THE PAPER MONEYS OF EUROPE THEIR MORAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE THE PAPER MONEYS OF EUROPE THEIR MORAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE BY FRANCIS W. HIRST BOSTON AND NEW YORK HOUGHTON MIFFLIN COMPANY Cfje fctbcmbe $ress Cam&tUige 1922 COPYRIGHT, IQ22, BY THE REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA ALL RIGHTS RESERVED JDrcsss CAMBRIDGE . MASSACHUSETTS PRINTED IN THE U.S.A. 58515 BARBARA WEINSTOCK LECTURES ON THE MORALS OF TRADE This series will contain essays by representative scholars and men of affairs dealing with the various phases of the moral law in its bearing on business life under the new economic order, first delivered at the University of California on the Weinstock founda- tion. THE PAPER MONEYS OF EUROPE THEIR MORAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE NO more severe reflection could be passed upon the moral and politi- cal capacity of the human species than this: Five thousand years after the in- vention of writing, three thousand after the invention of money, and (nearly) five hundred since the invention of printing, governments all over the world are em- ploying the third invention for the pur- pose of debasing the second ; thereby rob- bing millions of innocent individuals of 2 THE PAPER MONEYS their property on a scale so extensive that previous public confiscations of private property through the adulteration of money in ancient Rome, in Ireland under James the Second, in Prussia dur- ing the Seven Years' War, in the Amer- ican colonies and the United States, in Portugal, in Greece, in various republics of Central and South America, even the assignats of the French Revolution seem pigmy frauds in comparison with the present vast inundation of counterfeit paper money. In these times, when so much atten- tion is given to what I may call the pre- historic history of mankind, it would ill become me, a mere adventurer in anthro- pology, to discuss the origin of money or OF EUROPE 3 to attempt an explanation of the curious fact that the art of coining money was invented and perfected a thousand years before the art of printing. The coins struck by the best cities of ancient Greece are a model and a reproach to our mod- ern mints; and being for the most part of good silver, they fulfilled the two main functions of currency as a measure of value and a medium of exchange. Silver was well adapted for the pur- poses of currency by its ductility, dura- bility, divisibility, portability, and value. Its value depended on three things. In the first place, it was scarce; in the sec- ond, it was much in demand for the arts and manufactures; and in the third place, its intrinsic value was increased and sta- 4 THE PAPER MONEYS bilized by the needs and demands of the mints. Gold had similar qualifications, but it was too scarce and too precious until the nineteenth century, in the course of which (for reasons which I need not enter upon here), most of the great commer- cial nations adopted a gold standard. Copper possessed in a less degree the qualifications of gold and silver, but it was the first metal to be coined into money in ancient Rome. The Roman as or pondo weighed a Roman pound of good copper, therefore possessed the two prin- cipal attributes of good money, a definite weight and a definite fineness. It was divided like our troy pound into twelve ounces of good copper. OF EUROPE 5 The English Troyes or Troy pound was first used in the English mint in the time of Henry the Eighth. Edward the First's pound sterling was a Tower pound of silver of a definite fineness. Charle- magne's livre was a Troyes x pound of sil- ver of definite fineness. The old English Scotch pence or pennies contained orig- inally a real pennyweight of silver, one twentieth of an ounce and one two hun- dred and fortieth of a pound. The fa- mous pre-war English sovereign, now demonetized and misrepresented by the depreciated paper pound, was itself also 1 "The Fair of Troyes in Champaign was at that time frequented by all the nations of Europe, and the weights and measures of so famous a market were generally known and esteemed." (Adam Smith, Wealtb of Nations, Book I, chap, iv.) 6 THE PAPER MONEYS a weight; but the twenty shillings and two hundred and forty pence which ex- changed for it were token coins depend- ing for their value upon the gold sover- eign. From the time of Charlemagne among the French, and from that of William the Con- queror among the English [wrote Adam Smith in 1776], the proportion between the pound, the shilling and the penny, seems to have been uniformly the same as at present, though the value of each has been very differ- ent; for in every country of the world, I be- lieve, the avarice and injustice of princes and sovereign states, abusing the confidence of their subjects, have by degrees diminished the real quantity of metal which had been origi- nally contained in their coins. The Roman as, in the latter ages of the republic, was reduced to the twenty-fourth part of its original value, and, instead of weighing a pound, came to OF EUROPE 7 weigh only half an ounce. The English pound and penny contain at present about a third only; the Scots pound and penny about a thirty-sixth ; and the French pound and penny about a sixty-sixth part of their original value. By means of those operations, the princes and sovereign states which performed them were enabled, in appearance, to pay their debts and fulfil their engagements with a smaller quan- tity of silver than would otherwise have been requisite. It was indeed in appearance only; for their creditors were really defrauded of a part of what was due to them. All other debt- ors in the state were allowed the same privi- lege, and might pay with the same nominal sum of the new and debased coin whatever they had borrowed in the old. Such opera- tions, therefore, have always proved favour- able to the debtor, and ruinous to the cred- itor, and have sometimes produced a greater and more universal revolution in the for- tunes of private persons, than could have been occasioned by a very great public calamity.