G 000 083 297 2 illii) i ^lUVANUIlfJ^ <>^t•UBKAKT•£^ ^i-muPMia/' &AHVHaiH^ .5MFUNIVERy/A ^5MEUNiVER% "^Tiunwsni^^ ^•lOSAKCElfj^ %a3AiNn'3\v^ ^•lOSANGElfXA ^ "^ - ^ CO >■ t>5 > .^WEUNIVERS"^ ^XJlJDNVSOl^ "%a3AWI13WV^ ^5^^•llBRA!lYQ^ ^^HlBRARYQr ^m\mi^^ '%ojiw>jo>' .^ >- ' <: 0= ^lOS-ANCElfj^ o _ __ so > so ^OFCAl!F0%^ ^OF-atlF0% I' en 1 CO ^tllBRARYGr ^lUBRARYQ^ ^OF-CAUFOMj^ <^^F'CAllFOff^ ,5JrtElINlVER% < ^V:10SANCHFJ^ \^i\m'i^ ^^mwrn-i"^ "&Aavaan#- ^lOSANCElfj-^ "^^/iJllAlNn-JftV^ 3 m % tr V J -rt «-J ^ ^vlOS^CElfj^^ ^0FCAIIF0% ^OfCALIfOMj^ § >»Aav}iani^ 1720. Hutcliesoii. 'Au luquiiy,' 1729, &c., pp. 186-198. ^ 1728. lb. 'An Essay,' &c., pp. 34-43, and elsewhere. xxviii Preface. of measuring happiness in several different works and pamphlets, as for instance in that remarkable one called ' A Table of the Springs of Action/ (London, 1817, p. 3;) and also in the 'Codification Proposal, addressed by Jeremy Behtham to all nations professing Liberal opinions' (London, 1822, pp. 7-11.) He here speaks explicitly of the appli- cation of arithmetic to questions of utilit3^ meaning no doubt the application of mathematical methods. He even describes (p. 11) the four circumstances governing the value of a pleasure or pain as the dimensions of its value, though he is incorrect in treating prDjyinquity and certainty as dimensions. It is worthy of notice that Destutt de Tracy, one of the most philosophic of all economists, has in a few words recognised the true method of treatment, though he has not followed up his own idea. Referring to the circumstances which, in his opinion, render all economic and moral calculations very delicate, he says i ' On ne pent guere employer dans ces matieres que des considerations tirees de la theorie des limites.' So well known an English 1 ' Elemens d'ldeologie/ iv, et v^ Parties. ' Traite de la Vo- lonte et de Ses EfFets,' Paris, 1815, 8vo, p. 499. Edition of 1826, J). 335. American Edition, ' A treatise on Political Economy, translated from the unpublished French original,' Georgetown, D.c. 1817, p. xiii. Preface. xxix economist as Malthiis has also sliown in a feAV lilies his comjilete appreciation of the mathematical nature of economic questions. In one of his ex- cellent pamphlets"' he remarks 'Many of the questions, hoth in morals and politics, seem to be of the nature of the problems de maxiinis and minimis in Fluxions; in which there is always a point where a certain effect is the greatest, while on either side of this point it gradually diminishes.' But I have not thought it desirable to swell the bibliographical list by including all the works in which there are to be found brief or casual remarks of the kind. I may here remark that all the writings of Mr. Henry Dunning Macleod exhibit a strong tendency to mathematical treatment. Some of his works or papers in which this mathematical spirit is most strongly manifested have been placed in the list. It is not my business to criticise his ingenious views, or to determine how far he really has created a mathematical system. While I cer- tainly differ from him on many important points, I am bound to acknowledge the assistance which I derive from the use of several of his works. ni ' Observations on the Effects of the Corn Laws, and of a rise or fall in the price of corn on the Agriculture and General Wealth of the Country,' London, 1814, p. 30; 3rd Edition, 1815, p. 32. XXX Preface. In the fourth and most important class of mathematico-economic writers must be placed those who have consciously and avowedly at- tempted to frame a mathematical theory of the subject, and have, if my judgment is correct, succeeded in reaching a true view of the Science. In this class certain distinguished French philo- sophers take precedence and priority. One might perhaps go back with propriety to Condillac's work, ' Le Commerce et le Gouvernement/ first pub- lished in the year 1776, the same year in which the ' Wealth of Nations ' appeared. In the first few chapters of this charming philosophic work we meet perhaps the earliest distinct statement of the true connection between value and utility. The book, however, is not included in the list because there is no explicit attempt at mathe- matical treatment. It is the French engineer Dupuit who must probably be credited with the earliest perfect comprehension of the theory of utility. In attemi)ting to frame a precise measure of the utility of public works, he observed that the utility of a commodity not only varies immensely from one individual to another, but that it is also widely different for the same person according to circumstances. He says ' nous verrions que I'utilite du morceau de pain pent ci'oltre pour le meme Preface. xxxi iiidividu depiiis zero jiisqii'aii cliiffre de sa fortune entiere' (1849 Diipiiit, ' De rinflueiice des Peages/ etc., p. 185). He establishes, in_fect, a theory of the gradation of utility,^ beautifully and perfectly expounded by means of geometrical diagrams, and this theory is undoubtedly coincident in essence with that contained in this book. He does not, however, follow his ideas out in an algebraic form. Dupuit's theory was the subject of some contro- versy in the pages of the ' Annales des Ponts et Chaussees,' but did not receive much attention elsewhere, and I am not aware that any English economist ever knew anj^thing about these re- markable memoirs. The earlier treatise of Cournot, his admirable * Recherches sur les Principes Mathematiques de la Theorie des Richesses' (Paris, 1838), resembles Dupuit's memoirs in being, until within the last few years, quite unknown to English economists. In other respects Cournot's method is contrasted to Dupuit's. Cournot did not frame any ultimate theory of the ground and nature of utility and value, but, taking the palpable facts known concerning the relations of price, production and consumption of commodities, he investigated these relations analytically and diagraphically with a power and felicity which leaves little to be desired. This xxxii Preface. work must occupy a remarkable position in the history of the subject. It is strange that it should have remained for me among Englishmen to dis- cover its value. Some years since (1875) Mr. Tod- hunter wrote to me as follows : — ' I have sometimes wondered whether there is anything of importance in a book published many years since by M. A. A. Cournot, entitled " Recherches sur les Principes Mathematiques de la Theorie des Richesses." I never saw it, and when I have mentioned the title, I never found any person who had read the book. Yet Cournot was eminent for mathematics and metaphysics, and so there may be some merit in this book.' I procured a copy of the work as far back as 1872, but have only recently studied it with sufticient care to form any definite opinion upon its value. Even now I have by no means mastered all parts of it, my mathematical power being insufficient to enable me to follow Cournot in all parts of his analysis. My impression is that the first chapter of the work is not remarkable; that the second chapter contains an important anticipation of discussions concerning the proper method of treating prices, including an anticipation (p. 21) of my logarithmic method of ascertaining varia- tions in the value of gold ; that the third chapter, treating of the conditions of the foreign exchanges. Preface. xxxiii is highly ingenious if not particularly useful ; but that by far the most important part of the book commences with the fourth chapter upon the ' Loi du debit/ The remainder of the book, in fact, con- tains a wonderful analysis of the laws of supply and demand, and of the relations of prices, production, consumption, expenses and profits. Cournot starts from the assumption that the debit or demand for a commodity is a function of the price, or D =3 F (2?) ; and then, after laying down empirically a few conditions of this function, he proceeds to work out with surprising power the consequences which follow from those conditions. Even apart from its economic importance this investigation, so far as I can venture to judge it, presents a beautiful example of mathematical reasoning, in which knowledge is apparently evolved out of ignorance. In reality the method consists in assuming certain simple conditions of the functions as conformable to experience, and then disclosing by symbolic inference the implicit results of these conditions. But I am quite convinced that the investigation is of high economic importance, and that, when the parts of political economy to which the theory relates come to be adequately treated, as they never have yet been, the treatment must be based upon the analysis of Cournot, or at least must c xxxiv Preface. follow his general method. It should be added that his investigation has little relation to the contents of this work, because Cournot does not recede to any theory of utility, but commences wdth the phenomenal laws of supply and demand. Discouraged apparently by the small amount of attention paid to his mathematical treatise, Cournot in a later year (1863) produced a more popular non-symbolic work on Economics; but this later work does not compare favourably in interest and importance with his first treatise. English economists can hardly be blamed for their ignorance of Cournot's economic works when we find French writers equally bad. Thus the authors of Guillaumin's excellent Dictionnaire de I'Economie Politique, which is on the whole the best work of reference in the literature of the science, ignore Cournot and his works altogether, and so likewise does Sandelin in his copious Reper- toire General d'Economie Politique. M. Joseph Garnier in his otherwise admirable text-book » mixes up Cournot with far inferior mathema- ticians, saying — ' Dans ces derniers temps M. Esmenard du Mazet, et M. du Mesnil-Marigny ont aussi fait abus, ce nous semble, des formules alge- briques ; les Recherches sur les Principes Mathema- " 'Trait6 d'Economie Politique,' Cinqui^me Edition, p. 701. Preface. xxxv tiqiies des Riclicsses de M. Couriiot, ne nous ont fourni aucun moyen d'eliicidation.' MacCiilloch of course knows nothing of Cournot. Mr. H. D. Macleod has the merit at least of mentioning Cournot's work, but he misspells the name of the author, and gives only the title of the book, which he had pro- bably never seen. We now come to a truly remarkable discovery in the history of this branch of literature. Some years since my friend Professor Adamson had noticed in one of Kautz' works on Political Economy o a brief reference to a book said to contain a theory of pleasure and pain, written by a German author named Hermann Heinrich Gossen. Although he had advertised for it, Professor Adamson was un- able to obtain a sight of this book until August 1878, when he fortunately discovered it in a German bookseller's catalogue, and succeeded in purchasing it. The book was published at Brunswick in 1854 ; it consists of 278 well-filled pages, and is entitled, ' Entwickelung der Gesetze des menschlichen Ver- kehrs, und der daraus fliessenden Regeln fur mens- chliches Handeln,' which may be translated — ' De- velopment of the laws of human Commerce and of the consequent Rules of Human Action.' I will « ' Theorie und Geschichte tier National-Oekonomik,' 1858, vol. i. p. 9. C 3 xxxvi Preface. describe the contents of this remarkable volume as they are reported to me by Professor Adamson. Gossen evidently held the highest possible opinion of the importance of his own theory, for he com- mences by claiming honours in economic science equal to those of Copernicus in astronomy. He then at once insists that mathematical treatment, being the only sound one, must be applied through- out ; but, out of consideration for the reader, the higher analysis will be explicitly introduced only when it is requisite to determine maxima and minima. The treatise then opens with the consi- deration of Economics as the theory of pleasure and pain, that is as the theory of the procedure by which the individual and the aggregate of in- dividuals constituting society, may realise the maximum of pleasure with the minimum of painful effort. The natural law of pleasure is then clearly stated, somewhat as follows : — Increase of the same hind of consumption yields ^pleasure continuously dimi- nishing up to the point of satiety. This law he illustrates geometrically, and then proceeds to investigate the conditions under which the total pleasure from one or more objects may be raised to a maximum. The term Werth is next introduced, which may, Professor Adamson thinks, be rendered with strict Preface. xxxvii accuracy, as utility , and Gossen points out that the quantity of utility, material or immaterial, is mea- sured by the quantity of i:>leasure which it affords^ He classifies useful objects as, (1) those which '>^fl/'-'-"i,^y'^' possess pleasure-giving powers in themselves ; (2] those which only possess such powers when^*^**^'*^'^ in combination with other objects; (3) those which»uAn.ji>/«^ ' only serve as means towards the production of pleasure-giving objects. He is careful to point out that there is no such thing as absolute utility, utility being purely a relation between a thing and a person. He next proceeds to give the derivative laws of utility somewhat in the following manner : — That separate portions of the same pleasure- giving object have very different degrees of utility, and that in general for each person only a limited number of such portions has utility ; any addition beyond this limit is useless, but the point of use- lessness is only reached after the utility has gone through all the stages or degrees of intensity. Hence he draws the practical conclusion that each person should so distribute his resources as to render the final increments of each pleasure-giving commodity of equal utility for him. In the next place Gossen deals with labour, starting from the proposition that the utility of any product must be estimated after deduction xxxviii Preface. of the pains of labour required to produce it. He describes the variation of the pain of labour much as I have done, exhibiting it graphically, and in- ferring that we must carry on labour to the point at which the utility of the product equals the pain of production. In treating the theory of exchange he shows how barter gives rise to an mimense increase of utility, and he infers that exchange will proceed up to the point at which the utilities of the portions next to be given and received are equal. A complicated geometrical representation of the theory of exchange is given. The theory of rent is investigated in a most general manner, and the work concludes with somewhat vague social specu- lations, which, in Professor Adamson's opinion, are of inferior merit compared with the earlier portions of the treatise. From this statement it is quite apparent that Gossen has completely anticipated me as regards the general principles and method of the theory of Economics. So far as I can gather, his treat- ment of the fundamental theory is even more general and thorough than what I was able to scheme out. In discussing the book, I lie under the serious difficulty of not being able to read it ; but, judging from what Professor Adamson has written or read to me, and from an examination Preface. xxxix of the diagrams and symbolic parts of the work, I shoukl infer that Gosseii lias been unfortunate in the development of his theory. Instead of dealing, as Cournot and myself have done, with undetermined functions, and introducing the least possible amount of assumption, Gossen assumed, for the sake of simplicity, that economic functions follow a linear law, so that his curves of utility are generally taken as straight lines. This assumption enables him to work out a great quantity of precise formulas and tabular results, which fill many pages of the book. But, inasmuch as the functions of economic science are seldom or never really linear, and usually diverge very far from the straight line, I think that the symbolic and geometric illustra- tions and developments introduced by Gossen must for the most part be put down among the many products of misplaced ingenuity. I may add, in my own behalf, that he does not seem really to reach the equations of exchange as established in this book ; that the theory of capital and interest is wanting ; and that there is a total absence of any resemblance between the working out of the matter, except such as arises from a common basis of truth. The coincidence, however, between the essential ideas of Gossen's system and my own is so striking, that I desire to state distinctly, in the first place, xl Preface. that I never saw nor so much as heard any hint of the existence of Gossen's book before August 1878, and to explain, in the second place, how it was that I did not do so. My unfortunate want of linguistic power has prevented me, in spite of many attempts, from ever becoming familiar enough with German to read a German book. I once managed to spell out with assistance part of the logical lecture notes of Kant ; but that is my sole achievement in German literature. Now this work of Gossen has remained unknown even to most of the great readers of Germany. Professor Adam- son remarks that the work seems to have attracted no attention in Germany. The eminent and learned economist of Amsterdam, Professor N. G. Pierson, writes to me, ' Gossen's book is totally unknown to me. Reseller does not mention it in his very laborious History of Political Economy in Germany. I never saw it quoted ; but I will try to get it. It is very curious that such a remarkable work has remained totally unknown even to a man like Professor Roscher, who has read everything.' Mr. Cliffe Leslie, also, who has made the German Economists his special study, informs me that he was quite unaware of the existence of the book p. • P A copy of Gossen's book will be found in the Library of the British Museum (Press mark 8408, cc). It was not acquired by Preface. xli Under such circumstances it would have been far more probable that I should discover the theory of pleasure and pain, than that I should discoA^er Gossen's book, and I have carefully pointed out, both in the first edition and in this, certain passages of Bentham, Senior, Jennings, and other authors from which my system was, more or less, consciously de- veloped. I cannot claim to be totally indifferent to the rights of priority ; and from the year 1862, when my theory was first published in brief outline, I have often pleased myself with the thought that it was at once a novel and an important theory. From what I have now stated in this preface it is evident that novelty can no longer be attributed to the leading features of the theory. Much is clearly due to Dupuit, and of the rest a great share must be assigned to Gossen. Regret may easily be swallowed up in satisfaction if I succeed eventually in making that understood and valued which has been so sadly neglected. Almost nothing is known to me concerning Gossen ; it is uncertain whether he is living or not. On the title-page he describes himself as Koniglich preussischem Regierungs- Assessor ausser Dienst, which may be translated ' Royal Prussian Govern- that institution until May 24, 1865, as shown by the date stamped upon the copy. xlii Preface. ment Assessor, retired ; ' but the tone of his re- marks here and there seems to. indicate that he was a disappointed if not an injured man. The reception of his one work can have lent no relief to these feelings ; rather it must much have deep- ened them. The book seems to have contained his one cherished theory; for I can find under the name of Gossen no trace of anj'- other pub- lication or scientific memoir whatever. The history of these forgotten works is, indeed, a strange and discouraging one ; but the day must come when the eyes of those who cannot see will be opened. Then will due honour be given to all who like Cournot and Gossen have laboured in a thankless field of human knowledge, and have met with the neglect or ridicule they might well have expected. Not indeed that such men do really work for the sake of honour; they bring forth a theory as the tree brings forth its fruit. It remains for me to refer to the mathematico- economic writings of M. Leon Walras, the Rector of the Academy of Lausanne. It is curious that Lausanne, already distinguished by the early work of Isnard (1781), should recently have furnished such important additions to the science as the Memoirs of Walras. For important they are, not only because they complete and prove that which was Preface. xliii before published elsewhere in the works described above, but because they contain a third or fourth independent discovery of the principles of the theory. If we are to trace out 'the filiation of ideas ' by which M. Walras was led to his theory, we should naturally look back to the work of his father, Auguste Walras, published at Paris in 1831, and entitled ' De la Nature de la Richesse, et de I'origine de la Valeur/ In this work we find, it is true, no distinct recognition of the mathematical method, but the analysis of value is often acute and philosophic. The principal point of the work more- over is true, that value depends upon rarety — ' La valeur,' says Auguste Walras, ' derive de la rarete.' Now it is precisely upon this idea of the degree of rarety of commodities that Leon Walras bases his system. The fact that some four or more indepen- dent writers such as Dupuit, Gossen, Walras, and myself, should in such different ways have reached substantially the same views of the fundamental ideas of economic science, cannot but lend great probability, not to say approximate certainty, to those views. I am glad to hear that M. Walras intends to bring out a new edition of his Mathe- matico-Economic Memoirs, to which the attention of my readers is invited. The titles of his publi- cations will be found in the Appendix I. xliv Preface. The works of Von Thtinen and of several other German economists contain mathematical investi- gations of much interest and importance. A con- siderable number of such works will be found noted in the list, which, however, is especially defective as regards German literature. I regret that I am not able to treat this branch of the subject in an adequate manner. My bibliographical list shows that in recent 3^ears, that is to say since the year 1873, there has been a great increase in the number of mathe- matico-economic writings. The names of Fontan- eau, Walras, Avigdor, Lefevre, Petersen, Boccardo, recur time after time. In such periodicals as the Journal des Actuaires Fran^ais, or the National- Oekonomisk Tidsskrift — a journal so creditable to the energy and talent of the Danish Economic School — the mathematical theory of Economics is treated as one of established interest and truth, with which readers would naturally be acquainted. In England we have absolutely no periodical in which such discussions could be conducted. The reader will not fail to remark that it is into the hands of French, Italian, Danish, or Dutch writers that this most important subject is rapidly passing. They will develop that science which only excites ridicule and incredulity among the followers of Preface. xlv Mill and Ricardo. There are just a few English mathematicians, such as Fleeming Jenkin, George Darwin, Alfred Marshall, or H. D. Macleod, and one or two Americans lilve Professor Simon Newcomb, who venture to write upon the obnoxious subject of mathematico-economic science. I ought to add, however, that at Cambridge (England) the mathe- matical treatment of Economics is becoming gra- dually recognised owing to the former influence of Mr. Alfred Marshall, now the principal of University College, Bristol, whose ingenious mathematico- economic problems, expounded moi^e geometrico^ have just been privately printed at Cambridge. If we overlook Hutcheson, who did not expressly write on Economics, the earliest mathematico- economic author seems to be the Italian Ceva, whose works have just been brought to notice in the Giornale degli Economisti (see 1878, Nicolini). Ceva wrote in the early part of the 18th century, but I have as yet no further information about him. The next author in the list is the celebrated Beccaria, who printed a very small, but distinctly mathematical, tract on Taxation as early as 1765. Italians were thus first in the field. The earliest English work of the kind yet discovered is an anonymous ' Essay on the Theory of Money,' pub- lished in London in 1771, five years before the era xlvi Preface. of the 'Wealth of Nations.' Though crude and absurd in some parts, it is not devoid of interest and ability, and contains a distinct and partially valid attempt to establish a mathematical theory of currency. This remarkable Essay is, so far as I know, wholly forgotten and almost lost in England. Neither MacCulloch nor any other English econo- mist known to me, mentions the work. I discovered its existence a few months ago by accidentally finding a copy on a bookseller's stall. But it shames an Englishman to learn that English works thus unknown in their own country are known abroad, and I owe to Professor Luigi Cossa, of the University of Pavia, the information that the Essay was written by Major -General Henry Lloyd, an author of some merit in other branches of litera- ture. Signer Cossa's excellent ' Guide alia Studio di Economia Politica,' a concise but judiciously written text-book, is well qualified to open our eyes as to the insular narrowness of our economic learning. It is a book of a kind much needed by our students of Economics, and I wish that it could be published in an English dress. From this bibliographical survey emerges the wholly unexpected result, that the mathematical treatment of Economics is coeval with the science itself. The notion tliat there is any novelty or Preface. xlvii originality in the application of mathematical methods or symhols must he dismissed altogether. While there have been political economists there has always been a certain number who with vari- ous success have struck into the unpopular but right path. The unfortunate and discouraging aspect of the matter is the complete oblivion into which this part of the literature of Economics has always fallen, oblivion so complete that each mathematico-economic writer has been obliged to begin almost de novo. It is with the purpose of preventing for the future as far as I can such ignorance of previous exertions, that I have spent so much pains upon this list of books. I should add that in arranging the list I have followed, very imperfectly, the excellent example set by Professor Mansfield Merriman, of the Sheffield Scientific School of Yale College, in his ' List of Writings relating to the Method of Least Squares 2, p, q, etc., is an accident, or a matter of mere convenience. If we had no regard to trouble and prolixity, the most complicated mathematical pro- blems might be stated in ordinary language, and their solution might be traced out by words. In fact, some distinguished mathematicians have shown a liking for getting rid of their symbols, and expressing their arguments and results in language as nearly as possible approximating to that in common use. In his ' Sj^steme du Monde,' Laplace attempted to describe the truths of physi- cal astronomy in common language ; and Thomson and Tait interweave their great ' Treatise on Introduction. 5 Natural Philosophy' with an interpretation in ordinary words, supposed to be within the com- l^rehension of general readers c. These attempts, however distinguished and inge- nious their authors, soon disclose the inherent defects of the grammar and dictionary for ex- pressing complicated relations. The symbols of mathematical books are not different in nature from language ; they form a perfected system of lan- guage, adapted to the notions and relations which we need to express. They do not constitute the mode of reasoning they embody; they merely facilitate its exhibition and comprehension. If, then, in Economics, we have to deal with quantities and complicated relations of quantities, we must reason mathematically; we do not render the science less mathematical by avoiding the sym- bols of algebra, — we merely refuse to employ, in a very imperfect science, much needing every kind of assistance, that apparatus of appro- priate signs which is found indispensable in other sciences. c The large type or non-symbolic portion of the Treatise has been reprinted in a separate volume, under the title ' Elements of Natural Philosophy, by Professors Sir W. Thomson and P. Gr. Tait. Part I. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1873.' But the authors appear to me inaccurate in describing this work, in the preface, as non-mathematical. It is comparatively non-symbolic, but equally mathematical with the complete Treatise. 6 The Theory of Political Economy. Confusion hetiveen Mathematical and Exact Sciences. Many persons entertain a prejudice against mathe- matical language, arising out of a confusion between the ideas of a mathematical science and an exact science. They think that we must not pretend to calculate unless we have the precise data which will enable us to obtain a precise answer to our calculations ; but, in reality, there is no such thing as an exact science, except in a comparative sense. Astronomy is more exact than other sciences, be- cause the position of a planet or star admits of close measurement ; but, if we examine the methods of physical astronomy, we find that they are all approximate. Every solution involves hypotheses which are not really true : as, for instance, that the earth is a smooth, homogeneous spheroid. Even the apparently simpler problems in statics or dynamics are only hypothetical approximations to the truth ^. We can calculate the effect of a crow-bar, provided it be perfectly inflexible and liave a perfectly hard fulcrum, — which is never the case e. The data are d This subject of the approximate character of quantitative science is pursued, at some length, in my ' Principles of Science,' chapter xxi, on ' The Theory of Approximation/ and elsewhere in the same work. e Thomson and Tait's ' Treatise on Natural Philosophy,' vol. i. p. 337. Introduction. 7 almost wholly deficient for the complete solution of any one i^roblem in natural science. Had physicists waited until their data were perfectly precise before they brought in the aid of mathe- matics, we should have still been in the age of science which terminated at the time of Galileo. When we examine the less precise physical sciences, we find that physicists are, of all men, most bold in developing their mathematical theories in advance of their data. Let any one who doubts this examine Airy's ' Theory of the Tides,' as given in the Encyclopsedia Metropolitana ; he will there find a wonderfully complex mathematical theory which is confessed by its author to be incapable of exact or even approximate application, because the results of the various and often unknown contours of the seas do not admit of numerical verification. In this and many other cases we have mathe- matical theory without the data requisite for precise calculation. The greater or less accuracy attainable in a mathematical science is a matter of accident, and does not affect the fundamental character of the science. There can be but two classes of sciences — those which are simply logical, and those which, besides being logiccd, are also rnathematiccd. If there be any science which determines merely Avhether a thing be or be not — whether an event will happen, or will not happen — it must be a purely logical 8 The Theory of Political Economy. science ; but if the thing may be greater or less, or the event may happen sooner or later, nearer or farther, then quantitative notions enter, and the science must be mathematical in nature, by what- ever name we call it. Capability of Exact Measurement. Many will object, no doubt, that the notions which we treat in this science are incapable of any measurement. We cannot weigh, nor gauge, nor test the feelings of the mind ; there is no unit of labour, or suffering, or enjoyment. It might thus seem as if a mathematical theory of Economics would be necessarily deprived for ever of numerical data. I answer, in the first place, that nothing is less warranted in science than an uninquiring and un- hoping spirit. In matters of this kind, those who despair are almost invariably those who have never tried to succeed. A man might be despondent had he spent a lifetime on a difficult task without a gleam of encouragement ; but the popular opinions on the extension of mathematical theory tend to deter any man from attempting tasks which, how- ever difficult, ought, some day, to be achieved. If we trace the history of other sciences, we gather no lessons of discouragement. In the case of almost everything which is now exactly Introduction. 9 measured, we can go back to the age when the vaguest notions prevailed. Previous to the time of Pascal, who would have thought of measuring douU and belief f Wlio could have conceived that the investigation of petty games of chance would have led to the creation of perhaps the most sub- lime branch of mathematical science — the theory of probabilities ? There are sciences which, even within the memory of men now living, have be- come exactly quantitative. While Quesnay and Bandeau and Le Trosne and Condillac were found- ing Political Economy in France, and Adam Smith in England, electricity was a vague phenomenon, which was known, indeed, to be capable of be- coming greater or less, but was not measured nor calculated : it is within the last forty or fifty years that a mathematical theory of electricity, founded on exact data, has been established. We now enjoy precise quantitative notions concerning heat, and can measure the temperature of a body to less than j^ part of a degree Centigrade. Compare this precision with that of the earliest makers of thermometers, the Academicians del Cimento, who used to graduate their instruments by placing them in the sun's rays to obtain a point of fixed tem- perature f f See ' Principles of Science,' chapter xiii, on ' Tlie Exact Measure- ment of Phenomena,' 3rd Ed., p. 270. 10 The Theory of Political Economy. De Morgan excellently saidg, 'As to some mag- nitudes, the clear idea of measurement comes soon : in the case of length, for example. But let us take a more difficult one, and trace the steps by which we acquire and fix the idea : say weight. What weight is, we need not know We know it as a magnitude before we give it a name : any child can discover the more that there is in a bullet, and the less that there is in a cork of twice its size. Had it not been for the simple contrivance of the balance, which we are well assured (how, it matters not here) enables us to poise equal weights against one another, that is, to detect equality and inequality, and thence to as- certain how many times the greater contains the less, w^e might not to this day have had much clearer ideas on the subject of weight, as a mag- nitude, than we have on those of talent, prudence, or self-denial, looked at in the same light. All who are ever so little of geometers will remember the time when their notions of an angle, as a magni- tude, were as vague as, perhaj)s more so than, those of a moral quality ; and they will also re- member the steps by which this vagueness became clearness and precision.' Now there can be no doubt that j)leasure, pain, labour, utility, value, Avealth, money, capital, &c. s 'Formal Logic,' p. 175. Introduction. 11 are all notions admitting of quantity: nay, the whole of our actions in industry and trade certainly depend upon comparing quantities of advantage or disadvantage. Even the theories of moralists have recognised the quantitative character of the subject. Bentham's ' Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation ' is thoroughly mathematical in the character of the method. He tells us ^^ to estimate the tendency of an action thus : ' Sum up all the values of all the pleasures on the one side, and those of all the pains on the other. The balance, if it be on the side of pleasure, will give the good tendency of the act upon the whole, with respect to the interests of that individual person ; if on the side of pain, the bad tendency of it upon the whole.' The mathematical character of Bentham's treat- ment of moral science is also well exemplified in his remarkable tract entitled *A Table of the Springs of Action,' printed in 1817, as in p. 3, and elsewhere. ' But where,' the reader will perhaps ask, ' are your numerical data for estimating pleasures and pains in Political Economy ? ' I answer, that my numerical data are more abundant and precise than those possessed by any other science, but that we have not yet known how to employ them. The very abundance of our data is perplexing. There is h Chapter iv, on the ' Value of a lot of Pleasure or Pain, How to be measured,' section v, 5. 12 Tha Theory of Political Econo7ny. not a clerk nor book-keeper in the country who is not engaged in recording numerical facts for the economist. The private-account books, the great ledgers of merchants and bankers and public offices, the share lists, price lists, bank returns, monetary intelligence, Custom-house and other Government returns, are all full of the kind of numerical data required to render Economics an exact mathe- matical science. Thousands of folio volumes of statistical, parliamentary, or other publications await the labour of the investigator. It is partly the very extent and complexity of the informa- tion which deters us from its proper use. But it is chiefly a want of method and completeness in this vast mass of information which prevents our employing it in the scientific investigation of the natural laws of Economics. I hesitate to say that men will ever have the means of measuring directly the feelings of the human heart. A unit of pleasure or of pain is difficult even to conceive ; but it is the amount of these feelings which is continually prompting us to buying and selling, borrowing and lending, labour- ing and resting, producing and consuming ; and it is from the quantitative ejfects of the feelings that vje must estimate their comjKtrative amounts. We can no more know nor measure gravity in its own nature than we can measure a feeling ; but, just as we measure gravity by its effects in the motion Introduction. 13 of a pendulum, so we may estimate the equality or inequality of feelings by the decisions of the human mind. The will is our pendulum, and its oscillations are minutely registered in the price lists of the markets. I know not Avhen we shall have a perfect system of statistics, but the want of it is the only insuperable obstacle in the way of making Economics an exact science. In the absence of complete statistics, the science will not be less mathematical, though it will be immensely less useful than if it were, comparatively speaking, exact. A correct theory is the first step towards improvement, by showing what we need and what we might accomplish. Measurement of Feeling and Motives. Many readers may, even after reading the pre- ceding remarks, consider it quite impossible to create such a calculus as is here contemplated, because Ave have no means of defining and mea- suring quantities of feeling, like we can measure a mile, or a right angle, or any other physical quantity. I have granted that we can hardly form the conception of a unit of pleasure or pain, so that the numerical expression of quantities of feeling seems to be out of the question. But we only employ units of measurement in other thiugs to facilitate the comparison of quantities; and if we can compare the quantities directly, we do not / 14 The Theory of Political Economy. need the units. Now the mind of an individual is the balance which makes its own comparisons, and is the final judge of quantities of feeling. As Mr. Bain saj^s^ ' It is only an identical proposi- tion to affirm that the greatest of two pleasures, or what appears such, sways the resulting action ; for it is tliis resulting action that alone deter- mines which is the greater.' Pleasures, in short, are, for the time being, as the mind estimates them ; so that we cannot make a choice, or manifest the will in any way, without indicating thereby an excess of pleasure in some direction. It is true that the mind often hesitates and is perplexed in making a choice of great importance : this indicates either varying estimates of the motives, or a feeling of incapacity to grasp the quantities concerned. I should not think of claiming for the mind any accurate power of measuring and adding and subtracting feelings, so as to get an exact balance. We can seldom or never affirm that one pleasure is an exact multiple of another ; but the reader who carefully criticises the following theory will find that it seldom involves the comparison of quantities of feeling differing much in amount. The theory turns upon those critical points where pleasures are nearly, if not quite, equal. I never attempt to estimate the whole pleasure gained by purchasing i ' The Emotions and the Will,' 1st Ed., p. 447. Introduction. 15 a commodity; the theory merely expresses that, when a man has purchased enough, he would de- rive equal pleasure from the possession of a small quantity more as he Avould from the money price of it. Similarly, the whole amount of pleasure that a man gains by a day's labour hardly enters into the question ; it is when a man is doubtful whether to increase his hours of labour or not, that we discover an equality between the pain of that ex- tension and the pleasure of the increase of pos- sessions derived from it. The reader will find, again, that there is never, in any single instance, an attempt made to com- pare the amount of feeling in one mind with that in another. I see no means by which such com- parison can be accomplished. The susceptibility of one mind may, for what we know, be a thousand times greater than that of another. But, provided that the susceptibility was different in a like ratio in all directions, we should never be able to dis- cover the difference. Every mind is thus in- scrutable to every other mind, and no common denominator of feeling seems to be possible. But even if we could compare the feelings of different minds, we should not need to do so ; for one mind only affects another indirectly. Every event in the outward world is represented in the mind by a corresponding motive, and it is by the balance of these that the will is swayed. But the motive in 16 The Theory of Political Economy. one mind is weighed only against other motives in the same mind, never against the motives in other minds. Each person is to other persons a portion of the outward world — the non-ego as the metaphysicians call it. Thus motives in the mind of A may give rise to phenomena which may he represented by motives in the mind of B ; but between A and B there is a gulf Hence the weighing of motives must always be confined to the bosom of the individual. I must here point out that, though the theory presumes to investigate the condition of a mind, and bases upon this investigation the whole of Economics, practically it is an aggregate of indi- viduals which will be treated. The general forms of the laws of Economics are the same in the case of individuals and nations ; and, in reality, it is a law operating in the case of multitudes of indi- viduals which gives rise to the aggregate repre- sented in the transactions of a nation. Practically, however, it is quite impossible to detect the opera- tion of general laws of this kind in the actions of one or a few individuals. The motives and condi- tions are so numerous and complicated, that -the resulting actions have the appearance of caprice, and are beyond the analytic powers of science. With every increase in the price of such a com- modity as sugar, we ought, theoretically speaking, to find every person reducing his consumption by Introduction. 17 a small amount, and according to some regular law. In realit}^ many persons would make no change at all; a few, probably, would go to the extent of dispensing with tlie use of sugar alto- gether so long as its cost continued to be excessive. It would be by examining the average consump- tion of sugar in a large population that we might detect a continuous variation, connected with the variation of price by a constant law. It would not, of necessit}'', happen that the law would be exactly the same hi the case of aggregates and individuals, unless all those individuals were of the same character and position as regards wealth and habits ; but there would be a more or less regular law to w^hich the same kind of forniidtie would apply. The use of an average, or, what is the same, an aggregate result, depends upon the high probability that accidental and disturbing causes will operate, in the long run, as often in one direc- tion as the other, so as to neutralise each other. Provided that we have a sufficient number of independent cases, we may then detect the effect of any tendency, however slight. Accordingly, ques- tions which appear, and perhaps are, quite indeter- minate as regards individuals, may be capable of exact investigation and solution in regard to great masses and wide averages ^. ^ Concerning the meaning and employment of Averages, see ' Principles of Science,' cbaptcr xvi, on ' The Method of Means.' C 18 Tlie Theory of Political Economy. Logical Method of Economics. The logical method of Economics as a branch of the social sciences is a subject on which much might be written, and on which very diverse opinions are held at the present day (1879). In this place I can only make a few brief remarks. I think that John Stuart Mill is substantially correct in considering our science to be a case of what he calls i the Physical or Concrete Deductive Method ; he considers that we may start from some obvious psychological law, as for instance, that a greater gain is preferred to a smaller one, and we may then reason downwards, and predict the phenomena which will be produced in society by such a law. The causes in action in any com- munity are, indeed, so complicated that we shall seldom be able to discover the undisturbed effects of any one law, but, so far as we can analyse the statistical phenomena observed, we obtain a verifi- cation of our reasoning. This view of the matter is almost identical with that adopted by the late Professor Cairnes in his Lectures on ' The Character and Logical Method of Political Economy ni.' The principal objection to be urged against this treatment of the subject, is that Mill has described the Concrete Deductive Method as if it were one 1 ' System of Logic,' book vi. chap. ix. section 3. m Second Edition (Macmillan), 1875. Introduction. 19 of many inductive methods. In my Elementary Lessons in Logic (p. 258), I proposed to call the method the Complete Method, as implying that it combines observation, deduction, and induction in the most complete and perfect way. But I sub- sequently arrived at the conclusion that this so- called Deductive Method is no special method at all, but simply induction itself in its essential form. As I have fully explained^, Induction is an inverse operation, the inverse of Deduction, and can only be performed by the use of deduction. Possessing certain facts of observation, we frame an hypothesis as to the laws governing those facts ; we reason from the hypothesis deductively to the results to be expected ; and we then ex- amine these results in connection with the facts in question; coincidence confirms the whole reason- ing ; conflict obliges us either to seek for disturbing causes, or else to abandon our hypothesis. In this procedure there is nothing peculiar ; when properly understood it is found to be the method of all the inductive sciences. The science of Economics, however, is in some degree peculiar, owing to the fact, pointed out by J. S. Mill and Cairnes, that its ultimate laws are known to us immediately by intuition, or, at any rate they are furnished to us ready made by other mental or physical sciences. That every person " * Principles of Science,' chapters vii, ix, xii, etc. C 2 20 The Theory of Political Economy. will choose the greater apparent good ; that human wants are more or less quickly satiated ; that prolonged labour becomes more and more painful, are a few of the simple inductions on which we can proceed to reason deductively with great con- fidence. From these axioms we can deduce the laws of supply and demand, the laws of that difficult conception, value, and all the intricate results of commerce, so far as data are available. The final agreement of our inferences with a posteriori observations ratifies our method. But unfortunately this verification is often the least satisfactory part of the process, because, as J. S. Mill has fully explained, the circumstances of a nation are infinitely complicated, and we seldom get two or more instances which are comparable. To fulfil the conditions of inductive inquiry, we ought to be able to observe the effects of a cause coming singly into action, while all other causes remain unaltered. Entirely to prove the good effects of Free Trade in England, for example, we ought to have the nation unaltered in every cir- cumstance except the abolition of burdens and restrictions on trade «. But it is obvious that while Free Trade was being introduced into England, many other causes of prosperity were also coming into action — the progress of invention, the con- struction of railways, the profuse consumption of " ' Piiiicijjles of Science/ chapter xix, on ' Expeiinieut.' Introduction. 21 coal, the extension of the colonies, etc., etc. Although, then, the heneficent results of Free Trade are great and unquestionable, they could liardly be proved to exist a i^steriori ; they are to be believed because deductive reasoning from pre- mises of almost certain truth, leads us confidently to expect such results, and there is nothing in experience which in the least conflicts Avith our , expectations. In spite of occasional revulsions, due ; to periodical fluctuations depending on physical causes, the immense prosperity of the country since the adoption of Free Trade, confirms our antici- pations as far as, under complex circumstances, facts are capable of doing so. It will thus be seen that Political Economy tends to be more deductive than many of the physical sciences, in which closely approximate verification is often possible ; but, even so far as the science is inductive, it involves the use of deductive reasoning, as already explained. Within the last year or two, much discussion has been raised concerning the Philosophical Method of Political Economy, by Mr. T. E. Cliffe Leslie's interesting Essay on that subject P, as also by the recent address of Dr.' Ingram at the Dublin Meeting of the British Association*!. I quite concur with these able and eminent economists so far as to < P ' Hermathena,' No. iv, Dublin, 1876, p. 1. 1 ' Statistical Journal,' January, 1879, vol. xli. p. 602. Also reprint by Longmans, 1878. 22 The Theory of Political Economy. allow that historical investigation is of great import- ance in Social Science. But, instead of converting our present science of economics into an historical science, utterly destroying it in the process, I would perfect and develope what we already possess, and at the same time erect a new branch of social science on an historical foundation. This new branch of science, on which many learned men, such as Richard Jones, de Laveleye, Lavergne, Cliffe Leslie, Sir Henry Maine, Thorold Rogers, have already laboured, is doubtless a portion of what Herbert Spencer calls Sociology, the Science of the Evolution of Social Relations. Political Economy is in a chaotic state at present, because there is need of subdividing a too extensive sphere of knowledge. Quesnay, Sir James Steuart, Bandeau, Le Trosne, and Condillac first differentiated Econo- mics sufficiently to lead it to be regarded as a distinct science; it has since been loaded with great accretions due to the progress of investigation. It is only by subdivision, by recognising a branch of Economic Sociology, together possibly with two or three other branches of statistical, j ural, or social science, that we can rescue our science from its confused state. I have already endeavoured to shew the need of this step in a lecture delivered at the University College, in October, 1876r, and r ' Fortnightly Review,' December 1876 ; ' The Future of Political Economy.' Introduction. 