THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS AN ESSAY ON THE APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICS TO THE MORAL SCIENCES by F. Y. EDGEWOBTH, M.A. BABRISTEB-AT-LAW MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS AN ESSAY ON THE APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICS TO THE MORAL SCIENCES BT F. Y. EDGEWORTH, M.A. BARRISTtH- AT- LAW LONDON C. KEGAN PAUL & CO., 1 PATERNOSTER SQUARE 1881 ^yyi ' INTEODUCTOBY ntacmmov of CONTENTS. Mathematical Psychics may be divided into two parts — Theoretical and Applied. In the First Part (1) it is attempted to illustrate the possibility of Mathematical reasoning without numerical data (pp. 1-7) ; without more precise data than are afforded by estimates of quantity of pleasure (pp. 7-9). (2) An analogy is suggested between the Principles of Greatest Happiness, Utilitarian or Egoistic, which con- stitute the first principles of Ethics and Economics, and those Principles of Maximum Energy which are among the highest generalisations of Physics, and in virtue of which mathematical reasoning is applicable to physical phenomena quite as complex as human life (pp. 9-15). The Calculus of Pleasure (Part 11.) may be divided into two species — the Economical and the Utilitarian ; the principle of division suggesting an addition to Mr. Sidgwick's 'ethical methods' (p. 16). The first species of Calculus (if so ambitious a title may for brevity be applied to short studies in Mathe- matical Economics) is developed from certain Definitions VI INTEODUCTORY DESCRIPTION OF CONTENTS. of leading conceptions, in particular of those connected with Competition (pp. 17—19). Then (a) a mathematical theory of Contract unqualified by Competition is given (pp. 20-30). (13) A mathematical theory of Contract de- ter mined by Competition in a perfect Market is given, or at least promised (pp. 30-33, and pp. 38-42). Reference is made to other mathematical theories of Market, and to Mr. Sidgwick's recent article on the * Wages-Fund ' (pp. 32, 33, and Appendix V.) (y) attention is concen- trated on the question — What is a perfect Market? It is argued that Market is imperfect. Contract is indeter- minate in the following cases : — (i.) Wlien the number of competitors is limited (pp. 37, 39). (ii.) In a certain similar case hkely to occur in con- tracts for personal service (pp. 42, 46). (i. and II.) When the articles of contract are not perfectly divisible (p. 42, 46). (ill.) In case of Combination^ Unionism ; in which case it is submitted that (in general and abstractly speaking) unionists stand to gain in senses contradicted or ignored by distinguished economists (pp. 44, 47, 48). (iv.) In a certain case similar to the last, and likely to occur in Co-operative Association (pp. 45, 49). Tlie indeterminateness likely from these causes to aflect Commercial Contracts, and certainly afiecting aU sorts of Political Contracts, appears to postulate a prin^ ciple of arbitration (pp. 50—52). It is argued from mathematical considerations that the basis of arbitration between contractors is the greatest possible iitility of all concerned; the Utihtarian first principle, which can of course afford only a general INTRODUCTORY DESCRIPTION OF CONTENTS. VU direction — yet, as employed by Bentham's school, has afforded some direction in practical affairs (pp. 53-56). The Economical thus leads up to the Utilitarian species of Hedonics ; some studies in which already published ^ (under the title of ' Hedonical Calculus ' — the species being designated by the generic title) are reprinted here by the kind permission of the Editor of * Mind.' Of the Utilitarian Calculus (pp. 56-82) the central conception is Greatest Happiness^ the greatest possible sum-total of pleasure summed through all time and over all sentience. Mathematical reasonings are em- ployed partly to confirm Mr. Sidgwick's proof that Greatest Happiness is the end of right action ; partly to deduce middle axioms, means conducive to that end. This deduction is of a very abstract, perhaps only nega- tive, character ; negativing the assumption that Equality is necessarily imphed in Utilitarianism. For, if sentients differ in Capacity for happiness — under similar circum- stances some classes of sentients experiencing on an average more pleasure {e.g. of imagination and sym- pathy) and less pain (e.g. of fatigue) than others — there is no presumption that equality of circumstances is the most felicific arrangement ; especially when account is taken of the interests of posterity. Such are the principal topics handled in this essay or tentative study. Many of the topics, tersely treated in the main body of the work, are more fully illustrated in the course of seven supplementary chapters, or APPENDICES, entitled : • Mind, July 1879. viii INTRODUCTOEY DESCRIPTION OP CONTENTS. PAQB I. On TJNiojMfajiCAL Mathematics .... 83-93 II. On the Importance op Hedonical Calculus . 93-98 in. On Hedonimetrt 98-102 IV. On Mtxkd Modes of Utilitaklanism . . . 102-104 V. On Pkofessob Jevons's FoBMULiE of Exchange . 104-116 VI. On the EreOBS of the ayewfitrpjirol . . . 116-125 VII. On the Pbesent Crisis in Ireland . . . 126-148 Discussions too much broken up by this arrangement are re-united by references to the principal headings, in the Index ; which also refers to the definitions of terms used in a technical sense. The Index also contains the names of many eminent men whose theories, bearing upon the subject, have been noticed in the course of these pages. Dissent has often been expressed. In so terse a composition it has not been possible always to express, what has always been felt, the deference due to the men and the diffidence proper to the subject. MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. ON THE APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICS TO THE MORAL SCIENCES. The application of mathematics to Beliefs the calcuhis of Probabihties, has been treated by many distinguished writers ; the calculus of Feeling, of Pleasure and Pain, is the less famihar, but not in reality ^ more paradoxical subject of this essay. The subject divides itself into two parts ; concerned respectively with principle and practice, root and fruit, the apphcability and the apphcation of Mathematics to Sociology. PAET I. In the first part it is attempted to prove an affinity between the moral and the admittedly mathematical sciences from their resemblance as to (1) a certain general complexion, (2) a particidar salient feature. (1) The science of quantity is not ahen to tlie study of man, it will be generally admitted, in so far as actions and effective desires can be numerically measured by way of statistics — that is, very far, as Professor Jevons ^ anticipates. But in so far as our data may consist of ^ Cf. JevoDS, Theory, p. 9. ' Introduction to Theory of Political Economy. 2 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. estimates other than numerical^ observations that some conditions are accompanied with greater or less pleasure than others, it is necessary to reahse that mathematical reasoning is not, as commonly ^ supposed, limited to subjects where numerical data are attainable. Where there are data which^ though not numerical are quan- titative — for example, that a quantity is greater or less than another, increases or decreases, is positive or nega- tive, a maximum or minimum ^ there mathematical reasoning is possible and may be indispensable. To take a trivial instance : a is greater than h, and h is greater than c, therefore a is greater than c. Here is mathematical reasoning apphcable to quantities which may not be susceptible of numerical evaluation. The following instance is less trivial, analogous indeed to an important social problem. It is required to distribute a given quantity ? of fuel, so as to obtain the greatest possible quantity of available energy, among a given set of engines, which differ in efficiency — efficiency being thus defined : one engine is more efficient than another if, whenever the total quantity of fuel consumed by the former is equal to that consumed by the latter, the total quantity of energy yielded by the former is greater than •that yielded by the latter. In the distribution, shall a larger portion of fuel be given to the more efficient engines ? always, or only in some cases ? and, if so, in what sort of cases ? Here is a very simple problem involving no numerical data, yet ' The popular view pervades much of what. Mill (in his Loyic), after Comte, says about Mathematics applied to Sociology. There is a good expression of this view in the Saturday Revieio (on Professor Jevons's Theory, November 11, 1871.) The view adopted in these pages is expressed by Coumot, Recherchfs.) 2 Or, a given quantity pei- unit of time, with corresponding modification of definition and problem. UNNUJfERICAL MATHEMATICS. 3 requiring, it may be safely said, mathematics for its complete investigation. The latter statement may be disputed in so far as such questions may be solved by reasoning, which, though not symboHcal, is strictly mathematical ; answered more informally, yet correctly, by undis- ciphned common sense. But, firstly, the advocate of mathematical reasoning in social science is not con- cerned to deny that mathematical reasoning in social, as well as in physical, science may be divested of symbol. Only it must be remembered that the question how far mathematics can with safety or propriety be divested of her pecuHar costume is a very deUcate question, only to be decided by the authority and in the presence of Mathematics herself. And, secondly, as to the suf- ficiency of common sense, the worst of such unsynibolic, at least unmethodic, calculations as we meet in popular economics is that they are apt to miss the character- istic advantages of deductive reasoning. He that will not verify his conclusions as far as possible by mathe- matics, as it were bringing the ingots of common sense to be assayed and coined at the mint of the sovereign science, will hardly realize the full value of what he holds, will want a measure of what it will be worth in however shghtly altered circumstances, a means of conveying and making it current. When the given conditions are not sufficient to determinate the problem — a case of great importance in Pohtical Economy — the dy€w/x€T/)i7Tos is less hkely to suspect this deficiency, less competent to correct it by indicating what con- ditions are necessary and sufficient. All this is evident at a glance through the instrument of mathematics, but to the naked eye of -'common sense partially and ob- 4 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS- sciirely, and, as Plato says of unscientific knowledge, in a state between genuine Being and Not-Being. The preceding prol^lem, to distribute a given quan- tity of material in order to a maximum of energy, with its starting point loose quantitative relations rather than numerical data — its slippery though short path almost necessitating the support of mathematics — illustrates fairly well the problem of utilitarian distribution.^ To illustrate the economical problem of exchange, the maze of many dealers contracting and competing with each other, it is possible to imagine ^ a mechanism of many parts where the law of motion, which particular part moves off with which, is not precisely given — with symbols, arbitrary functions, representing not merely not nu- merical knowledge but ^ ignorance — where, though the mode of motion towards equilibrium is indeterminate, the position of equihbrium is mathematically deter- mined. Examples not made to order, taken from the common stock of raatliematical physics, ^vill of course not fit so exactly. But they may be found in abundance, it is submitted, illustrating- the property under consideration — mathematical reasoning without numerical data. In Hydrodynamics, for instance, we have a Thomson or Tait * reasoning ' princii)les ' for ' determining P and Q icill be given later. In the meantime it is obvious that each decreases as X increases. Hence the equations of motion sliow ' — and he goes on to draw a., conclusion of ' See p. G4. ^ See p. 34. ' lynontfiim vf Co-ordinate* (Thoinsou and Tait, Nnturtd mimophy, 2iid edition), is appropriate in many soeial problems where we only know in part. '' Thomson and Tait, Treatise on Nntxiral l*hilo$ophy, p. 320, 2nd edition. The italics, which are ours, call attention to the unnumerical, louse quantita- tire, rdatitm whieh rojiatitntes tlie datum oi'tlie mathematieal reasoninp. UNNUMERICAL JtfATHEMATICS. 5 momentous interest that balls (properly) projected in an infinite incompressible fluid will move as if they were attracted to each other. And generally in the higher Hydrodynamics, in that boundless *ocean of perfect fluid, swum through by vortices, where the deep first principles of Physics are to be sought, is not a similar unnumeirical^ or hi/per arithmetical method there pursued ? If a portion of perfect fluid so moves at any time that each particle has no motion of rotation, then that portion of the fluid Avill retain that property for all time ^ ; here is no application of the numerical measuring-rod. No doubt it may be objected that these hydro- dynamical problems employ some precise data ; the very definition of Force, the conditions of fluidity and con- tinuity. But so also have our social problems some precise data : for example, the property of uniformity of price in a market ; or rather the (approximately realised) conditions of which that property is the de- ducible effect, and which bears a striking resemblance to the data of hydrodynamics : ^ (1) the fulness of the market: that there continues to be up to the conclusion of the deal- ing an indefinite number of dealers ; (2) the fluidity of the market, or infinite dividedness of the dealers' interests.. Given this property of uniform price, Mr. Marshall and! M. Walras deduce mathematically, though not arith-* metically, an interesting theorem, which Mill and Thorn- ton failed with unaided reason to discern, though they were quite close to it — the theorem that the equation of supply to demand, though a necessary, is not a suffi- cient condition of market price. To attempt to select representative instances from each 1 Stokfls, Mathttnafkal Paptn, p. 112. » See r- IS- 6 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. recognised branch of matlieniatical inquiry would exceed tlie limits of tins paper and the requirements of the argu- inent. It must suffice, in conclusion, to direct atten- tion to one species of Mathematics which seems largely affected with the property under consideration, th# Calculus of Maxima and Minima, or (in a wide sense) of Variations, The criterion of a maximum ^ turns, not upon the amount, but upon the sigyi of a certain quan- tity.''^ We are continually concerned^ with the ascer- tainment of a certain loose quantitative relation, the decrease-of-rate-of -increase of a quantity. Now, this is the very quantitative relation which it is proposed to enij)loy in mathematical sociology ; given in such data as the law of diminii^hing returns to capital and labour, the law of diminishing utility, the law of increasing fatigue; the very same irregular, unsquared material which constitutes the basis of the Economical and the Utilitarian Calculus. Now, it is remarkable that the principal inquiries in Social Science may be viewed as mcuvimum-prohlems. For Economics investijrates the arrangements between agents each tending to his own maximum utility; and Politics and (Utilitarian) Ethics investigate the arrange- ments which conduce to the maximum sum total of ' Ma.x-imu7n in ihls paper is employed axjcording to the context for (1) 3frtx?M/wwj in the proper mat hemntical sense; (2) G r eat st possible; (3) tta- tionanj ; (4) where mmimum (or leoM jwssible) might have been expected ; upon the principle that even' minimum is the correlative of a maximum. Thus Thomson's Minimum tlieorem is correlated with Bertrand's Maximtmi thforem. (Watson and Burhury.) This liberty is taken, not only for brevity, but also for the sake of a certain suggestiveness. * Stationary^ for instance, fails to suggest the siipcrlativcness which it connotes. •* The second terra of Variation. It may be objected that the otJier con- dition of a maximum equation of the first terhi to zero is of a more precise characler. St^e, however, Appendix I., p. 92. ^ E.g., Todhunter's Mcsearches on Caladnt of Variations, pp. 21-30, 80, 117, 286, &c. HEDONIMETRY. 7 Utility. Since, then, Social Science, as compared with the Calculus of Variations, starts from similar data — loose quantitative relations — and travels to a similar con- clusion — determination of maximum — why should it not pursue the same metjiod, Mathematics ? There remains the objection that in Physical Calculus there is always (as in the example quoted above from Thomson and Tait) a potentiality, an expectation, of measurement ; while Psychics want the first condition of calculation, a unit. The following ^ brief answer is diffidently offered. Utility, as Professor Jevons'^ says, has two dimen- sions, intensity and time. The unit in each dimension is the jusf perceivaBIe^ increment. The implied equation to each other of each m inimum ,gffl- inc apable of pro of. It resembles the equation to each other of undistinguishable events or cases,^ which con- stitutes the first principle of the mathematical calculus of belief. It is doubtless a principle acquired in the course of evolution. The implied equatabihty of time- intensity units, irrespective of distance in time and kind of pleasure, is still imperfectly evolved. Such is the unit 'of econojnical calculus. For moral calculus a further dimension is required ; to compare the happiness of one person with the happi- ness of another, and generally the happiness of groups Ij of different members and different average happiness. Such comparison can no longer be shirked, if there ' For a fuller discussion, see Appendix III. * In reference to Economics, Theory, p. 51 . •^^Cf. Wundt, Physiological PsycJtology ; below, p. 60. Our ' ebenmerk- if ' minim is to be regarded not as an infinitesimal differential, but as a ■1 , -mall difference ; a conception which is consistent with a (duly cau- ployment of infinitesimal notation. a sim^ lace, Essair—Probahilitics, p. 7. insta 8 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. is to be any systematic morality at all. It is postulated by distributive justice. It is postulated by the population question ; that horizon in which every moral prospect terminates ; which is presented to the far-seeing at every turn, on the most sacred and the most trivial occasions. You cannot spend sixpence utilitarianly, without having considered whether your action tends to increase the comfort of a limited number, or numbers with limited comfort ; without having compared such alternative utilities. T^ virtue oLjwhfrf-TITut is such comparison possible ? It is here submitted : ^"Yir^^^^i?a^ PTrppriPTipinnr a unit of plea«tire=mtensity during a unit of time ts to * counL-ibr_QneJJ — Etihty, then^has-4Ar«9 where it may be a condition of production that there should be three at least to each bargain. There will be observed a certain similarity between the relation of the first to the second condition, and that of the third to the fourth. The failure of the first involves the failure of the second, but not vice versa ; and the third and fourth are similarly related. A settlement is a contract which cannot be varied with the consent of all the parties to it. A final settlement is a settlement which cannot be varied by recontract within the field of competition. Contract is indeterminate when there are an indefinite number oi final settlements. ' This species of imperfection will not be explicitly treated here ; partly because it is perhaps of secondary practical importance : and partly because it has been ^sufficiently treated by Prof. Jevons {Theory, pp. 135-1^7). It is .important, as suggested in Appendix V., to distinguish the effects of this imperfection according as the competition is, or is not, supposed perfect in othei- respects. 20 MATHEMATICAL PSyCHICS. The PEOBLEM to which attention is specially directed in this introductory summary is : Hov:) far contract is indeterminate — an inquiry of more than theoretical im- portance, if it show not only that indeterminateness tends to prevent widely, but also in what direction an escape from its evils is to be sought. Demonstrations.^ — The general answer is — (a) Con- tract without competition is indeterminate, (/3) Contract with perfect competition is perfectly determinate, (7) Contract with more or less perfect competition is less or more indeterminate. (a) Let us commence with almost the simplest case of contract, — two individuals, X and Y, whose interest depends on two variable quantities, which they are agreed not to vary without mutual consent. Exchange of two commodities is a particular case of this kind of contract. Let x and y be the portions interchanged, as in Professor Jevons's example.^ Then the utility of one party, say X, may be written $1 (a — x) + Fj (y) ; and the utihty of the other party, say Y, $2 {^) + ^2 (^ ~" y) '■> where ^ and W are the integrals of Professor Jevons's symbols <^ and i/j. It is agreed that x and y shall be varied only by consent (not e.g. by violence). More generally. Let P, the utility of X, one party, = F(a?2/), and IT, the utility of Y, the other party, = $ [x y). If now it is inquired at what point they will reach equilibrium, one or botli refusing to move further, to what settlement they will consent ; the answer is in general that contract by itself does not supply sufRcient conditions to determinate the solution ; sup- plementary conditions as Avill appear being supplied by * Conclusions rather, the matheoiatical demoustration of which is not fully exhibited. ■^ Theory of Political Economy, 2nd ed., p. 107. PURE coNi'iL'^crr. 21 competition or ethical motives, Contract will supply only one condition (for the two variables), namely d^dn_d'Pdn pi I. da; dy ~ dy dx (corresponding to Professor Jevons's equation <^i {a- x) ^ 4,^{x) V*! {y) " V'2 (^ ~ y) Theory p. 103), which it is proposed here to inves- tigate. Consider P — F (^ 2/) = as a surface, P denoting the length of the ordinate drawn from any point on the plane of x y (say the plane of the paper) to the surface. Consider 11 — ^ [x y) similarly. It is required to find a point {xy) such that, in whatever direction we take an infinitely small step, P and U do not increase together, but that, while one increases, the other decreases. It may be shown from a variety of points of view that the locus of the required point is dV dn_ dF dn^Q. dx dy dy dx which locus it is here proposed to call the contract- curve. (1) Consider first in what directions X can take an indefinitely small step, say of length p, from any point {x y). Since the addition to P is p cos 6 being — d x^ and p sin 6 =^ dy^ it is evident that X will step only on one side of a certain line, the line of indifference^ as it might be caUed ; its equation being 22 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. And it is to be observed, in passing, that the direction in which X will prefer to move, the line of force or line of preference^ as it may be termed, is perpendicular to the line of indifference. Similar remarks apply to IT. If tlien we enquire in what directions X and Y will con- sent to move together^ the answer is, in any direction between their respective Unes of indifference, in a direc- tion positive as it may be called for both. At what ])oint then will they refuse to move at all ? When their lines of indifference are coincident (and lines of preference not only coincident, but in opposite directions) ; whereof the necessary (but not sufficient) condition is \dxJ ^dy-^ \dyJ \dx J (2) The same consideration might be thus put. Let tlie complete variation of P be DP=/o I ( -r- ) cos 6 + (-J-) sin 6 and similarly for IT. Then in general 6 can DP be taken, so that ^ — should be positive, say = g^^ and so P and 17 both increase together. dV _ i dn n dx d X tan. & = — -—=r ; — dF _ 2 ^ Ty ^ dy But this solution fails when I -r- ) ( ^— ) ^dx^ _^dx^ (dY\ " (dn\ ^dy^ \dy^ In fact, in this case =-— is the same for all directions. PURE CONTRACT. lio DP If, then, that common value of =— - is negative, motion is impossible in any direction. (3) Or, again, we may consider that motion is pos- sible so long as, one party not losing, the other gains. The point of equilibrium, therefore, may be described as a relative maximum, the point at which e.g. II being constant, P is a maximum. Put P = P — c (IT — IT'), where c is a constant and 21' is the supposed given value of II. Then P is a maximum only when whence we have as before the contract-curve. The same result would follow if we supposed Y in- duced to consent to the variation, not merely by the guarantee that he should not lose, or gain infinitesimally,- but by the understanding that he should gain sensiWy with the gains of P. For instance, let IT = FP where k is a constant, certainly not