* 2 Wealth of Nations, Book I, chap. iv. 8 THE PAPER MONEYS John Stuart Mill follows his master in exposing and denouncing what he calls this " least covert of all forms of knavery which consists in calling a shilling a pound." But the opinions of Mill, the saint of rationalism, deserve and demand citation as they bring us directly to our subject. He writes : When gold and silver had become virtually a medium of exchange, by becoming the things for which peoplegenerally sold, and with which they generally bought, whatever they had to sell or buy; the contrivance of coining ob- viously suggested itself. By this process the metal was divided into convenient portions, of any degree of smallness, and bearing a rec- ognised proportion to one another; and the trouble was saved of weighing and assaying at every change of possessors, an inconvenience which on the occasion of small purchases would soon have become insupportable. OF EUROPE 9 Governments found it their interest to take the operation into their own hands, and to in- terdict all coining by private persons; indeed, their guarantee was often the only one which would have been relied on, a reliance however which very often it ill deserved ; profligate gov- ernments having until a very modern period seldom scrupled, for the sake of robbing their creditors, to confer on all other debtors a li- cence to rob theirs, by the shallow and im- pudent artifice of lowering the standard; that least covert of all modes of knavery, which con- sists in calling a shilling a pound, that a debt of a hundred pounds may be cancelled by the payment of a hundred shillings. It would have been as simple a plan, and would have an- swered just as well, to have enacted that "a hundred " should always be interpreted to mean five, which would have effected the same re- duction in all pecuniary contracts, and would not have been at all more shameless. Such strokes of policy have not wholly ceased to be recommended, but they have ceased to beprac- io THE PAPER MONEYS tised, except occasionally through the medium of paper money, in which case the character of the transaction, from the greater obscurity of the subject is a little less barefaced. 3 A few illustrations from the past may help us to a critical contemplation ot the present monetary conditions on the con- tinent of Europe, which constitute fraud and robbery on the most wholesale scale ever practised by governments (with the style and title of democracies !) upon the miserable victims, called citizens, and supposed to be endowed with the blessings of self-determination. Those who believe that war, if not a divine institution, is at least an inevitable feature of human society may plead in ex- 3 Mill, Political Economy Book III, chap. VH. OF EUROPE ii tenuation of this species of fraud that it is usually the last desperate resource of a government which has pledged all its taxes and credit for war or armaments. I remember reading in the Roman his- torian Sallust of a financial crisis which was ended by debts contracted in silver being paid off in copper argentum are solutum est. A few years before Adam Smith wrote his chapter on money, Frederick the Great, during the Seven Years' War, re- sorted to the Jew, Ephraim, who coined tin silver: Outside noble, inside slim, Outside Frederick, inside Ephraim. But Frederick, wiser and more honest than our European belligerents, made it 12 THE PAPER MONEYS his first care after the peace to restore an honest silver coinage. A lively example from English, or rather Irish, history is supplied by Ma- caulay and belongs to the year 1689. It is one of the incidents in James the Second's brief and luckless government of Ireland: It is remarkable that while the King [James II] was losing the confidence and good will of the Irish Commons by faintly defending against them, in one quarter, the institution of property, he was himself, in another quarter, attacking that institution with a violence, if pos- sible more reckless than theirs. He soon found that no money came into his Exchequer. The cause was sufficiently ob- vious. Trade was at an end. Floating capital had been withdrawn in great masses from the island. Of the fixed capital much had been de- stroyed, and the rest was lying idle. Thou- OF EUROPE 13 sands of those Protestants who were the most industrious and intelligent part of the popula- tion had emigrated to England. Thousands had taken refuge in the places which still held out for William and Mary. Of the Roman Catholic peasantry, who were in the vigor of life, the majority had enlisted in the army or had joined gangs of plunderers. The poverty of the treasury was the necessary effect of the poverty of the country : public prosperity could