AUFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION IRCULAR 374 DECEMBER, 1947 CO UJ CO < o u. o CO a z < CO Z> o X CO H Z UJ X CO 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 • 200 EGGS AND CHICKENS SITUATION IN CALIFORNIA, 1947 EDWIN C. VOORHIES THE COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY HERE ARE THE FACTS . . . California's egg production has not kept pace with its growing population. At one time, the state shipped eggs out. Now, it cannot supply its own needs. The poultry industry must either expand, or continue to import large amounts of eggs from other states. Our chief rival is the Mississippi Valley. California cannot, at present, compete with that area in quantity, but it can more than compete in the quality of eggs sold in the state's markets. During the war, people ate more eggs. They have continued to do so since because eggs have been available, the price has been reasonable as compared with that of meat, and wartime emphasis on eggs as a protective food has carried over. This high con- sumption can continue if producers insure egg quality. Egg exports increased during the war, but they are not likely to be high from now on. Europe (the chief foreign market) does not have the dollars nor the goods to exchange for eggs. Most of California's egg and chicken production is on specialized farms. This is possible because baby chicks are available from commercial hatcheries for foundation and replacement purposes. California's chicken-meat production has usually been a side-line to raising flock replacements. However, there are now a number of commercial broiler enterprises in the state, and that number is increasing. Feed supplies have been and still are scarce. We cannot tell what the 1948 harvest will be. Eventually, however, feed should become more plentiful. HERE IS THE OUTLOOK . . . There is, apparently, general agreement that consumer buying power— the main influence on prices— will decline somewhat in the next two or three years. This decline will be felt in the poultry industry as in other enterprises. It should be remembered, however, that the egg and poultry business has one important advantage— as an industry, it can adjust more quickly to changing economic conditions than can almost any other branch of agricultural output. Many changes have already taken place in the California chicken and egg industry in the past 20 years. By explaining the importance of those changes, this circular seeks to act as a guide for the poultryman in the postwar period. Predictions for the imme- diate future, although desirable, cannot be accurately made. It is assumed, however, that poultrymen now in business are more concerned with trends over the next few years, rather than the next few months. EGGS AND CHICKENS SITUATION IN CALIFORNIA, 1947 1 EDWIN C. VOORHIES 2 EGG PRODUCTION California's egg supply lags behind its population growth. Either the poultry industry must expand or the state must increase its egg imports. The main product of the California poul- try farm is eggs. In the years 1925-1930, the state's production rose from an esti- mated 1452 million eggs to an estimated 2242 million. In comparison with its pop- ulation growth, however, California's egg production actually showed a downward trend from 1925 through 1947 in spite of a rise during the early period. The state's per-capita egg production rose from 313 in 1925 to 393 in 1930. After that date, there was a more or less steady decline to about 250 in 1946. From 1925 to 1947, the other western states presented a pattern similar to that of California— a slight increase in the early period, followed by a decline. In per-capita production, the western states increased from 378 in 1925 to 451 in 1930. Until 1940, per-capita produc- tion in all western states (including Cali- fornia) was considerably higher than that for the United States, but since 1941, it has been less than that for the country as a whole. Total farm egg production in the I nited States did not change much from 1925 to 1940. With the outbreak of war, 1 The turkey situation will be discussed in a -pparate circular. _ 2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agri- cultural Economist in the Experiment Station and on the Giannini Foundation. however, it increased rapidly, especially in the Mississippi Valley and on the At- lantic coast (see table 1). For a decade after the late 1920's, United States per-capita production de- clined. Shortly before World War II, it rose again slightly, but it did not exceed the 1935-1939 period until 1942. By 1945, per-capita production had reached 395— almost the same as California's in 1930 (see table 2, p. 5). These data emphasize the growing defi- cit position of California. If the state's population is to reach twelve million by 1960, there will be an annual increase of 200,000 persons for the next twelve years. If the state is to supply its growing home markets with quality eggs, the poultry in- dustry will have to expand or the state will have to draw an increasingly large part of the necessary supplies from else- where. Egg Production per Hen California and the Pacific coast states have, in the past, had at least two distinct advantages over many other areas with regard to egg production. Specialization, and good care and management, have made for a high egg production per hen and have resulted in a larger proportion of the year's lay occurring from October to January. One of the most significant factors about egg production over the country in the past two decades has been the steadily increasing rate of lay per hen and pullet. As a result, a smaller hen and pullet. popu- [3] Table 1 FARM EGG PRODUCTION, CALIFORNIA AND THE UNITED STATES Average annual production Period California United States Western states Mississippi Valley states Atlantic coast states billions of eggs Averages : 1925-1929 1.81 37.49 4.35 25.14 8.00 1930-1934 1.97 36.77 4.65 24.15 7.96 1935-1939 1.85 36.38 4.31 23.33 7.78 1940-1944 2.05 48.65 4.98 32.20 11.47 Annual : 1945 2.30 2.35 55.20 55.61 5.34 5.33 37.55 37.10 12 97 1946 13.19 Relative changes 1925-1929 = 100 Averages : 1925-1929 100 100 100 100 100 1930-1934 109 98 107 96 99 1935-1939 102 97 99 93 97 1940-1944 114 130 114 128 143 Annual : 1945 127 147 123 149 162 1946 132 148 123 148 165 lation