23 I shall perhaps have a future opportunity of en- larging more upon the subject. To return, however, to the topic of the present work, the theory here given may be described as the mecha7iics of utility and self-interest. Oversights may have been committed in tracing out its de- tails, but in its main features this theory must be the true one. Its method is as sure and demon- strative as that of kinematics or statics, nay, almost as self-evident as are the elements of Euclid, when the real meaning of the formulae is fully seized. I do not hesitate to say, too, that Economics might be gradually erected into an exact science, if only commercial statistics were far more com- plete and accurate than they are at present, so that the formulae could be endowed with exact meaning by the aid of numerical data. These data Avould consist chiefly in accurate accounts of the quantities of goods possessed and consumed by the community, and the prices at which they are ex- changed. There is no reason whatever why we should not have those statistics, except the cost and trouble of collecting them, and the unwilling- ness of persons to afford information. The quanti- ties themselves to be measured and registered are most concrete and precise. In a few cases we already have information approximating to com- pleteness, as when a commodity like tea, sugar. 24 The Theory of Political Economy, coffee, or tobacco is wholly imported. But when articles are untaxed, and partly produced within the countr}'-, we have yet the vaguest notions of the quantities consumed. Some slight success is now, at last, attending the ejfforts to gather agri- cultural statistics; and the great need felt by men engaged in the cotton and other trades to obtain accurate accounts of stocks, imports, and consumption, will probably lead to the publication of far more complete information than we have hitherto enjoyed. The deductive science of Economics must be verified and rendered useful by the purely empi- rical science of Statistics. Theory must be invested with the reality and life of fact. But the difficul- ties of this union are immensely great, and I appreciate them quite as much as does Cairnes in his admirable lectures ' On the Character and Logical Method of Political Economy.' I make hardly any attempt to employ statistics in this work, and thus I do not pretend to any numerical precision. But, before we attempt any investiga- tion of facts, we must have correct theoretical notions ; and of what are here presented, I would say, in the words of Hume, in his 'Essay on Com- merce,' ' If false, let them be rejected : but no one has a right to entertain a prejudice against them merely because they are out of the common road.' Introduction. 25 Relation of Economics to Ethics. I Avish to say a, few words, in this place, upon the rchition of Economics to Moral Science. The theory Avhich follows is entirely based on a calculus of pleasure and pain ; and the object of Economics is to maximise happiness by purchasing pleasure, as it were, at the loAvest cost of pain. The language emploj'ed may be open to misapprehension, and it may seem as if pleasures and pains of a gross kind were treated as the all-sufficient motives to guide the mind of man. I have no hesitation in accepting the Utilitarian theory of morals which does uphold the effect upon the happiness of mankind as the criterion of what is right and wrong. But I have never felt that there is anything in that theory to prevent our putting the widest and highest inter- pretation upon the terms used. Jeremy Bentham put forAvard the Utilitarian theory in the most uncompromising manner. Ac- cording to him, whatever is of interest or import- ance to us must be the cause of pleasure or of pain ; and Avhen the terms are used with a suffi- ciently wide meaning, pleasure and pain include all the forces Avhicli drive us to action. They are explicitly or implicitly the matter, of all our cal- culations, and form the ultimate quantities to be treated in all the moral sciences. The words of Bentham on this subject may require some ex- planation and qualification, but they are too grand 26 The llieory of Political Economy. and too full of truth to be omitted. ' Nature/ he says s, ' has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters — pai^i and j)^easure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do. On the one hand the standard of right and wrong, on the other the chain of causes and effects, are fastened to their throne. Thej govern us in all we do, in all we say, in all we think : every effort we can make to throw off our subjection will serve but to demonstrate and confirm it. In Avords a man may pretend to abjure their empire ; but, in reality, he will remain subject to it all the while. The jorinciiole of utility recognises this subjection, and assumes it for the foundation of that system, the object of which is to rear the fabric of felicity by the hands of reason and of law. Systems which attempt to question it, deal in sounds instead of sense, in caprice instead of reason, in darkness instead of light.' In connection with this j)assage we may take that of Paley, who says, with his usual clear brevity*, 'I hold that pleasures differ in nothing but in continuance and intensity.' The acceptance or non-acceptance of the basis of the Utilitarian doctrine depends, in my mind, 8 ' An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation,' by Jeremy Bentham. Edition of 1823, vol. i. p. 1. t ' Principles of Moral and Political Philosophy,' book i. chap. 6. ItitrodactLO)i. 27 on the exact interpretation of the language used. As it seems to me, the feelings of which a man is capable are of various grades. He is always subject to mere physical pleasure or pain, neces- sarily arising from his bodily wants and suscepti- bilities. He is capable also of mental and moral feelings of several degrees of elevation. A higher motive may rightly overbalance all considerations belonging even to the next lower range of feelings ; but so long as the higher motive does not inter- vene, it is surely both desirable and right that the lower motives should be balanced against each other. Starting with the lowest stage — it is a man's duty, as it is his natural inclination, to earn sufficient food and whatever else may best satisfy his proper and moderate desires. If the claims of a family or of friends fall upon him, it may become desirable that he should deny his own desires and even his physical needs their full customary gratification. But the claims of a family are only a step to a higher grade of duties The safety of a nation, the welfare of great populations, may happen to depend upon his exer- tions, if he be a soldier or a statesman : claims of a very strong kind may now be overbalanced by claims of a still stronger kind. Nor should I venture to say that, at any point, we have reached the highest rank — the supreme motives which should guide the mind. The statesman may 28 Tlie Theory of Political Ecijno]nij. discover a conflict between motives; a measure may promise, as it would seem, the greatest good to great numbers, and yet there may be motives of uprightness and honour that may liinder his pro- moting the measure. How such difficult questions may be rightly determined it is not my purpose to inquire here. The utilitarian theory holds, that all forces influencing the mind of man are pleasures and pains; and Paley went so far as to say, that all pleasures and pains are of one kind only. Mr. Bain has carried out this view to its complete extent, saying ^S ' No amount of complication is ever able to disguise the general fact, that our voluntary activity is moved by only two great classes of stimulants ; either a pleasure or a pain, present or remote, must lurk in every situation that drives us into action.' The question certainly appears to turn upon the language used. Call any motive which attracts us to a certain course of conduct, pleasure ; and call any motive which deters us from that conduct, jmin ; and it becomes impossible to deny that all actions are governed by pleasure and pain. But it then becomes indis- pensable to admit that a single higher pleasure will sometimes neutralise a vast extent and con- tinuance of lower pains. It seems hardly possible to admit Paley's statement, except with an inter- " ' The Emotions and the Will,' 1st Ed. p. 460. Introduction. 29 pretation that would probably reverse his intended meaning. ^lotives and feelings are certainly of the same kind to the extent that we are able to weigh them against each other ; but they are, neverthe- less, almost incomparable in power and authority. My present purpose is accomplished in pointing- out this hierarchy of feeling, and assigning a proper place to the pleasures and pains with which the Economist deals. It is the lowest rank of feelings which we here treat. The calculus of utility aims at supplying the ordinary wants of man at the least cost of labour. Each labourer, in the absence of other motives, is supposed to devote his energy to the accumulation of wealth. A higher calculus of moral right and wrong would be needed to show how he may best employ that wealth for the good of others as well as himself. But when that higher calculus gives no prohibition, we need the lower calculus to gain us the utmost good in matters of moral indifference. There is no rule of morals to forbid our making two blades of grass grow instead of one, if, by the wise expenditure of labour, we can do so. And we may certainly sa}', with Francis Bacon, ' while philosophers are disputing whether virtue or pleasure be the proper aim of life, do you provide yourself with the instruments of either.' CHAPTER II. THEORY OF PLEASURE AND PAIN. Pleasure and Pain as Quantities. Proceeding to consider how pleasure and pain can be estimated as magnitudes, we must un- doubtedly accept what Bentham has laid down upon this subject. 'To a person,' he says'\ 'con- sidered hy himself, the value of a pleasure or pain, considered hy itself, Avill be greater or less according to the four following circumstances : — (1) Its intensity. (2) Its duration. (3) Its certainty or uncertainty. (4) Its propinquity or remoteness. ^ ' An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation, 2nd Ed., 1823, vol. i. p. 49. The earliest writer, w\\o, so far as I know, has treated Pleasure and Pain in a definitely quantitative manner, is Francis Hutcheson, in his 'Essay on the Nature and Conduct of the Passions and Affections/ 1728, pp. 34-43, 126, etc. Theory of Pleasure and Pain. 31 These are the circumstances which are to be considered in estimating a pleasure or a pain considered each of them by itself.' Bentham^ goes on to consider three other cir- cumstances which relate to the ultimate and complete result of any act or feeling ; these ai'e — (5) Fecundity, or the chance a feeling has of being followed by feelings of the same kind ; that is, pleasures, if it be a pleasure ; pains, if it be a pain. (6) Purity, or the chance it has of not being followed by feelings of an opposite kind. And (7) Extent, or the number of persons to whom it extends, and who are affected by it. These three last circumstances are of high im- portance as regards the theory of morals ; but they will not enter into the more simple and restricted problem which we attempt to solve in Economics. A feeling, Avhether of pleasure or of pain, must be regarded as having two dimensions, or modes of varying in regard to quantity. Every feeling must last some time, and it may last a longer or shorter time ; while it lasts, it may be more or less acute and intense. If in two cases the duration of feeling is the same, that case will b Introduction, p. 50. 32 The Theory of Political Economy. produce the greater quantity which is the more intense ; or we may say that, with the same dura- tion, the quantity will be proportional to the intensity. On the other hand, if the intensity of a feeling were to remain constant, the quantity of feelino: would increase with its duration. Two days of the same degree of happiness are to be twice as much desired as one day ; two days of suffering are to be twice as much feared. If the intensity ever continued fixed, the whole quantity would be found by multiplyiug the number of units of intensity into the number of units of duration. Pleasure and pain, then, are quantities possessing two dimensions, just as superficies possesses the two dimensions of length and breadth. In almost every case, however, the intensity of feeling will change from moment to moment. Incessant variation characterises our states of mind, and this is the source of the main difficul- ties of the subject. Nevertheless, if these varia- tions can be traced out at all, or any approach to method and law can be detected, it will be possible to form a conception of the resulting quantity of feeling. We may ijnagine that the intensity changes at the end of every minute, but remains constant in tlie intervals. The quantity during each minute may l)e represented, as in Fig. I, by a rectangle whose base is supposed to correspond to the duration of Theory of Pleasure and Pain. 33 a minute, and whose height is proportional to the intensity of the feeling during the minute in Bg.L question. Along the line ox we measure time, and along parallels to the perpendicular line oij we measure intensity. Each of the rectangles between pm and qn represents the feeling of one minute. The aggregate quantity of feeling generated during tlie time mn will then be represented by the aggregate area of the rectangles between pm and qn. In this case the intensity of the feeling is supposed to be gradually declining. But it is an artificial assumption that the in- tensity would vary by sudden steps and at regular intervals. The error thus introduced will not be great if the intervals of time are very short, and will be less the shorter the intervals are made. To avoid all error, we must imagine the intervals of time to be infinitely short ; that is, we must treat the intensity as varying continuously. Thus tlie proper representation of the variation of feeling D 34 The Theo7'y of Political Economy. is found in a curve of more or less complex character. In Fig. II the height of each point of Fiq.E the curve pq, above the horizontal line ox, indicates the intensity of feeling in a moment of time ; and the whole quantity of feeling generated in the time mn is measured by the area bounded by the lines jpm, qn, mn, and pq. The feeling belonging to any other time, ma, will be measured by the space mabp cut off by the perpendicular line ah. Pain the Negative of Pleasure. It will be readily conceded that pain is the opposite of pleasure ; so that to decrease pain is to increase pleasure ; to add pain is to decrease pleasure. Thus we may treat pleasure and pain as positive and negative quantities are treated in algebra. The algebraic sum of a series of pleasures and pains will be obtained by adding the pleasures together and the pains together, and then striking Theory of Pleasure and Pain. 35 the balance by subtracting the smaller amount from the greater. Our object will always be to maximise the resulting sum in the direction of pleasure, which we may fairly call the positive direction. This object we shall accomplish by ac- cepting everything, and undertaking every action of which the resulting pleasure exceeds the pain which is undergone ; we must avoid every object or action which leaves a balance in the other direction. The most important parts of the theory will turn upon the exact equality, without regard to sign, of the pleasure derived from the possession of an object, and the pain encountered in its acquisition. I am glad, therefore, to quote the following pas- sage from Mr. Bahi's treatise on 'The Emotions and the Will c,' in which he exactly expresses the opposition of pleasure and pain : — ' When pain is followed by pleasure, there is a tendency in the one, more or less, to neutralise the other. When the pleasure exactly assuages the pain, we say that tlie two are equivalent, or equal in amount, although of opposite nature, like hot and cold, positive and negative ; and when two different kinds of pleasure have the power of satiating the same amount of pain, there is fair ground for pronouncing them of equal emotional power. Just as acids are pro- nounced equivalent when in amount sufficient to « First Edition, p. 30. D 2 36 The Theory of Political Economy. neutralise the same portion of alkali, and as heat is estimated bj the quantity of snow melted by it, so pleasures are fairly compared as to their total efficacy on the mind, by the amount of pain that they are capable of submerging. In this sense there may be an effective estimate of degree.' Anticipated Feeling. Bentham has stated ^\ that one of the main ele- ments in estimating the force of a pleasure or pain is its propinquity or remoteness. It is certain that a very large part of what we experience in life depends not on the actual circumstances of the moment so much as on the anticipation of future events. As Mr. Bain says ^, ' The foretaste of i:)leasure is pleasure begun : every actual delight casts before it a corresponding ideal.' Every one must have felt that the enjoyment actually expe- rienced at any moment is but limited in amount, and usually fails to answer to the anticipations which have been formed. 'Man never is but always to be blest ' is a correct description of our ordinary state of mind ; and there is little doubt that, in minds of much intelligence and foresight, the greatest force of feeling and motive arises from the anticipation of a long-continued future. ^ See above, p. 30. « ' The Emotions and the AVill/ First Edition, p. 74. Theory of Pleasure and Pain. 37 Now, between the actual ainoiiiit of feeling antici- pated and that which is felt there must be some natural relation, very varial)lc no doubt according to circumstances, the intellectual standing of the race, or the character of the individual ; and yet subject to some general laws of variation. The intensity of present anticipated feeling must, to use a mathematical expression, be some fmiciion of the future actual feeling and of the intervening time, and it must increase as we approach the moment of realisation. The change, again, must be less rapid the further we are from the moment, and more rapid as we come nearer to it. An event which is to happen a year hence affects us on the average about as much one day as another; but an event of importance, which is to take place three days hence, will probably affect us on each of the intervening days more acutely than the last. This po\^'er of anticipation must have a large influence in Economics; for upon it is based all accumulation of stocks of commodity to be con- sumed at a future time. That class or race of men who have the most foresight will work most for the future. The untutored savage, like the child, is wholly occupied with the pleasures and the troubles of the moment ; the morrow is dimly felt ; the limit of his horizon is but a few days off. The wants of a future 3^ear, or of a lifetime, are wholly unforeseen. But, in a state of civilisation, a vague 38 The Theory of Political Economy. though powerful feeling of the future is the main incentive to industry and saving. The cares of the moment are but ripples on the tide of achievement and hope. We may safely call that man happy who, however lowly his position and limited his possessions, can always hope for more than he has, and can feel that every moment of exertion tends to realise his aspirations. He, on the contrary, who seizes the enjoyment of the passing moment with- out regard to coming times, must discover sooner or later, that his stock of pleasure is on the wane, and that even hope begins to fail. Uncertainty of Future Events. In admitting the force of anticipated feeling, we are compelled to take account of the uncertainty of all future events. We ought never to estimate the value of that which may or may not happen as if it would certainly happen. When it is as likely as not that I shall receive £100, the chance is worth but £50, because if, for a great many times in succession, I purchase the chance at this rate, I shall almost certainly neither lose nor gain. The test of correct estimation of probabilities is that the calculations agree with fact on the average. If we apply this rule to all future interests, we must reduce our estimate of any feeling in the ratio of the numbers expressing the probability of its occurrence. If the probability is only one in ten Theory of Pleasure and Pain, 39 that I shall have a certain day of pleasure, I ought to anticipate the pleasure with one-tenth of the force which would belong to it if certain. In select- ing a course of action which depends on uncertain events, as, in fact, does everything in life, I should multiply the quantity of feeling attaching to every future event by the fraction denoting its proba- bility. A great casualty, which is very unlikely to happen, may not be so important as a slight casualty which is nearly sure to happen. Almost unconsciously we make calculations of this kind more or less accurately in all the ordinary affairs of life ; and in systems of life, fire, marine or other insurance, we carry out the calculations to great perfection. In all industry directed to future pur- poses, we must take similar account of our want of knowledge of what is to be. CHAPTER III. T H E 11 Y OF UTILITY Definition of Terms. Pleasure and pain are undoubtedly the ultimate objects of the Calculus of Economics. To satisfy our wants to the utmost with the least effort — to procure the greatest amount of what is desirable at the expense of the least that is undesirable - — in other words, to maximise pleasure, is the problem of Economics. But it is convenient to transfer our attention as soon as possible to the physical objects or actions which are the source to us of pleasures and pains. A very large part of the labour of any community is spent upon the production of the ordinary necessaries and conve- niences of life, such as food, clothing, buildings, utensils, furniture, ornaments, &c. ; and the aggre- gate of these things, therefore, is the immediate object of our attention. Theonj of Utility. 41 It is desirable to introduce at once, and to define, some terms which facilitate the expression of the Principles of Economics. By a commodity we shall ^ understand any object, substance, action or service, which can afford pleasure or ward off pain. The name >vas originally abstract, and denoted the quality of anything by which it was capable of serving- man. Having acquired, by a common process of confusion, a concrete signification, it will be well to retain the word entirely for that signification, and employ the term utility to denote ^J the abstract quality whereby an object serves our purposes, and becomes entitled to rank as a com- modity. Whatever can i)roduce pleasure or pre- vent pain may possess utility. J.-B. Say has correctl}^ and briefly defined utility as ' la faculte qu'ont les choses de pouvoir servir a I'homme, de quelque maniere que ce soit.' The food which prevents the pangs of hunger, the clothes which fend off the cold of winter, possess incontestable utility; but we must beware of restricting the meaning of the word by any moral considerations. An3'thing which an individual is found to desire and to labour for must be assumed to possess for him utility. In the science of Economics we treat men not as they ought to l)e, but as they are. Bentham, in establishing the foundations of Moral Science in his great ' Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation' (p. 3), thus 42 The Theory of Political Economy. comprehensively defines the term in question : — * By utility is meant that property in any object, whereby it tends to produce benefit, advantage, pleasure, good, or happiness (all this, in the present case, comes to the same thing), . or (what comes again to the same thing) to prevent the happening of mischief, pain, evil, or unhappiness to the party whose interest is considered/ This perfectly expresses the meaning of the word in Economics, provided that the will or inclination of the person immediately concerned is taken as the sole criterion, for the time, of what is or is not useful. The Laivs of Human Want. Economics must be founded upon a full and accurate investigation of the conditions of utility; and, to understand this element, we must neces- sarily examine the wants and desires of man. We, first of all, need a theory of the consumption of wealth. J. S. Mill, indeed, has given an opinion inconsistent with this. ' Political Economy,' he saysf, 'has nothing to do with the consumption of wealth, further than as the consideration of it is inseparable from that of production, or from that of distribution. We know not of any laws of the consumption of wealth, as the subject of a f ' Essays on some unsettled Questions of Political Economy,' p. 132. Theory of Utility. 43 distinct science; they can be no other than the laws of human enjoyment.' But it is surely obvious that Economics does rest upon the laws of human enjoyment ; and that, if those laws are developed by no other science, they must be developed by economists. We labour to produce with the sole object of consuming, and the kinds and amounts of goods produced must be determined with regard to what we want to con- sume. Every manufacturer knows and feels hoAv closely he must anticipate the tastes and needs of his customers : his whole success depends upon it; and, in like manner, the theory of Economics must begin with a correct theory of consumption. Many economists have had a clear perception of this truth. Lord Lauderdale distinctly states &, that ' the great and important step tow^ards ascer- taining the causes of the direction wdiich industry takes in nations .... seems to be the discovery of what dictates the proportion of demand for the various articles which are produced.' Senior, in his admirable treatise, has also recognised this truth, and pointed out what he calls the Laiu of Variety in human requirements. The necessaries of life are so few^ and simple, that a man is soon satisfied in regard to these, and desires to extend his range of enjoyment. His first object is to vary his food ; e ' Inquiry into the Nature and Origin of Public AVealth,' Second Edition, 1819, p. 306. 44 The Theory of Political Economy. but there soon arises the desire of variety and elegance in dress ; and to this succeeds the desire to build, to ornament, and to furnish — tastes which, where they exist, are absolutely insatiable, and seem to increase with every improvement in civilisation ii. Many French economists also have observed that human wants are the ultimate subject-matter of Economics ; Bastiat, for instance, in his ' Harmonies of Political Economy,' says i, ' Wants, Efforts, Satis- faction — this is the circle of Political Economy.' In still later years, Courcelle-Seneuil actually commenced his treatise with a definition of tvant — 'Le besoin economique est un desir qui a pour but la possession et la jouissance d'un objet materiel i\' And I conceive that he has given the best possible statement of the problem of Econo- mics when he expresses its object as ' a satisfaire nos besoins avec la moindre somme de travail possible 1.' Professor Hearn also begins his excellent treatise, entitled 'Plutology, or the Theory of Efforts to supply Human Wants,' with a chapter in Avhich he '' 'Encyclopaedia Metropolitana,' art. Political Economy, p. 133. Fifth Edition of Eepriiit, p. 11. i ' Harmonies of Political Economy,' translated by P. J. Stirling, 1860, p. 65. ^ 'Traits Th^orique et Pratique d'Economie Politique,' par J. G. Courcelle-Seneuil, 2mc ed., Parip, 1867, torn. i. p. 25. 1 Jh. p. 33. Theory of Utility. 45 considers the nature of the wants impelling man to exertion. The writer, however, who seems to me to have reached the deepest comprehension of the founda- tions of Economics, is T. E. Banfield. His course of Lectures delivered in the University of Cam- bridge in 1844, and published under the title of 'The Organization of Labour,' is highly interest- ing, though not always correct. In the following passage "^ he profoundly points out that the scientific basis of Economics is in a theory of con- sumption : I need make no excuse for quoting this passage at full length. 'The lower wants man experiences in common with brutes. The cravings of hunger and thirst, the effects of heat and cold, of drought and damp, he feels with more acuteness than the rest of the animal world. His sufferings are doubtless sharp- ened by the consciousness that he has no right to be subject to such inflictions. Experience, however, shows that privations of various kinds affect men differently in degree according to the circumstances in which they are placed. For some men the priva- tion of certain enjoyments is intolerable, whose loss is not even felt by others. Some, again, sacrifice all that others hold dear for the grati- fication of longings and aspirations that are incomprehensible to their neighbours. Upon this ™ Second Edition, p. H. 46 The Theory of Political Econoiny. complex foundation of low wants and high aspira- tions the Political Economist has to build the theory of production and consumption. ' An examination of the nature and intensity of man's wants shows that this connection between i them gives to Political Economy its scientific basis. The first proposition of the theory of consumption is, that the satisfaction of every lower ivant in the scale creates a desire of a higher character. If the higher desire existed previous to the satisfaction i of the primary want, it becomes more intense I when the latter is removed. The removal of a primary want commonly awakens the sense of more than one secondary privation : thus a full supply of ordinary food not only excites to delicacy in I eating, but awakens attention to clothing. The highest grade in the scale of wants, that of pleasure derived from the beauties of nature and art, is usually confined to men who are exempted from all the lower privations. Thus the demand for, and the consumption of, objects of refined enjoyment has its lever in the facility with which the primary wants are satisfied. This, therefore, is the key to I the true theory of value. Without relative values I in the objects to the acquirement of which we I direct our power, there would be no foundation for Political Economy as a science.' Theory of Utility. 47 Utility is not an Intrinsic Quality. My princij^al work now lies in tracing out the exact nature and conditions of utility. It seems strange indeed that economists have not bestowed more minute attention on a subject which doubtless furnishes the true key to the problem of Economics. In the first place, utility, though a quality of things, is no inherent quality. It is better described as a circumstance of things arising out of their relation to man's requirements. As Senior most accurately says, 'Utility denotes no intrinsic quality in the things which we call useful ; it merely ex- presses their relations to the pains and pleasures of mankind.' We can never, therefore, say abso- lutely that some objects have utility and others have not. The ore lying in the mine, the diamond escaping the eye of the searcher, the wheat lying unreaped, the fruit ungathered for want of con- sumers, have no utility at all. The most wdiole- some and necessary kinds of food are useless unless there are hands to collect and mouths to eat them sooner or later. Nor, when we consider the matter closely, can we say that all portions of the same commodity possess equal utility. Water, for in- stance, may be roughly described as the most useful of all substances. A quart of water per day has the high utility of saving a person from dying in a most distressing manner. Several gallons 48 The Theory of Political Economy. a day may possess much utility for such purposes as cooking and washing; but after an adequate supply is secured for these uses, any additional quantity is a matter of comparative indifference. All that we can say, then, is, that water, up to a certain quantity, is indispensable ; that further quantities will have various degrees of utility ; but that beyond a certain quantity the utility sinks gradually to zero; it may even become negative, that is to say, further supplies of the same sub- stance may become inconvenient and hurtful. Exactly the same considerations apply more or less clearly to every other article. A pound of bread per day supplied to a person saves him from starvation, and has the highest conceivable utility. A second pound per day has also no slight utility : it keeps him in a state of comparative plenty, though it be not altogether indispensable. A third pound would begin to be superfluous. It is clear, then, that utility is not propoi'tional to commodity : the very same articles vary in utility according as we already possess more or less of the same article. The like may be said of other things. One suit of clothes per annum is necessary, a second conveni- ent, a third desirable, a fourth not unacceptable ; but we, sooner or later, reach a point at which further supplies are not desired with any per- ceptible force, unless it be for subsequent use. Theory of Utility. 49 Law of the Variation of Utility, Let us now investigate tliis subject a little more closely. Utility must be considered as measuredl by, or even as actually identical with, the addition I made to a person's happiness. It is a convenient « name for the aggregate of the favourable balance of feeling produced — the sum of the pleasure created and the pain prevented. We must now carefully discriminate between the total utility arising from any commodity and the utility at- taching to any particular portion of it. Thus the total utility of the food we eat consists in main- taining life, and may be considered as infinitely great ; but if we were to sul)tract a tenth part from what we eat daily, our loss would be but slight. We should certainly not lose a tenth part of the whole utility of food to us. It might be doubtful whether we should suffer any harm at all. Let us imagine the whole quantity of food which a person consumes on an average during twenty- four hours to be divided into ten equal parts. If his food be reduced by the last part, he will suffer but little ; if a second tenth part be deficient, he will feel the want distinctly ; the subtraction of the third tenth part will be decidedly injurious ; with every subsequent subtraction of a tenth part his sufferings will be more and more serious, until at length he will ])e upon the verge of starvation. E 50 The Theory of Political Economy. Now, if we call each of the tenth parts an incre- ment, the meaning of these facts is, that each in- crement of food is less necessary, or possesses less utility, than the previous one. To explain this variation of utility, we may make use of space- representations, which I have found convenient in illustrating the laws of Economics in my College lectures during fifteen years past. Let the line occ be used as a measure of the quantity of food, and let it be divided into ten equal parts to correspond to the ten portions of food mentioned above. Upon these equal lines are constructed rectangles, and the area of each rect- angle may l)e assumed to represent the utility of / p p T m^m VI VII Vlll the increment of food corresponding to its base. Thus the utility of the last increment is small, being proportional to the small rectangle on x. As we approach towards o, each increment bears a larger rectangle, that standing upon iii being the largest complete rectangle. The utility of the Theory of Utility. 51 next increment, n, is undefined, as also that of i, since these portions of food would be indispen- sable to life, and their utility, therefore, infinitely great. We can now form a clear notion of the utility of the whole food, or of any part of it ; for we have only to add together the i)roper rectangles. The utility of the first half of the food will be the sum of the rectangles standing on the line oa ; that of the second half will be represented by the sum of the smaller rectangles betAveen a and h. The total utility of the food will be the whole sum of the rectangles, and will be infinitely great. The comparative utility of the several portions is, however, the most important point. Utility may be treated ^^ as a quantity of two dimensions^ one dimension consisting in the quantity of the commodity, and another in the intensity of the effect produced upon the consumer. Now, the quantity of the commodity is measured on the horizontal line ox, and the intensity of utility will be measured by the length of the upright lines, or ordinates. The intensity of utility of the third increment is measured either by pq, or i^q, and its utility is the product of the units in pji multiplied by those in pg-. But the division of the food into ten equal parts " The theory of dimensions of utility is fully stated in a subse- quent section. E 2 52 The Theory of Political Economy. is an arbitrary supposition. If we had taken twenty or a hundred or more equal parts, the same general principle would hold true, namely, that each small portion would be less useful and neces- sary than the last. The law may be considered to hold true theoretically, however small the incre- ments are made ; and in this way we shall at last reach a figure which is undistinguishable from a continuous curve. The notion of infinitely small quantities of food may seem absurd as regards the consumption of one individual ; but, when we con- sider the consumption of a nation as a whole, the consumption may well be conceived to increase or diminish by quantities which are, practically speaking, infinitely small compared with the whole consumption. The laws which we are about to trace out are to be conceived as theoretically true of the individual; they can only be practically verified as regards the aggregate transactions, pro- ductions and consumptions of a large body of people. But the laws of the aggregate depend of course upon the laws applying to individual cases. The law of the variation of the degree of utility of food may thus be represented by a continuous curve "phq (Fig. IV), and the perpendicular height of each point of the curve above the line ox, re- presents the degree of utility of the commodity when a certain amount has been consumed. TJius, when the quantity oa has been consumed. Theory of Utility. 53 the degree of utility corresponds to the length of the line ah ; for if we take a very little more food, ad, its utility will be the product of ad and ah B^.W very nearly, and more nearly the less is the magni- tude of ad. The degree of utility is thus properly measured by the height of a very narrow rectangle corresponding to a very small quantity of food, which theoretically ought to be infinitely small. Total Utility and Degree of Utility. We are now in a position to appreciate perfectly the difference between the total utility of any com- modity and the degree of utility of the commodity at any point. These are, in fact, quantities of alto- gether different kinds, the first being represented by an area, and the second by a line. We must consider how we may express these notions in appropriate mathematical language. Let X signify, as is usual in mathematical books, the quantity which varies independently, — in this 54 The Theory of Political Economy. case the quantity of commodity. Let u denote the ivhole utility proceeding from the consumption of x. Then u will be, as mathematicians say, a functio of X ; that is, it will vary in some continuous and regular, but probably unknown, manner, when x is made to vary. Our great object at present, how- ever, is to express the degi-ee of utility. Mathematicians employ the sign a prefixed to a sign of quantity, such as x, to signify that a quantity of the same nature as x, but small in pro- portion to X, is taken into consideration. Thus a x means a small portion of x, and x+ a £c is there- fore a quantity a little greater thaii x. Now, when a? is a quantity of commodity, the utility of £c + ax will be more than that of ic as a general rule. Let the whole utility of x + a a? be denoted by tt + a u ; then it is obvious that the increment of utility a u belongs to the increment of commodity ax; and if, for the sake of argument, we suppose the degree of utility uniform over the whole of a x, which is nearly true owing to its smallness, Ave shall find the corresponding degree of utility by dividing a w by ax. We find these considerations fully illustrated by Fig. IV, in which oa represents x, and ah is the degree of utility at the point a. Now, if we increase x by the small quantity aa\ or ax, the utility is in- creased by the small rectangle ahUaJ, or au; and, since a rectangle is the product of its sides, we Theory of Uiditij. 55 find that the length of the line ah, the degree of utility, is represented by the fraction ^^. As already explained, however, the utility of a commodity may be considered to vary with perfect continuity, so that we commit a small error in assuming it to be uniform over the whole incre- ment A a*. To avoid this we must imagine acc to be reduced to an infinitely small size, ^u de- creasing- with it. The smaller the quantities are the more nearly we shall have a correct expres- sion for ah, the degree of utility at the point a. Thus the limit of this fraction ^-^, or, as it is commonly AiC (jiXb expressed, — , is the degree of utility con'esponding to the quantity of commodity x. The degree of utility is, in mathematical language, the differential coefficient of u considered as a function of x, and will itself be another function of x. We shall seldom need to consider the degree of utility except as regards the last increment which has been consumed or, which comes to the same thing, the next increment which is about to be con- sumed. I shall therefore commonly use the expres- sion ^?ia/ degree of utility, as meaning the degree of utility of the last addition, or the next possible addition of a very small, or infinitely small, quantity to, the existing stock. In ordinary circumstances, 56 The Theory of Political Economy. too, the final degree of utility Avill not be great compared with what it might be. Only in famine or other extreme circumstances do we ap];)roach the higher degrees of utility. Accordingly, we can often treat the lower portions of the curves of variation (2^l>q, Fig. IV) which concern ordinary commercial transactions, while we leave out of sight the jDortions beyond p or q. It is also evident that we may know the degree of utility at any point while ignorant of the total utility, that is, the area of the whole cuiwe. To be able to esti- mate the total enjoyment of a person would be an interesting thing, but it would not be really so important as to be able to estimate the additions and subtractions to his enjoyment, which circum- stances occasion. In the same way a very wealthy person may be quite unable to form any accurate statement of his aggregate wealth ; but he may nevertheless have exact accounts of income and expenditure, that is, of additions and subtractions. Variation of the Final Degree of Utility. The final degree of utility is that function upon which the Theory of Economics will be found to turn. Economists, generally speaking, have failed to discriminate between this function and the total utility, and from tliis confusion has arisen much perplexity. Many commodities which are most Theo7^y of Utility. 57 useful to us are esteemed and desired but little. We cannot live without water, and 3^et in ordinary circumstances we set no value on it. Why is this ? Simply because m'c usually have so much of it that its final degree of utility is reduced nearly to zero. We enjoy, every da}^ the almost infinite utility of water, but then we do not need to consume more than we liave. Let the supply run short by drought, and we begin to feel the higher degrees of utility, of which we think but little at other times. The variation of the function expressing the final degree of utility is the all-important point in economic problems. We may state as a general law, that the degree of utility varies with the quantity of commodity, and idtimately decreases as that quan- tity increases. No commodity can be named which we continue to desire with the same force, whatever be the quantit}'^ already in use or possession. All our appetites are capable of satisfaction or satiety sooner or later, in fact, both these words mean, etymologicall}^, that we have had enough, so that more is of no use to us. It does not follow, indeed, that the degree of utility will ahva3^s sink to zero. This may be the case Avith some things, especially the simple animal requirements, such as food, water, air, &c. But the more refined and intellectual our needs become, the less are they capable of satiety. To the desire for articles of 58 The Theory of Political Economy. taste, science, or curiosity, when once excited, there is hardly a limit. This great principle of the ultimate decrease of the final degree of utility of any commodity is im- plied in the writings of many economists, though seldom distinctly stated. It is the real law which lies at the basis of Senior's so-called 'Law of Variety.' Indeed, Senior incidentally states the law itself. He says : ' It is obvious that our desires do not aim so much at quantity as at diversity. Not only are there limits to the pleasure which commodities of any given class can afford, but the pleasure diminishes in a rapidly increasing ratio long before those limits are reached. Two articles of the same kind will seldom afford twice the pleasure of one, and still less will ten give five times the pleasure of two. In proportion, there- fore, as any article is abundant, the number of those who are provided with it, and do not wish, or wish but little, to increase their provision, is likely to be great ; and, so far as they are con- cerned, the additional supply loses all, or nearly all, its utility. And, in proportion to its scarcity, the number of those who are in want of it, and the degree in which they want it, are likely to be in- creased ; and its utility, or, in other words, the pleasure w^iich the possession of a given quantity of it will afford, increases proportionally ».' " 'Encyclopaedia Metropolitana,' p. 133. Reprint, p. 12. Theory of Utility.. 59 Baiificlcl's ' Law of the Subordination of Wants ' also rests upon the same basis. It cannot be said, ■with accuracy, that the satisfaction of a lower want creates a higher Avant ; it merely permits the higher want to manifest itself. We distribute our labour and possessions in such a way as to satisfy the more pressing wants first. If food runs short, the all-absorbing question is, how to obtain more, because, at the moment, more pleasure or pain depends upon food than upon any other commodity. But, when food is moderately abundant, its final degree of utility falls very Ioav, and w^ants of a more complex and less satiable nature become com- pai'atively prominent. The writer, hoAvever, who appears to me to have most clearly appreciated the nature and importance of the law of utility, is Richard Jen- nings, who, in 1855, published a small book called the 'Natural Elements of Political Economy p.' This Avork treats of the physical groundAvork of Economics, shoAving its dependence on physiological laAvs. It displays great insight into the real basis of Economics ; yet I am not aAA^are that economists have bestowed the slightest attention on Jennings' views q. I giA^e, therefore, a full extract from his P London : Longmans. a Cairnes is, however, an exception. See his work on ' The Character and Logical Method of Political Economy.' London, 1857, p. 81. Second Edition (Macmillan), 1875, pp. 56, 110, 224 App. B. y GO The Theory of Political Economy. remarks on the nature of utility. It will be seen that the law, as I state it, is no novelty, and that careful deduction from principles in our possession is alone needed to give us a correct Theory of Economics, ' To turn from the relative effect of commodities, in reducing sensations, to those which are abso- lute, or dependent only on the quantity of each commodity, it is but too well known to every con- dition of men, that the degree of each sensation which is produced, is by no means commensurate with the quantity of the commodity applied to the senses These effects require to be closely observed, because they are the foundation of the changes of money price, which valuable objects command in times of varied scarcity and abun- dance ; we shall therefore here direct our attention to them for the purpose of ascertaining the nature of the law according to which the sensations that attend on consumption vary in degree with changes in the quantity of the commodity consumed. ' We may gaze upon an object until we can no longer discern it, listen until we can no longer hear, smell initil the sense of odour is exhausted, taste until the object becomes nauseous, and touch until it becomes painful ; we may consume food until we are fully satisfied, and use stimulants until more would cause pain. On the other hand, the same object offered to the special senses for Theonj of Utility. 61 a moderate duration of time, and the same food or stimulants consumed when we are exhausted or weary, may convey much gratification. If the whole quantity of the commodity consumed during the interval of these two states of sensation, the state of satiety and the state of inanition, be con- ceived to be divided into a number of equal parts, each marked with its proper degrees of sensation, the question to be determined will be, what rela- tion does the difference in the degrees of the sensation bear to the difference in the quantities of the commodity? * First, with respect to all commodities, our feel- ' ino;s show tliat the dejyrees of satisfaction do not proceed pari passu with the quantities consumed ; they do not advance equally with each instalment of the commodity offered to the senses, and then suddenly stop ; but dhninish gradually, until they ultimately disappear, arid further instalments can produce no further satisfaction. In this progres- sive scale the increments of sensation resulting from equal increments of the commodity are obviously less and less at each step, — each degree of sensation is less than the preceding degree. Placing ourselves at that middle point of sensa- tion, the juste milieu^ the aurea mediocritas, the apKTTov fjLerpov of sages, wliicli is the most usual status of the mass of mankind, and which, there- fore, is the best position that can be chosen for 62 The Theory of Political Economy. measuring deviations from the usual amount, we may say that the law which expresses the rela- tion of degrees of sensation to quantities of com- modities is of this character : if the average or temperate quantity of commodities be increased, the satisfaction derived is increased in a less degree, and ultimately ceases to be increased at all; if the average or temperate quantity be diminished, the loss of more and more satisfaction will continually ensue, and the detriment thence arising will ultimately become exceedingly great ^\' Disutility and Discommodity. A few Avords will suffice to suggest tiiat as utility corresponds to the production of pleasure, or, at least, a favourable alteration in the balance of pleasure and pain, so negative utility will consist in the production of pain, or the unfavour- able alteration of the balance. In reality we must be almost as often concerned with the one as with the other; nevertheless, economists have not em- ployed any distinct technical terms to express that j)roduction of pain, which accompanies so many actions of life. They have fixed their attention on the more agreeable aspect of the matter. It will b.e allowable, however, to appropriate the good- >• pp. 96-99. Theory of UtUliy. 