University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.C.B, Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Bartlett Pears, 1926-27 to 1949-50 by Sidney Hoos July 1950 Contribution from the Gianninl Foundation of Agricultural Economics I'limeographed Report No, 110 LIBRARY '-OlUEXiE OF DAVIS AGRlCUl.TUfW >5. statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Bartlett Pears, 1926-27 to 1949-50 Sidney Hoosi/ The purpose of this report is to present the results of a statistical analy- sis of the major factors which have influenced the annual average f ,o,b, prices received for canned Bartlett pears by canners on the Pacific Coast from 1926-27 through 1949-60, The years 1940-41 through 1945-46 were excluded from the analy- sis because of the abnormal conditions which prevailed during the war years, such as federal price control; and 1946-47 was excluded because a large proportion of canner shipments went into the refilling of the supply pipe line rather than into consumers ' • hands. In the analysis the average relationships which prevailed between the f.o.b, prices of Pacific Coast canned Bartlett pears and three factors were measured. These three factors are (l) total domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned Bartlett pears; (2) index of honagricultural income payments in the United States; and (5) adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits. Expressed in nvmerical terms these average relations may be suEunarized as follows : I (a) A change of 10 per cent in domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned Bartlett pears, with nonagricultural income and with competing canned fruit prices held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the opposite direction of about Z-^ per cent in the f.o.b, price per case of canned Bartlett pears, (b) A change of 10 per cent in the index of nonagricultural income in the United States, with domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned Bartlett pears and with prices of competing canned 1/ Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economist in the Experi- ment Station and on the Giannini Foundation, ' lefT -Is JtrMfi'"!'' '"^'^rjihcWo'^fi '■^' bVinr-dr"' ' '' r 2* fruits held constant, tjas on the'averagie accompanied by a change in the same direction of about 12 per cent in the f,©.]?, price per case of canned Bartlett pears, . (c) A change of 10 per cent in the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits, with domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned Bartlett pears and with nonagricultural income held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the same direction of about 9 per cent in the f,o,b. price per case of canned Bartlett pears. Differences between the actual prices and those explained by the statistical analysis are given in table 4, column 3, . The f ,o,b," prices of canned Bartlett pears used in the report are industry average prices; they are based on records of canners, and reflect actual opera- tions of the canneries packing Bartlett pears in California and in the Northwest, The domestic movement of canned Bartlett pears from canners in the three Pacific Coast states has been derived from statistics issued by the Canners league of California and the Northwest Canners Association! the total movement from can- neries has been adjusted for exports to derive the movement to the domestic market. The index of United States nonagricultural income is based on reports issued by the United States Department of Commerce. At the time the analysis was made, . nonagricultural income figures for the 1949-50 season were available only through April 1950, Also, it must be noted that during Januaiy-April 1950 some 2,482 billion dollars were distributed to veterans in connection with insurance dividend adjustments. Such disbursements to veterans began in the middle of January 1950 and continued through the rest of the 1949-50 marketing season. The reported non- agricultural income figures, therefore, have been adjusted for the veteran insur- ance dividend disbursements noted above. In the nonagricultural income figures used for the 1949-50 in the analysis, it has been necessary to estimate the value for ^fay 1950; it has been estimated at the average value reflecting the 3-month f. ./:ft|^;:ft$/J'i,.:s>-:Pflf <^;,fef^^^^:a/gpcv..