. R.) on the price of corn throughout Europe [92] Expense of a country labourer's family, and of one of the middle classes ----- [93] Constituents of a table of national consumption - [94-] Farther remarks on a table of consumption - - [95] The table adapted to farmers on lease - - [97] ' ■ ' to the lessees of mines - - ibid. • to clergymen . . - [98] Objections answered - . - - ibid. Letter from a Hampshire farmer - _ - [99] Mr. Tooke on " high and low prices since 1792" - [100] CHAPTER XI. Sinking fund ; the supplies which constitute it - [101] The nominal Sinking fund - . . - [102] Comparison of our present burdens with those of 1792 [103] The Malt Tax - - - - - [104] Price of commodities a century ago - - ibid. Backward state of France as described by Mr. S. Gray [105] CHAPTER I. Events of the War vietved in Connection 'doith oiir National Resources. In appropriating a portion of our volume to mili- tary events, our object is to direct the reader's attention to the effects produced by them on our finances and national industry: — to enlarge on the occurrences of a campaign or on the policy of cabi- nets, would be, in a great measure, foreign to our pur})ose. In some respects, however, the two de- partments of enquiry are connected, the effect of our military operations having been repeatedly felt by our exchequer, and requiring of course frequent notice in the subsequent pages. It seems advise- able, consequently, that our reasoning should be preceded by a brief sketch of the events of the war ; an outline to which reference may be made from the subsequent chapters, whenever we shall have occasion to allude to the connexion between the state of our finances and the aspect of a campaign. Such a narrative, however cursory, will necessarily lead us over beaten ground ; but we are not with- out ho])es of introducing, particularly in regard to France, occasional remarks that are not altogether familiar to the public. War o/" 1793. — Nothing wonUl have induced Mr. Pitt to take part in tiie coahtion against France, u 2 Jf'nr of179S. except a Iiopi' llmt the contest would have l)een hroui^ht to an early conclusion, and himself" left at liberty to pursue those measures of finance which had begun to wear so promising an aspect. His apprehension of France could be only of a j)olitical nature ; a dread of the example of insub- ordination gaining ground, and of rank and j)r()- perty becoming endangered. In a military sense, France was far from formidable ; her army, in 1792*, did not exceed the usual peace establish- ment of 130,000 men, and its strength was greatly impaired by the emigration of its principal officers, as well as by the general relaxation attendant on a continental peace of thirty years. Her navy ha\- ing occupied the attention of government during and after the American war, was in a better state than usual ; but its efficiency was impaired by the general disorder of the country, and its aspect was certainly far from offensive. Under these circumstances our government, though in intimate communication with the powers that had taken up arms against France, delayed for some time joining the coalition. The recall of our ambassador from Paris was postponed till the insur- rections of autumn 1792, and the subversion of the royal authority ; nor did our preparations for war commence till towards the end of the year. This caution on our part, and the impetuosity of the ruling faction in France, caused the declaration of war to proceed in the first instance from Paris, and created a general belief in this country that the French were the aggi'essors. A speedy termination in favour of the allied powers was promised as well by general appearances as by the early events of • Joraini sur les grandes Operations Militaires, Vol. Y. IVar of 179.3. 3 tlie war, the Frencii being soon repulsed from tlie Dutch frontier, and some time alter from the Netherlands, wliile tlieir intestine divisions rose to a height that tlu-catened the downfall of the repub- lican system. A short time, however, sufficed to show the fallacy of judging from appearances, and of listening to representations so partial as those of the emigrants. The great majority of the nation, without cherishing either personal hostility to the Bourbons or schemes of foreign conquest, were strongly attached to the Revolution. They had long felt the want of a representative assembly, and regarded themselves as checked in the career of honourable ambition by the preference shown to the privileged classes. Without any distinct concep- tion of the checks requisite to good government, they entertained a sanguine hope that the revolu- tion was about to prove a remedy for all their grievances. In such a state of national feeling, the resistance to invasion would probably have been equal, what- ever had been the result of the intestine divisions of France. Had the Jacobui party been kept under by the Girondists, the strength of the country would still have been called forth ; the property of emigrants confiscated ; circulation given to the assignats, and military levies enforced on a large scale. It was in the autumn of 1/93, and in tlie early part of 179f^, that these potent leveis weie made to display all their energy. They sent forth armies, which, without being so numerous in the field as was generally imagined, were assined of an ample suj^ply of recruits ; an assurance that justified the new plan of rendering a campaign a reiteration of attacks, on the calculation, that, whe- ther successful or Jiot, the coinilry which shonhl he B 'Z ft 4. //7//o/17f)3. able to call the greatest mimbers into the field, would eventually triumph. Such, with a few qua- lifications, were the operations of lyo^ and 1791 : o})erations in which the national im])etuosity M'as called into full display; but the command being fi'cquently placed in unskilful hands, the lives of men were exposed with unexampled rashness. The result of continued sacrifices on the one side, and of feeble generalship, of deficient concert, on the other, was that, in the early ])art of 1795, a total change took place in the as})ect of the war. By that time, France had acquired both the Austrian Netherlands and the Dutch provinces, was on the point of concluding peace with Prussia and Spain, and reckoned only Austria and England as her opponents. From this time forward, we may believe with confidence, that Mr. Pitt deeply regretted that France had been attacked, and the nation driven to exertions so pernicious to its assailants. He saw that revolutionary contagion was no longer to be dreaded, the credulity of the French, their absurd extremes, their repeated changes, their sacri- fice of one party to the other, having brought com- plete discredit on their politics. His objections to peace, very different from those in 179'2, were now of a military character : — to negotiate with France would have been to acknowledge inabihty to resist her ; to leave the Netherlands in her hands, would have been to concede that against which we had contended for a century. He determined, there- fore, to continue the war, with the aid of Austria ; and the exertions of France might have been equalled, perhaps surpassed, by the two allied go- vernments, had they possessed the knowledge which they afterwards acquired ; — had England directed • ' 9 IVar of 1703. 5 her chief resources to continental warfare, and had tlie Austrians opened their eyes to their errors in tactics. The numbers of the French were now less overwhehiiijig than in the time of the assignats ; but their efficiency was greatly increased, tlieir sol- diers had become well disciplined, and a number of intelligent officers had been formed. Their sys- tem of reiterated attack was continued; the national ardour was kept in full exercise ; and to the auda- city of the first years of the revolution was added, under the command of such men as Bonaparte, Moreau, Kleber, Hoche, Desaix, the advantage of scientific combination. It is to superiority of ge- neralship more than to superiority of numbers, that we should attribute the reverses of the Austrians in 1796 and 1797, followed by a peace (Campo Formio) of which the preliminaries were signed when three armies were in march to their capital. What in these early years of the war was our situation in regard to financial supplies ? A state of war creates a sudden demand for money, by su})eradding what may be termed the mercantile operations of government to those of individuals. The call for arms, clothing, and military stores, forms a new demand on the manufacturing in- dustry of the country, while tiie drain of men for the public service, enhances both wages and salaries. On the part of individuals, there takes place a decrease in certain branches of industry, a relinquishment of undertakings which can be carried on only by cheaj) labour, or a low interest of money ; but the diminution, in one sense, is by no means {)roj)ortioned to the increase in tiie other. Hence, a rise in the rate of interest, and a difficulty in borrowing, even at an advanced premium. Of B 3 6 War (>/' 171'3- siic'li (liHiciiltics, anil ol" tlic expedients ad()])tctl to meet thein, we liave had repeated examples, in our history, (hiring the hist century and a half. It was in the reign of king VVilliani that England first took a })art in continental war, on a scale of great and contiinied expcnce ; and that reign was ac- cordingly the icraof tile ini])osition of the land-tax, of the establishment of the bank of England, and of the first currency of its jyaper. It unfortunately happened that the demand for money in the early years of tlie wars of the present age, was coincident with unfavourable seasons, our crops, both in 1794 and 179«5, being insuffi- cient for our consumption. Hence, a necessity to export coin lor the purchase of subsistence, as well as for military pui'poses ; and hence those embar- rassments so severely felt in the mercantile world during 1793, 4, 5, 6, and from which we were not effectually relieved until 1797* when there occurred both a diminution of oiu' continental expenditure, and a general acceptance, at home, of bank paper for coin. At this time, England stood alone in the conflict, and the state of our finances was far from satisfactory ; but our navy had in the course of the year (1797) achieved a double triumph, and the war becoming strictly maritime, our attitude, like that of France in 1794, showed all the advantage possessed by a nation, when combining its resources on its proper element. The confidence thus inspired, and the spirit roused by tlie extravagant ambition of the French government, enabled i\Ir. Pitt to meet our pecuniary difficulties, by a recourse to the plan which we shall developc presently, — that of raising supplies within the year ; a })lan to which, still more than to the substitution of paper for coin, 11 IVar o/'iyOo. 7 was owing tlie surprizing increase that took place in our financial receipts. Tiie year 171)^ will long be remembered bv those who distinguish particular e})oclis in a great contest, as one of favourable commerce, of improved exchanges, of an abundant harvest, anil of relief liom tlie dread of invasion. The Frencli, discou- raged by our naval array, and by the failure of I heir expedition against Ireland, made a tacit ac- knowledgment of the ho])elessness of an attack on England, by directing their disposable force to Egypt. The absence of this army, and our vic- tory at Aboukir, revived the hopes of the Aus- trians, who regarded the existing peace as a truce, and who have, throughout the present age, shown themselves so prompt to second our efforts, and to take up arms against France. The year 1799. — We come now to what is termed the third coalition, or the third time that the allied ])owers commenced operations by land in the hope of either changing the French government, or re- covering a portion of lost territory. In adverting to these remarkable aeras in the contest, it is fit to recollect that the aggressions were not on the part of France, and that, with the exception of 179'f Amiais. ill oj)j)osition to a confederacy, and bafiling, in the case of each, tlie confident calculation of politicians. France, in 171i3, could not, in the 0})inion (jf these persons, avoid sinking imder the coalition ; Eng- land, wlien left alone, in 1797> had, in their view, no alternative but a speedy ])eace. They were more correct in asserting that no war had aflbrded an example of such sacrifices ; of men on the part of France, of money on the part of England. The losses of each seemed of a nature to produce ex- liaustion, yet each continued capable of prolonging or renewing the conflict. Each had obtained bril- liant success, and added largely to its territorial possessions ; but the acquisitions of France, at least in the Netherlands, were more compact, and more calculated to add strength to the state, than our dazzling but insecure conquests in the East and West Indies. Our Situation at the Peace of Amiens. — What, it may be asked, were the chief difl'erences, in our condition at the peace of 1802 and that of 1814? The financial and commercial evils that have since pressed so heavily on us, existed in 1802, but in a very mitigated form. The interest of our public debt, (18,000,000/.) was great, but not enormous; our total expenditure, had peace been confirmed, woidd not have much exceeded 30,000,000/. a year. The value of our currency, though shaken at a particular period, (1800 and 1801,) had been rein- stated without much injury to the public ; and our customers on the opposite shore of the Atlan- tic, though affected by the transition of Europe from war to peace, were by no means so disabled from paying for our exports as at the peace of 1814. Still our agriculturists felt the budden change from War of 1803, 11 high to low prices ; our merchants were embar- rassed by the surrender of the conquered colonies, and had the reduction of our military establishment been permanent, we should have exj)erienced, in 1802, no small share of the embarrassment of late years : it would have been similar at least to that so laith fully described by Sir W. Temple, as affect- ing the productive industry of Holland, after the peace of 1648. These complaints, however, had hardly assumed consistency, when the })ublic were roused to new alarms : in France, a ruler whom no power could satisfy; in England, a ministry who followed, in- stead of leading the public voice, were respectively the authors of an abruj)t renewal of war. Seldom has an appeal to arms been made with less of a direct motive or definite object : Malta was too insignificant to form a ground of war; the real cause was of a general nature, and to be sought in the encroachments of Bonaparte during the interval of peace, in the resentment roused by his aggression on Switzerland, and the obstacles op- posed to our trade with France. Our ministers could not consider the moment favourable for at- tempting to recover the independence of the con- tinent ; they acted in concert with none of the great powers, and the experience of the past was altogether adverse to hopes founded on a coalition. They knew, however, that our financial resources were large, that the chances of a naval contest were in our favour, and that we should in any event prevent the increase of the enemy's marine. War ()/' ISO'S. — During two years the contest was strictly maritime, and the demand on our cir- culating mediinn, for subsidies or the purchase of 12 Jn/r of 180.1. com l)('in«j^ slight, our ])a|)er currency maintaiiictl its credit. The ])ubnc attention was closely fixed on the project or ])retended j)roject of invasion. But in IHO.*}, the growing discontent of the Russian cabinet with I3ona])arte, and the well-known hos- tility of Austria, induced our government to form a new coalition. Our allies began the war with san- guine hopes, but found it vain to attack a great military state, conducted by a single liead. The result would have been alarming even to this coun- try, had it not, by a remarkable counterpoise of fortune, been coincident with a naval victory, which fairly put at rest the question of invasion. It was under these circumstances of alternate disappointment and success, that Mr. Fox began at Paris the negociation of 1806, a measure by no means sanctioned by tlie majority of our country- men. The offers of Bonaparte, towards the close of the conferences, would perhaps have been satis- factory on tlie score of territorial cession, had they not, when viewed in concurrence with his other })rojects, appeared to our ministers little else than a link in the chain of aggression ; an expedient to procure not a peace, but a truce. War was accordingly renewed, and by land, vic- tory continued faithfid to France : the events of the campaigns of 1806 and 1807, were subversive of the remaining independence of Germany, and by giving France the co-operation of Russia, seemed to leave her without a riv al on the conti- nent. Under these circumstances, our only safety lay in our naval superiority, and the war Mas pro- ceeding without any definite prospect or favour- able opening, when Bonaparte committed his first great ])o]itical error. Hitherto, in liis successes, he had shown more moderation, at least apparent War of 1803. 13 moderation, than miglit have been expected from one so little advanced in years, and so confident in his general calculations. He now, however, forgot the dictates of caution, turned his aggression to an unoffending quarter, and by his manner of inveigling the royal family of S})ain, excited not only the in- dignation of foreigners, but general suiprise and dissatisfaction among the French, who were heartily sick of war, and coveted no })ossessions beyond the Pyrenees or the Al])s. It is a truth, by no means sufficiently understood in this country, that the French people at no time participated in the restless ambition of their ruler : their views in regard to territory were limited to the Belgic provinces, and those they desired not on politi- cal grounds, not from a wish to overawe Hol- land or threaten Germany, but from considerations chiefly commercial, from similarity of language and habits, vicinity of position, and the non-exist- ence of physical barriers. So far from being animated by that eagerness for war which so many on our side of the Channel ascribe to them, the French regarded themselves as the greatest suf- ferers by the sanguinary contest, and were taught to ascribe its prolongation to the ambitious views of our cabinet. The war in Spain, varied as was its success during several years, proved the first great scene on which the hitherto victorious armies of France were effectually resisted. That power of combin- ation, that skill in generalship, which, in the pre- sent age, has been so little cons})icuous in the mili- tary opponents of France, wiiich, in the long struggle of the Austrians, was remarked in only two campaigns, (179'^ and 17i^{^) ^^'^^^ 'i^'''c> called into action, and directed against the enemy both 14 intr (flHOS. the discipline of tlic British, and the national anti- pathy of the Spaniards. This war was remarkahk' as the first in which Bonaparte did not, on the appearance of serious resistance, forsake his capital, and bring tlie contest to a decisive issue. In 1810, the humiliation of Austria and Prussia lefl him at liberty to recross the Pyrenees, but to the surprise of France, as of the continent in general, he allowed his army to remain long in an indecisive })Osition before our lines at Torres Vedras, and eventually to retreat. This signal repulse was followed by symptoms of resistance in a new quarter. Russia, alarmed for her independence, and taught, by the success of our Portuguese campaign, the means of bafHing by defensive operations, an enemy hitherto accounted irresistible, no longer concealed her hostility to France. Bonaparte passed a year in forming his gigantic plan of invasion : it failed, as is well kno\vn, less from direct opposition than from phy- sical causes ; and that over-confidence on his part, w^hich w^e trace on so many occasions, and at such different periods of his career — at Arcole, at Acre, at Aspern, and finally, at Waterloo. The loss of the Russian campaign and of tlie flower of the army, however disastrous in a mili- tary sense, did not give so great a shock as the public in England anticipated to the power of Bonaparte in the interior of France. The nation was in affliction at the extent of the bloodshed ; but this feeling was overborne, at least in the middle classes, by the dread of a counter-revolution, and the return of the old abuses — the prixileges of the nohlesscy the ascendancy of the clergy. During 1813, the general wash was, not for a change of dynasty, but for a change of system under the jrar of \80S. 15 existing ruler. No insurrection took place, no resistance was made, or even attenij)ted, to the enormous levies of men and money, during that year ; nor was it till renewed disasters, and the loss of all Germany, that the public began to contem- plate the possibility of tlie return of the Bourbons. Even in 1814, the operations continued without any rising in favour of that family, or any defection of the military from their leader, till after the sur- render of Paris, the possession of which has, through- out the whole of the French revolution, enabled one party to give law to another. This unconsciousness of tlie real character of Bonaparte, this credulity in hoping a pacific sys- tem from one so long accustomed to war and usurpation, must appear not a little singular to the untravelled part of our countrymen. But those among them who visited France in 1814, had ample opportunity of observing that the name of the late ruler was seldom mentioned with reprobation, and that when, from the decided royalists, tliey haj)- pened to hear language to that effect, it was unac- companied by any knowledge of the secret springs of his pohcy, or, indeed, by any attempt to deve- lope his character. This was, in fact, a task too complicated for the reasoning habits of our southern neighbours : they knew and lamented his propensity to war ; but his diplomatic art, his Machiavelian pohcy, surpasseil their analysing powers, unaided as they were by the light of a free press. Nor was it until his sudden return from Elba, when the peace so long desired and so recently obtained, was wrested from them, that the French (we speak here not of the military nor of the party leaders, but of the bulk of the nation,) gave a loose to resentment, and con- 16 If'ir uf ISO'}. ncclcd with Ins iiamr lli:i1 clKir^c of liiitlilcssncss, that suspicion of" criminality vvliicli wc, during so iiianv years, had accounted inseparable fioni it. Tlie reverses of the French arms occurred most oj)portunely for our finances, as shall he shown when we treat of the de])icciation of our currency; but before proceeding to that, the proper object of our researcli, we shall bestow a few sentences on the eventful character of the military history of the ])eriod. Alternations of success. — No contest was ever marked by greater variety of fortune, or more chequered by vicissitudes, the effect of which was, at one time, to check sanguine expectation, at an- other, to prevent despair. The Netherlands reco- vered in 1793, were again lost in lyUl-; the suc- cesses of the Austrians in 1795 were more than balanced by their disasters in the two following years. In 1799 the revived strength of that power and the co-operation of Russia, led to a brilliant campaign, producing the recovery of Italy, and in- flicting severe losses on the French ; but fortune once more forsook the allies, and obHged them to conclude at Luneville a treaty on conditions which left France the leading power on the continent. In our second appeal to arms, our hopes were raised in 180.5 by the co-operation of the great con- tinental })owers ; these hopes were blasted at Ulm and Austerlitz, but despondency was prevented by our victory at Trafalgar. Next year, the fatal day of Jena, and the conquest, rapid beyond example, of the Prussian dominions, would have excited great alarm, had not our courage been sustained by a successful resistance at Eylau, and by a confident estimate of the power of Russia. These favourable expectations were shaken by tlie events of the cam- JFar of 1803, 17 }3aign, the treaty of Tilsit, and more than all, by the increasing connection and community of pur- pose between the French and Russian cabinets. The close of I8O7 was consequently a period of gloom, for the capture of the Danish navy, and the issuing of our Orders in council, could afford satis- faction to those only who were incapable of appre- ciating the odium inspired by the one, and the dis- astrous effects likely to residt from the other. A more substantial ground of liope was afforded in the ensuing year by the attack on Spain, the general resistance which it provoked, the still more general hatred which it roused. The repulse of the French from the southern and central parts of Spain, and the success of our troops at Vimeira, the lirst general action on land that we had fought during the war, confirmed these flattering impres- sions ; but they were unfortunately clouded by the repeated defeats of the Spaniards in the winter, and the retreat of our army to Corunna. Next year opened with the arming of Austria, and with some successful operations in the Peninsula, but the battles of Eckmuhl and Wao-ram, the failure of our Antwerp expedition, the second retreat of our army from Spain, cast a gloom over the aspect of affairs, which continued during the whole of 1810. At that time the contest presented no expecta- tion of a favourable issue ; the Spaniards were inefficient and divided; the northern courts, if not unfriendly, were unable to hazard co-operation with us ; and our bank ])aper, after having diu'ing tiie preceding seven years maintained its \alue with almost all the stability of a regular currency, now gave way before the triple pressure of corn imports, foreign subsidies, and a suspension of our accustomed receipts from the Continent of Europe c 18 ff^^if of 180S. on account of Ami'iicaii merchants. Our exports to the United States had been, for the most part, paid by remittances in money from the Continent of Kin'ope, and woukl, had we allowed their na\ iga- tion to continue, have formed a finid capable, in a great measure, of balancing our demands, whether for military expenditure in the south of Europe, or for the purchases of corn in the north. But this truth was unfortunately unknown to the public, and imperfectly felt by ministers. We persevered in stopping the American trade, and thus deprived ourselves of a powerful counterpoise to the irre- gularity of our circulating medium. Our situation thus became replete with anxiety : from invasion we were secured by our fleet, but we dreaded to make peace, lest an interval, turned assiduously to account by our artful enemy, might shake even this last stay of our independence. On other grounds also, peace seemed unadvisable, for by this time Bonaparte had incorporated a farther part of Germany with France, and shown himself equally blind to the lesson given by the resistance of Spahi, and to the hazard of alarming Russia. It was under these disquieting circumstances that we passed the latter months of 1810 and the beginning of 1811. The necessity of abandoning the Peninsula Avas declared by many, and silently anticipated by more, when the scene was unex- pectedly changed by the retreat of the French army from Portugal, and by conflicts, which, ii* not altogether decisive in our favour, w^ere indi- cative of great improvement in our army. An intimation of a growing hostility on the part of Uussia to France, now raised hopes of a higher kind — hopes which, after an interval, were con- flrmed by the memorable campaign of 1812. StUl JFar 0/1803. . 19 the period of vicissitude was not passed ; the ex- pectation excited by the advance of the Russians, and the zeal of their Prussian allies, were dis- appointed at Lutzen, Bautzen, and Hambui-gh ; while our bank paper had fallen above 20 per cent., a fall involving the certainty of a loss to that amount on all the contributions we might make to the cause of the continent, whether in Spain or Germany. It was, however, no time to pause ; circumstances had produced an opportunity, such as had not occurred during the whole war, of re- storing the equilibrium of the Continent : Austria had joined the alliance, and the inefficiency of the French levies was shown in their actions with the Prussians in Silesia. Germany was now delivered, and the French territory invaded, yet even then there occurred an interval of suspended hope : the imprudence of Blucher, and the prompt decision of Bonaparte, led to a check and partial retreat, which, to the public, assumed a serious aspect, when viewed in connection with a negotiation at Chatillon ; but the apprehension inspii'ed by that real or ostensible negotiation, was soon dis- jielled by the evident superiority of the allies, and by the result of a movement, remarkable as indicative of the over-confident calculation of Bo- naparte even under disaster ; we mean his march to gain the rear, and cut off the retreat of his ene- mies — a manoeuvre that might have been followed by success if at the head of such armies, as he com- manded at Ulm and Jena, but which, with the feeble means at his disposal in 1814, served only to embolden his opponents and accelerate the loss of his capital. c 2 '20 CHAP. II. Magnitude of mir Expenditure. — The Sources of our Financial Supplies. After this brief sketch of military events, we pro- ceed to the proper object of our enquiry, the ex- pence incurred by the war, the resources by which it was supported, and the cause of our financial embarrassments since the peace. In this we are aware that we venture on difficult ground, and at- tempt a question of more than usual complexity. War, accounted in former days a season of embar- rassment and povert}', assumed in tlie present age the appearance of a period of prosperity. It closed, indeed, with a great addition to our permanent burdens, but with an increase of national income, whicli seemed fully to counterbalance it, and to confine our loss to that of our brave countrymen who had fallen in the struggle. Peace, we thought, was about to bring a consolidation of the advan- tages earned in battle and sanctioned by treaty, but the residt has been widely different : every succeeding year has discovered some financial dif- ficulty, some fresh defalcation in our national re- sources. The causes have as yet been by no means satisfactorily explained, either in or out of Parlia- ment, and the contradiction between what was ex- pected, and what has actually taken place, implies the prevalence of inurh popidar error, as well as the necessity of an attentive and anxiously-balanced enquiry. Magnitude of our Expenditure. 21 This enquiry we may liope to divest, in some measure, of its complexity, by proceeding step by step, and dividing our subject into separate heads. The first point is to form a distinct idea of our war expences, as well the annual charge as the aggregate for the whole contest ; a calculation as yet famihar to few persons on account of tlie mag- nitude of the sums, the detached manner in which they are generally brought before the public, and tlie complexity of our finance accounts, which have hitherto presented, in the sinking fund, an ap- parent surplus, and, under the head of supply, an apparent deficiency. In the early years of this memorable contest, ministers were almost as little avv^are as the public of the extent to which the national contributions could be carried, and the increase of our expendi- ture was, consequently, gradual. Taking the total money raised by loans and taxes, but deducting from it 18,000,000/. annually, as the probable ex- penditure of Great Britain and Ireland, had peace been preserved, we find tlie following result : — Su7ns annually raised for the War of 1793. 179S. - £ 1-,000,(X)() 1798. - ^29,000,000 i 794-. 10,000,000 1799. 36,000,0(K) 1795. 18,000,000 1800. 36,000,000 1796. 26,000,000 1801. 45,000,000 1797. 35,000,000 1802. 44-,000,000 These sums are properly the amount raised, not the amount expended in each year : still they con- vey a fair idea of the annual cost of the war. Their great increase, in the latter years, was owing to several causes ; the augmentation of our establish- ments, the depreciation of money, and consequent rise of pay, stores, &c. ; and, finally, to the nc- fS Magnitude of our Expenditure. cumulation of interest on the expenditure of all the preceding- years. Such was the war of 1793, a war exhibiting an average expenditure of ?7>000,000/., which, though nearly double that of any preceding contest, was destined to be surpassed both soon and in a very great degree. ^ums raised by loans and taxes for the ivar of 1803, after de- ducting the portion appropriated to Ireland, and allowing ^2,000,fXX)/. as the total (f our prnhahle expenditure, had peace been preserved in 1793. 1803. ..... ^29,000,000 1804. .--... 1-0,000,000 1805. ..... 52,000,000 1806. ...... 50,000,000 1807. .... - 56,000,000 1808. - - - ... 57,000,000 1809. (War in Spain) - ... 61,000,000 1810. (Ditto) .... 62,000,000 1811. (DiUo) ..... 66,000,000 1812. (War in Spain and Russia) - - 80,000,000 1813. (War in Spain and Germany) - - 98,000,000 1814-. (War on the French territory) - - 89,000,000 1815. - - - ' - - 86,000,000 Here also the increase was progressive ; so ne- cessary was it, even in our day of enthusiasm, to wait until the machine of circulation became adapted to this new impulse. At last, our expen- diture reached a sum unexampled in the history of any country, ancient or modern. It is fit, however, to keep in mind two very material qualifications ; first, that the sums in the latter years are greatly swelled by the accumulation of interest on the pre- vious expenditure ; next, that after 1810, a large sum, fully 20 per cent, on our foreign disburse, is to be put to the account of the depreciation of our bank paper. With these deductions, the expence of the unparalleled year of 1813 may be stated at Magnitude of otir Expenditure. 23 70,000,000/., and the other years reduced in a cor- responding proportion. But after every subtract tion, the amount of our expentliture was sui'prising: for the whole contest it may be thus stated. Total money raised in Great Britain by loans and taxes, during the 23 years that elapsed, between the beginning of 1793 and that of 1816 ; (see Appendix) about -^1,564,000,000 Deduct for the amount of our peace es- tablishment and charges unconnected with the war, a sum, which, from the increase of our population and the necessity of enforc- ing the collection of the revenue in Ireland, we reckon at somewhat more than the aver- age expenditure of Great Britain and Ireland previous to 1793; making (see Appendix) an amount of about - - - ^^4.64,000,000 Remainder, constituting the charge of 7 ,,, . „ „ „ „ ^^^ the war - - - - J ' ' ' The next question is, in what manner did go- vernment find it practicable to raise these unex- ampled sums ? Loans, the great resource in former wars, were resorted to during the early years of the contest ; thus — Money raised by loans. 1794-. - c^' 11,000,000 1796. - ^^2.5,500,000 1795. - 18,000,000 1797. - 32,500,000 Tlie last of these sums being great beyond ex- ample in the history of our loans, had the effect of lowering stocks in an alanning degree, reducing the 3 per cents, in 1797, below kS. '^ Mr. Pitt now- felt the necessity of altering his j)lan of finance, and was led, as well by his cliaracteristic confidenci?, as by the general increase of individual income attendant on the war, to adoj)! ihe very bold expe- ♦ Dr. Hamilton on the National Dcbi, p, 252. C i iil' M(i}j:nihi(lc of our Espcnditnrc. (liriil ol" war taxes, or, as it was officially termed, *' raisiiiL;- a Jari;v ))roj)ortion of the sii])])lies witlun the year." i'iie success of" this plan forms tiie ^raml feature of tlie financial history of our age : attem})ted at first on a liinited scale, it was carried by the imposition of the income tax, to a large amount, and before the close of the war attained a magnitude almost incredible. Supplies raised tvitkin the year, being the vet produce of our taxes, after deducting 1 8,000,000/., as the computed average of a peace establislnnent, and excluding all loans. War 0/179S. — During the first four years the war taxes were in considerable, and in 1797, tliey were carried to only - - - d^ 3,000,000 But in 1798. they were carried to - 12,000,000 1799. - . - - 17,000,000 1800. .... 16,000,000 1801. - - -■ - 17,000,000 1802. ... - 19,000,000 War o/" 1803. — The produce of our annual supplies computed as above, with the exclu- sion ,of loans, but after deduction of a larger sum (22,000,000/., see Appendix,) as the pro- bable peace establishment : 1803. 16,000,000 1810. . 45,000,000 1804. 23,000,000 1811. 43,000,000 180.5. 28,000,000 1812. 41,000,000 1806. 31,000,000 1813. 45,000.000 1807. 36,000,000 1814. 48,000.000 1808. 40,000,000 1815. 48,000,000 1809. 4-1,000,000 Respective Propoi^tion of Loans and Taj:es, Of the total sum of 1,100,000,000/. expended during the war, the amount added to our perma- nent debt w^as 160,000,000/., so that the aggregate of the supplies raised within the year, amounted for the whole war to 640,000,000/. a surprising sum to be obtained by a mode of taxation almost Magnitude ofoitr Expendihn^e. 2.5 unknown in foreign countries, and carried in former wars to a very limited extent among ourselves. The financial history of the war may l)e divided into three periods : First, the tbiu' years previous to 1797, in which our treasury was conducted as in former wars, with- out any innovation in regard to war taxes or pa])er money. Secondly, the interval from 1797 to 1805, in which we had hoth war taxes and non-convertible paper, but M ithout greatly depreciating the one, or carry- ing the other to an extreme. Thirdly, the period from 1805 to 1815, in which the amount of the sujoplies raised within the year became enormous, and the depreciation of our paper, particularly after 1810, formed a very serious addition to our difficulties. We have thus exhibited a statement of our expenditure, which, though brief) is, we trust, perspicuous, all complexities of redeemed and uiu'edeemed stock, all distinctions of funded and unfunded debt, being excluded from our calcuhi- tion, and the charge of the war considered only under the two great divisions of debt contracted and expenditure defrayed in the current year. Compared with these sums, how insignificant were the additions made to our public burdens by former wars. That of 1689, under King Wilham, cost annually between 3 and 4,000,000/. and addetl in all 20,000,000/. to the national debt. Under Queen Anne, the flattering hopes inspired by repeated victories, led to a longer contest and hu-gor outlav, carrying our annual ex])enditure to 5 or (),000,000/. ; the addition to the public debt during the war to somewhat more than 30,000,000/. In the less suc- cessful contest of 1710, our ex})enditure differed ^6 The Sources of our Financial Supplies. from year to year; the addition to our j)ublic debt aiiiomitcMl lo nearly .'3(),()()0,()00/. In that of 17^6, the angnientcd resources of the country, and the bold system of Lord Chatham, raised our annual expenditure to an average of 10,(KK),()()(J/., the ad- dition to our debt to fully r)(),(K)(),000/. The un- ibrtunate contest with our colonies, and the war that ensued after 1778 with European powers, was attended with an average charge of 17,000,000/., and an addition to our debt of somewhat more than 100,000,000/. The total of public debt in- curred in the course of a century was thus 2^0,000,000/., a sum which, however large, formed only the half of that which we have contracted in the present age. The Sources of our Financial Supplies. — The next and by far the most im})ortant step in the progress of our enquiry is, by what means and from what sources the nation was enabled to meet such unprecedented demands ? In the opinion of many, the means were derived from the extension, or as it is commonly termed, our monopoly of foreign commerce. " The French revolution," said the late Arthur Young*, " burst forth like a volcano, *' and laid the mdustry, manufactures, and com- *' merce of France, and eventually those of the *' whole Continent, hi the dust; Britain became the " emporium of the world, and such a scene of wealth " and prosperity tilled every eye in this happy " country, as the sun before had never shone " upon." The belief of such a monopoly has, on the part of a merely practical man, or in the pages of a pamphleteer, nothing surprising, but we were little prepared to find it in a publication of large cir- * Enquirv into the Value of Money in England, 1812 ; p. 77- The Sources of our Financial Supplies. 27 culation and acknowledged ability. * The fact is, that the amount of our foreign commerce was not greater, nor so great at any time during the war as since the peace ; a point wliich may at once be as- certained by a reference to our custom-house re- turn of exports and imports. These documents, however unfit to represent the balance of mer- cantile payments from one country to another, form good authorities for ascertaining the com- parative extent of our business from year to year. Our Exports according to the official value. — We shall give the result of our custom-house return of exports in two modes ; first, by the official value, which means (see Appendix,) the value computed by the weight or dimensions of inerchandize, and at a uniform rate of price, without reference to the fluctuations of the market. Total Exports from Great Britain, computed according to thejixed official standard of the Custom-house. Average of the nine years of the first war, viz. from the beginning of 1793 to that of 1802 - - - a^3O,760,0OO Average of ten years of the second war, from 1803 to 1812, both inclusive, leaving out 1813, the records of which were destroyed by fire, and considering 1802 as a year of peace - - 42,145,000 But if we compare this with the eight years of peace, of which the returns have been made to Par- liament, we shall find a considerable increase since 1814. Average of the total exports from Great Britain computed officially for the eight years, from 1814 to 1821, both in- clusive. (See Appendix.) - - 54,200,000 '■ Edinburgh Review, No. Ixv. p. 170-, and again in No. Ixxii. p. 458. i28 The Sources <>[' otn- Fhinneidl Supplies. TUvsc ciistoni-lioiisc rcliiriis, l)ciiiL,^ made on a uniform plan, and calculated by the weight or dimensions of the package, are conchisive as to the (juantitii of our exports. It may be said, however, ihaf, ill otlicr respects, tliey are less satisfactory; and that although the bulk ex])ortcd at present be greater, the value is less in consequence of the general reduction of prices. That prices were much higher during the war, particularly in the latter years, admits of no doubt, but in whatever way the calculation be made, the advantage is on the side of peace, thus: — Exports from Great Britain (luring the tvar, computed chiefly from the declaration of the exporting merchants ; or, tvhen there rvas no declaration, by a suitable addition to the official value. Average of the ten years from 1791 to 1801, both inclusive - - ^48,890,000 Average of the ten years from 1801 to 1810 - - - - 52,84-7,000 In peace, our exports afford an average consi- derably larger, after making (see Appendix,) an allowance for the reduced value of merchan- dize. Average of our annual exports during eight years from ISH to 18'21, both inclu- sive, computed chiefly from the declara- tion of the exporting merchants. (See Appendix.) - - - ^63,787,000 In both points of view, therefore, our foreign connnerce is found to have been less considerable in war than in peace : it is equally easy to sho\v, that its profits were wholly inadequate to the sup- port of any great share of our expenditure. Mr. Pitt, on proposing the income-tax in 1798, com- puted our foreign commerce to yield to the various The Sources of our Financial Supplies. -29 persons, merchants and others, engaged in it, an annual income of 12,000,000/., a sum, ])robably not under-rated at the time, but which, for the sake of giving those who diifer from us, tlie full benefit Q^ argument, ought, we shall suppose, to ha\e been doubled and taken during the war, at an anmial amount of !ii4,000,000/. This, be it observed, is not saving, but income, out of which are to be sup- ported all the persons engaged in the business j and if we compute the clear saving in a proportion, which, in regard to most other branches of indus- try, would be more than sufficiently liberal, the re- sult will be a clear yearly gain of three millions sterling. But what would be thought of that sum, or of double or triple its amount, as a countei- poise to such expenditure as ours during the late wars ? Of all the branches of our foreign commerce, the greatest extension took place in that with tlie United States : but that outlet was closed several years before the end of the war ; and, however pro- ductive of work to oiu' mamifactui'ers, lias never been considered a source of pecuniary aid, accom- panied as it necessarily is, by long credits and debts (hfficult of recovery. Our Colonial Acquisitions. — Our other sources of imagined supply were the occupation of new colo- nies, the suspension of the navigation of hostile states, and a supposed reduction of their rival manufactures. — Of the conquered colonies, the princi])al were Trinidad, Demerara, Esseciuebo, Tobago, each little advanced in culti\ati()n, each recpiiring a large transfer of capital from this country, and each yielduig little present reveiiiu-. Similar disadvantages characterised, though, ni a 30 The Sources (if'ttiir Financial Supplies. less degree, St. Lucia, Guadaloupe, Martinique. As to the East Indies, our acquisitions, vast in point of* territory, and considerable in regard to internal reveiHie, have been as yet of very secondary im- portance in respect to commerce, though, on the continent of Europe, there prevails an opinion that India is the grand source of our uational wealth. Suspension of Foreign Competition . — We come next to a very plausible argument, the benefit sup- posed to arise to us from the suspension that took place during the war, of the navigation of France, Holland, and the other states dependent on France. The fact doubtless was, that the flag of these countries could not appear on the ocean, because they had not men of war to protect their convoys ; but the transfer of navigation was made less to British vessels than to neutrals, — Americans, Danes, Swedes, Prussians, and to Dutch shipping, bearing the flag of the petty ports in the north-west of Germany. — Lastly, in regard to manufactures, those of France have undergone no reduction since the Revolution, and much less fluctuation than is commonly supposed : during the last thirty vears they have been on the same scale of gradual in- crease as before ; that is, they have all along kept pace with the wants of a country, increasing pro- gressively, though not quickly, in population. Compelled to quit their favourite ground of foreign commerce, to what do these calculators resort for the purpose of explaining our prosperity during the war ? Government loans and contracts, however profitable in vulgar estimate, are obviously out of the question as a source of national supply. The conunand of money, given by the adoption of The Sources of our Financial Supplies. 31 a paper currency, is ii theme confidently urged, to use a parliamentary phrase, both " in and out of doors:" it was certainly of great importance, but enough, we trust, will be advanced in a succeed- ing chapter to show that the extent of supply, de- rived from that source, has not yet been distinctly comprehended. We dwell, therefore, no longer on delusive suppositions, but proceed to what ap- pears to us the true solution of this financial enigma, seeking it in the increase less of our trans- actions M'ith foreign countries, than of our pro- ductive industry at home. Increase of Employment during the War. — We begin by requesting those of our readers who are of an age to recollect the period of peace prior to 179s, to recall to mind the circumstances of that time in as far as regarded the employment of indi- viduals, the chance of favourable openings in tlie different walks of industry. They will not fail to re- member, that, though by no means an unprosperous season, it was marked by the symptoms common in an aara of political tranquillity, — complaints of overstock in the genteel professions, and of inade- quate payment in almost all of a humbler descrip- tion. In a season of peace, salaries or wages are adapted with scrupulous nicety to tlie sum neces- sary for personal support, and, except in tlie case of the inheritors of patrimony, the ])ortion of in- come disposable for purposes of indulgence, is far from large. Sucli has long been the case in France, and most countries of the Continent; such, at various intervals of the last century, was the case in our own — a state by no means unsound or likely to engender future embarrassment, but lead- ing by very slow degrees to the attaiinnent of pro- fes«?ional rank, or the acquisition of property. This ;j'2 7'//r Soinrcs of our Fnidncial Supplits. tiun(|iiil condition, this nicdium between activity and stagnation, was entirely altered by the war ; the army, the navy, the pubHc offices of govern- ment opened a career to mmnbers of every class, and by absorbing a very large ])roportion of the candidates for em])]oynient, created a corres})ond- ing briskness in agriculture, trade, and professions ; increasing the wages of the lower, and the salaries of the higher ranks. Capitalists also, a class retired for the most part from active pursuits, partook of the general im- pulse ; the pecuniary demands of government were large, and the rate of interest experienced a gene- ral and permanent rise. Occupation was thus afforded to individuals of every age and of almost every degree of capacity ; many, who from defi- cient activity or mediocrity of parts, would, in a state of peace, have necessarily remained unem- ])loyed, were brought by the war into situations attended with income ; some in the pubUc serxice, others in private employment, but ail in conse- (pience of the extra demand created by govern- ment. Several departments of business, such as our fisheries, our trade with the Continent of Europe, and that with our AVest India colonies, were exposed to heavy losses, and the whole body of fixed annuitants felt severely the increased ex- pence of living. But these classes formed the minority of the public : and even they felt, more or less directly, through the medium of their con- nections, the benefit of that impulse which for a time improved the income of almost all persons in active life, raising to the monied men the rate of interest ; to the labouring class, the rate of wages ; to the manufacturer, the merchant, and, in parti- cular, to the farmer, the profits of stock. The Sources of our Financial Supplies. 3"5 Such was the activity attendant on a state of war, and on tlie facihty with which extended trans- actions were managed by means of bank pajjer. If to some our sketch appear too highly coloured, we have merely to refer them to a comparison of the average rate of wages and salaries in particular periods, such as 179^ and 181^; to the increased sales of our manufacturers and merchants ; the rise of rent to the landlord ; the increase of profit to his tenant. Consequent Increase of Revenue. — All these cir- cumstances, in particular the increased call for per- sonal labour, had a powerful tendency to augment the relative population of towns, as well by pro- moting mai'riage as by drawing to them an extra share of the country population. Now what is the effect of an increase of town population on the productive powers, or, in other words, on the tax- able income of a country ? To form a due esti- mate of this, we must point the reader's attention to the passages hi our cliapter on Population, where, in treating of the comparative revenue of chflerent classes, we contrast the dexterity and dispatch of towns, witli the slow, inefficient labour of the country. A transfer of residence from country to town leads to augmented ability in the individual, to the increase of the quantity, the amelioration of the quality, of liis work ; it raises his wages, and, by enabling him to live better, extends the consumj)- tion of articles productive to the exchequer. Of tlie magnitude of the amount paid by the lowej- orders, and the increase of public re\enue at- tendant on increase of wages, whether in war or peace, some idea may be formed from the follow- ing table. » .11. The Sm/rrrs o/'ni/r Financial St/pplies. AhstrnrI nf Kxrisr n»/l Ct/sfotn Hvlica in 1820, nffectitig ihe cnn .sumption nf l/ic labouring classes. Malt ... - - -i£'5,000,000 Ik-er - 2,500,000 British spirits ... fl,0()0,(XK) Salt .... 1 ,.500,{XK) Tobacco and Snuff 3,000,000 Soap - . . - 9(H),()00 Leather 600,000 Candles ... 300,000 Tea 3,000,000 Hemp . - - 200,000 20,000,000 To which may be added, Timber 1,000,000 Coals carried coastwise nearly - 1,000,000 Total ^'22,000,000 Tlie progressive increase in the productiveness of our taxes was owing partly to higher wages, partly to augmented population. Increase of our Population. — We shall have occasion, in a subsequent chapter, to show the close connection that exists between the increase of our numbers and the productiveness of our taxes : at present, our statement shall be brief Our population returns for the last twenty years indicate an increase of no less than one and a half per cent, annually; but to avoid the hazard of over- rating, we shall suppose that previous to these returns, and to the general introduction of \accin- ation, the augmentation was less rapid, and shall assume eighteen per cent, on the po})ulation of 1792 as the total increase during the fourteen years that followed that date. After these preliminary remarks, we proceed to state arithmetically, the increase of our resources, beginning by a table of the amount of our excisB T)ie Sources of our Financial Sujyp/ics. 35 Juties, the operation of winch affects, as is well known, a great variety of articles, inchiding as w^ell the wine of the higher orders, as the malt liquor, the s})irits, the tobacco, consumed by their humbler countrymen. Revenue arising J)'om the Excise during the Jbllffwing years oj' xmr, being the gross Income, before deducting 0ie charges of collection. 1805. .... ^23,194-,0OO 1806. .... - 24.,08 1,000 1807. ..... 24,681,000 1808. ..... 25,593,000 1809. (Orders in Council) - - - 23,471,000 1810. 25,796,000 1811. - - - - - 26,078,000 1812. (War with America) - - 23,532,000 1813. .... - 25,272,000 1814. ..... 26,471,000 1815. - - - - - 27,207,000 i^onjectural estimate of the total taxable Income of Great Britain, at different periods, from 1792 to 1814. Money of the same value as in 1792, (Great Britain distinct from Ireland.) In 1792 our taxable income may be com- puted to have been .... ^125,000,000 In 1806; increase calculated in the ratio of the increase of tlie population, viz. 18 per cent., 22,500,000 147,500,CX)0 Probable addition to national income from the higher wages and higher profits of capital in a state of war, . - . . 22,500,000 Total of taxable income in 1806, - 1 70,0(X),0()0 We shall now apply this mode of calculation to the last year of the war. In 1813 or 1814: Increase of national income since 1806, calculated in the ratio of the in- crease of population, 1 1 per cent. D "i? SC) J*/'()j)(>rii()?i (>!' our National iiKomc ill I H(Mj us above, - i"147,500,(X)0 Add 1 I pirioiit. .... Jf;,5(X),(KX) 1 f)1-,()00,(KX) Probable addition to national income, from the higher wages and higher profits of capital in a state of war, .... 24,000,000 Total of taxable income in 1813 or IHl^, in money of 1792, .... 188,000,000 By taxable income, we understand the aggregate income of the individuals accustomed to consume taxed articles; and our estimate is founded chiefly on the returns made under the property, tax, with the addition of the computed amount of wages and other incomes, which, though exempt from that charge, are subject to taxes on consumption. (See the chapter on National Capital and Re- venue.) We shall explain in the next chapter the fluctu- ation in the value of money since 1792; meantime by exhibiting our income at different dates in money of uniform value, we simplify the estimate, and enable the reader to mark its increase, without the perplexity attendant on a difference in the value of our currency. A comparative Statement of our Public Burdens, and Taxabh Income. The public burdens include taxes, {tvith the expence of collec- tion) poor-rate, and tithe. , Tlie same re- Our taxable in- duced to a come comput- Annual burdens uniform stan- ed b}' a uni- Years. in the money dard ; viz. form standard; of the parti- money of the viz. money of cular year. same value as the value of ia 1792. 1792. 1792. - a£'22,000,000 22,000,000 125,000,000 1806. - 60,000.0(X) 46,000,000 170,000,000 1814. - 80,000,000 50,000,000 188,000,000 Burdens /o our Resoicrces. SJ The advantage of making our computation in money of uniform value is here very a})parent. To judge from the numerical amount, our public bur- dens would seem to have more than tripled in the course of the twenty -three years of war, but when reduced to the money of 179^, the increase is ibund to be little more than double. It remains that we bring our reasoning to a point, by ascertaining "the proportion borne at different periods by our burdens to our means."^ This we accomplish by a calculation founded on the preceding tables, but modified by some consi- derations which shall be explained in our chaj)ter on National Revenue and Capital. The result is that our burdens bore to our resources, (Great Britain distinct from Ireland.) In 1792. a proportion of nearly - 18 to 100 1806. - of - - 27 to 100 1813. or 1814. of - 27 to 100 (See Chap. VIII. p. 269.). Such was the proportion of our burdens to our resources, afler including in the latter the increase arising from the augmentation dining the war, both of our numbers and our pecuniary means. The additional pressure stated arithmetically, was about nine per cent, on our national income, a charge less great than is commonl}^ attributed to our taxes, but sufficiently large to call for some farther ex- planation of the remarkable circumstances that enabled us to defray it. Our War Taxes.— Thii amoinit of our loans, though very dififercnt in different years, averaged, on the whole of the war, the annual sum of 20,()(X),000/. This bold use of our credit, this free D 3 335337 38 rrvporlioji of our iliHuglit oil (Hir tiitmc resources, was ulniost all expended in tlie extension of our domestic indus- try. It may be termed a premium given to the existing generation at the charge of posterity : it may be comi)ared to a stream, which, though proceeding from an unnatural and temporary source, diffused a fertility a})proaching to luxu- riance, so long as it continued to flow. Our reailers have probably little difficulty in conceiving the operation of borrowed money; — in compre- hending how individual, and consequently public income may be increased by giving activity to the present age at the expence of the next. The intri- cacy lies in a different question ; in the mode of accountino- for our taa:es. and for the ease with which sums of unprecedented magnitude w^ere raised in that manner during the war. To solve til is difficidty, some writers adopt the convenient theory, that taxation may be made an engine for in- creasing national wealth, as if the money expended on an indecisive campaign were ultimately as pro- fitable as a rate imposed for the improvement of our streets, roads, and canals. Without becomino* converts to this singular opinion, we have no diffi- culty in regarding taxation, when expended at home,. less as a privation of wealth than as an instrument of circulation. It is evidently applied to the ex- tension of employment, and, by increasing the in- comes of inchviduals, enables them to find a liuid lor answering its own demand, — the subsequent visits of the collector. Ta.vation considered as Circidation. — Imat^ine the case of a contractor receiving annually 100,000/. from the Treasury, and distributing it in an addition to the wages, salaries, and profits of two or three thousand persons. AVithout the war, these indivi- Burdens to our Resources. 39 duals iiiight, and probably Avould, have had employ- ment, but not to an equal extent, receiving perhaps 60/. annually instead of* the 70/. or 80/. given them by the war, an addition which fully enabled them to pay the extra charge imposed in the shape of taxes. Or suppose the whole expenditure of the nation, in other words, the amount disbursed on articles, which directly or indirectly })ay taxes, to be 200,000,000/. a year, and that in addition to former burdens new taxes are imposed to the extent of '20,000,000/. The effect of this heavy impost is a correspondent rise in the price of the articles consumed ; but as the amount received by the Treasury is forthwith circulated among the payers of the taxes, and applied to remunerate their exer- tions, the latter are enabled to indemnify themselves by an addition to the charges constituting their respective incomes, whether in the shape of wages, salary, or profit of stock. Possessed of this power, the higher price paid for iirticles of consumption becomes a matter of indifference, particularly when, in consequence of the government demand for men and money, the increase of their incomes exceeds the increase of their expence. The result accord- ingly is, that they pay 10 per cent, additional on their consumption, and add as much, or more, to the charges constituting their incomes. To what amount, it may be asked, did the circu- lation in question take place, in consequence of taxes? To a sum very different in different years, and increasing largely after ISOG, but forming, on an average of the whole period of war, more than 40,000,000/. a year. In what particular mode did file annual expenditure of that sum, and of the far- ther 20,000,000/. supplied by loans, chiefly take place ? In recruiting, clothing, and victualling our D !< 40 J'ritpo/ //<)/> o/ our militia, iirmy, and navy; in the purchase of stores, the hiiiiditiiT of" ships of" war, the repair of" fortifica- tions ; in contracts, pay, salaries, pensions. Even ill tliat whicli scented strictly foreign expenditure, our subsidies to tiie continent, luid tiie mainte- nance of our garrisons abroad, the remittances took place less in money than in articles of British manufacture. It remains to add a few remarks on tiie manner in which these large sums were repaid to the Trea- sury. Of our taxation, the far greater proportion (40,000,000/.) is on articles of consumption, a mode in which the tax, blending itself with the price of the article, escapes, in a great measure, the observation of the consiuner. No wonder, therefore, that such imposts were, in a manner, overlooked in the general rise of wages, salaries, and profits. In like manner, the increase of stamps, heavy as it became, was accounted a secondary object after the great augmentation of price ob- tained, as the war proceeded, by the venders of property. The assessed taxes and poor-rate being undisguised burdens, excited more animad- version, but they w*ere submitted to as well from a conviction of their necessity, as from the genera] ardour in the contest with France, and her dreaded ruler. Computed Amount thus repaid to the Treasury. — If we go a step farther, and endeavour to define the amount repaid, during the war, to the public Treasury, the plan is to revert to the estimate we have already made of the proportion of our burdens to our national income. Tliat proportion, (27 per cent. f"or the country at large,) was greater in towns, on account of the more general consump- 14. Burdens to our Resowxes. 41 tion of exciseable articles. Now as the expend- iture of government for the war, or, to speak more correctly, the increased expenditure of individuals consequent on government disburse, took place almost entirely in towns, we shall probably not exceed in calculating that it returned into the Exchequer a proportion approaching to 33 per cent., or a third of the amount that had issued from it. This estimate justifies the following in- ference : Total of expenditure for the war - ^1100,000,000 Of which a third, or 33 per cent., paid back in taxes, formed a sum of about - 3GO,000,000 a sum which goes far towards accounting for the payment of our w ar taxes, enormous as they were ; or, in other words, towards proving that those pecuniary sacrifices on which tlie public received such eloquent compliments from ministerial orators and newspaper writers, were often little more than a repayment of money issued from the Treasury. The power of paying taxes during the late war is thus to be sought, not in retrenchment on the part of the public, but in an increase of the general activity, and still more in that which a writer of the present age, (as yet little known to the public, but to whose works we shall frequently have occa- sion to refer, Mr. 8. Gray) terms the power of " charging and counter-charging ;" the j)ower of individuals to augment tliose demands whicli con- stitute their respective incomes; and thus to transfer from one hand to another the burden of a new tax. Absence of Foreign Co7npetition. — This aug- mentation of charjre, tliis transfer of burden, was ^^ Proportion of our liiciliLatod during the war by various causes, among which is to be included the existence of similar, though not equal demands iiom continental go- vernments on their subjects. These demands, in conjunction with the obstructions to intercourse attendant on a state of war, had the effect of pre- venting the high prices in England from being lowered by foreign competition. Had the war affected only France and England, had the rest of Euro})e been exempted from the burdens of great military establishments, such a system of increased taxation, or, in other words, such a rapid augment- ation of prices would have been impracticable : our countrymen woidd have emigrated ; capital would have been sent abroad ; foreign manu- factiu'es would have been smuggled among us ; the supplies for the United States and other dis- tant markets would have been prepared on the continent. But Holland, the only continental country possessed of disposable capital, was sub- jected to great oppression ; while Germany, and in the latter years of the war, Denmark and Sweden, were burdened with heavy military charges. Bri- tish capital was prevented from finding its way abroad, as well by dread of Bonaparte's despotism, as by the profitable employment afforded it at home. Smuggling was continued, but only in articles (such as spirits, tea, laces,) in which it had been carried on in peace : the number and activity of our cruisers prevented its extension, notwith- standing the additional temptation arising from our augmented duties. Our country was thus insulated commercially as well as physically, and an amount of taxation, a rise of prices, which at other times woidd ha\e been ruinous, were comparatively innoxious when Burdens to our Resources. 43 our neighbours were subjected to heavy burdens. As soon as this point is clearly comprehended by the enquirer ; as soon as he becomes satisfied of the ' 7ion-ea:istence of foreign competition ; he will find much less difficulty in the solution of our financial problem. Substitution of Bank Notes for Coin. — To all those causes there remains to add the ex- emption of our banks from cash payments ; the effect of which, though less great than is vulgarly supposed, was to make money almost as plenty in war as in peace; and to increase the amount of our circulating medium in proportion as other circum- stances led to a rise in prices. Thus was carried on, from year to year, a most expensive contest, without much pressure on any part of the public, unless the fixed annuitant, and without a depreciation of our national capital, ex- cept of that portion (such as the funds, or loans on mortgage,) of which the value is permanently re- presented by money. To many persons, and in particular to those interested in the expenditure, this state of things bore a favourable appearance ; conveying to some the idea of an accumulation of national Avealth, to others the belief that we de- frayed all our burdens from funds arising fiom the war. The general enhancement of commotlities was ascribed to an abundance of money, and deemed a symptom, or rather a proof^ of the increase of our national wealth. These explanations enable us to account in some measure for a notion very })revalent on the conti- nent, and which, in the latitude in which it is oi- tertained, strikes every Englishman with surprise, — 44i /*r(>/)(>r/i(>f/ of oiir Bilrdens, S^r. That we prolonged the war with a view to our pecu- niary ailvaiitage — as if a charge, which may 1)C true in regartl to ])articuhir classes, could, with any degree of justice, be ajjplied to our countrymen at huge. The temporary stimulus afforded to productive industry by the funding system, though never so strikingly exemplified before, might have been traced in various periods of the history of Europe during the last two centuries. Was it not conspi- cuous in the long contests of the Dutch, first with Spain and subsequently with France, as well as in every war that has been carried on by England since the revolution ? In none of these, it is true, did the amount of loans, and still less the amount of war taxes, bear any proportion to those of the present age ; but they supplied facts of a nature to suffscest serious conclusions, had studies of that description entered into the habits of our legisla- tors. To the more cautious among them, it seem- ed to occur that our situation w^as, in some degree, unnatural ; that the great expenditure of govern- ment was not compensated, on the part of the pub- lic, by economy, or by any great share of extra exertion. Hence an apprehension, on the part of some, that the war must entail a burdensome in- heritance, but at what time, or to what degree, they did not attempt to calculate. Of the reaction to be expected at a peace, no one appears to have had a distinct conception. To foresee its extent was, we admit, impossible ; but few of our public men be- stowed a serious thought on its nature, while some of them seemed hardly aware of the possibility of its occurring ; so limited had been their study of political economy as a science, so cursory their ex- amination of corresponding periods of our history. 45 CHAP. III. Effect of the War on the Price of Commodities. We sliall now fix our attention on that general rise of prices whicli took place during the war, and continued ahnost without interruption from 1793 to 1814. As this formed one of the principal changes in our situation, both individually and nationally, it is fit we should investigate it with minute attention. Of the causes of rise during the war, tlie prin- cipal were : — 1. Tlie great demand of men for government service, and the consequent increase of wages and salaries. 2. The insufficiency of our agricultiu-al produce, caused partly by bad seasons, partly by the drain of labour and capital for the public service. 3. The increase of taxation. 4. The addition to the cost of imported articles, arising from the greater expence of freight, in- surance, and other charges of transport ; and still more from, 5. The depreciation of our bank paper after the year 1809. Of these different causes, the insufficiency of our agricultural produce, and the non-convertibility of our bank paper, are reserved for separate discus- sion : at present, we proceed to the eflect of the demand of men for government service. 46 Crnisci of the Rise of Prices Proporlion nfotir Population engaged in thePvMic Serxice. — In 1792, and tlie preceding years of peace, llie demanil made on onr j)0})uIation for military })ur- poses \vas ^•ery limited. \\\ 179'3, our le\ies took place on a large scale, and in 179'5, tlie numbers raised in three successive years were such as to form a \'ery large establishment. Recruiting, how- ever, continued with activity during the whole war, until the signature of the preliminaries of peace, in tlie autumn of 1801. — In 1803, the renewal of hostilities was attended by a call on our population, which led, in little more than a year, to a more numerous establishment than we had e\er had on foot. The decisi^•e victory of Trafalgar remo\ed the dread of invasion ; but the continental suc- cesses of the French, the aggrandizing projects of Bonaoarte, were such as to admit of no reduction on our part; and after 1808, all hearts were united in the cause of Spanish independence. Hence a continued demand for recruits, an increase of levy money, and a progressive addition to the numbers on foot, during the rest of the war. The proportion of our population under arms was larger in this country than in any other state in Euroi)e. In March 1804, Lord Liverpool, then Lord Hawkesbury, declared in Parliament, that our army and na\y, including militia, but exclusive of volunteers, approached to the number of 400,000, being more than one in ten of the able-bodied po- pulation (then computed at 3,800,000) of Great Britain and Ireland. France, he added, had at that time in arms about 560,000 men, or one in fourteen of her able-bodied population. Austria had on foot also one man in fourteen ; and Russia, if any dependence was to be placed in the loose returns of her population, nearly the same propor- during the War. ly tion. Prussia was tlic only j)o\ver whose military force (about 240,000) bore, like ours, tlie propor- tion of one in ten to her able-bodied males : but it was with her a season of peace, and a number of her soldiers were permitted, by furlough, or other- wise, to give a part of the year to productive labour. It is usual to compute the proportion of able- bodied men in a country at a fourth of the total population. The war of 1793 lasted nine years, and in the middle of that period (the year I797 or 1798), the po})ulation of Great Britain and Ire- land was probably about 14,000,000, giving for the able-bodied 3,500,000. The war of 1803 lasted twelve years, and in 1809, the medium year, our numbers appear to have been somewhat less than 17,000,000, trivino' for the able-bodied a proportion of 4,200,000. The year 1804 was in the middle of our great contest, and his Lordship's computation may accordingly be taken as a fair average of the numbers under arms during the war. It would be a task of no great difficulty to com- pute and place in one column the number of our able-bodied population for each year, and in an- other the number of soldiers, seamen, and militia- men in the ])ublic service. But the demand of war on population goes considerably farther, and extends into a field admitting of less accurate cal- culation, comprising not only persons in j)ublic offices, dock-yards, &c., but a number of indivi- duals unconnected with government, such as manu- facturers of arms, clothing, naval stores, builders of barracks, contractors, and others, the list of whom is too diversified and too mixed with the occupations of private life to admit of any otliei- than a t^eneral estimate. Tliis estimate we are inclined to make, in the proportion of one lialf of the mihtary servants of tlie jiiibhc, taking the aver- age of the army, navy, and mihtia, at 400,000 during our twenty-three years of war, and at ^J00,000 the })ersons deriving an indirect emi)lo} - ment from tlie war. The number of men thus withdrawn from the pur- suits of private industry appears toliave been on an average (i00,000, or 15 per cent of our able-bodied population. It is of importance to remark, that they consisted of individuals born chiefly between the years 177^ ^"^1 1790, a time when our popula- tion was very considerably inferior* to our numbers in 1800. We mention the year 1800, because in the event of any contest occurring at present, our recruits would, in general, consist of individuals born about that period, and the abstraction of an equal niunber of men from productive industry would, of course, be less felt than during the late war. The magnitude of the change which it at that time produced will be put in a striking light by a reference to our annual expenditure, keeping out of view^ our payments for interest of debt, or the civil service of go\ernment, and fixing our at- tention on a Statement * Ricknian's Preliniiuary Observations on the Population Return of 1821. diiriiig the War. 49 Statement of the conjunct expense of our army, navy, and ord- nance, from the beginning to the close of the xvar, taken from the accounts laid before Parliament. 1791. - £ 4,226,000 Brouglit up ^£'287,333,000 1792. 8,750,000 1804. 30,854,000 1793. 13,5I1,(X)0 1805. 36,219,000 1794. 20,247,(X)0 1806. 37,706,000 1795. 28,751,000 1807. 36,176,000 1796. fiO, 165,000 1808. 39,778,000 1797. 27,606,000 1809. 42,073,000 1798. 25,982,000 1810. 43,246,000 1799. 27,257,000 1811. 47,968,000 1800. 29,613,000 1812. 49,739,000 1801. 26,998,000 1813. 54,872,000 1802. 23,121,000 1814. 60,239,000 1803. 21,106,000 1815. 43,282,000 £287,333,000 £809,485,000 Total exceeding 800,000,000. To these sums there remains to add a proportion of our subsidies ; we mean the part suppHed to our alhes, not in money, but in stores, the manufac- ture of which formed, of course, a farther demand on our national labour. Combining these into one sum, and dividing it by tlie number of years of military expenditure, (in all twenty- three,) we find the average annual charge for the army, navy, and ordnance, to have been thirty -six millions, instead of the four or five millions a year prior to 1792. Observe next, the difference of effect on prices in a sum raised for a military purpose, and that which is levied for the interest of the national debt. The latter bore, like all taxation, on the prices of commodities ; but our military expenditure had a double, or rather triple effect of that nature ; first, by a drain of money ; next, by a drain of liands ; and, thirdly, by obliging other hands to work for those so withdrawn. It is only thus that we find it })()ssible to explain cither the extraordinary rise of i: 50 Cavsex of I lie liisc of Prices i)rices ill llic w;ir, oi" llu'ir no less extraordinary fall since the peace. EJfcct of Taxal'um on House-keeping. — I'he result, or, to sj)eak more })roperly, the avowed ten- dency of most taxes, is an augmentation of })rice. Taxes on commodities are always imposed on the calculation of being paid by the consumer; the supply of any article, whether a luxury, such as wine and sugar, or a necessary of life, like corn, salt, leather, being presumed to be in proportion to the effectual demand, and the tax intended not as a burden on the })roducer or v^ender, but as an ad- dition to the price paid by the consumer. This was strikingly exemplified in the enhancement during the war of several articles of daily use. The su- gar which the planter, on paying a moderate duty, could have afforded to sell in England at (JOs. the cwt., was raised by the effect of new taxes and war charges to ^Os. or 7^*'. Tea which, after paying half its original cost to the custom-house, might have been sold at 5s. or iSs. the lb., was raised, in consequence of being taxed 100 per cent., to 'Js. or 8*., and the salt which (see Sir T. Bernard's pam- phlet on the employment of the labouring classes in 1817) might, if unburdened, have been afforded at 1/. a ton, was made, in consequence of the duty, to cost more than twenty times that price. Holland was the first country in Europe that afforded a striking example of the enhancement arising from taxation, her long and expensive strug- gle against Spain having necessitated very hea\T im- posts so far back as two centuries ago. Sir William Temple, among other interesting particulars with which he has diversified the graver matter of his Memoirs, takes occasion (Vol. I. Chapter VH.) to insert the following remark : " The excise in iluring I he J far. .5i Holland is great, and so general, that I have heard it observed at Amsterdam, that when, in a tavern, a certain dish offish is eaten with the usual sauce, thirty several excises are paid, for what is necessary to that small service.'* — In England taxation was comparatively light, until we became ardent par- ticipators in continental war, at first under King William, afterwards under Queen Anne. A long peace, and the prudent administration of Walpole, lessened for a time the pressure of the burden ; but it was very sensibly increased by the wars of 17'1'^» 17«56, lyy-S*, and, above all, by those of the present age. This is sufficiently apparent from the follow- ing table of taxes which affect house-keeping. Taxes on Luxuries. - Foreign spirits, chiefly brandy - a£'2,300,000 British spirits - 3,()00,(X)() Wine - 1,600,0(X) Rum - 200,000 Coffee and Cocoa 300,000 Raisins and other fruits iGO.GOO Silk, raw and thrown 5W.000 Taxes on tlie necessaries or comforts of life. Assessed taxes (pre- vious to the late reduction) £6,500,000 Malt and Beer, (since the reduc- tion in 1822) 6,500,000 Sugar - 3,000,000 Tea - 3,000,000 Coals carried coast- ways - 900,000 Soap - 900,000 Candles and Tallow 400,000 Cotton, Wool 500,000 Leather (since the reduction in 1822) 300,000 Foreign timber 1,000,000 Bricks, tiles, stone, slate - 400,000 Glass - 400,000 Hemp - 200,000 In all, above 3^2,000,000/., exclusive of stani]) duties and postage j also of taxes on foreign articles, E 2 52 Cauxes uf'flif Rise af Prices such as wool, butter, cheese, linens, drugs, all of which have an effect more or less direct on house- kee})ing, and were, like those enumerated above, considerably increased during the war. It occasionally happens, tliat, in consequence of over supply, the market price of an article does not rise in })roportion to the duty, but continues as low, or nearly as low, as previous to its imposition ; the consequence of which is to throw the new bur- den on the producer. Such was long the case of our West India sugar planters during the war ; such is, in a great measure, their case at present : it is the case, also, of a far more nu- merous cla.ss, our farmers, who, in 1823 as in 181.5, arc to be considered as paying a large share of their taxes out of their capital. In general, how- ever, there is made an addition to the price of an article, not merely to the amount of the tax, but in a somewhat increased proportion. Suppose a custom duty paid on an article w^hich, on importation, is sold to a wholesale dealer of the first class, next to one of the second class, and, lastly, to a retailer : the demand of a profit on, or rather of an indem- nity for the tax, is repeated three times ; and al- thouirh these demands are far smaller in degree than has been asserted by the advocates for the re- peal of taxes, they form, eventually and collec- tively, a serious addition to the national burdens j an addition which, joined to the charge of collect- ing our taxes, constitutes, we believe, a dead loss of from six to seven millions sterling, on the total amount paid by the public. This loss will be effectually lessened only by the introduction of a double improvement ; a farther simplification, on the part of government, of the process of collec- tion, and, on the part of the public, the adoption of duriiijx the War. 53 '© the practice of ready money payments, so general in Holland, in its day of prosperity. Next, as to taxation in a more direct and undis- guised form, such as the assessed or the property taxes. In what manner, it may be asked, do indi- viduals in general meet burdens of that description ? Is it by self-denial and economy, by increased in- dustry, or by adding the amount of the tax to the charge which, in their respective lines of business, they make on the public ? Economy is practised, we may be assured, by those only wliose income admits of no increase : augmented exertion is more natural to our countrymen, and was, doubtless, made to bear a considerable part in defraying our war burdens ; but the latter, whenever it was at all practicable, were charged by the payer on his customers or connections ; and the result, as ex- plained in the last chapter, was a progressive enhancement not only of commodities, but of salaries, professional fees, and labour of every kind. Collective Ejfect of' the various Causes of Knhance- ment. — The total rise in prices during the war, appears to have been between 60 and 70 per cent., IGO or 170/. being required in 1813 to make the purchases, whether for the necessaries, comforts, or luxuries of life, which were made in 179^2 for 100/. Tlie degree of rise was, doubtless, different in different situations, but in regard to the public at large, tliat pro})ortion will, we believe, be found to hold. To facilitate the compreliension of this somewhat intricate enquiry, it may be useful to descend into the details of domestic life, and to refer the reader to the subjoined table of family expenditure. E 3 54 Cduscs of I he Rise (J' Prices Comparative expenditure oj' a Family of the middle class in Enf;land in the years 1792 and 1813; — discriminating the heads of cxpcnce {by Nos. 1, 2, 3, 1.) so as to shpw the rise produced respectively by each cause of enhancement. 1792. 1813, £18 47 16 35 22 38 1. Taxation was evidently the ciiief caose of rise in the follow- ing heads of expence : Assessed taxes and poor rate Wine and spirits Tea, sugar, and other groceries Beer (partly from taxation, partly from enhancement of corn) - - - 7 11 2. The advance of labour, the occurrence of indifferent seasons, and the difficulty of import (from the rise of freight, and depreciation of our bank paper after 1809,) were the principal causes of enhancing Bread - . . 25 50 Butcher meat 25 45 Milk, butter, cheese, vegetables 50 85 3. The advance of labour was chiefly in- strumental in raising Servants' wages - - - 18 22 House rent, the rent of houses in occu- pancy being determined by the ex- pence of building new houses, and the latter by the price of labour - 60 100 Clothes ... . 60 85 Fuel .... 24 35 Furniture; whether wc consider the in- terest on the money vested in its purchase; which we calculate at - 42 63 Or annual repairs and purcha!>es, esti- mated at . . - 14 24 durifiii the TFar, 55 4. The rise of the following can hardly be referred to any particular head, but ap- pear the mixed result of taxation, en- hanced labour, and depreciated currency. Articles of leather manufacture, chiefly boots and shoes ... 9 18 Candles and oil 6 10 Washing ... 16 25 Education - - 14. 