UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT LOS ANGELES A LETTER The Rev.T. R. MALTHUS,m.a. t.r.s. BEING AN ANSWER TO THE CRITICISM, ON Mu (3omin'& moxh on IPopulatton, WHICH WAS INSERTED IN THE LXX'" NUMBER OF THE EDINBURGH REVIEW: TO WHICH IS ADDED AN EXAMINATION OF THE CENSUSES OF GREAT, BRITAIN AND IRELAND. By DAVID BOOTH. LONDON: PRINTED FOR LONGxMAN, HURST, REES, ORMK, AND BltOWN, PATE UNO ST i: II- R O W. TKINTLI' BV HRIIAKU lAVLOll, MIDL-LA.Nfi. y^' H -^ ADVERTISEMEISIT. This Letter was written and partly printed ten months ago, xvhen the ''Comparative Statement ^ of the Population of Great Britain, in the years ^ 1 80 1 , 1 8 1 1 and 1 82 J ," appeared. I had previously ^\\ procured, by the favour of different friends. Returns of Population and Ages of above half a million of the last Census, and on those I had drawn up some remarks ; but I felt that I should not be doing i justice to the subject, to content myself with partial 4 statements, xvhen I saw that the particulars of the ^ whole Census were on the eve of publication. I had ^ hopes, too, of receiving, ere now, the late Census of the United States; but in this I have been disap- pointed. The zvhole force of the Rcviezv, and its avowed object, being directed against the reasonings in my 2Ay^2L iv ADVERTISEMENT, *' Dissertation^^' I have purposely avoided any dis- cussion on tlie other and more general topics of Mr. Godxcins book. That gentleman is not yet too old to wield a spear in his own defence, should he judge it necessary ; and it is not for me, officiously, to be- come his champion. D, B. London, .Tanuary 1, A LETTER to TuE Rev. T. R. MALTHUS, M.A. F.R.S. Rev. SiK, XT is not merely because I have been told that you were the Edinburgh Reviewer of Mr. Godwin's work on Population, tiiat I address this letter to you ; for you have certainly as good a right to reason on this question as any other man : and it would not have pleased me less although the virulence and ignorance which shine forth in that precious pro- duction had appeared under the sanction of your name. The criticism, whatever may be its effect, is given professedly to uphold your system. It does not appear in a petty publication. This glory of the North is said to have twelve thousand pur- chasers, and probably sixty thousand readers. To every one of these my name is repeatedly held up as that of an author whose " extraordinary want of general information" " leads him into gross erjorn," B 2 A lETTER TO and whose " ignorance is unparalleled ;" while, perhaps, not one in a hundred of these readers will ever hear of my reply. Such is the influence that has been exerted by a trembling antagonist ; and such are the means employed to support your falling fame. The speaker is covered with a mask ; but he is your declared Advocate — your official De- fender ; and, as you have expressed your approba- tion both of the matter and the manner of his phi- lippic, it is but justice, even to him, to believe that they were both contained in his brief, and drawn up by you. Careless, then, whether you have defended yourself or hired a Champion, I will examine the Article as if it had been written from your dicta- tion, and endeavour to refute the charge of " false reasoning" which has been brought against me in this petulant Review. When, at the request of Mr. Godwin, I wrote that unfortunate Dissertation, (which, according to your Reviewer, has classed me among the meanest of the ephemeral insects that issue hourly from the public press,) it was never my intention that it should be deemed a refutation of all the errors of your work. Having in my youth acquired a smattering of arith- metic, I was persuaded, in an evil hour, to write a few remarks on your far-famed Ratios of Population and Subsistence. I thought myself modest in my pretensions. The first six pages of your long essay THE REV. T. It. MALTHUS. 3 on the principle of Population were the only ones of which I dared to speak ; and I simply endea- voured to demonstrate that there was nothing, in the progress of Population and in the means of sub- sistence, that had, respectively, the most distant con- nexion with the Geometrical and Arithmetical Ra- tios which were taught me when I was a boy. I did not think it necessary to bring more talents to the task than I possessed in those early years ; be- cause it is, somewhere, said by a Roman poet (I for- get the Latin) that we should never make use of more power than is adequate to our purpose. I was vain enough to imadne that I had sue- ceeded in my undertaking, when your Review ap- peared and dispelled all my dreams of conquest. You there say, that my labour has been " solemn and absurd trifling ;" that there may be Geometrical Progressions that are " not strictly regular ;" and then ask " if he had succeeded, of what possible consequence would it be to the general argument?" I confess that I was as little prepared for this as- tounding question, as for the reception of the novel idea of " irregular Geometrical Progressions;" and I must agree with you, in your New Light, that these arrangements of ligure>j can be of no possible consequence to the argument. I always considered this application of Ratios as extremely ridiculous ; but I was gulled into the belief that you laid great B 2 4 A LKTTER TO stress upon their assistance. The comparison of Progressions appears at the beginning of every edi- tion of your work, and, whether you have been de- ceived or deceiving, has had a material effect in the promulgation of your theories, I will not, however, quarrel with your conduct in this particular. The lawgivers of antiquity spoke from the sacred re- cesses of the temples, in order that their precepts might seem to have the sanction of the gods. The divine authority was merely pretended ; but it does not therefore follow that the precepts themselves were erroneous: and, in addressing an ignorant mul- titude, it was deemed wise to bring superstition to the aid of trutii. Imitating the example of those sages, you laid tlie foundation of your system on the oracular assemblage of numbers ; but, having now finished the building, you seem willing to throw down the pillars on which it was raised, in the de- lusive confidence that your castle will remain sus- pended in the clouds. Well — the Ratios are abandoned. The Geome- trical one has become " irregular^'' and the Arith- metical is forgotten. The necromantic lines. Population 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, Subsistence 1, 2, S, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, p, will be left out of the future editions of your work ; and the ignorant, among your disciples, will bespared the trouble of talking about what they do not uiv THE RLV. T. R. MALTHUS. S derstand. Your book will thus be freed from the imposing air of mathematical evidence, and will rest its merit on the extracts from missionary voyages and travels, with which it abounds : — upon the " ge- neral information" acquired from those authentic documents, which are indeed very amusing, though they can scarcely be called demonstration. But, notwithstanding that you now consider the Ratios as unworthy of serious discussion, you still cling to the idea that there may be a doubling of mankind, from procreation only, in 12 or 15 years ; and, in consequence, some remarks of mine, which tend to throw a doubt on this doubling's having ac- tually taken place in America, have called forth your severest animadversions. If I want faith in these miraculous duplications, it proceeds from that infirnjity in my nature which makes me doubt every assertion which appears to be contradictory to ex- perience, or utterly impossible. I have, otherwise, no peculiar prejudice on the subject, and care little about the effects of a procreative power which has, hitherto, allowed the greater part of the earth to re- main a desert. The inherent power of procreation will, I imagine, be better understood by posterity ; and I have no desire that our statute books should be further extended by laws, which can only be exe- cuted by generations that are yet unborn. But a species of contagion, till now unknown, has attacked 6 A LETTER TO the minds of our modern economists. In their hy- pochondriacal imaginations, the many are doomed to remain for ever the property of the few ; and, like a herd of cattle, are to be increased or dimi- nished as the interest or the whim of the Capitalist shall direct. According to them, when there is no demand for the labour of the man, he ceases to have a rifrht to existence. The error of such reasoners is that of certain engineers who do not distinguish between dead and livitig powers. The latter will bend to circumstances, or exert themselves to over- come an unexpected resistance. Our economists count mind for nothing. They do not calculate on the innate energy of living beings, who may in a moment, by a stubborn resolve, set at nought all their calculations and give their feeble fabrics to the winds. I am aware that these passing remarks must be disagreeable to you and your followers ; and, there- fore, waiving the subject for the present, I will pro- ceed to reply to the leading criticism in your Re- view. As this Letter, however, is not intended for your sole perusal, and as it may possibly fall into the hands of some who have not seen Mr. Godwin's work, you will excuse nic for extracting so much from my Dissertation as may render my reply more generally intelligible : ** When enumerations are taken every ten years. THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 7 it is obvious, exclusive of immigration, that, in any particular Census, the persons living above ten years of age must have all existed in the Census immediately preceding. In that of 1810, for in- stance, all above ten years formed part of the Po- pulation of 1 800, and are in reality the same, ex- cept inasmuch as they are diminished by death. Those under ten have all been born in the interval between the Censuses. " Comparing the American Censuses on this principle, we shall find an astonishing extent of immigration. The white population of 1800 was 4,305,971. These in ten years would be dimi- nished by a fourth. It is very improbable that more than 3,200,000 would have been alive in 1810; for, whatever proportion the births of that country may bear to the whole population, the proportion of deaths is certainly greater than in Europe. These 3,200,000, then, should have constituted the number of those above ten years of age, in the Census of 1810, had there been no importation from other countries. But the actual Census above ten years of age, was 3,845,389 ; giving a surplus of 645,389, which can be accounted for in no other way than by immigration. The Census of 1810 contains also 2,016,704 children under ten years. Part of these, too, as well as the deaths of im- migrants since their arrival, should be added to 8 A LETTER TO ihe 545,389 above stated ; and, therefore, of the 1,556,122 persons^ which the Census of 1810 ex- hibits beyond that of 1 800, it is as clear as sun- shine that nearly one half was added by direct im- migration. Of the effects on tlie increase of Po- pulation by the introduction of grown-up persons we have already spoken ; and, adverting to these effects, along with the statements now given, the additional Population is completely accounted for, without supposing a power of procreation beyond what is found to prevail among European nations." You are pleased to observe, of the paragraphs here quoted, that they " contain the only argument which has any appearance of shaking, by an appeal to facts, the ratios of the natural increase of Popu- lation laid down by Mr. Malthus." Accustomed to view every thing through the haze of hypothesis, you are startled when any object is brouglit directly before your eyes. You feel as if the ground were sinking under your feet : and anxiously cling to the deceitful hope, that I must have mistaken the pro- portion of the dead. You well know that, should a fourth, or even a fifth of tlie people of America die within the space of ten years, your System of Population must inevitably be overthrown ; and it is therefore that you would move Heaven and Earth to keep them from their graves. But you labour in vain. The shafts of death are as nume- THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 9 rous and fly swifter in the new than in the old world. There, no regal palace invites his approach, but he does not, therefore, forget to knock at the door of the cottage. By some occult method of calculation, which will probably remain for ever undiscovered, you have satisfied yourself, in contradiction to the fact, that more than four fifths of the persons in each of the Swedish Censuses, remained alive after ten years. I am convinced, on the contrary, that they must hare lost about a fourth of their number during that period ; but this difference between us would be of little value to the general argument, were it not for the strange consequences which you have drawn. The seven Enumerations of Sweden, from which Dr. Price constructed his tables, show an average annual mortality of 1 in 34.6 of the whole Popu- lation. This proportion may be less, but cannot be more than the truth. In a Swedish Census there may be, and indeed always are, omissions in Registers of deaths, but there is no chance of addi- tions. Neither sea-faring" men, nor soldiers on foreign stations, are taken into account, and their proportion of deaths is universally high: besides, of the Censuses here alluded to, there were only three that included the whole kingdom, and these were taken in the most favourable years. From 1770 to 1773, when the mortality was extremely great, be- ing 1 in 28, three provinces and Stockholm itself 10 - A LF/rTEll TO (the most unhealthy of all) were wholly omitted. But let this pass ; for I shall have no need to stickle for minute advantages*. Your next step is to fix the proportion of annual mortality in America ; and, after acknowledging that no two persons are agreed on the subject, you adopt the " estimate" of a Mr. Barton, whom you yourself convicted of having amused the Philoso- phical Society of Philadelphia with a blundering calculation about births and marriages which, to the disgrace of that learned body, was published in their Transactions t« Mr. Barton's estimateis, that the annual mortality in America is, to the whole Population, as 1 to 45. You have now got three things : 1 . The proportion of the annual deaths to the Population of Sweden — nearly accurate . . . . . 1 to 34.5 2. The proportion of the Swedish popu- lation that die in ten years — erroneous 1 to 5.3 3. The proportion of the inhabitants who die, annually, throughout Ame- rica— ;-/b/' which you have no evidence whatever 1 to 45 * Price's Observations on Revcrsionarj' Payment?, 7th cd. vol. ii. p. 406. f Sec Godwin on Population, p. dl9; Malthus on Population, .5th ed. vol ii. p. 151 ; and Transactions ol" the American Phil. Soc. vol. iii. p. 2.5. THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 1 1 And from these you make the following calcula- tion, for which you deserve a Diploma from the Philosophers of Philadelphia : If — give --, what will ~. give ? 34.6 O 5.2 43 t? And this brings you fairly to the minutely accurate conclusion, that only ^^ (not quite a seventh part) of the persons in any given American Census would be found to have died in the course of the succeed- ing ten years ! This whimsical statement reminds me of the common School-puzzle: If 8 oxen plough an acre of land in 2 days, in what time would 7 asses perform the same quantity of work ? The first and the third terms of the question are not of the same kind. Independently of the difference of soil and climate in which they live, the ages of the indi- viduals of a Swedish Census differ so widely from any of the Censuses hitherto taken in America, that the proportion of the annual Ratios of Mortality, between the two countries, is as difficult to discover a priori as that between the mortality of men com- pared with those of monkeys. "Mr. Booth," you say, "proceeding, we suppose, " upon the supposition that the Mortality in the '' United States is 1 in 40, imagines that he shall "obtain the Mortality of the ten years in question " by multiplying the mortality of one year by ten ; " and so infers, that the Population of the first '* Census would, in ten years, be diminished by C 2 12 A LETTKK TO T-o> 0* 1 j" ^^^^ upon this gYntuiious supposition, you procecil to comment upon my supposed ignorance. Had I risked n)y assertion upon such data, I must have been ignorant indeed, and should have de- served all the castigation which you, in your wis- dom, have attempted to bestow ; but I built on a firmer foundation, and I have no objection to show you the ground on which I stood. In doing so, I will endeavour to make myself intelligible to com- mon Readers : your calculations are only for the initiated. In societies, the amount of whose population is stationary, in an average of years, the Born merely replace those who die. As many of the Children as remain alive from the Births, in anyone year, constitute the number between 1 and 2 years of age in the next. The survivors of these form the enu- meration between 2 and 3 in the succeeding year ; and, thus, in the progressive flow of generations, the several steps in the ladder of life always sup- port the same numb(?r of human Beings, although the individuals on each continually ascend, and re- sign their place to their successors. In my Dissertation J I gave a Table of the living at diffeient ages, in Sweden, proportioned to a Po- pulation of 10,000, from the average of the years Godwin on Population, page 268. THE REV. T. IJ. MALTIIUS. 13 1757, 1760, and 1763. These were three of the seven Censuses mentioned by Dr. Price, and the only ones that included the whole of the kingdom. This Table I will here repeat for the sake of clearer illustration. Table of the Living at different ages in Swedenj averaged from the Censuses of 1757, 1760, and 1 763 ; and proportioned to a population of 1 0,000. Ages of the Living. Averat;e ot the three Censuses. Proportion to 10,000. Annual Births. 