UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION S. W. SHEAR BULLETIN 462 December,, 1928 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA 1928 CONTENTS PAGE Summary and conclusions 3 Object of study 7 Varieties of prunes 8 California prune-producing districts 9 Production in California 13 Outlook for California production 16 Pacific Northwest production outlook 17 World production outlook 18 Production in foreign countries 20 International trade 25 General fruit situation 29 Consumption of dried fruits 30 Size and quality of California prunes 37 Chief uses for prunes 44 Price of California prunes 47 Problems of adjustment 60 Appendix of tables 65 LIST OF TABLES PAGE 1. California prune production, bearing acreage, and yields, 1914-1928, and forecast of bearing acreage 1929-1931 14 2. Commercial production of dried prunes by countries, 1898-1928 19 3. Average dried-prune exports from chief producing regions to principal markets, 1923-1927 24 4. California dried-fruit production, average 1910-1914 and 1923-1927 30 5. United States production, exports, and domestic supply of dried prunes, crop years 1898-1927 31 6. Dried-prune consumption by chief countries, averages 1909-1913 and 1921-1925 33 7. Dried fruits: United States production, foreign trade, and consumption, average 1921-1925 35 8. Percentage of California prune production by sizes, 1912-1927 36 9. Farm price of California prunes per ton and per bearing acre, 1919-1927... 49 10. California prune production and prices, 1886-1928 50 11. Farm price of prunes by sizes, average 1917-1920 and 1922-1925 59 12. California bearing prune acreage by counties and districts, 1921-1928, and non-bearing, 1928 66 13. Size distribution of California prunes by counties and districts, 1925-1927 (in per cent of total of all sizes for each district or county) 67 14. United States exports of prunes by countries, 1897-1927 68 PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION S. W. SHEAE2 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS As a result of increasing production, the California prune industry is faced with the probability that, on the average, prune prices will be Tinprofitably low for an unusually large percentage of growers for several years, unless growers, selling agencies, and others financially interested in the industry greatly improve the methods and reduce the costs of marketing and succeed in eliminating the more inferior part of potential production from competition with the better grades of table prunes, and unless growers themselves drastically reduce costs of production. Production, — Increasing California production is the major cause of the upward trend in the commercial prune output of the world. During the five years 1923-1927, the state produced over 65 per cent of the average world commercial production (excluding Jugoslavian domestic consumption) of about 230,000 tons; Jugoslavia produced nearly 20 per cent ; our Pacific Northwest slightly over 10 per cent ; and France about 5 per cent. Average world commercial production of dried prunes in recent years has been about 70 per cent greater than in the period 1909-1913 and about 30 per cent larger than in 1904-1908. 1 Acknowledgments. — The following organizations and individuals have given the author generous assistance in the preparation of this bulletin: The Divisions of Fruit and Vegetables and of Statistical and Historical Eesearch of the United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics; the United States Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce; the California Crop Report- ing Service; the California Prune and Apricot Growers Association; Mr. J. M. Newhouse, Manager of the North Pacific Prune Exchange; Mr. K. S. Patton, United States Consul at Belgrade, Jugoslavia; Mr. H. C. Rowley, editor of the California Fruit News; Mr. B. H. Critchfield and Mr. C. F. Wells of the Division of Markets of the California State Department of Agriculture; the Dried Fruit Association of California; Rosenberg Bros, and Co.; the California Packing Corporation; Catz American Co.; the Western Canner and Packer; Mr. V. T. Ellsworth of the California Farm Bureau; and Mr. Earle J. Shaw. Members of the University staff from whom valuable suggestions have been received are Dr. A. H. Hendrickson, Professors C. M. Titus, T. F. Hunt, and W. V. Cruess, Messrs. P. F. Nichols and E. M. Mrak, and Mrs. M. J. Abbot. Within the Division of Agricultural Economics valuable assistance was received from Dr. H. E. Erdman, Dr. Emil Rauchenstein, and Mr. C. H. West. The statistical computations and draughting were largely done by Mr. F. M. Roush. 2 Assistant Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station. 4 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION French production, although rather variable, has averaged nearly 12,000 tons during the last five years, or only about one-half of the pre-war average and there seems to be no prospects for an increase in normal output. Jugoslavian post-war average commercial output (exported sur- plus) of about 40,000 tons is about 30 per cent greater than the 1909- 1913 average but approximately 40 per cent less than for 1904-1908, the period of maximum exports from the prune-producing areas now included in Jugoslavia. The limited available evidence indicates that Jugoslavian prunes will probably continue to offer as much competi- tion to our prunes, on the average, as in recent years, Although there has been no noticeable upward trend in production and exports of dried prunes in that country since 1920, there is a possibility of a slight increase in the near future. The production and bearing acreage of prunes in California have just about kept pace with one another in recent years. Should pro- duction during the next few years continue to keep up with fore- casted bearing acreage, the production may conservatively be esti- mated at an average of 190,000 tons a year for several years, an increase of about 36,000 tons over the average of the last five years. If commercial production in France and Jugoslavia, should remain at an average of about 50,000 tons during the next few years, the Pacific Northwest increase to 30,000 tons, and California average 190,000 tons, world commercial dried-prune production, which has averaged about 230,000 tons during the last five years, would average 270,000 tons over a period of several years, or as large as the world output of 1927. International Trade. — An average of over half of world produc- tion of dried prunes now enters into export trade. During recent years over 62 per cent of average world exports of 260 million pounds has come from the United States, California alone contributed 55 per cent and Jugoslavia about 34 per cent of this international move- ment. United States exports have increased rapidly during the last thirty years. Since the war an average of over 45 per cent of the country 's production has been exported. Western Europe, the greatest consumer of dried prunes, has imported nearly 95 per cent of world exports in recent years and approximately 90 per cent of United States exports, Germany is by far the greatest importer of prunes, taking about 27 per cent of world exports from 1923 to 1927 and approximately 25 per cent of our exports. In Germany our prunes meet the keenest competition BUU 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 5 from Jugoslavian prunes, which are of a poorer quality than ours but normally sell at substantially lower prices. German imports of prunes from the United States usually vary almost inversely with imports from Jugoslavia. The big fluctuations in Jugoslavian production and exports, therefore account to a considerable extent for the violent variations in German prune imports from the United States. Most Jugoslavian prune exports go to neighboring European countries, There has been a decided tendency for those to Czechoslovakia to increase in recent years. If this tendency continues it may, by divert- ing foreign prunes which would otherwise go to Germany, result in an increase in German imports of our prunes. The decline which has taken place in prune production in France has resulted in a big increase in her imports from California and placed her third among importers of our prunes in recent years. Size and Quality. — For many years California prunes have been graded into three classes according to quality and ten groups accord- ing to size. There is an apparently desirable tendency among dis- tributers to adopt only three major size classes of prunes — large, medium, and small. The interior valleys produce only a very small percentage of prunes of as high a quality, judged by present trade standards, as the majority of prunes produced in the coastal-valley districts of the state. Proper cultural, harvesting, and drying prac- tices would improve both the size and quality of many prunes pro- duced in interior-valley orchards. It seems desirable that all factors in the prune industry encourage the production of large prunes of superior quality by placing the proper price premiums on them, and discourage the production of prunes of small size and of inferior quality by adequate price penalties. The market supply of prunes for table use could be reduced 10 to 2Q per cent if poor-quality fruit and sizes 90 or smaller were kept off the market in years of abnormally large and unprofitable world crops. Growers in localities that are not adapted to the economical- production of prunes of good quality and of medium size or larger would benefit themselves and the industry by turning to other enterprises or occu- pations in which there are possibilities of making a better living. During the last twenty years the proportion of California prunes 40 to 50 to the pound or larger has shown a notable increase, due chiefly to the fact that much of the expansion of production has taken place in those coast and Sacramento Valley counties which produce a big percentage of large prunes. The proportion of 50/60 's has remained fairly constant, while 60/70 's or smaller have declined in 6 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION relative importance. An average of about 40 per cent of recent crops has been 40/50 's or larger; about the same proportion has been 50/60 's; and approximately 20 per cent smaller sizes. Variations in the output of 50/60 's and 60/70 's are relatively small. The greatest fluctuations occur in the case of larger sizes. Consumption. — In this country prunes nearly all reach the con- sumer in the dried form. Prune pulp and dried prunes canned in syrup and in wine, however, are relatively new products which can be cheaply packed and for which extensive markets may be built up once the technical problems involved in packing them have been satis- factorily solved. Unfortunately, the probability that these problems will be solved in time to help much in relieving the industry of the present burden of low prices caused by over-production, seems remote. Because of increased world production, the total and the per-capita consumption of dried prunes and of dried fruits in general has sub- stantially increased in most of the chief dried-fruit-consuming coun- tries since pre-war years. The United States consumption of dried fruits in post-war years of 6.7 pounds per capita is 50 per cent greater than the pre-war average and is larger than that of all but a half dozen of the more important foreign markets. Nearly 25 per cent of it (1.6 pounds) now consists of prunes. The peoples of the United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Argentina and of most of the countries of northwestern Europe now consume a pound or more of dried prunes per capita annually and nearly all of them have shown a decided increase in per-capita consumption since pre-war days. Price Outlook and Problems of Adjustment. — In the past, sub- stantial increases in prune production have practically always made a cut in prices necessary in order to induce consumers to eat more prunes. The rough data available indicate that nearly 75 per cent of the changes in crop-year average wholesale prices of California prunes in the New York market can be accounted for by variations in approximate world consumption, except in very abnormal years such as 1919-1921. If the forecasted production of prunes actually matures and reaches the market during the next few years, prices will have to be low to induce consumers to use all the available supply or else growers, selling agencies, and others financially interested in the industry will have to unite in a determined and constructive remedial program. Such a program would involve measures (1) to reduce the acreage and commercial production of prunes, (2) to lower production costs, (3) to improve size and quality, (4) to eliminate small and inferior BUL.462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 7 prunes from consumption as table fruit, (5) to reduce costs of market- ing, (6) to improve and widen distribution, and (7) to stimulate foreign and domestic demand. Even though extraordinary improvements were to be made in marketing prunes during the next few years, it is improbable that the net result would be sufficient to entirely overcome the depressing effect of heavy production of prunes and of other competing fruits upon prices. Marketing improvements will be worth working for, however, for they should result in higher prices than the grower would be able to get without them. The test of the value of efforts to improve dis- tribution will be whether prices are better than they would have been had no such changes been made, and not whether prices are actually higher during the period in which the improvements are in effect. To attempt to hold prices too high during the next few years will result in carryovers and other complications which will only add to the troubles of the industry. The experience with carryovers which the raisin, the canning-peach, and the prune growers themselves have had should convince them that it is usually suicidal to hold prices high enough to cause carryovers from one crop year into the next during a period in which average production is large. These experiences also indicate that practically a 100 per cent support by the growers in an industry is necessary for the group even to have a chance to succeed in limiting the supply of a commodity put upon the market and completely eliminating the rest of the supply from competing market channels through by-products or other methods of disposal. Because of the peculiar economic nature of agriculture such unified action is exceedingly difficult if not impossible to accomplish in most instances. OBJECT OF STUDY The present study has been made because prune growers of the state are interested in getting at the facts regarding the economic situation of their industry and the outlook for it. The analysis of the available statistics on prune acreage, production, sizes and grades, carryover, consumption, foreign trade, and prices which is presented herein should lead those interested in the industry to a better and more general understanding of the problems which confront the industry, and by so doing it should result in more rapid and effective solution by individual and cooperative effort. When considered in the light of the specific information which individuals in the industry have available regarding their own particular situation, the facts 8 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION presented in this bulletin should be helpful to growers, as well as others in deciding" what it is best for them to do under the circum- stances that confront them. 3 iC VARIETIES OF PRUNES From the point of view of the dried-prune industry, which is under consideration in this bulletin, a prune is a plum which will not fer- ment when dried without the removal of the pit 4 and usually includes only plums having a high percentage of sugar. Only a very few plums not of the type called prunes are dried after being pitted and the dried product is tart in flavor and the demand for it slight. Most American-born consumers are familiar with, and hence pre- fer, the varieties of prunes grown in California, which are decidedly sweet in taste when dried. Their flavor differs noticeably from the tart or subacid flavor of the Italian (Fellenberg) variety, which con- stitutes the bulk of the dried product of the Pacific Northwest. The tartness of Italian prunes is due to a larger acid content and slightly smaller sugar content. The popular impression that because of its tart flavor the Italian prune has a much smaller sugar content than the California French prune is incorrect. 