UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION \ BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY S. W. SHEAR In cooperation with H. F. GOULD, Department of Research California Development Association BULLETIN 429 June, 1927 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA 1927 CONTENTS PAGE Foreword 4 Conclusions and summary 5 Types of grapes 10 Acreage 13 Production 22 Production forecast for California 31 Annual shipments 36 California shipments by varieties and classes 44 California shipments of juice stock and table stock 49 Monthly variation in shipments 53 Weekly variation in shipments 62 Grape by-products 73 Principal markets for California grapes 78 Foreign trade in fresh grapes 79 Weekly variation in prices 81 Annual prices and purchasing power 85 Price outlook and problems of adjustment 95 The raisin industry : 98 Acknowledgments 110 Appendix of tables Ill LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. Bearing, non-bearing, and total number of grapevines in the United States, by chief states and sections — 1910, 1920, and 1925 12 2. Estimated California grape acreage, bearing, non-bearing, and total, by classes, counties, and districts, 1926 18 3. United States production of grapes, by chief states and sections, 1909 and 1917-1926 24 4. Estimated commercial production of grapes in California, by classes, 1899-1926 30 5. California estimated bearing and full-bearing grape acreage and yield per full-bearing acre by classes, 1919-1928 34 6. United States shipments of grapes, by chief states and sections, 1917- 1926 38 7. California shipments of grapes, by counties and districts, 1919-1926 40 8. Estimates of California grape shipments by varieties and classes, 1919— 1926 46 9. Estimates of California grape shipments by varieties and classes as table and juice stock, 1921, 1925, and 1926 54 10. California interstate grape shipments from north of Tehachapi, annual 1895-1926, monthly 1903-1926 60 11. Weekly grape shipments, United States and California by sections, 1920 and 1924-1926 64 12. Weekly interstate grape shipments from California north of Tehachapi, 1913-1917 and 1922-1926 68 TABLE PAGE 13. Estimated weekly carload shipments of California grapes by classes, 1925 and 1926 71 14. California's canned-grape pack, 1910-1926 74 15. Estimates of California's output of dried wine grapes and of all grape juice and syrup, 1919-1921 75 16. Imports of fresh grapes into the United States by chief countries of origin, in tons, average 1910-1914, annual 1920-1925 80 17. Weekly eastern delivered-auction prices of California grapes per lug by varieties, 1924-1926 84 18. Prices and purchasing power of California Malaga and Tokay grapes, 1910-1926 86 19. Estimated commercial output, price, and purchasing power of Chautau- qua-Erie grapes, 1900-1926 89 20. California production of raisins, by varieties, 1913-1925 101 21. Farm price and purchasing power of California raisins, by varieties, 1909-1926 105 22. Estimated California wine grape production, by uses, 1899-1918 Ill 23. Unloads of grapes, total from all states and from California by chief cities and groups, 1924-1926 112 24. Freight and refrigeration rates on grapes by rail from California to New York and to Chicago, 1909-1926 118 25. Prices and purchasing power of California grapes by varieties, 1917-1926. (Eastern delivered-auction and estimated f.o.b. shipping point.) 120 26. Farm price and purchasing power of chief farm products of California grape-producing sections, 1919-1926 122 27. United States production, exports, imports, and consumption of raisins; imports of currants, and consumption of raisins and currants, 1909- 1926 124 28. United States monthly shipments of grapes by chief sections of origin, seasons 1920-1926 125 FOREWORD This bulletin represents the results of a cooperative study by the Department of Research of the California Development Association and the Division of Agricultural Economics of the College of Agri- culture. Under an agreement, entered into in 1926, these two institu- tions have shared in equal measure the responsibility and expense of preparing the material included herein. As the result of this arrangement, a preliminary study projected and undertaken by Mr. W. L. Connolly of the California Development Association has been combined with subsequent investigations to the end that a much more comprehensive publication is made available than would other- wise have been possible at the present time. The primary object of this study has been to analyze the chief available statistical data relating to the industry as a basis for a partial and tentative answer to the question, "what is the economic situation of, and the outlook for, California's fresh-grape industry?" The study has been carried to the fullest extent warranted in a general survey, in view of the insistent demand for the information upon the part of agricultural agencies. The question of market distribution, important as it is, has barely been touched upon in the present study, chiefly because of the lack of sufficient data to serve as the basis for making safe conclusions. There is urgent need, however, for a special and intensive study of this phase of the grape industry, but at the present time the means are not available for making the extensive first-hand studies which this would involve. Absence of available data at this time has also made it necessary to omit from this publication any discussion of the cost of producing grapes. Those who wish quickly to get the gist of the study without reading it in detail will find brief Conclusions and a Summary given in the first few pages. In addition one may quickly visualize many of the chief facts by glancing at the figures and reading the brief story under each of these. Preparation of the bulletin has been greatly facilitated by the generous assistance of many individuals and organizations. A list of these is given in the Acknowledgments on page 110. Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of California, Davis Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/economicstatusof429shea ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY S. W. SHEAEi and H. F. GOULD2 CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY The spectacular expansion in California's shipments, acreage, and production of grapes in the last ten years has resulted in a serious decline in the farm price and purchasing power of the whole country \s output of fresh grapes and raisins since 1921 and 1922. Reliable esti- mates of California's increasing bearing acreage of wine and of table grapes indicate that with normal yields per acre the state production of these two classes of grapes will continue to expand during the next few years. Bearing raisin-grape acreage, on the other hand, is increas- ing little, if any, and hence the normal production of this class of grapes cannot be expected to increase appreciably, nor returns on raisins to fall to any considerable extent below those of recent years. Unless unexpected and important changes should alter the situation, there seems little likelihood that returns from fresh-grape production will appreciably improve for several years, and there is considerable likelihood that the price of wine-grape varieties will decline below the low level of 1926. With such an outlook, growers who cannot produce grapes at a cost as low as the returns prevailing in the last two years, or lower, should not consider expanding their output. In trying to visualize the market outlook for grapes in the next few years, it is necessary to consider the fact that the production of other fruits, many of which compete with grapes for a place in the consumer's diet, has been outstripping demand at remunerative prices in recent years. The national, and particularly California's, output of tree fruits is increasing so rapidly that an abnormally large number of producers of these fruits have recently suffered from unprofitably low returns for their fruit, and more will undoubtedly suffer in the next few years. 3 Analysis of available data points to the fact that large increases in the total fruit production of the state consistently result in low prices to growers. 1 Junior Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station. 2 Member of the staff of the Department of Eesearch, California Development Association. 3 In summarizing the outlook for the whole fruit industry of the United States, The Agricultural Outlook for 1927 emphasizes the fact that "the present trend of fruit production is upward and there is little on which to base hope for any- marked improvement in prices over those secured during recent years. " (U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ. Staff, The Agricultural Outlook for 1927. U. S. Dept. Agr. Misc. Cir. 101:4, 34. February, 1927.) 6 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Effective technical methods have been devised for processing, pre- serving, and storing many of California's better grape by-products. Up to the present time, however, the market demand for such products has been insufficient to dispose of any appreciable quantity of grapes, and the outlook for large-scale utilization in this manner seems unpromising. Although markets for fresh grapes can be increased somewhat by wider and more efficient distribution, it seems unlikely that any improvements in marketing which take place in the next few years will be sufficient to dispose of the forecasted normal production of California grapes at prices above those of the past two years. Any comprehensive plan for bringing substantial and immediate relief to the grape industry must recognize that there will in all probability be a normal over-supply of grapes in this country, at least during the peak weeks of the shipping seasons, in the next few years. Because of this fact, profitable marketing requires a plan that will avoid the harvesting and shipping of grapes of such quality or in such quantity as at any time to glut all markets and make prices generally too low to cover the cost of harvesting, transporting, and marketing. Since by-products and improvements in marketing alone fail to promise adequate relief to the fresh-grape industry, ways and means of reducing costs of production, and of decreasing the commercial output of the industry must be considered. Both of these are prob- lems of readjustment which growers must largely work out in the light of the particular economic conditions and choices which confront each as individuals. The question before each is how to make the best of the situation in which he finds himself. In many cases, without increasing the total acreage or production of grapes and without an increase in price, growers can increase their net returns by renting or buying at a fair figure neighboring acreage already in grapes. Others may find it possible to reduce costs, or increase yields out of proportion to costs, sufficiently to justify them in operating the same acreage of grapes as they have in the past. Some may find it profit- able actually to uproot a portion of their vines and replace them with other crops. Still others will probably find that their best alternative — temporarily, at least — is to diversify somewhat more than has been their practice in the past. In extreme cases some growers may find it necessary even to discontinue farming for themselves and hire out for wages, either on the ranch or in the city. The outstanding facts regarding the present status and recent developments in the grape industry which have led to the foregoing conclusions are summarized in the following four pages. BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 7 Among all the fruit shipments originating in the United States in the last few years, grapes have ranked second only to apples, aver- aging about 16 per cent of the country's total carlot movement of all fruits. During this same period California's grape shipments greatly exceeded those of any other California fruit or vegetable, averaging 27 per cent of the carloadings of all perishables in the state. The bulk of summer fruits in the United States moves before the heavy ship- ments of California grapes in September and October. The rapid expansion in California grape shipments since the World War has largely been responsible for the fact that the country 's total shipments of fresh grapes have doubled since 1920, increasing from about 37,000 carloads to 76,000. While California's shipments of grapes increased 125 per cent from 1920 to 1926, shipments orig- inating in all other states increased barely 25 per cent. The percent- age of the country's grape shipments from California rose from about 70 per cent in 1920 to an average of over 85 per cent in the last three years ; at the same time, approximately one-half of the grapes pro- duced in the state were dried for raisins. The rapid expansion of the grape industry in California as com- pared with the rest of the United States has been primarily the result of prohibition, which caused a sudden and great reduction in the utilization of wine grapes by California wineries and a gradual but tremendous increase in eastern consumption of fresh wine and raisin- grape varieties for juice purposes. Before 1915 practically none of the grapes shipped from the state were designed for wine making. By 1921, however, almost 20,000 carloads of juice stock were shipped, and in the last two years an average of nearly 50,000 carloads, or approximately 70 per cent of California's grape shipments have been juice stock. Of California's grape shipments in 1926, all of the wine-grape varieties, 16 per cent of the raisin-grape varieties, and about 13 per cent of the table-grape varieties were classified as juice stock. The chief California wine-grape varieties in their approximate order of importance as shipping grapes were Zinfandel, Alicante Bouschet, Carignane, Mission, Mataro, and Petite Sirah. The outstanding varieties of table grapes shipped were Malaga, Tokay, and Emperor ; and of raisin grapes, Muscat and Thompson Seedless (Sultanina). Most fresh Muscat shipments and about half of the shipments of Malagas were juice stock. From 1920 to 1926 California's shipments of table-grape varieties increased about 80 per cent, wine-grape varie- ties practically doubled, and raisin-grape varieties increased over seven times. Of the 64,000 carloads of grapes originating in Cali- 8 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION fornia in 1926, about 40 per cent were wine-grape varieties, 37 per cent table-grape varieties, and 23 per cent raisin-grape varieties. The diversion of nearly all the wine-grape production of the state and large quantities of raisin-grape production into the channel of fresh shipments, largely as juice stock, in the last few years is mainly responsible for the fact that California's shipments of grapes have increased much more rapidly than has her production or acreage. While the grape shipments of the state more than doubled from 1920 to 1926, acreage practically doubled, but production increased only a little more than 50 per cent. Central and northern California each produces and ships more grapes than are grown in the whole country outside of California. Even the production of the southern district, although less than 5 per cent of the state's total output of grapes, is somewhat greater than that of New York, the most important grape-producing state except California. The northern district of California, the second most important grape-producing section of the country, has long been the center of wine-grape production in the United States. Production of raisin and table grapes in California is confined largely to the central district, which includes most of the San Joaquin Valley. For many years this has been the most important grape-producing section in the United States, and its proportion of the state's total production has steadily and rapidly increased. In 1925 the central district accounted for approximately 70 per cent of the total grape production of the United States, about 95 per cent of the total raisin crop, and more than 60 per cent of the nation's carlot movement of fresh grapes. The increasing importance of California juice-stock shipments is in a large measure responsible for the enormous growth in the state 's grape shipments during the months of September and October. The major peak of California grape shipments usually occurs about the middle of September and a large secondary peak near the middle of October. On the average, during the years 1913-1917, only slightly over 800 carloads of grapes a week rolled from California in the six weeks from the middle of September to the latter part of October. The average weekly movement during the same six weeks in the years 1922-1926 was over 4,800, or somewhat more than six times that of 1913-1917. California's most serious competition with eastern (labrusca) grape shipments comes from the Great Lakes states, New York, Michi- gan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and usually occurs in a period of six weeks centering in October. The peak of United States shipments, BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 9 which normally occurs during this period, is caused by California's large but secondary peak, and by the heaviest movement of the season from the Great Lakes states. California can expect but little increase in the competitive shipments of grapes from this section, as the expan- sion of acreage between 1920 and 1925 was smaller than in any other important grape-producing area. The very rapid rate of expansion of the vinif era-grape industry of Arizona in recent years has appreciably increased the competition which shipments of early California grapes are meeting in eastern markets in June and July. About one-fourth as many carloads of grapes were shipped from Arizona as from Imperial County in 1926. Arizona shipped almost 70 carloads of early grapes in 1926 compared with about 10 in 1920. Indications are that Arizona's output will continue to expand, as the number of vines, which is now nearly half as great as in Imperial County, increased about seven times from 1920 to 1925, or slightly faster than in Imperial County. There is also rapidly increasing competition in late August and early September between California grape shipments and those from the Central West, particularly from the Ozark region in Arkansas and Missouri. These two states, which together shipped less than 50 cars of grapes in 1920, shipped about 1,900 carloads in 1926. The number of vines in the same period approximately doubled and, as many of the younger vines have not yet reached full bearing, further increases in the commercial output from these states may be expected. California's full-bearing acreage of all grapes, with the exception of raisin grapes, promises to continue upward until 1928 at least, and therefore normal production can likewise be expected to increase somewhat in proportion. It is evident that, with 75 per cent of the grape vines in the United States on California ranches and a prefer- ence on the part of most consumers for vinifera varieties, this state will continue to furnish most of the country's supply of grapes. Even the possible decrease in shipments of juice grapes that might take place in case of rulings adverse to such movement, would not deprive California of her dominant position in the shipping of fresh grapes. A study of the weekly variation in the prices of different varieties of grapes in 1924 and in 1926 discloses two general tendencies for nearly every variety : first, to be high in price early in the season ; and, second, to rise in the latter part of September or more usually in October. Wine grapes and Muscats show less of a tendency to bring high prices in the first weeks they come upon the market than do table grapes, and more of a tendency to rise above the average 10 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION in October, the month in which the demand for juice grapes for wine- making purposes is usually the greatest. The annual average prices of wine and of table-grape varieties in eastern markets have moved up and down together rather consistently. Prices of wine grapes, however, have averaged above those of table grapes in every year since 1917. Continuation of the rapid increase in shipments of wine-grape varieties will probably result in their price falling to about that of table-grape varieties within the next few years. The annual prices of fresh raisin grapes in eastern markets has consistently been much lower than those of wine and of table grapes and has shown no particular tendency to move closely with the prices of the latter two classes. The high prices and the high purchasing power of fresh grapes from 1919 through 1922, and of raisins from 1919 through 1921, were responsible for stimulating a tremendous and unwise increase in the grape acreage of the state, the effects of which have since been shown in increased output and a considerable decline in prices and purchas- ing power. From 1917 to 1921 the purchasing power of both table and wine-grape varieties rapidly doubled and actual prices, because of the great decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, rose even faster. Since 1921 their price and purchasing power has declined precipitously. Returns per ton on California table-grape varieties have been below pre-war purchasing power in the last two years and, if anywhere near full crops are produced, will probably remain near this low level for the next few years. With an outlook for a con- siderable increase in the normal production of wine-grape varieties for several years, it seems probable that the purchasing power of these grapes will fall below the level of 1926. TYPES OF GRAPES Vinifera or European Type Most Important. — There are three main types of grapes produced in the United States— the vinifera, labrusca, and rotundifolia (muscadine). The vinifera, or European type, of which many varieties are grown in California, is by far the most important commercially, not only in the United States, but in foreign countries as well. Grapes of the vinifera type produce prac- tically all of the world's wine; they are the only ones from which raisins and currants can be made ; and they possess better shipping qualities than do American varieties. California's output of grapes consists almost entirely of varieties of the vinifera species. In the United States the Mediterranean type BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 11 of climate with warm, dry, sunny summers essential to the successful production of the vinifera varieties, prevails over a large area only in California, to a more limited extent in Arizona, and in a few small sections in Texas. 4 Arizona, however, is the only state, aside from California, in which any considerable area is suited to the production of the vinifera species. A number of the larger river valleys and low mesas in Arizona below 2,500 feet elevation are specially suited to the production of very early Thompson Seedless (Sultanina) and Malagas. "Commercial grape growing in this area centers largely in the Salt River, Yuma, and Casa Grande valleys." 5 Of the land comprising the irrigation projects in these valleys, at least 100,000 acres is good grape soil. The heavy planting of grapes in Arizona during recent years is indicated by the large increase in vines of all ages from about 400 acres in 1920 to approximately 3,000 acres in 1925. 6 Eastern Labrusca Second in Importance. — The labrusca species of grapes, popularly known as the American or eastern grape, is second in commercial importance in the United States, and is grown in practically all sections of the country. Of the many varieties of this species of grapes with their thin slip-skins and their characteristic tang, perhaps the best known are the Concord, the Niagara, the Dela- ware, and the Catawba. All are primarily table grapes, with, however, a considerable utilization in making both fermented and, in particular, unfermented juice. Outside of California 7 and Arizona, these are the principal grapes grown on a commercial scale. The two chief sections producing eastern grapes in any considerable volume may, for con- venience, be designated as the Great Lakes section, comprising certain portions of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan; and the central western section, which embraces rather localized areas in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas. 4 For a brief discussion of grape growing in Texas, see Munson, W. B., Grape growing in Texas. Calif. Grape Grower, 4io : 4-5. October, 1923. A general dis- cussion of the prospects for growing vinifera grapes on reclaimed arid lands outside of California is given in Nougaret, E. L., Status of California grape in- dustry, June 30, 1921. Calif. Dept. Agr. Spec. Pub. 11: 35-38. 1921. s Tor a brief discussion of the outlook for vinifera grape production in Arizona, upon which statements in this paragraph are based, see Crider, F. T., Grapes in Arizona. California Grape Grower, 4" : 4. July 1, 1923. G Rough estimates of acreages based upon census data on number of vines of all ages, which were 118,000 in 1920 and 868,000 in 1925. 