UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT LOS ANGELES ROLF HOFFMANN ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA BOOKS BY BROUGHAM VILLIERS THE OPPORTUNITY OF LIBERALISM THE SOCIALIST MOVEMENT IN ENGLAND MODERN DEMOCRACY T. FISHER UNWIN LTD LONDON ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA BY BROUGHAM VILLIERS rp. j.s u n T. FISHER UNWIN LTD LONDON: ADELPHI TERRACE Firtt publithed in 1920 (All rights rsserved) PREFACE BEFORE this book leaves my hands I want to repeat the explanation given in the text for dealing specially with England, rather than with the United Kingdom as a whole. Scotland and England are so closely united, spiritually as well as politically, that it is hardly conceivable that either bond should ever be broken. For all that the qualities of each are so valuable that it would be a great misfortune if either ever lost its identity. This they are little likely to do in a world where it is to be hoped nation- ality will play a greater part than ever before. Had I been a Scotsman I would gladly have written a book on Scotland and the New Era, but I wish throughout to emphasize my position that not merely the United Kingdom but every nationality within it should think out the prob- lems of the New Era for itself, forming its associations whatever they are, even with its most intimate friends, in absolute freedom. Self- determination, in the most complete sense of the term, for England and Scotland is about the last thing in the world to lead to separation or unfriendliness between the two nations. 167570 CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGB I. INTRODUCTORY . . . .9 II. THE BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS . 30 III. CREATIVE REVOLUTION . . .51 IV. THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM . . 72 V. THE CAPITAL LEVY . . . 103 VI. EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA . . 137 VII. THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA . 167 VIII. PARTIES AND POLITICS . . . 191 IX. THE NEW PATRIOTISM . . .218 APPENDIX . 244 BLOW, winds of March ! and clear these leaden skies, Dissolve in driving showers the winter's snows ; Blow where, in leafless sleep, the woodland lies, Where the pale snowdrop grows. Blow ! winds of March, where yet the crocus hides Its coming wealth of gold blow warm, and fill With flowers the mossy hollow, where abides The frost-bound daffodil. Blow, winds of THOUGHT ! Dispel our winter's gloom, Blow with stern breath on tyranny and power : Let human life as doth the spring-tide bloom, And bring the PEOPLE'S HOUR. England and the New Era CHAPTER I INTRODUCTORY SIXTEEN years ago I published a little book entitled The Opportunity of Liberalism. It was written under circumstances in some re- spects similar to those of the present time. A Conservative Government was in office, sup- ported by a formidable majority, returned not long before for a second time on what was supposed to be the conclusion of a great war. The claims on which the Government had secured its majority had proved to be ill-founded, and pledges given to the electors had already been violated, while the victories of the Opposition at almost every by-election had shown that the people appreciated these facts. Though the war had been proclaimed at an end in 1900, the careers of De Wet and other guerilla leaders had made the claims to a final victory made after Paardeburg look ridiculous ; almost as much blood and treasure had been expended after the General Election as before it. Pledges freely 10 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA given to Liberal voters that their confidence would not be abused had been followed by reactionary legislation, by the Education Act of 1902 and by the "raging, tearing propaganda" of Tariff Reform. The Government had already lost its popularity, and though few saw how complete would be its defeat at the next appeal to the electors, it was becoming daily more certain that it would not be returned again. How similar in some respects is the position to-day ! The forces of reaction have changed their name : they are now a " Coalition," they were then " Unionists," but they are still true to type. Again they have appealed to the people for a mandate to secure peace, and again we have as yet no peace, but only " a sort of war " waged, in Russia and elsewhere, without the people being consulted in any way. Again the record of the Government is but one of broken pledges and unfulfilled predictions. The story of the by-elections is very similar, and points to an equal disillusionment of the people. Thus, on the surface, history appears to repeat itself; fundamentally, however, it may be doubted if it ever does. When differences of degree are great enough, they often become as vital as differences in kind. The Boer War, costly as it was, did not in any way threaten the stability of society ; it destroyed the Boer Republics and increased the National Debt, INTRODUCTORY 11 but it added little to the problems facing the Government of these islands, and hardly affected the rest of the world at all. The World War is a very different matter. Waged on three con- tinents and over the widest stretch of ocean, it drew into it the energetic youth of the world in millions ; costly beyond all precedent, it has flung into hopeless confusion the finances of nearly every nation engaged ; it has already brought down in revolution half the belligerent Governments, and threatens with similar revo- lution those that remain in existence. The difference is, I think, imperfectly realized even yet. After the Boer War there was an extensive revulsion of feeling in this country against the policy that had produced it, and the astonishing General Election of 1906 was the result. For more than seventy years no Government had ever received such a majority as that accorded to Sir Henry Campbell-Banner- man, and never had the Tory Party been so hopelessly discredited among the people. Looking back on the time, however, it cannot be said that there was anything inevitable about this. There was no tremendous crisis in the history of the nation. After the war, as before it, industry went on pretty much on the old lines ; no very great change had occurred in the general outlook of the people ; taxation was not increased to any intolerable extent ; it was still possible 12 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA to live within the framework of nineteenth- century civilization very much as people had been accustomed to live before the war. But, as a matter of history, the majority of the electors soon turned against the Govern- ment, and a new era of mildly reformist legis- lation followed. Certain inconsiderable changes were made in the law, and others were projected, in their effects not much more or less important than those that were carried out in the more actively liberal periods of the nineteenth century. After the first two Reform Bills, for instance, as important changes were made in a few years as any that happened from 1906 to 1914 ; while the measures of the late Liberal Government were not imposed upon them by any actual breakdown of the previous state of things useful as many of them were, it would not have been impossible to carry on the government of the country and preserve order without any of them. By their free choice the electorate turned out the Tories and put in a Government, which then selected for legislation the subjects with which they felt it most urgent to deal, and framed laws which in no way resembled " emergency " legislation. In fact, after the Boer War electors and politicians controlled things, in so far at least as they ever do so ; now, however, things are everywhere coming to control men. With the INTRODUCTORY 13 whole system of modern civilization breaking down under their eyes, revolutions have followed one another over half Europe ; " provisional Governments " have arisen and fallen, almost as rapidly to give place to others perhaps as ephemeral as themselves. Indeed, it may be said that little but " provisional " government has existed since 1914 anywhere. " Provisional " legislation to restore credit had to be sanctioned by Parliament in the first moments of the war ; Budgets are framed to deal with the emergency of the moment and to conceal the desperate prospects of the future ; " coalitions," which are essentially expedients for combining as many people as possible in a conspiracy not to think at all, are the order of the day. These things mean that thought is dangerous, the realization of fact is fatal, and the continuance of the old order impossible. Thus we have to deal with a state of things altogether different from that in existence when I wrote The Opportunity of Liberalism, The Socialist Movement in England, or Modern Democracy. The view point in these books was that of an evolutionist in an era of evolution ; the only possible standpoint for me to-day is that of one who would combine revolution with order in a time of revolution. I still believe that rebus sic stantibus most of what I have previously written would be valid, but in such 14 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA a totally changed condition of affairs everything is altered and the time has arrived for a thorough revision of work written in less critical times. To-day every one is compelled to be a revolutionist whether he will or no. Whether he be Con- servative, Liberal, or Socialist; whether he aim at reversing the work of centuries and destroying democracy, or whether he wish to complete it by establishing Socialism, in neither direction is it possible to proceed by the old, cautious methods of British politics. Political changes must more or less keep pace with the social and industrial changes which are the causes of them. The gradual development of modern society in time of peace, brought about by the progress of industrialism, the cheapening of printing, the spread of edu- cation and discussion led, much more than any action of statesmen, to the extension of the franchise and the growth of democracy. Politics followed rather than led the advance of the people. In the matter of the franchise, at least, the slowness of politicians was carried to dangerous lengths, as the Bristol riots of 1832, the Hyde Park disturbance of 1867, and the Suffragist disorders before the war suffice to show. The industrial organization of the people was perhaps more rapid, but it, too, only followed with halting steps the progress of industrial change. This, all the time, went on INTRODUCTORY 15 unhasting, unresting, shaping everything anew. As I argued in Modern Democracy, this gave the reformer the opportunity he desired, while imposing upon him conditions of progress not by any means to his mind. The Reaction throughout the century was always in retreat, never in disorder ; forced from one entrench- ment it retreated for a short distance to the next, making the progressive forces fight for every inch of the ground. To pursue the military analogy that comes so inevitably just now, politics have recovered their mobility, and with mobility has come the possibility, nay, the necessity, of far more rapid changes than before the war. In a dim way even the politicians feel this, and it is the secret of Mr. Lloyd George's success. Under ordinary conditions even the average member of Par- liament has a fair general idea of what ought to be done next. He may have no philosophy of politics, his reading of economics or history may be scanty, but he knows the general lines of his party's policy fairly well, and can distinguish which of a number of possible " leaders " has the strongest grasp of Conservative, Liberal, or Labour principles. The difference between the leadership of Mr. Asquith and of Mr. Lloyd George is the difference between a man of limited though coherent vision, and one who has fleeting glimpses of everything and vision of none. The 16 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA one is fixed at the centre of a narrow circle : the other moves round the circumference of everything and never reaches the centre at all. Mr. Asquith is a great Whig leader. It cannot be said that he has ever originated anything in politics ; too essentially Conservative ever to become reactionary, he seems by his very nature always to appear a trifle old-fashioned. In easy times he is hardly likely to make any serious mistake, even if he fails to initiate any striking reform. His premiership might readily have come to an early end in 1909 were it not for the fighting Budget of his most redoubtable colleague, for he has never persuaded the rank and file of the people to " trust Asquith " with the pathetic faith of the Liberal Party man. He is, however, entirely unsuited to times of rapid and unexpected change. He suffers from the fundamental defect which caused Mr. George Brandes to condemn the attitude of the Lake poets in the early years of last century, as compared with that of Byron and Shelley : he thinks of " liberties " as secured by the British Constitution, not of Liberty ; he is insular, not universal. Wordsworth, at least, of the Lake School never lost his love of freedom as he conceived it, but he raised no protest either against the Holy Alliance or the Tory reaction at home. The inspiration for Europe of Byron's work, and almost more of his death, INTRODUCTORY 17 is to be found in his defiant spirit, in the fact that he was utterly unlike Wordsworth or Mr. Asquith he could think outside British ideas. It is this defect in Mr. Asquith that gives Mr. Lloyd George his opportunity to succeed, not indeed in solving the problems of the day, but in ousting his former chief. There is probably no one who has less insight than Mr. George into what is really going on in the world : no one has less perception of fundamental causes ; no one is less fitted to provide a cure for any of the evils brought on by the war. But if he cannot understand causes, there is no one who has a quicker eye for the surface phenomena they produce. Both are buried, Mr. George probably far deeper, in Plato's cave, but Mr. George's eyes are always directed towards the opening of the cavern ready to receive the first impression of any shadow that flits across it. He thus knows everything only when the knowledge of it is common property, especially at home. He is aware that there is a railway strike on when the railways throughout the country are all held up ; he discovers that the policies of blockading Russia and exacting vin- dictive terms from the Central Powers were wrong when European civilization is going to pieces before his eyes. And whenever the con- sequences of any false policy, his own or that 2 18 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA of others, becomes manifest to all, Mr. George will have something to propose. True, it will be an expedient and not a remedy, but until some one arises who understands the root causes of current troubles and deals effectively with them, the man of expedients can always com- mand support Mr. George is admirably fitted to head a coalition ; he is himself a coalition. A coalition of parties is only possible among those who have no coherent ideas but only expedients. The proper leader for such a combination, hence, is one who has what I may call the " coalition mind," a mind in which all the passions and prejudices of the moment meet and are welcomed. The statesman when confronted with something he does not understand is silent and helpless ; to a politician of Mr. George's stamp this is an occasion for making a speech. For such a speech the public mind is prepared because the public is probably even more puzzled by the situation than the statesman. Neverthe- less, the public wants some answer, and in default of a good one will applaud the best that offers. Mr. George will never for a moment believe, still less admit in public, that he has no remedy available. He will fuss about a good deal, call somebody names, give something to those who clamour most loudly, and then plead an "important engagement "in Paris if the INTRODUCTORY 19 trouble has arisen in England, in Parliament if he is in difficulties abroad. But his remedy, whatever it is, will deal with effects, not causes ; before very long he will be called upon to deal with another crisis which he has not foreseen, which probably he has himself created. No matter. Mr. Lloyd George has remained in important office for more than fourteen years, longer than any other statesman of our time. Every other Minister who entered into office in 1905, and most of those who have joined with him since, have been held responsible for the mistakes of the Governments to which they have belonged, and have paid the penalty. For every mistake of each of these Governments Mr. George shares the responsibility, for a very large proportion of them he is mainly respon- sible, yet he is still in office and may possibly remain so until a new factor appears in politics, until a statesman or a party has arisen which really understands the tragic condition of the nation and civilization, and is prepared to deal effectively with causes and not merely pheno- mena. This no European statesman whose mind was fully trained before 1914 is at all likely to do. Help is not likely to come from any man or group that had anything to do with shaping the events that led up to the disaster of 1914. The new world must be shaped by new minds. Already we see abroad the evidence 20 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA of this in all the countries to whom the war has brought defeat in Russia, Austria, and Germany alike. But to no nation, unless it be the United States, has the war brought real victory : those who have prospered most in arms have only postponed the defeat that awaits them. It is a system that has been defeated, not either side in the great quarrel, and the victors in the battle have only earned for them- selves a respite and not a pardon. The French Revolution, it was said, like Saturn, devoured its own children ; the catastrophe of our age has begun by devouring its parents. The Romanoffs, the Hapsburgs, the Hohenzollerns have passed away from the scene, and the systems in which they lived and flourished have fallen in irremediable ruin. Among the Allies no such rapid collapse has occurred for two reasons, one of them obvious, the other perhaps even more potent. The glamour of victory has given to the Governments of France, Italy, and Great Britain an immense prestige, declining certainly every month since the armistice, but nevertheless very useful to the leaders in each nation. Victory, too, has enabled them to keep going the game of bluff in which all nations indulged before the war, and to hide from their peoples and probably from themselves the real position of their countries. In France this game of bluff has been carried to incredible lengths. INTRODUCTORY 21 It should be obvious that the Government of France is utterly bankrupt, more hopelessly so than that of Germany or even Austria. With its stationary population depleted by enormous losses among its young men, France seems far less likely than any other first- class Power to be able to recover from the war. Nowhere has there been greater reluctance to face the financial sacrifices which the war in- volved, nowhere have more fantastic devices been proposed for making other people pay it, and nowhere would failure to pay the interest on its debt bring ruin to so many millions of its own people. I hold it to be as certain as anything can be that no considerable indemnity for the costs of the war will ever be obtained by France or any one else. France, like every other land, will sooner or later be compelled either to repudiate its debt or to provide for it by some real scheme of direct taxation that will realize hundreds of millions of pounds each year more than has ever been raised before. The timidity with which the French Government have treated the problem of taxation from the beginning of the war until now, the pathetic way in which they continue to hold before the eyes of their people the hope of impossible indemnities from Germany indicate only too well what may be expected when at last the French people are face to face with the facts. 22 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA No Government of France, not that of Louis XVI, has ever been in such a hopeless position as the present one ; never have the French people had so many examples of revolution elsewhere before their eyes. If the success of Washington and the taxes of Necker could do so much, what consequences may that of Lenin and a demand for 500,000,000 a year produce ? Yet we ourselves are confronted with problems hardly less alarming. Our financial position is certainly better, and Mr. Lloyd George, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Mr. McKenna after him, made far better attempts to deal with the problem at the outset. Mr. Bonar Law was more timid, while Mr. Austen Chamberlain's device of making an apparently favourable balance by reckoning as income money obtained by selling off war material, and from the Excess Profits Duty, which may soon disappear, leaves for him or some future Chancellor of the Ex- chequer a position nearly as desperate as that of Continental Governments. Mr. Chamberlain's finance is a scandalous degradation of sound British methods. In truth, the history of our finance from the outbreak of war tends to show that while Mr. Lloyd George may make an energetic Minister when, and in so far as, he is controlled by a strong leader, he is himself an utterly incapable Prime Minister. He can never see more than one thing at a time. INTRODUCTORY 23 He can understand, at least superficially, the work of his department and can even infuse into it an unwonted energy, but he can never grasp the relation of one thing to another, so as to survey the field of politics as a whole. He is a very good servant, when he is content to be one, but a terribly bad master. His Budget at the beginning of the war may pass, though it was not heroic, but he has exercised no control whatever over finance since he left the Treasury. The menace of finance will be dealt with later, however, as well as those problems, the existence of which has been the cause of what is known as 44 Labour Unrest." Here it is only necessary to say that Mr. George's policy has been a mere hand-to-mouth one, destitute of any coherent plan whatever. Until industry has been brought to a standstill through a great strike, Mr. George says, or at least for it is hard for him to keep silence does nothing. When Labour troubles occur Mr. George makes a violent speech, calls the strikers ugly names, which does no good at the time and may do a great deal of harm afterwards, agrees to a compromise, and pro- claims himself a victor ! A third factor, as menacing as any other, calls for a little more consideration even at this stage. Up to 1914, in spite of some talk of nationalism, and much deep discontent among 24 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the smaller nations of Europe, there was, on the whole, a steady drift towards Imperialism throughout the world. All the Empires, except that of Turkey, tended to increase in area and become consolidated. Towards the general movement we here, in England, took up rather an inconsistent attitude ; our own Empire had grown more rapidly than any other, but at the same time there had developed within it a strong tendency to decentralization, in so far as the English-speaking portions of it were concerned. The more definitely national portions of the Empire were governed from Downing Street ; those which most nearly approached to ourselves in ideals and aspirations, in which, that is to say, any strong national consciousness was least likely to exist, governed themselves. Nor did the system appear unsatisfactory. India is so vast a collection of peoples that a distinct national consciousness was hard to arouse, and though, for a number of years past, one has been rapidly forming, the great Dominion was loyal and apparently content. Egypt was quiescent, while the English-speaking Dominions were enthusiastically loyal. Our faith in this general loyalty received strong confirmation at the outset of the war, one of the most remarkable things in which was the enthusiasm of the overseas Dominions who, with one consent, rushed to the help of the Mother Country. It seemed, INTRODUCTORY 25 therefore, as if the general drift towards Impe- rialism, at least of the British type, was to continue. It would be dangerous to presume upon this idea any longer. We cannot disguise from ourselves the fact that the whole general drift of the world is now in the opposite direction. Austria has fallen to pieces entirely ; Russia is shedding every part of her vast dominion which speaks a dialect of its own, which has a specialized economic or cultural character, or a partially detached geographic position. On the one hand, we see a greedy keenness to undertake " mandates " to control backward people ; on the other, the strongest reluctance among all peoples to recognize that they are too " back- ward " to control themselves. We have to face a general fissiparous tendency throughout the world, the exact opposite to the drift of things before the war. Curiously enough, very few people seem to realize that this has any relevance to the British Empire. The fact, obvious to all, that public opinion in Ireland has drifted from a concili- atory nationalism to an irreconcilable Sinn Fein might, one would think, have been warning enough against such easy optimism. There can be no doubt, however, that Indian nationalism has made enormous progress during the last few years, while Egypt is in virtual revolt. With regard even to the self-governing Dominions 26 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA things are not all so pleasant as people think, and, in Canada at least, the plea for a separate Republic has revived again. Two definite results of the war have prepared the way for this the general revival of nation- alities throughout Central and Eastern Europe and the destruction of the German Navy. The first of these necessarily exercises an infectious influence, bound to tell in the long run, but the second is a less obvious factor in the situation. It has frequently been said that the American Revolution was a consequence of the British conquest of Canada. So long as Canada re- mained in the hands of the French, a perpetual menace from the North and a centre of intrigues to prevent the advance of the Colonists towards the Mississippi, the thirteen Colonies, though they might individually quarrel with the Home Govern- ment, were never likely to combine together to throw off their connection with it. Wolfe's victory on the Heights of Abraham changed all this it was no longer a question of British or French rule, but of British rule versus inde- pendence. Hence the same men who helped to bring about the fall of Quebec fought later on by the side of Washington to drive out the English. European navalism especially in these latter days that of Germany may readily have played the same part. As long as Europe was an armed camp, the British Fleet was essential INTRODUCTORY 27 to the safety of the British Dominions. It is said that Charles II, on being appealed to by his brother to take more care to avoid danger of assassination, told him to have no fear : " They won't kill me, James, to make you King. I am safe so long as you are my heir." Foreign fleets, especially that of Germany, have hitherto played the part of James ; whatever might be the defects of our rule, ours was at least the most liberal Imperialism ever known. But now our " James " is dead, a momentous change which may have unexpected results. Separatist agitation can no longer be met by the fear of foreign invasion. The war has probably crippled Europe for aggressive purposes for generations. Separation from the Mother Country now only offers to the overseas Do- minions the tempting prospect of independence. They may not avail themselves of the oppor- tunity, but in view of the rapid growth of nation- alist feeling throughout the world, it is foolish not to face the possibility of them doing so sooner or later. As an Englishman, for my part, I would not sacrifice the independence of England for any Empire, however splendid, and I cannot feel certain other people may not come to have similar feelings for their own lands. Many Americans realized at the outset of the war that the British Navy was the strongest guarantee of the Monroe Doctrine ; it was also 28 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the best security against German aggression in South Africa, and against any interference, European or Asiatic, in Australia and New Zealand. Irish independence could not be secure in an armed world ; autonomy, in some form or other, was the utmost Irishmen could hope for with security. To set against the disin- tegrating tendencies to which the effects of war have given such a stimulus, there is really nothing but the Imperial sentiment remaining, a thing incomparably less strong than an awakened national spirit. Scotsmen and Welshmen are undoubtedly proud of the Empire they have done so much to form, but they are very much fonder, if not prouder, of Scotland or Wales. Undoubtedly the affection for the Empire of the English-speaking Dominions, whose nation- ality is as yet only in the germ, is deep and sincere, but we have only to look at the map of the world to see that the tie can only be a sentimental one. To this has hitherto been added, less clearly denned than in America, but certainly everywhere present, the instinct of self-preservation that found expression in the Monroe Doctrine of the United States. Everywhere the war has rendered out of date the fears upon which the Imperialism of the last generation was based. Russian Imperialism which secured popular toleration for that of Germany has fallen, and with it that of Germany. INTRODUCTORY 29 As the passions of the moment die away, the nightmare of German militarism will cease to be a support for the army of France. Europe is crippled and largely disarmed ; Asia, Africa, and America need no longer fear aggression from any of her Powers. In the wake of the passing Empires follows everywhere a renewed spirit of nationality, conscious, confident, and aggressive. Sinn Fein is no isolated phenomenon : it is only the Irish manifestation of a universal spirit. Everywhere the resurgent nations have to face decrepit Imperialisms, struggling hopelessly in a quagmire of debt. To this pass have the Impe- rialist statesmen of the last generation brought the system to which they belonged ! Many of them have already passed from sight ; the rest in turn must go and give way to statesmen of clearer and wider vision. We seem to hear the mocking laughter of the Fates as they withdraw one by one from the stage the puppets who ruled Europe in 1914. CHAPTER II THE BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS THE renewed impulse towards national inde- pendence and the consequent break-up of Imperialism would be a grave enough pheno- menon if it stood alone. It is accompanied and rendered far more difficult, however, by another result of the war, the bankruptcy of the bellig- erent Powers, at least of the Continent, and per- haps of our own Imperial Government. This is a matter that has caused far more alarm than the nationalist movement, though I fear the extent of the problem is, even yet, very imper- fectly understood. Without a full and fearless examination of the financial position it is idle to outline any policy, national or international. Until the debts and the resources of Europe have been approximately ascertained, it is impossible to say whether the former can be paid or not, or whether any particular proposal is adequate or inadequate, possible or impossible. Though finance is far from being the only problem with which we have to deal, it is one which enters into every other, It affects even BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 31 the nationalist difficulty dealt with in the last chapter. Irishmen have told me that they believe their countrymen would be satisfied with Do- minion Home Rule, but they would stoutly refuse to pay any part of the Imperial War Debt. Why ? Whatever the faults of the then Govern- ment of Ireland, it is certain that both the Nationalist and Ulster members supported the war and that they were elected to the Imperial Parliament by a free ballot on the same suffrage as that of England. The fact that the Irish electors have been converted to Sinn Fein by no means justifies them in leaving the debt con- tracted by the authority of those members of Parliament whom they chose to represent them, as much as by that of the members for Great Britain, entirely to the taxpayers of the latter island. As soon as the capitalists of Ulster recognize the effect of such an arrangement on the rate of income tax in Ireland, Sir Edward Carson may find it more difficult than it has hitherto been to organize Orange opposition to Home Rule. Yet, though there is no stronger case anywhere for " self-determination " than in Ireland, it is clear that the proposal to leave all the common debt of the United Kingdom to be paid by England and Scotland is utterly unfair. The control of the United Kingdom Parliament over finance is absolute, and the 32 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA freely elected representatives of Ireland assented without hesitation to every tax and every loan for the war. In countries where Parliament was less powerful or where the majority of the representatives of any nationality dissented from the war policy of their Imperial Governments, there is, of course, an incomparably better case for refusing to take a share in the common burden. The point is that here we have a powerful new factor making for Imperial disin- tegration. Scotland and Wales are just as much nationalities as Ireland, and may readily come to think that if we in England are to bear the Irish share of a common debt, we may as well make ourselves responsible for theirs also. Before the war the dominant nationalities Austro- Germans, Magyars, Prussians, Great Russians, English whatever their faults may have been, could at least give defence to the minor nations grouped under the same flag. Under the state of things likely to prevail in the future this may be entirely changed. The League of Nations, if reconstructed on national lines, may give far better protection than the old Empires could do, who may have nothing more attractive to offer their old partners than a share in the pay- ment of enormous taxes. The Imperial nations are likely to be the poor relations of the new world and may readily be no more popular than poor relations have ever been. BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 33 It is less, however, with the influence of the debts on Imperialism than with the effect they are likely to have on internal politics here and also, to some extent, abroad that I am concerned in this chapter. It is possible, however im- probable, that none of the Governments that have engaged in the war may fail in the long run to avoid actual bankruptcy, but only, I am con- vinced, as far at least as Europe is concerned, if they make such fundamental changes in their social and political organization as are hardly contemplated except by groups of the extreme Left at the present day. The abortive revolt of manufacturers against the increase in the excess profits duty imposed by Mr. Austen Chamberlain this year, is one indication of a state of mind widespread, indeed universal, among the wealthy classes. The rich people of this country seem to have no idea whatever of the position in which the war has left us. Apart from other expenses, we have somehow or other to find interest for, and, if possible, to repay a debt of nearly 8,000,000,000, an amount equal to one-third of the total estimated wealth of the country before the war. After allowing for the vast depreciation in the value of money, this is still a most tremendous, a revolutionary fact, involving necessarily all sorts of unpleasant consequences to people fortunate enough to possess any of the national assets out of which it 3 34 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA must be paid. Much of the talk that goes on would lead one to believe that the payment of eight thousand millions can be made a pleasant operation. It cannot. By no system of pain- less dentistry can any Chancellor of the Ex- chequer extract such a sum of money from the public without agony for the victims. The excess profits duty may not be the best and fairest way of raising money ; it is certainly unjust to penalize the manufacturer and let off the landlord and the farmer altogether ; but Mr. Chamberlain's fault is that he took far too little, not too much of the accumulated wealth of the propertied class in his Budget. Mr. Chamberlain probably went as far as he could with such colleagues in the Cabinet and such a majority in the House, but we must, in these days, be thankful for small mercies, and it is something to the good that the Chan- cellor did not shirk the financial issue altogether. As compared with recent Budgets, that of 1920 may even be commended as the first serious official attempt to call the attention of the nation to the gravity of the position. How hopelessly the House had failed to realize the state of things brought about by the war is revealed by the general line of criticism taken in attacking the excess profits duty. As an expedient for balancing the revenue and expendi- ture this tax is open to many objections, at BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 35 least two of which are valid from the capitalist point of view. The enormous expenditure for which Mr. Chamberlain had to provide, amount- ing to more than half the estimated pre-war income of the nation,* was largely due to the scandalous waste of the Government and the militarism of Mr. Winston Churchill. Mr. Churchill at the War Office is a sort of inverted Don Quixote, who seems to think it the duty of the British forces to interfere anywhere on behalf of any oppressed capitalism and to hand in the bill to the British taxpayer ; unfortunately, the results of his exploits are not matter for laughter. The opponents of the excess profits duty, then, might have done something to help their case by insisting upon a thorough over- hauling of the estimates, accompanied by vig- orous criticism of the policy that had produced them. Equally effective work could have been done by insisting upon other forms of wealth bearing their fair share of the burden. In a book written during the war, Britain after the Peace, I argued * It must be remembered, however, that owing to the rise in prices the national income, as expressed in terms of money, is now much larger than before the war. We must bear in mind the paradox that while the country has been losing heavily in real wealth, money values have greatly increased. Thus a house which could have been bought for 500 in 1914 may now readily bring 1,000, though the only differences between its former and its present condition may be those due to six years' wear and tear. that the profiteering of the capitalists during the war, bad as it was, is not likely to be any- thing like so enduring and so mischievous in its effects as that of the landowners. The dearth throughout the world of foodstuffs and raw materials, with the consequent rise in prices, must ere long increase enormously both the rental and selling value of the lands from which they come. The general fall in the exchange value of money has in like manner increased urban land values. Unless something is done to secure this increment for the State, the Junkers of England are likely to come out of the war enriched beyond the dreams of avarice, and enriched, not for the term of a boom in trade, but for an indefinite length of time, perhaps for ever. Yet, at the very time he was increasing the burden on the capitalist under the sore pressure of national need, Mr. Chamber- lain took the opportunity to relieve the land- owners of the very inadequate burdens imposed on them by his own chief in 1910. It was his clear duty to make the landlords contribute their full share of any new taxation he needed to impose. A complete revision and reconstruction of the land value duties on more scientific lines, accompanied by a heavy increase in their amount, might have made his Budget an adequate one to meet the emergency or at least divided the incidence of what taxation he did impose a little BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 37 more fairly. As it is, his plan is neither adequate nor just. If Mr. Terrell and his rebels had insisted upon a thorough revision of the estimates and a fair distribution of the rich man's burden between themselves and the landowners, they might have secured the support of many who ultimately entered the division lobby on the side of the Government. A merely negative position was, however, hopeless. The possessing classes, the only people who were in a position to lend on a great scale, have advanced about seven thousand millions, and are now on the horns of a dilemma. Either they must be taxed to pay the interest and redeem the principal of the debt, or their holdings in the debt itself will yield no income and will rapidly become valueless. To a certain extent, indeed, they have freedom of action ; they can insist upon the cutting down of all useless expenditure, so as to reduce to a minimum the taxation they are called upon to pay in addition to the amount they receive back again as interest