SUBSTANCE OF OBSERFAriONS STATE OF THE P U BLIC FINANCES GREAT BRITAIN, BY LORD R A W D O N, IN A SPEECH ON THE THIRD READING OF THE BANK LOAN BILL J> II O U S E ok ' L O R D S, On Thursday, June 9, 1791. LONDON: 'HINTED FOR J. DEBRETT, OPPOSITE BURLINCTO! HOUSE, PICCADILLY. MDCC.JtCI, URL Statement of the Sele& Commit- tee, (May 10, 1 791) principally referred to, calculated as a future Eftimate, page 27, Appendix F, No. 5, SPEECH op LORD RAWDON ON THE PUBLIC FINANCES. My Lords, Y GAVE notice to your Lordfhips that I fhould avail myfelf of the Third Reading of this Bill, as an excufe to throw out a few remarks on the ilate of the Finances in general. The matter be- ing underftood in that light, it will not, I am fure, m point of form, be thought neceflary that I move any precife queftion ; it would be a point of order eafily fatisfied : but it would, in reality, be nugatory, as I only with to urge a few obferva- tions for the reflection of your Lordfhips. Al- though the field which I have claimed be fo wide, B ( * ) your Lordihips need not fear that I fhall run into much length. I am too well aware, that no at- tention can follow up a long and complicated de- tail of figures; I (hall, therefore, have the policy to reftrict myfelf to the plainer and more effential features of the fubjecl;, declining minor inveftiga- tion. It is with this view to perfpicuity that I fhall argue from the date fubmitted by Miniflers to the Committee of Finance, whofe Report has beenjuft publifhed; and I beg to beunderftood as making my calculations upon thofe documents, unlefs where I exprefsly declare my deviation. I fhall, with your permiffion, begin with a brief advertence to a point, which, without doubt, interefts me perfonally; but which would not be obtruded by me upon you, did it intereft me alone. It is a matter of importance to the public as much as to myfelf. I allude to the balance be- tween the receipt and the expenditure of the three years immediately following the eftabliih- ment of the plan for diminifhing the National Debt; namely, from 5th of January 1786 to 5th of January 1789. I had afTerted in this Houfe, that the million yearly, during that period, applied towards the reduction of the National Debt, did not fpring from an annual furplus of income after the expenditure was defrayed ; but that it was fur- nilhed from extra refources. In making that afier- tion, I took a diftinction which I think was fair and liberal I laid, that were the queftion, what inference ( 3 ) inference was to be drawn for the regulation of your finance in future years, from the balance be- tween your income and expenditure in thofe three years ? nothing ought to be taken into the calculation but actual revenue. By that defigna- tion I meant to defcribe the permanent taxes, and thofe imports, which, though annual in their form, are always reforted to; fources which furniih a conftantj return to the Exchequer, and the pro- duce of which, though it will necefTarily fluctuate to a degree in its amount, may be capable of tole- rable computation. The queflion, however, was not profpective ; it was a queflion of mere fact, whether the income of the three years had fur- nifhed the annual million ? In that point of view, all accidental fums paid within the term into the Exchequer, mould be reckoned as well as the permanent fupplies; even, although thofe fums Ihculd really have been due before the period of the three years commenced. The income thus comt plicated I would call receipt in contradiftinction to revenue. It was upon the receipt I originally ar- gued; and I again admit the receipt as t;he bafis of the propofnion, which I now re-afTert. The evi- dence, as exhibited by the Committee of the Houfe of Commons, ftands thus : — The produce of the permanent taxes £, for the three years is flated by the Committee at - . 37>797a I 3 I B 2 To ( 4 ) Brought over - - £'37>797> T 3« To this add the eftimated amount of the Land and Malt Taxes for three years - 7,674,000 Total Revenue 45,471,831 Add farther, Refpited duties paid by the Eaft India Company in 1786 - - 522,500 Impreft money repaid, and arrears of Land and Taxes, paid after 5th January 1786 - - 476,686 Clear gain on the Lotteries during the three years - 675,00c Total Receipt - 47,146,01: Expenditure of the threeyears, as ftated in the document (Appen. F. No. 5 of the Report) fubminiftered by the Treafury to the Committee - 46,692,12: Surplus in the three years 453*895 Thus, fimpiy upon the mowing of Adminif- tration, the propofition which I advanced (lands confirmed. For it is obvious, that a furplus of * 453» 8 95 J * ( 5 ) 453 >8 95I- did not furnifh the three millions which the public was led to fuppofe that fund had (applied towards the liquidation of the Na- tional Del:. But this evidence of my having been well-founded, as to my principal pofition, is not entirely fufficient; although the propofition to which I pledged myfelf before the Houfe, was, " that the annual million did not arife from an the land and malt taxes are granted, the Bank agrees to accept Exchequer Bills, on thefecurity of the pro- duce of thofe taxes, to the amount of 2 , 7 50.0O0I. The produce of thofe taxes is however, not- withftanding, received into the Exchequer, and applied to current expences ; an annual fettlement of intereft only being made with the Bank, and the bills replaced by a new iffue on the lame foot- ing. But the Bank likewife accepts farther bills from the Exchequer, reding only on the general credit of