7 See Bonnet, L. O., Eastern Grapes in California (California Grape Grower, 5 1 : 14. January, 1924), concerning the adaptability of the labrusca type of grape to California conditions. The California Grape Grower, 6^: 3. May, 1925, reports that 18,000 Concord vines were recently planted at Paradise in Butte County. 12 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION m H H < '^ H ^ 03 4^ w o fc o CI OS o o r-i 0) H n • r-5 % -4 1—1 rtf W w o a -© >o s T-l c^ co 00 © ^ c^ -t< CO CM C33 oo lO lO © -3 © letOMONNNNTllOlNOOXONNTllH a M a 03 g> rH £°© o3 03 M a>© r 1 * « o CM © 1 0OOOO00OOOC50OOO00O oooooooooooooooooo 43 ^C 03 'ej |g O C a; o © U>MHrttDO>OOrtOO^OlWO>iflNKI* OooiocO'-H»-iO'H^HOooq^<0-«tOe»» n^ o 03 kh + 5 o T-l t- 1C T-( N H " »o Pm o CNI «3 S 8 «03<£>T-HCOO>»H-i«r^— it^oo«Door-iT-ir--_ t~- a» H M CO H © 9 ^3 O 42 l> ^ d a rH o © "o" T r>T oo" in in tjT mO!'*Ort»IN'*mNMHOOOO'ji to -* i-h co es t-i u TjNNinu)iaHN»)i(OOiHnN10p>ONOOO»*OONOONnM 4> •<*< 43 3 § £ <# M O) rt 0O1ONHNNC0IN rH rH rt rt 3 m © H 0>r-HC0t^00<00>C3t-~<-MT^©-^^HOi0C0t- © OO^OOCONOi-IOOOOWflOrtOOOOaiO coo©© ooinoitiiortTjiHHcoHfji co o b C-" H X N (O N H rt tH Z&S C-* es t-h -Q bO "* WtDr|lO0N«)N0OO0lN'itlMU5N«lrHN^ a LO 9>!D^n'i»lia9)NCS<0U5OTl*«JiN<* 3§ s c-^ CO-^OO-^ MMKJNtDOONM CMCMCOt- o o H 3 OOCnt— i— i©4tOCO'-H tH tH © bfl s (OHHffiU3MHP)OM*HfflXOOtDMH © o b co»o coe»co»-ii-i t-i ^* 43 LO CO -l tH ,_, »«T(lOffiM»(NMHNpiN©0'l a "5 ii is o ? t B 'S 8 3 CO s n ?: 1 t/2 in W w ! *» X T3T3>+;^ O OS's; L _, 5 S 13 -° tJ . j3 CI c 3 O 55 DQ £ w o 73 i 9 § f ■S -h i 3 c fl g <5 Ph m 03 u 03 . if P y > O^; » « c j3 ►> O eS « g oj 03 .Jlii O 3 03^3 DQ r/ ; S-D^i; ^ ."S.-g b£T3 '"1 s 0) 03 .J3 i-5 O 03 fc^ Q, 03 (h 5-iS 03 "'T3'*-' S J 43 S 03 PQg- _ 03-1 S^ - " ? U 9 o s *J oo 83 U 3-2 > 43 • . bfi > 03 +J CC -J cx3 03 >-i cS ^ rJ 83 Q +-? 03 Spq.s|«^ 2 « S £So **- c«a ^c^ 1 03 03 03 03 cS h B mi „, -p ~° « 8 l Q o^.2 flea " 03 03-3 S 03 83 Ti +iW : r1 -^ IS' a^a •EJ3- 43 a 1 Xi S3 S ^ OS-- 1 ^ 03-^ 03--; 03 «.2JS 3SJ-S >> cS CI -T3 ^ 03 O .24 .5 °° oj o^ 03AJ 4) 5 OJO . OJ^rS 03 .5 ej 03 03; 3 h-r. Ii OJ 03 BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 13 Slight Commercial Importance of Muscadine Grapes. — The rotundi- folia species of native American grape, popularly known as the Muscadine type, of which the Scuppernong is the oldest and best known variety, is of little commercial importance in the United States, and is scarcely ever grown in other countries. Recent developments in methods of using this type of grape have resulted, however, in a more widespread interest in its planting in the South Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, where there is already a considerable acreage, largely in the form of home vineyards. 8 ACREAGE Increase in United States and California Grape Acreage, 1920 to 1925. — The growth of the grape industry in the United States since the war is probably most accurately pictured by the increase in the number of grape vines between 1920 and 1925. According to the census, during this five-year period the number of vines of all ages in the whole country rose from 253 million to 382 million, an increase of approximately 50 per cent. Expansion was much more rapid in California than in the rest of the United States, California's increase being over 60 per cent compared with 29 per cent for all other states. 9 The number of vines reported for California in 1920 was about 175 million, compared with 281 million in 1925 ; and in all other states 79 million in 1920, as against 101 million in 1925. California's por- tion of all vines in the United States rose during this time from 69 per cent of the total to almost 75 per cent with a corresponding decline in the proportion of vines in other states. Outstanding Importance of Grape Production in Central Califor- nia. — For many years the central district of California has been the most important grape-producing section in the United States, and its proportion of the state's crop has shown a steady and rapid increase. According to our national census, about 34 per cent of the grape vines 8 Corbett, L. C, et al. Fruit and vegetable production. U. S. Department of Agriculture Yearbook, 1925:279. 1926. The portion of this article dealing with grape production in the United States, pp. 272-284, was written by George C. Husmann. It sketches very briefly the history of grape growing in this country, .showing on maps the geographical changes in production by decades from 1849 to 1919. 9 Census data (see table 1, page 12) and estimates of the California Crop Eeporting Service do not agree exactly on California's vineyard growth from 1920 to 1925. The increase in acreage as reported by the latter was approxi- mately 70 per cent during this period against an increase in number of vines of slightly over 60 per cent according to the United States Census of Agriculture for 1925. The acreage estimates of the California Crop Eeporting Service for Cali- fornia have been used in this bulletin except in a few unavoidable instances. 14 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY Key Mop of Co/itbmia Counties and Districts SISKIYOU | MODOC Northern District Central District r W ) RIVERSIDE Southern District N?k **,. I IMPERIAL Z«r (Jior/tston, S C. Fig. 2. — Tlie heavy solid line indicates boundaries of districts along county lines, and the heavy dotted lines boundaries of shipping districts. The boundaries of the shipping districts are those used by the Market News Service of the United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics and conform closely to the usual divi- sions along county lines, except that the Bureau includes San Joaquin County shipments from south of a line running through Stockton in the central district, whereas San Joaquin County as a whole is usually included in the northern dis- trict of California when the divisions are made along county lines. The Bureau also separates the Imperial district from the rest of the southern district. The Bureau's boundary line separating the central and southern districts is the approximate line dividing the state into north and south of Tehaohapi (a rugged mountain barrier separating the northern and southern part of the state except along the coast). A list of the counties in each of the districts according to county lines is given in table 2, page 18. • [Continued on page 16] 16 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION in the United States were in the central district in 1909. The per- centage had increased to 45 by 1920, and in 1925 one-half of all the country's vines were found in this district and nearly 70 per cent of California's total acreage. In 1926 the central district contained about one-third of the wine-grape acreage of the state, over 55 per cent of the table-grape acreage and over 90 per cent of the raisin-grape acreage. 10 Northern California Is Third in Vines but Second in Output. — The northern district of California, which has long been the chief center of the wine-grape industry of the United States, until recent years ranked second only to central California in grape production. During the decade from 1910 to 1920, however, both the output and the number of vines in this section declined appreciably, largely on account of low prices for wine, together with the growing unfavorable national attitude toward alcoholic beverages. As a result, the number of vines in the Great Lakes states has exceeded those in the northern district since some time before 1920. However, because of uniformly higher average yields per vine in northern California, both production and shipments of this district since 1918 have been consistently higher than of the Great Lakes section. !o See table 2, page 18, for estimates made by the California Cooperative Crop Eeporting Service and the map in figure 2 for the district boundaries used in this study. See also footnote 14, page 28, for a list of the chief varieties of grapes included in each of the three classes — wine, table, and raisin. The boundaries of the California shipping districts employed by the Bureau are described in the mimeographed Summary of California Grapes for 1924 (U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ., 1925), as follows: "1. (a) The northern California district extends northward from a line fol- lowing the north shore of the Golden Gate, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Straits, Suisun Bay, and then following the north shore of the San Joaquin Eiver to Stockton, including Stockton; thence along the line of the Southern Pacific Bail- way to Milton, but not including that line; thence eastwardly through the center of Calaveras County; thence along the western and northern boundary lines of Alpine County to the Nevada State line. "(b) Includes originations at Oakland pier and San Francisco Terminal. "2. The central district of California includes the territory extending south- ward from the line described in paragraph 1, except Oakland Pier and San Fran- cisco Terminal, to a southern boundary beginning at Santa Barbara along an imaginary line to Mojave and including that town; thence along an imaginary line to Mojave and including that town; thence along an imaginary line from Mojave to the western end of the Slate Eange, along that range of mountains to the southern boundary of Inyo County; thence along the southern boundary of that county to the Nevada state line. "3. The southern district of California extends southward from the line de- scribed in paragraph 2, taking in all the balance of the state with the exception of that portion of Imperial County south of an imaginary line running due east and west through Niland. "4. The Imperial district is that portion of Imperial County south of an imaginary line through Niland, and includes the town of Niland. ' ' BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 17 The number of vines in this district declined in actual numbers from about 75 million in 1910 to 49 million in 1920 and in relative importance the number declined from approximately 26 per cent of the national total in 1910 to about 19 per cent in 1920. The stimulus given to plantings by the high prices for wine grapes in eastern markets from 1919 to 1924 has been largely responsible for the in- crease in the number of vines in the northern district from 49 million in 1920 to over 65 million in 1925. Expansion of acreage in the rest of the state, and particularly in central California, however, was so great during this period that the percentage of the United States total number of vines in northern California declined from 19 per cent in 1920 to 17 per cent in 1925. Somewhat less than one-fourth of the vines in California were in this district in 1925. In 1926 nearly one-half of California's wine-grape acreage, one-third of the table- grape acreage, and less than 5 per cent of the raisin-grape acreage of the state was in the northern district. Great Lakes States Are Second in Vines but Third in Output. — Sometime between 1910 and 1920 the decreasing acreage of wine grapes in northern California led to this district losing its rank as sec- ond in number of vines and the Great Lakes states as a group taking second place. The increase in number of vines in these states since 1920 relative to the increase in northern California has been sufficient for them to maintain their position ahead of northern California in number of vines ever since 1920. The higher yield per vine in northern California, however, has enabled this district since 1909 to produce continuously a greater tonnage of grapes than his been produced in the four Great Lakes states. Shipments from the north- ern district of California also have been considerably larger in volume since 1918 than the movement from the Great Lakes states. In both 1909 and 1919, nearly one-fourth of the nation's grape vines were in the Great Lakes district, although the actual number declined about 5 million during this interval. Although this group of states has had an increase of about 14 million vines between 1920 and 1925, its proportion of the United States total fell to 19 per cent by 1925. This decline in percentage was caused largely by the extremely rapid increase in plantings in the central district of California. Most Rapid Rate of Increase in Acreage Has Occurred in Southern California. — In 1925 the southern district of California, including Imperial Valley, contained something over 6 per cent of the United States total number of grape vines and less than 10 per cent of Cali- fornia's total number of vines. Of the state's total grape acreage in 1926, the southern district contained nearly 20 per cent of the 18 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION un •<* lO CO l> _, CO 00 >c CM OS >n o M oo __ a CO •o o ta ^ N o e» o o o _ CSOOCOlOCNOcOOO OOeONNCOOlHOlcONM CO O a 115 CD m H^ COOJCMOCOCDO'* cj t- UiCMOOCOCNrHCMOO N 113 O ID (N 00 tO {O IN IN H O H o COCNiOOOOCOCNCTi *M0OMWNNH ^* CM © ■* th* 1-* i-T 0»050t^rH030i»0 oo CO * 115 CI H H bO J2 oso-h-^cocni'-© CO CO o CO 00 ^H » ifl lO t-i^ooo«oor^ ITS rHr^CNCNOiCDOO i-H lO ^H CD CO tO CM CO OCM10CM003W3CM J w Tjl_ rH CO_ CM US CN_ •>* -* CO »C «5 M ^_ CO CO lO Tjl q IN o cm M CO N N* IH >H Cf CM* rH rH b£ to e*»oiocooo!— ii— i io COCO^OOU^OOOiOOiOiO h*i«OC»O10Ot« USI^lOt^lOCOOrH C CO rHrHrHCOCM-***co©io<-Hoa> o co n h h Ot^OOCOOOSOOiC pq irj IflNOOWNMOH ^1 «J rH rH rH to "* » o OS 1H es OHClrtifllONO o o t^. : a 00 NMOOTllNiOOlOl C>« 00 >o o H 3 e>jcMcorH £3 N r-T a 'S3 '3 -a Ph bli .s rHlOCNiOCOOOI^CM MJONmnmiiON "* lO o o o» o OS : co : t- OO »o 3 pq N ©rHCOrHCNrHrHOO u» 00 m NOOtONHHHH co CO «H co eMOcoooasrHCNr^ C3 o o o ■* »o o o o CO 3S a» ooiOHrano^N iC »C 00 CO o m ■>* lO OO ccj U3 NMOtO^^iOffi »o CM rH ti t- 05 CO O T-T w ■* o Tf ^ oo oo O CO CM io CO CO o OO "g CS OiOTfi— lO^OOiCO CM CM CM co co »o CO OJ_ t^ CO_ CO CM O ^H 00_ rH "- 1 £3 C-" co" »-T i-T rH rH £ 3 hO bC o c~»o»ocoi^02CT>f~- o o iO O "5 o t- t^ o CO CO a o ffiONoono^o «5 f~ CM CO O O0 rH O o OO CO C<1 NlOtOtOHHTtlTtl lO CM ^ o> 00 o »o c3 CD pq 3 iH n 00 ■* N 00 N 00 CM CM 00 CO rH tJ< co ■># ooocoiraco»racoco CM1010OT-H0010O03OOU- OCMOOOcoOt^ OcOOTt c-ooooiornooo CO CO o CO 00 lO (35 lO e^^HOooioocci es COINONONNO rH »0 i-H CD CO : CM co CD05»CI^O>OlOO 3 > a ■«H * a w rt » oo n h t~T rH~ ,-T CO lO lO 0_ CM O •* iC5 Tfl 0_ rH t^" rl rH rH rQ bD C ITS rHO00»O00-HH»OC0 COOaiOOiOOOOOOlO"" ) t-0000000000 tH tftOO>CM © OO kC ># rH CO «0 rH C- CM rH rH P3 S^ "3 c -ri CCS rH CM ifi CO t~ OO O COCNCOCDOOrHCOOOCn.— icot-- CO 05 rH CM ->*< lO O HCNNINCNMCOCOM'I"'*^ * rH rH rH rH CM 02 2 c a : 03 r* (h o 5 c i s M •■3 e ■a i I* a 2 cc j .2 « a 1 1 C r< g r< Ill c t 7 i i a p: 3 a JO > O a ill ! §| c • ^ »> 3 2 PQ \S c 3 S E : C ; a : c I* •. r 5 a c j '5 .9 o s ' 6- :ij CO r? ■- a c p 1 s § 5 j K u 85 Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 19 la o H Hi O H 03 CM US u: BC CO CO US >o q o 3 oo 00 co o us CO US or 01 Ol CO. o 50 o C 1 o U3 o CO to CO IO us CO so CO CO CM CO C3> CM CO eo 00 CM CO co CO oo oo bC O) O N 115 O H 115 r- us en t*i o t- cm CO ^h -*< CO CM t-l Tfl US o o ■* CO h CO N Ouscor^ot^cocM ^tO-^cMooascocM » co w h ^ h n ^T cm" i-H bC Pi cu pq OU5-** d 'ffi "3 "3 o O T* CXI o "^ °- l-l CO o co ao cm i-^ us (30 05 CM i-l us 00 N OO N •* N K N in 91 CO CO CO io" oi co" h" CO bC o o co io US US co e>* cm o o a> cm co ■* CO CO bJD pj '(H o3 pq o •* us us CO CD t-4 Od" O C35 oo co ^H CO OO 03 CM i-H CM o us © CO r^ T*H « in * h us co_ CO__ CO us" oi" co 1-T CO ao co > "3 o h-i0050-^- oo oo us o co US_ CO i-l US CO bO C pq omcso'fiocoiM lONMCSOOCNCOO O IN N H N H ^h US CO CM CM WNOH^ONO OICOcOOOJNNIN 8> CO O CN CN IN ■* OS cm" CM us" CO en "S > la o INcOt^USOOi— li-H'^'^-'i'OUSOOUSOOUS C- 1^ i— l •^O'^'-iusosostMOcocooousr-.T-Hesji— i n m cm NMNCNHN^M^rnHNH ^ "i '* 1-4" i-H M CN cm" CO CM t- o t^ CO -* CO_ co" ^h" CM CO bD CM CM US CT> i— 1 US Ol ^ C5 CO Ol .-1 r-l CM ^H ^H •<*! US O O -* CO US CO CM O CM CO eo -^ co 00 co ^h CM ^H CM 02 Tf CO CM CM WO .9 S3 0) pq ©OUSOCT5©CO->cHCOOU5iOO©USOOUS t- US 00 lOOusr^.-HcoaicNcoocNcNcor^^HcM'-H ^ « oo m TO if) H lONMCCNrtCNH N CS IN ^ -^ ©~ ©" CM* PS CM US C3S us co cq a> CO O ^H-*iot-~a>oo •♦ co n ce c» h Tt *3 EJ § o 05 r P > C P B tz c p 1= p c ■fc B B 1 I i - i S ) H : c •1 i 0! p 1 a T c | IS 5 il 5 a e 1 T B | E is c ■ i- r 1 ; 1 c p 8 g 1 e p tx 1 ^ B P j c % 'I a c -z 1 PC c t P c t s 1 c i i 20 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION wine grapes, 10 per cent of the table grapes, and slightly less than 5 per cent of the raisin grapes. Acreage in southern California since 1920 has more than doubled, showing a greater rate of increase than either central or northern California. Imperial Valley, the earliest producing section of California, has increased its acreage more rapidly since 1920 than any other section of the country, with the exception of Arizona. 11 The number of vines in each of these sections was about seven times as great in 1925 as in 1920. California Bearing Acreage by Class and County, 1926. — The only available data which can be used as an index of California's county grape output for each class of grapes are annual estimates of bearing acreage made by the California Crop Reporting Service. Figure 3 pictures the 1926 data separately for the 20 counties which contain nearly 96 per cent of California's total of 653,000 bearing acres. The three outstanding counties — Fresno, Tulare, and San Joaquin — con- tain over 55 per cent of the total state acreage of bearing vines of all varieties. Fresno alone has 35 per cent, or 229,000 acres. The two counties, Fresno and Tulare, contain nearly 70 per cent of the total raisin acreage. These two, plus San Joaquin, lay claim to nearly 60 per cent of the table-grape acreage. San Joaquin County has the largest wine-grape acreage, followed by San Bernardino, with Sonoma a close third. Except for wine grapes, it is evident that the San Joa- quin Valley is the commercial grape-producing district of California. It should be added that the rank of only two of these counties is changed, and then but slightly, if the total of both bearing and non- bearing acreage is considered instead of the bearing acreage only, which is pictured in this chart. Washington. — Although still relatively unimportant in total out- put, the grape industry of Washington has expanded at a rapid rate since the war. The number of vines doubled from 1919 to 1924, and carlot shipments, the majority of which move in September, increased from less than 40 in 1919 to over 190 in 1925. Practically all of Washington's commercial grape output is of the labrusca type of eastern grape, and some of it has been pressed on a commercial scale for unfermented grape juice in the last year or so. Most Rapid Eastern Expansion in the Ozarks. — East of the Rocky Mountains the most rapid rate of expansion in the grape industry has taken place in the group of central western states of Arkansas, Mis- souri, Kansas, Illinois, and Iowa. The total number of vines in these states nearly doubled between 1920 and 1925, increasing from about 11 For the approximate acreage of grapes and number of vines in Arizona in 1920 and 1925 see page 11. Bul. 421 ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 21 eight and one-half to around sixteen million. In the last three years, however, shipments have averaged over seven times the average for 1919-1921. The most rapid expansion in acreage within this section has occurred in the Ozark Mountain region in southwestern Missouri and, particularly, in northwestern Arkansas. Grapes have been planted extensively in practically all the places in the Ozark region where Beor/ng Acres of Oropes //? Ca//forn/o by C/oss t County ', /9Z6. fOOO . ■ Thousanc/s o-P Acres Acnes /O J?ank q qq /0 q j5 zoo 250 1 1 1 1 ZZ9 84 57 Ml IZ3 8.8 l z 3 rresno Ta/are S.Joaquin ^K^W*ws«^ x&m i ^—MMtm m 33 30 ZJb ZZ 51 4.7 3.9 3.3 4 5 & 7 S.Berdino Madera Stanislaus Merced KJ 1 ■sa i Ba i Zl 3Z 8 Kern t&i i is 3.0 9 Kings EZD 19 23 10 Sonoma 16 ZJ II Sac '-ho gsa II 1.7 IZ Napa 10 9 8 IS 1.4 I.Z 13 14 15 5. Clara Sutter Mendocino =1 Wine — | Pa/sin — I I Table — K^R»J 8 I.Z 16 5. Diego El 7 1.0 17 Imperial SI 6 1.0 18 L.Angeles ■ 5 0.8 /9 P/ocer 1 5 03 ZO Riverside a Z8 §53 4.Z 100.0 Others ■HD Total Fig. 3. — Three counties — Fresno, Tulare, and San Joaquin — contain over 55 per cent of California's bearing grape acreage. Fresno leads all counties in raisin and table-grape acreage. San Joaquin is first in wine-grape acreage and a close second in table grapes. (Data compiled from table 2, p. 18.) strawberries have been, and are being, grown on a commercial scale. The number of vines in the state of Missouri in 1925 was nearly double that of 1920 and Arkansas' acreage multiplied six times in this five- year period. Because much of the planting in these central western states has been made since 1920, about one-half of the vineyard acreage is only a few years old at the present time. 12 12 T. J. Talbert, of the University of Missouri, states that since the advent of prohibition, grape growing in Missouri and Arkansas has expanded rapidly, especially in about a dozen counties in the Ozark section of southwestern Missouri and in the region adjoining Lonetown and Altus in the Ozark section of north- 22 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION PRODUCTION California Output Compared with that of AH Other States, 1922- 1925. — The fact that both production and. shipments of California grapes dominate the viticultural industry of the United States is strikingly pictured in figure 5. In the four years 1922-1925, the United States produced on an average about two million tons of grapes each year. California alone produced 1.8 million tons, or ^F GRAPE PRODUCTION \fc=£ Li* 1919 ~^~~Js ^\ s *--$r ~J \ f i \ *■ / / ^~T- _J_~ ^tt^3*^"*^ff y§ Ti "v J ' n~^r\^ ^J M J ^ Ui'Qi \\fc fcj ■* / j\ mL^^~ -&&/ jf 1 '■ : .'*^ W ■: 7- _ j .-.. r \ I f STATS LBS STATE LBS Calif 2105564*612 NY ISZ482698 Mich /I5.87/16S Pa 4Z68I.09O Ohio 4/.72Z796 loo/a /Z/65J/8 Mo 10.94 9.6 02 iVC IO.679.l08 III IOJ390I8 Ind 6 6/2.604 Orher 6433 Z350 \ ~jT EACH DOT REPRESENTS \ \1 50.000 POUNDS US 2.5/3,680.861 ** Fig. 4. — The three chief sections of commercial grape production in the United States are: (1) California; (2) the Great Lakes section, embracing certain parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan; and (3) the Central Western section, comprising rather localized areas in Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, and Kansas. (Eeproduced from U. S. Dept. Agriculture Yearbook 1925, p. 281.) almost 90 per cent of this enormous total. The rest of the United States produced 235,000 tons, two-thirds of which came from the four Great Lakes states — New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Approximately one-half of California's total grape tonnage was dried western Arkansas. Writing in the spring of 1924, he states that ' ' There are now more than 5,000 acres planted to grapes .... in southwest Missouri, but only a small part of this acreage has reached bearing age There are only two varie- ties being grown commercially in the Ozark region, .... Concord and Moore's Early. Perhaps 90 per cent of the acreage is Concord." In the spring of 1925 lie states that the established area in grapes in southwestern Missouri is at present between 7,000 and 10,000 acres. (American Fruit Growers' Magazine 447:7. July, 1924.) See also article by same author on Grapes in Missouri in the Cali- fornia Grape Grower 4^: 4. May 1, 1923; Cooper, J. E. (of the University of Arkansas) Grape Growing in the Ozarks, American Fruit Growers' Magazine 457: 5, 11. July, 1925; and T. J. Maney, Grape Production and Distribution in Western Iowa. ' Iowa Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 199', 1921. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 23 as raisins during the four years under consideration, which accounts for the state's shipments of fresh grapes being smaller in proportion to production than are shipments from the rest of the United States. Aside from California, the Great Lakes states mentioned are the only ones whose individual output has averaged 1 per cent or more of the United States total crop in recent years. The annual average tonnage shipped fresh during this period was over 890,000 tons, constituting nearly 45 per cent of the total tonnage, on a fresh basis, produced within the state. Fresh-grape shipments from the rest of the country amounted to only 124,000 tons, constituting slightly less than 15 per cent of the total carlot movement of the United States as a whole. Production *- Shipments erf Orapes, California Compared with Ail Other 5tates, Average /9ZZ -&Z5. Per- lOOO Cent Tons (OP 1985 Pnoducf/on 39 1772 California. -*- II Z/3 Other- Statas IOO 89/ Shipments 14 IZ4 Other States ;^^W^^^J Brie* as Batons -877. \ V//////////////A ■ 500 /OOO Thaasanafs of Tans ZOOO Fig. 5. — Of the United States' total production of nearly two million tons of grapes in recent years, California has produced almost 90 per cent, drying approxi- mately one-half for raisins. California fresh-grape shipments were over 85 per cent of the United States movement. (Data from tables 3 and 6, pp. 24 and 38.) California Output Much Greater Than All Other States. — The left-hand portion of figure 6 enables one to compare both California's total grape production and her total fresh-grape shipments with the rest of the United States for the years 1917 through 1926. In general it shows that California's output of grapes has never been less than six times as great as the total production of all other states combined. In some years it has been more than ten times as great. The relative flatness of the curves showing production and shipments of all other states than California, shown near the bottom of the chart, indicates no tendency in recent years toward any noticeable increase in the total commercial output of these states. The very evident increase in California's production and shipments, pictured in the two upper curves, are in marked contrast to the continued small output of the rest of the United States. 