The Craft Sinister Books by GEORGE ABEL SCHREINER ''The Iron Ration" {LA DETRESSE ALLEMANDE) "From Berlin to Bagdad" "The Craft Sinister" Harper & Brothers, New York John Momij, London Librairie Hachette, Pari* THE CRAFT SINISTER A Diplomatico-Political History of the Great War and its Causes — Diplomacy and International Politics and Diplomatists as Seen at Close Range by an American Newspaperman who served in Central Europe as War and Political Correspondent. By, GEORGE ABEL SCHREINER Author of "The Iron Ration" (LA DETRESSE ALLEMANDE) "From Berlin to Bagdad," etc. G. ALBERT GEYER Publisher New York City • • -• • • Gi i-v-.; n\< 0^ THE CRAFT SINISTER Copyright, 1920, George A. Schreiner All Rights Reserved Printed in the United States of America Published May, 1920 THE ANCHOR PRESS. Inc. 209 WMt 38Ui Street New YoA City To my dear friends Frieda and John A. BuUinger 50024^ Tu regere imperio populos Romano, memento. Hae tibi erunt artes; pasisque imponere morem, Parcere subjectis, et debellare superbos. —Virgil. INTRODUCTION I AGREE with the reader that it seems nonsensical to add an "Intro- duction" to a book, which already has a "Preface." But in this case something had to be added, and if I have taken recourse to the word "Introduction" it is for no other reason than that this word seemed as good as any other. This manuscript has been making the rounds of publishing houses for a year now. The "Preface" was pre-dated to May 1, 1919. In reality the book was completed two months before that, and repre- sented then the labor of about eight months, not counting three years of work in Central Europe and another year in the United States — time devoted to the study of the subject and the experience that had to be gained. The publishers who had the manuscript were afraid to publish it. One of them had indeed accepted the book and went so far as to place it among his "Announcements" to the book trade. But some- thing went wrong. Another publisher was torn by his emotions" for the space of weeks and finally admitted that it would be "too dangerous for his firm" to publish the book. The man feared the High and Mighty in Washington, and well he might. He was of the opinion that there was involved a public duty, and that he should meet it. "But," he said, "if I get into trouble the public won't thank me." For the man in question I will say that I fully sympathize with him. A few might feel different about it, in case the Most Honorable Burleson denied the mails of the United States to him, but the dear public, that great mass of people which is swayed only by the passions of the day, would, in its fervor to please the Powerful, do little better than boycott his books besides. But it seems wholly useless to go into further details of this sort. Publishing is a business, not a mission, and wise indeed the publisher who keeps this in mind. For not to keep it in mind means that he will not be a publisher for long. I have, then, no quarrel with any publisher. In fact, I sympa- thize with all of them. On the other hand, I must state here what has been stated, if for no other reason, then for the one that here XI XII THE CRAFT SINISTER and there the reader will find that I speak of things and conditions that seem a little anterior now. True enough, I might have changed the text in all such cases, but that could not have been done without interfering seriously with the general aspect of the book and the statements it contains. Recent events have somewhat modified this general aspect — as the public is pleased to believe. That change, however, is merely an apparent one. It is not real in any sense of the word. The fact of today should remain that same fact even tomorrow, and he who views in the light of a subsequent condition the event of yesterday may write an interesting book but not a true one. I wish to state in this connection that most of the facts concern- ing United States diplomatic representatives mentioned in this book are now before the Congress of the United States in the form of a Report, dated October 4, 1919, which Report was necessitated by the conduct toward me of the State Department of the United States, which, for the purpose of protecting the incompetents it had on diplo- matic post in Central Europe, caused my virtual internment arid "black-listing" at home. Of course, the Congress has taken no action as yet. But the State Department has. For the purpose of "shutting up" so dis- agreeable a person, Mr. Lansing, himself, ultimately and personally caused that a passport was issued me, without many of the usual requirements being exacted of me. The State Department felt that in August of 1919 the world was too interested in other troubles than to give attention to things that had taken place almost three years before. It also expected that I would take the passport in lieu of the damages I claimed. In fact it was mistaken. For the Congress I must say, however, that it is still too much occupied with justifying and vindicating its suicidal conduct during the War years to find time for something which would be more honest: A sweeping inves- tigation of the State Department, its diplomatic chiefs and secretaries and its inexplicable un-American policies. I further wish to mention that I have called upon the State Department to defend itself against my charges — to no avail. For a while that was being considered, but, unfortunately for the State Department, nothing could be found that would serve as a pretext to have me brought in contact with the War Acts of our most complacent Congress. After all it would not do to have a person in- carcerated and then run the chance of having his trial on a trumped-up accusation bring out that he for weeks was the real representative of the State Department at Vienna and other points and as such INTRODUCTION XIII prevented the summary dismissal of two ambassadors of the United States and one diplomatic agent. No doubt, that would have been very embarrassing, especially if in connection with that it would have developed that one of these ambassadors was for months, aye, even years, little more than the agent in a Central European state of the Entente governments and conducted his great office of trust accord- ingly. I repeat, that all this would have been most embarrassing. To that alone I owe the freedom of movement which I have had in the last two years. Naturally, the good men in the State Department are averse to having their acts reviewed for the purpose of showing that diplomacy is a "Craft Sinister." They regard the man in the street as the "Layman," who has no right to question the conduct of the Sacer- dotals of Cypher and Code, the High Priests of the Temple of National Avarice, the Sacrificers at the Altar of Blood and Famine. Diplomacy is a Cult. Some look upon it as a necessity. If the latter conclusion were correct we would have to assume that mankind can manage its affairs best by being deceitful. For, in the words of a man who at least in South Africa is immortal : All diplomatists are liars. The sooner the public places those of its affairs now styled "diplomatic" into the realm of decent transactions between national units, the sooner will we come to a period in which wars will be few and far between. And that, naturally, applies to United States diplomacy and diplomatists as much as to any other, more so in fact. With the proper men in Central Europe the government of the United States could have brought the Great War to a close as early as 1916, and again in April of 1917. The citizen here and elsewhere would then have been spared many of the hardships that have come his way. Public debts would be smaller. The world, instead of continuing to tear down for another three years (and the end of that is not yet in isight) would have started to build up again. We would not then have been obliged to see everywhere the fatuous endeavor of the radical who believes that the fine theories of the Socialist philosopher are in reality applicable in a world where any two men hold three opinions, each their own, and one for their community of two. In a few years from now mankind will have returned to that much despised socio-political and socio-economic system at which our ancestors labored so long without finding at all the road to Utopia. From that moment on the old abuses are bound to rear their heads again, and, if nothing is done to check them, our posterity will find that, after all, the Great War was as unproductive of good XIV THE CRAFT SINISTER lessons as the Thirty Years* War or the Convulsions of the Corsican ward politician known as Napoleon Bonaparte. There is at least one good lesson we should take to heart and that is expressed in the words: Curb diplomacy, and if at all passible abolish it. By the way, what has become of "open diplomacy"? Has the Wilson administration practiced it in the least? Now, as before, the public learns only of the diplomatic fait accompli. Of the barter- ing done and the obligations assumed it knows nothing, and will know nothing so long as it does not insist upon being a full-fledged partner to the deals made in regard to its substance and future weal. To this I will add what was formerly an author's note. The might-have-beens of history are like so many eggs that have been scrambled in the making of an omelette — which human endeavor will never restore to the primary place they had in nature — the state of being hatchable. In the course of human events regret is of as little value as the cackling of the hen that sees her eggs broken on the rim of the skillet. The purpose of this book, then, must be sought in another direc- tion. That purpose is threefold. It is the writer's intention to bring to the notice of the public everywhere the dangers of diplomacy, as ** the "art of negotiation" has been practiced hitherto and recently; to point out to the public of the United States in what respects its own diplomacy was found wanting and defective, and, thirdly, to correct a good many false impressions that have been fostered during the Great War and before. Some of the chapters of this book go into the modus operandi of "the craft sinister," and depict its results, while others go more deeply into the nature and methods of diplomatists. Much attention is also given the handmaiden of diplomacy — the press. What cen- sorship was and what it strove to do is made clear — astoundingly clear, I venture to think. A persistent combat on my part with cen- sorship, for three years in warring Europe and two in the warring United States, has put me in position to thoroughly "spotlight" its practices and motives. When left untrammeled the press does well enough, despite the assertions of the chronic uplifter; it becomes the great scourge of man with the moment it passes under control. To draw an accurate and clear picture of diplomacy — the craft sinister — was not possible without removing much of the obscurantism in which government everywhere veils itself, so that the governed may V be the more easily led to subscribe to the theory of governmental infal- . libility. The government which must admit that it can err, and which INTRODUCTION XV must make that admission in times of stress, does not remain a gov- ernment de facto for long thereafter. On the other hand, the public which permits its government to arrogate unto the theory of infalli- bility, a "divine right" in fact, will not thereafter be far from disaster. It is best in life — in all its phases and departments — to look at things as they are, not as we wish them to be. The term diplomacy covers for my purpose the international activity of statesman and envoy alike, and the reader will find that all diplomatic contact in this book is hostile — of sinister mien. This is due to the fact that I deal here only with the political moves and countermoves directly related to, or responsible for, the Great War. It will be noticed that the book hardly admits that diplomacy is other than bad — vile and vicious, and the question will be asked : How can that be ? No doubt, there was a certain amount of decency and fair play in the deals made between members of the same group — Triple Entente and Triple Alliance, but there was no such thing at any time between the groups themselves. In weighing acts and conduct of governments, I have kept in mind that nothing is harder to keep in focus than international relations, a thing that has as many angles and aspects as its constituents have moods and desires. A strictly impartial attitude has been observed in that respect. Contrary to general practice during the Great War, I have accepted Inter- national Law, and applied it here, as something that was to dispense special favors to none. To be sure that would seem rather naive, in the light of what happened under the Orders in Privy Council, but after all we must have something upon which to pin our hope. I have assumed that the powerful criminal is no better than the slinking crook — ^the shameless cynic not more virtuous than the blustering brute. » In war the end justifies the means — that is why we have wars. In diplomacy the purpose hallows the method — that is why we have diplomacy. Let us not forget that so long as we have diplomacy we will have wars. y The favorite device of all governments of the World Power type is: War is the continuation of international relations by other means. Brutal cynicism could not be carried further than it is in this hypocritical phrase of the bully obliged to describe his overt acts. It would seem that there has been little improvement in inter- national relations in the last three thousand years or so. No doubt, such a statement could be rated as being extremely pessimistic, and to guard against that I have incorporated into this book a very small amount of ancient data to reinforce certain assertions I make. There is, for instance, the literal text of the oldest treaty of record, con- cluded between Rameses II and Kheta-sar, king of the Hittites, on Tybi 21st, in the XXIst year of the reign of the Pharaoh in question XVI THE CRAFT SINISTER (November 28th, 1279 B. C), and a charming account of "The Battle of Kadesh," by either a press agent of Rameses II, or some propaganda bureau of the Royal Egyptian Government of Upper and Lower Egypt, Ethiopia, Judea, Arabia and what not. I am sure that the reader will have no difficulty at all seeing the appropriateness of the presence of these rare documents, and his perspective on international contact and relations and war will be further extended and widened by the purely biological and historical, and diplomatico-technical mat- ter placed before him. In regard to the latter I must state that within the space of a single book it was quite impossible to give more than what is absolutely essential to an understanding of things, sys- tems, conditions and policies. Since it is proper that men should acknowledge to whom they owe their information, I must state that in my case thanks are due to many. To give the names of all of them would be impossible for the reason that I would place in jeopardy the interests and welfare of scores — of men who spoke to me of things they were not "sup- posed to know." Wherever it has been possible I have mentioned my authority. To "Historicus" I am obliged for some information on the Balkan subjects treated, and to "The Nation" and Prof. R. C. McGrane, of the University of Cincinnati, for the text of the Sixteenth Century League of Nations. THE AUTHOR. New York, January 25, 1920. PREFACE MUCH has been heard recently of open diplomacy and open covenant, openly arrived at. While the Great War v^as still on, the public of the United States was led to believe that at the Peace Conference all discussion would be done in the limelight of publicity. Yet such was not the case. The Paris Conference was a star chamber proceeding of the worst sort. Only its edicts have become known, despite the promises that had been made, despite the fact that the fate of neutral and foe alike was under treatment. Diplomacy of the old type was again employed. Diplomacy started in again where it had left off — for the good reason that it had never left off. It has been said, and rightly so, that war is a continuation of international relations with other means. In the past diplomacy has used military strength as a means of persuasion in times of peace and as the instrument of coercion in days of war. A diplomacy not backed by a large and efficient military establishment is likely to be a good diplomacy. Instead of force of arms it must employ the force of morality. Good conduct, indeed, is its only argument. It must do as it would be done by. Intrigue and machination may not be indulged in, because in the end there will be no large army and navy to prevent a reckoning or obviate the liquidation of the claims that will be made by thoise who consider themselves injured. The diplomatist of the small nation is obliged to work without the "prestige" that is at once incentive and tool for the activity of the man representing the "World Power." The "small diplomatist" must limit his endeavor to the continuation of good relations. And, as a rule, he succeeds. Unfortunately, the diplomatic representative of the World Power is not in the same position. For all of the things he does, be they good or bad, he has the sanction of what has been termed his country's needs. Expansion in any direction and of any sort is considered an absolute necessity by any large state, and within the frame of that its diplomatists may work and intrigue to heart's content. The as- surance that ultimately a declaration of war will wipe out every mistake he may have made, every questionable practice he has en- gaged in, is to the diplomatist of the World Power the very invitation xvii XVIII THE CRAFT SINISTER to do all those things which the representative of the small state cannot afford to do, except when on the defensive. Nothing has happened so far at Paris that could cause the student of human affairs to believe that diplomacy of the big-power sort has been abandoned. Of course, there are those who would have the public take a different view. Yet the fact is that nothing has been done so far that could cause the initiate in diplomacy and international relations to be at all optimistic. To give a thing a new name is of little consequence, and the poorest sort of anticlimax for a catastrophe that cost the world 7,254,000 of its best lives and about $450,000,000,000 in wealth. There are some conservatives who marvel that so much has been done. The tsensible human being must be astonished that so little has really been accomplished. Mihi cur a futuri! It should not be impossible to live without so-called diplomacy some day. Those who have the welfare of mankind at heart must wish that this day will come soon. But right now this sort of diplo- macy is still with us, and if left to itself it will, before long, again revert to the practices for which it has become truly and deservedly odious. Covenants arrived at may not encourage another sowing \ of secret treaties, but they cannot prevent the making of ententes, nor can they curb those who engage for purposes of their own in the fostering of misunderstanding and hatred between peoples. When Mr. Wilson declared himself opposed to secret diplomacy he evidently had realized to what extent hidden intrigue was responsi- ble for the riot of carnage and destruction that swept over Europe. His many utterances on this subject leave no doubt as to this. Un- fortunately, he was not in a position to change overnight a condition that had prevailed for centuries, nor has he been able to apply to his own relations with foreign governments the valuable lessons history taught him. The fact that the executive with plein pouvoir of a strong nation of 100,000,000 was unable to shape his own diplomatic course so that it might agree with his views, as stated by himself, shows how strong and well entrenched the modern system of diplomacy is. The President of the United States, moreover, was so represented in most of the capitals of Europe, especially in Berlin, Vienna, Constanti- nople, Sofia and The Hague, that neither he nor the governments to whom his diplomatic representatives were accredited benefited in any degree thereby. The chiefs of the American diplomatic missions at those posts were not only untrained for their duties, but were in addition unsuited temperamentally. PREFACE XIX With the possible exception of a single individual these chefs de mission were sent abroad by Mr. Wilson and his party in return for ' favors done. In some instances the favor consisted of substantial / contributions made to the campaign fund of the Democratic Party. That these men had given their money in order that the Democratic Party might be successful at the polls is in itself nothing unusual or dishonorable. Campaign contributions are one of the socio-political evils we must put up with. Nor is there anything reprehensible in doing such donors a return favor. It cannot even be said that appoint- ing them ambassadors and ministers was a grave error. We must bear in mind that before the outbreak of the Great War it was generally assumed that ambassadors and ministers were in reality little more than the messenger boys of state departments and foreign offices. If blame attaches to any one at all in this respect it is the general public that must bear it. To lay into the hands of political favorites the power of peace or war is reckless procedure, to say the least. But it was done — largely because, I believe, few of us recognized that danger was associated with the practice. With our notion that diplomatists were the mes- senger boys of governments went the delusion that wars would be short and parlor affairs. So much had been said concerning universal peace that most of us had been lulled into a false sense of security. The few who saw in the blatant peace apostles but the petrels of disaster, and I have the distinction of having been one of these few, were descried as militarists. With the utmost complacency the world drifted on, forgot its duties toward the neighbor, grabbed for markets and grew callous of all but the ego. The result was the costliest of wars and the debacle of a social system on which better men than ourselves had labored. Revolution instead of evolution became the watchword. It was deemed necessary to pull down every- thing in order that the fantastic structure of the idealist might be raised. Whether or no mankind is to derive benefit from this excursion into Utopia remains to be seen. So long as municipal law in the well- administered state is the result, rather than the cause, of good conduct by the majority of citizens, so long will sound international relations be the effect of good conduct by the majority of states. And that majority, naturally, includes the leading elements in both categories. A rapacious caste will influence legislation for the purpose of further- ing its own interests ; the rapacious government and state will shape international relations, and direct their course, agreeable to its own objectives. Glib assurances will not do — nor should they longer XX THE CRAFT SINISTER suffice. While the axiom, the end justifies the means, has fallen somewhat into disfavor and has been disavowed by the idealists at least, the fact is that the Great War was really a procession of such cases — a sad procession, to be sure, but a reality for all that. All the hypocritical protests that could be uttered in a thousand years will not efface the sorry fact that the Great War was between two camps, the test to what extent Might could be made Right. But while arms settled the issue it was diplomacy that made the issue. In this connection I deem it proper to call attention to the fact that I had a great deal of experience with diplomatic circles and diplomacy in Europe. This experience in fact is my justification for treating this subject and documentation here thereof has the purpose of letting the reader see diplomacy at close range. In the interest of peace I caused the removal from his post of one diplomatist, and for a little time took over much of the affairs of an embassy, to whose chief I later brought the sad news that in the morning he would get his passports. At the man's request I asked the foreign office in question that the severance of diplomatic relations be postponed for a few days. This was done and a little later it became my duty to argue for a continuation of relations so that there might be left standing a bridge over which relations with another power might be resumed. Diplomacy had failed woefully. In desperation and despair, high government officials had to turn to a mere scribe, a foreign corre- spondent, for counsel and assistance. Diplomatists had arrived at a point where they no longer trusted one another. Both sides seemed willing to stay out of the Great War, yet neither had enough confi- dence in the other to be frank in the least degree. So long had these \ men lied to one another and so many deceptions had been practiced that an outjsider had to be called in to interpret the Machiavellian assurances that had been or were being given. In other words, di- plomacy stood unmasked even before those who engaged in it. Greek had met Greek. The occurrence was tragic in the extreme. It caused the writer to double his interest in diplomacy and its questionable practices, of which by that time he had seen enough already. His present effort is the result of the observations and investigations made by him before and after the incident referred to. Those who may conclude that American diplomacy and diplo- matists get a disproportionate share of attention here are reminded that I am writing for the American public, that, as American news- paper correspondent, I, naturally, occupied myself more with American diplomacy than with any other, and that, finally, the role of the United PREFACE XXI States came to be a most exceptional one in Central Europe, the locale of my work. There is another reason why I should select the United States diplomatic service for purposes of illustrating what the pitfalls of diplomacy may be. It is not necessary to have the foreign affairs of a country in the hands of designing rascals to get that country into trouble. The amateur diplomatist — the yokel in foreign affairs and relations — can do that also. He can create situations by his own effort, and, what is far worse, he serves so much the better the sinister purposes of a man or group with a mission, a Woodrow Wilson, for instance. Next to nothing is so far known in regard to United States diplomacy in Central Europe. The American public, like its Congress, knows that there was trouble somewhere, and Mr. Wilson has steadfastly refused to take either into his confidence. Mr. Lansing also has said little, know- ing that no credit of any sort attaches to our participation in the Great War. In fact nobody hath spoken, and nobody will speak.* To me it seems that my co-citizens deserve better. I will afford them the means toward that end, and it is possible that I, blazing here a trail, may induce others to be heard from, because, I take it, and what is more, I know, that our diplomacy at other capitals was not one iota better. I have written here merely of the things I came in touch with. Were I to put down even a part of what I heard five such volumes would be needed to perpetuate the antics of men who, according to their own books, were little short of being omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent — in the eyes of the penny- a-liners who wrote these books, if not by admission of His Excellency himself. It is to be hoped that the future historian will not give too much heed to the drivel one finds in the books of diplomatist-authors. I at least have found these books remarkably unreliable on the part played by the author. It would seem that these literary productions are on a par with the "blue books" published by governments for the edi- fication of the public and their own amusement, as in some cases I will show. And here it may be noted that so far the British and French diplomatists on foreign post just before the outbreak of war have not been heard from. In fact, they will not be heard from. * ". . . Yet the fact that the Senate must ratify all agreements is likely to make us believe that we really have popular control of foreign policy, when, as a matter of fact, less is known about American diplomacy before and during the war than about the exchanges leading to and accompanying the belligerency of any of the other Allies. . . . What actually did Wilson, Lloyd George, Clemenceau and Orlando say to each other in that stuffy room which housed the Council of Four? These are things that we must know before even provisional estimates can be formed of President Wilson's policy before and during the war; and, in spite of our machinery for popular control of diplomacy, Americans know rather less of their own recent h.istory than of European history. It is a nice ethical question, finally, as to whether the citizens of a democracy should not be told these matters by official publications instead of personal memoirs." — lyindsay Rogers, The Review, Feb. 28, 1930. XXII THE CRAFT SINISTER because their government and Foreign Office would never let them. Thus it will seem that only the diplomatists of the United States, and of the countries defeated by the Allies, engage in writing memoirs that are personal and partial, but which for all that aspire to being accepted as "truth and nothing but the truth." Study of these books will lead to no other conclusion than that they are at best a record of backstairs gossip perpetuated by the mighty master of the house — a rather ludicrous situation, to be sure. Yet it is from books of this sort that the public of the United States has taken the scant knowledge — or what it mistakes for knowledge — it has of the Great War. In this regard it is not unique, of course, since the United States Senate was obliged to gather its information concerning the sessions in Paris from the Canadian, South African and Australian press. That Mr. Wilson wanted to guarantee for ever and aye the status quo as now existing in the Balkan was learned by our Senate not from Mr. Wilson or American newspapers but from the Rumanian and Serbian press. Since from a labor of this isort purpose cannot be dissociated, I wish to say that I have the betterment of the methods of international relations at heart. Above all, I would contribute something toward the improvement of which the diplomatic service of the United States stands in the sorest need. I have certain recommendations to make, but before I speak of them it becomes necessary to picture diplomacy as it was and still is, and how it brought on the Great War. In conclusion I wish to state that no single individual is in position to know it all. I confine myself here strictly to the sphere in which I moved and to the facts with which I became familiar. New York, May 1, 1919. S. I LIST OF CHAPTERS AND SUB-DIVISIONS Page Introduction XI Preface XVII List of Chapters and Sub-Divisions XXIII I. WAR AND DIPLOMACY 1 The Varying Nature of Racial Fitness 2 The Causes of War in Mesopotamia 4 The Oldest Treaty of Record 6 Two Early Types of Arriviste 8 Expansion in Imperial Rome 9 II. DIPLOMATISTS AND THEIR CRAFT 12 Diplomatic Privilege of Ancient Origin 13 Diplomatists Receive Scant Salaries 15 Diplomacy As Seen ad hominem 17 The European Professional Diplomatist 19 On the MentaUty of the Diplomatist 21 A Hypothetical Demonstration of Diplomacy 24 III. XHEjmEMLALLJLAIiCS 27 The Three Emperors' League Superseded 29 Purpose of Franco- Russian Alliance 31 Russia and Germany Continue Friends 33 Europe's Three Political Camps 35 The Triple Entente Puts in Appearance 36 IV. XWT? T-PTPIrE FiNTFNTK 39 The Case of the Two-Power Standard 41 A Race Between Jingo and Chauvinist 43 The Anti-German Policy of Edward VII 45 Diplomacy in Its Heyday 47 A General Maneuvering for Position 49 Preparedness for War Gets New Start 51 —The Position of Austria-Hungary 53 The Profits of Tariff Discrimination 55 V. TUFi GREAT DKRACT.K 57 A Question of Royal Respectability 58 The Diplomatic Mines Are Sprung 60 The Terms of the Entente Cordiale 63 The Attitude of Prince Lichnowski 65 XXlll XXIV THE CRAFT SINISTER PaC« V. THE GREAT DEBACLE (Continued) The Conduct of a Mad Militarist 70 A Diplomatic jeu de grimasse 72 A Bull in a Political China Shop 75 The Government "Official" as Statesman 77 What the German Government Overlooked 79 A Piece of Diplomatic Hypocrisy 82 VI. WHAT WILL AMERICA DO? 85 The "Orders in Council" Become Supreme 87 International Law Goes Into Discard 90 When Diplomacy Shirks Problems 92 The Position of Neutral Holland, 93 The Attitude of an American Diplomatist 95 Views of an Irate Diplomatic Censor 98 The Censor Assists Entente Diplomacy 100 Preparing American Public Opinion 103 The Case of Cardinal Mercier 105 Voice of Press Is Voice of People 107 VIL DIPLOMACY IN TURKEY 110 The Dardanelles in Early Diplomacy 112 Entente Diplomacy When Handicapped 115 A Balkan Problem in the Making 117 An American Ambassador Is Heard From 119 When and Why German Diplomacy Won 122 Diplomatic Sauce for Goose and Gander 124 A Diplomatist in a Quandary 126 Diplomatic Omnipotence at Close Range 128 The Foibles of a Diplomatic Agent. 132 Beyond the Bounds of Diplomatic Propriety 135 VIII. MACHIAVELISM A OUTRANGE 137 A Militaro-Diplomatic Move Foiled 138 Strange Diplomatic Bed-Fellows 141 Russia's Dream a Diplomatic "Desire" 143 Where Clarification Was Needed 146 Clarification Is No Longer Needed 149 Consequences of the Dardanelles Fiasco 151 IX. BULGARIA VERSUS SERBIA 154 The Roots of "Balkan" Diplomacy 156 Sazonoff 's Policy Toward Bulgaria 159 Bulgaria's Independence Displeased Czar 162 Bucharest Treaty a Mare's Nest 164 How Bulgarian Officers Viewed It 166 Entente Diplomacy at Sofia Bestirs Itself 163 Dr. Radoslavoff's Diplomatic Notions 170 Question of Guarantee Leads to Deadlock 172 LIST OF CHAPTERS AND SUB-DIVISIONS XXV Pa«e X. SOME CASES OF DIPLOMANIA I77 Sofia Entente Diplomatists Depart I79 A Clash Between "Minister" and Consul General 182 Mr. Einstein a Most Zealous Guardian 184 The Pseudo-Minister Had a Free Hand 188 Pre-Conceived Views of a Diplomatist 190 A Diplomatist of Ingrown Intellect I93 Publicity is Used as a Corrective 196 XL DIPLOMACY IN RUMANIA 199 Diplomatic Constellation at Bucharest 200 Back of the Coulisses Diplomatiques • 203 How Senator Marghiloman Saw It 205 A Neutrality of Several Parts 209 The Value of the "Information Service" 211 A Diplomatic Deal In Wheat. 215 Political Business in Plain Language 219 Some Matters Incident to Warfare 221 Bratianu Makes a Diplomatic Deal 223 XII. DIPLOMACY AND PUBLIC OPINION 227 The Fruit of Diplomacy Begins to Ripen 228 Allied Diplomacy Is Editor-in-Chief 230 When the American Press Was Less Partial 233 The British Censors Were a Touchy Lot 235 Contradicting an English Balkan "Expert" 238 In Press Diplomacy First Version Counts 240 Mr. Lansing Thought It More Courteous 242 British Censorship Diplomacy Ubiquitous 245 Censorship Diplomacy in Bulgaria 248 Mr. Gerard Also Promotes Public Opinion 250 What the Wilhelmstrasse Thought of It 256 XIII. THE BERLIN VIEWPOINT 262 Diplomacy of the Palazzo Farnese 264 The Sacred Egotism of Diplomacy 266 The Pan-German's Dream of Empire 268 German Realpolitik vs. British Idealpolitik 270 — German Diplomacy as Seen From Within 272 International Law a Mere Rule of Conduct 274 The Earlier View of the American Government 276 The World from Now On "Privy-Counselled" 278 Diplomacy and the Question of Food 281 Fulcrum of a Diplomatic See-Saw 284 What Machiavel Would Have Done 286 A Diplomatic Splitting of Hairs 288 The Handicaps of German Diplomacy 290 In Diplomacy Might Is Right 293 XXVI THE CRAFT SINISTER Pace XIV. THE VIENNA VIEWPOINT 296 Diplomacy versus National Fact 297 In a Diplomatic cul-de-sac 300 Austro-Himgarian Diplomacy Less Handicapped 302 Diplomacy Reduced to Plain Business 304 Tisza's View of the Situation in 1916 307 Count Tisza Doubted Mr. Wilson's Integrity 309 Vienna Not Fond of Submarine Warfare 312 Diplomacy of the Barbed- Wire Brand 314 State Department Policy Not Consistent 317 The Cause of Future Political Moves 319 The Ever- Wakeful British and French Censors 321 An Attempt to Believe the Incredible 324 First of Two Major Political Moves 326 XV. DIPLOMACY AT CROSS PURPOSES 331 An Infested Diplomatic Woodpile 332 Count Czernin Before a Great Problem 335 An American Ambassador and "Free Press" 342 Strained Personal Diplomatic Relations 345 Washington Clears Decks for Action 349 A Diplomatist in Sore Predicament 352 The Aftermath of a Diplomatic Tea 355 Diplomatic Negotiations Under Difficulties 358 Diplomatists and Plain Citizen 360 XVI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 364 Products of the Diplomatic Laboratory 366 As to Open Covenants and Open Diplomacy 371 A Better Base for International Relations 374 The Field of the Interparliamentary Union 379 Why "Diplomacy" Should Get Its Passport 381 The Fourteen Points and What Became of Them 383 APPENDIX 389 A. Treaty of Alliance of 1279 B. C 389 B. The Battle of Kadesh 391 C. "League of Peace" of 1518-19 A. D. 394 D. The Entento-Italian Agreement of 1915 395 E. Censorship Regulations of Bulgaria, 1915 397 F. Societe Anonyme et S. E. le Cardmal Mercier 400 G. "The Pitfalls of Diplomacy" 404 INDEX OF PERSONNEL 409 LIST OF DOCUMENTS QUOTED 419 ¥ The Craft Sinister WAR AND DIPLOMACY THE causes of war advanced by the historian seem varied enough. Close and impartial scrutiny, however, discloses that the prime cause of war has been real or fancied necessity — economic pres- sure in some instance, political factors in others. It is no simple operation to divide in this instance the real from the fancied. Economic pressure becomes generally a political factor; it is that in all cases when the ultima ratio — war — is resorted to. When it is considered that even the material needs of a state are not always a matter of actual want, but may be no more than what is usually understood by the term : Expansion — the enlargement at the expense of others, of domain, markets or political influence, the task of delimitation appears in its proper proportions. We do not deal here with a simple form of taking. Some other party must lose before the taking can occur. The claims of a popu- lation living under intolerable conditions due to overcrowding seem valid enough so long as they are viewed by themselves. They lose, however, much of their weight when contrasted to the position of the people at whose expense more room is to be found for the claimant. The territory in question may not be needed by the second party, but the fact is that the latter thinks that the space will be needed before long for its own increase in population. Breaking away from the purely biological aspect of the case, we come to the matter of wealth. Territory not actually occupied or made use of is wealth, of course. Of this each nation would retain as much as possible. To retain it, nations in all ages have taken recourse to arms, either in a preventive manner, by being militarily prepared, or by entering upon war. Whatever aspect of decency there attaches to military operations is found in the defense of such a right, so that, generally speaking, defensive wars are the only ones which need appeal to our imagination. It follows that where there is defense there must be aggression, and it is plain, then, that the aggressor is in the wrong. But the aggressor is not in the wrong from his own point of view, and the instances are not few in which the historian and philosopher has sided 2 THE CRAFT SINISTER with him. It is, for example, the universal acceptance that the subjuga- tion, and ^ven the total elimination, of a people considered barbarous is permissible, to say the least. Anciently such was the general practice unblushingly adhered to by all. But there are even more recent examples of this. iWe have but to remind ourselves of the fate of the American Indian, the Aztecs and the Peruvians to see how little headway civilization has really made. Antiquity, indeed, does not show us a single case in which races and nations were treated so ruthlessly or were so completely effaced. There is no doubt that the Jews suffered very hard treatment at the hands of the Egyptians, Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Romans and others. For all that the race survived, and mankind has lost nothing thereby. The fate of nations is, as that of individuals, a question of survival of the fittest. The fact that the x\ztec and Inca civilizations disappeared is not entirely a matter of Spanish cruelty. To be sure, both of them would have survived, at least in part, had they first come in contact with as enlightened a system of colonization as the modern British. Neverthe- less, the Aztec and Inca civilizations contained within themselves the elements of weakness that was to be their doom. The haughty and cruel government of the Montezumas made it possible for Hernando Cortez to find within Mexico the allies he needed to destroy the despotism of the Aztec government, and in Peru another conquistador, Francisco Pizarro, found a highly centralized government in a socialistically administered state, the collapse of which left the people without leadership and made the handful of Spaniards supreme. In both instances the less fitted succumbed to the better fitted. The fate of the North American Indian is very similar. In this case the subject race was unable even to grasp what little opportunity there was given it. Instead of reconciling itself to the new state of things, the Indian preferred to pass into oblivion over the route of idleness and free government rations on a Reservation. Only the confirmed sentimentalist would shed tears on behalf of the "poor" Indian. The Varying Nature of Fitness Though some would have it otherwise, the fact is that the survival of the fittest is the main trait in the history of mankind. That fitness, however, has not been always of the same class and degree. In some cases it has been entirely physical, in others superiority of intellect has been the means of survival, as witness the case of the Old Greeks and the Jews. There are cases even in which the mere superiority of numbers counted, as was true especially of the migratory hordes that swept from Asia into THE VARYING NATURE OF FITNESS 3 Europe and dispersed strong governments and well-organized peoples as if they had been so much chaff before the wind. That the Tartaric and Mongolian elements in Europe are not more prominent is due to the fact that superiority in numbers could not prevail in the end. The people through whose territories these nomad armies spread had brains in addi- tion to brawn, and so it came that before long there was little left of the invaders. The Finns moved into uncontested districts and the Huns were assimilated by a civilization. With the adoption of the arts and practices of the Germanic peoples, among whorh they settled, the race of Attila armed itself against ejection. The result has been that it has survived into our own days and is still one of the most virile peoples in Europe. It is not within the range of the subject discussed here to give further examples of this sort. History is almost entirely made up of similar in- stances. The point that is to be illustrated here is of what nature the necessities leading to war may be, and what results they have generally led to. We find on the one hand that a few adventurers bent upon the accumulation of riches have destroyed great organized states, while on the other whole racial groups went out in search of the promised land, found it, and then either perished or prospered. The war records of antiquity are entirely too meager and incomplete to permit the drawing of a line of demarkation between the actual and specific causes of, and the pretexts for, war. What little authentic data there has come to us consists in the main of the self -laudatory records left by rulers who had been successful on the battlefield, a condition which would easily cause the impression, as it has done, that the wars of the Ancients were nearly always personal exploits of a sportive character. A closer study of the subject, however, shows that this is a fallacy in many cases. Real and fancied necessity was even then the moving factor. Pre- texts of one sort or another were already resorted to, showing that then, as now, there was a sort of world public opinion that had to be appeased when it was not actually appealed to. In the valley of the Two Rivers, now known as Mesopotamia, the population was already dense at the very dawn of history. For the purpose of increasing the arable area the water of the Tigris and • Euphrates had been led into thousands of irrigation canals, a labor which in itself is the best evidence that the Chaldeans and Sumerians were meet- ing the demand for more room made by the growing population in a manner which could not offend the neighbor, except, possibly, in so far that the neighbor grew alarmed at the increase in population itself or became envious of the riches of these states. It would seem that after a while the possibilities of development in the central and northern reaches of the two rivers were exhausted, and 4 THE CRAFT SINISTER that the Chaldeans had to look for more room elsewhere. Bounded in the West by great deserts, similarly handicapped in the East, the Chaldeans endeavored to find room in the North and South. The Eastern Taurus, however, was inhabited by mountaineers, probably the ancestors of the Armenians, and no headway could be made in that direction. The result was that the Chaldeans turned toward the South, and be- fore long became not only the masters, but also the sole inhabitants of what had been the state of Sumeria. When the country was taken much of the population was put to the sword and the remainder carried into captivity. The same people, later known as Assyrians, repeated this practice else- where, as did the Babylonians, their direct descendants. The Medes and Persians finally put an end to the whole state structure in Mesopotamia, but did not enjoy their empire for long. Greek and Roman came and put a period to Persia and her empire, and within a very short time, so far the life of nations goes, the new overlords of Southwest Asia themselves went into oblivion, to be succeeded by the Arabs, cousins of the Chaldeans, As- syrians and Babylonians. The same race was again in possession of the Two Rivers country. The arteries of life, however, the great irrigation canals, had dried up and little could now be done with a country into which Paradise had been laid by the Ancients. We have in this instance what may be called an entire cycle of national life, extending well over seven thousand years, if we make allowance for the time required to bring Chaldea into the relatively high state of develop- ment it had when the curtain lifts on it. The Causes of War in Mesopotamia The tendency to expand in numbers, and possibly in commerce, as shown by the inhabitants of the Two Rivers country, is indeed a most sinister one. It led to the most cruel wars of conquest we have record of. Military operations were, seemingly, undertaken on slightest provocation and no regard whatever was shown for the rights of the state neighbor. The absence of such a thing as international law and its sanctioning matrix, a strong public opinion, tended to make these wars as ruthless as they could be. That such was the case is shown by the tablets and steles of the time, on which rulers boast with great satisfaction of the cruelties they commit- ted. From the defeated enemy ruler was generally taken "the light of his eyes, the speech from his mouth, and the sound from his ears," after which he might suffer "the pain of the boat," the most disgusting method of execution ever devised by the brain of man. To flay the captive alive was nothing unusual in those days ; the morale of populations and besieged garrisons was generally shaken by impaling within view from the city walls THE CAUSES OF WAR IN MESOPOTAMIA 5 the hapless creature from whom fate had withheld the swifter end that came when the populace was put to the sword by the conqueror. When the city had finally been sacked and razed, the comely females, and now and then, the young men, were carried into slavery. Ancient history is largely compiled from such records, because the chronicles of kinder import are exceedingly scarce. Small wonder then that the history of Southwest Asia is one long account of cruelty in war and deceit in international relations, of conquest today and subjugation tomorrow. But we must guard against thinking ourselves entirely in a different class. As pointed out, the records of the better side of life in the Two Rivers country are scant. We must not forget that the blatant autobiog- raphies of the ancient conquistador es are, at their very best, most frag- mentary and extend over a period of almost four thousand years. To condemn a whole civilization on such evidence would be unfair. It must be borne in mind also that the rulers of those days and parts were absolute despots, amenable only to the dagger of the assassin and the tender mercies of another ruler. Apparent also is that much of the murder that was done, on ruler and people alike, was in the nature of reprisal. Cruelty was met with increased cruelty, and crime was visited with retribution in end- less repetition, until it was looked upon as a perfectly legitimate incident to war. Agriculture, industry and commerce were too well fostered by the Ancients in the Two Rivers country to permit the snap judgment that all of its rulers engaged in war for the sole purpose of drowning their ennui in bloodshed and destruction. When a city was razed and its people massacred and deported, or when a whole country was laid waste and its population put to the sword or carried into captivity, some sort of necessity was behind the undertaking. In some cases more room was needed, in others a commercial rival was to be eliminated, and when we read in the chronicles of old that this or that king left his country greater than he had found it we may be sure that he left it more prosperous and that the wars he waged had that for an objective. Ancient Egypt is a good example of this. Though a contemporary of the states in Mesopotamia, its military history is on the whole a very gentle tale. The Pharaohs were never a cruel lot. Expansion was attempted in the direction of Ethiopia and Judea, but nothing of any account ever came of this. Small territories were occupied for a time, to be ultimately abandoned. In many respects Old Egypt was the Holland of her days, I should say, without wishing to infer that dykes and annual inundations must of neces- sity influence all peoples alike. The Egypt of the Pharaohs was separatistic. Her borders were rather secure on the whole. To the East and West of 6 THB CRAFT SINISTER the valley the desert formed natural means of defense. The shores of the Red Sea and Mediterranean were easily guarded, and the Ethiopians in the South seem to have been fairly decent neighbors, a condition to which another desert and a good line of communication for the Egyptians, the navigable Nile, must have contributed. Old Egypt was thus able to nurse her civilization and from it must have come the realization that wars of conquest are profitable only when necessity for them exists. For reasons unknown to the historian the popu- lation of the Nile valley does not seem to have increased at a great rate. It is not improbable that the increase was regulated, either purposely or through the influence of religious practices of a sexual character, the cult of Isis. At any rate the state in the Nile valley lasted, so far as our records show, some five thousand years, and since we must take into consideration that Egypt enters history a well-organized state, bearing the imprint of a slow, and, therefore, long development at the time of her entrance, another two thousand years may safely be added to her national life as we know it. The Oldest Treaty of Record It is of interest to know that the oldest treaties extant were made between Egyptian kings and rulers in Southwest Asia, Asia Minor included. Of one of them the entire text is known. Rameses II, Pharaoh, and Kheta-sar, King of the Hittites, are the high contracting parties. The treaties then in force, a defensive alliance, prohibition of change of al- ( November 28, 1279 B. C), and provides for the reaffirmation of other treaties then i nforce, a defensive alliance, prohibition of change of al- legiance of the subjects of the two rulers, and extradition of fugitives from justice with the rather humane stipulation that persons extradited may not suffer cruel punishments. The document was evidently drawn up at the Egyptian court, with two Hittite ambassadors, Tarte-sebu and Rames, representing King Kheta-sar. The treaty throws a strong light on international and diplomatic re- lations in those days, and, though more than 3,000 years have passed since then, it cannot be said that we have very much improved upon its text, and, what is more important, its spirit. (See Appendix.) Egypt, indeed, was the leader of international morality in her days, and it would seem that this contributed not a little to her downfall. Sur- rounded by a world in which brute force and political deception was rule and practice, she neglected her military establishment and ultimately fell prey to the invader. When she finally passed ofif she was in the condition of the octogenarian, whose works and years were ripe alike. She had THE OLDEST TREATY OF RECORD 7 avoided and had been spared such wars as would have resulted in the in- fusion of new blood into her people, and when the raider finally came she was no longer virile enough to assimilate. Instead she was completely assimilated — eradicated to such an extent that the very type of her people has disappeared. Of the state on the Nile it must be said, however, that a mini- mum of wars left her a maximum of prosperity, so long as the struc- ture lasted. And with that prosperity she coupled a degree of culture that was really extraordinary. It was the matrix of Greek philosophy and science, nor is there much ground for the belief that the sages of Hellas carried their own culture very much beyond the confines of what they had imported from the Land of Temples and Pyramids. International relations between Egypt and Greece were the closest and at times the best, despite the fact that the Greeks did not always deal honestly with the Egyptians, did so very rarely, in fact. Greece in her heyday, however, seems to have followed the Egyptian model of foreign intercourse and relations. It is rather surprising that with the same means and with a more favorable geographical position, the Greeks did not take to a plan of expansion, empire-building, which later gave its stamp to Rpme. The wars undertaken by Old Greece were mostly efforts to procure colonies in the bona fide and afterward hold them. The colonies of the Greeks were established to give room for the surplus population in the home country, to further Greek commerce and procure raw material. To find sites for the new cities, for of such a nature most of the colonies were at the beginning, does not seem to have been very difficult at any time. Trouble came when these cities and the surrounding country began to flourish and excited the envy of rapacious rulers and governments. First it was the Persian, later the Roman bandits who coveted them and in most cases placed themselves in possession. Two Early Types of Arriviste It is very unfortunate that Greece's civilization finally fell prey to the duplicity of her statesmen, most of whom were great diplomatists and as such forever engaged in intrigue, against some neighbor now, against a Greek state or colony then. Alcibiades and Themistocles, perhaps the greatest of Greek diplomatistis and statesmen, may be considered the very prototype of the modern intriguant of the diplomatic service. They were arrivistes of the worst type, suffered forever from hurt feelings and closed life as traitors to their own people. Since there were many of this type in Greece, not to mention Pausanias, Hellas was doomed. The worst enemy of the Greek was the Greek, and so it came to pass that, urged by 8 THE CRAFT SINISTER the demagogue and professional politician, the Hellenes exhausted them- selves in internecine strife and passed under the rule of their enemies first and out of existence a little later. The very people of modern Greece are not Greeks. They are Slavs and stand in relation to the Hellenes very much as the Fellah along the Nile stands to the Egyptian. With the departure of Egyptian and Greek came a new era in war- fare and international affairs. For want of a better term I will call it: The Persian. For a thousand years at any rate warfare had had a constructive char- acter, that is to say, after every campaign the world seemed a little better off than it had been before. The coming of the Persian and Roman changed all that, though the last of the Roman emperors, again — alas, too late — ^tried hard to reap other fruits from war than mere loot. I refer to Augustus, Trajan and Hadrian. The Persian kings were empire-mad, with the result that their wars were entirely destructive. To the Greeks the Persians were known as barbarians, and there is little doubt that this characterization was to the point. The Persians had done little enough, in civics, in their own coun- try. They did less in the conquered territories. Loot was the principal objective of their military operations. Under their rule the irrigation systems of Mesopotamia were so neglected that the country ceased to produce enough food for the hapless remainder of the Babylonian nation. Soon there was little to steal in Mesopotamia and with that the Persians moved further westward. It was not development that interested this fine race-brother of ours, but exploitation by the swiftest method then known — the taking of some rich city and the levying of tribute thereafter. It is rather amusing that this international highwayman of Antiquity should have given his acts the purest of motives — if we are to take his word for it. The plain fact is that he appropriated right and left without even so much consideration for the inhabitants as is included in a thought for their further productivity. The Persian is truly the conquistador of old. When he finally subsided he left in his trail a dozen Mexicos and Perus. His rulers and military leaders were the precursors of the Spanish ad- venturers, with the same wild craze for gold and dominion, with neither of which they knew how to deal judiciously. The first imperialist of record, giving the noun the sense it identifies today, was Rome. Heretofore wars had been waged for more room and now and then to get rid of a neighbor whose prosperity was either a real or fancied danger. The warring kings of Mesopotamia deported whole populations after laying waste their country, and after the lust for blood of their armies had been stilled. 'Colonization was not practiced by them for the reason that contiguity of domains was considered very desirable, TWO EARLY TYPES OF ARRIVISTE 9 but was out of the question, since great trackless deserts lay between the homeland and the districts that could serve as colonies. It is possible that the Egyptians were similarly hampered, and, with the means of navigation still very primitive, the founding and maintenance of overseas colonies cannot have greatly appealed to the Egyptians since they, unlike the Greeks, had no string of islands from the home shore to colonizable lands. The colonies of the Greeks were merely the endeavor to find room in which to plow, work, build and trade. The result of this was that most of these colonies were autonomous. For reasons unknown to us the Greeks were not fond in the main of ruling others. They probably found ruling themselves strenuous enough. Their history, in fact, leaves no doubt as to this. Expansion in Imperial Rome With Rome it was different. There was a time when her citizens oc- cupied themselves entirely with their own affairs and problems. Ambitious leaders, however, soon deprived them of this commendable habit. All Italy was brought under Roman suzerainty, and, since Vappetite vient en mangeant, it was not long before the Roman stay-at-home began to rove all over the known world in quest of new colonies. That quest, especially under the later consuls and emperors, meant a great deal of booty in loot and slaves, and, above all, a large income for the state and its ministers in the form of tribute — a regular revenue in gold and silver, and often enslaved human beings. For the rabble the colonial policy of imperial Rome meant free wheat, stolen in Egypt and Cilicia mostly, and free wine from the shores and islands of the Mediterranean; free performances in the Circus Maximus. This could not go on forever. Rome's population grew poor mentally and so it was that Rome became the ne plus ultra in having ended as a republic because it was rich, and as a monarchy because it was poor — an intellectual beggar. Back of the "splendor that was Rome" lies a disgusting picture of militarism. Rome waxed fat on her brutality and cant. Might is right, was the maxim which the senators in the Forum circumvented. Consul and proconsul cudgeled their brains night and day how further conquest could be made, or how the revenues could be increased to such an extent that even the taxes farmer could not steal them all. Political leaders who had fallen into disfavor with the capricious rabble of the city engaged in tirades against "barbaric" states to divert the attention of the populace from the shortcomings and crimes of the men in the toga. Wars were started, lost and won, for no other purpose than to save the reputation of the rascals in high places. 