University of Califbmia 
 College of Agriculture 
 Agricultural Experiment Station 
 Berkeley, California 
 
 Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average P.O.B, Prices of 
 Canned Apricots, 19?>6-27 to 1948-49 
 
 Sidney Hoos 
 
 June 1949 
 Contribution from the 
 Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics 
 Mimeographed Report No. 97 
 
 UNIVERSITY OF CAUFORI«A 
 
 LIBRARr 
 
 COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURF 
 
 Davis 
 
I 
 
 i 
 
statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F»O..B, Prices of 
 Canned Apricots,. 1926-27 to 1948-49 
 
 Sidney Koos^'^ 
 
 The purpose of this report is to present the results of a statistical 
 analysis of the major factors which have influenced the annual average f,o,b* 
 prices received for canned apricots by canners in California from 1926-27 through 
 1948-49. The years 1941-42 through 1946-47 were excluded from the analysis be- 
 cause of the abnormal conditions which prevailed during the war years, such as 
 federal price control,, and in 1946-47 when a large proportion of canner ship- 
 ments went into the refilling of the supply pipe line rather than into con-. 
 Burners' hands. 
 
 In this analysis the average relationships which prevailed between this f.o.b. 
 prices of canned apricots and three factors were measured. These three factors 
 are (l) total domestic shipments of California canned apricots; (2) index of 
 nonagricultural inoonie payments in the United States; and (3) adjusted index 
 of prices nf competing canned fruits,. 
 
 The average relations between the f.o.b» price and each of the independent 
 variables are shown graphically by the lines in figure 1, Expressed in numerical 
 terms these relations are as follows; 1 
 
 (a) A change of one million cases in domestic shipments of California 
 canned apricots, with nonagricultural income and with competing canned 
 fjruit prices held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change 
 in the opposite direction of 44 cents a case in the f.o.b, price of canned 
 apricots. This average relation is shown by the diagonal line in panel A 
 of figure 1, 
 
 1/ 
 
 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics ,, Associate Agricultural 
 Economist in the Experiment Station, and Associate Agricultural Economist on 
 the Giannini Foundation,,, 
 
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2. 
 
 (b) A change of 10 per cent in the index of nonagricultural income 
 
 in the United States, with domestic shipments of California canned apricots 
 and with prices of competing canned fruits held constant^ was on the average 
 accompanied by a change in the same direction of 29 cents a case in the 
 f.o.b, price of California canned apricots* This average relation is 
 shown by the curve in panel B of figure 1, . 
 
 (c) A change of 10 points in the adjusted index of prices of com- 
 peting canned fruits, with domestic shipments of California canned 
 apricots and with nonagricultural income held constant, was on the 
 average accompanied by a change in the same direction of 25 cents a 
 case in the f,o«b. price of California canned apricots. This average 
 relation is shown by the diagonal line in panel C of figure 1, • | 
 Differences between the actual prices and those explained by the statistical 
 
 analysis are given in table 4, column 3, . These differences are plotted as devia- ' 
 tions from the diagonal (net regression) lines in panels A, 3, and C of figure 1, 
 
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3* 
 
 Technical Note, -"-With price as the dependent variable and the three 
 factors mentioned above as the independent variables » the multiple linear 
 regression equation fitted by the method of least square to the series cover- 
 ing the years 1926-27 through 1948-49 (excluding 1941-42 through 1946-47) is: 
 (1) ^ -12,914634 - 0.000442Xg + 7.115318 logj^QXg + 0.025365X^.f 
 
 (3.255421) (12.844177) (4.405240) 
 where X^ is the annual average f.o.b. price of California canned apricots (in 
 dollars per case)j 
 
 Xg is the domestic shipments of California canned apricots (in units of 
 
 1,000 cases)} ' | 
 
 X„ is the index of nonagricultural income in the United States (1935-1939* 
 o 
 
 100) I 
 
 is the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits (1935-1939«= 
 
 100) I 
 
 the figures in parentheses are t-ratios of the net regression coefficientsj 
 the adjusted coefficient of multiple correlation S"^ « 0.968f 
 the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination R]^^p34 " 0i93T-« 
 
:';'c strap .s:.'' 
 
4. 
 
