CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION CIRCULAR 378 FEBRUARY, 1948 COMMERCIAL HEAD LETTUCE ECONOMIC STATUS 1947 SIDNEY HOOS and H. FISK PHELPS " 12 11 h >• 10 9 h 8 7 6 5 3 - 2 - HEADS OF LETTUCE* CONSUMED PER PERSON PER YEAR 1921 1923 1924 1926 1927 1929 1930 1932 1933 1935 Yearly average from commercial production THE COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY rnia's Place in the Industry Acreage . . . planted to commercial head lettuce in the United States reached an all-time high in 1946. California's industry continues to dominate, with about 60 per cent of the country's total acreage. Seasonal Types of lettucjtfhave shifted little over the years, showing only a small increase of early-srjjjrrf^^tufce at the expense of the winter type. California is the leading producers sonal types ex Yield per acre varies wid better yields of winter and summer lettuce vested yields of early-spring and fall type ettuce. ear. California now has producing states; har- Production ... of commercial head lettuce has steadily increased over the years in spite of fluctuations in acreage and yield. California's expansion leads the country. Average production in California in the years 1920-1924 was about 5 million crates; in 1947 it was 22.7 million crates. Shipments . . . from California each year since 1935 have been about 70 per cent of the country's commercial movement. Consumption . . of com consumers' income, particu ttuce is strongly affected by the level of and middle income brackets. Farm Prices . . of Calil^r^H^Tetece^yer the years have reflected a strongly stable level. During the war, f armSpricfes ofj^ttuce did not increase as much as prices of most truck crops or fresh fruirs; but since the war they have tended to stay up better than prices of some other vegetables and fruits. The Outlook . . for the commercial lettuce industry cannot be forecast with cer- tainty because of the very nature of the crop. Figures show that the trend of California production is upward even in periods of declining acreage, thus indicating a gradu- ally increased yield per acre. Should the yield be mainta^n^at^tspresent level, there- fore, additional acreage would undoubtedly result in ^or^iprodietion. In the event of such record production, farm prices in the state cpr^ b^ grna^tarr^ed only if con- sumer demand continues to increase. The Authors: Sidney Hoos is Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, and Associate Economist in the Experiment Station and on the Giannini Foun- dation. H. Fisk Phelps is Associate in the Experiment Station and Associate on the Giannini Foundation. COMMERCIAL HEAD LETTUCE ECONOMIC STATUS 1947 Sidney Hoos and H. Fisk Phelps ACREAGE TRENDS California leads in nation's lettuce acreage with 60 per cent of total . . . Arizona's increase in recent years places that state second The trend of commercial lettuce acreage in the United States is dominated by Cali- fornia's acreage. This state— by far the outstanding lettuce producer— has more lettuce acreage than any other state. As early as 1920-1924, California ac- counted for over half (52 per cent) of the country's total commercial lettuce acre- age. This proportion was maintained and then later increased, so that by 1947 Cali- fornia had 61 per cent of the country's total acreage. The greatest expansion in lettuce acreage, in other states as well as California, occurred between the years 1920 and 1934. From 1934 to 1943, when World War II was approaching its peak of activity, lettuce acreage in California varied about a slightly declining trend. The same was true for most other states, but Arizona's acreage followed a slightly rising trend. Figure 1 compares Califor- nia's acreage with that of Arizona, the next state in importance, and with the United States as a whole. Beginning with the heavy expansion of 1944 over 1943 acreage, com- mercial lettuce acreage con- tinued to increase during the war years and reached an all-time high point in 1946. The marked growth of lettuce acreage in this country is indicated by the following comparison of 1946 acreage with that of the average acreage dur- States as a whole increased 348 per cent, and California's acreage increased 417 per cent. Arizona's acreage has shown an even greater increase (2,250 per cent) ; that state, which was hardly in the picture as a lettuce producer some twenty-five years ago, now is second only to Cali- fornia in amount of commercial lettuce acreage. Seasonal Types The extent to which commercial lettuce acreage in this country is distributed, ac- cording to predominant seasonal types, is indicated in figure 2. The distribution of this country's commercial lettuce acreage, between the major seasonal types, has been remarkably stable over the years. Only two significant shifts have occurred. During the years between 1920 and 1935, winter lettuce acreage decreased in rela- Figure 1 COMMERCIAL LETTUCE ACREAGE IN THE UNITED STATES, CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA ing 1920-1924: the United y .