Government. Thefe latter bills may be compared to the notes of hand which an individual would ( '5 ) would give on his general credit, without any fpe-? cirlc fund for their difcharge. Your Lordfliips fee that there muft be fome point beyond which the Directors of the Bank cannot, in honefty to their conftituents, proceed in the acceptance of thefe bills. Hence, I entreat you, reflect on the inexpediency of approaching that point in time of peace. When the fudden neceffity of armament preffes upon you, the refource of Parliament is a vote of credit ; Exchequer Bills, to the amount of the vote, are iffued : but if thofe bills have not currency, which would be the cafe if you had pre- viously loaded the Bank with as many as it could bear, your vote of credit would be nugatory. Your Exchequer Bills may be fuel to have no currency but through the medium of the Bank: for, could you otherwife apply them to the ob- jects of immediate demand, it would be under a depreciation that would be ruinous. Feci how ferious it is to deflroy, by an unv/ife ufe of it in. profound tranquillity, that refource which is your moft ready and efficacious fupply in the hour of difficulty. You have now, as it were, eftablifbed 5,500,000!. of Exchequer Bills as an unfunded debt, fyftematicaily carried forward from year to year. I (hall prefently have to notice a part of that fum. For the moment it will only be necef- fary to add, that your Navy and Victualling Bills being, to a heavy amount, bought up by the Bank, the load is thereby materially augmented, and the i capa- ( i6 ) capacitr of acceptance in the Bank obvioufly di- minifhed. Thefe preliminaries, my Lord;, hare openecf the view to a jutler consideration of the immediate {late o( the finances at large ; as that (late is of- fered to you by the balance, in point of fact, be- tween your income and your expenditure, for the five years, from the i ft Jan. 1786, to ill Jan. 179 1. In arguing the fabjec~t, I mail take the funis as Adminiftration lias ilated them ; though, in the expenditure, they are, for the firft three years, fubject to all the obfervations which I have already made upon them. According to the documents which were fubminiilered to the Com- mittee, " the fums applicable to *' the public expences in the five £. 11 years" amounted to — 88,040,0:, The expenditure by the fame flate- nient, including the fums paid to- wards liquidating the public debt, amou n t cd t o 88,116,916 So there remained unfatisfied, only 76,86 i To this flatemcnt I fhall object : and 1 (hall du It upon the ground which fecretly occurred to the Minifter when he quitted the fimple exhibition of income, and adopted the ambiguous expreffion of ( i7 ) cc fums applicable to the public expences." I (hall argue, that certain of the fums, for which he has taken credit, were of a nature not to be applicable, in the point of view in which he has exhibited them, to the fervices of the five years in quef- tion. I fhall firft enumerate the fums which I fhould, on that principle, fubftract, and make the deduction, in order to fhew how I think the ba- lance really (lands ; I will afterwards give the reafons for ftriking off each particular fum ; as in that mode I fhall lefs embarrafs the perfpicuity of the meafurement, I then deduct, Monies in the Exchequer, 5th Jan. £. 1786 — — 1,172,119 Army Savings in ditto, 5th Jan. 1786 492,378 Intereft received for money lent abroad 34,000 Tontine loan • — 1,002,140 Total 2,700,637 Before this fum be fubftracted from the amount of the receipt for the five years, the over-charge for land and malt, which I noticed in the account of the three years, fhould be deducted, Suppofed income of the five years 88,040,055 Over-charae for land and malt Carried forward 87,805,239 D Brought ( x8 ) Brought forward ^87,805,239 Dedud 2,700,637 Remains — real income 85,104,602 Expenditure of the five years, with the addition of 250,0001. intereft of public debt, omitted in the ac- count of 1786 — 88,366,916 deficiency 3,262,314 Still it is inconteftable, that in the five years the fum of 4,750,0001. was paid to the Commif- fioners for reducing the public debt. Now from that fum mud be deducted that which, it appears, the income of the five years could not furnifh. Applied to reduce debt — 4,750,000 Deficit of income in the five years 3,262,314 1,487,686 It is thus fliewn, that about one million four hundred and eighty-eight thoufand pounds was all that could be dedicated to the redu&ion of the National Debt from the actual income of the five years ; including in that income all contingent receipts which did really fall in within that term. The difference between that fum and the four mil- lions feven hundred and fifty thoufand pounds mult have been furnilhed from extra refources. The ( *9 ) The quality of thofe extra refources is, therefore, what I have now to examine : and the refult of the inveftigation will determine whether I have proceeded on juft grounds in claffing, as extra refources, thofe fums which I have deducted from the flatement of income. I recapitulate them, Monies in the Exchequer previous to £- 5th Jan. 1786 — 1,172,119 Army favings fimilarly circumftanced 49 2 >37 8 Interefl on money lent abroad 34,000 Tontine loan — « — 1,002,140 2,700,637 On the firft of thefe I muft inquire, with fome furprize, why we never, till of late, when the quef- tion was fo hard preiFed in this Houfe, heard of thofe monies in a fpecific aggregate ? That there were in the Exchequer balances remaining from certain