 TaBLE 1 
 
 Statistical Analysis of Annual Averap:© F.O.B, 
 Prices of California Cannes] Apricots 
 Variables Used in the Analyses 
 (1926-27 Through 1948-49, Excluding 1940-41 Through 1946-47) 
 
 Year, 
 
 
 Domestic 
 
 Index of 
 
 Adjusted 
 
 index 
 
 June 
 
 F.o.b. price 
 
 shipments 
 
 United States 
 
 of prices of 
 
 through 
 
 canned 
 
 of canned 
 
 nonapjri cultural 
 
 competing 
 
 May 
 
 apricots 
 
 apricots 
 
 income 
 1 _ 1 
 
 canned fruits 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 ^ 
 
 
 4 
 
 
 
 dollars per case 
 
 1,000 casesa/ 
 
 193E-1939-1;J0 
 
 1935-1939=100 
 
 1926-27 
 
 3.85 
 
 2,038 
 
 115.3 
 
 120* 
 
 0 
 
 1927-28 
 
 3.97 
 
 1,779 
 
 116.2 
 
 108. 
 
 7 
 
 1928-29 
 
 3.67 
 
 2,195 
 
 120.7 
 
 104. 
 
 7 
 
 1929-30 
 
 3.97 
 
 2,259 
 
 120.2 
 
 124. 
 
 0 
 
 1930-31 
 
 3.32 
 
 2,183 
 
 104.4 
 
 108. 
 
 0 
 
 
 <i .64 
 
 1 ,541 
 
 8o .0 
 
 108. 
 
 4 
 
 1932-33 
 
 2.23 
 
 1,521 
 
 68.1 
 
 118. 
 
 9 
 
 1933-34 
 
 2.37 
 
 2,034 
 
 75/5 
 
 123. 
 
 3 
 
 1934-35 
 
 3.47 
 
 1,477 
 
 82.1 
 
 124. 
 
 8 
 
 1935-36 
 
 2.93 
 
 1,951 
 
 91.0 
 
 108. 
 
 1 
 
 1936-37 
 
 2.75 
 
 2,992 
 
 106.5 
 
 94 k 
 
 9 
 
 1937-38 
 
 3.02 
 
 2,901 
 
 103.3 
 
 106. 
 
 0 
 
 1938-39 
 
 2.55 
 
 2,562 
 
 101.0 
 
 90. 
 
 8. 
 
 1939-40 
 
 2.77 
 
 2,640 
 
 109.6 
 
 90. 
 
 5 
 
 1947-48 
 
 5.33 
 
 2,415 
 
 292.1 
 
 64. 
 
 3 
 
 1948-49b/ 
 
 4.55 
 
 3,521 
 
 312.3 
 
 63. 
 
 0 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 a/ No. 2-|- can basis, 
 b/ Preliminary, subject to revision. 
 
 Sources of data; 
 
 Col. 1: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are weighted average f.o.b. 
 
 prices received by canners for all grades and sizes of cans. 1948-49 
 price based on period June 1, 1948-April 30, 1949. 
 
 Col. 2: Column 7, table 2. ' 
 
 Col. 3: Simple average of the pack-year monthly indices of national income, ex- 
 cluding agricultural income, 1935-1939 average equals 100. Monthly in- 
 come data compiled from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Survey of Current 
 Business. Unrevised figures used for months prior to June 1939 and 
 revised income figures used for June 1939 and following months. The 
 revised income data obtained from July 1947 Supplement to Survey of 
 Current Business and later monthly issues. Indexes for April and May 
 1949 estimated. 
 
 Col. 4: For sources and method of construction see table 3. 
 

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5. 
 
 Statistical Analysis of Annual Average F.O.B. prices of 
 
 California Canned Apricots 
 (1926-27 through 1948-49, excluding 1940-41 through 1946-47) 
 
 X' = 4.331624 - 0,000442 X 
 1.2 2 
 
 4- 
 
 X 34 
 
 x27 
 
 © 
 
 32 X 
 
 X 35 X 30 
 X 28 
 
 x31 
 
 X 47 
 x29 ^\3c38 
 
 x39 
 
 x33 
 
 X 37 
 X 36 
 
 X 48 
 
 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 
 
 Xg - Domestic shipments - 1,000 cases of California canned apricots,. 
 