-United States y .../ to Q Z < 10 / ' . x/ I' Z to U •** •••*•••••« •••* i 1920-24 25-29 30"34 35"39 K5 YEAR AVERAGES-H 1940 1942 1943 1944 ANNUAL 1946 H [3] SHIFTS IN ACREAGE OF VARIOUS SEASONAL TYPES Seasonal type California Arizona Other states 1920-1924 1946 1920-1924 1946 1920-1924 1946 Per cent Winter 52 26 22 24 26 21 29 49 51 47 53 21 11 9 47 12 5 Early spring 13 Late spring 22 Summer 28 Fall 32 tive importance, whereas early-spring let- tuce acreage increased correspondingly. During 1941 and 1942 there was another relative increase of the early-spring acre- age, but in 1943 the proportion dropped back to its prewar level. Except for the shift from winter to early-spring lettuce acreage, which had already developed before World War II, the acreage distri- bution by seasonal types, for the country at large, has changed very little. Further comparisons of the relative magnitudes of lettuce acreage, by sea- sonal types and by major areas, are shown in figure 3, where 1946 acreage is con- trasted with the average of 1920-1924. California is now in a dominant position, except in late-spring lettuce acreage, in which Arizona also is negligible. In fact, Arizona's position is limited to the winter and early-spring seasonal types, but in those two types Arizona's acreage is not THE SEASONAL TYPES OF LETTUCE The annual lettuce season is conveniently broken down into the following marketing periods: winter, early spring, late spring, summer and fall. Al- though there actually is no clear-cut separation of these seasonal types of lettuce, for purposes of convenience as well as reflecting to a great extent production and marketing practices, the following classification has been established : WINTER— acreage planted after September 1, for harvest during December 15-March 15 SPRING— in general, acreage planted prior to March 1 for harvest until Julyl EARLY-SPRING— planted during January for harvest to May 1 LATE-SPRING— planted during February for harvest to July 1 SUMMER— acreage planted during the period March 1 -June 1, for harvest during July 1-September 1 FALL— acreage planted between June 1 and September 1, for harvest after September 1 Except for the central coastal area, production in California producing areas is largely limited to one of the seasonal periods. [4] Figure 2 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF UNITED STATES COMMERCIAL LETTUCE ACREAGE, AS PER CENT OF TOTAL ACREAGE 100 wfmfmammimm^mmmmmfmrfmmfamammfmmfm^^ Fall 1920-24 25-29 30"34 35"39 1940 h-5 YEAR AVERAGES-*! The figure above shows the remarkable stability of this country's acreage in the dis- tribution among major sea- sonal types. At right is shown Califor- nia's dominant position in acreage of all but late-spring type. 70 Q 50 < o 40 Figure 3 COMMERCIAL LETTUCE ACREAGE IN CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA AND ALL OTHER STATES BY SEASONAL TYPES 30 10 WINTER SUMMER FALL EARLY LATE SPRING SPRING 1920-24 1946 1920-24 1946 1920-24 1946 I920"24 1946 I920"24 1946 AV. AV. AV. AV. AV. much less than that of California. Where- as California had no summer lettuce acre- age of importance in 1920-1924, the state's acreage of that type now is greater than all other states combined. The summary table on page 4 presents information similar to figure 3, but in percentage terms for comparison of Cali- fornia acreage, with that of Arizona and other states. [5] CALIFORNIA ACREAGE State leads in all seasonal types except late-spring . . . Largest plantings are fall variety . . . Winter type grown almost exclusively in Imperial Valley Foregoing comments and charts help to indicate California's position in the commercial lettuce industry of the coun- try, and the extent to which the state's position has changed during the past quarter-century. With such a background, we can now give more attention to Cali- fornia itself. The trends in California lettuce acreage are shown, by seasonal types, in figure 4. Of