88,032 370 Under 5 Years 334,899 1,408 5 to 10 255,965 1,076 10—15 241,521 1,015 15—20 204,297 859 20 — 25 195,371 821 25 — 30 187,134 785 30 — 35 176,309 741 35 — 40 150,066 631 40 — 45 132,180 556 45 — 50 1 10,505 464 50 — 55 98,395 414 55 — 60 84,646 356 60 — 65 74,643 314 65 — 70 52,357 220 70 — 75 40,106 169 75 — 80 23,230 98 80 — 85 11,569 49 85 — 90 4,303 18 above 90 1,566 6 Population 2,379,062 10,000 14 A LETTER TO In reasoning from tables such as the preceding, the consequences will be different, according to the state of stability or fluctuation in the number of the people, at the period in which those tables are formed. The population may be either increasing, or stationary, or diminishing ; and each of these cases would present a different result. In the in- stance before us, there is no presumption of a dimi- nution ; and, therefore, the question lies entirely between the stationary and the increase. Looking at the numbers in the censuses about this period, the Society appears to have been increasing ; but you will, probably, agree with the reasonings of Dr. Price, " that this increase had not been of long con- tinuance*. "To these reasonings I would only add that, notwithstanding the apparent increase (above 100,000) the births in 1754 and 1755 were more numerous than those of 1762 and 1763; and I conceive that I have sufficiently demonstrated, in •ny Dissertation, that " there may happen to be very extensive variations in the different censuses of a Society in the germ of which there is no jirinciple of permanent increaset-" Nevertheless, tojireventall cavil, I will consider this expansion of human life in Sweden from both points of view ; and first I will sup- pose it to represent a stationary state of population. * Observations on Reversionary Payments, vol. ii, p. iCir. t Godwin (iii I'o|iiilation, pag»; '27:i, Stc. THE REV. T. It. MALTHUS. J5 On this ground, then, it appears from the table ** that 370 annual births are just sufficient to keep up a population of 10,000 persons. These 370 (or 1 850 in 6 years) constitute a population of 1 408, under 5 years of age, who are renewed by the births as they grow older, or die. These 1408 are reduced, by deaths, to 1076 between the ages of 5 and 10, who are again reduced to 1015, being the number living between 10 and ]5. In the same manner, from the continual supply by births and reduction by deaths, the different numbers of every age, mak- ing up the whole population, are regularly kept up throughout the century, which, here, appears to be the limit of the age of man. In actual existence, these numbers will vary above or below the num-~ bers of the table, which are here given as an average proportion of a Society of little or no increase." Itisobvious that if there were no births, the 1408 who are under 5 would (by growing years and re- duction in numbers) cdactli/ fill the place of the 1076 who are now between 5 and 10; while every other number would be lifted forward a step in the scale, and the place of these 1408 would remain a blank. The next 5 years would leave an empty space for those between 5 and 10 ; and the Society would thus go on diminishing until the whole popu- lation of 10,000 were swept from existence. The following Table will illustrate the subject and show the law of diminution : 16 A LETTER TO feb a> c c 0) O r^ cn TD a> • 5 IT) Q) u. >i ^ w a ^ c o o o c o cu o o ca o o 00 ■^ T^ (s. o> CO oi eo (o O O ■<»> Tl o CO O C?-. 03 Oi CO <0 OJ (O o> ^ -^ o o < 2 '^ O Oi OO Oi CO o '-I 0< <0 C> ■* Tl CO OJ — fv. CO t 2 <0- Tjl rH CO 00 0* TH o c^ U r •>i'«3tOC3i00OC0<0 •r-lu0-HCS>'OO>'^»-l ■* M CO O* •-> o O — -O — ' 0» -O C?) •<*< ri ^ ^ CO CO ^ "^ ■x> o <0't-00CJ)0000<0 lO 'O — O »H c> '»J<»-I •O -t" tC 00 CO CM »-< O 'O 0> -< 'O ■^ '-1 t^ ^ UO O* 00 -"t CO o o CO eo t>. t^ }'eoe. coCOOOO<0 U0<0 — '0'-''*TS •O TJ" ^ 00 00 o» T-< o c 3 o G < •O O O O "0 O 'O o ^T-■r-.c^^c:^ooeo^ o o 1 1 ! 1 1 ! -a "'•■'' ' ..- "0 O i-O O 'C o o i-j T- ~ e< c* n CO >00>00'00«00'000 ■*>o«o.oooocj>a. ! I ! ! 1 1 : 1 1 ! ^ o O'OO'OO'OO'OO'OJ -!• ^ lO lO o 1,948,500 And this latter number was all that remained alive of the 2,446,000, which constituted the census of 1763 ; making the deaths, in these ten years, to be 1 to 4.9, or very little more than one-fifth of the population. THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 19 You should be aware, however, that the ap- parently lessened mortality depends solely on the condition that this was a permanent increase ; for, if it were merely the consequence of more healthy years, it would be balanced by the additional deaths occurring in years of disease, or from other circum- stances of national calamity. The increase here supposed would double the population in little more than a century ; but of such doublings we have no authentic record : and even your most ignorant dis- ciples will scarcely contend that the whole popula- tion of Europe is eight times as great as it was three hundred years ago ; or that it is doubled since the age of Queen Anne. If we knew it to be so, we should have to lament that genius and learning have had so small a share of the advantages of the Geometrical Ratio. You think it strange thatSwedenshouldbe chosen " as a specimen of the natural increase of popula- tion* ;" and a foreign Reviewer, who differs from you in every other particular, has candidly express- ed the same ideaf- The reason for appealing to Sweden is not difficult to discover. There is no other nation with which we are acquainted, that has published such minute reports of its popula- * Edinburgh Review, page 37 J. t Le Coiurkr Fran<;aii. I) 'i so A LK T'lrjf TO tion. The Swedish Tables were resortetl to for the purpose of endeavouring to discover the law — not the amount — of increase. There was no occasion to thrust forward tlie slowness of the progression in that country ; for in as far as a continued increase, by procreation only, is concerned, we have no where to look but to the back settlements of the United States. Your three volumes on Population were written, on purpose, to show why the Geometrical Ratio exists in no other corner of the globe. But our present business does not relate to the propagation of the race, but to the deaths of those who are pro- pagated ; and certainly, with respect to the health and longevity of its inhabitants, Sweden does not yield to any other portion of Europe. Previously to theappearance of the Swedish cen- suses, which were first published in this country by Dr. Price, we had no account, from a real survey, of the different ages of a native po|)ulatiGn. Our Tables of Life-Annuities were calculated from such bills of mortality as gave the ages of the dead ; and, had these been sufficiently extensive, they must have given the same results as an actual enumeration : for it appears to be a law of nature that all the born must die, and, if we cannot count the race while they are alive, we have only to attend to the Sexton when he digs their graves. The Actuaries of In- surance-offices are well aware of the scantiness of THE REV. T. R. MALTIiUS. 21 the materials from which their Tables have been formed, and of the discrepancies that exist among them ; but, nevertheless, in almost all, there is a re- markable coincidence between the scale of life which they represent and that which has since been found to exist in a census. I speak here of coun- try parishes, for with respect to large towns it is well known that nothing on the subject can be ac- curately ascertained. These are the common sewers and drains of life, and overflow or stagnate accord- ing as the streams descend from the hills. By referring to the Tables above mentioned as they are separately given in the " Observations on Reversionary Payments," or in the lucid and com- parative arrangement of Mr. Baily*, it will be found that, in the greater number, there is almost exactly a fourth of the population under the age of ten years. Among those Tables, that of the Parish of Holy-CrosSj in the county of Salop, is repeatedly mentioned by Dr. Price, as " the most complete and accurate that ever was publishedf." The num- ber of inhabitants was nearly stationary for more than twenty years ; and the slight variations that occurred were minutely traced to known emigra- tions and immigrations. In this parish, too, we have a census for every five years, distinguishing the * Daily on the Doctrine of Life-Annuities, &c., page 522 — 527. t Price t)ii Rev. P;iy., vol. ii. pages .S-l, 103 — 10,'j, and 397 — 103. 22 A Ll.TTEK TO sexes anil, occasioimllv, the ages. The tbllowing are some of the results that are applicahle to the present inquiry : In 1760 the number of inhabitants was 1048 In 1770 . . . . 1046 Of these there were under 10 248 Therefore, those tliat were alive of the census of 17G0, being all above 10, were . . . 798 And tlie dead in these 10 years must have been 250 or 1 in 4.19 of the wliole number. Again : In 1770 the census was . . . 1046 In 1780 . . . . 1115 Of those there were under 10 . 290 Therefore there were alive of the census of 1770 . . . 823 And there had died .... 223 or 1 in 4.69 of the whole. This increase of 1780 (and, consequently, the apparently less projiortion of deaths) is expressly stated to have been an influx from other parishes. The higher number of those below 10, being 1 in t).8 of the whole, is (as will be shown hereafter) no unusual consequence of immigration. The censuses of (ireat Britain in 1801 and 1811 THE TvEV. T. H. :MALT11US. 23 are, on account of the wantof ages, of little value in the present investigation. To procure an accurate enumeration of the inhabitants of a country, is a more difficult task than some closet speculators are apt to imagine. The first attempt, in particular, must be generally defective. Beside the dread of an impost or a conscription, the prejudices of ages tempt to the pious fraud of concealing the amount. The peasant reads in his Bible that it is a crime to number the people, and it is notorious that not a few were influenced by this belief. Solomon says that " there is nothing new under the sun." Were there, then, political economists, even in those days, to frighten the rich and indolent with the bugbear of a superabundant population of their slaves ? Having heard of these censuses, you hasten to inform the reader of your Review that, to the infinite danger of the capitalist, the labourers have now got into the way of doubling their number every 56 years*. Had you seen the official reports on the subject, you would have known that these enume- rations were made in 1801 and 1811, and not in 1800 and J 8 10 as you state ; and, further, you would have had the authority of Mr. Rickman him- self, who drew up and edited these reports, that the population of 1801, was ''taken too lowf." • Review, page 370. f Observations on tin Rtsull!' of tin- ropnlation Act, 11 Gcoi III. pages 4 and 9. 24 A LKTTKIJ TO Tliis last point should have been settled before you ventured to calculate the rate of increase, from your Tables of compound interest. You say, in the same page of your Review, *' that in many country parishes of England, the *' number of births is nearly double the number of " deaths." Now, according to Mr. Rickman's ac- count above referred to, those Registers must be utterly worthless; and, had you looked at page xxvi of his '* Preliminary Observations" to the " Abstract of Answers &c." for 1811, you would have seen that tlie increase in the preceding ten years, as calculated from those Registers, did not amount to above two thirds of wltat appeared in the actual returns. The Census of last year, whatever mistakes may have been committed in the execution, was certainly rational in its princi[)le. Notwithstanding the ap- parent addition of numbers, I am still sceptical as to the rapidity of increase in the population of the British Islands ; but, had the evidence been clear to my mind, I should not have hesitated to have acknowledged it, for my object is the discovery of facts and not the support of any particular hypo- thesis. That mankind can increase in a geometrical ratio, I hold to be impossible; that they arc capable (jf increase, and, at different times and places, have increased, I do not deny ; l)ut the utmost possible THE UEV. T. R. MALTIiUS. 25 rapidity of increase is, assuredly, not to be measured by theories : — it can only be known (if it ever can be known) from observation. Some remarks on our late Census will be attached to this letter ; but the results, to whatever side they may tend, can be no subject of triumph to either party. They are extra-judicial in the dispute between us ; not having been in existence, either when Mr. Godwin's book was published, or when you dictated your Review. For the present, then, I proceed with other docu- ments. Leaving Europe, you next endeavour to discover, by means of your reasojiing powers, the proportion of deaths that would occur, in any given American population, in the course of ten years; and, in doing so, the train of investigation is so peculiarly your own, that I cannot forbear quoting it, for the benefit of those who may be yet unacquainted with the IMalthusian Method. " On the annual mortality of the population of the United States, writers have differed. Mr. Barton, in the Transactions of the Society at Philadelphia, has stated it to be 1 in 45 ; while Mr. Winter and others, without re- ferring to anxf documents of authority, have made it as high as 1 in 40. ]\e should suppose, from the peculiar structure of the American population and the great excess of the births above the deaths, that it was less than Mr. Barton's estimate, as, even upon his estimate, the expec- £ qQ A LKTTKU TO tation of life would not be so liigh as in Sweden; which, considering the numbers which 7nitst die in the latter country, from the consequences of scarcity and bad food, is making a large allowance for the greater natural un- healthiness of America. It is comfortable, however, to get rid of these sweeping and conjectural estimates, by an appeal to recorded facts ; and we find that the mortality of Philadelphia, according to bills published by the Board of Health for eight years, from 1807 to 1814 inclusive, was found to be no more than I in 43, as stated in the valuable work of Dr. Seybert. And if the mortality of the greatest towns in America be less than 1 in 40, zee should expect that the mortality of the whole country would be less than 1 in 50; and this is the conjecture oi Dr. Price*." This first step being thus clearly demonstrated, you draw the following consequence. " If we had American tables, formed like those of Dr. Price for Sweden, we should expect, that, on account of the peculiar structure of the American population, arising from the great excess of births above deaths, it uould turn out, that the proportion which a given population, without any fresh accession of births, would lose in ten years, in- stead of being rather more than |, would not be more than ^; in which case, the amount of immigration annually would, by Mr. Booth's own rule, be only between seven and eight thousand, instead of above sixteen thousand ; and the period of doubling would come near to the calcu- lation of Dr. Seybertt." — " He (Dr. Seybert) calculates * Review, pages 3G5, 860. f Review, page 307. I HE REV. T. K. MALTIIUS. 27 that «o more than GOOO could have arrived annually from 1790 to 1810*." The words "calculation" and " calculates,'' iiere introduced, savour of another school ; but to free you from the imputation of old-fashioned reasoning, I shall give the calculations, lo which you refer, ^•er- batim, as they were made by the learned Doctor. " The free population could only be affected ]jy the emigrants from Eurojie : zee xc'dl suppose that (JOOO of them arrived annually, from 1790 to 1810. In 1790 the free population of the United States amounted to 3,223,629 persons, and in 1810 it was 6,048,539; the actual in- crease, in the twenty years, was 2,824,910, from which deduct 1 20,000, yb;- the onigrants zcho arrived during that period, and allow for their increase at the extraordinary rate of 5 per cent, per annum, or 60,000 for the twenty years, making the aggregate from the emigrant stock 180,000, which, when deducted from the total actual in- crease above mentioned, will leave 2,644,910 persons for the augmentation, independent of any aid from abroad ; or the duplication of the free inhabitants, without the ad- ditions from the emigrants, would only require about four fifdis of a year more than it did when they were added. The preceding view satisfies us that, during twenty years, our population has been immaterially augmented by the emigrants ; and that, in this respect, we may consider oui-- selves independent of foreign nations^." * Ileview, page 3G9. t Scybcrl's Statistical Annah of I he United Slater, pages 29, 30. E 2 28 A LET'I'l-K TO In Cocker's Aritlimetic, there is what is called t!ie Rule of False, Avhich proceeds entirely upon suppositions. Both you and Dr. Seybert have well studied this rule; but, being the close of Mr. Cocker's course, it seems to have been the boundary of your mathematical career. In your vocabulary, to calcu- late is not to pore until you are half blind over arithmetical figures, but, by a single figure of rhe- toric, to make a bold assertion and trust to the cre- dulity of your readers that you will be believed. This slap-dash (or what you would call *' comfort- able") way of arriving at a conclusion, is, I dare say, the consequence of that " general information" of which you so proudly boast. You reach, by a single bound, that height of learning, to which ordi- nary minds can arrive only by patient toil. In these venturous springs, however, it is possible that you may sometimes overleap your mark, and I suspect that you have done so in the instance before us. I have said that a fourth part of the persons included in the American Census of 1800 must have died before 1810; and you have satisfied yourself \h£ii there did not die above an eighth. I have atten- tively considered your shortly-slated evidence : — bear with the more lengthened manner in which I offer mine. The foundation of all your reasoning (as already quoted) is that the mortality of Philadelphia, from THE REV. T. U. MALTIIUS. C9 1807 to 1814, was only 1 in 43 of the population " as stated in the valuable work of Dr. Seybcrt," and from this you infer that the mortality of the whole country would be less than 1 in 50. Now I cannot conceive how the proportion of 1 in 43 of such a place as Philadelphia, has any thing to do with the loss, by death, which the members of any parti- cular Census, would (without additions) sustain in a certain number of years. Should a country, con- taining 400,000 inhabitants, cease to have any fur- ther increase and consequently be allowed to be depopulated by the course of nature, and if in ten years this people should muster only 300,000, I might surely say that they had lost a fourth of tlieir number. This fourth would not be exterminated by an equable annual reduction, for it would vary, from year to year, with the changing value of life. But if, after the Census is made, the population, in- stead of being limited like a tontine to the survi- vors, were increased by an indefinite but a large and continued immigration, (from other nations as well as from the cradle), and if I should be told that my now increased society lost annually 1 in 50 of their number, how many of the old and how many of the new inhabitants bemg left indetermi- nate, I acknowledge that I should find it a difficult task, even with tlie assistance of their ages, to se- jtaratc the death?. This, however, is the jn'oblcai 30 A LETTER TO Avhicli you have attempted to solve, for the pur}K)se of proving that I did not understand the subject. Had there been no increase except from births, something might have been done by attending to the ages of the living and the dead ; but the influx of strangers of all ages, is so great into Philadelphia as to make this discrimination of no avail. The follo\vin«: Table will be a sufficient illustration. Census of the Citij and Parish of Philadelphia in 1800 and in 1810, 7wt including the Liberties. Ages of theLiving. In 1800. In 1810. 1 aiales. Females. In all. Males. Females. In all. Under 10 10 to 16 16 to 26 26 to 45 Above 45 4,485 2,256 4,518 5,247 2,118 4,736 2,424 4,626 4,233 2,312 9,C21 4,680 9,144 9,480 4,430 5,966 3,170 6,000 5,581 2,523 6,219 3,272 6,293 5,479 2,865 12,185 6,442 12,293 11,060 5,388 Total 18,624 18,331 36,955 23,240 24,128 47,368 Had there been no addition except by births, those of 1810, above 10 years of age, would have represented the population of 1 800 diminished by the deaths of 10 years. The Census of 1800 was .... ^6,955 The number in 1810 above 1 years was '35, 1 83 And the difference 1,772 would have shown the deaths in 10 years, had there THE REV. T. U. MALTIIUS. 