vision of Agricultural Sc 
 
 i e n c e s 
 
 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORN 
 
 TRENDS ~ 
 
 AND 
 
 UU I LOOK 
 
 Californ 
 
 COT 
 
 NDUSTRY 
 
 jH CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL 
 Experiment Station 
 
 CIRCULAR 495 
 
THE CALIFORNIA APRICOT INDUSTRY 
 
 has undergone important changes during the past 50 years. This circular 
 reviews the factors responsible for these changes and indicates the situation 
 in prospect. 
 
 HERE IS THE SITUATION 
 
 Acreage — expanded rapidly until 1926, then 
 declined by over half. The decrease was less 
 severe in the major producing areas and for 
 the principal varieties. 
 
 Yield— doubled since 1920-1929 to almost 5 
 tons per bearing acre. Yield varies widely 
 from year-to-year and among districts and 
 varieties. 
 
 Production — increased sharply during 1920- 
 1939 and then decreased by a quarter to an 
 average of 185,000 tons maintained since 
 1940. 
 
 Canning — has become the major outlet. The 
 quantity canned rose from a quarter of the 
 crop in 1915-1929 to two-thirds since 1955. 
 
 Drying — reached a peak of 168,000 tons in 
 the 1930's, then decreased to 46,000. Drying 
 declined from 68 to 25 per cent of sales. 
 
 Fresh Sales — increased gradually to almost 
 25,000 tons in 1944-1950, then declined 
 sharply to 11,000 tons in 1955-1959. Usually 
 half to two-thirds of these sales are made 
 within the state. 
 
 Exports — represented 35 to 40 per cent of 
 the prewar crop. But, with curtailed ship- 
 ments of canned and dried apricots after 
 the war, exports dropped to 10 per cent of 
 the average crop in 1945-1959. 
 
 Grower Prices — are highest on interstate 
 fresh shipments and lowest for cannery 
 sales. The average seems to be determined 
 chiefly by consumer purchasing power, and 
 to a lesser extent by annual production. 
 
 THIS IS THE OUTLOOK 
 
 New acreage coming into bearing in the 
 next few years will about offset tree re- 
 movals. Bearing acreage will become still 
 more concentrated in the major districts. 
 
 A further small rise, say of 10 per cent, 
 seems likely by 1965 — provided good cul- 
 tural practices, now used, are not aban- 
 doned. 
 
 Some increase is expected. Large annual 
 variations will continue, as in the past, be- 
 cause of fluctuations in yield. 
 
 Larger quantities will be canned. As much 
 as 75 per cent of the crop may go to canners 
 by the mid-1960's. 
 
 This outlet will become even less important 
 if canning expands as expected. Drying may 
 decline to 20 per cent of the crop. 
 
 The recent downward trend is not expected 
 to continue. However, a large increase also 
 seems unlikely. Possibly fresh sales will be 
 at 10,000-15,000 tons in the early 1%0's. 
 
 Exports are likely to continue at about pres- 
 ent level (far below prewar quantities), 
 especially for canned and dried apricots. 
 Fresh shipments may increase but not suffi- 
 ciently to affect the over-all picture greatly. 
 
 The outlook is for prices at or slightly 
 above recent averages — provided consumer 
 purchasing power continues to climb. Prices 
 should not be depressed unduly except in 
 years when bumper crops are produced. 
 
 THE AUTHOR: Jerry Foytik is Associate Professor of Agricultural Eco- 
 nomics and Associate Agricultural Economist in the Agricultural Experi- 
 ment Station, and on the Giannini Foundation, Davis. 
 
 JANUARY, 1961 
 
JERRY FOYTIK 
 
 CALIFORNIA 
 
 APRICOT INDUSTRY 
 
 TRENDS AND OUTLOOK 
 
 CONTENTS 
 
 The Industry 3 
 
 Acreage and Yield 7 
 
 Production and Utilization . . .13 
 
 Fresh Consumption 15 
 
 Processing Uses 21 
 
 Exports 24 
 
 Returns to Producers 28 
 
 JLhe apricot is established as one of Cali- 
 fornia's important specialty crops. An- 
 nual production in the state accounts for 
 90 per cent of the national total and 
 about a third of the world crop. Within 
 the state commercial acreage is confined 
 chiefly to two major varieties grown in 
 a few specialized producing areas. 
 
 Apricot production in California 
 started soon after Mission San Diego 
 was founded in 1769. Improved varie- 
 ties were not imported until the early 
 1850's and production was largely 
 limited to small fruit gardens until after 
 the overland railroad arrived in 1869. 
 
 California accounts for practically all 
 the apricots processed in the United 
 States. The percentage of the state's pro- 
 duction canned has doubled during the 
 past 30 years and that dried has de- 
 creased by a half, while the percentage 
 consumed fresh averaged almost 10 per 
 cent of the total. 
 
 Fresh sales are divided almost equally 
 between local marketings and out-of- 
 state shipments. Fresh apricots from 
 California are marketed early in the sea- 
 
 son before shipments of apricots from 
 other states and of other fruits become 
 heavy. Apricots constitute 15 per cent 
 of the fresh deciduous tree fruits shipped 
 from California during June when most 
 of the apricots are moved. 
 
 THE INDUSTRY 
 
 Apricots can be grown under a variety 
 of climatic, soil, and cultural conditions. 
 Commercial success, however, requires 
 that care be given to the selection of a 
 site. 
 
 Growing Conditions 
 
 Climate is probably the most impor- 
 tant factor limiting commercial produc- 
 tion. The early blooming habit of the 
 apricot and its chilling requirements (to 
 break the tree's winter rest) precludes 
 commercial production in most fruit- 
 growing regions of the nation. The best 
 climate for apricots is clear and dry 
 weather, with fairly cold winters and 
 only moderately high spring and sum- 
 mer temperatures before harvest. Con- 
 tinued cool, damp weather may cause 
 fruit brown rot. Extremely high summer 
 temperatures (of 100°-105°F or more) 
 during fruit ripening may cause pit-burn 
 and damage fruit quality. 
 
 Normal rainfall may provide enough 
 moisture to keep apricot trees alive and 
 to bear some fruit. Inadequate water, 
 however, results in weak growth, small 
 trees, and low yields. In California the 
 great bulk of the acreage is irrigated. 
 
 Apricots grow quite satisfactorily on 
 a wide range of soil types. Strong, vigor- 
 
 [3] 
 
ous growth of the tree, however, is more 
 readily attained on deep, fertile, well- 
 drained loam and clay-loam soils. 
 Lighter soils may require heavier appli- 
 cations of fertilizer and more frequent 
 irrigation for high yields. 
 
 Harvesting 
 
 The apricot picking season is short. 
 Usually it lasts about 15 to 20 days for 
 a given variety and includes two or three 
 pickings. The beginning of harvest is 
 influenced by the intended outlet for the 
 crop since fruit at different stages of ma- 
 turity is required for fresh marketing, 
 canning, and drying. 
 
 Normally the grower knows the prob- 
 able outlet for his fruit in advance of 
 harvest. Although a portion of the crop 
 might go to each of the three outlets, the 
 grower ordinarily concentrates on only 
 one outlet. He may, however, use a sec- 
 ond outlet for the portion of his fruit 
 gathered on the last picking. 
 
 Apricots to be shipped fresh are picked 
 
 at the earliest stage of maturity. For 
 eastern shipment the fruit is harvested 
 when it shows some yellow color but 
 while it is still hard and firm. Somewhat 
 more mature apricots are used for local 
 fresh sales since less ripening will occur 
 during shipment to market. 
 
 Cannery apricots are picked a little 
 later. The fruit should be firm-ripe and 
 have developed a full color, but it should 
 not yet be soft. 
 
 For drying, harvest is delayed until 
 further ripening on the trees would make 
 the fruit too soft for satisfactory han- 
 dling. Fully mature apricots are pre- 
 ferred for two reasons: a higher dry-out 
 ratio results because the fruit has a 
 higher sugar content, and a better grade 
 of dried product results because of the 
 smaller proportion of poorly colored 
 halves. 
 
 Producing Areas 
 
 Growing conditions are particularly 
 favorable in the coastal valleys, especi- 
 
 APRICOT PRODUCTION DISTRICTS 
 
 As used in this circular, production districts are defined to include the 
 following counties listed in descending order of present acreage: 
 
 Santa Clara District includes five counties southeast of San Francisco: 
 Santa Clara, San Benito, Alameda, Monterey, and Santa Cruz. Half of 
 the state's apricot acreage is located in these five counties. 
 
 West Central Valley District includes three counties near the river's 
 mouth: Solano, Contra Costa and Yolo. These counties represent almost 
 one quarter of the total acreage. 
 
 Stockton District is composed of Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties 
 in the northern part of San Joaquin Valley. It constitutes 14 per cent of 
 the acreage. 
 
 South San Joaquin District includes six counties in the southern part 
 of the valley: Fresno, Kings, Merced, Kern, Tulare and Madera. About 
 6 per cent of the acreage is located in this area. 
 
 Other Areas, representing 8 per cent of the acreage, include all other 
 42 counties of the state. Eighteen counties have no commercial acreage, 
 19 have limited plantings of less than 80 acres each, and the remaining 
 five have acreage ranging from 130 to 1,900. 
 
 [4] 
 
ally those south of San Francisco Bay, During the second half of the nine- 
 and the adjacent counties of the Central teenth century several varieties of apri- 
 Valley. Temperatures are suitable. Irri- cots were grown in many areas of the 
 gation is possible and not too expensive, state — usually in small home orchards. 
 Insect and disease control is feasible. As production became more commercial- 
 Conditions in other fruit-growing regions ized, varieties less desirable for commer- 
 are less favorable for profitable produc- cial sales were replaced and, as a result, 
 tion. These relative advantages are re- areas for growing apricots became more 
 fleeted in former and recent plantings, sharply defined. 
 
 CHARACTERISTICS OF APRICOT VARIETIES 
 
 Only a few varieties are of commercial importance in California. Royal 
 and Tilton account for 97 per cent of the acreage. The remainder is 
 planted to Moorpark and Derby. 
 