24 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION _^ bfl o3 U > 03 ^p O (0 00 00 tHOOCOCOO^iHOOOOOi-I (H e »HtOCOOOCOtOCOO^H>Cil^.O» § ^»it-i-l©OOOOtOt^©co^H-'t<0 toes»oocc>ooo«5oooiioaj^ji to w *00O)O100H[»00»'**N00 M O N * H « N co e«» ih o> P s ci *■■ t- § t-ooooo^oococooco rHiHOO-HOt£)OOOCO>00^< 1-H o »H *HOOI^CT>,-<^Hi-IOO©>0©t~l-l CO en o> s" cni-iooioaieocococococoirt •** ONOOMC44HH ■«»« « © » N H e^ N 1A Si c omoooocDTHOOOioo'* 00 c ooot— ->*oooio»hooocO'— 1© OOOOOOr^^Ht^iHcO-*COOOCOiH >o O c a CO 2 e>« c^ « U) N » H N r- tcoor^->*« *-T r- e>» s esooooocooooooioen g es;ioooiooeo-* CO 02 00 «J OO OOCOH MM CO f; U» e-*iOT»i 2 i co « C000OO>OC0O©O5-^J) o» es *H »-l w e* ^ s "rHOOOOO^OOOO^t- C-lrtOiOOO«>OOt^OOO»H c t- iH tH c^ o_ t^ o_ «o 00_ CO C0_ CO 10^ co_ »-<_ CO to u» io" co" 10" CO*" TlT N H to (O CO* «* fl 00 © [• rt O tO (N IN M CO en t^ cq es r-i a r- «■*" •2 © © s © CO to t- 3 e >* °1 CO CO T3 co 8 e4~ CO CO CO uf O *h rt [• ra »H CO e< *H Ph »- t-T © © O t» t- rH O 2 CO P. *"! °- CO CO 02 w 00 © Ift lO m e» 00 ©" ^r <2 B- CO CO 1* 1 C« »H *-*" 00 O C c ooocn—iOrt-Hirtiocooco^^ en ss c OOt--^CO-* 3 T* 3 8 3 t^" CO c C O©00C000©t~-t-COt^>— l-*tm oe?»e^o-*'-icooocooi02io>oe^ oieooionoojisojiNiNooHii) en c oc c 05 u e> « 00 1- 1-. a2iou»tooi^-Ht-oo'Hooioco« ir 10 a c 00 ^ V cfl e* '-1 to 5 I a 3 ' 1 I * *? j- c a c t f/ T C t. a 1 V t t e a X I c3 •3 M I to +, to C 1- E c s 1 i c c ■> .c X C 1 S to « .r ^ i ■a i pi ? a> O 1 pit j s c I 0] a ci ■ 1 i§ "3 5 Bul. 429 ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 25 ^ 1 m So 3co'„_ o3 03 ««« -^ (1, O 1 CM a> "7 1 3 00 03 CO f -^ o to t» t^. *-i t*. CM -«J 10 r^ co ^h CT2 ■** T* •"*! CO T»< 00 CM ^ IN CN CM H N OS CO s IO O CO CO -H IM CO O OS I— 1 i—l 02 CD faC o3 03 eq o3 00 C» CO CO N O CM c CO CO ^ CO i-l OJ CM OS 02 Irt O N O CO H O 00 00 10 10 N 0O OS a O s M N M CO H CM O CM CO i-c -H C2 OS Ol OO N C9 •* OO c O^—i^O 02 00 CM CO rt K5 CN H Ol Ol N CO OO O) 1-1 CM t^ CO 05 ^*l o> 00 00 C iH .-1 .— 1 05 O O CM CM CO 2 a N 10 10 »0 CO 'S O 03 03 3 c ' M^ CO ■*> -h 0) CO 2 £ " +s 02 03 0, 3 «3 OT o3 * C fa. O 03 CD +2 5 O ^3 +3 (H +3 Si w cc3 -£ O a "3 —■ * G — ci "3 s- cu ~3 P c < c c < -p*3 . sl-s 00.2 Ss » >-" 55 A3 C3 •*-! CJ o-o g ~3 05 -C 3 •• ^ £ O <£ "£ 03 =-> £ JtK 03 £ |-|.s S y >h a 03 £ o I ffltj'-P l< lip "E— ' 03 o3 O O r* CI <5^ S "3 a) ■£ o £ .-Soj£ , - , 0* J 03 ujJ > fc I o3 ft-3^ . o 2 n ai S 5" -3S£:2jtf| a o^5 b ^ 3 03 >, a? 03 3.£"o3 a cm 2 1-1 "£"' - dj?02-j5 03*3 o3 JR-3 ._, O 3 g 03 03 >_OJ-gg O "3 . „, S CM 03 . ^^^ C0^2§ ^ C MmS S-S 03 Z%< g^ c3 a a fl-flS^Spflg i^S fl-2ft£ § W O -£ 43 "g 03 oj^ *a 03 5 &^ Q a <& *0 iif Ills *D 43 03 O ci ^ til •2ft§S CJ O 03 03 ■OO^ 03 1111 2 2^ ^5 n.S ft 03 tD. ft o O I «^m2 - A 03 03.03 jj -d 03-2 s^S {- lull's il 3§1^|ft. -S'-^CDOSoCf- -3°ftfl §8 > >3oo fl ij2t; g^'lftfe^MQ s J->^ft^° • £ 03 «S^ Hd rr •• cu oo .PtO-H 2oS 2§|^3.2 03 °° T-j ^ '* H ,3 Q, CJ CJ S a *5 03 "- 3 tjT-O Q K. .- Pi t< 03-«CM O^ a Sx2 - fl ^ ft • ^I§£oci2! 3 S S 0.3 5£oo^ 26 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION suoj_ J-O spuosnoifj_ BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 27 Rapid Rate of California's Increase. — The right half of figure 6 pictures the comparative rate of change in grape production and ship- ments for both California and the rest of the United States as a whole. Exactly the same figures were used to make this portion of the chart as were used in the left half. In the right half, however, the data have been plotted on semi-logarithmic paper which has been used in order to bring out differences in percentage rates of change. The emphasis in this title should be on the words change and rate, for the chart is designed to show the relative or proportional changes for the whole period, and from one year to the next. The scale or equal vertical distances on the left half of the chart, as already pointed out, shows the absolute tonnage only. Equal vertical distances on the semi-logarithmic paper, although numbered as actual tons, show equal percentage changes. 13 Equal percentage increases over a series of years, when plotted on semi-logarithmic paper, are shown as a straight line. This fact is well illustrated in the right-hand curve of California grape shipments from 1917 to 1925. During this period shipments were increasing at an average rate of about 20 per cent from one year to the next. The steepness of the curve indicates the very rapid growth in the commercial movement of fresh grapes from California in the last ten years. Violent and Frequent Changes in Eastern Yields per Acre. — For some purposes it is very important to picture as equal, the same per- centage changes, regardless of the absolute amount of the change. Even though the grape output of the east is not nearly as large as California's, the violent percentage increases or decreases which fre- quently occur in eastern production from one year to another are a bad sign, even though the difference amounts only to 150,000 tons. With the slight increase in the bearing acreage of eastern grapes from year to year, it is obvious that an increased production of 100 per cent in a single year means that the yield per acre has doubled. Large and frequent percentage changes such as are here shown to be occurring in eastern grape production indicate that the industry is unstable. No doubt the risks and uncertainty of income, occasioned by these frequent and violent changes in yield per acre, are an important factor in explaining why grape production in most states other than California has shown but slight tendency to increase. is To illustrate: It is obvious that 200 is twice as great as 100; in other words, 200 is 100 per cent greater than 100. Likewise, 400 is twice as great as 200; or, in other words, 400 is 100 per cent greater than 200. Measuring the distance from 100 to 200 on the scale of this chart, it is found to be exactly the same as the distance from 200 to 400. Equal distances on the scale correspond to equal percentage changes, and not, as in the left hand chart, to equal differences in the absolute number of tons. 28 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Bate of Change in California Grape Production by Classes, 1899- 1926. 14 — Figure 7 pictures the rate of change in California's produc- tion of table grapes, raisin grapes, and wine grapes for the last 27 years. The curves are drawn on the semi-logarithmic scale in order to bring out differences in the rates of increase in production of the different classes of grapes. The extremely rapid rate of increase in table-grape production is shown by the steepness of the bottom curve in comparison with the other curves. Twenty-seven years ago California produced only 13,000 tons of table grapes. In 1926 her output was about 400,000 tons, or over 30 times the production of 1899. The rate of increase in the production of raisin grapes has not been as rapid as table-grape expansion, and hence the raisin curve is not as steep as the table-grape curve. The raisin-grape production of the state was about 160,000 tons 27 years ago. It was over 1,200,000 tons in 1926. Had all the 1926 tonnage been dried, the raisin output would have been 300,000 tons, or seven and one-half times the 1899 output of 40,000 tons on a dried basis. Prior to 1915, raisin-grape production in the state was smaller than the wine-grape output, but since that date has been greater than either wine or table-grape pro- duction. Wine grapes are the only class of grapes in the state which have not shown a steady and continuous upward trend in production throughout the entire period from 1899 to date. Political changes in regard to taxation of the wine industry and prohibition have made 14 The three classes of grapes — wine, table, and raisin — used throughout this bulletin are those most generally recognized in the state, and those employed by the California Cooperative Crop Keporting Service, which, when first using them stated that "the different varieties of grapes have been arbitrarily arranged by classes in accordance with their general use [for many years] rather than by considering the methods of disposal during recent seasons. That is, recognized raisin varieties such as Muscats, Thompson Seedless (Sultanina), and Sultanas are placed exclusively in the raisin-grape class whether or not the crop would be used for raisin, table, or juice purposes. Strictly wine-grape varieties are included in the wine-grape class whether or not they were shipped fresh, pressed, or made into dried grapes." (California Crop Eeport for 1923, Calif. Dept. Agr. Spec. Pub. 43:16. 1924.) The chief varieties included in the table class are Malaga, Tokay, Emperor, and Cornichon. Thompson Seedless, Muscat, and Sultana constitute the bulk of the raisin-grape class. The chief varieties in the wine-grape class in their approxi- mate order of commercial importance are Zinfandel, Alicante Bouschet, Carignane, Mission, Mataro, and Petite Sirah. In the fresh state the raisin grapes, particu- larly the Thompson Seedless variety, are used to a limited extent for table use or as table stoclc. Likewise of this class of grapes, the Muscat variety, especially, has been used on a large scale in recent years for making wine or as juice stock, according to the popular designation of grapes designed for, or probably con- verted into, wine. Table grapes, but chiefly the Malaga, are used to a consider- able extent as juice stock. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 29 the future of the industry very uncertain for the last twenty years, if not longer. Largely because of the great risks attendant upon being a political football, the wine-grape output of the state began to decrease after 1911, and at no time since has production been as large as the crop of considerably over 500,000 tons in that year. To summarize: In the last twenty-five years California's total output of grapes increased four times; raisin grapes considerably California Grope Production by Variety Classes, 1399 -io I9Z6 IOOO 7b- <-al < A \ — * / ^ x IOOO 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 ZOO 100 90 80 70 00 50 40 30 zo 90O / — \ V— 700 eoo 500 400 300 j8 zoo \ "§ too c; 90 \ BO 3 TO ^ 60 ^ 50 CO 30 RO IO . », / Wine , • *> ^ y x x N fc r'- .' — i V / \ s^ / ■«•. v *? i <— •' \ ,* ** / / / > \ / s +' V S X I <» * \ i / / / s .•»"■ **> -- f Pa > i / f \ / f \ +* ^' Ta •}/<3 / — y / i < / *. / / <" / j / t \. ^ .• ^ / 18. tf I90O 1 Z 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 I9IO II IZ 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 I9ZO Zl ZZ Z3 Z4 Z5 Z0 Z r Fig. 7. — In the last twenty-five years California's total output of grapes in- creased four times; raisin grapes considerably more than five times; and table grapes nearly 30 times. Wine-grape production, after reaching a peak in 1911, declined until 1922, when increasing output, as the result of high post-war prices, was first felt. (Data from table 4, p. 30.) more than five times; and table grapes nearly thirty times. Wine- grape production, after reaching a peak in 1911, declined until 1922, when increasing output, stimulated by high post-war prices, was first apparent. Production of Chief California Districts. — An estimate of Califor- nia grape production for 1925, made by the Crop Eeporting Service, is the first data available since the 1919 census from which the 30 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 4 Estimated Commercial Production of Grapes in California, by Classes, 1899-1926 Year 1910-14 average. 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 : 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926* 1927 Production in thousands of tons (i.e., 000 omitted) Wine 491 236 232 379 380 314 328 370 423 462 478 490 489 549 462 459 497 342 507 441 343 400 375 310 450 428 350 395 413 Table 13 12 14 15 27 22 24 31 52 57 88 74 96 95 95 132 134 136 161 173 200 166 163 213 312 325 339 366 Raisin 304 143 189 148 216 240 160 180 200 300 260 280 250 260 380 264 364 512 528 652 668 730 732 627 1,043 1,290 860 1,178 1,261 Total 893 433 541 611 581 510 574 654 814 795 858 813 905 937 818 1,171 1,254 1,184 1,330 1,273 1,100 1,706 2,030 1,535 1,912 2,040 Production in percentage of 1910-1914 average Wine 100 48.0 47.2 77.2 77.4 63.9 66.8 75.3 86.1 94.1 97.3 99.8 99.6 111.8 94.1 93.4 101.2 69.6 103.2 89.8 69.8 81.4 76.3 63.1 91.6 87.1 71.3 80.4 84.1 Table 100 13.2 12.2 14.2 15.2 27.4 22.4 24.4 31.5 52.8 57.9 89.4 75.2 97.6 96.5 96.5 134.1 136.2 138.2 163.6 175.8 203.3 168.7 165.7 216.5 317.1 330.3 344.5 372.0 Raisin 100 47.0 62.2 48.7 71.1 78.9 52 6 59.2 65.8 98.7 85.5 92.1 82.2 85.5 125.0 86.8 119.7 168.4 173.7 214.5 219.7 240.1 240.8 206.2 343.1 424.3 282.9 387.5 414.8 Total 100 43.9 48.5 60.6 68.4 65.1 57.1 64.3 73.2 91.2 89.0 96.1 91.0 101.3 104.9 91.6 111.2 110.6 131.1 140.4 132.6 148.9 142.6 123.2 191.0 227.3 171.9 214.1 228.4 Per cent of total production Wine 55 60.2 53.6 70.0 62.2 54.1 64.3 64.4 64.7 56.8 60.1 57.1 60.1 60.7 49.3 56.1 50.0 34.6 43.3 35.2 29.0 30.1 29.5 28.2 26.4 21.1 22.8 20.7 20.2 Table 11 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.6 4.3 4.2 4 7 6.4 7.2 10.3 9.1 10.6 10.1 11.6 13.3 13.6 11.6 12.8 14.6 15.0 13.0 14.8 12.5 15.4 21.2 17.7 17.9 Raisin 34 36.5 43.6 27.4 35.4 41.3 31.4 31.4 30.6 36.8 32.7 32.6 30.8 28.7 40.6 32.3 36.7 51.8 45.1 52.0 56.4 54.9 57.5 57.0 61.1 63.5 56 * 1926 data are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources of data: Col. 1. Years 1899-1918 from table 22, page 111. Years 1919-1924 from California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service, California Crop Report for 1925. Calif. Dept. Agr. Spec. Pub. 63:27. 1926. Years 1925-1926 from California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service, Summary of California Annual Crop Report 1926:3 (mimeo.). Jan. 5, 1927. Unharvested grapes are not included in these estimates. Total production including unharvested grapes are given in table 5, page 34, by classes 1919-1926. Col. 2. Years 1899-1918 calculated by subtracting from the annual interstate shipments of all grapes from north of Tehachapi, increased by 25 per cent (to include estimated shipments from south of Teha- chapi and total estimated consumption within the state) the annual total interstate shipments of wine grapes from the whole state for the years 1915-1918. These adjusted shipments in carloads were con- verted to approximate tonnage on the basis of 12 tons net per loaded car. Years 1919-1924 from California Crop Report for 1925, p. 27. Years 1925-1926 from mimeographed Summary of California Annual Crop Report for 1926, p. 3. Data for 1926 are preliminary estimates. Col. 3. Years 1899-1912 from California Fruit News. Dec. 29, 1917, p. 10. Years 1913-1918 from Associated Grower 5':16, Jan., 1923. Years 1919-1924 from California Crop Report for 1925, p. 26. Years 1925-1926 from mimeographed Summary of California Annual Crop Report for 1926, p. 3. Data on raisins are converted to a fresh basis by using one ton of dried raisins as the equivalent of four tons of fresh fruit. Data from 1920 to date also include raisin grapes consumed in fresh form. BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 31 approximate output of each of the three districts of California can be segregated. Production in the eastern states was abnormally small in 1925, and as a result California's grape output was over 92 per cent of the United States total, compared with an average of about 88 per cent for the last three years. California's 1925 crop, however, was not abnormal in size, and hence the estimates of California's pro- duction by districts in 1925 help to visualize the typical relative out- put of the three districts in recent years. The central district, with 50 per cent of the United States vines in that year, produced approxi- mately 70 per cent of the national grape crop. The northern district, with about 17 per cent of the country's total acreage, produced 18 per cent of the crop, while southern California, from 6 per cent of the vines in the United States, produced slightly over 4 per cent of the national output. The striking fact brought out by these figures is that the central and the northern district each normally produce more grapes than the rest of the United States combined. Even the production of the southern district, although less than 5 per cent of California's total output of grapes, is somewhat greater than that of New York, the most important grape-producing state except California. The 1925 output of the northern district — which is fairly typical of the last three years — was considerably more than double the average grape production for all states but California for the period 1924-1926, and about 3.6 times the size of the Great Lakes states' crop during the same period. The enormous production of the central district — which, with the exception of San Joaquin County, is almost synonymous with the San Joaquin Valley — is brought out by the fact that its 1925 output was nearly four times as great as that of the northern district. PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA Figure 8 was prepared to help visualize California's probable future production of each of the three classes of grapes. The basic data on acreage were taken from the California Crop Reports and converted from bearing acres of varying ages into approximate full- bearing age. In calculating the full-bearing acreages which are plotted in this chart, table and raisin-grape vines were considered as full bearing at five years of age and older, and wine-grape vines at six years of age and older. Production data include estimates of total production, unharvested as well as harvested, made by the Crop Reporting Service. In order to compare the figures for full-bearing 32 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION acreages with those for production in tons, both series have been converted to relatives expressed as percentages of their respective averages for the years 1919-1925. Relative California Grape Production , J9J9 - 1926 , and Estimated Full- Bearing Acreage by Classes 3 i919 ~ 1928. 175 150 'lZ5 too 75 SO /75 Raisin Crapes \ Acreage _1 1 1 i _ 1 l'— — 1 - Wine Grapes ^Production 175 150 IZ5 IOO 75 50 175 J50 125 100 75 50 ZZ5 ZOO 175 150 125 /OO 75 -A 50 /9I9 ZO 23 Z9 25 Fig. 8. — Full-bearing acreage of all grapes has increased rapidly in California since 1919 and, with the exception of raisin grapes, promises to continue upward until 1928 at least. It is questionable, however, whether increases in output, par- ticularly of raisin and of wine grapes, are likely, on the average, to keep up with increases in full-bearing acreage during the next few years. (Data from table 5, p. 34.) BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 33 If the average yield per full-bearing acre remained constant, pro- duction would tend to fluctuate above and below the curve of relative full-bearing acreage. A crop above normal in size would be above the curve of relative full-bearing acreage, whereas a crop smaller than average would be below the curve. Reliable data on yields per acre are not available for a sufficient number of years to judge whether or not there has been any definite trend in the yields per full-bearing acre of each class of grapes. Economic conditions in the grape industry in the next few years, moreover, may easily be such as to affect appreciably the care which growers give their vines, and hence the average yields per acre from the vineyards of the state. Anyone well acquainted with the grape industry can name several other factors, changes in which might affect the normal yields per acre sufficiently to make forecasts based on present yields seriously out of line with the actual results which occur. Among these factors are pests and diseases, weather conditions, methods of pruning and culture, the proportion of bearing acreage in heavy and in light- bearing varieties, or in heavy or light-bearing districts, and the amount of acreage neglected, abandoned, or grafted over. Study of the table-grape curves in figure 8 shows that increases in the production of this class of grapes have been fairly consistently close to what one might expect from the trend of increase in full- bearing acreage. Apparently there has been no appreciable decline in the yield per acre since 1919, and hence production has tended to rise just about as rapidly as the estimated full-bearing acreage. Table-grape acreage has increased at a much more rapid rate than the acreage of any other class of grapes. The 1926 acreage was almost 2.5 times the 1919 acreage, and the estimate for 1928 is 2.8 times the 1919 figure. It is estimated that there were about 53,000 full- bearing acres of table grapes in the state in 1919, which number increased to about 131,000 acres in 1926, and promises to be about 147,000 acres in 1928. With anything like the average of table-grape yields per acre of the last eight years, California's production of table grapes in 1928 may well be in the neighborhood of half a million tons. Whether all of such a tremendous crop would be harvested and marketed, even if it actually matured, is questionable. Prices may be such that large quantities will be left on the vines. The curves showing the growth of the raisin-grape industry indi- cate that its growth has not been at such a rapid rate as that of table grapes, and that maximum full-bearing acreage apparently will be reached in 1927. The full-bearing raisin-grape acreage was 2.1 times 34 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION 1 c M .a a OJ OS © 3 1 1 O 1 P 1 ec DC S •* Ol N M rt M O CO rH O UO CO CO •»tl -«t< IO CO CO CO CO GO a u M a 'm '3 bt) a ^2 £•3 aSBjaAB 52-6161 jo ^uao id c \ a O e 1 nixoiicco^cooi OOiNHMNOOtl suojl s 1 CO*— 1 CO CO CO -h Oi t^- 1 ^^Miiuinwn a .2 aSBjaAB 52-6161 1 2 jo juao jaj | e 1 oifflxnmni-ito I NNOHMonn (pa^iuio O00)'suox 3 00 CO 1 OtNIt^COOOCO^ 1 N N O O N OO " N bfi 3 ■c 0) fa aSBjaAB 98-6161 jo -juaa aa^ s . O e (pajjirao 000) «»-k>V s CO C4 1 OOOOCOCM»0— locs-h o©coi^<-hc\icooo bO 3 'E oj 0'tiHOO t^t^-COOOOCMlOOOOO rt h h rt cq N (pa^jiuio 000) sajoy Oi t- MlOMNHNOHnN »omuocor^ooi-ico-^-*i (paj^iuio 000) S8J0T3 SuiJBag 00 t- I0t^0»0r~t-~CO-Ct<0000 0) a t-, bfl O bO S3 a *2 .2 • ^3 aSBjaAB 52-6161 jo iuao jaj - O O «5I V ~»00'— 1 m N N HOIOOMOOOOOM suoj. 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''l N m ■* ^ N " H CO g e* oT ^-T *-T i-T << # 00 4(1 rt Cl> Ol OO CO «h c-a to to oo to ■»** to (»»rt^b~c»UO»OOOrt CM CO IO CM ■"*< T*< » Ol" H H H 1-4 »H H co cm" „ HNo rtortiNOOlOt^CM©'— i (D U) M p* Oi oo oo c^0^ 00 ~ ~ -h i-i" eo cm" +3 G CD MM^THOOOiOtOtDiOMtOM »o co 18 ^HioooaiooO'-icoc-a e >o y- rt t^ CO p. lO Oi l-H i-i r4 ** CM £ CO 0»rtrtloiO©050200©rt CM ^ O 0O rt ifl O rt M^HNNtOINWrt^lNH r^ t- ■"* — to CT> IO OJ O CO ^-< I>. HHHHNNMNINNmWWmM'* rt CN CM rt CO c M cjrt c +i ■J a J .He * P t s c c c F< a 3S4 •a CA a "2 c „ b a 1 B el i a . 2 G & g g •fi co co co £ - S c - ,3 e c Ph S >■ co >■ O eJ 'o O P co Q PC 1 g ri •§ J ri g -3 -§ S a a - S -1 ® a > •g co P£ "B ^ n 1 1 gs gas o o fc GS 04S c 42 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION enormous increase. Shipments from central California nearly tripled in the five-year period under consideration. The increase of 29,000 carloads from this section accounted for three-fourths of the country's total growth in grape shipments. The increase from northern Cali- fornia was about 6,000 cars, or 50 per cent. Shipments from southern California doubled, increasing from around 1,900 to approximately 3,800. Average Annua/ U5. Shipments of Chief Fresh Fruits, /9Z3 - /SZ5. Per Cen+ of l~o-rol Included Fruit) /O /5 SO 25 Cans Apples IZO+ Grapes 72- Oranges 70+ Watermelons 40- Peaches 37+ Cantaloupes Z8- Grapefrvf? zi - Pears 18+ Strawberries /£-+ Lemons 11+ Mixed Deciduous ?- Plums, Prunes 5+ Cherries 2* Mixed Melons Z+ Total 449 Fig. 10. — Of all United States fruit shipments, grapes have been second only to apples in recent years, accounting for nearly 16 per cent of the total movement of fruit. (Data compiled from Crops and Markets, Monthly Supplements.) The carlot movement from the Great Lakes states expanded less than 40 per cent from 1920 to 1925. It must be remembered, how- ever, that there has probably been a considerable increase in the use of the motor truck to haul grapes from this section to nearby markets, and hence the actual expansion in commercial movement has been greater than that indicated by the change in carlot shipments. It must not be forgotten that there is considerable commercial movement of grapes to grape-juice plants in the Great Lakes states, in which the bulk of unfermented juice produced in the United States is pressed. Bul. 42! ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 43 The most remarkable expansion in commercial movement in recent years has occurred in the central western states, whose average annual shipments of 1,100 cars from 1924 to 1926 were over seven times the average of 150 cars a year which rolled in the period 1919-1921. United States Grape Shipments Second to Apples. — Among the shipments of all fruits in the United States from 1923 to 1925, grapes ranked second only to apples, averaging between 15 and 16 per cent of the total carlot movement of all fruits. However, nearly as many Cor/oad/ngs of Grapes * Other Perishables, Average, I923-/9Z5. Total for California 7 Arizona, •*■ New Mexico . ^loi CenS- Grapes - 26.8 Vegetables - 20.4 O ranges zo.o Cantaloupes - 7.9 Dec. Tree Fru/ts 7.4 Lemons 4,9 Other Melons 2.9 White Potatoes Zl Apples — 1.0 Miscellaneous 6.0 Total ZZO.7 ■- ZOO.O% — Thousands ot 1 Carioads 10 ZO 30 40 Fig. 11. — California's grape shipments have greatly exceeded those of any other fruit or vegetable in recent years, averaging 27 per cent of the total state movement of perishables. (Data compiled from Proceedings of Pacific Coast Transportation Advisory Board.) oranges as grapes were shipped during this period, as figure 10 shows. Previous to 1925 the volume of orange shipments was larger than that of grape shipments, but in the last two years the rapidly increasing movement of grapes has exceeded the total shipments of oranges. Grapes First Among California's Perishables, 1923-1925. — The outstanding importance of California's grape shipments compared with the movement of other kinds of perishables from the state from 1923 to 1925 is pictured in figure 11. Grapes have constituted nearly 27 per cent of the carloadings of fresh fruits and vegetables in tlin 44 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION last few years. Oranges, the second fruit in volume of loadings, have accounted for 20 per cent of the state's movement of perishables, although they were exceeded slightly by carloadings of all vegetables taken as a group. How greatly California grape shipments increased relative to other perishables between 1923 and 1925 is shown by the fact that the carloadings of grapes increased from about 24 per cent of all perishables in 1923 to over 30 per cent in 1925, the year of the heaviest fresh-grape shipments ever made from California. CALIFORNIA SHIPMENTS BY VARIETIES AND CLASSES Total Shipments by Classes, 1925 and 1926. — California shipments of each of the three classes of grapes 15 — wine, table, and raisin — were nearly equal in 1925. According to the best available estimates 23,800 carloads of table grapes were shipped, 25,500 of wine grapes, and 26,600 of raisin grapes. (See fig. 12, p. 45, and table 8, p. 32.) Move- ment of fresh raisin grapes in 1925, however, was exceptionally heavy. In 1926 the state shipped about 23,900 cars of table grapes, 25,600 of wine grapes, and 14,600 of raisin grapes. Table grapes in 1925 constituted about 31 per cent of the state's total grape shipments; wine grapes nearly 34 per cent; and raisin grapes 35 per cent. In 1926, however, table grapes made up 37 per cent of the movement; wine grapes 40 per cent ; and raisin grapes only about 23 per cent. Growth in Shipments by Classes, 1919, 1925, and 1926. — The cross- hatched portions of the bars in figure 12 indicate the growth in ship- ments of each class and of the chief varieties of grapes between 1919 and 1925. Table-grape shipments increased 80 per cent between 1919 and 1925, while the movement of wine grapes increased 175 per cent. Shipments of both of these classes of grapes were practically the same in 1926 as in 1925. The enormous increase in raisin-grape shipments is most striking. Shipments of fresh raisin grapes in 1919 amounted to about 1,700 cars, being less than the movement of any one of the half-dozen most important table and wine-grape varieties shipped during that season. On the other hand, the 26,000 carloads of raisin grapes shipped from California in 1925 were 16 times the 1919 move- ment. The decline of 12,000 carloads in total shipments of California grapes from 1925 to 1926 was caused by an almost identical decrease in the volume of fresh raisin-grape shipments. Although there are no data on California grape production by varieties, rough estimates of shipments by varieties are available for 15 See footnote 14, page 28, for the chief varieties included in each of the three classes of grapes under discussion here and throughout the entire bulletin. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 45 the years 1919-1921 and for 1925 and 1926. (See table 8, p. 32.) These estimates make it possible to show, in figure 12, an approxima- tion of the relative importance of shipments of each of the chief varieties in 1925 compared with 1919, and to depict rather roughly the increase in shipments of each since 1919 (with the exception of wine grapes, for which estimates of shipments by individual varieties are not available for 1919). The movement of fresh grapes from California in 1925, excluding the abnormally heavy shipments of raisin grapes, is probably fairly representative of the past three years. California Grape Shipments by Varieties and Classes. 1919 - WKm 1925- Wine Tcrf-af "Z/'nfandef Alicarrf-e B. Other B/ack Other White 1919 9.3 f r ? ? — Thousands of Carloads 5 IO 15 ZO 3D Raisin To-taf 1.7 Muscat- /. / Thompson S. 0.6 Table To±af I3.Z Ma taiga. 6.7 Tokac/ 5.6 Emp&ror* 0.6 Others 03 Grand Total Z4.z Fig. 12. — California shipments of wine and table grapes were practically equal in 1925 and only slightly larger than the unusually heavy movement of grapes. From 1919 to 1925 table-grape shipments doubled, wine grapes nearly tripled, and raisin-grape shipments increased nearly 15 times. (Data from table 8, p. 46.) Table-Grape Shipments by Varieties, 1919 and 1925. — Malagas have remained first in California's carload movement of individual varieties from 1919 to date, except in 1925, when the unusually heavy shipments of Muscats put the latter in first place. Shipments of this variety in 1919, although the largest of any single variety, amounted to only 6,700 carloads. In 1925 Malaga shipments were nearly 50 per cent greater than those of 1919, and in 1926 were over 70 per cent greater. The 10,000 carloads moved in 1925 constituted about 13 per cent of California's grape shipments and 42 per cent of the move- ment of table varieties. 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O o> 73coM tu^p^^T 1 8^1sS^SS Q 3 3t3S^ C» O 03-H.5 48 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION showing an increase in shipments in 1926 over 1925. The movement increased in 1926 to 11,500 cars, equal to 18 per cent of the state's shipments and 48 per cent of the total of table varieties. Tokays have long stood second among the varieties making up California's table-grape shipments. The movement increased nearly 30 per cent from 1919 to 1925, rising from 5,600 carloads to 7,100, which number accounted for slightly less than 10 per cent of all shipments and nearly 30 per cent of those of table varieties. Ship- ments of Tokays in 1926 fell to about 5,900 carloads. Although second among table varieties, Tokay shipments in 1925 were exceeded in number, not only by Malagas, but also by Muscats, Zinfandels, and Thompson Seedless (Sultanina). In 1926, however, Tokays exceeded Thompson Seedless shipments, but were for the first time exceeded by Alicante Bouschet, which probably will continue to hold a rank above Tokays in volume of movement. Shipments of Emperor, third among California table-grape varie- ties, increased at the most rapid rate of any of these varieties from 1919 to 1925. Shipments of 4,900 cars in 1925 were over eight times the 600 shipped in 1919 and gave Emperors a rank of sixth among all the varieties shipped that year. Approximately 4,400 carloads rolled from the state in 1926. Emperor shipments constituted slightly over 6 per cent of California's movement of all grapes in 1925 and 20 per cent of that of table varieties only. In 1926 these percentages were approximately 7 and 18. About 1,800 cars of other varieties of table grapes were shipped from California in 1925 and approximately 2,100 in 1926, compared with about 300 cars in 1919. Cornichon is apparently the most im- portant variety among this group. Wine-Grape Shipments by Varieties, 1925 and 1926. — Shipments of only two varieties of wine grapes are given separately in 1925. Nearly 9,700 carloads of Zinfandels are estimated to have moved from the state in that year and about 5,000 cars of Alicante Bouschet. Zinfandels made up around 13 per cent of all grape shipments from California in 1925 and about 38 per cent of the wine grapes. Alicante Bouschet constituted slightly less than 7 per cent of the state's total shipments of all varieties during the same season and nearly 20 per cent of the wine grapes. Among wine grapes, the rank of these two varieties was probably the same in 1919 as in 1925. Records of a large part of grape sales on the eastern delivered-auction markets for the years 1924 to 1926 indicate that the production of Alicantes has probably been increasing faster since 1919 than the output of any BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 49 other variety of wine grapes. The big price differential which has prevailed since 1917 in favor of this variety has apparently resulted in a more rapid expansion in plantings of Alicante than of any other variety of wine grapes. Shipments of all other black varieties of wine grapes were nearly as large as the carlot movement of Zinfandels in 1925, and probably have borne somewhat the same relation to Zinfandels for several years. Judging from available records of eastern delivered-auction sales, the chief varieties of black wine grapes making up this group are Mission, Carignane, Mataro, and Petite Sirah, in approximately the order of their importance in the last three years. Shipments of white wine varieties from California have never been large. Eastern demand is almost entirely for black wine grapes, and ' ' vineyardists who grow white wine grapes have had difficulty in dis- posing of their crops and many have pulled up their vines or grafted them over, where possible, to black varieties." 16 CALIFORNIA SHIPMENTS OF JUICE STOCK AND TABLE STOCK Rapid Increase in Shipments of Juice Stock. — As is commonly known, much of the great increase in fresh-grape shipments since the war has consisted of juice stock, 17 that is, grapes packed for, or prob- ably used for, wine-making purposes in the home. The first available estimate of shipments of juice stock indicates that in 1921 nearly 20,000 carloads originated in California, constituting 60 per cent of the state's grape shipments in that year. From 1921 to 1925 Cali- fornia's shipments of juice stock increased approximately 170 per cent, while shipments of table stock increased only about 60 per cent. The estimated 54,000 cars of juice stock shipped in 1925 constituted approximately 70 per cent of the season's total movement of over 76,000 carloads. Although the number of carloads of juice stock shipped in 1926 was less than in 1925, being roughly 44,000 carloads, they constituted a slightly larger percentage of all shipments than in 1925. !6 Stoll, H. F. The merits of our white wine grapes. California Grape Grower, 59: 8. Sept. 1, 1924. 17 Those familiar with the marketing of California grapes will realize that an attempt to separate grape shipments into juice stock and table stock, as has been done in table 9, can, at best, result in very approximate figures only. Naturally all wine varieties are juice stock. It is known that nearly all Muscats are used for juice purposes. No one, however, probably knows with any reasonable degree of accuracy what proportion of Thompson Seedless, Malagas, and Tokays are ultimately used as juice, and what for eating. 50 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Wine Grapes Dominate Juice Shipments. 18 — Figure 13 helps to visualize the volume of the different classes of grapes which made up juice-stock shipments in 1921 and in 1925. 19 In both of these years wine varieties constituted a larger proportion of the total than either raisin varieties, which were second in importance, or table varieties, which held a relatively unimportant third place. Shipments of wine-grape varieties, which, in 1921, were about 15,000 cars, in- creased to about 25,500 carloads in 1925 and in 1926, constituting an increase of about 70 per cent. The percentage of juice stock com- posed of wine-grape varieties in 1921 was about 76 per cent, in 1925 only 47, and in 1926 around 58 per cent. The low percentage in 1925 was largely due to the abnormally heavy shipments of raisin grapes for juice purposes and, in small part, to the steadily increasing volume of table-grape varieties designed for juice purposes. Cafi-fornia Shipments of Juice Grapes By Classes, J 9Z 1+1925. /9Zt - mn /9Z5- wmE^ , tJZf ,X 5 S IO 15 ZO Z5 30 Wine I5.Z 25.5 Raisin 3.3 21.7 Tabia J A 7 / Tcrtal f9.9 54.3 Fig. 13. — California juice-stock shipments in 1925 were about 2.7 times those of 1921. Wine grapes contribute the most juice stock, with raisin grapes second in importance. (Data from table 9, p. 54.) Rapid Increase in Raisin-Grape Shipments Largely for Juice Purposes. — From a few cars of Thompson Seedless (Sultanina) shipped for table use in 1917, shipments of fresh raisin grapes had by 1925 increased to a maximum of over 26,000 carloads (local and interstate), constituting 35 per cent of California's total grape ship- ments. (See fig. 14.) Approximately 80 per cent of this great total of raisin grapes in 1925 probably was used for juice purposes. Raisin grapes constituted 40 per cent of juice-stock shipments in 1925, as compared with about 17 per cent in 1921. Shipments of fresh raisin grapes for all purposes in 1925 were over five and a half times the 4,700 carloads moved in 1921. i«For a discussion of shipments of wine grapes by varieties in 1925 and 1926 see page 45. ] o Figure 13 is based upon the data in table 9 which are rough approxima- tions only. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 51 Shipments of the Muscat variety were larger than those of any other variety of California grapes in 1925, and the largest movement of this variety in a fresh condition that the state has ever witnessed. Probably 19,000 carloads of fresh Muscats moved in this year, making up approximately 25 per cent of all California grape shipments, or two-thirds of the fresh raisin-grape shipments. About 7,300 carloads of Thompson Seedless grapes also moved from the state in 1925, con- California Juice -f Table -Stock Shipments by l/ariofieSj 1925. Juice Stock Tot-oi Muscat XinTandel Other Blocks Alicctn-fe B. Malaga Thompson 5. Tokay Other Whites 1.4 Thousands erf Carloads 20 3Q 40 SO Emperor Table Stock Total Malaga Tokay Emperor Thompson Muscat- Others Grand Total 30 40 50 60 Fig. 14. — Muscat shipments were abnormally heavy in 1925, ranking first as juice stock but followed closely by the wine varieties. Other varieties accounted for only about 20 per cent of the juice-stock movement. Malagas were first among table-stock varieties but were closely followed by Tokays and Emperors. (Data from tables 8 and 9, pp. 46 and 54.) stituting nearly 10 per cent of all grape shipments, and one-fourth of the fresh raisin-grape movement. The increase in fresh shipments of both varieties from 1919 to 1925 was enormous. Shipments of Muscats rose from about 1,100 to over 19,000 carloads, while Thomp- son Seedless increased from about 600 cars to 7,300 in the same period. In 1926, however, California shipped only a little over 10,000 car- loads of Muscats and about 4,200 of Thompson Seedless. 52 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION The enormous movement of fresh raisin grapes in 1925, it should be noted, can not be considered representative of what should be expected one year with another. A combination of circumstances, including low prices of raisins since 1922 and a considerable demand for raisin grapes as juice stock in eastern markets for several years, led to the shipping of nearly 11,000 more cars of fresh raisin grapes in 1925 than in 1924. Judging from the disastrous effects of the over- supply of juice stock on eastern markets in 1925, it would seem that the volume of fresh raisin-grape shipments in that year may be con- sidered as an abnormal and undesirable maximum which, no doubt, can be duplicated again, but obviously should not be unless the market demand for juice stock shows a remarkable and unexpected expansion. Estimates show that less than 15,000 carloads were shipped in 1926. The decline in fresh raisin-grape shipments in 1926 to about the same volume as in 1924 would seem to indicate that many growers consider the returns which they received or expected they might receive for raisins (dried) preferable to the returns from fresh raisin grapes shipped in 1925. An approximate basis for comparing prices for fresh raisin grapes with those for raisins (dried) is indicated in foot- note number 49, page 93. Table Varieties Are Least Important as Juice Stock hut Increasing Rapidly. — Figure 14 shows that shipments of table-grape varieties as juice stock have increased considerably in recent years, the 1925 movement of about 7,100 carloads being about five times the 1,400 carloads moved in 1921, and accounting for 30 per cent of the volume of all table-grape varieties shipped, as compared with 10 per cent in 1921. The 1926 movement of these varieties as juice stock from Cali- fornia amounted to about 8,200 cars, or approximately 34 per cent of table varieties shipped for all purposes. In 1921 about 7 per cent of juice-stock shipments consisted of table varieties, whereas the per- centage had risen to 13 in 1925, and was over 18 in 1926. Rapid Increase in Malaga Juice-Stock Movement. — Malagas con- stituted nearly 65 per cent of the 1925 movement of table varieties as juice stock, and Tokays about 28 per cent. Much of the relatively rapid increase in table varieties shipped for juice purposes in recent years is accounted for by the growing proportion of the expanding Malaga production which has been shipped for this purpose in recent years. An estimated 1,000 cars of Malagas shipped as juice stock in 1921 constituted only about 20 per cent of total Malaga shipments for that year. In 1925 Malaga juice shipments of about 4,800 cars were about 48 per cent of the total Malaga movement. Malaga shipments BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 53 for juice purposes in 1926 were about 50 per cent greater than in 1925, accounting for over 60 per cent of shipments of this variety. 20 Juice Stock by Varieties, 1925 and 1926. — Reference to figure 14 shows estimates of the number of cars of each variety of grapes shipped for juice purposes during the season of 1925. (See table 9.) Muscat shipments constituted over 30 per cent of the juice-stock move- ment, and Zinfandels about 18 per cent. The volume of all other black wine-grape varieties shipped in 1925 was practically the same as of Zinfandels. Alicante Bouschet shipments amounted to nearly 10 per cent of the juice stock, followed by Malagas with about 9 per cent and Thompson Seedless with eight. Only 3 per. cent of juice stock was composed of Tokays. Emperor grapes, the most of which roll after the eastern wine-making season is over, accounted for less than 1 per cent of the total juice stock. Comparison of data for 1925 with those for 1926, as shown in table 9, brings out changes in the relative movement of the varieties making up juice stock. ' ' Other black wine grapes ' ' are first, Muscats second, Alicante Bouschets third, Zinfandels fourth, Malagas fifth, and Thompson Seedless sixth. California Table-Stock Shipments by Varieties, 1925 and 1926. — The lower half of figure 14 shows approximate shipments of table stock by varieties in 1925. So few Emperors are used for juice pur- poses, and so large a part of Malagas, that Emperor shipments as table stock rank first, followed by Malagas, Tokays, Thompson Seedless (Sultanina), Muscats, 21 and miscellaneous varieties listed in their order of importance. These varieties held the same rank in shipments of table stock in 1926 as in 1925. MONTHLY VARIATION IN SHIPMENTS Purpose of Analysis. — A knowledge of the seasonal variation in movement of perishables day by day, week by week, and month by month, during each season is helpful in understanding the chang- ing conditions of supply which affect current prices and market- distribution problems. Such data, likewise, are valuable as an aid to visualizing certain phases of the transportation problems involved in moving the enormous tonnage of grapes and other perishables from California in a few months of the year. 20 U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ., mimeographed Daily Market Keport on California Grapes, No. 80 : 5. Nov. 6, 1926. It is estimated that dried Malagas, which amounted to only 1,500 tons in 1925, rose to 10,000 tons (dried) in 1926. Cali- fornia Crop Keport, Nov. 11, 1926: 3. (Mimeo.) 1926. 21 There is no reliable estimate of the volume of Muscats which are consumed for table purposes in our eastern markets. 54 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION CM Ol e 00 eo ^ to o eo CO C3S to eo CO at ■<*< cm t- CO 00 rH o> ■* co ^ 00 t^ t^ CD 6> CM 03 £N H h cq rl H 1C3 CM ^H CM *o d « M W 00 CT> l~- O 00 as T»< O O to to e>) co r^ t- CO O 00 CM oo to o o o tO CM CM CM i-H CM iH i-H to •^ rH rH CM CM i-l CM Ph CO CM O M » M CD N O "* cocMr-^^Hoor^-Hcocoo ,_, O © rH 00 O CO CD t- ■** CM OO CO r-HOiOOrHCOCDOCOCO© OJ CO CM rH o -c a 03 oo T* rH O0 n*ioa*MH^*o tO Ml CM O OO i-l H H » co co COOSCOCMCDCDOCMCMO 05 O CM t- eo cm o ^ iH a o ■ © o o M rt N OS O 03C0CDOCMCMOC0CCC0 a> Ph CM 00 © o o O f CO O CD «# -* CO tO CO CNCOCOOt^t^OCOCN'-l © CO •* O CO CO O CD •^©OlrHOCOCNOO© CD O CO COOOOrtOOJ oo .S-o cm ^ ** 1-1 rH ,H rH rH «s rt O og co co jtf eS o'" © © o o O CM OOOOlrHOI-^COOOO ■>*< © CO CO © OS OO us O t» co o to "3° >> CM 05 CD iH rt rH rH rH rH ""• CD -r= 73 bC 4) 22 8 3£ © o o O C5 rt O 00 05OOOOOOOCD-* <— I O O OO OCDCO o3 Sc Oi tO iH CD §88 © o o o o o o o o o oooooooooo ooooooooo ■* H Ol Ol °l I». CM # IO r- ■** Tf eo to" oo rH Tf N 113 IO ■* ■* CM CM tO rH Tf eq t-h *h °s 3 13 3 § 8 8 o o o O C OOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOO o3_C tO © O O CO N H o o O ^ CM CO rt OO K O CM OOrH02CN0200rHOOOO o> 1h CN a e > $ £ C V a 1 5 C ■4 E- 1 % c 6 ' = 1- DC « a 1 4 et e- 3 c e. c 2 E- C tt a 5 '5 *- 1 cc ■ 2 t c c 1 a a 6 — c c t r^ c 4« c I 1 a e 'r 1 c . a 9 1 7 a t J c > a I c r* t c ■ a 1 a e 'E ) I } 1 s Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 55 "o d cu P4 CO _ 0) CD "^ CO CM OS t^. O-Ti^-iOOOOoOt^OOO ooooo ocMt^ot-iosot^cMoo ooooo CM OS CO ooi-HOOoO'-icnooo ooooo O^OOO^OsO-^lOOO ooooo CM OS lO ooooooooo 00(^0 o o o o o CD I* -3 » s o3X3 O ^ 03 £ OS a a o CM -f oooooooooooo ooooo ooooooooooo ooooo lO CM >* CO_ 0_ SO CM_ i-J_ i-H »H i-H <© CO -<^ o_ CO ■*" <(i" d d h" o tjT w h u) n n d CM OS CO oooooooooooo ooooo ooooooooooo ooooo (OHNMOl^MOCOCXN lO N O^ t)< ■* te ic ih a rn n" n co ■* w" a us o> h CM OS ■ .* 03 > 8 of O - cc 4. 1 1 > PC 1 t a a s E- 1 t c. a $ c '/ 1 c c 01 £ 1 t a | g c X E- , c B 1 I c s « a c c a > 1 3 c * a — = a t a C pc a s t J c «: IS 1- a C sis g<* > - s || -£ S +^> 03 r ^ °1» iJS ° i* 3 O ~&*&£i c»-Q -° o Si's cjd 3i3-P o o3 . "g m OO g « - ao _, SCO'S "^ ."" g-fl --S « a^ R h > . n - cd 3 ™ .O O o3 OJ 03 O ^cooO—, ^ M to l? N oS A«iO S • -S N * CO* 0Q 12 » ' d Cd • . • OJ "_ i3 ,— ' T , > a S a„c 03 coOO (UN eta a 03 J3 " 3-5-C JU ^ g-^^5 o 3 a 3 js « rz3 ^ — _ • ^ oo S3 K o3 j 2 .5 M O J) 1) o co O 13 3 o o m 03 £ h£) ao OS 03 O 03 O St3 o o> 3 03 O co "o co o . - w co csa coT3 C o a> a o3 co a £3 >, «o x: i -0--5 §1 56 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION Monthly United States Movement. — Of the shipments of grapes originating in the United States in the last five years, approximately 98 per cent have moved in the months of August, September, October, and November. Slightly over 80 per cent have originated in the two months of September and October, nearly 9 per cent in November, over 8 per cent in August, less than 2 per cent in June and July, and only a fraction of 1 per cent in December, January, and Feb- ruary. The outstanding importance of the grape shipments in Sep- (Jnited states Monfh/y Shipments oF Fresh Fruits Compared with Grapes 3 Average, /9£2 ~ 1925 At/ fruits- f03 9.8 10-8 Grapes, United States. — Grapes j Ca/ifbr-nia , — — — "* Mon+hfy Per Cent. California of U.S. Grapes * IS. 7 10.6 1 Thousands 6.3 OA V oi* 58 0.4- J Cat- loads 90 /OO ■*• PerCcn+ Fig. 15. — The bulk of summer fruits moves before the heavy shipments of California grapes in September and October, during which months about 65 per cent of all United States fruit shipments are grapes. (Data compiled from Crops and Markets, Monthly Supplements. Asterisk indicates less than 0.1.) tember and October, compared with all fruit shipments (excluding apples and lemons) is shown in figure 15. 