31 been no additions from without. But this paucity of deaths is so very improbable, that even you will doubt it. Further, — all above l6 in 1800 must have been above Q6 in 1810. The number above 16 in 1800 was . 23,054 Those above 26 in 1810 were . . 16,448 The difference 6,606 is a decrease in 10 years in the proportion of 1 to 3,48 of all the population above 16 years; a pro- portion which you will hardly allow to have arisen from deaths, though we shall find a similar propor- tion of decrease in other states and in other nations. Again, setting aside immigration, tiie young per- sons under 16, in the Census of 1800, must have been all between 10 and 26 in that of 1810, with the exception of those who died in the interim. The number under 16 in 1800 was 13,901 Those between 10 and 26' in 1 8 10 were 1 3,824 77 So we must believe that only 77 of the 13,901 had died in the course of these 10 years, unless we grant that the places of the dead had been sup- plied from other quarters. These censuses might be com[)ared in various other ways; but, turn them as we will, it is impos- sible to make them the solid foundation of any rea- soning on the point in dispute. For my part, I should as soon rest on data derived from the door- 32 A i.inTEH TO keepers of Drury Lane, or from an annual census of the crowds at Bartholomew Fair. But although the censuses of such fluctuating masses of population can render us litUe or no ser- vice, in our investigation of the law of the extinction by death of a given body of human beings, yet something may be learned from Bills of Mortality, wherever they may be kept, when they give us the ages of the dead ; and it is from such documents that all our tables of the Expectation of Life in Europe have been drawn up. In a j)aragraph of your Review which I have already quoted (at p. 26) you lament the want of American tables, formed like those of Dr. Price for Sweden, and from which you seem to expect that your theory would be con- firmed. " Then have thy wish ! " Such tables were calculated and are adopted by the ** Pennsylvanian Company for Insurance on Lives and granting An- nuities ;" and they are printed in Dr. Seybert's book, though you do not choose to mention them. There are two sets. One founded on the Records of the Episcopal Church, and the other on the Bills of jMortality, published by the Board of Health of Philadelphia. The former gives the Expectation of Life somewhat more in the lower ages and less in the higlier, but they are not otherwise materially diflerent. I shall here copy them, and compare them with the " Expectations of Life" in Sweden and Northampton, extracted from Dr. Price. THE REV. T. n. MALTHUS. Expectation of Life itj Philadelphia compared with Sweden and ISorthampton. Philadelphia. 1 Piiiladelpliia. Sweden. North- Board ol Ei)i»copal Cliurcli. Sweden. North. Board of Episcopal Age. Healtli. 'anii)ton. Age. Health. Church. amptoii. 34.42 25.18 46 17-64 18.99 20.98 20.02 1 25.96 30.91 42.95 32.74 47 17.44 18.55 20.35 19.51 2 32.92 34.43 44.92 37.79 48 17.24 18.14 19.72 19.00 3 36.80 35.74 46.111 39.55 49 17.02 17.73 19.09 18.49 4 36.85 37.30 46.78 1 40.58 50 16.82 17.32 18.46 17.99 5 36.94 37.91 46.79 40.84 51 16.66 16.92 17-87 17.50 6 37.02 38.GO 46.66 41.07 52 16.31 16.52 17-29 17.02 7 36.42 38.24 46.43 41-03 53 15.97 16.13 16.70 16.54 8 35.83 37-88 46.07 40.79 54 15.64 15.75 16.12 16.06 9 35.23 37-50 45.61 40.36 55 15.33 15.40 15-53 15.58 10 34.59 37.12 45.07 39.78 56 14.97 15.04 14-95 15.10 11 33.95 36.74 44.38 39.14 57 14.62 14.68 14.37 14.63 12 33.20 36.09 43.70 38.49 58 14.31 14.35 13.79 14.15 13 32.44 35.43 43.01 37.83 59 14.00 14.04 13-21 13.08 14 31.68 34.77 42.33 57.17 60 13-71 13.75 12.63 13.21 15 30.92 34-10 41-64 36.51 61 13.44 13.48 12.12 12.75 16 30.16 33.43 40.92 35.85 62 13.06 13.04 11.62 12.28 17 29.38 , 32.73 40.19 35.20 63 12.68 12.60 11.11 11.81 18 28.60 32.02 39.47 34-58 64 12.25 12.17 10.61 11.35 19 27.82 31.31 38.74 33.99 65 11.82 11.70 10.10 10.88 20 27.04 30.60 38.02 33.41 66 11.41 11.23 9.62 10.42 21 26.25 29.88 37-33 32.90 67 11.00 10.76 9.15 9-96 22 25.57 29.40 36.64 32.39 68 10.60 10.30 8.67 9.50 23 25.19 •28.93 35.94 31.88 69 10.21 9.83 8.20 9.05 24 24.67 28.46 35.27 31.36 70 9.83 9.37 7-72 8.60 25 24.14 27.99 34-58 30.85 71 9-48 8.92 7.32 8.17 26 23.61 27.,50 33.91 30.33 72 915 8.54 6.89 7.74 27 23.08 27.00 33.23 i 29.82 73 8.84 8.16 6.53 7-33 28 22.55 2G.50 32.56 29.30 74 8.47 7.75 6.23 6.92 29 22.01 25-99 31.88 28.79 75 8.23 7.43 5.91 6.54 30 21.48 25.50 31.21 28.27 76 7.78 7.06 5.59 6.18 31 20.93 24.99 30.57 27.76 77 7.50 6.72 5.28 5.83 32 20.65 24-59 29-94 27.24 78 7-25 6.40 4.96 5.48 33 20.40 24.19 29.50 26.72 79 7.07 6.15 4.61 5.11 34 20.16 23.80 28.67 26.20 80 6.97 5.95 4.28 4.75 35 19.95 23.40 28.03 25.68 81 7.00 5.86 4.01 441 36 19.76 23.01 27.31 25.16 82 6.65 5.40 3.80 4.09 37 19.57 22.64 26.68 24.64 83 6.33 4.94 3.57 3.80 38 19.40 22.23 26.01 24.12 84 6.00 4.50 3.39 3.58 39 19.25 21.83 25.33 23.60 85 5.S5. 4.07 3.23 3.37 40 19.15 21.44 24.66 23.08 86 5.50 3.66 3.09 3.19 41 19.09 21.05 24.05 22.56 87 5.17 3.30 2.92 3.01 42 18.87 20.80 23-44 22.04 88 4.92 3.00 2.71 2.86 43 18.54 20.22 22.83 21.54 89 4.75 2.83 2.43 2.66 44 18.18 19.82 22.22 21.03 90 4.73 2.05 2.11 45 17.91 19.42 21.61 20.52 91 1.71 2.09 54 A LETTER TO If then these American calculations be correct (and the managers of the Pennsylvanian Assurance Office must believe so) it would appear that the value of life in Philadelphia is less than in almost any part of Europe. This to be sure would be no evidence that the population did not increase, even by procreation alone (for that depends not so much on a lengthened life as on the proportion of females who arrive at the age of womanhood, and the ardour with which they enter into the wicked compact of marriage) but it may make us " suspect" that the number of members of an American society, if de- prived of further increase, would decline more ra- pidly than in the old world. From suspicion I now proceed to proof. Assuming acertain number of simultaneous births, the following Table will show the proportion that remain alive at every age, until the whole are ex- tinguished, according to the *' expectations" of the preceding page. The columns for Sweden and Northan)pton are, with a change of Radix, copied from Dr. Price. I calculated the American ones from the Philadelphian values of life, by reversing the method by which such Tables of Expectations are made: THE ilEV. T. R. MALTHUS. 35 Probabilities of Life in Philadelphia, Sweden, and Northampton. Philadelphia. Sweden. North- ] Philadelphia. weden. North- Board of Episcopal ?oard of Episcopal i Age. Health. Church. ampton. Age. Health. Church. impton. 1000 1000 1000 46 180 243 414 272 1 755 755 780 743 47 172 235 407 265 2 575 657 730 625 48 164 228 400 259 3 500 615 695 582 49 157 221 392 252 4 486 573 671 553 50 149 213 385 245 5 472 550 656 536 51 142 206 376 238 6 458 526 644 521 52 137 199 367 231 7 453 517 634 509 53 131 191 358 224 8 448 508 625 499 54 126 184 349 217 9 443 500 618 492 55 120 177 340 210 10 439 492 611 487 56 115 170 331 203 11 434 484 606 483 57 110 162 322 196 12 431 479 602 478 58 105 155 312 189 13 428 474 597 474 59 100 148 303 182 14 425 470 594 470 60 95 140 293 175 15 422 465 590 465 61 91 133 282 168 16 418 461 586 461 62 86 127 271 161 17 415 457 582 457 63 82 122 259 154 18 412 453 578 452 64 78 117 247 147 19 409 449 574 446 65 75 112 235 140 20 405 444 570 441 66 71 107 224 133 21 402 440 565 434 67 68 101 212 126 22 397 433 560 428 68 64 96 200 119 •23 388 425 555 421 69 60 92 187 113 24 380 417 551 415 70 57 86 175 106 25 372 409 546 409 71 53 81 162 99 26 365 401 541 402 72 49 76 149 92 27 358 394 535 396 73 46 71 135 85 28 351 387 530 389 74 43 65 121 78 29 344 380 525 oC-) 75 39 60 108 71 30 337 373 519 376 76 36 55 96 65 31 330 565 513 370 77 33 50 85 58 32 318 357 507 364 78 30 45 74 52 33 307 348 501 357 79 27 40 65 46 34 296 339 495 351 80 23 35 56 40 35 284 331 488 344 81 20 30 47 35 36 273 322 482 338 82 18 27 38 30 37 262 313 477 331 83 17 25 31 25 38 251 305 471 325 84 15 22 24 20 39 240 296 465 318 85 13 19 19 16 40 229 289 459 312 86 12 17 14 12 41 218 280 453 305 87 10 14 11 9 42 209 272 445 299 88 9 11 8 7 43 202 265 437 292 89 8 8 6 5 44 195 258 430 285 90 6 5 4 45 187 250 422 279 91 1 3 3 F2 a 6 A LI' IT UK 10 The American Tables not giving the expectations at birth leave the deaths under a year old rather uncertain. I have endeavoured to accommodate them to the same Radix riOOO births) as those of Sweden and Northampton. In that of the Board of Health, on looking at the decrease between one and two years, it is indubitable that the births must have been above a thousand, and I have written down that number so that I may be within the mark, for the lesser number is in your favour. The Radix of the Episcopal Church we shall, if you please, leave, for the present, undetermined. The following ob- servations then refer solely to the probabilities from the Board of Health ; and it may be noticed in the outset that as the numbers in the Table mark the survivors, of 1000 simultaneous births, at the be- ginning of each year, the arithmetical mean between each pair of succeeding numbers will be the average number of the living throuLihout the interveninu twelve months. The number of all the living in- cluded within certain a^es is dven in the different Censuses. The following are the particulars for 1800. Census of the United States in 1 800. Under 10 years of age 1,48^.^93 From 10 to 16' 666,670 From l6to 26. . . 794,885 From 26 to 45 838,016 Above 45 517,512 Whole Free Ponulation 4,306,476 THE KLV. ■]'. R. MALTIIUS. Zl Now in order to discover the loss Avhich this multi- tude must have sustained by death, between ISOOand 18 10, it is necessary to compare each of its five divi- sions with the Board of Health 1 able of probability. In the Table referred to, the numbers giv^en are those, of the thousand births, which are alive at the heginning of each successive year. If we wish to Jinovv the average of the living throughout the whole of any particular year, we must take the arithmetical mean between the number at the beginnino; and at the end of such year, which will be a near approxi- mation. The nunjber alive at 1 year for instance is 755 and at 2 years 575, the mean of which is QQS^ the average number between 1 and 2 years old. This number, 14 years afterwards, will be reduced to the average between \3 and \Q years of age, that is, to 420, having lost 225 of their number. In the same manner, if we take the means between every two numbers under 10 years of age, the sum of these means will represent the population under ten, on the supposition of a regular succession of a thou- sand annual births. This sum is 5310, which, in JO years, will be reduced to 4216, the medium population between the ages of 10 and 20 years. This proportion of mortality (53 JO to 4216) exists on the supposition of the number of births being stationary : — if they were continually increasing this proportion would increase, and if they decreased 202921 58 A LETTER TO the proportion would diminish. We have the amount of the American Census under 10 years, but we know not the numbers of each respective year. Both you and I however, though we ascribe it to different causes, allow that the American population has been increasing — that the births in 1810 were more than in 1800; and, therefore, if we take the proportion abovementioned, we shall be in no danger of rating the mortality too high. This remark applies only to these early ages where the expectation varies so much in 2 or 3 years. In the higher ages the difference is less material. If then 53 10 be diminished to 42 16 in the course of 10 years, 1,489,393 (the amount under 10 in the Census of 1800) will have been reduced to 1,182,538, the number which should have appeared between 10 and 20, in the Census of 1810, had there been no immigration. Calculating the other parts of the Census of 1800, in the same manner, we shall find the de- crease by deaths, in 10 years, as follows : Census of 1800. Living iu 1810. Under 10 years . . 1,489,393 From 10 to 16 . . 066,670 From 16 to 26 . . 791,885 From 26 to 45 . . t;38,016 AIjovc 45 . . 517,512 Between 10 and 20 1,182,538 Between 20 and 26 602,806 Between 26 and 36 019,146 Between 36 and 55 563,438 Above 55 282,780 Free White Popula" 4,306,176 Alive in 1810 3,280,714 THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 39 Subtracting the number that are alive in 1810 from the population of 1800, we have 1,025,762, the number of the dead, being to the whole Census as 1 to 4.2, nearly ; so that, according to this Table, with the allowances which we have made, one fourth of the population must have died in ten years. A calculation from the records of the Episcopal Church will be very little different, and it will serve to amuse your leisure. You will probably question the authority of these Tables of Expectation ; but have you access to more certain documents ? In all our reasonings we must trust to some data, unless we would recite our dreams and expect to be believed. What ability and attention have been bestowed upon their con- struction I know not, but surely the Company for whom they were formed have no interest in their falsification, for they purchase as well as sell An- nuities ; and, moreover, their business is not con- fined to the city of Philadelphia. Neither is it pro- bable that any place could have been better chosen for such observations. It is less resorted to by emigrants than New York and many other cities ; and, although it was founded 140 years ago, its po- pulation is not yet greater than the second rate towns in Europe. It may be remarked, too, that it is by no means certain that the thinly peopled parts of America are the most favourable to health 40 A LETTER TO and longevity. Newly settled districts have many disadvantages in this respect; and it is doubtful whether human life is more prolonged in the prairies of the Illinois than in the fens of Lincolnshire. In tiie third Vol. of the American Philosophical Transactions, a volume from which you have quoted both in your great work and in your review, there are some Tables by Mr. Barton, which show a re- markable coincidence in the probabilities of life be- tween Philadelphia and the town of Salem in Mas- sachusetts. Two of these Tables I shall here insert. That for Philadelphia is from bills of mortality for 22 years previous to 1 79 1 ," and the one for Salem is for the years 1782, 1783, 1789 and 1790. Mr. Barton's authority as a calculator is not great, but it may be taken at what it is worth. Philadelphia. Salcni. Age. Living. Decrease Living. Dccrcabe 1000 388 1000 5 612 51 445 5 555 44 555 50 10 5\\ 46 .505 35 20 4Gj 97 470 128 30 368 98 342 90 40 270 92 252 83 50 178 64 169 40 60 114 62 12y 35 70 52 32 94 68 80 20 14 26 90 6 THE REV. T. R. MALTIIUS. 41 From what has been said I have no doubt but you are already convinced that you mistook " the peculiar structure of the American population ;" and that you are heartily ashamed of the overbear- ing manner of your Review. I must, however, beg your patience a little longer, while I endeavour to procure some evidence from the Censuses of those States which have been least affected by immigra- tion. 42 A LF-.TIT.H TO 2. Decrease of the Census of 1800, in nine of the States, when retaken in 1810. c .£c 3 •-• C- _ c .- o — t^oc:^' — Ci CI C< -- OC CO — 'O 'T — 'O rj o cc '^■5 'O r^ O rr 'sD r^ "O 0' 'O s-5 -o r^ — ' -^ OJ Ol G^ 'O CO 0> CO Gl GJ" d partly in le number 10, is here imation to O a i c " ■^ a» »-• h. o o £3 t>- 00 00 t>- r^ '^ o 'O CO oooooooco CO CO 2 k'as include Iierefore tl trict in 1 8 est approx n of Columbia % Virginia, and bund in that di^ lia, as the near Numb, above 10 years old Decrease, in 1810. — 'T (^ CO -r cr, o — 'O o -^ o 'O o '- i^ — o) Cl 'O CI Cl — ' O "O OD C> tr" co*^ ci" — " c-T tT ■^'" •^'' o^ GJ 00 •o ojrtTrG'cot^'^fcoo Oi 01 >0 Oi 00 CC O >0 CO -^^ oi ^^ O 'O^ co^ — ^ c^ c^ c^ '-^ ->" or co" o" '^ c*" 1^ CI 'O CO "0 CO 'O J^ '^ CO CO -^ — " or: G» — CO CO the populatio and partly in ears of age, lat of Virgil CO CO — 'O O) O "^ '^ «o C. CO G> '^ 'O CO l>- CC 'O CO -T^ l>- Cl^ 00^ CO 'O t^ CJ^ CO tT ^^ 'i^ c^ 'o" oT r-T o" — Otcr. -rc' — coc^ "T C» ~ O' 'O CO — GC Gl 00 C1^ In 1800 Maryland above 10 y added to t accuracy. 1. Decrease of the Census of 1790, in nine of the States, when retaken in 1800. o •Ii 'O -r j^ j>- r~ Gi CJ 1-^ ^ CO CO '^t CO CO -rj CO so OOOCOOOOO 1 — .— Ir— .-^r— r-«r-(.— 1.— 1 G) 2 The proportion of decrease in S. Carolina, so widely diflTerent from tliat of the other States, has affected t!ic average. Tlie Census of this State for 1790 «as so very irregularly taken, that the returns were not completed until more than a year after the Reports had been received from all the other States of the Union. See Trans, of Araer, Phil. Soc. toI. iii. p. 134. Numb, above 10 years old Decrease, iii 1800. j «^ — "0 — 'O 'O CO G> 00 CTi O CO CO CO >0 O CO O) ■^ 'O CO CI CO 00 '<0 CO Cj — <£ -^ or cf -o" -i^ cT 'o" 00 r-CiOlcO'TTr^^JO O 'O CO C) t>- Ci 'O t- CO '■J-J^ ClO^l-^Cl l^ "0^ 'O^ -^ -T .ff _r ,C cT gT i-T >r^ -^ CTi -^ 1^ G» CO 'O CO — G» G* r- -" — CO 0» — G* CO o .2 rt '^ CO CO CO tT GO cJ CO CO CO ^ t: ji o o o o o o o o o o o »^ o o jT *J +-» •»-> ■»-> -*-> ■4-) •(-J 4-> o ^^ ■ . ^^ ■ ^^ 1 . p^ §2 CO o ^ ^ GO ^ "0 o w^ ^ ^ en 00 ■^ r^ ^-* CO o o r^ Ol •Z3 CO CO GO CI •V •s CO o^ CO ■^ ^•^ q. CS r-t o CO o o" CO CO O "=3^ cf O t^ Is <5 ■<3" OJ ■^ CO VO CO 12! p£8 a CO ^^ CI CO I^ G> CO CO CI CI 00 r— 1 I* o^ o CO CO »N *\ •s •\ •s •\ C B ° 2 C3 ^3 C^ co" CO CO r^ t^ !>r o" F-H o O "-« CO Ol o r^ p-H l> r^ CO o <: p-< '"' r— 1 00 .s CO ,_ QO r^ o o CO w^ I^ CO CO^ ^ co^ o CO 1— > CO 00 tT CO^ r-T «0 t-T •\ of Ot co" n CJ CO CO Oi c^ t— t i3 CO CTi OJ '"' "^ c^ ""^ •V CO CO 0* CO CO 00 CO Ol - CO CO ^H- ■Si'Z CO r>^ TT* 'O* •^ '* ■^* '^ CO* ■"^ ;« O o 13 o o O 2 o o o 2 _c 2 '^ "^ s §2 CO TT CO Ol ^ o wo OJ o CO ^ o CO CI CO ■o 00 CO o >o o •;3 CO s r-t o. o^ o^ CO W5 Ol r-^ 1^ C3 .-< O CO •^ in, co" 'fT ■"cT o CI ccT ■^ Us f28 p CM CO CJ CO ^ lO ^ !^ CD Ol fl^ 00 CO CO CI 'cr 00 CI CO CO 00 ^'- §o UO i^ o»^ »o 00 o^ Ol CO CO 'V •s •\ •\ ^ °.2 O 00 Oi ^O ccT Oi Q) Ol r>r of <5 — 1 00 Oi CO !> CO o 00 .s r>. !