 Royal is a firm, well-colored, highly flavored apricot of medium size. 
 It is used widely for canning and drying and is also shipped fresh. 
 Blenheim is so similar in fruit characteristics to Royal that the two 
 varieties often are considered as one. Official statistics compiled by the 
 state make no differentiation. In this circular the term Royal is used to 
 include the Blenheim variety. Royal and Blenheim were imported to 
 California a century ago from France and England, respectively. 
 
 Tilton is lighter in color and flatter in shape than Royal, blooms and 
 ripens somewhat later, and has less tendency to "pit-burn." This variety 
 is also used in all three outlets but less satisfactorily than Royal. The 
 canned fruit is blander; the dried product is less attractive in color and 
 has a lower dry-out ratio; the fresh fruit, though larger in size, is of 
 lower quality. The trees tend more to alternate bearing than Royal but 
 are very prolific in "on" years. The Tilton was originated in Kings 
 County by J. E. Tilton in 1885. 
 
 Moorpark is a large apricot of excellent fresh-eating quality, even 
 though the fruit usually ripens unevenly and becomes very soft when 
 fully ripe. The fruit matures and is marketed later than Royal and Tilton. 
 Moorpark is dried but the dried product is variable in color. It is not 
 considered suitable for canning. The trees are irregular and shy bearers. 
 Hemskirke is a variety of very similar character and use. It is grouped 
 together with Moorpark in this circular to conform with industry 
 practice. 
 
 Derby closely resembles Royal in tree growth and fruit appearance. 
 However, it tends to set somewhat lighter crops, to ripen less evenly, 
 and to mature earlier. It is especially well suited for shipment to eastern 
 markets but is not desired for processing because the stone tends to cling 
 to the fruit flesh. This variety, first planted near Winters, California, in 
 about 1895, is a good one in early shipping districts because it extends 
 the picking season, especially on the early side. Because of its close simi- 
 larity to Royal, Derby may be shipped under that name. 
 
 [5] 
 
Now commercial acreage is concen- 
 trated in a few counties. By adding 
 nearby counties with smaller acreage to 
 these production centers we cover the 
 territory included in the principal apri- 
 cot-producing districts listed in the box. 
 This segregation is arbitrary but con- 
 venient in our discussion of the major 
 areas of production. These four major 
 districts represent 92 per cent of the 
 present total acreage: 48 per cent in 
 Santa Clara District, 24 per cent in West 
 Central Valley District, 14 per cent in 
 Stockton District, and 6 per cent in South 
 San Joaquin District. 
 
 Varieties Planted 
 
 Numerous apricot varieties have been 
 grown in California. They can still be 
 produced successfully, though not neces- 
 sarily profitably, in several areas of the 
 state. By about 1900 the list of acceptable 
 varieties was greatly reduced. Since 1920 
 commercial production has been limited 
 chiefly to two varieties. About 78 per 
 cent of the present acreage is planted to 
 Royal and 19 per cent to Tilton. The re- 
 mainder (3 per cent) is equally divided 
 between Moorpark and minor varieties. 
 Most of the small acreage in minor vari- 
 eties is in early-maturing varieties, espe- 
 
 cially Derby, which are suitable to early 
 districts and can be shipped while the 
 prices at consumer markets are still 
 favorable. 
 
 Apricot varieties differ, sometimes 
 markedly, in appearance, eating quality, 
 suitability for processing, maturity dates, 
 and other respects. These are summarized 
 on page 5 for the four varieties. 
 
 California's Production 
 
 Apricots are grown extensively in 
 California, Washington and Utah. The 
 small production grown in other states is 
 limited chiefly to home gardens and for 
 supplying local markets. California ac- 
 counts for about 92 per cent of the pro- 
 duction in the three major states. 
 
 The crops from the three major states 
 are utilized in significantly different 
 ways. In California over 90 per cent is 
 processed compared to 20 to 25 per cent 
 in Washington and Utah. The state ac- 
 counts for all the apricots dried in the 
 United States, about 98 per cent of those 
 canned and frozen, and 55 to 60 per cent 
 of fresh sales. Because of early maturity: 
 the bulk of California fresh apricots are 
 marketed before those from Washington 
 and Utah. 
 
 California's importance on the world 
 
 U. S. Apricot Production and Utilization, 1 950-1 959 Average 
 
 Use 
 
 California 
 
 Washington 
 
 Utah 
 
 Total 
 
 California 
 
 Fresh sales 
 
 1,000 fresh tons 
 
 Per cent 
 
 14.8 
 
 113.2 
 
 52.2 
 
 7.5 
 2.5 
 
 
 10.0 
 
 .4 
 1.0 
 
 3.3 
 1.3 
 
 
 25.6 
 
 117.0 
 
 52.2 
 
 58.0 
 
 96.7 
 
 100.0 
 
 Canned and frozen 
 
 Dried 
 
 Total sales 
 
 180.2 
 1.7 
 
 
 4.6 
 .5 
 .1 
 
 194.8 
 2.6 
 
 1.1 
 
 92.5 
 
 65.8 
 
 
 
 Farm use 
 
 Not utilized 
 
 Total crop 
 
 181.9 
 
 11.4 
 
 5.2 
 
 198.5 
 
 91.6 
 
 Percent processed 
 
 90.9 
 
 22.3 
 
 24.8 
 
 85.3 
 
 
 
 
 6] 
 
Apricot Production in Specific 
 
 »d Countries, 
 
 1945-1958 
 
 
 Country 
 
 1945-49 
 
 1950-54 
 
 1955-58 
 
 
 1,000 fresh tons 
 
 California 
 
 Other U.S. 
 
 204 
 31 
 
 73 
 
 63 
 
 35 
 
 158 
 
 183 
 13 
 
 70 
 
 84 
 
 44 
 
 204 
 
 174 
 20 
 
 Spain 
 
 Iran 
 
 France 
 
 Other countries * 
 
 69 
 
 67 
 
 52 
 
 181 
 
 
 
 Total 
 
 Per cent in California 
 
 Per cent in U.S 
 
 564 
 
 36.1 
 41.6 
 
 598 
 
 30.6 
 32.8 
 
 563 
 
 30.9 
 
 34.4 
 
 
 
 * Includes all noncommunist countries with significant commercial production. Individually each has 
 smaller average crops than any of those shown. 
 
 scene is indicated by the data summar- 
 ized in the table above, which represent 
 the great bulk of the world total apricot 
 production. During the past 15 years the 
 state produced about a third; Spain, 
 France and Iran a third; and the rest of 
 the world another third. 
 
 ACREAGE AND YIELD 
 
 Both determinants of production, 
 acreage and yield, have changed impor- 
 tantly during past decades. Both will un- 
 dergo further changes. Major shifts for 
 the past indicate changes likely in the 
 future. 
 
 Acreage Trends 
 
 In 1909 California had 2,992,000 apri- 
 cot trees. By 1919 the total increased to 
 4,932,000 (including 3,683,000 of bear- 
 ing age), on 67,600 acres. Acreage in- 
 creased to 97,300 in 1926, and then de- 
 creased, more or less steadily, to an 
 average of 41,900 in 1955-59— which is 
 43 per cent of the 1926 peak and about 
 equal to the 1909 acreage. 
 
 Bearing acreage expanded rapidly 
 
 during the first quarter of the twentieth 
 century, reaching a peak of 83,000 in 
 1928. It decreased to 73,100 in 1939, 
 49,300 in 1949, and 36,500 in 1959. In 
 other words, the average annual decrease 
 was about 1,500 acres during the past 
 31 years. 
 
 Nonbearing acreage remained high 
 (relative to the total), of course, while 
 the apricot industry was expanding. It 
 reached a peak of 30,500 in 1924, four 
 years prior to the peak in bearing acre- 
 age, and then declined sharply to 7,300 
 in 1930-1934 and only 1,450 in 1950- 
 54. Recent plantings brought nonbear- 
 ing acreage to 6,100 in 1959. 
 
 The large reduction in acreage over 
 the past three decades raises a question: 
 Which acreages were eliminated from 
 production and what new plantings were 
 made? Shifts in the geographic, varietal, 
 and age composition of California's apri- 
 cot acreage are discussed in the next 
 three sections. 
 
 District Pattern 
 
 The geographic location of apricot 
 acreage has shifted. For the period 1921- 
 59 as a whole, bearing acreage declined 
 
 [7] 
 
one-third. It increased sharply in two 
 areas — 75 and 55 per cent, respectively, 
 in the West Central Valley and Stockton 
 districts — and decreased 5 per cent in 
 the Santa Clara District and 85 per cent 
 for the remainder of the state. (See figure 
 1 below) . 
 
 As a result, the relative importance 
 of the districts changed drastically. The 
 proportion of the state's bearing acreage 
 in two districts increased fairly steadily 
 since 1921 — from 37 to 54 per cent for 
 Santa Clara District and from 9 to 24 per 
 cent for West Central Valley District. 
 The Stockton District increased, in rela- 
 tive importance, at an irregular rate — 
 from 4 per cent in 1921 to about 9 per 
 cent for the period 1931-59. For the bal- 
 ance of the state bearing acreage de- 
 
 creased from 50 per cent of the total in 
 1921 to 12 per cent in 1959. 
 
 Commercial acreage in each district 
 is concentrated within a few counties. 
 About 62 per cent of the Santa Clara Dis- 
 trict acreage is in Santa Clara County 
 and 20 per cent in San Benito. The rela- 
 tive importance of the other three coun- 
 ties is 18 per cent compared to 31 per 
 cent during the mid 1920's. 
 
 The county distribution of acreage in 
 West Central Valley District is: 42 per 
 cent in Solano, 36 per cent in Contra 
 Costa, and 22 per cent in Yolo. For 
 Stockton District 63 per cent of the acre- 
 age is in Stanislaus and 37 per cent in 
 San Joaquin. 
 
 Merced and Fresno represent 63 per 
 cent of the South San Joaquin acreage, 
 
 100 
 
 75 
 
 50 
 
 25 
 
 State Total 
 
 Santa Clara Dist. 
 
 -,- West Central Dist. 
 