or repayment of debt, or they can fight among themselves as to which section of them has to bear the heaviest portion of taxation ; but by no jugglery can they avoid in the long run accepting the fact that, as a class, they have given to the State 7,000,000,000, to be repaid ultimately out of their own pockets or not at all. 167570 38 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA An imperfect recognition of this truth is responsible for the horror with which such proposals as that of Mr. Pethick Lawrence and the Labour Party for the conscription of capital have been received, and for the painful efforts of Liberal politicians to hit upon some less unwelcome expedient. Such schemes should be considered, from a rich man's point of view, not as alternatives to something more pleasant in itself, but to other possible plans equally or more disagreeable. Mr. Pethick Lawrence's scheme to clear off six thousand millions of the debt by a graduated levy on capital in all forms, so far from being an extreme proposal errs, if at all, by not being drastic enough ; very lucky will the propertied classes of this country be if in the end they get off so cheaply. Mr. Pethick Lawrence should not be looked upon by the rich man as a foe. Rather, he is to be regarded as a faithful surgeon, who recom- mends an operation, painful indeed, but less so than the disease it is intended to cure. It would probably be the wisest course for the rich man to-day, for the sake of his own peace of mind, to take an inventory of his possessions and deliberately write off one half their value as mortgaged to the Government, planning out his domestic economy accordingly. By this means he will avoid many heart-burnings in the future, and possibly prepare for himself some BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 39 day the pleasant surprise of finding a little left over after all. We have certainly travelled a long way from the time when politicians who ought to have been serious talked of recovering the war debt from Germany, and Mr. Chamberlain's Budget marked a stage on the journey from dreamland to reality. Nevertheless, it was a pitiful affair after all. Mr. Chamberlain claimed that his Budget provides for a debt reduction of 234,198,000 ; in reality, if his estimates come out as he anticipated, the Government will be in a worse position at the end of the financial year to the extent of nearly seventy million pounds than at the beginning. His debt reduc- tion is only obtained by selling off 302,000,000 worth of war material, the receipts from which it is absurd to regard as revenue at all. Thus, unless expenditure is greatly reduced, taxation is not excessive but inadequate. What we want before anything else is a fearless realism in politics, a statesmanship that will face the unwelcome facts and tell the country the truth. The methods hitherto pursued by the Government, and the attitude of mind that regards Mr. Pethick Lawrence's proposal as extravagant, lead straight to Bolshevism, at least to one feature of Bolshevism of which " bourgeois" Governments most strongly disapprove, the repudiation of debt. Nor could repudiation stand 40 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA alone. With it would come a breakdown of British credit, the widespread bankruptcy of British firms, and the necessity for a provisional Government unhampered by Parliamentary delays to take over the assets of the country and reorganize industry on a new basis as best it could. We cannot judge the gravity of the financial difficulty without taking into consideration the position in other countries. With the further advances provided for in the Budget of 1920-1 our loans to the Dominions and foreign countries will amount to 1,886,000,000, only about one hundred and twenty millions of which will consist of advances made to the Dominions. Russia and France each owes us over five hundred and Italy over four hundred millions of pounds. Mr. Bonar Law, with the weak optimism of modern Chancellors of the Exchequer, once estimated that 10s. in the pound of this might some day be recovered. He must be a vary sanguine or a very badly informed man who expects we shall ever receive any of this. No Continental belligerent is in a position to pay its debts ; we shall have, sooner or later, to accept one side at least of Mr. Keynes's proposals for the cancellation of all inter- Allied indebtedness, and simply write off all the money advanced to the bankrupt nations of Europe. If we do that we shall raise a nice BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 41 Imperial problem, for though Canada and Aus- tralia could no doubt repay the money lent to them, and are indeed better able to support their burdens than we are likely to be, it is a very invidious thing to exact from one debtor the full amount of his borrowings, while remitting much greater debts to other people. It is just as foolish, however, to expect that hopelessly bankrupt allies can repay enormous debts of this kind as to expect great indemnities from Germany or Austria, and it would be much wiser to face at once the fact that such debts are irrecoverable, than to begin a wrangle with our late Allies over repayment claims that will ultimately have to be dropped as hopeless. Whether Mr. Keynes's hope that the United States, on their part, may remit the vast debt we owe them will be realized is not certain, for it is not yet evident that we cannot pay. In remitting a debt of 850,000,000 to us the States would be performing an act of great generosity, very different from our refusal to press for debts which it is morally certain we will never recover in any case. Nor do I think it would be to the honour of this country to ask such a thing, so we will be wise to make provision to pay our own debt and write off every farthing that other nations owe to us. This will, in the long run, be best for our own peace of mind, as well as for the good name of the nation It is rather a bleak prospect for all that. If 42 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA other nations are driven to repudiate their debts, we shall emerge from the period of recon- struction after the war more heavily burdened than any other country, for, of course, the United States' debt will be far lighter in propor- tion than ours. I am not clear what bearing this will have on the future of our trade, but, on the face of it, a people handicapped by having to pay nearly 400,000,000 a year in interest on their debt should be in a worse position than those who have solved the problem by repudia- tion. One thing is pretty certain : such a state of things would raise acutely the question of repudiation here also. The idea was widely spread among the soldiers during the war, many of whom affirmed loudly that they were not going to fight for years and then come back from the trenches to earn interest for those who only stayed at home and lent money. Yet it seems difficult to see how most of the European Governments are to avoid repudiation both of their debts and of their paper money. The credit of the Continent is now buried under a litter of nearly worthless paper. Mr. E. Cannan has advised us to burn Treasury notes until the number has been reduced to such a point that the remainder attain to par value, and indeed the proper course to pursue is to stop the further issue of paper money as soon as possible, and to redeem in gold as much and as fast as we can. BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 43 Only when the paper pound can be exchanged at will for its nominal equivalent in gold will the national credit be in a sound condition. But with francs at 65 to the depreciated pound and other currencies at anything from a tenth to a fiftieth of their face value, it is simply incredible that a similar operation can ever be carried through on the Continent. Terrible as the hard- ship of such a measure might be, it seems to me that the only possible course to pursue with the mark, franc, lira, rouble, etc., may be to repudiate them and begin anew with a world currency issued under stringent conditions and based, perhaps, not on gold at all but on some such article in wide demand as the electrical unit. At any rate, nothing is lost by facing facts, and the plain fact is that the Continental currencies are paper and rapidly becoming no more valuable than other paper. Were it not for the overwhelming pressure of their debts, the European States might, perhaps, recall much of their paper currency by raising further loans. They are likely, however, to need all the borrowing power they have to raise, either separately or in combination by means of an international loan, the money needed for the even more urgent work of restoring their industries and agriculture. Such a loan must of necessity take precedence of all other indebtedness, of all payments for armies and navies and of all indemnities. Even so, the security will be none too good, so desperate is the plight of Europe. And this plight is rendered all the worse by the childishness- there is no other word for it of European statesmen. Before the dismemberment of Poland, the Poles earned for themselves a reputation for political incompetence, which sympathy for them after that crime had largely tended to obliterate. The lamentable history of their faults had been forgotten by the world. It will not be forgotten for long unless the Polish Republic can settle down to deal with the actual problems of the day with less levity than it has shown so far. But Poland in this matter is, after all, little worse than France, which has not the excuse of inexperience. M. Charles Gide estima- ted that the total income of the French people before the war amounted to 33 milliards of francs ; this year M. Frangois Marsal presented to the Chamber a Budget involving the expendi- ture of 47 milliards ! The general rise in prices since 1913 has, no doubt, raised the money value of French produce to this amount, but it is obvious that by no possibility can the French people permanently contribute such a sum of money annually to the Government. Of this sum, it is true, 22 milliards was not provided for by taxation, in the expectation that it would ultimately be paid by Germany. In the BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 45 meantime, it was to be borrowed and another 900,000,000 added to the French debt. England, the United States, Italy, and Japan had, we are told, pledged their honour that this would be done ! If this means that the four States in question have underwritten this sum and undertaken to find the money if it cannot be got from Germany, I can only say that our statesmen have been very generous with the taxpayers' money. If, on the other hand, it only means that the four Allies consider Germany ought to pay this money, then it is not a question of our national honour at all, but only one of Germany's ability to pay. To the opinion of the Allied statesmen on this latter point no wise man will pay any attention whatever, and the French people will be well advised to admit that the Budget for 1919-20 shows a deficit of about 1,000,000,000. This surely is a state of things calling for some severe measure of retrenchment, yet nothing seems to be further from the thought of the French Government. On the contrary, though the national expenditure has gone up from 104 million francs a day in 1917 to 127 millions in 1918, and 130 millions in 1919, the Government anticipate a further increase in this rate to 164 million francs daily in 1920. Now, whatever possibility there may be of recovering an indem- nity from Germany, it seems clear that every 46 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA franc of new debt incurred by the French Govern- ment, on the army of occupation or at home, will ultimately have to be paid by the French people, if it is ever paid at all. There are limits to Germany's capacity to pay, but if the Allies get their own way she will be compelled, in any case, to pay as much as she can. Neither the Allies nor any one else, however, can get more, and as the maximum that can be got from Germany will certainly fall far short of the claims already made by the Allies, it follows that any new expenditure incurred by armies of occupation, etc., is just good money thrown after bad. Looking at Europe to-day and seeing the lands from which have sprung all that was great in modern civilization lying in pitiful ruin, one might almost think France by comparison less unhappy than the rest. Victorious mistress of Europe, leader of the world alike in ideas as in taste, in art and letters, the splendour of her historic past shining yet more brightly in the glory of her recent deeds, she at least seems happier than her vanquished foes. Yet I believe that never was France in more deadly peril. Quos Deus vult perdere prius dementat, and the fiscal dreams of French statesmen can only be described as madness. Two years ago, M. Charles Gide wrote a pamphlet Projets d'Entente Finan- ciere, in which he dealt with several of the BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 47 proposals made in France for dealing with the problem of finance. These French projects make curious reading. One of the most remarkable of them proposed to divide the debts of the Allies among them in proportion to the annual national income, revenu global, of each. In this way, France would be relieved of nearly two-thirds of the interest on the debt she had so far incurred, Italy of nearly one-half, and Great Britain of nearly a quarter, the deficits so caused being made up by the United States ! Nor does M. Gide, perhaps the greatest of living French economists, altogether repudiate this scheme, though he mildly says : " ce serait trailer Voncle Sam un pen trop en oncle d'Amerique." Certainly, cool as this transference of their own debts on to the shoulders of the most business-like nation in the world may appear, it is, nevertheless, much more reasonable than other proposals gravely advocated in France and examined by M. Gide. He analyses only one of the wild proposals, " assez nombreuses pourtant" of those who, not content to lighten the burden of the debts, wish to remove it altogether by establishing an international bank to issue notes to the value of 1,200 milliards of francs and dividing the issue among the nations for the payment of debts and indemnities. In fact, France, even more than England, has been unwilling to face the elementary truth 48 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA that the war is a gigantic loss either for the taxpayers or the fund-holders of the nations engaged in it. The debt of France is so un- wieldy to-day largely because the French Govern- ment dared not tax its people while the war was in progress. Only one-sixth of the national expenditure from August, 1914, to January, 1920, was raised by taxation, only about one- quarter by permanent loans, and more than half by short term borrowings and floating debt. Now, whatever may be the case at the moment, this state of things probably places France in a worse position for the future than that of any other nation. The population of France has been stationary for a number of years, and the loss of so many young men seems to threaten her with a permanent reduction in it. Terrible as is the present plight of the States which constituted the Austrian Empire, they at least have the prospect of recovery, if only they can agree among themselves to some sort of federal arrangement which will permit of unrestricted trading among them. The popu- lation is normally a growing one and the riches of their lands can probably be much further developed. The very hopelessness of their bank- ruptcy probably favours them by rendering the repudiation of their war debts unavoidable and hence admitting of excuse. This is practically the condition of all Eastern BANKRUPTCY OF GOVERNMENTS 49 Europe. Before the war, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was travelling at no slow rate towards national bankruptcy. Every year the budgets of the Dual Empire showed deficits, and the amount of the national debts was steadily growing. It was the same in Germany and in the various States of the Empire. Even then the social order was growing old, and even without the calamity of war the modern Imperial system must sooner or later have brought about its own destruction. War and defeat have hastened the process by heaping up debt and indemnity claims so high that the most sanguine holder of German, Austrian, or Russian stock can hardly hope to receive any more interest on his money. The reconstruction of society on a vast scale is therefore inevitable. Banks and business houses, bourgeoisie, and aristocracy are alike ruined, and the future of civilization has to be built up again from the foundation. The more one considers the financial position of the Continent, the more one is convinced that it is necessary to begin by suspending if not repudiating all debts and indemnities incurred up to the present. It will be necessary to raise for the restoration both of Allied and enemy nations a great international loan, and in order to do this with reasonable security the interest and repayment of this must take precedence 4 50 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA of all other claims whatsoever. What portion, if any, of the older claims may afterwards be paid, must be left, in so far as internal debts are concerned, to the discretion of the several nations, and, as regards external claims, may be fair matter for negotiation. The international loan, however, must come first. Europe is bank- rupt there is no use mincing matters ; and if anything is to be recovered from the ruins, it can only be by giving the new creditors w r ho are willing to finance it a first claim on the estate. Whether the Continental belligerents will ultimately pay any of their debts is, I think, very doubtful. Bondholders will probably have to wait many years without receiving anything, and with only the melancholy satisfaction of seeing their claims against the State mount up at compound interest. It will be too much to expect of human nature to think that the demo- cratized States of Europe will do more than compromise such claims when at last even a compromise becomes possible. Some, no doubt, will repudiate altogether ; some may pay part, but, in any event, there must be an enormous aggregate loss. When at last some permanent settlement is arrived at, England may readily find herself alone in the new era, the only nation in the Old World bearing a crushing burden of debt, competing with nations which have virtu- ally gone through the bankruptcy court and come out with free hands. CHAPTER III CREATIVE REVOLUTION I HAVE sketched two of the main forces which seem to me destined to render impossible a return to anything like the state of things that preceded the war in the Western world. Of these, the pressure of debts, swollen beyond any amount previously imagined, seems a wholly destructive force defeating alike the aims of statesmen and of struggling interests blindly striving to maintain their foothold in a world slipping away from beneath them. Nor is the rising spirit of nationalism less menacing on the whole. It begins at least with the break- up of Empires, by the division vertically of a world order painfully built up by the labour of many centuries, into fragments of mutually hostile nationalities. If here we may see some hope of a restored order based on national liberties in the future, the immediate prospect is only one of disintegration, almost of chaos. The very thought of union seems unknown to the conflicting little nations of Europe rendered mad by new hopes and ancient hates. Where 51 52 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA unity is most imperative, there division is most acute ; where the horrors of war have been most deeply felt, there the spirit of war survives in greatest strength. Poles, Czecho-Slavs, South Slavs, dependent for the barest necessaries of life on the restoration of peaceful conditions, are ambitious not only for liberty but for empire in the days when as never before the vanity of empire has been most clearly shown. It is a relief to turn to forces which, however fatal they may be to existing institutions, are essentially constructive ; to ideas, not of schism, but of unity ; to a movement which, however vexed it may be by the conflicts of the hour, is nevertheless founded on a serene humanity. Such is the Labour movement throughout the world. There are, of course, vast differences in form between its manifestations in various countries and in the same country at various times, but in Germany and France, in Great Britain and in Russia, among the most moderate ' collectivists ' and the most extreme revo- lutionaries, there is an essential unity of idea, a common conception of a new order utterly different from that which is falling to pieces around us. It is here, as will be seen later on, that the hope of the world is to be found ; here, if anywhere, is the foundation from which a new order can arise. But to the present order the Labour movement CREATIVE REVOLUTION 53 comes as a disruptive force, and it is this aspect of it which concerns us in this chapter. In previous books* I have dealt with the genesis and earlier growth of the Labour movement and with its relation to Socialist ideals. Of the comments then made I have little to alter, though the publication of the last of these books almost synchronized with a remarkable develop- ment both of the Labour movement itself and of Socialist theory. The year 1911 was marked by an unprecedented series of strikes throughout the country and by a rapid expansion of Trade Unionism. A new spirit had come into the movement which found expression both in the temper and in the organization of Unionism. The change came so suddenly it is difficult to assign an adequate cause for it. There can be no doubt that from the beginning of this century there had been a steadily growing dis- content among industrial workers. Trade upon the whole had been good, and our exports had increased in the first decade of the century more than in any previous ten years in our history. Prices which, from the seventies till the end of the nineteenth century, had on the whole steadily declined, began again to rise, so that the cost of living in 1911 was considerably higher than it had been in the lifetime of the younger * The Socialist Movement in England and Modern Democracy. 54 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA workmen. It was a time in which the rich grew rapidly richer, and in ten years the amount of money brought under review of the Income Tax Commissioners rose from 867,000,000 to 1,070,000,000. It was a time, too, of rapidly increasing luxury, the signs of which every one could see around him ; the new motor-cars rolling along everywhere were pretty clear evidence of the good time rich people were having. And if, on the one hand, expanding trade was making fortunes for the few, it was doing less than ever to benefit the masses. Employment, no doubt, was more regular ; there was less time lost, and the average workman might take home enough money at the end of the week to balance the rise in prices. He gained, however, very little indeed in extra rate of wages nothing at all adequate to set off against the rising cost of food, to say nothing of improving his con- dition in anything like the same proportion as the employers. This had not been the case in previous " boom " years. Trade Unionism had been under a cloud since the Taff Vale decision rendered the funds of unions liable for the misdeeds of individuals. Perhaps the union officials during the expansion of trade in the first years of the century were unduly cautious, but their position was a very difficult one. When the accumulated funds of a great union were at the mercy of the law courts whenever any CREATIVE REVOLUTION 55 hot-headed striker broke the law, the strike weapon became impotent. Labour dare not strike until the Taff Vale judgment was reversed ; the only possible remedy for the position lay through Parliament. This state of things had the effect of making the Labour Representation Committee into a living party, but it paralysed all industrial action and left the employers free to monopolize all the benefits of expanding trade. A less immediate effect was to reverse the relation of Trade Union officials to the rank and file of the movement. For the last ten years of the nineteenth century I think it would be true to say that the leaders of the Trade Union movement were generally far in advance of their followers, certainly politically and probably industrially also. Most of the officials had come into contact with the Socialist movement, and probably for at least a decade the majority of the younger leaders had been generally theo- retical collectivists. The rank and file were still, however, " guarantists," as I have elsewhere called them, interested only in immediate pro- posals for increases in wages or reductions in hours. Thus it came about that the Trade Union Congress could pass time after time the most advanced resolutions, because those Trade Unionists sufficiently prominent to get appointed as Congress delegates were themselves advanced ; 56 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA and yet these resolutions were never effectively followed up, because the constituents who chose the delegates cared very little about them. All this was now changed. The steady stream of pamphlets and speeches poured forth by the Socialist organizations working upon the rising discontent among the people suddenly began to take effect. The decorous middle-aged Trade Union secretary, whose youth had been spent in trying to urge on an indifferent proletariat to action, suddenly found himself regarded as an out-of-date obstructive. A new and active order of shop stewards began to usurp the leadership of a movement which was rapidly passing out of his control. To console him, especially if his was one of the newer Labour Unions, he probably found the membership of his branches expanding in a surprising manner. But there was a fly in the ointment here, also. The new union members, and the old also for that matter, had the crudest ideas of union discipline. The spirit of rebellion was in the air ; perhaps Mrs. Pankhurst had released it, or perhaps, even earlier, the passive resisters may have done so, but, at any rate, it had infected the Labour movement at last. No one settles down into an armchair more comfortably than John Bull, and no one fills it more amply or in a worthier manner. But when the children have gone to bed and there is no CREATIVE REVOLUTION 57 more legitimate racket in the house, it is annoying to be disturbed by complaints from the women- kind and by an upheaval in the servants' hall. In 1911, John Bull had been doing a very pros- perous business and was quite willing to sit down and enjoy himself. He had done his duty ; he had elected, in proper constitutional form, a most decorous Liberal Government. His sympathies with the people had been shown by his approval of Old Age Pensions, and he was making clear to the House of Lords that he did not mean to stand any reactionary nonsense. He seemed perfectly justified in thinking that the affairs of the world were pleasantly settled, or in a fair way to be settled, and that things as he had known them would last his time, if not for ever. It seemed hard that, just at such a time, the old reverence for law and order should begin to give way, and that this new incalculable spirit should appear on all sides. Now I am not concerned to defend all the actions of the Trade Unions during the last ten years, any more than I should attempt to justify those of the Women's Social and Political Union. The nation had drunk of a new wine, which quickened the blood and rose not in- frequently to the head. Labour, so long tame, became mettlesome, capricious, dangerous ; it was quite impossible to control it any longer by 58 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the old methods or through the old leaders. Mere discontent caused by the slow progress of recent years would not, I think, suffice to account for this. Partly it may have been due to the realization of power revealed by the success of the sympathetic strike ; for the gains of Trade Unionism in the summer of 1911, very largely won by a new inter-trade solidarity and sym- pathetic action, were so much more striking and important than anything won by the unions for a generation or more that they were in themselves sufficient to account for the new spirit among the men. The change, both in spirit and method, was, however, fundamental, whatever the cause. The year 1911 marked an era in the attitude of the average British workman : before then he might dispute about the conditions of service, but, broadly speaking, he was content to be a servant ; since that time he has been every year less willing to be anything of the kind. The Socialist has not, perhaps, succeeded in teaching the Trade Unionist his economics, but he has at last inspired him with something of Socialist ethics. For years Socialist propaganda has insisted that a life of useful, productive work is the only honourable and honest one ; it has glorified work of hand or brain done for the good of society. On the other hand, it has always denounced as " wage slavery " a system that enables the rich man to make profits by buying CREATIVE REVOLUTION 59 the labour of the poor. The terms " masters " and " men " had given way to " employers " and " employees " even before 1911, an indication in itself of the coming spirit. By the time of which I am writing, this spirit had spread far ; men were coming round to the revolutionary point of view. They were still striking about questions of hours and wages, of course, but they were striking about something deeper as well. A change was coming over the temper of Labour not unlike that which must have come to the peasants of the fourteenth century in the days of John Ball. For centuries villeinage had been an accepted institution, an essential part of the feudal order of the day. Nor, as far as we know, was there any steady opposition to the institution even among the villeins themselves. Chattel slavery had been forbidden in England as early as the days of Anselm, and no doubt the mediaeval villein would have highly resented being sold as a slave. Against hard and grasping lords, who exacted more or even as much as their full legal rights, resistance might often be bitter and determined, but villeinage as a status was not felt to be intolerable ; probably it was regarded as something inevitable, part of the nature of things. Suddenly, however, society was startled out of its complacency by the Peasants' Revolt. A day had come when men would no longer be villeins, though they were 60 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA willing enough to be hired for wages. It was the protest against villeinage, not the more ideal aims of the agitators who led the Peasants' Revolt, that took effective hold of the people. The frightened nobles, through the King, promised the people what they wanted, and then, of course, broke their promise. Nevertheless, it would seem the Peasants' Revolt did destroy villeinage. As soon as it was felt to be an indignity to be a villein, it became no longer possible to maintain the institution, and villeinage rapidly died out. The repudiation of villeinage was thus funda- mental, and it is obvious that if the working classes no longer wish to be " employees " pro- ducing goods for any one's profit, such a change in the point of view must in the long run be equally fundamental ; it is a revolutionary and not a " reformist " idea at all. The employers complain that it is impossible for them to come to a working arrangement with their men. They are right : it is impossible. No sooner is one set of workmen apparently satisfied than another is out on strike, possibly, I frankly admit, on a frivolous pretext, or at least one on which no strike would have occurred twenty years ago. Then very likely the union that has just come to terms is " out " again in sym- pathy with the new demand of their comrades, almost as much to the disgust of the union CREATIVE REVOLUTION 61 officials, who have made, as they consider, a good bargain, as of the employers. The new wine cannot be confined in the old bottles ; it is rapidly becoming impossible to come to any agreement with employees qua employees, for that, at bottom, is what they refuse to be. The new state of things is disturbing to the agitator of the 'nineties, now middle-aged and respectable, who has become used to the con- ception of peaceful evolution towards an orderly collectivist State. Well for him if he possesses a sense of humour, can delight in the independence and initiative of the people, and has a mind open to be enriched by new experience. Such a man can trudge home from work when the trains have suddenly stopped running, or sit down at an empty coal-grate when the miners are on strike, with a good-humoured chuckle as he thinks that at last the world is moving in the way he has always said he wants it to go. Capitalist society is becoming unworkable, a fact fully realized by the advocates of Guild Socialism. Thus, Mr. G. D. H. Cole, in a Fabian pamphlet on Guild Socialism says : . . . There is no hope in bureaucratic society, no hope that it would work, even if any one still desired to bring it into existence. Nor is there hope or chance of capitalism lasting much longer. We have to find some new way of facing the problem of industrial organization. Neither the old consumers' Socialism, nor Capitalism, is capable of turning out the goods. That puts it up to you either to 62 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA accept what I am saying, or else to find some way by which you can induce men to go on producing, by means other than the means which were employed right through the nineteenth century the means of hunger and fear. Almost the only reason why people have worked in the past, why people have consented to go on working under such miserable, unjust conditions, has been that they have been frightened, that they have been starved. If that breaks down and it is everywhere breaking down to-day then either men won't go on working at all or else they will go on working for some quite different reason. And this is true. Capitalism will " work " no longer, for Labour is refusing to work it. There is a new conception of manhood in the Labour movement. If we read Orlando's panegyric on his servant, that " perfect pattern of the antique world," or think of Caleb Balderston and the faithful body-servants of Scott's novels, we realize that even menial service may be noble and dignified. Yet what, in essence, can be less dignified, more ignoble, than to base one's claim to usefulness on personal service to another man ? It is to exist, so to speak, for his sake ; to be justified only in so far as his comfort and con- venience are considered. It is not surprising, then, to find loud lament throughout the ages at the way in which servants fail to keep up with the ancient ideal, till " flunkey " becomes a word of opprobrium, a thing which even the unskilled labourer would scorn to become. In a sense it is true that " there is nothing either good or ill but thinking makes it so," and even menial CREATIVE REVOLUTION 63 service can be dignified, in reality as well as in opinion, when it becomes an ideal of honour, however essentially false. Yet the thing is radically wrong. No man or woman exists for the sake of another ; all exchange of service should be on the basis of equality ; then only is it honourable, not only in transient opinion, but in fact. For a while, the thing may really in a manner be what it is thought to be, but sooner or later its true character will be revealed and the servant will, if capable of better things, become a rebel, if not, a flunkey. During the last few years, industrial service has been subjected to a change in public feeling similar to that which has taken place more gradually in domestic service. The husband in business has been confronted with the same problem as that which has been the constant complaint of his wife at home. The modern servant will not live for her mistress like the old family retainer ; she will earn her wages because she must live and cannot help herself, but she is : essentially dissatisfied with her position in life. Nor will the factory worker consent to make profits for another man, however favour- able the conditions or wages of labour. He is radically at war with the fact, not merely with the conditions, of his position in life. You cannot come to terms with him ; it is impossible to content him, because he has passed out of the 64 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA condition of mind which regards wage slavery as a tolerable state of life. The most important thing, undoubtedly, about the movement that began with the industrial unrest of 1911 is this new spirit ; but there are other factors in the matter which deserve con- sideration also. First of these is the rapid expansion of the organized Labour movement. Between the years 1899 and 1911 the total number of Trade Unionists rose from 1,861,000 to 2,446,000, an increase of 600,000. At one bound in 1911 this increase was practically doubled, and with that year began a sustained and steady growth, which has increased the number of Trade Unionists to six millions at the present day. Trades which in former times it had been difficult, almost impossible, to organize felt the impulse of the new spirit. Agricultural Labourers' Unions, both in England and Scotland, took root and flourished in a way that would have delighted the soul of Joseph Arch, and the Shop Assistants' Union grew rapidly to many times its old size. With the war came a similar extension of the Co-operative movement, the number of co-operators rising from three millions in 1913 to four millions in 1920. Indeed, not only the spirit, but the standing of the Labour movement, politically and industrially, gained beyond all precedent in the years immediately before and after 1911. CREATIVE REVOLUTION 65 Much of this was probably due to the new propaganda of Guild Socialism. Whatever may be the ultimate outcome of the Guild Socialist movement, at least this is true of it, that it has greatly enriched, if not the philosophy of Social- ism, at least the stock of ideas current among British Socialists. There is a general tendency in the English-speaking countries to make of Socialism a thing too systematic and mechanical, and thus make it work not with, but against, the trend of evolution, which is naturally towards ever greater variety and not uniformity. Helpful probably at the time it came out in giving a coherent ideal to minds unaccustomed to thinking out social problems, Edward Bellamy's Looking Backward has had, on the whole, I think, an injurious influence on Socialist thought. Even where such a vision of the future is attractive at first sight, and certainly it is not attractive to many people, the essentially Philistine ideal there presented must very soon pall on any one whose conception of life is continually becoming wider and more human. And this is exactly what occurs or ought to occur to the average man or woman who joins the Socialist movement. The convert to Socialism is drawn impercep- tibly into the general movement of the world's thought. The names and ideas of a crowd of people who have come to the movement from the educational, artistic, literary, or philosophic 5 66 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA side of things become familiar. However im- perfectly understood at first, the criticisms of capitalistic society from these unfamiliar points of view blend gradually with the more mate- rialistic demand of the struggling workman and enlarge his conception of Socialism itself. He realizes that Socialism is very much more than Collectivism, and is by no means disposed to hand everything over to an omnipotent and centralized State. " The very force that brings Socialism into being will be the first to resist any form of restraint not rendered necessary to abolish a sterner tyranny than itself." When, many years ago, I wrote this sentence, I was thinking of the general character of those who formed the Socialist movement ; they are the very last people in the world to submit to any control that cannot be shown to be absolutely necessary if then. To become a Socialist at all implies a spirit of revolt and the " divine discontent " from which it springs, and Socialists generally have been far more apt to break through the rules of their own organizations than to submit with too great tameness to those of the con- stituted authorities. Indiscipline rather than subservience is the fault in their disposition. The spread of the Guild Socialist movement, almost from the moment that sentence was written, confirms its truth. We were certainly CREATIVE REVOLUTION 67 far enough from the Collectivist, the servile state at that time, and no one had suffered or was likely to suffer from its tyranny ; yet, even so long before it came into existence, this revolt against State Socialism was organized by the same sort of people as those who had been its original advocates. Possibly Guild Socialism itself is not the last word in the matter, but, at any rate, it is a useful check on the mechanical ideals that prevailed in the movement before its advent. We should never lose sight of the fact that the root idea of Socialism is common ownership and co-operative as against individual ownership