5 The flavor of the Italian prune is similar to that of the prunes exported from Jugoslavia, to which most of our population born in Europe are accustomed. The chief varieties of prunes grown in California are the French (Prune d'Agen, Petite Prune), Robe de Sergeant, Imperial, and s The farm-efficiency studies which the Extension Division of the College of Agriculture is conducting in a number of counties are supplying California growers with much needed information about the relation of farm costs and profits, and are resulting in better orchard practices in many sections of the state. A marketing study dealing with the possibilities of widening the market for prunes and cheapening distribution costs is now being carried on jointly by the Division of Agricultural Economics of this College of Agriculture, the Division of Markets of the State Department of Agriculture, and the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the United States Department of Agriculture. The Division of Markets of the State Department of Agriculture at Sacramento has recently instituted a market news service on prunes which is designed to make available to prune growers more and better information regarding cur- rent changes in prices and production and the marketing situation in general. *Wickson, E. J. California fruits, p. 269 (10th ed.) Pacific Bural Press, San Francisco, 1926. Some aspects of the economic status of, and the outlook for, the fresh-plum industry is treated in: Eauchenstein, Emil. Economic aspects of the fresh plum industry. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 459: 1-26. 1928. 5 Information concerning the comparative sugar and acid content of Italian and French prunes are summarized in: Critchfield, B. H. Demand, marketing, and production of Oregon and Washington prunes. U. S. Dept. Agr. Dept. Circ. 416:13. 1927. Data in this are based upon: Colby, G. E. Investigation of California prunes, apricots, and peaches. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 97:8. 1891; and upon: Shaw, G. W. The Oregon prune. Its composition, food value, soil draught. Oregon Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 61:18, 1900. BUL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 9 Sugar. 6 The French prune, the most important commercial variety grown in California, is found in all the prune-producing sections of the state. Except for its tendency to produce only medium to small- sized fruit, it is probably unsurpassed in California. Its quality is usually excellent. The fact that price differentials favor large-sized prunes more than formerly, 7 however, has encouraged the planting during the last decade of an increased proportion of varieties which produce large sizes. 8 The Robe de Sergeant, which is extensively planted in some of the interior valley sections, resembles the French in size and quality when dried and is usually sold as such. Because it is a light bearer, it has been planted but sparingly, particularly in the coast valleys. The Imperial, which produces the largest size of prunes, is planted in certain parts of the Santa Clara Valley and in the coast counties north of the Bay. The fruit is large and of excellent quality, but the tree is a notoriously shy bearer, except in a few favored localities particularly in the counties north of the Bay. The Sugar prune is grown in certain sections, especially in the hot interior valleys. Although a heavy bearer it has a pronounced tendency to alternate bearing. Likewise, the dried fruit, although fre- quently of a large size, is mediocre in quality, being somewhat coarse and stringy. CALIFORNIA PRUNE-PRODUCING DISTRICTS9 Location and Relative Importance. — California prune production is largely concentrated in four important districts, (See figure 1.) The largest, oldest, and, as a whole, the most concentrated is the coast district 10 south of San Francisco Bay, which extends from Contra 6 The following brief discussion of the chief varieties of prunes grown in California is based on: Hendrickson, A. H. Prune growing in California. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 328:32, 33. 1923. A new circular on plum and prune culture in California is now being prepared by F. W. Allen. 7 See brief discussion page 58. s In the absence of any available statistics on plantings of prunes by varie- ties, the analysis of data showing the trend in production of prunes of different sizes, and the relative distribution of prunes by sizes in different counties of the state, as discussed on pages 37-41, should prove valuable. 9 For a brief description of the important characteristics of the chief prune- producing districts of the Pacific Coast see: Kinman, C. F. Plum and prune growing in the Pacific states. U. S. Dept. Agr. Farmers ' Bui. 1372:1-12. 1924. io The districts referred to in this bulletin for the sake of brevity as the coast districts north and south of San Francisco Bay are not on the coast proper but in the small valleys near the coast such as the Santa Clara, Santa Eosa, and Napa valleys. 10 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Costa to San Benito County and includes the famous Santa Clara Valley, in which the California industry had its beginning. It con- tains about 44 per cent of the total prune acreage in the state. (See figure 2.) The greater part of the acreage in the second largest dis- Ca//forr?/a /=yt//?e s4cr&crgr€> > /928 Tota/ of fifecrr/r?? c/s of /4cre£ o /o Thousands of Acres ZO JO -40 SO 60 70 S6 t92/ /92S Jncrvose I ' 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 32 Z Z4.6 /7I 9.4 3.0 79.9 42J 34.9 no 41 27.7 Coast So. of £&(/ 17.5 Coost/Voof &o(/ 17 8 Sacrdoverto \/o//e(/ 1.6 Son Jooqv/n Va//ey II Of her Coc/nf/es ■■|ii«^^^<^^^ ^%M^»^ P»W^ ^m Increase 1,1, EST /os-j I72.0 65.7 Tota/ Fig. 3. — The bearing acreage of prunes has increased greatly in the coast districts and in the Sacramento Valley since 1921. (Data from table 12, page 66.) Rank in Yields per Acre. — The very limited available statistical data regarding prune yields per acre in the different sections of the state confirm the general impression of those most familiar with the industry. The lower San Joaquin Valley apparently produces the highest yields per acre followed by the Sacramento Valley district, the coast district south of San Francisco Bay, and the coast district north of the Bay, in the order named. The very fact that the industry has grown but little in the high-yielding southern San Joaquin Valley area shows that other factors than yield are of decisive importance in determining the profitableness and the expansion of prune production in different sections of the state. The prunes produced in this dis- trict, on the whole, average too small in size and low in quality to bring a satisfactory return in periods of low prices such as the present. The same is also true of a few counties in the Sacramento Valley, although several counties 12 produce a large percentage of medium and large-sized prunes. See discussion pages 40 and 41. BUL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 13 Indications of Future Increases. — Judging by the 1928 non-bearing acreage (see table 12, page 66) the greatest increase in bearing acreage and production is to be expected from the Sacramento Valley, which contains 40 per cent of the 21,000 acres of prune trees in the state not yet in bearing. The coast district north of San Francisco Bay contains 27 per cent of the non-bearing acreage of the state, and the district south of the Bay about 25 per cent, while the San Joaquin Valley accounts for barely 5 per cent. Relatively, as well as absolutely, the bearing acreage of prunes in the Sacramento Valley should increase more rapidly than that of any other section of the state, judging by the percentage the non-bearing acreage is of the bearing acreage. The acreage in this section in 1928 still to come into bearing amounts to 24 per cent of the present bearing acreage, in comparison with 14 per cent in the coast district north of San Francisco Bay, 9 per cent in the lower San Joaquin Valley, and only 7 per cent in the coast district south of the Bay. In the state as a whole an equivalent of 12 per cent of the 1928 bearing acreage is not yet of bearing ag-e. PRODUCTION IN CALIFORNIA Expansion Since 1850. — Although the prune tree was introduced into California about 1850, it was not until between 1880 and 1890 that the crop began to assume commercial importance. The state pro- duction in 1890 was estimated at less than 10,000 tons, and at that time a large part of the prunes consumed in the United States were imported from France and Bosnia. For at least a decade thereafter California production expanded rapidly, reaching nearly 100,000 tons in 1902 (see table 2, page 19). With the growth of California output, imports of prunes into the United States had declined to less than 500 tons by 1896 and exports had risen to nearly 8,000 tons. From 1902 to nearly 1910 the trend of prune production in California was downward. Trade estimates indicate that the production of the state in the decade 1900 to 1910 averaged about 66,000 tons, which con- stituted about 40 per cent of the commercial production of the world. Since 1910 the trend of production in the state has been upward and most rapid since the war. During the same period Pacific Northwest production has showed a gradual upward trend. French production, however, has declined greatly since the decade before the war and Jugoslavian production has decreased to some extent. The net result is that California now produces about two-thirds of the commercial production of the world. 14 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION Increase in Bearing Acreage Since 1910. — The meagre data avail- able indicate that in the decade from 1910 to 1920 the prune industry was expanding" in every important district of the state with the excep- tion of the coast district south of San Francisco Bay. During this ten-year period the bearing acreage and the production of the state as a whole seem to have increased between 40 and 50 per cent. Most of the expansion occurred in the coast district north of San Francisco Bay and in the Sacramento Valley, and a small part in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Valley. 13 TABLE 1 California Prune Production, Bearing Acreage, and Yields, 1914-1928, and Forecast of Bearing Acreage 1929-1931 Bearing area Production Year Thousands of acres Per cent of average Thousands of tons Per cent of average Yield per bearing acre, tons 1 2 3 4 5 Averages 1916, '17, '19, '20, '21 1923-1927 103.8 141.6 82.9 91.5 101.2 102.3 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.3 111.4 119.4 128.7 138.8 156.0 165.2 172.0 177.9 181.0 182.0 100 136 80 88 97 98 99 100 101 102 107 115 124 134 150 159 166 171 174 175 104 154 56 92 79 109 45 135 97 100 130 130 139 146 150 203* 185* 100 147 54 89 75 105 43 129 93 96 125 125 133 140 144 195* 178* 1.00 1.08 1914 0.68 1915 1.02 1916 0.78 1917 1.07 1918 0.44 1919.. . 1.30 1920 0.93 1921 0.94 1922 1.17 1923 1.09 1924 1925 1926 1.08 1.05 0.96 1927 1.23* 1928 1929 1.08* 1930 1931 1932 * Data for 1927 and 1928 are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources of data: Cols. 1 and 3. — Latest revised data, compiled from Annual Reports of the California Crop Reporting Service. Cols. 2 and 4. — Relatives expressed as a percentage of the five-year average 1916, 1917, 1919, 1920, and 1921. Col. 5. — Computed from cols. 1 and 3. 1 3 This paragraph is based upon county acreage data from the federal censuses of California of 1910; and 1920 and from reports of the county horticultural commissioners as compiled by the California State Commission of Horticulture and published (in most cases) in its Monthly Bulletin. BUL.462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 15 The solid black line pictured in figure 4, page 16 (see also table 1), shows how rapidly bearing' acreage of California prunes has been increasing since 1914. Expansion was relatively slow before 1921. For several years right after the war, however, plantings were, unfor- tunately, greatly stimulated by the seemingly relatively high returns which growers received for prunes. 14 So many trees have come into bearing since 1921 that the bearing* acreage has increased about 62 per cent. The resulting expansion in production has caused a serious decline in growers' returns. By 1931 the present bearing acreage of 172,000 will probably have grown to about 182,000 acres, representing an increase of over 75,000 acres within the decade since 1920. Yield per Bearing Acre. — The data of the California Crop Report- ing Service in table 1 show that since 1914 the average yield of dried 15 prunes in the state per bearing acre 16 has varied from as low as 1,400 pounds to as high as 2,600 pounds, The apparently low yield of less than 900 pounds per acre in 1918 was not due to the fact that the trees bore lightly but was caused by early rains, which ruined approxi- mately half of the crop during the period of harvesting and drying in September. 17 Table 1 shows that there were no violent fluctuations in the average yields for the state during the period 1920-1926, the range being only from 1,900 to 2,200 pounds per acre. Yields in 1919 14 See discussion of prices on pages 47-49. 15 It usually takes between 2.4 and 2.5 pounds of fresh French prunes (which constitute the bulk of the California crop) to make one pound of the dried product, the drying ratio depending in part on the maturity of the fruit and the conditions under which it is dried. (Cruess, W. V. Commercial fruit and vegetable products, p. 344, 345. McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York. 1924.) The large varieties, such as the Imperial and Sugar, dry away considerably more than the French. ' ' In the coast counties of the drying ratio ranges from 2 : 1 to 2^:1 and in the interior valleys and southern California from 2|:1 to 3:1, the state average being nearly 2|:1. " (Christie, A. W., and L. C. Barnard. The principles and practice of sun-drying fruit. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 388:7. 1925.) 1 6 The age at which prune trees come into bearing varies greatly in different sections of the state. In estimating future increases in bearing acreage, trees are generally considered to come into bearing at about six years of age. Hendrickson states that in a period of normal prices "a sustaining crop of prunes is not ordinarily produced until the trees are six or seven years old. ' ' (Hendrickson, A. H. Prune growing in California. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 328:37. 1923.) Prune trees come into full bearing between ten and fifteen years of age. 17 Cruess, W. V. Salvaging rain-damaged prunes. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Cir. 212:1. 1918 (reissued 1921). Many growers who have suffered losses from prunes being damaged by rain while being sun dried are dehydrat- ing their prunes, that is drying them artificially in evaporators. Statistics on the tonnage of prunes dehydrated annually in California, 1921-1925, and data on the comparative quality, yield, and costs of sun-drying and dehydrating are given in: Christie, A. W. The dehydration of prunes. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 404:1-17. 1926. 16 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION and 1927 were abnormally large. Present indications are that those of the 1928 crop will be somewhat above average. Average yields for 1923-1927 have been nearly 2,200 pounds. OUTLOOK FOR CALIFORNIA PRODUCTION Figure 4 and table 1 show that the upward trend of prune pro- duction in California since 1910 has been just about as rapid as that of bearing acreage. The two curves in figure 4, picturing production and bearing acreage, are so related that points indicating crops above average in size are above the curve of relative bearing acreage and Ca///or/7/<7 Ph//?e Proc/t/cf/o/7 o/7c/ £&ar//7gr /Icreape /so /60 \ /JO k •>> /0O / N /SO /6O m\ \ /20\. so I 40 20 - Y 1** ^' .