22 In the years 1922 to 1925, grapes constituted slightly over one-half of the movement of fruits originating in the United States in September, and over three- fourths of October shipments. An average of nearly 28,000 cars of grapes moved in September and almost 30,000 in the peak month of October. (See table 28, p. 125.) '^ Apple shipments are not included in figure 15 because of the fact that ship- ments of apples in these two months are not an indication of the amount that is consumed currently, as large amounts move into storage at this time. Lemon shipments are not included because they are used largely for soft drinks. BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 57 Early California and Arizona Movement, June through August. — Since 1920 there has been a noticeable increase in early shipments of grapes, particularly in June and July. Early Malagas and Thompson Seedless from Arizona, and especially from the southern and central districts of California, are responsible for practically all of this increase. Texas, the only other state ordinarily shipping before August first, moved only about 20 cars of early grapes in 1926. The volume of Arizona's early shipments, although small, has increased steadily and rapidly from less than 10 cars five years ago to somewhat less than 70 in 1926. In recent years California has averaged about 5,900 cars of grapes for the months of June through August, com- pared with 4,200 cars in the same months of 1920. About 90 per cent of the June shipments of grapes, which usually begin about the middle of the month, originated in southern California and approximately 10 per cent in Arizona. July Shipments Come Largely from California. — Practically all of the United States grape shipments in July originated in Califor- nia, which shipped nearly 2,000 cars in July, 1926, compared with less than 400 in 1920. About two-thirds of California's July ship- ments come from the southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, in the central district of California. Most of the remaining third originate in southern California, which reaches its peak movement of early grapes about the middle of July, shipments declining rapidly there- after until they become unimportant in August. Southern California shipments increase somewhat in September and October, but consti- tute only 7 or 8 per cent of California's shipments during these two months. Increasing August Competition Between California and Central West. — Early eastern grapes begin to roll toward market in August. In recent years they have amounted to less than 10 per cent of the United States total shipments during this month. The remainder are California grapes, about four-fifths of which originate in the central district and the balance largely in the northern district. Figure 16 shows that there has been a very substantial increase in August ship- ments of grapes from north of Tehachapi in recent years. The aver- age August movement for the five years before 1920 was about 2,400 cars, and since 1920 about 4,400 cars. However, the increase in August shipments, at the rate of about 10 per cent each year since 1917, has been considerably less than the yearly increase of about 18 per cent for total annual shipments. Increasing competition of Eastern producers in the early grape markets may be expected, however, during the next few years. Most 58 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION of the grape shipments from the central western section 23 move in August and the early part of September. The steady increase in total cars originating in this district from less than 200 in 1919 to over 2,000 in 1926, together with the fact that the total acreage of grapes in this section in 1925 was approximately double that of 1920, plainly indicates the probability of much greater competition of August ship- ments from this section with those from California. Monthly Interstate Shipments of California <5rapes from North of Tehachapi, 1909 - 1926 . 30. 1 , 1 1 , 1 1 1 .30 zo n I •Sep i~emt ber^ II 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 \ **.»„ 1 1 Oaf ober t/ / -'' * 1 // ?mbe / \ (Aug ■jsrf T.-r .... mw, m » ■ ■ .»•« ^*» # >< * • \ Dec ===== / emb * > ' s * - Z5 1909 10 II IZ 73 14- 15 /<£ 17 18 19 ZO Zl ZZ Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Fig. 16. — The eastern demand for juice stock, comprised chiefly of wine grapes, has caused an enormous increase, since 1916, in shipments of California grapes during the months of September and October. (Data are given in thousands of carloads and are from table 10, p. 60.) Rapid Growth in California's September and October Shipments. — The major portion of California's large increase in grape shipments in recent years has consisted of juice stock. Shipments, accordingly, have increased most in September and October, during which months the bulk of the juice grapes ripen and the demand for wine making is greatest. Figure 16 shows the striking growth of California inter- 23 The states which have been included in this section are Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, and Illinois. BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 59 state shipments from north of Tehachapi in these two months. Before 1920 shipments of grapes from this section averaged about 4,000 cars and had never exceeded 8,000 cars in either September or October. Since 1920, however, shipments in each of these months have risen to a maximum of approximately 28,500 cars in 1925, averaging 18,000 in the five years 1921-1925. The rapid increase in movement during September and October is further illustrated by the fact that the rate of increase in shipments during these two months has been about 22 per cent a year since 1917, compared with an annual increase of about 18 per cent. The proportion of the season's total grape shipments moving in September and October, as well as the actual number of cars, has increased substantially in recent years. (See fig. 16, page 58.) Approximately 68 per cent of the season's interstate shipments moved from north of Tehachapi during these two months in the years 1913 to 1917. The rather flat curve at the bottom of figure 18, showing average weekly shipments for the years 1913 to 1917, when contrasted with the steep curve of average shipments for 1922-1925, emphasizes the enormous growth which has taken place in the commercial move- ment of grapes from California in recent years. California Major and United States Secondary Peak in Septem- ber. — While California's heaviest movement of grapes occurs in Sep- tember, the total United States shipments during this month are usually second to the peak movement during October. In recent years, approximately 28,000 cars of grapes have originated in the United States in September, and California has supplied nearly 90 per cent of this number. Over half of California's portion has come from the central district and about one-third from the northern district. Only a very small percentage has come from the southern district. A comparison of the 1920 curves with those for 1925, in figure 17, shows that, while the movement from northern California has increased rapidly since 1920, it has been greatly exceeded by the enormous growth of shipments from the central district. Major United States and Eastern Peak in October. — California's only serious competition with Eastern grape shipments in the past has usually occurred during October. The heaviest shipments of Eastern grapes occur in this month and California's shipments are at that time nearly as large as her peak movement in September. As a result, the total United States movement of grapes is greater in October than in any other month. In the last five years grape ship- ments originating outside of California in the month of October have 60 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION constituted about one-fourth of the total United States shipments, averaging nearly 4,000 cars. Rapid Rate of Increase in California's November Shipments. — For the five-year period before 1920, November interstate grape shipments from north of Tehachapi amounted to nearly 2,000 cars per year, or about 400 cars less than the August movement. Since 1917 the November movement has increased at a rate of about 20 per cent a year. November shipments for the period 1921-1925 averaged slightly over 5,000 cars, compared with 4,200 for the month of August during the same years. TABLE 10 California Interstate Grape Shipments from North of Tehachapi, Annual 1895-1926, Monthly 1903-1926 An nual shipments, 1895 -1902 Year 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 Carlots 1,010 712 1,100 734 847 825 966 1,033 Monthly and annual shipments, 1903-1926 Yeir 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915. 1916. 1917. 1918. 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 July 2 21 1 2 7 74 40 131 84 5 120 97 49 65 4 139 444 279 151 196 255 574 637 1,542 Aug. 292 372 259 320 644 420 1,043 1,146 965 978 1,053 1,631 1,074 2,287 1,383 3,628 2,315 4,298 2,811 3,170 4,544 6,055 4,449 6,378 Sept. 673 624 700 907 1,429 1,480 2,297 1,910 1,989 2,339 2,310 3,055 3,233 2,870 4,001 5,061 7,267 8,107 11,367 13,828 17,932 22,731 27,154 23,752 Oct. 675 369 580 733 1,132 1,511 1,629 1,378 2,396 2,422 2,172 3,025 3,669 3,182 5,636 6,642 5,575 9,264 12,215 14,186 17,461 16,840 28,477 19,801 Nov. 160 65 62 90 248 332 863 379 930 585 678 952 1,535 1,318 2,806 888 3,371 2,184 1,974 5,510 7,593 4,597 5,955 5.331 Dec. 39 133 11 241 840 116 262 475 Other Total 1,804 1,451 1,602 2,052 3,460 3,819 5,880 4,948 6,374 6,357 6,363 8,773 9,563 9,722 13,944 16,358 19,018 24,280 28,529 37,132 48,626 50,936 66,939 57,295 Sources of data: Annual totals compiled from California Fruit News for all years but 1926, data for which are from preliminary releases by the carriers. Monthly data estimated for 1903-1923 by applying to the annual totals the percentage snipped each month according to compilations of the California Fruit Distributors and for 1924-1926 compiled from data released by carriers (including minor estimates by the authors). BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 61 Except in the six-week period centering about the middle of Octo- ber the California grower has, practically speaking, no competitors except other growers within the state. If, during the rest of the season, markets of the country are depressed with an enormous volume of competing supply, California shipments alone are to blame. A decrease in Eastern shipments alone, no matter how large, cannot lessen the present market supply of grapes during the rest of the season sufficiently to appreciably affect the relative profitableness or unprofitableness of shipments during, or before, this month. Inverse Relation between August and November Shipments. — A comparison of interstate shipments north of Tehachapi in August and November, in figure 16, shows an evident tendency toward inverse correlation since 1914. In those years in which August shipments are relatively large November shipments are small, or vice versa, when August shipments are relatively light November shipments are heavy. The degree of correlation is — 0.7739, 24 which indicates that during the period 1914-1926 approximately 60 per cent of the variation in November shipments can be accounted for by the variation in August shipments. The chief reason for August and November shipments moving in opposite directions is probably the fact that in early seasons the percentage of California grapes which mature and are shipped in August and also during September and October, is larger than in seasons during which the fruit matures later. Thus a smaller percentage is left to be shipped in November in early seasons. On the other hand, in years when grapes are late in maturing, a larger proportion of the crop is shipped in November. The practical im- portance of this relationship between August and November shipments lies in the ability to judge more accurately in August what the volume of shipments is likely to be later in the season, and particularly in November. The ability more accurately to visualize seasonal move- ment in advance should be of material assistance in handling market- ing and transportation problems throughout the shipping season. 24 Calculated by the method of first differences applied to the percentages that August and November shipments were of the season's total shipments. For a description of this method see Mill, F. C, Statistical method, pp. 427-429. 1924. 62 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION WEEKLY VARIATION IN SHIPMENTS In studying the seasonal movement of a highly perishable com- modity such as grapes, it is essential to analyze weekly as well as monthly shipments. Differences in the movement in various years make it difficult to construct a single picture which is truly repre- sentative of weekly shipments in recent years. For this reason seasonal shipments for each of the last three years and for 1920 are shown separately in figure 17. Similarity of 1924 and 1926 United States Movement — Weekly variations in total shipments for the United States exhibit a marked similarity in movement during the two years 1924 and 1926, both of which are characterized by two peaks. The first occurs about the middle of September and is slightly lower than the second peak in the middle of October. The two are separated by a period of three or four weeks, during which time shipments are noticeably lower than in the two weeks of heaviest shipments. Decisive Influence of California on Total Shipments. — The manner in which California's shipments have affected the total weekly move- ment for the United States as a whole, compared with the volume of shipments originating in all other states, can readily be seen by a study of figure 17. Shipments from the eastern states before the first of October obviously had little influence in determining the total volume of movement in these years. The United States total move- ment practically coincides with California's weekly volume of ship- ments, which constituted 98 per cent of the September peak in 1924, about 94 per cent in 1925, and 92 per cent in 1926. Outstanding Importance of Central California.— The rough paral- lelism between California's total weekly movement of grapes and the volume of shipments from the central district of the state, shown in figure 17, indicates the major influence which grape shipments from this one section of the state have had upon the total movement of grapes originating in the United States in recent years. A comparison of the volume of shipments from this district in 1920 with that in each of the last three years brings out the remarkable increase which has occurred since 1920. The average annual United States shipments of grapes from 1924 to 1926 were somewhat less than double those of 1920, whereas shipments from the central district were fully three times as great. Only 30 per cent of the country's total fresh-grape shipments originated in this district in 1920, compared with 55 to 60 per cent in recent years. Raisin, table, and wine-grape shipments Bul. 429" ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 63 Week/y Orape Shipments for the United States and Ca/i-fornia by Sections ; /9Z0 v- f9Z4~ /9Z6 . Augus-r Sep-+ernber Oc+ob* A/ovamber- December- , June July Augus-r Sep-famber-. — October November December 1 1 I 1 1 i i i | i i \/A'^ \ I I I I I I I I I f9ZS United States J j rs^, California 8 - - - ^••2-Nv - ,>Ss- - I I •Juns sjufu Augus-r Sep-hembsr- October- Novernber- December ~ I9Z4 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 s ~ - ~ <^7/"tW 5"/o feSL if ^^ - J^ X \.^nA -California ~ 4 Central-^ X /»„ _ C-/ \ N \ _ z f^s vr*^ lorthern V - : \ - r> I i —wH&f*** n..J Lf<..i / Southern v .A. r""i i i - 1— 1 CN CO CO CN 1— li-Hi-H o iH o 5? „ M5 «5 CM 03 "3 o >" H si O IC CO -H CO CO O i— 0000000203i-IC005Tt*CMCOINt^r-llOCOO 3 MUSNNHiaooeo^lHiO^USOONNOO^^N^W CN CO »« CO 00 o - ■<)( lO r- < 1^ -H G t CO »0 CO 00 CO i— ICO»0-H*»0»Q©10»OCOCOCN CO e i-H Tf< CO CO 00 1- 1^ lOOSOOikOCOt^cOOt^-CNOOCNi-Hi-H O B COlOOSOSOsf^COCOCOCNi-H e* : »C HNeioiooo*io« OC OCOt-~OOC005COCOi-H03lOOCO-**OCOt^-i-Hl^cMCOCOOOcM >H N N iH 1-T * H c ^!DMMtDU3IN!C ■HHOCOt^i-HCO^H-Hi- o ^Ht^^OOCOlOO^-HHCN CD t- 1-H c -Hooa5-«ti CD in i-H CO i-H CM ->*l Tf oc CROOt-hiOOOOCOOOOOCN-HH"*^ .2 ^3 1 to a- CT>t^-iOOOt^TtlOOOCOi-H '3 iH o fc „ S3 CD el OS o ■a to ^MMNOONlOO tC oor^iooocooi^c©t^-HH>o->*ia5T-ior^ i-HCNCOCNOOOC^i-HCNCOOi-HHlOCNOcO ■rtH-^0500COC01^r-1lO(NOO^ IN M N 0O N OO K g (N^CONCOW^COCOMHH O t" T-l I> aa)iflfrtiofflo>c)n»oiNijHooTjiHHio») CN *3 s ■«*tOco>or^cOi-HCNcocN lOI^CNCNi-Ht^OOiOcNCOCOaiCOcNOCO HCOIlTjIOOOlOlC ■^oot^asot^-coooascoi-HO^cNiN o eo ■*t>OCN)»OCnOCO>0>OcM^OiOC ^HrtCM r-ICNCO fHCMCM 1-Hi-HCS •3 3 1 cd O > * < 1 c a 0G 1 c > c c 9 e a Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 65 73 CO ITS CJ r~ OS CO lO CO t~ OS CO CO OS CTi OJ CI JO lO o -+l 0) CO C— t-i »-i os <— i in im oo in Tf oo r- i — i Jl -g oo —Hi— ICOC©OCOCD©_OOlO>— 1 : Sis T-T ^h of cm cm G -C S OOCO^HHMOOiOOOOOtDWOONONNOOO ^H(MOOt^i-HCra(MOO-HrOOCO'>!t<(M o> <-h cm co co ocMOioioa5cOi-< es HOOMHM^ONHHNitlN 2 t- e-i O *-h "3 fc (H o o ia , O a •# anooo*oo«mNOooitiooNooitimooso)(0 f* 9 lOOOmfflOOHOlDOONOOitlOO- HlOOO^OCNi-H i— li*-CDOi— 1 «# i-H ** COlO-^CMO^OiOOCMC^OacOCOr^lOOOOCOcO-^OOac© "rt "* i-H-i to t-ii— i io -■ i ca oo oo w rf "5 -- 1 n o w h oo i- 1 Q co ih i-T ej cJ eo m « n h cq ih t^ c- COOcOW05lOlOCOCOOCXDijO<^lCCO^C^C©lOCOO-*J-l3~-Hr^--HCOasO-^ :00O00i0T-lOOt^O00-HCDC0»0CXIOC0C0O-<*<-H^H00(M^H CO 4) CO •-h N'ffflHoo'foiainooiHoaininiN A -g «N rt^H rtlNMHNINO^NH O M r-t i-l CO CO r* G -G s TfrtlTllMmO^HaOnOllOMNHOO^IN ~H CM 1-H ^H CO n o) ■* to » i- 1 coco»oa2coc .-h r-l (Mr^THlClCCOCqi-i G co O m G 0^ CO OO i— < Oi CTs -h © CM i— iOH00 h es »-i(Mi-(05r^ir>oo05to^tiooancococNiOioio020CT>cOT-i^H 00 i-ICOi*100t^iO^Hi-iO'- COO«OCCI^05(MCO'*iO«0-Hl^-^003CJ3«OiOOOOia>COrHi— I i-H u H(N Tt oc -^ or ir e> Cr cc « c « 5 e* i G 3 t- - T (i 1- ■1 0< 3 if co . 01 ^ Oa ^ (H m I CO o> eo S oj &NJ. G w a M if-: a cj t- g 03 G<2 fl o G a^ - -O • 35 s^ 6 «C- Sf.&i S oj°S' g-* 3 . 00 (h a O a , ^_G ^,_ - J3 tn ^i* 1 w S J G _T c3 to a 00 > CO iSs- 03 X' St3^ S £ d 1; c3 03 r ~ l (1 G b O to o a+^ 5P-S g 2-^ 00" S -Ja ^ S¥|5|2i S G-" 3 fe S50 >a_g G« d^ O-O O^ g g 03 d GChJ CO "5 p; g; i-5 t3 Odd; oa^i ; co ' 10 j^ o .+s-+- a 00 (3<+H»H.rH -I ^ d CO o3 o3' H _ J ^; O CO i^Q £d a s . 8 s^ o.&sgoS, g^ ag)§ o .S«2X--Gr^Xl 66 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION from this section have all increased enormously, a fact which is not surprising when it is remembered that central California has long been the primary center of production for Thompson Seedless, Mus- cats, Malagas, Tokays, and Emperors, and also the secondary center of wine-grape production. Weekly Shipments from North of Tehachapi, 1922-1926. — Inter- state shipments from north of Tehachapi have been used in figure 18 to show the typical weekly variation in California grape shipments because data for this section are the only continuous and comparable series available for the state in years before, as well as after, the war. Since shipments of grapes from south of Tehachapi are not large enough to have any appreciable effect on the weekly movement from the state except in June and July, when total shipments are very small, the weekly variation in shipments from north of Tehachapi can be considered fairly representative of the interstate movement from the whole state during the rest of the season when the large majority of the state's total grape shipments are rolled. Practically all of the interstate shipments from north of Tehachapi normally move in the weeks which fall in the four months of August, September, October, and November. In the last five years an average of only a fraction of 1 per cent of the season's total has moved in the first and the last weeks pictured in figure 18, whereas at the peak of the shipping season from 10 to 12 per cent have rolled in a single week. The average for 1922-1926 shows a peak movement in the last week of September of about 5,400 cars, equal to slightly over 10 per cent of the annual shipments. Eastern demand for juice stock in the latter part of September and in October is largely responsible for the heavy shipments of California grapes during this part of the season. A study of table 12 will bring out the fact that the major peak of shipments from the state in recent years has varied some- what, although it usually occurs in the second, third, or fourth week in September. After a slight recession from the heavy peak move- ment of the latter part of September, shipments usually decline somewhat for about a week and then rise again to a large but sec- ondary peak about the middle of October. Comparison of P re-War and Post -War Shipments from North of Tehachapi. — Before the war, shipments of wine and raisin-grape varie- ties for juice purposes had played but little part in swelling the total of grape shipments from California. Much of the tremendous volume of shipments in September and October, 1922-1926, which are pic- tured in the lower half of figure 18, has been the result of the great increase in shipments of juice stock in recent years. The effect of Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 67 such shipments in swelling the percentage of grapes shipped in Sep- tember and October is brought out by the curves in the upper half of the figure. Weekly Interstate Shipments o~f Ca/itbrn/a Grapes "from Nor-th of Tehachapi (Averages, 1913 - 1917 arid /9ZZ - I9Z6) iz Shipments in Percentage of Season's Total - 1 / s ^>V - \ 192Z-I9Z6— / 7 i hS - '7 i . v l^~/9/3 -1917 \ \ - 4 // \ \ k y^* / y 1 1 I \ V f 31 7 14 Zl 4 II 18 ZS Z 9 ltd Z3 30 S 13 ZO -?7 4 Shipments in Thousands of Carloads - - - - I9ZZ -I9Z6-^ - - - - 1913 ~ 1917-^ - -^ N » ~~* ■**• i i i ^ 31 7 July 14 Zl Z8 August- 7 18 Z5 ■Sep-f-ember- 9 16 Z3 30 Oc-f-ober- $ 13 ZO Z7 4 November Dec- Fig. 18. — California grape shipments in the six weeks from the middle of September to the latter part of October were over six times as great in the last five years as in the years 1913-1917. Much of this tremendous increase is the result of the rapid growth in juice-stock shipments in recent years. (Data from table 12, p. 68.) Average annual shipments of grapes from north of Tehachapi were five times as great in the last five years as in the years 1913-1917, having increased from less than 9,700 to slightly over 52,000 carloads a year. From 750 to 850 cars of grapes a week moved from California 68 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION ^ d O U 0> CO O (ONNO'XHIONHWIOHOIHNWOONIO CM OS *-4 dHHNcodgddddooaitoNiQnH'He) T ~' Ph CM 05 'S a) c3 e ooooooooooooooooooo o 00 COi-HCO(MCOt^I^-MeMOOCO(M0» HHM^IOWIO^^^MNH > IA s <] o ^ d V o e MlOlOMOlOOHOHfflOlOONHOlOOOO^ l« o rtrHrtN^Nd^OOoioOoJfflfflTliiHrtbd o o nioNoitooii»nOO^N o Oi 00 CM J3 HW^OO^lfl^lOMMNHH c3 ^ d o OOOlHlO^ieoOOOOl^OlHfflMOOOOHilN CO § OOHHW^NHNNoioiOOOOCOHHod o o> tH Cl, >o CM 05 03 s ooooooooooooooooooo 8 Tj<0'«*<0'-iOOcMOCOOeoaicDCO'*J<0'*lOiOCMt^CM<— 1 c3 o> jd IP CO rtHmiONOOMlOfflWlONH O ^ d o »!BU}')l«5NSniOOOlO*IOOONOCIH*H ~H 1 O i-li-IC0«50503(MO00t^00I--Tt<^>-I^HOO o o> PM CM CT> 02 o ooooooooooooooooooo COCMcOCOOa>-«*NIS*CON»C00(l^00H00COINC COCMCOOOOt-lCOCMOCMr^COt-^CNIOOOC© s CO £3 »- _0 t- i-l»-H c c a e K Bul.429] ECONOMIC STATUS OP THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 69 _p a o 4) O M«NN>*MlSNNaiW*OOOlOi«N*i- 00 o Cl, CO 03 03 03 o3 a> ooooooooooooooooooe M00H«raHU5iOONH(N«5NN' en 6 < .p a O OIN10^0a'*lOnra^M(Nl')*NNNC e OOOC»ffl0i»N<*N6c o W >n on s o OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOC o <£ HHNMCI3N000001000000NCOWM CO irt o "7^ Ol 03 u +, C o h 0) a iO»!B*M(i3NC o Ph «. 03 t! e ooooooooooooooooooe »0 O T*< CO lO CM .— lt^(N.-lcOCTi»0>— I0505t^-**CC o c- t- HW*WlONNO0!D!DNNenMNIN o oe H 03 O ^ a 4> o e 0 4) 03 3 t- & o T- >* oc «* oc l« CM a cC ec o CC cc o ■* CO rt CM CNJ i-H .-H c c 03 Q s a J cu d 03 o u 03 1 *H I il! p-H 03-~ l-l » « *£ ** fa fl S u g-~ a ■M (D 03 C "3 _£_ o H ■** a) s«o o i?J DO CC+» fl S3 OB t< "S s lis: s ^»^ O ft' O fcj a.. «0 r< 03 n S u o ft g '* H 83 ft tZJ 03 ^§£ § .5^ S « d ft « «S Be© O ^3 ft H ira d 03 ft^ oj a-^3 ft o en >c^a O -d -|S 03 (h 4) _ ^5 So- 70 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION in the six weeks from the middle of September to the latter part of October during the period 1913-1917, averaging about 800 cars. From 1922 to 1926 the weekly movement during this period averaged nearly 5,000 cars, varying from about 4,500 cars to over 5,400 cars in the week of peak movement. In other words, average shipments during this six-week period were over six times as great from 1922 to 1926 as they were from 1913 to 1917. Estimated Weekit/ Shipments of California Grapes as Juice and as Table Stock , I9Z5 and 1926. 19 25 Juice Stock?] - - / Table r 1 1 1 1 y i i i 1 I9Z6 Ju/'ce STock Aug. ^ 5 cQ « Sept. | o> iS § % ^ Oc-f-. Jui'ce Tabled /Table Stack I I L_l I L_ ro * ^ 5i & ^ Oci: i /Vb t I 1 § iz /ssm^-j.