22 Medical attendance U 20 Incidents, such as postage, stationery, charity, pocket disburse 35 55 Expences of a less necessary character, viz. travelling, and temporary residence in the country 30 50 Expence of company 35 60 Total JL'54-0 900 A table of this kind, useful as it in some degree is, will hardly enable us to ascertain with precision the rise proceeding from each of the great causes of enhancement. But as on so interesting a topic no enquiry can be too minute, we shall endeavour, by \ arying our plan and resorting to other grounds of calculation, to attain the desired result. EJfecl of Taxatio7i. — For an estimate of the effect of taxes on house-keeping, we are in some measure prepared, by the tables in our second chapter. These, as well as our subsequent calcu- lations, (see the chapter on National Revenue anil Expenditure,) exhibit tlie proportion borne at dif- ferent periods (179^, 1806, and 1813), by our bur- dens to our resources. And the result is, that the increase of our taxes, during the war, amounted to a charge oi'?imej)C)^ cent, on our national capital. This, the arithmetical result, is greatly below the ge- E 4 56 Causes ()f the Rise of Pt'iccs neral estimate of the taxes imposed during the war. It is also l)clow the addition whicli they will be found to liave causctl to our j)rices, when we take into account the obstacles they create to improve- ment in our agriculture and manufactures. These various impediments, unknown to the public, but severely felt by the persons on whose diffl'rent lines of occupation they bear, all tend to keep up or augment prices, and their collective effect was, we believe, such as amply to justify our computing the addition to our prices, from our war taxation, at twelve instead of nine per cent. Of this we shall treat more fully in our concluding cha})ter, when we come to urge the expediency of a farther reduction in our public burdens. Substitution of Bank Paper for Coin. — Here we introduce a cause to which, in the opinion of the great majority of the public, we ought to ascribe the chief part of the rise of prices during the war. This, however, is a very complicated question, and one which wdll require all the eluci- dation that a separate discussion can confer on it. At present we shall merely observe, that the addi- tion to our prices, arising from the fall of our cur- rency, from the inferiority in value of our paper to coin, appears to have been about 15 per cent, during the latter years of the war. Rise in the Price of Labour, — To what are we to attribute the remarkable rise in the rate of la- bour during the late wars ? — To two main causes : the demand of men for the public service, and the increased expence of provisions. In the first years of the war, the rise w-as caused only bv the demand durim the War. 57 "& of men for the public service, and provisions had very httle share in the enhancement during 1793 and 1794. But after 1795, and still more after 1799, the additional cost of provisions became such as to oblige the labourer and mechanic, in self-defence, to stipulate a higher money payment for his services. A rise of wages may be either real or nomina). That which was consequent on the demand for the militia, army, and navy, proved a real and hondjide addition, the mechanic or manufacturer who remained at home being in greater request, and receiving larger pay from his employer, with- out reference to an increase in his expenditure. But a rise of wages proceeding from a rise of pro- visions is very different : the addition, in one sense, is merely a balance to the addition in another, and the augmentation is consequently nominal. To such an extent did this hold in the case of our labouring classes during the war, that the 286\ or .305. paid them weekly in our provincial towns in 1812, were hardly more available in the purciiasc of the necessaries or comforts of life, than \os. \\\ 1792. Effect of a Rise in the Price of Labour on House- keeping Exycnces. — The direct effect of s>uch a rise is readily seen in the increase of servants' wages ; but its indirect operation, its enhancement* of work performed out of doors, is of much more consequence. This will be at once a})parcnt on our analyzing the component })arts of the cost of manufactures. In cotton goods, after all the aid derived from machinery, labour still constitutes nearly a third of the price ; while in woollens, lea- .'JS Cai/sci (>fflic Rise (if Prices ihcr, liartlvvare, linen, anil })frhaps in silk, its pro- portion is more nearly a lialfl Next, as to a very clillercnt lieacl in family expenditure, that of house- rent, the chief constituent of charge is laboin*, since in a country of increasing population, the rent of houses in occupancy is regulated by the cost of new buildings ; and in regard to these, the command of materials being unlimited, the ques- tion resolves itself into a calculation of theexpence of the requisite labour. In the case of furniture, ii similar remark is applicable ; and even in ser- vices of a higher class, such as teaching or medical attendance, the influence of this cause (rise of labour) is not excluded. To the lower orders the rate of labour, in a direct sense, is of little consequence, as they are accustomed to serve themselves j but, in an in- direct sense, by enhancing corn, it proves of the greatest importance. EJfect of an Enhancement oJCorn on House-keep- ing. — A return of the ten years of peace preceding 1793, gave as the average of the quarter of wheat in the Windsor market, 2/. 10^. ^d. But thirteen years of war, from 1793 to 1805 (both inclusive), gave lor the quarter of wheat an average of 3/. I'^s. 2d.', in other words, 152/. were required to purchase the same quantity as 100/. previous to the war. And the succeeding eight years, from ISO6 to 1813, gave the still higher average of 5/. 1*. Sd. for the quarter of wheat, denoting that no less than '200/. were, during that period, required to purchase what, previous to the war, had been obtained for 100/. Such was the rise in wheat : in butcher meat, and agricultural produce generally, the en- U during the War. 59 hancement appears to liave been nearly equal ; but for these and other details, we refer to the Appendix, and proceed to lay before our readers a statement of the general result. Summary of the Rise in House-keeping at the dose of the late f'Vars, making the Cnlctdation in the most comprehensive Form, so as to be applicable, not to particular classes, but to the public at large. Proportion of rise proceeding from increase of Taxation 12 per cent. from rise of wages and labour generally ... 20 ditto from the enhancement of provisions, (see Appendix) - - 30 ditto Of this rise in provisions, we may ascribe per- haps the half (or 15 per cent.) to the rise of labour, and other farming charges consequent on the demand of men for the public service : the other 15 per cent, to the depreciation of our bank paper, enhancement of freight, and other charges attendant on import. Proportion of rise from extra charges on the purchase and import of other articles than corn ; such as wool, cotton, tobacco - 5 ditto Total - 67 per cent. Such appears to have been the operation of the different causes of enhancement diu'ing the war. We proceed to exemplify that rise by a reference to real property. Land. — The farm which, in 179^, let for I70/. ; and which, in 1803, (see the tabular return of cliarges of cultivation in the cha})ter ou Agri- culture,) afforded a rental of ^24.0/., lot in 1813, for S201. Houses. — The house which, in 179-» let for .50/., and in 180(), for ().5/., might be consiilered in ihc 60 Cicncnd Kisc <>/' Prices latter years of the war, as worth 70/., tlie rise being less at in lionses than in land. Its value, as a j)urchase, originally 1000/., was raised towards the middle of our long contest to 1300/., and eventually to 1400/. or 1500/. To deline the amount of the rise of prices in particular connnodities, would be a task of great labour and nicety : the only person who attempted it was the late Mr. Arthur Young, of whose calcu- lations we shall treat afterwards. If, for the sake of conferring some degree of precision on an ob- scure subject, an attempt be made to divide the progress of enhancement into periods, we may consider the war as having produced half its effect towards the year 1806, viz. that the rise of prices taken in the most comprehensive sense, whether of provisions, clothing, labour, or professional charges, was in that year somewhat more than 30 per cent, above the prices of 1792. From I8O6 to 1813 the rise was more rapid, in consequence of the double effect of a non-convertible currency, and extended military operations, so that in 1813 and 1814 the enhancement was 30 or 35 per cent, on the prices of 1806, or about 67 per cent, on those of 179^. Hoxcfar xvas this rise of prices 7iominal? — It is incumbent on the attentive enquirer, to guard against the error so frequent in former years, and at present by no means exploded, of considering a rise of prices in the light of a bondjide addition to our public wealth. The reader, on referring to the preceding table of house-keeping expence, and considering how different trades and professions are linked together, v.ill readily perceive the man- ner in which an individual, on the occurrence of a rise of prices in his particular de})artment, indeni- during the War. 61 nifies himself by a charge on the community. If, for the sake of ilUistration, we advert to articles of daily consumption, and to the tradesmen who are most familiar to us, we find the baker and butcher raise, of course, their demands on their customers, in proportion as the prices of their articles are raised to them by the farmer or grazier. In a similar, though not equally direct manner, the teacher augments his charge for board and instruc- tion ; the upholsterer, the price of his furniture ; the landlord, the rent of his houses. — The whole partakes of the nature of circulation ; or, to borrow an expression from Mr. S. Gray, of " charge and counter-charge.'* But a rise which is common to all can be little else than nominal. The owner of a house or land was hardly able to purchase more commodities with the increased rent, during the war, than with the limited sum paid to him in 1792. He found 130/. in 180G, or 160/. in 1813, of no greater value than 100/. at the beginning of the French Revolution ; and the correct mode of speaking is, — that land and houses rose in money rent in proportion as money de- clined in value, that is, they maintained a nearly uni- form \'alue, though the sum paid was very different. The same is applicable, as we shall see presently, to the far greater part of income, whether arising from ])roperty or labour ; from capital vested in trade, manufacture, or agriculture ; from wages, salaries, or professional charges, the sum paid hav- ing regularly increased as its value diminished. Money Property^ such as a Ijoan on Mortgage. — We here advert to a descrij)tion of property ma- terially different from lantl or houses, a property which cx])ericnces neitiier rise or fall, whatever be the fluctuations in the value of money. Sup])0se (32 (icniral Rise ufVriccs \\ sum (.3,200/.) to have been advanced on morti^age in 179*^, ^ind to liave remained on tliat security dnrini^ the war, it will hardly be denied that in sncii years as 1811 or 1812, it was con- sidered a proi)erty of" less value than ])revious to the war. The ICIO/. which tlie owner continued to draw as interest, was in these years worth to liini little more than 100/. in 1792. Proportion of national Income affected i?i this Marnier. — The reader on referring to our estimate of taxable income, in the chapter on National Revenue, will find the sums paid to annuitants, whether creditors of the public or of individuals, computed at 50,000,000/. a year, or one-fitth of the total national income. The receivers of the other fbur-fifUis, whether landholders, farmers, merchants, or manufacturers ; whether clerks, me- chanics, or country labourers, obtained in their annual income, (in the form of rent, salary, wages, he.) an addition corresponding, or nearly corre- sponding to the decline in the value of money. From this benefit were excluded the annuitants, to the extent we have mentioned ; and many of them would have felt more severely the dimi- nished value of their receipts, had it not been in- directly counterpoised by tlie activity arising from the war, and the consequent facility in providing for their connections in the public service. Since the peace, the relative situation of these great portions of the community has, as is well known, been reversed. Annuitants have found their incomes recover their \alue ; while the other classes, above all, the agriculturists, have expe- rienced the most distressing effects from the fall of prices. during the War, 63 Change in the Value of Money. — Our readers will now be able to form a definite idea of what is meant when we speak of a fall or rise in the value of money. The fall of prices since the peace has been very different in different articles ; for while in the produce in the soil it is above GO, and in several branches of manufacture above 50 per cent., in the case of house-rent, or the wages of me- chanics, it probably does not exceed 15 per cent. But the business of the statistical enquirer is with the average^ which is, doubtless, not less than 30 per cent, on all payments determined by free com- petition ; in other words, in all articles brought to open market. In payments of a different natiu-e, such as professional fees, salaries, servants' wages, the decrease is as yet inconsiderable ; because in these there exists no ready appeal to competition, no prompt means of overcoming the opposition to reduction. In London, journeymen in various trades are, in consequence of their system of com- bining, still in the receipt of 5,y. or iSs. a day, as in the season of war and expensive living; but such a state of things can hardly be of long duration. The fall of provisions, the example of other coun- tries, the diminished profit of capital, all point to the necessity of a change, and will eventually over- come resistance, whether on the part of tl\e lower orders, or of the receivers of pensions and salaries, in whom, possessing as they do better means of information and comparison, pertinacity in reten- tion would be more reprehensible. As such re- duction, therefore, will, in all probability, become general, and the words, " fall of })rice," are too limited to express a decrease of such incomes as arise from personal exertion, we adopt the more comprehensive phrase of a "rise or lull in the ^•alue of money." (j4 (iencral Rise of Prica* Prices nn the Covlineiif since 1792. — In liow far, in tlie present age, have the other countries of Knroj)e participated in those fluctuations of money wliich among us have reached so extraordinary a lengtli ? Tliis question is of no easy solution, as well from want of documents in countries which liad then no representative assembly, as from a depreciated paper having been current in almost every part of Europe. France, the only state that has equalled us in the duration of her wars, ex- hibits a remarkable contrast to us in the extent of her financial burdens. Her taxation, amounting in the beginning of the revolution, to about twenty- two millions sterling, (see the Report of Camus to the National Assembly, in July 1790), was never increased by more than the half of that sum ; while our sixteen millions of 1792, became forty-five millions in 1804; sixty millions in 1808, and nearly seventy millions in 1814. In fact, in the early part of the revolutionary war, the collection of revenue in France was (see the Due cle Gaete on French Finance), considerably under twenty mil- lions ; the wants of government having been sup- plied by the emission of assignats during four yeai's of emergency, (1792-3-4-5) and afterwards, in a considerable degree, by contributions from con- quered territories. After the fervour of the first years of the revolution, there was in France no legislative body capable of conferring credit on government stock : no exemption from cash pay- ments to facilitate to the payers of taxes, the means of reimbursing themsehes by a ready addition to wages, salaries, or professional fees. The amount emitted in the form of assignats admits of no defi- nite calculation, the value of that government paper having fallen rapidly, and having been at 21 ' during the TVar, iS5 last, ill 1796, reduced to a nullity. But if we compute at two liundred millions sterling the amount of public sacritice from the assignats, and if we add for the bankruptcy committed in regard to two-thirds of the public debt, the forced loan of 1797> i^"d the augmented taxation of the latter years of Bonaparte, two hundred millions more ; and, finally, if we add a national loss of one hun- dred millions, consequent on his inauspicious return from Elba, and the invasion of 1815, we make in all, a pecuniary sacrifice on the part of France, of five hundred millions sterling, over and above the twenty-two millions of annual expenditure neces- sary under a peace establishment. But the political strength of our southern neigh- bour lies less in money than in men, and that forced annual levy which would be so indignantly received among us, and so subversive of the resources of a commercial and manufacturine: country, proved the most effectual means of draw- ing forth the power of France. In this respect accordingly, her sacrifices have been very great, the number of men who fell in the long struggle from 1792 to 1815, estimated, on a moderate com- putation, at a million and a halfj being probably more than three times the number lost by our country, after every allowance for the destructive effect of tropical climates. In another respect, also, the neglect of education and postponement of the choice of a profession attendant on the Conscription, as well as the loss of time to those who escaped the sword and resumed a })acific occupation, form an amount of national detriment which may very fairly be put in the balance against the vast loss sustained in this country by the transi- tion from war to peace. C)6 General Rise af Pricea The Netherlands, siihjecteil iluriiifr twenty years to the sway of France, and (liirin*;- a part of the time to the Conscri})ti()n, were also ex})osed to heavy losses from the war. If less great than those of France in men, they were larger in a financial and commercial sense, as well from angmented taxation as from intern ij)ted intercourse, and the many, abortive attempts made, during the enforcement of the prohibitory decrees, to produce substitutes for coflf'ee and other articles, the growth of a tro})i- cal climate. Of the other European powers, the chief belli- gerent was Austria, whose pecuniary sacrifice was lessened by our subsidies, but whose loss in men amounted perhaps to the half of that of France. Next came Prussia, Spain, Russia, Sweden, in whose case the duration of suffering was less, but who were all doomed to feel the destructive ravag-e of war and invasion. A pressure of a more lasting kind, we mean that which is attendant on the maintenance of a large standing force, extended to every state, great and small, on the Continent, from 179'^ to 1814. Their taxation consequently in- creased, and the general demand for men was fol- lowed by a general rise in the price of labour. The impracticability of effecting loans prevented that stimulus to productive industry, that diain on the future in favour of the present which took place among us to so great an extent : nor was there in any part of the Continent a continued inadequacy of agricultural produce. Accordingly, though prices on the Continent became higher in war than they had been in peace, though during the one period the demand for labour was brisk, in the other lan- guid, the degree of difference was much smaller than with us. This topic shall be more fully treated 1? during the War. Cfjf in a subsequent part of our volume, (Appendix to Chap, ix.) but were we, for the sake of arriving at a definite estimate, to hazard a conjecture of the differ- ence between the present ])rices on tlie Continent and those of 17f)^-^, we shoukl pronounce the former about 15 per cent, higlier, being half the enhance- ment that we find in Enghmd, comparing our pre- sent prices to tiiose of 179^. This excess on our part in tiie ratio of enhance- ment, added to a nearly similar excess in prices previous to 1792, makes a total difference between this country and the Continent of from 20 to 30 per cent. The leading causes of this are our lieavy excise duties, the larger size of our towns, and the occasional operation of our corn laws. The balance against us would be still greater, were it not in a considerable degree counteracted by the cheapness of fuel and of several articles of manufacture, in particular hardware, in which our connnand of capital, our inland navigation, and our machinery, afford us a considerable advantage over the Con- tinent. Rise of Prices apparently indicative of Prosperity. — An increase in the money value of commodities, of land, houses, and stock in trade, accom})anied by a general augmentation of salaries and wages, suggested during the war the idea of a general increase of wealth in correspondence, as was com- monly believed, to the increase in our circulating medium. We have already shown that this was, in a great measure, nominal: the augmented })rice of com- modities, of" land, houses, merchandise, re(juii"ed, to represent it, a larger sum of money, but that such money was of less value. Or, if we admit F '2 f,H General Bhc of Prices thai there was in several respects an inciease of i)roperty, tliat the general briskness caused by the (liMnands of government led to an actual rise of ])rices, a rise over and above that Avliich was recjni- site to meet the alteration in the value of the cur- rency, it is fit, on the other hand, to recollect that the fixed money property of the country, such as the stocks and loans on mortgage, all underwent depreciation, because in these the same sums repre- sented a reduced value. What then was the real result? That, on the one hand, the national pro- })erty was lessened by the great additional charge arising from the war : on the other, it was aug- mented in proportion, not to the rise of prices, but to the progress of national improvement and in- crease of population. No such limitations, how- ever, were admitted in the estimate of the public, or, as far as we can perceive, in that of ministers : both confidently inferred prosperity from rise of prices, and appear never to have suspected that such a rise was deceptive, and might take its origin, in great part, from an increase of burden. What a train of misconception, w^hat a series of sanguine and fallacious notions would have been prevented, had the public been earlier aware of these simple truths ! During the Avar, the rise of price was so regular, and of such long continuance, (from 1793 to 181 i), that the majority of the pre- sent generation took for granted that it would be permanent, ascribing it less to the war and the de- mands of government, than to causes likely to be per- manent, — such as the unknown gains of our foreign commerce, or the influx of the precious metals of America. But in this, as in other points, the return of peace has undeceived us ; it has shown that the amount of our commercial gains, and the influx of 14 " during the War. Cf) 't> specie, were botli over-rated ; ami tliat the origin of Iiii;Ii prices is to be sought in less welcome causes. Of these, the demand for men for the public service, the insufficiency of our growth of corn, and the de- preciation of our bank paper, have all, for some time,^ ceased to operate, but their effects have by no means ceased ; while the fburtli cause, we mean taxation, continues to press on us with almost undiminished rii>'our. ILvll of high Prices wheii peculiar to a Country. — The pernicious tendency of fluctuation in the value of money is generally admitted, but that of a ge- neral rise of prices is less understood : it is even the notion of a number of writers, and of a still greater number of practical men, that taxation, though a great cause of enhancement, is productive of no injury in a public sense, because the money thus collected is almost all expended at home. This idea has induced the writer already men- tioned (Mr. S. Gray), whose views, sound and liberal in several respects, are in others greatly im- paired by over-confidence, to give our national debt the convenient name of " public service ca- ])ital." " The payment of the interest is,** says Mr. Gray, in the work entitled, * All Classes pro- ductive of National Wealth,* (p. 13G.) " no dis- advantage : the public is just where it was before : they have had thirty millions charged on them, for the interest of the national debt, and they have charged thirty millions in return.'* — All this might be true were the British Islands a distinct })lanet, or were they separated from the rest of the world by a " wall of brass ten thousand cubits high : '* l)ut, doomed as we are to intercourse with our con- tinental brethren, does not an excess of taxation place us under a great relati\e tlisad\antage in a 1-^ 3 JO General Rise uf Prices competition witli foreign nuinufacturers ? And, before the liill in our corn market, was it not to be apprehended, tliat our capitalists might transfer to less burdened countries, tliat money, that ma- chinery, and, in part, those hands, which have so eflTectually conduced to make us support our finan- cial pressure? A writer of great notoriety, without carrying his doctrine so far as Mr. Gray, expresses, in more places than one, an opinion that high taxation im- poses on us no disadvantage relatively to our neigh- bours, or, to use his own words, that *' a generally high })rice of commodities in consequence of tax- ation would be of no disadvantage to a state." * This opinion Mr. Ilicardo repeats in another pas- sage (p. 305.) where he says, that the " amount of taxes and the increased price of labour in a coun- try does not, according to his ideas, place it under any other disadvantage with respect to foreign countries, except the unavoidable one of paying these taxes.'* But he soon after makes a highly important qualification, by admitting that these charges render it the interest of every contributor to " withdraw his shoulder from the burden, and, in many cases, to remove himself and liis capital to another country ;" a course replete with the most injurious results. Were we to suppose, for the sake of illustration, that the whole of the civihzed world, the whole of the states who carry on a commercial intercourse with each other, were simultaneously involved in war, and obliged to impose on themselves burdens which bear the same proportion to the taxable income of each : — the consequence would be a * Ilicardo on Political Econoiuy, 2d edition, p. 283. during the War. 71 concurrent and uniform rise of prices ; and a con- test, after lasting twenty years, miglit terminate without any relative disadvantage to any of the belligerents, as far as regarded thek finances, or the state of their productive labour. But in every war there are certain states, whose rulers have the prudence to avoid participating in the unprofitable struggle, and who secure to their subjects the ad- vantages of neutrality, along with an exemption from the burdens entailed on their neighbours. Such, in the present age, was the case of Denmark until I8O7 : such also was, for a time, the case of Sweden, Prussia, and, above all, of the United States of America. Holland, a country particularly inclined to a pacific policy, has, firom her geographical position, been unavoidably involved in most of the great contests which have taken place since she became a power, so that, during the last two centuries, her history exhibits hardly any period of exemption from them, except in the war of 1756. We, whe- ther from the necessity or belligerent ardour, have so seldom enjoyed the blessing of neutrality, that to trace it in our history, we are obliged to reciu" to the reign of James I., who, whatever might be his weakness in other respects, stedfastly maintained peace amidst the convulsions of Germany, the dis- sensions of France, the prolonged hostilities of Spain and Holland. A striking illustration, not indeed of neutrality, but of that prudent mode of warfare which secures national independence, with- out aiming at foreign acquisitions, is to be found in the troubled reign of Elizabeth, and the wise administration of Cecil. How different would have been our situation in regard to pubUc burdens, had 1- 4 7'i (itiural Rise ()f' Prices (luring I lie War. tlie reins of «;ovcrnmcnt \\\ the ])rcsent age been held by such experienced hands ! Elfi'cl of the Rise of Prices on our Finances. — This rise, hke all artificial clianges, was pro- iluctive of little j)ermanent eHect : it increased the numerical amount of the revenue, but it was ultimately followed by an equivalent loss in aug- mented expenditure ; enhancing stores, salaries, the pay of the army and navy, in short, almost every object of government disburse. Unluckily, the amount of our loans was greatest at the time that money was of the least value. If we calculate the debt contracted since 1792 at 460,000,000/., and divide the period with reference to the value of money, we shall find that the smaller part of this debt was incurred when money was more valuable than at present, the larger when money was more depreciated. Since the cessation of war, money has risen progressively in value, and the interest of our debt, without augmenting in amount, has increased in pressure to a degree which, coupled with the evils of sudden transition, has unfortunately borne hard on the majority of the public. 73 CHAP. IV. Our Currcnc}) and Exchanges since 1 792. Having now traced the fluctuation in the price of commodities during the last thirty years, we proceed to a topic closely connected with it, the variations in our continental exchanges. In this, one of our chief objects will be to describe the operation of our subsidies, and of our purchases, occasionally to a great amount, of foreign corn; these being the causes which mainly affect our exchanges, and are productive of great and rapid fluctuation. They are, in general, demands both of large amount, and of sudden occurrence, super- added to our customary disburse, and requiring to be paid before time can be given to our merchants and manufacturers to prepare and send abroad an equivalent amount in commodities. This chap- ter will accordingly comprise, A historical sketch of our continental ex- changes ; The eflects of the exemption of the Bank from cash payments ; and The questions of depreciation and over-issue. Historical Sketch of our Excf/angoi. From 17D'2 /o 1707.— In the lir^t year of the war, our participation iu the contest produced little eliect ou the exchange, in consequence ot 74 Our Currcncjj and Exchanges. our aitl hein*^ liirnished less in money tlian in troops iuul military stores. Next siimmei- (I7fjl') a sudden depression was produced Ijy the remit- tances commenced for the Prussian sul)sidy; but it ceased as soon as it became known that that ])ower, a far less zealous ally in those days than subsequently, was not likely to fulfil its engage- ments. In 1795, circumstances became very different : oiu- troops had been withdrawn from the Continent, our contribution to the allied cause was made, in a great measure, in money, and an unfortunate deficiency in our harvest, forced us to make large importations of corn. A balance from commercial payments began thus to be added to the remittances of government, and the result was a considerable fall in the exchange ; money in England becoming inferior in value by five per cent, to the money of the Continent. This dif- ference was of serious moment to the Bank, and obliged them to limit greatly the discount of mercantile bills, under an apprehension that the notes issued for such discount would be presented at the Bank for specie, and the latter exported to the Continent. Of the distress caused to mer- chants by this limitation, those only can judge who witnessed the pecuniary difficulties of 1795 an4 179^^ or who have had access to read in the parliamentary papers the anxious correspondence of that date between Mr. Pitt and the Bank di- rectors. At one time (November, 1795) the price of gold, when purchased with Bank notes, had risen to eight per cent, above its value in coin, and necessitated a farther and most distressing reduction of Bank paper. In the autumn of 1796, a better harvest delivered us from one cause of drain ; but towards the end of that year, and the Our Currencij and Exchanges. 75 beginning of 1797» distrust and alarm were re- newed by a threatened invasion from France. The failure of several country banks having unluckily occurred at that critical moment, tlie consequence was a run on other country banks, and a great de- mand for gold from the Bank of England. In vain did the Directors resort to their hitherto unfailing expedient, a reduction of the quantity of their notes: the evil was new and peculiar ; the drain conti- nued without a prospect of abatement, when, after bringing down their circulation to nearly 8, (iOO, 000/. and communicating their situation to ministers, the Directors received, on the 25th February, 1797, the well-known injunction from the Privy Council, to suspend all farther payments in cash. This order, limited at first to a few weeks, was soon after prolonged to the end ofthe current session of parliament, and eventually to the opening of the succeeding session. In the interval, circumstances became more favourable, corn was abundant, our continental subsidies drew to a close, our exports of merchandize were large, the exchange rose, and specie flowed into the country from causes very similar to those which had lately made it flow out. The bank was now in a state to resume cash })ay- ments; but parliament, finding that no >incon- venience had resulted from the suspension, deter- mined to adhere to it, and passed resolutions which made exemption from cash payments be con- sidered our settled policy during the remainder of the war. From \l^.)'-i to 1802. — The year 1708 was more than usually pros})erous, l)eing marked by a favour- able season at home, an exemption from the bur- den of subsidies abroad, and distinguished success 70 Our Cunrnci/ and E^rclum^cs. in our n:i\ al operations. Confidence bein*^ now re- stored, money became more rapid of circulation and comparatively plentiful, while our exclian^es with the Continent experienced no full, althou<;h our bank pai)er was no longer convertible into cash, ■^riie succeeding year, however, ])resented a very iliflerent spectacle : Austria, encouraged by a Bri- tish subsidy and the co-operation of Russia, took the field against France, and hardly did intelligence arrive of the formation of this second coalition, and of an engagement for a double subsidy, when our exchanges began to bear the mark of rapid declen- sion. The summer of 1799 was wet, and it unfor- tunately happened, as in 1796, that large purchases of corn were necessary at the time of the greatest pressure of foreign expenditure. Such continued our situation during the summer and autumn of 1800, when the successes of Bonaparte in Italy, and of Moreau in Germany, brought our subsidies to a close. Relief would now have been felt, had not the calamity of a deficient harvest taken place in 1800, and raised the price of corn during that and the following year to an unexampled height. The total value of our corn imports during 1800, 1801, and part of 1802, was declared in evidence before a parliamentary committee to be no less than 15,000,000/. sterling. Of all the trials our money system had yet expe- rienced, this was the most severe ; and it was ac- cordingly in 1800, that the effects of the non-con- vertibility of our bank paper became distinctly visible in the state of our exchanges. The wants of the merchants drove them to the bank for dis- counts, and their demands were supplied with a confidence which the Directors would not have ven- tured to exercise, had they been liable to pay in Our Currency and Edrlianges. 77 specie. This accommodation, thougli far from be- neficial in its remote consequences, served at the time to lessen to the public the evils arising from the fall of the exchange, and the subsequent depre- ciation of our paper (between three and five j)ei cent.) was hardly perceived, either by us or by foreigners. The charge most open to observation was in the materials of our currency : our guineas had now, for the most part, gone abroad, and our small-note circulation, insignificant during 1797, 179s, and part of 1799, became augmented in 1800, 1801, and 1802, to four millions, exclusive of the small notes of our provincial banks. From 1803 to 1808. — The peace of Amiens was too short to admit of the repeal of the Restriction Act, and on the renewal of war, all idea of re))eal was relinquished, a continuance of the sus})ension being considered an essential part of our })()hcy. Unattended by continental subsidies, or by the ne- cessity of corn imports, the years 1803, 1801<, and part of 1805, passed over without pecuniary pres- sure ; and when, in the hitter part of 1805, the formation of a new coalition produced a sudden revolution in the exchange, its duration was mo- mentary, for the day of Austerlitz, so disastrous in other respects, dispelled the cloud that was gatlier- ing over our financial horizon, and showed in the distance the suspension of our continental remit- tances. Next year, war ensued between Prussia and France, but that contest took place at a time when we had a ministry (the Whigs and Grcnvilles) sparing in their advances to our continental allies : the exchange was not seriously affected, and after the peace of Tilsit (July I8O7) began \isibly to re- cover. 78 0//r CinTcncij (nid Karliangcs. Four years of the war luul tliiis ])assc(l without any material inconvenience from the non-converti- bihty of our bank })aj)er, ami its depreciation, still unknown to the j)ublic, had been but partially in- jurious. We are now, liowever, arrived at a difl'er- ent iura ; a period when our hatred of Bonaparte, the confidence inspired by our decisive superiority at sea, and the influence of enthusiastic counsellors at home, made us forget calmer considerations, and join in a general call for a " system of vigour." The sufferings of several great branches of our commerce; the stagnation of our East India trade; the progressive sinking of West India property ; the diminished profit of ship owning; — misfortunes arising chiefly from heavy taxes and increased charges, were ascribed by many of the distressed parties to the competition of the Americans. Com- mercial jealousies have never been inactive : the American navigators had become in our eyes, what the Dutch had been in those of our ancestors un- der Cromwell and Charles II. ; and our merchants liad no great difficulty in persuading a ministry, elated with our success at Copenhagen, and little versed in the sources of national w ealth, that when neutral navigation should be controlled, the Conti- nent must di'aw its supplies through the mediimi of Eniiland. Hence our Orders in council of Novem- ber, 1807, orders issued with so much ardour, with such confidence of a fa\ourable residt, that our government paid no attention to the singular fact, that the intercourse they were so anxious to control, was, in the opinion of our enemies, highly advan- tageous to us ; for Bonaparte had, almost at the same moment, intimated to the American ambassa- dor at Paris, his intention to prohibit it, declaring that " all maritime commerce tolerated on the Con- Our Currency and Exchanges. 79 tinent, whether through Americans or others, must turn to the advantaoe of" England." These re- markable measures, joined to an embargo adopted by the American government, produced an almost complete suspension of intercourse between the United States and Europe, during 1808; the first time that such had been the case during twenty- five years. Our stoppage of the American navigation is, we believe, the greatest error on record in mercan- tile history. Our trade with that country which, on the acknowledgment of its independence in 1783, we considered as wrested from our grasp, had proceeded in a i^atio of continued increase, affording both advantage to the parties engaged, and the most gratifying lessons to those who, studying in the closet the sources of national pros- perity, are enabled to discover how often the real are at variance with the apparent causes. This increase showed first that political and even national antipa- thies do not impede commerce between indi\ iduals, and that it is perfectly practicable to reap benefit from countries that were once our colonies, without the charge of defending them. It showed further the still more important truth, that *' the greater the freedom of the trade of the Americans, the more active their intercourse with France, Holland, and other countries, the greater was the advantage arising to us." In what manner, it may be asked, did it produce that result; a result so contrary to the tenets of the mercantile theory and of the colonial system, not of this country only, but of all Europe ? From a cause of which the explanation, at first somewhat complicated, becomes, when examineil, sufficicntiv easy and convincing — the iucreasc of American so Oi/r Ciirroicij and Ka:ch(mges. capital consequent on unfettered trade, and the ilireclion of a larger sliare of it to the purchase of our manufactures. Our exports to tlic United States amounted in 1805, 180fi, and I8O7, to the very large sum of 11 or 12,000,000/. sterling, while our im])orts from that country (Seybert's Statistical Annals, pp. 137. 1-55.) did not exceed 7 or 8,000,000/. : the remainder (Baring on the Orders in Council, p. 155.) was remitted to us in money, or, what is the same thing, in bills of ex- change from the Continent of Europe, being the proceeds of tobacco, cotton, rice, and otlicr American products sold there. The Continent, feeble at that time in its stock of manufacture and means of giving credit, could not supply the Americans with merchandize equal to more than half the articles which it imported from them ; and the result was the transmission of the proceeds to this country, a course which supplied us with funds for our continental expenditure as regularly as the packets crossed the narrow seas. Such was the trade stopped by our Orders in Council; a measure which, persisted in with blind pertinacity from year to year, drove the Americans first to the temporary expedient of an embargo, afterwards to the establishment of manufactures in their own country, and, eventually, to a declaration of war. JP/ WW 1808 to 1814. — This stoppage, sufficient of itself to produce a rapid fall in the exchange, was unluckily coincident in point of time with a heavy drain of money to Portugal and Spain, in support of the contest with France. From the Appendix to the Report of the Bullion Committee, (p. 23^2.) it appears that nearl}- three millions ster- ling were sent in specie to the Peninsula in 1808. Our Currencij and Ejrlicuige.s. 81 Next year neutral intercourse was, in a great measure, resinned, and the hazard of pecuniary embarrassment would have been less serious, had we not unfortunately been visited by the other great cause of pressure on our foreign exchanges, a deficient harvest. It became intUspensable, therefore, to import corn at an unfortunate mo- ment; at a time when, from other causes, our bank notes were at a depreciation of twelve or fifteen ])er cent. And the sum paid to foreigners for corn in 1810 being very large, cxceedhig (see the return to Parhament in the following year) seven millions sterling, our exchanges fell so as to bring our bank paper more than twenty per cent, below bullion. This fall took })lace some time after the public attention had been drawn to the subject by the Report of the Bullion Connniftee ; and, great as it was, it would have been still greater, had not the abundant harvest of 1810 come most oj)portunely to our relief. The autumn of 1810 was the first season in which the decrees of Bonaparte against our intercourse with the Continent were actually carried into effect. He had then brought his w^ar with Austria to a close, secured himself by an alliance with that power, and concei\ed, from the fall of our bank paper and the multitude of our mercantile failures, the hope that a vigorous enforcement of his decrees would complete the measure of our embarrassment. Hence, in the winter of 1810, the general seizure of British shipping Id the Prussian harbours ; hence also the ridiculous mea- sure of burning quantities of our merchandize in his sea-ports. In 1811 our corn im])orts were inconsider- able; but the operations of neutral conmioice (i 82 Our Cunenctf and EocchanffOi. were much cramped, our remittances to the Penin- sula were large, and our exchanges extremely low. The same causes operated with increased effect in 181^, the year that our discussions with the United States unfortunately terminated in war. Happily, towards the end of" tliat year, the result of the Russian campaign opened a cheering prospect in the political horizon ; but the result was remote ; a great struggle was still necessary, and the campaign of 1813 required exertions in Spain, and aid to our allies in Germany, on a scale of unparalleled magnitude. By this time our me- tallic currency was exhausted, and the specie bought up for the cause of the Continent, was paid for by government in bank notes, at the enormous premium of twenty-five or thirty per cent. Such continued to be the difference between paper and coin, until the overthrow of Bonaparte in April, 1814,*after which the difference diminished to ten, and even to eight per cent. His return from Elba in 1815, and the vast preparations forth- with made on the Continent by us and our allies, again lowered the exchange to twenty, and even twenty-five per cent. — a fall which, after his second overthrow, disappeared with a rapidity that seemed destined to exemplify the arguments of the anti- bullionists ; of tliose who maintained that the de- preciation of our notes arose not from over-issue, but from continental demands. Oicr Currenaf and Exchanges. 83 Tabular Sketch of the principal Demands on our Currency for Continental Subsidies ana Purchases of Corn since 1792. Years. 1792. 1793. 1794. Events Political and Commercial. Peace. Great mercantile fail- ures: limitation of our paper currency. Confidence reinstated. 1795. Subsidy to Austria. 1796. Subsidy continued, & an importation of corn. 1797. Reduction of our paper currency; great scar- city of money. (The Bank was exempted from cash 1798. Neither subsidy nor corn import. 1799. Renewed subsidies fol- lowed by a deficient harvest. 1800. Continuation of subsidy to Austria; great im- portation of corn. 1801. Subsidy suspended, but cornimport continued. 1802. Peace. From 1802 No large importation of to 1808. corn, except in the summer of 1805; nor any subsidy of mag- nitude, except in the autumn of that year. From 1808 War in Portugal and to 1814. Spain throughout the whole period ; war in Germany in 1809 ; G ^ State of our Exdumge with the Continent. A little above par. A considerable rise in the Exchange. Exchange nearly as in 1792. A fall at first small, after- wards considerable. Exchange continues very low. A considerable rise in the exchange ; large im- ports of specie. payments in Feb. 1797.) Exchange continues in our favour. Fall of the exchange after Midsummer. Continued depression. Continued depression. Exchange reinstated. The exchange little af- fected during these six years, except in the autumn and winter of 1805. The fall in the exchange great and permanent, beginning at eight or ten percent-increasing 84. Our ('uvrcnc}! and Eachamxcs. Years. 1814. 1815. Evt'iifs Poliliccal arnl Commercial. in Russia in 1812, and in Germany & France in 1813 and 1814. Corn purchases to a great amount in 1810. The Americans ex- cluded from inter- course with the Con- tinent after 1808, but more particularly af- ter 1810. Peace after 1st April, and a great increase in the export of our mer- chandize, but a con- tinuance of remit- tances for subsidies and corn imports. In April, May, June, renewal of war. In August and Septem- ber, peace; cessation of corn imports; re- newal of American intercourse. 1816. No subsidy or import of corn. 1817. 1818. Large imports of corn. From 1819 No import of corn or to 1823. heavy continental charge. Stntc of our Excltange with thf Continent. to twelve, fifteen, twen- ty-five, and eventually to nearly thirty per cent. A considerable reinstate- ment of the exchange, leaving it from only eight to ten per cent, against England. Fall of the exchange twenty and twenty -five per cent. The exchange recovered and brought first within twelve per cent., after- wards within five per cent, of par. Exchange nearly at par. Exchange again lowered three, four, five, and eventually six percent. Exchange recovers; rises to par in 1820, and has since continued somewhat above par. Distribution into Periods during the War. — The years in the preceding table may be classed into periods, each marked by distmct features. The first, from 1793 to 1797, preceded the exemption Our Currency and Exchanges. 85 act : after that act came an interval of two years, during which, from a concurrence of favourable circumstances, the non-convertibility of our bank paper was not productive of depreciation. A very different scene was opened by the transactions of the three years between the summer of 1799 and that of 180^2; years of heavy continental demand and of great pressure on the exchange. It was, however, reinstated by the peace ; nor did it ex- perience any pressure of magnitude or long con- tinuance during the long interval tliat elapsed from the autumn of 1802 to that of 1808. This period of six years is perhaps the most remarkable of the whole, exliibiting tlie possibility of carr}ing on a war of great expence, without a material de- rangement of our currency, so long as we left to trade its free course, and abstained from great con- tinental advances. It was, doubtless, this long enjoyment of financial ease, this apparent stability of our money system, that inspired our ministers and bank directors witli over confidence, leading tlie former to their unfortunate measures against the American trade, and impressing the latter (Evidence, Bulhon Report, pp. 89. 9(). 1 14.) with tlie notion that their issues of paper had no effect on the exchange. To the measures founded on these views, and to the events noticed in the pre- ceding table, is to be ascribed the depreciation that prevailed during the last period of the war — the five years from 1809 to 1814. Total of our Corn Imports and Si//)sidics. — In computing the former, it is lit to bear in mind that we had become previously to 179i^, a corn import- ing country, and that a certain quantity might be termed our habitual supply; an import not affecting 86 Our Currenci/ and Exchanges. the exchaiii^e, but })iii(i hy a correspond ini^ export of our produce or manufactures; our coals, our tin, our hardware, our cottons. We dwell, therefore, only on the years of scarcity and extra import, which, during the war, were 179^, 1800, 1801, 180'-2, 1805, 1810. After deducting from our total supply in these years our average annual im})ort, there remains, as extra import, a quantity of which the cost, in the six years collectively, was not short of 25,000,000/. Next as to the amount of our subsidies : the total during twenty-one years, from 1793 to 1814, was between 50 and 60,000,000/., form- ing with the corn purchases, an aggregate of 80,000,000/. Of this great sum, what proportion was sent abroad in the shape of specie ? Of the subsidies, the chief part was supplied in clothing, arms, stores ; of our corn purchases, the larger share was necessarily paid in money. If, without attempting nicety of calculation, we assume the export of specie for these purposes during the whole war at 30,000,000/., we shall be at no loss to account for the disappearance of our metallic currency, and of such supplies of bullion as found their way to this country. Our E.Tchajiges since the Peace. — Since the peace, the different periods, though less mark- ed by extremes, have been equally deserving of attention, as illustrative of our view^ of the causes of fluctuation. In the autumn of 1814 our war charges ceased, our exports had free ac- cess to the Continent, and the exchange altered from twenty-five to ten, and even eight per cent, only, against us : it would have risen farther, had not our corn imports been large. But no sooner Our Currency and Exchanges. 87 did the return of Bonaparte from Elba revive tlie alarm of war and subsidies, than the exchange fell to eighteen, twenty, and twenty-tive per cent. ; a depression from which it recovered as suddenly after the battle of Waterloo, and the prospect of a speedy })eace. During 181(i there was neither corn import nor subsidy; the American trade with the Continent was open, and the exchange returned to par, at which it for some time remained ; but the deficient harvest of that year necessitated in 181 7 corn imports on a very large scale, reduced the exchange, and would have completely overset it, had not all the coimteracting causes of free trade been in operation. By their aid we were enabled, during 1817, 1818, and tlie early part of 1819, to pay for an unexampled amount of foreign corn, (above 20,000,000/. as appears by the Appendix to the Agricultural Report of 1821, p. 396.) without a greater depreciation than four, five, or six per cent. Since 1819, these drains have ceased, and the exchange has been steadily in our favour. Our Bank Paper: — Contradictor}! Opinions on the Subject. We have now brought to a close our historical sketch, and shall proceed to make some remarks on the very opposite doctrines held in regard to our* paper currency, by the adherents of ministry and o])position ; or, to speak more correctly, by the adversaries and supporters of the Bullion Committee of 1810. The former are still un- willing to admit the existence of depreciation in our bank paper, even in the latter years of the war : the latter equally unreasonable, refuse to trace such depreciation to tiie extra demands made G 4 88 Our ( tirrcurij and Kdcliaji^u;cs. on lis [\)\ siibsidii's and corn purcliast's, and insist that it originatcil in over issue on the part otour banks. A singular discre])ancy this, in a country of free discussion, after the direction of so much reasoning to the subject, and the hi})se of so many years re})lete with commercial and political inform- ation. 'J'his discrepancy implies, we apprehend, more than the absence of impartiality : it gives cause to suspect in one party, an inadequate know- ledge of the })rinciples of productive industry ; in the other, an insufficient attention to the evidence of facts. In attempting to point out the manner in which both have deviated from impartial inquiry, and exceeded the limits of fair inference, we shall proceed as much as possible by a reference to documents. We shall have little difficulty in de- scribing the nature of our currency previous to 1797» initl the effect produced on it by sudden drains for continental disburse: our more intricate task will be to define the results of the exemption act, the operation of which, has, from very dif- ferent views, been considerably over-rated by each party. The buUionists attribute to it the whole, or nearly the whole, of the enhancement of com- modities during the war ; while their opponents, regarding it as no less potent in good, than theii' antagonists in evil, are accustomed to speak of it as almost the sole engine of our financial support. Both sides forget that these effects are too great for the cause, and that the exemption act was coincident in point of time with a change in our financial system, of still more powerful operation ; we mean the increase of our war taxes and the reduction of our loans. Our Cuvrencij and Ej:clianges. 81) Our Money Sijutem jyrevious to 1797- — Tlie nature of our money system will be best understood bv a comparison with that of the neiglibouring coun- tries. The amount of money circulating in France was com])uted, or rather guessed by Necker at 80,000,000/. sterling ; the amount in England anil Scotland, not ascertained with more certainty than that of France, is supposed (Bank Committee Re- port, May, 1819,) to be between 50 and 60,000,000/. The currency of France is almost entirely metallic : there are in that country no banks of ckcuhition, except the bank of Paris, and none of its notes being below 20/., paper forms a very small part of the circulating medium. A foreigner may reside many years in a provincial town in France without seeing a bank note, and may occasionally hear the natives speak of having seen them as of a cir<;um- stance somewhat unusual and remarkable. France is consequently prevented from saving interest on 40 or 50,000,000/. of metallic currency, the ])lace of which, were the banking system general, might be suj)plied by paper. The case of France is, in a jrreat measure, that of the Continent at larire ; while in this country, on the other hand, the saving arising from bank paper has been enjoyed, in a greater or less degree, for more than a century. In what maimer was this saving accomplished before the exemption from cash })ayments in 1797? A bank of good character issued notes to an ex- tent of four or five times the amount of the gold kept in its coffers, a circulation of 100,000/. being maintained in ordinary times without a greater re- serve or dead fund than between 20, and 30,000/. leaving above 7^,000/. to be vested in })roductive securities, such as short-dated acceptances, ex- chequer bills, or the public lunds, all possessing a 90 Our Currenci) and Exchanges. characfcristic indispensable to a banker, that of speedy convertibibty into cash. Hence an income to tlie banking-house of 2 or 3,000/. a-year arising from perfectly fair sources ; its credit and the su- perior convenience of paper to metallic currency. This saving, considered in a general sense, was such as to form a national object, England having, even previous to the exemption act, economised the interest on a sum probably exceeding 20,000,000/. of its currency. Such was the state of our money system in the early years of the revohitionary war, when the con- fident character of our ministers and the surpris- ing exeiiions of France led to an unexampled extension of our continental expenditure. It be- came particularly heavy in 1795, and unfortunately a deficient harvest in that year necessitated in 1796 large purchases of foreign corn, augmenting greatly the demand on the bank for metallic currency : hence a reduction of its chscounts to merchants, a reluctance or rather inability to make the advances required by government, and a general embarrass- ment in the money-market. Under such circum- stances, nothing could be more natural to all parties than to look for relief in exempting the bank from the necessity of paying cash for its notes ; a measure that would enable it to continue its customary ac- commodation to trade, while government should meet the wants of our allies with our spare coin and bullion. The experiment, however, was too bold and noA-el to be adopted as a matter of choice ; it was delayed imtil the continued call for guineas in February 1797 left no other alternative. Its adoption excited both surprise and distrust, but was divested of a part of its alarming character by the known solvency of the bank ; and the acknow- Our Currencij and Exchanges. |jl ledged discretion of those to whom the new pri- vilege was to be entrusted. A farther source of" confidence was afforded to the few who knew the regukitions of the bank, by tlie fact that the personal interest of a director is very slightly promoted by an increase of the income of the establishment. Effects of tlie Restriction Act. — This decisive measure, which ought rather to be called an ex- emption than a restriction act, was limited at first to a few months, and the exchange being favourable during 1797> the bank made ample provision by the autumn of that year for the resumption of cash payments. But that step being deemed unneces- sary by government, the exemption assumed the character of a permanent war measure, and enabled the bank to give a greater latitude to its accom- modation both to merchants and the treasury. What were the chief characteristics of our money system in the succeeding years ? A relief from such pecuniary difficulties as those of 1796 ; an increase of our paper circulation, at first small, afterwards considerable, and eventually very large. Next, in regard to the value of our notes compared to coin or bullion, there was, after 1799, a fall (about four per cent.) in the value of our notes, whicli long- remained uniform, but was followed, after 1809, by a new and much greater fall. Lastly, the general rise in prices, though it in part preceded the exemp- tion act, and originated consequently in other causes, continued during the whole period of the non-con- vertibility of our bank notes, and became greatest during their greatest depreciation. These facts are admitted by all parties ; the difficulty is in tracing them to theij- origin, and in 92 Our Currency and Eixkanij^c'.s. disrrimiiiatiMi,^ liow far the exemption act was or was not instrumental in ))roducin^ tliem. Opinion of the Bullion Committee. — TJie writers of the BulHon Report, aware that the amount of hank notes in circulation had been materially increased, as well as that the scale of discounts (Report, p. 26.) had been greatly enlarged, na- turally became impressed with the idea of over- issue, and ascribed to it almost exclusively the great rise in our prices during the war. But this opinion, when given in the unqualified terms adopted by them and their supporters, is liable to serious objections. First, the amount of Bank of England notes in circulation affords, as we have more fully shown in the Appendix, no satisfactory criterion for estimating the increase of our whole circulating mediimi, as part of the bank paper may be a substitute for coin sent abroad. In the next place, the means possessed by the Bullion Com- mittee of appreciating the effect of the various other causes of enhancement were very limited : no evidence W'as given as to the rise of prices prior to the exemption act ; no reasoning attempted in retrard to the effect of war in this auo-mentatiori. Neither the framers of the Report, nor those who wrote and s])oke most confidently on the subject, possessed an accurate knowledge of the increase of our productive industry consequent on the w^ar, or even of the increase of our population. Had Mr. Horner or Mr. Huskisson been aware of these vital truths, — had they know n how^ materially prices were affected by causes altogether distinct from our paper currency, such as the demand for men for the public service, and the insufficiency of our growth of corn to our consumption, the conclu- Our Currenci/ and luvchangcs. \}S sions of the Report would have l)een materially different. The various facts and arguments ad- duced in our ])reeeding ciiapters, show liow large an addition to our currency was indispensable to transact our extended business, to correspond with our augmented prices. And when to this is added a reason, different in its nature, but equal in its operation — the inducement after 1799 to export our metallic currency to the Continent, we shall find ample means of accounting for a fact which we admit to be at first calculated to excite surprise, the increase of our bank paper. What then were the results distinctly attribut- able to the exemption act ; and, in the first place, what was its effect on the rules followed by the Bank of England in regard to discounts ? Its effect was highly beneficial to that Corporation : the Directors were relieved by it from the necessity of watching continental exchanges, from the appre- hension of a drain of metallic currency on the a])proach of a subsidy, or a large import of corn ; the rules of discount became greatly simplified, and, after some years, the Directors considered themselves at liberty to issue notes to whoever tendered bills possessing the requisite of solidity, and the less easily ascertained characteristic of being for a bondjide transaction. Countrij Banks. — In regard to these, the })rovi- sion made by the act, if not properly an exemption, was an accommodation of great importance. They were relieved fi-om the necessity of paying cash if they tendered Bank of Kngland notes, a supply of which was attainable (Evick^nce of Mr. Baring before the Committees on Cash Payments) without the uncertainty and loss so frequently attendant on the 94 Our Currency/ (tnd Kacluai^cs. acquisition of coin. A stock of notes could be procured at very short notice in exchange for the mercantile acceptances or other securities in which the funds of country banks are generally vested ; and the latter, thus relieved from much expense and anxiety, were enabled to lessen greatly tlieir reserve fund, and consequently to extend their discounts. Such were the effects of the act in regard to banks : to the public the principal result was a re- lief from scarcity of money. \i\ for the sake of calculation, we assume that in 179^^ the total bank paper in circulation in the kingdom was 2.5,000,000/., and that 7,000,000/. of coin were kept in depot, we may safely infer that _of those 7>CKX),000/. two-thirds became in the course of a few years, disposable for the purpose of discount. Now, if from the rapidity of our transfers, a million of money suffice to circidate merchandize to the value of twenty or thirty mil- lions, the change, arising from the addition of four or five millions to our currency, could not be other\vise than great in its degree, and extensive in its operation. Continental demands arose in 1799, and were carried during three years to an unex- ampled height : these the exemption act enabled us to meet by sending abroad our coin, exempting us, not indeed from a depreciation of our currency, but from pecuniary sti^aits. The act had another, though as yet unnoticed result — that of counteracthig the tendency of our public loans to raise the rate of interest. What, it may be asked, was the current or average rate of interest previous to 1793 ? If we form our comput- ation, not on the price of stocks, which from arti- 9 Our Currency and Eo'changes. \)5 ficial causes fluctuated greatly, but on the general transactions of merchants, bankers, and capitalists, we shall find it to have been between four and five per cent. ; and if we apply a similar mode of cal- culation to the war, we shall have reason to fix the average rate of interest between five and six per cent., the charge of commission, and other small additions familiar to persons in business (Evidence to the Bullion Repoit, p. 124.) accounting for the excess above the statutory limit. The effect of a war, the most expensive ever waged, was therefore to raise interest only one per cent. ; an effect evi- dently disproportioned to the unexampled calls made on oiu' national capital, and the cause of which is, doubtless, in a great measure to be sought in the reduction of the charge of banking conse- quent on the exemption act. The Question of Depreciation and Over -issue. — We are now arrived at the most important ques- tion in the history of our currency ; a question in which the advocates of the Bank and those of the Bullion Committee are directly at variance. The former maintain that the public possessed, after 1797? the same power of limitation as before, Both in withholding bills for discount, and in pay- ing over their notes to the Treasury, an absorbent to the extent of 1 or 2,000,000/. a week. Their antagonists, without denying this, which in fact cannot be controverted, appeal to the state of the bullion market in the latter years of the war ; to the acknowledged inferiority of bank notes ; and to the formidable argument, that a contraction of the amount in circulation would, at any time, have raised their value, and, if" carried sufficiently far, have brought them on a par with coin. 96 '-i'lfc Question uj Such was the substance of tlie reasoiiiiii^ ad- duced in the various speeches and publications on tliis subject in 1810 and 1811 : such are still, in a great measure, the tenets of the adverse parties ; each interpreting, in conformity with their own theory, the fluctuations that have occurred since the peace. No si)eaker in parliament, no writer on trade or finance has, as far as we are aware, endeavoured to reconcile arguments at present so strongly in contradiction, or sougiit a solution of the problem, while he admitted the substance of the allegations on either side. Tliis we shall now attempt, and as we enter on the discussion with an advantage unknown to our predecessors, — the evi- dence supplied by several years of peace, — we are not without hopes of conducting our readers to a satisfactory conclusion, if they will summon patience to accompany us thiough an enquiry which can hardly fail to be both long and intricate. If the narrators of military events, wlien entering on the relation of complicated movements, deem it neces- sary to make a demand of patient attention on the part of their readers, much more is such a warning required when we venture on a question which has been a source of perplexity to the public for a number of years. Difference bctxveen an Increase of Bank Paper and an Increase of Metallic Currency. — The ease with which bank notes are struck ofl| and tlie apparent ease with which they are circulated, impressed the public, long before the late wars, with a notion, that banking operated like mining; and the ge- neral rise of prices that took place atler 17<34, was, by many, ascribed to that cause. Fortunately, Dr. Smith was then alive to combat prejudice in Depreciation and Ovcr-issne. 97 the people, or error in their rulers : he undeceived the puhhc in this important j)oint, and showed (Wealth of Nations, Book II. Chap. II.) tluit bank notes formed not an addition to the circnlatino' medium of a country, but a substitution for coin sent abroad. An increase of coin and an increase of bank paper have this radical difference ; the former tends to lower the value of money through- out the world at large, by bringing forward gold and silver, conniiodities of undoubted acceptance and universal circulation, while a bank produces an article current only in a particular country. These countries are, as yet, of very limited extent, paper money being hardly known in France or Holland ; while in the rest of Europe the expe- rience of its effects during the present age is not at all of a nature to extend its circulation. Wliat, it may be asked, are the causes which limit the supply of gold and silver from the mines? Is it a monopolizing spirit on the part of any government or association, a deficiency of metallic ore, or a limitation in the demand of the public for either plate or currency ? To this we answer, that the mines are open to undertakers of any nation ; that the demand, whether for plate or cur- rency, is unlimited ; and that as to the quantity of ore, it is not probable that one hundredth part of that which is in existence has yet been ex])lored. The difficulty lies in the expence of mining; for were the machinery and labour thus employed, to be rendered more effectual or less expensive, we should soon see an increase in the quantity of the precious metals extracted and brought to market. How far does a similar reasoning apply to banks ? They, like mines, are subjected to a limitation arising from expence (in salaries, rent, stamps, and II 5)8 The (Question of the other cliargcs of an establishment); but they have a more formidable Hmitation in the hazard at- tendant on over-issue, a hazard which may consist either in the discount of doubtful bills, or in the losses, less sudden, but eventually as serious, which are inseparable from an attempt to force paper on the public. How imperiously tliese obstacles impede circulation, — liow effectually they confine a new establishment within narrow limits, is well known to all who have endeavoured to overcome them. So far we are likely to have the assent of our readers, whether bullionists or advocates of the bank; uor need we enter on any argument to show that the issue of bank paper adds but slightly to the general stock of currency, so long as such paper is demandable in cash. But when exemption prevails, the case appears very diflerent, and requires a close and attentive investigation. Discounts — Increase of their Amount during the War. — Of the great increase during the war in the issues of bank paper for discounts, there can be no doubt, recorded as it is in the books of the Bank of England, and, we might add, in those of almost every provincial bank in tlie kingdom. On this the supporters of the Bullion Committee found their grand argument for the charge of over-issue, but in their eagerness to attain a favourite result, they overlook several material considerations. 1. The increase of our population between the years 1797 and 1810 (15 per cent.), was necessa- rily productive of a certain addition to the quantity of our bank paper ; an addition sufficient to balance the saving arising from economy in the use of notes. 2. A farther and more powerfid cause is to be sought in the activity arising out of a state of war, a state which, by holding forth the prospect of large eventual profits, naturally induced individuals to Deprecialinn and (hrr-issue. 99 trade beyond their capital. Hence that multipli- cation of bills, promissory notes, and other expe- dients for raising money, so well known to those who have marked the course of mercantile affairs during the present age, and so clearly described in the evidence (p. 1^24.) appended to the Bullion Report. At that time tiie great object of a man engaged in business, whether as merchant, manu- iactiu'er, or farmer, was to gain time by putting off a payment until he had accomplished a sale, or otherwise realised an advantage in prospect. But in a season of peace, business is comparatively stationary. Our currency is adequate to our trans- actions ; bills are less numerous, and })ayments in ready money or at short dates far more frequent. * 3. Add, farther, that in a state of war, the rise of price proceeding from the various circumstances enumerated in tlie j)receding chapter, (augmented taxation, enhancement of labour, insufficiency of our growth of corn), made a larger sum requi- site to circulate the same commodities. Yet here we must add a remark which we do not recollect to have seen advanced by any writer or speaker on the subject, \\z. that an increase of discounts is likely to tend as much to lower as to raise prices. The advances of that nature during the war were made to classes strictly ])roductive, and were evidently instrumental in increasing the (piantity of our farming produce and manufactures. If the dearness of our fanning pro- duce was owing to the insufficiency of our growth, what could conduce more to retard the progress of enhancement, tlum to give our agriculturists the means of increasing their supply ? * Tooke on High and Low Prices. Part I. pp. 87. d sey. H J2 HH) "Flic Question uf All tliis may be readily aclmittcd, but it will be urged that bankers were led by the exemption ac^t, and by the flattering prospects of their customers during the war, to make advances which, under other circumstances, they would have withheld. They were, we believe, very often persuaded to discount bills which were never paid, and occasion- ally to depart from their proper province by making advances on such securities as land or houses. The Bank of England, in like manner, dispensed on various occasions with a rule to which they would otherwise have strictly adhered ; we mean the con- viction that the bills tendered for discount had been drawn for real or Inmd Jide transactions. Such relaxation probably proceeded from commendable motives : from a wish to prevent the extension of bankruptcies in manufacturing towns, in particular Glasgow or Manchester, at seasons when a fall of prices, or the failure of some eminent house threatened to involve in insolvency hundreds of persons engaged in trade with inadequate capital. We admit, however, that on such occasions the bank directors went beyond their province, and that the results were, in general, either unavailing or unfortunate, consisting in a loss to the Bank, or in a fruitless postponement of bankruptcy to the trader. But these advances could have very little tendency either to overcharge currency, or raise prices. The notes issued, whether in town or country, whether on good or bad security, soon found their way into hands whose interest it was to keep them as little time as possible ; and any temporary over-issue was of short continuance. Effect of the Eaemption Act on ow^ Currency. — We must thus dissent from the assertion so often urged since 1810, that the exemption from cash Depreciation and Ocer -issue. 101 payments gave bankers the power of overcharging the currency, or, in other words, of causing a direct rise of prices. But in regard to their power in an indirect sense, we mean tlie power of issuing money to meet a rise of prices proceeding from other causes, such as increase of taxes or insuffi- ciency in tlie supply of corn, we consitler the question as very different, and are ready to make a very ample admission. So long as the currency of a country consists of coin or of bank notes for which cash may be de- manded of the issuer, the export of a large sum, whether for military piu'poses, for a subsidy, or the purchase of corn, is necessarily productive of a scarcity of money at home. This was strikingly exemplified in 1795 and \1[)i), and in such a case the money price of commodities, far from rising, is likely to be reduced in correspondence with the reduction of the circulating medium. Had such continued the case, the war, we may be assured, would never have been popular. ]3ut under the o])eration of the exemption act, circumstances were altogether different ; the check of scarcity was re- moved, money was to be obtained, as in peace, by whoever was able to offer good bills payable at short dates, and the amount of these was in a state of progressive increase from the various causes re- ca])itulated in the j)receding paragraph. Having thus admitted the principle, the next point is to estimate the extent of its operation. And here, if we cannot agree with the Bulhonists as to the nature of the power conferred on bankers by the act of 1797» we shall, we doubt not, give tiiem full satisfaction by our view of its results. All ])arties admit the fact of an increase of cur- rency during the war, but the bidlionists ascribe it H 3 lO'J The Qucalion of to ;i direct ])ower on tlic ]);irt of bankers to over- issue*, while we account that power strictly passive and restricted in its duration to a state of war. We consider it, liowe\'er, to liave been of very coni])rehensive operation so long as it lasted, and if wc arc asked in what manner its operation, if temporary, proved so extensive; we answer, be- cause it seems to have enabled bankers to meet a rise of price by an increase of issue, ^from whatever cause thai rise proceeded. What then was the re- sult during the war? An increase of currency in proportion to rise of price, whatever was the cause that produced the rise ; whether taxes, scar- city of corn, demand of men for government, or the additional cost of articles purchased abroad. Effect i in a political sense, of the Exemption from Cash Payments. — The exemption act was in part productive of, in part coincident wdth, a great change in our financial situation — a change from embarrassment to abundance, from a state of dis- quietude to a state of confidence. The continuance of the war, the subsidizing of foreign poAvers, was no longer checked by pecuniary difficulties, and our rulers w^ere induced to take several measures less necessary for self-defence, and partaking more of an aggressive character, than our countrymen in general are aware of. Is it likely that, without the confidence thus inspired, we should have formed against France the coalitions of 1799 or 1805, or that we should have commenced our second war so early as 1803 ? If, on the one hand, the pos- session of the Netherlands by France, and the rest- less spirit of Bonaparte would, under any circimi- stances, have prevented the enjoyment of tranquil- lity, it is tit to add, on the other, that the scale of Depreciatioti and Over-issue. 103 expence on wliich the war was conducted, was our own act, and attributable in a great degree, to the exemption of our banks from cash pay- ments. Distinction between Depreciation of Batik Papery and Diminution in the Value of Moneij generallij. It is of importance to make a distinction in re- gard to the operation of the exemption act before and after I8O9. During the twelve years that fol- lowed the suspension of cash payments in 1797, our bank paper had given the greatest facilities to government expenditure, without incurring any depreciation of consequence, relatively to coin. The average price of commodities had in this inter- val experienced a great rise, (not less than -1-0 per cent.), compared to their average price in 1792. But as the causes of rise, (taxation, insufficiency of provisions of home growth, demand of men for go- vernment, &c.) were distinct or nearly distinct from an inferiority of paper to coin, the proper term for such rise of prices is not " depreciation of bank paper," but " a diminution in the value of money.** In 1809 began a rise of prices from an altogether different cause ; a rise proceeding from our bank paper not being j)ayable in coin, and from its being ex})osed to a trial it was unable to bear. This trial consisted in the concurrence of three remark- able circumstances; the expence of the war in Spain ; the necessity of purchases of corn ; and the privation of remittances consequent on our unfor- tunate stoppage of the American trade with the continent of Europe. Mode in rcliich Depreciation n-as incurred abroad. — If we take, as an example, a campaign inthepeiiin- sular war, and suppose that in a year, such as ISli H 1- 1(H 'I'hc (^iK'sdoti uj' or LSI '2, ill which our c'X))t'mlitme tliere cxcet'detl 1 (),()()(),()()()/. there was suppUed to the extent of nine-tenths in clothing, arms, stores, and specie, exported from I'^ngland, leaving 1,000,000/. to be defrayed by bills in our public offices ; in what manner, we ask, could the receivers of these bills in the Peninsula turn them to account? There was not there, as in this country, an excise-office, a custom-house, a receiver for the county, nor, after the stoppage of the American trade, were there merchants, to whom they could be trans- ferred at par or at a slight discount. If remitted to England, those bills could not purchase bullion ; and if they procured English merchandize without a perceptible loss, the quantity of such was beyond the demand of the peninsular or any continental market, limited as it was in these years by Bona- parte*s anti-commercial decrees. The unavoidable consequence w as a fall in the value of our bills, in other words, of the bank notes in which these bills were paid, exemplifying the doctrine of Dr. Smitli, or rather the self-evident truth, that " whatever causes delay the payment, or restrict the circulation of a currency, necessarily produce depreciation, the ratio of which must increase with the pressure of these causes." A similar reasoning was evidently applicable to our continental subsidies as far as paid in monev. It held also as to the purchase of foreign corn whenever such purchases were of an amount to surpass our export of merchandize. The degree of such Depreciation. — Of the degree of inferiority in our paper to the metallic currency of the Continent, the only fit index was the rate of cxcharigc ; and on referring to that impartial mo- nitor, we shall find an ample confirmation of the Dejyreciation and Over-hsue. 105 preceding reasoning. The extent of fall during the war differed regularly in different years accord- ing to the amount of the demands of the Continent on this country. Slight in years such as 1S03 and 1801<, when the war was merely maritime, it was more considerable in the case of continental oper- ations, as in 1805 and 1806 ; — serious, when to these operations was joined, as in ISOO, the necessity of corn purchases ; and greatest of all when, as in the years following 1809, there existed the double drain of subsidy and corn import, without either a me- tallic currency, or a free neutral traffic to interpose their countervailing effects. Effect of high Prices abroad on Prices at home. — Whatever enhances corn enhances labour, and makes itself felt in almost every department of our ])roductive industry. Now, after 1809 the quarter of wheat rose from 80i\ to 100^. in consequence chiefly of the fall of the exchange, of the necessity of pa}ing in paper a fourth or a fifth more than woidd have been required had not that paper been depreciated. This rise, unfortunately so great in corn, pre\^ailcd in other foreign connnodities ; in timber, hem]), tallow, to which may be added a few articles insignificant in amount, but illustrative of our proposition, because they were wholly sup})lied by the Continent, such as cork, antimony, and others, the price of which rose rapidly after 1809. How far were the effects of this enhancement apparent in our hardware, cotton, antl woollens, the cost of which was less directly affected by the price of our imports ? The cost in English money of Spanish wool and American cotton, doubtless, rose in consequence of the fall of our pa|)er ; the wages of our workmen had, likewisL', a tendency to rise with liie price of corn. The finishetl 10() The Question of article was consequently enhanced, but as the chan''es we have mentioned formed only a j)art of tlic cost, the proportion of rise attributable to our bank paper was not great in the case of our manu- factures. Extent of such Effect previous to 1809- — Having now explained the mode in which our bank paper affected the price of commodities, it remains to ascertain the quantum of the enhancement thus caused. And here when computing such by the rate of exchange, it would evidently be unfair to draw our inferences from a short interval, such as the latter months of 180.5, when our exchanges were depressed by a sudden continental demand : the correct and impartial mode is to class the years of the exemption by periods. If w^e begin with the twelve years that elapsed from the earJy part of 1797 to that of 1809, we shall find that the infe- riority of our bank notes to coin (see Mr. Mushet's Tables and Mr. M'CuUoch's article on Moneij, in Napier's Supplement to the Encyclop. Brit.) may be reckoned, at an average of the whole period, between three and five per cent. But as this infe- riority refers to continental purposes, and as a considerable interval elapsed before the depreci- ation became so great in regard to payments at home, it will suffice that we assume three per cent. as the average rise in our prices, consequent on the exemption act, until 1809. The same after 1809. — After 1809 we enter on a new a?ra ; our fin.ancial horizon became ob- scured, and the tone of the calculator must be altered. If after that year twenty-five per cent, was the average depreciation of our bank notes abroad, and if at home we make the same al- Depreciation and Over-issue. 