 60 
 
 40 
 
 20 
 
 CO 
 
 So. San Jooa^ Dis|. __ _ 
 
 Stockton District 
 
 1921 1926 1931 1936 
 
 1941 
 
 1946 1951 
 
 1956 1959 
 
 flg. 1. distribution of apricot bearing acreage, by major districts, 
 
 1921 to 1959. 
 
 [3] 
 
Bearing Acreage of California Apricots, 1936 and 1956 
 
 District 
 
 Royal 
 
 Tilton 
 
 Other 
 
 All varieties 
 
 1936 
 
 1956 
 
 1936 
 
 1956 
 
 1936 
 
 1956 
 
 1936 
 
 1956 
 
 Santa Clara 
 
 30,820 
 9,480 
 1,580 
 4,770 
 
 13,240 
 
 59,890 
 
 21,620 
 
 7,410 
 
 1,140 
 
 810 
 
 3,300 
 
 34,280 
 
 200 
 1,720 
 4,190 
 5,170 
 1,380 
 
 12,660 
 
 140 
 1,400 
 3,090 
 1,040 
 
 330 
 
 6,000 
 
 1,880 
 530 
 1,270 
 1,030 
 1,350 
 
 6,060 
 
 690 
 
 530 
 
 50 
 
 90 
 
 230 
 
 1,590 
 
 32,900 
 11,730 
 7,040 
 10,970 
 15,970 
 
 78,610 
 
 22,450 
 
 West Central Valley. . 
 
 Stockton 
 
 South San Joaquin . . . 
 Other 
 
 State Total 
 
 9,340 
 4,280 
 1,940 
 3,860 
 
 41,870 
 
 
 
 Kings 23 per cent, and the other three 
 counties 14 per cent. Three-quarters of 
 the acreage in "other areas" is in two 
 southern counties: Riverside and Ven- 
 tura. 
 
 Varietal Composition 
 
 Apricot acreage also changed in vari- 
 etal composition. Between 1936 and 
 1959, bearing acreage declined by over 
 a half: 50 per cent for Royal, 59 per 
 cent for Tilton, and 82 per cent for other 
 varieties. 
 
 This shift away from minor varieties 
 was accomplished chiefly by removing 
 trees of unwanted varieties and planting 
 new orchards of desired varieties. A va- 
 riety is "unwanted" or "desired" for 
 several reasons, technological and eco- 
 nomic. For example, each variety pro- 
 duces fruit of a typical size, firmness, 
 flavor, and eating quality. 
 
 However, the consumer's willingness 
 to pay more for one variety than for 
 another, because of differences in such 
 characteristics, is an economic factor. 
 Each variety typically produces a certain 
 tonnage per acre depending on, among 
 other things, tree age and climatic con- 
 ditions. Its yield is changed by changing 
 the amount and type of cultural care 
 given the trees. Both economic and tech- 
 nical factors should be considered by 
 the grower in determining the amount of 
 
 [ 
 
 money to be expended for such purposes. 
 These illustrations indicate that numer- 
 ous factors should be considered when 
 decisions are made as to which varieties 
 are to be removed or planted. The net 
 effect of the expected influences of these 
 economic and technological factors de- 
 termines whether a given variety is un- 
 wanted or desired at a particular time. 
 
 As a result, the relative importance 
 of the varieties changed since 1936. 
 Royal increased from 76 to 83 per cent 
 of the total while Tilton decreased from 
 16 to 14 per cent and other varieties de- 
 clined from 8 to 3 per cent. A detailed 
 comparison on a district basis, for the 
 period 1936-56, is summarized in the 
 table above. 
 
 Age Distribution 
 
 The most noticeable change in the age 
 composition of apricot trees over the 
 years is the fluctuation in nonbearing 
 acreage. The proportion of acreage con- 
 sisting of nonbearing trees continued 
 high for many years and then declined 
 sharply. It averaged 30 per cent in 1920- 
 24, dropped to 8 per cent in 1930-34, 
 and decreased further to 6 and 3 per cent 
 in 1940-44 and 1950-54. Subsequent 
 plantings raised the figure to 14 per cent 
 in 1960. 
 
 In 1936 just over half (51 per cent) 
 the bearing acreage consisted of trees 17 
 
 9] 
 
years or older. The proportion of such 
 older trees increased to 80 per cent by 
 the late 1940's and 85 per cent since 
 1955. 
 
 The age distribution in 1936 and in 
 1956 is compared on a district basis in 
 figure 2 below. Important differences 
 among districts are: 
 
 H Nonbearing acreage increased eight- 
 fold in Stockton District and decreased 
 by 40 per cent for the remainder of the 
 state. This district's proportion of the 
 state total increased from 7 to 51 per 
 cent since 1936. 
 
 fl The proportion of acreage consisting 
 of young bearing trees (16 years or less 
 since planting) declined from 26 to 12 
 percent in the Santa Clara District and 
 from 60 to 16 per cent for the remainder 
 of the state. 
 
 || Acreage of older bearing trees located 
 in West Central Valley and Stockton 
 
 Districts increased from 15 to 28 per 
 cent of the state total, continued at about 
 58 per cent of Santa Clara District, and 
 declined from 27 to 14 per cent for other 
 areas. 
 
 Yield Changes 
 
 Weather conditions during the bloom- 
 ing, growing, and harvest season largely 
 determine the yield for a particular year. 
 Other forces guide its long-run move- 
 ment. Shifts in geographic, varietal, and 
 age composition of the bearing acreage 
 have an important effect. Cultural prac- 
 tices alter yield not only for the current 
 season but over the life of the tree. 
 
 Figure 3 shows that yield varies sub- 
 stantially from year to year. These annual 
 fluctuations averaged 1.75 tons since 
 1940, or about 46 per cent of the average 
 yield (of 3.8 tons per bearing acre) for 
 the period. The year-to-year change was 
 2.4 to 3.7 tons in six of the past 20 years, 
 
 30 
 
 20 
 
 CO 
 
 LU 
 Qi 
 U 
 < 
 
 o 10 
 
 o 
 
 o 
 
 Santa Clara 
 District 
 
 I I Nonbearing Trees 
 
 j>QOO\J Young Bearing Trees 
 [j Old Bearing Trees 
 
 Other 
 Counties 
 
 West 
 Central 
 District 
 
 Stockton 
 District 
 
 ;~£ 
 
 1936 1956 1936 1956 1936 1956 1936 1956 
 
 Fie;. 2. ace classification of apricot acreage by major districts. 
 
 1936 and 1956. 
 
 [10] 
 
1 
 
 Annual 
 
 1940-59 
 
 1 
 
 1 
 
 Bearing 1 
 
 
 
 
 - 
 
 **" — r 
 
 1 / I V. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 cV— V 
 
 
 
 / \ 
 
 
 
 r\_ _ \ 
 
 \7, 
 
 1 1 1 1,1 
 
 1920-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 
 
 Fig. 3. production, bearing acreage, and yield of California apricots, 
 
 1920 to 1959. 
 
 1.1 to 2.1 tons in nine years, and below 
 1.0 tons in only five. 
 
 Such wide variations complicate the 
 problem of marketing apricots. They re- 
 sult in corresponding annual fluctuations 
 in production and hence, to a consider- 
 able extent, in quantities available for 
 processing since fresh shipments vary 
 from one season to the next by only half 
 as much, on a relative basis, as do sales 
 to processors. (During the past 20 years 
 annual fluctuations averaged 25 per cent 
 of average fresh sales and 54 per cent 
 of average processing sales.) 
 
 Yield varied about a level of 2.4 tons 
 per bearing acre during 1920-29. It in- 
 creased, more or less steadily, thereafter 
 to an average of 4.7 tons in 1953-59. 
 
 Comparative Yields 
 
 Over the years yield in California has 
 been about one-third lower for apricots 
 than for other deciduous tree fruits and 
 for grapes. Fruits, in general, increased 
 substantially during the past quarter 
 century. At present, yields are 92 per 
 cent above the 1920-34 acerage for 
 apricots compared to increases of 115 
 per cent for other deciduous tree fruits 
 and 75 per cent for grapes. Yields since 
 1920 are compared in the table below. 
 
 A comparison of apricot yields for dif- 
 ferent varieties and producing areas is 
 not possible because production data are 
 not published in a form which permits 
 making such comparisons. 
 
 
 California 
 
 Yields for Apricots and Other Fruits 
 
 
 Years 
 
 Apricots 
 
 Other decidu- 
 ous tree fruits 
 
 Grapes 
 
 1920-34 
 
 Tons per bearing acre 
 
 2.5 
 3.4 
 2.7 
 3.5 
 
 4.2 
 4.8 
 
 3.3 
 
 4.2 
 4.5 
 5.9 
 6.3 
 7.2 
 
 3.8 
 4.5 
 4.8 
 5.6 
 5.7 
 6.7 
 
 1935-39 
 
 1940-44 
 
 1945-49 
 
 1950-54 
 
 1955-59 
 
 
 11] 
 
Acreage Projections 
 
 It is difficult to estimate bearing acre- 
 age and yield very far into the future. 
 For the period immediately ahead, how- 
 ever, a reasonably accurate prediction 
 can be made. Our guides are recent 
 plantings still to come into bearing and 
 probable removal of older or diseased 
 and weakened trees. 
 
 The top table below shows acreage 
 shifted to bearing and acreage removed 
 from production for the period since 
 1919. An average of about 11,400 acres 
 was removed from production each five 
 
 years. This amounts to 17.7 per cent of 
 the bearing acreage in existence at the 
 beginning of each period. If this percent- 
 age rate is continued, about 6,470 acres 
 will be removed. Since 6,110 of presently 
 nonbearing trees will begin to bear, there 
 will be a net decrease of 360 hearing 
 acres during 1959-64. 
 
 Actually, of course, trees may be re- 
 moved at a different rate. If it is at the 
 average rate (14.7 per cent) prevailing 
 since 1954, then bearing acreage will in- 
 crease 740 acres. 
 