produces the same amount of eggs as a larger one did previously. Egg pro- duction per layer in California has in- creased more slowly in these two decades than it has in the nation as a whole. Cali- fornia's average annual egg production per layer (on hand throughout the year) was estimated at 141 for the 1925-1929 period, as compared with 118 in the United States. In the 1940-1944 period, the California average increased by about 12 per cent, while that for the nation in- creased by over 20 per cent. Estimates placed egg production per hen and pullet in the United States, in 1945, 50 per cent higher than in 1909. The especially rapid increase since 1934 has placed several states ahead of Cali- fornia, notably those in the North Atlantic section. From the standpoint of the Cali- fornia producer, the most significant in- creases in the annual rate of lay from 1925 through 1946 have occurred in the north- ern half of the Mississippi Valley. This upward movement has been due to at least four factors : ( 1 ) the shift from farm hatching to commercial hatching; (2) im- proved efficiency in breeding; (3) an in- crease in the ratio of pullets to hens; and (4) better feed and feeding practices. Further increases in the rate of lay are possible, perhaps at a slower rate, since all of these factors may operate during the next few years with the exception of (1) . [4] Over the past few years, a relatively larger proportion of the annual produc- tion has occurred in the six months be- ginning in September. The change has been more pronounced in the states east of the Pacific coast. A relative leveling out of production has occurred, and seasonal price variation is far less pronounced. An- other effect has been a relatively smaller storage pack. Egg Production per Farm California egg production per farm in 1939 was almost 1,900 dozen annually— between three and four times that for the United States (estimated at 490 dozen). In 1944, the 79,731 California egg pro- ducers reported an average of 1,984 dozen eggs produced annually per farm. During the war years, a most significant change came about in the per-farm an- nual production which, by 1944, averaged 933 dozen for the United States as a whole (fig. 1, p. 7). This indicates that a trend toward more concentrated pro- duction has taken place, and probably ac- counts for some of the improvements which have come about in feeding, care, and management. CHICKEN PRODUCTION Per-capita chicken production, already down, may continue to drop, since fewer chickens now produce more eggs. Chickens Slaughtered For a clear understanding of the changes in the production of chicken meat, it is desirable to divide the produc- tion into two sections: (1) chickens con- sumed on and sold from farms; and (2) chickens produced as commercial broil- ers. The dividing line between the two is not always distinct, especially in Cali- fornia. This section discusses the farm production of chickens for meat. Comparison of chickens raised for meat in California with those in other sections of the United States (fig. 2, p. 8) is com- plicated by the type of bird produced. In California, the Leghorn breed has pro- duced most of the eggs. One result is a lighter bird for market— and a consumer demand for the heavier, colored birds. From 1940 to 1944, the average annual number of chickens consumed on and sold from California farms was about 15 per cent greater than the number reported for 1925-1929. A large part of the increase Table 2 PER-CAPITA EGG PRODUCTION, CALIFORNIA AND THE UNITED STATES Average annual per-capita production Relative changes 1925-1929 = 100 Period California United States Excess, United States over California California United States number Averages : 1925-1929 355 317 • -38 100 100 1930-1934 335 295 -40 94 93 1935-1939 285 282 -3 80 89 1940-1944 262 361 99 74 114 Annual : 1945 261 400 139 74 126 1946 249 394 145 70 124 [5] Table 3 AVERAGE ANNUAL CHICKEN SLAUGHTER (Consumed on and Sold from Farms) CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES, AND SUBDIVISIONS Average annual slaughter Period California United States Western states Mississippi Valley states millions of chickens Averages : 1925-1929 20.4 656.6 55.0 460.7 1930-1934 20.7 675.0 55.2 471.9 1935-1940 18.3 587.4 46.2 400.1 1940-1944 23.4 706.4 59.6 479.1 Annual : 1945 27.8 809.7 70.2 547.1 1946 22.9 702.1 56.1 481.8 Relative changes 1925-1929 = 100 Averages : 1925-1929 100 102 90 115 136 112 100 103 89 108 123 107 100 100 84 108 128 102 100 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 Annual : 1945 102 87 104 119 1946 105 was in light birds, as indicated in data for 1941, 1942, 1944, and 1945. In each of those years, the proportion of light chickens was above 73 per cent of total farm production. The trend in the western states has been somewhat similar to that of California, but the actual increase has been less. The proportion of heavier birds is greater in the other western states than in California, but it is considerably less than in the United States as a whole. Chicken production on farms in the United States has not increased greatly since 1925, with certain exceptions (fig. 4, p. 12). Because of the drought in the Mississippi Valley, an appreciable drop occurred in the 1935-1939 period. While the increase in slaughter from that period was considerable, the average annual slaughter was only 8 per cent greater than it had been in 1925-1929. Available data for the past few years indicate that ap- proximately 50 per cent of the total young birds produced on farms are sold. 