the five seasonal types of lettuce noted in the above table, California produces all extensively except the late-spring type. From figure 4, it is evident that acreage in the state reached its prewar peak during 1930-1934. Thereafter, acreage tended to decline through 1943, but rose sharply in the following years and in 1946 reached an all-time high. Spring lettuce acreage has tended to vary, over time, more than the other seasonal types. Winter lettuce acreage was fairly constant from 1935- 1939 through 1945, and although there was substantial expansion of acreage in 1946, the peak of 1930-1934 was not re- gained. At present, fall lettuce acreage is the largest in the state, with spring lettuce acreage a close second. Winter and sum- mer lettuce acreage follow, in importance, in that order. Since the present amount of acreage does not vary markedly be- tween the major seasonal types, as it did in 1920-1924, there is now more stability throughout the year in cutting and ship- ping. Seasonal Shifts In contrast with the 1920-1924 period when winter lettuce acreage accounted for slightly over half of the state's total acre- age, winter lettuce acreage now repre- sents less than a quarter of the state's total. Spring lettuce acreage has varied between a fourth and a third of the total, and in 1946 was about the same proportion as Figure 4 CALIFORNIA COMMERCIAL LETTUCE ACREAGE BY SEASONAL TYPES 140 1920-24 25-29 30-34 35"39 --5 YEAR AVERAGES-*- 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 ANNUAL 1945 1946 [6] in 1920-1924. Summer lettuce acreage, which was negligible in 1920-1924, grew sharply so that it now amounts to about 20 per cent of the state's total acreage. Except for 1942, when the proportion of summer lettuce dropped to 16 per cent, it has been about 20 per cent since 1940. In comparison with the other seasonal types, fall lettuce acreage has been most stable as a proportion of the total acre- age amounting to about 30 per cent in recent years. The marked expansion in California lettuce acreage since 1943 was accom- panied by a fairly stable percentage distri- bution between the major seasonal types. During the past three years, spring and fall lettuce acreage of the state each have approached about 30 per cent, and winter and summer lettuce acreage each have averaged about 20 per cent of the state's total acreage. District Acreage Commercial lettuce acreage in Califor- nia is located in various parts of the state, but is concentrated in several major dis- tricts. The Salinas-Watsonville-Hollister district and the Imperial Valley are the dominant acreage-and-producing areas, although other areas—such as San Joaquin Valley and part of the Central Coast- have significant acreage. The statistical supplement to this report presents de- tailed data on the minor as well as the major lettuce areas of the state. But in this report, the Salinas and Imperial Val- ley districts are considered separately, with the remaining areas grouped to- gether as "others." The district acreage trends, shown sep- arately for the major seasonal types, are summarized in figure 5. The figure makes clear the extent to which the lettuce acreage of California is concentrated in the Salinas-Watsonville-Hollister district. There, spring and fall acreage were of about the same magnitude in 1946, with each approximately 25 per cent greater than the summer acreage. The Imperial Valley district acreage is primarily of the winter seasonal type, and is about of the same magnitude as the rest of the state, excluding the Salinas- 140 Figure 5 CALIFORNIA COMMERCIAL LETTUCE ACREAGE BY MAJOR DISTRICTS AND SEASONAL TYPES 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 [7 Watsonville-Hollister district. The remain- ing acreage in the state, grouped as "others" in figure 5. includes spring, summer, and fall seasonal types, with the spring and fall types each exceeding the summer seasonal type. Thus, only Im- perial Valley has significant commercial lettuce acreage of the so-called "winter" seasonal type. The percentage distribu- tion of the state's commercial lettuce acre- age, and the changes which have occurred during the past decade, are shown below. DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL LETTUCE ACREAGE District and seasonal type Year 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 Per cent of State total Imperial Valley : Winter 19.2 22.0 17.0 22.1 20.3 23.7 Salinas-Watsonville and Hollister : Spring 63.7 24.2 18.0 21.5 59.3 24.3 