03 English word discommodity, to signify any sub- stance or action which is the opposite of com- modity, that is to say, anytldng ivliich ive desire to get rid of, like ashes or sewage. Discommodity is, indeed, properly an abstract form signifying inconvenience, or disadvantage ; but, as the noun commodities has been used in the English language for four hundred years at least as a concrete term s, so we may now convert discommodity into a con- crete term, and speak of discommodities as sub- stances or things, which possess the quality of causing inconvenience or harm. For the abstract notion, the opposite or negative of utility, we may invent the term disutility, which will mean some- thing different from inutility, or the absence of ' utility. It is obvious that utility passes through inutility before changing into disutility, these notions being related as + , o and — . Distribution of Commodity in different Uses. The principles of utility may be illustrated by considering the mode in which we distribute a com- modity when it is capable of several uses. There are articles which may be employed for many dis- tinct purposes : thus, barley may be used either to 8 It is used precisely in its present economical sense in the re- markable Processe of the Libelle of English Policie, probably written in the 15th century, and printed in Hakluyt's voyages. 64 The Theory of Political Economy. make beer, spirits, bread, or to feed cattle ; sugar may be used to eat, or for producing alcohol; timber may be used in construction, or as fuel; iron and other metals may be applied to many different purposes. Imagine, then, a community in the possession of a certain stock of barley; what principles will regulate their mode of consuming it. Or, as we have not yet reached the subject of exchange, imagine an isolated family, or even an individual, possessing an adequate stock, and using some in one way and some in another. The theory of utility gives, theoretically speaking, a complete solution of the question. Let s be the whole stock of some commodity, and let it be capable of two distinct uses. Then Ave may represent the two quantities appropriated to these uses by x^ and y^, it being a condition that a-i + ?/i — s. The person may be conceived as successively expending small quantities of the commodity; now it is the inevitable tendency of human nature to choose that course which appears to offer the greatest advantage at the moment. Hence, when the person remains satisfied with the distribution he has made, it follows that no alter- ation would yield him more pleasure ; which amounts to saying that an increment of commo- dity would yield exactly as much utility in one use as in another. Let az/i, au-z, be the incre- ments of utility, which might arise respectively Theory of Utility. 65 from consuming- an increment of commodity in the two different Avays. When the distribution is completed, we ought to have /\Ux-- ^u.,; or at the limit we have the equation dx dy which is true wdien x, y are respectively equal to ^i> Vi- We must, in other words, have the faial degrees of utility in the two uses equal. The same reasoning which applies to uses of the same commodity will evidently apply to any two uses, and hence to all uses simultaneously, so that we obtain a series of equations less numerous by a unit than the number of ways of using the com- modity. The general result is that commodity, if consumed by a perfectly wise being, must be con- sumed with a maximum production of utility. We should often find these equations to fail. Even when x is equal to —^ of the stock, its degree of utility might still exceed the utility attaching to the remaining -^ part in either of the other uses. This would mean that it was preferable to give the whole commodity to the first use. Such a case might perhaps be said to be not the exception but the rule ; for, whenever a commodity is capable of only one use, the circumstance is theoretically re- presented by saying, that the final degree of utility in this employment always exceeds that in any other employment. 66 The Theory of Political Economy. Under peculiar circumstances great changes may take place in the consumption of a commodity. In a time of scarcity the utility of barley as food might rise so high as to exceed altogether its utility, even as regards the smallest quantity, in producing alcoholic liquors ; its consumption in the latter way would then cease. In a besieged town the employment of articles becomes revolutionised. Things of great utility in other respects are ruth- lessly applied to strange purposes. In Paris a vast stock of horses were eaten, not so much because they were useless in other ways, as because they were needed more strongly as food. A certain stock of horses had, indeed, to be retained as a necessary aid to locomotion, so that the equation of the degrees of utility never wholly failed. Theory of Dimensions of Economic Quantities. In the recent progress of physical science, it has been found requisite to use notation for the purpose of displaying clearly the natures and relations of the various kinds of quantities concerned. Each different sort of quantity is, of course, expressed in terms of its own appropriate unit — length in terms of yards, or metres ; surface, or area, in terms of square yards or square metres ; time in terms of seconds, days, or years ; and so forth. But the more complicated quantities are evidently related Theory of Utility. 67 to the simpler ones. Surface is measured by the square yard, that is to say, the unit of length is involved tA^ice over, and if by L we denote one dimension of length, then the dimensions of surface are LL, or XI The dimensions of cubic capacity are in like manner LLL, or L^. In these cases the dimensions all enter positively, because the number of units in the cubical body, for instance, is found by multiplying the numbers of units in its length, breadth and depth. In other cases a dimension enters negatively. Thus denoting time by T, it is easy to see that the dimensions of velocity will be L divided by T, or LT~^, because the number of units in the velocity of a body is found by dividing the units of length passed over by the units of time occupied in passing. In ex- pressing the dimensions of thermal and electric quantities, fractional exponents often become ne- cessar}', and the subject assumes the form of a theory of considerable complexity. The reader to whom this branch of science is new will find a section briefly describing it in my Principles of Science, 3rd ed. p. 325, or he may refer to the works there mentioned *. Now, if such a theory of dimensions is requisite I J. D. Everett's ' Illustrations of the Centimetre-gramme- secoud System of Units,' 1875; Fleeming Jenkin's 'Text-book of Electricity and Magnetism,' 1873; Clerk Maxwell's 'Theory of Heat,' or the commencement of his great Treatise on Electricity, vol. I. p. 2. F 2 68 The Theory of Political Economy. in dealing with the precise ideas of physical mag- nitudes, it seems to be still more desirable as regards the quantities with which we are con- cerned in Economics. One of the first and most ij difficult steps in a science is to conceive clearly I the nature of the magnitudes about which we ' are arguing. Heat was long the subject of dis- cussion and experiment before physicists formed any definite idea how its quantity could be mea- sured and connected with other physical quan- tities. Yet, until that w^as done, it could not be considered the subject of an exact science. For one or two centuries economists have been wrang- ling about wealth, demand and supply, value, pro- \ duction, capital, interest, and the like ; but hardly any one could say exactly what were the natures of the quantities in question. Believing that it is in j forming these primary ideas that Ave require to exercise the greatest care, I have thought it well worth the trouble and space to enter fully into a discussion of the dimensions of economic quantities. /' Beginning with the easiest and simplest ideas, \ the dimensio7is of commodity regarded merely as a I physical quantity will be the dimensions of mass. It is true that commodities are measured in various ways, — thread by length, carpet by length, corn and liquids by cubic measure, eggs by number, metals and most other goods by weight. But it is obvious that, though the carpet be sold by Theorij of Utility. 69 length, the breadth and the weight of the cloth are equally taken into account in fixing the terms of sale. There will generally be a tacit reference to weight, and through weight to mass of materials in all measurement of commodity. Even if this be not always the case, we may, for the sake of sim- plifying our symbols in the first treatment of the subject, assume that it is so. We need hardly recede to any ultimate analysis of the physical conditions of the commodity, but may take it to be measured by mass, symbolised by M, the sign usually employed in physical science to denote this dimension. A little consideration Avill show, however, that we have really little to do with absolute quantities of commodity. One hundred sacks of corn regarded merely by themselves can have no important mean- ing for the economist. Whether the quantity is large or small, enough or too much, depends in the first place upon the number of consumers for whom it is intended, and, in the second place, upon the time for which it is to last them. We may per- haps throw out of view number of consumers in this theory, by supposing that we are always deal- ing with the single average individual, the unit of which population is made up. Still, we cannot similarly get rid of the element of time. Quantity of supply must necessarily be estimated by the number of units of commodity divided by the 70 The Theory of Political Economy, number of units in the time over which it is to be expended. Thus it will involve M positively and T negatively, and its dimensions will be re- presented by MT~\ Thus in reality supply should be taken to mean not supply absolutely, but rate of supp)ly. ,, Consumption of commodity must have the same i , dimensions. For goods must be consumed in time ; any action or effect endures a greater or less time, and commodity which will be abundant for a less time, may be scanty for a greater time. To say that a town consumes fifty million gallons of water is unmeaning per se. Before we can form any judgment about the statement, we must know whether it is consumed in a day, or a week, or a month. Following out, this course of thought we shall j arrive at the conclusion that time enters into all II economic questions. We live in time, and think and act in time; we are in fact altogether the creatures of time. Accordingly i t is ra te of supply, u rate of production , rate o f consump tion, per unit of time that we shall be really treating ; but it does not follow that T~^ enters into all the dimen- jjions with which we deal. As was fully explained in Chapter II, the ulti- mate quantities which we treat in Economics are Pleasures and Pains, and our most difficult task will be to express their dimensions correctly. In Theory of Utility. 71 the first place, pleasure and pain must be regarded as measured upon the same scale, and as having, therefore, the same dimensions, being quantities of the same kind, which can be added and subtracted ; they differ only in sign or direction. Noav, the only dimension belonging properly to feeling, seems iojio^^i-- be intensity, and this intensity must be independent/ both of time, and of the quantity of commodityv-'^ enjoyed. The intensity of feeling must mean, theni ^ Ijy I the instantaneous state produced by an elementary or\ ^H^ [infinitesimal quantity of commodity co7isumed. *^ Intensity of feeling, however, is only another name for degree of utility, which represents the favourable effect produced upon the human frame by the consumption of commodity, that is by an, elementary or infinitesimal quantity of commodity.) Putting U to indicate this dimension, we must remember that U will not represent even the full dimensions of the instantaneous state of pleasure or pain, much less the continued state which extends over a certain duration of time. The; instantaneous state depends upon the sufficiency or insufficiency of supply of commodity. To enjoy a highly pleasurable condition, a person must want a good deal of commodity, and must be well sup- plied with it. Now, this supply is, as already ex- plained, rate of supply, so that we must multiply U by MT~^ in order to arrive at the real instan- taneous state of feeling. The kind of quantity 72 The Theory of Political Economy. thus symbolised by MUT'^ must be interpreted as meaning so much commodity producing a cer- tain amount of pleasitixihle effect per imit of time. But this quantity will not be quantity of utility itself. It will only be that quantity which, when multiplied by time, will produce quantity of utility. Pleasure, as was stated at the outset, has the dimensions intensity and* duration. It is then this intcMsity which is symbolised by MUT"^, and we must multiply this last symbol by T in order to obtain the dimensions of utility or quantity of pleasure produced. But in making this multi- plication, MUT-^T, reduces to MU, which must therefore be taken to denote the dimensions of quantity of utility. We here meet with an explanation of the fact, so long perplexing to me, that the element of time does not appear throughout the diagrams and pro- blems of this theory relating to utility and ex- change. All goes on in time, and time is a neces- sary element of the question ; yet it does not explicitly appear. Recurring to our diagrams, that for instance on p. 50, it is obvious that the dimen- sion U, or degree of utility, is measured upon the perpendicular axis oy. The horizontal axis must, therefore, be that upon which rate of supply of commodity or MT~^ is measured, strictly speaking. If now we introduce the duration of the utility, Ave should apparently need a third axis, perpendicular Theory of Utility. 73 to the plane of the page, upon whicli to denote it. But were we to introduce this third dimension, we shoukl obtain a solid figure, representing a quantity truly of three dimensions. This would be erroneous, because the third dimension T enters negatively into the quantity represented by the horizontal axis. Thus time eliminates itself, and we arrive at a quantity of two dimensions correctly repre- sented by a curvilinear area, one dimension of which corresponds to each of the factors in MU. This result is at first sight paradoxical ; but the difficulty is exactly analogous to that which occurs in the question of interest, and Avhich led so pro- found a mathematician as Dean Peacock into a blunder, as Avill be shown in the Chapter upon Capital. Interest of money is proportional to the length of time for which the principal is lent, and also to the amount of money lent and the rate of interest. But this rate of interest involves time negatively, so that time is ultimately eliminated, and interest emerges with the same dimensions as the principal sum. In the case of utility we begin Avith a certain absolute stock of commodity, M. In expending it we must spread it over more or less time, so that it is really rate of supply which is to be considered ; but it is this rate 3IT~^, not simply M, which influences the final degi'ce of utility, U, at which it is consumed. If the same commodity be made to last a longer time, 74 The Theory of Political Economy. the degree of utility will be higher, because the necessity of the consumer will be less satisfied. Thus the absolute amount of utility produced will as a general rule be greater as the time of expen- diture is greater; but this will also be the case with the quantity symbolised by MU, because the quantity U will under those circumstances be greater, while M remains constant. To clear up the matter still further if possible, I will recapitulate the results we have arrived at. M means absolute amount of commodity. cuytCLoJJuJfy sl;. MT~^ means amount of commodity applied, so much per unit of time. Z7 means the resulting pleasurable effect of any increment of that supply an infinitesimal quantity '^,,^^^^ supplied per unit of time. MUT~^ means therefore so much pleasurable effect produced per unit of commodity per unit of time. v[f^'" •0''/ MUT~^T, or MU, means therefore so much absolute pleasurable effect produced by commodity in an unspecified duration of time. Actual, Prospective, and Potential Utility. The difficulties of Economics are mainly the difficulties of conceiving clearly and fully the con- ditions of utility. Even at the risk of being tire- some, I will therefore point out more minutely Theory of Utility. 75 how various are the senses in which a thing may be said to have utility. It is quite usual, and perhaps correct, to call iron or water or timber a useful substance ; but we may mean by these words at least three distinct facts. We may mean that a particular piece of iron is at the present moment actually useful to some person ; or that, although not actually useful, it is expected to be useful at a future time ; or we may only mean that it would be useful if it Avere in the possession of some person needing it. The iron rails of a railway, the iron which composes the Britannia Bridge, or an ocean steamer, is actually useful; the iron lying in a merchant's store is not useful at present, though it is expected soon to be so ; but there is a vast quantity of iron existing in the bowels of the earth, which has all the physical properties of iron, and might be useful if extracted, though it never will be. These are instances of actual, j)rosi')ective, and j^otential utility. It will be apparent that j'^otential utility does not really enter into the science of Economics, and when I speak of utility simply, I do not mean to include potential utility. It is a question of phys- ical science whether a substance possesses qualities which might make it suitable to our needs if it were within our reach. Only when there arises some degree of probability, however slight, that a particular object will be needed, does it acquire 76 The Theory of Political Ecomony. prospective utility, capable of rendering it a de- sirable possession. As Condillac correctly re- marks " — ' On diroit que les choses ne commencent a exister pour eux, qu'au moment oil ils ont un interet a savoir qu'elles existent.' But a very large part in industry, and the science of industry, be- longs to prospective utility. We can at any one moment use only a very small fraction of what we possess. By far the greater part of what we hold might be allowed to perish at any moment, without harm, if we could have it re-created with equal ease at a future moment, when need of it arises. We might also distinguish, as is customary with French economists, between direct and indirect utility. Direct utility attaches to a thing like food, which we can actually apply to satisfy our wants. But things which have no direct utility may be the means of procuring us such by exchange, and they may therefore be said to have indirect utility ^. To the latter form of utility I have elsewhere applied the name acquired utility i. This distinction is not the same as that which is made in the Theory of Capital between mediate and immediate utility, the former being that of any implement, machine, or other means of procuring commodities possessing u Condillac, ' Le Commerce et le Gouvernement,' Seconde Partie, Introduction. (Euvres Completes. Paris, 1803. Tom vii. p. 2. x'Garnier, ' Traite d'Economie Politique,' 5nie ed. p. 11. y See Chapter IV. Theory of Utilitij. 77 immediate and direct utility — that is, the power of satisfying want''. Distribution of a Commodity in time. We have seen that, when a commodity is capable of being used for different purposes, definite prin- ciples regulate its application to those purposes. A similar question arises when a stock of com- modity is in hand, and must be expended over a certain interval of time more or less definite. The science of Economics must point out the mode of consuming it to the greatest advantage — that is, with a maximum result of utility. If we reckon all future pleasures and pains as if they were pre- sent, the solution will be the same as in the case of different uses. If a commodity has to be distri- buted over n days' use, and v^, v.^, &c. be the final degrees of utility on each day's consumption, then we ought clearly to have v-^ = v.^ = v^= . . . =v„. It may, however, be uncertain during how many days we may require the stock to last. The com- modity might be of a perishable nature, so that if we were to keep some of it for ten days, it might become unserviceable, and its utility be sacrificed. Assuming that we can estimate more or less exactly the probability of its remaining good, let j^i' i^2' Pi ' • • Pio be these probabilities. Then, on =s See Chapter VII. 78 The Theory of Political Economy. the principle (p. 38) tliat a future pleasure or pain must be reduced in proportion to its want of cer- tainty, we have the equations The general result is, that as the probability is less, the commodity assigned to each day is less, so that V, its final degree of utility, will be greater. So far we have taken no account of the varying influence of an event according to its propinquity or remoteness. The distribution of commodity described is that which should be made and would be made by a being of perfect good sense and fore- sight. To secure a maximum of benefit in life, all future events, all future pleasures or pains, should act upon us with the same force as if they Avere present, allowance being made for their un- certainty. The factor expressing the effect of remoteness should, in short, always be unity, so that time should have no influence. But no human mind is constituted in this perfect way : a future feeling is always less influential than a present one. To take this fact into account, let 5'n 9'2' 9'3> &c. be the undetermined fractions which express the ratios of the present pleasures or pains to those future ones from whose anticipation they arise. Having a stock of commodity in hand, our tendency will be to distribute it so that the follow- ing equations will hold true — Vl p, qi = V2P2q2 = '^3P'3qS= ' • • = %iPnqn- Theory of Utility. 79 It will be an obvious consequence of these equa- tions that less commodity Avill be assigned to future days in some proportion to the intervening time. An illustrative problem, involving questions of prospective utility and probability, is found in the case of a vessel at sea, which is insufficiently vic- tualled for the probable length of the voyage to the nearest port. The actual length of the voyage depends on the winds, and must be uncertain; but we may suppose that it will almost certainly last ten days or more, but not more than thirty days. It is apparent that if the food were divided into thirty equal parts, partial famine and suffering would be certainly endured for the first ten days, to ward off later evils which may not be encoun- tered. To consume one-tenth part of the food on each of the first ten days would be still worse, as almost certainly entailing starvation on the follow- ing days. To determine the most beneficial distri- bution of the food, we should require to know the probability of each day between the tenth and thirtieth days forming part of the voyage, and also the law of variation of the degree of utility of food. The whole stock ought then to be divided into thirty portions, allotted to each of the thirty days, and of such magnitudes that the final degrees of utility multiplied by the probabilities may be equal. Thus, let v^, v^, Vg, &c. be the final degrees 80 The Theory of Political Economy. of utility of the first, second, third, and other days supplied, and p-^, jp.2, ^3, &c. the probabilities that the days in question will form part of the voyage ; then we ought to have If these equations did not hold true, it would be beneficial to transfer a small portion from one lot to some other lot. As the voyage is supposed cer- tainly to last the first ten days, we have Pi=P2^ ' ' • =2ho = '^ ; hence we must have v^ = v.2= . . . =Vio; that is to say, the allotments to the first ten days should be equal. They should afterwards decrease according to some regular law ; for, as the proba- bility decreases, the final degree of utility should increase in inverse proportion. CHAPTER IV. THEORY OP EXCHANGE, Irnporta7ice of Exchange in Economics. Exchange is so important a process in the maximising of utility and the saving of labour, that some economists have regarded their science as treating of this operation alone. Utility arises from commodities being brought in suitable quan- tities and at the proper times into the possession of persons needing them ; and it is by exchange, more than any other means, that this is effected. Trade is not indeed the only method of econo- mising : a single individual may gain in utility by a proper consumption of the stock in his possession. The best employment of labour and capital by a single person is also a question disconnected from that of exchange, and vdiich must yet be treated in the science. But, with these exceptions, I am G 82 The Theory of Political Economy. perfectly willing to agree with the high importance attributed to exchange. It is impossible to have a correct idea of the science of Economics without a perfect comprehen- sion of the Theory of Exchange ; and I find it both possible and desirable to consider this subject be- fore introducing any notions concerning labour or the jDroduction of commodities. In these words of J. S. Mill I thoroughly concur : ' Almost every speculation respecting the economical interests of a society thus constituted, implies some theory of Value: the smallest error on that subject infects with corresponding error all our other conclusions ; and anything vague or misty in our conception of it, creates confusion and uncertainty in everything else/ But when he proceeds to say, 'Happily, there is nothing in the laws of Value which re- mains for the present or any future writer to clear up; the theory of the subject is complete''^ — he utters that which it would be rash to say of any of the sciences. Ambiguity of the term Value. I must, in the first place, point out the thoroughly ambiguous and unscientific character of the term vahw. Adam Smith noticed the extreme difference of meaning between value i7i use and value in * ' Principles of Political Economy,' book iii. chap. 1. § 1. Theory of Exchange. 83 exchange ; and it is usual for writers on Economics to caution their readers against the confusion of thought to which they are liable. But I do not believe that either writers or readers can avoid the confusion so long as they use the word. In spite of the most acute feeling of the danger, I often detect myself using the word improperly ; nor do I think tliat the best authors escape the danger. Let us turn to Mill's definition of Exchange Value ^\ and we see at once the misleading power of the term. He tells us — ' Value is a relative term. The value of a thing means the quantity of some other thing, or of things in general, which it exchanges for.' Now, if there is any fact certain about exchange value, it is, that it means not an object at all, but a circumstance of an object. Value implies, in fact, a relation ; but if so, it cannot jiossibly be some other thing. A student of Economics has no hope of ever being clear and correct in his ideas of the science if he thinks of value as at all a thi7ig or an object, or even as anything which lies in a thing or object. Persons are thus led to sj^eak of such a nonentity as intrinsic value. There are, doubtless, qualities inherent in such a substance as gold or iron which influence its value ; but the word Value, so far as it can be correctly used, merely expresses the ^ ' Principles of Political Economy,' book iii. chap. 6. G 2 84 The Theory of Political Economy. circumstance of its exchanging in a certain ratio for some other substance. Value expresses Ratio of Exchange. If a ton of pig-iron exchanges in a market for an ounce of standard gold, neither the iron is value, nor the gold ; nor is there value in the iron nor in the gold. The notion of value is concerned only in the fact or circumstance of one exchanging for the other. Thus it is scientifically incorrect to say that the value of the ton of iron is the ounce of gold : we thus convert value into a concrete thing ; and it is, of course, equally incorrect to say that the value of the ounce of gold is the ton of iron. The more correct and safe expression is, that the value of the ton of iron is equal to the value of the ounce of gold, or that their values are as one to one. Value in exchange expresses nothing but a ratio, and the term should not be used in any other sense. To speak simply of the value of an ounce of gold is as absurd as to speak of the ratio of the numher seventeen. What is the ratio of the number seventeen ? The question admits no answer, for there must be another number named in order to make a ratio ; and the ratio will differ according to the number suggested. What is the value of iron compared with that of gold? — is an intelligible Theory of Exchange. 85 question. Tlie answer consists in stating the ratio of the quantities exchanged. Popular use of the term Value. In the popular use of the word vahie no less than three distinct though connected meanings seem to be confused together. These may be described as (1) Value in use ; (2) Esteem, or urgency of desire; (3) Ratio of exchange. Adam Smith, in the familiar passage already referred to, distinguished between the first and the third meanings. He said ^ ' The word value, it is to be observed, has two different meanings, and sometimes expresses the power of purchasing other goods which the possession of that object conveys. The one may be called " value in use ; " the other " value in exchange." The things which have the greatest value in use have frequently little or no value in exchange; and, on the contrary, those which have the greatest value in exchange have frequently little or no value in use. Nothing is more useful than water : but it will purchase scarce anything; scarce anything can be had in exchange for it. A diamond, on the contrary, has scarce any value in use ; but a very great quantity c ' "Wealth of Nations,' book i. chap. 4, near the end. 86 Tlic Theory of Political Economy. of otlier goods may frequently be had in exchange for it.' It is sufficiently plain that, when Smith speaks of water as being highly useful and yet devoid of purchasing power, he means ivater in abundance, that is to say, water so abundantly supplied that it has exerted its full useful effect, or its total utility. Water, v/hen it becomes very scarce, as in a dry desert, acquires exceedingly great purchasing power. Thus Smith evidently means by value in use, the total utility of a substance of vjhich the degree of utility has sunk very loiv, because the ivant of such substance has been well nigh satisfied. By purchas- ing power he clearly means the ratio of exchange for other commodities. But here he fails to point out that the quantity of goods received in exchange depends just as much upon the nature of the goods received, as on the nature of those given for them. In exchange for a diamond we can get a great quantity of iron, or corn, or paving stones, or other commodity of which there is abundance; but we can get very few rubies, sapphires, or other precious stones. Silver is of high purchasing powTr compared with zinc, or lead, or iron, but of small purchasing power compared with gold, platinum, or iridium. Yet we might well say in any case that diamond and silver are things of high value. Thus I am led to think that the word value is often used in reality to mean intensity of Theory of Exchange. 87 desire or esteem for a thing. A silver ornament is a beantiful object apart from all ideas of traffic ; it may thns be valued or esteemed simply because it suits the taste and fancy of its owner, and is the only one possessed. Even Robinson Crusoe must have looked upon each of his possessions with vary- ing esteem and desire for more, although he was incapable of exchanging with any other person. Now, in this sense value seems to be identical with the final degree of utility of a commodity, as defined in a previous page (p. 53) ; it is measured by the intensity of the pleasure or benefit which would be obtained from a new increment of the same commodity. No doubt there is a close connection between value in this meaning, and value as ratio of exchange. Nothing can have a high purchasing power unless it be highly esteemed in itself; but it may be highly esteemed apart from all comparison with other things ; and, though highly esteemed, it may have a low purchasing power, because those things against which it is measured, are still more esteemed. Thus I come to the conclusion that, in the use of the word value, three distinct meanings are habitually confused together, and require to be thus distinguished — (1) Value in use = total utility; (2) Esteem = final degree of utility ; (3) Purchasing poAver = ratio of exchange. 88 The Theory of Political Economy. It is not to be expected that we could profitably discuss such matters as economical doctrines, while the fundamental ideas of the subject are thus jumbled up together in one ambiguous word. The only thorough remedy consists in substituting for the dangerous name value that one of three stated meanings which is intended in each case. In this work, therefore, I shall discontinue the use of the word value altogether, and when, as will be most often the case, in the remainder of the book, I need to refer to the third meaning, often called by economists exchayige or excliangeahle value, I shall substitute the wholly unequivocal expression Ratio of Exchange, specifying at the same time what are the two articles exchanged. When we speak of the ratio of exchange of pig-iron and gold, there can be no possible doubt that we intend to refer to the ratio of the number of units of the one commodity to the number of units of the other commodity for which it exchanges, the units being arbitrary concrete magnitudes, but the ratio an abstract number. When I proposed, in the first edition of this book, to use Ratio of Exchange instead of the word value, the expression had been so little, if at all, employed by English economists, that it amounted to an innovation. J. S. Mill, indeed, in his chapters on Value, speaks once and again of things exchang- ing for each other 'in the ratio of their cost of Theory of Exchange. 89 production ; ' but lie always omits to say distinctly that exchange value is itself a matter of ratio. As to Ricardo, Malthus, Adam Smith, and other great English economists, although they usually dis- course at some length upon the meanings of the Avord value, I am not aware that they ever explicitly apply the name ratio to exchange or exchangeable value. Yet ratio is unquestionably the correct scientific term, and the only term which is strictly and entirely correct. It is interesting, therefore, to find that, although overlooked by English economists, the expression had been used by two or more of the truly scientific French economists, namely Le Trosne and Condillac. Le Trosne carefully defines value in the following terms ^^ — ' La valeur consiste dans le rapport d'echange qui se trouve entre telle chose et telle autre, entre telle mesure d'une production et telle mesure des autres.' Condillac apparently adopts the words of Le Trosne, saying © of value, ' Qu'elle consiste dans le rapport d'echange entre telle chose et telle autre.' Such economical works as those of Baudeau, Le Trosne, and Condillac w^re almost w^holly unknown to English readers until attention was drawn to them by Mr. H. D. Macleod d ' De I'lnt^ret Social,' 1777, chap. 1. § 4. *^ 'Le Commerce et le Gouvernenicnt,' 1776 ; ' (Euvres Completes de Comlillac,' 1803, Tom. 6"»c, p. 20. 90 Tlie Theory of Political Economy. and Professor Adamson ; but I shall endeavour for the future to make proper use of them. Dimension of Value. There is no difficulty in seeing that, when we use the word Value in the sense of ratio of exchange, its dimension will be simply zero. Value will be expressed, like angular magnitude and other ratios in general, by abstract number. Angular magnitude is measured by the ratio of a line to a line, the ratio of the arc subtended by the angle to the radius of the circle. So value in this sense is a ratio of the quantity of one commodity to the quantity of some other com- modity exchanged for it. If we compare the commodities simply as physical quantities, we have the dimensions M divided by M, or MM \ or M°. Exactly the same result would be obtained if, instead of taking the mere physical quantities, we were to compare their utilities, for we should then have MU divided by MU or M°U°, which, as it really means unity, is identical in meaning with M°. When we use the word value in the sense of esteem, or m-gency of desire, the feeling with which Oliver Twist must have regarded a few more mouthfuls when he ' asked for more,' the meaning of the word, as already explained, is identical with degree of utility, of which the dimension is U. fl Thcoru of Exchange. 91 Lastly, the value in use of Adam Smith or the total utility, is the integral of U d M, and has the dimen- sions MU. We may thus tabulate our results concerning the ambiguous uses of the word value — Popular Expression of Meaning. Scientific Expression. Dimensions, (1) Value in use Total Utility . . MU. (2) Esteem, or Urgency of Desire for more Final Degree of Utility . . U. (3) rurchasing Power Ratio of Exchange . . M°. Dejinition of Marhei. Before proceeding to the Theory of Exchange, it will be desirable to place beyond doubt the mean- ings of two other terms which I shall frequently employ. By a Market I shall mean much what conmiercial men use it to express. Originally a market was a public place in a town where provisions and other objects were exposed for sale ; but the word has been generalised, so as to mean any body of persons who are in intimate business relations and carry on extensive transactions in any commo- dity. A great city may contain as many markets as there are important branches of trade, and these markets may or may not be localised. The central point of a market is the public exchange, — mart or auction rooms, where the traders agree to meet and transact business. In London, the Stock Market, the Corn Market, the Coal Market, the 92 The Theory of Political Economy. Sugar Market, and many others, are distinctly localised ; in Manchester, the Cotton Market, the Cotton Waste Market, and others. But this dis- tinction of locality is not necessary. The traders may be spread over a whole town, or region of country, and yet make a market, if they are, by means of fairs, meetings, published price lists, the post office, or otherwise, in close communication with each other. Thus, the common expression Money Market denotes no locality : it is applied to the aggregate of those bankers, capitalists, and other traders wdio lend or borrow money, and who constantly exchange information concerning the course of business f. In Economics we may usefully adopt this term with a clear and well-defined meaning. By a market I shall mean two or more persons dealing in two or more commodities, whose stocks of those commodities and intentions of exchanging are known to all. It is also essential that the ratio of exchange between any two persons should be f T find that Cournot has long since defined the economical use of the word market, with admirable brevity and precision, but exactly to the same effect as the text above. He incidentally says in a footnote (' R^cherches sur les Principes Math^matiques de la Theorie des Eichesses/ Paris, 1838, p. 55), ' On sait que les ^conomistes en- tendent par marche, non pas un lieu d^termin^ ou se consomment les achats et les ventes, mais tout un territoire dont les parties sont unies par des rapports de libre commerce, en sorte que les prix s'y nivellent avcc facility et promptitude.' Theory of Exchange. 93 known to all the others. It is only so far as this commiinitj of knowledge extends that the market extends. Any persons who are not acquainted at the moment with the prevailing ratio of exchange, or whose stocks are not available for want of com- munication, must not be considered part of the market. Secret or unknown stocks of a commo- dity must also be considered beyond reach of a market so long as they remain secret and un- known. Every individual must be considered as exchanging from a pure regard to his own require- ments or private interests, and there must be perfectly free competition, so that any one will exchange with any one else for the slightest appa- rent advantage. There must be no conspiracies for absorbing and holding supplies to produce un- natural ratios of exchange. Were a conspiracy of farmers to withhold all corn from market, the consumers might be driven, by starvation, to pay prices bearing no proper relation to the existing supplies, and the ordinary conditions of the market "would be thus overthrown. The theoretical conception of a perfect market is more or less completely carried out in practice. It is the work of brokers in any extensive market to organise exchange, so that every purchase shall be made with the most thorough acquaintance with the conditions of the trade. Each broker strives to gain the best knowledge of the conditions 94 The Theory of Political Economy. ot supply and demand, and the earliest intimation of any change. He is in communication with as many other traders as possible, in order to have the widest range of information, and the greatest chance of making suitable exchanges. It is only thus that a definite market price can be ascertained at every moment, and varied according to the fre- quent news capable of affecting buyers and sellers. By the mediation of a body of brokers a complete consensus is established, and the stock of every seller or the demand of every buyer brought into the market. It is of the very essence of trade to have wide and constant information. A market, then, is theoretically perfect only when all traders have perfect knowledge of the conditions of supply and demand, and the consequent ratio of exchange ; and in such a market, as we shall now see, there can only be one ratio of exchange of one uniform commodity at any moment. So essential is a knowledge of the real state of supply and demand to the smooth procedure of trade and the real good of the community, that I conceive it would be quite legitimate to compel the publication of any requisite statistics. Secrecy can only conduce to the profit of speculators who gain from great fluctuations of prices. Speculation is advantageous to the public only so far as it tends to equalise prices ; and it is, therefore, against the public good to allow speculators to foster artifi- Theory of Exchange. 95 cially the inequalities of prices by which they profit. Tlie welfare of millions both of consumers and producers depends upon an accurate know- ledge of the stocks of cotton and corn ; and it would, therefore, be no unwarrantable interference with the liberty of the subject to require any infor- mation as to the stocks in hand. In Billingsgate fish market there was long ago a regulation to the effect that salesmen shall fix up in a conspicuous place every morning a statement of the kind and amount of their stocks*. The same principle has long been recognised in the Acts of Parliament concerning the collection of statistics of the quan- tities and prices of corn sold in English market toAvns. More recently similar legislation has taken place as regards the cotton trade, in the Cotton Statistics Act of 1868. Publicity, whenever it can thus be enforced on markets by public authority, tends almost always to the advantage of everybody except perhaps a few speculators and financiers. Definition of Trading Body. 1 find it necessary to adopt some expression for any number of people whose aggregate influence in a market, either in the way of supj^ly or demand, we have to consider. By a trading body I mean, in the most general manner, any body either of buyers s Waterston's ' Cyclopaedia of Commerce,' ed. 1846, ]). 466. 96 The Theory of Political Economy. or sellers. The trading body ma}^ be a single indi- vidual in one case; it may be the whole inhabitants of a continent in another ; it may be the indivi- duals of a trade diffused through a country in a third. England and North America will be trading bodies if we are considering the corn we receive from America in exchange for iron and other goods. The continent of Europe is a trading body as purchasing coal from England. The farmers of England are a trading body when they sell corn to the millers, and the millers both when they buy corn from the farmers and sell flour to the bakers. We must use the expression with this wide meaning, because the principles of exchange are the same in nature, however wide or narrow may be the market considered. Every trading body is either an individual or an aggregate of indivi- duals, and the law, in the case of the aggregate, must depend upon the fulfilment of law in the individuals. We cannot usually observe any pre- cise and continuous variation in the wants and deeds of an individual, because the action of extra- neous motives, or what would seem to be caprice, overwhelms minute tendencies. As I have already remarked (p. 17), a single individual does not vary his consumption of sugar, butter, or eggs from week to week by infinitesimal amounts, according to each small change in the price. He probably Theory of Exchange. 97 continues his ordinary consumption until accident directs his attention to a rise in price, and he then, perhaps, discontinues the use of the articles alto- gether for a time. But the aggregate, or what is the same, the average consumption, of a large com- munity will be found to vary continuously or nearly so. The most minute tendencies make themselves apparent in a wide average. Thus, our laws of Economics will be theoretically true in the case of individuals, and practically true in the case of large aggregates; but the general princi- ples will be the same, whatever the extent of the trading' body considered. We shall be justified, then, in using the expression with the utmost generality. It should be remarked, however, that the econo- mical laws representing the conduct of large aggre- gates of individuals will never represent exactly the conduct of any one individual. If we could imagine that there were a thousand individuals all exactly alike in regard to their demand for commodities, and their capabilities of supplying them, then the average laws of supply and demand deduced from the conduct of such individuals would agree with the conduct of any one indivi- dual. But a community is composed of persons differing widely in their powers, wants, habits, and possessions. In such circumstances the average laws applying to tliem will come under what I have H 98 The Tlieory of Political Economy. elsewhere ^^ called the ' Fictitious Mean/ that is to say, they are numerical results which do not pretend to represent the character of any existing thing. But average laws Avould not on this account be less useful, if we could obtain them; for the movements of trade and industry depend upon averages and aggregates, not upon the whims of individuals. The Lmo of Indifference. When a commodity is perfectly uniform or homo- geneous in quality, any portion may be indif- ferently used in place of an equal portion : hence, in the same market, and at the same moment, all portions must be exchanged at the same ratio. There can be no reason why a person should treat exactly similar things differently, and the slightest excess in what is demanded for one over the other will cause him to take the latter instead of the former. In nicely-balanced exchanges it is a very minute scruple which turns the scale and governs the choice. A minute difference of quality in a commodity may thus give rise to preference, and cause the ratio of exchange to differ. But where no difference exists at all, or where no difference is known to exist, there can be no ground for preference whatever. If, in selling a quantity of 1» 'Principles of Science,' 1st ed. vol. i. p. 422, 3nl ed. p. 363. Theory of Exchange. 99 perfectly equal and uniform barrels of flour, a mer- chant arbitrarily fixed different prices on them, a purchaser would of course select the cheaper ones ; and where there was absolutely no difference in the thing purchased, even an excess of a penny in the price of a thing worth a thousand pounds would be a valid ground of choice. Hence follows what is undoubtedly true, with proper explanations, that in the same open market, at any one moment, there cannot he two ^jrices for the same hind of ajiicle. Such differences as may practically occur arise from extraneous circumstances, such as the defective credit of the purchasers, their imperfect knowledge of the market, and so on. The principle above expressed is a general law of the utmost importance in Economics, and I pro- pose to call it The Laiv of Indifference, meaning that, when two objects or commodities are subject to no important difference as regards the purpose in view, they will either of them be taken instead of the other with perfect indifference by a pur- chaser. Every such act of indifferent choice gives rise to an equation of degrees of utility, so that in this principle of indifference we have one of the central pivots of the theory. Though the price of the same commodity must be uniform at any one moment, it may vary from moment to moment, and must be conceived as in a state of continual cliange. Theoretically speaking, H 2 100 The Theojy of Political Economy. it would not usually be possible to buy two por- tions of the same commodity successively at the same ratio of exchange, because, no sooner would the first portion have been bought, than the condi- tions of utility would be altered. When exchanges are made on a large scale, this result will be veri- fied in practice i. If a wealthy person invested £100,000 in the funds in the morning, it is hardly likely that the operation could be repeated in the afternoon at the same price. In any market, if a person goes on buying largely, he will ultimately raise the price against himself. Thus it is apparent that extensive purchases would best be made gra- dually, so as to secure the advantage of a lower price upon the earlier portions. In theory this effect of exchange upon the ratio of exchange must be conceived to exist in some degree, however small may be the purchases made. Strictly speak- ing, the ratio of exchange at any moment is that of dy to dx, of an infinitely small quantity of one commodity to the infinitely small quantity of > It is, I believe, verified in the New York Stock Markets, where it is the practice to sell Stocks by auction in successive lots, with- out disclosing the total amount to be put up. "When the amount offered begins to exceed what was expected, then each successive lot brings a less price, and those who bought the earlier lots suffer. But if the amount offered is small, tlie early buyers have the advantage. Such an auction sale only exhibits in miniature what is constantly going on in the markets generally on a large scale, Theory of Exchange. 