a very practicable condition. Or, more generally, let P move subject to the condition that DP = ^ X DIT, where ^ is a function of the co- ordinates. Then DP, subject to this condition, vanishes only when where c is a constant ; whence©(l.c)-o^(g) = 24 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. whence as before { -r- ) ( i- ^ ~ ( -r-) \ -r- )— ^^ ^djy \d y J ^dyJ ^dx ^ ■ No doubt the one theory which has been thus dif- ferently expressed could be presented by a professed mathematician more elegantly and scientifically. What appears to the writer the most philosophical presenta- tion may be thus indicated. (4) Upon the hypothesis above shadowed forth, ^ human action generally, and in particular the step taken by a contractor modifying articles of contract, may be regarded as the working of a gross force governed^ let on, and directed by a more delicate pleasure-force. From wliich it seems to follow upon general dynamical principles applied to this special case that equilibrium is attained when the total pleasure-energy of the contractors IS a maximum relative,"^ or subject, to conditions ; the conditions being here (i) that the pleasure-energy of X and Y considered each as a function of (certain values of) the variables x and y should be functions of the same values : in the metaphorical language above em- ployed that the charioteer-pleasures should drive their teams together over the plane of xy ; (ii) that the joint- team should never be urged in a direction con- trary to the preference^ of either individual; that the resultant line of force (and the momentum) of the gross, the chariot, system should be continually in- termediate between the (positive directions of the) lines of the respective pleasure-forces. [We may without disadvantage make abstraction of sensible mo- mentum, and suppose the by the condition joint- system to move towards equilibrium along a line of resultant gross force. Let it start from the origin. And ' See pp. 13-15. -' See note, p. 11. ' See p. 22. PURE (JONTIL\CT. 25 let ua employ an arbitrary function to denote the un- known principle of compromise between the parties ; sup- ' pose the ratio of the sines of angles made by the resultant line with the respective lines of pleasure- force.] Then, by reasoning different from the pre- ceding only in the point of view, it appears that the total utility of the system is a relative maximum at any point on the pure contract-curve. It appears from (1) and (2) there is a portion of the 1- © © 7 (S © = «' -- SI ^^ + , not therefore indicating immobility, au contraire, the impure (part of the) contract-curve, as it might be called. This might be illustrated by two spheres, each having the plane of the paper as a diametral plane. Tlie contract curve is easily seen to be the line joining tlie centres. Supposing that the distance between the centres is less than the less of the radii, part of the contract-curve is impure. If the index, as Mr. Marshall might call it, be placed anywhere in this portion it will run up to a centre. But between the centres the con- tract-curve is pure; the index placed anywhere in tliis portion is immovable ; and if account be taken of the portions of the spheres underneath the plane of the paper, tlie downward ordinates representing negatix'e pleasures^ similar statements hold, mutatis mutandis. It appears that the pure and impure parts of the contract-curve are # demarcated by the points where DP . . . DX^ =-— changes sign, that is (in general) where either y- or ■. — {d(T being an increment of the length of the a e CC, or rather, a certain portion of it which may be supposed to be wholly in the space between our perpendicular lines in a direction trending from south-east to north- west. This available portion of the contract-curve lies between two points, say t^o ^o north-west, and y^ ^^ south- east ; which are respectively the intersections witli the contract-curve of the curves of indifference^ for each party drawn through the origin. Thus the utility of the contract represented by vjo-^ois for Friday zero, or rather, the same as if there was no contract. At that point he would as soon be off with the bargain — work by himself perhaps. This simple case brings clearly into view the charac- teristic evil of indeterminate contract, deadlock, m\- decidable opposition of interests, a.KpLTo^'^ cpts koI rapaxn- It is the interest of both parties that tliere should be some settlement, one of the contracts repre- sented by the contract-curve between the limits. But which of these contracts is arbitrary in the absence of arbitration, the interests of the two adversd jmpiantia fronte all along the contract-curve, Y desiring to get as far as possible south-east towards yolo? X north-west toward yjoJ-q. And it further appears from the preceding analysis that in tlie case of any number of articles (for instance, Eobinson Crusoe to give Friday in the way of Industrial Partnership a fraction of the produce as well as wages, or again, arrangements about the mode of work), the contract-locus may still be represented as a sort of line, along which thfe pleasure-forces of the con- tractors are mutually antagonistic. An accessory evil of indeterminate contract is the ^ Sk-e p. 22. ■■' DemnFibenes, Be Corona. 30 MATIIKMATICAL PSYCHICS. tendency, greater than in a full market, towards dissimu- lation and objectionable arts of higgling. As Professor Jevons ^ says with reference to a similar case, ' Such a tran.saction must be settled upon other than strictly economical frrounds. . . . The art of bargaining consists in the buyer ascertaining the lowest price at which the seller is willing to part with his object, without dis- clo.sinii, if possible, the highest price which he, the buyer, is willing to give.' Compare Courcelle-Seneuil's^ account of the contract between a hunter and a wood- man in an isohited region. With tliis clogged and underground procedure is contrasted (/8) the smooth machinery ofthe open market. As Courcelle-Seneuil says, ' k mesure que le nombre des concurrents augraente, les conditions d'echange de- viennent plus necessaires, plus impersonelles en quelque sorte.' You might suppose each dealer to write down ^ his donand, how much of an article he would take at e;u*h price, without attenii)tnig to conceal his require- ments ; and these data having been furnished to a sort of market-macJiine, the price to be passionlessly evaluated. That contract in a state of perfect competition is determined by demand and supply isgenerally accepted, but is hardly to be fully understood without mathe- matics. The mathematics of a perfect market have been worked out by several eminent writers, in particular Messrs. Jevons, Marshall, Walras ; to whose varied cul- tivation of the mathematical science, Catallactics^ the reader is referred who wishes to dig down to the root of first principles, to trace out all the branches of a com- ])lete system, to gather ftuits rare and only to be reached by a mathematical substructure. • Theonj, p. \M. * Traits, book ii. ' Cf. Walras, Elements, Art. 50. PERFECT COMPETITION. 31 There emerges amidst the variety of construction and terminology ttoWcov ovoy^drcav ju,op<^77 ja/a, an essentially identical graphical form or analytical formula express- ing the equation of supply to demand ; whereof the simplest type, the catallactic molecule, as it might be called, is presented in the case above described in tlie definition of perfect competition.^ The famihar pair of equations is deduced ''^ by the present writer from the first principle : EquHibrium is attained when the ex- isting contracts can neither be varied without recontract with the consent of the existing parties, nor by recon- tract within the field of competition. The advantac^e of this general method is that it is appHcable to the par- ticular cases of imperfect competition ; where the con- ceptions of demand and siq^ply at a price are no lonn^er ap])ropriate. The catallactic molecule is compounded, when we suppose the Xs and Ys dealing in respect each of several articles Avitli several sets of Zs, As, Bs, &c. ; a case re- solved by M. Walras. Thus the actual commercial field might be represented by sets of entrepreneurs Xs, Ys, Zs, each X buyin"^ labour from among sets of labourers, As, Bs, Cs, use of capital from among sets of capitalists, Js, Ks, Ls, use of land from among sets of lando\vners, Ps, Qs, Es, and selling pro- ducts among a set of consumers consisting of the sum of the three aforesaid classes and the entrepreneurs of a species different from X, the Ys and Zs. As the demand of the labourer is deducible from considering his utility ' See p. 17. It muBt be carefully remembered that Prof. Jevons's Formulae of Exchange apply not to bare individuals, an isolated couple, but (as he himself sufficiently indicates, p. 98), to individuals clothed with the properties of a market, a typical couple (see Appendix V.). The isolated couple, the catallactic atmn, would obey our (a) law. ' See p. 38. 32 MATHEMATICAL ISVCHICS. as a function of wages received and work done, so tlie demand of the entrepreneur is deducible from consider- ing his utility as a function of (1) his expenditures on the agents of production; (2) his expenditures in the way of consumption ; (3) his receipts from sale of produce ; (4) his labour of superintendence. The last-named variable is not an article of contract ; but there beingf supposed a definiLc relation connecting the produce with agents of production and entrepreneur's labour, the ru,talla("tic. fwrmuhc become applicable. This is a very ai)stract representation (abstracting e.g. risk, foreign trade, the migration from one employment to another, e.q. Xs becoming Ys," (fcc), yet more concrete than that of M. Walras, who aj)parently makes the more abstract supposition of a sort of y'/vWio/z/t^^^i- entrepreneur, ' faisant^ )ii perte ni benefice!' From the point of view just readied may with ad- vantage be contem[)lated one of the domains most recently added to Economic Science — Mr. Sidgwick's contribution to the 'Fortnightly Eeview,' September, 1879. The indirectness of the relation betweeii wages and intereM which Mr. Sidgwick has so clearly demonstrated in words is self-evident in symbols. The predetej-minate- ?v.s,>,' of the iragefund, which has received its covp de grace from Mr. Sidgwick, must always, one would think, have appeared untenable from the humblest mathemati- cal point of view, the consideration of the simplest type ^ of perfect competition ; from which ^also it must be added tiiat Mr. Sidgwick's — perhaps inadvertent, perhaps here misinterpreted — statement, * that contract ' Th\9 permenbility between employments (such as explained in Econo)}ncs of Industry with reference to the supply of unskilled and skilled labour and of business power) tends to a level of utility. 2 Elements, Arts, "i;^!, 242, kc. ^ See pp. 17, 31. '• Fortmyhtly Rtvieir, It<70, pp. 410 (end) 411 (beginuiug). PERFECTT COMPETITION. 33 between employer and operative even in the case of what is here called ^ jc»^r/ (^2 ^2) = ^ (.2/ y'), provided that ^ ^ falls within the indifference-curve for Y drawn V2 2) through (I2 yz)- If otherwise, a slightly different system of equations must be employed. K now a third X and third Y (still equal-natured) be introduced into the field, the system can be worked down to a point ^33/3 ;^ whose conditions are obtained from those just written by substituting for -^~- -A. . For this represents the last point at which 2 Ys can re- contract with 3 Xs with advantage to all five. Analyti- - ' Compare the analysis in Appendix VII. 38 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. cal geometry will show that this point is lower down (in respect of the advantage of Y) than ^^ y^. In the hmit, when the Xs and Ys are indefinitely (equally) multiplied, we shall have {a/ 1/) coincident with (^^ y^), or as we may say for convenience (^ 77), satisfying one or other of the alternatives corresponding to those just mentioned. In case of the first alternative we have ^4>;(^,7) + ^*',(^,7) = For 4» (1 77) = (^' y) = * ( (1 + A) f (1 + h) rj). In the limiting case h is infinitesimal. Whence by dif- ferentiating the above equation is obtained. And the 1 ^ not falling within the indif- ference-curve of Y) is not to be distinguished from the first in the limiting case. If this reasoning does not seem satisfactory, it would be possible to give a more formal proof; bringing out the important result that the common tangent to both indillerence-curves at the point £ 13 is the vector from the origin. By a parity of reasoning it may be shown that, if the system had been started at the north-west extremity of (the available portion of) the contract-curve, it would have been worked down by competition between the Xs to tlie same point ; determined by the intersection with tiie contract-curve of ^F' .r + lyF'y = ; for the same j)oint is determined by the intersection of either curve with the contract-curve. For the three curves evidently intersect in the same point. Taking account of the two processes which have been described, the competing Ys being worked down for a certain distance towards the north-west, and similarly the competing Xs towards the south-east : we see that PERFECT COMPETITION. 39 iu general for any number sliort of the practically infinite (if such a term be allowed) there is a finite length of contract-curve, from ^^ y^ to x^ t)^^ at any point of which if the system is placed, it cannot by contract or recontract be displaced ; that there are an indefinite number of final settlements, a quantity continually dimi- nishing as we approach a perfect market. We are brought back again to case (yS), on which some further remarks have been conveniently postponed to this place. (For additional illustrations see Appendix V.) The two conditions, ^^'x + i^^'^, = and ^F^ + yjYy = 0, just obtained correspond to Professor Jevons's two equations of exchange. His formulae are to be regarded as representing tlie transactions of two individuah i?i, or subject to, the laic of, a market. Our assumed u?iity of nature in the midst of plurahty of persons naturally brings out the same result. The represented two curves may be called demand curves, as each expresses the amount of dealing which will afibrd to one of the dealers the maximum of advantage at a certain rate of exchan.ge a value of ^ . This might be elegantly ex- pressed in polar co-ordinates, tan 6 wiH then be the rate of exchange, and, if P be the utihty of X, C-1-) = is the demand-curve. By a well known property of analysis ( i— j = represents not only maximum points, but minimum points ; tlic lowest depths of valley, as well as the highest elevatiojis, wliicli one moving continually in a fixed right line from the origin over the utility-surface would reacli. This mini- mum portion of the demand-curve corresponds to Mr. Marshall's Class IE. We see that the dealer at any given 40 ^[AT1IEMATICAL PSYCHICS. rate of exchange, far from resting and having his end at a })ornt on this part of the curve, will tend to move away from it. It has not the properties of a genuine demand- curve. The dealing of an individual in an open market, in wliich there prevails what may be called the law of price, the relation between the individual's require- ments and that quantity c{0) ', substantially identical with those collec- tive demand curves so scientifically developed by M. Walras, and so fruitfully applied by Mr. Marshall. Thus, proceeding by degrees from the case of two isolated bargainers to the limiting case of a perfect market, we see how contract is more or less indeterminate according as the field is less or more affected with the first imperfection^ hmitation of numbers. II. Let there be equal numbers of equal-natured Xs and equal-natured Ys, subject to the condition that eacli Y can deal at the same time with. only wXs, and similarly each X with only n'Ys. First let w = n'. Then, in the light of the conceptions lately won, it ap- pears that contract is as indeterminate as if the field- consisted of only nXs and wYs; that is to say, there are as many and the same final settlements as in that case, represented by the same portion of the contract-curve COMBINATIONS. 43 between (say) ^y and x-q. Let n' increase. Conti-act becomes less indeterminate : f moving north-west, and the quantity oi final settlements being thereby diminished. The subtracted final settlements are most favourable to the Ys. Let n' diminish. Contract becomes more inde- terminate ; ^ moving south-east, and the quantity of final settlements being thereby increased. Tlie added final settlements are more favourable to the Ys than those pre\iously existing. The theorem admits of being extended to the general case of unequal numbers and natures. III. Let there be an equal number N of equal- natured Xs and equal-natured Ys, and let each set be formed into equal coiihinations, there being wXsin each X combination, and n'Xs> in each Y combination. First, let n = n'. Then contract is as indeterminate as if the N N" field consisted of — Xs and — Ys ; in the same sense as n n that explained in the last paragraph. Let tz' diminish. Contract becomes less indeterminate, in the same sense as in the last paragraph. Let n' increase. Contract be- comes more indeterminate ; the added final settlements being more favourable to the Ys than those previously existing. The theorem is typical of the general case in which numbers, natures, and combinations are unequal. Combination tends to introduce or increase indeter- minateness ; and the final settlements thereby added are more favourable to the combiners than the (determinate or indeterminate) final settlements previously existing. Combiners stand to gain in this sense. The worth of this abstract reasoning ought to be t€sted by comparison with the unmathematical treat- ment of the same subject. As far as the writer is aware. 44 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. a straightforward answer has never been offered to the abstract question, What is the effect of combinations on contract in an otherwise perfect state of competition, as here supposed ? Writers either ^ ignore the abstract question altogether, confining themselves to other as- })ects of Trade Unionism ; its tendency to promote communication, mobility, &c. ; in our terms, to render the competition more normal^ and more perfect in respect of extent (diminishing our first imperfection, for such is tlie effect of increased mobility, ahke of goods and men). Or, while they seem to admit that unionism would have the effect of raising the rate of wages ^ they yet deny that tlic total remuneration of tlie operatives, the wage fund (in the intelligible sense of that term), can be increased. But if our reasonings be correct, the one thing from an abstract point of view visible amidst the jumble of catallactic - molecules, the jostle of competitive crowds, is tliut those who form themselves into compact bodies by combination do not tend to lose, but stand to gain in the sense described, to gain in point of utihty, which is a function not only of the (objective) remuneration, but also of the labour, and which, therefore, may increase, although the remuneration decrease ; as ^Ir. Fawcett well sees (in respect to the question of unproductive ' Mr. Sidgwick iadeed (if the passage already referred to, Fortnightly Revieic, p. 4ll, ante, p. 33, might be thus construed ?) — at any rate some other.s have observed the momentous dead-lock resulting from the complete solidijicit.icm of the whole operative-interest and the whole employer-interest; our (a) case, contract unqualified by competition. But this hardly affords any indication of what would happen, or what the writers suppose would happen, when contract is qualified, however slightly, by competition ; as if, for instance, there were two or three combinations on one side and two or three on the other; which in view of foreign competition is likely, one might think, to be long the concrete case. "^ Cf. Cadmes on Trades Uniont (first sections) ; Courcelle-Seneuil on Coali'ions, COMBINATIONS. 45 consumption. — ' Manual,' cli. iv.), though he gives so uncertain a sound about Trades Unionism. And if, as seems to be imphed in much that has been written on this subject, it is attempted to enforce the argument against Trades Unionism by the consideration that it tends to diminish the total national produce^ the obvious reply is that unionists, as ' economic men,' are not concerned with the total produce. Because the total produce is diminished, it does not ^ follow that the labourer's share is diminished (the loss may fall on the capitahst and the entrepreneur, whose compressibility has been well shown by I^Ir. Sidgwick in the article already referred to) ; much less does it follow (as aforesaid) that there should be diminished that quantity which alone the rational unionist is concerned to increase — tlte labourers utility. If this view be correct, it would seem as if, in the matter of unionism, as well as in that of the predeterminate wage-fund, the ' untutored mind ' of the workman had gone more straight to the point than economic intelligence misled by a bad method, reasoninf^ without mathematics upon mathematical subjects. IV. Let there be an equal number N of equal- natured Xs and Ys; subject to the condition that to every contract made by a Y at least n Xs must be parties, and similarly for an X n' Ys. First, let n^n'. Contract is as indeterminate as if the field consisted of N N — Xs and — Ys. Let n' increase. Contract becomes n n more indeterminate, and the Ys Hand to gain. And con- versely. To appreciate the quantity of indeterminateness hkely to result in fact from these imperfections (opera- ting separately and together) would require a knowledge ' See the remarks in Appendix Vn. 46 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. of concrete phenomena to which the writer can make no claim. The first imperfection appHes to Monopolies. It is perliaps chiefly important, as supplying a clue for the solution of the other cases. The second imperfection may be operative in many cases of contract for personal service. Suppose a market, consisting of an equal number of masters and servants, ofTerinir respectively wages and service ; sub- ject to the condition that no maTj can serve two masters, no master employ more than one man ; or su])pose equilibrium already established between such parties to be disturbed by any sudden influx of wealth into the hands of the masters. Then there is no determmate^ and very generally ^ unique, arrangement towards which the system tends under the operation of, may we say, a law of Nature, and which would be predictable if we knew beforehand the real requirements of each, or of tlie average, dealer; but there are an indefinite number of arrangements a priori possible, towards one of wliich the system is urged not by the concurrence of innume- rable (as it were) neuter atoms ehminating chance, but (abstraction being made of custom) by what has been (tailed ti;e Art of Bargaining — ^^higghng dodges and designing obstinacy, and other incalculable and often disreputable accidents. Now, if managerial work does not admit of being distributed over several establishments, of .being sold in bits, it v/ould seem that this species of indeterminateness affects the contract of an entrepreneur with foreman, of a cooperative association of workmen (or a com- bination) witli a manager. This view must be modified ' Exceptions are the multiple intersections of Demand-Cur vps ehown fcy Mr. Mamhall and M. Walrap. COMBTNATIOXS. 47 in so far as managerial wages are determined by the cost of production (of a manager !), or more exactly by the equation ^ between managerial wages and the remuneration in other occupations, w^here the remu- neration is determined by a process of the nature of perfect competition ; and by other practical considera- tions. The third imperfection may have any degree of importance up to the point where a wliole interest (labourers or entrepreneurs) is solidified into a single competitive unit. This varying result may be tolerably well illustrated by the case of a market in wjiicli an indefinite number of consumers are supplied by varying numbers of monopolists (a case properly belonging to our first i/nperfectiou : namely, hmited nui/tber of dealers). Starting with complete monopoly, we shall find the price continually diminish as the number of monopolists increases, until the point of complete fluidity is reached. This gradual ' extinction ' of the influence of monopoly is well traced by Cournot in a discussion masterly, but limited by a particular condition, which may be called uniformity of price, not [it is submitted) abstractedly neces- sary in cases of imperfect competition} Going beyond Cournot, not without trembling, the present inquiry finds that, where the field of competition is sensil)ly imperfect, an indefinite number of final settlements are possible ; that in such a case different final settle- ments would be reached if the system should run down from different initial positions or conti-acts. The ' In virtue of pertneabilifi/ hetvfeen occupations; postulating (1) free- dom of choice between different occupations, (2) knowledfre of circuni- fllances determining choice. With the latter sort of knowledge (so warmly impugned by Mr. Cliff Leslie) our free comnumication about uriidrf vf wn- irttct (in vonnal market) is not to be confounded. See p. IH. •^ Cf. Walras's Elements, s. .352. 