and competition ; it is only incidentally con- cerned with questions of the extension or restric- tion of State action. Whatever may be its justification at any given time, legal property is always in essence authoritarian. What makes anything " property," that is " proper " to any one man rather than free for the use of all ? Obviously, it is some law, custom, or moral ideal preventing other people from making use of the thing without the owner's consent ; it is not positive, but negative ; it is not in essence an enlargement of the owner's rights, but a limita- tion of other people's. This is so even in the most just and rational forms of property as much as in those to which social reformers are opposed. You cannot find any natural basis for property 68 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA except that of effective possession as long as possession remains effective. Thus my watch is mine in the nature of things as long as it is in my pocket ; it ceases to be mine as soon as some clever thief has transferred it to his. Of the world of things not part of myself or not imme- diately attached to my person I have no hold whatever, except such as the law, custom, or the consciences of my fellow-men accord to me. And if any one disputes my claim to anything external to me in a practical manner, that is by making use of it without my consent, I have no means of preventing this in the last resort except by force, either my own or that of society. Property is a great " taboo," largely justifiable and necessary, no doubt, but still a taboo against every one but the legal owner of a thing. But, and this is the point to remember, it is property and not communism that essentially implies a State organization. As long as a footpath is open to the public you may be able to do without any law at all ; but as soon as any one claims the right to close it, you must have a court to deal with trespassers. IS Esprit des Lois c'est V esprit de la propriety as some one said to Montesquieu. Naturally, for the right of property in land, for instance, confers no new power on the land- owner to use land himself, but merely to prevent other people from using it without first paying him a rent. If the law did not give him power CREATIVE REVOLUTION 69 to distrain or evict, his tenants could go on using the land without giving him any part of the produce. It will be seen, then, that in so far as Socialism aims at opening up access to land and capital to every one alike, it does not imply any extension of State powers ; rather, it involves the ending or limitation of what has been the chief activity of the State in the past. Conceivably, it might even mean the disappearance of the State as is assumed in Morris's News from Nowhere. The later criticism of politics by the Guild Socialists may have at least one good effect it may induce both friends and opponents of the movement to revise their estimate of the place of the State in any possible system of Socialism. I have given, however, rather too much space to this matter; for the present I am more concerned with the Labour movement from its destructive than from its constructive side. And as a force definitely at war with the existing social order, the Guild Socialist movement fits in admirably with the growing revolt of Labour. I think the Guild propaganda has spread far more rapidly than the earlier agitation of the Collectivists. This is due very largely to the spade work for a generation of the Collectivists themselves. It was they who first stirred the torpor of the Victorian democracy ; they who 70 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA first taught the people to look beyond the speeches of " orthodox " politicians and gather round the street corner orator with his strange and attrac- tive ideas ; they who established everywhere missionary branches of the I.L.P.,* composed of members largely emancipated, and all under- going a process of further emancipation, from Victorian ideals. It is due to them that a considerable public exists who are open to receive and assimilate new thought, and are not necessarily shocked or merely puzzled because they are told of something very different from that which they have been brought up to believe. This release from the tyranny of customary thought is perhaps the greatest service rendered to the democracy by the older Socialists. It has prepared the field for the Guild Socialists, and for the progressive enrichment of Socialism itself. But this enrichment of the Socialist ideal arises even more from the people themselves than from any school of Socialists whatsoever. It is the gradual formation within the old society of the framework of the new, the development and increasing boldness of Trade Unionism, the spread and widening scope of Co-operation, * As in previous books, I propose to use the letters I.L.P. when referring to the Independent Labour Party. This seems to me the readiest way to avoid confusion with the Labour Party, of which the I.L.P. is an affiliated part. CREATIVE REVOLUTION 71 as well as the increase of Labour representation on local and national authorities ; the growth, in short, of a democracy trained in action and disciplined by experience that constitutes the real menace to the old order and the hope of the new. And a formidable menace indeed it is. Had it not been for the war, if the empires financially solvent had been able to pay their armies, if the wave of enthusiasm with which the youth of the world responded to the appeal for help in a war for freedom had never reached the subject nations, white, black, and yellow, and never aroused in them the hope of liberty ; if the new generation of English men and women had never been torn from the old life of use and wont and compelled to look at life as at a thing complex and changing, not as something complete and stable, which must be to them and would be to their children as it had been to their fathers, then perhaps the old methods might have sur- vived for years. I cannot see how this is possible now. Menaced by the growing spirits of nation- alism and militant Labour, and crushed by debt, the political and industrial structure of Western civilization as it was before the war is shaken to the foundations. All that we can hope to do is to rescue from the crash the acquired knowledge, the art and science almost buried beneath the capitalist superstructure. CHAPTER IV THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM IT is now necessary to develop more clearly my reasons for thinking that the system of society which has existed for several genera- tions in England must necessarily fall to pieces, and leave for the coming generation an oppor- tunity, such as perhaps never occurred before in our history, to build upon its ruins a civil- ization of their own. So far I have dealt with the three main forces menacing this order : the progress of nationalism all over the world, the pressure of debt on the leading States, and the growth of the Labour Socialist movement. The first and last of these are in essence creative ; they are pillars on which a new society may ultimately be built. Thus their influence as destroyers of the old is not the only or even the main thing to consider about them. Nor are they, I think, such formidable agents of destruction as the debt of Europe ; but for that they might remain for generations merely impotent aspirations of the peoples towards national and industrial freedom.] 72 THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 73 It is altogether otherwise with the gigantic burden of debt which the Imperial States have piled upon their shoulders during the war there is no way of dealing with this that does not imply a revolutionary reconstruction of society within the States themselves and a paralysis of their strength sufficient to render impossible for a long time any effective inter- ference with the affairs of countries beyond their borders. As this book is primarily devoted to English affairs, it will only be necessary for me to deal at any length with our own financial position, yet it is desirable for the reader to remember throughout that, bad as our position may be, it is incomparably better than that of our European Allies and enemies. It is not possible for all or any of the great States to become bankrupt and repudiate their debts without making it much more difficult to maintain our own credit, and without strengthening the party here who are wishful to settle once for all the whole problem of the debt by refusing to pay either principal or interest. Before the war the total wealth of the country was estimated at about twenty thousand million pounds. The National Debt now stands at about eight thousand millions, to which should be added the various local debts throughout the country. This looks at first sight as though 74 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the land and capital of the nation was mort- gaged to the extent of about forty per cent, of its total value. Two factors, however, prevent us from taking this as a true statement of affairs. The real wealth of the country must have declined since the beginning of the war to a considerable extent. Houses, roads, rail- ways, and in many cases factories have been let down for want of adequate repairs ; land has suffered for want of labour, and ships have been destroyed by submarine warfare. Though, of course, we have not suffered as much as Continental nations, I think there can be no doubt that, at pre-war prices, the assets of the nation would show a heavy depreciation in the value given before the war. Prices, however, have risen enormously ; it is money that has depreciated in value ; there can be no doubt that, stated in terms of money, the nominal wealth of the nation must be greater than it was in 1914. If these values are maintained in the future, then, the real burden on the nation will not amount to so much as forty per cent. In any case, however, the weight of the debt is a crushing one. In the year before the war we raised by taxation, or received as revenue from the Post Office and other sources, 198,243,000, or one and eightpence in the pound of the estimated total annual income of the country. During THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 75 the current year Mr. Austen Chamberlain expects to raise 1,035,150,000 from taxes and nearly four hundred millions from other sources. Three hundred millions of this latter, however, he expects to get by selling war stores, a source of revenue which must soon cease. He estimates the necessary expenditure at 1,184,102,000, and expects to pay 234,000,000 off the debt. This is a much better state of affairs than the Continental nations can show, but it is a desperately bad one for all that. It presupposes the raising by taxation of an amount equal to eight shillings in the pound of the annual income of the nation previous to the war. Again the question of prices comes in. Except in the cases of the unhappy people with fixed incomes, money earnings are everywhere higher than in 1914. The toll of the nation's income taken by the State will not, therefore, be so large, but I think it would be hard to show a case of any nation subjected to such a burden as we shall have to bear, without relapsing into poverty or finding relief by revolution. A disquieting factor in the case is the little confidence that can be given to the estimates both of receipts and expenditure. Last year the revenue exceeded the estimate by 170,000,000. On the other hand, the expen- diture amounted to 238,000,000 more than the original sum provided for in April 1919. 76 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA Mr. Chamberlain is certainly not entirely, and perhaps not to any great, extent, to blame for this wild estimating. The mad and wicked Russian policy of Ministers as a whole is chiefly responsible for the vast supplementary expendi- ture. Whatever the reason, however, it is perfectly clear that we cannot place much dependence on estimates which may readily be wrong on either side to an extent equal to the whole pre-war expenditure of the country. This uncertainty about the estimates is partly due to the erratic policy of the Coalition Govern- ment. It is obvious that the helmsman does not know how to steer or where he is going, a truly alarming state of things considering the rough and uncharted seas through which the ship of State is now sailing. Even more of it, however, arises from the unsettled condition of the national income itself. In normal times we may expect a moderate increase or be pre- pared for a possible slight decline in the amount brought annually under review of the Income Tax Commission, a larger or slightly smaller consumption of dutiable articles. In spite of fluctuations in trade, it is normally possible to arrive beforehand at a very close approxima- tion to the amount a proposed set of taxes will yield. But now, with prices and rates of profit swollen to abnormal dimensions, with no certainty how long the boom will last, estimates are THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 77 the merest guesswork. Who, for instance, can possibly say whether Mr. Chamberlain will actually receive the 220,000,000 he anticipates from excess profits duty ? How does he or any one else know whether it will actually be possible to realize 302,000,000 by the sale of war stores during the current financial year ? There is much uncertainty even about the old taxes as a whole. The conditions under which the estimates for them were made are so excep- tional that they may give a very misleading idea of those that will prevail before the financial year comes to an end. As far as the income tax is concerned, however, any remarkable change in conditions during this year will only affect the amount realized in that ending March 31, 1922. It would not surprise me if the Exchequer receipts are above or under the estimates by hundreds of millions again. I have no idea whatever whether they are likely to be less or more ; the one thing that would astonish me would be to find that Mr. Chamberlain has guessed aright. Some day, too, there may be no excess profits to tax, and certainly some day, and that very soon, there will be no war stores to sell. Had that been the case this year, instead of paying off 234,000,000 from the debt we should have a deficit of three hundred millions. And, of course, in reality there is a deficit, 78 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA even on this year's Budget. We start the year with a debt of 7,800,000,000 indeed, but with heavy stocks in hand to set against part of it. We propose to repay part of the money borrowed, but in order to do this and pay our way meanwhile, we are to sell nearly seventy millions more of our assets than we repay of debt. Business men and I suppose there are some men among the Coalition majority who understand business, however little they know about politics know that this is no real reduction of debt. Perhaps they might profitably reflect upon this, that out of an estimated revenue of 1,418,300,000, more than one-third, 522,000,000, is expected to come from two items excess profits duty and special receipts, that is, sale of war material, which are essentially temporary sources of income. If these resources had not been available, and if our expenditure remains at the present rate, when they are no longer available, it will be necessary to raise nearly 300,000,000 a year by increases on the permanent taxes, or by finding new ones to meet current expenditure, without paying off one penny of debt ! And that is on the assump- tion that the permanent taxes maintain their present quite abnormal high yield. It is expected that the income and super tax will produce 385,000,000, customs and excise 348,650,000 the first amount nearly double THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 79 and the second more than one and a-half times the total revenue of the State in 1913. The death duties are expected to realize 45,000,000. By doubling the income tax we might meet this and provide a small sinking fund to reduce the debt, again, however, on the assumption that taxes continue as productive as at present. The assumption, however, is quite unjustifi- able. Such an income tax would amount to an average duty of ten shillings in the pound on the amount brought under review of the Income Tax Commissioners for 1913, that is, on all incomes over 160 a year. Of course there would have to be a severe method of graduation, raising the taxes of the rich man within measurable distance of twenty shillings in the pound, and in that case it is pretty clear there would soon be no estate duties, for the conditions under which men accumulate estates from which to exact duty would have vanished. I go further ; I maintain that the conditions essential to capitalistic industry in competition with the other nations would be destroyed. Living, with customs and excise monstrously high, would be abnormally dear in England, trade would be strangled, the Dominions and America would be far more desirable countries for labour. The landowner and the capitalist could not pack up their lands and factories and depart for other climes, but thousands of 80 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA workmen could, and a wholesale exodus from this unhappy country could be safely predicted. Turning to the other side of the account, about 230,000,000 of the proposed expenditure is on account of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The entire abolition of these forces after those in receipt of pensions die out might render it unnecessary to increase the rates of income and super tax by more than about twenty per cent., and economies may be made in the Civil Service estimates. The Consolidated Fund charges, however, can only be reduced by paying off debt, and if the country is to remain a pros- perous and progressive one, and the debt is to be extinguished before our coalfields are worked out, the amount repaid each year should amount to hundreds of millions. If we consider this state of things in the light of possible contingencies abroad, and everything should be so considered now, there are broadly two possible alternatives : either the Continental belligerents may pay their debts, or they may be forced to repudiate them. I have already said that the position, at least of the greater States, is incomparably worse than ours. In every case the debt amounts to more than half, in some it must be very much more than the whole estimated wealth of the country before the war. The pre-war finance of Europe, too, was thoroughly unsound. THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 81 No adequate system of direct taxation existed, and the European States were, even before the war, gradually piling up debts. Lands have been devastated, wealth producers have been killed and maimed by millions, and production has shrunk to an appalling extent. It is merely as an hypothesis, then, not because I believe such a thing at all possible, that I consider how things will stand if the nations do resume payments of interest on their debts. In that case living will be dear in Europe, as in England taxation will be even heavier, industry will be crippled, and the people poverty-stricken to a degree almost impossible to imagine. Mean- time, beyond unhappy Europe, North and South America, Australia, South Africa, all the temperate lands of the world, will be subjected to 110 such crushing burdens. Partly, I fear, the populations of European lands will be starved, partly they will emigrate ; but I can see no other end for it, Europe must sink to a greater Spain, until at last the inevitable has been accepted and the crushing load of debt thrown off by repudiation. But though in this way Europe would be a weak competitor in our industries and, incidentally, a very poor market for our goods we should still have to face the relatively unhampered competition of the United States, and probably of our Dominions. Our industry would be at a ruinous disadvantage, 6 82 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA and I can see no possible prospect of our national income being maintained at a level high enough to support the necessary taxa- tion. It is far more likely, however, that all or most of the European debts will either be repudiated, or that some sort of a composition with the national creditors will be made, so as to reduce the burden of interest to some support- able amount. I am fully alive to the terrible misery such a measure must cause in Europe, the millions of people who will be reduced to poverty, the dislocation of industry, and the widespread bankruptcy that must ensue. Nothing but dire necessity will compel any self-respecting nation to take such a step only the necessity that knows no law. Nevertheless I cannot see how it can be avoided, certainly in Austria, almost certainly in the other leading nations. And, however deplorable the effects of repudiation, the nations would emerge from the experience debt free. They would no longer be carrying on their backs a dead weight of unproductive consumers. Practically all their inhabitants would be producers as well as con- sumers. Taxation would be comparatively light, and, when things had settled down a bit, and confidence had been restored, they would resume manufacturing and compete with us in neutral markets. THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 83 What would be the result ? We depend for our existence on our power to export to neutral markets enough of our manufactures to buy the food and raw materials necessary for our lives and industry. Cheap production and a moderate cost of living are essential conditions of doing this, for the goods we have to sell must not cost more than those made in other countries in competition with which they have to be sold. But if our industries have to be burdened with a yearly charge of nearly four hundred millions for interest, while Germany, France, Russia, and Italy are free from such an incubus, how can we possibly maintain our hold on the foreign markets by which we live ? I can see no prospect before us that way, except one of gradually declining population and trade, gradually increasing taxation as the number of taxpayers and the extent of their means diminish, until at last we reach strangulation point and the nation is driven into bankruptcy after all. Something like this is what really did happen to Spain under the Hapsburg monarchs, with the result that Spain ceased to count for genera- tions in the civilization of Europe. Her manufactures were crushed, and her populace reduced to beggary under the weight of taxation heavier than that of rival lands. In the long run no fate threatened to the British capitalist by responsible Socialists even of the extreme 84 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA Left could be worse than that. The notion of maintaining our position among the nations of the world without far-reaching retrenchment, and permanent relief from the burden of debt, is a dream of the ivory gate. That way I suspect hard-headed business men and Imperial pro- consuls send forth as many airy vanities as the poets, only their dreams are not quite so pretty. I am convinced that the return to anything like the conditions that prevailed before the war is one of them ; England will not long remain and will never again become a country carrying on an enormous world industry for the purpose of paying dividends to idlers. We may be ruined, we may become a second Spain, but if we do remain a wealthy country the profits of our industry will have to be applied to very different purposes, and first of all to getting out of debt. All roads lead to Rome, and in whatever direction we turn we are brought back sooner or later to the debt. There are obviously three main ways of dealing with it : 1. To shirk the subject as much as possible, merely manipulating the taxes from time to time, so as to provide as long as possible for the payment of interest and perhaps for reducing the principal. 2. To repudiate it altogether or in part. THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 85 3. To devise some great scheme for its repay- ment either immediately or over a term of years. To some extent it may appear that I have dealt with the first of these expedients already. I think at the best it is a very bad way, but even in a bad method there are worse ways and ways not quite so bad. Up to the present we have not even set about the first way properly. From the armistice until to-day no real reduc- tion has been made in the debt, nor has the Government outlined any scheme of reduction for the future. In the straitened circumstances of the time it is of great importance to bring about a balance between the income derived from permanent taxes and the expenditure which the Government intends to maintain. Until that is done, and a trustworthy estimate of income and expenditure laid before the financial world the credit of the country cannot be put on a good footing, and the Government enabled to obtain such temporary advances as it needs on the best possible terms. Now sales of war stores and the excess profits duty are, as I have already said, not permanent sources of revenue, neither can they properly be used to meet current expenses. Whatever money is obtained from such sources should be employed 1 in reducing the debt, and a definite balance 86 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA between income and expenditure obtained alto- gether apart from them. This would probably have been impossible in any case by now, and I am not complaining that it has not been done ; my complaint is that no plan has been produced for doing it in the future. It might be quite impossible, for instance, for the Government to reduce expenditure rapidly enough to come within the permanent income of the country for several years. What should be possible, however, is to put forward a programme of progressive reduction which, if carried out, would bring about a balance at some approximately ascertainable time. The most hopeful way in which this could be done is by a definite scheme of armament reduction, which the Government should pledge the country to carry out. This is something very different from, and, from the point of view of national credit, more important than a scheme of demobilization. With very little hope of seeing it carried out I outlined a scheme of demobilization three years ago * which I am convinced would have treated the soldiers far more justly than they have been, and would have made the reconstruction of industry very much easier. My way, however, would probably have left us for the present with a * See Britain after the Peace, by the author. THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 87 very much larger army than we have to-day. No man, I contend, should have been demobilized until he himself applied for his discharge, and every endeavour should have been made to persuade men, while fully admitting their right to leave the army when they chose to do so, not to demobilize themselves until they had found really satisfactory and permanent civil employment. But it is one thing to admit a war hero's right to stay in the army until he has got something better, and it is quite another to enlist a new man. If the Government, instead of enlisting more men for all services, as it is now doing, had definitely stopped recruiting altogether for the present, and announced their intention to bring a general scheme of disarma- ment before the League of Nations, declaring that if their scheme were approved, recruiting would not be resumed until by death, resigna- tions, and superannuation our forces were reduced to our agreed strength, they would have taken a most useful step towards making the League of Nations a reality and placing the credit of the country on a sure basis. It would have mattered comparatively little then if, for the time being, our expenditure had exceeded our income. Men with money to invest would have seen before them a time at which the national finances would adjust themselves and we might confidently have expected to borrow 88 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA what we require for demobilization and recon- struction on reasonable terms. For the same reason, if for no other, we should have avoided any action likely to involve us in great, or still worse, indefinite expenditure abroad. To incur by our Russian expeditions and our interference in that country a huge supplementary expenditure, to leave the country in doubt as to whether we might not soon be engaged in another big war, to allow the League of Nations to become a laughing stock, and to provoke Ireland to rebellion were from the financial point of view, to say nothing of even more vital questions, desperately unpatriotic policies. I know no meaning that can be attached to the word " patriotic " which does not include a care for the financial stability and internal welfare of the country ; our foreign policy since the armistice has given no considera- tion to this aspect of things whatever. Before approaching other methods of dealing with the debt, I may ask the reader to consider what the prospect for the nation is if we pursue our present policy ? I do not think that even by the wisest and most cautious policy domestic and foreign unless it is accompanied by organic changes we can avoid the decay and strangula- tion of our industry. We have got to inaugurate an entirely new system if the greatness of England is to be maintained. But look at THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 89 the present state of affairs ! Five per cent, stock is down to 83 at the time of writing, pound notes are not worth more than about 16s. in gold, Ireland is in open rebellion, India is furious over Armitsar, the native Egyptian army cannot be trusted in Egypt itself, and has to be banished to the Soudan while its own country is held down by British troops. Mean- time Lord Milner is forcing on the reluctant natives of West Africa and the Malay States a policy of Imperial Preference which they detest and foreign nations dislike. The demand for a Canadian Republic is openly advocated by at least a section of the Press of that country. Everywhere there seems to be an immense decline in the moral prestige of England. And moral prestige seems to me the only thing on which we can rely for the future as a cement for Empire. Can we, crushed with debt as we are, hold down this great Empire against its will ? Is it thinkable when, in spite of the follies committed by the Allies, the world has received an immense impulse towards nationality can there be any hope, even if we were justified in desiring it that this impulse will exhaust itself just at the point we may wish it to halt ? Is it not certain, should we attempt, armed to the teeth and taxed to the last shilling, to erect a barrier against the nationalist movements within the Empire, that it is not the discon- 90 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA tented Dominions that will fail to obtain their freedom, but England that will be ruined ? For our time, at least, and unless we are compelled to do it by the gradual decline of our trade, at any later time there is possibly little danger of a repudiation of our debt, what- ever foreign nations may do. It should not be assumed, however, that even such a desperate expedient is absolutely out of the question. I think there has always been a small section who have advocated this, from the Chartist days downwards, and during the war the idea has won more acceptance than many people know. I have met advocates of repudiation in several debates, and many of the soldiers proclaimed their unwillingness to spend years in the trenches and then work the rest of their lives to pay interest to people who had only lent money for the war. It might still, however, be safe to ignore these idealists, they are no doubt an insignificant minority, were it certain they would always remain so insignificant ; but as the strain upon the country imposed by the debt is realized, and as people see, as they probably will, other nations even more heavily burdened compelled to give up the attempt to pay their creditors, the repudiation party may readily become formidable. Indeed, bad as it would be, I fear such a policy may some day become unavoidable if no really comprehensive THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 91 and efficient means is adopted to deal with the matter in time. The arguments advanced by the advocates of repudiation, as far as I have heard them, are two : it is contended that no money really passes when a war loan is raised ; all that happens, in the vast majority of cases, is the transfer in a business ledger of a credit from one account to another ; and it is claimed that in a national emergency such as a war, when men are com- pelled to risk and often lose their lives for the nation, those who have the wealth should be compelled to pay the whole of the cost ; in fact, that war should be financed by a capital levy. The war debt and the interest paid on it are only further extensions of capitalism and a means of exploiting the industry of the people. Now it is little use saying that this is a very weak case from the point of view of reason, for it is not, in the long run, pure reason that will decide the matter. As a practical proposi- tion its force will depend much more on the circumstances under which it is uttered than on the soundness of the arguments in support of it. If men find themselves struggling to make a living, suffering from declining trade, and oppressed by ruinous taxes, they will welcome any policy that promises to give them relief. No wilder statement was ever made than that 92 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the " foreigner " would pay our taxes if we adopted Tariff Reform, and yet thousands of people believed this absurdity. We are in such a critical position to-day that we cannot be certain that conditions may not render such a propaganda formidable or even successful. It is, therefore, well to consider seriously the arguments advanced in its favour and what the probable result of repudiation would be. There is a crude fallacy involved in the contention that in a loan to the Government nothing passes and that all that takes place is an entry in a ledger. Of course there is a real transference of purchasing power. If a man instructs his banker to invest for him his deposit balance, say, 1,000, in war loan, it is not a mere fiction, but a solid fact that the investor cannot spend the money on a new motor-car, but the Government can immediately spend it on shells. Every money loan is exactly the same a transference of purchasing power from the lender to the borrower. The entries in the bank's ledger are not the essence of the transaction at all, they are merely the means adopted to record it. You may indeed dispute the justice of a system which permits of large fortunes accumulating in private hands, or with Ruskin deny the morality of interest on money at all. Neither of these is, however, the ques- tion : the point is that by whatever title the THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 93 lender has acquired purchasing power, he has as good a right to it after the loan was made as before. With regard to the other point : I do not deny for a moment the right of the State to commandeer such wealth as it requires to carry on a great war. In this case, indeed, I deny the right of any one to raise a conscientious objection to its money demands. The taxpayer is not morally responsible for the way in which the State spends the money it takes from him ; in that respect his rights and responsibilities are limited to voting for a change in Govern- ment and a new policy. Heaven forbid that I should be asked to endorse the justice of all the wars in which the Empire has taken part by which the National Debt has been created, or that my contributions in taxes towards the interest on the old debt should be taken for an admission that these wars were necessary ! We are all paying taxes and bearing losses caused by things of which, for one reason or another, we disapprove. Unless you are an anarchist you have no justification for refusing to pay rates or taxes imposed by an authority which you admit in other matters because you disapprove of this or that activity of the authority. Hampden's protest was of another character. He denied that the King was the taxing authority ; he did not discuss the wisdom or 94 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA unwisdom of ship money, and if Parliament had voted such a tax he would have been quite willing to pay. To refuse to take a personal part in a war is an entirely different matter. It is certainly the gravest thing any one can do to kill another man, and no one can escape the moral respon- sibility of refusing to do so unless absolutely convinced, first, that an occasion can ever arise to justify such a thing, and, secondly, that it actually has arisen in the particular case. It is the old distinction made by Douglas : My castles are my King's alone, From turret to foundation stone. The hand of Douglas is his own. This distinction must be clearly kept in mind if we are to steer a safe course between two dangers anarchy and despotism. To argue, as passive resisters did, that men have a right to refuse to pay rates because they object to the way in which they are to be used, is logical anarchy. It is simply impossible to carry on a State without spending money in ways of which some one may disapprove. Often, too, States being, like every other human institu- tion, very imperfect and fallible, the objector will be right and the State wrong ; if so, it is the right and even the duty of the citizen to protest against the policy pursued and to try THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 95 to get it changed, but it is not his duty to refuse to pay. You cannot have a State at all without assuming its right to tax and to spend the money raised by taxation according to the conscience of the Government and not according to the consciences of any minority of the individual citizens who take a different view. On the other hand, we must as clearly deny the State's right to compel any man to attend the State Church, to teach a doctrine which he does not believe, to take an oath if he is a Quaker, or to fight in any quarrel in which he does not agree with the rest of his countrymen. This is despotism, and is just as detestable when the State happens to be right and the individual wrong as in any other case. We must remember that, if we concede to the State the power to conscript men, we grant the right to compel them to serve in an unjust war and when the country is not really in danger. This is so because no State ever engages in a war, however criminal, which it admits to be unjust and unnecessary. To say that men should be compelled to serve only in a righteous war is to beg the question ; obviously, what is con- ceded is the power to conscript for any war the State chooses to declare righteous. I have, however, wandered from my point. I have given my reason for believing that the State is justified in conscripting wealth, even 96 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA of conscientious objectors. This, a Parliament of elderly men, mostly well off, refused to do ; they preferred to conscript men mostly younger and poorer than themselves. They did that thing they ought not to have done, and left undone the thing they ought to have done, and can therefore join in the general confession in church with perfect propriety. The fact remains, however, that the State did not take that way of raising money ; by far the greater part of the cost of the war was raised by loans. Now, a general levy on capital can be graduated according to ability to pay ; only that which the victims can spare without reducing them to poverty need be taken. Again, payment of a capital levy is universal among men having more than an agreed upon minimum of wealth. A war loan is on a different footing. Naturally, many people who could quite well afford it refuse to subscribe altogether : others put in only part of their fortune, while some invest in the new security every penny they have. All who do invest, however, have done essen- tially the same thing they have transferred purchasing power which they could have spent or otherwise invested to the State. Often they have sold their holdings in other stock to people who preferred private investments. Their title in abstract justice to the value they have invested is neither better nor worse than it THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 97 was before they made the change ; from the point of view of the honour of the nation, it is a great deal stronger. A perfectly healthy instinct has convinced the British people of this hitherto; it would be a sad falling off if it ceases to do so now. So long as the land and the leading industries of the country are not owned by the nation but by private individuals, it is chiefly they and not the people who could benefit by a repudiation of the debt. The debt is a kind of mortgage on the land and working capital of the nation. If the debts are repudiated on the Continent, we may be sure the measure will be accompanied by a confiscation of land and capital. It is within the power and should be the policy of the democracy, whatever the method adopted in dealing with the debt, to see that the weight of it is divided fairly among the wealthy classes, in proportion to each man's means, not according to the nature of his