107 lowance as before, an allowance founded on the time which it takes to adjust prices generally to an alteration in the value of a currency, particu- larly where that alteration is not apparent, we shall probably find Jifteen per cent, a fair representation of the rise of prices, as far as caused by the non- convertibility of our paper, during the five last years of the war ; in other words, that llo/. of our bank paper was required to make those purchases, or transact that business for which 100^. of it would have been sufficient, had there been no exemption from cash payments. Summary of the preceding. — If we proceed to make a summary of the various facts connected with our paper currency, and of the conclusions they suggest, we shall find them nearly as follows : In regard to Diminution in the Value of Money generally ^distinct from the Fall of our Bank Paper. — 1. The exemption from cash payments was pro- ductive of a sa\ ing to our banks peculiar to this coinitry, and enabled them to make ad\ances at a rate of interest lower than that of any other country during the war. This had, in some measure, a tendency to retard a rise of prices ; but 2. The exemption caused a very different result, in as far as it relieved bankers from the necessity of regulating their issues by the state of the exchange. It may even be said to have given free sco])e to the various causes of enhancement attendant on a state of war. Depreciation or inferiority of our Paper to Coi/i. 1. Our dependence on the Continent, and the non-convertibility of our bank ])aper, were produc- tive of its depreciation, particularly after 180'J; but, 108 '/'^"' (^ic'^liox '.'/' <2. The c'flect of that depreciation on the |>rice of coinnioditics, in other words, tlic rise of prices cou- seciiient on tiie fall of our bank pa})er, does not a])pear to have exceeded 15 per cent. These conchisions will, we trust, be found to give the question a definite form ; yet moderate as our statement may a])pear to the reader, we liardly expect it to receive a ready assent from either ])arty, so perplexing is this enquiry, and so nuich lias it been involved with other topics of discus- sion. We shall accordingly proceed to make a few animadversions on the favourite tenets of each. Arguments of the Advocates of the Bank. — These gentlemen, with all their ardour in the cause of nn'nisters, will hardly refuse to allow that the com- mand of" money, to which the exemption from cash payments was so instrumental, increased our scale of expenditure during the war. In admitting this, they can make no great objection to the infer- ence that the exemption act was a powerful, though indirect, cause of the rise of prices previous to 1809. They will be more reluctant to admit our second position, that which assumes deprecia- tion of our bank paper ; for though they allow a great fall to have taken place in the exchange after 1809, they are ill prepared to admit tliat from the moment we declared our paper not con- vertible into the currency of the rest of the civi- lised world, we rendered depreciation possible, and that a postponement of the evil, or a mitigation of its extent, would necessaVily dojiend on the natiu'e of our coiniection with the Continent, on the degree to which our paper should be put to tlie test. Depreciation and Over-issue. 109 But those wlio still feel a difficulty in believing depreciation to have existed at home, should ben-in by asking themselves whether, \vithout the non- convertibility of our paper, depreciation would have existed abroad ; or, if it had begun, whether it would have continued. If they refer to the evidence of Mr. Goldsmid, and others, before the Bullion Committee, they will find, that had our currency been of coin, or convertible into coin, 7 or 8 per cent, would have been the greatest dif- ference that could possibly have taken place in the exchange even at the time of the anti-commercial o decrees. Let them ask, in the next place, whether a reduction of the quantity of oin* bank pa})er would not at any time have raised its value, and, if carried a sufficient length, have brought it to a par with coin ? Supposing the advocates of the Bank to assent to this reasoning, and to admit the existence of depreciation, our next object is to satisfy them that our estimate of it is not exaggerated. This will best be done by a comparison of the rise of prices in England, and on the Continent. If in this coun- try 160/. were necessary towards the close of the war to make the purchases which 100/. made in 1792, or if, in other words, our prices experienced a rise of HO per cent., the rise on the Continent will probably have been found to have been about 30 per cent. This difference was too great to be explained by any difference in the com})arative charges of war ; for taxation, the demand of men for the public service, and the enlianccment of corn, were all operative in a considerable ilegree on the Continent. Farthei-, since the reinstate- ment of our currency, the decline in prices has been about 15 per cent, greater in England than on 110 The Quest toll ()f the Continent, a coincidence which seems iiilly to justify our computation, that that proportion of the rise in war was produced by the fall of our bank paper. The Supporters of the Bullion Committee. — We are next to address ourselves to the adherents of a dirterent doctrine, to men who take a bolder tone, and do not scruple to tax their antagonists with ic'iiorance of the principles of productive indus- try. Nor need we, in truth, be surprised at the con- fidence of their language in regard to the question under discussion. The rise of our prices during the war was so progressive, and so coincident in point of time with the increase of bank paper, that the connexion of cause and effect was generally asserted, long before it received a kind of official sanction from the Bullion Report. To ascribe en- hancement to over-issue, was easy ; to trace it to other causes and to define the limited operation of the exemption act, would have been a tedious and intricate task. Yet the difference between us and the Bullionists consists less in the extent of enhancement, attributed to our bank paper, than in the mode by which that enhancement was produced. While tlieij hardly notice the effect of taxation, demand of men for government, or the insufficient growth of corn, as causes of rise of price, and ascribe almost all to bank paper, 5x'^ consider these as the direct causes, and our paper as opera- tive only in a passive sense, by giving scope to these causes, and consequently facilitating the continu- ance of the war. We can trace no direct power in banks to over-issue ; and those who insist on it, will find themselves involved in all the difficulty attend- ant on an attack ol' the strong hold of their oppo- Depreciation and Over-issue. Ill nents, viz. the power possessed by the piibHc of reheving themselves of a surcharge, by paying bank notes into tlie Treasury. The Bulhonists, being 4n general political eco- nomists, will readily assent to the arguments of Dr. Smith, that banks, while subject to cash payments, possess no power of increasing the amount of cur- rency ; a power which many projectors, about the middle of last century, fondly imagined to reside in banks, and the non-existence of which is so clearly explained by Dr. Smith, in his account of the un- successful career of the Ayr Bank. When satisfied of this, let them next endeavour to show in what manner it was possible that such power could have been conferred by the exemption act. That act was evidently incapable of giving solidity to bills or other securities, which, without it, would liave been bad or doubtful ; nor did any of its provisions either oblige or induce the public to pay interest on more currency than they required. During its operation as before, our notes were nothing more than an instrument of circulation, and one which continued to cost the holders fully as much as prior to the war. Obtained by a sacrifice of interest, it was important to every indi\idual, whether a speculative or a regular dealer, to circulate them as quickly as possible, to retain them no longer than was neces- sary to accomplish a specific purpose. From this reasoning we infer that bank paper, whether pay- able or not in cash, must await the call of the cus- tomer, and that its circulation can be augmented only to meet a rise proceeding from other causes. Farther, this extended circulation can continue only so long as the causes of high prices remain in force; for bank paper lias neither the power of raising prices in the first instance, or of main- 112 The (liics/ioti o/ tainini^ llioin wlieii tlic causes of" enlianccincnt cuasc to opcMate. If tliis doctrine appear somewhat ])oId, \ve ap- peal to the evidence of facts, and invite our readers to consider how remarkably our conclusions are su])ported by the course of circumstances since the peace. During the years 181.5 and 1810 no com- pulsion was exercised in regard to a return to cash payments, nor were the advantages arising to bank- ers fiom the exem})tion act, restricted in a single instance ; yet country bankers were forced greatly to curtail their circulation, a measure which, had they possessed the power commonly attributed to them, would, doubtless, have been postponed till the act had been repealed. Further, had our banks possessed this })ower, the latitude given to circula- tion during the war, would, we may be assLU'ed, have been much greater. Mr. Huskisson, when writing on this subject in 1810, and viewing the question in the light of the Bullion Committee, ac- knowledged his surprise that the issues of the Bank had not been far greater. Is it going too far to ask whether this does not justify the suspicion of a latent error in the reasoning of bulHonists ; of the existence of circumstances of which their arguments take no account ? Without pressing this point in the abstract, we shall adduce a fact entitled to the most attentive consideration of those who invest the exemption act with so formidable an attribute as that of enabling bankers to make a direct increase of their issues. Our growth of corn, inadequate during the whole war, became so, in a high degree, soon after the exemption act : our farmers had then a powerful motive to extend their tillage, and, in fact, did extend it as far as their means admitted. It was a general notion on the part of the public, Depreciation and Over-issue. 113 and we believe of ministers, that this extension was limited, not by want of funds, but by the nature of the soil ; an opinion, however, wlioUjj disproved by the experience of the last seven years, in which the amount produced from our soil has been so greatly augmented. To what has this augmentation been owing, except to the application of additional capi- tal and labour ? Observe the importance of the conclusion to which this leads : our soil having been, as far as regarded natural fertility, equally capable of increased production, ten or twelve years ago, would not our farmers, had our banks possessed the power ascribed to them, have obtained such an issue of notes as would have enabled them to ex- tend their tillage, and bring our growth of corn on a level with our consumption ? If want of hands be alleged as the obstacle, we answer, that in Ire- land and in Germany there were many thousand labourers unemployed, and that a command of ca- pital, such as is vulgarly ascribed to our banks, would soon have transported them to our shores. Historical Enquiries. I. The Exemption Act, viexved in connection with the events of the War. — We shall now bestow a few paragraphs on an interesting, but hitherto un- noticed topic, in the history of our paper currency ; we mean the question, " whether the exemption act, had it not taken place when it did, would have been resorted to at any subsequent ajra in the war?" This enquiry, brief as we shall make it, requires an attentive notice of our situation relatively to the Continent at particular periods. The preliminaiies of peace between France and Austria were signed at Leoben in April 1 797, 1 1 i. The K.reinpHnn Act vie7vefi a frw wooks af'fer the exemption act, and thoii , if the name of export can be said to belong to a surplus produce hardly greater than that of j^ single county in the present age. In the early part of the reign of Elizabeth (\5iH)y export was permitted by act of Parliament, whcne\er our prices fell to lOs. the quarter for wheat, and Qs. 8d. for barley and malt ; prices remarkably low, when I 4 120 Historical Sketch of our Com Trade. wc consider that our coin was, in point of metallic weight and fineness, the same as at present. At that rate, however, they did not long continue ; a considerable rise took phice before I.CI70 ; and in 1.593 the export limit was extended by act of par- liament to 9,0s. for the quarter of wheat, and lisJ^. for barley and malt. This doubling of price in the course of thirty years, has not a little embarrassed political arith- meticians : it is commonly attributed to the influx of metallic currency from the American mines before an outlet was found for it in India and China, but from our experience of the limited effect of such a cause in subsequent times, par- ticularly since the late peace, we are inclined to lay no little stress on the general prevalence of war throughout Europe, from the middle of the sixteenth to that of the seventeenth century. Be this as it may, the enhancement continued progres- sive; for in 1623 the export limit was raised to 325. the quarter for wheat, and \Qs. for barley and malt. In the succeeding age, particularly under Cromwell, our markets were considerably higher, but the rise was in some degree nominal, our coin, though no longer debased by government, being deteriorated by clipping and filing, and brought, at times, no less than 20 per cent, below its legal value, — an abuse not completely remedied till 1717' Bounti/ o?i E.rport. — In the reign of Charles II. the prices of corn declined, and though several acts were passed (in I66O, 1663, I67O), imposing a duty on foreign corn, their effect in our market was inconsiderable, because our growth equalled, or more than equalled our consumption. Prices accordingly did not rise, the agriculturists com- Historical Sketch of our Com Trade. 121 plained, and the epoch of the Revolution was marked by a new refinement of legislation in their favour. The necessity of providing^ supplies for the formidable contest with Louis XIV., led go- vernment to contemplate a land-tax, and to offer as a douceur to the landed interest, a premium on export, which, accompanied by a prohibition of the import of foreign corn, implied a certainty of increase of price, and consequently of rent. The chief provisions of the act were the payment of a bounty of 5s. for every quarter of wheat exported, so long as our price continued at or below 485., and Qs. 6d. for every quarter of barley or malt, so long as our home currency for that grain did not exceed 2is. A deficiency of documents in regard to the ex- tent of our tillage, prevents our tracing the effects of the bounty act : it doubtless stinmlated produc- tion, and, under ordinary political circumstances, might, after creating a temporary superiority of demand to supply, have in some degree lowered prices ; but the market was, during many years, kept up by causes not unlike those which followed in our day the French revolution, — war, and a more than usual prevalence of bad seasons. The proportion of the latter in the twenty years between 1692 and 1712, was not inferior to that of the twenty years between 1792 and 1812; and as our drain of men and capital for the war in these days, made no slight approximation to that of our late contest, there were wanting to complete the ana- logy of high price only two of the characteristics of our age, — a depreciated currency, and an annual insufficiency of growth. After the treaty of Utrecht, we enter on a paci- fic aera, on the age of Fleury and Walpole. The £ s. ci. 1 15 5 I 15 2 1 12 1 1 13 3 1 19 3 mQ llislorical Sketch uf our Corn Trade. causes of fiuctuation in our corn-market were now nuicli siniplifiecl, and the half-centiiry that suc- ceeded presented the Ibllowing residts : Average Price of Wheal computed by the Winchester quarter^ from Purchases made at Windsor J'or Eton College. For ten years ending with 1725 Do. - ending with 1735 Do. - ending with 1745 Do. - ending with 1755 Do. - ending with 17(i5 In what manner are we to explain so near an approach to uniformity of price during so long a period? By the maintenance of peace during thirty-fiye years out of fifty, and by an exemption, in general, liom bad seasons. The case was the same with our neighbours, as appears from the returns (see Appendix) of the prices of corn in France. In that country, as in England, the market during the fifty years in question, presented an average considerably lower than that of either the preceding or succeeding half-century. During the whole of this period, we were ex- porters of corn ; the quantity varied, of course, from year to year, but w^as almost always sufficient to establish the fact, that the market price in Eng- land was little higher than throughout the mari- time part of the west of Europe ; we mean the Netherlands, Denmark, the North of France, and the north-west of Germany. The cheapness was materially greater only in inland cUstricts of the Continent, where, as at present in Lorraine, the south of Poland, or south-west of Russia, the want of water conveyance kept down the market. During this half-century of stiitionaiy price, and Historical Sketch of our Corn Trade. l'2o -of scanty agricultural profits, — this period, when inclosure bills were so rare, and lease afler lease was signed in long succession, without any idea of increase of rent, it must not be inferred ihat our tillage was on the decrease : it evidently received an extension, but somewhat more slowly, as ap- pears by the ultimate result, than the increase of our population. After 1764, began a new aera ; our consumption equalled, and somewhat surpassed our growth, so that our import predominated over export. This change, so unsuitable to a season of peace, so con- trary to calculation, at a time when additional labour and capital became applicable to agricul- ture, was owing to several reasons, — an unusual proportion of bad seasons ; the increase of con- sumers from the extension of our manufactures, particularly cotton ; and in })art, doubtless, to the general disposition to withhold surplus capital from the so long unprofitable investment of agriculture. Act o/"1773. — The rise in our market, whatever may have been its causes, was such in the ten years preceding 1773, as to lead to an act of a new kind; an act implying that, in regard to corn, Eng- land was to be considered rather an importing than an exporting country. It ])ermitted the import of foreign wheat whenever our own reached or ex- ceeded 48.y. the quarter ; a hmit just and moderate, which, while it relieved the consume)- from an ex- orbitant rise on the occurrence of a bad harvest, was productive of" no injury to our agriculture, the prices of corn continuing to afford a steady retiuu for the labour and capital employed. Om* marker now exhibited all the ailvantages of snjjpiy duly proportioned to demand : in some years a partial 124 Historical Sketch of our Corn Trade. import was necessary; in others, the nature of our crops enabled lis to export ; but after I788, a time of extension and prosperity to most of our manu- factures, import decidedly predominated. In I71U, the landed interest, not satisfied with the advantage secured to them by the act of 1773, carried it a step farther, and obtained a law pre- venting import, except when our wheat should reach or exceed the price of 54.9. the quarter. Whether this measure would have operated to raise prices, or by directing an extra share of ca- pital to tillage, would have, in some degree, lower- ed them, we had no opportunity of ascertaining, so soon was it followed by the war of 1793. The late Wars. — The wars of the present age, attended by an unparalleled drain of both labourers and capital, could not fail to raise the price of corn. For some time, however, the rise was gradual, the average price of our wheat, during the first seven years of the war, not exceeding iSSs. ; but two bad harvests in succession, (1799 and 1800) altered entirely the state of the market, and carried prices to a rate (6/. and upwards) till then unprecedented in our history. The seasons of ISOI, 180^2, and 1803, were favourable, and produced a fall to nearly 3/., a fall which, in concurrence with the demands of the Treasury on the land-holders for our renewed contest with France, led to the corn law of 1804-, by which the import of foreign wheat was in a manner prohibited, until our own should be at or above 63.s., and taxed till our own readied 665. These prices, high as they then seemed, were soon surpassed by the currency of our market, in consequence, partly of an unfavourable season (1804), partly of the continued drain of hands and Historical Sketch of our Com Trade. 125 capital for the war. These causes operated in a greater or less degree over the rest of Europe, and greatly lessened the relief which importation would otherwise have afforded us. The non-convertibility of our paper currency had existed since 1797. and passed, in vulgar es- timate, for the principal cause of this progressive rise ; but the degree of enhancement proceeding from it was slight (not exceeding 3 or 4 per cent.) until 1809. Ill that year it was suddenly accele- rated by an unfortunate concurrence of circum- stances ; expenditure in Spain, the stoppage of neutral traffic, and, above all, a deficient harvest. From this time forward, our purchases of foreign corn were made at a sacrifice of 18, 20, or 25 per cent, a loss incurred on the whole of the very large sum of 7,000,000/. expended on the purchase of corn in 1810. The currency of our market was now between 51. and 6/., and though, for one year, a rise was prevented by the abundant harvest of 1810, the case became very difl'erent after that of 1811, although only partially deficient. A supply from abroad was now, in a manner, out of the question, partly from the anti-cominercial edicts of the time, more from our want of specie and the fall of our bank paper. Accordingly, during 1812 and 1813, our prices averaged above 6/., a rate ill calculated to prepare our farmers for the great and general fall to be expected from the approaching change in the state of Europe. The Peace of 1814. — Never were the effects of peace more promptly or generally felt, than in 1814. Import co-operated with favourable seasons ; tlie price of corn fell rapidly, and it was in vain that parliament passed, early in 1815, a new act. l^f) Fhi during the J. ^ jj years 1814, 15, 16. \ Average price Ycu^^. of *f"^^a' 180K A deficient crop, followed^ Average ofl £', s. d. however by average r the years >■ 4 ^l crops in 1805, 6, 7. J 1805, f3, 7, 8. J 1808. A partial deficiency - 1 Average of) 1809. A great deficiency - r the years > 5 9 1810. A good crop - - )1809&1810.) 1811. A deficiency - - ^Average ofl 1812. IS. Crops favourable, but cur- /- the 3 years > 5 18 S rency depreciated - ) 1811,12,13.3 1814. A crop not exceeding the " average, but a consider- able import, and a de- crease both of demand and of farming charges consequent on the peace 1815. A full average crop 1816. A great and general de- ficiency - - J 1817. A crop somewhat below") Average of) an average - - ■ the years J- 4 9 5 1818. An average crop - j 1819. A crop somewhat below 1 S 13 O the average - - j 1820. A crop exceeding thel „ „ - average - - j 1821. An average crop - — — 2 14 2 1822. An average crop - — — 2 3 3 The deficiency of a particular year is felt little on the average price of that year, but greatly in that of the succeeding year, being seldom ascertained till late in autumn. The prices in the above table are taken from the Windsor market to 1813 inclusive; afterwards from the average return for England and Wales, which is somewhat lower than the price at Windsor. Causes of' Fluctuation in the Price of Coivi. It is common to ascribe a great share of these fluctuations to the corn laws; but those who have written and spoken on that subject, whether in favour of or against these laws, would have per- formed a useful service had they been more sparing of argument and more attentive to the facts con- aected with our corn trade. The result would, 9 Fhictuaiiom in the Price of Corn. 133 we believe, have been a discovery, that the effects attributed to our corn laws, whether by their sup- porters or opponents, have been greatly over-rated, and that })arliament, in attempting to regulate the currency of oiu- markets, might, as was remarked by the late Mr. Whitbread, be compared to the phi- losopher in Rasselas, who regarded the sun, wind, and rain, as under his control. The bounty act of 1689 had, doubtless, for some time, an operation favourable to landlords, enabling them to let their lands more readily, perhaps on somewhat higher terms ; but after the stimulus of war was removed, the bounty proved altogether unequal to the mainte- nance of prices, and certainly caused to our coun- try gentlemen, as members of the community at large, a loss greater than the benefit it brought them in the capacity of landlords. Their prosper- ous day did not arrive until afler lyS^, when their boasted aids, export and bounty, disappeared to- gether. From that time corn maintained a steady price, or rather experienced a gradual rise, the causes of which, as the bounty was now inopera- tive, will, we believe, be readily admitted to have been. First, and principally, an unusual proportion of unfavourable seasons between I7641 and 1773. Secondly, that the increase of capital and labour applied to our agriculture was not in proportion to the increase of our population. This arose fiom various causes : the wars of 17o() and 177/3 : the extension of certain manufactures, particularly cotton ; and an impression, founded on the expe- rience of the preceding half century, lliat agricul- ture was an unprofitable })ursuit. We now come to the act of 1773, the only act K 3 LSI- Fl urinal ions in llw Price of Cum. wliicli seems to liave had an operation steadily ad- vaiilaf^eoiis to landlords ; our averaf^e ])rice of wlicat from 1773 to I788 being about ¥.)s. a ([uar- ter, while hi France it did not (see Appendix) exceed 385. or 39*., and at Dantzic 41.9. a quarter. Here was a real and steady superiority of price, the maintenance of wliicli was owing in part to the American war, but in part also to the moderate nature of the act, the price of 48a., pointed out by it as a kind of limit, offering no temptation to capitalists to transfer their funds from trade or manufacture to land. Had the import limit been 545. there seems little doubt, after the proofs we have had of the practicability of extending our tillage, that it would, ere long, have been ov^er- done, and our growth rendered not only equal but superior to our consumption. By asking little the landholders obtained a certainty, and this ex- ample of the success of interference, when inter- ference is very slight, has a claim to their serious attention at the present moment. TJie late Wars. — In the period from 1793 to 1814, the Corn laws were in general inoperative, the currency of our market being usually above the import limit, and our ports consequently open. No difference appears to have resulted from the restraint on import imposed by the act of 1804 ; an act which had, we believe, the effect of enabling landlords to make a rise of rent more general and more approaching to uniformity over the kingdom in point of time than would otherwise have been practicable, but which had certainly no effect iu raising markets, its tendency to extend tillage balancing, or more than balancing, any tendency ta keep up prices by an occasional and short exclusion of foreign Corn. Fluctuations i/i the Price of Corn. 135 What then were the causes of the unexampled rise of prices between 1793 and 181 1 ? The unusual number of bad or indifferent sea- sons, not less than seven (1791-, 1795, 1799, 1800, 1804, 1809, 1811,) in the course of eighteen years. The great demand of men for military service, in consequence of which tlie increase of the pro- ducers of corn failed to keep pace with the increase of the consumers. The consequent rise in the price of labour, and in farming charges generally. The increase of taxation. The prevalence of similar causes on the Conti- nent, and consequent limitation of imj)ort. The depreciation of our currency, particularly after 1809. Of all the departments of our national industry, none received so continued a stinmlus from the war as agriculture. Our manufactures, particu- larly those of cotton and hardware, experienced at times a greater impulse ; but the nature of manu- facture admitting of more speedily increasing supply in proportion to demand, the briskness was often temporary, and followed by seasons of dis- couragement. Our tillage, on the other hand, was hardly at any time brought on a par with our increasing population, so that the stimulant of a demand, equal to or'greater than the internal sup})ly, prevailed throughout almost the whole })eriotl. Causes of the Fall of Prices si?ice the Peace. — These have been partly peculiar to this country, partly common to it with the Continent of Europe. Of the latter description were The application of additional capital, and, in a K 1. 1.1() Fluctuations in fhf Prtcf of Corn. greater degree, of labour, to tillage, since the re- duction of military establishments. A succession of seasons more favourable than during the war ; the Continent, like England, having had, since the peace, only one bad summer, 181(3. Though, from the extent of the failure on that occasion, we may consider it equivalent to two seasons of ordinary deficiency, the proportion of favourable seasons since the peace is still con- siderably greater than diu'ing the war. Next, as to the causes of decline peculiar to this country, we have The re-instatement of our paper currency; and. The great reduction of freight and other charges of transport ; a principal cause of the magnitude of the import in I8I7 and 1818. lAibour applied to Tillage since the Peace. — The operation of several of these causes is suffi- cientlv obvious, but the extent of one which to us appears of considerable importance, maybe doubted by many persons, particularly by those who com- pute the extension of our growth by the number of inclosure bills, and w^ho have remarked (see Ap- pendix) the great decrease in such acts since the peace. To those persons we would submit an observation which, however plain, is of the highest importance, viz. that " the most productive hus- bandry is that which is practised on land already under cultivation." This truth escaped the atten- tion of the Agricultural Committee of 1821, but is well known to intelligent farmers and land-survey- ors. In support of our opinion, we refer our readers to the evidence of a practical farmer, Mr.Becher, of Suffolk, given before the Corn Committee of 1810. When asked whether he considered the import limit of that time (63*.) as too low, Mr. B. answered, (Evidence, p. 5.5.) Flucluationii in tht Price of Corn. 137 " I look upon the price at which wheat is now imported not sufficient to encourage the culture of wheat to the extent that is necessary for the kingdom ; but I believe there is not the least doubt, if the import price was at 845. instead of 63^., or even higher, that the effect would be, upon a notice given that that would be the import price after the 30th September in any year, that the consumption of the country would be fully pro- vided for at home, even in the first year after such notice." Could it be provided for in the first year without cross-cropping ? " I believe that the lands now sown with wheat are not in the high state generally that they might be ; and this I am aware of, that every additional hoeing of the wheat crop will give, upon an average, at least two bushels an acre. I have tried the experiment more than once in the same fields, by not hoeing, hoeing once, and hoeing twice : the difference has been — with one hoeing two bushels an acre more and upwards, and in that hoed twice four bushels more." This opinion may be followed up by asking what amount of additional labour is at the dispo- sal of our farmers, since the peace ? A compari- son of the population returns of 1811 and 18^-21, appears at first to operate against our argument, and to imply that the increase of the growers of corn was, in the course of these ten years, consi- derably below the increase of the consumers, tlie former being in the ratio of only 9, the latter of 19 per cent, of our population. But this comparison is made by a number of fkmiHes, and the effectual plan is to calculate the able-bodied labourers. Now, of these peace restored a number to agricultural labour, and what was of at least equal importance, suspended the drain of others as recruits for the pubHc service. Is it practicable to reduce the numbers in question to the form of specific calcu- lation ? The proi)ortion of the population of Great Britain and Ireland employed m agricul- ins F/i/rn/a/io/is in I he l*ricc of Corn. liiro in llie latter years of the war, could not (see the Population Return of 1811) be less than 7,0()(),(K)0, of whom the able-bodied exceeded 1,700,000. Of these in war there were withdrawn tor the army, navy, and militia (exclusive of local ^nilitia) nearly one-tenth, say - - 170,000 Whereas in peace the number of the agricultural class so withdrawn is not - 30,000 Leaving a difference of - - M-0,000 or one-twelfth of the whole. Now if we calculate the produce of their laboui- on the most moderate scale, not at a twelfth but at a twenty-fourth of our crop, the result is an ad- dition to our supply of more than a fortnight's con- sumption of our whole population, a quantity which, small as it may seem, was constderablij larger than our average import during the war. And as no article is so much influenced as corn, (Evidence, Agricultural Committee, pp. 229 — 240.) by a slight addition to or subtraction from the usual supply, an increase, such as we have mentioned, is sufficient to cause a material change in the market. Viewed in connexion with the con- version of pasture lands in Ireland to tillage, it will, we believe, be found to afford a more ade- quate explanation of the low price of corn, than any other cause except the continuance of favourable seasons.* * See the close of the Appendix to this Chapter; also the close of the Appendix to the Chapter on Population. 139 SECTION II. Situation and Prospects of our Agriadturists. VVi: have now explained the causes of the great change tliat has taken place since the peace, of the remarkable increase in the quantity and reduction in the price of our produce. Our next object is to exiiibit the result of this change, and to convey an idea of the actual situation of our landlords and farmers. Estimate of our Agricultural Produce and Rental. Produce. — Annual value of agricultural pro- duce, (not only corn but wool, hemp, flax, timber, &c.) raised in Great Britain and Ireland. In 1812, our produce, exclusive of seed, was computed by Mr. Colquhoun, in his well-known work on the " Resources of the British Empire," (pp. 06—89.) at . _ - ji^217,000,00() Deduct pasture and all produce used for the food of horses, horned cattle, and the lesser animals, about - - - 100,000,000 Value of annual produce for the food of man, or for the purposes of manufacture - - - j^ 11 7,000,000 Since 1812, prices have fallen above (iO pcM- cent. ; but as Mr. C.'s estimate was made greatly below the currency of the time, the deduction applicable to his results does not exceed 25 or 30 ])er cent. This deduction in prices, large as it is. 140 Situation and Prospects appears to be balanced, or nearly balanced, by the increase in the quantity of our produce. To as- certain the extent of such increase is a matter of great difficulty, but the probability of its being very large is supported by several powerful con- siderations ; viz. The diffusion of improvements in husbandry. The addition to our population, and the cessa- tion of a drain of the able-bodied men for the public service. The excess of the population and produce of Ireland over Mr. Colquhoun's estimate. The conjunct effect of these causes may, we be- lieve, safely be computed to form an addition of 25 per cent, to the quantity of our produce, and to leave the value of the whole not far short of Mr. Colquhoun's estimate. Rental. — In 1814 the rental of England, Wales, and Scotland was carried, as appears by the property- tax returns, to nearly ^£^43,000,000 Add for Ireland, (con- jecturally estimated) 10,000,000 Together ^^53,000,000 Add for all omissions and allowances on the property-tax returns, a sup- posed amount of - - - . 5,000,000 The great increase tliat has of late taken place in our produce having been chiefly on lands already under tillage, we add for new land brought into culture since the peace only - 2,000,000 Making in all . ^^60,000,000 of our Agriculturists. 141 Deduct for all abatements of rent since 1814. made, making, or which must, ere long, be made, one- third, or 33 per cent, of the war rents, <^^ ^20, 000, 000 Remainder ^'1-0,000,000 a sum which will probably form the rental of Great Britain and Ireland, when the price of wheat shall be steadily between .50.9. and (iO.^. a quarter, and when farming charges shall be brought down to the peace standard. Large as is this abatement of rent, it is less great than the fidl in the price of produce, but the improved husbandry has of late made considerable progress, and the cheapness of provisions has caused a great decrease of poor rate. In no class of the community has the effect of transition been either so severe or so long con- tinued as among the agriculturists. If to the rental of landlords in the latter years of the war, we add the income of our farmers, we shall find, (see Property- tax returns for 1812, printed in 181(),) including Ireland, an aggregate of more than 100,000,000/. This, it must be allowed, exceeded all due bounds, and a reduction to 75 or even to 70,000,000/., for the total of rental and farming income, would have been nothing more than a fair participation in the ge- neral abatement attendant on peace ; a relinquish- ment of a monopoly for a fair average profit. But of late years the income of farmers is, in a mamier, suspended, and of the rents they at present pay, a large proportion is drawn from their capitiil. Of the extent of national injury arising from this state of things, some idea may be formed from I'J.2 Siliialion and Prospects the following estimate of the proportion borne by Uirriniltiire to the productive industry of the country at large. Proportions in 100. IVoportion and of Mr. Brodie, (p. 335.) while indirectly it is confirmed by all who, when desired to say the cost of raising wheat without rent, fixed it at the charges of 1821, betw^een 55s. and 60^. A deduction of 25 per cent, would bring the cost to 4<5s., and a market price between 55s. and 60^. would obviously sui)ply the fund re- quisite for the payment of the rent, which is in ge- neral a fourth or a fiflh of the produce. How far is the probabihty of 55s. or 605., as a medium price in peace, confirmed by other cir- cumstances, in particular by the average price of other countries ? Wheat at Dantzic has avera- ged, (Evidence, Agricultural Committee, p. 366.) during the last half century about 4f5s. a quarter ; while in the parts of the Continent, adjacent to England, we mean the Netherlands, and the north of France, 45^. a quarter are generally considered sufficient for the indemnity of the farmer. This difference supposes an advance of 20 per cent, to our farmers in consideration of their higher rents and somewhat heavier burdens in other respects. After the high prices of the war, an average of 55s. or 60^. appears low : but in the payment of labour, in the power of purchase generally, it at present is, or ought to be equal to 80s. in the latter part of the war, and the point is not that which may be ex- pected, but that which it is practicable to attain. Add to this, that under such a price our manufac- turers would probably acquiesce without complaint, considering our national superiority in fuel, navi- uj' our As^ricidturists. 147 gatioii, and command of capital, such as to admit, without much hazard, of a relative disadvantage in the cost of subsistence. How tar is the probability of such an average confirmed b}- a retrospect to history, to peiiods in which our agriculture was prosperous? In 1804, a price varying from 63s. to 6Qs. was accounted sufficient by Parliament, under charges heavier than those we have now in prospect. During the thirty years between 17^)3 and 1793, our farmers made few complaints, though the average price of wheat was 49^. a quarter, or about 15 per cent, less tlian we consider necessary tor the present time. And if we compare the farming charges on the reduced scale we have anticipated, with those previous to 1793, we shall find that tiie excess of the former, is, or ought to continue great in one })oint onlv, — taxation. This leads naturally to the inquiry, '* how tar ** the public burdens, at present defrayed by agri- " culture, exceed those of 1792." In treating this subject in a preceding chapter, we have had occasion (p. 59.) to estimate the increase of burden to the public at large at 12 percent, on their income: in tlie case of the farmers, we shall make a liberal al- lowance, and suppose that from the pressure of poor rate, the additional burden since 1792, is nearly 20 per cent. This, be it observed, is burden on mcome, but tlie produce, of a farm being com- puted by SLUveyors at three or four times the tenant's income, (see the Property-tax return, 1810), it follows that 20 per cent, on income will be defrayed by an addition of .5 or () per cent, to the price of ithe produce. Now could the farniers obtain the 55s. or dO^. which we have termed a fair average, the result would be their having a snrphis I. 2 14,8 Situation and Prospects above the prices of 1792 sufficient to serve as a counterpoise to labour and tlie other charges (dis- tinct from taxation), which are higher at present than in 1792, and which it will be a task of great time and difficulty to reduce. The reasoning in the preceding pages, fair as it may seem to some, and sanctioned as it is by the example of such men as Earl Fitzwilliam and Mr, Coke, may appear in a very different light to others, who, whether landlords or farmers, are ill prepared to relinquish the hope of high price. Of these persons, some may still cling to the imagined effect of a protecting duty, others, with more plausi- bility, may build their expectations of an impro\'ed market on the progressive increase of population and on the contingency of a deficient harvest. It is of consequence, therefore, to enter at some length into a consideration of these arguments, and to attempt to bring into the form of an esti- mate, results, which, at present, are vague and un- defined. Effect of increasing Population on the Price of Corn, — The returns in the present age have shown an increase m our population to an extent which we had, for some time, difficulty in considering correct, and which when put beyond doubt, was ascribed by many to the temporary stimulus arising from the war. It bids fair, however, to be pro- gressive, arising, as it apparently does, from causes of a permanent nature ; from an improve- ment in the condition of the lower orders, in diet, clothing, and lodging, as well as from the preserv- ation of the lives of children by vaccination. But those who found on this an expectation of rehef to our agriculturists, overlook one verv material of our Agriculturists. 149 point ; " that the productive powers of our better soils, far from having reached their te?yni?ius, may be made to yield a far larger produce by additional labour and the adoption of the improved methods of husbandry.*' In support of this apparently bold assertion, we refer, as well to the already quoted arguments of a practical agriculturist, (Mr. Becher,) as to our experience, as a nation, during the last nine years. No period was more calculated to suggest the in- ference of a limitation of the productive powers of our soil than the twenty years preceding 1814, yet this opinion (sec the preceding section, page l-'i?*) has been completely disproved by the result of our agriculture since the peace. If we take a wider range than the experience of the present age, and refer to the history of this and other countries, we find France as capable at present of main- taining a population of 30,000,000, as of supporting 20,000,000 in the beginning of the 18th century, or 15,000,000 in the beginning of the lyth. And France may be termed an example altogether in pointof increase of produce from increase of hands, manual labour forming the basis of her agriculture, to the exclusion, in a great degree, of machinery. England furnislies a case apparently stronger than France, the increase of our population, during the last century, having been considerably more rapid, and our soil beuig still equal to their sub- sistence. But we forbear dwelling on this, because it may be argued that the productive power of our agriculture lias, particularly in the present age, been much promoted by means distinct from in- crease of popidation, we mean machiner), and other aids arising from the connnand of capital. We cannot, however, but express a belief) that the J. 10 Situation cmd Prospects next gencratioij of our countrymen will, in aU j)rol)al)ility, raise a supply of subsistence as far beyond ours, as ours is beyond tliat of the last a^^e; and that our descendants, on comparing the two periods, will feel no little surprise at the negative predictions of several of our political economist*;. Without contesting in the abstract the principles of the latter, we must add that nothing is more likely to mislead than the assertions of those who assign limits to the extension of the productive powers of our soil, imperfectly acquainted as they are with its capabilities, and still more unable to foresee the successive improvements that may, and in all probability will, be made in husbandry. How greatly does our prospect of supply exceed their anticipation : how large, for instance, would be the addition to the produce of the West of England, and of Ireland, were these countries merely to adopt the improved plan now generally followed in our eastern and northern counties. (See Appendix, p. [37].) Consumers may increase xdthout raising Prices. — Our next argument, similar in its object, is some- what different in its nature. There exists a per- petual tendency to removal from country to town, and, on com])aring our population lists at different periods, we iind the inhabitants of towns, in other words, the consumers of corn, gradually augment their proportion relatively to the producers. Both classes increase their numbers, but in towns the ratio is larger. We nuist be cautious, however, of drawins; from this fact anv conclusion as to rise of price; it merely marks the natural progress of society in an enhghtened country ; a progress easily traced in our history for more than two centuries, the agriculturists of England, who now form only 33 'per cent, of our population, having, we believe. of our Agricultuiists. 151 formed upwards of 50 or GO per cent, of it in the reigns of Elizabeth and James I. Still the supply of produce has continued equal to our increased numbers, and the cause is obvious, the use of ma- chinery, and the adoption of various improvements, enabling the same number of hands to raise a much larger quantity of subsistence. Is then no rise of prices to be expected from the increase of our population ? It certainly may be expected under circumstances which giv^e a new or different employment to a portion of our numbers -—such as appear to have prevailed on the extension of our cotton manufactures afiter 1780, and such as evidently characterise the present emigration to Upper Canada, and the Western States of America, the larger proportion of the emigrants being agri- culturists. To this we add, that the increase of our numbers has in it something encouraging and cheering : // assures, in a great measurey the conti- nuance of tillage on our inferior soils: and, taken in a more general view, it keeps alive the expectation of national improvement so fully described by Mr. S. Gray, and which shall be noticed at greater length when we come to treat of the subject of popidation. Kffccts of a had Season on the Price of Corn. — The rise in our corn market, produced by a bad or even an indifferent season, is in time qf^^ivar very considerable. The difference between the crop of one year and that of another will be found, without resorting to an extreme case, such as 1816, to be frequently (Evidence, Agricultural Committee of 1821, p. 264.) between 10 and 20 per cent. Add to this that on such occasions our purchases abroad are generally enhanced by the causes which pro- T '4 1,^2 Situdlion and Prospects duce enhancement in this country. The public, par- ticularly the untra veiled part of the public, are hardly aware of" the similarity of tem])erature prevailing throughout what may be called the corn- country of Europe, we mean Great Britain, Ireland, the north of France, the Netherlands, Denmark, the north-west of (jermany, and, in some measure, Poland, and tiic nortli-east of Germany. All this tract is situated between the 45th and 55th degrees of latitude, and subject, in a considerable degree, to the prevalence of similar wands. Neither the superabundance of rain which we experience in one summer, or its deficiency in another, are by any means confined to Britain and Ireland ; while in winter, both the intensity and duration of frost are always greater on the Continent. Exceptions certainly exist in particular tracts, but in support of our general argument, we have merely to recall to those of our readers who are of an age to recol- lect the early part of the war, or who have attended to registers of temperature, the more remarkable seasons of the present age. Thus, in 179 1-, the spring was prematurely warm on the Continent as in England : there, as with us, the summer of 1798 w^as dry, and that of 1799 wet: again, in 1811 the harvest was deficient throughout the north-west of Europe generally, from one and the same cause, blight; while that of 1816 was still more generally deficient from rain and want of warmth. In regard to a more remote period, we mean the 17th and 18th centuries generally, if the temperature has not been so accurately noted, we find, from the coincidence in prices, that it is highlyprobable that there prevailed a great similarity between our weather and that of the Continent : thus, in France the latter years of the 17tli century. of ow Agriculturists. 1.53 the seasons of I7O8 and I709, as well as several of the seasons between 1764 and 1773, were as un- propitious and attended with as great an advance of price as in England. Another observation as yet little attended to, but whicli has found a place in the Agricultural Report of 1821, is, that an indifferent season is not always followed by a favourable one, but that two, and even more than t^vo deficiencies of crop occur sometimes in succession. Such was the case in the latter years of Elizabeth, in the reign of William III., and in our own time, in 1799 and 1 800. On each of these occasions the consequences were very serious, leading to a distressing rise of price, and showing all the importance of making the plenty of one year conduce to the relief of another. Less felt in peace than in xvar. — But while in war, the effect of a bad or indifferent season is thus severe, its pressure is greatl}' alleviated by the cheap freight and open communication of a state of peace. On referring to the record of our ])rices during a century and a lialf prior to 1/93, we find that throughout that long period the effect of an unfavourable season was to carry wheat from 40*. to 50s. or 55s., rarely to ()0s. Now 55s. or 60s. in these days were nearly equal to 70.!>'. at the present value of money, and the latter would probably be the ciuTcncy of our market in the event of a partial deficiency like that of 179.5, 1801-, 1809. To carry our peace prices higher would require a fiiihue as general as that of 181(), or two partial deficiencies in succession as in 1799 and 1800. To tliose who think otherwise, we submit two considerations ; first, that the increase of our numbers does not much increase the difficulty of supplying our consump- tion at home; and next, that the range of foreign 154 Situation and Prospects territory from which our corn imports may now be derived is much wider than during last century. Add to this, that a continuance of peace tends in many ways to an equalization of price between difierent countries. The obstacles to emigration ai'e then removed : the tempting jjrotit attendant on government contracts and other war specula- tions no longer detain at home either the individual or his capital : the charges of farming as of pro- ductive industry generally, are calculated closely, and a decided preference is given to the country where those charges are most moderate. Another, and a stiJl more substantial cause of equalization of price is the increased command of capital in peace, the augmented means of buying up the superabun- dance of one year as a supply for the demands of the next. Among other structures of recent date in the vicinity of the Thames, arc warehouses in which corn may be preserved during six or seven years without injury : the expence, which in the case of wheat was, till lately, '^s. a quarter, would be materially lessened in purchases made at the present low prices, as a portion of it arises from interest on the purchase-money. (See Appendix, p. [42].) Re-action of the Market Price of Corn on the Cost of its Production. — If the influence of the seasons has not yet been duly appreciated, much less is that tiie case in regard to another cause of rise and fall which we admit to be somewhat complicated in its nature, and tardy in its operation ; we mean the re-action of tlie market price of corn on the cost of its production. Our object will be best understood • by an analysis of the charges of cultivation, as ex- hibited in tlie subjoined table. of our Agriculturists. 155 Expence of cultivating 100 acres of Arable Land in England, at three distinct periods, calculated on an average of the re- turns made to circular letters from the Board of Agriculture to farmers in different parts of the kingdom. 1790. 1 1803. 1813. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ s. d. Rent 88 6 3J 121 2 7i 161 12 7i Tithe - 20 14. If 26 8 Oi 38 17 3i Rates 17 13 10 31 7 7| 38 19 2f Wear and tear 15 13 5\ 22 11 lOi 31 2 101 Labour - 85 5 4.f 118 4 161 12 \\\ Seed 46 4 104 49 2 7 98 17 10 Manure - 48 3 68 6 2 37 7 Oi Team 67 4 10 80 8 0^ 134 19 8;^ Interest - 22 11 lU 30 3 8^ 50 5 6 Taxes - Total - — — 18 1 4 411 15 IVf 547 10 IH 771 16 4i Note. The article manure is underrated in the last column ; were it fully stated, the aggregate of 1813 would have ex- ceeded 800/. This document presents materials for reasoning of equal importance to the agriculturist and politi- cal economist, exhibiting all the constituent parts of the cost of corn, and enabling us to explain both the high prices of a state of war, and the fall attendant on peace. War. — The effects of war are first felt in the price of labour, the interest of money, and the direct taxes. These all operate to enhance corn : the price of seed is necessarily augmented by such a rise : an increase of tithe, as expressed in money, is a consequence almost equally direct : the ex- pence of team and manure cannot, under such cir- cumstances, be long stationary ; and an advance of poor-rate has, ever since the days of Queen Eliza- |j(i SiiiKtlion and Prospects bc'tli, followed, at no distant date, an augmented price of bread. Such was the progress of farming cliarges during the late wars. The early part of the period was with our farmers a season of complaint, and with the exception of tenants on lease, the partial rise in price, accompanied as it was by high charges, was accounted a disadvantage to agriculturists. After 1804, their situation improved, but it was not till 1809 that the advantage of war to the farmer became great and general. Peace. — Next, as to the reverse of the picture, — the unweaving of that web wliicli owed its tex- tiu'c to a double war and a depreciated currency. Wages, interest of money, the cost of horses, and, in some degree, direct taxes, have all undergone reduction since the peace, in particular since 1820: a fall in the price of seed is a matter of course, while a diminution of tithe and a reduced charge in the bills of tradesmen, are the eventual though less direct results of a decline in the corn market. The remaining charges are rent and poor-rate, both very difficult of reduction, because in the case of land- lords the diminution of expenditure is not equal to the fall of corn, while in that of the poor a decrease in employment retards that reduction of parochial charge, which would otherwise follow the cheap- ness of the necessaries of life. These, however, are only postponements of an unavoidable residt : landlords must resign in peace the monopoly attend- ant on war, while to our labouring classes the ex- tension of manufactures consequent on the fall of provisions, affords relief, not speedv, perhaps, but eventually certain. Wliat then ouscht to bo our inference from the ojour Agricullurhts. L57 preceding reasoning ? That farming charges neces- sarily rise with tlie niarket-j)rice of corn, and as necessarily become reduced by its decline. Now as the reduction of charge is as yet by no means proportioned to the fall of })rice, we are justified in anticipating that the former will become general, and afford, in any event, considerable rehef to the farmers. Evidence before the Agricultural Committee. — Our reasoning may be somewhat elucidated by a reference to the answers of the witnesses examined by the Agricultural Committee of 1821, about the cost of raising a quarter of wheat. They declared 55s. or QOs. (Evidence, pp.37. 55. 72.) to be indis- pensable to meet the charges exclusive of rent ; but that price will be found to supply a fund tor rent also, if we suppose a general diminution of twenty -Jive per cent, on farming charges. An abatement of this nature was, as we have already remarked, evidently in the view of several of the witnesses. One of them, a landsurveyor, declared, (p. 191.) that a price of Gl.v., with 'a proportional reduction of charges^ would afford a fair rent : while another, a farmer residing in Suffolk, ad- verted (p. sn.) to the remarkable fact that 2,000/. forms as efficient a capital at present as 3,000/. in 1817, iind considered that in the event of an abate- ment of one-fourth of rent, poor-rate, labour, tithe, and taxes, 60*. a quarter would afford a fair ))rofit in his county. The answer of a third witness (p. 33.5.) is still more remarkable, for it declares a much lower price to be sufficient in a quarter (East Lothian) where labour is somewhat cheaper, imd tithe happily unknown. How fai- do these conclusions appear to be fami- 1.58 Situation and Prvapccts liar to the majority of those who have written or given evidence on tlie state of our agriculture? Landsurveyors, accustomed to arithmetical calcu- lation, are aware of these truths in a general sense; but the majority of them, like the majority of our farmers, long accustomed to a state of war, have still difficulty in considering as permanent the low prices and low charges of peace. Next as to the Agricultural Report of 1821 ; — that valuable docu- ment seems to have been composed under a con- viction similar to that which we entertain, but un- fortunately it nowhere exhibits a clear and pointed affirmation of the connexion between the price of corn and the cost of raising it. Are loxv Prices likely to continue ? We are now to follo\v up the arguments on the \ery interesting question of a rise or fall in the market price of corn. Those in favour of a rise are — 1st. The expence of bringing into culture new^ soils of inferior quality to meet the wants of our increasing numbers. This, the chief argument of theoretical writers, is already in a great measure answered by the result of the last nine years ; by the evidence that the largest additional produce is obtained from soils already under tillage ; and that the grand means of increase consist in the appli- cation of additional labour to such soils. Our in- closure bills in tlie six years previous to 1815 averaged 11.5 annually ; in the six following years, during which our produce has increased so largely, they averaged only -18 ; a decisive proof tliat the quantity of produce may be kept up and augmented without bringing much new soil under culture. of our Agriculturists. 159 2d. The expence of keeping inferior soils in cul- tivation, and the necessity of abandoning them if low prices continue. This argument carries much more w'eiglit than the preceding, and might pro- duce a kind of revolution in prices were it not counteracted by a cause of most powerful oper- ation, — the decrease in farming charges conse- quent on a decrease in the price of corn. This fact, joined to the increase of our population, will probably prevent the abandonment, to any great extent, of inferior soils. No inference can be drawn from the present situation of our agricul- turists who labour under all the evils of transition and disproportion ; subject at once to heavy charges and low prices. At a time when we are told from so many quarters of over-cropping, of decay of farming stock, and of multiplied bankruptcies, we must necessarily take tor granted that the plough will, to some extent, at least, be withdrawn from the less productive lands. In the parts of Scotland where tillage was carried farthest, this painful alternative seems hardly to be avoided : in J^ng- land, at least in various parts of England, the case is somewhat different : tillage was not so often car- ried to an extreme, and tlie solicitude of the land- lords (Evidence, p. 43.) to prevent the degradation of their estates by paying for lime and other requi- sites to the maintenance of good husbandry, will operate to lessen this and other evils. Add to this the remarkable fact, that after all the extension given to our tillage in the present age, the propor- tion of ground under the plough and spade is (Napier*s Supplement to the Encyclopjvdia, head of France, p. 373.) considerably smaller in Eng- land than in France. Add also another fact hardly less important, that the practice of drilling corn, so KJO Si hid hi) II (I IK J rrospects lately introduced, is particidarly suitable to second- rate soils. But su])posing that the tillage of inferior soils were relinquished to a ceitain extent both in Eng- land and Scotland, it does not necessarily follow tiiat the amount of our produce would decrease : our labour must be employed somehow, and would be transferred to the riclier soils. A diminution of production is altogether contrary to the disposition of our countrymen : an increase of quantity, even when an article sells for a low price, is more in correspondence with their active and enterprizing habits. No decrease of our agricultural produce took place during the long stagnation of last cen- tury ; durhig the fifty years that elapsed between 1713 and 17()o. And if we advert to a parallel case in the present age, that of our West India Sugar planters, we shall find that during a number of years, (180^. 1805, 6, 7,) their produce as little paid the expence of raising it, as corn does at present. A number of estates were abandoned; in others, the cultivation was reduced ; but this was so effectually balanced by the increased produc- tiveness of the richer soils, that very little, if any, diminution took place in the total quantity raised. 3d. A protecting Duty on Foreign Cor?i. — The efficacy or non-efficacy of such a measure is, in a great degree, matter of opinion. Without as- suming a decisive tone on either side, we shall have occasion to show in the next section that a high duty would by no means cause a permanent rise in our corn market, and that the only safe course is to regard the last thirty years as a period peculiar in its circumstances, and altogether dif- oJ'oLir Agriculturists. 161 i'erent from a season of j)eace. We ought in tlie next place, to cany l^ack our view to the period preceding IJOS, and ascertain whether tiie increase of the charge of raising corn arising from taxes or otherwise, exceeds the saving attendant on the im- provements adopted in our luisbandry. In that pro- portion only would it be j)racticable to maintain an increase of price : any attempt to carry it higher would be defeated by the extension of our home growth. Agriculture, like trade, has its projectors ; men ready to transfer to it capital from other pursuits, and wlio would find, })articularly in Ire- land, many rich tracts open to tlieir speculations, now tiiat there remains so little inducement to keep them in pasture. The only method, therefore, of giving the established farmer a fair chance is, to be very s})aring of bounties, protecting duties, and other stinudants ; the effect of which is unnatural, temporary, and eventually pernicious to those who receive them. 4th. Conti/igciic// (>/' a bad Season. — On this bead we liave already attempted a calculation, showing that in former })eriods of peace the extent of rise varied from 10.y. to "^O.y. on the (juarter of wheat, according to the degree of failure in the harvest. Under present circumstances, this limited advance is much more likely to characterise our markets than the greater fluctuation that took place in the late wars. That our prices of wheat are not likely to exceed 55 or ()0.y., is confirmed bv some arguments of a more consolatory nature ; viz. IVie increase of our groxi'lli from the di/fhsiofi of the improved ITushandrj/. Under this head we are disposed to class the more general introduction of drilling ; the farther consolidation of small farms ; M H')''2 Situation and Proapects and the more frequent a(loj)tioii of leases when the changes in our money system shall have reach- ed their termination. For her pasturage England is deservedly celebrated, but her tillage is only par- tially good. In no branch of our national industrv has improving exam])le been as yet less generally followed : in none has it a wider field to occupy. The reduced Interest of Moneij The fall of interest on public securities since the peace is about one per cent., and the prospect is in favour of some farther decrease ; or rather, that the reduc- tion, at present partial, will become general, and be communicated to private as well as public securi- ties. No line of business oilers at present a tempt- ing return ; nor is any likely to withdraw money investments from agriculture. Add to this, that from the reduced price of all farming stock, the appropriation of 1000/. to farming (Evidence, Agri- cultural Committee, p. 86.) is likely soon to be equi- valent to that of SOOO/. in the time of high prices. Such are the principal arguments against any material rise in our corn market ; and if their conjunct effect be merely to give us the supply of a three weeks' consumption above the average of our crops in war, the result will be a prevention of high prices, so nearly did our growth approach even in former years to our consumption. Contingency of War. — In the event of war, all these anticipations would be overturned : our ca- pital would no longer be abundant ; our naviga- tion no longer cheap ; while fiom no branch of our industry would labourers be more generally withdrawn for cjovernment service than from as-ri- culture. At present, however, we leave this for- midable contingency out of the question: in France, of our Agriculturists, Ifi^ the only country which immediately affects our foreign politics, there exist the strongest reasons for adhering to a j)acific course ; and if that govern- ment be induced for a time to deviate from it, the recurrence of a state of war so general as that which followed the French Revolution, is certainly not to be expected in the life-time of the })resent generation. Or, if we admit it to be impracticable to reason with confidence on so wide a question, there is at least one point which we may safely take for granted, viz. that our public men, in the event of a new appeal to arms, will abstain from two of the measures, which, more than any other, contri- buted to raise our corn market, — interference with our currency, and the stoppage of neutral navigation. " These they will shun through all the dire debate, And' dread those arms whose force they felt so late."' Prospect of Relief to Fanners. — This question, though a]:)parently identified with that of lise of ])rice, will be ibund on examination to rest on very different grounds, and to present, happily, a less imfavourable prospect. Tlu' reasons for this opi- nion are, — 1. The interest of all farmers wlio are not tenants on lease (Evidence, Agricultural Committee, pp. 49. 1*^0.) is to ha\e not a hii;'h, hut a stead ij price. Taken in a ])ermanent view, that ])rice is most desirable which gives stability to our manufactures, and prevents our continental rivals from Inning too great a superioHty over us in the nuiiii point of subsistence. 2. Our growth, if it equal, does not, in ordinary seasons, exceed our consumption ; a situation a good deal different from that of our agriculturists I(j4 Situation and Prospects after the peace of Utrecht. This fact, it" it does not justify the expectation of a rise of price, affords, when considered along with our increasing num- bers, a kind of guarantee of the past ; a security against the abandonment, to any great extent, of the inferior soils. 3. The tendency of agricultural charges to de- crease with the market-price of corn, and of the rate of profit in every line to approach to a common standard. 4 Tithe. — Since war and high prices can no longer enter into the calculation of our agricul- turists, it becomes indispensable for them, as for the equally unfortunate sugar planter, to seek relief in a reduction of expence. In this by far the most effectual step would be a commutation of tithe, an exchange of a crude, unequal, and at present oppressive, mode of providing for the clergy, for a contribution from the public generally ; a change which would be facilitated by the growing nature of our financial resources, and for which, as shall be showni in a subsequent passage (p. 185), the landed interest would be able to make an adequate return to the public. 5. Poor-rate. — To this subject we shall shortly appropriate a chapter, and take occasion to show how little information is as yet possessed either by government or individuals, in regard to various essential points, such as the different modes of distributing relief, the number of poor in work- houses, the allowance granted for children, and finally, the proportion of disburse for law charges, removals, and other outlay, distinct from the relief of the poor. With such evidence of imperfect information, (acknowledged in the Report on Poor- rate, July 15. 182^,) is it too much to question, whe- ther we act an equitable part in continuing the pre- of our Agriculturists. 165 sent mode of assessment ? Without at all entertain- ing the proposition of rendering poor-rate national, we may claim attention to the arguments for a more limited change, for rendering it an equal tax on the parish or district, the levy being made not on rent but on income generally, and extending to other classes besides the farmer and householder. These considerations confirm the hope that, eventually, the situation of our agriculturists will alter, and our tillage be carried on without the im- poverishment of a most useful and respectable body of men. Still tlieir distress must, under any circum- stances, continue some time longer, and be shared by the numerous persons resident in towns whose livelihood depends on ministering either to the wants of tlie farmer or the luxury of the landlord. Every feeling mind must sympathize with those industrious classes, whether in town or country, whose ])rivations, very different fiom those of their superiors, too often imply the renunciation of real comfort. They have, however, already experienced considerable relief from reduction in their expen- diture ; and a cheering, though somewhat indirect prospect, is opened to them from the improved condition of other classes. All must allow that the sum withdrawn from agricultural income has been far too great in its amoiuit and too sudden in its deduction ; but it is a consolation that it does not, like shi})Wrecked merchandize, or the expence of an indecisive cainj)aign, form a total and absolute loss to the community : it is compensated, as tar as the evil of sudden transition admits of compen- sation, by the cheaper maintenance of our manu- facturers, the prevention of their emigration, and the ultimate benefit arising to our agriculturists from their consumption on a more liberal scale. M 3 lOCi SECTION III. A Protecting Didy. We come now to the portion of our subject which caused so much discussion in tlie session of 1822 — the imposition of such a duty on fbreifj^n corn as shall afford protection to our agriculturists. Our reasoning on this head will be found materially different from that of the majority of parliamentary speakers, the amount of duty appearing to us a secondary object to the public at large ; while to our agriculturists, it would, if raised to an undue height, be replete with as pernicious consequences as the bounty act of last century. Without further preamble, we proceed to examhie the following points : — The comparative burdens on agricidture in France and England. How far our manufactures receive protection from our custom duties. The danger of over-extending our tillage. The tendency of oiu' commercial legislation to the abolition of all restrictions. A populous Country not necessarily ejrpensive. England is, after tlie Netherlands, the portion of Europe in which population is both most dense as to numbers, and most closely connected by roads and canals. Compared to us, the inhabitants of Duty on Foreign Conu I67 France, on an equal surface, are in the proportion of only two to three ; and the degree of separation is very materially increased by another cause — the inferiority of the roads and the want of water com- munication. Germany is still more interior to England, both in numbers and in frequency of inter- course ; and it is needless to show how much more the deficiency prevails in the other parts of Europe, in Spain, Sweden, Poland, Russia. The point at issue is, to ascertain whether density of population necessarily tends to raise prices, to render a coun- try dearer than its scantily peopled neighbour? That it has in an eminent degree that tendency is the general impression and report of those among our travelling countrymen, who found their in- ferences on a few points most obvious to common observation, such as the moderate price of labour on the Continent, and the no less moderate rate of excise duties ; but they overlook the various con- siderations on the opposite side of the question, such as the general inferiority of machinery and workmanship, the loss of time caused by distance from towns, and by the necessity of doing })ersonallv that which, in a busy, commercial coinmunity, is prepared by others, and obtained by purchase. In a subsequent publication, when treating of '* Eco- nomy and lletrencinnent," we shall take occasion to explain the distinction between real and ap])arent saving, and describe the habitual waste of time in j)etty occu})ations by the inhabitants of ])rovincial towns on the Continent : at present our wish is merely to lay down the general rule, that a popu- lation dense, improved, affluent, does not neceS' sarih/ render a country more expensix e than one that is poor and thinly inhabited. The diflerence is tit ilie mode of living, not in the price of the articles. M 4 lC)H ()i(y Afiricultutr ; An increase of population, by leading to an abridg- ment of" labour, and to the transaction of business en masscy brings with it a dispatch and an extent of accommodation ; the saving from which is equal, we believe more than equal, to the enhancement in provisions attendant on augmented numbers. It is not in towns of moderate size, however near each other, but only in the case of an overgrown capital, such as London, Paris, or Constantinople, that the real and unavoidable difterence of expence becomes considerable. Holland and England are, it is true, dearer throughout all their provincial towns than the rest of Europe ; but that is owing partly to style of living, partly to high taxation, — to the price paid by either country for the rank which it has maintained in the scale of European })olitics. Were we to subject individual expenditure to an analysis, and to keep separate the portion of it which results from these causes, we should find that our actual prices, the purchase money of com- modities at market, are not, on the whole, much greater than in other countries. o These remarks are general, and apply to all classes of society. We now proceed to the point more immediately in question, the situation of our agriculturists. Comparative Burdens on French and British Agriculture. That the pressure on our agricidture is greater than on that of our neighbours is sufficiently known, or rather, sufficiently believed ; for very few per- sons have been at pains to analyze the burdens on either. On our side, they consist of tithe, poor- xatii, land-tax, along with a participation in the Dutfi on Foreign Corn. 1()9 assessed taxes, tlie excise duties, and the customs. To begin with the burdens directly apphcable to agriculture — tithe and poor-rate — we are inclined, in consequence of tlie tall of corn, to anticipate that these charges, as Jar as paid by the landed interest^ and as far poor-rale is dislinct from xcages, will, ere long, be reduced to a sum of about 7»00(),()0()/. for both. The amount of the land-tax, adding the redeemed to tiie unredeemed, is about 2,000,000/. ; making together a sum of somewhat more than 9,000,000/. To this formidable burden the French may, with a qualification to be mentioned pre- sently, oppose their ^owc/er, or assessment on real property; which, after the ])artial reduction of late years, still forms a charge of 17 or 18 per cent., not on the rent merely, but on the rent and farmer's profit together. Next come our assessed taxes, which, in their present reduced state, are ]n-o- bably balanced by the porles et Jenetres of our southern neighbours, when added to the mohi^ lierj or tax on the reputed value of furniture. Our stamps, swelled as they have been during the late wars, are considered by our landlords as a very serious charge, whether on leases, sales, or loans ; and a member of Parliament, remarked for his acquaintance with such subjects *, went lately the length of asserting that this charge was the most heavily felt of any by our agriculturists. Heavy, however, as it is, even after the modification granted in 1822, its pressure is equalled, in respect to sales at least, by the French enregisti-ement, a duty of no less than 5 per cent, on the })urchase money, which, added to the other departments of the stamps, produces an amount of .3,()0(),000/. ; a * Mr. Frankland Lewis. 170 Otir Agriculture ; Kun)risiii^ sum to collect from a country never renmrkiible for its wealth. So far we may be said to have preserved ecjuaHty in our com})arisons : we now come to j)oints in which there necessarily prevails a difference, though less great than is commonly imagined. Thus, in regard to the charges incurred in the course of cul- tixation, \iz. seed, manure, wear and tear, working cattle, — the difference, very great during the war, has lost, or is now losing, much of its amount. The cost, as expressed in money, is still, we admit, smaller in France ; but in the case of implements, and, in some measure, in that of working cattle, the difference means little more than inferiority of quality ; an inferiority not unlike that whicli would be exhibited by a parallel between our agriculture of the present age and that of the beginning or middle of the last century. A similar remark ap- plies to the domestic expences of a farmer. The difference lies in the style of living more than in the price of the articles ; for in two material points, clothing and fuel, the cost is not higher in England than on the opposite side of the Channel. The fuel of the rural districts of France is generally wood ; sometimes, though rarely, it consists, as in Ireland, of turf or peat. We come next to a highly important part of agricultural disburse, the price of labour ; a point in which the balance is greatly in favour of France, the wages of an able-bodied labourer not exceed- ing (Chaptal sur ITndustrie Fran^aise, vol. i. p. 245.) six shillings a week without victuals, a rate considerabl}' below any reduction that we can reasonably expect from the lall in the price of provisions. Nor is this advantage lessened, as some of our countrymen may imagine, by any DuU) on Foreign Corn. I7I personal inferiority on the part of the French pea- santry, who repair to their work at as early hours, and continue enn-aged in it with as much steadi- ness and activity as our own labourers. Add to this, that the saving we have mentioned is en- joyed by the French farmer equally in the case of domestic servants, whose diet is plain and whose habits are sober. In what, then, shall we be able to find on our side of the Channel a counterpoise to this essential advantage? — First, our imple- ments, particularly those of iron, being much superior, enable men of the same bodily power to do more work, or to do it better. Secondly, the use of machinery, such as thresliing-mills or drill- ing-implements, is almost totally unknown in France. Thirdly, our farms are of appropriate size ; while those of our neighbours, limited often to such petty occupancies as those of our an- cestors of the l()th and 17th centuries, aiibrd no field for the beneficial employment of either capital or machinery. Lastly, our farmers, in borrowing money, pay an interest less by one or two per cent, than is required in France, six or seven per cent, being still a very common rate in that country. A long list of tiie agricultural disl)ursements of the two countries is thus made to balance, and tlie remainder of tlie parallel is brought within a com- paratively narrow coiiqiass. It may, in fact, be considered as reduced to two points : on the one hand, the contingency of beueHt to the English agriculturist from a protecting duty; on the other, the heavier excise and customs to which he is sub- jected. A protecting duty is not unknown in France ; and, under the provisions of the late acts of 1819 and 18^21, the price of l(i.y. or I7.V. 172 Our A<:rkiiliurc ; lor llio Winchester quarter of wheat is apparently secured to the farmer; but, in a country which i>e?ierally i!;rows its full consuni})tion, regulations affecting import must be of rare and temporary oj)eration. We pass over, therefore, this frail su})port, and proceed to the permanent and substantial points of difference in the condition of the British and French farmer. These will be found in the mag- nitude of our taxes on consumption. Our custom duties, being chiefly on luxuries, do not very greatly affect our agriculturists ; but, among our excise duties, the tax on leather, which, after the late reduction, still forms a burden of nearly 1. '50,000/. on our peasantry, is unknown in France; while our duties on malt, beer, and corn-spirits, amounting, after the abatement made in 182'2, to the surprising sum of 9,000,000/. sterling, are feebly met by the French taxes on wine, cider, and malt. In years of over-stock of corn, as since 1820, the whole of the very large sum w^e have mentioned may be said to form a charge on our agriculturists, exactly as the tax on sugar, in a season of over-growth, falls on the West India planter. These, however, are happily extreme cases ; and we shall at present suppose them out of the question, calculating that of such duties no more usually falls on our agriculture than the portion paid for the consumption of the farmers and peasantry. Even then, it will exhibit a sum of 8 or 4,000,000/. sterling ; a sum which, added to the 1,000,000/. by which our tithe and poor-rate exceed the French, /o//r/V'r, may be said to represent the greater share of public burdens (1 or o, 000,000) borne by the British agriculturist. If we brino- these charo-es into the fonn of a Dutij on Foreign Corn, I73 comparative per centage, we shall find that the Jbncier in France nia\, after making allowance lor all abatements and omissions, be computed at 18 per cent, of the rent and tanning profit ; while in England, tlie amount t)f Umd-tax, tithe, poor-rate, and additional excise-duties, tbrm a tax on rent and farming income to tlie extent of ^Z5 })er cent. The result is, a heavier burden on the English agri- culturists, to the extent of 7 or 8 per cent., except in as far as it receives an occasional counterpoise from the duty on tlie import of tbreign corn.