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 Central Mm proceedings 
 
 OUR COMMERCIAL POLICY 
 
 IN THE EAST 
 
 BV 
 
 GENERAL E, F. CHAPMAN, C.B. 
 
 LONDON 
 
 CENTRAL ASIAN SOCIETY, 22, ALBEMARLE STREET. W. 
 
 1904
 
 M(2 •■ HUh^'.Of: 
 
 Central Hsian pvoceebinos. 
 
 OUR COMMERCrAL POLICY IN THE EAST. 
 
 In placing before you this short paper, indicating the lines 
 upon which a definite commercial policy for oiir Eastern 
 Empire may be based, I do so in the hope that its con- 
 sideration by the Central Asian Society may draw public 
 attention to the great importance of our at once endeavour- 
 ing to improve our trade relations, not only as between 
 India and the adjoining countries, but also as between 
 Great Britain and all those countries in Asia in which the 
 predominance of our trade appears to be threatened. 
 
 This paper has been prepared since the formal recog- 
 nition of the Imperial obligations imposed upon India, in 
 its present stage of development, as indicated by Lord 
 Curzon's explanation of his views and by Lord Lans- 
 downe's pronouncement in Parliament on May 12 last. 
 
 The approval by the Council of a discussion of this 
 paper by this meeting is, I think I may say, something of 
 a new departure, and is a recognition of the great value to 
 the public, and I trust to the State, of the careful con- 
 sideration by such a Society as this, of matters aftecting 
 the interests of Lidia. Most of us have spent the greater 
 part of our lives in the service of our country in its 
 Eastern possessions, and may consequently be able to treat 
 of such subjects from the point of view more or less of
 
 ( -' ) 
 
 experts and ])ul)licatioii of our proceedings will, I hope, 
 tend to make our deliberations appreciated. 
 
 My thanks are due to Lord Lamington, whose absence I 
 much regret ; for not only has he taken a close interest in 
 the outline I have endeavoured here to sketch, but last 
 July, by his kind hospitality, a number of us were enabled 
 to meet and to exchange ideas on the subject. We agreed 
 unanimously that, unless a definite policy, based on such 
 wide and solid considerations as to be independent of party 
 politics, could be adopted by Government, all attempt to 
 obtain increased facilities for our commerce must fail. 
 
 I should here like to say that, it seems to me to be of 
 the greatest importance that^ the history and geograpliy of 
 the countries adjoining our Indian Empire, as well as a 
 record of our trade relations with them, should ])e made 
 available in a popular form and I hope Sir Thomas 
 Iloldich may tell you of the action which is being taken 
 ])y the President and Council of the Koyal Geographical 
 Society in this direction. 
 
 Two points seem to me to be of great importance, if we 
 are working for the industrial and commercial develop- 
 ment of India. The development of her mines and timber 
 trade, her railways, and factories of all sorts, must be 
 dependent upon English capital, and this will never be 
 attracted to the country in sutHcient quantity, until the 
 Government of India are prepared to fix the rate of 
 exchange between England and India ; nor will P>nglish 
 ca])italists be prepared to invest their money in railways, 
 roads, irrigation works, etc., beyond the Indian Erontier, 
 unless some Government guarantee is forthcoming as a 
 securitv. 
 
 We must not overlook the fact that the ex])ansion of 
 trade I have ventured to indicate, must be a matter of time 
 and must start from small beginnings. The population of 
 such countries as Afghanistan, Persia, and Mesopotamia is 
 com[)aratively small, and their demand for the produce of 
 Eniilisli markets will be for a time, at anv rate, limited.
 
 ( 3 ) 
 
 But it is only by looking forward, and working to benefit 
 the generations to come, that we can hope to accomplish 
 anything. 
 
 In re2:ard to India, we are not onlv encourao'ed, we 
 are fairly astonished, by the continually increasing pros- 
 perity of her population, and by the confirmed loyalty 
 of her people ; the further development of the country is 
 assured. May we not hope for the extension of a like 
 prosperity to other countries under the influence of an 
 Empire that makes for peace ? 
 
