HG M4 b UC-NRLF B M S7T a7E O ^r XTbe XHniversitp of Cbicaoo MONEY AND PRICES A STATISTICAL STUDY OF PRICE MOVEMENTS A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ARTS AND LITERATURE IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (department of political economy) BY JAMES DYSART MAGEE Reprinted, with Additions, from The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. XXI, Nos. 8 and 9 Chicago, 19 13 trbe XHniversitp ot Cbicaoo MONEY AND PRICES A STATISTICAL STUDY OF PRICE MOVEMENTS A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ARTS AND LITERATURE IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (department of political economy) BY JAMES DYSART MAGEE Reprinted, with Additions, from The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. XXI, Nos. 8 and 9 Chicago, 19 13 MONEY AND PRICES A STATISTICAL STUDY OF PRICE MOVEMENTS I. INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD The recent literature on monetary theory is, to a great extent, concerned with a controversy as keen as any ever waged — the controversy over the Quantity Theory of Money. The discussion is carried on in rather better spirit than was shown in some of the earlier controversies, but the differences are just as marked and the defenders of each side just as earnest. Some sHght concessions have been made by each side. There have been some shiftings from untenable positions and much careful qualification in state- ment, but, in general, the result today seems to be a clear deadlock, each side refusing to give up its main contentions. Such a situation suggests that the line for future advance lies in a careful scrutiny of the facts of the case rather than in further theoretical analysis. The problem considered in this study is the relationship which exists between changes in the amount of money (in banks or in circulation), or changes in the amount of bank deposits on the one hand, and changes in general prices and changes in the prices of particular groups of commodities on the other hand. The study is primarily statistical — a study of what has actually happened. However, the bearing of the results upon certain theoretical points of monetary discussion is briefly indicated. 3 4 ■ MONEY AND PRICES Prices are often grouped for the study of price changes into classes,^ such as: wholesale prices, retail prices, prices of stocks, of bonds, of real estate, prices fixed by law, prices fixed by custom, wages, prices of commodities made of the money metal, prices for substitutes for such commodities, speculative prices, and rents. For many of these no index numbers are available; e.g., retail prices (except for food), real estate prices, prices fixed by law and custom, prices of commodities made of the money metal, of substi- tutes for them, and rents. In some cases, where material could be found, new index numbers were constructed for this study. On the other side of the comparison — the money side — we have estimates of the total and per capita circulation of money in the United States and statistics of the amount of specie and legal tenders and of deposits in the clearing-house banks of New York and Chicago. When the term money is used in this study in a general sense, it may mean any or all of these. It is clearly recognized that the list of price movements and of money movements given is not ideal, but availability and not theoretical perfection must be the determining factor. The dis- cussion is limited to the United States. The results obtained are stated merely as facts concerning the particular markets studied by certain methods for definite periods. No attempt is made to generalize the particular statements into laws holding for all times and all places. Such an attempt would require an estimate of the error which is involved in the process and also an estimate of the error involved in generalizing from a certain limited period. This last estimate especially would be very difficult, if not impossible, to get.* In economics we cannot experiment, and so we must rely on observation and comparison. We have price changes recorded in series of index numbers. The question then is whether any rela- tionship exists between the price movements indicated by these series of index numbers and variations in the amount of money in ' Cf. Johnson, Money and Currency, p. 127; Fisher, The Purchasing Power of Money, pp. 186-87. ' Cf. Edgeworth, "On the Use of the Theory of Probabilities in Statistics Relat- ing to Society," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, LXXVI (January, 1913), 186-87. INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD 5 circulation or in banks during the same period. Taking causation in Karl Pearson's sense of "an antecedent stage in a routine of perceptions,"* we evidently must find out whether changes in one series are followed by corresponding changes in the other series and get some method for summarizing, in simple form, the result of our observation. Pearson's Coefficient of Correlation has been used at times for this purpose.* But the applicability of the method of correlation to cases involving index numbers has been questioned.^ The objections to the use of the Coefficient of Correlation with index numbers are (i) that it entirely disregards the element of time, and (2) that it shows perfect correlation when the absolute changes are the same as well as when the relative changes are the same. When we are dealing with index numbers we are, of course, con- cerned with relative, not absolute, changes. The present writer has proposed^ a means of expressing the relationship between two series, called the Degree of Correspond- ence. There are two cases: (i) where account is taken of the direc- tion of the change only, and (2) where the amount of the change as well as its direction is considered. To compute the Degree of Correspondence in the first form, we start with the definition of correspondence between successive terms of the two series. If an increase or decrease of one series occurs with a movement in the same direction of the other series, or if both remain constant, we say there is positive correspondence and express it by +i- If one series shows no change between two terms while the other changes, there is no correspondence, which is denoted by o. If one series increases and the other decreases, or vice versa, there is negative correspondence, indicated by — i. The numerical value for the first form of the Degree of Correspondence is found by taking the arithmetic mean of the numbers which indicate the correspondence ' Grammar of Science, p. 150, ' Cf. Yule, "The Application of the Method of Correlation to Social and Economic Statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, LXXII (December, 1909), 721. Yule gives a list of the more important cases of its use and some discussion of the results obtained. 3 Magee, "The Degree of Correspondence between Two Series of Index Numbers," Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Association, XIII (June, 1912), 174. 6 MONEY AND PRICES between the successive terms of the two series. It is obvious that this result may vary in value from + 1 to — i . Nothing particularly new is introduced in this method. The only novelty is to be found in the method of expressing the result. For example, Irving Fisher/ to disprove the theory that the rate of interest depends upon the amount of money in circulation, shows that the per capita circulation of money and the rate of interest, in the period 1 871-1905, vary together in i8| cases and in opposite directions in 15^^ cases. If interest did depend on the amount of money, we should expect to find that almost all of the cases showed variations in opposite directions. Fisher counts the cases where one factor is constant and the other varies, as neutral, and adds § to the number of direct variations and ^ to the number of inverse variations. King^ has an empirical method for getting an expres- sion for what he calls the Coefficient of Correlation (not, of course, the Pearsonian) by a formula which considers the relation of the number of pairs of items in the two series to the number of "con- current deviations" that is, deviations in the same direction. The basis for the use of this method of observing whether the changes of two series of quantities agree or not is the same, what- ever means are used to express the result, and may be given briefly as follows: If we consider the direction of the changes shown by two series of numbers entirely unrelated, and if the number of items in the two series is large enough to allow the Law of Averages to work, we should expect the number of agreements and disagree- ments to be about equal. If, in the long run, the agreements and disagreements are not equal, then we argue that there is some causal relation between the two series. Bowley^ has developed this idea in an analogous case. Illustrations of this principle are common. To take the classic example of dice throwing, if we are throwing a single die a large number of times, we expect to have each of the faces come up about the same number of times. If then, in the long run, one particular face comes up more frequently than the others, we conclude that the turning-up of the faces is not a matter ' The Rale of Interest, pp. 320-22. ' Elemetils of Statistical Method, p. 208. i Elements of Statistics (3d ed., London, 1907), p. 268. INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD 7 of chance, but that there is a specific relation of cause and effect. Probably the die is loaded. Or suppose we are studying the effect of changes in temperature upon the sale of some commodity. If no causal relationship exists, we should expect to find associated with increases or decreases in temperature, in the long run, prac- tically equal numbers of cases of increases and decreases of sales. But if, in the long run, an increase in temperature is found in most instances to be accompanied by an increase in sales, and a decrease in temperature by a decrease in sales, we should argue that some causal relationship existed between the two. The first form of the Degree of Correspondence, as was pointed out, has virtually been used by others, but in the second form some- thing new is added. For that form takes into account not only the direction of the change, as do the other methods similar to the Degree of Correspondence, but also the amount of the change. Unless the changes are in exactly the same proportion, we substitute for the I of the +i or — i of the first method, a fraction which is obtained as follows: the percentages of increase or decrease for the corresponding items are computed, and the smaller is divided by the larger. After this number has been computed for each pair of values, the arithmetic mean is taken and the result gives the Degree of Correspondence in the form which considers the amount as well as the direction of the changes. In most instances we shall use only the first form of the Degree of Correspondence. In a few cases where correspondence in more than direction might be expected, the second form will be employed. In a study of price changes and changes in the amounts of money, we are dealing with the results of a vast number of co- operating causes. It would be idle to expect that changes in prices could be the sole cause of changes in the amounts of money or that changes in the amounts of money could be the sole cause of changes in prices. So we use the broader term "causal influence" rather than the single word "cause." We are interested, then, in testing the amount of causal influence between the movement of prices and the movement of the volume of money, and in the question of the direction in which the causal influence runs. Some time often elapses between the cause and the effect. In 8 MONEY AND PRICES such a case we have an element of what is called "lag." It is this element of lag which enables us to trace morp causal influence from the facts displayed in one series to those displayed by the other than in the reverse direction. Suppose that we are dealing with two series expressed in weekly averages. We are interested in the movements of the series — whether the terms of the series are increasing or decreasing. We may designate as the movement for any given week, the change from the preceding week. Thus, if the term of the series for the first week in January were higher than that for the last week of December, we should express it by saying that the first week in January showed an upward movement. With this convention as to terminology, we may now show the importance of lag in the study of causal influence. If a week elapses between the cause and the apparent effect, then obviously the correspond- ence in the movement of the one series (the cause) with the move- ment of the other is not with the movement for the same week, but with the movement for the following week. Thus under the conditions assumed, the movement in the efect series for the second week in January would correspond to the movement in the cause series for the first week in January. The movement in the efect series for the third week in January would correspond to the move- ment in the cause series for the second week in January, and so on. Thus if we know that one series lags after the other, we assign the causal influence to the second series. Of course, we shall not expect to find cases where complete correspondence is shown when lag is allowed for and no correspondence is shown when lag is not allowed for. But we do expect to find cases where more correspond- ence is shown when lag is allowed for than when it is not. One reason for the lack of complete correspondence is the different lengths of time which may elapse between the cause and the effect. If the two series move together, both series may be the results of one cause, or the interval that separates cause and effect may be less than the unit of time covered by our figures. For example, if a day elapses between the cause and the effect, weekly figures would probably not show any lag. In arguing for the existence of more causal influence because there is more correspondence when lag is allowed for in one direc- INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD 9 tion than when it is allowed for in the other, we must remember certain limitations of the method. If we have two series moving all in the same direction, e.g., {i°; ig." 2°; 30.' 3°; lo}, then the correspond- ence (for direction) is perfect, whether we compare with the items of one series the same, previous, or later items of the other series. So the method gives us results only when the series do not move in the same direction all of the time. And any -long-continued movement in one direction lessens the possibility of telUng in which direction the causal relation lies. Then again we must consider the matter of periodicity. The two series may display some regularity of movement. If we take the two series {1°; 17', 15; is! 12}' we see that the terms alternately increase and decrease. The series then shows perfect positive correspondence (for direction) for the same items. If we shift one item forward or one item backward, then the comparison shows perfect negative correspondence. If we shift two items forward or two items backward, we get perfect positive correspondence again. We shall, in general, shift only a few items in each direction in order to avoid getting to the point where the periodicity of the series would explain the movement rather than any correspondence between the two series due to an element of lag. Two distinct kinds of information can be derived from the study of the correspondence of two series, if tests for lag are made in both directions: (i) we may get information as to the amounts and kind (whether positive or negative) of correspondence, and (2) by comparing the amounts of correspondence for the various amounts of lag, we may determine the direction in which the greater causal influence runs, remembering that the cause precedes the effect. An illustration may be given. Suppose we are testing two series, A and B, composed of weekly figures, and we find that the correspondence of the movement of A with the movement of B for the previous week is + • 20 for the same week is + ■ 16 for the following week is + . 10. We then say that B exerts more causal influence on A than A exerts on B, for the correspondence is greatest between A and the previous week of B. That is, the change in B precedes the change lO MONEY AND PRICES in A. If, however, the correspondence of the movement of A with the movement of B for the previous week is +.15 for ihe same week is + . 13 for the following week is + . 30, then we argue that A exerts more causal influence on B than B exerts on A, for the greatest correspondence of movement comes in B a week following the movement in A. In most cases where lag has been studied it has been tested in only one direction, because it is assumed that the causal influence runs in a certain direction. In this paper we shall test for lag in both directions, making no assumptions as to the direction in which the causal influence runs. One form of study of statistical movements attempts to separate the movement into various parts for study. Thus Norton^ analyzes movements in statistics as resolvable into certain ideal elements, namely, (i) the growth element, (2) periodic elements, and (3) dynamic elements: (a) the cycle, (b) the catastrophe, and (c) minor dynamical changes. We are not interested in following this analysis completely, but by taking long periods we get at least complete credit cycles, and by taking averages of various lengths of time we ehminate the matter of minor periodicity, e.g., the aver- age for the year eliminates any periodicity which occurs within the year. We are primarily interested in testing the relationship between price movements and the money movements just as they occur no matter from what cause they may arise. Having outlined the method to be used in our study, we may next indicate the material to be studied. The list of price move- ments studied is as follows: Bond prices on the New York Stock Exchange, 1890-1908, weekly, monthly, and yearly, from a table of index numbers prepared for this paper. Mitchell's Index Numbers of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, 1890-1909, monthly and yearly. The Commons and Stone Table of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, 1879-1901, yearly. Farm products' prices in Chicago, 1899-1908, monthly, from index numbers prepared for this paper from data given in the Bulletins of the Bureau of Labor. ' Stalistical Studies in the New York Money Market, p. 23. INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD II Speculative prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, 1899-1908, weekly and monthly, from an index number prepared for this paper. The Bureau of Labor's Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices, 1900-1911, monthly, and 1890-1911, yearly. The Aldrich Report's Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices, 1867-1890, yearly. With these various price movements are compared the appro- priate ones of the following: the movement of specie and legal tenders and net deposits of the New York Clearing House banks, weekly, monthly, and yearly; the movement of specie and legal tenders and gross deposits in the Chicago Clearing House banks, weekly and monthly; the total amount of money in circulation in the United States, monthly and yearly; and the per capita circulation of money in the United States, yearly. In addition, the statistical proofs of the Quantity Theory of Money, as given by Kemmerer and Fisher, are tested by the method of the Degree of Correspondence. In each case a table is constructed showing for the comparisons at the various intervals the number of instances of positive, nega- tive, and zero correspondence, in three columns headed +, — , and o. Then in a fourth column is given the numerical value of the Degree of Correspondence. Those who prefer may, of course, use some other method for summarizing the results so given. We shall now indicate briefly the bearing of these statistical studies upon present monetary discussion. First, it may be well to indicate clearly what the study does not pretend to do. No attempt is made to offer any complete explanation of price changes. The problem is a narrower one than that problem. The study merely tests the relationship which exists between certain price changes and certain changes in amounts of money. Then the question arises of how this narrower problem is related to the dis- cussion over the vaHdity of the Quantity Theory of Money, which is the principal point of diiference in the discussions of monetary theory at the present time. Probably some, at least, of the difference of opinion between the upholders of the Quantity Theory of Money and their opponents is due to differences in value theory. Both sides agree that a 12 MONEY AND PRICES steady increase in the supply of gold will raise prices. They disagree in their explanations of how the rise in prices will come about, and still more they disagree as to the amount of the change. The upholders of the Quantity Theory insist that "other things being equal," the changes in the two variables tend to be exactly pro- portional. Since both agree as to the long-run direction of the change, the argument is primarily on the question of the propor- tionality of the change. The ambiguity in the use of the word "tends," which has been often noticed, is seen here. Tendency may mean what will happen if other things do not interfere — a hypothetical statement; or, tendency may mean what will probably happen under existing circumstances. Tendencies in this sense are discovered by observation of actual occurrences. Perhaps the opponents of the Quantity Theory of Money are talking about what actually happens and the adherents merely about a hypo- thetical state of affairs. Our problem then may be stated in alternative ways : we are attempting to find out how far the alleged proportionality does occur; or, we are attempting to find out to what extent "other things" are not "equal" in actual experience. There are three classes of investigations. First, a study is made of the correspondence of certain particular price movements in given markets with the movement of money or deposits in banks or money in circulation. It is obvious that such investigations are not directly a test of the Quantity Theory of Money, for that theory is concerned with the general price level. But according to the Quantity Theory of Money the changes in the quantity of money affect the prices of various forms of wealth in different degrees. Prices do not move in unison: they vary in their adjust- ability. Irving Fisher^ gives a list of the various forms of wealth in the order of their adjustability to price changes. Stocks, in his opinion, are the most adjustable; wholesale prices are next, and bonds are the least adjustable. J. F. Johnson,^ however, maintains that increases in the volume of money affect first the prices of stocks and bonds, then speculative prices, and then wholesale prices. If this be true, then the correspondence of the movement of these ' The Purchasing Power oj Money, pp. 186-87. * Money and Currency, p. 127. INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD 1 3 prices with the movement of the amount of money should be close. Our investigation will determine how close it actually is, in the period studied. In the comparison of price movements with the movement of bank deposits, some light is thrown on the much-disputed question of whether money gets into banks causing deposits to increase and so causing prices to rise, or whether prices rise first and then deposits increase in order to transact the increased business. No attempt has been made to allow for changes in the volume of trans- actions. In so far as there are differences in volume it may be assumed that, in general, for the short periods we are considering, increased volume of transactions goes with rising prices, and vice versa, and so the changes in volume merely accentuate the price changes. The second type of investigation concerns the relation of move- ments in the amount of money to the movements of wholesale prices. This study may be called an investigation of the crude Quantity Theory of Money — crude because it neglects the factors of rapidity of circulation of money, the amount of bank deposits and their rapidity of circulation, and the volume of trade. To those who hold the Quantity Theory of Money in more refined forms, any lack of correspondence shown will simply measure the extent to which the "other things" were not equal. We may say that the result of such an investigation is a summing-up of the actual relation between the quantity of money and prices for certain periods. It has a bearing on the practicabihty of Irving Fisher's proposal to stabilize the dollar.