investments, while firmly maintain- ing the standard of living among the wage earners. The repudiation of the debt would be, in itself and its necessary consequences, an act of revolution. This is not an objection to it ; on the contrary, revolution is now a necessity for the nation. But it is the revolution of despair, not the revolution of creative adventure, 7 98 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA out of which we can build up a greater England, " a land fit for heroes to live in." It is a thing that would bring the destruction of the present order on in a moment and reduce everything to chaos. Repudiation would obviously create at once a large class of ruined bondholders without any means of living at all. Their position would be pitiable ; they would be a helpless and pathetic minority of the population, but they would nevertheless be an embittered and disorderly portion of it ; a potential " White Guard " on the flank of the progressive forces. But the effects of repudiation would not be confined to the bondholders alone. The whole fabric of our industry, as it is at present constituted, would necessarily collapse and that at once. Government stock is, to a very large extent, used as collateral or full security for business loans, and with it rendered valueless thousands of big firms would immediately become bank- rupt. Banks would fail all round us ; credit would be gone, and we should lose our power to import from abroad, without which it is impossible to feed our people. The whole responsibility for the management of industry would be flung in a moment on the authorities, on a revolutionary Government having in the eyes of the world no stability and no credit. We should be forced to carry out a wholesale THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 99 policy of confiscation to obtain the means to live, so that it would amount, from a capitalist's point of view, to a more sudden and not less painful method of extinction than the one previously considered, but it would involve fearful misery for the people. Bolshevism was possibly the only way out for Russia, and in spite of the crimes of the Bolshevists, it looks as though the Russian Revolution were an even greater thing for Russia than the French Revolu- tion, equally blood-stained, was for France. But such a state of anarchy in England would be much more terrible than in Russia. In Russia the food problem, acute as it was, was one of distribution. In many parts of the country food was plentiful ; where war has not actually passed over the land the largest class of the people, the peasants, have often had difficulty in disposing of their produce. In England, densely peopled, and living mainly by manufactures, it would be a very different matter. We depend absolutely on our credit abroad, and during the throes of such a revolu- tion as that of Russia we could expect no foreign credit. Repudiation of our debt would make England a hell. In the next chapter I shall consider a third method of dealing with the debt, but before doing so it may be well to sum up what has 100 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA been said on the character of the other two. Neither of them shows any prospect of renewed vitality to English capitalism. If we adopt the first, and endeavour to meet the problem by means of permanent taxes, aided by such imposts as excess profits duties and war profits levies, our industry will be hopelessly handicapped in the competition with those of less burdened nations. The lands of the New World, perhaps those of a revolutionized Europe, will be able to outbid us in all our foreign markets, and we shall settle down to a period of depres- sion and decay. In this way more slowly perhaps, but as certainly as in any other, our rich classes will cease to be rich, and our poor will become poorer than ever. For capitalism it is a method of lingering death, but of death all the same. Such expedients as excess profits duties at the expense of one section of the rich, will not help the class as a whole. There has been a disposition in some quarters to see in measures like a levy on war profits a means of funding the large floating debt, and to think that this would be an important step in solving our difficulties. The money taken from the war profiteers would certainly be a gain, but I am not altogether certain that it is not as well to leave a good proportion of the debt unfunded for the present, until at last we have summoned up courage to deal with the matter THE DILEMMA OF CAPITALISM 101 on very much broader lines. The chief gain in funding would be in peace of mind to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. With a large floating debt he must carry on continual negotia- tions with bankers ; he must renew Treasury bills ; he must continually worry about ways and means. Now I am not at all anxious at present to save our Chancellors of the Exchequer from worry ; the more worried they are the better I shall be pleased. Grey hairs gathering on the head of the Chancellor may possibly mean that the gravity of the national danger is dawning on him, and that some day he may realize the necessity of dealing with it effectually. Meanwhile a Chancellor of the Exchequer who is not worried, and very badly worried, is not doing his duty by the nation. For the putting off from year to year of any real attempt to face the problem is a means of making it ulti- mately more difficult than ever. As long as from year to year it is quite uncertain what the taxes will yield, whether some fresh levy to patch up things a little longer will be wanted next year, whether we are or are not going to be mixed up in some new military adventure, or whether any new and unexpected tax is to be imposed, and if so, what, the public mind must necessarily be unsettled, and business men must always be hampered and enterprise crippled by the prevailing uncertainty. Absence of 102 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA worry for the Chancellor means, not only worry, but further loss, for the nation. As far as the two methods of dealing with the debt which we have been considering in this chapter are concerned, it is simply a choice for the British capitalist between a lingering or a sudden death. I do not suppose that even this consideration will reconcile many wealthy men to what I have to propose in the following chapter, but from some of them, less deeply wedded to the luxury and outward show of modern fashionable life, what I have to say may win more favourable consideration when they see the alternatives. Their aid will not go very far, however. A great struggle lies before the young democracy of England, a struggle for life, for expansion, no less difficult though less bloody than the struggle of the trenches. CHAPTER V THE CAPITAL LEVY IN the last chapter I have dealt with two ways of meeting the problem of the debt, one of which might be called the " bourgeois," and the other the " Bolshevik " method, and seen reason to be convinced that they offered to the capitalist society only the choice between a slower or swifter manner of destruction. Unlike as they are, they have one demerit in common, they are neither of them based on an honest consideration of the question. Very little thought will suffice to show any one the grave danger to our industrial position, almost our very existence as a nation, in leaving the country burdened for an in- definite length of time with such a load of debt and no public assets ; while it needs as little reflection to realize, not only the injustice, but the immediate and terrible consequences of re- pudiation. Neither course would be acquiesced in by any one who had turned the matter over in his mind, unless he could think of no possible alternative. It is a relief, then, to turn to the consideration of an idea to which serious thought 103 104 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA has been given, to a scheme which would at least relieve the nation of an intolerable burden, while doing substantial justice to the creditors of the State. The proposal to extinguish the debt by means of a levy on capital has met with very little support outside the ranks of the Labour Party. It is true that Mr. Sydney Arnold, from the free Liberal benches, brought the matter to the attention of the House of Commons last year ; but even his leader, Sir Donald Maclean, was by no means enthusiastic in his support. Since then, I think the proposal has, on the whole, lost ground in Liberal circles ; for though many Liberals are in favour of a levy on capital, some of them at least seem only to contemplate a levy of 2,000,000,000, in order to get rid, not of the debt as a whole, but of the unfunded part of it. Many also are much more fond of discussing a war profits levy, a thing hopelessly inadequate. This is most unfortunate. It is really too important and too urgent a subject for any party to leave an open question. Finan- cial questions are not, like many others, matters that can wait to be brought up and dealt with at any time during a party's term of office. Any Government must present a Budget of some sort in its first and every succeeding session, and when financial matters are so critical as they are now, it is exceedingly important that any THE CAPITAL LEVY 105 party that appeals to the electors should disclose the general lines of its policy with regard to the debt. In the case of the Coalitionists, I suppose we must take it that their policy is represented by Mr. Chamberlain's Budget, together with some hope of recovering money from Germany. I, myself, expect very little from that source even for France and Belgium, for it seems to me impossible for Germany to pay anything but a fraction of the sums expected from her. As for us, our claims are much weaker, and I am convinced the recovery of anything worth taking into account is utterly hopeless. However, it is only by courtesy that Mr. Chamberlain's proposals can be called the " policy " of the Coalition. Of a very large part of the Government majority, the policy is much simpler. Put bluntly, it is a policy of not paying at all. Extremes meet, and if Sir Frederick Banbury and others of like mind had their way, we should have a sort of Tory repudia- tion, to compare with the Bolshevist method, brought about by the refusal of rich men to be taxed for the necessary service of the debt. It does not matter whether it is an excess profits duty or a war profits levy, they are equally opposed to it, while they offer no alter- native proposal. They hardly seem to realize that the debt is a stern fact, and that no interest 106 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA can possibly be paid on it until some one who has money has first been heavily taxed. The Labour Party, however, is definitely com- mitted to a levy on capital, and is thus, as compared to its rivals, in the fortunate position of having a definite principle which can be advocated by its candidates and considered by the electors. If this state of things continues among the parties, and Labour sticks to its guns, the party will probably call down upon itself a good deal more opposition at the next general election than will be aroused by any of its other proposals. The immediate effect may be to prevent it winning a good many seats which might otherwise be gained. Perhaps so ; but nothing in the long run can prevent the party that has a policy from defeating those that have none. Some subsequent election will certainly find the people tired of makeshifts and ready to return to power the only party with a thought-out plan. The levy on capital, besides being a most valuable proposal in itself, then, is likely soon to be one of the decisive practical questions in politics ; it will certainly be so unless some equally effective method of dealing with the debt can be devised. Under such circumstances, it calls for full consideration. The clearest statement of the case that I have seen is that given in Mr. Pethick Law- THE CAPITAL LEVY 107 rence's little book, A Levy on Capital. The book was written before the end of the war and the figures used by Mr. Lawrence could now be made nearer to the actual facts. They are, however, sufficiently near for my purpose. Mr. Lawrence proposed a graduated levy on capitals of 150 and upwards. He suggests that this 150 should be free of tax, but that on the next 50 of capital a duty of 3 per cent., i.e. 30s. should be levied. On the third hundred pounds of an estate of 300, 6 per cent, or six pounds would be charged. Thus a man with such a capital would pay : On the first 150 . . . . nil. On the next 50 . . . . l 10 On the last 100 600 300 7 10 At intervals, as capitals rise in amount the rates would rise progressively to 21 per cent, on wealth between 1,500 and 2,000; 30 per cent, on 5,000 to 7,500, and so on. By this means Mr. Lawrence expected to obtain wealth to the amount of 6,000,000,000 which, as he then estimated, would with the help of 1,000,000,000 to be repaid by our Allies clear off the war debt altogether. Even now it would nearly do so, if, as he hoped, our Allies and Dominions to whom we lent money in the war 108 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA do ever pay us a thousand millions out of the eighteen hundred they owe us. I cannot feel so sanguine and therefore think the rates might have to be increased. Little money would be obtained and needless hardship would be inflicted by taxing such small capitals as 200. The first thousand pounds in each estate is exempted in most proposals for a capital levy. Mr. Law- rence has, however, given us an excellent text- book on the subject, and I have no other objec- tion to raise. Mr. Lawrence then proceeds to estimate the effects such a levy would have on people having various incomes and capitals. The capital levy, by relieving the Budget of the burden of in- terest and sinking fund on 6,000,000,000, ob- viously renders possible a great reduction in taxation. The tax collector would no longer be such an object of dread, and after the first shock, industry would have a far better chance to recover. Taking the estimates made by him two years ago, and starting with his second instance, that of a small shopkeeper having a capital of 900, personal effects worth 100 and an income of 300 a year, he reckons it would be possible to reduce this man's taxation from 30 to 14 a year. Against this, there would be a capital levy of 93 which he would have to pay, equivalent to a further tax of 5 a year. In the long run, therefore, the capital levy THE CAPITAL LEVY 109 would mean to him a saving of 11 a year. Another instance given is that of a business man having 48,000 capital, 2,000 personal effects, and 4,000 a year income. To such a man, also, the capital levy would come as a relief, and his permanent net income after the levy would be 2,477 against 2,381, which Mr. Law- rence estimates will be all that would be left to him after paying his taxes, if no levy is made. These reductions in the amounts paid by poor and moderately rich people are rendered possible by the heavy rate of graduation against the very rich. Mr. Lawrence ends his examples with that of a millionaire having an income of 50,000 a year. Without the levy, this man's income, after paying his taxes, would be reduced to 19,000 ; after paying the levy and allowing for the consequent reduction to his yearly taxa- tion, he would have a net income of 13,000 a year. It looks as though eight, rather than six thousand millions, would have to be raised ; for I am, as already said, profoundly sceptical about getting any of the money we have lent to our Allies or of recovering an indemnity from Germany. On the other hand, there is an important consideration not touched on by Mr. Lawrence, which would probably lessen the amounts in the pound required very greatly. There has been an enormous increase in the 110 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA money value of the visible assets of the country since the last year of peace. Stated in terms of money, almost everything land, houses, fac- tories, machinery, furniture that existed before the war has increased so much in value that you can often get double for an old machine to-day what was paid for it when it was new. This is notorious. It does not, of course, mean that the country is really richer ; on the con- trary, roads, houses, railways, bridges, machinery, even land are generally in very much worse condition than they were in 1914. It is a very important consideration in our present inquiry, however. To some extent, no doubt, this in- flation of values is due to temporary conditions, the cutting off of foreign supplies accounting for much. A far greater part of the inflation is in all probability permanent. To-day you will hardly be able to buy a house which originally cost five hundred pounds for a thousand indeed, the price is very likely to be twelve or fifteen hundred. Nor do the new houses that are being built offer much prospect of such prices being cheapened when the supply becomes more ade- quate, for it costs much more than twice as much to build a house to-day as it did in 1914. To however great an extent, then, the land and capital of the country have been let down during the war, Mr. Lawrence's proposed levy of 6,000,000,000 on a valuation of them made THE CAPITAL LEVY 111 to-day would certainly involve much lower per centual rates than he calculates. He was, how- ever, quite justified in practically ignoring this consideration, as, while it is clear there has been a great inflation in money values, any attempt to give an estimate of how much it is would as yet be mere guesswork. To obtain any stated amount, however, it may be taken as certain that it would only be necessary to impose considerably lower rates on estates than those anticipated by Mr. Lawrence. The fact that Mr. Lawrence's figures would have to be revised now that the war being at an end we are in a better position to tell exactly how much the debt will be, does not affect their value as examples of the working of a capital levy. Whatever the actual amounts to be dealt with, a capital levy would be a great relief to the poor and moderately well off tax- payer, while it would fall heavily on the rich. To both, however, it would have one great advantage, it would free them for the rest of their lives from a continual source of worry, while at the same time restoring the credit of the State and rendering possible the maintenance of our position in the world as a trading country. Earlier in his book Mr. Lawrence gives a very clear account of the way in which a capital levy could be imposed. It is obvious that very few could pay the amount of the levy in 112 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA cash. Other alternatives would have to be offered at the option of the taxpayer. Equiva- lent values in certain specified forms of wealth as the Government's own stock, land, railway shares, etc., would be accepted as payment. In other cases mortgages to the amount of the levy on approved security could be accepted by the State ; where necessary arrangements would be made for payment of the principal and in- terest of the levy over a term of years. Thus, what would emerge from the whole thing would be something like this : 1. Some of the levy being paid in cash or in Government stock, there would be an immediate reduction in the principal of the debt. 2. A larger amount would be paid by handing over to the State permanently quantities of land and approved railway and other shares, and similar forms of wealth. 3. The State would hold interest-bearing mortgages on various properties considered satisfactory as security for the ultimate payment of the levy. 4. In addition there might be a number of deferred payments, where men would be paying off their share of the levy with interest over a term of years. THE CAPITAL LEVY 113 It is evident that such a state of things implies in itself an important social change. The State would become a shareholder and sometimes complete owner of a large variety of business undertakings ; and it would be incomparably the greatest landowner in the country. Along- side of businesses carried on by private enter- prise, there would be a great increase in the number of others in which the State would be sole owner ; while in a yet greater number of instances, though not owning the business, the State would yet possess voting power and in- fluence. An immense and permanent impulse would be given to State Socialism and, in any form of industry in which State control proved to be efficient, private enterprise would ere long die out. Again, the graduation of the levy would, for a time at least, go far to abolish the millionaire class. The great landed estates would of neces- sity be broken up and a heavy blow dealt at the principle of aristocracy. I think it could never again recover its ancient prestige. The political and social power of the new and the old rich would be much diminished. With perhaps a fifth or a sixth of the land in every country directly controlled by the State or handed over under some arrangement to the local authority, there would necessarily be a considerable per- centage of the population in each district to 8 114 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA whom the local landlords could apply no political pressure. Farmers and labourers who felt their personal freedom in any way curtailed would, frequently at least, have the option of escaping from the authority of the private landowner and obtaining land or work under the public authority. Almost certainly a large part of the land ceded to the State would be managed on a different principle from that remaining in private hands. State or municipal management would, in the nature of the case, be largely directed by two considerations, a financial and a social. Game preserving and fox-hunting would not be considered at all. It is to be feared that a very much more important matter than hunting might be neglected, a thing for which, with all their faults, the landowners of England did care somewhat, I mean the character of English country life, the ordered freedom and beauty of English scenery. We don't want to see wire fences and corrugated iron roofs permanently dividing and disfiguring the small holdings of the future. A capital levy would open the way for small holdings, but it is very important that they should be so formed as to develop and emphasize the characteristic note of our land, and should not appear in any way as excrescences upon its surface. Socially, the pressure of the electorate would compel the State to develop small holdings to meet the land THE CAPITAL LEVY 115 hunger of the people. Members of Parliament would come to Westminster pledged to see that the public lands, wherever there were public lands, should be opened up to the people. Financially, the State could give no countenance to anything that decreased production. There would be no room for foxes or pheasants on the State's demesne. Now it would be impossible for a life so different in its methods and ideals to exist alongside the old system without having a pro- found influence upon the latter. The peasantry would stand far less in fear of the squire ; they would be far more readily influenced by the thoughts and aims of an outside world now brought so near them. The prestige of the squirearchy would be gone : they would be less envied and less feared ; their ideals would count for less, even in the country, and they would bring less political and social prestige with them when they came to town. Reduced rela- tively in resources, the greater landowners would probably have to give up some of their mansions, which would either fall into decay, be taken over by the public authorities, or be converted into hotels. The smaller landlords would generally have to adopt a reduced style of living, or at least one that would be relatively reduced as compared with that kept up by professional men and public servants living in their neighbour- 116 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA hood. In the end, they would be driven out by the advance of the new world growing up around them, and their sons and daughters be dispersed over the world, earning their living and acquiring new ideas. With the capitalist class a similar evolution would begin. Here, however, there is little fear that State control would vulgarize anything ; the modern industrial town cannot be made any worse than it is. But the State would own many shares in railway and dock companies ; it would own, or at least share largely in the management of thousands of industrial enter- prises. The whole political influence of Labour would be used to insist that its industrial stand- ards should be put into force, wherever the State had sufficient voting power to do so. A standard would be set up and widely applied to which private firms would find it necessary to conform. Once started, too, there would be a strong tendency for the State to take advantage of its stronger credit and greater capital to help those concerns in which it was financially in- terested in their competition with the remainder, by obtaining raw materials on the cheapest terms, by organizing transport, and by securing the services of the most experienced organizers as Civil Servants. The formation of rings and trusts, the victimization of Trade Unionists, and all the more objectionable features of capitalist THE CAPITAL LEVY 117 power would be very difficult ; while the capital- ist, like the landowner, would find it impossible to preserve his prestige in a new world having ideals entirely alien to his own. Nevertheless, if I were a rich man, I should not oppose Mr. Lawrence's scheme. Again I must insist that it is not a question of whether his plan is agreeable ; the question is : Is it less disagreeable than others ? The situation itself is an intensely disagreeable one, and cannot be dealt with in any pleasant way. At present, the typical rich man who has invested, say, 100,000 in war loan, finds himself in this posi- tion : he can, if he likes, receive 5,000 a year in interest, provided he is willing first of all to pay 5,000 yearly in additional income and super tax into the Treasury. On the other hand, he can kick against the pricks and refuse to pay his taxes in which case he won't get his interest, and his war loan will be valueless. If he has bought no war loan, or if he has in- vested an unusually large part of his fortune in it, he will of course pay more or less than he receives, but taking the rich as a class, the instance is true : they put the money into the Treasury first and take it out again afterwards. And no one of the three ways so far discussed of dealing with the debt, nor for the matter of that any other that man can devise, will make any real difference in the substantial fact. To 118 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA continue paying the interest on the debt, how- ever, will mean that British industry will be subjected to a constant handicap in competition, certainly with some, and probably with most other nations. It means, for the rich man, that while the taxes he has to pay will not diminish, the income out of which he has to pay them will almost certainly decline. Repu- diation of the debt means certainly the cessation of all interest on his loans and a shrinkage of all his British investments. It means, too, national anarchy, a revolutionary Government, a considerable chance for him of being shot in a " Red Terror." A levy on capital would not, from a financial point of view, be the worst expedient for the wealthy class as a whole, while it would give them a great assurance of peace and security. Mr. Pethick Lawrence is to be praised above all things for looking the problem in the face, and unless some one else does this, and produces a rival scheme equally far-reaching and equally effective, I have little doubt that, with modifi- cations, it will sooner or later be put in force. I think this, because it seems to me that both the power and to some extent even the inclination to resist are likely to be broken down by circum- stances. The dilemma of capitalism is a very real thing ; it is a thing people will be compelled to face sooner or later just as Mr. Lawrence has THE CAPITAL LEVY 119 faced it. Until some effective way of dealing with the debt has been found, finance will be a constant source of trouble and disappointment. Taxation will be at an enormous rate, very likely considerably higher than it is to-day, prices of Government stock will be low and everything else high. Yet there will be constant danger of a great deficit, so that every Budget will be an object of terror, both for the possibilities it may bring of new taxation and for its unsteady- ing effect on trade. The debt, in fact, will carry on its own propaganda, forcing the attention of the people to its unwelcome presence, and gradually convincing them of the necessity of finding some method of dealing with it once for all. This necessity will be brought home very vividly to successive Chancellors of the Ex- chequer. I wish I was as certain of the fulfil- ment of other hopes as of my desire to worry the heads of the Treasury. The levy on capital thus holds the field ; it is, as yet, without serious rival, and unless one arises the party advocating it will probably ere long get an opportunity to put it in force, with the entire approval of the middle and working classes, and perhaps even with the sullen assent of the rich. Yet I am not certain that it is the best plan possible. I think a method could be devised more just as between the various forms of capital, that would leave 120 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the way easier for the reorganization of the country afterwards. There is, after all, a perfectly healthy instinct behind the demand for a special tax on war profits. This feeling is not by any means confined to Radicals or Labour men, indeed I suspect it is rather less influential with thinking democrats than with people who generally pay little attention to politics. It is felt to be a shameful thing that any one should make money out of the needs of a nation for which so many thousands have sacrificed their lives. If the confiscation of all war profits could be effectively carried out and yielded an adequate sum to dispose of the debt, most people would jbe very well pleased. The war was not a gain but a loss to the national wealth, and it is really the duty of those who share in that wealth to bear their fair proportion of the loss, certainly not to make any profit. But an excess profits tax, exempting many industries, such as farming, which it is well known have made large profits during the war, or even any such tax planned out and levied without favouritism, is a very clumsy expedient. Excess profits in industries above the average in peace time certainly give little indication of the real profiteering due to the war. I have already pointed out the great increment in money value of the land, industrial plant, and THE CAPITAL LEVY 121 other visible wealth of the country since 1914. This enhancement of values in things actually in existence before the war has taken place even where serious deterioration owing to wear and tear has reduced the practical usefulness of the things themselves. Machines, which would have had to be sold as scrap metal in better times, have brought more at sales than their original prices when new. In the aggregate, there must be a much greater sum involved in this form of profiteering than in any touched by the excess profits tax. Where, as in all forms of capital, property is subject to decay, the matter is less serious, but in the case of rural land values, in view of the fact that prices are almost certain to be permanently raised, if not to their present level, at least to one much higher than that prevailing before the war, the change involves a permanent enrichment of one of the non- productive classes of the community. Mr. Law- rence's scheme would certainly be strengthened by a heavy duty on land values to recover this unearned increment from the landowners, but it would still leave much to be desired from the point of view of even justice between various forms of property. For all forms of property have not increased even in money value. When we turn from visible assets to Consols, holdings in municipal 122 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA debts, debentures and mortgages given by building societies, etc., there must have been a formidable shrinkage in selling values, and with fixed rates of interest a serious falling- off in the purchasing power of incomes. The position of people of small means living on such investments is pitiable in the extreme, and there is little justice in adding to their present troubles a demand for a levy on capital at the same rate as that imposed on an equivalent investment, the selling price and annual profit of which has increased perhaps two- or three-fold. Suppose the case of two people, one of whom had a thousand pounds invested in a house the other the same sum in Consols before the war. At present, the former can easily sell his house for two thousand pounds and, when the Rent Restriction Act expires, get double the old rent for it. Even with the Act in force, he can add forty per cent, to the old rent. The unfortunate owner of Consols, however, cannot get more than six or seven hundred pounds for the stock for which he gave a thousand in 1914, while his income as long as he holds Consuls will be exactly the same in amount and about half what it was in purchasing power. Again, the capital levy could extinguish the debt and, coupled with the virtual abolition of armaments, would place the country in a position in which advance would be possible. THE CAPITAL LEVY 123 But it would still be very difficult. The reader may have been struck by the strange half-col- lectivist, half-individualist social order I have attempted to describe as emerging after the capital levy. Such a state of things would, under ordinary circumstances, be an advance upon the past. A gradual transition from the old order to the new, " from un-Socialism to Socialism," as the Fabian Society once phrased it, is the method hitherto considered inevitable and even desirable by most Socialists. No wise person wants to see any system, even a bad system, thrown out of gear all at once ; evolu- tion is normally to be preferred to revolution. But the war has already thrown everything out of gear ; it is in itself a revolution. And there is a profound difference between the Socialization imposed, so to speak, on the nation by a capital levy, and that which would have occurred at any stage in the taking over of land or industrial capital in any process of orderly evolution. By such a method capita] would have been acquired only as some more or less definite plan had been formed for its management. Such land would have been nationalized, or taken over by the municipalities as it was wanted for some definite social purpose ; industries would be communized as they became or tended to become monopolies. The State would act as it was ready and only when it was ready to act. But 124 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the capital levy would hand over to the nation land or capital, not as the nation wanted it, but very largely according to whether the individual rich man found it to his convenience to pay in kind rather than in money. The result would be a curious hotch-potch of properties scattered about the country, over some of which the ownership of the State would be complete, of others in which the State would be part owner, and of large areas over which it would have no control at all. There would probably be much friction between the two systems, and it might be necessary to round off many State properties by purchasing those near to them in order to make them workable. Unless we had a heavy tax on land values and took powers to purchase land on the basis of its declared value for taxa- tion purposes, the State would certainly be heavily overcharged for what it bought in this way. Again, for a long time, we should have numerous survivals of the various class interests which have rendered progress difficult in the past when the nation had fewer other difficulties to face. These would be a very great handi- cap now that we shall have to undertake a great reconstruction, a work of creative adventure on a scale undreamt of in the past. I do not like to think of Young England being hampered in this way ; I should like to give it a fair start off THE CAPITAL LEVY 125 in the world. We are now, as it were, in a tangled forest where no light can penetrate. We have to cut our way through the forest to the open air, and I should like to see the road cut as straight and broad as possible. The capital levy is one way out, but it is a slow and cir- cuitous way. If no other is possible, we may have to be content with it, but I think we can do even better. The land valuation ordered by Asquith's Government and carried out by Lloyd George was virtually complete when the war broke out. Adding the land of Ireland and allowing for a few incomplete valuations, it showed that the unimproved value of the land is about six thousand millions. Incidentally, the survey did more than that. The gross as well as the net value of each estate was given and recorded, the net value being ascertained after deducting all improvements. The gross value was not published, but it is known by the Department. Thus the value of an immense part of the wealth of the country, buildings, improvements, railways, etc., at pre-war prices can be known. Any higher value put on these things already in existence before 1914 is an increment due to the war, and where anything is sold at a higher price we have a case of profiteering. It is a different matter of course in the case of an improvement, of additional buildings or plant 126 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA put up during the war itself. Such improve- ments would be quite fairly valued on the basis of the cost to the owner at the time he made them. Now I propose that the whole land of the country, with the buildings, railways, and plant upon it as they were in 1914, shall be taken over by the nation at the gross valuation recorded in the books of the Land Valuation Department, and the owners compensated by Government five per cent, stock to the amount of the valua- tion. This transaction should, I think, be carried through at one stroke, in so far as the transfer of title is concerned, and Government bonds for eighty per cent, of the value recorded in the Department's books paid over at once. The remaining twenty per cent, might be held over until it could be ascertained whether any exceptional dilapidations had occurred since the valuation. If there were none, or only deprecia- tion due to fair wear and tear, the balance could then be handed over in bonds with five per cent, interest in cash. Numerous cases would, however, arise where properties had changed hands, generally at greatly augmented prices, since the valuation. In these cases, on production of evidence as to the prices paid, the new owners should be compensated in full whatever the amount they had paid, and the difference between the official THE CAPITAL LEVY 127 valuation and the new price recovered wherever possible from the original vendors by means of a war profits tax. But the adjustments of claims arising out of the transfer should be dealt with at leisure by Commissions appointed for the purpose, failure to come to an agreement being settled by arbi- tration, or, in the last resort, by test cases in the Law Courts. The nation should take posses- sion of the properties at once, and thus inaugurate what would be in reality a new era. It is evident that by such a measure, far from getting rid of a debt of eight thousand, we should have increased the national liabilities to almost twenty thousand million pounds. On the other hand, we should have handed over to the State income-yielding assets which, at present values, would greatly exceed the amount of the increase. We should have to face an annual payment for interest of about 1,000,000,000, together with at first very heavy payments for debt redemp- tion. But the transaction once carried through would give us a much freer hand than any other method as yet considered. Further than that, as between the nation and the propertied classes as a whole and also as between different sections of property holders, it would enable us to act with substantial, if not perfect, justice to all claims. Improvements or new buildings added since the valuation was taken should be paid for at cost, 128 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA on production of evidence as to the amounts paid on account of them. To deal with the latter aspect of the matter first. I have already said that it is a sound ethical instinct that convinces so many people that no one should make profit out of the war. I go further. To the nation as a whole the war brought, not a profit, but a gigantic loss. In this common loss all who are able to bear it should share according to their means. The war has brought fortunes to some, while creating a pitiful class of " new poor," struggling on narrower means to cope with inflated prices. The plan proposed at once takes over for the State, which alone has any title to it, the incre- ment in money value due to the war, while refunding to the individual the same amount in money as his estate was worth before it. But, it will be correctly urged, this is no real equivalent, a real equivalent would be an iden- tical amount of purchasing power. A great, and almost certainly to a large extent permanent, increase in prices has taken place meanwhile, and a man who receives 10,000 Government stock for a place worth that sum six years ago will find himself a very much poorer man. I answer that is his share of the common loss. And if he be a person of moderate means, I do not know how we can now arrive at a better measure of it. There is certainly not a greater THE CAPITAL LEVY 129 amount of consumable commodities being dis- tributed in the country now than there was before the war, and if we take the quality of the things we get into account, margarine in- stead of butter, inferior bacon, inferior cloth, houses out of repair, etc., there is less, not more, real wealth than there was before the war. The inflation of prices enables some people to escape their share of the loss and hand it on with crushing weight to those whose incomes are inelastic. As between the forms of capital, the burden is borne mainly by holders of mort- gages, debentures, and Consols, the value of which has heavily depreciated, at the same time that that of visible wealth has increased. As between one form of property and another, then, I hold that my proposal tends to equalize matters. As between large holders of any kind of property and moderate or small fortunes in the same, it does nothing to graduate the burden according to means. That is a matter that must be dealt with in another way.