48 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. sort of diflerence which exists between^ Dutch and English auction, theoretically unimportant in perfect competition, does correspond to different results, different final settle jueiiti in imperfect competition. And in general, and in the absence of imposed conditions, the said final settlements are not on the demand-curve, hut on the con- tract-curve. That is to say, there does not necessarily exist in the case of imperfect as there does in the case of perfect competition a certain property (which some even mathematical writers may appear to take for granted), namely, that — in the case all along supposed of Xs and Ys dealing respectively in x and y — if any X X give X in exchange for y„ he gets no less and no more y than he is willing to take at the rate of ex- change — . If, however, this condition, though not spontaneously generated by imperfect as by perfect competition, should be introduced ab extra, imposed by custom and con- venience, as no doubt would be very generally the case, nevertheless the property of indeterniinateness, plurality of final settlements, will abide. Only the final settlements will now be by way of demand-curve, not contract-curve. If, for instance, powerful trades unions did not seek to fix the quid pro quo, the amounts of labour exchanged for wealth (which they would be quite competent to seek), but only the rate of exchange, it being left to each capitalist to purchase as much labour as he might demand at t}iat rate, there would still be that sort of indeterminateness favourable to unionists above described. The geometry of this case may be understood from an attentive consideration of • As Thornton suggests. Now we believe, but not because that un- matheuiatical writer has told us. COOPERATIVE ASSOCIATIONS. 49 the typical illustration at the end of Appendix Y., fig- 4. The fourth imperfection would seem likely to operate in the case of cooperative associations up to the time when the competitive field shall contain a practically infinite number of such bodies ; that is, perhaps for a long time. To fix the ideas, suppose associa- tions of capitalist- workmen, consisting each of 100 members, 50 contributing chiefly capital, and 50 cliiefly labour. Let the field of competition consist of 1,000 indi\dduals. The point here indicated is that, not- withstanding the numerical size of the field, contract will not be more determinate (oAving to the fact that all the members of the association are in contract with each other — not, as now usual, each for himself contracting with employer) than if the field consisted of 10 indi- viduals. And a similar result would hold if, with more generality, we suppose members contributing labour and capital in varying amounts, and remunerated for their sacrifices according to a principle of disij'ibuiion ; in the most, or, at any rate, a sufficiently general case, a function of the sacrifices, the form of the function being a contract- variable, or what comes to much tlie same thing, there being assumed a function of given form containing any number of constants, which are articles of contract, subject, of course, to the condition that the sum of the portions assigned is equal to the distribuend. And, similarl}^ if we introduce different kinds of labour and other concrete complications. The Determinateness will depend not so much upon tlie number of individuals as upon the number of associations in the field. As cooperative association becomes more prevalent, no doubt, cceteris paribus, the indeterminateness liere indicated would decrease. 50 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. Nevertheless, in consequence of the great variety of cooperative experiments, the sundry kinds of contract and divers species of articles, the field of competition being thus broken up, it is submitted that the rise of cooperative association is likely to be accompanied with the prevalence of ^ indeterminateness, whatever opinion we may form about the possible regularity in a distant future. Altogether, if of two great coming institutions, trades- unionism is affected with the third imperfection, and cooperative association with the fourth, and both with the .second, it does not seem very rash to infer, if not for the present, at least in the proximate future, a consider- able extent of indeterminateness. Of this inference what would be the consequence. To impair, it may be conjectured, the reverence paid to competition ; in whose results — as if worked out by a play of physical forces, impersonal, impartial — economists have complacently acquiesced. Of justice and huma- nity there was no pretence ; but there seemed to com- mand respect the majestic neutrality of Nature. But if it should appear that the field of competition is deficient in that continuity of fuid^ that multiety of atoms which constitute ^ the foundations of the uniformities of Physics; if competition is found wanting, not only the regularity of law, but even the impartiahty of chance — the throw of a die loaded with villainy — economics would be indeed a ' dismal science,' and the reverence for com- petition would be no more. ' There has been, I believe, observed in cooperative associations, with regard to the comparative remuneratioas of capitah and labour, that dispute without any principle of decision which is the characteristic of contract. ' Above, pp. 5, 18, ' Theory of Vortices and Theory of Atoms. NEED OF AHBITRATION. 51 There would arise a general demand for a fninciple of arbitration. And this aspiration of the commercial world would be but one breath in the universal sigh for articles of peace. For almost every species of social and political contract is affected vn{\\ an indeterminateness like that which has been described ; an evil which is likely to be much more felt when, with the growth of intelligence and hberty, the principle of contract shall have replaced both the appeal to force and the acquiescence in custom. Throughout the whole region of in a wide sense contract., in the general absence of a mechanism like perfect com- petition, the same essential indeterminateness prevails ; in international, in domestic politics ; between nations, classes, sexes. The whole creation groans and yearns, desiderating a principle of arbitration, an end of strifes. Corollary. — Where, then, would a world weary of strife seek a principle of arbitration ? lujnMice, replies the moralist ; and a long hne of philosophers, from Plato to Herbert Spencer, are ready to expound the principle. But their expositions, however elevating in moral tone, and of great hortative value for those who already know their duty, are not here of much avail, where the thing sought is a definite, even quantitative, criterion of what is to be done. Equity and ' fairness of division ' are charming in the pages ^ of Herbert Spencer, and delighted Dugald Stewart with the appearance^ of mathe- matical certainty ; but how would they be applicable to the distribution of a joint product between coopera- tors ? Nor is the equity so often invoked by a high authority on cooperation much more available ; for why is the particular principle of distribution recom- , ' Data of Ethics, p. 1G4. "^ Imoi/s, Book 11. 52 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. mended by Mr. Holyoake (operatives to take net pro- duct, paying therefrom a salary to manager, roughly speaking, and to say nothing of capital) more equitable than an indefinite number of Other principles of distri- bution (e.g. operatives to take any fraction which might have been agreed upon, manager the remainder ; eithei^ party, or neither, paying wages to the other). J?uitice requires to be infoimed by some more defi- nite principle, as Mill ^ and Mr. Sidgwick reason well. The star of justice affords no certain guidance — for those who have loosed from the moorings of custom — c unless it reflect the rays of a superior luminary — utili- tarianism. But, even admitting a disposition in the purer wills and clearer intellects to accept the just as f.nis litium, and the useful as the definition of the just; admitting that there exists in the higher parts of human nature a tendency towards and feeling after utihtarian institu- tions ; could we seriously suppose that these moral Considerations were relevant to war and trade ; could eradicate the ' controlless core ' of human selfishness, or exercise an appreciable force in comparison with the impulse of self-interest. It would have to be first shown that the interest of all is the interest of each, an illusion to which the ambiguous language of Mill, and perhaps Bentliam, may have lent some countenance, but which is for ever dispelled by the masterly analysis of Mr. Sidgwick. Mr. Sidgwio-k acknowledges two supreme principles — Egoism and Utilitarianism ; of independent authority, conflicting dictates ; irreconcilable, unless indeed by religion. It is far from the spirit of the philosophy of pleasure to depreciate the importance of religion ; but in the ' See review of Thornton on Labour (as well as Utilitarianism). PRINCIPLE OF ARBITRATION. 53 present inquiry, and dealing with the lower elements of human nature, we should have to seek a more obvious transition, a more earthy passage, from the principle of self-interest to the principle, or at least the practice, of utilitarianism. Now, it is a circumstance of momentous interest — visible to common sense when pointed out by mathe- matics — that one of the in general indefinitely nume- rous settlements'^ between contractors is the utilitarian arrangement of the articles of contract, the contract tending to the greatest possible total utihty of the con- tractors. In this direction, it may be conjectured, is to be sought the required principle. For the required basis of arbitration between economical contractors is evidently some settlement ; and the utilitarian settle- ment may be selected, in the absence of any other principle of selection, in virtue of its moral peculiarities : ■ Where the cantract-curve is (^.) (^°) - (^) (^) = 0, the utilitarian point has co-ordinates determined by the equations the roots of which evidently satisfy the contracts-equation. The theorem is quite general. Rere may be the place to observe that if we suppose our contractors t CALCULUS. 57 included under it, but rather the grosser ' feelings than for instance the 'joy and fehcity ' of devotion). The term includes absence of pain. Greatest possible hap- piness is the greatest possible integral of the differential ' Number of enjoyers x duration of enjoyment x degree thereof (cf. axiom below).^ (2) Means are the distributable proximate means of pleasure, chiefly wealth as destined for consumption and (what is conceivable if not usual in civilisation) the un- purchased command of unproductive labour. (3) An individual has greater capacity for happiness than another, when for the same amount whatsoever of means he obtains a greater amount of pleasure, and also for the same increment (to the same amount) whatsoever of means a greater increment of pleasure. This -'- definition- of-a-t-hing ' is doubtless (like Euclid's) ii» pci'fectly leali& ed. One imperfection is that some individuals may enjoy the advantages not for any amount of means, but only for values above a certain amount. This may be the case with the liiglier orders of evolu- tion. Again, one individual may have the advantages in respect of one kind of means, another of another. But, if one individual has tlie advantages in respect of most and the greatest pleasures, he ma y be treated as ha ying more capacity for pleasure in gen eral. Thirdly, the two advantages may not go together. If ' the higlier pleasures, such as those of affection and virtue, can ' C!ompare the "base associatione of ' Utilitarianism.'' Surely, as Mr. Arnold sayp, a pedant invented the term. ' The greatest possible value ^^ I I I ^P ''^ '^^ (where dp corresponds to a juat perceivable increment of pleesure, dn to a sentient individual, dl to an mstant of time). The limits of the time-integi-ation are and od, the present and the indefinite future. The other limits are variable, to be deter- mined by the Calculus of Yariations. E 58 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. liardly be said to come from pleasure- stuff at all' (as Mr. Barratt says in his able Note in ' Mind X.,' often cited below), it is possible (though not probable?) that the enjoy ers of the higher pleasures should derive fro m the zero^^ ^BrI Lt ^lhei '"X^ert airi_jmi^^ (and a fortiori for all superior values) ..^i^-ameunt- of pleasure {i^rea ter than an other class of enjoyers, say the sensual, can obtain for any amount whatsoever oTmeans ; whilti at the same time tlie sensual obtain greater incre- ments of pleasure for the same increments of means (above the minimum). In such a case the problem would be complicated, but the solution not compromised. Eougldy speaking, the first advantage would dominate the. theory of population ; the second the distribution of means. A fourth imperfection in the statement of the definition is that the units whose capacities are com- pared are often (/roups of individuals, as families. With these reservations the reality of the definition jqiay be allowed. But it may be objected that differences of capacity, though real, are first not precisely ascertainable, and secondly artificial, being due to education. But, first, even at present we can roughly discriminate capacity for happiness. If the higher pleasures are on the whole most pleasurable — a fact of which the most scientific statement appears to have been given by Mr. Sully ^ — then those who are most apt to enjoy those pleasures tend to be most capable of happiness. And, as Mr. Barratt says, it 'seems (speaking generally) to be the fact that, the higher a being in the scale of evolution, the higher its capacity for pleasure ; ' while greater pre- cision might be attainable by improved examinations and hedonimetry. Further it will be seen that some of the ' Pessimism, note to chap. xi. DEFINITIONS. 59 applications of the problem turn upon s2ij)poseJ, ratlier than ascertained, differences of capacity. Tlie second objection, William Thompson's, would liardly now be maintained in face of what is known about heredity. But it is worth observing that his conclusion, equahty of distribution, follows from his premiss only in so far as a proposition like our first postulate (below) is true of wealth and labour applied to education^ in so far as it is true that improvement is not proportionately increased by the increase of the means of education. (4) An individual has more capacity for work than another,^ when for the same amount whatsoever of work done he incurs a less amount of fatigue, and also for the same increment (to the same amount) whatsoever of work done a less increment of fatigue. This fourth definition may present the same imper- fections as the third. Indeed the fourth definition is but a case of the third ; both stating relation between means and pleasure. The third definition becomes the fourth, if you change the sigjis of me'dus B.nd pleasure, put means produced for means consumed and the pains of produc- tion for the pleasures of consumption. Or not even the latter change, in so far as labour is sweet (which is very far according, to Fourier). It is submitted that this identification confirms the reahty of the third definition, since the reahty of the fourth is undisputed. Of course, if we identify the definitions, we must bear in mind that they are hable to be separated in virtue of the second imperfection above noticed. Axiom. — Pleasure is measurable, and aU pleasures are commensurable ; so much of one sort of pleasure ' Or this : When the same amount of fatigue corresponds to a greater amount of work done, and the same increment (to the same amount) of fatigue to a greater increment of work. 60 jVIATHEMATlCAL PSYCHICS. felt by one sentient being equateable to so much of other sorts of pleasure felt by other sentients. Professor Bain has shown ^ how one may correct one's estimate of one's own pleasures upon much the same principle as the observations made with one's senses ; how one may correctly estimate the pleasures of others upon the principle ' Accept identical objective marks as sliowing identical subjective states,' notwith- standinj*^ jxirsonal difl'erences, as of activity or demon- s^trativeness. This ' moi'al arithmetic ' is perhaps to be siipplementcid by a moral differential calculus, the Fech- nerian method apphed to pleasures in general. For Wundt has shown that sensuous pleasures may thereby be measured, and, as utihtarians hold, all pleasures are commensurable. The first principle of this method miglit be : Just-perceivable increments of pleasure, of all pleasures for all persons, are equateable.^ Imph- cated Avith this principle and Bain's is the following : Equimultiples of equal pleasures are equateable ; where the multiple of a pleasure signifies exactly similar plea- sure (integral or differential) enjoyed by a multiple number of persons, or through a multiple time, or (time and persons being constant) a pleasure whose degree is a multiple of the degree of the given pleasure. Tlie last expression is open to question (though see Delboeuf * Etude psychophysique,' vii. and elsewhere), and is not here insisted upon. It suffices to postulate tlie practical proposition that when (agreeably to Fech- nerian conceptions) it requires n times more just-per- ceivable- increments to get up to one pleasure from zero than to get up to another, then the former pleasure enjoyed by a given number of persons during a given ' Emotions and Will, 3rd edition. ' Cf. Wundt, Phys. Psych., p. 295; above, p. 8, Appendix III. THE UNIT OF PLEASURE. 61 time is to be sought as much as the latter pleasure en- joyed by n times the given number of persons during the given time, or by the given number duiing the multiple time. Just so one cannot reject the practical conclusions of Probabilities, though one may object with Mr. Venn to speaking of belief being numerically measured. Indeed these principles of jxeTprjTLKT) are put forward not as proof against metaphysical subtle- ties, but as practical ; self-evident a priori^ or by what- ever iTrayoiy) or c^tcr/xos is the method of practical axioms. Let us now approach tlie Problem, attacking its inquiries, separately and combined, with the aid of appropriate postulates. (a)^ The first postulate appropriate to the first in- quiry is : Tlie rate r f increase of pleasure decreases as its means increase. The postulate asserts that the second differential of pleasure w4th regard to means is continually negative. It does not assert that the first differential is continually positive. It is siipposablc (though not probable) that means increased beyond a certain point increase only pain. It is also supposable that 'the higher pleasures ' do not ' come from pleasure- stuff at all,' and do not increase with it. Of course there are portions of the utilitarian whole unaffected by our adjustments ; at any rate the happiness of the stellar populations. But this does not invalidate the postulate, does not prevent our managing our ' small peculiar' for the best, or asserting that in respect thereof there tends to be the greatest possible liappiness. The proposition thus stated is evidenced by every-day experience ; experience well focused by Buffon in his ' See the cumulative proofs of this postulate adduced bj- Professor JevODB in Theory of Ptditical Economy. C2 MATHEMATICAL TSYCniCS. ' Moral Arithmetic,' Laplare in Ins ' Essay on Proba- bilities,' William I'hompson in his 'Inquiry into the Distribution of Wealth,' and JMr. Sidgwick in the 'Me- thods of Ethics.' This empirical generalisation may be confirmed by ' ratiocination ' from simpler inductions, partly common t(^ tlie followers of Fechner, and partly peculiar to Professor Delboeuf. All the forraulce suggested for the relation between quantity of stimulus and intensity of sensation agree in possessing the property under con- sideration ; which is true then of what Professor Bain would describe, as pleasures of mere intensity ; coarse pleasures indeed but the objects of much expenditure. Thus pleasure is not proportionately increased by in- creased glitter of furniture, nor generally by increased scale of establishment ; whether in the general case by analoofy from the Fechnerian experiments on the senses^ or by a more a priori ' law of relation ' in the sense of Wundt. But not only is the function connecting means and pleasure such that tlie increase of means does not pro- duce a })ro]>ortionate increase of pleasure ; but this eflect is heightened by the function itself so varying (on repetition of the conditions of pleasure) that the same means produce less pleasure. The very parameter in virtue c>f which such functional variation occurs is exhibited by Professor Delboeuf in the case of eye-sen- sations ; - that a similar variation holds good of pleasures in (x) be the curve of possibility for the pre- sent j^eneration. Let v = Be/—^ — j-,~^ x ^ be the curve 6 2 of issue fo¥_eapacity ^ ; where B is the natural maximum of issue. Then n^, the line of possibility for the next -^2 i 12 generation, is^ i ^ 4. ^ ff)(x-\-z)dz, where by the fifth postulate x^ is given as the highest existing degree of capacity ; what is variable is x^^ the abscissa of total selection. The happiness of the next generation . QC B}= / [n}(F{xt/)—cy)]dx + c'D, where oc is a con- »/ — QC venient designation for the utmost extent of variation—-' variation in the Darwinian sense. Xq is given by the equation =0 ; from which it is by no means clear that the condition of the least favoured in the second generation is above zero. In fact, the happiness of some of the lower classes may be sacrificed to that of the higher classes. And, again, the happiness of part of the second generation may be sacrificed to that of the succeeding generations. Moreover (it is convenient, though out of order, here to add) our uncertainty increases when we suppose the laboriousness also of population variable. Nothing indeed appeal's to be certain from a quite abstract point of THE LEAST FAVOURED CLASS. 75 view, except that the required limit is above tlie starving- point ; both because in tlie neighbourhood of that point there would be no Avork done, and — before that con- sideration should come into force and above it — because the pleasures of the most favoured could not weigh much against the privations of the least favoured. {Cf. Wundt's pleasure-curve.) It may be admitted, however, that a limit below t1ie zero of happiness, even if abstractedly desirable, would not be humanly attainable ; whether because discomfort in the lower classes produces political instabihty (Aris- totle, &:c.), or because only through the comfort of the lower classes can population be checked from sinking to the starving-point (Mill, vcriKciiTep(o<;^ Now attention to the weaker sex, and woman's right not only to certain attentions in polite society but to some exemp- tion from the harder work of life, are agreeable to the utiUtarian theory : that the stronger should not only do more work, but do so much more work as to suffer^ more fatigue where fatigue must be suffered (y8). It « Cf. Livy, ii., p. 32, ^. " Burke. » JSssat/, 14. * Emile, iv. * See note, p. 66. PEOOP OF UTILITARIANISM. 79 may be objected : consideration should equally be due from the stronger to the weaker members of the same sex. But in the latter case there is wanting a natural instinct predisposing to the duties of benevolence ; there has been wanting also a fixed criterion of strength to fix the associations of duty ; and, lastly, competition has interfered, while competition between man and woman has been much less open (and much less ob- viously useful to the race). Altogether, account being taken of existing, whether true or false, opinions about the nature of woman, there appears a nice consilience between the deductions from the utihtarian principle and the disabihties and privileges which hedge round modem womanhood. Utilitarian also is the custom of family life, among other reasons, in so far as (contrasted with communistic education) it secures for the better-bom better educa- tional influences (y) ; in particular a larger share of good society in early life. The universal principle of the struggle for life, as Mr. Barratt may suggest, conduces to Utihtarian selection. This being borne in mind, there appears a general correspondence between the popula- tion-theory above deduced (yS) and the current ethics of marriage, which impose ^ only a precedent condition, success, hereditary or personal, in the struggle for hfe. Concerning the classification of future society, common sense anticipates no Utopia of equahty. Physical pri- vations are pitied ; the existence of a subordinate -and less fortunate class does not seem to accuse the bounty of Providence.