101 another which is given for it. The ratio of ex- i change is really a differential coefficient. The quantity of any article purchased is a function of the price at which it is purchased, and the ratio of exchange expresses the rate at which the quan- tity of the article increases compared with what is given for it. We must carefully distinguish, at the same time, | between the Statics and Dynamics of this subject. }■ The real condition of industry is one of perpetual \ motion and change. Commodities are being con-' tinually manufactured and exchanged and con-^ sumed. If we wished to have a complete solution j of the problem in all its natural complexity, wej should have to treat it as a problem of motion — a | problem of dynamics. But it w^ould surely be; absurd to attempt the more difficult question when ;■ the more easy one is yet so imperfectly within our power. It is only as a purely statical problem that ; I can venture to treat the action of exchange. Holders of commodities will be regarded not as continuously passing on these commodities in streams of trade, but as possessing certain fixed amounts which they exchange until they come to equilibrium. It is much more easy to determine the point at which a pendulum will come to rest than to cal- culate the velocity at which it will move when displaced from that point of rest. Just so, it is a 102 The Theory of Political Economy. far more easy task to lay down the conditions under which trade is completed and interchange ceases, than to attempt to ascertain at what rate trade will go on when equilibrium is not attained. The difference will present itself in this form : dynamically we could not treat the ratio of ex- change otherwise than as the ratio of dy and dx, infinitesimal quantities of commodity. Our equa- tions would then be regarded as differential equa- tions, which would have to be integrated. But in the statical view of the question we can sub- stitute the ratio of the finite quantities y and x. Thus, from the self-evident principle, stated on pp. 98-99, that there cannot, in the same market, at the same moment, be two different prices for the same uniform commodity, it follows that the last increments in an act of exchange must he ex- changed in the same ratio as the lohole quantities exchanged. Suppose that two commodities are bartered in the ratio of x for y; then every m*^ part of X is given for the m^^ part of y, and it does not matter for which of the m^^ parts. No part of the commodity can be treated differently to any other part. We may carry this division to an in- definite extent by imagining m to be constantly increased, so that, at the limit, even an infinitely small part of x must be exchanged for an infinitely small part of y, in the same ratio as the whole quantities. This result we may express by stating Theory of Exchange. 103 that the increments concerned in the process of exchange must obey the equation The use which we shall make of this equation will be seen in the next section. The Theory of Exchange. The keystone of the whole Theory of Exchange, and of the principal problems of Economics, lies in this projiosition — The ratio of exchange of any tivo commodities will he the reciprocal of the ratio of^ the final degrees of utility of the quantities of com- modity available for consum]}tion after the exchange is completed. When the reader has reflected a little upon the meaning of this proposition, he will see, I think, that it is necessarily true, if the principles of human nature have been correctly represented in previous pages. Imagine that there is one trading body possessing only corn, and another possessing only beef. It is certain that, under these circumstances, a portion of the corn may be given in exchange for a por- tion of the beef with a considerable increase of utility. How are we to determine at what point the exchange will cease to be beneficial? This question must involve both the ratio of exchange and the degrees of utility. Suppose, for a moment, 104 The Thtory of Political Economy. that the ratio of exchange is approximately that of ten pounds of corn for one pound of beef: then if, to the trading body whicli possesses corn, ten pounds of corn are less useful than one of beef, that body will desire to carry the exchange further. Should the other body possessing beef find one pound less useful than ten pounds of corn, this body will also be desirous to continue the ex- change. Exchange will thus go on until each party has obtained all the benefit that is possible, and loss of utility would result if more were ex- changed. Both parties, then, rest in satisfaction and equilibrium, and the degrees of utility have come to their level, as it were. This point of equilibrium will be known by the criterion, that an infinitely small amount of com- modity exchanged in addition, at the same rate, will bring neither gain nor loss of utility. In other words, if increments of commodities be ex- changed at the established ratio, their utilities will be equal for both parties. Thus, if ten pounds of corn were of exactly the same utility as one pound of beef, there would be neither harm nor good in further exchange at this ratio. It is hardly possible to represent this theory completely by means of a diagram, but the accom- panying figure may, perhaps, render it clearer. Suppose the line pqr to be a small portion of the i-»K6^^Jburve of utility of one commodity, while the broken Theory of Exchange. 105 line pqr is the like curve of another commodity which has been reversed and superposed on the other. Owing- to this reversal, the quantities of the first commodity are measured along the base lYgV: line from a towards h, whereas those of the second must be measured in the opposite direction. Let units of both commodities be represented by equal lengths: then the little line da indicates an in- crease of the first commodity, and a decrease of the second. Assume the ratio of exchange to be that of unit for unit, or 1 to 1 : then, by receiving the commodity a a the person will gain the utility ad, and lose the utility dc\ or he will make a net gain of the utility corresponding to the mixtilinear figure cd. He will, therefore, wish to extend the exchange. If he were to go up to the point 6', and were still proceeding, he would, by the next small exchange, receive the utility he, and part with h'f ; or he Avould have a net loss of ef. He would, therefore, have gone too far ; and it is pretty obvious that the point of intersection, q. 106 The Theory of Folitlcal Ecoyioiny. defines the place where he would stop with the greatest advantage. It is there that a net gain is converted into a net loss, or rather where, for an infinitely small quantity, there is neither gain nor loss. To represent an infinitely small quantity, or even an exceedingly small quantity, on a dia- gram is, of course, impossible ; but on either side of the line 7nq I have represented the utilities of a small quantity of commodity more or less, and it is apparent that the net gain or loss upon the exchange of these quantities would be trifling. Symholic Statement of the Theory. To represent this process of reasoning in sym- bols, let AX denote a small increment of corn, and A 2/ a small increment of beef exchanged for it. Now our Law of Indiflference comes into play. As both the corn and the beef are homogeneous commodities, no parts can be exchanged at a dif- ferent ratio from other parts in the same market : hence, if x be the whole quantity of corn given for y, the whole quantity of beef received, a 2/ must have the same ratio to ax ^^ y to x; we have then, a y y y — ^ = s^, or A y = ^ A a?. AX X X In a state of equilibrium, the utilities of these increments must be equal in the case of each Theory of Exchange. 107 party, in order that neither more nor less exchange would be desirable. Now the increment of beef, A 2/, is - times as great as the increment of corn, A.r, so that, in order that their utilities shall be equal, the degree of utility of beef must be - times as great as the degree of utility of corn. Thus we arrive at the principle that the degrees of utility of commodities excha^iged ivill he in the inverse proportion of the magnitudes of the incre- ments exchanged. Let us now suppose that the first body, A, ori- ginally possessed the quantity a of corn, and that the second body, B, possessed the quantity b of beef. As the exchange consists in giving x of corn for y of beef, the state of things after exchange will be as follows : — A holds ct — x of corn, and y of beef. B holds x of corn, and h — y of beef. Let <^i {a — x) denote the final degree of utility of corn to A, and (p^x the corresponding function for B. Also let y^r^y denote A's final degree of utility for beef, and ^2(^-y) B's similar func- tion. Then, as explained on p. 104, A will not be satisfied unless the following equation holds true — ^1 {a — x).dx = ^iy.dy; Qj. (/>! (a-x) ^dy^ yfr^y dx 108 The Theory of Political Economy. Hence, substituting for the second member by the equation given on p. 103, we have What holds true of A will also hold true of B, mutatis mutandis. He must also derive exactly equal utility from the final increments, otherwise it will be for his interest to exchange either more or less, and he will disturb the conditions of ex- change. Accordingly the following equation must hold true — or, substituting as before, We arrive, then, at the conclusion, that whenever two commodities are exchanged for each other, and more or less can he given or received in infinitely small quantities, the quantities exchanged satisfy two equations, which may be thus stated in a concise form — ^1 {a — a?) y ^ cp.^^ The two equations are sufficient to determine the results of exchange; for there are only two un- known quantities concerned, namely, x and i/, the quantities given and received. A vague notion has existed in the minds of Theory of Excha7ige. 109 economical writers, that the conditions of ex- change may he expressed in the form of an equation. Thus, J. S. Mill has saidk; 'Xhe idea of a ratio, as between demand and supply, is out of place, and has no concern in the matter: the proper mathematical analogy is that of an equation. Demand and supply, the quantity demanded and the quantity supplied, Avill be made equal.' Mill here speaks of an equation as only a proper mathe- matical analogy. But if Economics is to be a real science at all, it must not deal merely with analo- gies ; it must reason by real equations like all the other sciences which have reached at all a sys- tematic character. Mill's equation, indeed, is not explicitly the same as any at which we have arrived above. His equation states that the quantity of a commodity given by A is equal to the quantity received by B. This seems at first sight to be a mere truism, for this equality must necessarily exist if any exchange takes place at all. The theory of value, as expounded by Mill, fails to reach the root of the matter, and show how the amount of demand or supply is caused to vary. And Mill does not perceive that, as there must be two parties and two quantities to every exchange, there must be two equations. Nevertheless, our theory is perfectly consistent with the laws of supply and demand ; and if we ^ ' Principles of Political Econom},' book iii. chap. 2, § 4, 110 The Theory of Political Economy. had the functions of utility determined, it would he possible to throw them into a form clearly ex- pressing the equivalence of snpply and demand. We may regard x as the quantity demanded on one side and supplied on the other ; similarly, y is the quantity supplied on the one side and demanded on the other. Now, when we hold the two equa- tions to be simultaneously true, we assume that the X and y of one equation equal those of the other. The laws of supply and demand are thus a result of what seems to me the true theory of value or exchange. Analogy to the Theory of the Lever. I have heard objections made to the general character of the equations employed in this book. It is remarked that the equations in question con- tinually involve infinitesimal quantities, and 3^et they are not treated as differential equations usually are, that is integrated. There is, indeed, no reason why the process of integration should not be applied when it is required, and I will here show that the equations employed do not differ in general character from those which are really treated in many branches of physical science. Whenever, in fact, we deal with continuously vary- ing quantities, the ultimate equations must lie between infinitesimals. The process of integration, Theory of Exchange. Ill if I understand the matter aright, only ascertains other equations, the truth of wliich follows from the fundamental differential equation. The mode in which mechanics is usually treated in elementary works tends to disguise the real foundation of the science which is to be found in the so-called theoiy of virtual velocities. Let us take the description of the lever of the first order as it is given in some of the best modern elementary works, as, for instance, in ^Mr. Magnus' ' Lessons in Elementary Mechanics/ p. 128. We here read as follows : — *Let 4-B be a lever turning freely about C, the fulcrum, and let P be the force applied at A, and W the force exerted, or resistance overcome, or weight raised at B. Suppose the lever turned through the angle AC A', then the work done by P equals P xarc^l^', and Avork done by IF equals W X arc BB\ if P and W act perpendicularly to the arm. Therefore, by the law of energy, A A' AC P xAA'=W X BB', and since -yjtj, = -^777 we have PxAC=WxBC, or, P X its arm = W x its arm.' Now, in such a statement as this, we seem to be dealing with plain finite quantities, and there is no apparent difficulty in the matter. In reality the difficulty is only disguised by assuming that P and W act perpendicularly to the arm through finite 112 The Theory of Political Economy. arcs. This condition is, indeed, carried out with ai^proximate exactness in the problem of the wheel and axlei, which may be regarded as combining together an infinite series of straight levers, coming successively into operation. In this machine, there- fore, the weights, roughly speaking, always act perpendicularly to arms of invariable length. But, in the generality of cases of the lever, the theory is only true for infinitely small displacements, and no sooner has the lever begun to move through any finite arc AA', than it ceases to be exactly true that the work done by P equals P x arc AA'. Never- theless, the theory is quite correct as applied to the lever considered statically, that is, as in a state of rest and equilibrium, because the finite arcs of displacement, when it really is disj^laced, are exactly proportional to the infinitely small arcs, known as virtual velocities, through which it would be displaced, if instead of being at rest, it suffered an infinitely small displacement. It is curious, moreover, that, when we take the theory of the lever treated according to the prin- ciple of virtual velocities, we get equations exactly similar in form to those of the theory of value as established above. The general principle of virtual velocities is to the effect that, if any number of forces be in equilibrium at one or more points of a rigid body, and if this body receive an infinitely ' See Magnus' 'Lessons,' § 91. Theory of Exchange. 113 small displacement, the algebraic sum of the pro- ducts of each force into its displacement is equal to zero. In the case of a lever of the first order, this amounts to saying that one force multiplied into its displacement will be neutralised by the other force multiplied into its negative displace- ment. But inasmuch as the displacements are exactly proportional to the lengths of the arms of the lever, we obtain as a derivative equation, that the forces multiplied each by its own arm are equal to each other. No doubt in the quotation given above, P >iAC=W x BC is an equation be- tween finite quantities; but the real equation derived immediately from the principle of virtual velocities, is P x AA' = W x BB\ in which P and W are finite, but A A' and BB' are in strictness infi- nitely small displacements. Let us Avrite this W AA' equation in the form^-i=^^; then as we also , AA' AC 1 ^-^ . 1 W AC nave ^-^ = ytp^ we can substitute ; hence -pc _ 7^-^. I dwell upon this matter at some length because we here have exactly the forms of the equations of exchange. As we have seen, the original equation is of the general form %~ = ~, where (bx and ^ly y^y ax ^ ^ represent finite expressions for the degrees of utility of the commodities Y and A^, as regards some individual, and dy and dx are infinitesimal I 114 The Theory of Political Economy. quantities of those commodities exchanged. But these infinitesimals may in this case at least be eliminated, because, in virtue of the Law of In- difference, they ai'e exactly proportional to the whole finite quantities exchanged. Hence for V^ we substitute ^. We may write the equations dx X so as to make the analogy X one below the other visible — thus W P AA'_AC BB'~ BC (px dy dx To put this analogy of the theories of exchange and of the lever in the clearest possible light, I give below a diagram, in which the several economic qualities are represented by the parts of the dia- gram to which they correspond or are proportional. Fig. F«. rice is always occasioned by the overbalancing of the inclinations of those who will or will not sell just about the 120 The Theory of Political Economy. point at which prices stand. When Consols are at 93i and business is in a tranquil state, it mat- ters not how many buyers there are at 93, or sellers at 94. They are really off the market. Those only are operative who may be made to buy or sell by a rise or fall of an eighth. The question is, whether the price shall remain at 93f, or rise to 93|, or fall to 93|. This is determined by the sale or purchase of comparatively very small amounts. It is the purchasers who find a little stock more profitable to them than the cor- responding sum of money, who make the price rise by |. When the price of the funds is very steady and the market quiescent, it means that the stocks are distributed among holders in such a way that the exchange of more or less at the prevailing price is a matter of indifference. In practice, no market ever long fulfils the theoretical conditions of equilibrium, because, from the various accidents of life and business, there are sure to be people every day compelled to sell, or having sudden inducements to buy. There is nearly always, again, the influence of prospective supply or demand, depending upon the political intelligence of the moment. Speculation compli- cates the action of the laws of supply and demand in a high degree, but does not in the least degree arrest their action or alter their nature. We shall never have a Science of Economics unless we learn llieory of Exchange. 121 to discern the operation of law even among the most i3erplexing complications and apparent in- terruptions. Problems in the Theory of Exchange. We have hitherto considered only one simple case of the Theory of Exchange. In all other cases where the commodities are capable of inde- finite subdivision, the principles will be exactly the same, but the particular conditions may be subject to variation. We may, firstly, express the conditions of a great market where vast quantities of some stock are available, so that any one small trader will not appreciably affect the ratio of exchange. This ratio is, then, apj)roximately a fixed number, and each trader exchanges at that ratio just so much as suits him. These circumstances may be repre- sented by supposing A to be a trading body pos- sessing two very large stocks of commodities, a and h. Let C be a person who possesses a com- paratively small quantity c of the second com- modity, and gives a portion of it, y, which is very small compared with h, in exchange for a portion x of a, which is very small compared with a. Then, after exchange, we shall find A in possession of the quantities a — x and h + y, and C in possession of X and c — y. The equations will become 122 The Theory of Political Economy. Since a — x and h + y, by supjDOsition, do not appre- ciably differ from a and h, we may substitute the latter quantities, and we have, for the first equa- tion, approximately, 01 a y ^ = ^ = 7n. Yi 6 ^ The ratio of exchange being an approximately fixed ratio determined by the conditions of the trading body A, there is, in reality, only one undetermined quantity, x, the quantity of commodity which C finds it advantageous to purchase by expending part of c. This will now be determined by the equation (px a 2' ^2' X2 ^• <^3> ^3. X.3 C. Now A, after the exchange, will hold a — x-^—x.^ of cotton and i/^ of silk ; and B will hold x^ of cotton and h — y^ — ?/., of silk : their ratio of exchange, 126 The Theory of Political Economy. i/i for a?!, will therefore be governed by the fol- lowing pair of equations — ^^1^1 '«'i ^2(^-^1-^/2) The exchange of A with C will be similarly de- termined by the ratio of the degrees of utility of wool and cotton on each side subsequent to the exchange; hence we have ^1 (a - d\ - ^2) _^i _ <^3 ^2 ^ There will also be interchange between B and C which will be independently regulated on similar principles, so that we have another pair of equa- tions to complete the conditions, namely, X2 2;2 2/2 X3(C- ^1-2^2) We might proceed in the same way to lay down the conditions of exchange between more numerous bodies, but the principles would be exactly the same. For every quantity of commodity which is given in exchange something must be received; and if portions of the same kind of commodity be received from several distinct parties, then we may conceive the quantity which is given for that com- modity to be broken up into as many distinct por- tions. The exchanges in the most complicated case may thus always be decomposed into simple ex- changes, and every exchange will give rise to two Theory of Exchange. 127 equations sufficient to determine the quantities involved. The same can also be done when there are two or more commodities in the possession of each trading body. Competition in Exchange. One case of the Theory of Exchange is of con- siderable importance, and arises when two parties comj^ete together in supplying a third party with a certain commodity. Thus, suppose that A, with the quantity of one commodity denoted by a, pur- chases another kind of commodity both from B and from C, who respectively possess h and c of it. All the quantities concerned are as follows — A gives Xi of a to B and x^ to C, B „ y^ of I to A, C „ y-i of c to A. As each commodity may be supposed to be per- fectly homogeneous, the ratio of exchange must be the same in one case as in the other, so that we have one equation thus furnished — •-^ = -^. (1) Now, provided that A gets the right commodity in the proper quantity, he does not care whence it comes, so that we need not, in his equa- tion, distinguish the source or destination of the 128 The Theory of Political Economy. quantities ; he simply gives ,?\ + ci\, and receives in exchange 2/1 + 2/2- Observing, then, that by (1) .yi+j/2 ^J/i we have the usual equation of exchange — yi 5 ^^d we have four equations by which to determine them. Various suppositions might be made as to the comparative magnitudes of the quantities h and c, or the character of the func- tions concerned; and conclusions could then be drawn as to the effect upon the trade. The general result would be, that the smaller holder must more or less conform to the prices of the larger holder. Failure of the Equations of Exchange. ■ Cases constantly occur in which equations of the kind set forth in the preceding pages fail to hold true, or lead to impossible results. Such Theory of Exchange. 120 failure may indicate that no exchange at all takes place, but it may also have a different meaning*. In the first case, it may happen that the com- modity possessed by A has a high degree of utility to A, and a low degree to B, and that vice versd B's commodity has a high degree of utility to B and less to A. This diiference of utility might exist to such an extent, that though B were to receive very little of A's commodity, yet the final degree of utility to him Avould be less than that of his own commodity, of Avhich he enjoys much more. In such a case no benefit can arise from exchange, and no exchange will consequently take place. This failure of exchange will be indicated by a failure of the equations. It may also happen that the whole quantities of commodity possessed are exchanged, and yet the equations fail. A may have so low a desire for consuming his own commodity, that the very last increment of it has less degree of utility to him than a small addition to the commodity re- ceived in exchange. The same state of things might happen to exist with B as regards his com- modity : under these circumstances the whole pos- sessions of one might be exchanged for the whole of the other, and the ratio of exchange would of course be defined by the ratio of these quantities. Yet each party might desire the last increment of the commodity received more than he desires the K 130 The Theory of Political Economy. last increment of that given, so that the equations would fail to be true. This case will hardly occur practically in international trade, since two nations usually trade in many commodities, a fact which would alter the conditions. Again, the equations of exchange will fail to be possible when the commodity or useful article pos- sessed on one or both sides is indivisible. We have always assumed hitherto that more or less of a commodity may be had, down to infinitely small quantities. This is approximately true of all ordi- nary trade, especially international trade between great industrial nations. Any one sack of corn or any one bar of iron is practically infinitesimal compared with the quantities exchanged by America and England; and even one cargo or parcel of corn or iron is a small fraction of the whole. But, in exceptional cases, even international trade might involve indivisible articles. We might conceive the British Government giving the Koh-i-noor diamond to the Khedive of Egypt in exchange for Pompey's Pillar, in which case it would certainly not answer the purpose to break up one article or the other". When an island or portion of territory n Since the above was written the value of Cleopatra's Needle has actually formed the subject of decision in the Admiralty Court, in connection with the award of salvage. The fact however is that in the absence of any act of exchange concerning such an object, the notion of value is not applicable at all. At the best the value Theory of Exchange. 131 is transferred from one possessor to another, it is often necessary to take the whole, or none. America, in purchasing Alaska from Russia, would hardly have consented to purchase less than the whole. In every sale of a house, factory, or other building, it is usually impracticable to make any division without greatly lessening the utility of the whole. In all such cases our equations must fail to exist, because we cannot contemplate the existence of an increment or a decrement to an indivisible article. Suppose, for example, that A and B each possess a book : they cannot break up the books, and must therefore exchange them entire, if at all. Under what conditions will they do so ? Plainly on the condition that each makes a gain of utility by so doing. Here we deal not with the final degree of utility depending on an infinitesimal quantity, but on the ivhole utility of the complete article. Now let us assign the symbols as follows : — u^ = the utility of A's book to A, 1/2 „ „ A's „ to B, Vr » » B's „ to A, Vz „ „ B's „ to B. assigned, namely £25,000, is a mere fiction arbitrarily invented to represent what might conceivably be given for such an object if there were a purchaser. It is, moreover, curious that since the first edition was printed Russia has actually made an exchange of islands with Japan. K 2 13iiJ The Theory of Political JEconomy. Then the conditions of exchange are simply We might indeed theoretically contemplate the case where the utilities Avere exactly equal on one side ; thus %\ > Ui, B would then be wholly indifferent to the ex- change, and I do not see any means of deciding whether he would or would not consent to it. But we need hardly consider the case, as it could seldom practically occur. Were the utilities exactly equal on both sides in respect to both objects, there would obviously be no motive to exchange. Again, the slightest loss of utility on either side would be a complete bar to the transaction, because we are not supposing, at present, that any other com- modities are in possession so as to allow of separate inducements, or that any other motives than such as arise out of simple desire of one's own conveni- ence enter into the question. A much more difficult problem arises when we suppose an indivisible article exchanged for a divi- sible commodity. When Russia sold Alaska this was a practically indivisible thing; but it was bought with money of which more or less might be • given to indefinitely small quantities. A bargain of this kind is exceedingly common ; indeed it occurs in the case of every house, mansion, estate. Theory of Exchange. 133 factory, ship, or other complete whole, which is sold for money. Our former equations of exchange certainly fail, foj- tliey involve increments of com- modity on both sides. The theory seems to give a very unsatisfactory answer, for the problem l^roves to be, within certain limits, indeterminate. Let X be the indivisible article; u^ its utility to its possessor A, and u^ its utility to B. Let y be the quantity of commodity given for it, a commodity wiiich is supposed to be divisible ad infinitum ; let t\ be the total utility of y to A, and V.2 its total utilit}^ to B. Then it is quite evident that, in oi-der to give rise to exchange, v^ must be greater than u^, and u.^ must be greater than v.2 ; that is, there must, as before, be a gain of utility on each side. The quantity y must not be so great then as to deprive B of gain, nor so small as to deprive A of gain. The following is an extract from Mr. Thornton's w^ork which exactly expresses the problem : — 'There are tw'o opposite extremes — one above w^hich the price of a commodity cannot rise, the other below which it cannot fall. The upper of these limits is marked by the utility, real or sup- posed, of the commodity to the customer ; the lower, of its utility to the dealer. No one will give for a commodity a quantity of money or money's worth, which, in his opinion, would be of more use to him than the connnodity itself No one will 134 The Theor'y of Political Economy. take for a commodity a quantity of money or of anything else which he thinks would be of less use to himself than the commodity. The price eventu- ally given and taken may be either at one of the opposite extremes, or may be anywhere interme- diate between them «.' Three distinct cases might occur, which can best be illustrated by a concrete example. Suppose we can read the thoughts of the parties in the sale of a house. If A says £1200 is the least price which will satisfy him, and B holds that £800 is the highest price which it will be profitable for him to give, no exchange can possibly take place. If A should find £1000 to be his lowest limit, while B happens to name the same sum for his highest limit, the transaction can be closed, and the price will be exactly defined. But supposing, finally, that A is really willing to sell at £900, and B is prepared to buy at £1100, in what manner can we theoretically determine the price ? I see no mode of solving the question. Any price between £900 and £1100 will leave a profit on each side, and both parties will lose if they do not come to terms. I conceive that such a transaction must be settled upon other than strictly economical grounds. The result of the bargain Avill greatly depend upon the comparative amount of knowledge of each other's o Thornton ' On Labour ; its Wrongful Claims and Rightful Dues' (1869), p. 58. Theory of Exchange. 135 positions and needs Avliicli either bargainer may possess or manage to obtain in the course of the transaction. Thus the power of reading another man's thouglits is of high importance in business, and the art of bargaining mainly consists in the buyer ascertaining the lowest price at wdiicli the seller is willing to part with his object, Avithout disclosing if possible the highest price which he, the seller, is willing to give. The disposition and force of character of the parties, their comparative persistency, their adroitness and experience in busi- ness, or it may be feelings of justice or of kindliness will also influence the decision. These are motives more or less extraneous to a theory of Economics, and yet they appear necessary considerations in this problem. It may be, that indeterminate bar- gains of this kind are best arranged by an arbitrator or third party. The equations of exchange may fail again v/hen commodities are divisible, but not to iiihnitely small quantities. There is always, in retail trade, a convenient unit below which we do not descend in purchases. Paper may be bought in quires, or even in packets, which it may not be desirable to break up. Wine cannot be bought from the wine merchant in less than a bottle at a time. In all such eases exchange cannot, theoretically speaking-, be perfectly adjusted, because it will be infinitely improbable that an integral number of units will 136 The Theory of Political Economy. precisely verify the equations of exchange. In a large proportion of cases, indeed, the unit may be so small compared with the Avhole quantities exchanged, as practically to be infinitely small. But suppose that a person be buying ink which is only to be had, under the circumstances, in one shilling bottles. If one bottle be not quite enough, how will he decide whether to take a second or not. Clearly by estimating the aggregate utility of the bottle of ink compared with the shilling. If there be an excess, he will certainly purchase it, and proceed to consider whether a third be desirable or not. This case might be illustrated by Figure VI. in which the spaces o q^, p^ q-z^ P2 %■> ^c. represent the total utilities of successive bottles of ink ; while the equal spaces )\, i\ r^, &c. represent the total p4 b pS utilities of successive shillings, which we may assume to be practically invariable. There is no Theory of Exchange. 137 doubt that three bottles will be purchased, but the fourth will not be purchased unless the niixtilinear figure ^3 (/a (/4 ^4 exceed in area the rectangle j^g r.^ Cases of this kind are similar to those treated in pp. 130-4, where the things exchanged are indivi- sible, except that the question of exchange or no exchange occurs over and over again with respect to each successive unit, and is decided in respect to each by the excess of the total utility of the unit to be received over the total utility of that to be given. There is indeed perfect harmony between the cases where equations can and Avhere they can- not be established ; for we have only to imagine the indivisible units of commodity to be indefi- nitely lessened in size to enable us to pass gradually down to the case where equality of the increments of utility is ultimately established. Negative and Zero Value. Only a few economists, notably Mr. H. D. Macleod in several of his publications, have noticed the fact that there may be such a thing as negative value. Yet there cannot be the least doubt that people often labour, or pay money to other labourers, in order to get rid of things, and they would not do tliis unless such things were hurtful, that is, had the opposite quality to utility— disutility. Water, 138 The Theory of Political Economy. when it gets into a mine, is a costly tiling to get out again, and many people have been ruined by wet mines. Quarries and mines usually produce great quantities of valueless rock or earth, variously called duff, spoil, waste, rubbish, and no inconsi- derable part of the cost of working arises from the need of raising and carrying this profitless mass of matter and then finding land on which to deposit it. Every furnace yields cinders, dross, or slag, which can seldom be sold for any money, and every household is at the expense of getting rid, in one way or another, of sewage, ashes, swill, and other rejectanea. Reflection soon shows, in short, that no inconsiderable part of the values with which we deal in practical economics must be negative values. It will hardly be needful to show at full length that this negative value may be regarded as vary- ing continuously in the same way as positive value. If after a long drought rain begins to fall heavily, it is at first hailed as a great benefit; the rain- water may be so valuable as to produce a crop, when otherwise successful agriculture would have been impossible. Rain may thus avert famine ; but after the rain has fallen for a certain length of time, the farmer begins to think he has had enough of it; more rain will retard his operations, or injure the growing plants. As the rain continues to fall he fears further injury; water begins to flood his land, and there is even danger of the soil and crops Theory of Exchange. 139 being all washed away together. But the rain unfortunately pours down more and more heavily, until at length perhaps the crops, soil, house, stock, — nay, the farmer himself, are all swept bodily away. That same water, then, which in moderate quantity would have been of the greatest possible benefit, has only to be supplied in greater and greater quantities, to become injurious until it ends with occasioning the ruin, and even the death of the individual. Those acquainted with the floods and droughts of Australia know that this is no fancy sketch P. It many other cases it might be shown similarly that matter, we can hardly call it commodity, ac- quires a higher and higher degree of disutility, the greater the quantity which has to be disposed of. Such is the case with the sewage of great towns, the foul or poisoned water from mines, dye-works, etc. Any obstacle, however, may be regarded as so much discommodity, whether it be a mountain which has to be bored through to make a railway, or a hollow which has to be filled up with an ex- pensive embankment. If a building site requires a certain expenditure in levelling and draining before it can be made use ofj the cost of this work is, of course, subtracted from the value Avhich the P See the author's ' History of the Floods and Droughts of New South Wales,' iu the Australian Almanack, Sydney, 1859, p. 61. Aleo Mr. H. C. Russell's ' Climate of New South Wales.' 1 40 The Theory of Political Economy. land would otherwise possess. As every advantage in property gives rise to value, so every disad- vantage must be set against that value. We now come to the question how negative value is to be represented in our equations. Let us sup- pose a person possessing a of some commodity to find it insufficient : then it has positive degree of utility for him, that is to say (p[a) is positive. Suppose X to be added to a and gradually increased : (p{a + <«') will gradually decrease. Let us assume that for a certain value of w it becomes zero ; then, if the further increase of .v turns utility into dis- utility, //7/ that of beef, we have 8 . (pa^ = 9 . ^l^y. This equation would doubtless not hold true in extreme circumstances; if mutton became com- paratively scarce, there would probably be some persons willing to pay a higher price, merely be- cause it would then be considered a delicacy. But this is certain, that, so long as the equation of utilities holds true, the ratio of exchange be- tween mutton and beef will not diverge from that •of 8 to 9. If the supply of beef falls off* to a small extent, people will not pay a higher price for it, but will eat more mutton; and if the supply of Theory of Exchange. 147 mutton falls oft', they will eat more beef. The conditions of sujiply will have no effect upon the ratio of exchange; we must, in fact, treat beef and mutton as one commodity of two different strengths, just as gold at eighteen and gold at twenty carats are hardly considered as two but rather as one commodity, of which twenty parts of one are equivalent to eighteen of the other. It is upon this principle that we must explain, in harmony with Cairnes' views, the extraordinary per - manence of the ratio of exchange of gold and silver, Avhich from the commencement of the eighteenth century np to recent years never diverged much from 15 to 1. That this fixedness of ratio did not depend entirel}^ upon the amount or cost of production is proved by the very slight effect of the Australian and Californian gold discoveries, which never raised the gold price of silver more than about 4| per cent., and failed to have a per- manent effect of more than 1| per cent. This permanence of relative values may have been partially due to the fact, that gold and silver can be employed for exactly the same purposes, but that the superior brilliancy of gold occasions it to be preferred, unless it be about 15 or 15| times as costly as silver. Much more probably, how- ever, the explanation of the fact is to be found in the fixed ratio of 15 J to 1, according to which these metals are exchanged in the currency of L 2 148 The Theory of Folitical Economy. France and some other continental countries. The French Currency Law of the Year XI established an artificial equation — Utility of gold = 15| x Utility of silver; and it is probably not without some reason that Wolowski and other recent French economists attributed to this law of replacement an important effect in preventing disturbance in the relations of gold and silver. Since the first edition of this work was pub- lished, the views of Wolowski have received strik- ing verification in the unprecedented fall in the value of silver, which has occurred in the last three or four years. The ratio of equivalent weights of silver and gold, which had never before risen much above 16 to 1, commenced to rise in 1874, and was at one time (July 1876) as high as 22-5 to 1 in the London market. Though it has since fallen, the ratio continues to be subject to frequent considerable oscillations. The great production of silver in Nevada may contribute somewhat to this extraordinary result, but the principal cause must be the suspension of the French Law of the Double Standard, and the demonetization of silver in Ger- many, Scandinavia, and elsewhere. As I have treated the subject of the value of silver and the Double Standard elsewhere % I need not pursue it here. 1 'Serious fall in the value of gold,' 1863, p. 33. 'Money and the Mechanism of Exchange' (International Scientific Series), Tlieory of Exchange. 149 Acquired Utility of Commodities. The Theory of Exchange, as explained above, rests entirely on the consideration of quantities of utilit}', and no reference to labour or cost of production has been made. The value of a divi- sible commodity, if I may for a moment use the dangerous term, is measured, not, indeed, by its total utility, but by its final degree of utility, that is by the intensity of the need we have for more of it. But the power of exchanging one commodity for another greatly extends the range of utility. We are no longer limited to con- sidering the degree of utility of a commodity as regards the wants of its immediate possessor ; for it may have a higher usefulness to some other person, and can be transferred to that person in exchange for some commodity of a higher degree of utility to the purchaser. The general result of exchange is, that all conmiodities sink, as it were, to the same level of utility in respect of the last portions consumed. In the Theory of Exchange we find that the possessor of any divisible commodity will ex- chapter x';i. This chapter has been translated by M. H. Gravez and reprinted in the Bibliothfeque Utile, vol. xliv. (Gernier Bailliere), Pai'is, 1878. See also Papers on the Silver Question road before the American Social Science Association at Saratoga, Sept. 5, 1877, Boston, 1877, and Bankers' Magazine, December, 1877. 150 The Theory of Political Economy. change such a portion of it, that the next incre- ment would have exactly equal utility with the increment of other produce which he would re- ceive for it. This will hold good however various may be the kinds of commodity he requires. Sup- pose that a person possesses one single kind of commodity, which we may consider to be money, or income, and that _p, q, r, s, t, &c. are quantities of other commodities which he purchases with portions of his income. Let c*' be the uncertain quantity of money which he will desire not to exchange; what relation will exist between these quantities d% j), q, r, &c. ? This relation will partly depend upon the ratio of exchange, partly on the final degree of utility of these commodities. Let us assume, for a moment, that all the ratios of exchange are equalities, or that a unit of one is always to be purchased with a unit of another. Then, plainly, we must have the degrees of utility equal, otherwise there would be advantage in ac- quiring more of that possessing the higher degree of utility. Let the sign cp denote the function of utility, which will be different in each case ; then we have simply the equations — cp^^ = (p.^p = (l)^q = (p^r = (p^s = kc. But, as a matter of fact, the ratio of exchange is seldom or never that of unit for unit; and when the quantities exchanged are unequal, the degrees of utility will not be equal. If for one pound of Theory of Exchange. 151 silk I can have three of cotton, then the degree of utility of cotton must he a third that of silk, otherwise I should gain hy exchange. Thus the general result of the facility of exchange pre- vailing in a civilized country is, that a person procures such quantities of commodities that the final degrees of utiliti/ of any pair of commodities are inversely as the ratios of exchange of the com- modities. Let a^-i^, cv.2, c«'3, cT^, &c. be the portions of his in- come given for p, (/, r, s, &c. respectively, then we must have ^1 ^v 2J ' (p^.i'~ q' (f)^ .1? r ' and so on. The theory thus represents the fact, that a person distributes his income in such a way as to equalise the utility of the final increments of all commodities consumed. As water runs into hollows until it fills them up to the same level, so wealth runs into all the branches of expenditure. This distribution will vary greatly with different individuals, but it is self-evident that the want which an individual feels most acutely at the moment Avill be that upon which he will expend the next increment of his income. It obviously follows that in expending a person s income to the greatest advantage, the algebraic sum of the quanti- ties of commodity received or parted with, each nmltiplied hy its fmd degree of utility , ivill he zero. 152 TJie Theory of Political Economy. We can now conceive, in an accurate manner, the utility of money, or of that supply of com- modity which forms a person's income. Its final degree of utility is measured by that of any of the other commodities which he consumes. What, for instance, is the utility of one penny to a poor family earning fifty pounds a year? As a penn}^ is an inconsiderable portion of their income, it may represent one of the infinitely small incre- ments, and its utility is equal to the utility of the quantity of bread, tea, sugar, or other articles which they could purchase with it, this utility depending upon the extent to which they were already provided Avith those articles. To a family possessing one thousand pounds a year, the utility of a penny may be measured in an exactly similar manner; but it will be much less, because their want of any given commodity will be satiated or satisfied to a much greater extent, so that the urgency of need for a pennyworth more of any article is much reduced. The general result of exchange is thus to pro- duce a certain equality of utility between different comjnodities, as regards the same individual; but between different individuals no such equality will tend to be produced. In Economics we regard only commercial transactions, and no equalisation of wealth from charitable motives is considered. The degree of utility of wealth to a very rich man Theory of Exchange. 153 will be governed by its degree of utility in that branch of expenditure in which he continues to feel the most need of further possessions. His primary wants will long since have been fully satisfied ; he could find food, if requisite, for a thousand persons, and so, of course, he will have supplied himself with as much as he in the least desires. But so far as is consistent with the in- equality of wealth in every community, all com- modities are distributed by exchange so as to produce the maximum of benefit. Every person whose wish for a certain thing exceeds his wish for other things, acquires what he wants, i^rovided he can make a sufficient sacrifice in other respects. No one is ever required to give what he more desires for what he less desires, so that perfect freedom of exchange must be to the advantage of all. ■ The Gain hy Exchange. It is a most important result of this theory that the ratio of exchange gives no indication of the real benefit derived from the action of exchange. So many trades are occupied in buying and sell- ing, and make their profits by buying low and selling high, that there arises a fallacious ten- dency to believe that the whole benefit of trade depends upon the differences of prices. It is im- plied that to pay a high price is worse than doing 154 The Theory of Political Economy. without the article, and the whole financial sys- tem of a great nation may be distorted in the eifort to carry out a false theory. This is the result to which some of J. S. Mill's remarks, in his 'Theory of International Trade/ would lead. That theory is always ingenious, and as it seems to me, nearly always true; but he draws from it the following conclusion ^ : — ' The countries which carry on their foreign trade on the most advantageous terms, are those whose commodities are most in demand by foreign coun- tries, and Avhich have themselves the least demand for foreign commodities. From which, among other consequences, it follows, that the richest countries, Gceteris paribus, gain the least by a given amount of foreign commerce : since, having a greater de- mand for commodities generally, they are likely to have a greater demand for foreign commo- dities, and thus modify the terms of interchange to their own disadvantage. Their aggregate gains by foreign trade, doubtless, are generally greater than those of poorer countries, since they carry on a greater amount of such trade, and gain the benefit of cheapness on a larger consumption: but their gain is less on each individual article consumed.' J" 'Principles of Political Economy,' book iii. chap. 18, end of the 8th section. Theory of Exchange. 155 In the absence of any explanation to the con- trary, this passage must be taken to mean, that the advantage of foreign trade depends upon the terms of exchange, and that international trade is less advantageous to a rich than to a poor country. But such a conclusion involves con- , fusion between two distinct things — the price of j-Ar^i a commodity and its total utility, A country is not merely like a great mercantile firm buying and selling goods, and making a profit out of the difference of price ; it buys goods in order to con- sume them. But, in estimating the benefit which a consumer derives from a commodity, it is the total utility which must be taken as the measure, not the final degree of utility on which the terms of exchange depend. To illustrate this truth we may employ the curves in Figure VII to represent the functions of utility of two commodities. Let the wool of Australia be represented by the line oh, and its total utility to Australia by the area of the curvi- linear figure ohrp. Let the utility of a second commodity, say cotton goods, to Australia be simi- larly represented in the lower curve, so that the quantity of commodity measured by o'h' gives a total utility represented by the figure d^y^V. Then, if Australia gives half its wool, ah, for the quantity of cotton goods represented by o'c/, it loses the utility o.qrh, but gains that represented 156 The Theory of Political Economy. by the larger area op'cjfa'. There is accordingly a considerable net gain of utility, which is the real object of exchange. Even had Australia sold its wool at a lower price, obtaining cotton goods only to the amount of o'c, the utility of this y amount, oj^sc, would have exceeded that of the Avool given for it. So far is Mill's statement from being funda- mentally correct, that I believe the truth lies in the opposite direction. As a general rule, the greatness of the price which a country is willing and able to pay for the productions of other coun- tries, measures, or at least manifests, the greatness Theory of Exchange. 