 In the summary of my paper I have referred to India 
 as a future manufacturing base, and this matter might well 
 form the subject for further discussion should the Council 
 think fit ; but the outlook in this direction is most hopeful. 
 
 In the Blue-Book upon the moral and material progress 
 and condition of India published this year, the chapter 
 which deals with mineral resources makes one realize 
 possibilities in the further discovery of iron ore, of 
 petroleum, coal, and lavSt, not least, of gold. Already the 
 independence of India in regard to military stores and 
 material of all kinds is advancing so rapidly as fairly to 
 astonish one. In a few years her arsenals will acquire an 
 importance that will render her virtually independent of 
 the British Isles, during the early stages of war at least, 
 and Japan excepted, she will, in this respect, be without a 
 rival in the P^ast, 
 
 The East Indian Railway Company have set up a steel 
 plant and the manufacture of steel for projectiles and gun- 
 carriages has successfully been carried on in the Govern- 
 ment factory at Cossipore since 1891. Considering India 
 as a whole, there are undoubted possibilities of a consider- 
 able growth in the iron and steel industries, but large 
 cai)ital is essential for success, as any enterprise nmst be 
 on a large scale. 
 
 It requires but little imagination to picture the con- 
 struction of ships in Indian dockyards from material 
 obtained in India, and to think of her naval arsenals beino-
 
 ( i ) 
 
 on a par with lier niilitarv arsenals. The manufacture of 
 machinery and of ordnance in India is merely a question 
 of time. Rut I do not want to invite your attention to the 
 growth of Tndi.'i in mih'tarv resources, I wish to indicate 
 her growing ability to export largely articles of food- 
 sup])ly and manufactures that will have a real value in 
 the uiarkets of both East and West — wheat, cotton, rice, 
 tea, coft'ee, tol)acco, indigo, and maybe sugar. Large 
 areas of the country are beino; brouo-ht under irrisfation 
 and being secured against famine and her system of 
 aoriculture is beino- steadily improved. Her manufacturins: 
 ])ower is at present com])aratively small, but, according to 
 the l)lue-Book, there is eyidence of great vitality. Ca])ital 
 only is needed to stinudate the ])Ower of production of her 
 industries. 
 
 I can look back on nearly forty -five years of actual 
 service, and some who are present may recall half a 
 century or more. I remember when only one short rail- 
 way existed in India. Is it ditHcult to look forward for as 
 long a period ? I ask you to do so, and I realize what 
 may be the conditions which some young member of this 
 Society may Avitness if, in 1950, a discussion is held in 
 these rooms, on the further development of a commercial 
 policy for our Oriental Em])ire. 
 
 The statement made by Lord Lansdowne in the House 
 of Lords on May 12 last, with regard to our position on 
 the Persian Gulf, and the acknowledgment of 'sea power' 
 of whi(di it is the expression, indicate some change in the 
 attitude hitherto maintained by us in that region, and 
 foreshadow a large extension of the area over which the 
 beneKts of British influence and civilization may be 
 enjoyed. 
 
 If, however, our position in the East is to be at all 
 satisfactory, our relations with the various countries with 
 which the Government of India has to deal must be 
 guided by a definite and consistent policy, which, after 
 havino; been duly considered by the Council of Defence
 
 ( ■> ) 
 
 and a|)j)roved by the Cabinet, should be pursued, for at 
 least a generation, irrespective of party politics. 
 
 By the extension of our Indian railway system to 
 adjoining States and the development of commerce, we 
 may oppose a Russian advance by means other than those 
 of war, and insure a recognition of our Asiatic Empire as 
 aiming at the well-being and civilization of all the 
 countries coming under its influence. 
 
 It is therefore proposed to suggest the objects which 
 a permanent policy for our Indian Empire might embrace. 
 
 PERSIA. 
 