>. CO CO Ol o CO Oi 00 w:; CO v iQ . ^ -^t o o Oi I^ 00 CO CO 1^ -1 o t^ cc co^ c» wo uo «o I— < o^ u ^ o •s •V •\ •\ wo*^ o . C?i I-H r^ ■^ t^ r^ wo •^^ p ro r-t c CO C2< , T-* o Ol o 1— 1 wo l^ o U3 QJ T3 c/3 C 4-> >^ rt m ^ ^ 0.) G ri O; O 2 3 «5 G re c S-i C C^ o G O 55 > Q c/3 4$ A LLTTER TO It may be objected to these Tables that they do not include the whole of the American States ; but if in tlicse the mortality be such as the Censuses represent, there is little reason for believing that it is less in any other portion of the Union. They contain from a half to two-thirds of the whole po- pulation, and are, besides, the only States that could have been selected, for all the others are so over- whelmed with immigrants as to defy every compa- rison of numbers or of ages. As far as the Censuses teach us, the inhabitants of the back-settlements never die, and, in some cases, they are found to double their numbers in little more than a twelve- month ! Butyou will say that this decrease of a fourth of the population of the older States is, in a great degree, occasioned by emigration to the new ; — that only an eighth part could have died, and the other eighth had emigrated. This is asserting that the 2,248,728, which w ere mustered in tlie Census of 1 800, could have lost only 281,091 by the year 1810; and, that of the diminution in the Tables (581,724) there must have been above 300,000, the?! living in other parts of the Union, and surrounded too (as conse- quent upon the supposition) by 150,000 children, propagated by them in the course of these 10 years. Thus 450,000, nearly a fifth of the whole of the po- pulation of the nine older States, were transferred to THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 47 the newly planted territories, along with all the emigrants that had arrived from Europe, at what- ever ports they might have landed. This transfer, too, must have been made, in the form of an equable poll-tax, upon all these States. Each had con- tributed an equal proportion, and that proportion must have been taken, not at random, but with the nicest discrimination, from both sexes and from every age; for the same relative proportion in all their parts prevails, in each of the States, between the Census of 1810 and that of 1800. Notwith- standing this extensive migration, there still appears an increase between the Censuses of more than 220,000, being (according to your phraseology) ] per cent, in the course of ten years. It should be particularly attended to, that all this increase, as well as the migration, must have arisen from pro- creation only ; for, though almost all the European emigrants land in these States, they must not have settled there, otherwise your proportion of deaths could not have obtained. Taking for granted your rate of mortality and consequent emigration from these nine States, and adding to this emigration your acknowledged arri- vals from the Old World, together with the popula- tion acquired by naturalization and by territorial acquisitions, whether by treaty or by recent admis- sions into the Union, the excess of the Census of 48 A LETTER TO 1810 above that of 1800 may be accounted for, without supposing the inhabitants of the new States to have done more than keep up their race. With your proportion of deaths, the geometrical ratio would thus be transported from the back-settlements to the maritime districts, and the Genius of evil would leave the banks of the Mississippi to wander on the shores of Connecticut. But there is authority which you dare not dispute against this increase of the Eastern States : " Along the sea-coast, which would naturally be first inhabited, the period of doubling was about 35 years, and in some of the maritime towns the population was abso- lutely at a stand. From the late Census made in America, it appears that, taking all the States together, they have still continued to double their numbers every Q.5 years ; and as the whole population is now so great as not to be materially affected by the emigrations from Europe, and as it is known that, in some of the towns and districts near the sea-coast, the progress of population has been comparatively slow ; it is evident, that in the interior of the country in general, the period of doubling from procreation only must hav6 been considerably less than Q.5 years-." Again, " But, in reality, the condition of the Eastern States, does not now apply to Mr. Malthus's proposition. His pro- position, as we understand it, i.^ this ; that if the obvious causes which check marriage, and occasion premature • Malthus on Population; vol. ii jxigcs 194 and 195. THE REV. T. n. MALI H US. 49 mortality, were removed in such a way as they are actually found to be removed in some countries for short periods, the population would go on increasing at a rale which would double the numbers in less than twenty-five years. But, in the Eastern States, the towns are now large, and some of them so unhealthy as scarcely to keep up their numbers. It is known that they are subject to the yellow fever, which seems to prevail only in towns of some size, and not to extend itself into the country. And further, there is reason to believe, that these portions of the Ame- rican population are not exempt from those vices which tend to render marriage less frequent, less early, and les3 fruitful than in the country. The Western States, therefore, alone answer the conditions of Mr. Malthus's proposition, and alone furnish a practical illustration of the rate at which population may increase when unchecked*." This admission, thus repeatedly and advisedly made, " sets at rest your principle of population." That you should have made this concession in your earlier work, when you were not aware of the con- sequence to be drawn, is not to be wondered at ; but that you should have reiterated it in 1821, while you were endeavouring to prove that I had mistaken the number of the dead, is truly astonishing ! In the drama of life, the born enter and the dyin there. In the nine States which wc have repeatedly referred to, the Census of 1800 was recruited, in the course of 10 years, by above 800,000 little emigrants from the cradle, (being 35 per cent, of augmentation,) who appeared in the succeeding enumeration. How many more were born and died has no bearing on the present question, neither, in your opinion, have we to count on the children of immigrants ; for you say " that the influence of im- migration upon the population of the United States, particularly in the intervals of the two Censuses of 1790 and 1810, has been quite inconsiderable*." This 35 per cent, then was certainly added to the population of 1800; and as they did not muster more than 1 per cent, increase in 1810, they must, by your own admission, have lost a fourth of their number by death. If in any district the increase of population be, as you say, cither ''slow*' or " at a stand," it is obviously not from the want of births ; and, if with such a proportion of births (far greater than is found in Europe) the deaths be such, in any one State, as to keep down the population, there is no reason for supposing that these are fewer in the other States. Connecticut, for instance, which shows so little increase, docs not contain a single large town, and is reckoned as healthy as any part of the Union. * Review^ pace 369. THE REV. T. R. MALTIIUS. .51 I need add nothing more on this subject. With your own hands you have sprung a mine, by v.hich the fabric, that you have been building for so many years, is blown into atoms. I have now, at some length, stated the grounds of my conviction that the Census of 1800 must have been diminished one-fourth by the time of the succeeding enumeration; and if this has been demon- strated, it inevitably follow 3 that the far greater part of the increase, which appeared in the Census of 1810, must have been the consequence of immi- gration. But you have appealed to authority di- stinct from the Censuses ; and to this authority I now attend. To prove that the immigration " has been quite inconsiderable," you say, that Dr. Seybert " calcU' lates that no more than 6000 could have arrived annually from 1790 to 1810." I have sufficiently adverted to the contents of this paragraph in a former part of my Letter ; but to satisfy those who may wonder how the amount of immigration, which naturally rests on facts and documents, could be made a matter of calculation, I must say something of " the valuable work of Dr. Seybert." This ponderous quarto is a collection of tabular reports relative to the commerce, militaiy, navy, revenue and expenditure of the United States. It was published in 1818, and professes to be more 11 'Z 52 A LETTER TO complete than a thin octavo volume, on the same sub- jects, which was drawn up by Mr. Timothy Pitkin, about two years before. " It appears," you say, " to be sanctioned by Congress." It was so, and the sanction was of a curious kind. On the report of a committee, Congress ordered the purchase of 500 copies, and (at the same time) a like number of copies, of Mr. Pitkin's book, which, if Dr. Seybert's were of any value, must have been n6 better than an old almanack. Tables of exports and imports, copied in the mass from the custom-house books, may be termed " official ;" but they can be interest- ing only to a few. Many, however, of the docu- ments in the " Statistical Annals" are any thing but official, being extracted from anonymous statements, printed, originally, on this side of the Atlantic, in the Monthly Magazine, Literary Panorama, Naval Chronicle, and other periodical publications. These remarks would have been quite out of place, had you not, by your excess of praise, endeavoured to raise the Doctor, in the estimation of your readers, for the purpose of making them bow to his autho- rity. " It contains," you say, " all the authentic materials which are to be found on the subject of population in that country*." These alone are to our present purpose. * Review, page 366, note. Tlir, PvEV. T. 11. MALTHUS. 53 Only 38 pages of this immense volume are ap- propriated to population, 7 or 8 of which (neatly interspersed) contain what may be called the theory of the subject, and are extracted chiefly from Mr. Malthus, to whom he repeatedly refers. Four pages are taken up with the different Censuses ; and about a dozen more in subsidiary calculations, founded and wholly dependent upon the accuracy of those enumerations. There is a statement showins that 22,240 passengers were landed at ten of the Ame- rican ports in 1817; and some notices respecting the health of the inhabitants of Philadelphia. Be- sides these, there is scarcely another line that is worth attending to. With regard to the Censuses, they cannot possibly have been copied from official documents. That of 1790, though a very small table, exhibits 18 or 20 obvious errors ; and that of 1 800 adds the Census of the district of Columbia, after having included it in the enumerations of Virginia and Maryland ; but, to make amends for this unwarranted increase, the additional return for Baltimore is neglected. These numerous blunders can in no wise be imputed to the press ; for they are dovetailed and riveted into one another, by the separate summation of every column and of every horizontal line. From these data are formed the several state- ments of " results" which we arc told, in a note, 34 A LETTEIl TO " have been examined and confirmed by Walter Folger jun. of the House of Representatives of the United States, and R. j\I. Paterson, professor of mathematics in the university of Pennsylvania*." The statements themselves would not be worth noticing, were it not on account of their absurdity. One Table, for instance, gives us (erroneously to be sure) the number of free ivhite persons within the United States in 1790, 1800, and 1810; with their increase at each period, the annual increase per cent, and the number of years required for a dupli- cation. Another similar Table refers to ail free persons ; a third to the slaves, and a fourth to the combined /y'cc and slave population ; each having columns in the manner of the first, and each specify- ing the period, to the hundredth part of a year, which is required for their respective duplication. One of these tables, (immediately following that of the free white per so7is,) is headed ^' concealing all other free persons except Indians not ta.ved ;"" that is, con- cerning \\\cjree blacks, and the same corresponding results are given to this as to the other classes of the community. The free Negroes have, however, as I apprehend, a source of increase independent of immigrants, or of procreation ; for the manumission of these wretched beings is become the fashion of ♦ Seybcrt's Statistical Annals, page 2 1. THE KEV. T. 11. IMALTIIUS. 55 the day, and is ra[)idly extending over the slave- holding States. But this presents no obstacle to the labours of Messrs. Folger and Patcrson. These wonderful calculators have discovered that humanity expands in a geometrical series, and in such a ratio that the effects of its beneficence continually double their number in 12.13 years, that is, in 12 years, 47 days, iO hours and 48 minutes! Seriously, Mr. Malthus, this is using you ill. I grant that, though the discovery was made in the back-settlements of America, your patent, having been taken out in Britain, may be violated with impunity on the other side of the Atlantic ; but it is unfair in the philo- sophers of Philadelphia thus to make a mock of your grand principle, by exhibiting its mighty ma- chinery in the movements of a puppetshow. It were a waste of time to follow this author through all his other " results ;" and I therefore, take my leave of him by quoting the following grave remarks, which I do not recollect having seen in any other work on population. " It is a fact worthy of notice, that, during the two pe- riods, for which the discriminations have been made in our returns, viz. in 1800 and 1810, the free white females of 16 and under 20 years of age, were more numerous than the males of the same ages. In 1800, for every 100 males of the description aforesaid, there were 102.18 females ; in 1 8 10, for every 100 of the males, of the ages specified, there were 102. jd female?. Although, in tlic aggregate of tlie 56 A LETTKFt TO free white population, there was for every period an excess of males, yet the females were more numerous than the male?, at that time of life when marriages usually take place in our country ; for every other age, with one excep- tion only, viz. the persons who were under 10 years of age, in 1800, the males were more numerous than the females. In the foregoing regulation, there is much reason to admire the wisdom of the Almighty. The period of life, when the females exceeded the number of the males, is the most im- portant for the conservation of our species ; our existence and increase are then more effectually secured by a moderate predominance of the sex, which is, at all times, the most delicate, and from pecidiar circumstances, at that period, the more liable to casuallies." If Dr. Seybcrt be not a icise, he at least appears to be a very pious man ; and it is " comfortable" to find such a person, among the members of the only legislative body on earth that refuse the prayers of a chaplain. Arc we then to believe, upon this author's bare assertion unaccompanied with a single shadow of evidence, that only 60,000 emigrants could have entered the territories of the United States, between the years 1800 and 1810.^ Surely the good Doctor must have been dreaming when he said so, or his imagination had been chasing phantoms among the clouds. Did he not know, or had he forgotten, that the territories of Orleans and Louisiana, with a po- pulation of nearly 100,000 human beings, were THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 57 added to the Union by a single stroke of the pen ; and that the Illinois and Michigan, which, with 17,000 inhabitants, appear, for the hrst time, in the Census of 1810, owe the principal part of their po- pulation to the cessions from France and Spain ? How many thousands were excluded from the Census of J 800 on account of the scattered state of the newly settled tracts, which rendered it diffi- cult to collect their amount ; or by reason of the uncertainty of bounding lines, which, in many cases, prevented the inhabitants from knowing to what State, or even to what nation, they belonged, until, becoming more thickly peopled, they attracted at- tention and sought die advantages of the Union ? Is there not a hybrid class, sprung from Indians and also from Mulattoes, which is continually adding to the number of the Whites ? And further, was there not a number of foreigners in 1800, who, not being citizens, were excluded from the Census, but had become naturalized in 1810? An account of these strangers was taken in the Census of 1 820 (of which I have seen only a general abstract), and their num- ber is stated to be 53,656. Everyoneof the circumstances above enumerated, (and others, perhaps, of which we are ignorant,) must have had the same effect upon the Census of 1810, as a direct European emigration. According to the confined notions of some of your diaciples, I 58 A LETTER TO the immigration, into the United States, may (with the addition of a few French and Germans) be counted from the custom-house books of Great Britain. There, we have the registered tonnage, and the passengers, entered for the different Ame- rican ports, with the check calculation of the num- ber allowed by law for every ton. Statements so drawn up have been triumphantly published, forget- ting that a sixth of all the seamen navigating Am.e- rican vessels, are foreigners*. But, even in this Pisgah view of the subject, much has been over- looked. Emigrants to the New World are seldom overburthened with money; and they generally take the cheapest conveyance, although it do not carry them, in the first instance, to the place where they mean finally to settle. An exemplification of this appears in an account, printed by the order of the House of Commons, of the passengers cleared out, from the several ports of Scotland, for the British Dominions, and for the United States in North America, and the West Indies, during the year ended the 31st December 1821. For the West Indies 339 For the United States 290 For the Britisli Dominions 3,838 4,467 * Scybcrt's Statistical Annals, page 316. THE REV. T. K. MALTHUS. 69 It is well known that the British colonies serve merely as avenues to introduce a continued succes- sion of emigrants, from England and Ireland as well as Scotland, into the United States. Other stations are avenues to the emigrants from other countries; for that land of republicans has been long considered as the focus of freedom, by the discontented among all the nations of Europe. I believe I have now demonstrated that your power of procreation has not been exhibited in Ame- rica; and (as I said before) you have yourself written three volumes to prove that it has appeared in no other part of the earth. In the United States, men are born and die, something in the same manner as in Europe. The soil of the New World does not teem with human beings ready to start into life, as by the labours of Deucalion. Your far-famed error has arisen from your superficial view of society. In reasoning upon the increase of population, you seem never to have been aware of the distinction between an old and a new country. In the former, the early terms of your progression, if it ever existed, are lost in the mists of antiquity ; while, in the latter, the proportion of increase, may, at an early comparison, be any thing you will, because the first term of the series is a cypher. In 1790, neither Indiana, nor the Illinois, contained a single settler ; and in the Census of 1810 they number above 36,000. You 1 2 60 A LETTER TO have, therefore, the tuo terms and 35,000 ; but, I bcheve, it would puzzle even your American ma- thematicians to calculate, from such data, the ratio of increase. Let us, for the sake of an approxima- tion to common sense, take these colonies, not at zero, but when thev mustered 36 individuals. In 20 years, then, they had increased a thousand fold. Do you call this a natural law of increase? If you do not, how are you to discriminate ? A single pair placed alone in an island, may possibly, in ten years, have 6 children. The inhabitants of this island would then be 4 times the number of the first settlers : other pairs, more or less fortunate in their issue, may be added from time to time; and, when you have thereby procured a nation of children, you point to this nursery of human beings and cry * Behold the natural law of population !' It is asto- nishing, even to yourself, that this law has already ceased in the older States ; but it must be always thus : — The geometrical ratio is never to be found except in the cradle of society. But are we certain that mankind, under any cir- cumstances, possess an unlimited power of increase? Docs not a tree overbear itself and remain compa- ratively barren for years ? Is not a soil iniproveable to a certain extent, and then obliged to be rcisled, or to be cropped with vegetables of another kind ? The aborigines of North America arc rapidly di- THE REV. T. K. MALTHUS. 