157 of the benefit which it derives from such imports. He who pays a high price must either have a very great need of thiit which lie buys, or very little need of that Avliich he pays for it ; on either sup- position there is gain by exchange. In questions i of this sort there is but one rule which can be safely laid down, namely that no one will buy aj thing unless he expects advantage from the pur-' chase ; and perfect freedom of exchange, therefore, tends to the maximising of utility. One advantage of the Theory of Economics, carefully studied, will be to make us very careful in our conclusions when the matter is not of the simplest possible nature. The fact that we can most imperfectly estimate the total utility of any one commodity should prevent us, for instance, from attempting to measure the benefit of any trade. Accordingly, when Mill proceeds from his theory of international trade to that of taxation, and arrives at the conclusion that one nation may, by means of taxes on commodities imported, ' ap- propriate to itself, at the expense of foreigners, a larger share than would otherwise belong to it of the increase in the general productiveness of the labour and capital of the worlds' I venture to question the truth of his results. I conceive that his arguments involve a confusion between the ratio of exchange and the total utility of a com- 3 ' Principles of Political Economy,' book v. cliap. 4, § 6. 158 The Theory of Political Economy. modity, and a far more accurate knowledge of economical laws than any one yet possesses would be required to estimate the true effect of a tax. Customs duties may be requisite as a means of raising revenue, but the time is past when any economist should give the slightest countenance to their employment for manipulating trade, or for interfering with the natural tendency of ex- change to increase utility. Numerical Determination of the Laws of ■^ Utility. I The future progress of Economics as a strict science must greatly depend upon our acquiring more accurate notions of the variable quantities concerned in the theory. We cannot really tell the effect of any change in trade or manufacture until we can with some approach to truth express the laws of the variation of utility numerically. To do this we need accurate statistics of the quantities of commodities purchased by the whole population at various prices. The price of a com- modity is the only test we have of the utility of the commodity to the purchaser ; and if we could tell exactly how much people reduce their con- sumption of each important article when the price rises, we could determine, at least approximately, the variation of the final degree of utility — the all- important element in Economics, Theory of Exchange. 159 111 such calculations we may at first make use of the simpler equation given on p. 123. For the first approximation we may assume that the general utility of a person's income is not affected by the changes of price of the commodity; so that if, in the equation we have many different corresponding values for x and Wo, Ave may treat \(/c, the utility of money, as a constant, and determine the general character of the function (px, the final degree of utility. This function would doubtless be a purely em- pirical one — a mere aggregate of terms devised so that their sum shall vary in accordance with statistical facts. The subject is too complex to allow of our expecting any simple precise law like that of gravity. Nor, when we have got the laws, shall we be able to give any exact explan- ation of them. They will be of the same cha- racter as the empirical formulae used in many of the physical sciences — mere aggregates of ma- thematical symbols intended to replace a tabular statement*. Nevertheless, their determination will render Economics a science as exact as many of the physical sciences ; as exact, for instance, as Meteor- ology is likely to be for a very long time to come. The method of determining the function of *■ See Jevons' ' Principles of iScience,' chapter xxii, New Ed., pp. 487-9, and the references thei'e given. 160 The Theory of Political Economy. utility explained above will hardly apply, hoAv- ever, to the main elements of expenditure. The price of bread, for instance, cannot be properly brought under the equation in question, because, when the price of bread rises much, the resources of poor persons are strained, money becomes scarcer with them, and \f/c, the utility of money, rises. The natural result is, the lessening of expendi- ture in other directions; that is to say, all the wants of a poor person are supplied to a less degree of satisfaction when food is dear than when it is cheap. When in the long course of scientific progress, a sufficient supply of suitable statistics has been at length obtained, it will become a mathe- matical problem of no great difficulty how to dis- entangle the functions expressing the degrees of utility of various commodities. One of the first steps, no doubt, will be to ascertain what pro- portion of the expenditure of poor people goes to provide food, at various prices of that food. But great difficulty is thrown in the way of all such inquiries by the vast difierences in the condition of persons, and still greater difficulties are created by the complicated ways in which one commodity replaces, or serves instead of another. Opinions as to the Variation of Price. There is no difficulty in finding, in works of Economists, remarks upon the relation between Tlieory of Exchange. 1(^)1 a change in the supply of a commodity and the consequent rise of price. The general principles of the variation of utility have been familiar to many writers. As a general rule the variation of price is much more marked in the case of necessaries of life than in the case of luxuries. This result would follow from the fact observed by Adam Smith, that ' The desire for food is limited in every man by the narrow capacity of the human stomach; but the desire of the conveniences and ornaments of build- ing, dress, equipage, and household furniture, seems to have no limit or certain boundary.' As I assert that value depends upon desire for more, it follows that any excessive supply of food wdll lower itsl price very much more than in the case of articles of luxury. Reciprocally, a deficiency of food will raise its price much more than would happen in the case of less necessary articles. This conclusion is in harmony with facts ; for Chalmers says " : ' The necessaries of life are far more powerfully affected in the price of them by a variation in their quantity, than are the luxuries of life. Let the crop of grain be deficient by one-third in its usual amount, or rather, let the supply of grain in the market, whether from the home produce, or by importation, be curtailed to the same extent, " Chalmerb' ' Chribtian and Economic Polity of a Nation,' vol. ii. p. 240. H 162 TliG Theory of Political Economy. and this will create a much greater addition than of one-third to the price of it. It is not an un- likely prediction, that its cost would be more than doubled by the shortcoming of one-third or one- fourth in the supply.' He goes on to explain, at considerable length, that the same would not happen with such an article as rum. A deficiency in the supply of rum from the West Indies would occasion a rise of price, but not to any great extent, because there would be a substitution of other kinds of spirits, or else a reduction in the amount consumed. Men can live without luxuries, but not without neces- saries. 'A failure in the general supply of escu- lents to the extent of one-half, would more than quadruple the price of the first necessaries of life, and would fall with very aggravated pressure on the lower orders. A failure to the same extent in all the vineyards of the world, would most assuredly not raise the price of wine to anything near this proportion. Rather than pay four times the wonted price for Burgundy, there would be a general descent to claret, or from that to port, or from that to the home-made wines of our own country, or from that to its spirituous, or from that to its fermented liquors ^Z He points to sugar especially as an article which would be extensively X Chalmers' ' Christian and Economic Polity of a Nation/ vol. ii. p. 242. I Theory of Exchange. 1^3 thrown out of consumption by any great rise in pricey, because it is a luxury, and at the same time forms a considerable element in expenditure. But he thinks that, if an article occasions a total expenditure of very small amount, variations of price will not much affect its consumption. Speaking of nutmeg, he says: — ^ There is not sixpence a year consumed of it for eacli family in Great Britain ; and perhaps not one family that spends more than a guinea on this article alone. Let the price then be doubled or trebled ; this will have no perceptible effect on the demand; and the price will far rather be paid, than that the wonted indulgence should in any degree be fore- gone The same holds true of cloves, and cinnamon, and Cayenne pepper, and all the pre- cious spiceries of the East; and it is thus, that while, in the general, the price of necessaries differs so Avidely from that of luxuries, in regard to the extent of oscillation, there is a remarkable ap- proximation in this matter between the very com- monest of these necessaries and the very rarest of these luxuries 2.' In these interesting observations Chalmers cor- rectly distinguishes between the effect of desire for the commodity in question and that for other commodities. The cost of nutmeg does not ap- y Chalmers' ' Christian and Economic Polity of a Nation,' vol. ii. p. 251. z Jli^l p. 252. M 2 164 The Theory of Political Economy. preciably affect the general expenditure on other things, and the equation on p. 123 therefore applies. But if sugar become scarce, to consume as before would necessitate a reduction of consumption in other directions; and as the degree of utility of more necessary articles rises much more rapidly than that of sugar, it is the latter article which is thrown out of use by preference. This is a far more complex case, which includes also the case of corn and all large articles of consumption. Chalmers' remarks on the price of sugai* are strongly supported by facts concerning the course of the sugar markets in 1855-6. In the year 1855, as is stated in Tooke's 'History of Prices V attention was suddenly drawn to a considerable reduction which had taken place in the stocks of sugar. Tlie price rapidly advanced, but before it had reached the highest point the demand became almost wholly susijended. Not only did retail dealers avoid replenishing their stocks, but there was an immediate and sometimes entire cessation of consumption among extensive classes. There Avere instances among the retail grocers of their not selling a single pound of sugar until prices receded to what the public was satisfied was a reasonable rate. a Vol. V. p. 324, &c. Tlieorij of Exchange. 165 Variation of the Price of Corn. As to Chalmers' ingenious remarks upon the consumption of nutmeg, he seems to be at least partially correct. To a certain extent he brings into view the principle explained above, that when only a small quantity of income is required to purchase a certain kind of commodity in sufficient abundance, the degree of utility of income will not be appreciably affected by the price paid, that is to say (p. 123) ^c remains approximately constant. It follows that -^ is constant, or in other words m the final degree of utility of the small commodity purchased must be directly proportional to the price. If then the price rise much, either the consumer must relinquish the use of that com- modity almost entirely, or else he must feel such need of it, that a small decrease of consumption is irksome to him ; that is to say, looking to our curves of utility, either we must recede to a part of the curve very close to the axis of y, or else the curve must be one which rises rapidly as we move towards the origin. Now Chalmers assumes that with nutmeg the latter is the case. People accustomed to use it in his time, were so fond of it that they would pay a much higher price rather than decrease their consumption consi- derably. This means that it possessed a high 166 The Theorij of Political Econohiy. degree of utility to them, which could only be overbalanced by some serious increase in the value of \|/c, which would ultimately mean the need of the necessaries of life. It is very curious that in this subject, which reaches to the very foundations of Political Eco- nomy, we owe more to early than later writers. Before our science could be said to exist at all, writers on Political Arithmetic had got about as far as we have got at present. In a pamphlet of 1737^, it is remarked that 'People who under- stand trade will readily agree with me, that the tenth part of a commodity in a market, more than there is a brisk demand for, is apt to lower the market, perhaps, twenty or thirty per cent., and that a deficiency of a tenth part will cause as exorbitant an advance.' Sir J. Dalrymple^, again, says : — ' Merchants observe, that if the commodity in market is diminished one-third beneath its mean quantity, it will be nearly doubled in value; and that if it is augmented one-third above its mean quantity, it will sink near one-half in its value; or that, by further diminishing or augmenting the quantity, these disproportions between the quantity and prices vastly increase.' These remarks bear little signs of accuracy, indeed, for the writers have spoken, of commodities in general as if they ^ Quoted in Lauderdale's ' Inquiry into the Nature and Origin of PuLlic Wealtli/ 2nd Ed., 1819, pp. 51-52. ^' Jbid. Theory of Exchange. 107 all varied in jn-ice in a similar degree. It is pro- bable that they were thinking of corn or other kinds of the more necessary food. In the ' Spec- tator' we find a conjectnre^^, that the production of one-tenth part more of grain than is usually consumed would diminish the value of the grain one-half I know nothing more strange and dis- creditable to statists and economists, than that in so important a j^oint as the relations of price and supply of the main article of food, we owe our most accurate estimates to writers who lived from one to two centuries ago. There is a celebrated estimate of the variation of the price of corn which I have found quoted in innumerable works on Economics. It is commonly attributed to Gregory King, whose name should be held in honour as one of the fathers of statistical science in England. Born at Lichfield in 1648, King devoted himself much to mathematical studies, and was often occupied in surveying. His prin- cipal public appointments were those of Lancaster Herald and Secretary to the Commissioners of Public Accounts ; but he is known to fame by the remarkable statistical tables concerning the popu- lation and trade of England, which he completed in the year 1696. His treatise was entitled ' Natural? and Political Observations and Conclusions upon' the State and Condition of England, 1696.' It- 'I No. 200, quoted by Lauderdale, p. 50. 168 The Theory of Political Economy. was never printed in the author's lifetime, but the contents were communicated in a most liberal manner to Dr. Davenant, who, making suitable acknowledgments as to the source of his infor- mation, founded thereupon his 'Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade ^' Our knowledge of Gregory King's conclusions was derived from this and other essays of Davenant, until George Chalmers printed the whole treatise at the end of the third edition of his well-known 'Estimate of the Comparative Strength of Great Britain.' The estimate of which I am about to speak is given by Davenant in the following words f: — 'We take it, that a defect in the harvest may raise the price of corn in the following propor- tions : Defect. Above the Common Kate 1 Tenth ^ 3 Tenths 2 Tenths raises 8 Tenths 3 Tenths . the < 1-6 Tenths 4 Tenths price 2-8 Tenths 5 Tenths 4-5 Tenths. So that when corn rises to treble the common rate, it may be presumed that we want above |^ of ■ e ' The Political and Commercial Works of Charles Davenant,' vol. ii. p. 163. f Ibid. p. 224. Theory of Exchange. 169 the common produce; and if we should want ~, or half the common produce, the price would rise to near five times the common rate.' Though this estimate has always been attri- buted to Gregory King, 1 cannot find it in his published treatise; nor does Davenant, who else- where makes full acknowledgments of what he owes to King, here attribute it to his friend. It is therefore, perhaps, due to Davenant. We may re-state this estimate in the folloAv- iug manner, taking the average harvest and the average price of corn as unity — Quantity of Corn 1-0 •9 •8 •7 •6 •5 Price .... 1-0 1-3 1-8 2-6 3-8 5-5 Many writers have commented on this estimate. Thornton g observes, that it is probably exceed- ingly inaccurate, and that it is not clear whether the total stock, or only the harvest of a single year, is to be taken as deficient. Tooke'\ how- ever, than Avhom. on such a pomt there is no higher authority, believes that King's estimate 'is not very wide of the truth, judging from the repeated occurrence of the fact that the price of corn in this country has risen from one hundred to two hundred per cent, and upwards when the s 'An Inquiry into the Nature and Eflfects of the Pajier Credit of Great Britain,' pp. 270, 271. 1' ' History of Prices,' vol. i. pp. 13-15. 170 The Theory of Political Economy. utmost computed deficiency of the crops has not been more than between one-sixth and one-third of an average.' I have endeavoured to ascertain the law to which Davenant's figures conform, and the mathe- matical function obtained does not greatly differ from what we might have expected. It is pro- bable that the price of corn should never sink to zero, as, if abundant, it could be used for feeding horses, poultry, and cattle, or for other purposes for which it is too costly at present. It is said that in America corn, no doubt Indian corn, has been occasionally used as fuel. On the other hand, when the quantity is much diminished, the price should rise rapidly, and should become in- finite before the quantity is zero, because famine would then be impending. The substitution of potatoes and other kinds of food renders the famine point very uncertain ; but I think that a total deficiency of corn could not be made up by other food. Now a function of the form fulfils these conditions ; for it becomes infinite when cV is reduced to h, but for greater values of A' always decreases as .v increases. An inspection of the numerical data shows that n is about equal to 2, and, assuming it to be exactly 2, I find that the most probable values of a and h are a = '824 and h = '12. The formula thus becomes Tlieorii of Exoliamje. Ill •824 price of corn = (..-12)^ or approximately, = ^ . The folloAving- numbers show the degree of ap- proximation between tlie first of these formulae and the data of Davenant — Harvest 1-0 "9 -8 •? "6 5 Price (Davenant) 1-0 1-3 I'S 2-6 3-8 5-5 Price calculated . 1-06 1-36 1-78 2-45 3-58 571 I cannot undertake to saj^ how nearly Dave- nant's estimate agrees with experience ; but, con- sidering the close approximation in the above numbers, we may safely substitute the empirical formula for his numbers ; and there are other rea- sons already stated for supposing- that this for- mula is not far from the truth. Roughly speak- ing, the price of corn may be said to vary inversely as the square of the supply, provided that this supply be not unusually small. I find that this is nearly the same conclusion as Whewell drew from the same numbers. He says i : 'If the above numbers were to be made the basis of a mathe- matical rule, it Avould be found that the price varies inversely as the square of the supply; or rather in a higher ratio.' There is further reason for believinii- that the 'o J Six Lectures on Political Economy. Cambridge, 1862. 172 The Theory of Political Economy. price of corn varies more rapidly than in the inverse ratio of the quantity. Tooke estimates ^ that in 1795 and 1796 the farmers of England gained seven millions sterling in each year by a deficiency of one-eighth part in the wheat crop, I not including the considerable profit on the rise of price of other agricultural produce. In each of the years 1799 and 1800, again, farmers pro- ibably gained eleven millions sterling by deficiency. If the price of wheat varied in the simple inverse proportion of the quantity, they would neither gain nor lose, and the fact that they gained con- siderably agrees with our formula as given above. The variation of utility has not been overlooked by mathematicians, who had observed, as long ago as the early part of last century — before, in fact, there was any science of Political Economy at all — that the theory of probabilities could not be applied to commerce or gaming without taking notice of the very different utility of the same sum of money to different persons. Suppose that an even and fair bet is made between two persons, one of whom has £10,000 a year, the other £100 a year; let it be an equal chance whether they gain or lose £50. The rich person will, in neither case, feel much difference ; but the poor person will receive far more harm by losing £50 than lie can be benefited by gaining it. The utility of money to a poor k ' History uf Prices.' Theory of Exchange. 173 person varies rapidly with the amount; to a rich person less so. Daniel Bernoulli, according] 3^, dis- 1 jyj^ tinguished in any question of probabilities ])et\veen j "^^ the moral exjjectation and the mathematical expec- tation, the latter being the simple chance of ob- taining some possession, the former the chance as measured by its utility to the person. Having no means of ascertaining numerically the variation of utility, Bernoulli had to make assumptions of an arbitrar}^ kind, and was then able to obtain reasonable answers to many important questions. It is almost self-evident that the utility of money decreases as a person's total wealth increases ; if . this be Q-ranted, it follows at once that gaming is, -^^''^^^ ill the long run, a sure way to lose utility ; that y*j!il- every person should, when possible, divide risks, that is, prefer two equal chances of £50 to one similar chance of £100 ; and the advantage of insurance of all kinds is proved from the same theory. Laplace drew a similar distinction be- tween the fortune physique, or the actual amount of a person's income, and the fortune morale, or its benefit to himi.' In answer to the objections of an ingenious S^f*tm- correspondent, it may be remarked that when we ' say gaming is a sure way to lose utility, we take no account of the utility — that is, the plea- sure attaching to the pursuit of gaming itself; 1 Todhunter's ' History of tlie Theory of Probability,' chap. xi. &c. 174 The Theory of Political Economy. we regard only the commercial loss or gain. If a person with a certain income prefers to rnn the risk of losing a portion of it at play, rather than spending it in any other way, it must no doubt be conceded that the political economist, as such, can make no conclusive objection. If the gamester is so devoid of other tastes that to spend money over the gaming-table is the best use he can dis- cover for it, economically sj^eaking, there is nothing further to be said. The question then becomes a moral, legislative or political one. A source of amusement which, like gaming, betting, dram- drinking, or opium-eating, is not in itself always pernicious, may come to be regarded as immoral, if in a considerable proportion of cases it leads to excessive and disastrous results. But this ques- tion evidently leads us into a class of subjects which could not be appropriately discussed in this work treating of pure economic theory. The Origin of Value. The preceding pages contain, if I am not mis- taken, an explanation of the nature of value which will, for the most part, harmonise with previous views upon the subject. Ricardo has stated, like niost other economists, that utility is absolutely essential to value ; but that ' possessing utility, commodities derive their exchangeable value from Theory of Exchange. 175 two sources : from their scarcity, and from the quantity of labour required to obtain them"^' Senior, again, has admirably defined wealth, or objects possessing value, as 'those things, and^ those things only, which are transferable, are ( limited in supply, and are directly or indirectly/ productive of pleasure or preventive of pain.'^ Speaking only of things which are transferable, or capable of being passed from hand to hand, we find that two of the clearest definitions of value recognise utility a nd sca rcit]^ as the essen- tial qualities. But the moment that we dis- tinguish between the total utility of a mass of commodity and the degree of utility of different portions, Ave may say that it is scarcity which prevents the fall in the final degree of utility. Bread has the almost infinite utility of main- taining life, and when it becomes a question of life or death, a small quantity of food exceeds in value all other things. But when we enjoy our ordinary su2:)plies of food, a loaf of bread has little value, because the utility of an additional loaf is small, our appetites being satiated by our customary meals. I have pointed out the excessive ambiguity of the word Value, and the apparent impossibility of using it safely. When intended to express the ™ ' Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,' third edition, p. 2. 176 The Theory of Political Economy. mere fact of certain articles exchanging in a par- ticular ratio, I have proposed to substitute the unequivocal expression — ratio of exchange. But I am inclined to believe that a ratio is not the meaning which most persons attach to the word Value. There is a certain sense of esteem or desirableness, which we may have with regard to a thing apart from any distinct consciousness of the ratio in which it would exchange for other things. I may suggest that this distinct feeling of value is probably identical with the final degree of utility. While Adam Smith's often-quoted value 5 in use is the total utility of a commodity to us, the value in exchange is defined by the terminal ^utility,, the remaining desire which we or others (have for possessing more. There remains the question of labour as an element of value. Economists have not been want- ing who put forward labour as the cause of value, asserting that all objects derive their value from the fact that labour has been expended on them ; and it is thus implied, if not stated, that value will be proportional to labour. This is a doctrine which cannot stand for a moment, being directly opposed to facts. Ricardo disposes of such an opinion when he says » : ' There are some com- modities, the value of which is determined by " * On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,' third edition, 1821, p. 2. Theory of Exchange. Vll their scarcity alone. No labour can increase the quantity of such goods, and therefore their value cannot be loAvered by an increased supply. Somef' '^^^*^'*^ rare statues and pictures, scarce books and coins, ''^- wines of a peculiar quality, which can be made only from grapes grown on a particular soil, of which there is a very limited quantity, are all of this description. Their value is wholly inde- pendent of the quantity of labour originally neces- ' - ' sar}'' to produce them, and varies Avith the varying wealth and inclinations of those who are desirous to possess them.' The mere fact that there are many things, such as rare ancient books, coins, antiquities, etc., which have high values, and which are absolutely inca- pable of production now, disperses the notion that value depends on labour. Even those things which^ are producible in any quantity by labour seldom ,>^^ exchange exactly at the corresponding values o. The market price of corn, cotton, iron, and most other things is, in the prevalent theories of value, ^..A.> allowed to fluctuate al)Ove or below its natural " Ifr. "W. L. Sargant in liis 'Recent Political Economy,' 8vo. London, 1867, p. 99, states that contracts have been made to manufacture the Enfield Rifle, of identically the same pattern, at prices ranging from 70^. each down to 20a\, or even lower. The ■wages of the workmen varied from 40s. or 50s. down to 15s. a week. Such an instance renders it obvious that it is> scarcity which governs value, and that it is th^ value of the produce which deter- mines the wages of the producerf;. 178 The Theory of Political Economy. or cost value. There may, again, be any dis- crepancy between the quantity of labour spent upon an object and the value ultimately attach- ing to it. A great undertaking like the Great Western Railway, or the Thames Tunnel, may embody a vast amount of labour, but its value depends entirely upon the number of persons who find it useful. If no use could be found for the Great Eastern steam ship, its value would be nil, except for the utility of some of its materials. On the other hand, a successful undertaking, which happens to possess great utility, may have a value, for a time at least, far exceeding what has been spent upon it, as in the case of the Atlantic cable. The fact is, that laboui' once sj^ent has no influence on the future value of amy article : it is gone and lost for ever. In commerce, by-gones are for ever by-gones ; and we are always starting clear at each moment, judging the values of things with 'a view to future utility. Industry is essentially prospective, not retrospective ; and seldom does the result of any undertaking exactly coincide with the first intentions of its promoters. But thougli labour is never the cause of value, it is in a large proportion of cases the determining circumstance, and in the following way: — Vahie depends solely on the final degree of utility. How can we vai^y this degree of utility f — By having more or less of the commodity to coJisume. And -uww^-s-T^-', Y^ /'Lf-ii**' Theox]) of Exfihanae. MJ^r 179 ^oi'j iViaZ? M'c (/e^ more or less of it f — By spending more or less labour in obtaining a supply. Ac- cording to this view, then, there are two steps between labour and, value. Labour affects supply, and siippiy affects fiie- degree of utility, which governs value, or the ratio of exchanget In order that there may be no possible mistake about this all-important series of relations, I will restate it in a tabular form, as follows, : — , . ^ t-la*^'^^<■ + j-i) ^^2. But this equation has its first member identical with the first member of the equation of exchange given above, so that we may at once deduce the all-important equation The reader will remember that ^ expresses the ratio of produce to labour; thus we have proved that commodities will exchange in any market in the ratio of the quantities produced by thei same quantity of labour. But as the increment of labour considered is always the final one, our equation also expresses the truth, that articles will exchange in quantities inversely as the costs of production of the mosl costly portions, i.e. the last portions added. This result will prove of great importance in the theory of Rent, Let it be observed that, in uniting the theories of exchange and production, a complicated double adjustment takes place in the quantities of com- modity involved. Each party adjusts not only its consumption of articles in accordance with their ratio of exchange, but it also adjusts its pro- 204 The Theory of Political Economy. duction of them. The ratio of exchange governs the production as much as the production governs the ratio of exchange. For instance, since the Corn Laws have been abolished in England, the effect has been, not to destroy the culture of wheat, but to lessen it. The land less suitable to the growth of wheat has been turned to grazing or other purposes more profitable comparatively speaking. Similarly the importation of hops or eggs or any other article of food does not even reduce the quantity raised here, but prevents the necessity for resorting to more expensive modes of increasing the supply. It is not easy to express in words how the ratios of exchange are finally determined. They depend upon a general balance of producing power and of demand as measured by the final degree of utility. Every additional supply tends to lower the degree of utility; but whether that suj^ply will be forthcoming from any country depends upon its comparative powers of producing different commodities. Any very small tract of country cannot appre- ciably affect the comparative supply of commo- dities : it must therefore adjust its productions in accordance with the general state of the market. The county of Bedford, for instance, avouM not appreciably affect the markets for corn, cheese, or cattle, whether it devoted every acre to corn or to grazing. Therefore the agriculture of Bed- Theory of Labour. 205 ford shire, will have to be adapted to circumstances, and each field will be employed for arable or grazing land according as prevailing prices render one employment or the other more profitable. But any large country will affect the markets as well as be affected. If the whole habitable surface of Australia, instead of producing wool, could be turned to the cultivation of wine, the wool market would rise, and the wine market fall. If the Southern States of America abandoned cotton in favour of sugar, there would be a revolution in these markets. It would be inevitable for Aus- tralia to return to wool and the American States to cotton. These are illustrations of the reciprocal relation of exchange and production. Relations of Economic Quantities. I hope that I may sometime be able, in a future and much larger work, to explain in detail the results which can be derived from the mathe- matical theory expounded in the previous pages. This essay gives them only in an implicit manner. But, before leaving the subject of exchange, it may be well without delay to point out how the results so far set forth connect themselves with the recognised doctrines of political economy. For the sake of accuracy I have avoided the use of the word value ; the expression cost of j^roduction, so 206 The Theory of Political Economy. continually recurring in most economical treatises, is also here conspicuous by its absence. The reader then, unless he be very careful, may be thrown into some perplexity, when he proceeds to com- pare my results with those familiar to him else- where. I will therefore proceed to trace out the connections between the several quantitative ex- pressions, which most commonly occur in discus- sions concerning value, exchange, and production. In the first place, the ratio of exchange is the actual numerical ratio of the quantities given and received. Let X and Y be the names of the com- modities : a? and y the quantities of them respec- tively exchanged. Then the ratio of exchange is that of y to ^. But the value of a commodity in exchange is greater as the quantity received is less, so that the ratio of the quantities dealt with must be the reciprocal of the ratio of the values of the substances, meaning by value the value per unit of the commodity. Thus we may say y _ Value of X per unit their costs of production per unit, as ivell as to their fined degrees of utility. I will even repeat the same statements once more in the form of a diagram : — Quantities of Commodity exchanged vary directly as the quantities inversely as their produced by the same (1) Values. labour. (2) Prices. (3) Costs of production. (4) Pinal degrees of utility. Various Cases of the Theory. As we have now reached the principal question in Economics, it will be well to consider the mean- J ing and results of our equations in some detail. It will, in the first place, be apparent, that the absolute facility of producing commodities will not determine the character and amount of trade. The ratio of exchange '^ is not determined by ^i, nor by OTg separately, but by their comparative mag- nitudes. If the producing power of a country were p 'f-f^ 210 The Theorxj 0/ Political Economy. doubled, no direct effect would be produced upon the terms of its commerce provided that the in- crease were equal in all branches of production. This is a point of great importance, which was correctly conceived by Ricardo, and has been fully explained by J. S. Mill. But though there is no such direct effect, it \ may happen that there will be an indire ct effect through the variation in the degree of utility of different articles. When an increased amount of every commodity can be produced, it is not likely that the increase will be equally desired in each branch of consumption. Hence the degree of utility will fall in some cases more than in others. An alteration of the ratios of exchange must result, and the production of the less needed commodities will not be extended so much as in the case of the more needed ones. We might find in such in- stances new proofs that value depends not upon labour but upon the degree of utility. It will also be apparent, that nations possessing exactly similar powers of production cannot gain by mutual commerce, and consequently will not have any such commerce, however free from arti- ficial restrictions. We get this result as follows — Taking ^^ ^g, as before, to be the final ratios of •productiveness in one country, and /x^ ^2 in a second, then, if the conditions of production are exactly similar, we have Theory of Labour. 211 ^1 Ml But when a country does not trade at all, its labour and consumption is distributed according to the condition (pa? "=^2 NoAv, from these equations, it follows necessarily, that that is to say, the production and consumptiom'^M'^^/ ^ already conform to the conditions of production/c;;^*^^^^*^ of the second country, and will not undergo any/^^v^v^ alteration when trade with this country becomes^ I^^^ ••1 1 •- ,'Lu- ;f?ivc A,^^.) .V^--^-; -■'••■■"■'-'■■■ ■< _■, ■. JL^, . epic possiDie. ^^j^^^^;-^ ^-u^-H^o-^^, 5^^.^-^^-. ;;y ^ 'y^j^' This is the doctrine usually stated in works on Political Economy, and for Avhich there are good grounds. Bu t I do not t hink the statement will hold true if the co nditions of consumption be very different in two countries. There might be two countries exactly similar in regard to their powers of producing beef and corn, and if their habits of consumption were also exactly similar, there would J]^ T be no trade in these articles. But suppose that the first country consumed proportionally more beef, and the second more corn; then, if there were no trade, the powers of the soil would be r 2 212 Tlie Theory of Political Economy. differently taxed, and different ratios of exchange would prevail. Freedom of trade would cause an interchange of corn for beef. Thus I conclude, 'that it is only where the habits of consumi:>tion, ^j^TjK^^ Sas well as the powers of production, are alike, — ^ (that trade brings no advantage. The general effect of foreign commerce is to disturb, to the advantage of a country, the mode in which it distributes its labour. Excluding from view the cost of carriage, and the other expenses of commerce, we must always have true (?>ja'J"»u ^^^ ^1 ^x /^-i If, then, OT2 was originally less in proportion to ^^ than is in accordance with these equations, some labour will be transferred from the production of y to that of £c until, by the increased magni- tude of tn-2, and the lessened magnitude of ^i, equality is brought about. — As in the theory of exchange, so in the theory of production, any of the equations may fail, and the meaning is capable of interpretation. Thus, if the equation cannot be established, it is impossible that the production of both commodities, y and jp, can go on. One of them will be produced at an expen- diture of labour constantly out of proportion to I Theory of Lahour. 213 that at M'liich it may be had by exchange. If Ave could not, for instance, import oranges from abroad, part of the labour of the country would probably be diverted from its present employ- ment to raise them ; but the cost of production would be always above that of getting them indi- rectly by exchange, so that free trade necessarily destroys such a wasteful branch of industry. It is on this principle that we import the whole of our wines, teas, sugar, coffee, spices, and many other articles from abroad. The ratio of exchange of any two commodities Avill be determined by a kind of struggle between the conditions of consumption and production ; but here again failure of the equations may take place. In the all-important equations ^2 expresses the ease with which we may make additions to i/. If we find any means, by ma- chinery or otherwise, of increasing i/ Avithout limit, and Avith the same ease as before, Ave must, in all probability, alter the ratio of exchange ^— in a corresponding degree. But if Ave could ima- gine the existence of a large population, Avithin reach of the supposed country, Avhose desire to consume the quantity i/^ never decreased, hoAvever large Avas the quantity available, then Ave should 214 The Theory of Political Economy. II 'ST I never have — equal to — , and the producers of y would make large gains of the nature of rent. Joint Production. In one of the most interesting chapters of his ' Principles of Political Economy,' Book III, Chap- ter 16, John Stuart Mill has treated of what he calls ' Some peculiar Cases of Value/ Under this title he refers to those commodities which are not produced by separate processes, but are the concurrent or joint results of the same operations. ' It sometimes happens,' he says, ' that two different commodities have what may be termed a joint cost of production. They are both products of the same operation, or set of operations, and the outlay is incurred for the sake of both together, not part for one and part for the other. The same outlay would have to be incurred for either of the two, if the other were not wanted or used at all. There are not a few instances of com- modities thus associated in their production. For example, coke and coal-gas are both produced from the same material, and by the same opera- tion. In a more partial sense, mutton and wool are an example: beef, hides, and tallow: calves and dairy produce: chickens and eggs. Cost of production can have nothing to do with deciding Tlieory of Labour. 215 the values of the associated commodities relatively to each other. It only decides their joint value. .... A principle is wanting to apportion the expenses of production between the two.' He goes on to explain that, since the cost of pro- duction principle fails us, we must revert to a law of value anterior to cost of production, and more fundamental, namely the law of supply and demand. On some other occasion I may perhaps more fully point out the fallacy involved in Mill's idea that he is reverting to an anterior laiv of value, the law of supply and demand, the fact being that in introducing the cost of production prin- ciple, he had never quitted the laws of supply and demand at all. The cost of production is only one circumstance which governs supply, and thus indirectly influences values. Again, I shall point out that these cases of joint production, far from being 'some peculiar cases,' form the general rule, to which it is diffi- cult to point out any clear or important excep- tions. All the great staple commodities at any rate are produced jointly with minor commodities. In the case of corn, for instance, there are the straw, the chaff, the bran, and the different qua- lities of flour or meal, which are products of the same operations. In the case of cotton, there are the seed, the oil, the cotton waste, the refuse, in 216 The Theory of Political Economy. addition to the cotton itself. When beer is brewed the grains regularly return a certain price. Trees felled for timber, yield not only the timber, but the loppings, the bark, the outside cuts, the chips, &c. No doubt the secondary products are often nearly valueless, as in the case of cinders, slag from blast furnaces, &c. But even these cases go to show all the more impressively that it is not cost of production which rules values, but the demand and supply of the products. The great importance of these cases of joint production renders it necessary for us to con- sider how they can be brought under our theory. Let us suppose that there are two commodities X and Y, yielded by one same operation, which always produces them in the same ratio, say of m of X to ^ of Y. It might seem at first sight as if this ratio would correspond to the ratio of the degrees of productiveness, as shown a few pages above that we might say m ^2 _ 2/1 n ^1 A\^ and thus arrive at the conclusion that things jointly produced would always exchange in the ratio of productiveness. But tliis would be en- tirely false, because that equation can only he established ivhen there is freedom of producing 07ie or the other, at each application of a new incre- ment of labour. It is the freedom of varying the Theory of Labour. 217 quantities of each that allows of the produce being- accommodated to the need of it, so that the ratio of the degrees of utility, of the degrees of pro- ductiveness, and of the quantities exchanged are brought to equality. But in cases of joint pro- duction there is no such freedom ; the one sub- stance cannot be made without making a certain fixed proportion of the other, which may have little or no utility. It will easily be seen, however, that such cases are brought under our theory by simply aggre- gating together the utilities of the increments of the joint products. If cLv cannot be produced without dy, these being the products of the same increment of labour, dl, then the ratio of produce to labour cannot be written otherwise than as dx + dy d!~' It is impossible to divide up the labour and say that so much is expended on producing X, and so much on Y. But we must estimate separately the utilities of da/ and dy, by multiplying by their clu dtj degrees of utility -^ and —- % and we then have d.v dy the aggregate ratio of utility to labour as du^ dcV ,dii^ dy dcV dl dy dl It is plain that we have no equation arising out of these conditions of production, so that the ratio 218 The Theory of Political Economy. of exchange of X and Y will be governed only by the degrees of utility. But if we compare X and Y with a third commodity Z, as regards its pro- duction, Ave shall arrive at the equation dui dcV clu^ dy _ du^ dz dx dl dy dl dz dl In other words, the increment of utility obtained by apptying an increment of labour to the pro- duction of Z, must equal the sum of the incre- ments of utility which would be obtained if the same increment of labour were applied to the joint production of X and Y. It is evident that the above equation taken alone gives us no infor- mation as to the ratios existing between the quan- tities dx, dy, and dz. Before we can obtain any ratios of exchange we must have the farther equation between the degrees of utility of X and Y, namely du^ dy dii^ dx As a general rule, however, any two processes of production will both yield joint products, so that the equation of productiveness will take the form of a sum of increments of utility on both sides, which we may thus write briefly — dui + du2 + .... = dUn + dUn+-^ + , . . . Such an equation becomes then a kind of equa- tion of condition of which the influence may be very slight regarding the ratio of exchange of Theory of Labour. 219 any two of the commodities concerned. And if in some cases the terms on one side of such an equation are reduced to one or two, it is probably because the other increments of produce are nearly or quite devoid of utility. As in the cases of cinders, chips, sawdust, spent dyes, potatoe stalks, chaff, &c., &c., almost every process of industry yields refuse results, of which the utility is zero or nearly so. To solve the subject fully, however, we should have to admit negative utilities, as elsewhere explained, so that the increment of utility from any increment dl of labour would really take the form du^ ± du.2, ± du^ + . . . . The waste products of a chemical works, for in- stance, will sometimes have a low value ; at other times it will be difficult to get rid of them without fouling the rivers and injuring the neighbouring estates; in this case they are discommodities and take tlie negative sign in the equations. Over-production. The theory of the distribution of labour enables us to perceive clearly the meaning of over-produc- tion in trade. Early wTiters on Economics Avere always in fear of a supposed glut, arising from the powers of production surpassing the needs of consumers, so that industry would be stopped, 220 Tlie Theonj of Political Economy. employment fail, and all but the rich would be starved by the superfluity of commodities. The doctrine is evidently absurd and self-contradictory. As the acquirement of suitable commodities is the whole purpose of industry and trade, the greater the supplies obtained the more perfectly industry fulfils its purpose. To bring about a universal glut would be to accomplish completely the aim of the economist, which is to maximise the products of labour. But the supplies must be suitable — that is, they must be in proportion to the needs of the population. Over-production is not possible in all branches of industry at once, but it is possible in some as compared with others. If, by miscalculation, too much labour is spent in producing one commodity, say silk goods, our equations will not hold true. People will be more satiated with silk goods than cotton, woollen, or other goods. They will refuse, therefore, to pur- chase them at ratios of exchange corresponding to the labour expended. The producers will thus receive in exchange goods of less utility than they might have acquired by a better distribution of their labour. In extending industry, therefore, we must be careful to extend it proportionally to all the re- .quirements of the population. The more we can lower the degree of utility of all goods by satiating the desires of the purchasers the better ; but we TJieory of Labour. 