00 7—755. The Federal Census of Manufactures, 1900. A Paper read before the National Association of Manufacturers, at Boston, Mass., April 2S, 1900. Uy S. N. D. NORTH, Chief Statistician. I rejoice at the opportunity to address so large and intelligent a body of manufacturers on the subject of the approaching Federal census of manufactures. I bespeak the sympathy and cooperation of you all, in this tremendous statistical undertaking of the Gov- ernment. It ought not to be necessary to dwell, in such a company, upon the importance and utility of such a work. The decennial census of manufactures is the only approximately accurate' guide to the actual progress of our industrial development. It is just as essential to a true understanding of our position, as is an observa- tion of the sun to the mariner, after he has been sailing for many days under cloudy skies and against adverse winds. It is true we have many admirable compilations of trade statistics from commer- cial bodies and private sources; we have in the Government reports accurate details of the gn.wth of our export and import trade; we know the tonnage annually moved by our transportation lines; we know approximately the annual cotton crop and wool clip, and the domestic consumption of each fibre; we know the number of tons of coal, iron, copper, etc., annually mined; the number of bushels of corn, wheat, and oats harvested; and out of all this dat:i we can construct a fairly complete picture of our industrial stratus in one year as compared with a predecessor year or decade. But with all 31 these modern facilities for collecting the statistical data essential to the intelliLfent conduct of modern business, it remains the fact that there is no method of measuring the all 'round i)rogress and development of the thousand and one big and little industries, each dependent in greater or less degree ui)on all the otliers, which make up the vast and intricate conglomerate of our industrial entity, save that supplied by our tenth-year Federal census. With each recurring decade, we are again amazed at the extraor- dinary rate of growth this ten-year counting brings to liglit. We are now on the eve of the census which is to supply the figures which will round out the growth of the United States in the nine- teenth century, and be the starting point from which the progress of the twentieth century will be measured. From that point of view, the Census of 1900 is by all odds the most interesting and important yet taken. From another point of view, it is even more interesting and important, for it is to record a progress in indus- trialism, in comparisoii with ten years ago, greater and broader than any of us can yet intelligently conceive, a jjrogress that has never been approached, or approximated, by any ten-year advance in this country, or in any country, in any age. Prophecy is bad business for statisticians to indulge in; but 1 have discovered enough already, in the preliminary work of the census, to warrant the statement just made. It so happens that this Twelfth Census not only winds uj) the record of a century, but falls in a year of unprecedented business activity. The value of products will be swelled by constant over-time work in thou- sands of mills and factories and by the great advance in prices which has taken place, and which will represent, by a rough calcu- lation, an increase of 33 ])er cent in the value that would have been assigned to the identical volume of production, had the census been taken two years earlier. Thus conditions essentially abnor- mal have to be dealt with; and we are to have a new illustration of the danger and ditticulty of making comparisons between <-ensuses of industry taken ten years apart, under economic conditions widely different. There are other causes which lend unMsiiiil interest to the ap- proaching census of manufactures. We have witnessed, since the last census, a startling transformation in the methods of carrying on many of our great industries. The reorganization of the inanu- y 8 facturing business, through combination and consolidation, has created industrial conditions without precedent in history, which seem to set at naught some of tlie time-honored maxims of political economy, which must readjust many of our social relations, and which may largely influence and modify the future legislation of Congress and the States. In defiance of the frantic efforts of State legislatures to check their progress and embarrass their operations, these Goliath com- binations have possessed themselves of the great 8taj)le industries of the country to such an extent that they represent a capitaliza- tion — including the water — equal to the whole amount of capital reported to the Eleventh Census as employed in all our big and little industries in 1890. Just what their relations to the smaller industries are to be; just what is to be their effect upon wages, upon prices, upon competition, upon the general industrial conditions and prosperity of the masses, we do not know; yet this is the problem which, more than all others combined, interests the Ameri- can people to-day. The intelligent solution is impossible until the statistics of the Twelfth Census are available, as a basis upon which to formulate it. What proportion of the industrial activity of the country is now so controlled? What effect, if any, has it in reduc- ing the number of those occupied in productive industry, both as employers and employed — upon these questions turn the whole sociological and economic effects of the industrial combination; and no answer is possible until the census furnishes figures to start with. Some fear has been expressed lest the great industrial combina- tions shall refuse to respond to the questions of the Census Othce, and thus defeat the object of the work in an important particular. I do not share in that fear. Our preliminary inquiries have met with prompt and satisfactory responses from these corporations. It is not to be supposed, with the existing popular feeling against the big corporation— much of it unreasoning and unfounded — that their managers will increase it and inflame it by refusing to tlu- Census Office information which the law requires them to im])art. On the contrary, their returns will probably be the most exhaustive and com])lete that we receive. In one sense their creation has enormously complicated the difficulty of taking the census of man- ufactures. For it has brought under one central management ,v ivi35554{) plants located in many \' the expert bookkeepers employed by these icrv.W (nu^aiii/.atioiis and that we (•(iiitidciitly rely upon get- ting. Contemporaneous with the develojtment of the industrial combi- nation, and by many peo]>le attributed largely to the cheaper pro- diu'tion and improved l)usines8 nu'thods thus brought about, has been an c'n<)nn(»u8 development in tlic cxjiort of niainifactiirt'd aiti- tles produced in the United States. In 1860 the value of our manufactured exports was only ^4^J,- 000,000; ill 1890 it had grown to 1151,000,000, an increase nearly fourfold ; and in the fiscal year ending last July it was *340,000,000, an increase since the last Federal t-ensus of more than 100 per cent and of 741 per cent in the forty years since 18()0. It is a record without parallel in the history of nations.