^s?> l^^^i^^ i^5?^^r=4p. .:^a9f^r?li^i''- 5. period February 1950 through April 1950, The level of competing canned fruit prices has been measured by an index con- structed in the same manner as in the previous reports on canned Bartlett pears j the construction of the index is explained in some detail in table 3 appended to this report^ The f,o.b, prices of canned apricots and canned clingstone peaches are based on reports from California canners, and reflect actual operations of the packers, Tho prices for canned apricots were compiled by the Canners League of California, and tho prices of canned clingstone peaches were compiled by the Cling Peach Advisor;'- Board, The prices of canned Hawaiian pineapple are based on pub- lished quotations supplemented by available trade information. Specific sources for tho several series of data used in the analysis, and more detailed specifications, arc noted in the explanatory footnotes to ta.bles 1, 2 and 3 appended to this report. In connection with the interpretation and use of the results of tho statisti- cal analysis summarized above, the following major highlights of the 1949-50 season are pertinent. The season opened (June 1, 1949) with a carry-over in canners.' hands of 751,000 cases (24/2^ basis), and 5,459 million cases of Bartlett pears were packed on tho Pacific Coast; thus, a total supply of 6,220 million cases were available. This compares with 4,557 million cases as the total supply for the pre- vious year 1948-49 which began with a carry-over of 726,000 cases and had a pack of 5,831 million cases. With a favorable level of national income and prices lower than in any of tho previous postwar years, very large shipments of Bartlett pears moved from the Pacific Coast canneries. Tho movement in 1949-50, in fact, exceeded that of tho earlier postwar years as well as the prewar years. As a result, the 1950-51 mar- keting year opened with stocks (sold and unsold) on June 1, 1950 of 448,000 cases in Pacific Coast canners' hands, or some 313,000 cases under the opening stocks of a year ago. :L:'':':.-j ^i; '..Ti;-;'':.:;;' ' ■-D cdi yTf ]f9j:f- (MOtf filow c... J-'i ♦9'r3>*r'£ii (X» fi 01J3 ^a^ujj' .... ffc- ;-iv;'.=i::=.i •: < . . i.t no brAonq . V •• . ■ • -TNiT < ■ ■ ■■•■I V'.- £ u-. '^ ■ ■ ■ . ■r>.iJ■:>i.^f " ; x'.;;;- -5.= ,.. ;■ ; . ■ ; 56 oilisj^ S r'-.-cv;- .1.: 4. TABLE 1 Statistical Analysis of Annual Average F..O.,B, Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Ba rtlett Pea rs (1926-27 Through 1949-50, Excluding 1940^1 Through 1946-47) Year, Pacific Coast Domestic Index of Adjusted index June f«p-,b» price shipments United States of prices of through canned of canned nonagricultural competinj T May Bartlett pears Bartlett pears income canned fruits ' i 1 r — — — ______ 2 3 4 dollars per case 1,000 casesS/ 1935-1939=100 xyoo— lyoy— . 1926-27 4.31 1,957 115,3 119,0 1927-28 4.60 1,637 116.2 105,9 1928-29 4.13 2,170 120.7 103,3 1929-30 , 4.82 2,383 120.2 121.4 1930-31 • 3,53 2,617 104.4 K)7,7 1931-32 . 2.82 1,990 85.5 108,3 1932-33 . 2.48 2,200 68.1 113.2 1933-34 . 2.64 2,767 75.5 123,0 1934-35 . 3.05 2,984 32.1 129,1 1935-36 2.92 2,670 91.0 109.1 1936-37 . 