* What then, it may be asked, has been, during the present age, the respective situations of the agriculturists in France and this country? The war was productive of a rise of rent in both ; but w^hile in France that rise was comparatively slen- der, in this country it doubled, and in many "cases more than doubled, the payments of 179- ; so that in 181-i the landed rental of Great Britain and Ire- land considerably exceeded that of their southern neigh])our. The rental of Fiance, however, was much jnore secure : the price of corn in that coun- try is little lower in peace than in war ; and the travellers who passed o\er her departments did not, until last year, hear nnich of those reductions of rent and wages which among us have been re- quired on so large a scale since the peace. The price accounted sufficient to enable French farmers to make a livelihood and ])ay taxes is about IJ.v. the Winchester quarter, in j)eace. We shall now suspend oiii- continental parallel, and bestow a few paragraphs on one of a tlifierent • In Scotland tlic burden is much k-ss, tin- iigriculturist-; of that part of the kingdom being comparatively exempt from tithe, poor-rate, and land-tax. 171 Our Aixriculturc ; lni-I:ivvs : at one time hy a bounty on export, at allot her by a restriction on import. ^^'hat, it may l)e asketl, was the real motive on the j)art of oovernment for these multitbrm regu- lations — this long list of duties, drawbacks, boun- ties ? Not to confer on any of the parties, whether agriculturist or manufacturer, an absolute advan- tage ; but to reconcile them to the taxes imposed on the respective articles of their produce, and to prevent foreigners from underselling them in the home market. Under this impressio!i, and con- sidering the amount of tithe and poor-rate at present a dead loss to the landed interest, we can hardly coincide with the argument in the Agri- cultural Report of 18^21 (pp. '23, ^24.), that our landholders have not a right to custom-house pro- tection. Our hesitation would arise from a very different cause : first, from a doubt of the efficacy of a protecting duty ; and, next, from a dread that the expectation which it would so generally excite, might, as in the case of the bounty, lead to excess of home growth. Danger of an over-crtension of our Tillage. This danger, which some years ago would have been treated as chimerical, we now find to have as strong a claim to attention and to precautionary measures, as the hazard of an over-extension of* manufacture. Of the truth of this our readers will be satisfied on referring to our arguments in the preceding section ; and, above all, to the fact, that with so small a number of enclosure acts (forty-eight annually), we ha\ e found the means of meeting every year, since the peace, the demand of the -^00,000 consumers annually added to oiu: Duty on Foreign Corn. 177 population. To what can this be mainly owing, except to tlie diffusion of improved methods, to the application of additional labour and capital to soils already under tillage ? And who, in this age of agricultural discovery, in this season of abun- dant supply, both as to labour and capital, can with confidence predict either the limit or the result of such application ? In prosecuting this incpiiry, our readers may, we believe, leave at once out of consideration all arguments against the increase of our growth, fbnnded on the expence of reclaiming poor soils ; not that such expence is over-rated by Mr. Ri- cardo and others, but because it is unnecessary, a larger produce being obtained by bestowhig addi- tional culture on the better soils. If in regard to England and Scotland, our conclusions are called in question, and it is maintained that recourse to inferior soils must ere long follow an increase of our numbers, our reasoning can hardly be contested in respect to the sister island, where such extensive tracts of fertile land await the application of a better system. Under such circumstances, what security have our established farmers against the agricultural speculator, except in a measure at first apparently disadvantageous to them, we mean the removal of a tempting contingency, and an assurance, as far as can be conveyed by legislative regulation, that the j)rospects of agriculture are not of a nature to justify the transfer of ca})ital from other lines of business? The true interest of both farmer and landlord is to beware of extending tillage, to ada))t our growth, as nearly as they can, to our consumption ; and to keep tlie former, were it practicable, somewhat below the latter, sub- mitting, asafiter 177^, to a small hut regular import. N V/fi Our Agriculture. It is that course alone wliich can give assurance oi' a steady demand, of a generally brisk market. The Corn committee of 1813. — This Committee, actuated by a mixture of" ignorance and selfislmess, liardly to be credited in men of tlieir station in society, ventured to recommend the prohil)ition of import, except when our own wheat shouhl be at or above 105.y. tlie quarter. Now, if with the compaiatively small encouragement held out by 80*. our tillage has so mucli increased, how much greater would have been the augmentation had the extravagant proposition of the committee been adopted by parliament ? What an extent of inferior soil would have been brought under the plough in the course of two years ! What an overstock on tile market before discovering the inefficiency of a corn-law to keep up prices ! — an overstock ad- mitting not of remedy, like excess of import, by shutting our harbours, but remaining in force for years, perhaps requiring the ruinous alternative of abandoning land under tillage. The ^weekly Averages. — Among the various ex- pedients suggested by the distress of late years, was that of comprehending in the returns, which form our weekly averages, such Irish wheat as is sold in England : the result of this, in consequence of the inferiority of Irish wheat, is to render a return of 60,$. equivalent as a representative of price, to 625. or 63i'. on the former plan of taking the aver- ages. Under present circumstances this has no practical effect ; but were our market to rise, we should soon see that all expedients of this nature tended to stimulate production to a hazardous extent. Objections to a high import duty. — After these arguments, we may venture to hazard an Duly on Foreign Corn. 179 opinion, which would otherwise have appeared not a Uttle paradoxical, \iz. that in peace the injury resulting from a high duty on foreign corn would in all })rol)ability be greater to the producers than to the consumers of provisions. Were a high duty imposed, the rise of price would be temporary: extremes soon produce their own cure, and con- sumers might safely trust to the extension of home culture. The evil, however, would not stop there: the agricultiuist would be sunk in distress by overproduction, and the merchants and manufac- turers would consequently be subjected to an extra share of the public burdens. Hence the impor- tance of maturely weighing, not the demands of a particular class, but the interest of the public in the most comprehensive sense. Farther, the misfortune of the present day is less, the reduction of income than the existence of inequality, the evil of transition; and the public are entitled to expect such measures as shall set at rest this ruinous fluctuation. If our present desideratum be a general reduction of wages, sala- ries, and other money payments, not yet brought to their level, nothing, it is clear, can so effectually j)romote that object as a moderate rate of duty on foreign corn ; an assurance, as far as assurance can be given, of our market being kept at a steady ])rice. How satisfactory to merchants, manufac- turers, annuitants, and, above all, to farmers, to know on what })robable price of corn the}- are to found their future calculations, to fix wages and salaries, to regulate their domestic ex})enditure ! In what manner, it maybe asked, can a reference to the past be jnade instrumental in guiding us to a knowledge of the rate which forms a! fit protecting diitv? B\' fixing our attention on the cost of .N 'I 180 Our Agriculture. raising wheal, nol in a period such as that of the last thirtyyears, a period as anomalous in productive industry as in })()litics ; but at a time when Europe enjoyed that tranquillity which she has ha})pily now in prospect. Comparing the present and the former charges on our tillage, we shall find that labour, team, manure, may and ought soon to be brought back to a rate not much exceeding that of 1792 : that tithe is necessarily proportioned to the market price of corn, and must follow its fall ; while poor-rate, though more difficult of reduction, ought to yield to the substantial advantage of cheap provisions, and the opportunity of work afforded by our manufactures. All those considerations are of a nature to show that the late Corn bill, which admits foreign wheat when our own attains the average of 7O5. has not brought our import limit too low, Tendency of our Legislation to ultimate Freedom of Trade. We shall now suspend, for a few moments, the consideration of temporizing measures, of the ex- pedients devised to meet the pressure of the day, and carry our speculations to a more distant object ; to the probable situation of our agriculturists and manufacturers of the next generation. In their time, our financial circumstances will probably by more favourable ; and parliament, relieved from imme-» diate urgency, may legislate vdih no other view than that of the permanent advantage of the public. It was long an opinion among our countrymen, that the landed and commercial bodies had opposite interests ; that a tax imposed on the land was of no particular detriment to trade ; and that the Duty on Foreign Corn. 181 gains of our merchants were of little consequence to agriculture. In tlie ])resent age a more ample experience, a community of suffering on the part of these great portions of the community, have taught them a more liberal doctrine. It is no where more emphatically urged than in the passage (p. ^0.) of the Agricultural Report of 18^21, where the intimate connexion, the strict dependence of agriculture and trade on each other, are proved by the evidence of the last hundred years of our history. Assuming, therefore, that such will be the ultimate basis of our legislative measures, we are naturally led to take a view of our productive industry some- what more comprehensive than in the preceding paragraphs, and to inquire on what particular advan* tages our national prosperity has been and is likely to be established. Advantages ofyarticular Countries. — Every conn - try possesses its physical characteristics, its peculiar and distinctive aptitudes. If, adverting to the early history of civilization, we cast our eyes over a map of Greece, and observe how much interi- course was there facilitated by maritime inlets, and by insular positions in a sea of easy navigation, we shall find it easy to account for the early im- provement of that country, without ascribing any great share of influence to fortunate accidents, to the exploits of warriors, or the coimsels of legis- lators. If we take a wider range, and inquire by what features the physical structure of Europe is discriminated from that of Asia or Africa, we shall find its advantages consist partly in a climate exempt from extremes, but more ijii the ample means of navigation afforded by the Mediterranean and the Baltic. Lastly, if^ drawing nearer home, N .3 182 Old- AfrrkuUiuc. we endeavour to ascertain how it happened thai Flanders was flourisliini; amidst the barbarism of* tlie thirteentli and fourteenth centuries, we shall trace it principally to two causes ; fertility of soil and ease of water communication. The latter, joined to the advantage of a free government, explains the still more remarkable growth of the Dutch provinces in the seventeenth century. Of England. — By what peculiar advantages has England been distinguished, and enabled to take the lead of France and Germany, countries equally favoured in soil and climate ? In a religious and political sense, our superiority has consisted in the enjoyment of the reformed faith and a represen- tative government ; in a physical sense, in our extent of coast, and in the productiveness of our coal mines. Natural superiority of another kind we can hardly boast : our pasture is, indeed, richer than that of continental countries, and we conse- quently take the lead in horses, cattle, and, in some degree, in the woollen manufacture ; but whatever comes under the description of agricultural advan- tages, ought, we believe, to be left out of the question, and to be considered as balanced by the less variable temperature, the greater warmth of the continent. Our farming is, indeed, much more advanced ; but is not that the result of indirect causes, of the reaction of our trade and manu- factures, of the application of capital to tillage and pasturage, and of our tenantry being thus en- abled to occupy farms of suitable size, instead of the insignificant tenures still so common among tmr neighbours ? In what manner, it may be asked, is this reason- ing applicable to the present discussion, the question of a protecting duty on corn ? Our answer is, that Duty on Foreign Corn. 183 we should greatly mistake our uatioual prospects were we to suppose that we liave as yet received all the benefit attainable from our superiority in the grand points of fuel and navigation ; — on the con- trary, it may safely be asserted, that we are not yet in the midst of oiu' career, not half-advanced in the task of turning these advantages to account. Continental countries are making a very slow pro- gress, either in navigating the ocean, in forming canals, or in working coal mines : in each of these our superiority still offers an ample basis for the superstructure of national wealth. It woidd pro- bably be such as to enable our manufacturers, though taxed in regard to provisions, to maintain a competition with their continental rivals ; but it is perfectly clear that they never will be able to do JuU justice to our national advantages until placed on a footing of equality in that very essential point. A reference to our custom-house returns would soon show how small our export of articles, such as hardware, glass, and even woollens, is, in compari- son with what it might be, were equahty in the price of provisions added to our otiier advantages. A free Import of Corn. — This opens to our view all the advantage that woukl arise from a free trade in corn, or from the reduction of the protect- ing duty to a lower scale than has as yet been con- tem])iated, eitlier by ministers or by the most tem- perate of their opponents. * In another place (see Appendix) we have appropriated a few paragra})hs to this topic ; and these, under present circum- stances, arc, perhaps, all that it is advisable to urge in regard to it. The landed interest are as yet but imperfectly apprised of the'extenl of its ultimate * Ricardo on Agriculture, pp. ^2, 83. N 4 184 Our Ai<:riculture. is' advantage to them ; nor can we expect that their attention will, for some time, be weaned from the hi^h prices, the great nominal rents of the years of war. If our ministers are more deeply read in the science of national wealth, more fully convinced of the reaction of the ])rosperity of trade and maim- facture on agriculture, they have objections of another kind ; they cannot but regard a fall of prices as a virtual augmentation of the public debt. They are aware, likewise, of tlie evils of transition ^ and must, to use the language of the Agricultural Report, be anxious " to spare vested interests, and to deal tenderly even with obstacles to im- provement, when long implanted in our system/' To all these difficulties we have to add, that the exemption of our agriculture from its extra share of poor-rate, and from tithe in England as well as Ireland, would be an indispensable preliminary to a measure which would bring our corn market almost as tow as that of the Continent. Now government, how- ever convinced of the impolicy of these burdens in theirpresent shape, could hardly fail to consider a change in long-established assessments, above aU, a new demand on our exchequer, as replete with embaiTassment. Several of the late measures of ministers, such as the limitation of the Sinking fund, the remission of the most injurious of our taxes, tlie extended freedom of navigation, the transfer of the half pay and pension list into Long Annuities, evidently proceed on sound calculation. They seem to indicate an adequate estimate of our resources on the part of our ])olitical guides ; bufe the free import of corn would be so gyeat a de- parture from our past policy, and would involve so many accompanying changes, that we can contem- plate it only as a remote Jesuit, as less likely to be Duty on Foreign Corn. 185 the consequence of any arguments that can possibly be urged, than of a continuation of lo\v])rices; which, by reducing the cost of production, and replacing our tenantry in nearly the same situation as in 1792, may cause our corn laws to expire by a natural death. Such were our views of this interesting subject last year, on sending to press the first edition. Since then, there have oc- curred several circumstances favourable to an approximation to a system of" freedom, and to the hope of that advantage which always arises from the removal of restraints from pro- ductive industry. The lapse of time, the reduction of charges, and the prospect of continued peace, have gradually accus- tomed both landlord and farmer to regard 60*. for a quarter of wheat in the light of a remunerating price : the next step may be to consider it as a kind of standard for the duty on the import of foreign corn. Now, so soon as the landed mterest shall be willing to permit import on the average price of our wheat exceeding 60*., they will be entitled to call on the public for decisive concessions in regard to tithe and poor-rate, — in other words, by giving an assurance of a permanently moderate price to the consumer, they will have a right to demand that these burdens (tithe and poor-rate) shall be shared by the public at large. Are the recent measures of nn'nisters of a nature to promise a concurrence in this plan of mutual concession? To this we are inclined to answer in the affirmative, and, with confidence, whether we look to the personal change in the Chancellorship of the Exchequer; to the reduction so promptly made in the assessed taxes ; to the limits which, as far as we can judge, men in office think it fit to affix to the Sinking Fund; and, above all, to the introduction of the too long delayed measure for the commutation of tithe in Ireland. Of the power of the monied interest to come to the relief of their countrymen engaged in agriculture, we shall treat in our Goncluding chapter. 186 CHAP, VI. Poor- Rate. 1 HE subject of poor-rate has already engaged so much attention both in parUamentary investigations and pubHshed works, that we shall avoid all ge- neral discussion, and confine ourselves to what may be termed plain, practical topics, such as the com- parative amount of money distributed at different dates to the poor, and the degree of pressure on the contributors. We take up the subject less as a national question, than as an appendage to our observations on agriculture : but oiu* summary, brief as it may be, will, we trust, explain two points, at present little understood ; — the great increase of parochial charge during the war, when labour in general was so liberally paid, and the very considerable reduction that is now taking place, notwithstanding the apparently less favour- able state of our productive industry. We propose to treat successively of the — Origin and progress of our poor-law system j Its degree of pressure considered as a tax ; Its effect on the condition of the lower orders. Origm of our Poor Laws. — The origin of the English poor laws, a system so chfferent from that of neighbouring countries, is to be traced to two causes, — the call, at the time of the Reformation, for a provision for the poor, when depri\ed of charitable aid from monasteries ; and the enhance- ment, both progressive and rapid, which, as ex- plained in the preceding chapter, took place in Our Poor Law System. 187 provisions during the l6th century. If the former offered a fair j)lca for the new system, the latter presented the moie substantial grounds, since the rise of wages seldom keeps pace with a rise in pro- visions. The conjunct operation of these causes led to various enactments in favour of the poor, which were definitively consolidated in the act of 1601, — an act prepared with all the care and de- liberation characteristic of the ministers of Eliza- beth, and which would never have received a per- nicious extension had its execution fallen into proper hands. Its provisions were intended at first for the relief of merely the aged and infiim, and led to little beyond the degree of aid afforded at present to the poor in Scotland or in France ; but, from unfitness on the part of annually changed overseers, and from the remissness always attendant on the disposal of pubHc property, when unchecked, the act received, in time, a wider construction. It was interpreted into an obligation to find work for the unemployed generally, as well as to make up to those who had children the disproportion which in dear seasons took })lace between the price of bread and the I'ate of wages. Our poor-rate became thus a fund, not merelv for charitable ])urposes, but for the equalization of wages ; a counteqjoise to the fluctuations arising from inclement seasons, or from any cause ])ro- ducti\e of a rapid fall in the \alue of moneA. This result, certainly well intended, and which at first sight seems of beneficial operation, is found, on trial, to be replete with all that irregidarity and abuse vvliich it is so difficult to avoid in any int(^r- ference with the natural course of productixc industry. Of tiiis, a striking jirnof is given, not only hi this countiT, but in the New England 188 Our Poor Law System; states, and in the state of New York ; for even in these, the countries of tlie world in which the pay of the hiboiirer is most Hberal, the number of paupers has become large. They are, happily, the only foreign coimtries in which our example has been imitated. On the continent of Europe, the public institutions afford j)rotection only against in- firmity and extreme penury : even Holland, so long noted for its hospitals and charities, has not a poor- rate on the comprehensive plan of England. Its Progressive Extension. — Our records of the distribution of relief to tlie poor during the seven- teenth century are very imperfect : its amount, however, must have been considerable in the first half of the century, in consequence of the con- tinued rise of corn during the reign of James I., and part of that of Charles I. But during the thirty years that intervened from I66O to I69O, the price of corn w^as on the decline, and the country experienced in no great degree either the visitation of inclement seasons or the burden of military expenditure. In the reigns of William and Anne the case was far different; an enhancement of corn consequent on bad seasons, on war, and in- terrupted navigation, concurred with the disorder in our currency to render a state of suffering general among the lower orders, and to give a melancholy corroboration to their claims for paro- chial relief The number of persons receiving such aid is said (Clarkson on Pauperism), to have amounted, towards the close of the seventeenth century, to as large a portion of our popidation as at present, viz. a tenth part of the inhabitants of England and Wales. The amount of money •collected ibr this purpose has not been put on its Origin and Progress. 189 record : it is said, somewhat loosely, but without much appearance of exaggeration *, to have ap- proached at the period in question to a million sterling ; a burden heavily felt in these days of limited rental, and productive consequently of great complaints. The long peace and reduced price of provisions which followed the treaty of Utrecht, were both conducive to the decrease of poor-rate, and, not' withstanding an increase in our population, we find that, in tlie middle of tlie century, viz. in the three years ending with 17''50, its amount did not (Reports on the Poor Laws in 1817 and 1821) exceed an average of - - - - 700,000/, After 1760, the charge for the poor participated in the general charge which took place in the state of prices, and amounted in that year to 96.5,000/., while at a subsequent date, in 1770, it was car. ried to 1,306,000/. ; so much did the effect of indifferent seasons and the enhancement of corn counterbalance the othei-- wise favourable circumstances of the latter period . the enjoyment of peace, the extension of our manufactures. Next came the contest with our colonies, along with the various losses attendant on interrupted export, and the suspension of un- dertakings dependent on a low interest of money, the result of which, in concurrence with other causes, carried the charge of poor-rate in I78O to 1,774,000/. The peace of 1783, though favourable in tlie main, was not unaccom})anied by the evils of transition. Our protluctive industry partook at first of the discouragement excited In the loss of oyr colonies ; and though it soon exhibited Sir F. Eden on the State of the Poor. 190 Our Poor Law System; symptoms of vigour, and even of prosperity, the price of bread was kept up by the incHtterent har- vests of 17 but for an increase of expcnce in their maintenance, in that of 13 to 7 ; the two together forming, when com- pared to the return of 1764, a sum (^4 to 7) more than triple the responsibility of that year. Is it then matter of surprize, that 5,000,000/. should go no further in its discharge in 1814, than 1,500,000/. in the beginning of the reign of George III. Wages paid by Poor Rate. — It is a great, tliough very common error, to account poor-rate a hondjide tax, an actual sacrifice to its apparent extent But the leading rule of our system, particularly in the west of England, is, to afford relief to tlie lower orders on a conjunct calculation of the price of bread, arid the number of children in a family. An o 4 ^00 Poor Halt considered as a Tad'. allowance made on this plan represents less the de- gree of distress prevalent in the country, than the difference between the market price of provisions, and the existing rate of wages ; a rate, perhaps, transmitted with little variation from years of greater cheapness. It is thus that our poor-law system was rendered, during the late wars, an ex- pedient for preventing a rise of ivages, as far at least as regarded country labour, on the avowed ground, that wages once raised cannot be reduced without the greatest difficulty. What, it may be asked, was the effect of the war on the price of labour generally ? To increase the demand, and to place a number of the lower orders in towns, whether manufacturers or me- chanics, in a better situation tlian before, notwith- standing the rise in provisions. In no department did it render the demand greater than in agricul- ture, and in none did the wages of the labourer experience a greater rise in Scotland ; but in Eng- land, at least in most parts of England, from the effects of an artificial system, the case was very different. Wages were subjected to regulation ; and their rise, though considerable, being inade- quate to the rise of corn, the unavoidable result w^as a great increase of poor-rate. It is only thus that we find it possible to explain the remarkable anomaly, that in a period when farming was flou- rishing beyond example, the number of agricul- tural paupers should increase in a proportion fully equal to that of our trading and manufacturing districts. This was exemplified in Bedfordshire and Herefordshire, the two counties which em- ploy the largest proportion of their inhabitants in agriculture. Poor Rale considered as a Tad\ 201 Extract from the Report on the Poor Laws, 1817, p. 8, Expended on Paupers in 1776. Average expen- diture of 1783, 84, 85, £16,728 20,977 In 1803. In 1815. Herefordshire Bedfordshire £10,.592 16,663 £48,067 38,070 £59,256 50,371 There is thus no doubt, tliat a part of the poor- rate ought to be deducted from our estimate of it as a tax, and considered in the Hght of an equivalent for wages. If it be asked, what proportion should thus be deducted, we must answer, by admitting, that the enquiry is complicated, involving a refer- ence to the rate of wages in Scotland and the counties in the north of England, where poor-rate is comparatively light. The proportion, besides, must differ materially under different circum- stances, in consequence of the greater or less de- mand for labour. In this uncertainty, and in the absence of tlie necessary documents, we are con- fined to a conjectural estimate ; but if a third of our poor-rate is to be thus accounted for, we ex- clude the idea of a tax or sacrifice to the extent of nearly :2,000,0()0/. annually, during the last ten years. Mode of Assessment. — Amidst the various sug- gestions entertained during the agricultural di.s- tress of LSlG) was that of rendering the burden of poor-rate national, instead of parochial ; of paying it out of a general, instead of a local fund. This proposition is noticed here, merely to show its ab- solute inexpediency. Under our ])resent system, it could be accompanied by no adc(iuate checks, — by no satisfactory rule lor restricting either the 202 Poor Rate considered as a Tax. number or the allowance of the pensioners, fn Scotland, in France, in short, in all countries with which we are acquainted, the relief" of the poor is defrayed by a local contribution. But whiJe we determine to keep up the distinction of parishes and townships, and to obhge each to provide for its poor, there apj)ear to be strong reasons for a change that would be perfectly compatible with the maintenance of local distinction : we mean new-modelling the assessment of property. At present the whole falls on land and houses ; but would not, we may ask, the income of the inhabi- tants of the parish generally, returned on a plan somewhat similar to that of the property tax, form a much more equitable basis of repartition ; parti- cularly since the landed interest appear to have lost their principal stay — the counterpoise af- forded by the corn laws. The yearly rental of the land and houses of England and Wales, on which poor-rate was collected in 1803, was not (Clarkson on Pau- perism) returned at more than £24',00O,00O The latter years of the war exhibited both a large increase of rental and a more correct return, the amount assessed being (Report on the Poor Laws, 1817) not less than 51,898,000 But increase of demand followed, or rather ac- companied, increase of means : the rate, 3*. T^cf. in the pound in 1803, was not below Si. 4rf. on the far larger sum assessed in the years 1812, 1813, 1814-. At present, whatever be the offi- cial allotment, the burden bears an equal pro- portion to our resources, because, since the fall of corn, the rental of land and houses in England and Wales can hardly exceed . . . •i5,000,000 In 1805, the sum collected for the use of the poor was below 4,000,000/. ; and if, in some years Our Poor Law System^ S^c. ^3 hence, it be reduced, as we anticipate, (see Appen- dix to tlie chapter on Agriculture, p. [35]) to a sum (4,. 500,000/.) not greatly exceeding that amount, it would form a charge of from two shillings in the pound on the actual rent of our land and houses, (4,5,000,000/.) ; but, if levied on the in- come of ' tlie parishioners generally, 4,500,000/. would form a rate of less than one shilling in the pound. Did Increase qf Wages and Poor-rate counter- balance the Enhancement of Provisions ? — It would, we believe, be a mistake, to imagine that the in- crease of wages and parochial aid dining the war, counterbalanced to the country labourer the en- hancement of produce, and had the effect of ren- dering his situation more comfortable than in the preceding period. A very different conclusion is suggested by the following calculation made by Mr. Barton, who, in his pamphlet on the '• State of the Labouring Classes," pubhshed in I8I7, shows, that whatever may have been the case in towns, wages in the country, estimated by their power of procuring subsistence, experienced a considerable diminution in the sixty years between I76O and 1820. Statement shoxving the Proportion of the Wages of the Country Labourer to the Price qf Com. Periods. Weekly Pny. Wheat per , Wages in Pints Quarter. of Wheat. 174-2 to 1752 1761 to 1770 1780 to 1790 1795 to 1799 1800 to 1808 s. d. 6 7 6 8 9 11 s. d. 30 42 6 51 2 70 8 86 8 102 90 80 65 60 204 Old- Poor Law Sj/slem ; Happily the other articles of the expenditure of the lower orders, in particular clothing, were en- hanced in a far less degree than bread. Without that advantage, their situation, favourable as was the period to our agriculture, would have been deteriorated, as will at once appear by a reference (see Appendix) to the table of the constituents of family expence in the middle and lower classes. We there find, that while provisions of home growth form hardly 30 per cent, of the disburse of the middle classes, they amount to 50 per cent, of the more rigorously calculated out-lay of the lower orders. A still more serious confirmation of the import- ance of the price of corn to the poor, will be found in another short extract from Mr. Barton's tables. Inefficacy in point of relief has seldom been urged against our poor-law system, but the following return shows that it is far from being completely successful in preventing an increase of suffering, and even increase of mortality, among the poor and their children, in times of scarcity. The return comprises seven manufacturing dis- tricts in England, distinct from each other. Years. Average Price of Wheat per Quarter. Deaths. 1801. 1804. 1807. 1810. ,v. d. 118 3 60 1 73 3 106 2 55y965 44,794 48,108 54.864 It was thus equally desirable, on grounds of lui- manity and of policy, that the price of provisions should experience a reduction. It was in 18^20 its Effect on the Condition oj'tlie Lower Orders. 205 that this took place on a large scale ; and the fall of wages, though considerable, being still far from proportioned to it, the condition of the lower orders, at least of all who can find employment, has experienced a favourable change, ^^'ere we in possession of returns to a late date, Mr. Barton's parallel of weekly pay and price of wheat, given in our preceding page, might be continued to the present year, and would exhibit an approximation to the wages of the middle of last century ; in some measure in the smallness of tlie money amount, more in its efficiency in the purchase of provisions. But without such a return, enough appears to establish the important fact, that notwithstanding the relief afforded by an increase of poor-rate, the condition of the labouring classes experiences a veiy unfavourable change on the enhancement of corn ; while, in return, it is greatly to their advan- tage, that the provisions sliould fall, and rates be reduced. Need we then wonder, tliat in 1810 the framers of the Bullion Ue})ort should have consi- dered the situation of the country labourer dete- riorated by a continuance of high j)rices, notwith- standing the increase of parochial aid ; or, that after 18^20, ministers shouhl have accounted the })ul)hc tranquillity so firmly secured, as to admit of a large reduction in our army. Objections to our Poor Lan's. — We come next to the objections urged against our ])()()r-laws, \ iz. that tliey induce the labouring class to contract premature marriages, depress their circumstances by an undue increase of their numbers, and ac- custom them to a state of humiliating dependance. Admitting that these charges are considerably ex- g06 Our Poor Law Sijtem ; aggeratecl, (since the poor increase their numberR ahnost as quickly in Scotland, wliere there is so little ])arochiji] aid,) a sufficient ])roof()f the radical defects or absurd misapplication of our system is afforded by the fact, that aid, originally restricted to the aged and infirm, should be extended to more than a twelfth part of our })opulation ; for the per- sons receiving parish relief in England and Wales, amount, without reckoning children, to nearly a million. But, unluckily, we cannot speak with ap- probation of the course as yet pursued, in regard to the poor in almost any other country. That which is followed in Scotland is charged with a degree of indifference to their sufferings in dear seasons; a time when (Evidence of P. Milne, Esq. M. P., before the Poor Law Committee) necessity prompts labourers to undertake taskwork at reduced rates, and frequently to exceed their strength. A similar feeling must have occurred to most of our country- men who have lived in France, or other countries of the Continent, and witnessed the habitual pri\a- tions of even the sober and industrious, among those of the lower orders who happen to have fa- milies. Hence, a reluctance on the part of many benevolent minds to relinquish our poor-law sys- tem, defective as it is, or to forego the hope of solving that most interesting problem, the means of lessening to them the difficulty of rearing a family. Reduction ofTcuces on the Necessaries of Life. — To attain this humane object, the . better plan, we believe, is to abandon our attachment to system, and to relinquish, as soon as in our power, whatever is artificial in our regulations. No contrivance, how- ever ingenious, no combination, however plausible, its Effect on the Condition of the Jjoxver Order's. 207 can be so advantageous as the plain rule of enabling the poor to provide for themselves. Much has been lately done to this effect, by the reduction of the duties on salt and leather : let our grand object be, the removal of the remaining obstacles, whether existing in the shape of taxes on the necessaries of life, or of restrictions on employment, such, for example, as arise from our duties on coals carried coastwise or by canal. A tax on a necessary of life has, in regard to the poor, the same operation as the enhancement of corn : wages do not become proportionally aug- mented, and a new pressure falls on those who are least able to bear it. The great addition to the tax on leather imposed in 1813, was, doubtless, for a time, an absolute sacrifice on the part of the lower orders. That they are indemnified, or partly in- demnified, in the rate of wages, at times when their services are in demand, we do not deny ; but the equivalent is uncertain, the sacrifice immediate and unavoidable. From this painful consideration, we turn to the consolatory reflection, that *' any reduction of the taxes on the necessaries of life, may, with con- fidence, be considered the foreruinier of a reduc- tion of poor-rate." The more the charges on the necessaries of life, in this country, are approxi- mated to those of the Continent, the more we perform towards confirming the superiority of our manufacturers ; resting the su})port of our lower orders on the basis of the wide xvorldy instead of Kngtand, and substituting for an eleemosynary grant, the earnings of independent labour. Is it necessary that we should specify the advantages with which our countrymen enter on the field of competition with their continental neighbours :-* ^208 Our I'oor Laxi' Si/slem ; Tliey have tfi^ aid of" productive mines, of'extensive water cominunication, of a minute subdivision of labour, of habits formed during successive ages to industrious pursuits. These grounds of superiority, imperfectly perceived by P^ngUslimen who have remained at home, are amply appreciated by all who have witnessed tlie slow progress, the deficient resources, the general backwardness of most coun- tries on the Continent. But while the benefit arising from this reduction is admitted, the pi'acticability of carrying it to any considerable extent may be questioned by those who look to the magnitude of the wants of govern- ment. These persons, however, would soon modify their objections, and extend their hopes, were they to give due attention to a few fundamental truths ; such as, '* that the proceeds of a tax by no means decrease in proportion to the reduction of its rate ;'* and " that new and unforeseen resources are opened by the extended activity consequent on such reduction." Whenever circumstances shall admit of giving a complete latitude to the course we recommend, the public may safely take for granted, that England will have, if not fewer pau- pers, at least few^er real sufferers from po\erty than any country in Europe. Could this highly desirable result be attained, our upper classes would find their duties towards the poor greatly simplified. They would be justi- fied in confining their interference and aid to cases of urgency ; such as an inclement season, a great and general transition like that from war to peace, or from peace to war ; or, finally, to a time when, as is at present the case of the lace-manu- facturers on the Continent, a midtitude of persons, habituated to work of a particular kind only, find its Effect on the Condition of the Loiver Orders. ^201) their earnings suddenly reduced by the introduc- tion of machinery. Assistance tluis conferred would be substantial charity ; exempt in its conse- quences from the hazard and mischief attendant on our poor-law system, and, on that account, doubly gratifying to benevolent minds — to those who, eager to bestow, are M'ithheld only by a doubt of their donations producing a beneficial residt. ^10 CHAP. VII. PopuIatio7i. Few subjects in the range of political science have given rise to more opposite theories than that of Population. It is now fully a century and a half since our venerable countryman, Judge Hale, taking doubtless for granted, like a number of rea- soners in a more advanced age, that the quantity of food in a country is limited by physical causes, declared gravely from the bench, that " the more populous we are, the poorer we are.'* And the present age has witnessed the promulgation of a doctrine of kindred import, though somewhat more elaborately expressed, viz. " that population is imperatively limited by subsistence." This opinion, proceeding from a writer of extensive re- search and professorial rank, has been very gene- rally received, not only in England, but in the country of Dr. Smith ; a quarter where political economy forming more particularly a study, a rigid scrutiny of its merits might naturally have been expected. Of the various answers to Mr. Malthus, the most substantial in argument, though far from the most attractive in style, is the work entitled the ** Happiness of States," pubhshed in 1815, by Mr. S. Gray ; a work of which the leading prin- ciples were, some time after, developed in a more Population J S;c. 211 condensed and popular form.* Far from coin- ciding with the uncomfortable doctrine, that in- crease of numbers leads to increase of poverty, Mr. G. maintains, that augmented population forms the basis of individual as well as of national wealth. He has been, on the whole, fortunate in the events that have followed the publication of his opinion, the present abundance of subsistence being parti- cularly calculated to relieve the alarm of those who considered our numbers likely to outrun our means of support. Still the public mind is far from being completely satisfied in regard to the benefit arising from augmented population : the reasoning in its favour is not yet clear and con- vincing; while the occasional want of work among our lower orders is attributed by many to a popu- lation increasing too rapidly for employment, if not for subsistence. In this view of the subject, we are far from joining, and proceed to investigate it at some length, in the hope of finding not only a confirmation of the consdlotary and cheering doctrine of Mr. Gray, but of being enabled to found on it a practical measure ; to discover in the increase of our numbers, the means of lessen- ing our financial pressure. Our principal topics of enquiry shall be — The condition of society in an early age ; The change effected by increase of ])0})ulation ; How far subsistence is limited by physical causes; The state of Europe in regard to increase of numbers and wealth. • In two lesser works, entitled, respectively, " All Classes productive of National Wealth," 8vo. 1S17 ; "Gray v. Malthas, the Principles of Population ami Protluction Investigated," 8vo. 1818. ■> o 0]« SECTIOX I. Increase of Population. Penury of an early Age. — The predilection with which the popular writers of almost every country have contemplated a primitive age, and the colour- ing cast over it by romantic imaginations, have had the effect of misleading the majority of readers, and rendering them strangers to the privations ex- perienced by their ancestors. These, however, were multiform and grievous ; such, in short, as to form a most striking contrast to the comfort of an advanced state of society ; and if in England we are happily unable to find an existing likeness to a rude age, the sister island will amply supply it. The Irish peasant, occupying a hovel without furniture, and carrying on his cultivation with wretched implements, may convey to us an idea of the state of England five or six centuries ago, as well as of the present state of a great part of the east of Europe, of Poland, Russia, Hungary, and tlie inland provinces of Turkey. The improve- ment of these countries at present, appears to an English traveller extremely slow ; but, aided as it is by the introduction of settlers from Germany and other parts, it is, of course, far less tardy than the advancement of Euro})e in the Gothic ages, when all were equally backward. In those days, a few cottages formed a hamlet, and many cen- turies elapsed ere the hamlet became a village. In 15 Increase of Population. SJ13 point of property, extremes predominated : on the one side was tlie lord, on the other his vassals ; while the middle class were few in number, and uncomfortable in circumstances. Fjffect of increasing Populadon. — What a different aspect of society is exhibited after a progress m the useful arts, accompanied as it is by the rise of towns and general mcrease of population ! If we compare sucli countries as Russia, Pohuid, Hungary, or the Highlands of Scotland, witli the more tiiickly- peopled districts of the Continent, such as the provinces of Holland, Zealand, Flanders, Nor- mandy, or, on our own side of the Channel, with such counties as Lancashire, Warwickshire, the West Riding of York (to say nothing of Middle- sex), we find a surprising difference in the number and comfort of the middle class. A return of an- nual income, from the first-mentioned countries, would exhibit a few princely fortunes, with a long succession of names below the limit of taxation : in the otiier, it would show a mmiber of gradations ]ising above each other in a manner almost imper- ceptible. How different is the England of the present age, from the Enghuul of feudal times, when we could not (see the Appendix, j). [7''5].) boast twenty towns of 3,000 inhabitants each, and when the Commons or middle class were too unim])()rt- ant to hold a share in the representation, until brought forward by the crown as a counterpoise to the aristocracy. , Gradual Transition J'rom Penurij to C\nnJort. — In what manner does the transition from penury to comfort, in general take place? If not ahogether caused by density of jjopulation, it must be al- V S ^21^ Population: — lowctl to have very close connexion with it; the con- junction of individuals in villages and towns being productive of a degree of accommodation, comfort, and finally, of refinement, which would be alto- gether beyond their reach in an insulated position. In these assemblages the acqidsition of one comfort creates a desire for another, until society eventually attains the high state of polish Avhich we at present witness in several countries of Europe. All this, says Mr. Gray, leads the consumer to make fresh demands on the producer ; demands reciprocated by the latter on the former, in a different line of business. Hence, the dependence of one class on another ; hence, the prosperity caused to agricul- ture by the success of trade, and to trade by the success of agriculture. It is of no great conse- quence to our argument, whether these wants are of first or of second necessity, that which is deemed a superfluity in one country, being often accounted no more than a comfort, a requisite in another. What, it may be asked, is the criterion of the difference in wealth and general improvement be- tween different countries ? The relative density, not of population generally, but oi town population. This is apparent in almost every link in the chain of European civilization, Holland having in the seventeenth century taken the lead of England, exactly as England at present takes the lead of France ; France of most parts of Germany, and Germany of Spain and Poland. The distinc- tion of town population from population gene- rally, is important, for were the same advantage to belong to districts strictly rural, Ireland would claim an equal rank with England, and Flanders take precedence of Holland. It is in towns only that we reap the advantage of collective over Its Subsistence limited by Physical Causes. 0,15 scattered population ; — an advantage consisting in extensive markets ; a minute subdivision of employment ; the greater dispatch and finish of workmanship, and a supply of occupation to indi- duals of every age and every degree of capacity. Nexo Settlers. — It is but too common among unthinking persons to consider new-comers as un- profitable intruders, — as dealers, not customers, — as sellers, not buyers. This, however, is but a superfcial view, a first impression, for there is very little reason to doubt that in one way or an- other these persons will disburse in proportion to their earnings. When it happens that they or any other part of the community do not make such disburse, the only source of detriment to the public is the practice (now very rare) of hoard- ing ; for money saved and lent at interest becomes of service to the community, increasing the capital of the country, and lowering, or contributing to lower, the premium paid for its use. We may safely take for granted, that much public advan- tage arises from the arrival of new settlers, whether manufacturers, such as England and Prussia ac- quired from France on the repeal oi' the edict of Nantes, or agriculturists, such as Canada and the United States are now receiving fi:om us. Population, however, is generally augmented less by settlers from a distance, than by a local increase ; by an excess of births over deaths : a mode, which, very different from the easy acqui- sition of foreigners of mature age, implies a long and often a heavy charge, until the ^outli ol' cither sex acquire the strength or knowledge requisite to their support; requisite, in tlie language of the p 1. '216 Population : — economist, to constitute tliem " producers as well as consumers.*' Though in such a case the acqui- sition of new meml)crs is mucli more dearly pur- chased, the effect in a statistical sense is the same as in the case of arrivals from abroad. Is the amount of Subsistence limited hij Physical Causes? — We now approach the much-disputed point of the physical limits to increase of popu- lation ; to the question, whether it is imperiously limited by subsistence, or possesses the pow^r of augmenting subsistence in proportion to its own increase. The well-known argument of Mr. Mal- thus is, that population, if unchecked, would proceed in a geometrical ratio (1, ^, 4, 8, If), 32, &c.), while the supply of food cannot, he thinks, be brought, by the greatest efforts of human skill and industry, to increase otherwise than in the arithmetical ratio of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, &c. This position he illustrates by a reference to the United States of America ; a coinitry where the abundance of food is so great as to admit of the inhabitants doubling their number each succeeding generation, the 3,000,000 of 1775 having become 6,000,000 in 1800, with a probability of increasing to 12,000,000 in 1825, and so on progressively. That, as far as regards physical considerations, there is both an ability and a tendency in mankind to double their numbers in every generation, we readily admit ; also, that wherever sucli redupli- cation does not take place, the causes are to be sought in checks, such as the poverty that deters from marriage, the occurrence of pestilential dis- ease, or some other preventive of the increase of numbers. So far we agree with Mr. Malthus ; but in regard to his second proposition, the causes that 75 Subsistence limited by Vhysical Causes ? -^ly limit the increase of food, we must observe that the subject has as yet been by no means satisfac- torily ilhistrated, tlie attention of the different writers on the subject, whether liimself^ Mr. Ri- cardo, or others, iiaving been fixed too nnich on the necessity of having additional land to afford the produce required, and too little on the increase derived from bestowing additional labour on the same soil. What wxm'c the circumstances of the period when Mr. Malthus' book was composed? It was a period of war, of deficient croj)s, of continued enhancement of agricultural produce ; and the author, like the public at large, was necessarily unacquainted with our power of augmenting the supply, a powder so remarkably displayed since our seasons have become more favourable, and peace has restored to agriculture a sufficiency of labourers. Average Increase of Population. — In attempting a com})utation of the average increase of our mun- bers, we begin by making an exce})tion of the United States, peculiar as are the advantages pos- sessed by that country. They consist in a territory of vast extent ; a river navigation of great im- portance ; a people enjoying unrestricted inter- course with the civilized world, and closely con- nected in language and habits with the most commercial and colonizing country of Euro])e. Such an example is necessarily rare, and ought to be considered an extreme case : a more satisfactory result as to the average increase of })oj)ulation would be obtained from a combination of cases, among which, assuming the United States as the example of the most rapid augmentation, we may take, as the second, England, in which, under circumstances more favourable than on the C'on- « 1 8 Population : — tincnt of Europe, but less so than on tlie other side of'tlie Atlantic, population has doubled within the last century, and bids fair to double again in sixty or seventy years. As a farther exanij)le, we may take France, where, though the records are far from accurate, the doubling of the population has as yet required a term of from 100 to 120 years. Other countries exhibit a greater or less degree of slowness in the ratio of increase, and as these returns apply to them when exempt from the visitation of war, pestilence, or any violent check to increase of numbers, Mr. Gray's inference is, that the average furnished by the whole may be assumed as indicative of the natural progress of population. After thus endeavouring to establish the natural ratio of increase, Mr. Gray proceeds to argue that such increase is no farther limited by the difficulty of obtaining food, than by the difficulty of obtain- ing clothing or lodging, because the supply of food, though apparently restricted by a physical cause, is, on a closer examination, found to depend on the amount of capital and labour applied to raising it. In arguing this very interesting question, Mr. Gray and the other opponents of Mr. Malthus, woidd do well to guard against the charge of over- confidence, and to begin by making a distinct ad- mission of the difficulty of raising a family, a task which to the middle classes is one of laboiu" and anxiety ; to the lower, of toil, privation, and often of distress. Of this heavy burden, what portion is to be ascribed to the charge of food ? In the mid- dle classes, food forms (see Appendix, p. [11].) be- tween SO and 40 per cent, of the whole expence of a family ; but in the lower above 50 per cent., con- stituting thus, the grand article of charge in that 13 Is Subsistence limited by Physical Caitses ? '210 class in which the pressure of a family is most severely felt. After this precautionary statement, we may safely allow Mr. Gray and his followers to give a latitude to their inferences, comprehensive as they are, viz. : — That the quantity of subsistence in the world may be augmented in the same manner, and by the same means, as the quantity of our clothing, or the size of our dwellings ; and, That an addition to our numbers implies no diminution of individual income or property. Such assertions would have appeared not a little extraordinary during the greatest part of the war, when a continued insufficiency in our agricultural produce favoured so strongly the negative doctrine of Mr. Malthus : they would have been received also with no small surprise during I8I7 and 1818, when a scarcity of provisions, a general irregu- larity in the state of our productive industry, concurred to produce apprehension in regard to our increasing numbers. But a different lesson has since been taught us: we have now evidence that numbers, increased greatly beyond anticipation, may draw their subsistence from the same terri- torial surface ; that the amount of produce may be greatly augmented without bringing new soil into cultivation. A similar result from a similar cause is at present exhibited on the Continent of Europe. Comparison of the present ivith former Periods.^ How far does the preceding opinion appear to be confirmed by a general retrospect to the past? During the twenty years that elapsed between 169*2 and 1712, the average price of wheat (about \'U. per quarter,) had been such as to aflbrd, in ^20 Population : — these days of low rent and cheap labour, an ample inducement to the extension of tillage. It was consequently considered as having reached its tenni?ius, and no idea was entertained of the prac- ticability of any considerable addition to our pro- duce. The result, however, ])roved very different, for though during the half century that followed the treaty of Utrecht, our population received (see Preliminary Observations on the Po])ulation Return of 18'^!, p. 29.) an augmentation, including Ireland, of fully 3,000,000, the increase of our agricultural produce was such as more than counterbalanced that new demand. This was apparent from the aver- age price of wheat, which during that long period did not exceed 35s. the quarter. — Were it true that the acquisition of subsistence becomes more dif- ficult as our numbers increase, we should naturally expect to find the greatest abundance in a remote ao-e ; in times when the number of consumers was small, relatively to the extent of territory. But if we look back to the earliest periods of authentic history, to the ages \vhen Greece and Italy were most thinly peopled, we find neighbouring tribes maintaining sanguinary struggles with each other, the motive of which, as far as regarded the lower orders, was the hope of acquiring additional ter- ritory, and increased means of subsistence. It is thus that we are to explain the obstinate warfare for small but fertile districts, such as the plain of Thyria, the plain of Tanagra, the Colles Tuscu- lani ;. — to say nothing of contests, in a record of higher authority, for the valleys of Palestine, or the banks of the Jordan. Had siibsistence been abundant in these days, the inhabitants of the towns of Greece would have shown less eagerness in emigrating to new colonies ; while at Rome, Is Siibs'istencc I'lmitcd hi/ P/n/sica/ Causes ? oo\ the demand of an Agrarian law would have been a less powerful le\er in the hand of deniagonues. But to confine our examination to our own country, and to times comparatively recent, how diflerent is the present situation of our lower orders from that of their forefathers luider Henry A'^III., or under our admired Elizabeth, when, without any disposition to sexerity on the part of the sovereign or her ministers, the number of capital punishments (Speech of Mr. Fowel Buxton on our criminal code, May, 18'21), averaged no less than five hun- dred annually ! Various causes, in particular the ■want of education, must have contributed to this unfortunate prevalence of oflfences ; but can any be supposed to have operated so largely on the part of the commonalty, as the difficulty of ob- taining subsistence, although in that age our popu- lation did not exceed a third of its present number? But what, it may be asked, was the cause of this difficulty, — of the sup])ly of subsistence being so scanty, when the number of consumers was so small? Of this problem the solution is to be sought in the unproductiveness of even the fairest tracts so long as they remain in a state of nature. Whatever be the serenity of the climate or the richness of the soil, they continue unavailing to any useful purpose, until the a])plication of labour. By labour only can over-luxuriance be corrected, the forest cleared, a superabundance of watei- removed from one spot, a deficiency of it supplied in another. It is to the performance of tasks Hke these, the most acceptable of any in an early age, that we trace the honours so liberally bestowed '\\\ ancient mythology, — tlie apotheosis of the warrior who drained the Lcrn;ean marsh, and combati-d 222 Popvlalioji : — the savage occupants ol" the woods. But we arc under no necessity of dwelhng on an age of tra^ dition, on a scene embelhslied hy fiction : if we turn to plain reahty, — to the times in which we hve, and to a people noted for their adherence to the pursuit of substantial profit ; ifi in short, we fix our attention on the western states of America, or on Upper Canada, we shall find an example abundantly convincing of the unproductiveness of" the finest tracts until improved by labour and capital. It would be easy to multiply illustrations from history, but as our limits hardly admit of detail, we extract from one of the works already men- tioned (Gray versus Malthus), a summary of the leading ideas in the opposite systems of population. Mr, Malthus' s leading Ideas. Mr. Grays leading Ideas. The increase of population has The increase of population a tendency to overstock, and tends to increase the average to lessen the average amount amount of employment to of employment to indivi- individuals, duals. The increase of population has The increase of population has a natural tendency to pro- a tendency to increase mote poverty. wealth, not collectively only, but individually. From the conclusions of Mr. Malthus we dissent almost entirely ; to those of Mr. Gray, we would suggest the following modification : Increase of population, when acco77ipa?iied hy improvement in agriculture^ manufacture, and the useful arts generally^ has a tendency to augment both the Average amount of employment ; and Our wealth, not collectively only, but individually. Is Subsistence limited by Physical Causes ? 223 Mr. Mai thus. Mr. Gray. The amount of subsistence The amount of population re- regulates the amount of gulates the amount of sub- population, sistencc, in the same way as it regulates the supply of clothing and housing, be- cause with the exception of occasional famines, the quan- tity of subsistence raised depends on the amount of labour bestowed on it. Population has a natural tend- Population has a tendency to ency to increase faster than increase, but this increase subsistence. carries in itself the power of supplying its wants. Here, also, we are desirous to introduce a re- ference to the progress of improvement, since, although the application of labour on the part of an increasing and iuiim})roving society, like the peasantry of Ireland and Brittany, augment the quantity of the mere necessaries of life, the hazard of famine can be prevented only by improvement in agriculture, or in those arts of which the pro- ducts enable a people to purchase subsistence from their nciglibours. The early marriages of the Irish without the certainty of wages, or a stock of implements and furniture, are productive of incalculable suffering. That the supply of food may be extended, by labour and capital, in the same manner as the su])- ply of manufactures and buildings, we readily ad- mit ; but, as in the case of four-htths of mankind, food forms by fiir the greatest article of cliarge, and is, consequently, the most difficult of acqui- sition, we are fully prepared to excuse tliose who, in their writings, have over- rated the lal)our ol' procuring it. From the unquahfied, imd some- times confident tone of Mr. Crray, an inhabitant o) 0^21, PopuldUuii : — Canada or tlie United States mi^lit fiill into the i^rievous miscalculation, that to procure food for a faniily in Europe, was a task of no greater diffi- culty than in his own country, where a grant of* land may be had on such easy terms. Progressive Increase of Population in Europe. Tiie arguments in the preceding table are of ge- neral application, referring to the state of mankind in every age and country. To give the question a more specific form, we shall now introduce a few statistical results, and explain in what manner are effected tliose improvements in agriculture and the useful arts, which we consider as conferring the ability to support an augmented population. Effects of Soil and Climate. — Fertility of soil is too directly conducive to increase of numbers, to require illustration ; but in point of climate, we cannot avoid remarking that the superiority of one part of Europe over another, is, as far at least as regards the productive pow er of the soil, much less than is commonly imagined. The great art of the husbandman consists in adapting the object of cul- ture to the peculiarity of the temperature. In various parts of Scotland, accounted half a century ago unfit tor wheat culture, the progress of im- provement has led to raising that grain not only in abundance, but of a quality fit for the London market ; while in the boasted climate of the south of France, the season is often too dry for wheat, and the frequent failure of that crop seems to point out maize as a more appropriate object of tillage. In regard to potatoes, the culture of. which is so directly connected with density of population, the Causes of il^ Increase in Europe. ^25 warmest and finest climate of tlie Continent has no superiority over our own. It is tlius only, when in extremes, as in the bleak tracts of Russia, Sweden, and Norway, that climate has operated materially to restrict })roduce and population : the physical superiority of the south of Euro})e, whate\er may be its eventual eftect, has not, as yet, been such as to outweigh the political advantages of the north. Effect of Communication by Sea, Rivers, Canals, Roads. — The effect of prompt communication in promoting commercial intercourse is sufficiently ap])ai-ent, but its tendency to increase the popula- tion oi' towns may require some explanation. What, in the first place, are the advantages enjoyed by the inhabitants of towns over those of the country; by a collected over a scattereil population ? TJiey consist in a more ample field for sale or purchase ; a better division of employment ; greater dispatch and finish of workmanship ; — a more varied supply of occupation, so as to suit individuals of almost any degree of strength or capacity. Now these advantages, arising, in a large town, from concen- tration of numbers, may, in a great degree, be en- joyed by places comparatively small and distant from each other, when connected by rivers, canals, <)r a line of sea-coast. Such was the origin of the prosperity of Greece ; such, at present, is the cause that the maritime part of her population make in their contest with the Turks a figure not unworthy «f their ancestors. It is thus that the several towns of Holland, Zealand, and Flanders, have for many centuries nuiintained an active intercourse with each other ; that Paris is so closely connected with Rouen and Havre de Grace ; that Switzerland maintains by the Rhine an intercourse with Hol- Q i220 Population : — land ; and that in England, particularly since the multiplication of canals within the last seventy years, the conveyance of coal, iron, salt, and other bulky commodities, is so much facilitated. On the other hand, the want of such intercourse is, as we shall see presently, the principal cause of the backwardness of Spain, Poland, the south of Germany, and, in no inconsiderable degree, of France. Effect of the Protestant Religion. — The adop- tion of the reformed faith has been found conducive to the increase, not only of individual comfort, but of the population of tow^ns in the countries into which it has been introduced. Among its other effects, are a more general diffiision of education, and an exemption, in the case of the labouring classes, from the loss of time attendant on the end- less holydays of the catholic church. In agricul- ture, the operation of these advantages is less apparent, most countries sufficing wholly, or nearly, to their own consumption, while the insulated po- sition of the husbandman prevents, in a great measure, the benefit arising from competition and frequent personal conmiunication. But in manu- factures, particularly in those prepared for foreign sale, the case is very different ; the ease of tran- sporting them to a distant market, and of comparing their respective quality and price, opens a wide field of competition, and awards the preference to superior skill and ingenuity. Accordingly, though the catholics of Europe are, collectively, much more numerous than the protestants, the far larger share of exported merchandize proceeds from pro- testant countries, the labour of the !• lemings, the French, and the northern Italians, forming a feeble Causes of its Increase in Europe. 22? counterpoise to those of the Silesians, the Saxons, the Prussians, and, abo\ e all, of" our countrymen. In Ireland, linen weaving, the only great branch of manufacture, is almost wholly in the hands of protestants. We proceed to apply this reasoning to the pro- gress of population in Europe, avaiUng ourselves of the official returns which have been made in most countries in the course of the present age, and which supply the following abstract : — Inhabitants per square Mile. East Flanders - - - 55^ West Flanders .... 420 Holland (Province of) .... 362 Ireland ----- 237 England distinct from Wales - - 232 Austrian Italy, viz, the Milanese and the Ve- netian States - - - 219 The Netherlands, viz. the Dutch and Belgic Provinces, collectively ... 214 Italy - - - . 179 France - ... 150 The Austrian dominions - - - 112 The Prussian dominions - - 100 Denmark .... - 73 Poland .... - 60 Spain ..... 58 Turkey in Europe (conjectural) - - 50 I Sweden (distinct from Norway and Lapland) - 25 ' Russia in Europe - - - 23 Here are, indeed, some very remarkable diifer- ences in po})ulation, and to trace this diversity to its source, is uii object of no slight interest. f Flanders possesses, in a high degree, the main causes of dense ))opulation, fertility of soil, and ease of communication, having on the uortli the ,sea and the Scheldt, while the flatness of its sur- Q 2 228 I'opu/alion .• — face admits of easy intersection by canals. Acconl- inf^Iy, so early as the IStli century, when ])r()duc- tive industry was in its infancy in every jiart of Europe, except Pisa, Venice, Genoa, and a few other towns of Italy, Bruges was a phice of com- mercial eminence, a kind of centre for the inter- course of the north-west of Europe. In this it was succeeded by Antwerp and Amsterdam ; but though Flanders has long ceased to have much foreign trade, its population and manufacturing industry have not declined. The great articles of its produce are, corn, hemp, and flax ; of its ma- nufactures, linen, lace, leather, and, in later times, cotton. Of cities, it contains only two, Ghent and Bruges, and their conjunct population does not ex- ceed 9(),0()(). But it abounds in towns and vil- lages which are populous, though not noticed in history, and hardly in geography. Of the Dutch provinces, tha most remarkable for population, as for other characteristics, are Hol- land and Zealand. On the ground of fertility they have little claim, to density of numbers, the soil being, in general, ill adapted to tillage ; but in ease of water communication, they surpass every other part of Europe. The mouths of the Rhine, Maese, and Scheldt, aflbrd capacious inlets for foreign commerce, while the level surface of the territory admits of easy intersection by canals. These provinces possessed, consequently, consider- able population and trade before the l6th century, when their })rosperity was confirmed by the adop- tion of tlie protestant religion, and by the establish- ment, after a long struggle, of an independent government. How far does fertility of soil account for the in- crease of population in England ? Inferior to se- Causes of its Increase in Europe. ^29 veral tracts on tlie Continent, such as Flanders oi* the Milanese, but more fertile than the mountains of S])aui or the sandy levels of the north of Ger- many, the soil of England may be said to hold a medium, and to have a claim to rank with the average of the French and Austrian territory. This degree of fertility would have determined a popu- lation in the })resent age of perhaps 150 to the square mile : the additional inunber is, as far as regards phijsical causes, to be attributed to our in- sular position, and the productiveness of our mines, particularly of coal ; advantages which lead so directly to the increase of our manufacturers, sea- men, and traders. In ease of inland navigation, England is second only to the Dutch provinces. Inland Countries : Austria a?id Prussia. — From these examples of maritime prosperity, we pass to inland countries, and begin by the dominions of Austria, which, with a slight exception, are at a distance from the sea, traversed by few navigable rivers, and by hardly any canals. Though equal to France or England in fertility, the communi- cation between the different pi'ovinces is difficult, the ])rogress of improvement extremely slow, ma- initactures backward, and the town population very limited. Prussia, in like manner, has few harbours or navigable rivers, indifferent roads, and canals that are only in their infancy: the majoritv of her subjects enjoy the atlvantage of the protestant reli- gion, and of an education less imperfect than that of their southern neiglfoours ; but her j)()piilati()n is thin, in conse([uence of a great part of her ter- ritory being sandy or marshy. A still stronger example of the disadvantage of an inland position is afforded by Poland. That Q 3 S.'JO Population : — country, without possessing all the fertility vul- garly ascribed to those which export corn, is not naturally below the average productiveness of Eu- rope. Its climate, if in winter it ))artake of the rigour of Russia, is in summer favoural)le to corn culture, and the great impediment to the increase of its produce is not a mountainous surface, but a cause more within the remedying power of indus- try — extensive marshes. Still, its town population is scanty and wretched, the causes of which, in a political sense, are, long continued niisgovernment, a bigotted creed, the almost total neglect of edu- cation ; in a physical, the difficulty of transporting commodities, the extent of sea-coast being small, the roads proverbially wretched, and the access to the interior by the Vistula, circuitous, and too confined for so large a tract of country. France. — Between these extremes, our ancient rival forms a medium, possessing a considerable ex- tent of coast, but labouring also under the disadvan- tage of an inland territory, square in its form, slightly penetrated by navigable rivers, having, as yet, very few canals, and roads good only in particular di- rections. Compared to the Austrian or Prussian states, France is an improved country, but the case is far otherwise when put in competition with the Netherlands or England. Superior to our island in climate, and equal to it in soil, she is greatly in- ferior in density of population, and still more in the average income of individuals. Of her population, two-thirds (above twenty millions) live in the coun- try, and her peasantry partake, in many provinces, of the poverty of those of Ireland. In the size of her towns, this great kingdom, so long the dread of our forefathers, and of Europe, has, in the last and present age, been altogether surpassed by Causes of its Increase in Europe. 231 England and Scotland; for though our island boast only half her population, the distribution of it is made, in a manner, far more conducive to efficiency in a commercial and financial sense. This is, at once, apparent from a comparison of the twelve principal towns in each. Population Return o/^1821. ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND. FRANCE. London, Westminster, Soutlnvark, and the adjoining parishes - 1,225,694 Paris - - - 720,000 Glasgow with suburbs 147,043 Lyons . - 1 1 5,000 Edinburgh with Leith and their suburbs - 158,23.5 Marseilles . - 102,000 Manchester, with Sal- ford 133,788 Bordeaux - 92,000 Liverpool - 118,972 Rouen . 86,000 Birmingham with Aston 106,722 Nantes - 77,000 Bristol and suburbs 87,779 Lille - 60,000 Leeds and suburbs 83,796 Strasburg - 50,000 Plymouth, with Dock and suburbs 61,212 Toulouse - 50,000 Norwich - - - 50,288 Orleans . 42,000 NewcastleonTync,with Gateshead 46,948 Metz . 42,000 Portsmouth with Port- sea ... 45,648 Nimes - 40,000 Ireland. — In our enumeration of towns we have omitted those of Ireland, because the situation of that country is })eculiar. Possessing, in point of navigation, maritime and inland, advantages equal to those of England, her towns are comparatively small, her manufactures considerable in one pro- vince only. To what, then, is owing the remark- able density of her population ? To two causes, fertility of soil, and the habit on the part of the peasantry, of subsisting on a food, the pro- duce of which, on a given spot, is miicii larger tlian that of the wheat, the rye, or the oats, which, in other parts of Europe, form the basis of na- tional subsistence. Q 4 '23^2 Population : — Connection between its //<7///. — Few countries surpass Italy in natural ;ul\;uitages j in soil, in (•liniate, extent of sea coast, and, in her nortliern part, in the means of inland navigation. But a higotted creed has confirmed the indolence inspired by the climate, and her unfortunate division into petty states, has prevented measures for the advancement of her productive industry. Thougli more populous than France, her inhabitants have a smaller aver- age income : the want of a concentrated govern- ment may be considered the cause of lighter financial burdens, but the advantage is balanced or more than balanced by the loss of that rank among the states of Europe, to which this coun- try is entitled by her population and geographical position. Spain has a climate on the whole, favourable, but in respect to territorial surface, it is, after Switzerland, the most mountainous country in Europe. Having been all along deprived of the blessings of good government and enlightened religion, the physical obstacles to communication between one district and another, have been very little lessened by exertion on the part of the inhabitants ; the roads are few and indiHerent, while of canals there are hardly any. Her great extent of sea coast, ought, it may be thought, to have remedied these disadvantages, but the small number of her navigable rivers has confined this benefit to the outskirts of her territory, leaving the interior untraversed and almost unopened. Thus, Avith the exception of Catalonia, Biscay, and part of Andalusia, Spain exhibits all the backwardness of a country deprived of water communication; Portugal is more favourably circumstanced ; she has two great inlets from the ocean, the Tagus Increase and the Increase of IVealth. 'Zoo and Doiiro ; her towns are less thinly scattered, and without siirpassinii; S])ain in climate or soil, slie is enabled to pay a larger revenue in proportion to her population. Russia and the north of Sweden, form an ex- ample of" extreme thinness of" popuhition, conse- quent, partly on rigour of" climate, i)artiy also on difficulty of intercourse. Co7inection heticeen Increase of Numbers and In- crease of Wealth. — Having thus ex})lained the increase of popuhition in Europe, Me are, in the next place, to examine the circumstances con- nected with the increase oj' licallh. Qui- experience since the peace, unfortunate as it has been to particular classes of the commu- nity, has put beyond doubt one material 'point, we mean our ])ower of sul)sisting an increased po- pulation. Tlie case of England is that of Eiuope at large, and even anti-popuhitionists can Iiardlv apprehend that such abundance is tcm])orary, or tJiat the civilized world is at all in hazard from in- sufficiency of subsistence. Equally little can they deny that increase of national wealth, has, for a long time, accompanied increase of munbers. Such has evidently been the case in France, in Germany, in the countries along the Baltic, and, above all, among ourseKes. ]5ut while the facts are undoubted, the inteience that the increase of wealth is closely connected with increase of numbers, will not be so reatlily granted. From the adherents of Mr. Malthus, it is not to be looked for, nor do we expect it for some time from the majority of our ])ul)lic men. Their objections to it however will, we l)elie\e, be lessened by a qualification similar to what we have !234< Populalion : — Omncction between its already suggested, viz. that our arguments for *♦ an increase of wealth from increase of nujubers are urged only in regard to a society advancing in a knowledge of agriculture, manufacture, and the useful arts generally." After inserting this important condition, we may with confidence propose some interesting questions, such as '• whether, when the same portion of public burdens is distributed over a greater number of per- sons, the pressure on the individual is not neces- sarily lightened?" Our revenue arises chiefly from consumption : each individual bears his part, and the 50,000,000/, at present paid by somewhat less than 1.5,000,000 of inhabitants in Great Britain, will obviously give a smaller average per head when they shall come to be shared among a popu- lation of 16,000,000. Our next question is, "whe- ther the effect of augmented numbers, in adding to the revenue, has not been remarkably exemplified in the present age : whether it had not an impor- tant share in swelling the product of our taxes during the war, and in preventing their diminution since the peace ?" If these preliminary points are admitted, we may proceed to put the more general question, whether " when a greater popu- lation is maintained in equal comfort on the same territory, the wealth and power of the community are not increased?" This approaches so nearly to a self-evident proposition, that we shall not hesitate to take for granted, that as to national income and power, no doubt can be entertained of an increase attendant on the increase of our numbers. It re- mains that we investigate its etiects in another sense. Increase of Income to the Indhi dual. — Hasan augmented population a tendency to expand or Increase and the Increase of Wealth. 'iS5 contract tlie separate earnings of its members? The present may be termed tlie age of statistical returns, the first period in history in which the governments of the civilized part of the workl have called periodically for returns of population. It has also been an aera of great fluctuation in the property of individuals ; yet amidst all the com- plaints of losses arising at one time from the ex- penditure of war, at another from want of employ- ment or superabundance of produce, we have no- where seen it argued that the circumstances of our population have undergone deterioration from the increase of their numbers. Of this one main cause is, that the necessity of providing for a family is the strongest of all stimidants to the reniuiciation of indolent habits, to the productive employment of time and capital. What a contrast in the result of the labour of the parent who necessarily adheres to a uniform pursuit, and of him who, exempt from the calls of a family, is at liberty to pass his time in speculation, indecision, and change ! In nothing is the advantage of a mercantile conunu- nity, like England, Holland, or the United States of America, more conspicuous over most countries of the Continent of Euroj)e; where fanciful changes and visionary pursuits are so common, and where the upper classes, or, as they are styled, the noblesse, so frequently pass their lives without a definite object, and seek to escape trouble by aNoidiug \\\v responsibility of a family. Let us not, however, be understood as asserting that the increase of our population cannot be too rapid, or as making light oi" the pressure on the parents of a numerous family ; a pres.sure whicii in general implies the necessity of renouncing the gratifications of leisure, and ofnhnost " sacrifjciwg '2:H') J *()/)// /a //(>// : — Conncc/ion belwccn its cnjoynicMit (()r tlif means of living." That tliis is applicabk' to the middle as well as to the lower classes, we are fully convinced ; and if we do not dwell on it more largely, it is because we have already adverted to it, and our ])resent enquiry regards the effect of" increasing numbers in a sense strictly statistical. Mr, Gray, not content with stipulating for an e(iuality of circumstances to the rising generation, goes a step farther, it being one of the fundamental articles of his creed, that an increase in the num- bers of a nation or society, tends, not only to keep up, but to improve the income of its mem- bers : that the 80/. forming the average income of indi\idual workmen in one age, may, and, in fact, is likely to become SlUin the next; or to express it in a comprehensive form, that " the more varied the classes of a community, the more they con- duce to the welfare of each other," To this inter- esting and important conclusion we are ready to assent, provided the increase of income be con- sidered as dependent less on increase of numbers, than on the circumstances under which (see p. 9.9^2.') such increase takes place. Hoii: far exemplified in the State of Europe. — We proceed to put this doctrine to the test, by a reference to the returns of taxation and other public biu'dens, in different countries of Europe. These, we are aware, do not furnish an unexcep- tionable criterion of national wealth, as the pro- j)ortion of public burdens may differ from circum- stances imconnected with the state of })roductive industry, such as the greater or less participation of a particular country in war, since the adoption of the funding system. They form, however, the least defective basis, the nearest approximation to 232 - 3 2 165 - 2 15 214 - 1 10 150 - 1 4- 112 - 12 4. 100 - 13 4. 73 - 16 3 58 - 11 G 25 - 10 23 - 9 9 Increase and lite Jiiorasc uj' J Teal lit. ^SJ the truth hi the })ieseiit imperfect state of pubhe surveys ; for few countries liave been the object of an assessment so directly calculated to convey an estimate of national wealth, as the property-tax of England or \\\e fancier of France. I'opulatioii I'roportion of Public Burdsns per square ^lile. paid by eacli IndiviiUial. Englanddistinct from Scot-) ' " land and Wales - j England, Scotland, and \ Wales, collectively - j The Netherlands * France - - - The Austrian Empire The Prussian Dominions Denmark - - - Spain ... Sweden Russia in Europe The maritime provinces of Holland and Zea- land, are perhaps as heavily taxed as England, the charge of defence against the sea, added to the interest of a heavy debt, contracted during two centuries, rendering the total assessment probablv equal to our 31. ^.s'. per head. France exliil)its a medium in her taxes as in her population : while in our case, the increase of taxation since 179v? has been more than double the increase of our popu- lation, in France the proportion of the former lias outstripped that of the latter only by a fourth, or ^5 per cent. 8till the axerage payment ])er head is much greater in France than in the Austrian empire, a country fully ecpial to France in fer- tility, but more thinly peopled, because it is dexoid of the means of communication afibrded to France by a consideraI)Ie extent of coast. * The repartition of taxes is here very unequal, the Dutch provinces, particularly those of Holland and Zealand, paying nmch more than 1/. 