University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF ALFALFA (Series on California crops and prices) by E. W # Braun 1931 (9 pages) (Replaced by California Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin £21) Contribution from the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Mimeographed Report No. 7 University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Extension Service Berkeley, California Preliminary summary of ALFALFA * (Series on California Crops and Prices) *An Experiment Station bulletin will soon be issued. This paper is a summary of that bulletin. Contribution from the G-iannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics E. W. Braun June 1931 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2014 https://archive.org/details/preliminarysumma07brau SUMMARY Alfalfa, the principal field crop of California used primarily as a feed for dairy cows, is grown in practically every agricultural section of the state. In California, unlike many other sections of the United States, alfalfa production and the dairy industry are mutually inter-dependent. In California alfalfa yields more leguminous roughage feed per acre than do other legume crops. As late as 1909 the combined tonnage of tame hay in California other than alfalfa exceeded the tonnage of alfalfa. Since that time the acreage of small grain cut for hay declined rapidly as the result of the great decline in the number of horses and mules on farms and in cities. The amount of small grain cut for hay is still shrinking. The tonnage of alfalfa has increased rather uniformly over a period of many years. The size of the crop exceeded 4,000,000 tons for the first time in 1927. An unusually large crop of 4,630,000 tons is reported for 1930. This is equivalent to approximately 80 per cent of the total tame hay production of the state. Between the two census periods 1919 and 1929 alfalfa tonnage increased more as a result of better yields per acre for the state as a whole than as a result of increased acreage. A significant change, however, in the distribution of the acre- age did occur. During the ten-year period the acreage devoted to alfalfa increased approximately 76,000 acres largely as a result of a phenomenal increase of 64,000 acres in Imperial County. San Joaquin and Sacramento valley counties reported 22,000 less but coast and northern counties reported 10,000 acres more. In Imperial County alfalfa has replaced cotton and is serving as a soil conditioning agent in rotation with commercial vegetable crops. Under these conditions the hay derived tends to be in the nature of a by-product of commercial vegetable production. Because dairy cows too are widely distributed throughout the state, most of the alfalfa is consumed in the county in which it is grown. Shipments of alfalfa iay are, therefore, small as compared with the size of the crop. Even though shipments are small as compared with the total volume of pro- iuction, they are nevertheless continuous throughout the year. The Los Angeles ailkshed area offers a market for a large volume of commercial shipments; 1930 re- ceipts being about 250,000 tons. This hay comes from outlying districts principally from the Imperial and Antelope valleys. Receipts are heaviest during the summer : aonths particularly June, July, and August; during the rest of the season they are relatively uniform. During the 1930-31 season shipments from Antelope Valley were slightly great- er than the shipments from Imperial Valley, the former being 105,000 tons and the latter 104,000 tons. The Riverside Alfalfa Association shipped 20,600 tons. Imperial falley ships heavily earlier in the season than does Antelope Valley. Price movements of alfalfa in California are often quite independent from srice movements in eastern hay markets. The price movement of alfalfa hay in Salifornia between 1910 and 1929 may be characterized by three levels, a low level "pre-war 1910-1914, a high level 1917-1920, and an intermediate level prevailing from 1921 to 1929, inclusive. Conditions current in 1930 and 1931 suggest that a el materially lower than that of 1921-1929 is being established. Alfalfa prices have been higher in the Los Angeles milkshed area than in iny other part of the state. This is due to the fact that it has been a deficit -2- area. Recent expansion of production south of the Tehachapi unaccompanied by an equally rapid development of the dairy industry is changing this condition. If these trends continue the price spread between Los Angeles and San Francisco in favor of Los Angeles will disappear. In the past San Francisco prices have aver- aged from $2.00 to $3.00 under Los Angeles. San Joaquin Valley prices have for many years averaged $6.00 under Los Angeles. The spread between Imperial Valley and Los Angeles has become much narrower than it was several years ago, thereby giving Imperial Valley a price advantage which it did not formerly possess. During 1921-1925 the difference was $5.00 per ton, whereas for the 1930-31 season the dif- ference was less than $4.00 per ton. The price of alfalfa hay in California is determined primarily by three factors: (l) the size of the crop, (2) the number of dairy cows, and (3) the price level of feed concentrates most commonly used in dairy rations. There are, of course, other factors that influence the price of alfalfa hay but they exert a relatively minor influence. A decrease in the size of the crop to the extent of 1.0 ton per cow tends to increase the price at Los Angeles $4,00 per ton on the average. With an equal increase in the size of the crop the opposite price influence takes place. Whereas an increase of $2.00 per ton in the price of feed concen- trates causes on the average an increase of $1.00 per ton in the price of hay. The relation is similar in the opposite direction when feed prices drop. The price level of feed concentrates is important and needs to be taken into account in con- nection with estimates as to probable future price levels of alfalfa hay. Alfalfa hay prices in California tend to have a distinct seasonal movement. During the season they tend to rise materially from August to January and fall materially from February to July. This is not necessarily always the case, the average however shows a distinct movement of such a nature. Some alfalfa hay and alfalfa meal are shipped to the Atlantic Coast where it comes into competition with hay and meal moving east from the Central States. The amount of hay shipped to the Atlantic Coast varies a great deal from season to season depending upon the price of hay in eastern hay markets as compared with prices on the Pacific Coast, and the ocean freight rate which also varies from season to season. In 1929 shipments of hay to the Atlantic Coast amounted to only 1,800 tons, whereas in 1930 they were 21,000 tons. As a result of an upward trend in meal prices during the past ten years in eastern markets as compared with Pacific Coast markets, meal shipments by water from California have increased steadily since 1924, reaching a total of 13,000 tons in 1930. There is little likelihood of a material increase in the number of dairy cows in California in the near future. Any material upward movement in the price of alfalfa hay in the near future is, therefore, not to be expected until prices of feed concentrates commonly used in dairy rations move upward or the size of the crop is materially reduced. -3- California Acreage, Yield per Acre and Production of Alfalfa 1919-1930 Production m i I i I t m '/A % i i '/// i ft '0, Pi f # I I % m 1 I H Mi Hi I I ML 5 - Yield per Acre 3 2 1 0 I I W/ W/. 1 1 I ///.< i / 1 I I ■ ^3 I i it 1 i i /Y/s PI i 1000 to © " 750 1 S 500 P< o * 250 Acreage 1 f rH 1 1 o CM o> rH 'TP/ I i CM rH '///. % Ml CM CM CT> rH //// I to CM 1 i i 0,2 f Wy, C\2 o> rH m. 2^2 CM i i cvj rH 1 # CO CM cn m S o rH Seasonal Shipments of Alfalfa Hay from Different Areas in the Southern Part of the State -5- Seasonal Receipts of Alfalfa Hay at Los Angeles and San Francisco -6- Price of No. 1 Dairy Baled Hay in the San Joaquin Valley and in the Los Angeles Milkshed in Dollars per Ton, 1910-1930 -8- Alfalfa Hay: Seasonal Price at Los Angeles and Seasonal Shipments from Riverside District -9- Price of Alfalfa Hay at Los Angeles and in the San Joaquin Valley and Estimated Price*, 1921-1930 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 Crop year averages beginning April 1 * Estimated price is based on the (l) size of crop, (2) number of dairy cows, (3) price of feed concentrates