-»' 1 1 ■oc/vcr/o/? / F» — ■ v^ J?&&f/r7gf demerge x \ so I " 40 20 o / M ** \ \ 7 * f \ \ 1 1 J ( \ ,^ 1 /» // /Z /J /4 /S /6 /F /S /S 20 2/ 22 2 J 24 2S 26 27 23 22 JO J/' Fig. 4. — The bearing acreage of prunes in California will apparently con- tinue to increase for several years, and average production likewise, if average yields per acre do not decline greatly. (Data from table 1, page 14, and table 2, page 19.) those below average fall below this curve. As long as yields per bear- ing acre average approximately what they have during the last decade, future production should tend to fluctuate above and below the curve of relative bearing acreage, depending upon whether a crop is above or below average in size. Since 1920 both bearing acreage and production have expanded rapidly, but the forecasted increase in bearing acreage, shown in figure 4, indicates that the increase in production wiil not be as rapid during the next few years unless yields per acre are greater than they have averaged since the war. On the basis of the curve of forecasted bearing acreage, California production may conservatively be esti- mated at an average of about 190,000 tons a year for several years, compared with the 166,000 ton average of the last three years, 1925- 1927. Unless something unexpected happens it is probable that BlJL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 17 the average prune production 18 ' 19 of California will have increased approximately 75 per cent in the decade from 1920 to 1930. Variables Which May Affect Average Future Yields. — In consider- ing this forecast of the probable future average production of prunes it should be remembered that it is based on average yields per acre in recent years. If low prices prevail in the prune industry for several years the production of the state and average yields per bearing acre may be reduced below this average. During the next few years some trees will doubtless be neglected and some acreage abandoned or pulled out. One must also consider the possibility that the "die-back" of prunes may reduce the acreage and production of prunes noticeably in certain localities in the state in the future. Economizing on pro- duction costs is likely to decrease the yields of some orchards. The proportion of bearing acreage not yet in full bearing and the amount coming into bearing that is planted on heavy or light-yielding sites obviously will also affect average yields in the future, but how much no one knows. A detailed census enumeration would be necessary to secure such facts. In Oregon the increasing yields from young bearing trees as they approach full-bearing age indicates a substantial increase in production even though no more trees come into bearing for several years. PACIFIC NORTHWEST PRODUCTION OUTLOOK The production of dried prunes in Oregon and Washington fluc- tuates greatly from year to year but has averaged nearly 25,000 tons during the last three years (see table 2, page 19). Critchfield, who has carefully studied the Pacific Northwest prune situation, states that "taking into account the per-acre production of trees of different ages, it is estimated that there will be an increase of about 15 to 20 per cent in the average annual production of northwestern prunes when all of these trees are in full bearing, ' ' which will be within the next six or seven years, 20 Production may, therefore, average over 30,000 tons within a few years. i8,i9 This rough forecast of average production does not apply to any one year but refers to an average of at least three years. Actual production in any given year included in the period of years for which the forecast is made may be considerably above or below the predicted average, since yields per acre may change greatly from year to year, making it impossible ordinarily to predict as much as a year ahead of time what the approximate yield per acre for any particular year will be. However, one can estimate with a fair degree of accuracy what average yields over a period of several years may be, judging largely by average yields in the past. 20 See Critchfield, B. H. Demand, marketing, and production of Oregon and Washington prunes. U. S. Dept. Agr. Dept. Circ. 416:35-39. 1927. 18 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION WORLD PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Considering the outlook in both California and the Pacific North- west it seems that the trend of United States production of dried prunes may be upward for several years. Unless an unusually large mortality in acreage occurs or average yields per acre decline appre- ciably, national production of prunes during the next few years may average in the neighborhood of 220,000 tons a year. If production in France should remain at an average of about 10,000 tons, and Jugo- slavian exports at approximately 40,000, world commercial produc- tion of dried prunes, which has averaged about 230,000 tons in recent years (see table 2, page 19), may average 270,000, or as large as the crop of 1927, over a period of several years. Ccm/7%rc/a/ Ot/f/x/f of frfed ffajnes fy Countries, /&99-/S27 Fig. 5. — Prune production in France has declined greatly during the last twenty years. In California and the Pacific Northwest it has expanded noticeably, and most rapidly in California. The output of Jugoslavia reached its peak in 1904. Its average since the war has been considerably greater than the 1909- 1913 average. (Data from table 2.) Bul. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 19 TABLE 2 Commercial Production of Dried Prunes by Countries, 1898-1928 Year Pacific California U. S. total Jugoslavia France World Northwest production production production exports production total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Thousands of short tons, i.e., 000 omitted 1898 8.5 45.2 53.7 45 44.0 143 1899 1.5 57.1 58.6 55 10 124 1900 5.0 87.0 92.0 49 45.0 186 1901 12.0 40.8 52.8 42 10.0 105 1902 6.5 98.5 105.0 70 5.5 180 1903 15.0 82.5 97.5 37 2.7 140 1904 3.0 67.5 71.5 108 58.8 238 1905 5.5 31.3 36.8 50 45.5 132 1906 7.5 92.5 100.0 55 40.0 195 1907 12.0 53.0 65.0 35 36.8 137 1908 8.0 28.5 36.5 85 47.2 169 1909 15.0 75.0 90.0 15 44.7 150 1910 10.0 40.0 50.0 35 9.0 94 1911 11.5 95.0 107.0 50 13.1 170 1912 4.0 102.5 106.5 5 19.5 131 1913 14.0 48.0 62.0 48 13.9 124 1914 5.3 9.3 21.3 11.5 30.5 17.5 17.5 56.0 92.5 78.5 109 45.0 135.0 97.5 61.3 101.8 99.8 120.5 75.5 157.5 115.0 14.1 13.8 5.3 7.6 1.2 5.8 13.9 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 53 182 1921 13.3 100.0 113.3 26 6.4 146 1922 36.0 130.0 166.0 57 2.4 225 1923 25.0 130.0 155.0 62 29.7 247 1924 25.0 139.0 164.0 5 9.0 178 1925 13.0 146.0 159.0 48 4.0 211 1926 45.0 150.0 195.0 52 9.4 256 1927 23.0 203.0 226.0 34 9.3 269 1928 2.3* 185.0* 187.3* 28* 1.5* 217* Averages 1899-03 8.0 73.2 81.2 51 14.6 147 1904-08 7.2 54.6 62.0 67 45.7 174 1909-13 10.9 72.1 83.1 31 20.0 134 1923-27 26.2 153.6 179.8 40 12.3 232 Per cent of world total 1899-03 5.4 49.8 55.2 34.7 9.9 100 1904-08 4.1 31.4 35.6 38.5 26.3 100 1909-13 8.1 53.8 62.0 23.1 14.9 100 1923-27 11.3 66 2 77.5 17.2 5.3 100 * Data for 1928 are preliminary estimates from: California Division of Markets, Prune Market Information Bul. 11, (mimeo.) Nov. 17, 1928. Sources of data: Col. 2. — Figures through 1926 compiled from California Fruit News and Eeports of the Oregon State Board of Horticulture, the earlier figures being rough estimates made in most cases by the trade or by Oregon county horti- cultural inspectors. Data for 1927 from: California Division of Markets, Prune Market Information, Bul. 11 (mimeo.), Nov. 17, 1928. Col. 3. — Data through 1918 compiled from ' trade ' estimates made by the editor of, and published in, the California Fruit News. Data for 1919-1927 compiled from annual California Crop Eeports. There are some indications, (Continued at top of page 20) 20 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION (Continued from page 19) not altogether conclusive, that estimates for a decade or more previous to 1923 are too low as compared with the estimates for 1923-1927. Col. 4. — Sum of items for corresponding years in cols. 2 and 3. Col. 5. — Data for 1898-1908 based on very rough estimates of Bosnian and Serbian exports of dried prunes .by crop years, as reported in scattered news items in the California Fruit Grower (now California Fruit News), and upon official data of calendar-year exports of Serbia, and of Austria-Hungary exports, imports, movements through the country from Serbia to other countries, and movement between Austria and Hungary. See footnote 23, page 21, for the pre-war prune-producing areas now included in Jugoslavia. Data for 1909- 1913 are the sum of Serbian exports by calendar years from official sources and of Bosnian exports from unofficial sources as reported by the Royal Inspector of Agriculture, Tuzla, Bosnia. Data for 1920-1928 are for approxi- mate crop years and are based on official Jugoslavian export statistics, supplied, as were 1909-1912 data also, by the Division of Historical and Statistical Research, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. See footnote 22, page 21, for reasons why Jugoslavian exports are used instead of production estimates. Col. 6. — Data for 1898-1903 are rough trade estimates compiled from the California Fruit Grower. Years 1904-1923, official estimates from Agricole Statistique, compiled by Lucien Memminger, American Consul at Bordeaux, France, and published in California Fruit News, April 17, 1926, p. 4. Years 1924-1927 compiled from mimeographed releases enumerated as sources for col. 5. Conversion factor, 1 metric quintal equals 220.46 pounds, or 0.11023 short tons. Col. 7. — Total of the countries included in this table. A few thousand tons not included in this total are produced elsewhere. See page 23. PRODUCTION IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES21 Relative Importance. — Nearly one-fourth of the average world commercial 22 crop of about 230,000 tons of prunes has been produced outside of the United States in recent years (see figures 5 and 6, and table 2). The southern European country of Jugoslavia, the principal competitor of the United States in international trade in prunes, now contributes an average of nearly 20 per cent of world commercial production. France, the only other important country producing and exporting prunes on a commercial scale, has averaged only about 5 per cent, while California accounted for about 6.6 per cent, during the five years 1923-1927. The output of the Pacific Northwest now averages about 12 per cent of the world total and approximately 15 per cent of our national total. ^ 21 The status of, and the outlook for production and international trade-in dried prunes in the chief prune-producing countries of the world, is discussed in moderate detail in: Wheeler, L. A. International trade in dried fruit, U. S. Dept. Com., Bur. For. and Dom. Com. Trade Promotion Series Bui. 44:40-55. 1927. The same information is briefly summarized by Wheeler in Critchfield, B. H. Demand, marketing, and production of Oregon and Washington prunes. U. S. Dept. Agr. Dept. Cir. 416:23-25, 34-40. 1927. The authors of both of these bulletins based much of their discussion of the French prune industry upon an unpublished report (about 70 typewritten pages) from Consul Lucien Memminger, Bordeaux, November, 1925; and much of the discussion of the 22 See page 21. BUL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 21 Jugoslavia. — The limited available statistics on Jugoslavian dried- prune production 23 indicate that the average crop since the war has been about 70,000 tons, or approximately 30 per cent of world pro- duction (including Jugoslavian domestic consumption) and slightly over 50 per cent as much as that of California, Post-war world com- mercial production (excluding Jugoslavian domestic consumption) has been appreciably greater than the average for the five years 1909- 1913 (see figure 5). Indications are that post-war exports of Jugo- slavian prunes have been approximately one-third greater than during the period 1909-1913 immediately preceding the war, but about 40 per cent less than during the five years 1904-1908 (see table 2). Jugoslavian industry upon mimeographed releases of reports from Consul K. S. Patton, Belgrade, and from Edwin Smith, fruit specialist of the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics in Europe. These reports and current information bringing them up to date are found in the U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce mimeographed weekly news release, Foodstuffs 'Bound the World — Canned and Dried Fruits section; and in the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics mimeographed releases on Foreign News on Prunes issued frequently at irregular intervals beginning August, 1925. The Division of Markets of the California Department of Agriculture is now issuing mimeo- graphed releases on the current production and marketing situation of dried prunes which includes much of the more important information on prunes that is issued in the two series of federal releases noted above. 22 World commercial dried-prune production as used throughout this bulletin refers to the data in table 2, which include the exported portion of Jugoslavian production but not that consumed at home. Export data have been used instead of estimates of dried-prune production because they are of considerably more value, for many purposes, than' the dried production estimates available for years since the war, being more accurate and of greater commercial signi- ficance. Moreover, the available data before the war are estimates of exported or exportable surplus rather than of dried-prune production. The domestic consumption of Jugoslavian dried-prunes probably varies but little and hence the proportion of the dried-prune crop exported varies relatively more widely than production. The unofficial estimates of Jugoslavian total dried-prune production since the war are very rough approximations only, based on the probable utilization of the plum crop, 40 per cent being considered as about the normal proportion of the total plum crop dried. These estimates of the American Consul, K. S. Patton, at Belgrade (compiled from mimeographed releases of U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Foreign News on Prunes, and U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Foodstuffs 'Bound the World: Canned and Dried Fruits) in thousands of tons are 1920, 66.4; 1921, 80.3; 1922, 83.6; 1923, 85.8; 1924, 28.8; 1925, 80.8; 1926, 83.0; 1927, not available. 23 Before the war the prune-producing areas of the present Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes — popularly known as Jugoslavia — were chiefly those of Bosnia and of Northern Serbia. So-called Bosnian prunes include a considerable output from Herzegovina, just south of Bosnia, and Croatia to the north, as well as from Bosnia proper. Before the war these provinces were all included in the Austrian Empire, while the Serbian prune-producing area was in Serbia proper. Since the war the Serbian prune-producing area has apparently accounted for roughly about two-thirds of the Jugoslavian dried-prune output, the remainder coming largely from the Bosnian area (including Herzegovina and Croatia). 