 100 
 
 150 
 
 200 
 
 250 
 
 300 
 
 X = Index of U.S. Konagricultural Income j 1935-1959 = 100.t 
 3 
 
I 
 
 I 
 
 •'1 . 
 
X - Adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits — 
 ^ 1935-1939 « 100. 
 
hi .: 
 
7. 
 
 TABLE 2 
 
 California Canned Apricots: Pack, Carry-over and Shipments 
 
 Year, 
 
 
 Carry-over 
 
 
 Carry-over 
 
 
 
 
 
 June 
 
 
 from 
 
 Available 
 
 into 
 
 
 
 
 
 through 
 
 
 preceding 
 
 for 
 
 following 
 
 Total 
 
 
 I 
 
 JQUIQ Sole 
 
 May 
 
 Pack 
 
 vear 
 
 shipment 
 
 year 
 
 shipments 
 
 Exports 
 
 s 
 
 >nipinen uS 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 1 
 
 4 
 
 5 
 
 6 
 
 
 7 
 
 
 1,000 casesV 
 
 
 1Q26-27 
 
 3,227 
 
 21 
 
 3,248 
 
 401 
 
 2,847 
 
 809 
 
 
 2,038 
 
 1927-28 
 
 2,960 
 
 401 
 
 3,361 
 
 952 
 
 2,409 
 
 630 
 
 
 1,779 
 
 192R-29 
 
 1,991 
 
 952 
 
 2,943 
 
 154 
 
 2,789 
 
 594 
 
 
 2,195 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4,023 
 
 154 
 
 4,177 
 
 1,189 
 
 2,988 
 
 729 
 
 
 2,259 . 
 
 19.^0-31 
 
 1,954 
 
 1,189 
 
 3,143 
 
 546 
 
 2,597 
 
 414 
 
 
 2,183 
 
 1931-32 
 
 2,006 
 
 546 
 
 2,552 
 
 515 
 
 2,037 
 
 496 
 
 
 1,541 
 
 1932-33 
 
 1,805 
 
 515 
 
 2,320 
 
 323 
 
 1,997 
 
 476 
 
 
 1,521 
 
 1933-34 
 
 2,416 
 
 323 
 
 2,739 
 
 167 
 
 2,572 
 
 538 
 
 
 2,034 
 
 1934-35 
 
 1,774 
 
 167 
 
 1,941 
 
 227 
 
 1,714 
 
 237 
 
 
 1 ,477 
 
 1935-36 
 
 3,164 
 
 227 
 
 3,391 
 
 844 
 
 2,547 
 
 596 
 
 
 1,951 , 
 
 1936-37 
 
 2,899 
 
 844 
 
 3,743 
 
 228 
 
 3,515 
 
 523 
 
 
 2,992 
 
 1937-38 
 
 5,553 
 
 228 
 
 5,781 
 
 2,305 
 
 3,476 
 
 575 
 
 
 2,901 . 
 
 1938-39 
 
 1,547 
 
 2,305 
 
 3,852 
 
 528 
 
 3,324 
 
 762 
 
 
 2,562 
 
 1939-40 
 
 3,338 
 
 528 
 
 3,866 
 
 479 
 
 3,387 
 
 747 
 
 
 2,640 . 
 
 1947-48 . 
 
 3,063 
 
 279 
 
 3,342 
 
 639 
 
 2,703 
 
 288 
 
 
 2,415 
 
 1948-49bi|4,651 
 
 639 
 
 5,290 
 
 1,500 
 
 3,790 
 
 269 
 
 
 3,521 
 
 a/ No. 2^ can basis; 
 
 b/ Preliminary, subject to revision. 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 Cols. 1 through 5: Compiled by Canners League of California. 
 