^ The point which has been mentioned concerning bank deposits may be generalized and applied to money as well, in the cases of both particular and general prices. The question may be put in this form: Do changes in the supply of money cause changes in prices, or do changes in prices cause changes in the supply of money ? Irving Fisher's answer is given as follows: In a similar way seasonal variations in the price level are reduced by the alternate expansion and contraction of an elastic bank currency. In this case ' "A Compensated Dollar," Quarterly Journal of Economics, XXVII (February, 1913), 213. 14 MONEY AND PRICES temporarily, and to an extent limited by the amount of legal tender currency, money or deposits or both may be said to adapt themselves to the amount of trade ' The price level is normally the one absolutely passive element in the equation of exchange. It is controlled solely by the other elements and the causes ante- cedent to them, but exerts no control over them.* Fisher thus holds that temporarily the amount of money and deposits may be influenced by prices, but that normally the amount of money and bank deposits determines the prices (other things being equal). The following gives Laughlin's view: The quantity of media of exchange is a result, not a cause, of the evaluation between gold and goods, and therefore cannot have been the means of fixing prices.3 This reasoning holds presumably both for short periods and for long periods. The opposition of these two views is not exact since Laughlin is considering only the money which acts as media of exchange and not that which acts as the standard of value. He does not deny that changes in the quantity of the standard money metal affect its value. As has been pointed out, we are able to reach some conclusion concerning this problem of the direction in which the causal influ- ence runs by computing the Degree of Correspondence for various amounts of lag. The case is simple if the comparison of a given price movement with the movement of money for a preceding or following week, month, or year shows the highest degree of corre- spondence. But where the greatest Degree of Correspondence is found in the comparison of the given price movement with the money movement for the same week, month, or year, the case is not so simple. In order to get, in such a case, the clue to the direc- tion in which the causal influence runs, we are forced to consider whether the greater correspondence is shown when the comparison is made with the previous or with the subsequent money move- ments. ' The Purchasing Power of Money, p. i6i. ^ Ibid., p. 172. 3 Principles of Money, p. 362. INTRODUCTION AND DISCUSSION OF METHOD 1 5 The Degree of Correspondence has been computed only for the direction of the change in most of the cases. The resulting figures are larger than the figures would be for both direction and amount of the change, since this method uses +i or — i in the place of some fraction expressing the relative amounts of change. Some idea of the difference may be had from the cases where the Degree of Correspondence was computed for the direction of the change and then for the direction and the amount of the change, as was done in testing the statistical proofs of the Quantity Theory of Money presented by Kemmerer and Fisher. In the case of Kem- merer's proof the Degree of Correspondence for direction of change is + . 48 and for direction and amount of change is + . 20. In the case of Fisher's proof, the Degree of Correspondence for the direc- tion of the change is + . 3 1 , f or the direction and the amount of the change, the figure is + . 23. The third type of investigation examines certain attempts at statistical proofs of the Quantity Theory of Money. These proofs make allowances for the factors omitted from what we have called the crude theory. They compute from statistical determinations of the various factors what the price level should be and then com- pare it with the price level as given by index numbers. The Degree of Correspondence between the computed and the actual is found to test the conclusiveness of the proof. II. MONEY AND BOND PRICES The movement of bond prices on the New York Stock Exchange for the period from 1890 to 1908 inclusive is the first price move- ment to be studied. Weekly, monthly, and yearly averages are used. To make possible this study a new index number of bond prices was constructed. The index number was computed from the actual prices of certain of the bonds given by Kemmerer in his Seasonal Variations in the Relative Demand for Money in the United States, one of the publications of the National Monetary Commis- sion.^ Kemmerer gives the prices of twenty-seven different bonds ' Kemmerer, Seasonal Variations in the Relative Demand for Money in the United States, pp. 423-510. l6 MONEY AND PRICES for various periods. From this list were taken nine bonds whose prices are given for the period 1 890-1 908: Central Railroad of New Jersey, general gold fives of 1987 Chicago, Burlington and Quincy (Nebraska Extension), fours of 1927 Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Paul, general gold fours of 1989 Denver and Rio Grande, first consolidated gold fours of 1936 Iowa Central, first gold fives of 1938 Missouri Pacific, first consolidated gold sixes of 1920 New York Central and Hudson River (West Shore) , first fours guaranteed of 2361 St. Louis and San Francisco, general gold fives of 1931 Wabash, first gold fives of 1939 and the one bond for which prices are given for the period 1891- 1908, namely, Missouri, Kansas and Texas, first gold fours of 1990. The quotations for the prices were taken by Kemmerer from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle and are the prices on Friday of each week. As Kemmerer is interested in the problem of seasonal variations, he takes for each year only 52 quotations, even in the years which contain 53 Fridays. So it was necessary in such cases to supply the missing figures from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. In all cases the prices represent "and interest" prices, that is, accumulated interest is deducted. The average weekly price for the years 1890 to 1899 was taken as 100 and the index numbers for each week computed from this as a base. Then the arithmetic mean of the ten sets of index numbers was computed for each week; (for the first year the nine sets of index numbers were averaged). The year is started in each case with the week ending January 4 to 10, since a week ending in January i, 2, or 3 really has a majority of its days in the preceding year. The result of the calculation is given in Table I. From this table of weekly index numbers of bond prices was prepared one of monthly index numbers of bond prices. The arithmetic average of the index numbers of the four or five weeks which lie wholly or in a majority of their days within the month was taken as the index number for the month. The result of the calculation is given in Table II. MONEY AND BOND PRICES 17 The yearly index numbers of bond prices were obtained by taking the arithmetic mean of the 52 or 53 index numbers for the weeks which constitute the year. They are given in Table III. With the movement of bond prices as shown by the weekly index numbers we shall first compare the amounts of specie and legal TABLE I Index Numbers of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Weekly, 1890-1908. The Year Begins with the Week Ending — (Average 1890-1899=100) Week Jan. 4 Jan. 10 Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Jan. 6 Jan. s Jan. 4 Jan. 9 Jan. 8 Jan. 7 iSgo 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1. . . . 99-3 95.8 97.6 98.0 930 96.8 98.4 99-5 104.7 111.7 2. . . . 99 5 96 I 97 7 98 I 92 4 96.5 98 I 100. 1 105.2 112 2 3 99 6 95 8 97 8 99 3 91 9 96.6 9§ 2 100,6 105.1 112 9 4 99 7 96 2 9f 99 3 93 3 96.1 98 9 100.8 ioS-9 113 3 5.... 99 7 96 5 98 6 99 7 93 3 94-9 99 3 100.7 106.6 113 6 99 5 96 9f 3 100 93 8 95 I 99 7 100.3 106.5 113 I 7 99 5 96 2 98 5 99 7 92 7 94-8 100 8 100.2 106.7 113 I 8 99 4 95 7 «f 7 99 I 93 94-8 lOI 99-8 104.6 113 2 9 99 3 95 4 98 99 S 93 2 94-4 100 9 100. 1 105. 1 112 5 10 99 4 95 8 98 2 9f 6 93 6 94-4 100 3 98.8 103.3 113 2 II ... . 99 6 95 3 97 9 9f 6 94 I 93-9 99 8 99 I 103.0 113 3 12 99 6 95 I 98 2 98 8 94 9 95.6 99 6 98.3 102.0 113 3 13 99 6 95 2 9f I 98 4 96 2 95-3 99 97.3 102.2 113 6 14 99 2 95 98 4 99 97 2 95-4 99 6 96.8 102.4 113 3 IS 99 5 95 3 98 5 98 9 97 2 95-4 99 4 96.6 102.1 113 4 16 100 95 9 9f 4 99 96 9 95-9 99 6 97.0 100.9 114 17 100 3 95 9 98 6 98 5 96 I 96.7 TOO 9 97.3 100.5 114 7 18 100 95 5 98 6 97 2 96 5 97.3 TOO 7 97.2 103.3 114 6 19 100 3 95 I 99 97 2 95 6 98.6 100 9 96.9 104.1 114 7 20 ... . 100 4 94 5 99 2 96 6 95 4 98.2 lOI 96.8 104.1 114 8 21. . . . 100 3 94 6 99 96 5 94 8 98.4 100 9 96.9 104.9 115 2 22. . . . ICX3 3 93 8 99 96 3 94 7 99-5 100 6 97.8 105. 5 IIS 4 23.... 100 2 93 7 98 7 95 I 95 I 99.3 100 3 98.8 105.7 IIS 8 24 100 93 8 98 9 94 9 95 I 100. 99 7 99-4 105.9 IIS 7 25.... 100 2 93 7 98 9 94 3 94 6 100.6 100 6 99 8 106.2 115 8 26 100 2 93 6 98 8 92 9 94 5 100.2 100 4 100.6 106.7 115 9 27 99 9 94 3 9f 3 93 5 94 I 100. s 99 7 100. s 106.5 lis 7 28.... 99 7 94 98 3 92 8 93 9 100.3 99 6 100.8 106.9 115 6 29 99 7 93 9 9^ 3 91 9 94 6 100.3 97 3 101.2 107.0 lis S 30 99 3 93 I 98 3 89 4 93 8 100.7 95 8 101.8 107.1 115 7 31 98 9 93 98 4 89 93 5 101 .1 94 5 102.3 108.0 lis 6 32.... «f 7 93 3 98 4 f9 7 94 3 101.8 92 8 102.5 108.5 115 1 33 98 5 94 I 98 5 89 I 95 I 102.2 93 6 102.3 108.9 115 3 34 «f 4 94 4 ''f I 89 4 95 8 102.0 93 6 102.0 108.5 IIS 5 35 98 2 94 9 98 91 3 95 9 103.4 93 7 103. 1 108. 1 113 9 36.... 98 94 7 97 9 91 9 96 2 103.2 94 9 103.0 107. 5 lis 37 97 9 95 2 97 4 91 8 96 102.7 95 5 102.8 107.3 114 7 38.... ^^ 94 8 97 6 91 5 95 8 102.4 95 2 102.2 107.2 114 7 39.... 98 94 I 98 2 91 2 95 8 102.8 95 4 101.6 107.2 113 8 40 97 3 94 4 98 6 90 5 95 5 102.3 96 102.0 107.4 113 7 41 96 8 95 I ^S 90 5 95 8 102.3 95 7 101.6 107.6 113 S 42 96 8 95 I 98 2 90 9 95 6 102. 1 95 I 102.0 107.6 113 3 43 97 I 95 4 9f 92 7 95 8 101.8 95 5 IOI.9 107.8 113 S 44 96 6 94 7 98 2 93 5 95 8 loi.s 05 8 101.6 108. 1 113 4 4S 95 6 94 7 «! I 94 5 96 8 100.4 98 2 101.8 108,4 113 3 46.... 95 2 94 5 98 93 4 96 6 101.3 99 9 102.2 108, s 113 3 47 95 9 94 8 98 94 4 97 I 100.9 99 8 102.3 108,8 113 6 48. . . . 94 6 95 97 9 94 7 96 9 101.3 99 5 103.3 109.3 113 4 49 •••. 93 4 ^^ I 97 7 94 I 97 2 101.3 99 7 104.2 109, 9 113 4 SO.... 93 3 96 5 97 S 94 6 96 9 101.4 99 6 104.0 110.3 112 2 SI.... 93 5 97 I 97 3 93 96 9 99 7 99 3 104.0 110.3 110 2 S2.... 95 2 97 4 97 6 91 6 96 5 97.9 99 5 104.1 110.9 112 S3 94 9 99 3 i8 MONEY AND PRICES TABLE I— Continued Week Jan. 6 Jan. s Jan. 4 Jan. xo Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Jan. 6 Jan. s Jan. 4 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1 90s 1906 1907 1908 I 112. 3 117-9 118.8 1x6.9 114-3 117.3 X16.9 112.9 105.6 3 . . . . 1X2. 2 117. 8 118.7 X17 3 114.2 117-5 117. 112. 9 106.4 3 112.9 117-S 1x8.6 117. 2 1x4-9 117-9 117. 1 113.0 107.3 4 113-9 n8.o XX9-3 1x6.3 1x4.7 X17.7 1x6.8 113 107,8 S II4-3 118. XX9.6 X16.9 X14 5 XX7.8 116.7 112. 8 109,1 6.... 114.8 118. 7 119 s 117. 1x4.x 1x8. 116. 5 112.6 108,1 7 114.6 ii8.8 119 S 1x6. 9 1x4.2 1x8. X 116. 4 112.2 107.9 8.... 114. 1 118.3 119 s 1x6.7 X13 6 1x8. 116.4 112. 1 107.3 Q 114. 1 118.8 1x9 5 1x6.1 113 6 118.1 115-7 111.8 106.1 lO 114-3 118.7 119.7 IIS 9 1x3-6 117-9 115-7 IXX.O 106.4 11 114. 2 118.7 119-7 nS-8 113 5 1x7-7 lis 4 XXO. 2 106.2 12 .... H4-S 118. 9 120. X 1X5-8 113-6 1x8.x IIS 3 XO9.8 ioS-9 13 114-9 118. 9 X20, X 115-2 113-7 1X7-9 115-4 109.0 106.0 14 iiS-o 1x8. 8 X20.0 114-5 1x40 1x7-9 IIS-I 108.9 106.5 IS IIS. 3 118. 6 X20.0 1x4.6 114.0 1X7-8 114.9 109,9 106.8 i6 iiS-i 118.4 120.3 115-2 1x4.2 117-6 114.8 109,9 107.1 17 1150 118. s 120. I 115-2 1x4.4 II7-5 114-3 1x0,5 107.4 i8 . . . . iiS-O 1x8. 5 120.x iiS-6 1x4.4 1x7-5 114.2 110,5 107.6 19 114.4 X17-9 X20. 2 iiS-9 114.7 117-7 114.1 110,4 107.6 30 114-2 117. 9 119.9 liS-4 114-3 1x7-7 114-4 109-9 107.8 31 .... 114 3 1x8.0 119 7 115. 2 114-3 117-6 114-6 109,8 107.9 33 114.0 1x8.0 XX9.8 115.3 114. 2 117.4 114. 5 109-5 107 -5 S3 114.2 1X8.2 1x9. 8 114.7 114.4 117-4 II4-S 109,2 107.8 34 ... . 113-8 X19.0 1x9. 8 114-7 114-7 117-3 114. 6 109.0 107.4 35 113s xig.o 1x9.7 114-3 114-9 117-3 1x4.6 108.7 107-4 36 ... . 113-4 1x8,8 H9.8 114. iiS-i IX7-X 114-S 108,9 107-4 37 113-3 1x8.6 1x9.6 113-7 llS-4 1x7.x 114-S 108,5 108,1 38 ... . 113 8 1x8.0 II9-S 113 3 115-4 1x7-1 114-4 108,9 107,4 39 114.0 117. 8 1x9. 6 113 I IIS 9 1x7.2 114-4 108,7 107,6 30 — 113 9 1x7.6 119-S XX2.9 iiS-8 117-3 114.2 108,7 108.2 31 .... 113 8 1x7.6 1x9-4 112. 5 116.0 117-4 114.0 108,7 108.4 32 — 113-8 117-S 119.2 1x2.7 llS-9 1X7-3 113-9 108,5 109,0 33 114.0 117.7 xxg.o 112.3 115-8 117.6 113 8 107,8 xo8,7 34 113 9 117-S 1x8.8 112. 2 iiS-8 117.7 113-7 107.8 108,9 35 . • • • 113.9 1x7-9 1x8. 8 1X2.8 lxS-9 1x7.2 113 6 107.4 108,8 36 ... . 114.0 117-7 1x8.7 113 116.1 1x7.2 113-4 107.2 109,4 37 114.7 117-7 1x8.5 II3-3 1X6.2 XX7.2 1131 107.1 109. S 38 ... . II3-7 117-7 1x8.3 1X2. 8 1x6.1 117-3 112-7 107.1 109,4 39 II3S 1x7.6 117. 2 112.3 116.0 117-2 112.7 107.4 109.4 40 113-4 117-3 1x8.5 1X2. Q X16.0 1x7.2 1130 107.1 109.3 41 113 6 117-6 X18.1 1x2.9 116. 2 117 3 1x3 2 107.0 109 5 43 ... . 113.6 117-9 XI7-9 113 8 116.2 "7-3 113-3 106.6 109.7 43 114.2 1x8. xxS.o 1x4.x 1x6. 3 1x7.2 113-2 105 -7 109-9 44 114. 1 1x8.0 1x8. X X13-8 X16.S 1X7-4 113-1 105,2 no. 5 45 114.6 1x8.2 X17.8 1x3-3 1x6.5 1x7.2 1130 104,8 no. 7 46 ... . IIS 6 Il8.2 1X7-7 1x3-7 116. 7 XX7.0 112.8 104,1 1x0.9 47 115-3 1x8.5 117.6 XX3-6 1x6.4 1x6.8 113.3 102,4 III .1 48 ... . 116. 1 1x8.5 X17-7 1x3.8 1x6.8 116.9 113.6 102,7 111.3 49 116.6 1x8.x XX7-3 1140 116.9 116.7 113-4 104.1 1X1.6 SO 116. 8 1x7-9 117-3 X14.0 116.9 1x6.9 113 104-3 XXX. 9 SI 117. 1 1x7 9 xx6.8 X14.1 117. 1 1x6.7 112. 8 103-8 III. 6 S2 117. 5 118-3 1x6.8 114-I 117-3 1x6.7 112.3 104 -I 111.8 S3 X16.8 112.1 tenders in the New York .Clearing House banks for the same period. These figures were taken from the publications of the National Monetary Commission/ In a few years in which there should have been given 53 weekly statements of the Clearing House, one weekly statement was omitted and had to be suppUed from the files of the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. As is well known, ^ Statistics for the United Slates, 1867-1909, pp. Andrew (Washington, 19 10). -118. Compiled by A. Piatt MONEY AND BOND PRICES 19 these statements give for each week the average amount held for that week in the combined statement for all of the banks that belong to the Clearing House. It is recognized that the figures TABLE II Index Numbers of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Monthly, 1890-1908 (Average 1890-1899 = 100) Month January February .... March April May June July August September . . . October November . . . December. . . 1890 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 99 99 99 99 100 100 99 98 98 96 95 94 98 98.7 99.6 96.2 94.8 94.8 95 9 98.4 100. 100.6 102.4 X02.8 102.0 lOI.O 100. 1 100 99 100 100 100 97 93 95 95 99 99 100.3 100.3 98.7 96.9 97 o 99 3 loi .1 102.3 102. s 101.9 102.0 103.9 105.2 106.1 103.1 101. s 104.1 106.0 106.9 108.4 107.3 107.6 108.5 no. I 112. 5 1131 113a 113-9 114.9 115-8 1156 115.1 114. 6 ii3S 113-4 112.0 Month January February March April May June July August September October November December 113 114 114 lis 114 113 113 113 114 113 115 117 190X 117.8 118. 7 118.8 n8.6 118.1 118.8 117.9 117.7 117.7 117-8 118.4 118.1 119 119 119 120 119 119 119 119 118 118 117 "7 1903 116.9 116.9 115-9 114.9 IIS-S 114.8 113-4 112.4 112.8 113-2 113 6 114.0 1904 114-S 114.1 113-6 114. 2 114.4 114.7 115-6 115-9 116.1 116.2 116. 6 117. 1 1905 117.6 118.0 117-9 117-7 117.6 117-3 117.2 117-4 117.2 117-3 117.1 116.8 1906 116. 9 116.3 115-5 114.8 114-4 114.6 114-4 113-8 113-0 113-2 113-2 112.9 1907 112.9 112.2 IIO.O 109.8 no.o 109.0 108.7 107.9 107.2 106.3 103 -5 104.x 1908 107.3 107.4 106. 1 X07.1 107.7 107. S 107.9 108.9 109.4 109.9 IXI.O XXI. 8 TABLE III Index Numbers of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Yearly, 1890-1908 (Average 1890-1899 = 100) 1892 1893 1804 95 189s 1896 1897 1898 180Q 99-1 98.4 100.6 106.3 114. o 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 114 4 118 2 118 9 114 5 115 2 1905 1906 1907 1908 117. 4 114. 4 108. 5 108. s are not strictly comparable throughout the period, for the number of banks varies from 66 to 48; the larger number applies to the earlier years. The decline in the number of banks is no doubt due, 20 MONEY AND PRICES generally, to consolidation, and so in most cases is merely nominal. But even granting that some of the changes in numbers represent real changes in the banking area covered by the statistics, yet the reports give us, of all available statistics, by far the most reliable figures for changes in the amount of money in any financial center of the United States. The results obtained by comparing the movement of bond prices with that of specie and legal tenders for various weeks are given in Table IV. TABLE IV CORRESPO>fDENCE OF THE MOVEMENT OF BOND PRICES ON THE NeW YoRK StOCK Exchange, Weekly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of the Amount of Specie and Legal Tenders in the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Specte and Legal Tenders por Correspondence Degree Third week previous . . Second week previous. Previous week Same week Following week Second week following 466 481 527 495 487 452 389 373 330 362 372 405 134 136 134 134 132 134 + .078 + .109 + .199 + •134 + .116 + •047 The highest degree of correspondence is revealed when we com- pare the movement of the bond prices with the movement of specie and legal tenders for the previous week. The result may be put in another way, namely, that during the period considered, in 60 out of 100 cases, a movement in the amount of specie and legal tenders was followed the next week by a movement of bond prices in the same direction. So much has been written of bank deposits as currency, that it will be of interest to see whether any relation exists between their movement and the movement of bond prices. As in the previous case, the figures for the net deposits of the New York Clearing House banks are taken from the publications of the National Monetary Commission,' with omissions supplied from the Commer- cial and Financial Chronicle. Comparing the two movements at varying intervals we obtain the results found in Table V. ^ Statistics for the United States, 1867-1909, pp. 98-118. MONEY AND BOND PRICES 21 Here the greatest correspondence is for the same week; for the period covered, in about 6i cases out of loo the two movements correspond. Slightly more correspondence is seen in the weeks following than for the weeks preceding, showing that there are more cases in which a change in the bond price movement was followed by a corresponding change in net deposits than there are cases in which a change in net deposits is followed by a corresponding change in bond prices. TABLE V Correspondence of the Movement of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Weekly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of Net Deposits in the New York Clearing House Banks MOVEBfENT OF NeT DEPOSITS FOR Correspondence + Degree Second week previous . Previous week Same week Following week Second week following 460 S16 533 531 491 401 340 323 327 367 129 135 13s 133 '^33 + .060 + .178 + . 212 + . 