22 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Since the war the relative fluctuations from year to year in Jugo- slavian production, and particularly in the exportable surplus of dried prunes, have been much greater than for California prunes but much less than for the French crop. These upsetting variations are accounted for by great changes in yield per acre and in the amount of the plum crop utilized for drying and particularly for exporting. In spite of the commercial importance of the exports of dried prunes from Jugoslavia, plum-growing was originally, and still is, secondary to the production of grain. The drying of prunes for export is, more- over, of secondary importance to the making of plum brandy for domestic use. The consumption of plums at home makes it very difficult to forecast accurately the probable exportable surplus of dried prunes for any one year and hence, in some years, introduces a large element of uncertainty in the potential demand for California prunes in European markets. Those best informed regarding the outlook for dried-prune pro- duction in Jugoslavia during the next decade or more believe that prunes from there will probably continue to offer as. much competi- tion to our prunes m European markets, on the average, as in recent years, and that possibly the competition from this source may increase. Large plantings of seedlings since the war are the strongest indication of the possibility of increasing plum production in the future, but these are said to be largely of a variety producing plums better suited for brandy-making than for drying. The government is trying to encourage the prune industry by subsidizing plum-tree nurseries and by regulations designed to improve the method of drying and pre- paring prunes for market. On the other hand recent reports indicate that possibly insect and fungous pests may be in jurying the prune orchards somewhat more than in the past. There has been no notice- able upward trend in either dried-prune production or exports since 1920. Upon the basis of the limited facts available one cannot fore- cast the trend of either with any assurance. Because of the com- mercial importance of the Jugoslavian dried-prune industry we need more and better information regarding its significant developments. France. — The average production of prunes in France since the war has been very small and has, moreover, fluctuated violently from year to year (see fig. 6). The post-war average of less than 11,000 tons is only about one-half the 1909-1913 average and less than one- fourth of that for 1904-1908 (see table 2). Since the war the output has ranged from as high as 30,000 tons to as low as about 2,000. These violent fluctuations in output result in decided variations in French Bul.462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 23 foreign trade in prunes since France is on an export basis in years of large prune crops, but on an import basis whenever the crop is small. As prune production in France is apparently not tending to increase, it seems unlikely that California prunes will meet any greater competition from this source in the near future than in recent years. Great fluctuations in the size of the crops, however, may be expected as in the past. Wor/d Co/77/77erc/a/ Pr/ed-Prc//?? Proc/t/cr/os? jtx/ Cov/yfr/es, /220-/92& zoo /92I /92Z /9Z3 1924 /925 /926 /927 /928 Pig. 6. — Largely because of increased production in California, which pro- duces two-thirds of the world commercial production of prunes, there has been an upward trend in the world output of prunes since 1920. Fluctuations in California, and hence in world, production have been relatively small com- pared with variations in the output of Jugoslavia, France, and the Pacific Northwest. (Data from table 2.) Other Countries. 24 " — Although dried-prune production has never been of commercial importance in any foreign countries besides France and Jugoslavia, there are a number of countries in which there are possibilities of future development. Roumania, Australia, South Africa, and Persia all produce small quantities of dried prunes, substantially all of which are consumed at home. In the first three of these countries, however, the dried-prune industry might be developed on a commercial scale. Roumania, the agriculture of which is in many ways similar to that of Jugoslavia, already produces large quantities of plums suitable for drying, but most of these are eaten in 24 In 1923 Australia produced 584 short tons of dried prunes. The Union of South Africa has averaged less than 1,000' tons in recent years, and Persia approximately 1,000 tons. See: Wheeler, L. A. International trade in dried fruit. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bur. For. and Dom. Commerce, Trade Promotion Series Bui. 44:52-53. 1927. Roumania sometimes dries as many as 4,000 or 5,000 tons of prunes of very small sizes. 24 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION the fresh state or made into brandy and jam. The possibilities of future competition from Australian and South African prunes are significant because of the adaptability of large areas in these countries to plum growing, together with the fact that, as British countries, their largest export market would most likely be the United Kingdom, which is now second only to Germany as a foreign market for California prunes. TABLE 3 Average Dried-Prune Exports from Chief Producing Regions to Principal Markets, 1923-1927 Principal markets Germany United Kingdom. France Netherlands Belgium Scandinavia Canada Others Total. Percentage of grand total.. Producing regions Average 1923-1927 Average 1923-26 Total *Oregon and Wash- ington California United States Jugo- slavia France Thousands of pounds i.e., 000 omitted 7,223 437 138 809 1,395 2,052 19, 040 * 7.3 35,341 27,290 21,603 12,282 4,373 12,621 17,301 12,980 143,791 55.1 42,327 34,513 22,040 12,420 5,182 14,016 17,301 15,032 162,831 62.4 27,100 1,591 2,262 1,078 233 758 t 55.269J 88,291 33.9 645 2,726 796 465 t t ,994 9,636 3.7 70,072 38,830 24,302 14,294 5,880 14,774 17,301 75,295 260,758 100.0 Per cent of total of each producing region Germany United Kingdom France Netherlands Belgium Scandinavia Canada Others 36.7 37.9 2.3 0.7 4.3 7.3 * 10.8 Total. 100.0 24.6 19.0 15.0 8.5 3.0 8.9 12.0 9.0 100.0 26.0 21.2 13.5 7.6 3.3 10 100.0 30.7 1.8 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.9 t 62.6 100.0 6.7 28.3 4.8 t t 51. 9J 100.0 26.9 14.9 9.3 5.5 2.3 5.7 6.6 28.8 100.0 * These data for Oregon and Washington do not account for the total exports of northwestern prunes as they are overseas exports direct from the Oregon customs district only. t Data not available for these countries individually and hence are included in "others." t Most Jugoslavian prune exports go to central and southern European countries. During the period 1923-1927 Italy took 21.3 per cent, Austria 15.8, Czechoslovakia 13.4, Hungary 5.0, and Switzerland 4.2 per cent. Sources of data: Date are all for calendar years. Col. 1. — Compiled from official data of the U. S. Bureau Foreign and Domestic Commerce for this district. Data are not available on exports of Oregon and Washington prunes to Canada nor by rail and water to oversea countries via Bui*. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 25 other U. S. customs districts. Indirect exports overseas, however, are believed to be relatively small. Col. 2. — California exports are computed by subtracting Oregon and Wash- ington exports from United States exports and hence indicated California exports to Canada include an unknown amount of exports of northwestern prunes. Col. 3. — Compiled from TJ. S. Bur. For. Dom. Commerce, Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States. Cols. 4 and 5. — Compiled from official Jugoslavian and French data from: Wheeler, L. A. International trade in dried fruit, U. S. Bur. For. Dom., Com- merce Trade Promotion Series Bui. 44:47, 52. 1927; and from Foodstuffs 'Bound the World: Canned and Dried Fruit. INTERNATIONAL TRADE Relative Importance of Exporting Countries. — An average of over one-half of the estimated world production (total of commercial and non-commercial) of dried prunes has entered into international trade during the last five years, and the proportion of world exports which has originated in each producing region has corresponded roughly US. prune Pr&tisc/yo/?, /Deports & J?o/vesf/c S27 ISO too: Fig. 7. — United States production, consumption, and exports of prunes have all increased much more rapidly than population during the last twenty years. (Data from table 5, page 31.) to the percentage of the world dried-prune crop which each has pro- duced. Of the average annual world export of dried prunes of over 260 million pounds in recent years, the United States has exported over 62 per cent. California alone has contributed approximately 55 per cent, Jugoslavia nearly 34 per cent, the Pacific Northwest slightly over 7 per cent, and France less than 4 per cent (table 3). Trend and Fluctuations in United States Exports. — The trend in exports of prunes from the United States has been rapidly upward during the last thirty years, with the exception of the period during 26 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION the war (see fig. 7). The rapid, increase in the importance of foreign markets is shown by the fact that in the period 1899-1903 about 25 per cent of average national production of approximately 162 million pounds was exported, compared with 48 per cent of an average of 165 million pounds in the period 1909-1913. During the five years 1922-1926, 44 per cent of an average of about 328 million pounds has been exported. A study of figure 7 shows that in the past there have been rela- tively 25 violent fluctuations from year to year in the quantity of prunes exported. Since the war, however, these variations have been smaller than in pre-war days. Fluctuations in California production and Jugoslavian exports account for much of the variation in our annual exports. The percentage of our production exported has not varied nearly as much as the actual quantity exported. Relative fluctuations in our exports to important individual coun- tries (see table 14, page 68) have been the smallest for Canada, largely because of its proximity to the United States and its distance from European producing areas. Exports to the United Kingdom have varied considerably more than have those to Canada but much less than those to Germany. Most of the violent fluctuations in German imports from this country seem to be largely the result of changes in the quantities imported from Jugoslavia and the latter, in turn, are largely due to changes in Jugoslavian production and total exportable surplus. During the last five years Germany has received about 60 per cent of her imports from the United States, whereas the United Kingdom has taken nearly 90 per cent of hers from us. Competition in Chief Foreign Markets. — The people of Western Europe are the greatest consumers of dried prunes. They have imported nearly 95 per cent of world exports in recent years and 25 Significance of Semi-Logarithmic or Ratio Charts. — In picturing statistical data one frequently wishes to emphasize comparisons of percentage or pro- portional changes rather than absolute amounts. For the purpose of showing such relative changes a ratio scale, such as the vertical scale in figure 7, is most useful. Equal vertical distances on the semi-logarithmic paper on which the figure is plotted picture equal percentages (rates) of change. For convenience in plotting and reading, however, the scale has been numbered in millions of pounds. With the usual or arithmetic scale on ordinary cross-section paper, such as was used in figure 4, page 16, the distance between the vertical lines 20 and 40 is pictured as twice as great as the distance from 10 to 20. In figure 7, however, the vertical distance from 20 to 40 is just equal to the distance from 10 to 20', for the reason that 20 bears the same ratio to 40 that 10 does to 20. It is obvious that 20 is twice as great as 10; in other words, 20 is 100 per cent greater than 10. Likewise, 40 1 is twice as great as 20, or, in other words, 40 is 100 per cent greater. Equal distances on the scale cor- respond to equal relative or percentage changes, and not, as in figure 4, to equal absolute differences: Equal percentage increases over a series of years, when plotted on semi-logarithmic paper, are represented by a straight line. BUI*. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 27 nearly 90 per cent of our own exports, Canada being the only impor- tant importer of United States prunes aside from countries in Western Europe (See table 3). Germany imports far more prunes than any other country and is the most important foreign outlet for both Jugo- slavian and United States prunes. During the last five years nearly 27 per cent of world exports went to Germany, over 30 per cent of Jugoslavian exports going there and about 25 per cent of our own. The United Kingdom, the next most important prune importer, took practically 15 per cent of Jugoslavian exports during this period and over 20 per cent of those from the United States. The United King- dom is the leading market for exports from France. France ranks third in the tonnage of prunes imported from the United States and also from the world. As a foreign market for California prunes Canada ranks fourth, following France in importance. The Nether- lands have averaged fifth, Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, and Norway as a group) sixth, and Belgium seventh during the last five years. Jugoslavian Competition in Germany. — Partly because of the rela- tively lower prices at which Jugoslavian prunes are usually sold, they ordinarily find preference over ours in German markets. Our exports to Germany, therefore, vary almost inversely with Jugoslavian pro- duction and exports to Germany. In six of the last eight years Ger- many has secured a larger percentage of her total imports of dried prunes from Jugoslavia than from the United States. On the average, however, less than 40 per cent of total German prune imports during the last five years (1923-1927) were obtained from Jugoslavia and 60 per cent from the United States (see table 3) . Very small Jugoslavian production and exports in the crop years 1924 and 1927 plus un- usually heavy California production and exports in 1927 accounts for this situation. Nearly one-fifth of Jugoslavian prune exports have gone to Czechoslovakia during the last four years. There has been a decided tendency for both the quantity and the proportion of Jugo- slavian exports to Czechoslovakia to increase since 1920, while there has apparently been a slight tendency for the proportion exported to Germany to decline. If these tendencies should continue, the result may be an increase in German imports of our prunes. 26 26 The recent reduction in the German tariff on prunes, which became effec- tive December 20, 1927, should benefit the American industry. The import duty on unpacked prunes in sacks or barrels of at least 176 pounds is reduced from $1.08 per hundred pounds to $0.65, and that on prunes otherwise packed from $2.16 to $0.86. The reduction on "prunes otherwise packed' ' should stimulate exports of packed prunes, since the high duty heretofore prevailing made it necessary to ship most of the prunes destined for Germany in bulk. See California Fruit News. Jan. 7, 1928, p. 8. 28 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION Chief Markets for Jugoslavian Prunes. — Most Jugoslavian prune exports go to those European countries which, with the exception of Germany, import very few prunes from the United States. These countries, however, re-export a considerable part of their Jugoslavian prune imports to other European markets such as the Scandinavian countries and Poland. Germany, the most important market for Jugoslavian prunes, has taken over 30 per cent of those exported in recent years. In addition, nearly 60 per cent have been exported to five neighboring countries, Italy taking approximately 21 per cent, Austria 16, Czechoslovakia 13, Hungary 5, and Switzerland 4 per cent. Jugoslavian export trade is largely confined to neighboring European countries chiefly because of the interior position of the country and the large demand for cheap prunes in central and northwestern Europe. French Foreign Trade. — France is the only prune-producing coun- try of any importance which imports as well as exports dried prunes. Since the war, imports, which come from California chiefly, have averaged about three times the exports. The prunes imported by the French are largely consumed at home and are in general of a lower quality than the superior pack which is exported. During the last two decades French exports of prunes have declined even more rapidly than production. The production of prunes in France since the war has averaged only about one-half of the 1909-1913 average (see table 2), whereas exports are only slightly more than one-third of the pre- war figure. 