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LU o z < X o LU > I- < _J LU a: *'# festern States - (O ( il ; s 'Jf - v\ 3 \ \^ - O *c w o a o - < r lO a> o CD IO ro 0> O ro en O IO o o ro — O 0> O (O CM o o* SN3XDIHD dO SNOmiW 1N30 d3d The production of chickens on farms in relation to the population of the state and nation is even more significant than actual output data. In California, per-capita farm chicken output dropped from 4 in 1925-1929 to about 3 in 1940-1944. In the western states, the drop was from 5 to 3.9 between the same periods. In the entire United States, where the population gains were slower, the drop between the two periods was from about 5.6 to 5.0. The weights of chickens sold from farms have not been uniform over the years. Available data point to an increase in the weight of chickens sold on Cali- fornia farms from 2.6 pounds in 1930- 1934 to 3.1 in 1940-1944. Comparable data for the United States are 3.8 and 4.2 pounds, respectively. Variations among weights of chickens sold in different sections of the country are rather wide. California produces a lighter-weight farm chicken than does any other state, largely because of the preva- lence of the White Leghorn breed. The differences in breed, weight, and maturity account for a considerable amount of the intrastate trade in chickens. In the joint- product poultry enterprise, emphasis has been on egg production. Improved meth- ods have made it possible to produce more eggs from fewer chickens. It seems logical, therefore, to expect an even smaller per- capita supply of chickens on farms in both California and the United States as a whole. BROILERS Commercial broiler production is a highly specialized industry. Cali- fornia produces about 5 per cent of the country's present supply. With the decline of per-capita produc- tion of farm chickens has come an in- crease in the production of commercial broilers— in "factories" operating enter- prises separate and distinct from those on farms (see table 4). In 1934, it was esti- mated that 34 million commercial broilers were produced in the United States; in 1945, all previous production records were shattered with over 345 million re- ported; in 1946, production dropped to 247 million. In production per capita, this amounted to a dressed weight of ap- proximately 0.6 pounds in 1934 and close to 6.0 pounds in 1945. In 1934, not over 4 per cent of total chicken production in Table 4 COMMERCIAL BROILER PRODUCTION, CALIFORNIA AND THE UNITED STATES • California United States Year Number Dressed weight Per cent of total chicken production Number Dressed weight Per cent of total chicken production 1934 millions 1.0 3.8 6.0 11.5 14.7 10.0 million pounds 15.8 27.3 40.2 29.1 22 24 32 29 millions 34 68 143 285 346 274 million pounds 85 172 364 733 919 725 4 1937 8 1940 14 1943 18 1945 22 1946 20 [9] FIGURE 3 EGG PRODUCTION IN CALIFORNIA 1944 AND RELATIVE CHANGE 1929-1944 NORTH COAST = 10 MILLION DOZENS OF 10 EGGS PRODUCED IN 1944 LEGEND fff FF Ff l LARGE DECLINE SMALL DECLINE NO CHANGE MODERATE INCREASE GREAT INCREASE 1944 AS PERCENT OF 1929 LESS THAN 70 - 90 91 - 110 I 1 1 - 140 MORE THAN 140 the United States was in the form of broil- ers from "commercial plants"; by 1945, the percentage was 22.0. Production data for California are not comparable in all particulars with those for other areas. The estimates of commer- cial broiler production for the state in- clude only young chickens of the heavy- or [10] crossbreeds, 2 to 4 pounds in weight, which are raised for meat. These birds include pullets as well as cockerels. Cali- fornia poultrymen have raised many light- breed cockerel chicks and have sold these as broilers, but they are included under the chickens produced on the state's farms, not listed separately as broilers. Estimates of the number of these light- breed meat birds have been made for the following years: 1944, 5,350,000; 1945, 7,579,000; 1946, 5,385,000. The inclusion of these birds under "chickens consumed on and sold from farms" is one of the reasons for the low average weight of California farm chickens. Commercial broiler production is a highly specialized "manufacturing" en- terprise depending largely on purchased feed supplies and requiring a fairly large volume of labor. Such enterprises are con- ducted fairly close to places where chicks especially adapted to this process are available. Allied enterprises, such as dressing plants and feed-mixing stations, must be close at hand. In California, So- noma County leads in broiler production. There are also numerous broiler pro- ducers in Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Alameda counties. In the United States, the commercial broiler industry is concentrated. Dela- ware, Maryland, and Virginia account for over 40 per cent of the nation's produc- tion. Georgia follows, with 7 to 10 per cent; California, North Carolina, and Ar- kansas account for about 5 per cent each. Total Production of Chickens Farm chicken production and commer- cial broiler production must be taken into account when calculations are made on total chicken production. In addition, there is a sizable chicken production in cities, towns, and suburban areas which may amount to as much as 10 per cent of the farm output. The following average per-capita out- puts (dressed weight) for the United States indicate a downward trend from 1925-1929 to 1935-1939. Period Pounds per capita Period Pounds per capita Period Pounds per capita Averages : 1925-1929 1930-1934 20.1 19.9 Averages : 1935-1939 . 1940-1944. . . 17.9 24.6 Annual : 1945 1946 29.8 25.3 From 1938, when only 16.9 pounds of chicken per capita were produced, until 1942, when all production records since 1910 were broken, both farm and com- mercial broiler production increased. This high production continued through 1946. While indications are that total Cali- fornia chicken production in 1940-1944 was larger by perhaps 50 per cent than in 1925-1929, a large part of the increase came about as the result of the commer- cial broiler additions. The per-capita pro- duction of chickens in 1940-1944 was actually far smaller than it had been in 1925-1929. PRODUCTION CHANGES Some sign of future trends may be seen in records of hatchery sales and numbers of chickens on farms. Demand factors are not predictable. Newcomers to the poultry industry are often impressed with the rapid changes [in FIGURE 4 CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCTION - UNITED STATES (DRESSED WEIGHT) CO o z o Q. o CO CD Commercial Production Farm and Nonfarm Chickens 1930 1935 1940 1945 Table 5 ALL CHICKENS ON FARMS ON JANUARY 1 CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES, AND WESTERN STATES Averages, January 1 California United States Western states Relative changes, January 1, 1925-1929 = 100 California United States Western states million chickens 100 103 92 102 104 118 108 100 99 90 109 114 117 105 1925-1929 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 January 1 1945 17.3 17.9 16.0 17.6 18.1 20.4 18.7 451.6 446.7 405.1 492.4 516.5 530.2 475.4 41.8 43.6 38.1 43.5 43.5 45.7 41.4 100 104 91 104 104 1946 110 1947. 