10.?. a head, the Belgic considerably less. -es of a concentrated population? In the subtlivision of labour; in the power of making the exertions of nuniy con- cur to one object; in the means otgi\ing em- ployment, of some kind or other, to persons the most difierent in education and attainments, lu ))r()|)()rti()ii as employment becomes subdivided, the eflicieiicy ofihe individual is increased, and the same labour enables him to furnish commodities, superior, either in quantity or quality, generally in l)Oth. Iksides, an assemblage of numbers is highly favourable to those discoveries and inventions, the effect of which, whether in agricultin-e, manufacture, or mechanics, is to increase so remarkably the pro- ductive })0wers of a country, to render the articles produced so much chea])er and better. It admits, we believe, of no doubt that the rate of wages in a capital, such as London or Paris, or in a large town," such as Manchester, Birmingham, or Rouen, exceeds those of a small town in a degree greater than the difference in the expence of living. The resources of collected })oj)ulation have been exemplified in the Dutch provinces of Holland and Zealand, during two centuries, by the payment of an amount of taxation almost unparalleled in the annals of finance. At a time when in England, the majority of the inhabitants lived, as at present in France, in the open country, Holland had accu- mulated the larger part of her population in towns; and though their numbers have now experienced a decrease, Amsterdam and the eight cities situated within a circuit smaller than one of our middle sized counties, still contain a population of more than 400,000, a density exceeded only by London and Paris, and which, rapidly as the numbers of our manufacturers increase, will hardly be sur- passed in the present age by the poj)uIation of either our cotton, our woollen, or our hardware districts. These districts, however, aiul the parts of our island rendered populous by navigation, already confirm the result exhibited bv Holland, the aver- its stationary Cotiditiun. 241 age income of individuals being considerably greater in these than in tlie less populous parts of our island. This was a|)parent from the returns made under the Property-tax Act. In like manner in France, the returns made to government under the J()ncier, or tax on the income of landlords, farmers, and house pro})rietors, show that the revenue not only of the public, but of tlie individual, is smaller where the numbers are thinly scattered, — smaller in the mountainous departments of the south, than in the more fertile and populous districts of the north. In the main articles of food and fuel, the peasantry are often better provided than the lower orders in towns, but in other respects, there are on the Continent the same reasons as in England for allotting the superiority in property to the latter. It is in a large association only that activity and talent find an adequate field ; that the command of capital, the co-operation of assistants, can be turned to account : there is, hence, no comparison between town and country in the proportion of those who from poverty attain the comfort of a middle station ; to say nothing of those who reach a high rank in the scale of property. Farther, as every country raises food for the far greater ])art of its consum])tion, density of town- population implies, in general, an advanced state of agriculture : it is along with such density that we find extensive farms, a general ap})lication of machinery, and a variety of improvements which enable cultivators to send to market a much larger proportion of produce than can be spared in a country like the centre and south of France, where all work being done by manual labour, the larger share of the produce is necessarily consumed by those who raise it. In all respects, therefore, a R JJ42 Population : — Dumerous town-population seems to us a proof of wealth ; an evidence of the tendency of individual as well as national income, to increase as society advances in improvement. (See Appendix, p. [7^].) Subsistence more easy of Acquisition as Society advances. — The late wars, remarkable as they were ibr the fi-equent recurrence of bad seasons, ex- hibited no examples of local suffering equal to those which marked the latter yciU's of the lOth and 17th centuries ; the scarcities in the reigns of Elizabeth and William. The cause is to be sought in the general ease of communication arising ti'om the improvement of our roads, canals, and maritime navigation ; also in the more ample means of pur- chase afforded to the lower orders by the diffusion of employment, chiefly mechanical and manufac- turing, throughout almost every corner of the island. One part of the kingdom is thus enabled to come to the rehef of the other, and prices are kept nearly on an equality throughout. To this source of relief at home, is added, particularly since the peace, a supply from abroad, arising from the extension of tillage over countries in a manner un- known to our ancestors. In our chapter on Agri- culture, (p. 152.) we took occasion to remark tliat that which formerly constituted the corn country of Europe, meaning the country producing corn in sufficiency for export, is comprised between the 45th and 55th degree of latitude, and has a simi- larity df climate greater than is supposed by those of our countrymen who have not travelled or studied the temperature of the Continent. This remark applies to the Netherlands, the north of France, the north of Germany, Denmark, and even to part of Poland, all too similar to our country in Acquisition of Subsistence. ^-iS latitude and vicinity to the sea, to escape a par- ticipation in those causes of deficiency, whether arising from want or excess of rain, which, from time to time, affect our harvests. But the exten- sion of tillage along the shores of the Kuxine, and the increased cultivation of the United States, af- ford new sources of supply : these countries are distant, indeed, and the amount of import from them, must, from the cost of conveyance, neces- Barily be limited ; but as it will proceed from cli- mates not likely to be affected by the causes which lead to deficient crops in the north-west of Europe, it will of course be available in the day of need. These different inferences, whether deduced from historical or geographical authority, may be admitted by the adherents of Mr. Malthus, and when viewed in connection with our present abundance of subsistence, may be allowed to be of a nature to relieve a few generations from the ap- prehension of scarcity ; but the anti-populationists will still contend that their principle is correct, and that a time must come when the world will be exposed to the misery of over population. The argument is thus brought to a kind of ne phis ultra, but even on this final and decisive ground we are not afraid to meet our antagonists. Without de- nying that there is in the womb of time, a period when population will attain its complement, we contend that such a period is far more distant, and the intermediate increase of our numbers likely to be far greater than enters into the con- ception of either our opponents, or the ])ublic at large. Nor does it follow that when such a period shall arrive, it must be necessarily a })eriod of misery: — but to waive all speculation on this mysterious point, and to confine ourselves to that R ^Z 2 1' 1' ropulalion : — ■which is of" nearer interest, we sliall briefly ;i;ive our reasons for the opinion that our ])osterity, f()r many generations at least, are hkcly to increase their numbers with less difficnlty than has been expe- rienced by us or our ancestors. 1. Our fundamental doctrine, that increase of produce depends less on the extent of newly-culti- vated soil, than on the number of hands employed on the old, will be found proof against tiie scAcrest analysis. It is supported equally by the experience of the present age, and the general evidence of history : it supposes besides, a proportion between demand and supply, — that ability on the part of labour to obtain its reward, which corresponds so clearly with the benevolent ordinations of Provi- dence. 2. From the great diversity of soil and climate in tlie cultivated portion of the globe, scarcity is never general : " when famine was in other lands, in the land of Egypt there was bread." If this applied to an age when civilization extended over hardly ten degrees of latitude, how much more does it hold at present, and how greatly do the advantages aris- ing from improvements perpetually in progress, increase the power of mankind to turn to account the bounty of nature ? Extended communication by water enables even distant countries to supply the deficiency of each other ; while in the same territory improved methods of preserving corn, additional gianaries, augmented capital, all concur to enable tlie inliabitants to kee}) over the surplus of one year, as a pro\ ision tor the possible failure of the next. 3. The labour employed in raising subsistence, becomes progressively more effectual, the source of a larger prodiice, as society advances. This is Acquisitmn of Subsistence. 245 evinced in two ways ; one, the use of improved implements, is obvious to the common observer ; the other the supply of the requisite produce by a smaller number of agriculturists compared to other classes, is less obvious and requires the evidence of statistical documents. A census of our ances- tors, taken a century and a half ago, would have given, under the head of agriculturists, above 50 persons in 100, instead of the 33 of tlie ])resent day. The majori^r of our present po})ulation are tluis enabled to reside in towns and villages, and are rendered disj)osable for other purposes : the himibler orders employ themselves in supplying clothing or lodging; a higher class minister to the amusements, the education, or the luxury of the rich ; while the highest of all are exempt from the necessity of following any occupation whatever. Confining our view to the topic at pre- sent under discussion, in what light may we con- sider the persons who minister to our luxuries? They may be said to fbi'm a reserve of caj)ital and labour a])plicable to the increase of subsistence, in a case of imperious necessity. A population return in France, or almost any ])art of the Continent, exhibits, it is true, a larger number of residents in country than in town, but many of the former are producers of other articles than food: the flax, the hemp, the madder of their fields, the wool of their flocks, the timber of their forests, the hides of their cattle, are all constituents of supply or ingredients of consumption, quite distinct from the raising of provisions. 4. As society advances, and a i)art of the lower orders })artici})ate in the comfort of the middle classes, food forms ])rogressively a less considei'- able proportion of their expenditure. In a })opu- R 3 24G Popidalion : — lation like that of" Irelaiul, tlie chief part of France, and the |)o{)rer counties of P^nghuul, food constitutes above (iO per cent, of the total family charge ; but in our more populous rural districts, in our larger vil- lages, and in our towns generally, the proportion (see the Appendix, p. [11],) is little above .50 per cent. What does this im})ly, but the enjoyment of greater comfort on the part of our lower orders, the pos- session of a fund with which to ])urchase clothes and furnitiu-e in years of plenty. /-^nd to pay, in years of scarcity, the extra price required for provisions ? Hence, the less severe pressure of high prices of food on a po{)ulation, such as that of Holland and England, than on one devoid, in a manner, of ex- changeable commodities, such as the peasantry of Poland, Russia, or the inland districts of the High- lands of Scotland. Ought Government to take Measures for promote hig Population. — " The maxim of the politician,*'* says Mr. Gray, '* ought to be to take care of popu- lation, as population will take care of subsistence and of every other species of supply." Though con- vinced that there is much more truth in this than in most political apophthegms, we do not go quite so far as Mr. G., and have no wish to keep in the back giound the case of a population like that of Ireland, Brittany, and Poland, in which increase of numbers is attended by a verv slight increase of comfort to the individual, or of strength to the public. Nor do we assert that even in a country the most fortunately constituted, increase of popu- lation can bring with it a speedy cure to a dis- ordered state of productive industry, such as has existed among us since the peace. In the case> for example, of agriculturists, distressed by a su* Prospect of its Increase. 247 perabundance of liome growth, little relief is to be anticipated from increase of consumers, because the producers can hardly fail to augment their numbers in ail equal proportion, leaving relief to arise from the extension of home manufacture, thfe removal of hands from country to town, or other causes uncertain in the tiiiie of their occurrence, and distinct, in a great measure, from the general increase of our numbers. Next, as to men in office, on whom Mr. G. seems to think it incumbent to take measures, more or less direct, to i)romote population, we confine our exhortation to a passive course, satisfied if they do nothing to obstruct the natural increase of numbers. Let them carefully guard their minds against the notion which so naturally follows the creed of limited subsistence ; viz. that the discou- ragement of marriage, or the loss of lives in the field, and in unhealthy colonies, are not, in a sta- tistical sense, a great misfortune, because they operate, forsooth, as checks to superabundant luniibers. — In regard to population, as to national wealth, the plain rule is to avoid interf6rdhce, to take no step for the })urj)ose of giving a new di- rection to the course of events, but to remove ob- stacles wherever such hav6 been interposed by the mistaken, though well intended intervention of preceding legislators. As to town population, with all our conviction of its advantage, both to the individual and the community, we should in- finitely regret the adoption of any measure to in- crease its relative amount. Let the tide flow in its natural course : the duties of government evi- dently extend no farther tlian keeping open the channel. K 4< ^^48 J'ojjulalion : ■ \Vc sliiill now turn aside from general reasoning and direct the attention of the reader to data of" a more specific character, to an estimate of the ])0- pulation and resources of the different states of Europe : STATISTICAL TABLE OF EUROPE, IN 1823. Persons Taxes Proportion Total to a and public of such Population. square burdens burdens mile. generally. per head. Norway, including Fin- £. s. d. mark - . . 950,000 6 Sweden, Norway, and Swedish Lapland 3,600,000 10 Sweden, distinct from Norway and Swedish Lapland - - - 2,600,000 25 1,300,000 10 Russia in Europe - 37,000,000 23 1 8,000,000 9 9 Scotland ; viz. the High- lands distinct from the low country 30 Turkey in Europe, not ascertained, but proba- bly not above 8,000,000 50 5,000,000 12 6 Poland, before the parti- tion - - - 15,000,000 53 Poland, the present king- dom of, distinct from the provinces incorpo- rated with the Austrian, Russian, and Prussian dominions 2,850,000 60 1,200,000 8 8 Sardinia, island of 520,000 57 Spain - - - . 11,000,000 60 6,000,000 11 Denmark, exclusive of Faroe and Iceland 1,600,000 73 1,300,000 16 3 Hanover - - . 1,300,000 90 900,000 14 Portugal - - . 3,700,000 90 3,000,000 16 3 Switzerland, the twenty- two cantons 1,750,000 91 430,000 5 (The pecuniary burden is very small, but the Swiss are liable to military service.) Wales - - - - 740,000 96 The Austrian empire, in- cluding Lombardy, and Austrian Poland 29,000,000 112 18,000,000 12 4 The Prussian dominions 10,500,000 100 7,000,000 13 4 Europe taken vullectivelij. ^249 Persons Taxes Proportion Toul to a and public of such Population. square burdens burdens mile. generally. per head. £. 5. d. Bavaria - _ . 3,600,000 120 2,500,000 14 Sicily, isliind of 1,655,000 1.32 Dominions of the king of Sardinia, viz. Piedmont, part of the Milanese, the Genoese territory. Savoy, and the island of Sanlinia 4,000,000 148 2,200,000 110 States of the Church 2,450,000 150 900,000 7 6 The Neapolitan domi- nions, inchidins Sicily 6,700,000 154 2,700,000 8 France, including Corsica 30,700,000 150 37,000,000 1 4 Scotland ; the low coun- try distinct from the Highlands 150 2 Great Britain exclusive of Irelxind (the taxes coniputed according to the value of money on the Continent 14,500,000 165 40,000,000 2 15 Wirtemberg - _ . 1,400,000 170 1 ,000,000 14 4 Saxony ... 1,200,000 170 900,000 15 Jtaly, exclusive of Sicily 1 7,000,000 179 Great Britain and Ireland collectively 21,500,000 182 44,000,000 2 The Netherlands* 5,300,000 214 8,000,000 1 10 Austrian, Italy, or the Lombardo - Venetian kingdom 4,000,000 219 2,000,000 10 Ionian islands, republic - 230,000 230 J 00,000 8 9 England, distinct from Wales 11,600,000 232 56,000,000 3 2 Ireland ... 7,000,000 237 4,000,000 11 Holland, province of - 760,000 362 West Flanders 630,000 420 East Flanders 610,000 554 P^urope collectively, a- bout ... 200,000,000 58 180,000,000 IS * The repartition of taxation is here very unequ.al, tlic Dutch provinces, particularly those of Holland and Zealand, paying inucli more tlian \l. lO.v. a head ; the Belgic much less. Tliese returns, both as to population and j)ul)lic burdens, are, in general, taken iioni ollieial docu- ments : they require, liovvever, a tew e.\j)lanations; thus. *i5() Population : -^ Extent in squaYe Miles. — The amount assigned to England, Scotland, and Wales is taken from official returns, but in regard to Ireland and most j)arts of the Continent, the statements are, in some measure, conjectural, and to be considered only as approximations. Our Public Burdens. — ThQ sum of 44,000,000/. as the aggregate of our public burdens, may appear greatly below the mark, but it is formed by two important deductions firom our present payments ; first, by taking credit for a farther reduction of our taxes, and, in the next place, by making an abatement (of 20 per cent.) from the numerical amount of our burdens, to bring their value on a par with those of the Continent, with which they are here compared. Taa:ation of Rural Districts. — It may be ob- jected to the preceding table, that an estimate founded on taxation does not do justice to the property of a rural population, who, in many parts of the Continent, seem almost to escape the grasp of the exchequer. This exemption, however, is limited chiefly to excise dues, and is, in a great measure, balanced by a heavy land-tax, which, under different names in different countries, forms the basis of continental taxation, and is included in the column of public burdens. Population per Square Mile. — Mr* S. Cifray as^ sumes, (Happiness of States, p. 421.) that an indi- vidual for every two acres, or 320 persons for a square mile, would be a fair complement of popu- lation for the soil and climate of Europe. From this rate, however, we are still at a great distance. Europe taken collectively, 251 having attained it only in Flanders and Holland : in England and Ireland we are likely, if we pro- ceed as in the present age, to reach it in somewhat less than twenty years. In Iceland the proportion is little more than one person to a square mile, but the lowest extreme of European population is exhibited in Lapland, where tliere is not more than one inhabitant to two or three square miles. Europe taken collectively. — Our estimate is greater in regard to population, and smaller in respect to public burdens than that which is at present current on the authority of German statis- ticians ; but the latter made their computation in or before the year I8I7, since which, population has increased, and taxation has experienced a partial reduction. If those of our readers who are familiar with history, will compare tiie present state of Europe in population and revenue, with what it was two or three centuries ago, they will })erceive a degree of extension that is hardly credible. How feeble do we find tiie establishments of France, even when administered by Sully ; of England, when guided by liurleigh ; of Aus.tria, when stinudated by tlie vigour of Charles V., if we compare them to those of the same powers at the present day ! The army of Henry IV. of France, was, when at the highest, only 40,000 men : the revenue of queen Elizabeth was 600,000/. * Even the Spain of Phihp II., aided by the mines of America, is found, when her re- venue and her army are brouglit to the test of • Napier's Supplement to tlie Kiuvcloi>. F^rit. uiuk'r the heads of Englaiul and France. •^.O^ ropidalioii : — acc'iiniLc coini)iitati()ii, to have been on a j»a) with onlv tlio second-rate powers of our a^e. \V'hat a striking example is here afibrcleil of the tendency to rapid improvement in those connnu- nities which have overcome the difficulties of pri- mitive ignora)ice, and in which safety is afforded to persons and property ! More than that tiie inhabitants of the Continent can hardly be said to have received at the hands of their respective, go\'ernors, since if some sovereigns have been dis- anguished by active measures for promoting im- provement, the beneficial result of their labours has been balanced or more than balanced by am- bition and unnecessary warfare on the part of their brethren. How much more effectually would the latter have consulted, not merely the happiness of their subjects, but the increase of their political power, had they never unsheathed the sword, but been content to allow individual industry to work its way, augmenting the number and wealth of the community by a silent but sure increase ! It would be idle to lament what cannot be re- called ; but in regard to the future, we may be allowed to indulge a hope that the sovereigns of the Continent will pursue a more enlightened course ! How wide a field of improvement is open to them, if they will merely labour to transfer to their respective territories the degree of agricultural knowledge introduced into this country ! No En- o'lishman who has not travelled can form an idea of the general backwardness of the Continent, of the poverty of the farmers, the awkwardness of their implements, the deficiency of their buildings. If we cross the narrow seas and fix our attention on the districts of the Continent said to be farthest advanced, such as Flanders, Nojinandy, or the Paj/s de JScauce, we shall find their machinery so Prosjjcct ()/' I he Continent and of England. Q5S rude, and their work ])erfbrmed in so great a de- gree by manual labour, that the productive pow- ers of their soil might be doubled by the mere application of the discoveries and inventions that have taken place in our eastern and northern coun- ties. If we carry our observation farther, and calculate how nnich i-emains to be done in the neglected plains of Hungary and Poland, in the half-irrigated 'provinces of S])ain, Italy, and even the south of France, the inference is, that Europe, that boasted seat of cultivation, is not peopled to the extent of a fiftli of the numbers it may be ren- dered capable of supporting. The prospect of England. — Let us not, how- ever, imagine, that the advancement of the Conti- nent would have the effect of lessening the relative superiority of this coimtry ; on the contrary, those advantages which have enabled us to take the lead — extent of water communication, richness of mines, command of capital, superiority of civil in- stitutions, formed habits of business, — are all calcu- lated to confirm our ])re-eminence, and even to lead us forward in a (juicker ralio than our neigh- bours. To comprehend this fully, the reader ought first to acquire the conviction, that national improvement is hkely to be ])rogressive, and hns at })iesent no more reached a limit, than it had thirty, fifty, or one hunflred years ago. To accpii- esce in the notion, tliat tiie present mode of tilling the ground, of navigating the ocean, or ])erfbrniing mechanical laboiu-, is the best thai can he (l(>\isi'(l, is the ])art of the indolent and unthinking; such is the creed of the spiritless Asiatic, of the unenlight- ened peasant, and the almost e(|nallv unenlightened manufacturer in mauv parts of the Continent of" I254< Population. Europe. In this country, happily the discoveriea that MO rapidly succeed each other, afford a proof that we have not yet advanced half way in the extension of our national resources. Of this, a more ample developement shall be given in our concluding chapter, when we shall shew how surprisingly we have gained on our political rivals, in the course of the last century, and how little we have at present to dread at their hands — consi, derations calculated to confirm the public, in an approval of the pacific system which we have now so fortunately adopted, and to satisfy the appre- hensive among our countrymen, that with a steady adherence to such a course, the day of trial in the finances of England will ere long be surmounted. Q65 CHAP. VIIL National Revenue and Capital. JriAviNG appro])nated several chapters to an ex- amination of tlie condition of the country, under the separate heads of Agriculture, Population, and Poor-rate, we are now to make an attempt of a more comprehensive nature, and to bestow a chapter on our National Revenue and Capital generally. This will lead us to discuss The amount of our taxable income. The connection between its increase and the increase of our population ; and lastly, The fluctuations it has experienced in the thirty years that have elapsed since the French Revolution. Estimate, by tfte late Mr. Colquhoun, of Pro-perty created in Great Britain and Ireland, in the Year 1812. Agriculture in all its branches, (including pas- ture) ..... €217,000,000 Mines and minerals, including coals - - 9,000,000 Manufactures in every branch - - 1 1 4',0(K),000 Inland trade and banking ... ;i-5,(K)0,000 Foreign commerce and shipping - - 4(),(XX),000 Coasting trade .... 2,000,000 Fisheries, exclusive of the colonial fisheries of Newfoundland ... - 2,000,000 Foreign income remitted - - - .'5,000,000 Total - - 480,000,000 ^56 Ndlional Revenue. Siicli WHS the amount of the property created in Great Britain and Ireland in 181^ ; since which there have occurred two very material clian^^es, — a great increase in the quantity, and a still greater decrease in the prices. The latter, in the case of agriculture amounts to 60 per cent; in that of manufactures to 40 or 50 per cent. ; but as Mr. Colquhouu's estimate was made greatly below the currency of the time, 20, or at the utmost, 2.5 per cent., will form a sufficient deduction from its amount. To this we find an ample counterpoise iji the increase of quantity arising from The additional produce on the part of the hands restored to labour by the peace ; The increase of our population since 1812; and The progress of improvement in agriculture and manufactures, by which the same number of liands are enabled to produce a considerably larger quantity. The result, therefore, is, that even at reduced prices, the value of the produce of the present year, equals or exceeds that of 1812 ; but as ^\y. Colquhouu's calculation included, under the head of agriculture, a very large sum for produce, such as oats, hay, grass, &c. appropriated to the food of liorses and cattle, and as our object is to confine our table to articles for the consumption of man, or for the purposes of manufacture, we assume the total at 3.50,000,000/. That sum, then, we con- sider as representing the amount "of the property annually created in Great Britain and Ireland ; in other words, the amount of our animal production. Of this large sum, what pr()])ortion, in this land of taxes, can be considered as exempt from the visit of the assessor ? About 2.5 per cent., as appears trom the calculations in the Appendix, National Revomc, 257. leaving for our taxal)le income, somewhat more tlian 260,000,000. Thus, Estimate (four Taxable Income, in 1823^ (Great Britain distinct from Ireland.) t Rent ol" laiul returned in 18 14-, at 4-:},0{X),000/., and probably amounting, after allowing for all deduc- tions, omissions, and eva- sions in the returns, to - £4'8,000,000 Add for land brought into culture since the peace - 2,000,000 Together - 50,000,000 Deduct for all abatements of rent since the peace^ made, making, or which must ere long be made, one third, or 33 per cent. 17,000,000 Probable rental in peace - 33,000,000 Deduct furtlicr for tempo- rary deficiencies on the part of farmers, at this time of peculiar pressure 3,000,000 " €30,000,000 Tithe; amount in 1812 (see Returns of Property Tax) 4-,700,000/. ; at present computed, after making an addition for the increase of pro- duce, and an abatement for the great fall of prices .... - 4,000,0001 Rental of houses, returned at nearly 16,000,000/. in 1814; since wliicli, the houses are aug- mented in number by 15 per cent., and as rents have fallen only partially, we compute the amount at - - 17,(XX),000 Farming income, which, during the latter years of the war, was sO large as to equal the rental of our land, but which is at present so greatly Carried forward - 51,000,000 258 Natio7ial Revenue. lirought forward - 51,(XX),000 reduced, we estimate, with a view to the future, at the medium rate of 6 per cent, on 200,000,000/, the supposed amount of capital invested in agriculture - - - 12,000,(XK) Income from trade and professions, comprising not only manufacturing and mercantile profits, but income from mines, docks, canals, tolls, iron- works ; likewise salaries, as far as derived from the concerns of individuals ; to the exclusion, however, of all incomes below 50/. a year, This portion of our national revenue, returned during the war at 30,000,000/., and which, if augmented in proportion to the increase of our numbers, should at present be 35,000,000/., we compute, in consequence of the change in the value of money, and the decrease of bu- siness, at a great reduction, say . . - 22,000,000 Wages and all incomes below 50/. a year, com- puted on a population, which, (exclusive of Ireland) is now nearly 15,000,000, but from which somewhat more than a third is deducted for persons either above or below the station of those receiving wages. This large deduction comprizes not merel}^ paupers, but cottagers and all others whose mode of life is such as to lead, in a very slight degree, to the consump- tion of taxed articles. The result, estimated on a population of 9,000,000 working at the re- duced wages of peace, but adding the earnings of women and children to those of the men, is 90,000,000 Interest of our debt, funded and unfunded, since the reduction of the 5 per cents. - - 30,000,000 Conjectural amount of interest from other money securities ; viz. mortgages, private securities generally ; also public securities, such as bank stock, East India stock, foreign stock, in short, all securities distinct from those of our govern- ment ..... 20,000,000 Income of the army, navy, civil list, and public offices, after allowing for the late retrenchments. Carried forward - 225,000,000 Natiofial Revenue. 259 Brought forward - 225,000,000 and leaving out the proportion expended in Ireland .... 15,000,000 Total of Great Britain 24-0,000,000 Ireland : taxable income computed during the war at 35,000,000/.; at present at - - 25,000,000 (See Appendix, p. [79].) ■ Total of Great Britain and Ireland 265,000,000 Of which, lost to taxation, being expended abroad by travellers and emigrants - 4,000,000 Remainder - 261,000,000 Ireland. -^The total produce of land and labour in Ireland cannot, from the magnitude of the population, be below 7t>,000,000/. a year, but the cottagers are so numerous and their mode of living so inferior to that of the inhabitants of towns, that the portion of national income expended on taxed articles can hardly, (})articularly since the fall of rents, and the general decline of incomes,) exceed the 25,000,000/. whicli we Iiave introduced into the table. Increase of National Income since 1792. — The last thirty years have been a j)eriod equally re- markable for financial as for political revolutions. Do we, it maybe asked, possess the means of form- ing, with any degree of accuracy, an estimate of the increase of national income since 179'^? Such an estimate, wliether in peace or war, is a matter of great difficulty : the improvements in our land, our houses, our furniture ; the additions to our towns, our harbours, our manufacturing establishments, in the present age, arc obvious, and have been great beyond example j but as no record can express the amount of expenditure in- s 2 ^60 National Revenue, curred, or the success, necessarily very various, of sucli investments of capital, it remains with the inquirer to seek a standard of com])utation. For this we are in some measure prepared by the re- searches in the preceding chapters ; and by fol- lowing up that course of reasoning we shall probably be enabled to reduce to a systematic form that which seems at present involved in contradiction. The cause of the changes since 1792, we are dis- posed to seek in — Fluctuations in the activity of our productive industry ; Fluctuations in the value of money ; The increase of population. Of these different causes the first and second have already been illustrated (Chap. II. and III.) at considerable length ; and whatever may be wanting in regard to them shall be supplied in a subsequent part of our volume. At present, there- fore, we confine our attention to the etiect of the third cause, — increase of numbers ; — adopting the principles laid dowm in our chapter on Popidation, and applying, or endeavouring to apply them, to the circumstances of the present age. Connexion between the increase of Numbers and increase of National Income. — We have already re- marked tliat no adherent of Mr. IMalthus, whatever might be his objection to increase of numbers, has alleged that our lower orders have made a descent in the scale of comfort ; nor does the surprising increase of our population in the present age ap- pear (Chapter on Poor Rate, p. 199.) to have carried the proportion of our paupers to our total numbers, much beyond what it was a century ago. We are far from maintaining that marriages in humble life National Revenue. 261 are contracted with the requisite prudence, or that the parents of a numerous family can avoid a long and serious struggle : our argument merely is, that the situation of tlie lower classes generally, is not altered for the worse. It is the characteristic of a civilized and industrious society, like the inhabitants of Holhmd, England, or Scotland, to make suc- cessive discoveries in the means both of augmenting produce and diminishing expense ; improvements by whicli, whether effected in agriculture, maiui- facture, navigation, or trade, a country is enabled to support many more inhabitants in equal comfort. Increase of numbers therefore is, even in the case of the lower orders, conduciv^e to increase of tax- able income ; for w^e have already had occasion to- show what large sums are annually brought into the exchequer by the duties on beer, spirits, to- bacco, groceries ; all of which enter into the con- sumption of the classes in question, particularly when resident in towns. The lo-west class of Poor, — How, it may be asked, stands the question of increase (^f income, in regard to a po})nlation of such primitive habits as the cottagers of Ireland, or the mountaineers of Scotland, accustomed to confine their demands to mere subsistence? In such a case, an increase of numbers implies a correspondent increase, not of taxable income, but of the produce which, like potatoes or ])read, constitutes the mere necessaries of life ; and the result is an addition to our })opu- lation of individuals, who, though able to earn their subsistence, can be said to add to our 'political strengtli in hardly any other sense than as recruits for the public service, or as mere manual labourt'rs, being unable to make the- sacrifice requisite tbr Jearning the buf^iness of an aitisan. s 8 'i6'i Nalional Revenue. The connexion between increase of numbers, and increase of wealth, will appear more clearly, if we liave recourse to arithmetical statement, and if we subject to an analysis the 250,0()0,0(X)^. con- stituting the taxable income of the nation. This will exhibit the following proportions : Great Britain and Ireland. (Taxable Income, exclusive of the pay of the Army and Navy.) Arising from wages and salaries, and of course, directly affected by increase of population - £100,000,000 From capital and labour combined, a portion of national income, which also is much in- creased by increase of population - - 50,000,000 From rent of land, houses, or interest of money, which are influenced, though in- directly, and in an inferior degree, by the increase of numbers ... . 100,000,000 Total - '250,000,000 That the increase of taxable income, as far as such arises from wages and salaries, is in corre- spondence with the increase of our numbers, re- quires no demonstration : the same holds in regard to professional men, to merchants, to master manu- facturers, in short, in respect to every line in which income depends on personal ei'ertion. Thus, land in the hands of the farmer, like money in those of the merchant, is productive in proportion to the labour w^hich it is made to put in motion. So far the connexion is clear and undoubted ; the case, it may be said, is somewhat different in regard to a Jixed income^ whether derived from real or per- sonal property ; but even in that, the effect of in- creasing numbers is great, producing, as is w^ell known, an increasing demand for both land and money capital. In proof of this, we have merely to take, as an example, the almost daily case of a National Revenue. ^QS family becoming numerous ; the consequent repar- tition of the paternal property, and the increase of productive power given to the portion that is put in a state of activity. Fluctuations, of Income since lyf)^. — These ar- guments will readily be accounted applicable in a general sense, and for ordinary times ; but what shall furnish a rule for computing national income in so fluctuating a ])eriod as that through which we have passed since 179- ■'' The question is cer- tainly very complicated, and seems at first to admit of no clear solution ; for while a calculator, in forming an estimate twelve or fifteen years ago, could hardly have failed to pronounce the war liighly favourable to the increase of our wealth (our debt forming apparently no counterpoise to the increase of our resoiuces), a statement pre- pared since our years of distress would convey a very different result. In France, the Revolution has been styled, the " queen of all earthly re- \'erses ;" but we might almost hazard an opinion that the effect of that convulsion, viewed in regard to change of property and in all the extent of its duration (now aho\e thirty years), has been as great in this country as in tliat which gave it birth. Among our neighbours, the change was more sudden, directed more against a particular class, and bringing with it, too often, the melan- choly consequence of loss of lite; but with us it has been more comprehensive, tor the alteration in the value of money has come home to every class and condition. If in France, government an- nuitants suffered during the war a much greater reduction tlian heie, (here is no comparison be- tween the two countries in the extent of fiuctua- s 4 9(54 National Revenue ; tion in the circumstances of a far more numerous class — the farmers. Their j)rosperity during tlie war and their decline since the peace, have both been much more in extremes among us, than on the Continent. An Estimate of them attempted. — Amidst all these changes in indiv^idual property, is it practi- cable to discover any rules of general application, any data on wliich to found a comparison of the circumstances of the public of the present day with those of the public of 1806 or 1792? This task may, perhaps, be found less difficult than it appears. In a community so great and so varied as the population of these kingdoms, the ease of one part is often cotemporary with the em])arrass- ment of another ; and there prevails, in the gene- ral result, a tendency to a balance, an approacli to Tiniformity which would hardly be credited by those who, in drawing their inferences, allow tliem- selves to be forcibly struck by the fluctuation of particular classes. It was tluis that our revenue stood its ground during all the trials of the war and the no less trying interval that has followed : it is thus, also, that the amount of our exports and imports has continued to bear a proportion to two regulating circumstances (the value of money and- the increase of our population), amid all the ano- malies, introduced by restrictions, prohibitions, li- cences ; it is thiis that at present, the distress of the producer of corn, is accompanied by a tempo- rary advantage to the consumer. The ])olitical arithmetician is, therefore, in some measure, justi- fied in forming a conclusion, which, without this collateral support, might appear vague and unten- able; viz. " That though the circumstances of its Increase since 179^. ^2iS5 individuals, separately, are so much altered since 1792, those of any given number, whether 100, 1000, or 10,000, are more nearly on a par than is generally supposed." This reasoning is calculated to lead to the infer- ence, that our national income, (at least that of Great Britain distinct from Irehmd), has increased since 179~ in the ratio of the increase of our population. We have, however, no wish to press this point, it being of little consequence to our argmnent, whether the proportion of the one, has been greater or less than that of the other. It is enough that we obtain assent to one leading con- sideration, viz. that the surprising addition to our numbers, since 1792 (50 per cent.) is, as far as can be ascertained, unaccompanied by any general de- terioration of ))rivate circumstances. The changes in such circumstances have been almost infinite, but there seems no reason to imagine that the number of families or individuals, who have experi- enced a decHne, exceeds that of those who have improved their circumstances. But are we, it may be said, authorized to assume an equality in tiie individual income of this coun- try between 179'^, a season of tranquillity, and the present, which is one of general embarrassment? To this argument, unluckily of great weight, we oppose one of equal, or almost equal power; viz. the great comparative increase of our tovvn-j)oj)u- lation, the extent of which, as income inc?'cases so much more in town than in the comilri/ (C'lia])ter on Population, p. 240.) would ha\ e justified us, luul our present circumstances been as tranquil and secure as in 1792, in assuming an increase* of na- tional property considerably beyond that of the 50 per cent, indicated by oiu- numbers. 266 National Ravenue ; Without, therefore, affecting precision in a calcu- lation where it is evidently unattainable, we shall adopt the increase of our numbers, as an approx- imation to a basis for calculating the increase of our national revenue. Proceeding on this ground, we shall exhibit in the tabular form, the aug- mentation that has taken place since 1792, pre- mising that our chief materials are the population and property-tax returns, and that for the period of war, we make a considerable addition on tlic score of extra wages and profits. its Increase since 179^. 2(J7 Conjectural Amount of our National Revenue or Taxable Income at different Periods, from 1792 to 1822. Great Britain distinct from -^ ^ ,„„„ Totals, also in Ireland. Money of 1,92. M^ney of 1792. In 1792, our taxable income appears to have been as stated in p. 35. about - £125,000,000 In 1806: increase calculated in the ratio of the increase of our population, 18 per <;ent. in 14 years - - 22,-500,000 Together - - 1477500,600 Probable addition from the higher wages and higher profits of a sate of war - 22,500,000 Total of taxable income in 1806 . - - . 170,000,000 In 1813 or 1814: Increase of national income since 1806, calculated in the ratio of the increase of population, 1 1 per cent. ; thus : — National income in 1806, as above .... _14.7,500,000 Add 1 1 per cent. - - ~ 16,500,000 Together - - 16t,(XX),(X)0 Probable addition from the higher wages and higher profits of a state of war - 24,(KK),000 Total of taxable income in 18L'J or 1814 - * 188,000,000 Great lirilain and Irciand. 1823. Increase of taxable income in the ratio of the population, 15 per cent. since 1814; thus: — Amount in 1814 - - 164,(K)0,01K) Add 15 per cent - - 24,(XX),000 Add farther the taxable income of Ireland 25,000,000/. equal in money of 1792 to - - - 21,000,000 Total of our taxable income in 1823, (in money of 1792) 209,000,(XK) ^)S Nation'nt Revenue ; These results, which, we repeat, are only ap- proximations, convey a clear- idea of the effect of increasing- population on national income. The next point is, the diffei'ence of numerical amount produced by the rise or fall in the value of money. Great Britain distinct from ^ ^ TJctQ ' ,Money of subse- Irelt^iul. ^ . ' quent years. 1792: Taxable income as per preceding table - - £125,000,000 1806: Do. per do. - - 170,000,000 After the general rise of prices that took place be- tween 1792 and 1806, 170,000,000/. in money of 1792, was in the transac- tions of 1806, equivalent to 220,000,000 And an actual return of our national revenue or taxable income in the currency of 1806, would probably have given a sum of 220,000,000/. 1813 or 1814: Taxable income as in last page - - 188,000,000 The rise of prices, in all 60 per cent, since 1792, render- ed this sum equal in all money transactions in 1813 and 1814, to nearly - 300,000,000 Great Britain and Ireland. 1823. Taxable income as in last page - - - - 209,000,000 The calculation in regard to the A'alue of money is now reversed, prices having fallen, or, in other words money having risen in value between 1814 and 1823, nearly 30 per cent. Still it is about 30 per cent. lower than in 1792, so that the last mentioned sum 209,000,000/. money of 1792), is equal in the cur- rency of 1822, to about 270,000,000 A sum not materially different from the amount of the table • of taxable income contained in p. 258. its Increase since 17 9^^' 2C9 Our next object is to inti'oduce our burdens into this comparative table, and to calculate their proportion at ditierent periods to our revenue. Statement of our Public Burdens and National Revenue, calculated for distinct Periods. The Public Burdens include Taxes {before deducting the Ed'pence (f Collection), Poor-rate, and Tithe. Great Britain distinct from Ireland. Years. 1792 1806 1814 Public Burdens. £22,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 Our National Re- venue or Taxable IllCOUK'. £125,000,000 220,000,000 300,000,000 Proportion of Bur- den to Revenue. nearly 18 to 100 27 to 100 27 to 100 Great Britain and Ireland, {see Appendix, p. [85].) 1823 I 64,000,000 | 260,000,000 | 25 to 100 That we may divest tins statement of the in- tricacies attendant on the difference in the value of money at different periods, we subjoin a table, in winch the sums on both sides are reduced to a common standard, viz. the money of 1792. Great Britain distinct lioni Ireland. Years. 1792 1806 1814 Public Bur- dens, in I^Ioney of 1792. £22,000,000 46,000,000 50,000,000 Our National Re- venue or Taxable Income in Money of 1792. ^125,000,000 170,000,000 188,000,000 Proportion of Bur- dens to Revenue. nearly 18 to 100 27 to 100 27 to 100 Great Britain and Ireland, [see Appendix, p. [85].) 1823 I 50,000,000 1 200,000,000 1 25 to 100 The reduction to a common standard is useliil in several respects, particularly in correcting the exaggerated estimate, which, during the wai-, we *270 National Rcve7iuc were iiccustomed to make of botli our burdens and our resources. France; her National Income. — We conclude our chapter by a brief" parallel between this country and her most powerful neighbour. The national income, by which we mean the aggregate of indi- vidual income, is, in one sense, somewhat greater in France than in this country ; but in regard to the portion of it that is taxable, the advantage will be found on our side, in consequence, chiefly, of our greater town-population : thus, Comparative Sketch oj' National Income expended on taxed Articles, Great Britain and Ireland. France, after adding to the actual receipts 20 per cent, for the greater value of money. Rent of land and farmer's profit at peace prices. Tithe Rent of houses . - - - Income arising from commerce, manufactures, and professions, as far as such are of 50/. and up- wards; also income from mines, docks, canals, tolls, &c. Small incomes (below 50/.) and wages of all accustomed to con- sume taxed articles, as beer, tea, sugar, tobacco, in England ; or wine, cyder, tobacco, sugar, coffee, in France. 50,000,000 5,000,000 18,000,000 24,000,000 60,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 -100,000,000 110,000,000 Together -197,000,000 206,000,000 Such is the amount of income' \ arising from the land and labour of| either country. To this we now make an addition of great import- ance as a source of taxation, what-] Parallel wit// France. 271 1 France, after _, . . adding to the Great Britain ^^^^^^ ^^^-^^^^ and 2Q p^^ ^.^^^^ f^^ Ireland. ^^^^ greater value of money. Brought forward ever may be thought of it as a constituent of national wealth. Income from money in the public funds, or lent on private secu- rities Received from government, dis- tinct from the interest of the public debt ; viz. the pay of the army, the navy, the public offices, the civil list, the miscel- laneous services, after allowing for the late reductions Total taxable income * - - £ 197,000,000 50,000,000 18,000,000 £ 206,000,000 25,000,000 19,000,000 265,000,000 250,000,000 * Any discrepancies between this column and that in page 25, arise from the latter exhibiting the returns of Great Britain distinct from Ireland. Wages. — To put the two countries so nearly on a par in regard to wages, may seem hardly fair towards France, su])eric)r as that country is in po- pulation, and reduced as wages in some measiu'e have been, and are likely to be among us. But in a calculation of national revenue, the magnitude of the po})ulation of France ought, in a great measure, to be kept in the back ground, many millions being cottagers, who, as in Ireland, do little more than maintain themselves on their })etty occupancies, consuming few articles productive to the exchequer, and adding little to the national strength, otherwise than by recruits foi- the mi- litary service. Wages are highest among a town- })opulation, in which England takes greatly the lead. Add to this, that in all Catholic countries there is a considerable loss of wages from holidays. '27^ National Revenue ; — Parallel mlli France. Rent of Houses. — In this respect, France was formerly entitled to rank before us ; but houses in a riual district yield very Httle rent ; and while French towns arc comparatively stationary, ours have been and continue in a. state of rapid in- crease. Comparative Prospects ofEnglnnd and France. — This interesting question shall be discussed at considerable length in our chapter on Finance, ^7' CHAP. rx. Effect of the late Wars on Propertt/, individual and national. 1 HE researches we have already had occasion to make in regard to our agriculture and national revenue, prepare us, in a considerable degree, for the farther and more comprehensive enquiry to which this chapter is appropriated. In the invest- igations connected with it, we shall studiously avoid discussing the policy or impolicy of our great contest ; the practicability of avoiding it in the outset, or of terminating it in an earlier stage. We shall avoid, in like manner, any parallel between the magnitude of our sacrifices on one hand, and the benefit resultin<>; on the other from restorino the equilibrium of the Continent. Nothing, in- deed, would be more hopeless than an attempt to produce any thing like uniformity of opinion on such a subject. The oppositionist, in his review of the events of the last thirty years, takes littft* account of the danger that arose afler 1795, from the aggrandizing spirit of the French govern ment; nor, while urging, and urging jusUy, tiie insignificance to us of most causes of continental quarrel, does he make due allowance lor the im- portance of the Netherlands, and the alarming ad- dition whicii their possession made to the power of France. The ministerialist, on the other hand, is equally confident and indiscriminating, making T '^7'!' E(](rl of fhr Idle IVars oji Propcrl/f, no ailmissioM of the occasions on wliicli (as in 179^^^ iind I8O7) onr government acted an aggressive part, and justifying the attack on Copenhagen as he wonhl the defence ol" Spain. From tiie delu- sion that the war was a source of permanent wealth, we now begin to be awakened ; but, in otiier re- spects, we are yet far distant from the time when the public shall be enabled to view the transactions of this eventful age with the calmness of historical enquiry. It will be for a succeeding generation to appreciate, on the one hand, the ferment produced by the French Revolution ; on the other, the course by which our political guides, had they been aware of the little dependence to be placed on foreign allies, and of the aid to be derived for the maintenance of order from the upper and mid- dle classes at home, might have endeavoured to conduct our affairs during the period of alarm. The hazardous alternati\'e of an appeal to arms would probably have been avoided, had our coun- cils been guided by a Burleigh or a Walpole ; or had he who was placed at our helm in those critical times, been of an age to derive from personal re- flection and experience that knowledge in which he was necessarily deficient, and the want of whicli was so feebly supplied by the coadjutors witli whom our system of parliamentary influence obliges a minister to become connected. Political Economists, — The discrepancy that prevails among politicians is equally remarkable among political economists. To the follower of Smith and Say, all war seems impolitic and unne- cessary ; in his eyes, the whole of military array, the training, equipping, and maintaining of fleets and armies, is an absolute sacrifice, the loss of the Individual and National. QJ5 labour of the most valuable part of our population. It is with great diHiculty that he can be brought to allow that war brings with it even a temporary aliment to its consuming powers. Mr. Say, the political economist of France, after visiting this country in the first year of peace, published the following remarks. " Ministers and public men in England are as yet, (he wrote with reference to our ministry of I8O7), far from having a just sense of the folly and ruinous tendency of war : their progress has not kept pace with the progress of the nation. The misfortunes of England take their rise in the higher regions, like the hail and the tempest : her blessings spring from beneath, like the fruits of an inexhaustible soil. The taxes have not only doubled, but tripled since 1792 j and still the war expenditure greatly exceeded their amount. The consequence is, an enormous enhancement of prices ; mercantile men are obliged to do business on very slender profits, and what is still worse, many of the manufactured articles aj*e sadly fallen from their former reputation. My French readers,** he adds, " will be surprized to find in my pages an opinion so much at variance with the current notion that England is the land for the easy and ra])id attainment of fortune ; but the reality is widely different from the appearance." A very different picture of the effect of war is given by Mr. 8. Gray, to whom we have so fre- quently referred in our chapter on population, and who came several years ago before the public, as the author of a system bearing the emphatic name of " productive." The pages in which that doctrine is recommended to the world, contain a number of arguments on tlic connexion between govern- 276 Fifjict of flic late IVars on ProjK-rti/, mcMit expenditure and the increase of individual income, taxes being considered hy Mr. Gray in the Hght of useful stimulants to our national in- dustry. He has the merit of detecting several imperfections in Dr. Smith's definition of product- ive and unproductive labour; but in reasoning on our war expenditure, he evidently fails to distin- guish between a temporary and a lasting excite- ment, and assumes, from the circulation of money raised by loans and taxes, as much advantage as if war prices were necessarily permanent, and as if, on concluding peace, we could consider our- selves exempt from the frightful reaction experi- enced during the last nine years. To these opposite authorities, each tending in some degree to an extreme, we add the observ- ations of a third writer. " Notwithstanding the immense expenditure of the Enghsh government during the late wars, there can be Httle doubt but that the increased production on the part of the people has more than compensated for it. The national capital has not merely been unimpaired, it has been greatly increased ; and the annual revenue of the people, even after the payment of their taxes, is probably greater at the present time than at any former period of our history. For the proof of this, we might refer to the increase of population, — to the extension of agriculture, — to the increase of shipping and manufactures, — to the building of docks, — to the opening of numerous canals, as well as to many other expensive undertakings; — all denoting an increase both of capital and of annual produc- tion." {Ricardo on Political Economi/, second Edition, p. 170.) This passage presents, perhaps, too favourable a a view of our situation ; and ought, before we can receive it as a true picture, to be accompanied by two admissions. First, that though our na- tional income has increased, our burdens have aug- mented in a still greater ratio ; and, secondly, that in any estimate of our wealth expressed in money Individual and National. '^77 in the present day, a considerable deduction is to be made from an estimate in 179^, on account of the inferior \a\\\q of money. It is fair, however, to add, that this passage was written at a time (1816) when the fall of prices was only beginning, and w^hen we were unable to calculate the extent of fluctuation and loss arising from the war. Since then, seven eventful years have elapsed, and have disclosed a succession of circumstances beyond the reach of foresight, but replete with in- struction when examined in the order of their oc- currence. With this advantage, we now follow up the enquiry, and instead of reasoning in general terms, like the writers we have quoted, we shall endeavour to build on a secure foundation, and proceed, as in our preceding chapters, by a series of calculations and specific results. Our arrange- ment shall be as follows : Losses incurred during the prosecution of the war. Losses attendant on the transition from war to peace. Comparative amount of our national income in war and peace. Have our public men understood our financial situation ? Losses io our produclivc Indus/ny on a Trans- ttionfrom Peace to JVar. — Tliese losses, unknown in a great measure to the younger part of the pre- sent generation, will long live in the recollection of those who are of an as:e to remember the bank- ruptcies of 1793. These pervaded eciiially our commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural inte- rests, and affected almost all whose undertakings T S 278 EtP^c^ '.'/ '^'^ '^'^^ IVars on Properlj/, were not supported by snl)stantial capital. To frhat was a pressure so general to be ascribed ? To the sudden and extensive change that took place ; to a demand on the part of government for men and money ; and to the consequent necessity of abandoning various undertakings, the profit of which, ahnost always less than is vulgarly imag- ined, could be made to answer only by the aid of a low rate of interest and moderate price of labour. Ih these days, as at present, our countrymen were speculative, eager to embark on new enterprises, and apt to trust to prospective advantages for those means of providing for payments which their limited capital did not afibrd. This sanguine dis- position may be termed the great feature that dis- tinguishes our countrymen and the North Ameri- cans from the traders and agriculturists of the continent of Europe, among whom the same oc- cupation is so often followed from father to son, with little idea of change or attempt at extension. But our spirit of enterprise, however favourable to discovery and improvement, is necessarily at- tended by a revolution in the circumstances of individuals on the occurrence of any political change. The blow first strikes establishments of the most adventurous character, and goes on to involve others injured by the failure of the first, and possessing, like them, few resoiu"ces against an unforeseen demand. Embarrassments of this de- scription were felt chiefly in the first and second years of the war, during the interval that luiavoid- ably elapsed before the capital and labour dis- turbed in their employment by the war, could receive a new direction, and be invested anew in a productive form. Individual and National. 279 From this almost tbrgottcii tlieme, we proceed to a part of the subject much more familiar to the majority of our readers; to au Estimate of the Burden arising from Government Expenditure during the War. Interest of the debt contracted during the war, after allowing for the reduction of the 5 per cents. - . - . . €22,000,000 The annual amount of half-pay and pensions in the army, navj', and civil service, arising from the war, is at present (1823), about 4-,5()0,0(K)/. ; but consisting almost all of life annuities, may be computed equal to a permanent burden of - 2,000,000 Exclusive of this, the expence of our army and navy is very greatly augmented since 1792, partly from the extension of our foreign pos- sessions, partly from causes unconnected with the war, such as the increase of our population, and the necessity of enforcing the collection of the revenue in Ireland. As yet the charge of our army and navy (distinct from half-pay and pensions), exceeds that of 1792 by 6,000,000/., but from the prospect of continued peace, and the general fall of prices, we may anticipate a farther eventual reduction of 1,000,000/. Of the remaining 5,000,000/., we put to the ac- count of the war, somewhat more than half, viz. . . . - - 3,000,000 Add, for increase of the civil list, salaries, pen- sions in consequence of the war and of the rise caused by it in prices - - - 2,()()0,()00 Other war charges not enumerated - - 1,000,000 Total . - C 30,000,000 Such is the amount of burden arisini:; from our war expenditure; lui})pily, however, there are al- leviating considerations. r 4 li.SO iljfci/ of I he lalv H'cirs on l*roprr/i/. Deductions from our apparent Burdens. Tadation of other Countries. — It is in some re- spects a matter of little difficulty to understand the financial relief \vhicl» we have in prospect ; such, for example, as the decrease in our half-pay and pensions, ejther by the occurrence of deaths, or a transfer for long annuities ; but the case may not be quite so clear in regard to a deduction of another kind, we mean that which arises from a ** community of the pressure of taxation on the civi- lized world at large.'* Yet, however real our Idsses from the war, however inferior our national wealth to what it would have been, had peace been unin- terrupted, we cannot be said to have incurretl ab- solute injury, or to labour under any permanent disadvantage, in as far as similar burdens have been imposed on those who are our competitors in the career of productive industry. This, we say, though perfectly aware of the folly of the doc- trine that one nation gains by impoverishing an- other. Our argument, when attentively examined, will be found to rest on a very different basis : war, at all times a losing game, would be doubly so, w^ere our opponents to escape a participation in the pecuniary pressure ; our productive labour- ers would soon emigrate, and pursue their industry in untaxed countries. To brinsf our ars^ument to a point : if in England tlie late wars ha\'e increased the proportion of burden to income by twelve per cent., and if in France, Germany, or the Netherlands, the comparative increase be five or six per cent., our loss, serious as it is, can hardJy be considered as exceeding the difierence *, we ^0 Individual and Naliunal. t^81 mean that in whatever regards tiie liazard of rival- ship, or the injury from foreign] competition, our disadvantage is limited to the extra six or seven per cent. Ou7^ War Todies. — Our next modification of our losses is also of a very extensive character, though it does not happen to form a deduction from the preceding table. It comprises no less than the lurger portion of the mm raised bij "jcar tojces^ which, though (see Chapter II. p. 24.) of very great amount, we are disposed to consider as defrayed out of the extra profits of a state of war ; so largely were the gains of the public, whether in the shape of interest, salary, wages, or profit of stock, in- creased by the circulation of the money raised by our loans. In making this great allowance, we are perfectly aware that in many cases, particularly after oiu' unfortunate Orders in Council, our merchants and manufacturers paid their taxes, as our farmers at present pay their rent, not from income but f ironi capital. We are aware, also, that the resources which supplied our war taxes were, in a great mea- sure, temporary, and of a natiue to disap})ear with the stimulus that excited them : but our estimate is confined to the years of war ; and we arc pro- bably justified, on considering all circumstances, in making the preceding deduction, important as it is. Public Works, such as Canals, Roads, and Bridges, — These, however commendable in the intention, are expedient as undertakings only when the returns are such as to afford a fair interest for the capital invested. From the high price of labour and materials in the latter })art of the war, most speculations of the kind, such tor example as the new bridges of the metro))olis, wcic attended with '282 I']lF'cf o/'t^ii' ^(if^- IVars on V roper tij, a far greater cliarge than if they had been post- poned and executed in peace. The same holds in regard to our agriculture, in which a large share of the outlay was incurred on the assumption of high prices. Even in the case of our manufacturing machinery, a part erected when labour was high, is no longer necessary or profitable, now that labour is reduced. Still, a great part of such loss is merely in appearance, and resolves itself into the different value of money: the canal share, which, in 1813, cost 100/., may be said to indemnify its owner, if it at present fetches y^/., because that sum is at pre- sent equal in the power of purchase to the 100/. of 1813. Such investments of property involve an absolute loss only, in as far as they fall below tliat proportion, a case at present unfortunately loo frequent. Tithe. — This portion of our burdens is difJerent, in several respects, from general taxation. Its amount, as expressed in money, increased sur- prisingly during the war, in consequence of two causes, — the enhancement of produce, and tlie extended cultivation attendant on the increase of our numbers. How far did the payment of this increased amount prove of detriment to our re- sources ? It was defrayed by that portion of the community, who, so long as the war lasted, were most able to defray their burdens. On the public at large, its pressure was not apparent ; in an indi- rect sense, however, that pressure was great, for tithe operated as an obstacle to ctdiiration^ and greatly restricted the amount of our produce, at a time when it would have been most desirable to increase it. Poor-Rate. — In tliis respect, the estimate of Individual ami National, 283 burden during the late wars is subject to consider- able qualification. The increase of the rate having been as great in agricultural as in manufacturing districts, although in the former, work was, all along, abundant, the inference is, that the rise was, in a great measure, iiominaly and would other- wise have been paid in the shape of wages. Add to this the decrease of rates in tlie last and present year, with the probability of a progressive diminu- tion, and we shall find that the portion of burden attributable to the war is by no means so great as might be inferred from the numerical statements of the poor-rate. The National Debt. — After all these allowances, it may be incumbent on us to answer the question, whether we *' consider our national debt as forming an actual loss, an absolute addition to our public burdens?'* This question, idle in the view of the attentive enquirer, is by no means superfluous in regard to the cursory observer, to those who im- agine our debt a property which, without the war, would have had no existence, a responsibility of little importance because due among ourselves. All such notions we entreat our readers to dismiss from their minds, and to consider our debt as not less real for being due to our countrymen. It is the record of money expended, gone for ever; and involving, as far as our burdens exceed those of other countries, a series of disadvantages. Had we had no war, the capital and labour that has led to the formation of our debt would not have been unemployed ; it would have been put in activity by other causes, and received its increase in a dif- ferent form. The product, we allow, would, j)r{). bably, have been smaller, because the ratio of in- 284 J\ff'^^^ uflhc Idtc IVars on. Propcrtij, crease, whether iiom interest, profit of stock, or personal exertion, would, in a state of continued peace, have been much less considerable. Effect of the War on the Habits of Individuals. — The increase of wealth arising from the war was much more an increase of income than of property. In the latter sense the war was bene- ficial to those only who had formed their habits in a season of tranquil occupation, of moderate profit, and who, from their experience and time of life, were capable of reaping the new harvest without abusing it. The case was very different with those who, entering on business during the war, took for granted that circumstances would continue as they found them, and made no provision for a reverse. The characteristics of this youthful generation may be said to have been a general confidence, a habit of early expence, a repugnance to the cautious perseverance of former days. The extent of evil arising from such a source can be computed by those only whose observation has embraced a wide range, who have marked throughout the present age the frequent substitution of adventure for industry, and the reiterated loss of capital when entrusted to the young and inexperienced. Losses on ttie Transition from War to Peace. No period of our history affords an example of a change so sudden and so extensive as that which took place in the state of our productive industry after the peace of 1814. For the relinquishment of foreign colonies, and for an active rivalship in manufacture, on the part of the continent of Europe, the public were prepared ; but they had, in a manner, lost sight of the great diflference be- tween government expenditure in peace and war ; Individual and National. ^85 and the few who took this difference into account, imagined that the diminution of demand at home would be balanced by our exports to newly opened markets in America and Asia. These persons were by no means aware either of the mag- nitude of our circulation at home arising from war expenditure, or of the substantial difference be- tween an assiu'ed payment in England, and the hazard attendant on transactions with distant coun- tries. Many anticipated a partial reduction of wages, but not a general want of work ; a dimi- nution of mercantile and manufacturing profit to a certain extent, but in no degree proportioned to that which took place. Yet the years of peace have been marked by no calamity of a general nature ; by no such bankruptcy as the South Sea or Mississippi scheme ; by no territorial cessions, like the relinquishment, at the peace of 1783, of our North American provinces; by no insuruection in our colonies ; no successful rivalship on the part of competitors either in manufacture or navigation. Magnitude of the Change. — ^\'hat, tlien, were the causes of our great and unexpected embar- rassments? Not a reduction of our means con- sidered physically or intrinsically, but a general change in the mode of rendering them productive ; a sudden removal of the stimulus arising from tlie war. In no former contest had our military esta- blishments been carried to such a height : the number of our militiamen, soldiers, and sailors, dis- charged, amounted to between two and three hun- dred thousand, while the individuals em])I()yed in the manufacture of clothes, arms, stores, in the supply of provisions, tlie navigation of transports, amounted, perhaps, to two hundred thousand more. The macfnitude of the transition will be best shown 28(i mH'f'f <}flli<^' Ifitc IVars on Propcr/i/, by a brief comparison of the sums expended by oineninient in tlie iivc last years of the war, and the ti\ e first years of peace : YEAUS OF WAR. 1811. - £ 92,200,000 181 4-. - i^l 17,000,000 1812. - 103,400,000 1815. - 110,0()0,(KK) 1813. - 121,000'000 Average - 108,720,000 YEARS OF PEACE. 1816. - 72,000,000 1819 - 59,000,000 1817. - 66,300,000 1820 - 61,000,0(X) 1818 - 67,000,000 Average - 64-,660,00G Peace thns caused an immediate reduction of more than forty millions in the amoinit of the money distributed by government to pay cm})loy- ment, or, in other words, to stimulate productive industry. Add to this that during the war most of our establishments had been formed on a large scale, a scale that supposed a power of demand, a ca])acity of payment much greater than was found to exist after the peace. This w-as the case in regard not only to great offices, but private esta- blishments of the most dissimilar character j manu- factures, mercantile houses, seminaries of education, and a variety of undertakings, almost all of which, w^hether in the metropolis or provincial towns, were adapted to a community increasing not only in its numbers, but in its power of expenditure. The means by w^hich we were enabled to pay such heavy contributions during the war have been already explained. Exempt from continental com- petition, the public, or at least four-fifths of the public, had at that time the power of indenniitying tbemselves for their taxes by an increased rate of charge. This was the case of the land-holder, the farmer, the owner of houses, the receiver of tithe : Individual and National. 287 it was the case, likewise, of persons cxercisiiii^ pro- fessions, of those receiving sahiries, and of the very mnneroiis class, whose dependence is on wages. At the peace, all or almost all was reversed : agricnl- turists, merchants, manufacturers, fell from their 'vantage ground, and prosperity was, during several years, confined to aimuitants, to whom, since 1S20 or 1821, we are enabled to add the majority of the labouring classes. It must not be interred ti-om this that our consumption, whether of agricultuial or manufactured produce, experienced an absolute diminution ; for our numbers, as was shown at the time by the extent of new buildings, and subse- (piently by the population returns, were annually on the increase j but partly from the economy in- troduced by altered circumstances, more from an augmentation of supply, the increase of buyers did not equal the increase of sellers, and a general fall of prices became unavoidable. Finally, our dis- tress was aggravated in no slight degree by the ab- sence of many of our countrymen of the upper and middling classes, who, whether as travellers or as residents on the Continent, incurred an expendi- ture of several millions annually abroad, at the time it was most wanted at home. Distress of Foreign Countries. — Similar causes of embarrassment were unfortunately in operation on the Continent of Europe. In former wars the evils of transition had been felt in few countries, and to a comparatively small extent; but in IS 13 and 181 1<, almost all Europe had been in military array, and every country felt the sudden change from disembodying of armies, cessation of go\ern. ment purchases, and an overstock of productive labourers. Add to this, tiiat our greatest cus- ^8S E[Jrct of I he late IVars on Proper! jj, tomers, tlie United States of America, had siift'ered so severely, Hist from the stoppage of their naviga- tion, and afterwards from the return of peace, as to be far less able to pay for our goods than during the continuance of tiie war. The consequence was that our foreign trade, though not diminisiied, and even partially increased in amount, failed, from irregularity in the payments, to prove an efficient source of relief. Temporary Revival of Activity in 1818. — The extent of our suffering might have been in some degree lessened, had our real situation been earlier known, or had it not undergone considerable fluc- tuation in the years that have elapsed since the peace. The year 1811- produced two great re- sults; a fall of corn, and a reinstatement of the value of bank paper. Both continued during 1815 and 1816, but the bad harvest of the latter year renewed the operation of our corn laws, and being followed by a revival of trade and manufacture, accustomed us anew to high prices, gave a tempo- rary increase to the revenue, and suspended the measures that might otherwise have been taken for a general adaptation of our burdens to oiu* means ; we mean a reduction of salaries and those other incomes in regard to which, from the sums being previously fixed, the course of circumstances has not had free operation. Our second period of dis- tress (beginning in 1819) thus came on us as un- expectedly as the first, and we are now, in the ninth year of peace, discussing those points which it had been of infinite importance to us to have understood from the moment that the overthrow of Buonaparte opened the prospect of a general change. Individual and National 289 Our probable Situation had the War been avoided, — We shall close these remarks by a brief calcula- tion of what would probably have been our finan* cial situation, supposing political science to have been as well understood at the time of the Freilch revolution as at present, and our statesmen equally convinced of the close connexion between the pre- servation of peace, and the increase of national prosperity. Had such been the case, we may fairly assume that our cabinet would either not have interfered in the war at all, or would have made peace in 1793, as soon as the French were driven within their frontiers. For tranquillity at home they would probably have trusted to mea- sures of police, to the aid of an armed force, and to the support of the middle and upper classes of society. The troubled aspect of the times, and the necessity of arming the executive branch with power both to repress sedition, and to effect such measures as the union with Ireland, and the equal collection of taxes throughout the kingdom, would doubtless have obliged us to increase our army and carry our expenditure considerably beyond that of 179^» The result might have been that our taxes and poor-rate which in 179^, amounted (including Ireland) to about 20,000,000/., might by this time have been carried by a gradual increase to 28 or 30,000,000/. In other respects also, our situation would have been exempt from the extraordinary fluctuations we have witnessed. Thus the price of wheat would, even after the double failure of crop in 1799 and 1800, hardly have exceeded .SOj;. mo- derate as would have been the charges on import. In a state of peace the attention of our ministers miglit Uave been bestowed on measures of internal u f290 Kf]Wl of (hi' laic J Tars on Proper/ 1/, improvement, sucli as cominutation of tithe, e(|iial- ization of poor-rate, or the removal of commercial restrictions, all necessarily })ostponed during a contest, which not only absorbed their time, but obliged them, from their dependence on the support of particular interests, to submit to a tacit continu- ance of abuses. If we are told that the average rate of profits and wages being smaller in peace than in war, our national income would not in the former alternative have been so large, our answer is, that while we admit the quicker increase of in- vidual income during war, we have to bring against it a formidable deduction in the losses attendant on the transition to peace. Or if, to avoid argu- ment, we limit our estimate of loss arising from the war to a sum of which the interest is 15 or 18,000,000/. a year, we allow even then that we have incurred a burden equal to the revenue of the Austrian or Russian empire. The late Wars examined hy moral Considerations. — We proceed to bestow a few sentences on the events of the late war, considered on higher grounds than those of mere calculation. The ap- parent triumph of injustice, in national as well as individual transactions, has, as is well known, often embarrassed candid inquirers, and reduced them almost to question the interference of Providence in the course of human affliirs. Among our neigh- boLU'S on the southern shore of the Channel, scepti- cism received an unfortiniate extension at the time of the revolution ; an extension to be attributed partly to the youth and unthinking character of many of the reformers, partly to the odium to which the Catholic clergy exposed themselves by Individual and National, f291 their o))po.sition to the new cause. During many years the success of a restless despot seemed to confirm the doubts of the intervention of a higher power, since it was not till the Continent luid been overrun, that political justice resumed its course. But if such impressions may be expected in a country where religion wears a form ill calculated to obtain the conviction of a reflecting mind, ought M^e to have expected in England a favourable re- ception to such a doctrine as that of our national wealth being augmented by war? Hap])ily no such conclusions are suggested by the writings of those who have most successfully investigated the sources of national prosperity; by the labours of Turgot, Smith, or Say. If to describe the structure of the human frame ; to explain the connexion and the subserviency of its various parts, has been declared ecpiivalent to a hynm in praise of its divine Author, not less is that testimony due to the study of the causes of the success of productive industry. Researches into that subject, when prosecuted in the spirit of im})artiality, tend more and more to establish the connexion between equity and j)ros- perity, between fairness in principle and success in practice. This connexion, we can safely assure t)ur readers, is no philanthropic dream, but is practically recog- nized by the directors of our mercantile policy. The system of prohibition and high duties, so long- in favour with our ancestors, is now renounced, and our Board of Trade has, during the last eight years, acted on the conviction that the increase of our wealth is, in a great measure, dependent on the increase of that of our neighbours. Further, if we pass in review our mercantile history during the wai-, and discriminate the gain and loss of particular V 2 929^ Effect of the late Wars on PropctHi/, , classes, we shall find that the change of circum- stances since the peace has, in general, been sucli as to constitute a fair retribution to those who had either benefited or suffered by fluctuation. Annui- tants have been relieved from their long depression, and now find their income restored, or nearly re- stored, to its former value. Of our countrymen at present in a state of suffering, we may be permitted to remark that they belong in general to the classes whose gains were greatest during the war ; a re- mark made without the slightest intention of weak- ening their claim to relief j since not humanity only, but the public interest (see the chapter on Agri- culture, p. 142.) calls on us to prevent their farther depression. And we have adverted to their case merely to show the transient and unsubstantial nature of gains derived from a state of war ; — the frightful recoil to be apprehended by those who imagine that in them they have found a source of permanent advantage. The result, therefore, is, that the late war, so long accounted a source of national wealth, in\'olv- ed a sacrifice of property not inferior to the sacri- fice of lives. To this double drain in our resources, what has been the grand counterpoise ? Our pro- gress in the arts of peace : the power of extracting a larger supply of subsistence from our soil ; a larger revenue from our labour and capital. By what criterion are we enabled to compute the amount of the addition thus obtained ? We know of none more satisfactory than a return of the num- bers added to our population and supported by our resources; a subject replete with satisfactory conclu- sions, and which we have already discussed at con- siderable length. At present, without recurring to our arguments on that head, we shall merely ad- Individual and National. 593 vert to a very common, but a very erroneous notion, that " the rapid increase of our numbers in the pre- sent age is to be attributed to the war.*' Whatever may have been the case in regard to the middle classes, the wages of many of the lower orders, particularly those of the country labourer, bore, even when added to tlie poor-rate (see the chapter on Poor-rate, p. ^03.), a smaller proportion to the ex- pense of rearing a family than in peace. Now, as the lower orders form by far the most numerous portion of the nation, and tlie circumstances affecting them are decisive of the general increase of our numbers^ we can by no means join in ascribing the surprising augmentation in the present age to the excitement arising from the w^ar, although that opinion may have (Lord Liverpool's speech, Mai'ch 1822-) the sanction of ministerial authority. It has continued with equal rapidity since the peace, and our rulers may, we believe, trace it with confidence to causes of a cheering and permanent character ; to the effect of vaccination, to the improvement in the lodging, cleanliness, and sobriety of the lower classes. In thus dwelling on the evils of war, our object is not to join with the decided Oppositionists, in lamenting wliat cannot be recalled, or in affixing a general censiu'e on a course of policy, whicJi though reprehensible in some respects, admitted in many others of vindication from the conduct of our enemies ; or of defence, from tlie limited Ibrcsight of hiunan nature. Our purpose is strictly statistical, and our wish is merely to impress on the pubhc a consideration of great im])ortance to tlieir future welfare, viz. that the injury to national j)rosperity resulting from war, however it may be palliated or j)ostponed, is eventually of most serious magnitude, r 3 29 1 mf(^(^t of the lale Wars on Proper! i/. even when, in a military sense, tlie issue oi' the contest lias j)rove(l triumphant. We now proceed to a more enlivening theme, — to a survey of the present state of our pi'oduetive industry, and of the prospect opened to us by a continuance of peace. To our reasoning on this head we shall endeavour to give a definite form by bringing it before the eye of the reader in the shape of arithmetical calculation. We begin our table \yith the year 1813, as the last in which our prices bore the stamp of a state of war. In com- paring this with the present year, we keep in view two important facts. 