\ 
 
 [From The Mail and Empire, 3rd April, 1897 ] 
 
 CANADIAN WHEAT. 
 
 • 1 \' .■.(', 
 
 To the Editor of The Mai! and Empire : 
 
 Sir, — In February, 1896, I wrote a letter, which you were good 
 enough to pubhsh, continuing the calculations concerning the production 
 and distribution of wheat in Canada, which I commenced in the 
 Statistical Year Book, and afterwards elaborated in an article in the 
 Canadian Magazine (September, 1894), and I now forward you further 
 figures, for which I trust you will be able to find space, bringing my 
 calculations down to the end of September, 1896, being the close ot the 
 export year following the crop year of 1895. VVithout taking up too 
 much room by repeating figures already published, I may say briefly that 
 for the years 1 891- 1894 inclusive, I had calculated the net quantity of 
 wheat available for distribution at 173,457,983 bushels, from which had 
 to be deducted 45,542,418 bushels for export, 15,852,095 bushels for 
 seed, and 109,810,393 bushels for home consumption, and that while 
 the crop of 1891 exceeded the distribution by 11,024,800 bushels, 
 distribution during the following years exceeded the crop by 8,770,600 
 bushels, leaving an apparent net excess of crop over distribution of 
 2,254,200 bushels, but that, in consequence more particularly of the bad 
 condition in which some of the grain was harvested in 1891, this excess 
 only existed on paper, and that at the time of the harvest of 1895 there 
 was practically no wheat in the country. The crop of 1895, however, 
 was the second largest crop in the history of the Dominion, and 
 amounted to 57,348,400 bushels, or, say 51,613,600 bushels available 
 for distribution, which, after deducting 32,189,900 bushels for seed and 
 consumption, left an excess of crop over distribution of 19,423,700 
 bushels. The net exports during the twelve months ended 30th 
 September, 1896, amounted to 11,438,876 bushels, leaving still in the 
 country 7,984,826 bushels. The crop of 1896 was the smallest since 
 
1889, and did not exceed 38,000,000 bushels, or, say 34,200,000 bushels 
 net, which, added to the previous surplus, gives a total of 42,184,800 
 bushels for distribution, from which have to be deducted ^ ,300,000 
 bushels for consumption and seed, leaving a balance oi 9,884,800 
 bushels available for export. These figures, therefore, indicate that, 
 under existing conditions, the exports for the.twelve months ending 30th 
 September, 1897, will be in the neighbourhood of nine million bushels, 
 this quantity being liable to be reduced by a continued fall in prices, 
 which might lead farmers to hold their grain, or increased by a correh- 
 ponding riSe, when other breadstuffs might to a certain extent be 
 substituted for wheat in home consumption, and, if the demand was 
 very active, a larger proportion of the crop of 1897 be sent out of the 
 country during the last quarter of the export year ; but apart from this 
 latter contingency, the amount exported is not likely to be very far from 
 the quantity named, and perhaps will more probably be under ihan over 
 those figures. It will readily be seen that, with no reserves to fall back 
 upon, two successive harvests like that of 1896 would wipe out any 
 exportable surplus altogether, but there is not at present any likelihood 
 of such an event, for the probabilities are that, given a favourable season, 
 'the crop of 1897 will exceed any previously recorded, for not only will 
 the area under wheat in Manitoba and the North-VVest be larger than 
 ever before, but there has also been a considerable increase in the area ' 
 under tall wheat in Ontario. 
 
 I have now carried these calculations down from 1882, and in view 
 of the extent to which actual conditions have of late years coincided 
 with my estimates, there would seem to be sufficient ground for assuming 
 that the system adopted is fairly correct, and the deductions therefrom 
 tolerably reliable, the most uncertain factor at the present time being 
 the production in the North-West Territories, and it is to be hoped that 
 it will not be long before some attempt is made to collect trustworthy 
 statistics for those districts. It is satisfactory to find events thus 
 establishing the accuracy of one's calculations, and it is also satisfactory 
 to find one's opinions, originally advanced with a certain amount of 
 trepidation, corroborated by those who, from their position, learning, 
 and experience, are entitled to be listened to with deference and respect. 
 
 In the Statistical Year Book for 1887, and in several successive 
 issues, I called attention to the fact that wheat would m all probability 
 never again obtain its former prices ir any length of time, except under 
 
the influence of untoward circumstances, such as a general war, or failures 
 of harvest; and in the Canadian Magazine for September, 1894, I said 
 that *' the outlook for wheat is most unpromising, and the opinion of 
 the writer, which has remained the sr.me for some years, is that the low 
 price of wheat has come to stay, and that nothing but war, or a succes- 
 sion of bad harvests, can do more than temporarily appreciate it. And 
 such appreciation would probably only result in a still further lowering 
 o prices, for the quantity of land immediately available for wheat is now 
 so great, transportation facilities and rates are so constantly improving 
 and cheapening, and the knowledge of the condition of the market is 
 becoming so universal, that any appreciation in the price would almost 
 invariably result in over-production." I now find my views sustained in 
 a recent number of the "Royal Journal," where Sir John Lawes and Sir 
 Henry Gilbert, undeniable authorities on this questioi, in a paper on 
 the production of wheat, say : — " It cannot be doubted that there remain 
 throughout the world great inherent capabilities for increased production, 
 which would rapidly be developed with rising prices. Such indeed is 
 the extent of this capability tnai the encouragement of higher prices 
 would, by increased production and increased export, tend to keep the 
 supply fully up to the demand, and so far to react adversely to any 
 considerable and permanent rise. No doubt under the influence of 
 extensive war. involving powerful nations and large populations, there 
 would be more or less rise in prices for a longer or shorter period. But 
 independently of any such calamity, or other abnormal contingency, 
 such is the extent to which the wheat-producing capabilities of the world 
 have been opened up and show possibilities of development, that it 
 cannot be said that the circumstances indicate much prospect of a 
 substantial and permanent rise." 
 
 It has often seemed difficult to understand why so many of those 
 whose opinions on the subject are entitled to the most wseight have taken 
 so long to make up their minds as to the cause of the continued low 
 price of wheat, and to become convinced that it has not been due to 
 any appreciation of gold or depreciation of silver, or to any outside 
 circumstance whatever, but has been governed by the ordinary rules of 
 supply and demand, and that the opening up of new fields of supply, and 
 the bringing of them nearer to the markets of de- land by increased 
 transportation facilities, have resulted in so definitely lowering the price 
 that only 'he contingencies above referred to can now materially affect 
 
It, and that under no circumstances Is any appreciation likely to be 
 permanent, or of any prolonged duration. Because the chances, 
 however, of wheat returning, if only temporarily, to its former values are 
 apparently remote and at any rate uncertain, the possibility of the 
 necessary contingencies arising to bring about such a return m\M not be 
 overlooked, any more than must the existence in the North Wdst of the 
 finest undeveloped wheat fields in the world, The population there is 
 at present lacking, and the immediate inducements to immigrate are also 
 apparently lacking ; but a marked advance in wheat values would 
 probably supply both one and the other more quickly than any other 
 scheme that could be devised ; and, in the meantime, it might be borne 
 in mind that when the appreciation comes, as come no doubt it will 
 from time to time, it is not likely to be lasting, and that it will be those 
 already on the spot who will be the best able to take advantage of it, the 
 soil and the climate offering good opportunities for the successful 
 prosecution of mixed and dairy farming during the intervals. 
 
 Yours, etc., 
 
 SYDNEY C. D. ROPER. 
 
 Ottawa, March 31.