^fj'- '■ > f^iSfiflGIEiKiiS H 9 W i5SZ5W/Sl^^^^lmlS^S^S^i ':: *$£i IS Fig. 21. — Exports of fresh grapes, although gradually increasing, account for less than 1 per cent of United States production. (Data compiled from annual numbers of U. S. Dept. Commerce, Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States.) WEEKLY VARIATION IN PRICES Comparison of the Same Varieties in Different Years. — The ques- tion, "Do weekly prices of the same kind of grapes tend to move up and down in about the same way in different years?" is one vital to growers and shippers, from the standpoint of better time distribution of the grape crop during the marketing season. Figure 22 is designed to make it easier to compare the weekly variations in grape prices from August first through the middle of November during the past three years. At first glance, these curves show no very apparent similarity in the seasonal movement of the same varieties of grapes in different years, although a careful comparison seems to indicate some regularity in seasonal variation. It seems doubtful, however, whether the degree of likeness in the comparative fluctuations of prices in the different years shown is sufficient to be of much, if any, value as a basis for indicating how shippers may in any practicable way increase their returns by putting more grapes on the market during periods when prices are most likely to be higher than average. 41 *i A more intensive study of seasonal variations in grape prices and the factors determining them is beyond the scope of the present bulletin. The possibility of discovering valuable relationships in this field, however, make such studies highly advisable. 82 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION «8 N \ \ l" 1 I 4 ) > i ( / ) J +, ^ V \ |§ < J > % S 1 C "> 5. --- J R "> ;/ ^ J g» «** ^ i& f 1* < V a r & q ^ < / ^r i j 3 § \ \ a q iSS ■ w $ 5p > ; - X ': g ^^ / - 1 ^ \ 8* 1 V "> ^ - £ j \ %l ^ !Q is i Is 5 J^- ^.^ g" ^ 1 0) V ■ Sj 1)1 ! ^s $ - ** 4 - o> zzi-id d£oj&A\f suosveg- jj? +<->aj ^cg BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 83 Tokays. — A study of figure 22 discloses the fact that the similarity in the seasonal movement of prices in different years is much more noticeable with some kinds of grapes than with others. Tokay prices, shown in the second column, exhibit more similarity of movement than any other variety pictured. Every year from 1917 to date Tokay prices have been uniformly high in August, then have tended to fall rather rapidly until a low point has been reached in the latter part of September or early in October. This usually has been followed by a more or less noticeable rise in prices for a week or two in the last of October which, in turn, has frequently, though not always, been followed by the rather abrupt declines indicated for 1924-1925, prices, usually reaching the lowest point of the season about the middle of November. Malagas. — There has been no striking similarity in the seasonal movement of Malaga prices in the last three years. The earliest Malagas, reaching the markets as they do when the supply of grapes is light, usually bring a high price, followed by the tendency to decline until late in August or early in September. Frequently, rising prices then occur until a secondary peak somewhat above the seasonal aver- age is reached about the middle of October. Frequently there has been a decline during the latter part of October and the first few weeks in November. Thompson Seedless. — Early in the season Thompson Seedless, like Malagas, have regularly commanded high prices, showing a tendency to decline rather rapidly until they reached what has usually been the lowest point of the season in the latter part of August or, at times, well into September. The price has customarily risen from then until near the latter part of October, when a more or less rapid decline has taken place. Exceptions to the tendencies just described are quite evident from a study of the prices pictured in figure 22. Wine Grapes and Muscats. — The prices of wine grapes as a group have been characterized by a fairly regular tendency to rise during the month of October, sometimes falling and at other times rising in the early part of November. Muscats, the large majority of which are used for wine making, have show T n a somewhat similar tendency, in most years. Comparison of Different Varieties in the Sarne Year. — Whether or not there is, in a given season, any tendency for weekly prices of different kinds of grapes to move up and down together is a question more easily answered than the one just considered. Weekly prices of all varieties of grapes in 1925, shown in figure 22, have a striking and 84 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION much greater similarity in movement than in either 1924 or 1926. With the exception of Muscats, the prices of every variety in 1925 were relatively high in August but tending to decline. In the latter part of September or the first three weeks in October there was a small but noticeable tendency to advance for a short time, followed by a precipitate drop during the last five or six weeks. A comparison of the seasonal variation in prices of different varieties in 1924 and in 1926 discloses two general tendencies for nearly every variety; TABLE 17 Weekly Eastern Delivered- Auction Prices of California Grapes per Lug, by Varieties, 1924-1926 Malaga Tokay Thompson Seedless Muscat Wine varieties Week ending Dollars Percent of average Dollars Per cent of average Dollars Percent of average Dollars Per cent of average Dollars Percent of average 1926 Average 1 11 1.10 1.07 .97 1.26 1.67 1.76 1.21 .93 .96 1.19 1.39 1.24 1.06 1.01 1.11 100 99.1 96.4 87.4 113.5 150.5 158.6 109.1 83.8 86.5 107.2 125.2 111.7 95.5 91.0 100.0 1 38 100 1 09 .97 .89 .92 1.14 1.72 1.36 .99 .88 .85 • 1.06 1.62 1.59 1.36 1.36 1.11 100 89.0 81.7 84.4 104.6 157.8 124.8 90.8 80.7 78.0 97.2 148.6 145.9 124.8 124.8 101.8 1 03 1.35 1.04 .81 1.13 1.28 1.15 .88 .81 .83 .97 1.05 1.14 1.19 1.18 1.53 100 131.0 101.0 78.5 109.6 124.3 111.5 85.3 78.5 80.5 94.1 101.9 110.8 115.6 114.7 148.5 1.40 1.45 1.24 1.17 1.21 1.35 1.27 1.17 1.16 1.27 1.45 1.50 1.45 1.55 1.58 1.91 100 103.5 14 88.8 21 2.21 1.87 1.82 1.67 1.37 1.81 1.13 1.34 1.88 1.71 1.20 1.05 1.00 160.0 135.5 132.0 121.0 99.3 131.1 82.0 97.3 136.1 124.1 87.0 76.2 72.5 83.5 28 86.5 Sept. 4 96.5 11 90.9 18 83.6 25 82.9 Oct. 2 90.9 9 103.5 16 107.0 23 103.5 30 110.8 Nov. 6 113.0 13 136.3 1925 Average Aug 8 1 03 1.68 1.68 1.95 1.43 1.47 1.43 1.37 1.31 1.34 1.32 1.46 1 34 1.08 .68 .65 100 163.1 163.1 189.3 138.8 142.7 138.8 133.0 127.2 130.1 128.2 141.7 130.1 104.9 66.0 63.1 1.13 100 1 04 1.44 1.16 1.13 1.18 1.27 1.18 1.13 1.18 1.24 1.24 1.21 1.02 .79 .67 .58 100 138.5 111.5 108.7 113.5 122.1 113.5 108.7 113.5 119.2 119.2 116.3 98.1 76.0 64.4 55.8 .97 100 1 51 100 15 1.00 1.16 1.21 1.28 1.31 1.16 1.17 1.22 1.24 1.32 1.18 .97 .73 .69 103.1 119.6 124.7 132.0 135.1 119.6 120.6 125.8 127.8 136.1 121.6 100.0 75.3 71.1 2.10 1.92 1.80 1.80 1.79 1.75 1.85 1.80 1.71 1.58 1.43 1.39 1.12 1.43 139.1 22 127.2 29 3.52 2.29 1.82 1.52 1.29 1.28 1.24 1.35 1.24 1.17 .81 .71 311.5 202.7 161.1 134.5 114.2 113.3 109.7 119.5 109.7 103.5 71.7 62.8 119.2 Sept. 5 119.2 12 .... 118.5 19 115.9 26 122.5 Oct. 3 119.2 10 113.2 17 104.6 24 94.7 31 92.1 Nov. 7 74.2 14 94.7 BuL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY TABLE 17— (Concluded) 85 Malaga Tokay Thompson Seedless Muscat Wine varieties Week ending Dollars Per cent of average Dollars Percent of average Dollars Per cent of average Dollars Per cent of average Dollars Per cent of average 1924 Average 1 31 1.63 1.24 1.59 1.39 1.39 .96 .98 1.13 1.27 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.45 100 124.4 94.7 121.4 106.1 106.1 73.3 74.8 86.3 96.9 103.1 103.1 104.6 100.8 100.0 100.0 110.7 1 40 100 1.06 1.54 1.12 1.08 1.10 1.04 .79 .79 1.04 1.15 1.12 1.12 1.16 1.26 1.39 1.05 .98 100 145.3 105.7 101.9 103.8 98.1 74.5 74.5 98.1 108.5 105.7 105.7 109.4 118.9 131.1 99.1 . 92.5 1.12 100 1 90 100 8 15 22 3.49 2.20 1.82 1.71 1.64 1.73 1.47 1.41 1.58 1.77 1.47 1.14 1.04 249.3 157.1 130.0 122.1 117.1 123.6 105.0 100.7 112.9 126.4 105.0 81.4 74.3 .74 .94 .84 .77 .95 1.04 1.07 1.11 1.22 1.34 1.25 1.21 1.32 66.1 83.9 75.0 68.7 84.8 92.9 95.5 99.2 108.9 119.6 111.6 108.0 117.9 2.23 2.06 1.72 1.55 1.65 1.61 1.81 2.05 2.16 1.98 1.96 2.02 2.48 117.4 29 108.4 Sept. 5 90.5 12 81.6 19 86.8 25 ... 84.7 Oct. 3 95.3 10 107.9 17 113.7 24 104.2 31 103.2 Nov. 7 106.3 14 130.5 See footnote to tables 18 and 25, pp. 86 and 120. for sources of data. The weekly and seasonal prices are weighted average prices on the eleven chief eastern delivered-auction markets, except in the case of wine grapes. The weekly price of wine grapes is a simple or unweighted average of the weighted average auction prices of Alicante Bouschet, Carignane, Mission, Petite Sirah, Zinfandel, and Mataro varieties. The seasonal average for wine grapes is a simple average of the weighted average for the season of these same varieties. The prices are converted to relatives by dividing the seasonal average into the weekly prices. first, to be high in price early in the season, and second, to rise in the latter part of September or more usually in October. Wine grapes and Muscats showed less of a tendency to bring high prices in the first weeks they came upon the market than did table grapes. ANNUAL PRICES AND PURCHASING POWER Table Grapes, 1910-1926. — Annual averages of the prices of Malaga and Tokay varieties from 1910 to 1926, representing the approximate f.o.b. return at California shipping points to table-grape growers of the state, are used in figure 23. 42 The solid line, indicating 42 The footnote to table 18, page 86, describes in detail the source of these prices and methods used in computing them. The f.o.b. price has been estimated by subtracting freight and refrigeration and a 7 per cent sales commission from the Eastern delivered-auction price. Representative figures showing the cost of packages, packing, and loading table grapes for each year could not be secured, and for this reason it has been impossible to compute the approximate farm price received by California growers. Any reader who might supply such data on costs for any or all years from 1910 through 1926, would render valuable assistance in further studies of the California grape industry. 86 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION dj ft - p,S §a ^o°5 h V OS > Ph ^o« ooiooooNooaHnioioioioen ■OHMOOOONOOntf) ■* m oo o 'O I I a ioco-^>oeo^f °^ I- I 2 S | ! NNONOoomc-ic^i- co r^ ■* t*i rt r-n r-i ^H ^H ,-H ^H rt C^l -H— l-Hr-H-HOOOO NcOO^OOtDiOCOOOlOOO'OOOOrHNO) (N05rH(NOlH«>(NOOOOOC') ,-H rt rHrtrHT-HNCNlNWrHrHrHrH fSM S.2 g o-g.2 ! II 7 Oi > Ph -< o3 CD*' O h Ph^. 03 liii j;oci, o> i _ 3§ft ft sS.2 CONr-ICO0)C0'*crBr-ICM0sa>00rHC3)OO cOincOCSifNOCOcNeOCCiOOiHOOlcDOO ©OOOOOOO-h^h^h-h-h^hOOO .^Tfoooi^mcricBinoocTOO-HcNaiNo •— iO^H-HH0:eCN]-**l"00a}»0er<|(3ir^Oc0iC I CO -H -* O 00 t OONCMCOWJCN'H^lOOSOOOiniOaiOO!) iO(CNl-rfl^*lCOTti-* l CO'* l '*'Ot^-^*< »o ( OOOOOOOO' i^HrH-HOOOO© »H rHO^H' ihhhcNMCNhhhhh I bo- 0^tCNCO'*iOCO^OOc350^c>clCO-^ , '0 < »f^ icNoqcNCvicqcMiMiM Oi C3= cj - iCT>aio50)ooioioiaio>aioioioi I Hi CI =3-2 3 o>^o3 ftW 33 3 J™ & B> »H B a; q) i> o £ ft « £gl o3 2 £ S . en 7 t->7 L g o)'^ S 3 « b> io o h O 0> 5 C33 V CI 3 lll g 3 o3 *r 3-rJ >>"d :G;3£S -i .2-62^ - C3* 1 * o> g^ -Q £Oc?a; ai en i ft en o N o3 r*.2 ©S3 <*> — r -G • - o> f-S-0 ft^3 <22^2g^ K i en bD -H -*i O) (CM £ 3 0) O ^ ■Si ^S-B o3T3 o3 .Boi _j og r -c o> |>^2WB| •^ H. 03 u . tn . rt.o8 ai 6 bl I oQ g^;^ ^fM»Ofl3 .-£ J< B cni B g 3 « S2'3 s fe OJ «4,^hB 53 ^ °h3-S g-gBft^^S -ftSSg^-aS^'S'S 0> ' ft »h g s£b •r o>0 :ti ^ °" a lis h ^ b -3 G aj-r; en °* -B «'*"' +3 o) tu co G a OG i ft-B^43 i^i :- 1 en O •■£ t»r! oj ft+i o3 3lS|§ ftjg «P5 © 03 « B hO G 2hB o3 o3 O o> +3 ^ +^ 03 >'e» o> Si 2 >> >>b 2 >-l O -Tl • « «<-l o3^h w Geo -bJSoT^- 00 25 ^ o3 £} o e» ^TJ o3 O 0>^+j 1 i»;a Jo » >>- ^ « T3 mOCS CB^I J) G If S2-B>h r OJ 03 g g^^^ ^Ol3 o fe B^ < o^'S 3^-3.2 ""SjSftleBo. •^ B o o3 °g E GO oOg MO- ftS ^ u ftn? • B^ 03 B g 00 > •§££:B^gSB 0»>, . ?0 » O H Q. .3^2 2=3-1 - =3c7Q a" 73<+-.2o3TJ£r!03G >, 03 S >£»•£ -d.2 ¥ >>-£^ 9,< csh?Go a-2 - °fer>>SOG03fto, ftfiB -^■g- O -|^>G2;g a |2 S.J.2s5"o^ Shfi^T3SBo3Go3o30o3-TC»>iS-T!3G . • cu G-r flt! >H 03-S 03 o3 ( 'Q* ^ §T3 B . • Sft. "g P rt G3 en'' a b tn rT^^2.o3oo ,P >»»°Qo gOOO 0300 a-^uu -G 01 hG Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 87 the price per ton, shows strikingly the rapid rise in prices from about $35 a ton in 1914 to about $130 in 1920, followed by an even more precipitous drop to the new low level of $50 a ton in 1925 and 1926. The fluctuations in prices shown in this curve represent price changes that have been due to two sets of causes: one, the changing value of the dollar; the other, changes in the relation of supply of, and demand for, grapes. Malaga - Tokay Average Price and Purchasing Power j 1910 ' 1926. (Estimated -fo.b. Shipping Points Based on Eastern Delivered -Auction Sales) Pr ice-^ y / \ \ s \ A 7 urchc Po\*rer \ \ Fig. 23. — Prices of California table grapes rose steadily and rapidly from 1914 to 1920, trebling in this period. After 1920 they dropped precipitously until 1925. Eeturns per ton in terms of dollars of pre-war purchasing power rose and fell less rapidly than actual prices, reaching a peak in 1921 and declining sharply since then, dropping below pre-war purchasing power in the last two years. (Data from table 18, p. 86.) It has not been possible in any year since 1914 for Americans to purchase as many units of goods in general for a dollar as they could from 1910 to 1914. The supply of money and credit from 1914 to 1920 increased faster than the trade demands for it and chiefly as a result of this fact the value of money, or its purchasing power, fell. As a result of this decline in the value of money, at least two dollars were necessary in 1918, 1919, and 1920 to buy goods in general which could have been bought for one dollar in 1914. This being the case, the dollars which grape growers received in these years were worth in purchasing power less than half those which they had received and spent before 1914. 88 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION In order to approximate what California growers got per ton for their grapes in terms of general purchasing power, changes in the value of the dollar have been eliminated by the best method at present available to economists and statisticians. The upper solid line in figure 23 shows the actual prices received. The dashed line shows these same prices after they have been converted to purchasing power, that is, deflated, or expressed in terms of dollars of the average value or purchasing power for the period 1910-1914. The fluctuations pic- tured in this curve of purchasing power per ton represent, therefore, price changes which have resulted primarily from changes in the supply of, or the demand for, grapes; or from coincident changes in both. Purchos/ng fbwer of Chafavguo - Erie Grapes, /900 ~ /9Z6, and Malaga - Tokay Average f.o.b. Ca/ifomia, /9/0 - /9Z6 . Fig. 24. — The purchasing powers of California and eastern table grapes have moved up and down together rather consistently since 1910. (Data from tables 18 and 19, pp. 86 and 89.) The purchasing power of California table grapes averaged $43 per ton for the nine years 1910-1918, showing a very slight trend downward during the period, just as raisin prices did. 43 From 1917 to 1921, however, their purchasing power per ton more than doubled, rising rapidly from about $30 to nearly $70, and averaging $54 for the five years, 1918-1922. The purchasing power fell extremely rapidly from 1921 to 1925, in which latter year it was less than $30 per ton, or considerably less than one-half of the 1921 value. With the im- mediate outlook for crops at least as large as the enormous tonnages of 1925 and 1926, 44 there seems little reason to believe that the price and purchasing power of California table grapes will not remain relatively low for several years to come. The curves of both price and purchasing power of table grapes illustrate the general principle that violent and prolonged upward swings in prices and purchasing power of a commodity are likely to 43 See discussion on pp. 103-106. 44 See discussion, pp. 31-35. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 89 be followed in due time by several years of unprofitably low prices. Such an occurrence is usually an indication of over-production. The price curves pictured in figures 26 and 29, pages 92 and 104, tell much the same price history for other kinds of grapes as the chart discussed above. TABLE 19 Estimated Commercial Output, Price, and Purchasing Power of Chautauqua-Erie Grapes, 1900-1926 Year 1910-1914 average 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 Commercial output Carloads of 10 tons 6,734 7,669 7,594 5,062 2,952 7,479 5,362' 5,634 5,186 4,232 7,561 5,700 8,100 7,528 3,957 8,386 7,072 4,307 4,797 2,087 4,921 5,350 1,376 7,857 3,945 5,200 3,279 Per cent of 1910-1914 100 114 113 75 44 111 80 84 77 63 112 85 120 112 59 124 105 64 71 31 73 79 20 117 59 77 49 122 Estimated value Dollars 2,319 008 1,200,500 1,659,646 1,694,226 1,100,000 2,150,000 1,776,248 2,482,822 2,400,000 1,640,000 2,085,000 2,200,000 2,384,000 2,315,036 2,088,590 2,607,415 2,279,475 2,344,653 2,571,326 2,200,905 4,622,411 6,854,740 1,702,260 5,490,900 2,367,240 3,117,240 2,951,460 2,544,332 Per cent of 1910-1914 100 52 72 73 47 93 77 107 104 71 90 95 103 100 90 113 98 101 111 95 200 296 74 237 102 134 127 110 Price per ton Dollars 37 16 22 34 37 29 33 44 46 39 28 39 30 31 53 31 32 54 54 105 94 128 124 70 60 60 90 31 Purchasing power Per ton Dollars 37 Per cent of 1910-1914 100 51 73 108 114 89 103 130 130 114 76 103 87 84 141 84 84 114 81 143 122 151 224 124 103 105 151 54 U. S. all- commodi- ty whole- sale price index 100 91 96 92 99 103 95 101 102 100 103 129 210 230 150 152 156 152 162 154 Source of data: Cols. 1 and 3. Years 1900-1915 from Phillips, H. D. Cooperative marketing in the Chautauqua-Erie grape industry. Cornell Agr. Exp. Sta. Memoir 28:14. Sept., 1919. Data on output and value for 1910 and on value for 1900 are estimates by Phillips. All other data originally compiled from annual estimates made and published by the Grape Belt, a semi-weekly newspaper published at Dunkirk, New York. Years 1916-1926 from the Grape Belt 3282:1. Jan. 21, 1927. Col. 5. Values of col. 3 divided by tons from col. 1. Col. 6. Prices per ton in col. 5 divided by the all-commodity wholesale price indexes in col. 8. Col. 8. U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics all-commodity wholesale price index for the United States for calendar years converted to a 1910-1914 base of 100 per cent. From U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ. Agricul- tural Situation 9 2 :8. Feb., 1927. Returns for Eastern and California Table Grapes Compared. — The fairly close relationship between the price of eastern grapes and 90 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION of California table grapes is shown in figure 24. The curves pictured therein are representative of the price of these two kinds of grapes, and indicate that there is a general tendency for prices of the two to move up and down together. The average prices of the two for the same season, however, have seldom been the same. 45 Apparently the California. Shipments of Table Grapes and Purchasing Power of Malaga - Tokay Average, 1910 - 19Z5. (In Per-c&n-rag^ erf Normal ) ^+ZO 1 a. k -10 1 ^-20 <0 - Po. >~<:ha sing Pow s/~ — v t \ \ k V Q - i \ i / / r \ \ \ \ \ \ \ 1 \1 \ 1 1 / / \ i \ I ,S / ( \ / y / \ / A / \ / \ \ \ \ 1 1 1 1 f \ ^ \ ' \ T \ \ 1 1 Shi pme n+s- \ \ \ \ - \ \ 19IO 1 1 IZ 13 14 15 ie 17 18 19 ZO Zl Z2 Z3 ZA ZS Z6 Fig. 25. — The fact that the purchasing power of table-grape varieties has in past years usually fallen below normal when shipments were above normal and vice versa, is a basis for predicting prices from forecasts of production and prob- able shipments. (See footnote, p. 91, for source of data and method of compu- tation.) purchasing power per ton of eastern grapes showed no special trend either upward or downward from 1900 to 1917. Very likely this fact was largely true of California table grapes during this whole period. From 1917 to 1921 both California and eastern-grape prices and pur- chasing power rose together with startling rapidity. Since 1921 they 45 The absolute prices shown in figure 24 may not be strictly comparable in any given year. The price of California table grapes is an estimated f.o.b. price. Inquiry lias failed to reveal, however, whether the Chautauqua-Erie figure is an f.o.b. or a farm price. It is believed, however, that the Chautauqua-Erie price is reliably representative of the relative changes from year to year of the price of the bulk of eastern grapes. Prices for 1904-1926 agreeing reasonably closely with those in table 19 are given by Stover, II. J. Some Factors Affecting the Purchasing Power of Grapes. Cornell Dept. Agr. Econ. and Farm Mgt., Farm Economics No. 45: 693. June, 1927. BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 91 have both shown the same tendency to decline very rapidly, primarily because of the rapidly increasing commercial grape production. Effect of Variations in Table-Grape Supply Upon Purchasing Power. — The two curves pictured in figure 25 46 show in a striking manner that since 1910 there has hardly been an exception to the rule that when shipments of table-grape varieties have risen above normal, purchasing power per ton has fallen below normal, or that vice versa, when shipments have fallen below normal, purchasing power has risen above normal. The inverse correlation between shipments of Califor- nia table grapes and their purchasing power as pictured in this figure is — ■ 0.823, indicating that 66 per cent of the variation in the purchas- ing power of table grapes can be accounted for by changes in ship- ments. This relationship is of considerable practical importance as a basis for forecasting what the price in a given season is likely to be as soon as estimates of probable production for that season are available. 47 Table Varieties Fluctuate Together. 48 — The purchasing power of each of the four most important table varieties is shoAvn separately in the four curves in the upper right hand corner of figure 26. The three upper lines which run so close together represent Malagas, Tokays, and Cornichons. The differences in the prices of the three have been very small compared with the differentials between wine varieties. Since 1921 Tokays have brought the highest average price in every year but one, and Malagas the lowest in all but two years. The fact that a large proportion of Malagas are shipped as juice stock probably accounts in part for their lower average price, since the quality of juice stock is, on the whole, lower than that of table stock. 46 Data plotted in figure 25 are percentage deviations from a line of trend fitted to the data from which table-grape shipments in table 8, page 46, were derived and from a simple average of the purchasing power of Malaga-Tokay grapes, 1910-1925, given in col. 17, table 18, page 86. 47 The commercial value of better price forecasting is so obvious that there is no doubt that those interested in the grape industry will appreciate the desirability of fostering intensive studies of the factors that influence grape prices. Califor- nia Experiment Station Bulletin 419 on the ''Economic Aspects of the Cantaloupe Industry, ' ' recently completed by Emil Kauchenstein of the Division of Agricul- tural Economics, illustrates the practical possibilities of measuring the factors determining the prices of perishable commodities. Dr. Kauchenstein has computed two regression equations. One makes it possible to forecast with considerable accuracy next year 's probable cantaloupe acreage in the Imperial Valley on the basis of this year 's average cantaloupe prices. The other enables shippers at any given time during the shipping season to forecast the probable wholesale price in New York City of Imperial Valley cantaloupes for the following week on the basis of estimated carlot receipts and. maximum temperatures in that market. 48 Lack of available data has made it necessary to omit the prices of Em- perors. The authors would appreciate being put in touch with anyone having reliable series of prices for Emperors, in crates, kegs, or drums, for any or all of the years 1910 through 1926. 