 Our present difficulties in undertaking the development 
 of Southern Persia are due to Persia's financial oblioations 
 to Russia, by which she is bound to allow no railway's to 
 be constructed in her territorv for a term of vears ; niio'ht 
 it not be possible, by negotiations Avitli Russia, to place 
 Persia in a position to repay the loan of £2,500,000 which 
 has been made to her, and to induce Russia to release her 
 from the bargain ? The open acknowledgment on our 
 part of a policy avowedly in the interest of the Persian 
 people may be advantageously made at a time when the 
 financial difficulties of Russia are considerable, and she 
 is occupied in other parts of Asia with extensive projects 
 involving large expenditure. The earliest opportunity 
 might be taken of connecting Teheran with the Gulf 
 and Bushire by a railway under British management, 
 and the subsequent connection of Teheran with Herat 
 by Meshed, and the completion of the Siestan railway 
 project, m;iy be kept in view ; as well as a ]n-oject i'or 
 connectino; the Indian railwav svstem in Baluchistan with 
 Yezd, bv a Persian railwav under British manaiicment, 
 starting from (^uetta by Nushki and ])assing through 
 Kirman ; from Yezd such a line would pass to Ispahan, 
 and ultimately to Kirmanshah. The connection of this 
 railway with Teheran on the one side and with the Gulf 
 on the other is an easy development, Isj);ilian beiiiii" con-
 
 ( «> ) 
 
 sidered a centre from which Bunder Abbas, Bushire, or 
 JMuhamerah may be reached, and these lines must be 
 features in any scheme for completing Persian railways. 
 
 I have special pleasure in welcoming the appearance of 
 Mr. Valentine Chirol's book upon the Middle Eastern 
 Question. His friends have been eagerly expecting its 
 publication, and people in England will do well to study it 
 with care, as giving a true representation of the actual 
 state of artairs in Persia, and a faithful, if somewhat 
 gloomy, account of British diplomacy during the last two 
 generations in regard to Persian affairs ; but I think that, 
 as in the case of Egypt, the British Government, Avhen it 
 seriously applies itself to the work of resuscitating Persia, 
 and sets to work in the interest of the Persian people, will 
 be able to grapple with the task. Mr. Chirol's book, like 
 that of Mr. H. J. Wigham, covers the whole subject ; they 
 explain the condition of trade and the social condition of 
 the Persian people, and they connect Persia with the 
 Euphrates Valley and that portion of Turkey in Asia which 
 we know as Mesopotamia, from which it may not be 
 separated in a full consideration of commercial policy. 
 
 In this connection, I would direct attention to an article 
 in Blackwood for December, entitled, ' A Proposal for the 
 Irrigation of Mesopotamia.' It explains Sir William 
 AA'^illcocks' proposals for dealing with the restoration of 
 the ancient irricration works belono-ino; to the Tio-ris. 
 
 So great an authority may be trusted not to put forward 
 schemes Avhich are impossible of realization, and I am 
 sano;iiine enough to imaiiine that in thefiftv vears to which 
 I look forward this may be more than a dream. 
 
 The recent attitude of His Majesty's Government in 
 regard to the Gulf must bring an accession of water-borne 
 trade, which will need encouragement ; and concessions 
 for undertakings in which British and Indian capital may 
 may be employed will doubtless be obtained, l)ut some 
 direction must be given by the Government as to what is 
 desirable in the pursuit of the policy they may ado})t.
 
 ( ' ) 
 
 AFGHANISTAN. 
 
 Till now we have regarded Afghanistan as a biifter 
 State likely to oppose obstacles to Russia, which it is not 
 in our interest to remove ; if, however, we consider the 
 good of India and of the Afghan people, we may sub- 
 stitute a commercial for a purely military policy by the 
 encouragement of traders, and by the establishment of 
 commercial intercourse, implying a treaty with the right 
 of free entry into Afghanistan. 
 
 The trading instincts of the Afghans and of our own 
 subjects may be depended upon to overcome difficulties, 
 provided everywhere security is obtained for commerce 
 and encouragement is given to commercial enterprise. 
 
 The construction of a railway to Kandahar and Herat, 
 and from Herat by Meshed to Teheran, and the develop- 
 ment of mining, should form part of our settled policy ; 
 a more complete system of railway communication with 
 Kabul, and a connection between Kabul and Kandahar 
 via Ghunzi, will assuredly follow. 
 