27 The United Kingdom has long been the chief market for prunes exported from France, nearly one-third going to this country since the war. Argentina, Germany, and the Netherlands are next in importance, each taking slightly over 10 per cent. The proportion taken by Germany has decreased greatly since pre-war days and that of the Netherlands has remained about the same. The proportion taken by Argentina, about 10 per cent of French exports, shows a noticeable increase, although the absolute quantity, an average of about two million pounds, is still small. 27 To try to encourage domestic production of prunes, France recently greatly increased the protective tariff on prunes imported from other countries. It is difficult to estimate the effect of the new rates upon our exports to France, Consul Lucien Memminger at Bordeaux reports. "The new rates, which went into effect on March 16, provide for a duty of 80 francs per 100 kilos ($1,427 per 100 pounds) for all prunes of whatever size packed in cases or boxes. For prunes otherwise packed (usually undipped prunes in sacks) the new rates are: 80 franc per 100 kilos, ($1,427 per 100 pounds) for prunes counting 80 or less per 500 grams, and 60 francs per 100 kilos ($1.07 per 100 pounds) for prunes counting more than 80 per 500 grams. These are the so-called minimum rates BUL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 29 GENERAL FRUIT SITUATION Any successful campaign to increase the demand for prunes must take into consideration the plentiful and low-priced supplies of dried fruits other than prunes that are available to consumers. The ma- jority of prune eaters are apparently persons with medium and small incomes. They are more price sensitive than the well-to-do and are inclined to watch prices and to eat more of the cheaper kinds of fresh, canned, and dried fruits than of the expensive kinds. When there are many fruits available at low prices, as has been the case in recent years and may be so for several years, competition between them for a larger place in the consumer's diet is very keen. The limited capacity of the consumer's stomach means that if he eats more of one fruit he will probably eat correspondingly less of others, unless he reduces his consumption of some other kinds of foods, such as vegeta- bles, cereals, or meats. National production of many fruits, several of which compete with prunes, to some extent at least, has increased rapidly in the last decade, making it difficult to market many fruits at satisfactory prices in years when weather conditions have been favorable for good yields of fruit in general. Analysis of available California data points to the conclusion that large increases in the total fruit production of the state usually result in low prices to growers. 28 The California output of dried fruits has more than doubled since the pre-war period, 1910-1914 (see table 4), and will probably continue to expand until 1930, at least. During the same period the national canned-fruit pack, including Hawaiian pineapples, has multiplied by three and promises to grow still further. 29 The national output of fruits which which apply to imports from the United States as well as to imports from Jugoslavia, the other principal source of French imports. The general tariff is double these minimum rates. The minimum rates represent an increase over the old rate, which was 20.40 francs per 100 kilos ($0,364 per 100 pounds), of about 400 per cent for all prunes packed in cases and for unpacked prunes counting 80 or less per 500 grams, and of about 300 per cent for unpacked prunes counting more than 80 per 500 grams. (U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign News on Prunes. F. S. P-51 (mimeo.). April 12, 1928.) This article also discusses the relation of the new duty to American prune sizes and the effect of new rates on imports of American prunes at Bordeaux. 28 Shear, S. W., and H. F. Gould. Economic status of the grape industry. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 429:96. 1927. 29 In connection with a discussion of the canning-pear situation the author presented a brief statement of the trend of canned-fruit production in the United States, Hawaii, Australia, and the Union of South Africa in: Shear, S. W. Economic aspects of the pear industry. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 452:84-87, 94-97. 1928. 30 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION are consumed in fresh form, such as oranges, grapes, peaches, pears, and cantaloupes, has likewise grown rapidly since pre-war days. Apparently there will be no abatement for several years in the keen competition which prunes will normally meet from the plentiful and low-priced fruit which will probably be placed upon the market. 30 TABLE 4 California Dried-Fruit Production, Average, 1910-1914 and 1923-1927 Average, 1910-1914 Average, 1923-1927 Change from to 1923 1910-1914 -1927 Percentage change from Tons Per cent Tons Per cent Tons Per cent 1910-1914to 1923-1927 Raisins 75,900 68,300 25,800 15,450 5,155 3,300 1,550 38.9 34.9 13.2 7.9 2.6 1.7 0.8 249,000 153,600 22,420 21,560 10,190 8,400 3,270 53.1 32.8 4.8 4 6 2.2 1.8 0.7 + 173,100 + 85,300 - 3,380 + 6,110 + 5,035 + 5,100 + 1,720 +63.5 +31.2 - 1.2 + 2.2 + 1.8 + 1.9 + 0.6 +228.1 Prunes +125.0 - 13.0 + 39.2 Figs + 97.8 Apples +154.7 +111 Total 195,455 100.0 483,440 10D.0 + 272,985 100.0 +139.2 Sources of data: Data for 1910-1914 for: raisins: Shear, S. W., and H. F., Gould. Economic status of the grape industry. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 429:124. 1927. For prunes: table 2, page 19. For pears: Shear, S. W. Economic aspects of the pear industry. California Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 452:102. 1928. Data for all other fruits, 1910-1914, and for all fruits, 1923-1927, from: Kaufman, E. E. California crop report for 1927. California State Dept. Agr. Spec. Pub. 86:35. 1928. CONSUMPTION OF DRIED FRUITS Domestic Consumption of Primes. — United States consumption of dried prunes has increased since the decade before the war from about 1.0 pounds per capita to 1.6 pounds during the five years 1921-1925 (see figure 8). With the prospects of heavy production in this coun- try during the next few years and no decrease in foreign production and exports, our domestic consumption of prunes will continue to be large, unless something very unexpected happens, The outlook for large average crops of prunes and of many other dried fruits and fresh and canned fruits, indicates that the level of fruit prices pre- vailing during the next few years is likely to be low. 30 Those who wish to study the changes which have taken place in the supply, price, and utilization of our more important fruits during the last two decades should consult the economic bulletins which have been issued by the College of Agriculture at Berkeley during the past three years. They include studies of the following fruits: peaches, cantaloupes, apricots, grapes, water- melons, pears, oranges, lemons, grapefruit, and plums. 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CD I WMQOCnvlOOOCOC' X} cc as 3 O :s3 •o H "B S O S u CO CCCD 111 *< CD '"' w O o p 4 32 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Present consumption is the same as the average of the years 1899- 1903, during which period California and total world production was larger than the average of the following decade and exports were taking only about 25 per cent of our production out of the domestic market (see table 5). Prune prices for several years after 1900 were, as during recent years, very low and carryovers frequent. From 1902 to 1910 the trend of California production and of United States consumption was downward (see figures 7, page 25, and 13, page 48). Consumption declined more rapidly than production, however, as a result of the expansion of our export trade in dried prunes, which was stimulated by the rapid decline in production and exports of European commercial prune-producing areas. Our export trade dur- ing the period 1909-1913 accounted for 48 per cent of our national production, a larger percentage than the average of recent years. In spite of the noticeable pre-war increase in our production which began about 1909, exports were heavy enough in the years 1909-1913 to reduce our per-capita consumption to about 0.9 pound, the lowest five-year average for thirty years. The increased volume of our exports, however, was largely due to the increased demand for our prunes resulting from the smallest European production of prunes during the period 1909-1913 of any five years in the last three de- cades (see figure 5, page 18). There is little likelihood that European production will average much lower for some time than it has during the last four or five years. We cannot, therefore, expect any great expansion of foreign demand for our prunes on the average during the next few years on this score alone. Foreign Consumption of Prunes. — Both the total and the per- capita consumption of dried prunes has substantially increased in nearly all of the chief prune-consuming countries since pre-war years. Comparison of averages for the pre-war years 1909-1913 and for the post-war years 1921-1925 as shown in table 6, and figure 8, show these increases clearly and also the relative importance of these mar- kets. (See also table 3, page 24.) Germany is the only important prune-producing country whose total consumption of prunes has aver- aged lower in recent years than before the war. In two years since the war, however, German dried-prune imports (net) have been larger than the pre-war average, and it seems probable that lower average post-war consumption is largely due to temporary reduction in the purchasing power of the Germans, who, in the past, have nor- mally been one of the best markets for prunes. Bui*. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 33 TABLE 6 Dried-Prune Consumption by Chief Countries, Averages 1909-1913 and 1921-1925 Total consumption Per capita consumption Countries 1909-13 average, thousands of pounds 1921-25 average, thousands of pounds Per cent change 1909-13 average, pounds 1921-25 average, pounds Per cent change United States 86,800 70,290 20,357 28,347 177,000 63,000 41,277 38,478 15,800 14,325 13,018 10,035 5,933 5,778 5,958 4,973 3,722 1,384 1,693 +104 - 10 +103 + 36 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.9 10 0.6 1.6 1.8 3.1 10 1.5 2.3 0.6 11 0.9 1.9 + 78 - 5 + 96 + 43 Poland 10,386 4,221 5,039 4,859 3,821 3,314 4,780 2,408 900 1,244 + 38 +203 + 99 + 22 + 51 + 80 + 4 + 55 + 54 + 36 1.2 0.7 1.8 0.9 10 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.7 + 38 + 157 Denmark + 73 + 18 + 43 + 66 + 41 + 15 Source of data: Data are approximate net imports by calendar years compiled from: Wheeler, L. A. International Trade in Dried Fruit. U. S. Dept. Com. Bur. For. and Dom. Com. Trade Promotion Series 44:52-55, 97-113; 1927; with the exceptions noted below. United States and France. — Domestic production consumed at home by crop years taken into consideration. (See table 2, page 19, and 5, page 31.) United States export and production data are for crop years, while those for France are a combination of calendar year exports and imports and production by crop years. Germany. — As import data list prunes separately but export data include them in all dried fruits, net imports are estimates based on the assumption that dried-fruit exports are largely prunes; 3 million of the 3,145,000 pounds of dried-fruit exports were subtracted from average prune imports, calendar years 1909-1913, and 7 million out of an average of about 7,300,000 pounds for the crop years 1923-1927. Poland. — Imports for calendar years 1924-1927. Norway. — The only available import data, as given, include dates together with prunes. Dates, however, probably constitute a very small part of the total as they are considered a luxury in Scandinavian countries and are not consumed in large quantities. Of the total of prune and date imports (which are given separately for Denmark and Sweden) an average of about 83 per cent were prunes in Denmark and about 97 per cent in Sweden during both the pre-war and the post-war periods included in this table. New Zealand. — Data for 1909-1913 are estimates based upon exports from United States to that country. 34 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Figure 8 and table 6 show that the people of northwestern Europe consume more prunes per capita than any other equally large and well-populated area in the world. Many of these countries now con- sume a pound or more of dried prunes per capita annually and nearly all of them have shown a decided increase in per-capita con- sumption since pre-war days. /Isr Cop/fa f^rurye Consumpt/or? by Ch/ef Counfr/es G AZ A6 2 o ze Pe/?/7?arA- - Norway Ar^e/?t/r?a •- - A/et/?er/a/7as L//?/fetf 'States Canaa'a 3w/tzer/ar?c/ Germane/- - - P/a/ana* Sweater? France Uiftf X/>7?do/?7 Pe/g/urr?- - - Fig. 8. — The people of northwestern Europe consume more dried prunes per capita than the people of any other important markets except the United States and Canada. (Data from table 6.) Argentina, the United States, Canada, and New Zealand are the only other important prune-consuming countries listed whose per- capita consumption is as large as that of most of these European coun- tries. The population of two of these countries — Argentina and New Zealand — is, unfortunately, too small to make them markets for large quantities of prunes at the present time. Relative Importance of Prunes. — About 25 per cent of the dried fruit consumed in the United States in recent years has been prunes, nearly 50 per cent in Denmark, approximately 45 per cent in Ger- many, about 20 per cent in the Netherlands, Canada, and Belgium, and only 11 per cent in the United Kingdom. Before the war (1909- Bui* 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 35 1913) prunes averaged about 21 per cent of the dried fruit consumed in the United States. In Canada, and in all important European markets but the United Kingdom, Belgium, and the Netherlands, they constituted a higher percentage than the present one. In most of the other important European markets, such as Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland, prunes constituted approximately 35 to 40 per cent of the total of all dried fruits consumed in pre- war years. TABLE 7 Dried Fruits: United States Production, Foreign Trade,, and Consumption, Average 1921-1925 Production Exports Imports Consumpti on Kind of fruit Tons Per cent Tons Per cent Tons Per cent Tons Per cent Pounds per capita 211,700 48.4 42,283 31.0 5,944 13,010 8.9 19.4 175,361 13,010 88,285 29,124 29,119 19,712 8,078 4,348 47.8 3.5 24.1 7.9 7.9 5.4 2.2 1.2 3.2 Currants 0.2 152,150 9,635 500 23,140 18,300 15,000* 6,000f 34.9 2.2 0.1 5.3 4 2 3.5 1.4 63,865 46.8 1.6 Figs 19,489 28,619 29.1 42.6 0.5 Dates 0.5 Peaches 3,428 10,222 10,652 6,000 2.5 7.5 7.8 4.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 Total 436,425 100.0 135,450 100.0 67,052 100.0 367,037 100.0 6.7 Estimated; does not include farm production. t Includes 3,000 short tons of dried pears. Source of data: Based on: Wheeler, L. A. International trade in dried fruit. TJ. S. Bur. For. and Dom. Commerce, Trade Promotion Series 44:2. 