University of Califbmia
College of Agriculture
Agricultural Experiment Station
Berkeley, California
Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average P.O.B, Prices of
Canned Apricots, 19?>6-27 to 1948-49
Sidney Hoos
June 1949
Contribution from the
Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics
Mimeographed Report No. 97
UNIVERSITY OF CAUFORI«A
LIBRARr
COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURF
Davis
I
i
statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F»O..B, Prices of
Canned Apricots,. 1926-27 to 1948-49
Sidney Koos^'^
The purpose of this report is to present the results of a statistical
analysis of the major factors which have influenced the annual average f,o,b*
prices received for canned apricots by canners in California from 1926-27 through
1948-49. The years 1941-42 through 1946-47 were excluded from the analysis be-
cause of the abnormal conditions which prevailed during the war years, such as
federal price control,, and in 1946-47 when a large proportion of canner ship-
ments went into the refilling of the supply pipe line rather than into con-.
Burners' hands.
In this analysis the average relationships which prevailed between this f.o.b.
prices of canned apricots and three factors were measured. These three factors
are (l) total domestic shipments of California canned apricots; (2) index of
nonagricultural inoonie payments in the United States; and (3) adjusted index
of prices nf competing canned fruits,.
The average relations between the f.o.b» price and each of the independent
variables are shown graphically by the lines in figure 1, Expressed in numerical
terms these relations are as follows; 1
(a) A change of one million cases in domestic shipments of California
canned apricots, with nonagricultural income and with competing canned
fjruit prices held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change
in the opposite direction of 44 cents a case in the f.o.b, price of canned
apricots. This average relation is shown by the diagonal line in panel A
of figure 1,
1/
Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics ,, Associate Agricultural
Economist in the Experiment Station, and Associate Agricultural Economist on
the Giannini Foundation,,,
io'"«3-5i^*i"*'^«.0«^-.^?ii!'r?'.7A: i,«ij:-?sA.WlJ ''?0'.6)*i^i'^ -lAAWfe^-^S^o
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bj8" ffcit" 'iR'^ ••'''^ ■•^'H'.t ■■^■ni'^.'.ib- bf>l ii'f'i-tT'tl^>tAyf- anotJii^ricrc. I-^MoW fl ■»/i*'^b -dSt/fl!* ■
-ftao •o*ni--ts«f:*: ='i«>r*iSn '^Jwiii =«iqi<T .•^Xqq"?'-9riii'lo '^■n ■.X-Uiei arte;- W^^/ c!:iSw
Kdbiti -J^^^a-tit&a IwJ^u;:^^ t^i'^^'-!-''- m ^ .-•.:j;:-..^v.>q .k;^-; ;.- • i - ^ - .^^-prt**** ■
• a*oil6t. 3»tB snd-j^iSl^t ^^aailt .8r^t)3■
)
2.
(b) A change of 10 per cent in the index of nonagricultural income
in the United States, with domestic shipments of California canned apricots
and with prices of competing canned fruits held constant^ was on the average
accompanied by a change in the same direction of 29 cents a case in the
f.o.b, price of California canned apricots* This average relation is
shown by the curve in panel B of figure 1, .
(c) A change of 10 points in the adjusted index of prices of com-
peting canned fruits, with domestic shipments of California canned
apricots and with nonagricultural income held constant, was on the
average accompanied by a change in the same direction of 25 cents a
case in the f,o«b. price of California canned apricots. This average
relation is shown by the diagonal line in panel C of figure 1, • |
Differences between the actual prices and those explained by the statistical
analysis are given in table 4, column 3, . These differences are plotted as devia- '
tions from the diagonal (net regression) lines in panels A, 3, and C of figure 1,
■> /V4.Ta,r^ ' yd-6s»{iis.-;:;- r r.vf * a ita let,"
3*
Technical Note, -"-With price as the dependent variable and the three
factors mentioned above as the independent variables » the multiple linear
regression equation fitted by the method of least square to the series cover-
ing the years 1926-27 through 1948-49 (excluding 1941-42 through 1946-47) is:
(1) ^ -12,914634 - 0.000442Xg + 7.115318 logj^QXg + 0.025365X^.f
(3.255421) (12.844177) (4.405240)
where X^ is the annual average f.o.b. price of California canned apricots (in
dollars per case)j
Xg is the domestic shipments of California canned apricots (in units of
1,000 cases)} ' |
X„ is the index of nonagricultural income in the United States (1935-1939*
o
100) I
is the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits (1935-1939«=
100) I
the figures in parentheses are t-ratios of the net regression coefficientsj
the adjusted coefficient of multiple correlation S"^ « 0.968f
the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination R]^^p34 " 0i93T-«
:';'c strap .s:.''
4.
