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 NOVEMBER 7. 1919 
 
 CHAMBER OF COMMEI^CE 
 
 OF THE 
 
 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 
 WASHINGTON, D C. 
 
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 SPECIAL BULLETIN 
 
 Relation of Weather and Business, 
 in Regard to Temperature r 
 
 The Problem Involved 
 
 ^^^' 
 
 In the Committee on Statistics' Report of February 24th, 1919, on "Rela- 
 tion of Weather and Business in Regard to Rainfall," there are set forth briefly the 
 extreme difficulties attending any intelligent analysis and consequent conclusion 
 in forecasting temperatures because of the extraordinary complexities of the prob- 
 lem. There are definite records of rainfall by days, months and years at many 
 stations in the country. It is true that these are records of local precipitation, 
 and consequently have bearing principally upon a study of the precipitation for a 
 certain prescribed section or region. On the other hand, both study and experi- 
 ence indicate that, save in mountainous regions, the precipitation at such stations 
 is but part of and in common with the amount of rainfall over a generally exten- 
 sive territorj'. Moreover, specifically local precipitation, generally in the shape 
 of summer thunder-storms, has in the course of years a tendency to equalize it- 
 self bj' a fairly general average over a large extent of country.^ 
 
 It is true, strictly speaking, and especially for business purposes, that there 
 is really no such thing as an "average" or a "normal" rainfall. At a station, Saint 
 Louis, for example, the precipitation varies in the course of years from 25 to 68 
 inches annually. However, as shown in the Committee's report of February 24, 
 1919, it is possible from the study of these records of annual rainfall to make an 
 intelligent and fairly approximate forecast as to rainfall for the ensuing twelve 
 month?. But the initial and fundamental fact of temperature is that there is 
 nothi'ii' i^^f^nifp about it. It changes from hour to hour and from day to day. 
 
 in nay finieavor to analyze the drift and tendency of the weather there must 
 be a record extending over a period of at least thirty-five years in order to insure 
 a iong period to demonstrate the working of all the factors that enter 
 
 ir .er. It is obvious that any analysis of daily temperatures running 
 
 o' ig a period is so intricate and complicated as to render hopeless any de- 
 
 p»- conclusions. 
 
 Cold and Warm Seasons 
 
 The so-called average, or what are known as "mean," temperatures are 
 worse than worthless for all business purposes, as they are thoroughly misleading. 
 Years in which there are the most violent differences in extremes of temperatures 
 rhow mean temperatures within a few degrees of each other. The real problem, 
 therefore, is to define what is meant by a cold season or a warm season. For busi- 
 ness purposes, this dcfiniiion relates to extremes of temperatures and their dura- 
 tion. As will be shown later, the sale of certain seasonable articles depends 
 largely upon what is commonly called a cold spell or a hot .spell. In the Central 
 West the demand for ice skates, for instance, hangs principally upon low tera- 
 peratu'--' "•'>"• »"ne between November Ist and December 25th. These low tem- 
 perati • only a few days, but within that period they are very effective in 
 
 cau.finK ni "»'<• "f skates, even though the remainder of the two months may be 
 only moderately cold. For the purpose of this report, therefore, there have been 
 chosen the exlreme temperatures of both heat and cold as recorded at Saint Louis 
 by month.s from 1R70 ♦o 191S, inrluf^ivp. fn order to have some basis of reckoninir. 
 those winters wh( below zero are regarded as "cold," wis 
 
 summers record ir ; h) degrees are classed as "hot." The 
 
 problem then elf as to whether temperature records in the past show 
 
 th" "'•""• ''■'"' together, in their extremes, as was found in the precipi- 
 
 t-'' iation of wet years with each other, and of dry years 
 
 Willi i.'ai'ii fiiMvi. 
 
S.tory.-of the Weather Records 
 
 
 «8 
 
 Charts C, D, ana "E *shbW* the movements of the "Highs" and "Lows," which 
 are the immediate cause of changes in temperature as they are likewise the cause 
 of rainfall and of dry weather. The eas ern portion of low barometric pressure 
 areas in the United States are accompanied in general by warm weather, while 
 the high pressure areas bring cooler conditions because of the influx of masses of 
 cool, dry air. The severe blizzards in the Northwest and West are generally 
 preceded by an area of low pressure, usually with precipitation, followed by a pro- 
 nounced drop in temperature with high winds and clearing weather. 
 
 In the immediate neighborhood of Saint Louis, where the records which form 
 charts B and F are taken, hot summers are usually the result of Lows passing to 
 the north of Saint Louis and causing an nflow of hot dry air from the South and 
 Southeast. This meteorological phenomenon occurs from July to September, most 
 frequently in August, and its duration and severity depend upon the persistence of 
 successive northwestern Lows in connection with the banking up of an apparently 
 immovable High in the southeastern portion of the country, from New Orleans to 
 Savannah. This High furnishes a continuous flow of superheated dry air flowing 
 steadily north and northwestwardly and parching all vegetation in the country 
 which it traverses. It was this combination of the northwestern Lows with the 
 southeastern Highs in the summers of 1881, 1894, 1901, 1914, and 1918 which 
 caused the droughts and hot winds which destroyed hundred of millions worth of 
 growing crops in the Central West and Southwest. In September when this 
 phencnienon occurs it may last from one to three weeks until a West India 
 hurricane coming in apparently from tha Gulf of Mexico, or a pronounced High 
 in the Northwest, breaks up the southeastern High and allows the resumption of 
 the usual procession of Highs and Lows from west to east. 
 
 Temperature and Rainfall 
 
 The study of charts B and F seems to establish very definitely the relation 
 of maximum temperatures in summer with deficient rainfall. In other words, a 
 hot month is a dry month. The few variations from this seem to be only the 
 natural and inevitable exceptions to every rule. Chart B also indicates that sum- 
 mer months of high maximum temperatures are also months of high mean tem- 
 peratures. In other words, a summer with maximum temperatures, — that is, above 
 100 degrees, is generally a hot summer, and the very hot days are a part of that 
 particular summer and not mere isolated exceptions to otherwise pleasant weather. 
 
 Careful study of chart B brings out very clearly the fact that the same me- 
 teorological causes which produce extremes of heat and cold in any one season,— 
 that is, winter or summer — also cause their persistence and their recurrence in 
 that same season. This is vital in connection with the effect of extreme weather 
 upon business, as not being merely a chance occurrence for a few days of abnormal 
 temperatures, but something to be reckoned with as a distinct weather factor in 
 that particular season. 
 
 There does not seem to be any relation between a hot summer being followed 
 by a cold winter, but in the main, cold winters seem to be succeeded by cool sum- 
 mers. 
 
 The fiocking together of hot summers appears to be confined to two of them 
 at most. These are likely to be succeeded by a flock of from three to four sum- 
 mers of more moderate temperatures. In other words, it is fairly safe to reckon 
 on a very hot summer being succeeded in the main by one of more moderate tem- 
 peratures. 
 
 On the other hand, the winters, after the fashion of the animals in Noah's 
 Ark, seem to be associated after their kind. There are groups of cold winters, 
 often three or four together, succeeded by more moderate ones, though not so 
 numerously associated. There does not seem to be any connection between tem- 
 perature and precipitation in winter. A very cold winter may be either a wet or a 
 dry one. 
 
We have then sufficient data to form the basis, of a v?(u:Wnff. tjieary in re- 
 gard to the relations of business and temperature. Asin^thfecasB'tiP, Rainfall and 
 business it is not, and cannot be, of absolute exactneiss, biit it has been on trial for 
 some years, and has been found dependable and reliable about 80 per cent of the 
 time. 
 
 Practical Application 
 
 It must be remembered, however, in the sale of seasonable goods by manu- 
 facturers and distributers, that other factors than the weather enter largely into 
 consideration. In clothing, for instance, fashion cuts a large figure. In another 
 line, refrigerators or ice chests, there are several compelling causes. They in- 
 crease in sales from year to year, as population increases, because they are both 
 sanitary and economical; also because ice is plentiful and comparatively cheap 
 on account of its being made artificially to so great an extent. Then it is much the 
 fashion at present to give them as wedding presents. Moreover, all seasonable 
 goods of any moment and importance are sold by manufacturers and distributers 
 largely on "futures," — that is, much in advance of the seasr>r in which the con- 
 sumer uses them, and without any regard to what the weather may be in that 
 season. 
 
 Refrigerators, for Instance, are larnrely bought by retailers from the whole- 
 sale di.stributers early in March and April for resale to the consumers in June, July 
 and August. By chance, the summer turns out to be wet and cold. Very few con- 
 sumers buy any refrigerators that season. They are consequently carried over by 
 the retailers into another summer which turns out to be hot and dry and the en- 
 tire stock of refrigerators is easily disposed of. Meanwhile, however, the retailers 
 bought none from the wholesaler because they carried over so many from the pre- 
 vious sea.<»on. So. unless the manufacturer and the distributer keep posted on such 
 matters, their sales are directly at variance with the weather conditions, being very 
 good in an unfavorable season and very small in a most favorable one. 
 
 This is on^of the many instances where mere .statistics may be mi.ileading 
 unless all the iMIerlying facts which accompany and produce these statistics are 
 thoroughly known and understood. It is in problems of this nature that those 
 professional statisticians who know only figures go so completely astray and 
 consequently draw most misleading conclusions. 
 
 Giving due regard to such matters, it will be found, however, that in season- 
 able goods, in the last analysis, the weather is still the dominant factor as regards 
 Bales. 
 
 In the application of this principle, the item of electric fans readily illustrates 
 the theory. The records for 1918 indicated that there were three months,— June, 
 July and Augu.st. — in which maximum temperatures of 100 degrees and over were 
 reached. A further study of the chart also indicated the likelihood that these tem- 
 peratures would probably not be repeated in 1919 nor yet in 1920. So that to the 
 extent that hot weather affected the sale of these goods, this factor would be less 
 pronouncpd than in 1918. 
 