6l minishing in numbers, while those of the South are populous and powerful. No attention nor encou- ragement has been able to rear the requisite num- ber of Blacks in our West India Islands, nor even in the procreating climate of the United States. This, to be sure, may be attributed to the condition of slavery ; but the same evil prevails among the in- habitants of St. Domingo. The Emperor Christophe complained of a diminution of his subjects ; and it appears that this was not confined to the poor, but had an obvious effect among the noblesse of the land; for, by an Edict dated 20 August 1819, he provides for the vacant dignities, occasioned by the want of male heirs to many illustrious houses of the kingdom*. These losses, however, which His Ma- jesty so grievously laments, were happily not irre- *■ " Edit du Koi, qui pourvoie mix Dlgnitcs vacantes,dans VOrdrede la Noblesse, qui cfie de nouvcaux Nobles et de Jiouveaux Grand Croix et Chevaliers de Saint Henry. "Henry, par la grace de Dieu et la Loi constitutionnelle de I'Etat, Roi D'HAYTijCtc. etc. etc. a tous presens et a venir,SALUT. "DepuislaFondationde laMonarchiejusqu'ace jour, nous avons vu avec regret et affliction, que plusieurs Maisons illustres du Roy- aume, se sent eteintes, par dcfaut de posterite masculine; " Nous avons senti qu'il importait do pourvoir aux dignites va- cantes et de cr6er et d'admettre dans I'Ordre de la Noblesse de nou- veaux Membres dont le zelc et le patriotisnie nous sont de surs garansde Icurs nouveaux efforts pour la prospuilc publique, qu'ils se montrcront de formes appuis duTrunc, dc la Patric, dc la Libcrtc 6^ A LETTER TO parable; such personages need not spring from here- ditary descent, they may be created. " A breath can make them, as a breath has made." In Europe, we have no means of observing the destruction of a tribe, as we have from those di- stinctive marks, the black and the copper colours, of the Negroes, and Indians of America. Never- theless, in families which have had sufficient splen- dour to fix our attention, we generally, in a course of years, perceive extraordinary changes of increase and decay. The last descendant of Cromwell lived to write the history and to lament the approaching end of his race. The ancient family of the cele- brated Reformer John Wycliffe, became extinct last year, by the death of Thomas Wycliffe, Esq., whose ancestors had been settled at Richmond, in York- shire, ever since the reign of Edward the First. How many of our nobility are the descendants of those who came in with the Conqueror? In default of a son of the present Sultan, does not tiie throne of the Eastern empire belong to a Calmuc Tartar, the vassal of Russia ? The Dynasty of France, after an existence of 900 years, now sleeps in the cradle of a child. Does not even the House of Brunswick, lately so numerous, exhibit symptoms of decay ; et de rindcpendance, et en mcme-tcmps que nous satisfaisons un devoir chcr a notrc c«eur, cclui do Ics rccompenser des services rcndus a noire Royaumc.'' &:c. THE REV. T. R. MALTHl^S. 63 and is it very improbable that the sceptre of Britain may be one day swayed by a Danish king? We know very little of the past, and nothing at all of the future history of the human race. Whether on the whole their number be at present increasing or diminishing, I will not pretend to determine. We amuse ourselves and others with speculations on the subject ; but, with respect to a solution of the problem, I suspect that we have not advanced a single step, since it occupied the pens of Wallace and of Hume. For centuries, at least, there seem to be sufficient room and sustenance upon this globe for all its probable inhabitants ; and I see no necessity of legislating for eternity until we are certain that man, in this world, is eternal. While food can be procured by industry, the sole evil to be conquered is its unequal distribution. If there be any principle in man which will render the many for ever the slaves of the few, it is from their masters alone that w'e can expect amelioration ; and these, perhaps, may listen to our lectures on political economy, especially if they tend to foster their prejudices and flatter their passions ; but if, by the gradual improvement of intellect, the many shall ever be able to govern the few, we may safely leave it in the hands of those new governors to provide for their own subsistence. But even should they be improvident, what would our laws avail ? 64 A LETTER TO Those future legislators Mould laugh at our checks upon their population. That all men have not now food in abundance, is the consequence of misrule. I will not say that this misrule may not be neces- sarily permanent in every human society ; that the mass of mankind, active rather than reasoning beings, may not for ages to come, as in ages past, deceive the hopes of the philosopher ; and that the best form of government that can be devised, must, like the mushroom, partake of the corruption from which it springs : should this, unfortunately, be true, the inequality of distribution must be perpe- tual : but this is not your principle ; for it acts inde- pendently of the amount of population, the pressure upon subsistence being caused by a combination of ignorance and despotism. Were I an absolute monarch, and at the same time convinced of the truth of your principles, I would take care that the diecks upon population should press at least as heavily upon the rich as upon the poor. The celibacy of the priests should be again revived ; and generally he who possessed the other good things of this world, should resign to the labourer the only pleasure that the institu- tions of society have left within his power: I do not mean to say, nor do I believe, that our modern political economists are designedly the enemies of the poor man ; but their proposed remedies for his THE REV. T. R. MALTHUS. 65 poverty must be very unpalatable to him. He is to continue a slave, but his load is to be lightened by diminishing the number of his fellows. It is the Cryptia of the Spartans. The Helots must not be too numerous, but their masters may multiply at pleasure. Political economy, which, like its sister science metaphysics, had its origin in the Proteus meanings of words, has lately raised a new edifice upon your assumptions. If, by the destruction of these, that edifice be undermined, it is not my business to sup- port it, neither shall I lament over its ruins. In all ages of the world there have been pretended sooth- sayers, who, predicting the fate of individuals or of nations, have attracted the attention of the idle and the ignorant. Oracles, omens, and auguries, influ- enced the very governments of antiquity ; and woe to the man, whatever might have been his genius, learning, or moral worth, who dared to express a doubt of the truth of their superstitions ! Tiiose were succeeded by astrology ; and the fate of na- tions was made to depend upon the aspect of the planets when their prince was born. Physiognomy rose to its meridian during the life, and declined with the death of Lavater, to give way to the doc- trines of Gall and Spurzheim. The disciples of these latter gentlemen have begun to amuse the public by their craniological (I beg pardon, their K 66 A LETTER TO phrenological) lectures, which are, I dare say, per- fectly harmless, while they are not recognised as any part of state policy or of state religion. They might, perhaps, be dangerous jurors ; but long may they occupy the rostrum ! for I should be sorry to see their places filled by reverend gentlemen ha- ranguing to boys and girls on the occult science of preventing propagation. Divines have been accused by the sceptics of begging the question, when they give the name of effects to the phenomena of nature, and then infer an invmble cause to these visible phenomena. But you have reversed this mode of reasoning. From the visible phenomena of vice and misery, which you choose to designate by the title of causes, you infer an effect that is necessarily invisible — the pre- vention of a certain imaginary rate of increase of mankind. Vice and misery are the readiest causes for those who would have a cause for every thing. The former is to be found in every £tage of human society; and the latter, in a great degree, pervades all that we know of animated nature. If not causes, then, they are universal concomitant circumstances; and it may easily be supposed that they are the causes of every thing which they surround. The whole of your system rests on a single sophism ! ' Vice and misery are checks to population ; there- fore population is the cause of vice and misery.' It THE REV. T. R. MALTIIUS. 67 is obvious that the conclusion does not flow from the premises ; but even these premises themselves are only partially true. The yew tree, which shades the grave of the dead, may be stinted in its growth by a worthless soil and a chilling clime ; but under no circumstances could it ever have acquired the strength and stature of the oak. To account for the origin of evil, (taking for granted that it had an origin,) is a task of difficulty. The Greeks traced it to the opening of a box ; cer- tain divines, to the eating of an apple ; republicans, to the despotism of kings ; and infidels, to the power of superstition. But you have started a new- theory. According to you, Love — not the polluted Venus of antiquity, but connubial Love, which mo- ralists have hitherto considered as what distin- guished man from tlic brutes, — is the source of all the evils of the human race. I grant that, were it so, no blame could be attributed to you ; but if not, you have blasphemed against the gentle goddess, by proclaiming her to be not an angel, but a demon. To invent an hypothesis as the cause of a single phenomenon, is the province of the poet and not of the philosopher. The collection of facts constitutes knowledge ; and when brought under one system, it is science : but even in the more certain sciences, the part which is theoretical is not always indubi- table. Theory is perishable — knowledge is im- K 2 68 A Li:rii:ii to mortal. Theories arc vessels in which the mate- rials of science are deposited and lloated down the stream of lime. But these vessels are fragile. The Teredo lurks in their timbers unseen, until the pro- bable wreck becomes apparent to the wise, who hasten to remove their stores to save them from destruction. I have now, Sir, nearly done with you for the present ; but, before closing this Letter, I beg leave to call your attention to one or two minor peculia- rities in your publications, that I do not well under- stand, and which, perhaps, you will be kind enough to explain. I noticed already (p. 23) a strange error in your Review, in which you imagine that the two former Censuses of this country were taken in 1800 and 1810*. Tiiis might have been passed over as a slip of the pen, had I not seen the same error printed in more than twenty different pages of your Essay on Population. There is a chapter of ridiculous calcula- tions respecting the population of England, through the whole of which, as well as in other places, you not only persist in the same blunder, but likewise repeatccUy and pointedly assert that Mr. Rick- man's " Preliminary Observations on the Censuses" were p7^inted Sind published, the one in 1801 and * Ilevicw, j). o70. THE REV. T, R. MALTHUS. 69 the other in 1811, (that is before the Census in each case was finished,) though these are expressly dated 1802 and 1812, and were not published until the close of those years*. In one place you make a quotation from the observations on the Census of 1801, which quotation is, in the original, immedi- ately followed by the date IBOSf; and in another place you quote a whole Table from the Prelimi- nary Observations for 1811, in which 1800 and 1810 are substituted for' 1 80 1 and 1 8 1 1 J. From all this it appears certain, that though there are 80 pages of your Essay employed upon the Censuses, you have never seen either of the " Population Abs- tracts," and must have received the remarks M'hich you published, from some one of your calculating friends. Indeed it is impossible to believe other- wise, unless you will plead the privilege of old age, which you so politely accord to Mr. God win §. There is another point in which, it appears to me, you have treated your readers with less ceremony than you ought to have done. In your Essay on Population, you take frequent occasions to quote Dr. Price's Observations on Reversionary Pay- * Malthus on Population, vol. ii. pages 47, 52, 57, 63, 80 to 10*2, &c. t vol. ii. p. 57. I Ibid. p. 95. § Review, p. 36'2, 3G3. 70 A LETTEIJ TO ments ; and, having purchased your copy when a young man, you always refer to the 4th edition. You seem not to be aware that there have been three subsequent editions, all quite different from yours in their arrangement, and containing addi- tional Tables and valuable notes, both by Dr. Price and by ]\Ir. Morgan. The consequence of these improvements is, that your edition (which was printed 40 years ago) being generally wasted, is now a very scarce book ; and that your readers, if they wish to follow you, have to grope their way through a modern copy ; and if they find your quo- tation at all, it is sure to be at a very distant page, and often in a different volume from that to which you refer. This was sufficiently tormenting to the patient perusers of your larger work, but it was rather too mischievous to cite so often from the same anti- quated copy, (without even mentioning the edition,) when you were writing for the more volatile readers of a modern Review. I grant that to have bougiit a new copy would have been expensive; but I am told that Mr. Jeffrey pays sixteen guineas a sheet, and your criticism fills fifteen pages. When I began this Letter, I really (as I said) considered it as of no consequence who was the writer of tlie philippic to which 1 have made this • Review, pages 3G5, OO? and 371. THE REV. T. r. MALTIIUS. 71 answer; but it has been since suggested to me that there are many literary men, especially in country situations, who are little acquainted with the tricks of authors or the party spirit of Reviews. These persons look upon such conduct (which you and I ^now to be common) as something dishonourable, and even as approaching to crime ; while in their anxiety to be just they might accuse me with being ungenerous, and call for proofs in place of insinua- tions. In compliance, then, with their old-fashioned notions of honour, I must advert more particularly than I otherwise would to the writer of this Review. We are often convinced by evidence that could not be made sufficiently known so as to be satisfac- tory to others ; and we have often a testimony for facts, when we dare not, consistently with our regard for our informant, give that testimony to the world. Such, with me, is the conviction of vour having written the article in question. The overbearing insolence of that article will justify the manner of my defence ; and that I have so far associated you with the Reviewer, is warranted by your avowal that there was nothing in that Review of which you disapproved. The Reviewer, not knowing his own weakness, has affected to treat me with ridicule and contempt. I have shown him that he mistook the size of my skull, and has made a cap that will fit only his own head. Having done this, I shall for 72 A letti:r to ]\rn. imaltiius. my own part rest contented ; for I have no wish to decorate him further with a fool's coat and bells. How far these things are personally applicable to yourself, you must, after all, be the best judge ; and if you will say that you had no connexion, directly or indirectly, with the manufacture of the criti- cism on Mr. Godwin's Work on Population, which appeared in the 70th Number of the Edinburgh Review, I will then acknowledge that I have been misinformed, and that you did not write it. I am. Rev. Sir, Your Opponent, but not your Enemy, DAVID BOOTH. London, January 1, 1823. > AN E X A AI I N A T I O N CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. We have now had three general enumerations of the inhabitants of this country, taken at equal intervals, and which show an increase of popula- tion of about thirty per cent, in the course of twenty years. It is my present object to endeavour to discover, in how far this apparent increase is war- ranted by the returns ; and, for this purpose, it will be convenient to extract, in an abridged and con- densed form, some parts of Mr. Rickman's calcula- tions, so as to save the trouble of continued refe- rence. Other tabular arrangements will also be ne- cessary, to elucidate the subject. In the Censuses of 1 80 1 and 1811, the sexes only were distinguished ; but, in that of last year, the ages were required. These were returned for about eight-ninths of the whole ; and Mr. Rickman, much to his credit, has given to these returns all the advantage of comple- tion, by apportioning them in each case to a popu- lation of 10,000, of every county and of either sex. The following is a general summary of numbers and of ages. 74r AN EXAMINATION OF (A C o <4>i« CS u OJ S 9 C E4 « JS O 00 4^ a Si TJ ?: G a> CJ 4-> a •-^ •<-• ^■i^ C/3 CO a> '-• > ■i-> -^ a O 00 CU '~ "* s o o O s s s CO " t~ CO o o ^ M m >fi o eo d ■^ ''L "*- CO 1^ o c *1 t» q^ CO 00^ ki^ c>r ■^ M »- ■^ i3 • o >o o 1-H ^ o^ °l o •* c>» "3 tJ" ^ cT ■* 00 1 t~ t^ o» o CO t^ CO o o *-< • <0 -c)^ "^ co^ q_ 01 pf cT cT cT t-^ "eS CO >-^ eo CO ^ Ci CO t^ 00 CO CO o T)< CO CO 00 o o t^ o o « o> o J Ch^ Ti ■^ CO o> CO 05^ <0^ 1-1 VO ©» _4; »^ ^^ o o o "tS CO c> o» ■<}< ■t S CO t^ ■>*« c eo o \n^ •>* o> )-< co" o' C. CO t^ •* 4> o o. » » ^_ o •c o _4; nT tsT ■*■ cT o" ■« eo 'O eo «<. o s O-;^ CI eo K •"J- in T3 c ■a a d s t JS >-. rr ="2 o o g < 2 o THE CENSUSES OP GKEAT BRITAIN. 75 O c o c o o o o a £ a > 'S «5 s- £ o U o 15 o c. •* CO »^ < o o c- •O -^ CO 22 o 'O •* e. 'O l^ "O §2 o 1.-5 lO i-O O O 'O 22 o CO cj -* «o OJ 't '^ o» c>< o/ S2 o CO CO — -o 0> 00 CN OJ Cf c S3 o CO "O CO -5f t^ '.'; Tj« Tf ■* 3 2 o 00 to c>» i-O CO O ■* o »o to o o o 'O -T -T •o o o ?2 o CO CO OJ to »^ -- •o O t^ S 2 o ^ ^ u:> TT N. Ci O CO CO 52 o so c- S2 'C CTi 'O O C Oi ^ ^ o g2 o O CO "* '-' > — c O o o oo O e^ o t^ C-3 O Tj- T7 ■* o ^ o e. CO o 'O to o <^ ^ 2 o C}< CO o> s^ CC O CO a. o o 2 2 o >0 CO M Ci O O o o un Ci o t^ O '-^ -t T-^ Zl CI 22 !0 CO r- 'O a. vo COO •o 2 o n !>• !