1. The increase of our population, which, since 1813, is about 15 per cent. 2. The fall in the price of commodities, in other words the reduction of expence, w^iich to most classes w^e compute at 2.5 and to some at 35 per cent. An attention to these facts is indispensable to a correct estimate of our situation : we should other- wise fall into the common error of considering our- selves rich or poor, merely as prices happened to be high or low. The complexity of the following table will, w^e trust, disappear after an attentive examination. s > 596 Effect of the late Wars on Vropert^, The reader, who shall bestow a little time on studying this table, will not, we trust, be lojig in finding his labour repaid, and in making the satis- factory discovery that the decrease of our financial means since the peace is by no means so great as is commonly supposed. Remarks on Col. II. — Interest of Money. — The surplus in the receipts of our monied liffen above their expenditure supplies, is, as is well known, an annual fund for investment, and as there has been of late no opportunity of making loans to our ex- chequer, this surplus has sought a vent in advances to private individuals, or to the French, American, and other foreign governments. We have accord- ingly made in our table a large addition to the estimated amount of interest arising since the peace from such investments. Agriculturists. — Though the increase of number in this class since 1813 has been considerable, and has evidently been accompanied by a corresponding increase of produce, we have declined, for ob- vious reasons, to suppose it productive of increase of income. Tithe. — Here the same objection does not alto- gether hold, tithe not having experienced either so great a rise in war or so great a decline since the peace. Wages. — Under the head of wages, -we have supposed between 200 and -300,000 men with- drawn at the peace from the militia, army, and navy, and have added the amount of their proba- ble earnings, (6,000,000/.), to the head of wages. Individual and National. 297 A corresponding deduction is made under the head of income to individuals in the pubhc ser- vice. The great diminution in tliis branch puts in a striking hght the stagnation attendant on the transition iiom war to peace. Ireland. — The untaxed income of Ireland rests (see Appendix p. 78.) on a very different cal- culation from her taxed income, and must, from the increase in the number of her peasantry, have received a very large augmentation since 1813. Remarks o?i Col. IV. — Reduction of Expence. — We may, perhaps, be charged with making a some- what too large allowance in this respect, the saving compared to 1813 being, in various situations, not yet carried to the extent of 25 per cent. Our answer is, that peace being evidently the policy of our government, tliere is a probability of reduction continuing, and of that which has not taken place in the ])resent year, being accomplished in the next. Farmers, — Amidst all the distress of this re- spectable part of the nation, it is some satisfaction to perceive the large reduction in their disburse for labour and other farming charges. The Lower Orders. — These form so great a por- tion of the connnunity, that we can hardly ad\ert too often or too attentively to their situation. The transition from war to peace bore, doubtless, veiy heavy on ])articular classes, j)rincipally manufac- turers, whose wages were very low at a time when provisions were by no means cheap. Since 1820, however, circumstances have altered greatly in their 298 VS'c^ ofllic late IVars on Propoiij, fiivoiii', tlit3 fall of i)rovi.sions having rendered 22^. a week equivalent, in the j)Owei' of'purcliase, to Si)s. during the war. If this fall was too e 300 IW^ct (ftfie late Wars on Projyertt/y in the value of money; the 65,000,0(XJ/. which we have paid annually since the peace, having formed an amount of equal value with the 80 or 85,000,000/. paid at the close of the war. There was thus no real reduction of our burdens until the present year, and, unfortunately, from the evils of transition, from the sudden diminution in the income of par- ticular classes, our taxes have been found a burden of greater pressure since the peace, than during the 'vvar. Effect on our Public Debt of the Rise in the Value of Money. — We come now to the circumstance in the series of our transitions, whicli, more than any other, has contributed to increase the burden of our taxes. To comprehend this fully, the reader should bear in mind, that government stands per- manently in the capacity of a debtor; that its respon- sibility is represented not in land, houses, or what is technically termed real property, but in money ; and that whatever raises the value of money, increases the pressure of its debt. During the long depreciation of money attendant on the war, the payment of 9 or 10,000,000/. of interest, at the Treasury, required no gi'eater drain on the national resources, than the payment of 7 or 8,000,000/. previous to 1793. This fact, long known to our finance ministers, formed during a time the basis of very confident calculations ; so long as high prices were kept up, so long did our leading men at tlie Treasury and in Parliament imagine, that the pressure of the debt contracted during the war, would be alleviated by the continued deprecia- tion of money. At the peace, indeed, a degree of re-action or rise in the value of money was anticipated; but in the opinion of the public, as of go%^erament, that re-action was likely to Individual and National. ,'301 be slight. Had such proved the case ; had the price of com been kept up both liere and on the Continent, the evils of transition would have been comparatively slight, and our national bur- dens would have been less severely felt. Their pressure would ha\'e gradually decreased as our numbers augmented, and we might have con- sidered the expence of the contest as in a great measure liquidated from two sources, — the extra profits of labour and capital which had supplied our war taxes, and the depreciation of that money debt, which represented the undischarged burden. But all such calculations were disappointed : re- action took place on a large scale ; and without experiencing any direct increase of charge, the public were subjected to serious embarrassment from the general diminution of the sums paid for rent, salaries, wages, in short, for almost every thing except the income of annuitants. Has this increase of burden been accompanied by any circumstances of alleviation ? In })rivate life we have for some time experienced relief from the reduction of our exi)enditure ; but what is tiie situation of government ? It feels the pressure on more than two-thirds of its disburse ; the benefit on less than one-third. The former consist of interest of debt, military and naval pay, pensions, half-pay, sahiries, and retirement allowances, all of a fixed amount in money, and all virtually iiicreascd as the price of commodities has fallen. On the other hand, a reduction of government charge from the fall of prices, was, till very latel}', ex))e- rienced only in the victualling of our navy, the purchase of stores, and in a portion of the miscel- laneous services. These discoveries may be said to c:onstiUite the 30^^ yV/r- lali' Jl'ars ; denoiiemcnl of the iiiyst(M*ioiis financial drama that has been actinp,- chning- the last thirty years. Our power of ])ccuniary contribution, so often and so Joudly ascribed to generosity in the sacrifice of our wealtli, may now be, in a great measure, traced to causes of a huml)ler cliaractcr ; to an increase of our productive industry, founded on loans, and to a great, but temporary rise of prices. Both of these remarkable features in our situation were expected to be permanent ; but the I'ise of prices lias disappeared, and to the extension of our productive industry, circumstances were long un- favourable. Add to this, that though from the time of the overthrow of Bonaparte, the prospect of continued peace produced a radical change in our situation, our ministers w ere tardy in bringing for- ward any measure of finance founded on that change, or on the confidence with which we may anticipate an increase of our wealth and numbers. In fact, until the present year, we made little pro- gress towards relief, unless we account as such a more correct knowledge of our situation ; a dis- covery of certain errors ; a perception of the tran- sient nature of the aids on which we relied during the first years of peace. Have our public men, since 1793, undei'stood our financial situation ? — After ascertaining the existence of such general misapprehension, it is impossible to avoid asking M'hether several impor- tant circumstances in our situation and prospects have not been unknown to our political guides. Were they aware during the war, that the extension of our productive industry was, in a great degree, Conduct of our Public Men since 179o. 303 artificial, and must tlccline witli that government expenditure whicli called it forth ? Looking to the amount of the interest of our ])ublic debt, of our pensions and othei* fixed payments, did they or did they not foresee that, on the cessation of this artificial stimulus, the natural course of circum- stances would cause a rise in the value of money, and a consequent increase of pressure ? To what degree do these considerations affect the reputation of Mr. Pitt, the leader in that course of j)olicy, which, in a military sense, produced so brilliant a result, — in a financial, so nnich embarrassment? That Mr. Pitt was at first averse from the war with France, is apparent, from several circum- stances, whether we refer to the declaration of respectable Avriters*, or to the undeniable fact, that a state of war was altOi>'ether contrarv to his ])lans, for the reduction of our ])ublic burdens. That, after the campaign of 1791' had disclosed the weakness of our allies, and the strenj^th of France, he lamented oiu- involving ourselves in the contest, there seems little rcason to doubt : but when the country was fairly engaged in it, and our resources were called into full activity, it accorded with his confident, and persevering character, to maintain the struggle, in the hope of recovering the Netherlands so unfortunately lost. Hence a continuance of the contest, notwithstanding the defection of our allies and the financial diflicnities of 1797; hence those war taxes, which no odier minister would have ventured to ])roj)ose, and certainly no other would have succeeded in * Nichols' Recollections of George HI. and .1. Allan's Bio- graphical Sketch of Fox, in Napier's Supplement to the Ency- clopaedia Hritannica. page ;J61. 3(H The late IVars ; raising : hence also, our second attack on France by the coalition of 1799. But the perseverance of Mr. Pitt was not blind persistency : on a renewed experience of the weak- ness of our allies, on a proof of the sufferings of the country from heavy taxation and deficient harvests, he felt the expediency of peace, retired from office to facilitate its conclusion, and gave it, when not responsible for its conditions, a sanction imequivocal and sincere. His ardour in 1803 for the recommencement of war, admits of a less satis- factory solution : it discovered much more the zeal of a combatant, than the discretion of a senator ; a disposition to sink the admonitory recollections of our late struggle in ardour for a new contest. He warned us once in Parliament of the magnitude of the expense, and of the necessity of ])reparing our- selves for sacrifices greater than before ; but his caution was general and cursory, unaccompanied by any private admonition to the inexperienced ministry of the day, or any advice to delay hosti- lities, until circumstances should give us an assu- rance of co-operation on the part of the great powers of the Continent. His last great measure, the attack on France by the coalition of 1805, was, doubtless, on the whole, injudicious, prepon- derant as France then was in military strength, the whole under the guidance of a single head. Still it may be added t]iat it is by no means uncommon with men of ability to fall into the miscalculation made by Mr. Pitt on that occasion ; and to anti- cipate, as a matter of course, judicious conduct on the part of their coadjutors. Every impartial man must allow, that it would have been carrying mistrust to an extreme, to have apprehended the commission of faults so gross as those which led to Conduct ofourjmblic Men since 1793. 305 the disasters of" Ulm and Aiisterlitz. And those who are surprised that a man of talent should misplace his confidence, or should calculate on others acting with the discrimination natural to himself, will be at no loss to find similar examples in the conduct of the most eminent men of the age: in that of Lord Wellington, when he expected dis- cretion from Blucher ; and in that of Bonaparte, when he allowed the command of Spain to remain in the hands of Jourdan ; or when, at a subsequent date, he committed that of his main body at AVaterloo, to Ney. Since the distress that has followed the peace of 1814, it has been publicly said, that the embarrass- ment likely to ensue to our productive industry on the cessation of the war expenditure of govern- ment, had not escaped the foresight of Mr. Pitt. Such assertions are often made loosely and in- accurately ; but the one in question seems to rest on probable grounds. Mr. Pitt was no stranger to the limited produce of our revenue in peace; he had felt the financial difficulties of the first years of the contest, and the surprising relief afforded to the Treasury by the imposition of war taxes. He could thus hardly fail to be aware that the spring given to our national industry was, in a great measure, artificial ; still less could he be un- conscious of the ultimately injurious operation of loans and taxes when carried to an extreme. Nor is it incompatible with such impressions, that he should for a time have overlooked the inferences which they seem so naturally to suggest, and have been hurried along by ardour in the contest, by an earnestness to obtain a present advantige at the hazard of a future burden. It is not when en- gaged in the bustle of business, that the mind is 30C) The Uitc Wars ; capable of reposing on itself, of meditating, pa- tiently and impartially, the result of iavourite measures. How few plans of remote operation, of a nature that requires continued thought in the combination or length of time in the execution, originate with men in office ! Add to this that the great evils of our financial system, the depreciation of our bank paper, the extreme pressure of taxa- tion took place not only after Mr. Pitt's death, but, in some measure, in consequence of a devia- tion from his principles. Never would he have given his sanction to such a measure as our Orders in council ; or if, for the sake of argument, we suppose him to have been led, by urgency or by plausible argument, to their adoption, will any one maintain that he would have been likely to persist in so absurd a course during four years, until it, in a manner, drove the Americans to the alterna- tive of war — a war carried on between us and our best customers — a war in which it was appa- rent that injury to our opponents must be almost as pernicious to our national industry, as injury to ourselves. The responsibility of a great part of our exist- ing biu'den, is thus transferred from j\Ir. Pitt to his successors, of whose measures, in regard to neutrals, from September, I8O7, to May, 181 !2, it would be difficult to give a satisfactory explanation. They imphed a total unconsciousness of the pre- carious state of our paper currency, and, in regard to trade, either a disavowal of principles generally , admitted, or a readiness to infringe those princi- ples for temporary purposes — purposes that could have no decisive effect on the result of the grand struggle with France. In 1812 began a different aera : our Orders in council were withdiawn ; peace 10 Conduct of our jmhlic Men since 1793. 307 was repeatedly offered to the United States of America ; and, at a subsequent date, no harsh treaty of commerce was imposed on France in the day of her adversity. Add to this, that since the peace, no attempt has been made to give a falla- cious prop, ])y bounties or prohibitions, to any of our suffering interests. Admirable rules of con- duct these, and yet in regard to our finances, we must repeat, that ministers have not been prompt in rendering the national resources instrumental to the national relief! Their fault appears to have lain, not as is usual with governments, in inter- fering with the course of productive industry, but either in deficient foresight in regard to the changes occurring in our situation, or in deficient vi- gour in acting on such changes. Take for ex- ample the rise in the value of money, a natural consequence of a return to a pacific system, and one which, with some temporary exceptions, has been regularly gaining ground since 1814. Would Mr. Pitt, had his life been prolonged, have delayed until the ninth year of peace a reduction of public salaries, an ada])tation of government payments to the augmented value of the money in which these payments were made ? Is it not more likely that he would have long shice anticipated the result of the general change, and have given, in his own case, a decided example of what he would have exacted from others? Farthcj-, is it probable that in peace he would have adheied blindly to the financial routine pursued during the war, without attempting some measure, ibunded on the circumstances that have predominated in our situation since 1814, — the reducetl interest of money, and the prospect of long continued peace, in consequence of the conviction amuially gaining X -2 .■^OS The Idle Wars ; ground that a state of" war is as contrary to policy as to humanity, and, from our growing power, far less necessary for defence than when France was so preponderant? If ministers are open to the charge of deficient vigour in finance, in what manner can tlie im])ar- tial reasoner characterize the conduct of their })ar- liamentary opponents ? On their part there existed no motive for reserve, in regard to pubhc distress; no dread of disseminating alarm, by the proposi- tion of change ; yet the investigations of most of the Opposition members have been confined to in- sulated points, their objections to specific grants. Where, in the long list of those who opposed the war, did we find a speaker capable of giving the House or the country a distinct conception of the operation of our augmented expenditure ; of the temporary nature of the activity caused by it dur- ing war ; of the unfortunate re-action to be appre- hended at a peace ? Where, on the part of those who have combated the measures of ministers since the peace, do we find a comprehensive view of our national means, the suggestion of any mea- sure of a new or of a general character, adapted to our present circumstances ? To what shall we ascribe this deficiency of resource, this scanty measure of statistical knowledge on both sides of the House ? To a cause to which we have owed no small share of our political disappointments in the present age — an education on the part of our representatives very little suited to their functions as men of business. This topic has a claim to our attentive examination, for by nothing has the situ- ation of the public during the present age, been more materially affected. Educalion of our public Men. 309 Education of our public iVf^w.— The course of study followed m this country, in the case of young men destined for public life, is remarkable as in- dicative of the tenacity with whicli established usages maintain their ground. Previous to the 17th century, the acquisition of Latin was indis- pensable to a polite education, no modern language being in these days a depository of elegant learn- ing, or a received medium for the correspondence of either men of letters or diplomatists. It is thus tliat we are to account for the interchange of voluminous epistles in Latin, between the scholars of Italy, Germany, France, and England, as well as for the study of the classical languages by fe- males of rank, as was exemplified in the case of Queen Elizabeth, of Lady Jane Grey, and of the daughters of Sir Thomas More. The colleges added in these days to our universities, were natu- rally confined to the branches of literature famihar to the founders ; and in no part of Euroj)e has this limitation been more strictly maintained, or the changes suggested by modern discoveries been less adopted, tlian at Oxford and Cambridge, ii' academical cliairs have been provided for cliemis- try, for moral oj- for natural philosopliy, an ad- herence to the established usage of these seminaries has prevented their being generally attended, and continues to confine the labours of our youth (o mathematical and classical ])ursuits, to which alone, are awarded honours at the public examinations. The study of mathematics has obviously little connexion with the business of life, or with tin- intended profession of nine-tenths of those who pursue it. The evidence by which the inferences of the student are there guided, is of a nature al- together different iVom that which he will be ealleil X S .':{1() The late Wars ; on to wcigli in iiis intercourse with the worki, in the transaction of business, in the discrimination of character. On this we shall not enlarge, as it will, of course, be readily admitted, and the defence of the study made to rest on its *' tendency to improve the reasoning powers of youth :'* but would it not, we may ask, be practicable to attain equal im- provement in that respect by directing their la- bours to subjects connected with their future occupation ? Taking for example young men in- tended for public life, would it not be preferable to seek an exercise for their intellect in the history of our country as related by Hume, or in the con- clusions of political economy as exhibited in the writings of Smith or Say ? By liistory they woidd be introduced to a knowledge of characters, such as they are likely to meet on the stage of life ; while political economy would lead them to the examin- ation of subjects which they wdll be called on to discuss, and which they will find as yet very im- perfectly understood. In regard to impressions of a higher kind, the tendency of these studies to convey liberal views, to prove the connection be- tween the justice of a government and the wel- fare of its subjects, between the course of public events and the ordination of Providence, we have, we trust, said enough in a prececUng paragraph of this chapter. Classical erudition, says an elegant wTiter*, is by the custom of England more pecidiarly called learning ; and we admit that in education, its claim to attention is powerful, even when we keep out of view its fascinating appeals to the imagination, and * Sir James Mackintosh on the character of Fox, in tjie collection by Dr. Parr, under the name of Philopatris Varvi- censis. Education of our public Men. 311 are content to contemplate it with a mere reference to utility. The record of instructive facts, the delineation of character, the illustration of the rides of composition, the exemplification of the finest precepts, all belong to the writers of Greece and Rome, and warn us to beware of neglecting to cultivate that grateful soil. Of this we are so fully satisfied, that our doubts are confined to the time requisite to acquire a knowledge of the critical niceties of the languages, and to the question whether we ought not, in most cases, to be satisfied with that progress which enables us to comprehend, with tolerable accuracy, the sense of a writer. And here, fortunately, the line of chstinction seems to admit of being traced with considerable confi- dence. By the youth intended for an active pursuit, for the bar, the pulpit, or the senate, philological researches need hardly be carried furtlier than is necessary to enable him to understand the meaning of an author, while a more minute and scrupulous investigation is incumbent on him who directs his labours to the instruction of others, or cultivates literature in retirement with all the advantaixe of the command of time. But why, it may be said, cannot the two be combined by persons intended for active professions ? To do so would, we apprehend, be to underrate the sacrifice of time indispensable to the attainment of thorough knowledge, and to lose sight of the scrupulous care with which the eight or ten years, in general allow'cd for education, nuist be appropriated, if we mean to avoid the frequent error of misapplying our labour, of undertaking studies which we may be unable to follow up. Condiicl of public AJJairs since 179-'>. — Let iis proceed to make a brief application of these re- marks to the statesmen of the present age ; to the X 4 312 "The late Wars ; men who guided our councils in tiic stormy j)eriod of the French revolution. How different, in all probability, would have been the course of their policy had their early impressions partaken more of the light to be derived from the study of recent periods of history, from an attentive observation of foreign countries. Had they possessed a more accurate knowledge of the national character of the French, of the degree in which the invidious distinc- tion between the titled and untitled classes was kept up,of the circumstances which rendered a revolution as much the wish of the majority of the nation as it was in this country in 1688, our ministers would have known with how much qualification the decla- mations of Burke, and the assertions of the emigrants were to be received. In regard to this country, they would probably have discovered that the support of the middle and upper classes afforded a sufficient safeguard against the danger of innovation without resorting to the alternative of war. Or, supposing that after the loss of the Netherlands in 1792, and the alarm given to our sovereign and our nobility by the violence of the Jacobins, it became impos- sible to avoid an appeal to arms, how different, with the know^ledge we have supposed in our political guides, Avould have been the conduct of the war? Had they been aware of the backward state of tlie countries, in particular Austria, on which we relied for military co-operation, of that blind adherence to old usage, that deference to family rank and court influence, which clogged the wheels of go- vernment and restrained the energy of the people, is it likely that our ministers would ha\e counselled an offensive course against a nation emancipated from those fetters, and which conferred its appoint- Educal'wn of our public Men. 313 merits, whether civil or iniHtary, by very different rules ? If from foreign affairs we turn to our interior situation, is it likely, we may ask, that, with a thorough knowledge of the principles of productive industry, our ministers would have been so deluded by appearances as to mistake a rise in the })rice of commodities for. an increase of national wealth, or to imagine that war could, under any circumstances, be conducive to commercial prosperity ? Had they studied the lesson to be learned in the history of Holland, and, in some degree, in our own, (since intervals of stagnation have followed almost every war since the revolution,) our public men Mould have anticipated a reaction at a peace, and have carefully circumscribed their expenditure during the war. If we examine the discussions that have from time to time taken place on one very material question, — the state of our currency, — we shall hnd the speeches of our leading men indicate little more than an elementary knowledge of the subject. These discussions began in 1810, when if we could not resume cash payments, we miglit ha\ e desisted from our measures against neutral navigation ; but the degree to which the restraint imposed on that navigation affected the credit of our bank paper was unknown to parliament-, and inadequately felt by the Cabinet. Nothing consequently was done ; and, when at a subsequent date, and under \qv\ different circumstances, we mean in ISl'J, parlia- ment did interfere with the currency, the measure was ill-timed, and tended, if not to aggra\ate the evil, to mislead tiie public in regard to its cause. After all these examples of error, does it seem necessary to add that the labours of our ])ubhi 3li< Tlic Idle Wars. men ought to be modelled on a new plan ? To gi\ c a cursory attention to a multiplicity of topics, leads to a knowledge very little beyond that of first im- pressions : to obtain a satisfactory conviction, to place our opinions on a firm basis, it is indispensable to make a selection, to restrict the objects of en- quiry, and to give a long continuance to our research and reflection on the prescribed themes. Looking round in private life, and extending our view to men of eminence generally, commercial as well as professional, what else tlian this limitation of object and perseverance in pursuit, do we find to form the basis of such characters, and to distinguish them from the credulous multitude, from those who listen with ready acquiescence to every plausible assertion ? If the habits of our representatives are different, if they unfortunately betray the absence of such discrimination and perseverance, ought it to be matter of surprise, that delusion should have prevailed among them during so many years : that a temporary rise of prices and increase of activity, should have been mistaken for a permanent aug- mentation of national wealth ; and that the unwel- come discoveries of late years, the Jinale of which is no less than a suspension of their incomes, should have come on them by surprise ? 315 CHAP. X. Value of Moneij. iSPXTION I. Fliutuatiun in the Value of Moniy or in the Price of Commodities. 1 HE fluctuation in prices consequent on the great political transitions of the age, has been already discussed in our second chapter : at present our object is to pursue the same inquiry on a more comprehensive plan, and to carry back our views to changes that have taken place in former ages. Changes of this nature rank among the most in- teresting subjects of inquiry in political economy. To the reader of history, a knowledge of them is indispensable to the formation of a correct es- timate of the price of labour, of" tlie public revenue, and of the comparative wealth of a nation at dif- ferent periods ; while, in a practical view, an ac- quaintance with this subject is of very serious interest, as connected with the future value of bequests, leases, and time-contracts generally. The discussion naturally divides itself into the ibllowing heads : — The tendency of prices to fluctuate. The impracticability of foreseeing or })reventing such fluctuation. A plan for lessening its injurious operation. 316 Fliichcatioii in llw Value (jf Moiiey. Fuhlications on the Flucliialion of Prices. — The tlocuments for forming an estimate of these changes, have as yet been given to us scantily and im})er- fectly, the subject never having engaged the atten- tion of government, and but lately that of any of our public bodies. In France, a country little remarked for statistical research, the attempts hitherto made to compare the rate of prices at dif- ferent periods have been confined to a few literary men : in England, one of the earliest was that of Bishop Fleetwood, who collected prices of wheat during a number of years from the 13th to the 17th century, and reduced them to money of our present standard. His labours, published in I707, formed the chief materials for the reasonings of Dr. Smith, whose life was not prolonged until the publication (in 1797) of a very valuable addition to such collections by Sir Frederick Eden, in his work on the " State of the Poor," the copious ma- terials of which have been termed iijb?is perennis for succeeding inquirers. In 1798 there appeared in the Transactions of the Royal Society, a tabular statement by Sir George Shuckburgh, which, from the clearness of its form (See Appendix), and the confidence of its deduc- tions, obtained much more credit than it deserved, being far from correct, even in the fundamental points. In 1811, the late Arthur Young, alarmed at the impression made on the public by the Report of the Bullion Committee, and dreading a con- traction of paper currency attended by a fall in the price of agricultural produce, entered into re- searches of great extent, both as to the past and current prices of commodities, and published tlie whole in a pamphlet, entitled " An Inquiry into the Progressive Value of Money in England.*' 9 Fluctuation in the Value of Money. 81 7 This tract, however inaccurate in a theoretical sense, has a claim to attention, as well for the value of its materials, as for a correction of the mistakes of Sir George Shuckhurgh. Since 1811, serious beyond example as has been the fluctuation of our prices, there has appeared no treatise of con- sequence on the su])ject until Mr. Tooke's valuable publication on " High and Low Prices since 1792.'* Historical Skctcli of the Fluctuation of Prices. — It is a prevalent notion that the money prices of commodities have been progressively rising since the Norman conquest, or even since the earliei* period, when the luxury of Rome, and the revenue paid to it by tributary provinces, disappeared be- fore its rude invaders from the north and east. To this opinion, however, there are several strong objections. Tiie supply of gold and silver from the mines, was, during the middle ages, scanty and precarious ; while the numbers of the society re- quiring the use of the precious metals, in other words, the population of the west and central part of Europe, were, in some degree, in a state of increase. Dr. Smith, reasoning on the i)rice ol' commodities generally, from the price of corn, and foundinjr his view of the latter on the collections of Bishop Fleetwood, assumes, that from the year 1200 to 1550, there was no considerable rise of prices ; and that such rise did not begin till the reign of Elizabeth, the time when the American mines became productive on a large scale. The import from that quarter, small as it would a})pear in the present age, was sensibly telt at a time when silver was very little used in manufiictuio, and not largely in plate : its amount was, uniler such cir- cumstances, almost wholly added to the circulating ;>18 Ftuctuat'ion in the Value of Moneij. medium of Europe. This addition was considered by Dr. Sniitli the main cause of* the rise of ])rices which continued until towards the year 1(3,50, wlien, from circumstances on which we shall enlarge pre- sently, prices ceased to rise, and became either stationary or declining. This state of things lasted until ly^'i'j when, as is well known, a new ajra commenced and continued until 1814. Effect of a State of War. — Dr. Smith's view of the progressive value of money is admitted by Mr. Young, but neither of these writers has thought of tracing a correspondence between the fluctuations in the precious metals in the l6th and 17th centuries, and the political transactions of Europe. A state of war tends, as we have showni in a preceding chapter, greatly to advance prices, and the rise in the reign of Elizabetli may, in no inconsiderable degree, be ascribed to the increase of military establishments in that age, to our de- fensive attitude against Philip II., to the obstinate contest carried on between him and his insurgent subjects in the Netherlands, to the ci\dl wars of France, and to the troubled state of Germany. On the other hand, after the treaty of Westphalia, the chief part of Europe enjoyed tranquillity, and the effect on trade and agriculture, of reduced armies and diminished taxes, is described by Sir W. Temple, in a manner that strikingly resembles the state of this country and the Continent since the late peace. This political change accounts for the decline of prices that prevailed after 16.50, but the applica- tion of our theory is, it must be allowed, less clear after 167^, when war was renewed on a great scale, and continued, with comparatively little in- termission, during forty years. Add to this, that Fluctuation in t)ie lvalue of Money. 319 there took place, during all that time, an import of specie from America, to an extent somewhat in- creased ; viz. to the amount of three, four, or five millions, annually. In what manner, under the operation of this double cause of enhancement, are we to account for prices experiencing no great or permanent rise? Perhaps by the following considerations : — 1. An increased use of the precious metals, in plate, manufactures, and ornaments, in conse- quence of the general increase of wealth. 2. An augmented export of them to the eastern w^orld, chiefly through the means of the Dutch East India Company. 3. The fact, that previous to I672, the supply of agricultural produce in England, as in the north- west of Europe generally, had become somewhat more than equal to the consumption ; an excess of which the effects are generally felt for a long series of years. The peace of Utrecht was the commencement of a period of general tranquillity ; government expenditure was reduced, labourers were restored to agriculture, and the decline of prices became general and progressive. In vain did our land- holders look to the bounty on the export of corn, for a counteraction of the fall in the market: they exported largel}', and received premiums on a liberal scale, but their abundant growth kept down the home market, and the excess of sup})ly over consumption continued during half a century, ter- minating only in 176k Nor is it at all j)iobable that it would have ceased at that time, peace hav- ing been but lately concluded, had we not had a succession of indifferent seasons : these raised 320 Fliicluation in the Value oj Money. prices, ami the contest that ensued with our colo- nies, prevented their fall. After 1783, the restoration oi' peace tended, naturally, to reduce prices, hut its effect was retarded hy several causes, in particular, the de- mand of hands for our manufactures, and the occasional occurrence of indifferent seasons. After 1792, the progress of enhancement was accelerated in an unexampled degree hy the general state of war consequent on the French revolution. A rise of prices progressive during twenty years, and amounting at last to more than fiO per cent, ahove those of 1792, overturned time-contracts through- out the kingdom, depressing annuitants while it raised tenants on lease, with various other classes, above their former station, — an elevation, unfor- tunately, of short duration, since they ha\e been made to descend from it with still more rapidity in the years that have followed the peace. Can such Fluctuations be foreseen or prevented ? — After this summary of facts in regard to the past, the next and still more important point is to ascertain how far such fluctuations are likely to continue. But here the most indefatigable in- quirer will find the result uncertain, and be obliged to admit, that in so complicated a question, all that we can do with confidence, is to state the arguments on either side. Those in favour of the rise of prices, are, The contingency of war. The probable increase of the produce of the mines, from the application of steam-engines and other improved machinery. The farther substitution of bank paper for me- tallic (Murencv ; a substitution, which, in its ge- Fluchiat'nm in the Value of Money. .1^1 Hcral (though not in its local) effect, operates like the increased productiveness of a mine.* On the other hand, the arguments for the fall of prices are equally substantial ; viz. The tendency of all improvements in productive industry, whether in agriculture, maiuiiacture, mechanics, or navigation, to produce cheaj)ness. The increasing demand for the precious metals, ti'om the increasing population of the civihzcd world. As to England in particular, tlie tendency of a country where prices are higher than in the neigh- bouring states, to approximate (see p. 32.5), by commercial intercourse, to the standard of other countries. Supplij of Specie from the Mines. — The amount of specie extracted annually from American mines, was computed in 17(^>0, at (),000,UUU/. sterling : in the course of the succeeding twenty years, it hail increased to fully 7,000,000/., and some time after (Appendix to the Bullion Report of 1810) to 8,000,000/. In this, as in other res))ects, Mexico is by far the foremost of the Spanish colonies, the yearly ])roduce of lier mines being nearly hve mil- lions sterling, while that of the rest of Sj)anish America may be estimated at three millions more. Adding to these, somewhat less than a million sterlino- for Portucfucse America, and somewhat more than another million for the mines of our own hemisphere, we make a total of neaily li-n millions annually added to the stock of the piccions • Our niLMition of bank paper must always be understoocl as o'C bank notes payable in cash : a resort to non-convertible paper will, we take lor granted, be henceforth excluded from our finnncja! creed. 322 Fluctuatiun in the Value of Money. metals tlirougliout the world. From this, however, is to be made, both at present and for some time back, a deduction on account of the political troubles of Spanish America: still the importation is on a large scale, and would speedily produce depreciation, were not the demands of the civilized world on the increase. Consumption of Specie. — The demands for the produce of the mines, arise from various causes, of which the greatest, by far, is the annual con- sumption of it for plate, watches, gilding, and ornamental manufacture, generally. The amount of this admits of no satisfactory calculation, but is probably (Appendix, p. [89]) not far short of two- thirds of the total produce of the mines. Next comes the demand for coin : the currency of al- most all the Continent of Europe is metallic, and an annual supply is requisite, partly to make good accidental loss or the effect of wear, partly to meet the increase of population. This, though not large, may, when joined to the annual export of specie to India and China, (to say little of losses arising from shipwreck or hoarding), account for the absorption of the remaining third of the pro- duce of the mines. What then appears to be the general result ? That in ordinary times these va- rious sources of demand are equal, or nearly equal, to the amount supplied from the mines ; but that for some years back (since 1818), they appear to have been more than equal, in consequence of the extra-demand for gold on the part of the banks of this country, Russia, and Austria, for the purpose of substituting a metallic for a paper currency. Dr. Smith, in adverting to the future supply of specie from the mines, considered it an equal chance that old mines may become exhausted, as that new mines may be discovered, or the produce Fluctuation in the Value of Money. SQS of the old increased. Without contesting the ac- curacy of this opinion in his age, it mW hardly be doubted, that since the discovery of the powers of steam, the a])plication of improved machinery to the existing mines, would be productive of a very considerable extension of produce ; but whether, or in what time, it will be carried so far as to lower materially the value of specie, it appears in xain to conjecturc. Circulation of Bank Paper. — -Our countrymen, accustomed during more than half a century to the use of bank notes, hav^e observed, with some surprise, that a currency so cheap, and apparently so easy of introduction, should, as yet, be hardly known on the Continent. The bank of France, though of undoubted stability, has found it prac- ticable to establish branches in very few of the provincial towns : several, containing a popula- tion of 40,000 and upwards, are still without such branches ; and there is not a private bank of circu- lation in the whole country. The causes are, the distrust excited by the recollection of the assignats, the want of confidence in government, the absence of commercial enterprise, as well as of the habits of care and arrangement, which are indispensable to success in a line of itself less profitable than is commonly imagined. Holland, with all her com- mercial improvements, has never adopted the bank- note system, while in Austria, Russia, and Sweden, the paper circulated is a forced government cur- rency, not convertible into cash. The obstacles to the circulation of bank paper on the Continent, might })crliaps have yielded to the effects of peace and augmented trade, but they have been strengthened of late Y 2 :^Q4> Find uati 011 in the Value of Money, years, by tlie increased facility of ibrgery. It would thus be vain to calculate on the extended use of bank paper, or on any effect likely to arise from it in regard to the value of the precious metals. Supply of Agricultural Produce. — Though corn is so liable to fluctuation, as well from difference of seasons, as from the occurrence of peace or war, it is remarkable that a character of rise or fall when once stamped on a period, is found to pre- vail during a considerable time. Thus, the rise of price begun in the early part of the reign of Eliza- beth, continued, with only occasional intermissions to lG50, not far short of a hundred years. At that time began an a^ra of stationary, and, in some de- gree, of decreasing prices, which, with temporary suspensions during the indifferent seasons and ex- pensive wars of the reigns of William and Anne, continued until 1764. From that year until 1814, we had no less than fifty years of brisk demand and high prices ; while at present, as far as can be judged from appearances, either in England or on the Continent, we are entering on a period similar to that which followed 1650 or 1713, — a period when our growth being somewhat more than ade- quate to the demand, the market long continued heavy, and prices, in a great measure, stationary. In what circumstances are we to look for the cause of a stagnation continuing during so long a period as half a century? In the investment of capital and labour in agriculture, to an extent pro- ductive of a surplus growth ; and in the fact, that, as in the natural course of things, the producers increase in the same proportion as the consumers, the disproportion continues, year after year, until FhictiuU'ton in I he Value ojMonei/. 3^5 the occurrence of some great national change, such- as a war, or the direction of an extra portion of labour to nnuuii'acturcs. To return to the more immediate object oi" our enquiry — the effect of the cost of corn on prices generally. This effect is of the greatest import- ance, botii as corn is the chief object of family consinnption, and as it regulates, in a great mea- sure, that other main constituent of prices, the rate of labour. Since 18M<, and more particularly since 18iy, the operation of the corn market has tended to reduce prices, by gradually extending to other articles the reduction that has taken place in agri- cultural produce. Nor does this tendency seem likely to alter : part of our taxes on agriculture are reduced ; the effect of the remainder is, as we have shewn in a preceding chapter, considerably over- rated ; and the charges of tillage bid fair to return to a standard little higher than that of 179'2. Such is also the prospect in France and the Continent at large ; a state of peace reducing the cost of labour, and preventing, in consecpience, any per- manent rise of prices in the corn market. Effect of Conthwnlal Prices on those of England, — In the case of two countries enjoying peace and the benefit of commercial intercourse, there is a perpetual tendency to equality of price. The rea- sons are obvious ; there exists a direct motive for emigrating from the dearer country, ami for making in the cheaper, articles for importation, whether open or clandestine, into the dearer. In the latter, the rate of interest is generally lower, and allbrds a temptation to send out of it funded and other mo- nied property. The operation oi" these causes,. 3'l(j Fluctuation in the Value of Monctj. steady, though almost unseen, has been a main reason of the fall in our prices since ISII-. War; Mode of its Operation, — Of the effect of war there can be no doubt ; it enhances com- modities in various ways : — First, by the addition of a tax to the price of an article ; next by a gene- ral rise in labour from the demand for men for government service, whether in the field or in the preparation of clothing, arms, and other M^arlike stores ; and, lastly, by the interruption of interna- tional intercourse, and the increased charge of transport. If in the l6th and lyth centuries these causes had a serious operation on prices, their effect was greatly increased by the adoption of the funding system, since which, the scale of military expenditure has been enlarged in every country of Europe. What, in this respect, was the situation of France during the reign of Bonaparte ? His unsettled government and personal want of credit, dis- couraged loans, and diminished one great source of expenditure ; nor was his power displayed with much effect in the imposition of additional taxes. But the demand of men for his service, was on a large scale, and, without the operation of either paper-currency or war taxes, prices in France rose between 1792 and 1814, about 30 per cent. From this important fact we may form some idea of the effect of a new war on the price of commodities in England, without supposing a repetition of extreme measures, such as an exemption from cash pay- ments, or the stoppage of neutral navigation. Even in a mitigated form, the effect of war on prices would be so decisive as to counteract, in the coiurse of a few years, the operation of almost 20 Fluctuation in the Value of Money, STf all the causes of reduction. On this, however, we forbear to dwell, because the advantages of peace are now better understood, and a recurrence to a state of hostihty, to that state which subverts tlie calcidations of the governor, as it destroys the hap- piness of the governed, will be less and less fre- quent, as sovereigns become aware that the field of combat presents only barren glories. The arguments for the rise, as for the fall of prices, are thus of great weiglit, antl no question, it is evident, can be more complicated, or present a longer catalogue of opposing causes. On the one hand, what a prospect of fall is held out by the application of improved machinery to the American mines, and the introduction of bank paper on the Continent of Europe ! On the other, what a counterpoise from the prospect of increased popu- lation or the recurrence of a state of war 1 To attempt to strike a balance between these contend- ing causes, to advance an opinion in regard to future probability, would be vain : all wc can pro- nounce, is, \\\2i\. jluctuation in the value of money cannot he 'prevented ; that it can hardly fail to re- cur on any great political transition ; and that a measure which should put an end to uncertainty in time contracts, woidd relieve us from a great national evil. Injurious Effect of Fluctuatio7i in the Value of Money. — Money, as Dr. Smith remarks, (Book I. Chap. V.) is, in buying and selhng, an unexception- able measure of value j and in a contract from year to year, it is, in general, a safe measure ; but in a contract of long duration it is far otherwise. How great was the depreciation of money during the late .'^-28 FIkcI nation in (he Value of M one if. wars; and notvvitiistandiiig the various disadvan- ta£i;c.s attendant on landed property, liow ^vhen the 3 per cents, sunk to the unexampled low rate of 47. It was then that our minister felt the neces- sity of altering his financial plan, of lessening loans and augmenting taxes : he came forward accord- ingly witli the bold proposition of raising a large proportion of the supplies within the year ; a course which, alarmed as the nation was at the aggran- dizement of France, obtained general concurrence, and soon received a consolidated form by the im- position of the income or property-tax. In consequence of this decided measure, and of the splendid success of our continental allies in 1799, our stocks revived, hut they fell towai'ds the close of the year, when the fickle Paul forsook the Measures since 1815. 351 coalition, and Bonaparte, arriving from Egypt, gave new vigour to the resources of France. Large loans became again indispensable, and our funds continued comparatively low, until the signature of the preliminaries in October 1801. That event had a tendency to reinstate them, but the peace was too short and too doubtful to admit of any great rise. JVarqf 1803. — On the renewal of war in 1803, the 3 per cents, fell from "JO to 57, and during some time, the general dread of invasion kept them at a very low rate. War taxes, however, were cheerfully submitted to, and in the succeed- ing years (1805, (i, 70' these potent auxiliaries enabled government to lessen the loans, and to raise the three per cents, to ()0 and upwards. The same cause explains their continued higli price in 1808, a year of commercial distress, anil in 1809, a season of general over-trading. Nor was it till the multi])lied bankruptcies of 1810, and the heavy drain of monoy ibr the peninsular war, that the fall became considerable. Large loans were now unavoidable, and stocks were lowered not only in 181'2, a year of chequered i(:)rtune to our arms, but during part of 1813, when our prospects were equally cheering in Spain and (iermany. At last the balance inclined to the lavourable side : the victory of Leipsic, and the evident superiority of the allies, outweighed the demands of our Treasiny, enormous as they had become. From 1815 to 18^^2. — In the early part of 1815 the 3 per cents were fluctuating Irom &1 to (»."), when the retiu'ii of Bonaparte from Klba, \no- duced a very sudden reduction. In llii- contest that ensued, government were unluckily obliged to contract for a loan early in June, and were thus 352 Our Finances ; (U'j)rivo(l of" tho benefit of tlie rise which imme- diately ioUowcd the success of" our arms, lii 1816, peace was consolidated, but the price of commodi- ties experienced a great fall, and mucli distress prevailing in both trade and agriculture, tlie funds recovered very slowly. In I8I7, appearances im- proved, and in the early part of 1818 the 3 per cents, having risen above 80, our prospect became very encouraging. Unfortunately the rise was not of long duration : the mismanagement of the French loan, the over-trading in this country, the distress of the United States of America, all con- curred to depress the funds. They continued low during the two years from the summer of 1819 to that of 1821, after wliich, they gradually im- proved so as to enable ministers to carry into effect an important and long contemplated oper- ation. * Reduction of the Five per Cents. — The five per cents, comprised a sum, which in round numbers we shall call 140,000,000/., and which government were at any time at liberty to pay off, by giving 100/. in cash for 100/. in stock. How then, it may be asked, did it happen that the discharge was delayed so long after the peace ? Because the * Average Prices of the 3 per Cent. Consols during the fol- lowing years ; — 1803 70,57,53. 1813 58, 57, GO, 61. 1804- 55,56,5S. 1814 64-, 66, 64. 1805 56,58,60. 1815 65, after Mar. 58, 60. 1806 60,62,6+. 1 1816 60,62,63. 1807 61,62,64-. j 1817 63,70,75,83. 1808 62, 64, 66, 68. 1818 80, 82, 79. 1809 67, 6S, 70. ' 1819 77, 74, 65, 70, 68. 1810 70, 71, 69, 66. \ 1820 68, 69, 70. 1811 65,64,63. 1821 69,72,75,77. 1812 62, 61, 59, 5S. 1822(toAug.)76. 77, 78, 80. Measures since 181.5. 553 discliargc of so large a sum could take place only by the substitution of one security for another ; and as the new fund to be created, would, in most of the years that have elapsed since the peace, have fetched an indiffercni, price, ministers were from time to time obliged to ))ostpone the measure. In the early part of IS 18, circumstances becom- ing favourable, a new stock bearing 3^ per cent, interest, and not reducible below that rate during ten years, was created e\idently for the purpose of supplying the desired substitute. The i)roject, however, failed, in consequence of the general fall of funded property, and there afterwards occurred no favourable opportunity until the beginning of the present year, when, as is well known, the re- duction was very successfully accomplished. There remains open to leduction a farther por- tion of our stock, viz. the old four per cents, which distinguished from the four per cents created in the present year, amount to about 70,000,000/. This sum *^is considerable, but in other respects the question of reduction stands on very doubtful grounds. The saving of a half per cent, in the interest would give only about 300,000/. clear, and it seems very doul)tful at what period tlie course of circumstances will admit of even that diminution. Our otJicr Financial Measures. — The course contemplated by government at the close of the war, was to kee}) up an eHicient sinking fund, and to continue during several years the |)r()j)iMty-ta>L on the reduced scale of 5 \)cv cent. This plan fell to the ground on the rejection of that tax by the House of Commons on the ISth March, 1810; a rejection altogether unexpected by ministers, A A .J^^ Our Fhumccs : and wliicli was afterwards declared hy theiii to have been })rodiictive of" great puljlic injury. To this opinion though expressed dehijerately, and h)ng after the first impression of disappointment, we can by no means subscribe. Had the burden been inevitable, and had the question been merely a commutation of one payment for another, a pro- perty-tax might have been somewhat less oppressive than several of the existing imposts ; but, under all the circumstances of the case, the rejection of the bill was, we are satisfied, productive of public good. Men in office, immersed in a routine of business, are often very imperfectly apprized of the circumstances of particular portions of the commu- nity. In the session immediately preceding, they had, by the magnitude of their grants, shown them- selves unconscious of the extent of the loss atten- dant on the transition from war to peace ; of the approaching fall of prices, the increasing pressure of taxation. To all this they were awakened by the loss of the bill, and taught, for the first time in twenty years, the necessity of negativing the im- portunate demands to which the holders of office are perpetually exposed. Besides, a property-tax, had it been imposed in 1816, would have been pro- ductive, distressing as was the time that followed, of loud complaint, perhaps of serious and general injiuy. The next financid measure of importance took place in 1819, when ministers having called on parliament to give efficiency to the sinking fund, proposed and carried a measure little expected in the midst of peace, — the imposition of new tiixes to the amount of 3,000,000/. These were imposed chiefly on malt, spirits, and tobacco, and paid with great reluctance during the interval of doubt and tJie Sinking Fund. 355 embarrassment which ensued. Ol' late, liowever, brighter prospects liave opened, and a diminution of ex])enditure has been promoted by a concuiTcnce of causes, — tranquiihty among our lower orders ; the reduction of the 5 per cents ; and the transfer of a portion of our half-pay and pension list to the next generation. The consequence has been im- ])ortant and gratifying — a reduction of taxes in tlie last two years to the amount of G,000,000/. The Sinking Fund, The idea of a Sinking Fund is of old date, having been conceived more than a century ago, by Sir R. Walpole, the only public man of his age wiio appears to have been conversant with finance. Its plan was simple, the fund being formed in the first instance of a small sum of surplus revenue, and augmented progressively by the interest of such part of the debt as w^as paid off by its operation. Here was no dis})lay of the wojiders of" compound interest, but the long peace that ensued favoured the reduction of debt, and the fund, though small, was progressively increasing. Such continued the course of circumstances until 1733, when the troubled aspect of the Continent, and the difficulty of imposing new taxes, necessitated an interference with some disjiosable resource, and the sinking fund was encroached on. A precedent once given, trespasses became fi'cquent, and this fund, thongii never abolished, ])roved of so slender oj)erati()n, that in the course of ludja century it had not dis- charged above 15,000,000/. of our debt. At lasl, in 178(), the scheme was revivetl with augmented energy, aided on the one hand l)y Dr. Price's flattering calculations of the effect of compound interest, on the other by Mr. I'itt's decl:iri'd dctir- A A L> il'iG Our Fhumccs ; mination to consider its funds inviolable. 'J'he new plan was in substance the same as that of Sir K. Walpole, but the reserve was invested with many additional safeguards, being committed to a special board of commissioners who were independent, not merely of the Treasury, but in some respects of Parliament. It was at this time that the public first became familiar with the term «* Consolidated Fund," which meant, however, nothing more than our taxes formed into an aggregate, out of which govern- ment pledged itself, whatever might be the pro- portion of our revenue to our expenditure, to pay a million annually to the new commissioners. The sinking fund consisted consequently of 1. An annual million, to which were added : 2. The amount of government annuities as they successively expired ; and 3. The interest of such stock as w^as annually redeemed. The measure now brought into operation, paid off the following sums : In 1787 £ 662,750 Stock. 1788 1,456,900 1789 1,506,350 In 1790 .^1,558,850 Stock. 1791 1,587,500 1792 1,507,110 These sums, small as they were, could hardly be considered bondjide reductions of the public debt, since the Spanish armament in I79O necessitated an addition to our burdens of nearly half their amount. In an arithmetical sense, accordinq-ly, the effect w^as inconsiderable ; in a political sense it was otherwise, as it excited the expectation of great subsequent deductions.^ To strengthen this ex- pectation, and to remove an apprehension that a renewal of war, by necessitating new loans, might cast these annual liquidations into the shade, Mr. Uic Sinking Fund. S5J Pitt obtained, in Vi^M, an act of "parliament declar- ing that all future loans should carry in themselves the means of tiieir progressive extinction, ministers, on contracting a loan, being pledgeil to " ])rovide taxes, not only for the interest but lor an adtlition to the sinking fund." This provision, whether in reality judicious or not, was very favourably re- ceived by the public, and had, in concurrence with the commercial prosperity of the year, the effect of producing a very considerable rise in the funds. But this flattering prospect was forthwith over- cast by our participation in the war against France, and the unparalleled magnitude of our expence. The sinking fund was maintained, and operated a large ajjparent reduction, but the result, in a defi- nitive sense, was null, our debt being augmented by our annual loans in a far greater ratio. After all that we have been told of the operation of the sinking fund ; after the pompous statements of hundreds of millions redeemed by it; after all the eloquent effusions in its praise by both sides of the House, the public will learn with some surprise, that since I786, this fund has had a real o])eration during twelve years only, and that the actual re- duction effected by it, has not averaged a single million a year! In this we are to be understood, as leaving the twenty-three years of war wholly out of the question, and coniining our calculation to the six yeai's })receding 171)3, and tlie six years subse- quent to 181.5. Compound Interest. — The surj)rising results ascribed in our time to compound interesi will be cited by the future historian, :us alfbrding a striking example of tiie ))ower of enthusiasm in the original calculator, and of the exteni of credulity on the ])art of tlie jniblic, in Nvar, llir ^inking linid i5 A A J ,'^58 Our Finances ; supported by loans, and is it not apparent, tfiat whatever may be the beneficial result of accinnu- lation in the hands of the commissioners of the sinking fund, tlie loss to the public from the addi- tional loans required by it must be in the same compound ratio ? We might even add, that in all cases of taxation, where the impost has not (and it very rarely has) the effect of inducing economy in the individual, the loss is to be reckoned by com- pound interest, since, had the money been lefl in the hands of the subject, tlie increase would have been in the compound form. Without entering into any arithmetical statement, or even pressing the argument in an abstract form, we may safely make the general assertion, tliat the power of the sinking fund, whatever it may have been, has arisen " not from actual payments, but from its influence on the public mind;** — from its presenting ^possibility of an ultimate repayment of the debt; — a possibility transformed into confident expectation by the ardour of the public and our natural inclination to belie^'e what we wish. Present State of the Sinking Fund. — Such was the state of our financial concerns until the begin- ning of 1322, when, by the double effect of reduc- tion of expenditure and increase of revenue, an actual surplus was produced, and the sinking fund was likely to become efficient to the extent of 4 or 5,000,000/. a year. We seemed now on the eve of attaining the result so long represented as desirable by ministers ; the possession of an engine for raising the price of stocks, or, in other words, for reducing the rate of interest on private securities. In wliat manner, it may be asked, would the latter prove a consequence of the former ? In France, where the 14. the Smhin<>: Fund. 3.59 interest of the public debt does not Ibrni 10 per cent, of the income arising from ])ro])erly, and government securities do not connnand general confidence, the interest of money vested in land, iiouses, and trade, is not materially affected by the j)rice of the public fimds. Land continues to be bought with eagerness, though yiekling only .'3, 3^7, or i per cent, on the })urchase money, at a time when the same capital would yield between 5 and (') per cent, in the funds. In this country the case is otherwise. Our })ublic divitlends iorm a considerable propoition of the income arising fi'om property ; they are held by individuals in all [)arts of the country ; and their value naturally uifluences that of other investments of capital. It follows that a rise in the price of stock, in other words, our obtaining less interest from purchasing in the funds, has a chrect tendency to lower the interest on private securities, as has been exempli- fied by the general diminution of the interest on mortgages diu'ing the last and })resent year. What, in a statistical sense, are the ciuuacteristics or accompaniments of a low rate of interest ? It is indicative of abundant ca})ital, and of a very ad- vanced state of productive industry. It was this which formed the great featiue in the situation of Holland during the chief part of the 17th and 18th centuries, and enabled her government to lower her dividends at a time (l651) when Fnuice and other states borrowed at very high interest. It was this which, under Sir R. Walpole, afforded the strongest proof of the revival of our financial credit, and which in I7ID enableil Mr. IVlham to ctlect a well-known and highly beneficial reductii)n. But, neither hi these cases, or in any otiier of whicli history has preserved the recoril, did the I'all of A A 1' ;3(J0 O/cr FiiKuire.s ; interest proceed from tlie operation of a sinking fund. It rested on a much broader ])asis : it was the natural consequence of confirmed peace ; of the diminished demand for capital ; of a fall, or tendency to fall, in the rate of interest on all secu- rities whether public or private ; it was to a con- currence of these circumstances, much more than to any surplus in the revenue, tliat we attributed the fortunate accomplishment of that great oper- ation, the reduction of the five per cents. If our readers see with some surprise these de- ductions from the efficiency of a measure so much vaunted, they will be no less struck with the farther part of our argument ; viz., tliat a large sinking fund, or, to describe it in the most simple terms, a large surplus revenue applied to the redemption of stock, would be productive of public injury. By lowering unnaturally the rate of interest, it would send capital abroad, and operate as a fund to raise the stocks of France or America. This result is too obvious to have escaped the observation of either the Bank directors or ministers : in fact, the readiness wdth which ministers consented both in the last and present year to relinquish their surplus revenue by remitting taxes, seems to indicate a conviction, that a rise in the value of stock, pro- duced artificially, would be replete with injury to the public. They cannot fail to be aware, that since the reduction of the 5 per cents., there remains no adequate motive for interfering with the current rate of interest, or for discovering a soli- citude on the part of government, to raise the value of the funds more than of land, or au}^ other de- scription of property. If, in commercial affairs, ministers have, during the last ten years, evinced a prudent forbearance, and abstained from the inter- 17 the Sinking Fund. 36l vention so unfortunately exercised by tlieir prede- cessors, is it likely that in finance tliey ^vill follow a different course ? Our debt will hardly admit of direct reduction : our hope of relief is in that diminution of pressure which will follow the in- crease of our means; — the augmentation of na- tional income; — a result most likely to be ])romoted, by strict impartiality as to property, whether vested in land or the public funds. But, if such be the conviction of our rulers, why, it may be asked, do tliey still cling to a name, and hold forth the sinking fund to parliament and the country, as an institution entitled to such zealous support ? Partly, we believe, from a wish to retain a surplus of revenue at their disposal, for the relief of suffering interests, or to facilitate measures of evident utility, such as the commu- tation of tithe in Ireland : partly perhajis, from a deficient acquaintance with the backwardness of other countries, and a consequent difh'dence in cal- culating the relative progress of our own. Our true sinking fund is to be sought in the more rapid increase of our national i?iconie, an increase that rests on no visionary basis, but on our mines, our navigation, our capital. Yet no speaker in parlia- ment, whether ministerialist or oppositionist, ap- pears to have as yet studied the comparati\e prospects of England and her neighbours, oi- lo be sufficiently aware of the inferences whicii they justify. The admissions successively nv.xdv by the siip- ])orters of the sinking fund (Aj)j)endi\, j). [1().'3].) liave removed part of the mystery which, by the aid of such phrases as " inviolability of de])osit" and *' operation of compound interest," luul so long encircled it. Our present Chancellor of the Exclie- ;if)2 Our l^'uianccs ; (iiicr lias liad tlie good sense to reliiHiuisli the nominal part of" tlie sinking fund, and to describe the remainder merely as a surplus revenue ap[)ro- priated to tlie redemption of stock. As such we request our readers to consider it, and to enable them to compute its amount without unravelling a long list of finance papers, we subjoin an Estimate of our Annual Expenditure for 1823 and 1824'. Half pay and pensions for tlic Army, Navy, and Ordnance, about - £ 4,800,000 Ofwhich advanced by the Bank, nearly - 2,0(X),000 Remainder to be paid out of the ■■ current revenue - - - 2,800,000 Army, exclusive of half pay and pensions - - - 7,000,000 Navy - - - - .5,5(X),0(K) Ordnance - . » . 1,200,000 Miscellaneous - ... 1,500,000 C-'ivil list ; pensions for Civil Services ; Courts of Justice ; civil Government of Scotland, and some lesser heads, all charged on the Consoli- dated Fund. ... . 2,000,000 Amount of expenditure distinct from the interest of the debt 20,000,000 Interest of the public debt - ... 30,000,000 Total - € 50,000,000 Such is our present expenditure ; and our bo7id fide sinking fund can, of course, be nothing else than the siu'plus of our income above it : it will be found to amount to three, four or more mil- lions, according to the productiveness of tlie revenue. The next and equally important question is, whether a surplus when found to exist, '* ought to be applied to the redemption of stock, or made a ground lor the further remission oi' taxes." We the Sinking Fund. 363 subscribe, without hesitation, to the hitter, not merely for tJie sake of" rehefto tlie j)ubhc, but on the less-understood ground ol" the injurious con- sequences of interfering with the price of stocks. Against this, liowever, it may be urged, that men of the most opposite views in politics have con- curred in eulogising the sinking limd — that Mr. Fox, was, in this respect, no less zealous than his great antagonist. Mr. Fox, it is well known, never made a study of finance, still less of political economy ; his conclusions in these, as in many other respects, when well founded, owed their justness less to continued research or careful com- parison, than to rectitude of feeling, to a manliness of character, which, in a question like the present, woidd prompt him to adopt without much inves- tigation that course, which should place the burden on the shoulders of ourselves, instead of our pos- terity. Again, Mr. Pitt, when he introduced the sinking fund, was only in his twenty-seventh year, and could not, from the pressure of other a\ oca- tions, have been able to study very closely the operation of a surplus revenue, ap])lied to the pur- chase of stock. He was necessarily unacquainted with the statistical returns which we ])ossess, and which shall be more fiilly noticed in the tbllowdng pages. He had before him no example of a measure tending, by mniatural interference with the rate of interest, to send capital out of the country: still less could he foresee the raj)id increase of our numbers, the sur})rising extension of our productive industry, and the consequent motives for pursuing a system, the reverse of that wliich maintains a sinking fund — we mean, heaiing light on the present generation, and transferring a por- tion of taxation to then' les^ burdeneil successors. ,'30 J< (hir Finances ; Dis/'nir/ion iif If these remarks are at all useful in correcting ])()])ular niisa|)i)re]iension, we shall hope somewhat of a similar result from the following paragra})hs, ralating to the situation of difterent classes of stockholders. StockJioldcrs : Disli/iclioti helxveen Permanent and Temporari/ Depositors. — Those of our country- men who have travelled and paid attention to topics of this nature, must have remarked that in France, Germany, Spain, in short, in every country on the Continent, except Holland, the public funds are comparatively little resorted to as a deposit for private property. The governments of these coun- tries have not as yet acquired the confidence at- tached to a representative assembly, and the inha- bitants are little acquainted with the security con- ferred on property by public register, the power of transfer, the steady observance of good faith to- wards the public creditor. Continental lenders require the visible, and, as they account it, solitl security of land and houses. Such, a century and a half ago, was the case throughout England generally, and such, in no small degree, was the case in the provincial part of the kingdom at the beginning of the late war. The general ardour of our countrymen in the contest, their confidence in government, and the comparatively high interest then given by the Treasury, led to the deposit in that ready absorbent, of sums of which the magni- tude would have startled the caution of our fore- fathers. The result of the whole is, that funded property so insignificant in a former age, when compared to the general wealth of the kingdom, is now of an amount approaching to the value of our land, ])articularly if we estimate it not by capital, but (seo p. '258.) by income. Permanent and Tempnrarif SloclJiolders. 80.5 Annuitants on our public funds, instead of being confined, as in the last age, to London, Bristol, and a few of our principal towns, are now found in every district, and in every variety of occupation. The great majority of them are })er- manent depositors, strangers to tlie manani\)-c's of the stock exchange, speculating neither on buy- ing or selling, and attentive merely to the lialfl yearly receipt of their dividends. These persons consider the stocks as a fund ])ermanently eligible for themselves and their families, confiding, on the one hand, in the good faith of Parliament, and aware, on the other, of the serious drawbacks at- tendant on property in land and houses, — the dif- ficidty of collecting rents, the heavy charge at- tendant on transfers. The funds, they are aware, involve neither delays nor lawsuits, while, with a view to bequest, they admit of an easy and direct repartition. It is in results such as these, that we recognize all the advantage of established in- stitutions, of the steady observance of good faith on the part of government. Viewed in a national sense, they render a people capable of efforts such as those which maintained the independence, of Holland against the successive attacks of Spain, England, and France: — Viewed in regard to the individual, they ofler a mode of investment almost as much superior to that of the circle of pri\ate connexion, as is afforded by Saving Banks, when compared with the precarious deposits to which the lower orders were formerly accustomed to trust their petty savings. What proportion do these persons, the perma- nent depositors in our funds, bear to the body of stockholders at large ? Not less, we believe, than fonr-Jifths of the xv/iok% whether we look to number 3(]G Our Finmiccs ; JYis tine lion of or piopcrty. The temporary depositors, liowcvor, few IIS tliey are, fill a more conspicuous ])iact! in the public eye : it is they who bustle on the Slock Exchange, who confer with tlie Chancellor of the Exchequer, and who come conspicuously forward to bear a part in loan contracts. But these persons consider the funds merely as a transient property, a security in which, as in Exchequer bills or mer- cantile acceptances, they may vest a floating sum until the occurrence of a more eligible mode of appropriation. Their calculations as to the price of stocks go no farther than the month or the quarter which may elapse ere it suit them to with- draw their money, for the purpose, perhaps, of transferring it to the funds of the United States of America, France, or the lesser Continental powers. Merchants, it has long been said, are citizens of the world, but of all mercantile men, that is particu- larly the case with temporary stockholders, to whom London, Amsterdam, and Paris, present but one vast exchange. How different this from the jier- manent depositor who exhibits so many character- istics of the retired capitalist, of the inheritor of real property, preferring British security, even at a reduced interest, and not seeking to escape his portion of sacrifice, when satisfied that it is con- ducive to the general relief ! These persons are much more interested in preserving than in ac- quiring ; their object is not a rise of price for the purpose of sale, but secuiity in regard to their capital and strict punctuality in the payment of the interest. This disposition has been strikingly exemplified in the late reduction of the five per cents., of which not a jifticth part was sent out of the country y not- withstanding the great temptation offered by foreign Permanent and Tcmporarii Stockholders. 307 funds. And if in the three per cents, the perma- nent depositors do not sur})ass the teni})orary in so great a proportion, they form, even in these, beyond all comparison, the majority. With what view, it may be asked, do we enter into this discrimination of tem])orary antl peinia- nent depositors ? Partly because it is little under- stood, but more for the purpose of showing the unimportance in a national sense, of the class who come forward as the representatives of the fund- holders at large. It follows, that any measures that may be taken in regard to the funds, should be adapted to the unobtrusive, we may almost say, the silent majority of stockholders. Persons cir- cumstanced as they are, can desire no aid at the expence of the community ; no addition to the market price of stock, except such as shall natu- rally arise from the continuance of peace, the growing abundance of capital. — An artificial proj), such as the sinking fund, they will not hesitate to forego, when a])prized, that in peace it is of inju- rious tendency, and should be considered only as an ingenious scheme by which the financier, in a season of difficulty, seeks to stimulate the avidity of capitalists, and to })rovide lor the calls of the Treasury, without an extravagant sacrifice. After these preliminary explanations and (he removal from the mind of the reader of certain po- pular impressions, we shall proceed with ad\ autage to our farther illustrations. 3()S Coinpdralivc Taocufum of Comparative Taxation of Hits Cnuntrij and France. GREAT BlllTAIN AND IRELAND. Computed fur 182;i, after dcdnclin^ llie taxes on salt, leather., and vialt lately reduced : also a portion of the Assessed Taxes. Gross amount, inclusive of the expence of collection. Assessed taxes - - - £5,000,000 Customs .... 11,000,000 Excise .... 27,00O,fXK) Stamps .... 6,800,000 Land-tax .... 1,200,000 Post-office (nett amount) - - 1;400,000 Crown lands - - - 200,000 All other government receipts - - 1,400.000 i54-,0(X),(XK) Tithe (including Ireland) - . 5,000,000 Poor-rate, after deducting the portion paid (see page 199.) in lieu of wages - 5,000,000 Total - ^G4-,000,0()0 being 25 per cent, on our national income as computed in page 257. FRANCE. Gross amount, inclusive of expence of collection. Fancier, or land and house tax - - 9,000,000 Mobilier a farther house tax; also the window tax ?Lwi\.patentes, or tax on professions - 3,000,000 Customs .... 2,300,000 Excise, viz. duties on salt, tobacco, snuff, wine, spirits, beer, and some lesser articles, the whole comprised under the name of droits remiis ... . 9,000,000 Stamps, viz. enregistremcnt, doinaine ct timbre - 6,000,000 Post-office (nett receipt) - - - 600,000 Sale of wood from the public forests - - 800,000 All other receipts and contingencies, including a large municipal revenue collected from octrois and other charges borne by the inha- bitants of towns -^ - " - .- 6,300,000 37,000,000 Enf>;Jan(l and France. 369 Kqual, alter adding a Htth for the greater value of money, in France than in England, to - 45,000,000 This forms nearly 18 per cent, on the national income of France, as computed in page 270. In this table of comparative taxation, the chief distinctive feature is tiie magnitude of our excise, customs, and assessed taxes, tlie proportion of which to the same taxes in France, is as forty to twenty milhons. This puts in a striking' Hght the greater ability to pay on tlie part of a connnercial community, of whicli so large a proportion are re- sident in towns, a circumstance conducive equally to ease of collection on the part of government, and to free consumption on that of the public. Hence, the magnitude of our receipts on spirits, beer, tea, sugar, wine, fruit ; on certain articles of dress, as silk ; or on that which more immediately marks a mercantile society, postage. It lessens, at the same time, the weight of an argument, fre- quently brought against our taxation, but which we are far from adopting in a literal sense, viz. that when computed at so much a head, it amounts to more than twice the average capitation of our neighbours. Com Larvs. — These laws may be termed an in- direct impost on the public, payable to landholders as an indemnity for the huul-tax, tithe, and j)oor- rate. They have in particidar years foinied an addition to our j)ayments greatly beyond the amount expended by the landed interest for these burdens ; l)ut at })resent the case is so different, that our corn laws may, in some measure, be con- sidered a dead letter. In oiu- table accordingly we have avoided noticing their operation, and have preferred introducing the amount of the charges R B 370 Comparative Taxation. which they are intended to counterbalance. In France also there exist restrictions on the import of foreign corn, but they are of little consequence in a country where the growth is, in general, fully equal to the consumption, particularly as import becomes free whenever the average of wheat of home growth approaches to 50^. the Winchester quarter. What, it may be asked, is the object of the pre- ceding tables? To draw with distinctness and precision, that which is so often attempted in a loose and exaggerating manner, — a comparison between the burdens of this and other countries, our competitors in the sale of manufactures. The Agricultural Committee of 1821 advanced an opi- nion (Report, p. 22.), that the taxation of other countries compared to their resources is as high as our own. This conclusion our statement does not confirm, but it will probably be instrumental in modifying a very general impression of an opposite nature ; viz. that oui' burdens exceed those of our neighbours, to a degree which, in a manner, baffles all hope of approaching to an equality. Far from joining in this discouraging view of our situation, we are inclined to augur very favourable results from a perseverance in the course of reduction lately adopted by ministers. 