14.6 20.4 60.3 19.3 16.4 24.6 58.8 25.0 12.8 21.0 59.5 17.5 17.4 24.6 55.4 19.3 Summer 16.4 Fall 19.7 Others : 17.1 6.1 3.8 7.2 18.7 7.1 5.0 6.6 22.7 9.7 5.1 7.9 19.1 9.6 3.4 6.1 20.2 8.2 4.7 7.3 20.9 Spring 7.3 Summer 5.0 Fall 8.6 PRODUCTION AND YIELD Production has steadily increased over the years in spite of fluctuations in acreage . . . Higher yield has served to keep production up The increase of commercial lettuce pro- duction in the United States is pictured in figure 6, which shows the production trends separately for the United States as a whole, California, and Arizona. After a sharp increase from 1920-1924 to 1925-1929, United States production continued to expand at a moderate rate until 1943. But with the sharp increase of 1944 production over 1943, and with an- other substantial increase in 1946, the country's annual production reached al- most the equivalent of 34 million western crates (about 70 pounds each), or about three and one half times the average an- nual output during 1920-1924. Produc- tion in 1947 was 34.2 million crates, or slightly higher than in 1946. Most of this country's increase in com- mercial lettuce production is accounted for by the expansion in California. Dur- ing 1920-1924, the average annual pro- duction in California was about 5 million crates. During the next five years, the state's production more than doubled. The consistent and steadily expanded out- put through 1943 was followed by a marked growth, so that in 1947 Califor- nia's production of about 22.7 million crates amounted to four and one half times the state's average output during 1920-1924. Although production in states other than California has increased over the years, its increase in terms of crates pro- duced has been much less than Califor- nia's increase. Furthermore, the large expansion in the country's commercial lettuce production since 1943 is due, pri- marily, to the expansion in California. [8] Arizona's production has steadily in- creased over the years, and that state now ranks next to California. Distribution of Types The distribution of United States com- mercial production of lettuce, by sea- sonal types, is shown in figure 7. Between 1920-1924 and 1930-1934, the percent- age of total production accounted for by winter lettuce decreased sharply, but the production of both fall and summer let- tuce increased correspondingly. During the past decade, there have been no sig- nificant shifts between the relative volume of the seasonal types produced in the country as a whole. The long-time shifts which have occurred have brought a de- crease in winter type from 38.7 per cent of the total as an annual average in the years 1920-1924 to 25.4 per cent of the total in 1947. Spring lettuce has increased By 1946 commercial lettuce production had reached 34 million crates, or three and one half times the 1920-24 average annual output. Figure 6 COMMERCIAL LETTUCE PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES, CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA 40 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 -24 -29 -34 "39 | 5 YEAR AVERAGES U ANNUAL >►] The figure at right shows the significant increase in all seasonal types since 1920-24. Seasonal production is less concentrated now in winter lettuce. Figure 7 UNITED STATES COMMERCIAL LETTUCE PRODUCTION BY SEASONAL TYPES WINTER [9 from 27.9 to 30 per cent of the total; sum- mer type has increased from 15.4 to 22.2 per cent, and fall type from 18.0 to 22.4 per cent. Thus, the seasonal production is less concentrated now in winter lettuce and is more evenly distributed throughout the major seasons. California Production California's commercial production of lettuce, as summarized in figure 8, was characterized by a sharp growth in all seasonal types until 1925-1929. There- after and until 1943, the winter and spring seasonal types remained largely stable in production while the output of summer and fall grew consistently. Dur- ing the past four years, however, produc- tion expanded sharply in winter lettuce grown in the Imperial Valley, and less sharply, but still substantially, in the other seasonal types grown in other parts of the state. SHIFTS BETWEEN SEASONAL TYPES IN CALIFORNIA 5- Year averages Annual Seasonal type 1920-1924 1925-1929 1930-1934 1944 1945 1946 1947 Thousands of crates Winter 2,228 1,536 1,237 4,379 2,620 952 2,824 3,556 2,943 2,274 3,805 4,200 4,240 4,809 5,280 4,664 4,236 5,088 5,177 6,048 4,303 6,008 5,808 5,265 Spring (Early) 