>• Tf O -O CO -* n ^ 2 o CO — ' r^ o CO t^ OJ tJ '- -a 5 >o CO ■* ■* CO '- c> lO 'O •* 3 a lO -* o> ■* 2; CO c. England Wales Scotland England Wales Scotland L 2 76 A\ r.XATMlNATIOX OF The first question that would occur to an unbi- assed individual, on looking at these Censuses, M ould be, whether or not the two former enumera- tions included the whole of the inhabitants, for if not, a part, perhaps the whole, of the apparent increase must be fallacious. That they did not contain the whole of the population has been acknowledged in each of the scries of " Preliminary Observations," and particularly in the last : " It has been reasonably supposed," says Mr. Rickman, " that the first enumeration of the people in Great Britain, especially as it took place in time of war, was rendered somewhat defective from backwardness or evasion in making the answers required, inasmuch as direct taxation, and more obviously the levy of men in every place, might possibly be founded on the results of such an investigation. But as no such ettect was perceived to take place, the re- turns of the year 1811 were in all probability more full and accurate than those of 1801 ; and the war having now ceased, there remains no reason to suspect the least defi- ciency in the return of 1S'21. Indeed, the voluntary return of the ages of persons, an in(iuiry of fur more labour than that of the enumeration of houses, families and persons, proves, by the extent of the answers, that the Population Act has been carried into effect in the year 1821, not merely with willingness, but even with zeal, throughout the greatest part of the kingdom*." * " Preliminary Observations to llic Al)stract of Population ive- tiirns for ]8?1," pjigc xxix. THE CENSUSES OF GlIEAT BRITAIX. 77 Here we have the evidence of one \\ho had the best means of information, in proof of the com- plete effect of the last and of the imperfection of the two preceding Censuses. In both cases, the apparent per centage increase is nearly the same, and we have the testimony of the same witness that the inaccuracy of the enumerations (whatever it might be) was proportionably equal in both ; for he says, (speaking of the baptisms and burials,) *' This similarity of result seems to prove, that the enumeration of 1801 was no more defective, as compared with that of 1811, than the enumeration of 1811 is to that of 1821*." Notwithstanding these admissions, Mr. Rickman still continues to present us with a Table of the imaginary population of England and Wales, for every 10 years during the last century, depending on the supposed accuracy of the Census of 1801. This Table, which is constructed from a compari- son of the registered baptisms, rests on three several assumptions ; cither of which, being groundless, must undermine the whole fabric. 1. The accuracy of the Census of 1801 is taken for granted. ^2. It is presumed that the Registers of baptisms (which are acknowledged to be very incomplete) * FrcliiniiKiry Observations, p. \\\. 78 AN EXAMINATION OF had at all times the exact proportion of deficiency which they had in 1801. And 3. It is assumed, that there subsisted the same relative proportion, between the registered births and the whole population, at every period through the course of the last century. It were useless to make any comment upon such data, for it is obvious that they warrant no conclu- sion. But, indeed, no otlier data could be found from which to infer that large increase of the people, which has become, as it were, a part of the creed of the country. The Registers of burials are docu- ments fatal to this belief; for, though the popula- tion of England and Wales is supposed to have in- creased about 60 per cent, since 1775, those me- mentos of mortality have all along remained stub- bornly stationary. But enough of these fairy Cen- suses of former times. They would have been per- fectly harmless, had not the economists mistaken them for real, and annoyed the nation with their prophecies of the future, gatliered from their dreams of the past. In endeavouring to discover the proportion of increase between the different Censuses, Mr. Rick- man, very judiciously, proposes to calculate from the numbers of the females only ; by which means we get rid at once of all the irregularity occasioned by the ajiny and navy, as well as by those birds of THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 79 passage (being chiefly males) who are perpetually going to and fro between this and other countries. I shall adopt Mr. Rickman's suggestion in the fol- lowing pages, satisfied that the arguments from the female part will be equally valid for the whole po- pulation ; for the sexes are, in this case, like the two sides of Hudibras's horse — when one moves forward, the other cannot lag behind. The following Tables of the female population of Great Britain, in 1811 and 1821, are arranged according to such ages as are most convenient for comparison. The ages for 1811 are proportioned from the returns of 1821, which must be equally applicable to both Censuses ; for whatever may have been the increase from 1801 to 1821, it is not doubted that the progression was equable through the whole twenty years, and consequently the lower ages could not have a diftbrent propor- tion to the whole, at the points of time in which the two latter enumerations were made. 80 A\ i:xa:viin:aj"[()x of 00 ^ pa a o c o "3 D. o CXi CTi CO #S •> •N 7i en O Ol O) J3 l^CO Ci Th" C ^ Ct (^ CO c r^ CO o 'O o^ GO cr. Ql Hi f^ CO '- ©» rs •^ *\ '^J' CO GC CO C^ o CI Oi CM CO O OC Oi «^ CO d — - r— . — « r^ {^ i^ G> cc , c CO CO O t— < *N. CN r\ ^ > C> 1^ — ' <— *~ > ^O G-» 0» c o o o rf- O oo CO *« • — 1 — . GO CO o GO — — CO ."ti o O CTjCO *o^ *^ «s v^ o Ci J^ 'O c> M o 'O CO GO *o "^ ^ (O o c^ ■" CO ^^ CO Oi o o o< ^l 4-> o — CM Tj^ '~' "^ """ ^^ o 0^ r^ 'O o O CO CO G^ d Oi — ' GC c^ d C3-1 O CO CO -- O Ol T}^ r; CO o CO G^ 5 o o -^ »o CO o G< r>. o <^ >o GO •'^ — cc ^ »o CO <- l> '— o^ o 00 CO l>. ^^ Ph 00 CO — co^ '.-3 CO -t Tj< CO ^ >o O — ' G^ t. CO C5^ t^ co^ c CO r^ CO r^ rf CO CO Oj rt O CO go" ^ — -rt c>» cc _s CO 40 -? CI ^ t^ r- oc "«^ h^ 00 --■ 1— 1 2 G *5 *3 4-> 4-> "^ A "u. T3 -C i5 oi3 .!_> ?« ca ^^ 4^ c3 Kng Wal Scol CU Kng W'al Scot o THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 81 The last enumeration having been beyond all doubt the most accurate, I shall take it as my stan- dard measure, for the purpose of ascertaining the deficiencies of the other two. The females of Great Britain in 1811, were stated to be . . . 6,^62,716 Of these there remained alive in 1821 (being the number above 10 iu that Census) 5,315,709 And there appear to have died in the interval 947,007 being in the proportion of 1 in 6.6 of the original number. Now it is obvious that, were the stated number of females in 1811 any how increased, the balance would be more; and, consequently, all that had been neglected in that Census, ought (if we could find their amount) to be added to the number of the dead. This addition must be material, other- wise there is no occasion to boast of the superior accuracy of the last Census. Let us suppose, for the sake of illustration, (for otherwise I would not give a farthing for suppositions,) that the deficiency of the returns of 1811 amounted to one-tenth — that is, that, on the average, a town or hundred of 11,000 inhabitants, was numbered only at 10,000. On this supposition, " the coiTected po- 82 AN EXAMINATION OF pulation" (as Mr. Malthus would call it*) of 1811 Mould be 6,888,987 And deducting tliose above 10 in tbe Census of i 821 5,315,709 The remainder 1,573,278 would appear to be the number of the dead, being about 1 in 4.4 of the wliole ; a proportion which is still less than what has been found to exist in other parts of Europe, and, in former times, in our own island. But was there really a deficiency of a tenth in the returns of 1811 ? That I know not. That there was a material deficiency is acknow- ledged ; but with regard to its amount, I am merely endeavouring to muster probabilities. That the proportion of deaths shown by the Censuses (1 to 6.6) is too small, is certain ; because, in that case, the enumeration of 1811 must have been complete. If we could find any isolated di- strict of the country where the returns, at both pe- riods, included all the inhabitants, we should, bar- ♦ Malthas on Population, vol. ii. pages 87, 02, &c. The reader vlio is curious to see specimens of reasoning, founded solely upon suppositions, assumptions, and ad libitum corrections of official statements, may read the whole of the chapter here referred to, as well as that on " the Fruitfulness of Marriage," which Mr. M. (in his character of Edinburgh Re\ iewcr) recouunends to the perusal of Mr. Godwin. THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 83 ring any peculiar accidents, have a proportion of the dead, -which might be safely extended to the whole. A district, however, thus perfectly sepa- rated from every other, is probably not to be found ; and we must be contented with approximations. The following counties present results much be- yond the general average, and little ditferent from our supposition. I\l '2 S4 AN EXAMINATTOX OF c a> V, (1) kc "O (D ^ > O^ "IS ou 5 ^« 4-> <^ v»- o o CO W.' -3 ^ c/> w c a> CJ o CJ j=: "j2 •«-< c c ^n t3 <3) UJ ♦J c =5 5 8S Crt c rt a> 3 ■ U > x"*^ 'O •-4 ►S 2 o = c x> cd *• •4-" n Ui ^. a> C3 o -^5 0) o «D •♦J 5 — 1 o '-')^'~!~*:'^'^'*^*^^'^ i^ 5 3? 'o ^ "^ 'O 'o CO -^ -^ -i- -^ -i- -^S -ii i" 222252222232 o o. u O ^3 fi»« £ 2 (nci'Oco-^0»o-?!5i^cr)-<* •c O cfi <^< — i^cococococo — -t^-^ 00 S S »- CO 0-1 0-» 0» CO rf ^o o» «* <0 t-* o •\ c^co'-coc:)— "-tc^Ttoi «o o ^ " c^ CO P .n CO O . o ^^ cv i>a5CO'*t^^Gio^O'*«o 'O 4^ i^ > 2 CO ^ T^— . f-"QO to •-il'. 0^ o < 00 _c t^ioocioco'*co'^a)«oG^co »o o . vo — Qo 'o 'o Tf O) 00 t^ a> ^ j^ 00 u ^ 'O^ 'l^ C» CO^ Ol^ CO^ QO^ C)^ 'O^ o c^ o^ >~< 0) CO rC T^ ^" tjT co'' f^ ccT c^r ^fT CO oo ^'^ C -^ <-! •— CH o P ^-J c — CTjJ^C^— 'OOWCOrft^OlOO ^ <« -1 coooOiOit^'-c^cccriCO'O ,<^ ■^^ T}«^rj^05_C|COOO--^r^CTj^'sO ^^ 2 «o cc' t-C Co" ocT — "" »rr CO — — -f CO CO oi" ^^ „ —, lO t^ « C» O CO 1— < ;^ ^^ 't c 1^ CO »o oi C) Ci cr, CO J^ ^ oi c?i (« ^ — Oj QO CO OC 'O 1^ — ' »0 CO C« O) ^ '^ C)COG-»C7>COOCt^'-^ — Tf "=3 rn ^ ^ cu CCCCOCOf^'O'-OCCOCOO r>. o ;o— ' .-.Tj< t>.— a Qo oo pi^ CO CO = G "rt 3 go o o THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 85 Should tliese twelve counties present a fair spe- cimen of the niortaiity of the nation, and granting the least deticiency in their Returns for ]81!, it would follow, inevitably, that about 1 in 4.4 of these females must liave died in the ten years ; and, con- sequently, that about a tenth part of the inhabit- ants had been left out of the Census of 1811. Seeing that, according to Mr. Rickman, " the enumeration of 1801 was no more defective, as compared with that of 1811, than the enumeration of 181 1 is to that of 1821*," a like comparison of the two preceding Censuses ought to give us results similar to what we have already found : The females of Great Britain in 1801 were stated to be . . . 5,4912,354 Of these there appear to iiave re- mained alive in 1811 (being the number above 10 years) . . . 4,589,441 And the difference 902,913 being 1 in 6 of the original number, appear to have died in the interval. But, following the same train of reasoning as when comparing the two latter Cen- suses, it will be obvious tliat more than this propor- tion did die ; and, therefore, in whatever degree the real deaths differ from the proportion of decrease * Preliminary Observations fur 1821, page xxx. SG -AN r.XA Ml NATION OF ))ere stated, it must have been owing to a deficiency eitherin the Enumeration, or in the Returns of 1801. That there were deficiencies in both, there can be no doubt. Shropshire (Salop), which increased so little between 1811 and 1821, figures at the rate of 17 per cent, in the comparative statement between 1801 and 1811 ; but on examination, we find that, besides other partiriilar.^ the parish of Ilales-Owen (the far-famed residence of Siienstonc), which mus- tered G, 88 8 inhabitants in 1811, was overlooked in the enumeration of 1801. The county of Argyll rose 19 percent.; but it appears that whole islands were neglected. Monmouth is stated to have in- creased 36 per cent, in those ten years ; and he who can believe it has faith sufficient to remove mountains. The following counties, though they all show an increase, are selected because they pre- sent nothing of the marvellous. The Table is similar to what has been already given for twelve counties, and need not be more minutely described. THE CENSUSES OE GREAT BIllTAlN^. 87 Apparent Decrease of the Females in certain Counties, of the Census of 1801, when enumerated again in 1811. Counties. Females Females ' Under 10 Above lo' Decreasei 1. 1 iitnn Propor- tion of in 1801. m 1811. in 1811. in 1811. Census. Decrease Anglesea 18,031 19,601 5,322 11,279 3,752 1 to 4.7 Banff 19,710 20,203 4,699 15,504 4,236 1 to 4.6 Berks 56,394 60,917 16,192 44,725 11,669 1 to 4.8 Berwick 16,327 16,313 4,135 12,178 4,149 1 to 3.9 Bute 6,239 6,488 1,535 4,953 1,286 1 to 4.8 Caitlmess 12,426 12,811 2,857 9,954 2,472 1 to 5 Denbigh 31,105 33,111 9,006 64,105 7,000 1 to 4.4 Haddington 16,096 16,932 4,308 12,624 3,472 1 to 4.6 Hereford 45,236 47,669 12,222 35,447 9,789 1 to 4.6 Inverness 40,491 42,614 11,106 31,508 8,983 1 to 4.5 Kinross 3,609 3,779 881 2,898 711 1 to 5 3 Linlithgow 9,715 10,577 2,819 7,758 1,957 1 to 4.9 Montgomery 25,064 26,558 6,863 19,695 5,369 1 to 4.6 Norfolk 143,529 153,910 41,571 112,339 31,190 1 to 4.6 Northampton 6P,,3Jn 73,074 19,642 53,432 14,903 1 to 4.5 Orkney, &c. 26,031 26,002 5,554 20,443 5,583 1 to 4.6 Oxford 55,334 60,059 16,198 43,861 11,473 1 to 4.8 Pembroke 30,874 33,162 8,722 24,440 6,434 1 to 4.7 Rutland 8,378 8,449 2,185 6,264 2,114 1 to 3.9 Sutherland 12,692 13,141 3,097 10,044 2,648 1 to 4.7 Westmorland 21,442 23,084 6,143 16,941 4,501 1 to 4.7 Wilts 97,727 102,268 26,815 75,453 22,274 1 to 4.3 York (N. R.) 80,602 84,693 22,384 62,309 18,293 1 to 4.4 Total 845,422 895,6151234,256 661,159 184,263 1 to 4.5 88 AN EXAMINATION OF The preceding Table is not confined to a small portion of the country ; for it contains one-seventh of the whole population ; and even allowing the Census of these counties to have been as complete in 1801 as in 181 1, it is evident that 1 in 4.5 of the former enumeration had died in the course of 10 years. Now if we take the same rate of mor- tality for the whole Census, — and I can see no reason to believe that it had been less, — we shall find that the Census of 1801 was 7 per cent, deficient in comparison with that of 1811 : for, To the Females of 1801 . . . 5,49*2,354 Add 7 per cent 384,464 And from the sum 5,876',SK^ Subtract the living above 10 in 1811 4,589,441 And the remainder (supposed deaths) 1,287,377 is to the thus augmented population of 1801, in the proportion of 1 to 4.5. If the foregoing calculations are correct, — and I have given them at length along witli the data ou which they rest, so that they may be verified or contradicted, — it appears that, instead of 14 or 15, our population has been increasing only at the rate of about 6 per cent, in 10 years; a proportion which would not double their numbers in a century. I do not for n)y part believe that it has increased THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 89 SO much, for I am convinced that more than I in 4,5 must have died ; but at all events this fall, from 15 to 6 per cent., must be gladdening to the hearts of those who were trembling with the fear of an overwhelming population. Mr. Rickman endeavours to prove that two thirds at least of the apparent increase in the Cen- suses is real, which would threaten us with a doubling in 15 years. " It may be stated," says he, " that the increase ol' the population of Great Britain, from 1801 to 1811, was 1,654,000, according to the respective Enumeration Re- turns; and of this increase 1,277,000 in England and Wales : — the Registered Baptisms are 2,878,906; the Re- gistered Burials 1 ,950, 1 89 ; showing an increase of 928,7 1 7; so that, even allowing the deficiency of the Baptismal Re- gister not to be greater than of the Burial Register, more than two-thirds of the increase is established upon incon- trovertible grounds. Again, in the period between the enumerations of 1811 and 1821, the increase of population in England and Wales appears to have been 1,828,000; while a comparison of registered Baptisms and Burials gives an apparent increase of 1,245,000, or rather more than two-thirds of the actual increase*." It is plain that this inference rests solely on the comparative inaccuracii between the Registers of Baptisms and those of Burials ; for that both are ♦ Preliminary Observations for 1821, page xxx. 90 AX EXAMINATION OF inaccurate Mv. Rickman allows, but he has satisfied himself that the deficiencies of the former are greater than those of the latter : this we shall now examine. The continued sameness of amount in the regis- ters of burials has been already noticed ; and even the act of 1812, which has added so materially to the births, has had little or no effect upon the deaths ; as may be seen from the following com- parative view of the amount of the Registered Bap- tisms, Burials and Marriages in England and Wales, for three periods of ten years each. Periods. Baptisms. Kurials. Marriages. ['>om 1791 to I800inclu. From 1801 to 1810 From 1811 to 1820 2,0)7,700 2,878,900 3,255,007 1,954,095 1,950,189 2,009,998 730,014 832,09 1 910,420 fn 30 years 8,751,733 5,914,882 2,478,53 l| The interested clamour of a powerful faction, Avho, from their hatred of Poor Rates, are prepared to en"aQ;e in a war against nature, seems in the present case to have drawn aside the usual judge- ment of the writer of the Preliminary Observations. Without regard to the spiritual advantages, there are temporal conveniencics, consequent upon the laws of the country, which must induce every pru- dent father to get the name of his child inserted in THE CENSUSES OE GliEAT BRITAIN. 91 the list of the baptized. It is not so with the burials; for, here, the name alone remains, since the pro- spects of the being who bore it are, in this life, at an end. The entries then must all depend upon the will of the Registrar, who has no check upon his conduct, nor stimulus to his indolence. — Indepen- dent of infidelity, which, like a flood, is overspread- ing the land, there are numerous and increasing bodies of Dissenters, who look, with other eyes than those of reverence, on the solemn service that is performed over the dead. In the parish church- yards, these services, whether required or not, must be paid for, but the fees are dispensed with in less consecrated ground. — All these and many other causes might be assigned for great deficiencies in the burial registers ; but, it seems, it did not suit the mode of reasoning on the Censuses to dwell upon thena, so as to grant that the records of the deaths were at least as defective as those of the births. Nevertheless, a stationary number of deaths, with a rapid increase of population, was a pheno- menon that required to be accounted for; but in- stead of suspecting, as might naturally have been done, that the registers were erroneous, a new theory has been started concerning the increased value of human life. Physicians, who had, hitherto, made no progress since the days of Hippocrates, have, all at once, become wiser, and diseases have vanished N 2 9'2 AN EXAMINATION OF without others appearing in their room. Tliis in- creased longevity is, however, in tlie utmost degree, fitful and fantastical ; for, in some counties, the annual proportion of deaths is nearly double what it is in others, and, that without any apparent cause. That ]VIiddlesex should, every year, lose 1 in 47 of its population may he readily allowed, the wonder being that they were so few ; but that, with ex- actly the same proportion of ages, Kent should lose annually a fiftieth of its number, while Anglesea could pay the tribute with only 1 in 83, is truly astonishing. It would thus appear that to work in the open fields is more injurious to health than the labour of the mines ; and that the aroma of the hop is more deleterious than the fumes of the smelt- ing furnace. Throughout the whole of Wales, the average annual pro[)ortion of deaths is, as we are told, only 1 in 69 of the population, notwithstanding which the excess of the entered baptisms over the entered burials, between 1811 and 1821, would account for little more than half of the increase in the Cen- sus. For The females in 1821 were stated to be 366,9ol The females in 1 8 1 1 3'iO,155 Giving an apparent increase of . . . 