1927. Domestic Consumption of Dried Fruits. — Domestic consumption of dried fruits during recent years has averaged 6.7 pounds per capita compared with about 4.3 pounds during the period 1910-1914, an increase of over 50 per cent. Table 7 shows that prunes have consti- tuted nearly 35 per cent of our national production of dried fruits during the period 1921-1925 and that they account for 24 per cent of our consumption of these fruits. Nearly 48 per cent of our consump- tion of dried fruits has consisted of raisins. Imports swell our consumption of dried fruits other than prunes and raisins to such an extent that we consume a total of these other dried fruits — chiefly figs, dates, and peaches — amounting to about 23 per cent of all dried fruits or approximately the same proportion as prunes. During the years 1910-1914, however, prunes constituted only about 21 per cent of our total dried-fruit consumption, raisins 35 per cent, and all other dried fruits nearly 44 per cent. 36 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION GO a i W CM s § »~ ^H IO CO CO -* —1 OttH t^ CO OS >o H en o en tH 01 CM CJ OO >o cm IO o US CO CO ,— I o t^ OO ^H o >o ■* w> •<* IO CO co oj CO cm - CJ CO 00 o OS os ^ 00 ifl OS CO CO CO 00 >o OO CO en en en o CM OS >o o CO CO >o IO O CO ">* OS IO CM t^ o CO CD _ OS Cxi ,— 1 co CO OS rn CD in 5 en CM «* eo CJ co co 00 -* CO CO ,_, os CM o ■o OS OJ CO co _ CI CO o CO >* o CJ •* to en o co l ^ CM OS CO 6N »o CO OS >o CM 00 CM us o OO 00 CD IO _, US IO _ eo IO CI CO o CO CO CO OO r^ >o co en co CO CO CJ co CM OS GO N ^H ■tft OS CO H to N o o >o IO CO CO ^, _ OS „ r^ OS CD IO CJ rt -* CJ t^ C4 CJ «* CO ^ CO CO CM OS OO ^ 00 <* TH CO CO to H CO IO CJ r- CO o CO CO t^ „ r^ _l _ t^ on ^H OS ">t IO CI Tt< -* CO ■* CI ^ CM CM CJS 00 Cj co ,_, ,_, t^ CO ■* N OS o >* ■* ,_, o ^ CO t^ os Cn os o CM CJ s CO CD "* ^H OO ^ CI CJ CO ^ OS o CM eo CO IO >o OS ■* CJ OJ "" "* o CO >* CO o CN os CD US OO ^ en o i-H 1— 1 0O CO ,_, OS o o »o us en ^ ,_! 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CD < o o o 3 Pi 3 o a 3 SO os *-i i-i ^ Uj o CI O CO o o >o s o 1- o o o 00 OS o o p © o CI g Os CD CI »o GG o «H c3 +3 cd ed 13 on rd d -^> £ «H o O ri r« 1=1 ri o d t) o d O ft <& r-t 1 -t-3 (M i-H ' 1 1 ^ »24 ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ■ ,15* 3( ? /OO //O /20 /30 (40 /SO /60 /70 (80 /90 200 2/0 220 230 240 2SO 260 270 2SO 290 JOO Wor/d Cor7SV/77pf/0/7, f/70LSS0/7c/s Of toff* Fig. 14. — Changes in world consumption have accounted for nearly 75 per cent of the changes in the wholesale price of California prunes. Each black dot indicates the relation between world consumption and the price of prunes (in terms of dollars having a purchasing power equivalent to 1926 dollars) in the crop year indicated by the number beside the dot. (For example, 12 stands for 1912.) The line dd' shows the average relation between these two factors for twenty years, and, judging from supply only, indicates at about what wholesale price different-sized world prune crops could probably have best been moved into consumption without causing carryovers. For a more com- plete discussion, see text, pages 51-53. (Data from table 2, page 19, and table 10, page 50.) The line dd' shows how great the tendency is for the price of prunes to decline when annual world consumption is large or to rise when supplies are small. It is a line of average relationship based upon all the black dots and drawn so as to lie as closely as possible to all of them and at the same time to be smooth. If the data deter- mining the position of the black dots were absolutely correct and the world supply of prunes moving into consumption were the only fac- tor influencing price, all the black dots would fall exactly on the curve dd' and one could determine at just what wholesale price any Bui* 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 53 given-sized world crop of prunes could be moved into consumption without causing any carryover. The data by which the position of a number of the dots is determined are, however, very rough estimates, particularly as regards the tonnage of prunes which have moved into consumption in any given year. 48 Moreover, it is impossible to deter- mine at just what average price the whole supply of California prunes in any given years was sold, let alone that at which those produced elsewhere sold. The average relationship shown by the line dd f indicates that nearly 75 per cent of the changes in the annual wholesale price of California prunes can be accounted for by changes in world con- sumption of prunes, 49 Apparently there are other factors than the supply that affect the price which consumers will pay for prunes. Demand, that is, the amount that will be bought at any given price, may change as a result of advertising or because of improved, stan- dardized, and more attractive quality and packages or because of changes in the available supplies and prices of competing fruits. Indications are that, in order to induce consumers to eat a given ton- nage of prunes, a lower price will be necessary when other fruits are plentiful and cheap than when they are scarce and high in price. No doubt the reason that so many prunes were sold at a high price in 1921 was the general scarcity and the high price of many other fruits. Low prices and large crops of apples and raisins in 1912 probably help to account for the fact that the price of prunes was lower in that year than world supply alone would indicate as correct. Psychological factors may likewise influence the opinions of grow- ers and the trade regarding demand, supply, and price. In a number of the years for which prices are below the line dd' in figure 14, as in 1901, packers and wholesalers were extremely bearish, partly because prices had been too high the previous year and had resulted in a declining price, causing losses to those in the trade who had bought at high prices early in the season, and partly because movement into consumption was retarded by high prices, causing a carryover. On the contrary, prune prices for the 1911 crop were unreasonably high, largely because so many dealers made such large profits on the 1910 48 The data on purchasing power used in figure 14 are from col. 6 in table 10 and are described in the footnote to that table. The data compiled by the author on world commercial production (see table 2, page 19, and footnote 22, page 21) are rough estimates, particularly for pre-war years, and hence the conclusions given above, which are based thereon, are tentative only, subject to whatever gross errors may be resident in the data. 49 The inverse correlation between price and consumption as shown in figure , ^ r - - 14 is about —0.85. 54 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION crop, which was very short, causing prices to skyrocket, Many specu- lators bought prunes at high prices in the fall of 1911 holding them for the rising prices which never matured, and selling them finally at declining prices, The fall of 1912, therefore, found the trade so pessimistic that the price of the 1912 crop of prunes was abnormally low, considering world supply. Value of Figure 14 in Estimating Prices. — Although the curve of estimated prices (dd') in figure 14 should be useful in estimating the approximate wholesale price at which different-sized world crops of prunes can be sold in the future, other factors than supply must be taken into consideration. In the past some crops have apparently all moved into consumption during the current crop year at consid- erably lower prices and some at considerably higher prices than the curve dd' would indicate. Over 25 per cent of the difference in the prices pictured in figure 14 must be accounted for by the factors other than world consumption, such as fluctuations in demand due to changes in consumers' purchasing power, or in the effectiveness of advertising and merchandising methods, or in the supplies of com- peting fruits. Some of these facts are difficult to secure accurately and cannot be measured statistically. A trained judgment that can ordinarily be acquired only as a result of intimate first-hand acquain- tance with the business of marketing prunes is, of course, essential in deciding what is probably the best price policy to pursue under the conditions existing at any particular time. To illustrate how a grower might use figure 14 to determine about what price he should receive for his prunes at harvest time let us take the estimate of 1928 world commercial production of September of approximately 232,000 tons. 50 Locate 232 on the horizontal scale on the bottom line and from this point run a dotted vertical line up until it cuts dd' at A. Then from this point run a dotted horizontal line over until it strikes the left-hand vertical price scale at P'. Other factors being normal, this point indicates that all of the estimated 1928 world commercial output of 232,000 tons of prunes can probably be sold during the next twelve months at an average New York whole- sale price lever of about 7% cents a pound for 60/70 prunes (which average about 69 to the pound). Other influences on price, however, such as those mentioned in the paragraph above, may not be normal, and hence this estimated price might prove to be somewhat higher or lower than the average price at which California prunes actually sell. so Current prune prices to California growers and estimated world com- mercial production for 1928 as used in this illustration are taken from issues of the mimeographed Dried-Prune Eeports, issued by the Division of Markets of the California Department of Agriculture. BUL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 55 The grower, however, is interested in estimating the price which he himself might expect if packed prunes averaging 69 to the pound sell for about 7% cents a pound in New York during the coming crop year. It is estimated that the margin or difference between the price at which the wholesaler sells to grocers in New York and the price paid the California grower by packers is normally about 3 cents a pound. 51 Subtracting 3 cents from 7% cents gives an estimated farm price of 4% cents a pound to the California grower for prunes 69 's in size. To estimate the price of any other size from the estimated farm price of 4% cents^for 69 's the grower must take into consideration the prevailing price differentials being paid by packers. To illus- trate : the average basis price which California growers reported packers as paying for 62/71 's during the three months of July through September, 1928, was about 4 cents and for 41/51 's was 4% cents. These basis prices converted to actual prices per pound are 4.6 cents for 69 's and 6.2 cents for 49 's. 52 Apparently 49 's brought the grower a premium averaging about 1.6 cents a pound over 69 's. Adding 1.6 cents to the estimated farm price of 69 's of 4.6 cents gives an estimated farm price for 49 's based upon figure 14 of 6.2 cents, or the same average price which California growers reported as receiv- ing for their 1928 output of 69 prunes. This agreement of estimated with actual price may, in small part, be due to mere chance. The estimated price might easily differ from the actual farm price con- siderably in some years, even though the latter were properly in line with the true market situation. The factors other than world supply mentioned on page 54 as accounting for about 25 per cent of the changes in prices in some years might be far from average in some years, whereas they appear to be close to normal in 1928. si This rough estimate is based upon current trade information which indicates that in order to cover his costs and a normal profit, the packer usually plans on selling 25-pound packed boxes of prunes f.o.b. California shipping points at about 1% cents a pound more than the price which he pays the grower. The New York wholesaler probably has to sell to the retail grocer at an average price about iy 2 cents a pound higher than the f.o.b. price paid to the California packer. No doubt these margins vary somewhat with changing market conditions. A comparison of packers' quotations f.o.b. California and New York whole- sale quotations on 60/70 's during the crop years 1925 and 1926 shows the average and most frequent monthly difference to be 1% cents a pound. In comparing the price received by the grower with the price at which the packer sells packed prunes to the trade one must also consider that the packer's margin is increased by the gain in weight resulting from the moisture absorbed in processing, which varies somewhat with different sizes of prunes, but probably averages between 3.5 and 4.0 per cent according to different estimates. 52 See page 57 for the method of estimating the actual price per pound from the basis price. 56 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Supply-Price Relation Less Consistent Than Before the War. — The relationship between world production and the price of prunes has not been so consistent since the war as before. For several years after the war it was unusually difficult to judge at what prices different-sized prune crops would move into consumption and the trade was not well informed regarding Jugoslavian supplies. Sudden changes took place in the general price level and very abnormal economic conditions existed in our chief foreign markets which seriously affected the purchasing power of European countries, par- ticularly of those in Germany, ordinarily the largest importer of our prunes. The greatly increased output of fruits — fresh, canned, and dried — since the war has also added to the difficulty of properly pricing and marketing prunes. It is unfortunate for the industry that prices have not been better adjusted to world conditions of supply and demand. Since the war the opening price of prunes in a number of years was too high to move the large world supply, and consequently prices declined, caus- ing those in the trade who stocked up with prunes to lose money and discouraging them from handling the product and pushing it into con- sumption and also causing carryovers which tended to depress prices the following year. The net result has been that growers and most of the factors in the trade have made less money than they would have made had prices been such as to insure the trade reasonably profitable margins and to create a confident tone to the market, which would stimulate the pushing of prunes into consumption at a time of heavy world production and of keen competition from other fruits as well as of low consumer purchasing power in some of our chief foreign markets, such as Germany. Partly as a result of this unfortunate situation the buying policy of the entire prune-distributing trade has undergone decided changes in recent years. In 1926 Critchfield found that a general hand-to- mouth buying program prevailed. "The volume of purchases of prunes for future delivery by the jobbing and wholesale distributors is much less than it was in earlier periods. There has been a notice- able change in the number of speculative jobbers. Formerly specula- tive jobbers acted as a shock-absorbing or reservoir agency and carried the growers' crops until the wholesale and retail distributors were in need of supplies, Only a few such firms are in operation now. . . . Large stocks of prunes are no longer purchased and held. Immediate needs only are anticipated and met. Chain-store buyers purposely follow this policy; the 'cash and carry' wholesalers have adopted BUL. 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 57 it ; and many regular wholesalers stated that in general they also were forced to buy only for their immediate needs. ' ' 53 Methods of Quoting Prices to Growers. 