TaBLE 1
Statistical Analysis of Annual Averap:© F.O.B,
Prices of California Cannes] Apricots
Variables Used in the Analyses
(1926-27 Through 1948-49, Excluding 1940-41 Through 1946-47)
Year,
Domestic
Index of
Adjusted
index
June
F.o.b. price
shipments
United States
of prices of
through
canned
of canned
nonapjri cultural
competing
May
apricots
apricots
income
1 _ 1
canned fruits
1
2 ^
4
dollars per case
1,000 casesa/
193E-1939-1;J0
1935-1939=100
1926-27
3.85
2,038
115.3
120*
0
1927-28
3.97
1,779
116.2
108.
7
1928-29
3.67
2,195
120.7
104.
7
1929-30
3.97
2,259
120.2
124.
0
1930-31
3.32
2,183
104.4
108.
0
<i .64
1 ,541
8o .0
108.
4
1932-33
2.23
1,521
68.1
118.
9
1933-34
2.37
2,034
75/5
123.
3
1934-35
3.47
1,477
82.1
124.
8
1935-36
2.93
1,951
91.0
108.
1
1936-37
2.75
2,992
106.5
94 k
9
1937-38
3.02
2,901
103.3
106.
0
1938-39
2.55
2,562
101.0
90.
8.
1939-40
2.77
2,640
109.6
90.
5
1947-48
5.33
2,415
292.1
64.
3
1948-49b/
4.55
3,521
312.3
63.
0
a/ No. 2-|- can basis,
b/ Preliminary, subject to revision.
Sources of data;
Col. 1: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are weighted average f.o.b.
prices received by canners for all grades and sizes of cans. 1948-49
price based on period June 1, 1948-April 30, 1949.
Col. 2: Column 7, table 2. '
Col. 3: Simple average of the pack-year monthly indices of national income, ex-
cluding agricultural income, 1935-1939 average equals 100. Monthly in-
come data compiled from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Survey of Current
Business. Unrevised figures used for months prior to June 1939 and
revised income figures used for June 1939 and following months. The
revised income data obtained from July 1947 Supplement to Survey of
Current Business and later monthly issues. Indexes for April and May
1949 estimated.
Col. 4: For sources and method of construction see table 3.
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5.
Statistical Analysis of Annual Average F.O.B. prices of
California Canned Apricots
(1926-27 through 1948-49, excluding 1940-41 through 1946-47)
X' = 4.331624 - 0,000442 X
1.2 2
4-
X 34
x27
©
32 X
X 35 X 30
X 28
x31
X 47
x29 ^\3c38
x39
x33
X 37
X 36
X 48
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Xg - Domestic shipments - 1,000 cases of California canned apricots,.
100
150
200
250
300
X = Index of U.S. Konagricultural Income j 1935-1959 = 100.t
3
I
I
•'1 .
X - Adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits —
^ 1935-1939 « 100.
hi .:
7.
TABLE 2
California Canned Apricots: Pack, Carry-over and Shipments
Year,
Carry-over
Carry-over
June
from
Available
into
through
preceding
for
following
Total
I
JQUIQ Sole
May
Pack
vear
shipment
year
shipments
Exports
s
>nipinen uS
1
2
1
4
5
6
7
1,000 casesV
1Q26-27
3,227
21
3,248
401
2,847
809
2,038
1927-28
2,960
401
3,361
952
2,409
630
1,779
192R-29
1,991
952
2,943
154
2,789
594
2,195
1929-30
4,023
154
4,177
1,189
2,988
729
2,259 .
19.^0-31
1,954
1,189
3,143
546
2,597
414
2,183
1931-32
2,006
546
2,552
515
2,037
496
1,541
1932-33
1,805
515
2,320
323
1,997
476
1,521
1933-34
2,416
323
2,739
167
2,572
538
2,034
1934-35
1,774
167
1,941
227
1,714
237
1 ,477
1935-36
3,164
227
3,391
844
2,547
596
1,951 ,
1936-37
2,899
844
3,743
228
3,515
523
2,992
1937-38
5,553
228
5,781
2,305
3,476
575
2,901 .
1938-39
1,547
2,305
3,852
528
3,324
762
2,562
1939-40
3,338
528
3,866
479
3,387
747
2,640 .
1947-48 .
3,063
279
3,342
639
2,703
288
2,415
1948-49bi|4,651
639
5,290
1,500
3,790
269
3,521
a/ No. 2^ can basis;
b/ Preliminary, subject to revision.
Sources of data:
Cols. 1 through 5: Compiled by Canners League of California.
Col. 6: U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce (March,
April, May 1949, estimated) converted at 45 pounds per case of 24
No. 2-| cans .
Col. 7: Column 5 minus column 6.