221 must lower the degrees of utility of different goods in a corresponding manner, otherwise there is an apparent glut and a real loss of labour. Limits to the Intensity of Labour. I have mentioned (p. 184) that labour may vary either in duration or intensity, but have yet paid little attention to the latter circumstance. We may approximately measure the intensity of labour by the amount of physical force undergone in a certain time, although it is the pain attending that exertion of force which is the all-important element in Economics. Interesting laws have been or may be detected connecting the amount of work done with the intensity of labour. Even where these laws have not been ascertained, long expe- rience has led men, by a sort of unconscious pro- cess of experimentation and inductive reasoning, to select that rate of work which is most advan- tageous. Let us take such a simple kind of work as digging. A spade may be made of any size, and if the same number of strokes be made in the hour, the requisite exertion will vary nearly as the cube of the length of the blade. If the spade be small, the fatigue will be slight, but the work done will also be slight. A very large spade, on the other hand, will do a great quantity of work 222 The Theory of Political Economy. at each stroke, but the fatigue will be so great that the labourer cannot long continue at his work. Accordingly, a certain medium-sized spade is adojDted, which does not overtax a labourer and prevent him doing a full day's work, but enables him to accomplish as much as possible. The size of a spade should depend partly upon the tenacity and weight of the material, and partly upon the strength of the labourer. It may be observed that, in excavating stiff clay, navvies use a small strong spade ; for ordinary garden purposes a larger sj)ade is employed ; for shovelling loose sand or coals a broad capacious shovel is used; and a still larger instrument is employed for removing corn, malt, or any loose light powder. In most cases of muscular exertion the weight of the body or of some limb is of great import- ance. If a man be employed to carry a single letter, he really moves a weight of say a hun- dred and sixty pounds for the purpose of con- veying a letter weighing perhaps half an ounce. There will be no appreciable increase of labour if he carries twenty letters, so that his efficiency will be multiplied twenty times. A hundred let- ters would probably prove a slight burden, but there would still be a vast gain in the work done. It is obvious, however, that we might go on loading a postman with letters until the fatigue Theory of Labour. 223 became excessive ; the maximum useful result would be obtained with the largest load which does not severely fatigue the man, and trial soon decides the weight with considerable accuracy. The most favourable load for a porter was in- vestigated by Coulomb, and he found that most work could be done by a man walking upstairs without any load, and raising his burden by means of his own weight in descending. A man could thus raise four times as much in a day as by carrying bags on his back with the most favourable load. This great difference doubtless arises from the muscles being perfectly adapted to raising the human body, whereas any addi- tional weight throws irregular or undue stress upon them. Charles Babbage, also, in his admi- rable 'Economy of Manufactures,' has remarked on this subject, and has pointed out that the weight of some limb of the body is an element in all calculations of human labour. 'The fatigue produced on the muscles of the human frame,' says Babbage, ' does not altogether depend on the actual force employed in each effort, but partly on the frequency with which it is exerted. The exertion necessary to accom- plish every operation consists of two parts: one of these is the expenditure of force which is necessary to drive the tool or instrument; and the other is the effort required for the motion of 224 The Theory of Political Economy. some limb of the animal producing the action. In driving a nail into a piece of wood, one of these is lifting the hammer, and p-opelling its head against the nail ; the other is raising the arm itself, and moving it in order to use the hammer. If the weight of the hammer is con- siderable, the former part will cause the greatest portion of the exertion. If the hammer is light, the exertion of raising the arm will produce the greatest part of the fatigue. It does therefore happen, that operations requiring very trifling force, if frequently repeated, will tire more effec- tually than more laborious work. There is also a degree of rapidity beyond which the action of the muscles cannot be pressed V It occurred to me, some time since, that this was a subject admitting of interesting inquiry, and I tried to determine, by several series of experiments, the relation between the amount of work done by certain muscles and the rate of fatigue. One series consisted in holding weights varying from one pound to eighteen pounds in the hand while the arm was stretched out at its full length. The trials were two hundred and thirty-eight in number, and were made at inter- vals of at least one hour, so that the fatigue of one trial should not derange the next. The i BaLbage, ' On the Economy of Macliinery and Manufactures,' § 32, p. 30. Theory of Labour. 225 average number of seconds during which each weight could be sustained was found to be as follows — Weight in pounds . . 18 14 10 7 4 2 1 Time in seconds . . 15 32 60 87 148 219 321. If the arm had been thus employed in any kind of useful work, we should have estimated the use- ful effect by the product of the weight sustained and the time. The results would be as follows, in pound-seconds — Weight 18 14 10 7 4 2 1 Useful effect . . .266 455 603 612 592 438 321. The maximum of useful effect would here appear to be about seven pounds, which is about the weight usually chosen for dumb-bells and other gymnastic instruments. Details of the other series of experiments are described in an article in Nature (30th June, 1870, vol. ii. p. 158). I undertook these experiments as a mere illus- tration of the mode in which some of the laws forming the physical basis of Economics might be ascertained. I was unaware that Professor S. Haughton had already, by experiment, arrived at! a theory of muscular action, communicated to the] Royal Society in 1862. I was gratified to find| that my entirely independent results proved to be in striking agreement with his principles, as 226 TJie Theory of Political Economy. was pointed out by Professor Haughton in two articles in Nature'^. I am not aware that any exact experiments upon walking or marching have been made, but, as Professor Haughton has remarked to me, they might easily be carried out in the movements of an army. It would only be necessary, on each march Avhich is carried up to the limits of en- durance, to register the time and distance passed over. Had we a determination of the exact rela- tions of time, space, and fatigue, it would be possible to solve many interesting problems. For instance, if one person has to overtake another, what should be their comparative rates of walk- ing? Assuming the fatigue to increase as the square of the velocity multiplied by the time, we easily obtain an exact solution, showing that the total fatigue will be least when one person walks twice as quickly as he whom he wishes to overtake. In different cases of muscular exertion we shall find different problems to solve. The most advan- tageous rate of marching will greatly depend upon k Vol. ii. p. 324 ; vol. iii. p. 289. See also Haughton's ' Prin- ciples of Animal Mechanics,' 1873, pp. 444-450. The subject has since been followed up with much care and ability by Professor Francis E. Nipher, of the "Washington University, St. Louis, Mis- souri, U.S. Details of his experiments will be found in the American Journal of Science, vol. ix, pp. 130-7, vol. x. etc, ; Nature, vol. xi. pp. 25G, 276, etc. Theory of Lahour. 227 whether the loss of time or the fatigue is the most imjDortant. To march at the rate of four miles an hour would soon occasion enormous fatigue, and could only be resorted to under circumstances of great urgency. The distance passed over would hear a much higher ratio to the fatigue at the rate of three, or even two and a half miles an hour. But, if the speed were still further re- duced, a loss of strength would again arise, owing to that expended in merely sustaining the body, as distinguished from that of moving it forward. The Economics of Labour will constantly in- volve questions of this kind. When a work has to be completed in a brief space of time, work- men may be incited by unusual reward to do far more than their usual amount of work ; but so high a rate would not be profitable in other cir- cumstances. The fatigue alwaj^s rapidly increases when the speed of work passes a certain point, so that the extra result is far more costly in reality. In a regular and constant employment the greatest result will always be gained by such a rate as allows a workman each day, or each week at the most, to recover all fatigue and recommence with an undiminished store of energy. Q 2 CHAPTER VI. THEORY OF RENT. Accepted Opinions concerning Rent. The general correctness of the views put forth in preceding chapters derives great probabiUty from their close resemblance to the Theory of Rent, as it has been accepted by English writers for nearly a century. It has not been usual to state this theory in mathematical symbols, and clumsy arithmetical illustrations have been em- ployed instead; but it is easy to show that the fluxional calculus is the branch of mathematics which most correctly applies to the subject. The Theory of Rent was first discovered and clearly stated by James Anderson in a tract pub- lished in 1777, and called 'An Inquiry into the Nature of the Corn Laws, with a view to the Corn Bill proposed for Scotland.' An extract from this work may be found in MacCulloch's edition of the 'Wealth of Nations,' p. 453, giving a most Theonj of Rent . 229 clear explanation of the effect of the various fer- tility of land, and showing that it is not the rent of land which determines the price of its produce, but the price of the produce which determines tlie rent of the land. The following- passage must be given in Anderson's own words ^ : — * ... In evei'y country there is a variety of soils, differing considerably from one another in point of fertility. These we shall at present sup- pose arranged into different classes, which we shall denote by the letters A, B, C, D, E, F, &c., the class A comprehending the soils of the greatest fertility, and the other letters expressing different classes of soils, gradually decreasing in fertility as you recede from the first. Now, as the expense of cultivating the least fertile soil is as great, or greater than that of the most fertile field, it neces- sarily follows, that if an equal quantity of corn, the produce of each field, can be sold at the same price, the profit on cultivating the most fertile soil must be much greater than that of cultivating the others; and as this continues to decrease as the sterility increases, it must at length happen, that I the expense of cultivating some of the inferior soils I will equal the value of the whole produce.' The theory really rests upon the principle, which I have called the Law of Indifference, that for the same commodity in the same market there can a * Inquiry,' &c. p. 45 ; note. 230 The Theory of Political Economy. only be one price or ratio of exchange. Hence, if different qualities of land yield different amounts of produce to the same labour, there must be an excess of profit in some over others. There will be some land which will not yield the ordinary wages of labour, and which will, therefore, not be taken into cultivation, or if, by mistake, it is cultivated, will be abandoned. Some land will just pay the ordinary wages ; better land will yield an excess, so that the possession of such land wi ll become a matter of competition, and the owner will be able to exact as rent from the cultivators the whole excess above what is suffi- cient to pay the ordinary wages of labour. There is a secondary origin for rent in the fact, that if more or less labour and capital be applied to the same portion of land, the produce will not increase proportionally to the amount of labour. It is quite impossible that we could go on con- stantly increasing the yield of one farm without limit, otherwise Ave might feed the Avhole country upon a single farm. Yet there is no definite limit ; for, by better and better culture we may always seem able to raise a little more. But the last increment of produce will come to bear a smaller and smaller ratio to the labour required to pro- duce it, so that it soon becomes, in the case of all land, undesirable to apply more labour. MacCulloch has given, in his edition of the Theory of Rent. 23l 'Wealth of Nations'^,' a supplementary note, in which he explains, with the utmost clearness and scientific accuracy, the nature of the theory. This note contains by far the best statement of the theory, as it seems to me, and I will therefore quote his recapitulation of the principles which he establishes. ' 1. That if the produce of land could always be increased in proportion to the outlay on it, there would be no such thing as rent. ' 2. That the produce of land cannot, at an average, be increased in proportion to the outlay, but may be indefinitely in- creased in a less proportion. ' 3. That the least productive portion of the outlay, which, speaking generally, is the last, m ust yield the ordinary profits of stock. And ' 4. That all which the other portions yield more than this, being above ordinary profits, is rent.' A most satisfactory account of the theory is also given in James Mill's 'Elements of Political Economy,' a work which I never read without admiring its brief, clear, and powerful style. James Mill constantly uses the exj^ression dose of capital 'The time comes,' he says, 'at which it is neces- sary either to have recourse to land of the second b New edition, 1839, p. 444. 232 The Theory of Political Economy. quality, or to apply a second dose of capital less productively upon land of the first quality/ He evidently means by a dose of ccqntal a little more capital, and though the name is peculiar, the meaning is simply that of an increment of capital. The number of doses or increments mentioned is only three, but this is clearly to avoid prolixity of explanation. There is no reason why we should not consider the whole capital divided into many more doses. The same general law which makes the second dose less productive than the first, will make a hundredth dose, speaking generally, less productive than the preceding ninety-ninth dose. Theoretically speaking, there is no need or possibility of stopping at any limit. A mathe- matical law is in theory always continuous, so that the doses considered are indefinitely small and indefinitely numerous. I consider, then, that James Mill's mode of expression is exactly equi- valent to that which I have adopted in earlier parts of this book. As mathematicians have in- vented a precise and fully recognised mode of expressing doses or increments, I know not why we should exclude language from Economics Avhich is found convenient in all other sciences. It is mere pedantry to insist upon calling that a dose in Economics, which in all the other sciences is called by the perfectly established and expressive term increment. Theory of Rent. 233 The following are James Mill's general conclu- sions as to the nature of Rent ^. 'In applying capital, either to lands of various degrees of fer- tility, or in successive doses to the same land, some portions of the capital so employed are attended with a greater produce, some with a less. That which yields the least, yields all that is"J necessary for re-imbursing and rewarding the capi-^ talist. The capitalist will receive no more than this remuneration for any portion of the capital Avhich he employs, because the competition of others will prevent him. All that is yielded above this remuneration the landlord will be able to appro- priate. Rent, therefore, is the difference between the return yielded to that portion of the capital which is employed upon the land with the least effect, and that which is yielded to all the other portions employed upon it with a greater effect.' Symholic Statement of the Theory. The accepted Theory of Rent, as given above, needs little or no alteration to adapt it to ex- pression in mathematical symbols. For doses or increments of capital I shall substitute increments of labour, partly because the functions of capital remain to be considered in the next chapter, and partly because James Mill, J. S. Mill, and c 'Elements,' p. 17. 234 The Theory of Political Economy. MacCulloch hold the application of capital to be synonymous with the application of labour. This assumption is implied in James Mill's statement (p. 13); it is expressly stated in J. S. Mill's 'First Fundamental Proposition concerning the Nature of Capital d;' and MacCulloch adds a foot-note ^ to make it clear, that as all capital was originally produced by labour, the application of additional capital is the application of additional labour. ' Either the one phrase or the other may be used indiscriminately/ This doctrine is in itself alto- gether erroneous, but H will not be erroneous to assume as a mode of simplifjdng the problem that the increments of labour applied are equally as- sisted by capital. It is a separate and subsequent problem to determine how rent or interest arises when the same labour is assisted by diiferent quantities of capital. I shall suppose that a certain labourer, or, what comes to exactly the same thing, a body of labourers, expend labour on several different pieces of ground. On what principle will they distribute their labour between the several pieces ? Let us imagine that a certain amount has been spent upon each, and that another small portion, aZ, is going to be applied. Let there be two pieces of land, and let Aaj^, A.r2» t>e the incre- ments of produce to be expected from the pieces fl Book i. chapter 5, § 1. e ' AVealth of Nation!?/ p. 445. Theory of Rent. 235 respectively. They will naturally apply the labour to the land which yields the greatest result. So long as there is any advantage in one use of labour over another, the most advantageous will certainly be adopted. Therefore, when they are perfectly satisfied with the distribution made, the increment of produce to the same labour will be equal in each case; or we have To attain scientific accuracy, we must decrease the increments infinitely, and then we obtain the equation — dl ~ dl Now represents the ratio of produce, or the productiveness of labour, as regards the last in- crement of labour applied. We may say, then,i that whenever a labourer or body of labourers distribute their labour over pieces of land with perfect economy, the final ratios of produce to labour ivill he equcd. We may now take into account the general law, that when more and more labour is ap- plied to the same piece of land, the produce ultimately does not increase proportionately to dor the labour. This means that the function -y~ dl diminishes without limit towards zero after .v has 236 The Theory of Political Economy. passed a certain quantity. The whole produce of a piece of land is 1000 >i 262 The Theory of Political Economy. The wear and loss of the precious metals in a civilised country is probably not more than -—^ part annually, including plate, jewellery, and money in the estimate, so that the average invest- ment will be for 200 years. It is curious that, if we regard a quantity of gold as wearing away annually by a fixed percentage of what remains, the duration of some part is infinite, and yet the average duration is finite. Some of the gold pos- sessed by the Romans is doubtless mixed with what we now possess ; and some small part of it will be handed down as long as the human race exists. Fixed and Circulating Capital. Economists have long been accustomed to distin- guish capital into the two kinds, fixed and circu- lating. Adam Smith called that circulating which passes from hand to hand, and yields a revenue by being parted with. The fact of being frequently exchanged is, however, an accidental circumstance which leads to no results of importance. Ricardo altered the use of the terms, applying the name circidating to that which is frequently destroyed, and has to be reproduced. He says unequivocally g — *In proportion as fixed capital is less durable, it approaches to the nature of circulating capital. g ' On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,' cliap. 1, § 5, third edition, p. 36. Theory of Capital. 263 It will be consumed, and its value reproduced in a shorter time, in order to preserve the capital of the manufacturer.' Accepting this doctrine, and carrying it out to the full extent, we must say that no precise line can be drawn between the two kinds. The difference is one of amount and degree.' The duration of capital may vary from a day to several hundred years ; the most circulating is the least durable ; the most fixed the most durable. Free and Invested Capital. I believe that the clear explanation of the doc- trine of capital requires the use of a term /"ree capital, which has not been hitherto recognised by economists. By free capital I mean the wages of labour, either in its transitory form of money, or its real form of food and other necessaries of life. The ordinary sustenance requisite to support labourers of all ranks when engaged upon their work is really the true form of capital. It is quite in agreement with the ordinary language of commercial men to say, not that a factory, or dock, or railway, or ship, is cajfital, but that it represents so much capital', sunk in the enterprise. To invest capital is to spend ' money, or the food and maintenance which money purchases, upon the completion of some work. The capital remains invested or sunk until the work ^. laiw^ / 264 The Theory of Political Economy. has returned profit, equivalent to the first cost, Avith interest. Much clearness would result from making the language of Economics more nearly coincident with that of commerce. Accordingly, I would not say that a railway isjixed capital, but that capital is 'ifixecl in the raihvay. The capital is not the rail- Iway, but the food of those who made the railway. I Abundance of free capital in a country means that j there are copious stocks of food, clothing, and every [article which people insist upon having — that, in short, everything is so arranged that abundant subsistence and conveniences of every kind are forthcoming without the labour of the country being much taxed to provide them. In such cir- cumstances it is possible that a part of the labourers of the country can be employed on works of which the utility is distant, and yet no one will feel scarcity in the present. Unifoy^mity of the Rate of Interest. A most important principle of this subject is, thatyree capital can he indifferently employed in any branch or kind of industry. Free capital, as we have just seen, consists of a suitable assortment of all kinds of food, clothing, utensils, furniture, and other articles which a community requires for its ordinary sustenance. Men and families consume Theory of Capital. 265 much the same kind of commodities, whatever may be the branch of manufacture or trade by which they earn a living. Hence there is nothing in the nature of free capital to determine its employment to one kind of industry rather than another. The / very same wages, whether we regard the money! wages, or the real wages purchased with the money, will support a man whether he be a mechanic, a weaver, a coal miner, a carpenter, a mason, or any other kind of labourer. The necessary result is, that the rate of interest for free capital will tend to and closely attain uniformity in all employments. Tlie market for capital is like all other markets: there can he hut one 2'>'t"ice for one article at one time. It is a case of the Law of Indifference (p. 98). Now the article in question is the same, so that its price must be the same. Accordingly, as is well known, the rate of interest, when freed from considerations of risk, trouble, and other interfering causes, is the same in all trades; and every trade will employ || capital up to the point at which it just yields the \\ current interest. If any manufacturer or trader employs so much capital in supporting a certain amount of labour that the return is less than in other trades, he will lose ; for he might have obtained the current rate by lending it to other traders. 266 The Theory of Political Economy. General Expression for the Rate of Interest. We may obtain a general expression for the rate of interest yielded by capital in any employment provided that we may suppose the produce for the same amount of labour to vary as some continuous function of the time elapsing between the expen- diture of the labour and the enjoyment of the result. Let the time in question be t, and the produce for the same amount of labour the func- tion of t denoted by Ft, which may be supposed always to increase with t. If we now extend the time to t + /J., the produce will be F{t+ a^), and the increment of produce F [t-\- a ^) — Ft. The ratio which tliis increment bears to the increment of investment of capital will determine the rate of interest. Now, at the end of the time t, we might receive the product Ft, and this is the amount of capital which remains invested Avhen we extend the time by a^. Hence the amount of increased investment of capital is At . Ft; and, dividing the increment of produce by this last expression, we have F {t+ At) -Ft 1^ At "" Ft' When we reduce the magnitude of At infinitely, the limit of the first factor of tlie above expression is the differential coefficient of Ft, so that we find the rate of interest to be represented by Theory of Capital. 267 dFt 1^ , F^ dt ' Ft ^^' Ti ' The interest of capital is, in other words, the rate of increase of the 'produce divided hy the ivhole produce ; but this is a quantity which must rapidly approach to zero, unless means can he found of continually maintaining the rate of increase. Unless a body moves with a rapidly increasing speed, the space it moves over in any unit of time must ulti- mately become inconsiderable compared with the whole space jiassed over from the commencement. There is no reason to suppose that industry, gene- rally speaking, is capable of returning any such vastly increasing produce from the greater appli- cation of capital. Every new machine or other great invention will usually require a fixation of capital for a certain average time, and may be capable of paying interest upon it ; but when this average time is reached, it fails to afford a return to more prolonged investments. To take an instance, let us suppose that the pro- duce of labour in some case is proportional to the interval of abstinence t ; then we have say Ft = a .t, in Avhich a is an unknown constant. The differen- tial coefficient i^'^ is now a ; and the rate of interest 1^^ or —or-; or the rate of interest . varies in'-'^^t'^^ Ft at t ' versely as the time of investment. ' ? ' '^li/ 268 The Theory of Political Economy. Dimension of Interest. The formula which we obtained in the preceding section, has been subjected to close criticism by an eminent mathematician, who proposed several alternative formulae, but finally accepted my solu- tion of the question as correct. As Professor Adamson, however, has also raised some objections to the formula, it seems desirable to explain its meaning and mode of derivation more fully than was done in the first edition. In the first place, as regards the theory of dimen- sions the formula is clearly correct. The rate of interest expresses the ratio which the annual sum paid per annum for the l9an of capital bears to the capital. The interest, and the capital are \ quantities of the same nature, their ratio being an (^ abstract number. Dividing by length of time rate of interest will have the dimension T~^. Or we may put it in this way — Interest is paid per annum, or per month, or per other unit of time, and the less the magnitude of this unit, the less must be the numerical expression of the rate of interest. Simple interest at five per cent, per annum is 0-416 .... per cent, per month, and so on. Hence time enters negatively, and the dimen- sion of the rate of interest will be T~^. Or, again, we may state it thus symbolically — The capital advanced may be taken as liaving the dimension Theory oj Capital. 269 If; the annual return has the dhnensions MT. y*^^^ Dividing the former by the latter we obtain M MT = T- F't Now the formula -^^ clearly agrees with this result ; for the denominator is a certain unknown function of the time of advance of the capital t. We may assume that it can be expressed in a finite series of the powers of t, and the numerator, being the differential coefficient of the same function, will be of one degree of power less than Ft. Hence the dimensions of the formula will be rpn ) ^'- rp ) or T- It must be carefully remembered that it is the rate of interest which has the dimension T~^, not interest itself, which being simply commodity of some kind, has the dimension of commodity, namely If, of the same nature, and having the same dimensions. The function of capital is simply this, that labour which would produce certain commodity m^, if that commodity were needed immediately for the satis- faction of wants, is applied so as to j^roduce m^ after the lapse of the time t. Tlie reason for this deferment is that m 2 usually exceeds mi, and the difference or interest m. 2- m^, is commodity having the same dimensions as mj. Hence the rate of interest, apart from the question of time, would be 270 The Theory of Political Economy. 0712 — mi, divided by Wi, and the quantities being of the same nature, the ratio will be an abstract number devoid of dimensions. But the time for which the results of labour are foregone is as important a matter as the quantity of commodity. The amount of deferment is on-^^t, so that the rate of interest is m^—m,-^ divided by m-^t, which will have the dimension J'~\ Exactly the same result would be obtained, however, if we regarded the use of capital from a different point of view. Capital and deferment of consumption are not needed only in order to increase production, that is to say, the manufacture of goods ; they are needed also to equalise con- summation, and to allow commodity to be consumed when its utility is at the highest point. Now, when certain commodity is consumed within an interval of time, the utility produced will, as we have seen, possess the dimensions MUT~^T, or MU. Sup- pose that instead of being consumed within that interval, the commodity is held in hand for a time, before being consumed at all. Then the amount of deferment of utility will be proportional both to the interval of time over which it is deferred, and to the utility which is deferred. Thus the amount of deferment will have the dimensions MUT. The increase of utility due to deferment will clearly have the same dimensions as were pre- viously determined, namely MU. Hence the ratio Tlieory of Capital. 271 of this increase to the amount of deferment, will have the dimensions TfYrr ^^ ^~^' ^^^ *^^^^ result corresponds with the dimension of the rate of interest as otherwise reached. Peacock on the Dimensions of Interest. The need of some care in forming our conceptions of these quantities is strikingly illustrated hy the fact that not quite fifty years ago so profound and philosophic a mathematician as the late Dean Peacock completely misapprehended the matter. In the first edition of his celebrated and invaluable 'Treatise on Algebra,' published in 1830, he gives (j» 111, p. 91) the interest of money as an example of a quantity of three dimensions, and one which may be represented by a solid. He says — ' If p represent the principal or sum of money lent or forborne, r the rate of interest (of £l for one year), and t the number of years, then the interest ac- cumulated or due will be represented by prt\ for if r be the interest of £l for one year, p r will be the interest of a sum of money denoted by p for one year, and therefore p r t will be the amount of this interest in t years, no interest being reckoned upon interest due : such would be the result accord- ing to the principles of Arithmetical Algebra. ' If we now suppose j^ ^' i represented respectively 272 The llieory of Political Economy. by lines, which form the adjacent edges of a paral- lelopipedon, the solid thus formed will represent the interest accumulated or due: in other words, it will represent whatever is represented by the general formula 'prt when specific values and sig- nifications are given to its symbols : for in what- ever manner we may suppose any one of the symbols of jj r t to vary, the solid will vary in the same proportion. 'The lines which we assume to represent units of j9, r, and t, are perfectly arbitrary, whether they are made equal to each other or not : this is clearly the case with ^ and t which are quantities of a dif- ferent nature: and the third quantity is likewise different from the other two, being an abstract numerical quantity : for it expresses the relation between the interest of £1 and £1, or between the interest of £100 and £100, which is the quotient of the division of one quantity by another of the same nature : thus, if the interest be 5 per cent., then r = yIo ^^ Fo • if ^ P^^' cent., then r = ^ or ^ : and similarly in other cases: the line, therefore, which is assumed to represent the abstract unit to which r is referred, is independent of the lines which represent units of ]) and of t, and may therefore be assumed at pleasure, equally with those lines. ' The lines which represent p and t form a rect- angular area, which is the geometrical repre- Theorij of Ca/pital 273 sentatioii of their product: the third quantity r, being merely numerical, may either be represented by a line, as in the case just considered, when a solid parallelopipedon is made the representative of prt\ or we may consider the area ])t as repre- senting the product i^rt when r=l, and that this product in any other case is represented by a rect- angle which bears to the rectangle ])t the ratio of r to 1 : this may be effected by increasing or diminishing one of the sides of the rectangle in the required ratio: the product prt may therefore be correctly represented either by a solid or an area, Avhen one of the factors is an abstract number.' The conclusion at which he arrives is a lame one, for he thinks that the same kind of quantity may be represented indiffereritly by a solid or an area. The fact is that Peacock confused a product \ \ of three factors with a quantity of three dimensions. ! \ He took these dimensions as if they were, say il/= money, /? = rate of interest, and T=tmiQ. If we simply multiply these together, as Peacock first does, we get a quantity apparently of three dimensions, MR T. If according to Peacock's sub- sequent idea we take R to be an abstract nu- merical quantity, then we have tAVO dimensions left, namely, MT, He overlooks the fact that the rate of interest involves time negatively, although he describes r as ' the rate of interest (of £l for one year).' Correctly stated, the dimensions of j)rt, 274 The Theory of Political Economy. the quantity of interest are M xT'^ >iT ov M, that is simply the dimension of the money advanced. If you say, for instance, that the simple interest of £300 at 5 per cent, per annum for five years is £75, there remains no reference in this result to time : £75 is simply £75, and is of exactly the same nature as the £300 which bore the interest. That Peacock subsequently discovered error, or at least difficulty, in this section, is rendered pro- bable by the fact that he omitted the illustration altogether in his second edition ; but he does not, so far as I have observed, give any explanation. Tendency of Profits to a Minimum. It is one of the favourite doctrines of Economists since the time of Adam Smith, that as society progresses and capital accumulates, the rate of profit, or more strictly speaking, the rate of interest, tends to fall. The rate will always ultimately sink so low, they think, that the inducements to further accumulation will cease. This doctrine is in strik- ing agreement with the result of the somewhat abstract analytical investigation given above. Our formula for the rate of interest shows that unless there be constant progress in the arts, the rate must tend to sink towards zero, supposing accumu- lation of capital to go on. There are sufficient statistical facts, too, to confirm this conclusion Theory of Capital. 275 historically. The only question that can arise is as to the actual cause of this tendency. Adam Smith vaguely attributed it to the com- petition of capitalists, saying, ' The increase of stock which raises wages, tends to lower profit. When the stocks of many rich merchants are turned into the same trade, their mutual com- petition naturally tends to lower its profit; and when there is a like increase of stock in all the different trades carried on in the same society, the same competition must produce the same effect in them allii.' Later economists have entertained different views. They attributed the fall of interest to the rise in the cost of labour. The produce of labour, they said, is divided between capitalists and labourers, and if it is necessary to give more to labour, there must be less left to capital, and the rate of profit will fall. I shall discuss the validity of this theory in the final chapter, and will only remark here, that it is not in agreement with the view which I have ventured to take concerning the origin of interest. I consider that interest is determined ])y the increment of produce which it enables a labourer to obtain, and is altogether independent of the total return which he receives for this labour. Our formula (p. 267) shows that the rate of interest will be greater as the whole produce 'i ' Wealth of Nations,' book i. chapter 9, second paragraph. T 2 276 The Theory of Political Economy. Ft is less, if the adyantage of more capital, mea- sured by F't, remains unchanged. In many ill- governed countries, where the land is wretchedly tilled, the average produce is small, and yet the rate of interest is high, simply because the want of security prevents the due supply of capital : hence more capital is urgently needed, and its price is high. In America and the British Colonies the produce is often high, and yet interest is high, because there is not sufficient capital accumulated to meet all the demands. In England and other old countries the rate of interest is generally lower because there is an abundance of capital, and the urgent need of more is not actually felt. I conceive that the returns to capital and labour are independent of each other. If the soil yields little, and capital will not make it yield more, then both wages and interest will be low, provided that the capital be not attracted away to more profitable employment. If the soil yields much, and capital will make it yield more, then both wages and interest will be high ; if the soil yields much, and capital will not make it yield more, then wages will be high and interest low, unless the capital finds other investments. But the sub- ject is much complicated by the interference of rent. When we speak of the soil jdelding much, we must distinguish between the whole yield and the final rate of yield. In the Western States of Theory of CajjltaL 277 America the land yields a large total, and all at a high final rate, so that the labourer enjoys the result. In England there is a large total yield, but a small final yield, so that the landowner re- ceives a large rent and the labourer small wages. The more fertile land having here been long in cultivation, the wages of the labourer are mea- sured by what he can earn by cultivating sterile land which it only just pays to take into cul- tivation. Advantage of Cajntal to Industry. We must take great care not to confuse the rate of interest on capital with the whole ad- vantage which it confers on industry. The rate of interest depends on the advantage of the last increment of capital, and the advantages of pre- vious increments may be greater in almost any ratio. In considering the laws of utility, we found that an article possessing an immensely great total utility, for instance corn or Avater, might have a very low final degree of utility, because our need of it was almost entirely satisfied ; 3^et the ratio of exchange always depends u23on; the final, not the previous degree of utility. The I case is the same with capital. Some capital may be indispensable to a manufacture ; hence the benefit conferred by the capital is indefinitely great, and were there no more capital to be had, 278 The Theory of Political Economy. the rate of interest which could be demanded, assuming the article manufactured to be neces- sary, would be almost unlimited. But as soon as ever a larger supply of capital becomes avail- able, the prior benefit of capital is overlooked. As free capital is always the same in quality, the second portion may be made to replace the first if needful : hence capitalists can never exact from labourers the whole advantages which their capital confers — they can exact only a rate determined by the advantage of the last increment. A lender of capital cannot say to a borrower who wants £3,000 — 'I know that £1,000 is indispensable to your business, and therefore will charge you 100 per cent, interest upon it; for the second £1,000, which is less necessary, I will charge 20 per cent. ; and as upon the third £1,000 you can only earn the common profit, I will only ask 5 per cent.' The answer w^ould be, that there are many people only earning 5 per cent, on their capital who would be glad to lend enough at a small advance of interest ; and it is a matter of indifference who is the lender. The general result of the tendency to uniformity of interest is, that employers of capital always get it at the lowest prevailing rate; they always borrow the capital wdiicli is least necessary to others, and either the labourers themselves, or the public generally as consumers, gather all the Theory of Cajjital. 279 excess of advantage. To illustrate this result, let distances along the line ox, in Fig. XIII, mark quantities of capital employing in any branch of industry a fixed number of labourers. Let the area of the curve denote the whole produce of labour and capital. Thus to the capital, on, re- sults a produce measured by the area of the curvi- linear figure between the upright lines oij and qn. But the amount of increased produce which would FiqXJir be due to an increment of capital would be mea- sured by the line qn, so that this will represent F't (p. 267). The interest of the capital will be its amount, on, multiplied by the rate qn, or the area of the rectangle oq. The remainder of the produce, jj^t?/, will belong to the labourer. But had less capital been available, say not more than om, its rate of interest would have been measured by j)m, the amount of interest by the rectangle op, 280 The Theoivj of Political Economy. while the labourer must have remained contented with the smaller share, imy. I will not say that the above diagram represents with strict accuracy the relations of capital, produce, wages, rate of interest, and amount of interest ; but it may serve roughly to illustrate their relations. I see no way of representing exactly the theory of capital in the form of a diagram. Are Articles in the Consumers hands Capital f The views of the nature of capital expressed in this chapter generally agree with those enter- tained by Ricardo and various other economists; but there is one point in which the theory leads 'me to a result at variance with the opinions of almost all writers. I feel quite unable to adopt the opinion that the moment goods pass into the possession of the consumer they cease altogether to have the attributes of capital. This doctrine descends to us from the time of Adam Smith, and has generally received the undoubting assent of his followers. The latter, indeed, have gene- rally omitted all notice of such goods, treating them as if no longer under the view of the eco- nomist. Adam Smith, although he denied the possessions of a consumer the name of capital, took care to enumerate them as part of the stock of the community. He divides into three portions Theory of Cajjital. 281 the general stoclv of a country, and wliile the second and third portions are fixed and circulating capital, the first is described as follows i — 'The first is that portion which is reserved for immediate consumption, and of which the cha- racteristic is, that it affords no revenue or profit. It consists in the stock of food, clothes, household furniture, &c., wdiich have been purchased by their proper consumers, but which are not yet entirely consumed. The whole stock of mere dwelling- houses too subsisting at any one time in the country, make a part of this first portion. The stock that is laid out in a house, if it is to be the dwelling-house of the proprietor, ceases from that moment to serve in the function of a capital, or to afford any revenue to its owmer. A dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitant ; and though it is, no doubt, extremely useful to him, it is as his clothes and household furniture are useful to him, which, however, make a part of his expense, and not of his revenue.' MacCulloch, indeed, in his edition of the ' Wealth of Nations' (p. 121), has remarked upon this pas- sage, that ' The capital laid out in building houses for such persons is employed as much for the public advantage as if it were vested in the tools or instruments they make use of in their respec- tive businesses.' He appears, in fact, to reject the > 'Wealth of Nations,' book ii. chap. 1, twelfth paragraph. 282 The Theory of Political Economy. doctrine, and it is surprising that economists have generally acquiesced in Adam Smith's view, though it leads to manifest contradictions. It leads to the absurd conclusion, that the very same thing ful- filling the very same purposes will be capital or not according to its accidental ownership. To procure good port wine, it is necessary to keep it for a number of years, and Adam Smith would not deny that a stock of wine kept in the wine merchant's possession for this purpose is capital, because it yields him revenue. If a consumer buys it when new, and keeps it to improve, it will not be capital, although it is evident that he gains the same profit as the merchant by buy- ing it at a lower price. If a coal merchant lays in a stock of coal when cheap, to sell when dear, it is capital ; but if a consumer lays in a stock, it is not. Adam Smith's views seem to be founded upon a notion, that caj)ital ought to give an annual revenue or increase of wealth li]^ a field yields a crop of corn or grass. Speaking of a dwelling- house, he says : ' If it is to be let to a tenant for rent, as the house itself can produce nothing, the tenant must always pay the rent out of some other revenue, which he derives either from labour, or stock, or land. Though a house, tlierefore, may yield a revenue to its proprietor, and thereby serve in the function of a capital to him, it cannot yield Theory of Cajjikd. 283 any to the public, nor serve in the function of a capital to it, and the revenue of the whole bodv of the people can never be in tlie smallest degree increased by it. Clothes and household furniture, in the same manner, sometimes yield a revenue, and thereby serve in the function of a capital to particular persons. In countries where mas- querades are common, it is a trade to let out masquerade dresses for a night. Upholsterers fre- quently let furniture by the month, or by the year. Undertakers let the furniture of funerals by the day and by the week. Many people let furnished houses, and get a rent, not only for the use of the house, but for that of the furniture. The revenue, however, which is derived from such things, must always be ultimately drawn from some other source of revenue k.' This notion that people live upon a kind of net revenue flowing in to them appears to be derived from the old French economists, and plays no part in modern Economics. Nothing is more requisite than a dwelling-house, and if a person cannot hire a house at the required spot, he must find capital to build it. I think that no economist would refuse to count among the fixed capital of the country that which is sunk in dwelling-houses. Capital is sunk in farming that we may have ^ 'Wealth of Nations,' book ii. chap. 1, twelfth paragraph continued. 284 The Theory of Political Economy. bread, in cotton-mills that we may he clothed, and why not in houses that we may be lodged? If land yields an annual revenue of corn and wool, milk, beef, and other necessaries, houses yield a revenue of shelter and comfort. The sole end of all industry is to satisfy our wants; and if capital is requisite to supply shelter, and fur- niture and useful utensils, as it undoubtedly is, why refuse it the name which it bears in all other employments ? Can we deny that the property of a hotel- keeper is capital and yields a revenue to its owner? Yet it is invested in pots and pans, and beds, and all kinds of common furniture. In America it is not uncommon for people to live all their lives in hotels or boarding-houses ; and we might readily conceive the system to advance until no one would undertake housekeeping except as a profession. Now if we allow to what is in- vested in hotels, hired furnished houses, lodgings, and the like, the nature of capital, I do not see how we can refuse it to common houses. We should thus be led into all kinds of absurdities. For instance, if two people live in their own houses, these are not, according to present opinion, capital; if they find it convenient to exchange •houses and pay rent each to the other, the houses are capital. At great watering-places lilce Brighton it is a regular business to lease houses, fill them Theory of Cajjihd. 285 with furniture, and then let them for short periods as furnished houses : surely it is capital which is embarked in the trade. If a private individual happens to own a furnished house wiiich he does not at the time want, and lets it, can we refuse to regard liis house and furniture as capital? Whenever one person provides the articles and another uses them and pays rent, there is capital. Surel}^, then, if the same person uses and owns them, the nature of the things is not funda- mentally different. There is no need for a money payment to pass ; but every person who keeps accurate accounts should debit those accounts with an annual charge for interest and depreciation on Avhat he has invested in house and furniture. Housekeeping is an occupation involving wages, capital and interest, like any other business, ex- cept that the owner consumes the whole result. By accepting this view of the subject, we shall avoid endless difficulties. What, for instance, shall we say to a theatre? Is it not the product of capital? Can it be erected Avithout capital? Does it not return interest, if successful, like any cotton mill, or steam vessel? If the economist agrees to this, he must allow, on similar grounds, that a very large part of the aggregat-e capital of the country is invested in theatres, hotels, schools, lecture rooms, and institutions of various kinds which do not belong to the industry of the 286 The Theory of Political Economy. country, taken in a narrow sense, but which none the less contribute to the wants of its inha- bitants, which is the sole object of all industry. I may add, that even the food, clothes, and many other possessions of extensive classes are often indubitable capital ; they are bought upon credit, and interest is undoubtedly paid for the capital sunk in them by the dealers. There is hardly, I suppose, a man of fashion in London who walks in his own clothes, and the tailors find in the practice a very profitable investment for capital. Except among the poorer classes, and often among them, food is seldom paid for until after it is con- sumed. Interest must be paid one way or another upon the capital thus absorbed. Whether or not ! these articles in the consumers' hands are capital, I at any rate they have capital invested in them — j that is, labour has been spent upon them of which ! the whole benefit is not enjoyed at once. I might also point out at almost any length, that the stock of food, clothing, and other requi- site articles of subsistence in the country are a main part of capital according to the statements of J. S. Mill, Professor Fawcett, and most other economists. Now what does it really matter if these articles happen to lie in the warehouses of traders, or in private houses, so long as there is a stock ? At present it is the practice for farmers and corn merchants to hold the produce of the Theory of Capital. 