99 [12] which occur in both egg and chicken production. They conclude, from these changes, that there are certain absolute indications of what trend future produc- tion will take. There is no such guarantee. Most of the available data do not indicate what conditions will be over a long-range period— two, five, or more years, for example. There are, however, a few guide- posts which indicate broadly what direc- tion egg and chicken production may take. For example, some hint as to future supply trends can be obtained by examin- ing data on sales of chicks from hatch- eries, numbers of chickens, hens and pullets, chicks, and young chickens on hand. But even if all supply factors could be accurately depicted, there would still remain those unpredictable factors which influence the demand for both eggs and chickens. Hatchery Operations Data on intentions of farmers to pur- chase baby chicks, and the actual sales, are meaningful since better than 93 per cent of the nation's chicks in recent years have come from commercial hatcheries. For the entire United States, hatchery sales in the first nine months of 1947 were approximately 1 per cent greater than during the corresponding 1946 period. In both the Pacific coast and mountain states, the first nine months of 1947 showed an advance over 1946 on sales. One of the reasons for this increase, par- ticularly in the west, was the improvement in egg prices in 1947. California hatcheries usually sell from 4 to 5 per cent of the nation's chicks. Be- cause its output is usually less seasonal than that of the nation, California's sales are relatively greater than national ones from May to December. For the first nine months of 1947, California sales were ap- proximately 9 per cent greater than they had been in the similar period of 1946. It should be emphasized that the number of chicks hatched and sold is of more im- portance from a short-range standpoint of future supplies of eggs than from a long-range one. Indications in the summer and early fall of 1947, based on hatchery sales and numbers of potential layers on farms, were that both egg and broiler production Table 6 CONSUMPTION OF EGGS, CHICKENS, AND TURKEYS IN THE UNITED STATES Annual per-capita consumption Relative changes Period 1925-1929 = 100 1929 = 100 Eggs Chickens Turkeys Eggs Chickens Turkeys number pounds pounds Averages : 1925-1929 334 20.1 1.7* 100 100 100* 1930-1934 311 19.9 2.0 93 99 118 1935-1939 298 17.9 2.7 89 85 159 1940-1944 328 24.0 3.5 98 119 206 Annual : 1945 397 378 28.9 25.4 4.3 4.5 119 113 144 126 253 1946 265 1929 data. [13] in the fall and winter of 1947 would be slightly greater than it was in the spring of 1946. Numbers of Chickens Estimates of the number of chickens on farms have been published over a long period of years, by the Bureau of Agri- cultural Economics of the United States Department of Agriculture. These esti- mates were divided into "hens and pul- lets" and "other chickens." While such data were of use in indicating what had happened in the industry, certain addi- tional information issued more recently has offered far better glimpses into the immediate future of supplies than were possible previously (see table 5, p. 12) . Indications are that the number of chickens in California probably expanded fivefold from 1900 to 1930. After 1930, a decline set in and numbers were rela- tively stationary until the outbreak of World War II. On January 1, 1940 through 1944, there was an average of 17.6 million chickens, an increase of 10 per cent over the average on the same date in the previous five years— and only 1.5 per cent greater than the average number on hand January 1, 1925-1934. During the last year of the war, numbers rose to a high level, so that on January 1, 1946, they were 18 per cent above the 1925- 1929 average. During 1946, a decline of approximately 8 per cent was recorded, in large part the result of a critical feed situation. On January 1, 1947, chickens in California were about 8 per cent above the average number in 1925—1929. Up to 1930, chicken numbers in the United States expanded far more slowly than in California. A more pronounced decline in numbers set in which was not turned until the beginning of the war. The relative increase between 1935-1939 and 1940-1944 was more than double that in California, the jump being close to 22 per cent. Numbers continued to be relatively high both on January 1, 1945, and January 1, 1947. The 1946 feed short- age caused a drop in the national total as it had in the California one. At the be- ginning of 1947, chicken numbers were only about 5 per cent above what they had been on January 1 for the years 1925- 1929. Since California has been dependent on the other western states for a large part of its egg supplies, the trends in the entire west are important. Chicken numbers in that region moved in the same general direction as those in California. During Table 7 AVERAGE ANNUAL RECEIPTS OF DRESSED POULTRY AT LOS ANGELES AND SAN FRANCISCO Period Receipts at Per cent of receipts originating outside of 11 western states Los Angeles San Francisco Los Angeles San Francisco Averages : 1925-1929 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 1945 1946 thousand pounds 5,924 7,864 9,946 23,908 22,627 thousand pounds 7,228 10,031 14,250 22,349 28,109 37 32 29 46 63 22 22 23 41 43 [14] FIGURE 5 NET IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF EGGS - UNITED STATES 800 1925 1930 World War II, increases in the western states other than California were slightly larger than those in California. In 1945, however, numbers failed to increase so rapidly, and in 1946 the decrease was such that numbers on January 1, 1947, in the eleven western states, were esti- mated to have been lower than on the same date in the 1925-1929 period. Each spring, information released on the number of chicks and young chickens on farms points the way toward numbers of layers and potential layers in the farm flocks of the nation and its major sub- divisions. From April 1 to July 1, numbers of chicks and young chickens on farms are increasing as the result of hatchery purchases. On October 1, 1947, numbers of all young chickens were 2 per cent greater as compared with a year previous, for the United States, and the 1947 esti- mates were only 2 per cent below the Octo- ber 1 average for 1936 through 1945. 