be restored only by the restoration of private prosperity ; and private prosperity could be re- stored only by years of peace and security. James was absurd enough to imagine that there was a more speedy and efficacious remedy. He could, he conceived, at once extricate himself from his financial difficulties by the simple process of calling a farthing a shilling. The right of coining was undoubtedly a flower of the prerogative; and, in his view, the right of coming included the right of debasing the coin. Pots, pans, knockers of doors, pieces of ordnance which had long been past use, were 14 THE PAPER MONEYS carried to the mint. In a short time lumps of base metal, nominally worth near a million sterling, intrinsically worth about asixtieth part of that sum, were in circulation. A royal edict declared these pieces to be legal tender in all cases whatsoever. A mortgage for a thousand pounds was cleared off by a bag of counters made out of old kettles. The creditors who complained to the Court of Chancery were told by Fitton to take their money and begone. But of all classes, the tradesmen of Dublin, who were generally Protestants, were the great- est losers. At first, of course, they raised their demands; but the magistrates of the city took on themselves to meet this heretical inclina- tion by putting forth a tariff regulating prices. Any man who belonged to the caste now dominant might walk into a shop, lay on the counter a bit of brass worth threepence, and carry off goods to the value of half a guinea. Legal remedies were out of the question. In- deed the sufferers thought themselves happy if, by the sacrifice of their stock in trade, they OF EUROPE 15 could redeem their limbs and their lives. There was not a baker's shop in the city round which twenty or thirty soldiers were not constantly prowling. Some persons who refused the base money were arrested by troopers and carried before the Provost Marshal, who cursed them, swore at them, locked them up in dark cells, and, by threatening to hang them at their own doors, soon overcame their resistance. Of all the plagues of that time none made a deeper or a more lasting impression on the minds of the Protestants of Dublin than the plague of brass money. To the recollection of the con- fusion and misery which had been produced by James' coin must be in part ascribed the strenuous opposition which, thirty-five years later, large classes firmly attached to the House of Hanover, offered to the government of George the First in the affair of Woods' Patent. 4 4 Macaulay, History of England, I, chap. XH. "The Affair of Woods' Patent" is celebrated in Swift's Drapier letters. 1 6 THE PAPER MONEYS But paper money offers far more ex- tensive facilities to knavery than a metallic currency. In his Essays on the Monetary History of the United States? Mr. Charles J. Bullock has described in sufficient de- tail the "carnival of fraud and corrup- tion" which attended the paper money coined or rather printed by most of the American colonies in the century preced- ing the American Revolution. Thus, about the middle of the eighteenth cen- tury, the paper money of Massachusetts fell to an eighth of its original value. People were driven to barter, and one writer observed that " the morals of the people depreciate with the currency." Parties were divided into debtors and s Macmillan, 1900. OF EUROPE 17 creditors, and a New England writer in 1749 noted: "The Debtor side has had the ascendant ever since anno 1 74 1 to the almost utter ruin of the country." 6 To this writer belongs the credit of discern- ing, at a time when even Benjamin Frank- lin was in error, that "the repeated large emissions of Paper Money " were respon- sible for its depreciation. "Not worth a Continental" is an ex- pression which brings us to the next chapter in American experience of in- convertible paper currencies. The so- called Continental money was the means by which the Continental Congress and the individual colonies too timid to tax endeavored to finance the Revolu- 6 Douglass. 1 8 THE PAPER MONEYS tionary War. By 1781, a paper dollar was worth less than two cents in specie, and soon afterward it became practi- cally worthless. 7 Robbery was legalized ; rogues flourished ; and their frauds were encouraged and protected by a govern- ment whose policy enabled debtors to pay their debts in valueless money. We hear of creditors running away from their debt- ors and being paid off" without mercy." Stories were told of creditors in Rhode Island leaping out of back windows to escape the attentions of their debtors. 8 In short, the law became an engine of op- pression and destroyed the fortunes of 7 Bullock, Monetary History of the United States, chap. v. 8 Ibid., chap. v. In 1780 Congress actually adopted a plan to redeem its paper issues at one fortieth of their pre- tended or nominal value. OF EUROPE 19 thousands who had put their confidence in it. In the words of Breck, a friendly critic, "... the old debts were paid when the paper money was more than seventy to one . . . widows, orphans and others were paid for money lent in specie with depreciated paper." The astonishing thing is that all this knavery was devised, or winked at, not only by low class politicians but by states- men of renown. The maxim salus populi suprema lex was relied upon not for the first or last time as a sufficient excuse for a crime far more pernicious than that of a private forger. But we have not yet real- ized, in our minds or in our penal codes, that public vices ought to be punished at least as vigorously as private crimes. 