287 harvest until the public buys and consumes it. Surely the stock of corn is capital. But if it were the practice of every housekeeper to buy up corn in the autumn and keep it in a private granary, would it not serve in exactly the same way to subsist the population ? Would not every- thing go on exactly the same, except that every one would be his own capitalist in regard to corn in place of paying farmers and corn merchants for doing the business ? CHAPTER VIII. ONCLUDING REMARKS. The Doctrine of Population. It is no part of my purpose in this work to attempt to trace out, with any approach to com- pleteness, the results of the theory given in the preceding chapters. When the views of the nature of Value, and the general method of treating the subject by the application of the fluxional cal- culus, have received some recognition and accept- ance, it will be time to think of results. I shall therefore only occupy a few more pages in point- ing out the branches of economic doctrine which have been passed over, and in indicating their connection with the theory. The doctrine of population has been conspicu- ously absent, not because I doubt in the least its truth and vast importance, but because it forms no part of the direct problem of Economics. I do not remember to have seen it remarked that Concluding Remarks. 289 it is an inversion of the problem to treat labour as a varying- quantity, when we originally start with labour as the first element of production, and aim at the most economical employment of that labour. The problem of Economics may, as \ it seems to me, be stated thus: — Given, a cer- tain ^oimlation, with various needs and powers of production, in possession of certain lands and other sources of material: required, the mode of employ- ing their lahour lohich will maximise the utility of\ the produce. It is what mathematicians would call a change of the variable, afterwards to treat that labour as variable which was originally a fixed quantity. It really amounts to altering the conditions of the problem so as to create at each change a new problem. The same results, how- ever, would generally be obtained by supposing the other conditions to vary. Given, a certain population, we may imagine the land and capital at their disposal to be greater or less, and may then trace out the results which Avill, in many respects, be applicable respectively to a less or greater population with the original land and capital. Relation of Wages and Profit. There is another inversion of the problem of Economics which is generally made in works upon the subject. Although labour is the start- u 290 The Theory of Political Economy. ing-point in production, and the interests of the labourer the very subject of the science, yet eco- nomists do not progress far before they suddenly turn round and treat labour as a commodity which is bought up by capitalists. Labour be- comes itself the object of the laws of supply and demand, instead of those laws acting in the dis- tribution of the products of labour. Economists have invented, too, a very simple theory to deter- mine the rate at which capital can buy up labour. The average rate of wages, they say, is found by dividing the whole amount of capital appropriated to the payment of wages by the number of the labourers paid ; and they wish us to believe that this settles the question. But a little consider- ation shows that this proposition is simply a truism. The average 7'ate of tvages must he equal to what is appropynated to the purpose divided by the num- ber ivho share it. The whole question will con- sist in determining how much is appropriated for the purpose; for it certainly need not be the whole existing amount of circulating capital. Mill distinctly says, that because industry is limited by capital, we are not to infer that it always reaches that limit ^ ; and, as a matter of fact, we often observe that there is abundance of capital to be had at low rates of interest, while there are also large numbers of artisans starving for want '^ ' Principles of Political Economy,' book i. chap. 5, § 2. Concluding Remarks. 291 of employment. The wage-fund theory is there- fore illusory as a real solution of the problem, though I do not deny that it may have a certain limited and truthful application, to be shortly considered. Another part of the current doctrines of Eco- nomics determines the rate of profit of capitalists in a very simple manner. The whole produce of industry must be divided into the portions paid as rent, taxes, profits, and wages. We may exclude taxes as exceptional, and not very im- portant. Rent also may be eliminated, for it is essentially variable, and is reduced to zero in the case of the poorest land cultivated. We thus arrive at the simple equation — Produce = profit + Avages. A plain result also is drawn from the formula; for we are told that if wages rise, profits must fall, and vice versd. But such a doctrine is radi- cally fallacious; it iyivolves the attempt to deter- mine tivo unknoivn quantities from one equation. I grant that if the produce be a fixed amount, then if wages rise profits must fall, and vice versd. Something might perhaps be made of this doc- trine if Ricardo's theory of a natural rate of wages, that which is just sufficient to support the labourer, held true. But I altogether ques- tion the existence of any such rate. The wages of working men in this kingdom u 2 292 The Theory of Political Economy. vary from perhaps ten shillings a week up to forty shillings or more; the minimum in one part of the country is not the minimum in another. It is utterly impossible, too, to define exactly what are the necessaries of life. I am inclined, there- fore, to reject altogether the current doctrines as to the rate of wages; and even if the theory held true of any one class of labourers separately, there is the additional difficulty that we have to account for the very different rates which prevail in dif- ferent trades. It is impossible that we should accept for ever Ricardo's sweeping simplification of the subject, involved in his assumption, that there is a natural ordinary rate of wages for com- mon labour, and that all higher rates are merely exceptional instances, to be explained away on other grounds. The view which I accept concerning the rate of wages is not more difficult to comprehend than the current one. It is that the ivages of a vjorking man are ultimately coincidevit vjith what he produces, after the deduction of rent, taxes, and the interest of capital. I think that in the equation Produce = profit + wages, the quantity of produce is essentially variable, and j that profit is the part to be first determined. If we resolve profit into wages of superintendence, insurance against risk, and interest, the first part is really wages itself; the second equalises the Concluding Remarks. 293 result in different employments ; and the interest is, I believe, determined as stated in the last chapter. The reader will observe the important qualification, that wages are only ultimately thus determined — that is, in tlie long run, and q\\ the average of any one branch of employment. The fact that workmen are not their own capi- talists introduces complexity into the problem. The cajiitalists, or entrepy^eneurs, enter as a distinct interest. It is they who project and manage a branch of production, and form estimates as to the expected produce. It is the amount of this produce which incites them to invest capital and buy up labour. They pay the lowest current rates for the kind of labour required ; and if the pro- duce exceeds the average, those who are first in the field make large profits. This soon induces competition on the part of other capitalists, who, in trying to obtain good workmen, will raise the rate of wages. Competition will proceed until the point is reached at which only the market rate of interest is obtained for the capital invested. At the same time wages will have been so raised, that the workmen reap the whole excess of produce, unless indeed the price of the produce has fallen, and the public, as consumers, have the benefit. Whether this latter result will follow or not, depends upon the number of labourers who are fitted for the work. Where much skill and educa- 294 The Theory of Political Economy. tion is required, extensive competition will be impossible, and a permanently high rate of wages will exist. But if only common labour is requisite, the price of the goods cannot be maintained, wages will fall to their former point, and the public will gain the advantage of cheaper supplies. It will be observed, that this account of the matter involves the temporary application of the wage-fund theory. It is the proper function of capitalists to sustain labour before the result is accomplished, and as many branches of industry require a large outlay long previous to any definite result being arrived at, it follows that capitalists must undertake the risk of any branch of industry where the ultimate profits are not accurately known. But we now have some clue as to the amount of capital which will be appropriated to the payment of wages in any trade. The amount of capital will depend upon the amount of anticipated profits, and the competition to obtain proper workmen will strongly tend to secure to the latter all their legitimate share in the ultimate produce. For instance, let a number of schemes be set on foot for laying telegraphic cables. The ultimate profits are very uncertain, depending upon the utility of the cables as compared with their cost. If capitalists make a large estimate of those pro- fits, they will apply much capital to the imme- Concluding Remarks. 295 diate manufacture of the cables. All workmen competent at the moment to be employed will be hired, and high wages j^aid if necessary. Every man who has peculiar skill, knowledge, or experi- ence, rendering his assistance valuable, will be hired at any requisite cost. At this point it is the Avage-fund theory that is in operation. But, after a certain number of years, the condition of affairs Avill be totally different. Capitalists will learn, by experience, exactly wdiat the profits of cables may be ; that amount of capital will be thrown into the work which finds the average amount of profits, and neither more nor less. The cost of transmit- ting messages will be reduced by competition, so that no excessive profits will be made by any of the parties concerned ; the rate of wages, there- fore, of every species of labour Avill be reduced to the average proper to labour of that degree of skill. But if there be required in any branch of the work a very special kind of skilled and experienced labour, it will not be affected by competition in the same way, and the wages or salary Avill remain high. I think that it is in this way quite possible to reconcile theories which are at first sight so dif- ferent. The wage-fund theory acts in a wholly temporary manner. Every labourer ultimately receives the due value of his produce after paying a proper fraction to the capitalist for the remunera- 296 Tlie Theory of Political Economy. tion of abstinence and risk. At the same time workers of different degrees of skill, receive very different shares according as they contribute a com- mon or a scarce kind of labour to the result. Professor HearrCs Views. I have the more pleasure and confidence in putting forward these somewhat heretical views concerning the general problem of Economics, in- asmuch as they are nearly identical with those arrived at by Professor Hearn, of Melbourne Univer- sity. It would be a somewhat long task to trace out exactly the coincidence of opinions between us, but he certainly adopts the notion that the capitalist merely buys u|) temporarily the prospects of the concern he manages and the labourers he employs. Thus he says — ' In place of having a share in the undertaking, the co-operator sells for a stipulated price his labour or the use of his capital. The case therefore comes within the ordinary conditions of exchange ; and the price of labour and the price of capital are determined in the same manner as all other questions of price are determined. Yet the general character of the partnership is not destroyed. Although each particular transaction amounts to a sale, yet for the continuance of the business a nearer connection arises. Although the whole loss of the undertaking, if the undertaking Concluding Remarks. 297 be unfortunate, falls upon the last proprietor, and the interests of the other parties have been previ- ously secured, yet each such loss prevents a repeti- tion of the transaction from which it arose. The capital which ought to have been replaced, and which if replaced would have afforded the means of employing labour and of defraying the interest upon other capital, has disappeared ; and thus the market for labour and for capital is by so much diminished. Both the labourer and the interme- diate capitalist are therefore directly concerned in the success of every enterprise towards which they have contributed. If it be successful, they feel the advantage; if it be not successful, they feel in like manner the loss. But this community of interest is no longer direct, but is indirect merely; and it arises not from the gains or the losses of partners, but from the increased ability, or the diminished demands, of customers ^.' This passage really contains a statement of the views which I am inclined wholly to accept; but no passages which I can select will convey an adequate notion of the enlightened view which Professor Hearn takes of the industrial structure of society in his admirable work on Plutology. b ' Plutology : or the Theory of the Efforts to satisfy human wants.' By William Edwai'd Hearn, LL.D., Professor of History and Political Economy in the University of Melbourne. London (Macmillan and Co.), 1864, p. 329. 298 The Theory of Political Eco7iomy. The Noxious Injiuence of Authority. ■ I have but a few lines more to add. I have ven- tured in tlie preceding pages to call in question not a few of the favourite doctrines of economists. To me it is far more pleasant to agree than to differ ; but it is impossible that one who has any regard for truth can long avoid protesting against doctrines which seem to him to be erroneous. There is ever a tendency of the most hurtful kind to allow opinions to crystallise into creeds. Especially does this tendency manifest itself when some eminent author, enjoying power of clear and comprehensive exposition, becomes recognised as an authority. His works may perhaps be the best which are extant upon the subject in question ; they may combine more truth with less error than we can elsewhere meet. But 'to err is human,' and the best works should ever be open to criticism. If, instead of welcoming inquiry and criticism, the admirers of a great author accept his writings as authoritative, both in their excellences and in their defects, the most serious injury is done to truth. In matters of philosophy and science author- ity has ever been the great opponent of truth. A despotic calm is usually the triumph of error. "In the republic of the sciences sedition and even anarchy arc beneficial in the long run to the greatest happiness of the greatest number. Concluding Remarks. 299 In the physical sciences authority has greatly lost its noxious influence. Chemistry, in its brief existence of a century, has undergone three or four complete revolutions of theory. In the science of light, Newton's own authority was decisively set aside, though not until after it had retarded for nearly a century the progress of inquiry. Astro- nomers have not hesitated, within the last few years, to alter their estimates of all the dimensions of the planetary system, and of the universe, be- cause good reasons have been shown for calling in question the real coincidence of jn-evious mea- surements. In science and philosophy nothing must be held sacred. Truth indeed is sacred ; but, as Pilate said, 'What is truth?' Show us the un- doubted infallible criterion of absolute truth, and we will hold it as a sacred inviolable thing. But in the absence of that infallible criterion, we have all an equal right to grope about in our search of it, and no body and no school nor clique must be allowed to set up a standard of orthodoxy which shall bar the freedom of scientific inquiry. I have added these words because I think there is some fear of the too great influence of author- itative writers in Political Economy. I protest against deference for any man, whether John Stuart IMill, or Adam Smith, or Aristotle, being allowed to check inquiry. Our science has become far too 300 The Theory of Political Economy. much a stagnant one, in which opinions ratlier than experience and reason are appealed to. There are valuable suggestions towards the im- provement of the science contained in the works of such writers as Senior, Cairnes, Macleod, Cliffe- Leslie, Hearn, Shadwell, not to mention a long series of French economists from Baudeau and Le Trosne down to Bastiat and Courcelle-Seneuil ; but they are neglected in England, because the excellence of their works w^as not comprehended by David Ricardo, the two Mills, Professor Fawcett, and others who have made the orthodox Ricardian school what it is. Under these circumstances it is a positive service to break the monotonous repeti- tion of current questionable doctrines, even at the risk of new error. I trust that the theory now given may prove accurate ; but, however this may be, it will not be useless if it cause inquiry to be directed into the true basis and form of a science which touches so directly the material welfare of the human race. FINIS. APPENDIX I. List of Mathematico-Economic Books, Memoirs, and other published writings. Remarks upon the purpose and some of the contents of this list will be found in the preface to the second edition of this book. 1720. HuTCHESON (Francis). An Inquiry into the Original of our Ideas of Beauty and Virtue. London. 8vo. (3rd Edition, 1729, xxii, 304 pp.) 1728. HuTCHESON (Francis). An Essay on the Nature and Conduct of the Passions and Affections, with Illustrations on the Moral Sense. London. 8vo. xxiv, 333 pp. 1765. Beccaria (Cesare). Tentativo analitico sui contrab- bandi. Estratto dal foglio periodico intitolato : II Gaffe (vol. i. Brescia). Cu&todi's Scrittori classici Italiani di Economia politica. Parte Moderna, vol. xii, pp. 235-241. Milano, 1804. 1771. Anonymous. An Essay on the Theory of Money. London. 8vo. IGl pp. (attributed to Major-General Henry Lloyd). 1776. CoNDiLLAC (Etienne Bonnot de). Le Commerce et le Gouverneraent. Paris. 1781. Anonymous (A. N. Isnard). Traite des Eichesses. Londres et Lausanne. 2 vols. 8vo. xxiv, 344, 327 pp. 1792. SiLio (Guglielmo). Saggio sull' Influenza dell' Analisi nelle scienze politiche ed economiche. (In vol. v. of the collec- tion Nuova Raccolta d' opuscoli di Autori Siciliani. Palermo). 1793. Lang. Historische Entwickelung der Deutschen Steuerver- fassung. Riga. 1801. Canard (Nicolas Frangois). Principes d'Economie Poli- tique; Ouvrage couronne par I'lnstitut. Paris. 8vo, 384 pp. 1801. Canard (Nicolas Fran9ois). M^moire sur la question 302 Appendix I. s'il est vrai que, clans un pays agricole, toute espfece d'impot retombe sur les proprietaires fouciers. Paris. 1802. Brisson (B.) Essai sur la Navigation. Paris. 1802. Keoncke (C). Versuch einer Theorie des Fuhrwerks mit Anvendung auf dem Strassenbau. Giessen. 8vo. 1804. Keoncke (C). Das Steuerwesen nacli seiner Natur und seinen Wirkungen untersucht. Giessen. 8vo. 1807. Lang. Ueber den obersten Grundsatz der Politischen Oeconomie. Eiga. 8vo. 1815. BuQUOT (G. Graf von). Theorie der Nationalwirthschaft nach einem neuen Plane, und nach mehreren eigenen Ansichten dai'gestellt. Leipzig; hierzu 3 Nachtrage, 1816-18. 4to. 524 pp. 1824. Thompson (T. Perronet). Westminster Review, No. I, vol. i, pp. 171-205. Article on the Instrument of Exchange. (Re- printed in 1830, 27 pp.) 1825. Fuoco (Francesco). Saggi Economici. Prima Serie. 2 torn, 8vo. Pisa, 1825-27. 1829. Whewell (William). Mathematical Exposition of some i Doctrines of Political Economy. Cambridge Philosophical ' Transactions, vol. iii, pp. 191-230. Cambridge. 4to. 1831. Waleas (Auguste). De la Nature de la Richesse et de I'origine de la Valeur. Paris. 8vo. xxiv, 334 pp. 1831. Whewell (William). Mathematical Exposition of the (Leading Doctrines in Mr. Ricardo's ' Principles of Political Economy and Taxation.' Cambridge Philosophical Transactions, vol. iv, pp. 155-198. Cambridge. 4to. 1832. Lube (D. G.) Argument against the Gold Standard. London. 8vo. iv 192 pp. 1838. CouENOT (Augustin). Recherches sur les Principes Math6- matiques de la Theorie des Richesses. Paris. 8vo. xi, 198 pp. 1838. Tozee (John). Mathematical Investigation of the Effect of Machinery on the Wealth of a Community in which it is employed, and on the Fund for the Payment of Wages. Cam- bridge Philosophical Transactions, vol. vi, pp. 507-522, Cambridge. 4to. Mathematico-Economic Books. 303 1839. Hagen (Karl Heiuricli). Von der Staat^lelue unci von der Vorbereitung zum Dienste in der Staatsverwaltung. Aufsatze gerichtet an angehende Cameralisten, zuuachst an seine Herren Zuhorer, von K. H. H. Koenigsherg. 8vo. 477 pp. 1840. Anonymous. On Cui-rency. London (Charles Knight and Co.). 8vo. viii, 43, xxi pp. 1840. TozER (John). On the Effect of the Non-Residence of Landlords, &c., on the "Wealth of a Community. Cambridge Philosophical Ti'ansactions, vol. vii, pp. 189-196. Cambridge. 4to. 1842. Thompson (T. Perronet). Exercises, Political and others. Vol. iii, pp. 295-343. On the Instrument of Exchange. See 1824, Thompson. 1844. DuPUiT (Etienne Juvenal). De la Mesure de TUtilit^ des Travaux Publics. Annales des Ponts et Chauss^es. 2^ Eerie. Tome viii, pp. 332-375. Paris. 8vo. 1844. Hagen (K. H.). Die Nothwendigkeit der Handelsfreiheit fiir das Nationaleinkommen, mathematisch nachgewiesen. Koe- nigsberg. 8vo. 32 pp. 1844. Hagen (K. H.). System of Political Economy. Translated ' from the German by John Prince Smith. London. 8vo. viii, 88 pp. 1844. De Quincy (Thomas). Logic of Political Economy. Edinburgh, London. 8vo, 260 pp. 1847. BoKDAS. De la Mesure de I'TItiUt^ des Travaux Publics. Annales des Ponts et Chauss^es, 1847, l^r semestre, 2^^ s6rie, tome xiii, p. 249. Paris. 8vo. 1848. Mill (John Stuart). Principles of Political Economy, with some of their applications to Social Philosophy. London. 2 vols. 8vo. (Book iii, chapters xvii, xviii. See 3rd Edition, 1852, vol ii. pp. 143-4. 1849. EsMENARD Bu Mazet (Camille). Nouveaux Principes d'Economie Politique. Paris. 8vo. ix, 456 pp. 1849. DuPUiT (E. J.). De I'lnfluence des Peages sur I'Utilit^ des Voies de Communication. Annales des Ponts et Chaussees. No. 207. 2e serie, 1849, ler semestre. Paris. 8vo. (Pp. 170-248). 304 Ap'pendix I. 1850. MiNAED, De I'llsage Gratuit des Constructions stabiles aux Frais de I'Etat. Annales des Fonts et Chauss^es, 2^ serie, 1 er semestre. Paris. 8vo. (p. 27.) 1850. Laednek (Dionysius), Railway Economy. London. 8vo. (Chapter xiii.) 1850. Whewell (William). Mathematical Exposition of Certain Doctrines of Political Economy. Second and Third memoirs, Cambridge Philosophical Transactions. Vol. ix. pp. 128-149, and Part II, pp. [1-7]. Cambridge. 4to. 1851. EsMENAED DU Mazet. De la Valeur : Lettre a M. J. Gamier. Paris. 8vo. 1851. De Thunen. Recherches sur I'Influence que le Prix des Grains, la Eichesse du Sol, et les Impots exercent sur les Systfemes de Culture. Traduit par Laverrifere. Paris. 8vo. 1854. WoLKOFF (Mathieu). Opuscules sur la Rente Fonciere. Paris. 8vo. 231 pp. 1854. GossEN (Hermann Heinrich). Eutwickelung der Gesetze des menschliohen Verkehrs, und der daraus fliessenden Eegeln fiir menschliches Handeln. Braunschweig. 8vo. 278 pp. 1855. Jennings (Richard, M.A.). Natural Elements of Political Economy. London. 8vo. 275 pp. 1856. Bennee. Th^orie Math^matique de I'Economie Politique. •1856. "WoLKOFF (M.). Journal des Economistes, Aout, 1856. Paris. 8vo. 1857. De Thunen. Le Salaire N"aturel, et son rapport au taux de rinter^t. Traduit de I'Allemand par Mathieu WolkofF. Paris. 1857. Macleod (Henry Dunning). The Elements of Political Economy. London. 8vo. 1857. Boccaedo (Gerolamo). Dizionario della Economia Politica e Commercio, &c. Torino. 4to. (Vol. ii. pp. 653-9, etc.) 1860. Du Mesnil-Maeigny. Les Libre Echangistes et les Pro- tectionnistes Concili^s. 8vo. Paris. 1861. WoLKOFF (M.). Lectures d'Economie Politique Rationelle. • Paris. 12 mo. !1862. Jevons (William Stanley). Notice of a General Mathe- matical Theory of Political Economy. Report of the 32nd mcetinsf of the British Association for the Advancement of Mathematico-Economic Books. 305 Science, held at Cambridge in October, 1862. Reports of Sec- tions, p. 158. London, 1863. 8vo. 1862. Macleod (H. D.). On the Definition and Nature of the Science of Political Economy. Report of the 32 nd meeting of the British Association, &c. Reports of Sections, pp. 159-161. 1863. CouRNOT (Augustin). Principes de la Theorie des Richesses. \i\ Paris. 8vo. iv, 527 pp. 1863. Macleod (H. D.). A Dictionary of Political Economy: Biographical, Bibliographical Historical, and Practical. Vol. i. London. 8vo. (Article Credit, p. 567.) 1863. Du Mesnil-Maeigny. Catechisme de I'Economie politicpie basee sur des principes rationnels. Paris. 18mo. 355 pp. 1863. Mangoldt (H. von). Grundriss der Volkswirthschafts- lehre. Stuttgart, xvi, 224. 1864. Fauveau (G.). Considerations Mathematiques sur la Theorie de I'lmpot. Paris. 8vo. 64 pp. 1865. Knapp (George Friedrich). Zur Priifung der Untersuchungen Thiineu's iiber Lohn und Zinsfuss im isolirten Staate. Braun- schweig. Svo. 35 pp. 1866. Jevons (W. S.). Brief Account of a General Mathematical ' Theory of Political Economy. Journal of the Statistical Society ,j of London, June, 1866. Vol. xxix, pp. 282-287. London.^' 8vo. 1867. Courcelle-Seneuil (J. G.). Traito Th6orique et Pratique d'Economie Politique. 2'"^ Ed. Paris. 8vo. Tome I, livre i, chap. 2. 1867. Fauveau (G.). Considerations math^matiqucs sur la theorie de la valeur. Journal des Ecouomistes. 3^ s6rie, 2° annee, t. V, pp. 31-40. 1867. Brentako (L. J.). Ueber J. H. von Thiineu's Naturge- miissen Lohn und Zinsfuss. Gottingen. 61 pp. 1868. Rau (Kai-1 Heinrich). Grmidsiitze der Volkswirthshafts- lehre. Achte Ausgabe. Erste Abtheilung, p. 368. Leii^zig tend Heidelberg. 8vo. 1868. Jexkin (Fleeming). Trades Unions. How far Legitimate, North British Review, March 1858. 8vo. (Foot note.) X 306 Appendio' I. 1868. WoLKOFF (Mathieu). Precis cl'economie politique~ration- nelle. Paris. In-18, 329 pp. 1869. Fauveau (G.). Etude sur la theoiie de Timpot. Journal des Economistes, 3** s^rie, 4^ aun6e, t. xiii, pp. 391-403. 1869. Fauveau (G.). L'impot sur le revenu du capital et sur le revenu du travail. Journal des Economistes, 3^ serie, 4^ annee, t. xvi, pp. 466-468. 1869. Schumacher (H.). Ueber J. H. von Thiinen's Gesetz voni naturgemassen Arbeitslohue. Rostock. 84 pp. 1870. Jenkin (Fleeming). The Graphic Representation of the Laws of Supply and Demand, and their application to Labour. Recess Studies, edited by Sir Alexander Grant. Edinburgh. 8vo. (pp. 151-185). 1871. Jevons (AV. S.). The Theory of Political Economy. 8vo. London, xvi, 267 pp. 1871. Jenkin (Fleeming). On the Principles which regulate the incidence of Taxes, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edin- burgh. Session 1871-72. (pp. 618-631). 1871. Fauveau (G.). Rendement maximum de l'impot indirect. Journal des Economistes. 3'^ serie, 6^ annee, t. xxiv, pp. 445-8. 1872. Marchand (J.). Recherche sur la methode a adopter pour la discussion des elements de la statistique. Journal des Ac- tuaires frangais. T. i, pp. 267-273 and 393-409. 1873. BiNG oa Petersen. Bestemmelse af den rationelle Arbeids- lon samt nogle Bemserkninger om Oekonomiens Methode. Na- tionaloekonomisk Tidsskrift. Forste Bind, p. 296. Goi^enhagen. 1873. Marchand (J.). Recherche sur la methode {\ adopter pour la discussion des elements de la statistique. Journal des Actuaires frangais. T. ii, pp. 58-78 et 251-263. 1873. Petersen, Frederiksen, etc. Nationaloekonomisk Foren- ing. Diskussion om Oekonomiens Methode. Nationaloekononiisk Tidsskrift, Maanedsskrift for Oekonomi, etc. Andet Bind, p. 248. Cojienhagen. 1873. Pochet (L6on). Geometric des jeux de Bourse. Journal des Actuaires francais. T. ii, pp. 153-160. 1873. Lefevre (H.). Physiologic et m<^canique sociales. Journal des Actuaires franrais. T. ii, pp. 211-250 et 351-388. Mathematico-Economic Boohs. 307 1874. Walras (Leon). Principe d'une theoric niath^matique de r^change. Menioire lu a 1' Academic des sciences morales et poli- tiques (Seaucesdes 16 et 23aout 1873). Orleans. 8vo, 24 pp. 1874. Jevons et Walkas. Correspondance. Extrait du Journal desEconomistes (nuni^ro du 15 jnin 1874). Paris. 8vo. 8 pp. 1874. BoccAEDO (Gerolamo). Dizionario Universale della Econ- omia Politica e del Commercio. Milano. 8vo. 1874. Lefevre (H.). Principe de la Science de la Bourse. Methode approuvce par la Chambi-e syndicale des Agents de Change de Paris. Paris. 8vo. 113 pp. 1874. Walras (Leon). Elements d'economie politique pure, ou theorie de la richesse sociale. Premier fascicule. Lausanne, Paris et Bdle. 8vo. viii, 208 pp. 1874. Zanon (Giovanni Antonio). Sulla teoria matematica dello scambio del professore M. L. AValras, lettera al professore Alberto Errera. Estratto dalla Eassegna di Agricoltura^ Indus- tria e Commercio. Padova. 8vo. 7 pp. 1874. Letort (Charles). De I'application des mathematiques a I'etude de I'economie politique. L'Economiste francais, 31 octobre 1874, p. 540. 1874. D'AuLNis DE BouEOUiLL (Johan). Het Inkomen der Maats- chappij. Eene Proeve van theoretische Staathuishoudkunde. Leiden. Svo. xiii, 215 pp. 1874. Lefevre (H.). Physiologic et m^canique sociales. Journal des Actuaires frangais. T. iii, pp. 93-118. 1874. DoRMOY (Emile). Les matiferes premieres. Etablissement des coefficients d'elaboration. Journal des Actuaires frangais. T. iii, pp. 142-162. 1874. AviGDOR (Septime N".), Question d'economie sociale. Journal des Actuaires fran9ais. T. iii, pp. 300-306. 1874. Marchand (J.). Recherche sur la methode a adopter pour la discussion des elements de la statistique. Journal des Actuaires frangais. T. iii, pp. 307-325. 1875. Jevoxs (AV. Stanley). The progress of the mathematical theory of Political Economy, with an explanation of the prin- ciples of the theory. Transactions of the Manchester Statistical Sociely. pp. 1-19. Svo. (Read Nov. 11, 1874.) X 2 308 Appendix I. 1875. Darwin (George H.). The Theory of Exchange Value. Fortnightlj^ Review. New series, Voh xvii, pp. 243-253. London. 8vo. 1875. BoccAEDO (Gerolamo). Del metodo in econoinia j)olitica. Estratto dal Giornale degli Economisti. Paclova. 8vo. 23 pp. 1875. BoccARDO (Gerolamo). L'economia politica odiema come scienza le come ordinamento sociale. Introduzione generale alia Biblioteca dell' Economista. 3^ serie, pp. 1-43. 1875. Ereeea (Alberto). Ajjpunto bibllografico. Elements d'^conomie politique pure par L^on "Walras. Estratto dal giornale La Perseveranza. Milano. 18mo. 16 pp. 1875. BoccAEDO (Gerolamo). Dell' applicazione dei metodi quantitativi alle scienze economiche, statistiche e sociali. Saggio di logica economica. Prefazione al 2° volume della Biblioteca deir Economista. Pp. i.-lxxii. 1875. Whewell (W.). Esposizione matematica di alcune dot- trine di economia politica. Due Memorie. Biblioteca dell' Economista. 3* serie. Vol. ii, pp. 1-65. 1875. CouRNOT (Agostino). Eicerche intoruo ai principii mate- matici della teorica delle ricchezze. Biblioteca dell' Economista. 3a serie. Vol. ii, pp. 67-170. 1875. Jevons ("W. Stanley). La teorica dell' economia politica. Biblioteca dell' Economista. 3''^ serie. Vol. ii, pp. 173-311. 1875. Newcomb (Simon). North American Eeview, No.CCXLIX. Review of Caimes' Logical Method of Political Economy. 1875. PiEESOK (N. G.). Grondbeginselen der Staathuishoud- kunde. Haarlem. 1875-6. 2 vols. 1875. AcHARD (M. A.). Influence des taxes qui frappent les obligations sur leur prix d'nprfes nn taux d6termin6. Journal des Actuaires fran^ais. T. iv, pp. 70-74. 1875. FoNTANEAU (E.). Principes de chrematistique. Journal des Actuaires fran^ais. T. iv, pp. 75-83 et 151-172. 1875. Laurekt (H.). Demonstration simple du principe de M. Menier. Journal des Actuaires francais. T. iv, pp. 84-87 (also jirinted in Menier's Theorie et A2:)plication de I'lm- pot sur le Capital. 2™°. Ed. Paris. 1875. 12mo. Appendice, pp. 607-12). Mathematlco-Economic Boohs. 309 1875. FoNTANEAU (E.) De la valeur. Journal dcs Actuaircs fran^ais. T. iv, pp. 175-199 et 267-277. 1875. Falck (Gr. von). Die Thiinensche Lehre vom Bildungsgesetz des Zinsfusses und vom naturgemassen Arbcitslolni. Leipzig. 55 pp. 1876. "Walras (Leone). Un nuovo ramo della matcmatica. Dell' applicazione delle matematiche aU'ecouomia politica. Estratto dal Griornale degli Economisti. Padova. Bvo. Vol. iii. Fascicolo N. I. Aprile, 1876. 40 pp. 1876. Walras (L^on). Equations de I'ecliange. Equations de la production. Memoires lus a la Societe vaudoise des sciences naturelles. (Stances des l^r et 15 d^cenibre 1875, 19 Janvier et 16 fevrier 1876.) Lausanne. 8vo. 66 pp. 1876. Zambelli (Andrea). La teoria matematica dello scambio del signor Leone "VValras. Lettera diretta al prof. Errera dott. Albei'to. Padova. Gr. in-8. 28 pp. 1876. Jevons ("W. Stanley). The Future of Political Economy. Fortnightly Review, November 1, 1876. vol. xx. pp. 617-631. 1876. Walras (L^on). Equations de la capitalisation. Me- moire lu a la Soci6te vaudoise des sciences naturelles (Seance du 5 juillet 1876). Bvo. 40 pp. 1876. FoNTANEAU (E.). Chrematistique. Journal des Actuaires frangais. T. v, pp. 70-96 et 341-365. 1876. Madsen (C. L.). Den Sandsynlige Lov for den Inter- nationale Telegraftrafik. Copenhagen. 8vo. 1877. Madsen (C. L.). Recherches sur la loi du Mouvemcnt tel6graphique international. Copenhague, Paris. 8vo. ix, 68 pp., avec 10 tableaux. 1877. Jevons (W. Stanley). Le passe et I'avenir de I'economie politique. Les m^thodes. Les economistes contemporains. Le political economy club. Journal des Economistes. Mars 1877. 3e. serie. T. xlv, pp. 325-342. 1877. Walras (Leon). Elements d'economie politique pure, ou theorie de la richesse sociale. Deuxieme fascicule. Lausanne, Paris et Bdle. pp. 209-407. 8vo. 1877. Moll (L. A.). Der "Wcrth. Eine neue Theorie desselbcn. Leipzig. 48 pp. 310 A][)pendi^ I. 1878. AVesteegaard (Harald). Den Saiidsynlige Lov for den Internationale Telegraftrafik Anmeldt af H. W. Natioual- oekonomisk Tidsskrift. Bind xi. Co2)enhagen. Svo. 1878, Du Mesnil-MaeiCtNY. L'^conomie politique devenue science exacte ou les libre-echangistes et les protectionnistes concilies. 3^ edition. Paris. Gr. in-8. 413 pp. 1878. "Waleas (Leone). Teoria matematica della richezza sociale. Quattro memorie lette all' Accademia delle science morali e politiche, a Parigi, ed alia Societa Valdese delle scienze natui'ali, a Losanna. Biblioteca dell' Economista. 3^ serie. Yol. ii, pp. 1289-1388. 1878. "Weisz (Dr. Bela, of Budapestli, Hungary). Die Mathe- niatische Methode in der Nationalcikononiie. Hildebrandt's Jahrbiicher fiir Nationalokonomie und Statifctik. Article VI, vol. xxxi, pp. 295-316. Jena. 1878. NicoLiNi. Un antico Economista Matematica (Ceva). Giornale degli Econoniisti, vol. viii. fasc. 1. Oct. Padova. 8vo. il879. Marshall (Alfred). The Pure Theory of Foreign Trade. The Pure Theory of (Domestic) Values. Cambridge. 8vo. Privately printed. 1826. Thiinen (Johann Heinrich von). Der isolirte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirthschaft und Nationalokonomie, oder Untersuchungen iiber den Einfluss, den die Getreidepreise, der Heichthum des Bodens und die Abgaben auf den Ackerbau ausiiben. Hamburg. 8vo. viii, 290 pp. 1842. Thijnen (J. H. von). Der isolirte Staat, etc. Erster Theil. Rostock. 8vo. xv, 391 pp. 1850. Thunen (J. H. von). Der isolirte Staat, etc. Zweiter Theil. Erste Abtheilung. Der naturgemiisse Arbeitslohn und dessen Yerhiiltniss zum Zinsfuss und zur Landrente. Rostock. Svo. vi, 285 pp. 1863. ThIjnen (J. H. von). Der isolirte Staat. Zweiter Theil. Zweite Abtheilung. Der naturgemussc Arbeitslohn, etc. Rostock. 8vo. ix, 444 pp. APPENDIX II. List of works and papers upon Economical Subjects, by the author of the present book : — 1857. Comparison of the Land and Eailway Policy of New South Wales. The Public Lands of New South Wales. Articles in the Umpire newspaper, 7th April and 23rd June. Sydney, New South Wales. I8G2. Diagram, shewing all the Weekly Accounts of the Bank of England, since the passing of the Bank Act of 1844, with the Amount of Bank of England, Private, and Joint Stock Bank Promissory Notes in Circulation during each week, and the Bank Minimum B,ate of Discount. London. Sheet, 20 x 30 inches, coloured. This Diagi-am represents to the eye all the useful results of tables, containing about 113,000 figures. 1862. Diagram, shewing the Price of the English Funds, the Price of W^heat, the Number of Bankruptcies, and the Ptate of Discount, monthly, since 1731 ; so far as the same have been ascertained. London. Sheet, 20 x 30 inches, coloured. This Diagram is drawn from tables carefully compiled fur the purpose, and containing more than 12,000 figures. Explanatory Notes and References ai"e appended to each Diagram. 18G2. (1) On the Study of Periodic Commercial Fluctuations. With five diagrams. (2) Notice of a general Mathematical Theory of Political Economy. Papers read in the F section of the British Association at the Cambridge Meeting. Report. Procecilings of Sections, pp. 157-8. 312 Appendix II. 1863. A serious Fall in the Value of Gold Ascertained, and its social effects set forth. With two diagrams. London : Edward Stanford, Charing Cross. 8vo. 73 pp. 1865. The Coal Question; an Inquiry concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of our Coal Mines. London and Cambridge: Macmillan & Co. 8vo. xix, 349 pp. 18 0,5. On the Variation of Prices, and the Value of the Currency since 1782. Paper read before the London Statistical Society, May, 1865. Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xxviii, pp. 294-320. With four diagrams. 1866. On the frequent Axitumnal Pressure in the Money Market, and the Action of the Bank of England. Paper read before the Statistical Society, April, 1866. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, vol. xxix, pp. 235-253. 1866. Brief Account of a General Mathematical Theory of Political Economy. (Read at the British Association, 1862.) Journal of the Statistical Society of London, vol. xxix, pp. 282-287. 1866. The Coal Question, &c. Second edition. London. 8vo, xxvi 383 pp. 1866. An Introductory Lecture on the Importance of diffusing a Knowledge of Political Economy. Delivered in Owens College, Manchester, at the opening of the Session of Evening Classes, on October 12. Manchester. 12mo. 35 pp. 1867. Science Lectures for the People. Lecture IX. On Coal : its importance in manufactures and trade. Delivered in the Carpenters' Hall, Manchester, January 16, 1867. (Science Lectures, vol. i, pp. 128-140.) 1867. On the Analogy between the Post-office, Telegraphs, and other systems of Conveyance of the United Kingdom, as regards Government Control. Paper read before the Manchester Statis- tical Society, April, 1867. Transactions, 1866-7, pp. 89-104. 1868. A Lecture on Trades' Societies: their Objects and Policy. Delivered by request of the Trades Unionists' Political Asso- ciation, March 31. Manchester. 8vo. 16 pp. 1868. Lecture on the Probable Exhaustion of our Coal Mines. Boyal Institution of Great Britain. Friday Evening, March 13. 8vo. 7 pp. Ajypendix II. 313 1868. On the International Monetary Convention, and the Intro- duction of an International Currency into this Kingdom. Paper read before the Manchester Statistical Society, May 13. Trans- actions, 1867-8, pp. 79-92. 1868. On the Condition of the Metallic Currency of the United Kingdom, with reference to the Question of International Coinage. Paper read before the Statistical Society of London, November. Journal, &c., vol. xxxi, pp. 426-464, 1869, Letter on the Value of Grold. Economist newspaper, May 8. Reprinted in the Journal of the' Statistical Society of London. December. Vol. xxxii, p. 445, 1869. On the "Work of the Society in Connection with the Questions of the Day. Inaugural Address read before the Manchester Statistical Society, November 10, 1869. Transac- tions, 1869-70, pp. 1-14. 1870. Opening Address of the President of Section F (Economic Science and Statistics), of the British Association for the Ad- vancement of Science, at the Fortieth Meeting, at Liverpool, September, 1870. Report. Transactions of the Sections, pp. 1781-87, Journal of the Statistical Society of London, vol. xxxiii, pp. 309-326. 1870. On Industrial Partnerships, A Lecture delivered under the auspices of the National Association for the Promotion of Social Science, April 5, 1870, London: 1, Adam Street, Adelphi. 12mo. 39 pp. 1871. The Match Tax : a Problem in Finance. London. 8vo. 66 pp. 1871, The Theory of Political Economy. London and New York: Macmillan & Co. 8vo. xvi, 267 pp. 1874, The Progress of the Mathematical Theory of Political Economy, with an Explanation of the Principles of the Theory. Paper read before the Manchester Statistical Society, November 11. Transactions, 1874-5, pp. 1-19, with a diagram, 1875. The Post-office Telegraphs and their Financial Results. Fortnujhtly Review, December 1, vol. xviii. N.S. pp. 826-35. 1875. La Teorica dell' Economia Politica, esposta da W. Stanley Jevons, Biblioteca dell' Economista. 3^ serie. Tomo ii, pp. Y 314 Appenduv II. 175—311. (Translated under the superintendence of Professor Gerolamo Boccaixlo.) 1875. Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. (International Scientific Series, vol. xvii.) London : H. S. King & Co. New York : D. Appleton & Co. Post 8vo. xviii, 349 pp. 1876. La Monuaie et le M^canisme de I'Echange. Paris: Librairie Germer Baillifere et Cie. (BibliothSque Scientifique Inter- nationale, vol. XX.) Svo. viii, 288 pp. 1876. Geld und Geldverkehr. Leijizig : F. A. Brockhaus. (In- ternationale Wissenschaftliche Bibliothek. xxi Band. 8vo. xvi, 359 pp.) 1876. La Moneta ed il Meccanismo dello Scambio. Milano : Fratelli Dumolard. (Biblioteca Scientifica Internazionale. Vol. vi. 8vo. xxix, 319 pp.) 1876. On the United Kingdom Alliance and its Prospects of Sviccess. Paper read before the Manchester Statistical Society, March 8. Transactions, pp. 127-142. 1876. On the Frequent Autumnal Pressure in the Money Market, and the Action of the Bank of England. Paper reprinted from the Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 1866, in the Transactions of the Manchester Statistical Society. Appendix, pp. 17-41. 1876. The Future of Political Economy. Introductory Lecture at the Opening of the Session, 1876-7, at University College, London, Faculty of Arts and Laws. Fortnightly Review, December, vol. xx, pp. 617-631. (See also App. I. 1877. Jevons.) 1877. The Silver Question. A paper read by Hamilton A. Hill, of Boston, before the American Social Science Association at Saratoga, September 5. Boston: published for the Association by A. Williams & Co. pp. 26-32. Reprinted in the London Bankers' Magazine, December. 7 pp. 1878. Science Primers — Primer of Political Economy. London: Macmillan & Co. 18mo. 134 pp. 1878. L'Economie Politique par W. Stanley Jevons, traduite par Henry Gravcz, Ingenicur. Paris: Librairie Germer Bail- liire et Cie. (Bibliothfeque Utile, vol. xliv.) 18mo. 184 pp. Appendix II. 315 1878. Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. London: C. Kegan Paul & Co. Fourth edition. 1878. The Periodicity of Commercial Crises, and its Physical Explanation. Paper read before the F Section of the British Association at the Dublin Meeting, August 19. Report. Transactions of Section F. p. 666. Published in the Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, August, 1878. Vol. vii, pp. 334-342. 1878. Commercial Crises and Sunspots. Article printed in Nature of November 14, vol. xix, pp. 33-37. 1878. Remarks on the Statistical Use of the Arithmometer. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, December, vol. xli, i^p. 597-601. 1879. Methods of Social Reform, No. II. A State Parcel Post, Article in the Contemporary Review of January, vol. xxxiv, pp. 209-229. 1879. Sunspots and Commercial Crises. Nature, April 24, vol. xix pp. 588-590. BY THE SAME AUTHOR. Works on Logic. PKIMEE OF LOGIC. With lUustrations and Ques- tions. New Edition. 18mo. Is. ELEMENTAEY LESSONS IN LOGIC : DEDUC- TIVE AND INDUCTIVE. With Copious Questions and Examples, and a Vocabulary of Logical Terms. Seventh Edition. Fcap. 8vo. 3s. Qd, THE PEINCIPLES OF SCIENCE : a Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method. Third Edition. Crown 8vo, 12s. 6d. (The above three works form a consecutive course of logical text-books.) THE SUBSTITUTION OF SIMILAES THE TRUE PRINCIPLE OF REASONING. Fcap. Bvo. 2s. 6d. Works on Political Economy. THE COAL QUESTION: an Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the probable exhaustion of our Coal Mines. (New Edition in preparation.) Bvo. PEIMEE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY. 18mo. U. Second Edition. MACMILLAN AND CO., LONDON. Elementaey Manual of the Pkinciples or Currency. MONEY AND THE MECHANISM OF EX- CHANGE. Fourth Edition. Crown 8vo. 5s. (International Scientific Series.) C. KEGAN PAUL AND CO. Bedford Street, Strand, London, W.C. Attgnsf, 1879. MacmillaiV &- Co.'s Catalogue of Works in the Departments of History^ Biography^ Travels^ Critical and Literary Essays, Politics, Political and Social Economy^ Law, etc.; a?id Works comiected with Lan- guage. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, (S:c. Albemarle.— FIFTY YEARS OF MY LIFE. By George Thomas, Earl of Albemarle. With Steel Portrait of tlie first Earl of Albemarle, engraved by Jeens. Third and Cheaper Edition. Crown 8vo. "js. 6d. ^' The book is one of the most amusing of its class. . . . These remi- niscences have the charrn a?id flavour of personal experience, and they bring us into direct contact with thepersons they describe." — Edinburgh Review. Anderson.— MANDALAY TO MOMIEN ; a Narrative of the Two Expeditions to Western China, of 1868 and 1875, under Colonel E. B. Sladen and Colonel Horace Browne. By Dr. Anderson, F.R. S.E., Medical and Scientific Officer to the Ex- peditions. With numerous Maps and Illustrations. 8vo. 21.'. " /4 handsome, well-timed, entertaining, and instructive volume." — Academy. "^ pleasant, useful, carefully-writteny and impo7-tant work." — Athen^um. Appleton. — Works by T. G. Appleton :— A NILE JOURNAL. Illustrated by Eugene Benson. Crown 8vo. 6s. SYRIAN SUNSHINE. Crown 8vo. 6j. Arnold. — ESSAYS IN CRITICISM. By Matthew Arnold. New Edition, Revised and Enlarged. Crown Svo. <)s. Atkinson. — an ART TOUR TO NORTHERN CAPITALS OF EUROPE, including Descriptions of the Towns, the Museums, and other Art Treasures of Copenhagen, Christiania, Stockholm, 5,000.8.79. A 2 ^f MCMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Abo, Ilelsint^i'ors, Wihorg, St. Petersburg, Moscow, and Kief. By (. Beavini;i(jn Atkinson. 8vd. i2j. " Allhoii^h the main piirbose of the hook is strictly kept in view, and we ns. Dilke. — GREATER BRITAIN. A Record of Travel in English- speaking Countries during 1866-7. (America, Australia, India.) By Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke, M.P. Sixth Edition. Crown 8vo. 6s. " Many of the subjects discussed in these pages" savs the Daily News, " are of the widest interest, and such as no ?nan who cares for the Juture of his race and of the world can afford to treat with indifference." Doyle. — HISTORY OF AMERICA. By J. A. Doyle. With Maps. i8mo. 4J'. 6d. " Mr. Doyle^s style ?j clear and simple, his facts are accurately stated, and his book is meritoriously free /ro7n prejudice on questions zvkere partisanship runs high amongst us." — Saturday Review. Drummond of Hawthornden : THE STORY OF HIS LIFE AND WRITINGS. By Professor Masson. With Por- trait and Vignette engraved by C. H. Jeens. Crown 8vo. loj. 6d. Duff. — Worlss by M. E. Grant-Duff, M.P., late Under Secretary of State for India : — NOTES OF AN INDIAN JOURNEY. W^ith Map. 8vo. \os. 6d. *' These notes are full of pleasant rcvia-ks and illustrations, borrowed from every kind of source." — Satukd.\y Review. MISCELLANIES POLITICAL AND LITERARY. Svo. \os. bd. Eadie. — life of JOHN EADIE, D.D., LL.D. By James Brown, D.D., Author ot " The Life of a Scottish Probationer." With Portrait. Second Edition. Crown 8vo. 7^-. dd. *' An ably wtitten and characteristic biography." — Times. Elliott. — LIFE OF HENRY VENN ELLIOTT, of Brighton. By JosiAH Bateman, M.A. With Portrait, engraved by Jeens. Extra fcap. Svo. Third and Cheaper Edition. 6j. Elze. — ESSAYS ON SHAKESPEARE. By Dr. Karl Elze, Translated with the Author's sanction by L. Dora Schmitz. Svo. \2S. "A more desirable contribution to criticism has not recently been made." — Athen^um. 8 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN English Men of Letters. Edited by John Morley. a Series of Short Books to tell people what is best worth knowing as to the Life, Character, and Works of some of the great English Writers. In crown 8vo. Price 2s. 6d. each. I. DR. JOHNSON. By Leslie Stephen. ' ' The neio sei-ies opens zv.'ll with Air. Leslie Stephen's sketch of Dr. yohnson. It could hardly have been done better ; and it will convey to the readers for whom it is ititendcd a jiuter estimate of yohnson than either of the. two essays of Lord Macaulay ." — Pall Mall Gazette. IL SIR WALTER SCOTT. By R. H. Hutton. " The tone of the volume is excellent throitghout." — Athen^UM. * ' We could 7iot wish for a more suggestive introduction to Scott and his poems and novels." — Examiner. IIL GIBBON. By J. C. Morison. " As a clear, thought ftd, and attractive record of the life and works of the greatest among the world's historians, it deserves the highest praise," — Examiner. IV. SHELLEY. By J. A. Symonds. " The lovers of this great poet are to be congratulated on having at their co7iitnand so fresh, clear, and intelligent a presentment of the subject, ■written by a man of adequate and wide culture." — Athen/EUM. V. HUME. By Professor Huxley. " It viay fairly be said that no one 7107a living could have expounded IIu7ne with more sy7iipathy or with equal perspicuity." — AtheNj*;um. VL GOLDSMITH. By William Black. " Air. Black brings a fine sympathy and taste to bear in his criticism of Goldsmith's writings as well as i7t his sketch of the incidents of his life." ATHEN/EUM. VIL DEFOE. By W. Minto. ^' Air. AIi7?to's book is careful and accurate in all that is stated, and faithful in all that it suggests. It ■mill repay reading mo7-e than once." -Athen.^um. VIII. BURNS. By Principal Shairp, Professor of Poetry in the University of Oxford. *' It is impossible to desire fairer criticis7?t than Principal Shairp' s }n Burns' s poetry None of the series has given a t7-uer estit?iate either 0/ character or of geriius than /his little volu77ie and all 7vho 1-ead it will be tho7-oughly grateful to the author for this monu7nent to the ge7iius of Scotland's greatest poet." — SPECTATOR. IX. SPENSER. By the Very Rev. the Dean of St. Paul's. "Dr. Church is master of his subject, and writes always with good taste." — Academy. X. THACKERAY. By Anthony Trollope. ' ' Air. Trollope' s sketch is excellently adapted to fufil the purpose op the Scries in which it appears." — Athen^um. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 9 English Men of Letters.— ^^;;//;,?/^;/. JiURKE. Ey John Morlkv. )r,r , , MILTON. By Mark Pattisox. \^{Nearly ready. Others in preparation. Eton College, History of. By H. C. Maxwell Lyte, M.A. With numerous Illustrations by Professor Delamotte, Coloured Plates, and a Steel Portrait of the Founder, engraved by C. II. Jeens. New and cheaper Issue, with Corrections. Medium 8vo. Cloth elegant, zis. " Hitherto no account of the College, with all its associations, has appeared which can compare either in comt'leteness or in interest with this. . . . It is indeed a book worthy of the ancient renoivn oj King Henry's College.''