206 + .125 From the weekly figures for specie and legal tenders and for net deposits the monthly figures were derived by taking the average of the amounts for the four or five weeks which lie wholly or for most part within the month. The comparison of the movement TABLE VI Correspondence of the Movement of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Monthly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders for Correspondence + - Degree Previous month 120 131 108 94 84 107 12 12 12 + .IIS + .207 + .004 Same month Following month of these figures for specie and legal tenders with the movement of the monthly index number of bond prices gives Table VI. In this case there appears to be a fair amount of correspondence for 22 MONEY AND PRICES the same month and considerably more for the previous month than for the following month. The monthly movement of net deposits shows the correspond- ence with the movement of bond prices at varying intervals noted in Table VII. We find for this comparison the same general results as in the comparison of the weekly movements of these same two sets of figures, but here the correspondence is higher. TABLE VII Correspondence of the Movements of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Monthly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of Net Deposits in the New York Clearing House Banks Correspondence Movement of Net Deposits for + - Degree Previous month 121 148 127 93 67 88 12 12 12 + .124 Same month + ■357 Following month + •172 The month is the shortest interval at which we have estimates made of the amount of money in circulation in the United States. The pubhcations of the National Monetary Commission' give estimates of the amount of money in circulation on the first day of each month. A figure for the circulation for the month was found by taking the average of the estimates for the first of the month and for the first of the following month, e.g., the amount of money in circulation in January was taken as the average of the amounts in circulation on January i and February i. The New York bond market is in a sense a national market, so we may compare the movement of bond prices with the amount of money in circulation as calculated by the above method (see Table VIII). The highest degree of correspondence is that with the money in circulation for the previous month. For this period in 58 out of 100 cases a change in the amount of money in circulation was fol- lowed by a similar movement in bond prices the next month. Less correspondence is shown here than was obtained when the com- parison was with specie and legal tenders or with net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks. ^ Statistics for the United States, 1867-1909, pp. 161-64. MONEY AND BOND PRICES 23 Yearly averages are given in the publications of the National Monetary Commission^ for the amounts of specie and legal tenders and net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks. These TABLE VIII Correspondence of the Movement of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Monthly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of the Amount OF Money in Circulation in the United States Correspondence + - Degree Second month previous 117 123 IIS 98 92 87 96 113 16 16 16 16 + .III Previous month + 159 + .084 Same month Following month -.066 TABLE IX Correspondence of the Movement of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Yearly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of the Amount op Specie and Legal Tenders in the New York Clearing House Banks MovEJiENT or Specie and Legal Tenders for Correspondence Degree Previous year Same year Following year Second year following 13 4 12 5 4 13 5 + .389 + ■500 — .500 + •389 TABLE X Correspondence of the Movement of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Yearly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of Net Deposits in the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Net Deposits for Correspondence Degree Previous year . Same year . . . . Following year 14 6 + .278 + .611 -.278 averages are compared with the yearly bond prices in Tables IX and X. The table shows a high degree of positive correspond- ence for the same year and an equally high degree of negative ^ Ibid, pp. 98-118. 24 MONEY AND PRICES correspondence for the following year. In other words, in the pro- portion of 75 out of ICO cases the two moved together, and in the proportion of 75 out of 100 cases a movement of bond prices in one direction was followed the next year by a movement of specie and legal tenders in the opposite direction. Of course, where the number of cases considered is so small there may be a large element of chance in the results. The correspondence for the same year is high. In the proportion of 81 out of 100 cases, the movement is in the same direction. With the yearly movement of bond prices we compare both the movement of the total circulation of money and the movement of the per capita circulation of money. For the latter figures we take the estimates for July i , as given in the publications of the National Monetary Commission.^ July i is the mid-point of the year, and so may be taken as the figure for the year. One change has been made in the figures as given by the National Monetary Commission. The figures given are the estimates of the Director of the Mint. As is known these are prepared by starting with the estimate of the previous year and adding an amount which represents new coins and bills and importations, and subtracting an amount which represents coins melted and exported and bills retired, and adding or subtracting the net movement out from or into the Treasury. As the result of a special investigation, the Director of the Mint subtracted $135,000,000 from the estimate for July i, 1907, to cover mistakes which had been made previously. This subtraction makes no difference in our calculation of the movement of total circulation, for after subtracting this amount there is an increase over the previous year. However, it does make a difference in the per capita circulation. In order to get figures strictly comparable, therefore, an amount for per capita circulation was calculated for 1907 to be used in comparison with 1906 by adding $135,000,000 to the total circulation on July i, 1907, and dividing by the figure for the estimated population of the United States on that date which was used by the Director of the Mint.^ For the comparison of 1907 with 1908 the revised figure was used. ' Slaiistics for the United States, 1867-1909, p. 155. 'Statistical Abstract for the United Stales for 191 1, p. 580. MONEY AND BOND PRICES 2S For the period covered by the index numbers of bond prices, the movement of total circulation and per capita circulation is exactly the same, so that one correspondence table will suffice for both (Table XI). TABLE XI Correspondence of the Movement of Bond Prices on the New York Stock Exchange, Yearly, 1890-1908, with the Movement of Total Circula- tion AND also Per Capita Circulation of Money in the United States Movement of Total and Per Capita Circulation for Correspondence Degree Previous year . Same year . . . . Following year 13 9 + .278 + .500 + .056 It is scarcely necessary to point out the small number of cases considered and the consequent element of chance which enters into the calculation. With this reservation we may say that there is a high degree of correspondence shown for the same year. To sum up: The degree of correspondence has been computed between the movements of the index numbers of bond prices on the New York Stock Exchange from 1890 to 1908 and the movement of specie and legal tenders and of net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks and the movement of the total and per capita circulation of money in the United States. Three computations are made in the comparison with the movement of specie and legal tenders and with the movement of net deposits using weekly, monthly, and yearly averages. For the comparison with the total circulation of money both monthly and yearly averages are used. Only yearly averages are employed in the comparison with the per capita circulation of money. In all, nine computations of the Degree of Correspondence are made. Of these nine, the highest are those which arise from the comparison of the yearly movements of the index numbers of bond prices with the various movements of money in banks and in circu- lation and the movement of net deposits in banks. The maximum Degree of Correspondence shown is that of the movement of the 26 MONEY AND PRICES yearly index number of bond prices with the yearly changes in the amount of net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks. This maximum correspondence indicates that in the proportion of 8i out of loo cases, the two movements agreed in the direction of their changes. Even this maximum observed correspondence is far from being complete. Still, sufficient correspondence is shown to favor J. F. Johnson's view that bond prices adjust them- selves fairly readily to price changes, rather than Irving Fisher's view that bond prices are in the class of prices which are the last to be affected in price changes. In six of the cases considered, the correspondence of the movement of the index numbers of bond prices is greatest when the comparison is made with the movement of specie and legal tenders, net deposits, total circulation of money, or per capita circulation of money for the same week, month, or year, as the case may be. In these cases, therefore, no element of lag is shown. In the comparison of the weekly and monthly bond price move- ment with the movement of net deposits, the correspondence with the movement of net deposits for the following week or month is higher than with the m.ovement for the preceding week or month. The conclusion is that changes in the amount of net deposits have more frequently adjusted themselves to bond prices than bond prices have adjusted themselves to the amount of net deposits. When we test the relationship between bond price movement and the move- ment of specie and legal tenders, total and per capita circulation of money, and the yearly averages of net deposits, we find that the correspondence is greater when the comparison is between the bond price movement and the movement of the other terms of the com- parison for a preceding week, month, or year than when it is for a following week, month, or year. From this circumstance we con- clude that there is more causal influence from the specie and legal tenders, total and per capita circulation of money, and the yearly average of net deposits to the bond prices than there is in the reverse direction. We infer from the degree of correspondence shown that consider- able allowance must be made for "other things" not "being equal," especially in the weekly and monthly comparisons. MONEY AND STOCK PRICES 27 III. MONEY AND STOCK PRICES Professor Mitchell has compiled an index number of stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange, monthly and yearly, from 1890 to 1909/ The average price of the stocks from 1890 to 1899 is taken as the base. The prices of forty stocks are included : thirty-five are the common stocks of railroads and the other five are the stocks of express, steamship, and telegraph companies. An index number for the high and the low price for each month is given. For the purpose of testing the correspondence with the movement of the volume of money, the mean of these high and low quotations was taken as the index nvimber for the month. We compare first the monthly stock price movement and the figures for the monthly averages of specie and legal tenders in the New York Clearing House banks derived as was explained above. TABLE XII Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Monthly, 1890-1909, with the Movement of the Amount of Specie and Legal Tenders in the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders for Correspondence + - Degree Second month previous Previous month 120 119 119 130 104 108 no III 99 124 9 9 9 9 9 + .051 + .038 Same month + .033 Following month + •130 Second month following — .084 In general it is seen that little correspondence is shown. The greatest correspondence is in the case which indicates that a move- ment in stock prices was, in about 57 times out of 100, followed the next month by a corresponding movement in the amount of specie and legal tenders in the banks. We next take the comparison of the monthly stock prices with the movement of net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks as shown by the figures derived as was explained above. ' "The Prices of American Stocks, 1890-1909," The Journal of Political Economy, XVIII (May, 1910), 345-80. 28 MONEY AND PRICES TABLE XIII Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Monthly, 1890-1909, with the Movement of Net Deposits of the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Net Deposits for Correspondence + Degree Previous month Same month Following month Second month following 127 132 136 127 93 lOI + .105 + .142 + .181 + . no The correspondence exhibited here is considerably higher than that shown in the preceding case and here again the greatest cor- respondence is shown with the month following. In 59 out of 100 cases the movement in stock prices is followed by a correspond- ing movement in net deposits. As in the case of bond prices, we may compare the movement of stock prices with the movement of the total money in circulation in the United States, since the whole country buys in the New York market. TABLE XIV Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Monthly, 1890-1909, with the Movement of the Total Circulation of Money in the United States Correspondence + - Degree Previous month 1x8 121 122 114 107 105 104 112 13 13 13 13 + .046 Same month + .067 Following month + ■075 Second month following + .008 Very little correspondence is shown. As was true of the two preceding cases, the greatest amount of correspondence comes in the comparison with the following month. We compare next the yearly movement of stock prices with the movement of the yearly averages of the amounts of specie and MONEY AND STOCK PRICES 29 legal tenders and of net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks. TABLE XV Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Yearly, 1890-1909, with the Movement of the Amount of Specie and Legal Tenders in the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders for Correspondence Degree Second year previous Previous year Same year Following year 9 14 + .474 + .158 — .III The correspondence with the previous year is highest. In the proportion of 74 out of 100 cases, a movement in specie and legal tenders in one year was followed by a corresponding movement in stock prices the next year. TABLE XVI Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Yearly, 1890-1909, with the Movement of Net Deposits in the New York Clearing House Banks Movement of Net Deposits for Correspondence Degree Second year previous Previous year Same year Following year 16 II 6 10 3 — . Ill + .684 + .158 -■333 The correspondence of the movement of stock prices with the movement of net deposits for the previous year is high. In the proportion of 84 cases out of 100 a movement of net deposits was followed by a corresponding movement in stock prices the next year. However, there are scarcely enough cases to make it safe to generalize. Mitchell's yearly index numbers of stock prices give the follow- ing tables when compared with the total circulation and also the 30 MONEY AND PRICES per capita circulation of the United States obtained as indicated above. TABLE XVII Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Yearly, 1890-1909, with the Total Circulation of Money in the United States Movement of Total Circulation for Correspondence Degree Second year previous Previous year Same year Following year II 7 7 9 -.158 + .263 + .263 + 053 A fair degree of correspondence is indicated for the previous year and for the same year. The correspondence is the same for both cases. TABLE XVIII Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Mitchell's Index Numbers), Yearly, 1890-1909, and the Move- ment OF Per Capita Circulation of Money in the United States Movement of Per Capita Circulation for Correspondence Degree Second year previous Previous year Same year Following year 9 12 12 9 10 7 7 10 -053 + .263 + .263 -053 The greatest correspondence is the same here as in Table XVII, the previous year and the same year having a fair degree of corre- spondence. Commons and Stone prepared for the Industrial Commission a yearly index number of the prices of 28 railroad stocks for the years ending June 30, 1879-1901.^ Since the fiscal year is used instead of the calendar year, we must compare the movement with the total and per capita circulation of money for January i ' Report of the United States Industrial Commission, XIX, 29. MONEY AND STOCK PRICES 31 instead of July i , as in the former cases. The figures for January i , 1879, were obtained from the Monthly Summary of Commerce and Finance.^ The total circulation for the other years was taken from the publications of the National Monetary Commission.' The figures for the per capita circulation were obtained by taking the arithmetic means of the amounts for the June 30 preceding and the June 30 following. The comparisons of these figures with the stock price movement is given in Table XIX. TABLE XIX Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices on the New York Stock Exchange (Commons and Stone's Index Numbers), Yearly, 1879-1901, with the Movement of the Total Money in Circulation in the United States Movement of Total Circulation for Correspondence Degree Third year previous . . Second year previous . Previous year Same year Following year Second year following 15 12 13 17 14 II S 9 9 S 7 158 SCO 143 182 545 333 The figures do not exhibit the regularity of results observable in the other tables. Perhaps this fact is due to the small number of years available and to some sort of periodicity. A high degree of correspondence is shown for the following year and also about the same amount for the second year previous. Our next compari- son is with the per capita circulation of money in the United States (Table XX). Once again the results are not regular. The high- est degree of correspondence is shown this time by the second year following. To sum up: With the movement of Mitchell's monthly index numbers of stock prices has been compared the movement of specie and legal tenders and of net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks and of the total of circulation of money in the United States. Further, comparison has also been made between the ' Monthly Summary of Commerce and Finance for June, 1912, p. 2018. ' Statistics for the United Stales, 1867-1909, pp. 159-63. 32 MONEY AND PRICES yearly movement of the index numbers of the stock prices and the per capita circulation of money in the United States. The move- ment of Commons and Stone's index numbers has been compared with the yearly movement of total and of per capita circulation of money in the United States. TABLE XX CORRESPONTJENCE OF THE MOVEMENT OF StOCK PrICES ON THE NeW YoRK StOCK Exchange (Commons and Stone's Index Numbers), Yearly, 1879-1901, with THE Movement of Per Capita Circulation of Money in the United States Movement of Per Capita Circulation for Correspondence Degree Second year previous. Previous year Same year Following year Second year following Third year following . 9 II 14 7 13 9 13 16 9 5 13 7 — .100 + •333 + .182 + .182 + •524 + .300 As in the case of bond prices, the correspondence between the stock price movement and the various other movements with which it is compared is greater for the movement of the yearly averages than for the movements of the averages for the shorter periods. The movement of stock prices corresponds more closely with the movement of net deposits than with the movement of specie and legal tenders. The maximum correspondence is found in the com- parison of the yearly movement of stock prices and the yearly movement of net deposits. The two movements correspond in direction in the proportion of 84 cases out of 100. This correspond- ence is slightly higher than the maximum in the case of the compari- sons made with the bond price movement, but still is not complete correspondence. The correspondence obtained in the comparisons involving the monthly movement of stock prices is not so high as that obtained in the similar comparisons of the monthly movement of bond prices. We may contrast the relative amounts of corre- spondence obtained when the movement of Mitchell's index number of stock prices is compared with the movement of specie and legal tenders, of net deposits, and of total and per capita circulation of MONEY AND STOCK PRICES 33 money for preceding months or years and for following months or years. The contrast bears out Irving Fisher's analysis, at least so far as the direction of the change is concerned; since he holds that for short periods, the amounts of money and deposits to some extent adapt themselves to the needs of trade, but that normally the price level is passive and is controlled by the other terms of the equation of exchange. The confirmatory evidence is that the monthly observations show more causal influence from the stock prices to the specie and legal tenders, net deposits, and total cir- culation than in the reverse direction, while for the yearly averages, more causal influence is shown from the specie and legal tenders, net deposits, and total and per capita circulation of money to the stock prices than in the reverse direction. However, when we use the Commons and Stone index numbers, which are also yearly averages, the comparison shows more causal influence from the stock prices to the total and per capita circulation than in the reverse direction. Just why there should be this difference between the two index numbers is not evident. Perhaps it is due to the fact that the time covered by the index numbers is not the same. The Mitchell index numbers cover the period from 1890 to 1909, while the Commons and Stone figures are for the period from 1879 to 1901. 34 MONEY AND PRICES IV. MONEY AND FARM PRODUCTS PRICES IN CHICAGO The prices of the group of articles called "farm products" in the index numbers of wholesale prices prepared by the Bureau of Labor are largely taken from the Chicago markets. From these prices an index number was prepared of the prices of farm products in Chicago, monthly, for the period from 1899 to 1908. The list of products is as follows : Barley, choice to fancy Cattle, steers, choice to fancy Cattle, steers, good to choice Corn, cash Flaxseed, No. i Hay, timothy, No. i Hides, green salted packers Hogs, heavy Hogs, light Oats, cash Rye, No. 2 Sheep, wethers, good to fancy, native Sheep, wethers, plain to choice, western Wheat, contract grades For the years 1902-8, the monthly index numbers for the differ- ent articles are given in the yearly reports of the Bureau of Labor on wholesale prices. For the years 1899 to 1901 the monthly index numbers are not given and hence they were computed from the actual prices as given in the reports.'' The weekly high and low prices are given in these tables. The average monthly price was found by taking the arithmetic average of the means of the high and low prices of the weeks of the month. Then the index numbers of the various products were obtained by comparing the monthly price with the base price of each article as given by the Bureau of Labor. The average of the monthly index numbers for the various commodities so computed, or taken directly from the bulletins of the Bureau of Labor, was then calculated to obtain the index numbers of the prices of farm products which follow. ' Bulletin of the Bureau of Labor, No. 39 (March, 1902), 244 ff. MONEY AND FARM PRODUCTS PRICES IN CHICAGO 35 TABLE XXI Index Nxtmbers of the Prices of Farm Products in Chicago, Monthly, from 1899 to 1908 (Average 1890-99 = 100) Month January . . February . March April May June July August . . . September October. . , November December . 