371 SECTION II. Our Prospects in Commerce and Finance, Jtrobability of continued Peace. — The events that liave recently occurred on the Continent, unsatisfactory as they are to the friends of con- stitutional freedom, have had at least one i^ood effect, that of putting beyond doubt the determin- ation of our ministers to maintain peace. The debates of 29th and 30th April last, will be me- morable for the declarations to that eflf'ect, made by Mr. Canning and Mr. Robinson, and confirmed by the votes of an overpowering majority. But this, we may be assured, was no new determination on the part of our rulers, the course of circum- stances having long since shown to the reflecting part of our public men, tiiat the only eflectual remedy for the national embarrassment was to be sought in a steady adherence to a pacific system. It will be in the recollection of many of our readers, that the late Lord Lonilonderry, in his speech of 29th April (1822), dwelt strongly on the improbability of our being again called on to bear a part in war, on a scale at all similar to that ot" our late contest. Had the reserve of office permitted his lordship to express himself at large, he might, we believe, have gi/ven the most conc/usit'c argu- ments for this opinion, avowing that the magnitude of our loss, by the war, was unperceived at the time it was incurred ; that ministers, had they com- prehended its extent, would have followed a much B B 2 872 Pruhahilih/ if/' more cautious course, aiul that no consideration should again prompt tlieni to the once popuhu" sys- tem of vigour. Never, we may add, chd a contest close with more success in its main objects — the change of government in France, and the restoration of independence to Europe; while, as to territorial acquisitions, it rested with us to retain or give back whatever suited our policy. Would it be easy to imagine circumstances more calculated to heal the wounds of protracted warfare, or to prevent that distress in which we have, notwithstanding, been so deeply involved? After such dear-bought experience, is it probable that our government will be easily led to act an aggressive part ; or is it not more likely, that its conduct will, in future, be stamped with a prudence similar to that of a Cecil or a Walpole, — to that which the unambi- tious government of Holland has for ages studied to exemplify ? How far is this pacific prospect confirmed by the situation of foreign powers ? The United States of America passed, in February 1821, an Act for reducing to one half, an army which already was far from munerous j and the building of ships of war, prosecuted only in compliance with a temporary enthusiasm, is now also relaxed. Next, as to our great European rival, France is no longer to us the France of Louis XIV. or of Bona- parte : not only is her national power comparati^•ely very different, but the s})rings of court intrigue, the hazard of secret influence on the executive branch, are checked, as in this country, by the freedom of parliamentary discussion. If it be urged, however, that though the nation be inclined to peace, the cabinet may be misled by foreign influence or ministerial prejudices, and that in the conti7uie(l Peace. 373 varying scene of European politics, there may arise contingencies calculated to draw France into war, let it be remembered, that her internal situ- ation affords the strongest motives for a return to peace. Her ministers cannot long be blind to her real situation, — to the fact, that her })0])ulation is in a more divided state, the ])reservation of her }n-e- sent government less assured than was the case in England a century ago, when, the Hanoverian family being recently settled on tiie throne, it rcxjuired a steady adherence to pacific ])olicy to prevent a ru})ture, of which the result might have been, that the regal prize Mould have been fought for on British c^round. Causes qJ'JVar that no longer eiist. — On taking a retrospect of our history, we shall Hnd that several of the most populai", as well as most sub- stantial grounds of continental war, have ceasetl to exist. This country began to take an active part in foreign politics nearly a century and a half ago, a time when France was so prejwnderant, that during the reigns of William and Anne, continued exertion was necessary to preserve the independ- ence of Europe. The wars of 171-0 and I756 owed their origin chiefly to peculiarities in the situation of Austria and Prussia, li' these no longer iurnish a probable ground of war, it is still less likely that we shall be involved in any contest for colonies such as that of 177''^> o^' i" 'i" attempt to regulate the government of our neiglihours, such as that which called Europe to arms in 179^3. Those liberal views in jjolitics, tliat conviction of tlie barren nature of military troj)hies, anil of the substantial fruits of })eace, which were so long confined to the philosophic reader of history, have at last reached our cabinet, and have influenced B B S 37 4> Pro ba hilt t if of it since 1812, to a degree greater than is generally known. Neither the troubles of (rrecce or of Spain have, for a moment, shaken the pacific determination of our ministers. Add to this, that the restrictive laws, so long connected with our colonial system, have now ceased to fascinate our rulers, and will soon cease to fascinate our mer- chants. Our Board of Trade has expunged from our commercial code, the acts most offensive to foreigners : it no longer listens to scliemes of mo- nopoly, or seeks to found our connnercial pros- perity otherwise than in concurrence with that of our neighbours. The discovery of the real sources of national wealth, has show^n the folly of wasting lives and treasure for those colonial possessions, which, during the last century, in the reign of the mercantile theory, were accounted the chief basis of commercial prosperity. It is now above forty years since the United States of America were definitively separated from us, and since their situ- ation has afforded a proof, that the benefit of mer- cantile intercourse may be retained in all its extent, without the care of governing, or the ex- pence of defending these once-regretted provinces. Mexico, Peru, Chili, Brazil, tiie regions so much coveted by our forefathers, are now open to every flag, and never likely to become, on commercial grounds at least, a cause of wan Is it necessary to add arguments to show the fallacy of expecting any national advantage from war ? If we cast our eyes on France, we find her, after considering herself, during many years, the mistress of the Continent, brought back, in 1814, to her ancient limits : if we look at home, we find our countrymen, after believing that our naval superiority, our coiiquests in the east and west, had continued Peace. S'JS brought us unparalleled wealtli, have made the mortifying discovery that our l)urdens far exceed our acquisitions, and that the only substantial ad- dition to our resources, arises from domestic im- provement and augmentation of numbers ; cir- cumstances that had little or no connexion with a state of hostility. Frederic II. of Prussia af- forded, perhaps, the most striking example of suc- cess arising from keeping up a large standing army, having acquired by it, in the first instance, »Silesia, and eventually part of Poland : yet, whoever will calculate, on the one hand, the amount of his sacrifices, on the other, the natural progress of population and wealth during so long a period as his reign (Ibrty-five years), will find that the in- crease of his power would have been fully equal, had he confined himself to the plain and direct course of remaining in peace and improving his hereditary dominions. To follow up such a course, to surmount our financial difficulties, and to lieal the woinuls of Ireland, are, doubtless, the chief objects of govern- ment. When these grand points shall be attained, the magnitude of our resources will be so evident as to dispel all apprehension of attack, not only on this country, but on the independeiice of the Ne- therlands, the maintenance of which seems now to form the only sufficient ground for our interfering in a continental contest. Our Prospect of ina^ased Resources. — We have already expressed (p. 2,54.) a belief that if we can so conduct our affairs as to get over a few years of difficulty, our financial prospects would brighten beyond those of any other country. The more we examine our situation, the more we .shall find B B 4 S7(') Our Prospect of ourselves enal)le(l to trace its evils to transition, derangement, and other causes of" a temporary cha- racter. Our recent experience has shown, that a season of peace will not always be a season of stagnation, and that an increase of ])opulation, pro- ducing consumers as well as producers, has no tendency to over-stock. The order of Providence evidently is, that the industrious should be at no loss for employment. And the old adage, that " England is England's best customer," will be exemplified with ample effect whenever the course of circumstances shall restore things to their level, and whenever the unnatural effect of war and taxation shall be removed. In the belief of several of our countrymen, we have arrived at that point beyond w^hich we can hardly expect to carry either our numbers or our wealth. Their apprehension, however, will be found to require no lengthened refutation, and is noticed here chiefly to satisfy those persons, neces- sarily numerous in a commercial country, w^ho, immersed in their respective occupations, have little means of generalizing or of reasoning from the past to the future. The fact is, that our im- provements, whether in agriculture, manufacture, or navigation, are at present no more arrive 1 at a limit, no more threatened with obstacles to their farther progress, than they were a century ago. A negative impression of this nature w^as general thirty years since, yet no age has been so fertile in discovery, in invention, in increase of productive powder j and happily no country possesses, in its resources, whether physical or political, greater means of continuing the career of advancement. Our capital and labour, of which so large a portion was long directed to military purposes, are nov/ increased Resources. .377 applied to objects of permanent utility. The two great anomalies of our inland situation, ])oor-rate andtitlic, can hardly fail to yield to the intelli*^ence of the age ; and their removal Mould go far to- wards healing the wounds of the suffering portion of the connn unity. To bring our calculation to a point, — what an- nual sum may we consider as likely to be added to our national revenue, in a season of peace ? This it is no easy matter to reduce to a s})ecific form, but after establishing (p. 262.), the intimate connection between population and wealth, we may, we trust, on very safe grounds, as far as regards England and Scot- land (leaving Ireland, at least the cottagers of Ire- land, out of the question), assume the increase of numbers as the ratio of the increase of our taxable income. Such certainly may be taken for graiited, when the reduction of our taxation shall have been carried somewhat farther, removing the chief })art of the extra pressure on our national industrv, and placing it, in regard to pul)lic burdens, more nearly on a level with that of our continental com- petitors. We proceed to exhibit the result in the form of arithmetical computation. First, as to our num- bers: — instead of requiring our readers to assent to the probability of an addition ainiualh angincMit- ing, we shall confine ourselves to that wliieh is past and ascertained ; viz. the individuals boni in the early part of the century (1S02, S, 1.), who are now entering, year after year, on flie age of productive labour. Next, as to the fiiiits of iheii" labour, represented in the Ibrm of money, we ha\ e already (Ap])endix, j). 77-) calculated the animal addition to our national income from that source at .S,01X),()00/., and as our taxation, even on a S7S Oin^ Pros-peel of reduced scale, will be iiilly ^0 per cent, on our income, the consequent addition to our revenue is aboNC 000,000/. Hut here also we shall make a large abatement, and shall call the addition in question only 400,000/. Computated Increase of National Incomefrovi the Progress of prodnctivi' Industiij and Population^ assuming such Increase at 400,000/. a-ycar. Annual Increase Annual Increase Years. of the I'roduce Years. of the Produce of Taxes. of Taxes. 1823 £ 400,000 1837 £ 6,000,000 1824 800,000 1838 6,400,000 1825 1,200,000 1839 6,800,000 1826 1,600,000 1840 7,200,000 1827 2,000,000 1841 7,600,000 1828 2,400,000 1842 8,000,000 1829 2,800,000 1S43 8,400,000 1830 3,200,000 1844 8,800,000 1831 3,600,000 1845 9,200,000 1832 4,000,000 1846 9,600,000 1833 4,400,000 1847 10,000,000 1834 4,800,000 1848 10,400,000 1835 5,200,000 1849 10,800,000 1836 5,600,000 1850 11,200,000 This increase supposes neither new taxes or im- pro'sed circumstances on the part of those who pay them : if the latter merely escape deterior- ation, the increase of numbers, the acquisition of the additional labourers in the productive field, will, by the augmented consum])tion of taxed articles, make the computed addition to the revenue. Diminution of public Eapenditiu^e. — If it be accounted somewhat confident to anticipate so regular an increase of national income from the mere augmentation of our numbers, we shall call increased Resources. 879 in an auxiliary of another kind, — the effect of diminishing expenditure. Economy is evidently tlie wish of ministers, and the rising value of money bids fair to enable them to carry reduction considerably farther, witliout injury to the indi- viduals reduced. Wliat is, in this respect, the effect of the repeal ot« 6,000,000/. of taxes in the last two years ? To lower prices ; to bring money more nearly to the value it bore in 179'2; to render in the fourth year of the war, that circumstances pointed out to Mr. Pitt, the neces- sity of a radical change in his financial plans — the substitution of war taxes for loans. The length to which the latter had been carried, exceeded the disposable funds of the monied interest ; while, on the other hand, the increase of productive industry, the rise of wages, salaries, rents, all concurred to strengthen the hope of a liberal supply from tax- ation. Mr. Pitt seized the distinction with his usual promptitude, and erected on it a structure, the eventual magnitude of which, proved one of the wonders of the age. What concurrence of circum- stances enabled him and his successors to carry taxation so far ? During the war, our capital and labour had ample employment : competition from abroad on the part of foreigners, or what might have proved far more formidable, our emigrating countrymen, w^as wholly out of the question. The transfer of English capital to the continent was prevented, as well by a dread of lawless conduct on Taxation, a Cause ofEmharrassment . 387 the part of the French government, as by a more gratifying consideration, the profits reaUzed at home. .Since the peace, circumstances are entirely altered ; the competition of foreigners is to be dreaded ; capital has been placed in foreign funds, and emigration, had not the price of provisions fallen among us, might have been carried to a ruin- ous length. The profit of stock, the wages of part of the lower classes, the emoluments of the higher, most incomes, in short, except those of the annuitant on the public funds, have undergone diminution, the wiiole pointing as much to the necessity of re- ducing taxation in peace, as our situation during war indicated the practicability of its increase. How far is Taxation a Cause of Embay^rassment ? — What, it may be asked, have been the most pro- minent characteristics of our national embarrass- ment since 1814? A deficiency of employment, among part of the lower orders, and distress, from insufficiency of wages, at those intervals when pro- visions were high priced. In the middle classes, whether merchants, manufacturers, or agriculturists, the general ground of complaint has been an inade- quacy of profit ; a disproportion of prices to the cost of production. The principal cause of these and other difficulties was, doubtless, as explained in the preceding chapters, the magnitude of^ the transition, the suspension of government expendi- ture, and the consequent over-stock of hands. That such would have been severely felt under a taxation as light as that of Switzerland or the United States of America, admits of no doubt ; but it never would have reaJicd such an extent, or coiitinuetl until the ninth year of peace, had not our public burdens, and consequently the expence of Uving, been higher c c 2 .'■tSS Injvrii arising than among our neighbours. Emigration and the export of capital would, in a different case, have been comparatively inconsiderable ; and additional means of promoting j/roductive industry would have been possessed at home. Having no wish to press our arguments to an extreme, we disclaim, without hesitation, the aid of certain popular notions, such as that " a taxed commodity after passing through three or four dif- ferent hands, is enhanced by 20 or 30 per cent, charged by the dealers for their advance on the tax.'* We know too well the slender profit of either wholesale or retail business, to give credit to such loose assertions ; a dealer is in general satisfied with a charge of 2 or 3 per cent, on his ad\ance, so that this argument, though not undeserving of attention, has no claim to a prominent rank in the objections to taxation. These will be found suffi- ciently serious without the aid of exaggeration : it can hardly be disputed that our high duties tend, to raise our prices above the currency of our neigh- bours, and we have the sanction of Dr. Smith for saying that " a rise in the money price of com- modities, "when peculiar to a country, tends to dis- courage more or less every department of industry carried on within it, enabling other nations to undersell it, not only in the foreign but in the home market;" — an opinion to which we subscribe in the words of its illustrious author, notwithstanding all tbe qualifications of it which we have read in the publications of the political economists of the day. To bring this question into a more definite form, we subjoin a table of the from Taxation. .389 Taxes uihich bear, more or less directly, on the comjorit qflifCy ductionin 1822 J Stamps Sugar - - - Tea . . - Foreign Timber - Coals carried 7 coastways J Soap - - - xesl ate S- €4,500,000 6,500,000 6,500,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 1,000,000 900,000 900,000 Leather since the! reduction in > €300,000 1 .SL^'J J roreign Wool 3(X),000 Cotton 5(X),(KK) Paper - •100,000 Glass 400,tKK) Candles and Tallow- 40(),(XK) Bricks and Tiles 3(X),0{K) Auction Duties 240,000 Hemp 200,(K)0 Starch 50,000 The whole forming a sum of nearly 30,000,000/,* To draw the line of distinction between the ne- cessaries and superfluities of life, between the greater or less injury arising from taxation to pro- ductive labour, is a task of great nicety. There can, it is true, be little doubt that such imposts as those on leather, candles, green ghiss, bricks, tiles, soap, starch, coal, are direct burdens on industry ; charges which must have many bad effects, such as * To give the reader a complete view of our fiscal burdens, we subjoin the following, which are left out of the text, as Taxes ■which appear to interfere less tvith our productive in- dustry. Post-office - £1,400,000 Foreign spirits, ) chielly brandy/ British spirits Licences for pub- ) licans, &c. J Wine Tobacco andsnuff) (Excise) f Tobacco (Customs) Coffee and cocoa Rum Silk, raw and thrown East India piece) goods i 2,300,000 3,000,000 700,000 1,600,000 2,400,000 500,000 100,000 )ds'l '"■{ s - 2ign butter ) id cheese J Printed goods (home niant iacture) Foreign linens Foreij and Tallow Raisins and other |^ Iruits I 600.000 Barilla and other | 300.0001 tlrugs / 200,000! I'cpper Skins and furs Mahogany Varion- other diiticf> c c 3 €570,000 80,000 100,000 100.000 100,000 150,000 150,(X)0 50.000 50,000 1. 000.000 impairing personal comfort, raising the nominal rate of wages, or lessening our exports. On the other liand, it may happen that imposts, the least excep- tionable in the view of individuals, may, on the ground of fiscal calculation, have the earliest claim to diminution. Thus, wine, spirituous liquors, and lace, appear fair objects of high taxation, but if the duty be so great as to hold forth to smugglers a premium such as enables them to prosecute their business in spite of all the vigilance of our cruisers, an abatement of duty may be found an indis- pensable alternative. In the case of sugar, the question of abatement stands on different groimds. In an article so acceptable to general taste, and so innocent in its effects, we are justified in expecting a regular extension of sale, in proportio?i to the diminution of price. This has been in a consider- able degree exemplified at different intervals of de- pression in the market, and seems to authorize the inference, (and a very important one it is,) that a reduction of the duty Avould have the effect of ex- tending the consumption, and of gratifying the lower orders without much injury to the revenue. On these different claims to priority in the re- duction of taxes we acknowledge our inability to decide. The records of the Treasury, doubtless, contain materials calculated to throw light on these intricate enquiries, although even with such an aid the result of reduction will, at times, be found to differ considerably from previous expectation. "We decline accordingly to enter on this uncertain field, and confine ourselves to the general question of the pressure of taxation. Examples of Injury from Taxation. — The un- seen injury arising from taxation, its interference from Taxation. 391 with the free course of manufacture, is much greater than is suspected by the pubHc. To form a correct idea of this, would require an investiga- tion into all the branches in which the activity and invention of individuals are repressed by the regu- lations of the excise. Of their effect in the case of distillers, some idea may be formed from the evi- dence given before the Sugar Distillery Connnittee in 1808. To advert to a very different case, we shall take an illustration familiar to those who transact business as underwriters, and who know the extent of the reduction produced by peace in the terms of insurance. To a war premium of 6, 8, or 10 per cent., a policy duty of one-fourth per cent, on the sum insured formed an addition of little conse- quence, but when premiums were lowered to .2 or 3 per cent., it was found a heavy proportional chariie, and afforded an inducement to fbrcifrn merchants to effect their insurances at llamburuii and other ports, where the duty is comparatively light. The consequence is, that the recent reduc- tion of our policy duty has, in some degree, come too late. Ship-owning, often a losing investment of capital during the war, has been doubly so since the j)eace, and can hardly prove otherwise, until by reducing the attendant charges, we shall enable our buiklers, our rope-makers, and others, to meet foreign com- petitors on equal terms. Navigation does not, like iiome trade, admit of controul by interior regula- tion : its scene of competition is the ocean, and success in it can be attained only by a clear supe- riority over foreigners. Countries j)ossessing forests of timber in the vicinity of a navigable river, enjoy already one great advantage over our shij)-builders: to increase that by an impost on the foreign timber c c 4- 392 Reduction of used by our countrymen, is to place them on a foot- ing of inferiority inadequately balanced by our extra duties on goods im])orted in foreign vessels. A reduction of the duty on foreign timber and hemp, seems an indispensable preliminary to our successful competition with foreign ship-builders, — a competition which would not then be hopeless, when we consider the superiority of our workmen, and the recent fall in the cost both of their mainte- nance, and of the conveyance of foreign materials to our shores. It would be easy to multiply examples of pres- sure from taxation, but there can, we believe, be little doubt on several essential points, as That it forms a main obstacle, to the general free- dom of trade which government seem so desirous to introduce ; That on a considerable part of the public it bears harder now than during the war ; and That in general its pressure is greater in Eng^ land than on the Continent. After all the additional means conferred by our navigation, our extent of town-population, and our superior agriculture, the payment of 64,000,000/. a year, must bear harder on the national income of this country than that of 45,000,000/. (see p. 369. of this chapter) on that of France. On the Conti- nent, the evils of transition from war to peace have not been altogether so serious ; the failures among merchants and manufacturers have been less numer- ous ; while among their agriculturists the decline of price, much as it is complained of, has been less ruinous than in this country. How far 'would a Reduction of Taxation be pro- ductive of Relief ? — We shall suppose, for the sake Taxation. 393 of giving our argument a definite form, that it is proposed to discuss the expediency of making a farther reduction of our taxes to the extent in all of 6,000,000/. Were that abatement directed in ioto to some specific branches of industry, for ex- ample, those connectetl with the use of such articles as leather, coals, timber, there seems little doubt that, though like all other changes, it would for some time be productive of a derangement of work, the stock of em])loymcnt eventually created would supply that which in }'ears of distress was our principal desideratum^ — a sufiicient demand for labour. We shall take, however, the least favour- able supposition, assuming that our public men are not agreed in regard to the farther taxes to be re- pealed, and that the 6,000,000/. of which we con- template the reduction, must be abated in the form of a per centage on the revenue at large. What, it may be asked in the next place, would be the result of such abatement to the individual? A diminution of charge to the extent of two or three per cent, on his expenditure, — an object of no great consequence, it is true, to the land-holder, the retired capitalist, or any person out of business j but one which in the hands of the merchant, the manufacturer, or the farmer, woukl form an engine of great efficiency. In the case of an individual out of business, the amount of annual disburse re- presents only the expenditure of himself "and family; in business, on the other hand, it comprizes wages, salaries, and other outlay to an amount frequently of three, four, or five times the house-keeping ex- pence. That which in the one case would j)rove a saving of only 20/. a year might, and generally would amount in the other to 100/. Now j)ersons m business form evidently the stay of a commer- 39'if Reduction of cial country, the class whose prosperity is decisive oftliiit of" the community at large. Tiiis will be apparent on our pursuing our rea- soning a step farther, and examining the effect of a reduction on our means of maintaining a compe- tition with foreigners. The consequence would be that our w'oollens, our cottons, our hardware, might be sent to foreign markets two or three per cent. chea})er than at present. To those who have a due sense of the smallness of mercantile profit, (Speech of Mr. Baring, loth July 1822,) even this limited reduction will appear of great importance, enabling us to compete with our foreign rivals, the manu- facturers of France, Germany, and the Nether- lands. To these, since the inauspicious aera of our Orders in Council, we must add the inhabitants of the Northern States of the American Union, the return of the State of New York for 1821, exhibit- ing a value of 8 or 10,000,000/. sterling, (chiefly woollens and cottons,) manufactured among a po- pulation of little more than a million. But our national industry is, it may be said, already amply productive, whether in agriculture or manufacture ; — the evil lies in a want, not of produce, but of vent, and our neighbours, whether Germans or Belgians, have long complained of the free admission of our fabrics. This, however, proves little more than that in certain branches foreigners kre unable to compete with us, and that our rivalship, if continued, may induce them to give a different direction to a part of their labour and capital, manufacturing commodities of which we should probably become the purchasers, in con- sequence of changes that would follow the increased freedom of trade. A state of continued peace im- plies a reduced scale of profits, a limited return for li Ta^vaUoii. 395 capital, but not necessarily an overstock of mer- chandize or deficiency of employment. In harvest we generally have an opportunity of observing, that the su])])ly of labourers is not superabiuidant, and since the beginning of last year, :here has existed no over-stock but in agriculture. Even in a dull season the surcharge of hands is less great than is commonly supposed. To add a twentieth or even a thirtieth to the existing demand for labour, in other words to find employment for 100,000 in- dividuals of the lower order, would, on most occa- sions, prove a change completely satisfactory. If we proceed to make an analysis of the causes which determine the quantity of produce prepared among us, either by the loom or the plough, we shall find it to depend mainly on the " amount of capital and number of workmen in the coimtry,'* points in which, of course, no legislative j)rovision can effect any speedy change. It is a fact, that for a series of years the quantity jirepared for a losing market is nearly as large as for a profitable one ; so great is the power of habit, the necessity of following up an ^stablislied trade or profession. This result, so difierent fiom the inferences of some political economists, is, doubtless, promoted by our poor-law system : it was exemplified on the part of our manuflicturers amid the continued dis- tresses of 1819 and 1820 ; and experiences at pre- sent a confirmation in the case of our farmers. From all these facts what inference do we make, and what are we to consider the probable result of a reduction of taxation? Not overstock in atii/ branch of manufacture, butsecur'iti/fromforcii^n competition ? Oljections ansxverccL — Various arguineiUs may, we are aware, be advanced as well by men in office as others, against any considerable change ni our .^96 Taa^ation ; fiscal arrangements. Taxes repealed or modified, cannot, they will say, be re-imposed. Charges that have interwoven themselves with our habits ought not to be abruptly removed. To this we answer, that several of our taxes are such as ought never to have been im})osed, indicating, as they do, the rudest state of financial science, and betraying an almost total unconsciousness of the check given by these burdens to productive industry. As to the question of re-imposition, we have, happily, good ground for dismissing the apprehension of retracing our steps ; but, supposing, for the sake of argument, tliat such were to become in some de- gree necessary, the new taxes would be of an alto- gether different nature. A property-tax to the extent of 2^, perhaps 5 per cent., would, doubtless, receive the sanction of parliament, in preference to a revival of such duties as those on malt, salt, leather, coals, or the house and window-tax. Next, as to the evils apprehended from transi- tion, — from that state of change, which, to a nation as to an individual, is always unprofitable and fi:e- quently pernicious. Evils of that nature, would, even on a diminution of our burdens, occur in a variety of modes not anticipated by the public, but their duration would necessarily be temporary, and their amount might be lessened by various arrange- ments, such, perhaps, as making our future reduc- tions consist less in an absolute repeal of a few particular taxes than in a modification, a partial diminution of a number ; — a course which might, besides, have the effect oi relieving government from much importunate solicitation. Such are the arguments for a reduction of taxa- tion. Inconsiderable as the proposed abatement Plan o/M. Xecker. Sgj may appear, no one can say liow materially our pro- ductive industry may be promoted by it : but were immediate relief not to prove the consequence, we should have at least the satisfaction of entering on that path, which must eventually lead to a favour- able issue. The modifications made last session in our navigation and corn laws have a title to general approbation, yet no one expects from them imme- diate relief, or regards '!iem in other li^lit than as an approximation to a better system. In like man- ner a diminution of taxes would bring us more nearly to a level with the rest of the civilized world, giving our manufacturers a fair chance in the field of competition, relieving our aniuiitants from the necessity of emigrating, and placing us nearer to that equality of prices which would admit of unrestricted trade, and estabhsh our prosperity on a solid basis. Pla?i of Finance pursued by M. Necker. — The financial concerns of France have been, in gene- ral, badly conducted, and taxation has, time im- memorial, been a subject of complaint among a people whose national character is far from que- rulous. This was more particularly the case in the latter years of Louis XV., after winding up the arrears of the expensive and inglorious war con- cluded in 1763. The 18,000,000/. constituting, at that time, the clear produce of the taxes of" France, were levied in so aukward and circuitous a mode as to cost 4 or 5,000,000/. in the collection, and a sum perhaps equally large in the injury arising from the obstructions which it caused to the free course of industry. Different provinces in France were subject, in these days, to different imposts ; the frontier lines were discriminated from each 39^ Taxation ; other by custom-houses Hke the boundaries of distinct kingdoms; the transit of merchandize was taxed ; the douaniers or custom-house officers multiplied beyond all due proportion. At that time, as at present, the imposts on consumption were comparatively small, and a great part of the revenue arose from a land tax similar in its nature, but more unequal in its collection than the present Fonder. M. Necker, the first real financier whom France had seen for a century, received his official ap- pointment in I77G, and had hardly begun to intro- duce order into this chaotic mass, when, in 1778, the course of circumstances caused the French court to depart from its pacific policy. The humane character of Louis XVI., and the necessity of con- tinued economy, were strong arguments for the preservation of peace, but the cause of the Ameri- can colonists, when opposed to England, could not be otherwise than popular while the French had fresh in recollection, a war in which we had struck such fatal blows at their nav}% and deprived them of so many Trans- Atlantic possessions. Louis and his ministers were thus obliged to yield to the public voice ; fleets were to be equipped, and con- siderable expence to be incurred. M. Necker, on whom the task of providing the pecuniary supplies devolved, was aware of two things ; first, that at that time the imposition of fresh taxes would be wholly unadvisable ; and next, that eventually the resources of France would be more tlian equal to her burdens. He conceived accordingly the plan of meeting the new demands by annual loans, for the interest of which, he made provision, not by taxes, but by the abolition or reduction of pen- sions, and of many unnecessary appendages of the Plan ofM. Necker. 399 court. At that time, as at present, France cxlii- bited few sinecures of the first magnitude, but an endless list of unmerited grants, of supernumerary offices, of unauthorized appropriations of the public money. The confidence inspired by the i)ersonal respectability of the minister, and the prospect of great improvements in the fiscal administration of France, induced the monied interest on the con- tinent to subscribe to the loans of M. Necker, without the guarantee of a parliament, or the al- lotment of specific funds for the payment of the interest. In this manner, he succeeded (Flennet on French Finance) in borrowing 15,UUU,0UU/. sterling, in three years, at moderate interest, and would, doubtless, have conducted the war to its close, without a single impost, had not circum- stances led to his abrupt retirement from ofHce in 1781. Does this example supply any inference ap})li- cable to our present situation ? If the amount borrowed by M. Necker, appear small, it was far from small when we consider the limited resources of France. Then, as at present, her towns were neither numerous nor large : the majority of her inhabitants were scattered over rural districts ; her manufacturers were adequate only to home con- sumption ; the increase of her population was slow. How different the present state and prospect of productive industry in this country, possessed as it is, of rich mines, extensive water communication, abundant capital, — the whole with a j)o])ulation rapid in its increase, and formed to habits of busi- ness. With such auxiliaries, is it going too far, to ask, whether we are not justified in looking to the future with the favourable expectation entertained by M. Neckei", especially as in one material point 400 The Question uj wc may reason witli a confidence greater than lie could feel, — we mean the hope of continued peace ? Nothing indeed can be more flattering than our prospects, provided we are enabled to give relief to the suffering part of the public. This, it is evident, could be best accomplished by cancelling or reduc- ing the more injurious of our fiscal burdens; and we now proceed to enquire whether circumstances justify our imitating the example of the French minister, and substituting a small annual loan for a portion of the taxes repealed. We say a portion, because there seems little doubt, that the produc- tiveness of the remaining imposts would be so much increased, as to enable government, if they deter- mined on borrowing i;f 4,000,000 annually, to repeal taxes to the extent of 5 or ^6,000,000. The Question of a small Annual Loan in lieu of Taj^es. State of the Monied Interest. — Amidst all the losses and complaints of late years, the monied in- terest, that mixed body of bankers, retired mer- chants and capitalists, have, in a great measure, escaped the general distress. Their situation has exempted them from the fluctuations experienced by many other classes ; by our agricultuiists, our manufacturers, our exporters of merchandize to the West Indies and America. The monied in- terest comprises a number of old estabUshments, who conduct their business more conformably to rule and calculation than several other portions of the mercantile community : they are strangers to the hazard of credit, and the still greater hazard of distant markets. The cloud, which, from the depreciation of our currency, overhung them in a .swr/// Annual Loan. \0\ tlie latter years of the war, has disappeared, and the late reduction of" the rate of interest, consider- able as it is, may be considered as innoxious to them, their incomes having gained, or being likely to gain, in value what they have lost in amount. The fact is, that they have periodically at their disposal, particularly after receipt of the public ■dividends, a fund of ready money, which has caused the rise in our stocks, so idly ascribed to a sinking fund, and M'hich has also afforded large supplies to the exchequers of our neighbours. Transmission of Capital to Foreign Countries. — The interest of money is always highest in the least advanced communities, and capital has conse- quently a tendency to move thither, not rapidly, we allow, but progressively. It is thus that at pie- sent it begins to be withdrawn from England, ex- actly as in the 17th and 18th centuries it was with- drawn from Holland. Last year was remarkable for the extent of such transfers, and by writers who do not scruple to take an extra latitude in a popu- lar argument, the imprudence with which these advances were made, and the losses of which they were productive, might be made the ground of a vehement ap})eal in siip})ort oi" oiu- })lan of ex- changing a ])art of our taxation for an annual loan. We are desirous, however, to avoid all such ap- peals, and to state deliberately and impartially, the arguments on either side. ii\ on the one hand, it be asked ** Why should we not render subser\ ic-nt to a reduction of taxes that periodical surplus of capital which has for some years been transtcrreti to foreigners ? " the advocate of conunercial free- ilom may say on the other, *' You are not at liberty to exercise any interference, or to divert D D 1'0'J 'J'hti Question o/' ca))itnl from tlio direction wliicli it naturally takes: its transfer to foreign countries may be, for au<^ht yon know, tlic most profitable means of employing it in a national as in an individual sense. The capitalist who, living in England, draws a large in- come fi'oin the Freiich or American funds, is en- abled to make a larger expenditure, to be a more liberal contributor to the productive industry of his own Country." Between these contending opinions what course ought we to hold ? The last mentioned argument would be excellent against any legal restraint which might exist, in the shape of a tax or otherwise, on the transmission of capital abroad ; a restraint which would be quite as absurd as the lately re- pealed prohibition to export specie. Farther, were our burdens no greater than those of our neighbours, or were the doctrine of freedom of trade generally adopted, we should be inclined to look with a fa- vourable eye on the most unreserved transmission of capital. But at present we are obliged to reason in a more narrow circle, and to calculate what peculiar aid we can oppose to peculiar pressure. Our situation is unfortunately anomalous; our taxation higher than that of any other country ; and if, as we have reason to apprehend, its magni- tude be such as to reduce the profit of stock, and in that manner to cause, or to be likely to cause, capital to leave us, the objection of the political economist, however true in the abstract, ceases to apply, or becomes in a manner, lost in the urgency of circumstances. Though we are thus hardly called on to combat objections, it may be useful, in this day of theoriz- ing, to remark that the application of general prin- ciples in regard to money transactions is found to u small Annudl Loan. 403 require no sliglit share of the caution that lias proved necessary in otiier de))artnients — our corn trade, our navigation, our custom duties. To explain our meaning by example. In 1815, Mr. llobinson, at that time President of the Board of Trade, was as fully convinced as Mr. Horner, or any member of the House, of the radical im- })olicy of our corn laws ; but while he regretted that they should ever have been enacted, or that agriculturists should ever have relied on so un- natural a support, he felt that any change nuist be gradual, that the advantage from a return to sound principle would be remote, and the evils of transi- tion immediate. The Agricultural Conunittee of 18^1 acknowledged, in like manner, the benefit of iiee trade, but felt the inexpediency of its early ado})tion : while in regard to our navigation, the bills brought forward during the session of 18*;^^, for repealing the obnoxious part of our statutes, experienced, as is well known, nuich opposition and curtailment from the same cause. A\ e must not, howe\ er, be understood as ])ro- posing any obstacles to the transmission of capiUil abroad, except that of giving an additional open- ing for its investment at home. We are perfectly aware, that the ])rinciples of ])roductive industry prescribe, in the words of V^auban, (jtie raf^gtiil Ic viieiw nnplotje est ccliii que le roi laissc tnitrc ks mains dc ses sujcts — that government should, if j)ossible, avoid draining it from the pocket of the individual in the shape of either a loan or tax. Were it practicable to avoid both, we should be reluctant to urge, or even to listen to the project of an annual loau, however justified by our prospect of increasing wealth. The question, however, has no such scope, being u u 'J 404 The Qffes/ion of unluckily confined to the alternative of taxins^ or borrowing ; and we a])peal to those wiio have studied the nature of our resources, wliether we cannot at present raise a given sum, for example .^4,000,000, with less injury as a loan than as a tax. Probabililj/ of Financial Relief — We should on on account suggest a transfer of a portion of our burdens to the next generation, were it probable that their situation would partake of that embarrass- ment which, since 1814, has borne so heavily on us. But whether we look to the increasing caution of our rulers, the resources arising from improvements in our national industry, or the diminution of oiu' burden by its repartition among augmenting num- bers, we find reason to consider the prospects of our successors far superior to our own. And though the assertion may excite a smile, it is, notwith- standing, true, that to relieve ourselves from a por- tion of our taxes, is an effectual method of prevent- ing loss to our posterity, inasmuch as the present pressure, if continued, would, by sending abroad the family of the annuitant, and, as we fear, the money of the capitalist, operate to curtail the fund destined to become in the hands of the next gene- ration the basis of national wealth. Would the proposed Loan affect the Rate of Interest ? — One of the chief features in the great transition from war to peace, was an increase of dis- posable capital, and considering the magnitude of this increase, we may well question, whether govern- ment ought not, several years ago, to ha\e made a demand on the monied interest for a loan, rather than on the public for taxes. If such would have 15 a amall Annual l.onn. 405 been at that time a Ht application to the national wound, there seems still less doubt of its being so at present. To take a few millions aniuially out of the money market would, doubtless, o])erate in some measure to retard the fall of interest, and the ad- vantage slow, but sure, which follows that fall ; but that it would do so in a slight degree seems proba- ble, whether we consider our present abundance, or our satisfactory prospects in regard to disposa- ble capital. The dread of scarcity of currency from the resumption of casii payments has j)roved ground- less; and there seems, assuredly, no reason to appre- hend an early demand for money for the payment of corn imports, still less for subsidies or military charges on the continent. The power of habit is in nothing more strongly exemplified than in the ap})ropriatiou of the disposa- ble funds of our monied men. Accustomed to a few simple securities, they have no idea of changing their investments, even under an alteration of cir- cumstances. Our bankers and city capitalists con- fine themselves to stocks, excliequer bills, or mer- cantile acceptances, (all convertible into money at short notice,) and have no idea of investing money on mortgage, still less of adventuring in trade, or making a permanent loan to a mercantile house. They look more naturally to foreign stocks, parti- cularly since business of that kind is transacted so largely on our own exchange. In what manner does this reasoning apply to the present question? It implies that government by giving a new opening to our capitalists in the form of a small annual loan, would withdraw comparatively little from the ac- commodation of our merchants and landed interest : the diminution, we believe, would hardly be felt, except in the demand for i'oreign stock. 1) D 3 1()() The Question of IVouId it affect the Price of Stocks ? — Tliis (lues- tion we shall answer first as it regards the public, and next in respect to the stockholders. Since the reduction of the five per cents, government aj)pcars to have hardly any greater interest in keeping u}) the funds than in maintaining the price of land, merchandize, or any other description of national property. The only direct advantage from a rise in the funds, would be the power of reducing the old four per cents, and the farther power of reduc- ing the new four j)er cents, five or six years hence. Any diminution of interest in the great mass of our debt, the three per cents, is a very doubtful and remote object : a result not likely to ensue, until after a long continuance of peace, and a conciu'rence of circumstances, which of themselves would mate- rially improve our financial condition. But, what- ever may be the probable time of the occurrence of such a power, there can be no doubt that to endea- vour to accelerate its arrival, in regard to either the three or the four per cents, by artificial means, w^ould be highly impolitic. The reasons against such a course are, even when briefly stated, (p. 360.) so direct and substantial, as to render it incumbent on every well-wisher to his country to dissuade it ; and nothing prevents our enlarging on the evils that would attend it, except a conviction that it can form no part of the plans of the present Chancellor of the Exchequer. Next, as to the effect of a loan on the interest of stockholders. Dividing these into the two classes of temporary and permanent depositors, and consi- dering the former as loan contractors, we shall soon find that they may safely venture on such a loan without the pledge of taxes. Four millions, bor- rowed at an interest of four per cent., would involve 17 a small Annual Loan. 407 an annual burden of 1G0,{XK)/. wliicli, if the plan of a sinking fund provision for eacii loan were retained, might be carried to 'iOO,000/., a sum not insignifi- cant certainly, but not equal to /la/f the addition that is annually making to our revenue by the in- creasing consumption of taxed articles. Mas such security, we may be allowed to ask, e\ er oficred on a war loan in the most brilliant days of our finance ? Lastly, as to permanent depositors and the j)ro- bable price of stocks for a scries of years. What have been the causes of the slow rise of stocks since the peace? The years 1811< and 1815 required heavy loans; 1815 was a season of general distress, but no sooner did our prosperity return in I8I7, than stocks rose and continued high during 1818, when the mismanagement of the French loan, and, soon after, the effect of overtrading in this country, produced a fall. These causes, joined to the general disquietude dining a trial (in 18'20) of unfortunate notoriety, delayed the rise of stocks ; and a farther delay took place from an ap})rehcnsion in that and the succeeding year that tiie magnitude of the agri- cultural distress would necessitate a reduction of the public dividends. Since then, however, the circumstances of the })ul)hc, and the amount of the revenue have both materially impro\ed. Two points will be readily admitted by the pei- manent de})Ositor in our fimds ; first, that wliatever conduces to the relief of the suffering classes has a tendency to raise stocks; and next, that a loan for the purpose of reducing taxes is altogether ihflerent in its operation on his pro})erty from a loan for the purpose of expenditure. I3y augmenting the value of money it augments /lis incomcy and aflbrds him a substantial return for any delay of rise in the mar- u D 1' 'U)8 The Question of ket price of stock, which may be attributable to the act of borrowing. Liviitation to borroxvhig. — Were tlie j)lan of an annual loan to be adopted, and found to answer, what limit, it may be asked, ought there to be to our borrowing ; at what time ought we to suspend our demand on our future resources ? Our answer is — " at the time when our taxation shall havebeen brought to a level with that of France and other countries, our rivals in manufacture." If in these countries the public biu'dens form 18 or 20 per cent, of the national revenue, let the same be considered the limit of taxation in England ; the point below which we make no attempt to reduce it, satisfied with the superiority given to our })roductive labour by our physical advantages, — our mines, and our command of water communication. RetreiicJiment. — Nor ought the adoption of the loan system, though productive of financial relief, by any means to lessen the demand on the part of the public for retrenchment : on the contrary, it would bring with it a direct motive for reduction, the effect of all abatement of taxation being to in- crease the value of money ; to add to the emolu- ments of the servants of the public. The allowance to Prince Leopold, for example, has been impercep- tibly, but substantially increased fi'om 50,000/. to 60,000/. by the fall in prices since passing the grant ; and if taxes are further reduced, it will, ere long, attain the value of 65,000/. It follows, that a reduction to a sum representing the value of 50,000/. at the date of the grant, niiglit take place without injury to the Prince, and without deviating from the spuit of the act of parliament. Have LoanSy in time of PeacCj been sanctioned by example ? — As yet, only by that of the United a small Annual Loan. U)[) States and some continental powers who, seekin<; their supplies fioni ahen capitalists, have no title to be held forth as an example to England. But, had Holland in former ages possessed that evi- dence of progressive increase of population and income, which at present ha})pily belongs to our country, her course would probably have been that which we recommend, and without any departure irom her habitual caution ; for it" in peace, wages, salaries, and profits are lower, and tlie poMer of present payment less, the labourers in tlie produc- tive field iu*e more numerous, the results of their exertion far more conducive to eventual pros- perity. During the late war, our national income was large but of uncertain duration : at present, it is reduced in amount, but much improved in prospect. If, in the former case, it was politic in govermnent to defray a large share of tlie current expence out of our passing gains, a different course is obviously suited to a state of ])eace. The Annu'Uij Bill. — These truths luue at last been felt, and the proceedings of Parliament in the last and preceding session, have evinced a considerable change in the measures of ministers. Till then, whatever might be their merits in regard to foreign "politics or commercial regulations, their financial arrangements were unsatisfactory to the attentive enquirer, discovering, apparently, little discrimination between a. state of war and ])eace, in regard to the power of bearing tiixes, and a very inadequate impression of the superiority of our progress to that of our neighbours. The mea- sures adopted previously to last year, seemed to proceed from the suggestions of merely practical inen — of men accustomed to estimate a finaneial j)roceeiling by its effect on the Stock KxcJiange, MO The Qucslion uf oil the mere monied interest, rather tliaii on the pnxhictive in(histry of the country at large. At las^ was brought forward, unexpectedly, the ])lan for exchanging life-interests in half pay and pen- sions for long annuities ; a jilan, which, since the moment of its announcement, we liave considered indicative of consequences considerably beyond the anticipation of the public. Its temporary failure, or, as we may now say, the delay of its success, was owing to the engagement being brought before the public on too extended a scale : the duration of the contract being such as naturally to startle men not then apprised of all the reasons which determine our rulers to adhere to a pacific course. But our confidence in it was unshaken, connected as it is with considerations on which we build the hope of farther and extensive relief. The adoption of such a measure confers a kind of official saiiction on views such as those we have endeavoured to take, and shows that in the highest quarter there prevails a conviction of the pro- mising nature of our prospects ; an assurance that our only desideratum is present relief. Of our suggestions in this, as in a previous chapter (p. 3il<.) it may, we trust, be said, that we propose to do nothing by surprise, by contri- vance, or by plausible calculation ; all may be gradual, voluntary, and open, where necessary, to recall. From cii'cumstances beyond the power of foresight, a great pressure has fallen on the present generation : it is proposed to transfer a part of it to future years, but on a plan that will leave those on whom it may devolve, whether of the present or of the next age, far less burdened than we now find ourselves. How singular, that a small Annual Loan. 411 ill all our distress since the peace, amid all the schemes for our relief^ none of this natiue should have been brought forward until the recent trans- fer of life interests into long annuities. Had our finances been administered by a statesman of the bold, inventive mind of Pitt, the increase of our population and the connection l)et\veen it and the in- crease of taxable income, would, ere this, have been made the ground-work of some decisive measure. Let it not be objected tiiat such was not his course during the period of his administration that passed in peace, and that the plan pursued for the supj)()rt of our credit after the American war, was the im- position of additional taxes. At that time the increase of our lumibers was less rapid, and for want of regular returns, was unperceived. The recent loss of our colonies forbade the expectation of a progressive extension of trade, and there were few examples in our history, of taxes repealed in the hope of stimulating })roductive industry. Mr. Pitt ])ursued, therefore, the only expedient within his knowledge, but had })eace been ])re- served after 1792, there can be little doubt that the result of the favourable state to which cir- cumstances had brought our finances, would have borne the stamp of his discriminating mind, and of the example given, under circumstances somewhat similar, by Sir R. Walpole : it would have been, not the support of the sinking fund, to an extent that would have afforded an inducement to send capital out of the country, but the repeal or reduc- tion of the taxes which interlered most directly with productive industry, in coufoiinity to the course recommended many years before by Dr. Smith.* * Wealth of Nations, vol. iii. 41 '2 I'lic Qucsliun <(J' an Aninidl Loan. The Period from lySt to 1798. — To niontion llie name of Pitt, is to recall the attention of tlie financial inquirer to the time, unluckily too short, when the plans of that minister were undisturbed by the expenditure of war ; we mean the interval from 1781< to 1793. No period of our history is, as far as regards our productive industry, entitled to an equal share of our atten- tion. The circumstances of that interval of peace were in many respects similar to those of the present time. Beginning in financial embarrass- ment, our prospects gradually brightened, and our trade flourished without the aid, as in a period of war, of artificial causes : all was the legitimate result of the application of capital and industry to the improvement of our national advantages. Agriculture prospered w^ithout a rise of prices : the revenue increased without new taxes : labour was paid not largely but satisfactorily, and the addition to the poor-rate was very gradual. Let us not imagine that the period in question pos- sessed peculiar advantages ; or that the progress of our cotton manufacture, and the troubles of France, placed our countrymen in those days on commanding ground : they felt severely the pres- sure of taxation, and were not altogether exempt from the pernicious operation of corn-laws. With confidence, therefore, may we conclude, that could but a part of our present burdens be removed, we should follow the career of productive industry with equal or superior advantage. CONCLUSION. We have now broui^ht our labour to a close, after endeavourinji; to exhibit a j)icture of our national situation, and enunieratini>' its various advantages and drawbacks, in a manner wliieli, wliatever may be thought of the degree of ability, will hardlv be arraigned on the score of partiality. Political allusions have been avoided as much as was at all practicable, in an inquiry in which statistical results were frequently aflfected by the decisions of the cabinet. If we have ventured on questions of great difficulty, and occasionally expressed opinions with a degree of confidence, it has proceeded from no other feeling than a consciousness of the advan- tage arising from command of time, and the opportunity of giving long-continued attention to a few select subjects. Summarij. — Our first chapter was appropriated to a much dis})uted question, the causes of the unexpected abundance of our h'nancial resources during the war, and their still more unexpected ilefi- ciency since the peace. This was followed by an in- quiry into the subject of " currency and exchange,*' which, uninviting and intricate as it is, could not with propriety be omitted in a work recjui ring- such frequent reference to changes in the value of money. The state of agriculture claimed a longer chapter and more ample details, as well from sym- Ml, Conclusion. patliy for a very numerous aiul respecta])lL' class, as iiom the importance of the sul)ject to the nation at large. The price of produce influencing so di- lectly the price of labour, it became an object of great solicitude to arrive at an opinion as little doubtful as possible in regard to our })ros})ect of the su])ply of corn both as to quantity and price. On that must, in all probal)ility, depend a variety of future measures : the regulation of wages, sala- ries, and money incomes, generally ; the degree of equality in the means of competition between our manufacturers and those of the continent ; and the latitude which may consequently be taken by government in removing the restrictions on our commercial intercourse. From these doubtful and anxious points we turned with satisfaction to the evidence of our progressive advance in agriculture, manufacture, . and the use- ful arts generally, accompanied, as it is, by a large increase in our population. Augmentation of na- tional power ; the prospect of continued peace ; the means of reducing taxes — are all consequences of our decided superiority to other nations in the progress of national improvement. The examination, in a subsequent chapter, of the fluctuations in the value of gold and silver, was prompted by a double cause — the revolutions in the value of money during the last thirty years ; and the evident disproportion existing at present, particularly in the metropolis, between the rate of wages and the cost of the maintenance of the in- dividual. A hope of being instrumental in cor- rectins these anomalies led to researches of which the object is to give a permanent and uniform value to money contracts ; to lessen the prevailing objec- tion to leases ; to give facilities to the commut- Conclusion. 415 ation of tithe ; and finally, to show annuitants that it is possible for them to make an abatement in the numeiical amount of money income without in- curring a sacrifice. In our concluding chapter we liave conveyed our ideas in regard to the operation of a sinking fund; the comparative weight of English and French taxation ; the growing nature ol' our re- sources ; and the prospect of a farther and con- siderable reduction of our burdens. It may appear somewhat singular to our readers that subjects of such general interest should not long ere this have been fully discussed ; that ques- tions of such importance to our welfare should not have been decisively answered. But in such re- searches the magnitude of the labour is found to exceed all previous calculation : the number of persons fitted for it by situation or habits is not great ; and, immersed as they generally are in official or professional pursuits, a long period elapses in this, as in the province of general his- tory, before an individual is enabled to bestow on such topics the time and attention they require. Comprehensive as the preceding investigations may appear, there still remain for discussion se\e- ral subjects of great interest. Our Trade. — Of our commercial history during the last thirty years, we propose a sketch as cir- cumstantial, and as carefully grounded on official documents as that which has been given of our Finances and our Aj^riculture. The fluctuations in our trade, the over-rating of our protits during M(') Cunrln.sion. the war, tlie tlistinctioii hetwcoi real aiitl nominal acltlitions to projjerty, are all suhjects which re(}iiire examination and perspicuous statement. Emigration, — Though the recent improvement in the state of" our productive industry has lessened the necessity of emigration, a disquisition into that subject would open views connected with the diffusion of civilization, not only in our colo- nies, but in many districts in Europe. The state of these is more backward than can well be con- ceived by the untravelled part of our countrymen. Though to send settlers to these neglected tracts would form no part of our policy, their improve- ment would be of interest to us, both as opening markets for our manufactures, and as proving to continental powers how much it is their policy to maintain peace, and to seek in the diffusion of civi- lization that increase of population and revenue which they have hitherto so fruitlessly attempted from conquest. Public Retrenchment. — This question, much as it has been discussed, still stands in need of an ex- position unconnected with party views, and found- ed on considerations strictly statistical, in parti- cidar the power of money in the purchase of commodities, and the extent of the change attend- ant on the transition from war to peace. Finance. — On this head we have communicated in the present Aolume only a part of our materials : to arrange and condense the remainder might tend to give clearness to official statements, and to support the arguments for a farther reduction of our burdens. Concluaiufu 117 Parallel between England and France. — We liave exhibited a comparison of the charges on agriculture, and of the general taxation of the two countries : but there remains much to com})are in regard to the sUite of trade and manufactujes ; of military and other public establishments j of educa- tion, science, and national usages. Tithe and Poor-rate. — These subjects acquire an increased interest from tiie course of recent cir- cumstances : — the im])robabihty of any great or permanent rise in agricultural produce : tlie higlily beneficial measure about to be carried into effect in Ireland ; and the evident ability of our monied in- terest to afford relief to their landed brethren, whenever an eligible plan shall be biought forward by government. Of this plan the main features would, })erhaps, be as to tithe, redemption at a moderate \aluation; and as to poor-rate, the ecjua- hzation of the burden throughout a parish or dis- trict, by assessing (see page 18.5,) the income of all instead of that of the farmer or householder only. What is the present ])rosj)ect in regard to the price of conmiodities generally? That a rise is very unlikely, and that in all ])robability no injury would accrue to the clergy from their accejMing a money income in lieu of tithe for a few years, until, by the purchase of land or otherwise, arrangements should be made for a permanent commutation. Our West India Colonies. — The attention of the ])ublic has lately been directetl to two (juestions, — a reduction of the duly on East Iiulia sugar, and the gradual abolition of slavery in our West India colonies. The discussions in both lia\e liitlierlo 418 Ciynclu.sioii. been coiiclucted in ii manner of wliicli, to l)oir()W the expression of a foreign historian, la moderation 7i\'st nullcment h caractcre. Neither party has shown much sohcitude to observe a medium, or to ascertain decisively a few fundamental points ; such as, whether the purchase of sugar in India at a low price is or is not practicable to a large extent; or, whether, in regard to the West Indies, it is not the interest of the planter to co- operate cordially in the accomplishment of the pro- posed change, afiter the principle of compensation shall be distinctly admitted. These several topics it is our intention to discuss, in an additional volume, whenever circumstances shall afford the time requisite for such laborious re- g,earches. APPENDIX. APPENDIX CHAPTER 11. (Page 20.) Expence of the late WarSy rccJconing from the begin7ii72g of 1793 to the beginnmg of\8l6. MONEY RAISED. War of 1793. Years. j By Taxes. By Loans. Total. £ £ ,£ 1793 17,170,4-00 4,500,000 21,670,400 1794. 17,308,811 11,000,000 28,308,811 1795 1 17,858,454 18,000,000 35,858,454 1796 18,737,760 25,500,000 44,237,760 1797 20,654,650 32,500,000 53,154,650 1798 30,202,915 1 7,000,000 47,202,915 1799 35,229,968 18,500,000 53,729,968 1800 33,896,464 20,500,000 54,396,464 1801 35,415,096 28,000,000 63,415,096 1802 37,240,213 25,000,000 62,240,213 *263,714,731 200,500,000 464,214,731 Deduct sums for the ser- vice c )f Ireland - - 13,000,000 13,000,000 187,500,000 451,214,731 Dr. Hamilton on the National Debt, pp. 157. 289. [A] [2] The late Wars ,■ War of 1803. [App. Years. By Taxes. By Loans. Total. £ £ £ 1803 37,677,063 15,202,931 52,879,994 1804. 45,359,4-42 20,104,221 65,463,663 1805 49,659,281 27,931,482 77,590,763 1806 53,304,254 20,486,155 73,790,409 1807 58,390,225 23,889,257 82,279,482 1808 61,538,207 20,476,765 82,014,972 1809 63,405,294 23,304,691 86,709,985 1810 66,681,366 22,428,788 89,110,154 1811 64,763,870 27,416,829 92,180,699 1812 63,169,854 40,251,684 103,421,538 1813 66,925,835 54,026,822 120,952,657 1814 69,684,192 47,159,697 116,843,889 1815 70,403,448 46,087,603 116,491,051 770,962,331 388,766,925 1,159,729,256 Deduc t the proportio n of the above rais ed for the servi ce of Ireland - - 46,612,106 1,113,117,150 Note. — See a very short but clear summary, entitled, " Statement of the Revenue and Expenditure of Great Britain, in each year, from 1803 to 1814, by C. Stokes." Summary. — Instead of dwelling on these complicated statements, we invite the reader to fix his attention on the following abstract in round numbers : War of 1793. Total money raised by loans and taxes, ex- clusive of the loans for the service of Ireland, about - - jf 450,000,000 Deduct the probable charge in Great Bri- tain and Ireland, had peace been pre- served, 18,000,000/. a-year. - 180,000,000 Balance constituting the war expenditure - 270,000,000 A pp.] Amount of our Expenditure. [3] War of 1803. Total money raised, exclusive of the sums for the service of Ireland, about - .^1,113,000,000 The deduction for the probable expence of a peace establishment, may, after 1803, be called 22,000,000/. *a-year, ;is well on account of our augmented population, as because in the table of the war of 1803, the charge of collect- mg the revenue is not deducted ; say 22,000,000/. for 1 3 years - - 286,000,000 Balance constituting the war expenditure 827,000,000 Average war expenditure from 1793 to 1802, both inclusive . _ _ 27,000,000 Average war expenditure from 1803 to 1815, both inclusive - - .. 63,500,000 Total charge of the two wars, exclusive of an ample allowance for a supposed peace estabhshment, nearly - - 1,100,000,000 Explanatory Remark. — This amount, adopted in the text, as representing the total of our war expenditure, may require some explanation. It is exclusive of the sums raised for the service of Ireland during the twenty-three years in question, whether by taxes in that country, or by loans in England ; on the other hand, it comprizes a large sum appro|)riated in England not to the war, but to the re- duction of the national debt. Still, as the amount of money thus applied did not materially exceed the sums raised for the service of Ireland, and as it forms no part of our object to aim at fractional accuracy, we may safely con- sider the sums thus left out as balancing each other, and assume the 1,100,000,000/. as a representation of our total war expenditure. Addition to the Public Debt. — Though the expenditure of the war of 1803 exceeded that of the war of 1793, in the ratio of more than three to one, the addition made to our public debt was not at all in that proportion ; the war of 1793 having added to it fully 200,000,000/., that of r,A] 2 ' [4] Compnris(m of Exports in fVar unci in Peace. [App 1803 about 260,000,000/. In the war of 180S, tlie far rrieattr part of the expence was defrayeil by the property- tax and other supplies raised within the year. Such were the total sums raised for our war expenditure: but it is fit to recollect that they do not indicate with ac- curacy the extent of sacrifice connected with the war. There remain, as we shall see presently, considerations of great importance on either side of the account ; such, on the one hand, as the loss arising from the transition to peace ; on the other, the amount of supply derived from the extra profits attendant on a state of war. (Page 25.) — Explanation of the ^^ official Falue of Goods." — The " official value of goods" means a comput- ation of value formed with reference, not to the prices of the current year, but to a standard fixed so long ago as 1696, the time when * the office of Inspector-general of the Imports and Exports was established, and a Custom-house Ledger opened to record the weight, dimensions, and value of the merchandize that passed through the hands of the officers. One uniform rule is followed year after year in the valuation, some goods being estimated by weight, others by their dimensions ; the whole without reference to the current or market price. This course has the advantage of exhibiting with strict accuracy any increase or decrease in the quantity of our exports. Next, as to the value of these exports in the market. In 1798, there was imposed a duty of two per cent, on our exports, the value of which was taken, not by the official standard, but by the declaration of the exporting mer- chants. Such a declaration may be assumed as a repre- sentation of, or at least an approximation to, the current or market price of merchandize ; there being, on the one hand, no reason to apprehend that merchants would pay a per centage on an amount beyond the market value; while, on the other, the liability to seizure affiarded a security against under-valuation. These two scales of valuation, we mean the official regis- ter and the current price, affiDrd the means of solving a question of no slight importance, viz. the comparative value of merchandize in the present age and at the re- mote date of 1696. Some articles, in particular coffee, • Chalmers' Historical View of the Domestic Economy of Great Britain and Ireland. 1812. Ai'P.J Comparison of E.iporls in War and in Peace. [5] cottons, hardware, are cheaper than in the rei^n of King Wilham ; but the great majority were, during the late war, so much dearer, that it was usual to calculate the real or market value at 50 per cent, above the oflicial value. Since the peace the case is greatly altered, the market price of goods having, as we shall perceive from the following state- ment, been greatly reduced. 1814. - - J^.>6,59 1,000 1815. - - 60,984,000 1816. - - 51,260,000 1817. - - 53,125,000 Comparison of Exports in Jl'ar mid in Peace. 1. Total Exports from Great Britain, conjjnisinghome pro- duce and manufacture, as well as foreign and colonial goods, the whole according to the official value. 1818. - - .€56,851,000 1819. - - 46,912,000 1820. - - 51,731,000 1821. - - 56,445,000 Annual average of the eight years of peace, above ._-_-- .€'54,200,000 This is the average referred to in the text, p. 27. We subjoin, in the nex^place, the declared value of our exports since the peace ; in other words, their value ac- cordins: to the state of the markets in each year. Exports from Great Britain, taking home produce and manufactures at the value declared by the merchants, and adding in the case of foreign or colonial goods 25 per cent, to the official value, an addition considerably less than that which was made in war. 1814. 1815. 1816. 1817. .€73,489,000 74,372,000 61,138,000 58,032,000 1818. - - €'64,263,000 1819. - - 52,031.000 1820. - - 52,982,000 1821. about 54,000,000 Annual average of the eight years of peace from 1814 to 1821, both inclusive, men- tioned in the text, p. 28. - - - j^63,787,500 In either way, the value of our exports is greater since the peace than during the war. II. For those who may wish to carry farther these calcu- lations of our exports, and of their effect on our productive indusUy, we add a return of that part of our exports which is illustrative of the extent of our home trade. [A] :J [6] Comparison of Exports in War and in Peace, [^rr. War. Exports of Home Produce and Manufacture from Great Britain, previous to and during the late wars. Average of six years ending with 1792 Ditto 1798 Ditto 1804 Ditto 1810 In Money of the particular year. £22,131,000 25,658,000 36,817,000 43,575,000 Supposed to be equivalent at the prices of 1792 to £22,131,000 23,325,000 30,681,000 33,519,000 These sums are calculated by adding 50 per cent, to the official value, so that ample prices are allowed for the period of war. Exports of Home Produce and Manufacture from Great Britain sijicc the 2)eace, according to the value declared by the exporting merchants. Years. Money of the parti- cular year. Supposed to be equiva- lent at the prices of 1792 to 1814 1815 - - 1816 - - 1817 - - 1818 - - 1819 - - 1820 - - 1821. about ^€47,851,453 53,217,445 42,955,256 43,626,253 48,903,760 37,940,000 38,620,000 40,000,000 ^f'37,000,000 42,000,000 34,000,000 35,000,000 39,000,000 35,000,000 38,000,000 40,000,000 The returns for these years of peace, when compared with years of war, sufficiently establish the g)-eater value of our exports since the peace. They may appear at variance with a statement published in a work of very wide circu- lation, (Quarterly Review, No. LII., p. 534.) in which the exports of three years of war, 1811, 1812, 1813, are con- trasted with three years of peace, 1819, 1820, 1821, and the amount of the former found to be considerably greater. This, however, is to be understood of foreign merchandize, and was owing to the extent of our transit trade during the 9 App.] Comparison of Exports m War and in Peace. [7] years when neutrals had very little direct navigation, and were obliged to carry almost every article through the me- dium of this country. But a transit trade may be very large, without making any great addition to the productive powers of a country, and our object being to show the con- nexion between the amount of our exports and the degree of activity existing among our population, our tables are confined to returns of our home produce and manufac- tures. The reduction to money of a uniform value (that of 1 792) is expedient for a period in which money lias varied so greatly : it removes a part of the exaggeration to which we habituated ourselves during the war, and simplifies the com- parison with years of peace. Decline in the Price of Goods. — We subjoin a farther extract illustrative of the general fall in the price of mer- chandize since 1818. Exports from Great Britain, of Home Produce and Manufactures. Years. Official value. The declared or mar- ket value. 1818 - 1819 - 1820 - 1821, exclusive of our export to Ireland ^44,564,000 35,634,000 40,240,000 1 40,195,000 ^48,904,000 37,940,000 38,620,000 35,826,000 Prices, as our readers may remember, began to fall very soon after the peace: yet in 1818 they were still from 10 to 12 per cent, above the official value. In 1819, a year of stagnant trade, the market value fell to within 7 per cent, of the olTicial value, and since 1820 it has been below it. By this we are to understand, not that all merchandize is cheaper than in the reign of King William, when the standard of official value was formed ; but that cottons and hardware, (in particular cottons) form so very large a proportion of our exports as to counter- balance the rise in woollens, leather, and other articles, which are still somewhat dearer tiian they were a century ago. — Returns such as these are of the highest interest to the political arithmetician. r.Ai + [8] C'uiiufxioii between Expenditure inul Jtcvtiiue. [ArF. Effect of Taxation. — Taxation is injurious chiefly in two ways: in an individual sense, when the parties assessed have not the means of indemnifying themselves ; and in a national sense, when the magnitude of the burden is such as to reduce the profits of labour and capital materially below those of other countries. The former receives at pre- sent a distressing exemplification in the case of our agricul- turists ; the latter has long prevailed in the Dutch pro- vinces, at least in the maritime provinces of Holland and Zealand, in which the charge of defence against the sea is superadded to heavy demands of a political nature. Such also has been, in a considerable degree, our own situation since the peace ; that it was by no means so during the war, has, we trust, been satisfactorily shown in the text. We consider, therefore, our taxes during the war in the light of circulation, without ascribing to them all the de- trimental effects alleged by the majority of political econo- mists, and still less the beneficial operation attributed to them by others. The latter opinion, singular as it may seem, is nearly a century old, and was supported by re- peated references to the case of Holland before her decline. In this country it seemed to receive a striking confirmation from the stagnation that followed the peace, as the public did not take sufficiently into account how much the circu- lation of ^onotcer/ money had been the cause of the general activity during the war. [9] APPENDIX TO CHAPTER III. Rise of Prices during the War. Ccnmtry Labourer. — Computation of tlie annual expence of the family of an agricultural labourer, supposed to con- sist of 5- persons ; calculated chiefly from a table of the expence of 66 families of labourers, in different parts of England, collected by Sir F. Eden. In the year 1792. In 1813. In 182S. Bread, butcher meat, beer, and 1 £ s. ^' s. ^' s. other provisions of home > 16 32 17 growth ~ " " J Tea, sugar, and foreign articles 2 3 3 Rent - - - 1 13 2 2 Fuel and candles - - 2 10 3 10 3 Clothes and washing - -4-7 6 10 6 Contingencies - - 10 10 10 •i^T b J^ b .£S2 b To'wn Mechanic, — Computed cxjiencc at diflferent dates, of the family of a mechanic living in a provincial town, and supposed to consist, as in the case of the agriculturist, of 5* persons. In the year I79'i. In 18i;{. In 1823. Bread, butcher meat, beer, and S ,ii' s. st' s. .=€' s. other provisions of home V20 3S 21 growth - - -J (Iroceries and other provisions ) , ,^ - /, *.■ ,. * ^ !• 10 I (i o -} imported Rent of cottage or rooms Fuel and light Clothes and washing Scliool fees, apothecary's bill, } and other contingencies - S 2 10 \ '1- 3 f) 4 7 11 10 i-' s ji 1 .J.\'l L t:? r>'2 [10] liise uj Prices during the War. [Apr. The Middle Classes. — Comparative estimate of tlie ex- pellee ill (liflercnt years of house-keeping in a family of the middle class, supposed to reside in London. In the year 1792. In 1813. In 1823. ^ S. £ S. £ s. House rent - - 60 100 90 Assessed taxes and poor rate 18 4-7 4-0 Wages; two women servants 18 22 22 Clothes - - - 60 85 70 Boots and shoes - - 9 18 16 Wine, spirits and strong beer 16 35 30 Table beer - - - 7 11 9 Tea, sugar, and other groceries 22 38 35 Fuel - - - 24 35 30 Light, viz. candles and oil- 60 100 80 Washing - - - 16 25 22 Bread - - - 25 50 25 Butcher meat - - - 25 4-5 30 Milk, butter, fish, cheese - SO 85 70 Education - - -14-0 22 20 Medical attendance - -14-0 20 20 Furniture; annual repairs, and) j^ ^ 24 20 purchases ~ " "/ Incidents, such as postage, sta- k tionery, charity, pocket dis- >35 55 50 bursements - - J Expences of a less necessary-N character, such as excursion I __ _ rr. r» ^<^ « . -J ^, >30 50 40 to the sea side, or the ( country - - -J Expence of company - - 35 60 50 Furniture ; interest on the mo- 1 ney invested in its purchase; > 42 63 53 also its insurance against fire \ ^^540 0^900 0£750 We are next to exhibit these charges in a more concise form, classing them under specific heads, and showing the per-centage, or proportion borne by each head ; thus : — Ari'O Rise of Prices during the War. [H] Bread, butcher meat, beer, "^ and other provisions of home > growth or manufacture - -j Provisions, such as groceries, 1 of foreign produce -J Clothes and washing Rent _ _ _ Fuel and light Contingencies Expence of the familyof acoun- try labourer. Parts in 100. 55 20 10 _H 100 Expence of tilt" town me- chanic. I'arts ia 100. 