46,796 And, THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 93 The Registered Baptisms from 1811 to 1820 inclusive were 73,397 The Registered Burials for the same pe- riod were 49,310 Leaving an excess of 24,087 being very little more than half the increase of the Census of 1821 above that of 1811. In Sweden, they generally contrive to make the difference, between the births and deaths, corre- spond very nearly with the increase, or decrease, of the population, as it appears in each succeeding Census. There, the Registers are kept with sur- prising regularity ; but ours, though we have had the experience of nearly 300 years, have not the most distant right to the title of correct. Both the births and the burials are so enormously deficient, as to preclude them from forming the slightest foundation for accurate reasoning. Let Wales be an example : The females in the Census of 1811 were 320,155 And the females above 10 years of age in 1821 were . . . ' 269,232 Apparent deaths of females between the Censuses 50,923 Now all the female burials, entered and unentered, given in the Returns between 1811 and 1821, were 52,960 Leaving only 2,037 94 AN EXAMINATION OF for deaths of those that were born between the Censuses. Tlie baptisms of females, entered and unentered, between the Censuses, are stated at 85,197, and of this number, we are to believe that there were only 2,037 deaths. Granting, as was certainly the case, that the Census of 1811 was much below the actual number, the whole amount of the returned burials would not equal the ascer- tained deaths of the females of 1811, without counting any thing at all on the succeeding births. Such is the result from the Returns of the Burials. Again, The entered female Baptisms, between 1811 and 1821, were 73,397 The unentered female Baptisms, returned between 1811 and 1821, were . . . 11,800 Being altogether 85,197 Some of these had probably died ; but, notwith- standing, we find, in the Census of 1821, 97,818 female children below 10 years of age; which, ac- cording to the Registers, were 12,621, more than the whole number of baptisms. Surely, no rational consequence can be drawn from such statements. From a similar comparison, the Registers of Eng- land will be found equally worthless with those of Wales : THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BKITAIX. 95 The entered Baptisms of females through- out England, between 1811 and 1821, were , . . . 1,517,113 And the unentered were reckoned to be 101,277 In all ... 1,618,390 The female children under 10 years of age in the Census of 1821 were . . 1,566,928 And the difference 51,462 appears to be all the deaths out of the 1,618,390, that were born between the Censuses ; not one in thirty, a proportion which might please even Mr. IMalthus. Further, The females in 1811 were .... 4,969,998 Of which there were living in 1 821 (the number above 10 in that Census) . 4,910,830 The deaths of these females were there- foi'e 759,168 To which add the deaths of those born between the Censuses, as stated above 5 1 ,46*2 And the sum gives us all the deaths, that took place in these ten years . . . 810,630 But the reported female burials, regis- tered and unregistered, during that period were 992,821 Giving us a surplus of 182,191 burials without corpses, in addition to the deficien- 9$ AX EXAMIXATIOX OF cies in the burial Registers. Perhaps these deaths, and as many more as were left out of the Registers, might have been persons forgotten in the Census of 1811 ; — perhaps more were born, and died in the course of the ten years ; perhaps, — any thing, for these foolish documents may be twisted as you please. ]\Ir. Rickman presumes much upon the proba- bility that the Registers of baptisms are much more deficient than those of burials, which he considers as an additional argument in favour of an extensive increase: but this supposition only adds to the con- fusion; for it appears, from the following statement, that the excess of the births over the burials is already greater than the actual increase between the Censuses, in one half of the counties of England : THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 97 Comparison between the Excess of Baptisms over Burials, and the Increase of the Census, of the Female Population of 1 8i2 1 beyond that of 1811, in different Counties of England. Counties. Females in 1811. Females ir 1821. Increase in the Census Excess of Births over [ Burials. Berks 60,917 66,431 5,514 7,559 Derby 93,993 107,460 13,467 12,889 Devon 203,753 230,811 27,056 30,040 Dorset 66,976 75,565 8,539 8,383 Essex 127,634 144,515 16,881 16,867 Hereford 47,669 51,691 4,022 5,460 Huntingdon 21,806 24,751 2,945 3,145 Kent 189,595 216,183 26,588 29,675 Lincoln 120,869 141,488 20,619 20,242 Norfolk 153,910 177,476 23,566 23,130 Nottingham 83,843 95,382 11,539 11,215 Oxford 60,059 68,154 8,095 8,263 Rutland 8,449 9,264 815 1,061 Salop 98,456 104,097 5,641 11,478 Southampton 126,225 144,925 18,700 20,135 Stafford 147,080 169,372 22 292 22,224 Suffolk 122,223 138,132 15,909 17,716 Westmorland 23,084 25,846 2,762 2,600 Wilts 102,268 113,944 11,676 12,020 York (E. Riding) 86,148 97,688 11,540 11,218 York (N. Riding) 84,693 93,228 8,535 10,626 2,029,652 2,296,403 266,751 285,976 o 98 AN EXAMINATION Ol' A similar Statement, drawn up from the other counties, would have a very different appearance, and this is the very thing of which I complain ; for I can see no reason why one half of the Registers in Eng- land should have their e.vcess of errors in the Bap- tisms, and the other iialf have theirs in the ]3urials. The fact is, that the Parish Registers, on which so much labour has been bestowed, present, as a whole, nothini' but a conmegated mass of errors and ab- surdities. Tliat there may have been a iew com- plete returns, it would be ungenerous to deny ; but, in consequence of the plan that has been adopted, of grouping the whole into hundreds and wapen- takes, it is not left in our power to separate the ac- curate from the inaccurate, — the probable from the impossible. I know that this grouping was re- quisite, if it was wished to contain the returns within certain bounds ; but I know also, that the effect is such that we n)ight as well have dispensed with their publication altogether. The following are . cases in proof of this assertion. At page 27 1 of the Enumeration Abstract for 1821, we find this note: — "The decrease of popu- lation in Shrawardine parish is ascribed to a family of nine persons having left the parish, and from an increaseof Burials over that of Baptisms." The num- ber returned in 1811 was 201, which, in 1821, was reduced to 177 : so thatin this small parish in the THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN". 99 course of 10 years, the Deaths must have been 15 more than the Births. This, in a county (Shrop- shire) where the proportion of Baptisms to Burials is stated as .58 to 35, seems rather strange, and na- turally induces us to turn to the Parish Register abs- tract. There, however^ we look in vain ; for the register of this unfortunate place is clubbed up with thirteen others, to make up one general return for the hundred of Pimhill. This combined return gives us, for the ten years (1811 to 1820 inclusive), 3405 baptisms and only 1915 burials; so that we are compelled to believe, either that Shrawardine has been visited by some unheard-of calamity, or that its register is a standing satire upon those of all the surrounding parishes. Another instance, which belongs to the two former Censuses, occurs in the parish of Spalding, county of Lincoln. The registers of this place were kept with the greatest care, and the following is an abstract of Dr. Johnson's information for 14 years from 1798 to 1811 inclusive*. * See "Milne on Annuities &c." published in 1815. O C 100 AN EXAMINATION OF Deaths in the Parish of Spalding in the 14 years from 1798 to 1811 inclusive. Ages. Males. Females. In all. to 1 542 to 5 368 307 675 5 to 10 22 35 57 10 to 15 26 20 46 15 to 20 13 J9 32 20 to 25 16 19 35 25 to 30 20 30 50 30 to 35 28 33 61 35 to 40 32 40 72 40 to 45 25 29 54 45 to 50 34 23 57 50 to 55 33 26 59 55 to 60 28 31 59 60 to 65 26 28 54 65 to 70 20 42 62 70 to 75 25 26 51 75 to 80 14 32 46 80 to 85 13 21 34 85 to 90 5 8 13 90 to 95 1 1 95 to 1 00 1 1 to 100 749 770 1519 THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 101 The registered Baptisms in the same 14 years were 1563. Dr. Johnson considered the return to be short 10 or 12 annually, and the deaths to be short rather more; so that the annual average of Births might be about 121, and the Deaths the same. This account is wholly extracted from Mr. Milne's work; for the Parish Register abstracts give us no in- formation on the subject. In them the Baptisms and Burials of Spalding, along with those of 15 or 16 other places, make up one general return for the Wapentake of Elloe, which, in the whole 14 years, shows 9806 birdis and 8332 deaths. The increase in the different Censuses, however, appears to arise from some cause that is independent of the excess of the births over the burials ; for, although these were exactly equal, the parish of Spalding, which showed only 3296 inhabitants in 1801, counted 4330 in 1811; and the whole Wapentake, with 7238 Baptisms and 6326 Burials, rose from 17,905 to 20,320, in the same period. Between 1811 and 1821, this Wapentake presented a new appearance. Its population was augmented to 25, 11 3, while the Register of Baptisms amounted to 9806 and that of Burials only to 5 1 80 ; thus showing that even the fens of Lincolnshire had been allowed to pass under the new tariff of death. Analogy is often deceitful ; but I must here re- mark that the proportions of Births and Deatlis, ex- 102 AN EXAMINATION OF hibitcd by Mv. Rickman, are unlike those that have hitherto been seen in our own, or that exist, at pre- sent, in any other country. France and Sweden present fixed points of comparison. Population. Births. Death."!. Annual pro- I)ortion of Births. Annu.ll pro- portion of Dcath.s. England in 1821 Wales in 1821 France — Births ") & deaths in 1819, ( and Population in 1«21* Sweden — Ave- rage of 1816, Y 1817 and 1818 J 11,486,700 731,800 30,465,291 2,515,113 530,722 17,850 990,023 83,393 199,867 10,635 785,338 59,611 1 to 35 1 to 41 1 to 31 1 to 30 1 to 57 1 to 69 1 to 39 1 to 42 Were we to draw any inference from this Table, it would be that our Burial Registers are much more deficient than those of Baptisms: but I anri contented that no inference should be drawn, for I need no further evidence. Though it made no material difi^erence, Mr. Rickn)an should not, per- haps, have added the army to the number of the population before calculating his ratio of mortality. The deaths of the defenders of our country, are often left unrecorded in our Parish Registers. The laurel of the conqueror is an exotic plant. It grows on foreign graves and is nurtured by the blood of the slain. That the proportion between the Births and Deaths, attributed to this country in the foregoing Anmiaire Historique Universel pour 1821, page 599. THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 103 Table, must be erroneous, will be obvious to every unbiassed man ; but it will be more readily granted by others when they find that it is useless for their purpose. Were it true that the annual Births in the county of Pembroke were one forty-seventh and the Deaths only one eighty-third part of the popu- lation, and that, throughout Wales, the proportions were, respectively, one in forty-one and one in sixty- nine, they would belong to that class of truths which is termed miraculous, and would require stronger evidence than is usually to be found : but, miracles though they be, they would give no additional sup- port to the system ; for the more probable propor- tions of Sweden show an equal ratio of increase, a duplication in something more than seventy years. Much has been said about the increased value of life. Every change in this respect must have an effect upon the arrangement of the population into ages, and could have been particularly pointed out had we had a succession of Censuses, taken in the manner of the last. The devoted legions are always more closely marshalled at those points where they are destined to meet the enemy. In this view, we see no marked peculiarity in our Census ; but we are told, in answer, that the veterans have passed through more dangerous times, and that our suc- cessful contest against death has but just begun. Were wo waiiantcd to draw any conclu'>ion tVoni 104 AN EXAMINATION OF a single distribution of ages, it would seem that the deaths from 5 to 10 years are rather fewer now than formerly, and that the Deaths between 10 and 20 have increased. Of the difference between the born and the number living below 5 years, we can have no knowledge ; because, from what has beea shown, it is evident that we are completely ignorant of the amount of the Births ; neither have we any general statement of the a2;es of the dead. If these apparent variations in the value of the lives of young persons be real, they may, in a great degree, be ac- counted for from the lessened deadliness of the small-pox on the one side, and from the more ex- tended underminings of consumption on the other*. Man, considered as an animal, is difficult to rear. The female has to pass twenty years of her life before producing her kind ; and, iiitherto, it has been nearly an equal chance, whether she should die before, or survive, that epoch of her existence. The epidemics of childhood are the storms of spring. They thin the crop; but their ravages are chiefly fatal to those weakly plants which would, otherwise, have been found blasted in the summer, or blighted in the harvest. As lon«j as children are born with stamina of un- * II is said that this disease destroys about 1 in 6 of all who die in this country. Sec Ilccs's Cyclopa;dia, Article IIlaltji. THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 105 equal strength, they ^vill, under similar circum- stances, die, at different ages ; and so long, the pitfalls in the journey of life will be distributed throughout the whole of its course : nor have we ever yet seen, that the order of distribution has been, at any time, remarkably changed. The du- I'ation of the pilgrimage, too, appears to be inva- riably the same; for we have heard of no improve- ment, in this respect, since the days of Methuselah. Every human being, from the moment of his birth, carries, in his bosom, his sentence of death. An hour is fixed, by the construction of his frame, beyond which his life cannot be protracted ; and it is for him, if he know how, to take care that the period of his doom shall not be anticipated, by his own folly, or by the unseen dangers that surround him. But there is no hope of final escape. Whether he fly to seek renovated health from the mountain breeze, or trust, at home, to the wizard spell of the physician, Death, the sworn enemy of the Geome- trical Ratio, will not be cheated of a single victim. From these considerations, it is very improbable that the arrangement of ages, in any future Census, will be such as to render the proportion of deaths to the whole community different, in any material degree, from what it has ever been. Tiie experience of the past shows that, generally, about a fourth, — never so few as a fifth, — of a present existing po- p 106 AN EXAMINATION OF pulation, must die in ten years ; and tiie cvcess of children under 10 years of age (above tlie number of deaths of the old population) that shall tlien be found, is all the increase that we have either to hope for or to fear. We have seen that Mr. Rick- man's endeavour to prove, from the Registers, an increase of 10 per cent, between the different Cen- suses, has entirely failed ; and it, therefore, follows, from the reasonings in the former part of this Ex- amination, that 6 per cent, is the utmost probable increase since 1811: a rate which, even allowing (what never before happened for such a length of time) that it were to go on unchecked, would not double the population in less than 100 yea<*s. Is this, then, a state of things that calls for legis- lative enactments to prevent procreation ? Would it benefit those, who are born to consume the fruits of the earth, to lessen the number that cultivate the soil ? Would he, who is already rich, be richer if there were fewer poor men to administer to his pleasures ? Edwards, in his History of the West Indies, when taking an account of the property or capital of Jamaica, reckons 12,500,000/. sterling, as the value of 250,000 Negroes, at iO/. a head. He was right : labour is the only foundation of ca- pital ; but it resides in the man, — not in his mas- ter. It remained in St. Domingo after llie Whites were no more. Call the drones of the hive Capi- THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 107 talistSi if you please, but they would still be the idle spectators of the working bees. These are no disorganizing principles. That the mass must con- tinue to have superintendants, or masters, I know : but those masters may not always be inclined to sport with the feelings of the men over whom they rule. The laws that are contemplated to stop the progress of population are not yet passed ; and, therefore, it is not treason to hold them up to exe- cration. Shall two, or three, writers of books, on what is termed Political Economy, — whose slang phrases about " capital," " value," " demand for la- bour," &c. no untutored reader can understand, and who, as is evident from their squabbles, do not understand one another ; — shall these delude the legislators of the nation, by persuading them that the population is too numerous, while the farmer is ruined and his corn lies rotting in the grana- ries ? These men boast, forsooth, of having disco- vered "the nature of Rent;" but it is a discovery like that of the antiquarian, for it is made at the moment when the object is sinking into oblivion. That every person, born in this country, has a " right to subsistence," is not only the popular be- lief, but it is also the law of the land. Call it a prejudice, if you will; but there are few prejudices so useful to society. Patriotism has, hitherto, been reckoned a virtue ; but what is patriotism without V 2 108 AN EXAMINATION OF a home ? It, also, may be termed a prejudice ; for it is imbibed in our early years, and Hows in the warm current of youthful blood, before that blood has been chilled by the frigid precepts of a selfish phi- losophy: but if tliis love of country were eradi- cated from the breasts of the poor, the land would become an easy prey to the first invader, and the rich patriot would soon cease to be the lord of the soil. I acknowledge, that to see men, who are able and willing to labour, reluctantly living as pensioners on the Poor Rates, is disgraceful to the nation, — and I believe that those Rates are some- times oj)prcssive in their collection, and partial in their distribution : but, certainly, it would require no extraordinary genius to find out a remedy for these evils, without attempting to introduce a des- potism, such as has never been before heard of in any age or country. " But there is no demand for the labour of such a multitude." Then let them labour less. If our produce be so abundant, and require so few work- men, why should not the little that is to do be more equally divided, so that there may be more of leisure and less of idleness ? Were mothers al- lowed to remain at home, to manage the affairs of their little households ; and were children sent to school, instead of being imprisoned within the noisy and corrupting walls of a cotton-mill we THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. 