1899 1900 1901 igo2 1903 ig04 1 90s igo6 1907 98.6 104. 1 iii-S 131-2 118. 2 no. 5 120.7 118. 7 128.5 99.6 112. 3 112. 9 130.9 119-3 116. 8 122.6 119. 1 134-8 995 III .2 114. 9 132.0 122. 1 119. 7 125. 5 120.0 135-6 102.3 116. 5 117. 137.6 121.5 120.3 126.6 123.5 137-9 103-3 112. 6 117. 7 140.7 119. 6 119. 8 124-7 125.8 142.6 101.6 III. 4 115. 6 140.2 117-5 120.6 124.7 129.2 146.6 102.8 no. 2 118. 8 143-5 III. 6 119. 8 116. 3 126.4 142.2 100.6 107 -5 121. 8 13I-3 no. 9 119. 8 122.8 1245 142.6 104.2 108.7 120. 5 125.6 112. 5 120. 2 118. 6 126.0 148.8 103. 1 108.2 121. 6 124. 1 109. 1 119. 7 119-4 126.6 149-2 103.0 III. I 122.0 118. 8 102.9 121. 7 118. 125.7 130.3 103.8 109.3 128. 1 116. 8 104.0 118. 6 120. 1 129.3 129. 1 igo8 132.8 129.8 137-7 140.4 140.2 135-6 139-3 139.0 139-3 I37-I 137.6 136.7 Statistics for the amount of specie and legal tenders and the amount of gross deposits in the Chicago Clearing House banks were taken from the publications of the National Monetary Commission.^ The figures are given by weeks. The monthly figures were obtained as in the corresponding case of the New York statistics, by aver- aging the amounts for the four or five weeks which He wholly or for most part within the month. In two instances for the period imder consideration, where there should have been 53 weekly reports for the year, but 52 were given. As the quotations were not avail- able elsewhere, the missing quotation, in one instance, was suppHed by taking the mean of the previous and following quotations, and in the other, the quotation was simply dropped, since it came at the close of the last year considered. It is to be noted that gross deposits are considered instead of net deposits as was the case with the reports of the New York banks. We will next compare the movement of the prices of farm products in Chicago with the movements of specie and legal tenders and of gross deposits in the banks of the Chicago Clearing House. In no case is the degree of correspondence high; in two cases it is positive and in two cases, negative. In 56 cases out of 100 the movement of prices agrees with the movement of the specie and ^ Statistics for the United States, 1867-1909, pp. 141-50. 36 MONEY AND PRICES TABLE XXII Correspondence of the Movement of the Prices of Farm Products in Chicago, Monthly, 1899-1908, ^VITH the Movement of the Amount of Specie AND Legal Tenders in the Chicago Clearing House Banks Correspondence Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders for + - Degree Second month previous Previous month 58 65 53 50 57 51 64 66 2 2 2 2 + .009 + . 119 Same month — .092 Following month -.136 legal tenders for the previous month, and in 57 cases out of 100 the price movement is in the opposite direction to the movement of specie and legal tenders for the following month. TABLE XXIII Correspondence of the Movement of the Prices of Farm Products in Chicago, Monthly, i 899-1 908, with the Movement of the Amount of Gross Deposits in the Chicago Clearing House Banks Movement of Gross Deposits for Correspondence Degree Second month previous . Previous month Same month Following month Second month following 59 66 64 63 59 56 50 53 53 56 + .026 + .136 + .092 + .085 + .026 Here the correspondence is all positive and not very high. The most occurs with the previous month, where in 57 cases out of 100 a movement in the amount of gross deposits is followed by a similar movement in the prices of farm products the next month. To sum up: The maximum degree of correspondence is not high in the comparison of the movement of the prices of farm products in Chicago and the movements of specie and legal tenders and of gross deposits in the Chicago Clearing House banks. The highest correspondence of the movement of the prices of farm products comes with the movement for the previous month of specie and legal tenders and of gross deposits. This fact indicates that what little causal influence is shown runs from the specie and legal tenders and gross deposits to the prices of farm products. MONEY AND SPECULATIVE PRICES IN CHICAGO 37 V. MONEY AND SPECULATIVE PRICES ON THE CHICAGO BOARD OP TRADE Speculative prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, weekly and monthly from 1899 to 1908, next engage our attention. Here is presented for the first time, it is believed, an index number of specu- lative prices. The Chicago market is taken because it is the most important speculative market for these commodities in the United States. The essence of the speculative market is the dealing in futures. The problem is not the same as at is when it is desired to construct an index number for actual prices; in such a case the usual method is to express the various prices as percentages of some base price, usually the average price for some period. Obviously, this method cannot be employed with speculative prices. In a sense, wheat to be delivered at different times in the future is not a single commodity but several commodities with different prices in the market, so that no one base price would be apphcable to all. If statistics were available, an index number might be constructed of the price of wheat some definite time in advance of each date, e.g., an index number showing the variations in the price of wheat to be delivered in three months. But such statistics are not in existence. To solve these difficulties the index number was made with a variable base, in the following manner. The Chicago Board of Trade, in its yearbook, gives the daily high and low prices for the speculative commodities dealt in on the Board of Trade. Six commodities are dealt in through the entire year, namely, wheat, corn, and oats, the prices of which are quoted in terms of bushels; mess pork, quoted in terms of barrels; and lard and short rib sides, quoted at so much per hundredweight. Rye and barley are also traded in, but only for part of the year. The prices of these com- modities are quoted for delivery in various months in the future. The aim in computing the index number was to take the price in the future month in which there was the most trading. It was assumed that the movements in the price of delivery in that month could be taken as typical of the movements of speculative prices of that one commodity, for it is well known that the prices of the various months move in sympathy with each other. The prices for all the months of future deUvery may not move in the same 38 MONEY AND PRICES direction when a harvest intervenes. But if there are two diverse movements, one depending on the expected harvest and the other on the stock in existence, we have as much right to take the one as typical as the other. The following is the account of the future prices which were used for the typical year. From December to April, in the case of the grains, and from January to April, in the case of the pork products, the prices for May delivery were taken. By not taking the price of May wheat in May, and, in general, by not taking the price of any commodity for delivery in the current month, we elimi- nate most if not all of the price changes which are due to corners and also avoid the times when the cash and future prices are the same. From May to August, the prices of all of the commodities for September dehvery were taken. From September to Novem- ber, in the case of the grains, the quotations for December delivery were taken. In the case of the pork products, from September to December the quotations are for January dehvery. In some cases, because of the lack of quotations, it was necessary to depart somewhat from the schedule as given above, but in every case the principle was followed of taking the quotation for some month in advance. With this general scheme in mind, we may now indi- cate in detail the method employed in computing the index numbers. From the daily high and low quotations given in the yearbooks of the Chicago Board of Trade, the weekly high and low prices were obtained. The average of the high and low prices was taken as the price for the week. Then for each week was obtained the percentage which the price of that week was of the price of the preceding week. This is the famihar method of constructing chain index numbers or index numbers with a variable base. When there was a change of the month of future delivery considered, it was necessary to take two quotations for the last week of the month. For example, the index number for the last week in April was computed by comparing the price of May delivery for that week with the price of May delivery for the preceding week; the index number for the first week in May was obtained by comparing the price of September delivery for the first week of May with the price of September delivery for the last week of April. Thus for the last week in April, it was necessary to compute the prices of both MONEY AND SPECULATIVE PRICES IN CHICAGO 39 May and September deliveries. After the index numbers had been computed for each commodity for each week, the arithmetic mean was taken to obtain the index number for speculative prices for the week. It should be clearly understood that the table gives for each week a figure which indicates the change in speculative prices from the week before. No comparisons can be made directly from the table for longer periods. TABLE XXIV Numbers Indicating the Percentage of Change from the Previous Week OF Speculative Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, 1899-1908. The Year Begins with the Week Ending — Week Jan. 7 Jan. 6 Jan. 5 Jan. 4 Jan. lo Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Jan. 6 Jan. 5 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 98.34 101.96 104.85 100.04 99-69 100 . 95 g8.82 100,82 gg.8o 99.67 100.25 103.31 100.39 102.46 100.03 100.11 100,87 99.85 100.20 99 58 99.89 97.94 101 .60 102.68 100.2s 99, 8g IOI.7S 103.41 99.76 99.40 98.67 100.02 100.98 100.98 98,47 101.3s 99.11 99.96 100.49 96.79 99.93 101.58 99 65 99-96 102.12 98.26 102.13 99.54 101.05 101.30 103.71 100.11 101,25 102.26 98.57 100.41 101.51 99.73 100.41 104.73 101.23 100.36 99.90 97.63 98.75 99.98 99.88 100.67 103.67 99.26 9g.6o g8.24 100.63 98.31 100.28 98.61 100. gi 94 .24 100.14 99-49 99. 52 97.71 loi .14 100 . 24 100.41 100.23 95.90 100.76 99-93 99.25 97.81 102.21 lOI .84 100.60 97.42 98.66 100,20 100.31 97.94 100.80 101.37 102.19 98.92 98.74 97.5s 100,14 102. gs 98.6s loi .91 102.45 101 .18 100. OI 100.30 102.30 98,71 100.21 100.41 98.98 104.43 100.59 100. gi 99-39 98.17 101.68 100,42 100.64 98.97 100.79 98.23 99.84 101 .96 96. og 100.33 102. IS 100.68 100.90 99.08 99-74 102.5s 100.81 97.47 97-39 100,4s 99.29 98.63 98.41 102.31 100.59 g8.88 99.71 96-63 g8,84 101 .28 98.38 99.24 101 .01 99.63 99.70 98.97 100.07 99. 57 100. 55 97.11 96.42 98-43 98,80 99.68 98.83 100.56 99.70 102.92 99.83 100.26 100.27 100.92 loi .07 99.17 101.24 102.43 103.52 99.5s 99.00 101.38 98.72 9932 100 . 33 100.39 101,86 loi ,82 100.01 98.27 99. 75 99.40 102. g7 102.20 100.43 100 . 69 99.12 101.00 103.17 100.58 99.93 100. 10 101.43 100.65 IOI.77 g8,62 101.23 lOI . 40 99.85 101 .06 101. ig 102.66 101 ,07 103,89 97.28 100.33 106.84 100.17 loi.og 99. 55 IOI.3S 101.54 99.25 99. 57 99.72 101.91 100.52 102.60 98.17 99-58 102.28 gg.6o loi.ti4 100.12 97.39 100.14 102. 6g 99.92 101.45 99.98 ioo.i6 101.31 loi. SS 100.38 103.32 gg.6o 97-25 99.64 98.82 100.20 99.29 99.11 95 46 100.92 99-49 98.69 100.22 99.37 g8,oo 99.22 97. 95 99.26 104.97 97.50 100.32 100.63 99.36 99-11 100.42 96.90 98.81 97.48 96.94 100.37 101.56 100.00 g7-02 101.58 100. i6 100.42 101.45 •97.87 100.47 100.62 101 . 12 99-85 100.37 100 . 43 97.92 102.29 g6.4o 98.15 101 .26 100.38 98.37 98.55 100. 59 101.00 99.02 102.88 100.86 99-17 100,71 99.62 102.50 99.70 97.90 98.55 102.00 101 .29 98.66 97-88 100.28 102,70 100.81 99. 26 100.87 100.90 100.98 99.43 gg.oo 98.99 102,46 100.03 101.33 100.74 100 . 64 101 .10 101.47 101 .44 98.52 98,86 loi .92 101 .14 102.53 100.70 94-81 99 96 101 .07 101.73 98,68 102.18 100.93 99.58 101 .89 98-33 100 . 68 99-73 101.68 100.60 100.60 101 .og 98.02 101.23 99-07 99 95 99.46 100,62 99.97 99.22 98.77 98.15 101.86 100.30 96.59 101,4s 100,21 103.36 97.66 97.54 100.13 101.83 g8.i6 99.02 99.90 100.43 100. 8g 100.95 99.40 99.88 100.48 101 .08 100 . 88 loi .22 gg.Si 95.58 99.65 100.53 99.98 99.65 99-74 98.7s 100,46 101,86 95 16 99.76 100.34 100.71 99-32 97-30 101,74 99-92 100.07 97. S3 98.82 101.13 101 .17 99-52 99-94 98. gg 99-24 100 , 80 97-97 100.76 100.22 101.53 103.21 97-91 99.50 99-8i 99. 54 95-71 98.95 99 85 104.05 100.71 100.73 100.52 102.24 99.82 g9.26 101.28 100. 12 103.56 100.63 loi .10 g8,8i 101 .90 101.84 104.37 102.37 100. OI 101.68 102.42 101.25 99-57 99-17 102.35 99.34 99-74 99.59 98.64 99.56 101.63 100.64 100.08 100 . 6s 101.41 100.52 100.43 101.2S 101.03 99.94 104.13 100. 2g 100,08 100.56 99.81 Jan. 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 II 12 13 U IS 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 SO 51 52 S3 loi.SS 101.28 98.53 98-73 97-15 98.62 97-92 98.91 102,02 102.86 100.36 101 .64 100.10 102. S4 99-33 99-36 99-34 100. 95 101.31 99.64 101.8s 101.30 100.07 9g.02 102.75 102 .ig 102. og 103 . 2g 101.74 99 38 gg.8i 102,77 99.07 98.76 100.64 102. 35 102.23 100.57 99.62 99.38 97-92 97-84 99.2s 102.00 100.00 100.01 100.79 100.29 100.10 99-82 98.87 100.87 101.14 40 MONEY AND PRICES TABLE XXV Numbers Indicating the Percentage of Change from the Previous Month OF Speculative Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, 1899-1908 Month 1899 igo2 1903 1904 190s 1906 1907 1908 January. . . February . . March . . . . April May June July August . . . September. October. . . November. December. 99.02 95 29 98.94 95.02 loi .09 100.57 95-88 102. 6q 101.59 98.01 102. 14 102 lOI 102 107 94 105 roo 95 99 100 100 100 107 lOI 103 102 lOI lOI 105 104 lOI 97 102, 108. 96 99 102 99 100 103 92 104 106 lOI 104 103 102 100 100.06 103.48 q6. 100. 94. 97- lOI . 107 no 95 93 95 104. 103. 102, 99. 97- 99 lOI 100 99 97 104 lOI 99 99 lOI lOI 102 100, 100 lOI . T03. lOI , 106. 99- 92. 98. 103. lOI . 103. 103 104 95 100 106 99 lOI 102 103 99 94 lOI 100.99 93 76 104.44 102.52 102. 27 103.08 108.48 102.40 103 • 85 96-39 101.03 100.46 From the weekly index numbers a monthly index number was computed by putting the table into continuous form and averaging the index numbers of the four or five weeks which were wholly or for most part within the month and then expressing the figures so obtained as percentages of the figures of the month previous. So here again only the month to month comparison can be made directly from the table. Tables XXIV and XXV show index numbers for speculative prices weekly and monthly. We will first compare the weekly movement of speculative prices with the movements of specie and legal tenders and of gross deposits in the Chicago Clearing House banks, statistics for which TABLE XXVI Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, Weekly, 1899-1908, with the Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in the Chicago Clearing House Banks Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders for Correspondence + Degree Third week previous . . Second week previous. Previous week Same week Following week Second week following Third week following . 265 269 262 252 256 249 257 248 245 253 263 259 265 256 + -033 + .046 + .017 — .021 — .006 — •031 + .002 MONEY AND SPECULATIVE PRICES IN CHICAGO 41 were taken from the publications of the National Monetary Commission.^ On the basis of this table the safest generalization would seem to be that there is no relationship between the movement of specu- lative prices for the series of years considered and the movement of specie and legal tenders. Some cases show a slight positive correspondence and some, a sHght negative correspondence, but there is not enough in either case to justify any statement of tendency. The comparison with the movement of gross deposits comes next. TABLE XXVII Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, Weekly, 1899-1908, with the Movement of Gross Deposits in the Chicago Clearing House Banks Movement of Gross Deposits for Second week previous . Previous week Same week Following week Second week following Correspondence + 248 261 253 265 264 268 256 264 252 252 Degree -•039 + .010 — .021 + .025 + .023 Here again the movement of the two sets of figures seems to be unrelated, for only slight correspondence is shown, and that shown is sometimes positive and sometimes negative. TABLE XXVIII Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, Monthly, 1899-1908, with the Movement of the Amount OF Specie and Legal Tenders in the Chicago Clearing House Banks Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders for Correspondence + j - Degree Second month previous Previous month 55 64 64 63 51 62 54 55 55 66 00000 — .060 + .085 + .076 + .068 Same month Following month Second month following -.128 ' Statistics for the United States, 1867-1909, pp. 141-50. 42 MONEY AND PRICES We will now compare the monthly movement of speculative prices with the movement of specie and legal tenders and with the movement of gross deposits of the Chicago Clearing House banks. The monthly figures for specie and legal tenders and gross deposits were obtained from the weekly figures previously used by taking the arithmetic mean of the figures for the four or five weeks which He wholly or for most part within the month. This comparison shows a small amount of positive correspond- ence, with not much difference between the amounts for the same, the previous, and the following month. The number of cases con- sidered is small and therefore it may be that the negative corre- spondence with the second month previous and the second month following is due to chance. We come now to the comparison with the movement of gross deposits. TABLE XXIX Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, Monthly, 1899-1908, with the Movement of Gross Deposits in the Chicago Clearing House Banks Movement of Gross Deposits for Correspondence + - Degree Previous month Same month 61 69 66 57 5° 52 + •034 -t-.i6o Following month + .119 The correspondence of the movement of speculative prices with the movement of gross deposits for the same month is higher than that of any of the other comparisons we have made for speculative prices. To sum up: We have compared the movement of speculative prices on the Chicago Board of Trade with the movements of specie and legal tenders and of gross deposits in the Clearing House banks of Chicago, using both weekly and monthly averages. Little or no correspondence is shown when the weekly averages are used. Practically we may say that the two weekly movements are unre- lated. SHghtly more correspondence is shown when the monthly averages are used. The greatest correspondence of movement MONEY AND WHOLESALE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES 43 is that of the monthly index number of speculative prices and the average of gross deposits for the same month. In 58 out of 100 cases, the two movements agree in the direction of their changes. This maximum correspondence is lower than that obtained in the comparisons involving the monthly index numbers of bond prices and of stock prices. The correspondence is higher when the monthly movement of speculative prices is compared with the movement of gross deposits for the following month than when it is compared with the movement of gross deposits for the preceding month. We conclude, therefore, that the amount of gross deposits depends upon speculative prices more than speculative prices depend upon the amount of gross deposits. VI. MONEY AND WHOLESALE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES The last price movement to be considered is that of wholesale prices of commodities in the United States. We wish to discover whether there is any relationship between this movement and the movement of the total money in circulation or of per capita circu- lation. For the period from 1900 to 191 1, the Bureau of Labor has computed monthly index numbers of wholesale prices.^ With this movement, we may compare the movement of total circulation for each month. The monthly figures for the amount of money in circulation previously used have been brought down through 191 1 by obtaining the estimates of the total amount of money in circula- tion for the separate months from the Monthly Summary of Com- merce and Finance. TABLE XXX Correspondence of the Movement of Wholesale Prices in the United States, Monthly, 1900-1911, with the Movement of the Total Amount OF Money in Circulation in the United States Movement of Total Circiilation for Correspondence + - Degree Second month previous Previous month 80 83 76 73 Si 50 55 58 10 ID 12 II + .189 + •231 + •147 + .106 Same month Following month Bulletin of the Bureau of Labor, No. 99 (March, 1912), 523. 44 MONEY AND PRICES A fair degree of correspondence is shown throughout; the greatest is in the comparison with the money in circulation for the previous month. The correspondence shown may be expressed by the statement that, in the period studied, in about 62 out of 100 cases a movement in total circulation is followed by a similar movement in wholesale prices the following month. We next make the comparison with wholesale prices yearly from 1867 to 191 1.' The Aldrich Report index numbers of whole- sale prices are used for the period 1867-1890,^ and those of the Bureau of Labor for the period 1890-1911.3 The figures for total and per capita circulation are the same as those used before, with the figures for the years 1910 and 191 1 added from the Statistical Abstracts Since specie payments were not resumed until 1879, the comparison is made in two forms, from 1867 to 191 1 and from 1879 to 191 1. Thus if desired, the period before the resumption of specie payments need not be considered. Both total circulation and per capita circulation are used in the comparison. TABLE XXXI Correspondence of the Movement of Wholesale Prices in the United States Yearly, 1867-1911, and 1879-1911, with the Movement of the Per Capita Circuxation of Money in the United States Movement of Per Capita Circulation for 1867-1911 Correspondence + - Degree 1879-1911 Correspondence + - Degree Second year previous Previous year Same year Following year — .024 + .279 + .250 + .047 IS 14 14 + •033 + .194 + .219 + .065 A fair amount of correspondence is shown. The longer period shows more than the shorter, and there is a shifting of the maximum from the comparison with the previous year in the long period to the comparison with the same year in the short period. ' Cf. Hardy, "The Quantity of Money and Prices, 1860-1891," Journal of Political Economy, III (March, 1895), i45- ' Laughlin, Principles of Money, p. 215. 