w^m^mmmmi.mi ^ ■ -. ■ ■ ^sy,y: \ «c m i>oi GIFT or ?•' J w ", I*. • ^ ■•-1?> ■ '•'-'■'.i/s ')-' NOVEMBER 7. 1919 CHAMBER OF COMMEI^CE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WASHINGTON, D C. ^m^^\ SPECIAL BULLETIN Relation of Weather and Business, in Regard to Temperature r The Problem Involved ^^^' In the Committee on Statistics' Report of February 24th, 1919, on "Rela- tion of Weather and Business in Regard to Rainfall," there are set forth briefly the extreme difficulties attending any intelligent analysis and consequent conclusion in forecasting temperatures because of the extraordinary complexities of the prob- lem. There are definite records of rainfall by days, months and years at many stations in the country. It is true that these are records of local precipitation, and consequently have bearing principally upon a study of the precipitation for a certain prescribed section or region. On the other hand, both study and experi- ence indicate that, save in mountainous regions, the precipitation at such stations is but part of and in common with the amount of rainfall over a generally exten- sive territorj'. Moreover, specifically local precipitation, generally in the shape of summer thunder-storms, has in the course of years a tendency to equalize it- self bj' a fairly general average over a large extent of country.^ It is true, strictly speaking, and especially for business purposes, that there is really no such thing as an "average" or a "normal" rainfall. At a station, Saint Louis, for example, the precipitation varies in the course of years from 25 to 68 inches annually. However, as shown in the Committee's report of February 24, 1919, it is possible from the study of these records of annual rainfall to make an intelligent and fairly approximate forecast as to rainfall for the ensuing twelve month?. But the initial and fundamental fact of temperature is that there is nothi'ii' i^^f^nifp about it. It changes from hour to hour and from day to day. in nay finieavor to analyze the drift and tendency of the weather there must be a record extending over a period of at least thirty-five years in order to insure a iong period to demonstrate the working of all the factors that enter ir .er. It is obvious that any analysis of daily temperatures running o' ig a period is so intricate and complicated as to render hopeless any de- p»- conclusions. Cold and Warm Seasons The so-called average, or what are known as "mean," temperatures are worse than worthless for all business purposes, as they are thoroughly misleading. Years in which there are the most violent differences in extremes of temperatures rhow mean temperatures within a few degrees of each other. The real problem, therefore, is to define what is meant by a cold season or a warm season. For busi- ness purposes, this dcfiniiion relates to extremes of temperatures and their dura- tion. As will be shown later, the sale of certain seasonable articles depends largely upon what is commonly called a cold spell or a hot .spell. In the Central West the demand for ice skates, for instance, hangs principally upon low tera- peratu'--' "•'>"• »"ne between November Ist and December 25th. These low tem- perati • only a few days, but within that period they are very effective in cau.finK ni "»'<• "f skates, even though the remainder of the two months may be only moderately cold. For the purpose of this report, therefore, there have been chosen the exlreme temperatures of both heat and cold as recorded at Saint Louis by month.s from 1R70 ♦o 191S, inrluf^ivp. fn order to have some basis of reckoninir. those winters wh( below zero are regarded as "cold," wis summers record ir ; h) degrees are classed as "hot." The problem then elf as to whether temperature records in the past show th" "'•""• ''■'"' together, in their extremes, as was found in the precipi- t-'' iation of wet years with each other, and of dry years Willi i.'ai'ii fiiMvi. S.tory.