109 should soon see an advance in the price of labour. Twenty years of war, which employed so great a proportion of the male population in overturning the new Governments of foreign nations, ought not to make us forget the old habits and institutions of our own. With the aid of machinery, the place of our absent warriors was supplied by infant hands, which, in better times, were not accustomed to work ; and now that the war-wages are withdrawn, and the fathers have returned to their families, a large proportion of the labourers must be fed from funds, that ought to have been appropriated solely to age and infirmity. But, if we are too ignorant, or too indolent, to ameliorate this state of things, we ought not, therefore, to deny to the people the natural rights of men. This would be too much in the manner of the Jamaica Planter, who, when the Maroons were conquered, cared no longer about the dogs of Cuba. That the number of the people could be arbi- trarily limited to " the demand for labour," is to be credited and hoped only by those who have brains of lead and hearts of iron. However much the flame may be repressed by chill penury, man, even in the lowest situation of life, still preserves a portion of the Promethean fire which animates his clay. The general will may, or may not, be the firmest foundation of a Government ; but, assuredly. 1 10 THE CENSUSES OF GREAT BRITAIN. no Government could long exist m opposifio7i to thii general ^vill. " The man is poor, and ought not to marry;" — But he will do so, and perhaps think of the knotty question, — Why, in a country where food is abundant, the labourer should be so poor? " His children shall not come upon our Poor Rates." Then you must dissolve your IMendicity Societies, and repeal your statutes against Beggary. The truth is, the proposal may irritate ; but the execu- tion of the project would be found impossible. The mad-brained attempt could serve no other purpose than to raise the standard of insurrection. CENSUS OF IRELAND. 1 HE amount of the population of Ireland has al- ways been, until very lately, a subject of mere con- jecture. The first Act, passed for the purpose of ascertaining tlie number of inhabitants, was ineffec- tual, on account of some neglect, or informality, with respect to its delegated powers, and ended in the abortive attempt of 1813. Another Act was passed in 1815; and ever since, the officers, to whose care it was committed, have been busy in carrying its intentions into execution. The su- perintendent of these proceedings (William Shaw Mason, Esq. of the Record Tower, Dublin Castle) made a "Preliminary Report" of Progress, about the close of last year, a single page of which was printed, by order of the House of Commons, in February last. Being denominated a " Royal Sta- tistical Survey," it may be doubtful whether or not (when completed) it can properly come under the cognizance of the Lower House : but, be tliat as it may, thoseNewspapereditors, who had been deluded by the doctrines of Mr. IVIalthus, were not slow in re- publishing this stray-leaf^ for the purpose of show- ing, that Ireland (above all others, the land of vice and misery) exhibited, to the utmost extent, the power of the Geometrical Ratio! The followinij is the substance of the printed page alluded to : 112 AN EXAMINATION OF Population of Ire/and in 1813 and 1821. No. Counties. Inhabitants Inhabitants Increase 1 in 1813. in 1821, since 1813. Carlow 69,566 81,287 11,721 o Droglieda Town 16,123 18,118 1,995 3 Dublin County 110,4;)7(/ 160,274 49,8S7 4 Dublin City 176,610 186,276 9,666 a 5 Kildure 85,133 101,715 16,582 6 Kilkenny County 131,()64 157,096 22,4C-2 7 Kilkenny City no return 2.",230 3 8 King's County 113,226 132,319 19,093 hJ 9 Longford 95,917 107,702 11,785 10 Louth no return 101,070 11 Mcatli 142,479 174,716 32,237 12 Queen's County 113,857 129,391 15,534 13 Westmcath no return 128,042 14 Wexford no return 169,304 15 VVicklow 83,109 115,162 32.053 16 Clare 160,603 209,595 48,992 17 Cork County 523,936 702,000 178,064 Ci 18 Cork City 64,394r/ 100,535 36,141 19 Kerry 178,622 205,037 26,415 20 Limerick County 103,865r/ 214,286 110,421 ta 21 Limerick City no return 66,042 s 22 Tipperary 290,5:1 1 353,402 62,871 23 Watcrford County 119,457 127,679 8,222 24 25 Waterford (Jity 25,467 26,787 1,320 Antrim 231,548 261,601 30,053 2G Armagh 121,419f/ 196,577 75,128 27 Currickfcrgus Town 6,136 8,255 2,119 cj 28 Cavan no return 194,330 w 29 Donegal no return 219,483 30 Down 287,290 329,348 42,058 P 31 Fermanagh 111,250 130,399 19,149 32 1 Londonderry 186,181 191,099 7,918 33 Monaghan 140,133 178,183 37,750 H 34 Tyrone 250,746 259,69 1 8,945 35 Galway County I40,995f/ 286,921 1 45,926 ^ 36 Galway Town 21,684 27.827 3,143 S 37 Lei trim 91,095 105,976 11,881 < 38 Mayo 237,371 297,538 60,167 Z 39 Roscommon 158,110 207,777 49,667 ^ 40 Isiigo IK) return 127,879 THE CENSUS OF IRELAND. Summary of the Population of Ireland in 1821. 113 Ilou.ses. fnliaijitants; . Leinster MUNSTER Ulster Con NAUGHT 2y4,oi3 191,267 l,7t;.i,?02 2,003,363 '2,001,966 1,053,918 Total 6,81t),949 The letter (d), in the column for 1813, denotes a defi- ciency of some of the Returns of the counties to which it is annexed. It is said, that there is also a deficiency in the Returns for 1821, which, when completed, will, it is supposed, raise the Census to upwards of seven millions. The comparison of the enumerations of 1813 and 1821, shows an enormous increase. Setting aside the few counties of which no account had been taken in tiie former Census, itappears that a popula- tion of 4,598,284 had, in that short period, swelled to 5,787,569. They had, thus, in eight years, add- ed 1,189,285 (above a fourth) to their amount; a number, which, as will be speedily shown, must have been equal to that of all the births in the interval! I shall, probably, be reminded that the Returns of 1813, were, in some of the counties, deficient. This deficiency, however, Mr. Mason must have reckoned of no importance, otherwise he would not have brought the sums into comparison by writing, as he has done, the increase upon each : unless, indeed, he meant to hoax the disciples of Mr. Malthus ; for these gentlemen really believe, Q 114 AN EXAMINATION OF tliat the iiilmbitants of the counties of Limerick and Galway doubled their numbers in less than eight years. It may be remarked, too, that there is no hint of these deficiencies, in the Abstract printed by order of the House of Commons. But, even, independently of this chance of withheld Re- turns, the increase appears immense : in the four counties of Wicklow, Clare, Cork, and Roscom- mon, where the Returns were complete, 925, 7o 8, the population in 1813, became 1,234,534 in 1821, thus adding a third to their number, — nmch more tban all that were born. To increase beyond the number of the Births, without foreign aid, and at the same time to send out emigrants to every quarter of the globe, would be astonisliing in any other country ; but Ireland is the land of miracles! According to the Report (from which the pre- ceding Abstract of the Census is extracted) Mr. INIason appears to have gone about the business with all due caution and solemnity. The execu- tion of the proceedings, in the diti'erent counties, having been entrusted, by the Act, to the assistant Barrister and Bench of Magistrates, his first care Avas to inspect the list of Magistrates so as he might discover the names of those who "were from death, absence, or other causes, ineffective towards the su- perintendence of the county business *'." In con- * Report, page 5. THE CENSUS OF IRELAND. 1 15 Sequence, a correct list of the Magistracy of Ireland, in 1820, was made out, and forms the first of the four Appendixes which are subjoined to this Re- port. *' The Magistrates of Ireland, exclusive of the Counties of Cities and Counties of Towns, which are each under a peculiar Jurisdiction," are in number 4537 ; and of these, it seems, 609 are dead; 1547 non-resident; 183 resident, but not acting ; 266 acting, though not resident ; and 1932 both resident and actinia. The first duty of the Magistrates was to make a Return of the names of persons qualified to take the account of the population : and here, also, the care of the Superintendent is visible. In order to ascertain whether the persons selected possessed the necessary local information, a printed form was transmitted to the Enumerator of every di- strict, that he might fill its columns, under their dif- ferent heads. The information thereby procured is printed in the second Appendix, under the title of *' The Enumerator's Qualification Returns." This Table contains some useful information. It shows that if the people be superstitious and ignorant, it is neither from the paucity of clergymen nor of schoolmasters. The particulars are given for every Barony and City Parish. The following is a gene- ral summary : Q2 11(5 AN EXAMINATION OF Parish. parts of Parish. Town- lands. Resident Clcrgn,'. Esta- blish. 01',' Rom. Cath. Pres- byter. Other Diss. Li.iNsriiR . . 77.'> J.>7 «.>,1(J7 (Jt3!! I'J 13 2,163 MUNSTKR . . 611 113 11, .-,3'-'^ ■163 63o 20 2,117 Ul.STKR . . . 271 141 11,031 440 319 216 114 '2,479 Conn AUGHT '250 10.") 10,078 167 3(37 3 3 1,223 Total 1, po- .547 Its ,0081 1,70',' '>,00072 2142 10232 il2374 | Here the number below 8 years of age, is little more than a sixth of the whole population, which sufficiently justifies the remark which was made, when speaking of the Births between the Censuses, The division of ages adopted by Mr. Mason, though uncommon, was not taken at random: but in con- sequence, it may be supposed, of his intimate knowledge of human nature. The several periods of life are thus characterized by that Gentleman. I hope that the last is peculiar to his country : Age of Infancy Under 8 years. Education Between 8 and 16. Labour Between 1 6 and 45. Superintendence . Between 45 and 60. — -— Imbecility At 60 and upwards. THE CENSUS OF IRELAND. 1 I9 In the enumerations of the inhabitants of other countries, we universally find that, including equal periods of years, tlie numbers in the higher ages are less than in the lower, and more particularly so, if the society be on the increase ; but in this " Mo- del of a Census" the case is diiferent. Here the number between 8 and 1(3(2731) is a sixth part more than {'^331) the number under 8 years. If the Society was increasing, it is not probable that a Census, taken 8 years sooner, would have given the population under 8 higher than in this Table : and, even allowing that none had died, whence did the additional 400 spring ? This may be the Irish manner of propagating, but it is unknown in any other part of the world. The reader will, probably, have observed another peculiarity in the Census of which we speak :--the numbers, at the different ages,when summed up, do not agree with the " total of souls." I thought, at first, that the word " souls" (for which, by the bye, IMr. Rick man, very irreverently, uses the term "persons,") might, like his "imbecility," have a meaning, in Mr. Mason's vocabulary, different from what it has in ordinary English ; and this idea was strengthened by seeing that the columns of reVmon Avere interjected between the ages of the {)Opulatioii and the totals. On further examination, however, I found that this discrepancy was owing to the ac- 120 AN EXAMINATION OF cumulation of six several errors, in the additions of as many different Townships ; but though the amount of the population was thus increased beyond the reality, in six different Townships, the Enume- rator seems to have had no difficulty in accuratdif subdividing his false amounts, between the two sexes and the two religions. The ease with which he has accomplished his apportionments looks very like guess-xvork : — but all these things are trifles in a " Roval Census." The other Statistics of this Barony are given with much detail and extreme minuteness. The names of the individuals were required in the Census, but are not here annexed. Jt is to be hoped that they ■will all be printed in the great work, as it will only add two or three more folio volumes to the half dozen of which, according to this specimen, it must consist, and, in addition to its present interest, will be a treasure to the future antiquarian. The fol- lowing is a list of the "occupations and professions" followed in this Barony : Farmers and La- Coopers . . . 14 Servants ... 101 bourers. . 2,2(30 Smiths and Gardeners . . 'iO Weavers. . . 365 Nailors ... 62 lnii-kiT|iersand Spinners ... 20 Saddlers and Har- I'liljjicans . . 19 VVoolcombers . 6 ness-makers . 9 Skinners and Ma«ons .... 34 Shoe-and Brogue- Tanners ... 5 Slaters 9 makers ... 64 Clergymen. . , 3 Carpenters and Tailors .... 36 Physician ... 1 \VI)eol\vrights 53 Manttia-makrrslS Apothecaries . .5 Sawyers .... 3 Teachers . . . 14 Attorney .... I THE CENSUS OF lUELAXD. 121 Revenue officers 4 Shopkeepers . 20 Watchmakers . 2 Bakers 6 Chandlers ... 1 Confectioner . . 1 Painter .... 1 Glaziers .... 2 I^yer Hatter .... Turner .... Miller .... Paviour . . . Auctioneer . . Clerks 2 Apprentices . . 3 Bailifts .... 4 Pensioners ... 6 Dancing ftlaster 1 Tinkers .... '2 Bonnet-niukers 5 An Englishman would not have expected to find "pensioners" in the list of "professions and occupa- tions;" but we, in this country, know nothing of Ire- land. There are no other resident gentry in these Parishes. This Barony possesses all the requisites which are understood to ensure a rapid increase of Popu- lation. There are no unhealthy occupations, and the far greater proportion of the Inhabitants are cultivators of the soil. There are 16,000 acres of arable and meadow land, (besides mountain, woods, and bogs,) divided into 1 187 farms; more than 1000 of which are under 20 acres. The rents, too, are low; for Mr. Mason assures us that the land is let at three-fourths of its real value, averaging 27 shil- lings per acre in place of thirty-six. There are 2206 families, and exactly the same number of houses ; so that the average, living in one house, is only between 5 and 6 persons. " The grand canal passes through the Parish of Lea, for the space of three miles;" and Portarlington, the only town in that Parish, " enjoys the privilege of sending one mem- ber to the Imperial Parliament," besides having been, ever since the revocation of the Edict of R 122 AN EXAMINATION OF Nantz, "remarkable as a seat of elementary educa- tion."' This, altogether, is the description of a ter- restrial paradise; and yet, notwithstanding these high advantages, the progress of population, in this Barony, would not double its number in a hundred years. They were rated in 1813 at 11,904, and, in 1819, they were 12,374, only giving, according to Mr. Mason, " an increase of 470 souls in 6 years." The comparison of the number of children under eight with those between 8 and l6, if not allowed to be miraculous, can be accounted for only upon the supposition, that some Radical Eco- nomist has been lecturing at Portarlington on the subject of procreation, and has succeeded in or- ganizing a conspiracy to raise the wages by lessen- incf the supply of the labourers*. How they con- trive tocommunicate the information without wound- ing " female delicacy," I know not ; but either Mr, Malthus's Theory of Increase is all a humbug, or the enlightened parishioners of Lea and Cool- banagher have got possession of the new secret process for preventing procreation. I have now described, with some minuteness, all that is yet published of this first Census of Ireland ; but another enumeration must be made, at the di- stance of eight years from the present, before any thing can be known of the progress of the popula- * Vide Place on Population, pa^es 164: and 165. THE CENSUS OF IRELAND. 123 lion. The attempt of 1813 was a complete failure, and all before was mere conjecture. Guesses, with respect to the number of the inhabitants of a nation, are generally very different from the fact; but, made at times when there is no opportunity of verification or contradiction, they pass to poste- rity as matters of history. A work of no mean character gives the following account of Anglesey in Wales : " The first aspect of this island at a distance is barren, rugged, and full of rocky eminences. The chief town is Beaumaris. Although the country be not absolutely barren, it bears the appearanra n^ jmverti/ of soil and scar- city vfinhabiiunUi ; iljeit; are few villages in it, and most of the houses indicate the occupiers *." Such was the belief of the time ; and yet the vo- lume had scarcely issued from the press, when the Census of 1801 announced that this barren island was, in proportion to its extent, not less populous than the variegated county of Devon. But it is not always that we find the inhabitants to be more numerous than the previous estimate; for many states have assuredly declined. PortufraJ, w^hich is said to have contained four millions in the reign of Emanuel the Great, can now muster little more than three. Professor Crome, in his work, " Ueber die Grosse und Bevolkerung der europiiis- chen Staaten," published in 1794, laments over * Rees's Cyclopaedia, vol. ii. AvV.cXq Angksey. 8 782 124 THE CENSUS OF IRELANDi the depopulation of Spain, which, he says, contained 30 millions of inhabitants in the eighth century, previous to the expulsion of the ]\foors. The princi- ples of the modern Economist would lead him to re- joice rather than be sorry at this diminution of the people ; but, unfortunately for the success of his system, it is at variance with the deep-rooted feel- ings of human nature. Even were it praiseworthy, it would not be praised, to exert the energy of a Government in an attempt to keep down the Po- pulation of a country. "VVe have found men capable of making such a cold-blooded proposition; but we shall never find an Historian to promieo them re- nown. The names of Ferdinand and Isabella are mentioned with abhorrence, because they lessened the numbers of their nation, by converting it into a land of Monks and Nuns. The towers of Alhambra, like the Pyramids of Egypt and of Mexico, are melancholy mementos of a diminished population, such as a generous mind does not love to contem- plate. Bats and Vampires have been shunned in all ages ; and, even in the Bird of Wisdom, it is not her most amiable quality that she loves to dwell among rums. THE END. Prina'd by Ilicliard Taylor, Shoe-Lane, London. s book is " stamped below University of California SOUTHERN REGIONAL LIBRARY FACILITY 305 De Neve Drive - Parking Lot 17 • Box 951388 LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 90095-1388 Return this material to the library from which It was borrowed. y UlittARY