* From the point of view of the nation as a whole, this scheme goes far to make an end of the shareholding and rent-receiving classes and to substitute for a complex of non-producers of various sorts one uniform class of fund- holders. The dead hand of the mere shareholder or the landlord is deprived of all direct control * See Appendix. 9 130 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA over industry and enterprise, the whole of which can now be placed in the hands of the actual producers, the workmen, the managers, and the technical and clerical staffs. With these the State could henceforth negotiate directly. The political influence of the parasitic classes would be reduced to their voting power, and would no longer be a serious hindrance to the nation in any scheme it proposed to undertake. The great majority of unearned incomes coming directly under the eyes of the authorities, who as payers of interest on the debt would know exactly how much money every one received, and would have the value of each estate as a means of assessing succession duties, it would become possible to distribute the national burden as fairly between the millionaires and the smaller holders of stock as the original transfer had divided it between different forms of property. It would be easy to put in force any scheme of graduation decided upon, while the work of collection would be simplicity itself. It would only be needful to deduct from every man's interest the amount of his income tax every half year and send him the balance. Meantime, there would be an immense annual sum, probably about 1,000,000,000, to pay in interest, and a heavy sinking fund should be provided. As a means of paying these, we should have the earning power of the nation in THE CAPITAL LEVY 131 possession of practically the whole of its land and capital. The country would take over a great going concern, subject to a mortgage of, say, 20,000,000,000. Whether such a debt would be a crushing burden or not would largely depend upon the energy and initiative of the Young England which has already been taking shape beneath the crust of the old. Are the forces of Co-operation and Trades Unionism, representing as they certainly do a higher ethical conception than that of capitalism, capable of forming a new national economy as or more efficient ? Is the Socialist propaganda, true certainly from the standpoint of the idealist, true also from that of the practical man ? Has it been reinforced with a new elasticity and freedom by the teachings of the Guildsmen ? If this plan were adopted, Young England would have committed itself to a great adventure, and it would be for the young manhood and womanhood of the nation to prove themselves worthy of it. But though all would depend upon the energy of the young nation, it would, I think, start upon its task under more favourable conditions than under any other scheme hitherto proposed. It should be noticed that this method of nation- alization is in effect a levy on capital. Land and capital are to be taken over, not at their present- day money value, but mainly at prices for which 132 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the same things could have been sold before the war. Now, though there may be reductions, and even very great reductions on present prices, when world production has been restored to its old level, I think it must be a very long time before things will be cheap again. Something must be done to reduce the vast amount of paper currency that has depreciated the purchasing power of money all over the world. Here it will be necessary to make the pound note, actu- ally as well as theoretically, convertible into gold. This may involve the calling in of a great amount of paper money, but even when enough has been withdrawn from circulation and the pound is again worth its nominal value even in America, there will certainly be a much larger amount of currency in use than there was before the war. There will be strong competition for raw materials throughout the world, and a brisk demand for building materials, clothes, and machinery. In effect, I think the world, when it does at last settle down again, will find that there has been a permanent all-round ad- vance in prices, probably to not less than double those prevailing before the war. Now the burden imposed on industry by the interest on the debt is not necessarily defined by the amount of money paid. The real burden is in the pur- chasing power, the share in the total wealth production of the nation which the money THE CAPITAL LEVY 133 enables the fundholders to command. The higher prices are, the smaller share the fund- holders get ; when prices fall their share is automatically increased. It is the general rise in the cost of living that has pressed so hard on the old fundholders ; they get so much smaller a share of the commodities produced by the nation for their money. If, then, pro- duction under the new system can be maintained at the level of the old, the real toll on industry will be nothing like so heavy as would appear from its money value. I think it would be much less burdensome than that exacted by the receivers of rents and dividends before the war. Out of the profits of industry and by taxa- tion, however, the money would have to be paid, and there is no doubt at all that it could be paid. When the returns from industry were poor, a graduated income tax, while giving to the smaller fundholders every penny of their interest, would enable us to deduct a larger proportion than usual from the dividend of the wealthy man ; when the earnings of the nation were good, the rate of taxation might be reduced ; but at least this way it would be possible to avoid in this country the alternative of repudia- tion, which seems inevitable in many lands, and achieve our revolution without anarchy and bloodshed. 134 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA And the nation in facing the gigantic task before it would be able to put into the work its full productive energy. It is only the para- sitic classes that would disappear from the scene, retiring to whatever places they preferred to spend their income in the way most pleasing to them. The real pith and sinew of the nation would remain. Organizing experience and ability would still be wanted, probably for many years it would command a very high price, the skilled chemist and engineer would be more in demand than ever ; no man or woman who knew how to do anything useful and who wanted to do it need fear lack of employment ; while all could be assured that their efforts were not going to increase any one's dividends, but that the wealth they created was being used for the benefit for all alike. The progress of science and invention would be all in their favour, rendering it easier to increase production, and shortening the time needed to deliver the country from its burden of debt. All would depend upon the common enthusiasm, the spirit of the new patriotism aroused, on the solidarity of the workers whether with hand or brain. At the same time I recognize the difficulty of the task. England's industrial position will be hard to maintain. Old markets have been lost during the war and new ones may be hard to find. We depend mainly on foreign raw THE CAPITAL LEVY 135 materials and these must for long be dear. I have not space in this book to deal with the developments that I think will be necessary in the industry of the country, and can only here refer the reader to the fifth chapter in Britain after the Peace for an account of the conditions which seem to me likely to prevail, and the way in which we could deal with them. I suspect, however, that if the will of the people is strong enough, ways will not be hard to find, either to secure for England this new start in life, or to make the best use of it after. CHAPTER VI EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA WHATEVER method we may adopt to deal with our difficulties at home, other nations will have as great, often far greater, troubles to face. England will not only be changed herself, but she will be part of a changed world, in which she will have to find her place. The dominant force in the world that has been blown to pieces by the explosion of 1914 can best be defined as Capitalist Imperialism. We had, in the first place, a rapidly expanding world commerce, based on a greatly increased power of production through machinery. Immense capitals came largely under the ownership and still more largely under the control of a new rich class, who were continually seeking further invest- ments at home and abroad for the surplus wealth they gained by manufactures and trade. With this the mechanism of commerce and invest- ment was steadily developed and improved. The strong-box of the miser became a thing of the past, and stockbrokers and bankers would find for his modern representatives much more pro- 136 EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 137 fitable and often quite as safe investments for their money. Nevertheless, accumulation tended always to outrun the possible means of disposing of it ; there was generally money seeking in- vestment, either in speculative enterprises or in some " gilt-edged " security. Here was one of the many ways in which capitalism was drawn into politics. The spirit of aggrandisement was still strong in the world's rulers, while the instinct of self-defence impelled each nation to attempt to out-distance its neigh- bours in strength of armament. This state of things gave food to the military spirit. There is a natural tendency in any profession to magnify its own importance. This is equally the case when the further extension of a pro- fession would be in reality a good, a bad, or an indifferent thing. The merchant complains that the Government neglects trade interests, the scientist demands endowment of research, the painter complains that the public cares nothing for art, and Swinburne lamented the popular ignorance of the minor Elizabethan dramatists 1 It is not, then, due to any special vice on his part that the soldier throughout the ages has always tried to magnify his office, but he has far more favourable conditions for doing so than any one else, except perhaps the priest. He can always persuade the people that the " country is in danger," and does so all the more easily 138 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA because he himself firmly believes it. He has nearly always succeeded in getting a very large part, generally by far the larger part, of the public revenue spent upon the Army. In a previous book * I tried to sketch the pro- gress of militarism from primitive savagery to modern times. Briefly, militarism generally tends to take all the money the taxpayers of the nation can possibly be persuaded or com- pelled to pay in time of peace, and to borrow all that the people will lend into the bargain. Thus the Continental States, even before the war, were steadily increasing their national debts. Strangely enough, this state of things fitted well into the capitalist system. Com- mercialism, whatever its other faults, should normally be anti-militarist ; and for the greater part of last century the trading classes were notably pacific. Their influence was directed towards Free Trade, peace and good will among nations ; Cobden and Bright were their most representative statesmen. Later came a marked change, and it is worth while studying the reason. Peace and invention had developed an enormous power of production ; the wealth of the business community increased to such an extent that capital accumulated in the hands of " big business " men faster than it could find invest- ment. Nor did men desire only investments * Britain after the Peace, EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 139 in commercial enterprise. It was often attrac- tive to accept security, or what was thought to be such, even at a low rate of interest. In this way widows could be provided for, and men could leave the world confident that their families were secure against the fear of poverty. Here militarism and capitalism met on common ground. Militarism on the Continent and in " backward " countries was continually making deficits, giving occasion for new loans on the security of the taxes, a very attractive state of things for financial magnets on the look-out for " gilt- edged " investments for surplus funds. Mili- tarism, again, brought into existence powerful armament firms apparently almost as safe and much more profitable than Government loans. Far apart as they were at one time, capitalism and military imperialism had come to dovetail into one another admirably. True, in England, things were not quite so pleasant as abroad. Militarism meant here a high income tax ; on the Continent, the whole and not only part of the burden could be placed on the working classes. But of course all depended upon whether the securities created were in reality " gilt-edged." People put their money into such investments because they were confident it would be safe, and that safety depended upon there being no really big war. The state of things I have 140 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA been describing has passed away, there is now no gilt-edged security and, on the Continent, no surplus capital either. The holders of Govern- ment stock, if they have any choice in the matter at all, will have to choose between losing their money altogether or paying it themselves in crushing taxation. After all, it is dangerous to go into partnership with the Army. The Army, too, was the only means by which the Imperialist States could be kept together, and the weaker nations controlled. After 1870, the armed peace seems to have effectually smothered the nationalist movement in Europe. In Germany, Italy, Hungary, the nations had, indeed, secured independence or at least self- government ; but, except in the Balkans, there was little advance elsewhere. Indeed, there seemed so little hope of it that revolutionary nationalism almost died out in despair. One of the most striking things about the history of Europe during the fifty years before Sedan is the undaunted spirit of revolt against alien rule. To this day, Byron is accorded a far higher rank among the poets by foreigners than by his own countrymen, largely because of the thrill his attack on the Holy Alliance and his death at Missolonghi sent through Europe a century ago. And of the most famous names of the mid-century, how many are connected with this very movement for national freedom 1 EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 141 Mazzini, Garibaldi, Kossuth, these men were world-famous in their own day, and have taken their place among the great memories of history. Certainly no one has become equally famous for similar services in our day. The new military Empires were far too strong to give any rebellion hope of success. National aspirations were crushed beneath their weight, and the movement for liberty seemed almost to have died out. That the desire for national liberty was not dead is now clear. Far from dying, it has spread to the East. In Europe the iron cage is broken, and a whole aviary of nations has escaped into the light of freedom. They are indulging in strange gyrations at present, pecking and screaming at one another, rather than settling down to build nests or gather food for themselves ; yet I have no doubt that this result of the war at least is a great potential gain for humanity. Some day they must settle down and find their places in the strange new world in which they have to live. While, where the Imperial system has already been broken down by defeat, the nations are now free, there seems to be no likelihood at all that the movement will stop with them. The Allies at the outset of the war proclaimed that they were fighting for the freedom of nationalities, and thus aroused hopes, the far- reaching effect of which they probably never 142 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA realized. Phrases they meant to apply to nations under the dominion of their enemies were inevit- ably universalized by the peoples of all lands. They thus roused aspirations throughout the world which their own action in defeating the Central Powers and reducing themselves to virtual bankruptcy will ere long render it diffi- cult, if not impossible, to resist. I see no definite boundaries that can now be placed to the progress of national independence, without the Empire or inside of it. That is why I have called this book England and the New Era. I do not really believe that our fellow-subjects in Scotland and Wales will wish to separate from us and set up as independent States, but I wish to make no assumptions whatever, and face the possibility of England standing entirely alone. In one way, at least, it is highly desirable she should do so. Nationality is really an admirable, a delightful thing, which it is desirable to en- courage in every way possible. It would be a misfortune if the vigorous nationality of Scotland, with its genius for song, its flavour of the heather and the hills, even perhaps its taste for theological argument, were merged in that of England ; as an Englishman, I should naturally think it even worse if the opposite result came about and we all became Scotsmen. Neither is at all likely, though I fear there can be no question that English national feeling has decayed or EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 143 been merged in the Imperialist fever far more than that of Scotland. If, then, which I do not doubt, some form of federal union, of Great Britain at least, will continue, it should be a union leaving the most absolute freedom of self-development to all the three nations of Great Britain, on terms, not " planned " in Whitehall, but worked out by free agreement between the peoples and capable of modification from time to time. I should have said the same only a few years ago about Ireland, but the mad attempt to impose conscription upon that coun- try has rendered this very doubtful. That measure ruined the Nationalist Party in Ireland and handed over the people to Sinn Fein. Whether we now obtain the good will of Sinn Fein to any form of union seems open to doubt. For I am convinced of this, that the war has killed the principle of AUTHORITY in politics. Nations will, for the future, have to depend in dealing with others, not on authority but on INFLUENCE. Authority, however wisely or rightly employed, is impossible without power. Now it is only too likely that Europe will take a long time in settling down into peace. The Continent may sink into a horrible reproduction of South America. If it does, however, there will be no revival of European industry, no restoration of European credit. Europe will be formidable only to itself, and Asia and 144 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA Africa will be freed from European inter- ference. As I pointed out in my first chapter, one main prop of our Empire overseas was that we really were necessary to the lands we ruled, and this necessity had its roots in the condition of the rest of Europe. The physical force of the age was almost entirely in the hands of the Europeans ; they made nearly all the ships and the guns. Europe was the only aggressive continent ; were it not for the great nations of Europe, the rest of the world could have lived its own life without interference from any one. Greedy as she might be for her- self, England did stand between Asia and America, on the one hand, and Europe on the other ; we stood in the way alike of Philip II, of Louis XIV, of Napoleon, of the Tsar, and of the Kaiser, and substituted for theirs a rule which was reasonably tolerant and just. So long, however, as Europe remained overwhelm- ingly strong, there was no possibility of in- dependence for any nation that did not know how to make heavy artillery, just as there was no possibility of independence for Poland under the drei Kaiserbund. Again, the state of things prevailing before the war made Imperialism a practical necessity for us. Deeply as we have wronged Ireland, we are not without excuse for having insisted upon keeping her under the rule of our kings. It is EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 145 a most unfortunate thing, not that Ireland is Roman Catholic and Great Britain Protestant that matters little but that whichever side they took at the Reformation the two islands did not both take the same. Henry VIII might detest Lutheran ideas, but when he denied the supremacy of the Pope, even if the Church of England had never gone any further than that, he effectually committed England to the Protestant side during the whole period of the religious wars. Whatever a theologian may think, the schism would have been less vital politically, if he had denied the Trinity. As, however, the Irish people still remained Papists, Ireland was from that day to the time of the Revolution, in sympathy at least, opposed to England whenever England was in danger. Ireland was from her geographi- cal position a perpetual menace on our flank, and many of the worst things we did there to maintain our position were just what other Governments would have done in similar cir- cumstances. Religious bigotry and afterwards commercial jealousy certainly made matters worse, but it is only fair to remember that a free Ireland in the seventeenth century would have been a hostile Ireland and a very dangerous addition to our enemies. Again, our Empire in more distant lands was largely necessary to us if we were to keep the 10 146 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA trade routes of the world open to our commerce. Our rivals there were the Latin countries, the most narrowly Protectionist of all lands. Old Spain and modern France are alike in their exclusiveness, the persistency with which they endeavour to monopolize the trade of depen- dencies for themselves. But this bond of Empire, the necessity of control to the Mother Country, will also disappear with the decay of European Im- perialism. Ireland in herself could hardly be a menace to us ; it is only as a base for the armies and navies of a more powerful State that she could really do us harm. Nor is it at all likely that the European States will be able to pursue a colonizing mission for the future. It seems to me, indeed, very doubtful whether France and Italy will be able to maintain their hold on the empires they have already, or the mandates they are acquiring under the Peace Treaty. And this because from them, as from us, has gone, not merely the need for Empire, but the power to maintain it. Europe needs peace, but she needs also credit. Now it would be mid- summer madness to lend to any of the European nations without a definite guarantee that the money is not going to be lost in another great war. If interest is to be paid on any new loan three things are essential : the loan must take precedence of any debts already incurred on EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 147 the Continent ; the money lent must be employed in restoring productive industries out of which it may be possible to pay the interest on it ; and the States must put it finally out of their power to fight again by virtually complete disarmament.* A loan from America, or one guaranteed by the leading nations of the world, and except from America and on such a guaran- tee it is not at all likely such a loan could be raised, would involve a very heavy importation of foodstuffs, raw materials, and machinery into the devastated and impoverished areas of the Continent. The need of these countries is a steady flow of imports ; they cannot export goods to pay interest upon their loans, until they have first been supplied with food on which to live and the materials needed for production. This being the case, it would obviously be absurd to permit of the reimposition of the elaborate tariffs on foodstuffs which have now been broken down by the war. Indeed, it is an absurdity to impose a tariff on any imports when the nation is being driven by dire need to borrow money in order to obtain them. Disarmament on a drastic scale and a great * I would say total disarmament, but have left room for contributions from each State towards an international police force, if necessary. Whether this will be necessary or not depends to my mind largely upon whether Japan will also consent to disarm. 148 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA extension of Free Trade are essential conditions of any restoration of prosperity in Europe. To insist upon this condition would be no undue interference with the self-determination of nations, but a necessary precedent to success for those entrusted with raising the money needed to give the world a fresh start. Possibly, Europe may reject help on such terms, though I think the pressure of events will drive it to accept them. In the former case, European civilization will simply collapse. On the other hand, if the nations, recognizing the inevitable, dispense with their armies and their tariffs, Europe will recover fairly rapidly. In either case, however, the danger of aggression from Europe will be gone neither we nor the rest of the Empire will need great armaments any more. And, as far as we are concerned, there will be the most urgent necessity for a reduction. The Naval, Army, and Air Service estimates for this year amount to 230,000,000, a monstrous burden in view of the serious financial position in which we stand even with- out them. It is quite possible that this charge, amounting to much more than the previous income of the State, may render any restoration of prosperity hopeless, whatever else we do. Much of it, however, is for pensions and charges that could not be got rid of, even with total disarmament, for many years. Each man EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 149 enlisted has a contract with the State ; we are not at liberty to dismiss him until his term of service is over. What we are entitled to do is to stop recruiting. We are doing the very opposite. Not only does Mr. Churchill propose to waste three millions of money in reclothing the army in scarlet, but urgent recruiting posters are displayed on the walls, bearing witness to the activity of militarism. Here are some headings taken from the posters in Scotland Yard : You can become a Skilled Tradesman by joining the Army. Wanted, Smart Men for the Tank Corps. Let Professor Tank teach you a trade. Join the R.A.M.C. Experience Counts. A few years with the Ordnance teaches a man to do anything. Welsh Guards. Smart Men wanted. Smart Men wanted for the Grenadier Guards. Smart Men wanted for the Coldstream Guards. Are you fond of Horses ? Then join the Cavalry. Become a Skilled Artisan by joining the Royal Engineers. Urgently wanted ! Men are required immediately for the R.E. Signal Service. These, with a poster giving the rates of Army pay, complete the list. It will be seen that an attempt is being made to persuade possible recruits that Army training will be a help to them in getting better positions after. The first poster, for instance, gives a picture of two men engaged in shoeing a horse, and I suppose is intended to imply that the ex- Army 150 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA man can settle down easily into the village blacksmith. " Are you fond of horses ? " appeals to the sporting instinct, and gives a vigorous picture of tent-pegging. Obviously, the fighting side of soldiering is not just at present felt to be the most attractive form of appeal. It would appear that the Coalition Government is not convinced that the war was one to end war, and is not concerned about the paper shortage. The policy of the Coalition, or rather its acts, for it is questionable whether it has a policy, is depriving the nation of a valuable moral force by maintaining a useless and dangerous physical force. To us was open up to the time of the armistice, and perhaps still could be recovered, a position in the new era in which only influence will count at least equivalent to that we held in the passing world of authority. We could have led the nations on the road towards disarmament and industrial liberty. Damage, perhaps irreparable, has been done to our posi- tion by the acts of Mr. Lloyd George's Govern- ment. The continuance of the blockade after the armistice has gained for us a name, at least in Russia, as bad as that which Germany earned with us by the atrocities of the war. The acute but undisciplined intellect of Mr. Lloyd George is open to receive in quick succession the most contradictory impressions, vaguely humani- EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 151 tarian to-day, foolishly vindictive to-morrow. His mind is a battlefield in which things good and evil, vestiges from the past and confused glimerings of the future, meet in indecisive conflict. From outside a medley of voices, M. Clemenceau and President Wilson, profiteers and Trades Unionists, Krassin and Mr. Bottomley, militarists and pacifists, encourage now one now the other combatant and add to the confusion. To make the matter worse, every idea for the moment in the ascendant rushes to his lips and conveys to the world outside the conflict within. Mr. George's policy cannot, therefore, be reduced to any intelligible principle even by his own countrymen, and naturally it is still less comprehensible to the outside world. Every day he is in power the good name of England, both for stability of purpose and for justice, must necessarily sink lower in the esteem of the world, until only her traditional repute for hypocrisy remains. A sound policy for England in the new age must break definitely and finally with the past ; it must be conceived and carried out by states- men who have a clear conception of the vast chasm between the old world and the new and some vision of the place possible to England in the future state of things. No one who has had any responsibility for the past can be trusted in shaping the future ; it must be done by 152 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA entirely new men and women with an entirely new outlook on life. For, apart from the difficulty of inducing people who have absorbed into their being the ideas of a perishing age to accept those of the New Era, there is little hope of winning for them, however changed they may be, the confidence of foreign nations. The very fact of a complete change of personnel, the final sweeping into the background of all persons who had anything to do with the diplomacy that led to the war or with the actions of Government during and after it, would be of enormous value to British policy. Such a Government coming into power would be in itself an evidence sufficiently pointed of a break with the past to ensure belief in our good faith. But if an entirely new Govern- ment were returned to power, such a policy as I am about to suggest would, I think, be wel- comed far and wide. Nay, more. So great has been the faith in the sanity of the English nation in the past, so often has the returning love of liberty and fair play swept away from our country the passions of war, so soon have the Cannings succeeded the Castlereaghs, that I believe the very announcement of such a policy would recover for us in a moment the moral prestige of our nation, and drive away the memory of our misdeeds. 1. The Government should announce that EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 153 we will definitely give up all recruiting for the Army, Navy, and Air forces, and put a stop to all building of war vessels or manufacture of war materials, being content for the present with the men already in the forces. 2. That this policy will be continued until it becomes evident that the rest of the world refuses to follow our lead, or until a League of Nations, including Russia and the Central Powers, has decided on the contingent we ought to contribute towards the police of the world. 3. That when this is done we will maintain such armaments only as the League of Nations shall from time to time judge to be necessary. 4. That we will abandon as far as the Imperial Government is concerned all attempts at com- mercial preference within the Empire, under- taking to give no preference ourselves, to main- tain our Free Trade system, and to compel no Crown Colony to grant preferential import or export duties. 5. That we shall be willing to share in guaranteeing an international loan, the proceeds of which shall be devoted to restoring devastated areas and supplying food and raw materials to populations ruined by the war in any countries willing to accept the same policy as ours with regard to armaments and trade. Also that we are willing to cancel all debts to us incurred by our Allies during the war on the same condition. 154 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA 6. That we shall make no treaty with any other Power, except on the condition that it is immediately communicated to the League of Nations and registered with it. With regard to existing engagements, we shall request the Powers with whom they have been made to agree to similar registration, and if we fail to obtain their consent shall refuse to be bound by them any longer. I am convinced that such proposals made by a new Government elected with a strong and clear mandate would make a most profound impression throughout the world. I think they would determine the whole future policy of the world itself. The peoples of the world have had enough of the horrors of war, whatever poli- ticians of the old order may think, and when once such a programme has been proposed by a leading nation and published everywhere, it will arouse at least in America, Western Europe, and Russia a widespread enthusiasm. Only in Poland, the Balkans, and other lands intoxicated for the moment with their new freedom and anxious to start on a career of Imperialism and glory in their turn, would any rival enthusiasm have a chance to resist the attraction of the new prospect of peace opened up to the nations, and even in these lands there must be many millions weary of bloodshed and famine. We should send through the world EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 155 a thrill like that created by the publication of President Wilson's fourteen points. Had the President stood firmly by his famous points, nothing could have resisted him. He and not M. Clemenceau would have dictated the terms of peace, and the United States to-day would be universally recognized as the leading nation of the world. This is a tragedy of history, but it leaves the way open to us ; are we prepared to take advantage of the opportunity ? In the first place, the programme here outlined offers to the nations of Europe an immense practical relief. By agreeing to disarmament, they not only relieve their finances of one of their greatest burdens, but they are put into a position to borrow the money desperately wanted to enable them to restart their industries. Though our own financial position is so bad that we could not lend the money needed ourselves, our name would still be a very good one as a collateral security to guarantee an international loan. Indeed, if at the same time in which the offer was made, we not only steadily reduced our own armaments towards vanishing point, but by the policy outlined in the last chapter, we put our national finance on a sound footing, our guarantee would be a perfectly adequate one. American capital would freely accept it as such, and a large international loan could be effected with ease. I do not suppose for a 156 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA moment that our European Allies will ever pay the debts they owe us, but a frank with- drawal of all claims would relieve them from an embarrassing position and improve their credit. It would be an entirely wise and statesman- like thing for us to realize this. It is hardly too much to say that such action on our part would save European civilization. Almost certainly, also, it would remove all danger of the militarist spirit taking hold of America, a terrible possibility if it is allowed to survive in Europe. It is European navalism and militarism that render the Monroe Doctrine necessary, and impose on the United States the duty, in the last resort, of defending any part of the American continent against attacks from the Old World. What is wanted at the present moment is for some strong nation, and we are in by far the best position to do it, to cut itself off formally and publicly from the ways of the old world, and initiate what should be the governing principles of the new. If we do this, future ages will forget all the hypocrisies of the secret treaties, all the brutalities of the blockade, all the cynicism of the peace treaty, and pro- nounce that we did truly fight to obtain freedom for the world. It will be more than we deserve, perhaps, but then it is not the things, however bad, which have been that men remember, but those that remain. EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 157 It is clear that the new era is going to be marked off from the last by an extension of nationalism and a decay of Imperialism. Something like this, however, it is well to remember, has hap- pened in the world before. From the ruins of the Roman Empire arose a medley of feudal States. For many hundreds of years Europe produced almost nothing that has been of any interest to later ages, while the young nations occupied themselves mainly in a chaos of use- less and destructive wars. Out of this anarchy rose, first the great States and then the Empires. Even Imperialism, then, would seem to have something to say for itself, at least as against feudal anarchy. But the fact is, that Imperialism, defective as it is, was after all an imperfect expression of a true thing. There was a half truth embodied in the Hapsburg Empire, just as there is a half truth expressed in the national- ism of Austria, Hungary, Roumania, Bohemia, and Serbia. In like manner our own Impe- rialists are not hopelessly wrong ; Sinn Fein is not a final expression of natural law, though it has by far the best of the argument as against British Imperialism. The truth is that Imperialism is an im- perfect recognition of, an illogical attempt to recognize the interdependence of nations. The German Zollverein, and the federal bond of the United States owe their value mainly to the fact that they have permitted free com- munication and free trade between the members composing these great unions. There was an essential need for union among the petty nationalities composing the Austrian Empire, which perhaps more than anything else secured its survival for so many centuries. Now that the nations have broken apart, a most preposterous system of tariffs, embargoes, and restrictions, not only between the various independent States, but positively between the provinces of Austria proper, is being set up, and is largely responsible for the starvation of Vienna and other places. This is particularism run mad ; it is a state of things which might sooner or later raise a demand for the recall of the Hapsburgs as the lesser evil of the two. But there is no need for such a counsel of despair. Obviously the advantage of a Customs Union is that it increases the area within which trade is free. If this is so, the more widely you extend the area the better. There is no logical limit ; the full gain, imper- fectly obtained by Imperialism, can be fully and finally secured only by an internationalism that knows no boundaries. Imperialism was in this and other things a rickety makeshift erected to escape the intolerable results of narrow nationalism. As it has broken down now, it is time to erect a permanent structure large enough to fulfil its function adequately. Towards this EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 159 object the steady influence of British diplomacy should be directed. We should endeavour to get the League of Nations to take up the subject, and whatever disputes arise within the Empire we should refer to the League as the final and only legitimate authority in such matters. Our foreign policy, while fully recog- nizing the truth in nationality, to the extent