heads, after the fervices were difcharged to which thofe funds had been appropriated, was known : their amount was not. Why, when it was of this magnitude, was it not brought forward as a fum ? I mean not to impute that there was any difpofition to employ this money in a manner not advantageous for the public, much lefs to in- tercept any of it from the national fervice. But that which I diftinctly charge from the face of the tranfattion, is, an attempt to confound this fum D 2 with ( 20 ) with the income arifing from the for.rces properly belonging to the term pofterior to the 5th of Jan, 1786. The inference which it was hoped the pub- lic would draw, if the attempt fucceeded, was, the improved condition of the finances in the hands which then managed them. This fum was infi- nuated by petty portions in the grants fubfequent to January 1786, under ordinary titles of furplus remaining from fuch or fuch a fund, that excited no curiofity or investigation. The motive of that policy is plain : had this fum been acknowledged, in its extent, as exifting when the Committee of Finance publifhed their Report in March 1786, the obfervation refpecting it was fo obvious, that it could not have failed being urged on the occa- fion. " If there be (it would have been faid) above a million in hand, you never can pretend to carry that forward for the fervice of this year : becaufe the plan which you have produced for the reduction of the National Debt goes upon the dif- tinct aflumption, that the balance between the nun- al income and the annual expenditure, will leave a furplus adequate to your object. You in- fill upon this in conterr.pt of all our doubts ; therefore you cannot need extraneous aids to fwell that income. And, indeed, you have made a fallacious ftatement of the condition of the country as to its debt, if, having this fum in hand, you do not give the public credit for it in your computation. The natural deftination for that fum would be to extinguish with it a portion of the Navy ( 21 ) Navy Bills, or other unfunded debt, charging the country To much lefs in the burden which you hold out to them : for you, indifputably, would not with the debt to appear a million greater than it really is, in order that you. may have the higher merit in feeming to alleviate their didrefTes." — Such, my Lords, would have been the inevita- ble comment which mud have prevented this fum, had it been acknowledged, from being confounded with the future income. It is owned, that the monies were in the Exchequer previous to January 1786: the fum was then a confoli- dated poffeflion which ought to have balanced, as far as it went, againd the debt ; at lead it ought to have been dated in fo didincl a manner, as to have been regarded in the light of a remedy againd any part of the floating debt that might become inconvenient. Whatfoever was the rea- fon that it was not then proclaimed, now that its nature appears fairly to you, I think the conclu- fion irrefragable, that it never can be admitted as a part of the income of the five years to be mea- fured againd the expenditure of the fame period. The cafe of the fecond article, the Armv Savings, dands precifely on the fame ground. The whole amount under that head, applied to the fervice of the five years, is 1,091,1471. ; from this I deduct only what appears to have accrued before the period which we are meafuring ; name- ly, the excefs of the fupply for land forces in 1784., ( 22 ) 1 7S4, the fame for 1785, and a furplus of monies voted for Chelfea Hofpital in 1785; making to- gether 492,3781. If that balance exifted in favour of the public, previous to January 1786, it ought to have been ftated in favour of the public : it was the property, already realized, of the community, and their debt was by fo much the lefs. The debt has been diminimed by the employment of that fum ; but that is not the queftion now agitated ; it might have been equally diminimed by the ap- plication of that fum before the 5th of January, 17S6. The fum has nothing to do with the in- come of the five years ; upon the exuberance of which, under their conduct, the prefent Minifters affect to reft the proof of their fuperior manage- ment. This money, as well as the former article, ought to have been applied in discharging a portion of the debt, before the plan for reducing the debt by furpluiTes of income was fet a-foot ; then the latter would have flood on its own merits. The third article was thus produced : It was judged expedient to aid the Prince of Orange with a loan of 187,0001. That fum was raifed here for the purpofe : it was, however, understood at the time, that this loan was not to be regarded as an addition to our public debt, becaufe that regular payments from Holland were, by inftal- ment, to furnilh the intereft, and gradually to difcharge the capital. Credit is taken for the 2 187,000!. ( *3 ) i 87,000!. in the account of extra funis applied to the fervice of the five years ; and I have admitted it, upon the fuppofition that it is, on the other hand, charged as an expenditure ; imagining it, chough not fpecifically defcribed, to be included under ajiead of 191,3421. granted in 1789, to make good money employed in fecret fervice abroad. It is clear, that a fum remitted from Holland to defray a portion of the intereft, and extinguifh a part of the principal of that loan, was intercepted by the Exchequer, and applied to other purpofes : confequently, we mud provide, in fome other manner, for the difcharge of ib much intereft, and