-of the Weather Records «8 Charts C, D, ana "E *shbW* the movements of the "Highs" and "Lows," which are the immediate cause of changes in temperature as they are likewise the cause of rainfall and of dry weather. The eas ern portion of low barometric pressure areas in the United States are accompanied in general by warm weather, while the high pressure areas bring cooler conditions because of the influx of masses of cool, dry air. The severe blizzards in the Northwest and West are generally preceded by an area of low pressure, usually with precipitation, followed by a pro- nounced drop in temperature with high winds and clearing weather. In the immediate neighborhood of Saint Louis, where the records which form charts B and F are taken, hot summers are usually the result of Lows passing to the north of Saint Louis and causing an nflow of hot dry air from the South and Southeast. This meteorological phenomenon occurs from July to September, most frequently in August, and its duration and severity depend upon the persistence of successive northwestern Lows in connection with the banking up of an apparently immovable High in the southeastern portion of the country, from New Orleans to Savannah. This High furnishes a continuous flow of superheated dry air flowing steadily north and northwestwardly and parching all vegetation in the country which it traverses. It was this combination of the northwestern Lows with the southeastern Highs in the summers of 1881, 1894, 1901, 1914, and 1918 which caused the droughts and hot winds which destroyed hundred of millions worth of growing crops in the Central West and Southwest. In September when this phencnienon occurs it may last from one to three weeks until a West India hurricane coming in apparently from tha Gulf of Mexico, or a pronounced High in the Northwest, breaks up the southeastern High and allows the resumption of the usual procession of Highs and Lows from west to east. Temperature and Rainfall The study of charts B and F seems to establish very definitely the relation of maximum temperatures in summer with deficient rainfall. In other words, a hot month is a dry month. The few variations from this seem to be only the natural and inevitable exceptions to every rule. Chart B also indicates that sum- mer months of high maximum temperatures are also months of high mean tem- peratures. In other words, a summer with maximum temperatures, — that is, above 100 degrees, is generally a hot summer, and the very hot days are a part of that particular summer and not mere isolated exceptions to otherwise pleasant weather. Careful study of chart B brings out very clearly the fact that the same me- teorological causes which produce extremes of heat and cold in any one season,— that is, winter or summer — also cause their persistence and their recurrence in that same season. This is vital in connection with the effect of extreme weather upon business, as not being merely a chance occurrence for a few days of abnormal temperatures, but something to be reckoned with as a distinct weather factor in that particular season. There does not seem to be any relation between a hot summer being followed by a cold winter, but in the main, cold winters seem to be succeeded by cool sum- mers. The fiocking together of hot summers appears to be confined to two of them at most. These are likely to be succeeded by a flock of from three to four sum- mers of more moderate temperatures. In other words, it is fairly safe to reckon on a very hot summer being succeeded in the main by one of more moderate tem- peratures. On the other hand, the winters, after the fashion of the animals in Noah's Ark, seem to be associated after their kind. There are groups of cold winters, often three or four together, succeeded by more moderate ones, though not so numerously associated. There does not seem to be any connection between tem- perature and precipitation in winter. A very cold winter may be either a wet or a dry one. We have then sufficient data to form the basis, of a v?(u:Wnff. tjieary in re- gard to the relations of business and temperature. Asin^thfecasB'tiP, Rainfall and business it is not, and cannot be, of absolute exactneiss, biit it has been on trial for some years, and has been found dependable and reliable about 80 per cent of the time. Practical Application It must be remembered, however, in the sale of seasonable goods by manu- facturers and distributers, that other factors than the weather enter largely into consideration. In clothing, for instance, fashion cuts a large figure. In another line, refrigerators or ice chests, there are several compelling causes. They in- crease in sales from year to year, as population increases, because they are both sanitary and economical; also because ice is plentiful and comparatively cheap on account of its being made artificially to so great an extent. Then it is much the fashion at present to give them as wedding presents. Moreover, all seasonable goods of any moment and importance are sold by manufacturers and distributers largely on "futures," — that is, much in advance of the seasr>r in which the con- sumer uses them, and without any regard to what the weather may be in that season. Refrigerators, for Instance, are larnrely bought by retailers from the whole- sale di.stributers early in March and April for resale to the consumers in June, July and August. By chance, the summer turns out to be wet and cold. Very few con- sumers buy any refrigerators that season. They are consequently carried over by the retailers into another summer which turns out to be hot and dry and the en- tire stock of refrigerators is easily disposed of. Meanwhile, however, the retailers bought none from the wholesaler because they carried over so many from the pre- vious sea.<»on. So. unless the manufacturer and the distributer keep posted on such matters, their sales are directly at variance with the weather conditions, being very good in an unfavorable season and very small in a most favorable one. This is on^of the many instances where mere .statistics may be mi.ileading unless all the iMIerlying facts which accompany and produce these statistics are thoroughly known and understood. It is in problems of this nature that those professional statisticians who know only figures go so completely astray and consequently draw most misleading conclusions. Giving due regard to such matters, it will be found, however, that in season- able goods, in the last analysis, the weather is still the dominant factor as regards Bales. In the application of this principle, the item of electric fans readily illustrates the theory. The records for 1918 indicated that there were three months,— June, July and Augu.st. — in which maximum temperatures of 100 degrees and over were reached. A further study of the chart also indicated the likelihood that these tem- peratures would probably not be repeated in 1919 nor yet in 1920. So that to the extent that hot weather affected the sale of these goods, this factor would be less pronouncpd than in 1918. The same reasoning applies to the distributer in ordering com knives for 1919. as he would feel very sure that no such withering of the corn crop as oc- Cttired in .Tuly and Annist would be repeated in 1919, and to that extent his sales of ttMM jroods would not be so large. This conclusion naturally follows from the showine of the chart that a summer of extremely high temperatures is rarely fol- lowed hv a likf soason. I ikfwjsp, fhp fioaler who in the spring of 1918 gave his order for ice skates, ire rreoper?*. and sleds, could draw the safe conclusion (as was done in actual prnrtire) that the fmir precedinsr winters where temperatures below zero were successively recorded pointed the wav to a milder winter for 1918-19, with con- •eqncnt lets demand for the goods he was ordering. Judging, therefore, from the analogv of the past, indications seem to point to a winter (in Saint Louis) of less severity than 1917-18 though of lower tem- r»:n7 is peratures than 191.8-19, and ial summer of less extreme temperatures than in 1918. but on thft 'A'hole more reacly ak'n. This is based on the ascending and descend- ing curves of heat and cold shoNivn in the chart in successive years, and the fairly general regularity of this succession. If in the future, as in the past, time gives proof of the general correctness of this method, the buying and selling of seasonable goods, as affected by the weather, •hould be something more than a constantly recurring gamble with chance. Attest : ELLIOT H. GOODWIN, Secretary. Committee on Statistics and Standards, A. W. DOUGLAS, Chairman, St. Louis. Mo. SPURGEON BELL, Austin, Tex. A. ROSS HILL, Columbia, Mo. M. C. RORTY, New York City. L. D. H. WELD, Chicago, 111. N. I. STONE, Rochester, N. Y. M. S. WILDMAN, Stanford University, Cal. o o < 5 •c CO rs u u K V ^ ^ ■itii^«.tilJl.