^ With the silence of common sense accords the uncertain sound of exact Utihtarianism (ayS). But, if egoist or intuitivist are not to be altogether ^ In nepect to population. " C£. Borke on the * labouring poor,' in Jtefficide P«icc, 3. 80 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. converted by the deductive process of Mr. Sidgwick, at least the deaUng with his exact definition may tend to mark out and reclaim from the indefinite one large common field of conduct, one of the virtues of the in- tuitivist, one of the gratifications of the egoist — rational benevolence. For can there be a rational wish to please without a wiUingness to estimate the duration of the pleasure, the susceptibility, as well as the number, of the pleased ? Exact Utilitarianism may also, as Mr. Barratt thinks plausible, present the end of Politics ; of Pohtics as based upon self-interest.^ A political ' contract ' for the adjustment of conflicting interests should have two qualities. It sliould be clear and fixed, universally interpretable in the same sense. It should be such that 4,he naturally more powerful class, those who, though fewer, outweigh the more numerous by strength, ability, and capacity to co-operate, should not have reason to think that they would fare better under some other contract. Two contracts present these quaHties; the rough and ready wocratical, the exact possibly aristo- cratical, Utilitarianism. . The first contract excels in the first quality ; the second in the second. n. That the same reasonings should lead up to a general 'principle and down again to its appUcations — that the theory should be tolerably certain, the practice indefinitely remote — is not more paradoxical than that the demonstrator of the atom-theory should foresee the remote possibility of its apphcation, no less a possibility than to triumph over the second law of Thermodynamics.^ The triumphs of Hedonics, if equally conceivable, are equally remote ; but they do not so certainly become ■ Compare the Corollary of the Eeonontic Calculus. =* Clerk-Maxwell, Theory of Heat, p. 308. APPLICATIONS OF UTILITARIANISM 81 more conceivable when considered more remote ; for what if in the course of evolution the subtlety of science should never overtake the subtlety of feeling ! Faint and vague and abstracting many things which ought not to be abstracted, the Hedonical Calculus supplies less a definite direction than a general bias, here brief!}' and diffidently indicated. The end of action being defined as above, the Jacobin ideal ' All equal and rude,' J. S. Mill's ideal ' All equal and cultivated,' are not necessarily desirable, not para- mount ends to be sought by revolution or the more tedious metliod of depopulation. Pending a scientific hedonimetry, the principle ' Every man, and every woman, to count for one,' should be very cautiously ap- phed. In communistic association (if such should be) the distribution of produce should be rather upon the principle of Fourier than of Owen. Universal equal sufirage is less likely to be approved than plural votes conferred not only (as Mill thought) upon sagacity, but also upon capacity for happiness. The play of the struggle for life is to be encouraged, in the present state of society, within limits, without prejudice to the supremacy of the supreme principle. Mr. Barratt indeed from the same premisses, the utility of competition, infers a different conclusion : that Utih- tarianism should resign in favour of Egoism. But surely the inference is, not that the Utihtarian should change his destination from Universal to Egoistic Hedonism (points toto coelo apart, as the chart of Sidg%vick shows) ; but that, while constant to his hfe's star, he should tach (in the present state of storm at least) more considerablj^ than the inexperienced voyager might advise. No one can misunderstand this ' self-hmitation ' of Utilitarianism — for it has been explained by Mr. Sidgwick ; least of all S2 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHICS. the Egoist — ^for a similar delegation, without abdication, of the supreme command is much more necessary in the case of the supremacy of self-love (Butler, &c.). Lastly, while we calculate the utiHty of pre-utihtarian institutions, we are impressed with a view of Nature, not, as in the picture left by Mill, all bad, but a first approximation to the best. We are biassed to a more conservative caution in reform. And we may have here not only a direction, but a motive, to our end. For, as Nature is judged more good, so more potent than the great utihtarian has allowed ^ are the motives to mo- rahty which religion finds in the attributes of God. ' Mill, Esaayit on Nature and IMitfion. APPENDICES. ON UNNUMERICAL MATHEMATICS. It seemed undesirable to load our opening pages with a multi- plicity of illustrations which, if the writer's views are correct, would be superfluous to the mathematician, and, in any case, might be uninteresting to the arfswixsrpTjTos. Indeed, the nature of the subject is such that a single instance — by a sort of ' mathematical induction,' as it has been called — a single ' representative-particular ' authenticated instance of mathematical reasoning without nmnerical data is sufficient to establish the general principle. However, it may be well to add a few words of exposition after first precising the point at issue by citing on our side the father of Mathematical Econo- mics, as the representative of the contrasted view the very able author of a review (on Prof. Jevons' * Theory ') already re- ferred to. Coumot says : ' — ' L'une des fonctions les plus importantes de I'analyse consiste precisement a assigner des relations deter- mineesentre des quantites dont les valeurs numeriques, et meme les formes algebriques, sont absolument inassignables. ' D'une part, des fonctions inconnues peuvent cependant jouir de proprietes ou de caracteres generaux qui sont connus, par exemple, d'etre indefiniment croissantes ou decroissantes, ou d'etre periodiques, ou de n'etre reelles qu'entre de certaines limites. De semblables donnees quelque imparfaites qu'elles paraissent, peuvent toutefois, en raison de leur generalite meme, et a I'aide des signes propres a I'analyse, conduire a des relations egalement generales, qu'on aurait difficilement decouvertes pans ' Thforie des Richetats, p. 51. See also Preface, p. xiii. 84 APPENDICES. ce secours. C'est ainsi que, sans comiaitTe la loi de decroisse- ment des forces capillaires, et en partant du seul principe que ces forces sont insen§ibles a des distances seusibles, les geo- metres out demontre le^ lois generales des phenom^nes de la capillarite, lois confirmees par I'observation.' The * Saturday Eeview ' (Nov, 11, 1871):— . . . * We can tell that one pleasure is greater than another ; but that does not help us. To apply the mathematical methods, pleasure must be in some way capable of numerical expression ; we must be able to say, for example, that the pleasure of eating a beef- steak is to the pleasure of drinking a glass of beer as five to four. The words convey no particular meaning to us ; and Mr. Jevons, instead of helping us, seems to shirk the question. We must n'mind him that, in order to fit a subject for mathematical in- quiry, it is not sufficient to represent some of the quantities concerned by letters. If we say that G represents the confi- dence of Liberals in Mr. Gladstone, and D the confidence of Conservatives in Mr. Disraeli, and y the number of those parties ; and infer that Mr. Gladstone's tenure of office depends ,. - 1. d G jcZD t. 1 upon some e(|uation involvmg - and -^ -, we have merely wrapped up a plain statement in a mysterious collection of letters.' The reader is referred to th« whole article as typical of the literary method of treating our subject. Thus, again, 'the equations . . . ., assuming them to be legitimate, seem to us to be simply useless so long as the functions are obviously indeterminable. They are merely a roundabout way of express- ing what may be better said in words.' And, again, ' he wraps up liis mysterious conclusions in symbols which are mere ver- biiige, as they contain functions which neither are nor can be determined.' Compare Mill : — * Such principles (mathematical) are mani- festly inapplicable where the causes on which any class of phe- nomena depend are so imperfectly accessible to our observation, that we cannot ascertain by a proper induction their numerical laws.' ' Compare also the spirit of his remarks * upon algebra and its exclusive ' adaptation to the subjects for which it is cpm- / Logic, book iii. chap. xxiv. p. 9. '* Book iv. chap. vi. p. 6. U^'^TMER1CAL MATHEMATICS. 85 monly employed, namely, those of which the investigations have been already reduced to the ascertainment of a relation between numbers.' Compare also the ^^ews of Comte to which he refers. A single instance — that already cited in the text — seems sufficient to oppose to this popular impression about the limits of mathematics. Thomson and Tait, in their ' Treatise on Natural Philosophy,' p. 320, discuss the problem of a ball set in motion through a mass of incompressible fluid extending infi- nitely in all directions on one side of an infinit-e plane, and originally at rest. After constructing the Lagrangian equations from (what may be called in reference to ntmierical measure- ments) a priori considerations, they go on : ' principles suffi- cient for a practical solution of the problem of determining P and Q will be given later. In the meantime, it is obvious that each decreases as x increases. Hence the equations of motion show ' several deductions which are truly ' most remarkable and very suggestive,' e.g. (in an analogous problem), that two balls properly projected in a perfect incompressible liquid will seem to attract one another. It is suggested, I think, that a certain hypothesis as to the ultimate constitution of matter corresponds with the observed phenomena of attraction. Now here is the type of mathematical psychics. The ' prac- tical solution of the problem of determining P and Q,' func- tions denoting quantities of pleasure in terms of external ob- jects (means, &c.), is not yet given. But certain properties of such functions are given. Thus, if P be a person's pleasure considered as a function of x his means, it is obvious (compare the premises of Thomson and Tait's reasoning) that P increases d P as X increases, but at a decreasing rate ; whence con- dx ■ . d T tinually positive, ?■ continually negative. And from such data, mathematical reasonings show several interesting results. It has ' been suggested that a certain hypothesis as to the ulti- mate principle and supreme standard of morals corresponds (to an extent not usually noticed) with the observed phenomena of human action. ' Above, p. 4. 86 APPENDICES. One can imagine how facetious the ' Saturday Reviewer ' might be in criticising the method employed by Thomson and Tait in the above example, namely, mathematical deduction without numerical measurement. As we are not able to say that P is to Q as 5 to 4, the argument 'conveys no particular meaning to us.' In employing -^ -^, ' we have merely wrapped up a plain statement in a mysterious collection of let- ters.' Doubtless, I reply, what we know of P and Q might have been stated unmathematically in a roundabout literary fashion ; but that statement, as compared with Thomson's, would not be a plain statement^ nor appropriate nor serviceable. For this same symbol-speech, so harsh and crabbed as compared with literary elegance, is gifted with a magical charm to win coy truth ; the brief and broken language which the love of abstract truth inspires, no doubt foolishness to those who have no sympathy with that passion.' What need to multiply illustrations of what is self-evident that mathematics, of which the very genius is generalisation, without liipping into particulars, soors from generality to gene- rality ! I shall attempt, however, to illustrate a little more fully the method of mathematical physics, hoping that the professed mathematician would pardon in an amateur particular errors, ' JSi modo plura mihi bona sunt,' if only the general view is correct. (,)n the theory of sound we .obtain an expression for an atmospheric wave involving two (almost) indejpe ndcnt arhitrat^ functious,^ j> (n 6 at — x) + yp- {ndat + x). Without sajjpo- sing the forms of uA its energy. So, in the social system, we must accus- tom ourselves to believe that the importance in respect to the utilitarian greatest possible quantity of each class is not necessarily iti proportion to iw numbei-a. More energy of pleasure, more tvepye'icu in the Oracular lan- guage of ArL«totle, may exist in one poet than many boors ; in Athens than the rest of Hellas, in Hellas than Barbaria; in a century of the age of Phidias, than a thousand years of the declining Roman Empire. No doubt this property is implicit in the definition of integral pleasure HH defined, for instance, in tie third Appendix. But the conception of an tn- tegral b not, perhaps, so familiar to the unmathematical as not to desiderate illustration. c 90 APPENDICES. ciples and their statical analogues present abundant instances of raatheToatical reasoning about loose, indefinite relations. We know, in each case, that the energy of a system to which impulses (or finite forces) have been applied is the maximum or minimum consistent with certain data. Without knowing the data precisely, we may obtain certain general ideas of the arrangement of energy in the system under consideration. Thus, if the masses of any part or parts of a material system are diminished, the connections and configuration being un- altered, the resulting kinetic energy under given (however complex and nndefined) impulses from rest must be increased.* If the stiffness in any part or parts of the system be diminished, the connection remaining unchanged, the potential energy of deformation due to given force applied firom without will be increased.* Diminution in the premisses, increase in the conclusion, loose, indefinite relations ! So again, I think, if certain velocities be imparted by impulses to the bounding surface of an incompressible liquid, we may obtain, without having more than a general idea of the distribution of these given velocities, a general idea of the resulting motion, by reasoning, from the Thomsonian principle, that the motion of the liquid is un-rotatory, that the motion of each particle is perpendicular to a certain velocity-potential surface passing through it, one of the series of such surfaces being the bounding surface, &c. Compare with the last two paragraphs the reasonings in moral science. By first principles the arrangement (of social institutions, &c.) productive of maxi- mum pl«3asure holds. Without deducing precisely what this best arrangement is, we may obtain mathematically a general idea of it as that one arrangement is better than another. Upon analogous principles in statical electricity, we know that, if there be a given distribution of electricity over the conductors in a field, the strains throughout the dielectric are such that the potential energy of the whole system is a mini- mum.' We may not know the precise form of the functions which express the distribution of electricity over the conduc- tors; much less, if we had these data, would we be able to ' WRtaon & Burbury, Gcnernliiied Co-ordinates. • Ibid. 3 Clerk-MaxweU, Electricity, Arts. 08, 00. UNNUMERICAL MATHEMATICS. 91 calculate the potential, the function whose respective dififer- entials shall give the strain in each direction at any point.' Yet it is something both tangible and promising to know mathematically that the potential energy is a minimum. That something is the type of what mathematical psychics have to teach. Analogous remarks are applicable to the somewhat analogous theorem of ^ minimum energy of electric currents ; in a higher dimension, as I think it may be said, and of the nature of what may be called moriientuTn-jpotential rather than force-potential. II. It is the first principle of the calculus of variations that a varying quantity attains a maximum when the first term of variation vanishes, while the second term is negative (mutatis mutandis, for a minimum). The latter condition is one of those loose, iTidefinite relations which we have been aU along describing. In the simple cases which in the infancy of Mathe- matical Psychics are alone presented in these pages,^ we know by observation not what the second term is, but that it is continually negative. In more complicated cases the re- sources of mathematics are exhausted in calculating, not a definite nnmerical, but a loose, indefinite relation, the. sign of the second term. The reader should consider Jacobi's method of discrimination, as stated, for instance, by Mr. Todhunter ; * and Mr. Todhunter's application of the same to a particular problem,* and realise how a mathematical reasoning may turn upon the loose, indefiinite relations of positive or negative, convex or concave. Consider also the many of Mr. Todhunter's ' Miscellaneous Observations ' directed to the same relation. All through the calculus of varia^- tions the relation is of paramount importance, constituting, indeed, all the difference between a maximum and mini- mum. You find continually, in the statement of a problem, ' Compare Mill's or rather Comte's double objection against Mathematics in Social Science : that the premisses are unattainable, and the reasoning- impossible. — Logic, book iv. ch. 24, p. 9. 2 Clerk- Marwell, Art. 283. ' See above, pp. 61-65. * Researches in the Calculus of Variations, pp. 21-26. * Ibid, pp. 2fr-30. 92 APPENDICES. the condition that a required curve shall be, or shall not be, convex ; ' so rough and unshaped are the materials with which mathematics is able to build. Now this very relation of con- cavity, not a whit, more indefinite in psychics than in physics, constitutes a main pillar of utilitarian calculus ; quarried from such data as the law of decreasing utility, of increasing fatigue, of diminished returns to capital and labour ; for the exact statement and proof of which the reader is referred to the economical writings of Professor Jevons and Principal ^Marshall. It may be said that the former condition of a maximum mentioned lately, the equation of the first term of varia- tion to zero, is of a definite precise rather than a loose indefinite character. But, again, it is to be repeated that all the data of mathematical psychics are not indefinite, but only (as in the case of physics) some. Accordingly, from this equation to zero, combined with an irulefinite. datum^ the increase of one quan- tity with another, of capacity for happiness with evolution, we niay deduce another indefinite quantitative relation, namely, in- crease,^ or diminution of share oimeaTia in utilitarian distribution. There are two other leading principles of the calculus of variations which seem calculated to illustrate the method of psychics. First, a consideration of first principles C prior, it may be observed, to any particular measurements or determination of the forms of functions), shows that if the ' Haupt Gleichung,' as Stranch calls it, the leading — in general differential — eqiia- tion, which must be satisfied in order that the first term of variation should vanish, breaks up into factors, there are, or rather may be,^ several solutions, several different functions, each corresponding to a maximum or minimum. (In the simple cases alone presented in these pages, or rather in the companion paper, in which the expression whose maximum is sought does not involve any differential co-efficients, say TT = I F (y x) d X between limits, where y is an independent variable function ; then, if -=— breaks up into factors, there dy ' Researches in the Calculus of Vanatums, pp. 80, 117, 286. ' Above, p. 68. ^ Todhunter's Researches, p. 262. UNNUMERICAL MATHEMATICS. 93 will in general, I think, be multiple solutions.") A curve between two given points required to fulfil some maximum condition may be discontinuous, may be made up of the different solutions, one step according to one law, and the next step according to another law.' But the different laws or function, though they may thus be employed successively, are not to be mixed and compounded. Any one portion of the required curve mast (in general and subject to the exceptions of the following paragraph), obey soTne one of the laws supplied by the solution of the Haujpt Gleichung. It is submitted that this property has its counterpart in human affairs ; the fact that there are sometimes two best ways of attaining an end — if the superlative best may be employed in a technical sense analogous to the superlative maximuvi. To realise the best, one or other course must be adopted, not a confusion of the two. The subject of discontinuity leads up to another general remark. It is not universally necessary that the first term of variation should vanish. It suffices for a maximum that the first term of variation should be known to be negative (and obversely for a minimum). Such knowledge is generally the result of imposed conditions ; as in Mr. Todbunter's problems that a curve must not pass outside a given boundary, must not exclude a given point, must be convex. It is submitted that such complicating imposed conditions have some analogy with the conditions imposed by necessity upon practical politics and applied utilitarianism. For ^p6v7)<7ts has often to be con- tent not with the best course, but the best subject to existing conditions. Compare the subtle spirit of Mr. Todbunter's calculus of variations with the subtle, and as the * plain man ' might almost suppose, sophistical spirit of Mr, Sidgwick's method of utilitarianism, when it comes to be applied to the actual world in -which we live. The abstract maximum, in psychics as well as in physics, is comparatively simple ; but the concrete is complicated by imposed conditions; and the complexion of a wise benevolence, in view of each established constitution, custom, church, is affected with a congenital re- semblance to the wily charms of the calculus of variations. ' Todhunter, ^ffMtMi, 94 APPENDICES. n. ON THE IMPORTANCE OF HEDONICAL CALCULUS. It may be objected that mathematical psychics, though possible, are not valuable ; I say valuable rather than, what might be understood in a too restricted sense, useful. For no philosophical objector would maintain that the love of the soul for the universal is then only legitimate, when it has been blessed with the production of the useful. The love of the soul for the universal is undoubtedly capable of extravagance, as in the devotion of Plato to the idea. ' Amor ipse ordinate amandus est.' But the limits are to be traced by a loving hand, and not to be narrowed by a too severe construc- tion of utility. The great generalisations of mathematics have perhaps been pursued and won less for the sake of utility to be produced, than for their own charm. Certainly the superior genius who reduced the general dynamical problem to the discovery of a single action-function was as much affected by the ideal beauty of 'one central idea,' ' as by the practical con- sequences of his discovery. In the example first cited from Thomson and Tait, it might have happened that the generalised (.-o-ordinates employed did not yield that 'first vindemiation ' of truth above described (p. 85). Yet the Lagrangian conception <»f considering the energy of the whole system as a function of the position and velocities of the immersed bodies would still" have been legitimate, and great, and promising. The Gossenian, the Jevonian thought of referring economics to pleasure as the central ide^ might be equally splendid, though unfruitful. And so Mr. G. H. Darwin, in his review of Professor Jevons's ' Political Economy,'^ appears, not without reason, to prefer the mathematical method on theoretical, abstracted from practical, grounds. Professor Cairnes * himself admits that the mathematical method might be useful, though not indispensable. If so, the • Sir William R. Hamilton, Philosonhiccd Trimsactions, 1834, 1836. * Fortnightly Review, 1876. ^ Preface to Logical Method. IMPORTANCE OF HEDONICS. 95 position of the mathematical method in economics might be compared, perhaps, to that of quaternions, which calculus, even if it conduct to no theorem not otherwise deducible, yet, in the opinion of some ' competent judges, deduces theorems already known more elegantly and, as it may be said, naturally and philosophically, than the blind and elephantine formulae usually employed for the purpose. At any rate, is it for one who is not conversant with both methods to oflfer an opinion on their relative value ; to declare forbidden, without having himself trodden, the sublimer path ? But is the method unfruitful in social science ? The black list in our appendix may show the possibility that mathema- tical ' reason is here no guide, but still a guard.' But I go further, aud challenge the a7fa)/i.fT^77Toy to answer the following exajnination paper. Social Problems to be solved without Mathematics. 