20 THE PAPER MONEYS That, even as a desperate last resort for financing war, a flood of paper money defeats its own object was con- clusively proved a few years later during the French Revolution. The French as- signats " have taken their place in history as the classical example of paper money made worthless by over-issue. After their final collapse in 1796, French finance reverted perforce to a metallic basis." So Mr. Hawtrey, a British Treasury official, who has given us recently a lu- cid and sufficiently detailed account of this extraordinary incident extraordi- nary but no longer singular, for the same course with the same results has been pursued during and since the war of 1914-1918 by Russia and Poland, and in OF EUROPE 21 a greater or less degree by most of the European belligerents. The issue of French assignats began in 1789 because the assembly would not vote adequate taxation, and Necker, the minister of finance, was unable to borrow enough to cover the deficit. In the two years from 1 789 to 1 79 1 , the public rev- enue was 470 millions, and the public expenditures, 1719 millions, of livres. The deficit was covered by assignats, or paper livres, bearing interest, in denom- inations varying from 1000 to 5 livres. Thus the assignats may be regarded as a floating debt currency. In November, 1791, the assignats were worth 5 2 per cent of their face value. In June, 1792, after the declaration of war on Austria, they 22 THE PAPER MONEYS rose to 57. After the victory of Valmy, in September, they rose to 72 and re- mained there till December. In January, 1793, the king was guillotined, and war was declared on England. By August, after violent fluctuations, the assignat had fallen to 15 per cent of its face value. Thereafter the laws enforcing the ac- ceptance of assignats were strengthened. It became an offence to sell coin, or to dif- ferentiate between coin and assignats in any transaction, or to refuse payment in assignats, or to negotiate assignats at a discount. By a decree of the 5th of September the death pen- alty itself was imposed. Here was a forced currency indeed. 9 For a few months an artificial im- 9 R. G. Hawtrey, Currency and Credit. Longmans Green & Co., London, 1919. OF EUROPE 23 provement was effected in the value of the assignat by these ferocious measures ; but in 1795, after the Terror, the system and the paper money collapsed. The gold and silver money, which had been hoarded, returned to circulation. In June, 1 795, the quotation of the assignat oscillated violently. On one day a louis of 24 livres would buy 450 paper livres, on another, icoo. 10 Paper notes which fluctuated so violently were useless as money. They could not serve either as a medium of exchange or as a measure of value. Country people expressed their contempt for the assignats by calling them r argent de Paris. A new currency of mandats was tried, 10 Hawtrcy, op. fit., chap. xv. 24 THE PAPER MONEYS into which assignats were made convert- ible. It was a complete failure. The assignats were wound up in 1 796, and in February, 1797, there was "a general demonetisation of paper money." " The holders got practically nothing. France returned to hard cash, as Mexico has done recently. In 1 9 1 8, v/hen Mr. Haw- trey wrote, he was able to describe the decline and full of the assignats as an 'almost unique* instance of "the cur- rency of a great nation fading away into nothing." The Russian paper rouble has performed the same feat since 1918. So has the Polish mark. And now (Decem- ber, 1921) the German paper mark is also 11 A turn which even a Polish Chancellor of the Ex- chequer might envy. OF EUROPE 25 fading into nothingness. 13 In Austria and in most of the new states of Europe, the inconvertible paper legal tender currency has lost almost the whole of its value, in comparison with the pre-war coin which it pretends to represent. The real difference between the pres- ent monetary conditions and the Amer- ican continentals, or the French assignats, is a difference not of kind, but of degree and extent. The causes and the conse- quences, the motives of those who work the mint, the ruin and demoralization of the victims, the effects upon public and private debts and credit are the same. But a whole continent populated by four 12 In the second week of November the mark fell to I 300 to the paper pound, recovering a day or two later (Wednes- day, November 9) to 980. 26 THE PAPER MONEYS hundred millions of people is concerned. The commercial and moral fabric of European civilization is tottering. Three years have passed since the war ended; but the currencies and exchanges of Europe are in a much worse condition than when peace was being negotiated. At the end of June, 1921, I walked from my office in the Strand down to Messrs. Hands & Co., who deal in for- eign money at Charing Cross. On the way I passed the shop of a tailor, who had placarded on his shop window the an- nouncement that he would give a hun- dred thousand roubles to every customer who bought a suit of clothes from him. He added that at the pre-war rate of ex- change the one hundred thousand roubles OF EUROPE 27 would be worth ten thousand pounds. He did not add that they were at that time worth only two shillings.' 