fuch a portion of the capital, as the Dutch have exonerated themfelves from by that remittance. It comes then to the fame thing as if we had borrowed 34,0001. the amount of that payment, from Holland ; and when it is proved equivalent to a loan, it is, of courfe, precluded from (landing as an article of income. It \*ould be fuperfluous to expatiate on the fourth article; the Tontine Loan, money bor- rowed to fupply deficiency of income, never can be reprefented as income. A queftion next arifes, with what degree of ad- vantage thefe extra refources have been applied ? I mean, how far their expenditure has operated in really diminiming the public debt during the five years. The flatement which I now lay before you, ( 24 ) you, may enable you to judge upon this point more clearly than you well could, from the feveral facts as they Hand difperfed in the Report of the Committee. The flock bought by the Commiffioncrs up to the i ft of February 1 791, amounted to 6,772,350!. The annual intereft on this fum was 203, 1 70I. Here it will be proper to remark to your Lordlhips, that the computation of the National Debt by its capital is indubitably an erroneous mode of confidering it. As the capital of the monies veiled in the funds cannot be demanded of Government, it is only for the regular payment of intereft on thofe monies, at the (rated periods, that Government is refponfible. In other words, Government only owes perpetual annuities to the amount of the intereft agreed for on the depofit of thofe funis ; which annuities are upon certain con- ditions redeemable by the nation. The reduc- tion, therefore, of the public burdens in the five years, is the extinction of an annuity of 203,1 70I. Let us examine how this has been compaffed: the monies applied for the purpofe, beyond the receipt of the five years, may be claiied under three defcriptions; as fums expended, as debts acknowledged, and as debts obvioufly chargeable. With regard to thofe two heads oi>debt, it is ap- parent that they have been thus incurred. Por- tion-, of the annual income which mould have an- fwered ( *5 ) fwercd certain current fervices, have been applied to the purchafe of flock. Hence the payment of thofe fervices was either left in arrear, or fup- plied by refources which entailed debt in fome other mape. It mud be underflood, that every annual fervice is defrayed before a furplus can be reckoned : therefore, the application of any fum to the purchafe of (lock, leaving, thereby, a fervice undifcharged, was tantamount to borrowing that fum in order to make the purchafe; and, in that light, the amount of the debt fo incurred is here to be confidercd. The detail and amount of thofe extra refources will Hand as follows : — Sums Expended. £• Money in Exchequer, previous to Jan. 1786 - - - 1,172,119 Army favings previous to ditto 492,378 Intereft money for abroad - 34,000 Tontine Loan - - 1,002,140 2,700,637 Debts Acknowledged. Navy - - 457.95° Deficiency of Grants 80,590 Ordnance - - 61,909 600,449 Carried forward 3,308.086 E Brought ( 26 ) Brought over 3,301,086 Debts Chargeable. if- Additional Exchequer Bills 750,000 Anticipated Quarter of the Confolidated Fund 628,982 1,378,982 Total 4,680,068 In explanation of the fir ft defcription, nothing need here be added to the illuftration which I before gave of thofe funis. Upon the fecond head, the acknowledgement of Minifters leaves no occafion for obfervation. The third head requires more dilation; becaufe both the articles contained in it have been the fubject of repeated controverfy. The queftion on the Exchequer Bills (lands thus : in finding a part of the floating debt in 1784, the outftanding Ex- chequer Bills were left at 4,500,0001. In the year 1785, the Minifler applied to Parliament for leave to iflue an additional million. This could not be toanlwer any prefTure in the current demands of the year, becaufe your Lordlhips know the in- come did, in that year, exceed the expenditure by more than 900,000!. It could not have been recommended by the refult of the preceding year, for C *7 ) for that alfo had produced a large furplus. In fact* it does not appear that more than 250,0001. from that million was applied within the year 1785, The conftruction, therefore, to be put upon the requefl to Parliament for that million neceflarily is, that it was intended as a provifion for extin- guifhing fome other unfettled charge, whofeform might render it more troublefome, than an addi- tion to the amount of Exchequer Bills. I have at this moment in my contemplation the Navy Debt; any part of which that remains undifcharged fo long as (according to the cuftom of the depart- ment) to become entitled to intereft, grows very burdenfome. No application of this nature ap- pears with regard to 750,0001. of the million in queftion. Be it here obferved, that a Diftribution Paper, as it is called, marking the dates at which portions of the million were iifued, could not de- cide the point; for, it is clear, that the whole mil- lion might have been iflued in payment of the current fer vices of the year, and the income natu- rally applicable to thofe fervices might, to the fame amount, have been with-held; which would produce the fame effect of keeping the additional fum in hand: confequently, no part of the million can be deemed to have been expended beyond what (hall correfpond with the amount- of de~ mands liquidated, diftinct from the balance be- tween the fervices and the receipt of the year. In 1786, that additional million