1. A communistic sr>ciety owns land of varj-ing degrees of fertility, which land it cultivates so as to obtain with a given quantity of labour the maximum of produce. Suppose the quantity of labour at the disposal of the community to be suddenly increased, how will the new labour be distributed ? Will more or less additional labour be employed on any acre according as it is more or less fertile, or otherwise ? 2. WTien Fanny Kemble \-isited her husband's slave planta- tions, she found that the same (equal) tasks were imposed on the men and women, the women accordingly, in consequence of their weakness, suffering much more fatigue. Supposing the husband to insist on a certain quantity of work being done, and to leave the distribution of the burden to the philanthropist, what would be the most beneficent arrangement — that the men should have the ssune fatigue^^ or not only ynore task, but viore fatigue ? 3. Commodities being divided into two species, those whose expenses of production (do not diminish or) increase as the * Cf. Tait, Edinburgh Philosophical Transactions, 1825. * Cf. Mill's Theory of equal sacrifice in taxation. 96 APPENDICES. amount increases and those whose cost of production diminishes with the amount produced ; show that it is abstractedly expe- dient to tax one of these species rather than the other, and even to tax one so as to bounty the other (Marshall's theorem). 4. Commodities being divided into two species^ according as a slight decrease of price is, or is not, attended with a consider- able increase of demand, which species is it abstractedly pre- ferable to tax ? ' 5. The labour market, from an indefinite number of masters and men competing on each side, is transformed by trades- unions and combinations of masters into a small number of competing (corporate) units on each side. Can this transform- ation be advantageous to both sides ? 6. It has been said that the diMnbution of net produce between cooperators (labourers and capitalists associated) is arbitrary and indeterraiyiate. Discuss this question, 7. Mr. Sidgwick in the * Methods of Ethics ' (iv. chap, i.), having defined the utilitarian end as the greatest possible sum of pleasures, proceeds to observe that with a view to this end pgiial distribution of happiness, though not necessarily of the means of happiness, is desirable. Assuming what the author's not« seems to imply (cf. ' Methods of Ethics,' p. 256, 2nd edition), that individuals have their happiness differently re- lated io means, derive different amounts of happiness from the f^ame means ; show that to attain the end defined happiness and its means must be either both equally or both unequally distributed. There are those no doubt who see nothing in all this, tum- 'n\?i, an argument to the man who (with Professor Jevons), admitting mathematical reasoning about.self-regarding pleasures, denies the possibility of mathematically comparing ditferent persons' pleasures. Let us accordingly, with reference to this question of fiETptjrtKrj and pleasure-unit consider sepa- rately the quantitative estimate which a man can form (I.) of his own pleasure, (U.) of other people's. * Theory of Political Economy, p. 9. HEDOXIMETRY. 99 I. *Utilitj/ says Professor Jevons (writing exclusively of the first sort of measurement), * may be treated as a quantity of two dirroensiona.' ^ Now, when it is Eisked, * I n virt iip of- wha t unit is one intensity said to be grea ter than another?'^ the answer must b e, I think, * Just perceivable increments o f p leasure are eqiiatabie^ ' which may be shown, perhaps, by that sort of internal experience and handling of ideas which seems to be the method of attaining m^athematical axioms.^ Vnr if poss ible let on e jnit ]i i i i i i i ll r in r TTi"Tit b" yr-nfay^a,^ i^r. another . Then it must be preferred in virtue of some differ- ence of pleasurability (non-hedonistic action not existing, or not being pertinent to the present inquiry). But., if one of the i ncrements exceeds the other ^i pIPQcnraViilif-y , fV>pn th^f one i fi not a. ju.9t p f ^rr.p.i rn. hlp ^r\p.rpf n f^ J ]\ .^ bnt r,nnf;isit,fi of at leastA wo oii^K ^•p).|-pTr.oT^fo Of course such a way of turning the subject has no pretence to cZt-duction. The stream of thought ' mean- ders level with its fount.' Turn the matter as we please, there must, I think, be postulated some such equation as the above, which may be compared, perhaps, to the first principle of probabihties,' according to which cases about which we are equally undecided, between which we perceive no material dif- ference, count as equal ; a principle on which we are agreed to act, but for which it might be hard to give a reason. It must be confessed that we are here leaving the terra fimia of physical analogy. It may plausibly be objected, the just perceivable increment, the minimum sensibile, is not treated as a unit in the cases with which physics deal. Let us suppose that for the same objective increase of temperature or weight (as estimated by the approved methods of physics) I have at different times, or with different organs of my body, different subjective estimates. In one sense, certainly more usual, the quantities are the same. In another sense, the minima sensi- bilia being equated, wftat is felt is. And this latter sense, it is contended, not without hesitation, is appropriat-e to our sub- ject. ~Thn iprrnmrntn in r[unrti^n nrp/T thinlr^ tin lir rinvrd as * Tlieory of Political Economy, p. 51. ^ Cf. Plain on Axioms. ' Laplace, Euai P/u'loftophique mr let Probahilitis, 5th edit., p. 7. A 100 APPENDICES. 1 finite difFerences, ra ther thap_ a§,gmmiae- diffcrcntial s (a concep- ti^g ^hich iia«j; ;goF militAt^ witli the enipkj maent of ihp. Tint.a - tion of the diff erential calculus).^ The conception might be illustrated by that oflTTorce just sufficient to turn a balance overcoming friction. Why, however, each inclination of the will is treated as equal by the rational intelligence, of this, as already intimated, no proof is to be expected. Indeed, the equation, or equatability, in question exists not s o jnuch in fact as in the limit of perfect evj ilution. .Jifi-ioa- — perfect intellig ence does not trea t_a _nnit nf pl r mTivr in the fn?5x elas pqtKtl~To one in the prese nt. bstracting from the imnpi-f-.^inty of thp. fiitnr e. the mere circim3stan^ IjQi_iaturity aff eote the e^timato of a - plea sure ; which depreciation the Jevonian factor q ^ denotes, as I understand. Now it is only in theideaJLli mit that - ^ Hfecomes equal to unityr ' 50 far about the dimension of intensity. As to the dimen- sion of time a similar line of remark is open. The same ob- jective (say horological) t ime may correspond to different ra tes o f thought and J egling nt different p^rif7f|°j n,° Locke intimates.^ It is COnceiva ^^^ th^lt ^^" rf-^f^o ^ pff gpnt inpr tn r^n-nanin ^Ka- sh ould differ in this ratp n^ A^-^ And perhaps some states, intellectual exercise in particular, which philosophers have dis- tinguished as more good, t hough not i Tr"^'''^ ^leasurablea than others, may so differ. I n dreams, the rate seems high, t jhj^ in tensity _Jow. A nd r q j^ plpagiTrr Trnul^ hfiY" yi^t '^j]]j jh yu d imension s, as Professor Jevons says, but three dimensions, namely, objective time, subjp.ctivp timp, and intensitj r. And yet the correction may not seem very important, for probably it is more competent to consciousness to combine into a single mark the two considerations of rate and intensity. Suppose one state presents about three pleasufe-increments, ' another about two, above zero, that the rate of the former is double that of the latter, their objective duration being the ' See the remarks of Clerk- Maxwell, * Essay on Atoms/ Encyclopcsdia Britnnnica, p. 38. - Theory of Political Economy, p. 78. ' Compare As You Like it. Act iii. sc. 2, and elsewhere. Cf. Mr. Sullj^s remarks on Illusions of Perspective. HEDOJJIMETRY. 101 same, is it better to give two marks to each state, say three and two to the former, two and one to the latter, and then to mul- tiply the marks of each ; or by a sort of imconscious multiplica- tion to mark at once six and two — about ; for tiif^ (^.^mpnricnn of ni l i i iii ii r 1 n''i f" ■| ii n ii n'tj if] hrrf Tiflmittrd t^ W vngn^ ; not^ vagher perhaps tha n the comparisons made bv an examiner -a s to excellence, where nnmenp^l mArks are usefnlly prnployt^H. To precise the ideas, let there be granted to the sc ience of pic ture what is grant^^ ^^ ^bf^ gfienrp ff PTifrgy •; ' to imagine an ideally perfect instrument, a psychophysical machine, con- tinually registering the height of pleasure experienced by an individual, exactly according to the verdict of consciousness, or rather diverging therefrom according to a law of errors. From moment to moment the hedonimeter varies; the deUcate index now flickering with the flutter of the passions, now steadied by intellectual activity, low sunk whole hours in the neighbourhood of zero, or momentarily spjinging up towards infinity. The continually indicated height is registered by photographic or other frictionless apparatus upon a uniformly moving vertical plane. Then the quantity of happiness between two epochs is represented by the area contained between the zero-Hne, perpendiculars thereto -at the points corresponding to the epochs, and the curve traced by the index ; or, if the cor- rection suggested in the last paragraph be admitted, another dimension will be required for the representation. The in- tegration must be extended from the present to the infiaitely future time to constitute the end of pure egoism. II. Now it is here contended that there are as many, and the same sort of difficulties, in this estimate of pleasures by the sentient himself (which is yet admitted by Professor Jevons, and substantially by common sense), as in the estimate of other people's pleasures. We have only to modify our axiom thus : Apy lust perceivable pleasure-increment e jperienoed by a-ny sentjent at any tfrnt hrvn thn nmrrr^-nlnr The same primal mystery of an ultimate axiom hangs, no doubt, over this utili- tarian, as over the egoistic, first principle. The equation is only true in the limit of perfect evolution. The variation of s ubjective time fo r flifypr<^nf iTtH^ yi'Hiialg^ ^ Se« Clerk-Maxwell, TTwory of Heat, p. 139. 102 APPENDICES. p resents no gprftat er difficulty than the variation for one in- dividual. ■ T^e integration may be equally well illustrated by ideal mechanism. We have only to add another dimension express- ing the number of sentients, and to integrate through all time and over all sentience, to constitute the end of pure utilitarianism. It raa;jbe obje cted that the just perceivable in^ rfrn'^n^''? given by consciousness in the case of one's own pleasures, only i nfun ' cd in the uiac - ^ -others.' It may be replied, greater uncertainty of hedonimetry in the case of others' pleasures n;ay be compensated by the greater number of measurements, a wider average ; just as, according to the theory of probabilities, g Tipatf.r accuracy may be attained by rnore numerous -o bserv^a- tiaBa_ jyith a lesg^ ^ie iibot inst r u jBaent. Th e proposition. * the fjnr plf^snrp/ is proved hy taking a wide a^^^igg^gjjb^^ tb^^ ^J ihf^ self-obsefvatJTiST'nSowever accurate, of—t t oingl ^y perhaps -exceptionalfindividual. IV. OiV MIXED MODES OF UTILITARIANISM. The distinction between egoism and utiUtarianism has been drawn with matchless skill by Mr. ■ Sidgwick. But it has not been observed that between these two extremes, between the frozen pole of egoism and the tropical expanse of utilitarianism, there has been granted to imperfectly-evolved mortals an inter- mediate temperate region ; the position of one for whom in a calm moment his neighbour's happiness as compared with his own neither counts for nothing, nor yet * counts for one,' but counts for a fraction. We must modify the utilitarian integral as defined above (Appendix III.) by multiplying each pleasure, except the pleasures of the agent himself, by a fraction — a ' This is a distinction insisted on hy Mr. Herbert Spencer, in his remarks on utilitarianism. — Data of Ethics, p. 57. MIXED UTILITAEIANISM. 103 factor doubtless diminishing with what may be called the social distance between the individual agent and those of whose pleasures he takes account. There is not much more diflSculty about this intermediate conception than about the extremes. The chief diflRcultj is one which is common to the extremes, presented by the phe- nomena which ]\Ir. Sidgwick describes as the self-limitation of a method. For example, in a hfe ordered according to the method of pure utilitarianism there may be tracts of egoistic action, times when the agent gives fall swing to self-int-erest, leaving out of sight his utilitarian creed. The test whether such an agent is really a pure utilitarian would be, I suppose, whether on having his attention directed to the alternative between methods, having collected himself, in a cool moment, he would or would not calmly and deliberately sacrifice his ovm greatest happiness to that of others. It seems superfluous to labour a point which has been explained by JNIr. Sidgwick. Yet that there is some difficulty about this rhythm between sovereign and subordinate method may be inferred from the expressions of able thinkers. Thus, Mr. Spencer appears to employ ^ as an argument against utilitarianism the utilities of self-indulgence. ' For his wife he has smiles, and jocose speeches,' and so forth — the self-indulgent non-utihtarian. But, if self-indulgence and the not taking account of the general good has such an agreeable effect, the intelligent utilitarian will cultivate a temporary relaxation and forgetful- ness of his supreme principle. It never was meant that he should wrap himself up in his utilitarian virtue so as to become a wet ^ blanket to his friends. It never was meant, as Austin says, that the sound utilitarian should have an eye to the general good while kissing his wife. In order that one's life should be subordinated to the general good, it is not necessary that the general good should be always present to conscious- ness. If I have an hour to prove a theorem at an examination, I shall do well not to keep the quod est demonstrandum continually before the mind, but to let the mind range among theorems which may serve as premisses. If a man has a day to •write an article, though the whole time may be consecrated to > Data of Ethic*, chap. xi. » See Mr. Spencer's gloomy picture. 104 APPENDICES. the purpose, it may be expedient to banish the purpose during refreshment or exercise. You cannot disprove the authority of utilitarianism by proving the utility of egoistical, or any other, practice. To argue, then, that the utilities described by IVIr. Spencer could not be grafted upon pure utilitarianism would imply a different conception of a * method of ethics ' from that vrhich may be derived from Mr. Sidgwick's great work. That as a matter of fact the utilities of egoistic action do not now spring from a root of pure utilitarianism would be freely here admitted ; agreeing with the view suggested that the concrete nineteenth century man is for the most part an impure egoist, a mixed utilitarian. And the reconciliation between egoisTn and altruism^ gradual process and ideal limit beautifully described by Mr. Spencer, would be upon the view suggested here, the transfor- mation of mixed into pvu"e utilitarianism, the psychical side of a physical change in what may be dimly discerned as a sort of hedonico '-magnetic field. V. ox PROFESSOR JEVONS'S FORMULA OF EXCHANGE. Professor Jevons's formula, nli — ^^^^ = -,- is almost id en- , F' (x v^ V tical with our ^') '•< -( = ^, Almost ; for the notation here employed is slightly more general. The utility is regarded as a fimction of the two variables, not the sum of two functions of each. The inquiry suggested at p. 34, near -foot, could not have been suggested by Professor Jevons's formula. Our for- mula also is adapted to take account of the labour of produc- tioUy the 'compliciited double adjustment' glanced at by Pro- fessor Jevons.' Let X manufacture the article which he exchanges for y. ' Above, p. 14. * Theory, p. 108. » Theonj, p. 203. FORMULAE OF EXCHAJfGE. 105 Then (by a violent but not dangerous abstraction) his utility may be written V^F{f{e)-x,y)^J {e) where e is the objective measure of labour {e.g. time of work) ; / (e) is the subjective measure of work, the toilsomeness of fatigue ; / (c) is the produce, corresponding to e. Now, as e is not an article of contract, it appears that (-,- ) the partial differential with regard to e must always be equated to zero. Hence, by eliminating e we come on oiu- old form F (x y)^ or F ( — x, y\ as it is convenient here to write. This ' complicated double adjustment ' maybe illustrated by a brief reference to that interesting phenomenon pointed out by both Mr. Marshall and ^Mr. Walras, unMable eqiuUhriura of trade. From the point of \-iew here adopted the utility of a dealer in x may be written P = F ( — rr, y). Transformed to polar co-ordinates Ps=F(--p cos 0, p sin 6) ; when tan 6 expresses the rate of exchange. The demand-curve is [-7-]—^' ^"or this locus erprepses the utmost amount of dealing to which the dealer wiJJ consent at any given rate of exchange, the amount for which bis utility is a maximum at that rate. But the locus also expresses positions for which the utility is a minimum at any given rate. And this part of the locus is not in a genuine demand-curve. Each point represents a position not which the dealer will not consent to change, but which he would by all means wish to change. By a general property of analysis the maximum and minimum points are arranged alternately along any vector. This property is closely connected with the property of alternately stable and unstable equilibriuTn of trade. There are, however, I think, unstable positions where [ — — ) = does not correspond to a miTiimum, e.g. Mr. Marshall's figure 8. But the most important sort of instability is perhaps that which may be presented in the case of (]Mr. Marshall's) Class II ; of which, as I take it, the definition connects two properties 106 APPENDICES. (1) diminution of value in exchange upon increase of exports, with (2) diminution in the expense of production upon increase of wares produced for exportation. It is interesting to see from olur individualistic point of view how these two properties are connected. The analytic condition of the first property is ( Ll_ ] = + . For this condition must hold from the point P., where the property in question sets in (see figure) to the point Fig. 3. Pj, w^here the property ceases. At each of these points -^ = 0. The analytic condition of the second property of Mr. Marshall's definition (the first in the order of his statement) is - %\ - -= + J where (as before) e is the objective measure ^ of labour, /(e) is the amount of product corresponding to e. It may be shown, then, that [ -^ j can only be positive when -j^^ is positive. For, agreeably to previous notation, put Or 6 ' Other than that which the produce itself presents ; e.g., length of time during which a uniform muscular energy is put forth by a workman. FORMULA OF EXCHANGE. 107 P=r i^ (J(^e)—p COS 6, p sin 6)— J (e). Then we have always the condition ( -= — ) = 0, and we have to find -^ subject to this \deJ Idp'^J '' condition. Now, as 6 is throughout treated as constant, whereas e is considered as a variable, dependent on p, it will be d P convenient to denote the object of ovir inquiry as -/— without d p^ brackets, denoting by brackets differentiation, which is partial with respect to p, does not take account of e's variation. With tHi. noeauon, since (|Z) = 0,g = (g) . . (A^ J g where -— is to be found from the equation to zero of dp \d eJ \deJ~ T ~ dp" \dpdeJ de fd,F^ dj Therefore iZ= f^Jl) - 2 f ^Y dp^ \dpy -- \dpdeJ ■P m-'-d de" Now we may be certain this expression can only be positive when -J-'-^ is positive, ij we are certain of the laws of sentience which were postulated on a previous ' page. For, writing a for /(?) (the a employed in Professor Jevons's equation of exchange), and y for p sin 6^ we have fd^F\ d.F ^.f,^^ d^F . a n , d,F . ^ j% = j^, eos^ + 2 3-^— sm ^ cos ^ + -^ sm 0. \dp^J da^ dady dy^ (dZ\^d^Tdjn\dF dJ \de^J da^ IdeJ da de^ where it does not seem necessary to bracket the differentials on the right-hand side. Substituting these values in the expression ' Page 34. 108 APPEKDICES. d P for -J— we see that that expression is certainly negative upon these conditions : d P d W (1) -7*-, -^2 (both) continually not positive. (2) d^F dady dF (3) — continually not negative. (4) de^ d,f (5) -J.J not positive. ie The first condition is secured by Professor Jevons's law of diminishing utility, our first postulate (see p. 61). The second condition is an interesting variety of the same ; that the rate of increase of utility derived from one sort of wealth diminishes with the increase of other sorts of wealth. The third condition imports that utility at least does not decrease with increase of wealth ; which in a civilised country may be allowed. The fourth condition is Professor Jevons's law of increasing toilsomeness of labour,* our second axiom (see p. 65). d P If then these laws of sentience hold, — "^ can onl}' be posi- d p'^ d f tive when -^-^ is positive. It is submitted that this subordina- d e. tion — in however abstract and typical a form — of the more complicated phenomena of the market to the simple laws of sentience is not without interest. But to return to Professor Jevons : the formulae here em- ployed, along with a general, and perhaps it ought to be added a filial, resemblance to his, present two points of contrast which deserve especial attention : (1) Graphical illustration has been more largely employed here. Now in some sense pure Analysis may appear to be the mother-tongue of Hedonics ; which soaring above space and number deals with quantities of ' Theonj, p. 185. POR^nJL.E OF EXCHANGE. 109 pleasure, employing the Calculus of Variations, the most sub- lime branch of analysis,' as Comte, Caiaphas-like, called the branch most applicable to Sociology. But on the other hand the differential equations which occur in the theory of exchange are of such a peculiar character that it is rather difiBcult, as may presently appear, to handle them without geometrical apparatus. In this respect at least Mr. Marshall's preference for geometrical reasoning would seem to be justified.'^ (2) It has been prominently put forward in these pages that the Jevonian ' Law of Indifference ' has place only where there is competition, and, indeed, perfect competition. Why, indeed, should an isolated couple exchange every portion of their respective commodities at the same rate of ezchanfre? Or what meaning can be attached to sUch a law in their case ? The dealing of an isolated couple would be regulated not by the theory of exchange (stated p. 3l), but by the theory of simple contract (stated p. 29). This consideration has not been brought so prominently forward in Professor Jevons"s theory of exchange, but it does not seem to be lost sight of. His couple of dealers are, I take it, a sort of typical couple, clothed with the property of ' In^ difference,' whose origin in an 'open market' is so lucidly described ; ^ not naked abstractions like the isolated couples imagined by ;. De Quincey or Courcelle-Seneuil in some solitary region. Each is in Berkleian phrase a * representative parti- cular;' an individual dealer only is presented, but there is presupposed a class of competitors in the background. This might safely be left to the intelligence of the reader in the general case of exchange. But in deahng with exceptional cases (pp. 132, 134), a reference to first principles and the pre^ supposition of competition would have introduced greater pre- cision, and suggested the distinction submitted in these pages "(pp. 19, &c.), namely, that exchange is indeterminate, if eitJter (l)one of the trading bodies {qua individual or qua union) or (2) the commodity supplied by one of the dealers, be iiidi- visible or not 'perfectly divisible. The whole subject of the mathematical theory of exchange ' riiUosophie Positive, I^efon 8. "^ Foreign Trade, p. 19. ' Theory, pp. 08, 90. 110 APPENDICES. would be put in a clearer light by considering the objections which have been broxoght against Professor Jevons's theory by an able critic in the 'Saturday Review' (Nov. 11, 1871). The Reviewer says : ' When Mr. Jevons proceeds to apply this equa- tion to the solution of his problem, he appears to us to fall into a palpable blunder. Translated into plain English, the equation ^ = .-y^ means, as we see, simply that, however much com X . dx A gives to B, he will receive a proportionate quantity of beef in exchange. If he doubles the amount of com, that is, he will receive twice as much beef. But the other quantities are obtained on the contrary supposition, namely, that the rate of exchange will vary according to some complex law, determinable, if we could tell precisely what effect will be produced on the mind of the parties to the bargain, by the possession of varying quantities of beef and com. In fact x is now a function of y, as might easily be foreseen from Mr. Jevons's statement of the case, in quite a different sense from what it was before. The substitution, therefore, of - for — ^ is a mistake.' X dx I submit (1) the following is a significant problem. Given two differential equations F, { xy —^ ) = 0, Fj ( a;^ -j^ ) = 0, find V d xJ \ d xJ X and y two quantities such, that if each differential equation be solved, and thereby 2/ "for each be found as a function of a;, and thence for each— y-^ be derived as a function of x ; then, if dx X be substituted in both (functional) values of y^ and both (functional) values of -,^, (a) the two (quantitative) values of y are equal to each other equal to y, and (6) the two (quantita- tive) values of -^ ^ are equal to other. (2) The following is a solution of this problem. Eliminate ^ V- between the equations Fi (x y^^ = 0, F, (x y -^) ^ ; dx \ dxJ \ dx/ the resulting equation in x and y is the locus of the required point. (3) The problem and solution correspond to Professor Jeyons's problem and solution. FORifULiE OP EXCHANGE. Ill Let US take these propositions in order. (1) This proposition by its extreme bumblediness illustrates what was above said about the advantages of graphical illustra- tion. For the geometrical equivalent is simply : Eequired a point at which two curves each given by a differential equation (of the first order) meet and touch. Or even more briefly : Find the locus of contact between members of two families. The conception thus introduced is not only legitimate, but femiliarly employed in the Calculus of Variations, in those pro- blems where we have multiple solution subject to the condition i\at there shall be no abrupt change of direction. The reader will find any number in Mr. Todhunter's ' Kesearches.' I am not concerned to show that Mr. Todhunter's problems are exactly parallel to ours. They could not well be so involv- ing second, where they involve first, differentials. But it is easy to construct an exactly parallel problem with curves presented by maximum analysis, the source of our economical ciu-\'es. Take the straight line and the cycloid, the shortest line and line Fig. i. of quickest descent. A cycloid is generated by a circle of given diameter rolling on a given horizontal line, the starting-point of the circle — that is where the generating point M is on the horizontal line — being arbitrary. Find (the locus of) a point P on the cycloid such that if a particle starting from rest slide 112 APPENDICES. down the cycloid from the horizontal line as far as P, and there fly oflf at a tangent, it will pass through a given point 0. (2) The solution above offered is easily verified. Having eliminated -,- between Fj and Fj, take any point x y on the eliminant, and draw through it a curve of each family. Then Fj (x ypi) = 0; where p^ is the value of -^ for the first curve when X is substituted for x. Since the point is on the elimi- nant FjC^ yiP\) = ^' ^^^^ ^2 (f y Vi)—^' Therefore pi=_p2- Q.E.D. ' ' In the particular case just put let the differential equation of the cycloid' be _i= a /- " , and the differential equa- tion of the line _^ = ^(.~^ where p and g* are the co-ordinates of dx x — q the given point. Then the required locus is V y ^-q' a curve of the third degree passing through the given point, as it evidently ought, if it can ; for the given point may be too far from the horizontal line to be reached by generating circle or generated cycloid. In this last case the point is still the scene of contact between a cycloid and line, only the cycloid is imaginary. The mathematician is prepared for such freaks of analysis } the economist should be prepared for somewhat simi- lar freaks ^ on the part of his similarly obtained ' demand- curve.' To avoid misconstruction it may be as well to add that this solution by elimination of ^ would Tioi have been admissible if •^ dx ' See Todhunter's Diferential Calculus, p. 342. * Thus the origin, though nn intersection of the demand-cui-ves, is not in any sense a position of equilibrium ; not e\en being on the contract-curve. An-ain the altei-nate intersections of the demand-curves are (as Messrs. Mar- shall & Walras have shown) positions of trade-equilibrium only in name. And we have seen that similar caution is required in handling the analytical expresaioo of the contract-curve (p. 26). FORMULAE OF EXCHANGE. 113 there had been otJiefi' differentials besides those of the first order. Elimination would in this case have resulted in that sort of mongrel differential equation, ' Mixtumque genus pro- lemque biformem,' which the Reviewer may be supposed to have had dimly in view. (3) An attentive consideration of Prof. Jevons's problem will show that it is a case of the problem here proposed, whether in the language of pure analysis or of geometry. I take the latter for brevity and to illustrate its convenience. Taking for origin the point at which the deahng begins where x and y are zero, Ave see (a) by the law of indifference * that each dealer must move along a straight line given by the differential equation ■^ = - (the Reviewer sees this much). Again under the head- ing * Theory of Exchange ' ^ we may learn (6) that the -r^ which expresses the dealer's change of position is at the CJLjC point of equilibHum= ^^ ^ ~ ^ ' But by (a) the ^ which ex- ti (2/ ^^ ^ dx presses the dealer's change of position is continually^ - Therefore by the principles just now laid down the locus of the re- quired point is found by eliminating -=^ between (a) and (6) ; whence ?i-l_^ ^== " which is none other than our old friend the -^1 iy) ^ * demand-curve.' We may recognise another old friend in the equation -■,-^=?' ^ , , ^ considered as an ordinary differential equation. dx ^,(2/) •" ^ It is the differential equation of our * curves of indifference.'' The problem under consideration may be expressed : Find the locus of the point where lines from the origin touch curves of indifference. If (as before supposed) the ciirves of indifference consist of a series of circles round d. point C, then the locus of the point of contact to any curve of a tangent from is the locus of vertices of right-angled triangles described on OC ; that is, a semicircle described in OC, a result which of course might ' Theory, p. 98, et neq. ^ J>. 103, fqo. 114 APPENDICES. be obtained analytically according to the method here described. Transforming to the point of bisection of OC, and putting c= I OC, the equation of any indiflference-curve is (3/— c)'+a;*=r*. "Whence the differential equation of the family - -^ = — dx y — c. And the differential equation of a straight line from is Eliminating -j^ upon the principle here de- fended, we have x^ + y"^ = c^ the equation of a circle whose dx X Fig. 5. "^./ --^^TV" ^' -^. / / / \ / / ^'f / '' i \ \ diameter is OC. Q E D. The determination of a point by the intersection of the locus thus obtained, with another locus similarly obtained, presents no diflBculty. The conjoint deter- minate problem may, as we have already seen, be thus ex- pressed. Draw from the origin a straight line, whiph at the same point touches two curves of indifference. As we have seen, the problem of determinate exchange may be turned in a great variety of other ways. Turn it as you will, the essential cor- rectness of the formula under consideration emerges clearer! Meraea profundo ; pulchrior evenit. Luctere ; multa proruet integrum Cum laude Tictorem. FORMULAE OF EXCUANGE. 115 The remaining objections of the Saturday Reviewer against this formula are based upon the interpretation already shown to be erroneous that the formula is applied to solitary couples, such as those which political economists delight to place in lonely islands. It happens, indeed, that the Reviewer is not enabled by his literary method to deduce correct conclu- sions from these premisses of his own assumption.' But we are here concerned not with his fallacious reasoning from assumed premisses, but with his undue assumption of premisses or igno- rantia elenchi. "We are only concerned to show that his ob- jection does not apply to a typical couple in a market. He puts the case of A and B, dealing respectively in corn and beef, and supposes that at a certain rate 5 of com to 1 of beef A would exchange 20 of com against 4 of beef and no more. Kow, in so far as this objection might apply to the typical formula which we have been building — I do not say that the Reviewer aimed at this structm-e, but I am concerned to show that he does not hit it — it might import that a typical dealer would refuse to deal if the price of his article were to be raised, would not consent to such a rise of price, which surely requires no refutation. In symbols, P being the utility of dP dealer in x, and tan 9 the rate of exchange, -=-^ is continually + ; it being understood, of course, that movement is along the demand-curve of P ; for, as we are here concerned with typical indi^aduals in a market, there is no talk of movement other than along demand-curves, and the case put shows that the position of the index is on P's demand-curve, say at the point q (on the last figure). Well, then, subject to "this condition, namely i—^ — j= 0, P increases continually with 6. For dV fdV\^fdV\dp fdV\ dF.^dF . d-e = ^-dl) ^ K-djm^ {dw)= d^''''^''d^'''^ [P being here supposed = F (a — p cos 0, p sin 0) ], which is ' An attentive consideration of his Lypothesis will show that he sup- poses that there can he a settlement not ,(a - x) _ y _ cf)^{x) where yjr are the first differentials of 4> '^, and e.g., "^j (y) represents the utility to dealer No. 1 of the quantitv y of com- modity No. 2 ; in the simplest abstract case the pleasure to be at once obtained by the consumption of y, but in the general case the pleasure to be obtained both in the immediate and more distant future, reduced to the common measure so to speak of present pleasure (by way of the Jevonian factors for risk and remoteness)^ the pleasxxre I say to be thus obtained from having nx)w the quantify of y (whether to be consumed gradually or perhaps exchanged for other commodities). When the fact expressed by the symbolic statement has been grasped, it is only a dispute about words, whether we define (1) Supply of commodity No. I. = a. Supply of commodity No. II. = 6.' (2) Demand of commodity No. I. at rate of exchange (•'\ = a: (the usual definition, I think). • Demand of commodity No. II. at rate of exchange © = ' Theory, p. 108. ' Thfory, pp. 36, 38. •■' Cl'. Caimes, p. 117. CRITICISM OP CAERNES. 121 (3) Demand for commodity No. I. is measured by the quantity y exchanged for ic.' (?) (4) Demand is the desire for commodities, &c? Such language is justified, though it is not pretended that Caimes uses it with any definite meaning, by the first intention of the term * demand.' ^ In this case the demand for y might perhaps be represented by i/r (?/). But I know what angry susceptibilities are awakened by the dogmatic terms Supply and Demand, and decline a contest in a region which has been darkened by such clouds of dust. Professor Caimes's whole contention that ' cost means sacri- fice,' &c. (p. 60), may seem an unconscious tribute to the im- portance of the quantification and measiirement of the sense of sacrifice, subjective labour. If it is admitted that on the whole he uses his ' sacrifice ' and ' cost of production ' ^ as an objective not a subjective quantity, * cost as measured in number of days, labour, and abstinence ' (p. 389), our e rather than our / (e);* still he may seem both to have had the latter quantity in view, and to have foregone some of the advantages which would have been obtained by more clearly distinguishing it. Professor Caimes's erposition of the bargain between em- ployer and employed would probably have been enhanced by the use of demand-curves, one representing the quantity of work which the labourer is willing to give, and the other the (total) amount of remuneration which the employer is willing to give, at a certain rate of wages. It would have been sug- gested that the Wage-Fund or -Offer, though for a given rate of wages it have a determinate, has not necessarily a unique, value. The demand-curves may intersect more than once. It would not then, I think, be inconsistent with the premisses, though it might be with the conclusions, of Caimes, that the effect of a trades-imion might be to shift the position of the bargain from the first to the third (or rather from third to first) intersection. Also it would have been suggested as above, that, though the labourer might have less total remuneration in consequence of ' CJairnee, pp. 24, 25. ' Id. p. 21. ' Cf. Cixnyngham, Notct on Exchange Value, p. 1. * Cf. 62, 63, 79, &c. ' •=■ Appendix IV. 122 APPENDICES. a trades-union, yet he might have more utility, having less labour. Mr. Spencer. iVIr. Spencer has * tried' the Utilitarianism of Mr. Sidgwick (' Data of Ethics '), and condemned it ; but had the procedure been according to the forms of quantitative science the verdict might have been different. ' Everybody to count for one ' is objected to Utilitarianism,' but this equation as interpreted by Mr. Spencer does not enter into Mr. Sidgwick's definition of the Utilitarian End, greatest possible product of number x average happiness,* the definition symbolised above.' Equality of distinction is no proprium of this definition; ato contraire.*^ Not ' everybody to count for one,' but ' every just perceivable increment of pleasure to count for one,' or some such definition of the pleasure unit,* is the utilitarian principle of distri- bution. (S. 85.) The case of A B, C D, producers, among whom the produce is to be distributed, presents no theoretical difficulty to the * impartial spectator,' armed with the Calculus of Varia- tions. The most capable of tvork shall do most work ; the most capable of pleasure shall have most produce.* How could the principle of equity be worked in the entangled case of co- operative work ? ' But to the principle of greatest happiness all is simple. Consider the whole produce as a given function of the fatigues of the labourers, the pleasure of each as a given function of his portion ; and determine the fatigues and the portions so that the sum of the pleasures, ininus the sum of the fatigues, should be the greatest possible, while the sum of the portions equals the whole produce.* (S. 86.) To insist that altruistic requires egoistic pleasure, is open to the remarks above made (Appendix IV.). As to the physical illustration (p. 228), grant that, in order that the whole may be heated, the parts must be heated. What then ? Is it not conceivable that to each part should be imparted just ^ Data of Ethics, ch. xiii. ' Book iv. ch. 1, § 2. ^ See above, p. 57. * See Index gub voce Equality. * See above, p. 8. • See above. ^ See above, p. 51. ' Se« above, p. 64-67. CKITICISM OF MR. SPENCER. 123 that amount of heat •which may conduce to anintegi'al tnaxirtium. The illustration suggests a very different view from the author's, viz., that there should not be ' equalness of treatment.' Let us state, as the end to be realised, that the average temperature of the entire cluster, multiplied by the number of the elements, should be the greatest possible. Let us suppose that the elements have different thermal capacities^ or that the same amount of energy being imparted causes different increases of temperatiu-e ; and (not troubling oiuselves about the conserva- tion of energy) that each element, without diminishing its own temperature, increases by radiation the temperature of its neighbours. If thermal capacity (the received definition of the term being inverted for the sake of the metaphor) ' and power of radiation and absorption go together,^ then the larger por- tions of a given fund of energy shall be assigned to higher capacities. The possibility of differences of capacity in the final state of equilibrium does not seem to be entertained by the author. But can we receive this ? Can we suppose that the Examina- tion-list of the Future will consist of an all-comprehensive bracket ? If capacities for work differ, possibly also capacities for pleasure.^ If either or both species continue to differ, Utilitarianism, it is submitted, will continue to have a function not contemplated by the Data, unequal distribution. A general agreement has been already ^ expressed with the author's view that Pure Utilitarianism is not now absolutely right. Some comment, however, may be made upon the suggested comparison between 'absolute' rightness in the case of an irregular imperfectly evolved society and mathematical certainty in the case of ' crooked lines and broken-backed curves.' Take a piece of string as crooked and broken-backed as you please, and impart to its extremities given impulses. Then it is mathematically deducible and accurately true * that * See Clerk-Maxwell, Heid, p. 65. ' Capacity for self-regarding and for sympathetic pleasures, each pro- bably mcreaang with evolution. ' See above, p. 59, and below, p. 131. * Appendix IV. * Bertrand's Theorem, Thomwin & Tait. Cf. "Watson & Burbury, Gene- ridised Co-ordinate$, Arts. 16, 17. 124 APPENDICES. the initial motion of each element is such that the whole initial energy of the string shall be maximum. No doubt to actually determine by the Calculus of Variations the motion for each element, we must know the (original) form of the string. If that form is broken-backed, a definite curve may be hypotheti- cally assumed. So then it might be even now absolutely right that each individual should act so that the general happiness, as defined by Pure Utilitarianism, should be a maximum ; though what that action is can only be approximately de- termined. Mr. Sidgwick. i\Ir. Sidgwick's Economical reasonings have been already noticed. Close and powerful as these reasonings are, it has been impossible to conceal the impression that this distinguished analyst would have taken the field in Economical speculation in a manner more worthy of himself if he had not embraced the unfortunate opinions of Cairnes • upon the application of Mathematics to Political Economy. Probably the only flaws in Mr. Sidgwick's ethical analysis are where mathematical safeguards were required. In the * Methods of Ethics,' « after defining the Utilitarian End as the greatest simi of happiness, he supposes (as I under- stand, but it is always very difficult to catch hold of those who use ordinary language about mathematical subjects) that happinesSj though not the means of happiness, should be distributed equally. But this supposition is repugnant to his definition. For, in general, either the capacities for happiness (as defined above, p. 57) are, or are not, equal. If they are equal, then both happiness and means should be distributed equally ; if unequal, neither (p. 64). The supposition, then, that happiness, though not the means of happiness, should be distributed equally, is in general repugnant to the Utilitarian End. ■ Fortnightbj Jtevieto, February, 1879, p. 310. It is not for one whose views about cbaDges in the * general purchasing power of gold ' are very hazy to criticise a theory of that subject. It may be allowable, however, to mention that the haze has not been removed by the theory of * aggregate price,' &€., advanced in the article cited. = Book iv. p. 386. CRITICISM OP MR. SIDGWICK. 125 In general ; for the beauty of mathematical analysis ' is that it directs our attention not only to general rules but to excep- tions. Suppose the two properties which constitute the defini- tion of capacity for happiness not to go together, as in the third imperfection of that definition noticed on the same page ; then it is just possible that a given distribuend would be most felicifically distributed among given distributees when the happiness, though not the means of happiness, should be distributed equally. The interpretation that Mr. Sidgwick, in the passage just discussed, has in view difierences of capacity for happiness, is confirmed by explicit recognition of such (p. 256), * Some require more and some less to be equally happy.' The pro- blem raised in that context is not treated with mathematical precision. *We should have to give less to cheerful, con- tented, self-sacrificing people, than to the selfish, discontented, and grasping, as the former can be made happy with less.' The case would seem to be this : the minimum of means corre- sponding to the zero of happiness (above, p. 64) is higher for the discontented than the cheerful ; for values of means above that minimum the cheerful have greater capacity for happiness. If, then, the distribuend be sufficient to admit of all at least reaching the zero of happiness, then the cheerful shall have a larger portion of means. (See above, pp. 57, 65.) These are shght steps of reasoning ; but they are at an enormous height of generalisation, where a slip is ruin. ^ I cannot refrain from illustrating this proposition by one more re- ference to Principal Marshall's and Professor Walras's similar— doubtless independent — theory of multiple intersection of demand-curve^ xmstable equilibrium of trade. 126 APPENDICES. vn. OiV THE PRESENT CRISIS IN IRELAND. The consideration, however superficial, of a real case may serve to put our method in a clearer light. Let us suppose, then, that an intelligent reader, attracted by the heading of this Appendix, inquires of what possible use can Psychical Mathe- matics be in real life ? First, it must be pointed out that deductive reasoning is not to be too sharply pulled up with the demand, * What then do you propose ? ' For, even if this highly deductive method should prove more potent than the present tentative sketch may warrant, it would have power only to give general instruc- tions, not detailed regulations. From such a height of specula- tion it might be possible to discern the outlines of a distant country, but hardly the by-paths in the plain immediately below. Mathematical Psychics would at best fiunish a sort of pattern- idea to be roughly copied into human affairs ; ' in the language of modem Logic hypothetical deductions to be corrected and verified by comparison and consilience with experience. This general character of deductive reasoning in Sociology has been exhibited by Mill theoretically at length in his * Logic,' and practically by repeated cautions in his 'Political Economy.' The steps of Mill are followed by almost all considerable writers upon method — Comewall Lewis, Caimes, Bain, Mr. Jevons in the ' Principles of Science,' Mr. Sidgwick in behalf of ' Econo- mic Method ' renouncing pretensions to precision of detail. It cannot be expected that so terse a treatise as the present should go over ground exhausted by such writers. We must take for granted that our intelligent inquirer understands what is intelligible to the intelligent. If he believe 'not the autho- rities just cited, it would not be worth our while to resuscitate considerations loug consecrated by universal acceptance. We can only consider the position of one who, understanding in a general way the nature and the need of deductive reasoning in Sociology, draws the line at deductions couched in the language of literature, refusing to employ as signs of general conceptions ' Cfl n«k», Me^Mic, b. vi. & 501. POLITICAL UTILITAIIIAXISM. 127 mathematical symbols along ^ith ordinary words. The theo- retical weakness of this position is that there is no logical ground for drawing the line, other than the prejudice that ma- theTnatical reasoning imports numerical data. Such, in fact, appears to be the ground on which the objections against econo- mical mathematics are based by Caimes ; Caimes, whose opinion on this subject is shared by a stOl more distinguished analyst.' This prejudice having been cleared away,* why should not general reasonings about quantities be assisted by the letters appropriate to the science of quantity, as well as by ordinary words ? ' Ego cur, acquirere pauca si possum, invideor ? ' the generalising genius of Mathematics unanswerably demands. Practically, the objection solvitur ambula^ido, by the march of science which walks more securely — over the ' flux and through the intricate — in the clear beam of mathematical in- tuition. The uses of this method may have been already illustrated, at least by reference to the achievements of mathe- matical economists. It will, however, be attempted here to present some further illustration, introduced by the conspicuous case of a country convulsed by political conspiracy and econo- mical combination. (I.) First as to the political aspect of the case has Calculus anything to teach ? Nothing as to practical politics ; but as to the first principles of political theory perhaps something. What is the first principle of politics ? Utilitarianism, it would be replied by most intelligent persons of the nineteenth century, if in diflferent terminologies, yet virtually with one accord. Of this basis what is the ground ? Here we leave the visible con- structions of external action descending into a subterraneous region of ultimate motives. The motives to Political Utilitarianism are the same as in the case of Ethical Utilitarianism, some would say; and they would have to grope for a proof of utilitarianism, such as Mr. Sidgwick grasps at with one hand, while with the other hand he grasps the polar principle. His method proceeds by comparing ' Fortnightly Reviero, 1879^ Economic Method. ' See pp. 2-6, and Appendix I. ' To treat variables as constants is the characteristic vice of the unmathe- matical economist. Many of the errors criticised by M. Walras are of this character. The predHerminate Wage-fund is a signal bstance. 128 APPENDICES. deductions from the utilitarian first principle with moral senti- ments observed to exist ; * philosophical intuitionism ' does not come to destroy common-sense, but to fulfil it, systematising it and rendering it consistent with itself. Now this method may be assisted, with regard to certain quantitative judgments of common sense, by the science of quantity ; ' proving these moral judgments to be consilient with deductions from Utilitarianism, clipping off the rough edges of unmethodical thought. But to others it appears that moral considerations are too delicate to support the gross structure of political systems ; at best a flying buttress, not the solid ground. It is divined that the pressure of self-interest must be brought to bear. But by what mechanism the force of self-love can be applied so as to support the structure of utilitarian politics, neither Helvetius, nor Bentham,^ nor any deductive egoist has made clear. To expect to illuminate what Bentham has left obscure were presumptuous indeed. Yet it does seem as if the theory of the contract- curve ' is calculated to throw light upon the mysterious process by which a crowd of jostling .egoists tends to settle down into the utilitarian arrangement. Thus the terms of the social contract are perhaps a little more distinctly seen to be the conditions of ' Greatest Happi- ness.' If the political contract between two classes of society, the landlord and the tenant class for instance, is disturbed, affected with the characteristic evil of contract * undecidable * strife ' and deadlock, the remedy is utilitarian legislation ; as is already felt by all enlightened statesmen. Considerations so abstract it would of course be ridiculous to fling upon the flood-tide of practical politics. But they are not perhaps out of place when we remount to the little rills of sentiment and secret springs of motive where every course of action must be originated. It is at a height of abstraction in the rarefied atmosphere of speculation that the secret springs of action take their rise, and a direction is imparted to the pure^ ' See above, pp. 76-80. And cf. the p-oof of utilitarianism in New and Old Methods of Ethics (by the present writer). ' I take the view which Mr. Sidgwick takes (^Fortnightly Revietc) of Bent ham's aims, and of his success. * CoroUaiy, p. 53. ■• Above, p. 29, EQUALITY. 129 fountains of youthful enthusiasm whose influence will ulti- mately affect the broad current of events. The province of ends is thus within the cognisance of Mathematics. "WTiat shall we say of intermediate, or proxi- mately final, principles ? The quantitative species of * Reason is here no guide, but still a guard,' at present ; and might con- ceivably be something more in some distant stage of evolution related to the present (agreeably to the general description of evolution) as the regularity of crystallization to the violent irregular movements of heated gas. Let us take a question suggested, however remotely, by our heading. When ' peasant proprietorship,' ' expropriation of landlords,' and even more communistic schemes, are talked of, there are those whose way of thinking carries them on to inquire whether the level of equality is a thing so much to be desired 'per se, and abstracted from the expediencies of the hour, and even the age. The demagogue, of course, will make short work of the matter, laying down some metaphysical ' rights of man.' Even Mill never quite disentangled what may be a proximate from what is the final end of utilita,rianism. And it is much to be feared that a similar confusion between ends and means is en- tertained by those well-meaning, generally working, members of the social hive, who seem more concerned about the equi- lateralness of the honeycomb than the abundance of the honey. But the very essence of the Utilitarian is that he has put all practical principles in subjection, under the supreme principle. For, in that he has put all in subjection under it, he has left none that is not put under it. How then is it possible to deduce Equality from * Greatest Happiness ; the symmetry of the Social Mechanism from the maximum of pleasure-energy? By mathematical reasoning such as that which was offered upon a pre\T[ous page,' or in an earlier work,^ such as had already been given by Bentham and the Benthamite William Thompson. Bentham, who ridicules the metaphysical rights of man and suchlike * anarchical fallacies,' ^ Above, p. 64. ' New and Old Methods of Ethics. Tlie reasoning was offered in ignor- ance of tbe analogous Benthamite reasoning. 130 APPENDICES. reasons down from Greatest Happiness * to Equality by a method strictly mathematical ; even though he employ * repre- sentative-particular ' numbers'* rather than general sjrmbols. The argument might be tnade palpable by a parallel argument, constructed upon another of the great arches of exact social science, or those concave functions, as they might be called, in virtue of which the Calculus of Variations becomes applicable to human affairs — the law of diminishing returns. A given quantity of labour (and capital) will be expended most produc- tively on a given piece ofc land, when it is distributed uniformly, equally, over the area ; by a parity of reasoning which makes palpable the parity of proviso : provided that there be no dif- ferences of quality in the ground. If, speaking both literally and in parable, there is (indication and probability of) difference ; if for the same seed and labour some ground brought forth a hundredfold, some sixtyfold, some thirtyfold, the presumption is that more should be given to the good ground. Is there then any indication of such difference between sentients ? We may not refuse once more to touch this ques- tion, however unwelcome to the modem reader ; otiose to our unphilosophical aristocrats, and odious to our democratical philosophers. (i.) First, then, it may be admitted that there is a difference with respect to capacity for happiness between man and the more lowly evolved animals ; and that therefore — among or above other considerations— the interests of the lower creation are neglectible in comparison with humanity, the privilege of man is justified. Or if any so-called utilitarian, admitting the practical, conclusion, refuses to admit its sequence from the premiss, affirming some first principle in favour of the privi- lege of his own species, he must be gently reminded that this affirmation of first principles not subordinate to the Utilitarian Principle is exactly what the great utilitarian 'called *ip8e- dixitism ' ; and also — in case he protests against the ohgarchieal ' Bentham apud Dumont, TraitSa de Ugitlation: Code Civil,eh. ti. ; Pi-inciples of Pathology (Bowring's edition), vol. i. ; ib. vol. ii, 228, &c. ; thua evincing a perfectly clear idea of the utilitarian end, more than might have been inferred from some of his phraseology. * Often a precarious method. Cf. Marshall, Foreign Trade, ch. L p. 4. EQUALITY. 131 tendencies of our position — that he, not we, is the oligarch, the ohgarchical demagogue levelling down to himself, and there drawing the line. But the pure Utilitarian, drawing no hard and fast line, according to the logical divisions of scholastic genera or pre-Darwinian Real Kinds, and admitting no ultimate ground of preference but quantity of pleasure, * takes every creature in and every kind,' and * sees with equal eye,' though he sees to be unequal, the happiness of every sentient in every stage of evolution. (n.) Again, it may be admitted that there are differences of capacity for work, corresponding, for example, to differences of age, of sex, and, as statistics about wages prove, of race. It would be a strange sort of rational benevolence which in the distribution of burdens would wish to equahse the objective circumstance without regard to subjective differences. (m.) Now (as aforesaid ') the admission of different relations in different individuals between external circumstances and internal feeling in the case of one species of (negative) pleasure is favourable to the admission of such differences in the case of other species of pleasure, or pleasure in general. Not only do we see no reason why the latter difference, if agreeable to ob- servation, ought not to be admitted ; but also we see a reason why it has not been admitted or not observed. For in the former case we have what in the latter case we have not, the same quantity of feeling in different individuals corresponding to different values of an ext,emal variable, namely the (neigh- bourhood of) the infinite value of fatigue to different external limits of work done. And everyone is acquainted with those whose physical or intellectual power he himself could not equal, *not even if he were to burst himself; ' whereas in the case of pleasure in general — owing apparently to the rarity or irregu- larity of the very high values of pleasure — we are reduced to the observation of different increments of pleasure occasioned by the same increment of means. But is this observation insufficient ? Or can it be indifferent to the utilitarian whether a given opportunity or increment of means is bestowed where it occasions but a single simple sen- suous impression of fiov6')(povos rjhovT), or a pleasure truly * Above, p. 59, •|^22 '"*™^' APPE^^)ICES. called * higher,' or * liberal,* or * refined ' — integrated by redin- tegrating memory, multiplied by repeated reflection from the * polished breast ' of sympathisers, in fine raised to all the powers of a scientific and a romantic imagination? Can we think it indifferent whether the former or the latter sort of sentience shall be put into play ? (iv.) Put into play, or brought into existence. For at what point shall we stop short and refuse to follow Plato while, inspired with an ' unconsciously implicit,' ' and sometimes an explicit,'* utilitarianism, he provides for the happiness (it is submitted, with due deference to Aristotle '), not only of the present, but of succeeding generations ? Or should we be affected by the authority of Mill, conveying an impression of what other Benthamites have taught openly, that all men, if not equal, are at least equipotetitial, in virtue of equal educa- tabihty ? Or not connect this impression with the more transi- tory parts of Mill's system : a theory of Eeal Kinds, more Noachian than Darwinian, a theory of knowledge which, by giving all to experience gives nothing to heredity, and, to come nearer the mark, a theory of population, which, as pointed out by Mr. Galton (insisting only on quantity of population) and, taking no account of difference of quality, would probably re- sult in the ruin of the race ? Shall we resign ourselves to the authority of pre-Darwinian prejudice ? Or not draw for our- selves very different consequences from the Darwinian law? Or, rather, adopt the * laws and consequences ' of Mr. Galton ? * To sum up the powers claimed for our method : if in some distant stage of evolution there may be conceived as practicable a distinction and selection, such as Plato adum- brated in the * Republic, ' the selected characters perhaps not so dissimilar from the Platonic ideal — wise and loving, with a more modem spirit both of science and romance — but the principle of Selection, not intellect so much as feeling, capacity for happiness ; then the delicate ' reasoning about capacity * Mr. Sidgwick's happy phrase. * V.nWi(rTa yap bq tovto Xe'yrrat Kn\ XtXt^trm, ort ri fiiy af(f>eKifiov xoXov, TO bi ffkafttftotf alaxpov. — Plato's Repvhlic. » Poiifica, V. * Jfeteditnn/ Genntt: end of penultimate chapter. * Above, p. iJo. EQUALITY. 133 would seem to stand in need of mathematical, if not symbols, at least conceptions. And even at present it is well, at what- ever distance, to contemplate the potentiality and shadow of such reasoning. For though the abstract conclusions have no direct bearing upon practical politics (for instance, extension or redistribution of suffrage), determined by more proximate utilities — just as Bentham protests that his abstract preference for equality does not militate against the institution of property — nevertheless it can hardly be doubted that the ideal reason- ings would have some bearing upon the general drift and tendency of our political proclivities. And at any rate the history of all dogma shows that it is not unimportant whether a faith is held by its essential substance, or some accidental accretion. And the reasonings in question may have a use in keeping the spirit open to generality and free from preposses- sion, the pure ideal free from the accreting crust of dogma. From semi-a-priori ' innate perceptions ' dictated by an ' ana- lytic ' intelligence,' from * equity,^ and ' equalness of treatment,' and * fairness of division ; ' ^ which, if they gave any distinct direction at all (other, of course, than what is given by merely utilitarian^ considerations), would be very likely to give a wrong direction, meaning one which is opposed to the Univer- salistic Hedonism or Principle of Utility established by the more inductive methods of Sidgwick and of Hume. From dictates indistinct and confusing, or, if distinct — at least about a subject so amenable to prejudice as ' equalness ' and ' equity ' — most likely to be wrong. To show which danger it is suffi- cient (and it appears necessary, at a not unfelt sacrifice of deference) to observe that the same semi-a-priori method, ap- plied to Physics, in the course of a prolonged discussion of * Force ' and its * Persistence,' never clearly distinguishes, nay, rather confoimds, ' Conservation of Momentimi ' and ' Conserva- tion of Energy ' ! while it is distinctly stated that the law of the inverse square is ' not simply an empirical one, but one de- ducible mathematically from the relations of space — one of which the negation is inconceivable.'* Is it wise, is it safe, to ' Herbert Spencer, Data of Ethics, b. 62. « lb. 8. 60, p. 164. » lb. ss. 68, 69, elc. * Id. First Principle, s. 18. 134 APPENDICES. weight and cramp science with a-priori dogmas such as this — in view of the possibility of a Clerk-Maxwell after all discover- ing, by the ordinary (Deductive) method of Inductive Logic, that there is attraction between atoms according to a law of inverse fifth power ? An inductively deductive method in Sociology may have similar surprises for the dogmatic isocrat forthcoming ; but they will certainly not come, there will not come any development, if we resign ourselves with a Byzantine sloth to a-priority or other authority more dear to the utili- tarian ; not dissociating the faith of love from the dogma of e([uity, from the accreted party-spirit and isocratic prejudice of Benthamite utilitarianism, the * pure ethereal sense ' and un- mixed flame of pleasure. And lastly, * whether these things are so, or whether not ; * about a subject so illusory, where the vanity and the very virtues of our nature, oligarchical pride, democratical passion, perturb the measurements of utility ; not slight the advantage of approaching the inquiry in the calm spirit of mathematical truth. Thus it appears that the mathematical method makes no ridiculous pretensions to authority in practical politics. There is no room for the sarcasm of Napoleon complaining that La- place wished to govern men according to the Differential Calculus. The sense of practical genius need not take offence. The mathematical method has no place in camps or cabinets ; but in a philosophic sphere in which Napoleon had neither part nor lot, and which he scouted as * Ideology.' ' (II.) Let us turn now to the econoTuical aspect of the case before us : combination of tenants against landlords, which the present crisis in Ireland^ is thought to involve. Here also the dry light may illuminate the troubled scene of dead-locked unions ; and by an unobvious path lead up again to the prin- ciple of utility as the basis ^ of arbitration. The /air rent is seen to be the utilitarian rent.* ' Bouirienne's Memoirs. ^ The Pall Mall Gazette has persisted in regarding the agrarian as Trades Unionist outrag^es. ^ Read Mr. Crompton in Industrial Conciliation (cf. pp. 82, 83), and realise the need of some principle of arbitration. * Her Majeptj's CommisBioners of Inquiry into the working of the Land COMBINATION OF TENANTS. 135 Here it may be proper to indicate the relation which pre- ceding considerations upon indetermiTiateness of contract are supposed by their writer to bear to the considerations recently adduced by others, in particular Mr. Cliffe Leslie ^ and ^Mr. Frederick Harrison,'^ concerning the irregular and accidental character of mercantile phenomena — as contrasted with what may be called perhaps the old-Ricardian view. The two sets of considerations, ours and theirs, may be mutually corrobora- tive ; but they are for the most part distinct, though they occasionally overlap. Thus Mr. C. Leslie's contention against the equality of profits, &c., in different occupations, does not form any part of these fragmentary studies ; while, on the other hand, o\ir second and fourth ' imperfections have not perhaps been noticed elsewhere. Again, the imperfection of the labour naarket, due to the immobility of the labourer upon which IMr. PVederick Harrison in a human spirit dwells is, analytically considered, a case of out first imjperfection. As there is a certain relation of alliance between these con- siderations and those', so they may be all exposed to the same attack, namely, that the irregularities in question, though existent in fact, do not exist in tendency, tend to disappear, and therefore may be neglected by abstract science. This is a matter of fact upon which the present writer is ill-qualified to offer an opinion. But he submits that the imperfections which it has been in these pages attempted to point out in the case of cooperative association and to trace in the case of trades- unionism, do not tend to disappear, but rather to increase, in the proximate future at least. The importance of the second imperfection — affecting contract with regard to certain kinds of Act of 1870, &c., having sanctioned and supposing settled a * fair rent,' recommend that the ' unearned increment ' which may accrue should, in the absence of first principles to determine the distribution between landlord and tenant, be divided equally between them. Obser\"ing that the contrcut-curoe in this case is the representation of all the possible rents (p. 342), we have here a simple exemplification of the theory that the hasia of arbitration is a point on the contract-curve, roughly and practically as here the quantitative mean, the bisection of the indeterminate reach of contract-curve, tlieoreti- cally the qualitative mean the utilitarian point (p. 55). ' Fortnightly Reoicto, Hermatbena, &c. - Ibid. 1 8Go. =« Pp. 4G, 47. 136 APPENDICES. service — might perhaps stand or fall with the importance o£ Mr. Cliffe Leslie's considerations upon the inequality of re- munerations.* Lastly, if the argument attempted in these pages concerning the indeterminateness of contract is as to the premisses some- what similar to the Positivist argument, it would fain be also as to the conclusion : the jiecessity of settling economical dif- ferences by a moral principle — here clothed in the language more of Mill than of Comte, and disfigured by the unfortunately ugly term Utilitarianiain, which so imperfectly suggests what it connotes. ' Fjw*e 'pour autruiJ' Ketiirning from this digression, let us now sift a little more accurately the light w^hich Mathematics may shed upon Combl- nations. Compare the analysis suggested in a previous part of this work with the general account of ' Monopolies and Combina- tions ' in * Economics of Industry.' The conception of indeter- iiiinateness increasing with the inci'easeof combination comes out perhaps a little more clearly in the mathematical analysis. To bring out the comparison, it is best to consider some par- ticular species of combination. Here, however, occurs the difficulty that the species as presented by the text of these supplementary remarks upon method has not been nxuch, if at all, treated by economists. Let us take, then, combinations of v'orkmen against employers ; a deviation from our subject for which the less apology is due as it is part of the purport of some coming remarks to insist on the essential unity of the dift'crent kinds of contract. Let us consider the argument about Tnides Unions con- tained in the ' Economics of Industry,' book iii. chapter 6, §§ 1 and 2 ; or rather a certain popular argument against Trades Unions strengthened by whatever it can borrow from the passage under consideration. It is submitted with great deference, ^rsi, that the conclu- sion does not follow from the premisses, if the conclusion is that trades unions tend to defeat their own object, the interest of the unionists. The premiss is that the consequence of the action of Trades Unions is a continually increasing * check to the growth,' diminution from what it would have been, of the ' Above, p. 47. COMBliVATIOX OF WORKliEN. 137 wages-and-profits fund, and so of the total Eemuneration of operatives. But, since the utility of the operatives is a function not only of their remuneration, but their labour; and, though an increasing function of the remuneration, considered as explicit, is a decreasing function of the same considered as implicit in labour ; ^ it does not follow that there tends to de- crease that quantity which it is the object of unions to increase — the unionists* utility at each time, or rather time-integral of utility. Rather, it appears from the general analysis of con- tract that, if any effect is produced by unions, it is one bene- ficial to the unionists (presupposed, of course, intelligence on their part) ; and that, if combination is on a sufl&ciently large scale, an effect is likely to be produced. But, secondly, the premisses are not universally true, those of the popular argument at least ; for the Marshall argument keeps * intra spem veniae cautus.' For though it be true that the action of imionists, if they * refuse to sell their labour except at a reserve price,' would be to diminish ultimately the Remuneration, this result would no longer hold if the unionists were to insist, not on a rate of wages, leaving it to the em- ployers to buy as much or as little work as they please at that rate, but upon other terms of employment — a certain quantity of remuneration in return for a certain quantity of work done. If (in our terminology) they proceeded by way of contract- ' Geometrically ; let an abscissa represent time. Let tlie remunerations at each time, as they would have been, be represented by ordinat«s formings a sort of byperbola-shaped curve as to the portion of time at least with whicb we are concerned --from the present, far as human eye can t>ee (not to trouble ourselves about the vertex and the asymptote). To fix the ideas, let the approximate shape be given by ^ — •^^ — 1 = 0. Now let the series d^ b' of remunerations, as it is in consequence of the action of Unions, be ^^ ^'^^ --^-1 = where b'< b.c is positive. Let the present time cr b ' correspond to the point where y' = i/; if y' be new ordinate at any point y bein^ the old. We have then ^ ~ ^ the percentage of loss of remuneration continually increasing. Bat the end of the unionists is not the ordinat<«8 nor the area, but the hedonic integral represented by the solid contents of a certain gHoti-hiffterboloid described upon the quasi-hyperbola. From the nature of tbe functions of this surface it appears that the solid contcutb may be greater in the latter case Uuiu iji the former. — Q.E.D. 138 APPENDICES. cut^e,^ not by way of demand-curve, the presumption is that their action would increase not only their utility but their remuneration. And, thirdly y even if the literary method by a sort of intuition or guess-work apprehends the truth, it can hardly comprehend the whole truth. For it appears from analysis that the tendency of combinations is not only to make contract more beneficial to the unionists, but also to make it indeter- ininate ; a circumstance of some interest as bringing clearly into view the necessity of a principle of arbitration where combinations have entered in. The Mathematical method does not, of course, show to advantage measuring itself with the ungeometrical argmnents of Mr. Marshall, himself among the first of mathematical economists, and bearing, even under the garb of literature, the arms of mathematics ; which peep out in this very place (* Eco- nomics of Industry,' p. 201). A. much more favourable compa- rison would be challenged with the popular economists, who often express themselves rather confusedly, as JVIr. Morley, in an eloquent address,^ points out. Mr. Morley's own opinion is not very directly expressed, but is presumably opposed to * those who deny that unions can raise wages.' Now, it is submitted that this opinion, in face of the Caimes-lSIarshall arguments, can only be defended by the unexpected aid of mathematical analysis. The incident may suggest, what is the burden of these pages, that human afiairs have now reached a state of regular complexity necessitating the aid of mathematical analysis ; and that the lights of unaided reason — though spark- ling with eloquence and glowing with public spirit — are but a precarious guide unless a sterner science fortify the way. But what is all this to laridlords and tenants ? Or can your scanty analysis of combination in general Jje securely ex- tended to the peculiar case of rent ? The reply is : Yes ; the reasoning about the tendency of combination to produce inde- terminateness can with sufficient safety — by a sort of mathema- tical reduction — be extended from the general to a particular case. Symbols are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. Bather the mathematical psychist should be on his guard to » Sitt) pp. 48, IIG. ^ FuHnightly Review, 1877, p. 401. CONTRACT ABOUT RENT. 139 Deduct what is but vanity or dress, Or learning's luxury, or idleness : Mere tricks to show the stretch of human brain. To show, however, this very thing, the substantial unity of the theory of contract (whatever the articles), and also to fur- ther illustrate the general theory, let us attempt an analysis of the contract between landlord and cottier-tenant. We may ab- stract all the complications of commerce, and suppose the corapeiitive field to consist only of landlords and cottier-tenants. Let us start, then, upon the lines of previous trains of Fig! 6. reasoning, and begin by imagining equal numbers of on the one side equal-natured landlords, and on the other side equal- natured tenants. The quantity and the quality, of the land possessed by each landlord are supposed to be the same ; the quantity limited, or more exactly less than a tenant if he had to pay no rent would be willing to take into cultivation. The. requirements and capacities of the tenants likewise are for the moment supposed equal. Let us represent the portion of land owned by the landlord as a portion of the abscissa o x, and the corresponding rent paid by a length measured along the other co-ordinate. And let us proceed to write down in this particu- 140 APPENDICES. Itir case the ftinctions wbose general character has been ahready described. P, the utility-function of X the landlord, is F {y) (subject to a certain discontinuity which will be presently suggested). n, the utility-function of Y the tenant, is ^ (<^ (e) x^y)--^{xe) subject to the condition I—— j = 0. Here ^ as before is a pleasure-function, e is the amount of objective-labour (mus- cular energy or other objective measure of labour) put forth by Y, per unit of land. ^ (e) is the corresponding produce per unit ; a function which, according to the law of diminishing returiis, has its first differential continually positive, and its second differential continually negative, x e is the total objec- tive labour, yp- (x e) the corresponding subjective labour^ or dis- utility ; a function which according to the law of increasing fathjne has both its first and second differential continually positive. Since e is variable at the pleasure of Y, he will vary it (whatever x may be), so that his utility as far as in him lies may be a maximum ; whence ( — y— ) = 0. Let us for convenience \ deJ designate the function which results from the indicated elimi- nation of e by TT (x y). The indijference-cu7'ves of the landlord if he have no other use for his land are horizontal lines ; importing that it is in- different to the landlord how much land he lets, provided he gets the same (total) rent. Let us however for the sake of il- lustration, and indeed as more real, suppose that the landlord can always make sure of a certain minimum, by emplojdng his land otherwise, e.g. not letting it to cottier cultivators, but to capitalist graziers. If then the landlord's income from lands thus other- wise employed be proportionate to the land thus "femployed at a certain rate per unit of land, the landlord's indifference-curve may be represented by y „ and parallel lines (Fig. 6). The indifference-curves of the tenant are given by the differential equation (-7- )<^^ + ( TT" ) ^ V — ^- ^^^ f — j is by hypothesis positive in the neighbourhood of the CONTRACT ABOUT RENT. 141 origin, and negative ultimately ; since x has been assumed less than the quantity of land which Y would be willing to take into cultivation without rent, which quantity is given by the equation (^J.(x,<,)- = 0. And (g = (^^^) = -*'(.^(e)-,, is essentially negative. Thus the indifference curve ascends in the neighbourhood of the origin and descends as indicated in the figure to the point K where f— J tt (x, o)=0. Again, dx^ \dxJ \dy'^J dx dy\dxdyJ \dy) Wa;V \dyJ where (%^^ = {^^^^^ f^M") f^ + (~) T^V + Kdx^J \dxy \dx deJ dx \ d eV \dx) f—-~ ^ -2-|, the last term being equal to zero in virtue of the equation (^)=0. And^=(^)_ And simUarlj for the other second differentials of little tt. Working out the somewhat elephantine formula thus indicated, and attending to the character of the functions ^ i/r, we should find that ' the curve is convex when -~^ is negative. The attention of the student is directed to this, if expanded rather lengthy Tnathematical reasoning^ for which never a numerical datum is postulated, about a social subject. The curves may be (I think) convex at starting. Thus in figure 6, o T t;^ s- is a fair representation of Y's indifference-curve through the origin. The curve through ym and {x' y') represents (part of) another member of the same family. The demand-curve of the landlord is the ordinate at the point x from above the point y^. The landlord will be willing to take any amount of rent for his land above that minimum ! Or, in other terms, the quantity of land which he offers at any ' Compare the reasoning at pp. 35, 36. 142 APPENDICES. rate of rent (indicated by the angle between a vector and the abscissa) is o x. The demand-curve of the tenant is the locus of points of contact between vectors dravm from the origin and indifference-curves. In the figure it is supposed to pass through T, 77, and R ; the last point indicating the quantity of land demanded by the tenant at rate of rent zero. So far as to what may be called personal or individualistic functions. What of the mutual function, which plays so large a part in our speculations, the contract-curve ? The available portion of the contract-curve is 2/0 ''7o» ^he portion of the or- dinate at X intercepted between the in difference-curves from the origin. For it is easy to see that if the index be placed anywhere to the left (it cannot by hypothesis be placed on the right) of this line it will run down under the force of concur- rent self-interests to the hue in question. For instance, at the point T, the indifference-curve of Y is drawn in the figure, and the indifference-curve of X is a line parallel to O^/o ; be- tween which and the corresponding lines at each point the index will continually move down to the line xrj^ (assuming at least a certain limitation or relative smallness of ox). Here, however, occurs the interesting difficulty that the general con- ,.,. (IF dU dU dF . . ,. ^ , , .. r dition , — -— — . -,- -J- = IS not satisfied by the une dx dy dx dy 2/0 ^o* What is the rationale of this ? It may be thus stated. The contract-curve expresses the condition of a certain he- donic (relative) maximwm. Now the condition of this maxi- mum is in general, according to the general principles of the Calculus of Variations, the vanishing of a certain first term of variation. But the general rule of the Calculus of Variations is suspended in particular cases of imposed conditions ; accord- ing to a principle discovered by Mr. Todhunter, which is pro- bably of the greatest importance in the calculus as applied to human affairs. Now the case before us of quantity of land fixed and small constitutes such an imposed condition and barrier as is presented in so many of Mr. Todhunter's pro- blems. In the metaphorical language already employed,* we might conceive the contractors' joint-team driven over the plain up to the barrier 2/0 "^o J ready to move on to the right of ' Above, p. 24. CONTRACT ABOUT RENT. 143 the line if the barrier were removed, but incapable of moving either up or down the line. If the quantity of land were fluent, as in general articles of contract are to be regarded, then the ordinary form of the contract -curve will reappear. That the quantity of land should be regarded as fluent it is not necessary that it should be absolutely unlimited, as in general articles of contract have a superior limit e.g., the quan- tity of labour a man can offer. It suffices that the quantity of land should be large ; more exactly that the angles made by the indifference-curves of Y at each point of the ordinate with the direction o x should be greater than the angles made by the indifference-curves of X. Let us now proceed to investigate the fiTial settlements in the field of competition just described. The first condition' of a final settlement is that the whole field be collected at a point on the contract-curve. The second condition is that recontract be impossible. What then are those points at which the whole field being concentrated recontract is possible ? Those at which p landlords can recontract^ with q tenants. By definition of contractr-curve p and q are unequal. The recontract, or at least the settlements to one of which it tends, may be represented by a supplementary contract-system con- structed on the analogy of that above ' indicated. A little at- tention will show that p must be greater than q when the point 2/0 falls as in the figure below the point 77 to be presently de- fined. The supplementary system then consists of the original contract-curve and a perpendicular to the abscissa at the point ccf such that p'KOX=iqxo x' ', and it imports that the recontract-ors tend to the following arrangement: the p landlords on a point, say x y, of the original contract-curve, and the q tenants on a point x'y' determined by the intersec- tion of a vector through x y, with the supplementary contract- curve or perpendicular at x'. Accordingly, if as just supposed the whole field is concentrated at a point xy on the contract- curve p landlords can * recontract vrith q tenants so long as y ' Above, p. 35. " Each recontracting for himself, of course, the fourth imperfection being not in general presupposed. ' P. 37. * It may be a nice question how far, as a matter of fact, the process of 144 APPENDICES. is such that the corresponding point x' y' falls within the tenant's indifference-curve drawn through x y. The recontract will just be impossible when x' y' is on the intersection of the indifference and supplementary curves. It will appear that the larger is the fraction i- the longer, as we ascend the con- tract-curve moving from 2/0. is impossibility of recontract de- ferred. The last point, therefore, at which recontract is possible, is y^, the (tenant's) indifference-curve through which meets the vector from the origin on the ordinate at a;', where {rtx—\)ox' — 'mox. The points beyond y^ are final settle- ments. By parity it may be shown that the points on the contract- curve in the neighbourhood of tj^, are not Jinul settlements ; but that the system if placed at any of them will move away under the influence of competition between landlords ; on to a point rjm^ the indifference-curve through which meets the vector from the origin on the ordinate at a/' where mox:" = (w,— 1) ox. Between ijm and y^ there is a reach of contract-curve con- sisting ofJiTial settlements. The larger m is the STnaUer^ is the reach of indeterminate cmitract. It is clear that similar reasoning will hold if we suppose our landlords and tenants to be not individuals, but equal- corporate competitive units, in short, equal combinations as in these pages understood. Thus it is clearly seen how the in- crease of combination tends to increase indeterminateness in a sense favourable to the combiners. Clearly seen in the abstract ; and what has been sighted in the abstract will not be lost sight of as it becomes immersed in the concrete : when we suppose the numbers of the parties on each side, the natiures of the tenants, the quantities and qualities of land, the size of combinations, &c., to be unequal. recontract in imperfect competition will involve the conception of rate cf exchange — the tenant for instance endeavouring? to vary any existing con- tract — because at the rate presented by that contract, the ratio of the articles exchanged, he would be willing to take, he demands, more land. It has seemed best in treating of contract in general to keep clear of a conception which is, it w submitted, essential only to one species of contract, that determined by perfect competition. CONTRACT ABOUT RENT. 145 The treatment of different numbers on each side is suggested by the theory of the supplementary contract-curve. The treatment of different natures may be thus indicated in the important instance when the numbers on each side are indefi- nitely large. In this instance, it may be premised, upon the supposition of equality the points r)^ and y^ coincide at the point tjy where the vector from the origin touches the (tenant's) indifference-curve on the contract-curve, and which is accord- ingly on the tenant's demaTid-curve.^ And it is also on the landlord's demand-curve.^ And thus contract is determined by the intersection of the demand-curves. Here we suppose all the tenants to have the same requirements, the same indiffer- ence-curves. "We might conceive the perfectly similar curves which are touched at rf coincidently heaped up. Now, the natures varying, let the curves no longer identical slide away from each other, still keeping in contact with the itself-moving vector ; subject to the condition that the sum of the lands let is equal to the sum of the lands rented. Or more precisely ; subject to the said condition, draw a vector from the origin such that it touches a member of every family of (tenant's indiffer- ence) curves. It is clear that equilibrium is then attaitied. No tenant wants any more land at the rate of rett indicated by the vector, and therefore does not, as he otherwise would, tend to raise the rate in order to obtain more land at the same, or even a slightly increased, rate. And no landlord has an effective demand for more rent, since he has no more land. The preceding investigation applies to the case of different quantities of land. The case of different qualities is one which has not been explicitly treated in these pages. But its treat- ment is suggested by analogy. If, for instance, there are two species of land, x and y, the rent being represented Z ( = Z J + Z y), the contract-locus might be regarded as a cur^^e of double curvature, down which — down from their maximum utility — the tenants are worked by competition, the further as they are less combined. It would be easy, were it relevant, to contemplate from this point of view the Ricardo-Mill theory of the * worst land paying no rent,' &c. ' See Index $uh ptnf Demand-curve. ' A1>»ve, p. 141. 146 APPENDICES. With regard to combinations in the concrete, it may be observed that, while in the abstract symmetrical case equality of distribution between combiners might be taken for granted, we must in case of unequal natures presuppose in general a principle of distribution as an article of contract between members of a co-mbinatimi ; presumably tending to the utili- tarian distribution. It was not promised that this final efflorescence of analysis would yield much additional fruit, though perhaps one who knew where to look might find some slight vintage. Attention mav be directed to the possible initial convexity of the tenant's indiflference-curve. It will depend upon the presence or absence of this property whether or not the tenant can be deprived by competition of the entire utility of his bargain in perfect com- petition ; and the same property presents interesting peculiarities in the case of imperfect competition. What it has been sought to bring clearly into view is the essential identity (in the midst of diversity oi fields and articles) of contract ; a sort of unification likely to be distasteful to those excellent persons who are always dividing the One into the Many, but do not appear very ready to subsume the Many under the One. Mr. Cliffe Leslie is continually telling us that nothing is to be got from such abstractions as the ' desire of wealth and aversion for labour,' feelings different in different persons, and so forth. Yet he would surely admit that there is a general theory of contract, of the bargain between individuals actuated by those abstract desires, irrespective of the diversity of their tastes,* and all the information about particulars which Mr. Cliffe Leslie desiderates. Thus confining our attention to the simple case of two ^ sets of contractors, Xs and Ys — it may be Producers and Consumers, Employers and Employed, Lenders and Bor- rowers, Landlords and Tenants, International 'traders ; pre- scinding this simple case for convenience of enunciation, we micrht write down I think some such (not the most general, but quite generalisable) laws of contract — contract qualified by competition. I. Where the numbers on both sides are indefinitely large, • See p. 145. ' See above, p. 17. COTRACT Df GENERAL. 147 and there are no combhiathiis, and competition is in other respects perfect, contract is determinate. II. Where competition is imperfect, contract is indeter- minate. lu. Cceteris paribus, if the nmnbers on one side are de- creased (or increased) each of the (original) members on that side, in perfect competition gains in point of utility (or loses) ; in imperfect competition stands ' to gain (or stands to lose). TV. In perfect competition, if, cateris paribus, the supply on on«^ side — meaning the amount of article offered at each price — if this whole scale of offers is increased on one side, whether froiD increase of numbers on that side or otherwise, then the other side gains : and an analogous proposition is true of im- perfect competition. The last two theorems have important exceptions mostly requiring mathematical analysis for their investigation ; those, for instance, which may be presented by Mr. Marshall's second class of curves (if the introduced change might cause a jump from the neighbourhood of the first intersection of demand- curves to that of the third). The preceding and the many similar abstract theorems are im- portant as well as those historical inquiries on which Mr. Leslie ^ lays so much stress. It suffices to say that on a form of the third theorem J. S. Mill propounded his counsels to the wage- earning classes, and shaped and re-shaped the policy of millions upon a theory of capital-supply, at first affected with what may perhaps be called the special^ vice of unsjonbolical Economics, at length * corrected, and after all ^ imperfectly because ungeo- metrically apprehended. It is easy with Caimes protesting against the identification of Labour with commodities to say : ^ * Verbal generalizations are of com^se easy,' and the equation of Demand to Supply is * what any costermonger wiU tell you.' But the noblte coster- monger would not perhaps find it so easy to tell us about Mr. Marshall's Demand-curves Ckbss IL, or other exceptional cases, ' Seep. 43. ' There is room for all, as Prof. Jbtods points out in a temperate article in the Fortnightly Review. ' Above, p. 127. ♦ Revieio of Thornton. * Above, p. 5. « Leadintf Principlff, Part II. ch. i. 5 2. L 2 148 A1'PE.\DIC£S. such lis those which are presented by imperfect competition (trades unions, &.C.). Of course it is right to notice differences as well as simila- rities. It is proper to attend to the differentia, as well as the genus of Man ; in particiilar to dwell upon the high moral attributes which distinguish him from other animals. But we must not allow this distinction and the associated moral senti- ments to oppose the unifications of science and our reception of the Darwinian theory. It is very right and proper with Mr. Frederick Harrison ' for high moral purposes to insist that the labourer has not a thing to sell, that the kibour-market is an unhappy figure ; to dwell upon the differentiae * of the contract about labour. But we must not allow ourselves to forget that there is a sense in which the labourer equally with any other contractor Aos a thing to sell, an^ article; that there is an abstract general mathematical theory of contract. The need of this sort of generalisation is not imaginary, and an example of the apparent deficiency in this respect of the highest philosophical, without mathematical, analysis may im- pressively conclude these somewhat unmethodical remarks upon method. iMr. Sidgwick discussing the bargain between employer and workman — with less than his usual clearness indeed, yet at least by opposition to the, as it is here submitted, perfectly correct statement of Walker upon wages — states that in un- restricted competition (presumably in what is in these pages called perfect competition) the bargain between employer and workmen is as indeterminate in such a laboiu-market as the bargain' between a single employer and a single workman (our case a). Which is contrary to the first law of contract. To have improved upon the statements of Mr. Sidgwick would surely be a sufficient vindication of Mathematical Psf/rhics. ' Fortniijhth/ Reuieic. '' Hut not to exagjrerate tlieiu, nf» Tliornton perhaps does when he speaks lit" the contintinl perishinrr, the loss duririfr every moment that its 8ale is (h'lftved, of labnrir. For is not tlie same true o^ capital and anything which is for hire — of the use of a cab, -is well as the ljOx)ur of the cabman ? ^ Fortnifjhthj Review, 1865. INDEX. ACT Action ^'momentum-potential), 11, 14,89,91 Airy, 86-7 Aristotle, 55, 75, 89 Article of contract, 1 7 Bain, 60, 62, 92, 99, 126 Barratt, 58, 65, 79, 80, 81 Beccaria, 117 Bentham, 52, 98, 117, 128, 129, 133 Buffon, 77 Burke, 78, 79 Butler, 82 C'AiBNES, 44, 94, 119, 126, 127, 133, 147 Capacity, 57-59 Capital, 31-33 Combination, 19, 43-48 Competition, 17 Comte, 85, 91, 109 Contract, 17, 21 Cooperative Association, 17, 49 Cost of Labour, 121 Courcelle-Seneuil, 30, 44, 109 Coumot, 40, 47, 83 Crompton, 134 Cunynghame, 96, 121 Dafwin (G. H.), 91 IND Darwinian, 74, 132 Delboeuf, 60, 62 Demand-Curve, 38-42; Appen- dix V. Determinate, 19 Doubleday, 72 Equality, 81, 99 Euclid, 57 Fawcett, 44 Field of Competition, 1 7 Final (settlement), 19 Fourier, 59, 81 Galton, 70, 72, 132 Gossen, 94 Green, 76 Grote (John), 76 Hamilton (W. Rowan), 11, 94 Harrison (Frederick), 135, 148 Hegel, 97 Helvetius, 128 Holyoake, 52 Hume, 78 Indeterminate, 19 Jndifference-curvc, 21 150 INDEX. JEV Jevons, 1, 7, 21, 30, 31. 33, 34, 39, 61, 83-87, Appendix III., 98; Appendix V., 118, 120, 126 Lagrange, 10, 13, 94 Laplace, 7, 62, 134 Leslie (Cliffe), 47, 135, 14G, 147 Lewes, 13 Lewis (Comewall), 126 Maltiiusian, 68, 73 Marshall, 5, 26, 30-33, 39, 42, 46, 92, 96, 105-109, 118, 125, 130, 137, 138, 147 Maximum-Principle, 9-15, 24 Maxwell (Clerk), 1 3, 76, 80, 90, 91, 100, 101, 123, 134 Means, 57 Mill, 5, 12, 52, 54, 75, 81, 82, 95, 98, 118, 126, 129, 132, 145, 147 Morley (John), 138 Napoleon, 134 Newton, 97 OVTEN, 81 WUN Recontract, 17 Rent, 135-146 Ricardo, 135, 145 Rousseau, 78 Saturday Reviewer of Professor Jevons, 83-86 ; Appendix V., 118, 120, 126 Settlement, 19 Sid^wiek, 16, 32, 33, 52, 62, 76-81, 93, 96, 98; Appendix IV., 124, 126, 127, 148 Spencer (Herbert), 12, 51, 72, 75, 103-104, 122, 133-134 Stewart (Balfour), 14 Stewart (Dugald), 51 Stranch, 92 Sully, 58, 72, 100 Tait and Thomson, 4, 7, 85, 124 Thompson {on Wealth), 59, 129 Thornton, 5, 48, 148 Todhunter, 6, 55, 92, 93, 111, 112, 142 Ti-ades-Union. See *■ Gombina- tion.' Variations, Calculus of, 109. Ste ' Todhunter ' Venn, 61 Perfect (Competition), 18 riato, 4, 51, 94, 126 jPre/erence-Curve, 22 Price, 31, 48, 143 n. See De- mand and Supply Priestley, 117 Walker {on Wagas), 54 Walras, 5, 26, 30-32, 40, 42, 46, 47, 105, 119, 125, 127 Watson and Burbury, 6, 10, 90, 123 Wundt, 7, 60, 62. 75 UNIVERSITY OF r« " ' "V <^ t iL/fOKiVIA E7r- ' Angeles 'ast datf UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY Los Angeles This book is DUE on the last date stamped below. Mt^f^. , ■^^KW' oeci ft^ ifSW-lh" FEB 2 7 1990 ,!f, MA«:'©s*99I APR 29^ APR 21 m 3 1158 00005 4444