^ — Daily News. " We are at length presented zvith a zvork on England's greatest public school, worthy of the subject of luhich it treats. . . . A really valuable and authentic history of Eton College." — GUARDIAN. European History, Narrated in a Series of Historical Selections from the best Authorities. Edited and arranged by E. M. Sewell and C. M. Yonge. First Series, crown 8vo, 6s. ; Second Series, 1088-1228, crown 8vo. 6s. Third Edition. '" IVe know of scarcely anything," says the GUARDIAN, of this volume, "which is so likely to raise to a higher level the average standard of English education." Faraday. — MICHAEL FARADAY. By J. H. Gladstone, Ph.D., F.R.S. Second Edition, with Portrait engraved by Jeens from a photograph by J. Watkins. Crown 8vo. 4?. 6d. PORTRAIT. Artist's Proof, ^s. Forbes.— LIFE and letters of JAMES david FORBES, F.R.S., late Principal of the United College in the University of St. Andrews. By J. C. Shairp, LL.D., Principal of the United College in the University of St. Andrews ; P. G. Tait, M.A., Professor of Natural Philosophy in the University of Edinburgh; and A. Adams-Reilly, F.R.G.S. 8vo, with Portraits, Map, and Illustrations, \6s. Freeman. — Works by Edward A. Freeman, D.C.L.,LL.D. : — HISTORICAL ESSAYS. Third Edition. 8vo. ioj. 6d. Contents:—/. '■'■The Mythical and Romantic Elements in Early En'-'lish History;" II. '''' The Continuity of English History;" IJl. **The Relations betzveen the Croivns of England and Scotland ;"^ IV. "St. Thomas of Canterbury and his Biograthers ;" V. " The Reign oJ Edward the Third:" VI. "The Holy Roman Empire;" VII. "The Franks and the Gauls;" VIII. "The Early Sieges of Paris;" IX. "Frederick the First, King of Italy ;" X. "The Emperor Frede)-tck the Second;" XI. "Charles the Bold ;" XII. " Presidential Government. lo MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Fre e m an — continued. A SECOND SERIES OF HISTORICAL ESSAYS. 8vo. \Os. bd. The principal Essays are: — "Ancient Greece and Medicroal Italy:" "Mr. Gladstone's IIo?ner and the Homeric As;es :''^ ''''The Historians of Athens:'" *' The Athenian Democracy :" '* Alexander the Great:" ^'Greece duting the Mcuedoniati Period :" ^^Alotnmsens History of Rome :" ** Lucius Cornelius Sulla :" '* The Flavian Cmsars." HISTORICAL ESSAYS. Third Series. [/« the press. COMPARATIVE POLITICS.— Lectures at the Royal Institution. To which is added the " Unity of History," the Rede Lecture at Cambridge, 1872. 8vo. 14^-. THE HISTORY AND CONQUESTS OF THE SARACENS. Six Lectures. Third Edition, with New Preface. Crown 8vo. IS. 6d. HISTORICAL AND ARCHITECTURAL SKETCHES: chiefly Italian. With Illustrations by the Author. Crown 8vo. lOi-. 6d. " LIr. Fieetnan may here be said to give us a series of ''notes on the spot ' in illustration 0/ the intimate relations of History afid Architecture, and this is done in so mastei ly a manner — there is so much freshness, so much kuoiL'ledge so admirably condensed, that zve are alniust tempted to say that lue prefer these sketches to his more elaborate studies." — NoNCON- FORiMIbT. HISTORY OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, from the Foun- dation of the Achaian League to the Disruption of the United States. Vol. I. General Introduction. History of the Greek Federations. 8vo. 21s. OLD ENGLISH HISTORY. \M\\.\i Five Coloured Maps. Fourth Edition. Extra fcap. 8vo., half-bound. 6^. " The book indeed is full of instruction and interest to students oj all ages, and he must be a well-info> med man indeed who will not rise from its perusal with clearer and more accurate ideas of a too much neglected portion of English history." — Spectator. HISTORY OF THE CATHEDRAL CHURCH OF WELLS, as illustrating the History of the Cathedral Churches of the Old Foundation. Crown 8vo. 3^. dd. " The history assumes in Mr. Freeman^ s hands a significance, and, we may add, a practical value as suggestive of %vhat a cathedral ought to be, ivhich make it well worthy of mention." — SPECTATOR. TPIE GROWTH OF THE ENGLISH CONSTITUTION FROM THE EARLIEST TIMES. Crown 8vo. 55. Third Edition, revised. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. ii F r e e m an — continued. GENERAL SKETCH OF EUROPEAN HISTORY. Being Vol. I. of a Historical Course for Schools edited by E. A. Freeman. New Edition, enlarged with Maps, Chroaoloyical Table, Index, &c. i8mo. 3^. dd. " Ji supplies the great want of a good foundation for historical teach- ing. The scheme is an excellent one, and this instalment has been accepted in a way that promises much for the volumes that are yet to appear." — EDUCATIONAL Times. THE OTTOMAN POWER IN EUROPE : its Nature, its Growth, and its Decline. With Three Coloured Maps. Crown 8vo. 7^. 6d. Galileo. — THE private life of GALILEO. Compiled principally from his Correspondence and that of his eldest daughter. Sister Maria Celeste, Nun in the Franciscan Convent of S. Matthew in Arcetri. With Portrait. Crown 8vo. "js. bd. Geddes. — tpie problem of the homeric poems. By W. D. Geddes, LL. D., Professor of Greek in the University of Aberdeen. 8vo. 14s. Gladstone — Works by the Right Hon.W. E. Gladstone, M.P. :— JUVENTUS MUNUl. The Gods and Men ol the Heroic Age. Crown 8vo. cloth. With Map. io.r. 6d. Second Edition. "Seldom," says the Athen^um, "out of the great poetns themselves, have these Divinities looked so majestic and respectable. To read these brilliant details is like standing on the Olympian threshold and gazing at the ineffable brightness within." HOMERIC SYNCHRONISM. An inquiry into the Time and Place of Homer. Crown 8vo. 6^-. " // is impossible not to admire the immense range of thought and inquiry which the author has displayed." — British Quarterly Review. Goethe and Mendelssohn (1821— 1831). Translated from the German of Dr. Karl Mendelssohn, Son of the Composer, by M. E. Von Glehn. From the Private Diaries and Home Letters of Mendelssohn, with Poems and Letters of Goethe never before printed. Also with two New and Original Portiaits, Fac- similes, and Appendix of Twenty Letters hitherto unpublished. Crown 8vo. ^s. Second Edition, enlarged. «' , . , Every page is full of interest, not mo-ely to the mtisi- cian, but to the general reader. The book is a very charjning one, on a topic of deep and lasting interest." — Standard. 12 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Goldsmid. — TELEGRAPH AND TRAVEL. A Narrative of the Formation and Development of Telegraphic Communication between England and India, under the orders of Her Majesty's Government, with incidental Notices of the Countries ti'aversed by the Lines. By Colonel Sir Frederic Goldsmid, C.B., K.C.S.I., late Director of the Government Indo-European Telegraph. With numerous Illustrations and Maps. 8vo, 21s. " The ?nerit of the work is a total absence of exaggeration, which does not, hozvruer, preclude a vividness and vigour of style not always character^ istic of similar narratives." — STANDARD. Gordon.— LAST LETTERS FROM EGYPT, to which are added Letters from the Cape. By Lady Duff Gordon. With a Memoir by her Daughter, Mrs. Ross, and Portrait engraved by Jeens. Second Edition. Crown 8vo. 9^. " The intending tourist who wishes to acquaint himself zuith the country he is about to visit, stands embarrassed amidst the riches presented for his choice, and in the end probably rests contented with the sober nsefidness of Murray, He iv-ill not, hotvever, if he is well advised, grudge a place in his portmanteau to this book." — Times. Gray. — china. A History of the Laws, Manners, and Customs of the People. By the Venerable John Henry Gray. LL.D., Archdeacon of Hong Kong, formerly H. B. M. Consular Chaplain at Canton. Edited by W. Gow Gregor. With 150 Full-page Illustra- tions, being Facsimiles of Drawings by a Chinese Artist. 2 Vols, Demy 8vo. 32J. ^^ Its pages contain the most truthful and vivid picture of Chinese life wliich has ever been published." — Athen^UM. " 77^1? only elaborate and valuable book we have had for many years treating generally of the people of the Celestial Empire." — ACADEMY. Green. — Works by John Richard Green: — , HISTORY OF THE ENGLISH PEOPLE. Vol. I.— Early England — Foreign Kings — The Charter — The Parliament. With 8 Coloured Maps. 8vo. 16s. Vol. II. — The Monarchy, 1461 — 1540; the Restoration, 1540 — 1603. Svo. 16^. Vol.111. — Puritan England, 1603 — 1660; thCj Revolution, 1660 — 1688, With 4 Maps. 8vo. i6s. [Vol. IV. in the press. "Mr. Green has done a work which probably no one but himself could have done. He has read and assimilated the residts of all the labours of students during the last half centuty in the field of English history, and has given them a fresh meaning by his 07un independent stJidy. He has fused together by the force of sympathetic imagination all that he has so collected, and has ^iven us a vivid and forcible sketch of the march of English histoty. His hook, both in its aims and its accot?iplishments, rises far beyond any of a similar kind, and it will give the colouring to the popular view to English histoiy for some time to come." — Examiner. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 13 Green . — continued. A SHORT HISTORY OF THE ENGLISH PEOPLE. With Coloured Maps, Genealogical Tables, and Chronological Annals. \\ Crown 8vo. 8^. 6^/. Sixtyfir.it Thousand. " To say tliat Mr. Grwn's book is better than those which have pre- ceded it, 7vould be to convey a vay inadequate impression of its merits. It stands alone as the one general history of the coimtry, for the sake of which all others, if young and old are wise, 'will be speedily and surely set aside." STRAY STUDIES FROM ENGLAND AND ITALY. Crown 8vo. Sj. 6d. Containing : Lambeth and the Archbishops — The Florence of Dante — Venice and Rome — Early History of Oxford — The District Visitor — Capri — Hotels in the Clouds — Sketches in Sunshine, &'c. " One and all of the papers are eminently readable.'''' — Athen^UM. Guest. — LECTURES ON THE HISTORY OF ENGLAND. By M. J. Guest. With Maps. Crown Svo. ds. Hamerton. — Works by p. G. Hamerton:— THE INTELLECTUAL LIFE. With a Portrait of Leonardo da Vinci, etched by Leopold Flameng. Second Edition. Crown \os. i)d. Svo. " "[Ve have read the whole book with great pleasure, and we can re- commend it strongly to all who can appreciate grave reflections on a very important subject, excellently illustrated from the resources of a mind stored with much 7-eading and much keen obseivation of real life.'''' — Saturday Review. THOUGHTS ABOUT ART. New Edition, revised, with an Introduction. Crown Svo. Sj. 6d. ".(4 manual of sound and thorough criticism on artr — Standard. Hill. — THE RECORDER OF BIRMINGHAM. A Memoir of Matthew Davenport Hill, with Selections from his Correspondence. By his Daughters Rosamond and Florence Davenport-Hill. With Portrait engraved by C. H. Jeens. Svo. \hs. Hill.— WHAT WE SAW IN AUSTRALIA. By Rosamond and Florence Hill, Crown Svo. io.v. bd. '* May be recommended as an interesting and truthful picture cf the condition of those lands which are so distant and yet so jnuch like home." — Saturday Review, U MACMTLLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Hodgson. — MEMOIR OF REV. FRANCIS HODGSON, B. D., Scholar, I'oet, and Divine. By his Son, the Rev. James T. Hodgson, M.A. Con'.aining numerous letters from Lord Byron and others. With Portrait engraved by Jeens. Two Vols. Crown 8vo. i8f. " A book that has added so much of a healthy vaiure to our kno'ddrdge of Byron, and that contains so rich a store of delightful correspondence.''' — A'l'HENiEU.M. Hole. — A GENEALOGICAL STEMMA OF THE KING.S OF ENGLAND AND FRANCE. By the Rev. C. Hole, M.A., Trinity College, Cambridge. On Sheet, is. A BRIEF BIOGRAPHICAL DICTIONARY. Compiled and Arranged by the Rev. CHARLES Hole, M.A. Second Edition. iSmo. 4s. 6d. Hooker and Ball. — marocco and THE GREAT ATLAS: journal of a Tour in. By Sir Joseph D. Hooker, K.C.S.I., C.B., F.R.S., &c., and John Ball, F.R.S. With an Appendix, including a Sketch of the Geology of Marocco, by G. Maw, F.L.S., F.G.S. With Illustrations "and Map. 8vo. 21s. Hozier (H. M.) — Works by Captain Henry M. Hozier, late Assistant Military Secretary to Lord Napier of Magdala : — THE SEVEN WEEKS' WAR ; Its Antecedents and Incidents. AWc and Cheaper Edition. With New Preface, Maps, and Plans. Crown 8vo. 6j-. " All that Air. Hozier saw of the great events of the -war — and he saw a large share of them — he describes in clear and vivid language^" — Saturday Review. THE INVASIONS OF ENGLAND : a History of the Past, with Lessons for the Future. Two Vols. 8vo. 28^. The Pall Mall Gazette says : — "'As to all invasions executed, or deliberately projected but not caj-j-ied out, front the latiding of fulius Ccesar to the raising of the Boulogne cainp. Captain Hozier furnishes copious and most interesting particulars. " Hiibner. — a RAMBLE ROUND THE WORLD IN 1871. By M. Le Baron Hijbner, formerly Ambassador and Minister. Translated by Lady Herbert. New and Cheaper Edition. With numerous Illustrations. Crown 8vo. 6s. " It is difficult to do ample justice to this pleasant narrative of travel . ... it does not contain a single dull paragraph" — MORNiNG PoST. Hughes. — Works by Thomas Hughes, Q.C, Author of "Tom Brown's School Days." ALFRED THE GREAT. New Edition. Crown 8vo. dr. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 15 H U ghe S . — continued. MEMOIR OF A BROTHER. With Portrait of George Hughes, after Watts. Enj^raved by Jeens. Crown 8vo. 5^. Sixth Edition. " The hoy ivho can read this hook unthoiit dei'iving from it some addi- tional impulse loivards honouriihle, manly, and independent conduct, has no ^ood stuff in him." — Daily News. Hunt. — HISTORY OF ITALY. By the Rev. W. Hunt, M.A. Being the Fourth Volume of the Historical Course for Schools. Edited by Edward A. Freeman, U. C.L. iSmo. 3^-. " Mr. Hunt i^ives us a most compact but very readable little book, con- taining in small compass a very complete outline of a complicated and perplexing subject. It is a book which may be safely recommended to others besides schoolboys." — ^JOHN BuLL. Irving.— THE ANNALS OF OUR TIME. A Diurnal of Events, Social and Political, Home and Foreign, from the Accession of Queen Victoria to the Peace of Versailles. By Joseph Irving. fourth Edition. 8vo. half-bound, lbs. ANNALS OF OUR TIME. Supplement. From Feb. 28, 1871, to March 19, 1874. 8vo. ^. 6d. ANNALS OF OUR TLME. Second Supplement. From March, 1874, to the Occupation of Cypru-;. 8vo. 45. 6d. " IVe have bejore us a trusty and ready guide to the events of the past thirty years, available equally for the statesman, the politician, the public writer, and the general reader." — Times. James. — Works by Henry James, Jun. FRENCH POETS AND NOVELISTS. Crown 8vo. %s. 61. Contents: — Alfred de Musset ; Thcophile Cauli^r ; Bauddaire ; Honore de Balzac ; George San I ; The Two Amperes ; Turgenieff, &'c. Johnson's Lives of the Poets. — The Six Chief Lives — Milton, Dryden, Swift, Addison, Pope, Gray. With Macaulay's " Life of Johnson." Edited, with Preface, by Matthew Arnold. Crown Svo. 6s. Killen.— ECCLESIASTICAL HISTORY OF IRELAND, from the Earliest Date to the Present Time, liy W. D. Killen, D. D., President of Assembly's College, Belfast, and Professor of Eccle- siastical History. Two Vols. 8vo. 25^. " Those who have the leisure will do well to read these two volumes. They are full of intei-est, and are the result of great research. . . . We have no hesitation in recjmmending the work to all who wish to improve their acquaintance wi^h Irish history." — Spectator. 1 6 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Kingsley (Charles). — Works by the Rev. Charles Kingsi.ey, M.A., Rector of Eversley find Canon of Westminster. (For other Works by the same Author, see Theological and Belles Lettres Catalogues. ) ON THE ANCIEN REGIME as it existed on the Continent before the French Revolution. Three Lectures delivered at the Royal Institution. Crown 8vo. 6^. AT LAST : A CHRISTMAS in the WEST INDIES. With nearly Fifty Illustrations. Fifth Edition. Crown 8vo. 6^. Mr. Kin'^sley's dream of forty years was at last fulfilled, when he started on a Christmas expedition to the West Indies, for the purpose of beccmittg pasonally acquainted with the scenes which he. has so vividly described in " IVest-vard Ho !" These tzuo volumes are the journal of his voyage. Records of natural Jiistory, sketches of tropical landscape, chapters on education, vinos of society, all find their place. " We can only say that Mr. Ringsleys account of a ' Christmas in the West Indies ' is in every way zuorthy to be classed among his happiest productions." — Standard. THE ROMAN AND THE TEUTON. A Series of Lectures delivered before the University of Cambrida:e. New and Cheaper Edition, with Preface by Professor Ma.x Muller. Crown 8vo. 6j. PLAYS AND PURITANS, and other Historical Essays. With Portrait of Sir Walter Raleigh. New Edition. Crown 8vo. ds. In addition to the Essay mentioned in the title, this volume contains other two — one on "Sir Walter Raleigh and his Time," and one on Froude^s " History of England. " Kingsley (Henry). — TALES OF OLD TRAVEL. Re- narrated by Henry Kingsley, F.R.G.S. With Eight Illus- trations by HuARD. Fifth Edition. Crown 8vo. 5^. " We kno'cu no better book for those luho want knowledge or seek to refresh it. As for the ' sensational,^ most novels are tat)ie compared with these narratives." — Athen^UM. Lang. — CYPRUS : Its Histoiy, its Present Resources and Future Prospects. By R. Hamilton Lang, late H.M. Consul for the Island of Cyprus. With Two Illustrations and Four Maps. 8vo. 14^. " The fair and impartial account of her past and present to be found in these pages has an tindoublcd claim on the attention of all intelligent readers.''' — Morning Post. LaoCOOn. — Translated from the Text of Lessing, with Preface and Notes by the Right Hon. SiR Robert J. Phillimore, D.C.L. With Photographs. 8vo. 12s. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 17 Leonardo da Vinci and his Works. — Consisting of a Life of Leonardo Da Vinci, by Mrs. Charles \V. Heaton, Author of "Albrecht Diirer of Niirnberg," &c., an Essay on his Scientific and Literary Works by Charles Christopher Black, M. A., and an account of his more important Paintings and Drawings. Illustrated with Permanent Photographs. Royal 8vo, cloth, extra gilt. 31^. 6d. " A beautiful volume, both without and within. Messrs. Macmillan are conspicuous among publishers for the choice binding and printing of their books, and this is got up in their best style. . . . JVo English publication that we know of has so thoroughly and attractively collected together all that is known of Leonardo." — Times. Liechtenstein,— HOLLAND HOUSE. By Princess Marie Liechtenstein. With Five Steel Engravings by C. H. Jeens, after Paintings by Watts and other celebrated Artists, and numerous Illustrations drawn by Professor P. H. Delamotte, and engraved on Wood by J. D. Cooper, W. Palmer, and Jewitt & Co. Third and Cheaper Edition. Medium 8vo. cloth elegant. 1 6 J. Also, an Edition containing, in addition to the above, about 40 Illustrations by the Woodbury-type process, and India Proofs of the Steel Engravings. Two vols, medium 4to. half morocco elegant. 4/. 4s'. " When every strictly just exception shall have been taken, she may be conscientiously congratulated by the most scrupulous critic on the produ^- tion of a useful, agj-eeable, beautifully -illustrated, and attj-cutive book." — Times. ^^ It would take up more room than we can spare to enumerate all the interesting suggestions and notes which are to be found in these volumes The woodcuts are admirable, and some of the autographs are very interesting." — Pall Mall Gazette. Lloyd. — THE AGE OF PERICLES. A History of the Arts and Politics of Greece from the Persian to the Peloponnesian War. By W. Wat kiss Lloyd. Two Vols. 8vo. 21s. " No such account of Greek art of the best period has yet been brought together in an English work Mr. Lloyd has produced a book op unusu^ excellence and interest." — Pall Mall Gazette. Macarthur. — HISTORY OF SCOTLAND, By Margaret Macarthur. Being the Third Volume of the Historical Course for Schools, Edited by Edward A. Freeman, D.C.L. Second Edition. i8mo. 2s. '^ It is an excellent summary, unimpeachable as io facts, and putting them in the clearest and most impartial light attainable." — GUARDIAN. " No previous History oj Scotland of the same bulk is anything like so trustworthy, or deserves to be so extensively used as a text-book." — Globe. B 1 8 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Macmillan (Rev. Hugh). — For other Works by same Author, see Theological and Scientific Catalogues. HOLIDAYS ON HIGH LANDS ; or, Rambles and Incidents in search of Alpine Plants. Second Edition, revised and enlarged. Globe 8vo. cloth. 6^. "Botanical knowledge is blended with a love of nature, a pious en- thusiasm, a7td a rich felicity of diction not to be met with iii any works of kindred character, if we except those of Hugh Miller." — TELEGRAPH. *^ Mr. Macmillan's glowing pictures of Scandinavian scenery" — - Saturday Review. Macready. — macready'S reminiscences and se- lections FROM HIS diaries AND LETTERS. Edited by Sir F. Pollock, Bart., one of his Executors. With Four Portraits engraved by Jeens. New and Cheaper Edition. Crown 8vo. 7^'. 6(7'. " jfls a careful and for the most part just estimate of the stage during a very brilliant pet tod, the attraction of these volumes can scarcely be surpassed. .... Readers who have no s-pecial interest in theatrical matters, but enjoy miscellaneous gossip, will be allured f-om page to page, attracted by familiar names and by observations upon popular actors and authors. " — Spectator. Mahaffy. — Works by the Rev. J. P. Mahaffy, M.A., Fellow of Trinity College, Dublin : — SOCIAL LIFE IN GREECE FROM HOMER TO MENAN- DER. Third Edition, revised and enlarged, with a new chapter on Greek Art. Crown 8vo. gr. " It should be in the hands of all who desire thoroughly to understand and to enjoy Gt-eek literature, and to get an intelligent idea of the old Greek life, political, social, a )td religious." — GUARDIAN. RAMBLES AND STUDIES IN GREECE. With Illustrations. Crown Svo. \os. 6d. New and enlarged Edition, with Map and Illustrations "yi singularly instructive and agreeable volutne.^^ — AtheN/^UM. " Maori." — SPORT AND WORK ON THE NEPAUL FRON- TIER ; or, Twelve Years' Sporting Reminiscences of an Indigo Planter. By "Maori." With Illustrations. Svo. 14^. Margary. — THE JOURNEY OF AUGUSTUS RAYMOND MARGARY FROM SHANGHAE TO BHAMO AND BACK TO MANWYNE. From his Journals and Letters, with a brief Biographical Preface, a concluding chapter by Sir Rutherford Alcock, K.C.B., and a Steel Portrait engraved by Jeens, and Map. Svo. \os. 6d. " There is a manliness, a cheerful spirit, an inherent vigour which was never overcome by sickness or debility, a tact which conquered the HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 19 prejudices of a strange and suspicious population, a quiet self-reliance, always combined ivith deep religious feeling, unalloyed by either priggish- ness, cant, or superstition, that ought to commend this volume to readers sitting quietly at home who feel any pride in the high estimation accorded to men of their race at Yarkand or at Khiva, in the heart of Africa, or on the shores of Lake Seri-kul." — Saturday Review. Markham.— NORTHWARD HO ! By Captain Albert H. Markham, R.N., Author of "The Great Frozen Sea," &c. Including a Narrative of Captain Phipp^'s Expedition, by a Mid- shipman. With Illustrations. Crown 8vo. los. 6d. Martin.— THE HISTORY OF LLOYD'S, AND OF MARINE INSURANCE IN GREAT BRITAIN. With an Appendix containing Statistics relating to Marine Insurance. By Frederick Martin, Author of "The Statesman's Year Book." 8vo. 14J. Martineau.— BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, 1852— 1875. By Harriet Martineau. With Additional Sketches, and Auto- biographical Sketch. Fifth Edition. Crown 8vo. 6s. " Miss Martineau' s large literary powers and her fine intellectual training make these little sketches more instructive, and constitute them more genuinely 7vorks of art, than many more ambitious and diffuse biographies."— YoKyiHGUTWi Review. MasSOn (David).— For other Works by same Author, see Philo- sophical and Belles Lettres Catalogues. CHATTERTON : A Story of the Year 1770. By David Masson, LL.D., Professor of Rhetoric and English Literature in the Uni- vei"sity of Edinburgh. Crown 8vo. 5^. THE THREE DEVILS : Luther's, Goethe's, and Milton's ; and other Essays. Crown 8vo. 5^. WORDSWORTH, SHELLEY, AND KEATS; and other Essays. Crown 8vo. 5^. Mathews.— LIFE OF CHARLES J. MATHEWS. Chiefly Autobiographical. With Selections from his Correspondence and Speeches. Edited by Charles Dickens. " The book is a charming one from first to last, and Mr. Dickens deserves a full measure of credit for the care and discrimination he has exercised in the business of editing." — GLOBE. Maurice. — the friendship of books ; and OTHER LECTURES. By the Rev. Y. D. Maurice. lidited with Pre- face, by Thomas Hughes, Q.C. Ciowti 8vo. 105. td. " The high, pure, sympathetic, and truly charitable nature of Mr. Maurice is delightfully visible throughout these lectures, which are ex- cellently adapted to spread a love of literature amongst the people." — Daily News. 20 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Mayor (J. E. B.)_WORKS edited by John E. B. Mayor, M.A., Kennedy Professor of Latin at Cambridge : — CAMBRIDGE IN THE SEVENTEENTH CENTURY. Part II. Autobiography of Matthew Robinson. Fcap. 8vo. 5^. ()d. LIFE OF BISHOP BEDELL. By his Son. Fcap. 8vo. 3^. bd. Melbourne. — MEMOIRS OF THE RT. HON. WILLIAM, SECOND VISCOUNT MELBOURNE. By W. M. Torrens, M. P. With Portrait after Sir. T. Lawrence. Second Edition. 2 Vols. 8vo, 'i'^s. " As might be expected, he has produced a book which will command and reivard attention. It contains a great deal of valuable matter and a great deal of animated, elegant writing." — Quarterly Review. Mendelssohn.— LETTERS AND RECOLLECTIONS. By Ferdinand Hiller. Translated by M. E. Von Glehn. With Portrait from a Drawing by Karl Muller, never before pub- lished. Second Edition. Crown 8vo. 7^. dd. " This is a very interesting addition to our knowledge of the great German composer. It reveals him to us under a new light, as the warm' hearted comrade, the musician whose soul was in his work, and the home' loving, domestic man." — Standard. Merewether.— BY SEA AND BY LAND. Being a Trip through Egypt, India, Ceylon, Australia, New Zealand, and America — all Round the World. By Henry Alworth Mere- wether, one of Her Majesty's Counsel. Crown 8vo. 8j. 6d. Michael Angelo Buonarotti ; Sculptor, Painter, Architect. The Story of his Life and Labours. By C. C. Black, M.A. Illustrated by 20 Permanent Photographs. Royal 8vo. cloth elegant, 31J. 61a?'. ' ' The story of Michael Angelo s life remains interesting whatever be the manner of telling it, and supported as it is by this beautiful series of photo • {graphs, the volume must take rank among the most splendid of Christmas books, fitted to sa-ve and to outlive the season" — Pall Mall Gazette. Michelet — A SUMMARY OF MODERN HISTORY. Trans- lated from the French of M. Michelet, and continued to the present time by M. C. M. Simpson. Globe 8vo. 4?. tcC. Milton. — LIFE OF JOHN MILTON. Narrated in connection with the Political, Ecclesiastical, and Literary History of his Time. By David Masson, M.A., LL.D., Professor of Rhetoric and English Literature in the University of Edinburgh. With Portraits. Vol. L i8j. Vol. II., 1638— 1643. 8vo. 16^. Vol. III. 1643 — 1649. 8vo. \%s. Vols. IV. and V. 1649— 1660. 32J. Vol. VI. in the press. This 7uork is not only a Biography, but also a continuous Political, Eccle- siastical, and Literary History of England through Milton's whole time. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. Mitford (A. B.)— tales OF OLD japan. By A. B. MiTFORD, Second Secretary to the British Legation in Japan. With upwards of 30 Illustrations, drawn and cut on Wood by Japanese Artists. New and Cheaper Edition. Crown 8vo. 6s. " These very original volumes will always be inieresling as memorials of a most exceptional society, vjhile regarded simply as tales, they are sparkling, sensational, and dramatic, a7td the origittality of their idea and the quaintness of their language give them a most captivating piquancy. The illustrations are extremely interesting, and for the curious in such matters have a special and particular value." — Pall Mall Gazette. Monteiro.— ANGOLA AND THE RIVER CONGO. By Joachim Monteiro. With numerous Illustrations from Sketches taken on the spot, and a Map. Two Vols, crown 8vo, 2is. " Gives the first detailed account of a part of tropical Africa 'which is httle known to Englishmen The ranarks on the geography and zoology of the country and the manners and customs of the various races inhabiting it, are extremely curious and interesting." — Saturday Re- view. ' ' Eull of valuable information and much picturesque description. " Pall Mall Gazette. Morison.— THE LIFE AND TIMES OF SAINT BERNARD, Abbot of Clairvaux. By James Cotter Morison, M.A. New Edition. Crown 8vo. 6^. Moseley. — NOTES BY A NATURALIST ON THE CHAL- LENGER: being an Account of various Observations made during the Voyage of H.M.S. Challenger, Round the World, in 1872-76. By H. N. Moseley, F.R.S., Member of the Scientific Staff of the Challenger. 8vo, with Maps, Coloured Plates, and Woodcuts. 2U. Murray. — ROUND ABOUT FRANCE. By E. C. Grenville Murray. Crown 8vo. ']s. 6d. " These short essays area perfect mine of information as to the present condition and future prospects of political parties in France. . . . It is at once extremely interesting and exceptionally instructive on a subject on which few English people are well informed." — Scotsman. Napier. — MACVEY NAPIER'S SELECTED CORRES- PONDENCE. Edited by his Son, Macvey Napier. 8vo, 14J. " This exceedingly interesting work. . . . Mr. Napier has certainly been 7i'ell advised in admitting the general public to the knowledge of a volume which is hardly to be surpassed in point of interest among recent publica- tions." — Examiner. 22 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Napoleon.— THE HISTORY OF NAPOLEON I. By P. Lanfrey. a Translation with the sanction of the Author. Vols. I. II. and III. 8vo. price I2s. each. \Vol. IV. in the press. The Fall Mall Gazette says it is "one of the most striking pieces of historical composition of which France has to boast," and the Saturday Review calls it ^^ an excellent translation of a work oti every ground deserving to be trattslated. It is unqitestionably and immeasurably the best that has been produced. It is in/act the only work to which we can turn for ayt accurate and trustworthy narrative of that extraordinary career. . . . The book is the best and indeed the only trustworthy history of Napoleon which has been written." Nichol. — TABLES OF EUROPEAN LITERATURE AND HISTORY, a.d. 200—1876. By J. NiCHOL, LL.D., Professor of English Language and Literature, Glasgow. 4to. 6s. 6d. TABLES OF ANCIENT LITERATURE AND HISTORY, B.C. 1500— A.D. 200. By the same Author. 4to. 45-. 6a'. Oliphant (Mrs.). — THE MAKERS OF FLORENCE : Dante Giotto, Savonarola, and their City. By Mrs. Oliphant. With numerous Illustrations from drawings by Professor Delamotte, and portrait of Savonarola, engraved by Jeens. Second Edition. Medium 8vo. Cloth extra. 21^. '• Mrs. Oliphant has made a beautiful addition to the mass of literature already piled round the records of the Tuscan capital." — Times. " We are gi-ateful to Mrs. Oliphant for her eloquent and beautiful sketches of Dante, Fra Angelico, arid Savonarola. They are picturesque, full of life, and rich in detail, and they are charmingly illustrated by the art of the engraver." — SPECTATOR. Oliphant.— THE DUKE AND THE SCHOLAR; and other Essays. By T. L. Kington Oliphant. 8vo. ^s. 6d. '* This volume contains one of the most beautiful biop-aphical essays we have seen since Alacaulay^s days." — Standard. Otte. — SCANDINAVIAN HISTORY. By E. C. Otte, With Maps. Extra fcap. 8vo. 6.i-. " We have peculiar pleasure in recommending this intelligent risume of Northertt history as a book essential to every Fnglish?>ian who interests himself in Scandinavia."— Spectator. Owens College Essays and Addresses. — By Pro- fessors and Lecturers of Owens College, Manchester. Published in Commemoration of the Opening of the New College Buildings, October 7th, 1873. 8vo. 14s. Palgrave (R. F. D.)— the HOUSE OF COMMONS ; Ilhistrations of its Plistory and Practice. By Reginald F. D. Pai,(;rave, Clerk Assistant of the House of Commons. New and Revised Edition. Crown 8vu. 2s. 6d. Mrs TORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 23 Palgrave (Sir F.) — history OF Normandy and OF ENGLAND. By Sir Francis Palgrave, Deputy Keeper of Her Majesty's Public Records. Completing the History to the Death of William Rufus. 4 Vols. Svo. 4/. 45-. Palgrave (W. G.) — A NARRATIVE OF A YEAR'S JOURNEY THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARABIA, 1862-3. By William Gifford Palgrave, late of the Eighth Regiment Bombay N. I. Sixth Edition. With Maps, Plans, and Portrait of Author, engraved on steel by Jeens. Crown Svo. 6s, *^ He kas not only written one of the best books on the Arabs and one of the best books on Arabia, but he has done so in a manner that viiist command the respect no less than the admiration of his fellow-country men." — Fortnightly Review. ESSAYS ON EASTERN QUEStlONS. By W. Gifford Palgrave. Svo. los. 6d. " These essays are full of anecdote and interest. The book is decidedly a valuable addition to the stock of literature on which meti must base their opinion of the difficult social and political problems sug- gested by the designs of Russia, the capacity of Mahometans Jor sovereignty, and the ' good government and retention of Jndia." — Saturday Review. DUTCH GUIANA. With Maps and Plans. Svo. 9^. "His pages are nearly exhaustive as far as facts and statistics go, while they are lightened by graphic social sketches as well as sparkling descriptions of scenery.'" — Saturday Review. Patteson, — life and letters of john coleridge PATTESON, D.D., Missionary Bishop of the Melanesian Islands. By Charlotte M. Yonge, Author of " The Heir of Redclyffe." With Portraits after RICHMOND and from Photograph, engraved by Jeens. With Map. Fifth Edition. Two Vols. Crown Svo, \2.s. ^^ Miss Yotige's work is in one respect a model biography. It is made up almost entirely of Patteson' s own letters. Aware that he had left his home once and for all, his correspondence took the for in of a diajy, and as we read on we come to know the mati, and to love him almost as if we had seen him." — AtheN/EUM. "Such a life, with its grand lessons of unselfishness, is a blessing and an honour to the age in which it is lived ; the biography cannot be studied without pleasure and profit, and indeed we should think Utile of the man who did not rise from the study of it better and wiser. Neither the Church nor the nation which produces such sons need ever despair of its future." — Saturday Review. Pauli. — PICTURES OF OLD ENGLAND. By Dr. Reinhold Pauli. Translated, with the approval of the Author, by E. C. Ottf.. Cheaper Edition. Crown Svo. 6^. 24 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS TN Payne. — a history of EUROPEAN COLONIES. By E. J. Payne, M.A. With Maps. i8mo. 45-. (id. The Times says : — " We have seldom met with a historian capable oj forming a more comprehensive, far-seeing, and unprejudiced estimate of events and peoples, and we can commend this little work as one certain to prove of the highest interest to all thoughtful readers^ Persia. — eastern Persia. An Account of the Journeys of the Persian Boundary Commission, 1870-1-2. — Vol. I. The Geo- graphy, with Narratives by Majors St. John, Lovett, and Euan Smith, and an Introduction by Major-General Sir Frederic GOLDSMID, C.B., K.C.S.I., British Commissioner and Arbitrator. With Maps and Illustrations. — Vol. II. The Zoology and Geology, By W. T. Blanford, A.R.S.M., F.R.S. With Coloured lUus- trations. Two Vols. 8vo. 42J. " The volumes largely increase our store of information about countries with which Englishmen ought to be familiar They throw into the shade all that hitherto has appeared in our tongue respecting the local features of Persia, its scenery, its resources, even its social condition. Thev contain also abundant evidence of English endurance, daring, and spirit." — Times. Prichard. — the administration of INDIA. From 1859 to 1868. The First Ten Years of Administration under the Crown. By I. T. Prichard, Barrister-at-Law. Two Vols. Demy Svo. With Map. 2\s. Raphael.— RAPHAEL OF URBINO AND HIS FATHER GIOVANNI SANTI. By J. D. Passavant, formerly Director of the Museum at Frankfort. With Twenty Permanent Photo- graphs.- Royal Svo. Handsomely bound. 31^. 6^^. The Saturday Review says of them, " We have seen not a fezo elegant specimens of Mr. Woodbury's new process, but we have seen none that equal these. " Reynolds. — SIR JOSHUA REYNOLDS AS A PORTRAIT PAINTER. AN ESSAY. By J. Churton Collins, B.A. Balliol College, O.xford. Illustrated by a Series of Portraits of distinguished Beauties of the Court of George III. ; reproduced in Autotype from Proof Impressions of the celebrated Engravings, by Valentine Green, Thomas Watson, F. R. Smith, E. Fisher, and others. Folio half-morocco. £<^ '^s. Rogers (James E. Thorold). — HISTORICAL GLEAN- INGS : A Series of Sketches. Montague, Walpole, Adam Smith, Cobbett. By Prof. Rogers. Crown 8vo. 4?. (>d. Second Series, Wiklif, Laud, Wilkes, and Home Tooke. Crown Svo. bs. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 25 Routledge. — chapters in the history of popular PROGRESS IN ENGLAND, chiefly in Relation to the Freedom of the Press and Trial by Jury, 1660 — 1820. With application to later years. By J. Routledge. 8vo. i6j. " The volume abounds in facts and information, almost ahvays useful and often curivus." — Times. Rumford. — COUNT RUMFORD'S complete WORKS, with Memoir, and Notices of his Daughter. By George Ellis. Five Vols. 8vo. 4/. 14^-. 6d. Seeley (Professor). — LECTURES AND ESSAYS. By J. R. Seeley, M.A. Professor of Modem History in the University of Cambridge. 8vo. los. 6d. Contents : — Roman Iinperialism : i. The Great Roman Revolu- tion; 2. The Proximate Cause* of the Fall of the Roman Empire ; The Later Empire. — Aliltott's Political Opinions — Milton's Poetry — Elementary Principles in Art — Liberal Education in Universities — English in Schools — The Church as a Teacher of Morality — The Teaching of Politics : an Inaugural Lecture delivered at Cambridge. Shelburne.— LIFE OF William, earl of shelburne, AFTERWARDS FIRST MARQUIS OF LANSDOWNE. With Extracts from his Papers and Correspondence. By Lord Edmond Fitzmaurice. In Three Vols. 8vo. VoL I. 1737 — 1766, I2J-. ; Vol.dl. 1766— 1776, \zs. ; Vol. III. 1776 — 1805. xds. "Lord Edtnond Fitzmaurice has succeeded in placing before us a wealth of new matter, -which, while casting valuable and much-needed light on several obscure passages in the political history of a hundred years ago, has enabled us for the first time to form a clear and consistent idea of his ancestor.'' — Spectator. Sime. — history of Germany, By james Sime, m.a. i8mo. 3J'. Being Vol. V. of the Historical Course for Schools Edited by Edward A. Freeman, D.C.L. " This is a remarkably clear and impressive History of Germany. Its great rodents are wisely kept as central figures , and the smaller events are carefully kept not only subordinate and subservient, but most skilfully woven into the texture of the historical tapestry presented to the eye." — Standard. Squier. — PERU : INCIDENTS OF TRAVEL AND EX- PLORATION in the land of the INCAS. By E. G. Squier, M.A., F.S.A., late U.S. Commissioner to Peru. With 300 Illustrations. . Second Edition. 8vo. 2ls. The Times says : — " No more solid and trustzvorthy contribution haa been made to an accu7-ate knaiuledge of what are among the most wonderful ruins in the world. The work is really what its title implies. While of the greatest importance as a contribution to Pei uvian archceology, it is also a thoroughly entertaining and instructive narrative of travel. Mot the least ifnportant feature must beconsidered the numei'oui well executed illustrations ." 26 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Strangford. — EGYPTIAN S?IRINES AND SYRIAN SEPUL- CHRES, including a Visit to Palmyra. By Emily A. Beaufort (Viscountess Strangford), Author of " The Eastern Shores of the Adriatic." New Edition. Crown 8vo. "Js. 6d. Tait.— AN ANALYSIS OF ENGLISH HISTORY, based upon Green's "Short History of the English People." By C. W. A. Tait, M.A., Assistant Master, Clifton College. Crown 8vo. 35. 6d. Thomas.— TFIE LIFE OF JOHN THOMAS, Surgeon of the "Earl of Oxford" East Indiaman, and First Baptist Missionary to Bengal. By C. B. Lewis, Baptist Missionary. 8vo. los. 6d. Thompson. — HISTORY OF ENGLAND. By Edith Thomp- SON. Being Vol. II. of the Historical Course for Schools, Edited by Edward A. Freeman, D. C.L. New Edition, revised and enlarged, with Maps. iSmo. 2s. 6d. ^^ Freedom from prejudice, simplicity of style, and accuracy of state- ment, are the characttristics of this volume. It is a tritstzvortky text-book, and likely to be generally serviceable in schools." — Pall Mall Gazette. *' In its great accuracy and correctness of detail it stands far ahead of the general nin of school 7nanuals. Its arrangement, too, is clear, and its style simple and straightjorward." — Saturday Review. Todhunter. — THE CONFLICT OF STUDIES ; AND OTPIER ESSAYS ON SUBJECTS CONNECTED WITH EDUCATION. By Isaac Todhunter, M.A., F.R.S., late Fellow and Principal Mathematical Lecturer 01 St. John's College, Cambridge. 8vo. loj. 6d. Contents : — 1. The Conflict of Studies. II. Competitive Exa- minations. III. Private Study of Mathematics. IV. Academical Reform. V. Elementary Geometry. VI, The Mathematical Tripos. Trench (Archbishop). — For other Works by the same Author, see Theological and Belles Lettres Catalogues, and page 30 of this Catalogue. GUSTAVUS ADOLPHUS IN GERMANY, and other Lectures on the Thirty Years' War. Second Edition, revised and enlarged. Fcap. Svo. 4-;. PLUTARCH, HIS LIFE, HIS LIVES, AND PIIS MORALS. Five Lectures. Second Edition, enlarged. Fcap. Svo. 3^^. ()d. LECTURES ON MEDIEVAL CHURCH HISTORY. Being the substance of Lectures delivered in Queen's College, London. Second Edition, revised. Svo. 12s. Trench (Maria). — THE LIFE OF ST. TERESA. By Marta Trench. With Portrait engraved by Jeens. Crown Svo, cloth extra. 8j. 6d. "A book of rare interest." — John Bull. HISTORY, BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC. 27 Trench (Mrs. R.)— REMAINS OF THE LATE MRS. RICHARD TRENCH. Being Selections from her Journals, Letters, and other Papers. Edited by Archbishop Trench. New and Cheaper Issue, with Portrait. 8vo. 6^. TroUope. — a history of the commonwealth of FLORENCE FROM THE EARLIEST INDEPENDPINCE OF THE COMMUNE TO THE FALL OF THE REPUBLIC IN 1831. By T. Adolphus Trollope. 4 Vols. Svo. Half morocco. 2is. Uppingham by the Sea, — a NARRATIVE OF THE YEAR AT BORTH. ByJ. H. S. Crown Svo. z^. 6d. Victor Emmanuel II., First King of Italy.— ms LIFE. By G. S. Godkin. 2 vols., crown Svo. i6s. "An extremely clear and interesting history of one of the most ijnportant changes of later /iw^j."— Examiner. Wallace.— THE MALAY ARCHIPELAGO: the Land of the Orang Utan and the Bird of Paradise. By Alfred Russel Wallace. A Narrative of Travel with Studies of Man and Nature. With Maps and numerous Illustrations. Sixth Edition. Crown Svo. 7j. dd. * ' The result is a vivid picture of tropical life, -which may be read with unflagging interest, atid a sufficient account of his scientific conclusions to stimulate our appetite without wearying us by detail. In short, we mo- safely say that we have never read a more agreeable book of its k<' Saturday Review. Ward.— A HISTORY OF ENGLISH DRAMATIC 1.ITERA. TURE TO THE DEATH OF QUEEN ANNE. By A. W. Ward, M.A., Professor of History and English Literature in f^wens College, Manchester. Two Vols. Svo. 32^. " As ftdl of interest as of information. To students of dramatic literature invaluable, and may be equally recomtnended to readers for mere pastime.^' — Pall Mall Gazette. Ward (J.)— EXPERIENCES OF A DIPLOMATIST. Being recollections of Germany founded on Diaries kept during the years 1840—1870. By JoHiN Ward, C.B., late H.M. Minister- Resident to the Hanse Towns. Svo. loj-. 6d. Waterton (C.)— wanderings in SOUTH AMERICA, THE NORTH-WEST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND THE ANTILLES IN 1812, 1816, 1820, and 1824. With Original Instructions for the perfect Preservation of Birds, etc., for Cabinets of Natural History. By Charles Waterton. New Edition, edited with Biographical Introduction and Explana- tory Index by the Kev. J. G. Wood, M.A. With roo Illustrations. Svo. Cloth elegant. 21s. 28 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF WORKS IN Wedgwood.— JOHN WESLEY AND THE EVANGELICAL REACTION of the Eighteenth Century, By JuLiA Wedgwood. Crown 8vo. 8j. (>d. Whewell.— WILLIAM WHEWELL, D.D., late Master of Trinity College, Cambridge. An Account of his Writings, with Selections from his Literary and Scientific Correspondence. By I. ToDHUNTER, M.A., F.R.S. Two Vols. Svo. 25J. White. — THE NATURAL HISTORY AND ANTIQUITIES OF SELBORNE. By (iiLBERT White. Edited, with Memoir and Notes, by Frank Buckland, A Chapter on Antiquities by Lord Selborne, Map, &c., and numerous Illustrations by P. H. Delamotte. Royal Svo. Cloth, extra gilt. Cheaper Issue. 2\s. Also a Large Paper Edition, containing, in addition to the above, upwards of Thirty Woodbuiytype Illustrations from Drawings by Prof. Delamotte. Two Vols. 4to. Half morocco, elegant. 4/. ifS. "Mr. Delamotti s charming illustrations are a worthy decoration of so dainty a book. They bring Selborne before us, and really help us to understand why Whites love for his native place ncver grew cold" — Times. Wilson. — A MEMOIR OF GEORGE WILSON, M. D., F. R. S.E., Regius Professor of Technology in the University of Edinburgh. By his Sister. New Edition. Crown Svo. bs. Wilson (Daniel, LL.D.) — Works by Daniel Wilson, LL.D., Professor of History and English Literature in University College, Toronto : — PREHISTORIC ANNALS OF SCOTLAND. New Edition, with numerous Illustrations. Two Vols, demy Svo. 36^. " One of the most interesting, leat-ned, and elegant works we have seen for a long time." — Westminster Review^. PREHISTORIC MAN : Researches into the Origin of Civilization in the Old and New World. New Edition, revised and enlarged throughout, with numerous Illustrations and two Coloured Plates. Two Vols. Svo. 36^-. "/i valuable work pleasantly written and well worthy of atttntion both by students and general readers." — Academy. CHATTERTON : A Biographical Study. By Daniel Wilson, LL. D., Professor of History and English Literature in University College, Toronto. Crown Svo. 6j. (id. HISTORY., BIOGRAPHY, TRAVELS, ETC, 29 Wyatt (Sir M. Digby).— fine ART : a Sketch of its History, Theory, Practice, and application to Industry. A Course of Lectures delivered before the University of Cambridge. By Sir M. Digby Wyatt, M.A. Slade Professor of Fine Art. Cheaper Issue. 8vo. 5J. " ^« excellent handbook for the student of art. ^^ — GRAPHIC. " The book abounds in valuable matter, and will therefore be read with pleasure and profit by lovers of art." — Daily News. Yonge (Charlotte M.)— Works by Charlotte M. Yonge, Author of "The Heir of Redclyffe," &c., &c. :— A PARALLEL HISTORY OF FRANCE AND ENGLAND : consisting of Outlines and Dates. Oblong 4to. 31. ()d. CAMEOS FROM ENGLISH HISTORY. From Rollo to Edward II. Extra fcap. 8vo. Third Edition. 5^. Second Series, THE WARS IN FRANCE. Extra fcap. 8vo. Third Edition. 5^. Third Series, THE WARS OF THE ROSES. Extra fcap. Svo. 5^. '^^ Instead of dry details," says the NONCONFORMIST, " we have living pictures, faithful, vivid, and striking." Fourth Series. \Nearly ready. HISTORY OF FRANCE. Maps* i8mo. 3^. dd. \_Historical Course for Schools, 30 MACMTLLAN'S CATALOGUE OF POLITICS, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ECONOMY, LAW, AND KINDRED SUBJECTS. Anglo-Saxon Law. — ESSAYS IN. Contents: Law Courts — Land and Family Laws and Legal Procedure generally. With Select cases. Medium 8vo. iZs. Arnold. — THE ROMAN SYSTEM OF PROVINCIAL ADMIN- ISTRATION TO THE ACCESSION OF CONSTANTINE THE GREAT. Being the Arnold Prize Essay for 1879. Ey W. T, Arnold, B. A. Crown 8vo. 6s. Ball. — THE STUDENT'S GUIDE TO THE BAR. By Walter W. Ball, M.A., of the Inner Temple, Barrister-at- Law. Crown 8vo. zs. 6d. " The student will here find a clear statement of the several steps by which the degree of barrister is obtained, and also usejul advice about the advantages of a prolonged course of ' reading in Chambers. ' " — Academy. Bernard.— FOUR LECTURES ON SUBJECTS CONNECTED WITH DIPLOMACY. By Montague Bernard, M.A., Chichele Professor of International Law and Diplomacy, Oxford. 8vo. 9^. " Singularly interesting lectures, so able, clear, and attractive." — Spec- tator. Bright (John, M.P.) — Works by the Right Hon. John Bright, M.P. SPEECHES ON QUESTIONS OF PUBLIC POLICY. Edited by Professor Thorold Rogers. Author's Popular Edition. Globe 8vo. 3^. td. '^ Mr. Bri^hi's speeches will ahvays deserve to be studied, as an apprenticeship to popular and parliamentarv oratory ; they will foi-nt materials for the history of our time, and many brilliant passages, verhaps some entire speeches, will really become a part of the living litera- ture of England." — DAILY News. LIBRARY EDITION. Two Vols. 8vo. With Portrait. 2$^. PUBLIC ADDRESSES. Edited by J. Thorold Rogers. Svo. 14J. Bucknill, — HABITUAL DRUNKENNESS AND INSANE DRUNKARDS. By J. C. Bucknill, M.D., F.R.S., late Lord Chancellor's Visitor of Lunatics, Crown Svo. 2s. 6d, WORKS IN POLITICS, ETC. Cairnes. — Works by J. E. Cairnes, M.A., Emeritus Professor of Political Economy in University College, London. ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ECONOMY, THEORETICAL and APPLIED. By J. E. Cairnes, M.A., Professor of Political Economy in University College, London. 8vo. loj'. 6d. POLITICAL ESSAYS. 8vo. los. 6d. SOME LEADING PRINCIPLES OF POLITICAL ECONOMY NEWLY EXPOUNDED. 8vo. 14^-. Contents : — Part I. Value. Part II. Labour and Capital. Part III. International Trade. "A work which is perhaps the most valuable contribution to the science made since the publication, a quarter of a century since, of Mr. Micls ' Principles of Political Economy.^ " — Daily News. THE CHARACTER AND LOGICAL METHOD OF POLL TICAL ECONOMY. New Edition, enlarged. 8vo. 7s. 6d " These lectures are admirably fitted to correct the slipshod generaliza- tions ivhich pass current as the science of Political Economy." — Times. Clarke.— EARLY ROMAN LAW. THE REGAL PERIOD. By E. C. Clarke, M.A., of Lincoln's Inn, Barrister-at-Law, Lecturer in Law and Regius Professor of Civil Law at Cam- bridge. Crown 8vo. 5^. Cobden (Richard). — SPEECHES ON QUESTIONS OF PUBLIC POLICY. By Richard Cobden. Edited by the Right Hon. John Bright, M.P., and J. E. Thorold Rogers. Popular Edition. 8vo. 3^-. 6d. Fawcett. — Works by Henry Fawcett, M.A., M.P., Fellow of Trinity Hall, and Professor of Political Economy in the University of Cambridge : — THE ECONOMIC POSITION OF THE BRITISH LABOURER. Extra fcap. 8vo. 5-f. MANUAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY. Fifth Edition, with New Chapters on the Depreciation of Silver, etc. Crown 8vo. 12S. The Daily News says: ^^ It forms one of the best introductions to the principles of the science, and to its practical applications in the problems of modern, and especially of English, government and society." PAUPERISM : ITS CAUSES AND REMEDIES. Crown 8vo. 5^. td. The AtheN/^um calls the work "a repertory of interesting and well digested information ." SPEECHES ON SOME CURRENT POLITICAL QUES- TIONS. 8vo. los. ed. " They will help to educate, not perhaps, parties, but the educators of parties. ' ' — Dai L Y N ews. 32 MACMILLAN'S CATALOGUE OF Fa W C e 1 1 . — continued. ESSAYS ON POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SUBJECTS. 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