2.92 3,997 106,5 95.2 1937-38 3.07 2,681 103,3 107,1 1938-39 2.77 3,114 IDl.O 90,6 1939-40 , 3.27 , 2,763 109.6 88,7 1947-48 - 7,07 4,866 290.1 .60,3 1948-49 . 7.37 3,660 308.0 59,2 1949-50^/ L . 5.15 5,613 310.3 50, r a/ No. 2-g- can basis. Preliminary, subject to revision. Sources of data; Col. 1: Compiled from canner reports by Canners League of California and Northwest Canners Association, Prices are weighted average. f*o«b. prices received by canners for all grades and sizes of cans, on an unadvertised basis. Col, 2: Column 7, table 2, Col. 3: SiiDple average of the pack-year monthly indexes of national inccane, excluding agricultural income, 1935-1939 average equals 100^ Monthly income data compiled from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, Index for May 1950 estimated at a level of 314,7, the average of February-April 1950, Col, 4: For sources and method of construction see table 3, ir.i»> r*^ •'■*/ n ■ v.-- Y".- V'^'= ■■" " • ■ 'j- r^-^ •*! ■■ i • ■ , .,- ♦'•••■» ■■■< '-^^.l- J. "r - , ■■. . . ^ - » •■ • ■, -■. to: 5 I T' * >■ 'J Cl.1l,W . • r-tpb 'to .5§9tao8 5. TABLE 2 Pack, Carry-Over, Shipments, and Exports of Pacific Coast Canned. Bartlett Pears, 1926-27 to 19U9-$0 Year, June through May Pack Carry-over from previous ye sir Available for shipment Carry-over into following year Total shipments Exports s Domestic hipments 1 2 3 1+ ' 5 7 1,000 casesi/ 1926- 27 1927- 28 1928- 29 1929- 30 3,260 2,639 1|,116 U, 206 507 i;01 167 292 3,767 3,0U0 U,283 U,U98 i+Ol 167 292 952 3,366 2,873 3,991 3,51+6 1,1+09 1,236 1,821. 1,163 . 1,957 1,637 2,170 2,383 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 3U I93I4-35 U,153 3,635 3,117 li,377 5,505 952 893 870 U29 273 5,105 U,528 3,987 U,8o6 5,778 893 870 1+29 273 1,291 U,212 3,658 3,558 l+,533 i+,1+87 1,595 1,668 1,358 1,766 1,503 2,617 . 1,990 2,200 2,767 2,981+ 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1939- 1+0 l+,230 5,355 U,32l U,090 U,057 1,291 957 850 1,150 UOO • 5,521 6,312 5,171 5,21+0 U,i+57 957 850 1,150 iiOO 280 l+,56i+ 5,1+62 i+,021 l+,8l+0 U,177 1,89U . 1,1+65 1,31+0 . 1,726 1,1+09 . 2,670 3,997 2,681 3,111+ 2,768 19U7-U8 19li8-i;9 19U9-50 5,622 3,831 5,U59 200 726 761 5,822 U,557 6,220 ■ 726 761 1+1+8 5,096 3,796 5,772 230 136 159 i+,866 3,660 5,613 a/ No. 2^ can basis. Sources of data: Col. 1: Compiled from reports of Canners League of California and Northwest Canners Association, Cols. 2 and i+: Compiled from reports of Canners League of California and Northwest Canners Association. Carry-overs for June 1, 1937, 1938, 1939, and I9I+O were estimated from incomplete data. California and Pacific Northwest carry-overs for June 1, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, and 1930 were converted from actual cases. Also Pacific Northwest carry-over for June 1, 1932 was converted from actual cases. Cols. 3 and 5: Calculated. Col. 6: Compiled from United States Department of Commerce, Monthly Suiimiary of Foreign Commerce of the United States. Exports converted at 1+5 pounds per No, 2-| equivalent case. May 1950 exports estimated. Col, 7? Col. 5 minus col* 6 0" ■'^]!ii€^-1^'-d>^'^^^ ••J;' 'KJ . .., '!;- ■-...'IS-' "'.ii - v.. - ; ■ * . t • i f-^A ■■ I 1- ''H^fV ■i ■::]■'i^i-■ 1; . i ; . ' ! ... ( .,( I ,1;. TABLE 3 Construction of Index of Prices of Canned Fruits Competing With Canned Bartlett Pears Unadjusted Adjusted Prices Relatives of prices index of Index of index of Canned — — — Canned Canned prices of United States prices of "hViTmiir}! clingstone Canned Canned clingstone Canned Hawaiian competing nonagri cul- competing peaches apricots pineapples peaches apricots pineapple canned fruits tural income canned fruits 1 2 3 k 5 ' 6 7 8 9 dollars per case 1935-1939 = 100 3.66 3.85 4.70 142.2 137.3 130.6 137.2 115.3 119.0 1927-20 3. IT 3.97 4.20 123.2 141.6 116.7 123.1 116.2 105.9 192(3-29 3.22 3.67 4.40 125.1 130.9 122.2 124.7 120.7 103.3 1929-30 4.08 3.97 4.70 158.5 141.6 130.6 145.9 120.2 121.4 1930-31 2.88 3.32 4,00 111.9 118.4 111.1 112.4 104.4 107.7 1931-32 2.55 2.61^ 3.00 99.1 94.2 83.3 92.6 85.5 108.3 1932-33 1.97 2.23 3.10 76.5 79.5 86.1 80.5 68.1 118.2 1933-3^ 2.31 2.37 3.60 89.7 84.5 100.0 92.9 75.5 123.0 193'<-35 2.69 3.