54 — Formerly packers usually bought prunes from growers at a single ' basis ' price with a uniform differential per point which was applied to prunes of all sizes. The old single or fixed 'basis' price was for prunes averaging 80 to the pound. For prunes larger than 80 's a uniform additional premium of 1/20 of a cent a pound, the equivalent of a dollar a ton, was added to the basis price, for every 'point' that a given lot of prunes averaged larger than 80. The same amount was subtracted for every 'point' smaller than 80. For example, prunes averaging 81 to the pound being one 'point' smaller in size than 80 's would bring 1/20 of a cent a pound or $1 a ton less than the 'basis' price. Prunes averaging 35 to the pound, being 45 points larger in size than 80 's would bring 2% cents or $45 a ton more than the basis price. This system of payments is sometimes called the 'five-points basis' system because the uniform differential of one-twentieth (1/20) cents a pound as a decimal is five-hundredths (0.05) of a cent or 0.0005 of a dollar a pound. Special premiums for certain of the larger sizes that were particularly scarce in any one year were sometimes paid growers in addition to the price as calculated by the method described above. For example, 30/40 prunes frequently commanded a pre- mium of % to % of a cent a pound above a price calculated by the uniform 'five-point basis' system. Partly as a result of changing conditions of the supply of, and the demand for, different sizes of prunes (see pages 39-41) some sizes so frequently commanded an extra premium over the uniform differential of one dollar per ton per point in size that a 'varying-basis price' system has finally been rather generally adopted in the state. The essential difference between this system and the old system is that a different basis price is quoted for different sizes of prunes instead of a single basis price for all sizes. Under this system a difference of ten points in size, such as that between 70 's and 60 's, does not necessarily result in the same price differential as the ten-point difference between the size of 60 's and of 50 's, as was the case under the old system unless special premiums in addition to the regular dollar per size-point were definitely agreed upon. 53 Critchfield, B. H. Demand, marketing, and production of Oregon and Washington prunes. II. S. Dept. Agr. Dept. Circ. 416:28. 1927. 54 Discussion and illustrations of packers' methods of quoting prices to growers are given in: California State-Federal Joint Marketing Service. Dried- Prune Eeport 2:1-3. California Dept. Agriculture (mimeo.). August 15, 1928. See also Kieffer, D. L, Up and down from base 80. Pacific Eural Press 126:620-621. 1928. 58 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Given the basis price for any particular size of prunes, however, the method of calculating" the actual price per pound under the newer system is the same as under the old. One-twentieth of a cent per pound or one dollar a ton is added or subtracted from the basis price for every point that the given size of prunes differs from 80 's. Under the varying-basis price system if the basis price for 41/51 's is 5 cents, then a lot of prunes averaging' 45 per pound, or 35 size-points larger than 80 's, would bring 6% cents per pound — [5 cents + (35 X 0.05 cents)], or $135 per ton— [($0.05 X 2,000) + (35 X $1.00)]. On very large sizes and very small sizes a 'flat,' actual (not a 'basis') price is frequently quoted: so many cents per pound for any of the sizes within the particular size class quoted. For example, in the fall of 1928 prunes 24 or less to the pound were quoted to some growers at a 'flat' price of IOV2 cents a pound, 25/30 's at 10 cents, and 31/33 's at 8% cents. Sizes 34/101 's were quoted at varying basis prices but 102/121 's were quoted at a flat price of 2 cents and 122 or smaller at 1% cents a pound. To insure himself of fair treatment by buyers and better to under- stand the relation of prices and sizes of prunes, every grower should thoroughly master the intricacies of the cumbersome system by which dried prunes are bought and sold. Influence of Size on Price. — The price of any size of prunes is affected not only by changes in the total supply of prunes available at any particular time, but also by changes in the relative plentiful- ness or scarcity of that particular size. In a general way the available evidence indicates that a substantial increase from one year to the next in the proportion of prunes of any given size usually results in a noticeable decrease in the relative premium paid for that size. Con- versely, a marked decrease from one year to the next in the proportion of a particular size generally results in an increase in the relative premium paid for that size. In recent years this tendency for the relative price differential for a given size to fluctuate in the opposite direction from the proportion of the total supply which the size con- stitutes is most evident in the case of the larger sizes of prunes. Table 11 indicates that the relative premium paid for large prunes has tended to increase during the last decade or more, whereas the relative differential against small prunes has been increasing. In view of the fact that the proportion of large-sized prunes has shown a noticeable increase during this same period 55 it would seem that the 55 See discussion on page 39. Buu 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 59 demand for large prunes has been increasing at the expense of that for the small-sized prunes. Otherwise one would expect to find the price of large prunes declining relative to that of small prunes. This tendency serves to emphasize the importance of reducing the output of small and inferior prunes. 56 TABLE 11 Farm Price of Prunes by Sizes, Average 1917-1920 and 1922-1925 1917-1920 1922- 1925 Size Cents Per cent of Cents Per cent of per lb. average rjer lb. » average 20/30 16 5 185 If A 224 30/40 13.0 146 9.-1 164 40/50 11.5 129 6.9 125 50/60 9.9 110 6.1 110 60/70 9.0 101 5.4 97 70/80 7.8 87 5.1 93 80/90 6.8 76 4.3 77 90/100 6.1 68 2.9 52 100/120 4.7 53 1.7 32 120/up 4 45 14 26 Average . 8.9 100 5.5 100 Source of data: Returns to members of the California Prune and Apricot Growers Associa- tion for Sunsweet prunes. Compiled from the Sunsweet Standard. ss Some illustrations of how the size of prunes affects growers ' incomes and profits are contained in the following article: Anonymous. Profits from prunes. Sunsweet Standard 9(io>:6-8. March, 1926. The following quotations from the summary of a mimeographed report of the Farm Adviser of Napa County giving detailed average costs of producing prunes on about twenty prune orchards in that county strongly emphasize the necessity of producing a large tonnage of large-sized fruit in order to make profits. "Prunes smaller than 100 to the pound seldom, if ever, pay the cost of production The records of one of the growers in this study prove that irrigation, fertilization, and intelligent cultivation will take a non-profitable prune orchard and make it pay by increasing the size of fruit and improving the quality. ' ' (Anonymous. Napa reckons prune costs. Pac. Rur. Press 114:656. 1927.) The conclusions reached upon the basis of the limited data presented in the two articles referred to above are that the successful grower is successful because he raises large prunes of good quality and because he secures a large acre-yield at an economical expenditure of management, labor, and capital. Some facts on cost of production that throw some additional light on the relative profitable- ness of different sizes of prunes may be found in: Newman, Ralph. Tehama prune men confer. Pac. Rur. Press 110:674. 1925. 60 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION PROBLEMS OF ADJUSTMENTS? Needed Remedial Measures. — If the forecasted production of prunes actually matures and reaches the market during the next few years, prices will have to be low to induce consumers to use all the available supply, or else growers, selling agencies, and others finan- cially interested in the industry will have to unite in a determined and constructive remedial program. Such a program would involve measures (1) to reduce the acreage and commercial production of prunes, (2) to lower production costs, (3) to improve size and quality, (4) to eliminate small and inferior prunes from consumption as table fruit, (5) to reduce costs of marketing, (6) to improve and widen distribution, and (7) to stimulate foreign and domestic demand. The probability that market improvements alone will not prevent prune prices from averaging unprofitably low to an abnormally large proportion of California growers during the next few years suggests that the lower grades and smaller sizes of prunes should be eliminated from consumption for table purposes in so far as feasible. Moreover, more efficient production methods should be used wherever possible in order to cut costs per ton and, at the same time, means should be taken to improve the size and quality of the prunes produced — a combina- tion admittedly very difficult of attainment. Growers in localities not well adapted to producing high yields or a quality and size of sufficient superiority to offset low yields should carefully consider possible alternative or supplementary enterprises whereby they may increase their income by drawing a larger propor- tion of it from sources likely to be more remunerative than prunes. Apparently growers who are largely dependent upon prunes for their income and who cannot make a living from prune production at prices averaging as low as those of recent years, may be forced to discontinue farming for themselves unless they can quickly substitute crops capable of bringing them a living, or else supplement their farm income by wages earned elsewhere. The reduction in production and the rise in prices resulting from readjustments by individual growers along these lines would, of course, redound to the benefit of the industry as a whole. 57 Some of the chief economic difficulties with which California farmers are now confronted, and possible remedies and adjustments are discussed briefly in a circular by the staff of the College of Agriculture: The agricul- tural situation in California. California Agr. Ext. Ser. Cir. 18:20-30. 1928. Bui* 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 61 Limited Influence of Market Improvements on Prices. — Even though extraordinary improvements were to be made in marketing prunes during the next few years it is improbable that the net result would be sufficient to entirely overcome the depressing effect of heavy production upon prices. Marketing improvements would be worth working for, however, for they should result in the grower receiving higher prices than he would be able to get without them. The test of the value of efforts to improve distribution will be whether prices are better than they would have been had no such changes been made, and not on whether prices are actually higher during the period in which the improvements are in effect. In judging the success of the agencies which market their prunes during the next few years, growers should always use this measure, otherwise they are destined to feel that the marketing of their crop is unsatisfactory. Under competitive conditions the best marketing organization and salesmen in the world cannot force consumers to pay growers a profitable price for their crops when too much is produced. Glutted markets and ruinously low prices, due to increasing output much faster than demand, emphasize a fact often forgotten at planting time : namely, that many problems of marketing cannot be separated from problems of production. 58 In so far as possible, plans for expanding the market for a farm product should be made at the same time any extended movement to increase the output originates, and expansion of markets should be made to keep pace with increasing production. In order to success- fully establish a reasonably profitable and stable equilibrium between production and marketing or the supply of, and the demand for a farm product, growers must secure the intelligent and sympathetic cooperation of all agencies that are to any considerable extent financially dependent upon the commodity either directly or indirectly, such as financial, transportation, and marketing organizations. The peculiar nature of agricultural industries 59 unfortunately makes effec- tive action upon the part of growers alone extremely difficult. There- sa B. H. Hibbard believes that the major part of the ultimate solution of the marketing problem consists in adapting production to demand. "No farmer or group of farmers, " he states, "can hope to make over the demand for agricultural products, though in particular instances it may be influenced. The main task of the farmer in conquering the marketing difficulties is to get market information and act on the basis it affords. ,; (Hibbard, B. H. Market- ing agricultural products, p. 377. Appleton & Co., New York. 1921.) 59 Some of the more important characteristics of farming peculiar to agri- culture as an industry and their economic significance is briefly discussed in: Ely, R. T., and E. W. Morehouse. Elements of land economics, p. 98-109. Macmillan Co., New York. 1924. 62 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION fore, for the good of all, other agencies should lend foresighted and constructive aid that will help to prevent the difficulties that demand so much remedial assistance. Many agencies other than growers and many influences other than agricultural must share the responsibility for the overplanting of fruit which occurred in California after the war. Many of the financial difficulties which growers face are the result of conditions created directly or indirectly by the war. The sudden and great changes in the general level of prices during the last fifteen years (see pages 47^9) have been at the bottom of the financial difficulties of many growers. The high general price level during and right after the war made many believe that their net incomes were much larger than they actually were. When the bottom dropped out of the prices for agri- cultural staples, such as grain, right after the war, the prices of most fruits remained at relatively high and more profitable levels, encourag- ing a shift toward fruit planting in many sections of California. While fruit prices were high, much land was bought and sold for fruit growing at a very high valuation based on the assumption that high prices would rule when the newly planted orchards finally came into bearing. 60 When great declines in fruit prices finally came, as a result of the great increase in production coming from young bearing orchards planted in boom times, attempts were made by a number of agencies to hold the price of certain fruits too high. This resulted in moving them into the trade at declining prices, thus demoralizing the market by making their distribution unprofitable to the trade and by causing serious carryovers (see page 56). Danger of Betting Prices Too High. — Great care should be exer- cised during the next few years to sell prunes at a price low enough to move large crops into consumption readily before the following year's crop is ready for market. The experience with carryovers which the raisin and the canning-peach industries are having and that through which the prune industry has passed in some years since the war should convince prune growers that it is suicidal to hold prices high enough to cause substantial carryovers from one crop year to the next during a period in which average production is very large. In so After many years of observation of fruit growing in all sections of the United States, Chandler has concluded that "only intelligent and cautious study of the situation by buyers can reduce the number of serious losses by people going into the orchard business. " (Chandler, W. H. North American orchards, p. 501. Lea and Febiger, Philadelphia, 1928.) In this concluding discussion in Chapter 24 he summarizes the problems which prospective orchardists should consider in going into the business of fruit growing. BUL.462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 63 recent years fluctuations in the size of California prune crops have not been very large, and California production has largely dominated fluctuations in world output. The possibility of a failure of the Cali- fornia prune crop serious enough to justify taking the chance of hold- ing any considerable quantity of prunes over from one year to the next is rather remote. As a general rule the price of prunes should be kept at such a level that substantially all of each crop moves into con- sumption during its own crop year or is completely removed in some way or other from being carried over to depress prices in the following crop year. Unless growers and selling agencies unite in a determined, con- structive program which results in lowering of market costs and in increasing the demand for prunes, there is little likelihood of getting higher prices for large crops of prunes than those that have prevailed in recent years for world crops of similar size. If prunes are not intelligently and energetically pushed into consumption and the market greatly broadened, growers, as a group, may expect a con- tinuation of low prices on an average, unless production is curtailed. Any attempt to keep part of the prune crop from being harvested or marketed, however, will encounter the same kind of difficulties which the canning-peach and the raisin growers of the state have experienced. History records few, if any, economically successful attempts to dis- pose of large surpluses of semi-perishable farm products like dried fruits, whose cyclical period of over-production usually lasts several years because of the peculiar difficulty of quickly reducing acreage. APPENDIX OF TABLES 66 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION pq o Ph S 9 PL, d HNNHOIIM' oot-esi^oeqoooio^t^iooo-^ooL, .. 