 The age distribution data given in the 
 bottom table below indicates that a 
 
 Changes in Bearing Acreage of California Apricots 
 
 Period 
 
 Beginning 
 of period 
 
 Addition* 
 
 Apparent removal 
 
 End of 
 period 
 
 acresf 
 
 per centt 
 
 1919-24 
 
 49,200 
 65,180 
 82,580 
 77,610 
 73,120 
 66,040 
 49,840 
 41,400 
 36,540 
 
 18,400 
 30,540 
 10,760 
 5,690 
 5,820 
 3,570 
 2,470 
 1,210 
 6,110 
 
 9,397 
 
 2,420 
 13,140 
 15,730 
 10,180 
 12,900 
 19,770 
 10,910 
 
 6,070 
 
 11,390 
 
 4.9 
 20.2 
 19.0 
 13.1 
 17.6 
 29.9 
 21.9 
 14.7 
 
 17.7 
 
 65,180 
 82,580 
 77,610 
 73,120 
 66,040 
 49,840 
 41,400 
 36,540 
 
 1924-29 
 
 1929-34 
 
 1934-39 
 
 1939-44 
 
 1944-49 
 
 1949-54 
 
 1954-59 
 
 1959-64 . 
 
 5-year average 
 
 
 * Trees of nonbearing age at beginning of five-year period. 
 
 t Difference between beginning bearing acreage plus "addition" (i.e., new bearing acreage) and ending 
 bearing acreage. 
 
 t Per cent of beginning bearing acreage. 
 
 
 Age Distribution of California 
 
 Apricot Bearing Acreage 
 
 
 Tree age 
 
 1943 
 
 1948 
 
 1953 
 
 1958 
 
 5-8 
 
 9-13 
 
 14-18 
 
 19-23 
 
 24 and over 
 
 ::::::::::::::::f 
 
 i 
 
 Per cent of bearing acreage 
 
 7.2 
 
 6.8 
 
 16.7 
 
 69.3 
 
 4.7 
 
 8.4 
 
 7.1 
 
 f 16.3 
 
 \ 63.5 
 
 5.1 
 
 6.9 
 10.0 
 
 7.9 \ 
 70.1 / 
 
 4.9 
 5.8 
 
 7.4 
 
 81.9 
 
 
 [12] 
 
larger proportion of bearing acreage 
 consisted of trees older than 18 years in 
 1958 than in 1943, 1948 and 1953. This 
 suggests that removals probably will not 
 be lighter than in recent years. 
 
 Of course, we don't know how many 
 acres will be removed from production. 
 The above information, however, sug- 
 gests that new acreage coming into bear- 
 ing during the early 1960's will just 
 about offset removals. At least, it does 
 not appear likely that there will be either 
 a large increase or a large decrease. 
 
 Yield Projections 
 
 The upward trend in average yield 
 during the past 25 to 30 years is due to 
 several factors. Changes in the geo- 
 graphic and varietal composition of 
 California's apricot acreage, such as 
 have taken place, generally represent 
 shifts to more productive areas and to 
 more desirable varieties. This tendency 
 may continue on a long-term basis. But 
 for the immediate future more produc- 
 tive varieties are not in sight and recent 
 plantings have not gone into geographi- 
 cal favored areas. 
 
 Better cultural practices introduced 
 over the years also serve to raise the 
 average yield. They will continue to be 
 used, and even improved further, unless 
 prices become so depressed as to make 
 such expenditures excessive. Faced with 
 a greater price-cost squeeze, growers are 
 likely to try to lower their production 
 costs by cutting corners on cultural care 
 given to orchards. But even if this should 
 happen, the better care that trees have 
 already received will have a beneficial 
 effect, though decreasingly so, on yields 
 for the immediate future. 
 
 In view of these considerations a small 
 increase in yield (of some 10 per cent 
 to an average slightly above 5.0 tons per 
 bearing acre) appears likely for the early 
 1960's. It could go even higher. But a 
 sharp increase above the present level is 
 not expected. 
 
 As indicated above the yield for apri- 
 
 cots varies greatly from year-to-year be- 
 cause of the alternate-bearing tendency 
 of the apricot and for other reasons. Pre- 
 sumably growers will endeavor to 
 modify cultural practices, insofar as pos- 
 sible, to dampen this annual variation 
 in yield. It is expected, however, that for 
 the years immediately ahead yield fluctu- 
 ations will continue at about the present 
 magnitude. 
 
 PRODUCTION AND 
 UTILIZATION 
 
 Changes in production are determined 
 by changes in acreage and yield. Our 
 production estimates for the years ahead 
 are based upon the forecasts of bearing 
 acreage and yield discussed above. 
 
 Production Trends 
 
 The average apricot crop doubled dur- 
 ing the quarter century from 1910-19 
 to 1935-39 and then declined by a quar- 
 ter to a level of 185,000 tons maintained 
 over the past 20 years. Until about 1930 
 the production increase was due pri- 
 marily to a rapid acreage expansion, as 
 shown in figure 3 on page 11. There- 
 after acreage declined sharply and yield 
 increased substantially. Since 1940 these 
 opposite movements in the two determi- 
 nants have just about offset each other 
 so that production has not changed much 
 except for changes from one season to 
 the next. 
 
 Annual fluctuations in production 
 have been quite large because of con- 
 siderable variations in yield. During the 
 past 20 years these short-run changes in 
 production amounted to 95,000 tons, or 
 about 50 per cent of the average crop of 
 187,000 tons. 
 
 Production changed from one year to 
 the next by 135,000 to 245,000 tons in 
 five years since 1939, by 65,000 to 125,- 
 000 tons in eight years, and by less than 
 55,000 tons in seven years. 
 
 [13] 
 

 Production and Utilization of California Apricots, 1910- 
 
 -1959 
 
 
 
 Produc- 
 tion 
 total* 
 
 Quantities used for: 
 
 Five-year 
 average 
 
 All sales 
 
 Fresh marketings 
 
 Drying 
 
 Canning 
 
 
 
 Total 
 
 Out-of- 
 state 
 
 Intra- 
 state 
 
 Freezing 
 
 
 Tons, fresh weight 
 
 1910-14 . . . 
 
 113,800 
 
 112,500 
 
 8,640 
 
 3,020 
 
 5,620 
 
 85,020 
 
 18,840 
 
 
 
 1915-19. . . 
 
 134,800 
 
 133,440 
 
 10,560 
 
 4,740 
 
 5,820 
 
 83,040 
 
 39,840 
 
 
 
 1920-24 . . . 
 
 141,800 
 
 140,280 
 
 11,440 
 
 5,540 
 
 5,900 
 
 91,860 
 
 36,980 
 
 
 
 1925-29 . . . 
 
 182,600 
 
 180,900 
 
 12,300 
 
 4,760 
 
 7,540 
 
 116,640 
 
 51,960 
 
 
 
 1930-34 . . . 
 
 228,200 
 
 221,020 
 
 18,620 
 
 8,580 
 
 10,040 
 
 166,080 
 
 36,320 
 
 
 
 1935-39 . . 
 
 250,600 
 
 247,300 
 
 18,040 
 
 6,440 
 
 11,600 
 
 170,260 
 
 59,000 
 
 
 
 1940-44. . . 
 
 181,800 
 
 179,080 
 
 19,480 
 
 6,940 
 
 12,540 
 
 91,760 
 
 63,360 
 
 4,480 
 
 1945-49.. . 
 
 203,600 
 
 195,700 
 
 22,240 
 
 10,100 
 
 12,140 
 
 74,460 
 
 89,620 
 
 9,380 
 
 1950-54 . . . 
 
 182,600 
 
 180,900 
 
 18,780 
 
 8,720 
 
 10,060 
 
 57,880 
 
 101,540 
 
 2,700 
 
 1955-59 . . . 
 
 181,200 
 
 179,500 
 
 10,900 
 
 4,860 
 
 6,040 
 
 46,500 
 
 119,100 
 
 3,000 
 
 * Difference between total production and all sales consists of small quantities used directly by the farm 
 household (averaging 1,460 tons per year until 1929 and 1,750 tons thereafter) and quantities not utilized for 
 the period since 1930. 
 
 Production Projections 
 
 From the information now available 
 we conclude that bearing acreage will 
 not change much in the next few years 
 while average yield is likely to increase 
 moderately. Thus, normal crops for the 
 early 1960's should be above the average 
 (182,000 tons) for the 1950's but pro- 
 
 duction is not expected to be more than 
 5 to 10 per cent above the current aver- 
 age. The projection assumes: 
 
 II Good cultural practices will continue 
 in the major producing areas, even if 
 prices decline. 
 
 fl Tree removal will be at or near the rate 
 prevailing since 1950. 
 
 1910-14 1915-19 1920-24 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 
 
 Fig. 4. disposition of apricot sales, 1910 to 1959. 
 [ 14 I 
 
 1955-59 
 
Crop Utilization 
 
 Only negligible quantities were not 
 utilized prior to 1930 and in most sea- 
 sons thereafter. Such quantities exceeded 
 4 per cent of the crop during only three 
 seasons: 1930, 1932, and 1948. Smaller 
 quantities were left unharvested in four 
 other seasons. The table on page 14 sum- 
 marizes data on utilization for the past 
 50 years. 
 
 Until the late 1930's the utilization 
 pattern remained fairly stable. About 68 
 per cent of the sales were dried, 24 per 
 cent were canned, and 8 per cent were 
 shipped fresh. 
 
 Figure 4 on page 14 indicates that 
 the relative importance of drying and 
 canning was reversed after 1940. Quan- 
 tities dried declined rapidly to 26 per 
 cent of total sales in 1955-59 while can- 
 ning rose to 66 per cent. This means that 
 during the past 20 years (when produc- 
 tion continued at the same average level) 
 drying decreased from 170,000 tons in 
 1935-39 to 46,500 tons in 1955-59, while 
 canning increased from 59,000 to 
 119,000 tons. 
 
 Quantities frozen were appreciable 
 only during the war period, especially 
 1944^46 when an average of over 20,000 
 tons entered this outlet. They averaged 
 only 2,000 tons in 1947-54 and 3,000 in 
 1955^59. 
 
 Fresh shipments decreased sharply. 
 Such sales averaged only 10,900 tons 
 (6.1 per cent of all sales) in 1955-59 
 compared to 19,400 tons (or 9.5 per 
 cent) for the 25-year period 1930-54 
 and a peak of 22,200 tons (11.4 per 
 cent) in 1945-49. 
 