 BURMAH : THE STRAITS AND SIAM. 
 
 The growth of these countries in material prosperity 
 and their increase in wealth, so long as peace is maintained 
 by the recognition of ' sea power,' will lead to large 
 additions to the water-borne trade with India and the 
 Gulf. 
 
 I commend chapter xxv. of Mr. Chirol's book, ' Can 
 the Balance of Power be restored in Persia ?' to all who 
 wish to know what may still be undertaken in that 
 country ; but I would especially invite the attention of 
 the Central Asian Society to the following passage ; 
 
 ' That, with our vast interests in all parts of the East, this country 
 should still be only one amongst the chief countries of Europe that does 
 not possess any national institution for the study of Oriental languages, 
 such as the Ecole des Langues Orientales vivantes in Paris, the >Seminar
 
 ( s ) 
 
 fiir Orientalische Sprachen in Berlin, and the Oriental School in St. Peters- 
 burg, is an almost vniaccountable fact, which increases the difficulty of 
 finding at a moment's notice suitable men even for the posts which are 
 recognised to be most urgently needed. Not that a knowledge of the 
 vernacular, though indispensable, is the only qualification for such.' 
 
 I, for one, would hail with delight an announcement 
 that our Council were prepared to initiate steps which may 
 lead to the formation of a National Oriental School of 
 learning in London. The elder society — I had almost 
 called it the parent society — in whose rooms we hold our 
 meetings, the Royal Asiatic Society, would, I am certain, 
 be ready to join us in an endeavour to create a school, which, 
 Avith the assistance of the University of Oxford and our 
 other great Universities, might have a national character. 
 
 Mr. Cliirol states very clearly what the policy of Russia 
 in Asia is : 
 
 ' The policy of Russia in Persia is only part of a great system of Asiatic 
 policy — commercial, military, and political — which is steadily being built 
 up by the persevering hands of Russian statesmen, whose breadth of grasp 
 and continuity of purpose are liable to no disturbance from the fluctua- 
 tions of public sentiment or the precariousness of Parliamentary majorities. 
 To them Teheran is merely one link in a long chain which stretches from 
 Constantinople to Peking.' 
 
 His reviewer in the Times still further explains : 
 
 ' That policy may be briefly stated to consist in maintaining the nominal 
 independence of the States she desires to subjugate, in monopolizing their 
 trade by the exclusion of all foreign competition, in thwarting every 
 attempt at internal reforms calculated to increase their powers of resist- 
 ance to aggression, in encouraging the lavish and unprofital)le expenditure 
 which is the bane of all Oriental Governments, and in getting into her own 
 hands, by means of loans and subsidies, the virtual control of their foreign, 
 their political, and their commercial relations. 
 
 ' Thus, in the case of Persia, Russia — while she has surrounded the 
 country with railways running through her own dominions, and thereby 
 enabling her in case of need to invade Persia with ease — has done every- 
 thing in her power to deprive Persia of railway communication. When- 
 ever a scheme was suggested from abroad for constructing railroads or 
 irrigation works, or for introducing improved methods of taxation and a 
 reform of her debased currency, Russia has exerted her influence at 
 Teheran to baflle the success of these enterprises by threats, or more often 
 by bribciy.'
 
 ( a ) 
 
 AVe, unfortunately, have no decided and continuous 
 policy ; I would suggest the adoption of a j)olicy, political, 
 commercial, and military, for our Oriental Empire which 
 shall he hased upon sea power, which may hreathe the 
 spirit of progress, and which may lead to the advance- 
 ment of all the countries adjoining India in prosperity 
 and civilization, and may insure the maintenance of peace 
 in Asia. 
 
 I venture briefly to lay down the lines on which such a 
 policy might be based : 
 
 1. The adoption of a settled policy for our Oriental 
 
 Empire, based on the recognition and the 
 assertion of sea power between Aden and 
 Hong Kong. 
 