5,032 Summer Fall 6,160 6,237 25 Figure 8 CALIFORNIA COMMERCIAL LETTUCE PRODUCTION BY SEASONAL TYPES 1920 -24 1925 1930 1935 -29 -34 -39 YEAR AVERAGES-*- 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 « ANNUAL *H [10] Harvested Yields In the commercial production of let- tuce, harvested yield per acre has tended to change fairly widely from year to year. This has been so in other states as well as in California. Figure 9 gives a comparative picture of commercial harvested lettuce yields in California, by seasonal types and in con- trast with Arizona and the average of other states. For winter lettuce, the yield in California dropped sharply from 191 crates per acre during 1920-1924 to a low point of 102 crates per acre during 1930-1934. The winter lettuce yield then rose for the next several years and dropped again in 1941. But thereafter, the yield rose for four consecutive years and reached a peak for California in 1945. In both 1946 and 1947, the average yield was less than in 1945. In contrast, the yield of winter lettuce in Arizona has generally been less than in California, especially since 1942. During the World War II period, when the yield of Califor- nia winter lettuce increased substantiall) . Arizona's yield of winter lettuce varied about a level trend. With respect to the harvested yield of early-spring lettuce, California and Ari- zona have had about the same experience. As may be seen in the upper right panel of figure 9, early-spring lettuce yields in both states have followed the same trend, with California's yield exceeding in some years but Arizona's yield being somewhat higher in most years. Both states had an increased yield in 1947, with California's average yield equalling the 1943 high. In the production of summer lettuce, California's harvested yield and that of other states were similar up to 1941. Since 1942, California's yield has been much higher while that of the other states has remained at its earlier level. The state's 1947 yield was the highest on record for its summer lettuce. The yield of fall lettuce in California fell sharply during the early 1920's, sim- ilar to what happened in the winter and early-spring seasonal types. But there- Figure 9 YIELD PER ACRE OF COMMERCIAL LETTUCE BY SEASONAL TYPES FOR SELECTED STATES 270 l 1 1 I I l I 1 1 1 1 1 270 1920 1930 -24 -34 5 YR. AVERAGES-* I 1940 1942 1944 1946 1920 1930 I "24 -34 ANNUAL H 5 YR. AVERAGES 1942 1944 -ANNUAL [11] after, California's yield of fall lettuce fol- lowed an upward trend until 1943 when it tended to level out. Although the yield of fall lettuce in other states decreased substantially from 1920 until 1941, it recovered in subsequent years and in 1945 was slightly higher than the Cali- fornia yield and only slightly lower in 1946 and 1947. In the production and harvesting of all seasonal types of lettuce, California in 1947 had considerably better yields than the competing producing states. Opposing Trends Commercial lettuce acreage and pro- duction have followed broadly similar long-time trends since 1920. Important differences, however, are apparent dur- ing the period from the early 1930's until 1943. In that period, acreage in the United States as a whole tended to decrease slightly, and decreased more strongly in California. Arizona acreage grew a little, but in contrast with the reduced over-all acreage, production con- tinued to increase not only for the country at large but also in California. The oppo- site trends in acreage and production from the early 1930's until 1943, may be accounted for by generally increased yields during that period. With some shifting from less to more intensive cul- tivation, associated with improved pro- duction techniques, the resulting increase in output per acre more than offset the fewer number of acres worked. After 1943, the heavily expanded production was due more to increased acreage than yield per acre. But in 1947, increased yields just about offset the decreased acreage, so production was only slightly greater than in 1946. The differing trends in California let- tuce acreage, production, and yield are brought together in figure 10 where the average of 1935-1939 is considered as 100 per cent for each of the series. The figure shows how California production has increased consistently over the years, Figure 10 200 180 160 O 140 o ■ 8 120 m 2 100 3 80 oc m °- 60 40 20 CALIFOR NIA LETTUCE PRODUCTION, ACREAGE AND YIELO (1935-39 = 100) \ *•• Product Yield -^ /\ / J i \ X/" — h jr* 