92 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION I Sis J 5 \ 4 1 > \ jt '}( \ -s — 1 1 5 IE ' \ i • / / f t t / / j 0) 1 i j / ■< _ // f <* i i i \ \ [ \ \ \ 1 I 5Q § <* S3 1$. ! \ i eg, 1 BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 93 Raisin Varieties. — The curves of the purchasing power of Muscats and Thompson Seedless, shown in the lower left-hand corner of figure 26, are much flatter than those for wine and table varieties. Likewise, there seems to be no apparent tendency for either one uniformly to bring more than the other. In some years Muscats have been higher in average price than Thompson Seedless, and in other years the reverse has been true. Very few fresh raisin grapes were shipped to eastern markets before 1917, and hence the curve of raisin purchasing power, in figure 29, page 104, is the only indication of the trend of growers' returns prior to 1917. The curve in the lower right-hand corner of figure 26 showing the purchasing power of fresh raisin grapes brings out the fact that, of the three classes of grapes, raisin grapes have been the lowest in price in every year from 1917 to date. The relative flatness and smoothness of the raisin curve shows that fluctuations in the average annual price of raisin grapes have been smaller than have those in the prices of wine and table grapes. The differences in the price of Muscats and of Thompson Seedless, when averaged, have made a smoother curve than for either variety alone. From 1917 through 1923 the annual average f.o.b. California purchasing power per ton of fresh raisin grapes varied between $30 and $40, and for four years during this period it held steadily above $35. For the last three years it has been between $15 and $20 a ton only, in purchasing power, which, at the prevailing general price level, has meant an approximate f.o.b. price of between $25 and $30 a ton. 49 Wine Varieties Fluctuate Together, with Alicante Highest. — With but few exceptions, the prices of each of the five chief wine-grape varieties, plotted in the upper left-hand corner of figure 26, have in general fluctuated up and down together. Alicante Bouschet, how- ever, have consistently commanded a rather large differential over the other wine varieties. In 1922 this variety returned in purchasing power per ton over $25 more than the wine variety bringing the next 49 The following quotation from the Associated Grower (6 8 : 28, August, 1924) gives a basis for a rough comparison of returns for fresh raisin grapes with those from the raisins. ' ' About four tons of grapes having 24 per cent sugar will make one ton of raisins, if they are properly cured. If you are considering selling fresh, you must not forget the sugar percentage factor. If you pick your grapes and sell them when they have only 18 or 20 per cent sugar, it may take about five tons fresh to equal one ton cured; in other words, the five tons left on the vines until they had 24 per cent sugar would make nearly a ton and a quarter of raisins. "In the matter of cost of harvest, it costs just about the same [probably some- what more] to pick and deliver four tons of fresh grapes as it does to pick, turn, stack, box and haul one ton of raisins, so that four tons of fresh grapes with 24 per cent sugar sold at $20 a ton would bring you as much as 4 cents a pound for raisins. If you pick them with 18 to 20 per cent sugar and sell them for $20 per ton, they would net you about the same as 3^ cents a pound for raisins." 94 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION highest price. High returns to the grower of Alicante Bouschet have led to a more rapid increase in the production and shipments of this variety than of other wine varieties, 50 and as a result the price premium on this variety is tending to decrease. In 1926 Alicantes brought only about $10 a ton more than Carignanes, which, judging by its usual price, is the variety next in public favor for juice pur- poses. Figure 26 shows that the eastern delivered-auction prices of wine and table grapes have moved up and down together rather consistently since 1917. The price of wine grapes has averaged above that of table grapes in every year since 1917. The rapid increase in ship- ments of wine-grape varieties in the last few years, however, will probably result in their price falling to about that of table-grape varieties within the next few years. In comparing the f.o.b. price and purchasing power of wine and table-grape varieties it should be remembered that the cost of packing wine grapes in the field is substantially lower than the cost of packing table grapes in crates in the packing house. Some estimate that it costs $10 or $12 per ton more for the package and packing of table grapes in lidded crates than for the package and packing of wine grapes in unlidded lugs in the field. As a result, returns per ton to the grower at the ranch for wine grapes in lugs compared with table grapes in crates is more favorable by $10 or $12 than a comparison of the f.o.b. prices of wine grapes in lugs and table grapes in crates would indicate. A comparison of the pre-war farm price and purchasing power per ton of wine grapes with those during the peak of high prices since the war makes it clear why California's plantings and ship- ments of wine grapes have been so greatly increased in the last few years. It is estimated 51 that the average farm price and purchasing power of wine grapes in California from 1909 to 1916 was approxi- mately $10 per ton. The highest annual average price since the war is estimated at about $80 per ton in 1921, and of purchasing power over $50 per ton in terms of dollars of pre-war value. Returns to growers of Alicante Bouschet, it must not be forgotten, were much greater than even these high averages, in many instances almost beyond belief. The average estimated farm price of California wine grapes for the last eight years has been about $60 a ton, which has 50 For discussion see page 48. si Estimates of farm prices for the years 1909-1918 are- the authors' and for 1919-1926 are those of the California Crop Eeporting Service. See California Crop Report for 1925, Calif. Dept. Agr. Spec. Pub. 63: 27. 1926, and Preliminary Summary of California Annual Crop Report for 1926: 3 (mimeo.) Jan. 5, 1927. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 95 had a purchasing power equivalent of three or four times the average returns from 1909 to 1917. The average farm price of California table varieties for the same eight years has been about $50, or somewhat less than that of wine varieties. The farm price of table grapes has, however, fallen much lower than that of wine grapes in the last few years. Estimates indicate that in 1925 the farm price of wine varieties averaged about $60, and in 1926 about $45, whereas table varieties averaged only between $20 and $25 a ton in these two years. PRICE OUTLOOK AND PROBLEMS OF ADJUSTMENT Forecast of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. — The con- clusions drawn from this study regarding the outlook for the United States grape industry are emphasized by those in the Agricultural Outlook for 1927, 52 which states that "grape production is expected to continue heavy, and it would seem unwise to set out new vineyards except where conditions are extremely favorable." In California "prospective production from vineyards which have not reached full bearing is so great .... that the problem of finding a satisfactory market during the next few years will probably continue difficult." Danger of Judging the Future by the Present. — Both the high prices and the high purchasing power of grapes from 1919 through 1922 were largely responsible for undue expansion of grape acreage and production. With low prices and purchasing power of grapes in the past two years, the industry is reaping the effects of heavy plantings made during this period of high prices. The facts indicate that, at a time of abnormally high prices or purchasing power, it is likely to prove unprofitable to growers to expand acreage which will not come into full-bearing until several years in the future, when market prices are likely to be depressed by an increased harvest from young vines coming into bearing. It is obvious that because prices were high in 1921 was no reason to conclude that they would be high four or five years hence. Thousands, however, must have planted grape vines in 1921 on the assumption that grape prices were not likely to be much lower when these vines came into bearing. 53 52 U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ. Staff. The agricultural outlook for 1927. U. S. Dept. Agr., Misc. Cir. 101: 4, 34. February, 1927. 53 In 1921 E. L. Nougaret, Viticulturist in the California Department of Agri- culture, pointed out the serious probability of unprontably low prices for raisin and table grapes in the near future as a result of rapidly expanding production and the small likelihood of a corresponding increase in demand. (Status of the California Grape Industry, June 30, 1921, pp. 14-22, 1922.) 96 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Heavy Supplies of Fruit Consistently Tend to Depress Prices. — The dominant influence of heavy supplies upon the market prices of fruit is strikingly illustrated by the results of available analyses of the statistics of the California fruit industry. That California raisin prices tend to be low in years when supplies are large and high when supplies are relatively small, is shown by figure 30, page 106. The data pictured in figure 30, page 106, indicate that about 66 per cent of the fluctuations in the purchasing power of California table grapes are due to decreases or increases in market supplies. Rauchenstein 54 has found a close correlation between New York prices of cantaloupes and weekly average carlot receipts. Approximately 88 per cent of the variations in average weekly prices for the years 1921 to 1926 are apparently accounted for by these factors. How closely the price of all fruits is apparently affected by the production of all fruits is well illustrated by the statistics of California's fruit and nut industry. Preliminary computations by Rauchenstein indicate that in the last eight years, 1919-1926, about 86 per cent of the variation in the annual average purchasing power per ton of all California fruits and nuts can be accounted for by changes in total state production of these crops. A knowledge of such relationships is of the greatest practical value as a basis for stabilizing an industry. It makes it possible, as soon as estimates of probable production are available, to forecast with a considerable degree of success what the price is likely to be in any particular season and, on the basis of such forecasts, to adjust farm management and marketing practices to make the most of the fore- casted situation. Likewise, by enabling one to see more clearly the probable effect of future increases in supply upon future prices, it provides a basis of forecasted facts of sufficient definiteness to justify their use by growers and others in making adjustments in production or marketing by which they can make the most of the unfavorable financial outlook which many growers of California fruits appar- ently face in the next few years. The results of the studies mentioned indicate a marked tendency for the purchasing power of most California fruits to fall appreciably as the result of significant increases in supply. The seriousness of this close inverse relationship between variations in California's fruit output and the prices received by growers is evident when' one con- siders the fact that the bearing acreage of all fruits and nuts in the state, including grapes, increased about 68 per cent from 1919 to 1926 and in 1929 promises to be probably 85 per cent greater than in 1919. 54 See page 91. Bul. 429 ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 97 Pelo~rfv& Perch os/'ncp Po\~/&r of~ Ch/e-f Form Produces oF Cal/Ybrnia <5rape- Producing SecF/'ons _, 1919 ~ I9Z6. Swine 60 ft ? n N "> 1 J> « N <$ Cy ^ *\ •*< .— »»(V A >++^ **2* Pr oduc -/■/'on ^ *^n 09 /O II JZ 13 14- 15 16 17 18 19 ZO Zf ZZ Z3 Z4- Z Fig. 30. — Raisin prices tend to be low when production is large and vice versa, except when other important influences such as heavy carryovers upset the market. (Calculated from data in tables 21 and 27, pp. 105 and 124, by method described in Mill, F. C. Statistical method: 154-158. Holt and Co., New York. 1924.) in a striking way the fact that violent price changes in one direction are very likely to result in violent swings in the other direction. Going into an industry because prices are very high is more than likely to bring disappointment, particularly in the fruit industry. World Conditions Determine California's Raisin Market. — The market for raisins, unlike that for many other fruits, is world-wide. California's raisins are, therefore, sold at a price largely determined by world conditions of supply and demand. Although California is the only raisin-producing state in the Union, and by far a larger BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OP THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 107 producer than any separate country, her output in recent years has probably not been over 40 per cent of the world output of raisins and currants. These conditions make it necessary for our raisin-grape grower to consider carefully the world-wide status of the raisin indus- try in arriving at reasonable conclusions in regard to expanding or contracting production and in determining the amount of effort which should be devoted to extending both domestic and foreign markets. Status and Outlook of the World Raisin Market Is Unfavorable. — The very rough estimates of world production of raisins which are available indicate that the average total world output of raisins and currants in recent years has been about 500,000 tons. 59 Compared with the approximate average pre-war output, world production has increased about 25 per cent. Data regarding the world situation of, and outlook for, the raisin industry are rather meagre and of doubtful accuracy. However, an analysis based upon these data appears to warrant the conclusion that a normal world crop of raisin grapes in the next few years is not likely to be smaller than the average produc- tion of recent years and may be even greater. The British Imperial Economic Committee apparently holds a similar belief when it states that "the surplus output from California threatens to keep prices depressed for some time to come. Therefore those producers, whether within or without the Empire, who produce fruit of substantially the same quality as California cannot reasonably hope for satisfactory returns during the next few years. ' ' 60 Higher Prices Chiefly Dependent on Reduced Production. — It is difficult to concur with the British Committee in its apparent implica- tion that California alone is responsible for the world surplus of raisins which is depressing prices, since a considerable expansion of the industry has taken place outside of California. It would seem, however, that its emphasis on increased production as the chief cause of low raisin prices is fundamentally sound, and that a reduction of the world 's output of raisins and currants is necessary if substantially higher prices are to be expected. Since California is producing about 40 per cent of the world output, if such a decrease is necessary, a part of it should probably take place in California. 59 Eeliable statistics on raisin and currant production are unavailable in most foreign producing countries. The estimates of world production by countries used here are based on data supplied by the United States Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce and the United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics. See also Sun-Maid Business, Oct. 15, 1924, p. 9. so Great Britain, Imperial Economic Committee. Beport on the marketing and preparing or market of foodstuffs produced in the overseas parts of the Empire, Third Beport— Fruit : pp. 171-172. 1926. 108 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Rapid Expansion of Australian Raisin Production. — The question of reduction in acreage and production in California is further sug- gested by the fact that Australia is trying to appropriate California's British raisin business. Since the war, Australia's production of raisins and currants has increased very rapidly and is now three times its pre-war output. Her average production of raisins in recent years is about 40,000 tons, which is nearly large enough to replace all of California's exports to Canada and the British Isles. Likewise a further "considerable increase in production .... may be expected from the vines already planted." 01 In addition, great potential in- creases in production on newly developed irrigation projects are possible in both Australia and South Africa, under adequate financial stimulus. Canadian and English Preferential Tariffs Favor Australia. — The menace of Australia's rapidly increasing output to California's raisin growers is not fully driven home until it is understood that Australia has recently consummated commercial treaties with both Canada and England, whereby Australian raisins may be imported into these countries with no import duty whatever, while importations of Cali- farnia raisins into Canada are taxed 3 cents a pound and into England 1.7 cents. 62 The extent to which Australia has succeeded to date in capturing British markets is shown by the fact that her exports of raisins and currants into the United Kingdom almost doubled from 1923 to 1925, increasing from 14,600 tons to over 23,000. 63 In 1924 and 1925 she supplied almost one-third of the total raisin imports into the British Isles, whereas before the war she contributed less than 1 per cent. 64 In view of the fact that, of the one-fourth of Cali- fornia's output which it has been necessary to export in the past four years, the British have taken over 70 per cent, any substantial expan- sion of Australian sales in England may be of considerable significance to Californians. Keener Competition from Other Foreign Countries. — Increasingly keen competition with foreign raisin and currant producers is being felt not only from Australia, but also from nearly every one of five other important competitors — Greece, Persia, Smyrna, Spain, and South Africa. One or two of these countries have increased their si Op. tit., p. 170. 62 U. S. Dept. Agr. Foreign Crops and Markets 11: 939. Sept. 21, 1925. 03 U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign News on Fruit F. S. F.-12 (mimeo.) Dec. 17, 1925. C4 Great Britain, Imperial Economic Committee. Report on the marketing and preparing for market of foodstuffs produced in the overseas parts of the Empire, Third Report— Fruit, p. 169. 1926. BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 109 raisin and currant output slightly in recent years, although the trebling of production in California and Australia has largely been responsible for the 25 per cent post-war increase in world production. Each of these countries, however, feels keenly the necessity for greater sales effort to maintain its share of the world's trade. Profiting by the example of Sun-Maid's very effective sales campaigns in recent years, nearly every one of them has undertaken, or is preparing to launch, organized effort to improve the quality of its product and to increase the effectiveness of distribution. 65 Increasing Exports and Decreasing Imports. — In spite of a greatly increased consumption of raisins in the United States during the last four years, importations of foreign raisins and currants have declined markedly until the annual average has been but slightly over 12,000 tons — not quite 70 per cent of pre-war imports. (See fig. 29 and table 27, p. 104.) California raisin growers, on the other hand, have multiplied their pre-war exports by almost five, in addition to supplying the greatly increased home consumption. During this time an average of over 54,000 tons of California raisins have moved each year to foreign markets. Practically one-fourth of our total produc- tion is now exported, whereas only 15 per cent of a much smaller output went abroad before the war. (See fig. 29 and table 27, p. 104.) Increasing Difficulty of Expanding Foreign Markets. — The notable increase in California's raisin exports in the last five years should not be looked upon by producers as warranting expansion of production in the belief that further extension of foreign markets on any con- siderable scale is likely to be brought about profitably. Sales efforts which have lead to an effective expansion of foreign demand for California raisins, 66 are meeting constantly keener competition and resistance abroad, for reasons which have already been mentioned. Such opposition is likely to mean that continued endeavor and expense will be necessary merely to maintain our present foreign markets, and that proportionately greater effort will be required if a stronger foothold is to be had in many of the best European markets. 65 Op. cit. p. 163-187, and various numbers in recent years of Foreign Crops and Markets, a mimeographed weekly publication of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture, and Foodstuffs 'Bound the World: Dried and Canned Fruits, a mimeographed weekly publication of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, U. S. Department of Commerce. 66 See Sun-Maid Business, April 15, 1926 : 1, 4, 12 ; Aug. 15, 1926 : 1, 12 and Sunland Sales Cooperative Association Yearbook, 1926: 6-7, 13, for outstanding accomplishments in expanding foreign markets for Sun-Maid raisins. 110 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Preparation of the bulletin has been greatly facilitated by the generous assistance of many individuals and organizations. Included among those who have given liberally of their time and data are the Divisions of Crop Estimates, of Fruits and Vegetables, and of Statis- tical and Historical Research, of the Bureau of Agricultural Econom- ics of the United States Department of Agriculture; the Bureau of the Census, and the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, of the United States Department of Commerce ; the Interstate Commerce Commission; the California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service; many of the county horticultural commissioners ; and R. L. Nougaret, formerly Viticulturist of the California State Department of Agri- culture; the Southern Pacific, and the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe railroads; the Pacific Fruit Express, the Santa Fe Refrigerator Dispatch, and the American Railway Express companies ; the Califor- nia Wine Association; the Stewart Fruit Company, the California Fruit Exchange, the California Fruit Distributors, the Sun-Maid Raisin Growers of California, the California Growers' and Shippers' Protective League, the Canners' League of California, Libby, McNeil and Libby, the California Packing Corporation, the Agricultural Department of the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce, and the American Bottlers of Carbonated Beverages ; editors of the California Fruit News, the California Grape Grower, The Grape Belt, The Beverage Journal, and the Pacific Bottler ; and Mr. A. B. Humphrey, Mrs. H. W. Bartell, Mr. Eugene G. Cutter, and Mr. Geo. E. Day. Among the members of the University Staff, the authors acknowl- edge helpful suggestions from Professors F. T. Bioletti, W. V. Cruess, and from Dr. H. R. Wellman, Mr. L. W. Fluharty, Mr. H. R. Keller, and Mr. J. H. Irish. Within the Division of Agricultural Economics, valuable suggestions were received from Dr. H. E. Erdman and Dr. Emil Rauchenstein. Assistance in statistical computations was ren- dered by Miss Ruth McChesney, Statistical Assistant; Miss Gladys E. Platts, Statistical Clerk; and Mr. Ansel P. Darr, formerly student assistant. The figures were drafted by Mrs. Frances E. Sorrell. Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 111 APPENDIX OF TABLES TABLE 22 Estimated California Wine Grape Production, by Uses, 1899-1918 Crop utilization Production equivalent of fresh fruit Vintage year Dry wine Sweet wine Brandy Fresh ship- ments Dry wine Sweet wine Brandy Fresh ship- ments Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gals. Gals. Proof gals. Cars Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons 1899 15,000,000 13,000,000 33,600,000 18,500,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 29,000,000 26,800,000 27,700,000 33,900,000 27,400,000 26,000,000 25,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 26,300,000 21,571,000 23,000,000 20,020,000 25,000,000 7,211,280 7,872,756 7,977,878 13,762,863 11,628,362 11,263,251 9,824,847 13,282,887 14,057,111 12,235,307 15,408,846 15,933,511 19,997,490 15,257,269 14,857,271 14,377,034 11,914,575 17,599,916 15,001,466 6,324,044 3,061,363 3,257,631 3,576,879 5,771,400 4,543,413 4,653", 141 3,889,267 5,462,052 6,433,411 5,971,171 7,170,212 7,316,488 8,721,693 7,472,562 6,765,119 7,906,380 3,779,532 7,871,759 5,295,952 1,765,906 100,000 86,667 224,000 123,333 106,667 120,000 193,333 178,667 184,667 226,000 182,667 173,333 166,667 146,667 166,667 175,333 143,807 153,333 133,467 166,667 48,075 52,485 53,186 91,752 77,522 75,088 65,499 88,553 93,714 81,569 102,726 106,223 133,317 101,715 99,048 95,847 79,431 117,333 100,010 42,160 87,468 93,075 102,197 164,897 129,812 132,947 111,122 156,059 183,812 170,605 204,863 209,043 249,191 213,502 193,289 225,897 107,987 224,907 151,313 50,454 235,543 1900 232,227 1901 379,383 1902 379,982 1903 .... 314,231 1904 . 328,035 1905 369,954 1906 423,279 1907 462,193 1908 478,174 1909 490,256 1910 488,599 1911 549,175 1912 461,884 1913 459,004 1914 497,077 1915 1916 1917 1918 750 835 4,000 6,000 10,500 11,690 56,000 84,000 341,725 507,263 440,790 343,281 Sources of data: Col. 1. All data, except where noted, are for the 12 months ending June 30 of the year following that indicated in col. 1. Col. 2. Years 1899-1912 and 1914 compiled from Calif. State Brd. Agr. Statistical Reports for the years 1912-1915. Years 1913, 1915, and 1916 compiled from State Brd. Viticultural Commissioners, Buls. 1-10, 1914-1918. Years 1917-1918 from Nougaret, R. L., Status of California grape industry, June 30, 1922. Calif. Dept. Agr., Spec. Pub. 28:15. 