 2. The extension of the Indian railway system to 
 
 adjoining countries, and the adoption of a 
 forward commercial policy, throwing back 
 the advance of Russian commerce. 
 
 3. The development of India as the manufacturing 
 
 base of our trade commodities, shortening the 
 lines of advance, by which we may recover 
 markets that have been lost. 
 
 4. The general expansion of British commerce by 
 
 land and sea, the Government giving such 
 security to shipping and to trading interests 
 as may promote initiative amongst our traders, 
 a Government guarantee being sufficient to 
 insure the flow of capital to Persia and to 
 India from England. 
 
 .5. The military policy which controls the action of 
 the Indian army will be in conformity with 
 the above, being based upon sea pt)wer instead 
 of, as at present, being governed by the fear 
 of Kussia moving by way of Afghanistan.
 
 ( 1" ) 
 
 G. Such change will insure the ability of India to 
 embark a sufficient force to support our alliance 
 with Japan, and give a reason, beyond that of 
 the defence of India, for maintaining the 
 European portion of the army in India in its 
 present high state of efficiency. 
 
 To enable us to initiate such a policy, we have to get 
 rid of the fear of Russia and of her military strength, 
 which has controlled our political and military action 
 during the past thirty years. 
 
 We must adopt a new conception of the term a ' Buffer 
 State,' making the prosperity of a country and the progress 
 of railway communication the best barrier to the advance 
 of Russia. 
 
 The Government must deal with Russia direct, and 
 must claim from her not only recognition of our right to 
 promote the progress of railways in Southern Persia, but 
 also of our right to influence the Government of the Shah 
 at Teheran in any endeavour he may be willing to make 
 for the benefit of his people. 
 
 In openly declaring such a policy as I have outlined, we 
 have a strong position and very hopeful prospect. If the 
 very decided action of the Viceroy in favour of commerce 
 and the future plans of the Government of India result in 
 the flow of capital to that country, the development of 
 trade will be a rapid development. 
 
 If at the present time we allow the great importance 
 of the commercial value of our Oriental Empire to be 
 obscured, and do not take full cognizance of its influence 
 in other Asiatic countries, we shall be neglecting one of 
 the most important factors that go to make up the history 
 of the British Empire.
 
 ( 11 ) 
 
 dentval Hsian Society. 
 
 DISCUSSION ON GENERAL CHAPMAN'S LECTURE. 
 
 Sir Lepel Griffin : I wish to express general agreement with 
 General Chapman's lecture, but disagreement with several points of 
 importance ; and in the few minutes at my disposal, I hope the lecturer 
 will forgive me if I speak of the points with regard to which I join issue 
 with him. The millennium has not yet arrived, yet, with Russia and 
 Afghanistan both opposed to the programme, I fail to see how it is to be 
 carried out. If Russia strongly adheres to-day to the consistent policy 
 she has pursued for years, what palliatives can be suggested 1 Why does 
 General Chapman imagine that Russia will be willing to allow the British 
 Government to repay the loan of £2,500,000 — a loan made expressly to 
 tie Persia to her chariot wheels ? Russia would not consent to such a 
 proposal, nor has the British Government the least wish to make the 
 suggestion, or power to carry it through Parliament. It was with the 
 knowledge of the British Government that the loan was negotiated. If 
 Great Britain had wished to undertake it, no difficulty would have 
 occurred ; the amount could have been raised ; the Imperial Bank of 
 Persia would have been glad to have arranged the loan ; but the British 
 Government declined to take it up, and what Great Britain refused to do 
 Russia was ready to carry out. 
 
 On the question of commercial development there is for us no great 
 success apart from the sea and our carrying trade by sea. Do not vainly 
 attempt to develop commerce by railways connecting Central Asia with 
 India. Strategical lines, brought from fortified Russian camps into com- 
 munication with our Indian system, would be a source of great danger, 
 and would certainly be used against us. Make a line from the Persian 
 Gulf from Bushire to Teheran if you will ; such a line might pay. No 
 British investor would agree to subscril^e money for the construction of 
 railways according to the programme of General Chapman, which would 
 only serve the hostile purposes of our enemies and commercial rivals.
 