21 Ac reage— ^ 1 • V 1920- 24 Av. 1925- 29 Av. 1930 - 34 Av. 1935" 39 Av. 1940 1942 1944 1946 « 5 YEAR AVERAGES — >\+ ANNUAL [12] even in the face of declining acreage from 1930-1934 through 1943. Although yields during the past several years have been under the 1943 peak, they have been about 15 per cent above the 1940-1942 level, and almost 40 per cent above their 1935-1939 average. With the mainte- nance of yields at their recent levels, additional California acreage planted to lettuce will result in record production. Under such developments, farm prices in the state would be subject to a depress- ing influence. Whether an actual decline in price would develop then would de- pend upon the level of consumers' de- mand reflected by their disposable money income. Hence, in the face of expanding production, farm returns can be main- tained only if consumer demand con- tinues to increase. TRENDS IN SHIPMENTS California accounts for 70 per cent of country's commercial movement . . . Increase is largely in winter shipments A significant measure of California's relative position in the commercial lettuce industry of the country is the proportion of total carlot shipments originating in the state. Each year since 1935, Cali- fornia has shipped almost 70 per cent of total carlot interstate shipments in the United States. During 1930-1934, the proportion increased from 67 to 77 per cent, but percentage declined to 67 per cent in 1935 and since then has exceeded 70 per cent only in 1936 (71 per cent) and 1939 (72 per cent). The average percentage since 1940 has been 68 per cent. California Shipments Figure 11 outlines the course of carlot shipments of lettuce from California since 1930. The data include boat shipments, converted to carlot equivalents. But the figures reflect only shipments out of the Figure 11 CALIFORNIA CARLOT SHIPMENTS OF COMMERCIAL LETTUCE BY DISTRICTS 50 40 CO Q z < CO 2 30 CO §20 10 Total Shipments :•: Salinas -Watsonville - Holhster * •.•.■.■.■.•.■.-.•. Ol—i r — 1 T 1940 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 "About six per cent are shipments from other coast areas. [13] 1942 1944 1946 state; carlot or truck movements within the state are not included in the shipment data which, therefore, understate the total movement. However, the trend of total movement is similar to the trend for interstate shipments. During the depression years of the early 1930's, lettuce shipments declined, but after 1934 shipments resumed their upward trend. The out-of-state movement grew moderately through 1943. Begin- ning with the large increase of 1944 over 1943. shipments during the past several years have greatly exceeded earlier years. Influence of Winter Crop With few exceptions, shipments origi- nating in the Salinas-Hollister-Watsonville area followed the same course as total shipments from the state. The heavily ex- panded shipments since 1943 were in- fluenced largely by increased movement of winter lettuce from the Imperial Valley. The extent to which the shipments from Salinas-Hollister-Watsonville and the Im- perial Valley areas dominate the state's total movement is further indicated in the following table. Although the Salinas-Hollister-Watson- ville area movement still dominates the state's shipments, since 1941 the Imperial Valley and the other producing areas have become relatively more important and are tending to regain the relative position they held in the late 1920's and early 1930's. There have developed some shifts, dur- ing the past fifteen years, in the monthly or seasonal distribution of California's proportion of the country's total carlot shipments. California's proportion of total shipments of winter lettuce is now about 60 per cent compared with 75 per cent fifteen years ago. Early spring (50 per cent) and late spring (80 per cent) account for nearly the same proportions of total shipments. For summer lettuce the California proportion of 90-95 per cent has increased only slightly. Fall let- tuce, however, has experienced a decline over the years of from 78 per cent to 50 per cent. For the individual months, the proportions have tended to fluctuate widely and to follow no clear cut pattern. As well as shifts in the proportion of total shipments originating in California, there have been shifts in the monthly distribution of California carlot ship- ments. Such shifts are summarized in the table on page 15. PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN, BY AREAS, OF CALIFORNIA LETTUCE SHIPMENTS— INTERSTATE Year Central Coast area * including Salinas-Hollister- Watsonville Imperial Valley Rest of California Per cent 1930 1935 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 59.3 78.3 79.7 77.5 76.0 78.4 74.1 70.8 72.7 34.5 18.4 19.8 21.6 23.0 20.1 24.1 26.3 25.1 6.2 3.