3 Bulletin of the Bureau of Labor, No. 99 (March, 1912), 523. ^Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1911, p. 580, MONEY AND WHOLESALE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES 45 TABLE XXXII Correspondence of the Movement of Wholesale Prices in the United States, Yearly, 1867-1911, and 1879-1911, with the Movement of the Total Circulation of Money in the United States Movement of Total Circulation for 1867-1911 Correspondence + — o Degree 1879-1911 Correspondence + - Degree Previous year Same year Following year Second year following + .068 + •093 + .024 17 o + .156 + •194 + .167 This result is different from that in the comparison with per capita circulation — here the shorter period shows higher correspond- ence than the longer period. However, the correspondence is not so high as in the comparison with per capita circulation. The greatest correspondence for both the longer and the shorter periods is found in the comparison with the following year. These results throw an interesting light on Irving Fisher's proposal for a "compensated dollar." Suppose that the scheme were in operation and that the value of the dollar had become more or less than it should be. Then the amount of bullion necessary to procure a dollar at the mint or that would be given for a dollar at the mint would be lessened or increased. The effect of this change would be to increase or decrease the amount of money in circulation. Now the point is that prices would change in the direction desired in only 62 cases out of 100, if we may generalize from our past experience and if we take the greatest degree of cor- respondence shown in any of the present calculations involving the total circulation of money and wholesale commodity prices. In the other 38 cases out of the 100, a movement in the opposite direction from the one desired would take place. With such hmited correspondence it would seem unwise to attempt to regu- late the price level by the proposed means. If the price movement were long continued in one direction, perhaps other effects than those working directly through changes in the volume of money would be observable. At any rate a possibly new factor would be introduced. 46 MONEY AND PRICES We shall next test by the method of the Degree of Correspond- ence two attempts which have been made to prove the Quantity Theory of Money statistically. Kemmerer has given in Book II of his Money and Credit Instruments in Their Relation to General Prices a statistical proof of the Quantity Theory of Money in the form in which he supports it. His figures cover the period from 1879 to 1908. Kemmerer starts with the equation of exchange in . . _, MR-\-CRc . , . , the form Fs= „„ . ,^ „ , in which i\l-rL-\-rs c-ti'c Ps = the average price of all goods exchanged for money or checks M = the quantity of money in circulation R = the number of times the money is turned over N = the number of commodities exchanged by money E = the number of times they are exchanged C = the amount of checks Re — the number of times the checks are turned over Nc = the number of commodities exchanged by checks Ec = the number of times they are exchanged. Values are found for the various terms on the right-hand side of the equation. In general, relative not absolute values are com- puted. The value of Ps is calculated from these figures and is called "relative circulation." The proof of the Quantity Theory of Money comes in comparing the figures for "relative circulation" with the index numbers obtained from actual prices. We shall test the closeness of the agreement between "relative circulation" and the index numbers of actual prices by the method of the Degree of Correspondence for both the direction and the amount of the change. The two series should move together exactly in order to prove that the theory holds in every case. Table XXXIII gives the two series of figures and the correspondence of the two series for the various years of the period and for the period as a whole. For direction the figures show a high degree of correspondence, + .48. This is not perfect correspondence but indicates that the two series move together in the proportion of 74 out of 100 cases. However, when the amount as well as the direction of the change is considered, the correspondence is much less, only -f- . 20. MONEY AND WHOLESALE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES 47 TABLE XXXIII Correspondence of the Movement of Kemmerer's Index Numbers for Relative Circulation and General Prices Year 1879 5o 5i 52 53 h 3s 36 37 38 39 ?o ?i ?2 1893 [894 t895 [896 1897 [898 1899 1900. . . . 1901 .... [902. . . . Relative ClRCtTLATION 99 107 107 123 112 103 84 83 102 103 104 108 105 99 119 102 104 103 96 113 124 125 136 136 General Prices lOS 106 118 109 100 91 89 90 92 93 90 94 90 90 82 80 77 74 80 80 92 92 99 Correspondence •37 •75 •85 .96 •49 •55 ■OS •45 .91 •75 .62 .27 •57 .46 •OS .64 •83 .27 48 MONEY AND PRICES TABLE XXXlll—ConlimKd Relative Circulation General Prices Correspondence + - 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 131 119 134 138 133 132 100 96 lOI 108 112 103 ■43 •41 •43 . 10 ■97 +9-47 -3-55 For direction +ig— s+(sXo) = +i4-5-29 = + ^48, Degree of Correspondence. For direction and amount +9.47— 3.55 + (sXo) = +5.92-;- 29 = + .20, Degree of Correspondence. Irving Fisher in chap, xii of his Purchasing Power of Money has attempted the same sort of a statistical proof of the Quantity- Theory of Money for the years 1 896-1 909. The period covered is not so well chosen as that covered by Kemmerer's figures, since it is shorter and includes only a period of generally rising prices. But in some of the details of the computation, Fisher has made a great advance over Kemmerer. The test of the Quantity Theory comes in comparing the index numbers obtained directly from actual prices with the results reached by solving the equation of exchange in the form used by Fisher for the price level. The Degree of Correspondence has been computed for these figures' and the table is repeated here. The table is constructed in the same manner as the preceding one. It gives the two series of numbers to be compared and the correspondence shown in the direction and the amount of movement. For direction the correspondence is + .31 and for direction and amount it is +.23. It will be noted that the correspondence for direction only is less than that in Kemmerer's proof, being only about two-thirds as great. For direction and amount of movement, the correspondence in Fisher's proof is slightly greater than that ' Magee, "The Degree of Correspondence between Two Series of Index Numbers," Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Association, XIII (June, 1912), 181. MONEY AND WHOLESALE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES 49 TABLE XXXIV CORSESPONDENCE OF THE MOVEMENT OF FiSHER'S InDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES Obtained Directly and Indirectly Year Directly Indirectly Correspondence + - 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 63 64 66 74 80 84 89 87 85 91 97 97 92 100 54 52 56 69 68 76 82 75 81 83 90 86 87 100 • 41 •52 •43 •75 .26 •35 .78 •58 •43 .18 .29 •23 +4 -08 -I-I3 +4.08— 1.13+0=2. 9S -5- i3 = + ^23i Degree of Correspondence, considering amount and direction of change. +8— 4+0=4-!- 13 = + . 31, Degree of Correspondence, considering only the direction of the change. of Kemmerer's. In neither case is much correspondence shown for direction and amount of movement; our inference is, then, that these two attempted proofs of the Quantity Theory of Money are far from being conclusive. The import of these studies in the relation of the movement of the wholesale prices of commodities to the movement of money in circulation is clear. We may state it in alternative ways. Using tendency as the statement of what actually happens, we may say that the tendency of money and prices to move in the same direction shows itself in the proportion of from 55 to 64 out of 100 50 MONEY AND PRICES cases. Or using tendency in the sense of what will happen if not prevented, we may say that the tendency of prices to vary with the quantity of money is counteracted in from 36 to 45 out of 100 cases. If we conclude that the chief point of contention concerning the Quantity Theory of Money is the question of the proportionaHty of the change, then the opponents of the theory have the better of the argument so far as we can judge from these statistics. In their statistical proofs of the Quantity Theory of Money, Kemmerer and Fisher have attempted to make allowance not only for the money, but also for the factors in the equation of exchange other than money. This attempt gives for Kemmerer's proof 74 cases out of 100 where the movements agree in direction, as com- pared with 64 cases of agreement out of 100 when allowance was not made for the other factors. However, Fisher's figures with such allowance do not show more correspondence for direction than the crude figures do. In both of the proofs, the correspondence for direction and amount of change is less than the correspondence for the direction of the change only. Since the degree of correspond- ence between the movement of the wholesale prices of commodities and the amount of money in circulation was not computed for both the direction and the amount of the change, we cannot compare the crude figures for direction and amount of change with the results obtained in the proofs of Fisher and Kemmerer. On the question of whether the amount of money adjusts itself to the wholesale prices or whether wholesale prices adjust them- selves to the amount of money, we find that in the case of the com- parison of the movement of the wholesale prices of commodities with the yearly averages of the per capita circulation of money and the monthly averages of the total circulation of money, the price changes follow the changes in the amounts of money more frequently than the reverse. Thus these figures support Fisher's view that the price level is the passive element in the equation of exchange. On the other hand, the comparison of the movement of the whole- sale prices of commodities with the yearly averages for total cir- culation of money indicates that changes in the amounts of money follow price changes more frequently than the reverse, thus sup- porting LaughUn's view. As was suggested before, the case is not exactly a test of Laughlin's contention, since his statement is that SUMMARY 51 the volume of the medium of exchange adjusts itself to the need for it. Thus, in so far as the money in circulation includes money used as a standard, the figures do not give us an exact test of Laughlin's statement. VII. SUMMARY By way of summary a tabulation is presented of the highest degrees of correspondence which were shown in the various com- parisons which have been made. Where there is considerable of both positive and negative correspondence, the maximum of each kind is given. I. Bond Price Movement 1. Weekly a) + . 199 with movement of specie and legal tenders for previous week b) + . 212 with movement of net deposits for same week 2. Monthly a) + . 207 with movement of specie and legal tenders for same month ^) +-3S7 with movement of net deposits for same month c) + . 159 with movement of total circulation for previous month — . 066 with movement of total circulation for following month 3. Yearly a) + . 500 with movement of specie and legal tenders for same year — . 500 with movement of specie and legal tenders for following year b) +.611 with movement of net deposits for the same year — . 278 with movement of net deposits for following year c) -\- . 500 with movement of per capita and total circulation for same year II. Stock Price Movement 1. Monthly (Mitchell) c) + . 130 with movement of specie and legal tenders for following month — . 084 with movement of specie and legal tenders for second month following b) + . 181 with movement of net deposits for following month c) +.075 with movement of total circulation for following month 2. Yearly (Mitchell) a) + . 474 with movement of specie and legal tenders for previous year — .III with movement of specie and legal tenders for following year b) + . 684 with movement of net deposits for previous year — . 333 with movement of net deposits for following year c) + . 263 with movement of total circulation for previous year and for same year — . 158 with movement of total circulation for second year previous d) + . 263 with movement of per capita circulation for same year and for previous year — . 053 with movement of per capita circulation for following year and for second year previous 52 MONEY AND PRICES 3. Yearly (Commons and Stone) a) + . 545 with movement of total circulation for following year — .158 with movement of total circulation for third year previous b) +.524 with movement of per capita circulation for second year following — . 100 with movement of per capita circulation for second year previous III. Farm Products Price Movement a) — . 136 with movement of specie and legal tenders for following month + .119 with movement of specie and legal tenders for previous month b) +. 136 with movement of gross deposits for previous month IV. Speculative Price Movement 1. Weekly a) -\- . 046 with movement of specie and legal tenders for second week previous — .021 with movement of specie and legal tenders for same week b) —.039 with movement of gross deposits for second week previous + .025 with movement of gross deposits for following week 2. Monthly o) — . 128 with movement of specie and legal tenders for second month following + . 085 with movement of specie and legal tenders for previous month b) +.160 with movement of gross deposits for same month V. Wholesale Price Movement 1. Monthly o) +.231 with movement of total circulation for previous month 2. Yearly 1867-1911 a) +. 279 with movement of per capita circulation for previous year b) + . 093 with movement of total circulation for following year 3. Yearly 1879-1911 a) + . 219 with movement of per capita circulation for same year b) +.194 with movement of total circulation for following year VI. Tests of Statistical Proofs of the Quantity Theory of Money 1. Kemmerer's a) + . 48 for direction of movement b) + . 20 for direction and amount of movement 2. Fisher's a) +.31 for direction of movement b) + . 23 for direction and amount of movement Since we have pointed out at the close of each section the sig- nificance of the figures given, there remains merely the task of attempting to draw some general conclusions, although we recog- nize that it is rather dangerous to generalize from statements that SUMMARY 53 are not of equal value. The summary just given shows that, in general, positive correspondence is more common than negative. The cases of negative correspondence are probably due to some marked periodicity in one or the other set of figures. The highest degree of correspondence is +.684, that of the movement of Mitchell's yearly stock prices with the movement of net deposits in the New York Clearing House banks for the previous year. The lowest amount of positive correspondence which is the maximum for any of the comparisons is + .025, that of the movement of the weekly speculative prices on the Chicago Board of Trade with the movement of gross deposits in the Clearing House banks of Chicago for the following week. As regards frequency, the maximum corre- spondence comes when the comparison is made between the price movement and a movement of money in banks or in circulation or deposits in banks for a previous period, 1 2 times ; for the same period, II times; and for a following period, 8 times. In two instances, two comparisons equally show the highest correspondence, so in sum- marizing each of the two is credited with the maximum. We are interested in the relative amounts of correspondence shown when the price movement is compared with the movement of money or deposits in banks or money in circulation for preceding and for following weeks, months, or years (even though the maxi- mum correspondence may be shown when the price movement is compared with the movement of money or deposits for the same week, month, or year). In 18 cases more correspondence is shown when the price movement is compared with the movement of money and deposits for a preceding year, month, or week than is shown when the comparison is made with a following year, month, or week. In 1 1 cases the reverse is true. It may be of interest to indicate how the instances of these two types are distributed among the investigations using weekly, monthly, and yearly averages and also among the investigations concerned with specie and legal tenders in banks, bank deposits, and total and per capita circula- tion of money. Of the cases where more correspondence is shown when the price movement is compared with the movement of money and deposits for a preceding than for a following unit of time, instances appear in investigations involving weekly averages 2 times, monthly averages 6 times, and yearly averages 10 times. 54 MONEY AND PRICES Instances of the opposite kind are found in investigations involving weekly averages 2 times, monthly averages 5 times, and yearly averages 4 times. Of the cases where more correspondence is shown when the price movement is compared with the movement of money and deposits for a preceding than for a following unit of time, instances occur in investigations involving specie and legal tenders in banks 7 times, bank deposits 3 times, total circulation of money 4 times, and per capita circulation of money 4 times. Instances of the opposite kind are found in investigations involving specie and legal tenders in banks once, bank deposits 5 times, total circulation of money 4 times, and per capita circulation of money once. The following conclusions may be drawn from the individual studies and this summary. They refer, of course, only to the periods and the price movements studied. First: The relation of price changes to changes in the amount of money in circulation and in banks and in the amount of deposits in banks varies with different groups of commodities. Moreover, in any particular group of commodities, the relation may be differ- ent when weekly, monthly, and yearly averages are considered. Second: In no case was complete correspondence found between a price movement and the movement of money or deposits in banks or of money in circulation. Third: In general, the correspondence is greater between price movements and the movement of money or deposits in banks or of money in circulation when the averages used cover longer periods than when they cover shorter periods. Fourth: Some of the price movements in local markets show more correspondence with the movement of money and deposits in the local banks than is shown in the comparison of general prices throughout the country with the money in circulation in the whole country. Fifth: The causal influence runs from money in circulation or in banks to prices more frequently than the reverse. On the other hand, the causal influence runs from prices to bank deposits more frequently than the reverse. APPENDIX In the appendix are given the full correspondence tables from which the summary tables in the text were derived. In these, + = positive correspondence, — = negative correspondence, and o = no correspond- ence. "Degree of Correspondence" in every case refers merely to the direction of the movement. In general, the material is presented in the order in which it was used. 56 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tentjers in New York Clearing House Banks for Third Week Previous 00 00 CO 00 ■^ + + + + + + "^ + + + + + + — — + + + — + — + — — + + + — + + — + — + — + + — — + + + — + + + + + + — — + + + + + + — — — + + + + + — + — + — + + + — + — — + — — — + + + + — — + + + — + — + — — — + + — — ~r + — -|- — + — + + — — — — + — + + + + — + — — + + + + — + + — — — + — — — — + — — + + + — — — + — + — H- + — + — + + + — — + + + + + + + — + + + — — + + — + — — + — + + + — + — + — + + — — + + + + + + — — — + — — — + + — — + + + — — + + + — + + + — — + — + — + — + — + — + + + — + + + — + + — — — — — — — + + — + + + _i_ — — + + — — — + — — — + — + + + + + + — + + — — + — + — + + — + — + + — + + — — + + + + — — + + + + — — + — + — — — — — — + — + — — + — — — — + — — — — — + + + — + + + + + + + — + + + — + — — + — — — — + + + + + — + — — + — J_ + — + — + + — — + + — — — + + + + + + + + + — — — + J- — — + + + + + + + — + + — — + — — — — — + — + — — — — + + + — — + + + + — + — + + + + — + — — — — — + + — — — + + + + + + + + + + + + + — — + + — — + + + + — — + — — — — -l- — + — + — — — + — + + — — + + + + + — + — + — — + — — — + + — + + — + — + — — + + — — — + — — — — — + — — + _{- — — — — + + — + + + — + — — — — — + — + — + + + + — + + + + + — — — + + — + + + + + + + + + — + + — + + + + + — + + + + + — + — + + + — + + + — + — + — — — — + + + + + + + + — + — — + + + — — + + + — + + + + — — — + — + + + — + + — — — + — — + + — + — — + + — — + + — — + + + — + + + + — — + — + — + + + — + — — + + — — — + + — + + — — + — + + + — — + + + — — — — + — + + — — — — + + + + + — — + — + + + + — + — — — — — — + — — + + + — + — + + + + + + + + — + — — — — — — — — — + — — + + + + + — + — — J- — — + + + — + — — — + — + — + — — + + — — + — — + + + — + + — — — + — — + — + — + — — — — + + — — — — Positive correspondences 466 Negative correspondences 389 Zero correspondences 134 Degree of Correspondence +078 APPENDIX 57 Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Second Week Previous M + IH + + _ _ + _ + + M + _ _ + o + + + + + + — — + + + + o — — — — + — o + + — + + — + + + — + + — — — + + — — + + + + o + — — + + + + + + — — — — o + O + + + o — + — + — + o + + — + — — + — — — + + — + — — + + + — + — + — — — o — — + — + + + + o — + o + — — + + — + + + + — o + + + + — — o — + + o + + + + + — — + + + — — o — o + o — + + + — — — + + o + — + — — — o + o — o + + — + + o + + + — + — + o o + — + + + — o + — — + — + + + o — — — o — + + + — o + — — + + + + + — — o o + — + + + — — + + + + — — o + — — + + — + o — — + + — — — o o + + — — + + o — o + + + 4- — — + — + — — — + — — + — + — + + o + — o + — — + + + — + — — — o + — — + + — — o — + + — — + — o o o + o o — o + + + + o — + + — + + — — + + + + + — o o + — — — — + + o — — o — — + o — + + + — — — + + + + + + — — + — o + + + + o + o — + + + + + + — o — — + + — — — — — — — — — — + + + + + o — + o o — — — — + + o + — + + + — + o o + + + — + + — o + + — — + + — + o + — + o o + o o + + + + + — + + — + + + — + — — — o + + + — — o + — — + + + — — + o o + + — + o + + + — — + + + + — + o o — — — o + o + + o + + — + — + — + + — o + — — — o + — + — + — + — — + — — + — o — + — + — — + — + — + — o — — + o — o + + — o — — + + — — + o — — + — — — — + — — — + — — — + + — + + + + — — + + — + — + — — + o + + + + — + + o — + o + + — + + + + — + + — o — o + + + + + — + + + + — + — o + — + — + + — o + + + — — + — + — — + + + + o + — — o + + + — + — — + + + + + o + o + + + — + o + o + — — o — + + o + + + + + + + o — o — — — — — + + — + + + — — + o o + — + — — — o + o — + + + — + — — — + + + — o o + + + + — — o + o + + + o o — + — — + + + + + — — — — — + — — + + — + — + — o + o — — — + _L + o + o + + + — + + o — + + — + + + + + + — _1- o — + + + — + + — + + + — — o — o — — — + + + — — + o + — — + + — — + — + + + + — + — — + — + — + — _[- H- — + o — — — — + — + + + — — + o + + + o + — — + — — — — + + + — + + — — — + — + — o o o — + + + — + + — o — — o o + — o + + — + + — + + + — — — + + — + — — — o o — o — + — Positive correspondences 481 Negative correspondences 373 Zero correspondences 136 Degree of Correspondence + • 109 58 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Previous Week I. ■^ + + + + + _ + + + + + + + *^ + + 2. '■ + + + + — — — + + + — — + — + — + 3- ■ + — + + — + + + — + + — — — + + + + + 4- ■ + + + + — — + + + + + + — — — — + 5- + + + + + — + — + + + — + — — + 6. — + + — + — + + — + + + — — + — + + — 7- — + + + + + + — — + — — — + + + 8. . + + — + — — — + + -r + + — + + + 9- . + + + — + + + + — + + + + + + + — 10. . — — — + + + + + — — — — + + + + II . . — + + + + + — + — + + + — + + — 12. — + + + — + + — — — — — — — + + 13- — — — + + + + + — — + + + — + 14- — + — + + — — + + + + + — + + + — + 15- — — — + + + + — + + + + + + + 16. — — — + — + + + — + — + + + + — — + 17- . + + — — + + + — + — + — + — — + + 18. — + + + + — — + — + + + 19. + — — + + + — — — + + + — + + + 20. — + + — + — — — + + + — + + + + 21 . — — — — + + + + + + 4- — + + + + — + 22. — — + + — + + + — + + — — + — + 23- . — + — + — — — + + — + + + + — — 24- — + — + — + + + + + — + — + + + 25- . + + + + — + + + — + — — + + 26. — + + — + + + — + + + — + — — — 27. — — + — + — — + — + — + — + + + + 28. . + + + — + + + — + — + + + + — + 29 — + + — + — — + — — — + + — — 30 ■ . + — — — + — + — — — — — — — — + 31 . + + + + + + + — — + — — — + + — + 32- — — — — — + — + + — + — — + + + + 33 ■ . + — — + — — — + — + — + + + — — + + — 34- . + — + + + — — + + + + + — — + + 35- . + — + + — — — + + + + — + + + — 36. . — + + + — — — + + — + + + — — + + + 37- . + — + — + + — + + + — + — — + + — 38. . — + — — + + — + + + + + + — — + 39- + — — — + + + + — + + + + + 40, — — — — — + + — + + + — + + + + + 41- . + + — — — + + + — + + + — — — + — 42. . + + — + + + + + + — + + — 43- . — + + + — — — + — — — + + — + — + 44- . + — + + — + — + + — + + + + + + + 45- — + + — — + — — + — — — + + + + — 46. . + — + — + + — + — — + — — + + + — 47- . + + + + — — + + + — + + + + + + + + 48. . + + — + — — — + + — + + + — + + — + 49- . + + — — — + + + + — + + — + + + + SO- . + + + + + + — + + + — + — + + — 51- . + + + — + — + — + + — — — — + 52. . + + — — + + + — + + + — + — + — 53- • — — — Positive correspondences 527 Negative correspondences 330 Zero correspondences 134 Degree of Correspondence + • lOO APPENDIX 59 Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Same Week i) oo\ooO'0>oioo>ooo oo oo ooo "^ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + o + + + + + — — — + + + o — — + — + + o + + — + + — + + + — + + — — — + + + + + + + + o + + — + + + + + + — — — — o + o — — — o + + + + — + o + — + — + + + + + — — — — + + + + + + + + + — + + + o — — + + + — — — o + — o + + — + + + + + — + + o — — + — + — + + — — o + — + + + — + + + — — + o + o + o — + + — — — — + + o + + + — — + — + o — o + + + — — o + + + — — — + o o + + + — + + o + + + + — + o — o — — — o + — — — o — + — + + + + + — + o o + + + — — + + + — — — — — + — + + + + — — o + — + — — + — o o — — — + + + o + o — — + + + + — + — + + + — + — — + + + — — o + + o + + — + + + — + — + — o + — + + + o + o — + + — + — + o o o 4- o o + o + — + + o + + — — + + + + — + — — + o + + + — + — — — o + — o + + + o + — + — + — — + + — + + + + + — — o — — — — o + o + + + — + + — — o + — — + — — + — — + + — + + + + — — — o — + o o + — — — — + o — — + + + + — o o + — + + — — — o + — o — + + — + o — — + o o + o o + + + + + — — + — — + + + + — — — o + — — — — — + — + + + + + + + o o + — — — o + — — — + — — + — + — o o — + + o — o — + o — + — + + — + — + o o — + + + o + + + + — — — — — — — + — o + — + — + + — + — + + — o + + + — + o + + — o — — — + — — — o — + — — + + + + + — — — + + — — — + — — + — — — + + — + — + + — + o o + — — — + — o — + o + — — + + — + — — + + o — o — — + + + — + + + + — + — + + — — + + — — o + + — + — + — + + + + + + — o + — — o — + — + + — — — + — + — o + o + + + — — o + o + — — o — + + o + + — — + + — o — o + + — — + + + — + + + — — — o o — + + + + — o + o + — — + — + + — + — + + — o o o + — — + + o + o — — o o o — — + — + — + + — + — + — + + + — + — + + + — + — + o — + + — + + o + + — — + + — + o + + — — — + — + — — + + o + + + — — — — — — + + + + o + o + — — + — + + — + o + + + — + + + — + — — + — + + + + + — + + — — + + — + o — + — — — + + + + + — — o + — + o — + + + — + + + — — + + + — — — + + + — + o o o + — + — + + + — o + — o o — + o + + + — — — + + + + — — + + + + + + + o o + o — + — — — o + Positive correspondences 495 Negative correspondences 362 Zero correspondences 134 Degree of Correspondence + . 134 6o MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Following Week g- o> o o> 00 8 o o •t o o o "§ "2 00 00 CO 00 00 CO oo oo Oi & o> o> o o o> o o> + + + + + + + + + + + + + + o + + + + + + + — — — + + + O — — + — + + o + + — + + — — + + — + + — — — + + + + + + — — O + + — — + + + + + + + + + o + o — + — O + + + — — + o — J_ + — + + — + + + — — — — — + + — — + — — — + + + o — — + — + — — — O + + + + + + + + — + + — + + O — + + — + — o + — + o + — + + + — + + + — — + o — o + o + + + — + + + — + o + + — — — + — + o + o + — + + — O + + + O — + + o o — — + — — — o + — + + — + + — o + — + o + — + — — o — + + — + + + — — + o o — — + — — + + + + + + + + — + — + + — — + o — — + + + + — o o ~ — — + + — o + o — — + + + — — — — + + + — + — — + + + — + o + o o — — — + + — + — — — — o — — + — + + + o — — + + — + — o o o + o o — o + + + + o + + — — + + — + — — — — — — o + — + — + — + — O + — o — — — o — — — — — + + + — + + — + + — + o + + — — o — o + + — + + + — + o — + — — — + + — + + + — + — + + — — — o — + o o + + + + — + o o + + + + + — o o + — + + — + + o + + — + — + — — o — + + o o + o o + — + — + + + — — + + — + + + + — o — + + — — + — — + — — — + — + o o — — + — o — — — — + — + + — — — o + — + — o + o + — o + — — + + — + — + + o — + — + o _{_ + — + — + — — — + + — — + o + + + — -t- + — + — — — + o + + + — + o + + — o + + + + + — — o + + + — + + + + + — — — — — — O — — + + + — + — + + — — — + + — — o + + — — + + + o — + o + + — _1_ + — — — — + + o — o — — + + + + + -U 4- + — + + + + — — + + — — o — + — — + — — + + + — + — o + — — o — — — + + — — + — + — o + o — + + + — o + o — — — o — + + O + + — + — + + o — o + + — — — + — + — + + — — + o o + + + + + o o + o + — + + — — — o + + — — + o o — + — — — + o + o + — — o o — + + + — + + — — + + — — — — + — — + + + — + — — + o — — — — + + o — + — — + + — o — + + — + + + — + + + + o + — + + + — — — — — + + + o + o — + — — — + + + o + — + — + + + — + + — + + — — + + + + + + + — — 4- + — o — + — — — + — + + — + o + — + o — + + + — — — + — — + -r + + — — + + — + + o o o + — + — + + — — o + — o o — + o + + + + — — + + + + — — — + + + + + + o o + o + + + — o + 23- 24. 25- 26. 27. 28. 29. 30- 31- 3: 33- 34- 35- 36. 37- 38. 39- 40. 41 42. 43- 44- 45- 46. 47- 48. 49- SC- SI S2. 53- Positive correspondences 487 Negative correspondences 372 Zero correspondences 132 Degree of Correspondence +.116 APPENDIX 6l Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Second Week Following *^ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + o + + + + + + + — + — + + + o — — + — + + o + + + — — — — + — — + + — — + — — — — + — — + o — + — — — + + + — — + + + o — o — — — o + — — — — — o — — — — + + — + + + — + — — — + — — + o — — + + + — o — — + — + — + — o + + o + + — + + — + + — + + o — + + — + + o + + — o + — — — — + + + + — + + o — o + o — — + + + — + — + o + o — + — + — — o + o — + + + + o + + + — — — — o o + — + + — — o + — — — — + + + o + — — o — — + — — o — — — + — — — + + + o o — + — + — + — — + + + + + — + — + — — — + o — — + + — + + o o — — — + + — o + o — + + + o — + + — + + — + — — + + + — — + o + — o + — + + — + — + + — + o — + — — + — + o — — + + — + — o o o — o o — o + + — + o + + + — + + — — + + + + + — o + + + + + — + — o — — o — + — o + — — — + + + + — + + + — — — + — o — + + — o + o + + — — + + — + o + + — — — + — + — + + + o + + + — — — o — + o o + + — — — + o — — — + + — — o o + — + + — — + o + — — — + — — + o + + + o o + o o — + + — — — + — + — — — — + — — + o + + — + — + — — + + — — — — + + o — + + + o + + — + — — + + — — — o o — + — o + o + — o + — + + + — — + + — o + + + + o + + — + — — + + — + + — — + o + + + — — — + + + — — + o + — + — + o + + — o + — — + o — + o — + + + + + + + — — — — — + — + — — + — + + + — + + — + — + + — + o + + — + + + + o — + o — + — + + — — + — + + o — o — — _l_ — + + — + + + + + + -h — — — — + — — o — — — — — + — — + + + — + — o — — — o — + — — — — — + + — + — o + o + — + — + o + o — — — o — — — o + + — + + — + o — o + + o — — — — + + + + + + o o o — — — + + + o + o — — + + + + — — + + — + + o o + + + — — — o + o , — — — o o — + — — + + + — — — — — — — — — — — + + + — — — + + o — + — + — — o — + — — — + + + o — + + + + + + — + + — — o — — + + + — — — + — + + + o + o + + — + + — + — + o + — — — — + — + — + — + + — — — — + + + — — — — + + — o — + — + + + — — + + — — o + — + o + + + + + — — + — — + — + — — — — + — + — o o o — — + — + + — — o — — o o — + o + + + + + — — + + + — — — + + + + + + o o + o — + + — — o + Positive correspondences 432 Negative correspondences 40s Zero correspondences 134 Degree of Correspondence +047 62 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for Second Week Previous I. *^ + + + ^ + + + _ _ M + M + + 1 2. + + + — + + + + + — — + — + — — 3- ' 4- — + + — + — + — + + — — — + + + + — 4- . + + + + — + + + + + + + — — — — + 5- . + + + — + — + — + + + — + — — + 6. — — — + + — — + — + + + — + — + — — — 7- + + — — + + — + — + — + + — — — 8. — — + + — + + — + — — — + — + + 9- . + + — — — + — + — — + — — + + + lO. — — + + + + — + + + + + + + + + II . — + — + + + + + — + — — + + — 12. + — — + — + — + — — — — — + + — 13 . + — + + + — + — — — + — + + + — 14- . — — — — + — — + — — — + + + + — + + 15- . + + — + + + + — + — — + + + + 16. + + — — — — + — — + — — + + + + 17- . — + — — + + + + — — — + + — + + + 18. . + + — + + — — — + + — + 19. . — + + — + + — — + — — + + + — — + 20. . + + — — — — + + + — — — — — — + 21. + — — + + + + — + + — — — + + 22. ' + + — + + — — + + — — — + — — — — 23- . + + — + — — + + + — — — + — — + 24. . + — + + + — + + — — + — + + — + 25- . + + + + + — — + + + — + + + + 26. — — + + — + + + + — — — — + — — — 27. . + + + — — + + — — — + + — — + + + 28. . — — + + — + + + — + — — — — + 29. + — + — + + + — + + + + — + + 30 . — — + — — — + — — — + + — — + + + 31- . + + + + + + — + — + + + — + + — + 32- . + — — — + + + + + — — + — — — — + 33- . — — — + — + — — + — + + — — + — — — — 34- . + + + — — + — — — — — + — + + 35- . + — + — + + — + — — — + + — + + — 36. . + — + + + + — — + + + — + + — — + + 37- . + — + — — — — — + + + 4- + — + + + + 38. . + — — + + — + — + — + — — + — 39- — — — — — + + — + + + — + — 40. . — — — — — + + — — + + + — + + — + 41- . — — — — — + + + — + + — — — + + — 42. + + — + — — + + + + — + — 43- — + + + + + + + + — — — + — — + — + + 44- . + — — + + — — + + + — — + — — + + 45- . + + + — + — + + + — + — + — + + + 46. . + + + — — — — + + — — — — — + — — 47- — + + — + + + + — + — + + + + — — — 48. . + + — + — — — + + + + — — — — — + + 49 . + + + — — + + — + + + — — — — — + SO- . + + — + + — — — + — + — + — + + 51- — + + — — — + — + — — + + + + 52. . — + — — + — + — + — — — — + — — SI- . — — Positive correspondences 460 Negative correspondences 401 Zero correspondences 129 Degree of Correspondence +.060 APPENDIX 63 Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for Previous Week •^ + + + + "^ M + + + '~* + + + + _ + M + + + + — — + + + + — — + — + + — + — + + — + — + — + + — — — + + + + + + + + + — — + + + + + + — — — — + + + + + — + + — + + + — + — — + — — — + + — + — — + + + — + — + — — — + + + + + + + + — + — — + + + + + + + + — + — + + — — — — + + + + + — — + + + + — — — + — + + — — — + + — + — + + + — — + — + + — + + + + + + + — + + + + + + — — + — + — — + + — — — — — — + + + + + + + + + — + — + + + + + + — — — — + — — + — + + — + + + + — + — + — + + + + — + + — + + + + — — — + — + + + + — — + — + + — + + — + — — + + + + — — — + + — — + + + + + + + — — — — + — + + + — — + + + + + — — + + + — + — + + — — — — — + + + — + — + + — — — + + — — + + + — + + — + — + + + + + + + + — + — — + + — — — + + — + — — — + + + + + + .. — — — — — + — + + + — — + + + + + + — — + + + — + + + — + — + + — + + — — + + + + + + + — + — — — — + + — — — — — + + + — — + + — — + — — + — + + + — + — + + — — — + + — + — + + + — — + + + + + + + + + — + — — + + + — — + — + + + + + + + + + + + — — — + + — + — — — — + + + + + — — + + + — — + + + — + — — — — + + + — + — — + + — + — + — + — — — + + + — — + + + + + + + + — — + + — + + — + — + — + + + + + — — — + — + + — + + + + — + + + + — — — + + + + + + + + — — — — — + + + + — + + — — + — + — — — + + + + + + + + + + — — — — + + + — + + + — — + + + + — + — + — + + + — + + + — — — + — + + — + — — + — — — + + + — + + + + + — — + — — + — + + + — + + + — — + + — — + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + — + + + — + — + — + — — + — + — + — — + + — + — — + + — — — + + + + — + + — — — + + + + — — + + + + + + — — + — — + — — — + + — + + + — — — + + + + — — + — — — + + + + + + + + — — + + — + — + — — — + + — — — + — + + — + + + + + + — — + + + — + + — — — — — — Positive correspondences 516 Negative correspondences 340 Zero correspondences 135 Degree of Correspondence + . 178 64 MONEY AND PRICES CORRESPONDEN'CE OF BOND PrICE MOVEMENT AND Mo\^MENT OF NeT DEPOSITS IN New York Clearing House Banks for Same Week 0) o>o»o»0'0io^o*0'0>o*oooooo 000 ;> 00000000000000000000 0000>OvO> o«o>c> I . *^ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2. '■ + + + + — — + + + + — — + — + + + 3- . + — + + — + + + — + + — — — + + + + + 4- . + + + + + + — + + + + + — — — — + 5- + + + + + — + — + + + — + — — + 6. . — — — — — — + + — + + + — + + + + + + 7- — + + + + + — — — + — + — + + + 8. . + + + + + — — + + — + + — + + — 9- . + + — — — + + + — — + + + + + — 10. . — — — + + + — + — — + — + + + + II . . — — — + + — — + — + + + + — + + 12. — — — + — + + + — — — + — — + — 13- . + + + + + + + — — + + + + — — + 14- . + — — — + — — + — + + + + + + + — + 15- — — + — — — + — + + + — + + + 16. — — — + — + + + + — — + — + + — — + 17- . — + + — + + + + + — + — + + — — _(_ 18. — + — + + — + + — + + 4- 19. . + + — — + — + + + — — + — + + + 20. + + — + — + + + — + + + + — + 21 . . + — — + + + + + + — — — + + + + — + 22. + + + + — + + + — + — + + — — + 23- . — + + — + + + + + + + + + + — 24. . + + + + + + + + — — + + — + + — 25- . — — + — + — + + + + — — + + 26. — + + + — + + — + + + — + — — — 27. . — — + + — — — — — + + + — + + c + + 28. . — — + — + — + — + + + + — + — — 29. + + — — + — + — + — — + + — + 30 • . + + + + + + + + — — — — — — + — + 31 . — + — + + + + + + + — — — — — — + 32- . + + — — — + + + — — — — + + + + Zi- . + — + + + — — + + — — — — — + + + — 34- . + + + + + + — + + — — + — — — + 35- . + — + + + + — + + + — + + + + — 36. — — + — — — — — + — + + + + + + + 37- . + + + — — + — + + + + + — + + + + 38. . + + — — — + — + + + + + + — — + 39- + — — — + + + + — + + + + — 40. — + — — — + + — + + + — — — — + + 41- . + + — + — + + + — — — — — — + + + 42. + + — + + + + + 4- + + + + 43- . — + + + — + — — + — — + + — + — + + + 44- . + + — + + — — + + + + + — + + — — 45- . + + + — + — + + + — — + + + + — — 46. . + — — — — — + + + + + — — + + — + 47- . — + + — + — + — + — — + + + — + + + 48. . + + — + + — — + + — + + + — + + + + 49- . + + + — — + + + — + + — — + + — — 50- . + + + + + + — + + + — + — + — — 51- . + + + — + — — — + + — — — + + 52- . + + + — + + + + + — + + + — — — S3- . — — — Positive correspondences 533 Negative correspondences 32^ Zero correspondences 13s Degree of Correspondence . . .• +.212 APPENDIX 65 Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for Following Week S» f>Q»oo.ooo»o>o»o*oooooo 000 00 CO 00 00 M + + + + + M M + + + + M + + 4- + M M + + M 4- + + + + — — + + + — — 4 — + + 4- + + + — — — — — + + — — — + + + + 4- + + + + + — + + + + + + — — — — + + + — + + + + — + + 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- — + + — — + — + + + + — + — — + + 4- 4- + — + — — — — + — — + + — + + + + — — — + + — — 4- — — + — + + + — + + + + — + — + — 4- 4- — + + + + — + + — — + — + + 4- — + + + + + — + + + + — + — + — — — + — + + + + + — 4- — + — — + + + + + + + — — + + + 4- — — 4- + + + + + + + — — + + + + — + 4- — 4- + — — — + — + + + — — + 4- — — — — + + + + + — — + + 4- 4- — 4- + — — — + + — — + — + — + + + 4- + + — + + — + — + 4- + + + + + + + + + — + — — — + — — — + + + + — — — — + + + + + — + + + + + — + + + + + — + + + — — + + + + — + + + + — — — — 4- — + 4 + + — + + + + + + — 4- + 4 + + — + + + + + — + — + — + 4- — + + — + + + — + — — + + + + — + — + + — + + + + + 4- + — — + + — — — — — + + — + + — + 4- 4- + + + + — — + — + — + + — — 4 — + + + + + + + — + — + + — 4- — + + + + + + + — — — — — 4- — — 4- + — + + — + + + — — 4- + — + + + — — + + + + + — + — + — — + + + + + — — + — — — — + + + + — + — — 4 — + + + + — — + — — + + — + + + + + — + + + — + + 4- + — + + + + + — + + — + + + — 4- + + + — + — — + + + + + — + — — — — — + + — — + + — + — + + 4- 4- — — + — — — + + + + — + — + + — + + — — — + + — + + + + + + + + — + + — + + — + + — + + + + — + + 4- + + + + + + + + — — — + + — — + + + + — — + — — + + — — — + — — + — — + + — — + + + — + — — + — — + — + + + + + + + 4- — 4- + + + — 4- + — + — + — + + — + + — — — — 4- + + + — + — + + + — + — — + — + — 4 + + + t + + — + + + — — — — — — — — + + + — + — + — + 4- 4 — 4- 4- — — + + + + — — + + — — + + — — — + + — + — + + 4 4- 4 + — + + + + + — — + + + + + + + + — — — + Positive correspondences 53^ Negative correspondences 327 Zero correspondences 133 Degree of Correspondence + • 206 66 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for Second Week Following »r> so r^ 00 00 00 00 + + + + - + + + - + + - - + + - + - - + + + + - + - - + + + + + - + + + o + - + + + + + + - - + + + - - + + - + - - o — — + - - O + + + + - - + + + + + + - + + + + + - O + - - + + + + - + o + + - + - + o — o + o - + + - + + — — o o — o - + + - + o - + + o + o + + o + + o + + + + + + - + o + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + - + - o + + + - + o + + o + + + + + - + - + + - + + + + o + - o + + + + + + + + + + + + - - + + + + - + + + - + + - + + + + + - + + - + - + o + - - + + - + + + + + + - o — — + + - + o + + - + + - - - + - - + + + + + - + + - - + - + + + - + + - - - + + o + + - + + + + + - + + + - - — o — + + + + + + + - + - + + + - + o + - + + + + - - + + - + + + - + + - - 4- + - - o + - + - o + + + - + + + - + - + + - + - o + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + o + - + - + + + - - + — o o + + + + + o + + - + + + o + - + + + o + + o — + + + + o — + - + + + o + - - + + + o — - + — o + - + o + + + - + + o o + + — o + + + - + o - + + + + - + - + + + - + + - + + - + + + + - - + - + + + + + + + o - + + + o + + + + + + + + + + + o + + + + + o - + + - + + - + + - o + - - + + o + + + + + + + o - - o — o o + + + + + + + + + + + + o o — + o - + o — - + — o + o + + + - - + o + + - + o + - — o - + + - + o + + + o + + + + + + + + + o — + + + - + + o o + + o o - + o — + + o — + - + o + - - + + - - + - o + + + + + o + o + o I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 lO II 12 13 14 15 i6 17 i8 iQ 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 •27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Positive correspondences 491 Negative correspondences 367 Zero correspondences 133 Degree of Correspondence +125 - + + + - + - + + - + - - + + + + + + o o — + - + - + - - + - + + + - + + + - + + + o o - + + + - + + - - + o + o + + + + + - + o + + + - - + - + o + — + 4- - - + + + - - + - + - + + - - + - + - - + + - + + + APPENDIX 67 Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for — previous month Month Jan. . . Feb... Mar. . Apr. . . May . June.. July.. Aug. . Sept . . Oct .. Nov. . Dec. + + -- + + + + + +0 - + + + + - + + + + + + _____o --- + + + + + ___ + __ + + __ + _ - + -- + + - + + - + + + + + o + - + + + + + - o - + + + - + + - + - — o — — o - + - + + + - - + - + + + + + + + - - - + - + + + + + + + + - + + + + - - + o + - — o — + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + - + - + - + - + + + - + + + + + + - - + - + o + - + + - - Positive correspondences 120 Negative correspondences 94 Zero correspondences 12 Degree of Correspondence + . iiS SAME MONTH M „ t^ •o- lO ^0 r^ 00 Q „ to Month M ^ 00 0. 00 00 0. 00 M M ^ 0. §> a a 01 §, Jan . . . + + + — — — + + + + + + — + + + + Feb . . . + + + + — + + + + + + + — + + + + Mar + + + + + + + + — — — — + — + + + Apr — — — + + + — — + — — + + — + + + + May. . . . + + + — — + + — + + — — + + — — — + + June.. . — — — + + + + + + — — — — + + + + + July. . . — + + — + — + — + — — — + + + Aug + + + — + + — — + + — + — + — + + + Sept. . . — — + + — — — — + + — + — + + + Oct . . . — + — — — + + + + + + — — + + _ Nov . . . . + — + + — — + + + + + — — — — + + — Dec . . . — + + — + + + + — + + + — + + + — Positive correspwjndences 131 Zero correspondences 12 Negative correspondences 84 Degree of Correspondence + . 207 FOLLOWING MONTH Month Jan . . Feb .. Mar .. Apr. . . May.. June. . July. . Aug.. Sept. . Oct .. Nov. . Dec .. 