3 On arriving at my destination, I asked to see speci- mens of the most debased currencies and eventually laid out ten shillings,' 4 or, to be exact, gs/iod. Here is the bill: Ten German marks cost me one shilling A hundred Austrian crowns cost me one and sixpence A hundred Polish marks cost me sixpence Twenty-five Russian (Czar) '5 roubles (1909) cost me sixpence Two Italian lire cost me eightpence Two Greek drachmas cost me eightpence Two Roumanian lei cost me sixpence Five Yugoslav dinars l6 cost me one shilling 'J A month or two later they were not worth a shilling. The Russian Soviet Government was offering two hundred thousand roubles for one pre-war silver rouble ! ' Two dollars. '5 Twenty -five Soviet roubles would have been dear at a farthing. 16 On this note is stamped 20 Kruna to indicate that five dinars exchanged for twenty Austrian crowns. a8 THE PAPER MONEYS Ten Czechoslovakia!! crowns cost me one shilling Five Bulgarian levas cost me sixpence Five Finnish marks cost me one shilling Five Esthonian marks cost me one shilling Five Latvian roubles cost me sixpence To show that my friend, the exchange dealer, made a decent profit out of this re- tail transaction, I quote some of his sell- ing rates for the day on which he based his charges : " Rates of Exchange Junt 29, 1921 Austrian paper crowrs 2400-2600 for i Finnish marks 220240 for i German marks 265-275 for i Polish marks 6000 (selling rate) for i Greek drachmas 62-65 fori Italian lire 76-77 fori Roumanian lei 230250 for i The last I heard from Vienna was that they had been varying from ten thousand to fifteen thousand to the paper pound ! The difference in the rates depended, OF EUROPE 29 of course, upon whether the customer was buying or selling the foreign money. If he was buying Austrian notes, he would get twenty-four hundred paper crowns for a pound. If he was selling them, he would receive a pound in exchange for twenty-six hundred paper crowns. All these paper notes are called after, and profess to represent, silver coins, which were themselves before the war, tokens, and passed current at more than their intrinsic value because of their re- lation to gold. Thus the pre-war parity of marks was about twenty to the gold pound; of Austrian crowns, about twenty-four; of francs, lire, etc., about twenty-five. On the day of my purchase, therefore, the ex- 30 THE PAPER MONEYS change value of the German mark was less than one thirteenth, of the Austrian crown less than one one hundredth, and of the Polish mark, one two hundredth, of its pre-war status. But this underestimates the depreciation; for the British pound is no longer a gold sovereign, and even gold has been depreciated. 17 The paper pound in June, 1921, was, I think, about the equivalent of twelve pre-war shillings in purchasing power. The gold dollar, which would only buy a little more than four shillings before the war, would buy five at the beginning of December, 1921. Although an inconvertible paper cur- '7 To-day, November 30, 1921, the paper pound is worth about four fifths of a gold pound. The purchasing power of gold say, the gold dollar is perhaps about two thirds of what it was before the war. OF EUROPE 31 rency has no intrinsic value, it can (in accordance with the quantity theory of money) be maintained at a fairly stable ratio to gold or commodities by an hon- est government if the total issue is fixed, or kept between reasonable maximum and minimum limits. The rise of prices since the war, in each country where re- liable statistics are available, has been in proportion to the expansion of the paper currency, allowance being made for the scarcity of commodities. Of course a de- cline in purchasing power follows an ex- pansion of circulation. The stability of the British paper pound since a limit was imposed illustrates the correctness of the quantity theory of money. Its increase in purchasing power (like that of the gold 32 THE PAPER MONEYS dollar) during the first half of 1921 is, of course, due to the fact that the supply of utilities had overtaken the demand. At first sight it seems difficult to under- stand how any government, however bad, can deliberately issue flood upon flood of inconvertible paper money, seeing that its printing operations are ruinous to both public and private credit. To obtain the same amount of revenue, each new issue, each new dose, has to be much larger than the preceding. In the course of twelve months, for example, the ex- change value of the Polish mark was divided by ten, that is, at the end of the period, ten times as much paper money had to be printed as at the beginning, to get the same revenue. Yet the Polish OF EUROPE 33 Government continued upon its course with the approval and support of the Polish Diet. The following quotation is from the Warsaw correspondent of the London Economist, who wrote on July 28, 1921 : The effects of the last collapse of the ex- changes are beginning to make themselves felt, and the Diet is already preparing fresh ground for new currency inflation. By its last vote the limit on the note circulation has been increased to 118 milliards, and on the ad- vances of the Polish National Bank to the Government to 150 milliards. The depreciation of the Polish mark in June was followed by a rise of prices, and this led immediately to a strike movement in almost all industries. In the Lodz district 40,000 workmen have gone on strike, de- manding a wage increase