1922. Col. 3. Includes only the amount of dry wine used before fortification. Years 1900-1918 compiled from U. S. Commissioner of Internal Revenue, Annual Reports 1900-1918. Year 1915 also includes an estimate of 6 million gallons of sweet wine made by a process not requiring fortification; data from State Board of Vit. Comms. Bul. 6:9, April 5, 1916. Col. 4. Total brandy produced in California. All data compiled from U. S. Comm. of Int. Revenue Annual Reports 1900-1918. Col. 5. Total interstate shipments of wine grapes by calendar years compiled from the following sources: Years 1915-1916 from State Brd. Vit. Comms. Bul. 6:8, April 5, 1916, and Bul. 8:1, Feb. 15, 1917. Years 1917-1918 from Nougaret, R. L., Status of California grape industry, June 30, 1922, p. 16. 1922. Col. 6. Data in col. 2 divided by 150. Col. 7. Data in col. 3 divided by 150. Col. 8. Data in col. 4 divided by 35. Col. 9. Total of cols. 6, 7, and 8. The tonnage of wine grapes unharvested and those dried and converted into unfermented juice are not included in this estimate because of the lack of continuous series of satisfactory estimates. These estimates include a varying and, at times, considerable tonnage of lower grade raisin and table grapes used in the manufacture of wine and brandy. 112 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION ent of city's aads ied by states ^irtt©-^t^05CMeoc»ioiowoo©-H _H l-l iH i-l *— 1 n H CNCCiHCO-HCMi-lC® CO •«* C* *~l M U5 M O _-=i— ' 0) Per each un supp thes S3 '3 u o p fi « m NtJINrtHHMNSOilNOlOlOHNOlOSOINH^NlO Q 4) 0) O o3 o t-e»»«a»oi-iiflo^Ht^oot^t>^HCNOi-irtioooo^»ooc«O>O^O2O00C00aOO00C»Tf m OS ©ea©o^^©coco^eocbcO'-<0'**< ootiH •* _ _ ^ eo 03 Li A ,H O S 3 Cm £ 03 T3 H8)^NNh*NNNONO>HN«NmilOOHOHraOOHeO O«NU»C^l(Me»CC'-H-^00OOO5OC000T-H00lCTf<0»t~-'-l05lC«0 03 ra .2 03 GO © "» t> CO i-H ©_ (M Oi 05 Oi »H i-H CO rt > ■ cent o h city's nloads plied b lifornia uia<«eoot»^MMeioM'j«^* «0 tN ^H ,-1 ^ O 03 -2 CO o>Nioioo*dwdiflwt-6ficiHoooHMooHod o o e*» <*-! ta ,„ 03 a> o ooo»^oot-eoc<5«oco(Mio-Ht^-«t<-*t~t^coceO'* « CN) © ^< Cj» OS © ©» i— 1 l« Oi 00 »C W i— !MONO*OM*r- I © i— I©© g o Oh m 03 03 f N«ONlONO«tOTtl!OH[»(NO>NO'irteNc^aiO»-*t^-*ocot->cioo-Hcocoo3cocovet^t^--HOO o S OOt-OO^MN®lOr((OiO^"15NClHMHWOH'*N(SmN £ ° MM*'* Tjt M ^ ■* N N 1-1 rH t^ ^ M a o - 03 u IS a 0) g c ! •1 PC a t e •> c I < £ e it 1 of. ! a a c X P- h b | ± P- i 'Si i* M C 1 a 1 'c 1 c c c h g e X c C e '.! 1 •1 J "3 S l i e E C 1 a: "c C e a ii 1 — s P- O lis fl S E c^ « ■*' Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 113 ent of city's aads ied by states ©e*-"*ic«^»-»tf5coe > *co©©©i— i N N ^h •>»< CO ^h CM t- c* cm * ih Per c each suppl these 08 1 1 £ O +J C CO CO eot-©©r^©^Hio->*<*- ©0©«©CO©*11CNIM©©0 £ CD CD CD c3 o o «^_cj o c^tho^hoihoooc ddddoooodddd ^.„>*- CO 3 «4 CO PL| CO CJ O ,„ e3 1"S CU o OiOOt^cooocMoir^T- O^Oi-HO^t-CO-"*©©© CO en ^ieOO'-Hi-c»HOOOO ddo*H^HO©ooo©o o^i c3 n S 8 o ^ 3 P4 Pn T) eoMcO'-ioo^'H^HcMt- CMCOCMOiO»00»r-HlOi-lOCN °1 cc ^•iH M « N H CO IQ M N i-i *-t CO N ^* CM CM "a « P 3ent of city's Loads lied by fornia OOOOOINNWCSHOflO COOOCtClliOilOONOOOOl »CBOOOlOtS«JNM91 oc3iOie"t^o>o>>oa30003 ^ r-( rH r-o c a;s " ^ CO o .5-2 +^_ fl c ^MNONIONMOie HNMIflil©©©»o© Ph PL, O CO T3 Oi-lcn»Ot^^lCMOCNllO OI[-rtWH(00>WN« iOCMOOtOOCOOOOOO>'*"5 03 <*> *H010)NM»NNO!Dm .2 £ "*f eo e- ^h io -* e>» i-H cc -Hr-ie^cM eft n m h in «H pi" CM P o'S^ g • 8 tO^CMOCOOCMCO^Htfl eJiHo'o'dooo'o'a -HCMOOU»-^l»-H^(^HTt<- c« co CO 11 CD o "JISlMCOifCOCNTtlCNt" HNTfOOCONNHlOCO^iC "3 CM pj^io^Hodoooo o©o©o©«©d©o-*o a CD 3 O Pm CO T3 WMNlOiOOOtOH^N COOOCNiOOOOOi-ll>.« NWOlOWHlOOliOO^N 11 a w ijli— lOC-0200C»Ji*-«*''-HCD»C i-H t- O i— I CO CM CO i— I IN en H N « « ©_ CMCCi-HCM »h" CO cm" P "to rfl •j 8 u ■ 1 « Hi > 1 c -5 IS a cci & O CD CO a o ■I - d 1 t a < j e pq Washington, st South Cen Birmingham IE I 1 c c <7 CO S CD CD C 1 a p G CD M CC T a c c c c X ■2 h a, X j i Ph o CO CO '5 » G CD t- a ^ Per each un supp thes .5 3 **; to o ■P H B Jl lOiH00'''*00iHOO'0C0C0 C o> a; o> is o OlOe^CNOrHO^t^Ot^t-(NiCO>-HO-*OCNlC-Hr-usTtJ^^cc^P50^cooaJ^Hioqcoo^©co^ooerjc»c»02roc>qc»co<6'#a5co'~-.oot~ 03 <» N Ol IB f CI 51 N^iOH^lHrtiNO N W O 91 »I^^H O CO i-H i-H p» Tt< CO t*< © >— I CO t-i r^r^.-*t- o c© oo CI9l»IOl01»IO01Cnaj|»CINI»0001C»0S00M»0iO>31N00 r>. "* o gjg 1 -^_'S fl «O^COOO«0»HOcC>0-H^'ltTHC-«^Hus^Hoo"*e«0'*ocoO'-'0»-H*ooo'»-too o oo t-i us co es t-i 03 TJ IO(i)TjOTfMO)NlOHH»- IOCOO"OTt-»»*cNr^T)lil50001'*C»0!D"5«0'C000t^.THOO>OIMC0 ^•oocN-rii'or^oooaiaiCfiiococMoo i/ii—ioOT-^iocooocot-i |8 P rH irfofufu^" oo" cJ t- »* e» ea el »-I co e*T w •# c* i-i t-i a .2 ■3 J! i 'a 13 a o3 M Ofl o CD 3 c H I 1 b E w PC i e 1 ■O PC I > a |z 03 IS x a b 11 13 ± Ph P- I 1 i 'c i- p c "C a c Eh c b i X 03 o d - 03 | II • >> SMC 3 00 §■-3 i ^ o pi S A * c c - c\ c^ * Btjl. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 115 cent of . city's loads lied by e states 0> OM O Si -* en eo OS em co CM o b- e-j T1 o o *^ »-l CM ^H «>» CM ic , ja a a« 'S u £i 3 H «-• m o •+J B 0] CO 0*»o»-<»-j^'~io<©'«*«ocoooa3cooooo O>eooavi^o>aio5oocno5a50t-t^a30>->!tiai0500 t~ ^H rH »-l *H . -B cs a^B ll = |(3 o M9 -^-, B C [■•jiiNont'NwiNieHiNWTjnHHH^iooow c3 'S O e^»n'oooooooooooooousooocoo O d o a PL, U oo o .3 m lOO)MCO'*09N'*(NOONN-*(O^NMHiOh.lolo o B eOiHO^OOOOOOOOOOOOt-000>00 h B * a *3 C Ph ° *d ^HOJOffi^NfllOOSKilOitOIOeONlOOiOlINN ftOlNlOHWHHHMOrtNONMNWtDNOOlO 11 B » -*< WOHCN^HINH^ h N Ol N CO IN M OO N rt rt CO CM P o'S.S "S3 § i • a w e^iHoooooooooooooo«*ooocco co 3 o->,_ - _d fJHp-g <« * co (0ONWlO00N , *N00NN'(OOOOt-000"50 a o5 3 2 Ph R 2,077 1,133 129 720 284 498 124 241 133 446 97 122 227 385 299 86 3,888 71 289 388 2,882 258 11 '- p § b "3 •a ■> *3 o a 0) rifi fl >> c t- .e e c ! 5 < E « j < a s- I c PC Washington, st South Cen Birmingham « 1 o *S c --§* SI is CO C nj 0) 5 e O Si a c 05 1 1 ■i J g| B B b a as O r>2 i-} |£ £ fc s £ p * 1 <£ r>^ oc a 116 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION ^ „ i>> CO **; co ^> cu cent i cits load: lied e sta w ie m w w M — !«I^COift^lCOOcOeOOO(MCT)(MOCB<— I^HOSCO g r-t iH tH »-i o | » -U K CO CO C* >* 00 o oc «* C MiOiOO«0)OiiOCOh»'*N«JNON<000 g 4) 0) J) 03 o o mi •* •>* c to o oosoot^oJ^oo^ooJoui^oo^rto o t© IA c* ,H u Sti co 3 c;^ o co Ph CO y- 1 >h »-( e>» «-< P nt of ity's ids d by rnia US * t- 00 oc 0O 00 CO 00 1 - oo a oo - lOoo-^ioto-'tiO'itii^cMoor-iooo^HOsas^Ht^ C3S03I^COt-»OOit~-OOOOt^t^T+lC»C35a3COiC»A a> o £ ^ o t~ "Jcas J8I-HS o .3 3 ^_ c c fll U) N CD « oo o MN^OMlSCeMnHHCNONlflMOO^N CO CM OS 2 '3 o o3 O Per cen total Califor shipme CO o es r- co c t- to co C ecr^iccoeooi-iocNOi^o^HNOOOOC) CM i-l o 03 s +^ '3-§ Ort rt W« iH CC NCNfflWCONfflCONNCeM^iHNrllNiaW o Per cen total Califor unloai as O 00 © OS c 8 " ^llONiioOOMOMOOOHw'oOHOci CO iH CO T3 IS M CO IN C tf * H N Cf S 2 comiotMoncMOcoooi^-'tir^irstooiococoaj N^iliONONOiOIXINCllCNnCOMNil rt T |in as a- e« cc ^Ht^»0cO0>O^CO»O00t^C«3'*IC»U5 ^ C 03 CM o oo o> 00 c m ■»ti-*OOlOO^HCMOOOOOOCMCOCZ>O^HCOO CO M i-H s ""2 cu 3 ""* O PL, CO T3 oo oo co - i- ■* a- IOCOOr^CO(M->*COCMa>'-llOCOCOCMCMCM c8 « e* co oo t- c o\ 00_ C* I-- IT. CO C cokCcooo>cocnooi^o«coooi^'^ico -lt—-^* G 'to 1 1 s a 03 bJO O 0> 3 c 4 H I ■5 9 I PC a c c ■> i p. CO •o cc k c- e a Iz 3 a tu \ * 13 .t Ph p- 1 £ « c 1 E 1 s "5 c '5 \- c c c h c to i s sst North Ce: Kansas City. I CO I- 03 5 v o: o If A g d ^ - cs <^ ■* Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 117 ent of city's aads ied by states ^HU»COCMlO«OOOTf»0'-^cco^-*"5e^>-i-a5oe-co'#ooo (J 4) J) J) O S|5| o COC^O^OtHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO d *5o X> Oh m >h r- ii-HtecDoe^-^t^oO'-H J^ OS iflieoo^rtiHoododdd^rHO^HOoooo o-=i d t- fi a o HI 3 & CO 03 J i©e>»oooocD©05cc>m«#oo-Hio*-i©'— i o» "5 »o co o c© eot- ioo«* »ot^e^ ~h m m « co ira ^S 00 "* M rH rH TH »1 ^H a « !=> <*H >> | 1 «»<(IOOlO#d "d o Ph on ° -9- s s— g^ 5 laoOMNnOON^NaNNlOOOtONieOtOCCON o S5 o g i» eo^-tdi-iododdoodooodt-ooddo £ ^ *"~3 s Ph o CO T3 U)NI»MrtN»HMiHT(ISOOp » C la a 03 M o V p c < c c- < I e PC Washington, st South Cen Birmingham I 1 co C 03 CD !i 1 o OJ $ (X! X a e c- 1 4 5 1 S | 03 O o |£ 1 fc£ S (2 c « CC t>-* EX c 118 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION M •«*< ao e a ^ © CO to § O CO t-a. OS acH o 05 o o e» a, iH fl j s M | OO eq -H r- o 05 -H o to CO OS t^ ta. O to 5 to pa CO -H^ 0> H •* US lO lO CO l^ CO faO 9 H q AS 1 -# ^ a* lO ,_, S3 Ho es -* CO ■<*< CO CO CO ■* ■* US US US '3 u o to q 13 k LO CO ,_, r^ CO C~ CN ^H O t- -TO a oo ■CO CO i-l lO N Ol o la q ^< 1* -tl CO ~F t*< lO CO CO US 1? H ta « i?§ -2 t- CO S3 co ■HH •>!*< ^ CO CO CO s o C - oa os cr o> «is '-0 CI O o o c a CD a> o3 ~S 0H £ q (3 43 -2 oc r^ ■o oa O co »ra 00 a* a$< CO us OO M t^ o c- Ol o — « co CO O] CO US US a* '53 © to q "3 V. 00 CO SO in to CO o- -# ■* CO o c co us «o ON GO t^ CM in oj n o US 00 CC ie l>- oc CO CO i-H go o o a iH CN Cs) (M 4§ 1 s CO to lO CO CO CC CM CO CO o o t^ CO co it O -H O £ -3 OS w •* -I* CO co co ■* •* * oj o3 Is a 09 tf S q 03 43 1 l~ tr. ■o >e ■o -tfl oc CM) 00 CO ti bC »-l ts ■^ -* CO CO t^ "3 OO -H i- ^i ^H t-( to 1 13 o £ to co CO o CO co ej- O0 ^ 00 t^ 1 to 5 t^ CO lO o a us u: US CC •HH 00 CO CO t^ .o O O lO CO CO us i- o US o a oj o3 co r^ r^ l~- <= us 00 us 5 03 5 5 as cr c- oc OO CO CO Ph S3 q 1—1 5 «0 § 8 c c cr O Q C O cr tH CC o oo o CM '-I OO '53 CI en oc s C7 OS a*< U- CO ^H CO (H 5 en •>* cr as t^ OC CO i-l a* MH C5 CO CO CO o tN CO CO •* US T^ a Tt" M OS fl, T-i hi 1 h* s> « O T-t a cr CO CM CM co co Q ft as > iH c« a e g! OO O CM <0 <= CM CM a 5 a a co co co 0) 1> Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 119 1 •>* ■M s 03 g OO S N N m © Oi Oi O CM CM © CM CO o Oi to * ^ o ft, Oi 01 M H 03 i>§ u V © O •— i CO co Oi lO O0 lO oj *■« '.3 u © »— 1 © Oi Oi Oi > oj "3 tf S3 S ft, += (X Xi S O H3 U3 CO Oi CM © Oi Oi O CM CO N tjH H5 r^ u I-- t^ lO u ■- 1 h ,H _, ,_, ,-H ^H rH .-( £ ft, 13 o s. (D H T)( H 00 •* © © CO CO B n c h m h n 00 O CM tO N to G H I •II 00 © Oi CM CO CO Oi t*< r^ ■* o © © u J « Oi Oi OO OO OO o> U3 © o o o © o ft "o $ rt S3 Q 03 ti ja Jo 10 CM CM U3 CM 113 co co Oi bfi CO CM CM •"*< CO ■* r^ oi t-i «3 US 113 '53 3 "S (s t- i-i ■* co *# Q0 0> Oi OO O OO Oi * M H a CO lO oo o 52 ~ CO CO CO ^ ^ ^jf CO CO 113 0> "oj H a g si « N UJ H r-l M N CB N _e 00 Oi 00 O0 OO OO © o o © o o (4 CM o © o o> ft ID Oi 03 3 tf S3 q l JS « CO Oi Oi CM CO H3 r~ t* -* M »H Oi Oi CM © i-H CO lO oo CO CM CM CO -*< ■* 113 113 -^ 'S 9 £ Q O b en •<*< t*- oo oo © to ■* to O a US O t— CO CM 00 co co t-^ ■* U5 ■# ■* N N CM CO © to o o H a CM CM CM ^g 00 1 cr> ^ ^ oo oo t*« CO CO CO © U3 CM 00 00 Oi t»< 113 -* >-i VJ3 Oi CO CO CO CM CM CM CO CO CO OJ ft O q ^3 ,3 K IO lO lO >o ■* CO CM 00 CO « px, 00 a 1H 1-1 »1 i-H ■«*< ■* CO O) N o £ at oo t* t~- t- ^ CM 00 CM r^ o rt O K) N 115 (O OI O Ol » ^i ifl CO CO H3 113 CO i i-i H q e* co - O CM O 0> a; o3 5 C- 0O OO N N t- Oi Oi Oi « S3 Q 1 5 a SS88SS © 00 © CM i-c O0 '53 CM ^i cd Oi oi •* m er> t^ oi oi ir^ oc Oi f Oi S-. § Oi >-l T*t h C* CM CM CM CO CO ■* 113 •"*< d o *< t4 "c3 G '-3 a> a) «' J3 «s" J>' t-I bJD © t^ Oi r+ to "" o ^ §s Oi Oi CM CM Oi OS m cd 33 Q 2 5* ^ Oi H N OO *H «8 © "H »-i -i © CM CM CM Oi Oi u T3 t3 S3 2 'o 13 x a CJ -~ £ S 03 of « P^ -- cu O J "osi^S Tj'ftT •H g.2 e2 3 Oi 1*1 ca^ 1 S §i-l 2 ocl.t3 u02& S =« fl 2 ">*S <*4 OJ S 0^3 o IM S o o3 3 tn ^ G o3^ ^3 o £ %%> ^o» O ScM fl'SS S ^ g oi cUvG 0) O -* a>^3 tn ft a) °3 S "^ o3 G tf. T! ft o'» I- u !§2 G oo ^2 G M O 03 ^1 ■" ft Soo O CM t3 M 00 (-i aft rn ft -32 ■as T3 W, S jss £ -' r m - T3 CJO "^.h II G-SO^-O C ? - a §^ E£^ & o> "G ° °^ oo 3 ■** -° S s w "S23 S5 a 2xSo .gg >> V S3 o3 »X3' Q -0't3 . ^^a^.^-^oo .>> BS^g|2Ss5-3 s>.-l? t ghflSs.s-a !pq O^r-l MS i?G ft o ft « 03 G II s s co u . OJ ^ ft >>£« ess ft^go.ftft^^°a S | SS OX-0 03 o OX^ ftOQoojjO « •^OH-G_§OOEh «gO cm a -g -»2 0J-" 5 3) .73 . • . M 03 . .'tJ-U . . .2_, .'-(flCM'* < UJN - T3CMCO _ OUSCOOO^TJOi— l S^H^ rtrt g ,„ . .J3G - - -^C^^; ™ ■ ■ • ••8 goo^gooo-Ssoo^oo oo2 CJ tn tn „J3 S • M 3 So3 oo e3 13 +i i O-^cj £oj G^^3 02 O >> £&.5t3 S 120 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 25 Prices and Purchasing Power of California Grapes by Varieties, 1917-1926. Eastern Delivered- Auction and Estimated F.O.B. Shipping Point Gross auction price per lug Dol- lars Estimated f.o.b. shipping points Price Per lug Dol- Per net ton Dol- lars Per cent of 1919 Per cent Purchasing power Per net ton Dol- Per cent of 1919 Per cent Alicante Bouschet 1.37 .83 62.25 47.6 34.58 1.99 1.30 97.80 74.8 49.39 2.46 1.74 130.80 100.0 62.29 3.78 2.81 210.75 161.2 91.63 2.96 2.05 153.75 117.5 102.50 2.69 1.86 139.50 106.7 91.78 2.26 1.46 109.50 83.7 70.19 2.43 1.62 121.50 92.9 79.93 2.05 1.27 95.25 72.8 58.80 1.65 .89 66.75 51.0 43.34 55.5 79.3 100.0 147.1 164.6 147.3 112.7 128.3 94.4 69.6 Gross auction price per lug Dol- lars Estimated f.o.b. shipping points Price Per lug Dol- lars Per net ton Dol- Per cent of 1919 Per cent Purchasing power Per net ton Dol- lars Per cent of 1919 Per cent Carignane 1.30 1.68 2.18 3.27 2.49 1.79 2.03 2.02 1.54 1.47 .76 57.00 51.6 31.67 1.01 76.05 68.8 38.41 1.48 110.55 100.0 52.64 2.33 174.75 158.1 75.98 1.64 123.00 111.3 82.00 1.03 77.25 69.9 50.82 1.25 93.75 84.8 60.10 1.24 93.00 84.1 61.18 .79 59.25 53.6 36.57 .73 54.75 49.5 35.55 60.2 73.0 100.0 144.3 155.8 96.5 114.2 116.2 69.5 67.5 Mission Petite Sirah 1.30 1.73 1.94 3.18 2.43 1.43 1.66 1.73 1.11 1.31 .76 57.00 60.6 31.67 1.06 79.80 84.8 40.30 1.26 94.05 100.0 44.79 2.25 168.75 179.4 73.37 1.55 116.25 123.6 77.50 .69 51.75 55.0 34.05 .90 67.50 71.8 43.27 .97 72.75 77.4 47.86 .39 29.25 31.1 18.05 .58 43 50 46.3 28.25 70.7 90.0 100.0 163.8 173.0 76.0 96.6 106.9 40.3 63.1 2.29 1.79 2.93 2.16 2.04 1.46 1.75 1.44 1.27 1.58 1.12 2.02 1.30 1.26 .72 .99 .70 .54 118.80 83.55 151.50 97.50 94.50 54.00 74.25 52.50 40.50 142.2 100.0 181.3 116.7 113.1 64.6 88.9 62.8 48.5 60.00 39.79 65.87 65.00 62.17 34.62 48.85 32.41 26.47 150.8 100.0 165.5 163.4 156.2 87.0 122.8 81.5 66.5 ZlNFANDEL Average of Four Wine Varieties (Excludes Alicante Bouschet) 1.16 1.69 1.91 2.53 1.94 2.07 1.49 1.69 1.55 1.22 .63 47.25 51.5 26.25 1.02 76.80 83.7 38.79 1.23 91.80 100.0 43.71 1.65 123.75 134.8 53.80 1.10 82.50 89.9 55.00 1.29 96.75 105.4 63.65 .75 56.25 61.3 36.06 .93 69.75 76.0 45.89 .80 60.00 65.4 37.04 .50 37.50 40.9 24.35 60.1 88.7 100.0 123.1 125.8 145.6 82.5 105.0 84.7 55.7 1.25 .72 54.00 56.5 30.00 1.85 1.17 88.05 92.2 44.47 1.96 1.27 95.55 100.0 45.50 2.98 2.06 154.50 161.7 67.17 2.26 1.40 105.00 109.9 70.00 1.83 1.06 79.50 83.2 52.30 1.66 .90 67.50 70.6 43.27 1.74 .98 73.50 76.9 48.36 1.39 .65 48.75 51.0 30.09 1.32 .59 44.25 46.3 28.73 63.1 Average of Five Wine Varieties Average of Muscat and Thompson Seedless 1.28 .74 55.50 54.3 30.83 1.88 1.20 90.30 88.3 45.61 2.06 1.37 102.30 100.0 48.71 3.14 2.21 165.75 162.0 72.06 2.40 1.53 114.75 112.2 76.50 2.00 1.22 91.50 89.4 60.20 1.78 1.02 76.50 74.8 49.04 1.96 1.18 88.50 86.5 58.22 1.66 .90 67.50 66.0 41.67 1.50 .76 57.00 55.7 37.01 63.3 93.6 100.0 147.9 157.1 123.6 100.7 119.5 85.5 76.0 1.23 .70 52.50 65.2 29.17 1.52 .87 64.80 80.4 32.73 1.75 1.08 80.55 100.0 38.36 2.02 1.17 87.75 108.9 38.15 1.54 .73 54.75 68.0 36.50 1.52 .77 57.75 71.7 37.99 1.40 .66 49.50 61.5 31.73 1.11 .39 29.25 36.3 19.24 1.09 .37 27.75 34.5 17.13 1.06 .35 26.25 32.6 17.05 76.0 85.3 100.0 99.5 95.2 99.0 82.7 50.2 44.7 44.4 BUL. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY TABLE 25— (Concluded) 121 Year Gross auction price per lug Dol- lars Estimated f.o.b. shipping points Price Per lug Dol- lars Per net ton Dol- lars Per cent of 1919 Per cent Purchasing power Per net ton Dol- lars Per cent of 1919 Per cent Gross auction price per lug Dol- lars Estimated f.o.b. shipping points Price Per lug Dol- lars Per net ton Dol- lars Per cent of 1919 Per cent Purchasing power Per net ton Dol- lars Per cent of 1919 Per cent Muscat Thompson Seedless 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923. 1924 1925 1926. 1.05 .53 39.75 56.7 22.08 1.49 .84 62.55 89.3 31.59 1.59 .93 70.05 100.0 33.36 2.13 1.27 95.25 136.0 41.41 1.54 .73 54.75 78.2 36.50 1.45 .71 53.25 76 35.03 1.13 .41 30.75 43.9 19.71 1.13 .41 '30.75 43.9 20.23 1.07 .36 27.00 38.5 16.67 1.02 .31 23.25 33.2 15.10 66.2 94.7 100.0 124.1 109.4 105.0 59.1 60.6 50.0 45.3 1.40 1.55 1.90 1.91 1.54 1.58 1.67 1.09 1.10 1.09 .86 64.50 70.8 35.83 .89 67.05 73.6 33.86 1 21 91.05 100.0 43.36 1.07 80.25 88.1 34.89 .73 54.75 60.1 36.50 .83 62.25 68.4 40.95 .92 69.00 75.8 44.23 .37 27.75 30.5 18.26 .38 28.50 31.3 17.60 .37 27.75 30.5 18.02 78.1 100.0 80.5 84.2 94.4 102.0 42.1 40.6 41.6 CORNICHON 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1.33 .79 59.25 50.5 32.92 2.13 1.43 107.55 91.7 54.32 2.27 1.56 117.30 100.0 55.86 2.83 1.92 144 00 122.8 62.61 2.39 1.52 114.00 97.2 76.00 1.61 .86 64.50 55.0 42.43 1.50 .76 57.00 48.6 36.54 1.50 .76 57.00 48.6 37.50" 1.33 .60 45.00 38.4 27.78 1.27 .54 40.50 34.5 26.30 58.9 97.2 100.0 112.1 136.1 76.0 65.4 67.1 49.7 47.1 Sources of data: Col. 1. The prices of individual varieties are true or weighted seasonal average prices of daily delivered-acution sales. Averages of several varieties are simple or unweighted averages. All prices but those of Thompson Seedless are based on sales at New York City only, including Jersey City in the case of wine varieties and Muscats beginning with the 1924 season. Years 1917-1923 cover the whole shipping season through December for all varieties and are computed from daily data compiled by the Stewart Fruit Company from the New York Fruit Reporter. Thompson Seedless prices, however, for 1917-1919 are Chicago prices per crate based on the Chicago Fruit and Vegetable Reporter. Years 1924-1926 include the season's sales from August through the middle of November only. Data for years 1924-1925 are from Schultz, C. E., California Grape Deal for 1925 Season (mimeo.), and year 1926 from U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ., Daily Market Report on California Grapes (mimeo.), No. 80, p. 5. Nov. 6, 1926. Col. 2. Computed by subtracting freight and refrigeration charges (see table 24, page 118) and a sales commission of 7 per cent from the gross eastern delivered-auction price in col. 1. Col. 3. Computed from col. 2 by multiplying by 75, the approximate number of lugs of a gross weight of 30 lbs. in a short ton. Col. 5. Col. 3 divided by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics annual all-commodity wholesale price index for the U. S. as given in table 18, page 86. 122 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 26 Farm Price and Purchasing Power of Chief Farm Products of California Grape-Producing Sections, 1919-1926 Price in dollars Purchasing power Price in dollars Purchasing power Price in dollars Purchasing power Price in dollars Purchasing power Year Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 1. All Grapes 2. Table Grapes 3. Raisin Grapes 4. Wine Grapes Per ton Per ton Per cent Per ton Per ton Per cent Per ton Per ton Per cent Per ton Per ton 36 7 23.8 32.6 54.7 42.8 25.6 41.5 37.0 29.2* Per cent 1919-1925 average.. 1919 44 30 55.13 65.30 61.70 40.90 25.86 32.93 28.26 25.96* 25 6 26.2 28.4 41.1 26.9 16.6 21.7 17.4 16.9* 100 102 111 161 105 65 85 68 66* 56 75 75 80 60 40 40 20 25* 32 5 35.7 32.6 53.3 39.5 25.6 26.3 12.3 16.2* 100 110 100 164 122 79 81 38 50* 34 28 52.50 58.14 46.94 26.59 17.75 18.02 20.00 20.00* 19 4 25.0 25.3 31.3 17.5 11.4 11 8 12.3 13.0* 100 .129 130 161 90 59 61 64 67* 62 50 75 82 65 40 63 60 45* 100 65 1920 89 1921 149 1922 117 1923 70 1924 113 1925 101 1926* 80* 5. Deciduous Tree Fruits 6. Truck Crops 7. All Field Crops 8. Cotton Per v ton Per ton Per cent Per car- load Per car- load Per cent Per ton Per ton Per cent Per lb. Per lb. Per cent 1919-1925 average... 1919 63 41 87.46 86.38 60.75 59.59 39.20 56 07 54.39 45.46* 36 4 41.6 37.6 40.5 39.2 25.1 36.9 33.6 29.5* 100 114 103 111 108 69 101 92 81* 965 1,012 1,005 732 1,229 1,178 803 798 754* 570 482 437 489 809 756 528 492 489* 100 85 77 86 142 133 93 86 86* 25.72 35.91 28.44 17.60 22.47 24.05 27.56 23.98 20.78* 14 9 17.1 12.4 11.7 14.8 "15.4 18.1 14.8 13.5* 100 115 83 79 99 103 121 99 91* .26 .43 .18 .18 .26 .32 .24 .22 .14* .153 .205 .078 .120 .171 .205 .158 .136 .091* 100 134 1920 51 1921 78 1922 112 1923 134 1924 103 1925 89 1926* 59* Bul. 429] ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GRAPE INDUSTRY 123 TABLE 26— (Concluded) Price in dollars Purchasing power Price in dollars Purchasing power Price in dollar.- Purchasing power Price in dollar* Purchasing power Year Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 Dol- lars Per cent of 1919- 1925 9. Hay (tame) 10. Beans 11. Butter 12. Eggs Per ton Per ton Per cent Per 100 lbs. Per 100 lbs. Per cent Per lb. Per lb. Per cent Per doz. Per doz. Per cent 1919-1925 average.. 1919 16 17 20 11 15 14 22 14 12* 9 4 8.1 8.7 7.3 9.9 8.9 14 5 8.6 7.8* 100 86 93 78 105 95 154 91 83* 3 93 4.35 3.30 2.80 3.75 4.00 5.20 4.10 3.00* 2 34 2.07 1.43 1.87 2.47 2.56 3.42 2.53 1.95* 100 88 61 80 106 109 146 108 83* .509 .586 .625 .453 .436 .473 .471 .517 .463* .296 .279 .272 .302 .287 .303 .310 .319 .300* 100 94 92 102 97 102 105 108 101* .403 .503 .510 .397 .332 .340 .349 .390 .338* .233 .240 .222 .265 .218 .218 .230 .241 .219* 100 103 1920 95 1921 113 1922 94 1923 94 1924 99 1925 103 1926* 94* 13. Swine 14. California Farm Wages (without board) 15. Relative U. S. General Wages 16. Relative Prices of Non-Agricul- tural Commodities Per head Per head Per cent Per day Per day Per cent Per cent of June, 1914 Per cent of 1910- 1914 Per cent of 1919- 1925 Per cent of 1910- 1914 Per cent of 1910- 1914 Per cent of 1919- 1925 1919-1925 average. 1919 13 13 18.00 14.50 11.70 11.80 10.50 10.20 15.20 10.20* 7.6 8.6 6.3 7.8 7.8 6.7 6.7 9.4 6.6* 100 113 83 103 103 88 88 124 87* 3.75 3.90 4.60 3.35 3.40 4.00 3.40 3.60 3.65* 2 19 1.86 2.00 2.23 2.24 2.56 2.24 2.22 2.37* 100 85 91 102 102 117 102 101 108* 209 185 222 203 197 214 218 223 229* 124 88 96 135 130 137 143 138 149* 100 71 78 109 105 111 116 111 119* 182 199 241 167 168 171 162 165 161* 105 6 94.8 104.8 111.3 110.5 109.6 106.6 101.9 104.4* 100 90 1920 99 1921 105 1922 105 1923 104 1924 101 1925 96 1926* 99* * 1926 data are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources of data: Items 1-10 and 13-14 are the final estimated farm prices, except that those for 1926 are preliminary and are from the California Crop Report for 1925 or mimeographed preliminary reports of the California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service. Truck crops do not include onions or potatoes, which are here included among field crops. California farm wages for 1923-1926 are averages of reported wages paid to hired farm labor in July. Preceding years are an average of quarterly reports. Year 1926 from Monthly Supplement of Crops and Markets for July. Purchasing power per unit is actual price in the first column deflated or divided by the U. S. all- commodity wholesale price index for the corresponding year on a 1910-1914 base and given to the nearest tenth of a dollar only (see footnote to col. 5, table 18, p. 86). The purchasing power for each year is expressed as a percentage of the average purchasing power for the years 1919-1925. 124 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION :hgScs 3 g t ft a> S n-om JO cjuaa J8J spunoj a3^J3A13 ¥-1-0161 JO JU80 J9J spuuoj ¥1-0161 jo 'juao jaj snoj, spunod jos.000'1 aSBjaA'B ¥1-0161 jo -juao ja^ rtrHrHN-H(M( l(NINN»MNIM( 00)»( • t^CMI^^HiOCOUOCO OJ0005MOO-HNN>Ot03>atDN>OCO(N t* to -* i— i >o cm -*t< to oo r^ i m co m co as io > * Ol O) 35 N N ffi m io ■ « I ,H -h -h — < CM ^h -h CM CM CM CM ! 2 I HHiHrtiHNINHHrtNtN suox spunod jos.000'1 aS-BjaA-B ¥1-0161 jo iuao jaj suox S c 3 ft OJ § SI? >> ag^jaAB f-I-0161 jo cjuao ja j OO^CONCNI CMNnJOmf. . ■^omoiOiHiOrtMi ooeo to oo h-Teo oT-^jToT o i oioco-*cD-*i-CTt O i-H lO — O OS CM i-h O to «H h- -* Tf< -^ I •^ CO CO CM 00 CM C • CO CO CM ■ iO*tOO!DN>" " OO i— i CO 00 O CO i CO CO CM nVcoc __ niNmNHcooiONooMomtecooa) irtiONNinOCOH SUO^ aS-BjaAt; fT-0I6I jo ^uao ja j suox aS^jaA-B ¥-1-0161 jo iuao ja> ■eg- aS^jaA-B ¥-1-0161 jo cjuao jaj suox e<» mKooi i^OC)OTJ31-HMtNC<5tON!OH 00_ ■* >« l>-_CM CO -# CROO "SNOiONtONqN oo oo oT^tTt^Too co oo cioo'oKcocoO'-ia ) O0 CM lO O OO I - 1 co CO CM CM : '■^ocDOmin^ajioi "to f-Tco >C5 tOCM 00 NNNOOO' (HrtlNHrtH CM CM y-i ' ■& >o "0 CO CM CM t-h O «H O TjH CM I - i ~ . • n o co o i rHHCOlOMCOOl coioN-nsaoooO't NOiOOOSI "*NCOMNONNt001in'-i[ iir^coococooococoioooio' .— llOCOlOCCCOrtlcmCTor^,— I,— u Tfl co '-H to OS ICOOCOOOIOIOCDNCDUCIIOI NMeiONOOl^iOOOMHi CT> 0O 0O CM 00 < I i-H CO CO CM CM CO OitOCJSCMCOtOtOOOl Hr-lrtHrtiHrHINCNHOO fe<9» lCMC0-*"0tOt^00a5O^CMC0-OtO HrHrHrtHrHrtOCNCNlMlNNW I ft m ! -I oS.2 31° 2 *> fl "" aS °° O >>> 03 3 3 °.SS i^SS CM o u 2 Si O of § =3 C A HC ■•"■ O 2>Q. cy M ft s- e ' "Sii- ■ § a c4 5 fl «T) 3,=? s.r>5 Oto.^ u s a Q §3 iO^- g 3 3 ° "i."? S^3i5-:^5 "T3 =< OJ' ego. "2 -5 ft a. SSaJ o i . cmhJ A 3^ s * »s'ft cj-cs b O 2 Q. 1 SS-2 B ^h OO S ^ O.H "S 04^ji'g r O 'ft73 - 2 -j^ feubfl 2<^^ § Q a. w !^S ftr M^ ^