 Col. 6: U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce (March, 
 
 April, May 1949, estimated) converted at 45 pounds per case of 24 
 
 No. 2-| cans . 
 Col. 7: Column 5 minus column 6. 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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TABLi!. 3 
 
 Construction of Index of Prices of Canned Fruits Competing with Canned Apricots 
 
 Year 
 
 Prices 
 
 Helatives of prices 
 
 Unadjusted 
 
 Index of 
 
 Adjusted index 
 
 June 
 
 Canned 
 
 Canned 
 
 Canned 
 
 Canned 
 
 Canned 
 
 Canned 
 
 index of 
 
 United States 
 
 of prices of 
 
 through 
 
 clingstone 
 
 Bartlett 
 
 Hawaiian 
 
 clingstone 
 
 Bartlett 
 
 Hawaiian 
 
 prices of competing 
 
 nonagri cultural 
 
 comoeting 
 
 May 
 
 ueaches 
 
 pears 
 
 oineapole 
 
 peaches 
 
 pears 
 
 pineapple 
 
 canned fruits 
 
 inccme 
 
 canned fruits 
 
 
 1 ' 
 
 - 2 
 
 
 
 c; 
 
 6 
 
 7 
 
 
 o 
 
 
 do-lars oer case 
 
 
 
 
 1935-1939=100 
 
 
 
 1926-27 
 
 3.66 
 
 4.31 
 
 4.70 
 
 142.2 
 
 144.1 
 
 130.6 
 
 138.4 
 
 115.3 
 
 120.0 
 
 1927-28 
 
 3.17 
 
 4.60 
 
 4.20 
 
 123.2 
 
 153.8 
 
 116 .7 
 
 126.3 
 
 116.2 
 
 108.7 
 
 1928-29 
 
 3 • 22 
 
 4.13 
 
 4.40 
 
 125.1 
 
 138.1 
 
 122.2 
 
 126.4 
 
 120.7 
 
 104.7 
 
 1929-30 
 
 4.08 
 
 4.82 
 
 4.70 
 
 158.5 
 
 161 .2 
 
 130.6 
 
 149.1 
 
 120.2 
 
 124.0 
 
 1930-31 
 
 O Q O 
 C .OO 
 
 
 4 .Ou 
 
 111.9 
 
 118.1 
 
 111.1 
 
 112.7 
 
 104.-4 
 
 108.0 
 
 1931-32 
 
 2.55 
 
 2.82 
 
 3.00 
 
 99.1 
 
 94.3 
 
 83.3 
 
 92;7 
 
 85.5 
 
 108.4 
 
 1932-33 
 
 1.97 
 
 2.48 
 
 3.10 
 
 76.5 
 
 82.9 
 
 86.1 
 
 81.0 
 
 68.1 
 
 118-.9 
 
 1933-34 
 
 2.31 
 
 2.64 
 
 3:60 
 
 89.7 
 
 88.3 
 
 100.0 
 
 93.1 
 
 75,5 
 
 123.3 
 
 1934-35 
 
 2.69 
 
 3.05 
 
 3.60 
 
 104.5 
 
 102.0 
 
 100.0 
 
 102.5 
 
 82.1 
 
 124.8 
 
 1935-36 
 
 2.51 
 
 2.92 
 
 3.60 
 
 97 .5 
 
 97 .7 
 
 100.0 
 
 98.4 
 
 91.0 
 
 108.1 
 
 XuOO — sJ f 
 
 2.66 
 
 2,92 
 
 3.60 
 
 103.3 
 
 97.7 
 
 100.0 
 
 101 .1 
 
 106i5 
 
 94v9 
 
 1937-38 
 
 2.96 
 
 3.C7 
 
 3;80 
 
 115.0 
 
 102.7 
 
 105.6 
 
 109.5 
 
 103 i3 
 
 106.0 
 
 1938-39 
 
 2.30 
 
 2.77 
 
 3.40 
 
 89.4 
 
 92.6 
 
 94.4 
 
 91.7 
 
 101.0 
 
 90.8 
 
 1939-40 
 
 2.44 
 
 3,27 
 
 3.60 
 
 94.8 
 
 109.4 
 
 JOO.O 
 
 99.2 
 
 109.6 
 
 90.5 
 
 1947-48 
 
 , 4.82 
 
 7.25 
 
 5.80 
 
 187.3 
 
 242.5 
 
 161.1 
 
 187.8 
 
 292.1 
 
 64.3 
 
 1948-49^ 
 
 4.90 
 
 7.37 
 
 6.50 
 
 190.4 
 
 246.5 
 
 180.6 
 
 196.8 
 
 312.3 
 
 63.0 
 
 f:/ Preliminary, subject to revision. 
 