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.7 1945 2.8 1946 2.2 * The Salinas-Hollister-Watsonville area accounts for about 94 per cent of the Central Coast movement, with the remaining 6 per cent originating in other parts of the Central Coast area. 14 CALIFORNIA LETTUCE: MONTHLY CARLOT SHIPMENTS AS PER CENT OF YEARLY SHIPMENTS Month 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 1945 1946 January . . . February March. . . April May June July August . . . September October November December 10 12 8 8 12 5 7 7 8 9 9 5 8 9 3 8 14 7 10 10 9 9 10 3 Per cent 10 9 2 8 14 6 11 10 10 9 8 3 13 9 2 9 13 8 9 10 9 8 4 6 9 8 7 9 12 7 11 10 10 8 6 3 INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION Lettuce is limited in utilization by consumption only in fresh form . . . Consumer income reflected in lettuce consumption Lettuce is one of a limited number of crops which have only a single form of utilization. Lettuce is consumed only in fresh form, and growers and shippers are not concerned with other types of util- ization, such as canning or drying. Al- though that simplifies the disposition problem, it also limits the alternatives which growers may select after the let- tuce is produced. Either the grower and shipper dispose of the lettuce in fresh form for its ultimate use that way, or they receive no return from it. The marked expansion of commercial lettuce production and shipments is re- flected in a corresponding growth in the consumption of lettuce. This increase in the consumption of lettuce is part of the trend evident in this country during the past several decades. The use of fresh and canned vegetables and fruits, in gen- eral, has shown phenomenal growth in recent years. Figure 12 shows the relative increase in the consumption of lettuce, compared with fresh vegetables as one group and canned vegetables as another group. The comparisons are shown in terms of index numbers, with the average of 1935-1939 as 100 per cent for each of the three series. From 1918 through 1929, lettuce consumption increased relatively more than fresh and canned vegetables. But after 1929 and until 1940, the trend of lettuce consumption followed fairly closely the consumption trends of fresh and canned vegetables in general, dipping during the depression of the 1930's and then rising as economic recovery spread over the country. But during the depres- sion of the 1930's, lettuce consumption did not decline as much as did the con- sumption of canned vegetables. Beginning with 1940, the consumption of lettuce, as well as other fresh vegetables, grew sharply during the World War II period. But the consumption of canned vegeta- bles grew only slightly, due primarily to the tin shortage and the huge demand by the armed forces for the available supply of canned foods. In the postwar years 1946 and 1947, lettuce consumption re- mained very high, exceeding the prewar [15] Figure 12 INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF LETTUCE, COMPARED WITH FRESH VEGETABLES AND CANNED VEGETABLES 1945 1947 LETTUCE CONSUMPTION PER HOUSEHOLD PER WEEK IN THE UNITED STATES, SPRING, 1942 Annual net income per household All non-farm households Urban households Rural non-farm households Dollars Pounds Pounds Pounds 0-499 500-999 0.46 0.60 0.80 0.96 1.06 1.31 0.93 0.35 0.56 0.75 0.95 1.01 1.12 1.22 1.66 0.98 0.53 0.68 1,000-1,499 0.89 1,500-1,999 . . 0.99 2,000-2,999 1.06 2,000-2,499 2,500-2,999 3,000 and over 3,000-4,999 0.97 5,000-9,999 Average of all income groups 0.80 Consumption Reflects Income The fact that lettuce consumption is directly correlated with income is evi- dent from the preceding comments; the trend of per-capita lettuce consumption generally follows the trend of national income. Further evidence on the relation between lettuce consumption and per- sonal income is available from the sev- eral studies made on the relations between consumer incomes and expenditures. All [16] such studies, in which lettuce was consid- ered as a separate commodity, indicate that generally as consumers' income in- creases their lettuce consumption also increases. Some of the results, pertaining to lettuce, of one of the more recent of such studies are summarized in