was carried for- ward in the new vote of Exchequer Bills. Seven E 2 hundred ( *s ) hundred and fifty thoufand pounds, therefore-; were thrown into the credit of that year. When the Minifter brought forward his plan for the re- duction of the National Debt, upon the fuppofi- tion that there would be an annual excefs of in- come beyond current demand, had he then ap- plied to Parliament that he might add 750,000!. to the debt under the head of Exchequer Bills, in order to produce the excefs which he prophefied, the propofal would have been held laughable. The weaker! capacity would have difcovered that, if the excefs could not be fecured without fuch an aid, the expected furplus was vifionary. To bor- row by way of exhibiting a furplus, would have been a delufion too grois to have palled on any underftanding. Now, practically the carrying for- ward that fum of 7^o,oool. in Exchequer Bills, comes to the fame point, although it was notabfo- lutely granted within the term. If thofe bills are fuppofed to haveexifted as a fum in the hands of Government at the opening of that plan, (and there is no proof of their expenditure previous) they are fubject to the fame remark which I have made upon the other monies exifting in the Exche- quer, when theftatement of its debts was expofed 10 the nation by the Committee in 17 86. Or courfe, it mud juftly be charged as an extraordi- nary fum funk within the live years. The anticipated quarter is thus circumftanced ; the account of the Confouuated 'Wind ufed to be ( *9 ) made up to Chriftmas. In 1786, the Minifter, having appropriated to the fupplies the quarter's income of that fund, accumulated upon the 5th of April, took four quarters more up to the 5th of April 1787, for the fervice of the year 1786. Thus, to anfwer four quarters expenditure he ap- plied five quarters income. The amount of the fifth quarter thus anticipated, was 628,982!. Take this fum in what light you pleafe, either as a a fum already accumulated, at the difpofal of Go- vernment, or as an anticipation of revenue, it can- not be admitted as a portion of the natural income of the years in queftion. If it is to be confidered as an accumulated fum, always at the command of Government, it ought to have been 10 ftated by the Committee of Finance in 1786, and the nation ought to have had credit to the amount* If it be regarded as an anticipation of revenue to which the quarter's expenditure is not brought up, it is obvious that there is, by that means, a quarter's debt conflantly carried forward. This debt has been added clearly within the five years. The fum, therefore, by the finking of which, this debt was entailed, muft be charged either under this head, or under the head of Money in the hands of Government, previous to the eitablifhment of the plan for the reduction of the national debt. The conclufion which I propofe to draw from this flatement, is, that nothing, whatever, has hi- therto been effected towards diminifhir.g the pub- ( 5° ) lie debt, by furplufes of income. I have repre- iented the extraordinary fums expended, under the three ieveral heads, to amount to four mil- lions fix hundred and eighty-thoufand pounds; a total nearly approaching to the entire fum paid into the hands of the Commiflioners. This, your Lordfhips will take notice, was not flock, but fo- lid calh. At four and a half per cent, the intereft on this fum would be £.210,600 The Commiflioners have reduced the annual demand on the nation for intereft - - 203,107 It here appears that you have only extinguifhed an annuity of two hundred and three thoufand pounds, by the annihilation of a fum, the return from which would, in the common courfe of in- tereft, have been fuperior. That the 4,750,000!. applied by the Commiflioners, has not expunged an intereft greater than what the 4,680,000!. is rated to produce, arifes N from this circumftance : that in the conftitution of the plan for reducing the public debt, there is a tendency (which ihall be explained prefently) to keep up the price of flock in the fvinds beyond its natural relative va- lue; fo far cloegincr the operation of the meafure, Were the confederation to flop here, I fhould have troubled your Lordfhips to little purpofe , i fhould have only indicated what mull, from the uncertain ( 3' ) uncertain foundation of fpeculations in finance, too frequently happen, that the public had embra- ced a delufive expectation, under which confider- able fums had been applied, not very advantage- oufly : but we have to look forward ; and it is incumbent on us to form from paft experience fome judgement for the regulation of our future conduct. The principle of calculation which feems leaft liable to error is, that we mould em- brace a period which may give room for all the contingencies ordinarily affecting income and ex- penditure. Let us, therefore, draw an average from the accounts of the five years, as they have been exhibited by adminiftration. Produce of permanent £. £. taxes for five years 65,303,877 •Land and Malt Taxes, at 2,558,0001. per annum - 12,790,000 Gains on the Lottery for five years - 1,212,692 5)79,306,569 Average - 15,861,313 Expenditure, adding 190,0001. for two years Militia - 79,274,923 Brought ( 3* ) £- £- Brought over 79,274,923 15,861,313 Deduct fecret fervice Money - - 187,000 5)79,087,923 Average - 15,817,584 Remainder - 43,729 Out of this fum of forty-three thoufand (even hundred and twenty-nine pounds, the annual mil- lion is to be provided. I entreat that your Lord- fliips will be pleafed to advert to the ground on which I have formed this eftimate. I have given the amount which flowed from each head of ufual yearly produce, juft as it is flated from the Ex- chequer. I have made no deduction from the re- ceipt for 190,000!. evidently anticipated on the rum duties in 1790. The rum, on its importa- tion, pays no duty; it is lodged in the King's warehoufe ; the merchant takes it out by quanti- ties as there is demand for it; and, in proportion as he takes it out, he pays the impofl. Patt of the provision to defray the expence of the late armament was an additional duty on rum, to take place in January 1791. The Act impofing this duty palled in November 1790; in confequence, every merchant who had rumftored, took it out in the enfuing month to efcape the new tax. I called for the return of the duty paid upon rum in laft ( 33 ) lad December, and in the correfponding month of the former year. The duty of laft December, on that article, exceeded the former by above 1 90,0001. This is, evidently, an anticipation of part of the income of 1 79 1 ; becaufe, in the ordi- nary courfe, the rum would not have been taken out till after January 1791, when the 190,0001. would have flood part of the income of that year. In like manner on the expenditure fide, I have not made any addition in refpect of the 250,0001. the payment of which was deferred in 1786; al- though it is plain, that in a calculation for future years, four quarters payment of intereft on the pub- lic debt muft be computed in each year ; and I have deducted 187,000k the fum lent abroad, be- caufe I fuppofe it to be included in the expendi- ture, under the head of Secret Service Money; and as I do not reckon the fum in the income, the employment of it fhould not be charged in the outgoings. I know that an average drawn from the five years has been oppofed, upon the profeflcd plea, that the firft of thofe five years fe 1 remarkably fhort in point of income; and that the fecond, likewife, was ftill below what had been the ex- pectation. It may be the intereft of a Minifter to inflate the appearance of the finances under his management ; but it never can be the intereft of your Lordlhips, or of the public, to embrace any felf-delufion on fo momentous a fubject. If thofe two years were inferior in income, to what F may, ( 34 ) may, hereafter, be fairly expected ; let it be re- membered, on the other hand, that the latter years have been attended with circumftances of advantage, which muft be confidered as acci- dental and tranfitory. A part of Europe has been engaged in war ; other powers have been convul- fed with internal troubles; and, in others, the acti- vity of commercial enterprife has been checked by the apprehenfion of fimilar diftreffes. Enjoying the inappreciable bleflings of a peace, which I hope we fli all not wantonly caft away, we have drawn emolument from the difficulties of all thole na- tions. We have either directly fupplied the wants, againtl which thole countries had not lei- fure to provide by their own exertions, or we have had the factorage on all the mercantile intercourfe of the better part of Europe. The adventitious increafe to your income from cafualties, fuch as I have ftated, will be wholefomely balanced (if we are in earned in our fearch for a juft ground of expectation) by thofe deficiencies, which, ha- ving occurred once, may occur again. It is evident that a war muft materially affect thofe fources of affluence, whence this nation has latterly been able to pay fuch prodigious fums into the Exchequer ; and many other incidents may be imagined that would fimilarly reduce the amount ol income. You cannot then, upon this ground, expect that your receipt fhall, after the annual charges are paid, furnifh you with the million clef* tinrd to the diminution of the National Debt. And this view of the fubjed is confined by the obvious C 35 ) cbvious confideration, that many of the fountains which have fupplied the deficiency of your annual refources during the five years are entirely ex- hausted. Of thefe, indeed, the army favings, and repayment of intereft monies, are the only ones which might bear the appearance of promifing a future fupply ; when their nature is examined, the hope will vanifh : they were the confequen- ces of a war; on the great fcale of which immenfe funis were advanced upon account. The reduc- tion which immediately on the peace took place in all your warlike eftablifhments, precluded the application of much of this money in every depart- ment. The individuals in office, to whom the fums were iffued, on making up their accounts with Go--* vernment, have returned fuch portions of the mo- ney as were not demanded for the fupply of their refpeclive branches of fervice; but they returned them once for all. Having paid in their balances, they have nothing more to pay on that fcore; nor are they likely to contract new debts. You have reftricted your eftablifhments, and have meafured accordingly, the fums allotted for their fup* port* The fource of fupply from favings or repay- ment of imprefl money, at leaft, to any amount, flops here, unlefs the calamity of anew war mould befall us ; or extenlive and repeated armaments fhould leave fomething to be gleaned towards ordinary fervices, from that which the nation (hall have granted for indifpenfable extraordinary Jprovinons. The eftablifhment of a fund, which F % has ( 36 ) has ferved fo well in fupporting the appearance of the five years, would not be very falutarily