950 For the west, there was an increase of about 3 per cent between October 1, 1946, and October 1, 1947. Estimates were lower than those of the 1936-1945 aver- age, by about 11 per cent. Separate data are not available for California. Beginning on August 1 of each year, estimates are made of potential layers on farms. These include pullets— layers and nonlayers— together with hens. Potential layers on October 1, 1947 r in the United States and in the west were more nu- merous than they were a year previous. Numbers were over the 1936-1945 aver- ages in the United States by 7 per cent. In the western states, numbers were less by 6 per cent. The number of actual lavers on farms is estimated each month for the several states. An excellent picture is obtained of increases and decreases in the number of birds being added to and culled from farm flocks. In the United States, the [15] FIGURE 6 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF FARM PRICES OF EGGS, UNITED STATES AVERAGE, 1941-1945 LEGEND CENTS PER C 27.0- 30.0 30.1- 33.0 33.1 - 36.0 36.1- 39.0 39.1 - over number of layers in September, 1947, was about 1 per cent greater than the number reported a year previous. Almost a like decrease was reported for the western states, while California showed no change. FEED PRICES Changing feed costs cause changes in supplies of eggs and chickens in spite of continued demand. High feed costs mean fewer chickens. Greater emphasis is placed on feed costs in areas of commercial egg and broiler production in California (and elsewhere) than in most of the general farming areas of the country. The largest cost item in these California enterprises is feed. Changing feed costs often make for rapid changes in the supply of both eggs and chickens even when the demand for these products may not be changing rapidly. Lower egg-feed price ratios usually result in a decrease in the number of chickens raised, lessening total numbers. Egg (or Chicken) and Feed Price Ratios In the United States as a whole, there was little difference between the average egg-feed price ratio in the two ten-year periods, 1924-1933 and 1934-1943. The amount of grain equal in value to one dozen eggs was 13.0 and 12.6 pounds, respectively, for those two periods. In both 1944 and 1945, the requirements were 11.5 and 13.1 pounds, respectively, while in 1946, not only was the ratio un- favorable, but feed supplies were also short and the raising of chickens was limited. Even with high egg prices in 1947 the ratio was unfavorable. The feed-egg price ratio does not take into account the price level, nor does it allow for any changes in the efficiency of [16] FIGURE 7 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF FARM PRICES OF CHICKENS, UNITED STATES AVERAGE, 1941-1945 CENTS PER POUND - 20.0 20.1 - 22.0 22.1 - 24.0 24.1- 26.0 26 - over feed used. Available calculations indicate that between 1922-1931 and 1932-1941 there was a decrease of almost 7 per cent in the amount of all concentrates required per 100 eggs, while the use of grain alone decreased about 11 per cent. As early as 1926, estimates indicated that over one half of the poultry feeds sold in California were brought from out- side the state, and during the war years, they were even more difficult to get. In- crease in population, together with the transfer of land from cereal and feed production to fruits, vegetables, and other more intensive crops, will probably con- tinue to make feed procurement a vital problem to the state's poultrymen. During World War II, it was especially difficult to obtain protein supplies. While California feed prices have aver- aged higher than those reported for the entire country, this unfavorable position has been offset by the higher prices re- ceived for eggs by the California operator. Long-time comparisons between chick- en and feed prices in California are not altogether satisfactory. Such data as are available point to a very favorable situa- tion in 1941-1945 for the farmer selling chickens and purchasing feed. As in the nation, there was an unfavorable relation- ship in 1946 and 1947— the latter year being decidedly unfavorable. CONSUMPTION Per-capita consumption of both eggs and chickens remains high due to high incomes, meat shortages, high meat prices, added broiler supplies. Egg Consumption Unfortunately, data are not available which permit an accurate comparison of California consumption with that of the [17] nation, especially in the recent war years. Based upon estimates of consumption for the fifteen years, 1925-1939, the state's per-capita consumption was about 15 per cent lower than that of the country as a whole. In the United States, an apparent high point was recorded for 1927 with an aver- age per-capita consumption of 342 eggs. By 1935, this had dropped to 278, when a reverse trend, accelerated by the war, sent it up again to 392 in 1945. Again in 1946, per-capita consumption dropped slightly. Rationing, the difficulty of ob- taining meats, the greater speed with which eggs and poultry could be added to food supplies, and the high buying power of the public were some of the factors which worked toward a high con- sumption during the war. One of the most significant factors in the consumption pic- ture has been the insistent demand for top-quality eggs. The higher-than-average incomes plus the desire for quality foods and the increased knowledge of the value of protective foods, such as eggs, might well be kept in mind by poultrymen who are interested in keeping consumption on a high level. Egg consumption tended to remain high with the removal of price controls on meat since higher meat prices tended to keep the demand for eggs (and chick- ens) strong. In the winter of 1946-47 and in 1947, retail meat prices, as compared with egg prices, were at an exceptionally high level. One result has been an esti- mated 1947 consumption which may be the highest on record. Chicken Consumption Available information points to a lower per-capita consumption of chicken in California than in the nation as a whole. In the United States, a trend somewhat similar to that of per-capita egg consump- tion (see table 6, p. 13) is noticeable ex- cept that a pick-up started earlier in the war period and