the tabu- lation on page 16. In the household income groups under $2,000 per year, the consumption of let- tuce by rural non-farm households is greater than the consumption by urban households. But in the income groups exceeding $3,000 per year, the lettuce consumption in urban households is greater than the rural non-farm house- holds. In general, considering the average of all income groups, lettuce consumption in urban households appears to be larger than in rural non-farm households. FARM PRICES Lettuce prices have been strongly stable over the years . . . Have neither increased nor decreased as much as other vegetables and fruits The trend of prices received by Cali- fornia farmers for lettuce is shown in figure 13 which also includes the prices received by United States farmers for fruits and truck crops. The prices are shown as index numbers with the average of 1935-1939 as 100 per cent. In contrast with the farm prices of fruits and truck crops, the California let- tuce farm price series varied about a level trend from 1918 through 1941. There was a recession from the 1929 level to the 1933 low; but the swing was much less than for fruits or truck crops in gen- eral. The 1920 and 1927 farm prices for lettuce were at a lower level than for any year during the depression of the early 1930's. Beginning with the 1942 season, lettuce prices rose sharply along with those of other products. But lettuce prices did not rise relatively as high as did the prices of fruits or truck crops as a group. The wartime peak of lettuce farm prices, as well as of other truck crops, was 280 Figure 13 FARM PRICES OF CALIFORNIA LETTUCE, UNITED STATES TRUCK CROPS AND FRUIT (1935-39 = 100) reached in 1943, but farm prices for fruits continued to rise through 1946. California farm prices of lettuce, by seasonal types, have followed the same general course, but there have been marked differences in the prices received by farmers for the several seasonal types. No single seasonal type of lettuce has consistently reflected prices above those of the other seasonal types. The wartime peaks occurred in 1942 for summer and fall lettuce, and in 1943 for winter and early-spring lettuce. For all seasonal types, the 1947 farm price was substan- tially above that of 1946, with early spring lettuce showing the greatest in- crease and fall lettuce the smallest increase. Since 1941, year-to-year fluctua- tions have been most pronounced in early spring lettuce and least in fall lettuce. In general, lettuce farm prices during the past three decades did not rise as high nor fall as low as did the prices of truck crops or fruits generally. The farm price trend for lettuce has been remarkably stable over the years, excepting the war period, and even then lettuce prices con- tinued to be more stable than the prices of truck crops, and especially more stable than most fruits. Price Outlook Growers and shippers, as well as con- sumers, are interested in the probable future course of lettuce prices. During more so-called 'normal" periods, esti- mates of the future level of prices may be ventured with some degree of confi- dence. But at present, such forecasts are well-nigh impossible to make confi- dently. In determining the level of lettuce prices, influences such as the current in- flationary trend are now dominant. How- ever, if the prices of truck crops in general do not advance sharply because of unpredictable factors and if there is no sharp break in consumers' income in the very near future (which appears very unlikely), current indications are that 1948 lettuce prices will be not far from those which prevailed in 1947. As to the longer-run view, an important influence will be the level of consumers' disposable money income. Supplement Available The tables and figures appearing in this circular are summaries of more de- tailed tables, which are published in a separate Statistical Supplement in mimeo- graphed form and which give the sources in detail. This statistical supplement may be obtained by writing to the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. 6^m-4,'48(A7387s) 13] The PUBLICATIONS CATALOG is issued once a year. It lists the printed publications on farm sub- jects, which are available to all farmers without charge at the College of Agriculture. If you would like to be placed on the list to receive this catalog without charge, send your name and address to: . PUBLICATIONS OFFICE • COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY 4, CALIFORNIA