 Some further changes in the utiliza- 
 tion pattern for apricots appear likely 
 for the next few years. Canning probably 
 will expand to at least 70 per cent of all 
 sales, compared to 40 per cent in 1940- 
 49 and 61 per cent in 1951-59. It is ex- 
 pected that the freezing outlet will con- 
 tinue to take about 3,000 tons per year. 
 Fresh shipments are not likely to decline 
 further, but a sharp increase appears un- 
 
 likely. If these changes occur, as seems 
 probable, the use of apricots for drying 
 will decrease to about 40,000 tons, or 20 
 per cent of an average crop. 
 
 FRESH CONSUMPTION 
 
 For the past several decades about 
 one-tenth of the California apricot crop 
 has been marketed fresh. Somewhat over 
 half of this quantity went to local mar- 
 kets. The following sections briefly de- 
 scribe some of the methods used in han- 
 dling apricots for fresh shipments and 
 discuss the source and destination of 
 these sales, particularly auction market- 
 ings, the main outlet for out-of-state fresh 
 shipments. 
 
 Preparation for Market 
 
 Apricots intended for fresh use usu- 
 ally are thinned more severely than those 
 to be processed, to get a larger propor- 
 tion of the larger sizes which sell at 
 premium prices. These apricots are har- 
 vested at an earlier stage of maturity, 
 even though the fruit has not yet reached 
 its best flavor, because the firmer, i.e., 
 "greener," apricots hold up better dur- 
 ing transportation and numerous rehan- 
 dlings. 
 
 Ranch packing has been largely re- 
 placed by central packing houses, which 
 are equipped to handle and cool the fruit 
 rapidly. These plants receive the apricots 
 from various producers, pack them, as- 
 semble the cars, and make sales. 
 
 For local sales apricots generally are 
 packed loose in a variety of containers. 
 The fruit may be shipped without a lid 
 on the container. 
 
 Practically all apricots shipped from 
 California are packed in lugs with ap- 
 proximate inside dimensions of 4% x 
 12% x 16% inches. Usually the fruit is 
 "face and fill" packed. For this method of 
 packing the lug is made with the top in 
 place and the bottom open. The top layer 
 
 [15] 
 
or two of fruit is packed in a regular ar- 
 rangement before the remainder of the 
 lug is loose filled and the bottom is nailed 
 on. In the face layers the fruit is placed 
 in a square pattern for the square pack 
 and in a diamond pattern for the offset 
 pack. 
 
 The number of apricots per row in the 
 face layers designates fruit size, with 
 fractional counts denoting offset packs. 
 Thus 6-row (or 7-row) means a straight 
 pack of 6 (or 7) apricots per row while 
 the 6 1 /^-row count indicates an offset 
 pack of 6 apricots per row, with a half 
 space at one end of each row. 
 
 Truck shipments to out-of-state mar- 
 kets have increased considerably since 
 World War II. The volume moved by 
 
 trucks cannot be determined from offi- 
 cial data because information on this 
 movement is fragmentary. It is known, 
 however, that truck shipments have in- 
 creased considerably and that most of 
 them are destined for markets located in 
 western states. The great bulk of the 
 shipments to more distant markets are 
 still made by rail. Although some mixed 
 cars (containing part loads of other 
 fruits) are loaded, practically all of the 
 interstate shipments consist of straight 
 cars. 
 
 Criticism has been directed at possible 
 inefficiencies in the marketing process 
 and at the large distributive margins in- 
 volved in moving apricots from the pro- 
 ducing areas to consuming markets. 
 
 40 
 
 20 
 
 1910-14 1915-19 1920-24 1925-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 1955-59 
 
 Fig. 5. out-of-state and intrastate fresh apricot shipments, 1910 to 1959. 
 
 [16] 
 
Little information is available for meas- 
 uring these margins accurately and for 
 indicating what economies might be ef- 
 fected. Although many improvements 
 have already been introduced, there un- 
 doubtedly is further need for securing 
 faster movement, better equipment, and 
 lower costs. 
 
 Fresh Sales 
 
 Figure 5 shows the volume of fresh 
 marketings during the past 50 years. 
 They indicate clearly that out-of-state and 
 local sales changed similarly over the 
 years. Since 1910, the proportion of 
 fresh marketings sold within the state 
 generally varied between 50 and 63 per 
 cent. It exceeded 68 per cent in only six 
 of the 50 years and was below 50 per cent 
 in six years. 
 
 During this half century fresh sales 
 increased rapidly to a peak in 1945-49 
 and then decreased even more sharply 
 
 to the present average which is barely 
 above the 1915-19 level. Intrastate sales 
 rose from 5,780 tons per year in 1910- 
 24 to 12,540 tons in 1940-44 before de- 
 clining to 6,040 in 1955-59. Out-of-state 
 sales were 4,430 tons in 1910-24, at a 
 peak of 10,100 in 1945^9, and 4,860 
 tons in 1955-59. 
 
 Because of a rapid population growth, 
 especially in California, per capita con- 
 sumption followed a somewhat different 
 course. It remained almost constant until 
 World War II and then declined very 
 sharply. During the interwar period 
 (1920-39), the typical Calif ornian 
 bought 3.26 pounds of California fresh 
 apricots annually, compared to 0.11 for 
 the remainder of the country. By 1955- 
 59 per capita consumption decreased by 
 73 per cent (to 0.87 pounds) in Cali- 
 fornia and by 44 per cent (to 0.06) in 
 other states. 
 
 These comparisons exclude farm use 
 
 100 
 
 75 
 
 50 - 
 
 25- 
 
 Contra Costa 
 Yolo 
 
 lllll l l 
 
 May 
 21-31 
 
 June 
 1-10 
 
 June 
 11-20 
 
 June 
 21-30 
 
 July 
 1-10 
 
 July 
 11-20 
 
 Fig. 6. out-of-state rail passings of fresh California apricots, 
 by county, ten-day periods, 1955-59 average. 
 
 [17] 
 
400 
 
 3 
 
 en 
 
 300 
 
 =! 200 
 < 
 
 CO 
 
 < 
 
 100 - 
 
 Others 
 
 Washington 
 
 California 
 
 i v ' . ■ ' . ■ ' . '*r 
 
 May June July Aug. 
 
 Fig. 7. monthly carlot apricot shipments, by state, 1955-59 average. 
 
 of apricots within the state and the use 
 of apricots produced in other states. 
 That is, they merely relate intrastate and 
 out-of-state fresh sales of California apri- 
 cots to the population within this state 
 and in all other states. If the total of 
 fresh sales and farm use is compared, 
 the per capita use declined from a peak 
 of 4.0 pounds in the 1930's to 1.1 in 
 California and from a peak of 0.42 
 pounds in 1940-49 to 0.22 in other states. 
 
 Out-of-state Shipments 
 
 Practically all California apricots 
 shipped fresh from the state originate 
 in two counties: Contra Costa and Yolo. 
 The separation of their shipping seasons 
 is clearly evident in figure 6 on page 
 17, which indicates out-of-state rail ship- 
 ments in 1955-59 by 10-day periods. 
 Substantial quantities are shipped from 
 both counties only during mid-June. Al- 
 most two-thirds of the fresh apricots 
 from Yolo County are shipped by June 
 10 before shipments from Contra Costa 
 
 begin. The latter county ships 80 per 
 cent of the apricots after June 20. 
 
 California markets its apricots before 
 shipments from other states become 
 large. Figure 7 above indicates monthly 
 movement of carlot shipments for 1955- 
 59. During May and June, when Califor- 
 nia ships the bulk of its fresh apricots 
 (80 to 85 per cent of the season total) 
 movement from other states is insignifi- 
 cant. After July 1 about two-thirds of the 
 apricots come from Washington, 15 per 
 cent from California, and 18 per cent 
 from other states. 
 
 In other words, California's apricot 
 industry has a distinct advantage, rela- 
 tive to other states, in marketing its fruit 
 for fresh use because its supplies are 
 marketed before those from other states 
 arrive. California apricots are also mar- 
 keted before most other fresh fruits are 
 sold. Although apricots constitute only 
 3 per cent of the fresh deciduous tree 
 fruits shipped from the state, they ac- 
 count for some 12 per cent of the volume 
 
 [18 
 
moved during May-June. The brief sum- 
 mary in the table below indicates the 
 importance of apricot shipments for 
 May-July relative to other fruits in 
 1950-59. 
 
 During June, when most California 
 apricots move to market, shipments of 
 cherries and strawberries are past their 
 peak, plums and melons are in heavy 
 supply, and most other California de- 
 ciduous fruits are just beginning to be 
 shipped. For example, peaches and nec- 
 tarines reach peak movement in July, 
 pears and apples in August, and grapes 
 in September or October. 
 
 Auction Marketings 
 
 The distribution of sales among indi- 
 vidual auction markets has not changed 
 much during the past quarter century. 
 Since 1935 about 51 per cent of auction 
 sales were made at New York, 18 at 
 Chicago, 11 at Philadelphia, and 20 at 
 the nine other markets. One minor ex- 
 ception to this distribution pattern oc- 
 curred. Relative sales declined somewhat 
 at New York and increased correspond- 
 ingly at Philadelphia. But this shift 
 amounted to only 3 percentage points. 
 
 The table on top of page 20 indicates 
 a definite trend toward greater private 
 
 transactions in selling apricots. Such 
 sales expanded from one-fifth to one-third 
 of out-of-state shipments since 1935-39. 
 A further shift, though possibly of a 
 smaller magnitude, appears likely for the 
 1960's. 
 
 Generally the auction price is 6 to 8 
 per cent higher at New York than at 
 other markets. Part of this differential 
 is due to differences in transportation 
 costs. Differences in the varietal compo- 
 sition of sales made at the various auc- 
 tions and in the timing of those sales also 
 are of considerable importance. 
 
 A direct comparison between auction 
 prices and private-sale prices is not pos- 
 sible since the latter are not published. 
 Information secured informally from 
 California shippers indicates, as would 
 be expected, that New York auction 
 prices are a good indicator of the gen- 
 eral level of wholesale prices on all sales. 
 Varietal and seasonal price differentials 
 for private sales are similar to those for 
 auction sales. 
 