continued on a slightly higher level through 1946. Chickens were not removed in any considerable amounts for lend-lease. From 1942 through 1946, estimates point to a record breaking per- capita chicken consumption. The same reasoning advanced for the increased per- capita consumption of eggs through the war years is valid for chicken consump- tion—the increase would not have been possible except for the added supplies of commercial broilers. Table 8 FARM PRICES OF EGGS, CALIFORNIA AND THE UNITED STATES California United States Excess, California over United States Relative change 1925-1929 =100 California United States Averages : 1925-1929 cents per dozen 31.5 20.1 22.6 34.0 43.0 44.1 cents per dozen 28.4 17.3 20.8 28.2 37.5 37.3 cents per dozen 3.1 2.8 1.8 5.8 5.5 6.8 100 64 72 108 137 140 100 1930-1934 61 1935-1939 1940-1944 Annual : 1945 1946 73 99 132 131 [18] PRODUCTION AREAS Largest production is in counties around San Francisco Bay. Production in the Central Valley has increased; in southern California, it has dropped. Egg and chicken production in Cali- fornia has not changed greatly since 1925 when a production pattern was estab- lished concentrating the poultry industry in certain areas of the state (fig. 3, p. 10) . The heaviest production center then, as now, was in counties touching San Fran- cisco Bay— Sonoma, Alameda, Santa Clara, Napa, and Marin. These five coun- ties produced over 35 per cent of the state's egg and farm-chicken output in 1944. Five counties of southern Califor- nia—Los Angeles, San Bernardino, River- side, Orange, and San Diego— accounted for an additional 27 per cent. Since 1930, a change has occurred in the relative position of the Central Valley in the state's egg and chicken industry. By 1944, about 28 per cent of the state's egg production centered in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys, as compared with less than 23 per cent in 1930. An ac- tual decline occurred in both chicken numbers and egg production in the southern California area between 1930 and 1945, the largest loss being in Los Angeles County. San Bernardino County's production increased so that its 1944 out- put was almost equal to that of Los An- geles County. IMPORTS-EXPORTS State in-shipments of eggs and chickens are going up. Large national exports of eggs are not likely to continue. California Egg Shipments In California, about 92 per cent of all the eggs produced are sold, as compared with 73 per cent in the United States as a whole. There has been a growing tendency in all parts of the country for farmers to sell the eggs produced. Thus a smaller percentage is consumed and used on farms. This reflects an increasing average size of farm flock plus an increasing aver- age production per bird. It does not imply a lower per-capita consumption of eggs on farms. For at least two decades, until the last half of the 1930's, California was more than self sufficient in egg supplies. In- creasing amounts were shipped out until 1928— a record year— when shipments Table 9 FARM PRICES OF CHICKENS, CALIFORNIA AND THE UNITED STATES Period California United States Excess, California over United States Relative change 1925-1929 =100 California United States Averages : 1925-1929 cents per pound 26.0 cents per pound 21.1 cents per pound 4.9 100 100 1930-1934 17.5 13.4 4.1 67 64 1935-1939 ........ 17.6 15.1 2.5 68 72 1940-1944 22.7 19.3 3.4 87 91 Annual : 1945 28.7 25.9 2.8 110 123 1946 30.1 27.0 3.1 116 128 [19] Table 10 RETAIL EGG PRICES, CALIFORNIA* AND THE UNITED STATES Period California United States cents per dozen Excess, United States over California cents per dozen Relative change 1925-1929 =100 California United States cents per dozen Averages : 1925-1929 45.3 51.8 5.5 100 100 1930-1934 31.6 34.2 2.6 70 66 1935-1939 33.3 35.7 2.4 74 69 1940-1944 46.6 46.6 103 90 Annual : 1945 60.1 58.1 -2.0 132 112 1946 63.1 58.6 -4.5 139 113 * Average of Los Angeles and San Francisco prices. totaled 2,238 cars. The bulk of the eggs for out-of-state shipments came from central and northern points. By 1933, southern California shipments were no longer important (see figure on cover). After the peak year of 1928, however, egg production declined until by 1938, California was having to draw on the nation's egg reserves to meet the demands of its growing population. Egg Shipments into California Even when the state was contributing to the country's egg reserves, shipments into California were made from other states, largely because of price and quality factors. An annual average of 124,000 cases from outside the state was unloaded at Los Angeles and San Francisco from 1925 to 1929. In the following years, 1930-1934, there was a drop to 108,000 cases. As shipments out of state de- clined, in-shipments rose until, from 1935 to 1939, these averaged 221,000 cases. With the influx of population, meat rationing, etc., the in-shipments more than doubled so that in the 1940-1945 period, the annual average jumped to 587,000 cases. In 1945, all in-shipment records were broken when 1,400,000 cases were unloaded at the two principal cities. Although the 1946 in-shipments decreased, they were still on a high level. High in-shipments continued in 1947. With the uptrend of in-shipments has come a significant change in their origin. Until 1937, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Utah furnished the bulk, with only minor amounts from the Mississippi Valley. After 1937, a lesser volume origi- nated in Washington and Oregon, while that from other sections rose rapidly. Two thirds of the out-of-state supplies in 1945 came from east of the eleven western states. Poultry Shipments into California No accurate picture of the poultry movements in and out of the state can be drawn. The lumping of shipments into the categories "dressed poultry," "live poultry," etc., does not permit a separate listing of chickens, turkeys, ducks, and the like. No record of out-of-state ship- ments has been compiled. Indications are that California is becoming increasingly [20] dependent upon other states for its chicken supplies. It can, apparently, sup- ply its needs for turkeys, broilers, and fryers. In fact, net movements of turkeys, in recent years, have unquestionably been out of state. Reliance on the Leghorn breed for egg production has made for a flow of