8. - + + - + - + + + + + + - - + + - - + o + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + + + + + + + -- + -- + + - + + - + + - - - + o - + o - - - - + + + + - + + -- + - - + + + + + -- + + - + + + + -0 - + - o - + + + + - + - - + + + - + + - o o - - + + + - + - - - + + - - - + - + + - + + + + + - - + + --- + - + + + - + o - + - - + + Positive correspondences 108 Zero correspondences 12 + + + + - + + Negative correspondences 107 Degree of Correspondence + .004 68 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for — PREVIOUS MONTH JVlontu 00 00 « 00 00 00 CO Jan.. . Feb. . . Mar . . Apr. . . May. . . June . . July.. Aug . . . Sept . . Oct . . Nov. . Dec . . + + + + - + + + + - + - - o + + + + + + - - - + - + + - + - + + + + o - o - - - + + + --- + + - + + + + + + - + + + - + - + o + + + + + + + - + - - o — — — + + + + + - + + + - + + + - + + - + o — — - + + + + + + + + - + + o - + - + + + - - o o - + - - - + + - + - + + - + - + - + + + + + + - + + - + - + Positive correspondences 121 Zero correspondences 12 Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . + + + + + + + + + + - + - - + + + + + + + + + + + - + 93 + .124 SAME MONTH O MMf^-**/^^ r^00O0t-fNf0'»t>'l\Of^00 fLjr tU OO^OOtOiO^OiOiChOOOOO OOOOO Montn 00000000000000000000 c^c^c^c^o^c^o^o>o» Jan "+ + + - + + + + + + + + - + + +0 + Feb - + + + - + +0 + + + + +0 - + -- + Mar....- + - + +o +- + + --- + - + + + - Apr -- + - + -- + + - + + - + + + + - + May.... - + + + - + + + + + - + + + + -- + + June.... + + - + + + + + + + - + - + + + + + - July.... -0+ + - + - + + +0+-- + - + + + Aug + +0 +- + + + + + + --- + + - + + Sept.... + 0+ + + -- + + + +0+- + - + + + Oct _ + _-- + o + + + + + + --- + + + N0V....+ - + + - + + + + + ----- + -- Dec....+ + + - o + + + + + + + + + - + + -- Positive correspondences 148 Negative correspondences 67 Zero correspondences 12 Degree of Correspondence +-357 FOLLOWING MONTH Month 00 00 CO 00 00 00 0. 00 0. 00 s 00 s §> s & 6 0. M 8> Jan.. . . + + + + + — + + + + + + — + + + + Feb.... + — + — + + — — + — — — — — + + + Mar . . . + — + + + + + — + — — + — + + — — Apr. . . . — + — + + + — — + + + — — + — — — + May. . . — + + + + + — + + + — — — — + + — — + June.. . — — + + — + — + + — + — — — + — — + — July. . . + + + + 4- + + + + — — — + — — + + Aug . . . + — + — + + — + + + + + + + + + + Sept . . . + + + + — + — — + — + — — + — + + Oct. . . . + + — — + + — + + + — — — — — — — — Nov . . . + — + + — + + + + + + — + + — + + — Dec . . . + + + + + — + - — + + — — + + Positive correspondences 127 Zero correspondences 12 Negative correspondences 88 Degree of Correspondence + . 172 APPENDIX 69 Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States for — second month previous Month Jan.. , Feb.. Mar . Apr.. May.. June. . July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov. Dec. + - + + + + + + - - + + - + + — o - + + o + + o — - + - - + + + + + - + + + + o + + + + + + + o + + + + + - + + 4- o + o + + + - + + + + + - - - + - - + + + + - + + - + - - + + - + + + + + + - + - + + - + - o + - - + + + o - - - - + + - + - + + o + + + - + - + + - + - + - + + + + + + + - + + - + + - - + --0+ + + + - + -- + + + + - + + - - + + - + + - + o - + - + + Positive correspondences 117 Zero correspondences 16 Negative correspondences 9a Degree of Correspondence +. in PREVIOUS month Month S S S Jan.. . Feb .. Mar. . Apr. . . May.. June. . July. . Aug.. Sept . . Oct. . . Nov .. Dec. . . + + + - + + + + + + + + - + -+0 + + + - + + - o + + + + + - + - + -0+-- + + + + -- + + + + ------ + + + - + + + - - + o — — + - - + - + o o + + + + - + + + + + o + + + + + + — — + + - + + + - + + - + -- + + - + + --- - + + ------ + - - + +0 + + + --- + -- + + --0+ + - + + + - + - + + --- - + -- + - + + + + + + -- + - + + + + -- + + + + + + - + + - + + -0 - + - + -o - + + + - + -- + + - Positive correspondences 123 Zero correspondences 16 + + Negative correspondences 87 Degree of Correspondence + • rS9 SAME month „ „ •"I- in VO t^ 00 „ „ ■* t^ Month 0. Ov » 00 00 00 00 00 00 H 01 01 Ov o> CT 0. Jan.. . . + + — + + + + + + + + — + — + + Feb . . . . + — + — — + — + + + + + — — — + Mar . . . . + — — + — 4- — — + + — — + — + + — + Apr. . . . . + + + + + + — + + — + — + — — — May.. . . — + + + + + — — + + — + — + — — — + — June. . . . + + + + + + + — + — + — + + — — + + + July. . . . + — + + + — — + — — + — — + + Aug.. . . — — — — + — + — — + — — — + + — — + Sept... . — + + + — — + + — — + — + + — — — + Oct . — + + — — + — + — — + — + + + + — + Nov . . . — — — + — — + + + — + + — + + — — + Dec. . . . . — + — — + + + + — + — — + — — — + Positive correspondences 115 Zero correspondences 16 Negative correspondences 96 Degree of Correspondence + . 084 70 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Bond Price Movement with Movement of Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States for Following Month Month 00 00 00 00 00 ir> yd r^ Jan. . . . M + " + + + + + + + + + "^ + _ M o o + Feb. . . . — + + — — + — o + + + — — o — — + — — Mar. . . . + — o o o — + — + + + + — — — — — + Apr — + — — + — + — + + + + — — — — — — May. . . . — + — + + + — — + — + + + — — — — — — June. . . . O + + — + + + — — — — + — o + — + + — July... . — o + — + + — + — — o — — — + — — — + Aug . . . . — — o — — — — + + — + — — — + + — — + Sept... — + — + + — + + — — + o — + + — — — + Oct — + + — + — o — + — — + — + + + + — + Nov . . . — — + — + 4- + + — + + — + — — o — — Dec... . — + + — o + + + + — + — — + — — — + — Positive correspondences 9& Zero correspondences i6 Negative correspondences 1 13 Degree of Correspondence — .066 Correspondence of the Yearly Movement of Bond Prices with the Move- ment OF THE New York Clearing House Banks Specie and Legal Tenders for — Net Deposits for — Previous Same Following 2d Year ^ Previous Same Following Year Year Year Following ^^^ Year Year Year 1890 -1- - - + 1891 + - - + + - + 1892 + + - - + - + 1893 - + - + - - 1894 - + + - - + 189s + + + - - 1896 + + - - + + + 1897 - + + + + + + 1898 + + + + -f + + 1899 + + + + 4- + — 1900 + + + 4- + — — 1901 + + ~ 4- — — + 1902 + — — -i- 4- — + 1903 + + — — + — — 1904 — + + + — — + 190S + + — 4- + — + 1906 — + — — + — + 1907 - + + 000 o 1908 o o o Correspondence with Specie and Legal Tenders Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . previous year Negative correspondences 5 Degree of Correspondence + . 389 same year Negative correspondences 4 Degree of Correspondence + . 500 FOLLOWING year 4 Negative correspondences 13 I Degree of Correspondence — . 500 SECOND year FOLLOWING Negative correspondences S Degree of Correspondence + . 389 APPENDIX 71 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero corresjMndences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Correspondence with Net Deposits previous year Negative correspondences 6 Degree of Correspondence +.278 SAME YEAR Negative correspondences 3 Degree of Correspondence +.611 FOLLOWING YEAR Negative correspondences 11 Degree of Correspondence — . 278 Correspondence of the Yearly Movement of Bond Prices and the Move- ment OF Both Per Capita and Total Circulation of Money in the United States for — Year 1890. 1891. 1892. 1893. 1894. 1895. 1896. 1897. 1898. 1899. Previous Year + + + + + Same Year + + + + + + + Following Year + + + Year 1900. 1901. 1902. 1903. 1904. 1905. 1906. 1907. 1908. Previous Year . + . + . + + + o Same Following Year Year + + + + + + o + + + + + + o PREVIOUS YEAR Positive correspondences 11 Zero correspondences i Negative correspondences 6 Degree of Correspondence + . 278 SAME YEAR Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences 4 Degree of Correspondence + . 500 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . , FOLLOWING YEAR 9 Negative correspondences 8 I Degree of Correspondence + .056 Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Second Month Previous Month Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . , 8. Jan. . . . H M + HI M + W + + _ M + M M _ M IH M W Feb. . . . + — + + + — — — + + — + — — + + — + Mar . . . — — — + + — — — + + + — — + — — + + Apr. . . . — + — + — — + — — + + + + — + — + + + — May. . . . + + + — — + + — + + + + — + + + + — June. . . . + + — — — + + — — — + + — + — + + July... + + — — + — — — + + — — — — + — + + — Aug. .. . — + + + — + + + + — — — + + + — + + + + Sept... . — + + — + + + + + + — + + — + + + + — Oct. . . . . + — — — + — — + + + + — + — + — + + + — Nov. . . — + + + + — + — — — — + — — + + — + Dec. . . . — + + + — + — — + + — — — — — — — — — — 120 Negative correspondences 108 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 051 72 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for — PREVIOUS month H/f„«*V. OiOOOvO>0>0>OOC>0 o o o o o o o o o JMOnLn OOOOOOOOOOOOOOGOOOOO OONOtOOlCOtOtOvO Jan + + -- + +0+ + +0 -- + -- + + - Feb + + - + + + + + + Mar.... 4------- o -- + + + -- + + + + - Apr +- + - + + + + + + + + + - May.... -0---- + + + + - + 04-- + -- + + June.... -H --+0 - + -- + --- + -{ + + July.... + + + + + + + + + + + + - Aug.... - + - + + + - + + + - + + + + + + Sept.... +- + + + + - + + 0+ + Oct + + + - + + + - + + + + + Nov.... -- + +0 + + + + -- + --- o - + - + Dec + + + + + + + + + + + Positive correspondences 119 Negative correspondences 110 Zero correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 038 Month SAME MONTH I r^ 00 On O M Jan + + + -0+ + + + + + + + + - + + Feb + + --- + + -- + + + + -- + + + - + Mar.... - + + + + -+0 + + --- + -- + + + - Apr ___ + 4-__ + _ h + + + h + May. ... +0 --- + - + + ---0 - + --- + + June.... --- + + +0 + + + h + + - + + + + July.... h- + - + + -H + - + + -- + - Aug.... + + - + + + + + + - Sept.... h + ---- + 4- + - 1----0- + Oct - + - + - + + + - + -- h--- + -- Nov.... +- + +0 _ + - + - + ---- o + + - + Dec - + + + + + - + + - o + + + -- + H Positive correspondences 119 Negative correspondences iii Zero correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence +033 FOLLOWING MONTH Month Jan + + + + + - o + + + + + + + + - + H Feb -- + + + + - + + ---- + -- + + - + Mar.... + + -- + - + - + + -- + ---- + + Apr +-- + + + + + - + + + ------ + + May. ... +0 - + + + + - + + - + +- + - + + + June. ... -- + + - + +- + - + + - + + + + + + July.... + + - + + + + - + - + --- + - + - + + Aug ______ + _-_ + -- + _-- + -- Sept.... - + + + + - + --4- + + + + -- + h Oct + + - + + - + -- + + + - + -- + + -- Nov .... -- + +0 + + - + +0 - + + - o +-- + Dec - + - + --- + + - + -- + + + - + + Positive correspondences 130 Negative correspondences 99 Zero correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence +.130 APPENDIX 73 Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in New York Clearing House Banks for Second Month Following AJ««*-k 0*0>0«0\O0nO0v0^O0 OOO OOOOOO ivLOnin OOOOCOOOOOOOCOOOOOOO O-OOOvOOOOO^O* Jan .... ____4-+o— — — — — — + — — + + — Feb +--- + H + - 1 - + -- Mar - + -- + H o -- + + -- + H - + + Apr + + --- + ---- + - + + + + - + + + May. ... +o + + — + — — — + — — o — — — — + + + June.... + + + + + +0 + - + + + + - July.... - + H + - + -- + -H - + -- + Aug.... - + H -- + - + + + + -- + + -- Sept.... + + + + - + + + - + + + o - + Oct - + - + + + H __o+ + --- + --- Nov.... +o - + - + + + + - + +0 -- + Dec - + + + + - + + + - + + - Positive correspondences 104 Negative correspondences 124 Zero correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence — .084 Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for — previous month Month 00 0. 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0. 00 00 & g & & a a a a a Jan + — — + + + + + + — — + Feb + — — + + — — — + + + + — — + — — — — Mar .... — — — — — — — — — + + + — — + — — + — Apr — — — — + — — — + + — — — + + + + + 4- — May. . . . — — + — — + + — + — + + — + + — + + June. . . . + + — + — 4- + + — — — — — + + 4- — + + July.... + + + + + + + + — + + — + + + — — — + — Aug + + + + — + + — + — + — + + — + + 4- Sept .... + — 4- — — + — + — + — + + — + + + + 4- Oct . + — + — + — — + + + + + + + 4- + 4- + — Nov .... — — + + + + + + — — + + — — — + 4- + Dec + + + + + + — + + + — + — — — — 4- + — — Positive correspondences . . 127 Negative correspondences . . 102 Zero correspondences . 9 Degree of Correspondence . . +. los same ; month M IN ■* Irt r^ 00 0- „ „ -* tn vO t^ 00 Oi Month Ov 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0. Oi 0. 0. 0. Cf. o\ 0. Jan + + + — + + + + + + + + + 4- + + + Feb — + — — — + + — — + + + + — — 4- — — — + Mar . + + — + + — + + — — — — + — — + 4- 4- — Apr — — — — + — — + + — + — — + + + + — + + May. . . . — — + — + — — + — — + — — — — — + + June. . . . + + — + + + + + — — + + + + — + + 4- 4- July.... — — + — + — + — — — + + — 4- + 4- — + — Aug + — — + — + + + + — — + + — + 4- + + + — Sept .... . + + + + — — + + + — — — 4- + 4- — 4- 4- Oct — + — + — + + + — + — — + + — — — 4- + — Nov . + — + + + + — + — — — — — — 4- — — + Dec + + + + + + — + + + + + + + — — + — — — Positive corresponden( :es. , 1,^2 Negative correspondences. . q8 Zero corres ipondences . 9 Degree of Correspondence . . 4. 142 74 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Net Deposits IN New York Clearing House Banks for — FOLLOWING month •kr ^u OsOvOOO*0«00000000000000 iVlOIlLO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OvOOChOvOOiOtOiO* Jan + + + + + - o + + + + + + + + + - + - Feb +-- + + + -- + + -- h-- + + h Mar + + - + + - + 04- + + -- + --H h + Apr ---- + + + -- + H h- + + May.... - o - + + + + - + --- o +- + - + + + June.... --+H + o + + + + - + [- + - + + + July.... + + - + + + + + + - + -+ + + + Aug +o + - + + + + + - + + - Sept.... - + + + + h + + H + + o + + Oct + + - + + + + + - + - + + Nov +- + + o + + - + - + - + + - o + + - + Dec - + - + + + - + + - + + + + - + + Positive correspondences 136 Negative correspondences 93 Zero correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 181 SECOND MONTH FOLLOWING Month <§• tg' <§' Jan " 1 + Feb + - - Mar + + - Apr _ _ _ May. ... + o + June. ... + + + July + o — Aug - + - Sept.... + + + Oct + 4- - Nov _ _ _ Dec - + - Positive correspondences . . Zero corresjxjndences .... ^ + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + o - + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + +0 0+ + + - + + ^ + + + + - + + - + + - + - + — + + + + o + - + - — + - + + - + + + - + + + + - — + + + + — - + + + + - + + + + - + — + + 127 Negative correspondences . 9 Degree of Correspondence . + + - + + + + - + + + - + + + + + 4- + + - + + - + + - + + + - — o - + + - + + - + + - lOI + .110 Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States for Previous Month Month Jan. . . . + + + — + + + + + + + + + — + — + — Feb. . . . + — + + + — — — + + + + — — — — — — 4- Mar., . . . + + — + — — + — — + + + — — — — + — Apr . + + — — — — — — — + + — — + + + + — — — May. . . . + — + — + + — — — — — — — — — + June. . . . + + — + + + — + — — — 4- — — + + — — + July... . + + — + + + + — — — — + — + — + — — — — Aug... . — — — + + — — — — + + + + + 4- + — Sept... — + + + — + + + + — — + + — + + 4- + + Oct. . . . — + + + + + — — — + — — — + + — — + 4- Nov — — + + + — + + + + — + + — — + — Dec. . . . . — + — + + — — + + — + — — + + + — + + + Positive correspondences 118 Zero correspondences 13 Negative correspondences .'.... 107 Degree of Correspondence + . 046 APPENDIX 75 Correspondence of Stock Price Movement with Movement of Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States for — same month ■Kr it, 0>0.0>d.O>OvO>0.0>O.OOOOOOOOOQ Montn OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 0\0>OvO>OvOvOvOvO>Oi Tan " + + -- + +0+ + + + + + + -H H Feb + + - + -. + + + + o + Mar ___ + -- + o -- + -- + -- + --- Apr + + -0 0+ + + - + + + + - + ---- + May.... -o - + + + + + + -- + - + ---- + June.... + + + + + +0 - + + + -- + -+ + + - + July.... oH h + H + - + - + +H - + + Aug - + + - + - + - + + -+.+ + - + - Sept.... - + + + - h + --- + H + + +0 +- Oct - + + + - + + + + + + + Nov .... ---+o - + - + + + + - + +0 - - + - Dec -H + + + - + + - + --H + - -{ Positive correspondences 121 Negative correspondences 105 Zero correspondences 13 Degree of Correspondence +.067 FOLLOWING MONTH Month Jan h- + + +o+ + + + + + + -o-H Feb 1-- + -H -- + + -- + --H + + Mar ___o o+— o — — + + + — — + — — — + Apr h- + - + -l H __-- + May.... - o + + + + + + + + + + o +H - + - + June.... 0+ + - + +0 -- + - + +0 + + + + + - July.... + + - + + + + - + - + + - + + + Aug.... + + + - + + - + + + - + + Sept.... - + - + + - + + --- + + - + + +0+- Oct - + + + + - + --- + --- + + -- + + Nov ---+0+ + - + + + + - + -0 --- + Dec - + + + + + - + + - + -- + - + - + -- Positive correspondences 122 Negative correspondences 104 Zero correspondences 13 Degree of Correspondence + .075 SECOND MONTH FOLLOWING Month Jan +H + + +0+ + + --- + ----- Feb - + -0 o - + + - + + + + -- + -- + - Mar + + - + - + +0 -- + - + - + + --- + Apr + + - + - + + - + May 00+- + + + + - + --00--- + + - June. ... -- + - + +0 +--- + + - + + + - + - July.... --H - + - + + -H + + - + H Aug. ... - + + - + + + + - + + - + + + - + + Sept.... - + - + - + + + --- + + - + + +0 +- Oct - + + + + + H - -\ ___ + _--- Nov -- + +0+ + - + + + + - + -0 --- + Dec + + + - + + - + + - + -- + - o - + - + Positive correspondences 114 Negative correspondences 112 Zero correspondences 13 Degree of Correspondence + . 008 76 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of the Yearly Movement of Stock Prices (Mitchell's Table) WITH the Movement of the New York Clearing House Banks Specie and Legal Tenders for — 2d Year Previous Same Following Previous Year Year Year + — — — + + — — — + — — + — + — + — — — + + — — — + + — + + + + + + + + + + + + + 4- — + + — — — + + — + + — + — + — — + — — + + + — + + — + — + — + Year 1890 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1 90s 1906 1907 1908 1909 Net Deposits for — 2d Year Previous Same Following Previous Year Year Year + — + + — — — + — — + — + — + — — — + + — — — + + — + + + + + + + + + + + + + + — + + — — — + + — + + — — — + + — + + — + — + — — + — — — + + + Correspondence of Specie and Legal Tenders Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive corresF>ondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . second year previous Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . previous year Negative correspondences S Degree of Correspondence + . 474 same year Negative correspondences 8 Degree of Correspondence +.158 following year Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Correspondence of Net Deposits SECOND year previous Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . previous year Positive correspondences 16 Zero correspondences o Negative correspondences 3 Degree of Correspondence + . 684 SAUE YEAR Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences 8 Degree of Correspondence + . 158 following YEAR Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . APPENDIX 77 Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices (Mitchell's Table) with THE Movement of the Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States Per Capita Circui-ation for- k'ear Previous Same Following vious Year Year Year + + + + — — — + — — + — + — + — — — + + — — — + + — + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 4- + + + + + + Year 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 Total CracuLATioN for — 2d Year Previous Same Following Previous Year Year Year + + + — — — + — — + — + — + — — — + + — — — + + — + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Per Capita Circulation Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . second year previous Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . previous year Positive correspondences 12 Zero correspondences o Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences 7 Degree of Correspondence + . 263 SAME YEAR Negative correspondences 7 Degree of Correspondence + . 263 following year Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Total Circulation second year previous Negative correspondences 11 Degree of Correspondence — . 158 previous year Negative correspondences 7 Degreee of Correspondence + . 263 SAME year Negative correspondences 7 Degree of Correspondence + . 263 following year Negative correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 053 78 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of the Movement of Stock Prices (Commons and Stone's Table) with the Movement of the Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States Per Capita Cikculation foe- Total Circulation for — + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + + + E rt =3 c<) Ph> c/2>< tn>i + + + + + 4- + + + - + + + + P aj T3 O T? O + + + + + + - - - + + + + - - + + - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + 1879 1880 1890 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1900 1 901 S ^1 B "1 ■%k ■si; l^ ^^ •SfS + + + + + + + + + + + + - - - - + + + + + + _ + + + + + — + + + _ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + — — + — — + + — + — + + — + + — — + + — + + — — — — — + + + + — + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . , Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Per Capita Circulation SECOND year previous Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . previous year Negative correspondences 7 Degree of Correspondence + • 333 SAME YEAR Negative correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 182 FOLLOWING year 13 Negative correspondences 9 o Degree of Correspondence + . 182 SECOND YEAR FOLLOWING 16 Negative correspondences S o Degree of Correspondence + . 524 THIRD YEAR PREVIOUS 13 Negative correspondences 7 o Degree of Correspondence + .300 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Total Circulation THIRD YEAR PREVIOUS Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . -.158 SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS Negative correspondences 5 Degree of Correspondence + . 500 IS APPENDIX 79 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . PREVIOUS YEAR Negative correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 143 SAME YEAR 13 Negative correspondences 9 Degree of Correspondence + . 182 FOLLOWING YEAR 17 Negative correspondences s Degree of Correspondence + . S4S SECOND FOLLOWING YEAR Positive correspondences 14 Zero correspondences o Negative correspondences 7 Degree of Correspondence + . 333 Correspondence of the Movement of the Prices of Farm Products with THE Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in Chicago Clearing House Banks for — second month previous previous month Month eg' Jan. . . Feb. . . Mar. . Apr. . . May.. June. . July.. Aug.. Sept . . Oct. . . Nov. . Dec. . . + + - + - + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + - - + + + + + + o - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - + + - + + + + - o + + - + - - + + + - + + + + — + Positive correspondences 58 Negative correspondences 57 Zero correspondences 2 Degree of Correspondence + . 