 The following discussion refers to New 
 York auction sales and prices. As indi- 
 cated, these sales represent over one-third 
 of interstate shipments and the prices are 
 reasonably satisfactory for making com- 
 parisons. Thus New York auction data 
 
 Rail Carlot Shipments of Certain California F 
 
 ruits, 1950-59 
 
 
 Commodity 
 
 1950-54 average 
 
 1955-59 average 
 
 May 
 
 June 
 
 July 
 
 May 
 
 June 
 
 July 
 
 Apricots 
 
 20 
 
 302 
 
 80 
 
 12 
 
 434 
 
 471 
 
 1,517 
 
 357 
 
 95 
 
 
 
 1,328 
 
 3,850 
 
 22 
 191 
 124 
 
 39 
 
 223 
 
 416 
 
 1,386 
 
 611 
 
 46 
 
 
 
 1,406 
 
 3,190 
 
 Cherries 
 
 Plums 
 
 Other deciduous tree fruits 
 
 Subtotal 
 
 414 
 
 20 
 
 1,010 
 
 666 
 
 2,779 
 
 630 
 
 4,118 
 
 286 
 
 5,273 
 
 1,716 
 
 4,978 
 
 207 
 
 376 
 
 60 
 126 
 996 
 
 2,636 
 
 660 
 
 2,707 
 
 712 
 
 4,642 
 
 1,895 
 
 5,924 
 
 483 
 
 Grapes 
 
 Melons 
 
 Strawberries. . . * 
 
 Grand total 
 
 2,110 
 
 7,813 
 
 12,174 
 
 1,858 
 
 6,715 
 
 12,944 
 
 
 
 [19] 
 
Auction Prices and Sales Distribution of California Apricots, 1935-59 
 
 Market 
 
 1935-39 
 
 1940-44 
 
 1936-49* 
 
 1951-54* 
 
 1955-59 
 
 New York auction 
 
 Auction price — dollars per lug 
 
 1.47 
 1.41 
 
 2.55 
 2.48 
 
 2.67 
 2.59 
 
 3.99 
 3.88 
 
 4.45 
 4.26 
 
 Twelve auctions 
 
 Auction markets 
 
 New York 
 
 Sales — 1,000 packages (lugs and other containers) 
 
 223.1 
 79.4 
 38.3 
 
 340.8 
 85.8 
 
 426.6 
 
 110.1 
 536.7 
 
 206.6 
 69.0 
 39.7 
 
 315.3 
 77.3 
 
 392.6 
 
 185.7 
 578.3 
 
 259.0 
 105.1 
 70.5 
 434.6 
 146.3 
 580.9 
 
 219.1 
 
 800.0 
 
 196.8 
 88.7 
 48.6 
 
 334.1 
 76.8 
 
 410.9 
 
 222.4 
 633.3 
 
 143.7 
 44.1 
 32.4 
 
 220.2 
 55.4 
 
 275.6 
 
 129.4 
 405.0 
 
 Chicago 
 
 Philadelphia 
 
 Three major markets .... 
 
 Nine minor markets 
 
 All markets 
 
 Private sales f 
 
 Interstate shipments! 
 
 New York auction 
 
 Per cent of interstate shipments 
 
 41.6 
 37.9 
 20.5 
 
 35.7 
 32.2 
 32.1 
 
 32.4 
 40.2 
 27.4 
 
 31.1 
 33.8 
 35.1 
 
 35.5 
 32.5 
 32.0 
 
 Other auctions 
 
 Private sales 
 
 
 fDifference between auction sales and out-of-state shipments. 
 
 j Converted from tonnage figures at 83 yi packages (of 24 lbs) per ton. 
 
 New York Auction Sales and Prices of California Apricots, 1 940-59 
 
 Variety 
 
 1940-44 
 
 1946-49 
 
 1950-54 
 
 1955-59 
 
 
 Sales — per cent of season total 
 
 Royal 
 
 Tilton 
 
 66.8 
 
 29.9 
 
 3.3 
 
 60.0 
 
 36.6 
 
 3.4 
 
 63.5 
 
 31.9 
 
 4.6 
 
 60.7 
 30.2 
 
 Other 
 
 9.1 
 
 
 Price — per cent of season average 
 
 Royal 
 
 Tilton 
 
 Other 
 
 103.3 
 
 93.2 
 
 120.5 
 
 107.3 
 
 87.0 
 
 153.8 
 
 101.9 
 
 94.0 
 
 128.2 
 
 98.7 
 
 97.7 
 
 123.0 
 
 [20 
 
are sufficiently representative of all out- 
 of-state marketings to indicate satisfac- 
 torily changes in the varietal composi- 
 tion of sales, in their seasonal distribu- 
 tion, and in relative prices for the various 
 components of sales. 
 
 Varietal Composition 
 
 The lower table on page 20 presents 
 varietal sales and prices at New York 
 auction for the past 20 years. These data, 
 expressed in percentage terms, are shown 
 by five-year averages to eliminate annual 
 fluctuations. 
 
 Relative sales of minor varieties ex- 
 panded considerably since 1940-49 — 
 from 3 to 9 per cent of the total. Sales 
 of the two major varieties declined 
 somewhat — from 64 to 61 per cent for 
 Royal and from 33 to 30 per cent for 
 Tilton. 
 
 The price premium for Royal, relative 
 to Tilton, increased during the 1940's 
 and then decreased. By 1955-59 these 
 major varieties were selling at about the 
 same price. Minor varieties sold for sub- 
 stantially higher prices, especially in 
 1946-49. 
 
 Temporal Distribution 
 
 Figure 8 below portrays weekly sales, 
 by varieties, at the New York auction 
 market in 1955-59. This distribution is 
 similar to the pattern during the preced- 
 ing decade when allowance is made for 
 the larger marketing season which then 
 existed. 
 
 The extent to which the two major va- 
 rieties are sold at different periods is 
 clearly apparent. Only during one week 
 (the fifth of the season, centered at ap- 
 proximately July 1) do sales consist of 
 substantial quantities of both Royal and 
 Tilton varieties. During earlier weeks 
 (i.e., the month of June) over 90 per 
 cent of the sales are Royals while sales 
 of Tiltons are negligible. After the fifth 
 week sales are chiefly of the Tilton va- 
 riety. 
 
 PROCESSING USES 
 
 The importance of processing outlets 
 for California apricots is evident in fig- 
 ure 4 on page 14. For the past 50 years, 
 
 4 5 
 
 WEEK OF SEASON 
 
 Fig. 8. weekly new york auction sales of California apricots, 
 by variety, 1955-59 average. 
 
 [21] 
 
about 90 per cent of total sales have been 
 made to processors. At present 65 per 
 cent of the sales are for canning and 25 
 per cent for drying. This is a reversal of 
 the situation in previous years — say, 
 during 1915-29 — when only a quarter 
 was canned and two-thirds was dried. 
 
 Processing Outlets 
 
 Each year four millon cases of canned 
 apricots are produced and the equivalent 
 of one-quarter million cases is used in 
 the pack of fruit salad. Thus, about 15 
 times as many apricots are used for 
 canned apricots as for fruit salad. 
 
 During recent years increasing quan- 
 tities of cannery apricots have gone for 
 producing other items. The output of 
 canned baby foods, of which pureed 
 apricot is a major item, expanded enor- 
 mously from its small pack produced in 
 the early 1940's. At about this same time 
 the manufacture of apricot nectar was 
 introduced. It has increased consider- 
 ably since World War II. 
 
 Most dried apricots are sold without 
 being mixed with other dried fruits. 
 There is no essential difference in proc- 
 essing operations between dried apricots 
 used alone and those to be mixed with 
 other dried fruit. A substantial portion 
 of the dried-apricot exports are in fruit 
 salad. This item is much less important 
 for domestic sales. 
 
 Apricots are also frozen. Freezing was 
 a significant outlet during the war pe- 
 riod. More than twice as many apricots 
 were frozen in the four years, 1943-46, 
 as in the entire subsequent period. Now 
 only 3,000 tons, or 1% per cent of the 
 California crop, enter the freezing outlet. 
 
 Canned Pack 
 
 Canning of California apricots tripled 
 during the past quarter century — from 
 an annual volume of 42,000 tons in 
 1920-34 to 61,000 tons in 1935^4 and 
 119,000 tons in 1955-59. The California 
 pack of canned apricots, however, only 
 doubled during this period because of 
 
 the rapid expansion in the use of can- 
 nery apricots for other purposes. The 
 pack averaged 2.3 million cases (equiva- 
 lent 24 No. 2y 2 cans) in 1920-39 and 
 4.1 millon since 1940. 
 
 Annual fluctuations in the pack are 
 substantial. During the past 20 years 
 these short-run changes amounted to 2.5 
 million cases — over 60 per cent of the 
 average pack — compared to 50 per cent * 
 fluctuations in production. The year-to- 
 year changes in the pack exceeded 3 mil- 
 lion cases in six of the past 20 years, 
 were 1.5-3 million in eight, and fell be- 
 low 1.5 million in six. 
 
 There has been a substantial change 
 in the relative use of different container 
 sizes. The shift toward a much greater 
 use of smaller containers is shown in 
 figure 9. In interpreting this information 
 special attention must be given to 1943- 
 46. During the war period, the War Pro- 
 duction Board restricted the use of small 4 
 containers to conserve critical materials 
 in short supply. Consequently almost the 
 entire pack was in No. 2% and No. 10 
 cans. 
 
 Following the war, the pack in No. 10 
 cans (destined largely for institutional 
 uses) continued at about the prewar vol- 
 ume. But as the total pack increased, the 
 proportion represented by No. 10 de- 
 clined from one-third to one-fourth of 
 the total. The pack in No. 2%, although 
 increased by a third, also declined on a 
 relative basis — from 45 to 38 per cent. 
 Packs in smaller containers tripled be- 
 tween 1933-40 and 1955-58 and in- 
 creased from 22 to 38 per cent of the 
 total. No. 2 and No. 1 tall cans, repre- 
 senting one-sixth of the prewar pack, t 
 are no longer used. No. 303 and No. 300, 
 introduced since the war, now account 
 for almost 30 per cent of the cases 
 packed. The small 8-oz. can increased 
 from 5 to 10 per cent of the pack since 
 1933-36. 
 
 California's pack represents the great 
 bulk of the canned apricots produced in 
 the country. For the period since 1930, 
 
 [22 
 
California packed 97 per cent of the total. 
 Practically all the remainder is canned 
 in Washington and Utah, where the pack 
 exceeds 200,000 cases in only one year 
 in seven. 
 
 The carry-over of California canned 
 apricots into the new pack year averaged 
 550,000 cases since 1930 — or about 15 
 per cent of the annual pack. In five of 
 these 30 years the carry-over exceeded 
 1.0 million cases, in five it was less than 
 150,000. Thus, in two of three years be- 
 
 ginning stocks (June 1) ranged from 
 150,000 to 1,000,000 cases. 
 
 Dried Pack 
 
 Apricots are dried commercially only 
 in California. Full-mature fruit is cut 
 around the suture line, placed cavity up- 
 ward on a drying tray, sulfured, exposed 
 to the sun, and then shipped to a dried- 
 fruit packer. Sulfuring usually takes 
 only a few hours, say three or four. This 
 operation hastens the drying process, 
 
 1933-36 
 
 1937-40 
 
 1943-46 
 
 1947-50 
 
 1951-54 
 
 1955-59 
 
 1933-36 1937-40 1943-46 1947-50 1951-54 1955-59 
 
 Fig. 9. u. s. pack of canned apricots, by can size, 1933 to 1959. 
 
 [23] 
 
bleaches the fruit, repells insects, and 
 retards deterioration. Upon removal 
 from the sulfur house the fruit on trays 
 is placed in the dry yard and exposed 
 to the sun. This exposure, which requires 
 about one to seven days depending on 
 temperature and humidity, completes the 
 grower's operations. The natural condi- 
 tioned dried apricots, however, must be 
 processed and packaged before they are 
 ready for distribution to consumers. 
 
 The pack increased from 15,800 dry 
 tons in 1910-24 to 30,600 in 1930-39, 
 declined sharply to 15,100 tons during 
 the 1940's. A further subsequent de- 
 crease brought the average pack down 
 to only 8,500 tons in 1955-59— only 27 
 per cent of the peak volume dried 20 
 years earlier. 
 
 The pack varies considerably from 
 year to year. These short-run changes 
 amounted to 7,900 tons during the past 
 20 years — about 65 per cent of the aver- 
 age pack. They were under 3,000 tons 
 in seven years, 4,800 to 7,800 tons in six, 
 and over 9,000 in seven. 
 
 the equivalent per capita figures, cover- 
 ing the period since 1925 are shown in 
 the table below. 
 
 Domestic shipments of canned apri- 
 cots (including that portion of fruit salad 
 consisting of apricots) expanded sharply 
 20 years ago. They increased 60 per cent 
 from 2.5 million cases in 1925-39 to 4.0 
 million in 1940-59. Domestic sales of 
 dried apricots reached a peak of 17,000 
 dry tons in the 1930's and then declined 
 sharply to an average of 7,000 dry tons 
 in 1955-59. 
 
 On a per capita basis annual consump- 
 tion of canned and dried apricots is 1.2 
 pounds (fresh-fruit equivalent) — almost 
 40 per cent below the peak level reached 
 in 1930-39. Most of this decline is due 
 to a reduced consumption of dried apri- 
 cots. Americans now consume an aver- 
 age of 0.08 pounds per person compared 
 to 0.27 pounds in 1930-39. Average con- 
 sumption of canned apricots is 0.57 cans 
 per person, down 11 per cent from the 
 peak during the 1940's. 
 
 Domestic Use 
 
 Exports of processed apricots, al- 
 though considerably below prewar, are 
 still substantial. The importance of ex- 
 port sales is discussed in the next section. 
 The domestic shipments of California 
 canned and dried apricots, together with 
 
 EXPORTS 
 
 Foreign markets have been an impor- 
 tant outlet for California apricots, espe- 
 cially during prewar years. They took 
 about 50 and 20 per cent, respectively, 
 
 Domestic Shipments of California Processed Apricots, 1925-59 
 
 Item 
 
 1925-29 
 
 1930-39 
 
 1940-49 
 
 1950-54 
 
 1955-59 
 
 Total shipments 
 
 Canned* ( 1,000 cases, 
 No.2H) 
 
 2,000 
 11,840 
 
 .40 
 
 .20 
 
 1.58 
 
 2,180 
 
 17,020 
 
 .41 
 
 .27 
 
 1.95 
 
 3,860 
 12,130 
 
 .62 
 
 .17 
 
 1.74 
 
 3,800 
 11,700 
 
 .58 
 
 .12 
 
 1.41 
 
 3,750 
 
 Dried (dry tons, processed) . 
 
 Shipments Per Capita 
 
 Canned* (cans, No. 2%) 
 
 Dried (pounds) 
 
 7,010 
 
 .53 
 .08 
 
 Total (fresh pounds) 
 
 1.15 
 
 * Includes an allowance for apricots in fruit salad figured at 25 per cent of the salad pack. 
 
 [24] 
 
I- 
 
 5 
 
 LU 
 
 3z 
 
 Z 
 
 Q 
 
 UJ 
 
 < 
 
 U 
 
 -z. 
 o 
 
 < 
 
 CO 
 
 3 
 QL 
 
 z: 
 
 LU 
 U 
 
 a: 
 uj 
 a. 
 
 15 
 
 
 vv 
 Vv 
 
 \\ 
 
 
 
 
 - 
 
 10 
 
 
 
 
 
 Canned 
 
 
 5 
 
 
 vv 
 
 Vv 
 
 vs 
 
 ^ 
 
 ^*S^ Dried 
 
 - 
 
 
 
 
 
 Fre 
 
 sh 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 1 
 
 
 1 1 1 
 
 1937-39 
 
 1940-44 
 
 1945-49 
 
 1950-54 
 
 1955-58 
 
 1937-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54 
 
 Fig. 10. u. s. apricot exports, 1937 to 1958. 
 
 1955-58 
 
 of the dried and canned apricots packed 
 in the 1930's. Exports still are important 
 to the apricot industry. 
 
 Total Exports 
 
 Apricot exports averaged some 60,000 
 tons (fresh-fruit basis) in 1920-29, in- 
 creased to about 93,000 tons in 1930-39, 
 and then decreased to 16,000 tons for 
 1950-58. Their importance declined 
 
 [25 
 
 from 39 per cent of the crop in 1920-39 
 to 8 per cent since 1950. This sharp de- 
 cline in exports (to only one-sixth of the 
 1930-39 average) was due principally 
 to reduced shipments of processed apri- 
 cots. 
 
 Figure 10 above shows the major 
 changes in exports during the past quar- 
 ter century. Exports of both dried and 
 canned apricots declined sharply during 
 
 ] 
 
U. S. Exports cf Canned and Dried Apricots, 1930-59* 
 
 Destination 
 
 1930-38 
 
 1940-44 
 
 1946-54 
 
 1955-59 
 
 United Kingdom 
 
 Other Europe 
 
 Non-Europe 
 
 Tons — fresh fruit equivalent 
 
 14,700 
 
 63,600 
 
 6,600 
 
 84,900 
 
 19,700 
 3,300 
 9,600 
 
 900 
 9,600 
 5,300 
 
 400 
 7,800 
 3,900 
 
 Total 
 
 Shipped to Non-Europe 
 
 32,600 
 
 15,800 
 
 12,100 
 
 per cent of total listed 
 
 7.8 
 10.8 
 
 29.3 
 11.4 
 
 33.4 
 26.5 
 
 32.1 
 31.1 
 
 Shipped as canned 
 
 * Excludes apricot portion in canned and dried fruit salad. 
 
 World War II and remained low there- per cent of the total (fresh fruit basis), 
 
 after, relative to prewar shipments. Fresh while exports of canned and fresh apri- 
 
 apricot exports, however, remained fairly cots increased from 13 to 24 and 2 to 
 
 constant, on the average, for the period 11 per cent, respectively, 
 
 since 1937. Expressed in per cent, dried- Data on canned and dried apricots 
 
 apricot exports decreased from 85 to 65 alone (as summarized in the table above) 
 
 Exports of California Dried Apricots, 1925-59 
 
 Destination 
 
 1925-29 
 
 1930-39 
 
 1940-44 
 
 1945-59 
 
 As apricots 
 United Kingdom 
 
 dry tons — processed weight 
 
 1,070 
 
 5,890 
 
 2,170 
 
 800 
 
 420 
 
 1,440 
 
 10,340 
 
 2,630 
 
 770 
 
 520 
 
 3,380 
 270 
 340 
 550 
 
 1,070 
 
 50 
 
 870 
 380 
 450 
 220 
 
 Western Europe* 
 
 Other Europe 
 
 Canada 
 
 Other countries 
 
 Subtotal 
 
 In dried salad 
 
 10,350 
 500 
 
 15,700 
 870 
 
 5,610 
 
 110 
 
 1,970 
 330 
 
 Total 
 
 Shipped to Europe 
 
 10,850 
 
 16,570 
 
 5,720 
 
 2,300 
 
 per cent 
 
 88.2 
 
 4.6 
 
 47.8 
 
 91.8 
 
 5.2 
 
 48.0 
 
 71.1 
 
 1.9 
 
 32.0 
 
 66.0 
 14.3 
 20.1 
 
 Shipped in salad 
 
 Of California pack 
 
 
 * Includes France, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium. 
 
 [ 26 
 
indicate that the decline in exports re- 
 sulted mainly from a loss of the Euro- 
 pean market. Exports of canned and 
 dried apricots to Europe are only a tenth 
 of prewar, while shipments to other 
 countries declined 40 per cent. Thus ex- 
 ports to non-European markets rose 
 from 8 per cent of the total in 1930-39 
 to 32 per cent since 1940. 
 
 Dried-Apricot Exports 
 
 Before World War II large quantities 
 of dried apricots were exported, chiefly 
 to Western Europe. About 16,600 dry 
 tons were shipped annually during the 
 1930's. Three quarters of this quantity 
 went to five countries (France, Germany, 
 United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Bel- 
 gium), 17 per cent to other European 
 countries, and 8 per cent to non-Euro- 
 pean markets. Export data appear in the 
 table on the bottom of page 26. 
 