10 THE CRAFT SINISTER Let Carthage he destroyed! The colonies of Rome experienced better times under the later em- perors. Monarchs and monarchies have always paid much attention to what may be termed a fixed state policy, in which respect they are much superior to republican institutions. Most of the Roman emperors, even the worst of them, subscribed to the continuation of principles and methods that had been found advantageous. The colonies profited more by that than did the city itself. Roads were built and shipping was placed on the navigable rivers. The signal hills furnished a rapid means of communica- tion, as did a sort of postal service. Little by little the taxes farmers were curbed and a part of the revenues collected was spent among those who contributed to them. In the cities great public buildings were erected and such Roman temple-citadelles as Baalbec assisted in making the popula- tion in the provinces feel that they were to some extent part of that mighty empire far away. It is a rather odd circumstance that Republican Rome was liberal and farsighted only at home, while Monarchic Rome was liberal and progres- sive in the colonies. Under the republic the colonials were expected to pray to the gods of Rome, but refused to do it; in the monarchy the colonials could pray to whatever god they pleased, but preferred the Roman deities, worship of most of whom had been agreeably modified, so that a Syrian, still fond of Baal, could without injury to his conscience do his devotions in the Temple of Jupiter Ammon in Baalbec, while the Greek could do likewise in the shrine to Venus on the same fortress platform. Emperors Augustus and Trajan were probably the greatest builders Rome had. Unfortunately, they built in the eleventh hour of Rome's existence. The mortar in their edifices was scarcely dry and the pavement on their roads had barely settled when the Germanic barbarians gave the empire in the West its quietus. The empire of the Ekst, Byzantium, rie- inforced by nearly all that was left of Greece, lasted a thousand years longer, and then it, too, fell to pieces. The necessities of another race, this time a Turanian, the Osmanli, had of a sudden grown into the pro- portions of an empire — and an empire the needs of a small flock of nomads were to be, even though it numbered but "four hundred tents" when it squatted down before Old Dorylaeum, frontier post of the revolution-torn Byzantium. At that time, I am speaking of the Fifteenth Century A. D., diplomacy was already a fine art in Europe. During the Dark Age it had flourished greatly, especially in Italy, France and Spain. The Neo-Idealism of those times, which ultimately took on the form of a wild scramble to free the Holy Places in Palestine from the yoke of the Saracene, was the proper hotbed for political intrigue. Italian diplomatists especially were famous, EXPANSION IN IMPERIAL ROME 11 so famous, in fact, that governments hired them as later they hired Swiss Guards. When a certain Machiavel, a century later, published his fine book on the conduct of princes and governments he was not by any means as original as has been laid to his credit by some, to his discredit by others. Those who condemn Machiavel usually overlook that he was a benign cynic who saw the world in his day as it actually was, and as in our days it usually still is. u DIPLOMATISTS AND THEIR CRAFT JUST when diplomacy became the occupation, professionally, of men trained or selected for the art of negotiation, as known to govern- ments, is uncertain, of course. The first professional diplomatists seem to have served the governments of Genua and Venice, though in making that statement one has to bear in mind that it is not always easy to distinguish between the professional and the occasional, as the case may be put here, seeing that amateur and dilettante are terms that can hardly be applied. Long before the diplomatic representatives of these two trade repub- lics negotiated commercial treaties and trade concessions in the capitals of the countries about the Mediterranean, and said wicked things of one another, ambassadors and envoys had been sent and received by most of the courts for several centuries. But the first of these resident envoys were usually favorites of the court that sent them and had little to do with diplomacy as we understand the term. To send a resident ambas- sador to another court meant then that one monarch wished to pay a com- pliment to another. That personages so delegated did now and then occupy themselves with international aflfairs is quite possible, but on the whole they seem to have been true to their proper mission, and that was 10 say little and let their presence speak for itself. To have an ambassador at another court was the equivalent then of attesting that there was friend- ship between the two monarchs. It meant little more, as is proved by the practice of sending special envoys whenever some bit of state business had to be attended to. It would seem that ambassadors were not always as well received as was expected. The first European ambassadors who arrived at the court of a Turkish Sultan were presented to His Majesty in strong cages especially made for the occasion. It is a matter of record that the Prussian envoy did not relish this treatment and complained to his govern- ment. But the Turk was in those days a master in Europe. His domain extended as far north as the Carpathians, Budapest and the neighborhood of Vienna, and when the Sultan saw fit to receive ambassadors in a cage there was no help for it. The Turk had but a little while before emerged from Asia Minor 12 DIPLOMATISTS AND THEIR CRAFT 13 and his notions as to dignity were still somewhat Oriental. In this case they dated back to the days of Darius and the Persian kings generally. So far as known, the first ambassadors of record who negotiated a treaty are Tarte-sebu and Rames, mentioned in the preceding chapter. In view of the fact that the treaty made between Rameses II and Kheta-sar speaks of other treaties, it is safe to assume that other ambassadors had been similarly employed, except it be that the treaties mentioned were negotiated by the high contracting parties in question themselves. If the usual method of doing things, as prevailing in those days, figures in this case, the facts are probably that Mauthnuro had offended the Pharaoh, had thereby loosed the dogs of war on himself, and had been defeated and killed, with his brother Kheta-sar succeeding him to the throne. The new king of the Hittites acknowledged evidently whatever conditions had been imposed upon him, and, agreeable with his status of inferior, pos- sibly vassal to Rameses II, sent his ambassador to the Egyptian court. Of interest is that the treaty, despite its fervent assurances that there shall be friendship between the two kings forever, did not enjoy too long a span of life, it would seem. Rameses III, who was king of Egypt from 1202 to 1170 B. C., is pictured in a tablet at Medinet Habu as receiving the hands of slain Hittites, while an inscription explains that the expedition against the ''chief of the Kheta" was undertaken because he organized a coalition of all Syria against Egypt. This act, by the way, if the inscription is to be trusted, terminated, for good, a case of relations that had existed a good many years before Rameses made the treaty of record, as is shown by an allusion to treaties made between Sety I, of Egypt, and Marsar, of Kheta, and another concluded by Horemheb, of Egypt, and Saparuru, of Kheta. (See Appendix — The Battle of Kadesh.) The ambassadors we hear of before Tarte-sebu and Rames seem to have acted in the capacity of parliamentary. Their person seems to have been secure in all cases. The very first instance of this brought to our attention by the records of the Ancients dates back to 2960 B. C. Diplomatic Privileges of Ancient Origin The practice of giving safe conduct to ambassadors is an old and universal one, and was necessary if the person charged with communicat- ing with an enemy or foreign court was to discharge his duties. Even savages have subscribed to the inviolability of the person of an ambassa- dor, which is nothing unusual since both sides were obliged to reckon with the possibility of having to send a parliamentary. The case is one of self-interest and the surprising thing about it is that in our own days this very simple matter has expanded into a good many f oolsome notions, 14 THE CRAFT SINISTER known collectively as the giving of diplomatic privileges. In addition to extending extra-territoriality to the seat of a diplomatic mission, be U embassy or legation, governments subscribe to, and guarantee, the inviolability of the telegraphic dispatches, in cypher or texte claire, and the mail of a diplomatic mission. When censorship has completely de- prived the ordinary citizen of the right to use the telegraph, cable and mails, without having the censors know the full contents of the dispatch or letter, diplomatists, provided the "privileges" have not been withdrawn, as happened so often during the War, may telegraph, cable and write in letters what they please. The diplomatic courier, in charge of a mail bag, is about the only individual in mufti who in times of war can cross the borders of belligerent countries without being subjected to the closest search. There are many minor privileges which are granted members of the diplomatic service. They may import and export whatever they please, and without paying customs dues. Misdemeanors and even crimes are made the subject of diplomatic correspondence instead of being aired in the municipal courts of a country. There is a case on record in which a diplomatist shot and killed several persons without suffering greater punishment for it than comes of being transferred to another and better post. The life of a diplomatist on post is one long ceremonial. While the foreign offices have now generally ruled that diplomatic callers will be received in order of their arrival, strict attention is still paid to the rules of precedence at official functions to which ambassadors and ministers and their secretaries are invited. The dean of the corps diplomatique, as the ranking resident ambassador is usually known, is a person whose dis- pleasure it will not pay to invite. To his equipment for the post he holds belongs a knowledge, and a thorough one, of one of the most intricate set of social rules known. Great tact is necessary besides, though the tendency, now evident in most capitals, to give precedence to ambassadors and ministers in accord with length of service at the post has much reduced the possibility of friction which existed in the days when diplomatists insisted that the relative standing of the ruler they represented was also to be considered in assigning them places at banquet tables, or in the lines that are formed at receptions and similar affairs at court. To be punc- tilious in the extreme is considered not only proper, but absolutely neces- sary by some diplomatists, especially that class which by the newcomers in the service is styled, as has ever been the case, the "old school." There is a popular impression that ambassadors and ministers are accredited by one government to another government. Such is not the case. In addition to having greatly magnified the inviolability of the person DIPLOMATIC PRIVILEGES OF ANCIENT ORIGIN 15 of an ambassador, handed to us by the Ancients, we have clung tenaciously to the habit of having ambassadors and ministers seem the personal repre- sentatives of kings and presidents. So far as this concerns the United States, I may mention that the American chief of mission is not ac- credited by the State Department to some foreign office, but by the presi- dent personally to the person of the foreign potentate. Instructions to a chief of mission come as a rule from the branch of the government charged with the care of foreign affairs, the State Department in the case of the United States. The ambassador or minister on the other hand addresses all of his communications to the same branch of the government. That arrangement does not preclude, however, that the actual head of the government also address his representative, or that the latter place himself in direct communication with the head of the government in case he is invited to do so, or thinks that departure from the regular practice proper. When the chief of a diplomatic mission is absent, or possibly prevented from attending to his duties by sickness, the diplomatist next to him, usually the so-called conseiller, or counselor, assumes the name of charge d'aif aires and as such charges himself with the affairs of the post, be it embassy or legation — that is, he attends to the duties of the chief of the mission, known as chef de mission. All terms and designations in the diplomatic service are French, because it is the language in which, less rigorously now than formerly, the intercourse between the foreign government and the diplomatic missions is still effected. Hence such terms as here already used and such others as these: Note, note verhale, memoire, conversation, pourparlers, laissez-passer, passeporte and many others. Diplomats Receive Scant Salsuries In addition to the conseiller, each diplomatic mission has a number of secretaries, known as first, second, third and so on. These men, too, despite the fact that their pay is usually a mere pittance, subscribe, among themselves even, to precedence, as will their wives at social events. Need- less to say, the secretaries, not forgetting the military and naval attaches, and the commercial experts, diplomatic agents, and what not, are generally people with enough private income to make them independent of the small salary paid by the majority of governments. If they do not have such incomes they will not stay in the service long. To be a poor diplo- matist is nothing short of wasting one's life entirely. The lesser secretaries and clerks of a diplomatic post concern them- selves with routine matters, such as issuing and viseing passports, getting 16 THE CRAFT SINISTER a compatriot out of trouble occasionally, especially after he has appealed to the government at home through his senator. I make special reference to this because normally it is next to impossible to interest an American diplomatist in the troubles of an American citizen, except upon special instruction from the State Department. The United States diplomatic and consular services are notorious for this the world over. The popular notion that in times of peace the post of ambassador is purely decorative, and that his function is confined to delivering with due decorum the communications of the government he represents, and receiving others in a like manner, is more of a fallacy in many cases than has been thought. It takes a war to bring out at least some truths. The Great War made it only too apparent that some of the ambassadors in Europe had not been entirely messenger boys, as I propose showing here. At the same time I must state that the United States diplomatic representatives seem to have occupied themselves with little enough before the outbreak of the War. It has been brought to light that diplomatists of the balance of power in Europe, to wit: The Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente, had been very busy for some years preceding the general debacle. Upon orders from their governments and upon personal initiative, these men, if not actually trying to avert the immediate coming of the disaster, did their best to postpone its advent until the moment when a declaration of war would be most propitious to their own side. Diplomatists, as a rule are not patriots of the rabid sort. For all that they are patriotic enough, though their sentiments in that respect are somewhat colored by personal and professional interests. Especially is this true of the so-called arrivistes — men who are prone to shape diplomacy to suit their own ends. An individual of that type will walk on the brink of war for months in the hope that ultimately he may settle to his own profit a situation he may have artificially caused in order to get an opportunity for the display of his talents. To describe the operations of a diplomatist may be very simple and again it may be most difficult. It depends upon the government whom he represents and its affiliations in world politics, and, again, upon his standing at his locale or post. A diplomatic representative of the United States, for instance, has very little to do in normal times. In the course of a week he might call once or twice at the foreign office, just to show his face, as it were, and now and then he may actually have to handle a small case. Once or twice a year he would attend some state function at court, present the congratulations of the president on the occasion of the ruler's birthday and do as much on his own behalf on the anniversary of the premier, possibly the minister of foreign aflfairs, and such other DIPLOMATS RECEIVE SCANT SALARIES 17 high officials as he might have come to know. His official business ended with that. The United States was not mixing in the politics of Europe, and for that reason the ambassador or minister had ample time in which to cultivate his social opportunities, if so inclined, and usually he was that inordinately. It was rather different with the European diplomatists at the capitals of the World Powers. Most of them had a rather strenuous time of it always. When it was no affair of their own government, or of the government to which they were accredited, that concerned them, it was the real or fancied activity of a fellow diplomatist that kept them occu- pied. There was always the danger that this or that government might be interested in a rapprochement with the government of his post, and if he could not do anything to prevent its perfection he at least had to keep his government informed on what was being attempted or actually done. Generally it was not the fait accompli that bothered these men to any extent. It was the making of such accomplished facts that caused them to keep their wits ever sharp and their minds ever alert — ^that is to say, if they understood not only their business but their duty, which in the diplo- matist are two separate things. In preventing another diplomatist stealing a march on them, the ambassadors and ministers in Europe found their regular staff of attaches very useles generally. At best the conseiller and secretaries could act as intermediaries between the chef de mission and the many private informers who were willing to be of use for a consideration. Informers of that sort were not rare, of course. They might rank from an underpaid sons- secretaire, who in order to be a hero at some cabaret sold the secrets of his government, to the person who emptied the wastepaper baskets in the ^foreign office or got away with the blotters that might reveal some secret in a telltale mirror. The servants of high government officials also were sought for, and above all it was important to have somebody on intimate terms with the lady that was supposed to be bestowing her affection upon men active in foreign affairs. Diplomacy as Seen Ad Hominem But that sort of work did not stop here. It was necessary that the several members of the diplomatic corps spy upon one another. In fact, there were several embassies in London, Paris, Petrograd, Berlin and Vienna that needed much closer watching than either Downing Street, the Quai d'Orsay, Novski Prospect, the Wilhelmstrasse or the Ballhaus- platz. The modus operandi was similar to that employed in the case of the foreign office. Lucky was always the man who managed to get into \ v 18 THE CRAFT SINISTER the confidence, second hand, of course, of the matt r esse of the ambassador who was credited with evil designs. Since ambassadors seem to have a failing for such attachment, much of Europe's politics before the War was shaped and reshaped via the boudoir. The world will marvel at this, or should do so. That the sweet lips of a diplomatic sweetheart should have contributed to the killing of 7,254,000 able-bodied men, the maiming for life of millions of others, the starvation and death of millions of infants and adults and the wasting of, roundly, $450,000,000,000 seems incredible. Yet such is the fact. World politics reduced to cases ad hominem are a very queer spectacle. Before I attempt to say more of this let me remind of the attitude of the public to almost anybody connected with the diplomatic service. To be in the diplomatic service was considered a great distinction. With- out being in any way entitled to it, the average diplomatist, and that is putting it mildly, was surrounded by a nimbus that would have done honor to any saint. Without wishing at all to appear facetious I would say that diplomatists before the Great War were awe-inspiring figures to the average mortal. I hasten to make the same assurance before I say that they seemed to be the last of the gods — remnants of the Gotterdam- merung, whom the iconoclast had overlooked. Nor can it be said that some men in the diplomatic service did not deserve some such tribute. The ambassador who can keep his country out of war deserves prompt translation to the Elysian fields. A few men have actually done that and very many have claimed that they did it. A fine foundation, indeed, for the credulity of the masses. Those who were not familiar enough with the ins and outs of diplomacy to know this knew, at least, that the diplomatist always had it in his hands to start a war when he saw fit. Such, at least, was another popular notion concerning ambassa- dors. Since man is so constituted that he reveres the evil god as much as the good deity it really made not much difference which of the two versions was the base of the reverence brought the diplomatist. After all did not one's own government show such a person all the consideration that could be shown? Many of the men in the diplomatic service knew this well enough and, being after all but human beings, they enjoyed it. Successful men of affairs especially had their fancies tickled when contemplating them- selves in the circles of awe-struck friends as a diplomatist, who could deny that he was a modern Atlas but infer by his mien that he really was that and much more. It was for this reason, and for the wife's social ambitions, that many a man contributed to a political campaign fund until it hurt on the promise that, his party winning, he would be made ambassador to this or that court. DIPLOMACY AS SEEN AD HOMINBM 19 The United States government has been especially culpable in that respect, though hardly more so than some of the other governments that needed but a so-called figurehead in the European capitals. Diplomacy in Europe was thought so innocuous by most of the American governments that it became common practice down to Cape Horn to sell diplomatic posts to the highest bidder. At one time even the secretaries were appointed in this manner. The reforms instituted by the late Mr. Roosevelt changed that, however. Diplomatic secretaries, together with their much-disliked confreres in the consular service, were expected to know something after that — a little of international law and good social deportment at any rate. Up to that time it had been nothing unusual to have United States diplomatic secre- taries who employed in their speech the double negative. Not that a man of such social handicaps may not be a good man. The fact is that he is hardly an ornament to the corps diplomatique at a capital of a World Power. At Sofia he might do; at Vienna, for instance, never. Governments having big stakes in the European political situation were more particular, though not alwa3''s as fortunate, in the appointment of ambassadors and ministers. The safest way to keep out of trouble in a country where one's interests are small was to have as chef de mission a wealthy man interested in nothing but his own glory and the social advancement of his wife and daughters. The great powers of Europe were not in a position to follow this rule. The European Professional Diplomatist The diplomatists in the service of the World Powers were of the strictly professional type. All of them had enjoyed the preferments of ^ good education and an efficient nursery. Station and a moderate amount of private income was theirs. For some years at least they had been trained in their craft in the foreign office. After that they had been given a small secretaryship. In the course of time they had become conseiller, then minister and later ambassador, provided they belonged, in the case of Germany and Austria-Hungary, to either the Ho chad el or Uradel — high nobility or archaic nobility in free translation, or were of enough importance otherwise, which was none too often the case. For rapid advancement in Germany it was necessary to have studied at Bonn or Heidelberg so that one might belong to the student fraternity known as the Borussia, to which the male members of the Hohenzollern dynasty have belonged for many generations. In Russia the case was much the same, though nobility per se was riot the open sesame it was in the Central Empires. If one had enough 20 THE CRAFT SINISTER money one could get into the diplomatic service without much trouble. If one had enough political backing one could become an ambassador after a reasonable length of service in minor capacities. France followed more or less the same plan. Money was a great consideration also to become diplomat e de carrier c, and if one had enough senators and ex- senators to promote one's aspirations, an ambassadorship could be had. Great Britain's method does not differ much from this, though now and then a fat post is; given to a deserving politician of the statesman type. What has been said in these three instances applied more or less to every other government in Europe. Always one of the prime prerequi- sites was that the aspirant for diplomatic honor have sufficient private means to look upon the small salary paid him as enough to meet his pourboires. A little ability, a great deal of training, and much inborn savoir faire constituted the purely personal qualifications. Political and social backing did the rest. The diplomatic service almost everywhere looks upon itself as a sort of cult. The caste has social rites of its own and is extremely exclusive. So long as the man in the service is below middle age he is prone to be a most exasperating snub towards inferiors, socially and officially, while towards his superiors, and they are not many, he will show a certain amount of servility without feeling it, as a rule. There is one thing which the diplomatist learns quite early in his career: To have a good opinion of himself and to feign self-assurance so long as he does not actually have this. He is very much of an enfant gatee of his government, and the government to which he is accredited, from each of which he takes a goodly share of the infallibility that is accorded such institutions by the complacent public. To feel that the organization to which one is so V closely allied is infallible is an invitation to conceit which few men can withstand. Governments themselves never admit that their diplomatic service is capable of making mistakes. In the chancelleries that notion is not held, of course, but toward the public that deception must be kept up. The diplomatist, therefore, finds it easy to preserve that superiority which to the uninitiated seems all too real. A government may be open to attack in the press in all other respects, but, strange to say, it is a rare occurrence to see its diplomatic service criticised from the point of view of personnel. The service is sacrosanct. It is this for the reason that it is recruited, gen- erally, from the classes whose influence is great ; that is so poorly paid in most cases, and, finally, that it has always been treading on thin ice to inquire too deeply into any of the things that concern the holy precincts of a foreign office or state department. The older professional diplomatists discard some of the silly notions THE EUROPEAN PROFESSIONAL DIPLOMATIST 21 they held in their own novitiate. They are no longer the enthusiasts of youth. In the course of years they have learned that much in life is futile. The plaint of Koheleth that vanitas vanitatum vanitas so much is governed here below, comes to have a great meaning to them. At first they become cynics, and later, provided there is enough of the milk of human kindness left in them, benign pessimists. A life in which deceit and simulation is the daily portion, so far as one's own conduct is con- cerned, and in which the words and acts of others must be regarded with the keenest skepticism, is bound to leave the mind in that frame. Thor- oughly disillusioned, these men may come to the point where honesty is a salve to them — a balm of Gilead as hard to find as the thing Diogenes looked for with a lantern in the streets of Athens. On the Mentality of Diplomatists I have before made the statement that diplomatists are patriots of a somewhat peculiar stripe. The good diplomatist is never a ranter. He knows the enemy people and their problems too well by the time he might harangue against them, and has too fine a conception of dignity withal to contribute to the flood of abuse that is heaped upon men and women who before the declaration of war may have been thought ever so good. It is the diplomatist who realizes, more than anybody else, that war is the continuation of diplomacy with other means. He knows that war has come simply because the peace means of diplomacy failed. Whether or no he had a share in the bringing on of the disaster, he under- stands on how little the fate of international relations often turns. In addition to that he realizes that his diplomatic career in the future might be adversely influenced by what he could say. Certain it is that every foreign office in the world would give the closest attention to his utter- ances and that would be enough to make him persona non grata. To have spoken at all would be considered a faux pas. The talking diplo- matist does not remain a diplomatist long; promotion at least is out of the question. What the government exacts from its diplomatic service it expects of the diplomatists of other governments. Thus it happens that the diplomatist to whom the passports were handed does not, as a rule, reappear on the scene during the period of hostilities. My own experience is that most of these men could not be induced to talk. There is no human being that can be wholly indiflferent to the facts of life. The diplomatist may defy them for years in the routine of his activity, but he cannot deny them. When war comes and the flood gates of vituperation and calumny are down the decent diplo- matist (if there be such a thing) remains generally the only one who 22 THE CRAFT SINISTER has nothing to say. He knows what the facts in the case are, and even if he should not know all of them he understands his metier too well to accept that all is so very onesided. The pretexts advanced by the parties at war do not interest him personally. He may take a professional interest in them, but knows that back of them lies a cause far greater than he \ could regulate or direct. War is to him a detail of the laws of nature. He realizes, more than any other class and individual, that before war can be eliminated man generally must improve. Men of that type are likely to be included in what the younger element in the diplomatic service is fond of calling: The Old School. I'here has always been an old and a new school in diplomacy, and the distinction has been made either by the newcomers in the service or by the arrivistes, who found the sane and conservative men de carrier e in the way. In recent years the young and arrivist diplomatists have drawn the line between themselves and their elders where Metternichism and the "new diplomacy" were supposed to meet. The trouble with this was that this new diplomacy was as Machiavellian as the older variety. So long as into the art of negotiation enters a great deal of duplicity, so long will it remain the sharp game of wits it is. There is much more comraderie in the corps diplomatique at a capital than is generally found among members of the same service. It is a notorious fact that relations between the embassies and legations are much more sincere and congenial than they are within the confines of the mission itself, or within the same service. The trip made by Colonel House to Europe in the winter of 1915-16 was undertaken partly for the purpose of settling the difficulties that existed between the United States ^ diplomatic posts at London, The Hague, Berlin, Vienna and Berne. The chefs de mission at these points did not agree with one another on any- thing. There was a great deal of interference with one another's affairs. Quite early in the War, in the fall of 1914, Mr. Henry van Dyke, minister at The Hague, had undertaken, without the least authority, to examine the mails of Mr. James W. Gerard, ambassador at Berlin. In these mails Mr. van Dyke had found matter which he thought did not belong there, and, though not enjoying the powers of a censor, so far as the others knew, he had destroyed some of this matter, as on one occasion he stated to me. Naturally, the Berlin embassy did not like this. Mr. Gerard him- self was not anxious to have his diplomatic mail littered with matter of that sort, but, and properly so, took the stand that his mail was as invio- late at the hands of a brother diplomatist as it was supposed to be at the hands of the government to which he was accredited. A little later the London embassy undertook to take over the duty The Hague legation had charged itself with. The result was more ON THE MENTALITY OF DIPLOMATISTS 23 friction. The United States embassy at Vienna had trouble when Mr. Frederic C. Penfield, its chief, began to use the diplomatic mail and courier to import from London such articles of apparel as men of means will buy, and such tidbits of the table as the Vienna market offered no longer. An attempt after that to get these things via Paris caused the United States legation at Berne to worry. One thing led to another, and for a time it seemed as if the several United States diplomatic missions in Central Europe were about to break off relations with one another. The good offices of Colonel House prevented war. Incidents of that sort are not confined to any particular service, however, though in this instance they degenerated into an affair between \ fishwives. As a rule, the members of the same service have great difficulty being civil to one another, except it be that they have made '" special pacts to promote one another. A world that thinks entirely in terms of treaties, alliances and ententes is all too apt to spread over its private affairs the varnish of its official conduct — its profession. De Schelking, in his book, ^'Recollections of a Russian Diplomat," tells the rather interesting story how Baron von Schon, of the German diplomatic service, and ambassador in Paris at the outbreak of the War, and M. Isvolski, of the Russian diplomatic service, and ambassador in Paris also at the coming of the debacle, made a pact years before at Copenhagen to promote one another's interests. The two men were then on post at the Danish capital, not the most hopeful place in Europe. It was decided that Schon should get to Petrograd as German ambassador, while Isvolski was to be Russian ambassador at Berlin. A piece of international deviltry which they had promoted in the interest of Russia and Germany and to the detriment of Denmark in the summer of 1905 was to be the fulcrum of the scheme, the promotion of better relations between the two empires the lever. In the end they succeeded in promoting one another, though not as per schedule. Isvolski was made minister of foreign affairs, a post he held from 1906 to 1909, while Schon ultimately was appointed ambas- sador at Paris, where Isvolski found him later on, and where the two together saw what had become of the great scheme they were a part of. I quote the case as a good illustration of how the "good" relations between governments and nations may have a purely personal basis and * what diplomatists can do when they set their minds to it. While this was going on, Russia was bound to France by a treaty of alliance, and there were times when this treaty might have become a scrap of paper overnight. The Russian minister of foreign affairs, Isvolski, was still the same Isvolski who made the pact with Schon, and the Russian ambassador at Paris, Isvolski, while in the course of time he might have changed, was 24 THE CRAFT SINISTER still a man susceptible to influences that were not particularly pro-French nor in any way too friendly to the Franco-Russian entente. A Hjrpothetical Demonstration of Diplomacy There is no situation in international affairs that is too much for two diplomatists of influence and ability who have made up their minds to change it. Indeed, one of them can do it, if he be unscrupulous enough. The means at his disposal, especially the fact that he can always falsely \ incriminate any government and diplomatic mission, make that perfectly simple. His government will always believe him. It will never believe another government or its representative. Even if the facts ultimately corroborate the protestant's statement, skepticism will remain. It will be said that the entente or alliance, or whatever it was the falsely accused wished to engineer, was not carried into being and effect because something else interfered. In diplomacy all rumors are looked upon as at least half- truths and every false move on the part of a foreign ofiice or diplomatist constitutes a fait accompli. To try at a thing and fail has the same effect as to succeed. The unsuccessful negotiation of a treaty is considered a treaty plus aggression, plus the losing of standing that comes with failure. For the purpose of illustrating this better I will set up a purely hypothetical case. In the capital of Government X is the ambassador of Government A. A has for some time occupied itself with the thought of forming an alliance with X for the purpose of meeting a situation created by Govern- ment Z. That situation may be one that calls for defensive measures or it may be one that spells aggression. A may need more room, more markets, more raw material, an outlet to the sea, a share in a "zone of interest," or any of the things a nation may actually need or merely imagine as necessary. Z, however, is too strong to be attacked without assistance, and A, therefore, decides that X must be inveigled into giving it. Or it may be that the ambitions of Z can be curbed only in this manner. Government X may have its own cares and obligations just then and careful sounding has established that for the time being, at any rate — governments never turn down definitely such overtures — it cannot en- tangle itself. Government A, however, sees in X the only possible, or maybe, logical ally, and instructs its ambassador to bring about the de- sired alliance by any means. It is highly probable that the first diplomatist of ^ who attacks the problem is instructed to limit his efforts of a direct nature to a better understanding between the two governments and nations. With that in A HYPOTHETICAL DEMONSTRATION OF DIPLOMACY 25 view the ambassador of X in the capital of A will be taken in hand and made to feel that he is quite the best diplomatist there ever was. An entente cordiale being established, A sends to the capital of Z an ambassador known to possess the special ability required by the con- ditions existing. At first nothing unusual happens, of course. The new ambassador of A goes out of his way to show that he cares more for social prominence and favors than he does for professional prestige, keeping meanwhile his eyes on the objective that is his. After a while, and at the psychological moment, rumors about Gov- ernment Z begin to float about the capital. They are not especially edi- fying to the Government X, and its foreign office honestly doubts them. The ambassador of X at the capital of Z, however, is instructed by means of a cypher dispatch to be on the lookout for anything that might in any manner shed some light on the report that, let us say, Government Z was anxious to reach a better understanding with Government Y, known already to be not especially friendly to Government X. The ambassador of Government X, being in all matters concerning his duties a conscientious man, thinks the thing over and discovers that some of the happenings and rumors that have come to his attention recently are now better understood. He knows that there is as yet no alliance between Z and Y, but may remember that only last week the foreign minister of Z was unusually cordial to the ambassador of Y, going perhaps so far as to make the audience unduly long at the expense of X, who arrived after ambassador Y. But ambassador X, in order to demonstrate that such a thing could not escape his notice, informs his Foreign Office that, while there is reason to believe that Government Y has shown some uncalled-for friend- liness to the Government Z, there is as yet no ground for the conclusion that an alliance will be formed. No alliance has been effected so far, of course, and the ambassador will continue to watch developments with the care he has given the matter ever since the first signs of a desire for a rapprochement on the part of Y with Government Z came to his attention. He gives the assurance that as yet nothing has occurred that would have justified him to make a report. The Foreign Office of X is not wholly satisfied with this report, but waits until it has heard from its ambassador in the capital of Y. That personage may be frank enough to say that nothing has been heard at his post of such endeavor on the part of Government Y, which would be natural enough since the petitioner would be obliged to make his presentations at the capital of Z through its ambassador. But this diplomatist also will have grown at least a little suspicious, and, together with his confrere at the capital of Z, he will begin to watch 26 THE CRAFT SINISTER for evidence showing that a rapprochement between Governments Z. and Y is fait accompli. When next the minister of foreign affairs of Z or Y has occasion, at a banquet, let us assume, to use the usual formula in referring to the relations between the two countries as especially good, the harm is done. Though the foreign office of X may know perfectly well that no secret treaty of alliance has been made, as it will know if it be worth its salt, press and public of X will look upon the situation as grave. A treaty of alliance against X is said to exist and after that Government A will not have to wait so very long before X is willing to make a "similar" treaty, this time a real one. War is the next step. It would serve no purpose whatsoever did Government Z and Y protest just before the break that there was no such alliance between them. Such a statement would be looked upon as another violation of confidence and a further endangering of the world's peace, so far as the combined public opinion in the countries of A and X is concerned. To the Govern- ment X such a protest would seem a sparring for time in order that Z and Y might select a better moment for the attack, while Government A would forget for good and always what its own share in the matter was. Diplomacy in such instances knows but one rule and guide: ''Qui s excuse, s'accuse." Ill THE TRIPLE ALUANCE THE utter debacle of the mad military expedition into Russia in 1812 and the resulting rising in Prussia in the following year set the star of Napoleon Bonaparte. Among the very ashes of France's dream of liberty, which in the hands of the Corsican opportunist had become the instrument of wildcat imperialism, was formed in September, 1815, by Alexander I, of Russia; Francis I, of Austria, and Frederik William III, of Prussia, an agreement known as the Holy Alliance. Reaction thus followed Radicalism. The pendulum swung once more from one extreme to the other, as it has the habit of doing. Ostensibly the league was formed for the purpose of preserving in Europe "peace, justice and religion," all three of which had been endangered by the French, as it was seen at the time. Great Britain did not join the pact, because, after the fall of Napoleon, she was content with letting the Continent attend to its own affairs. So long as her shores and her colonies were secure, European situations did not greatly interest her statesmen nor worry her public. The Holy Alliance was later joined by all the sovereigns on the Continent, with the exception of the Pope, who seems to have realized, as did Pope Leo X in 1519 in connection with a similar pact, that the protection of religion by a combination of monarchs and their governments was not to the best interests of the Church. The Catholics of France had to be won back, moreover, and were willing to return to the flock, now that the Reign of Reason was over — now that Reason had shown herself rather incompetent in dealing with matters highly abstract. There was nothing to be gained, therefore, by the Holy See in joining an alliance that was unnatural enough despite its quite natural composition. To the men in the Vatican, whatever their faults, must be left the recognition that they have been fine students of human nature. The limits of the feasible have ever been clear to them, and so it came that the papacy did not join the Holy Alliance, despite the fact that Austria always had been far more the daughter of the Church than was France. This "League of Nations," like its forerunner, the League of 1518-19, did not endure for long. In 1830 it was dead. The league started with an act of violence and gross injustice. The monarchs of Russia, Austria 27 28 THE CRAFT SINISTER and Prussia divided Poland once more — in the interest of world peace, of course; actually because they coveted the territory. At the Congress of Vienna Metternich had an able opponent in the person of Talleyrand, but the fact is that the former had force with him, and force has always been the best argument at the peace table. To plead morality is well enough, but it is the number of battalions which shapes the provisions of the treaty. In the same year the Orleanists reconverted France into a monarchy, and for a time it seemed as if liberal institutions in Europe were to be banished again. But the reaction that was setting in was due to popular disapproval of tyranny by the masses. There have always been some who would prefer government by a single despot to government by a million tyrants, as a people misled by the demagogue is only too prone to be. But common sense was far better in the saddle than the reactionaries believed. The revolutionary wave that swept over Europe in the forties wrung concessions from many a government, induced even the Prussian king to grant to the people a somewhat hamstrung Constitution. After all, the French Revolution had made the world a little better — would have made it much better had it not gone to such terrible extremes. The revolution in France of 1848 re-established the republic for the short spell of four years, when a pseudo-Napoleon came to the throne. It seemed that the several experiments with republicanism made in Europe up to that time did not meet the popular view, and for the next eighteen years only Switzerland, and if San Marino and Andorra count in such matters, they also, continued a form of government well suited, apparently, to their needs. The remainder of Europe fell back to the "divine-right" system of government. For a time Emperor Alexander II, of Russia, was by far the most liberal monarch in Europe. The Prussian kings and the other German overlords regretted what rights and guarantees they had given their people in the "Forties." In Hungary the Magyar class, ably supported from Vienna, worked hard to return to feudalism and, in a measure, succeeded. In Italy, on the other hand, men were at work "redeeming" the country, politically only, to be sure, but not without bettering the lot of the people so freed. A period was set these socio-economic and socio-political ups and downs by the raid of Prussia and Austria upon Denmark in 1864, their quarrel over the spoils and other differences in 1866, the formation of the North German Union, and the war of a united Germany, under Prussian leadership, with France, 1870-1871. Up to the attack by Prussia and Austria on Denmark in 1864 the political affairs of the continent of Europe had been rather chaotic, and I THE TRIPLE ALLIANCE 29 the landhunger of three of the leading powers having been appeased by the partition of Poland, peace for the time being was rather secure. The density of populations, moreover, was not great, and industry had not yet gone to mass production, so that there was no necessity of a wild scramble for markets. Thus it came about that for a while the smaller states were assured of their tomorrow. But a cloud appeared on the horizon when Prussia, by means of the gradual extension of the Zollverein, was slowly making herself the head of an economic and, to some extent, political federation that needed but the touch of a Bismarck to act as an entity, as it did when war broke out between Prussia and France. French statesmen had watched with keen interest and great anxiety the gradual congealment into a formidable unit of the formerly disrupted neighbors in the East. The fact that a highly efficient Prussia was at the head of the combination, a Prussia that had wiped out the kingdom of Hanover, the Duchy of Brunswick and the old Kurhessia, and which was now supreme on the Rhine, did not in any way tend to allay the fears of the French. That being the case, a very flimsy pretext was used by the French government to bring on war with Prussia.* The enterprise ended diastrously for France. The loss of Alsace-Lorraine and five billion francs indemnity was all that could be shown by the French when the peace treaty of Versailles had been signed. On the other hand, France was once more a republic. Whether or no, from the viewpoint of national biology, that was a benefit only the future can show. The Three Emperors' Alliance Superseded Germany was now an empire once more. The emperor of Austria dismissed his claims to the German imperial crown and shortly afterward became a constituent of the Three Emperors* League, of which Czar Alexander III, of Russia; Emperor William I, of Germany, and Emperor Francis Joseph, of Austria-Hungary, were the members. For a time this arrangement seemed to suffice to preserve the balance of power in Europe, for which there was now a necessity. It seemed also that the Three Emperors' League would for many years, decades, perhaps, remain the major political fact in Europe. But that was not to be. In 1884, at Skyernewice, the league was renewed for another term of three years, and when 1887 came around it was found that the league had become obsolete. * "Napoleon II a declare, sans rime nt raison, la guerra aux Russes, aux Autrichiens, aux Mexicaines, aux Prussiens, et iinalement il nous a fait enlever I'Alsace et la Lorraine, sans Parler des milliards xx payer." — A French School Book. "^'Instruction Civique." — Paul Bert. 30 THE CRAFT SINISTER Two factors contributed to this: In 1882 there had been made between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy a treaty, which later became known as the Triple Alliance. That this alliance did not immediately supercede the Three Emperors' League is due to the fact that, though Austria-Hungary and Italy had fairly well ironed out their difficulties, Italy was still considered an unsichercr Kan- tonist — uncertain "customer" — by the statesmen in Germany and Austria- Hungary. Nor was it ever clear whether, after all, the military power of Italy considered, the Italians were not more of a charge than a help in a defensive alliance. The attitude assumed at the outbreak of the Great War by the Italian government that the terms of this treaty did not oblige her to side with Austria-Hungary on the ground that Austria- Hungary had attacked instead of being attacked, while Germany adhered to the spirit of the document, seems to justify the fears always entertained by a large number of German and Aiustro- Hungarian statesmen, which very recently indeed had been voiced frankly by Kiderlen Waechter, prede- cessor of von Jagow, State Secretary of Foreign Affairs. Russia continued a member of the Three Emperors' League after the making of the Triple Alliance, as has been shown. She could well afford to do that, nor was her prestige impaired by not being a member of the alliance. The agreements she made with Germany and Austria- Hungary, through the person of the czar, bound her only for three years at a time and left her hands rather free. Again, Russia derived certain benefits from being a member of the Three Emperors' League. She was almost constantly at odds with Great Britain in regard to points of unfriendly contact along the northern boundaries of India. Gradually the sphere of influence of Russia had been extended southward. A dispute over Afghanistan in 1885 led almost to war, nor had the affair in the Crimea been forgotten yet. There were many in Russia who regarded the Three Emperors* League as a very illiogical combination. Russia was hostile to Great Britain and never went out of her way to let this be forgotten. Germany, on the other hand, had strong dynastic ties with England, and a little unpleasantness at the time of the annexation of Hanover and Brunswick overlooked, the Hohenzollerns had managed to get along very well with the British government and reigning family. The consequence of this was that all the Russian government could expect to find in Berlin, despite the Three Emperors' League, was good advice rather, to keep the peace, than an offer to go to war for the further aggrandizement, eastward, of the Russian empire. Russia's imperialists were not looking for good advice in Berlin. What they wanted was a guarantee from the Gerrrian govern- ment to actively promote Russian interests in case of war between Russia THE THREE EMPEROR'S ALLIANCE SUPERCEDED 31 and Great Britain. This guarantee Bismarck might have given, but Emperor William H never, being in those days intensely Anglophile. This is one of the reasons why the impetuous, young monarch ''dropped his pilot." It must not be overlooked, however, that the attitude taken by William II was not an entirely unreasonable one. Long before there was a "German peril" in the world was there a "Russian peril" in Germany. There were about 160,000,000 Russians of all sorts to 68,000,000 Germans, whose country had but little of natural wealth, while Russia's resources even today have been hardly tapped. Out of these conditions grew the two major of Germany's political tendencies : Orientation toward the East, or orienta- tion toward the West. The latter tendency meant assuming a hostile attitude toward Russia, the former had for its tangible objective an alliance between Germany and Russia, which alliance would have been made had the Berlin government been ready to go to war with Great Britain in the interest of Russia, in addition to placing a premium on Pan-slavism by surrendering to Russia the Balkan states and probably Austria-Hungary. It was not easy to determine which of these was the lesser of two evils. Berlin could not afford to affront either the one or the other, and for that reason did its best to be on good terms with both, St. Petersburg and London, hoping always, it seems, that the parting of the ways would never come. Czar Alexander III was sensible enough to see that this could not be otherwise, and his friendship continued to be enjoyed by William I after the league was a thing of memory. This friendship was even transferred to William II and lasted until the death of the czar in 1894. Alexander was rather reactionary and had little sympathy with repre- sentative and popular institutions. Republics were his bete noire. For this reason he resisted consistently every endeavor to have Russia attached to France with a treaty of alliance. M. de Giers, most prominent of his foreign ministers, also disliked the idea of seeing the autocracy do teamwork with a republic, but in 1893 was obliged to enter into such an alliance. Purpose of Franco-Russian Alliance The alliance between Russia and France was not aimed at Germany, which was the reason why Czar Nicholas and Emperor William II man- aged to maintain the best of relations and even enter into agreements against others. The Franco-Russian entente, as the agreement is popu- larly known, was intended to be a curb upon Great Britain. It was frankly anti-British, as was so often demonstrated during the late Boer War, when Great Britain had hardly a friend in Europe, Emperor William 32 THE CRAFT SINISTER excepted, despite the impulsive telegram he sent to President Kruger on the occasion of the Jamieson Raid. Russia had many grievances against Great Britain, or thought she had, which in international affairs is the same thing. Her animus was founded, however, not on clashes in the Far East and India, but on the deter- mination of Great Britain to retain the Dardanelles and Bosphorus in the peculiar status they had. The Russian Black Sea fleet was prevented by the several treaties that established this status, and later by what was known as the 'Concert of Europe," which in matters affecting the Near E^st was always under the direction of Great Britain, from entering the straits and the Mediterranean, while Russian mercantile shipping was forever at the mercy of the fetwahs of the Turkish sultans, who could close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles whenever they deemed this wise. Such at least was the gravamen Russian statesmen advanced. As a matter of fact, this was stating but half of the case. Long before the Byzantian empire passed away, in 860 and again in 1048, of our era, Russian fleets had attempted to "force" the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. Ever since then it had been the dream of the men in Moscow and St. Peters- burg to make Constantinople their third capital and the Balkan one of their provinces. In addition to being a tremendous economic and political advantage, that plan, if carried out, would have united the Slavs into a single nation, and what was of greater importance even, during the su- premacy of the clergy in Russia, it would have made Constantinople the seat and glory of the Greek Orthodox Church. When Great Britain refused to have Russia navigate the Bosphorus and Dardanelles to her heart's content, Russia felt how bitterly her plan of expansion southward was being opposed by the British. The French also had reason to resent the pretensions of the British about the time the treaty was made with Russia. Quite calmly Great Britain had placed herself in control of the Suez Canal and most of Egypt, to mention but two of the points of hostile contact. The boun- daries of the British and French empires in Africa furnished ample opportunity for more friction, the Fashoda Affair, for instance, and France saw that she needed an ally and a strong one. Relations be- tween Germany and Great Britain continued to be good, and complica- tions with one meant an invitation to the other to strike, as the French viewed it. In addition there was the Levant and its many problems that kept Russia and France meeting on the same ground. In that sphere the two had much in common. France saw in the Balkan, though much more so in Asia Minor, good markets close to her doors. She had been able to meet Italian and Austrian competition. Germany had as yet not PURPOSE OF FRANCO-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE 33 entered this market very strongly, and Great Britain seemed content with getting all the railroad concessions the Turks had to give, without building any of the lines, which was not necessary since railroad concessions in hand are out of reach of the competitor and can be used for political purposes. True enough, the Turks were partial to the French and favored them in many ways. They were also ready to be good friends with the Russians. But it was British anti-Russian diplomacy in Pera that