pur* chafed on fuch terms. In fact, the Minifler has been aware of the conclufion that mufl flow from fuch a meafure- ment as I have made ; and to guard againfl it he has reforted to an expedient of a mod extraordinary nature. He has given you an eflimate of your expenditure for the time to come. An eflimate which I confidently fay, is conflructed on no other principle than that on its comparifon with the afiured income it (hall leave a furplus. It does not even affect to give a reafbninjuftification of its limits ; and it fets at defiance all regard to pafl experience. Obferve the detail : — The average expenditure of the Navy, £. for the lafl five years, exclufive of the Armaments which are feparately provided for is - 2,289,907 The eflimate now prefented is - 2,000,000 Difference 289,907 The average of the Army for the five years is - - 1,880,355 The eflimate is - 1,748,842. Difference 131,511 The ( 37 ) The average of Ordnance for the five £. years is - 461,668 The eftimate is - - 375,000 Difference 56,668 The average of the five years for mif- cellaneous Services, exclufive of the Loyalists is - - 269,450 The eftimate is - - 128,416 . Difference 141,034 Thus, there is in all near 650,0001. difference between that expenditure which experience warns you to apprehend, and that which is now arbitra- rily affumed. I afk, upon what rational founda- tion is this eftimate offered to you by the Minif- ter r I fay, by the Minifter, becaufe the Members of the Committee have diftinctly declared that they did not think the ground on which that eftimate was formed, a matter within their cognizance. They conceived their province to extend no far- ther than to the companion of fuch documents a> were furniflied to them by the Minifter ; holding the amount ftated in thofe documents reflectively, a matter for which the Minifter alone was refpon- fible. In this, thofe Gentlemen undoubtedly judged well; becaufe, according to the conftruc- tion of the Committee, they had not the means of examining the particulars which conftituted the ■z feveral ( ss ) feveral fums. And, in truth, the fervic'e which they did undertake was fufficiently laborious, and entitled them fully to the applaufe of the public for the induftry and ability of their inveftigation. A more perfpicuous (latement upon fo intricate a iubject has never been prefented to any nation. Ir is in the data alone, for which the Committee is not refponfible, that any error can lurk. I have already charged error againft fome of thofe data ; I now advance my apprehenlion of it with regard to this eftimate. In the year 1786, the Com- mittee, upon as wide a view of documents as thofe which have lately been fubmitted .for infpection, estimated your future expenditure at 14,478,181]. The calculation was arraigned as a wild and arbi- trary fpeculation : it was, however, pertinaciously maintained. After an experience of five years it is abandoned; but it is not abandoned in favour oi the fcale which the experience of the live years might have fubftantiated, A new eftimate is ob- truded upon your credulity, refling upon the fame fpecies of vague afTumption as that of 1786; not- withstanding a mortifying refutation of all the pre- dictions on the fubject, now forces you to admit an error in the fuppofition of the Committee of 1786, to the amount of above a million yearly on an average, or of near a million and a half in the lait year. And what is the motive that impels the Minifter to give into this delufion ? It is, that, having pinned the fame of his ma- nagement on the production of a million an- nual ( 39 ) nual furplus : the million muft, at all events, ap- pear to be forth-coming. Had the average ex- penditure of the five years been meafured againft the average revenue of the three beft of thofe years, which the Committee take as the baiis for future expectation, it muft have appeared at once that the furplus million would not exift. The average revenue of the three laft years was 16,030,2861. The average expenditure of the five years, deducting the charge for the Loyalifts, which the Lottery is fuppofed to anfwer, and de- ducting the 187,0001. fecret fervice money, amounts to 15,560,709. Obferve that this ex- penditure does not include the million applied an- nually towards liquidating the debt ; therefore, the revenue would exceed the expenditure by no more than 469,5771. Were the eftimate of the expenditure to be taken from the average of the laft three years, as has been done with regard to the income, the balance would be (till fmaller, becaufe, unfortunately, your expenditure feems to have increafed in proportion as your income aug- mented. I will then fay to thofe who bring for- ward the prefent eftimate, " Do you really mean " to condemn your own management of the pub~ ' ' lie treafures for fiv^ years, by dating, as the ex- (i tent of that which the public fervice can require, " a fum fo much fliort of that, which you have ac- £c tually lavilhed?" For, the difference between what has been annually expended during the five years, and that which we are told will be fufficient for ( 40 ) for the public fervice, is no lefs than five hundred and eighty -one thoufand one hundred and thirty- one pounds yearly. But, my Lords, the circum- ilanee which mod completely overturns this etli- mate, is- the conduct of the Minifter with regard to the fupplies for the current year. The report in which this eflimate is ufhered to the public was not yet dry from the prefs, when the Minifter him- felf