|s= o%|l|i lilt Cha Monthly Range of Temp i » u i S.I } u t i a t jHijai 3 u u 1 a t i u u 3 n t juiijsi jmmjsi imvjsi jkiijsi jkmjsk rijrioi riJAOs rijioD fiJios fajxob riJioB rijiioD rijios rijios pij ads 112 1907 ■ Kjai JUIIJ31I juujsir jhujsi jhujsv Jvujsi jkmjsi'uiijsb jhujsv juijsi ju'' AJAOB »AJ10I1 ?AJAOS PAJIOD FIJAOOIA * A » » 1 J A D » 1 J 4 D » A J A » » A J A I FA Prepared by the Committee oa Statistics of t B ture at St. Louis, Mo. 3 A 0» rAJlOB t A 3 A » lAJAO* tAJlOP FAJAOS^rxjlOB FAJAOS rAJAOB lAJAO B r lot IM 100 N Pi 8 M •0 M 71 6< M M 91 i»i* t>ii ifi» itit iti« i»ie i»i» i»i» '»!• t n a I * t 3aa3aa3aa3aa 3 a a 3 a a 3 a a 3 a a 3 a a 3 « ■ 3 a a 3 a a ',''«.'.»„». ',"»"/."o"b 'w^a^3'a' tA3A»», IA3A»» t A 3 A » » W A 3 A » t A 3 A t » f A 3 A t 9 fliiOBfiliOS t A 3 A a^^^W A i A \ r/'\l ChtaOm of Cn— tfc« of th* UnlUd State* Monthly and Annual Precipitation at St. Louis, Mo. 000»QrHN(0»*IOO^a>(7>OcHW(0«?IO<Oe~eOO»Qr^NM^10«t>-00<»Ot-tCltO«d>ir>«>^<00»OiHC>lWrf«Or-eOo>OiHN lalOlOoo<oooto>o<oot^t^^-^-^-^-^-c^t~^-ocococo<ooooo>(Qoo>o>a>01a>cncv;>oM^OOoooooooo■-lfHlHHlHr-ll-l■-l rHr-lrHi-4r^r-li-lrHiHr^rHi-li-HfHfHrHrHrHr-liHiHfHrHrHrHfH>HrHf-lr4r-4tHrHr-trHrHfHr-tr-<rHrV-4iHr-lfHrHM Jan rW1T>v1VrTTTvTV^^^ \ Feb /tr>/MY^/^/^H^^TTv^l l>^^ ! Mch L f^Wy>wrfKTrrTT.Arrvt^ Apr Vf VW V/ WtT'yW W^v^rrTTYf''' 'w May brflVLdTr^tTvfrUW^ Jun kAT]vtwArrfiTM.Wrr^^ v. Jul L Aug D Sep [ rhrTT/1W^Wv1Tr^^T^..4vyfht^^ ftinW 111\7MYlYwrMJVnwnwn7f?V^^ \ hrlWyh^-WWrJ \vhwnTrj^yr..^T/^KM\\ilvr[ 41. 4" 4" 4" 4" 4» 0- Oct Nov Dec L11Trrwr^r^/^wt^^ 4» fK/iyK^^rArr/rwMylWrrr^^ VrVlWr]Trv/N-KAT>^^ Vrrnvr-T^-.rTTN 4" N Annual ^ /NThhyn . IM V rK, Prep ar ed kjr tka of tb« Chamber of Commerce of the United States 12 Reports Submitted by the Committee on Statistics and Standards Business Conditions in the United States, as of November 29, 1913. The Problem of the Food Supply, as to Breadstuffs and Kindred Articles. The Problem of the Meat Supply. Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 11, 1914. Condition of Fruit, as of May a, 1914. Crops and General Conditions, as of July 3, 1914. The Com Crop, as of August la, 1914. The Story of Cotton — Its History and National and International Importance. General Crop and Business Conditions, as reported December la, 1914. Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 10, 1915. Cotton Acreage in 1915. Condition of Fruit, as of May i, 1915. General Crop and Business Conditions, as of July 17, 1915. The Texas Fever or Cattle Tick, September 34, 1915. The Relations of Climate and Business, December 3, 1915. General Crop and Business Conditions, as reported December 11, 1915. The Invasion of the Cotton Boll Weevil. Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 8, 1916. Condition of Fruit, as of May 6, 1916. The_ United States and Food Imports. Cotton Acreage in 1916. General Crop and Business Conditions, as of July 29, 1916. Reclamation of Swamp Lands and Conquest of the Malaria-Bearing Mosquito. The Story of Irrigation, being the Civilization of the Desert. Crops and General Conditions, as of December 2, 1916. Dry Farming, April 20, 1917. Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 28, 1917. Condition of Fruit, as of May 12, 1917. Economic Significance of the State University, July 30, 1917. Crop and General Business Conditions, as reported July 21, 1917. Crop and General Business Conditions, as reported December 8, 1917. The Economic Value of Negro Education, March 25, 1918. The Sheep and Wool Industry in the United States, March 26, 1918. Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 20, 1918. Condition of Fruit, as of May 35, 1918. Crops and General Conditions, as of August 10, 1918. Crops and General Conditions, as of December 14, 1918. Condition of Winter Wheat, as of December 14, 1918. Relations of Weather and Business in Regard to Rainfall, February 14, 1919. Condition of Winter Wheat as of April 19, 1919. Condition of Fruit, as of May 31, 1919. Crops and General Conditions, as of August i6, 1919. Relation of Weather and Business in Regard to Temperature, November 7, 1919. Gaylord Bro». Makers Syracuse, K. Y. MI ja 21. ID ;;.i I us- UNIVERSITY OF CAUFORNIA UBRARY ■^v^' I NIVEHSITY OP CALIFOBNIA LIBRARY BERKELEY THIS BOOK IS DU^N THE LAST DATE STAMPED BELOW wplration ^ loan plri^ ' application i. made before MAY 1 1925 OCT 15 1W0