 Sources of data: 
 
 tols. 1 and 2: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are weighted average f.o.b. prices of all grades and sizes of 
 
 cans, oanned clingstone peach prices are for California; and canned Bartlett pear prices are for the 
 
 Pacific Coast, except 1947-48 is for California. The 1948-49 prices for canned clingstone peaches and ^ 
 canned Bartlett pears based on period June 1, 1948--April 1949. 
 
 (Continued on next page.) 
 
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Table 3 continued. 
 
 Col. 3: Compiled by S. W. Shear for No. 2^ sliced fancy pineapple, Hawaiian, f.o.b. San Francisco from published 
 
 quotations supplemented by trade information. 
 Cols. 4, 5 and 6: i rices p-iven in columns 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in per cent of their 1935-1939 averages-- 
 
 cannfcd clinestone peaches, $2,574; canned Bartlett pears, $2,990; canned pineapples, $3.60. 
 Gol. 7: I'ieiehted combination of relatives in columns 4, 5, and 6 using the following weights --canned clingstone 
 
 peaches, 8; canned Bartlett pears, 3; canned pineapples, 3. 
 Col. 8: From table 1, column 3. 
 Col. 9: Uolumh 7 divided by column 8. 
 
TABLE 4 
 
 10, 
 
 Actual and Estj.Jnated F.O.B. Prices of California Carmod Apr-'cots 
 (1926-27 Through 1948-49, Excluding 1940-41 Through 1946-47) 
 
 V-,-. -..•■^ 
 
 
 
 Difference 
 
 ColVimn 
 
 "3 " ~ 
 
 
 
 
 column 2 
 
 as 
 
 
 Year, June 
 
 Actual 
 
 Estimated 
 
 minus 
 
 per cent 
 
 through May 
 
 price 
 
 price 
 
 column 1 
 
 of colu 
 
 mn 1 
 
 
 1 
 
 2 
 
 3 
 
 4 
 
 
 
 
 dollars per 
 
 case 
 
 per cent 
 
 1926-27 
 
 3.85 
 
 3.90 
 
 0.05 
 
 1.30 
 
 
 1927-28 
 
 3.97 
 
 3.75 
 
 -0.22 
 
 -5.54 
 
 
 1928-29 
 
 3.67 
 
 3.58 
 
 -0.09 
 
 -2.45 
 
 
 1929-30 
 
 3.97 
 
 4.03 
 
 .0.06 
 
 .1.51 
 
 
 1930-31 
 
 3.32 
 
 3.22 
 
 -0.10 
 
 ■rS.Ol 
 
 
 1931-32 
 
 2,64 
 
 2.90 
 
 .0.26 
 
 9.85 
 
 
 1932-33 
 
 2.23 
 
 2.47 
 
 0.24 
 
 10.76 
 
 
 1933-34 
 
 2.37 
 
 2.68 
 
 0.31 
 
 13.08 
 
 
 1934-35 
 
 3.47 
 
 3.22 
 
 • -0.25 
 
 ■ -7.20 
 
 
 1935-36 
 
 2.93 
 
 2.90 
 
 • -0.03 
 
 -1.02 
 
 
 1936-37 
 
 2.75 
 
 2.59 
 
 -0.16 
 
 -5.82 
 
 
 • 1937-38 
 
 .3.02 
 
 2.82 
 
 -0.20 
 
 ■ -6.62 
 
 
 1938-39 
 
 2.55 
 
 2.52 
 
 -0.03 
 
 -1.18 
 
 
 J.c?0.»J— 
 
 9 77 
 
 9 7*^ 
 
 — U « Uft 
 
 -1.44 
 
 
 1 1947-48 
 
 5.33 
 
 5.19 
 
 • -0.14 
 
 -2.63 
 
 
 1948-49 a/ 
 
 - 4.55 
 
 4.88 
 
 0.33 
 
 7,25 
 
 
 a / t'reliminary 
 
 , 
 
 
 
 
 
 Sources of 
 
 data: 
 
 
 
 
 
 Col. 1: 
 
 From table 1, 
 
 colujTin 1. 
 
 
 
 
 Col. 2: 
 
 Sstisated by equr^tion 1, page 
 
 3. 
 
 
 
 Col. 3; 
 
 Column 2 minus 
 
 colujnn .1. 
 
 
 
 
 Col, 4: Column 3 as per cent 01 colujnn 1, 
 
,01 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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