of 120 per cent! The manufacturers declare that they cannot 34 THE PAPER MONEYS raise wages by more than 20 per cent; that even undei^present conditions the Polish tex- tile industry is in a most difficult position on the foreign markets, especially in Roumania, the Baltic States, etc. Posnania was menaced by an agrarian strike, but a settlement has been reached. The strike of the municipal workers in Warsaw was short-lived. Every- where, however, wages have been increased by more than 50 per cent. This naturally will entail a new wave of rising prices, the Gov- ernment will be obliged to double the salaries of its officials, and the printing press will work again under a higher pressure. This is the vicious circle round which the country has been travelling for three years. Ex uno disce omnes. The monetary pol- icy of the Polish Government is merely a flagrant example of the recent monetary history of all the states of Europe north- east, southeast, east, of the Rhine and of OF EUROPE 35 the Alps. There is only one real remedy, the reestablishment of complete peace, disarmament, the abolition of conscrip- tion, the drastic reduction of bloated bureaucracies, and a wholesale lowering of tariffs, which will allow the miserable and half-starved populations to renew the arts of peace and the exchange of their agricultural products and manufactures. APPENDIX THE BRUSSELS CONFERENCE 1 IF all countries were included, a general and proportionate reduction of the military and naval establishments to one half of their pres- ent cost would set free a fund of probably at least $3,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 an- nually for the purchase of food and useful commodities, for the stabilization and partial restoration of debased paper currencies, for the payment of debt, the removal of public deficits, the revival of credit, and the reduc- tion of taxes. Thus the road to recovery lies plain before us. Will it be taken by the states- men to whose hands the peoples have in- trusted their lives and fortunes? DEFICITS THE RULE I n order to show that this view is in conform- ity with the conclusions of experts, and even 1 Taken by permission from an article by the author in the Saturday Evening Post of November 12, 1921. 38 APPENDIX of officials delegated for the purpose of exam- ining world finance by the governments them- selves, I turn to the conclusions unanimously arrived at by the Brussels conference a year ago, after eighty-six financial experts from thirty-nine countries had presented the ac- counts and balance sheets of their respective governments. In a general review of the sit- uation they point out that "the total external debt of the European belligerents, converted into dollars at par, amounts to about 155 mil- liard dollars, compared with about 17 milliard dollars in 1913." They say that the govern- ment expenditures of the European belliger- ents amount to between 20 and 40 per cent of the total incomes of the peoples. They say emphatically that the restoration of real peace, with disarmament, is " the first condition for the world's recovery." Four commissions were appointed. The first dealt with public finance, and its resolu- tions were adopted unanimously by the con- ference. The following extract from its reso- lutions deserves attention : APPENDIX 39 Thirty-nine nations have in turn placed before the International Financial Conference a statement of their financial position. The examination of these statements brings out the extreme gravity of the gen- eral situation of public finance throughout the world, and particularly in Europe. Their import may be summed up in the statement that three out of every four of the countries represented at this conference and eleven out of twelve of the European countries anticipate a budget deficit in the present year. Public opinion is largely responsible for this situation. The close connection between these budget deficits and the cost of living, which is causing such suffering and unrest throughout the world, is far from being grasped. Nearly every government is being pressed to incur fresh expenditure; largely on palliatives which aggravate the very evils against which they are directed. The first step is to bring public opinion in every country to realize the essential facts of the sit- uation and particularly the need for reestablishing public finances on a sound basis as a preliminary to the execution of those social reforms which the world demands. Public attention should be especially drawn to the fact that the reduction of prices and the restoration of prosperity is dependent on the increase of produc- tion, and that the continual excess of government expenditure over revenue represented by budget deficits is one of the most serious obstacles to such 40 APPENDIX increase of production, as it must sooner or later involve the following consequences : (a) A further inflation of credit and currency. (Z>) A further depreciation in the purchasing power of the domestic currency, and a still greater instability of the foreign exchanges. (f) A further rise in prices and in the cost of living. The country which accepts the policy of budget deficits is treading the slippery path which leads to general ruin; to escape from that path no sacrifice is too great. It is therefore imperative that every government should, as the first social and financial reform, on which all others depend : (