 The same reasoning applies to the distributer in ordering com knives for 
 1919. as he would feel very sure that no such withering of the corn crop as oc- 
 Cttired in .Tuly and Annist would be repeated in 1919, and to that extent his sales of 
 ttMM jroods would not be so large. This conclusion naturally follows from the 
 showine of the chart that a summer of extremely high temperatures is rarely fol- 
 lowed hv a likf soason. 
 
 I ikfwjsp, fhp fioaler who in the spring of 1918 gave his order for ice skates, 
 ire rreoper?*. and sleds, could draw the safe conclusion (as was done in actual 
 prnrtire) that the fmir precedinsr winters where temperatures below zero were 
 successively recorded pointed the wav to a milder winter for 1918-19, with con- 
 •eqncnt lets demand for the goods he was ordering. 
 
 Judging, therefore, from the analogv of the past, indications seem to point 
 to a winter (in Saint Louis) of less severity than 1917-18 though of lower tem- 
 
 r»:n7 is 
 
peratures than 191.8-19, and ial summer of less extreme temperatures than in 1918. 
 but on thft 'A'hole more reacly ak'n. This is based on the ascending and descend- 
 ing curves of heat and cold shoNivn in the chart in successive years, and the fairly 
 general regularity of this succession. 
 
 If in the future, as in the past, time gives proof of the general correctness of 
 this method, the buying and selling of seasonable goods, as affected by the weather, 
 •hould be something more than a constantly recurring gamble with chance. 
 
 Attest : 
 
 ELLIOT H. GOODWIN, 
 
 Secretary. 
 
 Committee on Statistics and Standards, 
 
 A. W. DOUGLAS, Chairman, St. Louis. Mo. 
 
 SPURGEON BELL, Austin, Tex. 
 
 A. ROSS HILL, Columbia, Mo. 
 
 M. C. RORTY, New York City. 
 
 L. D. H. WELD, Chicago, 111. 
 
 N. I. STONE, Rochester, N. Y. 
 
 M. S. WILDMAN, Stanford University, Cal. 
 

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 of tb« Chamber of Commerce of the United States 
 
12 
 
 Reports Submitted by the Committee on Statistics and Standards 
 
 Business Conditions in the United States, as of November 29, 1913. 
 
 The Problem of the Food Supply, as to Breadstuffs and Kindred Articles. 
 
 The Problem of the Meat Supply. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 11, 1914. 
 
 Condition of Fruit, as of May a, 1914. 
 
 Crops and General Conditions, as of July 3, 1914. 
 
 The Com Crop, as of August la, 1914. 
 
 The Story of Cotton — Its History and National and International Importance. 
 
 General Crop and Business Conditions, as reported December la, 1914. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 10, 1915. 
 
 Cotton Acreage in 1915. 
 
 Condition of Fruit, as of May i, 1915. 
 
 General Crop and Business Conditions, as of July 17, 1915. 
 
 The Texas Fever or Cattle Tick, September 34, 1915. 
 
 The Relations of Climate and Business, December 3, 1915. 
 
 General Crop and Business Conditions, as reported December 11, 1915. 
 
 The Invasion of the Cotton Boll Weevil. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 8, 1916. 
 
 Condition of Fruit, as of May 6, 1916. 
 
 The_ United States and Food Imports. 
 
 Cotton Acreage in 1916. 
 
 General Crop and Business Conditions, as of July 29, 1916. 
 
 Reclamation of Swamp Lands and Conquest of the Malaria-Bearing Mosquito. 
 
 The Story of Irrigation, being the Civilization of the Desert. 
 
 Crops and General Conditions, as of December 2, 1916. 
 
 Dry Farming, April 20, 1917. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 28, 1917. 
 
 Condition of Fruit, as of May 12, 1917. 
 
 Economic Significance of the State University, July 30, 1917. 
 
 Crop and General Business Conditions, as reported July 21, 1917. 
 
 Crop and General Business Conditions, as reported December 8, 1917. 
 
 The Economic Value of Negro Education, March 25, 1918. 
 
 The Sheep and Wool Industry in the United States, March 26, 1918. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat, as of April 20, 1918. 
 
 Condition of Fruit, as of May 35, 1918. 
 
 Crops and General Conditions, as of August 10, 1918. 
 
 Crops and General Conditions, as of December 14, 1918. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat, as of December 14, 1918. 
 
 Relations of Weather and Business in Regard to Rainfall, February 14, 1919. 
 
 Condition of Winter Wheat as of April 19, 1919. 
 
 Condition of Fruit, as of May 31, 1919. 
 
 Crops and General Conditions, as of August i6, 1919. 
 
 Relation of Weather and Business in Regard to Temperature, November 7, 1919. 
 
Gaylord Bro». 
 Makers 
 
 Syracuse, K. Y. 
 MI ja 21. ID 
 
 
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 us- 
 
 UNIVERSITY OF CAUFORNIA UBRARY 
 
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 I NIVEHSITY OP CALIFOBNIA LIBRARY 
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 THIS BOOK IS DU^N THE LAST DATE 
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 MAY 1 1925 
 
 OCT 15 1W0