was successful at the Sublime Porte. Turkish and British interests happened to coincide exactly in many respects. The principal question on which Turkish policy, such as it was, and British policy agreed was that the straits of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles should retain the status given them. That status involved a slight infraction of Ottoman sovereignty, in that it made a waterway, which the Turks claimed to be territorial, the subject of international agreement. But it left the Turks in full control of it, pending good behavior, and the Turks, by that time, had learned that it was not well to be too particular in matters affecting British interests. The Ottoman government could have never held for long the straits, if not internationally guaranteed in their possession. Both, the Ottoman and the British govern- ments had to fear that overnight the Russian Black Sea fleet, which was largely maintained for this very purpose, would swoop upon the entrance to the Bosphorus, force entry, take Constantinople, close the Dardanelles at Sid-il-Bahr and explain afterward, as is done in such cases. To Turk and Britisher alike that would have been disastrous. The Ottoman capital would then have been elsewhere again, probably Brussa or Eskishehir in Anatolia, and with Russia in possession of the Black Sea, the Bosphorus, Sea of Marmora and the Dardanelles, British control of the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal would have been problematical, to say the least. That much Great Britain could not risk, and so it came that the Franco^Russian entente was arrived at despite the dislike of a czar, who was logical enough to see that his autocracy could not very well pair itself with a republic, and despite the liberals of France, who, naturally, stuck up their noses when it was first proposed to link la republique to a state as reactionary as Russia. Russia and Germany G>ntinue Friends Instead of drawing asunder, as the result of the entente, Russia and Germany became more attached to each other for a while. In at least one respect had William II heeded the advice of his illustrious grand- father. The founder of the German empire had told his grandson on his deathbed that whatever he did he was to treat with consideration and 34 THE CRAFT SINISTER respect Czar Alexander. William II seems to have carried this out to the letter. Alexander was the only man before whom the impetuous young ruler of Prussia and Germany was ever conscious of a certain degree of that inferiority which youth will feel before the dignified elder. There were two other persons to whom William brought this tribute : Em- peror Francis Joseph, of Austria, and Queen Victoria. While William was on the best of terms with Nicholas of Russia the restraint alluded to was absent, of course. The two men were of about the same age, and, while they advised one another, neither was able to permanently influence his fellow sovereign, a condition that was to make itself felt in the relations of the two empires. The elimination of Prince Bismarck had left William not only a free hand in German internal affairs — to get that free hand the emperor dis- missed the chancellor — but it also started Germany on a dangerous career in foreign politics. There is no doubt that William was actuated by the best of motives. He wanted his empire to grow and grow rapidly. Bismarck was committed to slower methods, it seems, for none knew better that gradual evolution is the best for a state, especially a state which had grown into an empire overnight from a conglomerate of states and prin- cipalities which none had feared in the past for the reason that their own difficulties and differences, and the fancied divergences of interest, had made them a danger more to one another than to their foreign neighbors. The death of Czar Alexander took from William a curb — ^the last one — which Germany could ill afford to lose. With this restraint gone, the German emperor began to enwallow his people, entirely by utterances that were indiscreet and injudicious, in a slough of international com- plications that led from one crisis to another. Czar Nicholas had taken over from his father, as foreign minister, M. de Giers, a Russian statesman and diplomatist of what was then known as the Old School. De Giers was decidedly pro-German and anti- British, a great admirer of Bismarck and a stout adherent of the principle of the Three Emperors' League. He had finally entered the Franco- Russian pact, but only against Great Britain. He knew, of course, that the French hoped to kill two flies with this stone, Germany and the British Empire, but had no reason to believe, at that time, that the entente would in the end find the application it had. In conformity with his policy, he promoted as much as possible the marriage of Nicholas to Princess Alice of Hesse-Darmstadt, who, though the daughter of a princess-royal of Great Britain and granddaughter of Queen Victoria, was German enough to take care for a time of German interests at the court of St. Petersburg. M. de Giers was succeeded as Russian minister of foreign affairs by Prince Lobanoff, a man whose greatest achievement has been that he RUSSIA AND GERMANY CONTINUE FRIENDS 35 ran away with the wife of a secretary of the French embassy at Vienna. Lobanoff was a Germanophobe and an intriguant of the most vicious type. He opposed the match between Nicholas and AHce to the best of his abihty, but the de Giers element in the Russian capital, and its counterpart in Germany, succeeded in their plan, all the easier since there was a great deal of natural attachment between the two. Europe's Three Political Camps For several years after that Europe was divided into three political camps. The Triple Alliance, which, despite its weak elements — the ineffi- ciency of Austria-Hungary and the untrustworthiness of Italy — made the three component states sufficiently secure against attack; the Franco- Russian alliance, directed against Great Britain, so far as Russia was concerned, and against Great Britain and Germany in the case of France, and, finally. Great Britain herself, constituting then the object of an isolation policy, unintentional so far as the Triple Alliance was concerned, intentional in case of the Dual Alliance of France and Russia. The result of this was that Great Britain came to adhere more and more to the policies taught her by her own history and geographical location, of which the two-power standard of her naval program was the most important. It had been shown that from the Triple Alliance Great Britain had nothing to fear. The governments forming it had been uniformly friendly to Great Britain in the past. England had had no serious difficulties with any of the German states. Her relations with Austria-Hungary had been the best for generations, and Italy was not a serious factor in world politics at that time. For all that the Triple Alliance left Great Britain a little in the cold, as it were. The interests of an allied group multiply with the cube of the number of allies, and to feel that one has the power of an alliance to back up one's plans and ambitions is not calculated to further the interests, nor promote the good feeling, of a state which stands alone, and has, in addition, a pact between two strong states directed against it. The Dual Alliance was frankly hostile to Great Britain, and there is no telling what would have happened had not William II and Francis Joseph held Queen Victoria in too high an esteem to permit them to view vvith complacency any attempt to strike at the British when the moment was ripe — during the late Boer War, for instance, when overtures to that effect were actually made at Berlin and Vienna. There is a great deal of evidence to prove that Berlin and Vienna did not look upon the Triple Alliance as the means of aggression in those days. Italy continued to limp in loyalty and military strength. William overlooked no opportunity to make the French feel that better 36 THE CRAFT SINISTER relations between Germany and France were not as impossible as the French chauvinists thought. To be sure, there was always an element of condescension in these efforts, as the French viewed it. But that may have been due to the fact that the people of France could not but look upon the Germans as conquerors, who had taken from them two provinces and five billion francs, in addition to humbling la grande nation on the battlefield. At any rate William was never so proud in his life as when the French government consented to place under the command of a German general. Count von Waldersee, the military contingent it contributed to the expedition against the Boxers. It would seem that in those days Germany had the last of her good statesmen. Count Caprivi was a great success as chancellor, despite the criticism that was heaped upon him. Under him Germany had more friends than she had ever had before and has had since. Prince Hohen- lohe, married to a member of one of the most influential families in Russia, the Wittgensteins, bettered relations with that country wonder- fully, and even Prince von Buelow had a modest measure of success. German diplomacy was rather successful then — which diplomacy easily is when the government represented has friends. Good or bad diplomacy is not by any means so much a question of personnel as is generally believed. Against antipathy for his government and state the best diplo- matist is absolutely powerless. A good illustration of this is had in the case of Baron Marschall von Bieberstein, a man looked upon by many Germans as the best diplomatist they had had in generations. Baron Marschall has to his credit the fact that he was the only German diplomatist who managed to get along with the French and was held in high esteem by them. It was he who pro- moted the rapprochement between Turkey and Germany, did the ground- work for the Bagdad railroad and brought the German military mission imder von der Goltz Pasha to Constantinople. Later he was sent to London, where he died — all too soon. The interesting feature of the case is that Baron Marschall was a typical "Prussian" — a man of brusk manners, but withal sincere and forceful of character. Though his suc- cesses in Constantinople had not left British influence in Turkey better off, he was well received in London and enjoyed not only the esteem but also the confidence of the British government. The Triple Entente Puts in Appearance The diplomacy involved in the conditions here outlined was on the whole very simple. The situation in Europe called for direct action in most cases. Intrigue could accomplish nothing which a reasonable modicum of frankness did not achieve. Between Berlin, Vienna and THE TRIPLE ENTENTE PUTS IN APPEARANCE 37 Rome there were no issues that called for diplomacy, giving the word its sinister meaning, nor were these capitals interested in creating situa- tions elsewhere. St. Petersburg had made up its mind to reap the fruits of the Franco-Russian pact, but did not rely solely upon that agreement, taking good care to have Germany as a potential ally, through the medium of the two emperors. Paris, however, had to continue cultivating Russian friendship, largely by means of loans, and London for the time being relied on the strength of the British empire and the great probability that her statesmen and diplomatists could easily find a place in either of the two camps in case of trouble. Moreover, there was Britain's mighty fleet of war, and, with the exception of the Grover Cleveland administration, the government of the United States could be considered a potential ally, the British government having seen to it that the stage was set and the lines written for the necessary blood-is-thicker-than-water comedy. Mr. Hay, as Secretary of State, and Lord Pouncefote as British ambassador at Washington were the first high contracting parties in the "gentlemen's agreement" made. Neither the open hostility of the Russian government nor the con- cealed animus of the French perturbed the British. The fulsome exuber- ancy which characterized expression in the French press at the time the czar and czarina visited Paris left the British public calm. Though every phrase had been whittled for British consumption, the men in London also saw that some of the veiled threats between sentences were meant for Germany. For the time being, then, the Franco-Russian alliance bad no definite direction, so that it would always be possible to still shape its final course. Ultimately the prime motive of the pact was overlooked and Great Britain made the arrangement serve her own purpose. That was statesmanship of the highest order. But it is possible that it was more the general situation throughout Europe than lack of ability that prevented the leaders in government elsewhere from being statesmen instead of mere politicians. The statesman is a politician who can foresee what an act of his will result in, not only tomorrow, but twenty years hence, while the politician is a statesman who cannot do that. The former must have not only ability, but opportunity as well. He must have space in which to move, in which to exercise his imagination and energy, and such space was not to be found on the continent of Europe at the end of the first decade of the Twentieth Century. So far as the Central Powers were concerned the Triple Alliance, defective as it was, was the full measure of success attainable in a world where "Balance of Power" was become a fetich and the only antidote 38 THE CRAFT SINISTER for war. A rapprochement with the only available state, the Ottoman empire, was the only political expansion now possible. This was effected by Gemiany, despite the fact that Austria-Hungary, her ally, was forever ready to shear the Turk of territory. This was no mean success of German diplomacy, considering that Great Britain had in the past done more than any other power to keep the Sick Man of Europe alive. At the same time it marked the end of a cycle in national and international life. The opportunity for further development was rather better in case of the Franco-Russian alliance. While Great Britain seemed hardly suited to belong to that combination, as her moralists never tired of pointing out, there were several reasons why in the end she would find it profitable to join it, despite the fact that its first purpose had been to put an end to British hegemony. It is really very hard to say whether this twist in international affairs argues for the great ability of the British statesmen or the great stupidity of all others. Be that as it may the men in Berlin lacked all the means, even had they had the ability, to undo what so strange a turn in the in- ternational relations of Europe had brought about. It would be highly unfair to blame them for anything in connection with this fait accompli. Small, indeed, is the number of men in political history who would have been able to meet such a situation along lines of aggression, but one must wonder why the German government did not become more wary and more diplomatic. IV THE TRIPLE ENTENTE INTERNATIONAL affairs, like the conditions affecting the lesser groups of man, overlap one another. They did this in the instance of the arrangement later known as the Triple Entente, and the subject treated in the preceding chapter, the Triple Alliance. The Franco-Russian pact was directed primarily against Great Britain and secondarily, by France at any rate, against Germany and Great Britain. Great Britain was virtually isolated and considered herself totally so when the expansionists of Germany undertook to build a navy com- mensurate, at first, as was said, with the growth of the German merchant marine, agreeable later, as was announced, to the dignity of the new German empire. iSuch was the compound program of the German Plot- ienverein, which in Emperor William had so ardent a spokesman and promoter. That tendency was considered a danger by Great Britain, and properly so. Great Britain had never raised an objection against the armament on land which Germany maintained; with preparation on sea it was a different matter. Thus "the German peril" came. A strong German army could be useful to Great Britain against Russia and France, whose alliance was an argument in that direction, and no mean one. A strong German fleet, on the other hand, might be turned against Great Britain herself, and there were not wanting in Germany the indiscreet wielders of speech and pen who reminded the British public of this. The emperor, in fact, was one of the worst offenders. There were times when he could not contain his great dislike for his uncle, later King Edward VII, and there is ample proof to show that most of the vehement utterances William made were directed at that relative rather than at Great Britain. The chancellors of William II had a rather bad time of it, trying to place a curb on the imperial tongue. They were men who realized that one of these days such intemperance would have results detrimental to the nation. Unfortunately, they never succeeded for long holding their master in check, and in the end exactly that happened what they feared would happen. There are two sides to every question, and the claim of Great Britain, that she was fully justified in maintaining a naval establishment able 39 40 THE CRAFT SINISTER to cope with a combination of the two foreign war fleets next in strength to her own, should be viewed with more sympathy than at first it would seem to deserve. Great Britain depended as much upon her navy as Germany depended upon her army. On that point, moreover, the statesmen in Berlin and London had agreed long ago. But it is a characteristic of navies that they can be used for a variety of purposes. An army is quite a negligible factor in colonial enterprises so long as its line of communication with the home country is not protected by a strong navy. Thus, in colonial expansion overseas, a good navy is the prime prerequisite so long as inter- ference with this policy must be taken into account. The lack of such a navy makes one's colonial enterprises dependent upon the good will of the nation that has such an arm. The best army becomes useless for expeditionary purposes away from home when its transit on the seas can be threatened, or when, transit having been accomplished, its supplies can be cut off. A strong navy also is able to protect one's merchant shipping. An army is a nonentity in that respect, no matter how strong and eflficient. Germany had brought into being a great merchant marine, and had in the course of time, and somewhat by the grace of Great Britain, founded a colonial empire of promise, the slow development of which had its causes in the fact that the Germans were not colonizers in the sense in which the British are this. Instead of getting the natives to do their best under conditions as yet unsuited for the White Man, they had at- tempted to do everything themselves in the manner which has become known as "Potsdam." Too much thoroughness was expended on trifles, and the major issues were never grasped. The result of this was that the colonial possessions of Germany were a charge when they might have been a factor of at least economic strength. These things were known to the German colonial enthusiasts merely by their effect, not by their causes. That the colonies did not pay was thought due to inherent conditions. The colonies were no good, and a place in the sun had to be sought elsewhere, therefore. To get that place in the sun a large navy was thought necessary, as indeed it was, taking the strictly German view of it. Against the German naval program. Great Britain advanced a certain number of arguments, all of them good for Great Britain, naturally, yet none of them really bad for the Germans. When the Germans argued that their merchant marine needed protection, and that its growth was retarded by the lack of a strong navy, the British pointed to the fact that the Dutch and Norwegian merchant marines were greater in pro- portion than the German, and that in their case the absence of a strong THE TRIPLE ENTENTE 41 navy had been no handicap. To the contention that Germany needed a strong navy for the good of her colonies, the British were in the habit of replying that the Dutch colonial empire, much more valuable than the German, had continued in spite of having no such protection. The Kleindeutschen element — Little^Germans — were satisfied with that presentation of the case. Not so the Alldeutschen — men who pro- moted, supported and guided the navy and colonies associations. The latter had a telling argument on their side. What the British politicians said was all very well. It was quite possible that for the time being Great Britain would not molest the German merchant marine and would not take the German colonies, but what guarantee was there that Great Britain might not do that tomorrow? It is the habit of the German mind to do things for keeps. The word forever has a real meaning to the average German. He is ever concerned with the future, without realizing that a statesman's forever is a mockery. Seeing that none are better students of history than these very same people one must wonder that the duration of things and con- ditions has never become clearer to them. Be that as it may, the fact is that the navy and colony leagues saw things only from that angle. The Case of the Two-Power Standard But Germany also had a caste which for its opposition to the British two-power standard did not even have that justification. It was the con- tention of this class that acquiescence into this British policy meant a woeful surrender of German sovereignty. Any measure by a foreign government which at all influenced a German measure of the same general category was to this element an infraction of sovereignty; consent to it was adjudged supineness and even treason. If Germany wanted to build a large navy it was entirely a German matter and the right of Germany to do so. Did not Great Britain do the same thing? If Great Britain wanted to increase her army she had a right to do that without asking. All this was well only from the position of the casehardened doc- trinarian in statecraft. To take such a view was neither prudent nor profitable. The British nav)*^ and the German army could have kept the world at peace, as they had done for forty years, and the cases of Dutch and Norwegian shipping, and the Dutch East Indies, were certainly in favor of the contentions of the British. Even the French colonial empire was to a large extent at the mercy of the British, and despite that it had done fairly well, would have done better yet were the French as good colonizers as the British are. Emperor William was an ardent navalist. He loved to dwell on 42 THE CRAFT SINISTER the possessive adjective: Mein — my. Meine Flotte was, next to meine Armcc, tlie piece dc resistance of every speech he made. Coupled with the unfortunate tendency to see in Great Britain but his uncle, Edward VII, that failing was to bring on disaster in the end. The impartial observer and student cannot fail to arrive at the con- clusion that Germany's prestige would in nowise have suffered had she completely acquiesced in the two-power standard. Moreover, she would have benefited thereby. The claim advanced by apologists for the Ger- man government, that Great Britain was jealous of Germany's com- merce and merchant marine, sounds logical enough to those who are anxious to hear it, but is not convincing. Germany herself was too good a buyer in Great Britain and her colonies, and supplemented too well British industry and trade, to have been selected by Great Britain for destruction on that account. The boycott of German goods agreed on later by the Allies was a French measure rather than a British one. There is no doubt that, had Germany taken a more sympathetic view of the facts in Great Britain's national defense scheme, there would have been a perfect rapprochement between the two and the peace of the world would have been far better secured than any other means or method can ever achieve. The addition of Great Britain to the Triple Alliance would have put an end to the mad race in naval and military preparation and a partial disarmament would have been possible even. There were men in both capitals who realized this. Lord Haldane was one of the leaders in the British group of so-called pacifists, who pleaded with the German government to be reasonable. His words found indeed an echo in Germany, but not in the right circles. There was no such thing as representative government in Germany; quite the last thing William and his caste wanted was a responsible ministry. The invasion of England by Roman, Saxon, Dane and Norman was thought too anterior to be applicable in our day, said those in control of German public opinion — as bad a set of swashbuckling militaristic politicians and pressmen as have ever ridden a people over the brink of the abyss. If Great Britain wanted to build a score of ships to Germany's ten that was her business. The next naval program of Germany would provide for forty for the twenty and the best man was to win. Great Britain wanted to form a world hegemony and it had become the duty of Germany to prevent that. ^'^ Such childish twaddle found response in kind in London, of course. "The German peril" was on every lip. Mr. Arthur Lee, then civil lord of the admiralty, announced quite calmly one day that the German fleet could be sunjc out of hand by the British. That extravagant framing of the case was not only ill-advised but it was also an insult to the Germans. THE CASE OF THE TWO-POWER STANDARD 43 Needless to say, it furnished the German navaHsts with the very argu- ments they needed. Lord Haldane, being a farsighted Scot, continued to labor for an understanding on this point between Great Britain and Germany. But he labored under the handicap of having as many jingoes to fight as his German collaborators had chauvinists to contend with. By 1902 the growth of the German navy began to assume alarming proportions, as the British saw it. The tension between the two countries grew with every day. Propaganda for larger fleets had in the two countries invaded every sphere of life. Banquet table, platform, pulpit, press, novel and play, and the very schools were turned to the discussion of the same thing : More armament on sea and then more of it. A Race Between Jingo and Chauvinist The coming into power of the Liberal Party in Great Britain in 1906 improved the situation a little. In London, as well as in Berlin, men began to take stock a little, and for a while it seemed as if some degree of reason- ableness was to prevail. There is ample evidence to show that on both sides an awakening had come. But it was too late now. The furor was travelling by its own impetus. Such men as Haldane and Asquith, and even Sir Edward Grey, did their best to assure the British public that, after all, the case was not as critical as had been thought. But they did not succeed in reassuring their public, nor did the jingoes in official position and in the press allow the British public to forget what so recently had excited it. The fact is that the German peril had been much exaggerated, as the developments of the Great War have so amply demon- strated. The British fleet was shown still able to defend the home shores. This, in short, was the case as it appeared before the public. But while the flood gates of propaganda were open the several foreign offices and diplomatic services were not idle. The man in the street has ever been in ignorance of what goes on in the chancelleries, foreign offices and embassies, which need not surprise since even parlia- ments and congresses in this imperfect world of ours are generally con- fronted by the executive branch of the government with little more than the fait accompli. In Paris, London and St. Petersburg diplomatists were feverishly at work making of the Franco-Russian alliance the Triple Entente. The busiest of them was King Edward VII. For reasons that are only known in part, Edward VII was at no time much of a friend of things German, despite the fact that his father was a German; despite the fact that his mother was so typically of that 44 THE CRAFT SINISTER race that she was not able to entirely rid herself of her German accent. At any rate, Edward was no admirer of the country of his ancestors. Some say that he took very much to heart the grievances of his sister Victoria, who was married to Frederik, emperor of a hundred days, and father of William 11. That princess-royal of Great Britain was never acclimated in the chilly, stiff and discipline-ridden atmosphere of the Berlin court, where everything moved according to the rules of the average, typical German household. She was and remained the Auslaenderin — the foreigner — to whom Bismarck was in the habit of referring as die Bng- laenderin. The Iron Chancellor was not exactly the personification of tact and the Crownprincess Victoria loathed the very sight of him. Edward VII is said to have been influenced by this. But that was not all. At the Berlin court much attention has always been given to correct conduct in sex matters. Notable exceptions are recorded, of course, but generally the monarchs and princes had to behave after sowing their wild oats before marriage. Emperor William, especially, was a stickler in this respect — was a puritan, in fact. All would have been well had he, as a sensible monarch should do, confined such discipline to himself. But the great meddler that was in him did not allow that. There happened to be in the waters of Kiel, on the occasion of the annual regatta, an American yacht with a particularly handsome woman aboard. The lady had a somewhat frayed reputation, due to an acquaintance with Edward VII, as Prince of Wales, that was considered too intimate. Edward heard of the presence of his former love and promptly paid her a visit — ^to the great disgust of the emperor. William, of course, consider- ing himself the guardian and head not only of all the Hohenzollerns, but their relatives by marriage as well, chided his flighty uncle. Edward told his nephew, Willie, that he had better mind his own business. It is said that this was the last time that the two men spoke to one another on a strictly personal matter. Among the many mistakes made by William II was the one that he looked upon his uncle as a sort of royal good-for-nothing, as he put it in a letter on one occasion. In addition to being somewhat presumptuous for a nephew to thus adjudicate his uncle and elder, it was foolish, to say the least. Queen Victoria had not given her son much of an oppor- tunity to occupy himself with the very limited affairs of the British crown. To what little actual business there was she gave attention her- self. The ministry took care of the government from cellar to garret, left the queen the parlor and the heir-presumptive the porch, as it were. As Prince of Wales, the duties of Edward had been confined to laying cornerstones, visiting hospitals and almshouses and receiving the lesser potentates. That left him a great deal of leisure, naturally, and this A RACE BET!WEEN JINGO AND CHAUVINIST 45 the prince spent in a manner agreeable to himself and seldom agreeable to his mother. Queen Victoria used to complain of this within the family, and so it came that Bertie had not as good name entre eux as he would have had under the cast-iron regime at the Berlin residence. Why William II should have concluded that his uncle and brother-sovereign was a puddinghead besides is not a matter of record, but a fact never- theless. The Anti-German Policy of Edward VII Edward VII has been credited, or discredited, as the case may be, with the intention of making the British sovereign less of a figurehead than he had been in the past. To that have been ascribed his activities known as the "isolation" of Germany. The isolation of Germany was taken in hand by Edward VII imme- diately upon the death of Queen Victoria in 1901. While the public of Paris was still laughing over the Boer War caricatures in Le Rire and such salacious publications as I'Assiette au Buerre, in which Queen Victoria especially did not fare well, and while the humanitarians of France were still demanding that, in the name of civilization and human progress, France, Russia and eventually Germany and her allies strike Great Britain without loss of time, and put an end to her hegemony, Edward was busy laying the foundations of a policy that was to crush the man in Berlin, who had been quite busy giving his grandmother good military advice how the Boers could be overcome the quickest. From sending a telegram of congratulation to President Oom Paul Kruger, at the time of the Jamieson Raid, to that sort of thing was quite a step, to be sure. But to versatile, volatile William that was nothing. It really was not difficult to win the French diplomatists over. They had discovered during the Fashoda Affair that it is not easy to perturb the British lion, or to take what he has in his claws. There had also been a rather annoying incident on the Lorraine border, and, above all, the conduct of the Russian ministers of foreign affairs was not uniformly satisfactory. There were times when the Franco-Russian alliance seemed on the verge of expiring. Count Muravieff was an arriviste diplomatically, somewhat pro-German by nature and easily influenced, and his successor, Count Lamsdorff, was openly Germanophile. It was one's duty under such circumstances to look about for a sort of supplementary insurance policy. The German population was increasing at a truly remarkable speed, having about 1900 reached its best birthrate, which meant a greater army twenty years hence, and meanwhile a greater production, and so more exports and more wealth. There was nothing else to do for the prudent states- 46 THE CRAFT SINISTER man but to effect an understanding with a nation that was more vitally interested in such things than was Russia, apparently. Czar Nicholas meanwhile had shown toward the Franco-Russian alliance an indifference that was disconcerting. The reactionaries of his court, and the nobility of his empire, generally, had never been any too fond of this international misalliance. To some extent also German influence in St. Petersburg had undermined the standing of the Franco-Russian entente, as it was still called, and the Germanic nobles in the Baltic provinces also threw their weight in the scale against the arrangement with France. But there were Russians, and a good many of them were to be found in Paris, who were still ardent supporters of the alliance. Some of them had looked rather farther into the future than M. de Giers and Prince Lobanoff had done. They had not seen it merely as a curb upon the imperialism of Great Britain, but they had also kept Germany in mind. Though the Russo-Polish element could gain nothing by setting Russia upon Germany, they, nevertheless, actuated by their greater hatred 'of the Prussians, and to some extent by their love of France, did every- thing they could to keep the treaty alive. M. de Hansen, a Dane with a grudge against Bismarck in particular, and all things German in general, who was being credited with having engineered the Franco-Russian pact with Gustave Flourens, then French minister of foreign affairs, had been given a great deal of assistance by the influential Poles at Paris and St. Petersburg, among whom was a certain Ratchkowsky, connected with the Russian secret service abroad. Baron Mohrenheim, at that time Russian ambassador at Paris, had never been more than lukewarm toward the pro- posal, following in this the example of de Giers, his chief in St. Petersburg. The treaty seems to have come about for no other reason than that both of the contracting parties needed one another and were willing to let matters rest with the strictly neo-platonic arrangement that was made. France, therefore, was easily won over to the entente cordiale, which Edward VII had in mind, when the British press began to speak of a rapprochement. In 1904 relations between France and Great Britain were already of so cordial a character that the entente cordiale could be referred to in Downing Street without the press of Europe going either into ecstacy or suffering a convulsion. One of the first practical results of the entente between Great Britain and France was that the latter acknowledged the justice of claims Great Britain had made in regard to Egypt. France also receded from the position she had taken, and stoutly defended in the past, on the exclusive fisheries rights in the waters of Newfoundland, retained by her in the treaty of Utrecht. In return for these cessions France was given i free hand by Great Britain in Morocco, a transaction which left the THE ANTPGERMAN POLICY OF EDWARD Vll 47 German interests, mostly of a special concession character, high and dry, as members of the German Reichstag claimed at the time. Prince von Buelow, then chancellor, was not inclined to make an issue of the case, and pointed out that Germany's interests in Morocco were entirely eco- nomic, and that, since Spain had been left a place in Moroccan affairs, there was no reason to suppose that German commerce would be excluded. The Morocco affair was to keep the chancelleries and diplomatic missions in Europe occupied for a long time — seven years. On at least one occasion it came close to leading to war between Germany and France, and the allies of both, probably. At this date it seems hardly worth while to give too much attention to the event ; its main outlines must be drawn, however. Though the German chancellor had stated publicly that Germany had only economic interests in Morocco, the German government a few months later, urged by special interests with investments in the country, it is charged, demanded that the status of the sultanate be reviewed at a con- ference at which the representatives of all claimants should be heard. The conference took place after the French minister of foreign affairs, M. Delcasse, had resigned in protest. Even the French government was not entirely sure of its ground, despite the attitude of its foreign minister. It was really a case of Delcasse making the best of a bad bargain. Great Britain had taken possession in Egypt, and France's compensation for the concessions made on the Nile was now being questioned and placed in jeopardy. Small wonder that the minister decided to abandon his post, and was from that moment on one of Germany's arch enemies. Diplomacy in Its Heyday The conference of Algeciras was at first inclined to place Morocco under international control. The Germans were satisfied with that proposal, and, their vanity having been appeased, they consented readily enough that France continue her work, after the sphere of influence of the Spanish had been inconsiderably augmented. So far as the German government is concerned, anyway, all the noise that was made at home was nothing more than incident to a saving of face under difficult conditions. The Alldeutschen — Pan-Germans — saw in the Morocco affair a good opportunity to embar- rass the government, which after a short flaring up in regard to armament on the sea, had again subsided into a closer adherence to the policies due the Triple Alliance. That great conservative in Vienna, Emperor Francis Joseph, was forever opposed, so long as his mind was active enough, to innovations in Triple Alliance politics that might have war in their wake. It is regrettable that the advice of the old man was not more often heeded 48 THE CRAFT SINISTER by Berlin, which is easily understood since in that capital already men were thinking of Austria-Hungary as a political incubus. Though many promises had been made and many understandings arrived at, the French did not always show German interests in Morocco that consideration which they thought their due. The result was that, after much wrangling, an agreement was entered into, in specific terms, between France and Germany, 1909, by which the commercial interests of Germany and the political position of France, in Morocco, were clearly defined. In 1911 French troops, for the purpose of settling disorder in the interior, penetrated beyond the zone given to France. This and continuous complaints of German firms that they were being discriminated against by the French caused the German government to send the gun- boat "Panther" to Agadir Bay. Again, Europe was threatened by war, and again the entente cordiale, of which the prime mover, Edward VI L was now dead, saved the situation. The debates in the Reichstag of these days show how completely checkmated had been Germany by Great Britain — the country which but a few years ago had nary a friend and no ally in Europe. The French ceded some territory in the Congo regions to the Germans and another Morocco incident was closed. In 1907 there was effected an entente between Great Britain and Russia. The pact was never committed to paper, so far as is known; it was sealed with what amounted to a partition of Persia. The country in question was divided into two zones of interests, or political spheres. The northern went to Russia, the southern to Great Britain, which thereby gained entry into the potentially rich valley of Mesopotamia. Here, too, hostile contact was had with German interests. The Turkish government had given, and was about to give more, railroad concessions to German capitalists, the system projected being known as the Bagdad railroad. The Deutsche Bank of Berlin was behind this enterprise. The Germans built (1890) a branch line from Ismid to Ada Basar, extended the trunk line to Eski-Shehir and Angora (1892) and then to Konia (1896). In 1902, the Deutsche Bank was given the concession to continue the main line into Mesopotamia and immediately began work, starting at several points at the same time. At first it was the intention of the company to build the line through to Koweit on the Persian Gulf, but the British government objected to this. An agreement between the Turkish and British governments (1913) limited the concession of the Deutsche Bank south of Bagdad to the line Bagdad-Basra, 585 kilometers long. The ring about Germany and her allies was now complete. Prince LobanoflF had been the first to give this political scheme his attention. But he was not the man to carry it out, or rather before he could con- DIPLOMACY IN ITS HEYDAY 49 summate his plan death carried liim oft". It seems that his escapade with the wife of the French diplomatic secretary had robbed him of much of the prestige he needed to carry out his design. Though he was an ardent Francophile, even government circles in Paris grew wary of this adventurer in international politics — the fate of nations. King Edward succeeded far better — beyond his own expectations, it would seem. The isolation of Germany was complete. It was considered the more complete, because everybody expected the Hapsburg monarchy to crumble from one season to another, while Italy had long ago ceased to be regarded as a staunch member of the Triple Alliance, a little matter to which M. Barrere, the French ambassador at Rome, attended well. The Triple Entente, therefore, was the major fact of the political situation in Europe Germans who realized that a contest with the Triple Entente was in- evitable and not far off were not few in number. Most of them were Socialists, however, and to be a Socialist damned in those days whatever view was held by one. In Germany, unfortunately for the people, it was not a case of what was said, but rather one of who said it. Infallibility of the government was more than ever the favorite doctrine, and the privileges of this were extended in the most gratuitous manner to all who seemed in authority, be that in state administration, politics oi society. The Socialists alone were denied this, despite the fact that they represented the common people much more than the artificial majority sent into the state legislatures by the plural vote election system of the leading state, Prussia, and its principal supporter in reactionism, Saxony. Social- ists such as David, Scheidemann, Haase, Ledebour, Liebknecht, Braun and Noske were not listened to, because it was assumed that they saw the situation through the black spectacles of partisanship. Indeed a review of the case nowadays fails to indicate an avenue of escape which Germany might have taken, A General Maneuvering for Position It was especially the Alldeutschen, or Pan-Germans, who were ex- travagant in their claims and intemperate in their speech. The Pan- German League first came into prominence about 1890, when it distin- guished itself in adverse criticism of the cession to Great Britain of minor interests in Zanzibar and in East Africa in return for the transfer to Germany of Heligoland, which up to that time had been held by the British, despite its proximity to the German ports on the North Sea. During the time of international stress which followed the Agadir inci- dent and the realization that the Triple Entente was indeed fait accompli and likely to stand any test in the fire, the Pan-Germanic Partv and its so THE CRAFT SINISTER publications supported any movement calculated to promote armament. The German people and even the government, as the attitude of the German chancellors of those years shows, were eager to give their enemies a mini- mum of affront, but the less the cautious element talked, the louder were the Pan-Germans. Today one cannot read their fulminations without being struck by the force of the adage of old: "Whom the gods will destroy they first make mad." The completion of the Franco-Russo-British entente seems to have had little effect upon the radical Alldeutschen. More and more they pressed for armament on sea and land. The fear of the Englishman that his tight, little isle might be invaded had subsided at least a little by 1909. The "Englishman's Home" seemed again as secure as the British navy could make it. In that year, however, it was shown that the German navy was still growing at too rapid a pace, and the news that Krupp, with that fine impartiality that distinguishes the conduct of the princes of industry, was delivering as many armor plates to Great Britain as to Germany added to the fear in Great Britain. The plates might be bad. A really unbearable situation had been brought about. It was so unbearable that Winston Churchill, first lord of the admiralty, proposed a naval holiday, a period in which no keels for new battleships should be laid down. In Germany that proposal found no willing ears, because it was interpreted as a ruse. Great Britain had more hulls on the stocks than had Germany. Be that as it may, no concessions were made in Berlin. The fight was on, and, while as yet no powder was being burned, it was already a case of no quarter. Lord Haldane, who had been so active in behalf of the limitation of naval armament that he earned the reputation of being a Germanophile, which was already the least desirable name one could have in Great Britain, made another trip to Germany, this time officially for the Liberal government. The German government had the utmost confidence in Haldane, and showed itself most conciliatory. But it was no longer a case of agreeing in regard to the two-power standard or anything con- nected therewith. It was the Triple Entente that worried Berlin. The German government was willing to reduce its own naval program greatly in case the Liberal government would agree to remain neutral in case there should be war between Germany and France. Lord Haldane was not able to make that promise, but, after communicating with his govern- ment, was ready to put Great Britain on record as willing to leave France to her fate in case she attacked Germany. In view of what happened in 1914, a scant two years later, this is of interest. The offer made by Lord Haldane was tantamount to a notice upon Germany that Great Britain would side with France in case of aggression on the part of the Germans. A GENERAL MANEUVERING FOR POSITION 51 The remarkable feature of this is that, according to statements made to me by men in high official position in Berlin, who were in a position to know, the German government did not fully comprehend this at that time. I have proof to show that Lord Haldane was, seemingly, not understood. Had he been understood the history of July and August, 1914, might be other than what it is. With this incident came to a close all effort on both sides to limit the naval programs of the two countries. In Germany every Socialist leader and many of the prominent men in the government had spoken in favor of it, and in Great Britain the Liberal Party had looked upon it as a sort of plank in their platform. They had promised the electorate that the money so saved was to be used in a number of socio-economic reforms that were greatly needed. Such men as Campbell-Bannerman, Lloyd George, Lord Morley, Vivian, Trevelyan and Haldane, not to mention a score of others, had been behind the movement. Nothing whatever had come of it, and for that secret diplomacy was responsible. To say that every Englishman and German who favored an under- standing between their countries on the question of naval armament was a deceiver is to take it for granted that there are no honest men in govern- ment. If that view should actually represent a fact then we must admit that those cheerful pessimists, the anarchists, are right after all. But there is no reason to assume that all the honest men are out of government, though election speeches would have it so, as a rule. The fact is that, as I will show in the chapter following, some forty men had made up their mind that there should be war, a world war, if necessary, and that they succeeded all too well. What is more, these forty men were not all in one capital. They belonged to the foreign offices and corps diplomatiques in London, Paris, Petrograd, Berlin and Vienna. The situation in Europe had given diplomacy its heyday, and never before had the intriguant such an opportunity. Preparedness for War Gets New Start The mission of Haldane, having been fruitless, the German govern- ment decided upon the military law of 1913, which increased the estab- lishment of the line to 866,000 officers and men, without affecting the reserves and older bans, however. The increase itself was about 135,000 officers and men — not great in itself, but notice to the world that military preparedness in Germany was being put on yet a larger base. The law was passed June 30. On July 19 came the reply from France in the form of a similar law, and the battle under cover was on more than before. Most Germans r^f^.rred to the law as a new form of mobilization, and 52 THE CRAFT SINISTER such, in effect, it was to be. Criticism of the government eHcited nothing more than reference to what was being done in Russia. In March, 1913, the Russian government also increased its standing army materially and provided for a general and thorough reorganization, and, meanwhile, the strategic railroads along the Polish-Prussian and Russo-Galician borders were being pushed to completion as rapidly as possible. It was known that the last of these roads would be completed in 1915. The French banks and investors had furnished the money for the building of these lines. It was difficult to claim that economic requirements were the reason for their building, and St. Petersburg, therefore, calmly asserted that the railroads were meant for defensive purposes only. Since the gun may be used for aggression as well as in defense that was begging the question, of course. To what extent the constantly growing industries of Germany, with their resulting exports and increase in wealth, were responsible for the Great War is entirely a matter of controversy into which it will not pay to enter. That Germany was getting to be a very dangerous neighbor to France is true enough. But it does not follow that it was envy of German industriousness and efficiency, as has been claimed, which induced the French to risk a war. France herself was still richer than Germany — richer especially in so far that she had room for her population, a rather negative quality in this instance, since the rapid growth in population of the German empire constituted in itself a sort of wealth which France had to fear more than the rapidly accumulating savings of the German people. In 1908 the density per square mile in Germany was 290.4 per- sons, while in France it was 189, or about 100 less. The area of the two countries was 208,780 square miles for Germany and 207,509 for France; the population respectively 66,800,000 and 39,800,000. What France had to fear was that she would lose more territory to the Germans soon or late, and this, then, will be accepted by the future historian as the actual causal motive of the Great War, so far as France and Germany are concerned. The philosophical investigator will arrive at a similar conclusion, no doubt, with the exception that he will state the case in terms of national biology. That France and Great Britain, and the United States destroyed completely Germany's manufacture and commerce — in the most ruthless and impolitic fashion — is more to be looked upon, under the circumstances, as a preventive measure than a policy completely in being at the outbreak of the War. To cripple Germany in this manner was the sine qua non of the prophylactis of the so-called Peace Conference at Paris. What has been said here for France would seem to apply to Great Britain. Germany was a long way oflF from being the dangerous com- PREPAREDNESS FOR WAR GETS NEW START 53 petitor of the British, whom apologists in the German government have pictured. There is something in the foreign trade figures of the two countries which has been overlooked. In 1913 Great Britain imported to the amount of $3,741,048,000, while the exports totalled $3,089,353,000, leaving a deficit of $561,695,000. Germany in the same year imported goods and materials to the value of $2,773,850,000, and exported $2,592,- 239,000, leaving a difference against her of $181,611,000. In the one instance we have a population of about 46 millions importing 3,741 million dollars worth of merchandise and exporting 3,000 millions worth, while in the other we have a people numbering roundly 69 millions, or 23 millions greater in number than the British population, importing only 2,773 millions worth of commodities and exporting again 2,592 millions worth. Though the difference between import and export, in both cases, does not wholly represent home consumption, it nevertheless is a fact that the British public, 2Z millions less, consumed more than the German, as our figures go, at least three times as much; much more in reality. In the case of Russia, also, it was not a question of getting rid of an economic competitor. The density of population of Russia in Europe was in 1908 only 53.8 persons per square mile, while for the empire it was only 14.92. What this means will be best understood when it is considered that the density in Belgium was 589 persons for each square mile. Americans will realize that better in comparison with the density in Rhode Island, which is 508.5, by far the greatest in the United States. The figures for Russian exports and imports were, in 1913, respectively $782,869,000 and $707,627,000, with a favorable balance of $75,242,000, a wholly negligible amount for a population of about 177 million persons. Density and foreign trade figures show both that Russia was neither in need of more room nor of more trade. The case, then, was entirely a question of politics. That the elements of national biology had something to do with it cannot be overlooked, however. Still it would seem that if Belgium could get along with a density of 589, Germany could have for some time managed with a density of 290.4 — at least, the necessity for more room was not pressing enough so as not to permit her government to select a more propitious moment for a war of conquest and annexation. The Position of Austria-Hungary The position of Austria-Hungary in the setting of the stage for the great tragedy is very unimportant. As second member of the Triple Alliance, her role, politically, was great enough; militarily, it was any- thing but that. For years she troubled nobody and managed to get along 54 THE CRAFT SINISTER with all her neighbors. Emperor Francis Joseph of Austria and Czar Alexander III, as well as his father, had been on the best of terms. The first two were feudal enough in their state tendency to be perfectly en rapport on all matters affecting the intercourse of their states. For Alexander II the Austrian emperor was progressive enough to meet his liberal views. Francis Joseph was a rare personage among monarchs. Without having to simulate in the least he was everything to all men. Hence his great success as the ruler of a dual state composed of no less than ten races, having no less than ten sets of national aspirations, and all that in an age in which liberal tendency was not as scarce or as disregarded in his realm as some would have us believe. The Austro-Hungarian government made two great mistakes. The one was the consequence of the other. In October, 1908, it annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina, since the Berlin Congress under its control, without consulting at all in any respect the wishes of the people thus brought into the dual monarchy. Many of these people were of Slav origin, and what is more important the majority of them felt attracted to what had become known as Jugo- Slavism. / The annexation of these two Turkish provinces had been contem- plated in Vienna for a long time. But the moment was never propitious until Count Aehrenthal, then Austro-Hungarian minister of foreign aflFairs. made it that, by breaking the news privately to Isvolski under circumstances that placed the Russian minister of foreign affairs at a great disadvantage. In September of 1908 Count Berchtold, at that time Austro-Hungarian ambassador at St. Petersburg, invited Isvolski, then travelling in Austria, to spend a few days at a hunting lodge of his near Buchan in Bohemia. It was there, while the Russian minister of foreign affairs was a guest, that Count Aehrenthal initiated him into the design of his government to annex Bosnia and Herzegovina. Isvolski was a man who liked to please, and the sharp Count Aehrenthal, an apt pupil of Metternich at his worst, outwitted him. For that Isvolski lost his post in the Russian cabinet and later went to Paris as ambassador, there to nurse his resentment of both, his own good nature and the sharp dealing of Counts Aehrenthal and Berchtold. It has been said that a diplomatist must never say either yes or no. Monsieur Isvolski seems to have taken that too literally. Needless to say this little trick did not in any way improve relations between the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance. The Austro-Hungarian government prepared the ground verv poorlv for the annexation of the two provinces, because, two years before, it had allowed the big Hungarian landowners to inveigle the country into a sort of tariff war with Serbia. As the result of this Serbian exports to the Danube country had gone down from 63,000,000 crowns in 1905 THE POSITION OF AUSTRIA-HUNGARY 55 to 12,500,000 crowns in 1907, though Serbia had cut her imports from the same country for the two years only from 32,000.000 to 25,000,000 crowns, that is to say, Serbia had exported to Austria-Hungary 50,500,000 crowns less in 1907 than in 1905, but had bought only 7,000,000 crowns less. For a while it seemed as if the Serbian farmers would have to choke in the lard, pork and prunes they had to sell. But Germany came to their assistance and bought to the tune of 32,000,000 crowns in 1907 as against 2,000,000 crowns in 1905. Belgium likewise increased her im- ports from Serbia from 300,000 crowns to 13,000,000 crowns in 1907. Eco- nomic war makes as strange bed fellows as the other sort. The fact that Serbia could sell to advantage was due entirely to international railroad agreements, which permitted German and Belgian freight cars to pass in transit through Austria-Hungary without duty having to be paid on their cargoes. That Serbia had no outlet upon the Adriatic Sea made this atrocious case of tariff discrimination possible. There are times when governments and governed as well must be protected against their own stupidity, and this was such a case. Had fate willed it that Serbia could get to the sea Austria-Hungary, in the first place, would have never excluded her products, and, secondly, Austria-Hungary might not today be in the position she is in. Again : Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. The Profits of Tariff Discrimination The ruthless proceeding against Serbia roused the anger of every Slav in the monarchy. It gave Jugo-Slavism and Pan-Slavism the very impetus they needed. Overnight the quasi-secret organization of the Jugo-Slavs, the somewhat notorious "Narodna Odbrana," became a tre- mendous factor and in the end Austria-Hungary saw more of her people and territory carried away by the tariff discrimination against Serbia than she had gained by the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. And all this to please a landed class, which thought that it was not getting enough out of special privileges enjoyed in vested rights and the unlimited oppor- tunity to exploit the peasant. Here, too, was a case in which a sovereign state thought sovereignty to be a patent for any sort of conduct toward the weaker neighbor. The worst of fallacies is independence carried to extremes. Even the most powerful of nations, the most absolute of monarchs, is not independent wholly of others. The time usually comes when transgression againsi natural law, even though it be one of the misunderstood factors in national biology, will be visited upon the transgressor. The Great War had many 56 THE CRAFT SINISTER examples of this — enough of them to last the haughty World Powers that remain for the rest of their existence. Let us hope that at least this lesson is not lost. Archduke Francis Ferdinand, heir-presumptive of Austria and Hun- gary, had made the mistake — and for the future ruler of several millions of Slavs it was a bad mistake — of permitting himself to become known as a Slavophobe. To what extent he was this I have no means of ascer- taining, but there is hardly ever smoke where there is no fire. At one time he was credited with being anti-Magyar. Both rumors or claims were probably greatly exaggerated. At any rate he was done to death on June 28, 1914, by Jugo-Slav fanatics in the town of Sarajevo, Bosnia. For several days it was feared that the political mine of Europe was surely sprung. The world held its breath, so to speak. It waited for the blow to fall for a week and then returned to its business, the diplomatic world to its vacations. Twenty-six days passed and then the news came that the Austro-Hungarian government had sent an ultimatum to Belgrade the like of which had not been transmitted in years. When the ultimatum was delivered the European chancelleries were virtually empty of the men who attended to the affairs of state. Ambassadors and ministers every- where were out in the country and at the season places summering. The German emperor was on his wonted trip to the Northlands, and even Count Berchtold, the Austro-Hungarian minister of foreign affairs, was not in the building on the Ballhausplatz, nor even in Vienna. It seemed as if the ultimatum had fallen from the blue sky. For a day governmental and diplomatic circles everywhere went through the motion of coming to wakefulness, real in some cases, simulated in others, and then diplomacy and all that appertains to it engaged frantically in efforts to prevent in the last minute what it had labored and intrigued for during years. THE GREAT DEBACLE WHEN Europe next occupied itself with the assassination at Sarajevo it was the hard terms of the Austro-Hungarian ulti- matum to Serbia that attracted attention. Reasonable men everywhere felt that they might lead to war. There were many who could not see why the blood of thousands, as it was then viewed, should be spilled for the murder of an archduke and his wife, even though they were Hapsburgs and the prospective sovereign couple of a World Power. The ultimatum expired on Saturday, July 25, at six p. m. Its worst feature really was that it demanded of the Serbian government that in its official publication it should on July 26th publish a statement prepared by the foreign office at Vienna. That measure was punitive, of course. It was hardly possible that the Serbian government could keep from its people the fact that it had been humbled into the dust, as govern- ments look upon such things. Why the Austro-Hungarian government gave its ultimatum just that form has puzzled many. The tenor and demands of the instrtiment could easily be given that interpretation which much of the world placed uoon them later on in the charge that Austro-Hungary wanted to have war with Serbia at any price. The circumstance that a partial mobilization of the Austro-Hungarian army had already been ordered, and the fact that considerable bodies of troops were already on the borders of Serbia, could not but serve in support of that conclusion. Yet the actual fact is that the Austro-Hungarian government hoped to settle its differences with Belgrade without recourse to war. The mobilization which it ordered was a purely coercive measure, applied by Vienna, as I have been able to establish to at least my own satisfaction, so that the Serbian government would not be able to think lightly of the intentions of the Austro-Hungarian government. That the procedure was reckless in the extreme is true enough. Vienna and Berlin felt that they could still afford extravagances of this sort. I say Vienna and Berlin, because the German government has seen fit to assert that it knew nothing of the intentions of its ally, which is absurd, of course.