of leaving it to the self-determination of every nation to decide for itself whether it will remain in the Empire or not, should nevertheless be directed to secure the full recognition of that other truth, the interdependence of all nations, hitherto clumsily realized in part by Impe- rialism. We should stand no longer for the dreams of Mr. Kipling, but for the vision of Kant. If our international policy be conducted on these lines, if we boldly cut ourselves adrift from the old and accept the new as a condition of things not deplorable at all, but full of inspiration to us and to the world, we have enough prestige for political capacity left and what Mr. Lloyd George has lost for us we shall soon recover to secure for us a place higher than ever in the councils of the nations. We shall make a great start, and will turn the eyes of the world towards ourselves for other guid- ance. And wise guidance the new world will require, as perhaps never before. While we 160 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA welcome the new nationalism, we should not ignore its crudity. Of course, the German idea of imposing national " kultur " on other nations by force was itself a stupid barbarism, the result of political inexperience. There is no such thing as the highest culture in the world. Where are we, compared to the Germans in music or to the Italians in art ? Where is Germany, compared to France in matters of taste or in clarity of thought and expression ? Every civilization is incomplete, and it is only through the cross fertilization of many cultures that the progress of humanity can be secured, by free intercourse and toleration among the nations. We have had hitherto an intercourse of ideas among European lands, which, imperfect as it was, kept Europe progressive ; we are about to include the East in the comity of nations to the immense profit of East and West alike. But while there is no nation that can fairly claim to be ahead of all the others, there is, nevertheless, such a thing as seniority in cultures, and, in language at least, seniority is a very important matter. Languages are not to be judged only, or even mainly, by their potential powers of expression, but by the positive value of the things already expressed in them. The late Dean Church lamented that Bacon had not written the Novum Organum in English, and any one who knows Bacon's EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 161 wonderful command of our language must lament the loss involved in having to read it in some other man's translation of Bacon's Latin. Nevertheless, Bacon was right ; English was not then a recognized language, or one in which it was any use for a great thinker to appeal to the philosophic world. Hardly any foreigner deliberately learnt English, and to have written the book in his own tongue would have been to insure neglect. Descartes could write in French shortly after ; but French had even then a great international prestige, and the Discourse on Method was soon known throughout Europe. A century later English also acquired this standing, and it would have been pedantry for an Englishman to write in Latin. There are thousands of languages in the world, and I think, on the whole, it is desirable that all or many of them should survive in local usage, but it is obviously impossible that any con- siderable number can secure an international standing. From among them a few must always stand out by virtue either of the extent, variety, and perfection of form of their litera- tures, or of their wider diffusion over the world. Whatever his mother tongue may be, it is ab- solutely essential for an educated man to know one or other of these leading languages, a language which not only contains a great literature of its own, but one into which has 11 162 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA been translated all that matters most in the higher thought of other lands. Only in this way is it possible to gain access to the civili- zation of the world ; only perhaps through such a language can any one speak to the world at all. It was certainly absurd enough of the Germans to try to compel the Poles to speak German. The attempt failed, as it deserved to fail, and is only too likely to lead to neglect of the German language and literature in free Poland. Yet will any impartial person contend that German is not a more useful language to know than Polish, both from a cultural and a practical standpoint ? Similarly, while it is a good and interesting thing that Welsh, Gaelic, and Erse survive in the British Islands, is it possible to conceive of any one who only knew one or other of these becoming an educated man in any full sense of the word ? The Celtic revival has been an inspiration, not least seen perhaps in its influence on English poetry, and no doubt it has produced equally fine work in the Celtic languages themselves. But poetry alone cannot give an adequate culture ; men require access to books of science, philo- sophy, politics, and criticism. In order that these may be translated into or produced in adequate numbers in any language, it must be the common speech of many millions of people. EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 163 Alongside of a general movement to revive or preserve many less-known languages, it is not surprising to find attempts being made to provide a universal one. After all, the Tower of Babel is an uncomfortable place to live in, as its builders found out. And no doubt, if the extant literature of the world could be translated in all its beauty into an expressive tongue, however artificial, Volapuk or Esperanto might become the language of the world. But this is impossible. You cannot translate great poetry ; it remains for ever a thing that can only be felt in the exact form in which the poet himself has written it. It would take centuries before a great literature could be created, even if such a thing would ever be possible in a fixed and artificial language. That being so, those languages that possess a long literary tradition have a great advantage over others, whether natural or artificial. An adequate literature should express the thoughts and history of a great nation, as they have been modified and developed during centuries, a great and unbroken literary tradition. You can no more produce such a thing to order than you can grow an oak forest in a day. Thus, in the coming rivalry of nations, such countries as France and Britain start with a great advantage. Probably no modern litera- tures are quite so adequate from all points of 164 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA view as these. Spanish thought was checked too soon, there can hardly be enough of modernity about Spanish literature ; Germany and Russia entered the field too late ; the literary tradition of Italy, glorious in the Middle Ages and vigorous to-day, had its middle period of weakness and decline. If the civilizations, therefore, of France and Britain continue creative and vigorous, preserving and extending the traditions inherited from the past, they are bound to retain a leading place among the nations and to be far more influential than most others in moulding the thought of the world. On the Continent, and perhaps in Latin America, French will probably retain its prestige as the most international of languages, but elsewhere English has a great advantage. It is already the mother tongue of nations cover- ing a larger area than that on which any other is spoken, and ere long it may be the native speech of a larger number of people. And even in many lands throughout the Empire and beyond it where English will never be the native speech, there are a larger number of people who speak it as a secondary language than any other. English has got a tremendous start of its rivals in non-European countries. Not only to the English-speaking peoples, but to Indians and Africans English is the key to Western culture. EMPIRE IN THE NEW ERA 165 This means that whatever may become of the Empire of Authority, we have, more than other nations, the opportunity to establish an Empire of Influence. The little States of Europe little that is to say as compared with America, Russia, China, and India can never again, I am convinced, rule the world. Their military power is for the time broken by the war, and if, unhappily, militarism ever revives in the world, its force will certainly be concentrated in larger lands. As the European nations superseded the city States, like Venice and Florence, so in their turn must they give way in any competi- tion based on force to nationalities on a larger scale than themselves. Even we, crippled like the rest by debt, will find it impossible to resist the urge towards nationality and the virtual if not avowed independence of all the Dominions. The new world will be one in which " outside authority will enter only after the precedence of inside authority." But on those terms an immense influence is open to us in the world of to-morrow. Let us accept the new condition of things. That way our true Empire lies. Leadership among the nations can yet be seized by the people that first propounds and boldly pursues a policy of healing for the ills of the world. The influence thus acquired can be re- tained by a nation that clearly realizes the character of this New Era, that develops in 166 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA itself the most worthy civilization and leaves it free to exert its own power as a model for the rest. The more righteous we are and the less we talk to others about it, the better on the whole for us. But leadership in the future, in a world where only size and population count, will not be possible for us ; if we are to retain our place, it will be necessary to depend on other things than these. Our aim, therefore, if we want England to continue great among the nations, in a world in which mere size will count for little, must be to seek for Influence and not Authority. And in such a world, if we make ourselves worthy of the position, our chance is great. Only we must be worthy ; it is more important that the world should be influenced by the worthiest than that it should be influenced by England. We should not even wish it to be otherwise. Let us then earn our place. There will be no Rome in the future world ; let us endeavour to be its Athens. CHAPTER VII THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA THE political programme advocated in the two last chapters implies a revolution in our policy, domestic and foreign. It is, I think, absolutely essential that we should carry out such a revolu- tion, if the war is not to prove for us, victorious though we have been, a disastrous turning-point in the fortunes of our country. But though I am hopeful as to the result, I am not unaware of the tremendous difficulties in the way. Nay more, I am convinced that we shall find as we go along difficulties which at the moment no one has foreseen. These are often the most formidable of all. My plan implies a form of Socialism. Substantially the nation is to-day individualist : if the programme outlined in the fifth chapter be adopted, it will become in substance Socialist. Now I have never doubted that there were real difficulties in the way of Socialism, only I don't know what they are. In a great enterprise it is not the difficulties that are foreseen that count for most ; the real trouble comes from the unforeseen. A difficulty that 167 168 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA is expected frequently turns out to be no diffi- culty at all when we get to grips with it. Solvitur ambulando ; a working arrangement turns out to be quite feasible, and the once formidable threat to progress is passed by almost unnoticed when we come to it. If there is anything that advancing Socialism cannot do, that Socialism will not do. Social forms are never logical ; " survivals " of bygone forms continue for ages after the type of society has been changed beyond recognition, no matter how incongruous they may seem. If the fortress cannot be stormed, it is " contained," and the advancing army rushes forward to occupy more accessible terri- tory. The fiercest battle when it comes will very likely be waged round some citadel of the very existence of which the combatants are unaware at the outset of the struggle. We may have to compromise where we do not expect it ; we may find all things smooth where we looked for the greatest difficulty. Certainly the diffi- culties in working out the change will be many ; but, for the moment, I think the greatest is in rousing the confidence and the spirit of the nation to set about the task. " By far the greatest obstacle," says Bacon, " to the advancement of the sciences, and the undertaking of any new attempt or department, is to be found in men's despair and the idea of FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 169 impossibility." He then points out again the novelty of the method he proposes to employ, and derives from the failure of the past a hope for the future. " We will give," he says, " a most potent reason for hope deduced from the errors of the past, and the ways still unattempted ; for well was an ill-governed State thus reproved, ' That which is worst with regard to the past should appear most consolatory for the future ; for if you had done all that your duty commanded, and your affairs proceeded no better, you could not even hope for their improvement ; but since their unhappy situation is not owing to the force of circumstances, but to your own errors, you have hope that by banishing or correcting the latter you can produce a great change for the better in the former.' ' If we can arouse in the English people Bacon's magnificent confidence and resolution, we shall have won more than half the battle. The position of the Socialist in England to-day is very like that in which Bacon found himself. Scholasticism was in truth breaking down ; men were indeed examining nature ; they were in actual fact making discoveries. The work of individuals was, however, little co-ordinated, and there was no adequate faith in the world in the great possibilities of science. It was he that had the clearest vision of what might be done ; of the great good to mankind that 170 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA would come from the faithful and first-hand study of the works of nature. Whatever may be faulty in the details of his method, we now know that Bacon was right ; his was a true vision. As he inspired men with enthusiasm for that systematic study of natural science which has had such vast results, so it is our business to arouse a similar enthusiasm for a new political science. And as he did this by attacking the methods of the schoolmen, and substituting the direct interrogation of nature for barren dialectics, so we have to convince people of the true basis of scientific politics ; that Society must rest on co-operation, national and international, and not on antagonism and competition. Incidentally, we are in a position to apply his illustration of the ill-governed State, to point to the world to-day and to say to the advocates of the old methods : " Si monumentum requiris drcumspice ! " For the real reason that we have the tremendous task thrust upon us of recasting the whole system of politics and giving to the nation a new social order is that the old one has committed hara- kiri ; the thing could have been brought about in a more orderly and a less hurried manner if there had been no war. But, as I have endea- voured to show in previous chapters, the old system has become unworkable. You cannot restore credit without security from war and with- FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 171 out such an expropriation of capital as amounts to a revolution. The most pessimistic view as to the possibility of making Socialism efficient leaves it at least a less hopeless experiment than that of reviving Imperialist Capitalism. And it is not so much of an experiment as it would have been even a few years, much less a century ago. Within the body of the old system the germs of the new have been steadily growing for sixty years at least, and with greatly increased speed during the last decade. This is an essential condition for the founding of a new order. The principle of a society may be simple ; the organization which carries that principle into effect must always be complex. In order that the innumerable functions necessary to the life of a great nation may work freely, society must be provided with numberless organs, voluntary or official, each entrusted with its special department of social life. In a demo- cratic society these organs work directly for the benefit of the people, and are under the control of the people. It is almost, if not quite essential that they should originate with the people them- selves by a process of evolution ; if given to or imposed on the people from without, they will almost certainly require to be controlled by the external agency that has created them, and ultimately, if not by the founders, at least by their successors, in the interests of those who 172 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA control them. This is notoriously the case with our public schools and colleges. Sometimes, though not often, perhaps, the people may learn to appreciate and control things given to them, but they are far more likely to do so when they have created the new departure themselves to serve some want which they feel strongly, and have kept the whole management in their hands from the beginning. In this way is evolved a democratic public service ; men learn public business by doing it ; public spirit is a product of public activities. Now no matter what enthusiasm we could have aroused for a new social order fifty or even far fewer years ago, such a thing would, I think, have been impossible, in England at least. If, by any great and destructive war Capitalism had come to a standstill then, there was no adequate organization to take its place. Fortunately for our country's future, that did not happen, and the last two generations have seen the material growth and increasing confidence of two great democratic institutions, Industrial Co-operation and Trades Unionism. Their progress has followed, of course, the laws that govern the growth of every human institution. Beginning with small things, compelled to fix their immediate attention on modest and strictly utilitarian ends, they have become stronger and stronger, more and more enterprising and aggres- FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 173 sive, decade by decade, until to-day they con- stitute one of the leading forces in the State, and are becoming more and more conscious of their mission to destroy the present state of things and substitute a new. Meanwhile, not only has their membership increased, but their spheres of action have been steadily enlarged. No sooner does the theorist on Trades Unionism or Co-operation come to a conclusion satisfactory to himself as to their functions in the world of to-day, than straight- way one or other of them undertakes something quite new and forces him to revise his estimate. I remember an old friend of mine explaining that Co-operation was well fitted for distribution, but it had entirely failed in production. I think at the time he was quite justified in the face of the facts as they were. Within a few years, however, the great flour mill at Dunston and the factories at Pelaw arose within a few miles on either side of the place where this was said, and soon proved that, though co-operative production might be a failure under Robert Owen, and among a proletariat unaccustomed to business organization, it is a totally different thing to a great established movement with plenty of capital and officered by men having years of business experience. The moral was, not that successful co-operative production is impossible, but that the true order of things 174 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA is to start with distribution in the first place. Similarly with Trades Unionism. However modest its beginnings, Trades Unionism neces- sarily implies a certain limitation on the owner- ship of his factory by the employer. The union imposes conditions on the working of the factory, the extent of which depends on the power of the union itself and the amount of trouble it could cause the employer in the event of a dispute. The growth of Trades Unionism, then, implies the gradual building up of a dual control in industry, a thing which, though implicit in the very idea of Unionism, is hardly realized either by employers or men until in practice it has extended very far indeed. Hence, the " re- cognition " of a union by the employer is a very important thing ; it means the capitula- tion of individualism, or the right of the employer to do exactly as he likes in his own factory. Employers are quite right in saying there has been a growing interference on the part of the organized workers in the conduct of factories and workshops. Where they are wrong is in thinking this a bad thing. It means the growing control of organized workmen over the conditions of their working lives, and involves the training, through experience, of numbers of the working classes secretaries, shop stewards, FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 175 check weighmen, etc. in the administration of affairs. But it is only slowly that Labour comes to aim consciously at complete control of industry, at doing without the capitalist employer altogether, nor do I think that the ultimate recognition of this aim is altogether or even mainly due to Socialist teaching. People are generally more or less content with what can't be helped, however unpleasant it may be. As soon, however, as they think improvement possible, the things that before were submitted to, perhaps almost without complaint, rapidly become intolerable. I am speaking here of the mass of men, not of exceptional spirits. Among the masses, there is a general tendency to acquiesce in things that seem firmly established ; it needs a good deal of imagination to see very far ahead. But the masses soon realize the value of a new power. When it is possible to effect rapid change for the better, to do something that will have an immediate effect for good, they can be, as they have shown many times in the world's history, as revolutionary as the seers. The realization of their own power revealed to them, not by the preaching of an agitator, but by an actual victory, at once changes their attitude. Their aims enlarge ; their demands stiffen ; a new spirit take possession of them, and they become capable of heroic things. They, 176 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA too, dream dreams, dreams now shortly to become true. Things which once seemed impossible are demanded and obtained. Possunt quia posse videntur. Now that Trade Unionism really is strong, now that it has created a great and intricate organism, capable of doing things that would have been impossible in former years, the rank and file of Unionism is feeling the momentum of its new strength, and is listening with attentive ears even to the Guild Socialist and the Syndicalist. Though it is hard for the idealist to see it, the sluggishness of the masses in the days of their weakness is really an evidence of the under- lying sanity of the race. If the last century had been a mere history, as it might have been, of futile strikes and industrial discord, nothing but misery could have come of it all. After all, a right implies a power, and even the people have no right to control industry until they have developed the ability to do it. There was a kernel of truth in the doctrine of divine right. As long as the only effective and orderly govern- ment was government by a king, as long as the political instincts and public spirit of the people were undeveloped, despotism was unavoidable ; and that being so, we can hardly blame the despot for performing the function no one else could fulfil. The progress of democracy not only depends, but looked at philosophically ought FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 177 to depend, upon the progress of knowledge and organization among the people themselves. With the working classes much more widely, and through the possibilities of the shop stewards' movement more intricately organized than in the past, a new state of things has arisen. Experi- ence of various sorts has been gained, possibilities of still further rapid extension have been revealed, and a foundation laid to which we may hopefully entrust the industry of the nation. Capitalism has proved itself incapable of preserving the peace of the world, on which, in the last resort, the efficiency even of its own system depended. We turn to the workers, not merely because we will, but because we must. But it is not by any means only among the Trades Unionists that the foundations for a great democratic experiment have been laid. No movement made more rapid progress during the last twenty years than that for the emancipa- tion of women. I am not here looking at the matter from the point of view of right but of power. From the former there is much to regret in the resistance so long made to the movement by politicians brought up in the Victorian tradition ; but I think the very resistance it encountered was of great value to the women's movement. It compelled the women to organize ; it made them depend on themselves ; it developed in innumerable ways their political consciousness. 12 178 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA A Belgian friend of mine, a refugee from the German invasion, was astonished at the political capacity of British women ; he told me he had never experienced anything like it. This capacity was largely the result of actual experience in political agitation, in the give and take of platform propaganda, and in the organization of great political societies. We have now hundreds of women who have far wider knowledge of politics and of social conditions generally than almost any woman had twenty years ago. They are standing now as candidates at local and Par- liamentary elections, working in positions of authority, and not merely on suffrance ; in the work of parties, they are elaborating their own programmes, bringing to the political stock of the nation a fresh outlook on old problems and the addition of many new ones. I see, therefore, every reason to hope that we can safely trust the people with the great task of reconstruction that lies before them. The organizations on which the work will fall are not so strong as they would have been with another generation of peace. The people were not consulted, however, as to the time at which their rulers intended to run the ship of State aground, and whatever comes of it we must do our best to get her off again with the appliances at hand. And it is an enormous advantage to have made a good start with organization, FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 179 it is far easier to extend and develop a thing already in existence than to bring it into being. After all, the Women's, Trade Unionist, Co- operative, and Socialist movements had all very small beginnings and had a long struggle before they exerted any appreciable influence. During the last ten years they have come on with a rush, and there is no reason to doubt their capacity to expand rapidly enough, given the opportunity and the need, to bear the weight of a new social and political order. And if we can arouse a great enthusiasm, a renascence of the spirit of the nation, such as occasionally in the history of the world has lifted humanity far above the level of common achievement, we shall do much more than save the State. We ought to aim at more than merely " carrying on," more than on making a new system work. It seems natural that in times of great change and whatever happens the time before us must be one of rapid change the human spirit, seeing new opportunities opening before it, should rise to new heights of creative power. Young England should " hitch its wagon to a star." There will be, I think, after the terrible pressure of the time is over, a great renascence of this kind in the newly emancipated lands. After all, the gain of political freedom in Russia and Germany, of national freedom in Poland and among the peoples of Austria should bring 180 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA such an inspiration to them. In this renascence we should not be left behind ; we shall have as much new work to do as any of them. Our art has become divorced from life, mainly I think because it has been given no really important work to do. It has been looked upon as an agreeable trifle ; the amusement of an aesthetic sect. Grumblingly perhaps, and with a sense of helplessness and defeat, our artists have gener- ally accepted the position, and in spite of technical advance, creative power has declined in conse- quence. But if the profits of industry become the assets of the State and its internal control be handed to those who actually do the work, a new situation will be created. The actual makers should be far more ready to make inter- esting things, things with an idea and design in them, than those who are only ordering them to be made for some distant market. When the nation owns the land on which houses have to be built, and the women who have to spend most of their time in them have a direct say in how they are built, there will be a revolt against the stereotyped house of the day, certainly from a utilitarian and I hope from an aesthetic point of view. There will be a place for the designer, not merely of the rich man's mansion, but of the average woman's cottage, a social function recognized and appreciated for the artist. I may be too sanguine, but on the whole FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 181 I am not afraid of what the people will do with their chance when they get it ; I am anxious to see them begin. And getting the chance is really the crux of the matter. The political question comes first : How are we to carry out any political programme near enough to the one outlined in previous chapters to give the people their chance ? It must not be imagined that this is just a question of putting one Government out and another in. It is not even a question of putting a Liberal or Labour Government or a Liberal-Labour Coalition in office with a large majority over the present Coalitionists. We need not only a large majority both in the House and in the country, but those majorities must be composed of men and women who have a clear idea of what they are doing. I detest the Coalition and all its works as much as any one, and am very glad the by-elections are going so steadily against them. The sooner their power is broken the better, provided it is broken completely and for ever, but it would be useless to substitute for them a Liberal-Labour Coalition or any other Government that had not broken irrevocably with the past. Nor would even such a Govern- ment be any use to us, if elected on a sort of snap vote as the result of general disgust with the methods of the Coalition. Not merely a large but an overwhelming majority of the electors 182 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA must understand that the advent of a new Government means a revolution, however peace- fully carried out. The main outlines of the proposed policy, foreign and domestic, must be thoroughly discussed beforehand, and all that is implied by them clearly explained. The only kind of Government, in short, that can usefully replace the Coalition must be unassailably strong in the unity of its own purpose, in the support of the House of Commons, and of the immense majority of the voters. This is so, because at the very outset of its career the new Government will have to cut itself finally and completely adrift from the old policy both at home and abroad. Unlike this present, or any, Coalition, it will need to have a programme binding on and fully believed in by all the members of the Cabinet. As soon as a Bill is introduced to take over the land and build- ings of the country on the terms proposed in this book, a howl of indignation will go up from all the vested interests affected. A Coali- tion of Liberals and Labour men could not survive such an outburst for a moment ; the Cabinet would be split, the Parliamentary majority would be split, thousands of the very electors who had helped to return the Government would clamour for its destruction. We should have the old Coalition back in power again almost immediately and the progressive movement would FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 183 have received a set back that might never be recovered. No, it is no use trying to obtain office on the demerits of the Coalition ; we must get in on merits of our own. Now the by-elections afford pretty good evi- dence that the Government is unpopular. Only in a three-cornered fight has its candidate any reasonable chance of success. This is all to the good ; for it would be lamentable if the electors admired this Government after the experience of the last two years. Probably, if the Labour and Liberal Parties could come to an agreement to divide up the constituencies between them, to select a candidate from one party or the other for every one of them and vote solidly together, they could win an election to-day. A Labour- Free-Liberal Coalition could, I have little doubt, displace that of Mr. Lloyd George. We have therefore many homilies from impatient pro- gressives about the folly of the split vote, about the wisdom of coming to an " arrangement " between the two " progressive forces," and so on. Fortunately, such an arrangement is im- possible, however many good people in either party may desire it. In the first place, this would imply an agreement at headquarters as to the general lines on which the country should be mapped out. Now, except to organizations simply hungering for office and nothing else, this is almost impossible, and even with mere office- 184 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA seekers it is very difficult. The relative strength of the Free Liberal and Labour votes in the country is unknown, and certainly neither party would admit to the other that it was markedly inferior in strength. Neither side would be willing to accord the leadership of the House in case of defeat, or the premiership in that of victory to its rival. Let the Free Liberal put the question fairly to himself: Would Mr. Asquith take office under the premiership of Mr. Ramsay MacDonald, or even of Mr. Hen- derson ? Is he willing to support the sort of Budget Mr. Philip Snowden would be likely to bring in ? Or again, I ask the progressive Trades Unionist whether he thinks the Labour Party, holding, as in the case supposed it would do, hundreds of seats in the House, would allow the Liberals to hold the chief offices in the Cabinet and determine the policy of the country ? Nor, if headquarters could come to a friendly agreement, is there the least chance of it being observed. The local people have their own say in the matter, and they will certainly not agree to be suppressed in this way. Wherever the local leaders thought they had the slightest chance of winning, unauthorized candidatures would spring up everywhere. The state of affairs would be worse and not better. Instead of clean three-cornered fights, we should have FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 185 bad blood between the parties, and accusations of bad faith flung right and left. It is best to face the question frankly and to realize that it is not one merely of destroying a bad policy, but of substituting a good one for it. Before we have any right to take office, we must know who are to have the offices and exactly what we want them to do. Now there is no agreement on either point between the two parties. Not even the Alternative Vote or Proportional Representation would help us. As long as we have not a definite and very large majority in the House, supported by an equally strong majority in the country, firmly determined to carry through a revolutionary programme in home and foreign affairs, we had much better let Mr. Lloyd George make a mess of things than take his place and make as bad a one ourselves. For the radical fault of the Coalition Govern- ment is just this : it does not consist of men who have made a sincere unflinching study of the appalling problem before the nation and the world. It has a Coalition mind, which 1 think is a polite phrase for no mind at all. Amiable but futile Liberals, amiable but loose- thinking Labour men support it as loyally as furious Jingoes and reactionary Tories. On the whole, I think the best men in its huge majority are the more independent-minded 186 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA Conservatives, who have the courage of their convictions, and have several times interposed with valuable criticisms. A Government such as could arise out of an agreement between Free Liberals and Labour would necessarily have the same infirmity of purpose, however well intentioned it might be. At best it would be like putting an amiable child in charge of complicated machinery now in the hands of a mischievous one ; what is wanted is some one who understands the machine. We must not allow our desire for the defeat of the Coalition to bring us back to the old game of " ins " and " outs." I remember a talk I had long ago with the late Mr. Bruce Glasier which made a strong impression upon me. It was just after Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman had been chosen leader of the Liberal Opposi- tion in the House of Commons. I criticized the Liberals' choice upon the ground that Sir Henry had been a colourless politician, who could give no definite lead to the party, and would not be likely to announce any programme either in home or foreign politics that would arouse the nation. Mr. Glasier pointed out that that was exactly his best qualification. By standing as a " Liberal without adjectives," Sir Henry left himself free to take up any question that should arise and deal with it on Liberal principles, while on the other hand he FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 187 was not compelled to take up subjects in any particular order. He would have a free hand to do as he liked within the broad sphere covered by Liberal principles. Similarly, he said, a Socialist leader should stand for Socialist prin- ciples, not specially emphasizing any particular application of them, but leaving himself and his party free to deal with any matter of urgency on general Socialist lines. I saw that Mr. Glasier was right, and ever since have had a profound respect for the clear political insight which underlay the fine idealism of his character. I am still convinced that this is a sound posi- tion in ordinary times. But these are not ordi- nary times. The problems of the debt and of the restoration of peace conditions in the world are thrust in front of us, and cannot be deferred for any other. Interest on the debt becomes due at stated intervals and must be met either out of taxation or by new borrowing. Deficits cannot be avoided as long as the debt remains at anything like its present figure, and can only be provided for by imposts which bring up the whole problem anew every Budget. We must decide what our policy is to be towards countries in revolution, towards the reconstruction of Central Europe, towards the revision of the Peace Treaty, towards Ireland, India, and Egypt, and the infant League of Nations. In times of rapid change, events and not men rule politics, at least to the 188 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA extent of deciding what subjects must be dealt with and what can be left alone. It is not doubtful, it is as certain as anything can be, that the success or failure of the next Liberal or Labour Government will depend upon whether, from the moment it takes office, it is prepared to cut British politics free from militarism abroad and capitalism at home, and to make the schism so deep that it will be out of the power of any subsequent Government to close it again. No difficulty that we are likely to meet in the reconstruction of society after the war is likely to be greater than this first one. The moment the Government's plans are disclosed the tempest of opposition will burst forth. All the skill in vituperation acquired by pressmen by practising on the Germans and the Bolsheviks will be let loose ; agencies will stump the country trying every art to rouse the people against the Ministry. The agita- tion against the Budget of 1909 is but a faint foreshadowing of what we are sure to have, with Mr. Lloyd George this time on the side of the enemy. For this reason, if for no other, it is necessary to arouse the storm before or during and not after the elections. The country must be pre- pared beforehand for what it has to expect, and the election itself must constitute a complete defeat, not only of the Coalition Government, FOUNDATIONS OF THE NEW ERA 189 but of all the interests it represents. Only this way can we be certain that the country will continue to support us when our measures are brought in, that it is no use the Opposition trying to force a new election, and no use the House of Lords attempting to delay the inevitable. We need a resolute Government perfectly un- derstanding what it has to do, supported by a Northcliffe-proof majority chosen by a North- cliffe-proof nation. Until we get that, I care very little whether Mr. Lloyd George or Mr. Asquith, or for the matter of that, Mr. Arthur Henderson, is Prime Minister of this country. Mr. Henderson and the Labour Party have a far better grasp of the position than either the Coalitionists or the Liberals. That may be a reason for putting them in power ; it is no adequate reason for giving them office without it. Until we have fought the storm down and got the country absolutely converted, not only to our opinion of the Coali- tion but to our programme, office would not imply power. It would only play into the hands of the reaction and leave the way open for the return of Mr. Lloyd George. CHAPTER VIII PARTIES AND POLITICS WHAT possibility is there of such a Govern- ment as that spoken of in the last chapter ? The by-elections, helpful as they are up to a certain point, afford no indication of such a thing. No doubt, from a purely party point of view, Paisley was a triumph for the Liberals and Spen Valley for Labour, but neither showed that a clear, let alone an overwhelming majority of the electors in these exceptionally advanced constituencies were resolved on any such drastic change in policy as is advocated in this book. As indications of the rising tide of discontent with the Coalition, they possess a certain negative value, and I do not deny the importance of discrediting the Coalition with the people. A stronger Opposition in the House of Commons might do much to hasten the disillusion of the nation and to restrain the worst excesses of the reaction in the meantime ; but for the Liberals or any Coalition of Liberals and Labour men to take office until the Liberal Party has definitely committed itself in an unmistakable manner 190 PARTIES AND POLITICS 191 to a policy at least as drastic as that of the advanced wing of Labour, would be a calamity almost worse than a continuance of Coalition Government. The misdeeds of the Coalition discredit only the reaction ; bad as they are they do not destroy faith in progress. But until a Government that has faced the whole problem and realized the necessity for far- reaching change takes office blunders similar, if not exactly the same, are inevitable. Of these the Opposition and the Opposition Press would take full advantage, and the Government which had to learn its wisdom in office, and not before taking it, would not long remain in power. Nor would even an advanced Labour victory at the polls be any better, unless the electors who put it there thoroughly understood what they were about, and unless its support at the polls were greater than that of both other parties com- bined ; unless, in fact, Labour had a substantial majority of the whole possible electorate. The split vote, far from being a nuisance, is at present a very illuminating and useful thing. It serves to safeguard us against dangerous optimism by revealing how great a part must be deducted from every progressive poll for those who are merely disgusted with Mr. Lloyd George, and how few have realized the imperative necessity for fundamental change. 192 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA What forces are there by which we may hope to convert the nation to such a policy, to a state of mind that will make the great change possible ? Those at our disposal are partly those of the official parties and partly the grow- ing influence of various non-party organizations, most of which have grown up since the out- break of the war. For a generation before the war the Socialist organizations, notably the I.L.P., had virtually created a new political organ in the country. The open-air political meeting, especially the Sunday meeting, was, before the advent of the I.L.P., an occasional rather than an organized and official thing. Political education was left, except at election times, to the party Press, except where secularist Radicals or advocates of particular reforms carried on a supplementary propaganda useful as an addition to party efforts. The branches of the I.L.P. especially, however, now constitute a permanent propagandist force, active in almost every constituency. For the moment, I am only concerned with this in so far as it has provided a ready platform for the propaganda of new ideas brought to the front by such organ- izations as the Union of Democratic Control, the Civil Liberties Group, and the Women's International League, as well as for acquainting the people with the proposals made in such books as Mr. Pethick Lawrence's Levy on Capital PARTIES AND POLITICS 193 or Mr. Keynes' Economic Consequences of the Peace. Much progress, indeed, has been made on the theoretic side of reconstruction. From the very outbreak of the war, alongside the popular swing towards reaction, there was a strong movement among earnest politicans and intellectuals to- wards the Left. Never, perhaps, has there been more revision of old ideas ; never more attention been given by serious thinkers to the problems of democracy. Whether this book gives any real assistance in solving its problems or not, it is certain that much has been done by writers in all countries towards providing a solution. And the ideas thus worked out on foreign and home policy have had far more influence than many realize. The advocate of a new democratic idea is not nowadays only a voice crying in the wilderness ; he is not entirely dependent for its spread on the daily Press. The organized Socialist movement will sow his idea all over the country for him, leaving the seed to germi- nate in due time. We should not undervalue the work thus done its effect will be felt ere long. Except in so far as it has affected the outlook and programmes of the official parties, however, it has done little to render a really efficient alternative Government to the Coalition possible. Neither the Liberal nor the Labour Party is 13 194 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA as yet in a position to form such a Government, while the other absolutely essential condition, an electorate convinced of the necessity for drastic reconstruction and prepared to support Parliament in carrying it out, does not as yet exist. Broadly speaking, Liberalism lacks ideas and Labour leadership, both of which will be needed for the great conflict before us. What is the present position of Free Liberal- ism towards the new problems of home and foreign politics ? How far does it recognize that there has been a revolutionary change in both since 1914, and that equally far-reaching changes in methods and programmes are required, if this country is still to retain a leading position among the nations of the world ? To take the home question first. By far the most widely advertised proposal for dealing adequately with the problem of the debt is that of a capital levy. As far as I know, there has been as yet no equally well-considered and equally effective plan put before the public. The debt is far too serious a matter to be left alone. Until it has adopted a broad and adequate plan for dealing with the debt, no political party is justified in seeking office and power, any more than a man has a right to apply for a responsible post without understanding the work required in it. Now there js only one form of answer possible at present to the proposal of Mr. Pethick Lawrence, PARTIES AND POLITICS 195 and that is the production of an alternative proposal equally far-reaching and effective. The capital levy, at present at any rate, " holds the field," and as I think the Liberal Party will be even less likely to accept the alternative scheme I have suggested, it is desirable to know how they stand as to that. It is the sort of test ques- tion that Liberals should ask themselves. In May 1919 Mr. Sidney Arnold gave his party a good lead in the matter by raising the question on the Budget debate. He proposed a graduated levy on fortunes of over 2,000 in order to raise 6,000,000,000 and clear off the great bulk of the debt. He defended his proposal ably, and is entitled to the same credit as Mr. Pethick Lawrence for facing the truth. The effect of his speech was, however, a good deal damaged at the outset by his leader, Sir Donald Maclean, who told the House that he was unable to give an unqualified support to this proposal at the present time ! Three weeks later, the Manchester Liberal Federation endorsed the capital levy in a vague form, proposing " to liquidate," not a definite 6,000,000,000, but " a large part of the war debt," by a capital levy, but this was turned down at the meeting of the National Federation at Birmingham in November. The Federation voted in favour of a tax on war profits and an inquiry into the proposal of a general capital 196 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA levy, an amendment moved by Major Barnes, M.P., in favour of Mr. Arnold's scheme, being 41 declared lost by an overwhelming majority." Meantime, the scheme appears to have been undergoing a process of " dilution." There is no longer any serious thought of paying the whole or any great portion of the debt ; the levy is merely recognized as one method of relieving the Chancellor's mind by reducing the unfunded part of it. " What would happen," says Lieut.-Commander Hilton Young, M.P., in the Daily News, " would be that the Govern- ment would take securities to the value, say, of a thousand million, which represented true wealth, and would use them to retire floating debt to the same amount representing paper and air." Now this sort of thing is no use at all. The floating debt may be an embarrassment to Ministers, but it is the debt as a whole, its immensity, not the way it is held, that is the ultimate problem for the nation. A small capi- tal levy may be a better expedient than an excess profits duty, or even a tax on war profits for funding the debt, but it is open to many of the objections which apply to them, if regarded as a settlement of the problem. Each expedient leaves the country to face an enormous annual demand for interest, which must be met in good years and in bad alike, without handing over PARTIES AND POLITICS 197 to the nation any adequate assets to meet this liability. This means crushing taxation even in boom years, and a perfectly hopeless state of things in times of depression. If Parliament has nothing better to offer the country than this, the only alternatives before us are the slow strangulation of British industry or a revolution based on " direct action." With regard to foreign politics, Free Liberalism is, I fear, approaching the matter with far too easy a conscience. Whether due to their fault or not, it was under a Liberal administration that the greatest calamity in history actually broke out, and for this it is from official Liberal- ism and not from the Coalition that an explana- tion is due to the world. It may be possible to give such an explanation, but one is obviously wanted. You cannot have such a terrible event occurring when you are in charge of affairs and then treat it as a matter of course that you are not to blame. Now, ever since the war broke out, there has been a world-wide discussion of its causes, and of the means that should be taken to prevent such a catastrophe in the future. This discussion has not been without result, and a very general consensus of opinion, not by any means confined to advanced politicians, has been arrived at as to the ways to prevent future wars. The proposals made in a previous chapter embody, in an extreme way, perhaps, 198 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA these opinions, but it is certain that, even as they stand, they would be welcomed by millions of thinking people throughout the world. Some of them would be approved by almost every one who has given any serious attention to the subject. What would the Liberal Party actually do, if it were returned to power, about the reduc- tion of armaments, about open diplomacy, or the League of Nations ? The sixteen resolutions carried at the Birming- ham meeting of the National Liberal Federation mention only the last of these points, the Federa- tion apparently not being willing to commit itself to open diplomacy or disarmament. We get, however, a definite expression of opinion from the Manchester Federation, who demand that " no treaty or understanding with any other nation should be entered into without the consent of the League and then only when agreed to by Parliament." As there was no League of Nations till after the war, the Liberal Government cannot be blamed for not referring any understandings and treaties made to it, but there was a Parlia- ment, which it was possible for the Liberal Government to consult. Does, then, the Liberal Party approve or disapprove of the Manchester demand ? and if the former, does its approval imply a censure on the late Liberal Government ? The foreign policy of Free PARTIES AND POLITICS 199 Liberalism wants clearing up perhaps more than anything else. Mr. Asquith has several times stated that the country needs a return to " Liberal principles " ; if so, it is extremely important to know what Liberal principles imply in foreign affairs. I know no more pathetic story than that of Sir Edward Grey's struggle for peace in the fortnight before the outbreak of war. Far more than any other statesman in those dark days, he realized the terrible responsibility that rested upon him ; no one felt, I am sure, more strongly than he the tragedy of his failure. Nevertheless, this ques- tion must be put in all seriousness : Is it for his policy or that of Lord Granville and the Gladstone era that Free Liberalism stands ? The policy of Gladstone's Cabinet at the time of the Franco-German War was directed to securing the observance of the Belgian neutrality treaties of 1831 and 1839 which were published, and guaranteed by us. These treaties are two- sided : the Great Powers on the one part under- take to respect the neutrality of Belgium, which country agrees to preserve its own neutrality. This latter provision was one, of which, I presume, the statesmen of the time saw the absolute necessity. We would not commit ourselves or in any way undertake to defend another country, unless we were first assured that that country would not mix itself up in general politics and 200 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA incur the danger of invasion. With that guar- antee, however, it was a wise treaty. We had been drawn time and again into war on the Continent because of the Low Countries, and it was a very good thing in the interest of peace to define our attitude clearly and to make sure that the new kingdom would not act in such a way as to make our intervention necessary. When there was felt to be a danger of the violation of Belgian neutrality in 1870, the British Government, to fulfil our obligation, put the most effective pressure possible on the belligerents. On August 9, 1870, it obtained from the French and German ambassadors treaties, obviously drawn up by us, and in identical terms, undertaking that, in the event of France or Prussia violating the neutrality of Belgium, we would " co-operate " with Prussia or France " for the defence of the same in such a manner as may be mutually agreed upon." Such a policy was perfectly clear ; it pledged us definitely to fight if Belgium were touched and to remain neutral if she were left at peace. Further, we left no opening for bargaining ; we simply stated how we meant to act, and left it at that. Now, neither Bismarck nor Napoleon III was a very scrupulous person, and the latter was known to covet the possession of Belgium, but both perfectly understood this sort of diplomacy ; PARTIES AND POLITICS 201 it meant that if they meddled with Belgium they were certain to have us against them, and that if they left her alone we were equally certain to leave them alone. The result is history. Belgian neutrality was respected, and we were not drawn into the war. As Ministers of a free country, too, the Cabinet were perfectly justified in the course they took. They committed the nation to nothing except the loyal fulfilment of an engagement made long before their time. That was Liberal policy as it was understood in 1870. Sir Edward Grey, faced with the prospect of war between France and Germany, did nothing of the kind. When the crisis came he had to deal with the same state of things as the Liberal Government of 1870. We still were committed to the Belgian Treaties, not by him, but by his predecessors ; and when Belgian neutrality was again threatened his first duty was to secure the observance of this public engagement of the British people, and to do nothing that would weaken his power to enforce it. It had been done successfully once, and it was his duty to take precisely the course adopted by Lord Granville in 1870. From the first he took up a far weaker position. He did not even state clearly that we would defend Belgium ; his words to the German ambassador are : " If there were a violation of the neutrality of Belgium 202 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA by one combatant while the other respected it, it would be extremely difficult to restrain public feeling in this country." " The ambassador then pressed me," he says, " to formulate conditions on which we would remain neutral." This he refused to do, only stating that we would " keep our hands free." Now Sir Edward Grey's hands were not free. As our Foreign Minister, he was pledged to the only obligation to which the country was publicly committed, the security of Belgium. He was dealing with an unscrupulous militarism, in a tight place, and willing to bid largely for our neutrality, yet he deliberately refused to play his strongest card. That he could have been as successful as Lord Granville, if he had been content to follow the excellent precedent set by that statesman, is the only conclusion I can come to from the correspondence. It may be said that in one respect the position was different from that of 1870. Prussian ascendancy then was not regarded as a, danger to us, while in 1914 we would be just as unwilling to see the Germans established in France as in Belgium. If so, there was a case for coming to the same sort of agreement with France as we had done with Belgium in 1839, on two absolutely essential conditions : the arrangement should take the form of a definite public treaty to be laid before Parliament as now demanded PARTIES AND POLITICS 203 by the Manchester Liberal Federation, and France should give us a guarantee of her own neutrality. Lord Grey has told us that he had never seen the Franco-Russian treaty of alliance and did not know its terms. Till he saw that treaty, while he was quite able to say that the invasion of Belgium was an act of wanton aggression, he had no reason to believe that, once Germany was engaged in war with Russia, France was not bound by treaty to attack her in the rear. Until he could give Germany a guarantee of French neutrality, he had no right to concern himself with any country except Belgium. There were two policies open to us, a definite defensive engagement to help France in the event of wanton invasion, accompanied with complete information about all France's commit- ments and a clear statement of the terms on which alone our aid would be given. This we might have accepted after full consideration ; failing it, we should have stuck rigidly to the policy of 1870. Almost any definite engagement is capable of some defence ; if it were not so, no one would think of making it. Vague " un- derstandings " are simply bad diplomacy. Now it is essential that Free Liberalism should state exactly what its policy is on the question of open diplomacy. No question is more im- mediately practical or more widely understood. 204 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA Vague approval of the League of Nations, such as that embodied in the National Liberal Federa- tion's resolution, will not do. Before any party has a right to seek for power, it is necessary to know what it has to say on the whole anti- militarist programme that has been discussed before the world by innumerable agencies right through the six years of agony. There has been most justifiable comment on the slackness of the Labour Party in the House of Commons. Coming to the new Parlia- ment the strongest of the Opposition parties, because of the determination of the Sinn Fein representatives from Ireland to take no part in its deliberations, they have lost, mainly by their own defects, the outstanding position that should have been secured for them. One of the most striking features of the election in 1918 was the clean sweep it made of the front benches of the Opposition parties. Mr. Asquith's Ministers, those of them, that is, who had not joined the Coalition, almost all lost their seats, while Messrs. MacDonald, Snowden, and others, the most familiar figures on the Labour side, were not returned to the new House. This deprived both parties of political prestige and Parliamentary experience, and flung upon new and untried members the responsibility for creat- ing a front bench capable of holding its own with the leading debaters of the Unionist Party, PARTIES AND POLITICS 205 headed by such a leader as Mr. Lloyd George. There can be no question that Sir Donald Maclean and his little group rose to the occasion, and little doubt that Labour, as a whole, failed to do so. To some extent this is excusable. After all, a great Parliamentary leader must have a touch of genius, and genius is not a thing that can be manufactured to order. Mr. Clynes, who not long before was a Coalition Minister, is probably the ablest of the older hands who secured re- election in 1918, for Mr. Henderson was only returned at a by-election, while new members like Messrs. Spoor and McLean, had to make their Parliamentary reputation in the party alongside of men who were much better known in the Trades Union world. This, however, does not excuse the failure of the party to vote its full strength in the division lobby. Want of attention to the ordinary work of Parliament is an inexcusable fault. Though many occasions arise in which a member or his party may rightly decide not to vote at all, and many others may occur when illness or important public business of other kinds is an adequate reason for absence, a member of Parliament, in common fairness to his consti- tuents and his party, should always be able to give a reason why he abstained from a divi- sion. The Party outside the House, both leaders and rank and file, is rapidly advancing far beyond its representatives within it, and it is urgently necessary that the Parliamentary party should pull itself together, keep more closely in touch with the movement outside, and assert its rightful position as the strongest Opposition party in the House. Turning from the politics of Free Liberalism to those of Labour outside of Parliament seems like leaving a century behind. The central propositions of this book that capitalism has made Europe bankrupt and created problems which cannot " be solved within the present order of society " and that " the day is coming when no people will be content to rule another or be ruled by any other," were never more clearly put than by Mr. Hutchinson in his address to the Annual Conference of the party in June. Much that I had written before this speech was made seems merely a comment on Mr. Hutchinson's words, which were received with loud applause by the 1,200 representatives of over three million organized workers who attended the Conference. Beside me as I write are various pamphlets just issued by the party, the very titles of which are enough to show how fresh is the outlook of Labour. This freshness of outlook is natural enough in a party having so short a history, and founded in the first instance as a revolt against accepted PARTIES AND POLITICS 207 political traditions. In such a rapidly changing world as we have to-day, a fresh outlook is a vital necessity for any party that is to be of real use. We find, therefore, during the course of the war itself the party stating that the war is " consuming not merely the security, the homes, the livelihood, and the lives of innocent families, and an enormous proportion of the accumulated wealth of the world, but also the very basis of the peculiar social order in which it has arisen." The italics are mine. The wish may have been father to the thought, but whether this was so or not, the fundamental change brought about by the war was fully realized by its authors. The pamphlets show the international outlook of the party as clearly as they do its perception of the revolutionary character of the time. This appears equally in the criticisms of the peace terms and in the Memoranda on Inter- national Labour Legislation, the title of one of them. For though at its outbreak the Labour Inter- national broke down,* the effect of the war as * The Women's International, however, did not break down. The Women's International Council of Socialist and Labour Organizations, which had been founded some years earlier, with Frau Clara Zetkin as International Secretary, contrived to meet at Berne in March 1915. Thirty delegates, representing eight different nations, were present. " The resolutions of the Conference," says Miss Mary Longman (now Frau Stenbach) showed an agreement 208 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA a whole has been to make the outlook of the Labour movement more international than ever before. The complete failure of Labour and Socialism to organize an international revolt against the war was a terrible disappointment to many ardent spirits who had worked long years for Labour and internationalism, but it was hardly a surprise to those who reflected on what had happened on similar occasions ever since the world began. " Considered from the point of view of the community and not from the point of view of the individual," says Dr. Sarolea, " patriotism is mainly the instinct of self-preservation. It is the collective instinct which compels the citizen to rise in defence of his country when it is threatened by a foreign invader. . . . This patriotism is not a moral virtue. Rather it is an organic necessity. It is a spontaneous vital reaction of the community." Now, at the outbreak of war every country felt itself " threat end by a foreign invader," and whether or not he approved of the diplomacy of his rulers, the average man everywhere re- sponded to this elemental instinct. This is well seen by Haase's speech in the Reichstag at the which was achieved without difficulty. ... It showed that belligerents can meet and discuss the situation." And though it was found impossible to hold another conference during the war, correspondence never ceased between the women's organizations during the whole four years of war. PARTIES AND POLITICS 209 outbreak of the war. " We are standing," said Haase, " before an hour of fate, the result of Imperial policy. The responsibility for this falls on those who have conducted this diplomacy. We refuse to accept it. Social Democracy has fought this fateful development with all its power, and until the last moment it has stood for the preservation of peace through impressive demonstrations in all countries. The struggle has been in vain. We stand now before the iron fact of war. The horrors of invasion threaten us. We have not now to decide for or against war, but upon a question concerning the necessary supplies for the defence of the country." These quotations from Dr. Sarolea and Herr Haase explain the failure of the Socialist Inter- national in 1914. When there is serious danger of seeing their homes destroyed and their land overrun by a foreign enemy, people really care very little about the rights or wrongs of the quarrel. They may " refuse to accept " the responsibility for the diplomacy of their rulers that has led to the calamity, but whatever may have been the faults of their statesmen, they are determined that the invader shall not enter their land if they can help it. Elemental instinct overcomes everything and carries away all but a minute minority of idealists. When war breaks out civilization collapses. I am convinced this is what happened all over 14 210 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA Europe in 1914. It would have happened just the same if there had been no faults or blunders on one side, and an impartial spectator would have placed all the blame on the other. I think if we will honestly face the fact we shall admit that, if this country had been led by the worst man who ever lived into a perfectly in- excusable war of aggression, not one Englishman in a hundred would be willing to see a foreign army planted on our soil for all that. We might hang the responsible Ministers after the war was over, but we would keep the enemy out in the meanwhile. Yet, rational and ethical impulses are as truly human as those we share with the savage and the wolf, and in human affairs they are in the long run the victorious things ; it is almost a platitude to say that civilization itself con- sists in their progressive growth. The Labour movement soon began to recover itself. As early as February 1915 a conference of Allied Socialists was held in London, and while point- ing out the responsibility of Germany for the immediate occasion of war, it laid the ultimate blame on the international anarchy which had rendered German militarism possible, and for which all Governments were responsible. Opinion steadily ripened throughout the Labour parties of Europe, and the underlying causes of the war became more and more considered. PARTIES AND POLITICS 211 The constructive instincts of the movement asserted themselves, and the line of division throughout Europe between Labour and Capi- talist Imperialism became more and more clearly marked. In the British Labour Party this tendency was manifest. The fact that the Labour Party has to-day a clear view on the gravity of the world crisis, together with a party programme in home and foreign politics, to which people who have faced the facts must at least give serious consideration, is due partly to the contin- ual efforts of the party itself to collect and digest information on the problem on its own initiative, and partly to its much greater willingness to consider and accept ideas evolved by the inde- pendent agencies which have arisen all over the world and have specialized on particular aspects of it. These ideas have been circulated throughout the Labour movement by the Soci- alist organizations within it, especially by the wide-spread branches of the I.L.P. It is the special mission of these organizations to oxidize the life blood of the Labour movement, so to speak, to keep it fresh with ideas and the spirit of revolt. Through the Socialist parties the influence of such new organizations as the Union of Democratic Control and the Women's International League have been enabled to reach the Trade Unions, and the conferences organized 212 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA by women, both of the Socialist International and of the League, in the earlier days of the war, and the principles of foreign policy laid down in the publications of the union have helped to render possible the Labour outlook of to-day. But the self-education taken in hand by the party itself has been a most exemplary part of its work. This covers both home and foreign questions. Though it is notorious enough that there has been a succession of Labour deputations to the various neutral, allied, and enemy countries since the armistice, the full implication of this has not always been realized. The Labour Party's accredited representatives have made a first- hand study of present conditions in Europe, and are personally acquainted with foreign leaders of similar opinions and the state of feeling abroad. It has been said that there are only two kinds of travellers who can get passports to-day, million- aires and Labour leaders. The consequence is that at a Labour Party Conference a large pro- portion of the delegates speak with fresh and first-hand knowledge of foreign problems, a thing quite impossible in a conference of either of the other parties. A proposal made at the Scarborough Conference to appoint a permanent agent and correspondent of the party in each of the leading countries is now under considera- tion, so that Labour may soon have a foreign intelligence department of its own. Does this PARTIES AND POLITICS 213 not prove the initiative of the party and the modernity of its outlook on international affairs ? In domestic politics methods equally new to party work are employed. For some years the Fabian Society conducted a research depart- ment for the purpose of accumulating and tabulating information of all kinds likely to be useful to the Labour movement. Last year this department was greatly extended and transferred to Eccleston Square to keep in touch with the Labour Party and the Parliamentary Committee of the Trades Union Congress. It is now part of the general organization of the Labour movement and is provided with a singu- larly capable staff. Expert advisory commit- tees of men and women gather and sift informa- tion on questions like international Labour legislation, the nationalization of the mines, housing (on which a remarkable inquiry was conducted by women connected with the party, who collected the opinions of about ten thousand housewives upon the requirements of a working- class house, and astonished a committee of architects by their knowledge of the subject), as well as upon freedom of trade and other subjects of more conventional politics. In short, the Labour Party has gone far to realize the import of the fact that the war has brought us a new world. The outlook is the outlook of that new world, the condition neces- 214 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA sary before all others for a party that is to have a future. And it is only such a party that it is worth while to substitute for the Coalition with all its many sins of omission and commission. We must have no more coalitions. If there is ever to be an agreement between the Labour Party and any other it must be based on the acceptance without reserve of the destruction of Capitalistic Imperialism, by transferring the ownership of land and industrial capital to the State and the control to the people who work them, accompanied by a frank recognition of the right of self-government to every nation within or without the Empire. But if any two organizations do accept that programme, their united forces will not be a coalition, they will be one party. Is there any chance of gaining a complete electoral victory for such a party as this ? While recognizing the difficulty of the task, I nevertheless believe there soon will be. Facts, however carefully hidden, have an awkward habit of asserting themselves, and it is a fact that the old order of society has brought upon itself its own ruin. The reaction against the Government has not proceeded anything like far enough as yet. Revolutions are not made by majorities such as can effect ordinary changes of government ; they are brought about only when a nation has become all but unanimous PARTIES AND POLITICS 215 in its condemnation of the existing state of things. All France was against the old regime in 1789 ; all Russia, however it may be divided since, was determined to be rid of the Tsar. Such wide-spread disillusionment as this only comes about in the very last days of an old system ; as long as things seem to be working at all tolerably many people would rather put up with it than enter upon ways to them untried. A creaking gate hangs long, unless something comes and smashes it down. That something has come in Russia and Central Europe through defeat ; in Western Europe it must assuredly come when the price of victory is realized. And this realization cannot be long delayed. Neither this Government, nor any that is not prepared to make a revolutionary change in its methods, can obtain peace in Ireland, nor for that matter in India or Egypt. Until we have a new basis for industry we cannot come to any terms with organized Labour. As long as the present system continues we shall have strikes of all sorts, lightning strikes, organized strikes, great strikes and small strikes, which the workers may often fail to win, but by which the community will always lose. No capitalistic Government can avoid constant deficits in the Budget, involving constant in- creases in taxation, constant disturbances to trade, and discontent everywhere : for no \ 216 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA capitalistic Government dare attempt to deal with the debt in any effective way, or to take a strong lead in international disarmament. It is the duty of every one who realizes the actual state of things to-day and has a vision of the future to join in opposition to the Coali- tion and in making converts for Labour, but the propaganda of events, the spreading realiza- tion through experience of the impossibility of continuing on the old lines will do far more than anything else to convince the nation. Eng- land is at the parting of the ways. She may struggle to continue her old methods, refusing to attempt the new that way lies decay ; she may try the way of " direct action " and government by Soviet that is the way perhaps of new life, but of a new life obtained through anarchy and bloodshed ; or she may, while there is yet time, take a way of constitutional revolution equally effective, and of far better promise for the use she will make of her deliver- ance afterwards. All depends upon the grit and courage of Young England. We older men, we antedi- luvians, as we pass one by one from the scene, leave to them a world desolated by the flood of war. It has swept away for ever or rendered useless many of the institutions which otherwise it might have taken half their lives to destroy. They can build again as they like, and the PARTIES AND POLITICS 217 future England will be their handiwork, the nobility or baseness of the fabric will be a witness to yet later ages of their valour or cowardice. They enter upon a world over which the waters of the flood have passed ; let them make sure that they return not again to cover the earth. OF the complex of things which go to make up the civilization of a nation at any given time, some are permanent, being essential to human life ; others, more striking perhaps because of their contrast with the civilizations of other lands and ages, are, however, in their nature temporary, and may at any time be modified indefinitely or even dispensed with altogether. The needs for self-preservation and for repro- duction, the instincts of hunger and sex, compel men to till the ground, and constrain the majority to form family groups of some kind or other. Whatever form of social order emerges from the present chaos, it is obvious that these things must be reproduced in it, even if half the population of Europe die of starvation before a working order is established. On the spade and the cradle everything in human life is founded ; on them depends everything in our civilization from Church and State down to the Stock Exchange and Futurist art. Besides those things which have existed ever 5218 THE NEW PATRIOTISM 219 since human life existed, there are others which, now that they have once taken root, seem equally permanent. I doubt whether the progress of civilization has ever really been arrested, even for a time. The despairing wonder with which the modern poet or artist looks back at ancient Athens may make him think that humanity has retrograded since the days of Pericles. One sees, however, that the decay and conquest of Greece, its absorption in the Roman Empire, the decline and fall of the Empire itself were the means of scattering the germs of Hellenic and Roman civilization over the world. Ancient civilizations were only islets in a sea of barbarism, and even in the Middle Ages mankind as a whole was probably farther advanced than in the greatest days of Athens. Particularly is this the case on the me- chanical side of civilization. Inventions which appeal only to the learned or even to people brought up to city life or to luxury may indeed be lost, but those that are practically useful to a rude society are always, I should think, permanent acquisitions. When once the wind or water mill has been invented, it is never forgotten, even in countries of far lower civiliza- tion than that of New Testament Palestine, where women ground their corn in the quern. This is true of things evil as well as of those that are good. No doubt Alexander and Hannibal 220 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA were very much abler generals than the captains of the Middle Ages. The skill of such com- manders might have done much to adjust matters, but I fancy the archers of Cre"cy would have been very much more efficient than the slingers of a Greek army, and that mediaeval armour was a distinct improvement on that of the ancients. Mechanical inventions useful in the ordinary work of life, once made and fairly wide spread, are made for all time. Things which serve some more specialized need may, on the other hand, depend for their survival on the continuance of the more complex civilization which has produced them. The wider the area over which the invention is known, however, the larger the number and the more widely scattered over the world the places in which the thing invented is made, the less likely will it be to be lost alto- gether. I do not think however terrible or prolonged the agony through which our civilization is destined to pass may be, that any important part of our scientific and mechanical knowledge can be permanently lost to mankind. Even if the folly of the world rulers equal that of the Emperors who made the war and the Allied Statesmen who made the peace and should con- tinue till all order and civilization perish for a time, if the famine threatening the world reduce THE NEW PATRIOTISM 221 population to a remnant, yet that remnant will retain the keys to all our knowledge. It will not be ages, as after the overthrow of Rome, before culture and knowledge revive, even in Europe ; while it is almost inconceivable that they can be lost, even for a time, in America. Through whatever nightmare we may have to pass, man will not lose the art of reading, and among the multiplicity of printed books enough will survive to render the revival of knowledge easy. The centre of culture may be removed to Cairo or Pekin, but it will still be a culture aware of and influenced by Western thought. At home, England may no longer be a direct political influence ; we may interest the rest of the world chiefly as the country where Magna Carta was signed, where Shakespere and Newton were born, but those that are left of us will still be a civilized people, however changed. The shareholder and the landlord may have gone, but the ploughman for all time and the miner for as long as our coal supplies last will remain. But few people, especially English people, realize the whole wilderness of things going to make up the life into which they have been born and to which they have become accustomed that are not thus deeply rooted. Perhaps it may be due to our insular position, and our consequent freedom from invasion and external interference, 222 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA but I think English people are especially apt to regard everything they see around them as equally permanent. They are certainly adapt- able enough ; no nation has produced more adventurous travellers or more numerous colonists. Yet no sooner does the daring travel- ler from the equator or the pole set his foot again on the London pavements than he becomes as complete a slave to every British convention as if he had never left Pall Mall. The notion that England can travel, that her soul can absorb a new idea or forget an old fallacy, that an established institution can ever dis- appear or a new one ever arise never occurs to him. He comes back from his adventures like a boy from his sports, complacently certain that his mother will be just the same as when he went away. If, on the whole, he has rarely been disap- pointed, it is because this country has seldom been subjected to any of those shocks that compel sudden changes. The machinery of society has never broken down, even during our periods of war, for war has never visited our own country. Perhaps the nearest approach to a crisis of this kind we have experienced for centuries was that which took place at the outbreak of the recent war, when, for a few days, the whole mechanism of exchange was thrown out of gear. The effect was startling. THE NEW PATRIOTISM 223 It became evident to every one in a moment that the individualistic ideas on which British affairs had been conducted in peaceful times would not bear the strain of war conditions. Without time to think, making many blunders in the doing of it, anti- Socialist statesmen were driven by the logic of events to take over the control of numerous social activities hither- to abandoned entirely to private enterprise. The thing was not well done, and no wonder considering the hurry in which, and the men by whom the scheme had to be carried out ! but the arrangement, such as it is, has worked, a thing the highly developed individualism which it replaced had entirely failed to do. The crisis of peace is coming less suddenly upon us than that of war, but when it comes it is difficult to see how it is to be dealt with in such a summary manner. It is not a question of getting goods to circulate and credit re-established in any manner that will work for the moment, but of making arrangements that will run smoothly and permanently. The conservative-minded Briton must learn to grasp the idea of far-reaching change in things which he has fixedly regarded as parts of nature itself. It is in England herself, not on the Congo or the Amazon, that the adventurous Englishman must expect to find the unhackneyed experience, the new adventure. Well for him 224 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA and well for England, if he can bring to this task the fine temper of his race, the courage under hardships, the initiative and the energy he has shown in other lands. But when he founded New England or Australia the adventurous Englishman knew perfectly well that he had nothing to expect for years but the first necessaries of life. Nor was he under any delusion as to what were the necessaries of life, or that he himself must take part in the work of providing them. He might some day come back to England for a holiday, when of course, it went without say- ing, he would find everything just as he left it ; but in the new land he was frankly prepared to find everything different, to submit to entirely new and less luxurious ways of living, and he had made up his mind to make the best of them. Now, of course, I do not mean to say that the conditions in England, in the immediate future are going to be like those faced by the pioneer colonist and the traveller in barbarous lands. What I am trying to convey is that they must of necessity be so very different from those to which we have become accus- tomed at home, that we can only face them adequately by accepting unfamiliar conditions, with the adaptability and open-mindedness of the pioneer. English life is not " settled " any THE NEW PATRIOTISM 225 longer, nor can be for many years ; on the contrary, everything must necessarily be in a state of flux. Whatever is artificial in our state of society is threatened, and much of it will surely be destroyed or greatly changed. The British Constitution, the Bank of England, the Stock Exchange, Piccadilly, and Pall Mall, fox-hunting and game preserving are not essential parts of the order of nature, and we must accustom ourselves to regard the social and political life which these things conjure up in our minds as something that may soon pass away altogether. Whether it is the same with other nations I do not know, but I think most English- men have a very vague idea of what is and what is not essential to our civilization. As a whole, no doubt they vastly over-estimate its values, but this over-estimate is rarely accompanied by any definite knowledge of the things on which pride in the civilization of England might most reasonably be based. Not one Englishman in ten has read Shakespere, not one in a hundred Milton, not one in a thou- sand Bacon. Many are real experts in their own particular studies, but it is not good form to talk " shop," and the scientist knows little or nothing of art, the poet nothing of science. Politics is the only serious subject they discuss together, and the political ideas of some of the 15 226 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA ablest men are enough to make angels weep. They meet on common ground, on the tennis lawn or at the billiard table. And right through- out I think that the faults of the British Philistine are far less due to lack of capacity than of development. It is quite a common thing to find men and women of striking natural ability, whose minds are nevertheless as little open to the light as those of far inferior natures. People naturally witty, good at games of skill, far more able, indeed, than others who have done notable and even brilliant work in some important department of life, are to be found in every drawing-room. I am convinced that intellect is much more common than intellectual ambition. Society in England is largely domin- ated by an ideal of " good form " which implies on its positive side a sound ideal of conduct and manners generally well observed, and on its negative an almost total absence of ideas. This attitude accords well with a belief in the stability of existing things, and does not work so badly when things really are stable. In days when rapid and fundamental change is necessary, it is anything but admirable. Then it is essential that people should be pre- pared to analyse the social form to which they have become accustomed, to understand what part of it is really necessary and abiding, and how much of it is merely temporary, called intp THE NEW PATRIOTISM 227 existence by transitory conditions. As habit is second nature, most men accept these latter as naturally as the first ; the idea of country and all it stands for becomes a complex of everything they have known in it permanent or impermanent. In advanced states of civilization, in the artificial life of great towns the things least deeply rooted seem to the rich most characteristic and important, because they touch most closely their own experience. Thus you get a literature specializing in secondary emotions, such as the novels of Henry James, too subtle to be intelligible to people in a simpler age. That the British people have not lost their elasticity, their power to respond to the unex- pected, was shown both by the splendid response to the appeal for help at the outset of the war, when so many millions of all ranks joined the colours, and by the constancy with which the conscientious objectors refused to do so later on. There was a common element in both cases, the power to respond to an ideal, and to accept for its sake conditions of life, in the trenches or in prison, totally different from those to which our young men had become accustomed. The soldiers' business, however, is concerned with only two things, destruction at worst, defence at the best ; creation does not enter into it at all. Now the highest adventure of the human spirit is not destruction or even 228 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA defence, however necessary, but creation. The life of even the greatest soldier qua soldier is a failure. It may be necessary for me to defend myself against attack, but even when the defence is successful the whole business is nevertheless unsatisfactory. The satisfaction of life is to be found in making things, not in preventing other people from breaking them. I consider that if a man dies without leaving behind some work of his hand or brain, were it only Swift's " two blades of grass," to show for his activities, he has failed in self-realization, whatever works of defence or destruction he may have accomplished. The spirit of adventure is strong in the English people. Men and women alike eagerly volun- teered for any service and faced, in the ranks or in the Red Cross, the terrors of death and of injuries worse than death. And they did so, there is no denying it, often at least, with a sense of joy, with a new exaltation of spirit. There was an atmosphere almost lyrical in England in 1914, though the songs that gave expression to it might not be gems of art. They were out on a high adventure, though only an adventure of defence, a defence that involved terrible destruction, an adventure which, when completed, could at best leave open the way to better work of creation. And to far too great an extent the adventurous THE NEW PATRIOTISM 229 spirit of our people, on the rare occasions on which it has found vent at all, and not merely been suppressed by sordid circumstances, has been of a purely negative and destructive char- acter. "It is a fine day. Let us go out and kill something," is the saying attributed to the average Englishman by foreign critics, and that not necessarily in contempt, but in a friendly if uncomprehending spirit. True, our pioneers have founded nations in the desert, but nations cannot be founded every day, and I fear our gilded youth have been much more given to shooting big game and domineering over negroes than to bringing unruly soils under the plough; they have been more accustomed to the rifle than to the spade. Yet our literature is evi- dence of the idealism of the race, the very aspect of England itself bears witness to its latent capacity for creation. It seems to me that there is an essential characteristic of English civilization which justifies it as our national contribution to the culture of the world. I suppose that were it not for our poetry we should hardly be accorded a place of any importance among the nations in the world of art, and yet until the industrial towns arose and covered thousands of acres with hideous buildings and hid half the country in a cloud of smoke, it seems that few people can have worked more sympathetically with nature 230 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA to reveal the fairness of their land. We have borrowed much from the Latin countries, and if what they owe to France and Italy were taken away from our literature and our art we should make a very modest show indeed. Yet I think we have added to what they lent us an element of our own, a marked and recurrent note, the love of open-air life. Our plastic art looks rather poor beside the achievements of other nations, and yet I think, however over- stated, there was some truth at the root of Ruskin's enthusiasm for the landscape painters of England : Turner, at least, seems one of the world's great masters. And little as the average Englishman cares for the classics of his literature, his kinship with them shows itself here at least. This is the country of field sports, of a genuine love of the sea, of fields divided by green hedges, and gardens laid out with as little artifice as possible. There is thus an instinctive and popular naturalism in what is best in English civilization, a love of open-air freedom. Of this naturalism the highest expression is to be found in our poetry, nowhere I think more clearly than in the pro- logues of the Canterbury Tales. None of our poets owed more to France and Italy than Chaucer. He has a French grace, while none of his greater work would have been written if he had never visited Italy and learnt its language. Yet THE NEW PATRIOTISM 231 Chaucer seems to me as certainly the most thoroughly English of our poets as Burns is characteristically Scotch. And, very largely, what he did was to take the creations of the Latin spirit into the open air. What success we have met with in plastic art seems to me to have largely depended on the extent to which it has been possible to do the same thing. Thus, the more nearly our painting approaches to pure landscape the better it seems to stand comparison with similar work from other nations. In sculpture, where unfortunately the only avail- able form of open-air treatment is to put statues bodily in the street, we have perhaps made more public displays of artistic incompetence than all other nations put together. It is this love of the open air and all that it implies, so much older than our industries and Imperial greatness, that forms one of the most characteristic " notes " of English civi- lization ; our long tradition and experience of relatively free government is another. Mr. George Brandes has said that among our great poets of the early nineteenth century not one of them was a scientist, while all but Keats were politicians. The first of these judgments shows how much Englishmen are centred in their own special interests ; the second gives us the exception. " Every one of these is- landers," quotes Mr. Brandes from some one, 232 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA " is himself an island." He is interested in his own pursuits, but he won't let any one " talk shop," and nobody else will let him do so either. The consequence is he gets to know nothing about anything that is going on in the world apart from his own particular section of it, with the one exception of politics. This has been more or less a subject of common interest since Magna Carta, or at least since the House of Commons was constituted, and has become perhaps more than anywhere else a matter of general discussion. Our long fight for freedom is a legitimate subject for national pride. I could almost wish that, if it were possible, some one would act the play of Hamlet with Hamlet left out over the grave of Shakespere as a fitting punishment for writing the History of King John without mentioning the Great Charter. These characteristics of English life are far older and more deeply rooted than anything that was peculiar to the social order of 1914. That order was the result of the industrial revolution, and of the Imperial expansion of the last century and a-half. Capitalistic Impe- rialism is a feature of an age, not of a place ; the fact that we have established a stronger capitalism than most and a wider Empire than any other nation is at least as much due to our insular position as to any special national THE NEW PATRIOTISM 233 instinct. And national character, though it, too, has an origin and a growth of its own, is a far more persistent thing than any form of industrial organization ; it can make its quality felt through feudalism, despotism, small-scale production, and even an era of gigantic trusts. Perhaps, once born and firmly established, it is immortal, or why should art revive first in Italy, on that Etruscan soil where it flourished three thousand years ago ? and why should the political genius of Rome rise again in the Church when the Empire had been destroyed ? Thus, the enormous burden of an unproductive class living on dividends and interest, and the concentration in the hands of a Government clique in Whitehall of the affairs of a quarter of the world, are not essential parts of English civilization. Nor do I think they are the things, however they may minister to their pride, which have gained for England the deep-rooted affection of her sons and daughters. Nor is the AUTHORITY of England an essential part of her INFLUENCE, however much it may have helped to spread it in the past. If, therefore, we are approaching a day when authority shall be no more and only influence will count, that is not a reason for despair ; it is rather a call to develop the vital qualities of our civiliza- tion, so that that influence may be as wide and beneficent as possible. 234 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA What is the real justification for the instinct of patriotism ? There is certainly deeply rooted in most people a belief that their own countries are the best in the world. Vulgar-minded people cannot help protruding this conviction when abroad or when speaking to foreigners ; those with decent manners studiously conceal it ; but I think, if we knew all, there are few exceptions to the rule. Of course, it is obvious that there can be only one " best " nation, and it is pretty certain that there is not even one. It is impossible to balance against one another the complexes of great things implied in the words England, France, Italy, or Germany. Any con- siderate person will admit this, and yet, in a way, the common instinct is right. It may be a matter of indifference whether the raw material of humanity, the newly-born baby, be introduced into the civilization and taught the language of France or of England, but that point once decided, and the process of education begun, the civilization of one country rapidly becomes for the child a vastly greater thing than that of the other. It is not the content of a civili- zation that matters to us, but only that part of it which we can assimilate ; and once the child has learnt to think in any language, and has become accustomed to any scenery, the literature of that language and the beauty of that scenery become, almost irrespective of THE NEW PATRIOTISM 235 their actual merits as compared with those of other lands, incomparably more vital and in reality better for him. The man who says that his country is the best in the world is subjectively quite right, however arrogant ; the absurdity comes in when he confuses this sub- jective truth with an objective reality. The same thing applies in the question of family. There is no such person as the best man or woman in the world, though well-married couples may be justified in considering their wives or husbands are. They are for them ; but this comes about largely as the result of becoming accustomed to one another's likings and ways, to the consciousness of a past of common experience and mutual helpfulness. Don Quixote, therefore, was justified in con- sidering Dulcinea del Toboso the most beautiful woman in the world ; he only became mad when he took to fighting any one who did not think so too. And it is in affairs of patriotism as in those of love : we are quite right in thinking our ways are the best for us ; we are entirely wrong in trying to impose them on any one else. Nevertheless, while no individual man or woman matters much, the contribution of a great nation to the civilization of the world is a very important thing indeed. We are making no undue or arrogant claim for England when we assert that her political ideas, her literature, even 236 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA her utilitarian and practical spirit in philosophy, are an essential part of the world's civilization. Perhaps there is no fear of it being finally destroyed, but there is, I think, some danger of our moral influence in the world suffering a disastrous and prolonged eclipse. For three hundred years France has been, on the whole, the leader of men in the world of ideas ; during the same period I think we have come next. That this has been so, however, is due to a shadow that fell over Italy, that loss of liberty which Milton tells us had " damped the glory of Italian wits," and to the deadening rule of the Inquisition in Spain. Thus, the way was open for France to become the intellectual leader of Europe, as well as the foremost military power. It was not until Frenchmen like Voltaire and Montesquieu began to praise and advertise us that we became of any account. It was France that introduced this Gothic nation to the polite society of Europe, and France perhaps was the only country with a strong enough social stand- ing to chaperon such a debutante. Since then I think French and after that British thought have been the most potent influences, more so even than that of Germany, in moulding the progress of the world. But the intellectual prestige of France and England has been buttressed by their recognized positions as Great Powers. For long, France THE NEW PATRIOTISM 237 was the greatest military Power in the world, Great Britain has, hitherto, been the greatest naval Power ; together they were the richest and most progressive industrial nations in Europe. Material aided spiritual prestige, per- haps beyond what was warranted by the posi- tive value of their national contributions to the world's civilization. I cannot believe it possible that either the industrial or the military system of the past can survive the terrible chaos of the present time. Something very much better it may readily be that will, I hope, come out of it, but the system we have known is doomed, and must soon be as dead as feudalism. There will be no great empires in the future ; not even, in a material sense, any great nations, or if so, they will be Russia and the United States, not England, France, or Germany. The Euro- pean War seems destined to bring about with a rush that which, in any event, must have taken place sooner or later, the reduction of the older European countries to their true proportionate value among the nations. For them, I am convinced, the prestige of authority is doomed ; that of influence alone remains attainable. That, too, is threatened ; we may be destined to suffer an eclipse like that which so long paralysed Italy, which has not yet passed away from Spain. But the cultures of France and England, be- sides being dear to the people by whom they 238 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA have been created, are still, I am convinced, of value to the world. And here it will be their own fault if they fail to keep their places. It lies with themselves, amid the inevitable destruc- tion of many things that till recently appeared permanent, to preserve and develop that which is essential. They say that the bee can only sting once ; when it uses its sting it dies. It is so with the form of militarism that has prevailed in Europe during the last fifty years. We feel the burning pain of the sting now, but the creature that gave Europe the wound must soon crawl away to die. And this is not because statesmen and journalists proclaimed that the great struggle was " a war to end war," not because the " big four " after sitting long have hatched a parody of the League of Nations, but because the bound- less cost of the war has destro)^ed the economic basis on which modern militarism rested. It is no use drilling all the young men of a nation and arming them with costly weapons, unless the State has an almost inexhaustible reserve of credit to put its armies in motion and retain them in the field for years. The war has ruined the credit of States ; the debts will exhaust their tax-paying capacity. It will take genera- tions, even of a disarmed Europe, before the economic basis for such another war can be reconstructed. This will surely become apparent THE NEW PATRIOTISM 239 soon, whatever men like M. Clemen ceau and Mr. Churchill choose to think about the matter, and militarism will be destroyed, for a time at least. But on militarism rests Imperialism ; it is, as I have elsewhere said, the " cement of Empire." " Self-determination " is now a fashionable idea. That matters little, what matters is that by no other method can a nation long be governed. Economic stress will sooner or later compel Imperial countries to withdraw their garrisons from the lands they have ruled, just as in the decline of the Empire the Romans did from Britain, leaving the inhabitants free to do as they like. Where authority breaks down, influence may remain, but only if the influence is such as can command respect. To all intents and purposes, such countries as India, Egypt and Ireland, Algeria and Madagascar must ere long become virtually as independent as Poland or Czecho-Slovakia. But this need by no means be the end of the greatness of France and England. The ideal of self-determination for all nations should present no terrors for either of them, for there are no more firmly rooted and stronger nationalities in the world. For centuries they have been, more than most other nations, free to develop their own distinctive civilizations, to fashion town and country after their own taste, to gather a store of national memories, to build 240 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA up great literatures. They start off, therefore, well placed in the race for national influence : all that is wanted is for their peoples to realize the changed position of the world without illusions and without fear. The ideals current in England for the last generation or so were never, I think, very deeply rooted. The new Imperialism was especially quite a recent growth ; fifty years ago every one was a " little Englander," even Disraeli. Possibly in another fifty years every- body will be a little Englander again ; for though it by no means follows that there will be any formal dissolution of the Empire, I feel it is morally certain that English men and women will soon have no authority whatever in the affairs of any country but their own, not in those of Ireland or even of Scotland. You cannot now stop the flood of nationalism ; it will go on to its completion. What we can do is to insist upon self-determination for England. We have as good a right to it as any one. We can import into our own affairs the spirit of hope and confidence with which the younger nations are becoming inspired. After all, the Imperialist fever was never a very English affair : it was far more an enthusiasm of Anglo-Indians, cosmo- politan financiers, ex-Governors-General, and Colonial Prime Ministers. W T hat could these know of England who never England knew ? Are the young men and women of England THE NEW PATRIOTISM 241 ready for this Great Adventure ? Are we, as in Milton's time, " a nation not slow and dull, but of a quick, ingenious, and piercing spirit ; acute to invent, subtile and sinewy to discourse, not beneath the reach of any point that human capacity can soar to " ? If so, Young England will welcome the new condition of things, and find in it an inspiration. Here and there, in the ocean of history, appear islets of splendid achievement, cities like Athens and Florence, where it would seem impossible to throw a stone in the street without danger of hitting an im- mortal genius. Is it accident that causes this ? Must the unconscious stream of Time forever guide the finest particles of human dust into a few isolated pockets of pure gold ? Or is it rather some happy combination of circumstances that frees for a moment the latent creative spirit of man ? The latter seems to me the more reasonable explanation. If so, what an oppor- tunity now lies open to the youth of England ! The new society will not be one in which a few educated men rule over an army of ignorant slaves, but a nation of free men and women. Hitherto such an opportunity has been granted to small minorities of men only, hardly ever, I think, to women. Not until several genera- tions have passed away will it be possible to say with authority whether women share in greater or less degree than men in the creative 16 242 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA capacity of the race or how widespread is the faculty of creation among men themselves. Democracy, which means the granting of full opportunity to all, implies as great an extension of the possibilities of human life as the Baconian philosophy in the sphere of natural science. History preserves an imperfect record of those who actually achieved great things ; it tells us nothing of the numberless " might have beens " of science and of art. To seize the opportunity now before the nation is an act of faith, but surely not of a faith unfounded in reason. The effort needed to overcome the strength of established things, the elation of spirit natural to a great people victorious in a political struggle for the ownership of its own land, may well supply the incentive, and wide- spread education and equal freedom give the needed power for a great triumph of the creative genius of the English people. We older people have made a lamentable failure of our generation ; it has ended and everything characteristic of it is likely soon to end in a general ruin. The young men and women of the land, however, on whom the penalty of our failure has fallen, have shown that they have it in them to do better things than we. They are called to finer work even than they did in the crisis of war. What is required of them now is a new patriotism, a spirit of Creative THE NEW PATRIOTISM 243 Adventure, the free spirit of Mr. H. G. Wells in action. The city of their fathers' imaginings has fallen in ruins. Again, they are on the open road ; they are free to shape an England after the desire of their hearts. Other nations, hither- to enslaved, are starting on the same journey. The greater they become the better it will be for the world and for England. Let us not envy while we emulate them, but let us prove our worth by outstripping them. Let us stand fast only by essentials, determined not to lose our leadership in the things that matter, but to raise in England the most splendid civiliza- tion the world has ever seen. APPENDIX THERE are two points arising out of the pro- posals made in the fifth chapter which call for further comment. As far as buildings and other improvements are concerned, the records of the Land Valuation Department may be accepted as a basis for purchase, but this is not true in the case of the site value itself. A very considerable part of the 6,000,000,000 arises, not from the actual income derived from the land, but is due to anticipations of its increased value when sold for building purposes. The State would, therefore be overcharged if the Lloyd George valuation were accepted as it stands as a basis of compensation for site value. There may be other ways of arriving at a fair adjustment, but I may suggest that, in taking over " undeveloped " land, i.e. land which could be used for some more productive purpose, but is at present idle or only used for agriculture, the rate of compensation should not exceed 50 per acre, that being the amount left free of undeveloped land duty by the Budget of 1910. 344 APPENDIX 245 The second point has been suggested in the text, but not fully dealt with. The holders of old Consol and similar investments that existed before the war have been badly hit in two ways. The capital value of their holdings has shrunk very greatly and the buying power of their incomes heavily declined. They are thus, as I have said, in a pitiable condition. In so far as the rise in prices is permanent, the latter hardship is only their share in the general loss, though it falls with great severity on them. Even on this side, however, as well as for the general benefit of the community, something might be done to ease the situation. For the credit of the country the pound sterling should be restored to its full exchange value as against the dollar or any foreign currency at the earliest possible moment, by recalling excessive paper currency and restoring gold payments. To effect this purpose it will not be necessary to recall all the Treasury notes, but only put the banks in a position to supply gold or notes at their customers' option. Such a deflation of the currency would have a considerable effect in reducing prices and be a relief to the holders of Government stock and all people of limited means. THE STATE SHOULD PAY HONEST MONEY. The State should also take action to restore the selling value of Government stock by buying freely any that comes into the market until 246 ENGLAND AND THE NEW ERA the price rises to par. There is of course an ultimate profit to the nation in buying stock which some day may have to be redeemed at 100 when the holder is willing to sell it at 80 or 85. At the same time the mere fact that Government stock is below par reflects on the financial soundness of the Government. Taxation, heavily graduated against large in- comes, should be kept at a rate high enough to buy any 5 per cent, stock that comes into the market until par value has been reached, and then to purchase old Consols whenever it is profitable to do so, until Government securities are again " gilt-edged," in the sense that the holders can immediately change them into gold at par in any Post Office. This posi- tive policy has its negative counterpart ; when parity between the nominal and real value of Government securities is restored, the Govern- ment should refuse to buy at a premium, however slight. It would then be time to reduce the rate of interest. A STATE BOND FOR 100 SHOULD BE WORTH 100, NEITHER MORE NOR LESS. Printed in Great Britain fry UNWIX BBOTHEBB, LIMITED WOEIKO AND LONDON THE ADVANCE of SOUTH AMERICA A few notes on some interesting books dealing with the past history ; present and future possibilities of the great Continent When in 1906 Mr. Fisher Unwin commissioned the late Major Martin Hume to prepare a series of volumes by experts on the South American Re- publics, but little interest had been taken in the country as a possible field for commercial develop- ment. The chief reasons for this were ignorance as to the trade conditions and the varied resources of the country, and the general unrest and unstability of most of the governments. With the coming of the South American Series of handbooks the financial world began to realize the importance of the country, and, with more settled conditions, began in earnest to develop the remarkable natural resources which awaited outside enterprise. Undoubtedly the most informative books on the various Republics are those included inTHE SOUTH AMERICAN SERIES, each of which is the work of a recognized authority on his subject. " The output of books upon Latin America has in recent years been very large, a proof doubtless ot the increasing interest that is felt in the subject. Of these the ' South American Series ' is the most noteworthy." 'The Times. "When the 'South American Series' is completed, those who take interest in Latin-American affairs will have an invaluable encyclopaedia at their disposal." Westminster Gazette. " Mr. Unwin's 4 South American Series ' of books are of special interest and value to the capitalist and trader." The Chamber of Commerce Journal. Full particulars of the volumes in the " South American Series," also of other interesting books on South America, will be found in the pages following. T. FISHER UNWIN LD,, i ADILPHI TERRACE, LONDON, W.C. t THE SOUTH AMERICAN SERIES CHILE. By G. F. SCOTT ELLIOTT, M.A., F.R.G.S. With an Introduction by MARTIN HUME, a Map and 39 Illustrations. Cloth, i5/-net. [Fifth Impression. " An exhaustive, interesting account, not only of the turbulent history of this country, but of the present con- ditions and seeming prospects." Westminster Gazette. PERU. By C. REGINALD ENOCK, F.R.G.S. With an Introduction by MARTIN HUME, a Map and 64 Illustrations. Cloth, 1 5/- net. [Fourth Impression. " An important work. . . . The writer possesses a quick eye and a keen intelligence ; is many-sided in his interests, and on certain subjects speaks as an expert. The volume deals fully with the de- velopment of the country." The Times. MEXICO. By C. REGINALD ENOCK, F.R.G.S. With an Introduction by MARTIN HUME, a Map and 64 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Fifth Impression. " The book is most comprehensive ; the history, poli- tics, topography, industries, resources and possibilities being most ably discussed." The Financial News. ARGENTINA. By W. A. HIRST. With an Introduction by MARTIN HUME, a Map and 64 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Fifth Impression. " The best and most comprehensive of recent works on the greatest and most progressive of the Re- publics of South America." Manchester Guardian. GUIANA. British, French and Dutch. By JAMES RODWAY. With a Map and 32 Illusts. Cloth, i5/-net. " Mr. Rodway's work is a storehouse of information, historical, economical and sociological." The Times. T. FISHER UNWIN LD., i ADELPHI TERRACE, LONDON, W.C a THE SOUTH AMERICAN SERIES BRAZIL. By PIERRE DENIS. Translated, and with an Historical Chapter by BERNARD MIALL. With a Supplementary Chapter by DAWSON A. VINDIN, a Map and 36 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Third Impression. " Altogether the book is full of information, which shows the author to have made a most careful study of the country." Westminster Gazette. URUGUAY. By W. H. KOEBEL. With a Map and 55 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Third Impression. " Mr. Koebel has given us an expert's diagnosis of the present condition of Uruguay. Glossing over nothing, exaggerating nothing, he has prepared a document of the deepest interest." Evening Standard. COLOMBIA. By PHANOR JAMES EDER, A.B., LL.B. With 2 Maps and 40 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Fourth Impression. " Mr. Eder's valuable work should do much to encourage investment, travel and trade in one of the least-known and most promising of the countries of the New World." Manchester Guardian. ECUADOR. By C. REGINALD ENOCK, F.R.G.S. With 2 Maps and 37 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Second Impression. " Mr. Enock's very thorough and exhaustive volume should help British investors to take their part in pro- moting its development. He has studied and described the country in all its aspects." Manchester Guardian. T. FISHER UNWIN LD., i ADELPHI TERRACE, LONDON, W.C. 2 THE SOUTH AMERICAN SERIES VENEZUELA. By LEONARD V. DALTON, F.G.S., F.R.G.S. With a Map and 45 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Third Impression. ' An exhaustive and valuable survey of its geography, geology, history, botany, zoology and anthropology, and of its commercial possibilities in the near future." Manchester Guardian. LATIN AMERICA: Its Rise and Progress. By F. GARCIA-CALDERON. With a Preface by RAYMOND POINCARE*, President of the French Republic. With a Map and 34 Illustrations. Cloth, I5/- net. [Fifth Impression. President Poincare in a striking preface to this book, says : " Here is a book that should be read and digested by every one inter- ested in the future of the Latin genius." BOLIVIA. By PAUL WALLE. With 4 Maps and 59 Illustrations. Cloth, ij/- net. Bolivia is a veritable El Dorado, requiring only capital and enterprise to become one of the wealthiest States of America. This volume is the result of a careful investigation made on behalf of the French Ministry of Commerce. PARAGUAY. ByW. H.KOEBEL. With a Map and 32 Illustrations. Cloth, 1 5/- net. [Second Impression. " Gives a great deal of serious and useful information about the possibilities of the country for the emi- grant, the investor and the tourist, concurrently with a vivid and literary account of its history." Economist. T. FISHER UNWIN LD., i ADELPHI TERRACE, LONDON, W.C. * THE SOUTH AMERICAN SERIES CENTRAL AMERICA : Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama and Salvador. By W. H. KOEBEL. With a Map and 25 Illus. [Second Imp. " We strongly recommend this volume, not only to merchants looking ahead for new openings for trade, but also to all who wish for an accurate and interesting account of an almost unknown world." Saturday Rev. OTHER BOOKS ON SOUTH AMERICA SPANISH AMERICA : Its Romance, Reality and Future. By C. R. ENOCK, Author of " The Andes and the Amazon," " Peru," " Mexico," " Ecuador." Illustrated and with a Map. 2 vols. Cl., 3