 ( 12 ) 
 
 With regard to the lecturer's remarks concerning Continental schools 
 for Oriental languages, I may say that, knowing the institutions of Paris, 
 Berlin, and St. Petersburg, I should rejoice to see Great Britain better 
 provided in this respect. I acknowledge that there are probably fifty 
 professors of Oriental languages in Germany to the half-dozen English 
 professors who are scattered between London, Oxford, and Cambridge. 
 But yet I maintain that we have a great and world-wide institution 
 for training students in Oriental languages — namely, the whole British 
 Empire. I can put my hand on numbers of young men who speak Arabic, 
 Persian, or the languages of Africa better than the professors on the 
 Continent, because they are learning those languages in their daily work 
 in different parts of the British Empire. So, although I should be glad 
 to see colleges for the study of Oriental languages established in Great 
 Britain, I am disposed to think that, having a world-wide Empire as a 
 training-ground, the need for them is not so essential to us as it is to 
 Continental nations who lack our practical facilities. 
 
 Mr. E. E. p. Moon, M.P. ; I cannot claim that my travels in the East 
 entitle me to pronounce dogmatically on the wide subject that has been 
 brought before us, but I know that there are two opposing schools of 
 thought — that of General Chapman and that of Sir Lepel Griffin. A dozen 
 years ago Sir Charles Dilke declared that Russia was the only possible 
 antagonist of the Anglo-Saxon race, in which term he included the United 
 States of America. Since that time Russia has extended her frontiers in a 
 natural direction, which leaves her enlarged Empire surrounded by a ring 
 fence. It is obviously unworthy for us to be jealous of Russia, as our Empire 
 has extended over the habitable globe. The question of how to treat 
 Russia suggests itself to every inquiring mind, Afghanistan cainiot remain 
 indefinitely a no man's land. Russia, through her trade with that country, 
 deems representatives necessary there ; these representatives, of course, 
 would exercise political influence. It is impossible to say how soon Afghan- 
 istan will be settled and traversed by railways, but it is certain that in 1950 
 — the date mentioned by the lecturer — Afghanistan will be no longer a 
 buffer State. With regard to Tibet also, it is clear that, whether the present 
 British expedition be a great or a little one, Russia has made great 
 advances into that region. Urga, the Buddhist centre, second only to 
 Lhassa, is under Russian control. Russified Buddhists from Urga travel 
 south and establish Russian influence. At some moment, however, and 
 perhaps when least expected, there may be an entire and complete collapse 
 of Russia. I think that she has bitten off more than she can chew in Asia. 
 Siberia, or Russian Asia, exclusive of Trans-Caspia, has, I believe, an area 
 of 5,000,000 square miles, with only 5,000,000 inhabitants, or one to a 
 square mile. There is industrial and economic distress in European 
 Russia and disaffection in the army. A cataclysm may be the result. 
 Only the unexpected, however, happens, and future events may prove 
 such prognostications wrong; but we should not forget Talleyrand's 
 saying : " Gouverner, c'est prevoir." We ought to contemplate the 
 possibility, and be prepared for it.
 
 ( 1'^ ) 
 
 Sir Thomas Holdicii : I will limit my remarks to one phase of this 
 wide subject, and speak, as an engineer and surveyor, of railways only in 
 the countries under discussion. We must remember that as yet all 
 railway schemes are outside the sphere of practical politics, for Russia 
 controls Persia's railway policy, and the Amir of Afghanistan will not 
 have railways at all. I am in agreement with a project for a main line 
 through the length of mid-Persia ; it is practical ; it is not difficult ; it 
 will pay. So much cannot be said of a line along the coast. I do not 
 agree with an extension across the breadth of Persia from the North-East 
 to South-West ; it would be very difficult to construct and exceedingly 
 costly. I am one of those who believe in the good effects of intercourse 
 between nations ; international knowledge of a commercial nature tends 
 towards better understanding. I am an advocate for a connection 
 between the Russian railway systems and the Indian lines. I do not 
 think Russia could use them against us, and I believe that they would be 
 a distinctly favourable factor towards the maintenance of peace. I 
 believe in a trunk line for the Avhole of Asia, and I maintain that there is 
 only one geographical break which permits an easy passage for railway 
 communication from north to south, and that is precisely at Herat. 
 From Herat to New Chaman is only a distance of 500 miles. So far, at 
 least, as the engineering difficulties are concerned, and the promise of 
 commercial return, such a line must be superior to all others. I am 
 convinced that it will be made. Afghanistan will not disappear as 
 a buffer State because Ave have right of way through the country ; and 
 this line will be a necessity for the general advancement of civilization in 
 the East. 
 