^7 3.60 104.5 123.8 100.0 105.2 82.1 128.1 1935-36 2.51 2.93 3.60 97.5 104.5 100.0 99.3 91.0 109.1 2.66 2.75 3.60 103.3 98.1 100.0 101.4 106.5 95.2 1937-38 2.96 3.02 3.80 115.0 107.7 105.6 110.6 103.3 107.1 1938-39 2.30 2.55 3.40 89.4 90.9 94.4 91.5 101.0 90.6 1939-1^0 2.77 3.60 94.8 98.8 100.0 97.2 109.6 88.7 19^7-U8 k.io 5.20 5.80 182.6 185.4 161.1 174.9 290.1 60.3 h.QS 6.50 188.8 162.3 180.6 182.4 308.0 59.2 191+9^ 3^9h 4.11 6.00 153.1 146.6 166.7 157.4 . . ■. . ... . 310.3 50.7 a/ Preliminary, subject to revision. Sources of data: Cols. 1 and 2: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are weighted average f.o.b. prices of all grades and sizes of cans. Canned clingstone peach prices are for Calif ornia; and^ canned Bartlett pear prices are for the Pacific Coast, except 1947-48 is for California. (Continued on next page.) ■<» X.. 1 ■ • . -. -J : '>'■<.•' - ■ - i'. S. '. ^ — • ..... ^ 1 ■: ... . - ^ • f. -1 ; /t..v • ! ■■ ,-. %i * ... \ .... ' '. ■'. I" • ' J S 3 1 : J .' 3 - ^; ■ **.'■.,■ - i • ■ . i i '■ i . : " ■■ ) 'i 'i ■' ■ . f .1. ■ • ■• -• i . y *" ' ■ " ; ■' <. r 1 ■ ■ . ^ 'r>.--. »"'"■"" J V 1 .3. ' > ...w-. > ,^ ^ • "V .-.,,.!5,... v.: Hi. 3 ■ ■ J • . - - ""l-* ' Table 3 continued. Col. 3: Prices are for No. 2-l/2 sliced fancy pineapple, Hawaiian, f.o.b. San Francisco from published quotations supplemented by trade information. Cols, k, 5 and 6: Prices given in cols. 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in per cent of their 1935-1939 averages-- canned clingstone peaches, $2.57^; canned apricots, $2.8oU; canned .|)ineapples, $3.60. Col. 7: Weighted combination of relatives in cols, k, 5, and 6 using the following weights--canned clingstone peaches, 8; canned apricots, 2; canned pineapples, 6. Col. 8: From table 1, col. 3- Col. 9: Col. 7 divided by col. 8. .TPJ6 2 coO^-jKncq' 6 TABIE h Actual and Estimated P.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Bartlett PSars, 1926-27 to 1949-50 " " Year, Difference Column 2 June column 1 as per through Actual Estimated minus cent oi ^lay price price column 2 column ] 1 2 3 4 dollars oer case per cent 1926-27 4,31 4,63 - ,32 - 7.4 1927-28 4.60 4.33 .27 , 5,9 1928-29 4,13 4.22 - .09 - 2,2 1929-30 4.82 4.73 .09 1.9 1930-31 3.53 5.50 ,03 . 0,8 1931-32 2,82 2.94 ■ - .12 r- 4,3 1932-33 2.48 2.35 .13 5.2 1933-34 2.64 2.61 .03 ■ 1.1 1934-35 ■ 3.05 - 2.95 .10 3,3 1935-36 2.92 2,98 • - .06 - 2.1 1936-37 ' 2.92 2.91 ,01 0.3 1937-38 3.07 5.42 - .35 - 11,4 1938-39 2.77 2.77 0 0 1939-40 3.27 3.09 .18 6,5 1947_48 ■ 7.07 • 6.35 .72 10.2 1948-49 7.37 7.20 .17 2,5 1949-50 5.15 5.73 - .58 - 11,3 S9urces of data: Col. 1: From table 1, col. 1. Col, 2; Estimated by equation (4) table 5. Col. 5: Col. 1 minus col. 2. Col. 4: Col. 5 as per cent of col* 1, ' ■•SI. ; '7 TABLE 5 Statistical Analyses of Factors Affecting Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Bartlett Pears, 1926-27 to 19^9-50 Equation number Multiple regression equations Adjusted coefficient of multiple c orrelat ion Dependent variable Constant term Independent variables and their net regression coefficients (figures in pareiatheses are t-ratios. and in brackets are. beta, coefficients) 1 Xl -20.289652 -0.«4-l 5078X2 + iU»yj^^J£!'fii---. ^iitif§B«r»iH3 :>ft,iiF^.^^|C^J^ Z--:^: y^^--^ iis^fti^^fij^r r^vi-^ ij- --i". -y.V^]^:' riib ^ ... J i r-^^--^J:-:^-"^ t 'V-.'. ^,.ir , r.-;' — - -•r-,r'>,3;.'i":.:-s^..~-X-'.r--....: '• ^ I'f-'v.r^.j;-! rvKj?A.v " r i^' ~ ■.-• ••-dl-