heavy-breed chickens into the state in the live and dressed form. While there has been a growing tend- ency for poultry to be shipped dressed rather than alive, the great increase of in-shipments cannot be attributed entirely to this change in form of shipment. In the 1925-1929 period, about 62 per cent of the Los Angeles and 88 per cent of the San Francisco dressed poultry receipts originated in the western states (includ- ing California) while in the 1940-1944 period, the percentages had declined to 54 and 59, respectively (see table 7, p. 14) . Available data point to California's increasing dependence on the Mississippi Valley for its chicken supplies. Foreign Trade in Eggs The situation in California during the past few years with regard to in- and out- shipments of eggs is in almost direct con- trast to what has happened in world markets in so far as the United States is concerned (fig. 5, p. 15). Violent dis- turbances of the world egg trade resulted from World War I, and the consequences of the second world war have been even more devastating. Not only were trade channels between nations and areas stopped, but production in many of the world's most concentrated supply areas was all but blotted out. The repercussions arising from the war have had and will continue to have an effect on the egg and poultry situation of both California and the country as a whole. From 1917 until 1940, the United States was on a net egg import basis, but in no year did imports equal as much as 1 per cent of the nation's production. After lend-lease went into effect in 1941, a great expansion occurred in egg exports. These were mostly dried eggs, to conserve shipping space. In 1944, the equivalent of 730 million shell eggs were exported— about 15 per cent of the country's total production for that year. For the five years of net exports (1941-1945), an equivalent of about 11 per cent of the nation's total production was shipped, chiefly to the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union. The prospects for con- tinued large exports are not bright. This is one of the problems, however, for which no satisfactory solution can, ap- parently, be found. Yet the answer is of vital importance to the egg industry of the state and the nation. If egg consump- tion should continue to be as high as it was in the first quarter of 1947, there would not be sufficient eggs available for a large export. On the other hand, if red meats should be more plentiful, with lower prices, exports would be a most important factor in balancing egg supplies and demand. Unlike eggs, poultry has not been im- portant in United States foreign trade. STORING, PROCESSING Holdings of frozen eggs are increasing; those of shell eggs are going down. More eggs were dried during the war; since then, fewer have been dried. Storage of eggs and other poultry products is one of the methods of balanc- ing supply and demand. The stocks vary not only with the product— eggs, broilers, roasters, etc.— but also within a single classification. For example, eggs can be stored frozen as dried eggs or in the shell. [21] Changes in processing eggs have been particularly rapid in recent years, especi- ally during World War II. In recent years approximately 10 per cent of the nation's shell-egg storage holdings were in the coolers of the three Pacific coast states. Over the past fifteen years, shell- egg storage in the nation has actually de- creased. In the five-year period 1941- 1945, the average annual peak storage holdings of shell eggs in the United States were 18 per cent lower than in the 1925- 1930 period. Frozen egg holdings of the three Pacific coast states are usually not over 3 to 5 per cent of the total in the nation. An uptrend in total holdings in the United States from 1925-1929 to 1941-1945 in- dicates an increase of approximately 300 per cent in annual peak holdings. The up- trend has been especially steady, and may be partially accounted for by changing American food habits, particularly the in- creased use of prepared mixtures and bakery goods. In addition, during the war, large quantities of frozen eggs were stored for dehydrating later. While the drying of eggs is not a new process, the total amount so prepared was never large until World War II. An average of about 5 million pounds of dried eggs was produced annually in the United States in the 1930's. In 1941, a procurement program for dried eggs was started to meet foreign requirements, and the amounts rose from approximately 36 million pounds in 1941 to 274 million in 1944. In 1945, production dropped back almost to the 1941 level, but in- creased again in 1946. Egg drying is largely carried on in the middle west; little or none is done in California. Immediately before World War II, not more than 5 or 6 per cent of the farm eggs in the United States were processed. [22 The amount rose to 20 per cent in 1942, and 26 per cent in 1944. Although it dropped to 12 per cent in 1945, that per- centage was still equal to about 18 million cases. The changes in storage and processing are significant from several standpoints. California eggs are largely stored and used as shell eggs. They are not processed to a great extent as frozen eggs, nor are any, at present, dried. In future, all stor- age holdings must be taken into account in order to appraise the industry's eco- nomic position. Any large procurement of dried eggs in the future will probably depend upon such support programs as the United States Department of Agri- culture may be required to put into effect, especially in the middle west. Holdings of eggs often offer a partial clue to the future turn of events in the industry. For example, in the spring of 1947, eggs were being placed in storage at such a below-normal rate that lower storage supplies for the fall and winter could be anticipated. Poultry storage holdings since 1925 have not shown such pronounced varia- tion as have those for eggs. Nevertheless, the change between the proportions of various types of poultry held are sig- nificant. The average peak holdings of all classes of poultry in storage (usually about January 1 ) for the five years 1942- 1946 were approximately 70 per cent greater than the average for the ten years 1932-1941. The largest part of this in- crease has been in turkeys— approxi- mately 120 per cent between 1932-1941 and 1942-1946. In the Pacific coast states, total hold- ings show less seasonal variation. Turkeys play a far more important role in total holdings than they do in the nation as a whole. ] Poultry processing in the past few years has undergone a number of changes. The growing tendency is to market dressed, rather than live, poultry. There is also an increase in the canned product, as well as in "oven-prepared," "pan- ready" frozen poultry which is gaining in popularity over drawn birds. Still an- other change has been the cutting up of chickens, selling a part or parts of the carcass rather than the entire bird. As use of individual home freezers and of frozen-food lockers increases, sales of bulk poultry might also increase. PRICES Compared with meat prices, egg and chicken prices have not been high. Since 1941, California eggs have been higher than those in the U. S. Producer chicken prices have been less favorable than those for eggs. Unlike eggs, chickens were not bought in large amount for export by the govern- ment. Military procurement, however, was high, averaging 9.2 per cent of the total production from 1942 through 1945. All poultry products were exempted from price controls on July 1, 1946. Eggs and chickens (of less than 3.5 pounds, live weight, and excluding broilers and roosters) have been supported at not less than 90 per cent of parity since October 2, 1942. This support will run until De- cember 31, 1943. Producer Prices of Eggs and Chickens Over long periods of time, the most important factors influencing egg and chicken prices are: (1) the production trend of eggs and chickens in relation to the growth of population; (2) changes in buying power and consumption habits; and (3) changes in the general price level. From 1925 through 1933, farm egg prices trended downward both in the United States as a whole and in Cali- fornia. Even with considerable recovery from 1933 to 1935, the producer prices in the last half of the 1930's were ap- preciably lower than those which had prevailed in the 1920's. In 1941, prices began to climb and by 1945, they were 100 per cent above those of 1939 (fig. 6, p. 16). In the United States, 1946 prices were only a fraction of a cent lower than they had been in 1945 but in 1947, they will probably show a rise of from 15 to 20 per cent over the previous year (see table 8, p. 18). Seasonal prices have changed materi- ally over the past two decades, largely because of the more even production throughout the year. In the late twenties, farmers' prices in the United States for October, November, and December aver- aged about 80 per cent above those of the second quarter, while from 1941 to 1946, the percentage for the same period was only about 45. The buying program of the government, in addition to the more even seasonal production, was effec- tive in this connection. The high price was set by government order from 1942 to 1945. Consumer buying power has had an effect on egg prices, especially during World War II. Corrected for changes in numbers, buying power declined in both the United States and in California from 1929 to 1933. While it expanded slowly from 1934 onward, it was not until 1941 that the 1929 level was reached. During World War II, buying power expanded rapidly to 1944, when it was over twice as high as it was in 1940. In California, buying power in the war years expanded to a greater extent than it did in the United States as a whole. [23] Adjusted for changes in general prices, egg prices were fairly stable until about 1930. During the 1930's, they were rela- tively low as compared with the general price level. In the war years, beginning in 1942 and continuing through 1946, they averaged higher in comparison to general prices. Chicken Prices The behavior of farm chicken prices has been somewhat different from that of eggs since 1925. Largely because of the slower growth of farm chicken production as compared with that of eggs, chicken prices held to relatively higher levels in the 1920's in the United States as well as in California. Chicken prices slid rela- tively lower than did those for eggs from 1929 to 1933. The recovery in the last half of the 1930's was relatively greater. As with eggs, prices for chickens began to climb in 1941, but they failed to reach as high relative levels (see table 9, p. 19) . Chicken prices in California and in the North Atlantic states have topped those of other sections, generally averaging from one fifth to two fifths higher (fig. 7, p. 17). The effect of the increased produc- tion of commercial broilers on chicken prices cannot be seen clearly because of the abnormal conditions surrounding the entire poultry industry during the war years. Efficient egg production has been em- phasized nationally and in California, and one of the practical results has been a divergence in egg and chicken supply trends. This emphasis has not been wrongly placed since the main business of most poultrymen is egg production. If the ratio of chicken and egg production to the human population continues as in the past, it would be reasonable to suppose that chicken prices would be in a rela- tively more favorable position than those for eggs; but this situation could be changed by still further increasing the production of broilers. Commercial Broiler Prices Since price data are not available, long- time trends cannot be depicted, but there are certain relationships between com- mercial broiler and farm chicken prices which would indicate that in recent years they have been relatively stronger in Cali- fornia than in the United States as a whole. This is probably a reflection of the stronger demand which prevailed during the war years since California is a deficit chicken-producing area. There is also evidence that broiler prices in the United States did not gain relative to farm chicken prices in the 1934-1946 period. Retail Egg Prices Comparison between the average retail prices in Los Angeles and San Francisco and in the United States as a whole reflects to some extent the increase in egg demand which has occurred in the state as com- pared with the nation (see table 10, p. 20) . Indications are that Los Angeles and San Francisco retail prices have increased relatively more than those in the country as a whole. 10m-12,'47(A6446) [24]