* Since the writing of these lines this has been definitely established. 57 58 THE CRAFT SINISTER I happen to know that the German ambassador in Vienna was fully ac- quainted with what was going on, and it is not likely that he left his foreign office in the dark. More likely is that the text of the ultimatum wa? submitted to the government in Berlin through the Austro-Hungarian envoy at that capital. Six years before Austria-Hungary had annexed Bosnia and Herze- govina with the assistance of the German government. That assistance may have been limited to an assurance on the part of the German govern- ment that in case of complications arising from the annexation it would stand by the terms of the treaty of alliance. But that, naturally, was all the assistance Austria-Hungary needed. When Isvolski had been won over in the manner explained before, Austria-Hungary and Germany, moreover, could proceed without having to fear anything. So long as Russia, self-appointed guardian of all the Slavs in the world, had been disposed of, Bosnia and Herzegovina could be incorporated without much of a risk. The annexation was no affair of Great Britain nor of France so long as primarily it benefitted only the dual monarchy, with whom both governments maintained at least cordial relations despite its member- ship in the Triple Alliance. It would have been different had Germany made the annexation. The Triple Entente, so far as Great Britain and France were concerned, was a measure against Germany, and both the British and French governments could well afford to be on especially good terms with the Austro-Hunsrarian government, which, as a member of the already very shakv Triple Alliance, might yet further weaken that pact, eventually leave Germany unallied entirely. But of this more fur- ther on. The Austro-Hungarian government entertained little respect for the Serbian government, peonle and royal family. The tariff discriminations already referred to could leave no doubt as to that. Primarily, however, it was the great disdain for the Karageorgevitch — Kara-Yiiriik — family that was felt in Vienna, that led to the rudeness displayed in the ultimatum. The social distinctions drawn in royal circles are many, as is known. Upon them is based the elaborate system of etiauette which governs the intercourse within this caste. The fact that most of the monarchs of Europe addressed one another in the familiar "thou" form has little to do with that, though the uninitiated mifrht easilv look upon this practice as proof of the great solidarity sovereigns and their families are supposed to maintain. A Question of Royal Respectability The Karageorgevitches had been a stench in the nostrils of royalty for decades. They succeeded the Obrenovitches by means of assassina- A QUESTION OF ROYAL RESPECTABILITY 59 tion and were considered unfit members of the family of kings therefore, especially since the Obrenovitch family was credited with better qualities than its rival, that of Black George. The founder of the Obrenovitch dynasty had been a humble Serb peasant who had distinguished himself in leadership of armed bands against the Turks. The original Black George was a man of a different type, though he also did his best to make the lot of the Turks in Serbia anything but pleasant. George was a gypsy, hailing from Bosnia, so far as records show. The story is that he was born under a hedge somewhere in the Balkan peninsula. Another story has it that he saw the light of day first in a gypsy tent pitched at the base of the Theodosian Wall at Stamboul. Be that as it may, the writer one day visited the village on the slopes of Mount Vidosh, near Sofia, where George resided in a hovel, gypsy fashion, before he decided to become a liberator and a statesman. In those days he herded pigs now, and took a shot at Turks then, being one of the members of a band of the variety later known as comitadjes. A folklore which is not unfriendly in the main has it that George earned himself the sobriquet Kara — black — for a number of crimes of a particularly shocking aspect. It is said that he shot his father, raped his sister and hung his brother. In extenuation of this conduct it may be said that such crimes were nothing unusual among the lawless elements in the peninsula, which only too often made the presence of the Turk the mere pretext for organizing into bands of robbers, as was especially the case in Serbia in those days, where a little later Karageorgevitch and Obrenovitch vied with one another in cruelty toward Turk and Serb alike. All of this would have been well had it not been that King Peter, as late as 1890-91, worked, like any other common individual, for a photographer in Vienna, one Charles Scolik. With the notion held in the Austro-Hungarian capital that royalty is something indeed sacrosanct these things did not all harmonize. So it came that King Peter was looked upon as the veriest of royal upstarts. To make the Obrenovitches feel that they were vassals of the Austro-Hungarian crown they were given a large annual stipend in return for nothing in particular. The Kara- georgevitches, on the other hand, received such an income from the Russian court. With such men the Austro-Hungarian court, on the one hand, and the very superior aristocrats in the Ballhausplatz building, on the other, were not inclined to be any too diplomatic, as the tariff matter had already demonstrated. Goaded into exasperation by the activities of the rather notorious "Narodna Odbrana" and other Jugo-Slav patriotic organizations, of which the assassination of the archduke was but the climax, the Austro- 60 THE CRAFT SINISTER Hungarian government was ready to treat Serbia in the manner which has ever been followed by the powerful government in its dealings with weaker states, especially when the latter were generally supposed to be somewhat ''barbarian." In short, the attitude of the dual monarchy, and most of its non-Slav constituents, was about the same as that observed by many people in the United States toward Mexico and some of the other Latin- American republics. All would have been well had it not been that Sazonoff was just then Russian minister of foreign affairs, and that the political ulcer of Europe was ready to break. Men who know this situation only superficially have said that it was Russia's fixed policy to get to Constantinople by the Balkan route, that was responsible for the stiff-backedness which the Serbian government developed — almost overnight. To some extent that is true, but the weak and vacillating Czar Nicholas was not the man to give much attention to this phase of Russian expansion. To be sure it was his foreign minister, Sazonoff, who had engineered the vicious treaty of Bucharest, 1913, which deprived the Bulgarians of a great deal of territory to which they had every valid claim, and which took from them, in addition, a district as Bulgarian as Maine is American — ^the Dobrudja. Needless to say, this estranged the Bulgarian people, and created throughout Southeast Europe the impression that Russia proposed marching to the Dardanelles via the Balkan, with the favored Serbians on their right flank of advance and with the Greeks doing a similar service on the shores of the Mediter- ranean. That the Rumanians had been pleased at the expense of the Bulgarians, by getting the Dobrudja, was interpreted as the throwing out of a fine bit of bait. It had a very sharp and strong hook in it, however, as Senator Marghiloman explained to me. That hook was the passing of Rumania under Russian suzerainty, if not rule. But all this did not dictate the moves of Sazonoff just then. He knew well enough that the conquest of the Balkan and the remainder of Turkey of Europe was not yet something to which Great Britain would give her assent, though with the French, with whom he dealt most, that might have made no difference so long as the German situation was taken care of. For that enterprise the world in Europe was not yet ripe. r The Diplomatic Mines Are Sprung The fact is, as I will show better later on, that Sazonoff instructed Belgrade not to pay much attention to the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum. With the assurance that the big brother in the North was coming to help, the Serbian government had no reason to acquiesce into the extreme and insulting demands of Austria-Hungary. As I later learned, the l^HE DIPLOMATIC MINES ARE SPRUNG 61 Austro-Hungarian government was sure that Serbia would accept her terms. Baron von GiesHngen, Austro-Hungarian minister at Belgrade, was under the impression, even sure, that the ultimatum would have the desired effect. But he was ignorant of the intentions of Sazonoff and the instructions rushed to the Serbian government, and made what, under the circumstances, is a natural mistake. Had Pashitch, the premier and foreign minister of Serbia, given him a tip that all was not as it appeared on the surface, the minister might have changed his tactics, so far as he could. It is very probable, however, that neither he, nor his foreign office, would have believed the Serbian government. Most likely such an intimation would have been looked upon as a ruse. There is also the cir- cumstance that premiers are not generally allowed to speak of such mat- ters. Thus it came about that on July 28 Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. For the next five days the telegraph wires of Europe continued to be very busy trying to mend matters. There were meetings of crown councils and cabinets everywhere. In the chancelleries the midnight oil was burned. Embassies and legations were the scene of wildest con- fusion. The press grew excited, and the public, throughout Central Europe, stood silent in awe. Foreign ministers and premiers did this and that, and arrived nowhere, and four of the monarchs of Europe, William, George, Nicholas and Francis Joseph, engaged in as futile an exchange of telegrams as could be imagined. The German emperor became the center of this. He tried, and tried honestly, to avert the catastrophe that was imminent. I realize fully that it will be considered daring to defend William II in that respect, yet a fact is a fact. As George Bernard Shaw put it recently: "It is out of the question to present the truth concerning a war to those who must chiefly bear the burden of it. Yet that should be done, must be done, if the public is ever to fully realize its own position." It is utterly futile to attempt the proving of anything in war by means of the vari-colored books, so-called "blue" books, which govern- ments are in the habit of issuing after they have entered upon a martial adventure. The writer has reached that conclusion after studying, for a matter of five years almost, the British white, Russian orange, French yellow, German white, Belgian grey, Austro-Hungarian red and United States white papers. The general public cannot be expected to understand, is not per- mitted to understand, in fact, what the purpose of these specious docu- ments is. The vari-colored books are issued by the governments concerned for the purpose of exonerating them before their own publics, putting the enemy in as bad a light as possible and influencing the public opinion 62 THE CRAFT SINISTER of the world. That is their sole purpose, and there is no other. At the same time it is hard to understand how serious men, professors of history among them, can take such garbled accounts as throwing really a "strong" light on the guilt or innocence of this or that government. The documents I have named and their supplements contain nearly 700 major communi- cations. Yet not a single one of them speaks of what had transpired before the situation was critical. The obligations of one state to another, as caused by understandings and alliances, understood by the public, or secret, which is more important, are not even touched upon. Nor is there among this mass of so-called evidence so much as an allusion to an instruction of a diplomatic envoy that made for war in case orders furthering peace should not bring good results. The reasonable human being has every right to think that a government would at least include, if it were honest in its so-called defense, such instructions to ambassadors and suggestions to allied governments as would be considered perfectly justified in case a bellicose power conducted itself in such a manner as to make war a strong eventuality. But nothing of the sort is done in these "papers." Their authors point to themselves with seeming satisfaction as the government or group which alone tried to avert the calamity of war. The British white book makes no reference to a fact, which Lord Haldane had already presented to the German government as late as 1912, to wit: That there was a definite understanding of the entente cordiale that Great Britain would come to the aid of France in case there was an attack made upon her. That much, at least, Haldane had made perfectly clear to Berlin by his attitude in refusing to agree to it that in case of war between Germany and France Great Britain would remain neutral. Sir Edward Grey and other British statesmen have since then asserted that the British government had made no promise to France of military aid of any sort and that it was the violation of the neutrality of Belgium that drove Great Britain into the war. How the world can be expected to believe that is hard to see. Haldane had admitted that under certain conditions Great Britain would go to war in the interest of France, and he admitted it in an endeavor to bring Germany to reason. His motive was the best. But apart from all that, may we not ask what was the purpose of the entente cordiale if it was not, at least, an agreement of a defensive-alliance character? That is the very least upon which govern- ments have in the past been willing to give their foreign relations that aspect which an entente between powers creates. The government that would complacently permit itself to be known as the close friend of another government without having more than the friendship and esteem of another nation in the bargain would be very foolish, to say the least. THE DIPLOMATIC MINES ARE SPRUNG 63 Such a friendship would be seriously questioned by other powers, who, misunderstanding this platonic love, would rightly cast about for an ally to meet the day when the purely altruistic union of the others would sud- denly unmask itself as something entirely different. Surely, British states- men expect too much from this gullible world when they demand that this fairy tale of theirs be accepted as presented. The Terms of the Entente Cordiale The fact of the matter was that the British government had promised France to side with her in a war against Germany under any circumstances. The mobilization ordered by the British government was a partial mobiliz- ation in name only and was meant for an attack on Germany no matter whether the German army attacked France through Belgium and Luxem- burg or through Alsace-Lorraine, because such was the import and purpose of the entente cordiale. This and the fact that there was in force an entente between Great Britain and Russia and an alliance between Russia and France, and the further fact that Russia would not consent to a localization or limitation of the trouble on the Danube to letting it remain an issue between Austria-Hungary and Serbia made the Great War inevitable. / It seems unreasonable to criticize for its own sake the attitude of the Russian government in regard to Austria-Hungary's unreasonable demands upon Serbia. At the same time, so far as Russia and Germany were concerned, the possibilities for peace were not yet exhausted, as has been shown by the failure of Czar Nicholas to get his orders to his minister of war. General Soukhomlinoff, carried out so that the general mobiliza- tion under way might be halted. A sane diplomacy, willing to preserve the peace of the world, would have served notice upon the Austro- Hungarian government that measures taken against Serbia would have to be accounted for and their consequence borne. As it was, the diplomacy of Europe and Great Britain was on the single track of maneuvering for war, in the case of some governments; in the case of others treaty obli- gations and prestige drove their nations over the precipice. Great Britain alone could have prevented the Great War. Her special position gave her that power and conferred upon her that duty. Had Sir Edward Grey frankly informed the German government the catas- trophe might have been averted. I say might have been averted for the reason that I am not so sure that the German government would not have run the risk for all that. In Germany the very thought of a big navy had, as has been the case before, created in many the impression that such a sea power was already in existence. The contemplation of the thing 64 THE CRAFT SINISTER that was to be, had fired the brains of many with a wild desire to sec it used. But Great Britain did nothing of the sort. Prince Lichnowski, who only recently published his very interesting but quite foolish memoirs concerning his stay in London as German ambassador, was one of those German diplomatists who thought their wishes and hopes to be reality. Edward Grey had assured him on many occasions that Great Britain was not as absolutely committed to France as was believed. The German ambassador believed that, and has since then been paid the compliment by Mr. Shaw that he was too honest a man to deal with the British premier, that, as a matter of fact, he credited Sir Edward with the qualities he himself had. I am not so sure that this is in accord with the facts. In what particular respect Sir Edward was unusually dishonest, for a politician, has not been shown. To leave Lichnowski under the impres- sion that Great Britain had a free hand in regard to France was perfectly lionest when viewed in the light of accepted diplomatic morality. Not to leave the German ambassador in these false hopes would have been an instance of altruistic conduct, not only toward Germany but to the world as well. Governments, as a rule, are expected to be altruistic only with themselves. Most of them follow that principle in statecraft. Lichnowski actually believed that Great Britain would stay out of the war. He has since then admitted this to the extent of confessing that he thought Great Britain would come to the aid of France only in case the neutrality of Belgium was violated. There was a time, however, when he was positive that the British government would on no account go to war with Germany — entente or no. Of the great simplicity of Prince Lichnowski, and his need-born optimism I have found telling corroboration in a book on official pre-war correspondence, suppressed by the publisher thereof. I refer to von Mach's "Diplomatic Documents Relating to the Outbreak of the European War." Pages 593-94: German Ambassador at London to the German Imperial Chancellor, dated 1st August, 1914. "Sir Edward Grey has just called me to the telephone and has asked me whether I thought I could declare that, in the event of France remaining neutral in a German-Russian war, we would not attack the French. I told him that I believed I could assume responsibility for this. Lichnowski." Pages 594-95 : His Majesty King George to His Majesty the Emperor William, dated 1st August, 1914. "In answer to your telegram, which has just been received, I believe that there must be a misunderstanding with regard to a THE TERMS OF THE BNTBNTB CORDIALB 65 suggestion which was made in a friendly conversation between Prince Lichnowski and Sir Edward Grey when they were dis- cussing how an actual conflict between the German and French armies might be avoided, so long as there is still a possibility of an agreement being arrived at between Austria and Russia. Sir Edward Grey will see Prince Lichnowski early tomorrow morn- ing in order to ascertain whether there is any misunderstanding on his side. Gkorg^." Page 595 : * ' German Ambassador at London to the German Imperial Chancellor, dated 2nd August, 1914. "The suggestions of Sir Edward Grey based on the desire of creating the possibility of lasting neutrality on the part of England were made without any previous inquiry of France and without knowledge of the mobilization, and have since been given up as quite impracticable. Lichnowski." Since the text of the telegrams, the dates and the general aspect of the situation then prevailing are more eloquent than any explanation possibly could be, the reader is left to draw his own conclusions, though attention is directed to the apologetic tone of Lichnowski's telegram of August 2, in which he explains for Sir Edward Grey what no longer needed such treatment. The Attitude of Prince Lichnowski Far more eloquent is something which occurred about noon on July 30. With Lichnowski was at the time Dr. Richard von Kuhlmann, subse- quently minister at The Hague and ambassador at Constantinople and later state secretary for foreign affairs. Kiihlmann was then the conseiller of the German ambassador to the court of St. James, and as such had to be consulted by Prince Lichnowski much of tener than this rich, well-trained and somewhat overbearing diplomatist found agreeable. Kiihlmann had the nasty habit of looking facts in the face. He was of the **new school" of German diplomatists and decidedly Anglophile, yet not blindly so in matters of duty. The conseiller had just discussed with the ambassador what Great Britain might do — would do, so far as Kiihlmann's judgment went. He was about to leave when the doorman announced to Prince Lichnowski that Captain von Miiller, the embassy's naval attache, was very urgent in his desire to be received. The ambassador was not edified by this. He looked upon the attache as a man with alarmist leaning, and felt that he would bring another series of bad tidings. After saying as much 66 THE CRAFT SINISTER to Kiihlmann, the ambassador told the doorman to invite the captain to come in. Evidently the naval attache had news of importance. To some remark of Lichnowski's to that effect he laid on the table what turned out to be a report to the person of the emperor. Under pressing conditions, or when the subject was important enough, such reports were made by military and naval attaches. The ambassador read the report, then looked up at the attache and at Kiihlmann with a pained expression on his face. "My dear captain!" he said as he handed the paper to Kiihlmann. "This report cannot be sent. I have been trying hard to keep this country and Germany at peace, and have almost succeeded. All my work will be in vain in case this report gets to His Majesty. I beg you not to send it." Captain von Miiller could not see it that way. His report said that he had just learned that the mobilization orders of the British govern- ment were of such a nature that the immediate general use of the naval and military establishments was contemplated. It was certain also, said the report, that Great Britain proposed coming to the assistance of France in any event. Whether Germany attacked France through Alsace-Lorraine, Luxembourg or Belgium would make no difference. The German naval attache had his authority for these statements. To him this seemed reliable enough, but Prince Lichnowski thought the assertions of the report so out of harmony with the facts, as he thought of them, that he questioned the accuracy of the information. He asked Conseiller Kiihlmann what his opinion was and received a non-committal reply. It was plain to the attache that Kuhlmann did not want to interfere, but he, nevertheless, was inclined to side with the report. To make a long story short. Captain von Miiller was prevailed upon not to dispatch the report immediately, as he had intended, but to wait for further developments. When, finally, the ambassador consented to the forwarding of the telegram, having then been convinced that the attache was right, it was too late. A few hours before the British government had given orders to the telegraph service that no more dispatches in code from the German and Austro-Hungarian embassies were to be ac- cepted. Lichnowski in this manner held up the means that might have caused the men in Berlin to yet change their course. The report itself was not authoritative, to be sure, but it would have been a warning. It might have accomplished more than a statement from the British premier, because such a statement from Sir Edward direct might have caused the Berlin government to be more touchy than ever, while the same notice from the THE ATTITUDE OF PRINCE UCHNOWSKI 67 German naval attache at London, a man of high standing, would have appealed more to common sense than to the susceptibilities of the pride of monarchs and ministers. The reader may ask how I come to know the details of the case. My informants are Captain von Miiller himself. Dr. Richard von Kiihl- mann, Baron Carl von Giskra, at that time Austro-Hungarian minister at The Hague, and a neutral diplomatist at London whose name I am not permitted to give. Prince Lichnowski has made no mention of this incident and its features in the pamphlet of self-defense published by him in Switzerland, nor has he at all intimated to what extent the wool was pulled over his eyes by Sir Edward Grey — all of which was natural enough in the case of a man who smarted more under the treatment that was given him at home, when his mission was terminated by a fiasco, than he resented the masterly manner in which the British foreign minister convinced him that black was white. Meanwhile, the wires of Europe were hot with frantic endeavors to avert the highly imminent war. Emperor William was wiring in all directions. He pleaded with Czar Nicholas, and his cousin. King George, but did little enough to bring Austria-Hungary to her senses.* In a large measure that was due to the fact that Emperor Francis Joseph was no longer the actual head of the Austro-Hungarian government. Nominally still the chief of that government, the old man was living now entirely in the past — a past in which monarchs made war according to personal formula. Count Berchtold had persuaded him that Serbia deserved no better than she was getting, and there was in Belgrade no brother monarch in whom old Francis Joseph would have taken an interest sufficiently great to cause him to occupy himself with the ultimatum from that angle. The old emperor, in addition, had too fine an opinion of the military strength of his German ally to worry over the possibility of war, and when the moment came that war was inevitable he calmly left affairs in the hands of the same ally. That there was some corre- spondence on the subject of the ultimatum to Serbia between the two emperors is most likely. It has not been published, however. Allied rulers and allied governments, necessarily, do not include their own cor- respondence in the "papers" they afterward publish. That the German government stood so valiantly by Austria-Hungary in those days has puzzled a good many impartial observers. An alliance of defense leaves usually some way out for the signatory who may con- * The recent publication of what is known as the "Kautsky" papers, dealing with this phase of relations between the Austro-Hungarian government and Emperor William and his ministers, corroborates this in a most absolute manner. 68 THE CRAFT SINISTER sider that the co-signatory had been the aggressor in an imprudent de- gree. Italy did this later on, and there is no reason to believe that the German government could not have advanced .the same contention and in this manner, with all honor saved, left Austria-Hungary at the mercy of the Russians. There are limits even to loyalty, and generally these limits are prescribed by the self-interest of the other party. It must be accepted, therefore, that the German government had much in common with the Austro-Hungarian government. But it was not in Serbia itself where these interests met. In fact, so far as Serbia was directly concerned German and Austro-Hungarian interests were opposed. When the government in Vienna sanctioned the tariff war upon vSerbia it was Germany which bought from the Serbs most of what they could export, and so long as the German government supported Russia on the Balkan as against Austria-Hungary, Belgrade had staunch friends in Berlin. The support given the Austro-Hungarian government by the German government had its causal origin in the general political situation in Europe. When Emperor William and his advisors stood for the localization of the Serbian-Austro-Hungarian difficulty they had in mind the curb that had to be placed upon Russian designs southward and southwestward. It was Pan- Slavism that bothered Berlin. The Slavs of Austria and Hungary and those in the Balkans were gravitating toward Russia. A declaration of war by the Russian government against Austria-Hungary would have caused the latter to fall to pieces if not supported by the German army, and overnight Russia would have had Germanic Europe at her mercy in that event. Just as the British had their "German peril" so had the Germans their "russische Gefahr" — ^Russian peril. To meet that peril before Russia could complete her strategic railroads close to the German and Austro-Hungarian borders and carry through the reor- ganization of her increased army was considered the paramount duty by the men in Berlin. If that could be accomplished diplomatically so much the better; if it had to be done on the field of battle then, as most Germans thought, the inevitable had to be faced a little ahead of time — a scant twelve months at that, as the situation was viewed. Germany was not by any means unanimous in this matter. As stated before, there were many who looked upon Austria-Hungary as a poor sort of ally. From the military point of view the dual monarchy was accepted by some of the leading German statesmen as a charge rather than a gain. In that respect Austria-Hungary was not much better than Italy, as these men thought. On the whole the Junker element of Prussia, then quite the strongest factor in the German imperial government, was rather Russophile. And THE ATTITUDE OF PRINCE LICHNOWSKI 69 it was this honestly. Being reactionaries mostly, the Prussian Junkers looked upon the control of the Russian masses by a handful of autocrats at St. Petersburg with admiration. East of the Elbe they had social standards that differed from Russian social standards only in so far as they were more genuinely paternal. So far as the proletariat was concerned the Russian government was a neglectful father, while the Prussian gov- ernment, equally stern and absolute, was really mindful of at least the physical wants of the governed. It was the Junker element of Germany which had in the past exam- ined critically the Triple Alliance and subjected it to much scrutiny. Since this group thought in terms of "Realpolitik" it was but natural that it came to oppose the Austrophiles in Germany. For many years before the War Russian and Austro-Hungarian interests had been in hostile contact in the Balkans. Russia wanted to get to the Mediterranean by way of Constantinople and the straits and thought the incorporation of the Balkan Slavs a pleasant and profitable incident to this, while Austria- Hungary wanted to prevent these very things, feeling that the loss of her own Slav population meant the doom of the state. The Slavs in the dual monarchy were the keystone of the state, holding up the German- Austrian and Hungarian half-arches. To lose that keystone was synony- mous with the end of the monarchy, and might even lead to Russian suzerainty in all of Austria-Hungary. The Russian peril was much more of a reality to Central Europe than the German peril was that to Great Britain. There were men in Germany who wished to placate that peril. In Austria and Hungary that element was wholly absent. The Junker party of Prussia was forever for a rapprochement with Russia, but made little progress owing to the fact that the Liberals of Germany did not propose having their country Russified in addition to being Prussianized. Liberal South Germany was consistently pro-Austrian for no other reason and was mainly responsible for the continuation of Austrophile politics in Berlin, rendering futile in this manner the "orientation toward the East" which the Junkers, as the better politicians, persistently advocated. Social Russia was a stench in the nostrils of the German Liberals, as it was in those of progressives everywhere. On the one hand this led to the cementing of the Triple Entente, and on the other to the reinforcement of the Triple Alliance, so far as Germany and Austria-Hungary were con- cerned. To the claim of the Junkers that Austrophilism would in the end prove the undoing of the German empire, the Liberals replied that closer relations with Russia would do the same thing socio-politically. Thus it^came about that the German government gave its support to the Austro-Hungarian government in its program of action in Serbia. ;0 THE CRAFT SINISTER We must now turn to Petrograd — then still St. Petersburg — to see what was taking place there. The trial of General Yanushkevitch, chief of staflF of the Russian army, during the initial phases of the War, has established that he did not carry out the orders given him by Emperor Nicholas. Backed by Minister of War General SoukhomlinofF, by Grand Duke Nicholai Nicholaievitch and by Sazonoff, the chief of staff felt him- self free to lie to his imperial master, the czar. Nicholas had learned from Emperor William, Count Pourtales, the German ambassador at St. Petersburg, and the German military attache that the Russian mobilization was not a partial one, as had been ordered, but one of so general a char- acter that the German government considered it a menace. At first Czar Nicholas was not inclined to pay much attention to the claim of the Germans, but finally decided to ascertain whether or no, after all, there was some truth in what he had heard. He called General Yanushkevitch to the telephone and questioned him, to be told that the mobilization was indeed a partial one. It was from this angle that Czar Nicholas pursued his correspondence with Emperor William. Meanwhile the general mobilization continued, and left the German emperor in no other position than to assume that his brother monarch in St. Petersburg was lying to him. Berlin was well informed on what the Russian general staflF was doing. It had many friends in Russia and the Russian army — many of them Baltic Germans, who in the past had been zealous promoters of a Russo-German entente. The news which these managed to get to the German diplomatic mission at St. Petersburg, and through that agency to Berlin, was a sweeping contradiction of the letter and spirit of the telegrams Czar Nicholas was sending to Emperor William. With every thought only on war and with the militarists supreme by row, there was no longer any hope that diplomacy might effect a concilia- tion. The mobilization of Russia was general and was making rapid headway, and Germany saw herself obliged to follow suit. The attitude of Paris and London was as menacing as that of St. Petersburg, and there was now no time for any other move than to stand pat by Austria- Hungary. The Conduct of a Mad Militarist To German apologies in regard to this situation it has often been remarked that the German government could have mobilized its army, concentrated it along the Russo-German border and then awaited develop- ments. From the peace point of view that is indeed a good argument. Two parties not willing to fight might do that; eager to fight they would not do it, of course. In their mobilization the Russians had quite a start THE CONDUCT OF A MAD MILITARIST 71 over the Germans. It is not good policy when war is imminent to wait until the other party has every man in the field; it would not have been good policy for the Germans to do this in this instance, since the Russian army was numerically much the superior of the German. Nor would it have been easy for the German government to explain later on that it per- mitted all initial advantages of war to sHp into the hands of the Russians by a conciliatory attitude that might not have changed the situation at all in the end. From that angle the German government acted indeed on the defensive. Allowances must be made for a man, Emperor William in this instance, who as chief executive of a nation receives from another chief executive assurances that bear the stamp of sincerity, because they were sincere, while from his own agents he gets information that the preparations for war are proceeding on a general scale at maximum speed. The case of General Yanushkevitch is of more than incidental inter- est. It has been said that he was a mad militarist and Germanophobe and that for this reason he took the making of war into his own hands, by telling the czar that a partial mobilization was going on, when he knew that a general mobilization was in progress. There is no doubt that Czar Nicholas was under that impression to the very last, though as yet it has not been explained how the news was ultimately broken to him. There is reason to believe that much would have been different had the facts in regard to mobilization in Russia, as they reached Berlin, coincided with the conciliatory and pacific spirit of Czar Nicholas' telegrams to the German emperor. Minds would have sufficiently cooled off to permit the taking of stock, and the European War might have still been avoided. That it would have been avoided seems a reckless statement under the circumstances ; at any rate, reason would have been given a chance. Though M. Sazonoff himself has been one of those who have claimed that General Yanushkevitch was solely responsible for the extent of the Russian mobilization, it would be ridiculous to assume for even a moment that such was the case. While the credulity of the world public has ever been great, there are times when those presuming upon it go a little too far. M. Sazonoff knew that the chief of staff had lied to the czar, as did General Soukhomlinoff, the minister of war, and Grand Duke Nicholai Nicholaievitch, the Russian commander in chief. Yet even these could not shoulder so tremendous a responsibility without assurances that, come what might, France and Great Britain would support every act of theirs. The men who actually had the war machine in hand, so far as contact between Russia and France and England was concerned, were: Sir George Buchanan, the British ambassador at Petrograd; M. Paleo- logue, the French ambassador at the same capital; Count Benckendorff, 72 THE CRAFT SINISTER the Russian ambassador at London, and M. Isvolski, the Russian ambas- sador at Paris. Needless to say, the leaders of the British and French governments were the source of their authority. I make this statement on the strength of information which reached me in Constantinople. M. N. de Giers, the Russian ambassador at that point, maintained the friendliest relations with the Bulgarian legation, then in charge of M. Koulocheff, a man of strong Russophile tendencies, who in those days was anything but a friend of the Germans and Turks. Mons. de Giers, oddly enough, was strongly pro-German, and spoke of the international war camarilla in St. Petersburg in terms that were not exactly flattering. De Giers was rather Anglophobe and doubted that Great Britain would ever do anything to place Russia in possession of Constantinople — a rather sound conclusion with which M. Koulocheflf begged to differ. The Bulgarian minister thought otherwise. He saw the future of his own country in the light of Pan-Slavism and the eradica- tion of the Turks and Germans even after his country had become an ally of theirs. He was a Russophile of the subservient type, and for that reason always well informed on affairs in Russia. In this connection I must state that Sir George Buchanan was the leader of this bloody combination in Petrograd, while M. Isvolski worked most of the wires abroad. Isvolski had been somewhat of a friend of the Germans at one time. Of the Austrians he was rather fond, especially of their women. But it seems that the experiences he had with Counts Aehrenthal and Berchtold, in connection with the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, cured him of all Austrophilism. For this the man, reducing the case to one ad hominem, cannot be blamed. Yet that is hardly an endorsement of state representation that makes it possible to throw whole nations into misery because a single person may have a grudge against another. Isvolski would have served the world better to tell Counts Aehrenthal and Berchtold that he could not bind his government to any such bargain — such a one-sided one at that. A Diplomatic Jeu de Grimace On the fateful July 31 two rather interesting things occurred. The British government thought it necessary to ask the French government whether or no it would abide, in regard to the neutrality of Belgium, by the terms of the treaty it had signed. A finer piece of cant is hard to discover. Of course, the French government would respect the neu- trality of Belgium ! The same inquiry went to Berlin. But Sir Edward Goschen did not get so ready an answer as Sir F. Bertie received from Premier Viviani. Sir Edward presented the inquiry of his government A DIPLOMATIC JBU DB GRIMACE 73 to Herr von Jagow, the German state secretary for foreign affairs, and received from him the reply that he could not answer without consulting first the emperor and the chancellor. Those who know what the German imperial system of government was will concede that Jagow had no author- ity to say either yes or no under the circumstances, all the more since under the ministerial system of Germany, at that time, he was but little more than vortragender Rat — reporting counselor, a straw-man in other words. Von Jagow could receive inquiries and complaints, and could, after bringing the matter to the attention of Chancellor von Bethmann- Hollweg, transmit a reply. More than that he could not do; such being the wonderful aspect of Byzantinism as practiced on the banks of the River Spree. Sir Edward Goschen knew this, of course, and made it his business to see the chancellor himself. From Bethmann-Hollweg he received a reply to the effect that "Germany, in any event (before committing herself) would want to hear what the French government's answer was." No doubt, that was a foolish playing with words. But Bethmann- Hollweg was really in no position to give a clearer reply. The German general staff had so long looked upon the use of Belgian territory as necessary in case of war with France that the chancellor was afraid to be specific. He was sparring for time and hoping, meanwhile, as he has since then admitted, that something would happen to save him from having to deal with this situation. He knew well enough that in case of war he would be powerless to prevent the invasion of Belgium. The radical military element would then have its way, no matter what objections he might laise. A Bismarck would indeed have told Sir Edward that Germany would respect the neutrality of Belgium. The making of such a promise might not have pleased the militarists, but Bismarck would have realized that not even the worst of that element would have dared to remove him so long as the crisis was on. There are some things which even the German emperor could not afford to do, and one of them was a change in chancellors in July and August, 1914. But Bethmann-Hollweg was not a heroic type of man. In his official acts he was timid and shortsighted, as was to be expected from an individual of a moderately arriviste character — from a man who had risen in the government in the police department, in whom system and orderliness of the extreme class had killed all initiative. There was another condition that beclouded the mentality of the German government at that moment, if the case may be expressed in those words. The attitude of the French government was such that Baron von Schon, the German ambassador at Paris, could make but the most pessi- mistic reports to his government. The result of this was that he was 74 THE CRAFT SINISTER instructed to immediately ascertain what the French government intended doing. On July 31, as late as 7 p. m., the German ambassador served notice upon the French premier, M. Viviani, that by 1 p. m. on the following day the German government expected a definite declaration, on the part of France, what she would do in case war should break out between Germany and Russia. Viviani did not need the time given him. His mind, or that of his government, had been made up long ago. He told Baron von Schon that France would do that which the safeguarding of her interests prescribed. From that enigmatic reply the German government could draw no other conclusion than that France had made up her mind to go to war on the side of Russia. Indeed, no other course was open. The Franco- Russian alliance was still in force, was, in fact, the written treaty upon which the Triple Entente rested, and, according to its terms, France would have to come to the aid of her ally in case of attack. Another reply could have been given by Viviani had he willed to do that in the interest of peace. He could have told Schon that France v/ould live up to her treaty agreement in case Germany attacked Russia, but that she was not obliged to do that in case Russia was the aggressor. That would have been a bid for peace. The reply Viviani gave was an incentive to war — a promotion of German distrust and fear, and the direct cause of her declaration of war against Russia within a few hours. The piece of simulation which the British and French governments had indulged in regarding the neutrality guarantees of Belgium stood now unmasked in Berlin. It was a sinister writing on the wall. On August 1 Sir Edward Grey had another occasion to discuss the neutrality of Belgium with Prince Lichnowski. It was this conversation which made the trustful German ambassador suspicious for the first time of the attitude of the British government. So far he had lived in his delusion that war could be localized. The contents of the report which Captain von Miiller had made had caused Prince Lichnowski to recognize the possibility that Great Britain might go to war on the side of Russia and France. Already the man was out of his wits, though still sure of his ground that Great Britain, despite the frictions of years, would not strike at a country that had been the traditional friend of the British. He asked Grey whether Great Britain would remain neutral in case Germany did not violate the neu- trality of Belgium and received a reply from the British secretary of state for foreign affairs that was a worthy counterpart of the answer the French premier, M. Viviani, had made. Sir Edward Grey replied that he could not say whether or no Great Britain would remain neutral A DIPLOMATIC JBU DB GRIM ASS B 75 in case of war between Germany, Russia and France, but that the hands of the British government were yet free, and that the position which Great Britain might take had yet to he considered. PubUc opinion, said Sir Eklward, had to be taken into account, and public opinion in Great Britain was very much exercised over the possibiUty of Belgium's neutrality being violated. On the other hand, Sir Edward would not promise neutrality on the condition that Germany made the promise that she would respect the status of Belgium. That again left things in the air. The reply which Grey gave Lich- nowski was virtually the same Baron von Schon had gotten from M. Viviani. The text of the records made of the two meetings diflfers, of course, and in the official white and yellow books they seem very dis- similar. The fact is that neither of them is a stenographic report, made at the time, but merely a statement of a conversation as an ambassador, in the one case, and a foreign minister, in the other, remembered it. A Bull in a Political China Shop But so far nothing had really happened in Germany that could cause the British and French statesmen to believe that the men in Berlin, at least Emperor William, who was still telegraphing to and pleading with his fellow-monarchs and relatives, would not abstain from violating the neutrality of Belgium. At any rate Belgium had not yet been invaded, and so far the German government had made no demands upon the Belgian government. The first of these was made on August 2nd and was based by Germany on the report that French troops were about to enter upon Belgian territory, near Givet and Namur, for an attack upon Germany. The writer has no means of knowing to what extent this report was true. The French government has steadfastly denied that the German claim was founded on fact, and we must bear in mind that in the excite- ment of those days the information of the Germans may have been unre- liable; may, in fact, have been the work of some zealous agent who had more ambition than discretion. Since I have met many of that ilk who were so constituted I am inclined to believe that such was the case. The most dangerous human being I know is the government agent who wishes to make his mark. On the other hand, the Entente governments have claimed that the substance of the "strictly confidential communication" which the German minister at Brussels, von Below, transmitted to Baron van der Elst, Belgian general secretary of the exterior, was a mere pretext for the open- ing of negotiations by which Germany hoped to get the consent of the Belgian government for the use of Belgian territory in the military operations that seemed now more inevitable than ever. 76 THE CRAFT SINISTER The facts of the case support this interpretation strongly, and the admission by Bethmann-Hollweg that his government had done wrong seems to be in itself enough to prove that Berlin was far too eager to make an issue of what may have been no more than an incident to the mobilization of the French army. The presence of large bodies of French troops near the Belgian border was in reality symptomatic of nothing, so far as Belgium was concerned. The troops might have been intended, so far as the general aspect of things then went, to protect French territory in case Germany did violate the neutrality of Belgium. France, of course, had ^ right to mass troops along the Belgian border, to take care of an eventuality of a critical character given prominence by specific diplo- matic conversation. A sane government in Berlin would have paid no attention whatever to the presence of French troops near Givet and Namur, especially since troops held there would not have to be encountered along the western border of Alsace-Lorraine. Instead of taking that very prudent attitude the German government did exactly what it should not have done. It made the neutrality of Belgium, guaranteed by Prussia first and later accepted as an obligation by the empire, the subject of debate, lost some time in doing that, sacri- ficed her military chances in the south and gave its enemies a very excellent weapon for propaganda warfare. , ■ ', ^ The German government has made a great deal of certain state documents found in the Belgian archives after the invasion of Belgium had become a fact. Per se, these records prove only that Great Britain and France were rather well informed of the plans of the German general staff and government. They prove also that Great Britain had of a sudden taken an unusual amount of interest in the status of Belgium, and that in the course of the few years immediately preceding the war, the British government had come to regard Belgium as a sort of naval and military base on the Continent. Great Britain, if -we take the conventional view of things, could not be prevented from doing that, nor was it feasible to dissuade the French government from similar activity, any more than later it was possible to keep Germany from actually invading Belgium. The designs of our neighbors are something over which we have no con- trol so long as no attempt is made to carry them into execution. The documents found demonstrated also that members of the Belgian general staff had been in co-operation with the British and French army men, who had "organized," on paper, so far, the military exigencies in Belgium. It can hardly be said that on the part of the Belgian government this was the strictest adherence a treaty can be given. A treaty not observed in spirit is bound to be ultimately disregarded in text. This is one of the few rules that have no exception. Even the stoutest admirer of A BULL IN A POLITICAL CHINA SHOP 17 Belgium must concede that in this respect the treaty in question was leaky, and had been made that by the Belgian government itself. To consider with two of the signatories the eventuality of infraction of the treaty by a third signatory may be diplomacy, but is not an out-and-out honest transaction. It must be borne in mind, however, that in international relations the ideal is not to be obtained any more than in the other conditions and problems that worry mankind. From this angle the Belgian government was less culpable. The militarists and expansionists of Germany had been so intemperate in their language, had given their country so threatening an aspect that the Belgian government might indeed cast about for succor to be summoned when the day of trial came. Against that stands what the Germans came to identify as a national and military necessity: The invasion of Belgium and the use of her territory against the French in case of war. The number of Germans who were against the invasion of Belgium was rather small, and dwindled to zero as with the progress of the war the Germans began to feel that the cards had been stacked against them. What pangs of conscience there were felt — if war leaves room for such a thing — were set aside by the feeling that with Germany attacked from every quarter any measure of self -protection was allowed. In the course of time this became a recognized doctrine, and after that discussion of the case was no longer possible. There were the incriminating documents ! How and when they were found was over- looked as was the fact that finding them was a bit of belated luck — nothing more. Had Berlin been in possession of any evidence, showing that the Belgian government had entered into military liaison with Great Britain and France, that evidence, and not the fear of French troops massing along the Belgian border, would have been made the substance of representations by the Germans in Brussels on August 2. The finding of the papers was, therefore, proof of nothing, so far as the position of the German government was concerned. The Government "Official" as Statesman Even if the case had been one of evidence and proof, as outlined above, the German government had as yet no specific cause for complaint, at least no very weighty one. It could, indeed, have called upon the Belgian government* for an explanation, and it would not have been easy to give a satisfactory explanation. But invasion and war could have beeen averted, so far as Belgium was concerned, by her promise to adhere to the treaty of 1839, by which Holland acknowledged Belgium an independent state with "eternal" neutrality, and to which Prussia, France, Great Britain, 78 THE CRAFT SINISTER Russia and Austria-Hungary became parties in the quality of guarantors. The German government failed to approach the case from that angle because it had no knowledge of what had been done behind its own back and that of at least one other guarantor, Austria-Hungary. Instead it made the possible intention of the French government the subject of overtures calculated to get from the Belgian government the consent for the use of Belgian territory against France, another guarantor. The government in Brussels could not give such consent. That much at least was clear to the men in Berlin. The best they expected was a lenient protest against. the proposed invasion and the retirement of the Belgian government to a city further west, Antwerp, for instance. That such conduct would have given the French the right to also enter upon Belgian territory, and that in such an event Belgium would have become a theater of war in a quarrel in which her people were not interested, was something which Berlin expected the Belgian government to overlook in return for payment. To say that this ,was expecting too much from a country and people is putting it mildly. Bismarck had taken a more sensible view of this situation, the right view, in fact, in 1870, when, over the head of the militarists of his day, he announced that the Treaty of 1839 was something which Prussia considered binding. But Bismarck was the Iron Chancellor, while Bethmann-HoUweg was a mere government official. Bismarck was a statesman, Bethmann-HoUweg a politician and a very poor one at that. The former measured his acts by results they would have twenty years hence, the latter lived mentally from hand to mouth, as he had done politically. The claim of the German government that the use of Belgian territory was a military necessity is hardly of sufficient importance to merit attention. It is on a par with the assertions of Emperor William that he could not stop his mobilization. To be sure, a mobilization is something that will, for hours at any rate, travel on its own impetus, but in our days, with telegraphic and telephonic means of communication, even the poorest of general staffs ought to be able to arrest such a preparation for war. The plea that the mobilization program contained no provisions for the arrest of a mobilization and the diverting of troops to places other than selected in the first place falls flat also. If such provisions had not been made the great efficiency of the German general staff was indeed a very one-sided affair, efficient only for war and totally inefficient for peace. By and large the absence of so prudent a feature means that in Berlin, and in all other capitals, for that matter, they thought that war there must be once the dogs had been loosed. After all, we deal here with nothing but lame excuses of a diplomatic sort. The facts were other. The situation in Russia, where the czar made assurances of good will THE GOVERNMENT "OFFICIAL" AS STATESMAN 79 that were honest enough, and where Sazonoif, Grand Duke Nicholai Nicholaievitch, General Soukhomlinoff and others were speeding a general mobilization over the head of the sovereign and supreme commander, and the replies given German ambassadors by M. Viviani and Sir Edward Grey, left the German government no alternative to preparing for war. Between the Serbs and the Austro-Hungarians war was already in prog- ress, and the German government, therefore, could not but mobilize as rapidly and completely as possible. German troops were concentrating along the German border, from Dutch Limburg down to Switzerland, and on August 3 the French government gave Baron von Schon, the German ambassador, his passports. The Great War was on. Under Bismarck the Prussian government had managed to get its own troops into battle position far south of the point which the general staff of William II considered the tactical and strategic center of battle formation, if that term may be applied to what the Germans know as Aufmarsch. If that was possible at a time when Bavaria, Wuerttemberg and Baden were merely the allies of Bismarck and Prussia, when they were states whom France expected to remain neutral, how much more was this possible with those countries an integral part of the empire and with their own military forces directly under the control of the German general staff in Berlin. The argument made by apologists for the German imperial government that the situation was different in 1914 from what it had been in 1870 is not very convincing. To be sure, the situation was somewhat different, but it was diiferent only in so far that it was more in favor of the German army and fortunes of war, as compared with what Moltke and Bismarck had to cope with. The French had since 1871 greatly improved their defenses in situ adjacent to the border, but, on the other hand, the German army had means to reduce this disadvan- tage correspondingly. Advantages were on the side of the Germans because in 1914 their army was being directed as an unit which in 1870 the Prussian Allied armies were not. With such matters the German general staff did not concern itself any too much. It was out for a quick victory, through Belgium. The fortifications of the French along the Belgian border were not as formida- ble as those west of the Vosges hills. There was to be an Ueberrumplung — defeat of the French by crushing surprise. Belgium stood in the way of that, and Belgium had to make way. Such was the major and true aspect of mentality in the government circles in Berlin now that the Triple Entente had decided to measure issues on the field of battle with the Triple Alliance. We must doubt that in London, Paris and St. Petersburg they would have done otherwise. 