009 - + -+ + -+ + + + + - + + + + + - + - + + + + - + + + + + + + + - + - + + + +0+ + - + + + + - +- + -+0+ + - + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + + - + + - + + - + + + + - + + + + + + Positive correspondences 65 Negative correspondences 51 Zero correspondences 2 Degree of Correspondence +.119 SAME month following month Month O>O>OOtO C0 0>0>0»0»0.0\00\0 Jan. - + + + + + + + + + + + + -- + Feb. + + + - + + + + + - + + + - + - + Mar. + + + - + + + + + Apr. + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + May + - + + + - + + + - +- + + - + - + + - June o+H H hoH July + + + + + -H + Aug. +- + + +0+- + - + +0+ + - + Sept. + + + + - + + + - + + + Oct. +-- + + + + + + + -- + -- Nov. + - + + + + + - + + +-- + - + - + + + Dec. - + - + + - + - + - -- + - + - + + - Positive correspondences 64 Positive correspondences .... 63 Negative correspondences 53 Negative correspondences ... 53 Zero correspondences 2 Zero correspondences 2 Degree of Correspondence. . . . + 092 Degree of Correspondence. . . +-085 10 ^0 I^ 00 0000 0» 0^ O. O* + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + - + + - + + - + + + - + -- + -- + --0+- + - Positive correspondences .... 59 Negative correspondences ... 56 Zero correspondences 2 Degree of Correspondence. . . +.026 APPENDIX 8l Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in Chicago Clearing House Banks for — THIRD WEEK PREVIOUS SECOND WEEK PREVIOUS PREVIOUS WEEK vo r~ 00 •n vo »^ 00 O O O Q Ot Ot Ot Oi I.. - + + - + -- + + 2.. -- + + + 3-. + + - + + + - + - 4.- + + + - + - s-. +- + -- + -- + - 6.. - + - + + + + + + - 7.. - + + -- + + + + - 8.. + - + 9-. - + + + - + - + + - lo.. + + - + + + II.. +- + -- + + - + + 12.. + + + - + + 13- ■ -- + + + + + + + + 14.. + + + - + - + + - + IS-- - + + -- + - + -- 16.. + + + - + + + 17-- + + + + + - + + + + 18.. +- + + + + 19.. + + - + + 20.. -+oH + - + + 21.. h + - + + - 22.. -I 1 1 1- + 23-. - + -- + + + - + + 24.. + + + + + - + + + - 25.. o-j 1- + 26.. - + + - + 27.. + + +0 - + - + -- 28.. — + + + + + 29.. -\ + - + 30.. + + + + — + — + 31.. + +0 -- + 32.. +- + - + + + - + - 33- ■ +- + -- + + 34.. + + + - + + + 35-- + + -- + - 36.. -- + + + + -- 37.. + + + + 38.. + + - + + 39.. - + + - + - + -- + 40.. - + -- + + + - + + 41.. - + + + 42.. + + + + + + + 43-- - + + + + - 44-- - + - + + + + 45.. - + - + + + + + +0 46.. - + -- + -- + + - 47.. + + -- + + - 48.. + + + + + - + + 49.. - + + + + - + - + + SO.. - + - + + + + SI-- - + + - + -- + + + S2.. + + -- + + + + Positive correspondences 265 Negative correspondences .... 248 Zero correspondences S Degree of Correspondence. . . . +.033 -- + + - + -- + + + + + + + + + + + + - + - + -+ + -+ + + -+ + + + - + -- + - + - + - + - + - + - + + + + - + + - + + -- + - - + -+ + + - + + -- + + + - + - + -- + + - + + -- + -- + +-- + - - o - + - -t- - + + + + -- + + - - + - o + - + + + - - -+ o - - + - + + - + -- - + -- + + + + + + + + - + -- + - + + - - + -- + + o - + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + - + Positive correspondences . . Negative correspondences . , Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence . + - - + + + + + + + + + + - + + + - + + - + + - + + - + - - + + + - - + + + + - + + + + - + + + + + + + - + + + - + + + - - - + - - - + - + + - + + - - + + + + + - + + + + - + - - - + - + + + + + + - - + + + + + o - + - + - - + - + - + + + - + - + - + + 26g 24s S .+.046 - - + + + + + - + - - + - + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + - + + + + + - + + + + + + + - - + - - + - + + + + + + + + + + + - - + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + - + + - + - + - - + - + - + + - + + + - - + + + +- + + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + + - + - + - + + o + - + - + o - + + + + - + ++ o - + + - - + + + - + + - + — + - + + + - - + + + + - - + + — + H + + + + — + + + + - - + + + Positive correspondences . Negative correspondences . Zero correspondences .... Degree of Correspondence - + - + + - - + - - - + + + + + + + - + - - + - + + + + + - + + - - + - - + + - + - - + - + - + - + - + + + + + + - - + - - - + + - 4- - + - - + - + +- - + o + - + + - + + + - - + - - - + 262 253 S .+.017 82 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement OF Specie and Legal Tenders in Chicago Clearing House Banks for — SAME ^ tVEEK FC )LLC WI^ IG V VEEl K o- Q ^ o> o> o> 0. 0. o> CO M Ov Ov c> o> o> o> I . . . . + 4- + _ + _ + — + + + + + — 4- — 4- - 4- 2. + + + + + + + + — 4- — 4- 4- 4- 4- + + 4- - 4- 3. + + + + — + — + — — — — 4- 4- — — — 4. + _ — — + + — — — 4- — — 4- — 4- 4- — 4- - 5. — + + + + — — + — + + + + + — 4- 4- - + 6. + — — — — — — — + 4- — 4- — — — — — — — 7. + — — + — — — — + — 4- — + + 4- — 4- — 4- - 8. + + — + + — — + + — — 4- 4- — + — — + 4- - 9 + + — + + + + + 4- — + 4- — 4- — — — - 4- 10. + + + + — — — — 4- 4- 4- 4- — — — + — + + II. + + + + — + + + 4- — 4- — 4- 4- 4- — 4- 4- 4- 12. + + — + + — + + 4- — 4- 4- — — 4- + 4- + - 13- + + + + — — + — — — — + + — + 4- — 4- - 14. + + + + — — — + — 4- 4- 4- 4- — — — — + 4- 15- + + + — — — + — — 4- — 4- 4- — + 4- 4- - 16. + — — + — — + — — 4- — 4- — — — — - 4- 17- — + + — — + + 4- — — + 4- — — 4- — 4- 4- 18. _ _ + — — — + — — — 4- — — + + + - 4- 19. _ _ — — + + + — 4- 4- — 4- — — — 4- 4- - 4- 20. + + — + + + — — — — 4- — + 4- 4- + 4- — — 21. — — — + + — + + + — 4- 4- — 4- - + 22. — + + + + — + + + 4- — 4- 4- 4- 4- — — 4- + 23- + + + + + — — + 4- 4- — + + + 4- 4- + - 24. + — + + + + + 4- — — — — — — + — — — 25- — + — + — + + — + — + — 4- + — — — — — 26. + + + + + — — 4- — 4- — + — 4- 4- — — — — 27. + + — + — + + — — + — 4- 4- — 4- — + — — 28. + + + — — — — + + — 4- — + — — — — 4- — — 29. + + — — + — — — — — — 4- — — + — — - 4- 3°- — + — + + — — + — — — — + 4- 4- + — 4- 4- 31- — — + + + + — 4- 4- 4- — — 4- — — + 4- 4- 32- — + + + — — + + 4- — — + + + — — — 4- — — 33- _ + + + — — + 4- 4- — + — 4- + — 4- 4- 4- - 34- — — + + + + — — + — 4- — 4- — 4- 4- — — 35- _ + + — + — — — — 4- 4- — 4- — — 4- + — — — 36. — — + + + — — — — + — — + 4- 4- — — 37- — + + — — — — + + — + — 4- — — — — 4- 4- - 38. + + — + + — — 4- — — 4- — — 4- + — + — — 39- + + — + — + + + 4- — — 4- — 4- — 4- — — — 40. — + — + + + — 4- — + 4- — — 4- 4- 4- — — — 41- _ — — — — + — — 4- — — — 4- — — — — 4- — — 42. _ — _ — + + + — — — — — 4- + — — 4- - 4- 43- + — + + + + 4- 4- 4- + 4- — — + 4- + 4- 4- 44. — + + + — + — 4- — + — — — — + + — — — 45- + _ + — — — — — — + 4- + — — + — — — 46. + + + — — — — — — 4- 4- + — — — + 4- — - 4- 47- + + — + + + — + 4- — — 4- — + + — — — 48. _ + — + + — — — — — — — — 4- — — 4- - 4- 49- 4- + — + + — — + 4- — + + — 4- — — — 4- 4- 5°- + + — + + — — — — — + 4- — 4- + — — — SI- + + — — — — 4- — 4- + — + 4- 4- + 4- + 4- 52- + — + + + + — — + 4- 4- + 4- + 4- + — 53- ■ ■ • Positive corres pondences spondence 252 263 Positive < Negative orrespondences . . correspondences . . 256 Negative corre . . . -S. . 2S9 Zero corresDondences . . 5 Zerc ) correspondences . . 5 Deg ree of Correspondence . . — .( 321 Degree of Correspondence . — .006 APPENDIX 83 Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement OF Specie and Legal Tenders in Chicago Clearing House Banks for — SECOND week following third week following Week *"* M + + + + + M + _ + + + + + + + + — + + + — + + + + + — + + — — + + + — + + — — + — + + — + — — + — + — — — + — + — + — + — — — + — + — + + + — — — + — + + — + + — + + — — + + + + — — — + — — + — — — + — + — — — — — + + + — + — — — — — — — + — + — + — + — + — + + — + — — + + — — + + + — — — + — — + — + — — + — — — + + — — + — + + + — — — — + — — + + — + — + — + — — + + + + + + + + + — + — + + + + — + + + + — + — + + + — — — — — — — + — + — — — — — — + + — — — — — — + — + + + + + + — + + + + + — + + — + + + — + + — — — + + + + — + + + — + — + — — + — — — + — + + — + — — + — — + + + + — — + + — + + — + + — — + + + — — + — — — + + — + — + — — + — — + — — — + — — + — — — — — + + — + — — — — — + + — — + — + — — + + — — + + + + + — — — — + + — — — — — + — — — + — — + — — — — — — — + — + — — — + — + + — + + + — — + + — + + + + + — — + — + — — + — — + — — + + — — + — — + — + — — — — — + — — — + + + — — — + — + — — — — — — — + + + — — + — + — — — + — + + + + — + + — + — — + + + — — + — — — — — + + — — + — + — + + + + — + — + + — + — + + — + — + + + + + + — — — — + — + + + — + — — + + — — — — — + — + + — — — + — + + + — — + — — 4- — + + — — — + + + + — + + — — + + — + + — — + — — + — + + + + + — — + — — — — + — — + + — + + — — + + + + + — + + + — + — + + + + — — — — + + — — + + + — + + — — + — + — + — + — — — + — + — + + — — — — + + — — — — + — — — + + — — — + + + — — + + + — — — — — — — + + — + — + — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — + + 4- — — — — + + — — + + + + + — + + — — — + + + — — + — + — + — + + + — + + + + — — + + + — + — + + + — + + + + + — — + + + — — + + — — + + — + — + + — — — + — — + — + — — + — — — — + + + + + — + — — + + — + — + + — + + — + — — — + + + + + — — + + — — — — + — — + + + + — — + — — — 4- + + — — — — + — — — — — — — — + + — — — — — — + + + — — — + — + — + + — — + + + — — — + + + — + — + + — — — + + — + + — + — + + — + — + + + + + — — — + — + — — + + — + — — + + — — + — + — + + + — — — + — + — — + — + + + + + + — — + — — — — — + + + + + — — — — + + + + + + + + + + + + + — + + + + + + + + — Positive correspondences . . Negative correspondences . Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence. 24g Positive correspondences 3S7 26s Negative correspondences 256 5 Zero correspondences $ — .031 Degree of Correspondence +.ooa 84 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement OF Gross Deposits in Chicago Clearing House Banks for — SECOND WEEK PREVIOUS PREVIOUS WEEK Week 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 5° 51 52 53 - + - - + + + - + + - + - + + - + + - + + + - + - + + - + + + - + - + - + + + - + - + + - + + + + - + + + + + + - H - + - 4- + + o + + + - + + + + + - - + + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + - + - - + + + - + + + - + - + - + + - + - + - + + - + + + + - + - - + + + + + + + - + + + - + + + + + + - + - - + + + + - + + + + - - + + + + + + + + - + + + + + - - + - + + - - + + + + + + + + - - + - + + o — — + - + + + - - + + - - + + + + + - + + + + + + + + - - + — + - + - + + + + - + + - + + - + + - — + + + + + + + + + -\ — + + - + + - + + + — - + + - + - + + + + + - - - + + + + - + - + + - + + + - + - + - + Positive correspondences . . Negative correspondences . Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence . + H + - + 248 268 3 -■039 - + + + + + + - + + + + - + - - + + + + - - + + + - + - - - + + + + - - - + + + + + + + + - - + + + - + - + + - + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + + + - + + + -- + + + + - + - + + + + + + + - + + - + - + - + + + + + + + +- + - + + - + + - + - + - + - + - + + - + + + + + + - - + - + + + - + + + + - + + - + + + + - + _ + + + + + 0+ + + -+ + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + -+ + - - + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + - - + + + + + + + +0- + + - + - + + + + + + - + - + + + + + + +- + + + - - +- + + + + + - - + + + + - + - - - + + + - + + + + + + - + - + + + + + - + - + + - + + - + + + - - + + + - + + - + + + + - + + + - o + - + + + -+0 - — + + + + + + - + + + — + - + + 4- H + ---- + + + + -- + + + -- 1- + + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + - + + + + Positive correspondences 261 Negative correspondences 256 Zero correspondences 3 Degree of Correspondence + . 010 APPENDIX 85 Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement of Gross Deposits in Chicago Clearing House Banks for — SAME week following week second week following O M « 1/^ vO e^ 00 + + - - + + + ++++++ + + + + - + + o +- + + + - + + + + - + + + + + + - + + + + + ++++++ - + + 9 lO II 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 SI 52 53 Positive correspondences. . . Negative correspondences. . Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence . - + - + - + - + + - + - + - + - - - + - + + + - + - + - + + + - + + - + + + - - - + + + + - + + - + + - + - + - -+ + + -+ + + + - - + + - + + - - + + + + - + -+ + + - + - - + - + - + + + - - + + o + + - - - + + - + + - + + + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + + - + + + + + - + + + - + + + o + + + + + + + + - + - + + — + - + + + + - + - + - + + + + - + - + + - + + - - + + + - + + - + + - + + + - + + - + + + - + + + + + + + + - + - - + — - - + + + + - + - - + - + + + - + + - + - - - - + + - + - + + + + - + - + + - - o + + - + - - + + - + + - + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + + - - - + - + - - + - - + + + + + + - + + + - + + + + + + + + - + + + - - + - + - - + + - + + + - - + + - - - + - + + - + + + + + + - + - + + + - + - - - + + + - + + - + + + - + - + + + + + + - - + - + + - - + - - + + - - - + - - -+ o + + + - + + - + - - + - - + + + - + - + - + + + - - + - - + + + - + - - + - + - - - + + + + + + + - - + - + + + - - + + - + + - + - - + + + + + + - + + - + - + - - + - - + - - + - + — + - - - + + - + - - + - - + + + — - + - + - + - + - + + - - + - - + + + + - - + + + + + + - +++-+- 253 Positive correspondences . . 264 Negative correspondences. 3 Zero correspondences , — .02I Degree of Correspondence . - - + + - + + + - + + - - + - + - + + - + + + + + - - - - + + + - + + - + - + - + - + + + + + + + + + o - + + + - + + + - - - + - + - + - + + - 26s 232 3 .+.02S - + + + + - + + + + + + - + - - + + - + + - + - + - + - + + + - + - + - - + - + - + - + - + + + + - - + o — — - + + - + - + + + + — + + - + - - - - + + - - - + - + - + + + + + - - - + - - - + + + + + + + - + + - + - - - + - + - + - + - - + - + + + + + + + - + - + + - - + + + - + - + + + + - + + + - + + + + - + - + + - + - + - + - - - + - - + + - - + + + + + — + + - - + + - + + + + - + + - + + - + + - + + + + - + + + - - + - - + + - - + - + + + + - + + + + + - + + - + - + + + + - - + - + + + - + + - + - + - + - - + - - + - + - + - - + + - + + - - - + - + - - + + + - - + - + + + + + + - + — + + + + + - - + - + - - + + + - + - + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + - - + - + — - + - + + - + - o + + + + - - + - + + - - + + + - + - + — + + + + - + - + - + + - + + - - + - - + - - + + + + -+ o + - - + - + + - + + + + + - - + - + + + + + + + + - Positive correspondences .... 264 Negative correspondences .. . 252 Zero correspondences 3 Degree of Correspondence. . . +.023 86 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement of Specie and Legal Tenders in the Chicago Clearing House Banks for — second month previous previous month same month Jan. + - + + - Feb. - + + + + Mar. + -\ h - Apr. + - May + + + June - + + + - + July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. + + + - + + Positive correspondences. . Negative correspondences . Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence . -+ + - - + + + + + -- + + + - + + + + + - + +-+ + -- + + + + - + -+ + + + + + + + --+ +- + + - + - + + + + + + - + - + --++ - + + + + + + +- + - + + + + -+ -+ + -+ + --+ + + - ++-- + + + + ---+ +-- + -- + + -- 55 Positive correspondences. ... 64 62 Negative correspondences ... S4 o Zero correspondences o . — . 060 Degree of Correspondence . . . + . 085 + + - + + -+ + + + - + + + -- + + -- + + + + + + + - + - + - -- + - + - + + + + - + + -+ + + + + + - + + + + + + + - + + - + + + -- - + + - + + -- + - + + -+ + + - - + - + + + + 4- Positive correspondences 64 Negative correspondences SS Zero correspondences o Degree of Correspondence. . . . +.076 following month second month following -- + - + - + - + Jan. Feb. + - - - - Mar. + + + - - Apr. - + + + - May + - + + + June — + + + — July + + - - - Aug. + - - + + Sept. — — — — — Oct. + - + + + Nov. + + - + - Dec. + + + + + Positive correspondences Negative correspondences Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence + + + + + - + - + + + + - + + - + + - + + + + + + - + - + + + + + + 63 SS o +.068 - + - - + - + + + + - + - - + + + - + + + ----- - + + + - + --- - + + + -- + + - ---- + - + - + + + + - + + + + + + - + + + - - + - + - - + + - - + + + - + - + - + Positive correspondences . . Negative correspondences . Zero correspondences Degree of Correspondence . -.128 Correspondence of the Movement of Speculative Prices with the Movement of Gross Deposits in the Chicago Clearing House Banks for — previous month same month following month so t^ 00 t~ 00 Jan. -- + - + - + Feb. - + - + + + + + - Mar. - + + - + - + + - + Apr. - + + + - + + May \ hH + June + + + + - + - + - + July + + + + + - + + Aug. + - + + + Sept. + + + Oct. + + + - + + + -+ + Nov. + + + + + Dec. 1 \ h Positive correspondences 61 Negative correspondences 57 Zero correspondences o Degree of Correspondence ....+. 034 - + - + + - + + + - + + - + + + + + - - + + - + + +-+ + - + + + + + + + -- + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + - + + + - + + -- + + - + + + + h + + + - + -- - + + - + + - + - + - + --+ + + + - + -- + Positive correspondences .... 69 Negative correspondences ... 50 Zero correspondences o Degree of Correspondence . . . +. 160 + + - + + - + + + - + + - + - + - + + -- + -- + + - + + + +- + + + + + -+ + - + + + - + + + + + + + + + -+ + - + + + -+ + + + -- + -- + + - + + -- + + - + + - + + - + + + + - + + + Positive correspondences .... 66 Negative correspondences. . . 52 Zero correspondences o Degree of Correspondence. . . +.119 APPENDIX 87 CORRESPOKDENCE OF THE MOVEMENT OF WHOLESALE PRICES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE Amount of Money in Circulation in the United States for — SECOND month PREVIOUS Ti/r««+T, o 000 oooooo':;':; PREVIOUS MONTH + + - + + - + + - O - + 0-1 + - + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + + - + - + - + - + + + — + + - o + + - + + + o Positive correspondences 80 Negative correspondences S3 Zero correspondences 10 Degree of Correspondence + • 189 Jan. . . - + + + + Feb... + - + + + - Mar. . + + + - + + Apr. . . . - + - - + May. .- + - + - + June. . + - + July.. + + Aug. . . + - + + + Sept.. , - + + + Oct.. . + + + Nov. . . + + + + Dec. . . . - + + - + + - + + + + - + + + + + + - + o + - + - - + - + + - + + + + —00 + + + o o + + + - - + - + + - + + + - + + - + + - o - + + + + — + + + + - + ++++++ + + — + - + + + — + + + - o + - + Positive correspondences 83 Negative correspondences so Zero correspondences 10 Degree of Correspondence +.231 SAME MONTH lV4^,^Tifli 00000000 00"M iVLonLn ooCTO^oioiOiOi o»o>o* o Jan... - + + + - + + Feb. ..+- + + + -0+-0+ + Mar. . -\ + + +0+ + - + + Apr. .. o-H 1- + + - May. . - + + - + - + + + + + - June. .+ + + - + + + - + + July. . - + -0 - + + - + Aug. .. 1 o + -\ ho Sept. .- + + +0 + + + + + + + Oct. .. + 0+ + + + + + -0 Nov. . +H 1- + + — o H — Dec. . - + H + H +0 Positive correspondences 76 Negative correspondences 55 Zero correspondences 12 Degree of Correspondence + . 147 FOLLOWING MONTH - + + + - o + + - + + + + +0+ + + + + - + -0+ + + - + 0+ + -H + + + - 0-++ - + + + + + o - + 0+ + + + + - + + +0 + + + + + + + + 0+ + + + + + -0 + + + + -0 - + + — + + + Positive correspondences 73 Negative correspondences 58 Zero correspondences 11 Degree of Correspondence + . io6 88 MONEY AND PRICES Correspondence of the Movement of Wholesale Prices in the United States WITH Movement of Circulation of Money for — Per Capita Total ad Year Previous Same Following Previous Same Following 2d Year Previous Year Year Year Year .1867. Year Year Year Following — + '.'.'. .1868. + — — + + ... .1869. . . . — + — — + + — . . . .1870. ... + — — — + + — — . . . .1871. . . . — — — — + + — .1872. ... + + + + _ + — .1873. — — — + _ + — + ... .1874. — + + + 4- + ... .1875. . . . — + + + + + + ... .1876. ... + + + — + + + + ... .1877. ... + + — + + + — . . . .1878. ... + — — — + + + + — — . . . .1879. .1880. .1881. .1882. ... + — — — _ J + + + ... + ... J + + + - r ... + + + — + + — + ... .1883. — — — — _ — + — . . . .1884. . . . — — — + _ + — + ... .1885. — + — + + — .1886. — + — + — + + ... .1887. — + + + + + — . . . .1888. ... + + + + o o o o .1889. ... .0 — + — — .1890. — — — — + — — — . . . .1891. . . . — — — + _ — + ... .1892. . . . — + — _ + — .1893. — + + _ + + ... .1894. ... + + + + + + ... .1895. . . . — + + — + + — .1896. ... + + — + + — — .1897. ... + — — — + + + ... .1898. ... + + + + + + + + ... .1899. ... + + + + + + + + ... .1900. ... + +. + + — — — — .1901. . . . — — — — + + + + ... .1902. ... + + + + + + + + ... .1903. ... + 4- + + _ — — — . . . .1904. — — — — + + + + ... ■ 1905 • ... + + + + + + + + ... . 1906. ... + + + + + + + + ... .1907. ... + + + + — — — . . . .1908. . . . — — — — + + + — . . . .1909. ... + + + + + + — — . . . .1910. ... + + + + + .1911 . — — (For 1879-1911 take the part of the table below the heavy line.) APPENDIX 89 Correspondence with Per Capita Circulation 1867-1911 SECOND YEAK PREVIOUS Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . PREVIOUS YEAR Positive correspondences 27 Zero correspondences i Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences 15 Degree of Correspondence : + • 279 SAME YEAR Negative correspondences 16 Degree of Correspondence + . 250 FOLLOWING YEAR Negative correspondences 20 Degree of Correspondence + .047 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences. . ,. Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . 1879-1911 SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS Negative correspondences 14 Degree of Correspondence +-033 PREVIOUS YEAR 18 Negative correspondences 12 Degree of Correspondence + . 194 SAME YEAR Positive correspondences 19 Zero correspondences i Negative correspondences 12 Degree of Correspondence + • 219 FOLLOWING YEAR Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . 16 Negative correspondences 14 Degree of Correspondence + .065 Correspondence with Total Circulation 1867-igii PREVIOUS YEAR Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . SAME YEAR Positive correspondences 23 Zero correspondences 1 Negative correspondences 20 Degree of Correspondence + .068 FOLLOWING YEAR Positive correspondences 23 Negative correspondences 19 Zero correspondences i Degree of Correspondence + -093 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . SECOND YEAR FOLLOWING Negative correspondences 20 Degree of Correspondence + ■ 024 Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . Positive correspondences . Zero correspondences . . . . 1879-1911 PREVIOUS YEAR IS Negative correspondences . Degree of Correspondence . SAME YEAR 18 Negative correspondences 13 I Degree of Correspondence + . is6 FOLLOWING YEAR 18 Negative correspondences. I Degree of Correspondence + . 194 SECOND YEAR FOLLOWING Positive correspondences 17 Negative correspondences 12 Zero correspondences i Degree of Correspondence + . 167 I RETURN TO the circulation desk of any University of California Library or to the NORTHERN REGIONAL LIBRARY FACILITY BIdg. 400, Richmond Field Station University of California Richmond, CA 94804-4698 ALL BOOKS MAY BE RECALLED AFTER 7 DAYS 2-month loans may be renewed by calling (510)642-6753 1-year loans may be recharged by bringing books to NRLF Renewals and recharges may be made 4 days prior to due date DUE AS STAMPED BELOW FEB 21 1994 1 I I Gaylamount \ Pamphlet > Binder \ Gaylord Bros., Inc. I Stockton, Calif. T.M.Reg. U.S. Pat. Off. YU 2At vJ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY