LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA. GIFT OF Class POPULATION': I T S LAW OF INCREASE. B Y XATHAX ALLEX, M. I)., LOWELL, MASS. READ AT THE MEETING OF THE WESTERN SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION, IN CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 12, 1868- LOWELL, MASS. : STONE & HUSE, T*OOK AND JOB PRINTERS, NO. '21 CENTRAL STREET. 1870. POPUL ATIOIsr : ITS LAW OF INCREASE BY NATHAN ALLEN, M. D., LOWELL, MASS. READ AT THE MEETING OF THE WESTERN SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION, IN CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 12, 1868. LOWELL, MASS. : STONE & HUSE, BOOK AND JOB PRINTERS, NO. 21 CENTRAL STREET. 1870. \\t> i POPULATION -ITS LAW OF INCREASE. READ AT THE MEETING OF THE WESTERN SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION IN CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 12, 1868.* THE increase of Population as governed by fixed laws or prin- ciples seems never to have attracted any public attention till near the close of the Eighteenth Century. The, French Revolution prevailing at that period, gave rise to some bold and speculative inquiries con- cerning the progress and perfectibility of man, the origin and extent of human government, as well as the existence and power of a Creator of all things. In 1793, William Godwin published a work upon Political Justice, respecting the unequal distribution of the good things of this life and the causes of so much poverty, misery and suffering in the world, which must, in the very nature of things, seemingly cast reflections either upon human or divine government. The Rev. Thomas R. Malthus, connected at that time with the University of Cambridge, in an accidental conversation with a friend in respect to the merits of Godwin's views, was prompted to make some criticisms which led to the publication, in 1798, of an "Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society" This Essay was afterwards greatly improved, and passed through several editions in the form of two large, octavo volumes. The principles embodied in this work, had at the time, and have since had a most powerful influence. While on the one hand they were readily adopted by large numbers, and have been extensively incorporated into works upon Political Economy, on the other hand, they have been controverted by many of the ablest minds in Great Britain. From the year 1800 to 1830, several works were published, * In a discussion at the close of this convention upon the publication of its proceedings, the Rev. Edward Bcecher, D. D., in a speech advocating the measure, remarked that, " The papers read were generally good, but that of Dr. Allen's on the increase of Population, if published at an expense of twenty thousand dollars, would return one thousand fold, so great are the underlying principles of our natural and national life so ably treated in that document." 236823 opposing, criticising and condemning the doctrines of Malthus in the severest way. At the same time many elaborate articles appeared in the quarterly reviews and monthly magazines upon Population, some of them approving and commending these doctrines, while others exposed and denounced them in the most bitter manner. In 1841, Thomas Doubleday published in London a work enti- tled, " The True Law of Population shown to be connected with the Food of the People /" and, in 1852, Herbert Spencer published in the Westminster Review an able article, introducing a " New Theory of Population]" 1 deduced from the general law of animal fertility. Neither of these theories has ever made a very great impression on the public, or commanded the confidence of those most interested in this subject. While the doctrines of Malthus have been gradually losing their hold on the public mind, and most important changes in Society have been taking place in respect to the progress, character and destiny of the race, no attention, comparatively, has of late been given to the laws which directly regulate its increase. In fact, for the last thirty years there has been no general or thorough discussion of this subject. But there are new agencies coming into existence, and changes occurring in the status of different communities and nations, that will ere long compel attention to this most important question. Facts connected with emigration and the intermixture of races, together with census returns, registration reports, mortuary statistics,