* This ten years' development in the uiaimfacturing exports of the United States has compelled the world's statisticians to rewrite their prognostications, and to recognize the swift advance of this country toward the front rank among the exporting nations. England annually exports, of similar manufactured articles, about %1, 000, 000, 000 in round numbers, (iermany about %550,000,000, and France alxiut &;37u, 000,000. If the relative advance in the value of manufactured exj)orts shall continue in the same ratio, as l)etweoii the four nations, the United States will pass France before another year, will ]tass Germany in ten years, an92,000 * 1870 1880 69 156 275 742 si' 121 897 1890 1899 47 230 125 cated. It is a commercial triumph predicted for us by the shrewdest observer of industrial conditions who has lately examined the situation with critical understanding. I refer to M. Emile Levasseur, the French economist, whose recently published volumes on the progress of American industrialism have attracted world-wide attention. "To produce in large quantities, quickly and cheaply," writes M. Levasseur in these volumes, "the United States is better equipped than any other land in the world." He gives many illustrations to contirm this statement. Another has recently come to my knowledge, more forcible in some ways than any narrated by M. Levasseur. L^pon the outbreak of the South African war, the British govei-nment had immediate need for a large number of horse blankets for the use of its (cavalry in the distant continent. It could find no manufacturei- in all fireat Britain who would undertake to execute an order for the delivery of a specified number of horse blankets, of a specified qualitv, within the time limit set by the government. It found an American mill, represented by an agent in London, which was willing to take the contract and to guarantee its fulfillment to the letter. The contract was awarded, and every week since there has been shipped from the United States to South Africa the specified number of blankets, not one of which has been rejectccl as inferior to the rigid requirements. We can hardly fail to be reininded by this episode that something over a (century ago, when the American colonies were engaged in their struggle for inde])endeiK'e from English rule, so desperate was their plight and so meager their own manufactur- ing facilities, that in order to clothe and blanket their armies they were compelled to smuggle through France woolen goods made by the nation with which they were at war. The Census can not throw much additional light upon the value or the character of our manufactured exports. The Treasury Bureau of Statistics furnishes that information with admirable detail and accuracy. But the census can exhibit to us, in con- nection with the Treasury statistics, the present relationship between actual production and export — the home consumptii^n and the foreign consumption, with respect to every important article of domestic manufacture. Heretofore this information has been of little consequence; for the export trade has hardly been a factor in calculating supply and demand. But as this foreign trade goes 6 on expanding; and iiicrcaHint;, it will come to have an intimate bearing ujtoii the actual output of our mills. The Census of I'.iUU will for the first time make an effort to measure it, in many industries, in direct comparison with the home consuniptie obtaineeciali/,e(|, like the textile manufactures, iron and steel, leather, paper, glass, pottery, lumliei-. ni.i(liiner\ , sliipi»ni Iding, the chem- ical industries, et<-., the Division of Manufactures has «-alled to its assistance a hody of expert special agents, fitted bv long studv to propeily and intelligently compile and present the statistiresent the most complete Ixidy of statistics yet compiled. If it fails at any ]»oint, it will he because it is a ]>hysical impossibility to finish its woi-k within the time allowed. ' To acconi]»lish the work within the time limit set, the Held work must be practically completed within 30 days, or 60 days at the most, from June 1st. We must have our material to work with, and this is where you manufacturers can help us. In the last analysis it lies wholly with you, whether this census is to be a correct and satisfactory exhibit of our industrial condition, and whether it is to be ready for use at the time set by Congress. It is in vour power to make or to mar it. The task of the Enumerator and the Special Agent of the Census Office is not a pleasant one at the best. Indeed, I do not know of anv, which I would not myself prefer. The book canvasser's lot is a happy one, compared to that of the census agent who enters the office of the manufacturer with the long and com]>licated schedule of inquiries required by Congress, and demands that the details of his business shall be spread out before him. The natural disposition of the manufacturer is to resent the inquisition. He looks upon these details as peculiaily his own private affair, with which the ]iublic and the Government have no right or concern. He is temj)ted to visit his irritation upon the agent, forgetting that the latter is merely carrying out instructions and doing his duty. Sometimes he flatly refuses the information, and points to the door. Sometimes he gives it grudgingly and imperfectly, greatly increasing the labor, the trouble, and the cost of securing it. Frequently he fears that these facts about his business, these business secrets of his, once spread out upon official paper, will become the property of the public, will pass into the hands of his business competitors, or will somehow be used to his injury and embarrassment in the tabulation of results. To each manufacturer who 'may have a disposition to so look at the matter, I desire to make three statements : 1. Do not be afraid that the confidential character of your return will not be respected. It never has happened yet, that any injury 10 has come to any one tlirou^l) tlie improper use of the facts obtained upon a census schedule. Tlie agents and clerks who handle them are all sworn to reveal thcni to no one. The erha])8 hundreds of miles on pur])(>se to obtain it; that we must reconcile every item in each of these half million schedules with every other item; that the whole of this gigantic work may be held up, suspended, while we wait for your single return; that Congress com]»els us to do all this in two years' time; and that this feat is impossible without your individual sympathy and your active cooperation. Instead of blocking and embarrassing our work, hel]) us to make this the best and the quickest Census ever taken. The Census Office, on the other hand, will do everything in its power to assist you. It will, wherever jiossiblc, mail to you the special schedules required for your special industries, in a»lv;tnc«' of the agent or enumerator, so as to allow you amjde time to fill them out. It will allow you to return them through tin* mails, so that they need never pass into the hands of a local representative of the Census Office, if you object to that. It will givV all possiV)le aid and assistance, through iorrespondcncc, in tiic preparation of s(died ides. ll will neglect not hing \\ ilhin ils |miuci- to facilitate and ren