9l0>N0)00t0i0O^t«OO"O(0*NMc<:N(»M' OOcoOoooocoC- {2H2c^r^iMCMCM^^^ t- U5 IM ■* M -I CO ■ © Tj< T* CO OS Tf OS O < P_| d O O lO M ,-h >C0N(O(NNC0NC0>nONe0OSNHffl00(e00CO(N00 >»0 OOC=> O O I .OTfOOli IHcijTftoaiNOlrHOINlOl >eoco03-«*ooot-^t^p2< » N N 00 OO t> ■* rH , Olrt CO o>oo ^h ^h OOrtCOHNiOUJ^OOOO^tDOOMte- 0)C0O*W00c0Oi01^Ot)iO<0 I CM lO £0 >0>U»CMrHCM-*tlOCO lOO^iflHON . iNHT)(HCe!DlOOOOOOlOOt" t-toiOMTfioeftt-io-^afoKTttr-iNTHOHiocr.iON lOO!rHTji00OO00lO-t »0>MlON(DOOWtfiNOOl0 3 o go ^ oo t^ cm o o 'OOCO-<*lCOCOCOCM<— I JJOH OiNOOOOlfflMCOl OoTlOHHNt-t-Ttll ' CI ■* !D 00 1C t(( IN N coooNtoNa^a lOOMNCDtDlCON t- CM OS CO O ™ CM i-H ™ CQ HrtOjOrt 06lftMtDO!MtOOONONOOO0 CM CM CM CM ~-H qooi 3io5T)iHomoooooooiKio(0»iNHO>niooo^ooooooo 0[;*t01!OOOiO»«OOOINOrtieoOKOncDON(" "" mcoo^oioOrtoocut r-l t-H NoOt^lOrH "* I 321 0, Si NOOO)OOC "°00(NiONN' 00 »-H eo MH^OOOlOOOhOOO cooiesooNoiowooo. M9IMfflC0(000tDNWOOO00(0NMON(0 oe»»<»»iooo(Mior^o-^ooooooo> lotewoaofooopwipiooogo' " CDCKNiH iO t^^ oo- o> 00 ' ftifl^CJOOiflOO' Tf O O tOlOaMCDNtOcOOOfflCO* oe-to>ooo»moocoooioiHv-ooe- icooNoaoooNNOOPitocoof 'O>O .5 w *■*> -. *-< ft o o ft f" §■1 © o3 -(J » 2 ft rt O fl O aj O -H OlONM'OCO'HO-.OOt-CBOOffiOOMOOMt^lO oiHi-I^ HC ;dooO c >dddoo c >ooo t-CONCl(CfflNaiflOOOCOCOOlNN'*'OQO 80oo0o0°0rt0ON0 rl HOO tOtOt^OOCOCOCNl-^OtO'MOOCOt— O0i-J»O^Ht-~oot-^»<-Hco'-«e^«^ f0 o es 'cMCM*^*^cocM'-iO'-< e>, eMeN)co Cie^eScMCM* > 'cN^H' H, -'cNl^H-HCM-He s '-HCN(M lOM^csiooNOooeoieiooooocDxteinoocs ^Hrl rtN H (NH HH WOOMO N Nm o MO*rt«3O>HN00OO!0TtifflO:Nffl»' SSS^ 00 S^-' 212'* ;oOMc0(: ^2 ! ='di e ^ e ^ eN *CM>-He^CNlOMOo» MHH rt(N H rHrH lOM 1 r5 Ncc c < | C «3«0 C 50OC» WOOOlOONCONtf e^eocOjvjc^cOcv^co^^^CMcoco^HCM e>«cNii^cNicot^eo-Hino2 iftOi— icvicqcM-^eoi !>ClTtlTtlO3-^C0CO^^O3 WNt-oo^Mcoco^w^iococoNMorqoo ■«* ion hcoo NOOIMCONrtMNNO coesev» COCN ,e^rt C y|"* w cocM^^coco lrt "?iti»-i M«>e« c- in t~- io ■ ^■"((OOOINHNOOH l £jioi---Hco^H c ' s c\iTf I ' ^ oo oo oo if* d i-h < OMtflOOOOOOOM'i'MniNINNlONH I J* CO CO ^ 03 w J™ j O500t^CN)C0CN'-C^P«cM»0 e ^CMC0 e> " »0O!NCDTtl'~t^t^00 ■^COCOOIMWO'OC^ H!OtOO» H HNH **©©OCOC-;OCO**00-05i I CO "» lO IC ' 1 o •>*< cm o ■<*< ° o >-i )H^00(C00ONrtrtmNO«3 iWiO^OOoohonOoO »O0000CO<0!OtD^C0»rH00®0000"OC<3f-l oooooo ooo t °coco2 e ~ 05U ' , * < « s ' 05 I2"' t ~- c ' : > «M»C»COM00ONONOClNN«lM 0>0»O O ot~t-000>00dc0lC'-H00^C0l^-00 8iteOM(Ofl>C»Xt"rtOOOtOC<3Tt C»N < *C0lc32NC»t0^rt0>CiOtO 5 *v O-a £0 t- ei g °58§§eo*^33 o aS o g 3.8 .S "5> a* 'gSifSSiatl o °2 2 5 9 B3 co o3 O o.tf 3" ;5 C ' in | « -2 3 a g i 5 2 « 2 v~ i b ^ 3 O qj O £ 3-8.5 68 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 14 United States Exports of Prunes by Countries, 1897-1927 Year begin- ning July 1 Total Ger- many British Isles Canada France Nether- lands Bel- gium Scandi- naviat New- Zealand Mexico All others Millions of pounds, i.e., 000,000 omitted 1897 15.9 5.7 2.2 1.2 3.8 1.6 1.2 0.1 * * 0.1 1898 5.6 25.9 11 8.5 0.8 4.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 3.6 0.2 4.7 5 1.8 I I 0.4 1899 0.6 4 1900 10.0 3.1 11 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.4 * * 0.8 1901 23.4 7.5 3.6 3.4 1.0 4 2 2.2 0.7 * * 0.8 1902 66.4 18.7 15 5.0 16.1 3.9 4.8 1.7 * * 1.2 1903 73 1 20.4 9.1 4.3 22.8 8.1 5.2 1.7 * 0.2 1.3 1904 55 20.9 11.1 5.2 4 9.8 15 3.7 * 0.6 1.8 1905 24.9 6.2 6.4 5.6 0.2 2.3 1.5 0.9 * 0.1 1.7 1906 44.4 6.9 11.9 10.4 0.7 6.6 2.9 2.1 6 0.2 2.1 1907 28.1 8.6 3.8 6.7 1 2.8 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 1.5 1908 22.6 89.0 6.9 36.6 1.8 12 4 8.3 10.6 1.9 8.5 0.8 7.3 0.8 4.7 0.6 1.0 0.2 3 1.3 1909 5.3 2 3 1910 51 12.6 5.6 8 8 14 .2 2 4 3.0 16 0.8 0.2 1.8 1911 74.3 31.4 6.6 13.5 6.2 2.3 6.8 3.1 1.0 0.2 3.2 1912 118.0 49.1 8.5 11.0 12.0 16.6 6 2 8.4 0.8 0.4 5.0 1913 69.8 17.4 11 2 12.8 13.5 6.4 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 3.2 1914 43.5 57.4 0.0 10 4 15 9.3 11 9 1.1 4.9 0.6 2.5 18.3 17.9 0.9 1.0 2.9 1915 0.1 4 1 1916 59.6 32.9 59.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 4.8 18 8 11.1 18.0 7.9 23.9 2 5 8.9 0.3 7.5 2 0.6f 0.7 6 4.7 1917 7.4 1918 0.2 2.9 1919J 1920J 114 1 o.o 35 6 16.8 18.1 2.2 2 1 24.4 14.9 57.5 16.7 15 5 11.3 1.7 2 5 1.6 4 6 0.4 0.9 2.3 1921J 109.4 16.7 29.6 14 .3 25 1 4.4 3.9 10.2 1.2 0.7 3.3 1922 79.2 0.3 18.9 14 26.6 1.8 2.5 7.6 1.5 1.0 5.0 1923 136.4 51.1 30 2 15 2 3.7 12 3 5 11.2 1.4 0.8 7.3 1924 171.8 55 31.6 14.8 20.2 15.6 4.8 15.6 1.6 0.9 11.7 1925 151 4 18.9 37.1 17.7 39.1 8.9 4.7 9.2 1.8 1.2 12.8 1926 175 5 38.6 40.2 20.5 27.2 10.2 6 14 6 1.9 0.9 15.4 1927 260.6 79.7 45.6 23.3 27.4 23.1 9.5 17.0 1.3 1.5 32.2 Aver- ages 1899-03 39.8 11.6 6.7 3.2 8.7 4.6 2.9 1.0 * * 0.9 1904-08 35.0 9.9 7 7.2 3 4.6 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.3 1.7 1909-13 80.4 28.4 8.9 13.3 10 2 7.2 5.0 4.1 0.9 0.2 3.1 1923-27 179.1 48.7 36.9 18.3 23.5 13.9 5.7 13.5 1.6 11 15.9 Percent age of U nited St£ ites total exports 1899-03 100 29 17 8 22 12 . 7 3 * * 2 1903-03 100 28 20 21 1 13 5 5 1 1 5 1909-13 100 35 11 16 13 9 6 5 1 - 4 1923-27 100 27 21 10 13 8 3 8 1 1 9 ( ) A dash indicates that quantity was so small that the Department of Commerce did not enumerate it separately but included it in export to "all other countries." (Footnote continued on next page) BUK 462] PRUNE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION 69 * An asterisk indicates that the quantity exported was not reported for the individual country and either amounted to nothing or was inconsequential. f Scandanavia, as given, includes Noway, Sweden, and Denmark. Exports to Sweden were so small in 1918 that they were not given separately. Those to Norway and Denmark were 607,871 pounds. t Right after the war actual net exports are not known. The export figures for 1919-1920 are too large as in several known instances large quantities of fruit which had been exported from the United States, especially during 1920, were returned and resold in our domestic market. Source of data: Compiled from U. S. Dept. Commerce, Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States, for the years 1897-1917; and from the June issues of the United States Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce, for the years 1918 to date. STATION PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION BULLETINS No. 253. 262. 263. 268. 277. 278. 279. 283. 304. 310. 313. 324. 328. 331. 335. 340. 343. 344. 347. 348. 349. 350. 353. 354. 357. 358. 361. 362. 363, 364, 366, 367, 368 369 370 371 373 374 375 377, 380, 382, 385 386 387 388 Irrigation and Soil Conditions in the Sierra Nevada Foothills, California. Citrus Diseases of Florida and Cuba Compared with those of California. Size Grades for Ripe Olives. Growing and Grafting Olive Seedlings. Sudan Grass. Grain Sorghums. Irrigation of Rice in California. The Olive Insects of California. A Study of the Effects of Freezes on Citrus in California. Plum Pollination. Pruning Young Deciduous Fruit Trees. Storage of Perishable Fruits at Freez- ing Temperatures. Prune Growing in California. Phylloxera-resistant Stocks. Cocoanut Meal as a Feed for Dairy Cows and Other Livestock. Control of the Pocket Gopher in California. Cheese Pests and Their Control. Cold Storage as an Aid to the Mar- keting of Plums, a Progress Report. The Control of Red Spiders in Decid- uous Orchards. Pruning Young Olive Trees. A Study of Sidedraft and Tractor Hitches. Agriculture in Cut-Over Redwood Lands. Bovine Infectious Abortion, and As- sociated Diseases of Cattle and New- born Calves. Results of Rice Experiments in 1922. A Self-Mixing Dusting Machine for Applying Dry Insecticides and Fun- gicides. Black Measles, Water Berries, and Related Vine Troubles. Preliminary Yield Tables for Second- Growth Redwood. Dust and the Tractor Engine. The Pruning of Citrus Trees in Cali- fornia. Fungicidal Dusts for the Control of Bunt. Turkish Tobacco Culture, Curing, and Marketing. Methods of Harvesting and Irrigation in Relation to Moldy Walnuts. Bacterial Decomposition of Olives During Pickling. Comparison of Woods for Butter Boxes. Factors Influencing the Development of Internal Browning of the Yellow Newton Apple. The Relative Cost of Yarding Small and Large Timber. Pear Pollination. A Survey of Orchard Practices in the Citrus Industry of Southern California. Results of Rice Experiments at Cor- tena, 1923, and Progress in Experi- ments in Water Grass Control at the Biggs Rice Field Station, 1922-23. The Cold Storage of Pears. Growth of Eucalyptus in Galifornia Plantations. Pumping for Draininge in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Pollination of the Sweet Cherry. Pruning Bearing Deciduous Fruit Trees. Fig Smut. The Principles and Practice of Sun- Drying Fruit. No. 389. 390. 391. 392. 393. 394. 395. 396. 397. 398. 400. 402. 404. 405. 406. 407. 408, 409. 410. 411. 412. 414. 415. 416. 417. 418. 419. 420. 421. 422. 423. 424. 425, 426, 427, 428, 429. 430, 431, 432 433, 434 435 Berseem or Egyptian Clover. Harvesting and Packing Grapes in California. Machines for Coating Seed Wheat with Copper Carbonate Dust. Fruit Juice Concentrates. Crop Sequences at Davis. I. Cereal Hay Production in Cali- fornia. II. Feeding Trials with Cereal Hays. Bark Diseases of Citrus Trees in Cali- fornia. The Mat Bean, Phaseolus Aconitifo- lius. Manufacture of Roquefort Type Cheese from Goat's Milk. Orchard Heating in California. The Utilization of Surplus Plums. The Codling Moth in Walnuts. The Dehydration of Prunes. Citrus Culture in Central California. Stationary Spray Plants in California. Yield, Stand, and Volume Tables for White Fir in the California Pine Region. Alternaria Rot of Lemons. The Digestibility of Certain Fruit By- products as Determined for Rumi- nants. Part I. Dried Orange Pulp and Raisin Pulp. Factors Influencing the Quality of Fresh Asparagus after it is Har- vested. Paradichlorobenzene as a Soil Fumi- gant. A Study of the Relative Value of Cer- tain Root Crops and Salmon Oil as Sources of Vitamin A for Poultry. Planting and Thinning Distances for Deciduous Fruit Trees. The Tractor on California Farms. Culture of the Oriental Persimmon in California. Poultry Feeding: Principles and Prac- tice. A Study of Various Rations for Fin- ishing Range Calves as Baby Beeves. Economic Aspects of the Cantaloupe Industry. Rice and Rice By-Products as Feeds for Fattening Swine. Beef Cattle Feeding Trials, 1921-24. Cost of Producing Almonds in Cali- fornia: a Progress Report. Apricots (Series on California Crops and Prices). The Relation of Rate of Maturity to Egg Production. Apple Growing in California. Apple Pollination Studies in Cali- fornia. The Value of Orange Pulp for Milk Production. The Relation of Maturity of Cali- fornia Plums to Shipping and Dessert Quality. Economic Status of the Grape Industry. Range Grasses of California. Raisin By-Products and Bean Screen- ings as Feeds for Fattening Lambs. Some Economic Problems Involved il. the Pooling of Fruit. Power Requirements of Electrically Driven Manufacturing Equipment. Investigations on the Use of Fruits in Ice Cream and Ices. The Problem of Securing Closer Relationship Between Agricultural Development and Irrigation Con- struction. bulletins- No. 436. I. The Kadota Fig. II. Kadota Fig Products. 437. Economic Aspects of the Dairy In- dustry. 438. Grafting Affinities with Special Refer- ence to Plums. 439. The Digestibility of Certain Fruit By- products as Determined for Rumi- nants. Part II. Dried Pineapple Pulp, Dried Lemon Pulp, and Dried Olive Pulp. 440. The Feeding Value of Raisins and Dairy By-Products for Growing and Fattening Swine. 441. The Electric Brooder. 442. Laboratory Tests of Orchard Heaters. 443. Standardization and Improvement of California Butter. 444. Series on California Crops and Prices: Beans. (Continued) No. 445. Economic Aspects of the Apple In- dustry. 446. The Asparagus Industry in California. 447. The Method of Determining the Clean Weights of Individual Fleeces of Wool. 448. Farmers' Purchase Agreement for Deep Well Pumps. 449. Economic Aspects of the Watermelon Industry. 450. Irrigation Investigations with Field Crops at Davis, and at Delhi, Cali- fornia. 451. Studies Preliminary to the Establish- ment of a Series of Fertilizer Trials in a Bearing Citrus Grove. 452. Economic Aspects of the Pear In- dustry. CIRCULARS No. No. 87. Alfalfa. 265. 117. The selection and Cost of a Small 266. Pumping Plant. 127. House Fumigation. 267. 129. The control of Citrus Insects. 136. Melilotus Indica as a Green-Manure 269. Crop for California. 270. 144. Oidium or Powdery Mildew of the 273. Vine. 276. 157. Control of Pear Scab. 277. 164. Small Fruit Culture in California. 166. The County Farm Bureau. 278. 178. The Packing of Apples in California. 202. County Organization for Rural Fire 279. Control. 203. Peat as a Manure Substitute. 281. 209. The Function of the Farm Bureau. 212. Salvaging Rain-Damaged Prunes. 215. Feeding Dairy Cows in California. 282. 230. Testing Milk, Cream, and Skim Milk for Butterfat. 284. 231. The Home Vineyard. 286. 232. Harvesting and Handling California 287. Cherries for Eastern Shipment. 288. 234. Winter Injury to Young Walnut 289. Trees During 1921-1922. 290. 238. The Apricot in California. 292. 239. Harvesting and Handling Apricots 293. and Plums for Eastern Shipment. 294. 240. Harvesting and Handling California 296. Pears for Eastern Shipment. 241. Harvesting and Handling California 298. Peaches for Eastern Shipment. 243. Marmalade Juice and Jelly Juice 300. from Citrus Fruits. 301. 244. Central Wire Bracing for Fruit Trees. 302. 245. Vine Pruning Systems. 304. 248. Some Common Errors in Vine Prun- 305. ing and Their Remedies. 307. 249. Replacing Missing Vines. 308. 250. Measurement of Irrigation Water on 309. the Farm. 310. 252. Support for Vines. 253. Vineyard Plans. 311. 255. Leguminous Plants as Organic Fer- 312. tilizers in California Agriculture. 257. The Small-Seeded Horse Bean (Vicia faba var. minor). 258. Thinning Deciduous Fruits. 259. Pear By-Products. 261. Sewing Grain Sacks. Plant Disease and Pest Control. Analyzing the Citrus Orchard by Means of Simple Tree Records. The Tendency of Tractors to Rise in Front; Causes and Remedies. An Orchard Brush Burner. A Farm Septic Tank. Saving the Gophered Citrus Tree. Home Canning. Head, Cane and Cordon Pruning of Vines. Olive Pickling in Mediterranean Countries. The Preparation and Refining of Olive Oil in Southern Europe. The Results of a Survey to Deter- mine the Cost of Producing Beef in California. Prevention of Insect Attack on Stored Grain. The Almond in California. Milk Houses for California Dairies. Potato Production in California. Phylloxera Resistant Vineyards. Oak Fungus in Orchard Trees. The Tangier Pea. Alkali Soils. The Basis of Grape Standardization. Propagation of Deciduous Fruits. Control of the California Ground Squirrel. Possibilities and Limitations of Coop- erative Marketing. Coccidiosis of Chickens. Buckeye Poisoning of the Honey Bee. The Sugar Beet in California. Drainage on the Farm. Liming the Soil. American Foulbrood and Its Control. Cantaloupe Production in California. Fruit Tree and Orchard Judging. The Operation of the Bacteriological Laboratory for Dairy Plants. The Improvement of Quality in Figs. Principles Governing the Choice, Op- eration and Care of Small Irrigation Pumping Plants. The publications listed above may be had by addressing College of Agriculture, University of California, Berkeley ». California. I7m-12,'28