 Since 1945 shipments to Europe have 
 been small — 9 per cent of prewar. Ex- 
 ports to other countries also declined, 
 but only to a half of the 1930-39 aver- 
 age. Total exports, including dried apri- 
 cots in fruit salad, remained at about 
 2,300 dry tons in 1945-59— or only 14 
 
 per cent of the average for 1930-39. Ex- 
 ports declined from half of the prewar 
 pack to only one-fifth since 1945. 
 
 Exports of dried fruit salad also de- 
 creased, but less sharply. As a result the 
 proportion of dried-apricot exports rep- 
 resented in fruit salad rose from 5 per 
 cent prewar to almost 15 per cent in the 
 postwar period. 
 
 Canned-Apricot Exports 
 
 Shipments abroad declined from 690,- 
 000 cases per year in the late 1920's to 
 195,000 in 1950-59. Since the domestic 
 pack expanded considerably during this 
 period, the relative importance of our 
 foreign market shrank even more. Ex- 
 ports decreased from 25 per cent of total 
 shipments in 1925-29 to 5 per cent since 
 1950. The table below presents the perti- 
 nent export data. 
 
 United Kingdom has almost disap- 
 peared as an outlet. This market now 
 takes only 5,000 cases annually compared 
 to 530,000 cases in 1925-29. Current 
 shipments to other countries are 50 per 
 cent higher than in 1925-29. At present 
 about 60 per cent of our exports go to 
 Belgium and Canada; a quarter to the 
 
 U. S. Ex 
 
 oorts of Co 
 
 med Apricots, 1925-59 
 
 
 Destination 
 
 1925-29 
 
 1930-39 
 
 1940-49 
 
 1950-54 
 
 1955-59 
 
 United Kingdom 
 
 
 1,000 cases — basis N 
 
 0.2!^ 
 
 
 530 
 
 * 
 
 86 
 30 
 33 
 
 454 
 
 * 
 
 59 
 
 4 
 19 
 
 125 
 80 
 28 
 18 
 72 
 
 22 
 60 
 18 
 40 
 16 
 
 5 
 
 71 
 74 
 65 
 18 
 
 Belgium 
 
 Other Europe 
 
 Canada 
 
 Other non-Europe 
 
 Total 
 
 679 
 
 536 
 
 323 
 
 156 
 
 233 
 
 Shipped to United Kingdom . . . 
 Of California shipments 
 
 Per cent 
 
 78.1 
 25.3 
 
 84.6 
 19.8 
 
 38.9 
 
 7.7 
 
 14.3 
 4.0 
 
 2.2 
 5.6 
 
 * Included in "other Europe." 
 
 [27] 
 
Netherlands, West Germany, Sweden and 
 Norway; and 15 per cent to other coun- 
 tries. 
 
 Fresh-Apricot Exports 
 
 Since 1937, when data were first re- 
 ported, fresh exports averaged 1,940 tons 
 per year. The quantity shipped to for- 
 eign markets varies considerably from 
 year to year because of large annual 
 fluctuations in the United States crop. In 
 about three years during each decade ex- 
 ports either exceeded 3,000 tons or went 
 below 1,000. Shipments since 1950 have 
 been 20 per cent above the average for 
 1937-49. 
 
 These exports are not shipped far. For 
 example, in 1955-59 about 92 per cent 
 went to Canada and 7 per cent to Mexico. 
 
 RETURNS TO PRODUCER 
 
 As used in this circular, "farm price" 
 refers to the payment received by pro- 
 ducers for "naked fruit at the first de- 
 livery point." Such prices have been re- 
 ported by the California Crop and Live- 
 stock Reporting Service for each year 
 since 1909 for the apricots sold in each 
 utilization outlet and for "all uses." 
 Other meanings for farm prices may be 
 used depending upon a varying amount 
 of "added services" rendered by the pro- 
 ducer — e.g., for fruit on the tree, for fruit 
 delivered by the grower to a packing 
 house or processing plant, for fruit sold 
 by him to a wholesaler or retailer, etc. 
 
 General Level 
 
 Fluctuations in farm prices to apricot 
 producers result mainly from changes in 
 production and consumer purchasing 
 power. Both factors have varied widely 
 in the past. Prices ranged from a low of 
 $18 per ton in 1932, at the depth of the 
 depression, to a record high of $157 in 
 1958, when demand was strong and a 
 very small crop was produced. 
 
 The effect of consumer purchasing 
 power is shown by noting the general 
 movement of the average farm prices 
 during several decades. Prices dropped 
 sharply from an average of $60 per ton 
 in 1920-29 to an average of $26 in 1931- 
 33. They increased, but only gradually, 
 over the next decade to $56 in 1940-42. 
 Prices rose immediately to $110 for the 
 war period (1943^16) and remained at 
 a slightly higher level ($116) since 1950. 
 
 For many fruits year-to-year price 
 changes are substantial and are defi- 
 nitely correlated with opposite changes 
 in annual production. Such does not ap- 
 pear to be the case with apricots. For 
 example, since 1943 (when the price 
 averaged $113 per ton) the price 
 changed, from one season to the next, 
 by more than $30 in only two years com- 
 pared to six variations of $18 to 28 and 
 eight of $3 to 14. Furthermore, the cor- 
 relation between price changes and pro- 
 duction changes is negative, as would be 
 expected, but it is not very pronounced. 
 (In statistical terms, the rank correla- 
 tion is p =-0.44, which indicates that for 
 this period about one-fifth, p 2 , the fluc- 
 tuation in the farm price from year to 
 year is explainable by annual variations 
 in production. A considerably higher 
 value is secured for most fruits.) 
 
 Returns by Outlets 
 
 Figure 11 indicates the general rela- 
 tionship among farm prices prevailing 
 in the various outlets for the past 50 
 years. There is a definite pattern of rel- 
 ative prices. Generally farm prices are 
 highest for out-of-state fresh shipments 
 and lowest for cannery sales. For fresh 
 local sales, prices are about 10 per cent 
 below those received for out-of-state 
 shipments. On an equivalent fresh basis 
 dried apricot prices are roughly equal 
 to those for fresh local sales. 
 
 The lower two panels of figure 11 show 
 that relative prices changed substantially 
 during the past half century. Relative 
 prices for cannery apricots declined 
 
 [28] 
 
_jq: 
 
 -JUJ 
 
 "8 
 
 2 
 
 Q. ■ 
 
 150 
 
 100 
 
 50 
 
 
 160 
 
 140 - 
 
 Averages 
 
 J L 
 
 Annual 
 
 Intrastate Fresh 
 
 J I I I I I ' ' I 
 
 Out-of-state Fresh 
 
 150 
 
 J I I I I I I 1 L 
 
 160 
 
 1910-14 1920-24 1930-34 1940-44 1950-54 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 
 
 Fig. 11. grower prices, by type of utilization, 1910 to 1959. 
 
 steadily throughout the period — from 11 
 per cent above the average in 1910-1919 
 to 14 per cent below since 1950. They 
 advanced from 95 to 126 per cent of the 
 average for dried apricots and 100 to 
 122 per cent for fresh shipments. 
 
 Future Returns 
 
 If, as indicated above, future produc- 
 tion continues at about the present level, 
 there may be a moderate increase in 
 apricots available for canning since fresh 
 sales and drying are likely to decrease 
 still further. If consumer purchasing 
 
 power continues to climb at or near the 
 present rate, demand for apricots in 
 fresh and processed form will expand. 
 
 Under these circumstances farm prices 
 should increase. In years when bumper 
 crops are produced, however, grower re- 
 turns will decline, as they have in the 
 past. 
 
 Farm prices for cannery, dried, and 
 fresh apricots should continue at about 
 present relationships. This conclusion is 
 reached in spite of the fact that the pro- 
 portions of the crop entering the three 
 major outlets is expected to change 
 somewhat. 
 
 [29] 
 
• 
 
The tables and charts used in this circular are summaries of more de- 
 tailed information appearing in "Mimeographed Report No. 223," pub- 
 lished in December 1959. This report gives sources in detail. It may be 
 obtained by writing to the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Eco- 
 nomics, University of California, at Berkeley or at Davis. 
 
 Co-operative Extension work in Agriculture and Home Economics, College of Agriculture, University of California, and United States Department of Agriculture 
 co-operating. Distributed in furtherance of the Acts of Congress of May 8, and June 30, 1914. George B. Alcorn, Director, California Agricultural Extension Service. 
 
 6Jm-l,'61(B5694)JF 
 
 31 
 
You* 
 Consider"^ Future 
 
 in Agricultural Economics 
 
 Agricultural economics applies SCIENCE to the BUSINESS OF 
 FARMING ... to the marketing of farm products, to the use of agri- 
 cultural and range resources. 
 
 If agriculture is to continue as an important segment of our na- 
 tional economy, farmers must be adequately trained in the business 
 of farming. The University of California's course of study in agricul- 
 tural economics is a step toward that goal. 
 
 The curriculum . . . presented on the Davis campus, places major 
 emphasis on Farm Management . . . but also provides instruction in 
 Marketing, Co-operative Marketing. Agricultural Finance, Policy, and 
 related subjects. Supplementary work may also be taken in such 
 branches of agriculture as Agronomy, Animal Husbandry, Pomology, 
 Agricultural Engineering, and the like. 
 
 The faculty ... is comprised of trained, experienced economists, 
 many with national and international reputations in their fields. The 
 staff is active in service and research work in all of the Western States. 
 
 Job opportunities . . . can best be understood by pointing to 
 positions now occupied by graduates. The largest percentage are 
 farmers. Other lines of endeavor include: 
 
 Farm Managers • Credit work • Farmer Organizations 
 Marketing Organizations • Agricultural Extension work 
 
 State and Federal Departments of Agriculture work 
 College teaching and research • High school teaching 
 
 For more information: Write to the Department of 
 
 Agricultural Economics, 
 University of California, Davis. 
 
 or: See your University of California 
 
 Farm Advisor for college entrance 
 requirements.