80 THE CRAFT SINISTER On the possibility that the Belgian parliament would have acted as a check on the Belgian government in case the latter had shown partiality toward the French and British we need not dwell too heavily. Parlia- ments the world over, the Congress of the United States included, have had little or nothing to do with the conditions that prevailed immediately anterior to the state of war. In all cases the executive branch of the government presented them with a fait accompli and a demand for war credits. The accomplished fact was either that a state of war existed or that relations with the foreign government were on the breaking point. The best which any body of legislators has done in such circumstances is to applaud the men on the ministerial bench and then vote money for war ad libitum — ad nauseum. The Solons of our day become just plain subjects and citizens on the day on which the government, impelled by necessities of its own in which the "public interest" is supposed to be crystalized, declares that a state of war exists and implies that this also extends to those legislators who might have the temerity to examine into the facts of the case — which temerity is adjudged to be treason by nations everywhere. What the German Government Overlooked The German government would have done its people a great service by keeping the troops massed against the Belgian border on German territory, aflfording thereby the Belgian government the chance to declare itself. In case French military forces really made use of Belgian terri- tory knowledge of that would have been quickly gained by the German government. The process of obtaining an explanation from the Belgian government, as to its intention, would have been simple after that, so simple in fact that it would have been automatic. Against an invasion of Belgium by the French the Belgium government would have been obliged to protest. Failure of that protest would have left the Belgian govern- ment two courses open. One of them would have taken the form of an appeal to the signatories of the Treaty of 1839 ; the other would have been opposition to the violation of her status and territory by means of arms. In that case Belgium would have become a co-belligerent of Germany, as later she became that of France and Great Britain. The German troops would have rushed to her assistance, no doubt, and France, instead of Germany, would have had to bear the stigma of the "scrap of paper." But the men in Berlin could not see that far. An emperor who, to himself at least, enjoyed somewhat the blessings of omniscience, was too shortsighted — too poor a statesman and diplomatist to see so simple a case of logical development of a situation. The Belgian government had no way out of this. Its neutrality remained either sacred to the French, WHAT THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT OVERLOOKED 81 or a declaration of war against France was, under the circumstances, inevitable. It was violated by Germany, and Belgian participation in the Great War resulted. I have used the modification italicized above for a purpose. I say under the circumstances because an appeal of Belgium to Great Britain and Russia against the violation of her neutrality and territory by France would have led to a situation of the most peculiar type. Let us imagine the Belgian government calling to its assistance Great Britain and Russia in an effort to maintain her status under the Treaty of 1839, with France as the offender, the same France with whom Great Britain and Russia were allied for the purpose of keeping Germany on good behavior. What an impossible situation that would have been! Imagine further that this situation had come into being in the first days of August, 1914. Great Britain and Russia, according to the asserverations of their states- men, would have been obliged to also side with Germany in its war upon France. It is entirely out of the question that this possibility had been over- looked in London, St. Petersburg and Paris. It is not to be thought of that Belgian neutrality was ever associated with so strange a proposition. It was not only to the interest of the Triple Entente that Belgium remain neutral during at least the initial stages of the war, but such conduct on her part constituted the very principle of whatever measure the Triple Entente would have to apply against Germany along the latter's western frontier. If the Berlin government thought for even a moment that the governments in London, St. Petersburg and Paris had left at all any room for such an "accident" then Germany, indeed, had the poorest gov- ernment and foreign office a people was ever cursed with. It was to the interest, it was a sine qua non, of Triple Entente diplomacy and state- craft, that Belgium, so far as France and Great Britain were concerned, and so far as the initial stages of the Great War went, retain its neutrality untouched — blemished only by what understanding there was between the Belgian government and Paris and London. It is remarkable, to say the least, that nobody in Berlin ever gave voice to this fact. But it is not to be assumed on that account that nobody ever thought of it. My opinion of German diplomacy is not very high, but it is hard to believe that there were men in the German government who would not have smiled, even in those days of stress, at the suggestion that the Triple Entente had left room for a contingency in which London and St, Petersburg had to protest against the violation of the neutrality of Belgium by France, and then come to the aid of France against Germany with large armies and a blockade, nevertheless. A more ludi- crous situation could not be thought of ; a greater predicament could not 82 THE CRAFT SINISTER be pictured by the cleverest writer of farce. Since it cannot be assumed, within reason, that the German government was not fully aware of this, we must needs accept, all assertions to the contrary notwithstanding, that the violation of the neutrality of Belgium was a deliberate act on the part of the German government, decided upon long beforehand by a general staff that thought in terms of maximum results in a minimum of time without thinking at all that the neighbor has rights which should be re- spected.* A Piece of Diplomatic Hjrpocrisy I have already referred to the fact that Sir F. Bertie, the British ambassador at Paris, on July 31 made a formal inquiry of the French premier, M. Viviani, whether or no France, in case of war, would respect the neutrality of Belgium. M. Viviani is on record as saying that France would respect that neutrality, and that France might depart from that policy only in case another violated the neutrality of Belgium and made this act a factor of insecurity to the French republic. The reply of M. Viviani was brought to the attention of the German government and the German ambassador in London, a procedure which in itself was enough to draw the attention of the government in Berlin to the subject involved and the situations I have already treated. The inquiry made of M. Viviani being entirely gratuitous, we must look upon it as a piece of rank hypocrisy by Sir Edward Grey. British diplomacy has forced a great deal down the throat of a gullible world, but it would seem that the mentality of the general public might have been respected enough, even in London, by not expecting reasonable human beings to believe that this detail of entente was left to so late • It would seem that here we have something for which those responsible for it should be placed on trial before a tribunal set up by the nations that remained neutral throughout the Great War. There are enough such neutrals to make this possible, and the small neutrals of Europe certainly have the greatest interest in the case. The trial of such persons would be both justified and prudent, because it would have a salutary effect of a preventive character. There is no doubt that the premeditation of a military undertaking of this sort has every aspect of a crime, and that it should be reviewed from that angle and its perpetrators punished. The sooner general staff men the world over are made to realize that they may be held responsible, though only, as is now the case, when their army has been defeated, compunction is likely to visit them oftener. The same applies to the civilian part of the governmental personnel which gives its sanction to such raids upon the small neighbor. The conduct of the Allied and Associated governments in the matter of trying German officers and officials charged with "crimes" committed at the front has been a series of bluffs with a political purpose. So long as the principle of reprisal is recognized by governments so long will it be difficult to say what is and what is not a "crime." It is different when, as in the case of the invasion of Belgium, we have a clear case of criminal initiative. If in connection with such a trial the activity of the British and French governments in regrard to Belgium would be traced and weighed so much the better, and a great deal of maudlin sentiment might be disposed of by looking over the conduct of the Belgian government, espe- cially from 1911 to the outbreak of the War. There is no use doing any of these things in case they cannot be undertaken by a tribunal of neutrals, composed of, let us say, men from Switzerland, Holland, Scandinavia with the exception of Denmark, Spain and the neutrals in Latin America. It is to be hoped that the Allied and Associated governments will respect mankind enough not to expect it to have the least confidence in any verdict a handpicked entente tribunal would decide upon. A PIECE OF DIPI^OMATIC HYPOCRISY 83 an hour as July 31, 1914, especially since the discovery of documents, showing that there had been contact between British, French and Belgian authorities on what the status of Belgium was to be in case of war against Germany. We may be excused for asking British diplomacy and historians not to stress that point. The fact is that Belgium had become a vassal state of the British. The fact further is that in Berlin this was known. True enough, the German government was still groping in the dark in this respect, but enough had transpired to leave no doubt that Belgium, in case of a world war, would be an unsicherer Kantonist — uncertain quality. A few years before there had been a most violent campaign in the British press in regard to alleged Belgian atrocities in the Congo, and for a time it seemed as if the Congo would follow the Boer republics. Of a sudden, however, that campaign subsided. The exposure by Sir Edward Carson of the Putomayo atrocities, committed by Britishers, had a great deal to do with diverting the attention of the British public. The British and Belgian governments after that met on a different basis, as the documents found by the Germans demonstrate all too well. France, too, was a party to the understanding that was reached, and in the light of this, as already pointed out, the great concern by Sir Edward Grey for the safety of Belgium was a crass piece of sham. The reply of M. Viviani was in absolute conformity with what had been decided upon several years before by the two groups of poHticians in Paris and London that had managed to keep the governments of France and Great Britain in their hands for the purpose, as was well known, of attendmg to the case of the Triple Alliance at a propitious moment. In France the government had been largely in the hands of Clemenceau. Briand, Pichon, Barthou and Viviani during that period. In Great Britain the same set of office holders had not always followed so very closely and unswervingly in the track of la revanche, as Caillaux knew well enough, but in the main they had been dependable. When they were not, the men in Paris had but to remind themselves of the hopeless naval con- troversy that was going on between Great Britain and Germany to feel that in the end their time and opportunity would come. British interests demanded special scrutiny of Russia. The defeat of the Russian army by the Japanese, and the destruction, virtually, of the Russian war fleet by the same people, eased that situation so that later on it was possible to meet on common ground in Persia. The rapprochement of Germany and Turkey removed Constantinople a little more in the plans of Russia's imperialists, and the annexation of Bosnia and Herze- govina also pushed those plans farther away from realization. Bulgaria, meanwhile, was showing tellingly that she was no longer minded to be 84 THE CRAFT SINISTER the child of Czar Alexander Oswoboditel — a political appanage especially of the Romanoffs, and above all only a great war could clear the socio- political atmosphere of the Muscovite empire and retain in control those classes to which the mujik was still little better than a beast of burden. So far as Russia is concerned none of these aspirations were promoted by the enterprise which was inaugurated in Serbia and which centered so much about Belgium. The British and French were rather more successful — so far as developments permit us to see at present. The period of 1907-14 was indeed the heyday of diplomacy. The isolation of Germany was completed by the Anglo-Russian entente. On this basis of power the diplomatists of the Triple Entente could proceed to labor for the culmination of their purposes with that degree of dignity which everywhere gave them prestige and made their cause holy long before it had reached the distinction that attaches to "cause." Every move of theirs was correct, because the potency of the political combination behind them precluded almost wholly the possibility of mistake. The diplomatists of Germany were not in so comfortable a position. They probably had on the average as much ability as their Triple Entente confreres. What they lacked was power in reserve. Nor was all of the strength behind them real. Austria-Hungary did ultimately far better than the greatest optimists in the Triple Alliance hoped and Italy had long ago passed into the category of uncertain quantities. Thus the Great Debacle came. It came in a manner that proved that diplomacy can be successful only when there is a superiority of power behind it, and when this superiority is actually admitted by those who may be the subjects of diplomacy. British statesmen in the position of the Germans could not have done any better. They would have been guilty of the same "bungling" had their intentions been met, as were those of the Germans, by the superior power and better strategic position of their adversaries. From being isolated, Great Britain became the isolator, and it is not exactly to her credit that she did this with a nation which at one time was really her only friend in Europe. But perfidies of that sort have ever been a favorite means of British statesmanship. For eight years Great Britain maneuvered for position, and then she struck, with Belgium, the poor little lamb, as a bait in the trap set for that most stupid of animals of prey, militaristic Germany. Sir Edward Grey, reduced to the necessity of having to ascertain from M. Viviani in the eleventh hour whether or no France would respect the neutrality of Belgium, will go down the corridors of time as the man greater than a partnership of Machiavel and Metternich. VI WHAT WILL AMERICA DO? IT IS the practice of governments- to serve formal notice of neutrality when a state of war is on between other nations. The United States government has done that on the very heels of each declaration of war, issuing no less than eleven such notices up to September 1, 1914. The documents announced that in the war between the several belligerents the United States government would observe a neutral attitude. The public was enjoined to conduct itself accordingly and attention was drawn to the fact that on the statutes there were laws that provided for the punish- ment of those who forgot their neutrality far enough to engage in acts giving affront to a friendly power. President Wilson was to realize very soon that he would have to give these proclamations a personal touch if they were to be observed in a proper manner. On August 19th he made an "appeal" for neutrality by the American public, from which I will quote here the most essential portions : "The effect of the war upon the United States will depend upon what American citizens say and do. Every man who really loves America will act and speak in the true spirit of neutrality, which is the spirit of impartiality and fairness and friendliness to all concerned. The spirit of the nation in this critical matter will be determined largely by what individuals and society and those gathered in public meetings do and say, upon what newspapers and magazines contain, upon what ministers utter in their pulpits, and men proclaim as their opinion on the streets. The people of the United States are drawn from many nations, and chiefly from the- nations now at war. It is natural and inevitable that there should be the utmost variety of sym- pathy and desire among them with regard to the issues and cir- cumstances of the conflict. Some will wish one nation, others another, to succeed in the momentous struggle. It will be easy to excite passion and difficult to allay it. Those responsible for exciting it will assume a heavy responsibility, responsibility for no less a thing than that of the people of the United States, whose love of their country and whose loyalty to its government should unite them as Americans all, bound in honor and affection to think first of her and her interests, may be divided in camps of 85 86 THE CRAFT SINISTER hostile opinion, hot against each other, involved in the war itself in impulse and opinion if not in action. ♦ ♦♦♦*** "I venture, therefore, my fellow countrymen, to speak a solemn word of warning to you against that deepest, most subtle, most essential breach of neutrality which may spring out of partisanship, out of passionately taking sides. The tjnited States must be neutral in fact as well as in name during these days that are to try men's souls. We must be impartial in thought as well as in action, must put a curb upon our sentiments as well as upon every transaction that might be construed as a preference of one party to the struggle before another." Mr. Wilson has been happier in his selection of words than he was here, but the important fact is that his appeal made a deep impres- sion in Europe. Naturally, Mr. Wilson could not please everybody. In Paris and London they thought even then that it was the duty of the United States government to take an active interest in the fate of Belgium. They thought this all the more when a little later it became loiown that President Wilson had not been particularly obliging to some Belgians who called on him for the purpose of presenting their grievance against Germany. There were many Germans and Austro-Hungarians who at first paid no particular attention to the appeal. To them it seemed a matter of course that the United States should stay out of the war. The admoni- tion of George Washington, warning against entangling alliances, was to them the genesis of the foreign relations of the United States. Presidents Jefferson and Monroe, not to mention virtually every other American president, had heeded this advice by the Father of the Republic; few, in fact, could see how the United States could become involved in the war, except against Great Britain. The diplomacy of Central Europe had moved so long in the groove of "Traditional Enmity" that most of its managers could not see far beyond this sorry limitation. In the case of Germany the idea of la revanche so tenaciously held by the French was responsible for this sad state of affairs, and in the dual monarchy it was disdain for, and fear of, all that was Russian that circumscribed vision and kept it in narrow bounds. There were a few farsighted men in Central Europe who did not like the aspect of things in the United States, however. That President Wilson had been obliged to make an appeal for neutrality, in addition to his neu- trality proclamations, had a significance to these few. While censorship prevented much of the more uncomplimentary expressions by the Ameri- can press becoming known in Central Europe, it was felt, nevertheless, that the American press and public generally was not as neutral as Presi- WHAT WILL AMERICA DO? 87 dent Wilson would have liked to see them. If that was not the case, why this appeal for neutrality ? The majority of American newspapers had been frankly hostile to Germany and Austria-Hungary from the very first. The treatment given Belgium was largely responsible for this, as it well could be. Though the stupidity of the Berlin government was as yet not understood, which, by the way, might have alleviated matters somewhat, the wanton brutality that appeared on the face of the event could not but give journal- ism in the United States the direction it had taken. In its conduct with European nations the United States had always been most considerate and obliging; no such incident had ever occurred within ken of the average American writer and editor, and indignation ran high, therefore. It must have seemed to President Wilson that it was going too high, for otherwise there would have been no necessity for his appeal. At the same time notice must be taken of the fact that the appeal for neutrality was to some extent a notice upon the several foreign and unassimilated elements in the United States, who had promptly taken sides in the great issue and fought one another with means both fair and foul. The document shows whom President Wilson had in mind especially — press, pulpit and public meetings. Propaganda for both sides was on and daily gaining greater proportions and new forms, and the government had to do within its powers what it could. A little later Congress augmented these powers by the Joint Resolution of March 4, 1915. There was one thing which diplomatists of the Central Powers were ever prone to overlook, as I had ample opportunity of ascertaining. They l\ad come to look upon the United States as a nation as wholly separatistic as any state in Europe. The fact that historically, intellectually and sentimentally the majority of the people of the United States gravitated toward Great Britain far more than toward Germany was only too often ignored. At that particular time the statesmen of Germany and Austria- Hungary were impelled to see everything in the light of war. Thus it came that the relations between the United States and Great Britain were viewed from the angle of the American Revolution, the War of 1812 and Great Britain's partiality for the Confederation in the Civil War. Against these facts was contrasted the historically friendly attitude of Prussia and Germany generally. The "Orders In Council" Become Supreme Things were to happen soon that opened the eyes of some of these optimists. Governments at war issue, for the benefit of neutrals, lists 88 THE CRAFT SINISTER of contraband, and declare, if that be within their necessity and their sphere of power, the establishing of blockades. The British government was not slow in doing this. The first list of contraband issued is dated August 5, 1914. The selection of articles was, in the main, in harmony with the provisions of the Declaration of London, 1909, that is to say, as Absolute Contraband were designated those things which have spe- cifically a military character, while under Conditional Contraband were listed materials, commodities and necessities of life which the civil popu- lation of a belligerent may need, which are no less needed by its army, however. For the purpose of sparing the reader the trouble of looking up both the Declaration of London, 1909, and the British Oder in Privy Council in question, I will here concisely give a list of these articles : Absolute Contraband were declared : arms of all kinds, ammunition of all kinds, explosives and projectiles included; clothing and equipment of a strictly military character; harness; saddle, draft and pack animals suit- able for use in warfare; camp equipment and its parts; armor plates; warships and their parts; the means of aerial navigation, and machinery and implements used in the manufacture of any of the above materielle. Conditional Contraband were declared : foodstuffs ; forage and grain suitable for feeding animals; clothing and shoes suitable for use in war; gold and silver in coin or bullion and paper money; vehicles of all sorts available for use in war, as well as their component parts; ships of all kinds and floating docks ; railroad material of any sort, telo-electric equip- ment included ; fuel and lubricants ; explosives not especially prepared for use in war; barbed wire and nippers for cutting the same; horseshoes; harness and saddlery ; field glasses, chronometers and nautical instruments. Little by little this list was extended. On September 21 copper, lead and magnetic iron ore, rubber and glycerine and hides were added, as were all iron ores in general demand. October 29 the whole list of Absolute Contraband was revised and extended so that it included everything used by armies in modern times. The list of Conditional Contraband remained virtually what it had been before. These measures were still within the frame of the provisions of the Declaration of London, 1909, but a sweeping change was made on the same date in what had been the attitude in the past of the British govern- ment as a signatory of the London Declaration. By giving the text of the Order in Privy Council verbatim I can make that clear enough : "1. During the present hostilities the provision of the Con- vention known as the Declaration of London shall, subject to the exclusion of the lists of contraband and non-contraband, and to the modifications hereinafter set out, be adopted and put in force THE "ORDERS IN COUNCIL'^ BECOME SUPREME 89 by His Majesty's Government. The modifications are as follows : "(i) A neutral vessel, with papers indicating a neutral desig- nation, which, notwithstanding the destination shown on the pa- pers, proceeds to an enemy port, shall be liable to capture and condemnation if she is encountered before the end of her next voyage. "(ii) The destination referred to in Article 33 of the said Declaration shall (in addition to the presumptions laid down in Article 34) be presumed to exist if the goods are consigned to or for an agent of the enemy state. "(iii) Notwithstanding the provision of Article 35 of the said Declaration, conditional contraband shall be liable to capture on board a vessel bound for a neutral port if the goods are con- signed "to order," or if the ship's papers do not show who is the consignee of the goods, or if they show a consignee of the goods in territory belonging to or occupied by the enemy. "(iv) In the cases covered by the preceding paragraph (iii) it shall lie upon the owners of the goods to prove that their des- tination was innocent. "2. Where it is shown to the satisfaction of one of His Majesty's principal Secretaries of State that the enemy govern- ment is drawing supplies for its armed forces from or through a neutral country, he may direct that in respect of ships bound for a port in that country, Article 35, of the said Declaration, shall not apply. Such direction shall be notified in the London "Ga- zette" and shall operate until the same is withdrawn. So long as such direction is in force a vessel which is carrying conditional contraband to a port in that country shall not be immune from capture. "3. The Order in Council of the 20th August, 1914, direct- ing the adoption and enforcement during the present hostilities of the Convention known as the Declaration of London, subject to the additions and modifications therein specified, is hereby repealed. "4. This Order may be cited as "The Declaration of London Order in Council, No. 2, 1914." Article 35 of the Declaration of London is now cited here to show what the modification was: '^Conditional contraband is not liable to capture, except when found on board a vessel bound for territory belonging to or occupied by the enemy, or for the armed forces of the enemy, and when it is not to be discharged in an intervening port. "The ship's papers are conclusive proof as to the voyage on which the vessel is engaged and as to the port of discharge of the goods, unless she is found clearly out of the course indicated by her papers, and unable to give adequate reasons to justify such deviation." Since it was Article 36 of the Declaration which ultimately played 90 THE CRAFT SINISTER so great a role in the blockade measures of the British government, I will give that also in this place : ''Notwithstanding the provisions of Article 35, conditional contraband, if shown to have the destination referred to in Article 33, is liable to capture in cases where the enemy has no seaboard." Article 33 of the Declaration provides that "conditional contraband is liable to capture if it is shown to be destined for the use of the armed forces or of a government department of the enemy State, unless in this latter case the circumstances show that the goods cannot in fact be used for the purposes of the war in progress. This latter exception does not apply to a consignment coming under Article 24 (4), to wit: "Gold and silver in coin or bullion; paper money." International Law Goes Into Discard The principal difference between Absolute Contraband and Condi- tional Contraband as drawn by the Declaration of London, 1909, is that the articles constituting the first are liable to capture if it is shown that they are destined to territory belonging to or occupied by the enemy, or the armed forces of the enemy, and that it is immaterial whether the carriage of the goods is direct or entails a transshipment or a subsequent transport by land, while the items of Conditional Contraband were to be treated as stated in Article 35. It is very plain, therefore, firstly : That the Declara- tion of London, 1909, did not intend that the civil population of a State at war should be starved, along with the armed forces — quite an impos- sible undertaking, of course, and, secondly: That the British government, by its Order in Privy Council, of September 21, violated the said declara- tion by setting aside what indeed was a provision hard to meet, Article 35, and substituting therefor a decision of its own, the Order in Privy Coun- cil in question, without consulting first the other signatories of the Decla- ration of London. The fact of the matter is that the British government simply repealed its Order in Privy Council, of August 20, which was sweeping enough, but which still directed "the adoption and enforcement during the present hostilities of the Convention known as the Declaration of London." To repeal that "adoption and enforcement ... of the Convention known as the Declaration of London" was to say, in other words, that the Convention would not be lived up to by the British gov- ernment, that it was considered obsolete by Great Britain, France and Russia, who were making common cause in this as in other respects. To set aside in such a manner a convention which represented the last word on contraband and blockade by the powers, and, to some extent, world public opinion, was an act which the British government and its INTERNATIONAL LAW GOES INTO DISCARD 91 allies must have given considerable thought. It must be considered here that the Declaration of London, though made by a conference that had come together at the invitation of the British government, was an agree- ment, in the nature of a general treaty, by the following signatory powers : United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Spain, Holland and Japan. The Convention was never formally ratified, but its authority was established by a preliminary provision which stated solemnly that the principles enunciated were those constituting the sub- stance of International Law. Its authority, further, was recognized by the British government in "directing its adoption and enforcement during the present hostilities," by the French government by stating that "the declaration signed in London the 26 February, 1909, concerning the law of naval warfare, shall be applied during the present war," and by the Russian government by proclaiming the enforcement by its navy and marine department, together with an imperial edict, "the rules on naval warfare worked out by the London Maritime Conference of 1908-9" — the Declaration, in other words. The German government, on September 4, acquainted the government of the United States, through the American ambassador at Berlin, that it intended applying the provisions of the Declaration of London provided "they are not disregarded by other belligerents," and the Austro-Hungarian government committed itself in much the same terms. Though not a signatory to the Declaration, the Ottoman government also declared its readiness to be guided by the agreement, doing that at a time when the British government had already substituted for the Declaration of London, 1909, the thing labelled by it "The Declaration of London Order in Council, No. 2, 1914," whatever the import of this melee of terms was to be. Surely, an Order in Privy Council had nothing to do with the Declaration of London, when the provisions of the convention were being relegated into the background by three belligerents, when two other belligerents were adopting retaliatory paper measures in return for this, and when three signa- tory neutrals, not to mention the rest of the neutral world that was not a sig- natory but an adherent for all that, were not to be heard from. In effect, "The Declaration of London Order in Privy Council, No. 2, 1914," was an abrogation in toto of International Law. It was the application of might in the place of what had hitherto been regarded right. But this substituting of British Municipal Law for International Law was not entirely without warrant, under the circumstances. There was the question of : When does food become in effect Absolute Contraband instead of Conditional Contraband ? Food was regarded Conditional Con- traband by the Declaration, but there was the insuperable difficulty — in that light, at least, the thing was viewed — of telling what amount of the 92 THE CRAFT SINISTER food imported by a belligerent goes to the civil population and what to the anny. The I/)ndon Convention did not intend to starve the popula- tion of belligerents; it did intend to have the scarcity of food become a problem of the military. The reduction by starvation of besieged garri- sons had long been recognized as a legitimate means of warfare, though little honor to the victor had ever come of its application. But to keep the food of a belligerent civil population from its army is not so easily accomplished. So long as the civil population has something to eat, so long will the army have more than its share of it. Such an army, more- over, is entitled to at least the food produced in its own country, to meet the argument of the moralist d outrance, and Germany, for instance, could not have been starved into submission, as later she was, if her army had subsisted on the food grown in the country and the civil population on the import of food which Great Britain and her allies would have per- mitted. When Diplomacy Shirks Problems On that point there can be no difference of opinion. The point that must strike the observer as odd, to say the least, is that the participants of the London Convention did not see this difficulty in the proper light or deal with it honestly, and therefore failed to come to an agreement on it. If, on the other hand, they did see the point, what was the use in the Declaration of Articles 33, 34 and 35 ? Were they not expedients to get away from an impossible situation — mere subterfuges that left things as they had been before? The fact is that the confer enciers knew only too well that to put food definitely and permanently on the list of non-contra- band would be futile, so long as food or the lack of it is so great a con- sideration in war — the very thing, in fact for which most wars have been waged. The men who labored in the conference knew well enough that placing food on the "free goods" list would have been considered anarchical by most of the governments represented. Great Britain, for one, would have never consented to this, neither would France and Russia. The pro- gram of the delegates from the United States was not far from this happy solution of the problem of contraband and food. Ultimately the thing known as "The Declaration of London Order in Council, No. 2, 1914," was carried even far enough to exclude not only food in any quantity from the civil population of a belligerent govern- ment, but even the export to neutral civil populations was limited far below their actual needs, a vicious policy which found in the govern- ments of France, Russia, Italy and the United States a little too much support as to permit the future historian to say aught in commendation. WHEOSF DIPLOMACY SHIRKS PROBLEMS 93 Naturally, it was not always thus. As late as October 21, 1915, the government of the United States transmitted to the British government a sort of general protest against the violations of the Declaration of London. That document says, among other things : **I believe it has been conclusively shown (in the text of the note) that the methods sought to be employed by Great Britain to obtain and use evidence of enemy destination of cargoes bound for neutral ports and to impose, a contraband character upon such cargoes are without justification; that the blockade, upon which such methods are partly founded, is ineffective, illegal and inde- fensible; that the judicial procedure offered as a means of repara- tion for an international injury is inherently defective for the purpose, and that in many cases jurisdiction is asserted in violation of the law of nations." The note goes on to say that "the United States, therefore, cannot submit to the curtailment of its neutral rights by these measures, which are admittedly retaliatory, and therefore illegal, in conception and in nature, and intended to punish the enemies of Great Britain for alleged illegalities on their part. The United States might not be in a position to object to them, "continues the document," if its interests and the interests of all neutrals were unaffected by them, but, being affected, it cannot with complacence suffer further subordination of its rights and interests to the plea that the exceptional geographic position of the enemies of Great Britain require or justify oppressive and illegal practices." I beg to draw attention to the fact that Mr. Lansing objects specifically to practices which the British government had applied illegally, by reason of geographic disadvantages of the enemy, against Germany and Austria- Hungary. He states that he might not be in a "position to object to them" if the interests of the United States and all other neutrals were not affected by them. May I request the reader to keep that in mind particularly, since this proposition comes into the foreground again and again? The Position of Neutral Holland The neutral who was to feel the heavy hand of Great Britain first was the Netherlands. Against the Netherlands, in fact, was primarily directed the notorious "The Declaration of London Order in Council, No. 2, 1914." The territory of that people is contiguous to Germany, and in the past there had been an active exchange of commodities between the two. The Dutch government, as a neutral, had no reason to apply against Germany a sort of retaliatory export prohibition, though so far as its own needs went, it could, as it did, limit the exportation of goods to Germany. But a great deal of food was still bought in Holland by the 94 THE CRAFT SINISTER Germans, and that, of course, was not a promotion of the British blockade, which already aimed to starve the civil populations of the Central Powers. The Order in Privy Council referred to above was to prevent that, though the order in itself was merely the sanction of a sort of piracy that had l)een going on for weeks in the waters adjacent to the British coast. In September already British cruisers had brought up in the Channel and taken to the Downs ports a number of Dutch freight and passenger ships whose masters had complied with the Order in Privy Council of August 5 — with the Declaration of London, therefore. Though it was plainly a case of a neutral vessel, from a neutral port to a neutral port, with cargo for a neutral consignee, in some instances the Dutch government itself, as in that of several copper shipments, the British government seized whatever part of the shipment it wanted and later bought it. The world was as yet not any too familiar with the reign of terror that was on in the North Sea and the Channel, and general public opinion had to be placated for the time being. All that was to change, however. The Dutch government took the seizure of its copper shipments much to heart. It was grieved that the British government should have arrived at the conclusion that the metal would ultimately find its way into Germany. The fact is that the copper was needed to supply the mobilized army of Holland with ammunition. Germany's violation of the neutrality of Belgium had left the Dutch people no guarantee that their country might not also be invaded before the war was very much older. Since copper was needed to put Holland in a state of defense, and since the United States was just then the only country where that metal could be found in large quantities in the open market, Holland was obliged to take it through waters in the control of the British cruisers and promptly lost it. Moreover, the danger of invasion of the Netherlands did not come all from the East. A few days before Antwerp was taken by the Germans, October 9, and again later, the governments in London, Paris and Petro- grad had considered the advisability of forcing the Scheldt, so that a large expeditionary force might be brought to the relief of the Belgian city and port. The Dutch government knew of this tentative project and quickly moved its army, which had been stationed for the greater part along the German border, to the points near the mouth of the Scheldt. That served notice on the Entente that Holland meant to defend itself against invasion no matter from what quarter it might come. To the Allied govern- ments this was not the most pleasing of signs just then. In retaliation they limited further the imports of the Dutch. Holland had been perfectly willing to meet the wishes of Great Britain, even at the risk of displeasing the Germans more. There was also an easy business way of meeting the wishes of the British government with- THE POSITION OF NEUTRAL HOLLAND 95 out offering official affront to the government at Berlin. Dutch exports had so far gone to Germany and Great Britain alike, and the government, prudently, had done nothing to divert or direct this traffic. But it was possible to let the Dutch merchants know that it would be best to favor the importers of Great Britain, even if prices were not quite so good. This, then, was done. For a while the greater bulk of Dutch dairy prod- ucts and the like went to England. All would have been well had it not been that the British government put an embargo on coal and left Dutch shipping, the railroads, the factories, and home consumption generally, without that fuel. Coal had to be gotten if not every wheel in Holland was to stop turning, and Germany was willing to furnish it, provided there was an exchange in kind — food. Nolens volens the Dutch government had to enter into such an arrangement. Coal was exchanged for food in precise quantities and the tyranny of the high seas grew. In desperation, the Dutch government surrendered much of its sovereignty and gave its imports from the West and exports toward the East into the control of the Overseas Trust — a corporation called into being for that purpose and standing under the close supervision of the British commerce agency at Rotterdam, presided over by a zealous convert to Britishism, one Sir Francis Oppenheimer, son of a Frankfurt Jew. When the copper shipments were held up, the Dutch government placed itself in communication with the United States government, through its minister at Washington, Chevalier van Rappart, and through Dr. Henry van Dyke, American minister at The Hague. The former did not accomplish much, and the latter, a most radical anti- German, was unwilling to do more than was necessary. The Attitude of an American Diplomatist The copper cases were the newspaper sensation of the day and I had a great deal to do with them, a circumstances which brought me in contact with the Dutch government for the first time. I also ascertained then what the views of Dr. van Dyke were. He was not inclined to at all urge the case of the Dutch. Quite frankly he expressed to me the fear that the copper might go to Germany, despite the protestations of the Dutch government. I took the liberty to disagree with the United States minister and tactfully reminded him that after all it was not his business to occupy himself with the ultimate destination of the copper, so long as the Dutch government was willing to pledge itself that the metal would not go to Germany, which pledge the diplomatist had no reason to doubt. But evi- dently Dr. van Dyke was not familiar with the statement of another 96 THE CRAFT SINISTER Secretary of State, Mr. Thomas Jefferson, who, on September 7, 1793, instructed the United States minister at London, Mr. Pinckney, to inform the British government that : "When two nations go to war, those who choose to live in peace retain their natural right to pursue their agriculture, manu- factures and ordinary vocations, to carry the produce of their industry for exchange with all nations, belligerent or neutral, as usual." The fact is that Dr. van Dyke even then had ceased to be a neutral in regard to Germany, as later he admitted in an interview with a news- paperman. On his arrival in the port of New York, from his post at The Hague, in August, 1917, Dr. van Dyke stated to a reporter that he was glad the United States had entered the European War and put an end to its neutrality. He himself had never been much of a neutral at any time since the outbreak of the War. For a man who had been in the diplomatic service of his country that was not the best sort of an admission to make. Utterances of that quality are likely to shake the faith of foreign governments in all United States diplomatists. What may have been news to a reporter of the New York Times was not news to me any more. I knew only too well that Dr. van Dyke, as the minister of a neutral government, favored the British cause in Holland, as against the cause of American and Dutch interests. He did this because he loathed the Germans — for their acts in Belgium, he used to say to his friends and social acquaintances. The private individual may be permitted to do that; the diplomatist, however, ought to keep such opinions to himself. The minions of Baron von Giskra, Austro- Hungarian minister at The Hague, and those of Herr von Miiller, the German min- ister, had no difficulty ascertaining what Dr. van Dyke said and did. Their reports to their respective governments could not but increase the suspicion already felt in Vienna and Berlin that there was something not altogether in the clear between Washington and London, an impres- sion then entirely due to the discrepancy between expectation and per- formance in regard to the British Orders in Privy Council. Many of the Dutch government officials of lesser importance were decidedly pro-Ger- man and they, too, thought that Dr. van Dyke, as diplomatic representa- tive of a neutral power, was certainly too partial for one of the bel- ligerents. It was unfortunate that Mr. Soren Listoe, the United States consul- general at Rotterdam, also had earned himself the reputation of being ardently pro- British. To what exent this was based on fact I am not able to say. At any rate the Dutch government began to look upon the cases of Dr. van Dyke and Mr. Listoe as telling indications of what THE ATTITUDE OF AN AMERICAN DIPLOMATIST 97 United States neutrality was. The fact that the former was of Dutch descent and the latter a naturalized Dane seemed to complicate matters not a little. The United States government had in the past often sent men to diplomatic stations who were of the same blood as the people with whom they represented the government. That had been done for the purpose of making understanding so much easier. In the case of Dr. van Dyke and Holland that scheme had not worked, it seemed. Mr. Listoe began to be looked upon as a man who had no particular interests in keeping relations between the United States and Holland good. For the purpose of keeping in touch with the developments of the day I had established good relations with a high government official. All I will say of his identity is that he was not Mr. John Loudon, then the minister of foreign aifairs. On the day in question the official was very much under the influence of the dangers that were besetting Holland. There was some talk of an Entente force landing: in Holland, at or near the mouth of the Scheldt River, and the German government had again notified the Dutch government that for more coal from Germany more food would have to be exported. The Dutch were ready to pay good money for the coal of the Germans, but gold was not just then what Germany needed most, although the food shortage in the empire was as yet but the threatening aspect of the near future. On the same day had been received from the Dutch minister at Washington, M. van Rappart, a communication placing the status of Dutch shipping in no better a light than it had been in the past. There had been some exchange of views between the several neutral chancelleries of Europe as to the feasibility of establishing a sort of "League of Neutrals," with a view of combating the highhanded methods of the British blockade. Chevalier van Rappart had been asked to sound the Washington government as to its own position. But his reply, which had come in in the morning, had not been encouraging. The Dutch govern- ment was beginning to see how slim were the chances of forming a League of Neutrals under leadership of President Wilson. The official was very pessimistic. I could not see it just that way at the time, but must say that every one of his predictions came true shortly afterward. He was inclined to criticize Mr. Wilson. To that I put the question, what he expected the United States government to do ? "There is nothing to be done except serve notice on the British govern- ment that it must observe International Law, and, above all, the Declara- tion of London," replied the official. That was well enough, but who was to serve that notice? A League of Neutrals might do it, thought the minister. But no League of Neu- trals, more than a name, was possible except the United States government 98 THE CRAFT SINISTER joined and headed it. Meanwhile President Wilson and Secretary of State Bryan seemed to be floundering about in a most erratic manner, he thought. Their moves were uncertain, and would remain that so long as there was no return on their part to the provisions of the Declaration of London — so long as they permitted themselves and the world to be run by "Order in Privy Council." It seemed to him that President Wilson was vacillating between duty and sentiment. When I asked the official whether that implied that Mr. Wilson was considered pro-English rather than neutral I was given the answer that such, indeed, seemed to be the case. I cited the neutrality proclamation of the president in reply, but was answered with a rather cynical smile. That had been done before, said the minister. And since the pronuncia- mento there had been ample time to change one's mind. The fact that Mr. Wilson had supinely accepted the edicts of the British government and had for them abandoned the Declaration of London spoke louder than words. The convention in question served no purpose if the most powerful of the neutrals, party to it, did not insist that it be accepted by Great Britain and her allies as binding without modification of any sort. The elimination of whole articles from the agreement, and the impairment thereby, of virtually every other proviso in the Declaration, was some- thing which so powerful an institution as the United States government would not have permitted had it been truly neutral. In proof of his contention the official brought out a textbook on International Law and drew my attention to a note sent by Mr. Thomas Jefferson to the British government on September 7, 1793, at the time of the war between Great Britain and France. As is well known, this was to be the view, in a general manner, of the German government, which as yet busied itself more with retaliatory, but absolutely futile, anti-blockade measures against the Entente govern- ments. To a very large degree this opinion by at least one prominent member of the Dutch government was due to the tactless conduct of Dr. van Dyke. That diplomatist had the most peculiar manner of doing things. I will give here an instance that is typical. Views of an Irate Diplomatic Censor Calling at the United States legation about noon, on October 8th, I found Dr. van Dyke in a fine state of agitation. Mr. Marshall Langhorne, first secretary of the post, a very quiet man with a fine sense of propor- tions and commendable appreciation of his duties, had told me that the minister wanted to see me on something very important. When I saw the VIEWS OF AN IRATE DIPLOMATIC CENSOR 99 man pacing up and down in front of the fireplace, like a caged and impatient lion, I thought that another calamity had fallen upon mankind. I took a seat and waited until the wrath of the diplomatist should have subsided. After a while it did, and then my attention was drawn by the minister to what seemed to be the remains of burned papers in the grate. This done the diplomatist handed me two sheets of paper with a remark to the effect that their contents were to be a warning to me. I read the letter and notice, for such they were, and then in- formed Dr. van Dyke that his cautioning me was superfluous — ^that I had not attempted, nor would attempt, to be guilty of the crime set forth in the papers in my hand. With that I left, somewhat put out myself. The smaller of the sheets of paper, a carbon copy, said or says: "It must be distinctly understood that the United States of America, a neutral country, will not allow its diplomatic service to be utilized for the transmission of hostile communications or war news. It is for this reason that I give a copy of the following letter to the press. I wish it to be a warning to all persons, of whatever nation, that the United States will resent and punish every attempt to make an improper use of its diplomatic service. Henry van Dyke. The signature is in pencil — bold and flourishing. The larger sheet of paper, also covered with a carbon impression, contains this: American Legation, The Hague, Netherlands, Octobeil 8, 1914. E. F. B., Esq. (original address erased and initials surscribed), c/o American Embassy, London. Sir: Some one has sent from Berlin to this legation in a sealed envelope, addressed to you as above, a number of printed docu- ments and letters, some of them apparently from official German sources, and all of them evidently of a distinctly partisan and belligerent character. I have opened the envelope because it is contrary to the announced rule of this legation (the italics are mine) to forward any sealed envelopes except on official business of the United States. I have destroyed its contents because our neutral government does not intend its diplomatic representatives to be used as for- warders of belligerent propaganda. 100 THE CRAFT SINISTER If you have any idea who the persons in Germany are who have attempted to make use of this legation in this improper way you will do well to warn them not to repeat the offense. I remain, sir, Your obedient servant, Henry van Dyke, American Minister at The Hague. For the purpose of showing how Dr. van Dyke viewed things I must explain that the offending reading matter had gotten into the Berlin-The Hague United States diplomatic mail pouch with the consent of the United States embassy at Berlin, and that I ascertained that neither the newspaper copy nor the printed matter was in any way incen- diary. Some American newspaper correspondent in Germany was bent upon getting something past the British censors — that was all. I may say here that American newspapers and news services sent correspondents abroad not for the purpose of counting their ten fingers but to get news of the Great War and its associated aspects. That Dr. van Dyke had the right to open sealed envelopes from Berlin was a little later seriously questioned by Mr. James W. Gerard, the United States ambassador at that point. Nor does it appear that the zealous minister at The Hague had been appointed by Mr. Bryan to be censor of the United States diplomatic mail. If Dr. van Dyke thought that the law had been violated it was plainly his duty, as an officer of the government, to preserve the records in the case, instead of feeding his fireplace with them. Last but not least, and that was the part which Dutchmen find the most delicious, Dr. van Dyke had no authority to threaten "persons, of whatever nation," with the resentment and punishment the United States might mete out, seeing that diplomatic mail constitutes a privilege and not a right. The "announced rule of this legation" was an order of the State Department made much later. The Censor Assists Entente Diplomacy In itself the incident is not important. I have cited it here as an index to the mental qualities of the United States minister at The Hague. It also leads up to the question of censorship and the absolute control by the British government of the means of getting news to the United States. At the time of which I speak the British censors held up all matter that did not please and often added and interpolated, and a few months later even the mails were no longer secure. Still later, both cable and mail were virtually closed to the American newspaper correspondents in the Central States. The censorship of the British went into effect a day or two aftei war had been declared. For a week or so it was still possible to get THE CENSOR ASSISTS ENTENTE DIPLOMACY 101 "neutral" newspaper dispatches to the United States; after that it was entirely a matter of hazard, or one of writing from the British point of view. At first British censorship was to be a matter of strictly military precaution. That, of course, could only be applied to outgoing news- paper dispatches, eastward bound. Dispatches intended for the United States may have needed some scrutiny, but with Great Britain in absolute control of the cables that was no reason why thousands upon thousands of newspaper dispatches should have gone into the wastepaper baskets of the British censorship, next to the French, the most absolute I have encountered. The fact is that the British government suppressed nearly all news from Central Europe for the purpose of influencing American public opinion. It is hard, nowadays, to draw a distinct line of demarkation between matter of military import and matter that is not. I have here not the space to go into this very interesting subject, suffice the statement that alniost anything can be given the name of military "information" if one sets out to do that. Political news, especially, is easily "military," par- ticularly when it may be flavored with the condiments of propaganda. Perhaps the most noxious sort of newspaper copy read by the censor is the sort which is likely to put the claims and motives of his own government in a bad light. 'Mr. Melville E. Stone, general manager of the Associated Press of America, with which service I was connected at the time, was very much interested in the early "atrocity" stories of the War. These lurid tales had it that the most shocking crimes were being committed throughout Central Europe and that Americans, together with English men and women, were being treated outrageously. In a few cases Americans had been mistaken for Englishmen and had been arrested. Appeal to the American consulates had righted that. I said as much in my dispatches, but seemed unable to still the demands of New York for more "refugee" stories. Letters from the London office of the service complained of the very strict censorship the British had established, and gradually it dawned upon me that London had made up its mind not to permit copy "favorable" to Germany to reach the United States. The word favorable meant in this instance news of a sort which would not be welcome in Great Britain. As an example, I may cite a long dispatch of mine which dealt with the arrival in Holland of the third American "refugee" train. The dispatch contained over two thousand words. It was headed by a general statement, then came several short interviews with the more prominent Americans, among them Henry George, Jr., and finally the list of the 102 THE CRAFT SINISTER "refugees." The purpose of the story was no other than to still the fears of those Americans who had relatives and friends travelling in Germany and Austria-Hungary. Inquiry I had made showed that there were still about ten thousand American citizens "summering" in Central Europe. To ease the anxiety of at least that number of American families seemed very necessary to the service and myself — not to the British censors. The dispatch was suppressed by the British censors. A good picture of the censorship conditions already prevailing will be gained from the following excerpts from the correspondence I had with several Associated Press bureaus: Septembers, 1914: "From comparison of your mail copies with your recent mes- sages it appears that the censor has been letting almost all of your matter through. I do not see that statements from Germany which mention the location of French and German troops can be objec- tionable, because they do not give information to the Germans but just the opposite. R. M. Collins." Mr. Collins was the chief of the London Bureau of the Associated Press. His reference to the "statements from Germany" was made in reply to a question of mine concerning an order issued by the British cen- sorship authorities concerning military information. The wording of that order was so ambiguous that I could not understand it and asked Mr. Collins for advice. On the 16th of the same month the British had already in force a search of the mails. From the London office I received the following: "Let me remind you that all mail matter which you are for- warding to us is now being opened by the censor and we have no way of knowing what he takes out. "Let me also remind you to preface every one of Conger's dispatches with the word Conger and do not preface a dispatch with "Berlin," which is like waving a red flag in the face of a bull. Frederick Roy Martin." British censorship had progressed considerably. The "mail copies" to which Mr. Collins referred and the "mail matter" mentioned by Mr. Martin was carbon copies of the cables I had sent. The messages were numbered and that number showed on the carbon copy, of course. In addition to the serial number the messages also carried a statement of the number of words filed, so that the London office was able to keep tally on the amount of copy suppressed by the British censors and the amount added for propaganda purposes by the same authorities. It was the season of the "atrocity" yarn. My experience was that such tales were very much exaggerated, to say the least. But so many THE CENSOR ASSISTS ENTENTE DIPLOMACY 103 of these stories were making the rounds in the press that I deemed it necessary to draw the attention of the Chief of the News Department of the Associated Press to the case. A letter from him, dated September 19th, contains the following: "As you know, our Mr. Roger Lewis, John T. McCutcheon, Irwin Cobb, James O'Donnell Bennett and Harry Hanson, all well-known American newspaper men, went through behind the German army and were taken prisoners and sent to Aix-la-Cha- pelle under detention. The men followed the army from Brussels clean through on the main line of action through Belgium. Every one of them has written detailed mail stories giving the results of their observations and saying that, although they made the most careful investigation, they were unable to find a single case of wilful atrocity on the part of the German soldiery. Mind you, these stories were written by these men after they were out of the country and under no duress in any way. Therefore, I think it would be wise not to discuss atrocities, because you cannot do so from first-hand knowledge but can only give ex parte accounts of such incidents. ... ''The censorship in England is very strict and very severe. London writes us that much of your stuff is so mutilated by the censors that when it reaches them it is not intelligible. Charles E. Kloeber." Mr. Kloeber thought it necessary to write me another letter on the same day: "In view of the fact that your stuff is so censored by the time it reaches London and so few of your dispatches seemingly are allowed to go through, I suggest that you write a connected resume of the week's news that you have filed, supplemented with other matter that occurs to you, and let us have it by each steamer that comes direct to America. Charles E. Klo^bEr." Preparing American Public Opinion The following excerpts from a letter written to me by Mr. Stone throws a strong light on the news situation and censorship of those days. September 21, 1914. "I enclose herewith clippings from the New York papers, which you might transmit to Conger, so that he can see that both by wireless and by Rotterdam, as well as via Copenhagen, we have been getting a pretty fair report. . . . The Berlin report seems to me to be rather dry and, of course, necessarily meagre. . . . Also you might give us something of the same sort in Southern Holland. The people of the United States are almost weary of the daily see-saw of the armies. They are impatient for some 104 THE CRAFT SINISTER definite victory, which, of course, they cannot have at the instant, and, as a substitute, picture stories of a moderate sort — not trivial stories — would be of value. "Again, it would be well to ask Conger if he could confer with the German authorities and see if there would be any possi- bility of an Associated Press correspondent or two going with the German army. Advise him that the British and French have absolutely refused to allow any American correspondents with their armies and I should think, under the circumstances, the Germans might be willing to do it, and the reports from these cor- respondents might come out either by wireless or through you. Of course, they would have to be handled carefully in order to pass the British censorship, which surpasses anything I have ever known for stupidity. MelvilliS E. Stone." In explanation of Mr. Stone's reference to a "fair report" I may say that the report seemed even fair after the British censors had suppressed virtually two-thirds of all matter relayed by me or written by me. With the wireless the British could not interfere, and that helped greatly to make the report of the Associated Press as good as it was. On October 5, 1914, Mr. Stone wrote me another letter on this subject. It said in part: "The situation in London is extraordinary and has been very trying, but I am glad to say that I think I see distinct marks of improvement. Melvillk E. Stone." Meanwhile, the London Bureau of the Associated Press was better acquainted with the situation, as is shown in a letter dated September 21st: "It is now apparent that a very large part of your work is going to waste, at least so far as the cable is concerned. For example, your telegram No. 134 was all killed, 135 was nearly all killed, 136 all killed, 138 came through in full, 139 and 140 were all killed, 142, 143, 144, 145 and 146 came through in full, 147, 148 and 152 were all killed. Frederick Roy Martin." The fate of dispatches Nos. 137, 141, 149, 150 and 151 could not be ascertained, it seems, because the censors in London had also taken the carbon copies of them from the mail. The case deserves a few words of explanation. The dispatches involved were numbered 134 to 152, inclusive. That meant 19 separate messages. Of this number were passed by the British censors, 7; mutilated, 1; wholly suppressed, 11. The British mail censors, however, had found only 5 objectionable, because the carbon copies of the other 14 had been permitted to reach the London office of the service. Mr. Martin doubted that his letter would reach me if he did not explain what the numbers meant. To the typewritten letter he added as postscript the following remark in handwriting : PREPARING AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION 105 "To mail censors : The figures in above are not code but num- bers of dispatches. The only object of this letter is to save the Associated Press hundreds of pounds now being paid for cable dispatches that are not delivered." This letter advised me to reduce cabling to a minimum and make a more general use of the mails. This I did, of course. And after that the American public received comparatively little news from Central Europe, since I was then handling out of The Hague, to which point I had transferred the bureau, virtually every dispatch of the Associated Press correspondents in Central Europe, in addition to the news matter I gathered myself. I must state here further that the Berlin dispatches of the Asso- ciated Press were written for the greater part by two men who were distinctly hostile to the Germans, a fact referred to by Mr. Stone in his remark that the BerHn report was "dry." The New York office, however, anxious to present both sides, con- tinued to bombard me with demands for copy by cable. Since I knew that to cable via London, as I was obliged to do, since there was no other line open, was futile, I wrote on October 3rd the following to the Chief of the News Division: "However, the only thing to do is to carry on this most un- satisfactory sort of labor. Meanwhile, I may not have to tell you that the English censor is not concerned with suppressing military news as much as news favorable to Germany — which, of course, is the same thing in the end. I suspect strongly that some nine interviews I secured from Americans returning from various parts of Germany on August 19 never reached the London office even, though the term 'mobilization' was the only military word used in them. At any rate, I saw in one of the American newspapers the bare announcement that a special train from Berlin had arrived in Rotterdam with some 300 refugees aboard. After that I feared the worst, of course, and a few days later Mr. Patterson, of the Chicago Tribune, told me that he had good reason to believe that the English censors went as far as to interpolate their own views into copy." The Case of CardinsJ Mercier Before dismissing the subject of censorship, for the time being, I must give here a copy of a letter I addressed to Mr. Martin, the assistant general manager of the Associated Press, in connection with the famous Cardinal Mercier incident.* My original message, saying that Cardinal Mercier was virtually a prisoner of the Germans, went through. Mean- • Cardinal Mercier has since then been quoted as saying that I had "saved his life," which is not in accord with the facts since his life was at no time in jeopardy. 106 THE CRAFT SINISTER while, British correspondents in The Hague and Rotterdam had given their imagination full play, despite the fact that they had no other authority than what I had, to wit : "De Tijd," a Dutch Catholic newspaper. Since the stories then published proved one of the first great political sensations of the War, but were devoid of all fact, I will here give the letter in full. "In view of the fact that I am leaving tomorrow (for Berlin) I thought it best to acquaint you with the steps I took in the Cardinal Mercier matter. I am induced to do this, first, because I do not think the incident closed ; secondly, because I want both you and Mr. Berry (my successor at The Hague) to be thoroughly familiar with the affair. With this in view I have asked Mr. Berry to read the letter and then mail it to you. "The various exhibits named in the letter are here enclosed. "In my telegram No. 629 (see date on copy) the story was first told as it appeared in the Amsterdam *Tijd' of that day — certain non-essentials omitted, of course. On the following day, in telegram No. 634, I added a few other details, also from the *Tijd' — Dutch papers generally having paid little attention to the *Tijd' story of the day before. "As shown in Tel. No. 637, I received the German official dementi about 10 a. m. on the 7th, obtaining the same at the The Hague German legation, where I called for the purpose of getting some data on the matter or an explanation. At the legation the story, as told, was characterized as absurd. I sent the dementi as received here direct from Brussels. "On the same day I received your cable No. 1, and following this sent to Mr. Conger Tel. No. 638. In reply to the latter I received from Mr. Conger Tel. No. 2, and then sent Tel. No. 639. "At 5.36 p. m. that day I received your cable No. 3. I immediately called at the German legation with the request that I should be given the papers necessary to enable me to leave for Belgium that night, by automobile, if possible. I was told that this was out of the question, for the reason that the legation did not have the authority to issue any such papers. I made inquiry as to what other way was open, and was told that there was none. The legation regretted very much that nothing could be done in the matter, and I have good reason to believe that they really tried very hard to solve the problem. "T returned to the hotel and wrote Tel. No. 641, which I routed via the Platzkommando at Aix-la-Chapelle, acquainting you of what I had done by means of Tel. No. 642, sending at the same time Tel. 643 to Conger. A little before that I had sent Tel. No. 4 a4b to the London office. Later in the evening I followed this up with Tel. 644. "At about 7 p. m. on the 9th I was called up by the German legation. I was told a reply from General von Bissing had been received there. The message was read to me over the telephone. Tel. No. 647 was the result of this. Later in the evening: I received from Mr. Conger Tel. No. 5, telling me that Mr. THE CASE OF CARDINAL MERCIER 107 Bouton had been dispatched to Belgium. On the following day I received from Mr. Conger Tel. No. 6, of which my Tel. No. 652 is in the main a translation. "So far Cardinal Mercier has not replied to my telegram." The above was written on January 11, 1915. Of the several tele- grams mentioned in it only two reached the London office of the Associated Press. According to the "Tijd," Cardinal Mercier was a prisoner and had been given very severe treatment. That story I had forwarded with due credit. The German official dementi denied almost in toto the charges that had been made and which I had repeated with mention of my authority, the "Tijd," while the telegram from General von Bissing reiterated the substance of the dementi. The fact of the matter was that Cardinal Mercier had urged a part of the Belgian population to resist the Germans in every way possible. What he probably meant is that the Belgians were to engage in passive resistance. From the point of view of the patriot the cardinal can hardly be blamed for that. The truth is that under the conditions prevailing in Belgium his policy was open to criticism. The country had by that time been occupied by Germans, who were meeting the slightest outbreak of franctireur activity with all the ruthlessness the militarist anywhere is capable of. The Belgian army had been unable to hold back the Germans. Cardinal Mer- cier was guilty of a grave error, to say the least, in calling upon his hapless people to resist the Germans, since by doing that he was placing in jeopardy lives without affecting in any manner the situation as it was. Since the Germans did not want to have more trouble on their hands, Cardinal Mercier was placed under surveillance, but not in any manner abused or mistreated, as he has since then reluctantly admitted. 'My telegrams would have acquainted the world with the actual state of affairs. But that is exactly what the British censors wished to pre- vent. How admirably they succeeded is one of the major political facts of the War.* Voice of Press Is Voice of People It is rather surprising that the United States government never interested itself in the subject of British censorship. Now and then the State Department would take in hand a particularly atrocious case in which some large firm had lost money through interference with its cable- grams by the British government. It does not seem as if anybody in Washington paid the slightest attention to the one-sidedness of the news See "SocUtS Anonyme" in Appendix. 108 THE CRAFT SINISTER which resuhed from the suppression of nearly three-quarters of the dis- patches written by American correspondents in Central Europe. Had it not been for the wireless of the Germans the American public would have heard even less of the "other" side. It heard almost next to nothing as it was. The German censorship usually saw to it that no really "disagreeable" dispatch or mail story got through without pruning by blue pencil and scissors. The dispatch, as it reached London, was bound to appear to the British censors a rather partial account, and so it went into the limbo. To make a long story short: What appeared good to the Germans seemed bad to the British. Between the two the American newspaperman had a hard time of it. Since governments, statesmen and diplomatists are rather fond of the press in times of war, so long as it is amenable, and since the press has only too often demonstrated that it can make war at will, it would not be so bad an idea if this subject of censorship was attended to a little better by parliaments. Nations, moreover, owe it to themselves to keep their news channels open and the water in them unmuddied. It is all very well to be in a forgiving mood when a war is won, as I have been able to abserve in this instance on the part of the American public. But there is the possibility that the martial adventures of the future may not always end so advantageously. The negligence displayed in having the news channels of the American public wide open to foreign interference, of a physical and moral character, may cost dearly some other time. If public opinion is really and truly behind all wars, as one must doubt, then public opinion, to be intelligent, must needs be formed of the balance struck between the accounts from both sides — ^two belligerents, when war is on. A public opinion resting upon one-sidedness is no public opinion at all. It is partisanship of the most noxious character because the sentiment thus formed has not even the advantage of being purely selfish — ^the only redeeming quality that may be associated with frenzy for war. With the phase of initiatives of the Great War over, the acts of the United States depended entirely upon the American diplomatist and the American press. The answer to the question which many Central Power statesmen were to ask soon: What will America do? was given by the diplomatists and journalists of the United States. The American public may be permitted to flatter itself that it decided the question of war or peace. Ultimately it did what Mr. Wilson, the politicians, diplomatic envoys and editors thought best — mass psychology attended to that. Fully another two years passed before the answer was given. It took that long to prepare public opinion in the United States and find VOICE OE PRESS is voice; OE PEIOPLE i09 the auspicious moment for entry into the War. The phase of expansion of the Great Calamity was well over, and the phase of attrition had set in with unprecedented savagery, when Mr. Wilson finally found the long- sought opportunity to associate himself with the Entente group so that the Central Powers could be brought to their knees.* * The following interesting dialogue occurred between a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and President Wilson: Senator McCumbER: "Would our convictions of the unrighteousness of the German war have brought us into this war if Germany had not committed any acts against us without this League of Nations, as we had no league of nations at that time?" President Wilson: "I hope it would eventually. Senator, as things developed!" Senator McCumber: "Do you think that if Germany ha!d committed no act of war against our citizens that we would have got into this war?" President Wilson: "I do think so!" The above is, of course, a complete refutation of what has been advanced as the cause of war by the administration. We deal, then, with a mere pretext, and not at all with a cause. In the light of this admission by the nation's Chief Executive, we must look for the actual cause elsewhere. Since it would be unfair to assume that any particular thing was the cause, we must of necessity wait for an explanation. Just two things stand out at present. One of them is that even a League of Nations, and, I presume membership therein for Germany, would not have eventually kept the United States out of the war. The second is that the most rigorous regard for citizens of the United States by Germany would not have "kept us out of the War," despite the promises made before and during the election of 1916. Indeed, such a regard for citizens of the United States by the German government would have amounted to little in the end. The later notes diplomatiques of the State Department were hair-trigger affairs of the most dangerous sort, especially the famous "Sussex" note. That note placed a premium on trouble. Let us assume that a ship with Americans aboard had been sunk by a mine! Let us assume, further, that a government, face to face with defeat, had instructed one of its own submarines to torpedo such a ship! Would the Department of State, and the world, have believed the protestations of the German government that it was not one of its submarines that sank the vessel — that it was a floating mine, or that it was, possibly, the submarine torpedo of a government acting as its own agent provocateur? Moreover, let us assume that just about that time one or several German submarines would not have been heard from again, as was often the case! Would the German government have been able to defend itelf, since now and then the commanders of submarines did make mistakes or became too zealous entirely? Hardly! The hair-trigger situation created by the notes of the United States government made war with Germany inevitable in the end — extended sub- marine warfare or no. To say the very least, participation in the Great War by the United States was too inviting, too necessary, too imperative to the Entente governments to weigh at all against the cutting pangs of conscience of a submarine commander forced to torpedo a vessel flying his own flag. S. January 20, 1920. VII DIPLOMACY IN TURKEY THE Ottoman government was the first to join in the European War on the side of the Central Powers. On October 30, 1915, Belgium, France, Great Britain and Russia severed relations yrith Turkey, and, within the next week, the three last of these Powers declared war upon her, being joined by Serbia on December 2nd. Before these steps were taken, the diplomatic representatives of the Entente group had done their best to persuade the Ottoman government to the view that the guarantee on the part of the Entente group, for the inviolability of Ottoman territory for the space of thirty years, would be better than risking another war. There were many men in Stamboul who agreed with this. Turkey had not fared well in her recent military enterprises. She had lost the war against Italy. The Balkan allies had shorn her of almost the last of her provinces in the peninsula, and the revolution also had weakened the empire. There was every reason why the Ottoman government should avoid entering the great struggle that was already on. The War was already a fact, no longer an accommodating possibility to the diplomatists. What the constellation of Mars would be was very plain. The first successes of the German army had already been nullified on the Marne, and the Austro-Hungarian forces were falling back rapidly before the onslaught of the great Russian hosts. The Battle of the Masurian Lakes was indeed the only hopeful sign on the horizon. More- over, the British blockade had already shown itself absolute, and Great Britain had not only announced, but was already demonstrating, that she would come to the aid of the Entente with her last man and the last "silver" bullet. Already it was clear that France would put up a most valiant defense. Her army was not as decadent as speculators on her birthrate were prone to believe, and Russia had done rather better than was expected. On the other hand, nearer home, the Rumanians were already shaky in their alliance with Austria-Hungary, the Bulgarians were anything but committed to any given line of action ; that Italy would ultimately join the Triple Entente no sane statesman in Central Europe doubted any longer. Said Halim Pasha, the Ottoman grand vizier, was sure of this, as he told me, when the Italian government refused to live no DIPLOMACY IN TURKEY 111 up to the spirit of the Triple Alliance treaty at the very outbreak of the War. To this list of discouraging factors must be added that the treasury of the Ottoman government was, as ever, nearly empty; that the Ottoman army was poorly armed and managed, the defenses along the Darda- nelles and at the Bosphorus in a poor state, and the fleet entirely negli- gible. Even the Osmanli part of the population was not united, and the Arabs, Greeks and Armenians might strike for independence any day after the Ottoman troops had been called to a front. To join the Central Powers under such handicaps and then risk being cut off from them by the people in the Balkan and by Rumania was rather more than even an Enver Pasha, Germanophile, and a Talaat Bey, a most consistent and and enterprising Talaatophile politician, could risk. That in the end they did run this risk was due to their fear that the hour of the Osmanli was come, no matter what agreements they might make with the Entente group, and that in the possible victory of the Germans lay their only hope. Constantinople has ever been the "empire." It always was and still is the metropolis par excellence. Of the several states of which it has been capital in its history of, roughly, 2,700 years, it was the multum in parvo. It was the glory and strength of the Hellenic colonies in Phrygia Minor, of the Eastern Roman empire, of Byzantium and of the Ottoman state. Founded in or about 660 B. C. by Dorians, the city had grown rapidly into prominence. Her waterways, the Hellespont, Propontis and the Ford of lo, and the seas beyond, the Pontus Euxinos and the wide Mediterranean, were responsible for that. As the means of navigation were improved, and trading by water more and more facilitated, the city on the Golden Horn gained greater importance. Soon she was the mistress of a great domain, and as such she did not often fall under the influence of such men as Themistocles and Alcibiades. Together with Cyzikus, By- zantium refused to be swayed by the quarrels of Athens and Sparta. Having power and interests of their own, these two cities had adopted policies of their own and were little inclined to listen to the ranting of the demagogues in the market places of the capitals of Greece at home. But Byzantion was to fall in the hands of the Romans. In 194 A. D. Septimus Severus blockaded and besieged the city, and two years later took it. He went so far as to give the city another name. But Antonia did not stay long, nor did Roman rule, for that matter. Con- stantin made himself master of the city in 324 and began to build up an empire in which the Greek was once more the chief political factor. On May 11th, 330 A. D., Byzantium became Nova Roma, the new capital of Rome, but to the people the city was and remained Constantinople 112 THE CRAFT SINISTER -city of Constantin. Under Justinian, Constantinople was at the height of her glory. The city was immensely rich and had a population of about 500,000. It was also well fortified. The natural defenses of the site, water at two-thirds of the precinct, were reinforced by a stronger wall, and across the base of the triangle, on land, was erected the strongest wall then known. Europe at that time was being overrun by several barbarous races whom something or other had dislodged from their homes in Asia. Constantinople was the only nut they could not crack. The Dardanelles in Early Diplomacy The Hellespont — Dardanelles — ^had meanwhile been crossed and re- crossed by many of the famous armies of antiquity. The Heptastadion Ferry, as the narrows at the base of Cape Nagara were styled then, oflfered the most feasible, if not a very convenient, passage into Phrygia Minor, Asia Minor and Southwest Asia generally. Among others who passed that way was Xerxes. That this robber baron of a Persian should attempt to take Byzantion was natural. He failed, because a Spartan, Pausanias, of evil reputation but considerable military ability, came to the city's relief. For the first time the Thracian Chersonesus came to be looked upon as the backyard, figuratively, of Byzantion, and on almost the very site on which are now located the forts and redoubts of Bulair a great wall was erected, the Makron Teichos. Perikles was the builder. Some fifty years later Derkyglades either added to the strength of the defenses or rebuilt them. The Heptastadion Ferry continued to attract military adventurers. Alexander passed over it, and so did the Roman leaders. The Makron Teichos was hard to keep up, it seems, and, while the city on the Golden Horn was not taken by every army that passed by, she, nevertheless, suffered great economic losses, and was no longer what she had been. Yet in 1001 she was still of enough importance to give sanction to the coronation of King Stephen of Hungary, whom she sent a crown that was later made into one with a similar insignia furnished by the Pope of Rome. But it seemed that the sun of Byzantium was setting. Emperor Ba- silios succeeded for a while in putting a stop to the progress of the Seljuks, who were rapidly eating up the empire and began to threaten its capital. But he was on the defensive, and, being that, he had to do the best he could with the Italian concessionaires who had gradually infested his domain. Italian traders had the peninsula and city of Gallipoli, the ancient Thracian Chersonesus and Kalliupolis, in their hands and valuable concessions had been surrendered to the Genuese and Venetians, including THE DARDANELLES IN EARLY DIPLOMACY 113 extra-territorial privileges or rights at the very gates of Constantinople, at Pera and Galata, of which the Tower of Galata is still the monument. The Powers of Europe later made what is known as the capitulations of this historic precedent. A period of Neo-Idealism had meanwhile seized hold of thought in Europe. The Holy Sepulchre was to be cleansed of the Saracene, and the Crusades were undertaken for that purpose. Neo-Idealism was as unpractical then as it is now, as the Children's Crusade demonstrates. With the brief attack of religious fervor over, the good knights turned to pillage and conquest en route. Constantinople, being unfortunate to lie in their path, suffered greatly from this. To the Byzantians, the Holy Places in Palestine, being so close at hand, had little attraction. Familiarity with a thing has ever been the best counsel. For holding a reasonable view in this matter, and having still in their possession much that could be looted, the people of the city, just then engaged in one of the many uprisings to which partisanship for Blue and Green led, were be- sieged, overpowered in 1203 and treated with a brutality that has no rival in history. For three days the good Christian knights murdered and pillaged, raped and burned, and, when finally they desisted, it was from sheer exhaustion and satiety. Byzantium was never the same after that. Michael Palaeogos made a desperate attempt to organize his state and city for the coming of the Turk, but did not make much headway. The Crusaders had massacred and pillaged the country side as thoroughly as they had Constantinople. What that meant may be gathered by considering that the population of the capital had been reduced to about 100,000. Meanwhile, the "400 tents" of Osmanli which had been pitched on the outskirts of Dorylaeum in 1074 had grown into a strong population by reproduction and the assimilation of others. In 1354 the Turks crossed the Hellespont at the Heptastadion Ford, overran Thrace, made Adrianople their capital, subjugated the people in the Balkans shortly afterward, and, in 1411, cast their eyes upon Constantinople. Eleven years later they were able to lay the city under tribute and in 1453 they took it, largely through the assistance of military engineers and artillerists who were good Christians, to wit : Frenchmen. Constantin had a force that num- bered but 7,500. He pleaded for help in vain. The succor that could have been brought, at least by the Christian states along the Mediterranean, was not brought, because the political situation in Europe did not permit it and the Byzantians happened to be the hete noire — Huns — of the period. This is the manner in which the Turks got possession of Constanti- nople and her waterways. I have not the room here to trace the further developments along the 114 THE CRAFT SINISTER straits, with the exception of stating that the first of the Osmanli rulers, and their able grand viziers, set about to fortify the entrance to the Dar- danelles and Bosphorus in a maner which even today must excite admira- tion. Grand Vizier Achmed Kopriilii erected the castles at Kum Kale and Sid-il-Bahr, and armed them with the best guns of the times. Thereafter the Dardanelles were closed to all traffic which the government in Stamboul did not favor. Similar fortifications were laid out at the entrance to the Bosphorus, and Russia, into which the republic of Nishni-Novgorod had now grown, or degenerated, as the case may be, was now further re- moved from the substance of her dreams, the Zarigrad on the Golden Horn, than she had ever been before. The fleets she had sent into the Bosphorus in 860 and again in 1048 had been able to sail as far as the Sea of Marmora. Attack from that quarter was now out of the question. Russia tried to get to Constantinople via Baltic, North Sea, Channel, Atlantic, Mediterranean and Aegean. Her fleet managed to get past the Turkish batteries at the entrance to the Dardanelles, in 1770, but lacked enterprise enough to measure issues with Turkish batteries at Tchanak Kale and Kilid-il-Bahr. At the headland of Kefes Burnu it came to and put about. A British fleet, under Admiral Duckworth, was more successful in 1807. It reached Constantinople, but the peace treaty made two years later recognized the Dardanelles, Sea of Marmora and Bosphorus as Otto- man territorial waters. Such being the case no foreign warcraft could hereafter enter the straits without the permission of the Turkish govern- ment, which permission, by the way, depended again upon several of the other signatory Powers. For warships, then, the Dardanelles and Bosphorus were closed. For merchant vessels, of any registry, they re- mained open so long as the Turkish government had no valid reason to close them, which reason again was subject to what the Concert of Europe might have to say. This status of the case was created and ratified, and in some instances modified, by the Hunkiar Iskelessi Treaty of 1833, made between Russia and Turkey; the Dardanelles Treaty of 1841, the Paris Dardanelles Convention of 1856, the London Protocol of 1871 and the Berlin Convention of 1878. It was modified in 1853, at the beginning of the Crimean War, when French and British warcraft, as allies of the Turks against Russia, appeared before Constantinople, and in 1878 when several British ships arrived off the city for the purpose of defending it, if need be, against the Russians. During the late Balkan War the Ottoman government was persuaded to permit each of the Great Powers to station in the Golden Horn a small cruiser, knewn as stationaire, for the pro- tection of the Europeans in the city. That privilege was still given at the outbreak of the European War, nor was it specifically recalled when the Ottoman government abolished the capitulations — concessions of an THE DARDANELLES IN EARLY DIPLOMACY 115 extra-territorial character given governments for the protection of the interests of their nationals, as the claims read. As pointed out, the Byzantian government had seen fit, for very good reasons, to grant the Italians similar concessions centuries before. It did that when it was moving along swiftly on its downward curve. The case of the Turk was the same. So long as the sultans were strong, largely because they had good premiers and ministers, so long were the haughty diplomatic envoys of the European powers obliged to appear before the several Osmanli Majesties in cages. When the Turk was no longer strong and able the process was reversed. Such is the course of human events. Entente Diplomacy When Handicapped On August 9, 1914, a few days after the outbreak of the War, the German dreadnaught cruiser "Goeben'* and the light cruiser "Breslau" sought refuge in the Dardanelles from their British and French pursuers in the Mediterranean. For two days the Ottoman government did not know what to do. To give asylum to the two warships, for longer than the time permitted by international practice, was dangerous. The diplomatists of the Triple Entente would call, as they did, at the Bab-i-Ali, Sublime Porte, and demand an explanation. Grand Vizier Said Halim Pasha, Enver Pasha, the minister of war, and Talaat Bey, minister of the interior and general factotum of the Ottoman government, found themselves in sore predicament. It would not do to offend the governments in London, Petrograd and Paris. On the other hand, the Berlin government could not be affronted. For a day the problem remained unsolved, and then a solution was found by the several heads that were stuck together, to wit : The Otto- man ministers already named, Baron von Wangenheim, the German am- bassador to the Sublime Porte, and the men in Berlin. The solution was that the "Goeben" and "Breslau" should be bought by the Ottoman government. They were bought over the protest of the British, French and Russian ambassadors and governments. The prompt conversion of the ships into "Sultan Jawus Selim,^' for the "Goeben," and "Midillih," for the "Breslau," did not appease the anger of London, Paris and Petrograd. But the Ottoman government had an argument of its own. The United States government had in the preceding month transferred by an act of Congress, dated July 8th, and for a consideration of $12,535,- 276 and 98 cents, a regular bargain figure, to one Fred J. Gauntlett, the United States battleships "Idaho" and "Mississippi." The understanding 116 THE CRAFT SINISTER was, though Mr. Wilson could not himself appear in the transaction as the seller, to transfer these ships to the Greek government, as was done. The two battleships were of a rather obsolete type and fitted no longer into the tactical scheme of the United States navy department. But they were superior to anything the Greeks had, and the Turks also had in their ramshackle navy nothing that came at all close in efficiency to the two craft. The Ottoman government objected to the sale, and the American ambassador at Constantinople, Mr. Henry Morgenthau, Sr., also did not view the transfer of the warships with favor. It was generally known that the Greek government bought the ships to attend at some day not far oflf, under the aegis of another Balkan League, to the case of the Turks for good. Graecia irredenta was to be redeemed. As yet the Turks held several of the Greek islands in the Aegean, and Athens made claims to certain parts along the coast of Asia Minor, notably the district and city of Smyrna and the Cilician Plain, with the towns of Mersina and Tarsus. Graecia irredenta, so hoped the diplomatists of the Balkans, was to be redeemed together with Bulgaria irredenta in Thrace. The Nationalist Party of Bulgaria, headed by M. I. M. Guechoflf, one of the Bulgarian premiers during the late Balkan War, was determined to make good the defeat suffered at the peace conference in Bucharest, 1913, which fastened upon a people as noxious a treaty as was ever signed. To make good that defeat was possible, however, only at the expense of the Turks. The Serbs stood in too high an esteem, if we may call it that, with the Russian government, which just then was Sazonoff from cellar to attic, to figure in the revanche scheme of the Bulgarian Nationalist Party. With the Turk it was diflPerent, of course. He had few friends just then, as the London and Bucharest conferences had demonstrated, and Russia had not changed her plans — was still dreaming the dream of seeing the Ro- manoffs, in temporal and spiritual sublimeness, enthroned in the Zarigrad — the emperor city — on the Golden Horn. How eternally great a man Sazonoff would have been in that case ! The Neo-Idealists of reactionary Russia looked upon the substitution of the Greek Cross for the Crescent on Hagia Sophia mosque as a god- sent duty. Practical men of the Sazonoff type had plans of their own — Russia's hegemony of the world south of the borders of the Russian empire. Control of the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal was to follow and after that it was to be seen whether or no Great Britain could keep her empire in India with the route about the Cape of Good Hope the only one open for her mighty armada. Sazonoff and his ilk were indeed playing the lute of the Triple Entente in the Concert of Europe, but they had not forgotten that the unbelievable, an alliance between demo- ENTENTE DIPLOMACY WHEN HANDICAPPED 117 cratic France and autocratic Russia, had been brought about because of the antipathy of the Russian bear for the British lion. M. Guechoff — I may say en passant that I know him very well — knew all that and more. He was, in addition, a Russophile by conviction — one of those quietly intense natures in whom gratitude and resentment are lasting sensations. He believed implicitly in the cause of the Slav, and the noble equestrian statue of Czar Alexander Oswohoditel, monumented almost before his house in Sofia, was to him rather more than to the men in the Sofia foreign office at that time. Alexander II, Czar Liberator, had shaken the Turk off the Bulgars. M. Guechoff cherished the hope that he would be able to drive the Turk out of Thrace. What he would do with Constantinople, Zarigrad, was not so clear to him. But time brings counsel. A Balkan "Problem" in the Making There was no entente yet between Greek and Bulgar, so far as I know, though a lame sort of alliance between Greece and Serbia a la Italia. But the fact is that the leaders of certain elements in Bulgaria and Greece had decided upon the matter. I discussed the question with several of them, and found that the more conservative and far-sighted thought that while Greece was to have again control of all the Greek islands in the Aegean, and the districts in Asia Minor I have named, Bulgaria might extend her dominion as far as the Tchatdalja line of fortifications. The line Enos- Media had formerly been the peace objective of the Bulgarians. Such a border would join to Bulgaria nearly all of the Bulgarians still under Turkish rule, and would also have the desired military advantages. A part of this territory was ceded by Turkey in August, 1915, as a gage for Bulgaria's entrance in the War on the side of the Central Powers group. But there were also those extremists in Bulgaria who thought that all of Thrace and the Gallipoli peninsula ought to be taken from the Turks, Constantinople included. These men were trying to show the world that this would be the best way of settling the problem of the control of the waterways. With the Bulgarians in possession of the western shores of the Dardanelles, Sea of Marmora and Bosphorus, the Greeks, possibly, re-established in the western part of what had been Phrygia Minor, anciently, and with the Turk limited to Anatolia north of the Gulf of Ismid it would be easy enough to open the Dardanelles to all shipping, war or peace. With three states abutting upon these bodies of water it would be simple to make the straits neutral or international, since each of the governments involved could claim them only as far as their Thalsohle — central channel. To certain Russian statesmen that appealed 118 THE CRAFT SINISTER strongly. Half a loaf was l^etter than none, and there was no telling when trouble among the Balkanites would lead to the "realization" of Russian "desires," The Turks were well acquainted with this scheme, as I found, and could not but discountenance the sale of the two American battleships to the Greeks. They did that, but stopped a little short, so far as I know, of making a protest to the Department of State. The United States ambassador, Mr. Morgenthau, knew too little of the profession upon which he had embarked from a real estate office, and was too timid to understand the full meaning of the transaction, and the government in Washington does not seem to have given the matter much thought, which, in regard to politics in Europe, was living up to its traditions. In those halcyon days, moreover, the Congress of the United States still bickered over millions, being as yet unused to the reckless appropriation of billions, and the twelve million dollars for what would have been scrap iron in a few months looked very good to the watchdogs of the treasury. To the argument of the Ottoman government that the "Goeben" and "Breslau*' had been bought to offset the increase in the naval armament of Greece produced by the "Idaho" and "Mississippi" the diplomatists of the Triple Entente could make no effective rebuttal. There are some facts which even a diplomatist can not deny, although they are few in number, withal. The sale of the two German ships could be attacked from another angle, however. It was not a bona Ude transaction, claimed the British, French and Russian governments and their ambassadors. To this the Ottoman government replied that while the transfer would seem to suffer from this aspect, it was nevertheless bona Ude. Turkey had ordered two modern battleships in Great Britain. That she had not ordered them in Germany was due to the fact that her naval service just then was in the hands of the British Naval Mission to Turkey, headed by Admiral Limpus, just as her army was under the administrative control of the German Military Mission to Turkey, commanded by Field Marshall Liman von Sanders Pasha. The two missions were commis voyageurs in more respects than one, and bought each in their own country what the Turkish national defense scheme needed. The Ottoman government pointed out that the German commander. Admiral Souchon, had sought refuge in the Dardanelles, before an over- whelming force of enemies, and that sending him back into the Mediter- ranean, to either go down in battle or suffer capture, might be construed an unfriendly act on the part of the German government. In fact the only alternative available was internment. The sale of the ships obviated internment. The Ottoman government had the right to buy the ships, A BALKAN PROBLEM IN THE MAKING 119 especially since the Creek government also had bought ships. Would it not be better to consider the incident closed? But that was impossible, of course. Despite the evasion practiced by the Ottoman ministers the sale of the "Goeben" and ''Breslau" could not be dissociated from its sinister aspects. Admiral Souchon, who had come into the Dardanelles as commander of the German Squadron in the Mediterranean, and his officers and men remained on the two ships, though already they were "Sultan Jawus Selim," and "Midillih." To make mat- ters worse the Ottoman government dismissed the British Naval Mission, and on September 27th closed the Dardanelles and Bosphorus. Diplomacy on the Golden Horn was moving rapidly and in a direction opposite to that desired in Ivondon, Paris and Petrograd. The immediate effect of the closing of the Dardanelles was that Russia could not import from Great Britain and France war materials she urgently needed, nor could she exchange therefor the wheat and other foodstuffs wanted in the countries of her allies. That, indeed, was the purpose of the closing. An American Ambassador Is Heard From Though "forcing" the Dardanelles had ever been a favorite phrase of those dissatisfied with the treaties on the status of the straits — tem- porarily, to be sure — the Russian, French and British governments did not immediately speak of that. Sir Louis Mallet, the British ambassador, especially would seem to have taken the closing of the strait to heart. According to statements made by Mr. Morgenthau he appealed to the ambassador of the United States, to whom he suggested, if the report is to be believed, that the two of them call together on the Grand Vizier and enter a protest. At any rate Mr. Morgenthau selected to go alone, and according to his own admission informed the Ottoman premier somewhat as follows: "You know this means war!" I think it is the practice, usually, of ambassadors to first get in touch with their government before they enter climaxic protests, nor do they, except on specific instruction, ever mention war as the only alternative for something which a government has done. If the State Department of the United States should be an exception to this rule, which I can not believe, it would be time for Congress and the American people to look into this matter. There is no assurance, it so happens, that an indiscretion of that sort is always in the interest of the state. The closing of the Dardanelles was to the governments of the Triple Entente the signal that it was time to act. Sir Louis Mallet, M. Bompard, ambassador of the French republic, and Mons. N. M. de Giers, the 120 THE CRAFT SINISTER Russian ambassador, had matters in hand at Constantinople, while Sir Edward Grey, M. Viviani, and M. Sazonoff handled this great problem at home. To have the strait closed was a serious matter of itself. To have Turkey an ally of the Germans was not much worse, of course, as it then seemed. But at best something had to be done to open the strait again. It was a case of war, or of concessions to the Turks. The oflfer of concessions was made. The interminable transactions resolved themselves into this: The governments of the Triple Entente would guarantee the integrity of the territory of the Ottoman empire for the space of thirty years against all comers, if the Ottoman government consented to what in the main would be a neutrality of benevolence toward the countries of the Entente. Said Halim Pasha, the grand vizier, was not the only one who at first gave at least a willing ear, if not a willing mind, to the proposal. Talaat Bey also was more than interested, though not by any means very sympathetic. The grand vizier had thoroughly enjoyed, as he told me once, his course at Oxford and his intercourse with Englishmen in Great Britain and Egypt, from which latter country he hailed. But while he was fond of the everyday-things of the English he had no great opinion of "their political morality," as he put it. Egypt was already little more than a British colony, since its abandonment by the French to Great Britain as a pawn in the entente cordiale and consideration for a free hand in Morocco. Being a good Mohammedan the grand vizier also resented that the world of Islam was everywhere passing under the suzerainty of Great Britain and France. Of promises made by any of the Great Powers he had the poorest opinion. That Turkey was perishing on the good promises of others, was a favorite way of putting it with him. Talaat Bey, again, saw in the Young Turk Party the only salvation of his country, and had concluded that with the acts of that party the Ottoman empire would either rise or fall. An alternative he could not see, as he admitted to me in an interview, after Turkey was in the War. A victorious Triple Entente would dismember Turkey, no matter what promises her statesmen might have made. Turkey, he knew full well, had in the past continued a state by the grace and for the benefit of the anti-Russian Balance of Power in Europe. A victory of the Triple Entente meant a defeat for the Central Powers camp, of course, which in its turn was equivalent for Turkey of being entirely at the mercy of Great Britain, France and Russia for a time. Seeing things in that light left the Young Turk cabinet no other course open but to join the Central Powers sooner or later. The wholly fictitious "session of the Crown Council at Potsdam, July 5, 1914," had nothing to do with it. AN AMERICAN AMBASSADOR IS HEARD FROM 121 The alternative was to remain strictly neutral. Even that was difficult, regardless of whatever viewpoint was taken. For one thing, the Young Turks, with all their faults, were patriots. To remain strictly neutral imposed upon the Turk a sort of conduct which neither side would like. With the War over, Turkey again would have to live by and on the clash of interest of the Powers of Europe. To Enver Pasha, especially, that was a most unpalatable fare, though Said Halim Pasha, Talaat Bey, and the few other men who had anything to say in the matter, were no better pleased with this prospect. There would be a continuation of capitu- lations and the revenues of the empire would still be in the hands of the foreign capitalists who ran the Dette Publique in Stamboul. With the occidental ideas of statecraft with which these men occupied themselves that outlook did not in any way harmonize. They had promoted the Revolution, and the elimination of Sultan Abdul Hamid, for the avowed purpose of making the Ottoman empire an equal among nations. In this they had failed not only in practical respects but also in principle. But it has ever been difficult for men to be fair judges of themselves. Last but not least the Ottoman government had to take into account that an attitude of benevolent neutrality toward the Triple Entente would have serious consequences in case the Central Powers should emerge from the War with victory on their side. Though the military aspect of the situation in Europe was just then not in favor of Germany and her ally, the men in Stamboul knew that the resources of the German empire were far greater than others were pleased to believe. They all realized that they had in their hands the means to embarrass at least, if not actually handicap greatly, one of the Entente powers, Russia, by keeping the Dardanelles closed. That had been done already — with the approbation, if this counted for anything, of every Turk, no matter whether "Old" or "Young." Upon Russia every Turk looked as the arch enemy, and Russia, indeed, had merited that reputation. Constantinople and her waterways were still, as they had been of yore, the multum in parvo of the state of which the city was the capital. Without Constantinople there would be no state — without Stamboul there would be nothing. Geographic factors and mixed popula- tions produce such anachronisms. The Greek and Armenian subjects of Sultan cared little enough for the Ottoman government. What interest they had in the empire was represented by the capital. To perpetuate this City on the Golden Horn, and its many suburbs along the same body of water and on the shores of the iMarmora and Bosphorus, was to them patriotism — a disemboweled patriotism, perhaps, but still the little they could have under the circumstances. Thus it came that even the Greeks and Armenians rejoiced a little, 122 THE CRAFT SINISTER for a day or so, when the Dardanelles were closed. They were less pleased as the drudgery of war started, as it did presently, when the Ottoman government objected to the presence at the entrance of the Bosphorus of Russian mine-laying ships. Negotiations came to an end, relations were severed, and on November 3rd, the Allied fleet let the Turks know that war was on. The bombardment of the Turkish batteries at Sid-il-Bahr and Kum Kale lasted a scant fifteen minutes. Some 200 shots were exchanged, and one of them set off a powder magazine in Sid-il-Bahr, not exactly an auspicious start for the Turks. When and Why German Diplomacy Won A great deal has been said concerning the activity of the German ambassador at Constantinople. That Baron von Wangenheim was an able diplomatist is true enough. Indeed, from the angle of events he was the best of the German diplomatists. But the angle of events is nearly always a poor guide. Had the situation of the Turks been different. Baron von Wangenheim would have failed as completely as did most of his German confreres. I say that on the ground that I knew the baron thoroughly well. The German ambassador was principally able in so far as he did not g^ve the natural direction of events any violent promotion, and that, after all, distinguishes the good from the bad diplomatist. True enough, some diplomatists have flattered themselves that they made this or that ally for their country. The impartial student of human affairs has ever doubted that. What a diplomatist can do is : To engage in acts of provocation that will make enemies. Acts that would make friends lie entirely beyond his reach. The system wills it so. Before two nations, or even two govern- ments, become so friendly to one another that one will spill blood and dis- sipate treasure for the other there must be a community of interests, be that racial, economic or political. It seems to me that even the most conceited diplomatist and statesman can afford to admit that much. What Baron von Wangenheim did in Constantinople was to present the case of the Central Powers in as favorable a light as possible, in which respect his position was not dissimilar to that of the representative of a firm trying to induce another house to do business with it. Though the contrary has been maintained, I would indeed like to meet the man who could influence Talaat Bey, who justly deserves the surname : The stubborn. How little the Ottoman minister of the interior could be swayed was shown later when Baron von Wangenheim insisted that the government in Stamboul put an end to the deportations of the Armenians. In view of what has been said it should be news that in July of 1915, Baron von Wangenheim presented to the Ottoman government, on behalf of WHEN AND WHY GERMAN DIPLOMACY WON 123 the Armenians, what amounted to an ultimatum. The religious societies of Germany had finally managed to present the case of the Armenians to the emperor and had prevailed upon him to interest himself in these fellow- Christians. The Foreign Office in Berlin did not like this interference in an Ottoman affair that was considered strictly an internal matter. For all that, it instructed Baron von Wangenheim to take the matter up with a little more energy. This was done. But Talaat Bey casually informed the German ambassador that the Turkish government would permit no interference with anything that had no bearing upon Turkish- German relations. Baron von Wangenheim would point to the evil repute Germany was getting as the result of the treatment given the Armenians. His plea, that the agents of the Entente used the case for propaganda calculated to further hurt a government already laboring under the handicap of the invasion of Belgium and the sinking of the Lusitania, would elicit from Talaat Bey nothing but the rather cynical remark that Germany, "if ashamed of her company with Turkey, could go her own way.'' Some men in Berlin, possibly the emperor himself, found such conduct on the part of Talaat Bey a little too presumptions. Baron von Wangen- heim was instructed to demand the immediate cessation of the measures employed against the Armenians and place the possible abandonment of Turkey by Germany as the alternative. When Talaat Bey heard that he smiled, as usual, and told the German ambassador to inform the German government that in Turkey it was the 'Ottoman government that was supreme, and that, if it was so minded, the German government could go its own way without delay. It would be best, anyway, if the Imperial German government began to realize a little more that in Turkey it had not found a vassal but an ally — an equal. For the German government that was a bitter pill to swallow. Nothing of this was permitted to get into the press, lest the German public become alarmed. After that Baron von Wangenheim refused to entertain similar requests, and in the interest of good relations made a trip home, though his health also needed a little more consideration than it had been given by him. On the whole the German diplomatists in Constantinople had a very strenuous time with the Turks in Stamboul. Even the able and shrewd Dr. Richard von Kiihlmann, at that time conseiller of the Germany em- bassy, had his hands full, despite the fact that he was dealing only with the overflow of friction. Not all of this was due to Germano-Turkish inter- national relations. For the purpose of promoting the interests of Field Marshall von der Goltz Pasha, at that time commander of the Ottoman Second Army in Thrace, and formerly chief of the German Military Mission to Turkey, a large and influential element at the German embassy 124 THE CRAFT SINISTER had made up its mind to effect the recall of Field Marshall Liman von Sanders Pasha, then head of the mission and commander of the Ottoman forces on Gallipoli. It was charged that Liman Pasha had made a very poor job of defending the peninsula. So far as could be judged the complaint was unjustified. I had spent a great deal of time at the Dardanelles and on Gallipoli and knew what difficulties Liman Pasha had encountered most successfully. There can be no doubt that he did his best with the means at his disposal. For all that the intriguants at the German embassy persisted that he ought to be removed. Since Enver Pasha, minister of war and vice-generalissimo of the Ottoman army, was not yet through congratulating himself that the landing at Sid-il-Bahr and Ariburnu had not resulted in worse, it was rather dif- ficult to get his attention on this subject. I am sure that Enver Pasha had a case of gooseflesh whenever he thought himself in the role of commander in chief on Gallipoli. An uglier job could not be found. Quite impatiently, therefore, he told Baron von Wangenheim one day that, while the German general staff and the German emperor could not be prevented from re- calling Liman Pasha and appointing another man as chief of the German Military Mission to Turkey, he would deem it a great favor if he would be allowed to have Liman Pasha enter entirely the Ottoman military service as commander on Gallipoli. That ended it. Baron von Wangen- heim had once more put his foot into it, as the saying goes, and he had done this against his better judgment. Instances of that sort were many, and all of them went to prove that so far as the post at Constantinople was concerned it would have been better had the German Foreign Office for- gotten that there was such a thing. Diplomatic Sauce for Goose and Gander The attitude of the German government toward the Armenians was not always what I have pictured here. At first it was entirely different — essentially Prussian. On a trip I made through Asia Minor in May, 1915, I accidentally encountered a large column of deported Armenians in the Cilician Gates in the Taurus Mountains. Though I saw none of the cruelties the Turks have later been charged with, and I hold brief for neither Turk nor Armenian, and flatter myself with being somewhat of a truth-loving man, I could not but sympathize with the four thousand-odd women and children and decrepit men, who on a cold and rainy day were crossing over a mountain pass in a wilderness where even in worse weather they would have been unable to find shelter, food or comfort. The inquiries I made at that time and later have caused me to believe that Turkish ineptness, more than intentional brutality, was responsible for DIPLOMATIC SAUCE FOR GOOSE AND GANDER 125 the hardships the Armenians were subjected to. On my return to Constan- tinople I wrote of the matter and submitted it to the censors. These good men were horror-struck at my audacity, to think that they would permit anything of the sort to go through, but were rather apologetic when they handed the articles back to me. When every other means to get the story to the United States had failed, I appealed to Baron von Wangenheim, making it clear to him that as the correspondent of a neutral press it was my duty to get this piece of news out. The ambassador agreed with me, and was willing to dispatch the copy as far as Berlin by means of the courier — Feldjager — of his own embassy. But it was his opinion that in Berlin my dispatches and mail articles would be held up, and that nothing could be gained, then, by getting them that far. I decided to try some other avenue, and finally found it in the service of a train conductor, who promised to mail the matter from the Bulgarian frontier railroad station. My articles were never delivered to the headquarters of the news service at Berlin, instead I was ultimately informed that I had no right to evade the Turkish censorship. The informa- tion came from the German government, and the attache of the German embassy in Constantinople who conveyed it took pains to have me under- stand that the suppression of an uprising in times of war, as in times of peace, no matter what means employed, was a right which all governments reserved for themselves, and that so far no government was known that had made common cause with rebels. It was a phase of sovereignty, etc., etc., etc. Sovereignty does cover a multitude of things, when applied propa- gandically. The uprising of the Armenians was one thing, it seemed, that of the Irish quite another. Before I proceed with the general depiction of diplomacy in Turkey I must devote a little more space to the United States embassy at that point. Ex-ambassador Morgenthau has in his book devoted considerable space to the occasions on which he was of some use to the diplomatic representa- tives of the governments of the Triple Entente. He has also made it clear that from the very first he was not in sympathy with the diplomatists, diplomacy and general policies, of the Central Powers, all of them being more or less noxious to his fine principles. To have been of special importance to Sir Louis Mallet, and of gratuitous service to him at the time of the closing of the Dardanelles, and again later, is one of the things he is proud of. Yet in his neutrality proclamations, and especially in his appeal to the American people to observe a true neutrality, President Wilson had emphasized the necessity for an impartiality in words as well as in conduct. But the books of diplomatists must not be taken too seriously. The ambassador who avers that from the very inception of trouble he was 126 THE CRAFT SINISTER with this or with that side may be doing nothing more than presenting just one side of his attitude, with sHght exaggerations, possibly. The fact in this case is, that Mr. Morgenthau was well liked by the German diplomatists in Pera, and, long after the outbreak of the War, was not averse to being known as a friend of Baron von Wangenheim. I happen to know that the German ambassador consulted the American ambassador on subjects that did not at all concern the latter. On the other hand, there was no more constant caller at the American embassy than the Marquis Pallavicini, the Austro-Hungarian ambassador, and the relations between the Central Powers and United States diplomatists were rather more cordial than what Mr. Morgenthau would have us believe. All of which would be of no consequence to the general public, were it not that it seems necessary, in view of the cost of the Great Disaster, and its effect upon the world in general, to portray the diplomatic service as it is. The United States diplomatists in Europe during the Great War were in their local spheres the least omnipotent and omniscient of any. The chiefs of the several missions were not hommes de carriere. They were successful men of affairs, whom campaign contributions and political party favors landed at their diplomatic posts. They possessed neither the training nor the experience to make them good diplomatic envoys in a world entirely foreign to them in political practice, ideals, and social systems. A Diplomatist in a Quandary When Mr. Morgenthau arrived in Constantinople, the officials in Stamboul did their best to make him feel at home and at ease. Among the men who especially cultivated the new United States ambassador was Enver Pasha, who was a welcome guest at the teas and luncheons of Mme. Morgenthau long after Turkey had entered the War. Talaat Bey, too, was on the best terms with the American ambassador, and so were a number of other officials and officers, even though, as has been averred, they lacked the means to buy uniforms and wore, as the Turk always does, the regulation Stambuli — a frock-coat with a high collar of clerical cut. By and large the American ambassador was rather friendly with the Turks, as the diplomatic representative of a friendly power ought to be; that he was this is proved, moreover, by a statement made to me by M. Haim Nahoum, Grand Rabbi of Turkey, who took particular delight in pointing out that the really congenial qualities of the new American ambassador had contributed greatly toward making the Ottoman government amenable to certain requests that had been made in regard to the interests of the Jewish colonists in Palestine. It may be presumed that there are few people who expected Jews generally to espouse the interests of Russia at the outbreak of the European A DIPLOMATIST IN A QUANDARY 127 War and for many months afterward. To be frank about it, I was one of those who found such an attitude perfectly logical. Whatever the facts back of the pogroms may have been, the truth is that the Russian govern- ment had been guilty of gross negligence, to say the least, in permitting such atrocities to happen. When relations were severed by Russia with Turkey, the care of Russian interests in the Ottoman empire was given into the hands of the Italian embassy at Constantinople. When Italy became involved in the War with Turkey, Russian interests were once more out in the street, so to speak. The government in Petrograd requested the United States to take charge of them, and the State Department, despite the fact that the American embassy in Pera was already overcrowded with the care of foreigners and their property in Turkey, asked Mr. Morgenthau to care for the Russian subjects and their interests also. The American ambassador had a caller one fine summer's morning in 1915. The person in question had visited the embassy on routine matters, but had been asked by Mr. Antonian, private secretary of the ambassador, to step into the sanctum sanctorum. The ambassador seemed very much agitated. He asked the caller to be seated, and then resumed his perambulations about the room. After a while he stopped before the visitor. There was no doubt that he was greatly perturbed. He had been asked by his, the American, government, began the ambassador, to take charge of Russian interests in Turkey. "To comply with the request is hardly possible for me," he continued. "What would my people in New York say to it — what would Jews anywhere say to it, if I took over the care of Russian interests in this country? Can you imagine what they would say? They would loathe me for doing it. How could a self-respecting Jew do anything of the kind? How could he lend himself to the protection of the subjects and their properties of a government which for centuries has ruthlessly and systematically persecuted and abused members of his race ? I won't do it. I can't do it?" The caller did not know whether or no an expression of opinion was wanted and remained silent. The ambassador resumed his peregrinations about the room, leaving the other to review pogroms, the refusal to recognize passports of the United States issued to Jewish citizens, the abrogation on that account by the U. S. Senate of the Russian commercial treaties, things that happened outside the port of Odessa, and what not. After a while the ambassador stopped again before the caller. "I would like to hear what you think of it," he said. "You have knocked about this world long enough to have an opinion on the subject." 128 THE CRAFT SINISTER The caller said that he did not wish to give advice on such a matter. It was hard to see how any Jew could take care of Russian interests. On the other hand, the ambassador would have to consider that he was not a Jew in this instance but the diplomatic representative of the United States, a government at peace with Russia, despite the abrogation of the commercial treaty in retaliation of Russia's discrimination against American citizens of Jewish race, and that governments at peace with one another could not very well refuse to be mutually of service in times such as they were. Rather than take that view, said the American ambassador, he would resign. While he appreciated the trust placed in him, and the honor ac- corded, in being given a diplomatic appointment, the State Department could not expect him to do something that savored of an insult self- administered. He would resign, if the government insisted upon his taking over Russian interests in Turkey. The caller saw the substance of a first-class news dispatch in the interview, and suggested something to that effect. To that the ambassador would not listen, however. There would be time enough in a few days. The few days never came, of course. In view of the fact that I am not a great admirer of anonymity I will state that I am the caller. Diplomatic Omnipotence at Close Range Diplomatists off post are fond of having others believe that they were not far from being omnipotent while accredited. That applies particularly to those who served last in a country with whom their own government has gone to war. I met in Constantinople two excellent gentlemen : Captain J. P. Morton, commander of the U. S. Cruiser "Scorpion," the American stationaire in the Golden Horn, and Captain R. H. Williams, of the U. S. Coast Artillery, attending to relief work in Turkey. The first of the officers was also naval attache, while the latter had an uncertain status as military attache. Both were very much interested in what was going on at the Dardanelles and on Gallipoli, and had so far been unable to get to either point ; both of them felt that the affairs at the gates of Constantinople were of the utmost importance to military observers. Captain Williams was keen to judge the effect of shell fire on the Turkish emplacements along the Dardanelles, since coast defense is an important factor in the national security of the United States, and Captain Morton, also, showed the greatest interest. Here was a case in which two members of the arms which were opposing one another in attack and defense, navy and coast DIPLOMATIC OMNIPOTENCE AT CLOSE RANGE 129 artillery, were within a stone's throw of the greatest demonstration that had ever been seen, but had found their ambassador unable to get them there. I had, so far as this was permissible, and within my pledges to the Ottoman minister of war, given to Captain Williams what data I could. Though I had had some artillery experience myself, my knowledge was confined to field artillery, and for the purposes of Captain Williams was not definite enough. He was working on a report to his department, and to make this complete he required better and more technical information than I could give him. Captain Morton, also, had occupied himself similarly, and on March 16th, Mr. Morgenthau had been to see himself what little damage up to then the British and French fleets had been able to inflict. In the major attack of March 18th the damage done to the Turkish "forts" and emplacements along the strait was more extensive, but not fatal. But these are things that must, for military purposes, be seen by men who are more or less expert. Together with another American correspondent, Mr. Raymond E. Swing, Berlin correspondent of the Chicago Daily News, I had succeeded in getting from Enver Pasha, the minister of war, a passport that amounted to carte blanche at any of the Turkish fronts. The two of us had witnessed the Allied operation against the Dardanelles, from A to Z, as the saying goes, and had shown by our conduct, I believe, that we were to be trusted. The result was that we could move about in Turkey very much as we pleased, provided we gave notice of our intentions. Captains Williams and 'Morton had suggested several times that I use my efforts in their behalf to get them to the Dardanelles. Already it was in the American embassy a case of being mistaken for pro-Turk when one did not heap verbal abuse upon a country and government whose guest one was. Captains 'Morton and Williams were sure that my standing with the Ottoman government was better than that of the ambassador. Others thought so, too, but hinted that it was love for the Turks that caused this state of affairs. Especially, one G. Cornell Tarler, one of the embassy secretaries, was sure that love for the Turk and "maybe something else" was responsible for the good standing of Mr. Swing and myself with the Turks and Germans. That newspapermen are as a rule very cold-blooded in such matters — ^too cynical in fact to give much for the sentiments roused by war, was not clear to some of the United States diplomatists in Constan- tinople, who themselves had taken sides, quite frankly and openly at that, in spite of the neutrality proclamations of their superior chief. I was willing, even anxious, to help the two captains, feeling that there were lessons in the Dardanelles coast batteries that would benefit the United States coast artillery service and the navy. The matter was 130 THE CRAF^T SINISTER brought by me to the attention of Major Kiamil Bey, personal adjutant of Enver Pasha, and to Major Sefid Bey, in charge of the Second Division of the Harbiyeh Nasaret, the Ottoman ministry of war and general staff. Both of them promised to do what they could, but feared that this would be little enough. The Turk has the delightful quality of being frank with persons whom he has no reason to placate with empty promises. Kiamil and Sefid Beys did what they could, and it amounted to nothing. Colonel Bronsart von Schellendorf, the Ottoman chief of staff, and Major Fischer, a German officer in the Ottoman service, who was charged with such matters, had expressed themselves against the trip of Captains Morton and Williams, because, as they put it, they did not want to establish precedents. Up to now, in fact, no other foreigners, not in the Ottoman military and naval service, had been given the privileges Mr. Swing and I enjoyed. From another source which I need not divulge I had learned, however, that Turk and German, both, were afraid to let the two American officers go to the front. In the circles that ran the military machine of Turkey, Americans in official capacity were suspected of being so much in sympathy with the cause of the Allies that they would transmit to them information they gathered. Mr. Morgenthau, meanwhile, was also doing his best. But Enver Pasha, whom he addressed in the matter, made promises which he hoped to be able to keep some day. The prospect that anything would come of them were slim enough, and since Captains Morton and Williams thought the thing very pressing, they asked me to get in touch with the Ottoman naval staff. That organization, however, was entirely in the hands of the Germans; its chief was Admiral Souchon, who, possibly, because he was married to an American woman, was more easily approached than others. Unfortunately, the admiral was away from the city just then. The man next suitable for my purposes was Corvette^Captain Humann, commander of the German Naval Base on the Bosphorus, and naval attache of the German embassy. He would do his best, he said. That best was a letter, dated April 18th, in which he said that he had taken the matter up with Captain von Jansen, Souchon's chief of staff, but that the prospects were not promising.* That reply seemed final enough to me. Captains Williams and Morton were not to get to the Dardanelles. For some weeks the matter rested, and then, at a dinner given in the quarters of one of the officers, it was decided to take it up aeain. I am afraid that the two officers feared that I was not promoting their cause as well as they thought I could. On the following day, the ambassador asked me into his office. • See footnote on opposite page. DIPLOMATIC OMNIPOTENCE AT CLOSE RANGE 131 He said that the two captains had importuned him until life was a misery — as well they might since they considered their professional reputa- tion at stake, in addition to being unable to make a thorough study of the effect of modern high-explosives upon coast artillery works. Everything possible had been done by him to get them to the scene of action. But there was no end of promises and no performance. Enver Pasha had told him time and again that the two officers would be given the opportunity they sought, but it seemed that the Germans "up on the hill" — a reference to the German embassy on the Boulevard Ayas Pasha — were against the trip. It seemed, also, that one element was putting the blame on the other, since German officers in high command had made the Turks responsible. He wanted me to remove the obstacles. I told the ambassador that he was mistaken. Whatever influence I had was being exerted, and so far my efforts had led to nothing. It also was brought to the ambassador's attention that there was no reason to believe that I could do what he could not do. But Mr. Morgenthau was of a different mind. Having been given carte blanche in this manner, I set again about to make the trip possible. This time I took the matter up with Enver Pasha himself, and also interested the German ambassador in the project. Within two weeks I had the promise of the two that the American officers would be taken to the front. Some time was lost, however, in breaking down the * I append a part of a report made to the Congress of the United States. "Copy of a letter (original in existence) writ- "Trntitlnn^ti ten by Corvette-Captain Humann, commander ..^ "^.°, "' xt , t> tt ^ of the Imperial German naval base at Constan- Imperial German Naval Base Headquarters, tinople, to the verbal request made to him that "B No Seid"%o''vgi. 7h""lrT„.rat^ihrD^r°jrn« "Consuntinopl.. April 18.h. 15. and on Gallipoli. "My dear Mr. Schreiner: "According to information coming from '• 'v-^:^ i;_t. r* .-t t. ■»«• • Herrn von Janson, there is little prospect of " 'Etinnen KrSfm/n^n ^""* success for an application by Captain Williams " 'B No ?^ . . ... ^^'^ ^^ inspection of the Dardanelles. "The violation of the principle is feared, as " 'C'pel, 18. 4. IS. is especially the precedent which would create "•Sehr geehrter Herr Schreiner! inevitable consequence. „ A 1 r. J TT T "With best greetings, Nach einer Auskunft des Herrn von Jan- "Vmirc son scheint mir ein Gesuch des Captain Wil- xours, Hams fuer eine Besichtigung der Dardanellcn (Signed) "Humakk. nicht aussichtsreich. ..jj^^^ ^^„ j^„^„ ^iU j„f^^„ y^„ ^5^^^^,^ " 'Man befuerchtet den Durchbruch des Prin- concerning travel opportunities to the Darda- zips und besonders den Praezedenzfall der nellcs. unumgaengliche Konsequenzen schaffti ^. , ~ — "Note. — The above letter was written at the Mit ergebenstem Gruss! very beginning of the negotiations. Other cor- " 'ihr respondence relative to the case of Captains r'«;,Vrl«^^ " «TTrT«AM»T ' Williams and Morton is still among my effects (.Mgneci; MUMANN. jj^ Switzerland, which, owing to the habit of " 'Herr von Janson wird Ihnen wegen Fahrge- the French authorities, seizing the papers of legenheit nach den Dardanellen direckt Nach- travellers, I did not attempt to take out with richt geben.' " me. GAS." 132 THE CRAFT SINISTER resistance of the Turkish and Cerman officers who in the past had opposed the trip of inspection, but Captains Morton and Williams were finally invited to make the trip, and had the experience of seeing the first Ameri- can-made shells used on Gallipoli break about them. I have pfone into the details of this case for a special reason. It has been intimated already that the authorities in Constantinople were sus- picious of the American embassy. The case, indeed, was much worse. In the cafes of Pera and Stamboul it was openly discussed that the American embassy was a sort of headquarters for the spies of the Entente govern- ments, who, by the way, numbered hundreds. The U. S. stationaire "Scorpion" was linked with the exploits of the British submarines in the Sea of Marmora, and when, one fine summer's afternoon, a British sub- marine penetrated into the Bosphorus, and nonchalantly blew up a coal barge at a quay in Haidar- Pasha, under the very windows of the Ottoman government offices in Stamboul, the Turkish populace swore that the Americans were responsible for it, while the Greeks and Armenians, waiting for a deliverer, saw in the sinking of the coal barge a sign that the United States had made an alliance with the Triple Entente. The Foibles of a Diplomatic Agent Public opinion in times of war is the most unreliable thing there is. The indignation of the Turks and the wishes of the non-Turks had to be met by the Ottoman government. They were met by ordering the "Scorpion" to take station inside the Golden Horn, between the new and the old bridges. To Mr. Morgenthau's protest the Ottoman government replied that it would be safer to have the stationaire at her new moorings, since a British submarine might mistake her for a Turkish vessel and sink her. The circumstance that this step was accompanied by a close search for wireless apparatus at Robert College, the American School for Girls at Arnautkoi, and in some of the houses inhabited by Americans, serves as an indication that the Ottoman government was itself not entirely satisfied with the appearance of things. In March, 1915, the staff of the American embassy received re-in- forcement in the person of Mr. Lewis Einstein, who had formerly been a secretary at the same post, had left it as persona non grata, and had since then filled a .small position as chef de mission in Latin America. Mr. Einstein was not wanted at the American embassy in Pera. At the time of his arrival I was at the Dardanelles, but even in that shell-raked region the name of the new diplomatic agent was mentioned. It seems that the Turkish government persisted in looking upon Mr. Einstein as entirely a plain citizen and refused to extend diplomatic privileges to him. Since THE FOIBLES OF A DIPLOMATIC AGENT 133 more help was needed at the American embassy, owing to the increase in work occasioned by the taking-over of the interests of belligerent govern- ments, it was not easy to understand why Mr. Einstein should be given such treatment. Upon my return to the city I learned that the diplomatic agent was even persona non grata with the embassy staff. He had been relegated into a little cubby-hole of an office on the second floor of the embassy chancery and his principal occupation seemed to consist of doing nothing in par- ticular. The ambassador himself was highly displeased with this sort of assistance, and indiscreet persons about the embassy let it be understood that Mr. Einstein had been sent to Constantinople at the request of M. Jusserand, the French ambassador at Washington. Since Mr. Einstein, before his transfer to the Turkish capital, had been stationed at London and Paris, that rumor had more color than was well. I may say that many of my despatches from the Dardanelles were relayed through the American embassy, though I had an assistant in Con- stantinople with an address of his own, the Petit Club, next door to the embassy. Since Mr. Damon Theron could get the dispatches at one place as easily as at the other, and since Mr. Morgenthau was keenly interested in what was going on at the front, I addressed my dispatches to his embassy. In that manner he and his secretaries and attaches were kept informed almost up to the minute. My dispatches contained all the general public could be interested in. Originally they contained more than what the Turkish and German officer- censors at Dardanelles thought necessary, and from their own angle, wise. Since the newspaper correspondent writing war copy can not afford to violate confidence, should not do it, as a matter of fact, if he wishes to retain his usefulness, let alone his good name, the dispatches which the embassy members had read marked the limit to which I could carry dis- cussion. Several members of the embassy staff did not think so. Shortly after my return from the Dardanelles front I was invited to have tea with the ambassador and his staff — a "stag affair," which took place almost every day and to which usually only the secretaries and the chief clerks were invited. On this day were present : Mr. Morgenthau, Mr. Einstein, Mr. Shamavonian, first dragoman, Mr. Antonian, the ambas- sador's private secretary, and one of the diplomatic secretaries. There was no reason why for their entertainment I should not recount the general features of the great bombardment in a more intimate manner that newspaper writing permits. But I noticed that after a while I was being cross-examined, with Mr. Einstein in control of the process. What he wanted to know especially was what amount of ammunition there was left in the Turkish emplacements. In military information that is a major 134 THE CRAFT SINISTER subject, of course, and quite the last thing which a war correspondent should discuss. Needless to say I avoided that question. When a diplomatic agent shows too great an interest in so vital an aspect of a military situa- tion it is usually best to be on guard. Several efforts to bring Mr. Einstein off the subject failed. I pleaded ignorance. That also was futile. The diplomatic agent thought that as a former officer of artillery the detail of ammunition could not escape my attention. In that he was right, of course. It did so happen that I knew the exact number of shells, of the armor-piercing variety, which were left in the main batteries of Anadolu Hamidieh and in the Kilid-il-Bahr works. I also surmised that the agents of the Entente government would pay any sum for the information, and think the bargain a good one. The blue-heads left could not keep the Allied fleet from forcing the strait — ^the Dardanelles in fact were open, as the Allied commander could have easily ascertained by returning to the attack on March 19th, or for weeks thereafter. With a little more initiative than was shown, the British and French fleets would have been in Constantinople long before I could be there, as I have fully explained in my book "From Berlin to Bagdad.'* There is no doubt that I had in my hands a goodly share of the fate of nations, but it was no business of mine to give the rudder of the war and fate so violent a jerk. Had the Allies known that the Turkish batteries along the Dardanelles were virtually out of ammunition of the armor-pierc^ ing kind, had they known that the further resistance of the Turks could at best be but a matter of minutes, not even hours, that Admiral von Usedom Pasha, Mertens Pasha and the Turkish officers were sure that a following-up of the bombardment of March 18th would result in crushr ing defeat for them and a retreat into Anatolia, much of the history of the Great War might be different. What the Allied governments did learn was that on March 19th the Ottoman government was ready to go to Eski- Shehir, but that did not seem to be enough. Mr. Einstein must have surmised that I knew more than I was willing: to admit. I am afraid that I was not enough of a simulator to deceive him. He began to press the point anew, and this time stated that as a citizen of the United States it was my duty to give the diplomatic service whatever information I had. Mr. Morgenthau was inclined to support that view, and Mr. Shamavonian also chimed in. The incident closed by my telling Mr. Einstein and the company gently but firmly that I did not take this view of the situation, and that the journalistic profession had rules of its own — one of them being not to exchange confidences with a service, the diplomatic, for instance, which normally made it its great principle not to give more information to press and public than was deemed wise or purposeful. THE FOIBLES OF A DIPLOMATIC AGENT 135 My actual motive in not telling Mr. Einstein what ammunition the Turks had left was my desire to treat them as they had treated me. There was no reason why the Turkish and German officers in the Ottoman service should allow me to practically live in their emplacements — a most incautious violation of every rule of military security. Still they had done that, because I was personally liked by them and had, in return for the privilege of being permitted at the fronts, placed myself under Ottoman military law, with the especial understanding that in case of trouble I would not appeal to the American embassy for help. But conduct of that sort is not so easily understood by the members of a profession that will violate every rule of good ethics when it can do that with impunity. Though I had given Mr. Einstein to understand that on questions of vital importance to the Turks I could not be interviewed, he tried again later on to get the information he seemed to want so badly. For Captains Morton and Williams, who had at least some reason to be interested in this aspect of affairs at the Dardanelles, I must say that neither of them even hinted at the subject of ammunition. Beyond the Bounds of Diplomatic Propriety It was the conduct of Mr. Einstein that brought the American embassy in Pera into disrepute. Constantinople was the locale of an ex- tended espionage of the Allied governments. One of their agents was a man who had come to Turkey with an American passport, issued him in London under false pretenses or with the connivance of some embassy official, when he was in reality a British subject and had already served in the British army in France. The man had in addition credentials from Mr. Bell, of the Chicago Daily News, a paper which was represented at that very moment by an able man I have mentioned, Mr. Swing, who did not know that representation of his paper in Constantinople had been duplicated in so imprudent a manner. I did not wish to see the young man strangulated on a tripod, on the Seraskerkapu, and let him know that the last boat for Rumania was to leave early the following morning. The secret service of the Turks had been watching him closely, and Mr. Morgen- thau had confirmed what I had suspected by asking me to tell the man that a renewal of his passport had been refused by the Department of State on the ground that he was not an American citizen. I may say that the agent first attracted the attention of the Ottoman authorities by coming to Constantinople with credentials for a paper that was well represented in Turkey. Mr. Swing was questioned in regard to the man before he had met him, and had stated that probably it was some other Chicago paper, which the agent, who was not a newspaper man, of 136 THE CRAFT SINISTER course, had come to represent. He had no reason to believe that the "correspondent" had been appointed by the Chicago Daily News, as his card actually said, nor did he believe it until he saw the letter from Mr. Bell. There was nothing to do after that but accept the man as bona Ude, at least publicly. The authorities, however, were not satisfied with these features of the case, and in the end Mr. Swing himself was doubted, so much so that he had to apply for a sort of safe conduct before he could return to his regular post in Berlin. The standing of the Americans in Constantinople was further injured by the conduct of a man known as Captain Stanley Fortesque, an Ameri- can journalist. The man had been taken to the Dardanelles on one of the personally-conducted trips the war department organized for itinerant newspaper men not regularly stationed in Turkey. Such a trip consisted of a run down to the Dardanelles aboard a torpedoboat or destroyer and a view of the Turkish emplacements from the outside, to which later a short trip to the fronts at Ariburnu and Sid-il-Bahr was added. As the result of this the man in question had written for the Paris periodical V Illustration an article going into the min ite details of what was purported to be the condition along the Dardanelles. The article was accompanied by drawings, more or less inaccurate, but dangerous enough to the Turks to necessitate a change in some of the emplacements. Needless to say, the Turks were not pleased with that sort of conduct on the part of a man who had been a member of the United Si ates army. The incident had the eflfect that thereafter no foreign correspondents of the itinerant type were permitted to ijo to any of the Turkish fronts. In this connection I may say that the Tu/ks were unusually liberal in that respect at the outbreak of the War. To sum up this situation I wish to record that already the relations between the Turkish government and the American embassy were the poorest. They were so poor in fact that on the occasion of an audience given Mr. Swing and myself by Sultan Mohammed Rechid Khan V, the sovereign did not even think it worth while to express the usual formula according to which the relations between two countries are supposed to be the best. Though the audience was long enough to have included that little detail, the sultan did not refer to it. The callers could not remind him of it, of course, nor did Salih Pasha, the Sultan's aide de camp, who acted as interpreter, think of this little matter. When later we came to it, Mr. Swing and I concluded that no great harm would be done by supplying this little formality ourselves. In this connection I must state that Mr. Morgenthau had been unable to secure the audience for us, and that we made use of our private connections in Turkish and German official circles. VUI MACHIAVELISM A OUTRANGE THE Dardanelles-Gallipoli fiasco is still puzzling the minds of the few vho care to go into subjects of that sort with reason and logic as their equipment. The peculiar aspects of the operations of the naval forces and expeditionary armies of the Allied governments were to a certain extent dealt with by the British Dardanelles Commission, which investigated the obvious phases of this piece of military Quixotism, but nothing substantial — that is, truthful — ever came of this. In the reports of this commission it has been admitted that mistakes were made, and after that nothing was heard again of Sir Ian Hamilton, who was in charge of the landing and operations on Gallipoli. Though the military features of this adventure are somewhat stale just now, I must give enough of them to prepare the reader for the politics behind them, promising to be brief in my outline. The first attack by the Allied fleet on the Turkish works at Kum Kale and Sid-il-Bahr was made on November 3, 1914, the bombardment having in the main the character of a demonstration — notice to theTurks that the War was on. On December 13th an Allied submarine penetrated the Dardanelles as far as the Dardanos emplacement and there torpedoed the converted hull of the Turkish former battleship "Messudieh," moored on the shallows of Sari Siglar Bay and serving as a signal station. Two days later the Turkish gunners sank nearby the French submarine that may have done this, and on January 15th, 1915, the French submarine "Sapphire" sank in the same locality by striking a mine. On February 20th the Allied fleet began a severe attack on the batteries of Kum Kale and Sid-il-Bahr, which guarded the entrance, and after a seven-days bombardment, in which the Turks were sorely handicapped by the lesser range of their guns, the works in question were silenced and in part razed to the ground. For another two days the sites of the coast batteries were subjected to bombardments and then the Turkish emplace- ments along Erenkoi Bay were taken under fire, especially the five-piece battery on the site of the ancient city of Dardanos. Little by little the zone of the bombardment was extended, and on March 5th the works at Killid-il-Bahr were seriously hammered for the first time. On the following day the piece de resistance of the defense scheme of the Outer Dardanelles, 137 138 THE CRAFT SINISTER Fort Anadolu Hamidieh, was placed under fire by the Allied fleet, and on the following day this was continued. After that a period of rest set in, due in the main to the paucity of effect favorable to the Allies. The Turks had placed howitzers on the elevations of Gallipoli and the eastern shore of the strait and these were making themselves much more felt than the German artillery experts, who had advised that course, had themselves expected. While the shell of the howitzer is absolutely impotent against the side of an armored warcraft, it can, nevertheless, penetrate the decks of such ships, when these are unarmored. The Allied fleet had been much molested by this, and their conduct indicated that re-inforce- ments would be called to take care of this situation. Caliber for caliber the guns in the Turkish emplacements were much inferior to those of the British and French battleships. They were wholly impotent in comparison to the large rifles of the "Queen Elizabeth," a member of what was then the most modern type of superdreadnaught battle-cruisers. The difference in range between gun ashore and gun afloat was even in case of the older pre-dreadnaught types employed by the Allies great enough to permit the total reduction of the coast batteries without the ships having to come within what was at all an effective range of the Turkish guns. In the bombardment and reduction of the works at the entrance to the strait that had been the deciding factor. The Allied fleet had destroyed those batteries without suffering material losses of any kind. Within the Dardanelles, in the Bay of Erenkoi, it was different, however. Outside the Allied battleships had stayed well out of effective range of the Turkish guns. In Erenkoi Bay that was not possible, since a ring of emplacements, all of them more or less antiquated, surrounded them there. In addition there were the howitzers of the Turks. A shell piercing the deck may easily ruin the machinery of a ship, may even sink it, provided conditions are favorable. A Militaro-Diplomatic Move Foiled It was plain, then, to the commander of the Allied fleet, that he would have to augment his forces sufficiently to take the major part of the coast batteries along the Outer Dardanelles under fire simultaneously. He had this fleet at Tenedos and Lemnos on March 16th. Two days later he came to the attack with a force of eighteen battleships of the line and the "Queen Elizabeth." So far the Turkish gunners and their German associates had been accustomed to dealing with from three to seven bombarding battleships. The greater array left them somewhat diffused in mind and fire practice. So many targets were offered and so few of them could be reached that A MIUTARO-DIPLOMATIC MOVE FOILED 139 a most uncomfortable feeling crept over everybody, as I have reason to know, seeing that I weathered the opening salvoes in a Turkish emplace- ment, Fort Tchemenlik. Knowing that a live war correspondent is better than a dead one, I ultimately found better cover, a polite way for saying that there was an unceremonious retreat, with little glory attaching thereto. The fire of the Allied ships was an overwhelming one. But the great range of it made most of the shells rather ineffective for lack of good aim, to which must be added that the old earthworks of the Turks withstood the impact of the huge projectiles much better than a modern concrete-armor contraption of the Antwerp type would have done. Aerial observers had established that much by about 1 p. m. and the result was that the Allied ships, milling about the bay, ventured in closer, despite the mine field that was believed to be more formidable than in reality it was. At 2 p. m. the French battleship "Bouvet," was sunk by the Turkish and German gunners in Fort Anadolu Hamidieh, and two hours later, the Allied armada had seven disabled ships on their hands. About sundown one of these, the "Irresistible," was sliced to pieces by the guns of the Turks, and a little later, a third member of the fleet, the "Ocean" sank in Morto Bay, a little bight on the Gallipolian shore, where British cruisers intended beaching the injured vessel. The "Queen Elizabeth" had suffered heavily from the shells of the howitzers and had also withdrawn. All of this took more ammunition than the Turks had to give to the affairs of a single day, and when night came the prospect was that a return of the British and French en force on the morrow would certainly "force" the Dardanelles. There was no return engagement, however, contrary to the fulsome newspaper reports of those days. The Allied fleet failed to appear, and after sticking close to the islands of Tenedos and Lemnos for a few days, most of the ships went to other parts for repairs and refitting. The supreme commander of the armada could not know that the Turks were practically out of ammunition, and, in addition to that, he was obliged to count on the defense of the Turkish batteries along the Inner Dardanelles as well as on the efforts of the works he had bombarded during a day that cost him three battleships, several minor craft, and necessitated much repair work. Nor had he learned that the Germans, theorizing that with the defense of the Outer Strait the fate of the Inner Dardanelles would be decided, had totally changed the system of batteries, as the British Naval Mission to Turkey knew it. Admiral Limpus, the chief of that mission, was indeed with the Allied fleet, and his advice under different conditions would have been invaluable. But the Germans and Turks had discounted that in the regroupment that was undertaken within the limits set by time and equipment. 140 THE CRAFT SINISTER The Allied fleet resumed the bombardment of the batteries in conjunc- tion with the landing of the first expeditionary forces on April 25th, but remembered too well the lesson it had been given on March 18th to venture in very close. Moreover, a different plan of action had been decided upon meanwhile in London. The troops landed on Gallipoli on April 25th and for the three days following were supposed to place themselves in possession of certain elevations on the peninsula from which the Turkish coast batteries along the Outer and Inner Dardanelles could be bombarded to greater advantage, and silenced, so that the Allied fleet, in which the British units predominated, could steam to Constantinople. The two principal elevations were the Atchi-Baba, a little distance north of the points in and near Sid-il-Bahr, where British troops were landed, and the Kodjatchemen Dagh, immediately in the rear of Ariburnu, where the **Anzac" troops were set ashore. The landing of French contingents near Kum Kale, on the Anatolian shore, and a feint on the Thracian shore by Greek volunteers, in the Gulf of Xeros, were measures designed to deceive Field Marshall Liman von Sanders Pasha, who was in charge of the defense of the peninsula. To some extent Liman Pasha was deceived. While he had not left entirely undefended the shore at Sid-il-Bahr, and Ariburnu, he had, never- theless, stationed the gross of his scant force, and his puny reserves, in a manner agreeable to tactical and strategic practices that harmonized with what the military world in general had expected. Some of Liman's spare troops were concentrated to the west of Maidos, but more of them were up at Bulair, about 65 miles north of Sid-il-Bahr, with no railroad to serve them. The Turkish commander had expected, of course, that Sir Ian Hamilton would make his major attack on the narrow isthmus which connects the peninsula with Thrace, and which for such contingencies had been fortified by the Turks across its entire width, about S^/^ miles, with the defense face north, instead of south, as is so generally believed, even by military men. The purpose of the forts and redoubts, and their intervening infantry positions, was not to hold back an enemy in possession of the peninsula from advancing into Thrace and on the capital, but to protect the coast batteries along the Dardanelles against attack from the rear. Liman von Sanders Pasha realized fully that the successful occupa- tion by Allied troops of almost any point along the shores of the Gulf of Xeros might develop into a far greater problem for him, and for Turkey, than the eiTective landing at Sid-il-Bahr and Ariburnu. It meant at the very least a cutting-off of the peninsula by land, and the placing in jeopardy of the line of communication with Germany, the Constantinople- Sofia railroad line. True enough, an advance of the Allies on the Turkish A MILITARO-DIPLOMATIC MOVE FOILED 141 capital would have brought them up at the Tchataldja line of fortifications, no easy nut to crack for an expeditionary force that depended upon a long line of communication, but the effect of cutting the rail line from Berlin to Constantinople was something which both, the Turkish and the German general staffs, had to avoid. Militarily that would have been no especial loss just then, but the political effect would have been tremendous. Before entering upon a disquisition of the political motives behind Sir Ian Hamilton's instructions, I will complete the outline of the Gallipoli operation. With the landing accomplished, the Allies, French and British troops at Sid-il-Bahr, and the "Anzacs" at Ariburnu, engaged the Turks in a series of most murderous offensives. But the Atchi-Baba hill, and the Kodjatchemen Dagh, remained as far off as ever in August of that year. On the 6th of that month Sir Ian Hamilton began to throw his second expeditionary contingents upon the peninsula, especially at Suvla Bay, and for another few months the wearying position warfare on Gallipoli continued. In December and in January, 1916, the Allied forces on the peninsula were withdrawn, and thereafter the Dardanelles and its environments ceased to be a theater of war. Despite the fact that the great undertaking was prevented from being a debacle, as Turk and German hoped to make it. Despite the fine management shown in the retreat from the peninsula, the loss of prestige to the arms of the Allies was great. Such a loss had to be taken into consideration before the order for retirement was given, and had the political situation remained what it was in the winter of 1914-5 the British would have never consented to the abandonment of a plan that had cost them so many lives and so much money. The fact is that the danger of losing Constantinople and her water- ways to the Russians had subsided sufficiently to permit British statesmen to regard the war with Turkey a secondary matter. Russia was for the time being too busy with her disintegrating army, and with the bad fortunes of war, to threaten seriously the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles and the city between them. On the other hand, the entrance into the War of Bulgaria, on the side of the Central Powers group, had given the situation in the hinterland of Constantinople, the Balkans, a different character. Strange Diplomatic Bed-Fellows The decision of the Ottoman government to link its fate with that of the Central Powers had led to an awkward political situation between the members of the Triple Entente. War of some sort would have to be made upon a government which in the past had subsisted almost entirely 142 THE CRAFT SINISTER by the gmce and upon the good will of the Powers. To leave matters with a declaration of war was highly dangerous, and might give force to the fetwah of the Sultan, calling for a Holy War, which otherwise it would and did lack. The British government, especially, had to fear the consequences of ignoring the challenge of the Turkish government. The millions of Mohammedans under British rule and control were bound to keep a very close watch on what would happen in this fight between King George of Great Britain, Emperor of India, etc., their temporal overlord, and Sultan Mohammed Rechid Khan V of Turkey, Ghazi, Caliph, etc., spiritual head of Islam. The other side of this medal was not much prettier. The logical point of attack for British troops was not in the southern extremes of Mesopotamia, nor was Russia entirely satisfied with the case of necessity pleaded by the British in connection with the Suez Canal. What Russia wanted forthwith was the opening of the Dardanelles, so that her ships might take wheat to Great Britain and France, and materials of war to the Black Sea ports. That was sound enough, but for the British very poor policy. What Russia wanted more, though, was to set foot into Constanti- nople, so that she might actually have and hold what just then was nothing more than the substance of a treaty. It would not do, just then, for British statesmen to follow their tradi- tional policy of being the friend of the Turks, for the sole reason of keeping the Russian Black Sea fleet bottled up, and to the size which limitation of radius to a mare clausum imposes. To be sure at that moment a large Russian fleet would have been very desirable, as the Russian cruiser "Askold," attached later to the Dardanelles fleet, demonstrated concretely. But the British politician in office is generally a statesman for the reason that he must follow a traditional policy — drops into it as a matter of fact. The British empire today travels on the impetus and in the groove furnished by her great political leaders, and in this instance the momentum and channel were the exclusion in the future, as in the past, of the Russian from the Mediterranean. The Russian Black Sea war fleet was small because it was limited to a relatively small sheet of water, on the shores of which live weak neighbors. It had for military purposes no access to the high seas. There was no reason why the Russian Black Sea navy should have been larger than it was — indeed, there was no valid reason why it should have been so large. But with the Dardanelles in the hands of the Russian, things would have been entirely different. Possession of the Sea of Marmora would have given Russia the finest naval base in the world, and thereafter the Russian Baltic naval ports would have rapidly become a thing of memory. In that event, also. STRANGE DIPLOMATIC BED-FELLOWS 143 Great Britain would have had for rival in the supremacy of the seas not a Germany, that was poverty-stricken, in comparison with the reserve resources of Russia, but a state to whose population control of the Dardanelles would have been the signal for a united attempt to secure h^emony of much of the earth. A Russia that had Zarigrad on the Golden Horn for its real capital, would have needed no social reforms of a violent character. In the widening of the political horizon of their country, the Russian people would have found their liberation, while the realization of a dream of a thousand years would have implanted into the Russian the thing he never had — patriotism of the imperialistic brand. These were possibilities, nay actualities, which the British statesmen had to bear in mind. These men were indeed before the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand they might lose their Mohammedan empire, and on the other the Dardanelles, a waterway controlling, under the cir- ciunstances, the highway to that empire — the Suez Canal. Russia's Dream a Diplomatic Desire Let us see how the Russian government looked upon the case. The situation being what it was, that government decided to take off for always the irksome barriers across the entrance and mouth of the Bosphorus-Dardanelles channel. Sazonoff wanted much besides. When the British government saw his program it regretted for the first time that it had entered the European War "for the sake of Belgium." In London they actually gasped for breath. Sir Louis Mallet had been given no great welcome when he returned to his capital. Though he had done his best, some thought he should have done more, as is the lot of any "unsuccessful" diplomatist. The entrance of Turkey in the War had brought British statesmen face to face with a problem they had not counted upon a scant three months before. The Ottoman government was thought absolutely safe, and when it was shown that this was not so, the men in London were sure that a guarantee for thirty years of the integrity of the domain of the empire was all there was needed to keep the Ottoman government satisfied. It is barely possible that the Sublime Porte would have taken a thirty years' lease on life, instead of venturing existence at a single throw, though this is not highly probable under the circumstances. The Young Turk element was sure that the rehabilitation of their country had to be preceded by a radical change in its international status. With special privileges held by influential representatives and institutions from all parts of the world, not to mention the special concessions which the capitulations were, the leaders of the Turkish government contemplated the prospect •144 THE CRAFT SINISTER of national suicide with less perturbation than the slow strangulation of government and state and Osmanli race to which the foreigner-controlled reign of Abdul Hamid and his immediate predecessors had condemned Turkey. M. N. M. de Giers, the Russian ambassador, had been rather pro- German during the days that followed the assassination of the arch-duke. At any rate he had always been indifferent to the French and British diplomatists on the Golden Horn, following in this, perhaps, the inclinations of his father — the Russian minister of foreign affairs, who, together with Czar Alexander III, had opposed the alliance with France. During the negotiations on the thirty-years guarantee for Turkey, the younger de Giers had been more of an interested spectator than a participant. M. Bompard, the French ambassador, also, seemed incapable of furthering the scheme, though in his case it was rather a lack of ability that handi- capped the undertaking which the British ambassador was promoting. Be that as it may, de Giers took the stand, as he expressed it to a diplomatic acquaintance of mine, that, whatever might come of the offer made the Sublime Porte, one thing was certain: The status of the Dardanelles was bound to be a different one, after the War. It was this very statement which later caused so much anxiety to the Rumanian political group, headed by Senator Alexandru Marghiloman, and former Premier Peter Carp, of which more later on. Whether or no the Ottoman government knew the attitude of the Russian government and its ambassador at Constantinople makes little difference now. The fact is that the negotiations were cut short by the activity of Russian mine-laying ships near the entrance to the Bosphorus. The Turkish cabinet did not trust the advances of the Entente diplomatists, and had no reason to trust the Russian envoy, who, moreover, was not anxious to be trusted. The Russian government had made up its mind to get to Constantinople and the Dardanelles this time — make or break. The records of the Russian government show that up to the beginning of March, 1915, Sazonoff had no assurance that Great Britain and France would honor Russia's demands in and around Constantinople. It is shown in a telegram, No. 168, March 11th, 1917, sent to his government by Isvolski, the Russian ambassador at Paris, that a treaty between the Russian and French governments, concerning the claims of Russia generally, and those along the Dardanelles particularly, was not concluded until the year 1915, while from March 4th (new style), 1915, comes a memorandum handed by Sazonoff to the French and British ambassadors in which the intentions of Russia concerning the annexation planned by her government are outlined. Subject to modifications to be stated further on Russia wanted to wrench from the Ottoman empire — • RUSSIA'S DREAM A DIPLOMATIC DESIRE 145 "the city of Constantinople ; the western shores of the Bosphorus, Marmora Sea, and the Dardanelles ; Southern Frigia, to the line of Enos-Media ; the shores of Asia Minor between Bosphorus, the river Samara, and a point of Ismid Gulf to be determined later on; the islands in the Sea of Marmora, and the islands of Imbros and Tenedos." In addition to stating that the special interests of France and Great Britain in those territories were to be respected, the memorandum refers to the fact that Constantinople was to be recognized as a free port for the transit of merchandise not of Russian origin or destination, and that merchant ships were to have free passage in the straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles. Something more is said concerning British and French rights in Asia Minor, the preservation of sacred Mohammedan places, and the placing of Arabia under independent Mohammedan rule. For Great Britain the quid pro quo for all this was to be the inclusion within its sphere of influence in Persia of the territory known as the neutral zone. Not enough with that Sazonoff expresses himself in favor of separating from the Turkish Sultanate the Caliphate. Shorn of all verbiage the conditions which Sazonoff imposed, and which Great Britain and France accepted so reluctantly, mean that Russia would have been in complete control of the principal part of the Ottoman empire — Thrace as far west as the Enos-Media line, with the remainder west of that boundary ceded to Bulgaria, the city of Constantinople, Gallipoli and the Dardanelles, the Sea of Marmora and its islands, the Bosphorus and as much of Western Anatolia as Russia pleased. According to the program of the Russian general staff the Russian army was to advance across Anatolia, thence into Cilicia, and occupation would in that event have completed the annexation of all Turkey. For its western neighbor Russia in those parts would have had the Bulgarians ; for its eastern frontier on this southward expansion its own sphere of influence in Persia. In the South the Taurus range would have made a most practical military border, provided that Syria and Palestine had not been annexed; at the entrance of the Dardanelles, the islands of Tenedos and Imbros, not to mention the reefs known as the Tauschan or Rabbit islands, would have served excellently as the sites of the needed Russian Gibraltar s. If ; *?' "1 That the island of Lemnos is not mentioned in the memorandum is rather surprising, but that may not mean anything, seeing that the Tauschan reefs were also overlooked. With that much gone Great Britain would have been driven out of the Aegean anyway, so the ignoring of an island or two would not have mattered. Lemnos, moreover, could have been given to the Greeks, who in this classic bit of earth would have seen the physical 146 THE CRAFT SINISTER link that bound them to the Greater Russian empire — the Russia mare, which Sazonoff had in view. Of course, British statesmen trembled when they gave some sort of assent to this Russian program. What they had promised Russia could be snatched from the paws of the bear only by defeat, or by future political maneuvering — one of these was not to be invited, and the other lacked as yet the very room for its moves and countermoves. So we find that on March 18th — ^the fateful — Sazonoff informs his agent in Paris, Isvolski, that on March 8th, the French ambassador at Petrograd stated to him that the French government was taking "a most friendly attitude towards the realization of our desires * * * in connection with the straits and Constan- tinople," for which he instructed Isvolski to express to Delcasse his ap- preciation. The telegram continues: "In his conversations with you, Delcasse, even before, repeatedly expressed his assurances that we may depend on the sympathy of France, and only referred to the necessity of clarify- ing England's attitude, from which side he feared objections, before giving us more concrete assurances to the aforesaid effect." The excerpt speaks for itself. The italics are mine. There was a little negotiating after that, on the merest trifles, com- pared with the territories and interests that had been written over to the Russians. In effect the situation remained what it was. Sazonoff even succeeded in persuading his allied governments that it would be well to separate the Osmanli Sultanate from the Islam Caliphate, which was just as well as there was to be no longer any Turkey, when the Russian minister of foreign affairs was through with it. He was willing, however, to guarantee the freedom of pilgrimage to the Mohammedans that were to pass under Muscovite rule, which meant nothing, of course, considering that the Mohammedans of the Russian empire had enjoyed that privilege long before Sazonoff was born. As a shamming hair splitter the man was as exasperating it seems as an empire builder. Where Clarification Was Needed Such then was the status of Constantinople, her waterways, empire and government, when the necessity for military endeavor on a much larger scale arose. One would have thought that Russia would have offered a large army for this "realization" of her "desires." That much the Turkish government feared, for these things were not unknown in Stamboul. In fact I discussed them with Said Halim Pasha, the grand vizier, Enver Pasha, minister of war, and Talaat Bey, of the interior, long before a serious attempt was made to carry them into effect. It was WHERE CLARIEICATION WAS NEEDED 147 rather odd that in this instance taciturn diplomacy shouted its plans to the populace, or at least that part of the populace which takes an interest in such matters. There were two neutral diplomatic missions in Constan- tinople where I had no difficulty getting quite the latest turn and fashion in diplomacy. Now and then one had to exercise a little judgment in not mixing matters, but on the whole I had no trouble keeping well informed. There was some talk in March that the Russians intended landing a large army on the Black Sea coast of Thrace, near Media. As the result of this more Ottoman troops were withdrawn from the Caucasus and Mesopotamia than was wise, and the Ottoman Second Army, which also had been intended for use at the Gulf of Xeros was rushed northward overnight, with nothing but its cavalry contingents remaining in the Kuru Dagh for emergency purposes. But the Russians made no move in that direction. Instead came news that large bodies of British troops were being brought into the Mediterranean, landing in Egypt, on Cyprus, and o« the island of Lemnos, the principal bay of which, Mudros, was being converted into a general military base by the British and French. It seemed that the Russians were too much occupied with the Germans and Austrians in the Carpathians to care much just then for Constantinople and its environments. The Russian general staff had its hands full engineering maneuvers that kept much of the German army out of France — ^the only reason why the French government and certain elements in London had acquiesced into the ambitious schemes of Sazonoff. One had to spar for time, even at the risk of having a most refractious and gluttonous ally to deal with later on. That Sir Ian Hamilton did not land his forces on the shores of Thrace, Enos, if no other place, caused general excitement in Turkey, the Central Powers, and throughout the world. By doing that he would have cut off, as I have already stated, the Turks on Gallipoli, and severed completely their direct land route of communication between the peninsula and Thrace, no great calamity to be sure, since the Turks depended to within eighty per cent on transport by water — on the Dardanelles. But edging a little southward, as he would have been able to do, he would have gained absolute control of the entrance to the Strait from the north, where it joins the Sea of Marmora. Of course, the line of fortifications at Bulair was in the way, but that line he could have razed to the ground as completely as his supporting warfleet had razed the works at Kum Kale and Sid-il- Bahr, seeing that the positions were open to flankal fire, and did not have the support of other emplaced batteries. The case of the forts at Bulair differed in that respect in nowise from that of the works at the southern gate of the Dardanelles. 148 THE CRAFT SINISTER With the isthmus of Bulair in the hands of tht Allied troops, and with the entrance to the Dardanelles, opposite the town of Gallipoli, com- manded by British and French artillery, the Turks would have been obliged to supply their Third Army and the Third Army corps, the men of the coast batteries, and a few other organizations, over the worst roads imaginable. The only railroad line in Anatolia east of the Dardanelles, the Ancient Phrygia Minor, runs from Panderma to Smyrna, and comes nowhere closer than 90 miles to the contested waterway. Since it is but half the distance from Karabiagh to Dardanelles, no railroad transporta- tion of any sort would have figured in the efforts of the Turks to hold the Strait. Being familiar with the roads in that part of the world, and the requirements of an army, I may be pardoned for saying that these efforts would have been futile, in the absence of good roads and thousands of motor trucks. Instead of bringing that state of affairs about, and giving himself an excellent start for an advance into Thrace, Sir Ian Hamilton, selected to land at Sid-il-Bahr and Ariburnu for the purposes I have already re- ferred to — the taking of the Atchi Baba elevation and the Kodjatchemen Dagh. From these points of vantage, and there were others just as good, British long-range rifles and high-angle pieces w^ere to put a period to Turkish defense of the Dardanelles. After that the Allied fleet, composed six to one, of British and French battleships, was to steam to Constanti- nople, as it was hoped it would do in March of that year. But nothing came of this. The Turks and their German leaders realized what the reaching of any prominent elevations by the Allies meant and held on like grim death — doing themselves anything but a favor in the light of the general situation which later ensued. Nobody would have expected the British to hand over to the Russians two waterways, an inland sea of the greatest tactical importance, and a city like Constantinople. The British would have "internationalized" all of this gain, and "internationalization" in this case meant that the conditions imposed upon the Turk would have been extended in harmony with the British and French interests in Turkey, as Sazonoff said in his memo- randum, without giving it at all that meaning. Russia would have been as near the "realization" of her "desires" as she had been a year before, which was not any too close. Of course, the British statesmen, from whom Sir Ian Hamilton, ac- cording to rule and the findings of the British Dardanelles Commission, took his orders, were playing a very dangerous game, ae Sir George Buchanan knew only too well. To bilk the Russians in that manner would have led immediately to peace negotiations between the Central Powers and Russia, and these, as is well known, were launched several WHERE CLARIFICATION WAS NEEDED 149 times so far as court circles in Petrograd, Darmstadt and Berlin could do it. That a peace on this basis was not actually concluded is due to the fact that the interests of Russia and Germany also clashed in and about the capital of Turkey. Berlin-to-Bagdad had indeed become an idee fixe with the German Alldeutschen and expansionists, and into this scheme could not fit the control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles by the Russians. The two sets of expansion policies crossed one another at right angles in Constantinople and permitted no satisfactory modus vivendi. Clarification Is No Longer Needed Good luck was to play an important role in this highly critical situa- tion, and, as usual, it favored the British. The great drive of the Germans into Poland and Russia throughout the summer of 1915 left the Russian government no time to occupy itself with the landing of a large expedi- tionary force in Thrace. The Russian general staff had its hands full with problems nearer home. When it found time to breathe, it took stock of a state of affairs that left every balance in favor of the Central Powers. Its own army had been routed and badly disorganized on a retreat that left the Germans and Austro-Hungarians in possession of twenty times the territory the Russians had ever occupied in the countries of their enemies. Fortress after fortress, base after base, had fallen into the hands of the antagonist, and in the territory of the new front were not to be found the fine strategic railroad lines built by the money of French in- vestors, and which had served so well during the first advance. Elsewhere the outlook was just as gloomy. On the West Front things were stalmate and the War of Attrition was already on, wearing down both sides with fine impartiality. In the Balkan the spectacle was dis- heartening in the extreme. Bulgaria had joined the Central Powers, thereby opening the direct route from Berlin to Bagdad, and making possible, or at least less difficult, the complete crushing of Serbia, enfant gatee of the Russian government. Greece had refused to come to the assistance of Serbia, despite a treaty that provided for this, and in Rumania, the Marghiloman faction was still defying the Bratianu-Jonescu- Filipescu coalition, and was doing it successfully. The Italian army was bleeding itself white on the treacherous Carso, without getting anywhere, and on Gallipoli a sad chapter of the War was coming rapidly to a close. All summer long British and Anzac had given the Turks the fight of their history, and when fall came they were still on the ground they had first occupied. In some cases even ground had been lost. In the Caucasus and in Mesopotamia things were no better, and a little later Kut-el-Amara was retaken by the Turks. 150 THE CRAFT SINISTER '^ Instead of thinking much of Zarigrad on the Golden Horn, the Russian government and people were near distraction. Both of them were pa)ring the first instalment of the debt Sazonoff had heaped upon them in his mad foreign policy and later he gave up his office — favorite practice of ministers who have plunged their own people, and the world besides, into war and of a sudden feel the necessity of taking a rest — "getting from under" in American parlance. The good luck of the British statesmen in not having to cope with assistance from the Russians, across the Black Sea, was augmented by the rapid decline of Sazonoff, and so it came to pass that Great Britain and Russia did not have to end the War in favor of Germany in order to fight with each other over the possession of Constantinople, her territory, and her waterways. No matter how the War with Germany would have ended for Great Britain, she would have been the defeated had Russia actually carried out her program of expansion southward. Within two decades Russia would have had in the Sea of Marmora a fleet large enough to control the A^ean and the Mediterranean Seas, and with that would have been coupled the loss of control by Great Britain of the Suez Canal. To occupy the Turks and Germans at the Dardanelles and on Gallipoli was necessary and wise, but to do anything that would actually place Great Britain in a position of having to refuse Russia that which had been promised her would have been folly ; on the other hand there would have been no British statesman who would have dared to carry out the terms of the British-Franco-Russian entente in regard to Turkey. Viewed in the light of national biology the entente in question was Great Britain's death warrant. Small wonder that Delcasse had seen fit to refer "to the necessity of clarifying England's attitude" on the question. Her statesmen, after denying to themselves that the traditional in interna- tional relations is the natural tendency of peoples, had been seized by a panic, with the result that "autocratic** Russia forced from "liberal" Great Britain a concession which the latter could not ultimately live up to, and which she, therefore, intended contesting at a more favorable moment than pressure of the German armies just then left the British politicians. The British government had no reason to live up to the terms Sazonoff had insisted upon. Even the strong may be placed under duress occasionally, and in this instance the force majeure compelling Great Britain was not alone the strength of the Germany army, but the "desires" of Russia, the ally of the British — ^the same Russia, which for the culmination of her de- signs in the same direction had concluded with France, in 1893, an alliance calculated to put an end to British hegemony in Asia. In the light of the entente regarding the partition, and so far as Russia was concerned, the total annexation, of the Ottoman empire, it should be CLARIFICATION NO LONGER NEEDED 151 clear that the Turkish ministers took the only course that was open to them. That the Ottoman cabinet paid so little attention to the guarantees offered for the intregity of the empire need not surprise the world any longer, and with that vanishes the vapid talk by diplomatic propagandists who have insisted that Baron von Wangenheim was the evil genius of Turkey. What the intentions of Russia were has been shown, and how little these were calculated to benefit the world was demonstrated by the acts of the British, for, with all respect to the Russian people, we, who are more distinctly of the Occident, would prefer to pass under the rule of Great Britain rather than under that of a Romanoff Russia. There is one point to which I must hark back. I have said that the British fleet was to steam to Constantinople, together with a small French attachment, and that in this manner the "realization" of Russian "desires" was to be foiled. The question is permissible: How was this to be done? The presence of a large British fleet would have settled the problem at the start. The fact that some French vessels were to be in the Allied fleet in the Black Sea was some argument against the clamour that would have come from Russia, for, as the memorandum of Sazonoff admitted : "The French as well as the English government expressed their assent to the fulfilment of our desires in the event of a successful termination of the War and the satisfaction of a series of demands of France and England within the limits of the Ottoman empire as well as in other places." Even the diplomatically uninitiated will realise that the terms were very elastic and the possibility of interpretation large in these two categories of eventualities. There was only one thing to be avoided and that was actual occupation of any part of Thrace by Russian troops, and that the good fortune of war prevented. Whether or no fortune was equally kind in placing the Straits of Constantinople under the control of the British at the end of the Great War remains to be seen. Consequences of the Dardanelles Fiasco I had been the first to express the opinion that the Allied fleet would not get through to Constantinople, and that the landed forces of Great Britain and France would not fare any better. Counting upon the renewal of the stock of ammunition in the Turkish coast batteries, and having seen what little actual damage had been done to the emplacements along the Outer Dardanelles in an action that cost the Allies three very good ships, and put six others out of commission for some time, I concluded that an attack on the strait would not be repeated so long as the War was young and every battleship a great asset. 152 THE CRAFT SINISTER I did not understand the full complexity of British-Russian interests at that time, to be sure, but was for all that far from inclined of accepting the advanced aspect of the case without a healthy amount of skepticism. The dispatches I had written had attracted the attention of the Ottoman and German authorities, with the result that officers who were my superiors in matters of technical knowledge wanted to hear more of my views. To my great surprise I discovered that I was almost the only person in Constantinople who held that the British and French would not renew the attack by water again, but would synchronize the next offensive with a landing of a large expeditionary force — in the Gulf of Xeros. The case is of no special import except in so far as it shows that I was with the rest of the world mistaken in the latter assumption. Already in June, 1915, 1 wrote several dispatches in which I indicated that ultimately the expedition on Gallipoli would end in withdrawal by the Allies. One of these, I remember, caused a United States military publication a great deal of mirth, but the laugh was on the other side six months later. If Sir Ian Hamilton had set out to find the worst terrain for his troops he could not have done better than at Sid-il-Bahr, Ariburnu and Suvla Bay* Almost any point along the shore of the Xeros Gulf would have been infinitely better. But it seems that the statesmen at home did not allow him too much room for picking suitable landing places. It has always been bad policy to give a military operation a political objective, apart from the ultimate aim of decently conducted wars — the re-establishment of peace as quickly as possible with a maximum of credit to oneself and a minimum of injustice to the vanquished. Developments at the gates of Constantinople were to have their effect in the Balkan countries. iAji interview I had with the Bulgarian premier, Dr. Radoslavoff, in February of the same year, had caused me to look with suspicion upon the assertions of the Allied governments that ultimately every Slav race would fight in their camp. Dr. Radoslavoff was rather unfriendly to the Serbs in his remarks, and did not seem to care who knew it. At any rate, he gave me permission to use everything he said, and my dispatch was not questioned by the Bulgarian authorities, which was not likely, however, seeing that no "preventive" censorship existed at that time. Thus warned I was forearmed against the many silly rumors that were set adrift in Constantinople by the Greek and Armenian sympathizers of the Entente. The first report concerning Bulgaria that interested me at all seriously was one which had it that Bulgaria and Turkey were coming together in connection with some matter affecting the railroad line Swilengrad — Kuleia Burgas — ^Dimotika, which the Bulgarians had to use in order to CONSEQUENCES OF THE DARDANELLES FIASCO 153 reach the port of Dedeagatch. The Hne in question was as far as Kuleia Burgas, a part of the Sofia-Constantinople trunkline, and from thereon a division of the branchline to the Bulgarian port named. Between Swilen- grad and Dimotika it ran then on Turkish territory and this the Bulgarians had found rather vexatious. Since the Turkish government had no reason of its own to get rid of the lines in question, the report that it intended ceding it to Bulgaria, and was willing to make some other border "rectifications" at its own expense, the remarks of Dr. Radoslavoff, to which I will come back further on, began to have a new meaning to me. In August of 1915, the negotia- tions were completed, and after that entrance into the war by Bulgaria on the side of the Central Powers seemed certain to all who had followed developments. Mr. Koulocheflf, the Bulgarian minister in Constantinople, had taken a hand in the negotiations, of course, but was no great admirer of the sudden rapprochement of the two countries, which the agreement concern- ing the border rectification represented. He took the view of the Bulgarian Nationalists — men of the Guechoflf type — who felt that it was the duty of Bulgaria to stand by Russia through thick and thin. For the Turks Mr. Koulocheflf had little use, and of their military capacity he was ever unconvinced. I remember having a conversation with him on the prospects on Gallipoli. The number of Turkish dead and wounded he mentioned was so great that I had to wonder how a man in his position could believe such a fable. He was also of the opinion that before very long the Allied forces would place themselves in possession of the peninsula and that the taking of Constantinople was then a matter of days. I took particular pains to set Mr. Koulocheflf right on these points, and did not earn his appreciation therefor. To Mr. Koulocheflf, as to a good many other Bulgarians, it seemed at that time that their country ought to take arms on the side of the Allies. The imminent possibility of having Russia for a neighbor who would not be satisfied with an all water route to Constantinople, but who, as strong imperial states will do, would find highly desirable the direct rail connection to the shores of the Bosphorus, did not seem to bother these Bulgarians. Such has ever been the case when in diplomacy senti- ment takes the place of the practical things that constitute the necessities of nations and individuals alike. Idealism of any sort is a condiment that renders even more unpalatable the sorry broth of international relations cooked by the diplomatists. IX BULGARIA VERSUS SERBIA TURKEY had entered the War in self-defence ; Bulgaria was to do the same presently. The governments of the two countries were face to face with a situation that could be solved in no other manner. They took refuge to the ultima ratio, because they were driven to it. Vital factors in national life — national existence in the case of the Turks; the Serbian danger in that of the Bulgarians — ^had become the forces in crises that meant going to war with either of the two camps of Europe. It is difficult enough in times of peace to take matters out of the hands of the diplomatists, once they have made up their minds to straighten them out, according to their wishes ; it is impossible to make them release their hold of a case in times of war. Both sides, then, have something to gain and after a tug of war of wits one of them has it its own way. That had happened in Constantinople. It was to take place again in Sofia. The Turks had gone to war when the harvest of 1914 was in, and the Bulgarians did the same when the crops of 1915 had been housed. In the Balkan especially men do not go to war at any other time, as a rule. Agricultural countries cannot afford to lose what is often their only substance. When I say that the political disturbances and wars of the Balkan peoples have been almost entirely of ethnological and demographic origin, I mean, of course, that they have been this more pronouncedly than in other parts, for wars, generally, have this as causal agent, even in such cases when purely political, dynastic or religious differences led to trouble. In the lives of men everything is contained in, and comes to be the cause of, the preservation of the self and propagation. It is so with races and nations. The fact that organized society has found the means to keep its human units from being constantly at each other's throat is, in fact, the best indication that a society of nations, based on justice and enlightened self-interest, is feasible and the best insurance that may be had for a sweeping reduction of the possibilities of war. The tendency to forget that life in the Balkans is still very elementary, and therefore closer to the biological actualities than elsewhere, has been the principal reason why the peoples in the peninsula and their problems have seemed so inexplicable. Those who believe that Serb, Bulgar, 154 BULGARIA VERSUS SERBIA 155 Macedonian and Albanian would prefer to come to blows over a difference that seems perfectly adjudicable, instead of composing it in an amicable spirit, forget that the primitive facts of life are the hardest to deny. We have an example of this in two wide-awake businessmen of the city, who will give their case into the hands of their lawyers for arbitration, while the farmer will hardly ever do that. It is nothing for a farmer to spend more money in the pursual of a claim to a rod of land than the subject of litigation is worth. It is so with nations everywhere. We do not wonder at that usually, but when the difficulty is shown up in the light of primitive necessity we must needs think it extraordinary, if we happen to be removed from the plane on which the quarrel moves. The population of the relatively very small Balkan peninsula is more diverse than that of any other area of similar extent. The Balkan in fact is inhabited by almost as many races as the remainder of Europe: Bulgar, Serb, Greek, Kutzo-Vlakh, Macedonian, Albanian, Italian, Turk and Rumanian, with many other divisions possible if one should set out to do it. For instance, the Serb may assert that the Croat is a Serb also, yet I have known many Croats who denied that, answering the claim of the Serb with the statement that to be a Southern or Jugo-Slav was in itself no proof that one was a Serb. The Slovene may do the same thing, as may the Bosniak, the Dalmatian and the Montenegrin. The Southern Wallachian, or Kutzo-Vlakh, certainly is no Serb, as some would have him. If related at all to any of the people now on the Balkan, he is the cousin of the Rumanian. On the other hand, the Bulgar has claimed, and the Macedonian has by his conduct admitted, that these two belong together. To meet that argument it has been asserted that the Bulgar was not a Slav at all, but of Turanian extraction, to which may be given the retort that the Macedonians, numbering about one and one-half millions, are at best a mixture of the race now known as Bulgars, and Albanian, Greek and Serb elements. It is not my plan to enter here the maze of ethnology which the population of the Balkan peninsula forms. Volumes and volumes, veritable libraries, have been written on this subject, and while the propaganda of Serb and Bulgar alike may easily mislead us, the fact is that impartial observers have generally agreed upon this : That the Bulgarians of today are not the pure Turanian tribe which invaded the peninsula about 679 A. D., being instead, as is natural, the product to some extent of the people whom they found in what is now Bulgaria and Macedonia, the Old- Slovenes. Though the Bulgars made themselves the masters of the country and formed the ruling caste for about a century they were already completely Slavicised in the middle of the Ninth Century, according to Byzantine 156 THE CRAFT SINISTER historians, who had no reason to love them. Moreover, it is not at all certain that the Bulgarians, were still a pure Turanian tribe when they appeared on the Balkans. They had for so long lived on the river Volga in what is now Russia that they either gave their name to the river or were called after it : Volgarians, a term which modification by Byzantine writers converted into Bulgarians. The Roots of ''Balkan" Diplomacy But even the Old- Slovenes were at that time no longer a pure race, if it is to be assumed that there is such a thing as racial purity. They had themselves arrived but lately, in 650 A. D., on the peninsula, driven hither by the pressure from the East — a pressure which, in the absence of definite data, has ever struck the historian as something uncanny, has, indeed, been likened by some to the instinct that guides migratory birds. At any rate the Old-Slovenes had settled in a country before them held, in the order named, by Dacians, Thracians, Kelts, Huns, Goths, Gepides and an older Slav tribe. There is no doubt that the Old- Slovenes and the Bulgars found in a country as mountainous as the Balkan peninsula, especially in the more inaccessible districts of the wild and densely wooded ranges, descend- ants of all of these people. While it has been possible to eliminate from plain and valley populations entirely, it has ever been difficult to overcome and dislodge them completely in the mountains. Indeed, we have in the Balkans a very striking example of this in the Albanians, a fairly pure type of Illyrians, who at one time inhabited the western parts of the peninsula entirely. Another example of this are the Kelts, who, after having been displaced by the pressure from the East, continued their migration westward and strewed the Alps with their racial remnants, where we find them today, and finally landed as far West as conditions permitted — in extreme Western France and the British isles. The Bulgarian of today, then, is a composite predominantly Slav, speaking the language of the Old-Slovenes, which statement may be supplemented in all prudence with the remark that the early culture and literature of the Slavs, anywhere, was of Bulgarian origin. The alphabet of the Russians, and until quite recently that of the Rumanians, is the Kyrillika, an adaption of the Greek letters to the phonetic requirements of the Slav, more especially, the Bulgarian, language. Two Bulgars, the Bishops Kyril and Methode, are the inventors of this alphabet. The Serbs and Croats, or Serbo-Croats, seem to be a race that under- went no such viccissitudes. A Slave race originally, they assimilated or displaced the people they found in the northwestern parts of the peninsula, THE ROOTS OF "BALKAN" DIPLOMACY 157 and were not molested by the Turanian invaders, who later gave their name to the country known as Bulgaria. Whether or no the Serbs were of immediately the same stock as the Old-Slovenes is not known, but the closest relationship existed. There is also the fact that the two tribes invaded the Balkans almost simultaneously, with the Serbs a few years in the lead, so far as final settlement is concerned. How the Croats came to be so closely linked with them is not known reliably. At any rate for centuries they lived together in such harmony as the political aspirations of the Serb element permitted, and later separated somewhat on account of religious divergence. The Serbs remained Greek-Catholic, the Croats embraced the Roman-Catholic faith, and most of the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, elected to become Mohammedans. The Serbo-Croat race inhabits today, starting in the North, Slavonia, Syrmia, the greater part of Dalmatia, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Northern Macedonia. I must in this connection draw attention to a map, issued by M. St. Stanoievitch, professor of Serb history at the University of Belgrade, and D. J. Derocco, a Serbian professor of geography. The map in ques- tion has been circulated broadcast for the propaganda purposes of the Serbian government, and was given to me by one of its agents for my own enlightenment in 1915. I mention this fact, together with the map, because it caused me to take a closer interest in the demographic problems on the Balkan. For the sake of peace in the future, I must hope that this perversion of the engraver's art did not influence the members of the Peace Conference at Paris. I have defined the actual limits of Serbo^Croatia above. The best authorities agree that the districts named are inhabited by Serbs and Croats. The authors of the map in question go much further, after including, for the convenience and weight of argument, the Slovenes and their territory, into their scheme. For the sake of those whom such matters may par- ticularly interest, I will trace here what Messrs. Stanoievitch and Derocco think Serbo-Croat- Slovene territory. After having laid its boundary on a map, the observer will all the better understand why Bulgar and Serb came to blows in 1915. The map was already out and excited the Sofia Foreign Office, the government, and the people as nothing could have done. There are some varieties of propaganda that are a direct provocation of war, and this is one such instance. The limits of Jugo-Slavia, I will call it that, though the map leaves us to infer that the limits are those of Greater Serbia — the Serbia mare, run as follows: Along the eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea, without regard for Italian claims, from the mouth of the Isonzo to the mouth of the river 158 THE CRAFT SINISTER Drime, thence to the Proclevitie Mts., Pachtrick Mts., Babachnitza Mts., Horab and Tablanitza Mts., Lake Ochrida, Galitchitsa Mts., Lake Prespa, Neretchka Mts., Nitche Mts., Hoyouf Mts., Blatetz Mts., Lake Doiran, Belasitza Mts., around the Strumnitza district, to follow the crests of the Osgovia Mts., along the old Bulgaro-Serb border, then along the Danube as far west as Moldawa ; thence into Hungary and Austria, from Oravitza to Tchakovo, Nadjlak, Mako, Szegedine, Seksarde, Baroese, thence to a point immediately south of Velika-Kagnija, to St. Gothard ; thence into Austria north of Marburg in the Carinthian Alps, to Klagenfurt, Villach, along the river Drava, south again into the Carinthian Alps, whence it enters Italy near the town of Pontebba, to approach the banks of the Tagliamento, and finally to continue in a slight southeasterly direction to the mouth of the Isonzo. There seems to be no reason why a Serbian government under Pashitch, should not emulate the example of the Russian government under Sazonoff. So it would seem. Yet the fact is that such intemperance will not serve the peace of the world. In this instance it was directly responsible for the war between Serbia and Bulgaria, and a further expansion of the War of Europe. The claims of the map in question had the backing of the Serb government. They could not but fan into flame the animosity between the two peoples, for in addition to the great boundaries drawn the map shows zones — clairsemie — as the two authors put it, in which the Serbo-Croat race was more or less scattered, according to admission. The first of these zones takes in much of Albania, eastern Epirus and northern Greece, without paying the slightest attention to the presence of some 160,000 Kutzo-Vlakhs located along the actual borders of Albania, Macedonia and Greece, and this in a country very thinly populated. The third seems like an annextion of the Strumnitza district, which, as I happen to know from personal observation, is peopled exclusively by Bulgars, Macedonians, Turks and Gypsies. Zone ntunber four includes the better half of the Banat, including the city of Temesvar, the fifth and sixth zones lie immediately north and south of the Hungarian capital, Budapest, where some Croats are to be found as immigrants, engaged in gardening mostly. The seventh zone clairsentSe comprises most of the Hungarian comitats of Baragna and Chomodje, and the eighth and last claims, for the Slovenes, the comitats of Vaghe and Choprone and Lower Austria between "Viener Naichtate,*' as Wiener Neustadt is naively spelled and a point on the Danube halfway between Vienna itself and Marchegg. To the authors of the map it seems to have made no difference that Greater Serbia would have annexed every Italian along the shores of the Adriatic, Albanians, Kutzo-Vlakhs, every Macedonian, Greeks, Old- THE ROOTS OF "BALKAN'* DIiPIX>MACY 159 Bulgars, Rumanians, Magyars, and German Austrians, and that in doing this it would have given rise to a series of "irredentas" that would have kept Europe in turmoil for centuries. Such is geography as the hand maiden of political propaganda and diplomacy. SazonofiF's Policy Toward Bulgaria The Treaty of Bucharest, 1913, of which Sazonoff was the evil genius, despite his obviously Bulgarophile telegrams to his Serbophile minister at Belgrade, M. Hart wig, that he use his influence with Pashitch for the securing of better terms for Bulgaria, had left the Bulgars in a bitter mood. Among the things which the Bulgarian does not possess, in common with his Slav cousins, is the light-heartedness and sense of humor, which, coupled with a strong tendency toward day-dreaming and easy surrender to the supposedly inevitable, have made Slav government throughout Europe anything but agreeable. The treaty in question deprived the Bulgar not only of what he had fought for in the Balkan War, but it deprived him of territory of his own besides, the major part of the Dobrudja, which Sazonoff, as guardian angel of Bulgaria, gave to the Rumanians for their military excursion in the direction of Sofia. It must not be supposed that the Bulgarians were the angels they made themselves out to be. Far from it. I have followed their line of march in Thrace on the highways from Usiinkoprii to Kazan and thence to Bulair, and happen to know that a great deal of wanton destruction was practiced to the detriment and eradication of the Turk. For that at least I did not have to take the statements of the inhabitants. The ruins spoke for themselves. Since Turk and Bulgar have an architecture of their own for dwelling purposes, I had no difficulty observing that the Bulgarian army set afire only the houses of the Turks, and left those of the Bulgarians untouched. I was able, in that manner to ascertain that the population of Thrace, of Bulgar origin, was a very large one, after the Turks had been driven out by arson and pillage. The Bulgarians also wanted just a little more than was their due. Thrace was to be theirs as far as the Enos-Media line, upon which line Sazonoff later fixed for his own boundary in "Frigia," as says his memorandum. Southward and eastward they wanted the country as far west as the right bank of the Struma river, that is Seres, Drama and Cavalla, in Old Thessaly, and Macedonia was to be joined to Old-Bulgaria. Bulgaria's claims were honored only in part by the Treaty of Bucharest, and to Rumania she had to cede a part of the Dobrudja — the best part, naturally. The Macedonia of today is but a fraction of the Macedonia held by 160 THE CRAFT SINISTER Alexander of renown and his father, Phillip. Authorities agree in the main that it is that part of the Balkans which lies within the Karadagh mountain range, the frontier of Bulgaria, the river Mesta, the Aegean Sea, the Greek boundary, and the crests of the ranges of Shar, Grammus and Pindus. The district is now inhabited, to the number of roughly 1,500,000, by a mixed people of predominantly Bulgarian origin, with an admixture of Serbs, Greeks and Albanians, surrounded on all sides by a sort of racial twilight zone, in which the Bulgarian Macedonians finally disappear. The natural result of this is that it would be extremely difficult to draw a demographic line, or boundary, that would please everybody. To the claims of the inhabitants in Southern Macedonia, the Serbs had not been able to raise great objections at the preliminary peace con- ference in London. These people, it seems, wanted to join Bulgaria, as I was told by one of their distinguished comitadje leaders. Colonel Protogeroff, who later commanded a Bulgarian division against the troops landed by the Allies at Salonika. But it was different with the Macedonians in the northern parts of the district, who also were eager to join the Bulgarian kingdom. The Serbian government contested their claim, and held that the site in question, the districts of Uskub and Tetovo, had always been a part of Old-Serbia. The district then became known in diplomatic parlance as the sone contestee, while the remainder of Macedonia was labelled zone incontestee. These two zones were to become the principal bone of contention just before Bulgaria's entry into the European War. It being impossible to apply the yardstick or thermometer to the quality of effort and degree of success of armies that are allied in war, the Serbs had let it be known that they themselves had defeated the Turks, and driven them out of Albania, Macedonia and the country along the Aegean shore. The Greeks claimed most of the remaining credit, and so it came that Bulgaria found not the necessary support in world public opinion in order to retain what her troops had occupied, among this much more of Thrace than was in the end awarded. The diplomatic stage, moreover, had been set against Bulgaria. Yet the fact is that the Bulgarian mobilization of 1912 reached the total of over 600,000, while the casualties were about 93,000, a shockingly high percentage. The Serbian and Greek forces and losses were as one to three in this. Without wishing to question at all the efficiency and the motives of the Serb and Greek leaders, the fact remains that the Bulgarians did a good sixty per cent of the fighting, and her Allies forty per cent together, if it be possible to reduce so controvertible a thing to definite quantities. As will happen when so infallible an institution as a General Staff takes to figures, the quality of the Turk as soldier had been sadly under- SAZONOFF'S POLICY TOWARD BULGARIA 161 rated, and so it came that Bulgaria, instead of being able to conclude the war with the army she was to employ in co-operation with her Allies, had to actually treble it, while Serbia increased her contingent only from 150,000 to 201,115. That figure alone proves who fought and won the Balkan War. The Bulgarians thought that their grievances against the Serbs ought to be presented to Czar Nicholas, as arbiter in the case of the contested zone. But Nicholas was not Alexander II, who had made the liberation of the Bulgars a fact. He was following more or less the example of his father, Alexander III, who cared little for the waif in the Balkans, and was very much put out when Eastern Rumelia was joined to Bulgaria in 1885. It seems that the czar resented very much that one of the provisions of the San Stefano Treaty should have been carried into effect without his specific permission. The father of Alexander III was one of the high-contracting parties to this agreement, and his son might have been consulted by Bulgaria, in all propriety. The fact was, however, that the foundling state in the Balkan was growing up, and that its government began to feel at home a little. The czar gave vent to his peevishness by ordering home all the Russian officers serving in the Bulgarian army, at a time when attack on Bulgaria by Serbia or Turkey, or both, was not entirely out of the question. This was the first rift in the lute of Russo- Bulgarian relations, which in the past had been those of mother and child. Prince Alexander of Battenberg, a favorite of Alexander II, had been installed at Sofia as ruler, under a Turkish suzerainty that was barely more than a name. When the successor to the Czar Liberator gave Bulgaria to understand that in the future she could not count on Russia, the resent- ment of the Bulgarians even affected the reigning prince. A conspiracy among Bulgarian officers resulted in Prince Alexander's kidnapping and removal to the nearest Russian town, Reni on the Danube. Saner elements in Sofia started a counter move and a little later the prince was back, to find, however, that his position was untenable. He appointed a regency and departed. Bulgaria's Independence Displeased Czar There were those who felt the necessity of coming to terms with Czar Alexander, and the throne being vacant, they proposed that it should be occupied by Prince Waldemar of Denmark, brother of the Russian empress. But the prince declined, as Bulgarians have insisted, at the instigation of the Russian emperor, if the refusal of consent could be called that. The following year Prince Ferdinand of Coburg was 162 THE CRAFT SINISTER offered the throne and accepted. Russia, however did not recognize him until 1896, when Czar Nicholas was prevailed upon to do that, on the condition, however, that Prince Boris, the heir-presumptive, be re-baptized to the Greek Catholic Church, having up to that time been a Roman Catholic, as was his father and family. The assassination of King Alexander of Serbia and his queen, Draga, in 1903, which put the Austrophile Obrenovitch family of Serb rulers out of the way for the benefit of the Karageorgevitch dynasty, opened a new chapter in Balkan history. King Peter of Serbia did his best to cultivate good relations with St. Petersburg and after a while got sufficiently into the good graces of Czar Nicholas to get from him an annual stipend, such a donation having in the past been accepted from the Austro-Hun- garian government by Kings Alexander and Milan. Thereafter in all matters of hostile contact, and there was little friendly contact with Bulgaria at any time, the Russian government sided openly with the Serbian government. Friction ran from the appointment of bishops to opposition in Russia and Serbia to the establishment of complete independ- ence from the Ottoman government for the Bulgarians, effected finally in 1908, as an incident to the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by Austria-Hungary. The vassalage to the Turks had been a very light burden, indeed, but there was no reason why the Bulgars should not throw it off. Isvolski had been tricked into acquiescence to the annexation by Austria-Hungary of the last two quasi-Ottoman provinces along the border of the Dual Monarchy, but the two promoters of this expansion coup. Counts Aehrenthal and Berchtold, had also arranged it with Ferdinand of Bulgaria, to do whatever he could to draw a red herring across their trail. Ferdinand, therefore, said himself loose, forever and always, from the Turkish Sultanate, promptly disconcerted European diplomacy generally, and later was made a "czar" himself, that being his official title as king. To the real czar of the Slav world, Nicholas II, that was no mean affront. Bulgaria had taken the second step in her national up-building without paying much attention to what St. Petersburg throught of it, and again a Romanoff was peeved. So it came that Sazonoff, while supervising the making of the terms of the Bucharest Treaty of 1913, was not in any way friendly to the Bulgars. He did, indeed, send a few telegrams to the Serbian government in which the cause of Bulgaria was espoused. But it must be borne in mind that the oldest trick of diplomacy consists of that. M. Hart wig, the Russian minister at Belgrade, had his own instructions, and M. Pashitch also knew how these appeals to reason were meant. To make a long story short, the peace treaty in question left Bulgaria not only without some territory she coveted unjustifiedly, but without much to which she really BULGARIA'S INDEPENDENCE DISPLEASED CZAR 163 was entitled on ethnological and military grounds. To the Serbs she lost Macedonia, to the Greeks, Seres, Drama and Cavalla, and to the Turks, Adrianople and much of Thrace, while the Rumanians amputated her of the fattest part of the Dobrudja. These claims must be given a little more attention. That the Mace- donians wanted to join Bulgaria is established beyond cavil. In their case it was with the Serbs merely a question of admitting whether or no the inhabitants of Uskub and Tetovo were Macedonians. That could have been established easily enough, and none could have done it better than the Russians. After all it is no insuperable task to establish the identity of the inhabitants of two districts. But the Russians, favoring the Serbs, did not want to know whether the people of Uskub and Tetovo were Macedonians or Serbo^Croats. It was their intention that Serbia should keep all of Macedonia, if at all possible, and Sazonoff saw to it, in spite of a rather active and well-directed opposition of the Austro-Hungarians, that Serbia received all she wanted. Mention must be made here of the fact that Germany was still playing the game of Russia and opposed her ally, Austria-Hungary. Sazonoff also wished to be on good terms with the Greeks, and for that reason his delegates opposed the annexation by Bulgaria of Seres, Drama and Cavalla, being backed in this instance by the protests of nearly the entire convention, and again by the Germans, who felt that something had to be left to the brother-in-law of Emperor William. Nor was the Bulgarian claim any too strong inherently. The Greek population east of the Struma is fairly numerous, and to merely barter people from one government to another does not make for peace. What the exact proportion of Greek to genuine Bulgar in those parts is I am not prepared to say for the reason that I do not know. That Russia should object to the annexation of all of Thrace, as far as the Tchataldja line for fortifications, to the very gates of Constan- tinople, figuratively, was very natural. Had the Bulgarians been cautious enough not to include the ports of Gallipoli, on the peninsula, Rodosto and Silivria, the entire Marmoran shore of Thrace, in fact, into their terms, prospects might have been better, even though a city like Adrianople, founded by Hadrian of Rome, and elevated to the dignity of capital by the Osmanli, was to be snatched away from the Turks. Upon what ethnological basis the Bulgars rested this demand I fail to see. After all not everything in Thrace was or is Bulgarian. Long before the annexa- tionists of Sofia were thought of, Thrakian, Hellene, Macedonian, Roman, Byzantine and Turk had labored there, built the city, plowed the fields and raised children, whose descendants can not have as completely dis- appeared as the Bulgarians would have us believe. 164 THE CRAFT SINISTER But the amputation of Dobrudja was a crime. The Rumanian govern- ment, when the Balkan war was not yet weeks old, gave the Bulgarian government to understand that for the purpose of bettering communication with a Rumanian port on the Black Sea, it wished to enter into negotiations of a boundary-rectification character. When in the Balkan they speak of such a thing, war is never far oflF. Bulgaria paid little attention to the request, but when the falling-out between the Serbs and Bulgars was there, Rumania promptly took what she wanted and a little more, of course — on the plea, made afterwards, that in the Dobrudja there were Vlakhs who had fared poorly under the Bulgarian government. There were some 600,000 other Vlakhs, the Kutzos, further down in the Balkans, where the frontiers of Serbia, Greece and Albania meet, who needed such solici- tude much more. But for these Rumania did not speak. Serbia, on the other hand, made no mention of the Bulgars — ^the Shapes — that had been traded to her by the transfer of Pirot and Vranya, in 1878, in exchange for Novipasar, which the Peace treaty of San Stefano had promised Serbia. Bucharest Treaty a Mare's Nest It is not surprising that this shabby deal, for which SazonoflF was wholly responsible, did not increase in the Bulgarian his love of Russia. The Treaty of Bucharest made a bad dent in the old superstition of the Bulgarian peasant that a bullet fired at a Russian by a Bulgarian, or vice versa, would never find its mark. Bulgaria really had a democratic and fully representative government — liberal thought and institutions — that even went so far as to make the national legislature, the Sobranye, a single body, with no senate to interfere with the acts of the people's delegates. Virtually every able-bodied man in the country had been in the field against the Turks, and, now that the fruits of victory were being snatched away from Bulgaria, everywhere the question was asked why this should be so. M. I. E. Guechoflf, who had been the first premier during the Balkan War, as the head of a coalition government composed chiefly of the Nationalist and Progressive parties, had to retire in favor of Dr. Daneflf, who at the next election was succeeded by Dr. RadoslavoflF, heading the Liberal, National Liberal and Young Liberal parties. General SavoflF, the able Bulgarian officer, of whom so much was heard during the Balkan War, was relegated for having attacked the Serb army on the night of July 29th, 1913, without waiting for a formal declaration of war, and the Russophile element, generally, was driven out of office. But of adherents to Russia there was no great dearth even then. Dr. RadoslavoflF, to be sure, maintained his position, often by the weirdest of political moves, but he had a hard time keeping his coalition together. BUCHAREST TREATY A MARE'S NEST 165 It was composed, at the outbreak of the war between the Triple Entente and the Central Powers, of the parties above named, and of such mug- womps, political freebooters, and patronage-takers as he could attract and manage. These came from every one of the other parties in Bulgaria, to wit : Nationalists, still under M. Guechoff ; Progressives, under Theodor Theodoroff; Democrats, under Alexander Malinofif; Agrarians, under Stambulowski ; Radicals and Socialists. Political opinions varied from the statement of Dr. Daneff, who was in the Guechoff cabinet during the Balkan War and later premier, that: "With Russia we Bulgarians do not practice politics," meaning that the Bulgarians were one with the Russians, to the attitude of Ivan Momtschiloflf, vice-president of the Sobranje, who from the very first was the most ardent of the Germanophiles. To keep these extremes within the bounds prescribed by the neutrality proclaimed by the Bulgarian government when war broke out was no easy task. Dr. Radoslavoff had his hands full. Such was the situation when in February of 1915, I called upon the Bulgarian premier. I had spent some time in Bucharest, and watched political intrigue there. The efforts that were being made with money from all parts of the world that flowed in streams, were only too strong an indication that soon or late the war between the Central Powers and the Triple Entente would spread into other parts. I found Dr. Radoslavoff well in control, not only of the government but also the relations with Rumania, and above all, Serbia. He seemed to be a man whom nothing perturbed easily, as was shown when toward the end of the interview we came to discussing the matter of Macedonia. The premier said that since the control of Macedonia by Serbia some 300,000 Macedonians had come to Bulgaria. These people were welcome, of course, he added, but the trouble was that they were a great charge upon a population numbering only about five millions and none too well off in the first place. Dr. Radoslavoff proceeded to give me the details of this problem. It appears that the Serbian officials did everything possible to encourage emigration from Macedonia, and their program included such things as torture and murder, arson and rape, said the premier. The closing of schools and churches, the banishment of teachers and priests, and dis- crimination of an economic and political character were quite the least incidents in the plan of persecution which the Serb government was carry- ing out. Great stress was laid by the premier upon the fact that the Bulgars and Macedonians were "brothers" in everything two peoples can have in common, and that on this account the burden of Macedonian immigration would be borne, so long as possible. It could not be borne 166 THE CRAFT SINISTER for always, however. On that point, Dr. Radoslavoff was so final that I began to take notice. I asked him what steps the Bulgarian government had taken in regard to the matter. Dr. Radoslavoff replied that he had instructed his diplomatic representatives abroad to bring the conduct of the Serbian government in Macedonia to the attention of the Powers. But he feared, and rightly so, that for the time being the Powers were too busy making war to do much, if anything. H