:
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TABLi!. 3
Construction of Index of Prices of Canned Fruits Competing with Canned Apricots
Year
Prices
Helatives of prices
Unadjusted
Index of
Adjusted index
June
Canned
Canned
Canned
Canned
Canned
Canned
index of
United States
of prices of
through
clingstone
Bartlett
Hawaiian
clingstone
Bartlett
Hawaiian
prices of competing
nonagri cultural
comoeting
May
ueaches
pears
oineapole
peaches
pears
pineapple
canned fruits
inccme
canned fruits
1 '
- 2
c;
6
7
o
do-lars oer case
1935-1939=100
1926-27
3.66
4.31
4.70
142.2
144.1
130.6
138.4
115.3
120.0
1927-28
3.17
4.60
4.20
123.2
153.8
116 .7
126.3
116.2
108.7
1928-29
3 • 22
4.13
4.40
125.1
138.1
122.2
126.4
120.7
104.7
1929-30
4.08
4.82
4.70
158.5
161 .2
130.6
149.1
120.2
124.0
1930-31
O Q O
C .OO
4 .Ou
111.9
118.1
111.1
112.7
104.-4
108.0
1931-32
2.55
2.82
3.00
99.1
94.3
83.3
92;7
85.5
108.4
1932-33
1.97
2.48
3.10
76.5
82.9
86.1
81.0
68.1
118-.9
1933-34
2.31
2.64
3:60
89.7
88.3
100.0
93.1
75,5
123.3
1934-35
2.69
3.05
3.60
104.5
102.0
100.0
102.5
82.1
124.8
1935-36
2.51
2.92
3.60
97 .5
97 .7
100.0
98.4
91.0
108.1
XuOO — sJ f
2.66
2,92
3.60
103.3
97.7
100.0
101 .1
106i5
94v9
1937-38
2.96
3.C7
3;80
115.0
102.7
105.6
109.5
103 i3
106.0
1938-39
2.30
2.77
3.40
89.4
92.6
94.4
91.7
101.0
90.8
1939-40
2.44
3,27
3.60
94.8
109.4
JOO.O
99.2
109.6
90.5
1947-48
, 4.82
7.25
5.80
187.3
242.5
161.1
187.8
292.1
64.3
1948-49^
4.90
7.37
6.50
190.4
246.5
180.6
196.8
312.3
63.0
f:/ Preliminary, subject to revision.
Sources of data:
tols. 1 and 2: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are weighted average f.o.b. prices of all grades and sizes of
cans, oanned clingstone peach prices are for California; and canned Bartlett pear prices are for the
Pacific Coast, except 1947-48 is for California. The 1948-49 prices for canned clingstone peaches and ^
canned Bartlett pears based on period June 1, 1948--April 1949.
(Continued on next page.)
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Table 3 continued.
Col. 3: Compiled by S. W. Shear for No. 2^ sliced fancy pineapple, Hawaiian, f.o.b. San Francisco from published
quotations supplemented by trade information.
Cols. 4, 5 and 6: i rices p-iven in columns 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in per cent of their 1935-1939 averages--
cannfcd clinestone peaches, $2,574; canned Bartlett pears, $2,990; canned pineapples, $3.60.
Gol. 7: I'ieiehted combination of relatives in columns 4, 5, and 6 using the following weights --canned clingstone
peaches, 8; canned Bartlett pears, 3; canned pineapples, 3.
Col. 8: From table 1, column 3.
Col. 9: Uolumh 7 divided by column 8.
TABLE 4
10,
Actual and Estj.Jnated F.O.B. Prices of California Carmod Apr-'cots
(1926-27 Through 1948-49, Excluding 1940-41 Through 1946-47)
V-,-. -..•■^
Difference
ColVimn
"3 " ~
column 2
as
Year, June
Actual
Estimated
minus
per cent
through May
price
price
column 1
of colu
mn 1
1
2
3
4
dollars per
case
per cent
1926-27
3.85
3.90
0.05
1.30
1927-28
3.97
3.75
-0.22
-5.54
1928-29
3.67
3.58
-0.09
-2.45
1929-30
3.97
4.03
.0.06
.1.51
1930-31
3.32
3.22
-0.10
■rS.Ol
1931-32
2,64
2.90
.0.26
9.85
1932-33
2.23
2.47
0.24
10.76
1933-34
2.37
2.68
0.31
13.08
1934-35
3.47
3.22
• -0.25
■ -7.20
1935-36
2.93
2.90
• -0.03
-1.02
1936-37
2.75
2.59
-0.16
-5.82
• 1937-38
.3.02
2.82
-0.20
■ -6.62
1938-39
2.55
2.52
-0.03
-1.18
J.c?0.»J—
9 77
9 7*^
— U « Uft
-1.44
1 1947-48
5.33
5.19
• -0.14
-2.63
1948-49 a/
- 4.55
4.88
0.33
7,25
a / t'reliminary
,
Sources of
data:
Col. 1:
From table 1,
colujTin 1.
Col. 2:
Sstisated by equr^tion 1, page
3.
Col. 3;
Column 2 minus
colujnn .1.
Col, 4: Column 3 as per cent 01 colujnn 1,
,01
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