 I should like to say one word more about the marked progress which 
 has been made in the Afghan army since we had experience of it. When 
 occupied with the Asraar Survey, I was the guest of the Amir and of the 
 Afghan Commander-in-Chief. This was at the time of the Chitral siege. 
 We had a considerable force of Afghan soldiers to safeguard the Com- 
 mission. We were certainly not allowed to see very much of the Afghan 
 army ; but on several occasions I was able to notice a great improvement 
 in discipline and morale. The Amir's army is a force to be reckoned 
 with ; it is fairly well armed, and in mountain artillery it is perhaps a 
 little superior to the Indian army. Whether an opposing force enters 
 Afghanistan from the north or from the east, it may count on meeting a 
 formidable foe. 
 
 MAJOR-GENERAL SiR Edwin Collen : I think that General Chapman, 
 in urging closer trade relations and the extension of railways, l)etween 
 India and the surrounding countries, has hardly done justice to the 
 efforts made l)y the Government of India for the extension of trade; but 
 all efforts in this direction are made in the face of great obstacles and 
 tremendous barriers. A closer trade relation between Afghanistan would 
 be warmly welcomed, but the policy of the Amir is to exclude our people 
 and to uphold a stringent fiscal policy of his own. The progress desired 
 l)y the lecturer is excellent as a policy, and one which, if possible, every-
 
 ( 1-t ) 
 
 one would be glad to see carried out. On the question of railways, 
 sufficient credit has not been given, I think, to the investigations and 
 work which have been undertaken in India. There are many who wish 
 to see railways pushed forward to certain points in Afghanistan, but 
 support could not be pledged to General Chapman's extensive scheme. 
 As a matter of principle, our Indian system should be connected with 
 surrounding countries, but there is little possibility of carrying this 
 principle into general effect at the present time. 
 
 As to the military policy of the Government of India, all its endeavours 
 have been to secure internal peace and to safeguard the frontier. But 
 India has been able to send contingents to help the Empire in South 
 Africa and in China. India should be regarded as the great base of 
 military enterprise in the East, and no opportunity should be lost of 
 developing her military manufacturing resources. The advantages of 
 sea power are obvious, but we must be quite certain that it does exist 
 in Eastern waters. No subject is more interesting than the development 
 of our naval resources in those seas. 
 
 Colonel Picot : Russia is not likely to forego the advantages gained 
 by her loan to Persia ; but it does not seem probable that she will 
 construct railways in that country for some considerable time, for she is 
 already well served both strategically and economically by her railways 
 in Trans-Caspia and Central Asia. A railway such as that suggested 
 from Shinter to Teheran would seem altogether impractical if we refuse all 
 part in the Bagdad Railway scheme. This railway would indeed be ' in 
 the air ' with the Bagdad Railway on one side, and a Russian railway 
 through Azerbaijan via Kirmansha to the Gulf on the other. Would it 
 not be possible to assist in the construction of the Bagdad Railway whilst 
 still maintaining our great interests in Mesopotamia ? 
 