42 10 19 8 8 13 100 A family of the middle class ex- pending between 500 and 800/. a-year in Lon- don, or nearly 500 in a pro- vincial town. Parts in 100. Bread, butcher meat, beer, and "1 other provisions of home > growth - ~ 'J Provisions, such as groceries of foreign growth Clothes and washing House rent Assessed taxes and poor rate - Fuel and light Education, medical attendance, repairs, and occasional pur chases of furniture Travelling, entertaining compa-^ ny, and other less necessary > expences - - -J Servants' wages - - - Incidents _ - - 1 *} 25 A family of larger income, expending 1000/. and up- wards. Parts in 100, 20 18 14^ 10 10 7 4i 6 3 100 13 14 5i lOi 100 In calculating these proportions, we have taken the re- sults, not of any particular year, but of a number of years. [12] Hisr (>/ rriccs i/uri/i^ the War. [A PP. Com para live Comfort o/' the labour iu<^ (.'lasses in War and Peace. — 'J'hc expcnce of the lahouriiip^ classes is, of course, confined to the necessaries ot life, and the above sunnnary shows clearly the greater proportion of their income that is appropriated to the purchase of food. Now as food rose (luring the war more than any other head of exjience, it follows that the ratio of enhancement was greater in the case of the working classes, than in that of their superiors. On the part of the middle and iipj)er ranks, IGO/. or 170/. were recjuired to make those purchases for which 100/. sufficed in 1792; but on the part of tlie lower orders 180/. were probably not more than adequate. It thus becomes a question whether, after all the rise that took place in wages, the condition of the labouring classes during the war was more comfortable than in 1792. That at j)resent it is much better, will at once a})pear from an inspection of the preceding tables, for while wages have been but little lowered, provisions have fallen greatly, and the reduction of housekeeping since 1814, which to the middle classes has been only about 20 per cent., is nearly twice as much to their inferiors. Rise iji the Price of Corn. — Towards the close of the war the price of corn, butclier meat, and most articles of country produce, became double that of the year 1792, which, considering the proportion borne by provisions to our total consumption, might have justified our computing at 33 per cent., the addition thus made to our national ex- penditure. But as this extreme rise lasted only a few years, we have called it in the text 30 per cent. Causes of this Rise in Corn. — These shall be fully ex- plained in our chapter on agriculture: at present we state them very briefly ; viz. 1. The rise in labour and other farming charges attend- ant on the war. 2. The occurrence of a series of bad or indiffei-ent sea- sons, 179I-, 1795, 1799, 1800, 1811. These two causes raised the quarter of wheat from 50s. to 80a'., where, in all probability, it would have stopped, had not, 3. The depreciation of our currency after 1809 sub- jected our import of corn to an enhancement so great, as to cany our average, fiom SO^'. to lOOy. App.] Rise of Prices durmg the War. [13] Are such Causes likely to he operative in future ? — Inter- ference with our currency is, in all probability, excluded from the creed of our rulers, and a rise in the price of labour seems out of the question in a season of peace. Of the remaining cause of enhancement, the occurrence of bad or indifferent seasons, nothing can be said, except that so long as peace shall continue, the degree of rise j)roceeding from it, will be greatly checked by the facility of import. Enhancement of Labour. — The proportion of rise at- tributed in the text to " Labour," may apjiear somewhat below the mark, since the rate of wages and salaries was doubled, or nearly doubled, in the course of the war, while our table of housekeeping expenditure is found, on com- paring the years 1792 and 1813, to exhibit a large addi- tion under the different heads, (clothes, furniture, house- rent, &c.) affected by rise of labour. These considerations, however, are subject to material qualifications. They apply only to the upper classes, since our humbler countrymen per- form service for themselves, and exclude wages from the list of their charges. Next, in regard to one very extensive de- partment, agriculture, the rise proceeding from "Labour" is comprized in the 30 per cent, attributed, in our sununary, to the enhancement arising from " Provisions." Add to this, in the third place, that in various manufactures, such as cot- ton and hardware, the additional cost proceeding from rise of wages, was balanced by improved methods of working, and by the application of machinery. On the whole, therefore, it seems that we may account an addition of 20 per cent, to our general expenditure, a fair representation of the rise of prices during the war, as far as such rise is attributable to enhancement of labour. Paper Curreyicy — its Depreciation. — It may occur to our readers, that in the summary of the causes of enhance- ment in the text, paper currency ought to have found a place along with taxation, rise of labour, &.c. Allowance, however, is made for its operation in our estimate of the enhancement of corn, and of the other imported articles, cotton, wool, tobacco, the cost of which was so greatly increased towards the close of the war by the decline of our paper. Annuitajits on Mortgage. — After explaining in the text the loss sustained by sucli annuitants in one point of view, [l-t] Rise oj Prict'a f/nrt'?i^ ike War. [Api». il is fit to add tliiit in anotlier, vi/. keeping up the nitc of interest, the eliect of the war proved fa vou ruble to them. Had i)eace continned after 1792 their debtors, instead of contimiiiig to ])ay them 5 per cent, interest, would have obtained loans at -l-j or 4 per cent., and would, doubtless, liave availed themselves of the power of paying off or re- ducing the interest on their mortgages, in the manner so generally practised during the last and present year. D5J APPENDIX TO CHAPTER IV. Oil)' Currency mid Exchanges. On the Amount of Dank of England Notes in Circidation. — The circulation of money is generally considered under two heads ; that of the larger sums, which takes place between wholesale dealers ; and that of tiie smaller, which ap})lies to retail, the payment of wages, and otlier petty transactions. Between wholesale dealers money circulates with rapidity : bank notes, lUce coin, being wholly unproductive, any su- pei'fluous stock of them is exchanged as quickly as possible for mercantile acceptances, the purchase of government stock, or other securities readily convertible into cash. In London, the vicinity of bankers to each other, and the power of receiving an immediate supj)ly on a deposit of securities, enable banking-houses (Bullion Report, p. 26. and Evidence, p. 123.) to lessen greatly the amount kept by them as a reserve or unproductive fund. Add to this, that whatever renders money abundant in the metropolis has a speedy effect on the kingdom at large ; so intimate is the connexion between town and country, so extensive the cor- respondence (Evidence Bullion Report, pp. 123, 124-, 125.) of bill and money agents. If we assume six weeks as the medium term of bills discounted at tlie bank, and suppose the money to change hands once in two tlays, the result is that 100,000/. thus obtained will, in the course of tlie six weeks that the bill remains uncalled for, circulate about 2,000,000/. of merchandize. How great, then, must have been the distress of trade in the latter months of 1796, and the early part of 1797, when our circulating medium was contracted by two or three millions : how seasonable the f I G] Our Currenn) and Errhan{res. lelicraflbrJcil in the course of 1797, by the resumption of discounts on their former scale ! An hirrraxe of Batik of England notes is not condush^ •proof of an increase of our circulating medium at large. — If our readers are reluctant to admit this, we must remind them of a point in which the public opinion was long equally positive, viz. that we received an annual sum of money from foreign countries, in payment of our profits or balance of trade. This was a favourite notion with our ancestors, and is still a prevalent impression among our practical men. The balance was even reduced to specific computation, the received mode of calculating it having been to deduct the amount of our imports from tliat of our exports, and assume that the difference must be profit, pay- able to us in hard cash : a comfortable doctrine certainly, and one which, had it been well founded, would have brought among us, in the course of the last century, a sum httle short of 400,000,000/. sterling. This is mentioned merely as an example of the hazard of deducing an infer- ence from appearances : in regard to the present question, the increase of Bank of England paper, the doubt arises from our having no power to discriminate how far such increase forms an addition to our circulation, or is merely a substitution of paper for coin sent abroad. Or, if the state of exchange be considered as affording, in some mea- sure, an index in that respect, what means have we of ascertaining another material point ; viz. how far an extra issue of Bank of England notes may not be a substitution for a corresponding amount of country bank paper with- drawn from circulation ? This was, doubtless, the case in 1810 and 1811, a time when a number of country banks became either insolvent or discredited by the insolvency of their neighbours. Again, on the fall of prices in 1815 and 1816, there took place in our paper currency a reduction of several millions ; but as the Bank of England experienced no variation of consequence, the inference is, that its paper must have been substituted in various districts for the diminished circulation of the country banks. Finally, we have the authority of both the Bullion Report, (p. 26.) and of that of the Bank Committee of 1819, that no satisfactory conclusions are to be drawn from the amount of Bank of England paper in circulation : a declaration of great im- portance, since the increase of that circulation formed, all along, to the antagonists of the bank, the fundamental argument for the charge of over issue. 21 App.] Our Cmrenn/ and Exchanges, [17] Fluctuations in the Circulation of Bank of England Notes. — Were we to attempt calculation on u subject necessarily conjectural, we mean how far additions to the circulation of the Bank of England formed an increase of our currency, or were merely a substitution for coin sent abroad, we should begin by considering in tlie latter sense all notes of 1^. and 2/., and confine our attention to the fluctuations in notes of 51. and upwards. The addition made to the latter, in the years 1797 and 1798, appears to have done little more than replace the contraction caused by the general embarrassment and distrust of the early years of tlie war. In 1799, 1800, and 1801, there took place an increase of nearly two millions, proceeding from several causes, par- ticularly the export of coin, and the general rise in the price of commodities. From the end of 1802 to that of 1808 there was hardly any increase; a circumstiuice in a high degi-ee remarkable, when we consider the extension of our productive industry, the farther rise of prices, and the con- tinued exemption of the Bank from cash payments. From 1809 to 1814 the case was altogether different, the circu- lation increasing four, five, six, and even seven millions above its amount in the preceding period. Of this the causes were various ; first, the almost complete expori; of our metallic currency ; next, the discredit of country banks after the insolvencies of 1810; but, above all, the rise of prices which, at this period of the war, was owing chiefly to the depreciation of our bank paper. The next asra of fluctuation (1815 and 1816) was of a very different character : it alFected chiefly the country banks, and was evidently a consequence of the general fall of prices, multiplied failures, and stagnation of business. The amount of this contraction has not been ascertained with any accuracy ; but from the returns inserted towards the close of the Report of the Bank Committee of 1819, it seems to have exceeded 8,000,000/.; a sum which, large as it was, appears to have been nearly counterpoised by the re-extension of country-bank circulation on the rise of prices in 1817 and 1818. Since the peace, what have been the causes affecting the circulation of the Bank of England? The substitution, on a greater or less scale, of coin for paper ; the rise or lull ot prices; and, what is closely connected with that rise or fall, the credit or discredit of our provincial banks. Circulation of Pramiicial Banks. — To nscbrUiin the amount of country-bank paper in circulation, would be aii [*18] O'lr Cinrrnry and Escchfnu/^f:iMk ol" Kiiirlnnd, hdwocii 17J>7 and Islo. 'I'liis llicy ascribed lo over issue, but tlicy omitted to niakt* allowance for tlie operation of several causes of a wholly dil- fneiit nature. Thus, after the Exemjition Act, the notes of the Bank of England were made to replace the cash reserve of every banker in the kingdom, and supplies of these notes could be obtained only by discount. Hence, the adoption of a practice, which, in the last age, would have been deemed not a little extraordinary by the cautious veterans of Lombard Street, — that of London bankers opening, like merchants, accounts with the Bank of Eng- land ; and, when in want of money, sending thither bills for discount, in preference to a sale of Exchequer bills or stock. If the reserve fund of all the country banks of the kingdom, previous to the Exemption Act, be calculated at 4,000,000/., we need be at no loss to account for a very large addition to the demands for discount on the Bank of England. The Rate of Interest. — Our last reference to facts, or, as the French express it, to le& choses positives^ regards the rate of intei'est which, notwithstanding the magnitude of our war expense, rose only one per cent, above its average rate in peace. This was certainly a very moderate differ- ence, and owing, in a great measure, to the substitution of war taxes for loans ; to our raising so large a portion of our supplies within the year. It was owing, also, in a very considerable degree, to the advantage arising to bankers, from the Exemption Act ; an advantage founded, in the case of provincial banks, on the saving of their reserve or dead fund, and wholly distinct from a power to in- crease their issues ad libitum. Had the latter been prac- ticable, would not so gainful a business have been followed more extensively, and would not interest soon have been reduced by an eager competition, from five to four per cent? * The Exemption Act considered as an ccotiomising Expe- pedient. — The use of bank paper is a refinement enabling a community to turn to account a large proportion, sup- pose the half, of a currency which would otherwise be wholly unproductive. The exemption from cash payments * For further arguments on the limited power of banks, see a pam- phlet entitled " Observations on the Depreciation of Money; " also a second pamphlet, entitled " Farther Obsenations ; " both published in 1811, by Robert Wilson, Esq. Accountant, and one of the Directors of the Bank of Scotland. 14 Apr.] Our Cunenaj and Exchanges. [21} is a farther refinement, enabling bankers to hold, at the disposal of their customers, the chief part of their reserve tiind ; which, for the sake of precision, we shall consider a fourth of the paper currency in the country. Now, to keep the reserve fund as low as is compatible with security, has long been the wish of our bankers, and the oi>ject of a variety of arrangements : of these, by lar the most ellectual is that by which they settle their daily balances against each other, amounting (Evidence to the Bullion Ueporl, p. 151.) to the very large sum of 5,000,000/. daily, by an exchange of cheques, without having occasion to use more than a tenth of the sum in bank notes. Of the same nature, are certain facilities given at the Bank of Erigland, in regard to the hour at which a banking house makes its payment for tiie day; as well as the employment of money agents or middle-men (Evidence, Bullion Report, p. 12 1.) in obtaining sums from one banker for another, at very short notice. These various modes of lessening the amount of a dead stock are both ingenious and legitLn:ntc, aflbrdhig a striking proof of the advantages attendant on a great com- mercial connnunity, on mutual confidence, and vicinity of position. A farther saving of this nature would luive tbrmed one of the leading features of Mr. Ricardo's " plan for an economical and secure currency." Now, the result, which, on a comparative snudl scale, was attained by these arrangements, was accomplished, en strand, by the Exemp- tion Act; which, by one decisive provision, cnableil bankers to dispense with the most expensive and anxious part of their business. So flir as regarded circulation at home, its effect partook of the beneficial character of the economising expedients ; its weak side was towards the Continent, and there accordingly was received the wound which proved the source of so much pain and disquietude after 1809. Report of the Bullion Committee. — This document, the merits of which liave been so diftlsrently estimated, may be read with interest even at present, when the subject has re- ceived so much additional elucidation, both from research and from events that have intervened. The passages in the Report which treat of the regulation of money and ex- change, whatever, in short, can be termed an exposition of general principles, are remarkable for accuiacy and clear- ness : those of a different character are to be Ibund in the latter part (pp. 23, 24-.), and are open to censure, chiefly as implying a beUef that the Bank had the means of in- [H] S [22'] Oiiidntroinj (1)1(1 Exchanges. [Al'P. crrasiii'^ its issfws at (liscrelion, as ii' the pul)lic were wholly without the power of chcckiiip^ the circulation, u power so clearly illustrated by Mr. Bosanquet, in liis " Practical Observations on the Report." Of the extent ol" misconception conveyed by disseminat- ing the opinion that " the rise of prices was owinjr chiefly to our bank pajier," some idea nmy be formed from one simple fact. The total rise of prices between 1797 and 1810 was above 30 per cent. ; and of that not more than 5 or 6 per cent, was at that time attributable to the non-con- vertibility of our paper. (See the Essay on M(jn(y in Na- pier's Supplement, p. 526.) In this, Ave refer to the declar- ation of an eminent buUionist, (Mr. M'Culloch,) and cite his authority in contradiction to that of the Bullion Com- mittee itself. Another serious error, or rather omission in the Report, is an inattention to the " effect on the exchange of our sul>- sidies and corn purchases." An admission is, indeed, made (p. 16.) in general terms, of the effect of political and mer- cantile transactions ; but the impression conveyed by it is lessened by other passages (p. 21, &c.) in which the effects in question are treated as slight, and the result of the stop- page of American intercourse with the Continent is wholly passed over. That the authors of the Report had deferred for a season the formation of their conclusions on a subject so new and ^complex, had certainly been desirable; but there seems no ground for the suspicion of their being actuated by party leeling. Their labours give evidence of great research and solicitude for truth ; while the imperfections in their rea- soning admit of explanation from circumstances similar to those to which we have alluded in the text ; in particular, the fact, that so much of the information now before the public was either unknown or very imperfectly disclosed to them. Thus, a witness of evident ability, and in the habit of very extensive discount transactions, gave (p. 124'.) the following evidence : " Do you know, in point of fact, whether such transac- tions as you have now described, were in practice previous to the suspension of the cash payments of the Bank ? — Yes ; they were. " Do you know whether they were practised to a similar extent ? — No ; they were not. " In what proportion, compared with the present time ? -»— 1 cannot form any exact criterion. A pp.] Our Cmrencjj and Exchanges. [25} " Can you stale to the Committee, the cause of such thf- ference? — I beheve it to be on account of the increase of country paper, and also Bank of Enghmd paper." Wlien a witness of such inteHifjence, in accouiittu'; for the augmentation of discounts, leaves out of consicleratiou the effects of the increase of our population anil productive industry from 1797 to 1810, we need hardly wonder that they should have escaped the attention of the Committee. Jn fact, the errors of the latter may be easily accounted for. The chief writer of the Report, however temperate, impar- tial, and likely to rise in reputation, had his life been pro- longed, was a stranger to the practice of business ; antl could not, from his youth, have had nmch acquaintance with the state of our money transactions previous to 1797. Of his coadjutors, one was a banker, never remarkable for clearness or accuracy; another, a man of undoubted ability^ l)ut at that time new, as he has himself admitted *, to ques- tions of this nature. Accordingly, in historical and com- mercial matter the Report is very defective ; no notice is taken in it of the pecuniary embarrassments of 1795 and 1 79G, arising from the double drain of specie for subsidies and corn; nor is the recurrence of these causes in 1799 or 1809 adverted to, although it was to them that we owed the chief increase of our bank notes. Nothing would have con- tributed so much to obtain the conviction of the mercantile body, we may say of the public at large, as a course of rea- soning supported by facts. Such an inquiry, conducted with the candour that marks the Rej)ort, and was so con- spicuous in the general parliamentary conduct of Mr. Hor- ner, would have led to several very important conclusions; — to an estimate of the share in depreciation to be ascribed in the first place to the expenditure then making in Spain; next, to the corn imports then in progress from the Conti- nent; and, lastly, to the interruption of the trade of the United States. Ilad the effect of the last been proved to be considerable, the iucjuiry might perhaps have led to a most desirable measure — the repeal of our Orders in Council before the United States resorted to the alter- native of war. Qiiestions at issue beiMoeen the Opponents amphlet, by Major (now Colonel) Torrens, published also in 181G, and entitled " Letter tv Lord Liverpool on the Slate of Agriculture:" — " To any persons who will either investigate first princi- ples, or recur to the experience of countries which, like Holland, have given freedom to tratle, it must be evitient, that this natural stiite of things is greatly preferable to any artificial system which can be substituted in its stejid. As we extend the area from which subsistence is drawn, the inequality in the productivetiess of the seasons diminishes. Hence when, under a free intercourse, a deficient harvest required an unusual import, abuii(l:nii harvests in some [34 J On /l^riculiure. [App. otlior country of the world would supply the deficiency by an extraordinary export. On the other hand, a succession of unusually abundant years could occasion no deep de- pression in our markets, because this extraordinary (juantity of corn of liome growth could not (as when abundant har- vests occur in the case of a country forcin*;^ in averaj^e years an inde))endent supply) much exceed the consumption of the season." To these opinions we add that of Mr. M'Culloch, who has inserted an Essay on the Corn Laws, in the same work as his Essay on Exchange, viz. the Supplement to the En- cyclopaedia Britannica. After regretting that the corn trade was not definitively laid open in 1815, a time when, as at present, our prices were so low that our agriculture had, in a manner, felt all the evils of transition, and the public would have reaped the greatest advantage from a return to unrestricted freedom, Mr. M. adds, — " M^hen this happy event" (a free trade in corn) " shall have taken place, it will be no longer necessary to force nature. The capital and enterprise of the country will be turned into those departments of industry in which our physical situation, national character, or political institutions, fit us to excel. The corn of Poland, and the raw cotton of Carolina, will be exclianged for the wares of Birmingham and the muslins of Glasgow'. The genuine commercial spirit, that which permanently secures the prosperity of nations, is altogether inconsistent with the dark and shallow- policy of monopoly. The nations of the earth are like provinces of the same kingdom — a free and unfettered intercourse is alike productive of general and of local advantage." Political economists are more accustomed to deal in general reasoning, than to analyse the circumstances of a case, or to go through the details necessary to the sug- gestion of a specific remedy. This blank we shall now endeavour to supply, and, by way of supplement to the preceding arguments, add u sketch of the preliminaries indispensable to freedom in our corn trade. By these we mean the exemption of our agriculturists from such burdens as press on them either exclusively, or in a greater degree than on the rest of the public. Thus : — Computation of Poor Bate and Tithe. — Of the sums levied for rates in England and \\'ales, the averaije annual amount will probably be, ere long, reduced to — App.] Qitestion of' a free Trade in Corn. [85^ Highway rate, county rate, church rate - j61, 200,000 Law suits, removal of paupers, and expence of parish officers 300,000 Maintenance and relief of the poor, after as- suming a reduction from the present charge of somewhat more than 1,000,000/. - t,500,000 In all - .t 6,000,000 Of this amount what \xirt bears exclusively on agricul- ture ? To calculate that we begin by excluding 1. The proportion that appears to be raised in towns, includinj; smaller towns than those mentioned in the Poor-rale Report of 1821, p. 13., and referring to the assessment of 181. -5, in which a distinction is made be- tween the contribution of landholders and householders ----- .::^1, 500,000 2. A large sum which in fact is but vominalli/ paid by agriculturists, the wages of country labour being lower than they would be with- out the rates : this sum we estimate conjec- turally, in war at 2,000,000/. ; in peace at 1,000,000 Remainder, being the actual burden on agricul- ture arising from rates, supposing the whole on a reduced scale - - - . 3,500,000 Total (agreeing with the preceding) i'6,000,000 Now, were all classes equal contributors to the rates, the quota of the land would be only a third, or 2,00(),0()()/. making a de- duction from the 3,500,000/. of - - i£'l,500,«00 Next, as to Tif/w. — Amount of tithe of Eng- land, Wales, and Ireland, computed at the reduced price of produce, l)ut including tithe paid to laymen, about - 5,000,000/. If tithe also were rendered a national burthen, thelandoughttopayonlyatliird( 1,700,000/.) which would form a deduction from its pre- sent burden of 3,300,000 Total deduction that would then be made frh market. And as to another point, the amount of supply to be expected from the Con- tinent at large, Mr. T. concurs with I\Ir. Jacob, (Evidence, pp. 232. 260.) that it is in general overrated. la regard to our own agriculture, Mr. T. differs mate- rially from those who imagine that a continuance of the present low prices would throw much land out of cultiva- tion. As a fall in the price of corn necessarily reduces the cost of production, he sees no great reason (pp. 232. 288.) why we should not, as half a century ago, raise corn as cheaply^ or almost as c/icapli/, as on the Continent, particu- larly now that the agriculture of Ireland is relieved from restraint. Mr. T. is also the oidy witness who brings forward (p. 288.) an argument which we have been at |)ains to enforce in tlie text, viz. that an inijiort limit, if high, would induce extended cultivation, and prove injurious to our fiirmers. We have his concmrence, likewise, in another important point, in accounting (p. 3 tt.) for the ";reat fall in the price of commodities since the peace, less hy a re- currence to cash payments;, than by the application of a great addition of labour and capital to productive purposes. Lastly, he is favourable to a protecting duty on corn, pro- vided" (Evidence, p. 297.) it be no greater than the direct taxes that operate on our own production. The opinion, that our corn is likely to be raised at a rate (between 50s. and GOi'. the (juarter) nearly as cheap as on the Continent, has a claim to {)ariicuhir alleiilion ; and we jnoceed to enquire how far it is conliniieil by a consider- ation of either our past or present circumstances. [c] 4 [40] On Agriculture. [App. Prices dnrinp^ last Centurtj. — If in the history of our corn trade we go back sufficiently far to reach a period of pro- found peace, we shall find little reason to expect tliat in such a season our prices can be kept much above those of the Continent. Throughout the hundred years that elapsed between the accession of Charles II. and of George III., corn was as low, or nearly as low, in England as in France, the Netherlands, or other adjacent parts of the Continent. After 1764, the case was different; but of the 85. or IO5. per quarter of additional price obtained in this country, the half may safely be ascribed to temporary causes ; we mean the American war, the extension of our manufactures, and the general aversion to vest capital in farming, after the discouraging experience of the preceding age. But our taxation, it may be said, is greater, compared to that of continental countries, than it was in the last century, and France is now exempt from tithe ; — important consider- ations certainly, but balanced by others of great weight on our side ; by the fact that the tillage of Ireland is no longer in fetters, that our machinery and implements have received much more improvement, our inland navigation a much greater extension than that of our neighbours. The ad- vantage of all these to agriculture can be appreciated by those only who have seen the wretched roads, the clumsy implements and vehicles of the Continent, or who have duly weighed the cheapness of our canal carriage; by which salt, manure, or bulky commodities generally, can, in many parts, be transported ten or fifteen miles at the insig- nificant charge of a shilling a ton. Our jnrsevt Prospect. — The arguments in favour of Mr. Tooke's opinion derived from our present situation are as follow : — 1. During the war, rents rose without care or exertion on the part of our landlords; at present land affords a rent of consequence only when cultivated with skill — the most substantial of all arguments for the diffusion of the improved husbandry. 2. The evils that now bear so hard on our agriculture are evils of transition ; the degree of pressure w ill be ma- terially different when farming charges shall have been reduced (as reduced they must be) in proportion to the market price of corn. 3. As to the comparative burdens on our agriculture and that of other countries, we have in the text taken France App.] A Protecting DiUy. [4 1 ] as a fair specimen of the Continent generally: if in Poland and Russia the burdens are less heavy than in France, hus- bandry, as an art, is far more backward, and the charge of freight to England is heavier. A reference to the pas- sage (p. 168.) containing the comparison with France, will much simplify the present statement, enabling us to leave out of the question the advantage of cheaper labour on the part of the French, and on ours of better machinery, lower interest of money, a more advantageous size of farms, &c. After enumerating the respective burdens, we found the difference confined to a portion of our excise duty on malt, beer, and corn spirits ; a difference which, when, as at present, the corn laws are in a manner inoj)erative, left a sum of 4- or 5,000,000/. to the disadvantage of our countrymen. This difference forms a charge of 7 or 8 per cent, on the rental of our landlortls, and the income of our farmers taken collectively. Competition of continental Agriadturists. — Supposing that the effect of a protecting duty is merely to keep our market from 6s. to 85. a quarter above that of France, or the Netherlands, would there be reason to a})prehend that English capital would find its way abroad, and be applied to the extension of culture on the Continent, with a view to import into this country ? To such a question our answer three years ago might have been in the affirmative ; but our charges are now so much reduced, and the advantages of Ireland in regard to chea}) labour, conunaiul of water communication, and fertility of soil, are ibund to approach so nearly to those of the most favoured tracts of the Conti- nent, that we much df America. The great distance of that country from Euro})e has long led to the practice of ship- ping its produce in the form of flour, rather than of grain; thus accomplishing a saving in freight, and avoiding the shifting and heating to be apprehended in a long and tem- pestuous passage. Among other recent discoveries, we are apprised (p. 437. Revue E?icyclopedique, for August, 1821, printed at Paris,) of a method of preserving flour during several years in perfect condition, by means of air-tight casks ; but whether theexpence of this or oiher methods of the kind be not too great for the chance of profit, remains to be ascertained. Compared to these, what means are possessed by our own agriculturists in regard to keeping corn in the granary, and making the plenty of one season conducive to the supply of the next ? They have the connnand of better buildings ; they pay a lower interest on capital ; and are exempt, in a great measure, from the charge of conveyance to mar- ket : their chief disadvantage lies in the prime cost of their produce. Iniprovcme?ifs in Husbandrij. — Those who are inclined to subscribe to the efficacy of some lately-promulgated methods of penetrating more deeply into the soil, whether by the plough or spade, may consider the Continent likely to benefit more largely from them in consequence of its cheaper labour, its greater agricultural population. But App.] Our Agriculture. [43] in any improvement arising from such a process, this coun- try can hardly tail to share equally, superior as we are in horses, ploughs, and iron-work generally : while, in regard to labour, Ireland is as cheaply and iihundantlv supplied as any part ot" the Continent. Probable Amount of hnport. — A low rate of duty on foreign corn would doubtless prevent any considerable rise in our market; but it by no means follows that our tillage would be materially circumscribed, or that the amount of our import would be large. Of barley, our growth is in general equal to our consumption : a considerable iuij)ort takes place only in particular years, and after seasons unfavourable to this kind of grain, such as the sununers of 181(j aiul 1817. In oats the case has hitherto been different, our growth being habitually below our consiunjition, and large imports being required both from Irelanil antl the Continent: the amount has varied, of course, in different years, Init has not for a long time averaged so little as half a million of cjuarters from either. In future our import of oats, at least in peace, is likely to be confined to Ireland. Of beans, pease, and rye, our growth is in general adequate, and our im- ports insignificant: in regard to wheat, our inijiorts, for- merly on su large a scale, are at ])resent suspended ; nor are they likely to be renewed during peace, except on the accidental occurrence of an indifferent season. What appears to be the average growth of corg of all kinds in Great Britain and Ireland? According to Mr. Colquhoun, it seems in 1812 to have been, inchuling the corn used as seed, al)out 4(), 000,000 of (|uarters, to which may be added for increase in the perioil tliat has intervened about 20 per cent., or 8,000,000 of (juarters. In reasoning on years to come, with the prospect of a progressive in- crease, we shall not greatly err in taking our growth at an average of nearly 50,000,000 of (juarters, of corn of all kinds. Then, as to import — now that we are in the enjoy- ment of peace, and possess so ample a connnand of capital and labour, we may calculate our average liemand ti)r foreign corn at a very moderate amount. It nuist necessa- rily vary greatly, according to the seasons ; but the aver- age of a spries of years of peace will perhaps not exceed a million of (juarters of grain of sill kinds, or 2 per cent, on the total of our antuial growth. "■' All undue protection to agriculture," says Mr.Ilicartio in his pamphlet on. Agvicuiture, (p. 81.'^ " shoulil b<; [44] Oiir Agriculiiirc. [App. gradually withdrawn. The policy which we ought, at this moment of distress to adopt, is to give the monopoly of" the home market to the British grower till corn reaches 70s. per quarter. When it has reached 705., a duty of 205. per quarter on the importation of wheat, and other grain in proportion, might be imposed. " I should further propose, that the duty of 205. should every year be reduced one shilling, until it reached ten shillings. A duty of ten shillings per quarter, on im- portation, to which I wish to approach, is, I am sure, rather too liigh as a countervailing duty for the peculiar taxes which are imposed on the corn grower, over and above those which are imposed on the other classes of production in the country ; but I would rather err on the side of a liberal allowance than of a scanty one." Ought a Ptotc'cihig Duty to be snspe7ided in a dear Season ? — However adverse in general to high prices, we are by no means inclined to give this question an affirmative answer. The temperature which causes a partial failure in England being likely to prevail throughout the north- west of Europe, can hardly fail to raise the corn maiket in the Netherlands, the Danish dominions, and the north of Germany, in the same manner, though not in an equal degree, as in this country. Prices may thus be brought, by a natural course, to the limit at which the protecting duty ceases: if not, a suspension of it woidd be impolitic, as well from the general inexpediency of tampering with an established law, as for another reason, viz. that a rise of price does not (Evidence, p. 36.) in a year of deficiency form an equivalent to a farmer for short quantity ; hvi can be indemnified only by the continuance of the advanced price during the succeeding year. To that he is fairly entitled : to deprive him of it by a suspension of the protecting duty, would be to cast on tilla;riculturists, beinfj more ac- customed than the hereditary ihrnu'r to calculate eventual advantages, and to hazard an outlay for a remote return. Had his life been prolt)n<^cd, he would have seen, during the war, an am|)le addition to the list of gentlemen farmers, and have had occasion, since the peiice, to qualify very materially his favourable opinion of agricultural under- takings when in tlie hands of men of otlier })rofcssions. In his time the practical farmers were compai'atively poor and uneducated ; the hope of improvement in husbanchy seemed to rest in the occasional adoption of a country life by men of diffljrent habits. Had the case been otherwise, and had our northern and eastern counties possessed, half a century ago a tenantry ccjual to the present. Dr. .Smith would probably have taken a different \'w\y of the subject, recommending that agriculture, liki: otiier pursuits, should be confined to those who had made it their business for life, and accounting for the success of gentlemen farmers during the twelve or thirteen years previous to the pub- lication of his book (1776) by a cause unforeseen, and, in sonic measure, accidental, — we mean the progi-essive rise of the {)rice of corn. Value uf Lund during last Centurij. — In Heating histori- cally of the value of land, Mr. Arthur Young, in his " In- (juiry into the Progressive Value of Money," ISl'i, ex- presses an opinion, that about the year 1770, estates sold at thirty-two years' purchase ; a rate higher, compared to the rent, than they bore during the preceding forty years. The reason, iloiibtless, was, that during that long period we had not an interval of peace of sullicient length to re- duce the interest of money. Next, as to rents, it is a re- markable fact, that from the beginning of last centiu'y until towards 1770, they had experienced hardly any rise. *' A neighbour ol' mine in Suffolk," says Mr. Young, (Inquiry, p. \0'2,.) " who inherited a considerable laniled propi-rty, informed me, that in various conversations which he hud, [48] Oitr Agriadlure. [App. between thirty and forty years ago, (between 1770 and 1780) with a relation fi\r advanced in years, and from whom much of that property was derived, tliat much surprise was ex- pressed at the rise of rents, wfiich then began to t^ike place. Through the long period of his relation's experience, no rise was ever thought of; and lease after lease, in long succession, was signed, without a word passing on the question of rent : that was an object considered as fixed ; and grandfather, father, and son, succeeded without a thought of any rise: in many cases landlords were much more apprehensive of losing a tenant at the old rent, than having the smallest conception of raising it to a new one. Comparative Price of Wheat on the Continent^ and in Eng" landf previous to the French Revolution. Official Return of the price of Wheat at the Rosoy, or Paris Market, by the Septier of 24-Olbs. French. Average of the 10 yeai's preceding 1776 Average of the 10 years preceding 1786 The year 1786 1787 1788 Average per septier, during the 23 years pre- ceding 1789 - - - 24 18 2 vres s. d. 28 7 9 22 4 7 20 12 6 22 2 6 24 Reducing this to English measure aiid money, the ex- change being then twenty-four livres for the pound sterling, the result is an average for these twenty-three years, per Winchester quarter, of 38s. Qd. sterling. At Dantzic the average price of wheat in the twenty years from 1770 to 1789, both inclusive, after adding Is. per quarter for freight and charge to England, was (Evi- dence, Agricultural Report, p. 366.) about 4 Is. But in England, the annual returns of purchase at Eton market, during the same period, give an average of 49s. : the whole computed by the \\'inchester quarter. This difference was not a little remarkable at a time when our taxation was hardly greater than that of our neighbours. Arising, in the first instance, from bad sea- sons, it owed its continuance partly to our corn law ; more to the extension of our manufactures, and to our war with our American colonies while the continent of Europe re- mained in peace. App.] Ow- Agriadturc. [4-9] Average Prices of Grain in Eni^ia?id in the year 1822, takeJi from the Official Jirlnrn. Wheat 43s. 3(i. Rye 205. 3d. Barley 2l5. 3r/. Beans 23s. 9d. Oats 17^. 7d. Pease 25s. Id. Export and Import of Corn. (From the Agricultural Report of June, 1821.) Quarters. Exporting period. — In the seventy-six years between 1697 and 1773, the amount of our export of corn of all kinds above our im- port was - _ _ . 30,968,000 Importing period. — During the forty-two years from 1 773 to 1815, the amount of our import above our export was about - - 24,630,000 Ireland. — The import of corn of all kinds from Ireland to Great Britain, in the thirty- two years prior to 1806, was only - - 7,531,000 But after the act of 1806 had rendered sucli import free, it amounted in fifteen years (to 1821) to - - - - 12,304,000 REMARKS ON The Agrirullitnd Rrpoy/ of\HQ\. INo public document was ever more eagerly expected, or more generally perused, than the Agricultmal Iteport of 1821, How far, it may be asked, did it fid/il the public expectation ? On the ground of impartiality and liberality of view, no reasonable disappointment ct)uld have been experienced, but the comi^osition of the Report was by no means of equal merit with its substance, ^^'e do not allude to a deficiency of those graces of style which custom does not reijuire in a parliamentary paper, and wliicli wcTuld i)robably be mis})luciil there, but to a want of that [i>J [50] AgticuUural lUport oj \H'l\. [App. Ijrevity ntul arrangement which in any composition ar<; In- (lis})ensable to a (Ustinct conception of the hiti/' June \H22. [55] Flour, whether of wheal or oiiti>, is subject to dut'es proportioned to the above-mentioned duties on grain. In this respect also our North American colonies have a pre- ference, which to them is a point of considerable import- ance, since the shipments on the opposite shore of the Atlantic take i)lace more frequently in the shaj)e of flour than of grain. Flour made from wheat, IVr cwt. IVr twi. Additional during the first three months l.v. 1 parts of the Fvidence before the Agricultural Committee of 1821, whciv also, we iiiid that it is not unusual for laiullords in England to pay a portion of the farming charges, on condition of the tenant keeping up the productiveness of the land, by :ip|>lying lime, manure, &c. ,'}. A powerful circumstance of the same tendency is the difficulty of withdrawing labour and tapiuil liom tillage; a truth so strongly urged by Mr. Clcghorn, in his lately [D] 4 [56] (\)rn Imu- 1)/ June IH22. [App. piihlislu'd " Essay on the Causes of" the I)ej)rcssion of At^riculturc," (pp. 51, 52,) and proved by the experience of half a century (from 1714- to 17^)4-,) (hiring which th(; quantity produced was kept up, although prices continueil very low. 4. Population returns 1811 and 1821. 7'hese, it is true, appear to favour the opinion that the luimber of labourers engaged in agriculture has not kept pace with the increase of consumers ; for wliile the latter were augmented in the course of the ten years in question 15 per cent., tlie former appear to have increased hardly 10 per cent. It is, how- ever, to be remembered, that 5. The distinction in the Population returns is made, not by individuals, but by families, and that the discharges from the army and militia, or rather, the suspension of drain by enlistment, by leaving the able-bodied at home, gives greater efficiency to the same number of families. Also, that 6. From the progress of improvement in husbandry the same number of labourers raise a considerably larger share of produce than they did ten or twelve years ago. App.] [57] APPENDIX TO CHAPTEK VI. On Poor Hate. (From the Reports on the Poor Laws in 1817 and 1821.) Table of the Amowit expended at different dates on the Poor of England and IVales^ making the year close at Easter^ and adding the eorrcsjumding average Price of the Bushel oflVlieat. — These sums are distinct from churchy count ly, or highway rates. IVicc of Wheat jxT Ikshel. £ .V. d. 1748-4-9-50 - - - avcra<^e 689,971 4 5 1776 - - - - — 1,521,732 6 9 1783-84-85 - - — 1,912,241 7 7 1803 - - - - — 4,077,891 H 1 1813-14-15 - - — 6,129,Slt 12 H 1816-17-18 - - — (;,S4i,290 10 1819-20 - - - — 7,430,627 9 a 1821 - - - - — 6,917,660 7 10 [58] On Poor Hale [Apr Amoiinf of Expenditure in each Tenth Year since the middle of last Ceiiturjj, together laith the Price of Wheat. Years. Expenditure. Wheat per Bushel. Ji s. d. 1750 713,000 4. 2 1760 .065,000 4- 10 1770 1,306,000 6 5 1780 1,774,000 5 11 1790 2,567,000 6 4 1800 3,861,000 10 2 1810 5,407,000 12 4 The following are given in successive Years. Expended on the Maintenance of the Poor. Wheat per Bushel. S. d. .€ Year ending 25th March, 1813 6,656,105 u; 8 - 1814 6,294,584 12 3 _ _ - - 1815 5,418,84-6 8 10 _ - - - 1816 5,724,507 7 9 _ _ - - 1817 6,918,247 10 11 - - - 1818 7,890,148 11 3 _ - - - 1819 7,531,651 10 4 . 1820 7,329,594 8 8 - - - - 1821 6,947,666 7 10 r .. J .. iir ..±..- -J O . / 7 7 London, Westminster, and Southisark. Year ending Easter, 1814. 2otli March, EXPENDITURE. Easter, 1813. 1815. £ £ £ Number of poor relieved per- manently in work-houses - 13,389 13,373 12,341 Out of work-houses, without reckoning the children - - 12,654 13,76'J 13,341 Parishioners relieved occasion- ally cither in or out of work- houses - - - - Total - 40,993 69,332 70,322 67,036 96,467 96,004 App.] On Poor Rate. [59] Highxvay, Churchy cnid Coiinly rale. — These minor charges form collectively somewhat more than a fii'th ot" the large sum which passes currently under the name of poor- rate. Are they, it may be asketl, likely to experience a reduction corresjionding to that of the iiuid applied to the relief of the poor? As the chief constituent ot" charge in these lesser rates is the price of labour, it is evident thai at the reduced wages of the present day, a smaller sum will suffice for an equal extent of work : on tlie other hand, it is very probable that from a sense of the necessity of provid- ing employment lor the lower orders, and of the advantage of carrying farther the improvement of our roads, a con- siderable extension may be given to such undertakings ; none, it is evident, can be more advantageous to the pubhc, if conducted with judgment and economy. Repm-t of 15/// July 1822, on the Poor-rate Returns. — This, the latest labour of the Committee on the manage- ment of the poor, puts in a striking light both the difier- ence of plan followed in different pai'ts of the kingdom, and our imperfect acquaintance with the system as u whole. There continues, says the Report, an evident connexion between the rise or fall of the }irice of wheat, and the rise or fall of expenditure for the poor; the total decrease in the latter since 1818 being 22 per cent. 'J'he apiiointmcnl of select vestries and assistant overseers goes on in different parts of the kingdom, but more slowly than might have been expected after the recommendation of the l*oor-law Committee of 1817. But the present mode of keeping parish accounts presents a very imperfect check on the ex- penditure, and ought, in the opinion of the Conunittee, to be rendered nuich more specific. All charges either for law, or for such purposes as building or repairing work- houses, ought to be discriminated from the great head of " money exjiended for the relief and maintenance of the poor : " — while in regard to the latter the return ought to l)e-very explicit, when aid is alTorded according to the lunn- ber of children, or, in particular ciwes, to able-bodied persons. [60] [Apr. APPENDIX TO CHAPTER VII. On Population. il1. - 1 Peebles i 1 York, E. Rid- Durham - - IT Sutherland - ; 1 ; ing - 14 Linlithgow - 17 Perth - - 5 Aberdeen 15 Somerset 17 Forfar - 6 Bute - 15 Banff - 18 Kincardine - 1 6 ; Derby - - 15 Gloucester - 18 Salop 6 j Devon - 15 Norfolk - - IR Kinross - - 7 iKssex - 15 Bedford - - 19 Berwick - - 8 9 Inverness 15 Chester - - 19 Nairn - Kirkcudbright 15 Cornwall - - 19 Clackmannan 10 Montgomery - 15 Denbigh - - 19 Merioneth - 10 Northampton 15 Lincoln - - 19 Hereford 10 Nottingham - 15 Glamorgan - 20 Radnor - - 10 Orkney and Middlesex - JO Roxburgh 10 1 Shetland - 15 Warwick 20 Elgin - - 11 i Hampshire - 15 York, N. Rid- Argyle - - 12 Wilts - - 15 ing - - -20 13erks - - 1- \ Worcester - 15 Cambridge - 21 Stirling - - 12 Brecon - - IC Renfrew 21 Westmorland 12 Dorset - - 16 Anglcscu 22 Dumbarton - 13 Flint - - 16 Ayr 22 Dumfries 13 .Hertford 1 Huntingdon - 16 jPembroke 22 Fife - 15 16 Surrey - 83 Haddington - 15 Leicester 16 Sussex - 25 Ross and Cro- i Monmouth - 16 lYork.W.Rid- marty 15 Northumbcr- 1 ing - - 23 Oxford - - 15 i land - 16 jWigton - - 34 Rutland - - 13 Staflbrd - - 16 {Lanark - - 27 Selkirk - - 15 Suffolk - - 16 'Lancaster 1 -^ Buckingham - 14 jCumbcrland - 17 'Caithness : 29 Cardigan - - 14 Cannarthcn - J7 Edinburgh - 1 29 Kent" - 14 Carnarvon - i 17 The ratio of most frequent occurrence is J. 5 per cent., or an average between 13 and 17 per cent. In several conn- ties the augmentation is to be ascribed tollu- incrcasf of the principal towns; thus the increase of Middlesex is ilic increase of London, Surrey of Southwark, Warwickshire of Birmingham, Lanarkshire of Glasgow, and Lancashire of Manchester, Liverpool, Preston, &c. In the remote county of Caithness, the increase is owing to the extension of the herring fishery; while the almost sl;tiionary condition of the adjoining county of Sutherland is owing to the emi- [72] l^opidation. [App. frration ofcottagers, and the conversion of their petty occu- pancies into pasture ground. Englcmd and Wales: Progressive Increase of our Pojndation. Its amount in 1801 - - - 9,343,578 Ditto 1811 - - - 10,791,115 Ditto 1821 - - - 11,977,665 Fy ogressive Increase in the Ten Principal Towns of England. Year 1801. Year 1811. Year 1821. London - - - 900,000 1,050,000 1,225,964 Manchester 81,020 98,573 153,788 Liverpool 77,655 94,.»76 118,972 Birmingham 73,670 85,755 106,722 Bristol 63,645 76,433 87,779 Leeds _ _ . 53,062 62,534 83,796 Plymouth 45,454 56,060 61,212 Portsmouth 32,166 40,567 45,648 Norwich - - - 36,852 57,256 50,288 Newcastle-on-Tyne 28,365 37,587 46,948 Scotland. — Here the rafio of increase in the towns, par- ticularly Edinburgh and Glasgow, has been equally great. Irelaiid. — The returns previous to 1811 were too im- perfect to afford the means of calculating the progressive increase of population, nor have those of 1821 as yet been given to the public in a satisfactory form : the general re- sult is, that the population of all Ireland amounts in round numbers to That of the principal towns, Dublin Cork Limerick - - - • 7,000,000 186,276 100,535 66,042 Great Britai7i: Return o/'1821. Distribution into Classes, Families. Proportions to the whole popu- lation in parts of 100. Employed chiefly in agriculture Do. in trade, manufactures, me- chanical employment, &c. - In all other situations 978,656 1,350,293 612,488 53 46 21 100 1 App.] Population. [73] Proportion of Agricitlfwnl Population. — This varies greatly, according to tlie particular county. In a highly manufacturing county, such as Lancashire, it is not halt' the average of33 in 100; inYorkshire, which in the West Riding is manufacturing, and in other parts agricultural, the return approaches to the average, but is still somewhat below it; while in Sussex, Essex, Suffolk, where there are so tew manufactures, it greatly exceeds it, being above 50 in 100; in Cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire, and Herefordshire, the proportion is the largest of all, being above GO in 100. Comparison of the Population Returns of 1S\ I and 1821. England. Wales. Scotland. Totals. Increase per cent. Families chiefly employed ) in agriculture, 1811 J 697,353 72,846 125,799 895,998 1821 Do. in trade, manufac- y 773,732 74,225 130,699 978,656 9V tures, and mechanical > employment - 1 8 1 1 j 923,588 36,044 169,417 1,129,049 1821 In all other situations, 1811 1821 1,118,295 41,680 391,450 20,866 454,690 30,801 i 190,264 106,852 126,997 1,350,239 519,168 612,488 19J 18 The most important reflection suggested by these returns, is the great superiority of increase in our town population over that of tiie agriculturists. This is remarkable on two accounts; first, as indicating a rapid increase of" productive power, and next as jieculiar to our island ; the augment- ation in France and the Continent generally being no greater in town than in the country. Wales. — Here agricultural employiueiit predominates. Among persons out of business there apjxars a remarkable increase; the consequence, probably, of Wales being found a comparatively cheap residence by half-pay oflicers and other annuitants. [7*] PopuLalioii. [A pp. Indications of an Increase of National Wealthy taken from Population J let urns. — These are, 1. An increase in the proportion of persons who are independent of labour; we mean of those who derive their income from property, whether land, houses, or money lent. 2. A greater comparative increase of town population. 3. It follows that under such circumstances afrriculturists will increase in a ratio inferior to that of tiie other classes : still the augmentation of produce may, and probably will, keep pace with the augmentation of the consumers, the improvements in husbandry and the increased use of ma- chinery (such as threshing mills) contributing greatly to lessen the manual labour employed in raising corn. Census of 1377- — As a matter of historical curiosity, we subjoin the population of the principal towns of England in the year 1377, Avhen an enumeration was made on account of a poll-tax : London - - 35,000 York - - - - 11,000 Bristol ■- - 9,000 Plymouth - - - 7,000 Coventry - - - 7,000 Norwich - - - 6,000 Lincoln - - 5,000 Sarum, Wiltshii 'e 5,000 Lynn - - - - 5,000 Colchester - - - Canterbury - - - Beverley - - _ Newcastle-on-Tyne Oxford - - - Bury, Suffolk - - Gloucester C Ea^h Leicester < somewhat Shrewsbury/ "'°'*'^*" 4,500 4,000 4,000 4,000 3,500 3,500 3,000 In that remote age the total population of England was 2,300,000 ; but the proportion of town population was far smaller than at present, since the number of towns contain- ing above 3000 inhabitants was only 18. [75] APPENDIX TO CHAPTER VIII. National Revenue and Capital. J S our animal Consumption cqtud to onr aivmal Production ? — \xi advertincf to this subject, our limits prevent our enlarg- ing on the distinction between productive and un|ir()ductive consumption, as explained by M. Say and Mr. ^till, or the much greater latitude given to the term jiroductive by Mr. Gray. We have, in tact, room for little more than answering the plain practical question, " What part of our national income appears to be saved or invested, so as to form a permanent addition to the national property ?" The part of our income thus appropriated will be found very small, if considered in the limited sense of investments in money securities, such as the funds or mortgage, trans- actions of that nature being confined in a great measure to annuitants, or rather to tlic comparatively small portion of them that are opulent. If to these we add the invest- ments in the form of money in the part of all other classes, including the saving banks of the lower orders, we shall probably find for the kingdom at large, an annual appropri- ation of 9 or 10,000,000/., the interest of which, at the pre- sent reduced rate, affords an addition of only .3 or 400,000/. to our national income. But if we take in a more liberal sense the difference be- tween the revenue and expenditure of the nation, if we consider as saving or as increase of our stock, all that is laid out on the improvement of land, the building or re- pair of houses, the increase of furniture, and if to these we add interest of money saved, we shall find on the whole, an [76] National Revenue and CapiUil : C'o)Tes])ondcnctJ [A pp. addition to our national capital of 50 or 60,000,000, mak- ing an increase in otn- taxable income of nearly 3,000,000/. a-ycar, and renderin*^ it probable tliat the 260,000,000/. of this year will in 182i become 263,.000,000/.; in 1825 266,000,000/., &c. This result will be confirmed, if we take as a criterion the increase of our population, confining our estimate to those who annually attain the age of twenty, the age of efficient labour, and whose number we calculate as follows : In 1802 the population of Great Britain and Ireland was about 16,000,000, the annual increase by births over deaths, Ih per cent, or 24-0,000. The individuals then born, whether male or female, have now attained the age of useful labour, and must be considered as bearing the same share as the rest of the population, in augmenting the national income. In what manner ought the result of their exertions to be calculated? Our national income, taken in the largest sense, is (see p. 256) 350,000,000/. a-year, and the average contribution to it, reckoned per head of popu- tation, is nearly 17/. Estimated in that proportion, the ad- dition from our new cultivators of the field of national in- dustry would be little short of 4,000,000/. a year ; but we prefer the safer course, and reckon as a bo7id fide addition to our resources only that income which is subject to taxes. Now, on dividing the taxable income of the nation by the number of our population, the result is about 12/. a head as the product of each individual, and the quota of our new contributors, reckoned by that scale, approaches to the 3,000,000/. mentioned above. This will be found a fair and moderate estimate of the annual addition to our national income. If it be objected, that a deduction ought to be made from our assumed number of 240,000, on account of the deaths occurring ere our new contributors attain the age of labour, we answer that that is amply balanced by the following con- siderations : 1. The growing increase of our numbers, which, follow- ing the scale of our population returns for 1803, 4, &c. will be next year 244,000; the year after 250,000, and seven years hence, 270,000. 2. The fact that our new labourers living chiefly in towns where wages are higher than in the country, their contri- butions might fairly be estimated at somewhat more than 12/. ahead. 3. Particularly as that sum forms the average contri- App.] between Production and Cu7isumj)t ion. [77I bution of our population including all a- /hirds of the present amount. [F] 2 [84] Estimate of National Capital. [Api*. Public Burdenaiii. the present Year{\H2^). — Particulars of the 64,000,000/. assumed in the text, p. 269. Taxes, gross amount, including both the charge of collecting and the repayments in the form of drawbacks, discounts, and allowances ^£^58,000,000 Deduct, not the charge of collection, but the repayments, which form in fact no part of our burdens 4,000,000 Remain - - 54,000,000 This is after a full deduction for the dimi- nution in the duties on malt, salt, leather; also in the assessed taxes. Add for tithe, including Ireland * - - 5,000,000 Poor-rate, after deducting such portion as be- longs properly to wages (see text, p. 201 .) 5,000,000 In all - jf 64,000,000 This amount, reduced to money of 1792 in the proportion of nearly 130/. to 100/., gives the sum expressed in the text, viz. ^50,000,000 Or, compared to our national income, a proportion of 25 to 100. * TiTHB, All our tables include the tithe paid to lay impropriators. [85] APPENDIX CHAPTER X. On Flucfiuiiiati of Prices. ^From Mr. Arthur Young's Inquiry into the Value of Money, 1812.) Abstract of part of Sir G. ShiickburgVs Table. The Prices of the Year 1550 are taken for the Integer; viz. 100. Years. Wheat. 1550 100 1600 — 1650 1675 246 1700 — 1720 1740 197 1760 203 1780 — 1790 ~— 1795 426 1800 — Twelve Miscellaneous Articles, viz. an Ox, Cow, Poultry, &c. 100 239 434 492 752 Ihitchcr IMeat. Day Labour. 100 1(K) \m 118 266 250 400 275 511 \'M\ — — Mean of all. KM) U4 188 210 257 2S7 312 1-27 11(6 53 1 ■AVI This table presents a very great rise in j-irices, but the grounds of calculation are liir from aiciuato. Butcher meat is put on a par with wheat, although with the niast. of [Fj 3 [8G] fltictuatioii in Ihc Value of Muncij. [Aim'. the population it docs not form a fifth j);irt of the con- snni]>tion. Kach of the twelve miscellaneous articles, whether poultry or cattle, are considered of equal import- ance, and manufactures of every sort are omitted. There are, besides, a number of inaccuracies in the authorities from which the table is compiled. Com'parhon of the 11 Ik and iSth Centuries. — Bishop Fleetwood, whose inquiries, in regard to the particular period to which he confined them, were very accurate ; and Dr. Heni'y, the author of the History of Englantl, both exhibit results very different from Sir George Shuckburgh. From these Mi'. Young attempted an estimate on tlie fol- lowing plan. ITth 18th Rise per C entiiry. Centu ■y- Cent. £ s. d. S^ s. d. Wheat 1 18 2 1 18 7 Par. Barley and oats - 1 y 5h 2 Oh 33 Butcher meat, butter, cheese, or whatever is the produce of grass land _ - - 1 9 2 3 28^ Labour - - - 10? 1 3 461: Wool 1 9 li 17 8^ 39A fall. Iron - - -' u 11 16l rise. Coals - - -1 5 lOi 1 13 39 \ Repeating wheat five times, on account of its import- ance, bai-ley and oats twice, the produce of grass land four times, labour five times, and reckoning wool, coals, and iron, each but once, while iron is considered the repre- sentative of all manufactures, the rise from the prices of ojie century to those of the other will amount to no more than '22^ per cent. ; or only th.e tenth part of the rise stated by Sir George Shuckburgh. Manufactures. — Under the impoi-tant head of metals, and particularly of iron, Mr. Y. found that the rise for several centuries had been inconsiderable, the improve- ments in the process of preparing them sufficing, in a great measure, to counterbalance the enhancement of labour. But the great argument against Sir G. Shuckburgh's alle- A pp.] Fluctuation in the Valxic of Mmieij. [87] gation ol" general depreciation is to be found in the pric«! of manufactures, in the production ol" which, far more than in agriculture, free scope is given to the application of all the auxiliaries called forth by the progress of society ; we mean increase of capital, division of labour, and aid from machinery. The following siiort list is tiiken irom the books of Greenwich IIos[)ilai. Average of the Years from Shoes. Stockings. Ilau. I'roportions in twenty, when taki'M i-olki'iivtly. 1729 to 176.3 1770 to 17S5 - 1770 to ISOO - 1790tolS(X) - 1805 to 1810 - s. d. s. d. 3 11 i 1 7 3 10 ' 1 S\ \ 7il 1 h\ 4. 6ri 1 6 5 5 2 2 s. d. 2 2i 2 3* 2 4- 2 4. 3 Hi 1+ ■ 1.34 20 These are articles of subordinate importance; but the fact i.^, that in almost all manufactured connnodities,"we are supplied cheaper than our ancestors, and that u lisc, when it has taken place, is to be ascribed cithtr to a tax on the raw commodity, or to some cause whicii may be termed particular or incidental. In regard to the qiuiiitij of our manuiacture.s, we nmst speak with more hesitation, and can hardly decide whetiier the balance be in favour of ihc pre- sent, or of a former age; for if our i'abrics are now much more neat alid convenient, they are in a considerable de- gree less durable. Horses and Cattle. — In these the improvement in point of quality admits of no doubt. In comparing the present jirice of sheep and oxen with those of a century :igo, a great part of the diflerence is to be ascribed to the inferior .si/u ol' the animal, at a time when the art of gra/ing was not under- stood ; the same will be found to hold in ngaril to horses, and at a later date than is connnonly imagined. The only quarter aflbrding authentic information in regard to the price of horses is the War Olfice, from the record^ of uhu h Mr. Young extracted the following averages. [i-J I [88] Mucliiatio7i in the Value ofMona). [Arp. Years. Price. £ s. d. 1766 and 1767 21 From 1768 to 1792, both inclusive 23 2 1793 to 1802 - - - 26 .5 1803 to 1812 - 26 5 The rise of price in this period of forty-six years was much less than might have been supposed from the rate paid by individuals. But the War Office, looking chiefly to strength and the power of standing fatigue, bought, throughout the whole period, horses of nearly equal value. Private purchasers were not so easily satisfied ; and of the higher prices so generally paid by them, a considerable part is to be ascribed to a size and beauty in the animal which half a century before was comparatively rare. Sketch of the progressive Rise of Prices since the Thirteenth Century^ taking 20 for the Integer or highest Sum^ and exhibiting the other Parts by their proj^m-tion to it. [Ab- stractedfrom a Table of Arthur Young.) Beef and Manufac- Trade, Periods. Wheat. Poik, from the Books of the Victualling Labour. tures at Green- wich Hospital. Popula- tion. calcu- laied from our Ex- Office. jions. 13th Century 5\ 3^ _ __ _ 14th ditto - 6i 44 — — — 15th ditto - 5 5} — — — IGth ditto - 6 5^ — — — 17th ditto - 9t 8 , — — — 18th ditto - H — 12^ — — — 66 years from 1701 to 1766 - H H 10 14^ 11 5^ 25 ditto from 1767 to 1789 - 11 11 12i 14 13^. H 54 ditto from 1767 to 1800 - - 12 12^ 14 15J 15J 11 14 ditto from 1790 to 1803 - 15 17 16| 15* 184 15^ 7 ditto from 1804 to 1810 - 20 20 £0 20 20 20 App.] Fluctuation in the Value of Moncij. [89] Annual Coyisumption of Gold and Sili'e?' Jbr Plate, orna- mental Ma7iufacture, and Furniture. — Calculations of tliiv nature have hitherto been founded on rtturns i'vom towns which, like Geneva, were remarkable Ibr the manufacture of watches, or like Paris and Hirmin,000 Now a consumption on the part of the former class at the conjectural average of 10/. a family amuially, would give - - - - ^i,000,000 The same for the second class at the rate of somewhat less than 2/. per family - - - 3,000,000 Add for the consumption of the lower orders in watches, ear-rings, buckles, &c. - - - 1,<»(H),()00 Total - - - - .£8,000,000 These large sums include loss by accident and wear; but, as a considerable amount of t)Id plate or old manufacture is amuially naltcd and wrought up, we deduct as not forming a demand on the minc^ 2,()()0,()<)O [90] Tbirhudion in the faluc of Money. [ App. llcniaiiulcr, being the conjectural amount of specie from the mines annually required for jilate and ornarnenUil manufacture or fur- niture ,€'6,000,000 Comparative Expencc of France and England. — Not- witlistandinij our m-eat intercourse with the Continent of late years, the jiublic are not yet in possession of a correct com})arison of the expence of living in France and England. Nothing is more vague and unsatisfactory than the notices on this subject in books of travels, proceeding, as they ge- nerally do, from persons who have little idea of compre- hensive calculation, and who allow themselves to dwell with undue emphasis on a few particular points in which France happens to differ materially from England. Such persons seldom make allowance for a countervailing tendency in other items of the account. The proper mode is to frame a general table, including not only provisions, house-rent, iViel, wages, but manufactures, and professional charges. Alter ascertaining these material points, there will remain to be made a distinction betw^een different periods : thus, during the war, particularly in the latter years, the dilTerence between the two countries was very great, lOOZ. in France being equivalent to 140/. or 150/. in England. Since the peace, this difference has progressivel}' decreased, the fall of prices in France, though not inconsiderable, being much inferior to that which has taken place in England. A com- jxirison made in 1819 would have exhibited 100/. in France as equal to fully \30l. in England; at present (1823) it would not exceed the proportion of 100/. to 120/. After attending to these prelimhiaries, the progress of comparison becomes less difficult, and, by balancing one point against another, is made to assume, at last, a clear and simple form. Thus, as to the respective capitals, Paris being inferior in water communication incurs a greater enhancement than London in the conveyance of bulky commodities, such as corn, coal, wood ; while, in respect to number of consumers^ the cause of enhancement is consi- derably less, the population of the French metropolis being less than two -thirds of that of ours. These causes may be said to neutralize each other : and the inferences are, — First, that Paris is as much dearer than the provincial part of France, as London is dearer than the provincial part of England. - - • Secondly, that the proportion mentioned above as con- 14. App.] Fluctuation in l/ic Vahic of Money. [91] stituting the difference with England, viz. 30 per cent, in 1819, and 20 pur cent, at present, is apjilicable to the two countries throughout, provided we confine our [jurallel to places similarly circumstanced, comi)aring Paris with Lon- don, and Touraine or Lower Normandy, each about 150 miles from Paris, with Shropshire, Derbyshire, or other counties, at a similar distance from London. Another point to which travellers are seldom sufficiently attentive is, that the degree of diflL-rence between one pro- vince and another, and even between one country on the Continent and another, is much smaller than it at first ap- pears. Take, for exam})le, the north and south of I-'rance, countries very diflerent in climate, produce, and habits. At first the south appears nmch cheaper, aflbrding in abun- dance wine, fruit, and other articles, lor which we are Uiade to pay so extravagantly in Kngland ; but these, on a closer examination, are found to be counterbalanced by the jiricc of corn always higher there than in the northern districts of France. Again, the lower wages of labour, in a backward province like lirittany, make a very slight difference ulti- mately, when we take into account the inferiority of the labourers. Similar remarks are applicable to Germany, Italy, Switzerland : in none of these countries are the amount of taxation, the interest of money, the state of hus- bandry, or any of the main constituents of price so mate- rially different as to cause any great difference in tlie expence of living. Accordingly, after all the assertions and exag- gerations of travellers, the distinctioris on the Continent are little more than 1. That provincial towns are considerably less expensive than capitals. 2. That by living in a petty town, or in the country, a farther reduction of expence may be accomplished, but with a jrreater sacrifice of comfort, a «ireater removal from busi- es ..,.." . 1 . ness and society, than is implied by a country residence in England. 3. That in consequence of the want of water communi- cation, the price of bulky commodities, such as corn or wood, varies more in the provinces of the Continent llian in the counties of England; still the difference is less great than is often asserted, (Etlinburgh Keview, \'ol. LXIV. p. 362.) land carriage on the Continent being moderate in consecjuence of the insignificanc' of i.«!l^ mm,! tnmDlKi- dues. i. That taking France as the rijnt m ;r.;i;i\r m ,ii> v ..ii- tinent at large in point of expence, the difference with [92] Fluctuation in the Value of Maueij. [App. Kn^lanil, great during tlie war, (particularly from 1809 to 1811), is at present not more than 20 per cent. ; any dis- burse beyond that proportion being attributable, not to dillercnce of prices, but to additional comfort or luxury on our side. To what degree did a difference of prices exist between France and England prior to the French Revolution ? Our materials for such a comparison are far from complete: the tables collected by the late Arthur Young in 1789 in- dicate a considerable inferiority of price, but the articles quoted are chiefly agricultural ; and had manufactures been included, the general result would have been less un- favourable to England. If we revert to a prior date, such as the middle of the last century, we shall find reason to consider the two countries nearly on a par. At that time England was not much more heavily taxed than France, nor were our manufactures or corn dearer, for both were articles of export. The result accordingly is, that prior to 1760 the only material distinction between the two coun- tries consisted in the style of living; the proportion of English population in towns being even then considerably greater, and the inhabitants consequently requiring com- forts little known or thought of in the provincial part of France. Mr. M'Culloch, in his " Essay on reducing the Interest on our National Debt," published in 1816, maintains, in contradiction to common opinion, that the rise in the price of corn on the Continent during the last half century has, on the whole, been inconsiderable. He goes into the ques- tion at great length, treating in succession of France, Spain, Italy, and the countries on the Baltic, and adducing several cogent arguments in opposition to those who maintain, that there took place on the Continent a rise of prices nearly correspondent to the rise in this country. His con- clusions are, that in France there was no rise in the price of corn : that in Italy the rise was a consequence of the ex- tension given to the freedom of trade ; and that the partial advance which he admits to have taken place in Russia and Poland was a necessary result of the degree of im- provement introduced in the present age into these very backward countries. To this statement we have merely to offer the qualifications naturally arising from a state of war. In the long period from 1793 to 18 14 every state on the Continent was either engaged in hostilities, or obliged to increase its taxes and military establishment. In all these 13 App.] Fluctuation in the Value of Money. [95] was felt a portion of tlie activity or excitement so conspi- cuous in England during the war, followed in all by a sUig- nation similar, though not ecjual in degree, to that which we have experienced since the peace. The consequence was, that prices rose during one period and fell in the other ; but to ascertain the extent of change is a matter of great difficulty, there being few official returns in any j)art d? the Continent, and the question being somewhat jierplexed by the circulation of government pajier so general duriu" the war. On the whole, however, there took place, in family expenditure, calculated on a comprehensive plan, and in- cluding along with corn and butcher meat, wages, hou.^e- rent, fuel, &c. a rise of from 25 to 30 per cent, on the prices of 1792 ; a rise which has, in a great measure, ills- appeared in the continued reduction since the peace. In forming conclusions on the jirice of corn, allowance ought evidently to be made for particular causes operating in particular countries: — thus, in France, the abolition of tithe, and the sale of the church lands, promoted tillage to a degree which nearly counteracted the rise of labour at- tendant on the war. Annjial Expence of the familij (f an jh^ricultural Labourer., supposed to C07isist of S\ persons ,- beini:^ an avrra<^c if the expence of (SS families of labourers^ in (lijf'ercnt parts of England, collected by Sir F. Eden, in 1796. Provisions (as dear then as in 1823) - Rent ------ Fuel and candles - - - - Clothes and wasliing . _ - Contingencies - - - - - The same table, adapted to the present time by an ad- dition of 25 per cent, to the respective heads of expence, with the exception of provisions. Provisions - _ - - - Rent ------ Fuel and candles - - - - Clothes and light _ - - - Contingencies ----- ,i27 1 8 1 13 3 2 10 7 4 IS 10 10 .VS6 11 J £"11 1 S 2 1 7 3 3 3 fi 2 (i 13 7 .^'39 '-' 7 [91] Plan for ^^iving a steady F/due to [A PP. Table cnmprisin;^ articles of frr.Jieral conmmjttion^ to each of which is qjfixcd the probable amount ()f money expended on on it by the jniblic, referred to in the text^ p. 333. Expcndci! by Articles Quantity Average tlie public consumed. price. oil cacli article. Produce of the Soil. Qrs. .V. £ Wheat - - - - 1 2,000,000 50 30,000,000 Barley (used chiefly in the brewery and distillery) 7,200,000 25 9,000,000 Oats (the portion appropriated to human food) . _ - 10,000,000 20 10,000,000 Butcher meat and animal food generally — — 5 5,000,000 Manufactures. The following sums representing the value, exctusivc of exports, are, of course, considerably be- low the total of the value an- nually prepared — — — Woollens . - - — — 22,000,000 Cottons, (the exports exceed 20,000,000/.) . - - — — 20,000,000 Linen - - — — 1 5,000,000 Silk — — 8,000,000 Leather _ . - — 1 5,000,000 Hardware - - - — — 9,000,000 Foreign Articles, such as Sugar - - - — — 9,000,000 Tea - _ - - — — 8,000,000 Various other articles of sufficient importance to be specified, and the amount of which it would probably be practicable to ascer- tain from official documents - — — 100,000,000 A multiplicity of articles of less importance, which being in a great measure superfluities, and dependent for their consump- tion on the taste of individuals, require to be noticed no far- ther than by assigning to them collectively their proportion to 1 the aggregate: this proportion we shall at present suppose to be about 17 per cent., or - - Total annual consumption - - — — • ^0,000,000 .350,000,000 Sucli is, or rather would be when conipleteJ, a table of our annual consumption at tiie present time. In iVamiug App.] Monty CutUracts. [95] or correcting such a table, we have evidently to consider two main points ; the (juantities consumed, and the pricL-. As to quantity, a variation can take place only with in- crease ol population or change of habits, anil any alteration of that kind must be so gradual, that we run very little hazard in assuming a similarity of amount during a given period, which, for the sake of precision, we shall suppose to be five years. As to price, the case is different; the produce of the soil may, from casualty in the season, rise 10 or 20 per cent., while our manufactures may exj)eri- ence a fall. The result, as far as founded on prices, must therefore undergo some change annually : for the sake of illustration we shall suppose in one )'ear a change differing in different articles, but ending in an average rise of '> per cent.: thus, — Expended hy Articles. Quantity Average the public consumed. price. on each article. Produce of the xoU covipult'il on the Qrs. .T. £ same quantities ; but with an ad- dition of 10 per cent, to the prices. Wheat 12,000,000 5j .3.-,000,000 Barley - - - 7,200,000 '21 9,000,000 Oats - ... 10,000,000 22 11,000,000 Butcher meat and aniinal food enhanced in the same propor- tion ... — — -8,500,000 Manufactures ; here we suppose a decrease of '> per cent. : thus, Woollens — — 1 9,000,000 Cottons — — 1 1,4(H'»,000 Linen - . . - — — IJ.'.'.IO.IXK) Silk . . - - — — 7,(;oo,oo(> Leather - ... — — 14,250,000 Hardware ... — — 8,500,0()0 Foreign arliclct. Sugar the same ... — — !»,000,000 Tea the same - - — — 8,000,000 In the other component parts of the table the fluctuations are supposed to change the amount of 170,000,000/. to Total - \^ 1 ,1 1«',< >*)0 367,500/X)0 The final change supjiosed in this statement is that XO'd. are required to effect the jnnch:isi's lor which 100/. siifliced in the preceding year. We proceed next to the C96] Plan for i!,hn7in a slcudij Valur lo [Apf, Apportionment of the respective Articles iii the former Table. Articles consumed. Expenditure on eacli Article. Proportion of the expendituii- on each article to the total expenditure of tlic public, calculated in parts of 100. Wheat .... Barley ... Oats .... Butcher meat and all animal food . - Woollens - - . . Linen - - - . Leather - - - - Cottons - - - Silk - ... Hardware - - - - Sugar - ... Tea . . - All otherheads of national consumption Total - £ 30,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 .55,000,000 20,000,000 1 5,000,000 1 5,000,000 12,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 1 70,000,000 8.57 2.57 2.85 10. 5.71 4.28 4.28 3.42 2.28 2.57 2.57 2.28 48.62 350,000,000 100 To those who apprehend complexity in such calculations, we would observe, that the details would rest with persons employed for the purpose; and that the public would re- quire to know only the result, which, as in the present returns of the averages of sugar and corn, might be com« municated in a few sentences. Ought a Table of National Coiisumption to comprise the smaller Heads of Expenditure ? — To calculate the smaller items of expenditure would be a task of great difficulty, and, as far as we can judge, of little utility, since it is easy to make an allowance for the proportion omitted. Besides, we ought to introduce into the table no sum of which the accuracy is not ascertained with considerable confidence from official documents, and of which the importance is not such as to reward the labour of enquiry and comparison. Were the articles enumerated to form only 50 per cent, of the total national consumption, the result, supposing them to be articles of general use, would afford a very fair scale for comparing the prices of different years. A tiible com- plete in all its parts would, doubtless, be preferable ; but as the heads of our public offices, like our individual en- quirers, are as yet in only an early stage of statistical App.] MuiK'u Cuntrach. [y7] researcli, a consiJerahle time must elapse ere their irmte- rials acquire a finished Ibrm. In the case of the lower orders, a knowledge of the cost of a few great lieads of expenditure, such as corn, course clothiqg, beer, fuel, would be found suflicient. There ought evidently to be a material diireruiice in the plan of a table for them and of one lor their superiors, a consideration which leads us to another (juery in this interesting but somewhat intricate tliscussion. Hem far are i)articidm- Tables required for partieuhir Classes P — A scale formed on the table in the text is adapted to very many persons in the middle and up|>er classes, — to the receivers of annuities, wlnther fi(Mn the public funds or mortgages, — the hmdlord who depends on his rent, — the clerk who depends on his s;ilary. Hut in regard to several of the classes currently termed productive, the question is different, as will apjHsar from a reference to a specific case, such as that of Farmers on Lease. — The situation of the farmer on lease, though materially affected by the value of money in pur- chases generally, depends still more on the})iice oitlie j)ro- duce he raises; — of corn, if his occupancy be chiefly uiicicr the plough; of butcher meat, butter, cheese, if it be'chiefly grass land. Leases oufdit thus to be drawn with a reference to the market price of produce, comi)uletl on the average of a scries of years. (3r, if a regulator of a more com- prehensive character be desired, the price of the produce might be combined with a table of the price of couimo- tless, on a very substantial basis, and nothing but the unfortunate fluctuations in indi- vidual property, attendant on our rapid transitions, would have prcventetl us from inserting a larger sum (probably 16 or 18,000,000, instead of 11,000,000/.) as the mea- sure of the increase of national wealth, arising from our improvements. The Malt Tax. — The hopes of the agriculturists were at one time excited by the expected repeal of a large share of the duty on malt; but, while we sympathize with their sufferings and anxiously desire a diminution of their tithe and j)oor-rate, we cannot help expressing a doubt of the expediency of any great reduction of taxation on an article already so much cheapened b}- the fall of the materials. Sudden changes are to be avoided ; malt liquor conies only in some respects under the description of a necessary of lil'e; and the extended cultivation of barley that might have been prompted by a reduction of duty, would probably have pre- vented any material rise in the price. Prices of Cojnmoditics a Century ago. Text, p. 379. — In comparing our present national income with that of the last century, we have assumed the power of money in the pur- chase of commodities as less at present by 30 per cent, than in the reign of George I., or in any period of last century prior to 1792. This allowance is ample when we take into account that prices have fallen since 1820, and that the prospect of war, at least of such a war as would be pro- ductive of general enhancement, seems very remote. On this interesting topic we have given a short table in page [7] of the Appendix. Those who dissent from this opinion, and who imagine money to have been formerly of much greater value, will do well to recollect that many manu- factures are now cheaper than in that age, and that roi-7i is very little dearer. The chief difference, in fact, is in pro- fessional fees, salaries, and wages, all raised during the war, and not yet brought to a level like the price of jiroduce, manufactures, or whatever is regulated at aii open market. A pp.] On Finance. [105] Then as to the charges of house-keeping in a compre- hensive sense, the difference between the present time and a century ago, resolves itself chiefly into a difference in ihf style of living; not unlike the existing difference between France and England, in which, though the prices of a number of articles are on a par, the total outlay is less in France, in consequence of the plainer habits of the country. Historical Parallel of the Revenue of England and France in\x 385. of the Text. — These sums exhibit the net produce of the taxes, after deducting the expence of collecting ; ami the latter years of the column of England include ScotLuid and Ireland. Back-ward State of France. Extract of a letter from ISIr. S. Gray to Monsieur J. B. Say, printed in 1817 in the Apj>endix lo the volume, entitled " All Classes productive." " In a visit which I made to your country last year, I confess I did not find such striking or brilliant results. Travelling partly with a view to ascertain how far the doc- trines, which I had deduced from the facts around me in our island, as well as from information, agreed with the facts found in so populous a state as France-, I scrutiui/cil as narrowly as I could the circumstances of the j)opulation. Considering the extension of buildings, and an improvement in their style, which show the increase of ])opulation com- bined with the concomitant increase of wealth, as the surest symptoms of a thriving country, I paid particular attention to your towns and villages in these points, and am sorry to say, I saw no progress whatever. I have no recollection of any strictly additional buildings : the only new buildings which I perceived were in some villages that had been partly destroyed in tiie conflicts with the invading armies. Jn truth, though we alM) are sufllring from an unusual stag- nation, I found, at my return, more new houses going on in the petty suburb of London, Camden Town, and its neighbourhood, than I had seen in the whole of my route through France. Every town and every village -H-emcd stationary. I own, however, I found nnich of what I ex- pected, on my principles, from a state so long well peopled. There was an appearance of wealth, though, in genernl, it is true, but of little cajiital. ^'ollr soil is almoM univcr?ally under cultivation, but, with some exception*, in a very in- ferior style. Your people arc generally employed and busy, [Hj [106] On Finance. (Ai*P. vet iiol very cncctively. Though the population of Frande i)e to tliat of Eufrlnnd only as about 1.50 to 230 per square niilo, France seems to be at a still more considerable rate behind our island in capital, and the results of active capital. In several statistical points we have got the start of a full century before you." THE LND. London : Printed by A. & R. Spottiswoode, New-Street-Square. UNIVERSITY OF < *' '»^ORNIA I '" * ^^\ UC SOUTHf RN RtC,\(\Ul.i i ibbaov [«; AA 001 261 275 fV^-^B iV7 i 1 m 1 ! in ■