exploded the cftimate by the amount of fupply which he demanded for the ordinary fervice of the year 1791. For the Navy he requires 2,131, coo). For the Army 1,853,000!. For the Ordnance 443,ocol. For Mifcellaneous fervice, exclufive of American Loyalifts 2 6o,oool. making, in the whole, after a deduction of 76,0001. to be repaid by the Eaft India Company, 4,612,000!. This js 360,000!. above the eflimate, which fcarcely a fortnight before he had offered to the nation, as. defcribrng the probable future expenditure under thefe heads. You will remark, that this demand is for the ordinary fervices, and has no relation to v .hc exifting armament; under the provifion fSr svfoich one might rather fufpeel fome portion of the excelfive charge for ordinary fervices would be fmothered. Yet one may doubt, whether, even by this demand, adequate provifion has been made for the feveral fervices ; as each of the arti- cles falls fhort of the correfpondent article taken ?n the average of the five years. In the article of mifcellaneous fervices, efpecially, there is reafon to look forward to a heavier charge. On the aver- age ( 4t ) rage of five years, the lottery has not anfwered the expence of the Loyalifts. If that refource conti- nue inadequate, the refidue of their claims muft be otherwife furnifhed under the head of Mifcellane- ous fervices. No proviiion appears to have been, confidered for the completion of Carleton Houfe: a provifion which muft not only be expected, but in common decency deiired, nay, in mere eco- nomy ; otherwife, the fum already granted on ac- count has been waftefully expended on that build- ing. I feel no little pleafure that the report of a Committee of the Houfe of Commons renders it unneceffary for me to enter upon thofe difcuffions on the fubject, which I mould have otherwife thought indifapenfable. Suffice it, that the public has been diftin&ly informed by the Committee, how the money already granted for that building has been applied; that the Prince of Wales never affumed the direction of that fum appropriated to- wards the completion of an edifice, which (though the refidence of his Royal Highnefs) is the pro- perty of the King ; but caufed the architect to draw for the money as it was required, accounting for the expenditure to his Majefty's Board of Works. The object of that grant being to render the habitation becoming for the Heir Apparent of the Crown, it is to be conceived that the purpofe will not be dropped in the middle. If we wifh, really, to form a juft idea of what are likely to be our out- goings, we cannot but look forward to this among many other impending expences, for G which ( 4- ) which po allowance appears to have been made in the calculation. It may now he afked, what is the view and ob- ject of all this detail ? For, if no fuggellion that may be of public advantage is to be deduced from it, your Lordfhip's time has been unprofitably em- ployed in liftening to the ftatement. Surely, however, an inference of immediate importance prefents itfelf irrefiftibly : I mean the neceffity of adopting fome principle of real and not orienta- tions economy, which fnall flop the growth ot your expences, if not reduce them. For it is a lamentable confideration, that, in proportion as your income has been augmented by the imposi- tion of new taxes, or a (meter exaction of old ones, your expenditure, alio, has increafed. In i 7 86, a tax to produce ioo,oool. annually was all that was held out as neceflary to eniure a million furplus in each year. Year alter year new bur- dens have been laid on the country, and the pro- posed effect is not yet Secured. The caule is obvi- ous; you let out with a plan of reflricting your ex- pences to 14,478,181!. annually; but, in the very next year you exceed that eftimate by more than twelve hundred thoufand pounds; and, in this laft ye ir you have exceeded it above a million and a half, l^fad the expenditure been kept down, and the income proved inadequate to produce the mil- li >n towards reducing the debt, the impofition ot freih taxes would have been accounted for to the fa tit faction ( 43 ) fatisfaction of every man. For there can be but one opinion as to the neceffity of endeavouring to diminifh the debt ; though there may be much difference of fentiment, whether the prefent plan for affecting that object be the bed that could have been adopted. To anatomize that plan, though not foreign to the prefent difcuffion, would lead me into too great extent. It is fufficient to have fhown, from the documents of Minifters, as I truft I have fliown, that you have made little pro- grefs in your undertaking; and that you are not likely to make a much greater without a pofitive and ferious reduction in your current expences. It is not the difappointment alone or the dangers of delay that are to be lamented; but the plan is attended with inconveniences that would render it highly objectionable, were there not a rational profpect of real advantage to refult from it. In order to keep up the appearance of furpluffes in the Exchequer, a thoufand little expedients mud be retorted to, ruinous to the individuals upon whom they apply : I mean the retardment of payments to the dalles of men whofe neceffities molt require punctuality of fupply ; loyalifts, half-pay officers, penfioners, fervantsof the State in all the different branches of employment, whofe allowance from the public is their only fupport. Another evil of the fcheme is, the delufion in which it holds the public with refpe