 Mr. H. J. Whigham : I must confess to being amazed by some of the 
 arguments that have been put forward. A railway from the Persian Gulf 
 to Teheran is an absolute necessity ; other lines may be better from a 
 strictly engineering point of view, but cannot have the same commercial 
 value. The Gulf must be used as a natural base. The Bandar Abbas, 
 Kerman, Ispahan, and Teheran route offers no serious difficulty ; greater 
 obstacles have been encountered in South Africa. But the point is that, 
 if we do not build the railways, Russia certainly will do so. Russia has 
 carried out her railway policy better than any other country ; her railway 
 programme in Persia has been mapped out for j'-ears. Some thirteen or 
 fourteen years ago she wished to gain the monopoly for all Persia, but 
 finding that this was impracticable, she made a secret agreement instead, 
 to expire in 1900. It is believed that the secret agreement has been 
 extended to 1905 or 1910. Why should railways in Persia be outside 
 practical politics? If we are to build in 1905, it is time we laid our 
 plans. We ought to have a policy. It seems taken for granted that the 
 necessity of railways lies in the fact of communication with India, but
 
 ( 1.^ ) 
 
 that is not the point. The point is our predominance. If the Meso- 
 potamian Railway, which England wished to construct years ago, had been 
 regarded on its merits, and not merely as a means of communication with 
 India, it would have been built, and the troubles of to-day would not 
 have arisen ; both our political influence and our trade would have 
 enormously increased. We know that Russia obtained Manchuria by 
 means of railways. Five years ago, when Japan was turned out of Port 
 Arthur, it would have been thought impossible for Russia to have fortified 
 it and connected it with her own railway system, as she has done. Russia 
 pursues her railways policy, undeterred by party politics at home, and 
 what Lord Lansdowne says will make little difference when Russia 
 controls the whole of Persia. The British people will not agree then to 
 fight her for a port on the Persian Gulf, any more than they wish to do so 
 now for a port on the Gulf of Pechili. 
 
 Mr. J. D. Rees : I should like to ask the lecturer how it is proposed 
 to raise the capital for the projects he has advanced : whether from the 
 finances of India or of England. 
 
 Sir Alfred Lyall : I am sure we all feel greatly obliged to General 
 Chapman for ventilating this wide subject, and for exti-acting such valu- 
 able information. It seems to me that the debate has illustrated 
 Sir Lepel Griffin's remarks with regard to the resources of the Empire 
 as a training-ground, for, as a result of General Chapman's lecture, a 
 number of gentlemen have given us various information with regard to the 
 countries under discussion from their personal experience, whether on 
 service or as travellers. 
 
 With reference to the propositions made, the consummation of 
 General Chapman's policy is devoutly to be wished for, but in the realm 
 of practical politics it is not possible to move quickly. Some time must 
 elapse before even the first steps are taken. The discussion has turned, 
 with commendable practicalness, on railways. Nothing has so transformed 
 the Avorld in the last century as the development of communications ; it 
 has influenced language, habits, and commerce. 
 
 We have to face in the East a powerful antagonist, that opposes with 
 tariff walls our policy of the Open Door. These policies are coming into 
 collision in the competition for fresh markets for European goods, 
 and, as in a game of chess, it is a question of who will get first on to 
 the commercial square. Russia only wants Tibet commercially in order 
 to prevent our entry. Our interest lies in railways. I can easily under- 
 stand that there are fewer obstacles in the way of railways in Africa than 
 there are in Asia, because nothing can withstand the strong commercial 
 instinct, and the jealousies of the Great Powers do not so seriously affect 
 the situation in Africa. Afghanistan, as a buff'er State, merely softens down 
 the collision that must eventually come ; it is the same with Persia. We 
 have interfered in Asia Minor in the case of Syria, of Armenia, owing to 
 tlie misgovtM'iimciit of the Turk. The most eflfective way of introducing
 
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 civilization into those countries, and of checking Turkish misgovernment 
 by throwing light into dark places, would be, in my opinion, by opening 
 out railways through them, and for this reason I regretted that the 
 scheme for the Bagdad line failed last spring. Our whole object in such 
 papers as that of General Chapman is to get these large questions debated 
 by men of experience and local knowledge. I am not sanguine, however, 
 as to the possiliility of filling in the outline of the policy, as sketched, 
 owing to the jealousies of the powerful commercial nations— jealousies 
 which increase every day. 
 
 December 15, 1903.
 
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